My win simulations and favorite outright bets are up for the TOUR Championship.

A few notes for the week:

• Scottie Scheffler is +350 or shorter to win the TOUR Championship around the industry. I can’t bet that.

• His good buddy, Sam Burns, has been striping the irons. Can he convert on it this week?

• A few other names are peaking with their approach play, and that’s leading me to them in a small field.

Full simulations, best bets, course history, and key stats are here: TOUR Championship: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats.

Thanks for reading. I really do appreciate it.

-Brandon

1. Scottie Scheffler: 16.2%

2. Rory McIlroy: 8.4%

3. Sam Burns: 6.3%

4. Patrick Cantlay: 5.0%

5. Wyndham Clark: 5.0%

Last week, Wyndham Clark proved again that upside matters with outright winners.

This week, value is a bit hard to come by — but there’s some.

TOUR Championship Course Info and Key Stats

Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.

East Lake Golf Club Course Info

• Par: 70

• Yardage: 7,440

  Average Fairway Width: 30.7 yards (average)

• Green Size: 6,238 square feet (average)

• Greens: Bermuda

TOUR Championship Key Stats

In Order of Importance

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green

The 72-hole champs here (not net scoring but just gross) the last five years have been Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland/Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm/Kevin Na. That’s a list of pretty good ball-strikers who aren’t super errant off the tee.

TOUR Championship Past Results

Here’s a look at every golfer’s total strokes gained data over the last five TOUR Championships. (Note: I’m visualizing strokes gained by year rather than finishing positions.)

TOUR Championship Win Probability Simulation Model

I’ve simulated the TOUR Championship 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.

Here are the results.

The Shortlist: Names I’m On

Sam Burns and Tom Kim

On Monday, I noted that the early run of the sims liked Sam Burns and Tom Kim. That’s still the case as of Wednesday — sort of. Frankly, there just isn’t really much +EV I’m seeing this week around the industry based on the sims, and that’s okay. I’ll never force it.

We’ll start with Burns, though. I laid out on Monday that his irons have been great. Even last week when he struggled overall, his irons were there. That leads me (and the model) to believe in a bounceback for Burns. Ultimately, he’s rating out at around +1480 in the model, which mirrors where he is some places (+1475 on DraftKings, +1400 at Caesars) but not all (+1800 at bet365, BetMGM, and FanDuel). He’s still a target there.

Tom Kim is also dialed in with the irons and is an accurate driver, too. The full sim run has him around +4750. On DraftKings, he’s shortened from +5000 to +4800. The best number I see on him now is +5000 at Caesars, but he’s +4500 to +4800 elsewhere.

Viktor Hovland

The best form at East Lake (just cumulatively over the last five years) belongs to Hovland, whose odds are generally shortening but may not be short enough yet.

Hovland’s tee-to-green game is largely consistent, but his true upside is tied to how his putter performs. He’s gained on the greens in four straight years at East Lake.

The overall profile for Hovland basically shows that he can spike in any particular category in any given week. If he can do it all at once, he can win (like he did at the Travelers).

In a 30-golfer field, he may not need to have all of them firing at peak capacity, either.

Best Number I See: +3000 at FanDuel

Justin Rose

Rose ranked 12th in approach at the FedEx St. Jude Championship two weeks ago and fifth last week at the BMW Championship.

In total, over everyone’s last 20 rounds, he ranks 10th in approach — but last in strokes gained: around the green. He’s had some eruption weeks with bad around-the-green play and was more neutral last week at the BMW.

Rose has a lengthy history at East Lake, as expected, and he virtually always gains strokes: tee to green at the course.

A super high-variance player at this point in his career, Rose has the upside to beat these guys at their best — so long as he brings his A-game.

Best Number I See: +5000 at bet365

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

It all comes down to this: the TOUR Championship at East Lake.

⛳ Quick Course Notes

East Lake generally rewards accuracy with driver and irons, but around-the-green play matters, too.

Tommy Fleetwood finally got it done* last year at East Lake, winning at -18 in a non-handicapped start, a change to the format that ran from 2019 through 2024.

The 72-hole winners here by gross scoring the last five years have been Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland/Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm/Kevin Na. Ball-strikers with accuracy, for the most part.

📊 Simulation and Odds Notes

Of course, given the small field, the win odds are much higher than we’re used to in the sims, and the betting odds are much shorter.

Scottie Scheffler didn’t follow up his huge win with a hot start last week, so people may overreact, but the odds are still super short, as we’d expect. The model is here to stay level-headed for me. Honestly, at +300 to +350, it’s not that bad for Scottie, but I won’t be betting him.

Rory McIlroy looked sharp, though, and you’ll find him in the +800 to +950 range. Not bad for a 30-man field.

But the early sims like two names with some nice recent form and good fits for East Lake.

🏆 My Early Leans and Best Bets

• Sam Burns

  • I get it if you’re tired of Burns because of the lack of wins, but we did see Tommy Fleetwood end last season on a winless heater — only to win the TOUR Championship.

  • Last week at the BMW Championship, Burns finished T28 with negative strokes gained: off the tee, around the green, and putting.

  • Time to move past him? Probably not.

  • He gained on approach, which marks eight straight events with positive SG: APP.

  • That’s what has made Burns’ recent surge appealing. It’s not just a hot putter. It’s better iron play, sustained over a long sample.

  • Not only that, but he’s putting on bermudagrass this week, and he’s putted extremely well on the greens at East Lake in his career.

  • The short-term form for Burns is way better than the odds suggest.

  • Putting it all together, it would make sense for Burns to stay hot at East Lake.

    • Best Number I See: +1900 at bet365

• Tom Kim

  • The profiles of the 72-hole winners at East Lake in recent years align pretty well with Tom Kim’s recent skillset: great ball-striking with good accuracy.

  • Kim, like Burns, finished T28 last week at the BMW Championship with his irons and putter stuck in neutral.

  • Digging back a bit further, though, we’ve seen pretty elite iron play and accuracy from Kim, really, since February.

  • There is inconsistency with the putter, but when it’s on, the upside is tangible.

  • In his only stop at East Lake, Kim finished fifth in strokes gained: putting.

  • There aren’t a lot of longshot options in a field this size, but at a 50/1 or even 60/1 number on Kim? The model — and the case for him — check out.

    • Best Number I See: +6000 at FanDuel

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

My win simulations and favorite outright bets are up for the BMW Championship.

A few notes for the week:

• Scottie isn’t showing value, but that doesn’t mean there’s a ton left over.

• The two names I liked early have shortened since Monday.

• If starting from scratch, there’s a favorite who makes sense, at least.

• And I’m also in on another beneficiary of a short-term-only run of the model.

Full simulations, best bets, course history, and key stats are here: BMW Championship: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats.

Thanks for reading. I really do appreciate it.

-Brandon

1. Scottie Scheffler: 17.8%

2. Sam Burns: 5.6%

3. Rory McIlroy: 4.6%

4. Cameron Young: 4.4%

5. Ludvig Åberg: 4.2%

Scottie Scheffler finally converted on his elite form and dominated a great field at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, winning by eight shots.

This week, he’s back against a similar (but even smaller) field. How does he rate out in the model?

(I know you can already see above, but just go with it.)

BMW Championship Course Info and Key Stats

Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.

Bellerive Country Club Course Info

• Par: 70

• Yardage: 7,448

  Average Fairway Width: 34.6 yards (average/wide)

• Green Size: ~8,200 square feet (large)

• Greens: Bent

BMW Championship Key Stats

In Order of Importance

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Emphasis on Driving Distance

• Strokes Gained: Putting

There have been some revisions to Bellerive since the 2018 PGA Championship (won by Brooks Koepka), but the key stats are likely going to be hitting it far and striking it well in general. An overall lean on distance shows up in the model’s picks (but not all).

BMW Championship Win Probability Simulation Model

I’ve simulated the BMW Championship 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.

Here are the results.

The Shortlist: Names I’m On

Cameron Young and Jake Knapp

The early names I clicked this week were Cameron Young and Jake Knapp.

Cameron Young has since shortened from +2200 to +2000 at FanDuel and is as low as +1800 at other books. The eye test didn’t really lie when I saw him longer than names such as Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele. Seems like the public agreed with that. The full run of the sims like Young at around +2150, not as much value as I was hoping to see, so I wouldn’t chase it beyond that.

As for Knapp, he was +4500 on Monday morning and is down to +3500 to +4000. The sims have him at +4250 or so, meaning that I wouldn’t chase that either. There was some slight value to be had on these guys but no more (at least as of Tuesday afternoon; maybe they lengthen again given the field size).

A Lean on Sam Burns

This comes with an asterisk because I’m on the fence, given that I already bet Cameron Young in the low 20s.

Burns has what we’d want: elite irons and elite putting at the moment.

He’s also a high-variance player, which is what you need to win, especially if Scottie is in form.

Burns’ best price is +2000 (FanDuel) that I see. The model likes Burns closer to +1700, and he’s gettable between +1600 and +2000.

The issue is that, with Young already, Burns doesn’t really mesh with the rest of the card. If I were looking at everything the first time today, Burns would be someone I’d add.

He’s still a maybe for me because it’s a small, loaded field and the value is technically there. If the ascent for Burns is still ascending, then a breakthrough win makes sense for him. I think this one’s about bankroll management and philosophy.

I’m more in than out, though, because the rest of the board looks pretty bleak as far as pure outright value goes.

Best Number I See: +2000 at FanDuel

Si Woo Kim

Knapp might be the only real long shot I bet this week, as Kim’s best number is +3000.

But Si Woo’s iron play is immaculate right now, and the putter has spiked at times, leading to five top-10 finishes in his last eight starts. Not all of those even had big-time putting numbers. That’s just how good the tee-to-green game has been.

When we account for his short-term form, the data does the talking.

Over everyone’s last 20 rounds, via datagolf, Kim is gaining +1.91 adjusted strokes per round, seventh in this field. He’s fifth in ball-striking in that span, and we know the around-the-green play is great for him over the long haul.

Running the model with short-term data only, Kim (other than Burns) is the biggest beneficiary.

With a small field and scarce value, this is where I’m stopping for outrights this week, personally.

Best Number I See: +3000 at FanDuel

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sam Burns and Viktor Hovland, last week’s early bets, were in the mix for a bit, but Scottie Scheffler was just too much last week, and neither were up to the task.

That ends a streak of three straight winners for the models (including LPGA, which had another promising week at the Portland Classic), but we’re onto the next.

⛳ Quick Course Notes

Bellerive Country Club is back on the menu for the first time since the 2018 PGA Championship, won by Brooks Koepka.

It’ll be long (a 7,448-yard par 70) and likely reward ball-striking.

📊 Simulation and Odds Notes

Scottie’s odds are super steep after his dominant win last week (+250 to +310), which I get, but that makes him overvalued in the model.

That leads to a few value spots early and could get us some more throughout the week.

🏆 My Early Leans and Best Bets

• Cameron Young

  • Is Cameron Young’s peak in the past? Maybe.

  • Is he cooling off? I don’t think so, unless you care only about one week of data.

  • After a T39 at the FedEx St. Jude, he’s now sixth (or so) in odds depending on where you look.

    • A lot of places have him behind Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, and Ludvig Aberg.

  • I don’t get it, and the model doesn’t see it that way, either.

  • Young’s ball-striking had been dominant, until last week when he lost strokes off the tee and with his approach play.

    • Prior, he had gained in both categories in 14 straight starts.

  • This feels like an overreaction, and both the short-term and the long-term data are good enough to want to go back.

    • Best Number I See: +2200 at FanDuel

• Jake Knapp

  • Jake Knapp was third in strokes gained: tee to green last week at the FedEx St. Jude, and he now has shown enough since his return that we can believe in him a bit more.

  • Knapp’s irons have spiked in three of his past five starts, and he has the distance needed to make a move this week.

  • Knapp’s putting splits suggest that better putting is ahead, too, so at a number like this in a 50-man field, I’m in.

    • Best Number I See: +4500 at bet365

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

My win simulations and favorite outright bets are up for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

A few notes for the week:

• I got in early on Sam Burns and Viktor Hovland due to elite iron play recently. I still like it.

• Speaking of ball-striking, two more golfers are dialed in with their irons.

  • I just need one of them to start making putts.

Full simulations, best bets, course history, and key stats are here: FedEx St. Jude Championship: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats.

Thanks for reading. I really do appreciate it.

-Brandon

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

1. Scottie Scheffler: 14.6%

2. Rory McIlroy: 5.3%

3. Sam Burns: 4.9%

4. Cameron Young: 4.1%

5. Tommy Fleetwood: 3.8%

Thank you, Michael Brennan. That’s two of the past three weeks for the PGA model as well as the LPGA model (a work in progress) finding Shiho Kuwaki at the AIG Women’s Open two weeks ago.

C’mon, math. Keep it going.

The FedExCup Playoffs start this week with a 69-golfer, no-cut event. How does that alter the sims and win distributions?

FedEx St. Jude Championship Course Info and Key Stats

Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.

TPC Southwind Country Club Course Info

• Par: 70

• Yardage: 7,300

  Average Fairway Width: 29.3 yards (tight)

• Green Size: 4,300 square feet (tiny)

• Greens: Bermuda

Wyndham Championship Key Stats

In Order of Importance

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy

• Birdie or Better Rate

Recent winners have been Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover, Will Zalatoris, and Abraham Ancer, all (at the time of their win) great ball-strikers but not necessarily lights-out putters.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Past Results

Here’s a look at every golfer’s total strokes gained data over the last five FedEx St. Judes. (Note: I’m visualizing strokes gained by year rather than finishing positions.)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Win Probability Simulation Model

I’ve simulated the FedEx St. Jude Championship 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.

Here are the results.

The Shortlist: Names I’m On

Sam Burns and Viktor Hovland

The early names I clicked this week were Sam Burns and Viktor Hovland.

Burns’ irons have been dialed in, and we know he can get hot with the putter. Burns’ putting with legitimate ball-striking is such a high-upside profile. The model is putting him around +1950, and you can still find him at +2200 (DraftKings).

As for Hovland, he wound up around +3600 in the full sims and is +3700 at DraftKings. Hovland’s irons are great, and when he putts well, he has spike weeks.

As for other value…there isn’t a ton.

Tom Kim

Kim’s rating out around +5200 in the model, and the best number I see on him is +5100, but his short-term form has been substantially better than his long-term form. To clarify, I look at short-term form at intervals when I have found data to stabilize, but long-term form also matters.

So, there’s a chance that Kim is still slightly undervalued in the model due to the longer-term data.

Kim also has been pretty solid at this course in three prior starts.

Kim at +5100 on DraftKings is a big outlier from where he is elsewhere, so this one is book-specific.

Best Number I See: +5100 at DraftKings

Alex Fitzpatrick

I’ll do the dance at least one more time on a phenomenal ball-striker who isn’t putting well (again, a pretty nice archetype for this course).

Fitzpatrick keeps gaining strokes from his approach play and his driver. The short game is bogging down the finishes, and so he’s a long shot.

Over everyone’s last 20 rounds, Fitzpatrick is fourth in strokes gained: ball-striking behind Scheffler, Burns, and Cameron Young.

I’ll sprinkle the outright but prioritize a top-10.

Best Number I See: +9400 at DraftKings

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

The FedExCup Playoffs are here, and the models have been on point.

The last three weeks have led us to Jackson Koivun (+3200) and Michael Brennan (+7400) on the PGA Tour, and the LPGA model (a work in progress) found Shiho Kuwaki (+8500) at the AIG Women’s Open.

⛳ Quick Course Notes

TPC Southwind, which has tiny greens, has historically favored ball-striking with an emphasis on driving accuracy rather than pure distance.

Recent winners have been good ball-strikers and not necessarily elite putters (Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover, Will Zalatoris, and Abraham Ancer).

That all tracks.

📊 Simulation and Odds Notes

The big dogs are here, including each of the top-12 golfers in the OWGR. Scottie Scheffler is shorter than +500 where I see odds early on Monday morning. The early sims don’t see value there, and that leaves things open for the rest of the board.

🏆 My Early Leans and Best Bets

• Sam Burns

  • Burns at a course with small greens? Yeah, I’m good with it because his iron play has been elite over his last six events, three of which have been majors.

  • Burns played The Open after his wife, Caroline, gave birth to their second child earlier than expected. He finished solo third.

  • So, there’s been a layoff, but if we let the data do the talking, then Burns is undervalued at +2200.

  • He’s also played TPC Southwind well in the past with good ball-striking and putting data.

    • Best Number I See: +2200 at FanDuel

• Viktor Hovland

  • Hovland MC’d The Open (despite good iron play) after a win (Travelers) and a T13 (Scottish Open), and he hasn’t lost strokes from approach play in eight straight starts.

  • The putter has been dialed in two of those eight: his Travelers win and his solo third at the RBC Canadian Open.

    • Hovland has gained on the greens here in four straight years, finishing T20, T13, T2, and T32.

  • He fits the mold of the winners list and looks undervalued based on the early sims.

    • Best Number I See: +3900 at DraftKings

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

My win simulations and favorite outright bets are up for the Wyndham Championship.

A few notes for the week:

• It’s looking like a Tier 2 kind of week for me and the model.

• There are two bad putters I’m betting (one has won here before).

• A few darts make sense to me this week, including one with a similar game to Cameron Young.

Full simulations, best bets, course history, and key stats are here: Wyndham Championship: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats.

Thanks for reading. I really do appreciate it.

-Brandon

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

1. Cameron Young: 9.0%

2. Jackson Koivun: 4.3%

3. Ben Griffin: 4.1%

4. Alex Fitzpatrick: 3.2%

5. Aaron Rai: 3.1%

The PGA Tour’s regular season comes to an end this week, and it’s anybody’s event to win.

Wyndham Championship Course Info and Key Stats

Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.

Sedgefield Country Club Course Info

• Par: 70

• Yardage: 7,131

• Average Fairway Width: 29.5 yards (tight)

• Green Size: 6,000 square feet (average)

• Greens: Bermuda

Wyndham Championship Key Stats

In Order of Importance

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy

• Birdie or Better Rate

Aaron Rai, Lucas Glover, Tom Kim, Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, JT Poston, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, and Si Woo Kim. Those were the winners here until Cameron Young won last year. Young was accurate off the tee during a dominant win. The rest are accurate archetypes.

Wyndham Championship Past Results

Here’s a look at every golfer’s total strokes gained data over the last five Wyndham Championships. (Note: I’m visualizing strokes gained by year rather than finishing positions.)

Wyndham Championship Win Probability Simulation Model

I’ve simulated the Wyndham Championship 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.

Here are the results.

The Shortlist: Names I’m On

Ben Griffin and Michael Kim

I got in early on Ben Griffin and Michael Kim (Wyndham Championship: Early Win Simulation Notes, Predictions, and Best Bets) and still feel good about it.

Griffin is up to 15th in the field in strokes gained: approach over everyone’s last 20 rounds, and he’s played Sedgefield well in the past, owning three top-11 finishes in four starts. The sims like him in the +2350 range. The best number I see on him now is +2800 at bet365 and BetMGM.

Kim’s a similar case: the iron play ranks 29th over everyone’s last 20 rounds, but he is one of the most volatile golfers in the field based on his round-by-round variance. You need that for a winner. Sims have him around +5700. You can find him as high as +8000 (FanDuel) and as short as +6000 (Caesars).

Alex Fitzpatrick

I don’t love this because the days when I just keep betting bad putters are really long over (or so I thought), and Fitzpatrick might be a bad putter. Or at least a below-average putter based on his distance splits.

Still, he’s the top-ranked ball-striker in the field over everyone’s last 20 rounds and is second over everyone’s last 50 rounds. The underlying putting data isn’t completely awful, so maybe things will click for a weekend.

He has a very similar (yet better current) profile to Aaron Rai, who has won and finished top-five the last two years.

Best Number I See: +4000 at Caesars, BetMGM, FanDuel

Aaron Rai

Speaking of Rai, the form is similar to Fitzpatrick’s, and he has the course history for sure (win in 2024, T5 in 2025).

He MC’d the Scottish Open and The Open but is now back in a familiar spot. Rai is rating out well enough (+3150) for me to get another name in this tier. If he played better recently, the odds would likely be shorter, and that’s a nice angle to attack always. Long-term form matters.

I’d rather bet Fitzpatrick at a longer number and with a better profile if I could pick just one, but I don’t mind hammering Tier 2 most weeks. Sometimes, that’s where the value is.

Best Number I See: +3300 at bet365, BetMGM

Bud Cauley

Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open and then made the cut at the U.S. Open (T56) and The Open (T18) after that. He also made the cut at the PGA (T26) and THE PLAYERS (T32) this season. Not bad!

He can gain strokes in all four areas of the game and has a pretty lengthy history at Sedgefield.

His recent form is trending much better than the long-term form.

Cauley is around +5600 in the model. Also the type of name I’d look for a top-10. Model has him around +520 to do so.

Best Number I See: +6500 at bet365

Michael Brennan

One more book-related dart: Michael Brennan on DraftKings at 74/1.

Brennan’s odds are +5000 to +5500 elsewhere I look.

Brennan is striping the irons, ranking 10th over everyone’s last 20 rounds. He’s seventh in ball-striking overall in that span.

There could be some Cameron Young (last year’s winner here) arbitrage here, as they are big hitters with great ball-striking and streaky short games.

I’ll be looking at the top-20 market, too. Model has him around +295 to top-20.

Best Number I See: +7400 at DraftKings

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

The schedule is allowing an earlier post on Sunday night.

I wasn’t there for Michael Thorbjornsen at the Rocket Classic. I don’t post LPGA sims, but Shiho Kuwaki came through on the LPGA side for a nice boost, which I’ll take as a win for the math and the process.

Onto Sedgefield.

⛳ Quick Course Notes

Sedgefield has been kind to accuracy off the tee and good ball-striking overall with a de-emphasis on putting to a degree.

Cameron Young won last year in a runaway by six shots; before his win, it was Aaron Rai, Lucas Glover, Tom Kim, Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, JT Poston, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, and Si Woo Kim.

Young was super long off the tee but also really accurate during his dominant win.

📊 Simulation and Odds Notes

The field’s pretty weak overall. It’s far from terrible, but there’s a dearth of top-15 options: it’s just Young.

This leaves plenty of win equity to be spread out around the rest of the field. Early sims see a few names to like.

🏆 My Early Leans and Best Bets

• Ben Griffin

  • Griffin MC’d last week at the Rocket Classic, missing just barely. He didn’t drive it well but played well otherwise.

  • Griffin’s ball-striking has been great in recent events, and the upside has been there: T21 at the John Deere, T10 at the Travelers, and T17 at the U.S. Open before a T59 at The Open and the MC at the Rocket Classic.

  • Griffin has also finished 4th, MC, T7, and T11 at Sedgefield in the last four years.

  • Early sims like him around +2300.

    • Best Number I See: +2700 at DraftKings

• Michael Kim

  • I’ll go back to Michael Kim.

  • He was T8 at the Rocket Classic, leaning on his short game.

  • That was after a T10 at the 3M Open, which stemmed from his approach play and putting.

  • Kim has played Sedgefield eight times with pretty bad results overall but was T5 in 2023. I’ll let the current form win out at such a long number.

    • Best Number I See: +7000 at DraftKings

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

My win simulations and favorite outright bets are up for the Rocket Classic.

A few notes for the week:

• After two early clicks on Monday, I left space for favorites this week, and I found one or two I like.

• I want to get in early on a player who is rounding back into form.

• A few hot iron players are in the 80/1 range or longer.

Full simulations, best bets, course history, and key stats are here: Rocket Classic: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats.

Thanks for reading. I really do appreciate it.

-Brandon

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

1. Cameron Young (8.4%)

2. Wyndham Clark (4.8%)

3. Chris Gotterup (4.7%)

4. Jake Knapp (3.9%)

5. Jackson Koivun (3.7%)

The math was mathing last week, and Jackson Koivun got the win. You love to see it.

How does the model view this week’s (surprisingly good) Rocket Classic?

Rocket Classic Course Info and Key Stats

Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.

Detroit Golf Club Course Info

• Par: 70

• Yardage: 7,328

• Average Fairway Width: 35.7 yards (average)

• Green Size: 5,150 square feet (small)

• Greens: Bentgrass / Poa

Rocket Classic Key Stats

In Order of Importance

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green

• Birdie or Better Rate

The course adjustment in the model is always pretty small, and it’ll be small this week, too.

It’s a golf course where big hitters have generally won (Potgeiter, Cam Davis twice, Finau, and Bryson) but also Rickie and Nate Lashley, too.

There have been course changes, and it’s now a par 70 rather than a par 72. The course should play tougher than in the past.

Rocket Classic Past Results

Here’s a look at every golfer’s total strokes gained data over the last five Rocket Classics. (Note: I’m visualizing strokes gained by year rather than finishing positions.)

Rocket Classic Win Probability Simulation Model

I’ve simulated the Rocket Classic 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.

Here are the results.

The Shortlist: Names I’m On

Akshay Bhatia and Michael Kim

My two early bets (Rocket Classic: Early Win Simulation Notes, Predictions, and Best Bets) this week were Bhatia and Kim, leaving myself room for favorites later in the week.

Akshay Bhatia is a highly volatile player who has had great ball-striking in three starts here. He has lengthened since yesterday (from 40/1 to 43/1 at DraftKings, but he has shortened in other places, to as low as 30/1. The model likes him around +3600.

Michael Kim also lengthened slightly (88/1 to 90/1 on DraftKings). Like with Bhatia, he’s shortened in some other places and is as short as 80/1 from what I see. The model has him around +9000, not as much of a value as I was expecting to find.

Wyndham Clark

According to datagolf’s true strokes gained, which adjust for field strength, Clark is the second-best golfer in the field over everyone’s last 50 rounds. He’s at +1.76. He trails Cameron Young (+2.19) in that span.

Over everyone’s last 20 rounds, Clark is at +2.63. Next up is Ryan Gerard (+1.91).

Si Woo Kim (+1.89), Chris Gotterup (+1.83), and Russell Henley (+1.73) are the only names within a full shot per round of Clark in that span.

My model does account for short-term form but also weights in long-term form, as well.

My point here is that my short-term model (which has Clark at a field-best +2.05 strokes per round) would view him as the favorite. Even with the long-term data in the mix, he’s rating out at around +2000.

Best Number I See: +2400 at bet365

Jake Knapp

The model used to love Jake Knapp, and for a while, it still did even as he worked his way back from injury.

Then he tailed off a bit.

But I’d rather get in early than too late on a player of Knapp’s caliber as he rounds back into form.

He gained 1.74 strokes per round from approach at the 3M last week, per datagolf, to finish T13. That ranked him third in approach among cut-makers.

He’s also finished T31 and T4 here the last two years.

Model would put him around +2500.

Best Number I See: +3200 at DraftKings

Jackson Suber

I’ll go back to Suber at a longshot price of +8000 on DraftKings.

I don’t care that he missed the cut last week. He putted terribly but was good on approach, which he’s been for a while now.

He also finished T6 here last year, which I don’t put a ton of stock into, but he’s a better golfer now than then and is being bet down. I still think there’s value in one spot.

Model has him in the +7300 range.

I’ll also go with a top-20 here; same for Michael Kim.

Best Number I See: +8000 at DraftKings

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

I won’t lie, after the Shane Lowry collapse at the Cognizant and the Ben Kohles heartbreak at the John Deere, it’s nice to be back on track with Jackson Koivun’s breakout win at the 3M Open.

Who does the model like this week?

⛳ Quick Course Notes

In seven years with Detroit Golf Club on the rotation, we’ve seen winning scores worse than -22 just twice (-18 both times), and three of the seven years went into a playoff.

Overall, Detroit Golf Club is really basic as far as course fit goes.

With that said, we’ve seen some big hitters win: Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Davis (twice), Tony Finau, and Aldrich Potgeiter.

Even with that, though, distance isn’t a pre-requisite, and we’ve also seen Nate Lashley and Rickie Fowler win.

📊 Simulation and Odds Notes

This week, there’s no Scottie Scheffler. There’s no Rory McIlroy.

But we do have four top-10 golfers in the OWGR teeing it up: Cameron Young (3rd), Russell Henley (5th), Chris Gotterup (7th), and Wyndham Clark (9th). JJ Spaun (14th), Xander Schauffele (15th), Si Woo Kim (18th), and Ben Griffin (19th) are also in the field.

It’s pretty top-heavy, all things considered, though not all of those names are in peak form.

🏆 My Early Leans and Best Bets

• Akshay Bhatia

  • I like a lot of the names at the top of the board, but I’m willing to wait and see how their odds shift. I think value will open on some of them throughout the week.

  • Bhatia is clocking in as an early value in the simpler, Monday morning sims.

  • I will say that the short-term form isn’t phenomenal, but that’s driving his price down, and the model accounts for long-term form for a reason.

  • Bhatia has played Detroit three times and has finished MC, T2, and T26 the last three years while striping the ball off the tee and with his irons.

  • Bhatia’s individual variance is enticing, too. A lot of the more established names at the top (such as Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Ben Griffin) are frustratingly consistent, which makes it hard to win.

    • I still might bet one of those guys (most likely Henley), but we’ll see.

  • With a field this strong, we’ll need a ceiling outcome, and Bhatia, when he’s on, has a top-tier A-game.

    • Best Number I See: +4000 at DraftKings & FanDuel

• Michael Kim

  • This isn’t a reaction to Kim’s 59 last week. In fact, I’ve been eying up Kim for a bit and haven’t totally gotten there.

  • Now, though, Kim has gained on approach in three straight events.

  • His T10 at the 3M Open snapped a three-event missed cut streak (all three had poor putting).

  • His long-term and short-term form (and variance) rate out pretty similar to Michael Thorbjornsen’s, and Thorbjornsen’s odds are around 35/1.

  • I’ll also be there on a finishing position for Kim.

    • Best Number I See: +8800 at DraftKings

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

My win simulations and favorite outright bets (and finishing position bets!) are up for the 3M Open.

A few notes for the week:

• I’m not betting Scottie Scheffler, but I don’t blame you if you do.

• This is a week without a ton of obvious value in the model, so I’m okay to deviate when short-term form is much better than long-term form.

• That leads me to a sprinkle of youngsters and veterans.

Full simulations, best bets, course history, and key stats are here: 3M Open: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats.

Thanks for reading. I really do appreciate it.

-Brandon

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

1. Scottie Scheffler (24.3%)

2. Kurt Kitayama (3.0%)

3. Jackson Koivun (2.9%)

4. Tom Kim (2.7%)

5. Maverick McNealy (2.6%)

Scottie Scheffler is set to tee it up at TPC Twin Cities, but the world #1 is the only golfer inside the top 25 of the OWGR.

After Scottie, things are wide open in the sims.

3M Championship Course Info and Key Stats

Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.

TPC Twin Cities Course Info

• Par: 71

• Yardage: 7,431

• Average Fairway Width: 35.2 yards (a little wide)

• Green Size: 6,500 square feet (a little larger than average)

• Greens: Bentgrass

3M Open Championship Key Stats

In Order of Importance

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green

• Birdie or Better Rate

While we’ve had some big-hitting champions (Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, Jhonattan Vegas, and Kurt Kitayama), accuracy as a whole tends to matter plenty at TPC Twin Cities.

Winning scores have been between -15 and -24 (-23, -17, -24, -17, and -15) the last five years.

3M Open Championship Past Results

Here’s a look at every golfer’s total strokes gained data over the last five 3M Opens. (Note: I’m visualizing strokes gained by year rather than finishing positions.)

3M Open Win Probability Simulation Model

I’ve simulated the 3M Open 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.

Here are the results.

The Shortlist: Names I’m On

Jackson Koivun, Tom Kim, and Jackson Suber

My early bets yesterday were on Jackson Koivun and Jackson Suber. I had a lean on Tom Kim.

Koivun has lengthened a bit and is +3600 on DraftKings, so I missed out by getting in early. Seems like people aren’t fully bought into the short-term PGA Tour form. Koivun is coming back around +3300 in the model, so I still like him at the new numbers.

As for Suber, he is rating out at +5600 in the sims and has shortened a bit from where I found him Monday (+5500). The odds for him range between +4400 and +5000.

Tom Kim is in the 35/1 range in the sims but is 33/1 or shorter everywhere I see. I do think there’s a chance the model is underweighting his potential because of how it balances long-term form, though. The short-term form alone would have him shorter than this, so I’m adding Kim. Best number I see for Kim is +3300 at BetMGM.

For more thoughts, you can check out 3M Open: Early Win Simulation Notes, Predictions, and Best Bets.

Brian Harman

Without much on the card in the way of favorites (because there’s only one and because I’m not betting him), I’m going to put sprinkles on long shots this week. But this means partial units and responsibility.

Brian Harman fits the bill at around +6200 in the sims. He is as short as +4500 (Caesars).

Harman MC’d The Open but was T36 at the Scottish with good irons and putting. Harman’s game is always bogged down by poor course fits. This week? He makes sense.

He’s finished T7 and T41 here in two starts while putting really well on these greens.

Best Number I See: +7000 at FanDuel

Ben James

I’m reaching a bit on Ben James, which I’m okay doing on long shots more than favorites and in a wide-open field like this one (if you assume Scheffler doesn’t win).

James is around +6900 in the sims and is as low as +4000 (bet365) in the market from what I see. But his long-term form is weaker than the short-term form, and James was T4 at the Corales Puntacana Championship last week, opposite The Open.

He’s an accurate driver with spike potential with the irons (which we actually saw during his T23 at the U.S. Open).

While he MC’d at TPC Twin Cities in 2024, he hit his irons well and just didn’t have the rest of his game. He’s a much better golfer now than in 2024 as an amateur.

He’s also a volatile golfer, which implies some upside.

Best Number I See: +5500 at Caesars/FanDuel | Top-10: +650 at FanDuel

Johnny Keefer

Keefer is gaining with his irons (seven straight positive events by SG: approach, per datagolf) and has putted well sporadically.

When he’s putted well, he tends to play well (T9 at THE CJ CUP and T3 at the Scottish Open). He was T59 at The Open last week.

Keefer’s just another name I’m willing to reach on a little in the model because of his short-term form, which is substantially better than his long-term form.

Best Number I See: +6000 at Caesars | Top-20: +250 at FanDuel

Lucas Glover

Glover is the fourth-best approach player in the field over everyone’s last 20 rounds, per datagolf. He trails Tom Kim (on the card), Scottie Scheffler (the massive favorite), and Johnny Keefer (on the card).

Glover’s putter is really bad over the long term but has been okay in each of the last two starts. If he can keep it in neutral, he has some upside.

Sprinkle on an outright but primarily focused on a top 20.

Best Number I See: +11500 at DraftKings | Top-20: +380 at FanDuel

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Welp. There go the men’s majors for the year. Now we wait for Augusta Women’s TGL.

What does an early simulation run look like for this week’s event, the 3M Open?

⛳ Quick Course Notes

TPC Twin Cities typically rewards accuracy, approach, and around-the-green play. The three A’s. In reality, you probably have to go low. Winning scores here have been -23, -17, -24, -17, and -15 in the last five years.

📊 Simulation and Odds Notes

Scottie Scheffler is a huge favorite (+260 to +310 early on Monday), and he’s soaking up a ton of the win equity in the early sims. Even if I were to bet him, I’d wait. I don’t think the odds will get much shorter than this.

🏆 My Early Leans and Best Bets

• Jackson Koivun

  • The first click for me so far is Jackson Koivun.

  • He has gone T23 (U.S. Open), missed cut (John Deere) and then T10 (ISCO Championship) in his last three starts after tearing up college golf.

  • I don’t love that the iron play has been negative the last two starts, but we’ve seen him gain on approach in PGA Tour starts last fall and at the U.S. Open this year.

  • The all-around game is interesting, and the long-term form is showing value in the model.

    • Best Number I See: +3200 at bet365

• Tom Kim

  • This one’s more of a lean because I’m not there yet, but Kim’s odds can be found at +3500 (FanDuel), longer than Koivun’s.

  • Kim hit his irons well at The Open but didn’t have the rest of his game.

  • Should he be longer than Koivun? I’ll monitor the situation.

    • Best Number I See: +3500 at FanDuel

• Jackson Suber

  • Suber finished T28 at The Open after a final-round 74 but was top-30 in approach and around the green for the tournament in an unfamiliar setup.

  • He didn’t drive it well but typically gains off the tee.

  • He has a pretty solid all-around game, and we’ve seen his upside already: he has three top-six finishes in his last six PGA Tour starts.

  • Suber also played here last year, missing the cut after losing a lot of strokes on the green (but gaining on approach).

    • Best Number I See: +5500 at bet365

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

My win simulations and favorite outright bets (and finishing position bets!) are up for The Open Championship.

A few notes for the week:

• I’m in on four names in the mid-tier, though one of them is seeing his odds shorten drastically.

• I think one name in particular could outplay his simulation based on his hyper-recent form.

• A two-time major winner — who is the best golfer in the field over everyone’s last 20 rounds — is +3900.

Full simulations, best bets, course history, and key stats are here: The Open Championship: Best Bets, Win Simulations, Course Info, Key Stats.

Thanks for reading. I really do appreciate it.

-Brandon

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

1. Scottie Scheffler (8.8%)

2. Rory McIlroy (5.8%)

3. Matt Fitzpatrick (4.9%)

4. Jon Rahm (3.6%)

5. Tommy Fleetwood (3.5%)

The final men’s major of the year is here, and it’s a pretty open board.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are in philosopher mode, and nobody seems to be in flawless form (though we have some guys trending).

What does the model think?

The Open Championship Course Info and Key Stats

Most stats via GCSAA, PGA Tour, and datagolf.

Royal Birkdale Golf Club Course Info

• Par: 70

• Yardage: 7,223

• Green Size: 5,200 square feet (smaller than average)

• Greens: Fescue and bentgrass

The Open Championship Key Stats

In Order of Importance

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green

• The Open Championship History

• Strokes Gained: Putting

I list out key stats each week, and they’re factored into the model a bit, but I’m not the biggest proponent of targeting stats archetypes. I think golf data isn’t accessible enough or adjusted enough to account for all we need to account for while still having a robust sample.

I say that because Birkdale has undergone a massive change since 2017, so past key stats may not be indicative of future success.

Just last week, Tom Kim won at a typically distance-heavy course, and some shorter hitters were inside the top-10, too. It happens.

So, all of this is to say that my course adjustment tweaks are pretty minimal this week.

The Open Championship Past Results

Here’s a look at every golfer’s total strokes gained data over the last five Open Championships. (Note: I’m visualizing strokes gained by year rather than finishing positions.)

The Open Championship Win Probability Simulation Model

I’ve simulated The Open Championship 50,000 times using recency-weighted, field-adjusted strokes gained data.

Here are the results.

The Shortlist: Names I’m On

Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton

The two names I was in on early this week were Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton.

Everybody seems to be on Fitzpatrick, too. His odds are trending down, and the best number I see at this point is +1750 at DraftKings. (I bet him at +2100.)

The simulation model likes Fitz at around +1960, so I can’t really recommend him at this point unless he drifts. Fitzpatrick’s game has been centered on elite iron play. Over everyone’s last 20 rounds, Fitz is second in approach play, per datagolf.

I also liked Tyrrell Hatton on Monday morning. Hatton’s short game and Open history are really giving him added value in the model, where he rates out around +3800. He’s +3800 on DraftKings.

For more on why I like these guys, you can check out my early article: The Open Championship: Early Win Simulation Notes, Predictions, and Best Bets.

Viktor Hovland

Given that I don’t see value at the top of the board, I think I’m just going to grab exposure to some names in the mid-range this week.

That points me to Viktor Hovland, who the model might very well be underrating based on his current form. Hovland’s rating out in the +4000 range, and that’s not positive EV based on the betting odds.

With that said, the short-term form is better than the long-term form for Hovland, and he checks the boxes as far as having played well last week and having good Open Championship form.

I’m willing to overlook this one and buy in on Hovland.

Best Number I See: +3400 at DraftKings

Wyndham Clark

Yeah, I’m going back to Wyndham Clark. Yeah, it’d mean he has three majors — and two this season. But nobody is in dominant form at the top of the board, and Clark has a case to be a top-five golfer on the planet right now (or better).

Over everyone’s last 20 rounds, he’s averaging +3.03 true strokes per round, via datagolf — territory typically reserved for Scottie Scheffler (who is second at +2.58).

He’s a great around-the-green player at his peak, and he’ll need to be this week in order to win.

Clark is a strong Open player and finished well last week at the Scottish Open, typically a sign of the eventual winner.

The model puts Clark in the 35/1 range.

Best Number I See: +3900 at DraftKings

Other Bets

• Si Woo Kim Top-10

  • Best Number I See: +460 at bet365

• JJ Spaun Top-10

  • Best Number I See: +675 at bet365

• Alex Fitzpatrick Top-20

  • Best Number I See: +290 at bet365

• Kristoffer Reitan Top-20

  • Best Number I See: +430 at FanDuel

• Eugenio Chacarra Top-20

  • Best Number I See: +480 at bet365

Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. Any betting models, projections, analysis, predictions, and wagers discussed reflect personal opinions and are not financial, investment, or gambling advice. No model or analysis can guarantee future results or profitability.

Sports betting involves risk, and you should never wager more than you can afford to lose. By using the information in this newsletter, you acknowledge that any betting decisions you make are solely your responsibility.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.