“Homophily is the tendency of people to form bonds and connections with others who are similar to them. Derived from Greek words meaning "love of sameness," it explains why friendships, marriages, and groups often form between people with shared traits like age, race, gender, beliefs, or background.”

Birds of a feather flock together is an English proverb. The meaning is that beings (typically humans) of similar type, interest, personality, character, or other distinctive attribute tend to mutually associate.

What does this have to do with Kim Hellberg and football? Quite a lot, actually. Managers like Hellberg are idealists - they see football differently from the ‘normal’. Hellberg himself has name-dropped Marcelo Bielsa and Roberto De Zerbi as his two main influences in “pure football” terms when it comes to his outlook. His assistant David Selini said on the ‘Nordic Football Podcast’, “Our football is very much principle or concept driven, rather than system and formation driven”

The concept in question that Hellberg is most aligned to is La Nuestra, meaning "our way" or "ours", which one of Hellberg’s main influences, Marcelo Bielsa, was a byproduct of the pioneer of the new Argentinian way in the late 70s by El Flaco César Luis Menotti. Bielsa in the early 90s with his Newell’s side had clear similarities and continued to do so throughout his career. It’s an idea originating from Argentinian football which aligns with the outlook of football being player driven. Goals without borders describes the ideology of La Nuestra as

“The core of Argentina’s La Nuestra football identity is improvisation. Not randomness, not lack of structure, but the belief that the player with the ball can create something beyond the diagram. In this view, football is not fully controlled from the bench. It is interpreted by the player.

That is where the mythology of the Argentine number 10 becomes central. The enganche, the playmaker between midfield and attack, became one of the most important figures in Argentine football culture. The role asks for vision, timing, disguise, and nerve. It is not only about passing. It is about pausing at the right moment, seeing the field before others see it, and turning pressure into opportunity.”

There are branch-off concepts like this one in question with Fernando Diniz and José Alberto López - not every concept has the same defined principle within itself. Hellberg’s niche is the wide five-player rule, I like to call it. Where the idea is diagonal - in fact, in Boro’s win away at Sheffield United last season, you hear on the broadcast Hellberg himself shouting “DIAGONAL DIAGONAL” because a core idea of his is to go against rhythm and momentum vs a defensive block with five players in proximity to one another.

You can even hear this in his training session that Boro put out.

“Don’t just play around them. Go in central! Yes, that’s the central play! Don’t just play around; it doesn’t help us! Yes, that’s the quality. The central combinations! Being brave!”

“I need players who are always aware of making decisions in every situation. You can be far away from the ball ‘changes body shape’ - that’s what we need and that’s what we’re training on”

The idea is simple; the execution isn’t. Synergy, synergy, synergy. Understanding the player next to you is the most important - and in that moment of play, the opposition doesn’t understand you because it goes against their rhythm, their mental process.

Here is Hellberg again talking about central combinations. I really can’t stress enough what he says here and why it plays a part in the conclusion of this article.

To fully understand what a Hellberg team is in it’s max, it’s:

• Diagonality

• Relational combinations

• Playing against the momentum

• Pass and move football

The best version of this was the already-mentioned Sheffield United away performance. And this is where I bring to the table the crux of this article, which is the debate I’ve somewhat started within Boro Twitter about the idea of a ‘Hellberg player’. I think people have misunderstood what I’ve meant by that, and all of the above plays a part. Firstly, I want to point out that managers, 99% of the time, don’t adapt their concepts, but the players within that concept change. And if they do stray from what they know, it all falls apart. Hellberg has been coaching, to a large degree, the same way for over a decade.

Take his IFK Värnamo side as an example. Back three build with the left back tucking in, the right back free to decide whether to stay wide or drift inside, with the rest of the players close to one another.

Now we move to his Hammarby side, and the concepts and principles are the same, with a few tweaks, including adding a proper winger to the system in Dukanovic. Left back tucking in, players close to one another.

“We never really change, we just think that we do.”

The common theme that has brought Hellberg the most success throughout his career has, on paper, been a 4-4-2 setup with at least four players who have midfield-like tendencies. Players who make short, quick passes, who understand timing and space, and who have similar skill sets and think similarly. Managers do not adapt well. Arguably the greatest ever manager, Pep Guardiola, tried to adapt his concepts by signing players with physicality and athleticism over technically first players, and that cost him a title. Coach what you know, not what you don’t. I’m bringing up the aforementioned Sheffield United game again - look at who started and the instincts of those players. Morgan Whittaker is not my type of player; he’s incredibly frustrating, but one thing he is excellent at, and why he will always get picked, is his understanding of combinations with his teammates. Conway’s first goal perfectly encapsulates this.

• Ayling on the ball

• Browne and Morris close in diagonally to each other

• Ayling line-breaking pass to Whittaker

• Whittaker, McGree and Conway close to each other

• One-touch pass from Whittaker to McGree

• Whittaker carries on the run

• McGree, touch pass to Conway

• Conway finishes

Now I want to fast-forward to now, especially the first half against Lincoln. It could not have been further from the concept Hellberg has been coaching all his life, and it shows why adapting to the players you have doesn’t work and never will for this style of manager. Boro were deservedly 1-0 down to Lincoln in the first half, and post-match he said, “I think, to be fair, I was not happy with my first half. My structure in the first half was not good enough. I should have helped the players better, so I think that’s on me a little bit and how clear I could have been, because it also needs even more [clarity] when you have a lot of new players.”

I watched the first half back for this, and there were no players in close proximity, nobody occupying central zones, nobody on the same wavelength in the final third.

The players in the line-up do not make sense for this kind of football, this concept. And that’s the point - you can’t teach every player this concept; you either have it, or you don’t. Herbert A. Simon was an American psychologist who coined the theory of bounded rationality. This theory holds that some humans do not have the brain power to make optimal decisions, and they’ll always pick “good enough” - humans make rational choices that are limited by their mental limits, short time, and missing facts. You can apply this to football and what separates good from very good, very good from great, great from elite. You’re constantly making decisions, and the best decision within a concept always has to be the optimal one when the idea of the manager is to be on his wavelength.

In the second half, it’s rectified almost immediately. Players are in close proximity to one another, there are more passing options, far more chances are created, and they go on to win the game. The best player on the pitch? Riley McGree, and arguably Morgan Whittaker (second half only), because they understand what it means.

The Hellberg player is highly technical and intelligent, can play one-twos, pick up space when required, slow down and then speed up tempo, and play passes inside. This is what I believe, and this is why I say players like Kyle Joseph (clunky, technically limited), Ashley Phillips (not the best central passer), and Max Arfsten (100mph player) are not the style of footballer that would fit the ‘idea’. I don’t think Vitek does either, but I think you can get away with it as a keeper. It’s still another string untwisted on the guitar that Hellberg can’t play, even though he said he really likes GKs who can play out. Lankshear is the most obvious 9 for this system, so don’t attach my name to that opinion I’ve seen. This argument is in comparison to MY belief that Boro are capped at the top 4 with these signings rather than being able to win the league. You’ve got a Hellberg team at 80% rather than 100%. To me, Boro have to have five midfield-like players on the pitch at all times. More players like McGree, more players with an understanding of one touch/space movers. Speed of thought is quicker than any player. I can’t for the life of me understand why Boro haven’t put money down for Harry Amass and Ryoya Morishita. Two players who, technically and tactically, are top top level, and it’ll cost less than £7m.

Rather than doing outright tactical and performance breakdowns of every match, I want to write pieces on how the match was either won, drawn or lost. It’s a shorter format, and you won’t get bored to death reading the nuances of football - short, snappy and easy to understand is what I’m going with, and to cap each Substack at a maximum of 1,000 words.

But firstly, to set the scene, there’s been a lot of noise outside of Watford this season with predictions, fan unrest, lack of ownership interest, constant soundbites by the hierarchy, and then failing to deliver any of what they’ve said - and that is a problem regardless of the result and performance today. But, as I’ve been saying for just over a month now, the performance and result today vs Southampton should not be a surprise to anyone who actually watched. The starting XI that was out today - 8 of them started the first pre-season game against Boreham Wood on the 11th of July. The shape you saw then was identical to the shape you saw today - the difference was that the execution was much better because, well, that’s what preparation is for. The signings of Udinese players have also come into criticism, again for the wrong reasons. If you think multi-club ownerships are wrong for the game, that's completely fine - but if you’re dismissing these players because they’ve come from Udinese, then you’re looking at it from the wrong angle. I don’t, for one second, believe this was in the owners’ thinking; by the way, it’s my logic of it all. But if you’re bringing over Zemura, Bravo, Payero - they don’t need adaptation periods for the league, nor the team, because they’ve already played together hundreds of times- then you add the way they fit into Dionisi and his way of playing; it’s not a coincidence they all know what they’re doing. But let’s get into the game.

How the match was won.

Watford, off the ball, were immaculate in the first half. Southampton had only 6 shots, 3 of which were blocked outside the box, accumulating to an xG of 0.3. The key to this approach was blocking the central passing options and essentially forcing Southampton to give the majority of the possession to left-back Ryan Manning.

Tonda Eckert mentioned in his post match press conference about the positional switch for Leo Scienza in where he moved centrally. He said “We knew that we were going to have some spaces inside today, especially with the way that Watford jumps with both of their sixes and we wanted to have that space for Leo today to go one against one.”

The issue that Southampton faced was Watford combatting this - although Bove did ‘jump’ at certain moments, Nabizada would drop back rather than push up and would pass over Scienza to Kyprianou when the ball went from left to right. Scienza didn’t have much joy because of it. Southampton just couldn’t get it through or go around, and when they did Watford recovered quickly.

In possession, Watford still kept the core structure positionally from pre-season. Kyprianou drops to receive, Bove stays on the right side ahead. Zemura/Bola and Maamma are close together, and the right side of Traore stays wide, ready for the switch, with Nabizada offering the option diagonally.

The difference was the actual play in possession. It was almost a decoy to lure Southampton in. In pre-season, Dionisi was fuming with the amount of long balls we’d play and wanted everything to be played out - be calm and composed, stay controlled. Not today - Watford were direct for a reason; 19% of passes were long. Why? well Southampton more or less left two at the back, and that’s it. Go long, if you don’t win first contact, flood forward and pick up the second ball.

So whilst Eckert saying it was them playing poor passes to give goals away might be true, Dionisi and Watford planned for something to happen. Manning was targeted, makes an error for a goal. Southampton flood men forward and defend with fewer numbers at the back and that leads to them conceding.

There was a notable drop-off in the second half - partly because Southampton changed the way they played with the ball. Downes went to a wide centre-back position, Azaz would come deeper to receive, with Bree and Matsuki being closer together in possession to play quick passes to one another. But who gives a shit, as it didn’t work - they had the ball more and scored through a slice of luck with the ricochets - but apart from the goal, they didn’t create much for their attackers, bar the chance for Hardwood-Bellis at the dying embers of the game. A well-deserved win for Watford, who should have scored more and won by a more comfortable margin, especially given the chance Bravo had in the second half after a wonder trivela pass from Othmane Maamma. To end this, I thought Kevin Keben was man of the match for me. Took responsibility on the ball to the best he could, was aggressive in his duels and defending. Would like an upgrade there of course, but today he was back to the Keben we were all excited about after the start of his campaign last year.

Anyway, enough of the fucking about, let’s get right into it.

24th. Lincoln City.

Great achievement last season, getting 103 points. But… BUT, the Championship is a massive step up. The squad is looking thin and lacking quality in almost all areas, bar maybe the centre-forward position. To me, the squad should be built around a back three. It’s the best way to make up for quality and the most tactically flexible if you have multiple players who can play either centre-back or wing-back. For example, would it not be most logical to have Bradley as the middle centre-back, Coubis on the right, and someone like Elder on the left, with Honohan as the left wing-back, and you could easily play Hackett-Fairchild as the right wing-back, and have your two best 9s in the Diplodocus joining from Sweden, with Rob Street playing together. Rotate them with House and Melia too. The elephant in the room is Skubala going to Bristol City - and whilst there’s a touch of Thomas Frank going to Spurs and in-house coach Keith Andrews taking over feel to it, that Brentford squad was still in the same division; this is a step up in quality. Losing Jack Moylan is also a huge blow. Someone will have to fill the void of his 17 goal contributions last season. Will need to have a big final three or so weeks of the window.

23rd. Charlton Athletic.

The vibes around the place seem a bit off with the news of a potential sale, though not as chaotic as first feared. They stayed up last season with more Jones magic, and I think he wants to play a 4-2-3-1 and will start with that. Lloyd Jones is great; Karlan Grant is a nice pickup and return. I like Sonny Carey and Harvey Knibbs as players who will get you goals. Charlton, as ever, have some talented attackers in their squad like Micah Mbick, Daniel Kanu and Miles Leaburn, but it’s all a bit meh. I’m looking at Kaminski and thinking, what on earth are you still doing at this level? It was a crap signing to begin with, and he now looks like he has an obsession with wormholes - he’ll get down and struggle to get back up. Need to upgrade him or at least start Mannion. I also look at the midfield and struggle to see any ball progression or control. I see a lot of endeavour, and there’s going to be a lot of reliance on Karlan Grant, because I don’t think any of the strikers will get into double figures. I don’t think their keeper is good enough to win them points unless Lloyd Jones levels up again and heads everything away. This is a team that will eventually revert to a back five and look to grind out wins.

22nd. Bolton Wanderers.

I don’t think their first eleven is that poor for the level. It’s quite solid defensively and in midfield, but I think my both boxes rule comes into play here when the talent advantage is at the bottom in comparison to the rest of the league. I don’t trust their keepers to be good enough for the level, and I don’t trust their attacking players currently to score enough goals. They reek of a side that scores about 40 but concedes around 60. I’m also not entirely convinced by Schumacher at this level either. His teams have a knack for shooting a lot but not actually creating enough clear-cut chances. If they want a chance of staying up, to me they’d have to bring in a starting keeper, an entire new front three, and a number 10 if they’re going to stick with the 4-2-3-1 system. Watson is a nice pick-up, though; I’ll be interested to see if he can handle the step up, as he’s been a player who’s been highly rated throughout his time in Scotland. I’ve been quite surprised with the lack of business done so far given the clear deficiencies in the squad.

21st. Preston

A bit like Charlton, the vibes at Preston seem off. The captain of the club, Ben Whiteman effectively walking out of the club to join Wrexham. I think they’ll stay up simply because they’re the Everton of the Championship. They have too many players who know how to get the job done at Championship level. They’ve also got one of the best keepers and midfielders in the league too. There’s just zero depth and perhaps not enough money to plug some of those gaps. I would say if they replace Whiteman with BDK from Oxford, then they’ve got an upgrade there. It’s all like.. boring init?

20th. Stoke City.

Should not be 20th. But they’re forever hovering around here, and every time I think they’ve got a good squad, they stink the place out. Cannot be arsed going in depth with them because it’s rinse and repeat the last few seasons. We all know Steve Cooper is taking over at some point, so get on with that.

19th. Blackburn Rovers.

I think a lot of people will have Rovers going down, and although I do have them close to the drop, I really can’t see it. I know the last few jobs for Mowbray haven’t been smooth sailing, but I do think there are mitigating circumstances, mostly health issues. But if you genuinely look at the Rovers squad, there are some very good players here. Morishita, to me, could easily play at a top-half side, same with Cantwell and Alebiosu. You’ve got a great young prospect in Tom Atcheson, surrounded by leadership to nurture him in Wharton, Carter and McLoughlin. They have solid enough pros in the squad. But the main reason I think they should be fine is the forward line. They’re not the most flashy, but they will get goals. Ohashi is good for 8/9, Jorgensen the same, and I’m putting my stocks in Andri Gudjohnsen this season too - would not shock me at all if he gets the Mogga Magic and scores 12+ goals this season for a bottom-half team.

18th. Cardiff.

This might be a surprise to some? I’m not really sure how their fans are feeling this summer. But I’m looking at their squad and thinking there’s nice players here n there but I’m not sure quality wise they’re on a level where they can finish higher than say 12th. I like them in both boxes with Trott and Salech - I think they’ll do enough to keep them away from danger or anything like that. Just a comfortable season for Cardiff without ever worrying about going down. Let’s not forget the point differential last season between 18th and 13th was 5 points. So I’m not saying Cardiff are bad by any means. Just think it’ll be a really comfortable season for them. I also think their style of play might be an issue with the step up in quality. But BBM is good enough where he can adapt if needed I suspect.

17th. Portsmouth.

I think Pompey are another team that a few will have going down, but I can’t see it. Their underlying numbers last season, from Jan onwards, had them roughly a playoff-level side. Of course you have to dig deeper and see why they weren’t picking up the points they were supposed to. First one being defending from set pieces. I don’t have a clue what was going on with them, but the game against Derby summed it up for me - absolutely everyone all at sea; if an old fan was around in the Titanic days they’d have got PTSD. Another one is Colby Bishop missing sitter after sitter after sitter. Granted, they’ve addressed that with the signing of Marko Milovanović, who’s a big fucker up top who scores goals with his head and can cause centre-backs chaos to leave Segecic to pick up the scraps. He fits their chance creation ideas. But the injuries they get every season on top of what I mentioned regarding set piece defending, I have to have them around here, but I could see them finishing higher.

16th. Wrexham.

Yeah, I said it. This is purely from a managerial pov. The entire season, my model has them around 17th best team performance-wise last season. Squad-wise, they should be nowhere near here, but I don’t trust Phil Parkinson to have his team overperform for a second season running in the Championship. What he’s done for that football club is nothing short of legendary but gut feeling here is they have a poor season. There’s always one shock per year and this is the one shock. The signing of Danny Imray is a great one - as I said, player for player they’re play-off level. But good players don’t cover a bad setup; only top ones do for an entire season, and even then it crumbles at some point. I could be so so wrong here, but they faced 1.4 xGOT from January onwards last season, which only four teams faced higher quality shots. Granted, the football da’s won’t like this but let’s aaaave it. My worry here is they sack Parkinson and then go for someone like Mousinho, and they obviously don’t finish this low.

15th. Watford.

We’ll be top 8 up until January, then fall away completely and finish 15th. We have too many good players to go down, albeit light in some areas. I don’t trust us in both boxes, but everywhere else I think we’re sound. Louza and Irankunda are leaving, and they of course need to be replaced, and we’ll pull out one player from our arse. But the vibes, happiness and intent from what I’ve seen in pre-season says to me we’ll be more than fine this season. Expect Maamma, Bravo, Bove and Vata to have big seasons this year. The chaotic owner in Gino might fuck us, but I think we have enough where it’s going to be a boring season. Honestly, I’d Gary Barlow that if it means we keep Dionisi for an entire season. Although if we bring back Mfuni, Alleyne and bring in at least a ball-playing midfielder and competent striker. Bollocks to you all, top 8 babyyyyyyy.

14th West Brom.

I truly don’t know. They’re the one team I can’t get my finger on. Some very good players in the squad. James Morrison, who came in and had them playing as a playoff-level side via underlying numbers and results. But I get the Tom Cleverley syndrome here. Come in when things are bad, but are they really? And lifts players’ spirits; the numbers look good and then once the following season comes around, being the man from the start is a much different kind of pressure. I can’t offer much else to say because yeah, I don’t have a scooby

13th. Birmingham City.

Fourth best home record, fourth worst away record last season, ending the season 10th, so 13th would be a poor season for the fans and the owners, I assume. Reason being for me is that, although I like Chris Davies, I just don’t trust him to get it right enough. I also don’t trust their keeper or much of their forward line to stick the ball in the back of the net enough. Even though I can see Priske showing what he’s capable of, the away showings last season put me off too much. Davies, for me, rightly or wrongly, is in first manager-sacked territory. Also too many players in the side where I think do they have enough? the likes of Laird, Cocherane, Vicente, Roberts, Stansfield, Fujimoto. They’re good but are they good?

12th. Swansea City.

I have a working theory that managers influenced by Red Bull concepts will start the season fast and then fade in the latter stages due to not having enough depth to keep up the intensity. I think the signing of Eli Just is one of the best in terms of fit for the team and ability in general. I like the signing of Opoku too, as he’s pure output in what he does - albeit he might need a season to adapt. The reason I have them 12th and not higher is depth and having Burgess or Welsh start at centre-back. If they can add a better quality player there and bring in another high-level central midfielder, I can see them being higher. My model last season, when Matos joined, had them as the 11th best team in the league. I think that’s about right for now.

11th. Bristol City.

Really like their business so far. Ballard and Tolaj are, on paper, a good partnership - really like their midfield depth too—creativity, set-piece threat, intensity in the spine of the team. Where I think they’re capped is in the full back department and wide areas. I’d like to see more goal-scoring threat if they can bring that in and two first-choice full backs - because I trust the keeper to save shots and I trust the strikers to score goals. It’s how much can they prevent the chances being conceded from the flanks with little depth there currently - plenty of time to address this of course. I’m also interested to see if Skubala uses Ballard and Tolaj together, because he has to, right?

10th. QPR.

I think some might be surprised with me having them this high. The big difference for me is they’ve now got two keepers who have functioning hands. I also think their talent levels in the squad are higher than people maybe think, albeit it does kind of need lightning to strike more than once. Kone has had his first season bedding in and I now expect him to kick on and take that extra step that I believe he can. Burrell is a born goal scorer so he’ll no doubt contribute. Chair is creative, Saito and Poku are 1v1 players who make shit happen even if the end product might be annoying. I also think there’s a chance Harvey Vale has a breakout season too. Then you’ve got the reliable guys in the middle in Madsen, Varane and Kamara in front of Dunne and Edwards. I think this is a team that’s smartly put together with a head coach that knows how to navigate young talent.

9th. Derby County.

Could easily make the play-offs, but I have them slightly missing out due to the absence of Agyemang and their midfield being a bit meh, and I include the signing of Ozoh in that. I’m not saying Fraulo, Travis and Ozoh are bad players by any means; I think all three are very good complementary midfielders next to someone like a Morris, Louza, Grimes, Neghli. Also think they could potentially do with another right back, as I personally don’t think Max Johnston is an upgrade on Joe Ward, and what the latter can offer you is, at least on occasion, great crossing delivery. I think the level is up from last year and goals only coming from potentially Morris and Clark - that I can hang my hat on- is something which I think will mean they fall just short.

8th. Sheffield United.

I know there’s a lot of doom and gloom around Blades - I’ve even seen some say could they go down. Perhaps I’m not close enough to the situation but I’m looking at their team now, and their first XI is still really good. I know Cooper had a down year last season, but that was the first of his career. I expect him to be back to his best this season and establish himself again as arguably the best keeper in the league. They’ve also got two strikers in Bamford and Campbell, while the latter can be frustrating - know how to put the ball in the back of the net. O’Hare is very good at what he does - and then Peck and Arblaster are a nice pairing should the latter be able to rediscover his form. The expectation is that Hamer will leave, and he will be a significant loss and needs to be replaced. Tanganga is also a top player for the league, along with Siriki having something about him should he stay. They undoubtedly need more depth, but this is still a good side.

7th. Millwall.

Millwall are a smart club and will sustain playoff pushes as long as they continue to do what they do. The mad thing is, I’m still not entirely sold on their team. So this, outside of West Brom and Wrexham, was one I wasn’t sure of. My both boxes rule with Millwall doesn’t pass the test. I think Crocombe is pretty meh and I’m not sold on any of their 9s despite some good goal records last season. Do I really trust Coburn to be a proper bagsman? Absolutely not. I do trust their ability to prevent shots, though, and their midfield three and back four are up there with anyone’s in this league when it comes to endeavour, ability and synergy. I do fully expect Neghli to establish himself as one of the best midfielders in the league this season. The main reason I have these 7th is that the thing I can’t quantify is they just know how to win and get it done.

6th. Norwich City.

Going back to my model - in terms of just performance-related numbers not including the scoreline, Norwich ranked 6th when Clement took over last season. Without a pre-season, without a window to bring in players he likes. Their number 9 options in terms of talent are a joke. Makama, Toure, and Kvistgaarden would all start for most teams in the league outside the parachute payment sides. Granted, the latter hasn’t shown what he’s capable of in a Norwich shirt; the boy has bags of ability. I’m not particularly sold on their defence and keeper - Kovacevic, while he is capable of great saves, also has it in him to do something mad like rabona it in his own net or something. I think McConville, from what I’ve seen, Is much better than Darling but doesn’t seem to be ahead of him in the XI yet. Fisher is good; I think they perhaps need another left back despite the signing of Yongwa. McLean and Mattsson are top for the level, has everything you want. Will need another winger now that Ahmed is out for the season, but I trust Clement to have these inside the playoffs.

5th. Burnley.

Out of the relegated teams, Burnley feels like the most unsettled. I don’t really want to spend too much time on the three that came down because it’s boooooring. But they can potentially field a front four of Edwards, Amdouni, Tresor and Flemming, which is insane - especially if a miracle happens and they manage to get Tresor back to his Genk best. Perhaps hiring someone who’s got a history of developing Belgian talent will do that.

4th. Middlesbrough.

Hellberg for me is the best coach in the league. Their issue last season was having the worst keeper in the league, and now they’ve brought in one of the best in Vitek. They also went long spells of breaking down the classic ‘low block’ but couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net. Rather than me giving my thoughts on why I’m a bit confused by some of their signings, I’ll instead try, from my pov, to explain their thought process. Hellberg is a coach who wants full intensity in the attacking line - that’s what you can’t fault Kyle Joseph for. The latter is also a chance magnet in the box too, and is a similar profile to Antonsson, who scored 20 for him in Sweden. Hellberg is also all about, in terms of possession, keeping players close and moving it quickly. The signing of Berhalter to replace Hackney makes sense for that in the middle due to A) his synergy with Morris already and his ability to play one touch. Arsten is the most intriguing player because he’s outright not a left back - his defensive ability is borderline nonexistent. However, when he played off the right for Columbus, he drifted into central positions to receive the ball and has the speed and 1v1 ability to stretch teams with his movement too. He’s also naturally athletic and intense in his game. Yeah, Vitek and Phillips can’t pass as well as a Hellberg team might want to, but they can prevent goals and play simple passes. If they can get a more intense winger on that right side to replace Whittaker, you’ll see a relentless Boro side. Then of course you have Will Lankshear, who’s now adapted to life in the Championship and someone who should put the ball in the back of the net frequently.

3rd. Southampton.

#StopKony2012 #BanTonda2026

2nd. Wolves.

Wolves fans will be looking at their squad thinking it’s shite. The rest of us are like the Office meme where the woman walks into the pub, and Brent turns around and says oh for fuck sake. How are these here with that quality. Fucking Andre and Jimenez in the second tier, alright man.

1st. West Ham.

These fuckers could genuinely run a front four of Bowen, Castellanos, Adingra and Parrott. I don’t know why they want to spend £20m or so on Engels mind you; he’s not even a standout player for Celtic. Should win the league quite comfortably zzzzzzz.

For a bit of fun - top goal scorer: Yousef Salech.

Main man for a Cardiff side who should be fine this season, is a chance magnet. The one they look for, on penalties (I think) a set piece threat. Think he’s around 50/1 and 66/1 on some betting sites too.

Firstly, we have to look at his role at Vancouver.

He ranks second for passes attempted and first for passes attempted in the final third. Which is a roundabout way of saying he’s more or less the first receiver from the centre back and the first passer when trying to sustain pressure. As his heat map shows, whilst he’s active in deeper areas, he’s more active in the right half space receiving and passing the ball - and his energy off the ball too, which I’ll get into in the match analysis. He is their key player - takes all the set pieces, takes most of the responsibility with the ball and leads the press at times too.

vs LAFC.

Passing-wise, he favours simple bounce passes and keeps it ticking over. Nothing crazy in terms of breaking lines. He stays calm and controls the tempo in possession. What is noticeable straight away is that he almost always plays the ball in the direction he’s facing. He won’t take the ball on a half-turn; he won’t do a fancy shimmy or drop a shoulder to buy time. His instinct in this game is to retain the ball. There are multiple times when he could play a diagonal pass to a teammate in space, but he stays risk-averse. He’s not much of a scanner either before receiving a pass - he’ll have a couple of looks over his shoulder to see where his teammates are, and the next pass usually goes wide - or he’ll play it back to the defender to keep the ball moving. Positionally, he’s fluid - has a dovetail partnership with Cubas, where if one goes, the other drops in and vice versa. But for the most part stay quite close together in possession.

Physically, he’s very endurable without being athletically gifted but still athletic enough he can get through games in high intensity. Will run and run and run both ways. You’ll see him push up to lead the press at times, and you’ll also see him rush over to cover space as quickly as he can. He does have a bit of an edge to him as well- he isn’t afraid to stick one in on you or fly into a challenge, as we saw in this game. Because he’s energetic and keen to get involved, his tackling style is erratic. He’s not the strongest in duels and can be played around fairly easily when he goes steaming in.

Corners and free kicks. Jesus. This brother can take a good one of these. He can get height and whip, he can clip it in like a golf shot with spin or he can fire it like a missile to the front post. Had a look to see if the numbers back up this game - he leads the MLS for chances created from set pieces with 25 and set piece xA of 2.78.

vs Inter Miami.

Looking at his passing - again, like what happened in the match against LAFC - he’s risk-averse. He keeps the ball flowing. If players are in proximity to him, he’ll play that pass either first time or take a few touches to settle the game down and go from there. The team moves up the pitch when he does. He does make one pass, which is short but disguised through the lines and takes out four Inter Miami players in the process. He can do it but only when he has an extortionate amount of time - his first instinct when challenged and put into a dangerous area is to play backwards. Which is fine; not every player has to be Imran Louza or Matt Grimes in the Championship; sometimes prioritising the ball is better than risk in silly areas. You recycle, then go again.

I watched ten games of him, but using three as an example in this breakdown as they’re the only three I could get clips of - but his long passing leaves a lot to be desired at times. Either under-hit, over-hit or not accurate. Of course he’ll be able to hit one perfectly; he’s a professional footballer - but I’d say his weakness in his passing bag is punch passes centrally and anything over 20 yards. The more I watch him, the more I get a similar vibe to James Ward-Prowse, just not as good from dead-ball situations.

Off the ball I think this game perfectly encapsulates what he’s about. Duracell bunny who’s eager to get involved with mixed results. Busquets lures him in and shows him levels and takes him out of the game with one drag-back, but then moments later runs back to cut off Messi and get the ball back for his team. My initial thoughts as to why he doesn’t win that many duels, just over half (55%) is because he doesn’t lower his shoulders or bend his knees enough to be strong, instead he flies in with limbs everywhere. It’s a details thing that can be fixed through simple coaching and video analysis for him. Bove at Watford a good example of how to do this.

His free kicks, again, were very good deliveries bar one. As I said earlier, it’s like a golf shot where you chip it with spin out of a bunker. Give him an aerial threat, and you’re good for 5/6 goals.

vs Saudi Arabia.

I wanted to see if he behaved differently for the US men’s national team with better players surrounded by him and up against inferior opposition and that’s what Boro will be up against most weeks. And he didn’t really - albeit he was used in multiple different roles in this game. First as the deepest midfielder, then the most advanced and then back to being the holder. Truth is he didn’t really do anything differently - although did increase tempo and look for 1/2s a bit more. But again faced the way he played and was simple in his 5/10 yard passes and completed them. Again, he just wanted to keep the ball most of the time.

His long passing again.. yeah, it’s not his best but it’s not the end of the world. He’ll keep trying em though.

Of course he gets an assist from a dead ball. James Ward-Berhalter. If you haven’t seen it, go and look at his free kick assist against Mexico. It’s a peach.

Boro fit and English football fit.

Both ticks in the box here. I’m a big believer in synergy in football and natural instincts being the most unguardable thing of all. Relationships on the pitch where only those two brains can see what’s happening or about to happen are what create unpredictability in your teams. Perception + instinct = undefendable. The fact Morris and Berhalter are best friends might seem nothing, but it’s a massive advantage in a midfield two. There’s no bedding-in period needed as they already understand each other. Look at Mo Toure and Irankunda for Australia, for example - best friends, and they don’t play together at their club side but naturally against Turkey they knew what one another were going to do. Berhalter is naturally intense off the ball and has physical traits, especially upper body, where he’ll fit in fine. He’s a fine, not spectacular, passer, good energy off the ball and will run backwards just as much as he does forwards. He’s a very good complementary midfielder for Morris. My challenge to him now is to be able to use his set piece ability in open play. You have an unbelievable delivery from your right foot - get into those right half spaces and deliver a KDB-esque cross into the box, because you can. And who scored a header from a cross like that multiple times last season? Will Lankshear. Boro didn’t struggle to break down low blocks; they struggled to convert chances, and they’ve added a 9 to help that, and now they’ve added a different dimension from dead-ball situations. Berhalter won’t replace what Hackney can do as he was carry first - but what he can do is make the team more stable and more controlled. He’s not a better player, but without sounding too big-brained, I think this has the potential to be a better partnership. Morris will, I think, go into the Hackney role, and Berhalter will push up and be more involved in the final third. Adding leadership, responsibility, intensity, and someone who can do pretty much everything to a 6/10 level is a no-brainer for £1.5m.

First half.

Contextually, in this game, Sassuolo are set up to give Matić the ball. Everything goes through him, and he sets the tempo. He sits just in front of the back two, sometimes dropping into a back three with the two CBs splitting. Muharemović, with the ball at his feet, hasn’t needed to be expansive; he doesn’t need to carry the ball or punch it through central areas because, well, he doesn’t need to. What he instead opted for was crisp passes wide with the perfect weight. Whilst these players were wide open to receive the pass, centre-backs don’t always get the weight of the pass right, and in this first half, the Bosnian got it out of his feet and played it more or less every time to whoever was on the left side of him. There was one hairy moment, in which he panicked and tried to overcompensate with a pass, but the ball into him was a hospital pass regardless.

Defensively, from a physical battle standpoint, he’s not been tested in this first half up against Nkunku, added to the fact that Milan went down to 10 men early on with Tomori getting sent off. But there are still interesting details you pick up on the centre-back when he’s defending crossing situations and turnover situations.

Crossing situations: He’s proactive. Rather than looking to hold a line or to stay compact with his teammates, he’s predicting where the ball will go and makes moves to go into that area even if the ball doesn’t arrive there, but has quick footwork, which allows him to readjust his position within the box too. He’s also constantly looking over his shoulder to get a feel for the attacker, and where he might go rather than wait and then go with, he wants to be a step ahead. Now that could come with its own problems in a quicker league like the Premier League because there’s a fine line between proactive and rash - the Sassuolo man in this first half was on the good side of that.

In the 10th minute, I think it perfectly encapsulates him as a centre back. Two quick scans behind him, waits for the Milan midfielder to wind his leg back and attempts to read the pass diagonally into Nkunku - the stance of Muharemović in this specific play was telling.

He’s got an eye on a runner within his proximity to take that out of the game for the opposition.

His 1v1 defending when an ongoing Milan player stood out the most this half. Going back to the footwork, he kept the same speed whilst turning his body to keep an eye on the ball. Knees bent, lowered shoulders, eye on the ball, then make a decision, and every decision was right.

Second half.

This was a formality in the second half, especially on the ball. He kept it simple and ticking over; 5-10 yard passes here and there. No carries, no central passes, all sideways and short to keep the ball.

In terms of reading the game and when required to intercept, he did that well. Throughout the entire game, he’s got this part of defending correct.

There is something I have noticed, though, and this might only be applied to this game, as I’ve not watched him extensively beyond this 90-minute match. But he drops very deep and regularly plays forwards onside. I don’t know if that’s because he’s personally noticed a move the attacker makes, or his default setting, also known as a bad habit, is to retreat to the box and close the distance from the keeper to delivery of the ball. He gets away with it vs Milan, and he nearly misjudged the flight of the ball because he dropped so deep, but it’s something that, if it stays consistent in his game, will be a hindrance to his team if he gets a move to a better quality league than Serie A.

Vs Genoa

First half.

Defensively, he struggled. When being a proactive defender, you have to make sure your judgment is correct because you isolate yourself as the only defender in that moment. He got caught under the ball a few times, and he’s tried to get in front of his man to intercept the ball with grass ahead of him = the forward getting away and either winning a foul or a potential chance on goal. He’s not absolutely rapid, but he’s got large strides, which allow him to catch up and make last-ditch tackles to make up for an error. This time, because the line Sassuolo was playing was a high one, he had more ground to cover, which he couldn’t get back in time.

His passing again, outside of one nice clipped ball to a runner, was more often than not safe to the left back. He values retention over risk, which is fine for a centre-back.

As I mentioned vs Milan, he tends to drop deeper in crossing situations or in settled possession for the other team. In this first half, he dropped back quite a fair bit to anticipate a run beyond him or a cross close to the keeper. I can only speculate why he does this, but I would guess that he doesn’t have to engage in a physical battle and can clear/mop up cleanly. The issues will arise if he keeps players onside too often. He again, though, hasn’t been tested aerially in this opening 45, as Genoa have two small 9s who prefer to run in behind rather than contest for high balls.

Second half.

I’ll be honest, not much happened between the two sides, especially going forward - a lot of huffing and puffing. The Bosnian on the ball was again, favouring retention over expansion. However, there was one pass he made in the second half in which he hit a perfect long ball to Pinamonti, who was ultimately flagged offside. But in the main, he doesn’t go for these passes when they’re on.

There is also another moment where the space opens up for him, and he carries it with speed. Again, another thing he just hasn’t done so far. But he then panicked because he hesitated on the pass and ended up passing it backwards quite awkwardly.

More of the same in the second half defensively. He’s heavily ball-focused, so he rarely watches the player in proximity to him which can sometimes mean he’s ball watching because well.. he is. He’s got some habits that have reared their head in both games vs Milan and Genoa. Firstly, dropping deep and secondly, overcompensating to try and win the ball, which = a foul, chance conceded and space in the middle. He’s shown to me so far he’s a live on the edge centre back. He also hasn’t been tested aerially yet, either in this second half. Former Leeds striker Caleb Ekuban came on and didn’t jump at all, so that was pointless.

Vs Lazio

First half.

By far the most impressed I’ve been of Muharemović so far. He still isn’t that dreamy progressive passer centrally, but he, in this first half, played lovely, punchy passes to the wingback or winger and utilised his clean long ball passing technique to the opposite flank. The technique is there, the weight of his pass is there, the confidence to change pass selection isn’t there - to me, that’s easily fixable under the right coach. If you have the tools to do it, but can’t, that’s simply a mentality issue that can be solved through comfort.

You can tell manager Fabio Grosso is properly leaning into the central defender’s instincts of being aggressive in his actions. In this game, he’s been tasked with man-marking Guendouzi and following him as soon as the ball reaches past the halfway line, and doing a very good job too. Winning the majority of duels with his style of defending, again, being low shoulders and watching the ball in proximity. Because he can shift his body left to right quickly, his size, power and understanding of how to use this means he is very good at winning ground duels.

Second half.

In possession, there are two passes I want to bring up. One of them is his favourite, which is the punch pass to the left back. I’ve mentioned this many a time before, but if he can do this at that speed and that weight, there’s again, no reason why he can’t make these passes to central players way more often.

Do this more!!! Granted the gap is wide open for him to do it - but he has the ability in his locker, and the more he does it, the weapon he could become in his team would go up tenfold. To be able to play passes like that, in two different but effective zones of the pitch, makes your team much more adept at getting into good attacking areas of the pitch.

I think what is abundantly clear is this man is very, very front-footed in his defending and doesn’t really attempt many aerial duels, or contested aerial duels for that matter. He wants to get ahead of the marker or predict where the ball is landing when the ball is again in settled possession. This game was played in September too - so there’s a slight difference in his approach to runners in the two games towards the end of the season. When the ball was central, he would step up; when the ball was in a deep crossing zone, he would drop back deeper than his line. He’s all about anticipation. He nailed it vs Lazio, it was a fairly complete performance from the centre back.

Vs Juventus

First half.

I want to point something out first, and it’s something I’ve noticed he does - while it’s not a hindrance, so to speak, it might be an issue if he moves to the Premier League up against more aerially dominant attackers. So, in three aerial contests he’s made in this game, he’s jumped with both feet. I’ve spoken about this before but jumping with both feet limits your spring, and you can’t get to your true leap quickly enough, and you’re capped at a certain height. Now, given he’s 6’5, it’s not a huge issue - but if the timing is wrong, which will happen, and he’s not exactly colossus in the air, hovering around the 64% mark career-wise, which is still good, but it’s in a league where most of the 9s are fairly small or not that type of striker. I still expect him to win the majority of his aerial battles, but this is just something to keep an eye on.

He’s also standing deep again. I think at this point, this is what he does, and it’s his way of combating what he perceives to be his own weakness of defending the box in a battle and wants to get ahead of the play.

Passing-wise, it’s what you’d expect. Kept it simple 90% of the time and then showed his long passing ability, and playing it wide under the perfect weight ability, too.

There’s a moment of defending I really liked from him in around the 19th minute where he’s way high the ball all the way, and following the run of Boga - realises that’s covered and stops running himself to turn and block the potential shot of Weston McKennie, which leads to Sassuolo clearing the ball. Split-second decision-making like that is always a big green tick in my box.

Second half.

Sassuolo are very good at shutting games down. Well, from the games I’ve tuned into anyway. This second half was effectively them getting an equaliser and then Juventus playing pointless passes wide and doing pretty much nothing with it until they got a dubious penalty, which Muric saved anyway. He was back to his usual task of man-marking players that came into his proximity and jumping as soon as the ball was played.

There are two clips in the second half that I want to focus on that I enjoyed. They’re combined, but the first example of the 23-year-old’s defending in a nutshell is the opening 13 or so seconds of the clip. Ball goes wide = he drops deeper. Realises the ball will be recycled back centrally and then steps up. Starts to follow the run of the spare man (15) on his left as he sees Garcia is on the wrong side, but then scans again to see the ball going the other side - jumps up again and closes the angle so a ball can’t be played through and Sassuolo clear. The second clip is him retreating to the box as Juventus are on a break - again becomes deep in the box - notices Weston McKennie behind him free as a bird, but also sees Jeremy Boga making a near post dart and decides to follow that to then eventually get a big long touch and clear the ball.

Player conclusion.

Physically, Muharemović is a match for anyone. Whilst his style of defending is not to get touch tight or engage in being rough with the attacker, he can hold his own when it comes to simply holding an attacker or barging them off the ball. Because of the nature of this style, though, he can be caught wanting when he’s aggressive and charges out, which in a better league like the Premier League, will expose some of his decisions to be front-footed, and that idea of the line being either proactive or rash, you tip that in the rash favour. I think if he can harness that slightly more, and rather than looking to dive in, stay on your feet and usher the danger away. He does struggle against more shifty attackers, too. Kenan Yıldız and Vitinha for Genoa both got down the sides of him by making him go side on to the ball and quickly shifting the ball outside.

He’s good in both boxes, though. Despite my concerns about jumping technique, ultimately, he’s a massive fucker that’s fairly agile for his height, and his anticipation of where the ball will be is top-notch. I do have some concerns when he goes to drop deep and be behind his line = conceding goals from in-swinging crosses if he doesn’t get the timing right of his jump, and keeping attackers onside in the process.

His on-ball is what bugs me the most. I’m not saying he can’t progress the ball - it’s more than that, and he’s got the ability to do so, but doesn’t. He’s a crisp, clean passer. He’s Sassuolo coded with the ball rolling, studs on the ball, fizz it wide. Good-not-great long passer too (inconsistent, but again, technique is there), but he doesn’t do it. It’s the same with his carrying. You’re rangy, powerful and have speed; you have it in you to be an almost complete centre back. Maybe that comes with time, maybe it doesn’t. You know what it reminds me of. The song “Tears in Heaven “ by Eric Clapton. Unbelievably written from the words to the choice of actual music, but the voice is a bit eh - but everything around it is great. We need this Bosnian brute to improve his voice.

Move to Leeds United.

As far as Struijk replacements go, I think they’ve done well here from a player profile standpoint and a cost standpoint (£34m package). Performance-wise, I think he’s currently a touch behind Struijk, but, crucially, I think he can go beyond what the Belgian-born defender can do. Main reason being the fit into the team - again, that’s not me saying Struijk was a bad fit - but I do think in this current iteration of the Premier League, and where this Leeds side looks to be going, Muharemović is an upgrade. At Sassuolo, he played in a back four. But to me, to get the best out of him, he suits a back three down to a tee. Has cover behind, so he can be aggressive in his defending. Means he can play his favourite pass to the left wing back who’s high and wide on the left flank, and has the option to play a clipped/long ball to the left winger down the line, which he also likes to do. Football will always be about hiding weakness and extrapolating strength, and putting him on the left side of a back three does this. We already know Leeds are building a team that can handle set pieces too, and that’s something Muharemović, as I’ve mentioned, is great at. You know, when you see a signing, and you think, yeah, don’t overthink it, just get it done, it makes perfect sense? This is that. Well done, Leeds.

@geo_tsar: 🚨🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 #WatfordFC has made significant progress in negotiations with #Lugano to sign Uran Bislimi❗️

🇨🇭The Swiss midfielder has reached a verbal agreement with the English club for a four-year contract and is awaiting the approval of the transfer ⏳

Reportedly, Watford are keen on signing Bislimi - a 26 year-old midfielder playing in the top flight of Swiss football for Lugano. I want to touch on multiple things before I get to the player himself and my small breakdown of him.

Firstly. When recruiting into the Championship, you have to look at the style of the league and what works. Midfielders that tend to do well here are either excellent ball players, or duel monsters. You can’t get away with being just physically or athletically gifted, you need an outlier to be consistently good and compete at the top of the league. Or, in some cases, have an extremely lucky season where god is on your side. If you look at the standout midfielders last season in the division - Imran Louza, Aiden Morris, Hayden Hackney, Matt Grimes, Casper Jander, Azor Matusiwa, Camiel Neghli; I can go on. These are all players who are either top of the range playmakers or their engine/ball winning ability sets them apart, or both. Don’t be fooled by thinking guys like Grimes and Louza aren’t athletic, they absolutely are - they take contact and ride challenges better than most when pressed. People confuse power with athleticism too much - Luka Modric is an extremely athletic player for example. Back to Championship modified though, being just fine is fine, but you’ll struggle to make an impact - I don’t think people realise how much quality is needed in this league to be good. The Championship is better than a lot of nations top leagues. For example; Hearts nearly won the SPL last season and they’ve recently signed a player from Forest Green and a player from York; neither of them are anywhere near good enough to be a competitor right now in the Championship.

Secondly, and arguably more importantly - does he fit any of the roles that Dionisi likes to use? GianLuca Nani mentioned in the club podcast that part of the reason they hired the 46-year old Italian was because he uses a 433/4231 system and the job he did at Sassuolo and Empoli was a big factor in their decision making process - while Dionisi wasn’t the first choice for the club (Niels Frederiksen), or the second choice (García Pimienta) - they do have a similar way of playing system and characteristically - whether that was calculated or pure coincidence we’ll never know. At Sassuolo, Dionisi said he wanted to carry on what De Zerbi had done previously but make them slightly more direct but still dominate the ball. They weren’t hellbent on playing through the middle - but played to Scamacca’s strengths of going quickly into him and playing off from there. In his first seasons at the club - I Neroverdi averaged 55.3% possession, while at Empoli he averaged 54.6% possession where he won Serie B. That two year window was the best his teams have played and that’s what I want to focus on - mainly Sassuolo though as that’s where he used wingers, something at Empoli he didn’t have.

In the 21/22 season - Dionisi used two players as starters every time they were fit and then had three rotational options depending on the match.

• Maxime Lopez

• Davide Frattesi

Two rotational:

• Matheus Henrique

• Hamed Traoré

All three roles were defined too:

Defensive midfielder: The main protagonist. Most touches, most passes of the team, the one they look to.

Central midfielder: Harmoniser. Supports the main melody (cast = midfielders) and compliments the two of them. Basic passer, more off the ball work to why he’s in the team.

Attacking midfielder: Floater. Has the freedom to roam about the pitch and get involved heavily in the play, especially linking wide players and the 9. Rotates with the central midfielder too - fluidity.

Out of possession:

• Front five (3 attackers + 2 midfielders) go man to man

• Lone defensive midfielder pushes up but focusing on the ball

• Back four narrow

Again focusing on the midfield specifically as that’s where the Swiss midfielder could come in - Dionisi puts more emphasis on funnelling the ball into central areas for the midfielders to win the ball back. The CM and AM need to have energy off the ball and be able to cover ground quickly. The DM needs to be switched on and alert to runners whilst also knowing when to close the distances ahead of him.

Uran Bislimi.

Bislimi has been used in various roles for Lugano. As a holder, more advanced or a wider number 10. I watched five 90-minute games of his this season to get a gauge of what he is and his instincts in what he likes to do in those roles - and then compare it to how Dionisi likes to use his midfield and see if he fits into that.

Mobility/Awareness

To be blunt with you - he lacks both big time. Regularly ball watches in deeper zones, doesn’t commit in duels, and doesn’t use his body upper or lower when in duels either. Mobility wise he plays in one tempo - a fairly slow midfielder who doesn’t have the athleticism required to play up n down. Averages around 42% win rate in his career in a less physical league - adjust that to Championship and he’d be more than likely bottom for midfielders. On the ball watching, he’s just not a defensive player, he’s not comfortable being the (defensive) midfielder. He does that thing which loads do where he stands still and turns when the ball is moving around him.

DM receiving location actions.

He’s not alert enough in these moments. The bulk of it highlighted vs St Gallen in a league match. His timing is either late or he can only run in the direction his body is facing, he can’t open his body up to receive naturally. Scanning wise, there’s a difference between scanning > play and scanning > to see if the opposition are close. I’ll get onto that in his passing.

Passing.

What stands out with his passing is he’s very combination led. Over 5-10 yards he likes those cute passes, give n go’s. But he also likes to slow the tempo down by taking a lot of touches. The way he passes the ball is consistent in weight - he won’t punch it through the lines, if anything it’ll be under-hit; his strength isn’t to be progressive in this way. He drifts wide, mainly on the left side, and looks to combine with the winger/fullback. What I mentioned earlier regarding his scanning - he does it to get information of the opposition to see where they are rather than to see what his next move will be - because in space instead of taking the more risky approach, he’ll turn back and play it to the centre back. He’s very right footed too - he’ll play short passes around players with the outside of his boot rather than use his left. He treats the ball like it’s a vase and he can’t drop it otherwise it’ll smash.

With all the information and context around said player - there’s three roles up for grabs. Does he fit and is he ideal with any of them?

Main protagonist: Lots of touches and passes, very progressive and pass first player, naturally intense, can play at multiple angles, is switched on to runners and can cover grass quickly on the turnover. No

Harmoniser: Complimentary midfielder, mainly in the side for out of possession work, ability to go up n down, combine play quickly, nimble in their movement. No

Floater: Will also have a lot of touches, but the more creative type in the final third. Will sometimes drop deep to receive from the full back, will push up in the press and look to win the ball back quickly but also play quickly too. No

Conclusion: Bislimi to my eye isn’t Championship coded and doesn’t fit in what my interpretation of what a good Dionisi team looks like. The Swiss midfielder can only play at one pace, which is fairly slow. He’s a good combination player and nice footballer that would work well in a side that will have a lot of the ball but won’t be in a fast paced league - he doesn’t have enough gears in his mobility or athleticism and is weak in duels. He doesn’t fit English football and he doesn’t fit this Dionisi team in my opinion.

So, my idea of being successful is normal to most people, most being the operative word. Everyone is on the same wavelength, working towards a set goal. No shortcuts, no sudden changes of plan. Basically, no funny business is going on. But what I would say is the idea of how to get to that goal is always subjective, even if the result you wanted is agreed. Previously, I’ve stated that I want the next head coach to have already shown certain things, so there aren’t any unknowns. However, the more I think about it, the idea simply has to align with the squad’s play style. Appointing someone who’s won promotions before, when that manager has had a form of talent advantage, is nonsensical. Watford appointing someone who’s a long-ball specialist who prioritises survival football is also nonsensical. League table appointments are a fast-track way to do the opposite of what you think you’re doing, and that’s not get the results you’re after.

Starting with the academy. The club has done a very good job restructuring the age groups. Bringing back former players like Lloyd Doyley, Paul Furlong, Adrian Mariappa, and Dan Gosling — the latter two now involved in the first team alongside Charlie Daniels, who was the U21 coach previously. So there’s an obvious friendship and solid working foundation that is already there and continued to be built by Richard Johnson (another former player). To me, it’s unfounded not to take this as a factor for the next head coach of the club. We’re no longer a parachute payment team — we’re a lower mid-table side financially in the second tier. The time to utilise the academy for what it’s there for is now. These young players are the money savers, the game breakers. Should they be good enough and have a chance to impress, they have to be coming into a stable environment rather than the toxic waste dump that it has been for years.

The players. Watford’s squad is a bit of a mismatch. It’s mostly made up of players who want to run and get after the ball. There are a couple like K9, Irankunda and Baah who aren’t as intense in their defensive work and would prefer to conserve their energy in attacking areas, which is fine, most speedy players do that. But it’s also a big rebuild job, should what I’ve been told be what they want to build from. Of course, things could change, and some of the loan players could come back. But mostly, this Watford squad is suited to fast, counter-attack football. Bove and Kyprianou have been in midfield, where their side is set up to dominate the ball; however, Roma and Peterborough back then were in the top 6 of their division in terms of talent. Watford are back where we started prior to Gino buying the club.

Recruitment. Don’t just buy players because you think they’re good. Buy them because they fit what you already have. Look at what players are in the squad and buy someone that compliments their playstyle, either next to them or ahead of them. Think of it like a puzzle; every piece needs to make sense for the picture to be perfect. Otherwise, you’ll have a puzzle that’s meant to look like Michelle Keegan, but instead you’ve created Ian Dowie.

Culture. This summer has to be a complete reset. Sell the players you want to sell, but the head coach has to be looked at as a key part in everything. I don’t mean he becomes Sir Alex Ferguson of everything, and he is the club. I mean, make it clear to the players this is our guy; if you don’t like it, you can go. I don’t want to see the next appointment to be someone on a one-year deal, even two years will annoy me. I want the next head coach to have a three-year deal and be given time. Be realistic with your process, too. Budget speaking, Watford are roughly around 15th. Don’t expect to reach your goal after one season. Let us know it’s a three-year build, and we want to gradually get there. The best teams that are set up for long-term success know what they are, they act accordingly — they overachieve because the trust and foundation they’ve built with coaches, academy and recruitment is solid. Let the academy coaches, coaching staff and head coach build something together, get some synergy into everything you do.

The main candidates (1-3).

1. Jon Dahl Tomasson

My number one pick for the job. Has a history in youth football, has a history in the Championship, and has a history of overachieving with younger players. Favours attacking football with speed. Has no issue dipping into the academy to pick players, too. Fits the idea of what this squad would enjoy. The wide players are the goal scorers, or if things don’t go well, can change shape and turn Vata into a 20 goal player like he did with Sammie Szmodics.

The only thing that will stop him from taking the job is Gino. I don’t think there’s ever a better fit than JdT for where we are right now. He’s a former big-name player too, so the players will get a bit of a spring in their step.

2. Eirik Horneland

A fluent English speaker. This one is a bit left field, but it’s mainly due to his time at SK Brann. He managed to build, over time, a relentless attacking team that had multiple modern ideas that our young group of players would understand. 4-3-3 style that is high intensity on and off the ball. He’s very much in the mould of a Jurgen Klopp-style coach. His stock is currently extremely low due to being sacked by Saint-Ettiene, despite every underlying metric having them as the best team in the league, despite results not showing that. But two years ago, this coach was voted as one of the top 10 managers in world football. This one is very Kim Hellberg led.

3. Ryan Mason.

This one is purely Tom Cleverely theory. He will have the players onside, he will have the place an enjoyable place to be and whilst he did have his flaws in terms of player selection issues, game management. I don’t believe he would have been sacked if he had Selvik in between the sticks. We want to build, we want to allow managers to grow. Ryan Mason with a good coaching staff, could be a risk worth taking. Again, not everything is underlying numbers, but West Brom were around the 9th best team, but weren’t picking up results; partly due to him, partly due to bad keeping and finishing too.

The reason I haven’t included Struber in this is that he’s never played with wingers. He’s always been a back-three guy with wingbacks or 442 with attacking midfielders ‘wide’, and I don’t think that aligns with what we have.

Middlesbrough vs Southampton is one of the more interesting match-ups in playoff memory. Mainly because Southampton are the most in-form team in the league over the last 20 games or so, and Boro under Kim Hellberg are number 1 in every single performance metric, but finished 5th. The playoffs aren’t a lottery; usually, the third or fourth get promoted because, well, they’re the better teams. But let’s get into it. I’ve watched multiple games for both teams. This will be a shorter form breakdown because I’ll be honest, long form tactical pieces are boring to read.

Southampton:

Away from home, they’re more than happy to have less of the ball, but be more direct in their approach too. That’s shown in their goal kick set-up. Because Ipswich go man to man all over the pitch centrally, they’ll play short to bait the press in and go long to Larin for A) Azaz to pick up the second ball and play both runners (Fellows and Scienza) through. Or B) Larin flicks it on to one of those runners anyway. Middlesbrough also go man-to-man on goal kicks and wants to press high, especially at home.

In terms of settled possession, Saints use what pretty much everyone else does who’s got ball-dominant tendencies. One full back inverts, winger stays wide, opposite full back stays wide, with the winger on that side staying wide, 10 stays central, and the 9 follows the ball. What’s slightly different for Southampton is that their two defensive midfielders are consistently on the same horizontal line, or slightly staggered. But they do have the freedom to move wide to make a back three in certain situations when the ball is quickly turned over to them.

In the final third, it’s all about getting the ball to Scienza or Fellows to cross into the box where they flood numbers. Scienza can cut inside and get a shot off or cross it back post, or Fellows can do his classic stepover> cross. Their wide pairing of FB and winger are averaging 16 crosses per game.

Out of possession, Southampton used a man-marking system to squeeze the middle of the pitch. It went from a compact 442 press to a diamond press with Azaz pushing alongside Larin and Jander pushing up to put pressure on Matusiwa. Nathan Wood was tasked with following Marcelino Nunez too. However, Ipswich quickly countered this by dropping Matusiwa into the back three, moving Davis inside to drag Fellows with him, and Dan Neil moved diagonally into space to allow the pass into Philogene to be isolated vs Bree. This also stopped Wood from following Nunez as Jander couldn’t break that space, Southampton’s press was confused throughout the game because of it, and it was why, when Jack Clarke came on, he was able to have such an impact. No,w if I apply this defensive press to how I think Boro will set up in possession, and I’m thinking the template they use will be more Blades away in February, the difference being no Hayden Hackney for this leg of course.

Boro:

Following on from above, I don’t like a diamond press because I think it leaves too much space between the single midfielder and his wingers. This is why I think Boro will go back to a variation of their 4-4-2 because the way Hellberg uses McGree, Whittaker and Strelec in recent weeks means they’ll occupy those zones that are left open. Their movement in that area of the pitch is too fluid to be constrained by a diamond press, if that’s what Southampton go for.

To counter that, in recent weeks, Boro’s passing from the back has been sloppy, and they’ve been caught out numerous times looking to overplay. With my idea of Southampton looking to play with less of the ball and perhaps be more direct in their play, using Malanda as a trigger to press would be what I would go for. Not because he’s bad on the ball, it’s one of his strengths, but more because he will try to be too risky at times and force a pass. If you force that decision out of him in split-second timing, because Boro push their players forward, there’s a chance of a quick overload of the defence. Ipswich did exactly that but with a blindside press. They wouldn’t put pressure on him when he had all of the pitch in view, only when his back was turned to any side of the pitch.

There is a move that Boro love to do, and they execute it at least once a game from the build-up. They’ll bring both of their double pivot to the edge of the box, and it’s always right-sided. They want you to press and make them feel boxed in so Brittain can disguise a pass into the middle of the pitch, as they’ve manufactured a scenario where the middle of the pitch is vacated and McGree will be in there on his own looking to receive and then go against the momentum again by quickly playing to Whittaker.

I think there’s a common misconception around intent with the way Boro play. They play at a high tempo even if they dominate the ball. A lot of third man runs, a lot of runs forward in general. For example, their opening goal vs Wrexham, from Brynn having the ball in his hands to Conway sticking the ball in the back of the net, required only four passes. They don’t tend to play slowly in the opposition half, and if they do, it’s not by design. It’s more patience and then spring rather than patience all around. In this game, I think the target is the flanks, no pun intended. Conway usually operates on the left, and where the ball is, the overloads are for Boro. I think that could be a huge issue for their full-backs and wingers ahead, because they’re naturally programmed to mark people rather than space.

I think there are two things that perhaps are not highlighted as much in this game and that’s Sol Brynn and his weakness of diving low to his left, and Southampton’s defensive setup from set pieces, in which they consistently lose first contact and concede at the back-post. Starting with the Brynn angle, he’s conceded at least 5 times off the top of my head from being slow to move his feet and get down to save shots that have either gone under his arm or he’s not saved, and it’s not in the corner anyway. Who loves shooting down to his bottom right? Yeah, you guessed it, former Middlesbrough player Finn Azaz. He’s already scored 3 goals this season, aiming in that corner, and he scored 6 last season, too. 17 of his shots have been aimed at that bottom right-hand corner. Regarding Saints, Peretz has conceded 6 goals from 15 shots from corners, and four of the six are in the same area. Looking at their setup now, after they switched from conceding, they’re light on the back-post after being light at the front-post. Could be an area for Dael Fry to exploit if the delivery is a good one.

Prediction.

Southampton on paper should have more than enough to get the job done here. But It’s going to sound mad given the run Saints are on but I think they’ve got game breaking players in a simple tactical framework whereas Boro have a game breaking system with typical top half Championship players outside of a few who are top 3/4 level. Strictly speaking for this leg, and it wouldn’t be any fun if I don’t make a prediction. If Southampton rock up with a diamond press and use that same pressing structure as they did vs Ipswich, I can see Boro scoring 2/3 and winning the game pretty comfortably. Equally I don’t think Southampton won’t score because they have the better players. This is a great case study of does the better coaches team win with lesser players or does the better players just win like they should do. Since both of these head coaches were appointed in November — Boro are 1st for expected points and Southampton are 6th for expected points, but actual points has them flipped. Also helps having two great additions in January in both boxes where Peretz is 1st for goals prevented in that time frame and Larin has the most goals too. But I’m going to stick my neck out on the line and say Boro win 3-1 in the first leg and will defeat the 12:30 curse of every big game ever being boring as sin at midday.

From what I know, Watford have reached out to an agency firm regarding head coaches and have even scheduled an interview with one candidate this week. Whether that would be sorted this season or for next remains to be seen, but word-for-word the message I received today was “Yeah, Ed is certainly going.”

Moving forward, we need a long-term plan. We seriously cannot be changing willy nilly based on sweet FA and vibes. So, looking at the squad we have, looking at the numbers game and which players suit a style and work around that. We don’t have the money to completely change everything and bring in 10+ quality players to get it working. But with the knowledge the wage bill and spend will be towards mid-table and perhaps lower.

The squad.

Chakvetadze, Irankunda, Petris, Semedo and Keben could be on the move here too, which would put senior outfield players to 10. But I’m pretty confident at this moment in time, Irankunda and Giorgi stay put, and the club are confident of signing Alleyne and Mfuni back on loan. I don’t actually think the squad needs that much work. I would add a number 9 who can work with the wide players we’ve got. Vata, Irankunda are as I’ve said before, shot monsters, so you want someone who can be a bounce pass/link player. Chakvetadze loves driving inside and playing slip-through balls, so you want someone who can do that side of the game too. You’ve then got Baah and Bola, who are by-line cutback crossers, so someone adept at those near-post runs or hanging back — Tolaj at Plymouth ticks all those boxes. With the budget we have, we have to be smart. If an academy player with promise is physically ready, use them rather than wasting money. Give Nabizada and Greaves chances in the team to come in and perhaps start games if they show it. The best football teams win more games in their league because of synergy from head coach to squad composition. Do you work well with the man next to you and ahead of you, if it’s one way there’s a clear weakness there. Regardless of the wing pairing, players like Irankunda, Baah, Chakvetadze, Nabizada all need someone behind them that first and foremost can lock down a flank to some degree. Bola’s backup can of course offer something different but needs to be defensively sound and be able to overlap. Ngakia’s comp needs to be someone again, who can offer something different but can handle the player ahead of him not being as hard working going the other way, which is fine, because most attackers aren’t as intense defensively. In the centre of defence, Watford do need better aerial defenders. Pollock is the only one who can consistently win and defend the box well. Mfuni and Alleyne coming back after playing men’s football should improve in that area too. Lloyd Jones from Charlton would be a smart addition to the makeup of the current squad. Doesn’t have to be him, but someone that adds leadership characteristics but will also kick and head everything if it came his way. With what’s ahead of them, Kyprianou, Bove are the only two officially contracted players at this time. Fairly similar in terms of fitness being A1 and can run all day. Bove much quicker passer but not expansive, but when he’s properly up to speed, someone you want as a complimentary midfielder next to a passer. Physicality is not just strength, physicality is how quickly you can use your body to your advantage in any situation and do it well. Luka Modric is extremely physical for example. Harrison Reed from Fulham was close to joining previously, him + Ekwah returning on another loan again would fit the dynamic of the current team. You want runners and quick intense players out of possession to make up for the wide players not doing that as much — which is why I’d have Vata as the number 10 because he will give you non stop running all day. Bring in a Georgian winger too for the vibes. Giorgi Abuashvilli or Georgiy Tsaitashvili who are both at Metz and will be getting relegated would be great pickups — they both give you the same dynamic as Vata in the sense will run run run.

The next head coach.

So what style does this squad suit? To me it’s one that has space to run into for most of the game. They don’t want settled possession, they want to run at their player, they want to take shots in open field, they want to play fast. What does this squad need? Someone that has worked with younger players, developed them in a transitional style of play; and also has a form of history of overachieving because wage bill and spend, Watford will be middle of the pack, and you’ll want someone to build over three years for incremental improvement each season. You don’t want someone coming in blind and learning too much on the job. I don’t believe in managerial win percentage, because the context behind that is always layered, but if you have a history of winning with less and certain player skillsets, that’s also attractive to a squad like Watford. But who’s actually out there who ticks all these boxes and requirements? We know Watford won’t pay for anyone so it’ll be free agent coaches or someone who’s in a job that doesn’t require money to buyout. JDT and Robert Klaus are two that have most of these traits, not all, but there will be a compromise somewhere. I’ll go further in depth when the season has ended but these are jottings down off the cuff.

No matter which club, it is always necessary and important that you need an idea. You need to know how you want to play, what kind of profiles do we need because if you do not do that, you're always looking for the needle in the haystack. Do you think Porsche, Mercedes or DHL would ask their stakeholders what they should do next ahead of every decision they make? The same holds true in football - it's about the right people on the board making the right decisions for the club. It takes right decisions and where you want to go to - what kind of players, what kind of manager - and then in every transfer window try to get the best possible. This is possible. This is not rocket science. club needs a proper sporting structure, a clear philosophy, and consistency in planning. Without that, you'll keep changing. — Ralf Ragnick

Watford are back in familiar territory. Underachieving with multiple factors at play. There’s no plan, there’s no optimism, there’s no idea. An idea and a plan are completely separate entities. A plan, as we all know, is something you follow. An idea is something you come up with. There’s not really a need to go into details regarding each head coach change, or each transfer, or other facets that have been done 10x over and then some. Any plan and idea can work, it’s what you create around it that will determine if you fall short, be on par, or overachieve. I’ve mentioned before I think win percentage for managers is meaningless. It doesn’t, for the most part, show a true reflection of ability. Managers are also like players. They have a skillset, they’re not, again, outside of a few, adaptable. Only one idea can exist, two ideas cannot co-exist in the world of football. Take Gary Rowett at Leicester for example. Is Gary Rowett a bad manager? Absolutely not. But he’s a manager that has a skillset of direct, compact shape, gritty football. Something that aligns very well with what Millwall have built towards. So far at Leicester he’s only won 1 in his first 10 games. That should not come as a surprise because Leicester is a squad suited to dominating the ball, playing off the cuff with tactical instruction within that. The likes of Brendan Rodgers, Enzo Maresca did well with that squad because it was morphed into that. You could go back further with Leicester with Nigel Pearson — Claudio Ranieri was an upgraded version of that style. Millwall again. Gary Rowett > Neil Harris > Alex Neil. They have an identity, and they have a recruitment process to go alongside a style that improves each season, but it’s upgraded on something the players aren’t alien to. Middlesbrough the same with going from Michael Carrick to Kim Hellberg. Derby going from Paul Warne to John Eustace. There’s an idea, then there’s a plan and everyone is on the same wavelength. At Watford it’s Gino with a blindfold and hitting whatever he feels like that day. If Brentford being 7th in the Premier League with Kieth fucking Andrews as their manager doesn’t tell you strategy and patience brings long term success then god knows what other evidence you need.

It’s way beyond the need to say it but there has to come a point where Gino looks at what he’s doing and thinks I’m a total fucking idiot here. Because I’m looking at Udinese who in the last three years have done what Watford need. They’ve kept the same style and upgraded to Kostas Runjaic who just beat Milan 3-0 at the San Siro in his 76th game in charge. The last Watford head coach to have 76 games in charge under the Pozzo’s? Never. Zola got to 75. Do you know how mad that is? We in theory should have an advantage. The club is thought of in London, has a multi club ownership so can attract players not always accessible to this league for other clubs and an academy that has been doing well in terms of productivity. The academy won’t be max’d out to It’s highest potential because the head coaches that come in are immediately in survival mode. Why would they pick an unknown kid when the safe bet is a more experienced player who you know what will give you, good or bad? Chris Wilder had nothing to lose when he chucked in Ryan Andrews because the arrangement was always for the former to leave at the end of the season. Watford should have built a long term plan with Wilder in my opinion but that’s a conversation for a different day. Club culture drives performance, winning, results. What I want Watford to do now is commit to a plan. Look at what the current crop of players we currently have at the club are and build around that with recruitment in mind too. If you’re going to keep Ed Still, give him a long term contract. If you’re not, find someone you truly want that fits with the squad you want to go with next season. Work on the basis that Louza, Maamma, Chakvetadze and Irankunda might not be here. The first two are certainly off, the next two likely staying per my information. Don’t renew Kayembe or Mendy’s deals, let them go. The squad is much better suited to attacking quickly in a variation of 4-3-3. What does it lack? Strong characteristics, experience is meaningless in football, just means you’ve played games. I want to see more characters that have something about them, they can be 19 or 30 for all I care, they’re lacking in this team. We’ve got a lot of good talent that needs steel around them. Look at the attackers you’ve got and then bring in a striker that compliments them. Irankunda and Vata are shot monsters. Chakvetadze is pass first but loves an overlapping full back. Baah is a cutback from the byline demon. So you need a striker that’s going to be a foil for your attackers but also makes quick darting runs to near post or instinctively hangs back on the penalty spot or around that area. Attacking play and partnership/combinations are best when the instincts all mirror up to one another. It’s really not difficult to do this because it’s basic. Bola and Ngakia get a lot of praise because they match well with Chakvetadze/Maamma and Baah/Irankunda. Synergy, synergy, synergy. Watford fans don’t give a shit if we’re in the Prem or not. We want to see something that we’re working towards. Winning games of football comes with stability, it comes with planning and strategy. Too many times has Oxford away happened. Commit to something and build. If it takes three years that’s fine, if it takes five years that’s fine. The opportunity to reset and actually put something in place is still viable.

I heavily believe in club dna being a thing. I know a lot of people scoff at the idea because they will tell you what club dna means is your most successful ever manager so they must have those similarities. Well yeah, that’s the point. Watford have been most successful with gritty, physical, speedy players. Graham Taylor, Aidy Boothroyd, Slavisa Jokanovic, Javi Gracia. QSF in his first season had a lot of elements in that too. One thing this club has lost is a striker with something about them, who is also a do it all kinda 9. Helguson, King, Graham, Deeney. Even Rasiak when he had a short loan was in that mould too. Alex Neil is genuinely the perfect Watford manager. Ed Still could grow into that if allowed and if the club want to actually be serious for once. For the love of god be serious for once. To conclude this rambling:

• Long term contract for a manager that fits with your squad

• Recruit towards that idea

• Focus on characteristics as well as ability when signing players

• Integrate more academy players into first team picture. Nabizada should be playing more than he is. Did not deserve to have zero minutes vs Oxford. Environment created so he wouldn’t be able to

• Fuck Mogi Bayat off

vs Cardiff City (H):

Going into this, my mind immediately went to Ballard being Charlie Kelman 2.0. Similar physique and height, and nippy, but after a minute or so, that comparison was put to bed. Kelman was, and is, an outright in-behind finisher, reactive in the box too. Ballard, at the very start of this game, showed he’s a more accomplished footballer. Dropping very deep to try and get on the ball, turning, and playing his striker partner, Alfie Lloyd, through. What is noticeable is that he naturally drifts to the right side of the pitch. In this game, he was much more comfortable looking to his left because he doesn’t scan when getting on the ball; he either opens his body to play a short pass, carries > passes with either foot or uses his body well by backing into his opponent using his arse and low centre of gravity, and then pushes away to get the pass off.

One of my concerns with players like this is how they deal physically with better centre-backs in their division. Ballard didn’t have an issue with this vs Cardiff. He knows he’s smaller, so he overcompensates, in the right way, with aggression and being annoying. He’ll run into you, squirm away, use every body part to make sure he makes it difficult for you to bully him, similar to how Jamie Vardy uses his body against defenders. Fling out a leg, chuck out an arm, wriggle, and somehow come away with the ball or get first contact. He’s a rat. Chased lost causes, never gives you time and will snap at you in duels. His goal in this game came from charging down the keeper and blocking a pass that goes into the net. Encapsulates the style of forward he is.

Ballard didn’t really get to showcase his movement in the box due to the nature of the game. Orient were looking to counter with Ballard as the main outlet, and not really attempting crosses into the box from open play. But he did look to attack the space when a play could develop. On his haunches, ready to push off his back foot to get ahead of his defender. He also showed his timing and aerial ability. Rather than making the mistakes a lot of footballers make by jumping both footed, Ballard creates a lane for himself to then jump and spring. Makes him a valuable asset against sides who want to sit deep, because in-swinging crosses with his jump timing and leap are a good way to create chances and unlock a defence.

Cardiff City (A):

Similar to the home game, and it shows to me it’s not a one off; his dog like mentality to chase lost causes is basic player instincts, and his way of compromising his size in duels, as I’ve already mentioned, is to do a lot of actions at 100pmh and be ratty with and without the ball. The sole intention is to make everything difficult for whoever he’s up against.

I can finally speak about his shooting ability, touches and movement — it’s my main thing I love analysing and looking for in a striker. The bare minimum to begin with for me is can you match the best defenders in the league physically; if you can, that’s half the battle. Now the second step for me is can you do multiple things as a 9 better or at a high enough level repeatedly — and that’s where in this game I loved what I saw from Ballard. A lot of strikers that I’ve looked at have one or two moves they use. Either a dart to the front post or hang at the back post. Ballard showcased vs Cardiff his ability to reset > move > reset again > attack the space. He was consistently trying to find the best possible area for him to either receive the pass, anticipate where the ball might go but also be ready to control > shoot quickly. I’ll give you an example:

Second thing I want to bring up is his timing and ability to control with his left and shoot with his right, or control with his right and shoot with his left, all in one motion. What separates a great striker for the level from a good striker is how quickly can they get their shots off and into the corners of the goal or getting snapshots off with a loose ball in the box. He can also create shots for himself too which is another bonus because you won’t always get service. Sometimes your movement can force the pass but also doing it yourself is a huge advantage for you and your team. Ballard can dribble at speed with both feet, can shoot with both feet and can either hit with power or curlers.

Scored a lovely curler from range after good work from himself by being smart and nudging the defender out the way subtly with the momentum to send his teammate away and then receive the pass.

Most strikers average around 17%+ of their total touches in the penalty box — Ballard is operating below that at around 15%; but it’s because he wants to get involved and drops deeper to pick up the ball. Again he gravitates to the right side, but also comfortable in the middle of the pitch too. He still only looks to his left mind you, as it’s easier to play from that angle, but it works because Connolly was on that left side and they interchanged well vs Cardiff. I’ll touch on what I think Ballard needs to improve on in a different section, but for now I’ll point at what he does naturally and how he does it. His link-play bag so far has been short passes to his strike partner, setting him away, or wriggling out of trouble and playing it wide left.

Stevenage (A):

I wanted to see how Ballard fared against one of, if not the best, defences in League One and the most physical central defender in Carl Piergianni. The XI and the components around Dom were different in this game. He wasn’t in a partnership; he didn’t have Alfie Lloyd or Aaron Connolly to support him. Instead, Orient had three behind him with two wingers and a third central midfielder pushing up to be more attacking. In the previous two games vs Cardiff, the 20-year-old was drifting right, and most of his best actions came from doing so; it looked natural for him to do that. Vs Stevenage, he was very much operating in a left side position when the ball was turned over.

As expected, Ballard wasn’t able to get the better of Carl Piergianni in physical duels. But he did use his body well to shield the ball or draw a foul against other defenders, albeit it wasn’t as consistent. He wasn’t as 100mph, perhaps due to it being a midweek game and conserving energy due to the three-game week.

When it comes to his box movement in crossing situations or if a teammate is driving with the ball, he’s a pointer. He’ll do the old school point to where he wants the ball played. He attacks space well, and knows when to go into that zone. He might not always get the ball, but understanding where to be at the right time, will always bring goals if you carry on doing it consistently.

Once again Ballard showed his speed and carrying ability, one to get a shot off with his ‘weaker’ left foot and the other to get his team up the pitch but with the intention to score to put the game to bed and make it 3-1. His fitness levels to be able to have that much left in the tank when he’s been running all game also adds another string to his bow. He can change speed when dribbling with the ball too, it’s not all in one quick motion.

He scored two goals in this game, and I want to break down both of them individually as both strikes are different.

Goal #1.

First part. He’s already on the left side of the field, so he knows there’s no point holding that run as there’s a player behind him. So when the ball is past the midfielder, he immediately looks to attack the space which will give the centre back a decision to make, but also potentially open up more space for the midfielder to carry the ball.

Second part. He curves his run so he can see the ball at all times and gives him the best possible situation to get a shot off, whilst also being able to see what the intentions of the centre back are.

Third part. He lets the ball come across his body so it takes longer for the defender to get a block or at least attempt to dive in.

Fourth part. The finish. He takes one touch and waits for the ball to bounce back up again and strikes head down over the ball with power into the top right hand corner. It was a goal of a #9 in autopilot and knowing exactly what he was doing in split second decision making.

Goal #2.

His second goal is aided by a fantastic cross from James Morris, something that the left-back has always had in his locker. However from a 9 pov; the first part is Ballard noticing the space to run into before Morris has got the ball from out of his feet, but Morris has seen him make the move.

Second part. Timing. Make your move a split second before the ball is delivered. It’s late in the game, defenders might ball watch, fatigue could take over. It’s also a back four defending a cross. They hold, they wait, and then they follow. They mark their space rather than following the player, they pass him on in situations like this — there’s always an advantage for the attacker despite it numerically being 3v1 in the centre of the box. The attacker has the advantage of being able to freely move wherever he wants.

Third part. The finish. Remember I said vs Cardiff City that with his movement and jumping technique, Ballard could score a fair few glancing headers? Well here it is. Gets across his marker, jumps, glances it off the top of his head and into the back of the net.

AFC Wimbledon (A):

Again I wanted to see how Ballard would deal against a more physical side of League One. I already know the ability is there from watching him, but I needed to see what he’d be like against a side that will pin him and grab him. He knows his limitations from watching him in this game. Rather than going into duels with the centre backs, he dropped a little deeper and only engaged physically vs a wingback or midfielder, and used his body well when doing so. His way of using his body reminds me of when you get a new kitten and you pick them up, but they’re still a bit shy so they wiggle a bit so you let them go.

Because he wasn’t in a front two, he didn’t get on the ball as much or link-play as much as he’d perhaps like to. As I mentioned, he did drop deeper, but that was for physical reasons rather than in possession reasons, he didn’t look to show for the ball to give inclination or intent to be a bounce pass. Instead rather opting to make quick transitional runs into space or to drag the defender away for his teammate to have either a shot at goal, play him in or carry the ball themselves. A goal James Morris scored for example, the ball was on the right, Ballard closed the angle with his run, as you should; the shorter the ball has to travel in those situations, the easier it is to get a shot off — but him doing that opened up the space behind for something to happen.

He also did score a hat-trick in this game. The first one he didn’t know much about so I won’t cover that one, but the other two goals he definitely did.

Goal #2.

First part. He reacted late to seeing the pass about to be played, but adjusted his body to a side stance which allows him to push off quickly with his back foot. You will always have an advantage as a quick player vs defenders who have to be reactive.

Second part. Using his acceleration over five yards and moving across the defender so he either loses momentum and has to change his stride pattern, or brings him down for a potential red card.

Third part. Takes one touch away from goal with his right foot. Gives him more time to get a shot off due to again, the defenders having more time to travel, it also gives the keeper a decision to make. Does he come off his line or does he stay. Either works for the striker in this position Ballard has created for himself.

Fourth part. The finish. One touch to the left, one touch to deftly dink it over the keeper who’s already made himself smaller. The quick glance before the shot, the deception of the finish to make it look like he’s going left side but instead dinks it where the keeper hasn’t got all his weight and positioning with his right arm.

He tried to repeat the action of this goal later in the game but dragged his shot wide.

Goal #3.

It’s classic poachers instincts this goal. Arguably what most managers will be more impressed by. Ballard is on his toes, leaning forward, anticipating something might happen and follows in after the shot has been taken. Keeper spills, he’s there to tap in.

Ballard’s goal catalogue this season.

The questions regarding strikers should always be why did they score so many goals. What was the team composition, what was his skillset, what did he do when certain players got the ball. Strikers will score goals in any setup if it suits them, strikers will score more goals if the setup suits them, and they have more comfortable and repeatable ways of scoring goals, which don’t always require service. Looking through Ballard’s goals this season, there’s a clear bias for the left side service, but also, he’s very effective in transitional moments. He can shoot with both feet, no issue; he can also score with his head. 34 shots and 10 goals with his right foot, 23 shots and 6 goals with his left foot, 17 shots and 5 goals with his head. That’s a player who can score in multiple ways. However, most of his goals have something in common: he likes to be at an angle when striking the ball. He takes the ball away from the goal when shooting either down the left side or down the right side. An angle creates a better way of hitting corners, as your body is already showing that way to generate more power. Even with his headers, he’s running across the goal to get a glance on it.

Two years ago, I created my own shot placement model. Instead of relying solely on xG to identify finishing ability, I wanted to see where strikers actually got their shots on target and where they were aiming. As a child, you were always taught to aim for corners and shoot across the goal so if the keeper saves it, your teammate can tap in.

Here’s the original tweet:

Based on my estimations from 2024, Langstaff is in the Championship with Millwall, Max Dean is in a league of similar quality to the Championship in Belgium with Gent, and Keillor-Dunn is at Wrexham. Joe Taylor is a huge outlier in all of this because he’s operating at a shot placement career average of around 35%, which is over double the average in separate leagues, absurd levels to be honest.

League One strikers who get promoted to the Championship tend to drop their shot placement % around 5-10%. Ballard is currently operating at 29%, and the average in the league above for goal-scorers in the league above is 22%, so a good omen for him and showing in my eyes, as well as the data that I personally like to use.

His next move.

If you want to get the best out of Dom Ballard. Spoiler alert, I think he’s absolutely ready for the step-up, and he’s only 20 years old. Football is always about maximising strengths and minimising weaknesses. To maximise this player, I think he’d work better in a system with another player who’s up alongside him. Doesn’t have to be a striker. But he’s a very good one touch link player/bounce passer. one-touch. His comfort zone in settled possession is on the right side. He likes to play with the left side to play into. But when he’s not linking play or dropping there, he prefers to come across the centre backs when the ball is in a crossing situation. He does attempt to do the same on the opposite flank, but his bearings to do that consistently aren’t quite there yet. A striker that will try things regardless - he’s got the Cardiff City Ross McCormack gene of trying the spectacular and will have no issue looking stupid, that’s confidence.

• A left back with good delivery from deeper areas

• An attacking player who gets forward centrally

• A winger who is low cross first over shoot first

• Team style encourages counterattacks or transitional moments as soon as the ball is turned over.

• A midfielder who is capable of playing through balls

I think most teams in the Championship should be after him, but if your club has those five traits already in the squad, or plans to have them in the squad. Dom Ballard, who’s only 20, would be a shrewd addition in the summer window. The two teams that immediately come to mind if they don’t get promoted are Derby and Millwall. Millwall as a potential Ivanovic replacement or Derby for a Szmodics replacement, and playing off Agyemang (should they keep him) or Morris.

I’ve spoken about this before when video scouting, but rather than focusing on what a player does throughout a different number of games and combine it into one pot, I much prefer to do it on a game-by-game basis, as then you have added context to a performance. The level of opposition, the different pressures that come with that specific game, and whether there’s a tactical tweak that platforms players’ skillset differently.

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool.

In the opening five minutes of this game, you saw the reason why fans, pundits, scouts are gravitated towards him. Quick release in his passing, only wanting to play forward, trying to break the opposition structure whether that be from a five yard pass to a long pass.

The next five minutes however you could see the holes on his game defensively. He’s late to push up, ball watches and is drawn to the ball rather than keeping shape and closing off the passing angle behind him. Three times Liverpool get around him easily but passing through him as soon as he goes to close down, which is a slow move from Wharton to do so. He also ball watches twice in this period where if the ball is cut back, Wirtz has a free shot at goal because Wharton is not noticing the space he’s left by having his eyes on the ball at all times.

Wharton’s role defensively is to pickup Gravenberch when the ball is moved or starts from the left side and the Liverpool player moves into a more central position, especially when they’re building inside the Palace half. What Palace don’t want is for the game to become stretched and end to end because they’ll get overloaded in the middle every time with Liverpool having as manager as four players in there. What has become very apparent is Wharton isn’t sure of himself in duels, he looks hesitant and it shows in his attempts. Kind of putting a leg out, kind of not, chasing shadows in the 11th minute and 23rd minute.

Without being too harsh, the rest of the half for Wharton from a defensive standpoint was tough for him. Consistently out of position, consistently ball watching, consistently pressing and pushing on his own and then getting passed through and weak in duels too. He does get back and try and rectify his mistakes, but he’s wasting a lot of energy doing that when he could conserve it just by doing the right thing off the ball in the first place.

On the ball, he was as progressive as anyone could be with his passing. As I mentioned earlier, his instinctive thought is forward. You can tell when a player is forward thinking by the run motion after they pass the ball. Do they immediately look to receive again (controller), do they watch the game unfold (complimentary midfielder) or do they carry on running forward to try and effect the game in threatening areas (playmaker) — Wharton is very much the latter. Trying through balls, taking as fewer touches as possible to pass, getting it into an attacking player quickly ahead of him to dumb it down.

This carried on straight into the second half where 6 seconds in, Wharton attempts a through ball to Mateta. Scans right and then left, receives > pass.

This is all he did with the ball as he makes one pass before getting subbed in the 60th minute for Will Hughes for what I presume is to do with what he wasn’t doing out of possession.

There is one specific moment I do want to touch on with Wharton and his off the ball problem in this game and it’s his walking. At the very top you can’t walk as much as he does in this game just because the nature of the game is so fast how. You can’t leave a massive gap in the middle, you have to be early rather than late, at least it gives you time to make a better decision. He doesn’t shift when the team shifts, he doesn’t follow runners and stays central on his side rather than closing the angle and remaining compact.

Crystal Palace vs Fulham.

I think because it’s been so consistent in the game vs Liverpool and not even two minutes into the opening game vs Fulham, Wharton’s instructions out of possession are relaxed. Because you don’t switch off and be in almost auto-pilot mode that early. I think he’s allowed some grace by Glasner with the three centre backs being aggressive and covering for him if the space between the two central midfielders becomes too big. As you can see in below, the gap centrally widens, Wharton doesn’t increase intensity whatsoever, and even though nothing comes of it, there’s a free Fulham midfielder in the vacated space.

Even on three minutes, Wharton’s demeanour seems lazy when either trying to close down, put pressure on any player or even engage in a duel. I know Palace are passive out of possession but it seems to be a constant theme with him that he’s not comfortable, not trying as much or reserving energy.

It’s not like he won’t do it, because he did do it by sprinting back and following the run of Emile Smith Rowe even if he slowed down at the end.

But then for the rest of the game, he’s reverting to type OOP.

He comes to life when he gets the ball. You can feel the confidence he has. One part of his game I don’t think he gets praised enough for is using the momentum of the opposition player when they go to close him down against them whether that be carrying or a first touch. It’s usually a two touch motion and the pass is almost like a chip shot from a golfer on the edge of the green. The way he uses his foot to pass the ball in a downwards motion to get a slight bit of pace but enough height that it’s hard to deal with.

I think with the way Palace play, the skillset of Wharton is a perfect match. Going back to front quickly with switches of play or through balls and quick passes into the forwards. He also showcased his ability to play quickly with both feet too with the same release. Effectively means he can play at any angle and get his passes off. I do think in some of the instances he’s tried to force the issue rather than the actual pass being on, but I personally appreciate the thinking behind trying to get his team on the front foot and into better positions. You want to keep the risk in the player rather than take it out of him; that way with improvement the risk will still be there but the decision of when to take that risk will be better.

Crystal Palace vs Dynamo Kyiv.

Normally, I wouldn’t watch games against opposition where the player in question is obviously a good few levels above the talent he’s up against, but Palace dominated possession in this game, and I wanted to see if Wharton changed his approach to this match-up. The short answer is no. He doesn’t look to retain possession until the game is out of reach. I counted three passes that went back to the centre-backs, and that was when Palace were 2-0 up, and in around the 70th or so minute, he then relaxed and recycled possession much more frequently than he did when the game was in the balance. We know the 22-year old has issues out of possession, but with a game like th,is I focused solely on what he did to get on the ball, the type of pass he made and If he ever dropped into the backline to pick up the ball. And I’ve come away thinking whoever compared this player to Michael Carrick is on a wind-up. This is KDB, Bruno Fernandes, style of midfielder. They don’t slow the game down, they don’t recycle possession and pick the ball up from deep areas. They can do that of course, they can play any pass they want, but instinctively it’s not in their nature. In this game, for example, Wharton was taking at max three touches and either playing through balls, switches or cute passes centrally at pretty much a rate of every other pass. Even when Palace dominate possession, he still treats the ball like they’re on the counter, moving the ball forward into players with space or in threatening areas quickly. What this game also reassured me with was his understanding of space and what positions to pick up. He’s rarely, if ever, on the same line as his midfield partner.

Wharton’s next move.

I think recruitment these days can be hugely flawed in their logic to bring a player to their club. I think they can sometimes look at only what the player offers rather than what can this player do with the rest of the squad and how he fits into that. Adam Wharton’s skillset is his passing ability and his through balls, switches, fast, punchy passes into central areas. What his passing compliments best, is runners in behind, width from the full backs, a 9 that can be used as a bounce pass and a 10 that stays central who can also move left and right. What he needs to fully be on max with his performances is someone alongside him that can cover ground for near enough two people and another ball player that can also create space for him to be effective with how quick he is on the ball. You don’t want him to go to a team where as soon as they win the ball back they contain, you want a team who’s intentions are to fly forward. To bullet point this to make it easier to follow;

To get the best out of Wharton:

• Athletic ball winner

• Speedy wide players (full backs included)

• A striker who wants to get in behind with speed

• Two other central midfielders who can occupy space

It doesn’t make sense for Manchester United to sign him unless they plan an overhaul. Liverpool are already getting ran through centrally, and I don’t think him going there makes much sense either. That can change if Alonso gets the job in the summer, but I don’t think their current options help Wharton anyway. Which means I think his best two landing spots are either Chelsea or Manchester City; both have the players to cover his weaknesses and complement his passing game.

It looks like Watford are set to close the signing of former Roma and Fiorentina midfielder Edoardo Bove on an initial six-month contract with the option of a further two years. I imagine, given it’s two years, the trigger is appearance and fitness-based due to the circumstances of how this transfer is even possible in the first place, after collapsing on the pitch. In Italy, they don’t allow players with a defibrillator in their body to play football, so Watford are taking the gamble on the 23-year-old Romanista. Throughout online discussions, it’s deemed quite a coup for a second-tier Championship club to pull this off, with help from the ownership, who are Italian, and Valon Behrami, having extensive knowledge of that market, having played there for a substantial time period.

What Jose Mourinho said about Bove:

Watford have been in the market for a midfielder as Napalys Mendy is barely getting a look in, and Pierre Dwomoh has been completely frozen out. He should leave the club permanently. Moussa Sissoko is, well, Moussa Sissoko. Edo Kayembe isn’t a sitter or someone who can play in a two, which leaves Hector Kyprianou and Imran Louza. The preference for me would be to bring in a more physically dominant, can do a bit of everything type midfielder, but those cost money. Bove isn’t that, but this is an opportunity you can’t refuse. But what is he actually like as a player?

Throughout his youth career, Bove was primarily used as an attacking midfielder, but under Mourinho and then De Rossi, he was deployed as a deeper, complementary midfielder. Then on loan at Fiorentina, Bove was used in a more attacking role, either as the #10 or off the left of a 4-4-2 or a 3-4-3.

Whilst it’s good to know there’s versatility to his game and a coach such as Palladino used him consistently shows the level of player we’re getting here, I don’t think Watford plan to use him in advanced areas. That doesn’t mean he won’t occupy those zones on the field when Watford are in possession. I think he’s again going to be a complementary player for Imran Louza.

Four things stand out when watching Bove play. The first being his style of 1v1 defending is kind of a throwback to how fullbacks used to defend. That Ashley Cole, or to be more modern, Aaron Wan-Bissaka stance. Body low, legs bent, head down, looking at the ball. The reason is that it allows your movements to be quicker should the ball move, and having your knees bent gives you a spring to move quickly. He positions his body at an angle so he can dictate where the attacker is going and then try and get a nick or take the ball with the dominant front foot leg. This way of defending gives you better balance and a higher chance of disrupting the attacker. It’s not a surprise Bove is averaging nearly 3 tackles a game.

Secondly, his use of the ball. It’s almost always exclusively two-touch. Control > release in a quick fashion. Where Kayembe needs the song to finish to pass the ball or do anything with it, Bove would have passed the ball four times by that point. He’s not the most progressive passer by any means, so don’t expect that. He’s a short passer who can play those cute 5-10 yard passes into central areas. He will keep the ball ticking over. It’s a different level of speed to what any of our other midfielders have not named Imran Louza. With Alleyne going, Bove could fill the void of quickly getting the ball to Giorgi.

There are multiple ways this could affect our in-possession build. Three of them being:

Thirdly, He’s an intelligent player. He will scan multiple times and move into space for another player to receive the ball. One of my annoyances with some midfielders is that they just stand there and wait for the ball, or they run towards it. You want to disrupt an opposition defensive structure, you don’t stay central and take one player out of your build-up, which makes it so much easier to defend. You want to pull and make the pitch bigger with gaps. Bove does this by consistently going wide right or pushing up in the pockets of space for another player to then receive the ball.

Finally, a clear weakness. Lack of athleticism and covering large spaces on the turnover. Because the Italian is small in stature, which comes with having small legs, he’s not the quickest over short distances to offset it like a Kante, Mendy, or even someone like Lewis Cook. With the direct, speedy and counterattacking nature of The Championship, this could become an issue if Watford revert back to a 4-4-2. Bove is another player Watford will have who benefits from having three behind him and players close to him, so he can feel comfortable moving the ball, but also comfortable moving off the ball.

The biggest question here will be how Javi will react to not having a physical midfielder that he usually prefers. Kyprianou will still play a lot and has, in the main, had a good season. But you don’t bring in a player like Bove, who Behrami described as a £25m player, for him to barely play any minutes. The 4-2-3-1 shift has worked really well for us. The obvious change with time would be as already outlined, Bove in for Kyprianou. Bove and Louza has the potential to be a really quick, get the ball forward in a good tempo duo in midfield. You don’t want games to be basketball lite though; you either want to counter or try and dominate the ball. The moment space opens up centrally with large gaps to cover is when it becomes problematic, as there isn’t a Capoue and Doucoure partnership to bail that out.

He’s 22 years old and already racked up 126 Ligue 1 appearances, which means he has to have something about him, and I’m going to watch him to see if the noise surrounding his potential move to the Premier League is justified. Striker’s data are, in my eyes, largely team style-based, so the fact he only has two goals this season isn’t a concern for me. It’s better to see what he can do and if the system he’s in is platforming his talents.

Role in the team: In the 24/25 season, Abline mainly operated in a partnership in a 3-5-2 system where the playstyle was very direct, so he was dealing with a lot of long balls and floated crosses. Whilst he is a fairly tall forward, he’s not amazing aerially in terms of finishing, but he does win first contact pretty regularly when it’s booted up to him. He’s most comfortable finishing around the penalty spot or closer to the D. In the 25/26 season, he’s been operating mostly off the left side. He’s so clearly the best player for Nantes; his game has suffered slightly because he feels he has to do everything himself, and you can see him get visibly frustrated and throw his arms up and pull his shorts if the pass isn’t made to him. He gives everything and expects it back. Some people might not like that, but I think that’s what separates being fine and good and potentially great.

Strengths: First touch, ball carrying, speed with the ball.

Abline probably possesses the best first touch that I’ve seen from any striker in Europe. He kills it, takes the ball into his stride, and creates separation almost immediately. For number nines in Ligue 1 last season, Abline led the division for shots from take on attempts with 8. This season, he ranks third for shots from carries with 16. You won’t see many better forwards who possess his ability to carry the ball upfield, as well as have quick feet in tight spaces and the nimbleness to escape or evade pressure. He goes to initiate contact by planting his feet and getting low, which enables him to have the power and speed to get away quickly into space. Naturally, he peels to the left side even when playing as a lone striker or with a partner. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t channel run down the right side, because he does, but his comfort blanket is being on that left as he wants to cut inside and unleash a shot. He wants to get involved in the game and drops deep because he knows he’s capable of carrying his side 30/40 yards up the pitch. When he plays as a 9, he’s dropping deep to get on the ball, or he’s quickly spinning behind the central defender to run onto a through ball so he can shoot across goal. If he’s playing wide left, his starting position isn’t high and wide; it’s low and wide. He wants to access the ball more easily and quickly from the midfield or fullback.

Improvements: Box movement, finishing.

The reason I don’t think he’s an outright centre forward is because of his movement in crossing situations and his natural instincts when the ball is around the box. A natural finisher would anticipate rebounds, look to follow up a shot, or even have that hunger to get into the box. It would be harsh to say Abline doesn’t have this, because at times it is there but it’s rare. He prefers to hang back and ball watch whilst walking, or hangs at the back post with little movement from crossing situations. He doesn’t come alive like he does outride the box where he will show double movements for balls over the top. Also, when he does go through on goal, his temperament is to try and hit it as hard as possible most of the time. Whilst his technique is clean, his ball striking isn’t that great because it’s erratic. There’s a consensus that clean ball striking means hitting it hard with no back-lift, that’s not the case. In the Premier League, 9s who score goals tend to have a blocked shot % of between 8%-20%. Abline is currently operating at 34% of his shots being blocked. Thats because he takes too long to get it off through too many touches, not through being a slow motion. It’s head down, try and and get a clear opening which in turn makes an opening to a closing. When he works half a yard, he goes to find another yard and that allows the defenders to get back. He needs to work on his shot placement too, because according to my model, the consistent finishers average around 22% of their on target shots being in the corners. Abline is averaging 13%, he needs to stop going for power every time and central. The ability in both feet is there, the technique and temperament needs work and that will take him to the next level. I want to see him variation into his runs, show a quick dart to the front post, fake a front post run and back peddle back to the space. I want to see him manipulate defenders into sides of the box so he can shoot across goal with either his left or right foot. The easiest finish for strikers with power in their shots is when they go hard and low across the keeper.

Conclusion: Weighing all his strengths and weaknesses up, I think Abline is a top 6-8 Premier League-level talent. I think he’d be a great signing for the likes of Crystal Palace, Everton, Bournemouth, and Leeds. His instincts and tendencies lead me to believe he is very close to both Matheus Cunha and Joao Pedro. There’s intention with every first touch. It’s immaculate almost every time, but the touches after that can be loose and awkward and a good chance of a turnover going the other way. Physically, he can match anyone; speed isn’t an issue because the acceleration with the ball is genuinely high standard. Where he’s a step down from the other two is the speed at which he actually gets shots off. He takes too many touches and overplays consistently. Where there’s an opportunity to pull the trigger, he tries to go one more, and the shot is either blocked, scuffed, or he’s lost control. Cunha and Joao both can snap shots off quickly even if they’re guilty of the same thing of overplaying. Joao is also good aerially in the box. He’s great at carrying from deep, getting out of tight spaces. He looks for the interchange to give and go; he can shoot cleanly off both feet without the best accuracy. There’s an arrogance to him as well in the way he demands the ball from his teammates, but that can also go against him, as he does go into hero mode quite often and thinks he has to do everything himself. What caps him from being at an elite club is what caps Joao Pedro and Matheus Cunha. They’re good in multiple positions without having a natural great position. I don’t think he’s a natural 9, as the instincts and movement in the box aren’t there. I also don’t think he’s an out-and-out winger who has to be on the touchline. I think he’d work best with someone close to him, but let him have the freedom to roam about in the left half spaces because he will excite you, he’ll bring a certain energy every time he gets the ball, he’s the type of player a mid-table Premier League team would love, and fans would idolise. Not every player is destined for greatness, and in my opinion, Abline, if he were to move to the Premier League, would struggle to score goals constantly, but he would absolutely impact games regularly because that carrying ability, matched with physicality, would be effective in England. If I had to put him anywhere, he’d be great in the current 3-5-2 iteration of Leeds with Calvert-Lewin as his partner. I think if he had his game simplified and had teammates on his wavelength, he wouldn’t get into a rut of wanting to pop the takeover pill, because he’s capable. Just when his mind goes into overdrive, he does exactly that, overdrive.

I’m going to write my own scout reports on players who aren’t particularly mainstream but have a shout of moving to another club in the January window. Kasper Høgh is one of these after having two good seasons at FK Bodø/Glimt in Norway. With 41 goals in 80 games there’ll be interest from abroad no doubt. Some people have a different way of looking at players; I personally like to do it on a game by game basis against opposition that are considered a test to try and evaluate their true level.

vs Sturm Graz:

Høgh‘s run selection when in crossing situations was very noticeable in what he was trying to do. Whilst some coaches tell you to have variety of runs and to make the movement before the ball is crossed and out of sight of the defender, Høgh was keeping his distance from the defenders and looking to go into the vacated space. He didn’t engage physically in the box once. If the centre back went right, he went left, if the centre back went left, he went right. If the centre back was retreating, he’d delay and keep the separation. A classic you move they move.

His linkup was pretty minimal but he did showcase some nice one touch passing when played into him. He’d play it wide and then spin off and accelerate into space. Whilst he’s not rapid, he’s not slow either. He’s sharp over short distances which creates separation to start off with, but can’t keep that up over longer distances and the defenders are able to get back and cover.

Physically he rarely got involved but when he did he was able to use his strength fairly well by holding off with his left arm, but at the same time he was moved a bit too easily albeit he kept his balance and recycled possession.

The Dane had two shots in this game, one from a crossing situation above which he mistimed and then being played through but was too slow to get his shot off. Head down, needing four small strides to set himself. Against higher level opposition you need to cut these strides to shot ratio to around two. The quicker you get shots off, the better chance you have of scoring at a higher level.

vs Juventus:

Similar to the Sturm Graz game. Høgh does not want to engage physically when he’s running or in the box from crossing situations. An example here where he’s trying to get into space (back peddling looking for it) and in his comfort zone but he’s being grappled and can’t find his rhythm and is thrown off by the defender which leads to him half jumping for a header.

Must admit I’m not liking what I’m seeing so far. Physically he’s very easy to move off the ball and distract him. He knows this though, which is a good thing, he’s not playing the centre backs game and instead is running towards the ball in goal kick situations and using his good one touch ink play to recycle possession.

Second half Bremmer wised up to his ideas of dropping deeper on his side and got aggressive which stopped it from happening from the rest of the game.

However as soon as he enters the box, his runs and movement are easy to handle as all the Juventus CBs are doing are putting a hand on him and that’s him a non factor. There was a chance for Bodo where if he was stronger, he’d of had a tap in back post. Any time someone got physical with him, that was him out of the game.

You can play a ball into him and he’ll mostly stop it dead and keep things going.

His movement again is looking for that space and not wanting any physical battles. Which is fine in some instances like set pieces as it gives you a clear advantage for flick ons and attempts at goal but when it’s all you do, your chances of scoring against better opposition is lower because you’re reactive rather than predictive in your movements for where the ball will likely go. He’s also slow to get shots off again, he needs three more touches and steps to set himself and the backlift in his leg movement to strike the ball isn’t quick enough either. Being in a Knutsen team mean he will get chances regardless of the opposition, especially at home, but against the better opposition he leaves a lot to be desired unless there’s a clear opportunity in space for him to finish.

Conclusion:

I watched his full 90 vs Galatasaray and Spurs as well and it’s more of the same, but think he’s a beneficiary of being in such a good system in the league for Bodo in a league that’s not particularly strong. His record in Europe being 1 in 10 in the Champions League and 7 in 14 being against Twente, Olympiacos and Maccabi Tel-Aviv, with only one coming from away from home says a lot to me. He has to be comfortable to perform. Nice one touch link player, weak aerially and physically, and awkward finisher. Not a clean tenchnique, a lot of his efforts are ‘scuffed’ and he takes an extra few touches to get shots off under pressure which end up being blocked or put off by a defender who’s recovered, which happens consistently. Also his movement is heavily space related and he doesn’t change that approach ever. It’s so predictable. No variation. I also think there is such thing as “Knutsen tax” when it comes to this. Bodo have one of the biggest advantages due to the nature of their pitch so, in home games, against possession dominant sides, they’ll have the advantage on a quicker playing field for them. If you look at Hogh’s record away from home in Europe, he’s only scored in two games out of a possible twenty eight. Not just this, players that leave often find themselves back within three seasons. Patrick Berg is by far the best player, left, wasn’t good enough in France and went back. Jens Petter Haug another top player for them, left, bounced around Milan, Frankfurt and Gent not really doing anything before ending up back in Norway at Bodo. Philip Zinckernagel another, did ok for Watford and Forest, went to Belgium where he was fairly good but found himself back at Bodo four years later. It’s a problem and a testament to how good Knutsen is with these players and how he platforms talent. You can take the wider view of players who have left Norwegian football and not been the same even in the last five seasons. Faris Moubagna, another Bodo attacker scored 15 in 28 in 2023, left the club and has scored 3 league goals since and can’t get a game for Cremonese in Italy. Svere Nypan is struggling for minutes at Middlesbrough and his performance levels are meh, albeit I can let him off for being just 18. Albert Gronbaek was unreal for Bodo, can’t get in any of the teams he’s played in since leaving. Henrik Meister was great at Sarpsborg and has barely played or scored since. Casper Tengstedt scored 15 in 14 for Rosenborg four seasons ago and has scored 13 goals since then. Erik Botheim, another Knutsen discovery. Didn’t score a single goal for his previous club, went into that Bodo system, scored 15 in 30, got a move to Salernitana and proceeded to score 4 in 39 and now finds himself at Malmo in Sweden where he’s doing pretty well. There are some exceptions of course; mainly being one of the best 9s ever in Haaland, but also Victor Boniface, Akor Adams and Aune Heggebo. But what do they all have in common? Physicality and speed. It’s not a surprise none of the others who don’t have these traits are the ones struggling in demanding leagues, which is why I don’t think Hogh would be a success outside of a technical first league. He should avoid English football or a top five league in general. Would do well in a tier 2/3 league which for the money Bodo would want, doesn’t make it viable.

Hayden Hackney was close to joining fellow Championship side Ipswich Town in the summer for circa £20m + bonuses and sell ons and all that jazz. He’s been the heartbeat of Middlesbrough for a few seasons now and as a fellow sceptic myself despite watching a lot of him, I want to see if my pre determined thoughts of a live watch are accurate or if I’m seeing what I thought my biases were telling me how I think a midfielder should be played within his fixed role in the team.

Defensively:

I’d probably wager the reason clubs didn’t bite on the price tag, albeit fairly cheap in today’s market is because of his ability, or lack of off the ball. Consistently ball watches, weak in the tackle and not enough determination to get back to help out a teammate. That’s not to say he can’t do it because the energy is there once the ball is going forward, it’s more a mindset approach. I thought it was quite telling in both of the last two games vs QPR and Charlton — Hellberg later in the game took Hackney out of a central midfield position and moved him to the left and playing just off the striker. When the ball is in transition with space centrally, Hackney doesn’t show the same level of effort and runners easily bypass him or outmuscle him. In the Premier League with the game heading towards a more direct style of play, this won’t fly and he’ll need to improve massively in this regard. Again, It’s not to say he can’t do it but as he’s the best player for a second tier side, he won’t be afforded the same grace by players just as good if not better than him. There’s also a thought process that you can cover this weakness in his game by pushing him further forward and using his energy to press forward rather than have him in vulnerable positions centrally where second ball winning and tracking runners is essential. Some of the stuff he does is only a tad late, but when you’re in the best league in the world, that tad late can be the reason a goal is conceded. “You only got to fuck up once. Be a little slow, be a little late. Just once. And how you ain't gonna never be slow, never be late?” — below is Hackney switching off consistently in games.

Hayden Hackney vs Ipswich.

Lining up next to Alan Browne in midfield. Hackney had the bigger responsibility. He didn’t have a ‘set’ position, he floated between getting the ball deep and making up a back three, receiving the ball in advanced central areas and floating wide to play one twos. In the first half he’s much happier pressing when the Ipswich DM (Cajuste) had his back turned.

As I mentioned earlier, defensively he’s not the best at picking up runners or knowing where they are. He lost the Ipswich attacking midfielder who he was level with and then got caught ball watching as he peeled off behind him.

Hackney is more of a carry-to-pass midfielder rather than outright being one or the other. Whereas someone like Adam Wharton will immediately pass first time with pressure on him or not, Hackney will take as many touches and entice the opposition and then make the pass.

I understand why the consensus around Hackney is he’s a great passer, which I don’t necessarily agree with — I think he’s a smart passer that plays clever passes between the lines at small > medium range but is also capable of curved passes down the sides. His strength is more carrying and then passing rather than outright just passing.

Hayden Hackney vs Southampton.

Hackney was a bit more reserved in his role vs Southampton. Where against Ipswich he had more freedom to get forward, he was picking up the ball from the defenders almost every time rather than being slightly ahead to receive. But again like I’ve already highlighted regarding his passing ability, It’s not that expansive. He was playing very short passes into tight spaces again and looking to get the return to carry ahead.

His instincts majority of the time is to take off but if the opportunity isn’t there, his close control is good enough to keep him stable and recycle possession.

It’s not that Hackney can’t do it, because he has the ability to do so, but he’s not a consistent line breaking passer, he prefers those medium passes into central areas. They’re risky in their own right but he uses them as almost a bounce pass.

He loves the space on the flanks to pick up a pass where there’s space to do so. He’s a strong carrier and knows it, so takes full advantage when the opportunity is there to drive forward. My challenge for him is to do this more in central areas as that will take his game up a notch.

I think this passage of play perfectly encapsulates Hackney’s playstyle when looking to pass the ball. He puts others in better positions to do what they want offensively. Those medium passes into central areas are his bread and butter. Whilst FBref will say he’s one of, if not the most progressive midfielder in the Championship, It’s true by definition but he’s not that kind of passer. It’s more cute passes within the 10 yard definition.

Hayden Hackney vs Bristol City.

I wanted to look at different setups this season with Hackney in to see if there’s any difference in his play style with what he’s being asked to do, and truthfully there isn’t. Instincts still always take over regardless of the position of the map, it’s knowing how to control it and be productive with it. Vs Bristol City for example, their midfield flooded central areas and made the game very compact centrally and it completely nullified Hackney’s ability to drive with the ball.

It wouldn’t be a Hackney performance without him completely switching off and watching the ball and players run past him.

This is what I mean about instincts and what a player initially thinks of when it comes to space. Hackney wants to take off and does to an extent but there’s not enough room for him to keep going and plays a simple pass sideways.

Nypan recognises the space in the Bristol City midfield and Hackney plays the pass centrally. When the space opens up, he will play that, but players move for him rather than he moves the players with his passing, which is why he carries and utilises it that way.

Hackney at his best. Committing players with his carrying, looking for the one>two and then playing in his teammate who should take a better touch.

Hackney and his passes medium distance inwards or central areas.

Conclusion.

I think Hackney needs a lot of work defensively, especially on long balls with second balls and runners going into the penalty area. Also needs to slightly toughen up in the tackle. From the eye test to the data, 45% win rate at second tier level isn’t good enough, it has to be minimum 54% at a higher level, in my opinion for the trade off to be good enough. Given most teams play two centrally, I think Hackney would either have to be in a three man midfield off the ball or moved out wide. Because stylistically, I don’t think Hackney and Rogers are that dissimilar. Intelligent passers rather than outright line breakers, very good carries who take small touches and commit players before a pass. Hackney naturally likes to move wide and exploit the space that gets given up with defensive set ups these days not being as intense bar a few teams who are outliers. What helps him get away with it with Boro is his midfield partner is always a smart ball winner who compliments him well (Howson, Morris, Browne). You couldn’t have Hackney and Bruno in the same midfield, or Wharton and Hackney in the same midfield, but you could absolutely have Berge, Lukic and Hackney in midfield. He’s not particularly a late runner into the box either, he’s like I’ve said, carry, pass first and look to create rather than shoot. That’s not to say he can’t score because he’s got a clean shot from distance. He’s one of, if not the best player in the second tier of English football, but small details matter.

I wanted to do a short-ish piece on QPR striker Rumarn Burrell mainly because I think he’s a number 9 in the modern game that’s perhaps going exstinct? and he’s one of the few that’s keeping it alive. Erling Haaland is considered one of the best strikers of the modern era because he’s deadly in front of goal. Haaland for example averages roughly 3.8 shots per goal scored. Burrell? 3.33. He’s so far ahead of every number 9 in League One last season and The Championship this season it can’t be considered a patch of form or just a one off, there’s a method to how he scores goals. There’s a reason he’s had the most big chances created for him this season in the league with 13 and that’s what I’m going to look at.

Shot maps.

As you can see from his shot maps from last season and this season currently, he’s not a high volume shooter but a very accurate one. Also that he’s got good placement as well as being efficient from close range. 13 goals from inside the six yard box is someone who knows how to be in the right place at the right time consistently. He’s also very speedy and quite small stature wise, so he’s not going to be someone you want to floating crosses into or linking play regularly, and judging by his numbers of completing around 9 passes per game, It’s not something he’s asked to do either. But what I’m going to do is analyse every single goal he’s scored for QPR this season and see if there’s any method to the science of him being this good in front of goal.

Goal 1 vs Wrexham:

I know this went down as an own goal and he scored a 1v1 later in the game but I wanted to use this goal more as a highlight to the subtle movements he has in the box. Simple but effective. Burrell is watching the ball at all times, but is also not attacking the space early because it means there’s no opportunity should the ball become free. He’s got his arm on his defender to gradually get in front of him and as soon as that ball is loose in his area, he’s able to spring off him and react quicker than anyone else.

Goal 2 vs Millwall:

This goal is all about instincts. What he’s doing is natural to him to be where he thinks he should be. The first movement to run back where he came from whilst Dembele had the ball and then immediately follows his run where nobody else is as the ball is played wide. It’s knowing where to be and being where the space is. Not everyone scores this type of goal because not every striker would think to run into the space in the box — most would carry on their run ahead of them.

Goal 3 vs Swansea:

This might be my favourite goal from Burrell so far. You might think all he’s done here is run front post, which he does, but the small details of him to have that opportunity was all made by him and I’ll tell you why. Firstly it starts with the build-up on the left side. Burrell at no point allows the defender to be in range of him to tussle or be close to stop any form of run. Secondly he keeps the option open for the crosser of the ball to play a cross into the penalty spot when he checks back. Thirdly as soon as the ball is played to the second QPR player to cross the ball, he makes his move before the ball is crossed to the only place it can go in that situation, the near post. Burrell was in control of that entire move by only touching the ball once which was the finish.

Goal 4 vs Ipswich:

There’s not a lot to this goal other than being what he is and that’s always alert in the box. Hand up as he wants the ball delivered, moves just before the shot is taken and follows up immediately to tap home as he’s expecting some form of ball near him. It’s what great poachers do. Always alert, always ready.

Goal 5 vs Southampton:

There’s two parts to this goal. The first part is the move that never happened that he’s anticipating. You notice his position whilst Chair is on the ball down the right. He’s standing clearly in an offside position and that’s intentional. It’s because he’s expecting Chair or the ball down the line to Kone to play across to which he’s then not in an offside position but also still ahead of the Saints defenders for a, and in best case scenario, a likely easy finish. The second part is him resetting himself when he realises Field is on the ball. He notices the gap appear between the RCB and RB and arches his run into that gap where the ball at that angle can only go and he does the rest. He’s all about exploiting space at the right time.

Goal 6 vs Hull:

This goal is the very definition of you make your own luck and reminds me of what Calvert-Lewin said in an interview about Carlo Ancelotti and what he said to him about the role of a 9. I’m paraphrasing of course but it was along the lines of if you stay within the width of the posts at all times and within distance of the penalty spot, you will score goals no matter who you are.

Goal 7 vs Norwich:

If you notice Burrell is rarely back post in any of these goals from when the ball is near the by-line. He’s always closing the distance that the ball has to travel because it’s much easier to get contact and it’s much easier for his teammate crossing the ball. He can’t see the first pass as he’s trying to move his head to know where the ball is, but can see the ball come back to Jimmy Dunne and immediately moves into the space before Dunne has crossed the ball. It’s about being ready first and there first. If he’s half a second late the centre back for Norwich is able to either block or put Burrell off.

Goal 8 vs West Brom:

Blimey. A different type of goal. This time showing his speed to close down the opponent in the press and be alert in the box should it bounce his way, which it does, and a composed finish. Yeah he’ll also miss chances, what striker doesn’t - but he’s never panicked. Look at this finish for example. Doesn’t smash it, looks at the keeper and picks his spot.

Goal 9 vs West Brom:

He’s like when you play football in your house with the dog and you do your best to do quick stepovers or hold him off like you’re up against prime Cannavaro but the dog’s eyes never leaves the ball. Burrell’s eyes here never leaves the ball whilst simultaneously staying close to Kone for the cut back or if there is a loose ball, he can react to it. Burrell is a classic case of sometimes you have it and sometimes you don’t. His instincts of being in the right place at the right time is not something you can teach, it’s natural, it’s why he’ll always score goals whether that be 8-10 a season or 10+.

Good grief this first half was bad from a Watford perspective. I said before the game that the line-up was nonsense as I believe the 4-4-2 approach has more negatives than positives. We don’t have the personnel to play a two man midfield currently. Louza and Kayembe whilst can be serviceable as a pairing in some games, in most games It’s Louza having to do all the work whether that be dropping to receive, creating space to receive, doing all the progression, backing up the front two; It’s too much work for one player. On top of breaking up the Bola + Maamma partnership which has been so good the last few weeks. The centre-back pairing also do not compliment each other as Keben isn’t the best ball player but can be very dominant 1v1 and tracking runners, albeit having a howler in the last month or so, and Pollock who’s slow, reactive and whilst is fairly good on the ball, is on the left side of the back four so he can’t really optimise that part of his game which equals horse shoe possession and hopeful long balls which lead to most of the time, nothing. This team will thrive off fewer direct balls, 4-4-2 template ditched and have someone more creative just off the 9 so they can connect the midfield without needing Louza to give up so much space. I promise you if we slightly tweak the system and utilise our fitness off the ball and get our attacking players closer together we’ll be so much better.

First half.

Without question Norwich were the better side for the first 35-40 minutes, Watford had glimpses but couldn’t figure out how to bypass Norwich’ high and aggressive press. All analysis is theory, nobody but the coaches and players know how they set-up and what their strategy is for the game, but if I was to guess, I’d wager Norwich pressed with a front 6 for two reasons. 1) Watford are not great at playing out from the back as previously mentioned so the opportunity to win the ball back high is tipped in their favour and 2) they have 6 players in close proximity to Louza and Kayembe so if the ball goes long, they’re there to win the second ball and spring quickly. They also guided their press to wide areas too and then blocked off the pass into Doumbia or Kjerrumgaard.

It also doesn’t help that Watford in build-up from the back, sometimes have both their central midfielders completely split from opposite sides of the pitch to one another so if the ball is turned over, the entire middle part of the pitch is vacated. Norwich also weren’t in a man-man press, it was all zone for numerical reasons. They didn’t attatch themselves to Louza, they got numbers around him to win the ball back should the pass go into his area. However, given Louza is in my eyes, the best player in the league, he figures out if he drops into the back three on the far side; and given it’s a press to a zone, the Norwich players won’t follow and instead will open up a passing lane on the inside of the pitch. Watford had two attacks in the first half that were good moves from deep and that was both times one of the central midfielders dropped and allowed one of the wide players to move inside and play the ball to them. That’s how you beat a press and it’s how Watford eventually won the game, which I’ll get to second half.

The first Norwich goal comes from Watford losing the ball from the press we spoke about where they forced the ball wide and into K9 who couldn’t bring it down and play it wide and instead loses it in the middle of the pitch and three passes later it’s in the back of Baxter’s net. There’s multiple reasons as to why this goal is so bad from a Watford perspective. The continuous nature of failing into their trap of forced press wide > long ball > second ball lost. And then reactive and passive defending. I don’t put too much blame on Bola, I don’t think he does too much wrong in terms of blocking the back-post, but Sargent does really well to get his body in front with a quick double movement. The situation benefits the striker always in that scenario because the read is always with the attacker. The failing to stop the cross and close down the player delivering from Ngakia is a bigger problem in this goal between the two fullbacks.

I do want to point out that Kayembe had a simple tap in from a corner after a K9 header across goal but for whatever reason Pollock went steaming in and cleared it off the line. It wouldn’t have been deserved but it was a huge opportunity to get back into the game and our own player cleared it.

When Norwich had settled possession, Watford were fine, the shape was good, the distances for the most part were fine. There was only two occasions where they got through and one of them was because Kayembe and Louza weren’t close together enough but luckily no shot came from it. The second time Norwich got through was just through good play. Given Watford’s shape is compact off the ball, Norwich also kept small distances between players to receive and then play it wide where all the space was, usually to the side of Ngakia, which isn’t his fault, it’s purely tactical to leave him 1v1.

We did equalise through again a back-post header from a corner from K9, which was a targeted area it seemed like. But I do want to get straight to the second Norwich goal. Is this one of the worst goals you’re likely to see from a defensive standpoint? From Keben running backwards and not even looking at the ball, Baxter’s awful attempt at the save, Ngakia completely stopping, Pollock being slow to close down the cross and Kayembe looking at the ball and not covering the spare man at the back stick. I mean goodness gracious me. It can’t get any worse can it?

Second half.

Max Alleyne, our best centre-back, who’s not getting hardly any minutes, finally comes on for Keben. After the game Javi commented on this change, saying: Almost immediately there’s a difference in possession with Louza now dropping into the back three and after 15 seconds, created a better opening than the entirety of the first half. That simple tweak completely throws off a zonal press as I mentioned earlier. That doesn’t mean Watford still weren’t vulnerable from the counter, because of how many men were committing forward to get that equaliser. The difference in most of the second half was Norwich’ press was 30 yards back rather than in our own half. Partly due to the tweak by Watford in possession and out of possession by getting more players central for the second ball, Pollock being on the right side where he can finally plays good balls down the line and not going as long. In the first half we averaged 13% of long balls, second half only 8%. When you can’t get out the natural resort is to hoof, but when you have options to play out as we did, the game becomes a lot easier.

The intensity was up a notch too in the second half, as well as the line we held from the back. Watford were higher up the pitch and didn’t allow Norwich to settle into their rhythm like they did first half. The game was being played a lot more on Watford’s terms in the middle of the pitch too. Again comparing from first half to second half, Watford only made 10 midfield recoveries, in the second half? 24. Norwich won the ball back 4 times in the first half in our attacking third, only once in the second half which came in the 92nd minute. The difference between the two halves from an intensity point of view for Watford was one that was needed. Did we also give up a big chance? absolutely, but that also came from pressing high and winning back and if It wasn’t for a Kayembe needless flick and instead playing the simple pass and retaining possession, that chance doesn’t come about.

I’m not going to sit here and say it was all Watford’s doing to get back into the game because fitness wise they dropped off massively and maybe that played a part in their passive shape more or less from the entirety of the second half and that led to the equaliser. They had to run more to cover more and that means more space to exploit. Watford move it quickly from one side to the other and Ngakia puts in a great cross and It’s an even better header of the ball from K9. Can we please start putting crosses into the box to his head rather than spam the low cross every time? I don’t have an issue with it being Bola low cross and Ngakia high cross, but I do want us to play to the strengths of our strikers.

Wasn’t long after Watford completed the comeback with a lovely move down the left side. Why Javi wanted to break that partnership up between Bola and Maamma satan only knows, but thank god he made the switch back to it when Giorgi went off (fingers crossed nothing serious) and that ever so present trivela pass from the Moroccan wonderkid that he loves to play to Bola was played through and Bola put a lovely ball across for Ince to smash home from the penalty spot.

From this point on nothing really happened. 17 minutes, Norwich had three shots, two of which were blocked and two of them came from the same corner. Watford were good for about 25 minutes of this game, Norwich were better for the majority of the first half and the rest was utter crap of no team knowing how to defend turnovers. I can’t speak on the Norwich side of things but for us we have to bin off the 4-4-2 now. We’re fine when the opposite team is playing out from the back but any form of turnover and it’s murder on the dancefloor. So much space to exploit, players far too high. It’ll be our downfall if nothing changes and we continue to be careless in that aspect of the game. Even if it means moving Kyprianou next to Louza and having Kayembe and Ince ahead for the time being as Giorgi gathers his fitness backup properly. Irankunda on the right and Mammaa off the left. Alleyne next to Pollock too. It makes too much sense to me for this to be our line-up and I don’t know why there’s a reluctance to play it, especially vs teams who play with only two central midfielders as we’re numerically outnumbered in settled possession and in turnovers.

Before going into this game, I was convinced Watford were going to sit deep and look to play on the counter for this game. It didn’t need a rocket scientist to figure out the game plan of that because that’s what a Javi Gracia side does, albeit there have been subtle tweaks to this 442 (4222) than the previous iteration that we saw in his first spell. Also, there is the Rob Edwards factor in this. His record when his teams have to properly dominate the ball is diabolical. In the last five seasons, when his side has dominated the ball, and when I say dominated, I mean actually dominating with 55% possession or more — his record is played 33, won 6, drawn 14 and lost 13. Scored 36 and conceded 52. To put into context those 6 wins — 5 of them came in cup games against lower league opposition in Gillingham, Wigan and the other 3 were against relegated Blackpool, 21st Cardiff and 24th Xisco Munoz’ Sheffield Wednesday. That isn’t a small sample size either, it’s 87% of a Premier League season. What do you think happened in this game then? Boro had 55% of the ball and lost 3-0.

Strategy.

Watford sat out their stool immediately. There was a few passes in the first two or so minutes but the want to get down the sides and hit immediately from second balls was clear. As soon as the ball was won back in our own third, a direct ball to either striker or Baah was the first thought process of any of the players who managed to win it back. Matt Targett must be having nightmares about playing at the Vic because Ismaila Sarr ripped him to pieces back in 21/22 when he played for Villa and was subsequently hooked at half time and then again in the game this weekend Baah had him on toast pretty much any time he went forward. There were two ways of how Watford did this. 1) Leaving Targett completely unmarked in the defensive shape and 2) leaving Baah high and wide when in possession so he’s isolated 1v1 at all times. You can always tell the intentions of a side when they turn the ball over. Do they immediately look to spring with players covering large distances or are they selective/get back into shape. Watford were the former and Middlesbrough were the latter. Boro also didn’t do their homework on us because they packed the middle of the pitch and left 2v1 (overlap or underlap) in wide areas. The shape was beautifully setup by Javi as both full backs moved inside to either be a bounce pass or the opportunity to double up on the flanks AND if caught with a dodgy pass, the safety net of having 6 players ready to run back or stop the ball at source was ready. As the Reverend Mother said in Dune II — we don’t hope, we plan. And that’s exactly what it felt like. One team hoped something would work and another team knew something would work.

Out of possession Watford couldn’t have made it more obvious in what they were doing. They knew Boro were coming with a midfield of Browne, Hackney and Morris and man marked them throughout the game and let Ayling have the ball and made sure to the best they can that the only passes that were on were in wide areas to both Brittain and Targett. It didn’t matter if any of the midfielders received the ball in deeper areas because it’s one fewer player in the final third and one extra man for Watford to defend with. Watford wanted both wingbacks of Boro to get higher and higher and more comfortable to cross the ball because there would be only two players max inside the box, being Tommy Conway and Delano Burgzorg, who’m neither had a hope in hell of getting their head on a cross or winning a duel vs Kyprianou, Pollock or Keben. To show how mental the game plan was from Rob Edwards. Delano Burgzorg has had 111 shots in the Championship. Only 1 with his head. Boro crossed the ball 28 times (11 Targett, 8 Brittain) which is more or less a cross every three minutes or so. Truly absurd stuff.

Only the elite of the elite can properly mask their body shape when passing a ball. Because Boro are so hellbent on trying to play through the lines centrally — it was more or less choreographed every time by Ayling because when he was carrying the ball out, his face was consistantly looking inwards rather than down the line to Brittain. He didn’t want to make that pass. You can disguise who you’re trying to pass to but you can’t disguise neck movement and facial movement when showing what you initially want to do. Even the gif above he pointed where he wanted the ball to be in front rather than to feet and the only pass that’s on is Brittain because Vata is opening his hips up to say go on, do it. As much as Watford nailed the tactics, selection and strategy, the Middlesbrough players were hung out to dry by their manager at the same time. There was nothing for them to create in the final third. There was no combinations to be had or link-play to happen because everyone was central. Hayden Hackney completed 18 passes in 75 minutes of football where his team dominated possession. It was 60% of the ball when he came off too. His lowest completed pass total since playing Birmingham at home in 2022.

There’s really not much else to analyse in this game because of the patterns being extremely obvious. Let Boro have the ball > crowd the middle > make them go wide > cross the ball to nobody > counter. Nothing changed second half when they changed shape, the way of trying to create stayed the same and Watford opened up a bit more with Irankunda having a lovely time of it spraying balls about. Boro created nothing until the 92nd minute where Strelec had a decent opportunity which would have been blocked anyway. Before that their biggest chance was an xG chance of 0.06.

A very comfortable win for us where we didn’t need to break out of third gear because the plan was easy to put into practice. When you know what you’re doing you don’t need to try too hard. If the team you’re up against can’t create chances without having space to run into then simply don’t give them that space, or make them think they have that space to give you the freedom to exploit it. Next up is Ipswich away, it’s not the end of the world if we lose but absolutely show we can put in a performance worthy of points. League table means nothing at this point, couldn’t even tell you where we are. Won’t look until 25 games or so.

Line-ups.

First half:

I think we can agree and Javi will admit he got the first half and line-up wrong for this game. I’ve made this point multiple times but the strategy and tactics deployed by both Gracia and Pezzolano have been good — they make sense in theory but football isn’t theory when it’s practical. Pep Guardiola had a quote “Football is not offensive and defensive. Everything is related.” Player line-ups have to make sense, they have to connect, have joined up thinking. Having Sissoko in the space where a fast winger should be or likewise Petris. Player instincts make or break a team and their game plan. In the opening half hour or so in this half, it was mainly West Brom being the protagonists on the ball and Watford dropping deeper and deeper as the half went on. Part of the reason why Irankunda got hooked will be because of his lack of understanding and timing of pressing. The gap between him and K9 at times was too big and he wasn’t noticing the spare midfielder going into space to pickup the ball. He got back into shape eventually and stopped the passing option centrally but he looked knackered and the timing was off. I have no problem with us being a team that doesn’t dominate the ball because we don’t have the players outside of a handful to do that — they’re much better when there’s space to run into.

Another issue when we were in possession was the lack of penalty box presence. Vata, Irankunda are late runners or want the ball to feet, K9 was the only player on the penalty spot for majority of the first half and that’s easy to defend against.

When we did have settled possession it was hard to build because having an immobile right footed left centre back means more touches and more time needed to make a decision. When the quick pass was on, well, it wasn’t. Irankunda and Vata would drop and float between winger and central midfielder to try and receive the pass but it rarely happened. Ngakia is having a nightmare half. From floated, hardly any power crosses into the box, to getting beat too easily by Johnston and then It was his poor pass which led to the strike from Price to put Baggies 1-0 up. What I would add to that is Pollock is caught on his heels as well and needed to close down the shot quicker. Good strikers of the ball will use the defender as a means to place their shot around and that’s exactly what happened. Luckily minutes later, from funnily enough a dreadful ball into the box by Ngakia, Louza managed to pick up the second ball and stroke it with top spin like a classic Federer shot over the keeper to make it 1-1. The fact it took 30 minutes for Watford to have a shot summed this first half up from both teams. A lot of nothingness and then two quality strikes. It was SO obvious what West Brom were trying to do. Keep the ball between their centre-backs, DMs and Gilchrist, drag Watford over and then hit a quick switch to Johnston on the far side to run into space with Styles on the overlap. Problem with that is the players they have aren’t capable of hitting that pass correctly, nor passing it quick enough into central midfield when the option was open. The number 10 in a 4231 vs a 442 press is the one who can tear it apart with his movement behind the two opposition midfielders and Price wasn’t finding the right pockets which is why Baggies weren’t able to sustain pressure and had a lot of stale possession.

Second half:

To be honest, I wanted to do this mainly because I wanted to rewatch the second half and see if what I thought was right or wrong. In my head I thought it was meh but the switches worked to some degree. Those switches at half time being Doumbia on for Irankunda and Ince on for Petris. Javi said himself after the game that he said he wanted us to be more aggressive off the ball. In fairness if that’s your intentions then I can’t argue with those two players. Both Ince and Doumbia will give you relentless running even if their performance with the ball is off. It also automatically by position puts another Watford player into the penalty box from crossing situations.

There is a clear difference from the start. From tempo and passing selection. Much better in the press, higher up the pitch and going a lot more direct. 14% of passes were direct in the first half, 19% in the second half. Going long to Doumbia was working and it’s how the second goal for Vata came about after good defending which led to Pollock going long to Doumbia who caused chaos and won the battle for Bola to pickup and burn past Campbell to put a ball in. I don’t really need to go into detail for much longer but it’s more or less a carbon copy of Watford 18/19 with the setup. Compact 442 shape, aggressive press in moments, tucked in wide midfielders, two strikers with one floating and dropping in with the other going beyond. Difference this time is the full backs aren’t as good going forward. Ngakia is poor attack wise and that shows in the numbers this season, Bola slightly better with his crossing but neither what I’d call Holebas or Kiko, which to my eyes means you can have a more attack minded player ahead of one of them like I don’t know… a Kwadwo Baah!

To round off this game — since Louza scored the goal to make it level, Watford dominated the shot count 14-6 and had a higher proportion of touches in the final third despite only having 38% possession. in terms of territorial dominance, Watford were +5% and West Brom were -5% (In non nerd terms, Watford had more touches in the final third than their own third and West Brom passed it around the back for 90 minutes). I think it was a solid 6/10 performance. The effort was there, the intentions were there but need to be better at creating chances and not being sloppy in the first half — won’t get away with this against Coventry and I’m not sure the shape is viable either; a change to a back three would be the most logical in my opinion. Or if not, you have to start Baah and use him as an outlet.