btc 已经在诱多了。只是提前其他风险资产一天而已。

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Aug 28–31: ↑ continuation / exhaustion
→ $334–342 peak zone

Sep 1–2: ↓ first meaningful retracement
→ $306–316

Sep 3–4: ↑ rebound
→ $327–336

Sep 8: ↔ / rollover
→ $320–328

Sep 9–10: ↓ strongest weakness of this 10-session window
→ $300–311

Sep 11: ↑ recovery attempt
→ $311–321

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看了一下盘面。黄金和btc已经按时poopoo。那么我就静等大盘poopoo到754的下面一点。

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Not financial advice. Do your own research.

非投资建议。请做功课。

本周将是这次下跌的终点，这个bottom可以是从26日起的任何一天。然后就是拉起到八月31日 到 九月二日。然后是一个小的下跌📉到 Sept 8-12 （暂定大概率是9日bottom）。然后我们会再次开始拉升。

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Today’s stabilization does not change my view. (Some high beta tickers showed weaknesse than recovery.) I still see spy downside targets 760, 755, 750 (at least two of the three) hit in the next few days.

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Do your own research 请做功课

现在看gex，spy下方的positioning主要是集中在760，755，750。whale target在750。我认为这三个点位，至少两个可以到。而且可能就在八月26-27日。下面是模型的新预测，给出一种可能的走法。

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One thing I’ve learned is not to trade the Elliott Wave corrective bounces in a down market. For which, I followed the strategy I previously published: remain patient and keep my hands flat (only small adds here and there). I will wait for the market to present me cheaper cheapies.

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非投资建议。
8月26日的king node让我开始考虑这样一种情景:SPY先反弹,然后再回落(round trip)。我的模型此前一直在暗示这种走势,而GEX则提供了另一重相互印证的信号。

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QQQ Forecast

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免责声明：本文仅供信息分享和学习交流，不构成任何金融、投资或交易建议。所有预测均为概率性、情景性推演，并非确定结果。请独立研究并严格做好风险管理。

黄金最近的突破非常强。

在加入目前所有可用的 8 月价格数据重新校准之后，黄金整体价格中枢明显上移。因此，我把之前的一些目标价向上调整了。

但是，有一件事情并没有改变：

我仍然不认为黄金会从这里一路直线上涨。

最新的路径依然显示，8 月底和整个 9 月可能会经历几次非常明显的上下波动，而真正值得我高度关注的，仍然是 10 月下旬的大级别低点窗口。

最新黄金价格路线图

黄金目前约 $4,624
→ 8月24–25日：$4,690–4,760 高点 ↑↑
→ 8月26–27日：$4,480–4,550 低点 ↓↓↓
→ 8月28–31日：$4,570–4,650 反弹 ↑↑
→ 9…

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Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial or investment advice. All forecasts are probabilistic and scenario-based. Please do your own research and manage risk carefully.

Gold has broken out aggressively.

After recalibrating my forecast with all available August price action, the model still sees more up…

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过去几天，比特币的上涨速度明显超过了之前模型的预期。

因此，我用截至目前所有可获得的8月价格数据重新校准了模型。

结果非常有意思：

价格目标整体被明显上调，但是几个最重要的时间窗口并没有消失。

换句话说：

市场走势改变了波动幅度，却没有完全改变时间路线图。

BTC目前处于大约 $77K 区域。下面是重新校准之后，从现在一直到10月底的最新路线图。

短期：可能还有最后一冲

之前的模型一直把：

8月26–28日

标记为一个非常重要的下跌/压力窗口。

重新校准之后，这个时间窗口依然存在。

但是，有一个很重要的变化。

考虑到最近这波突破的强度，我现在认为最高概率路径已经不是BTC从当前位置直接一路跌到26–27日。

模型反而更倾向于：

先冲高 → 再见顶 → 快速回…

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Bitcoin has moved much faster than expected over the past several days, so I have recalibrated the model using all available August price action.

And the result is interesting.

The price levels have shifted substantially higher, but many of the major tim…

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FCX $76.66 Aug 21
→ $79–81 Aug 24–25 HIGH
→ $73.5–75.5 Aug 26–27 LOW
→ $78–80 Aug 31
→ $82–85 Sep 9–10 HIGH
→ $72–75 Sep 15–16 MAJOR LOW
→ $83–86 Sep 23–24 HIGH
→ $85–87 early Oct
→ $69–73 Oct 27–30 MAJOR Q4 LOW
→ $80–82 Nov 12
→ $75–78 Nov 20 LOW
→ $80–83 Nov 30
→ $85–89 Dec 9–11 HIGH
→ $78–81 Dec 21–22 LOW
→ $84–86 Dec 31

My key FCX windows

…

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不构成投资建议，请自己做功课。

在我看来，过去几天加密货币的走势是一次假突破（诱多）。根据我的模型，加密货币的熊市尚未结束。这也是我一直在跟踪这次行情、试图精准判断顶部的原因。我最初的时间图显示顶部会在8月23日（周日），新的预测则指向8月24–25日。不过，任何预测都不可能100%准确。就我个人而言，现在我不会买入BTC或山寨币。如果现在买入，我的持仓可能下跌50%甚至更多。这些只是我对加密市场的个人观点，也可能是错的。

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In my opinion, the move in cryptos over the past few days is a fake-out move. Based on my modeling, the crypto bear market has not ended. That’s why I have been tracking the move and trying to pinpoint the top. My original map shows the top would be Aug 23, a Sunday. The new forecast shows Aug 24–25. However, no forecast can b…

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我认为从目前这个位置来看，SPY 可能还会有一小段向上的走势。也许周一可以摸到 769–770，完成 C 浪，之后随时都有可能反转。

对我来说，我会选择继续空仓等待，同时分批定投那些已经跌到比较便宜位置的标的。

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I see a small up leg from the current level for spy. Maybe it can hit 769-770 on Monday to finish the c leg. Then it can reverse anytime.

To me, I will stay flat and dca cheapies.

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GCZ6, Eastern Time

My centerline now looks like this:

Aug 21: ~$4,682–4,690 → momentum remains elevated
Aug 24: ~$4,724–4,750 ↑
Aug 25: ~$4,790–4,812 HIGH ↑↑↑
Aug 26: ~$4,650–4,740 ↓↓
Aug 27: ~$4,570–4,620 LOW ↓↓↓
Aug 28: ~$4,660–4,724 ↑↑
Aug 31: ~$4,725–4,770 ↑
Sep 1: ~$4,690–4,720 secondary dip ↓
Sep 2: ~$4,735–4,796 ↑↑
Sep 3: ~$4,795–4,842 ↑

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$GOOG — recalibrated hourly forecast

Times are Pacific Time (PDT). Prices are my central-path estimates, not exact targets.

Fri Aug 21
11:00 AM → $341.8 ↗
12:00 PM → $342.6 ↗
1:00 PM close → $343.0 ↗
Mon Aug 24
6:30 AM → $344.0 ↗
7:30 AM → $345.6 ↗
8:30 AM → $346.8 ↗
9:30 AM → $347.4 ↗
10:30 AM → $348.2 ↗
11:30 AM → $348.6 ↑
12:30 PM → $348…

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