When a player unexpectedly struggles—or fares well—in April, this reminder plays on loop in the minds of realists. In plenty of instances, this reminder rings true. A small sample size is often the culprit of misjudgment. For many reasons, Caleb Durbin has been the latest victim. Durbin had a miserable start to the 2026 campaign, and since then, it seems like the baseball world moved on to other stories. But hang on just a moment. We can’t leave Durbin out to dry for a couple bad months in a league that plays 162 games.

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First, however, it’s appropriate to provide some context. 2025 was nothing short of a breakout campaign for the then-25-year-old rookie. With the Brewers, Durbin’s speed and defensive abilities shined to the tune of 18 stolen bases and 5 defensive runs saved at 3B. His bat was around league average, hosting a 105 wRC+ over 136 games, but his 9.9% strikeout rate was the 5th lowest among all qualified hitters. Using old school tools: making contact, swiping bags, and defending well, Durbin earned a solid 2.6 fWAR on the year.

His swing metrics play a huge role in his great contact ability. Statcast calculates the maximum attainable exit velocity for balls in play, using pitch velocity and the speed of a swing. Swings that garner at least 80% of their maximum exit velocity are considered “squared-up.” In 2025, 33.9% of Durbin’s swings were squared-up, good for 95th percentile in baseball. Despite his 85 mph average exit velocity and 68 mph swing speed (4th and 6th percentile, respectively), his squared-up rate tells us he made the most with what he had. Since they started tracking bat speed (2023), only 16 players had both a slower bat speed and average exit velocity than Durbin in 2025. Just 2 of the 16 notched a higher OPS than 2025 Durbin’s .721 (one of which was 2026 Caleb Durbin, the other being 2025 Jacob Wilson).

This past offseason, the Boston Red Sox clearly saw potential here. In February, Boston acquired him, along with Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, and a 2026 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from Milwaukee in exchange for Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan, and David Hamilton. I could write an entire separate piece on Harrison’s incredible 2026 in the Brewers starting rotation, and Drohan is no slouch either.

Durbin, meanwhile, was slashing a meager .183/.250/.280 (45 wRC+) through the end of May with the Sox. Boston, a city notorious for its—shall we say harshness—towards its struggling athletes, voiced justifiable criticism at their new third baseman. Adding insult to injury, the Red Sox were 8 games under .500 and last place in the AL East at that point.

Everything has since taken a complete 180-degree turn. Come June, Durbin caught fire. He entered the month with 1 home run and 4 stolen bases. He added 6 bombs and 5 steals in June alone. That same month, he slashed .326/.359/.605 (162 wRC+). Only 10 of 171 qualified hitters had a higher fWAR in June than Durbin. He didn’t stop there. Since the beginning of July: .293/.394/.440, 136 wRC+, 4 home runs, 5 steals, and as always with Durbin, great defense at third (his 4 outs above average on the year rank top 11 percent in baseball).

Durbin’s stark turnaround mirrors that of his club’s. Boston is an MLB-best 32-7 since June 25. Their 15 straight wins from July 3 to July 22 tied a Red Sox record that was set during the Truman administration. They have surged from last to 3rd in the American League, and now sit 11 games over .500 with no end in sight to their run. Whether the spark was Durbin’s personal turnaround, magic Tartan Army voodoo, or a combination of both, this is simply an incredible run for both the scrappy, 5’6 third baseman and his team. Frankly, I haven’t seen anything like it. Boston is now comfortably in playoff position, bought heavily and aggressively at the trade deadline, and are now a World Series contender.

But what actually changed for Caleb Durbin? We’ve already established that he’s a contact-heavy guy who doesn’t hit it all that hard. How do we know his extreme success isn’t small-sample-size-induced in its own right?

Since the beginning of June, as Durbin’s production took a sharp increase, a few other underlying metrics have followed suit. While he’s not hitting the ball harder, the quality of contact has risen substantially. Prior to June, Durbin pulled 44% of batted balls, and 56% of his batted balls were grounders. Since then, he’s pulled the ball at a 46% clip, and held a ground ball rate of 40%. In other words, he’s pulling the ball in the air at a much more frequent rate, which would help most players, but particularly those starved of high exit velocities. The impact is even more pronounced for right-handed hitters playing in Fenway Park—Durbin is using the left field green monster to his advantage. Additionally, Durbin was caught up in the worst type of contact: infield fly balls. These turn into outs at such a high rate, they might as well be strikeouts. 25.6% of his fly balls never left the infield before June. Post-June, just 14.7% of his fly balls were infield ones.

All of these changes have culminated in Durbin’s average launch angle surging, as supported by the above graph. Again, if you can’t hit the ball hard, the best thing you can do is make contact often and maximize said contact by pulling it in the air.

Yet another struggle of Durbin’s in the early months of this season was hitting non-fastballs. For a player whose hit tool is such a clear strength, it’s surprising to me that he swung and missed at offspeed and breaking pitches over and over. Pitchers clearly exploited this weakness, and Durbin suffered.

Entering June, his swing-and-miss rate took a dip on breaking balls, followed by a sharp decline in offspeed whiffs in July. The opposing pitcher strategy used to be simple when facing Durbin. Don’t throw him fastballs, and his signature bat control disappears. Now that he makes contact with all sorts of pitches, the strategy becomes much less clear.

The story in Boston this season has been genuinely inspirational, and arguably no player exemplifies this more than Caleb Durbin. His 2.3 fWAR is now projected to pass his 2.6 mark from last year, and he’s already matched his 2025 home run total of 11. An entire city wanted to reverse the trade that brought him there, yet he put his head down and went back to what’s always worked for him.

What can I say? It’s a long season.

Note: all stats are as of games played through 8/9/26

Tyler Mahle to the Braves

Full Trade Details:
ATL receives Tyler Mahle
SF receives Anthony Molina

While the first trade the Giants made wasn’t the most exciting, it certainly made sense. Mahle’s set to become a free agent after this season, so the Giants cashed in and saved $3 million by not having to pay Mahle’s signing bonus. He has a 5.13 ERA on the season, but a 3.79 ERA and 3.62 FIP since returning from his hamstring injury on June 24th (38 IP).

In return, Atlanta sent 24-year-old RHP Anthony Molina to San Francisco. He’s bounced from MLB to AAA for years now, first with the Rockies and then with the Braves. He only pitched 5 innings for Atlanta this year, but holds a 3.64 ERA in AAA over 54.1 IP. He has 9 appearances as a starter in AAA, along with 9 as a reliever, but I see his role in relief long-term. His changeup is running a 43% whiff rate with just an 11% hard hit rate in AAA.

Could they have gotten a tad more for Mahle? Maybe. But I see nothing wrong with this trade, and with an expiring contract, he’s someone they had to deal.

Grade: B

Luis Arraez, Caleb Kilian to the Phillies

Full Trade Details:
PHI receives Luis Arraez, Caleb Kilian
SF receives Ramon Marquez, Marty Gair

Arraez was the Giants’ most valuable trade piece this deadline. Coming into 2026, I didn’t know what to think about him. His contact ability has always been generational, but due to his lack of speed, power, and defense, he shuffled teams for the 3rd time in as many years last offseason. But after all the work he’s put in (shoutout infield defense guru Ron Washington), he finds himself with 11 outs above average, which ranks 2nd among all second basemen. He sits at a 3.7 fWAR this year, already a career high with 2 months to spare. Let’s take a moment to appreciate this—few players have been better Giants than Arraez in recent years.

As for Caleb Kilian, he joins the package as a solid reliever with a few plus pitches. He has team control through 2031, but relievers are volatile, and he’s already 29. The Giants should be ecstatic that they turned a 1-year prove-it deal and a late 20s minor league contract into a high-quality return...

The most noteworthy of said return is right-handed SP prospect Ramon Marquez. The 20-year-old has put up video game numbers in low and high A this year, combining for a 42% strikeout rate, an 8.6% walk rate, and a 23.4% swinging strike rate, all to the tune of a 1.68 ERA. He is the 67th-ranked prospect in all of baseball via FanGraphs, and still has room to grow. Marquez’s changeup is one of the best in the minor leagues. In low-A, an absurd 66% of swings against that pitch resulted in a whiff (whiff data unavailable for high-A). He also throws a sinker and a gyro slider, both of which are plus offerings. Marty Gair is a relief prospect just recently promoted to high-A. Gair struggles with command, but his electric fastball gives his profile plenty of swing and miss.

This is a fantastic return for 2 players with little to no expectations going into 2026. While so much has gone wrong for the Giants this year, their ability to develop both Arraez and Kilian into players who brought in this kind of value on the trade market is something to be proud of.

Grade: A

Robbie Ray to the Padres

Full Trade Details:
SD receives Robbie Ray, cash
SF receives Miguel Mendez, Joniel Hernandez

Without sounding like a broken record, Ray was another expiring contract the Giants succeeded in exchanging. San Francisco was quite lucky to see his value tick up—Ray’s 1.09 ERA since June 16th lowered his season ERA to 3.08. This is despite the underlying metrics working against him. His 4.43 xERA and 4.36 FIP suggest regression is on the way, as does his 21% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate. Among 58 qualified starters this season, Ray is dead last in called plus swinging strike rate (CSW), at 23.4%.

Knowing this, the Giants were smart to include cash in the deal, maximizing their return for an over-performing rental, salaried at $25 million this season. He’s owed a bit less than $8 million for the remainder of 2026, which the Giants and Padres agreed to split the difference on.

Going into 2026, FanGraphs had Miguel Mendez ranked 3rd in the Padres’ system, with Joniel Hernandez ranked 21st. Mendez has powerful stuff, including a carrying fastball that touches triple digits and sits in the upper 90s, and a hard slider with swing-and-miss potential. These pitches have helped the right-hander to a 15.4% swinging strike rate in AA this year. Yet, that slider, along with a less projectable changeup, often struggle to find the zone. A thin (6’2, 165 lbs) pitcher with a fast arm and recoil in his delivery generally doesn’t spell innings eater. Especially given that he’s 24, I see a high-leverage reliever. His fastball-slider combo will play well in short spurts, and the Giants could fast-track him to help the team in 2027.

Hernandez, a 17-year-old shortstop who the Padres signed for $1.4 million this winter, is an intriguing high-variance prospect. He’s fared well in the DSL this year, walking more than striking out and slashing .303/.424/.503 in 41 games. He’s a good athlete with arm strength, good fielding motions, and projectable power. The swing-and-miss tendencies are real, but he’s a toolsy player with plenty of room to grow.

This is a good return for a pitcher like Robbie Ray; the Giants were never getting a top 100 name in this trade. A pitching prospect with more starter-like qualities would be nice, but this is about as much value as you can get for Ray.

Grade: A-

Heliot Ramos to the Yankees

Full Trade Details:
NYY receives Heliot Ramos
SF receives Henry Lalane, Kaeden Kent

Ramos won’t be a free agent until after the 2029 season and has always hit lefties well (133 career wRC+ vs. LHPs, 95 vs. RHPs). He hits the ball hard (85th percentile in hard hit rate this year), but strikes out quite a bit and doesn’t walk much. His defense is spotty, but he’s shown some improvement this year (see tweet below). Considering the team control, the Giants didn’t need to give up Ramos, but he’ll be 27 in September and seems to have reached his ceiling. He’s arbitration eligible after this season, so not having to worry about pay increases for a solid but flawed player is a good thing.

Starting pitcher Henry Lalane has played well in low and high A this season. Across his 78 combined innings (15 games started), he posted a 2.77 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, and 8% walk rate. The 22-year-old lefty entered 2026 as the Yankees 16th ranked prospect on FanGraphs. His secondaries include a curveball and a changeup, holding a 62% and 46% whiff rate on each, respectively. His fastball sits low to mid 90s, and might be his weakest pitch. The 6’7, 211-pound Lalane has plenty of upside, and should be developed as a starter, despite notable relief risk.

Kaeden Kent, a 22-year-old middle infielder, was picked in the 3rd round out of Texas A&M in last year’s draft. His profile is highlighted by a strong arm, good speed (20 steals in 24 attempts at high-A this year), and an ability to avoid strikeouts (9% swinging strike rate). His range at short isn’t great, and he could wind up at third base due to his arm. His left-handed bat has him hitting .302 this year, with the potential to grow into some power.

The key question when trading a guy like Heliot Ramos is whether the prospects justify giving up a player with team control. The answer seems to be yes. Lalane has upside, and Kent has a higher floor. With the Giants more than a player away from competing, dealing a corner outfielder who’s reached his potential makes sense. Grab value while you can before arbitration hits.

Grade: A-

Erik Miller, Carlos Gutierrez to the Red Sox

Full Trade Details:
BOS receives Erik Miller, Carlos Gutierrez
SF receives Marcelo Mayer

The Giants made a few great trades this deadline, but this one tops them all. The story with Miller is all too familiar: great stuff without much of an idea of where it’s going. He holds a 32% strikeout rate and a 15% walk rate this year and has pitched to a 2.76 ERA. It’s telling that 5 other relievers on the Giants (Keaton Winn, Dylan Smith, Matt Gage, Caleb Kilian, Sam Hentges) have a higher average leverage index when entering the game than Miller. Like Ramos, he’s arbitration eligible following this season, and will become a free agent post-2029.

Carlos Gutierrez, a 5’9, 21-year-old corner outfield prospect, does plenty of things well without anything standing out as very good or very poor. He draws walks, has good speed, and a good hit tool. Gutierrez may grow into some power as well. This year, he’s slashing .271/.385/.441 in high-A.

Marcelo Mayer is a terrific return here. Entering 2025, Mayer was FanGraphs’ 14th best prospect in all of baseball. He started that year in AAA, showed patience at the plate (10% walk rate), along with flashes of power, and earned a call-up to the big leagues. Since then, he’s been injured for much of his stints in MLB, both last and this year. In those two seasons, he hasn’t played well, struggling to hit breaking balls and slashing a measly .223/.278/.346 over 114 games. What he does boast is a 74.8 mph bat speed in 2026, which ranks in the 87th percentile in baseball. Furthermore, his 2 outs above average at 2nd displays solid range.

The former 4th overall pick is still just 23-years-old, so perhaps a change of scenery will do him well. Even if it doesn’t work out, the Giants bought extremely low on a young middle infielder. This is textbook deadline selling.

Grade: A+

Deadline Winners?

This year’s trade deadline was deemed a seller’s market, and the Giants capitalized immensely. Other teams, namely the Tigers, Orioles, Dodgers, and Cubs, have been floated as other possible deadline winners.

While the Orioles got a good haul for Adley Rutschman and Taylor Ward, winning 0 playoff games in the Rutschman era is certainly a gut punch. I felt the Tigers’ return for Tarik Skubal was underwhelming, and being 2.5 games out of the playoffs with the 2nd best AL run differential doesn’t feel like a time to sell. The Dodgers got the big prize of Skubal, and the Cubs patched up a shaky rotation. Then again, you could argue both LA and Chicago made moves they were expected to make.

Given the aforementioned seller’s market and deadline performance relative to expectations, the Giants can confidently claim to be the 2026 trade deadline winners. They brought in a lot of young talent, shored up an already strong farm system, and got rid of their key impending free agents. It’s been a long, grueling, at times Greek-tragedy-esque season in San Francisco. But if this year’s deadline is any indication, they’re capable of winning something.

Note: all stats are as of the morning of August 4th

Meet Sean Sullivan. This past Friday, he made his major league debut with the Colorado Rockies, throwing 3 scoreless innings before being removed due to illness. It should not be overlooked that those scoreless innings came in the notoriously hitter-friendly Las Vegas Ballpark. Sullivan’s weirdness is a huge reason why Wake Forest made their run to the College World Series in 2023. His peculiar, deceptive approach led him to a 2.45 ERA across 69.2 innings that season, striking out 40% of batters he faced. That season propelled him from a transfer portal dart throw to the 46th overall pick in mere months.

So what about Sullivan is so unique? Why does his fastball sit below 90 mph, and why does he throw it over half the time? How could he possibly be so tricky to hit? Buckle up, everyone. Let’s get weird.

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A Four-Seam So Strange, It Just Might Work

When a pitcher throws a pitch 59% of the time, a deep dive is always necessary.

The table above displays pitch shape metrics from Sullivan’s debut start. The first column that deserves emphasis is his extension (Ext.), which measures, in feet, how far in front of the mound a pitcher releases the pitch. Given that the average MLB pitcher gets 6.5 feet of extension on fastballs, a 7.5 mark for Sullivan is quite distinct. In fact, only 3 pitchers throw fastballs with higher extensions. By getting out in front with such a far reach, Sullivan decreases the distance between his release point and the opposing hitter. This causes pitches to appear slightly faster than they really are, which helps Sullivan’s 87 mph fastball mightily.

Compellingly, Jacob Misiorowski and his 100 mph fastball also land around 7.5 feet of extension. A huge reason why Misiorowski’s fastball is so good—aside from the obvious—is vertical approach angle (or VAA, another column in the table). Essentially, VAA measures the vertical angle at which a pitch crosses home plate. For four-seam fastballs, pitchers generally try to live on the extremes of VAA to create deception, preferring to throw either incredibly flat or incredibly steep fastballs for hitters to swing under or over, respectively.

Misiorowski’s is -3.8 degrees, and MLB’s average is -4.7 degrees. Keep in mind that even half a degree is incredibly meaningful when interpreting this metric. While Sullivan’s four-seam VAA is nothing to write home about, sitting around -5 degrees, a flat VAA fastball was his biggest key to success in that magical 2023 season at Wake Forest.

Particularly when so many hitters are trying to lift the ball in the air and swing steeper, a flatter fastball acts as a perfect counter. Does more velocity play up the benefits of an extreme VAA? Absolutely. Misiorowski is the perfect example of that. But all extreme VAAs are good VAAs. As Rockies’ President of Baseball Operations Paul DePodesta champions an analytics-heavy approach for the organization, I expect Sullivan’s VAA to improve immensely.

Two more metrics from the table really stand out when discussing the extremes that Sullivan’s fastball lives on. Among the 664 pitchers with at least an inning of work this season, Sullivan’s four-seamer is the 6th slowest in baseball. Furthermore, we must draw our attention to the rightmost column of the data table, release side. This measures how far (in feet) a pitcher’s release point is from the center of the mound. Only 6 left-handers in baseball throw four-seam fastballs with more extreme release sides than Sullivan. 2 feet is the league average, but Sullivan gets 3.6 feet. This is another key aspect of Sullivan’s deceptiveness; hitters have a tough time seeing pitches released that far off to the side.

Looking exclusively at velocity tells a minuscule part of a pitch’s story, as evidenced by Sean Sullivan and his mystifying four-seam. Does an 87 mph fastball need a lot of help to work at the major league level? Absolutely. But all the oddities we’ve discussed just might be the help it needs.

Evaluating Sullivan’s Other Pitches

As we move to discuss the other three offerings in Sullivan’s arsenal, I’ve provided another visual to digest from his Friday outing. This movement plot displays all four pitches Sullivan throws, with each dot representing one pitch. The y-axis tells us how much rise or drop each pitch had, and the x-axis tells us how much the pitch broke in either horizontal direction (for lefties, negative horizontal break indicates arm-side movement, while positive numbers indicate glove-side movement).

At first glance, Sullivan’s changeup is quite different from the MLB average. It generates 5 fewer inches of horizontal break and 4 fewer inches of drop compared to the average left-handed changeup. Prior to Sullivan being called up, this pitch fooled AAA hitters constantly to the tune of a 42% chase rate and 35% whiff rate. The theme here for Sullivan remains consistent: it works, it’s weird, and it may work because it’s weird.

Down in AAA, Sullivan’s sweeper and cutter had 16% and 10% whiff rates, respectively. Not great. Yet this visual provides a good reason for why he throws a cutter in the first place. Imagine all those green cutter dots disappeared from the graph. There’d be a massive gap between the four-seam/changeup area and the sweeper. Thus, hitters would easily distinguish between the former and the latter. The four-seam and changeup look nothing like the sweeper, but if they all somewhat resemble a cutter, that cutter acts as a bridge between Sullivan’s other 3 offerings. It doesn’t have to be a great pitch; it simply keeps hitters guessing.

Unlike the cutter, the sweeper actually has some promise in a vacuum. It breaks 3.6 more inches than the MLB average, and regularly induced weak contact in the minor leagues (.277 xwOBAcon in AAA, .369 is the MLB average).

Final Thoughts

Oftentimes, the best pitchers know how to zig when others zag. It really is about being deceptive in the form of living on the extremes. As clearly emphasized throughout this piece, Sean Sullivan is weird. This is to be encouraged. Keep Sean Sullivan weird!

Guess what else is weird. Coors Field! The home of the Colorado Rockies, where Sullivan hopes to start half his games, is the definition of extreme. The high altitude causes balls to fly and severely inflates hitting metrics. Thus, the Rockies have always struggled with acquiring and developing quality pitchers.

And wait, where did Sullivan pitch 3 scoreless innings in his debut? That’s right. A home run happy stadium in Las Vegas. In such pro-hitter environments, where normal pitchers regress into obscurity, maybe, just maybe, Sullivan’s profile is weird enough that it just might work.

So who does that leave in the mix now? Could a young superstar push for his first major award? Could a teammate pick up Judge where he left off? All five players I’m about to discuss have never won an MVP, and the AL hasn’t seen an MVP not named Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani since 2020. Needless to say, this year’s award is there for the taking, and it will be fascinating to see who wins this wide-open race.

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Yordan Alvarez (DH, HOU)

With the aforementioned dominance of Judge, plus the limit to how much value a designated hitter can have, Yordan Alvarez gets a tad overlooked for the caliber of player he is. Prior to 2025, when injuries limited him to 48 games, Alvarez hit 30+ home runs in 4 straight seasons, slashing .296/.387/.571 (164 wRC+) in that span. This makes it all the more spectacular that 2026 has been his best season yet. He’s currently slashing .311/.427/.639 with a 189 wRC+ while racking up 3.3 fWAR in the process, an impressive achievement for a DH. Oh, did I forget to mention he has a legitimate shot at a triple crown?

It almost doesn’t matter that Alvarez doesn’t play defense because his bat does everything you could ask for. He draws walks, doesn’t strike out much, and absolutely crushes baseballs when he gets his pitch. His average exit velocity of 95 mph is in the top 1% of baseball, and his 76 mph bat speed is in the top 8%. He’s slugging .664, .676, and .511 on fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches, respectively, leaving opposing pitchers with no surefire weakness to exploit. Right now, the Astros are 6 games under .500, but the weakness of the AL puts them just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. If it all keeps up, the AL MVP could certainly be Alvarez’s to lose.

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, KCR)

Since 2023, Bobby Witt Jr. dwarfs the rest of baseball in outs above average (70) among qualified defenders, with the next highest mark belonging to Andrés Giménez (55). Sure, outs above average is a counting stat—that is, the more you play great defense, the higher your total is. But this also speaks to another strength of Witt Jr. In 2023, 2024, and 2025, he totaled 158 games, then 161, then 157. That’s called durability.

This year, Witt Jr. has continued his greatness, slashing .280/.354/.456, and leads all of baseball in sprint speed, outs above average, and fielding run value. This is why he leads all of baseball with a 3.8 fWAR. Pick your poison: his bat, his base running, or his play at shortstop. Bobby Witt Jr. adds value all over the field. He’s even got room to improve, holding a .353 wOBA compared to a .385 xwOBA, aided by a 52% hard hit rate (16th of 160 qualified hitters). The Royals themselves are by far the biggest obstacle between Bobby Witt Jr. and the AL MVP, as they are a disappointing 12 games under .500. Whether or not he wins the award will likely rest on how voters define “most valuable.”

Nick Kurtz (1B, ATH)

Between his 3 seasons at Wake Forest from 2022-24, his impressively brief stint in the minor leagues, and his unbelievable first couple of seasons in MLB, Nick Kurtz has raked everywhere he’s been.

Kurtz’s combination of power and patience is rivaled by few; from April 10 to May 1 of this season, Kurtz went 20 straight games with at least 1 walk. The last hitter to have such a streak was Barry Bonds, notching 20 straight games of his own between 2002 and 2003. This is the beauty of Kurtz’s approach. Even the best power hitters can go on stretches of low output, but by continuing to draw walks, he maintains a perpetual .350 or higher on-base percentage, significantly raising his floor as a hitter. And the ceiling?

This home run perfectly exemplifies who Nick Kurtz is. He’s patient, he waits for his pitch, and before you know it, he’s taken you 442 feet to left center. Kurtz’s exit velocity, barrel rate, bat speed, and walk rate all place him in the top 3% or better this season. If he keeps mashing baseballs, and the A’s keep hanging around a playoff spot, he’ll have a legitimate MVP case, possibly becoming the youngest AL winner since Mike Trout in 2014.

Yandy Díaz (DH, TBR)

Meet the man currently standing between Yordan Alvarez and a possible triple crown. Yandy Díaz has quietly been one of baseball’s most consistent hitters—since 2022, his batting average hasn’t dipped below .281, and has surpassed the .300 mark three times, including this year. His wRC+ was also 135 or better in 4 of those 5 seasons (120 wRC+ in 2024). This year, he’s slashing .325/.399/.537, good for a 159 wRC+.

Díaz’s swing (above) is fascinating. His flat bat path and low attack angle are the culprits of his 49% ground ball rate (MLB average: 44%). This has pluses and minuses. Failing to lift the ball certainly cuts into potential power output and slugging percentage, but his 46.5% hard hit rate translates plenty of ground balls into singles, and thus high batting averages. Having the 9th lowest whiff rate in baseball (13.7%) maximizes this contact-reliant style.

A handful of hitters, namely Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have successfully employed a similar approach. Perhaps while the other hitters mentioned go through the highs and lows synonymous with hitting a baseball, Díaz’s slow, steady consistency could get him across the AL MVP’s finish line. And don’t forget, he’s leading the charge for a 38-25 AL-leading Rays team.

Ben Rice (1B, NYY)

Last but not least is Aaron Judge’s teammate, expected to pick up where the 3-time MVP left off. Ben Rice arguably looks up to the task. The Dartmouth product is slashing .304/.400/.641 with 18 home runs (tied for 3rd in the AL), and his batted ball metrics have been superb for some time now. Rice constantly hits the ball hard, in the air, and to the pull side.

Rice’s swing decisions and ability to draw walks should also be praised. Only Rice and Yordan Alvarez are slugging at least .600 with 30+ walks in 2026. Defensively, he doesn’t quite have a home, but with that bat, first base and DH will more than suffice. Not only is his team 2nd in the American League standings, it’s also the New York Yankees. Not to say the MVP is a publicity award, but it definitely doesn’t hurt Rice’s case. His bat has been more than impressive in the early stages of his career. Should he continue his great season with what could end up as the best team in the AL, Rice will have a clear path to MVP consideration.

If the season ended today, my money would be on Alvarez to secure the AL MVP award. But the beauty of this season is that all five of these guys truly have a case, and none of them has a completely spotless resume. While we may not be spoiled with historic seasons from Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh this go around, it’s unquestionable that we have a captivating MVP race on our hands.

One of the first and most influential findings of baseball’s data revolution was that pitchers tend not to have control over balls put in play. Their opponents’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) often regresses around .300. Generally, BABIPs lower than .300 are chalked up to luck rather than skill. This is the philosophy behind FIP, a stat that only factors in strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit-by-pitches. These are what pitchers can control. These metrics are stable year to year. This is why FIP is a much more predictive metric than ERA, which can fluctuate wildly in any given season.

This is where Justin Wrobleski comes in. The Dodgers’ lefty holds a 2.87 ERA across 62.2 innings pitched in 2026, yet only strikes out 16% of hitters he faces. His FIP, xFIP, and xERA (3.41, 4.54, 3.85, respectively) all suggest regression, as does his .237 BABIP. Then again, baseball is results-driven. A 2.87 ERA is a 2.87 ERA no matter how you slice it. And surely one of the most advanced organizations in baseball wouldn’t continuously trot out a pitcher they don’t trust. So what’s really going on here?

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What I Like

Let’s start with some positives about Wrobleski. His command is quite good — he holds a 5.6% walk rate (tied for 13th among 69 qualified starters) and a 112 location+ (100 is average). He’s also been an innings-eater this season, going 7 or more innings in 4 of his 9 starts, and going 6+ innings in all but one of his last 8 starts.

Wrobleski’s a cerebral player, too. He understands it’s better to use FIP instead of ERA for self-evaluation. He likes going deep into games, which is valuable, but also knows when to balance that approach with more swing and miss. Going into his final start of this May, he had a 4.91 ERA on the month with a .301 BABIP. Regression was catching up to him. But he ended the month nicely with a 7-inning start against the Phillies, where he struck out 9, walked none, and gave up 1 hit (a home run). All 9 strikeouts came on his fastball, which averages 93 mph this year but routinely touched 96 in that start. Clearly, he saw what was going on and made the necessary adjustments.

But while these all signal good attributes from a starting pitcher, there are two sides to the Wrobleski coin.

What I Dislike

We’ve touched on the low strikeout numbers, and these stem from a 17.4% whiff rate, which is dead last among qualified pitchers. None of his individual pitches generate many whiffs either. Wrobleski’s four-seam fastball, which he throws 51% of the time, holds a 19.9% whiff rate. He throws a slider 33% of the time, only generating a whiff on 18.8% of swings. Generally speaking, when you throw two pitches 84% of the time, neither of which consistently miss bats, your approach isn’t sustainable. None of the 5 offerings he throws on the other 16% of pitches generate whiffs either.

The movement profiles of his four-seam and slider are also underwhelming. The fastball isn’t particularly deceptive, holding average marks in both vertical and horizontal movement, and the slider breaks just 3.6 inches horizontally (about 1 inch less than the average lefty’s slider).

To make matters worse, a good chunk of Wrobleski’s negative regression is likely to come from the long ball. His terrific 0.57 HR/9 is severely inflated by a 4.7 home run to fly ball ratio (most pitchers stabilize around 8-12 in this metric). Additionally, the ball tends to carry in his home ballpark in Los Angeles, especially during the summer months.

This would all be perfectly fine if he induced frequent ground balls—perhaps the only sustainable method of being a good pitcher without strikeouts—but he doesn’t. He also doesn’t give up consistent weak contact in general. His 41% hard hit rate and 7.2% barrel rate are both middle of the pack at best. Regardless, most pitchers can’t replicate weak contact year after year, and barrel and hard hit rates are not nearly as predictive for pitchers as they are for hitters.

Past Examples of Success?

Justin Wrobleski’s profile is polarizing to say the least, but it’s not completely unheard of. Since 2015, 11 other pitchers have had seasons with strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) at 6 or lower (Wrobleski’s is 5.74) with an ERA of 3.75 or better (minimum 20 games started). The lowest ERA of those 11 guys was Wade Miley’s 3.14 mark in 2023. Notably, no pitcher shows up on this list twice, meaning each of these seasons can be treated more like lucky one-offs than genuine, repeatable skill.

Extending the time period further, however, paints a different picture. 143 seasons from starting pitchers meet the aforementioned criteria since 2000. So while only 11 such seasons occurred in the past 10 years (excluding 2020 due to the games started minimum), 132 occurred in the 15 years prior. Furthermore, from 2000 to 2014, the list saw 18 repeat offenders, including Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle, both of whom had more than solid careers.

But let’s think like statisticians here. In 2000, 54% of qualified pitchers had a K/9 above 6. In 2025, 98% of pitchers did. Like most metrics, strikeouts are only as valuable as the percentile of pitchers they place you in. While 6 K/9 was an actual achievement back then, it’s become almost a requirement. Whether it be hitters taking more aggressive, home-run-hunting approaches, the exponentially rising talent pool of arms, or the ultimate chase for velocity, the game has changed a lot in the last quarter-century. Don’t let the 2000-2014 time period fool you. The last 10 full seasons have clearly shown us what types of pitchers sustain their success.

Final Verdict

Justin Wrobleski may have a good start tomorrow. In fact, he probably will. He might even keep his ERA below 3 throughout the entire season. Despite their rarity, these seasons do happen. And if that does happen with Wrobleski, he should be lauded for it. At the end of the day, pitchers need to prevent runs by any method imaginable.

Over the course of his entire career? I doubt he’ll keep getting away with this. To succeed beyond 2026, Wrobleski must continue tapping into his intellect and his understanding of the analytical side of baseball. Maintaining a 96 mph fastball always helps. He doesn’t need to strike everyone out, either. Continuing to ride his command into the 7th inning or later is always valuable, and even 8 K/9 would make the Dodgers feel more comfortable than his current 5.74. Adjusting and tinkering will certainly have to come to replicate Wrobleski’s 2026 results. But for better or for worse, he and his team will almost certainly know what adjustments to make.

Statistics Being Statistics?

It is said that if you give an infinite number of monkeys an infinite number of typewriters over an infinite period of time, one monkey will eventually write Hamlet. In other words, randomness is real. Even the least likely events don’t have a probability of zero, so they’ll almost surely happen between now and infinity. Perhaps Ward’s 2025 was many standard deviations better than expected. And before you say comparing a Shakespeare-writing monkey to Taylor Ward hitting 36 home runs is mean-spirited, remember the Angels’ unofficial mascot is the Rally Monkey. Maybe it’s a compliment! I digress.

For every home run, Baseball Savant measures whether that home run would’ve gone out in different ballparks. Each season, it displays how many homers a player would’ve hit had they played all games in a certain stadium. For Ward, his 36 seems a bit lucky. Only Sutter Health Ballpark, the temporary home of the Athletics, would’ve seen Ward with a higher total: 38. Every other ballpark projects Ward lower than the 36 mark. If Ward played all his games at Chase Field, he’d have just 21 home runs, the lowest of any stadium. Furthermore, his increase in slugging percentage (.426 in 2024, .475 in 2025) was accompanied by a decrease in expected slugging (.466 in 2024 to .450 in 2025).

Plenty of players improve in certain areas and experience a power surge, but a lot of these areas bring us no closer to the answer on Taylor Ward. Increase in bat speed? Nope, it’s hovered around the 15th percentile since MLB started tracking it. Did he start pulling a ton of fly balls? Also no. Hard hits? Barrel rate? Both stayed relatively constant. There’s more to this story, but it only gets weirder.

More Factors at Play

Let’s start with the most straightforward evidence. Ward’s career high ISO heading into 2025 was .192, which he set in 2022. His mark in 2025 ballooned to .247. Additionally, while his pulled fly ball rates didn’t change significantly, his overall fly ball rates experienced a shift. In 2023, Ward lifted the ball in the air on 59% of his batted balls. Above the 56% league average, but paling in comparison to his 68% fly ball rate in 2024, followed by 66% in 2025.

Here comes the real oddity: Ward’s plate discipline. In 2025, Ward decided to be incredibly selective with his swings. His 43% swing rate in 2024 dropped to 38% in 2025. But wait, Ward has always been known for getting on base, drawing walks, and not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. Thus, interestingly, this drop in swing rate was most pronounced for pitches inside the zone. His zone swing rate in 2025 fell 11 percentage points compared to the season prior (65%, 54%, respectively). This brought his whiff rate down a couple of percentage points from the season prior, but raised his called strike rate from 16% in 2023 to 19% in 2024 to 23% in 2025. His overall strikeout rate, 26.4%, was the highest it’d been since the shortened 2020 season, where Ward only played in 34 games.

The most eye-popping change was in his swing rate on meatballs (pitches smack in the middle of the strike zone). The MLB average in meatball swing rate is 76%. Ward sat comfortably above that mark for most of his career and was at 78% in 2024. This dropped all the way down to 67% in 2025. Why would he be so passive on the easiest pitches to hit?

This graphic really hammers the point home. On pitches Ward saw in the heart of the plate, he had a +24 run value on his swings, negated by a -19 run value on takes. We also see that he swung at below-average rates in all 4 pitch regions last year, which earned him a lot better returns on chase and waste pitches.

To answer the question of why so passive, we must consider the tradeoff. Again, swinging less brings less value on strikes, but plenty of value on balls. Moreover, by not swinging as much, Ward ensures that when he does swing, it’s a pitch he really likes. Opposing pitchers have to adjust their strategy to his tendencies, so they’ll throw more pitches in the zone. More pitches to hit. In that sense, Ward’s adjustments in plate discipline mirror the ideas of game theory.

Force the pitcher to beat you in the zone. Will it result in more called strikes and a passive approach on meatballs? Yes. But will it make Ward all the more ready to send a mistake into the bleachers? Also yes. His selectivity could simply mean he accepted the tradeoff of more backwards K’s for more pop.

Final Verdict

Part of why I’m so fascinated by Taylor Ward is that there’s no straightforward answer. I feel pretty confident in his game-theory-fueled adjustments, particularly in an age where pitchers and hitters have so much info on each other. His patient approach and historical numbers clearly display an ability to draw walks, which will keep his floor relatively high. That being said, not swinging at meatballs enough, along with his slower bat speed and possible ballpark luck, might burn him in the end.

There’s plenty of levers being pulled here, but my gut says he’ll hit around 25-30 home runs in his inaugural season in Baltimore, with most projection systems having him between 23-27 bombs. It’s anyone’s guess, really, but if you’re looking for a fun and complex player to make predictions on, look no further than this 32-year-old outfielder.

For these rankings, we’ll first highlight three honorable mentions in no particular order. Despite not making the cut, these catchers should be lauded for coming close. After all, the difference between the 10th and 11th best is far more arbitrary than the 10th and 14th. I’ll then go through my top 10, starting with the 10th ranked catcher.

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Honorable Mentions

First, Shea Langeliers of the Oaklamento Athletics. Shea has had a great run offensively, belting 60 home runs in the past 2 seasons. His consistent ability to pull the ball in the air helps over-perform his already solid peripherals. Langeliers’s defense leaves a bit to be desired, but it’s gone from bad to serviceable throughout his big-league career. Plus, his 1.89 second pop time last season is 91st percentile in baseball.

Yankees’ backstop Austin Wells also comes to mind, particularly due to his glove. His 12 framing runs last season were 96th percentile, and he was 93rd percentile the season prior. His blocking and control of the run game aren’t otherworldly, which might be notable in the first year of the ABS challenge system. Like Langeliers, his bat is aided by a strong pulled fly ball rate and a ballpark that plays up to that approach.

Lastly, we have a polarizing Marlin, Agustín Ramirez. As a rookie last year he clubbed 21 home runs, flashing elite bat speed and exit velocity at times, and stole 16 bases. Admittedly, his defense was putrid, ranking in the bottom 1% of the league in fielding run value. Ramirez’s biggest issue was trying to frame every pitch, and catchable balls got by him too often. He’s got a strong arm and frames decently well; if he can be coached up on his passed balls issue, we could be looking at a completely different player.

10. Hunter Goodman (COL)

It only took a year for Hunter Goodman to go from a virtual unknown to one of the better catchers in baseball. Goodman played in 144 games last year (104 as a catcher) and hit 31 home runs, 91 RBIs, and slashed .278/.323/.520. His power was fueled by a 25.4% pulled fly ball rate (9 percentage points above the league average), as well as an 83rd percentile bat speed and 97th percentile max exit velocity.

His approach doesn’t come without concern, however. Goodman had a 37% chase rate and whiffed on 32% of his swings last year. This led to a worryingly high strikeout rate (26.3%) and low walk rate (5.7%). Without the safety net of good plate discipline, Goodman’s success relies heavily on batted ball luck. It worked out for him last year with a .331 BABIP, but regress him to the traditional mean of .300 and we’re having a completely different conversation.

On the defensive side we have an interesting story. As a prospect he was seen as an outfielder who “can catch,” but held his own as a backstop last year. His framing, throwing, and blocking were all middle of the pack, with perhaps some improvement to come as he settles into being a full-time catcher. Overall, Goodman’s bat has some question marks, but had a great 2025 and will continue to be aided by Coors Field in half his games. Offensive numbers like his paired with solid defense makes for a top 10 big league catcher.

9. Dillon Dingler (DET)

Dillon Dingler’s defense is great--almost as great as his name--and gives Tigers fans plenty to be excited about. Dingler burst onto the scene in 2025 with 10 blocks above average and 7 framing runs, both ranking in the top 10 percent of baseball. His value behind the dish propelled him to a 4.1 fWAR: a fantastic mark for a rookie, perhaps overshadowed by fellow AL rookie sensation Nick Kurtz.

Fielding is Dingler’s bread and butter, but he isn’t too shabby with the bat either. Last year, he slashed .278/.327/.425, good for a 109 wRC+. Three key points give his offensive profile plenty of variation in future projections. Firstly, Dingler’s BABIP was a staggering .345 last year. This will surely regress towards the mean, and could turn him from an above average hitter to a slightly below average one. This is particularly notable given more of his offensive production comes from hitting for average, not for power (13 HRs in 126 games). Secondly, his .326 wOBA compared to his .351 xwOBA suggests there might be some positive regression to come, acting as a competing force with his negative BABIP regression. This could have a profound impact on his power: Dingler had 12 points of improvement from BA to xBA (.278 vs. .290), compared to 50 points of improvement from SLG to xSLG (.425 vs. .475). Lastly, he hit the ball at ideal launch angles 42.3% of the time. Among all MLB hitters with 400 or more PAs, only Jackson Merrill and Mike Trout fared better in this metric. Even the slightest improvement in exit velocity will provide great returns on Dingler’s barrel rate.

A lot of factors blur the true talent level of Dingler on offense, and more sample size might be the only way forward. Regardless, his defensive prowess is undeniable, and gives him a high floor in overall production.

8. Drake Baldwin (ATL)

We now transition to another head-turning member of the 2025 rookie class: reigning NL rookie of the year Drake Baldwin. Baldwin’s bat is one of the safest among all catchers. He routinely put up double digit walk rates in the minor leagues, and while it fell to 8.5% in his first big league season, his 15.2% strikeout rate was impressively low. The 24 year old displayed both solid contact rates and quality of contact. He made contact on 83% of swings (76.9% league average) and had a 49.6% hard hit rate, good for 85th percentile in baseball.

Baldwin mashed fastballs, hitting .344 and slugging .625 against 4-seamers, combined with an absurd 61% hard hit rate. Really the only things for him to work on at the plate are hitting offspeed pitches and bringing his walk and chase rates back to the elite level he was at in the minors.

Defensively, Baldwin’s calling card is blocking. His 7 blocks above average put him in the top 10% of baseball, aided by setting up with at least 1 knee down 99% of the time. I’d like to see him improve on his 45th percentile framing and 19th percentile caught steals above average to improve his overall defensive value. That said, he already sits middle of the pack behind the dish, and we know how great he is and will be as a hitter.

7. Gabriel Moreno (ARI)

Apart from injury history and power, there’s a lot to like about Gabriel Moreno’s game. Last year was his best offensive season yet, slashing .285/.353/.433 with a 117 wRC+ across 83 games. While Moreno has never eclipsed 9 home runs in a season (last year’s total), he’s shown a consistent ability to get on base and put the ball in play. Year in and year out he takes walks, doesn’t chase pitches, and doesn’t whiff much.

There might be some untapped potential here as well. In Moreno’s first 3 seasons (2022-24) his barrel rate was 5.4%, his hard hit rate 40.5%, and his pulled fly ball rate never surpassed 7.8% in a season. In 2025, those numbers rose to 7.1%, 43.4%, and 14.6%, respectively. Now, those are still middling marks at best, but far better than what we’re used to seeing from Moreno. The rate of return going from low to average is often higher than from average to great.

Defensively, Moreno has always been solid, and has improved every year since entering MLB. His throwing and blocking have been consistently above average, but the real improvement he’s had is via framing. In 2022 he had 0 framing runs, and -7 in 2023, before improving to 2 in 2024 and 6 (89th percentile) last year. Not only that, but framing runs are a counting stat, meaning it accumulates the more you play. Moreno’s 6 framing runs in 2025 came across just 598 innings, compared to 732 innings in 2024 and 854 in 2023.

Ranking Moreno here is betting on health that simply hasn’t been great thus far in his young career. But the raw skills are there, and given a full season’s work, there should be some improvement in his numbers.

6. Patrick Bailey (SF)

Defense, defense, defense. Patrick Bailey, is that all you’ll ever be? If so, he’s still a pretty great player. In all 3 professional seasons (even in 2023, when he wasn’t called up until late May and played in 97 games) he’s led MLB in fielding run value. Not just catchers, the entire league. It’s not particularly close either - from 2023 to 2025, Bailey’s 79 fielding runs are 29 runs higher than 2nd place Alejandro Kirk. Bailey is, by a wide margin, the best defensive player in all of baseball.

He racks up defensive value from all aspects of catching, but most notably as a framer. His whopping 25 framing runs led all catchers last year. Baseball savant breaks down framing into several different zones (above), and rarely does a catcher see positive value in every single zone. Bailey’s done it in all 3 pro seasons. He was also 3rd last year in caught steals above average. Interestingly, his blocking ability wasn’t great upon entering the bigs, likely due to the trade-off with framing. The more a catcher tries to frame a pitch, the less likely they’ll block it, compared to if they’d been focusing on catching/blocking the pitch the whole way. He’s improved greatly at this since his rookie season, however, going from -9 blocks above average in 2023 to 5 in 2025.

Offensively, there’s really not a whole lot to be excited about, but after hitting 2 home runs (1 inside the park) before September last year, he hit 4 more in the final month of the season. Bailey’s fielding is so off-the-charts good that he doesn’t need to do much at the plate to be a valuable player (4.3 fWAR in 2024, 3.2 in 2025). But his wRC+ dipped to a career-low of 70 last year, and if he stays around that mark he’s not guaranteed a starting job. He doesn’t need to be league-average, even, but getting that number up around 85 solidifies him as a borderline top 5 catcher in baseball, given how terrific he is behind the plate.

5. Adley Rutschman (BAL)

I believe. Do you believe? So much went wrong for the Orioles last season, and Adley Rutschman unfortunately reflected the trend. He slashed just .220/.307/.366 in 90 games while battling injuries to both his obliques. It feels like eons ago when Rutschman catapulted a lowly Orioles squad to 83 wins (31 more than they had the season prior). The switch-hitting catcher amassed 11.1 fWAR in his first two seasons, and there was so much to like about his game. He drew walks, he didn’t strike out much, he didn’t chase nor whiff, he had an OBP north of .360 and flashed some pop for good measure.

I believe Adley can get back to this level, or at least close to it. Since those couple years, he’s experienced some poor BABIP luck: .298 in his first two seasons, .272 in 2024, and .240 last year. His elite plate discipline means his 91 wRC+ from last year is his absolute floor. Plus, oblique injuries are no joke, especially since hitting is a rotational movement.

Rutschman was still a plus defender last year, as well as the season prior. Again, however, his production fell short of his first two big league seasons. His framing took a dip, particularly on low pitches. His blocks above average also took a hit on a per game basis, dropping to 0.03 compared to a 0.11 career average. An interesting note here is that each season, Rutschman has increased the percentage of pitches received with a knee down. In 2022, he had a knee down on just 9% of pitches, which increased to 38%, 65%, and then 95% last year. One has to wonder if his injuries played a role in such a spike, particularly in 2025.

4. Will Smith (LAD)

Will Smith has been consistently good on offense throughout his entire 7 year career, and is a big reason behind the Dodgers’ success during that time period. On the career, he’s slashed .264/.358/.476 with a 128 wRC+. He has a career 10% barrel rate and had a 12% barrel rate last season, helping him hover around 20 home runs year in and year out. He’s also quite durable, playing in 110 games or more in each of the past 5 seasons, not to mention the 50 postseason games he’s played in that span. There’s so much to like about Smith’s offensive profile, which begs the question: why not rank him higher?

During his big league tenure, Smith has been decent at best and rather poor overall on defense. In particular, his -10 framing runs last season put him in the bottom 2 percent of baseball. His -8 framing runs the season prior only hurt his case. Granted, in 2023 his fielding run value was 76th percentile in baseball, but he’s far too inconsistent on defense to trust. The only part of his defensive game that intrigues me is his ability to throw runners out, but this often chalked up to pitchers being quick to the plate. His middling 61st percentile pop time last year points to this further, as well as ranking 33rd among 84 qualified catchers in arm strength.

By no means is it a defensive disaster for Smith, which when paired with his offense certainly makes for a top 5 catcher in baseball. He’s a rare backstop whose bat would play at any position. Simply being a catcher gives him elite value. Yet, when I look at those defensive numbers, I can’t help but find small holes in his game.

3. Alejandro Kirk (TOR)

While Patrick Bailey is far and away the best defender in baseball, Alejandro Kirk often shows up in 2nd place on many defensive metrics. After starting his career slowly behind the plate with -2 and -3 catching runs in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Kirk broke into the positives with 11 catching runs in both 2022 and 2023. This mark has seen even more improvement, rising to 17 in 2024 and 22 last year. His 21 blocks above average in 2025 were way ahead of the next best blocker (Danny Jansen, 14 blocks above average). Kirk also excels at framing, ranking 98th percentile in framing runs last season.

His durability was tested last year, catching 965 innings in the regular season, nearly 200 more than his next highest innings caught in a season. Not to mention the grueling reality of a catcher in a World Series run, particularly when both the ALCS and World Series went to 7 games for Toronto.

After taking a step back on offense in 2023 and 2024, Kirk showed he still has one of the best catching bats in baseball last year, slashing .282/.348/.421 in 130 games. His ability to make contact is highly renowned, striking out on just 11.7% of plate appearances and making contact on 83.6% of swings last year. Those metrics ranked 11th and 26th, respectively, among 145 qualified hitters. He also hit the ball hard at a high rate (50.8%), and has lifted the ball well - seeing a significant dip in his ground ball rates since 2022. It’s hard for a team to ask for more than what Kirk provides from a catcher. Plus, what’s not to love about a 5’8, 245 pound professional athlete?

2. William Contreras (MIL)

A lot has gone right for William Contreras since joining the Brewers, but even more than the two guys before him, his durability really pops off the stat sheet. 141 games played in 2023, 155 in 2024, and 150 in 2025. That’s not something you see too often from a catcher. In those three seasons, Contreras has slashed .276/.362/.441, hit 57 home runs, and amassed a 15 fWAR. Even with his bat taking a slight BABIP-fueled dip last season, his 113 wRC+ is still good. His plate discipline is great, consistently striking out at a 20% clip or lower paired with a double digit walk rate. Speaking of plate discipline, another big thing Milwaukee helped Contreras improve on is chase rate. He chased 29.1% of pitches outside the zone during his Braves tenure, but dropped it down to 24% as a Brewer.

But the most famous aspect of Contreras’s developmental success story is his improvement on defense. In Atlanta, he was a good hitter that could catch. He’s now an even better hitter and a good catcher. The Brewers really hammered home framing with Contreras considering his 93rd percentile framing value in his inaugural season. It’s dropped to 64th percentile, but let’s remember even this level of positive defensive value was completely far-fetched before his Brewers tenure. He’s a solid blocker and thrower, and again, he catches a lot of innings. With all that Contreras offers, there’s only one big leaguer who can top this skillset as a backstop.

1. Cal Raleigh (SEA)

One could argue that Cal Raleigh enjoyed the greatest offensive season by a catcher of all time in 2025. It’s the best I’ve seen at least since 2012 NL MVP Buster Posey. Cal should’ve won an MVP of his own last year, but him and his Big Dumper still captured the hearts of many. His ridiculous stat line included a .247/.359/.589 slash line, with 60 home runs, 125 RBIs, and a 9.1 fWAR. His 60 bombs broke the single season record for a catcher by 12 (Salvador Perez had 48 in 2021). Only Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge, and Shohei Ohtani had higher barrel rates than Raleigh’s 19.5% mark, and only Isaac Paredes hit pulled fly balls at a higher rate than Raleigh (38.4%). When he wasn’t mashing baseballs over the wall, he took walks at a high 13.8% clip. He even stole 14 bases last year, because why not?

Want to talk durability? Raleigh played in 145, 153, and 159 (!!) games in 2023, 24, and 25, respectively. Defense? Last year, he was 88th percentile in fielding run value, 93rd percentile in framing, and has brought at least 7 runs of positive value defensively in every full season he’s played. I guess we could mention his 13th percentile blocks above average if we really wanted to find a hole in his game. But again, he’s a plus defender. His framing and throwing more than make up for the blocking.

Raleigh has always been a top 10 catcher, hovering around 4-5 fWAR from 2022-24, but last year’s explosion firmly earns him the number 1 ranking. Myself and many other baseball fans wish he and the Mariners could’ve made their first World Series in franchise history last year. But his ridiculous season, his wide range of skills, his fantastic nickname, are what baseball’s all about. Plain and simple, Cal Raleigh is the best catcher in baseball.

On November 3, the first day of the 2025-26 college basketball season, Boise State was shocked on its home court by Division 2 Hawaii Pacific. It is not hyperbole to say this was one of the most improbable upsets in the history of the sport. This was Hawaii Pacific’s first-ever win over a D1 program, and Boise State is no pushover. The Broncos made 3 straight tournaments from 2022 to 2024, and nearly made the tournament last season as well. If you’re looking for Hawaii Pacific, you’ll find them in a former strip mall in Honolulu.

It’s not uncommon for D1 schools to play non-D1 opponents early in the season. As you might expect, D1 teams tend to dominate these matchups. About 5 times a season, a D1 school (often one that’s nowhere close to the NCAA tournament) will lose to a non-D1 team, and even then, it’s regarded as an upset. NET, KenPom, and other team ranking systems don’t even factor these games into their formula. Non-D1 games are lower than quad 4 games: they aren’t in a quad to begin with. If it weren’t for player stats and team win-loss records, these games would be statistically non-existent.

And that’s where it gets interesting. Boise State’s loss to Hawaii Pacific won’t factor into many facets of their tournament resume: not their NET, not their KenPom rank, not their records in quads 1-4. While the committee will undoubtably consider this loss on Selection Sunday, the computers won’t. Furthermore, Boise State’s resume is actually quite good thus far. It includes 2 Q1 wins at Butler and neutral vs. Saint Mary’s, and a Q2 win at home vs. Utah Valley. Their only other losses are two quad 1 games against USC and NC State from the Maui Invitational. Plus, they’re 40th in the NET, 45th in KenPom, and are listed as the 5th team out of the tournament on bracket matrix, with plenty of basketball left to play. There’s a chance that they make the tournament, despite their disaster against Hawaii Pacific. Huh?!?!

But let’s hold our horses (or Broncos) for now. Boise State will be a mostly unprecedented situation for the selection committee. Since the start of the 2016-17 season, only 1 team has made the tournament after losing to a non-D1 opponent. That team was Montana State in 2023-24. But that team was a 16-seed play-in team that made the tournament via auto-bid. The only other semi-recent example I could come across was 2008-09 Utah. The Utes lost their inaugural game that season at home to Southwest Baptist, only to go on and make the tournament as a 5-seed. Granted, they too were an auto-bid, having won the Mountain West that year, but given their seeding, they likely had a ticket to the dance regardless.

Another team we can use to gauge Boise State’s chances is 2021-22 Dayton. After starting the season with a win, the Flyers lost 3 straight quad 4 games at home to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay. All 3 of those schools finished the season with a KenPom ranking of 249 or worse. Dayton immediately bounced back, grabbing a quad 2 win over Miami and a quad 1 win over Kansas. They captured more quality wins throughout the season, finishing with a 3-2 Q1 record, 5-4 Q2 record, and entered Selection Sunday 58th in the NET. Yet, those early-season losses came back to bite them, and they were listed as the first team out of the 2022 tournament. While this situation was obviously different from Boise State’s (3 upset losses instead of 1, all three of which factored into their quad records and other resume metrics), both Dayton and Boise State are high-level mid-major programs, and the committee may reference that Dayton team when discussing Boise State this year. The Broncos should be encouraged by the fact that Dayton was so close to the dance despite their horrendous start, but also wary of how slim the margin of error will be.

It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. For Coach Leon Rice, this saying is all too familiar. In the 2021-22 season, Boise State took three Q2 losses in non-conference play, as well as an ugly 46-39 home court loss to Cal State Bakersfield. The latter was a Q4 loss to a school that finished 2-12 in Big West play, 8-19 overall, and 276th in KenPom. Yet, Boise picked itself up, winning 24 of their final 27 regular-season and conference tournament games. They won the Mountain West and were given an 8-seed in that year’s tournament. 1 season later, they started the season 1-2, with those 2 losses both being Q3 games (home vs. South Dakota State and neutral vs. Charlotte). They finished the year 24-9 and earned a 10-seed in the dance. Last season, the Broncos missed the tournament narrowly after a loss in the Mountain West Championship left them in the first four out. Even then, it was an impressive uphill climb after taking Q3 and Q4 non-conference losses to Washington State and Boston College, respectively. Clearly, Rice’s teams have a pattern of starting a bit sluggish but finishing the season strong.

Let’s also remember that Boise State’s all-time leading scorer, Tyson Degenhart, graduated after last season. This has been their first year without Degenhart since the 2020-21 season, which has to be tough to adjust to offensively. Combine that with the Broncos’ recent tendencies and a hungry, overlooked Hawaii Pacific squad, and we have the perfect storm.

Leon Rice has his work cut out for him, but he and his guys have been in similar situations before. Plus, they’ve already grabbed some high-quality wins as they enter conference play. To kick off their Mountain West schedule, they travel to Reno to play Nevada in a Q2 opportunity. The Broncos have 5 remaining Q1 opportunities and 6 Q2s (including Nevada) throughout conference play. It’s a long road ahead, but if there’s any team to both suffer a historic non-conference upset and still claw their way into the tournament, it’s Boise State.

Note: all stats are as of the morning of Friday, December 19

Pasquantino has been on a tear; the 27-year-old went 5 straight games with a home run this past week, and hit 9 over a 14-game span. Only Shohei Ohtani has gone 5 straight games with a home run this season. The last time a player had a longer home run streak was May 2024, when Rafael Devers went 6 in a row. Vinnie is one of MLB's more underrated players, so let's take a closer look at what he's done for the Royals this year.

The Art of Driving In Runs

Kansas City is on the outside looking in playoff-wise, but still pushing for a playoff appearance in a 2nd straight season. Pasquantino is playing no small role for them. With star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. hitting 2nd in that Royals lineup, Pasquantino's main job as the 3-hitter is often driving Witt in. This is reflected in his 97 RBIs a season ago, and 92 already to date. Because of Witt's speed and hitting abilities, Pasquantino leads MLB with 177 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

In 2024, he slashed .199/.258/.380 with a 76 wRC+ with the bases empty, while going .360/.374/.583 with a 153 wRC+ with runners in scoring position. This year, those splits aren't nearly as severe, but he still slugs 37 points higher with RISP. And he clearly knows how to shorten up his swing and make contact in such situations, dropping his strikeout rate from an already low 18.1% with the bases empty to 13.6% with RISP.

The situational hitting we've just described is often regarded as a lost art in today's game, with many batters looking to hit the ball hard on nearly every pitch. But that's not Pasquantino's skillset. He knows Bobby Witt Jr. is the face of his team, and his value comes in the context of complementing Witt. He knows his home ballpark, one of the largest in baseball, where balls in play hold more value. And he knows himself, a hitter who hits for good power but has other facets to his game. Unlike the fabled tales of the sasquatch, Pasquantino's ability to drive in runs is real and on full display.

Is Pasquantino a Long-Term Answer?

While I've paid attention to Pasquantino racking up RBIs throughout this and last season, this article was sparked by his recent power surge. He's already established himself as a solid first-baseman, but if he continues the run he's on, he could be top 5 in baseball at the position.

As seen above, every single one of Pasquantino's home runs has been hit to his pull side. Particularly in Kauffman Stadium, pull-side power holds a lot of value by shortening the required distance for a home run. Why crush a ball over 400 feet to centerfield when you can swing a little earlier for a low to mid 300 feet homer? Pasquantino pulls the ball in the air at a solid 24.6% rate, a mark which has risen in each of his 4 professional seasons.

Despite having 28 home runs and a .214 ISO this season, both easily career highs, Pasquantino could have even more power in the tank as he continues to develop. In 2022, he clobbered 18 home runs in 73 AAA games. In 2021, he hit 24 across 116 games in A+ and AA. It's still not outlandish to expect more positive developments in his game, which would put him in that top 5 first baseman conversation. Even still, his performance as it stands should more than suffice, and his peripherals include a career-best 10.3% barrel rate and a 114.4 mph max EV (top 8% of baseball).

Let's also not forget where the Royals found Pasquantino, an 11th-round pick in 2019 out of Old Dominion. The surplus value he's already given his team is impressive for both him and Kansas City's front office. He turns 28 in October, so if this is as good as he gets, that's still a very solid option at first.

Overall, Vinnie Pasquantino deserves some recognition for what will be a quiet 30+ HR, 100+ RBI season. His stats back up his season-long performance, and there might be more room for growth. Maybe he and the Royals get hot down the stretch and steal a wild-card birth. Currently, their playoff odds sit at 11.2%. Far more certain, however, is the job security of both the Pasquatch and his left field mascot in Kansas City.

Post-Cy-Young Struggles

So, about that Cy Young season. Alcantara followed up his other-worldly 2022 with a bit of a down year that included a 4.14 ERA in 184.2 innings of work (28 starts). To make matters worse, his season was cut short by the dreaded Tommy John Surgery. The Marlins made the playoffs in a full season in 2023, a feat they hadn't accomplished in 20 years, but their ace couldn't pitch. Alcantara helplessly watched his team get swept in a deafening Citizens Bank Park. Just like that, Miami's magical season was over. A dreadful 100-loss campaign in 2024 made matters worse, especially with Alcantara out for the entire season.

This year, Alcantara made it back to the mound, but it's clear he's still adjusting post-injury. He currently holds a 6.36 ERA, striking out just 16.8% of batters and walking 8.7% of them. A 4.49 FIP and 4.69 SIERA suggest positive regression, but still worse numbers than you'd expect from a pitcher of his caliber.

Then again, he's thrown back-to-back shutouts in his last couple of outings. This, along with the Marlins' recent surge, contributed to the team deciding not to trade him at this year's deadline. And I have reason to believe those outings aren't some small sample size fluke.

Increased Curveball Usage

Alcantara is using his curveball more frequently, a pitch he's never really leaned on. In 2022, he threw it 11 times all season. But in his past two starts, he threw it on 23.5% of pitches, and then 35.1% of pitches. In only 4 starts this year, he has thrown it 23% of the time or greater, and 3 of those starts were shutouts, his only 3 shutouts all season. The one other start resulted in 2 earned runs over 5 innings of work, meaning he's pitched to a 0.78 ERA in his 4 curveball-heavy starts.

This pitch is fascinating for many reasons. Among the 152 right-handed pitchers who have thrown curveballs this season, only 8 throw theirs with less vertical drop than Alcantara. 6 throw theirs with less horizontal break than him. The only righty in baseball who beats Sandy on both of these metrics is German Marquez.

So it's a breaking ball that doesn't break much, in any direction. That has to be bad, right?

Well, according to stuff+, it's tied for the third-best curveball in baseball among qualified starters. Only Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez's curveballs grade out better. Stuff+ likely captures the fact that it's such an outlier compared to most curves. Sure, it moves less than most, but if hitters expect a pitch to move more than it does, it'll fool them just as much as a pitch they think moves less than it does. Both pitches create deception.

Adding to this pitch's weirdness is the way it spins. Statcast says it only has 24% active spin, meaning just 24% of the pitch's spin contributes to its movement. Only 2 pitchers have a lower active spin on their curveball this year. Based on the spin of the pitch, its axis of rotation should be 8:15, but it's measured at 7:30. This 45 "minute" discrepancy in the direction the pitch should be spinning versus how it actually spins is tied for 3rd in baseball. To top it all off, the angle at which Alcantara's curveball enters the strike zone is -8.5 degrees, making it the 11th-flattest right-handed curveball in baseball.

Essentially, the shape of this pitch is nothing like you'd expect. It makes hitters look silly. Even when they sit on a curveball, it's easy for them to swing under it, thinking it will move further than it does. Here's an example:

Batters are hitting the curve less than any other pitch Alcantara throws this year (.295 wOBA), despite this being the first season he's thrown it more than 9% of the time (15.9%). He threw it 53 times in those last 2 starts, and all opposing batters have to show for it is a single. In a different example, instead of forcing a hitter to swing under it, Alcantara throws it low and away for a flat-out whiff:

Decreased Four-Seam Usage

In tandem with throwing his wacky curveball more, Alcantara has strayed away from his four-seam fastball. He threw it 10.2% of the time in his second-to-last outing, and 8.5% of the time in his most recent one, despite it being at 21.6% usage this year and 25.5% in his Cy Young season. 2 of his 3 lowest usage rates on this pitch were those last two outings.

It looks a lot like his sinker, as it tails more than most four-seam fastballs, but it doesn't sink like his sinker. In other words, it stays on the same vertical plane for too long, making it easy to track for opposing hitters. One can argue that throwing both these pitches at a high rate becomes redundant. Additionally, opponents are hitting .320 on this pitch and slugging .570, again suggesting hitters are seeing it well. Stuff+ grades this pitch the worst of his arsenal (102).

It's been a long and treacherous road back for Sandy Alcantara, but he's clearly willing to make adjustments to his game plan. If his past two outings are any indication, he may have struck gold with this non-conforming curveball, and it makes sense why he'd want to keep throwing it. It also makes sense for the Marlins to work with him to get back to where he was just 3 years prior, rather than sell low on him at the deadline. They'll have him back in 2026, with a club option for 2027.

Things are finally looking up in Miami. Key players stayed put at this year's trade deadline, developing with the Marlins rather than being shipped off for yet another haul of prospects. Alcantara and his strategic, deceiving, and ever-changing pitch arsenal will remain very much in the picture for this ballclub.

"There's nothing more I wanted than to stay in Miami," he said.

The Rumor Mill

Suarez has drawn interest from several clubs, including the Mariners, Cubs, and Yankees. However, a few interesting developments occurred earlier this week. The Yankees acquired 3B Ryan McMahon from the Rockies, which appears to be a pivot move from Suarez. The Mariners, still very much in the Suarez sweepstakes, made a smaller trade with the Diamondbacks when they acquired 1B Josh Naylor. Perhaps Arizona's asking price for Suarez is too high for New York and Seattle, both of which did not want to leave the deadline empty-handed.

Seattle still feels like a great fit for Suarez. He played there during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, and the Mariners likely regret trading him to the Diamondbacks in the first place. Ben Williamson, a notable prospect for the Mariners, has manned third base for most of this season, but his .254/.289/.311 slash line isn't cutting it. In Chicago, the Cubs have been trotting out their young third baseman, Matt Shaw, who has slashed .225/.294/.344 this year. Both teams would benefit from renting Suarez in the final months of this year before fully committing to their rookie third basemen.

Suarez's Key Adjustment

Suarez has always been a reliable power hitter. Apart from the shortened 2020 season (where he hit 15 HR in 57 games), we have to go back to 2015 to find a year where he didn't eclipse 20 homers. As previously mentioned, however, he's tapped into that power even more significantly this year. How?

Firstly, as hitters get older, their contact rates tend to decrease. Patient hitting is a virtue that Suarez knows well, but especially for aging players, a hitter can be too patient. He can sit on too many pitches, waiting for the perfect one, without enough bat-to-ball skills to justify swinging so rarely. Suarez's contact rate stayed consistently at 77% from 2014-18. But in 2019, his age-27 season, it fell to 72.9%, and has been at 71.3% from 2019-25.

Thus, Arizona has instructed Suarez to swing more. This makes intuitive sense - if you make less contact on a per-swing basis, you should add more swings to adjust. This is reflected in Suarez's low walk rate (6.9%), despite the 9.6% career mark. Additionally, he held a 43.3% swing rate from 2014-23. In his first year in Arizona, his swing rate jumped to 47.2%, and again to 50.8% this season.

But you can't just mindlessly swing more; there has to be intent behind it, or he'd just end up striking out more. His intent? Pull balls in the air. This is known to be a method of maximizing a batted ball. Pulled fly balls are more likely to be hit for home runs, even without fast exit velocities. It's always easier to yank a ball over the shorter left field fence (or right field, for lefties) than to demolish a ball to straightaway center. Suarez has been solid at this throughout his career, pulling fly balls at a 21.4% rate compared to the 16.7% league average. But his 28.6% and 29.1% marks in 2024 and 2025, respectively, are excellent. Only 10 of 249 qualified hitters this year have pulled fly balls at a higher rate than Suarez, with MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh leading the way at 38%.

Now, when a hitter intentionally tries to pull more fly balls, they swing earlier. This means they have slightly less time to make their swing decisions, which will inevitably lead to more whiffs. Suarez's 31.4% whiff rate is in the 10th percentile of baseball this year. But as we've established, his contact rates have been down for quite some time. He's perfectly okay with being less patient, taking fewer walks, and making the most of the limited contact he does have by pulling balls in the air. His .338 ISO is superb, especially knowing he's surpassed a .300 mark in just one other season, and that was 2019, notorious for its juiced baseballs that left the yard with ease.

This adjustment doesn't come without cons, however. Suarez has a 31.4% chase rate (27th percentile), easily a career-worst for him. And while pulling fly balls is great, he could easily move to an unfriendly ballpark and watch those same batted balls that went for homers land in the glove of a left fielder. That, along with the Diamondbacks' potentially high asking price, could make teams a little wary of Suarez. Again, the Yankees were interested in him, but instead opted for a cheaper option in Ryan McMahon.

Looking Ahead

At the end of the day, almost any player comes with risk, and Suarez is no exception. But risk comes with reward: his career is beginning to look like that of a potential Hall of Famer. He has 312 career home runs, and getting to 500 without using steroids makes a player a good bet for the Hall. Suarez is technically in his age-33 season, having turned 34 just 8 days ago. He'd need a huge power surge to close out his career to get to 500, but it's been done before.

Ted Williams entered his age-34 season with 324 bombs before notching another 197, en route to 521 career home runs. David Ortiz had 317 at the end of his age-33 season and finished with 541. Fellow 500 home run club members Frank Thomas and Eddie Murray hit 173 and 151 homers, respectively, after their age-33 seasons. Reggie Jackson, meanwhile, nearly hit 200 after his age-33 season.

These five Hall of Famers show a player like Suarez that you can still hit bombs well into your late 30s. Assuming Suarez's adjustments keep working for him, and his new ballpark is friendly to him, it's not outlandish to say he can make it. But regardless of it all, whoever pays up for Eugenio Suarez will be getting a big-time bat that can help win a 2025 World Series. And for a present-minded GM of a contending team, what more can you ask for at the trade deadline?

We've Seen this Movie Before

Let's look back to 2014, a year when the Giants bested the Royals in a thrilling 7-game World Series. But before that, they weren't too far from where this year's team is. In late July, the Dodgers led the NL West, with the Giants in a dogfight for a Wild Card spot. Second base was a glaring hole in the lineup. Many were clamoring for a change, so much so that the team considered moving Gold-Glove shortstop Brandon Crawford to second base, paving the way to trade for then-Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins. And yet, as the clock ticked down to zero, San Francisco stuck to their guns offensively.

Given their championship that season, hindsight views this decision very kindly. But when it went down, it was questionable at best. Their starting second baseman at that time was rookie Joe Panik, who struggled mightily leading up to the deadline. Panik was slashing .211/.278/.239 with a 53 wRC+. He only played 24 games to that point, but things still looked bleak at second base.

Then, all of a sudden, Panik was on a mission to prove the Giants' front office right. In the 49 games post-deadline, he slashed .338/.367/.414, good for a 126 wRC+. Meanwhile, the Giants secured the final NL Wild Card spot before going on their improbable World Series run.

And who could forget this dazzling play in Game 7:

What This Means Now

This season, second base has been a revolving door for the Giants. After a very promising 2024, Tyler Fitzgerald opened the year as the Giants' starter, but has since been optioned to Triple-A. Christian Koss and Brett Wisely have also seen some reps at the position, but Casey Schmitt is certainly the best option on the roster.

Schmitt, a natural third baseman, burst onto the scene in May of 2023, hitting a home run in his first MLB game before going deep again in his third. But opposing pitchers adjusted, especially with Schmitt swinging at 38.5% of pitches outside the strike zone, and he failed to maintain a full-time role in the big leagues. In several stints throughout 2023 and 2024, Schmitt totaled 130 games played, slashing .219/.264/.369, with his struggles stemming from that tendency to chase pitches.

This year, however, Schmitt looks like a completely different hitter. He has done a great job refining his plate discipline, dropping his chase rate to 27.3%. It's not a world-beating mark, but it's better than over half the league's hitters, so it certainly plays. His walk rate has jumped from 4.4% in his first two seasons to 9.2% this year. Mind you, this is a player who went 68 plate appearances before drawing his first MLB walk.

With Schmitt, plate discipline was always his primary concern; his strength sends the ball far, the question was simply whether he'd make enough contact. That notion is being proven this year. His hard hit rate is 47.2%, 11 points better than the 36.8% league average, and while his slugging percentage sits at just .381, his xSLG is .454, and his xwOBA on contact is .440 (.369 league average). Furthermore, his launch angle sweet spot rate (41.6%) is impressively in the top 5% of baseball.

But despite all of the numbers that back up Schmitt's surge to everyday player, the real lesson here is an intangible one. When the Giants didn't acquire an infielder in 2014, it essentially told Joe Panik that the front office trusts him. It told Panik that he was their guy, that he was the one to be a key contributor in a playoff run.

For Schmitt, having been up and down between MLB and AAA, having just recently put it all together, and having worked so hard to fix his plate discipline, the front office needs to send him the right message. Panik was a Giants mainstay for 4 and a half seasons after 2014, and Schmitt is only 26 years old. He could be their guy, not just for the remainder of this year, but for seasons to come.

Looking Elsewhere?

The Giants, who already traded for the best player on the market in Rafael Devers, will likely try to swing another move or two before the 31st. And that's okay. Encouraged, even. Perhaps first base or back-of-the-rotation starter is where they look - two positions that have lacked consistency this year. After all, the 2014 deadline wasn't complete silence in San Francisco: starting pitcher Jake Peavy proved to be a quality pickup down the stretch.

Buster Posey, now President of Baseball Operations, was the best player on that 2014 team, and he undoubtedly knows the impact that year's deadline had on Joe Panik. Hopefully, Posey makes moves that don't disrupt Casey Schmitt, injecting another young Giants second baseman with a healthy dose of confidence.