Two early bets last week should have been two winners. Less said about the ride on Cunnamulla Fella last week the better…. I said it was a tricky meeting going in and if you backed the model overlays last week you would have ended up behind, albeit a small loss.

This week presents different challenges. We are back to Eagle Farm and there are a number of races which do not appeal to me all that much and others which I’m very keen on.

I have had two early bets. R1 Spirit of Barty $4.8 and R9 Cunnamulla Fella $6.5 pre-deductions.

R7 is a very interesting race I thought. Grinzinger Champ who has been smashing everything in its way finds a very tricky race. I’ve had it longer than the market for all 3 of the wins and will be similar again. 1400 on the big track away from Doomben with good tempo has to be a risk for mine. It is flying and the sectional data and visuals are very impressive but this is a test.

I’m keen on Cunnamulla Fella again and think the market is wrong with Livalittle too short in that race. I also like Braveheart in the last.

Full model prices further down for those interested.

Good luck.

Subscribe now

Interesting meeting last week. None of my early bets landed but the model had 7/9 winners on the card as overlays. I say 7 but one you were unlikely to back so let’s go with 6….

Looks a tricky meeting today. I have had two early bets. R6 Letsfacethemusic $3.5 and Cunnamulla Fella R10 $5.5 and $4.8 pre-deductions. They are the two I like the most on the card and nothing has changed since I took those prices.

Some of these other races look like raffles. That’s okay as the model will do its job and sort through some of that and I will play the prices late.

Full model prices further down for those interested.

Good luck.

Subscribe now

Found a few last week but would have liked 1 or 2 more.

I like the meeting today. While there are a few races that are a bit gross, 2/3rds of the card are good betting races.

I grabbed a number of early prices on Wednesday and Thursday. This included: R2 Courthezon $5; R3 Fernao $4.2; R5 Just Flying $4.2 and $4.6; R8 – Acappella Sun $15 and Gospel Girl $12; R9 Hatchet $13. All those prices pre-deductions.

I feel like I am in a good position early, but it is quite an unusual situation for me as I’m on a lot of the favourites today.

I will likely just play prices late outside those with a few minor exceptions. I think it is likely that I will be on Braveheart in R7 and I will be covering up on one or both of Hell and Perielle in R9.

As I usually say, I don’t really do best bets, but I think Just Flying is the one today. Hatchet is also definitely the value runner of the day at double figures and can win for sure. Easy each-way bet if that is your go.

R8 is a very interesting race. I really like the favourite as a type, but I thought it took a long time to wind up last start and in my review of the race my notes said that some strong 12-1400m types would be able to get over the top of it late next start. Proper test for it today away from restricted grade, albeit the scratchings likely help it.

Full model prices further down for those interested.

Good luck.

Subscribe now

We kept the good times rolling last weekend with a combination of a few early bets lobbing and some good overlays later in the card. Noble Conqueror 50s in the last was the cherry on top. Nothing Thompson is on in Brisbane should go around 50s ever.

Interesting meeting today. I am quite keen on about half the races and the other half look like raffles. Will have to think about those races some more and assess the pattern and prices late.

In terms of early bets, I had quite a few this week. R1 Amplify $5.5, R4 Star of Jamaica $4 and Boonie Boom $4.6, R7 Livalittle $5, R8 Cosmo Centaurus $5.5 and R9 Anemacore $4.6. Those are all obviously pre-deduction prices.

Race 4 has had some of the most insane fluctuations I can recall on a race for a while. Not sure if there was a system error with API services. But Boonie Boom opened 1.95 drifted to 5 on some bookies then has firmed back to $2.5. I took the $4 opening price Star of Jamaica, then took $4.6 Boonie and then have had more this morning on Star of Jamaica at $4…Very weird. If Boonie wins, I’ve had a tiny loss and get a crack at Star of Jamaica improving with some insurance from Boonie so happy to play the race that way.

Outside of those I’m already on, I will just play the overlays late. I don’t really do best bets but I think Anemacore is the one for the day. Just needs the right run in transit.

Full model prices further down for those interested.

Good luck.

Subscribe now

Some good results last weekend. The firm on some of those winners, especially Sir Artie, was notable. I will have more to say on favourites and horses firming late at some stage when I get around to writing up the article.

I’ve had a few questions about the model prices. The prices are primarily designed for using BSP or prices on the fair late. However, if there is a good overlay early, like Sir Artie last week, I will take that Saturday morning and then re-assess close to the race.

In general, I bet very early (within an hour of opening prices) and last 5 minutes on Betfair. The only exception is really Saturday morning when I finalise prices and I want to firm up a position.

The meeting this weekend has fallen away a little bit with some important scratchings. It doesn’t look the easiest meeting and there is nothing I could declare

I still thought there was some good value across the card and, as per usual, I think the favourites are too short.

As I say week on week, that’s my default position and that’s me wearing my bookies hat.

In terms of early bets, a few that I backed are now scratched, but I have had something on Lovecats ($16) in R6 and Cunnamulla Fella ($6) in R7. That was based off the tapes, and the model agrees with me on those two.

Outside of that, a few that I am interested in but haven’t backed yet: Bluepinot R1, Cormac T R2, Yet He Moves and Galano R3, Manolo Bling in R9. All of those have prior convictions and are not the most reliable propositions so I need a price and will wail till the death to decide.

Full model prices further down for those interested.

Good luck.

Subscribe now

Decent weekend last weekend with a few good winners. I don’t mind this meeting at Eagle Farm today and have had several early bets which have put me in a good position.

I took the opening price on Sir Artie at $6.5, an early price on Montpellier at $6 and $4.2 Automne Tree. I will likely cover 1 or 2 others in those races but expect all three to run well. Sir Artie would be my best of the day and anything north of 3.5 is a great bet.

Some of the other races look tricky to me. Will be monitoring price movements and playing late on the fair.

One I may take a price on early is Fioprospero in race 5. Different form is enough for me at that price.

Full model prices further down for those interested.

Good luck.

Was a successful meeting last week with some good winners and all three suggested lays went under too.

The meeting today is less exciting and very much the epitome of middle of winter.

Nonetheless, I think there are some decent bets on the card and some favourites to attack as per usual.

I took the opening price on John Rambo of $7.5 and after deductions that is around $3.85 at present. If CJ can give it a decent steer it looks incredibly hard to beat.

In the staying race - which is not my go at all - I thought Benzino and Enterprise Private look good prices at $9 and $13 respectively. I like Dragonne Rouge in race 5 and in race 7, I think Surprise Honey is worth attacking and Taltarni Fields, Break Free and a few others at longer odds may be worth having something on.

Full model prices further down for those interested.

Good luck.

And this is the next edition of said stream of consciousness. So strap in.

For those that have subscribed since I started this, you may recall I looked at the data on how efficient the market is at pricing horses through a preparation at metro level in Brisbane.

If you haven’t read that, the headline finding was that the Brisbane metro market systematically overprices horses early in their preparations and under-prices them deep in preparations — especially midweek. You can read that here.

This piece follows directly on from that and is based on a hunch I’ve had for a while which was that horses who came off trials wins are being massively over-bet at Brisbane metro level.

I increasingly started to clock it over the last year as both my manual pricing and the prices my model was producing were significantly longer than what the BSP were on these runners.

What I sketch out below is what I’ve done to investigate that hunch. I don’t get into the why or what is driving this in the below. Mainly as I don’t think I can clearly explain it and this post would be even longer than it currently is, which is verging on novel territory already.

While the key result may not surprise people, I do think when the results are expressed in average prices, it likely will. It certainly surprised me.

The data

As with the previous article, I have focused on the BRC tracks of Eagle Farm and Doomben. This is where most of the metro racing occurs in South-East QLD and it also ensures the analysis is manageable while still giving me a large enough pool of trials and race-day performances to analyse.

To analyse the performance of horses that trialled and then raced at one of the BRC tracks, I collected all South-East QLD barrier trial results from 1 July 2024 to 11 July 2026 — 10,270 trial entries across six metro and provincial trial venues: Doomben, Gold Coast, Deagon, Toowoomba, Eagle Farm and Sunshine Coast.

I’ve used the data from the last trial before horses go to the races to determine trial winners v non-winners. I matched 3,289 first and second-up BRC metro runs. 608 of which were first-up runs from trial winners. I’ve then used this dataset to segment the data in different ways to drill further down into what is going on with how the market responds - at least in part - to trial wins.

To visualise and illustrate the point,* I’ve used actual v expected wins and translated that into what an average price would look like for each group of runners to highlight just how big some of these inefficiencies are.

I use * - like above - to note where some more explanation may be required and I have added these notes at the end of the piece.

All the data in this article comes from Formking.

The research questions

To keep this manageable I’ve structured what I’ve done and my thinking around four questions:

Q1: Are trial winners systematically priced too short first-up at BRC metro level?

Q2: Does the distance of the last trial matter — are horses from shorter trials systematically priced more or less efficiently?

Q3: Are trial winners that ran fast times relative to others on the same day systematically priced more or less efficiently?

Q4: Are trial winners shorter in the market systematically priced more or less efficiently?

I move through each of these below to better understand what is going on with trial data at Brisbane metro level.

Q1: Are trial winners priced too short first-up?

Yes, emphatically. Here are the headline numbers:

Trial winners first-up: 76 actual wins against 95 expected across 608 runs.*

Of course, each race should be assessed on its individual merits, but if you have consistently been backing trial winners first-up at BRC tracks over the last two years, the data suggests you have likely taken odds that are shorter than you should have.

The pattern largely holds across Metro Midweek (MMW) and Metro Saturday (MSAT) meetings, as shown in the figure below.

The second-up story is also worth noting. By the second run after a trial win, the market has largely corrected — trial winners second-up are priced only about 7% shorter than their actual win rate justifies.

While we can’t say definitively that it is the trial driving these price discrepancies, the correlation is clear and obvious and this is a major market inefficiency.

Q2: Does trial distance matter?

Yes, and meaningfully so. I’ve split trial winners into three distance bands — sub 900m, 901–1050m, and 1050m+ — partly because there is ongoing debate among punters about whether short 600–800m trials have any real predictive value for race performance.

What I found was that sub-900m trial winners first-up are priced roughly 30% shorter than their actual win rate justifies. As I show below, a $5.63 chance from a short trial is genuinely worth closer to $8.

The 901–1050m band is the most efficiently priced of the three — market prices are 22% shorter than what the results suggest they should be, yet still inefficient.

The 1050m+ band is around 60% too short, however, these are small samples, so there is reason to be cautious with this data.

The takeaway from the distance analysis is straightforward: regardless of trial distance, the market consistently prices trial winners too short first-up. The degree varies across the three bands, but the direction never changes. And at every trial distance, the market prices non-trial winners far more efficiently than trial winners.

Q3: Fast times relative to other trials on the day — are those horses also priced too short?

One of the things that a lot of trial pervs do - at least that I know of - is they will also compare times from other trials on the day, especially younger horses v older horses and so on.

So, I’ve taken each trial day at a given venue and distance — so, for example, all heats of 1050m at Deagon on the same day — and ranked every runner across all heats by their finish time. Q1 is the fastest 25% of all runners across the whole day’s trials at that track and distance, Q4 the slowest 25%.

The pattern is consistent with what we’ve found throughout.

In the fastest quartile — Q1 — trial winners are priced 31% shorter than their actual win rate justifies (market $5.38, true price $7.78, 451 runs). Trial non-winners from exactly the same quartile are priced with near-perfect accuracy — market $9.94, true price $10.17, essentially no gap across 641 runs.

The second quartile is much more efficient for both groups — winners 14% shorter than true price, non-winners 8% longer than they should be.

So, in short, trial winners are over-bet and trial winners in fast times are over-bet even more.

Q4: Does BSP price band tell us anything?

This analysis produced perhaps the most striking finding.

Horses that trialled but didn't win are priced more efficiently than trial winners overall, but the market still gets them wrong at shorter prices — the key distinction is that the mis-pricing is far more severe for trial winners.

In the under $3 band, trial winners are priced 25% shorter than their true odds ($2.26 market, $3.03 true price) against 17% for trial non-winners.

In the $3–$6 band, trial winners are priced 30% shorter than their true odds ($4.11 market, $5.91 true price) against 21% for non-winners. Again, the first-up story remains here, but trial winners are over-bet more than non trial winners.

The $6–$10 band tells the most interesting story. Trial non-winners are priced 13% too long — market $7.88, true price $7.00. Trial winners are priced 49% shorter than their true odds — market $7.53, true price $14.78.

As with the previous sections, winning a trial as opposed to not winning a trial, appears to be the key difference driving significant price discrepancies.

Takeaway Messages

• In line with the previous article’s finding that horses first-up are generally priced too short by the market, trial winners first-up are worse value still — priced on average 20% shorter than their results justify.

• To double-check there wasn’t something funny with the data, I ran the same analyses using SP rather than BSP. The same patterns existed but instead of trial winners being priced 20% too short with BSP, they were 32% too short using SP.

• Obviously, most smart punters are not solely backing a horse based off a trial. Nonetheless, the correlation between winning trials and being significantly over-valued by the market is stark and unmistakable in Brisbane metro racing.

• Clearly, and it is important to emphasise this, throughout this piece I am talking about the aggregated groups of trial winners and non-winners and there will always be exceptions to the rule. Some trial winners are in all likelihood under-bet or under-valued by the market. But they will certainly be that, the exception rather than the rule.

• For those building models or manually pricing races, it may be time to think some more about how much you are penalising horses first-up, and to consider if you are occasionally being swept in ‘trial mania’. I know I certainly have been guilty of that in the past.

Hopefully some of you get something out of this. It took me a minute to do it. Any errors are on me, and I’m sure someone will point these out if they see them….

I’ll be back on Saturday morning with more on the meeting at Doomben this weekend.

Notes

* To do this work, I collected all the data and then wrote some simple Python scripts and used Python’s visualisation tools to produce the visuals. I also used Claude to solve some issues with scripts and creating some of the final figures.

*Expected wins are calculated as in the previous article — using Betfair Starting Price (BSP), converting each price to an implied win probability and aggregating them.

Back to off-season racing which is a blessing and a curse. It certainly makes it easier and less time-consuming to prepare for a meeting.

I like this meeting at Doomben today. Some of these races I think we can attack and I think there are multiple winning chances in every race.

I also think some of the favourites look too short which suits my approach to these meetings using the model prices on Betfair.

I personally think R6 Zoubaby $7 (perhaps with something small on Chinqui too) and R9 Hatchet $8.5 are good bets on the card. Let’sfacethemusic looks a good bet in R5 too.

I took the opening price of $14 on Navy Pilot in R8. Smexy is a good chance in that too and a fair price but it is an open race.

I have added the full model prices for today further down for those interested.

Good luck all.

We have reached the final meeting of the QLD Winter carnival. This meeting is a good one each year and this is no different.

There is a small amount of rain forecast as potentially falling today and we are on a soft 7. There are numerous races with large fields so it will be interesting to monitor how the track fares.

This meeting last year, the track was a bit dryer than today, but it played well. They raced closer to the fence than I expect will be the case this year.

When it’s rail true and soft ground it’s generally about who can get to the crown of the track so lanes 5 to 12 are the spot but it depends on how much the track dries out throughout the day.

If it does dry out and track speeds suggest it is closer to a 5, then 1 or 2 off the fence will likely be okay. But that is a big if and the reports I’ve been given suggest 6 or 7 the whole day is very likely. So, I expect off fence will be the pattern.

One thing I would say is that barriers are not as important with this shape and pattern and it can be hard to lead. The A spot will likely be midfield or forward of midfield ready to peel to the middle.

The trick to this meeting in my view is working out what to do with that Ipswich meeting a few weeks ago. It’s not 1 + 1 = 2 it’s 1 +triangle or something similarly abstract. You can’t just go, ran well at Ippy, ready to go here. It doesn’t work like that. The tracks and patterns are almost the inverse of each other.

There is so much value today and is usual with my model it has found lots of those in the $6-$26 range as good value runners and overlays. The model crushed it last week with 7 of the 9 winners overlays and all 3 lays going under. Hopefully that continues today. More to come on that in the coming weeks.

Good luck all.

Subscribe now

I was tied up with some other commitments and didn’t have time to do an early preview of the Tiara during the week. Nonetheless, it is good to be back at Eagle Farm after the Ipswich meeting which is always tricky.

There is still a little bit of weather around and I am slightly wary about how the track will play. In the past, it has become quite chopped up by late in the day at this meeting. If that happens again it becomes a tricky meeting to bet with confidence.

Some of these races have really fallen away, especially in the middle of the meeting so there isn’t much meat on the bone when looking for value. The final few races look good and where most of the action will be.

In the value runners’ section – as per usual - I’ve listed a few of the bigger overlays my model has found against the market prices as of 9am for each race. There are less than usual as the meeting has a number of small fields.

Please remember, these aren’t tips. They are overlays on the model prices compared to the top market price on Saturday morning. It gives you a sense of what the model has found and may help you think about a race some more.

I mention this as I’ve had a few more questions about the model. Once the carnival is over I will talk about how I built the model and what goes into it in more detail and I will start sharing the full model prices in about a month’s time.

I need more data to verify that it is working but in simple terms it is designed for backing the overlays late on Betfair. Doing that over the last 4 months or so has led to a touch over 20% POT. That strategy doesn’t suit some people who can’t sit at the computer day in and day out and I get that, but it is an effective strategy if you do commit to it.

I will also post some more deep dives in the coming weeks on trials and a few other bits and pieces that I think will be interesting to some of you.

In terms of the bets I have already had on the meeting, I’ve had a small bet on La Bella Boom each way in R1, Istoleamerc in R2, Tannin and Klocke in R3, Manaal and Paradise City in the Tiara and Yellow Brick and Oak Hill in the last. My confidence in some of those has decreased with how soft the track has come up this morning.

I talked about it on the Little Birdie preview but I think Paradise City is a crazy price in the Tiara. The model priced it slightly longer than me but I’m not surprised it priced it around $18. I’m not declaring it by any means but I think it is a crazy price. I’ve had something on the win, place, top 4, top 6 and top 8.

Good luck all.

Subscribe now

The plan moving forward on days like these will be that I will only send out a Saturday morning preview. Next week will be an exception as it is the final Group 1 of the carnival.

This Ipswich meeting isn’t one I’m that keen on so my turnover today will be quite low. Nonetheless, there are bets and there are some races I like, especially later in the day.

I will still have some deeper dives into broader issues in racing in the coming weeks, but the meeting previews will just come through on Saturday morning.

In the value runners’ section – as per usual - I’ve listed a few of the bigger overlays my model has found against the market prices as of 9am for each race.

Potentially in a few weeks I may provide all the model prices for the meeting. It still needs more data and meetings to provide it provides long-term value so I’m not that keen to release it before it is tested further.

In terms of today, my best at Ipswich is Daggers in race 3. I think it looks exceedingly hard to beat on this track and back 50 metres in trip is beneficial. It should be strong late. My best each way of the day is Give Giggles in Race 9 at $13. I also like Encoder each way in the cup.

Good luck.

The big day has arrived. The track is a Heavy 9 as of 8am which is a bit of a surprise. I think it is likely to stay around the 7-8 range all day. It is a tricky meeting I have to say.

As per the previous weeks, I have posted a few lines on each race below the usual content in the table below. So, if you are looking for a short synopsis of each race, you can see that further down. Besides those I say I have already backed, I will be playing my prices late on Betfair. In the value runners’ section – as per usual - I’ve listed a few of the bigger overlays my model has found against the market prices as of 9am for each race.

There could be a number of scratchings during the day so I think I will just adjust as the day goes on.

A few people have asked me about the model. What I would say - like I said when I started this - is it is still a work in progress and I am tinkering so I don’t want to just give everyone the outputs and for mistakes to be made. My preference is some of the model content can help you think about races some more and maybe it helps you with some multiples or exotics. If it gives you an extra push, great.

Short summary of meeting

R1 – what do you do here? Favourite looked great in the trial, but do I want to dive into it at the price, not really, would really like to see something. War Eternal flying, Welwal good wet tracker I might put the fave in some little doubles and just play the race that way.

R2 – Interesting race. I thought Marffiano ticks a lot of boxes. Draws soft, you get Zahra and it is looking for 1200 and can sit behind what looks like a genuine speed. Hard to exceed trialled well and won well on debut. Looks like it might have to work to cross here, my only knock but you get Nash. Say You Will has been good at both career starts. I lean Marffiano from Say You Will given map.

R3 – I thought there could be a potential sneaky one in this. Newlook – started awkwardly last start and had to go out the back but I thought it was good through the line late. Had a terrible setup there, 28 back to 24 so that was a bridging run. If you go back through its form, it grows a leg on soft tracks and it has form that ties into these. Started single figures in the Chairmans which was a better race than this. Looks a perfect wet weather type. Think it is over the odds. In saying that I have Bella Montagna on top and think it is hard to beat.

R4 – Within the Law – wet tracks big tick, hard to knock Skyhook. I think they have the others covered fairly easily. Expect one of those to win but State Opera and Spice Prawn are good longshots on the wet track.

R5 – I have covered Cloudland at 60s and had a decent place bet on it. Loves soft tracks, just ignore dry track form. Payline has worn most people down but has found a good race here and the booking of Nash is a huge plus. Barber and Arabian Rose are the key dangers for me. Am covering all those four at this stage.

R6 – Niance 1300m? Soft Love 1300? Not sure about that for either but both good wet trackers. Firestorm was a ridiculous price earlier in the week, I took some of that She’s Got Pizzazz best run in the leadup. At present I am on those two.

R7 – There is no tempo in this race at all. Does Nash just take it up with Stormy Marco. You wouldn’t think so but crazier things have happened. Kickup Rocky wet track? Hmm not sure Berzelius similar. I feel that Tron Bolt has been overbet personally and is too short. But obviously hard to beat. Stormy Marco and Martist are ridiculous prices and will be my best results.

R8 – Written about this race a lot so won’t go on about it but have backed Headley, Transatlantic, Sepals, and Estadio. Splash back, Rothfire and Spicy Martini in exotics and quaddie as well.

R9 – Really depends on track condition late in the day. The only two that I considered are Vauban and Half Yours. Vauban out means you are left with Half Yours but I really do not want to take evens on it. I think it is too short.

Good luck.

We’ve arrived at the pinnacle for the Brisbane carnival each year, the Stradbroke.

The carnival goes from strength to strength and the quality of this edition of the Stradbroke is a testament to that.

While it would’ve been good to have Jimmysstar in the field, we still have a nice mix of established group one stars, emerging types and some exciting three-year-olds.

Weather and pattern

One of the main talking points in the lead-up to the race this week will be the weather. It has been a wet start to the week and as of Wednesday afternoon at 5pm, the track has received around 20mls of rain in the last 24 hours.

The forecasts point to between 5 and 15mls over the next few days. The last update had the track as a Soft 7 but I think this is understating things. I think we are already in the heavy range.

Looking towards Saturday, my best guess is we will be on a Soft 7 on race morning.

The other thing to mention is the rail. It goes out to 4m for this meeting, which is the standard approach for the three back-to-back meetings used by the club for the carnival.

I thought the track played well last week and despite the tendency for riders to head to the middle, the inside was either not inferior at all, or if it was, it may have only been lane 1.

However, when track conditions at Eagle Farm are like what we are expecting on Saturday, lanes 1-4 will likely be inferior and the middle and outside lanes will likely be preferred.

Race analysis

Clearly, when starting to dissect this race, the starting point is the main lead-up in the Kingsford Smith Cup. The first thing to say about that race was the tempo was below average. As evidenced on the data from the race below, they travelled through the first 400 metres at a solid tempo, found their spots, then had a mid-race steady-up and then sprinted home.

(screenshot taken from Performance section of Formking)

When I reviewed that race, what jumped out at me - besides the individual performances - was the way that race unfolded.

Most telling was the way the field spread across the track at the 400. They were 6 or 7 wide at the top of the straight. That shape was a direct product of the mid‑race slowdown shown in the sectionals.

What this meant was that horses that were well back on the turn sucked up behind the peloton, doing very little work. The horses I thought that most benefitted from this were Fangirl and von Hauke. So while their late sectionals are impressive, they had every right to rattle off good late splits as they did no work.

While the track conditions will play a role in this, I think it is unlikely the Stradbroke will produce a similar shape or mid-race splits. Most Stradbrokes are run at a good tempo and I don’t see any reason that this would be different.

Many in the Kingsford Smith were clearly not at their top for the race and were using it as a tune-up for this. Make no mistake, this is the Grand Final.

While track condition will evidently play a role, I also think it is likely that the best chance for some of the key chances is that there is a stronger tempo. I discuss this in more detail below, but the best chance that horses like Transatlantic have is to get rolling and try to make the others catch them like it did in the Toorak.

The map is therefore important and this is my current thinking which is significantly different to many others.

(screenshot taken from Speedmap section of Formking)

I’ve seen some maps which suggest Tuned will lead and I think that is bizarre personally. The key is how much pressure will come from out wide from Transatlantic, Sepals and Another Wil as there is good tempo from the inside.

I think the most likely scenario is Berry takes Transatlantic either to the lead or outside a horse like Private Eye and the others try to slot in either behind it or in the 3-wide line. A potentially big moment is how well Regal Award jumps as it has jumped awkwardly on a few occasions recently. That may have a knock-on effect on a number of runners and their positions in the run.

Sepals trainer Cliff Brown also commented this afternoon that his horses had no hope from their barriers and will be ridden quietly. I’m not sure if he is fibbing or not.

In any event, some of these backmarkers are going to be a long way off them on the turn and they will want to be good to run down the on-speed runners. That really brings us to one of these who will be out the back and is one of the main talking points in the race: Fangirl.

Fangirl: Is she a ‘goldilocks’ horse?

Given how much has been written and spoken about whether Fangirl will accept for the race, it is worth considering her profile in more detail.

She is an amazing mare, and a stalwart of group 1 racing for the best part of five years now.

When I was doing my work for this race I went deep into her form and profile, like I have done previously, and I was reminded of a pattern in her form.

She performs best off moderate tempos.

I’ve gone all the way back through her form, but to demonstrate the point here I’ve focussed on her last 12 starts. I’ve ordered her runs in that period by fastest to slowest tempos to the 600 metres. What you clearly see is that the quicker they go, her performances are nowhere near as impressive as those on slower tempos.

In fact, she has massively under-performed market expectations.

(screenshot taken from Performance tab on Formking)

The other thing which is fairly evident when looking at Fangirl’s profile is she loves drier tracks. I’m not convinced she gets either of these on Saturday.

So, while I have enormous respect for the mare, and JMac and Waller are geniuses, my starting point for the race from a pricing perspective is Fangirl needs to be attacked at the prices and will be over-bet. This is exacerbated by the dreaded World Pool.

Now if I am right and the tempo will be more genuine and the track is likely to be in the slow range, I thought it was worth looking into the data to see who had the standout data with those conditions in the 1400-1600 metre distance range.

The three that jump off the page with multiple entries each using that criteria are: Headley Grange, Transatlantic and Sepals.

The first two are easy to find off the Kingsford Smith performance and their profiles more generally. Sepals is one you need to take on trust. If you rewatch the replay, it did loom up last start, but was 6 or 7 wide and then condition gave out. The Doncaster Prelude run was also a head‑scratcher

Nonetheless, what this horse has shown in previous preparations is well and truly good enough to win this race. Not only did it win the Rupert Clarke, it started favourite in the Toorak that Transatlantic won and ran an enormous race against Autumn Glow in the Golden Eagle.

Taking all of this together, I think Sepals is the best long-shot in the race and I’ve already taken some of the $41 on offer. The rest of my market which is to 101% on a soft 7 is below.

(screenshot taken from Worksheet section of Formking)

Some takeaways from me of how I see the race as of Wednesday evening:

• Headley Grange is a deserved favourite. Best last start number, draws perfectly, will go forward and lob into an advantageous spot, loves the sting out.

• Transatlantic will improve lengths on last start and if it can produce a run similar to the Toorak, it can win this race.

• Fangirl is worth taking on at the current price.

• Regal Award was a great win last start but this is different gravy - and it still does too much wrong to be single figures.

• Estadio Mestella, Rothfire, Splash Back and Spicy Martini are good value runners at bigger prices.

• While I haven’t included prices for the emergencies in the above, if Sixties did make its way into the field, presumably at the expense of Fangirl, I think I would have it around $8-$10.

So, with all of this in mind, here is how I’m playing the race at this stage; I’m on Headley in futures markets and in some multis for a huge result. I took $21 Transatlantic last week as mentioned in the post I put up last week. I took some of the $41 on Sepals last night and today. My final decision will likely be which of Estadio, Rothfire, Spicy Martini or Splash Back I want to cover. I will put all those in the quaddie too and play around with some exotics.

As per usual, it is an amazing race. If someone said they wanted to have one or two bets in the race, and wanted to know what I think they should do, I would say back Headley and then pick your favourite value runner.

I will be back as per usual on Saturday morning with a longer preview, some value runners and some lays.

Subscribe now

Interesting meeting at Eagle Farm today. A lot of the form is coming out of the meetings at Doomben and Scone which worries me a little bit. I’m not sure how transferable some of that form is and whether there was a ‘fast lane’ at both tracks on those days. And, as I’ve said previously, we can see big turnarounds in form once we get to Eagle Farm.

The track was interesting last week, a lot of people were saying you needed to be in the crown or you had no chance. I’m not sure about that personally but I presume they will drift off a few lanes again. I’m surprised that they have the track rating as a 5 still this morning. I was expecting the track to be firmer than this. On my track speeds, the meeting last week played like a 5. So, given this, and the fact we keep saying it is holding more moisture than in previous years, I would say it is likely that it will be a Good 4 but with some give.

I have posted a few lines on each race below the table. So, if you are looking for a short synopsis of each race, you can see that further down. Besides those I say I have already backed, I will be playing my prices late on Betfair. In the value runners’ section – as per usual - I’ve listed a few of the bigger overlays my model has found against the market prices as of 9am for each race. Pattern is going to very important today so I think it is a day to be nimble and adjust prices after the first few races.

Short summary of card

R1

I don’t love this race and thought the market was screwed down. Kaluakoi was a good win last start, leading at a good tempo and kicking off it, Cavalry Man was obviously unlucky last start and Rotagilla brings strong form lines from Sydney. Not much meat on the bone. Slight lean Cavalry Man.

R2

I’m keen on Now is the Hour. There is no spoil with the price, and those who know me can attest that I am not someone who launches into favourites that often. I have it $2.3. Would prefer track to be firmer than this. Want it closer to a 3 than a 5 for it to excel. Restronica looks dangerous. I may have something on it late on Betfair, but I’m keen on the favourite.

R3

These 1000m races at Eagle Farm can be funny affairs. I liked the fresh run of Steady Ready. It was a much improved performance on recent preparations and provides a strong platform to get back close to the best form from a while ago. Monte Supreme is a flying machine. If it can get any sort of cart into the race it will be steaming home. Will need a good ride by Rachel King but expecting it to be launching. Will be playing both.

R4

This is a strange race. The exposed form looks of dubious quality and then there are others with upside that we don’t know much about. Feels like most are guessing with their bets in this. I didn’t mind the run of Gold Czech against Martist last preparation, so I may have a small 1 X 3 on it – I don’t want to touch these favourites at these prices. Low turnover and interest race for me.

R5

Keen to back some value runners at double figures. Shady Road is the wrong price – was awesome LS, 1200 on a big track is a big tick. Crash the Party probably needs 1400 but with tempo on will be hitting the line strongly. Sequista was also good fresh and is dangerous and one at 50s I don’t mind is Champagne Lane. Has form that ties in with these. Backing them all between 12 and 50s. Early pattern may change my thinking.

R6

I have Churchill’s Choice favourite but I’m not completely comfortable about it. The key leadup was also an odd race. I thought JMac lifted Pinito over the line. Blindedbythelight is a big improver on the this track and I presume they roll forward. Will be on it. Pippie Beach is building towards something. Bengal Diamond and Surfin’ Bird also interest me. Will play the prices closer to the race on Betfair.

R7

Tempo should be decent enough with Kronenbourg rolling along. I thought King Zephyr was one to oppose early but the scratchings have greatly enhanced its chances. The booking of Williams is huge. I think it is probably better than these but the pattern is vital. The only other one I want to back is Sun God. I thought Harry’s Yacht may be vulnerable at 1500 on the big track. Tavs and Rising Pacific could be good roughies and improvers. Kronenbourg in a wider quaddie too.

R8

Nothing screams back me in this. I’m on Fireball in some multis and plan on having something on Chispa. I respect the runs on the board Panova has, but not sure what this prep is – 6 weeks between runs? Guess this stable can do it. Few others like Parvenu, Grand Omaha, Solid Gold, Soverato are not out of it either and I will put them in quaddie. Low turnover race.

R9

Manaal is high-quality. However, I did wonder if she might be a tad vulnerable first-up against these that are up and going. Her grand final looks to be in the Tiara in 3 weeks. KOS carried the big weight fresh but they walked and it tanked up behind them. Is it alive? Been off the scene for a long time before that run. Obviously if it is back it has these covered, but I think I want to see it first. Boomtown Boss no luck at all LS – still isn’t out. Seems short enough against these for mine. I like the value in this race. I had something on Hidden Wealth when it was $10 and have also covered some longshots in Oak Hill, Metalart and Esjay. Zou Sensation in the quaddie with all those and the Gollan horses.

Longer video preview we did for Little Birdie is available here

Good luck all.

Subscribe now

Evening all,

I’ve been distracted with other matters this week so haven’t had time to do a longer post on the Oaks so I will do a quick summary of my current thoughts on the race, add a few thoughts on some other races on the card and a quick comment on the Stradbroke.

The Oaks

This is an interesting race to analyse for a few reasons but the main one is that the key lead-up - The Roses - was run at such a farcical tempo. On my data they went close to 20 lengths below the expected class average. This poses all sorts of problems in working out whether any of the performances there were ‘fake news’ or not.

There also doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of tempo in this race so there is a chance that something unexpected happens and, if we are lucky, a change of tactics from some stables may be sent through on race morning.

Despite this, at the prices, I am going to back one of those out of that form line in Chispa and am already on another in Fireball Miss. I was against Chispa last start but was very impressed with the style and the strength she showed. She looks a strong and powerful filly that can sprint and can also get this distance. In terms of Fireball Miss, I had a Roses-Oaks futures multi last start so have that rolling this weekend at a massive price.

Panova - the favourite - has drawn ideally. Her last start performance in Adelaide rated very highly, a clear top rating performance in this field. However, I do have to query 6 weeks between runs, despite having a tickover trial on the 25th of May. At this stage, I think I might save on Panova and play the race that way.

There are a few others in the race that I like as types and may throw in a quaddie - Parvenu, Grand Omaha, Soverato and Solid Gold. Each has claims but I think Panova, Chispa and Fireball Miss have stronger claims and need to be the starting point.

Rest of the card

I will be back on Saturday morning as per usual and will also be on the Little Birdie preview tomorrow with a look at the whole card. Nonetheless, at this stage one of my main bets on the card is Now is the Hour in race 2. Finally drawn a gate which should allow for a more economical run and a drying track is a big positive. My notes from last start were: ‘luckless, dry track, better barrier and goes very close’. I’ve marked it $2.8 at present and there is $3.4 around so that is an auto bet for me.

The Moreton Cup is an interesting race being the final golden ticket race into the Stradbroke. The composition of the field is, however, a little odd I thought. You have proper 6 furlong types against those coming back in trip.

My early thoughts are that Hidden Wealth is a ridiculous price at $10. Likewise, I thought Oak Hill and Esjay at over $20 are easy covers for me. Both ran really well last start. I also have a sense that Metalart may be a big improver here at over $30. I’m having something on all those and all in the quaddie.

I’m happy to let horses like In Flight, Uncommon James and King of Sparta beat me at their current prices of around $6-7.

The Stradbroke

You may have seen the current order of entry for the Stradbroke after first acceptances on Wednesday. If you haven’t here is an image of what has been posted online.

The field is largely set now with two main talking points left. The first of these is who wins the last Golden Ticket from the Moreton Cup and whether they will press on to the race. The second and probably more consequential is whether Fangirl accepts for the race or decides to target the Tatts Tiara.

I'm not sure what they will decide, but given the weather forecast for next week (see below), I would say it is far from certain they will go to the Stradbroke.

I’m fortunate enough to be sitting on some juicy tickets on a few of these in the field, including Headley Grange. However, one that I have backed in recent days is Transatlantic.

The Kingsford Smith Cup last week was not an ideal race. It was below the ideal trip and the conditions of that race were not advantageous. Despite that I thought the horse ran really well. There is currently $21 available on Ladbrokes/Neds and I think pre-barriers it is closer to an $8-$12 chance.

I’ve snaffled as much of that as I can and if you are looking to build a little book around a few runners this is an easy way to start.

I will be back on Saturday morning with more on the rest of the card.

Subscribe now

The track is in good shape. As I mentioned the other day, it was always going to improve and the Soft 6 I expected has eventuated. We should have a lot of confidence in the surface.

I think the track speeds are likely to suggest the track is around the softer side of ‘dead’ range to start the day and then it will just be how firm it gets later. I will post an update on Twitter after the first few races.

As I’ve mentioned a few times, I have a theory the inside few lanes are not as inferior as in previous seasons. This can be awkward to deal with from a punting perspective as the peloton rolls off the fence and then a runner out the back, saves significant ground. Given the surface is dryer today than last time we were at Eagle Farm, it should make that strategy less effective but worth monitoring pattern.

As it is such a big day, I have posted a few lines on each race below the usual content in the table below. So, if you are looking for a short synopsis of each race, you can see that further down. Besides those I say I have already backed, I will be playing my prices late on Betfair. In the value runners section I’ve listed 2 or 3 of the bigger overlays my model has found against the market prices as of 9am for each race.

Short summary of card

Race 1 – The tempo looks moderate which doesn’t help Iron Man but it’s a huge price that you can back each way or 1 X 3. Sunset Dreaming choked down last start, she is better than that. Daggers can win but is too short. Bengal Diamond can win, I may cover. I am Carrot is dangerous, but I also thought too short.

Race 2 –Lyles could be a moral, think it is the best horse moving forward, track drying out helps, will stalk the speed and then JMac will look for the gaps and think it will be strong late. Belegato is a great value runner, loves this track and distance. Swordplay tongue tie on has to be a query, latest trial was a negative. Petticoat and Manolo Bling also good value runners too.

Race 3 - Royal Supremacy 3^rd up ready to go now. Deserved favourite. Sun Worshipper and So you Are look overs and race shape last start didn’t suit and they didn’t get a lot of luck. Alalcance poorly ridden last start. Will be playing around with those four.

Race 4 – I’ve been backing Martist daily for two weeks in this and the JJ. Run of the day at Doomben last start. Stormy Marco looks like a strange profile given it had a starting price of $34 last start, but Autumn Boy was similar last year. Has to be covered at the price given connections. Home Tomurra and Berzelius are both overs for mine. They both have ability. Blind Raise 5 weeks between runs? Maybe tick over for the JJ? Vantorix 1400 EF? I am Dirty, less against but similar concerns. Great race.

Race 5 – If Militarize is $2.5 at Eagle Farm, Flemington, Gatton or Uzbekistan I’m betting as while I would love to own this horse and good luck to connections, I think it is a mirage. Depth of Character $13 and Encoder $14 are both flying and over the odds. Tavi Time started favourite in this race last year and looks so hard to beat on this improving track. Golden Path and Miss Joelene not out of it either at good prices. At this stage, I will likely play those first three.

Race 6 – Amazing race. I would say race of the carnival, but the Kingsford Smith may take the crown. Brave Monarch draws so well, looks like he will be the one they have to run down but back in trip has to be a query. Within the Law is one of the bets of the day. Last start was enormous. I think I will likely cover Sixties, Skyhook and Wodeton. Plenty of other chances including Grafterburners, Estremo, Beadman, and Skyglider.

Race 7 – I would love to get away from the Rough Habit form as it was a walkathon. Not sure we can trust those performances. There could be some big form turnarounds. Solid Gold was very good there despite that. Monopolistic was huge against the older horses. I’ve also covered Different Gravy, O’Sheamus and Buthelezi. Anything goes really.

Race 8 –I haven’t backed Jimmysstar yet but think I will cover late. Already covered Headley Grange and Transatlantic who I think are live chances and look hard to beat. Desert Lightning and Sepals are massive prices. Could be a tickover for the Stradbroke but easy to cover at these prices and will be winners for me. Final decision will come down to track speeds and condition and that will determine if I consider Fangirl or King of Rosseau among others.

Race 9 – Some of these are having a prep run to get ready for mares’ series races and heading towards the Tiara in 4 weeks’ time. Niance is my starting point, was a complete forgive last time out, main bet. Dance to the Boom is a crazy price and have covered that. Nafiah, Lonhro’s Queen, Poster Girl, Super Smink are dangerous. Will make decisions close to race.

Longer video preview we did for Little Birdie also available here

Good luck all.

Subscribe now

Evening all,

What a meeting we have at Eagle Farm on Saturday. Incredibly strong races across the card. One of the strongest meetings I can ever recall in Brisbane.

I will speak about the Kingsford Smith Cup more below but before then a few things worth mentioning. The first of these is the weather and how the track will play.

Weather and Track

Wednesday night and today (Thursday) we had fairly sustained rain and we have had around 50mls fall in that time period. The track has been downgraded to a Heavy 8 as of 4pm Thursday afternoon and there looks like there are a few drops in the next 24 hours but all clear on Saturday.

I wouldn’t worry too much about that. Eagle Farm is the best draining track in Australia.

I’m expecting the official rating to be either a Soft 6 or 7 on Saturday morning and my best guess is my data suggests it plays like it in the 5-6 range.

As many of you would know, when we have rain, it is usually well off-fence and lanes 4-12 are where most of the action is.

Normally I would expect similar on Saturday, however, over the last few months we have noticed the track has been holding moisture much more than in previous seasons.

What this has meant is that we have had more winners up the inside - Splash Back one recent example. My working theory on this is the jockeys are treating the track like previous seasons, but in reality the inside is either not inferior or it is less inferior than it traditionally is on rain affected tracks.

I have some data to support all this that I will post about in coming weeks, but that is something to keep in mind and track on Saturday.

The Kingsford Smith Cup

I’ve been trying to think of a stronger race in recent memory in QLD and I am coming up blank. This edition is stacked. 11 Group 1 winners contesting this edition says it all.

To the race itself, it is both a grand final and stepping stone race for runners and that is important to consider.

Many of these are safely in the Stradbroke field and some connections will view that as a more suitable assignment than the conditions of this race.

For others, they likely need to win this race or run top 3 to make the Stradbroke field.

Another dimension to this race - and the carnival as a whole - is that moving from Doomben to Eagle Farm can produce large form turnarounds both positively and negatively.

Clearly, one of the big talking points of the carnival so far has been whether Jimmysstar is going as well as previously. Some have been keen to label his performance in the Doomben 10,000 a ‘flop’ or that he had ‘every chance’.

I personally thought it was a disappointing run on face value but the more I looked at the data out of that race I think there were legitimate excuses.

He stepped slow, was shuffled back to the inside to 4 back the fence - which is a horrific spot at Doomben - and then was blocked for a run for a short period. I was expecting more but he also didn’t get the brakes.

Most have also ignored the shape of that race. If you break the 10,000 into 3 X 400 metre splits, the data is very revealing.

The leaders dropped the anchor in the middle stages of the race and for those caught in the ruck it was a stop-start affair.

Looking for more positives for Jimmy, Eagle Farm has to be a gigantic positive given the big long straight and given the tendency lately to step slow, out in trip will also help him.

There are also negatives. There is little tempo in this race. I presume one of Transatlantic, Private Eye, Headley Grange or Rothfire take this up and that group will look to control this.

So, as of Thursday afternoon, these are my current prices on the race:

(screenshot from Worksheet section of Formking)

To begin with, I haven’t given a real price to the four emergencies below Von Hauke. I don’t see them getting a run here with the track improving and given the stakes, unless something unexpected happens.

Secondly, given what I have said above, I do think Jimmy is worth another chance. I’d expect a strong performance given the conditions of this race. I will be having multiple bets in the race and Jimmysstar will be one of them. He simply has numbers in his locker that no other runner in this field has even come close to. The barrier is irrelevant.

Two others that I like at the prices that will be on-speed are Headley Grange and Transatlantic. There is a lot to like about both of these in this race. Both have the numbers and versatility to be very dangerous on Saturday and in two weeks in the Stradbroke.

Two others at bigger prices I will also cover with smaller bets are Sepals and Desert Lightning. I think both are great long shots in this race at the current prices and are dangerous.

In terms of the others:

• Fangirl will need a dry deck, so that is very much track dependent. If it improves significantly I could reconsider her but I do wonder if the Tiara is her race in four weeks.

• Splash Back may try the same trick as last time and go up the inside. This is probably not the right race for her here, the Stradbroke may be more her go with the conditions of that race.

• King of Rosseau and Yellow Brick are also dangerous, especially if the track dries out. But my sense is the target for both is the Stradbroke and while they may run well here, their grand final is in two weeks.

• Skybird is dangerous and Eagle Farm should suit but I thought she was about the right price.

• Private Eye is competitive and I love this horse but I thought short enough at the moment.

• Rothfire I genuinely have no idea what to do with. He ran a similar race in the 10,000 this year to last year then his form tailed off so I wonder if the old boy only has 1 big run a prep in him at this stage of the career.

I completely understand that cases can be made for and against many of these so it is a great betting race.

Now, before I finish, I will just mention a few other runners at bigger prices I like on the card in case the prices are nabbed between now and Saturday.

Race 1 - Iron Man $34 - ridiculous price, I have it less than half this.

Race 2 - Belegato $23 - I think Lyles looks hard to beat but have covered Belegato. Loves these conditions and will be dangerous with the tempo in this race.

Race 4 - Martist $9 and Stormy Marco $10 - backed both at bigger prices and again today. Home Tomurra $26 I also think is over the odds. Keen to attack the favourites in this race.

Race 6 - Within the Law $23 - insane price. I have this marked single figures. I think it can win this race and if it does, it can give the Stradbroke a shake.

Race 7 - The Rough Habit was an awful lead-up for the Derby, so I went looking for different form. Different Gravy, Buthelezi both around $20 fit the bill.

I will be back on Saturday and will add as much detail as I can then as it is such an epic meeting.

Subscribe now

Headline news this morning is the track is much firmer than expected a day or two ago. This is similar to last week but changes my thinking significantly on this meeting now. Morning fluctuations on some of these races suggests the market is playing catch-up to the changed conditions.

It is a day to be nimble and adjust based on track speeds and patterns. I think I will just watch R1 for more information.

Subscribe now

I don’t really have a best bet today, I like lots of value runners. Some of these I have included in the below which are at the time of writing some of the bigger overlays across the meeting.

Gun to my head which runner I would back if I had to: Now is the Hour R2. The model also had this shortest priced runner of the day.

I said it elsewhere but I think Miss Black Betty R3 is a very interesting runner and has something about her.

She is a 2.4 million dollar purchase and sired by Savabeel and out of an O’Reilly mare. She might not be ready for this, and may need further and to furnish a bit more but the last trial was incredibly soft, and the fresh run just wasn’t the right shape and I thought she stuck on well. I would not be surprised with a big improvement today. I’m backing her small the win and plenty the place price which is around $10.

Longer video preview we did for Little Birdie also available here

Good luck all.

I wish I could say I love this edition of the Doomben Cup. But I don’t.

Firstly, I just wanted to touch on the Doomben track last weekend. The track raced much firmer than was expected. My track speeds after race 2 had it closer to dead (5.4 to be exact) and that held up for the rest of the meeting. I don’t think anyone was expecting that and some of the results were partially explained by a much firmer surface.

We have had a lot of rain this week, especially on Monday. The official ratings are currently a Heavy 10. But given there is no rain forecast for the next few days I’m expecting they likely go up around a Soft 6/7 Saturday morning and on my track speeds I’m expecting between a 5 and a 6 again.

In terms of the race, obviously the Hollindale is the race that everyone is reviewing and looking at. I was against Pride of Jenni and Birdman there and got that race wrong.

In reviewing that meeting, watching the Hollindale replay numerous times and going through the data, something about that race doesn’t sit well with me.

I’ve been trying to identify what exactly about the Hollindale makes me think there is a stench to it. I think there are a few parts, including:

· Half Yours barely participated. After the jump, it got a little squeeze and then naturally found its feet and Jamie was looking for a spot and likely would have got in but rather than risk being 3 wide the trip, decided to go back and ended on the back of Miss Joelene (I love Miss Joelene, she is one of my favourite mares ever), but she was out of her grade and was not going to take Half Yours into the race).

· Golden Path and Zoology who were sitting 2^nd and 3^rd in the run ended up being traffic cones for She’s a Hustler and Birdman taking them absolutely nowhere and they had to get off their heels, off the fence and around them on the corner. And with them going nowhere, Half Yours couldn’t take off either pushing it even further back and away from Jenni.

· Kovalica finishing up all their backsides is a big red flag to me. While a very good horse, and I wish I owned it, Kovalica is not exactly a force in WFA middle distance races.

· Most important, however, is that while visually spectacular, the data out of the race in terms of the overall time was solid but certainly not amazing. On my data, the time was exactly in line with the class average for that grade of race.

So, I’m not sure if I smell a rat (correctly) or the Hollindale has broken something in my brain. We shall see.

My starting assumptions for the race on Saturday that have shaped some of my thinking are the following:

· Pride of Jenni (POJ) does her usual thing, sets off establishing a break of at least 5 lengths mid-race;

· Vauban and She’s a Hustler sit in the first two pairs and are at the front of the chasing pack;

· She’s a Hustler and Half Yours improve significantly from the Hollindale, and they should strip much fitter. They were only 2nd-up there against Birdman and POJ who were deeper into their preparation;

· She’s a Hustler and Half Yours will improve out in trip. Both have peak ratings at 2000 or further;

· I’m expecting a positive performance from Vauban. It trialled like a skunk. BUT it did similar before it came out and won the Sky High in March;

· We don’t know what the ceiling is with Asterix;

· The best wet trackers in the race are Vauban and She’s a Hustler in case something crazy happens with the weather. I would be even harder against POJ and Birdman on a proper Soft 7 or worse;

· When POJ has been beaten since the Doomben Cup last year, 4 of the 5 winners of those races have sat in the first 2 pairs. The exception being Ceolwulf in the King Charles. To me, that is a small but significant clue that you do not want to be out the back;

My current prices on the race are below.

(screenshot of prices from worksheet section of Formking)

So, yes, at the prices, I am taking on the great mare and Birdman again. I may have egg on my face again. But I think the performances in the Hollindale are fake news.

To me the race is very even. I understand the early drift on Half Yours and the firm for She’s a Hustler. Only the latter is a potential bet for me at the current prices. If I find out they plan to sit closer in the run on Half Yours that would change my thinking significantly and I would have it the clear favourite. In saying this, I’m not desperate to back either of them at the moment and get too heavily involved.

The two that I have backed so far are Vauban and Asterix.

The market seems to be totally ignoring Vauban. Multiple runs in the last three preparations finishing a few lengths off horses like Sir Delius, Lindermann and Dubai Honour measure up well for this. The only question I really have is at 8 does Vauban still have it to win a race like this. Being fresh here doesn’t worry me with this stable. And, at the prices and bringing different form, this feels a low risk play to me in a race I don’t want to over-invest in.

Asterix is very intriguing. Was decent last preparation, but has come out and gone bang-bang this preparation. The win last start was dominant. On my data, on recent ratings he only needs to find a length and he is in this race. I was able to snag $26 on Monday all-in and had a small bet then.

Depending on what happens with the prices of Half Yours and She’s a Hustler, and any news about plans on how they will be ridden, I will make a decision on which or both to cover or save on. At this stage I am leaning to covering She’s a Hustler and just riding the three bets on it, Vauban and Asterix and just play smaller in the race. But crazy shit happens on race day.

As I mentioned in the Doomben 10,000 article last week, I covered Jimmysstar, Beadman and Napoleonic and thought I would leave it at that. But as we got closer to the race, a few roughies blew out to absolutely crazy prices on Betfair. Luckily for me Rothfire was one of them that I covered. So here is my trumpet on the old boy:

It pays to play the overlays late on Betfair. I will do similar for the Doomben Cup and will be taking on the stink from the Hollindale.

I will be back with more on Saturday morning.

Subscribe now