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31 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remains low, though growing evidence appears to indicate that substantial oil volumes are moving through the U.S.-backed and protected Omani route. Iran retains its ability to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies in order to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy is increasingly centered on economic coercion, but it remains unclear whether the principal line of effort—enhanced U.S. sanctions—will enable any of Washington’s war aims.

Supporting Assessment: The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since late July after U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers that Washington claimed were preparing to disperse sea mines into the SoH, possibly indicating that Tehran is attempting to preserve its ability to disrupt maritime access despite recent U.S. mine-clearing operations. Available reporting continues to provide conflicting indications about overall vessel traffic through the SoH and the volume of shipping using the U.S.-backed Omani route under U.S. protection, though overall shipping levels remain well below pre-war levels. Meanwhile, recent reporting indicates that senior U.S. military commanders are increasingly concerned that sustaining operations against Iran is depleting critical munitions and could undermine U.S. readiness for contingencies in other theaters.

Key Reporting:

• In the first kinetic attacks since late July, U.S. forces attack two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island that were reportedly attempting to disperse sea mines into the SoH. In response, Iran attacks Jordan with missiles and the U.A.E. with a drone.

• President Trump says Iran is “dead” and calls for Iranian leaders to be tried for “war crimes against humanity.” He also promises to respond to recent Iranian attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan.

• Iran’s IRGC claims that a supertanker “caught fire and was completely stopped after being hit by two sea mines.” CENTCOM denies the IRGC claim:

  

• Iran launched eight missiles at Jordan. ABC News reports that Jordanian security sources said that some of the missiles were not intercepted but no injuries were reported.

• The U.A.E.’s airforce says it responded to a drone over its territorial waters, but also denied Iran’s claims that Al Menhad airbase had been targeted with missiles.

• Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to hold bilateral talks with Vladimir Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

• AP reports that three U.S. Precision Strike Missiles which detonated over a sports complex and two residential areas in Lamerd, Iran in the first day of the war killed at least 21 civilians, including seven children.

• China’s biggest airlines post heavy losses due to the Iran War fuel shock.

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30 August:

• President Trump post an AI generated image of a purported attack in Kharg Island and writes “Kharg Island being blown to smithereens!!!”

• The Washington Post reports that top U.S. military commanders, specifically commanders of U.S. Central Command, the U.S. Pacific Command, Southern Command and the Navy’s top admiral advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the U.S. homeland.

• Al Jazeera reports that according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a US-registered independent conflict monitor, Iran and Iran-backed groups carried out at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure across the six GCC countries since the start of the Iran War.

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29 August:

• A tanker is hit by a projectile in the SoH, according to UKMTO:

• The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. officials are deeply concerned that the drain on American munitions due to the war on Iran has diminished America’s ability to defend against potential threats from China and Russia.

• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says that Iranian imports and exports have fallen between 25% and 35%.

• BBC reports that with at least 13 ships attacked since the start of the year, Somali piracy is surging because pirates assume that international security forces are preoccupied with the Iran War.

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28 August:

• The Wall Street Journal reports that there is little sign in the U.A.E. that U.S. sanctions are affecting financial ties with Iran, with Bank Melli and other Iranian banks remaining open and Iranian airlines running regular direct flights between Iran and the U.A.E.

• Six months into the war Reuters reports that Iranian officials say that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains in control, ruling in hiding as he recovers from disfiguring wounds while delegating daily authority to a coterie of top figures.

• Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issues a series of statements on X, declaring that any action harming “social cohesion” is forbidden and calls for greater economic self-reliance.

• The U.S. Treasury Department proposes revoking Banque Misr UAE’s correspondent banking access to U.S. financial institutions.

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27 August:

• Pakistan says it will not comply with Washington’s sanctions against Iran, arguing that the unilateral measures have no basis in international law.

• Qatar’s prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani is in Tehran for talks with Iranian officials on de-escalation.

• A U.S. government source tells Al Jazeera that any agreement between Iran and Oman are of no interest to the U.S.

• CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper says that the U.S. has cleared the SoH of mines.

• NBC News reports that CIA Director John Ratcliff asked Russia’s spy chief not to share intelligence with Iran that could be used against the U.S.

• Transits through the SoH rose more than 30 percent from the week prior, with the increase mostly led by tankers and gas carriers, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, with 114 transits between Aug. 17 and Sunday compared to Aug. 10-16. The numbers are likely to fluctuate as more dark transits are confirmed.

• Scott Bessent says that the U.S. guided 130 million barrels of oil out of the Strait over the past 14 days.

• Iran’s oil exports are down 80 percent year-over-year, according to Kpler.

• Iran’s Vice President Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah states that Iran is unable to import enough petrol because of the U.S. blockade.

• Yemen’s navy says it seized a vessel carrying equipment used to make drones off the coast of al-Makha in the Red Sea. Yemen’s naval forces claimed that the equipment was being smuggled into Yemen by the IRGC.

• Two drones target facilities belonging to Iranian Kurdish opposition parties in Iraq’s Erbil governorate.

• The Washington Post reports that U.S. intelligence assesses that the Kremlin sees the U.S. as weakened by the Iran War.

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26 August:

• Trump says he is “not in a hurry” to resume talks with Iran, arguing that economic and military action are both effective.

• Iran’s deputy foreign minister says that the reopening of the SoH depends on U.S. ending the war.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Omani counterpart Badr Albusaidi discussed an “interim framework” aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a joint statement carried by the Oman News Agency. Iran and Oman will hold further talks to “negotiate a new permanent route within 30 to 60 days” for shipping through the vital waterway, according to Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

• Iran’s top negotiator and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf thanks China for rejecting the new U.S. sanctions:

• An Iranian army spokesman warns “A possible future war” with the US could spread across the region and bring energy and communications infrastructure into the conflict.

• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister tells Iranian state TV that under the new Iranian-Omani agreement, military vessels will not be allowed to transit the SoH.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran’s complex system of oil sales and clandestine shadow banking may help it blunt enhanced U.S. sanctions.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that panic buying and small demonstrations by labor unions signal mounting economic pressure in Iran.

• Reuters reports that the U.S. secret service is aware of a video broadcast by Iranian state television discussing a plot to kill Barron Trump.

  25 August

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remains low, though growing evidence appears to indicate that substantial oil volumes are moving through the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran retains its ability to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies in order to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy is increasingly centered on economic coercion, but it remains unclear whether the principal line of effort—enhanced U.S. sanctions—will enable any of Washington’s war aims.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, though Iran likely recently targeted an oil tanker following a several-day pause in shipping attacks. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about overall vessel traffic through the SoH and the volume of shipping using the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number of vessels are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled. Recent reporting, however, claimed that the U.S. Navy was escorting 15-20 tankers through the Omani route nightly. Recent talks between Tehran and Pakistan reportedly centered in part on reviving the failed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and were described by interlocutors as “positive,” possibly indicating renewed diplomatic momentum among the major players.

Reporting:

• The U.S. denies that it is engaging in any talks with Iran.

• President Trump says that the U.S. Navy informed him that all mines in the SoH have been cleared.

• CIA Director John Ratcliff flys to Moscow to warn Russia against escalating conflict with NATO, especially the Baltic states and to press Moscow to reduce its support for Iran.

• Axios reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio tells several foreign counterparts that “for the time being” the U.S. is not expected to initiate new strikes against Iran, according to a U.S. official and a second source with knowledge of the matter.

• UKMTO reports that a vessel was struck off the coast of Oman.

  

• IRGC spokesperson Sardar Mohebi says that the U.S. resorting to economic warfare against Iran is itself proof of U.S. defeat on the battlefield.

• Iran and Oman’s foreign ministers meet in Tehran for talks on the SoH.

• The NYTs reports that the U.S. is preparing to return its diplomats to postings in the Middle East that were evacuated or had staff reductions during the war, to include Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, and Kuwait.

• TankerTrackers.com provides additional evidence of increased ship-to-ship transfers taking place in the Gulf of Oman.

  

• Brent crude is down on news of enhanced U.S. sanctions against Iran:

24 August:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launches a new sanctions campaign called “Operation Economic Outcast” aimed at further isolating the Iranian economy. He says that the U.S. is sanctioning more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels that enable the regime to procure nuclear material, missile technology and carry out cyber attacks. Bessent did not outline any specific steps the U.S. would take against individual countries, most notably China, that buy Iran’s oil, hinting that timelines for countries to comply would be managed on a case-by-case basis.

• Bessent also says that the U.S. will pressure foreign countries to shutter foreign branches of Bank Melli, Iran’s largest state-owned bank.

• Following Bessent’s press conference the Treasury Department announces that secondary sanctions would be applied to countries and entities doing business with Iran in five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping.

Note: According to Axios, “The U.S. already has powerful secondary sanctions on the books but has enforced them only selectively.”

• President Trump says that Iran is “completely collapsing!!!”

• China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman stated that China would oppose unilateral sanctions and signaled that it would not back away from its cooperation with Iran saying, “China’s cooperation with Iran has always been conducted within the international framework and should not be interfered with or undermined…China is closely monitoring relevant developments and will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its own interests.”

Note: China purchases roughly 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil. U.S. sanctions, to date, have concentrated on relatively small-scale “shadow networks” of independent Chinese refiners and intermediaries rather than major Chinese banks or state-owned companies. In May, for example, the U.S. threatened sanctions against Chinese refiners and the banks that financed them. In response, the Chinese commerce department publicly directed Chinese firms to ignore the U.S. threats, but, reportedly, in private told Chinese bank regulators to stop issuing loans to Chinese banks linked to trade with Iran. However, some analysts currently assess that additional sanctions on mainstream Chinese banks would be a red line for Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to attend a summit with Trump in Washington on 24 September.

• The U.S. imposes sanctions on Wellbred Capital, a Singapore-based commodities trader accused of having links to Tehran.

• Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei warns Iran’s neighbors against joining the new U.S. sanctions, saying that support for U.S. sanctions by any nation will be treated as an act of war.

• UKMTO reports that a tanker was hit by a projectile nine nautical miles off the coast of Ash Shishah, Oman:

• Al Jazeera reports that Iran’s top trade partners in 2024 were China, Iraq, the U.A.E, Turkiye and Afghanistan:

• Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir meets with top Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and secretary of Supreme National Security Council General Mohsen Rezaei. President Trump reportedly asked Munir, in a phone call a few days prior, to use his influence to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi said the talks were “very positive and productive.”

• Naqvi later tweets that the talks covered the possible resumption of the MoU:

• The U.S. State Department offers a $10 million reward for information on key IRGC officials.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that when Trump was weighing the prospect of war with Iran the U.S. intelligence community warned that a conflict would likely usher in a more hardline regime and that Tehran would likely attack U.S. Gulf allies and close the SoH, destabilizing global energy markets. Trump, however, was swayed by Pentagon briefings on plans to strike Iranian targets and Pete Hegseth and Dan Caine’s assurances that the military could handle any complications.

23 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remains low, though growing evidence appears to indicate that substantial oil volumes are moving through the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran retains its ability to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies in order to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force. Economic conditions in Iran continue to deteriorate as a result of the U.S. blockade and sanctions.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, with no reported Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the SoH in the past five days. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about the number of vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled, though recent U.S. statements provide additional evidence that substantial oil volumes are moving through the corridor. Despite continued hardliner dominance in Iran, several prominent Iranian political figures have publicly advocated ending the war or emphasized the rising costs of continuing it, potentially indicating increased pressure within the political establishment to identify an eventual off-ramp. Meanwhile, Houthi pressure on Saudi shipping in and around the Bab el-Mandeb is increasingly affecting regional energy flows, with Riyadh adopting alternative shipping and pipeline arrangements to mitigate the disruption.

Reporting:

• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in a speech published by Iranian state-run IRNA says that members of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council believed that the now-expired MoU represented the best possible agreement, saying, “There is not a single provision in this agreement that amounts to capitulation.”

• Mohsen Rezaei, the newly appointed leader of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that Iran would target oil-shipping routes and other “interests” of Gulf countries if they participate in U.S. sanctions on Iran. He also says, “So far we have only targeted military bases, but if they want to impose economic sanctions on us, the U.S. has oil and economic companies around Iran and elsewhere, and we will strike them.”

• The Telegraph reports that Iranian hackers shut down a British power plant for four days in an unprecedented cyberattack in July.

• Iranian media reports that Pakistan’s army chief will travel to Tehran on Monday for talks with Iranian officials.

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22 August:

• Following a meeting in Iraq between Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his Iraqi counterpart, Haibat al-Halbousi, Iran grants permission for an unspecified number of Iraqi oil tankers to move through the Strait.

• Russia’s state-owned corporation for atomic energy Rosatom says that 42 of its workers have returned to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant and that if all goes well it plans to have 100 of its workers operating there next fall.

• Recovery of production capacity at the Phase 14 refinery in Iran’s South Pars gas-field is 70 percent complete and is expected to be finished by next spring, according to the CEO of Pars Oil and Gas Company, who also stated that a full rebuild of the entire war-damaged facility would take two years.

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21 August:

• Trump says he views the Strait of Hormuz as “American territory.”

• U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the U.S. military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and other products through the Strait on 18 August and that an average of eight million barrels is now passing through the waterway each day.

• Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in separate comments, say that Iran needs to focus on ending the war and shoring up its crippled economy. Pezeshkian said, “The war must come to an end at some point…It is better that we demonstrate our strength and dignity today and tell the world that we have won and that we are ending the war.” For his part, Galibaf stated: “No matter how much military power we have, if our people are struggling and the country lacks financial circulation and economic growth, we will not achieve progress…As someone who has experienced war, we understand the true value of peace.”

• UKMTO assesses that the southern Omani route through the SoH remains the most high risk corridor, accounting for 16 of the 18 projectile strikes since 6 July.

• Lloyd’s List assesses that traffic at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port has fallen by more than a third since the Houthi blockade against Saudi shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia is coping with the situation by using shuttle tankers, Egypt’s Sumed pipeline and the Sidi Kerir port on Egypt’s Mediterranean Sea coast.

• Reuters reports that offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have declined and prices have jumped as the U.S. blockade had cut Tehran’s shipments, according to trade sources.

• The U.S. national average gas price on Friday was $4.11 per gallon, up $0.97 from this time last year.

20 August:

• Al Jazeera, citing data from Kpler, reports that oil flows through the SoH nearly tripled while the MoU was in effect, equaling about 6.1 million barrels per day.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states that that the U.S. will enact the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, saying, “It is a one-two punch. We have the blockade [on Iran], and we are going to have the toughest sanctions in history…It is going to work in Iran, and we are going to collapse this regime.”

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismisses Trumps “economic D-Day” sanctions as a diversion from America’s “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs.”

• The Houthis claimed that they carried out two drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, one a “sensitive target” at Najran airport, the other an Aramco facility at Najran. Though the Saudi government did not confirm the attacks, local sources reported that the main radar at Najran Airport was struck, leading to a temporary suspension of operations.

• Six armed pirates boarded the oil products tanker MT Sibu, roughly 136 nautical miles east of al-Mukalla, Yemen, in the Gulf of Aden, and diverted its course toward Somalia. The vessel carried 20 crew members, including 16 Indian nationals. This came on the heels of another piracy event when on 17 August the Cameroon-flagged M/V Lutuf was seized off the coast of Puntland, Somalia.

• Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan invite Iran to join the Mecca Agreement for Mutual Defense, according to The Jerusalem Post.

19 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, while conflicting reporting suggests a possible increase in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran continues to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies as it seeks to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force, but continued Iranian attacks against commercial shipping could trigger a U.S. military response.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, as the U.S. has not responded militarily to repeated Iranian attacks against commercial shipping in the SoH. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about the extent to which vessels are shifting to the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number of vessels are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled. If use of the Omani route is increasing, Iran could intensify attacks against vessels using it in an effort to preserve its control over maritime access, increasing the risk of another U.S.-Iranian escalatory cycle. Recent reporting also indicates that Iranian hardliners continue to consider broader escalation options in the event of additional U.S. strikes, including attacks against U.S. military assets in Europe or subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH. Meanwhile, recent Houthi attacks around the Bab el-Mandeb, including the reported disruption of operations at the port of Mokha, increase the risk that pressure on regional maritime access could expand beyond the SoH.

Reporting:

• Trump announces an unprecedented “crushing economic operation” or “economic D-Day” against Iran, threatening to target any country that provides a “lifeline to Iran”.

• Axios reports that the U.S. military is escorting 15-20 tankers nightly through a southern route along the coast of Oman, allowing about 10 million barrels per day–about half the pre-war volume–to move through the Strait. The article claims that the operation was made possible by a two week U.S. campaign to degrade Iran’s radar and surveillance systems, degrading Iran’s ability to target traffic in the Strait.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that severing economic ties between Dubai and Tehran will be difficult since much of the economic activity between the two countries have traditionally taken place on a black market.

• CNBC reports that, with U.S. naval assets focused on Iran, piracy in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is a growing concern, with Houthi-Somali Al-Shabaab links deepening.

• CNN reports that 80 percent of traffic through the SoH in the past two weeks passed through the U.S.-backed Omani-designated route, leading the network to conclude that Iran has lost significant control of the SoH. Merchant vessels reportedly are relying on safety assurances and escorts coordinated by U.S. forces patrolling the waterway.

• Offering a different assessment, The Wall Street Journal reports that only two of the 255 ship crossings through the SoH in August have openly used the Omani route, with an undisclosed number of vessels using the route with their transponders turned off.

• The same article notes that in July the U.A.E. actually increased its oil production and was chartering ships to make “shuttle-runs” to transfer oil to vessels waiting just outside the Strait. In contrast, Iraqi, Kuwaiti and Saudi production during the same time was down at least 20 percent.

Note: It is possible the number of smaller, shuttle-run ships transiting the SoH dark accounts for the uptick in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route.

• Citing two people close to the Iranian government, the Financial Times reports that Iran has considered striking US military assets in Europe if the U.S. further escalates the war. According to the report, Iranian forces had assessed potential strikes on US assets in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refueling aircraft. Cyprus, where a British air base was hit by a drone in March, was also cited as a potential target. Iranian forces have separately examined the possibility of targeting subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH in the event of further escalation, the report said.

• The U.A.E. announces that it is imposing an indefinite trade embargo against Iran. The U.A.E. was the largest seller of imported goods to Iran prior to the war, with one-third of Iran’s imports coming from the Emirate.

• Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that the U.S. is seeking an “honorable exit” from the Middle East and touts the “new regional order.”

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with U.A.E. National Security Advisor Shaykh Tahoon bid Zayed al Nahyan about regional security issues.

• Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami criticizes those in Iran who believe “life and survival lie in war.”

Note: Khatami is a moderate, and his willingness to speak publicly suggests that opposition to the recent hardliner ascent persists within Iran, though it is likely constrained by the war and the threat of regime repression.

• Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, warns Gulf states assisting the U.S. military, saying, nothing is “hidden from our eyes.”

• The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon is weighing a smaller U.S. military presence in the Gulf once the war with Iran ends.

• The U.S. Department of Justice says that 17 Iranian members of the Iran-based Mabna Institute were charged with an alleged cyber-campaign targeting hundreds of universities, companies and government agencies in the U.S.

• Iran claims that it received $7.5 billion in oil-related foreign currency revenue in the first four months of the year.

• Oil prices rise for the fourth day in a row:

18 August:

• President Trump says that no conversations are taking place or scheduled with Iran. He also claims that the SoH is open and post a map showing it as a “ New U.S. Territory”.

• The U.A.E.’s Defense Minister says that Iran launched two ballistic missiles aimed at maritime traffic in the SoH.

• Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator says that the SoH will remain closed until the U.S. meets the conditions of the interim deal with Iran, including lifting the naval blockade and sanctions and the release of Iran’s frozen assets.

• The WSJ reports that recent Houthi attacks against the port of Mokha, a key logistical hub for civilian shipping and anti-Houthi forces operating along the Bab el-Mandeb coast, have shut the port down.

• Israel conducts airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase after Israeli intelligence concludes that Turkiye was planning activity there that could threaten Israeli security. The strike causes tensions between Israel and Turkey to spike.

• The Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) says that Iran’s annual inflation rate is at 66 percent.

• A vessel is struck while transiting the SoH.

• U.S. 30-year bond yields hit highest level since 2007 on worries related to the Iran War.

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17 August:

• The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) 60-day timeframe officially expires.

• Trump says that Iran should “put up the white flag of surrender” and threatens to bomb Oman. He also says that the U.S. was engaged in back-channel talks with Iran’s IRGC. The IRGC denied that it was engaging in talks with the U.S.

• Jared Kushner tells Fox News that Iran is “not showing any interest” in a deal that “makes sense” for the United States.

• Trump reiterates his position that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, stating on Truth Social, “The number one goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a nuclear weapon.”

• UKMTO reports that a vessel is struck in the Bab el-Mandeb:

• IRGC commander Brigadier General Yadollah Javani says that Iran will be shifting to a more offensive “maximum deterrence” policy.

• Iran targets the office of Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, in a drone attack.

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16 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, with most vessels opting to use the Iranian-designated lane. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten SoH shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued. Iranian and Omani officials say they have negotiated an agreement on a Strait of Hormuz transit regime, but Iranian messaging and behavior indicate that Tehran intends to preserve its de facto control over maritime access and use it as leverage against the United States and Israel. Notably, the U.S. has not conducted retaliatory strikes following three recent Iranian attacks against U.A.E.-affiliated tankers transiting the SoH, a departure from some earlier incidents in which Iranian attacks on commercial shipping prompted U.S. military retaliation. Repeated Houthi attacks against an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jizan region highlight the continued potential for the conflict to expand along the Red Sea axis.

Reporting:

• Trump instructs the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea, in part because of South Korea’s refusal to get involved in the Iran War.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that after the signing of the MoU in mid-June hard-line Iranian officials used the subsequent two months to prepare for the next stage of the conflict.

• Shipping through the SoH slowed to a standstill over the weekend with only five vessels transiting the SoH, according to Reuters.

• Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Iran “truly won” the war both politically and economically.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says talks with Oman on new routes in the SoH and the reopening of the Strait are “two separate things.”

• Civilian flights resume at the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas.

• Iran’s IRGC claims that 85 percent of Iran’s air defense production capability remained undamaged.

• Axios reports the Nechirvan Barzani, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, led back channel negotiations with the IRGC for the Trump administration in May.

15 August:

• Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route map for the SoH, and that the two sides are negotiating outstanding issues.

• USA Today reports that with midterms on the horizon, Trump is under increasing pressure from Republicans to find a way out of the Iran War.

• The Washington Post reports that Arab and Western officials say that the Gulf countries are “united in their aggravation with the administration” and that “Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory.”

• Iran accuses Qatar of holding three of its pilots whose aircraft were downed in March in detention.

• UKMTO says a tanker was struck off the coast of Oman:

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14 August:

• Trump says that he will declare the SoH a U.S. territory “pretty soon.”

• In response, Iran’s deputy foreign minister says the SoH “will remain Iranian” and the blockade will stay in place until the U.S. accepts defeat.

• A third ADNOC tanker in 48 hours is hit in the SoH.

• An Iranian super tanker is seen loading oil at Kharg Island for the first time since late July, according to Al Jazeera.

13 August:

• Vice president Vance says that Washington’s war aims are twofold: stabilizing American energy prices by ensuring oil can flow through Gulf countries again and to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatens to subject Iran to economic isolation “like the world has never seen before”. According to reports the U.S. Treasury is planning to roll out an aggressive “economic isolation” strategy targeting Iran next week, wielding naval blockades and fresh financial sanctions designed to completely paralyze Tehran’s revenue streams and force a capitulation.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says that the U.S. can maintain its blockade of Iran “indefinitely.”

• Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb, commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij Organization, says that the SoH is “under Iranian control” and that no ship can pass without Iran’s permission. A spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters says, “No commercial vessel or oil tanker can or will have safe passage through the Strait without the permission and supervision of Iran’s powerful Armed Forces.”

• Two Abu Dhabi ADNOC tankers come under attack while transiting the SoH. UKMTO reports two attacks in the vicinity.

• Traffic in the SoH continues to be low, according to MarineTraffic:

• Iran attacks Erbil Iraq with an undisclosed number of drones. Iraqi security officials say the drones were intercepted.

• The Houthis target an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jizan region with two drones. Note: the Houthis targeted the same area on 9 Aug, and, possibly, in late July.

• The Washington Post reports that the U.S. has lost roughly 25 percent of its Reaper drones as a result of the Iran war.

• The U.S. is planning to send the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for more than 250 days without a port call in 200, setting a record for consecutive days at sea.

• British maritime security company Ambrey says that it is engaged in salvaging the Caroline Bezengi, which ran aground off the Omani coast in June and has been leaking oil.

• Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says that Iraq will not allow its territory or airspace to be used to launch attacks against neighboring nations.

• Iran’s central bank governor says that Tehran will join the BRICS New Development Bank soon.

• The Turkish Defense Ministry say that Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye will deepen cooperation across defense industries under 7 August Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.

• German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, one of world’s top container shipping companies says that it has lost 600 million in the second quarter of this year because of the Iran War.

12 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, with most vessels opting to use the Iranian-designated lane. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten SoH shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion as its options for resolving the conflict through military force narrow. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued. Iranian and Omani officials say they are close to agreement on a temporary or “middle” shipping corridor, but Tehran continues to distinguish such an arrangement from fully reopening the Strait. Iran continues to make maximalist demands, including an end to the blockade, sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and compensation for wartime damage, while signaling that it intends to retain authority over commercial transit through the SoH. An 11 August Houthi attack on an Egyptian-owned vessel near the Bab el-Mandeb underscores the continuing risk to commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

• Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif claims that the U.S. and Iran are close to “some sort of an arrangement” and that “Things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or deal.”

• Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is in Tehran for discussions with Iranian officials on the SoH impasse.

• Iran’s new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, says that the SoH will remain closed until all of Iran’s conditions were met, including a complete end to the U.S. war and blockade, release of Iran’s frozen financial assets, and a regional ceasefire.

• Qatar says that negotiations between Oman and Iran over shipping lanes in the SoH are making significant progress.

• The number of vessels transiting the SoH falls to a one week-week low of eight, according to Reuters. MarineTraffic reports that most ships continue to use the Iranian-designated lane.

• The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil supply will fall by about 4 percent in the remainder of the current year. It also raised its estimate for the average Brent crude price for the third quarter of the year, from $81.91 to $86.81.

• The WSJ reports that Tehran is relying on a ‘survival economy’–rationing scarce goods, limiting access to currency, slashing investment and shifting more burdens onto households while preserving strategic imports and the essential machinery of the state–as a way of defying U.S. economic pressure.

• Yossi Cohen, who led Israel’s Mossad between 2015 and 2021, claimed that Israel’s spies visited Iran’s Fordo nuclear site “many times” in the past to understand the facility.

• Iran fires drones and missiles at Iranian Kurdish opposition camps in Erbil province, Iraq.

11 August:

• Trump says that the U.S. is in “total control” of the SoH.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that Iran “astonished the world”, in particular the U.S. and Israel, proving “that it is a tough and invincible power.”

• The Houthi’s attack an Egyptian-owned cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb killing six crew members.

• U.S. forces fire on and disable a Panama-flagged cargo ship attempting to break the blockade on Iran.

• NBC News reports that a recent U.S. military intelligence assessment concluded that Iran’s strategic priority has shifted from its nuclear program to the SoH, as Tehran now views the strait as a stronger and more effective source of leverage.

• The WSJ reports that Persian Gulf energy producers are concluding that Iran’s control over the SoH will become permanent, disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies indefinitely.

10 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes, reported munitions constraints, and increasing reliance on economic pressure and intermediated diplomacy signal narrowing strategic options. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, although Iran continues to selectively attack maritime traffic in the Strait, including the 8 August missile strike on an ADNOC vessel. Iranian and Omani officials say they are close to agreement on a temporary or “middle” shipping corridor, but Tehran continues to distinguish such an arrangement from fully reopening the Strait and is tying broader access to extensive U.S. concessions, including an end to the blockade, sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and compensation for wartime damage. Meanwhile, the 8 August Houthi drone attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Jizan and continuing threats of retaliation by Iraqi Shia militias highlight the persistent risk of regional escalation.

Key Reporting:

• Trump says the U.S. military has cleared the SoH of Iranian mines and that the U.S. has 100% control of the SoH. He also says he’ll demand compensation from Tehran for those killed or wounded in the war.

In a move that appears to indicate further entrenchment of hardliner power in Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei appoints six hardline commanders across the armed forces, the IRGC and Basij domestic security forces. The six include:

• Ali Abdollahi was named chief of staff of the armed forces, replacing Abdolrahim Mousavi. A senior IRGC commander, Abdollahi oversaw the General Staff during the war, and has been tasked with improving coordination across Iran’s military command.

• Kioumars Heydari, the former commander of the army’s ground forces, was appointed deputy chief of staff.

• Ahmad Vahidi was confirmed as commander-in-chief of the IRGC, succeeding Mohammad Pakpour. Khamenei instructed him to strengthen deterrence and readiness for “powerful offensive operations”, language analysts say reflects a more assertive military posture.

• Mostafa Izadi was appointed as Ahmad Vahidi’s deputy, with responsibility for organizational and operational readiness.

• Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, a key position given the continuing confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz.

• Hossein Taeb, a former IRGC intelligence chief, took over the Basij, with orders to strengthen popular mobilisation and domestic intelligence networks.

• Windward says Iran’s crude export pipeline on Kharg Island remains at a “complete halt” amid the US military’s blockade of Iranian ports.

• Windward reports “subdued” maritime traffic in the SoH over the past several days:

• The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says that the threat level in the SoH remains “severe”.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are invited by Pakistan to visit Islamabad for talks, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.

• Oman says an oil slick from the grounded tanker Caroline Bezengi—a Cameroon-flagged Suezmax crude tanker, widely described as part of Russia’s shadow fleet and sanctioned by the UK and EU—now covers about 390 square kilometers (150 sq miles).

9 August:

• Trump says that Washington is only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran and is waiting for economic pressure to mount. He also says: “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,”

• The WSJ reports that Trump was prepared to declare victory in the war and forgo a nuclear deal with Tehran if Tehran opened the SoH.

• Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly meets with supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Earlier, Pezeshkian called for an end to a period of “neither war nor peace.”

• Iranian state-controlled Mehr news agency releases an undated video of Mojtaba Khamenei.

• Mojtaba Khamemei appoints Mohsen Rezai, a hard-liner and former IRGC commander, as his representative to the Supreme National Security Council.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Arachchi says that talks with Oman to establish a new maritime route in the SoH have progressed well and are in their final stages but the SoH will not open until the U.S. meets Iran’s demands, to include the U.S. paying compensation to Iran for damages incurred during the war. He also says that Iran is currently holding no negotiations with the U.S. and is only exchanging messages through intermediaries.

• Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, listed Iran’s demands to the U.S. as: ending further U.S. threats against Iran; halting aggression toward Iran and its Lebanese, Palestinian, Yemeni, and Iraq allies; removing the U.S. naval blockade; lifting sanctions on Iran; and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

• The Houthis claim responsibility for a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oil facility in Jizan, saying that the attack was in retaliation to a Saudi drone attack on Yemen’s Saada and Hajjah provinces. Saudi officials say that firefighters “extinguished a fire that broke out at dawn” at the facility due to the attack.

• Al Jazeera posts the following timeline of Iranian-Omani talks:

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters on Saturday that the ongoing talks are about establishing a “temporary route” in the Strait of Hormuz and said, “We’re almost very close to the result.”

But he said that other conditions, including compensation from the US for war damages, must be met before the strait is reopened.

Iran’s National Security Council meanwhile laid out six conditions for Hormuz to reopen. They are: the US ending its threats to Iran; halting military action against Iran and its regional allies; withdrawing naval and air forces involved in blockading Iran; compensating Iran for damage caused in the conflict; lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

A spokesperson for the IRGC also said on Saturday that the reopening of Hormuz is conditional on the US “fully accepting Iran’s conditions and ceasing to interfere in the regional negotiations”.

For its part, Oman condemned continuing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, without assigning blame, and said negotiations with Iran on the waterway were “positive and constructive”.

Iranian media reported last week that the talks were aimed at establishing a “middle corridor” through the strait, distinct from both the northern route established by Iran and the southern corridor favoured by the US. The Foreign Ministry said the geographical coordinates of the new route have been finalised.

• TankerTrackers.com reports that a fleet of at least 56 tankers is conducting “covert ship-to-ship transfers” to move oil from Gulf countries through the SoH.

• CENTCOM says 55 commercial vessels have been rerouted as a result of its blockade on Iran.

• Iraq’s Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Shia militia says it will retaliate for joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces last month.

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8 August:

• Iran says a ‘general framework’ is reached with Oman on managing maritime traffic in the Strait.

• CNN reports that US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Cain has been privately looking for an off-ramp to the Iran War, making it clear to Trump administration advisors that available military options may not be enough to achieve Trump’s war objectives.

• U.S. vice president Vance says that the U.S. has “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear program and degraded its military.

• Iran targets a vessel belonging to Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) as it was crossing the SoH. ADNOC later says that the ship was targeted by an Iranian missile and there were no casualties.

• Iran’s IRGC says that the opening of the Strait is conditional on the U.S. “fully accepting Iran’s conditions” not on any deal with Oman.

• Iraq’s oil minister says that Iraq’s oil exports are down 75% due to the closure of the SoH.

7 August:

• Al Jazeera reports that several Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking vessels to enter the Strait and load crude at Iraq’s Basrah Oil Terminal because Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO was offering discounts at close to $30 a barrel.

• Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a trilateral defense agreement (the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) under which an attack on one is considered an attack on all.

• Citing data from Kpler, Reuters reports that shipping in the SoH is down sharply, falling to 33 vessels from 3-7 August, down from 50 the previous week.

• The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passes the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, designed to punish major buyers of Russian oil and gas. The bill also included a last-minute demand from President Trump to include additional sanctions on Iran’s weapons and energy sectors.

• Hadi al-Amiri, the head of Iraq’s Badr Organization, calls on Iraqi militias to postpone retaliation against Saudi Arabia for the “sake of Iraq’s highest interests.”

Note: On 29 July, in response to late July Iraqi Shia militia attacks against Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia launched joint strikes targeting Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in Iraq, killing more than 20 people. The strikes were in retaliation for likely Shia militia attacks on Saudi Arabia.

6 August:

Key Judgement: Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes are weakening U.S. coercive credibility and narrowing its strategic options, while Tehran is pressuring regional governments to oppose further escalation. Reported shortages of U.S. interceptors and precision-guided munitions appears to be affecting Washington’s operational tempo. Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, although Iran or Iran-aligned forces may have attacked two vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and another in the Gulf of Aden over the past several days. Meanwhile, discussions over maritime access are becoming increasingly detailed. Iranian officials claim that Tehran and Oman have agreed on the geographic coordinates of a proposed shipping route, while reporting indicates Iran is seeking transit fees and substantial administrative authority over vessels entering the Gulf.

Reporting:

• Bloomberg reports that, as part of the proposed Iran-Oman consortium agreement, Iran is seeking to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz while requiring “hostile countries” to pay compensation before being granted access.

• President Trump says he is “extremely happy” with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and that Iran is “going very well”.

• The Washington Post reports that Trump’s frustration boiled over at a recent Camp David meeting and he “demanded answers” from Hegseth over extreme missile shortages.

• Iran state broadcaster IRIB says that Iran’s parliament is reviewing an initial text of agreement that bans “vessels from hostile countries” from traveling through the SoH.

• Eight of the world’s largest shipping associations in a letter to the UN Secretary-General urge the United Nations to oppose tolls in the SoH.

• Windward reports that 12 vessels transited the SoH in the past 24 hours.

• The Houthis claim attacks on two Saudi oil tankers near Yanbu port in the Red Sea and in the Gulf of Aden (unconfirmed).

• Khori Hiwa (Sun of Hope), a newly formed armed group in western Iran says that its fighters clashed with Iranian government forces in West Azerbaijan province, and claim to have inflicted casualties.

• Reuters reports that Iran made a concerted diplomatic push to warn Gulf states that Tehran would hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convinced Trump to end U.S. strikes on Iran and seek a diplomatic solution. The message was delivered after Trump, on 28 July, threatened to strike Iran’s energy network and infrastructure.

• CBS reports that at least 12 states in the U.S. report cyberattacks on water systems possibly linked to Iran-backed hackers.

• The Independent reports that Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian stated in an interview on state television that interaction with Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was “very difficult”.

• Al Jazeera reports that Iranian security forces and religious morality police have intensified restrictions, arrests, and punishments for people and businesses deemed noncompliant with a wide range of regulations on practices deemed by the state as immoral and un-Islamic.

• The Independent reports that disruption of supplies through the SoH are leaving millions vulnerable to hunger in Yemen.

• Iran says 21 Mossad ‘mercenaries’ were arrested for spying on the Iranian military.

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5 August:

• Trump says there was “all-day negotiation” with Iran the day before, characterizing the talks as positive while threatening to hit Iran “really hard” if a deal is not reached.

• Trump denies media reports of depleted weapons stockpiles saying the U.S. has massive amounts of munitions and that the “leakers” behind the “treasonous statements” are being hunted down.

• Qatar says mediators are making progress in efforts to end the war.

• Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman says that Oman and Iran are close to finalizing an agreement on an agreed upon shipping route for the SoH, saying “The geographic coordinates of the route envisioned by both sides have been agreed upon.”

• Reuters reports that the proposed Oman-Iran deal would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf through the SoH, and that, according to a senior Iranian official, Iran is seeking transit fees between 5% and 7%.

• Media reports indicate that vessel transits in the SoH and Bab el-Mandeb continue to be low.

• UKMTO reports two possible shipping attacks, on off the coast of Oman, the other in the Gulf of Aden:

• Bloomberg reports that Iran-linked cyberattacks against US water infrastructure are expanding and ongoing, with security agencies warning that the digital operations are increasing and shifting from sporadic incidents to localized disruptions.

• Bloomberg reports that Iran is considering allowing European countries to carry out mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal is being discussed as a compromise to restore normal maritime traffic and restart peace talks between the US and Iran.

4 August:

• Trump calls Iranian leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” on social media and declared that it was Iran’s final opportunity to sign an agreement.

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that talks with Oman regarding safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz were progressing positively.

• Iranian media reported on August 4 that an “unknown projectile” hit a Greek-owned cargo ship, MINOAN PIONEER, off the Omani coast near the strait’s entrance.

• Reuters reports that the U.S. has used ‘virtually all’ of its long-range precision missiles during the Iran War.

• Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent says “We are in talks with the Iranians...There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict.” Oil prices drop and the stock market surged following his statement.

3 August:

Key Judgement: Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes are weakening U.S. coercive credibility and narrowing its strategic options, while Iran is actively mobilizing regional opposition to further escalation. Reported shortages of U.S. interceptors and precision-guided munitions may be influencing Washington’s operational tempo as the Trump administration continues to alternate between threatened escalation and renewed diplomacy. Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued following Washington’s decision to postpone threatened large-scale strikes against Iran. Commercial traffic through the SoH remains very low, while Tehran continues to signal that it intends to retain a central role in determining access through the waterway. Contrary to President Trump’s claim that new talks are imminent, Iranian officials deny that direct negotiations with Washington are underway and are instead emphasizing Omani-mediated discussions. Iran’s simultaneous outreach to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey appears intended to mobilize regional pressure against renewed U.S. escalation, while reported Saudi concerns suggest that Washington’s regional partners may increasingly be constraining its military freedom of action.

Watching: Despite the lull in fighting, the situation remains volatile, and a sudden clash in the Strait could trigger another cycle of reciprocal regional escalation. Additional reporting on a possible U.S.-Qatari compromise under which vessels would enter the SoH through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters—particularly who would authorize, monitor, and enforce access. Signs that regional political pressure is increasingly constraining Washington’s military freedom of action. Further Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea that further disrupt global energy markets and maritime trade. Expanded involvement by external actors, particularly China or Ukraine, could widen the conflict even further.

• Amir al-Mousawi, a former Iranian diplomat in contact with current Iranian negotiators, tells the NYTs that Trump sent Iran a message vowing a severe attack on Iranian infrastructure if the Iranians did not restart negotiations. The Iranians refused, unless Washington returned to the previous MoU.

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says that there are currently no negotiations underway with the U.S. but that there has been progress in talks with Oman to secure a passage through the SoH.

• UKMTO reports that a vessel off the coast of Oman was hit by an unknown projectile.

• Maritime traffic in the SoH continues to be low:

• Al Jazeera publishes the following timeline on recent Iranian-Omani talks:

• The IRGC claims that is shot down an MQ-9 Reaper drone flying over the SoH.

• Reuters reports that six-Saudi flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden in recent days and headed to southern Africa, as a result of the Houthi threat to target Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.

• Iran executes two alleged Israeli spies.

• Windward says that 22 Chinese-linked vessels have transited the Bab el-Mandeb since 20 July.

• The seven members of OPEC+ decide to increase oil production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day.

• Reuters reports that manufacturing activity in China slowed in July as the war in the Middle East weakened demand and raised costs.

• Brent crude down on news of possible renewed U.S.-Iranian negotiations:

2 August:

• Trump once again calls off major attacks on Iran, saying in a Truth Social posting: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off on any attack.” He also claims that a deal on the SoH is “imminent” and new talks with Iran will begin on Monday.”

• The Saudi Press Agency reports that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump discussed developments in the region and their regional and international repercussions. MBS reportedly raised concerns about Trump’s plans to escalate strikes on Iran.

• Israeli media (N12) reports that Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi agreed to a US- and Qatari-formulated proposal in which vessels would enter the Persian Gulf through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters.

• Iraqi media says a drone attack targeted the Peshmerga’s 70th Brigade HQS in Sulaimaniyah, Iraq.

1 August:

• President Trump threatens to launch a new attack on Iran, but U.S. officials say that he could halt the attacks if there is progress on the diplomatic front.

• Axios reports that Trump is seriously considering hitting Iranian energy targets in the next few days. The strikes could involve the Israeli military, which would likely lead to Iranian attacks on Israel.

• Multiple sources tell CBS News that the U.S. and Israel are planning a huge bombing campaign against energy infrastructure targets in Iran.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi holds separate phone calls with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. During the discussions Araghchi reportedly warned against any U.S. military action, reiterating that Iran was willing to respond decisively to any attack against its sovereignty or national security.

• Iranian Major General Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s top joint military command, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, says that countries in the region should reconsider their alignment with the U.S. and that any country serving as the U.S.’ “defensive shield” will be “consumed by the flames of war.”

• The Washington Post reports that Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the head of U.S. European Command sent written notification to senior Pentagon officials saying that without another Navy destroyer he will be forced to choose defense of the United States “homeland” over that of Israel. U.S. naval destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have been employed as part of Israel’s defense for many years, with European Command central to the mission.

• Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref says that Iran is preparing supplies for the next two years and that the government is planning for “even the worst conditions.”

• Kuwaiti officials say they intercepted Iranian drones that were targeting “vital installations.”

• UKMTO reports that a tanker located 21 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, reported an explosion and large splash close to the vessel:

• A Houthi spokesman claims that the Houthis have forced eight Saudi oil tankers to change course in the Red Sea.

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AVDD’s sole purpose is to fight for democracy and freedom, in America and throughout the world. But we need your support! If you enjoy AVDD’s content, please help us stay in the fight by subscribing to this Substack page, or consider a monetary donation. Thank you!!

Julia is an accomplished professional intelligence analyst, a trailblazer and a patriot, and her story is yet another example of how the Trump administration’s politically motivated purges of experienced national-security professionals have made our country less secure.

But, as I think you’ll see from our conversation, she’s got plenty of fight left in her! To be continued!!

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AVDD’s sole purpose is to fight for democracy and freedom, in America and throughout the world. But we need your support! If you enjoy AVDD’s content, please help us stay in the fight by subscribing to this Substack page, or consider a monetary donation. Thank you!!

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Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remains low, though growing evidence appears to indicate that substantial oil volumes are moving through the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran retains its ability to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies in order to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy is increasingly centered on economic coercion, but it remains unclear whether the principal line of effort—enhanced U.S. sanctions—will enable any of Washington’s war aims.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, though Iran likely recently targeted an oil tanker following a several-day pause in shipping attacks. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about overall vessel traffic through the SoH and the volume of shipping using the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number of vessels are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled. Recent reporting, however, claimed that the U.S. Navy was escorting 15-20 tankers through the Omani route nightly. Recent talks between Tehran and Pakistan reportedly centered in part on reviving the failed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and were described by interlocutors as “positive,” possibly indicating renewed diplomatic momentum among the major players.

Reporting:

25 August:

• The U.S. denies that it is engaging in any talks with Iran.

• President Trump says that the U.S. Navy informed him that all mines in the SoH have been cleared.

  

• IRGC spokesperson Sardar Mohebi says that the U.S. resorting to economic warfare against Iran is itself proof of U.S. defeat on the battlefield.

• Iran and Oman’s foreign ministers meet in Tehran for talks on the SoH.

• The NYTs reports that the U.S. is preparing to return its diplomats to postings in the Middle East that were evacuated or had staff reductions during the war, to include Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, and Kuwait.

• Brent crude is down on news of enhanced U.S. sanctions against Iran:

  

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24 August:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launches a new sanctions campaign called “Operation Economic Outcast” aimed at further isolating the Iranian economy. He says that the U.S. is sanctioning more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels that enable the regime to procure nuclear material, missile technology and carry out cyber attacks. Bessent did not outline any specific steps the U.S. would take against individual countries, most notably China, that buy Iran’s oil, hinting that timelines for countries to comply would be managed on a case-by-case basis.

• Bessent also says that the U.S. will pressure foreign countries to shutter foreign branches of Bank Melli, Iran’s largest state-owned bank.

• Following Bessent’s press conference the Treasury Department announces that secondary sanctions would be applied to countries and entities doing business with Iran in five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping.

Note: According to Axios, “The U.S. already has powerful secondary sanctions on the books but has enforced them only selectively.”

• President Trump says that Iran is “completely collapsing!!!”

• China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman stated that China would oppose unilateral sanctions and signaled that it would not back away from its cooperation with Iran saying, “China’s cooperation with Iran has always been conducted within the international framework and should not be interfered with or undermined…China is closely monitoring relevant developments and will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its own interests.”

Note: China purchases roughly 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil. U.S. sanctions, to date, have concentrated on relatively small-scale “shadow networks” of independent Chinese refiners and intermediaries rather than major Chinese banks or state-owned companies. In May, for example, the U.S. threatened sanctions against Chinese refiners and the banks that financed them. In response, the Chinese commerce department publicly directed Chinese firms to ignore the U.S. threats, but, reportedly, in private told Chinese bank regulators to stop issuing loans to Chinese banks linked to trade with Iran. However, some analysts currently assess that additional sanctions on mainstream Chinese banks would be a red line for Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to attend a summit with Trump in Washington on 24 September.

• The U.S. imposes sanctions on Wellbred Capital, a Singapore-based commodities trader accused of having links to Tehran.

• Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei warns Iran’s neighbors against joining the new U.S. sanctions, saying that support for U.S. sanctions by any nation will be treated as an act of war.

• UKMTO reports that a tanker was hit by a projectile nine nautical miles off the coast of Ash Shishah, Oman:

• Al Jazeera reports that Iran’s top trade partners in 2024 were China, Iraq, the U.A.E, Turkiye and Afghanistan:

• Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir meets with top Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and secretary of Supreme National Security Council General Mohsen Rezaei. President Trump reportedly asked Munir, in a phone call a few days prior, to use his influence to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi said the talks were “very positive and productive.”

• Naqvi later tweets that the talks covered the possible resumption of the MoU:

• The U.S. State Department offers a $10 million reward for information on key IRGC officials.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that when Trump was weighing the prospect of war with Iran the U.S. intelligence community warned that a conflict would likely usher in a more hardline regime and that Tehran would likely attack U.S. Gulf allies and close the SoH, destabilizing global energy markets. Trump, however, was swayed by Pentagon briefings on plans to strike Iranian targets and Pete Hegseth and Dan Caine’s assurances that the military could handle any complications.

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23 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remains low, though growing evidence appears to indicate that substantial oil volumes are moving through the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran retains its ability to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies in order to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force. Economic conditions in Iran continue to deteriorate as a result of the U.S. blockade and sanctions.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, with no reported Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the SoH in the past five days. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about the number of vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled, though recent U.S. statements provide additional evidence that substantial oil volumes are moving through the corridor. Despite continued hardliner dominance in Iran, several prominent Iranian political figures have publicly advocated ending the war or emphasized the rising costs of continuing it, potentially indicating increased pressure within the political establishment to identify an eventual off-ramp. Meanwhile, Houthi pressure on Saudi shipping in and around the Bab el-Mandeb is increasingly affecting regional energy flows, with Riyadh adopting alternative shipping and pipeline arrangements to mitigate the disruption.

Reporting:

• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in a speech published by Iranian state-run IRNA says that members of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council believed that the now-expired MoU represented the best possible agreement, saying, “There is not a single provision in this agreement that amounts to capitulation.”

• Mohsen Rezaei, the newly appointed leader of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that Iran would target oil-shipping routes and other “interests” of Gulf countries if they participate in U.S. sanctions on Iran. He also says, “So far we have only targeted military bases, but if they want to impose economic sanctions on us, the U.S. has oil and economic companies around Iran and elsewhere, and we will strike them.”

• The Telegraph reports that Iranian hackers shut down a British power plant for four days in an unprecedented cyberattack in July.

• Iranian media reports that Pakistan’s army chief will travel to Tehran on Monday for talks with Iranian officials.

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22 August:

• Following a meeting in Iraq between Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his Iraqi counterpart, Haibat al-Halbousi, Iran grants permission for an unspecified number of Iraqi oil tankers to move through the Strait.

• Russia’s state-owned corporation for atomic energy Rosatom says that 42 of its workers have returned to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant and that if all goes well it plans to have 100 of its workers operating there next fall.

• Recovery of production capacity at the Phase 14 refinery in Iran’s South Pars gas-field is 70 percent complete and is expected to be finished by next spring, according to the CEO of Pars Oil and Gas Company, who also stated that a full rebuild of the entire war-damaged facility would take two years.

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21 August:

• Trump says he views the Strait of Hormuz as “American territory.”

• U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the U.S. military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and other products through the Strait on 18 August and that an average of eight million barrels is now passing through the waterway each day.

• Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in separate comments, say that Iran needs to focus on ending the war and shoring up its crippled economy. Pezeshkian said, “The war must come to an end at some point…It is better that we demonstrate our strength and dignity today and tell the world that we have won and that we are ending the war.” For his part, Galibaf stated: “No matter how much military power we have, if our people are struggling and the country lacks financial circulation and economic growth, we will not achieve progress…As someone who has experienced war, we understand the true value of peace.”

• UKMTO assesses that the southern Omani route through the SoH remains the most high risk corridor, accounting for 16 of the 18 projectile strikes since 6 July.

• Lloyd’s List assesses that traffic at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port has fallen by more than a third since the Houthi blockade against Saudi shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia is coping with the situation by using shuttle tankers, Egypt’s Sumed pipeline and the Sidi Kerir port on Egypt’s Mediterranean Sea coast.

• Reuters reports that offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have declined and prices have jumped as the U.S. blockade had cut Tehran’s shipments, according to trade sources.

• The U.S. national average gas price on Friday was $4.11 per gallon, up $0.97 from this time last year.

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20 August:

• Al Jazeera, citing data from Kpler, reports that oil flows through the SoH nearly tripled while the MoU was in effect, equaling about 6.1 million barrels per day.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states that that the U.S. will enact the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, saying, “It is a one-two punch. We have the blockade [on Iran], and we are going to have the toughest sanctions in history…It is going to work in Iran, and we are going to collapse this regime.”

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismisses Trumps “economic D-Day” sanctions as a diversion from America’s “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs.”

• The Houthis claimed that they carried out two drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, one a “sensitive target” at Najran airport, the other an Aramco facility at Najran. Though the Saudi government did not confirm the attacks, local sources reported that the main radar at Najran Airport was struck, leading to a temporary suspension of operations.

• Six armed pirates boarded the oil products tanker MT Sibu, roughly 136 nautical miles east of al-Mukalla, Yemen, in the Gulf of Aden, and diverted its course toward Somalia. The vessel carried 20 crew members, including 16 Indian nationals. This came on the heels of another piracy event when on 17 August the Cameroon-flagged M/V Lutuf was seized off the coast of Puntland, Somalia.

• Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan invite Iran to join the Mecca Agreement for Mutual Defense, according to The Jerusalem Post.

19 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, while conflicting reporting suggests a possible increase in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran continues to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies as it seeks to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force, but continued Iranian attacks against commercial shipping could trigger a U.S. military response.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, as the U.S. has not responded militarily to repeated Iranian attacks against commercial shipping in the SoH. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about the extent to which vessels are shifting to the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number of vessels are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled. If use of the Omani route is increasing, Iran could intensify attacks against vessels using it in an effort to preserve its control over maritime access, increasing the risk of another U.S.-Iranian escalatory cycle. Recent reporting also indicates that Iranian hardliners continue to consider broader escalation options in the event of additional U.S. strikes, including attacks against U.S. military assets in Europe or subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH. Meanwhile, recent Houthi attacks around the Bab el-Mandeb, including the reported disruption of operations at the port of Mokha, increase the risk that pressure on regional maritime access could expand beyond the SoH.

Reporting:

• Trump announces an unprecedented “crushing economic operation” or “economic D-Day” against Iran, threatening to target any country that provides a “lifeline to Iran”.

• Axios reports that the U.S. military is escorting 15-20 tankers nightly through a southern route along the coast of Oman, allowing about 10 million barrels per day–about half the pre-war volume–to move through the Strait. The article claims that the operation was made possible by a two week U.S. campaign to degrade Iran’s radar and surveillance systems, degrading Iran’s ability to target traffic in the Strait.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that severing economic ties between Dubai and Tehran will be difficult since much of the economic activity between the two countries have traditionally taken place on a black market.

• CNBC reports that, with U.S. naval assets focused on Iran, piracy in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is a growing concern, with Houthi-Somali Al-Shabaab links deepening.

• CNN reports that 80 percent of traffic through the SoH in the past two weeks passed through the U.S.-backed Omani-designated route, leading the network to conclude that Iran has lost significant control of the SoH. Merchant vessels reportedly are relying on safety assurances and escorts coordinated by U.S. forces patrolling the waterway.

• Offering a different assessment, The Wall Street Journal reports that only two of the 255 ship crossings through the SoH in August have openly used the Omani route, with an undisclosed number of vessels using the route with their transponders turned off.

• The same article notes that in July the U.A.E. actually increased its oil production and was chartering ships to make “shuttle-runs” to transfer oil to vessels waiting just outside the Strait. In contrast, Iraqi, Kuwaiti and Saudi production during the same time was down at least 20 percent.

Note: It is possible the number of smaller, shuttle-run ships transiting the SoH dark accounts for the uptick in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route.

• Citing two people close to the Iranian government, the Financial Times reports that Iran has considered striking US military assets in Europe if the U.S. further escalates the war. According to the report, Iranian forces had assessed potential strikes on US assets in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refueling aircraft. Cyprus, where a British air base was hit by a drone in March, was also cited as a potential target. Iranian forces have separately examined the possibility of targeting subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH in the event of further escalation, the report said.

• The U.A.E. announces that it is imposing an indefinite trade embargo against Iran. The U.A.E. was the largest seller of imported goods to Iran prior to the war, with one-third of Iran’s imports coming from the Emirate.

• Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that the U.S. is seeking an “honorable exit” from the Middle East and touts the “new regional order.”

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with U.A.E. National Security Advisor Shaykh Tahoon bid Zayed al Nahyan about regional security issues.

• Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami criticizes those in Iran who believe “life and survival lie in war.”

Note: Khatami is a moderate, and his willingness to speak publicly suggests that opposition to the recent hardliner ascent persists within Iran, though it is likely constrained by the war and the threat of regime repression.

• Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, warns Gulf states assisting the U.S. military, saying, nothing is “hidden from our eyes.”

• The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon is weighing a smaller U.S. military presence in the Gulf once the war with Iran ends.

• The U.S. Department of Justice says that 17 Iranian members of the Iran-based Mabna Institute were charged with an alleged cyber-campaign targeting hundreds of universities, companies and government agencies in the U.S.

• Iran claims that it received $7.5 billion in oil-related foreign currency revenue in the first four months of the year.

• Oil prices rise for the fourth day in a row:

18 August:

• President Trump says that no conversations are taking place or scheduled with Iran. He also claims that the SoH is open and post a map showing it as a “ New U.S. Territory”.

• The U.A.E.’s Defense Minister says that Iran launched two ballistic missiles aimed at maritime traffic in the SoH.

• Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator says that the SoH will remain closed until the U.S. meets the conditions of the interim deal with Iran, including lifting the naval blockade and sanctions and the release of Iran’s frozen assets.

• The WSJ reports that recent Houthi attacks against the port of Mokha, a key logistical hub for civilian shipping and anti-Houthi forces operating along the Bab el-Mandeb coast, have shut the port down.

• Israel conducts airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase after Israeli intelligence concludes that Turkiye was planning activity there that could threaten Israeli security. The strike causes tensions between Israel and Turkey to spike.

• The Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) says that Iran’s annual inflation rate is at 66 percent.

• A vessel is struck while transiting the SoH.

• U.S. 30-year bond yields hit highest level since 2007 on worries related to the Iran War.

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17 August:

• The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) 60-day timeframe officially expires.

• Trump says that Iran should “put up the white flag of surrender” and threatens to bomb Oman. He also says that the U.S. was engaged in back-channel talks with Iran’s IRGC. The IRGC denied that it was engaging in talks with the U.S.

• Jared Kushner tells Fox News that Iran is “not showing any interest” in a deal that “makes sense” for the United States.

• Trump reiterates his position that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, stating on Truth Social, “The number one goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a nuclear weapon.”

• UKMTO reports that a vessel is struck in the Bab el-Mandeb:

• IRGC commander Brigadier General Yadollah Javani says that Iran will be shifting to a more offensive “maximum deterrence” policy.

• Iran targets the office of Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, in a drone attack.

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16 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, with most vessels opting to use the Iranian-designated lane. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten SoH shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued. Iranian and Omani officials say they have negotiated an agreement on a Strait of Hormuz transit regime, but Iranian messaging and behavior indicate that Tehran intends to preserve its de facto control over maritime access and use it as leverage against the United States and Israel. Notably, the U.S. has not conducted retaliatory strikes following three recent Iranian attacks against U.A.E.-affiliated tankers transiting the SoH, a departure from some earlier incidents in which Iranian attacks on commercial shipping prompted U.S. military retaliation. Repeated Houthi attacks against an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jizan region highlight the continued potential for the conflict to expand along the Red Sea axis.

Reporting:

• Trump instructs the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea, in part because of South Korea’s refusal to get involved in the Iran War.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that after the signing of the MoU in mid-June hard-line Iranian officials used the subsequent two months to prepare for the next stage of the conflict.

• Shipping through the SoH slowed to a standstill over the weekend with only five vessels transiting the SoH, according to Reuters.

• Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Iran “truly won” the war both politically and economically.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says talks with Oman on new routes in the SoH and the reopening of the Strait are “two separate things.”

• Civilian flights resume at the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas.

• Iran’s IRGC claims that 85 percent of Iran’s air defense production capability remained undamaged.

• Axios reports the Nechirvan Barzani, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, led back channel negotiations with the IRGC for the Trump administration in May.

15 August:

• Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route map for the SoH, and that the two sides are negotiating outstanding issues.

• USA Today reports that with midterms on the horizon, Trump is under increasing pressure from Republicans to find a way out of the Iran War.

• The Washington Post reports that Arab and Western officials say that the Gulf countries are “united in their aggravation with the administration” and that “Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory.”

• Iran accuses Qatar of holding three of its pilots whose aircraft were downed in March in detention.

• UKMTO says a tanker was struck off the coast of Oman:

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14 August:

• Trump says that he will declare the SoH a U.S. territory “pretty soon.”

• In response, Iran’s deputy foreign minister says the SoH “will remain Iranian” and the blockade will stay in place until the U.S. accepts defeat.

• A third ADNOC tanker in 48 hours is hit in the SoH.

• An Iranian super tanker is seen loading oil at Kharg Island for the first time since late July, according to Al Jazeera.

13 August:

• Vice president Vance says that Washington’s war aims are twofold: stabilizing American energy prices by ensuring oil can flow through Gulf countries again and to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatens to subject Iran to economic isolation “like the world has never seen before”. According to reports the U.S. Treasury is planning to roll out an aggressive “economic isolation” strategy targeting Iran next week, wielding naval blockades and fresh financial sanctions designed to completely paralyze Tehran’s revenue streams and force a capitulation.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says that the U.S. can maintain its blockade of Iran “indefinitely.”

• Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb, commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij Organization, says that the SoH is “under Iranian control” and that no ship can pass without Iran’s permission. A spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters says, “No commercial vessel or oil tanker can or will have safe passage through the Strait without the permission and supervision of Iran’s powerful Armed Forces.”

• Two Abu Dhabi ADNOC tankers come under attack while transiting the SoH. UKMTO reports two attacks in the vicinity.

• Traffic in the SoH continues to be low, according to MarineTraffic:

• Iran attacks Erbil Iraq with an undisclosed number of drones. Iraqi security officials say the drones were intercepted.

• The Houthis target an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jizan region with two drones. Note: the Houthis targeted the same area on 9 Aug, and, possibly, in late July.

• The Washington Post reports that the U.S. has lost roughly 25 percent of its Reaper drones as a result of the Iran war.

• The U.S. is planning to send the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for more than 250 days without a port call in 200, setting a record for consecutive days at sea.

• British maritime security company Ambrey says that it is engaged in salvaging the Caroline Bezengi, which ran aground off the Omani coast in June and has been leaking oil.

• Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says that Iraq will not allow its territory or airspace to be used to launch attacks against neighboring nations.

• Iran’s central bank governor says that Tehran will join the BRICS New Development Bank soon.

• The Turkish Defense Ministry say that Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye will deepen cooperation across defense industries under 7 August Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.

• German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, one of world’s top container shipping companies says that it has lost 600 million in the second quarter of this year because of the Iran War.

12 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, with most vessels opting to use the Iranian-designated lane. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten SoH shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion as its options for resolving the conflict through military force narrow. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued. Iranian and Omani officials say they are close to agreement on a temporary or “middle” shipping corridor, but Tehran continues to distinguish such an arrangement from fully reopening the Strait. Iran continues to make maximalist demands, including an end to the blockade, sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and compensation for wartime damage, while signaling that it intends to retain authority over commercial transit through the SoH. An 11 August Houthi attack on an Egyptian-owned vessel near the Bab el-Mandeb underscores the continuing risk to commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

• Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif claims that the U.S. and Iran are close to “some sort of an arrangement” and that “Things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or deal.”

• Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is in Tehran for discussions with Iranian officials on the SoH impasse.

• Iran’s new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, says that the SoH will remain closed until all of Iran’s conditions were met, including a complete end to the U.S. war and blockade, release of Iran’s frozen financial assets, and a regional ceasefire.

• Qatar says that negotiations between Oman and Iran over shipping lanes in the SoH are making significant progress.

• The number of vessels transiting the SoH falls to a one week-week low of eight, according to Reuters. MarineTraffic reports that most ships continue to use the Iranian-designated lane.

• The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil supply will fall by about 4 percent in the remainder of the current year. It also raised its estimate for the average Brent crude price for the third quarter of the year, from $81.91 to $86.81.

• The WSJ reports that Tehran is relying on a ‘survival economy’–rationing scarce goods, limiting access to currency, slashing investment and shifting more burdens onto households while preserving strategic imports and the essential machinery of the state–as a way of defying U.S. economic pressure.

• Yossi Cohen, who led Israel’s Mossad between 2015 and 2021, claimed that Israel’s spies visited Iran’s Fordo nuclear site “many times” in the past to understand the facility.

• Iran fires drones and missiles at Iranian Kurdish opposition camps in Erbil province, Iraq.

11 August:

• Trump says that the U.S. is in “total control” of the SoH.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that Iran “astonished the world”, in particular the U.S. and Israel, proving “that it is a tough and invincible power.”

• The Houthi’s attack an Egyptian-owned cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb killing six crew members.

• U.S. forces fire on and disable a Panama-flagged cargo ship attempting to break the blockade on Iran.

• NBC News reports that a recent U.S. military intelligence assessment concluded that Iran’s strategic priority has shifted from its nuclear program to the SoH, as Tehran now views the strait as a stronger and more effective source of leverage.

• The WSJ reports that Persian Gulf energy producers are concluding that Iran’s control over the SoH will become permanent, disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies indefinitely.

10 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes, reported munitions constraints, and increasing reliance on economic pressure and intermediated diplomacy signal narrowing strategic options. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, although Iran continues to selectively attack maritime traffic in the Strait, including the 8 August missile strike on an ADNOC vessel. Iranian and Omani officials say they are close to agreement on a temporary or “middle” shipping corridor, but Tehran continues to distinguish such an arrangement from fully reopening the Strait and is tying broader access to extensive U.S. concessions, including an end to the blockade, sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and compensation for wartime damage. Meanwhile, the 8 August Houthi drone attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Jizan and continuing threats of retaliation by Iraqi Shia militias highlight the persistent risk of regional escalation.

Key Reporting:

• Trump says the U.S. military has cleared the SoH of Iranian mines and that the U.S. has 100% control of the SoH. He also says he’ll demand compensation from Tehran for those killed or wounded in the war.

In a move that appears to indicate further entrenchment of hardliner power in Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei appoints six hardline commanders across the armed forces, the IRGC and Basij domestic security forces. The six include:

• Ali Abdollahi was named chief of staff of the armed forces, replacing Abdolrahim Mousavi. A senior IRGC commander, Abdollahi oversaw the General Staff during the war, and has been tasked with improving coordination across Iran’s military command.

• Kioumars Heydari, the former commander of the army’s ground forces, was appointed deputy chief of staff.

• Ahmad Vahidi was confirmed as commander-in-chief of the IRGC, succeeding Mohammad Pakpour. Khamenei instructed him to strengthen deterrence and readiness for “powerful offensive operations”, language analysts say reflects a more assertive military posture.

• Mostafa Izadi was appointed as Ahmad Vahidi’s deputy, with responsibility for organizational and operational readiness.

• Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, a key position given the continuing confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz.

• Hossein Taeb, a former IRGC intelligence chief, took over the Basij, with orders to strengthen popular mobilisation and domestic intelligence networks.

• Windward says Iran’s crude export pipeline on Kharg Island remains at a “complete halt” amid the US military’s blockade of Iranian ports.

• Windward reports “subdued” maritime traffic in the SoH over the past several days:

• The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says that the threat level in the SoH remains “severe”.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are invited by Pakistan to visit Islamabad for talks, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.

• Oman says an oil slick from the grounded tanker Caroline Bezengi—a Cameroon-flagged Suezmax crude tanker, widely described as part of Russia’s shadow fleet and sanctioned by the UK and EU—now covers about 390 square kilometers (150 sq miles).

9 August:

• Trump says that Washington is only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran and is waiting for economic pressure to mount. He also says: “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,”

• The WSJ reports that Trump was prepared to declare victory in the war and forgo a nuclear deal with Tehran if Tehran opened the SoH.

• Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly meets with supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Earlier, Pezeshkian called for an end to a period of “neither war nor peace.”

• Iranian state-controlled Mehr news agency releases an undated video of Mojtaba Khamenei.

• Mojtaba Khamemei appoints Mohsen Rezai, a hard-liner and former IRGC commander, as his representative to the Supreme National Security Council.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Arachchi says that talks with Oman to establish a new maritime route in the SoH have progressed well and are in their final stages but the SoH will not open until the U.S. meets Iran’s demands, to include the U.S. paying compensation to Iran for damages incurred during the war. He also says that Iran is currently holding no negotiations with the U.S. and is only exchanging messages through intermediaries.

• Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, listed Iran’s demands to the U.S. as: ending further U.S. threats against Iran; halting aggression toward Iran and its Lebanese, Palestinian, Yemeni, and Iraq allies; removing the U.S. naval blockade; lifting sanctions on Iran; and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

• The Houthis claim responsibility for a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oil facility in Jizan, saying that the attack was in retaliation to a Saudi drone attack on Yemen’s Saada and Hajjah provinces. Saudi officials say that firefighters “extinguished a fire that broke out at dawn” at the facility due to the attack.

• Al Jazeera posts the following timeline of Iranian-Omani talks:

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters on Saturday that the ongoing talks are about establishing a “temporary route” in the Strait of Hormuz and said, “We’re almost very close to the result.”

But he said that other conditions, including compensation from the US for war damages, must be met before the strait is reopened.

Iran’s National Security Council meanwhile laid out six conditions for Hormuz to reopen. They are: the US ending its threats to Iran; halting military action against Iran and its regional allies; withdrawing naval and air forces involved in blockading Iran; compensating Iran for damage caused in the conflict; lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

A spokesperson for the IRGC also said on Saturday that the reopening of Hormuz is conditional on the US “fully accepting Iran’s conditions and ceasing to interfere in the regional negotiations”.

For its part, Oman condemned continuing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, without assigning blame, and said negotiations with Iran on the waterway were “positive and constructive”.

Iranian media reported last week that the talks were aimed at establishing a “middle corridor” through the strait, distinct from both the northern route established by Iran and the southern corridor favoured by the US. The Foreign Ministry said the geographical coordinates of the new route have been finalised.

• TankerTrackers.com reports that a fleet of at least 56 tankers is conducting “covert ship-to-ship transfers” to move oil from Gulf countries through the SoH.

• CENTCOM says 55 commercial vessels have been rerouted as a result of its blockade on Iran.

• Iraq’s Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Shia militia says it will retaliate for joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces last month.

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8 August:

• Iran says a ‘general framework’ is reached with Oman on managing maritime traffic in the Strait.

• CNN reports that US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Cain has been privately looking for an off-ramp to the Iran War, making it clear to Trump administration advisors that available military options may not be enough to achieve Trump’s war objectives.

• U.S. vice president Vance says that the U.S. has “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear program and degraded its military.

• Iran targets a vessel belonging to Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) as it was crossing the SoH. ADNOC later says that the ship was targeted by an Iranian missile and there were no casualties.

• Iran’s IRGC says that the opening of the Strait is conditional on the U.S. “fully accepting Iran’s conditions” not on any deal with Oman.

• Iraq’s oil minister says that Iraq’s oil exports are down 75% due to the closure of the SoH.

7 August:

• Al Jazeera reports that several Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking vessels to enter the Strait and load crude at Iraq’s Basrah Oil Terminal because Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO was offering discounts at close to $30 a barrel.

• Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a trilateral defense agreement (the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) under which an attack on one is considered an attack on all.

• Citing data from Kpler, Reuters reports that shipping in the SoH is down sharply, falling to 33 vessels from 3-7 August, down from 50 the previous week.

• The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passes the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, designed to punish major buyers of Russian oil and gas. The bill also included a last-minute demand from President Trump to include additional sanctions on Iran’s weapons and energy sectors.

• Hadi al-Amiri, the head of Iraq’s Badr Organization, calls on Iraqi militias to postpone retaliation against Saudi Arabia for the “sake of Iraq’s highest interests.”

Note: On 29 July, in response to late July Iraqi Shia militia attacks against Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia launched joint strikes targeting Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in Iraq, killing more than 20 people. The strikes were in retaliation for likely Shia militia attacks on Saudi Arabia.

6 August:

Key Judgement: Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes are weakening U.S. coercive credibility and narrowing its strategic options, while Tehran is pressuring regional governments to oppose further escalation. Reported shortages of U.S. interceptors and precision-guided munitions appears to be affecting Washington’s operational tempo. Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, although Iran or Iran-aligned forces may have attacked two vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and another in the Gulf of Aden over the past several days. Meanwhile, discussions over maritime access are becoming increasingly detailed. Iranian officials claim that Tehran and Oman have agreed on the geographic coordinates of a proposed shipping route, while reporting indicates Iran is seeking transit fees and substantial administrative authority over vessels entering the Gulf.

Reporting:

• Bloomberg reports that, as part of the proposed Iran-Oman consortium agreement, Iran is seeking to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz while requiring “hostile countries” to pay compensation before being granted access.

• President Trump says he is “extremely happy” with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and that Iran is “going very well”.

• The Washington Post reports that Trump’s frustration boiled over at a recent Camp David meeting and he “demanded answers” from Hegseth over extreme missile shortages.

• Iran state broadcaster IRIB says that Iran’s parliament is reviewing an initial text of agreement that bans “vessels from hostile countries” from traveling through the SoH.

• Eight of the world’s largest shipping associations in a letter to the UN Secretary-General urge the United Nations to oppose tolls in the SoH.

• Windward reports that 12 vessels transited the SoH in the past 24 hours.

• The Houthis claim attacks on two Saudi oil tankers near Yanbu port in the Red Sea and in the Gulf of Aden (unconfirmed).

• Khori Hiwa (Sun of Hope), a newly formed armed group in western Iran says that its fighters clashed with Iranian government forces in West Azerbaijan province, and claim to have inflicted casualties.

• Reuters reports that Iran made a concerted diplomatic push to warn Gulf states that Tehran would hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convinced Trump to end U.S. strikes on Iran and seek a diplomatic solution. The message was delivered after Trump, on 28 July, threatened to strike Iran’s energy network and infrastructure.

• CBS reports that at least 12 states in the U.S. report cyberattacks on water systems possibly linked to Iran-backed hackers.

• The Independent reports that Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian stated in an interview on state television that interaction with Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was “very difficult”.

• Al Jazeera reports that Iranian security forces and religious morality police have intensified restrictions, arrests, and punishments for people and businesses deemed noncompliant with a wide range of regulations on practices deemed by the state as immoral and un-Islamic.

• The Independent reports that disruption of supplies through the SoH are leaving millions vulnerable to hunger in Yemen.

• Iran says 21 Mossad ‘mercenaries’ were arrested for spying on the Iranian military.

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5 August:

• Trump says there was “all-day negotiation” with Iran the day before, characterizing the talks as positive while threatening to hit Iran “really hard” if a deal is not reached.

• Trump denies media reports of depleted weapons stockpiles saying the U.S. has massive amounts of munitions and that the “leakers” behind the “treasonous statements” are being hunted down.

• Qatar says mediators are making progress in efforts to end the war.

• Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman says that Oman and Iran are close to finalizing an agreement on an agreed upon shipping route for the SoH, saying “The geographic coordinates of the route envisioned by both sides have been agreed upon.”

• Reuters reports that the proposed Oman-Iran deal would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf through the SoH, and that, according to a senior Iranian official, Iran is seeking transit fees between 5% and 7%.

• Media reports indicate that vessel transits in the SoH and Bab el-Mandeb continue to be low.

• UKMTO reports two possible shipping attacks, on off the coast of Oman, the other in the Gulf of Aden:

• Bloomberg reports that Iran-linked cyberattacks against US water infrastructure are expanding and ongoing, with security agencies warning that the digital operations are increasing and shifting from sporadic incidents to localized disruptions.

• Bloomberg reports that Iran is considering allowing European countries to carry out mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal is being discussed as a compromise to restore normal maritime traffic and restart peace talks between the US and Iran.

4 August:

• Trump calls Iranian leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” on social media and declared that it was Iran’s final opportunity to sign an agreement.

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that talks with Oman regarding safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz were progressing positively.

• Iranian media reported on August 4 that an “unknown projectile” hit a Greek-owned cargo ship, MINOAN PIONEER, off the Omani coast near the strait’s entrance.

• Reuters reports that the U.S. has used ‘virtually all’ of its long-range precision missiles during the Iran War.

• Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent says “We are in talks with the Iranians...There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict.” Oil prices drop and the stock market surged following his statement.

3 August:

Key Judgement: Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes are weakening U.S. coercive credibility and narrowing its strategic options, while Iran is actively mobilizing regional opposition to further escalation. Reported shortages of U.S. interceptors and precision-guided munitions may be influencing Washington’s operational tempo as the Trump administration continues to alternate between threatened escalation and renewed diplomacy. Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued following Washington’s decision to postpone threatened large-scale strikes against Iran. Commercial traffic through the SoH remains very low, while Tehran continues to signal that it intends to retain a central role in determining access through the waterway. Contrary to President Trump’s claim that new talks are imminent, Iranian officials deny that direct negotiations with Washington are underway and are instead emphasizing Omani-mediated discussions. Iran’s simultaneous outreach to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey appears intended to mobilize regional pressure against renewed U.S. escalation, while reported Saudi concerns suggest that Washington’s regional partners may increasingly be constraining its military freedom of action.

Watching: Despite the lull in fighting, the situation remains volatile, and a sudden clash in the Strait could trigger another cycle of reciprocal regional escalation. Additional reporting on a possible U.S.-Qatari compromise under which vessels would enter the SoH through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters—particularly who would authorize, monitor, and enforce access. Signs that regional political pressure is increasingly constraining Washington’s military freedom of action. Further Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea that further disrupt global energy markets and maritime trade. Expanded involvement by external actors, particularly China or Ukraine, could widen the conflict even further.

• Amir al-Mousawi, a former Iranian diplomat in contact with current Iranian negotiators, tells the NYTs that Trump sent Iran a message vowing a severe attack on Iranian infrastructure if the Iranians did not restart negotiations. The Iranians refused, unless Washington returned to the previous MoU.

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says that there are currently no negotiations underway with the U.S. but that there has been progress in talks with Oman to secure a passage through the SoH.

• UKMTO reports that a vessel off the coast of Oman was hit by an unknown projectile.

• Maritime traffic in the SoH continues to be low:

• Al Jazeera publishes the following timeline on recent Iranian-Omani talks:

• The IRGC claims that is shot down an MQ-9 Reaper drone flying over the SoH.

• Reuters reports that six-Saudi flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden in recent days and headed to southern Africa, as a result of the Houthi threat to target Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.

• Iran executes two alleged Israeli spies.

• Windward says that 22 Chinese-linked vessels have transited the Bab el-Mandeb since 20 July.

• The seven members of OPEC+ decide to increase oil production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day.

• Reuters reports that manufacturing activity in China slowed in July as the war in the Middle East weakened demand and raised costs.

• Brent crude down on news of possible renewed U.S.-Iranian negotiations:

2 August:

• Trump once again calls off major attacks on Iran, saying in a Truth Social posting: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off on any attack.” He also claims that a deal on the SoH is “imminent” and new talks with Iran will begin on Monday.”

• The Saudi Press Agency reports that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump discussed developments in the region and their regional and international repercussions. MBS reportedly raised concerns about Trump’s plans to escalate strikes on Iran.

• Israeli media (N12) reports that Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi agreed to a US- and Qatari-formulated proposal in which vessels would enter the Persian Gulf through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters.

• Iraqi media says a drone attack targeted the Peshmerga’s 70th Brigade HQS in Sulaimaniyah, Iraq.

1 August:

• President Trump threatens to launch a new attack on Iran, but U.S. officials say that he could halt the attacks if there is progress on the diplomatic front.

• Axios reports that Trump is seriously considering hitting Iranian energy targets in the next few days. The strikes could involve the Israeli military, which would likely lead to Iranian attacks on Israel.

• Multiple sources tell CBS News that the U.S. and Israel are planning a huge bombing campaign against energy infrastructure targets in Iran.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi holds separate phone calls with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. During the discussions Araghchi reportedly warned against any U.S. military action, reiterating that Iran was willing to respond decisively to any attack against its sovereignty or national security.

• Iranian Major General Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s top joint military command, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, says that countries in the region should reconsider their alignment with the U.S. and that any country serving as the U.S.’ “defensive shield” will be “consumed by the flames of war.”

• The Washington Post reports that Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the head of U.S. European Command sent written notification to senior Pentagon officials saying that without another Navy destroyer he will be forced to choose defense of the United States “homeland” over that of Israel. U.S. naval destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have been employed as part of Israel’s defense for many years, with European Command central to the mission.

• Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref says that Iran is preparing supplies for the next two years and that the government is planning for “even the worst conditions.”

• Kuwaiti officials say they intercepted Iranian drones that were targeting “vital installations.”

• UKMTO reports that a tanker located 21 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, reported an explosion and large splash close to the vessel:

• A Houthi spokesman claims that the Houthis have forced eight Saudi oil tankers to change course in the Red Sea.

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23 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remains low, though growing evidence appears to indicate that substantial oil volumes are moving through the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran retains its ability to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies in order to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force. Economic conditions in Iran continue to deteriorate as a result of the U.S. blockade and sanctions.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, with no reported Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the SoH in the past five days. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about the number of vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled, though recent U.S. statements provide additional evidence that substantial oil volumes are moving through the corridor. Despite continued hardliner dominance in Iran, several prominent Iranian political figures have publicly advocated ending the war or emphasized the rising costs of continuing it, potentially indicating increased pressure within the political establishment to identify an eventual off-ramp. Meanwhile, Houthi pressure on Saudi shipping in and around the Bab el-Mandeb is increasingly affecting regional energy flows, with Riyadh adopting alternative shipping and pipeline arrangements to mitigate the disruption.

Reporting:

• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian in a speech published by Iranian state-run IRNA says that members of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council believed that the now-expired MoU represented the best possible agreement, saying, “There is not a single provision in this agreement that amounts to capitulation.”

• Mohsen Rezaei, the newly appointed leader of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that Iran would target oil-shipping routes and other “interests” of Gulf countries if they participate in U.S. sanctions on Iran. He also says, “So far we have only targeted military bases, but if they want to impose economic sanctions on us, the U.S. has oil and economic companies around Iran and elsewhere, and we will strike them.”

• The Telegraph reports that Iranian hackers shut down a British power plant for four days in an unprecedented cyberattack in July.

• Iranian media reports that Pakistan’s army chief will travel to Tehran on Monday for talks with Iranian officials.

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22 August:

• Following a meeting in Iraq between Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his Iraqi counterpart, Haibat al-Halbousi, Iran grants permission for an unspecified number of Iraqi oil tankers to move through the Strait.

• Russia’s state-owned corporation for atomic energy Rosatom says that 42 of its workers have returned to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant and that if all goes well it plans to have 100 of its workers operating there next fall.

• Recovery of production capacity at the Phase 14 refinery in Iran’s South Pars gas-field is 70 percent complete and is expected to be finished by next spring, according to the CEO of Pars Oil and Gas Company, who also stated that a full rebuild of the entire war-damaged facility would take two years.

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21 August:

• Trump says he views the Strait of Hormuz as “American territory.”

• U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the U.S. military helped ship more than 15 million barrels of oil and other products through the Strait on 18 August and that an average of eight million barrels is now passing through the waterway each day.

• Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in separate comments, say that Iran needs to focus on ending the war and shoring up its crippled economy. Pezeshkian said, “The war must come to an end at some point…It is better that we demonstrate our strength and dignity today and tell the world that we have won and that we are ending the war.” For his part, Galibaf stated: “No matter how much military power we have, if our people are struggling and the country lacks financial circulation and economic growth, we will not achieve progress…As someone who has experienced war, we understand the true value of peace.”

• UKMTO assesses that the southern Omani route through the SoH remains the most high risk corridor, accounting for 16 of the 18 projectile strikes since 6 July.

• Lloyd’s List assesses that traffic at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port has fallen by more than a third since the Houthi blockade against Saudi shipping in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia is coping with the situation by using shuttle tankers, Egypt’s Sumed pipeline and the Sidi Kerir port on Egypt’s Mediterranean Sea coast.

• Reuters reports that offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have declined and prices have jumped as the U.S. blockade had cut Tehran’s shipments, according to trade sources.

• The U.S. national average gas price on Friday was $4.11 per gallon, up $0.97 from this time last year.

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20 August:

• Al Jazeera, citing data from Kpler, reports that oil flows through the SoH nearly tripled while the MoU was in effect, equaling about 6.1 million barrels per day.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent states that that the U.S. will enact the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, saying, “It is a one-two punch. We have the blockade [on Iran], and we are going to have the toughest sanctions in history…It is going to work in Iran, and we are going to collapse this regime.”

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismisses Trumps “economic D-Day” sanctions as a diversion from America’s “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs.”

• The Houthis claimed that they carried out two drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, one a “sensitive target” at Najran airport, the other an Aramco facility at Najran. Though the Saudi government did not confirm the attacks, local sources reported that the main radar at Najran Airport was struck, leading to a temporary suspension of operations.

• Six armed pirates boarded the oil products tanker MT Sibu, roughly 136 nautical miles east of al-Mukalla, Yemen, in the Gulf of Aden, and diverted its course toward Somalia. The vessel carried 20 crew members, including 16 Indian nationals. This came on the heels of another piracy event when on 17 August the Cameroon-flagged M/V Lutuf was seized off the coast of Puntland, Somalia.

• Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan invite Iran to join the Mecca Agreement for Mutual Defense, according to The Jerusalem Post.

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19 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, while conflicting reporting suggests a possible increase in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran continues to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies as it seeks to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force, but continued Iranian attacks against commercial shipping could trigger a U.S. military response.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, as the U.S. has not responded militarily to repeated Iranian attacks against commercial shipping in the SoH. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about the extent to which vessels are shifting to the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number of vessels are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled. If use of the Omani route is increasing, Iran could intensify attacks against vessels using it in an effort to preserve its control over maritime access, increasing the risk of another U.S.-Iranian escalatory cycle. Recent reporting also indicates that Iranian hardliners continue to consider broader escalation options in the event of additional U.S. strikes, including attacks against U.S. military assets in Europe or subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH. Meanwhile, recent Houthi attacks around the Bab el-Mandeb, including the reported disruption of operations at the port of Mokha, increase the risk that pressure on regional maritime access could expand beyond the SoH.

Reporting:

• Trump announces an unprecedented “crushing economic operation” or “economic D-Day” against Iran, threatening to target any country that provides a “lifeline to Iran”.

• Axios reports that the U.S. military is escorting 15-20 tankers nightly through a southern route along the coast of Oman, allowing about 10 million barrels per day–about half the pre-war volume–to move through the Strait. The article claims that the operation was made possible by a two week U.S. campaign to degrade Iran’s radar and surveillance systems, degrading Iran’s ability to target traffic in the Strait.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that severing economic ties between Dubai and Tehran will be difficult since much of the economic activity between the two countries have traditionally taken place on a black market.

• CNBC reports that, with U.S. naval assets focused on Iran, piracy in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is a growing concern, with Houthi-Somali Al-Shabaab links deepening.

• CNN reports that 80 percent of traffic through the SoH in the past two weeks passed through the U.S.-backed Omani-designated route, leading the network to conclude that Iran has lost significant control of the SoH. Merchant vessels reportedly are relying on safety assurances and escorts coordinated by U.S. forces patrolling the waterway.

• Offering a different assessment, The Wall Street Journal reports that only two of the 255 ship crossings through the SoH in August have openly used the Omani route, with an undisclosed number of vessels using the route with their transponders turned off.

• The same article notes that in July the U.A.E. actually increased its oil production and was chartering ships to make “shuttle-runs” to transfer oil to vessels waiting just outside the Strait. In contrast, Iraqi, Kuwaiti and Saudi production during the same time was down at least 20 percent.

Note: It is possible the number of smaller, shuttle-run ships transiting the SoH dark accounts for the uptick in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route.

• Citing two people close to the Iranian government, the Financial Times reports that Iran has considered striking US military assets in Europe if the U.S. further escalates the war. According to the report, Iranian forces had assessed potential strikes on US assets in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refueling aircraft. Cyprus, where a British air base was hit by a drone in March, was also cited as a potential target. Iranian forces have separately examined the possibility of targeting subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH in the event of further escalation, the report said.

• The U.A.E. announces that it is imposing an indefinite trade embargo against Iran. The U.A.E. was the largest seller of imported goods to Iran prior to the war, with one-third of Iran’s imports coming from the Emirate.

• Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that the U.S. is seeking an “honorable exit” from the Middle East and touts the “new regional order.”

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with U.A.E. National Security Advisor Shaykh Tahoon bid Zayed al Nahyan about regional security issues.

• Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami criticizes those in Iran who believe “life and survival lie in war.”

Note: Khatami is a moderate, and his willingness to speak publicly suggests that opposition to the recent hardliner ascent persists within Iran, though it is likely constrained by the war and the threat of regime repression.

• Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, warns Gulf states assisting the U.S. military, saying, nothing is “hidden from our eyes.”

• The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon is weighing a smaller U.S. military presence in the Gulf once the war with Iran ends.

• The U.S. Department of Justice says that 17 Iranian members of the Iran-based Mabna Institute were charged with an alleged cyber-campaign targeting hundreds of universities, companies and government agencies in the U.S.

• Iran claims that it received $7.5 billion in oil-related foreign currency revenue in the first four months of the year.

• Oil prices rise for the fourth day in a row:

18 August:

• President Trump says that no conversations are taking place or scheduled with Iran. He also claims that the SoH is open and post a map showing it as a “ New U.S. Territory”.

• The U.A.E.’s Defense Minister says that Iran launched two ballistic missiles aimed at maritime traffic in the SoH.

• Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator says that the SoH will remain closed until the U.S. meets the conditions of the interim deal with Iran, including lifting the naval blockade and sanctions and the release of Iran’s frozen assets.

• The WSJ reports that recent Houthi attacks against the port of Mokha, a key logistical hub for civilian shipping and anti-Houthi forces operating along the Bab el-Mandeb coast, have shut the port down.

• Israel conducts airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase after Israeli intelligence concludes that Turkiye was planning activity there that could threaten Israeli security. The strike causes tensions between Israel and Turkey to spike.

  

• The Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) says that Iran’s annual inflation rate is at 66 percent.

• A vessel is struck while transiting the SoH.

• U.S. 30-year bond yields hit highest level since 2007 on worries related to the Iran War.

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17 August:

• The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) 60-day timeframe officially expires.

• Trump says that Iran should “put up the white flag of surrender” and threatens to bomb Oman. He also says that the U.S. was engaged in back-channel talks with Iran’s IRGC. The IRGC denied that it was engaging in talks with the U.S.

• Jared Kushner tells Fox News that Iran is “not showing any interest” in a deal that “makes sense” for the United States.

• Trump reiterates his position that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, stating on Truth Social, “The number one goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a nuclear weapon.”

• UKMTO reports that a vessel is struck in the Bab el-Mandeb:

• IRGC commander Brigadier General Yadollah Javani says that Iran will be shifting to a more offensive “maximum deterrence” policy.

• Iran targets the office of Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, in a drone attack.

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16 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, with most vessels opting to use the Iranian-designated lane. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten SoH shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued. Iranian and Omani officials say they have negotiated an agreement on a Strait of Hormuz transit regime, but Iranian messaging and behavior indicate that Tehran intends to preserve its de facto control over maritime access and use it as leverage against the United States and Israel. Notably, the U.S. has not conducted retaliatory strikes following three recent Iranian attacks against U.A.E.-affiliated tankers transiting the SoH, a departure from some earlier incidents in which Iranian attacks on commercial shipping prompted U.S. military retaliation. Repeated Houthi attacks against an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jizan region highlight the continued potential for the conflict to expand along the Red Sea axis.

Reporting:

• Trump instructs the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea, in part because of South Korea’s refusal to get involved in the Iran War.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that after the signing of the MoU in mid-June hard-line Iranian officials used the subsequent two months to prepare for the next stage of the conflict.

• Shipping through the SoH slowed to a standstill over the weekend with only five vessels transiting the SoH, according to Reuters.

• Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Iran “truly won” the war both politically and economically.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says talks with Oman on new routes in the SoH and the reopening of the Strait are “two separate things.”

• Civilian flights resume at the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas.

• Iran’s IRGC claims that 85 percent of Iran’s air defense production capability remained undamaged.

• Axios reports the Nechirvan Barzani, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, led back channel negotiations with the IRGC for the Trump administration in May.

15 August:

• Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route map for the SoH, and that the two sides are negotiating outstanding issues.

• USA Today reports that with midterms on the horizon, Trump is under increasing pressure from Republicans to find a way out of the Iran War.

• The Washington Post reports that Arab and Western officials say that the Gulf countries are “united in their aggravation with the administration” and that “Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory.”

• Iran accuses Qatar of holding three of its pilots whose aircraft were downed in March in detention.

• UKMTO says a tanker was struck off the coast of Oman:

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14 August:

• Trump says that he will declare the SoH a U.S. territory “pretty soon.”

• In response, Iran’s deputy foreign minister says the SoH “will remain Iranian” and the blockade will stay in place until the U.S. accepts defeat.

• A third ADNOC tanker in 48 hours is hit in the SoH.

• An Iranian super tanker is seen loading oil at Kharg Island for the first time since late July, according to Al Jazeera.

13 August:

• Vice president Vance says that Washington’s war aims are twofold: stabilizing American energy prices by ensuring oil can flow through Gulf countries again and to stop Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatens to subject Iran to economic isolation “like the world has never seen before”. According to reports the U.S. Treasury is planning to roll out an aggressive “economic isolation” strategy targeting Iran next week, wielding naval blockades and fresh financial sanctions designed to completely paralyze Tehran’s revenue streams and force a capitulation.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says that the U.S. can maintain its blockade of Iran “indefinitely.”

• Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb, commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij Organization, says that the SoH is “under Iranian control” and that no ship can pass without Iran’s permission. A spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters says, “No commercial vessel or oil tanker can or will have safe passage through the Strait without the permission and supervision of Iran’s powerful Armed Forces.”

• Two Abu Dhabi ADNOC tankers come under attack while transiting the SoH. UKMTO reports two attacks in the vicinity.

• Traffic in the SoH continues to be low, according to MarineTraffic:

• Iran attacks Erbil Iraq with an undisclosed number of drones. Iraqi security officials say the drones were intercepted.

• The Houthis target an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jizan region with two drones. Note: the Houthis targeted the same area on 9 Aug, and, possibly, in late July.

• The Washington Post reports that the U.S. has lost roughly 25 percent of its Reaper drones as a result of the Iran war.

• The U.S. is planning to send the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for more than 250 days without a port call in 200, setting a record for consecutive days at sea.

• British maritime security company Ambrey says that it is engaged in salvaging the Caroline Bezengi, which ran aground off the Omani coast in June and has been leaking oil.

• Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says that Iraq will not allow its territory or airspace to be used to launch attacks against neighboring nations.

• Iran’s central bank governor says that Tehran will join the BRICS New Development Bank soon.

• The Turkish Defense Ministry say that Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye will deepen cooperation across defense industries under 7 August Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.

• German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd, one of world’s top container shipping companies says that it has lost 600 million in the second quarter of this year because of the Iran War.

12 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, with most vessels opting to use the Iranian-designated lane. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten SoH shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion as its options for resolving the conflict through military force narrow. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued. Iranian and Omani officials say they are close to agreement on a temporary or “middle” shipping corridor, but Tehran continues to distinguish such an arrangement from fully reopening the Strait. Iran continues to make maximalist demands, including an end to the blockade, sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and compensation for wartime damage, while signaling that it intends to retain authority over commercial transit through the SoH. An 11 August Houthi attack on an Egyptian-owned vessel near the Bab el-Mandeb underscores the continuing risk to commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

• Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif claims that the U.S. and Iran are close to “some sort of an arrangement” and that “Things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or deal.”

• Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is in Tehran for discussions with Iranian officials on the SoH impasse.

• Iran’s new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, says that the SoH will remain closed until all of Iran’s conditions were met, including a complete end to the U.S. war and blockade, release of Iran’s frozen financial assets, and a regional ceasefire.

• Qatar says that negotiations between Oman and Iran over shipping lanes in the SoH are making significant progress.

• The number of vessels transiting the SoH falls to a one week-week low of eight, according to Reuters. MarineTraffic reports that most ships continue to use the Iranian-designated lane.

• The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil supply will fall by about 4 percent in the remainder of the current year. It also raised its estimate for the average Brent crude price for the third quarter of the year, from $81.91 to $86.81.

• The WSJ reports that Tehran is relying on a ‘survival economy’–rationing scarce goods, limiting access to currency, slashing investment and shifting more burdens onto households while preserving strategic imports and the essential machinery of the state–as a way of defying U.S. economic pressure.

• Yossi Cohen, who led Israel’s Mossad between 2015 and 2021, claimed that Israel’s spies visited Iran’s Fordo nuclear site “many times” in the past to understand the facility.

• Iran fires drones and missiles at Iranian Kurdish opposition camps in Erbil province, Iraq.

11 August:

• Trump says that the U.S. is in “total control” of the SoH.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that Iran “astonished the world”, in particular the U.S. and Israel, proving “that it is a tough and invincible power.”

• The Houthi’s attack an Egyptian-owned cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb killing six crew members.

• U.S. forces fire on and disable a Panama-flagged cargo ship attempting to break the blockade on Iran.

• NBC News reports that a recent U.S. military intelligence assessment concluded that Iran’s strategic priority has shifted from its nuclear program to the SoH, as Tehran now views the strait as a stronger and more effective source of leverage.

• The WSJ reports that Persian Gulf energy producers are concluding that Iran’s control over the SoH will become permanent, disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies indefinitely.

10 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes, reported munitions constraints, and increasing reliance on economic pressure and intermediated diplomacy signal narrowing strategic options. Tehran is simultaneously negotiating mechanisms for limited maritime transit while maintaining maximalist conditions for fully reopening the Strait, suggesting Iran intends to preserve its coercive leverage even as some commercial traffic resumes.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, although Iran continues to selectively attack maritime traffic in the Strait, including the 8 August missile strike on an ADNOC vessel. Iranian and Omani officials say they are close to agreement on a temporary or “middle” shipping corridor, but Tehran continues to distinguish such an arrangement from fully reopening the Strait and is tying broader access to extensive U.S. concessions, including an end to the blockade, sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and compensation for wartime damage. Meanwhile, the 8 August Houthi drone attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Jizan and continuing threats of retaliation by Iraqi Shia militias highlight the persistent risk of regional escalation.

Key Reporting:

• Trump says the U.S. military has cleared the SoH of Iranian mines and that the U.S. has 100% control of the SoH. He also says he’ll demand compensation from Tehran for those killed or wounded in the war.

In a move that appears to indicate further entrenchment of hardliner power in Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei appoints six hardline commanders across the armed forces, the IRGC and Basij domestic security forces. The six include:

• Ali Abdollahi was named chief of staff of the armed forces, replacing Abdolrahim Mousavi. A senior IRGC commander, Abdollahi oversaw the General Staff during the war, and has been tasked with improving coordination across Iran’s military command.

• Kioumars Heydari, the former commander of the army’s ground forces, was appointed deputy chief of staff.

• Ahmad Vahidi was confirmed as commander-in-chief of the IRGC, succeeding Mohammad Pakpour. Khamenei instructed him to strengthen deterrence and readiness for “powerful offensive operations”, language analysts say reflects a more assertive military posture.

• Mostafa Izadi was appointed as Ahmad Vahidi’s deputy, with responsibility for organizational and operational readiness.

• Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, a key position given the continuing confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz.

• Hossein Taeb, a former IRGC intelligence chief, took over the Basij, with orders to strengthen popular mobilisation and domestic intelligence networks.

• Windward says Iran’s crude export pipeline on Kharg Island remains at a “complete halt” amid the US military’s blockade of Iranian ports.

• Windward reports “subdued” maritime traffic in the SoH over the past several days:

• The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says that the threat level in the SoH remains “severe”.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are invited by Pakistan to visit Islamabad for talks, according to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.

• Oman says an oil slick from the grounded tanker Caroline Bezengi—a Cameroon-flagged Suezmax crude tanker, widely described as part of Russia’s shadow fleet and sanctioned by the UK and EU—now covers about 390 square kilometers (150 sq miles).

9 August:

• Trump says that Washington is only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran and is waiting for economic pressure to mount. He also says: “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,”

• The WSJ reports that Trump was prepared to declare victory in the war and forgo a nuclear deal with Tehran if Tehran opened the SoH.

• Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly meets with supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Earlier, Pezeshkian called for an end to a period of “neither war nor peace.”

• Iranian state-controlled Mehr news agency releases an undated video of Mojtaba Khamenei.

• Mojtaba Khamemei appoints Mohsen Rezai, a hard-liner and former IRGC commander, as his representative to the Supreme National Security Council.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Arachchi says that talks with Oman to establish a new maritime route in the SoH have progressed well and are in their final stages but the SoH will not open until the U.S. meets Iran’s demands, to include the U.S. paying compensation to Iran for damages incurred during the war. He also says that Iran is currently holding no negotiations with the U.S. and is only exchanging messages through intermediaries.

• Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, listed Iran’s demands to the U.S. as: ending further U.S. threats against Iran; halting aggression toward Iran and its Lebanese, Palestinian, Yemeni, and Iraq allies; removing the U.S. naval blockade; lifting sanctions on Iran; and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

• The Houthis claim responsibility for a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oil facility in Jizan, saying that the attack was in retaliation to a Saudi drone attack on Yemen’s Saada and Hajjah provinces. Saudi officials say that firefighters “extinguished a fire that broke out at dawn” at the facility due to the attack.

• Al Jazeera posts the following timeline of Iranian-Omani talks:

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters on Saturday that the ongoing talks are about establishing a “temporary route” in the Strait of Hormuz and said, “We’re almost very close to the result.”

But he said that other conditions, including compensation from the US for war damages, must be met before the strait is reopened.

Iran’s National Security Council meanwhile laid out six conditions for Hormuz to reopen. They are: the US ending its threats to Iran; halting military action against Iran and its regional allies; withdrawing naval and air forces involved in blockading Iran; compensating Iran for damage caused in the conflict; lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

A spokesperson for the IRGC also said on Saturday that the reopening of Hormuz is conditional on the US “fully accepting Iran’s conditions and ceasing to interfere in the regional negotiations”.

For its part, Oman condemned continuing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, without assigning blame, and said negotiations with Iran on the waterway were “positive and constructive”.

Iranian media reported last week that the talks were aimed at establishing a “middle corridor” through the strait, distinct from both the northern route established by Iran and the southern corridor favoured by the US. The Foreign Ministry said the geographical coordinates of the new route have been finalised.

• TankerTrackers.com reports that a fleet of at least 56 tankers is conducting “covert ship-to-ship transfers” to move oil from Gulf countries through the SoH.

• CENTCOM says 55 commercial vessels have been rerouted as a result of its blockade on Iran.

• Iraq’s Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba Shia militia says it will retaliate for joint U.S.-Saudi strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces last month.

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8 August:

• Iran says a ‘general framework’ is reached with Oman on managing maritime traffic in the Strait.

• CNN reports that US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Cain has been privately looking for an off-ramp to the Iran War, making it clear to Trump administration advisors that available military options may not be enough to achieve Trump’s war objectives.

• U.S. vice president Vance says that the U.S. has “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear program and degraded its military.

• Iran targets a vessel belonging to Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company (ADNOC) as it was crossing the SoH. ADNOC later says that the ship was targeted by an Iranian missile and there were no casualties.

• Iran’s IRGC says that the opening of the Strait is conditional on the U.S. “fully accepting Iran’s conditions” not on any deal with Oman.

• Iraq’s oil minister says that Iraq’s oil exports are down 75% due to the closure of the SoH.

7 August:

• Al Jazeera reports that several Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking vessels to enter the Strait and load crude at Iraq’s Basrah Oil Terminal because Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO was offering discounts at close to $30 a barrel.

• Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a trilateral defense agreement (the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) under which an attack on one is considered an attack on all.

• Citing data from Kpler, Reuters reports that shipping in the SoH is down sharply, falling to 33 vessels from 3-7 August, down from 50 the previous week.

• The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passes the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, designed to punish major buyers of Russian oil and gas. The bill also included a last-minute demand from President Trump to include additional sanctions on Iran’s weapons and energy sectors.

• Hadi al-Amiri, the head of Iraq’s Badr Organization, calls on Iraqi militias to postpone retaliation against Saudi Arabia for the “sake of Iraq’s highest interests.”

Note: On 29 July, in response to late July Iraqi Shia militia attacks against Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia launched joint strikes targeting Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in Iraq, killing more than 20 people. The strikes were in retaliation for likely Shia militia attacks on Saudi Arabia.

6 August:

Key Judgement: Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes are weakening U.S. coercive credibility and narrowing its strategic options, while Tehran is pressuring regional governments to oppose further escalation. Reported shortages of U.S. interceptors and precision-guided munitions appears to be affecting Washington’s operational tempo. Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, although Iran or Iran-aligned forces may have attacked two vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and another in the Gulf of Aden over the past several days. Meanwhile, discussions over maritime access are becoming increasingly detailed. Iranian officials claim that Tehran and Oman have agreed on the geographic coordinates of a proposed shipping route, while reporting indicates Iran is seeking transit fees and substantial administrative authority over vessels entering the Gulf.

Reporting:

• Bloomberg reports that, as part of the proposed Iran-Oman consortium agreement, Iran is seeking to bar U.S. and Israeli vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz while requiring “hostile countries” to pay compensation before being granted access.

• President Trump says he is “extremely happy” with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and that Iran is “going very well”.

• The Washington Post reports that Trump’s frustration boiled over at a recent Camp David meeting and he “demanded answers” from Hegseth over extreme missile shortages.

• Iran state broadcaster IRIB says that Iran’s parliament is reviewing an initial text of agreement that bans “vessels from hostile countries” from traveling through the SoH.

• Eight of the world’s largest shipping associations in a letter to the UN Secretary-General urge the United Nations to oppose tolls in the SoH.

• Windward reports that 12 vessels transited the SoH in the past 24 hours.

• The Houthis claim attacks on two Saudi oil tankers near Yanbu port in the Red Sea and in the Gulf of Aden (unconfirmed).

• Khori Hiwa (Sun of Hope), a newly formed armed group in western Iran says that its fighters clashed with Iranian government forces in West Azerbaijan province, and claim to have inflicted casualties.

• Reuters reports that Iran made a concerted diplomatic push to warn Gulf states that Tehran would hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convinced Trump to end U.S. strikes on Iran and seek a diplomatic solution. The message was delivered after Trump, on 28 July, threatened to strike Iran’s energy network and infrastructure.

• CBS reports that at least 12 states in the U.S. report cyberattacks on water systems possibly linked to Iran-backed hackers.

• The Independent reports that Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian stated in an interview on state television that interaction with Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was “very difficult”.

• Al Jazeera reports that Iranian security forces and religious morality police have intensified restrictions, arrests, and punishments for people and businesses deemed noncompliant with a wide range of regulations on practices deemed by the state as immoral and un-Islamic.

• The Independent reports that disruption of supplies through the SoH are leaving millions vulnerable to hunger in Yemen.

• Iran says 21 Mossad ‘mercenaries’ were arrested for spying on the Iranian military.

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5 August:

• Trump says there was “all-day negotiation” with Iran the day before, characterizing the talks as positive while threatening to hit Iran “really hard” if a deal is not reached.

• Trump denies media reports of depleted weapons stockpiles saying the U.S. has massive amounts of munitions and that the “leakers” behind the “treasonous statements” are being hunted down.

• Qatar says mediators are making progress in efforts to end the war.

• Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman says that Oman and Iran are close to finalizing an agreement on an agreed upon shipping route for the SoH, saying “The geographic coordinates of the route envisioned by both sides have been agreed upon.”

• Reuters reports that the proposed Oman-Iran deal would give Iran control over ships entering the Gulf through the SoH, and that, according to a senior Iranian official, Iran is seeking transit fees between 5% and 7%.

• Media reports indicate that vessel transits in the SoH and Bab el-Mandeb continue to be low.

• UKMTO reports two possible shipping attacks, on off the coast of Oman, the other in the Gulf of Aden:

• Bloomberg reports that Iran-linked cyberattacks against US water infrastructure are expanding and ongoing, with security agencies warning that the digital operations are increasing and shifting from sporadic incidents to localized disruptions.

• Bloomberg reports that Iran is considering allowing European countries to carry out mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal is being discussed as a compromise to restore normal maritime traffic and restart peace talks between the US and Iran.

4 August:

• Trump calls Iranian leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” on social media and declared that it was Iran’s final opportunity to sign an agreement.

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that talks with Oman regarding safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz were progressing positively.

• Iranian media reported on August 4 that an “unknown projectile” hit a Greek-owned cargo ship, MINOAN PIONEER, off the Omani coast near the strait’s entrance.

• Reuters reports that the U.S. has used ‘virtually all’ of its long-range precision missiles during the Iran War.

• Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent says “We are in talks with the Iranians...There is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict.” Oil prices drop and the stock market surged following his statement.

3 August:

Key Judgement: Iran appears increasingly confident that its ability to threaten Strait of Hormuz (SoH) shipping and regional infrastructure gives it substantial bargaining leverage. Washington’s repeated retreats from threatened major strikes are weakening U.S. coercive credibility and narrowing its strategic options, while Iran is actively mobilizing regional opposition to further escalation. Reported shortages of U.S. interceptors and precision-guided munitions may be influencing Washington’s operational tempo as the Trump administration continues to alternate between threatened escalation and renewed diplomacy. Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued following Washington’s decision to postpone threatened large-scale strikes against Iran. Commercial traffic through the SoH remains very low, while Tehran continues to signal that it intends to retain a central role in determining access through the waterway. Contrary to President Trump’s claim that new talks are imminent, Iranian officials deny that direct negotiations with Washington are underway and are instead emphasizing Omani-mediated discussions. Iran’s simultaneous outreach to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey appears intended to mobilize regional pressure against renewed U.S. escalation, while reported Saudi concerns suggest that Washington’s regional partners may increasingly be constraining its military freedom of action.

Watching: Despite the lull in fighting, the situation remains volatile, and a sudden clash in the Strait could trigger another cycle of reciprocal regional escalation. Additional reporting on a possible U.S.-Qatari compromise under which vessels would enter the SoH through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters—particularly who would authorize, monitor, and enforce access. Signs that regional political pressure is increasingly constraining Washington’s military freedom of action. Further Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea that further disrupt global energy markets and maritime trade. Expanded involvement by external actors, particularly China or Ukraine, could widen the conflict even further.

• Amir al-Mousawi, a former Iranian diplomat in contact with current Iranian negotiators, tells the NYTs that Trump sent Iran a message vowing a severe attack on Iranian infrastructure if the Iranians did not restart negotiations. The Iranians refused, unless Washington returned to the previous MoU.

• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says that there are currently no negotiations underway with the U.S. but that there has been progress in talks with Oman to secure a passage through the SoH.

• UKMTO reports that a vessel off the coast of Oman was hit by an unknown projectile.

• Maritime traffic in the SoH continues to be low:

• Al Jazeera publishes the following timeline on recent Iranian-Omani talks:

• The IRGC claims that is shot down an MQ-9 Reaper drone flying over the SoH.

• Reuters reports that six-Saudi flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden in recent days and headed to southern Africa, as a result of the Houthi threat to target Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.

• Iran executes two alleged Israeli spies.

• Windward says that 22 Chinese-linked vessels have transited the Bab el-Mandeb since 20 July.

• The seven members of OPEC+ decide to increase oil production by approximately 188,000 barrels per day.

• Reuters reports that manufacturing activity in China slowed in July as the war in the Middle East weakened demand and raised costs.

• Brent crude down on news of possible renewed U.S.-Iranian negotiations:

2 August:

• Trump once again calls off major attacks on Iran, saying in a Truth Social posting: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off on any attack.” He also claims that a deal on the SoH is “imminent” and new talks with Iran will begin on Monday.”

• The Saudi Press Agency reports that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump discussed developments in the region and their regional and international repercussions. MBS reportedly raised concerns about Trump’s plans to escalate strikes on Iran.

• Israeli media (N12) reports that Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi agreed to a US- and Qatari-formulated proposal in which vessels would enter the Persian Gulf through Iranian waters and exit through Omani waters.

• Iraqi media says a drone attack targeted the Peshmerga’s 70th Brigade HQS in Sulaimaniyah, Iraq.

1 August:

• President Trump threatens to launch a new attack on Iran, but U.S. officials say that he could halt the attacks if there is progress on the diplomatic front.

• Axios reports that Trump is seriously considering hitting Iranian energy targets in the next few days. The strikes could involve the Israeli military, which would likely lead to Iranian attacks on Israel.

• Multiple sources tell CBS News that the U.S. and Israel are planning a huge bombing campaign against energy infrastructure targets in Iran.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi holds separate phone calls with Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. During the discussions Araghchi reportedly warned against any U.S. military action, reiterating that Iran was willing to respond decisively to any attack against its sovereignty or national security.

• Iranian Major General Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s top joint military command, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, says that countries in the region should reconsider their alignment with the U.S. and that any country serving as the U.S.’ “defensive shield” will be “consumed by the flames of war.”

• The Washington Post reports that Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the head of U.S. European Command sent written notification to senior Pentagon officials saying that without another Navy destroyer he will be forced to choose defense of the United States “homeland” over that of Israel. U.S. naval destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have been employed as part of Israel’s defense for many years, with European Command central to the mission.

• Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref says that Iran is preparing supplies for the next two years and that the government is planning for “even the worst conditions.”

• Kuwaiti officials say they intercepted Iranian drones that were targeting “vital installations.”

• UKMTO reports that a tanker located 21 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, reported an explosion and large splash close to the vessel:

• A Houthi spokesman claims that the Houthis have forced eight Saudi oil tankers to change course in the Red Sea.

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19 August:

Key Judgement: Economic coercion and control of maritime access increasingly define the campaign’s principal lines of operation. Commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) continues to be extremely low, while conflicting reporting suggests a possible increase in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route. Iran continues to attack SoH shipping and threaten U.S.-Gulf allies as it seeks to preserve its maritime leverage. Washington’s strategy has shifted increasingly toward economic coercion amid apparent limits on its ability or willingness to resolve the conflict through military force, but continued Iranian attacks against commercial shipping could trigger a U.S. military response.

Supporting Assessment: Regional military activity remains relatively subdued, as the U.S. has not responded militarily to repeated Iranian attacks against commercial shipping in the SoH. Available reporting provides conflicting indications about the extent to which vessels are shifting to the U.S.-backed Omani route, in part because an unknown number of vessels are reportedly transiting with their transponders disabled. If use of the Omani route is increasing, Iran could intensify attacks against vessels using it in an effort to preserve its control over maritime access, increasing the risk of another U.S.-Iranian escalatory cycle. Recent reporting also indicates that Iranian hardliners continue to consider broader escalation options in the event of additional U.S. strikes, including attacks against U.S. military assets in Europe or subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH. Meanwhile, recent Houthi attacks around the Bab el-Mandeb, including the reported disruption of operations at the port of Mokha, increase the risk that pressure on regional maritime access could expand beyond the SoH.

Reporting:

• CNN reports that 80 percent of traffic through the SoH in the past two weeks passed through the U.S.-backed Omani-designated route, leading the network to conclude that Iran has lost significant control of the SoH. Merchant vessels reportedly are relying on safety assurances and escorts coordinated by U.S. forces patrolling the waterway.

• Offering a different assessment, The Wall Street Journal reports that only two of the 255 ship crossings through the SoH in August have openly used the Omani route, with an undisclosed number of vessels using the route with their transponders turned off.

• The same article notes that in July the U.A.E. actually increased its oil production and was chartering ships to make “shuttle-runs” to transfer oil to vessels waiting just outside the Strait. In contrast, Iraqi, Kuwaiti and Saudi production during the same time was down at least 20 percent.

Note: It is possible the number of smaller, shuttle-run ships transiting the SoH dark accounts for the uptick in vessels using the U.S.-backed Omani route.

• Citing two people close to the Iranian government, the Financial Times reports that Iran has considered striking US military assets in Europe if the U.S. further escalates the war. According to the report, Iranian forces had assessed potential strikes on US assets in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refueling aircraft. Cyprus, where a British air base was hit by a drone in March, was also cited as a potential target. Iranian forces have separately examined the possibility of targeting subsea fiber-optic cables in the SoH in the event of further escalation, the report said.

• The U.A.E. announces that it is imposing an indefinite trade embargo against Iran. The U.A.E. was the largest seller of imported goods to Iran prior to the war, with one-third of Iran’s imports coming from the Emirate.

• Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that the U.S. is seeking an “honorable exit” from the Middle East and touts the “new regional order.”

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with U.A.E. National Security Advisor Shaykh Tahoon bid Zayed al Nahyan about regional security issues.

• Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami criticizes those in Iran who believe “life and survival lie in war.”

Note: Khatami is a moderate, and his willingness to speak publicly suggests that opposition to the recent hardliner ascent persists within Iran, though it is likely constrained by the war and the threat of regime repression.

• Ali Abdollahi, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, warns Gulf states assisting the U.S. military, saying, nothing is “hidden from our eyes.”

• The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon is weighing a smaller U.S. military presence in the Gulf once the war with Iran ends.