I don’t really make predictions in this newsletter and I don’t have the time to go digging up the link just to pat myself on the back, but I’m sure I said that DC was very fortunate with injuries in the first part of the season, that the odds were that wouldn’t continue, and even an ordinary amount of injuries would put the club in a tough position given how dependent René Weiler has been on his starters.

Well, here we are. DC has an ordinary amount of injuries. One starter is out, another is questionable, and a third is suspended. And LAFC are coming to town.

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Guessing the Lineup

Kye Rowles is listed as questionable on the injury report, but Weiler said he was definitely out. That really hurts because Sean Nealis, who was supposed to be the team’s third starting-level centerback, seems to have played himself out of the job. Some people have expressed bewilderment that Nikola Markovic isn’t being played there, but despite his name Markovic has struggled to, you know, mark players off the ball and I understand why Weiler is unwilling to use him on the back line.

So far, that has left us with Matti Peltola or Andre Dozzell playing out of position. They are both good defenders overall and very good on the ball by centerback standards, but both are going to struggle with physical forwards, especially in aerial duels. No wonder DC’s set piece offense and set piece defense have both been struggling lately.

Tai Baribo is questionable, but I’m guessing he won’t play. It would be great if he could, of course. If he can’t, I’m thinking we’ll see Nathan Ordaz get his first start. Last game, Jackson Hopkins got the start at forward, but Silvan Hefti is suspended for this match due to yellow card accumulation. I think that means Kimito Nono finally plays in his natural position at right back and then Jackson Hopkins goes back to that spot.

Maybe Weiler will switch things up and start Jared Stroud or Hosei Kijima there instead. Or Alex Bono at centerback. Who knows?

I should add that two players we won’t be seeing are Jacob Murrell and Caden Clark. You probably heard Murrell has moved to Scottish side Falkirk, but I haven’t mentioned it here yet so…I’m mentioning it now. Meanwhile, Weiler recently confirmed what we all suspected and said that Clark is expected to leave the club soon as well.

Backup goalkeeper: Alex Bono

Backup defenders: Nikola Markovic, Sean Nealis

Backup attackers: Jared Stroud, Hosei Kijima, Oscar Avilez, Kami Castillo

Not selected: Gavin Turner, Caden Clark, Grant Leveille

Injured: Tai Baribo, Kye Rowles, Jordan Farr, Gabe Segal

On loan: Conner Antley, Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Hakim Karamoko

The Opposition: LAFC

In a league where DC United has been a perennial afterthought, LAFC has been a perennial contender. Despite only being in the league for eight seasons prior to 2026, they’ve won four trophies (one MLS Cup, two Supporter’s Shields, and one US Open Cup). Their worst league finish is 19th, whereas DC finished lower than that in each of the past four seasons.

DC has also never defeated LAFC, although that doesn’t mean all that much as they’ve only played on three previous occasions. DC drew them 1-1 back in 2018, lost 0-4 at home in 2019 (Wayne Rooney got a red card in the 53rd minute with the team already down 0-3), and then lost 0-1 in California in 2022.

But that’s all ancient history. This season, LAFC has been a streaky team. They had 3 losses in a row in May, and then after the World Cup break started things off with three wins in a row. Lately, though, they have played 4 regular season games in August without winning (they lost two and drew two). Mixed in there were three Leagues Cup games, so perhaps that was a distraction, and the results there were very respectable (two draws and a win against Toluca).

Personally, when I think of LAFC, I think of them as having a dangerous attack. Denis Bouanga has been really good, and of course they also have Korean superstar Son Heung-min. And certainly in recent years they’ve scored a lot of goals. But also in the last few years, their defense has been quite good.

I mention it because this season, the offense has fallen off just a little bit. That’s not to say it’s bad by any stretch, it’s above average, just not incredible. But the defense is still extremely good. Only two MLS teams have let in fewer goals. It’s hard for me to say much about the defenders on a team I don’t watch, but Aaron Long has played very well when healthy in the past so it’s not surprising he’s anchoring such an impressive defense. At right back you have veteran Ryan Hollingshead, so between him and Long you have just shy of 500 MLS starts.

That’s a lot of starts, but goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has over 600 starts at the club level and, oh yeah, was France’s goalkeeper when they won the 2018 World Cup. He’s 39 and has probably lost a step, or really multiple steps, but he’s still leading the league in clean sheets and is above average in the “goals prevented” stat.

It probably also helps that they don’t have any really gifted creators in midfield, so none of the three guys in the middle of their 4-3-3 are going to be taking plays off. And Denis Bouanga is the rare attacking star who actually puts in work on the defensive side as well.

So: Denis Bouanga. He’s scored 20, 20, and 24 goals in the last three seasons. Those are big numbers, and he also had 6, 9, and 7 assists to go with them. I was assuming his production had fallen off this year since LAFC’s offense isn’t quite what it was, but the stat I usually look at is G+A-PK, and by that standard he’s having another fine year. His overall stats are down, but that’s because LAFC has only earned one penalty so far compared to nine throughout all of last year. That’s weird! Maybe just bad luck?

He’s joined by superstar Son Heung-min, who had over 300 appearances for Tottenham Hotspur in the EPL. Even at 34, Son is fast and deadly on the counterattack. In the part of the season he played in MLS last year, he was putting up Messi-like numbers: nine goals and two assists in just nine games’ worth of minutes. This year he’s cooled off and has put up merely good numbers: four goals and eight assists in about seventeen games of minutes. Like LAFC overall, he’s been streaky this season. He had a long goal drought, then scored a goal in four straight games after the World Cup break. But he hasn’t scored in six straight appearances since then.

LAFC’s usual pattern is to sit back and then unleash Bouanga and Son in transition, but no team has been able to convince Weiler’s DC to possess the ball, so LAFC will surely have to try to build in possession. That’s where they have struggled, since they don’t have a lock-picker when their stars can’t attack into space.

When I say struggle, of course, I mean that relative to their typical offensive firepower. They’re still in third place in the West thanks to their defense. But the scores of their games since the World Cup break look like machine code: 1-1, 1-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1.

And while DC has some injury issues, LAFC has some of their own. Their young star David Martinez, the guy whose steadily improving play made Nathan Ordaz expendable, is out injured. So is Timothy Tillman, the older brother of US national team midfielder Malik Tillman. He’s not quite as good as his younger brother (that must be frustrating) but is pretty good at the MLS level…but it seems like he won’t be able to play anyway.

Earlier in the season LAFC had Canadian midfielder Stephen Eustaquio, but he was on a short-term loan and has gone back to FC Porto.

What I’m Looking For

This is not a game DC is expected to win, but DC drew Nashville twice, so you have to think they have a chance, and a team like LAFC that does best when attacking into space might be a good matchup for DC’s compact defense.

There will likely be lots of DC-area Korean fans at this match, and maybe some people who mainly watch EPL games as well, so it would be nice to put on a strong performance and convert some people into DC United fans. LAFC’s defense is going to make it tough, though.

But since I get excited to see players I don’t see much, or players in unusual positions, I’ll be watching carefully what’s going on at centerback, right midfield, and forward.

Extra Time

Today for paid subscribers I want to write a brief appreciation of Kye Rowles. I’ve always liked Rowles well enough but considered Lucas Bartlett to be the best centerback on the team. Absence, however, is making my heart grow fonder.

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Now they face a tougher matchup. Charlotte FC is four points behind New England but has historically been better and most pundits think they’ll finish above them. And they’re playing at home, where they have a much better record. DC United has the exact same number of points at home and away, however, so maybe that won’t be an issue.

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Guessing the Lineup

After missing the previous game, both Peglow and Kye Rowles are questionable for this match. If Rowles can play most of the game I’d expect him to start. And since Weiler was dissatisfied enough with Hopkins’ play on the left that he pulled him at halftime, you’d have to think Peglow would likewise start if he can.

In the Lesesne years, when a player was questionable after being out, they were never ready to start, but I think under Weiler we’ve seen it happen a few times. He said on Wednesday there’s at least a chance they’ll be ready, but I’ll assume they won’t play.

So then who will start? DC generated some good chances in the first half on Wednesday even though it ended down two goals. The 4-3-3 was supposed to be more aggressive but didn’t generate the same opportunities, so I’m going to guess we’ll see a similar lineup to Wednesday. Maybe Brandon Servania back starting over Peltola? And another short bench? Remember, this is my prediction, not who I would start and roster for the game.

Backup goalkeeper: Alex Bono

Backup defenders: Nikola Markovic, Matti Peltola

Backup attackers: Nathan Ordaz, Hosei Kijima, Jared Stroud, Oscar Avilez

Not selected: Kami Castillo, Caden Clark, Gavin Turner, Grant Leveille

Injured: Peglow, Jordan Farr, Gabe Segal

On loan: Conner Antley, Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Hakim Karamoko

The Opposition: Charlotte FC

In past years, Charlotte FC has paired a very good defense with a sputtering attack. This year, their offense is still not incredible, but it’s the best they’ve been in that phase for while. The defense is not what it was, however, so once again they seem on track to have a solid season, finish in the lower half of the playoff seeds, and go down fighting to one of the East’s real contenders in the early rounds.

It’s probably frustrating for their fans that they’ve been stuck in this gear for years, but obviously that’s a level of performance DC United hasn’t achieved since 2019.

Charlotte has attempted to improve the team by cutting ties with Wilfried Zaha, a talented winger who used to play in the EPL but bounced around teams in Turkey and France before coming to Charlotte. He had been playing okay, but nothing special, and thus was a waste of a DP spot. To replace him, they’ve brought in Allan Saint-Maximin, a talented winger who used to play in the EPL but bounced around teams in Turkey and France before coming to Charlotte.

What can you say? They’ve got a type.

Saint-Maximin is 29, four years younger than Zaha, so that’s good. And he played pretty well on his last but very brief stop, the French team Lens, whereas Zaha made no impact at Lyon in his last stop. So who knows, maybe he’ll be better. Charlotte fans seem encouraged what they’ve seen thus far.

But they haven’t seen much. He’s not yet fit enough to play 90 minutes, especially not in the summer heat. He only played 22 minutes in Toronto on Wednesday, so I don’t think he’s going to start this game.

That means that the best starter and the focal point of Charlotte’s attack will continue to be Pep Biel, who has 10 goals and five assists on the season. Their other DP is forward Leil Abada, who has been a disappointment and there continue to be rumors of him moving on, but he’s still there and still starting. And he’s actually been doing better lately. If you include Leagues Cup, he has 3 goals and 3 assists in his last seven appearances.

In the defense, the name that you’re likely to recognize is American centerback Tim Ream. Ream is about to turn 39 and can’t defend well in space, but as we know, despite supposedly being a counterattacking team, DC United doesn’t really have fast attackers who could exploit this weakness. Additionally, Ream has never been great in the air and that is something that DC can exploit. Charlotte is tied for second in the league in set piece goals conceded.

Their goalkeeper, Kristijan Kahlina, is coming off three years of being at or near the top of the “goals prevented” statistics, but is 29th in the league this year. As always I’m not sure what to make of this. Nagging injury? Was he kidnapped and replaced by a lookalike who’s not as good? Or maybe the defense in front of him is worse and that’s just making him look worse. Except the defense isn’t terrible in most metrics, just average, so that doesn’t really explain why he’s 29th.

There’s one other familiar face at left back: David Schnegg. He joined the team late after being waived by DC United, started the season as the backup, but seems to have played his way into the starting lineup. He has a goal and two assists in eight games worth of minutes, a big improvement from his last season for DC where he had one assist in thirty-two appearances. I assume we’ll see him start on Saturday.

What I’m Looking For

If the last game against the New England Revolution was a game where I thought DC could potentially be evenly matched, this is a situation where on paper Charlotte is definitely in a different weight class and ought to win comfortably at home.

But I’m still hoping to see DC United bounce back and play well. The forces of parity in MLS are strong, and it seems like DC United does a bit better when a tie is considered a good result and they can play in that headspace from the opening whistle.

Extra Time

This week for paid subscribers, I want to talk briefly about something from Wednesday’s post-game press conference. René Weiler had an interesting comment in response to a question from Jason Anderson:

“I heard some frustrations from the fans but I have to remind them that they ask maybe too much. And I remember that some people told me we had too many draws, and I told them, you are crazy. Because all games are so tight and I repeat it again, where we are coming from, and today, of course, it wasn’t the best game, but without any doubt, I repeat, the better team was the opponent and not DC United. So maybe the way to become a really strong team, we are much better today than we were, but the way is a little bit longer than some people think and maybe they should be a little bit more patient and more objective.”

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But wins are going to be needed to hold on to 9th place or, dare we even think it, move up one spot in the standings. This is a game at home against a team that’s been poor on the road and so is exactly the kind of situation where DC has to learn how to win.

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Guessing the Lineup

Lucas Bartlett should be back from suspension, but Kye Rowles is still listed as being out on the injury report. I’m expecting Sean Nealis to partner Bartlett, but what about in the wide midfield spots? Peglow is listed as out injured, so how about that, maybe he was just injured for the game against Montréal and wasn’t in the doghouse after all!

If so, you know, it sure would be nice if the team could find some way to disseminate that information! But I get it, it’s tough, it’s not like there’s a network that can instantly transfer information at the speed of light from nearly any point on Earth to any other point. They probably sent Jason Anderson a letter and the postal service just hasn’t delivered it yet.

Anyway since it seems like the coaching staff sees Jared Stroud as the next best wide midfield option, I think we’re going to see Hopkins on the left and Nono on the right and we’re going to have to like it.

Backup goalkeeper: Alex Bono

Backup defenders: Matti Peltola, Nikola Markovic

Backup attackers: Jared Stroud, Nathan Ordaz, Caden Clark, Hosei Kijima, Gavin Turner, Kamil Castillo

Not selected: Oscar Avilez, Grant Leveille

Injured: Peglow, Kye Rowles, Jordan Farr, Gabe Segal

On loan: Conner Antley, Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Hakim Karamoko

The Opposition: New England Revolution

When DC played the Revolution back in early April, the teams were roughly even in the standings on the edge of the playoffs. Since then, DC United has had some ups and downs but has mostly stayed just a hair above the playoff line, holding down the 9th and final spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Revolution looked unconvincing in their narrow home win against DC, but that win turned out to be the second in a run of four straight regular season wins. Or to frame it another way, that was the second win in a period where they won seven of nine games.

For reference, DC United has only won five games this entire season, so winning seven of nine is pretty good! That vaulted the Revolution to lofty heights in the Eastern Conference. They’ve cooled off since then, and in particular since the World Cup break they’ve only won one game in five, and that was against the East’s last place team Atlanta United.

For now the Revolution are still in fourth, but they’re only six points ahead of DC United in 9th, so they’ve almost dropped back into the pack of teams clustered in the midtable.

They’ve scored 29 goals, two more than DC, but that’s still a bit below average in the East. Their defense has been their real strength. They’ve given up five fewer goals than DC, and only Nashville and Chicago (on one fewer game) have done better in the East.

In general, the Revolution have done well in tight games. Early in the season they blew out Cincinnati 6-1 and Montréal 3-0, and recently they crushed Atlanta 4-1 (all of those games at home), but all their other wins have been by a single goal. That might serve them well against DC, whose version of “doing well in tight games” is to earn draws against better teams.

On the other hand, the Revs been a team with a very large home/away discrepancy. They’re 8W-1D-2L at home, with those two losses against Nashville (#1 in the East) and Houston (#2 in the West). On the road, however, they’ve gone 1W-2D-5L with that one win coming against the woeful Atlanta United.

At 33, Carles Gil is no longer the dominant MVP contender he was at his peak, but he’s still the focal point of the offense and leading the team in goal contributions with seven goals and three assists. He’s got a reasonable supporting cast this season, with Argentine winger Luca Langoni notching three goals and six assists, Israeli forward Dor Turgeman tallying four goals and four assists, and teenage homegrown winger Peyton Miller adding four goals and one assist as well.

One challenge for the Revolution’s offense in this game is that Langoni is out injured and Peyton Miller had to leave Saturday’s game in Toronto with a concussion. Thankfully Miller is said to be doing better, so he might play, but we also might see former DC United homegrown Griffin Yow start in his place.

Yow was the starter at the beginning of the season, by the way, but lost the job to the 18-year-old Miller. Yow has a single goal and no assists so far on the season, whereas Miller has five goal contributions in only a few more minutes. I don’t have any ill will toward Yow, I wish him the best like DC’s other departed homegrowns. But I’ve never been very impressed with him and thought DC fans greatly overestimated his quality out of some combination of just assuming any move the team made was a mistake (not a bad assumption during the period when he left, admittedly) and overrating “European leagues”. Yow had a decent season for a lower-midtable Belgian side (Westerlo) two years ago, then his performance dropped off and he lost his starting role. I know, Belgium is located in the glorious soccer continent of Europe, but if it’s not a top team, if you can’t start for a Belgian team then you probably aren’t going to start in MLS.

Anyway, the big news with the Revolution is that they signed a new Designated Player, Jack Harrison. This is a guy longtime MLS fans might recall because he’s had a really unusual career trajectory. He’s English and played for the Liverpool and Manchester United academies, but he moved to the United States as a teenager and ending up at Wake Forest, entered MLS via the SuperDraft, and then ended up at NYCFC.

Despite his origins on the glorious soccer continent of Europe, he ended up playing like a stereotypical American player, making up for slightly less than elite technical skills with a massive work rate. This made him a perfect fit for Marcelo Bielsa’s murderball and he played a huge role in helping Bielsa’s Leeds get promoted to the Premier League. He then had eight goals and eight assists the next season as Leeds shocked everyone by finishing 9th. That kind of production meant that when Leeds went down, he was able to get a move to Everton, but he’s never looked as good as he did while playing for Bielsa.

After dealing with some injuries and mostly unproductive years, now he’s come back to MLS to play for the Revolution. Although he’s just 29, Leeds fans are convinced he’s completely washed up. They think age and injuries have degraded his elite physical attributes and that he doesn’t have enough technical skills to fall back on. So this was kind of a strange choice for a Designated Player.

But the early reports from New England have been positive, and Leeds fans may not be reliable on this subject, seeing as they regard the players who left after relegation as traitors (despite the fact this was financially necessary to the club, it’s very silly). They’ve also been mostly watching Premier League soccer lately, and MLS is obviously a lower level.

Harrison started Saturday against Toronto so I expect him to start again at Audi Field and we can see for ourselves. If he does still have most of his old athletic gifts, he’s going to be a tough matchup for Kurokawa and whoever is playing left midfield.

It’s harder to say much intelligent about defending without watching the games, but the Revolution are using a DP spot on Matt Turner in goal so it’s worth mentioning that while he’s not quite at the heights he hit prior to going to England, he’s third in the league with 5.2 goals prevented (Sean Johnson is 12th with 1.7) so the statistics claim that he’s playing an important role in their defense. Then again, the statistics said he should have started over NYCFC’s Matt Freese at the World Cup and…you know what, maybe the statistics are on to something.

What I’m Looking For

Assuming he starts, I’m hoping to see Kimito Nono getting more comfortable in whatever position he’s playing. With Bartlett back, I expect the set piece offense to improve. I think I say every time I want to see Andre Dozzell being used more in the build-up, but I guess I don’t really expect that at this point. It would be fun, and very helpful of course, if Tai Baribo can continue his goal-scoring streak.

But we’re more than halfway through the season, so the biggest thing I’m looking for is aggression from the coaching staff. It’s time to push for a win.

Extra Time

This week for paid subscribers, let’s take a quick tour of the Eastern Conference playoff race. Many teams have been retooling during the World Cup break and now the race is on. For every team currently beneath DC United that improves and makes the playoffs, a different team needs to drop out…or else DC is probably the team dropping out. So who’s getting better and who’s getting worse? Let’s dig in.

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Game Context

Montréal was trying to climb out of the Eastern Conference’s basement, but their big, flashy move was signing 37-year-old superstar Alexis Sánchez a few days before the game and he wasn’t ready to play yet.

DC United was continuing to integrate midseason signings in hopes of building momentum for the playoff race, with their latest signing Kimito Nono finally practicing with the team on Tuesday.

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #17 (DC United) vs. #28 (CF Montréal).

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Formation

DC United’s biggest challenge was dealing with the fact both starting centerbacks would be out. Kye Rowles had been dealing with a nagging injury and Lucas Bartlett was suspended for yellow card accumulation. There was also a question of how to work in new acquisition, fullback Kimito Nono.

I’ve made a lot of comments lately about how René Weiler’s lineups are pretty easy to predict, but I don’t think anyone had this one:

Just like with Silvan Hefti, at the beginning of the season, Nono stepped off the figurative plane and right into the starting lineup, but at right midfield, not fulback. Jackson Hopkins moved to the left. Peglow was glued to the bench. Meanwhile, Sean Nealis started as expected, but his partner was defensive midfielder Matti Peltola.

Technically, this wasn’t René Weiler’s lineup, because he was sick and so assistant coach Thomas Binggeli was on the sideline. I assume Weiler still called the shots, but it’s pretty funny to imagine that Binggeli went rogue and that Weiler was watching from his bed just as confused as fans were: “Hopkins on the left? Peltola at centerback? Where’s Peglow?”

We didn’t get any answers in the postgame press conference because goalkeeping coach Cody Mizzell took the questions and seemed like he was on a mission to get DC back to the league average for interesting answers by counteracting a season’s worth of blunt Weiler honesty with a single session of cliches.

At any rate, there was no repeat of the 4-3-3 shape. Jared Stroud was the first sub, replacing Hopkins on the left, and then switched sides when Hosei Kijima came on for Nono. Nathan Ordaz was a like-for-like replacement in the dying moments for Louis Munteanu. Nikola Markovic came in at the same time for Brandon Servania in another of his midfield cameos.

Game Flow and Goal Breakdowns

Kickoff through 50’

Before the match, and especially after seeing Matti Peltola being played as a centerback, I was very nervous that Prince Owusu was going to dominate this game even more than he did the first one. We’ve seen Peltola play centerback in previous seasons and he really struggled with big, physical forwards. Peltola is pretty tall, but I don’t think he has the strength and maybe the mentality of a true centerback.

For his part, Sean Nealis has both the strength and mentality, but my concern there was whether his speed and positioning was going to be good enough to track Owusu’s runs. Pretty much the only current Montréal player I discussed in my preview was Owusu, because he’s Montréal’s single impressive player. And he’s really impressive. He can do it all: he’s a big, strong target forward who can muscle into position to finish a chance in the box, he can hold up the ball when building possession, and he can win goal kicks and other long balls. But he also makes good runs off the ball, he’s a pretty good passer, and while not a speed demon, he’s faster than a lot of centerbacks. He’s the complete package, in other words.

So I spent the first half being relieved at how Montréal was choosing to play…but also feeling a little aggrieved on Owusu’s behalf. Say what you want about Troy Lesesne, but in 2024 he knew what he had with Christian Benteke. He didn’t want his offense to just be long balls and crosses, but that played to Benteke’s strengths, so that’s what they did. Then, inexplicably, in 2025…but let’s not get sidetracked.

My point was I felt like Montréal didn’t do nearly enough to work the ball to Owusu in general and to find ways to get him isolated against Peltola in particular. Sure, there were a few moments here and there, most notably the early long ball that found Owusu in behind. His touch let him down on that one (a very tough play to make) and instead of running that back five more times, we didn’t see that again. And whenever Owusu was battling for the ball, it seemed like it was always Nealis he was battling, not because Nealis was man-marking him or something, but because Owusu was just positioned over on Nealis’ side.

Even so, Montréal definitely had the better of the chances (contrary to what I say in the video just below here, recorded before I’d gone back over my notes). DC’s slightly reconfigured offense didn’t really look any different than it has for the past month or two. There were some nice plays, usually from Hopkins dribbling aggressively near midfield, but the offense remained several passes away from generating real danger.

50’ Prince Owusu 0-1 (PK)

50’ through 66’

Somewhat predictably, after Montréal scored their goal, they seemed to take their foot off the gas and DC pushed forward more. I was hoping to see Peglow and Ordaz come in around the sixty-minute mark. Instead, we got Jared Stroud for Jackson Hopkins. Lloyd Sam (I know he’s polarizing but personally he’s my favorite MLS color guy by a mile) was incredulous that Hopkins was coming off and also very dismissive of playing Stroud on the left, pointing out (with somewhat more polite wording) that Stroud’s only real move is crossing with his right foot, so what is the point of playing him inverted?

I don’t have an explanation for why Peglow was an unused sub. Maybe he picked up a knock, or maybe he was late for practice or something. I thought Hopkins did better than I expected on the left, but unlike Sam I wasn’t horrified to see him come off. I wasn’t optimistic about Stroud, of course.

All I can say is either the team really did pay over two million for a backup striker and they don’t see Ordaz as useful in midfield, or else they don’t feel like he’s got the defensive responsibilities straight yet and don’t trust him there. Pairing Stroud and Nono in those spots seemed like it was prioritizing defensive solidity, which seemed like a strange choice when down by one goal.

But Sean Johnson was still taking the goal kicks slow during this period. The team might have been playing a bit more aggressively but it was hardly the case that they were really going for it, like they did when down two goals against Nashville for example. And then they ended up scoring a gorgeous goal from the run of play, so in that sense I guess it worked out. Maybe if they were still down a goal after seventy minutes we’d have seen more aggressive substitutions and the 4-3-3.

66’ Tai Baribo 1-1

66’ through full time

After the game was tied again, the game state flipped and now Montréal was taking the initiative in a big way. You might say that vindicated the “defensive solidity” substitution pattern, except DC United exhibited no defensive solidity. There wasn’t much offense to speak of, but even so the defensive strategy seemed to be to let Montréal get the ball into dangerous positions and assume they would screw things up.

If that was the strategy, well, it worked. As Montréal demonstrated, they are really good at screwing things up. Absolutely elite at this.

So it’s hard to know what to make of it. As in the previous game, Jared Stroud was running hard after Sean Johnson got the ball, hoping to be sent in behind, and Johnson was looking him off and taking it slow. Ordaz didn’t come in until the game was almost over. DC was just be hanging on for the draw against one of the worst teams in the league.

The MLS commentators all but endorsed this, saying Montréal needed the win more than DC United. And, okay, I guess that’s true. But to make the playoffs, you have to win some games now and then. Draws alone won’t cut it. Sure, DC was on the road, but their home record has been poor for years, and is, say, LAFC going to be an easier match than this one just because it’s at Audi Field?

Anyway, I said in the first half I couldn’t help but feel mad at Montréal’s coaching staff on Owusu’s behalf. In this second half, I was mad at their front office on his behalf. And maybe his agent for facilitating his move? The players around him are just…so…bad.

I have frequently made fun of Montréal for acquiring Hennadii Synchuk, for example. It’s not Synchuk’s fault they paid a reported four million dollars for a teenager in the Ukranian second division, but they did, and a year and a half later he still probably wouldn’t start for at least twenty-five MLS teams. He’s still just 20, though, and in this game he had a few nice moments, so maybe someday he will be a solid starter. Meanwhile, his flashes came amid so many poor plays. And even so, he had a better game than some of the other “attackers”!

It was almost comical by the end how well Owusu was playing in all phases of the game, doing everything he could to will his team to victory and serving up perfect assists, only to watch his teammates waste these opportunities again and again.

It’s not like I would willingly watch a Montréal game that doesn’t involve DC United so I don’t know, maybe all their games are like this, and they are in 13th solely because no one except Owusu can finish chances.

But the simplest explanation is that DC United is still struggling to balance their offense and defense. Early in the season, the knob was turned too far to the defense, and while they defended well, goals were few and far between. Now the offense is better, but the defense has degraded even more than the offense improved.

Alternatively, maybe missing Rowles and Bartlett was more damaging than it appeared. The penalty seemed like it would have been conceded regardless, but a lot of the other opportunities either came from Montréal set pieces (where Bartlett especially would make a difference) or from other broken-play situations.

A road point isn’t a terrible outcome, especially while missing both starting central defenders, but there’s lots of work to do. This is not a roster that will contend for trophies, but it still feels like they can do better than this.

Expected Goals

Montréal had a decisive statistical advantage this game, outshooting DC 23-7 and tallying 2.35 xG to DC’s 0.71. The xG was much more even in the first half, with DC edging it 0.49 to 0.45, though Montréal had twice as many shots (8) thanks to their willingness to shoot for long range. In the second half, though, Montréal had 1.9 xG to DC’s 0.22 and outshot DC 15-3. The penalty kick was worth 0.79 xG, so that was a chunk of it, but the rest, 12 shots and over an entire goal’s worth of xG, came after the game was tied again as Montréal tried to win the game.

Baribo’s goal was just 0.17 xG, showing how hard it is to get a good header on frame from that tight angle. His header in the first half that missed the near post was DC’s highest xG shot, 0.33.

Besides the penalty kick, Montréal’s best opportunity was Noah Streit’s second half miss after a corner kick, 0.23 xG. It looks like that Olger Escobar attempt deep in stoppage time that seemed sure to win them the game was generously scored as a 0.16 xG blocked shot, even though as far as I could tell on the replay he seems like he failed to even get the shot off.

Player Ratings

Starters

Sean Johnson - 7 - He made 8 saves to preserve the draw and Opta claims he prevented 1.23 goals. They weren’t the sort of flying fingertip save that gets you on a highlight reel and Montréal players did him some favors with their shot placement, but games like this were why DC United desperately needed him after enduring the goalkeeping of the last few seasons.

Keisuke Kurokawa - 4 - He had one very good play where he hip-checked Synchuk as the 20-year-old was trying to execute a difficult volley right in front of goal. I wouldn’t really expect Synchuk to successfully hit that anyway but it was still a good defensive play. Otherwise, well, there was that very dangerous free kick opportunity that he kicked into the stands. And his second handball penalty of the season. Yes, the handball seemed kind of unlucky and so did the first one, but this is a real two nickels situation.

Sean Nealis - 5 - He had a key tackle on Owusu to prevent a goal and jumped up wagging his finger, which if you are watching my videos you know means he probably fouled him, but hey, he got away with it. Otherwise, he won plenty of duels and seemed to mostly hold his own when isolated against Owusu, so it was a good outing. He doesn’t add much in possession, so I don’t think he has much of an opportunity to win the starting job, but he makes a very solid number three centerback.

Matti Peltola - 5 - He had two bad turnovers, but in both cases Montréal was polite enough to return the ball to him without much fuss. He was involved in DC’s two best chances, making a nice play on the goal and then what I thought was surely a mishit pass that Servania managed to head on to Baribo for DC’s highest xG chance of the day. Hopefully he won’t have to keep playing in the backline, though.

Silvan Hefti - 6 - This was what I now recognize as the standard Hefti game: he got beaten a few times, but he doesn’t give up when beaten and often is able to make a play on the ball anyway. And he had a really nice moment in the attack which in this case led directly to DC’s only goal. I know he doesn’t really have the pace for it, but I wondered if he might do better playing in front of Nono instead of vice versa.

Andre Dozzell - 4 - Okay, I guess, but as usual, not as influential as I’d like. He actually got more touches than Brandon Servania but didn’t do as much with them. I’m docking a point from both him and Servania because neither were able to stem Montréal’s late-game dominance.

Brandon Servania - 5 - One of his better games overall, some impressive moments on offense and won most of his duels. But like I said with Dozzell, unable to deal with Montréal’s pressure.

Kimito Nono - 6 - Great assist, first of all. As you’d expect, he seemed to struggle sometimes with understanding where his teammates needed him to be, especially Hefti. His passing was very accurate and he won seven out of eight duels. Once he settles in, I’m now confident he’s going to start and raise the level of team. But will he really be playing at right midfield? Hmm.

Jackson Hopkins - 5 - He started brightly, creating danger on the dribble and winning duels on defense, and I started to wonder if playing inverted was somehow the solution to the “where to play Hopkins” problem. Then his usual foibles reappeared. He missed several seemingly straightforward passes and touches in the final third and seemed to fade out of the game in the second half.

Louis Munteanu - 6 - He’s also quite wasteful in the final third and is still too disconnected from the rest of the team, but, man, he really has his moments. Kind of rough in the first half, but he contributed to Baribo’s goal (if you go back far enough, at least, as I did in my video). I wanted him subbed for Ordaz long before he was, yet I have to admit he seems to do better later in games and in this one, he hit an absolutely brilliant diagonal pass to Jared Stroud that could have won the game if Stroud’s cross toward a wide open Kijima wasn’t blocked.

Tai Baribo - 7 - Really just two chances, both headers from tight angles. He scored one of them. That’s what you want from your striker and he provided it, but he also had some good moments in the buildup and put in a lot of work defending hard against the ball, sometimes coming all the way back to DC’s box to help.

Substitutes

Jared Stroud - 4 - Maybe this is harsh, but it’s so frustrating how often his crosses are blocked. Sometimes DC gets a corner out of it, but it can be really costly, such as late in this one where he had the opportunity to put Kijima in on goal. I also noticed him ball-watching on one of Montréal’s golden opportunities late in the game.

Hosei Kijima - 5 - Just five touches as DC bunkered in for the last part of the match. I guess it was at least good that he was making the run I keep mentioning.

Nathan Ordaz - N/A - Very short cameo but managed to complete two of two passes, so that’s something.

Nikola Markovic - N/A - One touch in another very short cameo.

Standings

Once again DC United is in 9th place and holding down the last playoff spot. They’re now just a single point behind their traditional nemesis, the New York Red Bulls, who managed to lose to Atlanta United this past weekend. DC is also three points clear of Orlando City with a much better goal difference, so for one more week at least they can’t possibly drop lower than ninth place. They’re 21st in the Supporter’s Shield standings, level on points but behind Portland, Seattle, and San Diego.

Tai Baribo scored in his fifth consecutive game for his twelfth goal on the season. That means he’s now just a single goal behind the Golden Boot co-leaders: NYCFC’s Nicolás Fernández Mercau, FC Dallas’ Petar Musa, and the departed Hugo Cuypers. [Edit: Petar Musa scored Sunday night, so he now has sole possession of the Golden Boot lead with 14 goals and Baribo is two behind him and one behind Fernández Merau.] Baribo is tied with three other players at twelve: Nashville’s Sam Surridge, an obscure Inter Miami player named Lionel Messi, and Houston’s Sergio Santos.

Coming Up

On Wednesday, DC United takes on the New England Revolution at Audi Field. The Revs were unexpectedly flying high earlier in the season and are still in fourth place, but their form seems to have slipped since World Cup break. Former DC homegrown Griffin Yow has lost his starting spot but is likely to at least some some minutes as a sub.

Next, DC travels to Charlotte FC, who got two wins over Liga MX teams but failed to advance to the Leagues Cup knockout round. Then it’s back to DC to host Son Heung-min and LAFC.

Extra Time

Tai Baribo has now scored a goal for five games straight. For paid subscribers, I’m going to take a quick walk through DC United history to see how rare a streak like this is. Spoiler alert: not record-breaking, but quite rare. There are some big names that haven’t even come close.

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If I were in the team’s marketing department, which would a disaster by the way because I know nothing about marketing, I’d have leaned into this and advertised it as “future stars” or “young guns” or something. But getting a large crowd out on a Wednesday night is tough. I’m a case in point: there was no slogan enticing enough to get me out to Audi Field, my schedule just didn’t allow it.

The other news from the past week is that Conner Antley has been loaned to the Tampa Bay Rowdies for the rest of the season (and, one assumes, the rest of his DC United contract). I liked Antley a lot because he played better than we all expected a USL veteran to play, he always worked very hard, and he’s been one of the few players lately to exhibit some genuine charisma for the team’s social media team. Antley played a fair amount last season after Weiler joined the team and was very positive about him during the offseason, but he probably got more minutes in social media videos than he did on the field this season (29 minutes in four appearances).

For all his hustle, Antley has some real limitations on the ball, and I think recent acquisitions like Silvan Hefti and Andre Dozzell show that for all the talk of playing Philly-style murderball, René Weiler and Erkut Sogut are trying to raise the team’s technical floor. The arrival of new fullback Kimito Nono seems to have pushed Antley off the bottom of the depth chart.

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Guessing the Lineup

We all know René Weiler is comfortable with a specific set of starters, so absent some kind of training injury the expectation is his normal starting eleven. The catch is that Lucas Bartlett, who has played all but four minutes of the season thus far, got his fifth yellow card in the last match and is suspended for this one. Worse, despite the time off it seems that Kye Rowles is questionable. From the way Weiler talked at the press conference, I’m going to assume Rowles won’t be able to play either.

No one thought to ask whether Kimito Nono has gotten his work permit, but he seems like to make his debut off the bench.

We’ll see if someone from the doghouse gets on to the bench for this game or if, as I’m going to guess, Weiler rosters his third-string goalkeeper.

Backup goalkeepers: Alex Bono, Grant Leveille

Backup defenders: Matti Peltola, Kimito Nono

Backup attackers: Nathan Ordaz, Jared Stroud, Hosei Kijima, Oscar Avilez, Kamil Castillo

Suspended: Lucas Bartlett

Not selected: Jacob Murrell, Caden Clark, Gavin Turner

Injured: Kye Rowles, Jordan Farr, Gabe Segal

On loan: Conner Antley, Hakim Karamoko, Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs

The Opposition: CF Montréal

For a long time, negativity in DC United fan circles focused on the fact ownership was unwilling to spend. I’ve written about this a number of times before so I don’t need to do it again, but suffice to say it was true until Audi Field was built but basically hasn’t been accurate since then. These days I think the online criticism of ownership has moved to more accurate complaints, but it took a while for fans to realize that actually the team was spending a fair amount of money on the roster. Not huge amounts, mind you. But DC has been a midtable spending team for a while. It’s just that it was spending the money poorly.

Anyway, I mention all this because CF Montréal is basically what DC would look like if all that criticism had been accurate. For last few years, they’ve been at or very close to the absolute bottom in roster spending. And whereas Philadelphia has had some success while spending bottom dollar thanks to savvy (or perhaps lucky) roster moves, Montréal’s roster moves rarely make sense even on paper.

Take Designated Players. We often talk about my general rule that if you want to contend for trophies in MLS you need three good DPs. A few teams win trophies with two, but it’s rare. And it’s consequently been a frustration that DC rarely has more than two DPs simultaneously.

Well, from what I can tell, Montréal has never had more than one DP since 2021. I don’t mean they only had one DP on the field. That’s certainly been the case a lot at DC due to injuries and so forth. But no: just one DP on the roster. And we’re not talking Christian Benteke either. Recent DPs include Giacomo Vrioni, a failed New England Revolution DP who was so out of favor he arrived on the sort of “take him, please, we’ll pay most of his salary” deal that DC used to send Mateusz Klich to Atlanta. Last summer, Vrioni left and Montréal brought in Ivan Jaime on loan, a Portugese player who failed to catch on in La Liga and then failed to make any impact with Montréal either.

But now Jaime is gone and Montréal just announced their latest DP: Alexis Sanchez. Unlike Vrioni and Jaime, Sanchez is a genuine superstar. He had 24 goals and 10 assists in a single season for Arsenal in the Premier League! If he could tear up the EPL, he certainly could be successful in MLS. The problem is, that was ten years ago. Sanchez is 37.

Now to be fair, a couple years ago, when he was 33, he was still effective for Marseille in Ligue 1. But for most professional athletes, there’s a big difference between 33 and 37, so we’ll see if he can provide a Luis Suárez sort of performance. Except I assume we won’t see him, seeing as they only announced this yesterday. Montréal’s press release quotes their sporting director as hoping he’ll have an “immediate” impact but it doesn’t seem likely he’ll have his work permit in time for the game.

Anyway, you’d think that between the underspending and the bizarre roster moves, DC United would be able to beat Montréal, but, uh, nope. The lifetime head-to-head between the two teams is perfectly balanced: 11W-12D-11L for each team. DC has scored four more goals, for whatever that’s worth. That balance extends to the recent results: the last three games they’ve played have been draws: 0-0 in March of last year, 1-1 in August of last year, and then 4-4 in May. I’m pretty sure if you plot this out, this match is slated to be 9-9.

I joke, but in the last game Montréal forward Prince Owusu really seemed like he could score 9 against DC, so maybe we shouldn’t rule that out. Owusu isn’t a DP but he’s producing like one with 10 goals and 6 assists. He’s tall, strong, physical, and can shoot. He has more than twice as many goals as the team’s second place player (Wiki Carmona with 4) and twice as many assists as the second place in that category (Matthew Longstaff has 3). Admittedly Owusu scored four of his goals via penalties, but let’s give him that since he’s playing for Montréal. Imagine how well he’d be doing on almost any other team!

In terms of recent form, they haven’t won since the World Cup break, but they’ve had a tough slate. They drew Toronto, lost to Nashville, lost to Miami, and then drew New England.

There’s really not much else to say. Their fellow Canadian team Toronto isn’t much better, but is packed with notable players. Montréal is Owusu and a bunch of journeyman until Sanchez arrives. If you are enough of a diehard US National Team fan that you follow the youth national teams, you might recognize the names of once-exciting prospects like Jalen Neal or Brandon Craig. The closest connection with DC United I can think of is that Fabian Herbers gets some sub minutes and he was the co-host of Julian Gressel’s podcast when Gressel with was with DC.

What I’m Looking For

I obviously don’t have much respect for Montréal’s roster, but MLS teams are close enough together that to be confident on the road, you have to be a lot better than DC United has been in nearly a decade.

I tend to think Lucas Bartlett is underrated by a lot of DC fans, so I’m concerned his absence will be felt. Sean Nealis didn’t look great at the start of the season but has done better since his return from injury. Kye Rowles really struggled with Owusu late in the last match. If Markovic plays I think he’ll be up for the physical challenge, but he’s struggled with marking players tightly enough.

Then there’s Nathan Ordaz, who has looked like he deserves more minutes, and whether we might see the 4-3-3 shape that Weiler used when subbing Ordaz on in the previous game. And perhaps a debut for Kimito Nono?

Extra Time

For paid subscribers, this week I’m going to try to visualize the rising and falling fortunes of DC’s various bench players. With Weiler unwilling to go to his bench if he can possibly avoid it, minutes have been hard to come by. It can be hard to track who’s getting five minutes and who’s getting left off entirely as the games go by. Even as closely as I follow the team, putting this together I was surprised by a few things.

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Game Context

Nashville came into the game struggling with injuries, distracted by the All-Star game the previous Wednesday, and perhaps looking forward to Leagues Cup. Still, they’ve spent the last few games mostly grinding out wins despite their injury issues and they hoped to do the same against a DC United team that is improved over last year but hasn’t earned much respect around the league yet.

For their part, DC United was looking to improve on its poor home record and show that the 2-2 draw they earned in Nashville a few months ago wasn’t a fluke.

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #2 (Nashville SC) vs. #18 (DC United).

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Formation

The starting lineup was the same starters we’ve seen since the World Cup break. At this point we have to say that Brandon Servania has clearly won the starting job:

Still the same ol’ 4-4-2 formation. There’s almost no point to having this section in my game reviews…

Except, shockingly, with DC down 1-2 and chasing an equalizer, René Weiler changed formations in the 65th minute. Matti Peltola and Nathan Ordaz subbed on for Brandon Servania and Jackson Hopkins respectively, and to everyone’s surprise (including the DC players, as we’ll get into in the next section) the team started lining up in a 4-3-3:

They stuck with that shape through the end of the game. The only other sub was Jared Stroud coming in for Louis Munteanu very late in the game.

Game Flow and Goal Breakdowns

Kickoff through Halftime

I’m not sure if more casual fans in Audi Field’s sellout crowd appreciated it, but I really enjoyed the first half as a tactics chess match. DC United, as always, was content to sit back and let Nashville have the ball. The line of confrontation was just beyond midfield. Nashville played the ball back and forth along their back line, hunting for a way through DC’s compact defense and, failing that, for a way to get one of their best players in an isolated one-on-one they could win to unbalance the defense. Meanwhile, DC players carefully shifted back and forth, managed their defense assignments, and looked to aggressively counterattack whenever Nashville turned the ball over.

I was pleasantly surprised by how well DC did executing the game plan. DC’s usual problem is they just don’t have the quality to execute the four or five rapid passes it takes to really launch a deadly counterattack. In this game, they…well, they still didn’t quite have the quality, but they were closer. Andre Dozzell helped, but Brandon Servania and especially Jackson Hopkins were doing a lot better than they usually do. But ultimately, other than a chance in the box that required Louis Munteanu to cut back to his weaker left foot, DC couldn’t generate the kind of shooting positions they needed.

Nashville isn’t really a team that breaks down a bunker with tiki-taka brilliance. They do it by having their star players win 1v1 battles. One of those players is Andy Najar. He did get past his man to where he cross a few times, but just as often he came out second best to Keisuke Kurokawa and especially Peglow. DC seemed to be looking for opportunities to attack the space Najar vacated when he came forward and came close to pulling this off.

But Nashville’s biggest star is Hany Mukhtar, a player who is the complete package: quick, powerful, good touch, great vision, and a good finisher. After over thirty minutes of being stymied by DC and looking shaky defending DC’s counters, Nashville lucked out with a goal that came from very little.

32’ Sam Surridge (PK) 0-1

In the stadium I felt very hard done by and I assume DC United did as well. It’s not that the call was wrong. Obviously it was a handball and by rule a penalty is the correct call, but it’s one of those penalties that just didn’t feel earned. Yes, Mukhtar did well to get into that position, but he still didn’t have any real dangerous options.

It was hard to feel quite as aggrieved after Nashville scored from the run of play less than ten minutes later.

40’ Shak Mohammed 0-2

Once again it was Hany Mukhtar cutting through DC’s defense, and while this goal was more deserved, it still required the blocked shot to land perfectly for Mohammed to run on to for his second attempt. It was a very deflating second goal to give up before halftime, but to their credit DC never actually deflated.

Halftime through 65’

My first impression after halftime was that while DC wasn’t playing badly per se, they certainly didn’t look like they could score two goals. But anything can happen on a corner kick! Like, for example, a five minute stoppage for VAR.

56’ Silvan Hefti 1-2

Hefti’s goal felt a little out-of-nowhere, but clearly DC United was back in it once they were just one goal down and the crowd was getting excited. Then we got the subs.

65’ through Full Time

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen so much confusion among DC United players about how to lineup after subs were made. Usually when a formation changes like this, a new player will just hold up one number, e.g. “back three”, and that’ll be enough. I thought Nathan Ordaz was going to have to get out a chalkboard there for a minute. That really made me wonder: were they going to a formation they’d never practiced?

But after that initial confusion, DC settled into the 4-3-3 and the midfield in particular of Peltola, Peglow, and Dozzell seemed well drilled. The whole team (except maybe Munteanu) looked so comfortable that it must be something they’ve worked on in practice a fair amount. Maybe it helps that in the last fifteen years the 4-3-3 has been, by far, the most common formation in world soccer, though this was an unusually aggressive version of it with DC playing three true forwards in the front line.

The team that was uncomfortable was Nashville, who were suddenly back on their heels. Amid the heat and with his best players having traveled and played midweek at the All-Star game, Nashville coach BJ Callaghan subbed out Mukhtar and, I think, gambled that they could hold the 2-1 lead against DC’s attack.

Normally, that’s probably a good bet, but with the crowd roaring and DC finally controlling the ball in its much more aggressive formation, the attackers were coming in waves at Nashville’s goal.

77’ Tai Baribo 2-2

After Tai Baribo’s goal, the pressure mounted and I thought for sure there was a third goal in the game, though it could have been one for Nashville on the counterattack.

But sometime after the eightieth minute, DC finally seemed to wilt a bit in the heat. They still had two more chances, with Peglow hitting the post at the end of regulation and a Baribo header in stoppage time, but Nashville looked slightly more likely to score of the two teams even though Andy Najar and Eddi Tegseth were subbed out in the 84th minute and, with them, most of the team’s remaining quality on the ball. But for their part DC had also several of its key players who were exhausted and probably should have been substituted, but of course Weiler doesn’t trust his bench. Rowles, Peglow, and especially Hefti were really struggling.

Jared Stroud didn’t get the memo, sprinting behind Nashville’s defense after Sean Johnson claimed the ball and looking very annoyed that Johnson didn’t try to quickly play him over the top. Baribo wanted to push for the winner as well, but Sean Johnson was adamant about taking his time and Weiler wasn’t telling him to do anything different. Despite staying in the 4-3-3, Weiler was content to take the draw.

Expected Goals

DC had the better of the expected goals, 1.74 - 1.52, and out-shot Nashville 16 - 10. The first half was quite even, although Nashville’s total xG was 1.05, they only had 0.26 non-penalty xG, exactly the same amount as DC. DC also outshot them 5-3. If you think carefully, you’ll realize that means Nashville’s only shots in the first half were the penalty kick, Mohammed’s blocked shot, and then the goal he scored after recovering the blocked shot. DC had a decisive xG advantage in the second half, 1.48 - 0.47, outshooting Nashville 11-7.

Silvan Hefti’s goal was just 0.05 xG. That seems a little low considering he was closer than the penalty spot when he took it, but maybe the model penalized it for being a volley. The xGOT was 0.85 since he placed it perfectly just inside the near post. Baribo’s goal was 0.10 xG, and at just 0.37 xGOT it was considered savable by Opta. DC’s highest xG chance was Baribo’s 70th minute shot, I believe the one where the ball shockingly dribbled through to him. That was worth 0.70 xG, though in practice the goalkeeper had come out and that was going to make it very hard.

Surridge’s penalty was 0.79 xG, like all penalties. Shak Mohammed’s goal was 0.22 xG. Otherwise, Nashville’s highest xG chance was Ahmed Qasem’s 0.13 xG blocked shot just after the start of the second half.

Player Ratings

Starters

Sean Johnson - 5 - I don’t blame him for either goal, but with no saves this game and his usual underwhelming passing, there wasn’t much for him to contribute.

Keisuke Kurokawa - 5 - Overall a decent game from him, but he’s one of several players who could have done better on Nashville’s second goal.

Kye Rowles - 6 - Along with Bartlett, kept Surridge quiet. I think he did the right thing coming out on the second Nashville goal, and even if he didn’t actually head the ball, his battle in the box helped produce DC’s first.

Lucas Bartlett - 6 - Another strong game in the air, but he got a yellow card and is going to be suspended for what would have been his rematch against Prince Owusu in Montréal.

Silvan Hefti - 6 - Scored an opportunistic but very well taken goal and both of Nashville’s goals came from the other side. He wilted a little bit late in the game, but there was no one Weiler was willing to sub on for him (yet).

Andre Dozzell - 5 - Sloppier than his previous two games. Still tidier than Servania or Peltola, don’t get me wrong, but he had a few more mistakes this game than I expected. He’s still not as frequently involved as I’d like, but I think I’m just going to have to get used to that.

Brandon Servania - 4 - Did well at times, but he made mistakes that directly led to both Nashville goals. He’s far from the first player to get schooled by Hany Mukhtar, but this isn’t the sort of game that is going to make fans stop asking for Peltola to start.

Peglow - 6 - Andy Najar got the better of him a few times, but Peglow gave at least as good as he got in that battle. He looked pretty good in the midfield trio of the new formation in the second half, but then again it was his turnover in the middle of the field in the first half that ultimately led to Nashville’s second goal.

Jackson Hopkins - 5 - I was really impressed with his calm passing at times in the first half, but we’re still just seeing flashes from him and not consistently good plays.

Louis Munteanu - 6 - I’m not going to check, but 45 touches feels like it might be a season high. Managed to create a little bit for his teammates, including the assist, but also took five shots. Really did not look like a plausible winger in the 4-3-3, however. It was cringe-inducing when Dozzell played a diagonal ball for him to run on to and he had absolutely no ability to make any sort of play on it.

Tai Baribo - 7 - He works hard, gets in good positions, and scores goals. Still can’t believe Philadelphia let him go.

Substitutes

Matti Peltola - 6 - Maybe it was the opposition’s tired legs, but he looked great out there. Had a great tackle and pass to start the sequence for DC’s second goal. I still would like to see him start with Dozzell.

Nathan Ordaz - 5 - Not very involved, just eleven touches in 26 minutes. His teammates are still learning his runs, I think. I’d really like to see him in the right midfield spot instead of forward, but the winger role might suit him if this 4-3-3 wasn’t a fluke.

Jared Stroud - 5 - I appreciate his enthusiasm and desire to win the game in stoppage time. He is not good enough to play winger in MLS, however. Not even remotely. Just miles and miles away from being good enough. But…he still makes more sense in that position than Louis Munteanu.

Standings

The draw sees DC United rise from 9th up to…9th place in the Eastern Conference. Moving up the table is hard, especially when you draw a lot more than you win. DC’s just two points behind the Red Bulls and Charlotte in 7th and 8th. Meanwhile, they are three points clear of Orlando and Columbus in 10th and 11th. DC’s in 19th in the Supporter’s Shield standings.

Tai Baribo is now up to 11 goals, putting him just one behind the vacationing Lionel Messi and two behind the three way tie for the Golden Boot lead of the departed Hugo Cuypers, Dallas’ Peter Musa, and NYCFC’s Nicolás Fernández Mercau. Although there’s just four players ahead of Baribo, he’s tied with seven other players on eleven goals. He’s played fewer minutes than any of them except Nashville’s Sam Surridge, for whatever that’s worth. Which isn’t much, since MLS uses assists as the first tiebreaker and Baribo has, uh, zero.

Coming Up

DC United is traveling to Canada for their second match against CF Montréal. Montréal is a bad team with a good forward. In the first game against DC, Prince Owusu was nearly unstoppable, and he’s had a lot of success against other teams as well.

But wait, I should have said that the game that’s coming up is DC United’s “oops everything else fell through” friendly against Loudoun United on Wednesday. How could the “DMV Derby” possibly have slipped my mind?

Anyway, after the Montréal game, DC is back at Audi Field the following Wednesday to take on the New England Revolution, then away at Charlotte FC the following Saturday.

Extra Time

This week, for paid subscribers, let’s think about how DC’s record this season is stacking up to the past. When was the last time DC was on pace to have this many draws? Or this few losses?

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Okay, okay, I’ll be honest, even a DC win is just going to be viewed as Nashville losing. Still, maybe there’s a little extra motivation in taking on a team that had four players at the All-Star game.

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Guessing the Lineup

Will Matti Peltola start or still be in the…well, not the doghouse. The subhouse? I’m going to guess Brandon Servania and Jackson Hopkins retain their positions, but hopefully we’ll see more minutes from Nathan Ordaz than previously. Kye Rowles is off the injury report, so I’m assuming he’ll start again. Conner Antley is off the injury report as well, so even though new signing Kimito Nono isn’t available yet, this could finally be a game where DC doesn’t have two goalkeepers on the bench!

Backup goalkeeper: Alex Bono

Backup defenders: Matti Peltola, Nikola Markovic, Sean Nealis

Backup attackers: Nathan Ordaz, Jared Stroud, Hosei Kijima, Gavin Turner, Oscar Avilez

Not selected: Jacob Murrell, Conner Antley, Caden Clark, Kamil Castillo, Grant Leveille

Injured: Gabe Segal, Jordan Farr

On loan: Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Hakim Karamoko

The Opposition: Nashville SC

Exactly halfway through the 2026 MLS season, Nashville leads the league with 39 points. They’ve got a very good offense (3rd in the Eastern Conference in goals scored) and the very best defense by a large margin: just 12 goals given up in those 17 games! That’s four goals fewer than Vancouver’s 16 goals allowed.

There’s an easy, simple story for their success: they were already pretty good (6th in last year’s tough Eastern Conference) with two good DPs (former MVP attacking midfielder Hani Mukhtar and forward Sam Surridge) and added a third DP who was already a strong MLS winger (Cristian Espinoza). Three strong DPs is by far the most common path to trophy contention in MLS.

Their DPs are achieving the kind of offensive balance that Thanos would appreciate. Surridge: 10 goals, 0 assists. Mukhtar, 6 goals and 4 assists. Espinoza: 3 goals and 6 assists. 10, 10, and 9 goal contributions. Their efforts have been supported by 5 goals and 2 assists from young Costa Rican Warren Madrigal and you’re really in business. Then there’s Andy Najar, who DC fans know is a constant threat to unbalance the opposition from the defense even if he only has three assists.

It’s not quite as balanced as it looks because they’ve all played different amounts of minutes. Mukhtar has played fifteen games worth of minutes out of seventeen, Espinoza eleven, and Surridge just eight. Surridge has two penalties, so he’s scoring almost exactly one non-penalty goal per game. That’s the sort of pace that puts a player in MVP contention. It’s been a bit lumpy, though: Surridge has scored those ten goals in just five actual games because he’s had three braces and a hat trick.

It was only seven games ago that Nashville played DC, but it was back at the beginning of May so you’ll be forgiven for not remembering all the details. In that game DC took a shocking two goal lead in the first half, and despite Mukhtar, Espinoza, and Najar winning individual battles, DC looked to be cruising to a comfortable road win. Then Silvan Hefti got a red card midway through the second half and DC dove into the bunker. Fortunately, Surridge wasn’t playing, but Madrigal scored two to tie the game before DC was able to escape with a point.

At the time, I had thought that might be a good time to play Nashville. They were in the middle of a packed schedule, both their starting central midfielders were hurt in addition to Surridge, and I thought their coach would be tempted to rotate some of. his other starters. As it happened, they didn’t rotate, but I think they did suffer from fatigue and their midfield injuries.

Times have changed, but…this also might be a good time to play Nashville? Here’s the case this time. Several of their best players traveled to the All-Star game and played in it on Wednesday. Hany Mukhtar started and Surridge, Najar, and goalkeeper Brian Schwalke all got minutes. And coming up on the Wednesday after the DC game, they’ll be starting their Leagues Cup campaign against Léon. So it’s another crowded schedule. Surridge is healthy, but they still won’t have all three DPs on the field because Cristian Espinoza is out. And they started the same backup central midfielders last Saturday that they had to use in early May against DC because Patrick Yazbeck is still out with the same long-term injury and Edvard Tagseth is only just coming back from a knock. Tagseth is off the injury report, so perhaps he’ll start, but meanwhile outside midfielder Alex Muyl is out this time.

Nashville fans are in such a bad mood about the teams’ injury situation and its impact on their recent form that I eagerly pulled up their recent results expecting to see a big dip. Instead, all I saw was Ws. They won five straight games after that draw against DC United! Sure, they lost 0-1 in Orlando in their most recent game, but sheesh! DC has only won five games all season!

The fans are mad not because they are losing lots of games, but because they seem sure to lose the Supporter’s Shield lead to Miami before the team gets healthy. I get it. Life is tough. Still, the dip in form is real. Since the World Cup break, they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents, more like the opposite…a victim’s row, I guess? Nashville won 1-0 against Atlanta United, 1-0 against CF Montréal, both at home, and then lost in Orlando 0-1. Great teams find a way to grind out results, we all know the clichés, but still, not quite what you’d expect from the best team in the league.

What I’m Looking For

With at least one backup in central midfield for Nashville, I’m hoping to see DC United’s improved midfield be able to hold their own at home, even against a good team. Maybe “hoping” is too strong. Weiler usually doesn’t want his players to even contest the midfield. Still, in the first game Nashville looked good when they could get the ball to their attackers but frequently struggled in the build-up, turning it over under pressure in their own half. It will be a lot of the same players in this game trying to do the same thing, one suspects.

DC also scored one of its many set piece goals in that game. Nashville opted not to mark Lucas Bartlett due to their zonal scheme, so Bartlett just ran between two of the zone defenders and headed it in the goal. If they’re going to do that again, so should he.

Extra Time

For paid subscribers, I have some off-the-cuff musings about Kimito Nono, the 24-year-old Japanese right back whose signing was announced by DC United earlier in the week, and what that means for other players on the roster.

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Game Context

Toronto was playing its third road game in a week. Coming off two 0-0 draws, they were still struggling with fitness issues that saw Djordje Mihailovic only able to play against DC as a substitute and Josh Sargent miss the game entirely.

DC United started this phase of the season by scratching out a point on the road in Houston but hoped to improve on its lackluster home record (just two wins in seven games).

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #22 (DC United) vs. #26 (Toronto FC).

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Formation

The usual starters lined up in the usual 4-4-2, but there were two changes from what I’d guessed in the preview. First, Brandon Servania again got the start over Matti Peltola. And second, Kye Rowles surprised me by being ready to start after missing the game just three days earlier. Hopefully he didn’t come back too soon. He had to be subbed out after 80 minutes.

Once again, René Weiler used all five subs, and once again, Matti Peltola came in early in the second half and joined Brandon Servania in central midfield, pushing Andre Dozzell to right midfield. Jared Stroud, Sean Nealis, and Hosei Kijima played their usual roles. Nathan Ordaz got another cameo at forward.

Game Flow and Goal Breakdowns

Kickoff through Halftime

Despite presumably being more tired than the beginning of the Houston game, some combination of the weather, the opponent, and just how players were feeling that day led DC to look significantly better right from the start. There were just two problems.

One, for a while DC wasn’t translating looking better than Toronto into actual scoring. Part of the problem seemed to be Keisuke Kurokawa repeatedly taking corner kicks that were easy takes for the goalkeeper. But also a notable offender here was Peglow, who missed a golden opportunity so badly the MLS announcer sympathetically said well, it was on his weaker right foot. Buddy, I said to the screen, Peglow plays inverted on the left, he is right-footed! The announcer pretended he didn’t hear me. This is the problem with being sick and not being able to attend the game.

The other problem was that while Toronto wasn’t able to mount all that many dangerous attacks, when the danger did come, it looked really dangerous. DC’s defense looked shaky, particularly on the left, and it seemed sure that Toronto would score at some point.

Fortunately, Kurokawa eventually found the exact right spot for his corner kick.

41’ Kobe Franklin (Own Goal) 1-0

Halftime through 76’

DC initially looked okay after halftime, but it soon became clear that Toronto was dialing up the aggression and that DC was collapsing back into a bunker.

To be honest, this phase of the game was really disappointing. DC was at home and playing against a team below them in the standings that was missing several of its better players. Yet DC was acting like they were Cape Verde against Spain. I know MLS wants to provide people more of that great World Cup action, but I don’t think that was what they had in mind!

DC brought on Jared Stroud and Matti Peltola, which did absolutely nothing to stem the tide, while Toronto brought on Djordje Mihailovic and got considerably more dangerous. Toronto scoring seemed inevitable. The only surprise was how long it took them to get the goal.

76’ Theo Corbeanu 1-1

76’ through Full time

Soccer is a funny game. Toronto was attacking in waves and looked like they were going to win the game 4-1, but as it turned out Theo Corbeanu’s volley was Toronto’s last shot of the game. Instead, the goal seemed to steady DC, and while scoring from the run of play was still going to be a challenge, now it was DC pushing Toronto back and Toronto’s goalkeeper trying to slow down the game.

90+10’ Tai Baribo (PK) 2-1

Expected Goals

DC United outshot Toronto 17-13 and earned a seemingly decisive victory in expected goals, winning 2.43 to 1.42. On one hand, it was much a narrower “win” when you remember Baribo’s penalty was an automatic 0.79 xG. On the other, this wasn’t one of those penalties where an incredibly non-dangerous situation became a penalty due to a clipped heel or lucky handball, DC “earned” the penalty with decisive play in the box.

As anyone who watched the game could tell you, DC had a clear edge in the first half, with 1.18 xG to Toronto’s 0.30 and outshooting them 9-4. Then, in the second half, DC’s xG advantage was 1.25 - 1.12 (with, again, almost all of the xG coming in stoppage time with the penalty) as they got outshot by Toronto 8-9.

Another consideration: own goals aren’t given xG, but so far in the Opta data it looks like Kye Rowles is still being given credit for the goal, tallying 0.19 xG. Peglow’s terrible miss in the 13th minute was 0.60 xG, which has to be one of DC’s “best” unscored shots this season.

Theo Corbeanu’s equalizer was 0.33 xG. It was quite close, but I believe volleys are given a big haircut by the model. Their highest non-scoring xG shot was Jonathan Osorio’s 0.20 header that was part of that same play, so in the old FBref algorithm Toronto wouldn’t have nearly so much total xG since it just took the maximum from a single possession.

Player Ratings

Starters

Sean Johnson - 7 - The Opta stats say he prevented just 0.2 goals, and that basically Toronto was shooting everything right at him, but I only believe the goalkeeping stats when they reinforce what I already think. It really felt like he was the only one keeping DC in this match for about a twenty minute stretch.

Keisuke Kurokawa - 6 - Much, much better going forward than against Houston, which was good to see. Corner kicks left a lot to be desired, until DC scored off one. Fotmob thinks he won 10/13 duels, which is unbelievable. Literally unbelievable, because it still felt like Toronto in general and Corbeanu in particular was advancing easily down his side. Still, a much better performance.

Kye Rowles - 5 - A few nice passes, got nutmegged once, oh, and scored a goal! Kind of. Well, maybe not. Let’s say he forced the goal.

Lucas Bartlett - 5 - Didn’t seem like one of his better games, no terrible giveaways at least but he struggled at times with Toronto’s pressure.

Silvan Hefti - 6 - This was a really strong game for Hefti. He looked good going forward and even better defensively. I know I said he had some blame for Toronto’s goal, but it wasn’t much, and otherwise he had a great game. I guess he has to be careful going forward since he doesn’t have as much recovery speed as Kurokawa, but it would be nice to be able to get him more involved in the attack.

Andre Dozzell - 6 - Any time DC looks good passing he’s almost certainly involved, but I felt like Toronto did a better job than Houston did denying him the ball in central midfield, which is one of my worries about him. His touch rate was low enough that when Weiler again moved him out to the right again, this time I was like, well, fine, if he’s not getting many touches, might as well be getting them closer to goal. And if anything, he seemed more involved out there. But overall it was another strong game. He was credited with winning 5/8 duels and of course earning the game-winning penalty. He also made two saves on the goal line, so that was new! They should really track that stat for field players.

Brandon Servania - 5 - More involved this game than against Houston, leading to both some good moments and some times where he lost the ball too cheaply. Definitely didn’t play badly, but still not making an affirmative case to start in my opinion.

Peglow - 6 - Much improved over the Houston game and looked really good at times playing give-and-gos in possession. But at least a little bit of Toronto’s success on DC’s left side was probably on him, and his missed shot in the box was painful.

Jackson Hopkins - 5 - A few good moments, most notably in the build-up leading to the corner for the first goal, but he still isn’t doing enough for my taste to be safe from Ordaz or possibly Kijima taking his spot.

Louis Munteanu - 5 - I just don’t know what to make of him. At times he just seems too slow. That makes him hard for his teammates to find and leaves him coming in second-best on scrambles for loose balls, like the opportunity where he ended up kicking Walker Zimmerman instead of the ball. But it was Munteanu’s long distance shot that earned the corner DC scored its first goal on, and after last game where he somehow only hit 2 passes, he had a number of nice passes to continue attacks in this game. Then, on the other hand, you have the sequence where he lost three aerial duels to Walker Zimmerman in the space of about twenty seconds, getting a yellow card on the last one. I know Zimmerman is really good in the air, but man, come on. Munteanu looked more dangerous late in the game when tired legs meant there was more space for him to work in, so I wouldn’t mind seeing him coming on for Ordaz instead of vice versa.

Tai Baribo - 6 - Besides his very well-taken penalty, his only shot was a Munteanu-style long range blast, so his teammates still aren’t finding his runs. But it’s encouraging that they seemed to be getting closer. Zimmerman had to slide to poke away several balls along the ground. Besides everything else, he really does a lot of defending.

Substitutes

Jared Stroud - 4 - 1/4 passing in about 30 minutes on the field. He did have one nice tackle, but I don’t know, hard to believe there isn’t anyone else who could be getting these minutes, starting with Kijima but going on down the bench.

Matti Peltola - 4 - “Okay,” I thought after Peltola had a bad giveaway at midfield and then conceded the free kick that Toronto ended up scoring on, “so maybe this is why Weiler is playing Servania instead.” It’s weird, Peltola was a player who looked instantly better when Weiler arrived, but somehow it feels like he’s regressed during the World Cup break.

Hosei Kijima - 5 - Brought some good energy. It wasn’t always positive, like when he made a great run but then just kept going until he was tackled at the top of the box, but energy is what we want to see in a substitute. His deflected cross is what Dozzell ran on to for the penalty in stoppage time. It wouldn’t be crazy to start Kijima, but maybe let’s see him sub in earlier first.

Sean Nealis - 5 - Mostly uneventful since DC mostly had the advantage after he came on, but his mistake contributed to a good Toronto chance right at the end of regulation.

Nathan Ordaz - 5 - Less impact in this game than his debut and only five touches, but I’m still ready to see more of him.

Standings

The big win vaults DC United from 9th in the Eastern Conference all the way up to…9th in the Eastern Conference. They’re tied at 22 points with the Red Bulls and have a much better goal difference, but for some reason MLS uses wins as the first tiebreaker. They’re now at 18th in the Supporter’s Shield standings, having jumped Colorado Rapids and the LA Galaxy.

Another goal for Tai Baribo gets him into double digits. Last time I said there were 12 players with 9 or more goals, well, now he’s in more rarified air as just 10 players now have 10 or more goals. So far this year, the Golden Boot race looks like an early stage of the Tour de France, with a big pack and no one separating yet. Petar Musa of FC Dallas continues to set the pace with 13. The most notable other player in the mix is Leo Messi, who is taking a post-World Cup vacation I guess but is just behind Musa with 12 whenever he gets back to the league.

Coming Up

Next Saturday, DC United hosts the Supporter’s Shield leaders Nashville SC at Audi Field. Nashville churned out five straight wins since drawing DC at home back on May 9th, but they just lost 0-1 against Orlando City. With Leagues Cup starting for them the following Wednesday and some of their star players banged up (it looks like their excellent midfielder Patrick Yazbeck and winger Cristian Espinoza both will still be out) it’s not a bad time for DC to try to get more points out of an objectively better team.

Then DC enjoys a week of rest as a reward for not qualifying for Leagues Cup, followed by road games against the perennially-struggling CF Montréal and the perennially-struggling-but-surprisingly-good-this-year New England Revolution.

Extra Time

For paid subscribers, I want to look at how reliant DC has become on set piece goals. The game-winning penalty was earned in the run of play, but their other goal this game was off a corner, their only goal against Houston was from a throw-in, and by my reckoning all four goals against Montréal were set piece goals.

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My particular style of game review prioritizes depth over timeliness and I don’t make any promises about when they come out, but in practice they are normally out about two days after a match. But with the Toronto match happening just three days after combined with the whole family being sick, I decided to prioritize the Toronto preview.

But better late than never: I know the Toronto game already happened, but let’s go back to the Houston match first.

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Game Context

Houston were looking to keep their momentum from before the World Cup break. Something I failed to mention in my preview, but the MLS commentators mentioned at least a dozen times, was that they had been in a good run of form. I didn’t mention it because it really depends on how you look at it: seven wins in eleven games sounds really good, but that’s all competitions. If you just look at the regular season, it’s five wins in nine, and the most recent three were an 0-3 loss, a 1-0 win, and a 1-1 draw.

DC United always plays the same style and almost the exact the same formation, but still the hope was Weiler had done some tinkering in the two month break that would unlock a bit more offense, especially from the run of play. And there were two new signings to see, Andre Dozzell and Nathan Ordaz.

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #10 (Houston Dynamo) vs. #22 (DC United).

Formation

As usual, DC United played in a 4-4-2 with two flat lines of four. There were three differences from what I predicted in the preview.

First, Kye Rowles apparently was a late scratch due to some sort of knock, and Sean Nealis started in his place. Going into the season that wouldn’t be surprising, since Nealis is a veteran who was expected to push for starting time. But before his injury, it seemed like Weiler liked Nikola Markovic more.

Then, in central midfield, I thought the newly aquired Dozzell would pair with Matti Peltola. Not so: he was joined by Brandon Servania. I don’t think anyone expected that.

Then, in the least surprising difference, Jackson Hopkins started at right wing as he did for the early part of the season before Jared Stroud seemed to start getting favored.

Even the bench had some surprises. As has been a tradition this season, there were two goalkeepers on the bench, which with the usual third-string keeper Jordan Farr hurt, meant Grant Leveille. Oscar Avilez was there as well. No sign of Caden Clark or Gavin Turner. Are they hurt? Or exiled? Who knows!

The substitution pattern was strange. Jackson Hopkins picked up a knock in the 53’ minute and came out. Matti Peltola came in, but he’s a central midfielder and there were already two on the field, so Andre Dozzell took Hopkins’ position on the right. The only way I can think to explain this is that Peltola was going to come in anyway for Servania, so they just sent him in anyway.

Almost fifteen minutes later, Weiler made a rare (for him) triple substitution that straightened out the formation. Nathan Ordaz came in for Louis Munteanu and played forward, Hosei Kijima replaced Peglow at left midfield, and then Jared Stroud replaced Servania, taking up Hopkins’ right midfield spot and finally moving Dozzell back into central midfield.

And late in the game, with Dozzell cramping in the unaccustomed heat, Nikola Markovic came in to play his spot in central midfield.

Game Flow and Goal Breakdowns

Kickoff through 53’

As expected, even though Houston came into the game 29th in the league in possession, playing at home against the 30th place possession team meant they had a lot more of the ball: 60% possession in the first half. Unused to this, they didn’t have a lot of attacking ideas. DC pressed a few times but mostly sat back and wouldn’t confront until Houston came into their half. I assume the idea was to conserve their energy in the summer heat.

I say Houston didn’t have attacking ideas, but I guess you could say they had one: give the ball to Mateusz Bogusz. DC seemed incapable of stopping the Polish midfielder, with Kurokawa and Nealis both at different points getting badly beaten. But he couldn’t beat Sean Johnson. I’m sure Johnson deserves some credit, but it looked more like Bogusz was just kicking it right at him.

The two big questions I had about Andre Dozzell were: could he defend with the intensity DC United requires and could his skills on the ball help the team better connect to the forwards. And I wondered if having him as an asset in midfield would mean Weiler would try to orient the team around exploiting him in the buildup.

Well, we had to take a rain check on the first question because while Dozzell didn’t defend with intensity, neither did the rest of the team. Just like on Dozzell’s Portsmouth, everyone was doing as little as possible. Except Silvan Hefti. He must not have gotten the memo, because he was playing with the usual aggression.

That aggression led to several dangerous free kicks for Houston, one of which would eventually result in their goal.

40’ Hector Herrera 0-1

As for the other questions about Dozzell, he was everything I expected and more with the ball. He was press resistant, unleashed one of the through balls I had admired from his Portsmouth games, and frequently connected forward passes. All that I had expected, but what I didn’t expect was the two times he broke out the sauce to get past defenders. I watched him in three games at Portsmouth and never saw anything like that, so either the level is a bit lower and he’s asserting himself or (I think this a bit more likely) at Portsmouth he was under strict no-fun rules and Weiler has loosened the leash.

All well and good, and you can see the difference between him and Servania:

Dozzell also saw more of the ball than Servania, though not quite as much as those charts imply since he was on the field for longer. But the team clearly wasn’t trying to build through him, they were playing the usual way. Just like at Portsmouth, he hit a great looking through ball, but just like at Portsmouth, he only hit a single one in the game.

And so, as usual, DC’s forwards were isolated. When he did get the ball, Dozzell was able to find the wide players, especially Kurokawa and Peglow, but unfortunately they both played unusually badly and so for all of the aesthetic improvement Dozzell provided, DC still generated almost no threat from the run of play.

53' through 67’

Then Jackson Hopkins had to come out of the game, and Weiler subbed on Matti Peltola and moved Dozzell to right midfielder for fifteen minutes. I was pretty mad about this for all of those fifteen minutes. If you must bring on Peltola there instead of a like-for-like player, just stash Servania out there. All I can figure is that given the poor wide play, Weiler was like, let’s just move one of our best players there.

Dozzell seemed fine playing there, but since he wasn’t in central midfield, DC was now significantly worse at progressing the ball. Peltola did better at this than Servania but nothing like Dozzell.

67’ through 78’

Weiler made a very rare (for him) triple substitution. The subs added energy, though Kijima and Stroud were both wasteful as you’d expect. But even though Dozzell had moved back into the center of the field, DC still wasn’t progressing the ball as Dozzell melted in the heat and struggled a bit after his 73’ yellow card challenge. It took one of this season’s standard tactics, the hit-it-long-and-pray, for DC to break through.

78’ Tai Baribo 1-1

78’ through Full Time

After DC equalized, Houston belatedly turned on the gas. Houston had seven shots in the remaining time, so they were generating looks. They weren’t good looks, not with DC packed back in a bunker, but Houston only managed to put one of them on target. I was encouraged to see DC was willing to actually mount an attack in stoppage time, but for almost all that time they clearly were happy with a point and just trying to hang on.

Expected Goals

The xG for the game overall was closer than it felt, Houston having the advantage 1.20 to 0.86. Houston’s advantage in shots, 20-7, tells a better story about how the game felt.

Although Houston scored in the first half, it was comparatively the quieter one with Houston winning the xG battle decisively 0.32 - 0.07 and shots 7-2. The second half was almost even in xG, 0.88 - 0.80 for a slight Houston edge, but the shots were 13-5 Houston.

This is a case where DC’s goal made a flattering impact on the whole-game stats. Tai Baribo’s point-blank header was worth 0.66 xG, three quarters of DC’s xG for the entire game. The next highest xG shot for DC was a blocked shot by Louis Munteanu in the 57th minute at 0.05. Peglow looked wide open on that play and surely was the better option.

Hector Herrera’s goal was just 0.08 xG, and the post-shot expected goal measure only bumps it to 0.15 xGOT, so Opta also thinks Sean Johnson should have done better. Their highest xG shot was Bogusz at the beginning of the second half where Houston beat the press and then Bogusz just glided in on goal with Nealis…getting his footing wrong, I guess? You can see Dozzell making a “what the heck are you doing” motion on the replay as it happens. Anyway, that was 0.32 xG, a very good chance, but Bogusz made it easy for Johnson.

Player Ratings

Starters

Sean Johnson - 5 - None of his four saves looked very difficult, but he made them. Seems like he could have done better on the goal but we never got a good camera angle.

Keisuke Kurokawa - 3 - Maybe his worst game for DC? Set the tone early with a cross that was miles off target. 0/4 in ground duels, which is not normal for him.

Sean Nealis - 4 - Prior to his injury, my beef with him was that he would commit these needless crunching fouls. Then he got hurt on one of them. In this game at least he cut it out and actually commited zero fouls. Great. And mostly he was solid, but he was no help progressing the ball and then had that play where he basically gift-wrapped a chance to Bogusz.

Lucas Bartlett - 5 - Helped create the goal both with his accurate long ball to Kijima to earn the throw and then with his attacking center of gravity on the set piece. Pretty good game otherwise, except for the time he gave the ball straight to Houston’s best attacking player.

Silvan Hefti - 4 - Too many needless fouls, and just 2/8 ground duels won.

Andre Dozzell - 6 - Already discussed at length above. The 91% passing is impressive but especially given how many of them advanced the ball, 39 touches is more than I expected, but still fewer than would be ideal. Hopefully he can learn to link up more with the forwards instead of just the wide players.

Brandon Servania - 5 - Only 22 touches in 67 minutes but no big mistakes that I noticed. Not bad, but didn’t look better than Peltola.

Peglow - 4 - Work rate was there, but otherwise not much to like, just turnovers and crosses straight to the goalkeeper. In his defense, he was open twice in the box for relatively easy passes but Hopkins and Munteanu didn’t find him.

Jackson Hopkins - 5 - Strange game where Hopkins played maybe his best game in a DC United jersey…defensively. In the attack, though, it was back to what he’s been doing all season: not much. Still waiting for him to put everything together.

Louis Munteanu - 4 - I like the fact he’s willing to shoot, but often it would be better to pass. He had 24 touches but just 2 passes, that’s quite a ratio. His main problem continues to be he’s so slow it’s hard for his teammates to find him. If the plan is really to keep Ordaz at forward instead of playing him at right midfield, then Munteanu’s starting role seems like it’s in jeopardy.

Tai Baribo - 7 - Even fewer touches than Munteanu despite more minutes played, so maybe it’s not just speed that’s the problem. But even when his teammates are struggling to get him the ball, his work rate stays high and while he only got one shot in this game, he earned it with good movement and really made it count.

Substitutes

Matti Peltola - 6 - Didn’t miss a pass, and most of them weren’t safe passes either, he was advancing the ball, most notably with a ball that found Munteanu in the box. Had some rusty moments right after coming in, but otherwise he looked like he ought to be starting.

Hosei Kijima - 4 - Good hustle, as usual, and I guess he sort of contributed to the goal with his, uh, poor control on the long ball. But no argument for starting. Very few opportunities, as with all the subs, just 9 touches.

Jared Stroud - 4 - Just 10 touches. Nothing positive.

Nathan Ordaz - 7 - Only 7 touches, but unlike Kijima and Stroud he actually managed a nice interchange, won a foul holding the ball up after a clearance, and of course ended up getting the assist. I wish I believed the assist was intentional, but who cares, it was great movement to ghost in to the far post. Excited to see more of him.

Nikola Markovic - 5 - The full Markovic experience despite only playing about ten minutes. He completed all his passes, won an aerial duel, was involved in a clumsy challenge (though it was Stroud who was whistled for the foul and carded), and lost track of his man, giving the other team a golden opportunity to win the game that fortunately they squandered (Ondrej Lingr volleyed over the goal).

Standings

DC United stays in 9th place in the Eastern conference, two points ahead of Orlando City and three points behind Red Bull New York after their loss to last-place Philadelphia. They’re 20th in the Supporter’s Shield standings, tied with the Colorado Rapids but with a much worse goal difference.

Tai Baribo is up to 9 goals, keeping him in the Golden Boot conversation, albeit distantly. There are 12 other players with 9 or more goals. Although one is Hugo Cuypers, who at 13 goals was co-leading the race with Petar Musa, but Chicago is shipping Cuypers to Liga MX in favor of an admittedly famous 37-year-old. Who knows, the transfer window is still open, maybe the other, uh, 11 players will also be sold to Mexico.

Coming Up

On Saturday, DC United returns to Audi Field to take on a Toronto FC side that hasn’t won since April 4th. They’ve had four losses and six draws since then. They’re also playing a stupid schedule because of World Cup renovations to BMO field, so this match will be their fourth in a row on the road (and third since the beginning of the World Cup break) with one more to go the following Friday.

After that, DC hosts the best team in the league, Nashville SC, the following Saturday, then travels to CF Montréal.

Extra Time

No extra time this week on account of illness. Next time, though, I’ll be taking a closer look at just how set piece-oriented DC’s offense has become.

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Guessing the Lineup

Ted Meyer of RFK Refugees did everyone a service by directly asking René Weiler after the Houston game why Matti Peltola didn’t start and about Kye Rowles. Weiler was uncharacteristically diplomatic and refused to answer about Peltola, which on one hand confirms it is something negative, but it could be anything from Weiler doesn’t rate him to Peltola was late to practice and so didn’t start that single match.

I thought Peltola was better than Brandon Servania when he came in, and his legs will be fresher, so I’m going to stick to my guns and guess Peltola will start. I’ll also guess Kye Rowles won’t be available, since injuries are usually a bit worse than the team admits and they were at “we’ll have to see” instead of “we’re hoping he’ll start”, so another start for Nealis.

Might there be other rotation given the short turnaround? Jackson Hopkins had to come out early, and Peglow didn’t cover himself in glory against Houston. We’ll see, but I’ll believe Weiler is ready to rotate only when I see it.

Backup goalkeepers: Alex Bono, Grant Leveille

Backup defenders: Nikola Markovic, Brandon Servania

Backup attackers: Jared Stroud, Hosei Kijima, Gavin Turner, Jacob Murrell, Oscar Avilez

Not selected: Caden Clark, Jordan Farr, Grant Leveille

Injured: Conner Antley, Gabe Segal

On loan: Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Hakim Karamoko

I left the bench the same as last game, but earlier in the season, Weiler was willing to rotate the barely-used bench players so that the same person wasn’t inactive for every game, so it could be Caden Clark will be back on the bench instead of Avilez, Turner, or Murrell.

The Opposition: Toronto FC

Toronto are 3 points behind DC United in 12th place in the Eastern Conference, which happens to be the position they finished last season as well, though that time they were 6 points ahead of last-place DC.

For years, Toronto has been known for the severely underperforming Italian DPs. Did you know Lorenzo Insigne’s last MLS goal was scored against DC United last year? Ouch, but then, they gave up the only MLS goal Boris Enow ever scored, so take that. Anyway, the premise of this year’s Toronto roster is that having finally liberated themselves from their Italians, they brought in Djordje Mihailovic from Colorado in the middle of last year to be their #10 and then more recently they paid an absolutely ridiculous amount of money for American striker Josh Sargent. The theory is they’d finally turn themselves into a decent team by putting those guys in with their aging Canadian core of players like Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, and Raheem Edwards…oh, and Walker Zimmerman, who isn’t Canadian, but he’s there too.

Other than how much they paid for Sargent, I’m not sure this was even a bad idea. Mihailovic is a proven MLS creator, albeit a tier beneath the league’s true stars at the position, and managed a goal and two assists in less than five games of minutes last season. And Sargent has a goal contribution ever other game this year.

The problem is these guys haven’t been on the field much. Sargent has only played about half the possible minutes due to some combination of fitness upon arrival and then injury, and he didn’t start their most recent game even though he wasn’t on the injury report. Mihailovic has been injured all season. He’s finally off the injury report, but evidently isn’t match fit yet because he didn’t even make the bench for their last game. I have to admit I have no idea whether either will start against DC, but I don’t feel too bad because Toronto fans don’t seem to understand it either.

That leaves Dániel Sallói, the longtime Sporting KC player whose last really good season was 2021, leading the team in both goals and assists with four and three respectively. Toronto has scored 22 goals, the same number as DC United, and given up 29, three more than DC.

Since the World Cup break, they’ve had two 0-0 draws against CF Montréal and the New England Revolution. That’s not great, but it’s better than the three straight losses they had going into the break. They only have three wins on the season and their last one was April 4th. That’s ten straight games without a win, six draws and four losses. They have only one win on the road and that was back in early March.

Their schedule is really weird this year because of renovations at BMO Field for the World Cup. They started out with three away games, then had nine straight home games, and now they are on their fifth road game of six, though the World Cup break was in the middle of that. Longtime DC United fans will remember what a massive advantage it was in 2018 to have a long string of home games, but Toronto went D-W-W-D-D-D-L-D-L.

Maybe it’s worth mentioning last year Sean Johnson had an amazing year for them. Johnson has been okay this season for DC, but a bit disappointing, and only has 0.3 goals prevented. Toronto’s new starter, Luka Gavran, is at -2.3, near the bottom of the league, so that doesn’t seem to be going well.

What I’m Looking For

I’m looking for DC United to find a way to win this game, ideally with some goals from the run of play, but I’m not going to be picky. If it has to be from set pieces, so be it. I’ll continue to look closely at new arrivals Andre Dozzell and Nathan Ordaz, both of whom played well against Houston. And if Weiler has any faith at all in his bench, this short rest game will be the time to show it.

Extra Time

For paid subscribers, let’s use this occasion to briefly consider how Toronto and DC United have taken dramatically different paths only to spend most of this decade in about the same place and what lessons we can learn from Toronto’s misfortunes.

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One fact I forgot to mention in my news roundup post is that DC played two scrimmages leading up to this point, the most recent against the Philadelphia Union. I didn’t have time to look hard, but I didn’t find any information about who won either game. A clip did surface of Philly scoring a goal against DC but the quality is so poor I can’t even be sure who is on the field in DC’s defense. I think that’s Keisuke Kurokawa getting caught upfield and Kye Rowles moving to try to cover Cavan Sullivan. Presumably Lucas Bartlett is the other centerback? It’s definitely Sean Johnson in goal, at least. Don’t see Matti Peltola, so maybe it’s Brandon Servania and new signing Andre Dozzell in the double pivot? I don’t know! You have the link, so if you want, you can see if you can do better.

Guessing the Lineup

It doesn’t look like we’ll see much of the newest signing, Nathan Ordaz, since he only just arrived and according to Weiler isn’t fully in shape. Oh well. Maybe he could still play a few minutes? On the other hand, it sounds like Andre Dozzell is fully integrated. Weiler was cagey but my sense from Lucas Bartlett’s answer is that Dozzell will start.

The injury report says reserve fullback Conner Antley and third-string goalkeeper Jordan Farr are out, which we knew from the press conference, but it also notes that reserve forward Gabe Segal is still out. The big questions, then, are whether Dozzell is starting and who is playing in right midfield. It seemed like Jared Stroud had won the job when the break happened, but Jackson Hopkins is also a strong possibility. Whoever plays there, this is their chance to convince Weiler to keep them in the lineup as Ordaz gets fit.

Backup goalkeeper: Alex Bono

Backup defenders: Nikola Markovic, Sean Nealis

Backup attackers: Jackson Hopkins, Jacob Murrell, Gavin Turner, Caden Clark, Hosei Kijima, Nathan Ordaz

Not selected: Oscar Avilez, Grant Leveille

Injured: Conner Antley, Jordan Farr, Gabe Segal

On loan: Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Hakim Karamoko

The Opposition: Houston Dynamo

From DC United’s pregame press conferences, it seems that the most intimidating part of the opposition here is more Houston than the Dynamo. The high tomorrow in Houston is 101 degrees. Don’t worry, it looks like it will cool down to “only” the low 90s by the time the game starts. At least there won’t be any smoke.

But as for the actual Houston Dynamo, last season they finished 12th in the West and were bad on both sides of the ball. This year, they’re sitting at 7th in the Western Conference with 22 points compared to DC’s 17. And remember, unlike last season, the Western Conference has been significantly tougher than the East so far this year. Just their point total would have them sitting at 5th, and presumably they’ve played a stronger schedule.

They’ve scored 19 goals, which is not terrible but definitely below average. In fact, it’s two fewer than DC United. Back in the middle of April, I never imagined I’d be saying anyone had scored fewer goals, but DC’s offense really came to life after that point. Houston has given up 23 goals, two fewer than DC, so really they’re pretty similar to DC if DC had just had one fewer 4-4 match.

As you would expect for a Ben Olsen team, Houston are happy to yield possession and play against the ball. In fact, they’re 29th in the league in possession. But DC United is 30th and will be the road team, so Houston may be stuck holding the ball in this game whether they like it or not.

I watched the first half of their game against LAFC because I wanted to see Ordaz, and Houston didn’t look impressive…until LAFC pushed too many numbers forward and then Houston mounted some dangerous counterattacks. Houston led 2-1 at the half and went on to win that match 4-1. That was a quality road win, but they only have one other away win. Unfortunately, they’ve been much stronger at home.

Their main attacking threat is 31-year-old Brazilian left winger Guiherme, who has 8 goals and 4 assists. Their expensive DP forward Ezequiel Ponce has never been impressive. He did manage 10 goals in a ton of minutes last season, but he has zero league goals in almost ten games this season.

Their patience with Ponce seems to be over, because they just acquired Duncan McGuire from Orlando City. McGuire had a great season with Orlando in 2023 and a very good season in 2024, but injuries have really limited his minutes in the year and a half since. He definitely seems like an upgrade at forward and probably has been with the team long enough to start.

Their other DP is Mateusz Bogusz, who plays on the right wing and might sound familiar because he had a really good season for LAFC back in 2024. He looked pretty impressive in my brief look at Houston’s game against LAFC, but he’s only got two goals and an assist so far this year.

Fans who closely follow the US National Team will recognize Jack McGlynn in midfield, but for those unfamiliar, he’s 22 years old and is whatever the opposite of an all-arounder is. Houston brought. him in from Philaldephia last year hoping, I think, he could become a #10. He’s done okay, notching 6 goals and 6 assists last season. This year his numbers are up into what I’d call the good range. But the thing about McGlynn is he’s very slow and just doesn’t seem athletically up to MLS level, but he’s got a world class left foot and so can be devastating on free kicks and if he can tee up a long shot in space. He’s so good at that there would some people who thought he should go to the World Cup with the US team just to be a late game set piece taker.

Mexican superstar Hector Herrera is also back with Houston after two seasons in Toluca. He’s 36, so I don’t know how well he can play the Olsen style in 90-plus degree heat, but he can at least offer some real quality in limited minutes off the bench.

Houston’s goalkeeper, Jonathan Bond, was 29th in the league in goals prevented last season. I usually complain this stat is very streaky, but he’s 30th in the league this season, so in this case it really seems like he’s probably not very good at stopping shots.

What I’m Looking For

Assuming Andre Dozzell starts, I’m definitely going to be watching him closely to see how he does. I think a lot of people came away from my huge article about him with a very negative impression, but I am more optimistic. I guess that’s just my personality. It’s going to be fascinating to see how he does.

More broadly, I’m going to be looking to see what—if anything—is different with the team after Weiler had two months to try to get more out of what so far is going to be mostly the same roster. Are they still going to be producing goalfests or are things going to be more tightened down like they were at the beginning of the season?

And what about the bench? Speaking about the weather and the fact they play again on Saturday in his press conference, Weiler said at one point something to effect of, hey, we’ve got a big team so we’ll just deal with it. I thought that was interesting because Weiler did everything he could not to substitute his starters in the first part of the season. Sure, he exiled two players, both now departed, but Hosei Kijima, Caden Clark, Jacob Murrell, and Gavin Turner all got very little time. They’re still here, so is he actually going to use any of them? The sub patterns for this game in the heat, with another match looming in three days, will show us whether any of the bench players have earned more of Weiler’s trust.

Extra Time

For paid subscribers, I’m going to revisit my pre-World Cup skepticism about people’s hopes the World Cup being a boost to the fortunes of the American soccer ecosystem. Now that the World Cup is done, have I changed my mind?

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Two months later, the team has made two key acquisitions in midfield and attack and also moved on the exiled players. There’s one premium roster slot open: either a third DP or a fourth U22 player can be signed. With reports indicating that DC ownership invested more than two million dollars in Nathan Ordaz, I wonder how much is left for either of those, but we’ll see. The transfer window doesn’t close until September.

But let’s run through things in rough order of importance.

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Andre Dozzell signed as a free agent from Portsmouth

Even before the season started, it was obvious the team needed at least one more player in central midfield just from a depth perspective. They got away with it as Matti Peltola started all 15 games and Brandon Servania started 14. But beyond just numbers, another key need was more creativity in possession, and Servania’s spot was one that I (along with most people watching the team closely) saw as a spot to upgrade.

I wrote a lot recently about Andre Dozzell and won’t say all that again, but suffice to say he has the potential to improve the team’s ability to move the ball to its expensive forwards. And compared to the third Designated Player a lot of us expected, he’s relatively affordable. He was a free agent, so no transfer fee required, and while salary numbers won’t be available for a while, we haven’t seen mention yet of him being a TAM player. According to Capology he was making the equivalent of $655K for Portsmouth. Presumably he’s getting a raise, but we’ll see if it’s over the $803K non-TAM salary limit.

Nathan Ordaz bought from LAFC

The other big acquisition is DC United paid almost $2.4 million to LAFC for 22 year old attacker Nathan Ordaz (okay, technically they “traded” the money, but come on). They’re signing him to a U22 contract, so none of that fee hits the salary cap and he’ll take up just $200K of cap space despite a surely higher salary.

There are two ways to use U22 slots. You can use them to pay big transfer fees on longshot players from abroad or you can use them to reward a young player already in the MLS ecosystem. Past DC United longshot players were guys like Gabriel Pirani and Kim Joon Hong, while “rewarded” players include Ted Ku-Dipietro and Jackson Hopkins. Ordaz is an LAFC homegrown, but LAFC’s U22 slots were full.

I haven’t watched a ton of LAFC games, but Ordaz is said to be a guy with decent speed, a good work rate, and an ability to both find goals arriving in the box and connect with his fellow attackers. The obvious conclusion is that he’s been brought in to potentially start at right midfield in a spot where Jackson Hopkins and Jared Stroud haven’t impressed.

Just in terms of scoresheet, Ordaz compares favorably to Hopkins. In 2025, Hopkins had three goals in nine games’ worth of minutes, while Ordaz had five goals and three assists in a little over fourteen games of minutes. That’s more than a goal contribution every other game and was a clear breakout season for Ordaz. He was of course behind LAFC star attackers Denis Bouanga and Son Heung-min, but LAFC often plays with three clear attackers. The problem for Ordaz is this season has been David Martinez, a U22 initiative player almost two years younger than Ordaz, seems to have taken a step forward after showing flashes of potential last season.

I watched the first half of their game earlier this year against Houston to see how that went. Bouanga was out, so Ordaz was played at forward along with Son. Martinez was playing on the right wing. Ordaz’s movement as a forward seemed good. He’s not huge but he would try to get physical with centerbacks in hold-up play. He scored a goal where he made a good run and got a bit lucky when his shot was partially blocked but went in anyway. So that’s all good!

But he had very few touches of the ball. Since LAFC is a strong team, I assumed they dominated possession, but watching them I remembered they prefer to play against the ball and counterattack. Houston also prefers to play against the ball and was on the road, so LAFC did end up possessing the ball a fair amount, but they weren’t accustomed to this and struggled to find their forwards. And when the ball did move to the forward line, Son Heung-Min was understandably the focus.

With DC United having invested over ten million dollars in Tai Baribo and Louis Munteanu, it doesn’t seem likely Ordaz is seen as taking one of their starting spots. And neither Baribo or Munteanu make sense as a winger, so the three-man attacking line that LAFC often uses doesn’t make much sense either. That’s why I’ve been assuming Ordaz is destined for DC’s right midfield spot. Can he be the creative presence DC needs? Nothing in his resume indicates he can be the fulcrum of an attack like Lucho Acosta or Christian Gomez, but the assists he’s notched with both LAFC and the El Salvador national team suggest he can bring some creativity.

Besides right midfield, he’s a more accomplished MLS forward than Jackson Hopkins or Jacob Murrell and so I’d expect him to be used there when one of Baribo or Munteanu aren’t available.

He has recently been wearing the #10 for El Salvador, by the way, and with DC United’s #10 recently vacated, I think there’s a decent chance he starts wearing it for DC. If so, I hope we don’t get a repeat of the Pirani experience where he was playing in wide midfield for Lesesne but fans expected him to be Lucho Acosta.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there is a big Salvadoran community in the DC area, so bringing in an exciting young Salvadoran national team starter is hopefully a move that helps reconnect with a community that was a big presence early in DC United’s history when Raúl Díaz Arce was a star forward for DC’s first two MLS Cup winning teams.

More players coming?

There have been rumors about DC being interested in other players, most notably 24-year-old Japanese right back Kimito Nono, but nothing from American media. Not saying these rumors are wrong, but I’m not going to pay attention until we get something concrete from one of the handful of trustworthy MLS reporters. Maybe DC really is going to try to get more players from J League, leveraging René Weiler’s contacts there. But maybe DC’s acquisition of Keisuke Kurokawa just means that Japanese agents and rumor sites will throw around DC’s name for no reason for a couple of transfer windows. There was a lot of noise about other players in Romania after the Louis Munteanu purchase too, but no evidence that DC was really interested.

In his press conference before the Houston game, René Weiler did say they are hoping to add one or two more players, so it does seem more reinforcements could be on the way.

Aaron Herera waived

Longtime readers might recall that I was sure Aaron Herrera was going to be shipped out after last season. Back in 2024, Herrera was one of the best players on the team, but his form slipped badly in 2025 and he looked even worse playing for René Weiler. Getting a stupid red card in the penultimate game of the season seemed like a resignation letter. I figured he’d be traded.

Maybe other teams just didn’t want him? He hadn’t been playing up to his contract, certainly. At any rate, he was back with DC this year but continued to play poorly and finally was dropped by Weiler. Then, just before he was waived, news came that Herrera was alleged to have been involved in hazing a teenage player back at Real Salt Lake.

That’s not a good look, but let’s face it, MLS teams are willing to look past a lot, so I expected him to land somewhere. The waiver rules mean another team could have gotten him for a fraction of the cap hit of his contract, but there were no takers and as far as I know he’s still without a team.

It’s a grim end for a player whose time at DC United started brightly and the effects are going to linger for a little bit. Unless DC uses one of their two buyouts on him, Herrera will still be taking cap space for DC United until the end of this season when his contract was up.

Gabriel Pirani sold to San Diego FC

Gabriel Pirani was the other starting-caliber player who was exiled by René Weiler, who memorably answered a question about Pirani’s absence in a press conference by asking if the reporter had watched him play.

Unlike Herrera, Pirani had played well for Weiler last season. Okay, he wasn’t amazing, but for instance he scored both of DC’s goals in a 2-1 upset win over NYCFC that ended up being the team’s only win last season after Weiler took over. But this season he was playing badly and, apparently, not putting in the sort of effort that Weiler wanted.

But it’s been several years now that Pirani has been disappointing expectations. In the past I’ve argued that some of those expectations were too high. The fact he as a Brazilian took the #10 shirt for a team with a history of great South American #10s set a bar he wasn’t ready to reach. And, incidentally, the World Cup results seem to indicate he’s not the only Brazilian player struggling to live up the brand. Pirani showed flashes of being able to beat players on the dribble or find an incisive pass, but those flashes came very rarely. I kept waiting for the game to slow down for him, for. his turnovers to drop and his assists to rise, but it just never happened.

That’s how it is some times with player development.

It never helped matters that he was clearly miscast as a player for Troy Lesesne and then René Weiler. He was missing something psychologically or physiologically (maybe both) and so never was able to muster the defensive work rate both coaches demanded. In the build up he liked playing short, tiki-taka passes on a team without many players capable of precise passing. I think San Diego’s style of play, which I believe emphasizes possession and elegant passing patterns instead of DC’s direct play, could be a much better fit for him.

With DC, at least, he only had one clear skill at the MLS level: scoring goals from the edge of the box. DC wasn’t good at getting him into this position, and his poor work rate and off-ball movement sure didn’t help either, but when he did get the ball there, he could be deadly.

A lot of DC fans who were deeply frustrated by Pirani were surprised someone would pay a minimum of $350,000 for him, but as a longtime Pirani defender I wasn’t. First of all, $350K really isn’t much in today’s MLS. But also, scoring goals is the hardest skill to find in soccer. A guy with even an inconsistent track record of doing that is going to find a team who convinces themselves they can fix him.

Hopefully they can, since they’re safely in the Western Conference and his fee could escalate to a million if he does well. And along with the change in scenery and a better match for his playstyle, he might do better because Pirani has a pattern of playing better in the latter half of seasons.

I’ve heard some fans griping he only did this once the season is lost, but I’ll make one last meager effort to defend Pirani by noting this wasn’t true in 2024. His stoppage time brace against Nashville miraculously saved DC’s playoff hopes with one game to spare in the season!

Now, they lost the last game of the season to miss the playoffs and Pirani played, uh, pretty badly in that game, but I’m just saying some of those late season goals were impactful!

Anyway, for my part, I wish him well, but also it was clearly time to move on. If there’s anything to complain about here with the DC front office, it’s that he wasn’t sold before the season when he surely would have been worth more.

Injury Update

As in preseason, the team provides no ongoing information about player injuries, which means we have absolutely no idea what is going on. The biggest fear, since DC United isn’t a deep team, is that a starter has gotten a bad injury during practice and we just haven’t heard about it yet. In René Weiler’s pregame press conference for the Houston game, he said almost as an aside that everyone was healthy except Jordan Farr and Conner Antley.

That’s great to hear, but I’m still wondering if that “everyone” included two players who carried long-term injuries into the World Cup break. Sean Nealis didn’t impress me at centerback and failed to unseat Lucas Bartlett and Kye Rowles on Weiler’s depth chart, but at minimum he’s a useful backup. He had shoulder surgery at the beginning of April to repair a broken clavicle from the FC Dallas match. At the time, the team said he’d be out “six to eight weeks”, which would have taken him through the end of May, so hopefully he’s fully back now.

The other player is forward Gabe Segal, who had ankle surgery in late March after sustaining an injury during preseason. The team said he’d be out “three to five months”, a range that puts him back anywhere from the end of June to the end of August. I’ve been looking for him in the brief shots of practice that the team puts on social media but haven’t spotted him.

Segal has never played in an actual game for DC, so him getting healthy would almost be like transferring in a new player. He’s a journeyman who’s never earned more than a handful of minutes, so expectations should be low, but he seemed like he’d be a better match for Tai Baribo’s style of play than Jacob Murrell.

DC United sells Kim Joon Hong to Suwon Samsung Bluewings

DC sold young Korean goalkeeper Kim Joon Hong to Suwon, the team in Korea’s second division where he’d been loaned to during the offseason. The fee hasn’t been disclosed, but presumably DC is taking a big loss on the $550K fee the previous front office paid to acquire him before last season.

Like a lot of DC fans I liked the idea of the team having a young up-and-coming goalkeeper after that went so well with Bill Hamid more than a decade ago. And Kim looked like a good goalkeeper with his height and wingspan. And he really was better with the ball at his feet than DC’s goalkeepers before or since. But he really, really struggled with stopping shots. When a goalkeeper can’t, you know, keep the ball out of the goal, that’s a big problem.

I suppose it was a tough adjustment for a young guy who spoke very little English to come here, but this was a swing and a miss. His departure frees up both a U22 slot and an international slot, so it’s good for both parties to move on.

Jordan Farr loaned to Loudoun United and then recalled

Jordan Farr was clearly the third choice keeper behind Sean Johnson and Alex Bono, so when DC United signed 17-year-old goalkeeper Grant Leveille to a homegrown contract, that made Farr surplus to requirements. Loaning him to Loudoun seemed like a great move to get him playing time. Other than Open Cup penalty heroics, Farr hasn’t made an impact with DC United, but he was the USL Championship Goalkeeper of the Year in 2022. Loudoun could probably really use him.

Unfortunately, he played one full match for Loudoun in the USL Cup, then came out at halftime of the next with an injury, and that was that for his Loudoun career.

The loan was said to be for the rest of the season when it was announced, but DC recalled him on June 29th without explanation. With Weiler confirming he’s still injured, I think we h ave to assume that the injury was severe enough for Loudoun to made other plans, so DC took him back.

Hakim Karamoko loaned to third division team Forward Madison

Hakim Karamoko was DC’s first round draft pick in 2025. He’s still just 20 years old and I believe has only featured for DC United in last season’s Open Cup. I thought he looked extremely unready for MLS play and DC United still does not have an MLS Next Pro team, so the only surprise is that it’s taken this long to loan him somewhere. He spent the beginning of the season on the injury report with an unspecified illness, so it’s possible he’s still working his way back from whatever that was.

The loan happened at the end of May. USL League One stats are hard to come by but I think he’s played 145 minutes in 7 games and scored one goal. He’s under contract through 2027 so he may get another chance in DC United’s next preseason.

DC United at the World Cup?

As expected, DC centerback Kye Rowles was left off Australia’s final World Cup roster. And Canada’s injury crisis didn’t get nearly to the point where Nikola Markovic would be considered. So another World Cup came and went without an active DC United player participating.

But hey, did you see the two former DC United players? Jose Fajardo and Eric Davis, who both spent a forgettable half-season with DC United in 2023, both made the Panama roster. Fajardo started one game and played significant minutes in all three. Eric Davis subbed into two games for four total minutes played. Man, I thought to myself watching Fajardo against England, if he scores in this game…but no such luck. Fajardo didn’t look any better playing against England and Croatia than he did when he was three years younger and playing against Charlotte FC and Atlanta United. Oh well. Panama lost all three games and failed to score a goal.

International Friendlies

Even though there were no DC United players in the World Cup, a few DC players did play with national teams during the break:

• Louis Munteanu scored for Romania against Georgia off the bench, then started in a 2-1 victory over Wales

• Jackson Hopkins had a very nice assist against Ukraine for the US U-21s…despite the fact he’s 22. “Make up” for missed pandemic national team time. US Soccer just built a national training center to host their teams, but for some reason the U-21 camp is in…Slovenia. The US Soccer note about this says both games will take place in “Nogometno igrišče Stadium”. If you see the highlight and wonder if that’s really a stadium, well, Google translate says “Nogometno igrišče” is Slovenian for “football pitch” so…yeah, fair enough.

• Matti Peltola was on the bnech for the Finland national team prior to the World Cup as they lost 0-4 to Germany and 1-2 to Hungary, but he didn’t appear in either game.

• Israel defeated Albania 1-0 in a friendly, but it seems like Tai Baribo wasn’t with the team

• And, what the heck, Aaron Herrera was still a DC United player when he went 90 for Guatemala in a 1-3 loss to Czechia at Red Bull Arena. Then another 90 in a 0-3 loss against Ecuador. He was waived by DC three days later.

Audi Field roof

Every so often there are rumblings that DC’s owners are trying to remodel Audi Field to add up to 10,000 seats and also put a roof over it. The theory seems to be this would allow the stadium to host more events, from concerts to women’s volleyball.

The timelines from proposal to completion of construction projects like this in DC run in decades, not in years, so I refuse to waste much energy thinking about this. But if you want my opinion, I’m happy for the owners to renovate the stadium if they think that makes sense, but I’m against public funding for sports projects. That goes for DC United, the Washington Commanders, and any other sports team around the country. Approvals to let plans proceed are one thing, but if the owners won’t make enough money afterward to pay for the construction, they just shouldn’t do it.

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All right, this article has gone on long enough, so we’ll save Extra Time for the Houston preview I’m somehow scrambling to get ready despite having two months to prepare it.

To better answer these questions, I watched three of his games with Portsmouth last season. As part of my experiments with including voiced-over video in articles, I’ve made videos with most of his touches from those games, overlaid some vocal commentary, so you can get a feel for how he was playing yourself instead of just taking my word for it. To be honest, putting these videos together was a lot more work than I thought it would be, so I probably won’t be able to do it for Nathan Ordaz, but let me know what you think.

Note: Paid subscribers got a preview of part of this article all the way back in May, but this version is greatly expanded and, of course, has the videos.

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Videos

The videos will probably make more sense after having read the article, but since some people aren’t going to want to read a long article, I’m just going to embed them here at the top. Two of them, anyway. I’m going to save the third for the paid subscriber section at the end.

I watched three games. Two recent games were against top Championship sides, one where they got crushed (losing 1-5 to eventual league winners Coventry) and one where they won an upset victory (2-0 over league runners up Ipswitch Town). I also went back to an earlier game against one of Portsmouth’s rivals in the relegation race, West Bromwich Albion.

These aren’t “all touch” videos. I don’t show routine situations where he’s part of defenders passing it around under no pressure. But they have most touches. In particular, every bad touch, missed pass, and even missed assignment I could find are in there, so it’s not just highlights, you’re seeing the good and the bad.

One other note, the video quality is far from perfect. We’re very fortunate that Apple’s MLS game broadcasts are so crisp. So while my commentary is optional, I did these expecting you’re listening to it so it’s going to be much easier for you to follow with the sound on.

We’ll start with the January game against WBA. Dozzell has a very nice assist in this game, along with a few other nice moments:

Now, for some contrast, here’s Portsmouth taking on Coventry. It was a very rough game for the whole team, but of the five (!) goals Portsmouth gave up, Dozzell was only culpable on one of them:

The Basics

Andre Dozzell recently turned 27. He came up through the Ipswitch academy, where his father, Jason Dozzell, made over 400 appearances and earned a place in their Hall of Fame. The younger Dozzell was a highly rated prospect and featured for the England youth national team at many levels.

But whereas his father played for Ipswitch in their Premier League glory years, Andre Dozzell would break through into their starting lineup while they were down in League One. This was in the 2020-2021 season when he was 21 years old. That season earned him a move to QPR, initially a midtable Championship team, where he was a rotation player as the team’s fortunes faded and it dropped into relegation danger. After three seasons at QPR, he briefly went on loan to Birmingham, another Championship bottom feeder, and then moved to Portsmouth.

Portsmouth was another relegation-threatened Championship side, but there Dozzell finally cemented a place in the first XI, starting 36 games in the past season. Championship teams play even more games than that (46) but I believe injury is the only reason he missed starts.

Fan comment from his teams before Portsmouth is quite critical, complaining about how he only makes safe, sideways passes (apparently fans of bad teams’ number one complaint about midfielders all around the world) and about how little impact he has on the game. At Portsmouth, however, fans were much more positive and his departure to DC United was considered a real setback. He wasn’t seen as irreplaceable, but he wasn’t someone who would be trivial to replace either.

How Good is the Championship Anyway?

The big question with transfers like this is how does the level compare? Generally speaking, the better teams in the Championship are thought to be better than the best MLS teams, while teams like Portsmouth who are below average are probably still better than below average MLS teams. A separate factor is that because Championship sides play considerably more games, they tend to be much deeper than MLS teams, but that’s orthogonal to individual player quality.

Championship/MLS player transfers have been a mixed bag. American forward Pat Agyemang went from averaging 0.44 non-penalty goal contributions per game for Charlotte in 2025 to 0.43 non-penalty goal contributions per game for midtable Derby County. On the other hand, Emmanuel Latte Lath famously had two very good seasons with another midtable Championship team, Middlesbrough, but has been ineffective for Atlanta United.

For DC United fans, the most relevant comparison is Lewis O’Brien, who played 17 games for DC as a pseudo-DP back in 2023. Technically he came from a Premier League team, Nottingham Forest, but the reason he was available was Forest had decided he wasn’t up to that level, and sure enough he’s made 200 Championship appearances in his career, including 29 starts for Wrexham last season.

O’Brien mostly played in central midfield for DC United, so a similar position to where we expect to see Dozzell, and he was very good. He only notched one goal and one assist, but I thought he was one of DC’s best players and was sad to see him go. The comparison isn’t perfect, however. O’Brien has mostly played for better Championship teams than Dozzell has, and as we’ll see, their profiles as a player are very different. O’Brien was young, fast, and had a very high work rate, but he wasn’t all that technical of a player. Maybe that’s changed as he’s matured, since he seems to have been playing more like a #10 for Wrexham this past season and so suddenly had more goal contributions than in the previous four seasons combined.

Andre Dozzell is almost his inverse. Both of them are a bit short, but that’s the end of the similarities. Dozzell has a good first touch and is a very good passer, but his athleticism and work rate are average at best.

Role at Portsmouth: Defense

Like DC United, Portsmouth was defending in a 4-4-2 shape with Dozzell as one of the two central midfielders. In attack, it seemed to vary a little bit. In the game I watched from back in January, I think the formation would shift so that Dozzell was the lone defensive midfielder, while towards the end of the season they stayed in a double pivot.

Regardless, Dozzell’s role was to sit back, often right in front of the back line. He seemed to have almost no license to go forward except in moments where the opposition was completely pinned back, but he would mark midfielders and follow the ball to one side of the field or the other as needed. If a centerback went forward for any reason, he would rotate in to cover. Since he’s short and has no aerial presence to speak of, he would stay back on attacking corner kicks.

Now, the Championship has a reputation as a grinding, physical league, so I was expecting to see something similar to what I see from DC United, except maybe a bit better executed, so maybe similar to last season’s Philadelphia Union. I can’t speak for the rest of the league or even other games, but in the games I watched, Portsmouth didn’t play with anything like the defensive intensity I was expecting. Compared to DC United, their defense is much less compact, much less aggressive, and much more focused on positioning than on winning duels. I’m not totally sure what to make of this. Maybe MLS actually is more athletic? Or maybe the absurd number and pace of games in the Championship forces teams to play more conservatively?

I say all that because if, like me, you’re a bit concerned with how Dozzell can fit into a team like DC United that demands a high work-rate and aggressive defending from its midfielders, you’re going to see some concerning things in my videos. It’s pretty clear that Dozzell isn’t the superior athlete that Lewis O’Brien was. He runs when necessary, of course, but he mostly jogs around. In the three games I made videos for, he slides once, fouls twice I think, and puts in literally zero crunching tackles.

But in his defense, his teammates don’t seem to be doing this either. It seems like this is just how Portsmouth was playing. Does that mean he can easily start covering lots of ground and running for the whole game now that he’s on DC United? Uh, it’s possible, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I do expect to see more intensity in defense, but we’ll have to see how effective he can be.

Role at Portsmouth: Offense

What about on offense? After all, we all assume Dozzell has been brought in to upgrade Brandon Servania and provide more going forward. There I think the prospects are better. Dozzell had a good touch, was very press-resistant, and hardly ever turned over the ball in the games I watched, and that includes the game where Portsmouth was getting destroyed by the best team in the league. Even better, when he passes forward, he seems very accurate with both progressive passes and through balls to attackers. His crosses were all accurate as well.

Again, though, there’s a catch. As you’ll see in the videos, he doesn’t make many forward passes. And that explains something you might be wondering: If he’s so good at through balls, how come he has only five assists? And not five assists last season, I mean five assists total in his entire career! He’s played almost two hundred games-worth of professional minutes, the majority in the Championship, but a quarter of those were in League One, and he’s scored nine goals and notched five assists. Brandon Servania has seven assists in about half the minutes at the MLS level, including two for DC United just last season.

So what gives?

First, I think there’s a big tax on things like goals and assists when you play for a bad team. Portsmouth was in real danger of relegation for most of the year and ended up finishing 18th in the league. And that’s the highest finish for one of Dozzell’s teams since QPR finished 11th back in the 2021-2022 season. Last season he had over 3 expected assists, but his teammates only managed to find one goal out of those chances.

Second, and more importantly, with Portsmouth his usage has been low. He averaged 45.84 touches a game last season and completed 29.96 passes per game (83.8%). When I was making the videos, sometimes twenty minutes would pass with no meaningful involvement in the game. When he did get the ball, good things happened: possession would almost always be retained and sometimes he would pick out a great progressive pass.

The last few seasons of Gabriel Pirani getting extremely few touches have meant I’ve thought about this statistic a lot. For a player like Pirani who was supposed to be a creator, maybe the primary creator, low usage is very bad. And of course, when Pirani did get the ball, turnovers often resulted, so maybe his teammates weren’t thrilled about passing it to him. Then again, attackers are expected to be aggressive and lose the ball a fair mount.

From what I can tell, in possession Portsmouth expected to work the ball out to their wide players, not up through the center of the field. That’s also been true of DC United in the past five years, it’s the typical way for bad teams to play. But unlike DC, I often noticed Portsmouth’s opponents staying narrow and having their forwards man-mark Dozzell and his partner in the double pivot to prevent them being easy options. Sometimes Dozzell would have both forwards marking him. When marked, he was content to tie up the opposing players and allow his team to work the ball to the sideline without his involvement.

In situations where he wasn’t tightly marked, he was always moving to make himself an option, but even then, his teammates rarely took it. That was what I found most surprising. His passing really seems good to me, so why aren’t they using it as a weapon? It clearly wasn’t the gameplan, but why not?

The best answer I have is that the talent distribution in the Championship is completely different to what I’m used to in MLS. In MLS, the salary rules mean you have a handful of really good players surrounded by guys who are at best adequate. When you’re some guy playing for New England and Carles Gil shows for the ball, there is only one correct answer: pass him the damn ball, he is an order of magnitude better than you. MLS gameplans for both offense and defense have to take into account this lumpy talent distribution.

In the Championship, my sense was that players are much more similar to each other. To put this in MLS terms, I felt like every single player on the field for both teams in these games was better than Jared Stroud, but none of them were as good as Carles Gil or Hany Mukhtar.

Andre Dozzell seemed easily capable of hitting passes that, to be frank, I’m not sure anyone on DC United right now can reliably hit. But so could his teammates. The fullbacks and other midfielders could also find those passes when they had the chance. This means that when Dozzell hits a safe sideways pass, his team’s chances of a good outcome aren’t necessarily changing, and when a teammate looks him off in the buildup and passes to someone else, it’s likewise not a big difference.

Then again, in rewatching my three videos while doing a final editing pass for this article, I couldn’t help but notice how often Dozzell would connect a pass with a teammate who immediately lost it, either by getting tackled or by failing to complete their own pass. So I don’t know. Maybe Portsmouth just screwed up by not using him more.

Andre Dozzell with DC United

My big question is can he play defense with the intensity that DC United requires. All well and good if he simply wasn’t asked to do that for Portsmouth, but he’s definitely going to be asked to do that for DC, so can he elevate his effort? If he can’t do that for 90 minutes, he needs to at least do it for 60 minutes and then Brandon Servania or Jackson Hopkins can come off the bench.

I usually ignore defensive counting stats, but I think in this instance they do a good job showing the output gap Dozzell will have to close:

It’s possible that Weiler will arrange things Dozzell won’t have as much defensive responsibility as Matti Peltola. Sometimes people say this is already true of Servania, but I’ve never been able to see it. I think the stats above show that Servania is very active defensively. Anyway, DC could theoretically play more of a diamond with Dozzell playing in front of Peltola, but I don’t think Peltola has the speed to cover the whole field.

On the offensive side, I think the way DC has been playing, Servania and even Peltola are getting forward more than Dozzell was for Portsmouth so he should have more opportunities farther up the pitch. But I’d like to see Dozzell not just be slightly better than Servania, but someone who allows DC to play more on the front foot.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s definitely not the last missing ingredient to DC becoming a ball-dominant team. But I think he could become the first choice option in the buildup. Get him the ball and see what he can do with it. I’m cautiously optimistic he can do a better job than anyone on DC United finding guys like Tai Baribo and now Nathan Ordaz in the channels, and that he can combine with players like Peglow and Silvan Hefti as well.

Now, as we know from DC’s storied history of #10s, when there’s only one guy on the team who is a dangerous passer, unless the opposing coach is an idiot (a possibility that can’t be ruled out in MLS) the other team should be preventing that player from getting the ball by marking him tightly and fouling him when he does get it. And if that’s the gameplan, to be honest, I don’t see Dozzell has having the athletic qualities to get on the ball in spite of it. But if his passing potential drags the opposing team’s center of gravity toward the middle of the field, that ought to open up opportunities for his teammates that weren’t there before the World Cup break. Louis Munteanu in particular comes to mind as a guy who can hit good passes himself but hasn’t had a lot of space to operate.

But all this depends on Dozzell being able to take on a higher usage role and maintain his accuracy when attempting, say, fifteen progressive passes a game instead of five. I think he might be able to do it, but he hasn’t done it before.

It’s going to be fascinating to see what happens. A lot of fans were hoping for a third Designated Player to be added to central midfield, someone who could dominate games. The front office has filled the spot with a more budget-friendly move that preserves the extra DP slot. If Dozzell works out, that could put the team in a strong position since they’ll be able to add even more talent elsewhere, but there’s certainly a risk that he can’t handle the added responsibilities he’ll have on both sides of the ball.

I assume we’ll get our first look Wednesday as the team returns to MLS play against Houston.

Extra Time

For paid subscribers, here’s one more video. This one is Portsmouth, desperately trying to stave off relegation, taking on Ipswitch, near the top of the table trying to lock in automatic promotion. Dozzell doesn’t get an actual assist but is involved in one of the goals, along with the usual buffet of possession retention, nice passes, and a few miscues.

Read more

The World Cup is almost over and probably won’t return to the United States until at least 2038. But here in Washington DC, you can see live soccer in a stadium with great views for a fraction of the cost of an expensive World Cup ticket! DC’s preeminent women’s soccer team, the Washington Spirit, have already resumed play and are very good, but this newsletter covers the men’s side where the local MLS team, DC United, has long been hapless but is trying to build up into being…hapful? Hapmid, at least. That would be genuine progress.

MLS has been hoping to get a bump in viewership from fans who enjoyed the World Cup. I was a little skeptical about this, but APB has been seeing new subscribers coming in, so I thought I’d welcome them with a helpful article introducing DC United to new fans or reintroducing it those who have been tuned out.

I wrote a DC United 101 article back in March to help get people ready for the season and I think it’s still helpful, but of course a lot has happened since then. As with the previous installment, big DC fans aren’t going to learn much here, but there’ll be more content coming soon for you, and in the meantime this is an article you can send to friends who are getting interested.

So when does the season start?

Actually, it started back in February. Then stopped after 15 games in late May for a two month World Cup break. It’s about to resume and they’ll play 19 more regular season games between now and early November. The first of those games is Wednesday, July 22nd, in Houston, followed by the first home match Saturday, July 25th against Toronto FC.

How has DC’s season been going so far?

As I described in my article from the beginning of the season, DC United finished at the bottom last year and had a whole lot of work to do. The new coach and GM had a busy offseason, bringing in five new starters: a new goalkeeper, two new fullbacks, and two new high-priced forwards.

In the first eight games of the season, DC was much improved defensively but struggled to score, notching an abysmal four goals in those eight games but only giving up nine.

Then, with some small tactical adjustments and helped by Louis Munteanu’s return from injury, the floodgates opened up…on both sides of the ball. In the final seven games, DC scored seventeen goals. The tradeoff was that they also gave up sixteen. To underline that, they had two dreary 0-0 draws in the first part of the season. In the second part, they scored at least one goal in every game and had two 4-4 draws.

4-4 draws are a lot more fun than 0-0, but the results were also better. DC lost only one of those seven games. Admittedly they only won two. Still, they now sit in 9th place in the Eastern Conference. That may not sound great, but they finished 15th last year, and in MLS the top nine teams make the playoffs. DC has league’s longest playoff drought and hasn’t made it since 2019, so it would be a massive step forward if they can maintain or improve on their current position.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing about the season so far is that just about all the important new players from the past offseason have done well. There were big disappointments, but they were holdovers from the previous front office, most notably Gabriel Pirani and Aaron Herrera. Both of them were shipped out during the break.

The MLS summer transfer window is open until September 2nd, but the front office has already been busy, bringing in two new likely starters in Andre Dozzell and Nathan Ordaz who can hopefully improve the team’s attack and complement the forwards.

How does DC United play?

If you were mostly watching the US National Team, you were watching a team that was playing an aggressive, pressing style, especially early in games, and then attacking confidently with fluidity and dynamism. This worked really well against teams with less talent! Alas, it completely failed against Belgium, who were just as technical and athletic if not more so.

DC United is a team that doesn’t have any illusions about dominating opponents with superior technique. They press on occasion, but mostly focus on playing a compact defense and then hope to strike via set pieces and counterattacks. I’d say Australia is probably the best reference point from the World Cup, except that DC has, relative to its opposition, attackers who are more talented overall than Australia’s but who are a lot slower.

Does DC United have any World Cup stars on its roster?

No. DC United does have some players who play for national teams, but not for teams that qualified for the World Cup. The guy closest to going was centerback Kye Rowles. Rowles played in the 2022 World Cup for Australia and was also in consideration this time, but ultimately he wasn’t selected.

That doesn’t mean you won’t see World Cup players at DC United games. They’ll just be playing for the opposition. Later this year DC United will be taking on players like Lionel Messi (Argentina / Inter Miami), Son Heung-min (South Korea / LAFC), and Miguel Almirón (Paraguay / Atlanta United). And of course, from the US Men’s National Team, players like Tim Ream (Charlotte) and Matt Freese (NYCFC). MLS had 45 players on World Cup rosters, so there will be plenty more.

How do I follow the team?

This season you can see every DC United game broadcast via Apple.tv. There’s no additional fee on top of that, just the same monthly rate that gives you access to Ted Lasso and Severance. But if you’re in the area, definitely try to get to Audi Field and see a game in person. Most games don’t sell out, so last-minute tickets are often very affordable, and while the stadium is a bit spartan, there’s not a bad seat in the house.

Besides the games, there isn’t much coverage of DC United these days in national media or in the smoldering ruins of the Washington Post, but there’s still a lot of options. See my post from the beginning of the season for a thorough rundown.

Here at APB, I’m hoping to have a few more articles before the season resumes, most notably a scouting report on Andre Dozzell and some commentary on the many roster moves. Then it’ll be back to the in-season cadence with previews of each game and detailed game reviews when DC United wins or ties.

The vast majority of every post here is free for everyone to read. Subscribe for free to get those straight to your inbox. Paid subscribers get a little extra content in most posts (not this one, admittedly) and the warm, fuzzy feeling that comes from supporting the newsletter. Regardless, I hope you’ll join us as DC United resumes its quest for the playoffs.

The first games of the World Cup are under way and no one is thinking about MLS. It’s not that nothing at all is happening. There have been some unsurprising bits of player movement news and a few players have appeared in meaningless friendlies. So I was going to post a news roundup article to cover that stuff and wrap up the latest round of the Minutes Played contest, but then I got the idea to write this very silly article, so the news will have to wait. The in-depth Andre Dozzell scouting report is also still on the way.

But today, APB has World Cup fever and so is serving up the content that literally no one asked for: a preview that explains the US Men’s National Team starters by comparing them to DC United’s starters.

I know: if you’re enough of a DC United fan to be an APB subscriber, you probably follow the USMNT and already know the players well. If you don’t, it’s probably because you don’t want to. But if you’re one of the three people on the planet who knows a lot about Brandon Servania but wishes you knew more about Christian Pulisic…well, have I got the article for you!

Hopefully it also will be fun for readers familiar with both teams, and maybe after the World Cup, some DC area soccer fans will decide to learn more about their local team and can use this article to learn indirectly about DC United and its players.

Who is better?

I’m going to say this right at the outset so I don’t have to keep repeating it throughout: if you weren’t previously aware, the US men’s national team is better than DC United at every position from goalkeeper to forward, from the coach to the media team.

This hasn’t always been the case. In the early years of MLS, Eddie Pope was starting in World Cup games for the US while he was an active DC United player, and Bruce Arena was so obviously a better coach while managing DC United that US Soccer hired him away in 1998. As recently as 2018, I think Lucho Acosta would have walked into the starting lineup of the USMNT had he been an American citizen. Wayne Rooney had retired from playing for England the year before coming to DC but I don’t think the US would have turned him down either had that been possible to arrange.

Back in the Peter Nowak era, I would actually feel frustrated watching the USMNT play. Why couldn’t they look as good as DC United? I don’t think DC United was actually the better team even then, but international sides don’t get much practice time together and usually look more disjointed than high-performing club teams. And it’s hard to imagine now, but back then DC United was an aggressive and confident side, whereas the USMNT then (as in almost every era) just tried to get results against good teams through discipline and hustle.

Today, things are completely reversed. DC United is the underdog who tries to get results against good MLS teams through discipline and hustle. Whereas the US was playing discipline-and-hustle-ball in 2022, Gregg Berhalter’s dreams of disorganizing the opponent with the ball aside. Now it’s 2026, though, and in recent friendlies Mauricio Pochettino has the US playing free-flowing attacking soccer as if it’s one of the world’s top sides.

The US still isn’t one of the world’s top sides, mind you, and I’m worried about how playing this way will go against an actual top side in a game that really matters, but it sure was a lot more fun to watch the US dismantle Senegal in the first half of that friendly than it has been to see DC United try to grind out results with an offense that scores almost entirely through set pieces.

Anyway, the point here is that there’s no comparison in terms of absolute quality, but I still think it’s fun to go player by player in the starting XI and compare styles of play and perhaps their relative quality.

Note we don’t really know for sure what lineup Pochettino will use in the World Cup, but I think we can make some pretty good guesses.

Coach: René Weiler vs. Mauricio Pochettino

There’s actually some similarities here. René Weiler is a foreign coach hired after an American coach was fired, he’s had bigger jobs than this one, he’s paid a lot more than his predecessors, and fans are convinced he’s just a short-term hire. That’s all true for Pochettino as well. Just as Anderlecht and Al Ahly are bigger clubs than DC United, managing PSG and Chelsea was a bigger deal than managing the USMNT.

They both want their teams to press the opponent aggressively at times, but otherwise the style of play looks pretty different. Pochettino wants his teams to build from the back and disorganize the opponent, and when you have the sort of players he did with PSG and Chelsea, that’s the right idea. I can’t say I watched Weiler’s previous teams play, but the few anecdotal remarks I heard about his time with Anderlecht and Al Ahly (each of which might be thought of as the PSG of Belgium and Egypt, respectively) was fans complaining he was too conservative. Pochettino prefers a 4-2-3-1 whereas so far with DC René Weiler has only made mild variations from a 4-4-2.

We don’t really know what Weiler is like as a man manager, but again anecdotal reports are that he’s not really a people person. Pochettino can be a real character, but seems to have a pretty good ability to coach and motivate talented players.

Goalkeeper: Sean Johnson vs. Matt Freese

This might be the closest quality call in the lineup. Sean Johnson was on the US World Cup roster in 2022, admittedly as the third choice vibes guy, but in his prime I’d take him over Matt Freese. The “shots prevented” stat is pretty dubious, but it’s somewhat meaningful over large samples. So far this season, Fotmob lists Sean Johnson at 14th and Matt Freese at…15th. What about last season for a bigger sample? Sean Johnson was 1st in MLS by a huge margin last season, whereas Freese was 17th.

If you believe those stats, Matt Turner should definitely be the starter instead of Freese’s backup. Hell, Sean Johnson should be ahead of Freese in the lineup!

There’s more to life than those stats, however. Age is catching up to Johnson and I think Freese is in fact a better shot-stopper. Also, Pochettino really wants to build out of the back and Freese is much, much better with the ball at his feet than Sean Johnson. And somewhat better than Turner, which I assume is why he seems to be the starter even though Turner is playing really well at the moment.

Left Back: Keisuke Kurokawa vs. Antonee Robinson

Both of these guys are high-work-rate players. Kurokawa reminds me a bit of Robinson much earlier in his career, when he worked hard but struggled more with his touch. That was when Robinson was 23. He got better and in addition to being faster than Kurokawa, he’s taller, more physical, and on his good days more technical. That’s a great set of attributes for a defender, so he was at least in the conversation when speaking about the best left backs in the Premier League until his recent injury issues.

Kurokawa is 29, so he won’t be getting better. He’s still a solid MLS player, but sadly he won’t get the respect he deserves in MLS unless the rest of DC plays a lot better than it has been.

Left centerback: Kye Rowles vs. Tim Ream

This comparison doesn’t do either of these guys any favors.

Tim Ream is a really good progressive passer. He’s so good at this that Pochettino can’t bear to bench him despite the fact that age has made Ream inferior in every other way to Mark Mackenzie and even Auston Trusty. What about Kye Rowles? He hits one or two good progressive passes in a game. But by DC United standards, that’s pretty good!

But it’s also a bit harsh on Rowles because at 38, Ream is real liability in terms of covering ground and he’s never been reliable in the air. In relative terms, Rowles is a much better all-around player. But he does get caught upfield and bypassed, and this happens frequently enough to make me nervous about him in a way that’s vaguely similar to how I’m currently nervous about Ream.

Note DC’s probable future starter in this spot, Nikola Markovic, seems like he’ll be able to pass (at the MLS level) much more like the way Ream does, which I think is a big reason why Weiler loves him as much as Pochettino loves Ream. But Markovic is good in the air and a big, physical guy who in US national team terms reminds me more of Oguchi Onyewu or, more recently, Walker Zimmerman.

Right Centerback: Lucas Bartlett vs. Mark Mackenzie

I’m not sure if Mark Mackenzie is actually going to start so we don’t need to belabor this. At the international level, Mackenzie is good, not great, and occasionally makes a very dangerous mistake. I think Bartlett is a bit more jagged, he’s great in the air but just a bit slow, but it’s far from the worst comparison I’ll be making.

The real person we hope can start here is Chris Richards. Richards has grown into an unquestioned EPL starter and is good at everything. DC United doesn’t have any centerbacks like this and to be honest I can’t remember when they did. Steven Birnbaum or Bobby Boswell in their primes, maybe? They weren’t asked to pass like a modern centerback, though. DC fans are still hoping that a new centerback arrives in the summer or winter transfer windows who can be the Chris Richards of the unit.

Meanwhile, for some reason, Miles Robinson started against Germany, but he’s been struggling for both club and country. In his prime, Robinson was a very good MLS player, a rare centerback who was genuinely fast, another sort of player I don’t think DC United has ever had. If a Chris Richards analogue isn’t available, a player like the somewhat younger Miles Robinson would be great for a team like DC that wants to compress the field with a high line.

Right fullback: Silvan Hefti vs. Alex Freeman

Here’s the first one where I have to say: these guys have absolutely nothing in common. Alex Freeman is young, tall, an incredible athlete, and though right now his touch comes and goes, he shows signs that he might develop into the sort of fullback who can destabilize defenses with his attacking skills. Silvan Hefti is 28, average height, an average athlete, but his touch is pretty good.

Even looking at the American backups, Max Arfsten is a much better attacker, both in absolute terms (obvious since they both play in MLS where Arfsten has a long track record of more goals and assists) and I think in relative terms his skills are very attacking-weighted. I’m not sure he’s a worse defender than Hefti, but at the international level he’s much more suspect than Hefti is in MLS. Joe Scally has the opposite issue, he doesn’t have Hefti’s ball security and is actually more defensive in terms of skill balance.

Maybe Conner Antley is DC United’s Joe Scally? Yeah, we’ll go with that. For former DC players who are analogues to Freeman, I think Aaron Herrera isn’t a bad comp (uh, spoiler alert for that news roundup).

Defensive Midfielder: Matti Peltola vs. Tyler Adams

So far, except for the goalkeepers I guess, this exercise has been comparing a lot of guys who don’t really play the same way. But Tyler Adams is a Red Bull system player and has made a career playing exactly how Matti Peltola is asked to play for DC United. They’re exactly the same kind of player.

Tyler Adams is better than Matti Peltola in every possible way. Not just in the usual “USMNT players are better than DC United players” sense. Tyler Adams is one of the best players in the world at being a destroyer. Like, maybe top 10 in the whole world? Way, way better in relative terms than Chris Richards is a centerback or Christian Pulisic is a winger. Unfortunately for Adams, the world’s top teams dominate possession and don’t play with pure destroyers, so instead of playing for PSG or Barcelona, he plays for Bournemouth, which finished sixth in the EPL this season and so has a real claim for being one of the best sides in the world who doesn’t dominate possession.

If you could wave a wand and move one player from the US national team to DC United, I’d take…well, fine, it would be better for ticket sales and probably for results to take Christian Pulisic, but for the way DC United wants to play…actually maybe I’d take Malik Tillman. But I’m trying to say Tyler Adams would be a very strong choice. With Adams’ ability to cover ground, DC’s other central midfielder would have far less defensive responsibilities and be much better able to contribute more to the attack.

The only negatives with Adams are that he is somewhat injury-prone and that, in my opinion, he commits too many unnecessary fouls, like the one that led to the first German goal in the recent friendly. Unfortunately, he hasn’t looked all that sharp in the last few months for club or country, possibly due to nagging injuries.

All that said, Matti Peltola is having a great season and has been one of DC’s best players. He’s always had flashes of being a good destroyer, but he’s been more consistent, and this season he’s been a lot more positive in possession.

Central midfielder: Brandon Servania vs. Malik Tillman

Brandon Servania is not particularly good at anything, but he’s solid against the ball and in possession. Malik Tillman is also a two-way player, but he’s much, much better in relative terms than Servania. And really the comparison falls down when you get to offense, where Tillman isn’t just “solid”, he’s a genuinely creative player, the kind the US almost never produces (and didn’t in this case since Tillman developed in Germany).

Tillman started his career as a creative #10, but there isn’t much room in the modern game for luxury #10s who aren’t already legendary players, so he had to go to the school of hard knocks (Rangers in Scotland) to learn to play defense. But unlike so many creative attackers, he actually did learn this. That’s why it seems like there’s a good chance he’ll start in the double pivot instead of closer to goal. Wherever he plays, his athleticism and high defensive IQ means he’s probably the USMNT starter most likely to win possession in the press.

Andre Dozzell, the incoming DC player who is widely believed to have been brought in as an upgrade for Servania, has some of the creativity that Tillman has and Servania lacks. But he doesn’t have Tillman’s athletic gifts and hasn’t been a high usage player, so it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be.

Winger: Peglow vs. Sergiño Dest

Now that we’re at the front four, the positions no longer are going to directly compare, so I’m going to cheat a bit. Peglow plays on the left for DC whereas Sergiño Dest is playing right wing for Pochettino, but they’re both right-footed. Peglow is much more of a wide midfielder than a true winger, but then Dest has spent almost his entire career at fullback or wingback before Pochettino recently moved him up.

Even though he’s “really” a fullback, Dest has always been an attacker at heart. He loves flashy moves and plays with the most flair of any current American player. Peglow is the closest DC United equivalent as DC’s highest flair guy, and while I don’t think he’s ever been seen as an actual defender like Dest, Peglow puts in above-average effort on defense and does pretty well.

Dest’s defense is pretty good, as you would expect, but his unusually strong attacking skills have meant that he has found himself at places like Barcelona and AC Milan where “pretty good” defense isn’t acceptable. Barcelona tried moving him to winger amidst injuries to their attacking corps and, as is usually the case, “he’s a really good attacker for a defender” didn’t translate into being a good winger. His recent move to winger for the US has seemed to be working far better, either because the expectations are a bit lower for the US than for Barcelona, or more optimistically because he’s a more experienced player and is just better at this now.

Going back through DC history, the perfect match for Dest is Andy Najar, particularly his post-European phase at DC and now, sadly, with Nashville. In relative terms I think Najar is a better defender, but like Dest he loves showing off skill moves and can really destabilize an opponent.

Attacking midfielder: Jackson Hopkins vs. Weston McKennie

I couldn’t resist putting these two together because they’re both highly-regarded players who don’t seem like a perfect fit for any particular position and so get moved around a lot. But also it’s a funny comparison because otherwise they aren’t very similar. I think this does help show just how far Hopkins has to go to reach the potential people say he has.

Hopkins has gotten his reputation from some bright attacking moments that are usually nice individual moments of dribbling or shooting. He’s never looked like even an average defender, he can’t impose himself on a game, his work rate is adequate at best, and although he’s tall, he’s not very physical.

McKennie, by contrast, has the sort of speed and acceleration that enable him to cover ground in central midfield. He also has the physicality to win duels in the center of the field. He’s got the work rate to play wingback. He has the defensive chops to play as a purely defensive midfielder or even a fullback, but he’s also creative enough in combination that I expect him to start as the #10 for the US. And last but not least, he’s very good in the air.

To sum it up rather brutally, Hopkins is a positional tweener because he has some good qualities but has major drawbacks at central midfield, wide midfield, #10, and second forward. McKennie is a tweener because he’s very good at all those positions except second forward, while also being very good at wingback and fullback.

Like Sergiño Dest, McKennie has suffered a bit because he’s been good enough to play for the sort of top team that can hope to play absolutely world-class players at many positions, so being “very good” at lots of positions means there’s always room for him on the field but his spot never feels safe.

Another contrast is that Hopkins has impressed three straight coaches in practice, but their enthusiasm fades with his play on the field. With each new coach, McKennie makes a bad first impression and famously struggles to even stay on the roster during preseason, but as soon as they see him on the field in a real game they love him.

For a historical DC player comparison, I think DC United’s most recent World Cup player Ben Olsen might be the best match for McKennie. He didn’t have McKennie’s height, but he made up for that with a much more intense personality. I think Olsen was originally faster, at least relatively, but after his injuries he was flexible enough reinvent himself as a central midfielder.

Second forward: Louis Munteanu vs. Christian Pulisic

Yeah…these guys are nothing alike, but it’s been ages since the USMNT played with two true forwards so there’s no getting around it. For one thing, I said “second forward” but Pulisic plays on the left wing for the US almost exclusively. But he has played second forward a fair amount for Milan this season, so it’s not completely out of nowhere.

Munteanu’s strength as a forward seems to be his positioning and poacher’s instincts. Pulisic has a lot of this too, but his other attributes are so different it obscures any similarity. Pulisic is a small and fast guy who is deadly as a runner zooming on to a pass or loose ball in the box. He’s also a creative passer, albeit mainly in situations where his speed has already unbalanced the defense. When he’s hot, he’s also got an incredible touch and can destroy people on the dribble. Unfortunately, he only has two settings as a player: scorching hot or arctic cold, and when he’s cold, he can be worse than useless. Fortunately, he usually rises to the occasion in big games.

Munteanu, for his part, is tall and slow, but seems to be a pretty decent passer in the final third. Time will tell about how streaky he is. Time might also tell whether he’s a big game player or not, but first DC United has to find a way to play some big games. On the US roster, Ricardo Pepi is a slightly better match, but it’s still not very comparable.

No one who has ever played for DC United had Pulisic’s combination of attributes. There are MLS players who are fast (Ruan and Darren Mattocks are the recent examples for DC United), but players who are both genuinely fast and good at anything else are too valuable to stay in MLS.

Forward: Tai Baribo vs. Folarin Balogun

Tai Baribo made his name running on to one-touch finishes in transition for the Philadelphia Union and to the extent DC United’s sputtering offense has created those opportunities for him, he’s done the same in DC.

Folarin Balogun can and does score those goals, but he’s a lot taller and fast enough to make runs in behind the backline. He’s slightly suspect as a finisher but makes up for it with positioning that gets him more chances than most forwards. He’s a much more well-rounded forward than Baribo and pretty much anyone I can think of who has played forward for DC.

From the other American forwards, Haji Wright used to be a winger but lately with Coventry has turned into a forward who plays a little more like Baribo than Balogun at least, though he’s also a lot taller.

Substitutes

I’m going to resist the urge to waste everyone’s time going through the rest of the US roster and trying to explain to you why Gio Reyna is kind of like Randall Leal if you squint.

But I’ll note that in 2022, the US national team had a huge talent dropoff between the starting lineup and the bench. Berhalter had to ride his starters hard and by the knockout round the midfielders were exhausted. That’s very much in line with DC United this season under Weiler, who probably would make only one sub a game if he could get away with it.

Fortunately for USMNT fans, in 2026 the team has good depth at many positions and genuinely impactful attacking subs. Gio Reyna, Tim Weah, and Alejandro Zendejas all have particular strengths that, in addition to their overall talent, give Pochettino situational options for particular opponents, options that Weiler just completely lacks at the moment. Even Brenden Aaronson is genuinely great in the sort of defensive attacker role that Weiler has been asking Brandon Servania to do.

Aaronson, by the way, has got to be the player whose value as a DC United player would most outstrip USMNT fan sentiment about him. Sure, DC United would benefit from having any of these guys and players like Chris Richards, Tyler Adams, and Christian Pulisic would provide more value, but those players are also widely considered the best. Many fans probably didn’t even want Brendan Aaronson on the roster, but man, he would be amazing for DC United as a wide midfielder, central midfielder, or second forward given DC’s Red Bull-inflected play style.

The place where the 2026 USMNT team really is like DC United is that both teams don’t have much midfield depth. DC doesn’t have quality depth at most positions anyway, but with the US it was Pochettino’s choice to pick a roster with a ton of centerbacks and just hope that Tyler Adams can stay healthy.

Extra Time

For paid subscribers, let’s wrap up with a quick rant about all the talk I’ve seen in soccer media about how, variously, MLS has wasted the golden opportunity of the 2026 World Cup by not spending more on rosters beforehand, how FIFA ruined the golden opportunity by charging too much, how political polarization is ruining the golden opportunity by poisoning fans’ relationship with national iconography, etc. I’d love to be wrong, but I’m pretty sure there’s no opportunity to ruin.

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Game Context

CF Montréal arrived after climbing the table with a decent run of home form, but still with just one win amid six losses on the road. Their disappointing DP loanee, Ivan Jaime, didn’t play after the team elected not to exercise its purchase option.

DC was in a similar boat, looking to improve its home form and playing without Gabriel Pirani and Aaron Herrera, who are expected to depart in the midseason window. As with Ivan Jaime, these were expensive players who in theory DC was going to be worse without but who in practice hadn’t made much impact this season.

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #19 (DC United) vs. #23 (CF Montréal).

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Formation

The starting lineup was exactly as I predicted, not because I’m a genius (though actually, let’s not rule that out too quickly) but because Weiler is quite predictable and doesn’t have a lot of options. I might as well reuse my lineup image from the preview:

With DC clinging to a 3-2 lead at 67 minutes, Weiler brought on Jackson Hopkins and Nikola Markovic for Jared Stroud and Tai Baribo. Brandon Servania moved to forward, replaced in midfield by Markovic, while Hopkins played in right midfield.

Jason Anderson said that after this, they were playing a 4-5-1 with Servania playing as a #10. If he says it, he’s probably right, but I didn’t find it to be very different, if at all. DC still defended out of a 4-4-2 with Servania up next to Louis. When playing forward Servania does come back for the ball more, so fine, maybe he was told to be a midfielder, but I wonder how much of that is just his midfielder instincts. Since Servania is obviously pretty limited as an attacker, my interpretation of this move is that it’s Weiler wanting more ground covered defensively from a forward than he’ll get from a sub like Jacob Murrell.

Conner Antley came on for Silvan Hefti in the 78th minute to replace him at right back. Hosei Kijima came on very late for Louis Munteanu for a brief cameo playing forward.

Game Flow and Goal Breakdowns

Kickoff through Halftime

Montréal came in playing similar to DC and if anything played with even more intensity. They pressed aggressively at times on defense and when they got the ball, they were happy to send the ball up to their target forward Prince Owusu, who would try to connect with onrushing midfielders. Montréal’s 4-3-3 shape gave them a numbers advantage over DC’s two-man central midfield.

For their part, DC United pressed a little bit but mostly sat back in their compact defense. When DC got the ball, Peglow and especially Stroud immediately moved up to join the forwards in a line of four. There was no attempt to contest the midfield. Instead, the ball was played long from the defense over the midfield to the forwards and outside midfielders.

DC won this half pretty decisively. The half ended with DC edging Montréal on both possession and pass completion percentage. I didn’t go back and check but I’m not sure that’s ever happened this season before this. DC is last in the league in possession, for example. In his press conferences, Weiler is perfectly willing to call a spade a spade and say his team is bad, but when asked about possession he smiles and says he doesn’t want possession, he wants to score more goals than the opponent.

However, as has often been the case lately, it was set plays where DC racked up most of its chances. That was why they ended up outshooting Montréal 12-6 and had a 1.25 - 0.30 xG advantage.

9’ Louis Munteanu 1-0

The first set piece goal comes from a Matti Peltola free kick. But should this have been called back for a foul? And what is the name of Louis’ celebration? Lots of cover in the video.

28’ Jared Stroud 2-0

The next set piece was a Kurokawa corner kick. Lots to consider here as well, with Bartlett making (in my opinion) a mistake and some interesting celebration choices.

45+1’ Prince Owusu 2-1

Montréal’s goal comes off what appears to be a bad mistake by Lucas Bartlett, but as we’ll see in the video, if you look very closely…no, just kidding, it’s a very bad mistake.

Halftime through Fulltime

The second half got off to a great start. Let’s just go straight to the next goal video.

51’ Tai Baribo 3-1

Here we can think about Stroud’s crossing, whether Bartlett goes down too easily, and how to determine whether someone is a big DC United fan.

I haven’t gone back to watch the game a second time so I guess this could be wrong, but I think Montréal made an adjustment to their game plan and instead of having Owusu post up in DC’s half and having him try to head the ball to runners who, in Montréal’s case, inevitably misplay their passes, instead they started sending deep balls for him to run after. This proved extremely effective, resulting not just in their next three goals but also some other very good chances.

This was especially true in the final quarter of the game, where tired legs (I assume) resulted in more space for Montréal in DC’s normally compact defense. The game got very stretched and though there were chances on both sides, including what became DC’s fourth goal, Montréal clearly had the better of the half and could easily have won the game.

In contrast to the first half, Montréal outshot DC 16-6 and had 2.69 xG to DC’s 1.38. I’m never quite sure what to make of the “big chances” stat, but in the first half Fotmob shows DC and Montréal each having one, whereas in the second half, Montréal had seven and DC had four. That matches my sense of how things fell apart. I went back through DC’s games this season and typically DC gives up between zero and two big chances. They’ve never given up seven before, though admittedly they gave up six on two occasions.

61’ Prince Owusu 3-2

Montréal pulls one back with a surprisingly easy long ball to Owusu. The commentary and DC fans blame Bartlett, but this time I disagree.

87’ Lucas Bartlett 4-2

DC’s set piece offense continues with another Kurokawa corner kick and Bartlett redeems himself for his mistake on the first goal.

90+4’ Prince Owusu 4-3

Penalties: who did it better? And more importantly, whose fault is it that the penalty was conceded?

90+6’ Hennadii Synchuk 4-4

This one I thought was Bartlett’s fault when it happened in the stadium, but as we’ll see, I think the blame lies elsewhere. At least one DC player has learned a valuable lesson.

Expected Goals

DC did better in the first half and Montréal did better in the second, but Montréal ended up on top of most statistical categories. They outshot DC 22-18 and had the overall xG edge 2.99 - 2.63.

Louis Munteanu’s point blank header was 0.42 xG. Jared Stroud’s shot was just 0.05 xG, but the placement was perfect and garned 0.65 xGOT. Baribo’s penalty was given the standard score of 0.79, but his placement was 0.99 xGOT. Bartlett’s headed goal was 0.19 xG but 0.83 xGOT.

DC’s highest xG chance that didn’t score was Louis Munteanu’s close-range sidewinding kick off a long throw in first half stoppage time that was blocked. That rated 0.31 xG, just a bit more than Baribo’s flick in the second half that missed the far post and tallied 0.29 xG despite being an objectively more dangerous situation in my opinion when you factor in where the goalkeeper and defenders were in each case.

For Montréal, Owusu’s first goal was just 0.06 xG and 0.08 xGOT, which I don’t feel takes into account the fact it was a breakaway (Sean Johnson’s shotstopping numbers really suffer as a result here in a way I don’t think at all accurately speaks to his play, which is why I am always casting aspersions on shotstopping stats). Owusu’s second goal was 0.10 xG, but 0.54 xGOT with his placement. He completed the hat trick with a penalty that was considered 0.74 xGOT. And Synchuk’s tying goal was 0.53 xG but 0.93 xGOT with his placement.

Montréal’s best other opportunity was a 70th minute show by Synchuk from right in front of goal that was worth 0.44 xG. Johnson saved that one.

Player Ratings

Starters

Sean Johnson - 5 - Made some good saves. With DC’s previous goalkeeping I think even more goals would have been scored, but then again at least Owusu’s first goal was savable on a really good day.

Keisuke Kurokawa - 6 - I thought he had a great game. Accurate on corners and played well on the overlap. The only complaint is about his sliding technique, but even there it’s possible the ball just goes in if he doesn’t have his hands up, and in any case it was a great play for him to even be in position to concede the penalty.

Kye Rowles - 4 - I thought he was really good in the first half, but the game lasts 90 minutes and Owusu got the better of him on both the goals in stoppage time. I hope he makes Australia’s World Cup team but those last few minutes weren’t a great advertisement.

Lucas Bartlett - 4 - I only blame him for the first goal, but man, that was completely unnecessary goal to give up. If DC wins this game 4-3, his late goal would have been a perfect in-game redemption arc. Still a nice header though, and without that and the penalty he earned DC could easily have lost the game.

Silvan Hefti - 4 - Mainly dinging him for not being in position for the third goal they scored, but he was also not very involved in possession. Most of the action was down DC’s left in this game.

Matti Peltola - 5 - Defensively he was a big part of the successful first half, but then not as influential as both teams gave up on the midfield.

Brandon Servania - 6 - He got both of his extreme long range shots on frame with the first setting up DC’s first goal. He continues to not be effective as a forward or attacking midfielder, but he ran hard on defense and I assume that’s what Weiler wants from him when he moves him there.

Peglow - 6 - This game was the typical Peglow experience: lots of industry overall, a couple very nice passes, a really slick move or two, and an opposition goal (the fourth) where arguably he should have hustled back to help.

Jared Stroud - 6 - The goal was just a little lucky, if only to get through all the players in the box, but he made some of his own luck by taking such a quick shot and going for placement instead of power. Even without the goal, this was one of his better games. I think he made a good case that he should continue starting over Hopkins at right midfield…unless someone else is brought in during the window who sends them both to the bench.

Louis Munteanu - 6 - Another poacher’s goal following up Servania’s shot and some creative passes in the attack as well. I think there’s still a lot of room for him and Baribo to improve as a unit.

Tai Baribo - 6 - Clinical penalty and came pretty close with a flick soon after that. Since coming back from his injury, he hasn’t been able to play with the same work rate. Hopefully that’ll come back during the break.

Substitutes

Nikola Markovic - 5 - Won all three of his aerial duels, but otherwise wasn’t able to make much of a mark with the game stretched out and the midfield being bypassed.

Jackson Hopkins - 5 - Didn’t play badly per se, but him coming in for Stroud felt like a step down rather than an upgrade or at least a spark.

Conner Antley - 5 - Didn’t shore up the defense or help DC kill the game, but not at fault on the late goals either.

Hosei Kijima - 5 - It wasn’t much, but getting a tiny cameo in this game (his first minutes since playing the first half against Knoxville and first regular season appearance since late March) seems like a gesture meant to show Weiler hasn’t given up on him completely and that he might still work his way into some kind of role after the break. No such consolation for Caden Clark.

Standings

This point sees DC United sink to 9th place in the Eastern Conference, overtaken by FC Cincinnati after their 6-2 win over Orlando City. DC sits at 18th in the Supporter’s Shield standings, precisely balanced with their place in the East for the first time all season.

For the time being, and thanks to the schedule that time will be two months, there are some clear strata in the Eastern Conference. Nashville and Miami are the clear best teams at 31-33 points. Chicago, and New England are the second tier and occupy the rest of the home field advantage playoff spots with 25-26 points.

Past that, there’s what we could call “upper midtable teams” filling out the rest of the playoff spots: the Red Bulls, Charlotte, Cincinnati, NYCFC, and DC United from 18-22 points. The lower midtable is the small cluster of teams on the outside looking in, ranging from 14 to 16 points: Montréal, Orlando, Toronto, Columbus, and Atlanta.

Then there’s Atlanta with 11 points and the Philadelphia Union in the caboose with 7.

It think it’s a real achievement from Weiler, Sogut, and the players that together they have elevated DC United to 9th place and, just barely, into that “upper midtable” group. Of course, these groups definitely won’t stay stable for more than a few games once the season resumes, so now attention shifts to the transfer market arms race. Much will depend on how much DC can improve via midseason moves compared to what its midtable competitors do.

Coming Up

DC United will take a break for the next two months for the World Cup, then return on July 22nd with a road match against Ben Olsen’s Houston Dynamo. The Dynamo have the same goal difference as DC but they’ve distributed the goals better and sit in 6th in the more challenging Western Conference, so that'll be a game where DC could get a result, but only if they play very well.

That’s a Wednesday game, so on relatively short rest DC will return and the following Saturday take on Toronto FC. Then, the following week, they welcome East leaders Nashville to Audi Field.

Extra Time

Having wrapped up the first portion of the season, today let’s take stock of how René Weiler has done so far as manager. If you’ve been reading me you know I’m pretty positive, but I have to say the Montréal game reinforces one apparent negative aspect to his tenure. So we’ll look at the overall team performance, his player selections, “man management”, player development, and tactics.

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Hopefully there will be at least one or two more transfers to discuss somewhere in there, and probably some outgoing moves as well. Depending on how much there is to talk about, there might be one or two less timely fun articles mixed in as well.

I’m not sure what the exact schedule will end up being, but subscribe if you haven’t yet and you’ll get posts in your email as soon as they’re ready.

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Guessing the Lineup

With DC’s good injury luck continuing, the only question is whether Jackson Hopkins will start again at right midfield or if Jared Stroud has earned another chance to start after having a pretty good game last week. I’m going to go against my usual advice of just going with the previous starting 11 and guess that Stroud will start. I suppose it’s possible that if he does, Hopkins will start over Brandon Servania in midfield, so that’s another question mark.

Backup goalkeepers: Alex Bono, Jordan Farr

Backup defenders: Conner Antley, Nikola Markovic

Backup attackers: Jackson Hopkins, Jacob Murrell, Gavin Turner, Caden Clark, Hosei Kijima

Not selected: Aaron Herrera, Gabriel Pirani, Oscar Avilez, Jordan Farr, Grant Leveille

Injured: Sean Nealis, Hakim Karamoko, Gabe Segal

On loan: Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Kim Joon Hong

Minutes Played Contest Update

Attie’s Daddy has a 102 point lead going into the final game. With no multipliers, the points correspond directly to minutes played by selected players, so that’s a very strong lead…but not quite insurmountable. If Jackson Hopkins doesn’t start and, uh, also doesn’t get off the bench, we could see a last minute upset from AduWho or DCUPlayoffDreamer.

Actually, looking at things again, I’m not going to take the time to work it out precisely but I think DCUPlayoffDreamer can’t actually catch Attie’s Daddy. Sorry, Dreamer, but your entry is too similar. Basically, I think AduWho needs Jackson Hopkins not to play, whereas Benny Ball needs Lucas Bartlett not to play. That’s just to have a chance. Then they’ll need more help, like Jacob Murrell getting more minutes than Jared Stroud in the case of AduWho.

So yeah, very likely that Attie’s Daddy has this, but there’s still that tiny chance…

We’ve been talking briefly about one category a week while the contest runs. The last category of selections to discuss is the “Long Shots”:

Unless something surprising happens, there was only one correct answer: Conner Antley, who has played 15 minutes this season. True to the category name, none of the others have played in this five-match span. Lots of people, though certainly not everyone, picked Antley and got this right. It does seem extremely obvious now, but Antley had only played in the Open Cup and had zero regular season minutes when this round of the contest started.

Past that, by far the most selections went to Sean Nealis, hoping he might return from injury, but alas, that hasn’t happened. Gabriel Pirani, meanwhile, was a long shot bet that he might reconcile with Weiler. Nope. And Oscar Avilez, well, he’s a field player who as far as we know isn’t injured, so that counts for something, but he’s just 16 and ought to be playing in MLS Next Pro or USL. Maybe he’s finishing school or something?

If I’m not mistaken, besides Antley, only Alex Bono and Jordan Farr have even made the bench, so I think with the benefit of hindsight the best second choice would have been Bono, but it’ll take an injury to Sean Johnson for him to get any minutes.

The Opposition: CF Montréal

CF Montréal was very bad last season, finishing 13th in the Eastern Conference and just two points ahead of DC United. Unlike DC, which has been spending midtable money and getting bottom-of-table results, Montréal has been spending bottom dollar and then trying, and usually failing, to sneak into the playoffs with kids and journeymen. Last season, that meant going through the year with a single DP, Giacomo Vrioni, whose salary was mostly being paid by the New England Revolution just so they could be rid of him.

Vrioni actually did well when he got on the field, but he spent most of the season hurt. They brought in a second DP last summer, but it was another distressed asset: Ivan Jaime, a 24 year old Spaniard who they got on loan from Valencia because, I assume, Valencia didn’t want him. Jaime’s claim to fame, such as it is, is that he had a decent season (9 goals, 3 assists) back in 2022 on a midtable team in Portugal. Not much else before or since.

Vrioni left after last season and wasn’t replaced, so yeah, they are back to just one DP, Jaime. To go with that they have just two TAM players and then three U22 players. I believe they are the only team in the league with more U22 players than TAM players. Two of those U22 players are defenders, though, and the other one, Hennadii Synchuk, is my go-to example for how teams mostly do dumb things with U22 signings.

Last year they paid 3.6 million dollars for Synchuk, a seemingly ambitious move, but he’s only 18 years old and had been playing in the Ukranian second division. Now, how does the Ukranian second division compare to MLS? I have no idea, but…come on. I wish I could believe this was some sort of covert money laundering to buy Ukraine weapons to resist the Russian invasion, but alas it’s more likely some agent is laughing all the way to the bank. Synchuk has one goal and no assists in only fourteen games worth of minutes across two seasons.

All this would be really dire for Montréal, but luckily they have been getting very good production from their 29-year-old TAM forward, Prince Owusu. Owusu is a big target forward who scored 13 goals last season and has 6 goals and 5 assists this season. That’s one goal contribution per game, a DP-level contribution for a TAM attacker, though half the goals were penalties.

Owusu is their main threat, but Wiki Carmona is having a decent season (four goals and one assist in eight games of minutes) after washing out of the Red Bulls where he was a homegrown player.

Anyway, due to their chronic underinvestment, Montréal was widely seen as a major Spoon contender this season and backed that up by losing six of their first seven games. Should be an easy win for DC United, then, right? Wrong. And not just because DC United isn’t good enough to have easy wins, although that’s also true.

To avoid sub-freezing games, Montréal starts each season with a backbreaking road trip. This year that was six games. No surprise, they lost nearly all those games. Well, maybe someone was surprised, because they fired their coach after a humiliating loss in their first home game to the now-terrible Philadelphia Union.

Since then, under interim manager Philippe Eullaffroy, I hate to admit it but…they have been doing pretty well? They have 3 wins, a draw, and two losses in those six games. Now, five of those games were at home and they lost the road game. Still, they seem like they are now on pace for a respectably lower-midtable sort of season.

In other words, they are very much capable of getting a draw or even a win at Audi Field. As René Weiler would say, it’s no time for DC United to dream.

What I’m Looking For

At this stage we know what we’re getting from most of the players, so I’m going to be paying close attention to Louis Munteanu and Tai Baribo to see if their chemistry is improving, both with each other and with their supporting cast. Past that, just win, baby! Winning could conceivably vault DC United back to 5th place, which would provide amazing vibes for the two month break.

Okay, okay, fifth place is really not likely. NYCFC would have to lose to Nashville, good chance of that, and Charlotte would have to lose at home to the Revolution, and that’s…certainly not impossible. But also the Red Bulls would have to lose to Sporting KC. Hmm. Hey, the game is being played in Kansas City and they’re on a two game winning streak!

Sorry, René, guess I started dreaming again. I’ll stop.

Extra Time

Today for paid subscribers, with the World Cup looming let’s do a little survey of DC United players and the World Cup over the years. I don’t know about you, maybe this was just me, but I had the vague sense that in a typical year there might be one or two DC United players competing in a World Cup. That was mistaken. But read on to find out the active DC United players who have gone, as well as who out of everyone who has ever played for DC United has the most World Cup minutes and appearances.

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Game Context

St. Louis City is near the bottom of the standings, but they had to be feeling optimistic after a midweek home win over LAFC. But with the Open Cup quarterfinals looming on Tuesday, manager Yoann Damet elected to rest several important starters.

DC United had the opposite experience in midweek, with the Chicago Fire delivering them a 1-3 reality check at Audi Field. DC had no upcoming midweek game, but René Weiler had been riding his preferred starters very hard and fatigue had to be building up.

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #15 (DC United) vs. #26 (St. Louis City).

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Formation

DC was in its usual 4-4-2 formation with the expected players. Sean Johnson was in goal behind a backline of Keisuke Kurokawa, Kye Rowles, Lucas Bartlett, and Silvan Hefti. Peglow, Brandon Servania, Matti Peltola, and Jackson Hopkins were in the midfield behind Tai Baribo and Louis Munteanu at forward.

When Jared Stroud came in for Matti Peltola in the 62nd minute, he played right midfield, moving Hopkins into the center. Conner Antley was a like-for-like sub for Kurokawa in the 78th minute, while Nikola Markovic came in at the same time for Hopkins to play in central midfield.

As time wound down, however, Bartlett moved to play as a third forward and Markovic took his spot at centerback.

Game Flow and Goal Breakdowns

Kickoff through 25’

Early in the game, DC United unexpectedly seemed to be having most of the possession. They also generated a number of dangerous counterattacks. They had six shots in this part of the game to just one for St. Louis, and it was starting to look like DC might dominate the game (if not the scoreboard).

25’ through halftime

Then it was as if a switch flipped. To be honest, I’m not sure there was a tactical change from St. Louis, or if their players just settled into the game. Whatever it was, suddenly they began dominating possession and taking most of the shots. I don’t always agree with these Fotmob momentum graphs, but this time it agreed with my intuition:

Still, St. Louis doesn’t have a lot of attacking talent at their best, and this was a rotated side with both their attacking DPs and their best TAM attacker not on the field. They had 13 shots in the first half but less than one expected goal. Only two of those shots were on target. Nine of them were blocked, which shows they were shooting without having really broken through DC’s defense.

By halftime, it felt like there would only be a single goal in this game, so the question was who would score it.

Halftime - 62’

Perhaps players were getting tired, or maybe each coaching staff made adjustments to shore up their defenses, because after halftime the game wasn’t nearly as wide open. DC United didn’t generate any shots in this period and St. Louis only got two, but one of them was the game’s first goal.

50’ Chris Durkin 0-1

In the stadium watching live, I confess I had no idea what went wrong. Unpacking everything made this my longest video yet.

62’ - Full time

St. Louis must have agreed with me that there was only one goal in this game, because once they scored the goal, they began sitting back farther and farther until they were bunkered in under constant pressure. This continued despite them subbing on two DP attackers and DC mostly subbing in defenders. DC generated two very good chances, a header from Baribo that was saved and a wide open header from Louis that unfortunately missed the target. I worried those were going to be the last good chances, but actually there were two more before the final whistle.

The first, of course, ended up being the tying goal.

90’ Peglow 1-1

This was far more straightforward, but there’s still a few things worth calling out, like Hefti’s nice pass prior to the corner kick.

The second chance seemed like the winning goal from Louis, a storybook finish for the new striker. The stadium went wild. I was like, man, this is going to be a VAR gauntlet, and so it proved, but I was worried about Rowles sticking his foot up in front of the goalkeeper and then whether Louis was onside. Actually the problem was with the initial header. Paid subscribers will get a video breakdown of the non-goal in the last section.

Having the winning goal awarded and then revoked was tough, but the game was only a few minutes from ending in a 0-1 loss, and I thought that 1-1 was a pretty fair result.

Expected Goals

Fotmob says that DC edged out a victory in expected goals, 1.00 - 0.94, and outshot St. Louis 16 - 15. Right after the game, St. Louis was listed as having the better xG, but I think Opta does a second pass on this stuff about a day later and in this case it resulted in St. Louis’ xG being lowered. Anyway, the updated values certainly fit my narrative that 1-1 was a fair result!

Unsurprisingly, St. Louis generated most of their xG in the first half when they had 12 of their 15 shots, giving them a 0.75 - 0.41 xG advantage to go with 12 - 7 shots. In the second half, DC’s waves of pressure meant outshooting St. Louis 9 - 3 and tallying 0.59 - 0.19 xG.

Peglow’s long distance goal was just 0.03 in xG and 0.10 in xGOT. That was tied for DC’s lowest xG shot on the night, but hey, it worked out. DC’s highest xG shots were three late shots all tied with 0.12 xG: Baribo’s header, Louis’ header, and Servania’s shot deep in stoppage time that went wide.

Chris Durkin’s goal was 0.14 xG and just 0.18 xGOT. I initially wrote this means Opta thought it was very savable, but really, Johnson was stuck at the near post due to the nature of the cutback and also Teucher’s dummy. Those circumstances aren’t captured by the models. St. Louis’ best other opportunity was also 0.14 xG, a header from centerback Fallou Fall on a first half corner kick.

Player Ratings

Starters

Sean Johnson - 6 - St. Louis only had three shots on goal, but he made two good saves and had a better game than usual with his distribution (a low bar admittedly). He did get very close to saving the St. Louis goal, but I don’t blame him for that one.

Keisuke Kurokawa - 5 - For the first time, he didn’t play the full 90 minutes. Maybe he’s human after all and was tired? It wasn’t his best game, but it wasn’t bad either.

Kye Rowles - 6 - Rowles continues to look a lot better than he did last year. I think he’s not a shoo-in for Australia’s World Cup roster, so I wonder if that has him playing harder. It will be interesting to see how he does after the World Cup break.

Lucas Bartlett - 5 - A tough game since he got beat on the goal and was the one offside on the go-ahead goal. But his aerial prowess is why there was even a goal to be disallowed and that continues to be essential to DC’s defense. His long passing was a bit more accurate than usual too.

Silvan Hefti - 5 - Very high usage rate this game. He’s especially useful when the team is behind because he’s pretty good at connecting passes in the final third. There aren’t many players on the roster who would make the pass he made to Stroud in the sequence leading to the corner that Peglow scored on.

Matti Peltola - 5 - Unusually uninvolved, just 19 touches in 62 minutes and not a lot of defensive contributions. I was surprised when he was subbed off (I assumed Stroud was coming in for Hopkins) but as with Kurokawa, maybe he was tired.

Brandon Servania - 5 - Maybe it’s just my imagination, but I feel like he’s played better since the news came that DC United had signed Andre Dozzell. He was a lot more involved than Peltola (usually it’s the reverse) and he did pretty well overall, but he’s still limited in the final third and arguably should have picked up Durkin during St. Louis’ goal sequence.

Peglow - 7 - One of his best games of the season: very involved and of course he scores the tying goal. At this point I think we’ve seen enough of Peglow to expect a good defensive workrate and occasional flashes of brilliance that raise expectations that are then disappointed. The goal this game was one of those flashes of brilliance.

Jackson Hopkins - 4 - As usual, he’s not dangerous enough as a right midfielder. My stance is that, unfortunately, he’s flawed at every position, but some people are still believers in him as a central midfielder. Well, he played a few minutes there in this game and wasn’t impressive. In his defense, he was tired and I think somewhat banged up. He was down on the ground after a collision early in the second half and I thought he wasn’t moving as well after that. That was why I was especially surprised when Stroud didn’t come in for him. It wasn’t until Markovic subbed on for him that DC really managed to put St. Louis under pressure, though I think that might have just been the game state as opposed to anything Markovic in particular did or Hopkins didn’t do.

Tai Baribo - 5 - Not as many touches as the team needs him to have, but that’s mostly not his fault. His defensive workrate was good, but not quite as good as before his injury. This was a big jump up in minutes, so I wonder if he was conserving energy knowing he would have to play the whole game.

Louis Munteanu - 6 - I like the fact he managed to take five shots. Two of them were his now trademark long distance attempts but three were inside the box. I wish they were more accurate, especially the free header late in the game, but hopefully it was just a bad day. He does deserve credit for scoring the winning goal by rushing to the far post in stoppage time since it’s not his fault the play was offside.

Substitutes

Jared Stroud - 5 - He brought some needed energy and while I don’t like how many of his crosses get blocked, DC scored on his ensuing corner after one of those blocked crosses, so maybe I need to stop complaining about this.

Conner Antley - 4 - He also brought needed energy, and in the moment I was pleased with how he was doing, I think because he was often carrying the ball to the St. Louis bunker mostly unopposed. There’s more to soccer than stats, but his stats don’t look so good: 3 for 8 passing, 0/1 crosses, 0/2 duels, 2 fouls committed, 0 defensive contributions.

Nikola Markovic - 5 - His passing was better, but otherwise a similar story to Antley. He wasn’t being asked to push as high as Antley, though. I’d like to see him stop making so many clumsy-looking fouls.

Standings

The draw sees DC United sink to 8th in the Eastern Conference after starting the week in 5th place. They’re two points behind 5th place NYCFC and three points ahead of 11th place Toronto, so the middle of the table remains tight. In the Supporter’s Shield standings that mix in the stronger West teams, DC United is down at 18th.

Coming Up

DC United has one more match before the World Cup break. They’re playing at home against a CF Montréal team that was viewed as one of the Wooden Spoon favorites going into the season but has recently scraped together some results, mainly against teams from New York City and the surrounding area.

After that, DC’s next game won’t be until July 22nd when they travel to face Ben Olsen’s Houston Dynamo on a Wednesday game, then host Toronto FC at Audi Field the following Saturday.

Extra Time

This time, paid subscribers get an extra video analyzing the disallowed goal, from the comical mishaps leading to the free kick to the offside decision to some hard-hitting analysis of how players celebrated the apparent last-second winner.

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Or maybe not? Under Weiler at the end of last season, Herrera played like he wanted to leave. When he got a dumb red card with one game remaining, I thought that would be the last we’d see of him. I was genuinely surprised to see him in the social media content for preseason. People were surprised when DC signed Silvan Hefti and started him immediately, but while most of us fans remember Herrera being one of the best players on the team in 2024, throughout Weiler’s tenure Herrera has rarely even been adequate.

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Guessing the Lineup

Since Tai Baribo was flung into the starting lineup on Wednesday and played well, at least in the first half, we’ll assume that will be the plan again. Between that and the return of Silvan Hefti from suspension, unless there’s an injury we don’t know about, this feels like the most obvious lineup of the year thus far.

Backup goalkeepers: Alex Bono

Backup defenders: Conner Antley, Nikola Markovic, Aaron Herrera

Backup attackers: Jared Stroud, Jacob Murrell, Gavin Turner, Caden Clark, Hosei Kijima

Not selected: Jordan Farr, Hakim Karamoko, Oscar Avilez, Grant Leveille

Injured: Sean Nealis, Gabe Segal

On loan: Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Kim Joon Hong

Minutes Played Contest Update

Attie’s Daddy retains the lead and is starting to look like they’re going to win thanks to some savvy choices like Louis Munteanu and Jared Stroud. But things are close enough that others could still take the lead. For example, AduWho has surged into second place. If Brandon Servania keeps playing full games and Jacob Murrell gets more time, they could still win.

Each preview I’m spotlighting a different category. Today’s is the fringe player category.

Without multipliers, there were no takers for Hosei Kijima. Multipliers might not have helped. Weiler just doesn’t seem to be a fan. Markovic was thought to be a slam dunk, and he has played a good amount, but so far Jared Stroud has actually played more minutes in this latest round than Markovic has! Jacob Murrell is getting comparatively small appearances, and Caden Clark and Gavin Turner are keeping Kijima company at the end of the bench.

The Opposition: St. Louis City

On paper, this ought to be a weak opponent. St. Louis City was bad last year, finishing 13th in the Western Conference and just six points ahead of last-in-the-league DC United. In the offseason, their most notable move was selling their leading goalscorer (Klauss), so naturally this year they’re 14th in the West. And they’re not playing at home, they’re making the trip to Audi Field.

Their offense has been very bad, scoring just 12 goals in 11 games. DC United’s weak offense has put up four more goals in one extra game. Only Sporting Kansas City has scored fewer than St. Louis, who have been shut out four times and only scored more than one goal in three games.

On the plus side, their defense is average. In fact maybe even a bit above average. At least in terms of overall goals allowed. They only have a single shutout on the season. Still, they have a similar profile to this year’s DC team (poor offense, decent defense), but a significantly worse record.

They are actually ahead of DC United in expected goal difference, thirteenth in the league, so according to the underlying numbers they’re underrated. And they could get better still: one of their key players, attacking midfielder Eduard Löwen, has only recently returned from injury and has a goal and an assist in less than two games’ worth of minutes.

So there’s been some bad luck, and also a tough schedule. They’re in the Western Conference, and they’ve lost four games to quite tough opponents: Seattle twice, LAFC on the road, and San Jose. They’ve also lost to Austin and the no-longer-tough San Diego. Meanwhile they beat New England and LAFC at home. They also have some respectable draws like home to Charlotte and on the road to FC Dallas and NYCFC.

In their midweek game against LAFC, they played a lot like DC United: they got an early goal, then sat back and did their best to be hard for LAFC to break down. The gameplan worked. In the rest of the game, each side ended up scoring once, first St. Louis on a Hugo Lloris blunder and then LAFC on a typically brilliant goal from David Martinez, so St. Louis held on for a two goal victory.

DC fans might see some familiar faces back at Audi Field in this one. Chris Durkin, now 26 years old, has started almost every game for St. Louis. He didn’t start against LAFC, though, because he got a second yellow in the previous match on a wild tackle that looked like a straight red to me. So he seems likely to start again, but then again, they just won their best win of the season without him.

Lukas MacNaughton might also play. He’s one of their backup centerbacks but already has four starts, including that LAFC victory where he played the full 90 minutes.

What I’m Looking For

This feels a bit like the NYCFC game, where I wanted to see DC’s offense produce goals against a pretty good defense. They got the job done against NYCFC, so fingers crossed they can do it again.

I suppose more broadly, after the team looked outclassed against Chicago, prompting a mini-rant from Weiler about how the team wasn’t as good as the standings make them look, I’d like to see them be at least even with St. Louis. And because they’re playing at home, even means slightly better. That’s charitably assuming the underlying numbers are right that St. Louis is closer to a midtable team than their actual table position.

Extra Time

The MLS Player’s Association released the salaries for MLS players this year. When we hit the World Cup break I plan to go in detail through the roster and what we know of the salary cap situation in an article everyone can read, but for now, here are a few first reactions for paid subscribers.

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Guessing the Lineup

I normally say that with Weiler, the best guess for the lineup is the last one. With Silvan Hefti suspended, that’s not an option. There’s actually two big questions.

One, will Tai Baribo be ready to start? To me, if he can even go forty-five minutes I’d really want him to start and play with Louis Munteanu. I assume, however, that he played as much as he was able in the last match, which was only about twelve minutes. Forty-five is a big jump from there only four days later, so I’m going to guess he’ll play 30 minutes as a sub.

The other question is how Weiler shuffles the right side of midfield. The simplest thing would be to leave Jared Stroud as the starter in midfield and put Aaron Herrera behind him at right back in place of Hefti. There are other possibilities, though. Weiler darling Nikola Markovic could play right back, or if Baribo does end up starting, maybe Jackson Hopkins plays the right midfield spot. Conner Antley could also be in the mix, though he’s been behind Herrera on the depth chart to this point. I’m going to be boring and guess Stroud/Herrera, but it’s not like either of them have played well enough to guarantee their spots.

One smaller note is that Hakim Karamoko has come off the injury report, so I’ll be watching to see if he makes the bench, especially in situations like this one where otherwise Weiler has just been adding Jordan Farr as a second goalkeeper sub. Once he’s fit, I think it’s more likely he’ll be sent off on loan, but we’ll see.

Backup goalkeepers: Alex Bono, Jordan Farr

Backup defenders: Conner Antley, Nikola Markovic

Backup attackers: Tai Baribo, Gavin Turner, Jacob Murrell, Caden Clark, Hosei Kijima

Suspended: Silvan Hefti

Not selected: Gabriel Pirani, Hakim Karamoko, Oscar Avilez, Grant Leveille

Injured: Sean Nealis, Gabe Segal

On loan: Richie Aman, Garrison Tubbs, Kim Joon Hong

Minutes Played Contest Update

Attie’s Daddy has surged into the lead following the Nashville game because they picked Lucas Bartlett as one of the frequent starters whereas DCUPlayoffDreamer picked Silvan Hefti. Right now they look pretty hard to catch since they also have Jared Stroud and Louis Munteanu, but we’ll see how it shakes out after this game!

In the Nashville preview I compared how the “Frequent Starters” were selected, so let’s moved on to the clumsily titled group “Frequent Starters Who Get Subbed”.

Pretty straightforward thinking on display here. Jackson Hopkins is a Weiler favorite who he’s been willing to play in multiple positions. Peglow, whatever his limitations, is clearly the best outside midfielder on the roster. Tai Baribo would have been a clear choice, but his injury complicates matters. Brandon Servania got benched for an entire game, and Aaron Herrera is rarely starting.

Of course with what we know now, Louis Munteanu seems like a clear starting forward and might have been the best choice, but even two games ago we didn’t know that! We also didn’t know Jared Stroud was going to begin starting over Herrera at right midfield. But thanks to Hefti’s red card, Aaron Herrera might also be in line to start and play 90 minutes against Chicago, which would go some distance towards narrowing the minutes gap he’s developing with the other players on this list.

The Opposition: Chicago Fire

As I’ve mentioned before, when Gregg Berhalter took over the Fire, people thought they knew what to expect. Berhalter is a former defender and during his tenure the US National Team had a strong defense but often struggled to create chances in attack. When Berhalter’s teams did create chances, they set up center forwards for open looks in front of goal.

It wasn’t a surprise that he elevated the previously terrible Fire into the outer reaches of the playoffs in 2025, finishing 8th, but how he did it was surprising. The Fire were a glass cannon, scoring more goals (68) than any team other than Inter Miami but also giving up more than all but five MLS teams (60).

This season, the Fire are in 4th place and doing well in a weak Eastern Conference, but they’re doing it much more like what we originally expected from Berhalter. Their defense is very good with 14 goals allowed in 11 games, but their offense is just average (20 goals scored). I know, DC United would love to have an average offense, but compared to last season it’s disappointing for Chicago.

It feels more disappointing at the moment because the Fire have had a small run of poor form, losing three straight home games in all competitions to St. Louis City (Open Cup, 1-2), FC Cincinnati (2-3), and most recently the New York Red Bulls (1-3).

Whatever the problem is, it’s not their star forward Hugo Cuypers. Just as expected with Berhalter, he’s scoring goals at a rapid rate and is leading the MLS Golden Boot race with 11 goals despite playing in only 8 games. So far, he’s scored in every single regular season game he’s played in, which is just absurd. Surely it’s not sustainable, but even DC’s usually strong defense will have their hands full keeping him off the scoresheet. They almost did the first time DC played Chicago this season, but he ended up scoring via a penalty.

Back when DC was playing them early in the season, Philip Zinckernagel was on a cold streak. His DP-level production on a TAM contract was a big reason their offense was so strong last season, and though he hadn’t notched any goals or assists when they played DC in game four, I thought he was the best player on the field. Since then, he’s tallied 4 goals and 3 assists in league play. 7 G+A in 10 games’ worth of minutes is pretty good, though 3 of those were against Sporting KC.

Chicago’s other DP attacker, Jonathan Bamba, has missed some time due to injury but has a respectable two goals and two assists. Berhalter’s usual shape is a 4-5-1 with Bamba and Zinckernagel playing as wingers, but apparently he has lately shifted to a 4-4-2.

Despite Chicago’s position in the table being enviable from a DC perspective, Chicago fans are unhappy after the recent home losses. They feel the team doesn’t have enough creativity on offense and is too dependent on finding Cuypers with crosses. Only five players have scored a goal: Cuypers, Zinckernagel, Bamba, second forward Maren Haile-Selassie, and midfielder Robin Lod.

Lod is injured and probably won’t play against DC United. The long term answer to the creativity problem, their third DP Andre Franco, won’t be back from his long-term injury until long after the World Cup break.

In the meantime, they’ll have to continue to rely on their defense, though it just gave up 6 goals in two games. Goalkeeper Chris Brady, still young at 22 even though he’s in his fourth season as Chicago’s starter, is having a pretty good year so far statistically.

What I’m Looking For

Although Nashville was a bit hobbled by injuries and fatigue, after that match it feels like DC can compete with anyone. We’re past moral victories against the likes of Chicago, especially since DC already won on the road against Chicago. I want to see them win at Audi Field as well.

But I’ll be watching the situation on the right side carefully. This is the first time this season that Hefti won’t be starting at right back. Hefti has been quite good, but even before the red card he’s had a few shaky moments. I could see the Aaron Herrera of two years ago making a real statement here. I’m not very hopeful of that happening, so to be honest with my analyst hat on, I’ll just watching to see exactly how much of a step down it is not having Hefti out there.

Extra Time

DC United is now unbeaten in its last five games since its defeat at the hands of One Knoxville in the Open Cup. But there’s only two wins in that period for a total of nine points. In the spirit of appreciating these moments that life gives us, today I’m going to consider how rare this is by looking for similar streaks in the past decade’s worth of DC United seasons.

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