I am relaunching my original newsletter, founded in 1982. The legendary CTSL is back! In 2003, I merged the California Technology Stock Letter into Technology Investing, a newsletter I had started for Phillips Publishing (later InvestorPlace). In 2005, we changed the name of the newsletter to New World Investor and expanded coverage to include cryptocurrencies, hard assets like gold and copper, energy, and opportunistic investments like cannabis and online gambling. I bought New World Investor back from InvestorPlace in February 2009.

As you may know, I expect the 36-year cycle to peak again in 2036, which gives us a long runway to capture big profits from the Fourth Industrial Revolution driven by Artificial Intelligence. We’ve all gotten older since the last peak in 2000, but AI-assisted biotechnology is going to let you live a lot longer than you expect. So how much of your stock portfolio do you need to invest in the Fourth Industrial Revolution? There’s an easy-to-calculate answer: 100 minus your age.

What? An 80-year-old needs to have 20% of their stock investments in these stocks? Yes. Partly because they are going to live a lot longer than they expect. Mainly because AI is going to burden, upset, and displace a lot of old economy stocks currently in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. I expect poor performance by those stocks to drag down the overall return on index investments. The portion invested in the Fourth Industrial Revolution will bring total portfolio returns back up.

Having said that, I am not starting CTSL with a bunch of AI recommendations. Between New World Investor and Boomberg, I’ve already nailed the first round of winners: Nvidia, of course, Palantir, Meta Platforms, Intel, Twilio, Micron...

But through cross-investments and contract guarantees, the whole industry has gotten itself levered to OpenAI – and I expect that company to file for bankruptcy in 2027. As we all know, when the paddy wagon comes, it takes all the girls. Some AI stocks will fall less than others, but they’re all going to get hit – and CTSL will have a buy list ready. After the dotcom crash, you could buy Amazon for $9 a share, and the opportunities will be even bigger after OpenAI tanks.

CTSL will never hold more than 12 recommendations. For now, I’m starting with three defense companies, a defense technology and space solutions company, a company that will dominate defense robotics, and a leader in uncrewed aircraft systems. The next five are the leader in AI “co-pilot” software for existing airplanes, the best quantum computing stock, an AI-powered platform that connects billions of records in the $12 trillion healthcare industry, a medical powerhouse that has essentially built a monopoly on life itself (as crazy as that sounds), and the company that runs the customer relationship management and regulatory document systems of the pharmaceutical industry.

The rest of the 12 are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company applying CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing to develop potentially curative, one-time in vivo therapeutics, a dirt-cheap biotech turnaround already getting traction, a biotech that will get FDA approval early in 2027, and the clear leader in next-generation silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries. Some are Core Buys for a full position, and some are Speculative Buys for a ½ position.

CTSL is an ultra-premium service for serious investors only. It is not cheap - $1,995 a year. If you want to join me for this journey, go to https://ctsl.com/subscribe/.

Looking forward to joining up,

Michael Murphy CFA

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

The US Treasury began buying back long-term bonds in 2024. They capped each buyback at $2 billion – much too small to affect long-term yields in a $30 trillion Treasury market. So why did they do it? Because their goal wasn’t to lift bond prices, it was to buy older bonds that are harder to trade, freeing dealers to keep more bonds moving through the market. Treasury buybacks replace older debt with cash raised through the government’s broader financing operations. They do not expand the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet or directly inject newly created reserves into banks.

When you understand that, you can understand why Wednesday’s announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that he is raising the buyback cap to $4 billion is a nothingburger. Yes, the dollar weakened, and bitcoin shortsellers lost $3 billion as cryptocurrencies soared. Yields fell as the long bond rallied. The 30-year Treasury yield fell below 5.20% after reaching 5.337%, its highest level since 2007.

Much fuss was made about the timing. Bessent said the raised buyback is effective September 9, well before the next scheduled update on November 4. But dealers routinely offered ten times as many old bonds as the $2 billion cap, and one look at the chart below will tell you why Bessent moved now.

h/t Yahoo Finance

Back in April, dealers offered as much as 18x the cap to get liquidity. That’s recently fallen to a nearly normal 11x, and Bessent is just taking advantage of the normalization. As you know, I am no fan of the US dollar due to the inability of either party to balance the budget and the craven weakness of the Fed in monetizing the deficits. At some point, something really bad is going to happen to the dollar – but this is not it.

The July Consumer Price Index was another nothingburger – headline up only 3.4% year-over-year (3.5% in June) and 0.1% month-over-month (minus 0.4% in June). Energy prices rose over the course of July after the ceasefire between the US and Iran fell apart and oil prices moved higher, but prices at the pump fell 2.9% from May to June. Broader energy prices declined 1.5%, and you can be sure that will slingshot back in the August 12 number.

h/t Yahoo Finance

Core inflation was up 2.5% from a year ago, and 0.2% from June. I doubt the Fed will make any changes at its September 16 meeting.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 0.9% over the last two weeks, although it set a new intraday record above 7.800 at 7,816.70 and a new closing record at 7,798.99 (so close!). The Index is up 10.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1% in spite of Nvidia’s coming earnings report next week. It is up 12.2% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 5.7%, booking its second two-week gain in a row. It is up 34.0% year-to-date...take that, AI! The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.3% but is still up 20.6% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for the September quarter has already slipped to +4.0%, still almost double the Blue Chip economists. The difficult number to forecast is semiconductor imports for the AI infrastructure buildout, which count as a deduction from Gross Domestic Product.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * why it designs and operates its own custom data centers instead of relying on third-party infrastructure

* * guaranteeing data center investments will be profitable

* * Their upcoming Analyst Day is going to be lit.

* * the organization owns everything, including their data, their insights, their telemetry, and the training and ownership of their models

* * now accepted for tuition payments

* * momentum across all three of their primary target markets

* * June quarter revenues up a sterling 48.6% from last year

* * shares are releasing in phased tranches rather than all at once

* * It’s become obvious that they can show their results are from the drug

* * At some point soon, I expect President Trump to realize the only thing worse than going into the midterms with an active war against Iran is going into the midterms losing an active war against Iran.

* * a Buy for much higher energy prices

* * the company will become the leading vertically integrated “mine-to-rare earth permanent magnet” producer in the US and Europe, controlling the supply chain from mining to permanent magnets

* * these sudden moves clean out some shorts

* * as diversified as Franco Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals, and therefore deserves the same valuation

* * it doesn’t take much to flip crypto sentiment from bearish to bullish

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Tuesday, August 25

Short Interest - After the close

Wednesday, August 26

June quarter GDP - 8:30am – Second estimate – expect a small increase

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index - 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator

NVDA - Nvidia - 5:00pm – Earnings conference call – the whole AI trade depends on this one

Tuesday, September 1

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - 10:00am

Friday, September 4

August payrolls - 8:30am – The monthly follies, when we all pretend the estimate is accurate even though prior months are substantially revised

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was another two-week gain for the portfolio as it added 1.4%. We’re now up 10.1% in 2026 and 200.5% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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RIP Frank Beard, ZZ Top Drummer

“The Man With No Beard”

and if you are interested in their ‘33 Ford 3-window coupe:

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The Forecast Is For A Super El Niño

h/t Statista

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Your reading the 2026 Stanford Emerging Technology Review Editor,

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Remember when the May payrolls report hit? Payrolls soared 172,000, far above the 88.000 expected. April’s jobs report of +115,000 jobs - which itself was a massive beat compared to the +65,000 expected - was revised up to show an even better 179,000 jobs gained. March’s payroll growth was similarly updated from +178,000 to show +214,000, bringing the first monthly gain above 200,000 since early 2024.

Wow, wow, wow. No doubt after such a strong report and the March and April revisions, the Fed would have to raise rates, right? Down went stocks and bonds.

Then came the June report. Payrolls rose by only 57,000, about half of expectations for a gain of 113,000 jobs. Wow, wow, wow. No doubt after such a weak report and downward revisions to the April and May data (+172,000 to +129,000), the Fed would have to cut rates, right? Up went stocks and bonds.

So this morning we got the July report. Economists expected +80,000. The first estimate was minus 23,000 jobs, and that weak June number got revised down a bit to an even weaker +20.000 (to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 65% is “a bit”). The huge May increase of 172,000 jobs, revised down last month to +129,000, was revised down further to +63,000. That is a 63% revision from the original estimate – still “a bit.”

h/t Yahoo Finance

Maybe we should just ask Elon Musk to pull a payrolls estimate out of his butt on the first Friday of every month. It couldn’t be any worse.

The Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth straight meeting, with three dissents wanting a quarter-point increase. Under new Chairman Warsh’s regime, the number of dissents is the best indicator of potential Fed policy changes. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the probability of a Fed hike in September went from 107% before the meeting to 56% after. It closed today at 43%.

Under the Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell Feds, every strong GDP report meant a higher rate path regardless of the mix between consumption (more demand) and capital investment (more supply). But Warsh is a supply-side economics guy. For example, he looks at AI infrastructure demand and asks why the Fed should be trying to dampen it given the longer-run productivity implications. Additionally, the markets are raising the cost of capital for AI investment, so why should the Fed interfere?

The June Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) headline year-over-year number was +3.7%, in line with expectations. That was meaningfully less than May’s 4.1%, but still way above the 2% target. The year-over-year core rate – the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – was +3.29%, also in line and about the same as May’s 3.4%. It was the sixth straight print with a 3-handle.

But there was some good(ish) news. The monthly core rate increase was only +0.132%, the lowest in 15 months and down from +0.3% in May. Earlier this month, New York Fed president John Williams, the Vice Chairman of the FOMC, said that monthly core PCE readings of 0.2% or lower would indicate inflation is dropping toward the Fed’s 2% target as the effects of tariffs wash out.

In the last issue, we saw that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was forecasting June quarter real GDP growth of +1.7%, less than the Blue Chip economist average of +2.1%. The first estimate out this week: +1.5%. The “problem” was strong imports of semiconductors and other components to fuel the AI boom. Imports are subtracted from the GDP number. But with business investment in IT equipment and software for the AI build-out remaining strong and consumers increasing their spending in spite of the surge in gas prices, the economy is OK.

Finally, Wednesday’s Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report showed 593,000 December quarter net job gains, a welcome change from all the downward revisions of the past three years. The labor markets have stabilized and started to recover.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 4.1% over the last two weeks, including another new all-time closing high at 7736.52 on Tuesday. But the S&P has returned exactly 0% from August to Election Day across the last 13 midterm years, so don’t be surprised if the market goes nowhere for a while. The Index is up 12.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.8% as the AI trade returned with a bang. It is up 13.4% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 1.6%, which is better than the series of negative readings we’ve been seeing recently. It is up 26.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 added 2.1% and is up 20.9% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model early estimate for September quarter real GDP growth is a very strong +5.9%. That will come down, but probably not as far as the Blue Chip economists at only +2.0%.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * Wall Street is questioning whether ever-bigger AI investments are generating enough return – and that’s the wrong question.

* * What I didn’t know then but do now is that he also is a brilliant strategic thinker.

* * Supply is tightening in several growth areas, lead times are extending

* * The sovereign AI revolution makes us very optimistic about the future. Yeah, me too. But not Jefferies...

* * Raising guidance in the midst of buyout talks is a good way to get the price up.

* * What these worthies are missing is that the current price of _____ stock already discounts a ______ failure.

* * I really mean it when I say that he is smarter than me

* * enough power to lift a Lambo (nerd alert!)

* * FDA approval at the end of February

* * supporting an increase in our base business revenue expectations for 2026

* * it turned out that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which possibly is running Iran (or not), is “mostly peaceful”

* * exposure to the European natural gas market, where current prices are over $25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)

* * the first, true, rare earth mine-to-magnet platform in the West

* * For our purposes, nothing has really changed

* * clearly demonstrates a material change in the scale of our portfolio

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Wednesday, August 12

Consumer Price Index - 8:30am

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a very good two weeks for the portfolio as it jumped 11.0%. We’re now up 8.6% in 2026 and 196.3% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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RIP Joe Melson, co-writer of:

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Saint-Saëns: Danse macabre (for Marimba and Piano)

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Your fixing everything you own is behind a login your family doesn’t have Editor,

FREE SUBSCRIBERS, if this briefing gave you an edge this week, I’m asking four favors before you go. And they are favors. Nobody’s drafting you. That was the other guys.

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The paywall is not a lock. It is a door. On the other side is the table where the real talking happens, and a seat with your name on it.

You do not have to walk through it. But people like us usually do.

I will see you inside, friend.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

As I expected, the June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% from May, thanks to falling gasoline prices (in turn, thanks to falling oil prices). That was the largest single-month decline since April 2020. The CPI was up 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest yearly reading since March. Inflation is dea...not so fast. The core rate increased 0.0% month-over-month but 2.8% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2.0% target.

h/t Yahoo Finance

Rent of Shelter was up only 0.13% month-over-month, although still up 3.24% year-over-year. It may have begun its deceleration to 2%. The so-called Super Core (non-housing services) fell -0.09% month-over-month (year-over-year +2.67%). Seasonality is likely to push this idiosyncratic series lower through the summer. The tariff impact is over, and core goods are headed back to zero. It is possible that a return to disinflation is coming.

I expect the June 30 core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index – the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – to be a mild +0.2% month-over-month and +3.3% year-over-year. That would be the lowest monthly print since November. The headline PCE should decline 0.07% for June, lowering the year-over-year rate to +3.7%. Still a long way from the +2.0% target, but making enough progress to keep the Fed from raising the funds rate.

The bond market disagrees. The US 30-year bond yield has traded above 5% for 27 days, or about 19% of all sessions. That is the longest stretch since the 50-day stretch in 2007, the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis. Unlike 2007, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark is currently 150 basis points lower than the 30-year. The bond vigilantes are demanding even more compensation for holding the longest maturity sold by the Treasury than at the start of the subprime debt woes! They are worried about the growing debt pile and sticky inflation. They are right about the debt but wrong about inflation. I expect the 30-year to go back under 5%.

Since 2007, the Treasury market has ballooned from $4.5 trillion to $31 trillion. Debt as a percentage of US gross domestic product has doubled to over 100%. Years of excessive spending have propelled annual interest costs above $1 trillion.

Debt concerns prompted Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, a renowned and probably the last bull on the US long bond for decades, to throw in the towel earlier this month, citing a “broader structural backdrop” of larger fiscal deficits and higher capital demand that could keep inflation and long-end yields higher.

With no bond bulls left, the sellers are out of ammo. In every one of the instances that we saw 5% 30-year Treasuries in the last few years, it was quickly bought by pensions and insurers. One of the tells that we can expect that to happen again is that the 2-year to 10-year Treasury notes have increased much less, only back toward levels last seen in early 2025.

So who is buying stocks in this environment? Well, there is record-high foreign demand for US equities, probably to participate in the AI boom their countries are missing:

h/t @rev_cap via Jared Dillian

And options traders are their most bullish on stocks since December 2020, after the total put/call ratio plunged to 0.61:

h/t @Barchart via Jared Dillian

But people are not running wild on margin debt:

h/t @AndreasSteno

Plus, tech insiders are buying into the summer weakness in their stock prices at a robust pace: 28 executives at companies within the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) have purchased their own stock on the open market over the past six months. That’s the highest count on record, according to an analysis by SentimenTrader, and a double since the start of 2026.

h/t @SentimenTrader

Money is coming off the sidelines at a rapid clip, which usually means a correction happens soon. It’s a good time to let cash build up, take some profits like my recent recommendation to sell Apple, and get your buy list ready for some low-ball bids.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 1.8% over the last two weeks, even though the year-over-year index earnings growth rate is tracking at 24.7%. This will mark the second straight quarter of earnings growth above 20%, and the seventh straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The Index is up 8.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.1% as Wall Street bailed on AI stocks. It is also up 8.2% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 7.1% as hedge funds took profits. It is still leading the performance derby, up 24.9% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000, like the 500, dropped 1.8%. It is up 18.5% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for June quarter real GDP ticked up a bit to +1.7%, but it’s still under the Blue Chip economist average of +2.1%. We’ll see the first estimate on July 30.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * 2H26 into 2027 is the highest-probability period of outperformance for ______

* * the top beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout

* * the much-feared AI apocalypse is complete nonsense

* * one of a select group of 25 US large-cap stocks, all with market capitalizations exceeding $10 billion, that have emerged as clear favorites, earning unanimous Buy or Strong Buy ratings from Wall Street analysts

* * expect 53% revenue growth in fiscal 2027, compared to Wall Street’s estimates of around 45%

* * will attract either a competing bidder

* * positions the company for profit margin expansion

* * is all-in on AI, including AGI

* * there is licensing potential for their architecture that would drive high-margin, recurring revenues and significantly expand earnings beyond current manufacturing capacity

* * they have several revenue growth drivers

* * The good news here is

* *A memorandum of understanding between HHS and the Veterans Administration is good news

* * I expect the combination to be approved by the FDA

* * Well, well. It turns out that when the end-user demand for oil and gasoline is growing, and the supply is impaired, using oil in storage to paper over the gap doesn’t work forever.

* * Management expects to return 40% of excess free cash flow to shareholders in 2026, primarily through dividends and share repurchases.

* * Critical minerals generally account for a small share of final product prices

* * positioned for significant upside from rising US natural gas demand, driven by LNG exports and data center power needs

* * Copper isn’t buying gold’s breakdown

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

15 additional entries for paid subscribers!

Wednesday, July 29

Business Employment Dynamics - 10:00am – December quarter revisions

Fed Meeting - 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference

Thursday, July 30

June quarter GDP - 8:30am – First estimate

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index - 8:30am

Tuesday, August 4

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - 10:00am

Friday, August 7

July payrolls - 8:30am

Golden Age Portfolio Update

The portfolio gave back almost exactly half of the gain from the prior two weeks, dipping 3.0%. That puts us down 2.2% in 2026 but still up 166.9% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy

h/t Capital Mischief

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Your writing The Peoplist Manifesto Editor (It’s free!),

FREE SUBSCRIBERS, if this briefing gave you an edge this week, I’m asking four things:

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

The June payrolls report showed only 57,000 jobs added, about half of the 113,000 expected.

h/t Yahoo Finance

As we know, this first guesstimate will probably be revised substantially in the coming months. April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. Maybe even worse, the total employment level fell by more than half a million as people left the labor force. Remarkably, many on Wall Street totally missed the message:

Oh, really? A weakening labor market makes the Fed more focused on the inflation part of their dual mandate? Some folks live in an alternate reality! In fact, of course, this report makes the Fed less likely to raise the Fed funds rate, and keep them stalled unless inflation skyrockets. As we know, the headline Consumer Price Index is about to plummet due to lower oil prices.

Immediately ahead, the second quarter earnings reporting season is going to be a lulu, with total earnings up 22% or more from last year. My friend Keith Fitz-Gerald wrote one of the best summaries of what’s about to happen in his daily 5 With Fitz - (It’s free!):

“Quite a few big-name companies are probably going to report scorching hot numbers this earnings season, including Nvidia, Palantir, Tesla, and JPMorgan Chase, just to name a few at random.

“I was just talking about that on Monday, in fact, when I told the super savvy David Asman that I expect earnings to be 20-25%, perhaps higher.

“The big money knows that those names will be talked about incessantly ahead of time. That’s why they’ll do everything they can to create FOMO – fear of missing out – and drive prices up.

“Then, when earnings come out, they’ll take those who can least afford to screw up for a ride in the after-hours or perhaps even for a day or two afterward by dropping prices faster than an e-ticket ride.

“The big money uses options and gamma risk to manipulate prices, usually to where the computers have determined there is a ton of open interest, trailing stops, and resting orders.

“When they’ve had enough fun, they’ll run prices higher again to trigger all the resting momentum orders and burn any shorts who have piled on using volume and indicators like the RSI to suggest a short-term low.

“And finally, they’ll set up a last major, gut-wrenching drop to wring any last weak hands outta the game AND then… only then… will they set the stage for an actual run higher.

“Psychology matters a lot.”

I think what is driving all this is a pretty big capital spending boom – AI datacenters in the US, potentially rebuilding Iran, certainly rebuilding Middle East energy production – it’s everywhere. The world needs to repair and upgrade all the post-WWII infrastructure that has been deteriorating since it was built, redo and expand electricity grids on every front, and – oh, yeah - every country is announcing more money for defense.

If that sounds like an inflationary boom to you, you’re right. We could see rapidly rising real interest rates. It’s an old saying that truth is the first casualty of war, with bonds a close second. We certainly aren’t going to see a recession with federal budget deficits of 7% of GDP, potentially going to 9% with all the money that’s being spent everywhere. In an inflationary boom, you want to own hard assets and equity. Cash loses its purchasing power, and bonds are certificates of confiscation.

If this quote violates my ban on political arguments, I apologize in advance.

“If you pay reparations, that means you lost the war.” - Louis-Vincent Gave

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 2.5% over the last two weeks, including closing over 7,500 for the first time since June 18. The Index is up 10.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.3% and is up 12.7% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) soared 8.4% as biotech acquisitions continued to stir the pot. It is up 34.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.1%, but is still up 20.6% in 2026. It booked the best first half of the year since the first six months of 1991.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for June quarter real GDP collapsed to +1.3%, well below the Blue Chip consensus for +2.2%.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * Glasses Replace Phones as the Primary Device in 5 Years

* * able to complete more tasks at a higher throughput at 10 times less inference cost per run than some leading closed models

* * targeting $200 million in annual synergies and accretive non-GAAP earnings within 18 months

* * two years from now, we could see $15-$18 billion in free cash flow

* * Hollywood’s under-the-radar pipeline to Gen Z

* * My tennis shoes are laced, but for now, continue to Hold

* * I expect them to be the first company to get the new, rapid two-month review.

* * a range pretty much everybody can live with

* * natural gas will likely surpass oil for the first time as the top energy source that powers the US by the end of this decade

* * the key to the stock will be an update on the timeline to

* * is obviously going to be the biggest beneficiary

* * I expect robust data that will support a substantially increased

* * this cascade could reverse pretty quickly

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Tuesday, July 14

Bastille Day

Consumer Price Index – 8:30am

Friday, July 24

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a very good two weeks for the portfolio as it jumped 5.8%. We’re now up 0.9% in 2026 and 175.3% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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RIP David Clayton-Thomas

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Your doubting making cells young again will work Editor,

Four favors before you go. And they are favors. Nobody’s drafting you. That was the other guys.

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices heated up to the highest level in three years, likely keeping the central bank holding interest rates steady with an eye toward hiking if inflation doesn’t dissipate.

The year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 4.1% in May, in line with expectations, and up from 3.8% in April. Month-over-month, inflation rose 0.4%, a tenth of a percentage point less than expectations and the same level as April.

The core PCE excluding volatile energy and food prices – the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge - was up 3.4% year-over-year, in line with expectations and up a tenth from 3.3% in April. Month-over-month, core inflation rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% in April - the highest level since October 2023.

The plunge in oil prices will keep a lid on the headline number for the next couple of months (June could be negative), but I don’t think the Fed will move rates down or up this year. Eight Fed members agree with me that rates will be steady, but you should know that nine of them expect one hike and six expect two. On average, they expect that headline PCE will end the year at 3.6%, and the core PCE will end at 3.3%. The CME Fed Watch Tool shows 46.8% expect a 25 basis point (¼ of 1%) increase in September.

In this “muddle through” economic environment, some of the $9 trillion in sideline cash is coming back into the market. Some of that cash was built up by investors who feared a recession or depression, some feared runaway inflation, some thought the Iran war would widen, some thought AI was a bubble that would pop and cause a Crash. According to Citadel Securities: “May shattered previous activity records in cash equities. From this peak, activity has accelerated further in June, with volumes this month tracking 9% above May’s record. Nine of the ten largest retail trading days ever observed on our platform have occurred in just the last month, including seven during the first half of June alone.”

h/t Citadel Securities

I am going to revive the California Technology Stock Letter as a standalone publication because I think we are in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is defined by the blurring lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres and driven by artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotechnology. This will drive stocks up to the next 36-year cycle top in 2036.

Of course, there will be pullbacks and maybe even shallow bear markets along the way. But we are starting from a good place. The forward Price/Earnings and P/E to growth (PEG) ratios of Big Tech today, compared to the dotcom bubble, show very different pictures.

h/t @mattcerminaro

AI stock prices have surged because their fundamentals are strong. This is the MegaShift of the next 10 years, and those who avoid it or exit too early will leave years of returns on the table. AI revenues already exceed the huge depreciation costs of giant data centers. Anthropic had its first revenue dollar in 2023. By the end of 2024, its annual recurring revenue reached $1 billion. By April 2026, it had annual recurring revenue of $34 billion. That jumped to $45 billion by May.

In the dotcom boom, telecom companies spent billions burying optical fiber. After the bubble burst, 95% of that fiber sat unused for years. But there are no dark GPUs. Nvidia is sold out and back-ordered. The Nvidia A100 launched in 2020. Six years later, these still sell for nearly the same price as when they launched. Microsoft continued operating cloud machines based on Nvidia’s V100 until September 2025. That chip launched in 2017. Google says some of its seven- and eight-year-old TPUs still operate at 100% utilization. ChatGPT serves more than 900 million people every week.

Unlike the dotcom bubble, the biggest AI spenders are the richest and most profitable companies ever created: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. And they’re funding most of the AI buildout out of cash flow.

OK, OK, but aren’t the valuations insane? Not anymore. In 2021-2022, Nvidia, which dominates AI hardware, traded near 70x forward earnings. Today, its forward P/E ratio sits in the low 20s. Palantir, which dominates AI software, is down 48.3% from its November 2025 high. And the AI boom has years left to run.

Market Outlook

After much hue and cry from both bulls and bears, the S&P 500 lost just 0.5% over the last two weeks. The Index is up 7.5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.7% as weak hands abandoned the AI trade. It is up 9.1% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) soared 14.3% on more merger announcements. It is now up 24.3% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 added 3.9% to an all-time high today and is up 21.2% in 2026, yielding the #1 spot to the XBI.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for June quarter real GDP growth dropped sharply to +2.5% as the Blue Chip economists continued to adjust to various better-than-expected reports.

The US Redbook Index of same-store retail sales continue to flash exceptional strength: +10% year-over-year for the week ending June 20, up from +9.4% the previous week.

h/t Koyfin

Dollar Death Watch

The US dollar broke out to a new 52-week high last Thursday. During the second half of the 1990s, investors around the world wanted exposure to American assets. They wanted US stocks, especially those of US technology companies. They wanted dollars. Capital poured into the United States, and stocks and the dollar benefited. It looks like something similar is happening today in AI stocks, large and small.

Or maybe the dollar is just rallying on expected rate hikes. Ultimately, I don’t think they will happen. The market will re-rate the dollar lower when it realizes no hikes are coming any time soon. Until then, this is a headwind for precious metals prices.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * Sell AAPL for an 82.2% gain

* * trades at 17x 2026 estimated earnings and 15.6x 2027 earnings, supported by double-digit growth, robust operating leverage, and improving margins

* * the AI debate is over. Useful AI has arrived, and it is profitable. Agents are doing real work. Physical AI – cars, robots, surgical – is the next frontier

* * more than 70% CAGR for the power delivery market (800V-to-1V conversion) from about $2 billion in 2026 to around $12 billion by 2028

* * They continue to post robust earnings and revenue momentum...I expect that to continue for years.

* * the beginning of a new era in computing

* * “In the battle for AI, the next few years will be far more important than what might happen a decade or so from now.”

* * The stock will be added to the Russell 3000 and 2000

* * has gone up with the SpaceX IPO, with OpenAI and Anthropic probably next. Then we exit.

* * the European Commission has granted marketing authorization for

* * You don’t create new oil by changing its GPS destination.

* * it’s a massive bear trap

* * expects the deal to be immediately accretive to their cash flow and profit margins

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Tuesday, June 30

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - 10:00am

Thursday, July 2

June payrolls - 8:30am

Friday, July 3

Markets Closed - 250^th Anniversary of the US

Friday, July 10

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was another tough two weeks for our AI-heavy portfolio as it slipped 5.3%. We’re now down 4.6% in 2026, but up 160.1% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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65 or Older? Watch This.

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RIP Walter Parazaider of Chicago

Flute Solo Below

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Your THINKING THE OCEANS ARE NEXT Editor,

FREE SUBSCRIBERS, if this briefing gave you an edge this week, I’m asking three things:

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Inflation and payrolls are up, so the Fed will stay on hold. Wednesday’s May Consumer Price Index report surprised no one. The headline year-over-year increase of 4.2% was the highest since April 2025, with more than 60% of the 0.5% monthly increase from April due to energy prices. The core CPI increase, excluding food and energy, was up 2.9% from May 2025 and 0.2% from April.

h/t Yahoo Finance

The problem with the core number is that while direct higher energy costs are excluded, they leak into other costs like transportation, plastics, and so on. These ripple effects will keep core inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target.

At the same time, the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report and May payrolls report made it clear that the Fed is past their peak worry about the labor market. Job openings surged in April to reach 7.62 million positions, their highest level since May 2024 and well above the 6.87 million consensus for the month, roughly on par with March’s revised level of 6.89 million.

The Job Openings-to-Unemployed ratio rose to 1.033 in April, the first reading since June 2025 that was above the critical 1.0-threshold (orange line). Interestingly, the ratio registered a 0.119 advance from February (pre-Iran War) to April (post-Iran War). Pandemic aside, it was the largest gain over any two-month period on record.

h/t @DiMartinoBooth

The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, blowing past expectations for 88,000 jobs. April’s jobs report, originally a huge beat at 115,000, was revised up to show an even better 179,000 jobs gained. March’s payroll growth was also updated from +185,000 to +214,000, the first monthly gain above 200,000 since early 2024. Economists estimate that the economy needs to create only zero to 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

h/t Yahoo Finance

As you may remember, my rule of thumb is that three straight months of downward or upward revisions to nonfarm payrolls signal a cycle inflection. The labor market is gaining traction after stumbling last year, which gives the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged in the face of rising inflation due to the Iran war.

In response to the solid payrolls report last Friday, the stock market staged a mini-crash. As usual, investors will focus on the better-than-expected outlook one day and worry about sticky interest rates the next day. Sooner or later, they will realize that:

The economy can do OK with the current level of interest rates; there is plenty of opportunity for companies to make money; and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is defined by the blurring lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres and driven by artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotechnology, is going to be the biggest wealth creator of all time.

President Trump is trying to change the narrative about interest rates to “higher is always bad for any reason” and “lower is always good for any reason.” But that is not correct. If rates go to 6% because of a strong economy, with good corporate earnings and a low unemployment rate, it will be a good thing. If rates go to 6% driven by accelerating inflation, it will be a bad thing. The “why” matters more than the level when it comes to interest rates. The worst choice is to use government and monetary policy to force interest rates too low. That creates speculative excesses and malinvestment every time, which often ends in tears.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 2.2% over the last two weeks, but the Index is still up 8.0% year-to-date. The Magnificent Seven are down a median 9.7% in June, while the rest of the S&P 500 has a median gain of 0.3%. That split helps explain why the Index feels heavy even though many stocks are still holding up. The Seven (Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta) have lost about $2 trillion in market value this month.

h/t Yahoo Finance

But the overall S&P 500 Index has reached an all-time high 23 times in 2026, according to Creative Planning chief market strategist Charlie Bilello. It crossed above 7,600 for the first time for its latest high. A year ago, it was at 5,900. Five years ago, it was at 4,200. And 10 years ago, it was at 2,100.

From its inception in 1957 through today, the S&P 500 has hit 1,328 all-time highs, per Creative Planning. That means the S&P 500 has hit a new high once every 19 days on average.

Artificial Intelligence-driven earnings growth is increasingly shaping the trajectory of the Index, according to Evercore ISI, as a small group of technology-focused companies continues to exert an outsized influence on the benchmark index. So the question is: Are we in an AI revolution or an AI bubble that will pop soon?

Corporate earnings and outlooks are strong, and there are other reasons to believe there is no stock market bubble. First, the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) remains below average and well below the prior cycle peak, although today’s SpaceX IPO might open the floodgates.

h/t Goldman Sachs

Second, net US public equity issuance has increased but is below past peaks.

h/t Goldman Sachs

And third, the share of trading activity in unprofitable stocks remains well below past extremes, notably including the dotcom bubble.

h/t Goldman Sachs

The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.1% due to the Mag 7 weakness. It is up 11.0% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 2.4%, but is still up 8.9% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 remains the standout, dropping only 0.5% and booking a 17.7% gain in 2026.

Can sentiment get too bullish? Of course. Will stocks drop after sentiment gets too bullish? Of course. Will the uptrend then resume to 2036? You bet. Will you stay invested, ride out the dip, and make bank on the big uptrend? Up to you.

h/t @Mayhem4Markets

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model June quarter real GDP forecast ticked up to +3.3%, and even the Blue Chip economists have steadily increased their consensus estimate to +2.0%. But notice that the GDPNow forecast is still above the average of the top 10 Blue Chip forecasts.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * Eight AI prompts that can change everything for you and yours

* * uniquely positioned to capitalize on the edge AI inflection

* * a simple market re-rating could drive 25%-100% upside.

* * We’re at the beginning of the AI Supercycle

* * a new gallium nitride (GaN) power portfolio engineered to deliver higher efficiency, greater power density, and improved thermal performance

* * Enterprises are just fed up because they know this doesn’t actually work this way.

* * We are now embarking on a journey to completely go cloud native

* * introduced new optimization and app measurement capabilities

* * he thinks the AI boom will likely be 50 times bigger than the rise of the Internet at the turn of the century

* * The stock is up more than 150%...I think it is time to say thank you very much, and sell

* * as drones gain autonomy, endurance and discharge capability are becoming operational priorities

* * will be added to the broad-market Russell 3000 Index and the small-cap Russell 2000

* *The announcement sets up a showdown with rival Anthropic, which filed confidential paperwork for its own IPO last week.

* * ready to launch after approval

* * Continuing their recent string of clinical trial wins

* * I think we are about to see an explosion in oil prices to over $200 a barrel, possibly toward $300.

* * Outside of North America, there is a full-blown natural gas crisis.

* * The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index just dropped to zero

* * Historically, this has made for a good buying opportunity.

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Wednesday, June 17

Fed Meeting - 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference

Friday, June 19

Markets Closed

Sunday, June 21

Summer Solstice - 10:24am

Thursday, June 25

March Quarter GDP - 8:30am – Third estimate

Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) - 8:30am

Short Interest - After the close

Friday, June 26

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a very tough two weeks for the market and the portfolio as it slipped 7.4%. We’re still up 0.7% in 2026 and 174.7% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

SPECIAL OFFER:

Any AI program can teach you things you didn’t know existed or invent products the world doesn’t know it needs. Microsoft Copilot and Google Gemini are both powerful and free. Below the paywall are eight prompts that can change everything for you and yours. Subscribe to get them, and then tell your kids and grandkids – this is the world they’ll be living in.

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@RodDMartin wrote: “China’s population collapse is now mathematically irreversible. There simply aren’t enough women left of childbearing age. Even if the fertility rate magically returned to replacement level (2.1 children per woman) tomorrow, the country would still lose more than 40% of its population by 2100. It won’t. The real number is 75%. There’s nothing like it in history.”

h/t @RodDMartin

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Tesla Full Self-Driving Is Getting Pretty Good

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Your studying the Secrets of the Super-Agers Editor,

FREE SUBSCRIBERS, if this briefing gave you an edge this week, I’m asking three things:

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Inflation’s back, and there’s gonna be trouble
(Hey-la, hey-la, inflation’s back)
Better buy it quick, ‘cause the price is gonna double
(Hey-la, hey-la, inflation’s back)

(Sung to the tune of My Boyfriend’s Back by the Angels, 1963)

Yesterday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) was both high and completely expected. The headline year-over-year number hit a three-year high in April at +3.8% - right on expectations. It was a clear acceleration from March’s +3.5%. Month-over-month, it was up 0.4%.

The core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator that excludes food and energy prices, was up 3.3%, also right on expectations and up a tenth from March’s 3.2%. It was a 2 ½-year high. Month-over-month, it was up 0.2%.

Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, is sworn in, and there is a growing perception that the Fed may consider raising interest rates, even though Warsh was brought in by President Trump to cut rates.

In the past, the S&P 500 has experienced a drawdown in the first three months following every change in Fed chairs dating back to at least 1930. The average three-month decline has been 12%. However, the individual drawdowns have varied significantly, from as much as -33% after Alan Greenspan took the helm in August 1987 to as little as -2% after Ben Bernanke was confirmed in February 2006.

Of course, every decline was followed by a rally to new highs.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 0.8% over the last two weeks to new intraday and closing highs today. The Index is up 10.5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1%, also to new intraday and closing highs today, as the AI trade returned. It is up 15.8% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 0.8% and is up a respectable 11.5% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 2.6% and leads the 2026 performance derby, up 18.3% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for June quarter real GDP increased to +3.8%, about double the consensus estimate. The economy is A-OK.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * In an agentic world, value accrues to the platform that controls user intent, personal context, app access, permissions, identity, authentication, payments, and trust.

* * The two sure winners in the AI revolution are _____ in hardware and _____ in software

* * an AI-based operating system that includes data sovereignty, zero-trust security, and legal compliance for highly regulated industries and governments. That’s a HUGE market.

* * The scale that the company has, the technology assets that we have, some of the skills and capabilities in terms of risk management are very unique.

* * this is over a 15% free cash flow yield. And their balance sheet is bulletproof

* * Both of these IPOs will drive the hard asset value and stock price even higher.

* * an obvious but severely undervalued beneficiary of AI-enabled Large Language Models

* * SpaceX – perhaps the hottest - has targeted a June 12 IPO

* * We will be launch ready by the end of this year.

* * could become one of my best recommendations ever

* * The company just got accelerated approval from the FDA

* * Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports and production dropped to record lows in March.

* * a Strong Buy, with significant upside supported by a fundamental transformation and attractive valuation.

* * added to its sector Top Picks by Mizuho

* *dollar debasement is no longer merely a thesis. It is now an official budget projection. Don’t say you weren’t warned!

* * All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $1,047 per gold ounce

* * restructured their ownership

* * I still think dollar debasement outweighs interest rates

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Friday, June 5

May payrolls - 8:30am

Tuesday, June 9

Short Interest - After the close

Wednesday, June 10

Consumer Price Index - 8:30am

Friday, June 12

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was another very good two weeks for the portfolio as it jumped 4.4%. We’re now up 8.8% in 2026 and 196.8% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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Mark Cuban on AI

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RIP the GOAT, Sonny Rollins

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Your considering Two Centuries of Innovations and Stock Market Bubbles Editor,

Three favors before you go.

Hit the heart. The algorithm is a slot machine and hearts are quarters.

Hit the restack. Somebody in your network is sitting in their chair right now, outgunned, confused, telling themselves to play it safe. Get them up.

Hit the share button. You know one person who needs to put down the poison.

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Intel (INTC) held their annual meeting (MEETING HERE) and, in light of the stock price, Board Chairman Frank Yeary and CEO Lip Bu-Tan took a victory lap. Intel primarily sells CPUs, the central processing units that run general-purpose software and help coordinate work across a computer system. GPUs like Nvidia’s Blackwell are the high-powered, parallel processing chips doing much of the AI math, but CPUs are becoming more important as AI moves from answering prompts to taking actions.

According to Nvidia’s chief scientist, inference now consumes 90% of all data center power for AI. That’s a complete inversion of where we were just two years ago, and that’s creating massive demand for boring old CPUs.

Arm Holdings’ CEO recently said each gigawatt of AI data center capacity will require 120 million CPU cores. That translates to a 4x surge in CPU demand per data center by 2030, and this is the shift behind the “CPU comeback” story. AI agents need to use tools, move data, call apps, and complete tasks — and that requires more of the CPUs that manage the workflow, not just the GPUs that crunch the model.

h/t Yahoo Finance

I recommended Intel the day Boomberg first published, on October 28, 2022, at $29.07. It’s time to ring the register, book our 174% profit, and say thank you very much. Sell INTC. I’ll add the cash to our war chest, now up to 20.1% of the portfolio.

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I was shocked, shocked to learn that higher energy costs – has anyone noticed them? - drove the headline April Consumer Price Index up 3.8% year-over-year, the biggest annual increase in three years. It was up 0.6% from March.

Both of the people who thought high energy prices wouldn’t leak into other components included in the core index, which excludes energy and food but includes things like airline fares, were also surprised as the core index rose 2.8% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month.

I see three lessons:

1. There is an upward trajectory in inflation that hasn’t shown signs of turning yet.

2. 2% inflation is looking more like a floor than a ceiling

3. The stock market doesn’t care as long as the AI revolution is in full swing. Last Friday’s close marked a sixth winning week for both the S&P and the Nasdaq, the longest streak since 2024.

Yesterday’s much hotter than expected April Producer Price Index increase of 6% year-over-year was far above the +4.8% guesstimates, and very worrying for anyone who doesn’t know that the relationship between wholesale price increases and consumer price increases is vague and tenuous.

I’m sure you are seeing charts like this. Do they worry you?

“Each time concentration levels hit 40%, a crash followed. We are at 41%. But I’m sure this time is different. If only there were a catalyst for the AI bubble unwind.”

h/t @ekwufinance

This is the same kind of scare porn we saw with the inverted yield curve calling for a recession that never materialized. Except this time, these companies are cash rich and immensely profitable. Concentration doesn’t cause crashes. Mispriced expectations do. High concentration just makes the impact bigger when the expectations are wrong.

So are they wrong? AI is going to change the world more than the steam engine, electricity, railroads, the automobile, or the Internet. Corporate earnings are growing, productivity gains are compounding, and the structural tailwinds behind this rally remain intact. Of course, pullbacks will happen as we head up to the 2036 peak. But they are normal corrections within a larger uptrend — not the start of something worse.

Consider Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic. At his company’s developer conference in San Francisco, he delivered a piece of financial candor uncommon for a man running a company being valued at $900 billion.

He said his planning team had built scenarios for 2026: base case, 2x growth for the year. Stretch case, 5x. The outlier nobody actually believed was 10x. Actual is turning out to be 80x. Salesforce took twenty years to hit $30 billion in revenues. Anthropic took thirty months and is now growing eight times faster than its own most aggressive forecast.

Then he said: “That is the reason we have had difficulties with compute.” Translation: “The customers want the product faster than we can build data centers to host them.”

So Anthropic is now renting compute from Amazon, Google, and even SpaceX, the parent of its direct competitor xAI.

Since the launch of Chat GPT, the Nasdaq 100 is up a blistering 140%. In the dot-com bull market, after the IPO of Netscape, the Nasdaq rose 1,060% to its March 2000 peak. According to Oxford Economics, global AI spending will increase from $340 billion in 2025 to around $3 trillion in 2035. AI’s share of total tech spending would grow from less than 4% today to 23%. AI is a real revolution, and you have a front row seat.

h/t LPL Financial

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 4.1% over the last two weeks, booking its 7^th straight up week to yet another all-time high yesterday. The Index is up 9.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 11.5% and as the AI trade returned. It is up 14.6% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 2.7% and is up 11.4% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 edged up 2.3% and is clinging to first place in the 2026 performance derby, up 15.4%.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for June quarter real GDP is +4.0%, far more bullish than the Blue Chip economists.

How is the consumer coping with high inflation? Pretty well, so far. Same-store retail sales grew 7.8% year-over-year in the week ending May 2, a fresh four-year high.

h/t koyfin

Below The Paywall This Week

* * could earn as much as $13 per share

* * a completely private way to interact with AI

* * a GREAT commencement speech

* * we have moved beyond the cyclical trough on a path to recovery

* * How can a company grow 100% in the US with functionally a non-existent salesforce?

* * He is focused on three high value market opportunities

* * a mini-Meta just waiting for Wall Street to discover it

* * their net asset value climbed $42.31 billion in the quarter to over $200 billion

* * The agentic era is here

* * The company has begun commercial production

* * delivering 50% to 100% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026

* * they enter the home stretch on the Phase 3 trials

* * Our strong financial performance and increase in sales guidance reflect the depth and quality of our portfolio, the numerous launches underway, and our continued focus on financial discipline

* * The weekly draws on crude oil and refined products inventories are getting spectacular

* * We have to look through that to see what’s really going on.

* * will benefit as we create domestic supply chains

* * benefiting from the copper rally

* * the metals market is drawing a line between safe-haven demand and hard-infrastructure demand

* * clearly seen in this quarter’s results with materially higher records for revenue, operating cash flow, and earnings

* * The 50-day moving average has now crossed above the 100-day, a “light golden cross.”

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Monday, May 25

Markets Closed - Memorial Day

Wednesday, May 27

Short Interest - After the close

Thursday, May 28

March quarter GDP - 8:30am – Second estimate

Personal Consumption Expenditures Index - 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator

Friday, May 29

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was another good two weeks for the portfolio as it jumped 2.4%. We’re now up 4.2% in 2026 and 184.2% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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RIP Alex Ligertwood

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Your thinking The Oil Market Breaking Point Is Here Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below, it would really help me get the word out.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

In chronological order, this week was about employment, the Fed, and inflation. All against the background of the Iran war, of course.

Employment: The Business Employment Dynamics report revised last September quarter’s job numbers to 7,475,000 gross job gains and 7,634,000 gross job losses, for a net loss of 159,000 jobs. The original payroll reports showed July +73,000, August +22,000, and September +119,000 – a total gain of +214,000. It would be helpful if they could at least get the direction right.

The Fed: It’s turning out there isn’t much difference between “data dependent” and “we don’t know what’s going to happen, so we’ll just react to whatever happens.” The Fed kept interest rates unchanged this week, to no one’s surprise.

Warsh’s appointment is approved. You may be surprised to learn that the Fed members can vote for a different member as Chairman, and J. Powell may be PO’d enough at this point to pull off that rebellion – but I doubt it. Most likely, they’ll vote for Warsh, and the only fun part will be Powell’s decision to stay on, possibly to the end of his term in 2028, instead of letting President Trump appoint another interest rate dove.

Inflation: The Fed’s favorite core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), originally reported as +3.0% year-over-year in February, rose 3.2% in March, right on the consensus expectation (purple line in the graphic below). This is the worst print in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge since November 2023. It was up 0.3% month-over-month. The February PCE was revised up to +3.2% year-over-year and +0.4% month-over-month.

But is it real? As Danielle DiMartino Booth pointed out, the increases in portfolio management fees, which are driven by stock market gains rather than consumer demand, are injecting noise into the core PCE and possibly causing a Fed policy error. Real-time data from Truflation shows its comparable core gauge has dropped from March’s 2.6% year-over-year to 2.3% in April, a new cycle low (aqua line). The current 0.9-point differential between the two is the widest since 2023.

The headline PCE, which includes the 24.1% increase in gasoline prices in March, was up 3.5%, the biggest rise since May 2023, after increasing 2.8% in ‌February.

The War: I am not going to be another instant oil-macro-geopolitical “expert” on the war. I’m as tired of reading those people’s uninformed opinions as you are. But I do have questions, and I think they’re the right ones.

Over the last two months, everyone has been focused on Iran’s pain tolerance and President Trump’s perceived proclivity to TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). [When someone says TACO, I immediately think: “Tell me you haven’t read The Art of the Deal without telling me you haven’t read The Art of the Deal.”]

My questions are: How valuable is regime change in Iran to the Saudi’s and OPEC? How much would they pay for a friendly or at least neutral Iranian regime that didn’t have a nuclear bomb and support terrorism? Or threaten their AI datacenters? Or make their existing customers race to reduce their dependence on OPEC oil?

And then the big one: How can Trump leverage the “price” the Saudis and OPEC would pay as part of a broader chessboard against China? I’d like to see people focused on that instead of the latest change in Trump’s timetable.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 3.5% over the last two weeks to new record intraday and closing highs today. The Index has gained at least 3% three weeks in a row only three times since 1950, and on average was up 33% a year later. It is up 5.3% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite soared 7.4% after being up for 14 days in a row. It also set new intraday and closing highs today. It is now up 7.1% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 3.2%, but is still up 7.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 3.5% and maintains its lead in the 2026 performance derby, up 12.8%.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was too negative for March quarter real GDP, at least so far. The model was predicting +1.2%, but the first estimate released yesterday morning was +2.0%. That was a little below Street expectations for +2.4%, but no one seemed to care. We’ll get the second estimate on May 28; it should be lower.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * amazing platforms for AI and Agentic tools

* * The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user

* * My view of AI is very different from many others in the industry

* * addressable opportunity is 2x to 3x what it is today

* * supplier to Tesla and Elon Musk’s Optimus robot program

* * signed a $300 million contract

* * a unique identity solution for advertising

* * will ‌use the Qualcomm Snapdragon XR

* * trades at a significant discount to its hard net asset value

* * highest revenue and gross profit growth rates in more than three years

* * I expect to see more Wall Street upgrades

* * #1 holding is SpaceX at 17.02% of the fund

* * a dramatically shortened one to two months review time to their PDUFA date

* * The Agency granted priority review, so the PDUFA date is August 27

* * supply will be down for a long time

* * reported an excellent double-beat March quarter

* * reported a double beat

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

13 more events for paid subscribers! All times below are ET.

Tuesday, May 5

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - 10:00am

Friday, May 8

April payrolls - 8:30am

Monday, May 11

Short Interest - After the close

Tuesday, May 12

Consumer Price Index - 8:30am

Friday, May 15

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was an OK two weeks for the portfolio. In spite of all the sturm und drang, it added 1.5%. We’re now up 1.8% in 2026 and 177.6% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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Don’t Pay For

Don’t pay for ChatGPT, use DeepSeek
Don’t pay for Midjourney, use Nano Banana
Don’t pay for Grammarly, use LanguageTool
Don’t pay for ElevenLabs, use VoiceBox
Don’t pay for Runway, use Kling AI
Don’t pay for Grok Imagine, use Qwen
Don’t pay for Suno, use Lyria 3
Don’t pay for Rundown AI, use Sifu Yik
Don’t pay for Canva, use Microsoft Designer
Don’t pay for Descript, use CapCut
Don’t pay for API, use OpenRouter
Don’t pay for Notion AI, use NotebookLM
Don’t pay for Lovable, use Google AI Studio

h/t Sifu Yik Chan

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

RIP Alan Osmond

Songwriter for Donny & Marie, who threatened to sue me for shorting their stock

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Your Investing in the Final Frontier Editor,

FREE SUBSCRIBERS, if this briefing gave you an edge this morning, I’m asking three things:

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

“I thought inflation would go down because of the war,” said no one, ever. The headline Consumer Price Index for March rose 3.3% from last year and 0.9% from February – triple the 0.3% increase in February and the biggest monthly increase since 2022. Even if you drive a Tesla, you will not be surprised to learn that gasoline jumped 21.2%, the single-largest monthly increase since the government began tracking the series in 1967, and that accounted for nearly 3/4 of the monthly gain. The monthly increase was right on expectations and the annual increase was actually 0.1% lower than expected.

Core inflation, ex-energy and food, rose 2.6% year-over-year and 0.2% from February. Both were below the consensus expectations for 0.3% and 2.7%, but well above the Fed’s 2.0% target. High oil prices eventually lead to high everything else prices, from fertilizer to plastics to transportation. Those will be in core inflation for quite a while. Unless the economy weakens dramatically – and as you will see below, March quarter GDP isn’t looking so great – the Fed is going to stand pat.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 6.7% over the last two weeks in the 5^th-quickest recovery ever from a deep pullback. It got back into positive territory for the year and reclaimed all of its losses since the start of the war in Iran. It hit new intraday (7,051.23) and closing (7,041.28) highs today. The last 10 days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950. The S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10 days, which is in the 99.7^th percentile of all 10-day returns. Since 1950, there have been 20 cases where the stock market has risen this much in 10 days. The general conclusion is that these are bullish momentum thrusts.

h/t @warrenpies

The S&P is now up 2.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained a whopping 10.2% and also booked record intraday and closing highs today. It is up 3.7% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 5.1% to new highs yesterday. It is up 11.1% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 7.5% and is up 9.6% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of March quarter real GDP growth has fallen to +1.3%, well below the consensus expectation. The real question will be whether stocks go up because the Fed is more likely to cut, or stocks go down because the economy is stalling out. We’ll find out at 8:30am on April 30, which happens to be the day before the next issue of Boomberg.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * likely to report strong March quarter results

* * As AI adoption accelerates, infrastructure is becoming more complex and heterogeneous, driving increased reliance on

* * a world-class assistant and particularly strong in areas related to personal superintelligence

* * designed to help researchers and enterprises build quantum processors capable of running useful applications

* * the industry is seeing a “meaningful improvement” in demand for several reasons beyond artificial intelligence

* * delivering £5 for every £1 the government has spent

* * two of their fastest-growing products

* * 23% above the high end of their guidance, and 26% better than consensus estimates

* * initial public offering was a big success

* * even a modest increase in traction can serve as a sustainable tailwind for GP$ [gross profit] growth for years to come and drive upside to consensus

* * cheaper than a respin to fix bugs or add features

* * a stellar portfolio of private investments

* * The wall-of-worry persists – there is no crowding here

* * They probably will get a priority review with approval in mid-2027 – the first psychedelic drug approval ever.

* * continued their acquisition binge by buying

* * But here’s the thing - it doesn’t matter. The damage is done

* * strong first quarter 2026 production

* * moved up on barrage of uranium news

* * a bigger beneficiary of the Mideast energy disruption than any oil company

* * They bought the most gold bullion in more than a year in March

* * The portfolio is 95% precious metals, global, and weighted towards lower risk and mining-friendly regions.

* * touched a three-week high as investors turned more optimistic

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Friday, April 24

Short Interest - After the close

Wednesday, April 29

Business Employment Dynamics - 10:00am – September quarter payroll revisions

Fed meeting - 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference

Thursday, April 30

March quarter GDP - 8:30am – First estimate – expect “surprisingly” weak

Personal Consumption Expenditures Index - 8:30am –The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator - expect “surprisingly” strong

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a very good two weeks for the portfolio as it soared 8.5% with almost every stock up. We’re now positive for the year, up 0.3% in 2026 and 173.5% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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One quote that explains the entire Iran war. The negotiating partner who cannot negotiate. The invisible commander who will not. The brotherhood nobody elected. The war machine nobody can turn off. And the 18-month path to a deal that does not exist yet.

h/t Capital Mischief - Charlie Garcia

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h/t Tom Kane

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Your reading the most important medical story of the decade Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Wowser! The economy must be doing great, because this morning’s March payrolls report showed we added 178,000 jobs,soaring past the 65,000 jobs expectation and reversing February’s drop. And we can be sure the March number is accurate, because the February number first guess didn’t have to be revised down...oh, wait a minute. February was revised down, from minus 92,000 to minus 133,000. That’s a 44% negative revision, which shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics models are still lagging reality - by a lot. They are extra confused by the strike of healthcare workers that pulled February’s payrolls down, only for the sector to add 76,000 jobs in March and push overall job growth higher.

Perhaps reality hides in three other numbers:

1. The share of people who have been without work for 27 weeks or more as a percentage of all unemployed ticked up slightly to 25.4%

2. The number of “marginally attached” workers — those who wanted work but hadn’t recently looked for a job — increased by 325,000

3. The number of discouraged workers who believed no jobs were available to them rose by 144,000

It’s too early to say a recession is either imminent or off the table. The S&P 500 fell 4.6% in the March quarter, its weakest first quarter performance since 2022. In addition to the negative of high oil and gasoline prices today outweighing the positive – at least in the market’s mind – of not having Iran blow us all to smithereens tomorrow, investors foolishly gave up on the AI trade that I think will be the biggest investment opportunity ever. Nvidia, which has the first trillion dollar backlog in history, dropped 6.5%, Apple fell 6.6%, Alphabet (Google) was down 8.1%, Amazon booked -9.7%, Meta Platforms -13.3%, Tesla -17.3%, and Microsoft was clobbered for 23.4%. Many of the smaller tech stocks suffered 30% to 40% declines.

And there may be more to come. The Fed tends to follow the 2-year Treasury note rate (tell me again why we need them?), and the most recent bond rout has pushed the 2-year yield above the Fed’s range:

h/t Mohamed El-Erian via @Not_Mr_Risk

Not since 2023, when the Fed was still lifting rates, has the 2-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. Last Friday, 5-year yields surpassed 4% for the first time since July, while the 10-year climbed to 4.39%, the highest since August. The bond vigilantes are upset.

So what should you do? History says:

1. This, too, shall pass

2. Markets will go to new highs in the future

3. The newest technologies will create the most opportunities

Or, to be more direct: Don’t sell. Put together your buy list. Start nibbling or dollar-cost averaging.

Market Outlook

After all the sturm und drang, the S&P 500 lost only 0.3% over the last two weeks. The Index is down 3.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0% and is down 5.9% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) won the two weeks, climbing 5.4% to be up 5.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 sneaked up 1.4% and is up 3.2% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for March quarter real GDP growth has fallen sharply to +1.6%, well below Wall Street’s expectations. That could push the Fed to cut the Fed funds rate.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * about to embark on one of its most lucrative product rollouts since

* * the most advanced processes manufactured in Europe

* * we’ll be well served if they do half of that

* * contract pricing has surged almost 40%

* * it is a core component of US defense

* * the suggested changes could lift the stock price to over

* * netted $369 million

* * Customers can onboard communications workloads to a trusted communications ecosystem in days, not weeks

* * has 17.96% of its assets in SpaceX stock

* * targeting approval in 2027

* * adds to their growing inflammation portfolio

* * The biggest bear thesis is no more.

* * meets the specifications of global manufacturers of rare earth permanent magnets

* * had $1 billion in free cash flow in a single month in January

* * The underlying drivers haven’t gotten any weaker. They’re stronger.

* * For the first time ever, they issued a 5-year outlook

* * a safe haven alternative to gold

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Thursday, April 9

December quarter GDP - 8:30am – Third estimate, should be a small increase

Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) - 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator

Friday, April 10

Consumer Price Index - 8:30am

Short Interest After the close

Golden Age Portfolio Update

In spite of the tough market, this was a good two weeks for the portfolio as it jumped 1.7%. We’re still down 7.6% in 2026 but up 152.1% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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h/t @a16z

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h/t Emerging AI

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RIP Dash Crofts

the singer-songwriter half of Seals and Crofts

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Your considering Iran’s centers of gravity and how they are being attacked Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

At Wednesday’s Fed meeting, Chairman Powell did the only thing he could do: Nothing. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers shed 92,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% . The consensus was at plus 55,000 and the whisper number was plus 65,000.

Time to cut rates?

Nope. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator — the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index —hit a two-year high of 3.1% in January, and that was well before the Iran war. Then the headline Consumer Price Index was up 2.4% year-over-year in February, the same as January. And that was before the recent surge in energy prices that guarantee a hotter reading in March. It increased 0.3% month-over-month.

February’s core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, also the same as January. And while energy itself is excluded, expensive oil causes increased prices for plastics, transportation, fertilizer, and a host of other core CPI components.

So the Fed can’t raise or cut, and JPow said: “The thing I really want to emphasize is that nobody knows. You know, the economic effects could be bigger, they could be smaller, they could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don’t know.”

Seven Fed officials who just don’t know now see no cuts this year, while seven see one cut, two see two cuts, two see three cuts, and one sees four cuts. Headline inflation is now seen rising 2.7%, compared with 2.4% previously. On a core basis, officials see inflation at 2.7%, compared with 2.5% previously. The Fed sees the economy growing 2.4% this year, up from 2.3% previously. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4%, with no significant weakening of the job market in the forecast – which seems very unlikely to me.

Investor’s Intelligence said that the bulls continue to stream toward the exits, with the II bull-bear spread dropping this week to its lowest level since June. All the net gains for the S&P 500 over the past decade have come with the bull-bear spread above 20%. Without bulls, it’s hard to have a bull market.

h/t @WillieDelwiche

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 3.8% over the last two weeks as the war dragged on, pushing it to a 3.5% loss year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.1% and is now down 5.0% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 3.2%, but is still (barely) up 0.3% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost the two weeks, dropping 5.4%, but still is (also barely) up 0.5% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now estimating +2.7% growth for the March quarter.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * competes head on for the entry-level education market – and it’s a better product

* * Invest in AI infrastructure while lowering headcount

* * The AI revolution is accelerating, not decelerating.

* * This will become a multi-trillion-dollar industry.

* * provides customers a complete turnkey AI data center

* * the turnaround is underway

* * plans to win the augmented reality (AR) race

* * sold 23.9 million shares for $383 million

* * a beneficiary of artificial intelligence

* * announced a mid-6-figure contract

* * This is easy money when SpaceX goes public in June

* * they now have the funds to launch

* * we’re at the beginning of a long cycle with a number of product launches underway, more product launches coming, and the strongest pipeline we’ve ever had

* * Middle East oil-storage facilities are reaching capacity

* * well-positioned for a European natural gas price spike

* * they continue to improve their balance sheet

* * the reason they won’t cut is because inflation is stubbornly higher than 2% a year

* * This will let the Company report increased reserves in 2026, further de-risking the project

* * The live webcast will be available via the following link:

* * I think we will look back on these prices in a year and wonder what the sellers were thinking

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Tuesday, March 24

Short Interest - After the close

Friday, April 3

March payrolls – 8:30am

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a very tough two weeks for the stock market, without many places to hide. The portfolio fell 4.9%, so we’re now down 9.2% in 2026 but up 147.8% since inception, with much more to come. Blood is literally in the streets, which means it’s time to load up the truck. Let’s dig in...

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RIP Country Joe McDonald

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Your remembering Project 100,000 Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Well, that got weird in a hurry. Iran striking its regional neighbors was not on my dance card, and obviously, it is a massive escalation. It puts a lot of oil infrastructure at risk and makes private insurance on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz uneconomic. President Trump’s US Navy escorts won’t work – there are too many ships, it’s too costly, and some US sailors are going to die. His insurance plan won’t work, either, unless US taxpayers are happy subsidizing losses on oil shipments destined for other countries. Without decisive regime change soon, it’s reasonable to expect a substantial, enduring risk premium in the price of oil, especially with the “twilight of shale” and rapid OPEC spare capacity exhaustion happening in real-time.

For US stocks, this is coinciding with a massive rotation out of technology into hard assets like energy. In other words, 32% of the S&P500 is now chasing less than 6%. Many of the big tech companies have been hammered so hard that they are now trading at the same multiples as staid, boring old consumer staples choices. That’s only happened three times in the past seven years: COVID, the 2022 bear market, and Liberation Day. Each of those preceded another running of the bulls.

When they zig, we zag. This gives us an opportunity to buy the AI winners like Palantir at a discount, pile into Nvidia, and maybe even snag Infleqtion (INFQ), the real quantum computing winner, in mid-single digits.

According to FactSet, about 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported December quarter results. 75% have beaten on revenue, and 75% have beaten on earnings. The year-over-year earnings growth rate is 14.2%, marking the 5^th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the Index. Business is good.

Market Outlook

I know it felt worse, but the S&P 500 lost just 0.5% over the last two weeks. The Index is now down 0.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% (surprise!) but is still down 2.1% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 2.2% even though war, high oil prices, and inflation have zero impact on biotech’s value. It is still up 1.6% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 3.0% and is up 4.2% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for the March quarter is estimating 3.0% growth. It’s another strong quarter, and even the Blue Chips are getting more enthusiastic.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * carefully going down market to lure in more customers

* * the organization is flatter, more nimble, more open to partners, and more focused on AI opportunities. No surprise there.

* * their total buildout could equal an entire electric grid all by itself

* * Here is a complete list of companies at a revenue run rate of $250 billion or more growing faster than 70% a year:

* * things are good enough that they have scheduled a Financial Analyst Day in New York City.

* * generating insights from an astonishing amount of classified data

* * preparing for the possibility of an unwanted takeover offer

* * one of the fastest-growing consumer subscription services globally, with subscriber growth every quarter

* * a rapid run-up in the stock that will be reflected in _______’s price

* * steady progress towards their target financial model, and AI is a huge tailwind

* * completing smartphone qualification and moving into commercial production

* * guided to a forecast for nearly 50% sequential revenue growth in the March quarter

* * now has 17.96% of its assets in SpaceX

* * I don’t think they’ll ever do another offering.

* * The FDA has accepted the Biologics Licensing Application

* * what’s going to be revealed is a fundamental supply shortage

* * full-year 2026 guidance is unchanged

* * operational ramp-up milestones set the stage for significant future cash flow generation, market differentiation, and competitive advantages

* * European natural gas futures spiked over 50%

* * a life of resource extension of operating rights

* * traders can always try to run the stop losses and shake out some weak hands and cheap metal.

* * now has the largest and most diversified portfolio of mining assets in the royalty sector

* * The ETF flows suggest this isn’t just a short squeeze.

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Sunday, March 8

Daylight Saving Time - 2:00am your local time

Tuesday, March 10

Short Interest - After the close

Wednesday, March 11

Consumer Price Index - 8:30am

Friday, March 13

December quarter GDP - 8:30am – Second estimate: I expect an increase.

Tuesday, March 17

Saint Patrick’s Day!

Wednesday, March 18

Fed Meeting - 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference

Friday, March 20

Spring Equinox - 3:45pm

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a tough two weeks for the stock market, but a resilient two weeks for the Golden Age Portfolio as it added 1.3%. Yeah, we’re still down 4.5% in 2026, but we’re up 160.7% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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In Elon Musk’s 2018 leaked Tesla memo, he lays out 7 blunt rules for getting more done:

h/t @BigBrainBizness

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RIP Neil Sedaka

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And RIP John Hammond

Hammond was the only person who had both Eric Clapton and Jimi Hendrix in his band at the same time.

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Your understanding How America Goes Bankrupt Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Jobs: ___ Strong, booming

_√_ Not so bad

___ Terrible, recession imminent

Inflation: ____ High, out of control

__√__ Not so bad

____ Low, under control

Jobs: The economy supposedly added 130,000 jobs in January - far more than economists had anticipated - while the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.3%. Job gains were narrowly based and concentrated in construction and health care. Healthcare and social assistance together accounted for 95% or 124,000 of the jobs gained last month, continuing last year’s trend of those sectors driving what little payroll growth existed.

I said “supposedly” because, as you know, the monthly numbers are garbage not trustworthy. According to recently updated 2025 numbers, the economy gained a paltry 181,000 jobs for the entire year, revised down a tad from the earlier reported growth of 584,000 jobs. That’s an average of 15,000 jobs a month, the slowest pace of job growth outside a recession since 2003. For those who still think the monthly numbers mean anything useful for investors, the revisions so far show more than a million fewer jobs than previously estimated by the end of 2025, and four months last year with outright declines in payrolls.

Inflation: The headline Consumer Price Index report for January showed that consumer prices increased 2.4% on an annual basis, down from 2.7% last month, and 0.2% in January from December. That was better than economists’ expectations for an annual increase of 2.5% and a 0.3% monthly increase. More than likely, the tariff-induced price increases on the goods side are largely behind us.

Core prices rose 2.5% over the prior year and 0.3% from December, both as expected, and the slowest annual increase in core inflation since March 2021. At 2.5% a year, your savings will lose half of their value in only 28 years. If the Fed is successful in getting inflation under 2%, it will take 35 years for your savings to lose half their value. Feel better?

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 0.9% over the last two volatile weeks. The Index is barely up 0.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% in spite of Wall Street trying to shake out the weak hands in tech stocks. It is down 2.4% for the year due to the aforementioned shakeout. Don’t get sucked in. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 5.0% as the stealth biotech rally rolled on. It’s now up 3.9% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 3.4% as the not-so-stealthy small-cap rally continued, and is at the top of the leaderboard - up 7.4% in 2026.

Small-caps (Russell 2000 & S&P 600) have outperformed the Nasdaq-100 by 13% over the past 6 months - the strongest relative run in five years during a rising market.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model outlook for December quarter real GDP fell to +3.0% Thursday morning due to the dramatic drop in the balance of trade. We got the first estimate this morning, and it was only +1.4%, supposedly due to the 43-day government shutdown. I expect that to be revised up on March 13, when the second estimate is announced, and maybe up a bit again on April 9, when we get the third estimate.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * working on new categories of products that are enabled by artificial intelligence

* * integrating frontier research with industrial-scale infrastructure

* * reducing cost per token by up to 10x with open source models across industries with optimized inference stacks running on

* * The stock trades at a reasonable forward P/E ratio of 22.3x and has an elevated short interest ratio of 8.83%.

* * delivering total revenue growth, acceleration, and margin expansion at scale that is unlike anything else in software

* * The fundamentals remain strong with expanding revenue, healthy margins, and analyst projections for earnings per share and revenue growth through 2028

* * Inside the training, monetization, and discovery engine that powered one up-and-comer to make $1M in five weeks

* * It will be a big deal that pushes ______ higher.

* * quickly becoming a foundational infrastructure layer in the age of AI

* * has a 24.88% short interest

* * They are the prime contractor on this key initiative

* * successful achievement of the primary endpoint in the ongoing Phase 3

* * has already exceeded our coverage goals and is rapidly gaining market share

* * I have two pieces of news for them

* * a Buy for much higher energy prices

* * strong policy support for securing domestic supply and production capabilities

* * America’s premier natural gas company for a long time to come

* * The value of China’s gold reserves increased to $369.58 billion at the end of January

* * netting about $69.75 million

* * an expanded business designed to perform in any metal price environment

* * their biggest buying spree since November

* * It looks like capital flight to me.

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin

* * the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum.

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Wednesday, February 25

Short Interest - After the close

Thursday, February 26

Business Employment Dynamics - 10:00am

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a meh two weeks for the portfolio as it added 0.9%. We’re now down 5.7% in 2026 (I corrected a spreadsheet error) and up 157.3% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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You Have 5,000 Days To Get Ready For The AI World

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h/t Anthropic

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RIP Robert Duval

Self-Transformation and the Courage to Live a Human Life

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Your learning from Rick Rule Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

I‘ve been trying to put together all the weird, disparate news we’re seeing to come up with a Theory of Everything. Some of what follows is just me thinking out loud, and I’d be really interested in your take in the Comments (if you want everyone to see it) or an email to NewWorldInvestor@gmail.com for my eyes only.

Here’s what I’m working with. I think it’s all connected:

1. The dramatic precious metals moves, especially silver

2. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman

3. Bank regulation

4. Inflation

5. Employment

6. The ever-changing tariffs

7. Reshoring manufacturing

8. The stablecoin surge

9. Venezuela

10. Iran

11. Russia (and Ukraine)

12. AI

13. The inevitable bankruptcy of OpenAI in 2027, and maybe this year

It looks to me like President Trump has realized the US economy actually could collapse into a depression due to years of fiscal mismanagement that has left the government heavily indebted with a weakening currency. He is throwing a Hail Mary pass to restore the country to the undisputed #1 power in the world. And I think it will work, even though we should still expect the next big cycle top around 2036, 36 years after the 2000 top, to be followed by the usual ~16 years of difficult times, similar to 2001-2015.

For decades, the dollar has been the world’s reserve currency. We’ve been able to print it freely, export inflation via cheap imports, mostly from Asia, and finance the deficits with foreign buying of Treasury bills. But when that loop fails because tariffs increase import costs and foreigners sell Treasuries to buy precious metals, yields can spike, the dollar can weaken or collapse, and we get hyperinflation. That hasn’t happened yet because stablecoins pegged to dollar equivalents have ballooned into a massive liquidity buffer that buys Treasuries. But it could happen if things don’t fundamentally change.

So here’s the Trump bet. By putting tariffs on non-US manufacturing and providing domestic manufacturing subsidies, the returning dollars go into plant, equipment, and rebuilt supply chains instead of igniting inflation in consumer markets. I expect a significant relaxation of bank regulation to encourage domestic lending while, at the same time, interest rates slowly fall. The market has decided that Kevin Warsh is Paul Volcker – he’s not. He is more likely to focus on shrinking the Fed’s $6.5 trillion balance sheet (7x pre-2008 levels) – a tightening that will allow the Fed to cut short rates even more to offset the tightening.

The surge in silver to $121.30 was more important than last Friday’s 31.3% collapse to $78.29. Sure, it let the silver shorts cover at lower prices – but they still took big losses. With the shorts badly bruised, I expect silver to bounce back pretty quickly because it’s a strategic policy to inflate input costs for China’s solar, electronics, and EV industries. That’s why China put export controls on silver on January 1 to protect their domestic supply. They saw this coming. By the way, did you notice the color of the First Lady’s dress on New Year’s Eve?

That brings us to Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. All three supply meaningful volumes of oil to China, Venezuela through debt-for-crude channels, Iran, and Russia via sanctions-evasion routes that feed Chinese refineries. The US can disrupt those flows by taking over Venezuela, intensifying pressure on Iran, and brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. If those barrels are redirected, curtailed, or priced out of reach, China’s energy costs rise, manufacturing margins shrink again, and Beijing loses another competitive edge.

The overthrow of Maduro moved Venezuela from the Chinese camp to the US camp in one swoop. Venezuela was more of a Russian puppet, but still with very strong ties to China that are now being cut.

Iran supplies more than 20% of China’s oil imports and is China’s inroad into the Middle East. The Administration’s ultimate goal obviously is regime change, but a new nuclear + oil deal would be a very good first step that pulls Iran away from China’s grip.

Russia is China’s most important ally due to their size and energy reserves. The President is actively trying to restore US-Russian relations and include Russia in Western trade again.

And it’s not just Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. President Trump is going after most of China’s best allies. Pakistan is a historic Chinese ally, mostly due to their common rivalry with India. However, Pakistan looked to President Trump when peace had to be brokered with India and subsequently nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan holds strong ties to both China and the US, but the US link is improving under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who is taking part in the Board of Peace.

Brazil is a major exporter of soybeans and other critical goods to China. Although they reacted negatively to the overthrow of Maduro, Trump was very quick to set up a call with President Lula, with whom he is seemingly building a great relationship. The US wants to rein in Brazil and pull them away from China, especially because they, like Venezuela, are in the Western Hemisphere (the Monroe Doctrine redux).

President Trump has made it a point to include countries of emerging strategic importance like Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Indonesia in the Board of Peace. Those all are countries with strong ties to China.

Winning the AI race becomes a huge priority and, I would say, a huge risk. China is really good at AI. So are we. One big stumbling block: I think OpenAI’s business model is broken, in large part due to competition from Google, Grok, and many others. I expect them to file for bankruptcy by the end of 2027, or earlier if Nvidia, Softbank, Amazon, and Microsoft stop buying billions of dollars of fresh equity. (According to The Information, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are about to invest another $60 billion in OpenAI.) Everyone will take a huge one-time write-off of their OpenAI investment, and Wall Street won’t blink.

The Bottom Line: Endless dollar printing offset by endless imports and foreign Treasury demand is over. President Trump’s response is to pull capital home, rebuild industrial muscle, weaponize commodity prices against China, and use allies’ security needs to align their priorities. Returning dollars get mopped up by stablecoins or redirected into factories. Costs are inflated for China, their oil flows are squeezed, their demographic disaster plays out, and the dollar’s hegemony is extended. At least, that’s the plan (IMHO).

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Meanwhile, back in the real world, Fed officials left interest rates unchanged and signaled a more cautious approach to potential future adjustments. But the September quarter productivity revision was unchanged at +4.9%, with unit labor costs unchanged at -1.9%. This is the golden ticket for the economy because it reflects strong growth without labor cost inflation.

There’s not only no labor cost inflation, but there also aren’t many jobs. Thursday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed there were 6.5 million jobs open at the end of December, the lowest level since 2020. Economists polled by Bloomberg had projected 7.25 million openings for the month. Oops.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 1.7% over the last two weeks as completely groundless fears that AI is not the Next Big Thing sparked a risk-off environment. The Index is down 0.7% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.8% and is now down 3.0% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 8.2% as the risk-off crowd bailed on the sector or went short. It is down only 0.1% year-to-date thanks to a generally strong January. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 5.2% in this risk-off environment but is still up 3.9% in 2026.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of December quarter growth eased off to +4.2%. That’s still robust growth that will obliterate the +1% number expected by the Blue Chip economists.

Dollar Death Watch

President Trump indicated he’s comfortable with the dollar’s recent decline, helping send the currency to its lowest level since early 2022.“No, I think it’s great,” Trump told reporters when asked if he was worried about the currency’s drop. “I think the value of the dollar — look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great.”

Really?

h/t Yahoo Finance

Trump has accused other countries of seeking weaker exchange rates to boost exports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has highlighted the distinction between the dollar’s price and its value as a reserve currency. So these latest comments were seen as giving a green light to traders to sell the greenback. It’s obvious that the Administration wants a weaker dollar in order to make exports more competitive and imports more expensive. They’re taking a calculated risk that a weaker currency will help the economy without getting disorderly.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * There aren’t too many companies with revenues over half a trillion dollars a year growing over 15% a year

* * In what could be a really big deal...

* * They have the talent to stay almost on the bleeding edge while having the business model ability to

* * will report blowout earnings

* * stock buyback program that returns 100% of free cash flow to shareholders

* * The details were stunning

* * A lot of people are worried about the impact of power looms on weavers...or, wait, I mean AI on workers. Sorry for the sarcasm, but there has never been a new technology that reduces job opportunities. The reason is simple: new technologies enable new businesses that couldn’t exist before. The reason for the worry is also simple: people are bad at imagining new businesses that are enabled by the new technology.

* * they replaced him with someone who’s probably better

* * transitioning into a diversified, monetizable ecosystem with multiple high-margin revenue streams and clear operating leverage

* * will jump in mid-June, when SpaceX goes public

* * This is especially tragic because so many patients are veterans. I think the decision could be reversed

* * We are now in the worst part (March quarter of 2026) of the most anticipated oil supply glut in history, and oil is trading at $63. What happens to the price of oil when we emerge from the “glut?”

* * an under-the-radar way to own energy assets

* * they are building a vertically integrated uranium and rare earth elements powerhouse

* * has a lot more operating leverage than that

* * will benefit for years from increasing copper prices

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Tuesday, February 10

Short interest - After the close

Wednesday, February 11

January payrolls – 8:30am – +70,000 expected; December was +50,000

Friday, February 13

Consumer Price Index – 8:30m

Friday, February 20

December quarter GDP – 8:30am – First estimate

Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

The risk-off environment and I-hate-AI fad made for a crappy two weeks for the portfolio as it fell 7.6%. We’re now up 42.2% in 2026 and 155.1% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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RIP Lamonte McLemore

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Your knowing everything is computer Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Front Matters: In 2001, I merged my California Technology Stock Letter into another newsletter I had founded, Technology Investing. In 2005, InvestorPlace asked me to expand Technology Investing to the more generalized New World Investor, from which Boomberg is extracted. So over the years I added coverage of precious metals, energy, commodities, foreign stocks, cannabis, and more. After last year’s +52.9% overall returns, I realized I’d like to restart a more focused California Technology Stock Letter for the AI/nuclear age, covering only tech and a little biotech.

I started CTSL in 1982 to bring the institutional-quality technology stock research I was doing for mutual fund management companies to as many individual investors as possible. I want to continue the CTSL legacy, but I have never been a good marketer of newsletters. So I have a question for you: Do you know anyone experienced who could market CTSL and would like to partner with me? You, a friend, a family member, or a colleague? If so, please ask them to email newworldinvestor@gmail.com with the subject line “Marketing.”

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We have a couple of new inflation numbers that really don’t change anything. Both the headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures Indices (PCE) for November were up 2.8% year-over-year a tenth faster than October’s 2.7%. On a month-over-month basis, both were up 0.2%, a compounded annual rate of 2.43%. That’s above the Fed’s 2.0% target, but not by much.

The core December Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at the slowest annual rate since March 2021 - 2.6% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month. Headline consumer prices rose 0.3% from November and 2.7% from last year. Because the December jobs report showed the unemployment rate falling from a four-year high, the CME FedWatch Tool shows 95% do not expect a quarter-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting. While that’s probably directionally right – they won’t cut – I’d put the odds more at 55-45 than 95-5.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 0.1% over the last two weeks, although it did set new all-time highs on January 12 at 6,986.33 intraday and 6,977.27 closing. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%, also after setting new highs. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 6.4% as the big JPMorgan Healthcare Conference kept the biotech bull market rolling. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 4.4% and is up 9.5% in 2026.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The MoneyShow Top Picks report is out and it’s FREE - CLICK HERE. My large company pick is Onsemi and my small company pick is QuickLogic.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of December quarter real GDP has soared to +5.4% based on stronger personal consumption expenditures growth and private domestic investment growth. With the economy doing this well even after absorbing the impact of tariffs, the Fed is in no hurry to cut further.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * Wall Street is excited about it, but I’m not.

* * A double beat!

* * The potential increase is driven by strong demand

* * In just seven months, annualized revenue at 32 AI-native companies selling AI models or apps has doubled, from $15 billion to more than $30 billion.

* * Institutional ownership has increased to over

* * a multi-channel orchestration platform that helps brands sell across agentic surfaces

* * moving in the direction of a fully automated campaign creation suite

* * That level of advancement is unprecedented in the smartphone category

* * engineers achieved a 50% power efficiency improvement by replacing software with

* * SpaceX is lining up investment bankers at four Wall Street firms

* * the stock will tank and we will buy it back

* * Since 2020, the company has returned 56% of free cash flow to shareholders

* * Is the EIA quietly turning bullish?

* * the largest, fully integrated rare earth elements (REE) “mine-to-metal & alloy” producer outside of China

* * Forecasts call for a deep freeze to grip the eastern two-thirds of North America later this week and into much of next week

* * I think we can keep buying it as copper heads for $7+ a pound

* * gold, silver, copper, and tin all hit record highs

* * miners will likely catch up soon by rocketing higher

* * During the fourth quarter they repaid $325 million of debt

* * the total crypto market cap has remained above about $3 trillion

* *Ethereum will hit $40,000 by 2030, beating bitcoin

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Tuesday, January 27

Short Interest - After the close

Wednesday, January 28

Fed Meeting - 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference

Tuesday, February 3

The Day The Music Died

Friday, February 6

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a meh two weeks for the portfolio as in spite of the turmoil it eked out a 0.1% gain. We’re now up 175.9% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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RIP Scott Adams

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Your reading 2026 market outlooks Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

Read more

Howdy, Bull-Riders:

This is our year-end performance review. Overall, we had a great year, up 62.2%, thanks primarily to three factors:

** Our precious metals holdings were up 153.6%

* * Our two biotechs, one large and one small, were up 57.7%

* * Our commodities were up 56.1%, including our uranium/rare earths stock up 183.4%

** The large techs were up 39.9%, including 128.9% on Micron (MU – now sold) in less than 10 months. Only two of the Magnificent 7, Google and Nvidia, beat the S&P 500 last year.

All the sector details are below the paywall, and I expect another great year in 2026. If you’ve got this, great! If not, I’d be honored to help.

Obviously, in spite of tariff turmoil, the Fed, a government shutdown, increasing unemployment, and consumer confidence in the toilet, it was a bull market. The S&P posted a respectable +16.4% capital gain (I’ve not included dividends). It’s interesting that in the 23 prior years when the S&P 500 was up between 10% and 20%, the median gain the following year was 11.8%, with positive returns 70% of the time. It’s also interesting to note that it has been more common for the S&P 500 to be up 20% to 30% than it has been for it to be up between 0% and 10%.

h/t @bespokeinvest

I want to comment on Oil, which closed out 2025 with its steepest annual loss since 2020 as the market confronts wide-ranging geopolitical risks and steadily rising supplies across the globe. West Texas Intermediate fell 20% for the year. Traders still believe a punishing surplus is expected to weigh on prices in 2026 – I don’t believe it.

OPEC+ has decided to hold off on further output hikes. US crude oil stocks decline week after week, including another 3.8 billion barrels announced this week. In 2025, the tank farms at Cushing, Oklahoma, the pricing point for West Texas Intermediate futures, had its lowest annual average storage level since 2008. China, which had been buying 800,000 barrels a day of sanctioned Venezuelan oil, now has to turn to the world market. Managed money short positioning is now at a multi-decade high and the negative sentiment surrounding the Venezuela developments is overblown. Oil is at 20-year lows in real terms, yet people are calling for $30–$50 glut bear scenarios.

I think the real downside risk is maybe 5%–10%, with a potential upside of 100%-200%. That’s the very definition of an asymmetric risk/reward, and I like that trade. But, fair warning, I’ve been wrong so far.

Venezuela’s oil: API Gravity: 8° (”Extra Heavy”); Sulfur: High (”Sour”), Metals: Yes, lots of vanadium (poison to refinery catalysts). This is not Light Sweet Crude, it’s road pavement that hasn’t dried yet. Chemistry is a wonderful thing, and the refining industry can turn this sludge into jet fuel, but it costs a fortune. In reality, Venezuela’s economically recoverable reserves are 25 billion barrels of heavy, sour, metallic oil.

And check out this post on X from @RazorOil: “As a heavy oil expert, with 18 patents in heavy oil production technology development and optimizations, and prior experience as a senior technical SME at a supermajor U.S. oil company that Venezuela still owes money to….I wanted to correct some of the misguided takes circulating on X.

“While Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, those figures do not translate directly into immediate production flow rates or rapid incremental increases, which demand substantial time and investment. With the next budget season not arriving until Q3, U.S. producers are currently committed to ongoing projects and contractual obligations. Venezuela’s oil faces uniquely difficult geology, low ultimate recovery rates, and severe infrastructure deficits.

“From my work alongside Venezuelans who actually operated projects there, many cited rampant corruption and logistical nightmares as reasons they left the country. At current oil prices, the massive capital required for meaningful production growth simply isn’t justified—one leading expert and good friend, estimates it would take at least 3 years to double output, adding about 1 million bbl/d… so not by next week….

“Unlike Canada, Venezuela has zero SAGD [steam-assisted gravity drainage] projects ZERO !!; any greenfield heavy oil development there would require at least $30,000 per flowing barrel, meaning roughly $1 billion!! for every 30,000 bbl/d increment achievable in perhaps three years. They mainly produce cold production, which is cheaper I’ll admit!! But with slower flow rates and rely on diluents and polymers which are enhanced recoveries (EOR) that require capital and supply of these chemicals and infrastructure… more money.

“Finally, people seem to overlook the U.S. Midwest (PADD 2), which already processes around 4 million bbl/d of crude, predominantly from Canada. Venezuela lacks the logistical or practical means to displace that supply. Hope this clarifies things for everyone and helps the understanding of this volatile situation.”

On to 2026 - Yesterday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a larger-than-expected 303,000 decline in US job openings to a 14-month low of 7.146 million in November. October’s openings were revised down to 7.449 million. There were 0.91 job openings for every unemployed person in November, the lowest level seen since March 2021. Employers remained hesitant to carry out mass layoffs, keeping the labor market in a “no hire, no fire” state.

Today’s December payrolls report showed only 50,000 new jobs, below the 60,000 estimate, and less than the 64,000 originally reported for November, which was revised down to 56,000. October was revised from a loss of 105,000 jobs to a loss of 173,000 jobs. 2025 was the worst year for annual job growth outside of a recession since 2003.

December probably will be revised down next month, and the Fed knows it. I expect another quarter-point cut on January 28.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 0.2% over the last two weeks as Santa forgot his year-end rally. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 2.1%.

The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 2.2%. In fact, the “Animal Spirits” stocks in the Russell, S&P 500 Low Quality Index, S&P 500 High Beta Index, and IPOX-100 US IPO Index are already leading the stock market. That’s the signal of a new risk-on bull market.

h/t @jimwpaulsen

The fractal dimension is giving the first signs of an impending consolidation, right on schedule.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for December quarter real GDP doubled to +5.4% on holiday strength in personal consumption expenditures growth and a sharp drop in imports, then eased back to +5.1% this morning on weak housing numbers.

FWIW, I think that’s way too high while, at the same time, the Blue Chip consensus of +0.9% is way too low. I’m expecting a “surprisingly strong” +3.0% to be announced on February 20.

In contrast, the St. Louis Fed Economic News Index is projecting December quarter real GDP growth of 1.1% at an annual rate. Also way too low.

Dollar Death Watch

If US interest rates are going down and rates are going up in the rest of the world (which they are), then the dollar will be worth less.

h/t @dailydirtnap

Below The Paywall This Week

* * our top pick across our hardware coverage, as we believe it’s poised to outperform [near-term] expectations

* * tested and certified for embedded and industrial use cases at the edge, like robotics, smart cities, automation, healthcare, and more

* * ideal for agentic AI, advanced reasoning models, and mixture-of-experts (MoE) models

* * #11 on BofA’s “Stocks The Hedge Funds Love To Short” list with 9.9% of its float sold short. Or, as I call them, “Future Buyers At Higher Prices.”

* * organizations race to generate insights and efficiencies with the technology

* * The stock is incredibly cheap at only 10x 2026 earnings estimates despite growing EPS at a 15% clip in 2025.

* * did a 4-for-1 stock split

* * The median one-year target price is $19

* * participated in the latest SpaceX financing

* * The big biotech stocks ended their bear market in 2025, and I expect the small ones to follow in 2026.

* * the FDA has indicated they will get a rolling submission, so they have accelerated the release of the second Phase 3 trial data

* * got a Buy recommendation at UBS, with a $145 target price

* * beat their 2025 guidance

* * BloombergNEF estimates consumption could increase by more than a third by 2035 in its baseline scenario

* * Gold thrives in an environment of uncertainty, and we have plenty of it in 2026

* * bitcoin’s longer term trend looks to be holding

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Monday, January 12

Short Interest - After the close

Thursday, January 22

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was a meh two weeks for the portfolio as it backpedaled 1.5%. We’re now up 175.7% since inception, with much more to come. Let’s dig in...

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Is Angel Blue The Next Anna Netrebko Or Maria Callas?

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Venezuela used to be much wealthier than Poland, which was suffering under socialism. Then, Poland implemented free-market and capitalist principles and enjoyed an economic boom. Venezuela chose socialism, which brought poverty and misery to its people.

h/t @MichaelAArouet

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Your listening to Ray Dalio Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Right now, it’s jobs, jobs, jobs and inflation, inflation, inflation.

Jobs: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November. That wasn’t much, but it was higher than the 45,000 jobs Wall Street expected, and up from October’s sharp decline of 105,000 jobs. It was probably just a blip up in the clear downtrend in job growth from its 2022 post-Covid high of 900,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021, and up by 1.2 percentage points from its trough 30 months ago. Since 1950, this has never happened without the economy already being in a recession.

A bigger problem I’ve talked about is the quarterly Business Employment Dynamics report revisions. We have to wait until the January 2026 jobs report to get the final benchmark for the year ended March 2025, but last week’s updated BED report helped confirm my prediction as to where nonfarm payrolls are headed once the annual revision is released (hint: down).

h/t Danielle DiMartino Booth

Inflation: The headline November Consumer Price Index was expected to be up 3.1% from last year, but rose only 2.7%. Maybe. The October 1 through November 12 government shutdown had a big impact on data collection. The October inflation number was not calculated at all, and collection efforts for November started late. Anyone who has been to the grocery store or paid a utility bill knows inflation did not suddenly improve a lot between September and November.

On a two-month basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% from September to November, an average rate of 0.1%. In September, prices rose 0.3% on a monthly basis. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI index also rose 0.2% from September to November, slowing the annual rate from 3% in September to 2.6%. If we, or more importantly, the Fed believed it, that was the lowest annual rate since March 2021.

While I don’t think the Fed believes the CPI numbers, I do think they still believe the labor markets are super weak. That’s a big reason they are restarting Quantitative Easing. They gave themselves the flexibility to purchase Treasury note maturities out to three years. It’s a mistake in my view, but it means higher prices in 2026 for precious metals, real estate, other hard assets, and stocks.

We are far from bubble-like extremes, measured as either time, price, or valuation.

h/t Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity

A sentiment gauge compiled by Ned Davis Research, which tracks 20 indicators including volatility, investor positioning, and institutional investor surveys, is sitting below 62.5, the bottom of a range that’s been associated with extreme optimism. Until both institutions and retail are fully on board, stocks can work their way higher.

h/t @NKniazhevich

Market Outlook

The Santa Claus rally is here. The S&P 500 added 4.5% over the last two weeks to a new high today, and is on track for an eight-month winning streak. After similar streaks, three months later the Index was higher 10 out of 11 times, with an average gain of 5%. The S&P is up 17.9% year-to-date.

As you probably know, the second half of December ranks as the fourth-best half-month period of the year. The first half of January ranks fifth.

h/t @ISABELNET_SA

The Nasdaq Composite gained only 0.1% as Wall Street urged institutions to sell AI stocks and buy old economy stuff. They don’t care if they’re right or wrong; they only care that they write a couple of trade tickets. The Naz is up 22.3% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 2.2%, including a 41¢ dividend yesterday. Including the dividend, it is up 39.1% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.6%, but is up 14.3% in 2025.

The fractal dimension went through full consolidation as the Santa Claus rally hit. The year-end corporate contributions to pension plans and personal contributions to 401-Ks can keep the rally going for a week or two, but it is out of energy and on fumes. I expect a pullback early in 2026.

Economy

The delayed first estimate of September quarter GDP was a robust +4.3%, a full percentage point above the +3.3% consensus. It was even above the Atlanta Fed’s +3.5% estimate, which probably means it will be revised down a bit in the next two estimates. Still, it was a strong number. And, although it’s early days, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model‘s first estimate of December quarter GDP is +3.0%.

What is going on? Not to get too deep in the weeds here, but in 2026, I think the surprising story will be about the velocity of money (say what?). The Trump Administration clearly thinks the Fed’s monetary policies have facilitated unsustainable government spending growth, malinvestment, the K-shaped economy, and exacerbated the wealth divide. I don’t think that’s the whole picture because it was the President and Congress that gave us the unsustainable government spending growth in the first place. I do fault the Fed for funding it at very low interest rates.

The Trump Administration plan is to reduce the Fed’s role primarily by offering bank regulatory relief to reduce state control over capital allocation. Less or looser regulation means easier lending standards, which will increase the velocity of money. An increase in the velocity of money should finance a strong capital investment cycle, similar to the 1960s.

Their plan, if executed effectively, will increase capital spending and productivity growth, while reducing inflation and stabilizing the federal debt through higher tax receipts. It worked in the 1960s, and it can work again. The challenge will be avoiding a repeat of the 1970s

The always-interesting Jim Paulsen found the Sweet Spot Index, which highlights the concept of a sweet spot in the economy for stocks. The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) publishes a monthly business conditions leading indicator, composed of 12 forward-looking economic metrics that tend to change direction before the overall economy does.

The red dotted lines separate the index into quintiles. The index reached its bottom quintile lows during the recessions of 1990, 2001, 2009, and 2020. Top quintile readings were generally either when economic growth surged early in new economic expansions just coming out of recessions (1992-93, 2003, 2010-11) or near the end of economic expansions when overheating conditions often emerged (1999-2000, 2018-19).

h/t Jim Paulsen

But it has only been the more moderate middle quintile that has truly been “sweet” for investors.

h/t Jim Paulsen

For all months since 1985, when this leading economic index was in its middle quintile sweet spot, the forward one-month average annualized S&P 500 percent price gain was 18.91%, much better than the average annualized percent price gains of only 7.86% during the rest of the time.

Plus, the risk of suffering monthly S&P declines was also notably less. When the economy was in the sweet spot, the S&P suffered monthly declines only 26% of the time compared to nearly 39% when the economy was not in the sweet spot quintile. Historically, since 1985, a sweet spot economy has delivered almost 2.5x higher returns with 33% less risk of losses.

The Fed is afraid of inflation, Wall Street and consumers are afraid of a recession, yet during the last 36 months, the economy has been in its sweet spot quintile 50% of the time. Despite all the hand-wringing, the stock market has been rising steadily at an almost 20% annualized pace during the last three years. Maybe investors just need to chill.

h/t Jim Paulsen

Below The Paywall This Week

* * plays a song that matches what’s in a user’s view

* * This is no threat to [their] core business.

* * The market is finally waking up to [their] AI-related growth opportunity.

* * I think _____ could replace SAP and Oracle

* * All this for a forward price/earnings ratio of 11.5x? I’ll take it!

* * _____ is significantly undervalued, and here’s why:

* * increased to $88 million over multiple years

* * will hold an investor update webinar

* * gets an exemption from the pharmaceutical tariffs for three years

* * The world is blowing up oil platforms and seizing tankers

* * timespreads would be so deep in contango that you would need a forklift

* * will use the proceeds to pay down debt

* * passed all initial purity and quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) benchmarks

* * one of the biggest beneficiaries as natural gas enters a period of structural deficits

* * prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time ever due to mine outages

* * set a new all-time high and still has room to run

* * Traders are suddenly discovering that the mountain of short positions they have sold is backed by nothing.

* * Drill results continue to confirm widespread gold mineralization and resource growth potential.

* * Bitcoin whales have accumulated 269,822 bitcoins worth $23.3 billion over the last 30 days, the most in 13 years.

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Thursday, January 1

Happy New Year! - markets closed

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was yet another good two weeks for the portfolio as it jumped 3.1%. We’re now up 56.0% in 2025 and 179.9% since inception, with much more to come in 2026. Let’s dig in...

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Dan Ives Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2026

h/t @DivesTech

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How Is The Fed Doing?

h/t @natbrunell

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Your debating if AI is a bubble Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

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Howdy, Bull-Riders:

Surprise! - not. The Fed cut the funds rate another 25 basis points (bps, or ¼ of 1%), bringing it down to 3.50%–3.75% after a relatively calm inflation report and relatively weak employment reports. It was their third cut this year and 1.75% in total since late 2024. Two Fed presidents voted to hold rates steady, while President Trump’s appointment, Stephen Miran, wanted to cut rates by a half percentage point. That was the first time since 2019 that three Fed officials voted against a policy action.

The dot plot forecast is for only one cut in 2026. Danielle DiMartino Booth is advocating for the Fed to ignore President Trump’s wishes and pick their own next chairman at their next meeting on January 28, so early next year could turn into interesting times.

The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures Index for September, delayed five weeks by the government shutdown, rose 2.8% year-over-year, a slight uptick from August’s +2.7%. It was up 0.3% month-over-month, the same as August.

The core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, also rose 2.8% year-over-year, but that was a slight downtick from August’s +2.9%. It was up 0.2% month-over-month, again the same as August. At that rate, the value of the dollar will take 37 years to fall in half, or, as the Fed thinks of it, a win.

People are getting more bullish. AAII investors increased their allocation to stocks to 71.2%, the highest since November 2021. Their cash allocation of 14.8% remains near four-year lows. The AAII bull is getting very bullish while bears throw in the towel, printing close to the lowest levels of the year.

h/t @TheMarketEar

Historically, midterm years like 2026 are the weakest of the Presidential cycle by a wide margin. The S&P 500’s average return in midterm years is only about 5%. The last midterm, 2022, was the worst market year since 2008. Even though everyone knows that, most Wall Street brokers will just extrapolate 2025’s performance and forecast 2026 as a solid year. While that will help drive the Santa Claus rally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see meaningful market weakness in the March quarter.

Market Outlook

September quarter earnings reports were strong as 76% of S&P 500 companies beat the consensus expectation for revenues and 83% beat on earnings. The S&P 500 added 1.3% over the last two weeks to new intraday and closing highs today. The Index is up 17.3% year-to-date.

It isn’t widely recognized that only two of the Magnificent 7 stocks are beating the S&P 500 this year. For all the talk of concentration risk, stocks are at record highs even with Big Tech losing momentum. This is a broad and healthy bull market.

h/t @philrosenn

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6% and set new intraday and closing highs yesterday. It is up 22.2% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) added only 0.1% but still leads the 2025 performance derby, up 36.6% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 4.2% and is now up a respectable 16.2% in 2025.

The fractal dimension is almost out of energy, although, as we have seen with the gold fractals, rallies can continue on fumes. S&P seasonality is our friend for three more weeks.

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of September quarter real GDP growth – still not reported - slipped a bit to +3.5% due to a reduction in the forecast of personal consumption expenditures growth. The Blue Chip economists should be over +3.0% by the time it is reported. That’s a far cry from a recession.

Eric Basmajian of EPB Research pointed out that 20% of the economy drives 10% of the recessions. Yes, we are a consumer economy, with consumption accounting for about 70% of GDP - but that doesn’t vary much. Three sectors - durable goods consumption, residential investment, and business equipment investment – account for most of the cyclical swings. Since 1960, the total of these three has contracted in 21% of all quarters. Total GDP has contracted in just 4.2% of quarters. And the non-cyclical remainder? Just 3.8%.

All the signal is in these three. All the noise and the narrative is everywhere else. Focusing on “the consumer” is focusing on an area of the economy that doesn’t often contract, other than the narrow slice of durable goods, which is the only segment of consumer spending worth devoting extra attention. Look at Eric’s graphic of these three as leading indicators:

h/t EPB Research

The surge in business equipment spending on AI data centers is keeping the US economy out of a recession.

Below The Paywall This Week

* * I just bought my second and third iPhone 16e this year for Christmas stockings.

* * AI and agents are here today, smart glasses are immediately ahead, and the metaverse is a 2028-2030 initiative that is enabled by AI and much of smart glasses technology.

* * We are in a phase of the AI revolution where AI infrastructure, semiconductor supply chains, and data-center buildouts require vast amounts of capital, much of which will wind up in

* * They are targeting the projected $2.9 billion total addressable market by 2030 for

* * They said the bottleneck to AI innovation is no longer algorithms, it is power and compute.

* * 2026 is a show-me execution and investment year, and I expect the stock to “show them” and exit the year over $100 a share

* * IP sales carry very high profit margins, and these can be booked in the December quarter revenue

* * will be able to write up the value of its position

* * Wall Street still doesn’t realize _____ will (1) be approved and (2) be immediately successful.

* * made a big splash at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting

* * demand has held up even better than I expected

* * Their key growth assets are focused on generating excess free cash flow

* * natural gas spiked to its highest price in three years - in the weakest seasonal period of the year.

* * copper rose to an all-time high

* * broke decisively above its prior all-time high

* * announced more positive drill hole assay results

* * has grown their dividend 15% a year since 2000 and is the only precious metals company in the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index

* * I think 2026 will not show the usual four-year cycle drop

Coming Events for Free Subscribers

All times below are ET.

Sunday, December 14

Happy Hanukkah! - Sundown through sundown 12/22

Wednesday, December 24

Market closes early - 1:00pm

Short Interest - After the close

Thursday, December 25

Merry Christmas!

Friday, December 26

Kwanzaa Cheers! - Through January 1

Next Boomberg

Golden Age Portfolio Update

This was yet another good two weeks for the portfolio as it jumped 3.7%. We’re now up 51.3% in 2025 and 171.4% since inception, with much more to come in 2026. Let’s dig in...

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RIP CAMRYN

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Robert Schumann: Symphony nº 3 “Rhenish” - Leonard Bernstein - Wiener Philharmoniker Orchestre

“He composed it between November 2 and December 9 of 1850, in a bit more than a month. This symphony is inspired by the Rhineland, as Schumann had recently moved there with his family. The symphony was written in a happy period of Robert’s life; it is very uplifting and full of optimism. As I listen to this symphony, it makes me both happy and sad. Happy because the music is very uplifting, sad because I realize these were the last happy years for Robert, as just a few years later, overcome by depression, he would try to commit suicide.” - Vitaliy Katsenelson

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Your wondering if we have feudalism Editor,

Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below it would really help me get the word out.

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