This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today/tonight. The yellow color is a level 2 Slight Risk and the dark green is a level 1 Marginal Risk. SPC says: “Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur.”

This is the Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Map for Thursday. Much of West Michigan is in the level 1 or Marginal Risk Area.

SPC says: “The current thinking is that initial storms will be supercellular, accompanied by mainly a severe wind and hail threat (a few stones of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter). However, if storms merge, a cold-pool-driven MCS may develop, perhaps even taking on bowing tendencies should it traverse the surface boundary. In this scenario, a focused severe wind swath could occur, and a couple of gusts may exceed 75 mph. Given such subtle forcing for ascent expected, and the dependency on finer mesoscale details for a higher-end severe threat, only Category 2/Slight Risk probabilities were introduced for now. If consistency in guidance consensus continues to show bow echo evolution, higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.”

There is still a chance of a thunderstorm on Friday. Most of the Labor Day Weekend looks warm (afternoon temperatures near 80 with a little less humidity and it will be dry most of the weekend.

Here’s the 3 day total rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. The remains of Tropical Storm will continue to push into east Texas. Wind gusts hit 50-75 along the coast with landfall near Beaumont. While some flooding has occurred, that area has been on the dry side,

A cool, wet pattern will bring showers to the Pacific Northwest down the coast into northern California. That area has also been fairly dry this summer. There will be more showers and storms for parts of Arizona with the potential for isolated flooding. Moisture from Hurricane Marie will likely keep scattered thunderstorms going in the Southwest into next week.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will bring thunderstorms, but little to no severe weather. BTW - ignore that dark area in Iowa…looks like someone’s hat.

If we get a fair amount of sun today, this could turn out to be the warmest day of September. High temperatures could reach the low 90s inland and low 80s at Lake Michigan. Clouds and a storm or two could keep temps. down a bit. There’s cooler air to the north, with highs in the 70s in northern Lower and Upper Michigan.

Here’s some climate information for today. Sunrise is now at 7:08 am and sunset at 8:16 pm, giving us 13 hours and 8 minutes of daylight. We’re losing daylight at a relatively rapid clip now - at the rate of almost 3 minutes per day.

The average high and low temperature (78/58) has dropped 5 degrees since August 1. The record high for today is 98 in 1913, the year my father was born. We won’t get that warm today. The record low temperatures are mainly now in the 30s. With the longer nights it can get cool here in Michigan.

Here’s high temperatures forecast for Thursday. It may be a couple degrees cooler than today (Wed.), but still well above average.

What’s left of Edouard is now just a showery tropical depression in east Texas. Peak wind gusts with Edouard included 68 mph at Port Arthur and 59 mph at Beaumont. There are no other storms in the Atlantic, which has been unusually quiet this year. September 10 is the mid-point of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We have had 5 named tropical storms. None of the five reached hurricane status.

It’s a different story in the eastern Pacific, where we have two hurricanes and a tropical storm that will reach hurricane status in the next few hours. Karina will continue northwest and is no threat to land. Marie should be a significant hurricane. While it will stay a good distance away from Mexico (Baja), it will pump moisture into the Southwest. That will produce showers, storms and some local flooding.

Hurricane Lowell is passing south of Hawaii, but this storm will have to be watched. It should make a right turn and move north, getting closer to Kauai. There was a hurricane in 1992 (Iniki) that produced a lot of damage on the island of Kauai.

Don’t know if you saw this. The NWS has verified an amazing 6.6” diameter hailstone that fell at Kankakee as the biggest hailstone ever in the state of Illinois. That’s incredible enough, but factor in that it fell on March 10 - which is WINTER! It kind of looks like a bunch of ice cubes stuck together. Illinois has had more tornadoes this year than any other state.

A quick “Happy Birthday” to daughter #3.

According to preliminary reports from the Storm Prediction Center, there were fewer than 100 tornadoes in the U.S. in August. Ninety-six of the 98 August twisters are plotted on the above map.

Note that there were no tornadoes in Michigan in August. There were more tornadoes in Arizona than in Kansas and Oklahoma combined. Many of the tornadoes hit from eastern Iowa to southwest Ohio. Northern Indiana also had the derecho on August 11. That storm had several measured wind gusts of 96-99 mph and one place where the top estimated wind gust was 100-110 mph - equivalent to a strong EF1 tornado.

This is the Enhanced Fujita Scale. We rate tornadoes from EF0 to EF5. In August we had only 4 tornadoes rated EF2 and no tornadoes that were rated EF3, EF4 or EF5.

There have been 15 tornado fatalities in the U.S. in 2026 from 8 separate tornadoes in 6 different states. Four of those fatalities occurred in Michigan during the March 6 tornado outbreak.

Here’s the plotted paths of the tornadoes that occurred in Cass, St. Joseph, Branch and Calhoun Counties on March 6, 2026. Check out this video of the tornado by Union Lake. The Union Lake tornado was stronger than any tornado in the U.S. during the month of August. These 4 tornadoes were spawned by the same parent thunderstorm as it moved from southwest to northeast.

The strongest tornado so far this year in the U.S. hit Enid, Oklahoma on April 23rd. That is the only EF4 tornado so far this year in the U.S. There was also an EF4 tornado that struck Pirai do Sul in Brazil on August 8th.

Thanks for reading my post…have a great awesome September.

The computer models have been quite consistent - forecasting warmer than average temperatures in Michigan and for much of the country into mid-September. We may start calling this pattern “endless summer”. There will be a “heat dome” or “heat ridge from the Plains into the Southeast.

Here’s the forecast upper air flow for September 2. There’s a tough along the West Coast. This should bring showers down into northern California. The warm, high pressure ridge extends from Texas and New Mexico to the mid-Atlantic states.

Often there are thunderstorms (a few with strong to severe wind gusts) along the periphery of the ridge, which may include Michigan. Here the wind has to squeeze together and speed up as it passes between the Low in Canada and the High along the KY/TN border. Low pressure in Florida and along the gulf should bring a few rounds of thunderstorms there.

The 8-14 day rainfall outlook has above average rainfall from the mountains of Mexico up into much of the western U.S. Alaska and Hawaii may also be on the wet side.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today/tonight. There is a Marginal Risk of strong wind in storm north of US 10 in Lower Michigan.

SPC says: “…isolated activity is possible from Iowa into northern Illinois/northern Michigan late tonight”.

The Severe Weather Outlook Map for Tuesday/Tuesday night shows a Marginal (level 1) risk from US 10 to the south.

SPC says: “Given the strong overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear, any storm that can mature and become sustained may become multicellular or supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. At the moment, storm coverage should be sparse, since upper support with the Great Lakes mid-level trough should only graze the warm frontal zone, and the approach of the central Plains impulse should occur late in the period. Therefore, despite the favorable convective environment, probabilities have been maintained at Category 1/Marginal Risk.”

Hope you have a nice day. Thanks for writing my post.

We’ll end August with a warm and rather humid day. High temperatures will reach the mid-upper 80s in inland areas and mid-upper 70s at Lake Michigan. The warm air extends north to Lake Superior. Temperatures will climb to the low-mid 80s in Upper Michigan.

A few inland areas could reach 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. It could reach 80 at the Lake Michigan beaches both days and mid-80s in the U.P.

Here’s the Atlantic forecast from the Hurricane Center. The yellow area is the remnant moisture from “Dolly”. It will kick up some thundershowers over Florida, but I don’t think it develops into the tropical storm.

The red-hatched area has a little better chance of developing into a low-end tropical storm later this week. The greatest threat here would heavy rain in Louisiana and southeast Texas.

Here’s the eastern Pacific. The yellow-hatched area southwest of Hawaii won’t develop into anything. “Lowell” is a tropical storm as I write this, but will probably reach minimal hurricane status. It’s tracking west and could affect Hawaii in a couple of days. “Karina” is a minimal hurricane and is moving northwest. The storm could also bring heavy showers and high surf to Hawaii.

The red-hatched area will become Hurricane Marie (daughter #2, note the name). When it forms will be better able to track it. The storms are too far west to have much affect on Mexico. However, there is an above average amount of moisture in the Southwest. That helped generate the flooding in the Grand Canyon area.

As I write this, the dew point in Phoenix AZ and in Yuma AZ is 70. That’s very high for Arizona. Phoenix is reporting light rain.

The western Pacific has a lot of tropical activity, but no significant threats at the moment. “Etau” is back to just a tropical depression. “Bang-Lang is weakening as it moves north into cooler water.

There’s no sign of any extended, cool, fall-like weather during the next 2 weeks. Warmer than average temperatures are expected over much of the country, with cooler than average weather in the Pacific Northwest.

Near average rainfall is expected in the Great Lakes. Keep in mind that while the overall rainfall may be near average, there will be individual places that can receive above or below average.

Keeping that in mind…check out the 3-day rainfall forecast for Grand Rapids. “Expected” is just 0.07”…not much…BUT…the high end is 1.3”. Warm season convective rain is often hit or miss.

I’ll add that I think many areas will get a bit more rain that this model is predicting.

Here’s a national view of expected rainfall over the next 3 days. There will be a warm upper-level high pressure center over the Ozarks (MO and AR) with thunderstorms around the periphery of the high…from Arizona up through the Rockies…across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and into northern Lower Michigan. There will also be storms in the Southeast U.S.

Here’s high temperatures for this Saturday. Inland areas should reach the low 80s. An onshore southwesterly breeze will keep things a bit cooler near Lake Michigan. The mild air extends north into Upper Michigan, where it will be in the comfortable 70s.

We’ll be a touch warmer on Sunday, with readings in the mid 80s inland and mid-upper 70s close to Lake Michigan. Temperatures next week will vary a bit due to the timing of thunderstorms and cloud cover associated with the storms.

The moon is still full today. Venus still shines brightly in the west after sunset. The Big Dipper is usually pretty easy to find.

Turning to the Tropics…Tropical Storm "Dolly” fizzled as fast as it formed. The Hurricane Center has outlined two areas in yellow on the Atlantic Map. Both of them have only about a 10% chance of development. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept 10 and I don’t see much developing before that. When we have a strong El Nino, we often have fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic Sector.

The eastern Pacific has been more active…we’re already down to the “L” in Lowell and “Marie” will be next named storm next week.

“Lowell” is moving west and even though it may reach hurricane status, the worst of the storm should stay south of Hawaii. “Karina” is moving northwest and will likely remain well north of Hawaii.

Here’s a pic. of the Holland Beach from Thursday afternoon…sunshine, a yellow flag (caution) and waves around 2 feet. Water temperatures were in the mid-upper 60s. With the wind coming off the cool water, it was cooler at the lake. The high temperature Thursday was 80° in Grand Rapids and 82° in Kalamazoo. Here at the end of the Holland Channel, the high temperature was just 70°.

Winds should be light this Friday and green flags should be flying at the beaches.

I went outside periodically to view the lunar eclipse. The sky was clear and the temperature was 60 degrees where I am in Alpine Township. This picture is from the Little Rock AR National Weather Service. This was a 96% eclipse. The part of the moon in the Earth’s shadow didn’t go completely dark. A little light bends as it comes through the Earth’s atmosphere, giving the shadowed part of the moon a dim, reddish hue (which you can’t see very well in this pic.

There was some speculation about a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that occurred last Tuesday and whether that could ignite the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis). As of 3 am Friday, that has not happened.

Tropical Storm “Dolly” is in the central Atlantic, moving west toward the Virgin Islands. As of now, it’s expected to weaken back to a depression, which would give the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico a showery, breezy couple of days. Some local flooding could happen, but it’s too early to speculate on that.

The eastern Pacific remains active. In the upper left, “Lala” will diminish to a depression today as it continues moving north into cooler water. Tropical Storm Karina will probably become a hurricane as it moves northwest. At present it’s not threat to land. Tropical Storm will also likely achieve hurricane status. After that it may weaken a touch as it passes by Hawaii.

Here’s the western Pacific. Typhoon Saudel quickly diminished to a tropical storm and then a depression as it moved into mainland China. New tropical storm “Bang Lang” will pass near Wake Is. Tropical “Etau” is no threat to land at this time.

We’ll be dry in West Michigan today and tomorrow (Sat.). I can’t rule out a shower or storm on Sunday. Scattered showers and t-storms are likely in the Rockies, the Upper Midwest and along the East Coast.

No storms for Michigan today. There are two areas (in dark green) where there is a level 1 severe risk later today.

This is the severe outlook for Saturday. There is one Marginal (level 1) risk area from northern Utah to the Dakotas.

Here’s storm reports from Thursday. There was tennis ball-sized hail near the Merritt Reservoir in Nebraska. A wind gust of 91 mph were recorded at Stapleton NE.

Have a spectacular day.

Here’s downtown Holland at sunrise Wednesday morning. You can see a school bus passing by. We now lost nearly 2 hours of daylight since the Summer Solstice on June 21. Then, the sun rose to the left of the clock tower in this picture. Temperatures lag the position of the sun by about one month…so highest sun on June 21 means our average highest temperatures occur around July 21.

The sun now rises at 7:01 am an sets at 8:25 pm, giving us 13 hours and 24 minutes of daylight. For August 1-25, the temperatures in Grand Rapids was exactly average. The average high/low is now 80/60, down 3 degrees since July.

The record high temperature for today is 95 set in 1948 and again in 1953. The record low temperature for today in Gr. Rapids is 42 set in 1915.

I had only a couple of sprinkles at my house yesterday. North and northwest of me, there was some significant rain with Muskegon topping the list. While the chance of rain is not zero, it’s pretty low today through Sunday (20%).

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Thursday - no thunderstorms in Micihgan, but strong storms are likely in the East and in the High Plains. On the map above, yellow is a level 2 Slight Risk, dark green is a level one Marginal Risk and light green is chance of a non-severe thunderstorm.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Friday - no storms in Michigan. We have Marginal Risks in the northern Plains and from Virginia to northern Georgia.

High temperatures today should be very close to average, up to near 80 in inland areas and low-mid 70s near Lake Michigan. Look for readings in the mid 60s to low 70s in Upper Michigan.

Similar temperatures again on Friday, near 80 inland and low-mid 70s at Lake Michigan.

The most likely time for our next thunderstorm is next Monday evening/night. Humidity levels will be comfortable over the next several days, then start to creep up early next week. I’ve got the chance of rain at 30% for Saturday night and I may have to raise Sunday to 30%.

We’ll see a bright, full moon the next several nights. The full moon of August is called the Sturgeon Moon. Remember, we have a lunar eclipse Thursday night, peaking at 12:12 am early Friday AM (EDT). The moon will be dimmer and it will take on a reddish color as it passes through the Earth’s shadow. This is about a 95% eclipse, so not a total eclipse.

The latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows a warm ridge over the eastern and southern U.S. with a cool trough in the Pacific northwest and also over much of Alaska.

Here’s the 8-14 day rainfall outlook for Sept. 3-9. The entire Great Lakes is in the Near Normal category with rainier than average weather in the West, Alaska and New England.

Let’s turn to the tropics. The next month is the peak of hurricane season and the Atlantic sector remains unusually quiet. There is one system that has as of now a 40-50% chance of developing into a tropical storm. You may have heard that the next name on the list is “Dolly”. The lists of hurricane names are determined years in advance, so it’s just a coincidence that tropical storm “Dolly” happens to occur at roughly the same time as the passing of Dolly Parton.

The eastern Pacific remains active. Way in the upper left is tropical storm “Lala” that hit Hawaii, As I type this Thursday AM, there are still 1,692 customers without power in Hawaii - mostly on the big island. Lala should fade away today.

Same story with Tropical Depression Iselle. Forget the yellow hatched area southwest of Hawaii. The other two Xs will likely develop into tropical storms. They are too far West to affect Mexico, but Hawaii should keep up with the track of these two areas.

Here’s a satellite pic. of the western Pacific. Tropical depressions 20@ and 21W are not of much concern right now (worth tracking, though, for sure). That leaves us with Typhoon “Saudel”.

Hurricane Saudel will likely diminish to a Tropical Storm as it moves into mainland China south of Shanghai. Heavy showers and some local flooding is expected.

Not much change in the overnight severe weather update from the Storm Prediction Center. There is a Slight Risk (level 2) in yellow on the map above from eastern Illinois across the northern half of Indiana and northwest Ohio and up into Lower Michigan, south of a line from Gary, IN to Lansing MI to Toledo OH.

SPC says: “Damaging winds and large hail could accompany the
strongest storms. If any supercells can be sustained, then some
tornado potential cannot be ruled out, especially from northern IN
into parts of lower Michigan.

The Tornado Forecast Map shows a 5% risk of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point across northern Indiana and a small portion of Lower Michigan, essentially south of a line from New Buffalo to Lansing to Hillsdale.

Here’s the severe wind map for today. The yellow is a 15% chance of a severe wind report within 25 miles of a given point. The brown is a 5% chance. Again the most likely spot for isolated strong wind is essentially along and south of I-94.

I’ll update this thread later today.

There is a Slight Risk (level 2) of a severe thunderstorm or tornado along and south of I-94 Wednesday PM/evening. That’s in the yellow color on the map above. The rest of Lower Michigan is in the Marginal or level 1 Risk Area.

Here’s the tornado risk map. It’s a 5% risk of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point for areas along and south of I-94 and a 2% risk for much of the rest of Lower Michigan

SPC says: “Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, however, some tornado threat may also exist. Low-level hodographs are small, but do show modest directional shear. This low-level shear combined with a supercell storm mode may result in a tornado or two.

From the G.R. NWS: “On August 24, 2023, severe thunderstorms formed over western Lower Michigan during the evening hours in the midst of an extremely unstable environment that also featured dew point readings (a measure of atmospheric moisture) up to 80F, some of the highest we have seen over the last 60 years. These thunderstorms spawned two tornadoes in western Lower Michigan.

The first tornado touched down in west central Kent County from Alpine Township to Plainfield Township, rated a strong EF-1 on a scale of 0 to 5 (with 5 being the most intense).

The second tornado touched down in eastern Ingham County from Williamston to Webberville, before continuing on into Livingston County, and was rated an EF-2 in Ingham County before weakening to an EF-1 in Livingston County. This tornado moved down I-96 for a mile and a half and resulted in one fatality and 3 injuries

In addition to the tornadoes, the thunderstorms produced numerous areas of 60 to 70 mph wind gusts and very high amounts of lightning. The combination of the tornadoes, strong wind gusts, and continuous lightning wiped out power to around 460,000 customers statewide at the height of the event.”

Bill adds…I live in Alpine Township and estimated the wind at my house at 55 mph. I noted it seemed to me to be the strongest wind I’d seen here since the 1998 derecho. The sky was an eerie blue-gray color. Numerous limbs were down on my street.

Here’s a write-up on the Alpine/Plainfield tornado. I drove along the path of the storm and talked to people that were in the twister. I got a tour of the damage on the Brechting Farm just north of Six Mile Road. They operate a nice farm stand west of Alpine Ave. They had literally dozens of trees and limbs down.

This was a fast-moving tornado, traveling 10.7 miles in 11 minutes, moving at nearly 60 mph.

There were 5 other tornadoes in southeast Michigan and the 7 total tornadoes made it the most tornadoes Michigan had ever had in a single day in August.

I remember that night I couldn’t sleep and at first light of dawn, I was out checking out the tornado damage.

No storms today…we’ll see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the mid 70s. Our next chance of rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still no sign of any 90-degree days or any unusually cool weather as we move through late August.

Afternoon temperatures will be mainly in the low 70s today - upper 60s at Lake Michigan. The wind will be cool and brisk, from the northwest at 10-20 mph.

BTW, we’ve just had 3 consecutive days with a high temperature of 80° in Grand Rapids, followed by 3 consecutive days with a high temperature of 79°.

There is a Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisories in effect for today, for winds of 15-25 knots and waves up to 3-6 feet. The Beach Hazards Statement is also in effect for northwest Indiana and Cook County in Illinois (Chicago).

High temperatures will be a touch warmer on Monday, with afternoon readings in inland areas up to the mid 70s. Winds may continue to be a little brisk on Monday, west to northwest at 10-20 mph.

Here’s 3-day total rainfall. No big storm systems in the U.S., just areas of showers and storms, most not severe. Today, the chance of rain isn’t zero, but it’s only about 20%, so plan on a dry day, especially if you are near the lake. Monday and Tuesday look dry. So with three dry days in a row for most of us, the map above shows no measurable rain for Grand Rapids.

There was a waterspout on Stony Lake in Oceana Co. Saturday evening:

0716 PM     WATERSPOUT       2 W STONY LAKE          43.56N 86.53W  
08/22/2026                   LMZ848             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
Here            VIDEO CONFIRMATION. 

Here’s storm total rainfall from Saturday:

Here’s storm total rainfall for Saturday. I had just a trace, one little ol’ sprinkle, but heavy rain fell in the Lansing area. The dark blue on the map above is over 2”.

Here’s some more rainfall totals from Saturday.

Here’s what the moon will look like this evening…about 3/4 full.

Hey, we’ve got a lunar eclipse coming up early Fridary morning…it’s not a total eclipse, but it’s 96% and that’s pretty good…visible throughout the Western Hemisphere.

Tropical update: The odds of a tropical depression/storm forming off Africa are up to about 50/50 (orange color). If it does form it’ll likely move west, then northwest. Certainly something to watch, but it would be about a week away from reaching the U.S.

Here’s the eastern Pacific. Lala has been downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm. It will continue to weaken as it moves north into cooler water. Moke going to pass farther south of Hawaii than Lala. It’s also supposed to remain a tropical storm. So, while Hawaii should get a day or two with brisk winds and showers, it won’t be as significant as Lala. BTW, Lala hit Hawaii lasts weekend and a week later, they still have 6,633 customers without power on the Big Island.

Another tropical storm will likely form well west of Mexico. We’ll wait until it forms to determine a path, but it looks like it’ll miss land areas.

Here’s the path of Moke…again moving pretty much south of the Islands.

The western Pacific also remains rather active. The storm to watch here is Saudel, which is moving west-northwest.

The latest models show the storm turning more west southwest and coming closer to Taiwan, then going into mainly China. It should be a formidable hurricane for the next few days, then may weaken a bit as it approaches land later this week.

Also: Multiple aircraft moved by +75 mph winds in Italy.

Have a wonderful day!

Each Friday afternoon, the Climate Prediction Center issues a long-range forecast for weeks 3 to 4. So, the latest one is out today (Aug. 21) and covers the period from September 5 - 18.

In the western Great Lakes, we have an equal chance of above or below average temperatures. Most of the country is expected to have warmer than average temperatures, not surprising given the strong El Nino pattern we have right now.

This implies a ridge in the Rocky Mountains and a downstream weak trough over the western Great Lakes.

In September, the average high temperature for Grand Rapids is 74° and the average low temperature is 53°.

The week 3 - 4 rainfall outlook calls for an equal chance of above or below average. I’d probably side with the slightly below average forecast.

High Temperatures today (Sat.) will be mostly in the upper 70s in inland areas and low-mid 70s at Lake Michigan. Skies most of the time will be partly cloudy and winds will pick up from the northwest at 10-15 or 10-20 mph. So, it may be a touch on the breezy side, especially near the lake in the PM.

There’s a Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisories for the lakeshore. Winds should pick up from the northwest at 10-20 knots today and 15-25 knots tomorrow. A knot is roughly 1.15 mph. The Beach Hazards statement runs to Manistee on the north and around the lake to Porter Co. Indiana on the south

Keep in mind that the flag color at the beaches may change during the day. A green flag in the relatively calm early morning can change to red as winds pick up during the midday.

Here’s high temperatures for Sunday…low-mid 70s inland and near 70 at the lakeshore. Temperatures may hold in the mid-upper 60s in northern Lower Michigan and in Upper Michigan.

We’re up to about a 3/4 moon that will be out in the evening. Venus is the bright star to the west at sunset.

Here’s storm reports from Friday. There were two mall, rather insignificant tornadoes, one in Arizona and one southwest of Chicago at the town of Sublette. Most of the wind damage were in the Southeast from east Taxas to North Carolina. Check out the continuous lightning in Tampa FL. Continuous fast-motion lightning.

As of Saturday AM (8/22), we still have over 29,000 customers without power in Lake Co. Indiana, 11 days after the derecho.

And there are 10,531 customers without power in Hawaii after Hurricane Lala. 9,084 of those customers are on the Big Island of Hawaii.

There is a small chance of a non-severe thunderstorm in West Michigan today, but most areas probably won’t see that. There is a Marginal or level 1 risk in Southeast Michigan over by Detroit, but the better chance will be down in Ohio.

We should stay dry on Sunday with just a slight chance of a non-severe storm in Southeast Michigan Sunday PM.

This is the tropical storm/hurricane forecast from the National Hurricane Center. The yellow area west of Africa is the one most likely to develop into a tropical storm and move west. It would stand a good chance of turning north before being a significant to the U.S., but it bears watching. I don’t think anything comes of the other two shaded areas.

The eastern Pacific sector remains active. Hurricane Lala, the one that hit Hawaii, is moving north toward cooler waters, where it will fade away. We now have tropical storm Moke. That’s headed in the general direction of Hawaii, though it is expected to be slightly weaker and take a slightly more southerly route. Hawaii will get some rain and a couple of windy days, but outside of some local flooding on the windward side of the mountains, Moke will have as an impact like Lala. There is another storm forming to the east (red X) but it should stay east of Hawaii and west of Mexico

Here’s the forecast path of Moke. The hurricane center keeps the storm at Tropical Storm status.

The western Pacific is also rather active. We continue to monitor Typhoon Saudel.

Saudel looks like it’ll go south of Japan, north of Taiwan and into Mainland China near or just south of Shanghai.

Hope you have a happy weekend. Thanks for reading my weather updates,

The Climate Prediction Center has released their seasonal forecast for the fall season. There’s a lot of “warmer than average” on this forecast map, not surprising considering the El Nino going on now, which should continue through the winter. West Michigan is in the “Equal Chances” and “Leaning Above” categories. This would imply a little troughiness (is that a word?) over the Ohio Valley.

Probably not a lot of early season snowfall like we had last year. Last year, Grand Rapids had our first inch of snowfall on Nov. 9. We ended the month of November with 8.3” of snow on the 29th/30th. On the morning of Nov. 30th, Grand Rapids had 8” of snow on the ground.

Here’s the precipitation forecast for Sept. - Nov. Michigan is in the “below average” category. This would imply not only below average rain/snow, but with warmer than average temperatures, a higher percentage of the precipitation might be rain instead of snow.

I’ve mentioned before that during the strong El Nino winter of 1982-83, we had only 36” of snow and the snowiest day of the winter was March 21 - the first day of spring.

Now, let’s take a moment and talk tropical weather. There will be several tropical storms developing in the next week.

This map from the National Hurricane Center shows the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf. Two areas are highlighted. Both had only a 10-20% chance of developing and both are far from the U.S.

However, many of our computer models have a tropical storm developing in the MDR (main development region - off the coast of Africa) in the next 7 to 10 days. These storms are sometimes referred to as “Cape Verde Storms”. They tend sometimes to turn northwest and then north before they reach the Caribbean or U.S. So, don’t get too excited about a potential storm just yet. El Ninos often feature a below average number of Atlantic storms.

Another characteristic of a strong El Nino is an active Pacific Sector and that has been the care. First, Lala (that hit Hawaii) is still a hurricane. However, it’s moving north toward cooler water, where it will meet its demise.

BTW, there are still 11,726 customers without power in Hawaii as of 6 am Friday (21st). Most of them (11,137 are on the big island of Hawaii.

Next, we have tropical depression TWO-C. This will become tropical storm “Moke” and head northwest toward Hawaii. I think that Moke’s path may be slightly farther south than than the path of Lala and it may be slightly less intense. Let’s hope that’s right.

The red “X” is going to become another tropical storm and the orange X may become a tropical storm. Both of these systems are far enough west that they shouldn’t pose a threat to mainland Mexico.

In the western Pacific, we have tropical storm “Saudel”, which will become a significant typhoon.

Here’s the projected path of Saudel…moving west northwest south of Japan and heading toward Shanghai and mainland China.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Friday (21st). There’s a level 2, Slight Risk area across Lake Michigan is southeast Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Storms will form out by the Mississippi River and move east to Lake Michigan. Isolated strong wind is expected in the strongest storms. The storms are expected to weaken a bit before moving into West Michigan. SPC has a level 1 Marginal Risk in the lakeshore counties, but just a General (not severe) Outlook east of US 131.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Area for Saturday…the best chance of a storm will be in southeast Michigan. Any activity in West Michigan is likely to be non-severe and the vast majority of the day should be dry.

Here’s severe storm reports from Thursday. There were two small tornadoes. The one in Delaware was just the 2nd tornado they’ve had this year. The other twister was near Mobile AL - no injuries and relatively minor damage. There was an 83 mph gust at Oakley KS an an 80 mph gust at Ludell KS.

Here’s 3-day total rainfall. The heaviest rain will be along the East Coast from N to Boston. Rainfall will be heavier in eastern Wisconsin than in West Michigan.

Rainfall in West Michigan will be quite spotty, with some areas getting half an inch and others 1/10th of an inch.

By the way, 10 days after the derecho hit northwest Indiana, they still (as of 6 am Fri.) have 46,672 customers without power in Indiana. Most of them are in Lake County (Gary, Hammond, Munster), where 39.074 customers do not have power. Next door Porter Co. has 6,195 customers without power.

Here’s high temperatures for today (Fri.). We’ll be near 80 at mid-afternoon - a touch more humid than yesterday. A southwest wind will keep it a touch cooler near Lake Michigan.

BTW - high temperatures in the first 3 weeks of August have been quite consistent, between 77 and 86…we may get through August without a 90-degree day.

Here’s high temperatures for Saturday…just a bit cooler with mid 70’s inland and low 70s at Lake Michigan. Highs in the mid-upper 70s are likely on Sunday with lots of 70s in the afternoon next week.

The moon is up to about 2/3rds full now and we continue to watch the planet Venus, shining brightly in the west during the evening. Venus will reach maximum brightness on Sept. 18. I’ve got it on my calendar.

Have a great Friday and an awesome weekend.

The days are getting shorter. Sunrise today is at 6:54 am with sunset at 8:36 pm. We’re losing 2 minutes and 40 seconds of daylight each day. The pic. above from GLERL is sunset at Alpena MI. At the Summer Solstice back on June 21, the sun set to the right of St. Anne’s Church (with the twin steeples)

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Thursday (Aug. 20). Lower Michigan will be dry today. There is a level 2 Slight Risk from NW Wisconsin to N Kansas and also from NE North Carolina to New Jersey. There will probably also be some isolated strong wind gusts in Arizona. Yesterday the Phoenix AZ airport had a gust to 68 mph.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Friday. There’s a level 2 Slight Risk (in yellow on the map above) for much of Nebraska and far northern Kansas. Michigan has a chance of a non-severe thunderstorm in PM and overnight.

Here’s high temperatures for today. Grand Rapids has had 3 consecutive days now with a high temperature of 80 and we’re forecast to be there again today with just slightly cooler afternoon temperatures near Lake Michigan. The relative humidity will be rather low today, with readings this PM dipping below 50%.

And for Friday…back to near 80 in the PM. Comfortable 70s in the U.P.

Here’s severe weather reports from Wednesday. There were 3 tornadoes (not 4 as the graphic shows above…one tornado was counted twice. Hailstones up to 3” in diameter fell at Thurman, Colorado with 82 mph wind gusts at Greeley, Nebraska.

This map shows the percent chance of measurable rain on Saturday with the highest chance over toward the Thumb area and a much smaller chance of rain at Lake Michigan.

We’ll see a half moon in the sky this evening. We’re still a week from the next full moon, which comes on August 28 in the Eastern Time Zone and on August 27 in the Central, Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.

Still no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic over rhe next week. Beyond that period, I think the Atlantic will start to wake up.

It’s a different story in the eastern Pacific. We had Lala now well west of Hawaii and moving north. It will dissipate as it moves into cooler water. The next red “X” should become a tropical storm soon and that one should move toward Hawaii. There are still 18,287 customers without power in Hawaii as of Thursday morning.

Also, there are still 57,806 customers without power in Indiana, most of them from the derecho that hit northwest Indiana 9 days ago. That includes 28% of Lake County (Gary/Hammond).

I should mention that the tropical activity in the eastern Pacific should not bother the mainland of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Saudel has formed. It will reach hurricane strength and continue moving west-northwest toward the islands of southern Japan.

Have an awesome day!

Here’s Storm Total Rainfall from last night from the NEXRAD88-D radar in Grand Rapids. Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Kalamazoo and Holland are labeled. That blue band just south (below) of Muskegon shows an estimated 3-4” of rainfall.

Here’s some rainfall amounts from last night. The Muskegon Airport reported 2.75”. Over 2” fell at a rain gauge in Alpine Township. Heavier totals were reported in Sparta, Comstock Park and Conklin. There was a pretty significant difference over relatively short distances. Muskegon, Alpine, Sparta, Comstock Park and Conklin all have over an inch of rain in less than an hour.

These “storms” looked impressive on radar (heavy rain) and I watched a well-defined shelf cloud pass overhead, but there was very little lightning.

No thunderstorms for Michigan today. OK, I’d give a 10% chance south of a line from Holland to the Thumb Area. More storms for Missouri, W KY and TN, and far S.Illinois.

BTW, as of early Wed. (8/19), there are still 57,977 customers without power in Indiana. Most of them are from the derecho that devastated northwest Indiana eight days ago. Lake County (Gary/Hammond/Munster) still has 36% of the county without power with 8% in Porter County.

For Thursday, SPC has a Marginal Risk Ara from Minnesota to Nebraska and a smaller outlined area in the mid-Atlantic. Again the threat is isolated strong thunderstorm straight-lines.

Here’s severe storm reports from Tuesday. There were a few trees down near Traverse City at Interlachen and Bendon.

It should be a nice day in West Michigan..mostly sunny to partly cloudy with afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s (low 70s in the U.P.)

About the same on Thursday, partly to mostly sunny with afternoon high temperatures around 80, right about average for this time of year.

Looks like our next decent chance of rain will be Friday night/Saturday (not an all day rain).

We’ll have about a 43% full moon this evening…somewhere between a “thick crescent” and a half moon. Venus is still shining brightly, visible to the west not too many minutes after sunset.

The tropical Atlantic remains unusually quiet…no hurricanes, no tropical storms…not even a decent tropical depression. We continue to get Saharan dust coming off Africa and continuing with the east winds to Florida and the Caribbean.

While next week looks quiet, I suspect we’ll get a tropical storm in the Atlantic before the month is over. The ACE Index, a measure of the number and strength of hurricanes in each world basin, is only at 3 right now. I think that’s about the lowest number I’ve seen in the Atlantic this late in the hurricane season. We’re now 80 days into the Atlantic hurricane season.As

It’s a different story in the eastern Pacific. There’s Lala west of Hawaii. It’s turning to the north and head into cooler water and dissipate. As of Wed. AM (19th), there are still 34,400 customers without power in Hawaii. One disadvantage is that they can’t call in crews from other states to help with the restoration.

There are two other tropical storms forming (red hatched areas. The one on the left may get close enough to Hawaii to cause some trouble. I think the next tropical storm in the central Pacific will be called “Moke”. In the eastern Pacific it’s “Iselle”.

There’s a new tropical depression near Guam. That will intensify into a typhoon and probably a “super typhoon”. We’ll be tracking that for the next week.

Also - quite the heat dome over Oklahoma and Texas, where temperatures will again top 100 degrees many days during the next week.

Here’s a look at global sea surface temperature anomaly. That means this map shows where surface water temperatures are warmer than average (yellow, orange, red and maroon) and cooler than average (shades of blue).

You can sure see the El Nino…the warmer than average water temeratures along the Equator west of South America. The water warms up when wind speeds are lower and the surface water can sit in the tropical sun and warm up. When we have La Nina, the wind is stronger and stirs up colder warmer from below the surface.

More often than not, a strong El Nino produces this kind of winter pattern…with cool, cloudier and wetter weather across the South. It also produces an occasional winter tornado over Florida. The northern U.S. is warmer than average with less snow than average…it’s warmer, so there is less lake-effect snow and more storms bringing rain or a mix instead of snow.

A classic El Nino occurred during the winter of 1982-83. That winter we had five days in December that were in the 60s in Grand Rapids, including a 65-degree afternoon on Christmas Day. We had only 36” of snowfall that winter in Grand Rapids and the snowiest day of the winter was the first day of spring, March 21. There were a lot of cloudy, dull days with high temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Here’s 3-day total forecast rainfall. They continue to get thunderstorms and local flooding from Missouri to Virginia and it continues to be dry over much of the West.

Rainfall in Michigan should be spotty. Our rain could come anytime from mid/late afternoon Tuesday into early Wednesday. This model has some areas getting 1/10th inch to over 1/2 inch and again that’ll be mainly Tuesday night.

West Michigan has been added to the (dark green) level 1 Marginal Risk Area for later today and tonight. SPC says: “Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening…will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts (of strong wind).”

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Wednesday PM/night. It does not include West Michigan.

Here’s storm reports from Monday. Once again…no tornadoes in the U.S., but a good number of severe wind reports. The strongest storm winds were in S. Dakota, where Ardmore had a gust to 97 mph and Rocky Ford a gust to 92 mph.

Here’s the 8-14 Day Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the last week of August. They are expecting near average temperatures in the western Great Lakes. That would give us average high temperatures in the upper 70s.

Rainfall is expected to be below average in Michigan.

A nice, crescent moon will be visible this evening (if the clouds and showers don’t get here first). It’s about 26% full. Also look for the bright planet to west in the evening. Outside of the sun and moon, it’s the brightest thing in the sky.

Here’s a satellite picture from Monday afternoon. From Benzie Co. to Indiana, you can see it was clear right by Lake Michigan and partly cloudy in inland areas, where it was a few degrees warmer and differential heating produced rising columns of air the developed the cumulus clouds.

Around 2:30 pm, this mighty ship came through the Grand Haven Channel. BTW, note it’s clear above and to the right over the lake...and you can see the clouds to the left over the land.

This pic. taken about 20 minutes later shows the ship in the distance by the sailboat heading south. Thanks to the city of Holland for letting me repost pics. from their webcams.

Here’s Hawaii radar as of 2 am EDT Monday. Hurricane Lala is west of he islands and moving away, leaving just a scattering of showers and an isolated couple of thunderstorms, mostly on the windward side of the islands.

Lala is now a tropical storm. It will move west, then northwest and north, eventually fading away as it moves into cooler waters north of 30 deg. latitude.

Rainfall has been extraordinary, producing significant flooding. I can’t imaging getting 42” of snow, much less 42” of rain.

Here’s some of the fastest wind gusts from Lala. The few buildings on the summit of Mauna Kea have to be built to withstand those gusts.

As of 2 am Monday EDT, there were still 161,135 customers without power statewide. That included 47% of the Big Island, 35% of Honolulu County and 10% of Maui County.

BTW they are working to restore power in northwest Indiana after the derecho that produced 95-100 mph winds last Tuesday. As of 2 am Monday, 43% of Lake County IN was still without power and 13% of Porter County.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for today (Mon. Aug. 17). First of all, no thunderstorms today/tonight in Lower Michigan and most all of the Great Lakes. A level 2 Slight Risk covers Nebraska to southwest Minnesota and also eastern Tennessee and North Carolina.

The level 2 Slight Risk Area for Tuesday/Tuesday night is for eastern Nebraska, northern Kansas, northern Missouri and much of Iowa. The level 1 or Marginal Outlook runs from eastern Wyoming east to Lake Michigan. I think most all of Tuesday will be dry, with a chance of a thunderstorm late in the day. The best chance of a storm will likely come Tuesday night.

Here’s storm reports from Sunday. That’s quite a “blue blob” in eastern Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania and West Virginia. There were 310 reports of wind damage. Again, lots of trees and power lines down due to strong thunderstorm winds. Once again, there were no tornadoes.

Here’s 2 day total rainfall. Monday/Tuesday look dry in West Michigan. We’ll have a better chance of rain Tuesday evening/night into early Wednesday. Much of the rain will be along the Ohio River and along the East Coast.

Here’s rainfall in the past week, with over a foot of rain in east central Indiana.

Here’s high temperatures today - upper 70s to low 80s inland and low-mid 70s near Lake Michigan…mid-upper 70s in the U.P.

Tuesday, low 80s inland and mid 70s at Lake Michigan.

The 8-14 day temperature forecast shows above average temperatures for much of the country, though I don’t see any extended 90-degree heat waves.

The 8-14 day rainfall outlook shows below average rainfall for the western Great Lakes.

Like last night, look for a crescent moon in the west this evening with the bright planet Venus a bit lower in the sky to the west.

Here’s a look at snow and ice cover on Sunday, August 16th. Lots of ice in the Arctic and in Greenland. There’s in the higher mountains from southern Alaska down through British Columbia. Hudson Bay is ice free and the polar bears are onshore up by Churchill on the west coast of the Bay.

At 11 pm Alaska time, the temperature at the Barrow Airport was 48° with thick fog. Deadhorse was 45°, Fairbanks was mostly cloudy and 62° and Anchorage was cloudy and 58°.

Also: Hail 1-2 feet deep in CO. Heavy rain in Africa.

There are approximately 90,000 customers without power in Hawaii in the wake of Hurricane Lala as of 2 am Sunday. That includes 70% of the Big Island and 22% of Maui County. There are two big, tall mountains on the Big Island. Mauna Kea is the taller of the two. Its peak is 13,803 feet above sea level, making it the highest point in Hawaii and the island with the second highest high point, behind New Guinea.

Here’s radar, showing a decent eye. The storm is dumping huge amounts of rain. The highest totals I’ve seen so far: 24.68” at Laupahoehoe and 22.65” at Nahuku. Hilo on the east coast of the Big Island is up to 6.6” and they are still reporting heavy rain.

The center (eye) of Lala passed about 30 miles south of the Big Island late Saturday afternoon (local time). Ths storm is expected to weaken just a bit to tropical storm status as itg passes a bit farther south of the smaller islands.

Here’s some peak gusts on the Big Island. Hilo’s peak gust looks like 56 mph. Waves have been forecast to be as high as 30 feet.

The storm has downed hundreds of trees and power lines and caused some building damage, mainly to roofs. There are numerous closed roads due to downed trees and flooding and at least one significant landslide has occurred on the Big Island.

Outside of Lala, the rest of the world is unusually quiet…no other hurricanes, tropical storms or significant tropical depressions.

There is one system being watched in the Western Pacific, but 92W doesn’t look like much on the satellite pic.

Closer to home…most all of Lower Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan is in the General (not severe) thunderstorm outlook for today. There are two level 2 Severe Weather Threat Areas outlined. One mostly in eastern Colorado and the other from Southern Illinois east to Virginia.

SPC says no thunderstorms in Lower Michigan on Monday. The Slight Risk areas are from Nebraska to southwest Minnesota and from eastern Tennessee into western and central North Carolina.

It’s been fairly calm of late. The average wind speed over the last 7 days has been just 5.2 mph.

Here’s the projected path of Tropical Storm “Lala”. It may briefly become a low-end hurricane as it moves into the Big Island Friday night or early Saturday. It looks like the eye or center of the storm will pass just south of the high mountains on the Big Island.

Low temperatures at the summits of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea will be around 40, so no snow is expected. This will be all rain, evening on the mountain peaks.

Extremely heavy rain is likely to cause significant flooding. The NWS says: “LALA WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE STATE, ESPECIALLY BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE/WINDWARD AREAS OF BIG ISLAND, WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER UPSLOPE/WINDWARD AREAS OF MAUI. HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, UP TO 25 INCHES ON BIG ISLAND AND UP TO 15 INCHES ON MAUI.”

Here’s a look at the wind forecast. The red color on the south end of the Big Island is 70-80 mph (see key at the bottom of the graphic). Here’s the actual wind forecast from the Honolulu NWS: “NORTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 30 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

In the Atlantic Ocean, there are two areas of potential Tropical Depression/Storm formation. Both are given a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days.

So far, we’ve had 3 named storms in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf. “Arthur” was a minimal tropical storm on June 17-18, but the storm did produce heavy rain and significant flooding as it came onshore near Galveston, Texas.

Bertha (see satellite pic. above from NASA Worldview) managed to generate winds up to 60 mph and it also produced heavy rain and flooding along the Gulf.

Christobal (August 9) grew to be a minimal tropical storm for parts of two days (August 12-13) in the central Atlantic.

The next named storm will be named “Dolly”. The mid-point of the hurricane season in the Atlantic is September 10.

Nothing much to write about in the western Pacific. “Peilou” is essentially done and nothing much will come from minimal Tropical Storm '“Nangka”.

Here’s storm reports from Thursday…no tornadoes, but another 204 wind damage reports. Winds hit 82 mph near Dugway UT and 77 mph at both Hutchinson and Great Bend KS…and there was more storms, wind damage and flooding from eastern IA across Illinois and into Indiana.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for this Friday. The level 2 Slight Risk covers central and southern Iowa, far northern Missouri and western Illinois. Surrounding that there’s a level 1 Marginal Risk from Colorado to the East Coast.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Saturday. The level 2 Slight Risk comes up into Michigan, generally along and south of I-94 with the Marginal Outlook up to Grand Rapids. Again, wind is the biggest threat.

There was a 103 mph gust in Connecticut, one of the fastest thunderstorm wind gusts they have ever recorded in the state. Graph of wind gust.

0130 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW NEW HAVEN AIRPORT 41.25N 72.90W  
08/13/2026  M103 MPH         NEW HAVEN          CT   MESONET            
  
            MESONET SITE XLTH AT LIGHTHOUSE POINT   
            MEASURED A 103 MPH WIND GUST.   
  
0126 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S NEW HAVEN AIRPORT   41.24N 72.89W  
08/13/2026  M97 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   MESONET            
  
            MESONET SITE AT MORGAN POINT MEASURED A 97   
            MPH WIND GUST.

Derechos (pronounced like “deh-REY-chos”) are fast-moving bands of thunderstorms with destructive winds. The winds can be as strong as those found in hurricanes or even tornadoes! Unlike hurricanes and tornadoes, these winds follow straight lines.

A downburst is a type of wind created by sinking cold air. Credit: NOAA/JPL-Caltech

The winds of a derecho are at least 58 miles per hour and have been recorded as fast as 130 miles per hour (which by the way was in the famous 1998 derecho that moved through West Michigan. That produced a measured gust to 128 mph in Wisconsin and estimated gusts to 130 mph in Grand Haven, Spring Lake and Walker, Michigan.

Instead of spiraling like a tornado or hurricane, the winds of a derecho move in straight lines. That’s where the storm gets its name; the word derecho means “straight ahead” in Spanish.

This graphic is from the Storm Prediction Center. It shows 3 radar images and some of the severe weather reports. The black squares are wind gusts of 75 mph or greater and as of 3 am Wednesday, there were 21 of those. The blue dots are wind gusts measured from 58-74 mph.

Preliminary figures show the derecho was at least 331 miles long and affected 16,779 square miles. It was active from 8:07 am until at least 1:25 pm EDT. The northern edge of the damage appeared to be close to I-80 in northern Indiana and the northern edge of any rain from this system got about as southern Kent County (a trace at the Ford Airport in Grand Rapids). Kalamazoo had 0.11” of rain and a peak gust of just 26 mph. Benton Harbor had 0.35” of rain with a peak gust of 39 mph. Michigan City, Indiana had a peak gust of 74 mph and the highest wind gust was 99 mph at the airport in Gary, Indiana.

Here’s peak wind gusts from Monday’s derecho. Gary is in Lake Co. Indiana and as of 2:30 am Wed., 95% of Lake Co. IN was still without power.

Here’s some more peak wind gusts. Here’s video of a car being blown off the highway.

The map above is as of 5 am Wed. and the numbers are still going up. 831 severe reports, 719 reports of wind damage with 48 of them winds over 75 mph…108 severe hail reports with half of those bigger than golf balls.

Severe thunderstorms also hit the Dakotas, where an incredible 111 mph gust occurred near Newell SD. Also there was a very rare 89 mph gust from a thunderstorm in Yermo, California. There were spotty showers and thunderstorms in the Desert Southwest. Phoenix AZ had 0.16” of rain. Also a report from a storm on Monday:

TSTM WIND DAMAGE      15 E SENTINEL AZ           32.91N 112.97W  
08/10/2026            MARICOPA COUNTY           AZ   EMERGENCY MANAGER    
  
            ***DELAYED REPORT*** TRAIN DERAILMENT WITH   
            55 DERAILED CARS, MOST OF WHICH HAD   
            DOUBLE-STACKED SHIPPING CRATES BLOWN   
            OVER/OFF THE CARS. NO INJURIES. TIMING BASED   
            ON NEARBY SEVERE WIND MEASUREMENTS.   

There were a total of 880, 443 customers without power in the U.S. at 2:30 am EDT - down from over a million in the early PM. Early Wed. AM, there were 317,896 customers without power in Indiana, 220,131 in Ohio, 167,097 in Illinois, 60,856 in Kentucky, 21,780 in Tennessee and 20,136 in West Virginia.

So far, there has been one reported fatality when a tree fell on a house in Jennings Co. Indiana. Three EF1 tornadoes have been confirmed in southern Cook and Will Counties, just south of Chicago. There were numerous trees down and some building damage, but no serious injuries. Sixteen people were injured by a lightning strike at an Ohio prison. Marian High School in Chicago Heights sustained significant damage.

In 2026, there have been more tornadoes in Illinois than in any other state.

Here’s the severe outlook for this Wednesday. There’s a Marginal Risk for parts of Central and Eastern Michigan and a General (not severe) thunderstorm risk for the rest of Lower Michigan (light green color.

Severe storms are likely today across IL, IN, OH, KY. The question is…how far north do the storms get. There is a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area from northeast IL across much of IN into southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky. That’s in orange on the map above. The Enhanced Outlook is surrounded by a level 2 Slight Risk Area that comes up into Michigan to a line from around South Haven to Hillsdale. The level 1 Marginal Risk comes north to around I-96. So, the greater threat of severe weather will be in the southwest corner of the Lower Peninsula.

This is an experimental Precipitation probability map. It gives a percent chance of measurable rain. That’s just 17% in Ludington and 25% at Big Rapids. It’s around 50% for Grand Rapids and 76% for Kalamazoo. South Bend gets a very high 94% chance of an afternoon storm.

The main threat will be thunderstorm straight-line winds. The red area on the map above is a 30% chance of a severe wind report within 25 miles of a given point. SPC writes: “if a well organized MCS is maintained from IA southeast into the OH Valley, a swath of damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will be possible.

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map for Wednesday. Central Lower Michigan is in the level one Marginal Outlook with the rest of the state in the General Thunderstorm Outlook (not severe).

That’s a large percentage of the contiguous U.S. with a chance of a thunderstorm (severe or not) today.

Here’s storm reports from Monday - another big severe weather day with over 500 severe reports. There were 3 small inconsequential tornadoes (one in Arizona). Look at the wind damage reports from Ohio to the Atlantic. There was only one injury (tree fell on a camper) but there were literally thousands of trees, power lines and limbs downed by the storms.

While it may turn a touch cooler over the weekend (highs in the upper 70s), there’s no sign of an early fall. The U.S. will continue to be a little warmer than average into the last week of August.

Rainfall for the week of August 18-24 is expected to be near average in Michigan.

The hurricane season is off to a slow start (that’s good), but that is expected to change. This is the Atlantic hurricane forecast for the next week. I suspect that development of a tropical storm is unlikely in the yellow areas (10% chance). However, a developing system where the orange “X” is located has about a 50% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression. It’s moving a bit north of due west.

El Nino patterns like we are in now generally have lower than average numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.

Here’s the eastern Pacific…3 storms to track. Forget the yellow one on the right. The orange X in the middle has about a 50% chance of development - but - it’s no threat to anything…if it would make it to tropical storm status, it’ll drift northwest and die out as it encounters cooler water.

The red “X” has the best chance of development - and - a forecast northwest movement would take it close to Hawaii.

Here’s the western Pacific satellite pic. Another sunny day across Australia. Typhoon Dolphin moved into mainland China and dissipated. Tropical storm “Peilou” will fade away in a couple of days, as will T.D. 15W. Tropical Storm Chan-Hom will move into Japan north of Tokyo as a minimum tropical storm or a tropical depression. That’s likely to give them a windy, rainy day, but cause very little damage.

I don’t anticipate posting Tuesday PM as I hope to go to the Whitecaps game. I’m still hope the rain will either miss LMCU field and go barely south - or if we catch a shower or storm, it’ll end by evening.

Enjoy your day!