Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army continues to turn back the junta’s thrusts in southern Shweku Township. The regime sent a resupply flotilla of 5 boats up the Irrawaddy River from Mandalay toward Banmaw city, but the Kachin attacked it with kamikaze drones on Aug. 24, burning and destroying 2 boats and killing an undetermined number of troops on board. Drone views show the moments of the explosions.

The next day on land, the junta sent about 200 troops northward from Htee Chaing Township in Sagaing Region to secure the banks to protect the flotilla, but they also became targets. The Kachin drone-bombed them, causing them to run in panic. They are now surrounded by the Kachin.

Fifteen other boats set out northward from Mandalay on Aug. 21, and were drone-bombed by the Kachin in Thabeitjin Township on Aug. 23, leading to the destruction of a boat. The others have reached Shweku, but when they attempted to continue upstream to Banmaw city, the Kachin army drone-bombed them and heavily damaged the leading warship on Aug. 29, at which point the whole convoy turned back to Shweku.

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Starting on Aug. 27 the junta has been dropping internationally banned cluster bombs in villages along the Irrawaddy River banks in Shweku Township to try to protect the supply flotilla. (m.CDM Radio, Maung News 8/25, The 74 Media 8/27, Maung News 8/29, People’s Spring 8/29)

Further north, the Kachin intercepted a junta convoy of 6 trucks moving from the state capital Myitkyina into Hpakant Township on Aug 25, destroying 2 of the trucks, killing at least 10 troops, and wounding a similar number. The junta continues to send out troops to try to retake areas now under Kachin army control. (The 74 Media 8/27)

Kawthoolei----------------------

Junta forces continue to slog northward in Mutraw District, trying to eventually reach Papun town and the isolated battalions under siege by the Karen army. They have reached a village called Pa Lone (Burmese name) near K’Ter Ti, but have been unable to advance any further. Karen army counter-attacks at Wa Du have caused around 15 casualties. The junta is carrying out terrorist airstrikes on nearby civilian villages and has killed several residents and destroyed homes. (People’s Spring 8/25)

A Chinese-owned company has been illegally mining and polluting rivers in junta-occupied Kanpauk village of Ler Doh Soh Township (Ye Phyu) of Mergui-Tavoy District since 2008. Now it is planning an expansion, importing over 100 Chinese nationals and preparing to dispossess more local villagers of their land. The Karen army and PDFs are warning the company to stop its illegal operation, without specifying consequences. (Maung News 8/24)

Also in Mergui-Tavoy District, a group of PDFs intercepted a junta column that was entering the so-called Dawei Special Economic Zone north of Tavoy city on Aug. 29. They captured some weapons and say they killed about 15 troops. (Mizzima 8/29) Both Russia and Thailand have said they will help the junta to develop the Dawei SEZ, but so far nothing has happened and the area remains a battleground between resistance and junta forces.

Nearby in K’Ser Doh Township (Thayetchaung), junta forces from Tavoy city have been invading villages in an attempt to control the National Highway No. 8. They have burned homes, kidnapped and tortured residents, stolen vehicles and other property, and displaced thousands of people. Clashes are taking place as local PDFs fight the invaders. (Khit Thit Media 8/29)

Thai authorities, who are constantly rounding up undocumented Burma immigrants, arrested 26 Kawthoolei citizens in Pechaburi Province on Aug. 10. Normally those would be deported and handed over to the junta at the Myawaddy or Kawthaung border crossings, after which any young males in the group would be forced into the junta military, and others could be subject to ransom and abuse in custody. After a campaign by the Human Rights Watch group, however, Thai police instead transferred those detainees to Kawthoolei government custody at the Htee Khee border crossing on Aug. 19. Htee Khee is under Kawthoolei control. (Mizzima 8/22) The detainees are ethnic Karen and were apprehended in a majority Karen area of Thailand, so they could be relatives of the locals. Historic Kawthoolei was divided by the placement of the Thai-Burma border during British colonial occupation of Burma, making some Karen foreigners in their own homeland.

Also along the Kawthoolei-Thailand border, police from both countries jointly seized a shipment of illegally-harvested timber that was being floated down the Salween River, which forms the border. (Than Lwin Khet News 8/29) This is another indication that in practice Thai authorities work with their Kawthoolei counterparts even while the Thai regime officially only recognizes the Naypyitaw military cartel.

Arakan----------------------

The junta is mounting a 2nd attempt to invade southern Arakan through Magway Region’s Mindon Township. About 1,500 troops started out from the junta’s weapons factory No. 12 on Aug. 22 and are again trying to assault Arakan Army positions, supported by heavy air bombing. The AA and PDFs attacked a convoy of about 100 junta troops on Aug. 23; they say they killed at least 20 of them and wounded around 30. They also captured a truck and some weapons and equipment. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/24, People’s Spring 8/26) The last attempted invasion, which began about one month ago, resulted in heavy junta casualties without any progress.

Details are now available from the Aug. 19 repulse of the junta column that tried to reinforce Natyaykan mountaintop base in Ngapé Township of western Bago Region on Aug. 19. The AA says it killed at least 50 of those troops and drove them out of 3 of their camps below the mountain. Two days previously, about 60 troops were killed in an interception before they could even reach a base camp at Gokji. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/26)

News emerged of the death of a senior junta commander in the battle for Kyauk Phyu, the coastal enclave that hosts the terminus of the Chinese gas and oil pipeline on the Indian Ocean. Maj. Lin Htet Kyaw Aung was killed on Aug. 21 and cremated locally. (People’s Spring 8/25)

In Sittwe, the besieged state capital, the junta sent 1,000 additional reinforcements by sea this week, along with weapons and ammunition. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/25) The city is described as ‘full of soldiers,’ and a junta blockade of land routes and waterways is causing a food shortage and hunger among the trapped population. (Than Lwin Khet News 8/22) Sittwe has been under intensive attack by the Arakan Army, forcing the junta to pull several of its defensive positions back.

Earlier news also emerged of a junta friendly-fire incident in Yeji Township of Irrawaddy Region during the 2nd week of August. Planes that have been bombing the area heavily came and bombed without the benefit of reconnaissance aircraft. They mistakenly hit a gang of 50 of their own troops, killing all but 5 of them who escaped with injuries. One of those was captured by the AA, the others died of their wounds. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/23)

The Arakan government’s education department has published its new curriculum and textbooks. They contain instruction in Arakan language, which is a variation of Burmese, and don’t cover Burma history. These textbooks are being distributed in AA-controlled Paletwa Township, which is technically in southern Chin State, among other places. (Myanmar Now 8/26)

Karenni----------------------

In one of the few such instances since China began backing the junta militarily in late 2024, Karenni defense forces recaptured a position on Aug. 26 that had previously been taken by the junta. They stormed a hilltop camp in eastern Loikaw Township, driving the troops there to flee and capturing some weapons. This was a sort of back-door counter-attack as the junta is trying to expand west of Loikaw in Demawso and Mobye Townships. (People’s Spring 8/28)

Fierce clashes are underway in Mobye Township as Karenni defenders resist excursions into the countryside by a junta column. That column had to retreat from a village it had occupied after Karenni drone-bombing killed and wounded several troops on Aug. 27. The junta is trying to get control of Nanmeikone, which would give it greater control of the whole Mobye-Loikaw-Demawso area. (People’s Spring 8/27)

All over Burma, farmers stopped planting the annual rice crop due to fear of bombing, or the danger that they would be driven from their land before harvest. In Karenni State at least, where 80% of the land is affected by conflict, many farmers have gone ahead with the 2026 paddy crop anyway, despite the risks. Survival has overcome fear for these villagers. (Kantarawaddy Times 8/27) In general, the tolerance for risk and danger in liberated areas has increased over the 5.5 years of the current civil war, with the downside of psychological damage such as anxiety disorders.

Chin----------------------

Local sources say the junta has withdrawn it 77th Division troops that were mostly responsible for the May invasion of northern Chin State, and has replaced them with police, which the junta uses as auxiliary troops. Meanwhile in Tunzan Township, Chin defense forces seized a camp of the junta-aligned ethnic Zomi splinter group. (People’s Spring 8/28) Withdrawing the 77th Division troops suggests the junta has switched its priority from northern Chin State to somewhere else.

Shan----------------------

A rare clash between the junta and the southern Shan RCSS militia broke out on Aug. 22 in Mongpyin Township. It only lasted about 20 minutes, provoked by a junta incursion, but 6 junta troops were killed. The rest then retreated. (People’s Spring 8/23) The RCSS masquerades as an ethnic army, but functions more as an armed drug cartel without a political platform. It has made an alliance of convenience with the Naypyitaw military cartel, sending representatives to its fake “peace process.” That said, it doesn’t willingly suffer junta invasions of its territory, which forms part of the infamous ‘Golden Triangle’ of opioid and methamphetamine drug manufacture and export. This clash is unlikely to upset the uneasy junta-RCSS alliance.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

Foreigners often ask who is funding Burma’s resistance. Here is an example: An on-line fundraising campaign by the National Unity Government called “Kite and Rope” raised US$180,693 from small donors during July. The money is specifically targeted at improving resistance drone warfare capacity. (Voice of Spring 8/29) Unlike the junta, Burma’s resistance forces have no international backers, but are crowd-funded and operate on shoestring budgets.

PDFs in Minhla Township in Sagaing Region attacked a junta column of 100 troops invading from Mindon, and then again on a reinforced column of 200 troops. The PDFs say that during a week of attacks Aug. 20-26, they captured weapons, a truck, an electric generator, and other equipment. Thirty junta troops were taken to a hospital, and the PDF says 20 of them died. (Voice of Spring 8/28)

A column of 700 junta troops has been trying to invade the oilfields of southern Myaing Township in Magway Region for the past 3 months, but has been repulsed twice due to bombs and ambushes by local PDFs, the latest time this past week. More attacks are anticipated as the junta forces regroup. In the meantime the junta is bombing with aircraft. (Maung 8/25)

PDFs mounted guerilla-style attacks on junta positions in 2 villages of Mattaya Township in northern Mandalay Region on Aug. 13, killing 6 troops and seizing some guns. Both are on the Irrawaddy River. The PDFs then withdrew. (Voice of Spring 8/24) Though these attacks are small in scale, the fact that the PDFs are again active in Maddaya after being driven out earlier is significant.

A PDF in Thayet Township of Magway Region is offering junta troops cash bounties for assassinating their officers, ranging from 1 million kyats (US$232) for a lieutenant up to 100 million kyats for a colonel. (People’s Spring 8/28)

Reduced access to communications is becoming evident in the slowness of news reaching the outside. A report just emerged of a PDF attack on a junta column in Kalay Township of Sagaing Region in late June, which killed 12 troops and netted some captured weapons. (Maung News 8/28) Since the 2021 attempted coup, the junta has been cutting off cell networks in conflict zones. For a while Starlink was replacing lost communication channels in liberated areas, but the SpaceX company has been shutting off or restricting Starlink services due to complaints about their use by criminal gangs involved in international scams.

National Unity Government southeast region military commanders held a 2-day convention in Kawthoolei’s Dooplaya District Aug. 23-24 to discuss tactical successes and lessons learned, and to plot strategy for the coming dry season. A special emphasis will be made to control the east bank of the Sittaung River in Kler Lwi Htoo District. Supply chains are being streamlined. The NUG southeastern regional command comprises PDF battalions, columns, drone squads, and special forces in Bago Region and Mon State as well as those under Karen army leadership. (Khit Thit Media 8/28)

Terrorism----------------------

Kachin forces clearing a village in Hpakant Township discovered a mass grave of 25 civilians after a year-long occupation by junta troops and their local Shanni splinter group proxies, on Aug. 24. (People’s Spring 8/24) Kachin sources say junta troops and their local Shanni proxy militia have killed 175 civilians in the past year. (Khit Thit Media 8/29)

This week marked 9 years since the genocide and exile of Arakan’s ethnic Rohingya minority by the Burma military in 2017. One million Rohingya are still in crowded refugee camps in neighboring Bangladesh. After keeping the remaining 600,000 Rohingyas in concentration camps, the junta is now forcibly conscripting young Rohingya men into its army within the tiny enclave of Sittwe. (Ayeyarwaddy Times, People’s Spring 8/25) On Aug. 27 the Arakan liberation government (ULA) held a remembrance ceremony for the 2017 Rohingya genocide, with the state’s Muslim leaders in attendance. (DVB E 8/27)

A source in the humanitarian group Free Burma Rangers witnessed junta troops using fresh conscripts as human shields in a minefield in Karenni State on Aug. 27. The FBR source said they watched junta troops proceeding through a minefield, forcing recruits ahead of them at gunpoint, and later found 3 of them killed by landmine blasts. (People’s Spring 8/27)

In Mandalay Region’s Myinchan Township, junta troops and their Pyu Saw Htee militia adjuncts have so thoroughly looted villages of all valuables and useful items that they are now stealing door frames and roofing. Civilian residents have fled and are living in the bush as refugees. (People’s Spring 8/27)

The Arakan public health department says that cattle are dying after grazing areas recently bombed by junta airstrikes, due to “gunpowder poisoning.” It urges residents not to consume crops from, or let livestock graze in, such bombed areas. (Arakan Princess Media 8/26)

Junta forced recruitment is increasingly indiscriminate. Troops have been observed grabbing men from streets in cities like Yangon, Mandalay, and Monywa. In Wandwin Township of Mandalay Region troops pulled farmers from their fields in mid-task; other farmers fled, and farm work has stopped. In Taunggyi, Shan State, both women and men are being dragged away for forced military service. (Mizzima, People’s Spring 8/28) Meanwhile, the National Unity Government is inviting youth at risk of junta conscription to join a Yangon-based PDF battalion. (Maung News 8/29)

A Chinese-supplied K-8 fighter jet crashed near the Meiktila air base on Aug. 21, killing an instructor and a pilot training to carry out terrorist bombing raids. The crash was likely due to malfunction. (People’s Spring 8/23) The Chinese planes are prone to defects and malfunctions.

Flood relief----------------------

Donated food and supplies for flood victims in southwestern Burma have been accumulating in junta warehouses without being distributed, after a month of flooding. The junta is hoarding the supplies in storage. Flood victims report having received nothing and are in urgent need. (Khit Thit Media 8/28) This reflects what happened after previous floods, storms, and earthquakes, when the junta received donated relief supplies and distributed very few of them. Populations in liberated areas fare slightly better, where relief supplies may be scarce but do get distributed by local aid groups.

A coalition of 43 local aid organizations in Sagaing Region sent a letter to the European Union on Aug. 24 to urge the EU to direct its €10.5 million worth of flood relief deliveries across land borders through local civil society organizations, the Sagaing Federal Interim Government, and the National Unity Government in order to avoid diversion and misuse by the junta, and so that the aid will reach its intended beneficiaries. The groups say the EU aid has not reached heavily-flooded Sagaing Region. The junta actually exacerbated the flood destruction and casualties by releasing water from 2 dams without notifying villagers downstream, who were flooded out and drowned. It is also bombing flood-affected people, imprisoning aid workers in the areas it controls, and stealing materials meant for the flood victims. A Karenni government aid worker was caught and murdered by junta troops in Hpruso Township on Aug. 20. The Sagaing groups say 1.2 million residents of 11 townships are affected by the August floods. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 8/24, People’s Spring 8/25) The EU, like the United Nations, is squeamish about working with the non-terrorist organizations that are the only structures capable of delivering humanitarian assistance in liberated areas where most flood and war victims are located.

Political & economic----------------------

After returning from a visit to Russia and its satellite Belarus where he sought loans and investment to prop up his regime, dictator Min Aung Hlaing said in an Aug. 26 public statement that Burma should be more “self-reliant,” suggesting that he didn’t get much support from his autocratic role models. Western countries and Japan suspended support after the 2021 attempted coup, and non-Chinese private companies have mostly stopped their Burma operations. The dictator signed 12 cooperation agreements with Russia and 9 with Belarus during his recent trip, but many appear to be symbolic, aspirational, or consist of sales agreements of hardware to the Naypyitaw regime. Junta economic mismanagement and military attacks on central Burma’s farming population have dramatically decreased domestic food and other production, making domestic self-reliance highly unlikely, especially in light of disasters like floods and earthquakes. The dictator has previously urged the people to eat less, while he directs most of the junta’s resources into the civil war and terrorist attacks on the population. The United Nations says 12.4 million Burma citizens suffer acute hunger. (The Irrawaddy E 8/26 www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/min-aung-hlaing-preaches-self-reliance-as-regime-seeks-foreign-support.html) Russia is more a vendor than an ally to Naypyitaw, so it expects payment for its supplies of military and industrial hardware.

Vietnam’s one-party Communist regime has invited the Burma dictator for an official visit to Hanoi at an unspecified future date. Vietnam has several large investments in Burma. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 8/27) As a fellow member of the regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN, Vietnam is agitating for the Burma dictator’s reintegration into the organization, where he has been unwelcome since the 2021 coup attempt. Thus far, the Burma coup regime’s international backers include the authoritarian governments of China, Russia, Laos, Belarus, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia. An embrace by North Korea is to be anticipated. An outlier is democratic India, where the Modi administration has dismissed the wishes of Burma’s people and courted its dictator instead. The regime remains sanctioned by Western governments and international institutions for war crimes and atrocities as well as the illegal seizure of power.

-စီၤထံဆၢ

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How it’s going----------------------

The corruption and complicity of the United Nations agencies in Burma was on full display this week as the World Food Program channeled flood assistance to the tiny junta-controlled bits of Arakan State to the exclusion of the great majority of the state that is liberated and where most flood victims are. The WFP did this in the full knowledge that the junta is blocking food assistance to Arakan and diverting international aid to its own military positions.

Simultaneously, jets bombed and destroyed temples, hospitals, and schools this week, international war crimes that confirm the junta’s status as a terrorist regime. This is the military cartel that the UN agencies and Thailand deal with as a “government.”

Chinese interference----------------------

Chinese police conducted a raid inside Burma. They entered a scam compound at 105 Mile, near Musé in northern Shan State on Aug. 15, arrested over 300 scam slave workers including Chinese nationals, then allowed local citizens to remove goods and property from the compound. Junta police accompanied the Chinese. (People’s Spring 8/16) This is the latest in a series of direct China government operations inside Burma, including China officials directing the junta takeover in Lashio, armed unofficial troops in Kyauk Phyu, and movement of border fences into Burma territory. Chinese private and state-owned companies also control key resources and locations inside Burma.

Kawthoolei----------------------

The junta continues its southward offensive from Myawaddy along the Thai border in Dooplaya District. Having made no headway along the border road, troops are trying to circumvent the Karen army defenses by detouring through the Dawna Mountain range to the west, but are being intercepted there too. On Aug. 17 the Karen again reported junta casualties, where the bodies were abandoned by fleeing troops. The junta is air-dropping ammunition and food to the front line because the land supply lines aren’t secure. All of this is visible and audible from across the border in Thailand, and junta shells are again falling inside Thai territory. (People’s Spring 8/17)

The junta again mysteriously attacked its own proxy DKBA militia with a volley of mortar fire into its camp near Palu-Minletpan on the Thai border on Aug. 17. The explosions killed 2 DKBA fighters and injured a number of civilian family members. Whether the attack was intentional, as the Karen army claims, or was misdirected fire intended for the Karen army isn’t explained. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 8/18) There have been a series of junta attacks on its loyal DKBA during this war.

Arakan----------------------

The junta again attempted to send a column of reinforcements to its mountaintop base at Natyaykan in Ngapé Township of Magway Region on Aug. 17, which is surrounded by the Arakan Army. Once again the AA attacked the reinforcements, inflicting heavy casualties and forcing them to retreat after 3 days of battle ending on Aug. 19. (Network Media Group 8/20)

In response to its continuous losses and fruitless attacks against the AA in Magway, Bago, and Irrawaddy Regions, the junta has mounted a convoy of 156 trucks and hundreds of troops and ammunition from Naypyitaw and its Meiktila military base to send to the front lines. The convoy filed through Pyay in western Bago Region on Aug. 21, heading west. This zone is important because it houses a number of the junta’s weapons factories, which are now in danger from AA forces that are close by. (People’s Spring 8/21)

Kachin----------------------

While the Kachin army battles the junta in Shweku and Mabeim Townships, there is also sporadic fighting in Tanai Township northwest of the state capital Myitkyina. A pro-junta militia there is threatening to shoot civilians who try to flee the fighting. (People’s Spring 8/17) By preventing civilians from leaving conflict zones, the junta typically uses them as human shields to protect itself from the resistance forces.

Chin----------------------

Despite the military successes of the Chin resistance forces, they suffer from an internal fractiousness that has impeded ethnic Chin integration and was allegedly at fault for some of the junta’s successes in invading northern Chin State earlier this year. The governor of adjacent Mizoram State in India, which has a large ethnic Chin population, invited the three main Chin factions to a reconciliation meeting Aug. 6-8. All of them attended, but significantly they didn’t meet with each other, meeting only with the Mizoram hosts separately. (Mizzima E 8/21)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs are battling junta troops inside Sagaing town. Clashes erupted on Aug. 19, a PDF soldier was killed and the junta troops hit land mines, but details are still scarce. (Maung News 8/19)

On Aug. 10 PDFs in Myinchan Township of Mandalay Region ambushed a junta convoy of 70 troops, killing 14 of them including the commander of a drone unit. Reinforcements sent in response were also attacked. (Khit Thit Media 8/20)

Other PDFs in Bago Region overran a junta road checkpoint in Letpandan on Aug. 15. All the junta troops there fled in disarray, but the number of casualties and weapons confiscated isn’t reported. (People’s Spring 8/19) These checkpoints are used to kidnap young men for forced military service and to extort cash from travelers.

The National Unity Government released some combat statistics for the month of July: 315 junta soldiers killed including 29 officers, and 473 were injured. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 8/20) The number of defectors and deserters isn’t known or reported, which may be greater than the battle casualties.

Terrorism----------------------

Jets bombed a monastery as it was crowded with holiday worshipers on Aug. 21, killing at least 20 civilians including monks and injuring around 12 others. The monastery in Myaung Township of Sagaing Region was destroyed. Regime propaganda has tried to portray itself as the defender of Buddhism and Burma identity, but in practice it regularly bombs temples and kills monks and worshipers. (People’s Spring E 8/21) As in other recent bombings, there was no military objective, this was a purely terrorist attack in a liberated area.

The military junta massed troops and Pyu Saw Htee proxy militants around a village in Pinlebu Township in northern Sagaing Region, then conducted terrorist airstrikes on Aug. 18, killing 9 civilians and injuring 11. (Mizzima 8/18)

Jets destroyed a civilian hospital in Shweku Township of Kachin State on Aug. 18, where refugees have been sheltering and receiving health services. Buildings, equipment, and supplies were lost when planes dropped 500 pound bombs on and near the hospital. (The 74 Media 8/19) On Aug. 16 jets destroyed a school and hospital in Kawthoolei’s Mergui-Tavoy District, killing 4 civilians and injuring 13. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/19) Bombing at a school killed 3 children and injured 9 in Theinzayat in Kawthoolei’s Doo Tha Htoo District on Aug. 20. (Than Lwin Times 8/20)

Captured junta records show that a battalion operating in Wetlet Township during April was composed of 3 officers, 17 experienced soldiers, and 80 raw forced recruits. The field battalions rely heavily on artillery and air support to compensate for the ineffectiveness of new conscripts. (Khit Thit Media 8/16) The fact that the junta is sending mostly hastily-trained, inexperienced, and unwilling troops into battle against veteran PDFs helps explain their poor effectiveness and high defection rates. Rather than fighting, the few veterans in the ranks are mainly tasked with keeping the conscripts from bolting.

The junta continues its drive to reopen the Asia Highway in the Sagaing Region. After recapturing Kampat town and the stretch along the Indian border to Tamu, it is now working on a 200 km segment to the south, from Kalay on the Chin State boundary to Monywa, the Sagaing capital. PDFs continue resisting and inflicting casualties, while the junta deploys airstrikes. (DVB E 8/17)

Post-coup societal breakdown----------------------

An investigation by The Irrawaddy news organization has found that, in the governance vacuum following the 2021 attempted coup, the HIV infection rate in Myawaddy city on the Thai border has surged. There are now over 2,600 people receiving treatment (no baseline is specified.) That doesn’t include many other individuals not receiving treatment. The cause is the proliferation of prostitution in the city’s brothels, karaoke bars, and massage parlors managed by the junta’s local proxy militias known as the BGF and DKBA, in a city dominated by Chinese-owned scam centers and casinos. Junta administrators deny the HIV problem and have arrested a token number of sex workers, but local health practitioners are seeing the evidence of the upsurge in infections. (www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/hiv-infections-surge-in-myawaddy-amid-control-black-hole.html)

Crime in general has become epidemic since the attempted coup as police are diverted to fight in the war or degenerate into uniformed criminals who extort the public. Going out after dark has become dangerous in cities. The absence of law enforcement and the deepening economic hardship have led to the proliferation of break-ins, armed robbery, and mugging, but now public infrastructure is deteriorating as criminals steal manhole covers, railroad spikes, and electric wires to sell as scrap metal. In addition, thieves strip parked cars of wheels, gasoline, and rearview mirrors. This is taking place in Burma’s main cities Yangon and Mandalay, as well as in provincial towns like Musé. The regime denies that there is a crime problem. (Myanmar Now 8/20)

Some of the flood-related drownings and displacement are the result of failure of dykes and dams that have not been maintained by the junta, whose resources are all devoted to the civil war. (DVB E 8/20)

Such symptoms are what one would see in any failed state. The only control exercised by the regime is on political opposition and forced military conscription. Everything else is deteriorating into chaos and insecurity.

Flood relief----------------------

Over 95% of Arakan is liberated and controlled by the Arakan Army, and that’s where most flooding victims are, but the UN World Food Program is delivering its flood assistance to the tiny parts still controlled by the junta. WFP representatives met with junta operatives in Sittwe town on Aug. 18 about delivering food there, in Kyauk Phyu, and in Manaung, the 3 remaining junta enclaves. No food will be delivered to the vast majority of Arakan suffering from floods, where the regime is actively blocking food transport. An Arakan source said that past WFP food aid has been diverted to junta military positions, and this instance promises to be no different. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/19)

The junta also continues to block international flood relief from reaching victims in inundated areas of Sagaing Region. Troops are closing roads to prevent volunteers and food and shelter items from donors such as the United Nations World Food Program reaching flood-affected villages in Tantse, Khin Oo, Ye Oo, Kawlin, Kantbalu, Shwebo, Wetlet, Depayin, Ayadaw, and Myinmu Townships. Instead, the regime is air-dropping aid to camps of its Pyu Saw Htee militia that are stranded by the floods. The only assistance in liberated areas is being provided by the National Unity Government and resistance battalions. (The Irrawaddy E 8/16 www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-regime-blocks-aid-to-sagaing-flood-victims.html)

The Burma diaspora community in Korea and elsewhere has been raising funds for flood relief back home, and this assistance will be handled by the National Unity Government, so that it doesn’t get blocked or diverted by the junta. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 8/17)

Political & economic----------------------

Burma’s main resistance umbrella political structure, the Steering Committee for the Emergence of Federal Democracy (SCEF), expanded this week when the provincial liberation governments of Mandalay and Sagaing Regions officially joined. (People’s Spring 8/17) These are 2 of the 3 large provinces of the Anyah region, which consists of the ethnic majority Bamar central heartland in the middle of the country. The SCEF is currently in talks with the 3rd Anyah province, Magway. (People’s Spring 8/19) The SCEF also comprises Kawthoolei, Kachin, and Karenni, as well as the central National Unity Government. The member jurisdictions are committed to fighting under a unified command, so the combination of majority Bamar provinces with the ethnic minority homelands is significant. Further membership expansion is anticipated as the SCEF actively reaches out to the various resistance forces and political structures.

Burma dictator Min Aung Hlaing continued his tour of authoritarian bloc countries with a visit to Russia on Aug. 17-18, where he met with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. The two regimes have been helping each other circumvent international sanctions. The Burma regime just awarded a major contract to a Russian firm, Astra Consulting LLC, for a software platform for its draconian import-export regulations. This platform will contain personal and business information of every authorized international trader, and will be linked to the treasury and other departments. Analysts fear that this will give access and control of the data not only to the Burma regime, but to Russia as well. (DVB E 8/17) Perhaps the only surprise is that the contract didn’t go to China, which supplies the junta’s surveillance and tracking infrastructure. In fact Russia is not so much an ally of the Burma junta as a vendor, selling military hardware and other services to it. Russia’s diplomatic outreach can be interpreted as part of its sales strategy.

Spurred by the Moscow visit, the junta is intensifying its military effort to clear villages out of an area north of Tavoy town (Dawei) that it has designated as a Special Economic Zone. Russia has pledged to help the regime develop this zone. The Burmese are taking that pledge seriously, though if past pledges are any indication, Russia likely means it symbolically. (DVB E 8/21) Historically, Burma’s successive military regimes have carried out economic projects at the expense of local populations, expelling them without compensation, and killing them if they resist.

After Moscow, the dictator was scheduled to visit its satellite Belarus, followed by a trip to Cambodia, another one-party autocracy. (Myanmar Now 8/19) All of this is part of his quest for legitimacy after crowning himself “president” following the sham election in December and January. Non-authoritarian governments still consider him a rogue military usurper.

Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin continues to face blow-back from his entertaining of the Burma dictator in Bangkok during the first week of August. In addition to a no-confidence vote in parliament, a committee of parliament members of different ASEAN countries that focuses on human rights condemned Anutin’s embrace of Min Aung Hlaing, who it says is guilty of one of the world’s worst human rights catastrophes. (DVB E 8/21) There were also protests by Burma pro-democracy activists targeting Thai embassies in foreign capitals such as Washington DC. (DVB E 8/16)

Meanwhile, Thailand welcomed another internationally sanctioned Burma war criminal, titular military chief General Ye Win Oo (dictator Min Aung Hlaing remains in actual control of the military). Ye Win Oo is known for overseeing the junta’s torture and interrogation industry. He arrived in Bangkok Aug. 19 to discuss details of collaboration between the Thailand and Burma military regimes. More than 1,900 political prisoners have died under Ye Win Oo’s control of prisons and interrogation. (The Irrawaddy E 8/19)

The Burma junta continues to reject calls from the regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN for adherence to its 5-point plan, which involves, among other things, release of political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi. The junta is blocking ASEAN special envoys to Burma. (The Irrawaddy E 8/16)

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How it’s going----------------------

Much of the news this week was about the weather rather than the war, as monsoon rains exacerbated by climate change drenched various parts of the country and caused severe flooding. This didn’t stop the junta from bombing communities dealing with surging rivers and inundated farms. Jets and drones struck flooded villages in Wetlet and Khin Oo Townships of Sagaing Region and killed 4 people in Kachin-controlled Mabeim Township in Shan State, among others. (Maung News 8/11, 8/13) Junta administrators in Shwebo in Sagaing Region threatened to seize the homes of flood relief workers helping victims in areas not under junta control. (People’s Spring 8/11)

The country’s 4 million internal refugees are living under tarps and thatch roofs, so the severe weather only increases their hardships as they try to keep their food and clothing dry. Dictator Min Aung Hlaing was oblivious as he sipped champagne with the Thai military-backed Prime Minister in Bangkok.

United Nations agencies and the European Union stepped up with millions of dollars in aid for victims of the catastrophic floods. That aid, however, passes through the control of the same regime that wants to bomb, not feed, the flood victims. These collusionist international agencies still treat the Naypyitaw war criminals as if they were some sort of “government.”

The National Unity Government and Sagaing Region’s liberation provincial government meanwhile set up a joint task force to assist victims of the flooding, and PDFs with NUG funding provided health care to flood victims despite junta attempts at restriction in liberated parts of Shwebo Township. Though its means are limited, the NUG does provide some disaster relief to affected populations in liberated areas.

Thai Prime Minister Anutin now faces a vote of no-confidence in parliament, sponsored by the opposition People’s Party, as a direct result of his flirtation with the Burma dictator, an active war criminal. The vote will take place when parliament reconvenes on Aug. 25. (Khit Thit Media 8/12) In Thailand, however, it is the military that determines the prime ministership, meaning that even if Anutin loses the confidence vote, his replacement would have to share similar policies toward Burma.

Where Burma fighting did take place this week, junta forces continued to suffer heavy casualties and desertions without making headway against their targets in Irrawaddy, Magway, and Kawthoolei. The Kachin extended their reversal of the junta’s previous offensive in Shweku Township.

Kachin----------------------

As part of the Kachin army’s rollback of the junta’s offensive in Shweku Township, it retook several outposts on the periphery of the town on Aug. 8, and is using FPV kamikaze drone bombs against junta troops inside the town. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/8) The Kachin captured many weapons including mortars during the fighting, and have begun to encircle the town. (People’s Spring 8/9)

Junta forces and lackey militia attacked Kachin army positions just 3 km outside Momeik town in northwestern Shan State, a town that China forced the Ta’ang ethnic army (TNLA) to cede to the junta during November 2025. The junta pressured the northern Shan SSPP militia to attack the Kachin on Aug. 11-12, which it did half-heartedly. Fighting is ongoing there. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/12) The Kachin have been asserting themselves where the Ta’ang withdrew in that corner of Shan State, which has an ethnic Kachin population. The SSPP has tried to lay low and avoid involvement with the current civil war, but has at times defended against junta incursions in 2022-23. Currently it is involved in the junta’s fake “peace process” due to pressure from China.

Arakan----------------------

The junta is fortifying bridges and entrance points to Sittwe, the embattled capital of Arakan, one of 3 coastal enclaves still held by the junta. It is also relocating its naval base closer to the city center from the outskirts where it is currently under Arakan Army attack. Troops demolished homes and dug bunkers on the periphery, and have taken up positions in large buildings in town, in anticipation of further AA encroachment. (People’s Spring 8/8, 8/11)

In its other main coastal enclave in Arakan, Kyauk Phyu, the junta is continually shipping in reinforcements to backfill for heavy casualties from a battle taking place outside the town. A Chinese drone team has arrived to help prop up the junta’s flagging defenses. The AA reports “dozens” of junta casualties when 200 troops emerged from the embattled naval base near Kyauk Phyu on Aug. 11. The survivors then had to retreat. (Ayeyarwaddy Times, People’s Spring 8/13)

In Arakan’s 3rd major battlefield, in northern Irrawaddy Region, the junta again tried to advance and was beaten on Aug. 12 when columns in Yeji, Laymyet Hna, and Thapaung Townships suffered heavy casualties and had to retreat. Fighting lasted more than 7 hours. The AA captured a large haul of weapons, and supplied photos of dead junta troops, though no numbers are given. (People’s Spring 8/14)

Kawthoolei----------------------

Battles continue along the Thai border south of Myawaddy in Dooplaya District. On Aug. 9 junta troops launched yet another ground attack near Ye Kone, and were again driven back with heavy losses by the Karen army and allied PDFs. The junta continued with air bombing. (Karen Information Center 8/12)

Ta’ang----------------------

The ethnic Ta’ang Civil Society Network held its conference Aug. 4-6, and issued a statement Aug. 10 warning the Ta’ang government (PSLF/TNLA) not to collude with the Naypyitaw junta. (Karenni People’s Voice 8/20) Though the TNLA was beaten militarily and is now acting according to the demands of China with regards to collaboration with the junta, Ta’ang civil society has repeatedly demonstrated its unhappiness with that submission to junta/Chinese manipulation.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

The Spring Revolution’s umbrella governing body, the SCEF, has named the commanders of the Kawthoolei and Kachin armed forces as co-chairs of its military campaign. Karen Vice-General Baw Kyaw Heh and Kachin government (KIO) Vice President General Gam Shawng were appointed to run the SCEF’s military strategy during an Aug. 7 meeting. (People’s Spring 8/11) Kawthoolei and Kachin are the most powerful members of the SCEF (which Arakan has thus far not joined.) This appointment acknowledges the de facto military centrality of the long-standing ethnic minority armies vis-à-vis the Bamar-majority PDF forces, which were created during the past five years since the 2021 attempted coup.

News emerged that PDFs captured a strategic junta position in northern Sagaing Region during the last week of July. The camp is between Indaw and Kathah, and it controls the road used by the junta to reinforce and supply its garrison in Kathah. Details are vague, but PDFs say about 30 of the 100 or so junta troops stationed there were killed or wounded, and about 50 weapons were seized. (People’s Spring 8/10)

PDFs defending against an attempted junta invasion of southern Chin State captured over 20 troops during fighting in Gangaw Township of Magway Region, before they could reach the Chin border. The fighting continues. (People’s Spring 8/9) PDFs in Pauk and Myaing Townships said on Aug. 15 that it fought at least 30 clashes since May with a junta column of 500 troops, killing over 50 of them and capturing numerous weapons. Those troops had killed 24 civilians and burned more than 300 homes. (People’s Spring 8/15)

Terrorism----------------------

A terrorist airstrike in Thandwe in southern Arakan on Aug. 10 killed at least 14 civilians including children in a monastery and injured 6 others. Jets dropped 300-pound bombs on a monastery. (Maung News 8/11)

Thailand’s military-backed Prime Minister Anutin has ordered his security forces to step up policing of border areas to prevent weapons reaching pro-democracy forces in Burma, following a request from Burma’s terrorist leader Min Aung Hlaing during his visit to Bangkok Aug. 6-7. (Bangkok Post via Myanmar Now 8/11)

The United Nations Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar published a report on Aug. 11 documenting the regime’s constant targeting of civilians for bombing, arbitrary detentions, sexual assault, and torture. (https://iimm.un.org/en/myanmar-mechanism-investigations-reveal-deliberate-attacks-civilians-myanmar-military-annual-report) While the report seems to belabor the obvious, it is important in countering the regime’s attempt to normalize its brutality through diplomatic and propaganda outreach, showcased in the dictator’s recent visits to China, India, and Thailand.

As the junta’s military manpower crisis deepens, it has begun training female forced recruits at its base in Hmawbi, Yangon Region. The numbers are still small, 300 to 400, mostly workers taken from urban factories and shops. The junta says they are destined for rear echelon duties like communications, supply, medical, and admin, but it has been known to send non-combat people to the front lines to fight. (Maung News 8/10)

Junta troops kidnapped and jailed 19 community workers in Pauk Township of Magway Region for the crime of educating children in a liberated area. The 19 teachers and school workers are suspected of working with the National Unity Government’s Ministry of Education as well as local schools. (Myanmar Now 8/15)

Political & economic----------------------

The Thai member of parliament, Anusorn Tamajai, who was ejected from a press conference on Aug. 7 when he shouted a protest against the Prime Minister’s fraternization with Burma’s genocidal dictator, subsequently published a warning to Thai businesses. He says they could lose their investments if they get involved in Burma before democracy and human rights are restored. Besides the risks of the war, Thai companies could fall under international sanctions targeting Burma’s rogue regime, and could have their reputations sullied by their association with it. Anusorn is a member of the People’s Party and an economist. (People’s Spring 8/10)

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How it’s going----------------------

On Aug. 3, regime propaganda channels revealed that an International Red Cross representative met with jailed Burma head of state Aung San Suu Kyi, and provided photos of her cutting a cake marked “Happy Birthday Aunty Suu.” Her birthday was June 19, so the photos would appear to be a month and a half old. An ICRC-Myanmar memo confirmed the visit, which is the first proof in more than 6 months that the jailed head of state is still alive. (Myaelatt Athan 8/3) The 81-year-old Nobel Prize-winning national leader has been held hostage in prison by the military cartel since the attempted coup on Feb. 1, 2021, mostly in solitary confinement.

The timing of the announcement of the Red Cross prison visit just before the dictator’s Aug. 6-8 trip to Thailand is interpreted as part of the junta’s effort to legitimize itself internationally.The National Unity Government cautioned not to interpret this meeting as a sign of any progress in restoring human rights and democracy in Burma. Aung San Suu Kyi is still held incommunicado in prison, as are at least 20,000 other political prisoners. (DVB E 8/5) Likewise in America, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee James Risch said that the meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi is not enough, she must be freed and allowed to communicate with her family. By using the word ‘coup,’ Senator Risch made clear that his committee rejects the sham election and the fake civilian government of the military junta. (Maung News 8/6)

The dictator’s visit to the Thai military-backed regime this week was greeted with protests internationally and on the streets of Bangkok, chiefly by members of the Burma diaspora, human rights organizations, and Thai civil rights groups. A Thai member of parliament was hustled away by police after he shouted a protest to the military Prime Minister. A common remark is that Thai Prime Minister Anutin cheapened his status by honoring an active war criminal, and the contact could jeopardize Thailand’s bid to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Thai government insisted, against all appearances, that hosting Burma’s dictator doesn’t imply support for its military regime.

One wonders in what world regional diplomats and politicians live. Bangladesh Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir hosted Burma coup regime chief of staff Kyaw Soe Moe in Dhaka on August 2 to discuss “reopening of border trade” and repatriation of the 1 million Rohingya refugees driven into Bangladesh by the genocide of 2017. (Khit Thit Media 8/2) The problem: The coup regime has no access to the Bangladesh border, which has been entirely controlled by the Arakan Army since 2023. It is like asking a person for a loan of an object that belongs to that person’s enemy. Also, there is the idiocy of asking the same regime that massacred and drove out the Rohingya to now receive them back. The insistence by neighboring governments on dealing with the coup plotters and calling them “Myanmar” bespeaks a stubborn blindness to the reality of the Burma conflict.

August 8 is the 38th anniversary of the “8888” uprising that began on this date in 1988. The national revolt ended the rule of original dictator Ne Win that began with a coup in 1962, but resulted in the deaths of thousands of protesters and the first guerrilla rebellion when the military regime cracked down. Each year modern protesters mark the anniversary, often with 4 umbrellas marked “၈၈၈၈”, the Burmese numbers for the date.

The fighting: Kawthoolei----------------------

Junta forces are still flailing ineffectually against the Karen army at Palu-Minletpan in Dooplaya District. The Karen have been joined by a PDF from Mon State, the Yamanya Mon Army. The Kawthoolei government (KNU) reports that on Aug. 3, an attack column consisting of 2 junta battalions was nearly wiped out, including the commander, and some weapons were captured. The KNU provided photos of junta corpses and captured weapons. (KNU 8/3) The Black Panther Column, a PDF under Karen army command, says that junta recruits are defecting at an increasing rate. Sources in Myawaddy city say the hospitals there are full of junta wounded. (Black Panther Column, People’s Spring 8/4, Karen Information Center 8/6)

On Aug. 2 junta mortar shells and some gunfire struck 5 homes on the Thai side of the border. No injuries are reported, but the KNU accuses the junta of doing it on purpose to provoke a reaction from the Thai government. (People’s Spring 8/2)

Karenni----------------------

A junta column that invaded 2 villages in Demawso Township on July 28 had to retreat 3 days later after suffering losses at the hands of the Karenni defenders. Two officers were among those killed. In addition, a junta spy was caught, the 4th one since mid-July. The junta is trying to regain control of the road connecting Karenni’s 2 largest towns, the capital Loikaw and Demawso. (Khit Thit Media 8/2)

Another column of 200 junta troops left Loikaw on July 18 to try to invade nearby areas of Demawso Township and was attacked by Karenni defense forces. On Aug. 3 the junta troops retreated back to Loikaw after an undisclosed number of casualties. (Salween Press 8/6)

A terrorist drone strike by Min Aung Hlaing’s junta killed 3 men, a woman, and a baby in Hpruso Township on Aug. 5. Terrorist airstrikes on civilian refugees continued in Karenni through the dictator’s reception in Bangkok. (Khit Thit Media 8/6)

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army and allied PDF continued to roll back the junta’s May-June offensive in Shweku Township, driving troops from a village on Aug. 3. The junta forces retreated in such haste that they abandoned their wounded soldiers and weapons. Jets then bombed the village 4 times, but the civilian population had long since fled. (People’s Spring 8/4)

Chin----------------------

As junta forces continue to bash themselves against Chin defenses in southern Chin State, the death toll among both troops and officers is reported to be high. The Chin forces say that since mid-May when the offensive began, a junta battalion commander and many troops have died, and the Chin have captured bodies and weapons. The junta columns have not penetrated Kanpetlet or Mindat, but are stuck attacking outside of Chin State in adjacent areas of Magway Region. (Mandalay Free Press 8/2)

The Chin National Organization, the political formation representing Chin defense forces, dismissed its chairman on Aug. 3 after he held an unauthorized meeting with someone from the junta on or around July 31. (Myanmar Now 8/3) The junta tried to create the appearance of a “peace process” from April to July involving ethnic resistance organizations, but only small, unrepresentative ethnic splinter groups took the bait. The Chin, like the other main ethnic armed organizations, maintain a policy of non-recognition of the illegal military cartel that they are jointly fighting to eradicate. The CNO chairman’s contact with regime operatives was deeply embarrassing to the organization.

Arakan----------------------

The junta sent about 520 troops north from Irrawaddy Region to try to invade Arakan’s southernmost Gwa Township on July 28-30, but casualties have been heavy and they have not made any headway against the Arakan Army. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/4)

Likewise, troops launched attacks on AA positions in Yeji and Thapaung Townships of Irrawaddy Region on Aug. 1-2, but were beaten and had to retreat, leaving behind dead bodies and weapons that fell into AA hands. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 8/5)

The junta has been discussing a natural gas pipeline and trade links connecting the junta and Bangladesh, without either of those parties mentioning the Arakan administration across whose territory such links would have to pass.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

Commanders of People’s Defense Forces under the National Unity Government held a 4-day strategy meeting Aug. 3-6. The main outcome from the meeting was a change from a defensive posture to offense against junta forces. (Than Lwin Times 8/7) The junta has been on a surge using its large number of forced recruits through much of 2026, but its offensives in places like Kachin, Kawthoolei, Chin, and Arakan show signs of weakening and falling back, as the new recruits suffer high casualties and flee their battalions. The gains made by the junta consist mainly of towns occupied, but that hasn’t translated into control of surrounding territory or ability to assert administrative governance even in the towns.

Junta----------------------

A Chinese-made junta jet from the Hmawbi air base in Yangon Region crashed during a training flight after a bird strike ignited an engine fire on Aug. 3. The terrorist pilot ejected safely. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 8/3)

Resistance forces have been using highly-accurate first-person view (FPV) drones to target junta troops, supplies, and weapons. Now the junta is also using FPV drones, and what it targets is civilian refugees. Karenni defense forces report FPV drone strikes in refugee camps this week, causing injuries and damaging shelters. (Local sources 8/5)

Among the gear seized by Chin defense forces from retreating junta troops in southern Chin State were spools of fiber-optic cable used for unjammable attack drones, proving that the junta is catching up to resistance forces in drone technology. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 8/3) Drones that are guided with optical fiber are immune to electronic signal jamming and can penetrate areas protected by the jammers that interfere with the guidance signals of radio-controlled drones. Fiber-guided drones have been used extensively by resistance forces and are thought to have been introduced in Burma by allies from Ukraine, the current world leader in attack drone technology.

Political & economic----------------------

Burma Catholic Cardinal Charles Bo and other church leaders continue their close relationship with the junta dictator, paying a visit and photo-op to Min Aung Hlaing at his palace on Aug. 3. The cardinal expressed his appreciation to the coup plotter for his efforts and for land to build a Catholic church in the military capital Naypyitaw. The cardinal didn’t mention the many Catholic churches bombed and destroyed by Min Aung Hlaing’s regime, especially in Karenni and Chin States. Regime propaganda channels immediately disseminated photos of the visit. (The Irrawaddy B 8/5)

Similarly, a delegation from the Wa ethnic homeland visited the dictator at his palace on Aug. 3. Like the Ta’ang before them, the Wa requested recognition of a state of their own carved out of Shan State, but were refused. (Shwe Phee Myay 8/5) The self-declared Wa State has long been controlled by China, but formerly held itself aloof from all other events and actors in Burma, including the regime and the civil war. Now, with China forcing the northern borderland ethnic groups into embracing the junta, the Wa are following in the footsteps of their neighbors the Ta’ang and the Kokang in making a pilgrimage to Naypyitaw.

The Modi government in India, which is friendly toward Burma’s dictatorship, has been trying to construct a border fence between Burma’s Sagaing Region and India’s Manipur State, passing through the midst of indigenous ethnic homelands. Local people have been stealing fencing materials, removing posts, and planting landmines in the path of construction. (Mizzima 8/7)

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How it’s going----------------------

China has upped the ante in its support for the terrorist regime, directly challenging governments that claim to support democratic rule in Burma.

Foreign governments supportive of Burma’s pro-democracy movement have confined their support to sanctions and strongly-worded statements. The sanctions have targeted the supply of jet fuel for the junta’s air terror campaign against the civilian population.

A new investigation shows that the sanctions are a dismal failure. Jet fuel imports more than doubled, from 65,562 metric tons in 2024 to 140,306 MT in 2025, a 117% increase. Companies and regime-aligned governments evade sanctions by a number of means including shadow companies, mid-ocean cargo transfers between ships, etc.

Now, China is helping the Naypyitaw military cartel to build its own jet fuel refinery in Yangon, which will transform crude oil from Burma’s offshore wells into an uninterruptible domestic supply of fuel for the regime’s Russian- and Chinese-supplied jets as they bomb the civilian population. (DVB E 8/1 https://english.dvb.no/chinese-firms-are-helping-myanmars-military-build-a-jet-fuel-refinery-investigation-finds)

Calls have multiplied recently for direct action by governments that oppose terrorism and support democratic rule over authoritarian power seizure. This latest news confirms that sanctions and statements aren’t doing anything. Attempted neutrality is even worse, in that it tacitly supports the terrorism taking place in Burma. Yes, this means that a side must be chosen. The situation demands unambiguous support for the pro-democracy movement, backed by concrete help. That help must go beyond food for the 4 million internal refugees, to include hardware to fight the terrorist regime. Otherwise, Beijing’s support for the terrorism will only exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and continue the conversion of Burma to a miserable colony of exploitation for China’s economy.

The new refinery must be taken out before it begins operation. Resistance forces need anti-aircraft weapons to defend against the terrorist airstrikes. Foreign governments must engage openly with Burma’s legitimate leadership, namely the SCEF and established ethnic homeland governments, and discuss their needs for ending the illegal seizure of power. Statements, sanctions, and dithering need to be replaced by meaningful action, urgently.

Arakan----------------------

The Arakan Army has attacked a 60-vehicle convoy trying to reinforce the junta’s besieged mountaintop Natyaykan camp in Ngapé Township of western Magway Region. The column approached on July 24, but the AA showered it with drone bombs and mortar fire, and damaged an iconic radar station dome on the mountaintop. (Ayeyarwaddy Times, Khit Thit Media 7/26)

To the south in Irrawaddy Region, AA successes in Yeji Township have prompted the junta to begin beefing up defenses in the main population center, Pathein town, where its southwest regional command HQ is located. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/26)

On the political front, the AA and the Spring Revolution umbrella committee (SCEF) held their first meeting online July 23. AA chief Gen. Htun Myat Naing spoke with NUG Prime Minister Mahn Win Khaing Than regarding flood relief provided by the NUG to Arakan, the present political situation, and the political process going forward. (People’s Spring 7/26) Arakan is not a member of the SCEF, unlike the governments of Kawthoolei, Kachin, Karenni, and Chin, but the SCEF would like the AA as a key military ally of the Spring Revolution to join. The AA has a history of independent action, however.

The Arakan administration (ULA) has a poor track record of relations with the Rohingya Muslim minority, which has its own language and institutions and is mostly in exile in Bangladesh refugee camps. On July 30 the ULA announced plans to hire 500 Muslim school teachers to provide education in the Rohingya language in government schools, as a measure of improving the government’s relationship with that minority. (Western News 7/30) The junta’s co-optation of a Rohingya armed group, ARSA, to mount attacks against the Arakan Army has hindered these relations.

The Malaysian government is saying that the Burma junta agreed to accept 5,000 Rohingya civilians for repatriation, after online Malay hate speech campaigns led to persistent riots against Rohingya refugees in Penang State of Malaysia. Where the junta intends to put these refugees isn’t clear, since it doesn’t control their home country of Arakan. Rohingya spokespeople are already voicing fears for their safety, since the conditions that drove them into exile have not improved.

Kawthoolei----------------------

After getting badly mauled at Ye Kone west of Lay Kay Kaw in Dooplaya District on July 21, the junta has kept sending more troops, but the results have been similar. On July 24 a regimental commander and a major were killed along with an unknown number of troops, and 6 new forced recruits surrendered and came over to the Karen army, bringing their weapons. (People’s Spring 7/26) On July 29 the Karen captured another haul of weapons after inflicting heavy casualties on the junta with drones and mortar fire. (People’s Spring 7/30)

An unidentified party planted a bomb that blew up a vehicle carrying pro-junta BGF militants on July 26, killing 7 and wounding 9. Significantly, the attack happened in Myawaddy city, which is controlled by the junta and its BGF lackeys. (Karen Information Center 7/26) The same day, a drone bomb exploded next to the main border bridge leading to Thailand. Damage isn’t reported, but bombs falling in Myawaddy are an escalation of the conflict that has mostly been outside the city before now. (Mizzima 7/26)

On July 30 Thailand issued an arrest warrant for a senior commander named Mote Thone of the BGF, on charges of cross-border crimes including human trafficking in relation to the scam centers it controls. (The Irrawaddy B 7/30) The next day July 31, the European Union announced sanctions against the DKBA splinter group and 5 of its top officers on scamming and money laundering charges. The Kawthoolei government (KNU) reiterated that the DKBA and BGF groups are heavily involved in international criminal operations, and that any raids conducted by the junta or these splinter groups are merely for show.

Responding to international pressure against its scam centers, the junta made a public show of raiding one of them at Kyaukkhat, south of Mywaddy on the Thai border on July 27. It “arrested” 777 scam workers of whom 631 were Chinese nationals, though thousands of others evacuated during the preceding days to relocate their operations elsewhere. Kyaukkhat is an enclave of the DKBA. Then on July 29 the DKBA announced the withdrawal of its militants from the junta offensive attacking the Karen army at Palu-Minletpan south of Myawaddy, for reasons that aren’t explained. (The Irrawaddy E 7/28, Than Lwin Khet News 7/29)

Kachin----------------------

The tide has been turning in Kachin State, where the Kachin army and allied PDFs are back on the offensive, attacking junta camps in Shweku Township after a junta offensive during May and June stalled in July. Fighting raged on July 23, involving mutual drone bombing. Two helicopters were brought in to evacuate the dead and wounded. (People’s Spring 7/26) Fresh combat is reported as of July 30 in Shweku and also in Banmaw city, where junta troops are trying to break out of perimeters where the Kachin army has them confined. As usual, the junta is bombing heavily by air including civilian targets. (People’s Spring 7/30)

Karenni----------------------

An intense battle is underway in Demawso Township as Karenni defense forces resist a junta invasion. The Karenni report that the junta has been removing dead troops, but no figures are available. (People’s Spring 8/1)

Chin----------------------

Lawyers for the Chin Human Rights Organization (CHRO) filed a follow-up motion in the courts in the Philippines seeking resolution of a war crimes charge against the Burma junta originally brought in 2023 for the arson and mass murder in Thantlang town in Chin State. The Philippines has a ‘universal jurisdiction’ legal provision for war crimes. (Mizzima E 8/1) The CHRO also has a war crimes case pending against the junta in Timor Leste.

The junta reopened schools in Falam town, which it recaptured from Chin defense forces in April. The only problem was no teachers. The entire civilian population has fled, including teachers.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs, with help from the Arakan Army and Chin defense forces, have repulsed another junta thrust into Saw Township of western Magway Region, which was an attempt to invade Chin State to the immediate west. A column of 300 troops invaded starting July 16, and on July 28 the PDFs announced that they had turned it back, captured 9 prisoners of war as well as 3 truckloads of food, and seized a large haul of mortar rounds of all gauges, drone bombs, rifles, ammunition, helmets, and other equipment. (Than Lwin Khet News, Matupi Times 7/28)

In Tamu Township on the Indian border, junta troops managed to capture another village on the Asia Highway on July 29. (Zalen News 7/30) A major junta offensive has been trying to recapture that road leading to India, while PDFs have been battling to slow or halt its advance.

In the past 2 months the junta has redeployed several Russian-made Mi-35 attack helicopters and Chinese gyrocopter bombers, and sometimes some Chinese Y-8 and Y-12 propeller aircraft, to Nyaung Oo in Mandalay Region for the purpose of attacking adjacent Magway Region. On July 28 the Brave Warriors for Myanmar missile PDF fired 8 of its 107mm shock missiles at the air base in Nyaung Oo; five of them succeeded, 3 were duds. The successful ones caused explosions in the air base; damage hasn’t been quantified. (Mizzima 7/29)

PDFs attacked and overran a junta road camp on the approaches to the military capital Naypyitaw on July 25, killing 9 troops and driving out the other 21. The camp is in Myothit Township of northeastern Magway Region, which borders on Naypyitaw Region. The PDFs captured a number of weapons. (DVB E 7/27)

Terrorism----------------------

An investigation by the DVB news organization reveals that China is helping the illegal Burma regime to build a refinery to supply jet fuel for the junta’s devastating air terror campaign. The refinery is in Thanlyin Township of Yangon, and Chinese companies are supplying the engineering and design, equipment, construction, and pipelines. It is to produce jet A-1 aviation fuel, used mainly in the bombing of schools, hospitals, villages, and other civilian targets by Russian- and Chinese-supplied jet planes. This makes the Beijing communist regime complicit in the junta’s war crimes. The investigation also found that jet fuel imports more than doubled from 2024 to 2025, meaning that international sanctions by Western countries are completely ineffective. (DVB E 8/1)

The junta has escalated attacks on civilians since rebranding itself as a fake civilian government in February, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) research group. It has intensified airstrikes and ground invasions of communities, particularly in the central Anyah region of Burma, resulting in over 450 civilians killed during the first half of 2026. The junta’s fake civilian propaganda campaign has pulled in endorsements from Thailand, India, China, Russia, and Belarus. (DVB E 7/27)

Political & economic----------------------

The revolutionary coordinating body SCEF (Steering Committee for the Emergence of Federal Democracy) participated in an informational meeting with the Amercan government in Washington DC on July 24. NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung and advisor Maw Zaw Oo briefed members of Congress, policy officers, and others regarding the political situation in Burma, international criminal activities based there, and impacts of the civil war on the Southeast Asia region. Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung urged American lawmakers to demand proof that 81-year-old elected head of state Aung San Suu Kyi is still alive, something the regime has been unwilling or unable to do for more than 6 months. The meeting is a counterweight to the junta’s propaganda campaign that involves paid American lobbyists. It was organized by the Burma Research Institute, a think tank based in Maryland near Washington DC. (Maung News 7/27)

Domestically, the SCEF has been actively reaching out to engage non-member revolutionary organizations. In addition to the Arakan Army mentioned above, the SCEF held meetings with the liberation parliamentary bodies of Mandalay, Sagaing, and Magway Regions, as well as some Mon State groups and the Spring Revolution Alliance, the latter being a loose grouping of 19 fighting forces, most small and local. The SCEF is seeking to build a united and representative framework, both to coordinate the pro-democracy movement’s political and military activities, and to represent Burma’s legitimate political sector to the outside world. (People’s Spring 7/26)

Even though the regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN has reaffirmed that junta representatives will not be welcome at its summit meetings, its envoy to Burma, Filipina Foreign Secrectary Teresa Lazaro, is demonstrating a persistent misreading of the situation by declaring her intention to go on a “humanitarian mission” to Naypyitaw later this year. (People’s Spring 7/30) Such a mission has 2 fatal flaws: 1) Treating the illegal regime as a legitimate government, when it controls only about ⅓ of the country, not including where most humanitarian aid is needed; 2) Discussion of handing humanitarian assistance over to the regime that’s creating the humanitarian crisis and which weaponizes all such aid against the population. ASEAN thus has a long way to go to accurately understand the crisis and take any effective action in Burma.

A meeting of several key groups within the Spring Revolution produced a draft document on July 30 called the Common Political Agreement. The signatories are the National Unity Government (NUG), the shadow parliament (CRPH), the committee charged with drafting a new constitution (NUCC), and provincial liberation governments from Sagaing and Mandalay Regions. Among the key provisions of the agreement are a pledge to continue fighting until the eradication of the military regime rather than stop when particular provinces are free; political non-violent resolution of any internal disputes; replacing the dictatorship with a federal democratic union; rejection of the sham election and the fake “civilian government” in Naypyitaw; and representation as a bloc in the event of discussions with the military regime or any foreign powers, to prevent fragmentation of the coalition. (People’s Spring 7/30) It should be noted that the signatories are dominated by the Bamar ethnic majority, and would need buy-in from the larger ethnic minority homelands to be considered national in scope.

In addition to the scam centers in Kawthoolei described above, other crimes have multiplied as a result of the 2021 coup d’état. Opium production rose 17% in 2025 in Burma during the past year; the increase was 32% in eastern Shan State, part of the illicit drug production zone known as the Golden Triangle. The production increase comes despite reduced per-hectare yields resulting from the conditions of the war. This is from a new report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Burma is also the top exporter of illicit methamphetamine. (Mizzima E 8/1) The junta takes a cut from drug production in areas controlled by its local lackey militias, but crime has also multiplied due to a general lawlessness and diversion of police to fight the pro-democracy resistance.

The junta has banned the cross-border import of consumer products from Thailand and China. But like other regulations it imposes, the ban has turned into an opportunity for rampant corruption. Border agents in charge of enforcing the ban have been collecting bribes amounting to thousands of dollars per truckload of goods coming in. (Khit Thit Media 8/1) This mirrors the monthly bribes collected from families to exempt their young men from forced military service.

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It is increasingly clear that in the Burma conflict, foreign governments and international organizations need to make explicit which side they support, since attempting neutrality or avoiding a position tacitly supports the regime that’s causing the conflict, thus prolonging the war. The resulting problems spill over the borders, leading to regional instability, international scamming and drug trafficking, refugee streams, interruptions of resource flows, and geo-political contention among the great powers. Inaction is no longer an option, engagement is urgent.

External parties, however, balk at what seems like a dizzying array of opposition and armed groups. Which ones are legitimate? Which are involved in crime? Which are fronts for the junta or China? How is a foreign government to know with whom to interact in order to encourage peace or deliver humanitarian assistance, without playing into the junta’s hand or inadvertently supporting nefarious activities?

United Nations agencies, in particular, have cited this confusion as a justification for their continued collusion with the junta, claiming that they fear links with criminal gangs and unsupervised armed groups if they try to work with opposition forces. (They say this while providing resources to the largest criminal gang, the one in Naypyitaw.) Neighboring governments have cynically gone to the dark side, aligning their interests with the Naypyitaw regime, though they may reconsider that as the unsustainability of the regime becomes more apparent.

To facilitate ethical and effective engagement with Burma’s future leaders, here is a summarized list of the main players, classified into four categories.

1

The first category are de facto governments administering regions of the country, with civil governance infrastructure in addition to their armed forces. They are legitimate partners for purposes such as resource trade agreements or delivering humanitarian aid. They are members of Burma’s united opposition body, the Steering Committee for the Emergence of Federal Democracy or SCEF, and are active participants in the movement preparing the groundwork for a federal democratic union:

• The National Unity Government itself (NUG), which raises money and funds health and other services, and commands hundreds of local People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and special forces units, and oversees local governance bodies in central Burma

• Karen National Union (KNU), with its armed wings KNLA and KNDO, also providing a full range of civilian government services

• Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), with its armed wing KIA

• Chin National Front (CNF), with armed wings CNA and CNDF

• Karenni Interim Executive Council (IEC), with its armed components KNDF and KA

2

The second category are other active opposition forces that are not (yet) SCEF members, but whose credentials are well established. The ULA/Arakan Army is also the relevant authority for any interaction involving Arakan (formerly Rakhine State):

• United League of Arakan (ULA) with its armed wing, Arakan Army

• Mon State Defense Force (MSDF)

• New Mon State Party-Anti-Dictatorship (NMSP-AD)

• Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) and is army (PNLA)

• Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA)

• All Burma Student Defense Force (ABSDF)

3

On the opposite side is a list of small ethnic junta proxy groups that masquerade as EAOs (ethnic armed organizations), but which do not in fact represent ethnic peoples. They are often seen at junta-organized “peace” exercises, conspicuously wearing their ethnic clothing to create an illusion of inclusivity for public show. Most are also active militarily under the command of the junta:

• Shanni National Army (SNA) in the northwest

• Pa-O National Organization (PNO) in southern Shan; note the similarity in name to the Pa-O pro-democracy force;

• Democratic Karen Benevolent (or Buddhist) Army (DKBA)*

• Karen Border Guard Force (BGF)*, which also calls itself ‘Karen National Army’

• KNU/KNLA Peace Council (no relation to the KNU or KNLA)

• Kawthoolei Army (KTLA) in Karen State

• New Mon State Party (NMSP)

• National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA)

4

Last is a listing of larger militias in Shan State along or near the China border, whose actions are heavily influenced by pressure from Beijing. That makes them effectively pro-junta at the moment, but China can turn them neutral or anti-junta when its interests dictate. Left to their own, some of them market drugs rather than fight:

• United Wa State Army (UWSA)*

• Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) - ethnic Kokang/Chinese

• Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and its political wing PSLF

• Shan State Progress Party (SSPP)

• Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS)*

*Those marked with asterisks are also heavily involved in international criminal activities such as drug export and scam centers.

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Neighboring governments like India, China, and Bangladesh that intend to develop infrastructure projects that pass through Arakan will need to deal directly with the ULA, rather than defaulting to the Naypyitaw regime which doesn’t have territorial control there. This also applies to repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh into Arakan.

Should foreign governments choose to provide military support so that the atrocities could be stopped, the war ended, refugees returned home, and the economy allowed to recover, the SCEF should be the first contact. The groups and governments in the first two categories all are appropriate partners for both humanitarian and military assistance. The American government aid agency (USAID), for example, has provided humanitarian aid through the KNU government’s refugee agency (CIDKP), and international health programs have supported malaria and tuberculosis control through its health department (KDHW).

Avoiding contact with the last two categories will effectively guard against negative associations that could tarnish assistance efforts and prop up the junta. Assistance should never be delivered through Yangon, Naypyitaw, or Myawaddy, where it will fall into junta hands and be used against the population. Rather, it should be channeled across borders, through legitimate resistance groups and civil society organizations that have the connections to pass aid to the inside from Thailand, India, and Bangladesh and reach displaced populations directly.

It bears reiterating that the self-proclaimed “civilian” government in Naypyitaw is a thin veneer on a military regime whose violence has not diminished, and that the sham election of late December 2025/early 2026 was an empty charade. Any diplomatic contact with the regime legitimizes the illegal seizure of power and its maintenance by naked force, and also damages the image of a foreign government that associates itself with the regime.

This guide is provided as a service by the weekly publication Burma Coup Resistance Notes, a bulletin of news related to Burma/Myanmar’s civil war. To subscribe, use the button below:

How it’s going----------------------

In the Burma civil war, “surrender” has acquired several euphemisms that sound fair and equitable for all involved, but that actually amount to one side giving in and submitting to the other.

“Political solution” is one of these. It means resolving the war through non-military means, as in a treaty. The problems with this are that the coup regime maintains its power through purely military means - constant airstrikes and ground invasions of communities, without which it would quickly fall to the popular opposition. Also, history shows that the Burma military always - not often, but *always* - violates every treaty it signs, as soon as it can get the military upper hand. A political solution was tried during the protests after the coup attempt, but that was met with slaughter. This is necessarily a military problem, not a political one.

Another euphemism for surrender is “negotiations.” Negotiations are supposed to lead to a “compromise” (another misleading platitude) that would end the fighting. That would leave the junta in partial power. Again, history shows that the Burma regime can be depended on to wait for its moment to seize total power again, thus beginning another cycle of the familiar brutality. Negotiations with liars produce worthless agreements. A “negotiated solution” would amount to defeat for the freedom movement.

“All parties” or “all stakeholders” or “both sides” are phrases often invoked by international diplomats who fail to understand the situation. It implies parity between the war criminals perpetrating atrocities on the one hand, and the popular forces fighting to end dictatorship on the other. Lumping war criminals with freedom fighters legitimizes the former, and whitewashes the 100,000 mostly civilian deaths caused by the 2021 attempted coup, and the displacement of 4 million internal refugees driven from their homes.

“Peace process” is currently used by the junta for its call for opposition forces to come to Naypyitaw to submit to the regime by July 31. This is a regime that equates “peace” with crushing the popular opposition. Its “peace process” coincides with daily and nightly bombing of civilian areas, jailing and killing of critics, and abduction of the entire young male demographic to feed into its meat grinder war.

“Stalemate” is sometimes used by foreigners to characterize the civil war, given that neither side appears close to victory. Saying “stalemate” implies that the anti-dictatorship movement cannot win militarily and should abandon its goal of eradicating junta rule, and instead accept a “negotiated solution” or surrender. That would throw away the entire effort made thus far to reject military rule and its accompanying brutality. If the current situation is a stalemate, then a continued stalemate, however difficult, is vastly preferable to submission.

Foreigners with faint understanding of the situation might criticize the opposition forces for their inflexible insistence on total victory over the junta, rather than a compromise. What they need to understand is that there is no middle ground in this war. The junta will never accept popular rule, even if it agrees on paper to some limited version of it. This regime will use any and all forms of military firepower and repression to retain its partial rule and regain complete dominance.

It is because of the junta’s inability to compromise that it must be eliminated wholesale and replaced with a voluntary, democratic federal union. The war will necessarily continue until that is achieved, however long it takes, and regardless of any appearance of “stalemate” to foreign observers. If ASEAN, China, the United Nations, or anyone else wants the war to end, they need to see the immense difference between the two sides, and which one they must back. Insisting on “negotiations” or a “political solution” or a “peace process” will only prolong the fighting and enable the junta’s continued atrocities.

Action this week: Kawthoolei----------------------

Another junta thrust toward Palu-Minletpan failed on July 21. Troops tried to flank Karen defenses by skirting to the west of Lay Kay Kaw, but the Karen say the junta suffered heavy casualties and had to retreat again. The regime continues to bomb heavily by air. (People’s Spring 7/21) Meanwhile, the badly-mauled 55th junta division was withdrawn from Myawaddy to Pa’an on July 20, to be sent to the Arakan front after regrouping and reconditioning. It was replaced in Myawaddy by parts of other divisions. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/22)

The junta has expanded its aerial bombing around Palu-Minletpan, now affecting Kyauk Khat, about 10 km south of Minletpan. Kyauk Khat is an enclave controlled by the DKBA pro-junta splinter group, which runs a large scam center there that uses trafficked international slave labor to target victims worldwide for financial crimes. The DKBA also has a meth factory nearby. Thousands of those foreign scam workers are being urgently removed from the bombing zone to another DKBA enclave about 15 km further south in Sonseimyaing, where they are to continue their operations. (Karen News 7/25) The junta’s proxy groups in the Myawaddy area frequently move their criminal operations around to avoid international scrutiny, and to create public shows of shutting down certain locations while moving to others.

The Karen army blew up an 8-vehicle convoy carrying junta reinforcements from Kyondo toward Myawaddy on July 18, causing a truck to overturn. Karen sources say 15 troops were killed and more than 20 wounded. (Khit Thit Media 7/19)

Kachin----------------------

A quartermaster from a junta infantry battalion in Waingmaw Township absconded on July 15 with a total of 18 guns of different types, likely headed for the Kachin army. This officer was in charge of supplies including weapons. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/19)

The junta is trying to re-open a stretch of railway between Myitkyina and Mohnyin in order to ship reinforcements and supplies, but 408 sections of rail were removed by unknown parties, causing a derailment and closure of the line. (Karenni People’s Voice 7/24)

In northern Kachin State, refugees have fled the fighting in Kaunglanpu Township, and the junta is forcing all the men in the refugee camp from age 18 to 50 to join a defense force, because the junta can’t send enough reinforcements. (Kachin News Group 7/24) The Kachin army captured a junta camp along the China border there on July 13. The survival of refugees is already tenuous, and will be more so without the working age male population.

Arakan----------------------

The Arakan Army has been attacking a junta position at a key road intersection and a navy base on the outskirts of Sittwe, the state capital, only 8 km from the center of town. Fighting has been continuous since July 21. Control of the Yechanpyin intersection would cut off the junta’s land communication to the naval base on the Kaladan River. The junta is carrying out airstrikes to try to hold off the AA. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/20, People’s Spring 7/24)

Meanwhile, the junta has launched a major effort to retake the Battalion 227 camp it lost to the Arakan Army in Yeji Township of Irrawaddy Region at the beginning of July. Casualties are reportedly heavy. A junta major died of his wounds on July 23. Wounded troops, including amputees, are being evacuated by military aircraft and civilian airlines. (People’s Spring 7/24)

The terrorist airstrikes on civilian communities in Arakan continue. This week jets bombed Myauk Oo and Kyauktaw. (People’s Spring 7/20) Recently the towns of Gwa, Ponnajun, and Minbya were also bombed.

Chin----------------------

The junta is still unsuccessful in getting into southern Chin State. After being beaten back from Kanpetlet this month, troops tried to approach through Hteelin town in Magway Region, but that place is controlled by PDFs allied to the Chin. On July 20 the PDFs attacked a column of 200 troops in Saw Township. After a day of fighting, the junta troops retreated. (People’s Spring 7/20) The junta is bombing what it can’t have, dropping over 100 bombs by air in Mindat Township the morning of July 24. (Mandalay Free Press 7/24)

Regrouping, a 400-troop column is now attempting to get into southern Chin State through Saw, also in Magway Region, but has not yet reached Saw. A total of 1,000 junta troops of the junta’s 99th Division have been mobilized to attack southern Chin State, without success so far. (People’s Spring 7/25)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

Following months of battles with PDFs in northern Sagaing Region and new outbreaks of fighting in adjacent northern Mandalay Region, convoys totaling 80 trucks withdrew about 200 troops of the junta’s 33rd Division from Mawlu and Indaw Townships between July 18 and 22. They retreated to Mandalay city. Before leaving, the troops poisoned water and food supplies used by civilians. CDM military analysts theorize that the junta is preparing an offensive elsewhere, and doesn’t have sufficient forces to hold this zone simultaneously. (People’s Spring 7/25)

PDFs attacked junta troops in Padaung Township of far western Bago Region on July 25, killing 10 of them including a commander and forcing the column to retreat. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/25) Padaung is home to junta weapons factories that are the target of Arakan Army attacks.

A gang of 50 junta troops was kidnapping civilians in Ye Oo Township of Sagaing Region, including young men for forced military service, when PDFs attacked, freeing 7 captives on July 17. Three days later on July 20 the PDFs attacked again, wounding an unknown number of the troops and forcing them to retreat, having only abducted 1 young man. The PDFs say it’s hard to know the number of wounded troops because they are no longer taken to hospital, but treated in the field, and those who die are buried on the spot. (Maung News 7/21)

A viral video shows a plain-clothes PDF soldier getting off a motorcycle, entering a guard hut at the entrance to a camp/village of the pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militia, shooting dead a Pyu guard in the hut, and emerging with his junta-issue rifle. This happened July 24 in Kantbalu Township of northern Sagaing Region, which has a particularly high number of Pyu camps. (Myaelatt Athan 7/24) The spread of the video may inspire copycats around the country, and is likely to inflame the junta to retaliate against civilians. (https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1NicM6eaFh/)

Chinese interference----------------------

Under intense pressure from China, the defeated Ta’ang ethnic homeland force has again buckled and collaborated with its erstwhile enemy, the Naypyitaw junta. A Ta’ang army representative has been in Naypyitaw for negotiations with the regime under the latter’s “100 day peace plan.” (Mizzima 7/20) The Ta’ang claim that they were there to request from the junta a demarcated Ta’ang State, whereas the junta currently lumps Ta’angland inside Shan State. The request implies Ta’ang recognition of the junta’s authority over the area, contradicting their earlier rejection of junta rule during Operation 10/27, and before their 2025 defeat by a combined Beijing-Naypyitaw effort. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/21) The regime responded that the statehood request would have to be deflected to the junta “parliament,” an unelected rubber stamp body. (People’s Spring 7/22)

After the Ta’ang, representatives of the Kokang and Wa ethnic entities are reported to be on their way to Naypyitaw for the fake peace process after heavy intervention by their Chinese supervisors. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/24)

After losing about half of their 2023-24 territorial gains from Operation 10/27 during the junta’s 2025 surge, the Ta’ang were forced into discussions with the junta by China in 2025. On China’s demand, the Ta’ang returned still more territory to the junta. The Ta’ang are in northwest Shan State near the China border, between the Kokang to the east and the Kachin to the west.

Titular junta army chief Ye Win Oo held a meeting on July 22 with Chinese ambassador Ma Jia to request Chinese technical help in counter-drone warfare and surveillance of private communications. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/25) China has already provided a great deal of equipment and technical know-how in drone warfare and surveillance to its puppet regime in Naypyitaw, but resistance forces have been adopting new drone technology from Ukraine and inventing their own.

In another matter, China has been trying to censor a film called “Blood Copper”, which describes human rights abuses associated with the Chinese-owned Wangbao copper mine in Salinji Township of Sagaing Region. The Chinese embassy put pressure on the Thai government to ban the showing of the film, but Thailand refused. (DVB E 7/20) This is part of the Beijing regime’s efforts to silence its critics worldwide.

Terrorism----------------------

Junta troops abducted, tortured, and murdered 3 young men who were leaders of a charity that supports internal refugees in Nabule, north of Tavoy city in Kawthoolei’s Mergui-Tavoy District. They were kidnapped on July 9 and killed about a week later. (People’s Spring 7/22)

As an illustration of the forced military recruitment campaign, pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militia men in blue costumes in Kalay town in western Sagaing Region are sealing off neighborhoods and then invading homes and stopping travelers, abducting young men, who are then forced into 3-month army training before being sent to the front lines. If the men resist, they are beaten. The kidnappers tend to focus on high-traffic areas of town. (Maung News 7/23)

Likewise, the junta advertised in Yangon for construction jobs in Mandalay to attract young men, then grabbed them from the train when they went. (Khit Thit Media 7/24) Now it is warning affluent condominium dwellers in Yangon in a July 17 letter that young men will have to join the military, or pay 100,000 kyats per month in bribes. (People’s Spring 7/24)

Junta troops have been burning and destroying an ancient cultural heritage site in Chauk Township of Mandalay Region, just south of the famous ancient temple city and tourist attraction of Bagan. The village is home to numerous temples from the imperial period, and also has a current population, which has had to flee. (People’s Spring 7/25)

Political & economic----------------------

The Thai military regime, having failed to get its Burma counterpart restored to good standing in the regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN, invited Burma dictator Min Aung Hlaing to Bangkok for a bilateral meeting Aug. 6-7. (DVB E 7/22) Junta troops have repeatedly bombed Thai territory in Tak Province in the course of battling the Karen army along that border. In trying to raise the status of the Burma dictator, however, Thailand Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul may have instead lowered his own. His invitation to Min Aung Hlaing has drawn condemnation internationally and tarnished his reputation. He is rejecting the criticism. (People’s Spring 7/23)

A grouping of 225 civil society groups in Burma signed a July 17 letter to the SpaceX company to stop turning off Starlink satellite dishes in Burma, a country in which Starlink isn’t licensed to operate, but where tens of thousands of dishes registered in other countries operate on roaming service. On July 2 the company began disconnecting thousands of dishes in Burma following pressure by the American government to stop their use by international scam operations. Starlink is also the only means of communication by educational, private, military, and government services in most liberated areas, where the junta’s wireless networks don’t operate. Starlink is used by over 6,000 schools run by the National Unity Government and ethnic homeland governments. About 20% of Starlink dishes have been disconnected. (DVB E 7/19)

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How it’s going----------------------

There are more indications this week that the junta’s military is again running out of manpower, despite its massive forced recruitment campaign. Those new conscripts are sent to the front lines immediately as they finish their training, without experience, many without weapons, and without any will to fight. Those are not enough, however, so the regime is now sending police and civilian militia into battle as well. Despite pumping maximum manpower into the Arakan and Irrawaddy front, the junta continues to lose ground there. Those new troops run away, no longer in ones and twos, but now in double-digit groups of conscripts who never had any intention of fighting.

The forced recruitment campaign began over 2 years ago in February 2024, and has been rounding up young men at a rate of about 5,000 per month, amounting to over 120,000 total. That’s a huge influx of new troops. The numbers are deceptive, however, since many are not given weapons, and none are qualified to fight seasoned ethnic and PDF battalions. Starting during training and continuing after they reach the front lines, these new troops begin running away. Those who don’t, suffer death and injury at such rates that very few remain at the end of their 2 year service. Somehow the junta has managed to squander its great influx of new personnel and is again facing a deficit.

Manpower shortage is what led to the Spring Revolution’s gathering momentum during 2023 and 2024. After suffering setbacks during the junta’s surge in 2025 and early 2026, the pro-democracy forces now show signs of turning the tide again as the junta flails and scrounges for warm bodies to fill its bunkers and convoys.

Kawthoolei----------------------

In a major development in the 9-month battle along the Thai border south of Myawaddy, on July 16 a junta column augmented by militants from the BGF and DKBA pro-junta splinter groups marched on Ye Kone near Lay Kay Kaw, 10 km south of Myawaddy city. The Karen army retreated, and the junta forces entered the village. It was a trap. The waiting Karen Cobra Column then opened fire, killing at 20-30 junta troops (reports differ) including the junta deputy commander and a BGF company commander, and “destroying the entire column.” Four prisoners were taken alive, all unwilling forced recruits. The Karen captured weapons, ammunition, a drone jammer, and other gear. The number of troops in the junta column isn’t clear; a figure of 200 is mentioned. (People’s Spring 7/16)

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army mounted a surprise attack that resulted in the capture of 3 junta camps in Kaunglanpu Township, in northern Kachin on the China border, from July 10 to 13. At least 20 junta troops were killed and the rest ran away, leaving about 20 weapons, according to Kachin army sources. (People’s Spring 7/12) The achin already controlled most of the Kachin-China border, but the northern end has been the exception.

On July 17 the Kachin retook 2 more camps in Indawgyi Township that it had lost during the junta surge in June. Casualties aren’t quantified, but injured troops were evacuated to the junta’s hospital in the state capital Myitkyina.

Chin----------------------

Another junta invasion of southern Chin State failed on July 12. A mass of 400 junta troops entered Chin State from Pauk Township in adjacent Magway Region and were met by Chin defense forces. During the battle, 22 junta troops surrendered, of whom 13 had weapons that they handed over to the Chin; 9 were unarmed. Reports aren’t clear about casualties. The column had to retreat. (People’s Spring 7/13)

On July 16 junta propaganda channels announced that it had retaken full control of Tantlan town from Chin forces, but a Chin military spokesman dismissed that claim, saying the junta troops are hunkered in a base and only come out to take some selfies in front of prominent locations before returning. The entire town is in ruins after repeated junta bombing and arson since 2021, and all residents have moved elsewhere. (The Irrawaddy E 7/17)

Arakan----------------------

After a one-week hiatus in the fighting due to heavy rains and flooding, the Arakan Army has resumed its attack on the Kyauk Phyu and Sittwe coastal junta enclaves. That Kyaukphyu battle has been characterized by high rates of junta casualties, defections, and surrenders. In a sign of the junta’s defensive posture, two of its gyrocopters bombed a key bridge along the road leading from the mainland on July 14, to prevent the AA bringing troops and supplies. The AA says it has other ways to get there. (People’s Spring 7/15) If the junta were in a position of strength, it would want that bridge open.

The Arakan Army is called the “most effective insurgent force in Myanmar” in a July 16 report by the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based anti-autocracy think tank that usually reports on behind-the-scenes maneuvering by Russia, China, and other dictatorships. The foundation says that in addition to controlling almost of all of Arakan militarily, its political wing (ULA) has set up effective civilian governance, and its control of strategic corridors of importance to China and India gives the 40,000-strong AA great geo-political leverage. (Jamestown Foundation 7/16, Western New 7/17 jamestown.org/arakan-army-becomes-most-effective-insurgent-force-in-myanmar/) The report makes no mention of the AA’s problematic treatment of the Rohingya minority in Arakan.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

The junta has made a great show of retaking control of northern Sagaing Region during the past 2 months, invading towns in Kathah, Htee Chaing, Indaw, Mawlu, and Kawlin Townships. In reality, the PDFs remain in control of most of the countryside and the roads, with the exception of a few main roads leading to the towns. In the locations they have invaded, junta troops have had to hunker down in defensive positions, prevented from expanding their footprint into the countryside by the counter-attacks of the PDFs. Revolution military sources speak of high junta casualties, and the regime has resorted to bombing from the air and firing mortars from its entrenched positions. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/14)

PDFs suddenly staged 2 attacks in an area that was considered under consolidated junta control. They attacked junta camps in Maddaya and Sinku Townships in northern Mandalay Region, an area where regime forces drove out the Mandalay PDF almost completely during 2025, after the MPDF had taken over most of it during Operation 10/27 in 2023-24. These 2 attacks occurred June 27 but news only emerged on July 13. The PDFs say 11 junta troops were killed at the Maddaya camp and 4 more in Sinku, and others ran away. (Maung New 7/13)

Sagaing Region PDFs continue their attacks on a supply flotilla of 22 boats moving up the Chindwin River. On July 7 they sent kamikaze FPV drones that caused explosions aboard 3 boats as they passed through Kani Township, and furnished videos. The PDFs say they killed upwards of 20 troops out of the 250 on the boats, including officers. They also captured some weapons, a drone jammer, a mine detector, and property stolen from civilians, implying that some of the troops were ashore, but details aren’t clear. (Mandalay Free Press 7/13)

On July 14 one of those junta supply boats with 24 troops on board sank, killing 20 of those troops including an officer. The cause in this case wasn’t PDF drones, but incompetence. It was a small boat overloaded with cement and fuel, and when it maneuvered too close to a larger military ship while approaching a dock, the small boat was swept under the larger one and capsized. The entire cargo was lost as well as the troops. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/15)

Then the next day, PDFs in Mawlaik Township attacked again using rocket-propelled grenades and small arms, sinking a boat and capturing another one full of supplies. Two other boats were damaged. (People’s Spring 7/17)

After a column of junta troops and police captured 17 PDF soldiers in Pauk Township of Magway Region last week and then massacred them, other PDFs counter-attacked that same column as it entered Seikphyu Township on July 15, killing 5 police and wounding 7. The attacks will continue. (Mizzima 7/16)

National Unity Government (NUG)----------------------

NUG Health Minister Daw Shwe Pon says the NUG has built 10 bomb-proof underground hospitals around Burma in the past 2 years. Some are already functional, others are waiting for equipment. The hospitals are funded with international donations, including contributions by overseas Burma citizens. (Mizzima 7/17)

Terrorism----------------------

When the junta supply flotilla described above docked at Kalaywa, Sagaing Region on July 10, the troops from the ships went on a shoreside rampage. They drank in bars without paying, stole liquor, then kidnapped some women to a football pitch where they gang-raped them so violently that some had to be hospitalized. A PDF in Paungpyin, upriver from Kalaywa, then advised all civilians to evacuate the riverbank area in advance of the boats’ arrival. (Khit Thit Media 7/16)

Junta operatives kidnapped at least 180 young men in Monywa Township during the week July 9-14 and took them to the northwest regional command HQ for induction into the coup army. (People’s Spring 7/16) This is a typical example of the ongoing forced recruitment campaign.

The junta sponsored a mass-viewing party in a stadium in Yangon for the final matches of the FIFA World Cup of football, with a giant LED screen, food vendors, and other elements of a festive event. Young people feared to attend, however, lest they be kidnapped for military service, as the junta has done at other holiday festivals and gatherings. Since youth are the main demographic of such an event, the World Cup party was a flop in terms of attendance. There was also a boycott due to the broadcast contract awarded by the notoriously corrupt FIFA to the junta-owned Mytel communications company. (DVB E 7/17)

Junta decline----------------------

Due to heavy and continuous troop losses on the Arakan and Irrawaddy fronts, the junta is now shipping police and civilian Pyu Saw Htee militia members to the front lines there. In addition, the junta has been encouraging civilians to form local defense militias, supposedly for the protection of their communities, but it then conscripts these local militias and sends them to the battle front as well. (Maung News 7/14)

Chinese interference----------------------

China has been pressuring northern Shan ethnic armies again, this time to make them sign on to the Naypyitaw regime’s fake “100 day peace process.” In April, dictator Min Aung Hlaing declared that resistance forces needed to join in a reconciliation with the regime, setting a deadline of July 31. None of them has accepted (other than several small junta-controlled splinter groups), regarding the proposal as a farce and a trap. China, however, wants its proxy forces inside Burma to join this process. At least one, the Kokang army (MNDAA), is refusing, according to a Kokang source, in a refreshing show of autonomy from Beijing’s Burma domination. China is also leaning on the Ta’ang, northern Shan (SSPP), and Wa ethnic armies to join the charade; no word yet as to their willingness. (The Irrawaddy E 7/13) In effect, the junta is proposing that the ethnic armies surrender, since it will expect all the concessions to come from them and will make none of its own, hence their refusal to have anything to do with this process.

On the other hand, some unofficial reports say the Kokang are preparing to hand back yet more territory to the junta after another meeting with the Chinese in Kunming, China. In question is the city of Theinni/Hsenwi, 50 km southwest of Lashio, which the Kokang were forced to give back in April 2025. (Mekong News 7/15) This would be another major retreat by the Kokang, caused not by any strength of the junta, but by Chinese pressure alone.

Political & economic----------------------

At Thailand’s instigation, foreign ministers of the regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN met in Bangkok on July 12 with a representative of Burma’s illegal coup plotters, ostensibly to find a solution to the country’s civil war. During the meeting, ASEAN restated its insistence on the Burma coup regime’s adoption of the ASEAN 5 peace principles, which include cessation of violence, release of all political prisoners including 81-year-old elected head of state Aung San Suu Kyi, dialogue that includes all stakeholders, and allowing the distribution of humanitarian aid in all areas of Burma including those controlled by resistance forces. ASEAN requested once again permission to visit with Aung San Suu Kyi. (DVB E 7/13)

The coup regime refused, again, and rejected the request for a visit with Aung San Suu Kyi, of whom the regime will not even provide proof that she is still alive. (People’s Spring 7/13) Thus, Thailand’s effort to legitimize the Burma regime was foiled by the regime itself.

ASEAN’s five-point plan for Burma, first proposed in 2021, is considered too weak to be relevant by the country’s pro-democracy movement because it would leave the brutal regime in power. At the same time, the five points are utterly unacceptable to the military junta because they would undermine its system of absolute authoritarian control, of which the daily bombing and jailing of dissidents are integral parts.

After the main meeting, ASEAN special envoy for Myanmar and Philippine Foreign Minister Maria Theresa Lazaro then had an on-line meeting with Zin Mar Aung, Foreign Minister of the National Unity Government. The NUG said that only by meeting with the anti-dictatorship forces can ASEAN understand the real situation in Burma. (DVB E 7/16)

Special representative Lazaro also held separate meetings with 3 ethnic armies of the Spring Revolution as well as 2 groups co-opted by the junta. She met with the Kawthoolei government (KNU), a Karenni defense force (KNPP - but not the Karenni government IEC), the Chin National Front, all 3 of which are members of the revolutionary coalition SCEF. Lazaro also met with the NMSP, a tiny pro-junta ethnic Mon committee, and the southern Shan armed drug cartel RCSS. The subjects discussed weren’t reported, but are presumed to have focused on distribution of humanitarian aid. (Myanmar Now 7/14)

The choice of these 5 groups to meet with is baffling, as if Lazaro, like other not-very-observant foreign diplomats, can’t tell the difference between legitimate members of the pro-democracy coalition and other groups that are irrelevantly small, are junta lackeys, or that primarily engage in criminal activities. (Mizzima 7/15)

The Steering Committee for the Emergence of Federal Democracy (SCEF), which includes the NUG and key ethnic homeland governments of the Spring Revolution, pointed out publicly that it did *not* meet with any junta representatives, and said discussions for their own sake are pointless when the junta continues to perpetrate terrorist violence on the civilian population. (SCEF 7/15)

After the foreign ministers’ meeting generated significant blow-back internationally and from Burma pro-democracy movement, the Thai foreign minister made a point of demanding to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi, and ASEAN barred the illegal regime’s so-called “foreign minister” from future ASEAN meetings. (Khit Thit Media 7/17)

On a related subject, Thai immigration statistics show that almost 700,000 Burma citizens entered Thailand through legal crossings from January to April 2026. The reasons given include fleeing forced military recruitment, a national economy devastated by the 2021 coup and resulting civil war, and the 2025 earthquake. These figures don’t include clandestine border crossers, whose numbers can’t be tracked but who are frequently rounded up by Thai border forces if they are caught. There were already over 4 million Burma citizens living and working in Thailand. (The Thaiger 7/5))

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How it’s going----------------------

The illegal regime’s propaganda campaign found some gullible Singapore journalists to echo its sales pitch for normalization this week. The Straits Times published an article that quotes a total of one resistance soldier, one ill-informed analyst in London, and cherry-picked comments from the National Unity Government Foreign Minister, to spin the civil war to the regime’s advantage. The article, titled “Myanmar’s pro-democracy revolution weakens five years on,” qualifies as fake news, and suggests that other governments might as well embrace the genocidal regime, citing as evidence the phony “election,” the dictator’s fictional 100-day “peace plan,” and the equally empty claim of a transfer from prison to house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi, who has most likely died in junta custody. The Straits Times minimizes the pro-democracy forces, which have in fact shown no let-up in their fight against the dictatorship.

Two writers for the Channel News Agency, also in Singapore, uncritically repeated the Thai military regime’s arguments for legitimizing the Burma junta. Without setting foot in Burma, they quoted Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow’s take that the fake election and dictator Min Aung Hlaing crowning himself “president” somehow reduced the daily terror being perpetrated by the desperate regime, thereby rendering it eligible for treatment as Burma’s “government.”

The ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights group published a warning article titled “ASEAN Must Not Fall into the Junta’s Trap” (July 11)

No credible journalists outside of Singapore have fallen for the charade going on in Naypyitaw, but the danger of fake news is that it can get repeated and relayed around the internet until someone, somewhere thinks it’s real. The Straits Times piece has already been reprinted by Frontier Myanmar, an English-language publication ostensibly based in Yangon but actually operated from Bangkok in Thailand by a regime ally.

Just to clarify, not a single one of the resistance forces is considering surrendering to life under dictatorship, and the fight goes on as the junta’s would-be resurgence shows signs of passing its peak. ASEAN foreign ministers can hold all the meetings they want, but since the pro-democracy fight receives no foreign support, it also listens to no foreign masters.

Kawthoolei----------------------

An estimated 1,000 junta troops began a renewed attack on Karen defenses south of Myawaddy city in Dooplaya District the evening of July 7, shelling Karen positions all night at Palu and Minletpan from the KK Park scam compound, which is guarded by the pro-junta DKBA splinter group. Some shells are again falling across the Thu Mwe River in Thailand. By July 10 the Karen say over 100 junta troops had died and “hundreds” wounded, including officers, and the the rest fell back and regrouped for another attempt. The junta has been unsuccessfully attacking Palu/Minletpan for 2 months. (Than Lwin Khet News 7/8, Maung News 7/10, People’s Spring 7/11)

In Doo Tha Htoo District, a column of junta troops went out on July 5 to raid a Kawthoolei government trade gate camp in Bilin Township and confiscate consumer goods imported from Thailand, and was confronted by Karen army Brigade 1. The junta has banned Thai imports, which form a large proportion of the consumer market in Burma, but Kawthoolei does a bustling cross-border trade in Thai goods, which yields tax revenues for its government (KNU). The Karen destroyed all 3 vehicles used by the troops and inflicted an unknown number of casualties. Two days later the junta troops regrouped and returned, seizing 30 private commercial transport vehicles, stealing some of the Thai goods and burning the rest. (Than Lwin Times 7/9)

Arakan----------------------

After capturing 3 junta camps in Yeji Township of Irrawaddy Region during the 3rd week of June, the Arakan Army captured 2 more on July 2 and 3. The junta continues to ship in reinforcements in the form of raw recruits to attack the AA, and continues to lose ground nonetheless. Along with the 2 camps, the AA seized a number of weapons. There were photos of junta corpses, but casualty figures aren’t given. (Maung News 7/5)

Following that battle, AA forces chased fleeing junta troops in Yeji Township, capturing more weapons and finding more dead bodies in the succeeding days. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/7)

Junta warships shelled coastal areas in Gwa Township, in southern Arakan, with over 80 artillery rounds on July 10, killing at least 6 civilians including 2 children. (DVB E 7/10)

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army has retaken several positions that it lost during the junta’s big offensive in Shweku Township during May and June. They are along the main highway leading toward both Mandalay to the south and Banmaw to the east. The junta column has had to retreat after attempting to fight its way from Shweku toward Kachin’s 2nd city Banmaw. (Kachin News Group 7/7) This is further evidence of the failure of that offensive, whose momentum had already stalled by the end of June.

The junta fought hard to regain control of the Mandalay-Myitkyina highway in April and May. Now fighting with the Kachin army has closed it again, stranding traffic going both directions. The resulting delays are taking a heavy economic toll on commerce. Truckloads of vegetables and other perishables are spoiling, prompting truckers and merchants to try to sell whatever they can, for whatever price, to people along the road. Truckloads of rotten onions, fish, and dead chickens are causing a withering stench. (Mizzima 7/9)

Fighting has broken out in Homalin Township on the Sagaing boundary starting July 7. No results are in yet. (People’s Spring 7/9)

Karenni----------------------

The junta is still trying to capture Nanmeikone village between Mobye and Loikaw, which is held by Karenni defense forces. Troops based in Mobye have been using the “human wave strategy,” otherwise known as the meat-grinder, from July 6 to 8, to try to overwhelm Karenni defenses. This tactic throws masses of recent forced recruits against defensive fire, leading to high casualty rates. The Karenni have captured some weapons, and are bombing the junta troops with drones. The junta, meanwhile, has been bombing refugee camps. (Mekong News 7/9)

Karenni defense forces attacked a junta outpost in southern Demawso Township on July 6, where 20 to 30 junta troops were stationed. The outcome isn’t reported, other than one Karenni soldier killed, but the significance is that the Karenni are again beginning offensive actions after about a year of being pushed steadily backward by a renewed junta invasion in 2025. (People’s Spring 7/7)

In Mobye Township, to the north of the capital Loikaw, Karenni defense forces attacked a junta column that is invading villages over a 3-day period July 6-8. The Karenni say they inflicted casualties and captured some weapons, but figures aren’t given. (Khit Thit Media 7/8)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

Naypyitaw PDFs attacked junta positions a short distance both north and south of Taungoo city in Kawthoolei’s Taw Oo District on July 6. This is important because the locations are along the Yangon-Mandalay Expressway, potentially disrupting the junta’s ability to move along that corridor. There were casualties on both sides and the PDFs called for reinforcements, but more detail than that hasn’t been disclosed. (People’s Spring 7/6) Taungoo is also home to a key junta air base used to attack the entire southeast of Burma.

Four shock missiles struck junta-controlled Lashio city, capital of northern Shan State, on July 9, but who fired them still isn’t known. One of the missiles hit the junta’s northeast command HQ, but the others fell randomly in civilian areas, which is unlike the specialized missile PDFs like Brave Warriors for Myanmar. A woman was killed in her home. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/10) Under intense Chinese pressure, the Kokang army returned Lashio to junta control in April 2025, and Chinese government representatives have been seen giving orders there.

A junta offensive in northern Sagaing Region has forced PDFs to evacuate some camps in Kathah, Indaw, and Mawlu Townships during the first week of July. The PDFs are fighting defensive battles in that area against junta columns invading from 2 directions, Indaw and Kawlin/Wuntho, which are using kidnapped civilians as human shields. There have been casualties on both sides, including junta officers. (People’s Spring 7/5)

On July 6, PDFs in Kani Township of Sagaing Region detonated aquatic mines against a flotilla of 42 boats ascending the Chindwin River with supplies and ammunition for junta troops. Damage isn’t reported. The junta has been bombing riverbank villages to try to discourage PDF attacks, driving over 15,000 civilians from their homes. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/8)

Four or five mortar shells fired by junta forces in Tamu Township of Sagaing Region exploded near a village on the Indian side of the border on July 3. The Indian military fired back. There were no casualties. The junta is fighting PDFs in an effort to regain control of the Asia Highway between Tamu and the recently-recaptured Kampat town, both on the border. (Zalen News 7/6)

The large Mandalay PDF announced that it will be back in action against the junta, alongside its Spring Revolution allies. This follows a period of about 4 months during which the MPDF was recovering from setbacks suffered when the junta drove it from northern Mandalay Region in 2025, followed by several instances of infiltrators and traitors being purged from its ranks. The dormancy interval included retraining and reorganization. (People’s Spring 7/8)

Chinese interference----------------------

The Burma junta issued an internal order on June 21, leaked to the media on July 5, mobilizing “reserve forces” in 13 townships of northern Shan State, to counter recent mobilizations by 3 ethnic armies, the Kokang, Wa, and Ta’ang (known as the MNDAA, UWSA, and TNLA, respectively.) These “reserves” are to be made up of government staff and their families between the ages of 18 and 60, according to the leaked memo. (Mekong News, Khit Thit Media 7/5)

All 3 of these ethnic armies are under the heavy influence of China, which also supports and influences the junta itself. The fact that the junta is worried about them suggests that China is continuing its traditional Burma strategy of playing the various sides against each other in order to benefit from the resulting instability. China forced the Ta’ang and Kokang to stop fighting the junta and return territory to it during 2025, but Beijing can easily reactivate them again. China has held the Wa aloof from the entire civil war.

As for “reserves,” the junta has none, and its divisions are all off in other parts of the country, getting mauled in major offensives that are bogging down. Mobilizing civilian staff and family members up to age 60 smacks of desperation. Of the 13 townships named, much of the territory is controlled by the ethnic armies rather than the junta.

China’s neo-colonial exploits in Burma are spilling over into Thailand, where citizens have been protesting in front of the Chinese embassy in Bangkok regarding toxic levels of arsenic in the Salween, Mekong, and other Thailand rivers downstream from Chinese-owned mines in Burma’s Shan State. The embassy has rejected the charge that Chinese enterprises are at fault. (Karen News 7/10)

Terrorism----------------------

Junta propaganda channels are claiming that its troops counter-ambushed a PDF that was laying in wait for one of its columns in Chauk Township of Magway Region on July 10, killing 3 PDF soldiers and capturing 17 alive. The troops then proceeded to murder all 17 of them, according to the propaganda report. A photo of 20 bodies is included. (Maung News 7/11) While the report may be true, no junta media reports are to be taken seriously until corroborated by independent sources, since the junta cranks out a large and consistent volume of fake news. It is true that the junta holds no prisoners of war, but kills all captive enemies.

Junta troops and their local lackeys tortured 9 people to death in Pauk Township of Magway Region, burning 2 of them alive. Two of the victims were captured PDF soldiers. It isn’t clear when this took place; the murders were revealed when PDFs overran and captured a camp of the pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militia. The junta had kidnapped 17 people, and of those not murdered, 6 were ransomed back to their families, while the other 2 were kept as slaves. (People’s Spring 7/6)

On the evening of July 8 a priest was carrying out a religious ritual in a Christian temple in Mokaung Township of Kachin State with 6 women and 2 young children, while some youths were playing sports (t’kraw) outside. A gang of thugs from the pro-junta SNA militia burst in and took them all hostage, along with a temple maintenance officer and some random passers-by, 30 people in all. They beat the maintenance officer. Twelve were released on July 10, the rest remain missing. (Kachin News Group 7/9)

The Russian regime of Vladimir Putin continues to aid and abet the Burma junta’s terror campaign. At least 3 Russian aircraft have landed in the military capital Naypyitaw to conduct a training of junta officers and troops from July 4 to 15. The planes also delivered unspecified supplies to the regime. During May, also, Russian planes and military advisors arrived in support of the regime. (Khit Thit Media 7/8) Russian aid in general is not provided for free; Russia is a vendor to the Naypyitaw junta, selling it aircraft, spare parts, radar, and other military hardware.

Iran continues to supply aviation fuel and other petroleum products for the junta’s air terror campaign, despite international sanctions. The transactions pass through companies owned by regime cronies, in collusion with firms in Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere. The fuel is transshipped through 3rd countries to disguise its origin. (Maung News 7/9)

Junta decline----------------------

As the junta again begins to feel a manpower shortage in its armed militancy, it is stepping up its forced recruitment efforts. In Mon State, whose administration is particularly loyal to the military regime, that has meant registering all young men for military service. The result is an accelerating exodus of young men to Thailand, Malaysia, and elsewhere. The absence of workers in this demographic is negatively impacting the local economy. (Than Lwin Times 7/7) This phenomenon affects many other junta-controlled regions including the big cities of Yangon and Mandalay, where young men avoid going out after dark or attending festivals due to the possibility of being kidnapped for military service, which carries a high likelihood of death or injury in battle.

Troops are raiding hotels and even Buddhist monasteries in an effort to scrape together more forced recruits, dragging away young guests and monks for military service. (People’s Spring 7/8)

There are also widespread accusations that the junta’s kidnapping net is taking in thousands of minors under the age of 18, which junta propaganda is denying. (Khit Thit Media 7/7)

Another sign of the junta’s desperate personnel situation is its ban on government staff holding passports, to prevent them leaving the country. Some staff have apparently used back-channels to avoid the ban and obtain passports, but in a leaked July 4 memo the regime ordered all such passports returned. It has used civilian departmental staff and their families as reserve militia. (Khit Thit Media 7/11)

By the regime’s own admission via its propaganda media, and backed by a video, a large explosion took place inside its No. 16 weapons factory in Padaung Township of western Bago Region on June 30, killing a technician and wounding 3 others. The cause of the explosion and the extent of the damage aren’t specified, but it set off a fire. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/10) This factory produces explosives for bombs and ammunition, and the Arakan Army has been attacking nearby for several months.

Political & economic----------------------

After the American government ramped up talk of a crackdown on the borderland scam centers in Burma, the Starlink company recently disabled thousands of its satellite dishes operating in Burma, most of which were purchased outside the country and imported informally. The scam centers are known to use many thousands of Starlink dishes, since Thai telecommunications companies cut off their cross-border wifi service under pressure from the Chinese government. Unfortunately, Starlink is also widely used by resistance military units and by civilians in liberated areas, some of whom have lost their internet access as a result of the crackdown. Now, the National Unity Government Ministry of Communications is acting as an intermediary to restore service to legitimate non-scam Starlink users. It is collecting user data in order to notify the company. Some users have regained their internet access. (Mizzima B 7/6) Starlink has been a game-changer in this war, helping the resistance overcome blackouts of traditional phone networks and internet service by the junta.

Burma’s National Unity Government has been trying to counter the junta’s normalization drive in international diplomatic circles. Its UN representative, U Kyaw Moe Tun, has been calling for an international arrest warrant for dictator Min Aung Hlaing on war crimes charges, and a UN intervention under the Responsibility to Protect clause of the UN charter. For its part, the junta has been trying to leverage Chinese influence to replace U Kyaw Moe Tun, who represents Burma’s legitimate democratically-elected government, with a regime mouthpiece.

The pro-dictatorship faction within Southeast Asia’s regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN is forging ahead with efforts to legitimize the illegal Naypyitaw regime. Foreign ministers of Thailand and Malaysia called for “dialogue” and a “negotiated solution” in Burma’s civil war during a July 10 press conference, and a regime representative will be allowed to attend an ASEAN foreign ministers’ conference in Bangkok on July 12. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/10) “Negotiated solution” is code for surrender by the pro-democracy movement, since it would leave the dictatorship in power, and the Burma military has never honored a single agreement it ever signed, using treaties as cover for renewed power grabbing.

The National Unity Government held a press conference in Mae Sot, Thailand, on the border with Kawthoolei, on July 8 where it unveiled a draft post-junta government charter it is calling “Articles of Federal Transitional Arrangements.” It is a working document made available for modification by ethnic homeland governments, provincial governance councils, and other constituent members of the emerging federal democratic union. (DVB E 7/8)

An American advocacy organization called the National Endowment for Democracy chose to honor the organizers of Burma’s Spring Revolution against the 2021 attempted military coup. On July 8 the NED announced that it will present the 2026 Democracy Award to a revolutionary representative living in America, Nan Lin. (NED 7/8)

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How it’s going----------------------

It’s happening again - the military regime gathered its resources and launched several major offensives in different parts of Burma. Initially they made a lot of headway, barreling through northern Chin State and retaking Falam town and several other locations, pushing the Kachin out of northern Sagaing, retaking the Mandalay-Myitkyina highway and invading Kachin’s Shweku Township, pushing deep into Hpasaung in Karenni State, recapturing the Asia Highway in Kawthoolei.

Then things began to fizzle, again. This is a recurring pattern.

The junta’s latest advances were possible due to China’s help and over a hundred thousand newly-recruited (or kidnapped) conscripts. Though these new troops are prone to surrender, running away, and inordinate death and injury in battle, the sheer number of them could force the much smaller resistance forces backward to avoid getting surrounded. China’s suicide drones have made the war more dangerous for resistance forces, and its pressure on the northern ethnic armies to stop fighting allowed the junta to redeploy its divisions against the PDFs and ethnic armies elsewhere.

But we are now seeing the limitations of Chinese interference and mass recruitment. A big campaign to invade southern Chin State, and perhaps Arakan State behind it, has been blunted by tenacious Chin resistance that may have killed several hundred junta troops and forced the regime to fall back. Similarly, a drive by 2,000 troops from Shweku in Kachin State toward Banmaw has not been able to make any headway in a month, and a similar effort to reassert control at the Thai border has been frustrated by the Karen army. Against the Arakan Army, the junta’s campaigns never had any effect other than the loss of thousands of troops killed and wounded.

What new tricks does the regime still have in reserve, now that playing these has not brought victory? The Arakan administration is behaving more and more like an independent country. The resistance is benefiting from Ukrainian and other technological input in order to neutralize some of the junta’s firepower advantages. While governments of the world’s authoritarian bloc legitimize Burma’s illegal regime, democratic countries and the UN still identify it as the responsible party for genocide and Burma’s descent into failed state status.

This page has always argued that while the illegal regime may win some battles and territory, it can never win the war. That is because the ethnic armies have been resisting for decades and can continue indefinitely, and are now joined by the ethnic Bamar resistance that shows similar commitment and determination.

Now that the junta’s latest burst of aggression is howling itself out, we could see it start losing ground again. The Arakan could finally zero out those last coastal enclaves of the junta. The Karen could batter down the hold-out Waw Lay base and turn their sights on Myawaddy. The Kachin could begin marketing their rare earth minerals to some international buyer other than China, and finish off the junta battalions in Banmaw. The Karenni, who have been on the canvas for the past year, may get up and start punching again, as suggested by the current fighting around Mobye.

The war is not almost over. The junta will win some battles and invade some locations. No one should think, however, that a regime with no political legitimacy and no popular support could govern a country over the long term, or even the minority piece of the country it currently controls. The most it could do is temporarily occupy some districts militarily, while constantly needing to guard its various flanks against a resistance that never relents.

Chin----------------------

Chin defense forces announced on July 2 that they have defeated the junta’s invasion of southern Chin State. The junta had sent about 2,000 troops toward the towns of Kanpetlet and Mindat starting in mid-May, accompanied by heavy aerial bombardment. Assisted by elements of the Arakan Army, the Chin say they have inflicted hundreds of casualties, without giving precise figures, and destroyed the command structure of the invasion forces, forcing them to retreat in disarray. The Chin shared photos of numerous captured and dead junta troops and a large stockpile of seized weapons. As elsewhere, the junta is attempting to compensate for its ground losses with intensified airstrikes, dropping over 100 bombs on Mindat over a 3-day period.

Meanwhile, Chin forces are also holding out against a junta push to control Thantlang town. Abut 200 troops joined a previous junta garrison in Thantlang during June and began trying to clear Chin forces out of some neighborhoods of the town. After making some initial headway, that effort has stalled against a tenacious Chin defense. Fighting is ongoing, and the Chin report junta use of chemical gas bombs. (Mizzima E 7/2)

Arakan----------------------

A video emerged, filmed by an Arakan Army soldier during the past week, showing the aftermath of a troop landing by the junta at its embattled coastal enclave of Kyaukphyu. Dozens of new recruits surrendered to the AA upon reaching the beach, and the tidal zone was littered with dozens or hundreds of discarded junta helmets, vests, and other gear. (https://www.facebook.com/reel/2763889327323098) The unwilling, lightly-trained conscripts have no commitment to the junta’s war, and make ineffective soldiers.

The large junta force sent in May to Mindon Township in Magway Region, adjacent to Arakan, has made no headway in trying to fight its way through the mountains into Arakan. The junta is trying to compensate with heavy bombing and more reinforcements. (People’s Spring 6/28)

Arakan has been self-governing for over 2 years, since over 95% of it is free of junta presence. On June 30 the Arakan government(ULA) announced a project to establish the banking sector, which has been disrupted since separation from junta-controlled Burma. The ULA is recruiting staff with banking expertise. Digital banking services will be emphasized. (Khit Thit Media 7/1)

The ULA is planning to revert many place names to their historic antecedents, undoing the Burmanization that started after the 1787 annexation of the Arakan kingdom by the Burma empire and accelerated under recent dictatorship. Pauktaw and Minbya, for instance, will again be called Wiratsani and Enazapura, respectively. Other Burmanized names to be changed back include the capital Sittwe, and Minbya. (The Irrawaddy B 7/3) Sittwe was formerly known as Akyab. Of the other ethnic homeland governments, Kawthoolei already has its own maps with Karen-determined place names and administrative boundaries. Others could follow suit with de-Burmanization. Arakan is in a unique position to do so now because of its near-total liberation.

Kawthoolei----------------------

In the ongoing junta offensive in Mutraw District, a group of over 20 recent forced recruits banded together and killed their commander, then defected to the Karen army with weapons, where their leader gave an interview describing the incident. He is a 33-year-old Bago Region native who was kidnapped from his home, like many forced recruits, in January. (People’s Spring 6/28) If word of this gets through the junta’s information blackout to other conscripts, it could set a pattern. Meanwhile the big drive toward Papun involving BGF and DKBA militants is still stalled not far from K’Ter Ti, where it was before.

Further south in Dooplaya District, the junta offensive has still not reached its objective of Palu/Minletpan on the Thai border. The ground troops have stopped for now, and there is only shelling and airstrikes. Some mortar shells and bullets have fallen on the Thai side.

Karenni----------------------

Karenni defense forces and allied Shan PDF launched a surprise attack on a junta and PNO militia camp in Mobye Township on June 28, sparking a 5-hour battle. The Karenni say at least 10 junta troops were killed, one was captured, and some weapons and equipment were seized. The Karenni then withdrew. (Than Lwin Khet News 6/29) Fighting is still ongoing between Mobye and Demawso, and the junta is bombing Nanmeikone town. (People’s Spring 7/1) The significance is that the junta’s control of this area was thought to be consolidated, but apparently isn’t.

Kachin---------------------

For over a month, Kachin forces have been battling a junta column that originally numbered about 1,000 troops, that has been trying to fight its way from Shweku eastward toward Kachin’s 2nd city Banmaw, where several junta battalions are cut off and besieged. The Kachin announced on July 2 that the junta side has fallen back with heavy casualties. (People’s Spring 7/2) The fact that the fighting still remains around Shweku means that the junta’s major offensive has stalled, and Kachin defenses are proving effective thus far.

The junta still hopes to claw back territory lost to Kachin forces, however. It has sent convoys of hundreds of trucks north to Myitkyina along the recently-recaptured Mandalay highway, and is preparing to send another flotilla of ships up the Irrawaddy River, as it did in 2025. (Myanmar Now 7/1)

The junta and its local SNA lackey militia launched an attack into Mohnyin Township on July 1. The Kachin army temporarily withdrew some of its camps in the area, and already there have been casualties on both sides, but details are yet to emerge.

Kachin civil society groups are reiterating their staunch opposition to the Myitsone Dam megaproject, which China intends to force forward over local objections now that it is effectively in control of the junta-occupied parts of Burma. The Myitsone Dam is supposed to generate electricity for the Chinese grid. (DVB E 7/1)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs intercepted a column of 110 junta troops in Mahlaing Township of Mandalay Region on July 2, sparking a 3-hour battle during which 7 troops were killed and 10 surrendered to the PDFs. The real accomplishment, though, was the amount of weaponry, ammunition, and equipment seized after the urgent junta retreat. The haul included 3 trucks, 20 rifles, a drone and its bombs, mortars, grenades, and other gear. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/3, People’s Spring 7/4)

A PDF in Yesajo Township of Magway Region attacked a gang of 45 junta troops that was impersonating the PDF, with phony uniforms, and extorting money from road travelers. The clash took place June 27 and resulted in some injuries to the junta troops. (People’s Spring 6/28) The junta has been known to try to discredit revolution forces by wearing similar uniforms and practicing abuses on the public.

In south-central Burma, PDFs have been attacking enemy positions in an area that is fairly securely under junta control. During the last 10 days of June they say they killed 22 junta troops including an officer at camps along roads, and caused unknown injuries, using drone and ground attacks. This is taking place in Aunglan Township of far southern Magway Region and Pauk Kaung Township of northwestern Bago Region, which are adjacent. (Than Lwin Khet News 6/30) On July 1 PDFs killed 10 troops when they attacked a junta checkpoint in Minhla Township of western Bago Region where troops had been abducting young men for forced military service. (People’s Spring 7/2) Other such attacks happened but aren’t listed here.

After PDFs destroyed a helicopter using 2 drones last week, the junta complained to its supervisors in Beijing that some of those drone components were sourced from China, namely the video monitors. The junta asked Beijing to prevent drone components being exported to Burma resistance groups. (Khit Thit Media 7/1) After last week’s helicopter destruction, junta troops have begun surrounding helicopters with nets as they land. (People’s Spring 6/29)

The junta force that recaptured Kampat town on the India border on June 20 is now fighting its way north toward the border town of Tamu, against PDF resistance. If it can reach Tamu, the junta will have re-opened the western section of the Asia Highway to India, as dictator Min Aung Hlaing pledged he would do during his visit with India Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the end of May. (People’s Spring 7/2)

Terrorism----------------------

According to the Armed Conflict and Location Event Data think tank (ACLED), Burma’s coup death toll has surpassed 100,000 people. Those include combat deaths, repression of protests, those killed in airstrikes and the junta’s other terrorist acts, and dead political prisoners. It isn’t clear from the report whether the total includes internal refugees who have died from exposure or lack of adequate food and health care. (Khit Thit Media 7/1)

Junta airstrikes on a civilian village of Maddaya Township in Mandalay Region killed 10 people on June 27, in retaliation against civilians for a PDF attack on a junta position. At least 20 others were injured. (People’s Spring 6/29) Similarly on June 28 an airstrike in Sagaing Township killed 4 children and 4 adults and injured more than 20 others. (Maung News 6/28)

The junta has once again bombed a prisoner of war camp in Arakan, killing its own soldiers. Jets bombed a POW camp in Maungdaw on July 2, killing 4 captured junta soldiers including an officer. (People’s Spring 7/4)

In its desperate search for young men to feed into its meat-grinder war strategy, the junta is abducting them from homes, work places, and roads. Abductions have become so numerous along the Pa’an-Myawaddy stretch of the Asia Highway in Kawthoolei that drivers are taking back roads instead of the main paved road. (Karen Information Center 6/29) Young men arrested for crimes are no longer sent to prison, but to the army. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 6/29)

Since youths kidnapped to serve in the military are denied communication, their families only know they are missing. Fraud networks have arisen to bilk these worried families. They monitor missing persons notices, then contact families, promising to find and return their loved ones. The scams pile financial hardship on top of the loss of family members. (Myanmar Now 7/2)

A new United Nations report says that due to the 2021 attempted coup and subsequent civil war and economic mismanagement by the military, one-third of Burma citizens (about 18 million people) need humanitarian assistance and 9.2 million face urgent food insecurity (hunger). (Mizzima 6/29)

The junta has been removing statues honoring Burma’s independence hero Aung San, father of detained (and possibly deceased) head of state Aung San Suu Kyi. Two were removed this week in Yangon, making for 8 nationwide. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 7/2) The terror regime continues its drive to erase all vestiges of opposition to military rule.

Political & economic----------------------

The American government has identified Burma scam centers as a major crime fighting focus. So it came as a rude surprise to anti-dictatorship groups in Burma that U.S. officials had a meeting in Tokyo in late June with representatives of the terrorist regime that protects and benefits financially from the organized crime hubs along its eastern border. The Americans and the Burma terrorists reportedly discussed potential joint efforts to combat the scam centers. A coalition of 25 Burma civil society groups issued a written protest, pointing out that the American administration is hypocritically teaming up with the criminals to fight the crimes. They compared it to “asking an arsonist to put out the fire.” The groups urged the USA to instead team up with the pro-democracy forces who are actually interested in stopping the scam centers. (Maung News 7/2)

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How it’s going----------------------

As a junta helicopter was landing to load casualties from a battle in Myaing Township of Magway Region, a guided PDF drone snuck up on it, approached it from behind, brushed past a soldier, and detonated against the underside of the tail section, killing the soldier and damaging the helicopter. A second drone, hovering nearby, filmed the explosion. Other troops fled the stricken copter, and the whirling rotors came to a stop. A second drone then detonated against the side of the helicopter. All of it was captured on video, both from the kamikaze drones and the spy drone.

Highly precise guided and armed drones operate in various war zones around the world now, but they are thought to have entered Burma through Chin State, facilitated by Ukrainian drone warfare experts who transferred the technology to the famous all-female WITCH drone squad. First-person view (FPV) video from the killer drones themselves shows them homing in on their targets, some of whom try futilely to escape at the last moment, only to be pursued by the fast-maneuvering drones. These small craft enter buildings, trucks, and trenches to strike their targets. The screen turns to static as the drone blows itself up. That technology has now spread to Magway Region, and perhaps other areas.

Burma’s post-coup civil war has been an arms race from the beginning. Originally, the junta possessed all the armaments advantages, including aircraft, mortars, automatic rifles, and ammunition. As early as 2021-22, resistance forces began developing their own locally-made rockets and mortars, and started adapting hobby and agricultural drones to strike junta targets. The early models were often dangerous, killing and injuring PDF members who built and tested them, but they have come a long way in terms of effectiveness and accuracy since then. PDFs also started sourcing guns and ammunition on the black market, and even manufacturing rifles and pistols, to where military-grade rifles have now completely replaced the hunting muskets originally brandished by rookie guerrilla fighters. Retrofitted commercial drones have now been replaced in many cases by purpose-built models by PDFs and ethnic armies using 3D printers, sophisticated electronics, and even jammer-proof fiber-optic cable

Drones helped cut down the junta’s weaponry advantage up until late 2024, battering junta camps into splinters so they could be stormed by PDF and ethnic ground troops. It was at that point that China began supplying devastating kamikaze drones by the thousands, wiping out the resistance drone advantage. The latest generation of FPV homing drones represents the resistance’s process of innovating and adapting to technical challenges. It uses disposable drones that cost several hundred dollars to attack junta targets worth up to hundreds of thousands. Watching Ukrainian drones destroying Russian oil refineries and other infrastructure thousands of kilometers deep inside Russia, one can anticipate resistance strikes of a similar nature against the junta’s terrorist hardware, such as fuel depots and aircraft hangars.

Roadside bombs with remote electronic detonators became a staple in guerrilla ambushes of junta convoys early in the war. Canisters of explosives made of fertilizer and wrapped with metal debris, chains, and iron rebar, with cheap mobile phones activating the detonators, these bombs make road transport perilous for even large trucks fitted with sheet metal sides.

Another home-grown resistance weapon is the 107mm shock missile, which is a large but low-tech rocket used effectively by specialized units such as the Brave Warriors for Myanmar to strike junta air bases and command centers. Encased in brass, these explosive-packed missiles are balanced on sacks of sand, where technicians calculate the precise angle for the distance being traversed. A few are usually duds, but a majority strike their targets, causing destructive explosions.

In addition to the local weapons are those captured by resistance forces and turned against the junta. The Arakan Army, in particular, has used howitzer artillery against junta bases. Other captured equipment such as armored vehicles are considered too much of a liability to use, amounting mostly to large targets.

Challenges still remain. Since China forced the ethnic Wa army to stop selling ammunition, bullets have become a major constraint for the resistance, obliging PDFs to break off battles prematurely or forego them altogether due to ammunition shortages. The resistance has not yet found a work-around for the shortage of detonation caps needed to make bullets. Some international technical assistance with that, in the same mode as the Ukrainian drone consultants, could help overcome that barrier.

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This is just another reminder that China’s support of the illegitimate and unpopular regime is not decisive. The resistance draws on a deep well of creativity and adaptability, with occasional technical support from international anti-authoritarian allies like Ukraine. If Chinese drones provide a momentary advantage to the junta, it is only a matter of time before the resistance engineers counter-measures.

Arakan----------------------

The Arakan Army captured 3 junta camps that guarded the No. 16 weapons factory in Padaung Township of western Bago Region on June 21. The previous day, the AA intercepted a reinforcement column, allowing it to take the camps. That places the AA within striking distance of the weapons factory, which produces gunpowder. (Network Media Group 6/25)

In Irrawaddy Region, the AA has taken yet another position from the junta, capturing a battalion camp in Yeji Township on June 23. They say there were large numbers of troops killed and weapons captured, but figures aren’t given. (Mizzima, Ayeyarwaddy Times 6/23) The junta continues to send reinforcements in the form of newly-conscripted trainees, and they keep getting killed, seriously wounded, or running away.

A similar scenario is playing out in the junta’s coastal Kyaukphyu enclave in Arakan, where hundreds of new recruits have not helped break the AA’s siege of the Taung Maw Oo naval base and are quickly winding up as casualties or deserters. (People’s Spring 6/23)

Kachin----------------------

As junta forces coming from Shweku attempt to fight their way toward Kachin’s 2nd city Banmaw and the Kachin army fights to block them, the junta is preventing residents of Shweku town from fleeing, holding them there as human shields. Three columns of junta troops are trying to advance eastward from Shweku. (People’s Spring 6/21)

Chin----------------------

The battle for southern Chin State continues. Since attacking in mid-May, junta forces have still not overcome Chin defenses to reach Kanpetlet and Mindat towns. They are therefore bombing intensively, causing civilian casualties and driving the population into the hills. (People’s Spring 6/24)

The junta forces in Thantlang town, augmented by reinforcements that arrived by the newly-recaptured road from Hakha, have regained most of the previously Chin-controlled districts of the town in an operation that began on June 10. The Chin are still fighting, however. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 6/21) Thantlang is largely a bombed-out ghost town.

Kawthoolei----------------------

The junta is going all-out to try to recapture its lost camp at Swa in Taw Oo District, on the east bank of the Sittaung River. Karen-aligned PDFs stormed the camp on June 3. Now the junta is bombing heavily and assembling a column of troops to re-attack the camp. Several thousand civilians have fled their homes. (People’s Spring 6/22)

Likewise, the junta is still trying to recapture its lost border camps in Dooplaya District south of Myawaddy city. Eight months of attacks have not budged the Karen defenses. Most recently, the junta has enlisted its lackey DKBA militia by promising it control of the Palu-Minletpan area if it can help to regain it. “Several thousand” DKBA militants are now helping the junta attack Karen army defenses there. Stray bullets and mortar rounds have been falling across the border in Tak Province of Thailand, prompting the Thais to close schools and evacuate the area adjacent to Palu-Minletpan. (The Irrawaddy B 6/25) The DKBA militia is not primarily a fighting force, its main occupation is the operation of lucrative scam centers and illegal drug factories along the border, where a human rights group says over 5,300 trafficked people are being used as slaves in scam centers under DKBA rule. (People’s Spring 6/25) In that respect it is similar to the other ethnic Karen, pro-junta splinter militias, the BGF and PC. For that reason the entry of the DKBA into the Palu-Minletpan battle may not be a decisive factor.

The junta has also deployed the DKBA and BGF in Mutraw District, where they have advanced northward from Kamamaung to K’Ter Ti and are trying to continue northward 65 km toward Papun town, which was liberated by the Karen army in March 2024. Junta casualties are said to be heavy and they are trying to rebuild a destroyed bridge so they can move northward, while the Karen forces try to prevent that rebuild. Jets bombed and destroyed a Buddhist monastery in Papun town on June 25. (Karen News, Salween Press 6/26) The junta still has 3 battalions just south of Papun, but they are isolated and besieged by the Karen.

Karenni----------------------

In a surprising admission, the junta announced on June 24 that it lost 19 troops killed including officers, and some weapons captured, during a month of fighting in Mobye Township. Its forces were trying to expand into rural areas and were opposed by the Karenni Alpha Zone. Two Karenni soldiers also died. (Kantarawaddy Times 6/24)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

During a major battle in Myaing Township of Magway Region, PDFs under the National Unity Government used 2 FPV drones to blow up a Mi-17 helicopter on June 23. Dual videos show the killer drones’ approaches, and the explosions seen from a spy drone nearby. The helicopter was on the ground with its rotors spinning at the time. A soldier was killed, and the survivors fled the craft. (Mandalay Free Press 6/23) Video at https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1E3ed3vAuK/

The helicopter had gone to evacuate the wounded from a battle in which PDFs attacked a column of 400 troops moving from Pakokku toward Myaing starting June 12, and forced it to retreat. The PDFs say nearly 50 of those troops were killed including officers. Photos show captured vehicles, fuel, food supplies, weapons, and dead troops. (Maung News, People’s Spring 6/24)

Also in Magway Region, PDFs in Pauk Township are distributing more than 80 weapons and other equipment captured from small junta camps that they raided during June. The guns, mortars, ammunition, and other items are going to local resistance forces. (People’s Spring 6/24)

The junta recaptured Khampat town on the Chin-Sagaing-India border on June 20, driving out the PDFs that had liberated it in November 2023. Khampat is a strategic point on the India-Burma-Thailand road or Asia Highway trade route that dictator Min Aung Hlaing promised to re-open during his visit with India Prime Minister Narendra Modi in early May. (Zalen News 6/21) PDF sources say at least 20 junta troops have been killed along the India border in the past 2 weeks, including a battalion commander. (People’s Spring 6/26) Another junta column is trying to re-open a stretch of the Asia Highway north of the Sagaing regional capital Monywa, causing battles with the PDFs who control it. Junta troops have reportedly killed some villagers and kidnapped 16 others to walk through minefields ahead of the troops. (Mandalay Free Press 6/26)

PDFs in Launglone Township near Tavoy city attacked a junta column camped in a village on June 14, and drove the troops out the next day, capturing 7 dead bodies and weapons. Six others were wounded, including 2 officers. The junta fired artillery from Tavoy. It had been on an offensive to try to take back control of the Launglone peninsula from the PDFs. (People’s Spring 6/21)

Similarly, PDFs in Chauk Township of Magway Region used roadside bombs to blow up a convoy of about 100 troops on June 20, killing 7 and wounding 7. The same day, they raided a junta road checkpoint and killed 2 more troops and wounded 6. (Karenni People’s Voice 6/24)

PDFs ambushed a junta column in Ayadaw Township of Sagaing Region on June 24, but got surrounded, and 10 PDF soldiers were killed. (People’s Spring 6/25)

Not much is usually heard about PDF activity in Yangon Region, which is heavily dominated by junta forces, but Yangon PDF leaders announced on June 22 that during a period of 4 months, they killed approximately 130 junta troops in numerous small-scale attacks, which resulted in the capture of weapons. (Chindwin Yoma News B 6/22)

Another case of internal conflict among resistance forces has arisen, between National Unity Government battalions and a communist militia calling itself the ‘people’s liberation army’ that rejects the authority of the NUG. The PLA apparently apprehended a civilian in Taungtha Township of Mandalay Region on May 12, accusing him of being a ‘dalan’ or junta spy. The NUG disputed the accusation and challenged the PLA’s authority to carry out governance functions such as law enforcement. NUG troops moved in on 2 PLA camps on June 22, leading to the deaths of 4 NUG soldiers in a minefield. The PLA says it withdrew from the 2 camps in order to avoid conflict between resistance allies. The NUG successfully asserted its governance writ in this area, but the PLA has other battalions elsewhere in central Burma, so there is potential for further conflict. (The Irrawaddy B, Than Lwin Khet News 6/23) The NUG is trying to reduce lawlessness and consolidate its governance authority in liberated areas of central Burma, as part of its drive to build an effective united front against the illegal military regime.

Terrorism----------------------

A junta sergeant posted a video on social media in which he boasted about killing and torturing captured PDF soldiers during fighting in northern Mandalay Region between 2023 and 2025. He claimed that he would slit their throats or burn them alive. (People’s Spring 6/25) The junta doesn’t keep prisoners of war, it murders unarmed captives, in violation of the international rules of engagement.

Burma’s UN Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun told the United Nations Security Council on June 20 that over 900 cases of rape and sexual assault by junta troops have been documented since the 2021 attempted coup touched off the current civil war. The cases include gang rape and sexual torture. He also said that 63 women have been killed and 66 wounded by airstrikes and shelling during 2026, out of a total of over 700 deaths. (Mizzima E 6/23) Since these are only the documented rape cases, they represent the tip of the iceberg. Rape is said to be routine on female prisoners, and women and girls caught during village terror raids are often assaulted.

India’s junta-aligned military has been conducting bodily searches of female Burma citizens in Assam State that amount to sexual assault by male officers. (Khit Thit Media 6/25)

As the junta continues its saturation bombing of southern Chin State towns, drone strikes in Kanpetlet June 19-22 killed 7 civilians including a pregnant mother and injured 10 more. (Mizzima B 6/23)

Political & economic----------------------

Financial crime networks are rife in the large junta-controlled cities of Yangon, Mandalay, and Mandalay, according to an investigation by the United States Institute of Peace. Though the junta has publicly shut down and arrested a few of these gangs, a lot more still operate, with the junta benefiting from them materially. Financial organized crime is no longer just a phenomenon of the lawless border areas in Kawthoolei and Shan State. (The Irrawaddy B 6/24)

America’s National Endowment for Democracy honored the Burma activists who organize support for the pro-democracy soldiers fighting in the Spring Revolution. The NED announced the award on June 25. In particular, a U.S.-based group called Women for Myanmar was mentioned, which raises money to send to the resistance forces to provide them with the necessities to remain on the front line, protecting the people from the terrorist actions of the illegal military regime. (The Irrawaddy B, Maung News 6/25)

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How it’s going----------------------

Only the junta knows if Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi is still alive. She hasn’t been seen or heard from by anyone else in approximately a year. She is or was one of over 20,000 political prisoners held hostage since the 2021 attempted coup, along with President U Win Myint. At last contact, her health was failing. Hundreds of others have died in junta prisons for lack of medical care. Friday June 19 was her 81st birthday.

The illegal regime remains frightened of Mother Suu’s popularity, either as a leader or as a martyr. How frightened is it? It arrested a man out jogging with a jersey bearing number 81, and two people in Loikaw who mentioned Aung San Suu Kyi on social media. Her NLD party won 80% of the contested parliamentary seats in the last legitimate election in November 2020. Whatever her merits as head of state during the 2015-20 period, millions of Burma citizens regard her as the symbol of freedom and civilian rule, the antithesis of the military dictatorship that has blighted Burma from 1962 onward.

The Nobel Committee awarded her the Peace Prize in 1990 as a campaigner for freedom for Burma’s people. When she finally came to partial power in 2015 after 15 years under arrest, she proved to be more of a proponent of her own ethnic Bamar people than of the country as a whole. Her rule brought no relief to Burma’s exploited and marginalized ethnic minorites. In fact, her international reputation was tarnished in 2019 when she testified on behalf of the military at the International Court of Justice for the 2017 Rohingya genocide. Her party, the NLD, already showed signs of becoming an entitled, disconnected elite by 2020.

Despite this, Aung San Suu Kyi’s overwhelming popularity was undiminished inside Burma, even among ethnic minorities. What matters to most people is her value as the alternative to the kleptocratic military. This year, like every year, she was honored with rallies and flowers across liberated parts of Burma and in the diaspora abroad, and even subtly in junta-ruled areas. A number of foreign embassies issued commemorative statements.

The junta thought that by jailing The Lady, it could decapitate and defuse the freedom movement. That hasn’t happened. The Spring Revolution has flourished in her absence. Even if she is still alive, it is unlikely that she will again have a role in governing the country. Power has been decentralized within the resistance movement, and the ethnic minorities have become far more influential than they ever were before the attempted coup. The youth who are fighting the war will rule, rather than the establishment elders of the NLD.

Still, Aung San Suu Kyi’s relevance as a symbol of resistance to autocracy won’t fade, perhaps especially after her death. Her birthday is the nation’s opportunity to re-affirm its commitment to the fight for freedom.

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Arakan----------------------

The junta continues to flail ineffectively against the Arakan Army. In Irrawaddy Region, the AA captured 3 junta camps in Thapaung and Yeji Townships on June 17, despite the recent arrival of reinforcements. The AA seized weapons and ammunition, and junta troops fell back with wounded. The previous day, the AA ambushed one of the reinforcement convoys, sending it back with 30 wounded. (People’s Spring 6/18)

In the Kyaukphyu coastal enclave, another junta attempt to break out of the narrow perimeter in which the AA has it confined failed on June 19 when the AA drove it back, with between 30 and 40 casualties, according to the AA. (People’s Spring 6/20)

Junta airstrikes in Kyauktaw and Gwa townships on June 17 killed at least 10 people and injured dozens more, and destroyed key infrastructure, such as a shipping dock in Kyauktaw. (DVB E 6/18)

Kachin----------------------

As junta troops continue to try to fight their way from Shweku toward Banmaw to relieve their besieged battalions there, the Kachin army is battling their advance. The Kachin estimate that 20 junta troops were killed on June 15 and others were taken prisoner, and some weapons were seized. The bodies of 8 civilians murdered by the junta troops have been found so far in Shweku Township. (People’s Spring 6/16) On June 16 the Kachin headed off a new junta advance, forcing troops to retreat and capturing a machine gun and other weapons. (People’s Spring 6/18)

Karenni----------------------

Junta forces including the lackey Pa-O PNO militia are attacking Karenni positions at Nanmeikone in Loikaw Township. Nanmeikone has been liberated since late 2023, but the Karenni have been steadily driven back since China entered the war on the junta side in late 2024. (People’s Spring 6/19)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

Central Burma (Anyah) PDFs are still demonstrating their ability to strike junta forces. PDFs in Magway Region launched a ‘Red Rose Operation’ with a series of attacks on junta convoys and positions in Minbu, Thayet, Pakokku, Ganggao, and Magway Townships in honor of Aung San Suu Kyi’s birthday on June 19. (People’s Spring 6/20)

On June 17, PDFs attacked a column of 400 junta troops that emerged from Pakokku to burn villages in Kamma and Pakokku Townships in Magway Region. Casualties aren’t reported. (People’s Spring 6/18)

On June 16 PDFs intercepted 2 trucks trying to leave Seikphyu Township in Magway Region, killing 10 troops including an officer and grabbing weapons and ammunition and destroying the trucks. (Khit Thit Media 6/17).

On June 7 they drone-bombed and ambushed a junta supply convoy in Nwatoji Township of Mandalay Region, killing 11 troops and wounding 6, and forcing the convoy to turn back. (Voice of Spring 6/14)

Fighting has been intense as the junta tries to retake control of the Kalay-Tamu road, which forms a segment of the Thai-Myanmar-India highway that dictator Min Aung Hlaing promised to re-open during his visit to India at the beginning of June. Junta columns are advancing from both the south (Kalay) and the north (Tamu), while PDFs defend the area. The latter said on June 16 that at least 15 junta troops had died in the fighting and their columns had been forced to retreat temporarily, though they did capture a PDF camp. The camp was evacuated ahead of the junta’s arrival. (Mandalay Free Press 6/16) Then on June 18, a Kalay PDF announced that it had killed 7 more troops including a lieutenant colonel and captured 3 others alive along with weapons and ammunition. (Maung News 6/18)

A June 17 PDF ambush in western Bago Region on 2 vehicles killed 4 junta troops including an officer and captured weapons and the vehicles. (Maung News 6/17)

On June 15, PDFs attacked the junta industrial zone in Monywa city, capital of Sagaing Region, prompting the regime to send reinforcements, which the PDFs anticipated and ambushed. At least 4 troops were killed in the fighting, then the PDFs withdrew to safety in guerrilla style. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 6/17)

The National Unity Government Ministry of Defense announced that a junta battalion commander was killed along with 18 troops and 2 brigadier generals were wounded during the past month in Mandalay Region. (People’s Spring 6/14)

Five junta troops, recent conscripts, ran away on June 15 to a nearby Karen PDF while manning a road checkpoint at the entrance to Tavoy city in Kawthoolei’s Mergui-Tavoy District. Other junta troops are searching for them. (Than Lwin Times 6/18)

Terrorism----------------------

Jets caused another mass murder when they bombed a civilian neighborhood in Kyauktaw, Arakan on June 17, killing 12 residents including a child and injuring many others. Fourteen bombs destroyed some houses and sank a boat traveling in the river. (Mizzima 6/17) Jets also killed 5 civilians including a pregnant mother in Wetlet Township of Sagaing Region. (The Irrawaddy E 6/17)

The junta has also been saturation-bombing Mindat town in southern Chin State, where its ground forces have been prevented so far from reaching by Chin defense forces. On June 17 planes dropped 70 bombs. (People’s Spring 6/17)

After a jet bombing killed 4 people in Kyaikto Township of Kawthoolei’s Doo Tha Htoo District, survivors held a funeral, and jets came and bombed that, killing an unknown number of additional people. (Karen News 6/19)

The horrors continue to emerge from the May 10 Myitche massacre in Pakokku Township. A monk who was detained and beaten, but survived, described junta troops gang-raping women before killing them and burning their bodies or throwing them in latrines, beating and torturing adults and children for information of PDFs, and killing men. The death toll has surpassed 50 now.

The junta has been depopulating the region surrounding its northwest military command HQ in Monywa Township of Sagaing Region, razing villages and chasing residents out. (People’s Spring 6/14)

Chinese interference----------------------

Burma dictator Min Aung Hlaing visited his supervisors in Beijing June 15-19, during which Chinese premier Xi Jinping demanded that the junta deploy the necessary security resources to protect the mega-projects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Those include China’s gas and oil pipelines that cross Burma, its copper, gold, and other mines, its vast farms producing bananas and other foods for the Chinese market, a proposed railway along the same route as the pipelines, and the giant Myitsone hydroelectric dam that China wants to build over the objections of the people of Kachin State. Since China took over sponsorship of the terrorist regime and reversed its decline, China now handles the regime like a client administration, forwarding Chinese economic interests in Burma at the expense of citizens who lose their land and livelihoods to these projects. (Khit Thit Media 6/16)

During the dictator’s Beijing summons, China pledged to protect Burma’s “sovereignty,” but at the same time sped up the construction of its border fencing inside Burma territory in Shan State, sending machinery onto the southern side of the Shweli River in Muse and Namkam Townships. (People’s Spring 6/16) China has been annexing Burma territory and eroding is sovereignty in this way since last year.

Political & economic----------------------

The National Unity Government warned international investors and potential investors against joint ventures with the illegal military regime, saying any such contracts will be considered invalid, and any financial or material losses suffered by those collaborating with the regime will be the latter’s sole responsibility. (Than Lwin Khet News 6/20) Chinese, Indian, and Thai companies have shown recent interest in doing business with the terrorist regime.

Southeast Asia’s regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN held a special summit in Russia June 17-18, but Burma dictator Min Aung Hlaing was barred from participating by ASEAN heads of state. A junta operative calling himself “foreign minister” did attend on the regime’s behalf. (People’s Spring 6/18) Despite pro-junta lobbying by Thailand, Lao, and Indonesia, Burma’s dictator is still not considered a legitimate head of state by ASEAN, even after crowning himself “president” in March following sham elections.

The military regime has been furiously printing new banknotes in order to fill its budget gap. This has exacerbated price inflation, already driven upward by the Iran war and higher oil prices. The regime still maintains its artificial exchange rate of 2100 kyats to the US dollar, even though the kyat’s real value when exchanged openly is less than half of that. The discrepancy between the real and official exchange rates has made many imports impossible, since above-board importation must be done at the official rate, causing financial losses. This has especially affected the agricultural sector, which relies on imported fertilizers, fuel, and farm equipment. Many farmers are planting without fertilizer, which lowers production, or they have ceased production because they lose money. (This is not to mention the 4 million internal refugees, many of whom are farm families unable to farm while displaced from their land.) The resulting reduction in food supply in turn drives up the price of domestically-produced foods, notably rice, the main staple. Some imports and trading continue in the black market, especially in liberated border areas that use the Thai baht currency and are thus immune to kyat inflation. (Chindwin Yoma News B 6/17)

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How it’s going----------------------

The prime minister of India throws a red carpet reception for the Burma dictator and discusses economic cooperation. The foreign ministers of Thailand, Laos, and Indonesia all make official visits to the junta capital Naypyitaw, then advocate for ASEAN to normalize the illegal regime. China exchanges official visits and pushes its giant industrial projects. Japanese, Thai, and European companies do business with the junta and its cronies.

It’s as if that regime weren’t bombing schools, hospitals, and refugee camps every day to stay in power, and sending its troops to loot and torch entire villages. It is worth remembering that these behaviors fit the textbook definition of terrorism - it is a terrorist regime. Yet these diplomats and CEOs treat it like a legitimate government, seeking to collude and collaborate with it. While the enablers’ shiny shoes tread the plush carpets and their buttocks dent the cushioned chairs of government palaces, young men are dragged away to almost certain death in the war, villagers dive for cover at the sound of airplanes, and refugees languish in remote camps, short of food and medicine.

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Courting the palace terrorists is a vocation where ethics plays no role. There is no hesitation to do business just because a regime practices mass brutality to maintain its tenuous grip. Only self-interest matters, and only the short-term kind. If there is some profit to be gained, these governments and companies justify the misery they support by saying it’s not their affair, only an internal political matter for Burma to sort out.

While self-interest manifested as evil is nothing new, what is frustrating is the inaction of those who purport to stand for human rights and freedom. Democratic governments and United Nations agencies make verbal expressions of solidarity with Burma’s people, but do nothing effective to help. Some won’t even name the perpetrators, and none will recognize Burma’s legitimate authorities, the NUG and SCEF. If the verbal supporters send help at all, it is only in the form of humanitarian aid, and then delivered into the hands of the regime causing the crisis.

Humanitarian aid is at best a band-aid on the real problem, which is the regime. Help to solve that is denied, such as protective weapons against airstrikes, or badly-needed ammunition to halt the junta’s marauding military. With such squeamish, hand-wringing friends, Burma is at the mercy of China, India, Thailand, Russia, and the other amoral opportunists currently exploiting it through its violent regime.

Burma is becoming a showcase of how the world works in the early 21st Century, and what it shows is darkly discouraging. If we can’t do better than this, we have nothing good to look forward to.

Left to fend solely for themselves, Burma’s people will soldier on, and eventually wear down the unpopular regime, again. That will take years, however, during which the national misery continues. It doesn’t have to be that way.

Arakan----------------------

In the Arakan Army’s new assault on the Sittwe and Kyaukphyu coastal junta enclaves, it made progress by overrunning 3 perimeter guard posts around the Taung Maw Oo navy base adjacent to Kyaukphyu on or before June 6. Troops at other posts had already fled. On June 12 an AA sniper killed a junta lieutenant colonel there. In Sittwe, fighting is now reaching close to the junta’s western regional command HQ and the naval base just north of the city. The junta retaliated by bombing civilians in nearby Ramree Township. (People’s Spring 6/6, 6/12) The Arakan now say they have found dead bodies of 70 junta troops including officers during this surge, and have confiscated weapons. (The Irrawaddy B 6/7) On June 8 the junta sent 3 warships and 300 reinforcements to Taung Maw Oo, and on June 11 500 more troops arrived by ship. (People’s Spring 6/9, 6/11, Than Lwin Khet News 6/12) These may just become additional AA targets, however.

Three columns totaling over 1,000 junta troops have been repulsed in Mindon Township of western Magway Region where they tried to invade the mountains that form the border with Arakan State. The troops attempted from May 22 to June 3 to cross the mountains, but had to retreat. Casualty figures aren’t given, but 18 troops were captured by Arakan forces including 2 officers. (People’s Spring 6/10)

Meanwhile in Irrawaddy Region, the AA forced the junta to retreat from another camp near Yeji in Thapaung Township, where it had just sent reinforcements. The AA took over the camp on June 8. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 6/11) The AA is showing the limited effectiveness of the junta’s hastily kidnapped and trained conscripts in battle.

The junta has had ambitions of re-invading lost Arakan State, but in reality it is on the defensive against the Arakan Army, sending its troops instead to Irrawaddy Region to stave off further losses there. This week it sent 15 trucks of reinforcements and supplies to Yeji, Thapaung, and Laymyet Hna Townships where the Arakan Army occupies territory and is threatening junta bases. Local witnesses say the junta has been disposing of between 30 and 50 of its dead soldiers daily in Thapaung, some by dumping them in the local river. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 6/6)

During dictator Min Aung Hlaing’s India visit, he and Prime Minister Modi pledged to implement the Kaladan corridor project, which is a transit channel from India’s isolated northeast region through Arakan State to the sea at Sittwe. They talked like this despite the fact that neither of them controls the relevant territory. They didn’t bother to consult the United League of Arakan, which does. (Ayeyarwaddy Times, The Irrawaddy B 6/7)

Chin----------------------

In the ongoing junta re-invasion of Chin State, a column of 250 junta troops drove Chin defense forces out of a key hilltop position along the road from the state capital Hakha to the already-occupied Thantlang town. The Chin withdrew on June 6 after a 2-day battle. Though the junta already held both towns, Chin forces had cut the road between them, disrupting the supply chain, but now the junta controls that entire segment. (People’s Spring 6/7)

Junta troops are advancing north from Kalay to try to recapture Kampat town on the India border at the northern end of Chin State. Kampat has been liberated by Chin forces since 2023. (People’s Spring 6/8)

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin are under assault on multiple fronts. Junta reinforcements are heading into Shweku town, which they already control, in preparation for further advances into Kachin State. The Kachin army is putting up fierce resistance to these movements, and has warned its citizens in Shweku to evacuate ahead of anticipated fighting. (Kachin News Group 6/10)

The junta is reportedly preparing another resupply flotilla to travel up the Irrawaddy River to Banmaw again, as in August last year. After that convoy, the besieged junta forces in Banmaw city were temporarily able to expand their footprint, until the Kachin wore them down again in December.

Meanwhile, junta columns in the state capital Myitkyina and in far northern Puta-O are attacking towards each other, trying to overcome Kachin army defenses in between them in Sumprabum. (Kachin News Group 6/12)

Kawthoolei----------------------

Junta forces fought hard to retake the camp in Palaw Township of Mergui-Tavoy District that they lost to the Karen army on May 29. Under heavy air and mortar bombing, Karen forces withdrew on June 10 to avoid casualties, and the junta troops who had run away returned to their camp. The Karen still have the many weapons they seized when they overran the camp. (Network Media Group 6/10)

American federal police (FBI), working remotely, took over and dismantled the digital infrastructure of a DKBA-run scam center at Taichan, south of Myawaddy on the Kawthoolei-Thailand border. The announcement was made June 11. That infrastructure includes scamming websites and cryptocurrency, of which the FBI says it seized US$30 million. The FBI is still working on 2 other DKBA scam centers in the same area. (DVB E 6/11) The loss of this scam center will slightly decrease DKBA and junta revenues. That impact could grow if more scam centers are dismantled, but the pro-junta splinter militias running them have a habit of simply relocating and restarting them.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs attacked and captured a junta camp on June 3 at Swa, on the east bank of the Sittaung River in Yetashei Township of eastern Bago Region, bordering on Kawthoolei’s Taw Oo District. The camp housed 60 troops, and at least 20 were killed including a major, as shown in photos, and the rest fled. The PDF seized 17 rifles plus mortar rounds, ammunition, grenades, and equipment. (People’s Spring 6/6)

Then on June 10, PDFs attacked and briefly captured the police barracks in Myitche in Pakokku Township of Magway Region, the same village where junta troops massacred over 40 civilians last week. The PDFs killed 2 troops and captured 18 alive along with a number of weapons. The aftermath is shown in a PDF video. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 6/10) However, other junta troops returned in the evening, and the PDFs withdrew with their haul. (People’s Spring 6/11)

PDFs in Aungsan Township of Magway Region attacked a junta gate camp on the Natmauk road on June 2. The camp housed about 35 troops, most of whom were killed. An officer and a soldier survived. As the PDFs were about to enter the camp, junta reinforcements arrived, along with a scouting drone which the PDFs shot down. (Khit Thit Media 6/10)

Terrorism----------------------

The death toll in the massacre in Myitche village of Pakokku Township in Magway Region has reached over 40 civilians, as more rotting and charred bodies are still being discovered a week after the junta assault. Most victims were killed when they tried to return to their homes to retrieve food and supplies, thinking the troops had left. They were shot, burned, hanged, or chopped up. Survivors said they overhead soldiers comparing the numbers of people they had murdered. Other residents are still missing. Some bodies were so badly degraded that they haven’t been identified. (Mandalay Free Press 6/8) Myitche is right across the Irrawaddy River from Bagan, the ancient temple city and one of Burma’s prime tourism sites. The people are of the Bamar ethnic majority. On June 10 PDFs counter-attacked and stormed the junta police barracks there (see above.)

Update on the PDF seizure of a junta police barracks and Pyu Saw Htee camp in Pauk Township on June 2 and 4, respectively: While the camp was under PDF assault, junta jets dropped 500 pound bombs in a futile attempt to stop the takeover, knowing full well that at least 65 civilian family members of its own militia operatives were still there. The PDFs say the airstrikes caused fatalities among the junta supporters, without giving numbers. (People’s Spring 6/11) This is the latest in a series of airstrikes on the junta’s own captured personnel. An airstrike on an Arakan Army prisoner of war camp on March 8 killed 116 captive junta soldiers.

Guards at the junta prison in Magway have been torturing political prisoners to the point of endangering their lives. Guards removed all bedding from 42 kidnapped pro-democracy activists, forcing them to sleep on the bare concrete, and have restricted access to food and water. They have also beaten and tortured the prisoners, and 12 of them are in critical condition. (People’s Spring 6/11)

Recently-defected junta troops in Irrawaddy Region say that when they reach the end of their forced 2-year military service, instead of being discharged as promised, they are sent for further fighting in the junta’s besieged coastal enclaves in Arakan State. The reneging on the service period discharge is causing more conscripts to attempt desertion and defection. (The Irrawaddy B 6/12) As if to illustrate this point, a total of 219 junta soldiers surrendered, were captured, or defected during the first week of June. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 6/13) Some captures and surrenders are de facto defections, as junta conscripts seek opportunities to cross to the resistance side. In effect, conscription becomes a death sentence when the junta retains them indefinitely, fighting until they are killed.

Political & economic----------------------

There was some push-back this week against countries and businesses normalizing the terrorist regime (described above.) An official delegation from Burma’s National Unity Government, led by Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung, visited Canada June 6-12 and met with Canadian officials in Ottawa. The delegation also made stops in Vancouver and Toronto. (DVB E 6/12)

Philippines foreign minister Tess Lazaro, who is the current chair of ASEAN, said on June 10 that she will meet with Burma’s ethnic homeland governments in an effort to resolve the armed crisis there. Without specifying which ethnic homelands she will engage, she said she intends to gather information on the situation in order to find a solution. (People’s Spring 6/10) This runs counter to the efforts of the Thai, Lao, and Indonesian governments at the behest of China to normalize relations with the illegal coup regime and marginalize the ethnic homelands.

The Blood Money Campaign, a human rights organization focusing on Burma, sent a June 11 letter to members of the ASEAN diplomatic bloc, urging them to maintain pressure on the dictatorship and avoid abetting its crimes against its population. (Karen News 6/12) The BMC letter is in direct response to moves to normalize the illegal regime.

British members of parliament from across the political spectrum blasted their government on June 11 for its lack of action against the Burma coup regime, questioning why sanctions haven’t been imposed to target its oil and gas revenues and the aviation fuel supply behind the air terror campaign. They also highlighted the regime’s persecution of religious minorities. (DVB E 6/12)

Burma’s Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF) held a ‘town hall’ meeting in Bangkok on June 5, attended by diplomats from the Thailand and Burma embassies of between 24 and 29 countries (reports differ). The purpose of the meeting was to familiarize the international community with the SCEF’s composition and mission, and thus its legitimacy as representative of Burma’s people. Founded in March in reaction to the junta’s pseudo-democratic façade regime, the SCEF represents the National Unity Government and key ethnic homeland governments such as those of Kawthoolei, Karenni, and Chin. Along with a provisional government to transition to democracy in the post-junta period, the SCEF includes a more centralized military command to prosecute the war to remove the junta. The SCEF’s report of the town hall meeting withheld the identities of the countries attending. (Mizzima 6/7) The interest from the foreign governments is encouraging, but the fact that they don’t identify themselves publicly is a telling sign of the bias enjoyed by the authoritarian regime.

The same day as the SCEF meeting and in the same city, Thailand’s foreign minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow held a press conference to discuss the Thai-Cambodia war and Burma. He advocated for the regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN to lower its sanctions against the coup plotters in Burma and to normalize the pseudo-civilian “government” erected by the military regime in March. This meeting was attended by diplomats from 67 countries. (Mizzima 6/7) Clearly the Burma popular forces are at a disadvantage vis-à-vis the junta when it comes to international recognition, a symptom of the dysfunction within the existing diplomatic conventions that legitimize whatever band of armed operatives may seize control of the apparatus of a state and call itself a “government.”

Indonesia’s foreign minister, Sugiono, made a pilgrimage to Naypyitaw on June 8 for the express purpose of legitimizing the pseudo-government and the military dictator Min Aung Hlaing. He was there to discuss normalizing the illegal regime’s status within ASEAN. (Khit Thit Media 6/8) Then Laos’ foreign minister Thongsavanh Phomvihane went to Naypyitaw on June 12. (The Irrawaddy E 6/9) Laos is ruled by a one-party military regime like Burma’s, but democratic Indonesia’s support for the junta is less logical.

From April 20 to July 31, the junta is implementing a “100 day plan,” part of which is a ban on imported goods from China and Thailand, which account for a large share of all its consumer goods. Troops have been stopping trucks coming from the borders and seizing the goods, as well as raiding warehouses in Yangon and Mandalay. The resulting shortage of necessary consumer goods is causing price spikes. (People’s Spring 6/8)

FIFA, the world governing body of international football, an organization notorious for corruption, has awarded the Burma broadcast rights for the World Cup to Mytel, a telecommunications company wholly owned by Burma’s terrorist regime. (The Irrawaddy B 6/10) The human rights watchdog Justice for Myanmar immediately condemned FIFA’s patronage of the rogue regime. (Mizzima 6/12)

The Chinese Communist Party detained Burma-born USA citizen U Min Zin on June 11 as he accepted an invitation to a conference in Yunnan Province, which borders Shan State. He heads a think tank called the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, which has been mildly critical of Chinese manipulation in Burma. The Chinese accuse him of “spying,” a catch-all charge used in authoritarian countries for criticizing the regime. (People’s Spring 6/13)

The same day, and for the same reason, the Burma regime detained USA citizen Adam Castillo, former chair of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Burma, a private industry group. After leaving Burma, Castillo wrote a book about his experience during the 2021 attempted military coup, which apparently displeased the dictatorship. He was abducted as he arrived at the Yangon airport. (People’s Spring 6/13) It isn’t clear why Castillo thought he could return to Burma without consequences.

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How it’s going----------------------

Tales from defecting junta soldiers this week provided some insights into what’s happening inside the ballooning enemy infantry. The huge troop numbers are deceptive, because many of those conscripts are unarmed, and are coming raw from 22-week training camps, and want to escape at the first opportunity. The junta pushes them forward against the hardened lines of the Kachin, Arakan, and Karen armies, where they get killed and wounded in large numbers.

The swarm strategy works to a certain extent, as the smaller pro-democracy forces have to withdraw from some places to avoid being surrounded. Those junta gains are tenuous, however, since the heavy losses require a constant stream of new trainees even just to maintain existing positions, let alone take others. Certain long-standing battlefields, like Natyaykan in Magway Region, become mass graveyards for successive waves of junta reinforcements. Captured troops tell of killings by their own officers and air force. Of those troops not killed or wounded, others run away daily, and some show up at ethnic army and PDF lines, where the information they provide helps undermine the junta. It also helps us understand the real situation.

Before being sent out and ordered to commit atrocities, many of these youths are themselves subjected to torture and deprivation by their officers and trainers, inculcating the junta’s terrorist ideology.

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The meat grinder strategy isn’t sustainable. It’s too expensive in lives and in resources used for constant training and equipping of new recruits. Inexperienced and unwilling troops tend to run during resistance attacks, leaving camps and weapons to be seized.

The fact that, due to the junta’s use of forced recruits, the pro-democracy forces must kill and injure these young men who mean them no harm is a tragedy in itself. The National Unity Government is urging young men to take action to avoid getting drafted, and is providing information to help new conscripts escape to the liberation forces. The NUG emphasizes the importance of not letting one’s self be used for the junta’s violent campaign to stay in power at all costs.

Testimony from captured junta conscripts----------------------

This week brought damning testimony from captured and escaped junta troops that present a vivid picture of what’s happening on the junta’s side of the battle lines.

One source is an interview of 4 new forced junta recruits who absconded. One of them was grabbed by “recruiters” while returning from his wedding; another in a guest house while traveling; another when his car broke down. They knew others who had been taken while getting a birthday cake for their children, or who joined the army as an alternative to being jailed for crimes. They were among 150 who were brought to a training camp, kept in shackles, and fed minimal rice and vegetable rations like penal camp inmates. If they took more than 5 minutes to use the bathroom and shower, they were beaten. They were sent out from training without learning how to use weapons.

After training, they were sent to villages where they were made to burn and loot homes. If there was more food than they could carry away, they destroyed it. Later they would sell stolen food. An officer recommended raping civilian women. (People’s Spring 5/31)

These 4 never reached the front lines of a battle before they escaped. Others who have, described colleagues shot for running or for refusing to advance into enemy fire or into minefields.

In Burma’s largest city Yangon, young men are being grabbed off the street by junta administrators as they drive rickshaws, work as street vendors, or work at construction sites. In Ward 13 they are then taken to a junta office and tortured so badly that neighbors can hear their screams. They are then sold to the military. (Myanma Pressphoto Agency 6/3) In Tamwe Township of Yangon, junta administrators grabbed a 47-year-old rickshaw driver, issued him a fake ID saying he is 35, and kidnapped him for military service. The legal age range for military service is 18-35, but underage boys have been taken, and now older men as well. (People’s Spring 6/4)

Runaway junta recruits have been showing up at Karen army camps without weapons. They say they are not given guns. Essentially these “soldiers” are used as human shields and unpaid labor. They also report conflicts among the soldiers. (Salween Press 6/2) This means that the huge troop numbers reported in the invasions of Chin and Kachin State and elsewhere include a lot of unarmed support personnel.

Another defector told independent media that most of the new recruits die on the front lines. He said that out of a group of 400 recruits he was in, only a few are still alive. This defector said his first escape attempt during training camp failed, and he was beaten daily for 2 months after being caught. The conscripts are from working and poor backgrounds rather than junta families, and their dead bodies are left behind rather than being returned to their families. He says all the forced conscripts want to escape. (Khit Thit Media 6/2)

An Arakan soldier who interviewed junta prisoners of war says they told of officers shooting recruits who were afraid to advance against the Arakan lines or march into minefields. Some recruits are so afraid that they shoot themselves to avoid battle, and those are denied medical treatment. The new recruits become depleted physically and mentally. Badly wounded soldiers are killed because they are difficult to evacuate. The POWs also said front line troops were killed by the junta’s own drones last September. These prisoners were taken near the Natyaykan mountaintop base in Magway Region, which the Arakan have besieged since February last year. Thousands of reinforcements have been sent, only to become casualties without any impact on the battle. (People’s Spring 6/4)

Soldiers wounded in battle in Irrawaddy Region are sometimes expected to pay for their own medical treatment, because the army’s medical resources are reserved for officers. Civilians can’t get medical treatment because the hospitals are filled with army wounded. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 6/5)

A junta Major Aye Maung Cho has been siphoning off funds meant for supplying front line camps in the Irrawaddy Region. The major has been diverting the money for his personal benefit, according to internal junta accounts. The knowledge of this embezzlement is causing anger among the troops, who are short on food and other supplies. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 6/1)

Arakan----------------------

The Arakan Army has now been attacking the junta’s Sittwe enclave for over a week. This week it shelled navy ships in the Kaladan River, on the east side of the Sittwe peninsula where the port and the navy base are, hitting one ship and forcing the rest to stay out to the sea side except for brief visits to the navy base. The AA is attacking the navy yard, where hundreds of troops are reported to be stationed. The Arakan are firing mortars and artillery into the navy yard daily, and the ground assault has drawn very near. (People’s Spring 6/3)

Meanwhile, the AA is also attacking in the other peninsular junta enclave at Kyaukphyu, to the south. The Arakan intercepted and turned back a column that tried to break out, and fighting has been intense since May 29. The AA says there were over 40 junta corpses. It is also attacking a navy base just south of Kyaukphyu town. During the first week of June the Arakan captured 4 peripheral outposts of the naval base. Some junta family members have evacuated. The junta is bombing civilian villages in the area, provoking a wave of refugees. (The Irrawaddy B 6/2)

The AA and allied PDFs captured 2 hilltop junta camps in Yeji Township in Irrawaddy Region on June 1. The AA claims it killed “hundreds” of junta troops and captured 10 alive. In the face of its mounting losses, the junta has sent hundreds more reinforcements, who are mostly new conscripts, has kidnapped civilians as human shields, and has stolen vehicles and ox carts to use.

Kachin----------------------

Shweku Township is shaping up as another of the mass graveyards of junta recruits. Over 1,000 troops began advancing toward Kachin’s 2nd city Banmaw from Shweku a month ago, and are still bogged down in fighting in Shweku Township against the Kachin army and allied PDFs. The Kachin say the junta is burying its dead and sending more. Figures aren’t available, however. (People’s Spring 6/6)

The Kachin army announced that it fought 40 clashes against junta troops in the past week. Kachin sources say junta casualties were numerous and consisted of raw forced recruits. One of the actions was attacking a 200-vehicle convoy coming from Mandalay. Despite the attacks, the convoy arrived in the state capital Myitkyina on June 1. In the Shan-Sagaing-Kachin border area, the Kachin army drone-bombed 4 different junta troops columns. Other fighting occurred in Hpakant, Tanai, and Mohnyin Townships. (The 74 Media 6/2)

Chin----------------------

The Chin say they are fending off the junta invasion of southern Chin State. The junta began its invasion of Mindat Township on May 29, causing a running battle with Chin defense forces there. As of last report junta troops are within 15 km of Mindat town, but their losses (as shown in videos) are heavy, and the Chin say they are counteracting the junta’s flanking maneuvers. Planes are bombing Mindat intensively, forcing residents to flee into the mountains. The troops crossed the state boundary from Saw Township in western Magway Region. (Network Media Group 6/4)

The Saw Township PDF says that, along with Chin defense forces, during May it confronted 2 junta columns totalling 1,300 troops on multiple occasions, killing at least 80 and wounding more than 20 and capturing weapons. The troops committed atrocities in civilian communities along the way, including kidnapping for use as human shields, looting, arson, and shelling villages and refugee camps. (People’s Spring 5/31)

Following the dictator’s visit to India at the end of May, the junta wants to re-open the India-Burma-Thailand road route. To that end, on June 3 it bombed a Chin defense camp in Tamu Township of Sagaing Region near Kampat, where the Chin, Sagaing, and India borders meet. The Chin control that stretch of the tri-country route. If the junta can regain control, it can carry on cross-border trade with India. (Zalen News 6/4) India has shipped weapons to the illegal regime across that border.

Kawthoolei----------------------

The 1,000 junta, BGF, and DKBA troops that left Kamamaung to try to get to Papun town in Mutraw District have reached as far as K’Ter Tee, after being stalled at Wa Du by Karen army counter-attacks. It is still 65 km to Papun town, which has been liberated for 2 years but where there are still junta battalions under siege. There have been casualties on both sides, especially the junta. (People’s Spring 6/1)

In Dooplaya District, the Karen have re-launched their assault on the besieged junta holdout camp at Waw Lay, starting June 2. Ground forces attacked the base while the junta resisted, using airstrikes, drones, and mortar fire. A drone fell in adjacent Thailand, killing 3 people and injuring 2, all Burma nationals working there. Junta reinforcements trying to reach Waw Lay from Myawaddy have been stopped by the Karen at Minletpan/Palu. A Karen source estimated 40-50 junta casualties at Waw Lay, and wondered how long the survivors could hold out. After Karen forces captured the peripheral posts, the camp area is now too small to airdrop supplies reliably, and the Karen have intercepted some of them. Waw Lay is the last junta position south of the immediate Myawaddy city area on the Thai border. (Karen Information Center, People’s Spring 6/3)

The junta has launched a drive to try to retake the camp it lost last week in Ler Mu Lah Township of Mergui-Tavoy District. Thus far, the Karen are still holding that camp. (Than Lwin Times 6/4) Meanwhile, the junta troops that recaptured the southern Maw Taung border town are committing atrocities, burning homes and temples, looting private property, and driving out the population as refugees. (Karen Information Center 6/5)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs overran a junta police barracks and Pyu Saw Htee terrorist camp in Pauk Township in Magway Region on June 4 after a 3-day battle, killing at least 40 militants and capturing about 50. The rest of the camp residents fled into a nearby forest, where the PDFs caught 70 of them the next day, seizing 17 weapons. Many captives are the wives and children of the militants. They are being held as prisoners of war until they can be processed. The junta began bombing Pauk Township afterward. (Myaelatt Athan 6/6)

During the early post-coup period in 2021-22, the junta offered central Burma villages a choice: Become victims of, or participants in, the terrorist campaign against civilian communities that the junta thought would undercut the resistance movement. Those who chose participation became ‘Pyu Saw Htees,’ armed and directed by the regime to loot and burn their neighboring villages and commit rape and murder. People’s Defense Forces have since brought many of these collaborators to account.

Fighting is still raging around Indaw town in northern Sagaing Region, and PDFs say the junta is suffering high casualties, though no figures are given. The junta recaptured the town on April 30, but is having trouble holding it against the PDFs who withdrew but are still nearby. (People’s Spring 6/1)

PDFs in Otpo Township in western Bago Region attacked encamped junta troops in a village, killing 12 of them including a platoon commander. The PDFs started with a drone attack followed by a ground assault which lasted 2.5 hours, culminating in a retreat by the junta troops. The PDFs then gave chase. Now junta troops are burning villages in Otpo. (People’s Spring 6/3)

Likewise in Taungtha Township of Mandalay Region, PDFs are harassing a column of 300 troops that are burning and pillaging in communities. During attacks on May 31 and June 1, the PDFs say they killed 10 troops, and they collected some equipment and ammunition from them. (Than Lwin Khet News 6/3)

The National Unity Government Ministry of Defense announced on June 4 that in the past 2 weeks (before the Pauk camp seizure described above), PDFs in Magway Region fought 43 battles and skirmishes with junta troops, killing 31 of them and wounding 52. Eighteen prisoners were taken, including a major, a captain, and a sergeant arrested at a PDF road checkpoint on June 1, and the PDFs captured some weapons and ammunition. Many of these clashes were related to the junta’s invasion of southern Chin State, which had to pass through Saw and Yaw Townships in Magway. PDFs blew up supply convoys using roadside bombs. (Than Lwin Khet News)

Terrorism----------------------

Reports are coming out of 30 to 40 civilians massacred by a column of over 400 junta troops that invaded Myitche in Magway Region, starting May 10. Local residents have seen at least 30 bodies. (Mizzima 6/6)

PDFs and civilian women in Yaw Township say that troops are targeting local women for rape and sexual assault, and ‘unspeakable acts.’ Yaw was invaded by 1,000 junta troops on their way to Chin State from Magway Region. (People’s Spring 6/3)

The Political Prisoners Network of Myanmar announced that 282 prisoners of conscience have been murdered in junta prisons since the 2021 coup attempt, mostly through torture and denial of medical care. (DVB E 6/3)

Scam centers----------------------

In the wake of another American announcement of a crackdown on the borderland scam centers, the junta is mounting another publicity campaign to paint itself as a legitimate government. It has dynamited a few more buildings in the Shwe Kokko scam center and shown the activity on its propaganda channels. The scam centers reap billions of dollars in illicit revenue for Chinese gangsters, the Burma junta, and pro-junta militias that host them. The junta lobbyist in Washington DC, Roger Stone, is touting the Shwe Kokko publicity stunt. In reality the great majority of Shwe Kokko buildings remain standing, and new scam centers are still being built in areas controlled by the junta through its local BGF and DKBA warlords in Kawthookei. (Mizzima E 6/2)

Political & economic----------------------

As the dictator seeks legitimacy from enabling regimes in the region, the National Unity Government has redoubled its efforts to secure international support. Its diplomatic envoy, Dr Sasa, and Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung, have met recently with Canadian lawmakers, American foreign ministry officials and senators, British members of parliament, policy think tanks, the Religious Freedom Commission, organizations of the Burma diaspora, and civil society organizations. The NUG is promoting the enhanced unity represented by the Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF), which brings greater legitimacy in dealings with international institutions. (Khit Thit Media 6/4) Burma’s democratic opposition National Unity Government has always enjoyed the support of government members in various European and democratic countries, but official recognition, which could open the possibility of state-to-state assistance, has been elusive.

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reception of Burma dictator Min Aung Hlaing this week drew widespread condemnation from rights groups. According to The Independent, a mainstream British newspaper, “‘Min Aung Hlaing is not Myanmar’s legitimate president,’ said Mercy Chriesty Barends, chair for the ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights organisation. ‘He is the architect of a brutal coup that overthrew a democratically elected government, and has since presided over a campaign of mass atrocities against his own people.’”

Modi rolled out the red carpet with much diplomatic fanfare for the coup plotter in the latter’s first foreign trip since he crowned himself “president.” The two discussed trade, controlling Indian insurgents based in Burma territory, and potential investments. (DVB E 6/2) India competes with China for regional influence, but rather than back Burma’s pro-democracy forces against China’s puppet regime, Modi has chosen to back the same regime. He may be betting that the junta will somehow regain control of Arakan State, where India wants to build a transit corridor from its isolated northeast region to the Indian Ocean coast at Sittwe. Modi disingenuously insisted that his action is not meant to take sides in Burma’s internal politics, but fêting the dictator does precisely that.

Acting through one of its puppet militias in Burma, China has been strip-mining tungsten in Maington Township of eastern Shan State. The area is controlled by the ethnic Wa militia (UWSA), which is armed and directed by Beijing. Now Russia, too, wants access to those minerals, and is acting through the illegal Naypyitaw regime that it arms and supports. The junta controls part of the mountainous area where the tungsten is found, and a Russian company is preparing a mining venture there. Tungsten is used for aerospace, electronics, and high-tech weapons, and both of these autocratic powers opposed to Burma’s pro-democracy movement want a share of it. Mining in Wa-controlled areas has already resulted in severe toxic pollution of the Salween River, which also flows through Karenni, Kawthoolei, and Thailand before reaching the Indian Ocean. Downstream communities in Thailand have protested the toxic pollution, which affects their health and livelihoods. (Than Lwin Khet News 6/4)

During a June 3 hearing at the USA capitol, senior Senator Mitch McConnell asked foreign minister Marco Rubio whether the Trump administration prefers a Chinese-backed military regime or Burma’s elected democratic leadership. Rubio responded that the administration is looking for creative ways to support Burma’s opposition - without saying it has found any. The exchange indicates that Burma is still considered a foreign policy priority by highly placed people within the American government, but that no action is being taken. (James Shwe 6/4) The Irrawaddy news outlet wrote of “Washington’s sudden realization that it has jettisoned its own leverage in Myanmar.” (6/5)

Other news----------------------

The massive May 31 explosion in Namkahn Township in Ta’angland (northern Shan) that killed at least 43 people and injured 112 and was reported in international headlines, apparently had nothing to do with the war. It occurred at a warehouse for explosives used in mining, and is being treated as an industrial accident. (Than Lwin Khet News)

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How it’s going----------------------

The difference between the junta invading a liberated area, and then holding and administering it, is becoming increasingly clear. It can bomb a place to ruins and then send columns of hundreds of troops to chase out the defenders, and thus claim recapture of previously lost territory. What it can’t do is protect those places against counter-attacks, or establish its civilian administration. Nor can it compel fleeing populations to return to bombed-out, military-occupied towns that are still subject to sporadic fighting.

The Kachin and Arakan armies and Sagaing PDFs in particular are denying governability to the junta through vigorous counter-attacks in the wake of the junta advances of April and May. They are wreaking havoc with newly-arrived troops and chasing enemy administrators out before they can start their jobs.

This harkens back to an earlier phase of the war, in 2022 and 2023, before the resistance began liberating and holding towns and was still operating as a guerrilla movement. The junta held all the towns militarily, but its administration had ceased due to the serial assassination of its bureaucrats and unpredictable strikes by resistance forces. What we are witnessing now is a partial return to that condition, except that the resistance still holds dozens of towns. The junta will need to expend enormous military resources to occupy places, without being able to govern them. The day will come, again, when it can’t hold them either. China’s support can only go so far.

Anyone who interpreted the China-backed shift in momentum of the war as the beginning of the end for the Spring Revolution is finding out it’s far from that simple.

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Chin----------------------

A junta column advanced into Kanpetlet Township in southern Chin State on May 26, but was savaged by Chin defense forces and retreated in disarray. (People’s Spring 5/27)

The Yaw Defense Force, a PDF in adjacent Yaw Township of Magway Region, reported that junta troops are abducting civilians as human shields, kidnapping young men for forced military service, and sexually assaulting women. The YDF warned civilians to leave the area for their safety. (Burma News International 5/27)

Junta forces coming from Tedim in northern Chin State have nearly reached the India border town of Rikawdar, which Chin forces have held for nearly 2 years. (People’s Spring 5/29)

Ten airplanes dropped over 30 bombs in terrorist airstrikes on Matupi town in southern Chin State on May 26. (Matupi Times 5/26) Such intensive bombing usually precedes a ground invasion, though junta troops are still a long way from Matupi.

Arakan----------------------

The Arakan Army attacked junta perimeter positions around Sittwe, capital city of Arakan State, from May 13 to 15, probing for weaknesses. On May 28 the AA began attacking a small naval base at the northern edge of the city. The junta has responded by bombing civilian areas in adjacent Ponnajun and Kyauktaw Townships. Anticipating a full assault on Sittwe, which is located at the tip of a peninsula, the junta has built a line of bunkers and metal fences along both the land and the sea fronts. On May 19 it declared a curfew with a shoot-to-kill order for anyone moving after dark without permission. (People’s Spring 5/28)

A new video shows the Arakan Army loading an armored vehicle aboard a cargo boat, both captured previously from the junta. The loading site or destination of the vehicle aren’t disclosed, but it shows some of what the junta is up against in Arakan. (Voice of Spring 5/29)

Approximately 1,000 junta troops are massing in Mindon Township of Magway Region, purportedly in preparation for a drive toward Arakan State, which is almost entirely liberated. Those troops have now reached the foothills of the Arakan Range of mountains that separate Arakan from central Burma. (People’s Spring 5/28)

The junta’s ‘meat grinder’ combat strategy is on full display at the Arakan Army’s siege of the junta Battalion 344 artillery camp in Yeji Township of Irrawaddy Region, where the regime continues to ship in fresh recruits and ship out casualties. On May 26 14 trucks loaded with dead and wounded troops left the camp to return to Pathein hospital in the rear. This comes after a battalion commander was killed by a sniper on May 19, the 2nd one to fall. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/28)

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army and allied PDFs continue to mount counter-attacks against the junta forces that recently occupied Indaw, Kathah, and Mawlu towns. Fighting has closed sections of the Mandalay-Myitkyina highway, which the junta briefly re-opened earlier this month. On May 24 the Kachin ambushed a junta convoy and killed 13 troops, as well as seizing some weapons and ammunition, and they say junta troops are fleeing some of their camps due to the counter-attacks. (People’s Spring 5/24, Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/27)

After the junta regained control of Indaw and Mawlu towns in northern Sagaing Region on April 30 and May 5, respectively, it sent its bureaucrats to begin military administration. Those personnel have now fled again following attacks by the Kachin army and PDFs close to the towns. (Karenni People’s Voice 5/24)

Currently, fighting is raging where Kachin, Shan, and Sagaing meet, in Shwebo, Mabein, and Indaw Townships. (People’s Spring 5/29) There are reports that the junta wants to regain control of the rare earth mineral-producing region along the China border, but its troops are still a long way from there.

After taking control of Saipyin village on the Mandalay-Myitkyina highway in northern Sagaing Region on May 21, the Kachin army found that some residents had been acting as spies for the junta, and had been amplifying its propaganda locally. The Kachin are holding those enemy agents, and are warning others in the area against collusion with the illegal military regime. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 5/24)

The Kachin army and allied drone squads have been identifying and destroying junta drones on the ground. FPV drone footage also shows a lethal drone flying into a van full of junta troops and exploding, and another one killing troops as they played with water.

FPV drone videos show Kachin army and allied group drones destroying junta drones on the ground, and invading vehicles, bunkers, and buildings to blow up enemy troops and assets. (Voice of Spring 5/24)

Meanwhile, the junta is sending 3,000 additional new conscripts to the battle in Hpakant, where it has been suffering high casualties without achieving any progress against the Kachin army. Many of the casualties have been the inexperienced and unwilling conscripts. (People’s Spring 5/29)

Kawthoolei----------------------

The Karen army attacked and captured another junta camp in Ler Mu Lah Township of Mergui-Tavoy District (Palaw) on May 29 after a 10-day battle. Many weapons and some food were seized. No word on casualties yet, but a Karen army drone filmed almost all of the 80 of the junta troops fleeing the camp. (Than Lwin Times 5/30) Karen army Brigade 4 and its PDF allies have captured a string of junta positions this year, though they lost the Maw Taung border post.

Junta troops from Tavoy city (Dawei) are advancing on the Htee Khee border post in Mergui-Tavoy District, after having recaptured the Maw Taung border crossing further south on May 19. The Karen army liberated Htee Khee one year ago. The junta has been attempting since that time to get it back, without success, but it has more momentum at this time. (Mizzima B 5/24)

The Karen army Brigade 3 also raided 2 junta camps in Moo Township of Kler Lwi Htoo District on May 22 and 23, killing 6 troops including an officer and confiscating some weapons, ammunition, protective gear, grenades, and other equipment. (Voice of Spring 5/25) Junta troops have been raiding and looting villages in Ler Doh Township west of the Sittaung River, stealing belongings and forcing residents to flee as refugees. (Karen News 5/26)

A video shows Karen army soldiers intercepting at least 2 parachuted supply loads meant for the junta’s besieged base at Waw Lay in Dooplaya District. The soldiers unpacked mortar shells, food, and clothing air-dropped by junta planes. (Maung News 5/24) Fierce fighting continues at Palu/Minletpan, where junta troops are still not able to advance southward, and at Waw Lay where Karen army Brigade 6 has been besieging the junta’s last remaining base in the area. (People’s Spring 5/25)

Mon----------------------

The Mon Ye Bilu PDF suffered a serious blow on May 27 when spies reported the location of its camp and junta jets bombed it, destroying the camp and killing 12 soldiers and wounding at least 20. The commander was away on a front line operation so was not affected. (The Irrawaddy 5/27)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs stormed a pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militia camp in Myaing Township of Magway Region after a 2-day battle on May 23, despite over 40 airstrikes by the junta to try to prevent it. The PDFs captured a number of weapons and some ammunition. More importantly, 40 Pyus were captured alive and 49 civilian hostages were rescued, including women and children who had been held for up to 5 years.

The junta responded to the loss of its Myaing camp by invading and destroying civilian villages. PDFs then attacked the marauding troops with remotely-detonated bombs, killing at least 15 by their count and wounding others. A video shows inert troop bodies after a blast and troops carrying away casualties. (Karenni People’s Voice 5/27)

PDFs attacked a convoy of 300 troops in Nyaung Oo Township of Mandalay Region on May 24, killing at least 21 and wounding others. The convoy retreated, and approximately 20 troops then fled their battalions with their weapons. They were all recent forced recruits. The survivors have been searching for the deserters, 5 of whom have reached the safety of the PDF battalions. (People’s Spring 5/28) As usual, the junta reacted to its losses by attacking civilian communities, burning over 250 homes in several villages. (Mizzima 5/29)

PDFs blew up a junta supply convoy in Myinchan Township on May 24, killing 4 out of the 20 troops on the spot including one who had defected from a PDF after committing crimes. The PDFs seized a vehicle and some weapons. Seven more troops died later in the hospital from wounds from the roadside bombs. (People’s Spring 5/26)

The May 19 rocket attack on the junta’s northwest regional command HQ in Monywa, reported last week, is now known to have killed 8 junta troops and wounded more than 20. Four 107mm shock missiles exploded within the command campus. There are reports that senior officers are among the dead. At least 5 resistance forces coordinated to carry out the attack. (Mizzima E 5/24)

Two rockets exploded in Thibaw town in northern Shan State on May 24. Who fired them isn’t known. Thibaw was returned to junta control by the Ta’ang army last October under Chinese pressure, but the surrounding areas are occupied by the Kokang army and the northern Shan SSPP militia. Like the junta, the Kokang also work for China, and the SSPP is of ambiguous political loyalty, but the junta’s control of the area is tenuous and its administration isn’t functional. Mortar fire was reported in March. (People’s Spring 5/24)

A local junta administrator in Paungde Township of Bago Region, who was involved in extortion of households, was assassinated on May 23. (Maung News 5/26)

China/junta actions----------------------

As it has been doing in Arakan, Karenni, and elsewhere, the junta is now manufacturing a famine in Pakokku district of Magway Region by blocking transport of food and medicines into the area. (The Irrawaddy B 5/24) This is part of the Burma military’s infamous “four cuts” strategy to subdue popular resistance - cutting off access to food, money, information, and the civilian population.

China is using the Burma junta’s propaganda media to try to mitigate the strong anti-China public sentiment in Burma. This includes TV, radio, and online social media. (The Irrawaddy B 5/30)

Political & economic----------------------

A grouping of 53 Burma-centered civil society organizations, many of them located in Europe and elsewhere, addressed a letter on May 24 to the foreign ministers of India, the USA, Japan, and Australia (“The Quad”), urging them to “recognize Myanmar’s crisis as an urgent global security challenge [that is] increasingly driving regional instability, transnational crime, and broader security threats across the Indo-Pacific.” It cites the scam centers, drug trafficking, and money laundering as crimes that are thriving as a result of the 2021 attempted coup and failure of the Burma state. The organizations say “regional security…cannot be achieved while Myanmar remains under military rule,” and urge The Quad not to consider legitimizing the pseudo-civilian military dictatorship, and instead to send cross-border assistance to non-junta-related humanitarian organizations, especially from India, and engage with ethnic homeland governments and other “governance structures” (without naming the National Unity Government.) (Mizzima E 5/24)

The 4 foreign ministers of The Quad responded with a joint statement on May 26, promising no assistance at all, but making a general recommendation that Burma follow ASEAN’s weak 5 point program, that political prisoners be released, a vague call for an “end to violence,” allowing humanitarian assistance, and “dialogue between all parties.” (People’s Spring 5/28) As stated elsewhere, “dialogue between all parties” suggests that pro-democracy forces negotiate a deal with a regime that has never honored any agreement, and that is responsible for atrocities and horrors against its own population - essentially a surrender by the pro-democracy movement. Evidently Burma can expect no support from The Quad.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi then went further, legitimizing Burma dictator Min Aung Hlaing by hosting a visit to New Delhi beginning May 29. Burma citizens organized a protest, but Indian police shut it down. The National Unity Government and international rights groups lodged protests against the New Delhi visit. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/28) Modi’s government has been an enabler of the illegal regime since the 2021 attempted coup, sending weapons and other supplies to use against the population.

The American government has again announced a reward of $10 million for information leading to the dismantling of a scam center, this one specifically at Kyaukkhat, south of Myawaddy on the Kawthoolei-Thai border, controlled by the pro-junta DKBA splinter militia. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/25)

Symptomatic of the breakdown of law and order and the spread of corruption after the 2021 coup attempt, criminals have stationed themselves throughout the Yangon General Hospital and are extorting money from patients and their families in exchange for access to each of the hospital’s services and offices. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 5/24) This mirrors the corruption and extortion at banks, schools, and other government offices and at police checkpoints on the roads.

Norway’s biennial Stafanus Prize for human rights was awarded to Kachin activist Ja Saing, on behalf of everyone in Burma who has fought for human rights against the military dictatorship. The Stafanus Prize comes with a cash award of €10,000, which will be used to continue documenting human rights abuses in Burma and to strengthen civil society networks during the revolution. (The Irrawaddy B 5/29)

Facebook has removed 109 accounts linked to Burma’s illegal military regime and its crony companies and propaganda outlets. They include companies like Mytel telecommunications, wholly owned by the regime, and MRTV and MWD propaganda television channels. The purge comes in response to urging by the Justice for Myanmar human rights group and the Independent Myanmar News Media Council. Other platforms like Telegram, TikTok, and Google still support the terrorist accounts. (Network Media Group 5/27)

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How it’s going----------------------

Western donors continue to contradict themselves by imposing sanctions on the military regime on the one hand, while also dumping humanitarian aid into its hands to be misused for its purposes. This week the European Union allocated €8 million for humanitarian assistance to alleviate the growing food crisis in Burma. That would be commendable, if the EU hadn’t decided to hand the whole package to the United Nations World Food Program for distribution. The WFP, and all UN agencies, collude with the illegal regime by signing contracts (MOUs) with it, paying it fees and taxes, and allowing the junta to decide who gets the aid. The junta doesn’t allow any of it into areas it doesn’t control, which is a majority of the country and where most hungry and displaced people live. Instead, foreign donations are repurposed for the regime’s use, or simply left undistributed.

And it’s not only the UN. Norwegian embassy officials met this week with the regime’s “governor” for Arakan State, also regarding assistance for internal refugees. Not only does that “governor” have no inclination to send aid to conflict-affected people, he also lacks the power to do so, since the junta controls less than 5% of Arakan State and bombs the rest.

This phenomenon is symptomatic of a worldwide diplomatic dysfunction, which is the tendency to automatically accord legitimacy to any band of armed criminals that happens to seize control of the apparatus of a state. In Burma, the UN, embassies, and international aid organizations have been doing that since the attempted coup in 2021. They treat the coup plotters as some sort of “government,” and ignore the legitimate National Unity Government and the ethnic homeland governments that represent the people of Burma - and which have the power to distribute humanitarian assistance to the people who need it, unlike the regime.

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To illustrate that misguided diplomatic tendency, news came on May 20 that UN Special Envoy for Myanmar Julie Bishop will this month again honor the dictator with her 4th visit, to encourage “all stakeholders” to seek a “political solution” to the civil war through “dialogue.” (Myanmar Now 5/21) In practice, this amounts to demanding that the pro-democracy forces accept the continuation of the murderous dictatorship in some form, which would mean surrender and loss of everything they have fought for. Bishop has been denounced as an apologist for the coup plotters.

Following the March 2025 earthquake and Cyclone Mocha in May 2023, aid donors dumped thousands of tons of aid into the junta’s hands, only to see it diverted to military purposes and withheld from people in need. UN officials justify this mismanagement by the need to move materials “at scale.” Their task is simply to get rid of the stuff, regardless of where it goes.

The UN, Red Cross, embassies, and other big aid industry players have a fear of dealing with ethnic homeland governments like the Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Organization, United League of Arakan, Karenni Interim Executive Council, as well as the National Unity Government. In their laziness, the internationals lump them all as “armed rebels,” and delegitimize them with the term “non-state actors.” They claim that resistance governance bodies commit atrocities and traffic in drugs - preferring to deal instead with the junta regime that actually does those things on a large scale *and* commits daily terrorist atrocities like bombing civilians.

Before the new American administration wiped out its aid agency USAID, the Americans at least understood that real aid must go through cross-border channels, to the very governance bodies that the UN and Red Cross call “non-state actors,” as well as to local organizations that do the actual aid delivery on the ground. Up through 2024 American money was enabling the KNU’s refugee agency, the CIDKP, to feed tens of thousands of war-displaced people in Kawthoolei. Europeans and UN agencies somehow failed to learn from this example.

By staying in its comfort zone and treating the terrorist regime like a “government,” the legacy aid industry contributes to the isolation of the people of Burma, who must fight the military cartel and its Chinese sponsors alone. If it really wanted to help, the aid industry would get creative, develop cross-border channels to the ethnic homeland governments and the NUG that can deliver aid where it’s needed, and abandon links with the military regime, regardless of the inconvenience that would entail. Sadly, the aid industry and the diplomatic corps lack that sort of vision or agility.

Arakan----------------------

The Arakan Army’s siege of the junta 344th artillery battalion in Yeji Township of Irrawaddy Region paid off on May 15 when it managed to overrun the base. Due to intense airstrikes, the Arakan then pulled back again as the junta destroyed its own base. (People’s Spring 5/17) On May 19 the deputy commander of the base was killed by an AA sniper. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/20)

Worried that the AA is getting too close to it weapons factories in Magway Region, the junta has sent 4 battalions encompassing 500 troops to reinforce the ones in Seikphyu Township. They arrived May 16. (People’s Spring 5/17) Similarly, the AA’s approach to the No. 16 weapons factory in Padaung Township in western Bago Region has junta family members fleeing. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/17)

Chin----------------------

Junta troops recaptured Tonzan town in northern Chin State on May 19. They were supported by an ethnic proxy militia, the ZRA. Chin defense forces had liberated the town in May 2024. The 600 troop column was supported by intensive junta aerial and drone bombing which forced the Chin to withdraw from the town. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/19) The junta troops are now headed for the India border town of Reekodar.

Another enemy column invaded Saw Township of Magway Region on the border of southern Chin State last week and then advanced toward the liberated Chin town of Kanpetlet, which the junta is bombing intensively ahead of a ground assault to capture the town. (Mandalay Free Press, People’s Spring 5/21) The junta is also bombing the southern Chin towns of Mindat and Matupi, which could be on the path of troops ultimately headed toward northern Arakan State. (Matupi Times 5/20)

As the junta continues to try to connect to the state capital Hakha from the recently-subdued Falam town, it is being attacked by Chin defense forces. Chin snipers fired on troops coming out of Falam on May 15, killing 11 of them including an officer believed to be a battalion commander. (People’s Spring 5/16)

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin, along with local PDFs, have been counter-attacking the junta’s recent takeover of northern Sagaing Region. The Kachin army and PDFs seized control of a village in Indaw Township on the Mandalay-Myitkyina highway on May 21, cutting the junta’s resupply route that was just opened two weeks ago. The Kachin say they inflicted “heavy casualties” (numbers not available) and seized weapons. This came after PDFs overran a junta police barracks on May 14 in southern Sagaing. (People’s Spring 5/22)

The Kachin are also counter-attacking around Mawlu, which the junta captured 2 weeks ago.

Battles have flared in Banmaw, Kachin’s 2nd city, starting May 15, as junta troops opened fire on Kachin-held positions. The Kachin have been trying to wear down the remaining junta battalions in Banmaw since December 2024. Now the junta is trying to send 1,000 reinforcements along the Mandalay-Myitkyina highway, and on May 18 troops in Shweku recaptured one of their own positions on the way toward Banmaw, which was taken from them by the Kachin army on April 23. The battle lasted 3 days. (People’s Spring 5/21)

Kawthoolei----------------------

Junta troops retook the border town of Mawtaung in southern Mergui-Tavoy District on May 19. Karen forces had run out of ammunition and withdrew 4 days previous under intense aerial bombardment. Mawtaung had been liberated since November 2025. (Mizzima 5/19)

A pro-Karen PDF caught and killed a junta administrator in Kawthaung, at the far southernmost tip of Burma in KNU Mergui-Tavoy District, on May 13. He was active in junta operations against local defense forces, and was carrying PDF uniforms when he was caught. (Than Lwin Times 5/18)

Also in Mergui-Tavoy, Karen PDFs attacked a junta supply convoy near Myeik on May 14, destroying a truck and killing 5 of the troops providing security, while some new junta troops involved in the assault on Maw Taung defected to the Karen army. (People’s Spring 5/18)

Meanwhile in Mutraw District, a column of 500 troops continues to attack slowly up the road from Kamamaung toward the liberated town of Papun. It has advanced as far as Wa Tho Hta (Ye Pu), ⅔ of the way from Kamamaung to the junta base at K’Ter Ti. The Karen army drone-bombs and fires on the column daily, while the junta forces fire mortars into surrounding civilian communities and burn them down. (Local sources, People’s Spring 5/21)

The pro-junta splinter militias BGF and DKBA have been relocating their scam center workers from Myawaddy city to points south along the Thai border since May 10. (Karen Information Center 5/22) The junta decreed a new death penalty for scam center operatives, but because the junta itself draws a lucrative revenue stream from these crime hubs, the likelihood of any but a few token individuals facing justice is extremely low.

Karenni----------------------

Junta troops are trying to advance in Demawso and Mobye Townships, resulting in battles with Karenni defenders. The junta burned down a nunnery in Demawso Township on May 13. In Mobye, junta and affiliated PNO operatives are firing into refugee camps with mortars and drones, looting civilian property, and torching communities. (People’s Spring 5/19, Kantarawaddy Times 5/21)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

Even in this time of junta offensives, resistance forces still manage to capture some junta positions. On May 14, PDFs in Depayin Township stormed a junta police barracks after a 2-day assault, seizing weapons and ammunition. Eleven junta troops were killed and the camp commander fled. Troops there had been raiding and pillaging surrounding villages, and used the base to provide target locations for terror airstrikes. After driving out the troops and removing the weapons, the PDFs withdrew in anticipation of bombing. (Myanmar Now 5/19) The junta counter-attacked the following day, too late to catch the PDFs, but they retaliated against nearby civilian villages.

The junta’s hold on upper Sagaing is anything but consolidated. PDFs and now the Arakan and Kachin armies continue to attack convoys and troop columns, inflicting casualties and seizing weapons. In Indaw Township, PDF attacks starting May 17 have killed at least 4 troops. Fierce fighting is ongoing just 3 km south of Indaw town, which junta troops re-entered on April 30. (People’s Spring 5/18, Kachin News Group 5/21)

National Unity Government troops and PDFs fired four 107mm shock missiles into the junta’s northwest command HQ, causing explosions and casualties, but details of the damage aren’t known. (People’s Spring 5/21)

PDFs in Seikphyu Township of Magway Region used roadside bombs to attack a junta convoy twice on May 16-17, first as it carried 250 pound bombs for jets from the No. 21 weapons factory, and then as it came back carrying raw materials the next day. A truck was destroyed on the 2nd day. (People’s Spring 5/19)

On May 20 junta jets killed 5 of their own soldiers when they bombed a PDF-run prisoner of war camp in Indaw Township. (People’s Spring 5/21)

In Ayadaw Township, PDFs have been surrounding and attacking camps of junta troops and their Pyu Saw Htee proxy militia. Now the troops are kidnapping civilians to use as human shields as they mount a counter-offensive against the PDFs. At least 50 people have been abducted thus far. (People’s Spring 5/19)

View from PDF-operated FPV drones as they strike targets including junta vehicles, mortar installations, and troops in Htee Chaing, Kathah, and Indaw Townships on May 10 & 11. (Voice of Spring 5/17)

China/junta crimes----------------------

Since the start of the pseudo-civilian government on April 10, at least 122 civilians have been killed in 219 airstrikes by the military regime. (DVB E 5/17)

The Karenni Human Rights Group says the junta is intentionally causing famine in Karenni by targeting farmers and rural communities with terrorist attacks, endangering the food supply through airstrikes and drone bombing in Demawso, Hpruso, and Pekhon Townships. (People’s Spring 5/16)

China and its Burma puppet regime are now demanding that the Ta’ang ethnic force, TNLA, give up 4 of the last 6 townships it still controls. Those are Namtu, Monglon, Mongngawt and Namhkam. The TNLA has already lost or been forced by China to give up over half of the territory it gained during Operation 10/27 in late 2023-mid 2024. The latest demand, made during China-mandated meetings in Kunming, China, would leave the TNLA with only Namkhan and Monton, the 2 it had before the 2021 coup attempt, and would place ethnic Ta’ang populations under junta control. The TNLA rejected the demand on May 20, but as a spent force, it doesn’t have the wherewithal to resist the China/junta demands on its territory indefinitely. (The Irrawaddy E 5/19, Burma Pressphoto Agency 5/20)

Armed with the “household lists” that tell where every person lives, troops are raiding homes in Yangon at night and dragging away young men for forced military service. (People’s Spring 5/18) Army kidnappers have been missing their quotas, resulting in delays in sending groups of abductees to training because of insufficient numbers. (People’s Spring 5/18, 5/19)

The junta had promised that it wouldn’t kidnap young men at a festival in Pwint Phyu in Magway Region, but on May 19 it did just that. After luring people to the festival, junta operatives grabbed nearly 40 young men for forced military service. Some of those abducted were able to pay ransoms of up to 300,000 kyats (US$70). (Than Lwin Times 5/21)

Junta boss Min Aung Hlaing is reportedly planning to build a ‘hall of dictators’ featuring statues of past authoritarians as well as himself. The so-called “union hall of honor” would fetishize military rulers who supposedly preserved Burma unity against dissolution, starting with General Ne Win who pulled off the first coup in 1962, followed by his successors down to the current dictator. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 5/21) Burma’s military dictators have historically justified their absolutist rule by invoking fears of national break-up, which ironically stirs the desires of oppressed minorities to separate from Burma.

Other junta enablers----------------------

The government of India sent a ship carrying 400 tons of “humanitarian aid” to the junta enclave of Sittwe on the Arakan coast, knowing that Burma’s military regime routinely diverts goods meant for humanitarian assistance to its own purposes. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/16) India has been a consistent supporter of Burma’s terrorist regime, which is difficult to interpret logically, since the Arakan Army controls the territory through which India’s intended commercial corridor connecting its northeast states to the Indian Ocean must pass.

A UK-USA company that makes components for luxury yachts has pleaded guilty to illegally importing teak lumber from sanctioned Burma companies that are cronies of the military regime. Sunseeker International marketed the goods valued at over US$4 million. The USA government imposed a fine of $200,000 and is due for further sentencing in August. In 2024 the UK government fined Sunseeker £358,759 for the same type of illegal timber trafficking, which financially supports the terrorist regime in Burma. (Kachin Daily 5/17)

Malaysia is apparently following Thailand’s lead in moving to legitimize the pseudo-civilian “government” of Burma’s illegal military regime. Malaysian foreign minister Mohamed Hassan visited the military capital Naypyitaw on May 19 to talk about restoring diplomatic relations that Malaysia severed after the 2021 coup attempt. (People’s Spring 5/20)

Political & economic----------------------

In addition to the scarce water and electricity and dangerous crime levels in Yangon, reported last week, the junta’s electric company has been jacking up power bills to customers by about 60%, despite the lack of power being delivered. The electricity bill surge is exacerbating the difficult living situation under the coup regime. (People’s Spring 5/19)

Throughout the national collapse, the junta has strenuously controlled a central core of the country that includes Yangon, Mandalay, and the tourist attraction of Bagan, a cultural heritage site full of ancient temples. Keeping these areas open for a small trickle of foreign travelers has served to preserve an illusion of normalcy. The diversion of police to fight in the war, however, combined with the general corruption of the regime, has allowed crime to proliferate, leading to personal insecurity even in these tightly-controlled areas. Bagan has seen a rise in kidnappings for ransom by criminals without direct affiliation to the regime, which itself has been responsible for ransom kidnappings elsewhere, especially in conjunction with forced military recruitment. (Myanmar Now 5/21)

Despite the regime’s assurances to citizens that corruption by public servants won’t be tolerated, bureaucrats continue to demand bribes for the most basic services, including those required by the regime, such as vehicle registration, ID cards, and household lists. (Myanmar Pressphoto Agency 5/21)

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Kachin----------------------

As the Kachin army continued to attack junta positions in Lawng Hkang on the eastern fringe of Hpakant town, the junta sent 300 reinforcements on May 6-7. On May 10 approximately 100 of them were evacuated with serious injuries. The fight is still ongoing. (Kachin News Group 5/12)

The column of 500 junta troops that took over Mawlu town on the Sagaing-Kachin boundary and then advanced into Mohnyin Township was repulsed by the Kachin army during a May 11 battle. The Kachin say the junta suffered heavy casualties and the Kachin had to dispose of the bodies, but numbers aren’t given. The Kachin also seized a number of weapons.

Junta troops are now invading Mabein Township in the northwesternmost corner of Shan State, which is largely inhabited by Kachin people and has been administered by the Kachin army since January 2024. The junta has been rolling back the edges of Kachin army control in Sagaing Region to the immediate west of Mabein. (People’s Spring 5/11)

With the junta’s recapture of the Mandalay-Myitkyina highway, it sent a convoy of 400 vehicles with supplies and reinforcements to Myitkyina, capital of Kachin State, last week. (The Irrawaddy E 5/15)

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Arakan----------------------

On May 10 and 11 the Arakan Army and allied PDFs attacked a junta convoy twice as it moved between Htee Chaing and Kathah towns in northern Sagaing, killing 6 troops and destroying 2 trucks carrying supplies. They seized weapons and equipment. (People’s Spring 5/13) Two days later on May 13 the AA captured a junta base in Indaw Township, also in northern Sagaing, where the junta has been taking back towns from PDF and Kachin army control recently. (Development Media Group 5/15) Northern Sagaing Region is nowhere near Arakan territory nor even in northern Shan State where the AA was born and had a role during Operation 10/27.

The junta is trying to break out of the tight perimeter where the AA has contained it in Kyauk Phyu, the coastal enclave where the junta still has a toehold. Fighting has been intense, but there is no outcome yet. (Mizzima 5/15)

Junta troop losses are reportedly high in the battles with the AA in Irrawaddy Region, prompting the regime to step up kidnapping of youths for abbreviated military training and sending them prematurely to the front lines. The battles are in Thapaung, Laymet Hna, and Yeji Townships. Numbers, however, aren’t available. (Salween Press 5/15) The junta is trying to mask the heavy losses by burying the dead and treating the wounded discreetly or secretly. The abandonment of troop corpses is leading to disgruntlement against officers. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/15)

Meanwhile, the AA continues to fight its way closer to the junta weapons factories in western Bago and Magway Regions, capturing some bunkers and weapons, despite constant aerial bombardment. (People’s Spring 5/14)

During the late April visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi to the junta capital Naypyitaw, dictator Min Aung Hlaing requested that China pressure the Arakan Army to surrender as it has done successfully with the Kokang and Ta’ang ethnic armies. The dictator wants Arakan, which is almost entirely liberated, to return to his control. (Khit Thit Media 5/12) Arakan does not border on China, however, and is thus immune to the border closures and economic blockade that China used against the Kokang and Ta’ang. Arakan contains the western end of China’s gas and oil pipelines and the sites of intended Chinese investments, such as a rail corridor to the Indian Ocean. The Arakan Army is also very powerful militarily.

Kawthoolei----------------------

The junta is massing 500 troops in the southern tip of Mutraw Township, the only part it controls, in preparation for an apparent drive to reinforce its surrounded and besieged battalions south of Papun town, which has been liberated since March 2024. The troops have divided into 3 columns advancing up the Kamamaung-Papun road and on either side of it, but Karen forces are bombing them daily with drones and mortars. (Karen Information Center 5/14) The junta has been trying to advance toward Papun for most of a year, but has been stopped at a point called Wa Du by the Karen army. It used the multi-column tactic successfully last year to retake control of the Asia Highway in Dooplaya District, by threatening to surround the Karen defenders and forcing them to withdraw.

In Doo Tha Htoo District, junta troops have taken back control of their old base at Lay Kay, which the Karen army held for a month. The Karen attempt to also take the Win Ta Pan base has stalled as the junta sent reinforcements. (Than Lwin Times 5/14) The junta is also trying to retake areas in Kler Lwi Htoo District that were recently lost to the Karen army. (Mizzima 5/14)

In Dooplaya District, junta troops have been trying since last October to fight their way up the old, unpaved Asia Highway from northern Kaw T’Ree town (Kawkareik) through the Dawna Range, but have been unable to dislodge the Karen army. Now they have brought in high-explosive Chinese drones. They are also burning and bombing farms to keep people from working their land, leading to food shortages, as part of the terrorist strategy against the civilian population. (Karen Information Center 5/13)

In Mergui-Tavoy District in the far south, the junta is also trying to retake the Maw Taung border crossing to Thailand, concentrating hundreds of troops with armored vehicles several kilometers to the west. On May 14 Karen forces attacked them and killed 5. (Than Lwin Times 5/16)

Chin----------------------

Six hundred junta troops were sent from Sagaing Region to occupied Tedim town in northern Chin during April, and have been trying to advance toward the liberated town of Tonzan, but are meeting stiff resistance from Chin defense forces. Reports say junta casualties are high and the Chin have also suffered losses, but numbers aren’t given yet. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/14)

The junta troops that invaded Falam town in April have been trying to advance down the road toward the state capital Hakha. On May 14 some troops from Hakha tried to meet them, but were attacked by Chin defense forces. Senior officers were wounded and 4 soldiers were killed, and the column had to turn back. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/15)

The regime has been heavily bombing Mindat town in southern Chin, suggesting that it is preparing a ground invasion as it did in Falam. (People’s Spring 5/15) Meanwhile, 3 columns of troops have invaded Saw Township in the northwestern corner of Magway Region, on their way to attacking Mindat. In Saw, they have been kidnapping and torturing local youth and shot 2 people to death. (Mandalay Free Press 5/15) There is speculation that that thrust is ultimately aimed at northern Arakan State, which is entirely liberated.

Karenni----------------------

Seeking to further expand its footprint in Karenni State, the junta is attacking rural areas of eastern Hpruso Township, where several thousand refugees had been camped. They burned a refugee camp. Those people have now been forced to relocate again. (People’s Spring 5/11)

A junta column left Mobye town to attack the base of the Karenni Alpha 01 Battalion on May 13. The Karenni forces withdrew from the camp, then counter-attacked, leading to a 3-hour battle. At least 4 junta troops were killed and at least 10 wounded, and 2 Karenni soldiers also died, and the Karenni drove the junta troops back out. (Than Lwin Khet News 5/15)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

A large junta offensive in southern Mandalay Region is retaking control of previously liberated rural areas in Taungtha, Nganzon, and Myinchan Townships, displacing thousands of civilians as refugees and pushing the PDFs across the Irrawaddy River into Magway Region. This follows a similar offensive in northern Sagaing Region in Kathah, Indaw, and Mawlu. If the junta can control the banks of the Irrawaddy, it can begin sending flotillas northward again toward Kachin State. (Myanmar Now 5/11)

These junta offensives are not going unopposed by PDFs. PDFs raided a junta camp in Myinchan Township on May 7, killing 8 troops and wounding 9 out of the 30 who were there. (Khit Thit Media 5/10) During a May 10 attack on a junta column in Sagaing Region’s Yinmapin Township, the PDFs recovered property stolen by the troops and returned it to the civilian owners, and also wounded 10 troops and received 5 defectors from the junta. (People’s Spring 5/13)

After those northern Sagaing towns fell in the past month, the junta sent a 400-vehicle convoy there on May 9, mostly carrying its administrative personnel to try to set up governance. (People’s Spring 5/12) PDFs intercepted the column in Indaw Township on May 13, inflicting casualties and forcing it to retreat. (People’s Spring 5/15)

PDFs in western Bago Region launched various stealth attacks on junta positions. On May 5 they ambushed an army column in Otpo Township and killed 4 troops, on May 9 they shot up a junta road checkpoint in Letpadan Township, and on May 10 they attacked a pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militia camp in Pyay Township, killing 2 of the terrorists and wounding 6. (People’s Spring 5/11)

China/Junta crimes----------------------

The National Unity Government reports that the pseudo-civilian government of the Burma military cartel killed 138 civilians through airstrikes during April 2026; 589 houses were destroyed, 11 schools, 18 religious buildings, and 7 clinics or hospitals. (People’s Spring 5/11)

A column of 150 troops is invading, looting, and burning villages in Kani Township in Sagaing Region. They have torched 3 entire villages thus far. (Myaelatt Athan 5/14)

A junta administrator active in the kidnapping of young men for forced military duty was assassinated at his home in Tavoy city (Dawei) along with his wife on May 11. The responsible party isn’t known. (Than Lwin Times 5/12) Not far to the north in Mon State, a junta deputy battalion commander was killed as he drove his car on May 11. (Mizzima 5/12) A junta officer and a soldier were assassinated in Kalay in western Sagaing Region on May 12. (Khit Thit Media 5/14) This type of targeted attacks on the junta apparatus was a feature of the guerrilla-style resistance movement before it began liberating and governing territory, and is now apparently making a comeback.

Junta operatives kidnapped nearly 150 young men in one day in Sagaing town, on May 11. The kidnappings are for forced military service. Some were allowed to ransom their freedom for 2 million kyats (about US$500.) (People’s Spring 5/12)

The military regime is increasing its police-state control of the population, imposing a new all-encompassing registry of conscription-age young men that it will draw from for its war of attrition. Before now, the junta has been grabbing men off the street, from workplaces, and from homes, or wherever it saw them. The new registry will be more systematic and harder to evade, meaning that being sent to the war is now far more certain. (Than Lwin Times 5/16)

The Yangon international airport has become rife with extortion as police, security personnel, and customs agents demand cash from both arriving and departing travelers. This mirrors the rampant extortion that junta personnel have been imposing on domestic road travelers since the 2021 coup attempt. (Mizzima 5/12)

Political & economic----------------------

The sanctions imposed by the European Union through April 2027 have now been joined by 11 non-EU countries, including Norway, Ukraine, Serbia and Iceland among others. The sanctions target dictator Min Aung Hlaing and other junta members as well as crony companies involved in the terrorism against the national population. (Maung News 5/14)

The Burma embassy in London, UK, which is controlled by the junta, had to cancel a planned May 14 event called “Open Dialogue,” designed to promote the fiction of a new civilian government in Naypyitaw. The Burma Campaign UK and other protesters brought so much negative attention to the event that the junta scrubbed it. (Karenni People’s Voice 5/14)

By forcing overseas Burma workers to remit their income through junta channels using an artificially low exchange rate, the regime was able to skim US$5.6 billion from those wages during the past year. That makes it the regime’s largest source of hard foreign currency, accounting for 38%. (People’s Spring 5/15)

Thai border authorities are imposing new restrictions on people and vehicles crossing into Thailand from junta-occupied Myawaddy in Kawthoolei. They want guarantees to ensure that Burma citizens return to their country after their visits, since a growing number are crossing and not coming back. (People’s Spring 5/11) The exodus is an indication of the dire conditions in Burma.

From being a fast-growing, vibrant city full of new economic activity during the 2015-20 period, Yangon now struggles to survive growing electricity blackouts, fuel and water shortages, and violent crime. Discomfort in high-rise apartments without water and electricity is acute, with no way to alleviate the heat and maintain cleanliness. Without light and with the danger of crime, activity largely shuts down at sunset. The coup-related economic crisis has resulted in failed businesses, loss of employment, rising prices, and product shortages. People are no longer drawn to the city by opportunity, but rather flock there as destitute refugees due to junta violence in the regions. (Myanmar Now 5/11)

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How it’s going----------------------

It’s not going well. China increasingly colonizes Burma, which has been all but abandoned by democratic countries and taken advantage of by opportunistic neighbors India and Thailand. On the battlefield this has translated into the loss of Chin State’s second city Falam to the junta last week, with an ongoing drive to take more towns and the Indian border. This week saw the Kachin and their allies lose two towns in northern Sagaing Region, after PDFs lost two others in recent months, with a thousand junta troops marching toward Kachin’s 2nd city Banmaw. The Karenni, who came close to capturing their capital city Loikaw during 2024, have been driven out of most towns since then, with the junta threatening to take even the secure ones, Mese, Shadow, and Mawchi. Only the Karen and the Arakan seem to be doing well against the junta in early-mid 2026.

Since China turned its powerful proxy Kokang militia (MNDAA) in favor of the junta last year, the junta has been able to redirect its forces from northern Shan State, where it had suffered the worst losses, to those other theaters where it now has the momentum.

The armed resistance began as a collection of semi-dormant ethnic armies and several thousand local Bamar cells using improvised roadside bombs and hunting muskets. Through persistent guerrilla warfare, the resistance acquired real weapons and protective gear, mastered drone bombing, and began coordinating its disparate forces. By late 2024 it had so depleted and demoralized the junta that the latter seemed doomed as a real power. The resistance controlled nearly 100 towns and almost ⅔ of Burma territory.

Despite the territorial losses to date, which are still limited, resistance forces are far ahead of where they were two years into the war. If those losses continue, however, the resistance may have to revert to guerrilla warfare, giving up control of land and towns and instead picking off junta convoys and battalions through ambushes and drone attacks. The process of wearing down the junta may have to repeat, after the regime inflated its numbers with forced recruits. That may mean that the resistance may not return to the offensive for two more years, and may have to jettison the regions that are too directly under Chinese control, mainly in northern Shan State and the junta strongholds in the big cities.

The recent fake civilian government dress-up by the junta doesn’t change Burma’s status as a failed state. Evidence of that is the daily and nightly bombing of civilians all over the country. A semi-permanent civil war would be hard on everyone, both in liberated and junta/China-controlled areas. The victory that seemed plausible 18 months ago has now receded into a more distant future.

But if a return to enduring guerrilla warfare is what Chinese intervention brings about, then that’s what it will have to be. At some point the opposition may stop tip-toeing around China’s pipelines and other investments and attack them as enemy assets and legitimate targets. China only intervenes because it thinks it can do so without great cost to itself, but if its meddling comes with too great a price tag, Beijing will rethink its strategy.

It would certainly be helpful if Western countries would recognize the opportunity that Burma presents as a would-be friendly country and bulwark against regional Chinese expansionism. Sanctions and strongly-worded statements are worthless without concrete assistance to help win the war and end the carnage. Even something as limited as surface-to-air missiles to stop the airstrikes would be significant. In terms of geopolitical strategy, Burma is low-hanging fruit that the West seems willing to let go to waste.

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Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army is attacking junta positions in Lawng Hkang, an eastern suburb of Hpakant town, capital of the jade mining region, beginning May 4. Over 20 junta troops have been killed. Some weapons have been captured, and some Kachin soldiers have also died. The Kachin say the junta troops appear to be new trainees. (People’s Spring 5/4, 5/5)

The junta has sent 1,000 of its new recruits to Shweku in southwestern Kachin State in preparation for reinforcing its beleaguered battalions in Banmaw, Kachin’s 2nd city. The arrival of the troops has led to clashes with the Kachin army. The Kachin have been encircling and trying to reduce and close out those Banmaw battalions since December 2024. The junta is also massing troops in Momeik to try to retake Mobein town in the northwest corner of Shan State, which is under Kachin control. (People’s Spring 5/3)

The junta column of 500 troops that kicked the Kachin army and allied PDFs out of Indaw town in northern Sagaing Region on April did the same in Mawlu town on May 5, and then continued across the Kachin State boundary, headed for Mohnyin, where it aims to link up with other junta troops. They are trying to take control of that stretch of the highway linking Mandalay to the Kachin State capital Myitkyina, which has been under Kachin army control since August 2024. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/7)

Arakan----------------------

The approach of the Arakan army to the junta’s No. 6 and 16 weapons factories in Padaung Township of far western Bago Region has prompted the junta to send reinforcements and carry out heavy bombing. The AA is attacking a peripheral hilltop camp 7 km from the No. 16 factory, which produces gunpowder. Fighting is ongoing. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/4)

North of that, in Ngapé Township of Magway Region, the AA has repulsed two junta columns trying to reinforce the besieged mountaintop base at Natyaykan. Columns approaching from Gotji and Pazee have had to flee with heavy casualties. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 5/4)

Kawthoolei----------------------

More results were announced from the battle for Lay Kay camp in Doo Tha Htoo District, which Karen and NUG Special Operations forces seized from the junta on April 14. The resistance forces tracked down the junta troops who fled from the camp, killing 7 and capturing 18, who are being held in a POW camp. The resistance seized 81mm mortar shells, 20 rifles, and ammunition. One of the prisoners is the camp commander. The junta sent 200 reinforcements, but the Karen intercepted them, killing 25, wounding at least 30, and capturing 6, along with 22 weapons. In addition, it was announced that a junta paramotor was shot down on April 26 while bombing around Win Ta Pan camp, which is also under attack by Karen and NUG forces. (People’s Spring 5/5)

It is rare for the junta to use paragliders and gyrocopters in ethnic-controlled areas, since the ethnic armies can shoot down these small aircraft. They are usually limited to bombing civilians in PDF-controlled areas of central Burma.

A PDF in the Myeik area reports that over 20 junta troops have defected recently. Clashes with junta forces continue sporadically. Meanwhile, the junta is massing troops to try to recapture the Mawtaung border crossing post to Thailand. (People’s Spring 5/8)

On May 7 Kawthoolei National Police burned nearly 10 million yaba (methamphetamine) pills intercepted in transit from Chinese-dominated Kokang and Wa areas of Shan State toward Thailand. Some Thai security and political representatives attended at the KNU’s invitation. The event took place on the Salween River bank in Mutraw District. Thai and Kawthoolei law enforcement have been collaborating on drug shipment interdiction, despite Thai military-backed politicians publicly embracing the Naypyitaw coup regime. (Mutraw News 5/7)

Chin----------------------

The junta troops who seized control of Falam town last week turned south to try to take control of the road leading to the state capital, Hakha. Aircraft have been bombing intensively, forcing villagers to flee into the mountains.

Meanwhile, Chin forces are preparing for an attempt to liberate Tedim town in the north, which still has junta forces stationed there. As a result, the junta redirected about 300 troops up the road toward Tedim, where they are being fought by the Chin forces. Chin sources say junta casualties have been heavy, while the Chin have suffered 7 soldiers and policewomen killed with 3 civilians in a bombing that was likely aided by a tip-off from a pro-junta militia. A video shows an entire church exploding when hit by jet bombs. (People’s Spring 5/5, Maung News 5/7)

In an example of a return to guerrilla tactics, Chin defense forces intercepted a junta convoy heading from Kalay in Sagaing Region toward Falam town on May 6, killing 7 troops including an officer. The convoy was bringing junta administrators to the newly-subdued town. (People’s Spring 5/7)

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs in Seikphyu Township of Magway Region ambushed a junta convoy 4 times on May 4-5 as it traveled from junta weapons factory No. 22 to No. 24. At least 9 troops were killed, while 3 managed to escape their battalions to the resistance. A PDF from Myinchan Township in Mandalay Region suffered a tragedy when a truck carrying 15 of its soldiers was ambushed by junta troops in Taungtha Township on May 4. At least 11 of them were killed, with some still missing. The junta seized their weapons, namely rifles and grenades. (People’s Spring 5/5)

Consolidation of resistance forces continued this week with the uniting of 21 Magway Region PDFs under National Unity Government command. This is intended to streamline resistance military strategy. (Than Lwin Khet News 5/5)

China/Junta crimes----------------------

There have been many reports of Chinese state-owned and state-approved companies taking over territory and resources in northern Shan State districts where China exercises control through ethnic militias under its domination, especially the Kokang and Wa. Signs in local ethnic languages are being replaced by Mandarin. Now there are reports of China annexing strips of territory along the border by moving its border fences forward. In some cases this means China now has both banks of border rivers, leaving Burma citizens with no river access. (Shwe Phee Myay News 5/2) With no interest shown in Burma by democratic nations, there is nothing to stop China’s increasing acquisitiveness.

In return for backing the illegal Napyitaw regime, China expects its stalled investment projects to move forward. One of those is a mega-dam on the Irrawaddy River in Kachin State that would supply electricity to China, called the Myitsone Dam, shelved in 2017 due to overwhelming public opposition. China and the Burma junta are now planning to restart it. On May 5 a grouping of 49 Kachin civil society groups issued a joint statement voicing their objections to restarting the dam project, and burned Chinese flags in protest. (Khit Thit Media 5/6)

The junta has not slowed the destruction of civilian communities in PDF-dominated areas of Anyah (central Burma.) Columns of troops invade liberated tracts in Myinchan, Salin, Yesajo, Seikphyu, and other central townships and torch homes, sometimes looting them first. Twenty Myinchan villages have been turned to ashes. Thousands of homes are lost each month in this way. Besides property, residents lose their stored rice harvests, their farming equipment, and other means of livelihood, leaving them as refugees dependent on aid. The junta prevents aid from collusionist agencies like the United Nations from getting to liberated areas.

After jets blew up a church in Chin State’s Tedim Township and bombed villages in Mindat Township, Chin authorities warn that terrorist regime aircraft are circling after bombings and firing on rescue workers. (People’s Spring 5/9)

A jet dropped 4 bombs on a hospital in Kani Township of Sagaing Region on May 2, killing 2 patients as they underwent medical treatment and wounding others. (Myaelatt Athan 5/7)

On the Kason Buddhist full moon holiday of May 1, the junta released about 1,500 people from its many prisons, only 8 of whom were prisoners of conscience or political detainees. Prisoner amnesties on holidays are a tradition in Burma. Another tradition of the junta is re-kidnapping people it has just released in these mediagenic publicity amnesties. In this case two petroleum industry trade association leaders, who are junta cronies, were grabbed and put back in prison almost immediately. Their “crimes” include trading currencies and petroleum at market prices instead of the junta’s declared artificial rates. (The Irrawaddy B 5/2)

Political & economic----------------------

Despite the junta’s claim that it relocated Aung San Suu Kyi to “house arrest” and that she would meet with her lawyers, neither of those things has happened and there is no recent proof that she is still alive. The lawyers confirmed that they were not able to meet with her, and there is no available information about her location or condition. Various foreign embassies have requested proof of her status, but these are the same countries that consistently express verbal support for Burma’s people without contributing anything for their defense.

The Philippines, current rotating chair of the regional diplomatic bloc ASEAN, confirmed on May 6 that Burma dictator Min Aung Hlaing would not be invited to the ASEAN summit held in the Philippines May 7-9. Instead, ASEAN demanded to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi. This is despite heavy lobbying by the Thai military regime to legitimize the Naypyitaw cartel. The Thai regime wants ASEAN to recognize the junta’s sham election and superficial rebranding as a civilian government. (Khit Thit Media 5/6)

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How it’s going----------------------

Junta propaganda channels are churning out articles about supposed mass defections from resistance forces to the terror regime. The vast majority of these reports are wholly fabricated, as one would expect from a Chinese-style disinformation mill. Having pulled off a fake election and installed a fake civilian government, the regime is orchestrating a fake opposition surrender, hoping to persuade resistance fighters to give up on what it wants to portray as a lost cause. It is also hoping to fool international observers to the effect that it has won the civil war it started in 2021.

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In some cases the lies are built around actual events, such as bandit gangs fleeing to the junta to escape discipline by the National Unity Government forces. The propaganda stories obscure the actual nature and exaggerate the numbers.

But there are some cases of real surrenders by weary PDF soldiers and defeated Ta’ang army members. It’s hard to blame them. They have been fighting for 5 years and are worn out by the harsh living conditions, the constant danger and mental strain, the loss of comrades, the shortage of food and ammunition. In a ‘normal war’ soldiers are rotated home periodically and replaced by fresh ones, but that isn’t possible here. The only consolation is that life is even harsher in the junta trenches, where all that trauma is compounded by sadistic commanders, a ban on communication, and the hate of communities.

One hopes that those leaving the revolution are replaced by others who join as they come of age, or as they are threatened with forced recruitment by the junta, as has been seen. That threat has pushed young people toward sketchy undocumented migrant work and the danger of human trafficking (People’s Spring 4/30), so fighting to uproot the cause of the danger may not seem like such a bad alternative.

Since the attempted coup, a steady stream of junta soldiers has defected to the resistance, amounting to hundreds or perhaps thousands per year. Those reports still come in daily - five troops came to a Pakokku PDF with their weapons, ammunition, and a car on April 14, as 7 others were joining the Karen army in Kawthoolei. While this is helpful, the scale is not such that it could turn the tide by itself. By the same measure, the small number who switch in the other direction is not consequential. And it is still true that more fighters are defecting to the resistance than to the junta.

Again, the ethnic resistance in Burma has been battling military dictatorship for as long as 77 years, and is now joined by the ethnic majority Bamar. Neither China nor its Naypyitaw puppet regime can do anything to stop that, the current propaganda blitz notwithstanding.

Chin----------------------

Falam town and its airport fell to the junta’s onslaught on April 25, as predicted in last week’s report. Townspeople requested that Chin forces not fight within the city to avoid junta destruction, so the Chin withdrew and continued their fight in the surrounding area. After losing between 300 and 500 troops and officers during the 6-month offensive (depending on the reports,) heavy aerial bombardment allowed the junta to wear down the Chin defenders, who also lost over 50 soldiers. The Chin had liberated Falam on April 9, 2025. (Mandalay Free Press 4/25)

After capturing Falam, the junta turned toward clearing the road to the state capital Hakha, but suffered heavy casualties and had to retreat. (People’s Spring 5/1) Meanwhile the regime has been stepping up airstrikes on civilian targets across Chin State, killing 9 people who were repairing a bridge in Kyindwe town on April 29, and 5 children and an adult in a Falam Township village on May 1 (see below). (Myanmar Now 4/29)

Chin defense forces are also mobilizing to defend Mindat town in southern Chin State against an anticipated invasion from Magway Region. (People’s Spring 4/29)

A video of Chin and international forces attacking junta outposts in Chin State is at https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1ERhrDAjoS/

Kawthoolei----------------------

After a 4-day battle and drone-bombing, the Karen army captured another junta camp on April 24, in Ta Naw Th’Ree Township of Mergui-Tavoy District (Bokepyin). Casualties were few because the junta troops, who had been there 2 years, ran away. (People’s Spring 4/25)

Two days later on April 26 the Karen captured another junta camp near the Mutraw-Kler Lwi Htoo district boundary after a short attack. Five junta troops are reported killed and approximately 20 captured including a senior officer. (Local sources 4/26) The Kawthoolei government (KNU) says its army has captured 58 out of the 68 junta camps and bases that existed in Mutraw District at the time of the 2021 attempted coup.

Fighting is ongoing at the Win Ta Pan junta camp near the Doo Tha Htoo-Mutraw district boundary, after nearby Lay Kay fell on April 7. The camp is surrounded and running short on supplies, while the Karen have kept reinforcements from approaching. The Karen army says it has caused “hundreds” of casualties among junta troops sent to try to reinforce Win Ta Pan, including killed, wounded, and captured, along with some weapons. No precise figures are given, but the Karen say 500 reinforcements arrived at Kamamaung on April 27, destined either for Win Ta Pan or Wa Du in Mutraw District, where the Karen army has blocked a junta advance since last year. (Salween Press 4/28)

Meanwhile, the battle for Waw Lay continues in Ramati Township of Dooplaya District. The Karen continue to hammer the junta’s last camp on the Thai border south of Myawaddy city, and on April 25 they charged the hill, causing approximately 20 junta troops to flee, some of whom were then caught by the Karen. All the surrounding defense outposts have already been captured, and other Karen forces are preventing junta reinforcements from traveling down the border road from Myawaddy. The junta troops remaining in the camp continue to shell the civilian town of Waw Lay, sending refugees across the border into Thailand. Thai troops are stationed on the border, ostensibly to prevent fleeing junta forces from breaching Thai territory, though in the past, the Thai regime has helped defeated junta troops to rejoin their divisions through the Myawaddy border crossing. (Karen Information Center 4/26)

The latest report says China is pressuring Thailand to allow the junta to send reinforcements to Waw Lay through Thai territory from Myawaddy. (People’s Spring 4/27) China already dominates northern Shan, but this could be a sign of it reaching out to control areas further afield on behalf of the junta.

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army and an allied ethnic Shanni militia captured 2 camps in Monyin Township on April 23. They belonged to the pro-junta Shanni group SNA. (People’s Spring 4/27) The Kachin also bombed junta positions in Hpakant Township using drones, causing at least 50 casualties, according to local witnesses, which the Kachin say were raw recruits and pro-junta ethnic Shanni militia (SNA). (People’s Spring 4/30)

The Kachin army has been involved in the liberation of several northern Sagaing towns including Indaw. Junta advancing from Kathah retook Indaw town on April 30. The Kachin inflicted casualties on that column and captured an officer alive. Along the way, junta troops kidnapped civilians and locked them in monasteries, using torture to interrogate them, and shot those they suspected of helping the liberation forces when they were there. (Khit Thit Media 4/29)

Karenni----------------------

Shooting erupted on April 24 between the newly-formed Alpha 1 Mobye Battalion and a local Mobye PDF that had gone to the dark side. The clash occurred when the Karenni defense forces moved to arrest the rogue PDF commander on charges of embezzling public resources, murdering captives, and threatening civilians. Nine PDF members including its leader were killed. The Mobye PDF was then disbanded by the interim Karenni government (IEC) and its publicly-provided weapons were repossessed. (Kantarawaddy Times 4/28, People’s Spring 4/30)

Arakan----------------------

The Arakan Army continues to hammer junta forces around the Natyaykan mountaintop base in Ngapé Township of western Magway Region. The junta has sent hundreds of reinforcements lately along 2 routes to try to rescue the camp, but the AA has attacked those columns and caused heavy casualties, and is now advancing toward one of the junta’s support camps at Gotji. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 4/30)

Mon----------------------

The National Unity Government announced that its forces launched a successful attack on a junta weapons depot in Ye Township of Mon State on April 19, setting off explosions that destroyed about 200 weapons and damaged others to the point that they also had to be destroyed for safety. Four troops were killed and 12 wounded, half of them seriously. (Karenni People’s Voice 4/29)

A Mon State PDF coalition says it ambushed a column of 400 junta troops on a rural road in Ye Township on April 28 and killed 20 of them. The junta then called in reinforcements and fired mortars into civilian communities. (Than Lwin Khet News 5/1) Mon State is under tight junta control, but there are sporadic PDF and Karen army attacks.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs captured a strategic base on a main road in Kalewa Township of Sagaing Region on April 26. Most of the 60 troops there fled, and the PDFs seized ammunition and other supplies. Intensive aerial bombardment failed to stop the PDF seizure. A video shows the PDF soldiers in possession of the base and systematically destroying it. (People’s Spring 4/27) PDFs also stormed a junta camp in Myaing Township in Magway Region on April 29, capturing some weapons. (Mandalay Free Press 4/30)

PDFs have been inflicting casualties on hundreds of junta troops that are attacking and destroying villages in Myinchan and Nwatoji Townships of Mandalay Region. During the last week of April they say they have killed between 25 and 30 troops and wounded others using drones and ambushes, and have captured junta weapons and uniforms and destroyed 2 supply trucks. The junta destroyed nearly 2,000 homes there during April. (People’s Spring 4/29) The PDF defenses don’t stop the raids, but they attach a cost to them and force the junta to mass troops together rather than dispersing them to more villages.

On the other hand, 200 junta troops moved into an undefended road junction in Saw Township of Magway Region on April 25, cutting off a trade route between Magway, Chin, and Arakan. (Mizzima E 4/29) This is significant because Arakan is already starved of trade in food, medicines, and other goods by a blockade at other land borders.

After the defection of disgraced PDF commander Bol Naga to the junta in February, the junta sent about 700 troops into Kalay and Yinmapin Townships to burn and destroy villages. This has led to 3 months of fighting, as local PDFs put up a strong defense. They say they have killed about 100 junta troops during that time, while also suffering some casualties. Photos show captured junta weapons and uniforms, evidence that the PDFs have won some battles. (People’s Spring 4/27)

The junta infiltration into the Mandalay PDF turns out to be worse than the 4 individuals announced last week. The National Unity Government said on April 27 that a total of 35 people have been blacklisted for desertion, and about half of them are accused of colluding with the enemy by embezzling military equipment and funds, passing weapons to the junta, providing target locations for airstrikes, and attempting to recruit defectors to the junta using bribes. The others simply wanted to leave. The NUG arrested a founder of the Mandalay PDF, Ko Kyun, on embezzlement and collaboration charges.

The MPDF story is one of dramatic rise and fall. Initially founded in Ta’ang territory by urban guerrillas driven out of Mandalay city, it was trained and directed by the Ta’ang army (TNLA) during Operation 10/27 in late 2023 through 2024. At its height, the MPDF captured most of the three northern townships of Mandalay Region, even threatening the city suburbs and Pyin Oo Lwin where the junta military academies are located. During 2025, after China began meddling, the MPDF suffered the same series of defeats as its Ta’ang mentors. It pledged to defend Mogok and Momeik towns after China forced the Ta’ang to withdraw, but didn’t follow through, and instead withdrew, to widespread criticism. Now it turns out the MPDF leadership was rotten at the top. (The Irrawaddy B 4/27)

This is part of an ongoing housecleaning and professionalization process within the resistance movement.

Terrorism----------------------

Jets killed 5 children and an adult civilian and injured 10 more in a village of Falam Township in Chin State on May 1. (Matupi Times 5/1)

The Burma military cartel has secured the lobbying services of Roger Stone, a convicted criminal and political ally of USA president Donald Trump, to burnish its image in Washington DC. Stone is working for the disreputable pro-terrorist lobbying firm DCI Group. As a regime lobbyist, he will encourage the American government to legitimize the illegal Burma junta. (Bloomberg News 4/30)

More than 30 civilians have now been killed by airstrikes in southern Naypyitaw Region and northern Taw Oo District of Kawthoolei since the Karen army sacked a junta camp in that area on April 23. Ten junta troops died including a commander, and his superiors have been grilled by the junta about how the attack was allowed to happen only 30 km from the junta’s main airport and airforce base. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 4/28)

The junta’s forced military recruitment system has created a cash trade in human beings. Junta officials in each ward are charged with recruiting, kidnapping, or otherwise getting quotas of young men each month. The men are grabbed off of their motorcycles or from their homes or workplaces. Households who don’t yield a young man have to pay bribes of between 30,000 and 500,000 kyats per month (US$7-120). Ward administrators who miss their quotas use this cash to buy recruits captured elsewhere. The agents of these sales are the junta’s proxy militia, the Pyu Saw Htee. (People’s Spring 4/29) Captive men are sold from one location to another to fulfill recruitment quotas - a slave trade.

Junta/China propaganda----------------------

The latest fake news story about purported resistance desertions to the junta was a story on April 27 saying 61 members of the ethnic Pa-O National Liberation Organization joined the junta. In fact it was 30 people, not 61, and these are from a pre-existing militia led by a messianic cult figure who linked loosely with the PNLO after the coup, and now went to the junta. The leader, Khun Tan, has been accused of sexual assault against multiple young girls and women, and apparently changed sides in order to avoid punishment. (Karenni People’s Voice 4/27) The PNLO liberated and held Sisaing town in southern Shan State for several months during late 2023-early 2024, but were driven out after the junta flattened the town with continuous aerial bombing.

The junta also threw a made-for-media “victory reception” for troops supposedly returning from the battle of Kyaukphyu in Arakan, complete with floral wreaths. The only problem is that the junta has been losing that battle and hundreds of troops have been killed and wounded and evacuated from there. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 4/28)

In response to demands for proof that deposed head of state Aung San Suu Kyi is alive, the illegal regime claimed to have moved the 80-year-old from prison to a smaller detention facility in Naypyitaw they are calling a “house,” without specifying where or what it is, and without showing any recent photos or videos of her. The only photo shared dates from 2022. (Mizzima 4/30)

Political & economic----------------------

The European Union extended its sanctions against Burma’s military regime for another year, through April 2027. They cover military generals and junta members, sham government ministers, members of the fake election commission, top collaborationist judicial officials, politicians from the junta proxy USDP party, and border scam center operators including leaders of the pro-junta Karen BGF and DKBA splinter militias. The EU also announced €15 million to help Burma refugees in Thailand integrate into the Thai economy. (Salween Press 4/28) Neither the EU nor the USA is offering anything to help Burma’s pro-democracy movement resist China/junta efforts to perpetuate the dictatorship and the civil war.

On April 26 the junta announced new higher taxes on imported consumer goods. (People’s Spring 4/26) This will exacerbate already rampant inflation and scarcity of products, since the regime has also banned imports of Thai products, which accounted for a large proportion of those used by consumers in Burma. Compounding this, the energy shortage caused jointly by the Iran war and junta mismanagement has left supermarkets unable to keep their lights on, and they consequently stopped stocking perishable cold chain products that require refrigeration. (Khit Thit Media 4/27)

A junta crony and arms supplier, Kyaw Min Oo, has bought stakes in companies listed on the Bangkok stock exchange for the purposes of laundering money from his illegal weapons business, according to the human rights watchdog group Justice for Myanmar. JFM urged Thai authorities to investigate this criminal incursion into Thai corporate business. (People’s Spring 5/1)

One of Burma’s most popular on-line shopping apps, called Shop.com, permanently closed its sales at the end of April. It didn’t give a reason, but the most obvious candidate is the impossibility of turning a profit under the current conditions of an artificial exchange rate, import restrictions, and now the consequences of the Iran war. (Ayeyarwaddy Times 4/28)

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How it’s going----------------------

As the illegal regime in Burma continued torching and bombing villages, hospitals, and temples this week and even bombed Thai territory by mistake, the Thai foreign minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow honored that regime with an official visit on April 22. On the eve of that meeting of two military regimes, a coalition of ethnic Karen organizations and an international human rights group sent a public letter to Phuangketkeow in which they point out:

In short, the Thai government goes against its own interests by backing the coup regime against the people of the country. The same can be said for India and China.

Apparently blind to the irony, on the same day his foreign minister was visiting the terror regime, Thai prime minister Anutin Chanwirak reacted to the junta’s inadvertent bombing of Thai soil by warning “all sides” to keep their fighting on the Burma side. As the Karen letter points out, it’s not “all sides” that keep violating Thai territory with stray bombs, mortars, gunfire, and waves of refugees, it’s the Thai regime’s friends in Naypyitaw.

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Realistically, no one expects the Thai foreign minister to heed this letter, if he ever sees it. Like the other neighboring countries, the Thai military regime has already picked its side. Even the United Nations legitimizes the military cartel with memoranda of understanding and the delivery of humanitarian supplies. International diplomacy has the deep flaw of defaulting toward whatever armed gang happens to seize the apparatus of state and treat it as a “government,” rather than considering a country’s people and their interim administration. Short-term expediency takes precedence over eventual stability and legitimacy. By walking the red carpets of Naypyitaw, the envoys from Thailand, China, India, and the UN enable horrendous atrocities out in the countryside.

That doesn’t mean the Karen organizations and human rights groups shouldn’t still point out the obvious self-defeating contradictions of pro-dictatorship policies by other governments. It may take more bombs falling in Thai territory, more refugees, more scam centers, and longer collapse of cross-border trade, for some future Thai administration to recognize the smarter course recommended in this public letter.

In case that doesn’t happen, however, the fight against illegal military rule goes on without support from Bangkok, Beijing, or New Delhi, because it has to.

Chin----------------------

The junta accelerated its drive to retake Falam town this past week, sending troop columns from 3 directions and using heavy aerial bombardment against the Chin defenders. The junta has lost hundreds of troops in this drive. On April 20 they crossed a key bridge at Var, and are now on the edge of the city. The airport is in jeopardy, which is significant because the junta could use it as a resupply link and a base for further operations. (People’s Spring 4/23)

Chin defense forces still hold most of the state, but the junta has retaken the key road junction of Thaingin on the way to both Falam and Tedim, and now Falam town. In these areas the Chin will have to return to guerrilla war tactics until the junta can be sufficiently weakened again.

Arakan----------------------

While the junta has been on the defensive in 2 of its 3 remaining tiny enclaves on the Arakan coast, those of Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, it is attempting a counter-offensive just south of Kyaukphyu in Taungkot Township. The junta brought 10 warships close to shore and fired heavily starting April 21, and looked like it was going to attempt an amphibious landing. The Arakan Army fired howitzers and rockets, and may have damaged some ships, because they pulled back, and no landing has happened thus far. (Mizzima 4/23)

Kachin----------------------

The Kachin army announced that it captured 2 junta camps in Tanai Township on April 18, killing 15 junta troops in the process and capturing weapons. (People’s Spring 4/18) Then on April 23 the Kachin captured another camp, this one in Shweku Township in the southwest. (People’s Spring 4/24)

Meanwhile, the battle continues in and around Hpakant town in the jade mining district. It began on April 2 when the Kachin army attacked junta forces. Kachin drone-bombing killed at least 15 junta troops at a camp at the city’s golf course. The junta has responded by shelling surrounding civilian communities and kidnapping people as human shields. Some of those kidnapped were later beaten and killed. On April 21 junta troops abducted the entire staff of a hospital and are still holding them, depriving the community of medical services. (People’s Spring 4/23)

Kawthoolei----------------------

News came that yet another junta camp fell to Karen forces, making 6 since March. This one was the 309th Battalion camp in Ler Mu Lah Township of Mergui-Tavoy District (Palaw), and it occurred on April 7, though news only emerged on April 19. The junta troops fled, and the Karen destroyed the camp after removing the weapons and ammunition. Three days later the junta counter-attacked, leading to a 30-minute battle in which the Karen say 10 junta troops died and approximately 15 were wounded. (People’s Spring 4/19)

Karen-led forces are still chasing the junta troops who fled from the Lay Kay camp in Doo Tha Htoo District when it fell. On April 13 they killed 7 and captured 2 alive along with all 9 of their weapons. The next day they captured 7 more of the fleeing troops, only 2 of whom were armed and one was wounded. The battle is still on for the second camp at Wintapan. (Khit Thit Media 4/19)

On April 22 the Karen army overran a small junta outpost, killed 10 troops including a Major, and captured some guns and ammunition. The rest of the troops fled. The significance is the location of the camp in northernmost Taw Oo District, which Burmese maps place in a “Lewe Township” of Napyitaw Region, only 30 km southeast of the Naypyitaw airport and air base. (Khit Thit Media 4/23)

Down in Dooplaya District, at the siege of the junta base at Waw Lay, the last camp south of Myawaddy city on the Thai border, Karen forces are pressing hard and are optimistic that the base will fall. It is being led by the storied Cobra Column. (People’s Spring 4/25)

Junta planes bombed a hospital at U Mee Hta in Mutraw District for the 2nd time on April 20, and one of the bombs hit the Thai side of the Xrolokloh River (Salween), prompting Thai authorities to evacuate the area. The hospital was vacant and there were no casualties, but the hospital was destroyed. Bombing hospitals is an international war crime. (Salween Press 4/20) The Burma junta routinely bombs Kawthoolei positions right on the border, meaning that its planes have to violate Thai air space to do so, without so much as a peep from the Thais.

On April 23 the American national police (FBI) announced a reward of up to US$10 million for information that leads to the seizure or recovery of assets stolen by the Tai Chang Chinese mafia. Tai Chang operates in enclaves along the Kawthoolei-Thailand border that are controlled by the pro-junta DKBA splinter militia, specifically at a place called Kyaukhat south of Myawaddy. The FBI says Tai Chang stole $7.2 billion from Americans during 2025. (The Irrawaddy E 4/24) Since the Kawthoolei government (KNU) has already shut down a DKBA scam center at Minletpan and provided evidence of crimes committed there to the FBI, it isn’t clear whether the KNU is eligible for this reward. The FBI did announce arrest warrants for 2 Chinese scam leaders based on that evidence seized at Minletpan.

Northern Shan----------------------

Lashio, the main city of northern Shan State, is apparently still in play, even though the Kokang army (MNDAA) handed it back to the junta in response to Chinese pressure one year ago in April 2025. A junta battalion there was drone-bombed on April 22. Sources don’t say by whom. There were explosions there twice during February also. (People’s Spring 4/22)

The Kokang army, which is ethnically Chinese and is now controlled by Beijing, has begun erasing Ta’ang language signs and Ta’ang flags from areas now under its military occupation, including places recently taken from the defeated Ta’ang army (TNLA). This affects offices and even road markers. The Ta’ang writing has been replaced by Mandarin characters. (The Irrawaddy B 4/22) A more visible symbol of the sinification of Burma would be difficult to imagine.

People’s Defense Forces (PDFs)----------------------

PDFs fired 18 rockets of local manufacture into the junta’s No. 24 weapons factory in Pauk Township of Magway Region on April 20, hitting the main building and causing an explosion and fire. Damage details haven’t been reported. The No. 24 factory produces iron and aluminum raw materials for the other factories. (Khit Thit Media 4/24)

A PDF coalition was able to get within range of the junta’s No. 21 weapons factory in Seikphyu Township of Magway Region on April 19 and fire 40 rockets and 107mm shock missiles at it. Damage hasn’t been ascertained. The factory is the one that produces large 250 and 500 pound bombs and cluster bombs dropped by jets all over the country. (Khit Thit Media 4/20)

The next day, April 20, PDFs fired rockets into the No. 14 weapons factory in Ngapé Township of Magway Region, killing 3 troops including an officer and wounding 13 others. Structural damage resulted, but impact on weapons production isn’t known. (Voice of Sporing 4/23)

PDFs in Ayadaw Township east of the Sagaing capital Monywa have been surrounding camps of the pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee terrorist militia during mid-April, and the junta has been hitting the area with every airborne weapon it has. The Ayadaw People’s Defense Organization says the junta has launched over 110 attacks from April 12 to 17, through the Buddhist New Year holiday, with suicide drones, paramotors, gyrocopters, Russuan jets and Mi-35 helicopters, Chinese propeller planes, and 15 attacks with howitzers. Casualties haven’t been tallied. (People’s Spring 4/18)

An assembly of 21 PDFs in Magway Region issued a declaration on April 22 that they will fight under the command of the Magway Federal Unitary Government. This is part of a general consolidation of the resistance military chain of command under the National Unity Government. The Kawthoolei government (KNU) also pledged its commitment in the wake of the dictator’s call for surrender through “talks.” (People’s Spring 4/22)

Fifteen rogue members of a PDF in Minkun Township in Sagaing Region defected to the junta in exchange for cash payments on April 15, after committing some crimes locally and then secretly contacting the junta. They took 5 weapons with them. The story was initially reported on junta propaganda channels but confirmed by Minkun PDF officials. (Maung News 4/19) In mid-February another group of PDF soldiers-turned-bandits also defected to the junta in Palay Township when National Unity Government forces moved to reign them in. Criminals who insinuate themselves into resistance forces are being removed or driven out.

In a related story, four junta infiltrators were identified in a PDF in Mandalay Region’s Mogok Township. They were attempting to bribe PDF soldiers to defect to the junta, at a time when the dictator is trying at a national level to get PDFs to surrender and defect. Junta propaganda channels have shown welcoming ceremonies for supposed PDF defectors, but most of them turn out to be recent forced junta recruits wearing PDF uniforms, and a spokesman for a Yesajo PDF in Magway Region said some of those portrayed in the ceremonies who were actual defectors, were arrested and imprisoned afterward. (People’s Spring 4/21)

Terrorism----------------------

Not two weeks after inaugurating a sham “civilian” administration, Burma’s military junta announced “martial law” in 60 townships that it doesn’t control across the country. The targeted townships are 14 in Arakan, where the junta barely has any presence, 8 in Sagaing, 7 in Chin, 5 each in Kachin and Magway, 3 in Kawthoolei, and 2 in Mandalay. (Than Lwin Times 4/24) The common denominator is that pro-democracy forces control those townships. The junta now intends to target them for re-capture, which will mean intensified bombing and ground attacks and - if previous efforts are any indication - dramatic troop losses on the junta side. The junta never slowed the pace of bombing and torching civilian communities through its fake elections and mock-civilian exercises, so this new wave of military targeting is true to the regime’s nature to date.

Chinese-supplied gyrocopters dropped 2 bombs on a village in Sagaing’s Monywa Township on April 17, initially killing 3 people and badly wounding 20 others. By April 21 the death toll had risen to 21. One target was a forest where refugees were sheltering, the other was a motorcycle repair shop. (DVB B 4/18)

Volunteers in women’s hygiene organizations say the junta has banned transport of menstrual pads in central Burma, claiming that the PDFs use them as bandages. The workers say that’s not even plausible, and that the generals are acting on rumors based on ignorance. The ban is resulting in menstrual pads becoming unavailable or unaffordable for civilian women, forcing them to use unsanitary or ineffective materials like rags or paper, raising the risk of toxicity. Menstrual cups and tampons are less known and less available in Burma. The shortage is most acute among Burma’s 4.2 million internal refugees, most of whom live outside junta-controlled areas. (The Guardian UK 4/26 https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/apr/20/myanmar-military-regime-widens-sanitary-towel-ban-claiming-rebels-use-them-for-first-aid)

Political & economic----------------------

Military dictator Min Aung Hlaing, now dressing up as “president,” advised PDFs to surrender, and invited ethnic armies to “talks,” also a form of surrender. Encouraged by China’s coercion of the Kokang and Ta’ang ethnic armies who submitted to the junta recently, he made these remarks in an April 20 rant on regime propaganda TV, giving resistance forces a deadline of July 31 to surrender, or else the terrorist regime will continue doing what it’s currently doing. The legitimate National Unity Government and its resistance partners immediately rejected the idea. (Myanmar Now 4/21)

Previous iterations of the Burma military junta have used discussions and ceasefires with subsets of the ethnic resistance as a divide-and-conquer strategy. Other than the ones controlled by China, today’s ethnic armies are now wise to that ruse and insist on being dealt with all together, with the inclusion of the ethnic Bamar PDF forces and the National Unity Government, in order to avoid piecemeal dismemberment of their movement.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wan Yi made a stop in Naypyitaw on April 25. It was widely interpreted as a supervisory visit. After saving the failing military regime starting in late 2024, Beijing now expects a great deal from its Burma client, including a hydro-electric dam, mines, oil drilling, and a railroad to the Indian Ocean, among other projects. Wan Yi also touched down in another Beijing colony Cambodia, and Thailand. (The Irrawaddy B 4/21)

Russia is a favorite vendor to the illegal regime, of military aircraft and other systems and also civilian hardware. The Burma regime’s “energy minister” visited Russia on April 17 and met with Russian companies wanting to sell technologies for LNG importation and storage, a petroleum refinery, and coal power plants at the designated (but vacant) industrial zone north of Tavoy city in Kawthoolei’s Mergui-Tavoy District. (Khit Thit Media 4/18) While such installations would go a long way toward solving the Burma regime’s chronic energy shortage, these expressions of interest are largely aspirational, as the regime hardly has the means to pay for them, and Karen PDFs are strong in the area around the industrial zone. Russia has previously promised to sell a nuclear power plant to the regime, but no such ground-breaking has taken place.

Burma nationals protesting for the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and all others from political imprisonment have been joined by the embassies of the UK, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the European Union. The protests contain a demand for “proof of life,” suggesting that the junta may be concealing 80-year-old DASSK’s death in prison after Burma President U Win Myint was released on April 17. (People’s Spring 4/22)

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