Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Ketchup Entertainment (”Coyote vs. Acme”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

Cars (20th Anniversary) (Disney & Pixar)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $3.5 — 7.5 million (3-day)

By Any Means (Paramount)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 8 million (3-day)

Onslaught (A24)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 4.5 million (3-day)

Akira (4K 2026 Re-Release) (Sony & Crunchyroll)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 3.5 million (3-day)

Fall 2: Deadpoint (Lionsgate)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $1 — 3 million (3-day)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Barring any unlikely surprises, Spider-Man: Brand New Day will enjoy a sixth straight and (likely) final weekend atop the box office throne before fall’s slate officially kicks off with Practical Magic 2 on September 11. The MCU blockbuster will continue its approach toward Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.7 million) as the top all-time domestic grosser.

• Similarly, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will remain a top draw for repeat viewers and first-time holdouts as its still-significant presence in IMAX and return to premium locations like 4DX will fuel an 8th weekend haul and possible return to the runner-up spot. The epic will cross the $600 million domestic threshold later this month.

• Coyote vs. Acme’s second weekend performance may be a bit of a wild card after over-performing against expectations in its debut. Reviews and word of mouth are healthy, and as the freshest kid-appropriate material in the market, it could be a draw for parents over the long holiday weekend before the remainder of schools in lingering pockets of the country go back into session after Labor Day Monday. Per studio sources, around 84 percent of K-12 schools and colleges were already back in session by Monday, August 31.

• On the opener front, Disney and Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars should bring out its generation of young fans and families as what could be the top earning “new release” of the holiday, although Paramount’s By Any Means may have something to say about that.

• A24’s Onslaught looks to be in a semi-wide reach, as do Lionsgate’s Fall 2: Deadpoint (opening Wednesday) and Sony/Crunchyroll’s fan event 4K re-issue of Akira. Specialty releases include Fathom’s re-issue of all five Hunger Games films and Trafalgar’s Katy Perry: The Lifetimes Tour - Live from Paris.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Warner Bros. (”Practical Magic 2”); Disney & Marvel Studios (”Avengers: Endgame”); Dariusz Wolski & Sony (”Resident Evil”)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• No analysis this week! Updated projections only, and we’re going free for all readers. Trying to get a breather in and prep next week’s full update.

• We’ll return to a normal 5-week outlook before Labor Day weekend, including early outlooks for Digger and more.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/27/26
(click or tap image to expand)

All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.

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Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Ketchup Entertainment (”Coyote vs. Acme”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic 5th Weekend Forecast Range: $22 — 27 million

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 7th Weekend Forecast Range: $13 — 16 million

Coyote vs. Acme (Ketchup)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 17 million

The Dog Stars (Disney)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $6.5 — 10.5 million

Buddy (Roadside)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $3.5 — 6.5 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• It’s a light late summer weekend, so this week’s write-up will follow suit.

• Coyote vs. Acme is tracking above previous expectations but forecasts are a bit volatile as online buzz has driven awareness in the film. It remains to be seen how walk-up and family-friendly business will be as an IP that’s not as familiar among today’s younger consumers.

• Roadside’s Buddy is absent from the chart below but could be a candidate to slightly overperform. Our final pinpoint weekend forecast is $5.4 million.

• Fathom’s 35th anniversary re-release of Terminator 2: Judgment Day also has a shot at cracking $1 million through the three-day window.

RIP Dolly, Hayden, and Tim. 💔

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Warner Bros. (”Practical Magic 2”); Disney & Marvel Studios (”Avengers: Endgame”); Dariusz Wolski & Sony (”Resident Evil”)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Summer’s final days are upon us, which is typically when we see forecast movement slow a bit. That said, with the overwhelming success of Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey in recent weeks, expectations for a number of upcoming fall releases continue to remain fluid.

• The prime update this week is Disney and Marvel Studios’ upcoming Avengers Endgame: Encore, a re-release of that Marvel Cinematic Universe’s swan song to the Infinity Saga.

Read more

Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Sony (”Insidious: Out of the Further”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic 4th Weekend Forecast Range: $37 — 46 million

Insidious: Out of the Further (Sony)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $23 — 28 million

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 6th Weekend Forecast Range: $18 — 23 million

Mutiny (Lionsgate)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $5 — 8.5 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Late summer box office continues to fire on all cylinders thanks to a group of counter-programmers alongside the historic duo of Spidey and Odysseus.

• Coming off the second highest 3rd weekend in domestic box office history, Spider-Man: Brand New Day will face modest competition from a PG-13 horror sequel this weekend while also seeing some premium screen reduction.

  • Still, momentum is with the Marvel blockbuster as it looks to rival Top Gun: Maverick ($44.7 million) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($42.4 million) on the back end of the top five 4th weekend grosses in history. Outside that cluster stand the likes of The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($40.835 million), Black Panther ($40.82 million), and The Avengers ($36.7 million).

  • On the lifetime charts, BND should surpass the final $814.9 million haul of Spider-Man: No Way Home before the weekend begins.

  • It’s entirely possible BND‘s domestic lifetime total will surpass $858.373 million by the end of this weekend or very early next week. That’s the mark needed to eclipse Avengers: Endgame as the second highest box office tally in domestic history. Force Awakens ($936.66 million) would then be its next and final potential hurdle.

• The aforementioned Insidious: Out of the Further should be walk-up friendly among young adults and teens, although the franchise is certainly well-established enough at this point that it could be somewhat fan-driven following the conclusions of the primary character story arc with 2023’s Insidious: The Red Door.

• Christopher Nolan will continue his march up the all-time charts this weekend as The Odyssey regains some IMAX presence and continues its own momentum after a soft 25.6 percent decline last frame. The added premium shows and prices, coupled with limited competition in the market, could lead to a very light drop this weekend.

  • Nolan’s The Dark Knight remains the current domestic titleholder in his career thus far. That film’s lifetime total of $534.99 million looks to be surpassed by The Odyssey this weekend. It would also put the film in the top 20 highest stateside earners ever. 2019’s The Lion King remake ($543.6 million) would be next in sight.

• Countering this weekend are the latest Jason Statham actioner (Mutiny), the 25th anniversary re-issue of The Fast and the Furious, plus Spa Weekend and The Magic Faraway Tree.

Weekend Forecast
(click image to zoom)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Dariusz Wolski & Sony (”Resident Evil”)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• This week’s marquee addition to the five-week outlook has been drawing reactions of all varieties since its first teaser trailer release: Resident Evil, adapted from the decades-enduring iconic video game franchise.

• Zach Cregger is jumping off from the success of Weapons last year, which drew $270 million globally (including $151.6 million domestic off a $43.5 million debut). The filmmaker has quickly made a name for himself among horror fans following that film and 2022’s Barbarian.

Read more

Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Warner Bros. (”The End of Oak Street”); Paramount (”PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic 3rd Weekend Forecast Range: $60 — 72 million

The End of Oak Street (Warner Bros.)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $20 — 31 million
Studio Tracking: $18 — 23 million

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie (Paramount
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $20 — 28 million

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 5th Weekend Forecast Range: $16.5 — 20.5 million

Six: The Musical (Focus)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 3.5 million

The Brink of War (Angel)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $1.5 — 3.5 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Spider-Man: BND should have no trouble claiming another first place finish atop the domestic box office after posting the third highest sophomore frame in history last weekend with $144.3 million.

  • Climbing the all-time domestic charts, BND looks to eclipse the $700 million mile-marker ahead of the weekend and crack the top five (surpassing Top Gun: Maverick‘s $722 million, as well as Black Panther‘s $700.4 million). The Marvel blockbuster will, however, shed some of its recently gained IMAX showtimes to a new release this weekend...

• …that film being The End of Oak Street. While forecasts have come down from our more bullish ranges earlier in the summer, largely as a product of Spidey and The Odyssey performing so strongly, the film still has a favorable spot in the back end of summer with positive reviews (85 percent fresh from 87 Rotten Tomatoes critics), star power (Anne Hathaway in her renaissance year at the box office, plus the ever loveable Ewan McGregor), and a walk-up friendly premise that could attract casual family moviegoers alongside genre fans looking for a taste of old school Spielbergian/Amblin vibes.

• Countering the live-action spectacles will be PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie as strong pre-release tracking indicates healthy interest from families and fans of the enduring kid-centric franchise. It could even be a dark horse candidate to open in the runner-up spot behind Spidey.

• While Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey may slide down to fourth place this weekend, dollar retention should start stabilizing from the loss of IMAX and premium screens in recent days (though it will hold onto its 70mm IMAX locations and could even regain digital IMAX shows as the release slate slows down in the next few weeks). The film will likely cross the $500 million domestic box office threshold Sunday or Monday, marking only the second film in Nolan’s career to do so (The Dark Knight, $535 million).

• On the specialty front, Six: The Musical could be a sleeper to crack the top five this weekend, while Angel will bring out guild members with The Brink of War, and Falling Forward Films releases Nimrods in semi-wide release.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Warner Bros. (”Practical Magic 2”)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• After a week off, and a massive record over-performance by Spider-Man: Brand New Day, several upcoming releases are revised in our short-range modeling. Notably, The End of Oak Street is pacing slightly off from our earlier forecasts, though as an original film it could yet deliver a late surge in the final week before release given how much Spidey and The Odyssey are overshadowing things right now.

• Looking outward for our first peak into September, Practical Magic 2 is the marquee addition to our short-range outlook this week.

  • Early trailer trends have been encouraging across YouTube and other social networks, particularly among millennial women.

Read more

Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic 2nd Weekend Forecast Range: $142 — 160 million

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 4th Weekend Forecast Range: $33 — 42 million

One Night Only (Universal)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 5.5 million

Super Troopers 3 (Searchlight)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 6.5 million

Ice Cream Man (Iconic Events)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $750K — 1.5 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Never say never: After naively forgetting to add a qualifying “probably” inside the phrasing “the all-time record of $402.1 million … is out of reach” in last week’s forecast for Spider-Man: Brand New Day, it’s a lesson re-learned that anything can happen. That aggregate weekend record *was* usurped as Spidey blew past even the most bullish expectations with a $360.1 million domestic launch, the best in history, as part of an overall $436.6 million moviegoing weekend in North America. Amazing.

• With very little direct competition this week, plus the addition of an unconfirmed number of IMAX screens/showtimes alongside strong word of mouth (98 percent Popcornmeter on Rotten Tomatoes; 4.1 from Letterboxd users), BND has a considerable shot at besting Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ $149.2 million all-time record second weekend performance. Avengers: Endgame‘s $147.4 million is a close second, while BND is essentially locked to surpass the currently #3-ranked Avengers: Infinity War ($114.8 million).

• Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey should continue its stellar run after easing just 43.3 percent against the Marvel behemoth last weekend.

  • Some IMAX showtimes/screens will be lost to Spidey this weekend, but the exact footprint remains unconfirmed. Nolan’s epic is expected to still retain a significant portion of those as many locations had already been on sale (if not nearly sold out) weeks in advance. On a similar note, some of last week’s burn-off came from non-IMAX premium screens being handed over to the Peter Parker blockbuster.

  • On the milestone front, The Odyssey will surpass The Dark Knight Rises‘ $448.2 million final domestic total during the coming weekend and become Nolan’s second-highest grossing film ever in North America. The Dark Knight‘s $535 million remains his benchmark… for now.

  • Globally, we can expect The Odyssey to reach the $1 billion threshold around the same time later this week/weekend.

• Likely to bow outside the top five are Super Troopers 3 ($3.5 million pinpoint) and Ice Cream Man ($1.3 million pinpoint).

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $250 — 290 million
Studio Tracking: $195 million

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 3rd Weekend Forecast Range: $45 — 52 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The first live-action Peter Parker movie in nearly five years continues to soar in final pre-release tracking. Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s excellent reviews (91 percent Certified Fresh from 158 critics on Rotten Tomatoes) only add to the weekend’s potential.

• When we start talking numbers this large, all variables of context have to be kept in mind. For starters, the Spidey and broader Marvel franchises are massively pre-sale focused, which warrants at least some caution for ballooning expectations as the weekend approaches.

  • That said, a 12pm Thursday preview start (following Wednesday’s Prime Early Access shows) effectively makes this a four-day opening that will be condensed into a “Friday through Sunday” opening. (On average, most Thursday previews begin anywhere from 2pm to 7pm excluding early access cases.)

  • Capacity issues aren’t necessarily a concern, but Brand New Day lacks IMAX screens to give ticket prices (and the box office take) the extra boost seen by most Marvel films.

  • Walk-up potential remains high with the character’s generational and universal appeal across all demographics. Tom Holland and Zendaya are also major factors here with high interest among under-35 audiences compared even to recent MCU films.

  • Deadpool & Wolverine‘s standing July opening record of $211.4 million is likely to be surpassed by BND this weekend.

  • While nothing is locked, especially with projections this monumental, an all-time top five domestic opening seems achievable. Currently, those are:

    • Avengers: Endgame ($357.1 million)

    • Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1 million)

    • Avengers: Infinity War ($257.7 million)

    • Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.97 million)

    • Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220 million)

• Meanwhile, The Odyssey won’t be slowing down much, though it could see some temporary impact with such massive competition.

  • The global blockbuster’s sophomore frame continued a climb up the all-time best charts for Christopher Nolan and R-rated films after easing just 27.1 percent from its debut, comparable to the hold of Top Gun: Maverick in its second weekend. IMAX retention and demand will remain very strong this weekend and beyond.

  • Our forecast may be slightly on the aggressive side but it banks on the “moviegoing begets moviegoing” philosophy as word of mouth remains a huge part of the pop culture moment (not to mention, again, the “Tom Holland and Zendaya” component which may or may not inspire some double-headers).

• Domestic box office has a significant chance to exceed $300 million all in this weekend. That’s only happened four times in history, the most recent being “Barbenheimer” weekend ($311.3 million) in July 2023.

  • The all-time record of $402.1 million (the weekend Avengers: Endgame released in April 2019) is out of reach, but the weekend Infinity War debuted in April 2018 (driving almost $315 million) and the December 2015 frame ($313.3 million) which saw Star Wars: The Force Awakens debut are just slightly ahead of the aforementioned 2023 Nolan-Barbie face-off.

  • This weekend has more than a puncher’s chance of topping all three for the #2 highest grossing box office weekend ever.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Mike Gioulakis & Warner Bros. / Bad Robot (”The End of Oak Street”); Sony (”Insidious: Out of the Further”)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Short on time for a full analysis this week!

• The basics: Spider-Man: Brand New Day remains at a high pre-release tracking clip. There are signals of potential to reach or exceed previous high-end forecast ranges, but we caution that tracking becomes incredibly volatile with super limited sample sizes when discussing potentially historic opening weekends north of $200 million.

• New additions to the 5-week outlook include Coyote vs. Acme and The Dog Stars.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/23/26
(click or tap image to expand)

All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.

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Photo Credits: Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic 2nd Weekend Forecast Range: $69 — 81 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• With the best domestic Monday gross ($18.68 million) and second best Tuesday (estimated $21.4 million) of 2026, Christopher Nolan’s epic adaptation remains on a wave of incredible momentum at the box office. The film has amassed over $163 million from North America alone through five days of play and is well on its way to becoming just the second R-rated film in history to hit $400 million-plus domestically through its entire run (which won’t be ending anytime soon).

• IMAX 70mm, traditional IMAX, and premium screens of all varieties remain in high demand as primetime shows in those formats are filling up and approaching capacity levels via pre-sales extending into the film’s fourth weekend next month.

• With no major competition this weekend, those and standard format screens will benefit from exceptional audience buzz and repeat viewings with what could be one of Nolan’s best second weekend performances (The Dark Knight‘s $75.2 million and The Dark Knight Rises‘ $62.1 million owning the top benchmarks). Notably, the preference for premium screens and increasing scarcity of optimal seats continues to make forecasts challenging as this is certainly not going to be a front-loaded box office run.

• Counter-programming is Bleecker Street’s Hadestown: The Musical, which will bring in die-hard fans of the Broadway show.

• With the World Cup (sadly) over and the aforementioned lack of major studio openers, other holdovers should stand up very well with light drops this weekend before Spider-Man: Brand New Day arrives next week.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

Refer a friend

Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”); Mike Gioulakis & Warner Bros. / Bad Robot (”The End of Oak Street”); Sony (”Insidious: Out of the Further”)

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• With $17.6 million from Thursday previews, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is (so far) performing near the mid-to-high end range of our expectations. Check out that full analysis here for current goings-on. Based on early preview results, Friday morning weekend projections remain generally in line with those previous forecasts.

• With Spider-Man: Brand New Day now two weeks out and serving as the final mega-event release of summer, tracking continues to indicate immense fan interest in Tom Holland’s fourth solo outing as Peter Parker. Pre-sales remain robust as we begin to approach the stage that will help better determine how front-loaded it may or may not be relative to recent Marvel blockbusters.

Read more

Photo Credits: Universal & Syncopy (”The Odyssey”)

The Odyssey (Universal)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $98 — 128 million
Studio Tracking: $80 — 100 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Since an admittedly lengthy and unabashedly inner-fan-inspired novel when christening our five-week track, the philosophy has generally remained the same: there is no perfect model for The Odyssey. This is often true of many films, but for reasons I won’t belabor (again) in our final forecast, this has been an exceptionally challenging film to assess — and it will remain so until we start seeing post-Thursday preview numbers throughout the weekend.

• As for preview numbers, we’re currently projecting somewhere in the realm of $15 million-plus, but let’s be clear that is not a pass-fail line in the sand.

  • For context, Oppenheimer opened with $10.5 million from Thursday previews three Julys ago, while Avatar: Fire and Ash and Dune: Part Two earned $12 million each (the latter including IMAX early access).

• From there, the weekend could play out a number of ways. Word of mouth will dictate a lot of extrapolations, but the baseline assumption is that Oppenheimer remains the closest analog — with the exception being that there is no “Barbenheimer” effect in play this time. As dissected in the aforementioned five-week write-up, that introduces unique variables for The Odyssey.

• Universal’s marketing machine has delivered over the past month with a consistent rotation of promotional materials, interviews, and spots during broadcast events such as the World Cup.

  • Notably, that tournament is coming to a close and should pose no threat of competition on Thursday or Friday. Saturday’s third place playoff could be a minor factor, while Sunday’s final is likely the more noteworthy one to watch for in terms of any effects on overall moviegoing attendance (not just The Odyssey‘s).

  • As briefly mentioned two weeks ago, culture war narratives spawning in certain online communities have added to the challenges of assessing this film’s prospects, but we continue to lean in the direction of the localized backlash having little effect among broader audiences. If anything, the sensationalism has raised awareness for the film outside Nolan’s own audience and casual moviegoers.

• Following last week’s ecstatic reactions from critics on social media, today’s full review embargo has lifted to an excellent 98 percent “Certified Fresh” rating from 112 Rotten Tomatoes critics as of this writing. Scores naturally see a slight decline as more reviews are officially submitted, but the pace indicates it will stabilize in the end with a very high score.

• Pre-sales are immense, with the caveat that they have been heavily weighted by IMAX and other premium formats. Standard screens are beginning to sell more tickets for this weekend as seat scarcity for the larger immersive experiences takes hold.

  • That said, this raises a critical factor in forecasts: how many general audiences will be swayed by reviews and check out the film in a non-premium setting during the first weekend (aka, the FOMO element) versus how many will wait for optimal screen availability and/or crowds to ease?

  • Also of note in weekend playability and walk-up potential will be Nolan’s pull among millennials and Gen Z, both of with which are significant components to his audience.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

Refer a friend

Photo Credits: Disney (”Moana”); Universal (”The Odyssey”); Sony & Marvel Studios (”Spider-Man: Brand New Day”)

This week’s update will be quick and free to all subscribers as we enter the 4th of July frame with only a few major wide releases on the short-range calendar.

Of note, next week’s 5-week and weekend forecasts may be delayed or shortened as I’ll be taking some quick time off from computer screens between the holiday and the busy month ahead.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Although post-July 4th trends could pick up to some extent, Moana is pacing behind its expected pathing at this point before release. We remain somewhat optimistic that it could have a solid runway through summer as one of the last family- and female-driven tentpoles opening before the fall, but opening weekend metrics are looking more challenging coming on the heels of Toy Story 5‘s blockbuster success and the kid-friendly business of Minions & Monsters.

• Pre-sales for The Odyssey across our sample markets remain dominated by IMAX and premium screens ahead of an expected uptick in general pre-sale interest amid final marketing stages after the July 4th weekend.

  • Multiple outlets are reporting social media reactions from critics in select cities will be allowed starting Monday, July 6, followed by the full review embargo lift on July 15. This follows a similar pattern employed by Universal for Oppenheimer three summers ago.

  • A new trailer released to mostly positive reactions and organic social scores earlier this week. For full context, waves of negative sentiment have affected user ratings on targeted social media and trailer pages. This appears mostly tied to political/influencer-based rating bombing campaigns, but it is nonetheless something to be aware of in this day and age, unfortunately.

• Similarly, Spider-Man: Brand New Day claims no major updates this week. Buzz continues chugging along at a strong pace with the next potential revision in forecasts (if needed) not exepcted until mid-July at the earliest.

• Joining our five-week outlook this week are three early August titles: Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man will look bring out his fan base and genre fans, One Night Only will counter for young date night audiences, and Super Troopers 3 will aim to bring back franchise fans.

  • All three are likely to live in the shadow of Spidey’s second frame, which depending upon audience reception, should still comfortably lead the box office on the weekend of August 7.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/2/26
(click or tap image to expand)

All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.

Refer a friend

Photo Credits: Universal (”Minions & Monsters”); Angel Studios (”Young Washington”); Disney (”Toy Story 5”)

Minions & Monsters (Universal & Illumination)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $68 — 87 million (5-Day)
Studio Tracking: $95 million (5-day)

Young Washington (Angel Studios)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $23 million+

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• This will be an especially unique weekend for a lot of reasons. Chief among them is July 4 on Saturday, a calendar alignment that hasn’t occurred with a normally functioning box office in 11 years.

  • 2026’s Independence Day moviegoing is even more volatile to forecast with countless America 250 celebrations taking place around the country, many of which could take place across multiple days.

  • The holiday typically wreaks havoc on box office projections during most years as family schedules are dependent upon observed work holidays and weekend structuring.

  • In addition to the special nature of this July 4th, World Cup matches and a record-breaking heat dome settling over significant parts of the country could also play a role in theatrical foot traffic, for better and worse.

• As for the movies themselves, Minions & Monsters will court family fans just two weeks after Toy Story 5 stormed into theaters with the biggest opening of 2026 so far. The Universal and Illumination franchise has seen remarkably consistent returns in its 16-year history, though with a third film opening in the last four years, demand may not be comparable to previous event-level installments within the series.

  • Despite pre-release signals indicating observable diminished returns on the domestic side, an 89 percent fresh score from Rotten Tomatoes critics (as of Wednesday morning) and the potential for strong walk-up business over the long weekend could still help it top current expectations.

• Angel Studios made its biggest mark on the box office three years ago this weekend with Sound of Freedom, followed by last year’s The King of Kings and David finding similar commercial success on opening weekend. This year, Young Washington is hoping to join that short list of top-tier Angel releases and potentially exceed $20 million domestically on opening weekend in the process.

  • The company has made a significant push with its guild members to help make the film #1 at the box office on Saturday, July 4. Combined with encouraging pre-sale metrics in measured samples and reported by multiple sources, there’s an increasing (if cautious) optimism it could happen.

  • The counterpoint of that goal is that family films typically see business decline sharply on July 4th, giving Washington an even stronger leg up. Critics are also mostly positive on the film with a 71 percent fresh score.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Sony & Marvel Studios (“Spider-Man: Brand New Day”)

Summer 2026’s final S-tier blockbuster tentpole joins our short range tracking report this week. To no surprise, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is shaping up to be a monster box office performer.

Below our 4-week forecast chart (available to free subscribers) is an in-depth analysis followed by preliminary ranges and estimated pinpoints for the July 17 opener.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony & Marvel Studios / July 31) (Trailer)

  • The Spider-Man brand remains among the sturdiest of big screen franchises as a generational favorite mythos whose relevance has been proven time and time again across eight live-action films and two hit animated releases over the last 24 years.

  • Coming off the phenomenal $804.8 million domestic / $1.91 billion global run of No Way Home in late 2021 and early 2022, anticipation for Tom Holland’s fourth outing is high among fans of both Spidey and the broader Marvel Cinematic Universe.

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Photo Credits: Disney & Pixar (”Toy Story 5”); Warner Bros. & DC Studios (”Supergirl”)

Supergirl (Warner Bros.)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $34 — 43 million
Studio Tracking: $47 — 50 million

Jackass: Best and Last (Paramount)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $8.5 — 13.5 million
Studio Tracking: $10 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Fresh off the biggest debut of 2026 so far, and the third biggest animated opening in history after 2019’s The Lion King ($191.8 million) and 2018’s Incredibles 2 ($182.7 million), Toy Story 5 will continue its reign as four-quad family appeal remains healthy on the back of a 95 percent audience score and 92 percent critics’ score (via Rotten Tomatoes).

  • Naturally, coming off a double-holiday weekend, the initial drops may be sharper than normal, especially as it loses IMAX screens to Supergirl. We still expect the run to level out fairly quickly and march through summer toward a potential $500 million-plus domestic finish despite facing competition from Minions & Monsters and Moana in the weeks ahead.

• Speaking of the second film in the new DC Studios era, Supergirl pacing is unfortunately continuing to move in the opposite direction once hoped for in long range projections.

  • Pre-sale trends in our sampling indicate previews are trending toward approximately $7 million from Wednesday fan events and Thursday combined.

  • Reviews are hovering around the 60 percent fresh mark from more than 70 Rotten Tomatoes critics at the time of writing. Audience reception always remains a challenging variable to forecast and could yet have a say in driving performance above final forecasts, however, superhero films are no longer treated like novelties by casual audiences in the way they were a decade ago. Walk-up business and post-opening interest could prove modest in the current moviegoing climate as the film is relying primarily on older millennial and Gen X male comic book fans in pre-release demographic observations.

  • Despite initial goodwill from last year’s Superman expected to fuel interest in this title, opening weekend timing may prove a significant factor after a very busy market over Juneteenth and Father’s Day, as well as coming before Fourth of July vacations and festivities later next week.

• Similarly, Jackass: Best and Last is relying heavily on its own older male audience. We remain cautious in projections as the film has been advertised as something of a “greatest hits” theatrical release rather than a film with entirely new content like previous films in the highly successful, low-budget comedy franchise.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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Photo Credits: Warner Bros. (”Supergirl”); Disney (”Moana”); Universal (”The Odyssey”)

With no major studio wide releases set for July 24, the weekend between The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, this week’s report is brief as we begin the long Juneteenth/Father’s Day weekend with a four-week update available to all free subscribers.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Supergirl‘s social media review embargo lifted this week, with positive-to-mixed reactions. As always, we caution that full review embargoes can often be more meaningful (this one lifts next Wednesday), but that’s not a universal rule.

  • That said, pre-sale trends across our national samples currently point toward a front-loaded weekend with Thursday previews likely to land ahead of The Marvels ($6.6 million). This puts a potential weekend debut bordering around $40 million on the table, although our pinpoint is remaining “bullish” within the set spectrum of forecasts to account for the possibility of the current holiday weekend deflating short-range growth. We’ll monitor next week for final forecasts.

• Similarly, trends for Jackass: Best and Last won’t be especially useful until closer to opening day as is common with comedies. Still, current forecasts align with our pros and cons outlined in previous reports.

• Following two of the biggest on-sale dates of the year, The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day are now settling into a month of full marketing machine power. The former of the two remains on course with our previous ranges, while Spidey has remarkably high potential that we’ll cover in an upcoming report.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 6/18/26

All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.

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Photo Credits: Disney & Pixar (”Toy Story 5”)

Toy Story 5 (Disney & Pixar)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $158 — 180 million
Studio Tracking: $140 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• A double-holiday weekend is looking to be the perfect alignment for Disney and Pixar’s anticipated fifth entry in the Toy Story franchise. The high water mark for the franchise came seven years ago when Toy Story 4 bowed to $120 million domestically, on its way to a $434 million lifetime stateside haul.

• Juneteenth should fuel very strong business this Friday as many parents have the day off work, while Father’s Day on Sunday will also be a busy day for theater workers managing hordes of families. Pixar is no stranger to the latter having opened several major summer blockbusters on and around the mid-June holiday.

• Reviews are once again strong for the franchise as Toy Story 5 has earned a 94 percent fresh score from 124 Rotten Tomatoes critics at the time of this writing.

• Pre-sales trends have impressed as premium formats, IMAX included, are a high priority for some moviegoers. The film is well ahead of its 2019 predecessor at the same point in our exhibitor samples, while outstripping both this year’s Super Mario Galaxy Movie and last year’s Lilo & Stitch.

• In tandem with the scarcity aspect of a busy weekend, plus walk-up business and a dollar boost from 3D sales, odds of topping 2024’s Inside Out 2 ($154.2 million) as the third highest animated opening in history continue to improve (led by 2019’s The Lion King at $191.8 million and Incredibles 2 at $182.7 million).

  • That said, there is always a slight caution in mind that big Disney and other relatively similar films tend to lose some last-minute pacing due to a very pre-sale heavy audience (notably, moms planning ahead).

Note: Going forward, we’ll be focusing on the top five films each week (with pinpoint forecasts) in the year-over-year comparisons and chart below, plus key new releases that may occasionally fall outside the projected top five.

Weekend Forecast
(click or tap chart to expand)

This weekend’s top 5 films are tracking to earn a approximately $220 million+. That would be 113 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($103.6 million, led by How to Train Your Dragon’s $36.6 million sophomore frame) and 30 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($169.2 million, led by Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million start).

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.

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