Ang Traders

Weekly Summary Analysis

Ang Traders — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 01:50:10 GMT

SPX is poised for short-term strength over the next two weeks, driven by positive fund-flows and supportive liquidity models.
A 1/4 point Fed rate hike is likely, but not expected to trigger a recession or financial panic, with recession risk pushed to mid-2027.
Expect SPX weakness around mid-September due to tax-take and fiscal-year-end effects, potentially creating attractive buying opportunities.

Weekly Summary Analysis

Ang Traders — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 23:57:06 GMT

The $40T US Treasury ‘debt’ is misunderstood; it represents private sector savings, not a government solvency risk.
Net money creation and fund-flows are the primary drivers of SPX performance.
All four fund-flow metrics are higher than last year, supporting a likely SPX rally after short-term weakness.
The SPX is likely to rally before the expected weakness around the mid-September tax period.

TeoLazarev/iStock via Getty Images

The media ‘talking-heads’ are setting their hair on fire over the US stock of Treasuries (public “debt”) reaching the, seemingly terrifying, level of $40T. Panicked warnings about government bankruptcy, and calls for reduced government budget-deficits have filled the media space every day since. The fear mongering is truly impressive. Especially considering that the object of the fear is not even real, it is a misnomer; it is not “debt” and the government cannot go bankrupt.

Weekly Summary Analysis

Ang Traders — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:41:14 GMT

All four major fund-flow metrics are higher year-over-year, supporting a bullish outlook for the SPX into fiscal year-end.
Short-term models and technicals suggest SPX weakness around the August interest payment and upcoming tax-take, with support at 7650.
Liquidity and repo models indicate a near-term SPX dip before resuming a longer-term rally through late September and into year-end.
HY-spread and VIX sine wave models reinforce the expectation of higher SPX prices after short-term volatility subsides.

Muhammad Gunawansyah/iStock via Getty Images

Apologies for the late (and brief) summary. Someone got married this weekend.

Fund-Flows

Fund-flows as of August 13, 2026, compared to August 13, 2025 (219/252 business days of the fiscal-year):

Update

Ang Traders — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 03:15:42 GMT

The SPX is consolidating below 7800 resistance, with a potential pullback to 7650 support not altering the bullish outlook.
Quarterly interest payments from the ‘other reserves’ account often coincide with SPX weakness; the next payment is scheduled for August 17.
The BB-width model is peaking, signaling an impending correction in SPX.
Despite near-term co…

Tug-Of-War: Geopolitics vs Fund-Flows

Ang Traders — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 18:41:31 GMT

The market is being pressured by the Geopolitical situation (the failed "smash-and-grab" Iranian war), but the fund-flows continue to put upward pressure on the market. This past week, that fiscal pressure vented and pushed the market higher to where it belongs. However, the rally will not be linear. Besides the Geopolitical dangers, there is potential weakens around the mid-August interest payments and the end/start of the fiscal-year (Oct. 1st).

The VIX and the Sine Wave Patterns

Ang Traders — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 14:42:22 GMT

The VIX and SPX maintain a strong inverse correlation, with VIX declines typically preceding SPX advances.
Current VIX patterns, modeled as superimposed sine waves, indicate an amplified SPX pullback is likely in October.
I plan to reduce long equity exposure as the predicted VIX trough approaches, anticipating heightened downside risk.
Constructive interference of VIX’s minor and major wave troughs signals a tactical shift in portfolio positioning.

Weekly Summary Analysis

Ang Traders — Sun, 02 Aug 2026 19:44:15 GMT

The net-transfer in the first 209-days of fiscal-2026 is $27B(+2.1%) more than last year. This is the fifth week in a row that the net-transfer is higher year-over-year!
Nominal-spending is +$407B higher than last year.
The change in bank credit is +220B higher than last year.
The Fed’s IOR (interest on reserves) has paid -$49B less than last year.
Net money-creation is +$198B more than last year at this point; extrapolating this rate means there would be +$239B more money-created in fiscal-2026 than in fiscal-2025.

Geopolitics is "tamping down" the stock market.

Ang Traders — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 20:51:32 GMT

Jim Stewartson (Mind War on Substack) has written a piece that explains the Geopolitical mess that is holding the market back even though the fund-flows are bullish.

The world has never been in more danger—not because Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Elon Musk are succeeding but because they are failing.
Musk is losing his money—and his connection to reality.
Putin is losing to Ukraine—and the loyalty of his people.
Trump is losing to Iran—and at everything else.
Each of these men is very different with radically divergent beliefs but they share a rare trait—a constellation of psychopathologies referred to by many psychologists and psychiatrists as malignant narcissism. This is not a quirk of personality; it defines them. As Erich Fromm, who initially coined the term, described it, malignant narcissism is a combination of narcissism, psychopathy, sadism, and paranoia.

MindWar: The Psychological War on Democracy

Dead-Enders

Three Malignant Narcissists…

a month ago · 312 likes · 39 comments · Jim Stewartson

The end of the current real estate and stock market 18-20 year bull-cycle is coming, but the timing of its arrival is “fuzzy”. We know the end is caused by too much bank credit at too high interest rates, but Geopolitics play a role. Wars cause bullish fund-flows, but can also cause shortages, especially of oil, which in turn cause inflation and push the Fed to increase interest rates which eventually make private debt unserviceable and forces assets to be sold.

A Checkup on the Screws Holding the Economy Together

Ang Traders — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:43:57 GMT

Economic indicators show 75% of ‘screws’ are tight, up from 60% in December, signaling improved economic resilience.
Fiscal 2026 deficit and net money-creation are rising year-over-year, supporting continued economic and stock market expansion.
Key risks remain: loosening in capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, and truck transport employment warrant close monitoring.
A recession or bear market in the next 6-12 months appears unlikely unless deficit and net money-creation slow materially.

Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images

By checking a number of key economic indicators, we assess the chances of a recession and bear market in the next 6-12 months.

In our Dec., 2025 article (here) when we last checked on the economic screws, we stated…

...60% of the economic screws are tight, and as long as the BBB’s tax-cuts take effect in January, many of the loose screws will tighten — starting with net money-creation — making a recession in the next 6-12 months unlikely. However, if the deficit and net money-creation continue to slow, then the economy and the stock market will stall and recession and a bear market become more likely.

In this article we again check on the current state of the “screws” that hold the economy together.

The Screws Holding the Economy Together

The first chart below is the BaR grid (from econ p.i.) dated Dec. 19, 2025 when we last updated the screws, and the second chart is the most recent dated July 17, 2026.

econpi.com

The Geopolitical "Jiggle".

Ang Traders — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 22:51:17 GMT

usetrick/iStock via Getty Images

Even though the fund-flows and seasonality continue to be bullish, sentiment and technical measures are going contrary to the money-flows and seasonality; the bullish seasonality of July has not materialized at this point.

The AAII bullish sentiment has climbed to 45% which is 8% above the average. Since AAII is a contrarian indicator, the above-average bullishness implies temporary weakness is likely in the market; the majority of the herd is wrong the majority of the time.

The technical picture is showing doubt in the market despite the bullish fund-flows. The SPX price closed at the 7400 support level that corresponds to the upper wedge-line and the June gaps. It might bounce off this resistance level, but it could drop lower to the next support level ~7300.

The June tax drain caused the SPX to stall (pink-ovals, below), but the drain has been completely redeposited and the the net-transfer is higher than last year. The SPX can now make new highs--Geopolitics notwithstanding.

The heated Geopolitical situation is “jiggling” the market in the short term, but the bullish fund-flows will eventually drive the market higher.

Update: Technical

Ang Traders — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:02:25 GMT

Technically, the daily SPX has overhead resistance at the all time high ~7650. The MACD and ADI have made bull crossovers (green ovals) and the RSI is trying to break above the 60-level. It won’t be a linear track higher, but the trend is higher for the next few weeks.

Setup For a Summer Rally

Ang Traders — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:24:54 GMT

The June tax-take removed $140B from the private sector, and the SPX stalled as expected (pink-ovals, below). The tax drain from private bank accounts has been completely redeposited plus an extra $130B. The net-transfer is higher than last year and the SPX can now make new highs.

Only Five Times in The Last 30-Years

Ang Traders — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 19:14:50 GMT

Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images

A Rare Crossover Signal

The 50-week MA of the put:call ratio has crossed under the 200-week MA only five times in the last 30-years (black-ovals, below), and each time it has the SPX has entered a multi-year bull market (black-arrows). There is a 4-5 year period between crossovers which has a “fractal” stair-like pattern of rallies punctuated by pullbacks/range-trading periods (blue-boxes, bottom panel below). This pattern predicts a major pullback in 2027, a recovery in 2028 followed by another crossover in 2029.

June fund-Flows

Ang Traders — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:09:58 GMT

Net money-creation in June 2026 surged to $174B, sharply above June 2025’s $9B, signaling robust liquidity.
Nominal spending increased 40% year-over-year, supporting improved fund-flows and a constructive outlook for equities.
Historical patterns show SPX tends to rise in July as net-transfers rebound post-tax season, with bullish liquidity and sentiment models.
The liquidity ROC model is rising, but SPX may see a short-term pullback before reaching new highs.

MoMo Productions/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Back-Filling the Tax Hole Before We See New Highs

Ang Traders — Sun, 28 Jun 2026 18:41:13 GMT

The June tax-take removed $140B from the private sector, and the SPX has stalled as expected (pink-ovals, below). This drain of private bank accounts needs to be redeposited before the SPX can make new highs. As of June 25, only $53B has been redeposited into the private sector, but the start-of-the-month payments next week (June 30, July 1) should redeposit the tax-take and support the SPX.

Tax-Take Needs to Be Replenished Before We Get New Highs

Ang Traders — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 13:55:00 GMT

The SPX has gapped down to its 50-day MA support near 7350, with next support at 7300 and resistance at 7500.
New highs for SPX are unlikely until the $110B tax-take is redeposited into the private sector in the coming weeks.
The repo model has confirmed its #35 low, but SPX has not yet mirrored this confirmation.
Short-term lows appear close, but expect v…

Entering the Most Lucrative (and Ludicrous) Phase of the Bull Market.

Ang Traders — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 20:28:58 GMT

The current bull market is entering its most lucrative and speculative phase, driven by FOMO and exponential price growth.
Historical parallels to the late-1990s dotcom era suggest volatility and further upside before a recession risk emerges post-2027.

We Are/DigitalVision via Getty Images

The successful SpaceX IPO marks the “start-to-the-beginning-of-the-end”, not the end itself. We are entering the most lucrative (and ludicrous) phase of the bull market where fear-of-losing morphs into fear-of-missing-out, along with the mass delusion that “it’s different this time”. This is the phase where the herd is blinded by greed and gullibility and stock prices grow exponentially.

Tax-Drain

Ang Traders — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 12:59:12 GMT

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) experienced a significant net drain of $87B from private bank accounts due to the June 15/26 tax-take.

The Start to the beginning of the End

Ang Traders — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 19:37:32 GMT

I stand by what I wrote earlier in the week:

SpaceX will probably go up because people are really greedy and gullible, but what Elon is doing is the same thing the mortgage industry did before 2008: combined a bunch of losers (Xai, Twitter, later on Tesla), sprinkle some profits on top (StarLink), promise comic book science fiction (data centres in space…it used to be living underground on Mars), and then securitize the package as if it was a AAA investment. It will likely go up because they have changed the rules to force index funds to buy it on day one, but it is priced at 100x earnings. Snake oil.

Update

Ang Traders — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 22:25:35 GMT

The daily SPX has bounced off the first support. There is resistance at ~7500 that is likely to send the index back down. I expect side-ways pricing for the next week.

The HY-spread has made a minor peak (low for the SPX) and is dropping (SPX rallies). There is support at the 2.7 level which will pull the SPX back (red-arrows).