In my past Article «How (I'm trying) to shield from the upcoming Double Digit Food Inflation» I have selected Dutch TTF EU Natural Gas as an Asymmetric Asset to build The Shield® Portfolio against Double Digit Inflation.

I started accumulating Dutch TTF Exposure via ETC in April 2026, adding more in June when the FAKE “Trump's Deal” with Iran was priced 100% by the Markets. I'm very satisfied because I bought around the LOWS for an Average Price of €42.50.

Why this Asset is so Asymmetric now ?

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In my past Article «How (I'm trying) to shield from the upcoming Double Digit Food Inflation» I have selected Corn as one Asset of The Shield® Portfolio against Double Digit Inflation.

I started accumulating Corn Exposure via ETC in April 2026 around $460¢ as soon as I saw the data coming out for the Strongest Niño of the last 150 years.

Those Kraken Niño forecasts only worsened in latest months and now we are on track to have the Strongest Niño since 1789.

1789 was the Year of the French Revolution and everyone should remember what they told to Queen Marie Antoinette:

“People have NO BREAD”

It was because of the Strongest Niño EVER recorded.

And that Painful Kraken Niño is back after 237 years.

As I wrote in my Article «How (I'm trying) to shield from the upcoming Double Digit Food Inflation» what surprised me at that time in May-June has been to found myself ~ALONE at watching for El Kraken Niño Effects.

Hedge Funds, which in the Past have speculated for Higher Corn Price with far less supportive Fundamentals were indeed selling Corn at one of the FASTEST Pace EVER:

“They are ill minded” I thought, although I was feeling myself the Crazy One, as NO ONE was watching the Niño data I had under my eyes.

:-]

Later I figured out why Funds were selling Corn so Hard. The first Ai “powered” Niño playbooks have started to circulate within the Financial Community involved in Commodities Trading.

These Ai “powered” Niño playbooks were saying that El Niño is Good for improving Corn Yield.

The issue ?

Ai has been trained with just the last 20 years of data in which Niño Events have been mild & rosy, NOTHING comparable to this year Kraken Niño.

I have smelt one of these Opportunities in which Human Analysis can beat stupid Ai.

Ai did NOT “learned” that in a Kraken Niño everything is Extreme and when it rains it's a Flood which damages the Crops even more.

:-]

So I kept accumulating more Corn, buying till $410¢ as Prices were falling in June.

Because with my Quantamental Analysis I have sorted out these data highlightned in the Tab below:

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100 years Government Bonds are The Core© of my Portfolio Allocation, the Best Asset to hold for «The Macro Path to 2050» referring to my 1st Substack Article.

It's only since 2025 that such Asymmetric Risk Reward has become available.

It NEVER happened before in the whole Financial History !

At this point I'm deeply sorry but I have already to insert the paywall here, as in ChatGPT you can't find the following Analysis on this niche “Fine Jewelry” Asset Class :-]

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EU is by far the WORST Place to be as the Energy Crisis is unfolding.

I have indeed focused on EU in my past Article «$300 Brent Oil Shock».

EU Governments have been very Active in trying to protect EU Consumers from Oil & Gas Price Spike.

Government Intentions were extremely Good but they are ending with MORE HARM to EU Households & Firms than by doing nothing.

The BIGGEST Mistake made by EU Governments has been believing Trump's promise to close the War with Iran in just 1 Month.

And the worst has been believing in his Multiple Promises of get a “Deal”.

Every Week this “Deal” is the next Week.

Meanwhile Weeks go by.

And both Governments and Private Oil Inventories go depleted and NEVER come back as I wrote in my past Article «$300 Brent Oil Shock».

EU Governments have been so zealant to subsidize Gasoline by cutting VAT Taxes on Fuels.

Italy, Poland and Spain were the Governments MOST Active in these practices.

As you can see in the chart below:

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What happens when the Biggest Ever Carry Trade in Financial History comes to The End ?

Easy answer: The BIGGEST EVER DELEVERAGING of Human History, which tends to repeat and rhymes, just now as we are approaching 1929's 100th Year Anniversary.

Bonus tracks updated in this article:

⟩ My MacroMicro Economic VIM America

⟩ My MacroMicro Economic VIM Euro

⟩ My Inflation Impulse Index Model

⟩ My Portfolio and its Performance contribution YTD 2026

Growth & NOT Adjusted Earnings stopped driving stocks Price since 2023.

You can see how, from 2023, stocks Price has totally DISCONNECTED from Economic Activity.

My own MacroMicro Economic VIM America Index plots a Depression, an environment as WEAK as during the GFC aftermath for the USA:

If you don't trust my VIM Index you should trust the Economic Activity measured by the Official LEI Leading Economic Indicator calculated by the Conference Board since 1988:

From a Fundamental point of view the SPX Index should fall to ~2000 points to reflect a Fair Value.

That's a global Phenomenon.

It's even worse, without Escape, for my own MacroMicro Economic VIM Euro Index which I have designed for the Euro Area:

Again, if you don't trust me…

Tons of Unemployment is hidden in BLS & EUROSTAT xls spreadsheets,

waiting for EMERGE FROM NOTHING.

Eurostat dataset is unfriendly like a juniper grove, anyway well hidden you can find proofs about Employment Recession started in H2 2022.

2023, 2024 & 2025 were all worse than 2009 (2009 that Eurostat decided “UNEXPECTEDLY” to take OUT from their chart, but I saved in advance :-] before it would have disappeared):

So... Why the stock Market registered ATH since 2023 to 2026 ?

The answer is: LEVERAGE !

Who talks about M2 and “Liquidity” makes me laughing.

Because from 2022 the Major Central Banks REMOVED almost $8T of “Liquidity” from Global Markets:

stocks fell globally in 2022 indeed !

As well as Official Economic Activity (LEIs, NOT the Adjusted aka “cooked” GDP numbers!)....

Hedge Funds, Pensions and Asset Managers were in Full Desperation, starving without fees. That's why Hedge Funds recruited “Quant Crew of PhDs” to engineer something to survive: the BIGGEST EVER LEVERAGED Carry Trade.

Based on what they found close to them: the Steepening of the Gov Bonds Yield Curve.

$8T LESS of Liquidity from Central Banks was meaning that Funds had to “cannibalize” themselves, engineering some “tricks”.

#1.

Sell bonds to buy stocks.

This Allocation Shift would have lifted stocks Price letting them to robber HIGHER fees from their clients

#2.

Sell 493 stocks to make Mag7 a ⅓ of SPX.

This Allocation Shift would have lifted stocks Price letting them to robber HIGHER fees from their clients (again).

------

At this point Cash is over !

But there are the last Devil's “tools”...

-------

#3. LEVERAGE, Carry Trade & MORE LEVERAGE !

Options instead of cash.

(⅚ of SPX volumes are options driven now).

Anyway at some point cash ends again.

Crew of Quant PhDs then engineered the Yield Curve Steepening Carry Trade.

A “cash printer machine” helped by “Marketing Advertising Ops” spreading Shit over Long Dated Government Bonds.

Do you remember: “Term Premium”, “Debt is out of control”, “Debasement” and other purposed bullshits ?

That “Shit Machine” was necessary to their Steepening Carry Trade to succeed.

Because they were buying cash Bills and 2y Notes, WITHOUT having the MONEY, funding them via Repo LEVERAGE.

Then they “neutralized” the Interest Rate Sensitivity (Modified Duration) by shorting the Long Dated USTs via Derivatives.

Here we start with the Devil's Details...

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Time: (Just !) 1 hour

Ingredients:

1 Duck Breast

[400:500] grams for 4 People;

Extra Virgin Olive Oil;

8 Bay Leaves, 3 Sage Leaves, 1 Sprig of Rosemary;

4 tablespoons Soy Sauce;

6 small Carrots;

1 large Onion;

1 tablespoon Lemon Juice;

2 tablespoons white Wine;

¼ red bell Pepper.

6 tablespoons Tomato Passata;

500 grams fresh Italian Pasta.

Start by cutting the Duck Breast into chunks and browning it in a pan with hot Extra Virgin Olive Oil, Bay leaves, Sage, and Rosemary for about 5 minutes.

Then add the Soy sauce and brown further on medium-high power for a couple of minutes.

At this point, add the Carrots, cut into small cubes, and reduce on medium power for about 5 minutes.

Separately, blend the chopped Onion with a tablespoon of Lemon juice, 2 tablespoons of white Wine, and 1/4 of a red Pepper, cut into strips.

This last one is the trick to getting my two Little Daughters to eat Onion and Peppers (which are good for stay Healthy!) :-] It also helps create the "cream" that will stick to the rough pasta, a perfect Marriage !

Add this mixture to the pan, followed by the 6 tablespoons of Tomato Passata.

Only 6 to avoid covering the unique flavor of the Duck!

Let it simmer for 15 minutes.

At this point, add the fresh pasta once cooked, and the dish is ready.

Enjoy !

The Perfect Wine for this Plate is an Italian Pinot Nero wined in Rosato !

I took one bottled in 2019 in the “Oltrepo' Pavese” a Region between Lombardy and Pindemonte well known for Wine and Rice.

Very High Quality for Money !

I hope you try this dish.

It's one of my favorite !

AlejandroScorpio

Financial Markets are deliberately ignoring that a $300/bbl Brent Oil Shock has HIGHER Odds to happen now vs 3 Months Ago.

That's because Funds and 401k Pensions charge Performance Fees Monthly, so the more they can pretend everything is fine the better is for grabbing Fees from their unaware clients.

For 2 times Brent Spot Price has been pushed back below $100 threshold.

The First one started in May from a $145 Peak through June till $67 Low.

It has been based on various tricks:

•Oil Curve Strategies played by Bessent and the “poor” Japanese MoF blackmailed by the former to have the “right”, in exchange for Shorting Oil Futures, to waste Japanese Taxpayers Money in useless Yenterventions.

•Massive Release of State Emergency Oil Reserves, both from the SPR but even by the EU Governments

•Bullshits crafted by Trump, Axios, Pakistan & Co. about an imminent “Deal” with Iran

After this First Attempt failed miserably, the same Actors tried a Second one in the last 2 weeks, based on same ingredients as above.

Bullshits are ∞. But useless.

Reserve Releases are useful. But LIMITED.

Once Emergency Inventories are depleted they offer Spot Relief, but are no more available for the Future.

-----------------

Inventories Status

-----------------

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Double Digit Food Inflation is on the making as I wrote in my past Article:

«How (I'm trying) to shield from the upcoming Double Digit Food Inflation»

The Shield® (2028 Horizon) I selected worked very well so far in the last month cushioning the Negative Mark to Market of the Core Strategic Portfolio (2050 Horizon) made by 100 years Gov Bonds.

Anyway it's not too late to increase the Allocation to The Shield®.

Especially providing more Diversification with the New Cheap (and Tasty!) Asset I have just found.

It's....

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It may sound obvious but it starts by…

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And NO, it's NOT due to Energy despite Brent Spot Price may creep as high as $300 within Q1 2027.

Then Net ZERO (GROWTH & INFLATION!) as Main Course already in 2029.

Sounds good as 100th Anniversary of 1929 !

My AlejandroScorpio Inflation Impulse Index was running at -3% Deflation in February.

Then things changed.

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i.e. Fundamentals Financial Data reshaped with a Quant approach.

Some 0.0x% odds Macro Events should be priced 100x MORE !

The ~Impossible could happen.

That's what I'm going to show.

HERE begins my Substack Adventure.

This weekend my BEARRy MARShmallow account has been suspended by X Musk Twitter Totalitarian Regime.

WHY ?

Because, with tons of data at support, I predicted the Collapse of The 40x Leveraged Bundle™ of stocks, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin !

Predicting stocks Gold Silver and Bitcoin ALL losing from 70% to 99% of their Value is NOT allowed on the X Ponzi Scam platform.

Enough is enough for me.

I shared hundreds of Precious Analysis FOR FREE on X getting in exchange just shadowbannings, restrictions and suspensions.

After all, anyway, that was the proof I did a very very Good Job with my Alternative Analysis.

So Good that X Wall Street suspended me to NOT letting know the Retail Crowd their Money poured into stocks, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin is in HUGE Jeopardy !

I'm NOT a Daytrader.

I'm NOT a Gambler.

My Alternative Analysis focuses on the Long Term Horizon from now till 2050.

To prove I believe in what I'm telling I'm going to show my Portfolio Allocation as it changes time by time, built with an Asymmetric Risk Management approach.

It will be a Long Journey till 2050 !

I hope to find in Substack a REAL FREE SPEECH Platform.

I hope you appreciate my contents.

Many thanks for your attention !

AlejandroScorpio