• 6% Fantrax rostered.

The Giants may have landed a steal when they acquired Jacob Bresnahan from Cleveland in the Alex Cobb trade. At the time, he looked like an intriguing lottery ticket. A year later, he’s looking like a very good under the radar left-handed pitching prospect.

The first thing that jumps off the page isn’t necessarily his velocity—it’s how difficult he is to hit. Last season, Bresnahan struck out 124 hitters in just 93 innings, good for an outstanding 12.0 K/9. That’s not the profile of a pitch-to-contact starter; it’s someone who can genuinely miss bats. Even more encouraging, he paired that with a 2.61 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and allowed just 0.19 home runs per nine innings, one of the best marks among qualified minor league starters.

Those numbers tell you his stuff is already playing against professional hitters.

This year, he sports a 2.92 ERA, with a 10.98 K/9. That cumulative line undersells what he is doing though. Bresnahan had two pretty awful starts earlier this year that have distorted the numbers. The worst game being on June 3rd when he gave up 5 earned runs in just 2 innings of work.

Since 6/3? Only an ERA of 1.60, 10 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9 across his last 7 starts. Hello! That will do. His start on July 9th was unreal. He went 6 innings with 2 hits allowed, 1 ER, and 11 K’s! I am curious to see if he gets a bump to AA soon.

Read more

From Contact Specialist to Complete Threat: Jung Hoo Lee’s Rise

“In a different era, Jung Hoo Lee’s numbers would have the baseball world’s full attention.”

That observation from the San Francisco Chronicle captures the season the San Francisco Giants center fielder is putting together in 2026. While much of baseball’s attention remains fixed on home runs and exit velocities, Lee has quietly become one of the National League’s most complete offensive players through elite bat control, smarter swing decisions, and an approach that’s finally translating to Major League success.

Through late June, Lee is batting .333 with a .367 on-base percentage, a .474 slugging percentage, and an .841 OPS. Those numbers represent a significant jump from his first two MLB seasons, when he posted OPS marks of .641 in 2024 and .734 in 2025. But the story isn’t simply about improved numbers—it’s about a hitter who has become more comfortable, more confident, and more dangerous without changing the identity that made him one of Korea’s greatest hitters.

Elite Contact, Better Results

Jung Hoo Lee has always possessed extraordinary bat-to-ball skills. What has changed in 2026 is what happens when he makes contact.

According to Statcast, Lee ranks among baseball’s elite in nearly every contact metric. His 9.0 percent strikeout rate sits in the 99th percentile, while his 12.4 percent whiff rate ranks in the 97th percentile. His expected batting average (.310) also ranks in the 99th percentile, suggesting his production is backed by sustainable underlying performance rather than luck.

Instead of trying to become a slugger, Lee has become more selective. He’s driving pitches into the gaps, turning line drives into doubles, and punishing mistakes without sacrificing the elite contact skills that define his game.

The result is a hitter who remains incredibly difficult to strike out while producing more impactful contact than ever before.

Finding His Rhythm

Giants manager Tony Vitello believes Lee’s breakout is rooted more in confidence than mechanics.

“I just notice Jung Hoo’s comfortability in his own skin.”

Vitello has watched Lee grow increasingly comfortable both on and off the field throughout the season. That comfort has translated directly into the batter’s box, where Lee looks far more relaxed and decisive than he did during his first two seasons.

The Giants manager doesn’t believe the improvement is temporary.

“I think he’s gonna keep like this. I think he’s found a rhythm of who he is... He looked like his hero Ichiro just staying in line to the pitcher.”

That comparison to Ichiro Suzuki is fitting. Like the Hall of Famer, Lee isn’t trying to overpower pitchers. He’s staying within himself, using the entire field, rarely chasing pitches outside the strike zone, and consistently putting pressure on opposing defenses.

Confidence Beyond the Diamond

Lee has also spoken openly about how his growing comfort in America has helped unlock his game. Those of you who have known me for a while, know that I often talk about the mental side of baseball. It is a grind. Mentally and physically.

After spending more than two years adjusting to life in the United States, Lee recently explained the difference in simple terms.

“I can express myself.”

It’s a short quote, but one that carries significant meaning.

Earlier in his MLB career, Lee was adapting to a new language, a new culture, new teammates, and the highest level of baseball in the world. Now those adjustments have largely disappeared. The confidence he has gained away from the field has become visible between the lines.

The Giants recognized how important that transition would be.

“We tried to connect him with everything we could to make him feel as comfortable as if he were truly at home,” Vitello said earlier this season. That investment is paying dividends.

Igniting the Giants’ Offense

Lee’s breakout has coincided with one of the Giants’ best offensive stretches of the season.

During an 18-game hitting streak that stretched across May and June before being interrupted by a brief stint on the injured list, Lee helped spark an offense that ranked among baseball’s most productive. His batting average climbed from .265 to well above .330, and nearly every quality-of-contact metric improved along the way.

He isn’t simply collecting singles. Lee has turned more balls into extra-base hits, driven the ball with greater authority, and forced pitchers to attack him differently. He is on pace to hit more than 40 doubles. A direct reflection of his increase in line drives. His LD% has increased from 19% in 2025, to 25% in 2026. That will play. His improved slugging percentage reflects a hitter who is maximizing his strengths rather than reinventing them.

The Chronicle noted that the Giants signed Lee to provide stability and consistency at the top of the lineup. Now, he’s become much more than that. He’s become the catalyst.

The Complete Offensive Player

One of the biggest misconceptions surrounding Lee when he arrived from the KBO was that he would be little more than a high-average singles hitter.

Instead, 2026 has shown that elite contact hitters can still be impact offensive players.

Lee has combined exceptional bat control with improved gap power, disciplined swing decisions, and outstanding situational hitting. Few hitters in baseball strike out less frequently while consistently producing quality contact.

At 27 years old, he appears to have found the perfect balance between the player he was in Korea and the adjustments necessary to thrive against Major League pitching.

He hasn’t abandoned his approach. He’s refined it.

And in doing so, Jung Hoo Lee has become everything the Giants envisioned when they signed him—an elite table-setter, an offensive catalyst, and one of the National League’s most complete hitters.

If this first half is any indication, his evolution at the plate may only be beginning.

Kien Vu, OF, Cincinnati Reds

• 1% Fantrax owned

Kien Vu is a former ninth-round Arizona State draftee who is turning into an intriguing under the radar player in Cincinnati’s system. The left-handed hitting outfielder doesn’t fit the traditional power-prospect mold, but his combination of plate discipline, contact quality, athleticism, and baseball instincts has allowed him to outperform expectations at every stop.

Read more

MLB’s Home Run Derby Rule Change: Are We Repeating History?

For more than a decade, Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby has been one of the most entertaining events of All-Star Week. The timed format, introduced in 2015, transformed what many felt had become a slow-paced exhibition into a fast-moving spectacle filled with dramatic finishes, record-breaking performances, and nonstop action.

The first year was amazing! The Toddfather crushing balls at his home park on the banks of the Ohio River. It was fun!

Now, MLB is changing course again. Doh!

Read more

Bam Rodriguez Just Changed the Conversation

For years, Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez has been one of boxing’s best fighters.

This past weekend, he became something more.

By stopping Antonio Vargas in six rounds he captured the WBA bantamweight title. Rodriguez didn’t just become a three-division world champion; he answered the one lingering question that followed him throughout his rise through the lower weight classes.

Could his brilliance survive against naturally bigger fighters? The answer appears to be yes at this moment. And that’s a scary thought for the rest of boxing.

The Last Question Mark Is Gone

Rodriguez entered Saturday’s fight as one of the sport’s premier pound-for-pound talents, but there was understandable skepticism surrounding his move to bantamweight.

At 115 pounds, Bam had already established himself as arguably the best fighter in the division. He unified titles, dismantled elite opposition, and consistently passed every eye test imaginable. But moving up another weight class is different. It’s one thing to dominate fighters your size. It’s another to do it against champions who have spent their entire careers carrying more weight and punching with more authority.

Antonio Vargas was supposed to provide those answers. Instead, Rodriguez provided another reminder of why he’s special. Vargas had moments early. He landed clean shots, used his size effectively, and showed enough success to suggest Rodriguez might face genuine adversity. But as the rounds progressed, Bam did what elite fighters do.

He figured it out.

The angles became sharper. The timing became more precise. The pressure became more relentless. Then came the finish.

By the sixth round, Vargas had no answers, and Rodriguez was celebrating another world championship in another division. The most impressive part wasn’t that he won, it’s how quickly he looked comfortable doing it. He dominated.

From Champion to Attraction

Boxing has no shortage of champions. What it lacks are attractions. Especially with Canelo Alvarez in the twilight of his career.

Rodriguez is rapidly becoming one. Much in the same way Manny Pacquiao did two decades ago. Domination in the smaller weight classes and moving up, winning titles at every step.

The combination is difficult to find. He has elite technical skills, but he also fights aggressively enough to entertain casual fans. He wins rounds with intelligence but finishes fights with violence. He’s humble outside the ring and ruthless inside it.

Those qualities are why his profile continues to grow with every appearance.

At 26 years old, Rodriguez already owns victories over elite champions across multiple divisions. He’s now a three-division world champion with plenty of physical prime remaining.

That’s usually when conversations shift from “How good is he?” to “How great can he become?”

The Inoue Shadow Looms Larger Than Ever

Every great fighter eventually reaches a point where the future becomes more interesting than the present. Rodriguez has arrived at that point.

The obvious next step is pursuing bantamweight unification fights. There are meaningful titles available and legitimate opponents who can further cement his legacy in the division.

But let’s be honest.

Everyone is thinking about Naoya Inoue. Queue Stone Cold Steve Austin voice “OH HELL YEAH! Bam - Inoue would be one of the biggest fights in the sport.

The Japanese superstar remains one of the sport’s biggest attractions and one of the most feared fighters on the planet. For years, the idea of Rodriguez facing Inoue felt hypothetical because of the size difference.

It doesn’t feel hypothetical anymore. Saturday’s performance didn’t guarantee that fight will happen, but it made it feel realistic. But boxing gods, please make this fight happen.

The sport desperately needs meaningful superfights. Rodriguez-Inoue isn’t just a fight between two champions. It’s a fight between two pound-for-pound talents with Hall of Fame trajectories. Those opportunities don’t come around often.

Oscar Collazo Headlines a Sneaky Good Weekend

Before the boxing world gets too far ahead of itself with Rodriguez’s future, another elite champion takes center stage this weekend.

Unified WBA and WBO minimumweight champion Oscar Collazo returns against Joey Canoy in a fight that deserves far more attention than it’s likely to receive.

Collazo has quietly become one of the most entertaining champions in boxing. The undefeated Puerto Rican combines high-level fundamentals with an aggressive approach that consistently produces action. While the minimumweight division rarely receives mainstream coverage, Collazo has become one of the strongest arguments for paying attention.

Canoy enters as an underdog, but he’s the kind of opponent who typically creates entertaining fights. He comes forward, throws punches, and rarely takes a backward step.

That’s usually a recipe for drama. God I love these kinds of fights!

The bigger picture is what makes Collazo’s run interesting. Much like Rodriguez before him, he’s beginning to separate himself from the rest of his division. If he continues winning, conversations about undisputed status and eventual moves up in weight will become unavoidable.

Undercard Fighters Worth Monitoring

Not every boxing card needs superstar names to matter. But this weekend’s undercard offers several prospects worth watching.

Yair Gallardo continues his development at light heavyweight and faces another important step-up opportunity. Joshua Edwards remains one of the more intriguing American heavyweight prospects, while amateur standout Ruslan Abdullaev continues building his professional resume.

None of those fighters are finished products. But cards like these are where future contenders are built.

Final Bell

The biggest takeaway from last weekend isn’t that Bam Rodriguez won another title. It’s that he may have eliminated the final argument against placing him among the very best fighters in the world.

For years, critics wondered whether his success would translate against bigger opponents. Now we know.

The challenge for Rodriguez is no longer proving he belongs but he challenge is deciding how high he wants to climb. And if Saturday night was any indication, boxing’s pound-for-pound landscape may be about to get a lot more interesting.

Thank you for reading y’all! Let me know if you like my coverage of other sports, it’s something that freshens up the ‘stack imo. Have a great Wednesday.

• Ash

Braylon Owens: SP, Milwaukee Brewers

• 0% Fantrax owned

If you’re looking for a sleeper pitching prospect in the Brewers system, Braylon Owens is becoming a name worth knowing.

A 10th-round pick out of UTSA in 2025, Owens wasn’t viewed as one of the headliners of Milwaukee’s draft class. But since entering pro ball, he’s done exactly what organizations want to see from a later-round arm: miss bats, compete, and force evaluators to take a second look.

The numbers tell the story. Through his first 11 appearances with High-A Wisconsin, Owens has struck out 65 hitters in just 50.2 innings, good for an eye-opening 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings. His 3.9 walks per nine show there’s still some refinement needed, but his ability to generate swings and misses has allowed him to post nearly a three-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio against more advanced hitters.

The first thing that jumps out when watching Owens is how uncomfortable he makes at-bats. He’s not the biggest pitcher on the mound, but he attacks hitters with confidence and pitches with the kind of edge that organizations love.

His fastball plays better than the radar gun might suggest. The pitch has enough life to get swings and misses at the top of the zone, and he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters when he’s ahead in the count. The real separator, though, is the slider. It’s a legitimate out pitch that has fueled much of his strikeout success this season.

The biggest question moving forward is whether Owens sticks as a starter. He has the fastball-slider combination to pitch in the major leagues, but continued development of his changeup will be important if he’s going to turn over lineups consistently at the upper levels. Command can also be a work in progress at times, as evidenced by the walk rate, though the strikeout ability helps him work around occasional mistakes.

What makes Owens particularly intriguing is that he fits the profile of pitchers Milwaukee has developed successfully in the past. The Brewers have built a reputation for identifying under-the-radar arms and helping them maximize their stuff, and Owens looks like another candidate to benefit from that system.

Right now, the most realistic outcome is a back-end starter who can miss bats and provide quality innings. If the command and third pitch continue to improve, there’s enough upside here for something more. And if starting doesn’t ultimately work, his fastball-slider combination gives him a high floor as a potentially impactful bullpen arm.

For a 10th-round pick just one year removed from college, Owens has already exceeded expectations. The strikeout production is real, the stuff is playing, and he’s quickly becoming one of many interesting pitching prospects in Milwaukee’s system.

I think he is probably a reliever down the road or a back end starter. But, he’s worth knowing and paying attention to. I roster him in one league at the moment and may put in a claim in one more this week. Currently, I am putting a 3-star on him as I think he can be a depth piece down the road.

Tell me in the comments what you think. MLBer or no? Anyways, happy mining y’all!

• Ash

The biggest issue? He’s striking out way too much.

Riley’s strikeout rate is pushing 29%, and his whiff rate is among the worst in baseball. Simply put, he’s missing more pitches than we’re used to seeing from him. Too many at-bats are ending before he ever gets a chance to do damage, and pitchers have been able to exploit that.

During his best seasons from 2022-24, his K-rate stayed right around 24%. So this increase is worrisome.

The encouraging thing is that the power hasn’t disappeared.

When Riley makes contact, he’s still hitting the ball hard. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel numbers are all solid. Those aren’t the metrics of a hitter whose bat speed is gone or whose power has completely vanished.

A lot of his hard contact isn’t coming at ideal launch angles. Instead of line drives into the gaps or towering pull-side home runs, he’s producing more weakly hit fly balls, topped grounders, and hard-hit outs. The raw power is still there, but the quality of contact isn’t nearly as consistent as it was during his peak years.

Pitchers also seem to have a pretty clear game plan against him right now.

They’re attacking him with breaking balls, getting him into unfavorable counts, and then expanding the zone. Riley has always had some swing-and-miss in his game, but lately he’s been chasing more often and making less contact when he does swing. That’s a tough combination to overcome.

There’s probably a mental component, too.

Riley recently talked about overthinking things and trying to get back to a simpler approach. That’s usually what you hear from hitters when they’re pressing. When results don’t come, it’s natural to start tinkering with mechanics, searching for answers, and trying to force things instead of trusting your process.

So should Braves fans be worried?

A little.

The strikeout and whiff numbers are real concerns. Those aren’t just bad-luck stats that magically fix themselves. If those issues continue, it’s fair to wonder whether this is becoming more than just a slump.

At the same time, there are plenty of reasons to believe he’ll bounce back. The bat speed is still there. The power is still there. The hard contact is still there. Players who completely fall off a cliff usually don’t continue hitting the ball as hard as Riley does.

If there’s one number I’d watch over the next few weeks, it’s his whiff rate. If that starts trending in the right direction, the batting average, power numbers, and overall production should follow.

Right now, Riley looks less like a hitter whose talent has disappeared and more like a hitter who is fighting some legitimate swing-and-miss issues while trying to regain his timing and confidence. The tools are still there. The question is whether he can make the adjustments before this rough season gets away from him.

Welcome back to another episode of Prospect Mining. Today we turn to the pitching lab that is Milwaukee for a late round draft pick they made in 2024.

Jayden Dubanewicz: SP, Milwaukee Brewers

• Fantrax: 2% owned

Read more

Ok guys we are back with another episode and this one is slightly more conventional than a 21 year old in CPX ball. So without further ado, let’s dive right in!

Aaron Walton: 1b, Cleveland Guardians

• Fantrax: 4% rostered

Aaron Walton is one of the more interesting upside plays in Cleveland’s farm system. The former Arizona outfielder has the kind of physical tools that immediately catch a scout’s eye: he’s 6-foot-4, runs well for his size, has legitimate power potential, and can handle center field.

The Guardians selected Walton with the 66th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft after a breakout junior season at Arizona, where he hit .320 with 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases. He looked every bit the part of a modern power-speed outfielder, flashing athleticism on both sides of the ball while showing enough offensive production to convince clubs there could be more in the tank.

As a second round pick and 4% owned, maybe he doesn’t belong in an episode of PM, but whatevs.

What makes Walton intriguing is the combination of tools and projection. He generates easy raw power thanks to his strength and leverage, and when he gets the barrel out front, the ball comes off his bat with authority. There’s enough here to dream on 20-plus home run seasons down the road. Paired with the speed and you could have a 20/20 (or better) guy patrolling the outfield at the Jake. Yes, it’s still the Jake.

The biggest question is whether he’ll make enough contact to get to that power consistently. Strikeouts have followed Walton throughout his amateur career and continued to be part of the conversation after he entered pro ball. He is sitting at 27.3% K’s right now in A+. The swing can get long at times, and upper-level pitching will test his ability to make adjustments. On the plus side, he does have a good SwStr% at around 11% thus far in 2026. Not bad.

Fortunately for Walton, he doesn’t have to rely solely on the bat. He’s an above-average athlete who moves surprisingly well for his frame, giving him value as both a defender and baserunner. He has experience in center field and currently has the range to stay there, though some evaluators believe he could eventually shift to right field as he fills out physically.

There’s also a lot to like about the overall profile. Walton plays with energy, has a strong reputation for his work ethic, and fits the mold of the type of athlete Cleveland has had success developing in recent years.

At the end of the day, Walton is a classic high-ceiling prospect. If the hit tool reaches even fringe-average territory, he has a chance to develop into an everyday big league outfielder who contributes power, speed, and defensive versatility. If the contact issues persist, the floor looks more like a fourth outfielder who can impact games in a variety of ways.

Either way, he’s a player worth monitoring closely over the next couple of seasons. The tools are there, and if the bat takes a step forward, Walton could emerge as one of the more notable risers in the Guardians system. I am rostering him in 6 leagues, so I obviously think pretty highly of him. Currently, I am putting him as a 4-star.

Anyways, happy mining y’all!

• Ash

Welcome to another edition of Prospect Mining. Where we look for those guys that are huge longshots but are interesting nonetheless. Today’s edition looks at a guy that is gonna make some of your heads explode. I know.

Read more

Every year, around Memorial Day, something quietly enormous happens in American sports. It may be my favorite event to attend, even if I am a bigger baseball fan than racing fan.

More than 300,000 people pour into a racetrack in Indiana. Drivers hit speeds above 230 mph. Milk becomes a trophy accessory. And for a few hours, the Indianapolis 500 turns into one of the biggest sporting events on Earth.

Not motorsports events.
Sporting events.

The Indy 500 regularly draws a larger crowd than the Super Bowl, the Masters, or the World Series. Yet for a lot of casual fans — especially younger ones — it still feels oddly mysterious.

Formula 1 has Netflix. NASCAR has cultural familiarity. But the Indy 500? Many people know exactly three things:

• Cars go very fast (Drivers will enter turn 3 at close to 240MPH!)

• Drivers only turn left (More on that later)

• Somebody drinks milk afterward (Many may not even know that!)

So before this year’s race, here’s a beginner-friendly guide to what actually makes the Indy 500 special — and why it’s one of the coolest spectacles in sports.

First: What Is the Indy 500?

The Indianapolis 500 is a 500-mile race held at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, usually on the Sunday before Memorial Day.

The track is a 2.5-mile oval. Drivers complete 200 laps.

At full speed, the cars average around 220+ mph.

Which means this isn’t just “driving fast.” It’s closer to fighter-jet concentration levels for nearly three straight hours.

The race first ran in 1911. That makes it older than the NFL, NBA, the Daytona 500 and any Formula 1 GP. It is also one of the crown jewels of motorsport worldwide, alongside:

• the Monaco Grand Prix (Formula 1)

• the 24 Hours of Le Mans (endurance racing)

Winning the Indy 500 once can define an entire career. Those three are often referred to as the “Triple Crown of Motorsport.”

Why Is Turning Left So Hard?

This is the question every new fan asks.

And honestly? Fair.

But oval racing at Indy is nothing like casually driving around a circle.

At 230 mph tiny steering inputs matter, air turbulence changes handling instantly, and one mistake can end your race immediately. Potentially even your life. It is not for the faint at heart.

Drivers talk constantly about “dirty air,” tire degradation, fuel strategy, and finding the perfect racing line.

Also: the walls are always there. Unlike road courses with runoff areas, Indy punishes mistakes immediately. It’s chess played at terrifying speed.

But having said that…

While the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is technically an oval. But anyone who has spent time watching — or driving — the Indy 500 knows the place behaves far more like a road course than most fans realize.

That sounds ridiculous at first. Four left turns. Flat-out throttle. Two and a half miles. How could it possibly resemble a road course?

Because Indianapolis is not a drafting track. It is not a momentum oval. It is not even particularly “oval-like” in the modern NASCAR sense. IMS is a precision circuit disguised as an oval, and the entire history of the Speedway is built around one brutal truth:

You cannot bully the place.

At Indianapolis, every lap is about sequencing corners, managing tire degradation, balancing the car over long runs, and sacrificing one section of the track to improve another. That is road-course racing philosophy applied to an oval-shaped facility.

And that’s exactly why the Speedway remains so difficult.

The Corners Don’t Behave Like Oval Corners

Most modern oval racing is built around rhythm and traffic.

At Daytona and Talladega, the draft dominates everything. At short ovals, mechanical grip and aggression matter most. At intermediates like Kansas or Charlotte, drivers search for multiple lanes and carry momentum through progressive banking.

Indianapolis offers almost none of that.

The corners are flat by superspeedway standards — only 9 degrees of banking — which means drivers cannot simply lean on aerodynamic grip and let the banking save them. Instead, they have to brake the car with weight transfer, rotate it carefully at corner entry, and maximize exit without abusing the rear tires.

That sounds a lot more like Road America than Daytona.

Each corner at IMS also feeds directly into the next long straightaway, meaning mistakes compound dramatically. A tiny understeer moment in Turn 1 destroys speed all the way down to Turn 2. Drivers constantly sacrifice entry speed for clean exits, exactly the way they would at a traditional road course.

The Speedway is essentially four giant braking-and-rotation zones connected by straights.

The geometry just happens to be circular.

Indianapolis Punishes Overdriving

This is the single biggest reason the track races like a road course.

At many ovals, especially heavily banked ones, aggression can compensate for imperfect balance. Drivers can diamond corners, catch slides with banking, or use sideforce and dirty air to muscle through traffic.

At Indianapolis, overdriving is fatal.

Push too hard into the corner and the front tires wash out. Ask too much from the rears on exit and the car snaps loose into the wall. Because the corners are long and relatively flat, tire temperature builds relentlessly over a stint.

The fastest drivers at IMS are almost always the smoothest.

That’s classic road-course behavior.

Watch onboard footage from drivers like Scott Dixon, Helio Castroneves, or Alex Palou. Their steering traces look more like endurance racers than superspeedway specialists. Tiny corrections. Minimal scrub. Patient throttle application.

Indianapolis rewards technical precision over raw aggression.

That’s not typical oval racing.

Setup Philosophy Looks More Like Sports Car Racing

Even the engineering approach at Indianapolis resembles road-course thinking.

Teams obsess over platform stability, corner-phase balance, and long-run tire management rather than simply maximizing peak downforce or drag efficiency. The setup window is incredibly narrow because the car has to remain stable through four nearly identical but subtly different corners for hundreds of laps.

IMS also places enormous importance on aerodynamic balance under changing fuel loads and tire wear conditions.

Again: road-course stuff.

The best Indianapolis cars are rarely the fastest for one lap. They’re the cars that remain predictable after 25 laps in traffic while the tires are fading and the track temperature changes.

That is endurance-racing logic.

Passing at Indianapolis Is Strategic, Not Constant

Another reason IMS feels more like a road course is the way passing develops.

At many ovals, passing is continuous and dynamic. Cars swap lanes, build runs, and use airflow to attack repeatedly. Indianapolis is much more calculated.

Drivers spend multiple laps setting up overtakes. They manipulate dirty air. They prepare exits. They compromise one corner to improve another. The pass itself often happens halfway down a straight, but the work started an entire lap earlier.

That resembles Formula 1 or sports car racing more than traditional oval combat.

Even pit strategy at Indianapolis feels more road-course-oriented because clean air and tire sequencing matter so heavily. Entire races are won through timing, balance management, and strategic positioning rather than sheer race pace.

The Walls Create a Psychological Road Course

Street circuits and road courses demand precision because punishment is immediate.

Indianapolis does the same thing.

Despite being enormous, the Speedway feels claustrophobic at speed because the corners arrive so quickly and mistakes carry massive consequences. Drivers spend hours talking about rhythm, marks, references, and consistency — the exact vocabulary you hear at technical road circuits.

Veteran drivers often describe Indianapolis not as a place you attack, but as a place you negotiate with.

That’s a road-course mentality.

Why This Matters

The reason Indianapolis remains so revered is because it exposes every weakness a driver or team has.

It requires aerodynamic efficiency like a superspeedway.

Mechanical grip like a short track.

Strategic discipline like endurance racing.

And corner precision like a road course.

No other oval combines all of those elements simultaneously.

That’s why the Indy 500 has always felt different from every other oval race in the world. The Speedway may be shaped like an oval, but the way it races — the patience it demands, the technical precision it rewards, and the discipline it punishes — makes it function far more like one of motorsport’s great road courses.

Indianapolis isn’t oval racing simplified.

It’s road racing disguised as an oval.

The Biggest Thing New Fans Don’t Realize: Strategy Matters A Lot

The Indy 500 is not just: “Who has the fastest car?”

It’s: “Who can still attack after 500 miles of chaos?”

Teams constantly juggle:

• fuel mileage

• tire wear

• pit stop timing

• caution flags

• track position

• weather conditions

A perfectly timed yellow flag can completely flip the race. Conversely, so can one slow pit stop.

Late in the race, it often becomes less about raw speed and more about positioning yourself for the final sprint.

The Tradition Is Part of the Magic

The Indy 500 is deeply weird in a way that great sporting events often are.

Some traditions:

• The winner drinks milk in Victory Lane

• Taps will be played in memory of those who paid the ultimate sacrifice in service to our country

• “Back Home Again in Indiana” is sung before the race

• Drivers kiss the bricks at the finish line

And unlike many modern sports traditions that feel manufactured, these actually feel inherited.

The Indy 500 still carries genuine historical weight.

When you watch old footage, it doesn’t feel like a completely different event. It feels like the same ritual passed through generations.

So Who Should You Root For?

A few easy entry points this year:

Josef Newgarden

The defending winner and one of the biggest American stars in the sport. Calm under pressure. Excellent on ovals.

Pato O’Ward

Probably the easiest driver for new fans to love. Aggressive, emotional, charismatic, fearless.

Scott Dixon

A living legend. Think: the Tim Duncan of IndyCar. Quiet greatness.

Helio Castroneves

Going for history. Already a four-time Indy 500 winner and one of the sport’s most beloved personalities.

Katherine Legge

One of the coolest stories in this year’s race.

Legge is attempting “The Double” — competing in both the Indianapolis 500 and NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 on the same day. That means:

• IndyCar in Indiana during the afternoon

• a sprint to the airport afterward

• then a flight to Charlotte for a second race that night

The challenge is already one of the most physically and mentally demanding feats in motorsports. But Legge is making history in multiple ways:

• she’s the first woman ever to attempt the Double

• and the oldest driver ever to try it

She’s long been one of the most versatile racers in the world, competing across IndyCar, sports cars, IMSA, Formula E, and NASCAR. For new fans, she’s an easy driver to rally behind because her story captures what makes the Indy 500 compelling in the first place.

Why the Indy 500 Still Matters

There’s something refreshingly analog about it.

The Indy 500 isn’t optimized for social media clips. It isn’t designed around controversy cycles. It still feels like an event more than a content machine.

For one weekend, hundreds of thousands of people gather to watch humans attempt something extremely difficult and slightly irrational.

And maybe that’s the appeal.

In an era where so much sports coverage is about transactions, branding, and discourse, the Indy 500 remains beautifully simple:

Go impossibly fast.
Hold your nerve.
Survive 500 miles.
Drink the milk.

Even if you’ve never watched a race before, that’s worth three hours of your Sunday.

The 500 mile race is one of my favorite days of the year. I hope you enjoy this divergent from the normal baseball talk. Let me know if you made it this far and what your thoughts are on the upcoming race. Who will win? Who are you rooting for?

Have a great Memorial Day.

• Ash

• Oneil Cruz breakout? Real or no? I am concerned it’s just a flash in the pan. There has been plenty of discussion about his work in the offseason to hit lefties better. Which, yes, his stats are better. But one bright red flag to me is he is swinging and missing at a rate higher than ever. So far he has a SwStr% of 18.2%. That is the highest it has ever been. Last year it was 13.3%. 18+ is unsustainable. SwStr% was my major reason behind saying PCA’s first half last season was unsustainable. A player just can’t hit long term if he misses so often.

  This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Read more

In this episode of PM, I want to take a look at a couple of pitchers that are off to good starts to 2026. Both are guys that are too old for their current level. In both cases, it is primarily due to coming off of Tommy John surgery and missing significant time. Neither player was a high pedigree guy as both were lower round picks.

I guess my question that I always struggle with is, what should the team have done? If a player misses significant time, should they put the player at an ‘age-appropriate’ level even if their actual experience doesn’t line up with that? It’s an interesting dynamic to think about and I don’t have all the answers.

First up:

Nolan Perry: SP - Toronto Blue Jays

• 2% rostered on Fantrax

Nolan is a 6’2” righty that was a 12th round pick in 2022 out of high school. He has always had a good ability to strike batters out. In his debut at the CPX level in 2023, he recorded a K/9 of 11.97. Pretty dang good. This year, as a 22-year old in A ball, he is off to a 15.23 start. Granted that is only three appearances. But still, 22 strikeouts in 13 IP is very nice.

The fastball is mid-90s and is his best pitch. His slider is solid as well and he uses it early in counts. In addition, he has a curveball that is an average offering and a change that he doesn’t throw much and is his worst offering. If he can get better grasp of the latter, he could be a true 4-pitch guy and more impressive.

Previously, his control was his biggest weakness. He walked a lot of batters in 2023 and 2024. So far, he is showing progress in 2026 after missing all of 2025. In ‘24, his BB/9 was a staggering 7.63, while three appearances in, he has just a 2.77.

If he has truly improved the control, then this is a must add for fantasy players. He is one of those guys that you snag and if he underperforms at the next level, then you churn. But so far, I am intrigued. I can see a future 4th starter here.

Kiefer Lord: SP - Baltimore Orioles

• 1% rostered on Fantrax

Next up is a former 3rd round pick in 2023. Lord missed all of 2024 and nearly all of 2025 due to TJ. He returned to the mound very late in the season for 3 outings. He is just shy of turning 24, so even more so than Perry, I would like to see a promotion come soon.

Lord is a 6’3” righty out of the University of Washington. Hey shoutout to the ol’ Pac 12. Lord features a mid-90s fastball that has generated a ton of swing and miss. It is a plus pitch overall. His slider is average but complements the fastball with some late break. Still developing are his curve and change. The latter is worse than the former.

After four starts, Lord is showing impressive stuff and is dominating the younger hitters he is seeing. He sits at a K/9 of 16.94 after recording 32 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. Holy cow. 3.18 BB/9 is a little more than I would like to see but it is not awful either. So long as it doesn’t rise as he climbs the ladder.

I am giving Lord 4-stars as I just have a feeling his ceiling is a little higher than Perry’s. I like both guys and have picked them both up in some deep leagues. I could see Lord being a 3 in a decent rotation. He needs to pitch at a higher level of the minor leagues before I get too excited. But we do also need to factor that he missed so much time. Oh, and after the draft in 2023, he only made 1 start. So basically, this is his pro debut as far as a full season.

Please let me know your thoughts on these two. Do you like either? If so, who do you like more? Happy hunting y’all!

• Ash

Ok, we are back for another installment of PM. Today we boast a couple of guys in the Angels’ system. They like to push prospects pretty quickly at times, so I like to look at their farm pretty regularly.

Read more

Welcome to season 2, episode 1 of Prospect Mining. I generally try and ignore stats until about a month into the season as we are still dealing with small samples. I overreact to these samples as much as anyone else does. That is why I try to avoid looking too early.

Having said that, I know many people enjoy reading about prospects. So, I will go ahead and give a sampling of players that I am intrigued by the early efforts. I will also do my first “Star Ratings” with these. If you remember, last fall I talked about my star ratings system I was coming up with.

I like this style of rating more than rankings. Afterall, isn’t it splitting hairs when you say a player is ranked 19th vs being ranked 25th? Can’t both of those players be fairly equal? I think that is where the college football and basketball services get it right. By using more of a leveling system as opposed to a pure ranking.

Read more

Should we have expected more from Sal?

For years, Sal Stewart lived in the margins of prospect lists, often hovering somewhere in the 50–100 range, occasionally flashing into relevance, but never cracking the sport’s upper echelon of hype. Looking at the last four Prospects Live rankings:

• Feb ‘26: #26

• Dec. ‘25: #35

• Sept. ‘25: #33

• July ‘25: #38

MLB Pipeline had him at 19 this offseason but in 2025 he was way back at 84.

Stewart was never the centerpiece of the Reds’ rebuild. Never the name that made headlines on draft night or lit up social media. He just quietly went about his business and climbed the ladder.

And yet, here he is—forcing his way into the conversation, not as a surprise, but as a correction.

The truth is, we probably should have seen this coming.

The Trap of “Projection Over Production”

Prospect culture has increasingly leaned toward projection—betting on tools, upside, and physical traits that might develop rather than skills that already exist. Stewart didn’t fit the modern mold of a helium riser:

• He wasn’t the most explosive athlete

• He didn’t have eye-popping raw power in batting practice

• He lacked the “loud tools” that dominate scouting headlines

What Stewart did have was something quieter—and often undervalued: a polished hit tool, advanced approach, and consistent production against quality competition.

He never struck out too much, put the ball in play, and walked at a very good rate. His highest k% was 15.6% and he often showed walk rates in the 14-16% range as well. Oh, and guess what else? He hit a ton of doubles.

If you have read this blog for long, you will know that is something I harp on consistently. Doubles rates can indicate future power. While he only hit 20 home runs in 2025, he also hit 34 doubles. In 2024, he had 23 doubles in just 280 at bats.

While others were dreaming on what prospects could become, Stewart was already demonstrating what he was.

Elite Bat-to-Ball Skills (That Were Hiding in Plain Sight)

From early in his development, Stewart showed:

• Advanced pitch recognition (again, check those walk rates!)

• Low swing-and-miss rates

• Ability to use the whole field

Stewart’s offensive profile wasn’t flashy, but it was repeatable and scalable.

Look at his SwStr% numbers:

This guy just does not swing and miss! I love it.

In hindsight, that should have carried more weight.

Because players who consistently control the strike zone, make quality contact (look at his line drive rates) , and adjust to pitching tend to keep hitting as they climb levels.

The Power Question

One of the biggest reasons Stewart was held outside the Top 25 was skepticism about his power ceiling. But this is where the industry sometimes misses the mark: power develops.

I mentioned before the fact that he had impressive doubles rates, which can also be an indicator of future power. But he also has a little bit of Vinnie Pasquantino in him. That alone should have sparked more interest.

Colin in the BDS discord often mentions that he has a “Pasquantino Filter” that he uses to search for prospects on Fangraphs. I have thought about that often. I now periodically look for guys that don’t strike out, have good doubles rates, and higher than normal line drive percentages. Much like the Pasquatch does now and did in the minor leagues.

I already touched on his ability to see the ball. He doesn’t strike out often and rarely swings and misses. When he makes contact, he finds alleys like crazy. Look at these LD%:

• 2022: 26.3%

• 2023: 23.9%

• 2024: 27.8%

• 2025: 26.3%

Those are phenomenal!

Time to re-evaluate how we think

Sal Stewart’s emergence should be a lesson for us.

• Are we overvaluing tools at the expense of skills?

  • Toolsy outfielders and shortstops bust at unbelievably high rates.

• Are we underrating hitters who already know how to hit?

  • We should see it coming when a guy consistently is putting up wRC+ numbers around 150 or better.

Final Thought

Sal Stewart didn’t come out of nowhere. He was always building toward this. I feel foolish for not trying to go out and roster more shares of his. He will be a productive player in fantasy lineups for years to come.

Instead, I was looking far too much at the tooled up guys that we dream will hit their 1% outcome. Like teams did George Lombard (not junior mind you) back in the day. Yeah, I know that’s before some of you were born.

Let me know what you think. Is Stewart the front runner for ROTY? Have a great weekend y’all!

• Ash

  This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Ok, the first 8 days of the MLB season are in the books. So let’s take a look at some impressions from around the league.

Read more

• 2025: 70-92; 4th in AL Central

This team is downright maddening. It has the biggest range of potential outcomes of any team we’ve written about thus far. Like, they could, with a lot of breaks, even win the division. Conversely, I could see them finishing in the basement. My god. This franchise is a mess.

So how would they do it?

Read more

Shifting from the bottom of the division to a team that has World Series hopes in 2026. Can this be the year of the tiger? It is possible and here is why.

Everything for Detroit begins with Tarik Skubal. This is a dude. As long as Skubal stays healthy, he could very well win a third consecutive Cy Young. Skubal is an ace among aces in Major League Baseball and Detroit just need him to keep taking the hill.

Read more

Now that we have finished up the AL West, we turn our attention to the central. This division will have an interesting race up top but also a pair of bad at the bottom to feast on. So yeah, the headline is a couple years early.

BUT

That does not mean there isn’t some interesting things to tune into Sox games to see in 2026. FINALLY! I mean, this is a squad that has lost 223 games over the last two seasons. 223!!! WTF! That is terrible.

Read more