Blacktyperacing's Substack

SUNDAY BET

Black Type Racing — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 09:55:30 GMT

3.10: Back APEROLL (0.5pt e/w 11-2 with Betfred 1/5 odds 1-3)

Good luck if you’re having a bet today

BTR

“All betting tips, analysis, and information provided through this subscription service are the opinions of the author and are intended for entertainment and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Horse racing b…

3.10 Goodwood - Virgin Bet Prestige Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) 7f

Black Type Racing — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 09:31:57 GMT

VERDICT: Four favourites have won the last ten runnings, with a couple next in the betting successful. No double-figure price has won it in that period. Two past winners came into this unbeaten, while amongst the trainers with runners this year, Karl Burke has one win from three runners, and Richard Hannon one from nine starters.

SATURDAY’S BETS

Black Type Racing — Sat, 29 Aug 2026 09:55:30 GMT

**A day to tread with caution, as uncertainty surrounds how much rainfall each course will get ahead of and during racing. I’ve put up plenty of bets for today, though I wrote these up a couple of days ago, with a couple of those below yet to face testing ground.**

Goodwood 2.00 Back FORTY YEARS ON (1pt win 11-4 general); now 2-1

Goodwood 3.10 Back NAQEEB…

4.05 Sandown - Download The BetMGM App Handicap (Class 3) 7f

Black Type Racing — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 16:49:56 GMT

VERDICT: Two favourites have won this in a race in its infancy with just five runnings. Saeed bin Suroor won the first of them in 2021 with an 11-8f, while Tom Clover’s God Of War took this last year at 11-1, and goes again. Two 3yos and 4yos have won it, with one 5yo successful.

Four appeal. I wanted to get away from the favourite, but he’s the only one that comes into this race in good form, so Saeed bin Suroor’s charge DESERT SHADOW (9-5) gets the nod. A different horse since dropping back from middle distances, he’s won his last two, but testing ground would be an unknown. If the rains stay away, he rates a good bet after his 3.25L (value 2L more) over C&D earlier this month.

God Of War (5-1) won this last year on Soft ground, and is 4lb lower now, but the fitting of headgear tempers enthusiasm, having shown little since that success.

Shameful (11-1) has obviously had his issues, with just four starts as a 4yo, but has some smart form and is obviously well regarded, often well backed, but he’s been off the track for 436 days and may need this.

One outsider who would love a deluge is 8yo Mister Bluebird (14-1), while I think Huscal (8-1) has plenty on after his recent win on the AW; best on that surface and mark looks high enough.

Bet: No bet

3.10 Goodwood - Virgin Bet Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2) 1m

Black Type Racing — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:15:08 GMT

VERDICT: Karl Burke and Ralph Beckett have taken this once in the last ten years from two and three runners, respectively, while only three favourites have been successful in that time (only 7 in 26 years). 11 3yos have taken this since 2000, with only four 4yos and six 5yos in that time, while four 6yos have scored.

2.50 Sandown - BetMGM Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) 1m

Black Type Racing — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:48:08 GMT

VERDICT: 3yos have won 16 in the last 26; 4yos 9 wins; 5yos 1 win. It’s been an even split in the last ten years, with 3yos and 4yos winning 5 apiece.

An open renewal, with six of the ten appealing as possible winners.

If ground turns up testing, Love Dynasty (50-1) has to come into it, with so few of these proven on it.

So Regal (9-1) looked smart but quirks a concern, as would testing ground.

Kon Tiki (11-2) bounced back to form last time in a G3 at Ascot, but had the run of the race that day, shoulders a 3lb penalty for that, and is unlikely to want testing ground.

The three that appeal most are Moon Target (100-30), who takes a big drop in class; the yard is in form and has a 26% strike rate here, but some uncertainty at this level regarding ground, for all she won maiden by 5.5L on GS; all G/GF since.

Calender Girl (7-2), who is 4 wins from 5 starts, with a G3 last year and a Listed return after a long lay-off, though again, yet to race on slower than Good.

One that should appreciate the return to testing conditions is unbeaten SECRET OF LIFE (7-2). Ralph Beckett’s charge in 3-3, heavily backed to 2-1f over C&D latest, stepped up to Listed, possibly not as at home on the GF, having won by 3.25L on Soft in a novice at Haydock.

Bet: No bet

3.30 Sandown - BetMGM Solario Stakes (Group 3) 7f

Black Type Racing — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 11:35:31 GMT

VERDICT: This race is very much one to follow the favourites in, winning all but two of the last ten runnings, including the last three, while three have also extended their unbeaten records in that period. Richard Hannon is 0-5, with one placed runner.

2.15 Sandown - Zyn Frontrunner Finish Handicap (Class 2) 1m2f (1m1f209y)

Black Type Racing — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:47:14 GMT

VERDICT: Just two favourites in the last ten years and only three in the last 16 years have won this. Four 3yos, seven 4yos and five 5yos have won it since 2016. Of the trainers with a runner this year, David Menusier, Roger Varian, James Tate and William Haggas all have one win apiece in the last ten years, while John Gosden won the second running of this in 2011 with Fallen Idol.

2.00 Goodwood - Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 7f

Black Type Racing — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 14:48:05 GMT

VERDICT: Clive Cox has won this twice from just 4 runners in the last ten years; better still on the wins front, David O’Meara has three to his name from 11 runners, including three placed efforts. Roger Varian has a win and a place from 3 starters. Andrew Balding is 0-8. Five favourites have been successful, with 3 outsiders, including Darkness, who goes again, at 25-1. Four 5yos have won in that time, and three 3yos, with only one 4yo.

SATURDAY’S BETS

Black Type Racing — Sat, 22 Aug 2026 10:33:21 GMT

York:

1.50 Lay DAMYSUS (1pt at 4-1) - now 11-2

2.25 Back INTO THE LIGHT (0.5pts e/w at 15-2 with W Hill 1/5 odds 1-5) - now 8-1

3.00 Back NOTABLE SPEECH (1pt win at 9-2 on the exchanges) - now 3-1

3.35 Back LOVE ME TENDER (1pt e/w at 13-2 with Coral and Ladbrokes at 1/5 odds 1-5) - now 9-2

3.35 Back KLASSLEADER (0.5pts e/w at 15-2 with Coral and Ladbrokes) -…

2.25 York - Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 1m6f (1m5f188y)

Black Type Racing — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 21:52:01 GMT

VERDICT: Andrew Balding has been flying with his runners this week and boasts an impressive three winners in this in the last six runs, while Charlie Appleby and William Haggas have won this twice, and the Gosden’s once in that time. Concentrating on those with handicap marks between 92-96 have seen seven winners of the last ten, while three favourites have been successful.

1.50 York - Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3) 1m1f (1m177y)

Black Type Racing — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 21:45:28 GMT

VERDICT: 3yos have won three of the last four runnings, while 4yos boast the best record with five wins in the last ten. Karl Burke is 0-4 and William Haggas 0-6 in that time (won it in 2011). Andrew Balding has got his team in flying form this week and won it two years ago with smart mare See The Fire. Four favourites have won the last ten runnings, with two double-figure-priced runners successful, though this is the biggest field in its history, going back to 1992.

3.35 York - Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 1m6f (1m5f188y)

Black Type Racing — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:48:34 GMT

VERDICT: In-form Andrew Balding is 0-14 in the last ten years. Irish yards worth keeping onside with five wins in the last six years: Willie Mullins (2 wins), Ger Lyons and Henry De Bromhead with a win apiece in that period. Just two favourites have won in the last ten years, with five outsiders at odds of 12s, 11s, 16s, 10s and 9-1. Surprisingly, the Gosden’s don’t have a runner this year, having bagged it twice since 2018. Six 6yos, three 5yos and a couple of 4yos have landed the pot in the last ten runnings.

FRIDAY’S BETS

Black Type Racing — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:02:33 GMT

York:

2.25 Back CABALLO DE MAR (1pt win at 11-5 on the exchanges)

2.25 Lay ILLINOIS for top-2 finish (1pt at 5-2 on exchanges)

4.45 Back LAUNCH SEQUENCE (0.5pts e/w at 5-1 with bet365 1/5 odds 1-4)

Good luck if you’re having a bet today

“All betting tips, analysis, and information provided through this subscription service are the opinions of the author and …

3.00 York - Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 1) 7f

Black Type Racing — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:38:14 GMT

VERDICT: The Andrew Balding yard is in flying form and has Marvelman and mare Flora Of Bermuda to add a third success in this over the past ten years, while Charlie Appleby won it with Space Blues in 2021. William Haggas is also having a fair week, but is 0-5 in the same period in this. Four favourites and a couple of second favourites have been successful in the last ten years, while 3yos had a good record, winning it from 2015-2019, but have struck out the last six years; winning seven in all since 2000, though this race was upgraded to Group 1 status last year. 4yos have won this nine times since 2000, and 5yos are responsible for six successes.

3.35 York - Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) 5f

Black Type Racing — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:25:45 GMT

VERDICT: Kevin Ryan has had nine goes in the last ten years without success, though he does have three placed efforts. Seven 2yos have given this a whirl but to no avail, suggesting Pershaada is up against it. Only one favourite has been successful, while three that were second in the betting have won in that time. Only one drawn in double figures has won the last ten.

AMERICAN AFFAIR (8-1) has taken five races to hit his stride this year, having been off the track for almost a year. Aside from a 1L second to reopposing Night Raider in the Group 2 Temple Stakes, he blew out in three other races, including two here, before putting up a spectacular performance to win the King George at Glorious Goodwood last time. The 0.5L win over another re-opposing one in Rumstar doesn’t do full justice to his superiority that day, as he was nicely clear of the rest on the near-side, Rumstar racing on the far-side. Three blowouts at this track would be a mild concern, but he has won a class 2 handicap here by 1L over yet another he faces here in JM Jungle, so I wouldn’t put too much store in those figures. At the prices, he represents a decent each-way fancy.

He’s just favoured over American raider Bacio (9-2). With four wins from five starts, three back in the US, he made the perfect start in the UK to win the 27-runner Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot (5f, GF, 3-1f – fair form), running out one of the most comprehensive winners at the meeting off a mark of 100 from the plum draw in 31. Well drawn again here, he should make his presence felt, and it’s to be hoped he isn’t given as much rope up front as at the Royal meeting. The one drawback for me is this will be his first run on easy ground, which may just blunt his speed.

French raider Rayevka (4-1) heads the market, but his overall form rates just average, save for his most recent when just nabbed in the line by re-opposing Mission Central (10-1) in the 26-runner King Charles III at Royal Ascot. I’m not suggesting it was a fluke, but with just three wins from 13 starts, the best of those in a Group 3 back home, he is passed over.

Asfoora (10-1) is being allowed one more dance before retirement, and for all it would be a great story to add to last year’s win in this, she’s not sure to back up her improved 1.25L fourth to the selection in the King George at Glorious Goodwood.

The 2yo generation don’t have a very good record in this, and for all Pershaada (10-1) looked impressive winning the Group 3 Molecomb at Glorious Goodwood on just her fifth start, picking up impressively when weaving through beaten rivals to score by 2L, this is a different ball game facing her elders.

Bet: No bet

3.00 York - Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) 6f

Black Type Racing — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:14:11 GMT

VERDICT: Just 3 favourites have won the last ten runnings. Kevin Ryan boasts a good record over the years, winning it four times from 2005-2018. Aidan O’Brien is 0-4 in the last ten years, his last win in this with top-class Rock Of Gibraltar back in 2001, while Karl Burke is 0-9.

An uncertainty is that few of these have run on ground slower than Good; so figuring out who will act on easier ground is an unknown.

Very few jump out as potential winners, but I’ve narrowed it down to three.

It wouldn’t be a surprise for any of these to get their head in front, so I’m going to take a punt on the Richard and Peter Fahey-trained MUSSAB (14-1) as an each-way selection. Still a maiden after two starts, he ran here on debut (6f, G, 7-1 – form 1-15) when third of eight, beaten 1.5L, with the Evs F another 1L behind. The Ten Sovereigns colt filled the same position on his latest run, outrunning odds of 66-1 in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot (5f, GF, 66-1) when third, looking most unlucky not to finish closer. Badly hampered inside the final furlong, he was nearest at the finish along with the fourth, beaten 4L. He has a race in him, but at this level is uncertain, though the return to 6f will suit and in an open contest is worth risking at each-way, with Boyle Sports and Skybet going first four home.

Adaay Of Scarlett (9-2) would have been the each-way selection, but his odds look short enough, with connections reaching for headgear after looking the winner at Glorious Goodwood. The most exposed of these, he’s encountering testing ground for the first time and, on the go since April, is passed over.

The biggest threat may come from Arapaho Gold (11-4), who is unbeaten in three starts. A quirky-looking individual, he was taken out of his comfort zone at Newbury last time when upped to Listed company, battling well to win by a neck. Before that he’d won two races at Beverley, and could well be a cut above this lot, but on different ground and playing up before and during the race last time, at the price he is just about given the Spanish elbow.

Others of interest include O’Brien’s Marco Polo (3-1), who is an interesting runner; the bookmakers are split as to his chances. He was an eyecatcher on his only run at the Curragh when the second string. This 525k yearling is a brother to quirky Saber Strike, and could be seen picking up nicely past beaten horses, just meeting one with a superior turn of foot, beaten 1.25L, with stablemate and 7-4f Snowing beaten 5.75L in 6^th. The market should tell us plenty.

While Matteo (16-1) has no doubt been primed for this, with the yard having won it four times. He’s been off the track since May, when he made it two wins from as many starts, so a paddock look is a must, while the market should tell us more.

Bet: No bet

2.25 York - Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) 2m½f (2m56y)

Black Type Racing — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:05:03 GMT

VERDICT: Aidan O’Brien is 0-5 in the last ten years, with Andrew Balding enjoying two wins and the Gosden’s, mostly senior, winning half of the last ten runs, thanks mainly to Stradivarius. Five favourites have won the last ten, with three next in the market successful. 6yos and 5yos have won the most in that period, with only one 4yo landing the spoils.

THURSDAY’S BETS

Black Type Racing — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:10:59 GMT

York:

1.50 Lay LIBERTANGO (1pt at 7-2)

4.10 Back VAUNTINGLY (0.5pts e/w at 6-1 with Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 1-3

Good luck if you’re having a bet today

3.35 York - Legends Global Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) 1m4f (1m3f188y)

Black Type Racing — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 20:43:47 GMT

VERDICT: This is a race Aidan O’Brien does well in, with six winners and three placed runners from 21 starters in the last ten years, and has had nine winners in all, including the last three runnings. It usually pays to stick to the market leader, favourites winning eight of the last ten, the second and third in, taking the other two. John Gosden has won this twice in the last nine years (four in total), both with Enable, but has yet to win it with Thady, while Ralph Beckett is 0-4 in the last ten years. As for age groups, 18 3yos have won in the last 26 years, with 4yos taking the spoils just six times, the last in 2013 with Gosden’s The Fugue. The favourite, Kalpana, will be hoping to be only the fourth 5yo to be crowned in 26 years, Alpinista for Sir Mark Prescott the last of them back in 2022 when sent off 7-4f.

A cracking renewal, with Aidan O’Brien hoping last year’s winner Minnie Hauk (4-1) can get back on track after a poor showing in the King George at Ascot last time out, finishing 17.75L, eighth to Kalpana, perhaps the return to 12f not suiting her as well these days. No real excuse was made for that flop, having previously run a stormer to be a four-length second to top-class Ombudsman at Royal Ascot. That was her best run since running a superb head second to Daryz in the Arc back in October. The winner of five races on the spin last year, that included the Oaks and Irish Oaks, before a 3.5L romp to victory in this over Estrange, she’s proven as much out as in this season, so it’s hard to make too strong a case for. However, on her day she could easily put it up to her main market rivals, so can’t be dismissed out of hand, especially if the ground turns testing.

Joseph O’Brien’s Johanna Walsh (4-1) could be overpriced if able to repeat her Irish Oaks success. Running out one of the most impressive winners of the race in recent years, the daughter of Sea The Stars came home a comfortable 4L ahead of consistent reopposing Inis Mor (18-1) and Sparan Nua (25-1), while Earth Shot (22-1), who had beaten her on the line at Royal Ascot, trailed in a disappointing 11.5L sixth. There’s a feeling she would have mastered the latter in the Group 2 Ribblesdale if held on to longer, and with star of the moment Dylan Browne McMonagle on top again, she may have a few pounds to find with Kalpana, but hailing from an age group that boasts 18 wins in the last 26 runnings, she has plenty of upside, with her best form coming on G/GF.

For all that, it’s so hard to get away from recent King George heroine KALPANA (6-5). Andrew Balding’s 5yo has only one poor run to her name when seventh in last year’s Arc, having excuses that day when racing wide. Winner of three Group 1s, she came back as well as ever to win a Group 3 at Newbury by a neck, when far from fully tuned up, before just losing out by a sht-hd in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes to evergreen 7yo Giavellotto, pulling clear of the rest. She comes here off the back of her best-ever run; when well backed in the morning for the King George, she was seen cruising and still on the bridle approaching the final furlong, just pushed out to hold off old adversary and last year’s horse of the year, Calandagan, by 1.5L. I’m surprised not enough noise was made about the poor ride given to that rival, who had beaten the selection the year before. Surprisingly, Kalpana has never raced at York, but there’s little reason to doubt she’ll act around here, and with favourites boasting a good record, she is taken to add another Group 1 to her C.V.

Earth Shot looked on the up after a close second to Inis Mor at Goodwood by beating Johanna Walsh at Royal Ascot, but she rather blotted her copybook in the Irish Oaks last time. She has plenty to find and now prove in an even better contest, while second home that day, Sparan Nua has undoubtedly got brighter days ahead, though for what reason she was dropped to 1m last time taking on the boys, heaven only knows. She can improve again, but I doubt it will be enough to trouble several of these.

Tattycoram (18-1) is an interesting contender and fully worth her chance in this, having improved plenty this year. After being beaten in a class 3 handicap at HQ’s July course a year ago off a mark of 90, she hasn’t looked back in two starts this term, with a Listed win at Goodwood in May and a 4.5L demolition of her field last time in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks, back at the July course. She had the frustrating Tiffany back in second, who has since gone on to land a Group 1 in Germany. Again, like Sparan Nua, she needs to step up again, and it might be worth noting she was only fourth of six in last year’s Group 3 Musidora Stakes on her only run here.

The one fly in the ointment is another 3yo in Legacy Link (16-1), who was very much on the upgrade this year when tackling further than 1m. Firstly, a nice win in the Group 3 Musidora, before improving again to finish second to impressive Thundering On in the Oaks, herself pulling nicely clear of Sugar Island (150-1). Excuses can be made for her latest start, when I felt running just 13 days after her stamina-sapping run in the Oaks at Royal Ascot was too soon; she was a lay for us that day at 13-8f in the Group 2 Ribblesdale, but faded away in the straight, having been in contention, to finish 7.5L seventh to Earth Shot and Johanna Walsh in second. I’m sure she’s better than that, and the fact she was sent off so short suggests she can play a hand if fit enough following a 63-day absence. The chance of testing ground is a concern, however.

Bet: No bet