## TLDR Summary

Fear on the index, a coiled spring on the tape. Bitcoin is holding just above $64,000 (~$64,478, +0.8%) after clawing back from the early-July low near $57.7K, but it’s gone quiet — a sub-$800 daily range on thin volume, sitting right on its pivot. The whole market is holding its breath into the July 29 Fed decision, the first under new chair Kevin Warsh, with a hold roughly 80% priced — so the tone of the statement matters more than the number. The near-term weight is real: spot-ETF outflows of about $465M over two days (BlackRock’s IBIT leading) snapped a seven-session inflow streak, and the US 10-year yield pushed to 4.71%, its highest since January 2025, pulling money into bonds. But under the surface the bid is rebuilding — Grayscale says the bear market is over, CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium has reclaimed its 14-day average, whales are buying, and big traders bought $2.5B of call spreads targeting $72K by month-end. No chart or scenarios today — this one is built straight from the ChartHackers News Terminal; the full BTC report returns with the daily chart. Constructive under the surface but unconfirmed: it firms on a dovish hold and a $65K reclaim, weakens if $63.5K cracks.

Bitmart - The next major exchange to close (after Bitmex) - Two Major Exchanges Gone in a Week

Three days after BitMEX, BitMart is winding down too. If you keep anything there, the real deadline is 26 August — here’s what actually matters.

• Right, this one’s important, so read it if you’ve got funds on BitMart.

• Three days after BitMEX announced it was closing after eleven years, BitMart has now said it’s winding down its own platform. The notice went out on 26 July. That’s two centralized exchanges calling it quits in the same week — and it’s not a coincidence, it’s what the mid-tier exchange model looks like when the numbers stop working.

• To be clear on what this isn’t: no hack, no insolvency, no enforcement action. BitMart is calling it a strategic decision after looking at its operating conditions and the market. In plain English, the business stopped paying for itself.

It’s a staged shutdown, not a switch flipped overnight:

• 26 July — new sign-ups stop, deposits suspended, futures go reduce-only, spot stops taking new orders, bots and API switched off.

• 26 August — complete your KYC and close positions by 01:00 UTC, and get withdrawal requests in by 05:00 UTC. This is the date that actually matters.

• 31 January 2027 — the platform officially closes.

Don’t let that January date fool you. 26 August is your real clock. And withdrawals aren’t automatic — BitMart says requests can go through manual review (KYC, address checks, source-of-funds, sanctions), and in a wind-down those queues get long. Submitting a request is not the same as coins hitting the chain. So the move is simple: get it out now, not in the last week of August.

What to do today:

• Log in and check every balance, including Earn, staking and lending.

• Finish your KYC so you don’t hit review friction later.

• Cancel open orders and close futures yourself rather than letting them be force-settled.

• Redeem any Earn or locked products — they have their own timelines.

• Withdraw early, and triple-check the network and destination address.

• Download your trade, deposit and withdrawal history for tax before access changes.

One more, and it matters: scammers love a wind-down. There are no paid “priority withdrawal” channels and no “account unfreezing fees.” Nobody from BitMart will ask for your password, 2FA code or seed phrase. Anyone on Telegram or WhatsApp offering to speed things up for a fee is trying to rob you.

Why’s this happening? Fees have been squeezed to near zero while compliance costs keep climbing — MiCA, licensing, Travel Rule, proof-of-reserves. Liquidity is concentrating into a handful of big venues, and onchain perps are eating the derivatives flow. A mid-tier exchange ends up paying big-exchange compliance costs on small-exchange revenue, in a half-year where Bitcoin fell about a third. Expect more of them to go. The cycle ends with fewer, bigger, more heavily licensed venues — which fixes some problems and stacks counterparty risk into fewer names.

The lesson underneath all of it is the old one: coins on an exchange are a claim against a company, not money you control. Both BitMart and BitMEX look like they’re closing cleanly with funds intact — that’s the good version of this. It still means thousands of people are moving their money on someone else’s schedule. Don’t be the one still stuck in the queue on 25 August.

Not financial advice — just get your funds safe.

🟢 CRYPTO

The constructive case: BTC has recovered from the early-July low near $57.7K to hold above $64K, Grayscale is calling the bear market over, and CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium is rebuilding — the on-chain tell behind the $58K to $64K move. Big traders bought $2.5B of call spreads targeting $72K by month-end, Morgan Stanley inflows of ~$400M could help reclaim $65K, and off bitcoin the ether ETFs keep bidding while BitMine adds ETH and Cardano pushes a 500M ADA treasury. Pockets of real demand keep showing up under a scared tape.

🟡 MACRO

The FOMC meets July 28–29 under chair Kevin Warsh with rates at 3.5–3.75%; a hold is roughly 80% priced, so the whole tape is holding its breath for the statement’s tone. The 10-year yield at 4.71% — its highest since January 2025 — is pulling money into bonds, oil is firm, and India just secured a lower US tariff tier in trade talks. A rate-driven, risk-cautious backdrop where the dovish-hold hope and the higher-for-longer worry are both live.

🔴 WATCH

F&G at 26 is fear for a reason. Spot-BTC ETFs bled about $465M over two days, BlackRock’s IBIT taking the bulk and snapping a seven-day inflow streak, volume is thin, and price is coiled right on the pivot. CLARITY Act odds slipped to 35% amid questions over Trump’s crypto windfall, and some models still flag $52K as possible. A close below $63.5K support opens $62K and the 50-day near $63.1K — no conviction until sentiment lifts.

📋 SUMMARY

Fear on the index (26) but a coiled spring under the tape — BTC just above $64K into the July 29 Fed decision, the first under Warsh, on thin volume and a sub-$800 range. The near-term weight is ~$465M of ETF outflows snapping a seven-day inflow streak and a 4.71% 10-year pulling risk-off; the under-tape bid is Grayscale calling the bottom, whales buying, the Coinbase Premium reclaiming, and $2.5B of call spreads betting on $72K. Constructive but unconfirmed: it needs a dovish hold and a $65K reclaim to turn the coil into a move; lose $63.5K and $62K’s in play. We’ll track it in Discord through the day.

🔭 SPECIAL — A COILED SPRING WAITING ON THE FED

The whole story today is a market holding its breath. Bitcoin has recovered hard from the early-July washout near $57.7K to sit just above $64K, but the tape has gone flat — a sub-$800 daily range on thin volume, price pinned right on its pivot. That’s not weakness so much as a coiled spring: everyone is waiting on the July 29 Fed decision, the first under new chair Kevin Warsh, before they commit. A hold is roughly 80% priced, so it’s the tone of the statement — dovish or higher-for-longer — that decides which way the coil releases.

The near-term weight is real and worth respecting. Spot bitcoin ETFs bled about $225M on Thursday and roughly $240M more on Friday, BlackRock’s IBIT taking the bulk and snapping a seven-session inflow streak that had pulled in around $1B. Behind it, the US 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.71%, its highest since January 2025 — safer bonds pulling money away from risk — while oil stayed firm and CLARITY Act odds slipped to 35% amid questions over Trump’s reported crypto windfall. Rates and regulation, not headlines, are setting the mood.

But under the surface the bid is quietly rebuilding. Grayscale is telling clients the bear market is over, and Bitcoin Suisse says its bottom-signal framework is flashing after eight weeks of outflows. On-chain, CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium has reclaimed its 14-day average — the tell behind the $58K to $64K bounce — US whales are buying the dip, and big traders have put $2.5B into call spreads targeting $72K by July 31, two days after the Fed. The patient read: constructive under the surface but unconfirmed. It firms on a dovish hold and a reclaim of $65K; it weakens if the outflows persist and $63.5K cracks. Respect the coil, don’t chase it.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟡 BTC Coiled Above $64K as the Whole Market Waits on the Fed

Bitcoin is holding just above $64,000 (~$64,478, +0.8%) after clawing back from the early-July low near $57.7K, but it’s gone quiet — a sub-$800 range on thin volume, right on its pivot. Traders are holding their breath into the July 29 Fed decision, the first under Kevin Warsh; a hold is ~80% priced, so the statement’s tone matters more than the number. Grayscale says the bear market’s over — the tape says wait for the catalyst.

🔴 The ETF Bid Snaps — $465M Out in Two Days

Spot bitcoin ETFs bled $225M on Jul 24 and roughly $240M more on Jul 25, BlackRock’s IBIT taking the bulk, ending a seven-session inflow streak that had pulled in ~$1B (news.bitcoin.com). Ether ETFs went the other way, still adding cash — and that divergence is why BTC keeps stalling just under $64K even as the floor holds.

🔴 Yields Do the Damage — 10-Year Hits 4.71%

The US 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.71%, its highest since January 2025, and that’s the real weight on risk — safer bonds pulling money away from crypto (interactivecrypto). Add firm oil and you get the risk-off drift. Rates, not headlines, are setting the mood right now.

💚 Grayscale Says the Bear Market Is Over

Grayscale is telling clients the worst is behind bitcoin, and Bitcoin Suisse says its bottom-signal framework is flashing after eight straight weeks of ETF outflows (CryptoNews). On-chain, CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium has reclaimed its 14-day average — early US buy-side demand. An early bounce signal, not an all-clear.

💚 $2.5B in Call Spreads Bet on $72K by Month-End

Big traders bought $2.5B of BTC call spreads on Deribit targeting $72,000 by July 31 — two days after the Fed decision (CoinDesk). Someone’s betting the meeting is the catalyst that unlocks the next leg higher. It’s a confident bet, but it only pays if $63.5K holds first.

🔵 Whales Buy the Dip While Strategy Braces for the Worst

CryptoQuant ties the $58K to $64K bounce to US whale demand, and long-term holders keep buying dips even as some models still flag $52K as possible (AMBCrypto). Michael Saylor’s Strategy, meanwhile, says it’s ready for a worst-case crash. Confidence and caution sitting side by side.

🔵 Ether Holds the Divergence as ETH ETFs Keep Bidding

ETH is consolidating near $1,860 while its ETFs keep drawing inflows even on down days — the mirror image of bitcoin’s outflows (AMBCrypto). Analysts flag three signals pointing to a possible ETH bottom, and the “ETH steals the summer spotlight” case is doing the rounds. Rotation, quietly.

🔴 CLARITY Act Odds Slip to 35% as Trump Windfall Clouds the Bill

Prediction-market odds on the CLARITY Act passing fell to about 35% after questions over President Trump’s reported crypto windfall had lawmakers pumping the brakes (interactivecrypto). Democrats want tougher ethics rules folded in first. The market-structure bill — splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC — is the framework most desks are still waiting on, and the regulatory fog is part of why sentiment stays stuck at fear.

💚 Cash App Drops All Fees on Large and Recurring BTC Buys

Block’s Cash App scrapped fees on large bitcoin purchases and recurring buys, a real nudge for the retail on-ramp (Crypto Briefing). It’s a small move, but the direction is right — cheaper access is exactly what compounds adoption quietly while the price chops.

💚 Morgan Stanley’s ~$400M Could Help BTC Reclaim $65K

Fresh reporting pegs roughly $400M of Morgan Stanley inflows that could help bitcoin reclaim $65K if the demand sticks (AMBCrypto). Institutional interest hasn’t left — it’s just gotten choosier. A reclaim of $65K is the level bulls need to turn the coil into a move.

🔵 South Korea’s Biggest Bank Goes On-Chain With JPMorgan

KB Kookmin, South Korea’s largest bank, is launching a cross-border payment service on JPMorgan’s Kinexys blockchain (CoinTelegraph). Quiet institutional rails keep getting built — the kind of plumbing that matters far more for the long arc than any single day’s price.

🔵 BitMine Adds $73M in ETH, Now Holds 4.8% of Supply

BitMine added another $73M of ether, lifting its holdings to 4.8% of supply (The Defiant) — a treasury company leaning into ETH exactly as the ether ETFs keep bidding. The accumulation story quietly underpinning ETH’s relative strength versus BTC right now.

🔵 Cardano Pushes a 500M ADA Treasury Plan

Cardano is advancing a 500M ADA treasury push tied to its van Rossem upgrade, and ADA firmed on the news (AMBCrypto). Governance-funded runway is the pitch — a war chest to fund development if holders back it. Execution is the question, but the ambition is real.

🔵 Dogecoin Is the Only Top-20 Coin With Rising Volume

DOGE was the only top-20 crypto with rising trading volume on the day (U.Today), a small speculative flicker while the majors sit still. It’s not a trend, but in a quiet tape the one coin drawing fresh turnover is worth a note — retail’s still poking around the edges.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 26 — still fear — and the tape’s gone quiet, which is exactly the tension I want to flag today. Bitcoin’s holding just above $64K after a strong recovery off the early-July lows, but it’s coiled: a tiny daily range, thin volume, price pinned on its pivot while everyone waits on the Fed. That’s the whole story. Wednesday’s decision is the first under Kevin Warsh, a hold’s basically priced, so it’s the tone that matters — dovish and the coil probably releases up, higher-for-longer and it can snap back the other way. The near-term weight is honest: ~$465M left the ETFs in two days and the 10-year at 4.71% is pulling money into bonds, so I’m not pretending the pressure isn’t there. But I like the texture underneath — Grayscale calling the bear market over, the Coinbase Premium reclaiming, whales buying, and $2.5B of options betting on $72K into month-end. So it’s a respect-the-coil day, not a chase-it day: I want to see the Fed land and $65K reclaim before I lean in, and I’m watching $63.5K on the downside — lose that and $62K’s in play. Keep size sensible, and we’ll trade the line together in Discord. No chart today — this one’s straight off the terminal wire — but the full BTC report is back with the daily chart.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Fear on the index but a steady bid on the tape. Bitcoin is holding near $66,020, slipping just under $66K as traders wait on Tesla and Alphabet earnings to gauge the AI trade, while the Crypto Fear & Greed index sits at 33 — still fear. The number framing the mood is Q2: the total crypto market cap fell about 13% to $2.1T, so confidence is rebuilding slower than price. But under the tape the demand is real — spot-ETF inflows have extended to a sixth straight day, adding another $203M, and Michael Saylor says BTC may have already bottomed at $60,000. Off bitcoin, Solana pulled $330M of stablecoins in a day and set a $52M weekly record in tokenized-equity lending, XRP’s ledger passed a million AI-agent transactions, and the CLARITY Act inched forward with Trump agreeing to crypto ethics rules. Macro leans cautious into the megacap prints — Nasdaq futures slipped, UK inflation cooled to 2.6%, gold firmed on Middle East risk, and the US slapped fresh 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian goods. No chart or scenarios today — this one is built straight from the ChartHackers News Terminal; the full BTC report returns with the daily chart. Constructive while the ETF bid holds; nothing confirmed until sentiment lifts.

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🟢 CRYPTO

The constructive case: spot-ETF demand has extended to a sixth straight day (+$203M) and Saylor is calling a $60K bottom, while Solana logged a $330M stablecoin inflow in 24 hours and a $52M weekly record in tokenized-equity lending. XRP’s ledger just passed a million AI-agent transactions, and the CLARITY Act moved forward with crypto ethics rules agreed. Pockets of real demand keep showing up under a scared tape.

🟡 MACRO

It’s a big-tech earnings day: Nasdaq futures are under pressure ahead of Tesla and Alphabet, with the AI trade in focus. UK inflation cooled faster than expected to 2.6% ahead of the Bank of England, gold is firm on Middle East risk and Fed rate-cut bets, and the yen is weak again. A mixed macro backdrop that leans risk-cautious into the prints — the dovish rate story and the geopolitical-risk story are both live.

🔴 WATCH

F&G at 33 is fear for a reason, and the crypto cap fell 13% to $2.1T in Q2. Tesla enters earnings with shorts piling in and technicals weakening, the US just slapped fresh 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian goods, and the SEC filed a $22M crypto-mining fraud suit. A steady-bid-into-fear tape can fade fast if the earnings prints sour, so this is a bid to respect, not to chase.

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📋 SUMMARY

Fear on the index (33) but a steady bid under the tape — BTC near $66K with spot-ETF inflows on a six-day streak (+$203M) and Saylor calling a $60K bottom, against a Q2 that stripped 13% off the crypto cap. Macro leans cautious into Tesla and Alphabet earnings, with UK inflation cooling and gold firm on Middle East risk. Constructive while ETF inflows hold; nothing confirmed until sentiment lifts. We’ll track it in Discord through the day.

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WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

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🔭 SPECIAL — THE ETF BID KEEPS GRINDING WHILE THE INDEX STAYS SCARED

The whole story today is the gap between the index and the flows. Fear & Greed says 33 — still fear — and the Q2 tape was rough, with the total crypto market cap sliding 13% to $2.1T. But bitcoin is holding near $66K, and the reason is the bid: spot-ETF demand has extended to a sixth straight day, another $203M added into a nervous market. Michael Saylor put a marker down too, saying BTC may already have bottomed at $60,000 — a marquee holder calling the floor while sentiment stays cautious.

Underneath bitcoin, the demand is rotating in pockets. Solana pulled roughly $330M of stablecoin inflows in a single day led by Circle, and lending against tokenized equities there set a $52M weekly record — fresh dry powder and structural plumbing being built out regardless of the mood. The XRP Ledger passed a million AI-agent transactions, an early sign of autonomous on-chain activity that doesn’t care what the fear index reads. And the CLARITY Act inched forward with Trump agreeing to a set of crypto ethics rules — slow, structural progress on the market-structure file most desks are still waiting on.

The patient read: a steady bid inside fear is a real thing to respect, but it isn’t a bottom until sentiment lifts and the earnings tape cooperates. Tesla and Alphabet report into a jumpy Nasdaq, and there’s plenty of macro noise — fresh 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, a weak yen, Middle East supply risk keeping gold and oil firm. Constructive while inflows persist; if the megacap prints sour, fear can reassert fast. Respect the bid, don’t chase it.

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📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 BTC Holds Near $66K Into Big-Tech Earnings — Fear Reads 33 as the ETF Bid Holds the Line

Bitcoin is sitting around $66,020, slipping just under $66K as traders wait on Tesla and Alphabet earnings to gauge the AI trade (CoinDesk). Fear & Greed reads 33 — still fear — and the crypto cap fell 13% to $2.1T through Q2. But under the tape the bid is steady: spot-ETF inflows have extended to a sixth straight day (+$203M) and Saylor says BTC may have bottomed at $60K. A two-way day — constructive while the ETF bid holds, cautious if the prints sour.

🟢 Bitcoin ETFs Extend Inflow Streak to Six Days, Adding $203M

Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in another $203m, extending their net-inflow streak to six straight sessions even with F&G stuck in fear (CoinTelegraph). It’s the classic set-up where the institutional bid keeps grinding in while sentiment stays scared — the steadiest thread under a nervous tape, and the one bulls point to when they argue the lows are in.

🔵 Saylor Says Bitcoin May Have Bottomed at $60,000

Michael Saylor says bitcoin may have already put in its bottom around $60,000, framing the recent washout as the kind of level long-term holders lean into (CoinPedia). It’s the bull-case marker of the day — a marquee holder calling the floor while the index still reads fear. Treat it as a view, not a guarantee: it firms the base narrative but nothing is confirmed until sentiment lifts.

🔴 Crypto Market Cap Dropped 13% to $2.1T in Q2, CoinGecko Says

The total crypto market cap fell about 13% to $2.1T over the second quarter, according to CoinGecko’s latest report (Crypto Briefing). It’s the number that frames why the index still reads fear even with BTC near $66K — a lot of value came out of the market over the quarter, and confidence rebuilds slower than price does.

🟡 Nasdaq Futures Slip Ahead of Tesla and Alphabet Earnings

Nasdaq futures came under pressure ahead of results from Tesla and Alphabet, with traders using the megacap prints to gauge whether the AI trade still has legs (Seeking Alpha). Big-tech earnings are the risk hinge for the whole tape this week — a strong read supports risk appetite into crypto, a miss can pull the rug on a fearful market fast.

🔴 Tesla Enters Earnings With Shorts Piling In, Technicals Weakening

Tesla heads into its print with short interest building and the technical picture softening, according to S3 Partners (Seeking Alpha). It’s one of the two megacaps setting the risk tone today, and the positioning tells you traders are braced for a jumpy reaction — the kind of single-name volatility that can spill into a nervous crypto tape either way.

🟡 UK Inflation Cools Faster Than Expected to 2.6% in June

UK inflation fell more than expected to 2.6% in June as cheaper petrol and food dragged the headline down, just ahead of the Bank of England’s next rate decision (FT, Guardian). Softer inflation nudges the door open for cuts — a broadly dovish read that tends to support risk assets, crypto included, at the margin.

🟡 Gold Firms on Middle East Risk and Fed Rate-Cut Bets

Gold pushed higher as Middle East supply risk and softening Fed expectations gave bullion a bid, with oil also climbing on Hormuz chokepoint worries (Crypto Daily). It’s the safe-haven side of a two-way macro tape — a reminder that the dovish rate story and the geopolitical-risk story are both live under today’s prices.

🟢 Trump Agrees to Crypto Ethics Rules as the CLARITY Act Moves Forward

The market-structure push took another step as President Trump agreed to a set of crypto ethics rules folded into the CLARITY Act, the bill that would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC (Crypto Briefing). Clearer rules of the road are the structural bull case most desks are still waiting on — each step toward a defined framework chips at the regulatory overhang that keeps institutional allocations cautious.

🟢 Solana Sees $330M Stablecoin Inflow in 24 Hours, Led by Circle

Solana pulled in roughly $330m of stablecoin inflows in a single day, led by Circle’s USDC (Crypto Briefing). Fresh stablecoin supply landing on a chain is dry powder — capital staged to trade — and it’s one of the cleaner signs of demand rotating toward Solana even while headline prices chop under a fearful reading.

🔵 Solana Tokenized Equities Hit a $52M Weekly Lending Record

Lending against tokenized equities on Solana hit a $52m weekly record, a fresh high for the real-world-asset niche (Crypto Briefing). It’s the tokenization narrative quietly compounding: on-chain stock exposure being used as collateral is exactly the kind of structural plumbing that keeps building out regardless of the day’s risk mood.

🔵 XRP Ledger Surpasses One Million AI Agent Transactions

The XRP Ledger has now processed more than a million AI-agent transactions, a milestone for the “agents paying agents” use case (CoinPedia). It’s early and the volumes are small in dollar terms, but autonomous on-chain activity is one of the newer threads worth watching — a demand source that doesn’t care what the fear index reads.

🔴 BIS Warns USD Stablecoins Can Evade Capital Controls

The Bank for International Settlements warned that dollar stablecoins can be used to sidestep national capital controls, challenging how traditional markets are regulated (The Block). It’s a reminder that as stablecoins scale, the policy fight scales with them — the overhang cuts both ways, and cross-border reach is exactly what regulators worry about most.

🔴 US Slaps New 50% Tariffs on $20B of Canadian Goods

Washington imposed fresh 50% tariffs on some $20bn worth of Canadian products, another escalation in the trade file (Investing.com). Tariff headlines feed the inflation-and-growth worry that keeps risk two-sided — the same macro noise the watch read is flagging, and a reason a fearful tape stays one headline away from a move.

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📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 33 — still fear — and yet the bid keeps grinding. That gap is the whole story today. Bitcoin’s near $66K, just under it, and the reason isn’t hope, it’s flows: spot-ETF demand has extended to a sixth straight day, another $203M in, and Saylor’s out there calling a $60K bottom. The Q2 number — crypto cap down 13% to $2.1T — is why the index still reads scared, but the demand under the tape is real, and it’s rotating: Solana pulling $330M of stablecoins, tokenization setting records, XRP’s ledger ticking past a million AI-agent transactions. I like the texture — but a steady bid inside fear is exactly that until sentiment actually lifts and the earnings tape cooperates. Tesla and Alphabet report into a jumpy Nasdaq, and the macro wire is busy — fresh tariffs on Canada, a weak yen, Middle East risk keeping gold and oil firm. So it’s a respect-the-bid day, not a chase-it day: I want to see the prints land and sentiment lift before I lean in. Keep size sensible, and we’ll trade the line together in Discord. No chart today — this one’s straight off the terminal wire — but the full BTC report is back with the daily chart.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

BTC’s holding up well at $62,795, all things considered — it’s had a good run off the lows and hasn’t given much back even with the tape full of war headlines. The order block around 61,300 lines up with a possible equal low to the prior wick and is the floor buyers have defended before; the 65,000–67,000 supply is the ceiling overhead. The warning is a stack of divergences on the oscillator plus fresh Middle East risk: the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran after tanker attacks, Iran downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone, and nearly $1B swept across exchanges in liquidations. Fear & Greed reads 20 — still deep in extreme fear — yet price is refusing to break. It firms if BTC shrugs off the news and holds up here and taps the OB toward the 65–67K supply; it weakens if the divergences play out and the headlines drag it back to the order block below.

Your BTC summary today

🟢 BULLISH

Considering everything, BTC has held up well — it’s still sitting at 62,795 after the run off the lows and hasn’t given much back. For the bulls, the bounce zone to lean on is the order block below around 61,300, which lines up with a possible equal low to the previous wick at 61,300 — the kind of level buyers have defended before. As long as price holds up here and doesn’t lose that structure, there’s still a case for another push toward the 65,000–67,000 supply. Lots of war news today so we will need to see how that plays out.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Price is ranging in the middle of multiple order blocks without fully committing either way. Local bounce is potentially at the OB below around 61,300 and the equal-low area from the prior wick. Ceiling is the 65,000–67,000 supply overhead. Until BTC either breaks up into that resistance or drops back to test the OB, this reads as chop between the two.

🔴 BEARISH

The warning is all those divergences stacking up on the oscillator (blue) — price pushing higher while the oscillator rolls over, which points to the move tiring. On top of that, there’s some war talk in the headlines today, and that kind of macro risk can lean bearish and knock sentiment quickly. If the divs play out and the news is accurate and sustainable, a fade back toward the OB at 61,300 and the equal-low area comes into play. As long as we get an RSI reset at that 61.3k level we won’t have given too much back potentially and we can be in an uptrend still.

📋 SUMMARY

BTC’s holding up well at 62,795 all things considered, but there are warning signs. Bearish case: multiple divergences are now stacked on the oscillator, and some war talk in the headlines today adds macro risk that can lean bearish. Bullish case: price has been resilient, and the bounce zone at the OB around 61,300 — lining up with a possible equal low to the prior wick — is where buyers could step back in. In between, we can potentially expect a range between 61,300 and 65,000. It firms up if BTC shrugs off the news and holds up here; it weakens if the divs play out and the headlines drag it back to the OB below. We will be sure to keep up to date in Discord all day with this.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — RESILIENCE IN THE TAPE WHILE THE HEADLINES SCREAM WAR

The whole story today is a market that keeps holding up while everything around it is trying to knock it over. Bitcoin is sitting at $62,795 after a good run off the lows, and all things considered it hasn’t given much back — even as the tape fills with war headlines. The US launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iran after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the Treasury revoked the licence allowing Iranian oil sales and crude pushed higher, Iran downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone, and crypto did what it does when geopolitical risk spikes: roughly $1 billion swept across exchanges in liquidations, the bulk of it leveraged longs. That’s the macro backdrop the scenarios keep flagging — risk that can move fast and knock sentiment quickly.

Underneath the noise, price is doing that resilient thing that a base does while it forms. The order block around 61,300 lines up with a possible equal low to the prior wick — the kind of level buyers have defended before — and the 65,000–67,000 supply is the ceiling. The warning is a stack of divergences on the oscillator: price pushing higher while the oscillator rolls over, an early sign the move is tiring. And there are real bids showing up in the wreckage — Tom Lee’s BitMine added another $73m of ETH to reach 4.8% of supply, a patient corporate bid leaning into weakness while spot ETFs bleed. Fear & Greed reads 20, still deep in extreme fear, yet BTC refuses to break. So it’s a hold-the-structure day: shrug off the news and hold here, tap the OB toward the 65–67K supply and the base firms; let the divs play out and the headlines drag it back to 61,300 and we reset lower. As long as we get an RSI reset at that 61.3k level, we won’t have given too much back and can still be in an uptrend.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 BTC Holds $62.8K as War Returns to the Headlines — Fear Reads Extreme at 20

Bitcoin is sitting at $62,795 after its run off the lows, and all things considered it’s held up well — it hasn’t given much back even with the tape full of war headlines (Crypto.com, Bybit). The order block around 61,300 lines up with a possible equal low to the prior wick and is the floor buyers have defended before; the 65,000–67,000 supply is the ceiling. F&G reads 20 — extreme fear — yet price is refusing to break. Hold this and the OB stays the base; lose 61,300 with the divs playing out and we retest lower.

🔴 US Launches a Fresh Wave of Iran Strikes After Tanker Attacks

US Central Command says it hit some 80 Iranian military targets in response to Tehran’s attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after the Treasury revoked the general licence allowing Iranian oil sales (Financial Times). Crude pushed higher on the news, and Iran’s chief negotiator accused Washington of major violations of their ceasefire. It’s the macro backdrop the BTC scenarios are flagging — risk that can move fast.

🔴 Iran Downs a US MQ-9 Reaper as Risk-Off Hits Crypto — Nearly $1B Liquidated

Iran’s IRGC shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone, and crypto did what it does when geopolitical risk spikes: roughly $1 billion swept across exchanges in liquidations, the bulk of it leveraged longs (Crypto Briefing). The lesson is the one the scenarios keep making — leverage into a headline-driven tape cuts both ways, and the forced selling is exactly how a fast fade toward the order block would play out.

🟡 Gold Wavers as US–Iran Tensions Rise, Fed Minutes Awaited

Spot gold is near $4,155 an ounce, steadying after a dip as traders weigh the US–Iran conflict and wait on Fed minutes (Crypto Briefing). Disrupted flows through Hormuz have pushed Brent above $72, feeding inflation worries just as pricing shows about a one-in-three chance of a July 29 hike. The June FOMC minutes on the 9th are the next read on new Chair Warsh’s stance — a macro hinge for risk assets, crypto included.

🔴 Hormuz Crisis Escalates — Prediction Markets Nudge Invasion Odds to 14.5%

With both sides imposing rival blockades and a signed understanding torn up, prediction markets now price the chance of a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at about 14.5% YES, up from 12% a day earlier (Crypto Briefing). It’s a thin, fast-moving market, but the direction tells you how traders are leaning — and why a risk-off crypto tape stays one headline away from a move.

🟢 BitMine Adds $73M in ETH, Lifting Its Stake to 4.8% of Supply

Tom Lee’s BitMine Immersion bought another 42,197 ETH — about $73m — over the past week, taking its treasury to 5.74 million ETH, roughly 4.8% of circulating supply (The Defiant). Its total crypto and cash pile is around $11.1bn, and staking held steady even as the balance grew. It’s a patient corporate bid leaning into weakness while spot ETFs bleed — the kind that firms a base once the macro noise settles.

🔵 XRP Ledger Tokenized Assets Balloon to $4B, Chasing Ethereum and BNB

Tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger have jumped from about $150m to over $4bn inside a year, putting XRP among the top handful of tokenization networks alongside Ethereum and BNB Chain (Crypto Briefing). Institutional adoption, spot-XRP ETF inflows and an energy-backed token are doing the lifting. Real-world-asset growth is one of the steadier threads under a fearful market — slower to move, but it compounds.

🟡 Ethereum Presses Toward $1,800 — Two Metrics Flash Caution

ETH has rebounded from $1,500 and is pushing back toward the $1,800 supply zone, but two reads urge caution: Binance reserves have climbed to 3.89 million ETH and recent liquidations topped $130m (AMBCrypto). $1,800 overlaps one of Ethereum’s largest cost-basis clusters, so plenty of holders are near breakeven and may sell into strength. It needs fresh demand to absorb that overhead before the recovery firms.

🔵 Tether Puts $20M Into Mercado Bitcoin for a Latin America Push

Tether is investing $20m in a strategic round for Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin as the pair build out blockchain-based finance across Latin America (Decrypt). Mercado says it now serves 4.5 million users and has issued more than $387m in tokenized assets, with the fresh capital aimed at payments, lending and on-chain capital markets. Another sign the stablecoin issuer is planting flags in fast-growing emerging markets.

🟢 Polymarket Switches On Instant Bitcoin Deposits Over Lightning

Prediction market Polymarket now supports instant, self-custodial Bitcoin deposits via the Lightning Network, using infrastructure from Spark (Bitcoin Magazine). It replaces on-chain deposits that could take 10–60 minutes and multiple confirmations, crediting funds in under a second. Faster, cheaper funding lowers the barrier for the Bitcoin holders who make up a big slice of the crypto audience — a real utility win for Lightning.

🔵 Ondo Perps Goes Live With 20x Leverage on Tokenized Stocks

Ondo Finance has launched Ondo Perps in public beta, the first venue to offer on-chain perpetual futures on tokenized US stocks and commodities with up to 20x leverage (CryptoNewsZ). Traders outside the US can use tokenized equity holdings as collateral, and the first week ships $150k in USDC rewards. It builds on Ondo Global Markets, which has tokenized 430-plus US assets — another step in the RWA-meets-derivatives race.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed reads 20 — still deep in extreme fear — and that’s the frame for a war-watch day. BTC’s at $62,795 and, all things considered, holding up well after a good run off the lows: it hasn’t given much back even with a new wave of US strikes on Iran, an MQ-9 downed and nearly $1B in liquidations sweeping the tape. I lean constructive while price holds this structure — the order block around 61,300 lines up with a possible equal low to the prior wick, and that’s where buyers have stepped in before. The tell today is resilience: BitMine adding $73m of ETH into weakness, price refusing to break inside extreme fear. But the warnings are real — divergences are stacking on the oscillator and macro risk can knock sentiment fast, so this is a treat-with-caution day, not a chase. I want to see BTC shrug off the news, hold up here, and tap the OB toward the 65–67K supply before I lean in; I’m watching FOMC minutes on the 9th and CPI on the 14th. Respect the run, don’t chase it: hold 61,300, keep size sensible, and if we do fade, an RSI reset at that 61.3k level keeps the uptrend alive. We’ll trade the line together in Discord all day.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

It’s a resistance day. Bitcoin pushed up to tag $64,701 overnight — its highest in about two weeks — before fading back to around $63,055, essentially flat on the day and holding just above the Quantum Reactor after a good run off the lows. The reclaim wicked into the supply above and got turned back: the moving averages and anchored VWAP channel are stacked overhead, and multiple divergences are now showing on the 4H, with the cashflow wave still green but starting to flatten. Bulls kept buying dips on leverage even as Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold $216m of BTC, and the altcoin ETFs (XRP +$17.2m, Solana +$5.8m, HYPE +$4.3m) drew cash while spot bitcoin and ether funds bled a record eighth straight negative week. Fear & Greed ticked up to 27 but it’s still extreme fear. The Fed is now seen holding on July 29 (~80%), with CPI on July 14 and FOMC minutes on the 9th the next macro tests. Treat it with caution rather than chase it — it firms if flow rebuilds and we tap the order block toward the 65–67K supply; it weakens if the divergences play out and price fades off the reactor toward 60,000.

Your morning BTC chart and outlook.

🟢 BULLISH

For the bulls to keep this going, we need to turn RSI back up, get more cashflow coming in, tap the order block above, and break up through the moving averages and the anchored VWAP (blue line) that are sitting overhead. That’s a lot of resistance to clear in one go, so it’s a resistance day and one to treat with caution — but we’ve had a good run off the lows so far, so the momentum’s earned. Hold above the reactor, keep the flow positive, and the OB above stays the target.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Worth noting there was a wick down to the Quantum Reactor on this last move, so one scenario is we come back and fill that before deciding — price dipping to retest the reactor as support before any push higher. It doesn’t have to resolve up straight away. Until we either tap the OB above or lose the reactor below, this reads as price working the middle, so we can potentially expect a range roughly between the reactor around 62,000 and the 65,000–67,000 supply while it sorts itself out.

🔴 BEARISH

There are multiple divergences showing now, and price is potentially stalling without even reaching the OB above — that’s the warning. The cashflow wave is very green but starting to flatten and tick down a bit, which can be an early sign the flow is easing off. If the divergences play out and price can’t make the OB, a fade back toward the reactor and the 60,000 area comes into play. While those divs are live and price is stalling under resistance, sellers could step in here rather than let it tag the block.

📋 SUMMARY

Resistance day, treat with caution — BTC’s at 63,055 after a good run off the lows. Bullish case: turn RSI back up, keep cashflow coming in, tap the OB above and break through the MAs and anchored VWAP stacked overhead. Bearish case: multiple divergences are now showing, price is potentially stalling before it even reaches the OB, and the cashflow wave is flattening — signs the move may be tiring. Neutral case: there was a wick down to the Quantum Reactor, so we could come back and fill that before deciding. We can potentially expect a range between ~62,000 and the 65,000–67,000 supply. It firms up if flow rebuilds and we tap the OB; it weakens if the divs play out and price fades off the reactor. Good run so far — we’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — REAL BIDS IN POCKETS, BUT THE CEILING IS DOING ITS JOB

The whole story today is a run that finally bumped into the ceiling. Bitcoin tagged $64,701 overnight — its highest in about two weeks — then faded back to $63,055, holding just above the Quantum Reactor. That poke into the $64–66.5K supply and the fade back off it is what makes this a resistance day: the moving averages and anchored VWAP channel sit above as layered resistance, and multiple divergences have now printed on the 4H while the cashflow wave, still green, has started to flatten and tick down. We’ve earned the run off the lows, but this is a level to respect rather than chase.

Underneath, the tape is doing that split-personality thing a base does while it forms. Bulls kept pressing the bid with leverage — bitcoin overtook $64K and rising perpetual funding shows traders getting aggressive again — and they did it even as Strategy sold $216m of BTC, the kind of supply that would have knocked a weaker tape. The flow picture is the tension: spot bitcoin ETFs booked a record eighth straight negative week (~$527m out, ~$5.5bn net-out year-to-date) and BlackRock’s IBIT bled an 11th session, yet Fidelity’s FBTC led a $221.7m inflow day, spot ether ETFs snapped two positive sessions, and the altcoin products (XRP, Solana, HYPE) all drew cash. Capitulation signals keep stacking too — CME open interest at a 32-month low and put skew near record highs, which ARP Digital reads as the shift “from falling knife to contested floor.” And the calendar decides the next leg: with the Fed now seen holding on July 29 (~80% odds), CPI on July 14 and FOMC minutes on the 9th are the prints that either extend the squeeze or snuff it out. So it’s a hold-the-reactor day: tap the OB toward the 65–67K supply and the base firms; lose the reactor and 60,000, and the 57,755 swing low comes back into play.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 BTC Pokes $64.7K Overnight, Then Fades to $63K Under Stacked Resistance

Bitcoin pushed up to tag $64,701 overnight — its highest in about two weeks — before fading back to around $63,055, holding just above the Quantum Reactor (Crypto.com, CoinDesk). The reclaim wicked into the supply above and got turned back: it’s a resistance day, with the moving averages and anchored VWAP stacked overhead and multiple divergences now showing. F&G ticked up to 27 but it’s still extreme fear — a level to treat with caution rather than chase.

🟢 Bulls Buy the Dip on Leverage as Strategy Sells $216M of BTC

Bitcoin overtook $64K as buyers used leverage to press the bid, shrugging off a $216m bitcoin sale by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (Cointelegraph). Rising perpetual funding shows traders getting aggressive again — a sign of returning risk appetite, but also of leverage that can cut both ways if the push into supply keeps fading back toward the reactor.

🔴 Bitcoin ETFs Book an Eighth Straight Negative Week — $527M Out Despite a $222M Inflow Day

Spot bitcoin ETFs just logged their eighth consecutive negative week, a record run, shedding roughly $527m even after Thursday’s standout $221.7m inflow (SoSoValue, Wu Blockchain). Year-to-date the funds are now net-out some $5.5bn, and BlackRock’s IBIT bled an 11th straight session even as Fidelity’s FBTC led the inflow day. Money is trickling back day to day, but the weekly tape is still bleeding.

🟢 “From Falling Knife to Contested Floor” — Capitulation Signals Pile Up

ARP Digital calls the reclaim of the low-$60Ks the most constructive signal crypto has offered in weeks, pointing to forced, indiscriminate late-June selling, CME futures open interest at a 32-month low and six-month put skew near record highs (CCN). Historically that mix marks local exhaustion — a level to accumulate with discipline, not a confirmed bottom.

🟡 $65–67K Is the Wall — A Falling Wedge Eyes $72K on a Break

On the 4H, BTC is testing the top of a falling wedge as it presses the supply zone between $64,000 and $66,500 (CCN). A decisive close above $65–67K would strengthen the reversal case and open a path toward $72K; a rejection sends price back to consolidate the $60–61K support. Price is still below its declining 100- and 200-period averages — the layered resistance the scenarios flag.

🟡 Fed Seen Holding on July 29 (~80%); CPI on July 14 Is the Next Test

CME FedWatch shows roughly an 80% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting after the soft June payrolls print (QCP Capital, CME). QCP says a supportive CPI reading is what’s needed to confirm a policy shift — making the July 14 inflation number, with FOMC minutes on the 9th ahead of it, the macro hinge this relief bounce is leaning on.

🔵 Rotation, Not Exit — Altcoin ETFs Draw Cash While BTC and ETH Bleed

While spot bitcoin and ether ETFs booked an eighth straight negative week, the altcoin products bucked the trend: XRP funds pulled $17.2m, Solana $5.8m and Hyperliquid $4.3m of net inflows over the same four sessions (Bitcoin.com, KuCoin). Small numbers against BTC’s outflows, but a clear sign of selective, rotating demand rather than a broad exit.

🟢 XRP Leads the Majors on Upbit After a Slide to $1

XRP is outpacing bitcoin and ethereum on Korea’s Upbit, extending its lead as the reclaim broadens (Digital Today). It follows a brutal stretch — XRP holders capitulated at the fastest pace since the 2022 crash as price tested $1 last week — making this one of the sharper fear-to-strength swings among the majors. Quick moves like this into a fragile tape are ones to manage, not marry.

🔵 ETH Hovers Near $1,770 — $2,200 Is the Level to Clear

Ethereum is holding near $1,770 after bouncing with the market, with $2,200 the resistance that has repeatedly capped rallies and a dense band of leverage sitting just under it (BitRss). Reclaim and hold above and the door opens toward $2,350–$2,400, fail and ETH keeps ranging. Spot ETH ETFs closed the week on back-to-back inflow days, led by BlackRock’s ETHA — a fragile turn to confirm, not trust.

🟡 ETF Flows Now Explain About 45% of Weekly Bitcoin Moves

Research cited in recent coverage estimates spot-ETF flows now account for roughly 45% of bitcoin’s weekly price action (Investing.com). Every dollar in or out buys or sells spot directly — which is why the 10-day outflow run drove the drop and Thursday’s inflow validated the bounce. It also means the flow tape, not sentiment, is the leading tell to watch from here.

🔵 Global Crypto Market Cap Adds 2.4% to $2.22T as Breadth Improves

Total crypto market capitalisation rose about 2.4% over 24 hours to roughly $2.22tn as the relief bid broadened beyond bitcoin (CoinGecko, BitRss). Improving breadth off deeply washed-out levels is a healthier look than bitcoin going it alone — though the tape still has to prove it can hold the gains once the holiday-thin liquidity fills back in.

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📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed ticks up to 27 — still extreme fear — and that’s the frame for a resistance day. BTC poked $64.7K overnight then faded to $63,055, holding just above the Quantum Reactor after a good run off the lows, but the ceiling did its job: the MAs and anchored VWAP sit above and multiple divergences have printed while the cashflow wave, still green, is starting to flatten. I lean constructive while we hold the reactor and the run stays intact — bulls buying dips on leverage even as Strategy sold $216m is a real tell, and the capitulation signals (CME OI at a 32-month low, put skew near records) keep stacking. But a poke into supply that fades, inside extreme fear, is exactly that until we actually tap the order block and the weekly ETF picture stops bleeding — eight straight negative weeks is not nothing. It’s a treat-with-caution day: I want to see RSI turn back up, the flow rebuild, and a tag of the OB toward the 65–67K supply before I lean in, and I’m watching FOMC minutes on the 9th and CPI on the 14th. Respect the run, don’t chase it: hold the reactor and 60,000, keep size sensible, and we’ll trade the line together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

The reclaim is real, the conviction still is in doubt. Bitcoin has clawed back above $63K — printing $63,589 into the July 6 session, its highest in over a month — after surging from below $60,000 in just five trading days, and on the 4H it’s now trading above the Quantum Reactor at 63,174, with that curve potentially flipping to support. The fuel was a classic short squeeze: June payrolls came in soft at 57,000 against a 110,000 forecast, rate-hike odds slid to ~54% from 66%, and spot bitcoin ETFs flipped to net inflows (~$221.7m on July 4, Fidelity leading) after the year’s longest outflow streak. The majors joined in — ETH ran +11% on the week, Solana went double-digit, and XRP led the large caps up ~5% — while Kraken began letting non-US traders post tokenized stocks like Apple and Tesla as collateral and OKX teamed with ICE on regulated 24/7 rails. But the Crypto Fear & Greed index is still pinned at 24, deep in extreme fear, a bearish divergence has printed, and CoinShares still calls this early-stage bottoming while bears eye the $53–54K realized-price floor. It’s an important day — hold the reactor and tag the order block above and the base firms; a range of 60,000–66,500 while it decides. Respect the reclaim, don’t chase it.

Your daily BTC chart update and outlook.

🟢 BULLISH

We’re now trading above the Quantum Reactor (see red curved line below), so that could be flipping to support underneath us. The cashflow wave still has money flowing in, which keeps the momentum on the bulls’ side for now. From here the thing to watch is whether we can push up and actually reach the order block above — hold the reactor as a floor and that’s the target that comes into play. Its worth noticing all our MA’s are above too.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Right now price is potentially pushing up toward the range high around 66,500. The question is whether we turn down before we get there or carry through. We’re aware the bearish divergence has printed, so this is an important day — it could just as easily stall and range under the highs. So we can potentially expect a range between roughly 60,000 and 66,500 until we see whether the push into the range high holds or fades.

🔴 BEARISH

The bearish divs have formed but so far haven’t played out. The thing to watch is whether we get one more push up into the OB above that finally triggers a rejection — that’s often how these resolve. We will be watching for our multiple bearish div line as well. Worth noting the MAs and the VWAP channel are all sitting above too, so there’s layered resistance up there to get through. While those divs are live and price hasn’t cleared the supply, sellers could step back in on the approach.

📋 SUMMARY

Important day — BTC is trading above the Quantum Reactor at 63,174, with that curve now potentially flipping to support. Bullish case: cashflow still shows money flowing in, and holding the reactor keeps the OB above as a target. Neutral case: we’re pushing up toward the range high at ~66,500, and it’s a question of whether we turn down before we get there. Bearish case: the bear divs have printed but not played out yet — the risk is one more push into the OB, with the MAs and VWAP channel stacked above as added resistance. We can potentially expect a range between 60,000 and 66,500 while it decides. It firms up if the reactor holds and we tag the OB. Be sure to stick with us in Discord though the day to keep on top of this.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — REAL BIDS FINALLY SHOWING, BUT THE INDEX STILL SAYS FEAR

The whole story today is a reclaim that the sentiment hasn’t caught up to yet. Bitcoin surged from below $60,000 to above $63,000 in five sessions and tagged $63,589 — its highest in over a month — reversing the end-of-June lows. What actually moved it wasn’t a change of heart, it was a squeeze: June payrolls printed a weak 57,000 against a 110,000 forecast, the odds of a September rate hike dropped to roughly 54% from 66%, and bearish positions got forced to cover into a thin holiday tape. Underneath that, the piece bulls have wanted all cycle finally showed up — spot bitcoin ETFs flipped to net inflows, ~$221.7m on July 4 with Fidelity’s FBTC leading, ending the longest outflow streak of the year.

Here’s the tension, and why I keep saying respect it rather than chase it. The Fear & Greed index is still stuck at 24 — extreme fear — even as price prints a one-month high, and the 7- and 30-day ETF flows are still deeply negative despite that one good day. CoinShares reads the low-$60Ks as early-stage bottoming; Bitfinex counters that the bounce looks more like seller exhaustion than fresh demand and flags the Aggregate Realized Price near $54,000 as the cycle floor, with a slip toward $53K on the table if exchange deposits keep climbing. Same washed-out tape, opposite conclusions — which is exactly what a real bottom looks like while it’s forming. And the calendar decides the next leg: June FOMC minutes land July 9, fresh CPI right behind, the first proper read on the committee under Chair Warsh. A dovish tilt extends the squeeze; a hot inflation number can snuff it out just as fast. So it’s a hold-the-reactor day: above the Quantum Reactor at 63,174 with the OB above as the target, the base-building case strengthens; lose 60,000 and the 57,755 swing low and the leg lower resumes.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 Reclaimed on a Squeeze — BTC Tags $63.6K and Trades Back Above the Quantum Reactor

Bitcoin has clawed back above $63,000, printing $63,589 into July 6 — its highest in over a month — after surging from below $60,000 in just five trading days (Crypto.com, CoinDesk, Interactive Crypto). The move reversed the end-of-June lows and, on our 4H, price now sits above the Quantum Reactor at 63,174 with that curve potentially flipping to support. It’s a reclaim to respect, not to chase — F&G is still pinned at 24, so the tape has recovered but conviction plainly hasn’t.

🟢 Spot Bitcoin ETFs Flip to Net Inflows After the Year’s Longest Outflow Streak

US spot bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $221.7m of net inflows on July 4, reversing a 10-day outflow run — the longest of the year — with Fidelity’s FBTC leading the wave (Interactive Crypto, Farside). It’s the first real sign of institutional appetite returning, and that bid is exactly what tends to precede a durable low. The caveat: 7- and 30-day flows are still deep in the red, so treat it as a turn to confirm, not to trust yet.

🟡 Weak June Jobs Revive Rate-Cut Hopes — Hike Odds Slide to ~54%

June nonfarm payrolls added just 57,000 jobs against a 110,000 forecast, and markets repriced fast: the odds of a September rate hike fell to roughly 54% from 66% before the print (Cryptonomist, CME FedWatch). It follows Fed Chair Kevin Warsh telling the ECB’s Sintra forum that inflation risks have diminished. A softer Fed path is the macro wind at this bounce’s back — though nine of 18 FOMC officials still pencil in at least one hike this year.

🟡 CoinShares Still Reads Early-Stage Bottoming — Bears Eye the $53–54K Floor

Even after the reclaim, CoinShares frames the low-$60Ks as the early innings of a bottoming process rather than a clean reversal (AMBCrypto). The bear rebuttal is layered: Bitfinex calls the bounce more seller exhaustion than fresh demand, pointing to the Aggregate Realized Price near $54,000 as the cycle floor, with a slip toward $53K on the table if exchange deposits keep climbing. Same data, opposite reads.

🔵 Kraken Lets Non-US Traders Post Tokenized Stocks as Collateral

Kraken will now let eligible non-US users post tokenized stocks and ETFs — including Apple and Tesla — as collateral for futures and margin trades, blurring the line between equity and crypto margin in a single account (Crypto.com, Cointelegraph). It’s one of the clearest signs yet that tokenized real-world assets are moving from marketing decks into live trading plumbing, and that exchanges see RWAs as the next place to win balances.

🔵 OKX and ICE Launch OKXICE to Build Regulated 24/7 Crypto Rails

OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) unveiled a joint venture, OKXICE, aimed at building regulated round-the-clock crypto market infrastructure — combining traditional clearing systems with crypto trading, stablecoin payments and risk management (CoinGabbar). It’s another sign the plumbing under this market is being rebuilt to institutional standard while price chops sideways.

🟢 ETH Runs +11% on the Week as Solana Posts a Double-Digit Gain

Ethereum has added over 11% across the past seven days to trade near $1,790, with Solana logging its own double-digit weekly move, and spot ETH ETFs flipping to net inflows after 11 quiet trading days (BigGo, Farside). The majors are broadly participating in the relief bid rather than bitcoin going it alone — a healthier look for the bounce, even if ETH is still more than 50% below its 2025 high.

🟢 XRP Leads the Majors, Up ~5% in 24 Hours

XRP paced the large caps into July 6, up around 5% on the day and one of the standout movers on the reclaim (CoinDesk). It extends a strong run off the early-July lows, though a move this quick into a still-fearful tape is one to manage rather than marry — momentum leaders cut both ways when sentiment is this fragile.

🔵 GCC Steps In to Fund Independent Ethereum Researchers

After budget cuts at the Ethereum Foundation, the GCC has launched a $500,000 program to fund independent researchers working on protocol development, cryptography, privacy, MEV and infrastructure (CoinGabbar). It’s a small number in market terms but a meaningful signal that the community is closing funding gaps to keep core research moving — the kind of build-side story long-term holders weigh over a weekend candle.

🟡 Bigger Market, Harder Rallies — Doubling BTC Now Needs ~$101B of Fresh Capital

Analysts using Realized Cap estimate it would now take roughly $101bn of new capital to double bitcoin’s price, a world away from the early cycles (BigGo, CoinDesk). Around $697bn has flowed in this cycle for a ~689% gain — the market has matured, and the explosive vertical rallies of the past are simply harder to replicate at this size. A reason to expect grind, not fireworks.

🟡 FOMC Minutes and CPI Loom — First Real Clues Under Chair Warsh

The next leg hinges on the calendar: June FOMC minutes are due July 9, followed by fresh US CPI, together offering the first proper read on the committee’s stance under Kevin Warsh (BigGo). With bitcoin’s correlation to macro tighter than ever, both prints carry direct price risk — a dovish tilt could extend the squeeze, a hot inflation number could snuff it out just as fast.

🔴 ZachXBT Traces $5.5M of Laundered ETH as AudiA6 Suspects Are Arrested

On-chain sleuth ZachXBT tracked hackers laundering roughly 3,200 ETH (~$5.5m) through Tornado Cash, Circle’s CCTP and KuCoin after private-key leaks (CoinGabbar). Separately, US prosecutors announced the arrests of two alleged senior members of the AudiA6 money-laundering service in a coordinated international takedown — a reminder that infrastructure and security risk never sleeps, even on a green day.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 24 — extreme fear — and yet BTC just reclaimed $63K, printed a one-month high and pushed back above the Quantum Reactor at 63,174. That gap between price and conviction is the whole story today. The reclaim was driven by a squeeze — soft June jobs, sliding rate-hike odds, and the ETF bid finally flipping positive after the year’s longest outflow streak — but the index hasn’t moved, the 7- and 30-day flows are still net-out, and a bearish divergence has printed on the chart. CoinShares likes the texture and calls it early bottoming; the bears point to seller exhaustion and the $53–54K realized-price floor — same data, opposite reads, which is exactly what a washed-out tape looks like while a base forms. I lean constructive while we hold the reactor, but a reclaim inside extreme fear is exactly that until sentiment actually lifts and the weekly ETF picture stops bleeding. It’s an important day with the range high at 66,500 in play and the divs live, so I want to see us hold the reactor and tag the order block above before I lean in — and I’m watching FOMC minutes on the 9th and CPI right behind. Respect the bounce, don’t chase it: hold 60,000 and the 57,755 swing low, keep size sensible, and we’ll trade the line together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Extreme fear on the index but a reclaim on the tape. Bitcoin tagged $63,470 overnight and reversed the end-of-June lows before easing back to around $62,800, a fraction higher on the day — yet the Crypto Fear & Greed index is still pinned at 23, deep in extreme fear. Price has recovered but conviction has not, and the tension is in one line: spot ETFs pulled a $222m Thursday inflow and still logged a record eighth straight negative week — real bids, no belief. CoinShares reads the tape near $62K as early-stage bottoming; bears flag a slip toward $53K if exchange deposits keep climbing. Off bitcoin, XRP opened July up ~13%, Hyperliquid drew $116m of net inflows, and Kraken began letting traders post tokenized stocks as collateral for leveraged trades. Macro tilts a touch dovish — June jobs and inflation data read bullish for bonds — but a Senate bill aimed at Trump’s memecoin keeps the policy wire busy. No chart or scenarios today — this one is built straight from the ChartHackers News Terminal; the full BTC report returns with the daily chart. Constructive while the daily bid holds; nothing confirmed until sentiment lifts.

Your BTC chart this morning

🟢 BULLISH
Price has continued up off the 57,755 low to 62,783, and the Quantum Reactor (red curve) is now sitting just below as support rather than capping from above. If price holds above it and uses it as a floor, the bounce has room to run toward the order block up at ~67,000 (the green box / 46.32% zone). The oscillator pushed to a higher high with the move, and as long as the Quantum Reactor holds on any pullback, the path stays pointed up into that OB. For the bullish case, buyers want to defend the reactor line and keep pressing toward the supply above.

🟡 NEUTRAL
Price has cleared the lows and is mid-move, so this could just as easily settle into a range before it decides. Floor is the Quantum Reactor just below, then the 60,000 line and the 58,000–60,000 box beneath that. Ceiling is the 65,000 area and the ~67,000 OB above. Until BTC either tags and reclaims that OB or loses the reactor, this reads as a bounce working through the middle of the range.

🔴 BEARISH
The warning here is the bearish div forming on the oscillator — price has pushed to a higher high while the oscillator is rolling over, which can point to the move running out of steam as it approaches supply. If that div plays out, a rejection back down toward the Quantum Reactor and the 60,000 line comes into play, and a loss of the reactor would open the door back toward the box. While the bearish div is live and price hasn’t cleared the OB above, sellers may step back in on the approach into that 65,000–67,000 supply.

📋 SUMMARY

Extreme fear on the index (23) but BTC reclaimed $63K intraday and reversed the end-June lows before easing to ~$62.8k. ETFs pulled a $222m Thursday inflow yet still logged a record eighth straight negative week — the bull/bear tension in one line. CoinShares sees early bottoming; bears eye $53K if deposits keep rising. Pockets of strength in XRP, Hyperliquid and tokenized-stock rails at Kraken. Constructive while the daily bid holds; nothing confirmed until sentiment lifts. We’ll track it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

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🔭 SPECIAL — REAL BIDS, NO BELIEF

The whole story today is the gap between price and conviction. Bitcoin tagged $63,470 overnight and reversed the end-of-June lows — the reclaim bulls wanted — but Fear & Greed is still pinned at 23, deep in extreme fear, and the ETF tape tells you why nobody’s celebrating. Spot ETFs pulled a $222m inflow on Thursday and still closed out a record eighth straight negative week. That is this bounce in a single line: money is trickling back in day to day, but the weekly picture is still net-out. CoinShares reads it as the early stage of a bottoming process; the bears point at climbing exchange deposits and a possible slip toward $53K. Same data, opposite conclusions — which is exactly what a washed-out tape looks like.

The patient read: a reclaim inside extreme fear is a real thing to respect, but it isn’t a bottom until sentiment lifts and the ETF bid proves it can stick on a weekly basis, not just a good Thursday. Thin post-holiday weekend liquidity can stretch this in both directions, so I want a clean daily hold above $63K and follow-through — not hope. Constructive while the daily bid holds; if it stalls, extreme fear can reassert fast.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 BTC Reclaims $63K Intraday Then Eases as Extreme Fear Refuses to Budge

Bitcoin tagged $63,470 overnight before slipping back near $62,800, a fraction higher on the day, with the end-of-June lows now reversed (Crypto.com, CoinDesk). Yet F&G is still pinned at 23 — price has recovered but conviction plainly has not. A bounce inside fear, not a trend change; thin weekend liquidity can stretch it both ways, so the reclaim wants a clean daily hold above $63K before anyone calls the low in.

🟡 Bitcoin ETFs Log a Record Eighth Straight Negative Week — Despite a $222M Thursday Inflow

Spot bitcoin ETFs booked their eighth consecutive negative week, a record run of outflows, even though Thursday alone drew a $222m inflow with BlackRock the notable seller (The Block, AMBCrypto). Money is trickling back in day to day, but the weekly picture is still net-out — the tug-of-war under this bounce, and the clearest reason to treat the reclaim as real bids without belief.

🟡 CoinShares: BTC at $62K Still Looks Like the Early Stage of Bottoming

CoinShares says the tape near $62K still looks like the early innings of a bottoming process rather than a clean reversal (AMBCrypto). Others are less sanguine: with exchange deposits jumping, some analysts flag a slip toward $53K if the selling pressure follows through. The classic washed-out set-up where the bullish and bearish reads use the very same data.

🟡 June Jobs and Inflation Data Read as Bullish for Bonds

MarketWatch argues June’s payrolls and inflation prints tilt bullish for bonds — shorthand for a softer Fed path and lower yields ahead (MarketWatch). A more dovish rate backdrop is typically a tailwind for risk assets like crypto, and it’s part of the fundamental case sitting under this relief bounce. OPEC+ lifting output quotas eases the energy leg of the inflation picture too.

🔴 Senate Crypto Bill Could Force Trump Out of the Memecoin Business

A senator’s crypto bill is drafted in a way that could push President Trump out of the memecoin business (AMBCrypto). It lands as a separate report says nearly a million wallets are collectively down $3.81bn on his token — a reminder conflict-of-interest politics is now tangled directly into US market-structure law, and that the policy wire cuts both ways.

🔵 Revolut to Drop USDT Under MiCA as Circle Gains Ground

Revolut is reportedly preparing to drop Tether’s USDT under Europe’s MiCA regime, with Circle’s USDC picking up the momentum (AMBCrypto). A concrete example of MiCA reshaping the European stablecoin map in favour of regulated issuers — a structural shift in who holds the on-ramp that matters more for the next cycle than for today’s candle.

🔵 Kraken Lets Traders Use Tokenized Stocks as Collateral for Leveraged Trades

Kraken will now let traders post tokenized equities as collateral for leveraged positions, blurring the line between stock and crypto margin in a single account (Cointelegraph). One of the clearest signs yet that tokenized real-world assets are moving from marketing decks into live trading plumbing — and that exchanges see RWAs as the next place to win balances.

🟢 Hyperliquid Sees $116M of Net Inflows in 24 Hours

Perp-DEX Hyperliquid pulled roughly $116m of net inflows in a single day, boosting on-chain liquidity (Crypto Briefing). Fresh capital chasing the leading on-chain derivatives venue is a pocket of genuine risk appetite under an otherwise fearful market — and a sign the on-chain leverage crowd is far from done.

🔵 Vitalik Lays Out Priorities for a ‘Lean Ethereum’

Vitalik Buterin shared a “Lean Ethereum” strawmap, setting out top priorities for simplifying and hardening the protocol (Cointelegraph). It keeps the ETH build narrative moving while price chops — the sort of roadmap signal long-term holders weigh more heavily than a weekend candle.

🟢 XRP Opens July With a 13% Surge

XRP kicked off July up around 13%, with some pointing to seasonal history for more upside ahead (U.Today). The standout major on momentum this week, though a move this quick into a fearful tape is one to manage rather than marry.

🔴 Dogecoin Faces First Weekly Death Cross in Three Years

Dogecoin is setting up for a weekly death cross — its 50-week average crossing below the 200-week — for the first time in three years (U.Today). The signal lags by nature, but on a name this sentiment-driven it’s a caution flag worth noting on the memecoin side.

🟡 Nvidia Now Screens Cheaper Than Coca-Cola on Valuation

After its pullback, Nvidia now trades on a cheaper forward multiple than Coca-Cola, an eye-catching quirk of a jumpy equity tape (Nasdaq). It matters for crypto because AI-megacap risk appetite and Bitcoin have been trading in sympathy — a steadier Nvidia would help the broader risk bid.

🔵 Strategy Announces a Major Shake-Up to Its Bitcoin Plan

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) unveiled a major change to how it funds and manages its bitcoin accumulation, a shift markets are still digesting (Nasdaq). With Strategy the marquee corporate holder, any tweak to its playbook ripples through the “bitcoin treasury” trade a wave of copycats have piled into. Saylor separately branded bitcoin the “United States of Money” in a fresh institutional pitch.

🔴 Ethical Hackers Find a Flaw That Could Have Put $70B in Crypto at Risk

Researchers with a $3,000 server uncovered a flaw that could have put an estimated $70bn in crypto at risk before it was patched (CoinDesk). A reminder that infrastructure risk never sleeps — and that responsible disclosure is quietly one of the more important jobs in the space.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 23 — extreme fear — and yet bitcoin just reclaimed $63K and reversed the end-June lows. That gap between price and conviction is the whole story today. The ETF tape spells it out: a $222m inflow on Thursday, and still a record eighth straight negative week on the books. Real bids, no belief. CoinShares likes the texture and calls it early bottoming; the bears point at climbing exchange deposits and a path back toward $53K — same data, opposite reads, which is exactly what a washed-out market looks like. I lean constructive while the daily bid holds, but a reclaim inside extreme fear is exactly that until sentiment actually lifts and the weekly ETF picture stops bleeding. It’s a thin weekend tape, so moves cut both ways, and the reg wire (a Senate bill circling Trump’s memecoin) is a reminder the overhang hasn’t gone anywhere. So it’s a respect-the-bounce day, not a chase-it day: I want a clean hold above $63K and follow-through before I lean in. Keep size sensible, and we’ll trade the line together in Discord. No chart today — this one’s straight off the terminal wire — but the full BTC report is back with the daily chart.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Extreme fear on the index but a genuine relief bounce on the tape. Bitcoin is back near $62,679, up around 2% on the day, with ether following — even as the Crypto Fear & Greed index sits at 22, deep in extreme fear. The tell is that spot-ETF demand has turned back up into the weakness, and bitcoin’s profit-and-loss ratio just hit a 43-month low that several analysts read as a buying zone rather than a top. Off bitcoin, SOL is rallying on a memecoin and prediction-market surge, Cardano is up ~13% into its van Rossem upgrade, and XRP’s taker buy/sell ratio hit a 2026 high. Macro tilts a touch dovish — gold climbed as soft US jobs data softened Fed rate-hike expectations — but thin Fourth-of-July liquidity and a busy regulatory wire (ESMA on prediction markets, the CFTC on a proposed crypto tax) keep it two-sided. No chart or scenarios today — this one is built straight from the ChartHackers News Terminal; the full BTC report returns with the daily chart. Constructive while the ETF bid holds; nothing confirmed until sentiment lifts.

🟢 CRYPTO

The constructive case: BTC and ETH are extending relief rallies on renewed spot-ETF buying, and bitcoin’s P&L ratio just hit a 43-month low that analysts read as a buying zone. SOL is rallying on a memecoin and prediction-market surge, Cardano is up ~13% into its van Rossem upgrade, and XRP’s taker buy/sell ratio has hit a 2026 high — pockets of real demand under a scared tape.

🟡 MACRO

Gold is climbing as a soft US jobs (NFP) print dampens Fed rate-hike expectations — a dovish tilt that usually helps risk and hard assets. But the backdrop is messy: a US heatwave is straining power grids into the holiday, and equities are wobbling (Tesla’s worst day in nearly a year despite a delivery beat). Thin Fourth-of-July liquidity means outsized moves cut both ways.

🔴 WATCH

F&G at 22 is extreme fear for a reason, and the regulatory wire is busy — ESMA is warning prediction-market event contracts may fall under the EU binary-options ban, and the CFTC chair is pushing back on a proposed 0.2% crypto tax. Relief bounces inside fear can fade fast if ETF flows stall, so this is a bounce to respect, not to chase.

---

📋 SUMMARY

Extreme fear on the index (22) but a genuine relief bounce on the tape — BTC back near $62.7k on returning ETF demand, with a 43-month-low P&L ratio flagged as a buying zone and alts (SOL, ADA, XRP) showing selective strength. Macro tilts dovish on soft NFP, but thin holiday liquidity and a busy regulatory wire keep it two-sided. Constructive while ETF inflows hold; nothing confirmed until sentiment lifts. We’ll track it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — THE ETF BID IS BACK WHILE THE INDEX STAYS SCARED

The whole story today is the gap between the index and the tape. Fear & Greed says 22 — extreme fear — but bitcoin is up ~2% and holding near $62.7k, ether’s following, and the reason is flows: spot-ETF demand has turned back up into the weakness after a brutal stretch of redemptions. Underneath it, bitcoin’s P&L ratio has fallen to a 43-month low, the kind of washed-out reading that has clustered near local bottoms before. Even a report that MicroStrategy sold more BTC barely moved price — supply from a marquee holder getting absorbed without a flush is its own quiet tell.

The patient read: a bounce inside extreme fear is a real thing to respect, but it isn’t a bottom until sentiment lifts and the ETF bid proves it can stick. Thin Fourth-of-July liquidity can exaggerate this in both directions, so I want follow-through, not hope. Constructive while inflows persist; if the bid stalls, extreme fear can reassert fast.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 BTC & ETH Extend Relief Rallies as Extreme Fear Meets Renewed ETF Buying

Bitcoin is holding a relief bounce near $62,700, up ~2% on the day, with ether following, even as F&G sits at 22 (Cointelegraph). Spot-ETF demand turning back up into the weakness is the classic set-up where price grinds higher while sentiment stays scared. Still a bounce inside fear, not a trend change — thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate it either way, so it wants follow-through before anyone calls a bottom.

🟢 Bitcoin P&L Ratio Falls to a 43-Month Low Analysts Call a Buying Opportunity

Bitcoin’s profit-and-loss ratio has dropped to its lowest in 43 months, a capitulation-style reading several analysts frame as accumulation rather than a top (Crypto Briefing, Cointelegraph). Levels this washed-out have historically clustered near local bottoms — though “historically” is doing a lot of work with F&G still at 22. A contrarian on-chain signal that lines up with the ETF bid returning.

🔵 MicroStrategy Reportedly Sold More Bitcoin — and the Market Barely Reacted

Reports that MicroStrategy trimmed part of its position drew a muted response, with price shrugging it off and continuing to bounce (BeInCrypto). A non-reaction to a headline that would once have moved the tape is its own signal — marquee supply being absorbed without a flush is exactly the quiet strength bulls want under a fearful reading.

🟡 Gold Climbs as Weak NFP Data Dampens Fed Rate-Hike Expectations

A softer US jobs report pushed gold higher as markets pared back the odds of further Fed tightening (Crypto Briefing). A more dovish rate path tends to support both bullion and risk assets like crypto — one of the cleaner macro tailwinds under today’s bounce, and a reason the relief rally has some fundamental backing rather than pure short-covering.

🟢 CLARITY Act Regains Momentum After MCSA Policy Shift

The US CLARITY Act — the market-structure bill dividing crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC — is gaining fresh momentum after an MCSA policy shift (Coinpedia). Clearer rules of the road are the structural bull case most desks are still waiting on; each step toward a defined framework chips at the regulatory overhang keeping institutional allocations cautious.

🔴 CFTC Chair Warns Against Proposed 0.2% Crypto Tax

The CFTC chair has pushed back publicly on a proposed 0.2% crypto transaction tax, warning it could drive activity offshore (AMBCrypto). A reminder the US policy picture is still being fought in both directions at once — momentum on market structure on one hand, new tax and enforcement threats on the other.

🔵 Securitize Tokenizes $295M of Stock on Solana at IPO

Securitize tokenized roughly $295m of equity on Solana at IPO, one of the larger real-world-asset moves onto a public chain to date (Crypto Briefing). It keeps the tokenization narrative alive even while headline prices chop — and puts more institutional plumbing on Solana specifically.

🔵 eToro Takes Strategic Stake in Onchain Derivatives Exchange Extended, Plans Zengo Tie-Up

Retail-broker giant eToro has taken a strategic stake in Extended, an onchain derivatives exchange, and is planning a tie-up with self-custody wallet Zengo (The Defiant). Another sign of TradFi-adjacent platforms buying their way into onchain trading infrastructure rather than building it — the kind of quiet, structural move that matters more than a day of price action.

🟢 SOL Rallies as Solana Memecoins and Prediction-Market Activity Surge

Solana is outperforming as on-chain memecoin trading and prediction-market volume pick back up, prompting the “are the bulls back?” question (Cointelegraph). The clearest example today of selective, narrative-led strength rather than a broad move — the kind of rotation that tends to lead when risk appetite starts to thaw at the edges.

🟢 Cardano Up 13% Into Upgrade; XRP Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Hits 2026 High

ADA is up ~13% into its van Rossem upgrade, a classic “buy the upgrade” move (AMBCrypto), while XRP’s taker buy/sell ratio hit its highest of 2026 as the XRP Ledger nears a million AI-related transactions (AMBCrypto, U.Today). On-chain signals stay mixed, but the demand side is quietly showing up across the majors.

🟡 ESMA Warns Prediction-Market Event Contracts May Fall Under EU Binary-Options Ban

Europe’s securities regulator flagged that prediction-market “event contracts” could be caught by the EU’s existing binary-options ban (The Defiant). With prediction markets a fast-growing on-chain narrative, it’s an early sign the category faces real regulatory friction in Europe even as it booms elsewhere.

🔵 Robinhood Earn Adds 7% USDG Yield as Stablecoin Competition Heats Up

Robinhood is now offering a 7% yield on USDG through its Earn product, an aggressive move as brokers and exchanges fight for stablecoin balances (Bitcoinist). Yields like that are a demand magnet — and a sign the stablecoin land-grab is intensifying even in a fearful market.

🟡 Tesla Beats Deliveries by 74,000 — Then Has Its Worst Day in Nearly a Year

Tesla topped delivery estimates by 74,000 vehicles yet still logged its worst session in almost a year (Nasdaq), while SpaceX finally went public. A jumpy equity tape is part of why crypto’s bounce is being treated with caution rather than celebration into the holiday.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 22 — extreme fear — and yet the tape is bouncing. That gap is the whole story today. Bitcoin’s back near $62.7k, up around 2%, ether’s following, and the reason isn’t hope, it’s flows: spot-ETF demand has turned back up into the weakness, and the P&L ratio has washed out to a 43-month low that’s marked past bottoms. Even a MicroStrategy sale barely registered. I like the texture — but a bounce inside extreme fear is exactly that until sentiment actually lifts and the ETF bid proves it can stick. It’s a thin Fourth-of-July tape, so moves cut both ways, and the reg wire (ESMA on prediction markets, the CFTC on a proposed crypto tax) is a reminder the overhang hasn’t gone anywhere. So it’s a respect-the-bounce day, not a chase-it day: I want follow-through and a sentiment lift before I lean into it. Keep size sensible, and we’ll trade the line together in Discord. No chart today — this one’s straight off the terminal wire — but the full BTC report is in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

The signal we were waiting on has printed. On the 12H, bitcoin has fired the B buy signal, bounced off the 57,755 low up to 61,355, and cleared back above the 58,000–60,000 box — a step further than yesterday, where the B was only potential. I’m leaning bullish while it holds above 60,000: the bull div is still playing out and the oscillator has turned up sharply. The catch is price is now heading straight into the supply that has capped every bounce — the 65,000 order block and the 66,000–67,500 band — so the other read is a rejection there and a slide back toward the box, with a close under 57,755 voiding the signal. Off the chart the tape stayed twitchy: CryptoQuant flagged whale deposits surging to 49,000 BTC as exchange inflows turned bearish, nearly $3bn in BTC options expire today on Deribit with puts still dominant, and bitcoin ETF redemptions hit a tenth straight day as June bled $4.06bn. Around it, BTC dominance is testing key support in the altcoin-season debate, the SEC opened a 60-day review of crypto ETF rules, yield-bearing stablecoin supply fell 15% in its first contraction since 2023, and SharpLink added $16m in ETH. Fear and Greed sits at 21 — fear. Hold the line, or range back down.

Your morning outlook.

🟢 BULLISH

The B buy signal we were watching for has printed, and price has pushed off the 57,755 low up to 61,355 — that’s the confirmation that was missing yesterday. The bull div is still playing out, the oscillator (cyan) has turned up sharply, and price is now holding above the 58,000–60,000 box rather than sitting in it. If this follows through, the next targets are the 65,000 order block, then the 66,000–67,500 resistance band above. For the bullish case to keep building, BTC wants to hold above 60,000 on the close and keep stacking higher lows into that supply.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Momentum has turned and the div is live, but price is now heading straight into resistance, so this could still stall. Floor is the 58,000–60,000 box it just cleared, with 57,755 as the low beneath. Ceiling is the 65,000 OB and the 66,000–67,500 band stacked above it. Until BTC actually reaches and reclaims that supply, this reads as a confirmed bounce working up into resistance rather than a clean breakout. The setup points up, but there’s a wall to get through, so we can potentially expect a range between roughly 58,000 and 65,000 as it works into that zone.

🔴 BEARISH

The other side: the bounce gets price moving, but it runs straight into the 65,000–67,500 supply, and that’s where the last few bounces have been sold. A rejection there without a reclaim would put a move back toward the 60,000 line and the box in play. A 12H close that loses 57,755 would undo the turn and suggest the leg lower is continuing. While that overhead supply holds and price can’t close into it, sellers may keep leaning in on the way up.

📋 SUMMARY

The B signal has printed and the bull div is still playing out — BTC has bounced off 57,755 to 61,355 and cleared back above the 58,000–60,000 box. That’s a step further than yesterday, where the B was only potential. Leaning bullish while it holds above 60,000, with the 65,000 OB and the 66,000–67,500 band as the upside tests. The catch is price is now moving into the supply that’s capped every bounce, so the other read is a rejection there and a slide back toward the box, with a close under 57,755 voiding the signal. It firms up if BTC holds 60k and pushes into the OB; it weakens if that supply rejects it again. We’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — THE TAPE STAYS TWITCHY: $3BN IN OPTIONS EXPIRE AS THE ETF EXODUS HITS TEN STRAIGHT DAYS

The chart printed its B, but the flows around it are still leaning the other way — and that tension is the whole story today. Here’s both threads, straight:

🔹 Options day. Nearly $3 billion in bitcoin options and around $584 million in ether options settle on Deribit today at 08:00 UTC. It’s modest next to last week’s ~$17 billion expiry, but into a thin holiday weekend it’s worth watching. The put/call ratio sits just above 1.0 on BTC and higher near 1.28 on ETH, so protection is still being paid up for even after the bounce. Greeks.live notes puts continue to dominate BTC flow, with over $1 billion in put volume clustered in out-of-the-money strikes between $60,000 and $65,000 — institutions hedging a bearish one-to-two-month view even as spot lifts. Expiries this size can pull price toward max-pain clusters and then release once they clear, so the settlement can either steady the tape or light the fuse for another volatility burst.

🔹 The exodus underneath. US spot bitcoin ETFs extended their redemption streak to a tenth straight day, with BlackRock’s IBIT again leading — roughly $219 million out on July 1 alone, and about $4.06 billion for June, the worst month since launch. CryptoQuant says more than 100,000 BTC have left ETF reserves in 2026, and on-chain it flagged exchange inflows spiking to 49,000 BTC on June 30, with the average deposit size doubling from 1 to 2 BTC — deliberate whale positioning, not retail noise. The one crack of light: ether, HYPE and solana funds drew fresh inflows the same day, a small sign of rotation while bitcoin stays the pressure point.

The patient play: the B is a real tell, but I want it confirmed by price, not by hope. Hold above 60,000 and push into the 65k OB and the bounce has legs; reject at that supply — the same wall the options crowd is fading — and the box comes back, with a close under 57,755 voiding the whole thing. The chart says up, the flows say hedge; until one of them breaks, respect the level and keep the size sensible.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟡 $2.98bn in BTC Options Expire Today as Puts Still Hold the Upper Hand

Nearly $3 billion in bitcoin options and around $584 million in ether options settle on Deribit today at 08:00 UTC — modest next to last week’s ~$17 billion expiry, but worth watching into a thin holiday weekend. Deribit puts the BTC put/call ratio just above 1.0 and ETH’s higher near 1.28, so downside protection is still being paid up for. Greeks.live notes over $1 billion in BTC puts clustered in out-of-the-money strikes between $60,000 and $65,000 — institutions hedging a bearish one-to-two-month view even as spot bounces. Expiries this size can steady the tape or trigger another volatility burst once they clear.

🔴 Whale Deposits Surge to 49,000 BTC as Exchange Inflows Flash a Bearish Warning

CryptoQuant flagged bitcoin exchange inflows spiking to 49,000 BTC on June 30 — a level seen only four other times this year, and one that has tended to precede volatility. More telling than the volume is the composition: average deposit size roughly doubled from 1 to 2 BTC, pointing to deliberate whale and institutional repositioning rather than retail noise. Ethereum saw the same, breaching 1.25 million ETH. The firm calls $60,000 the decisive support; lose it and realised price near $53,000 is the downside. The counterpoint is that much of June’s bleed was macro-driven, so whales may be positioning for the storm rather than causing it.

🔴 Bitcoin ETF Redemptions Hit 10 Straight Days as June Bleeds $4.06bn

US spot bitcoin ETFs extended their redemption streak to a tenth day, with BlackRock’s IBIT again leading the exits — roughly $219m walked out on July 1 alone. June’s total outflow reached about $4.06bn, the worst month since these products launched, and CryptoQuant notes more than 100,000 BTC have left ETF reserves in 2026. The split underneath matters: ether, HYPE and solana funds drew fresh inflows the same day while XRP slipped red — a small sign of rotation while bitcoin stays the pressure point.

🟡 $1.6bn in Longs Wiped as Leverage Gets Flushed Off the Low

The move off the low wasn’t clean. As US jobs data and an AI-sector selloff whipsawed risk, roughly $1.6bn in positions were liquidated — mostly longs — across BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP before bitcoin reclaimed $61,000. It’s a reminder of how much leverage still sits under this tape, and why the macro calendar rather than the chart has been steering into the back half of the week. The silver lining: with a chunk of that leverage flushed, a cleaner base can build if BTC holds the 58,000–60,000 shelf.

🟡 BTC Dominance Tests Key Support — Is an Altcoin Season Finally Near?

Bitcoin’s share of the total market has slipped toward the 58% area and is probing support near 55.6%, the kind of structural drift that usually precedes capital rotating into alts. But confirmation isn’t here yet: the Altcoin Season Index sits well below its threshold, and ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC haven’t broken decisively higher. Analysts caution dominance can bleed for weeks before the index catches up. If BTC holds the 58,000–60,000 shelf while dominance keeps drifting, the read is a selective, narrative-led rally — AI tokens, payment coins and quality Layer-1s — rather than a broad euphoric altseason.

🔵 SEC Opens 60-Day Review of the Rules Governing Crypto ETFs

The SEC has opened a 60-day comment period to reconsider how it regulates “novel” ETFs — a category it explicitly defines to include crypto, prediction-market and complex leveraged products. Formalised on June 30 under Release No. 33-11426, the 27 questions probe whether funds holding non-security assets like bitcoin still qualify as investment companies, and whether first-of-their-kind products need a slower approval track. Chairman Paul Atkins framed it as building a record before any rewrite. Existing spot BTC and ETH ETFs keep trading normally, but new launches — staking and altcoin baskets among them — may face longer waits.

🔴 Yield-Bearing Stablecoin Supply Falls 15% — First Contraction Since 2023

Yield-bearing stablecoin supply shed more than $3.5bn in Q2, snapping nearly three years of growth, per CEX.IO. The drop was led by crypto-native products — Ethena’s sUSDe lost 52% of its supply — while Treasury-backed tokens like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Ondo’s USDY grew. The broader stablecoin market logged its first quarterly contraction since Q3 2023, slipping to $312bn. Analysts read shrinking stablecoin supply, ETF outflows and slower corporate BTC buying as the same signal — demand is cooling, and a supply rebound would be the tell that fresh capital is coming back.

🟢 SharpLink Adds $16m in ETH as Treasury Buyers Keep Stacking

SharpLink picked up roughly $16m of ether as BTC hovered near $61k — a small but steady add that fits the week’s quiet rotation theme, with ether ETFs and treasury buyers leaning in while bitcoin funds bleed. It’s not size that moves the market, but the direction of travel is worth noting: when spot is soft and dominance is drifting, the ETH accumulation stories keep landing, and steady corporate demand is exactly the sort of floor that can matter more once sentiment turns.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 21 — still in fear — while BTC fires the B buy signal, bounces off the 57,755 low to 61,355 and clears back above the 58,000–60,000 box. This is the texture I wanted if a low is going in: the bull div is still playing out and the oscillator has turned up sharply, and today the B actually printed rather than just threatening. But a bounce into resistance isn’t a breakout — price is now heading straight into the 65,000 order block and the 66,000–67,500 band that has sold every bounce so far, so I’m treating this as a confirmed turn that still has to prove it by closing into supply. What’s loud underneath is the flow: CryptoQuant flagged whale deposits surging to 49,000 BTC as exchange inflows turned bearish, nearly $3bn in options expire today with puts still dominant, and ETF redemptions hit a tenth straight day. None of that forces the chart’s hand, but it tells you the bigger money is still hedging. So it’s a hold-the-line day: 60,000 is the level I want defended on closes, the 65k OB is the hurdle above, and 57,755 is the floor that can’t break. Keep size sensible, respect the level, and if it breaks and holds we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

On the 12H, bitcoin has bounced off the 57,755 low back up to 60,825 and is now pressing right into the descending green diagonal — the line it needs to break. I’m leaning bullish on it: RSI has a long way to run before it’s stretched, the bull div is still there, and the candle colour is starting to turn, which can be an early tell that a B buy signal is coming. Print a B and close above the diagonal and the path opens toward the 65,000 order block, then the 67,500 resistance. But this same line has rejected every bounce so far, so the other read is a rejection right here and a slide back toward the 58,000 box, with a close under 57,755 putting the bears back in charge. Off the chart, the macro did the talking: gold surged past $4,000 after a soft US jobs print lifted rate-cut bets and tightened its correlation with bitcoin, while a financial disclosure showed Trump banked $1.4bn from crypto in 2026 even as two-thirds of his memecoin holders sit underwater. Around it, the Bank of Japan hiked to its highest rate since 1995, OpenAI is in talks to hand the US government a 5% stake, Meta Compute sent AI chip stocks tumbling worldwide, and Solana dApps cleared $257M in Q2 revenue. Fear and Greed sits at 19 — fear. Break and hold the line, or range back down.

Your BTC summary for the day.

🟢 BULLISH

Price has bounced off the 57,755 low and pushed back to 60,825, and it’s now right at the descending green diagonal — the line it needs to break. Leaning into it, there’s a fair bit backing a move up: RSI has a long way to run before it’s stretched, the bullish div is still present, and the candle colour is starting to turn, which can be an early tell that a B buy signal is coming. If a B prints and price closes above the diagonal, the path opens toward the 65,000 order block first, then the 67,500 resistance above it. That’s the bullish case: reclaim the line, print the B, head for the OB.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Price is testing the diagonal but hasn’t broken it yet, so this could still stall here. Floor is the 58,000–60,000 box it just bounced from, with the 57,755 low beneath. Ceiling is the diagonal right at price, then the 65,000 OB and the 67,500 resistance above. Until BTC closes above the diagonal, this reads more like a bounce into resistance than a confirmed breakout. RSI and the div point up and the candle’s trying to turn, but the line hasn’t given way, so we can potentially expect a range between roughly 58,000 and 65,000 until it either breaks up or rejects.

🔴 BEARISH

The other side: this diagonal has capped every bounce so far, and price could reject here again. If it turns back down off the line without a close above, the div and the candle turn don’t get confirmed, and a move back toward the 58,000 box comes into play. A 12H close that loses 57,755 would suggest the bounce has failed and the leg lower is continuing. While the diagonal holds as resistance and price can’t close above it, sellers may keep leaning in right here at the line.

📋 SUMMARY

BTC has bounced off 57,755 to 60,825 and is testing the descending diagonal — the decision point. Leaning bullish: RSI has room to run, the div is still there, and the candle colour turning hints a B buy signal may be coming, which would open the path up to the 65,000 OB and then the 67,500 resistance. But the diagonal has rejected every bounce so far, so the other read is a rejection right here and a slide back toward the 58,000 box, with a close under 57,755 putting the bearish case back in play. It comes down to this line — break and hold above with a B print and we head for the OB; reject and we range back down. We’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

GUESS WHO’S BACK

🔭 SPECIAL — THE MACRO IS DOING THE TALKING: GOLD CLEARS $4,000 AND TRUMP’S $1.4BN CRYPTO HAUL LANDS ON THE SAME MORNING

Two stories broke away from the chart today, and together they frame where this market’s head is at. Here’s both, straight:

🔹 Soft jobs, hard rally in gold. Gold jumped more than 2% into the $4,071–$4,083 range after ADP’s June report showed just 98,000 private-sector jobs added against the roughly 110,000 expected — and a clear step down from May’s 122,000. When hiring slows, traders start pricing the Fed cutting sooner, and lower rates (or just the expectation of them) make non-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin more attractive as the dollar softens. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added fuel by flagging an easing in inflation expectations, and falling oil reinforced the same story. The part that matters for us: gold and bitcoin have been moving increasingly in step around US labour data — May’s strong payrolls knocked both lower, and this softer miss tilts the other way. The official nonfarm payroll report, a couple of days out, is the real test: confirm the weakness and both could get another leg; surprise to the upside and the move stalls.

🔹 The president’s crypto ledger. A financial disclosure reported by the Wall Street Journal showed Trump earned roughly $1.4 billion from his family’s crypto ventures over the past year, with about $800 million of that from World Liberty Financial alone. The contrast with the crowd is stark: Nansen data across 1.48 million wallets shows roughly two-thirds of his memecoin holders are underwater, and around 85% of secondary-market WLFI buyers are sitting at a loss, with the memecoin down about 97% from a ~$15bn peak to roughly $400 million. It’s not just optics — World Liberty launched a dollar-pegged stablecoin shortly before Trump signed the GENIUS Act, and ethics provisions barring officials from profiting off what they oversee are now a sticking point for the Senate crypto bill that’s passed the House but still needs 60 votes.

The patient play: don’t let the macro pull you off the level. The line is still the line — bounce off 57,755, press the diagonal, and I want a B print with a close above before trusting the upside toward the 65k OB; reject here and the 58k box comes back, with a close under 57,755 handing it back to the bears. Zoom out and the backdrop is the same one we’ve had all year — softer data feeding rate-cut hopes, big money and big names circling the space, and regulation still the wild card. Respect the levels, keep the long game in view.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟡 Gold Surges Past $4,000 on Soft US Jobs Data as the Bitcoin Correlation Strengthens

Gold jumped more than 2% into the $4,071–$4,083 range after ADP’s June report showed just 98,000 private-sector jobs added — well below the ~110,000 expected and down from May’s 122,000. Softer hiring lifts the odds of Fed cuts, which makes non-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin more attractive as the dollar weakens; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noting easing inflation expectations and falling oil reinforced it. Both assets have shown an increasingly correlated response to US labour data, and the official nonfarm payroll report a couple of days out is the next big test.

🔴 Trump Banked $1.4bn From Crypto in 2026 as Two-Thirds of Memecoin Holders Sit Underwater

A financial disclosure reported by the Wall Street Journal shows President Trump earned roughly $1.4 billion from his family’s crypto ventures last year, with about $800 million from World Liberty Financial alone — even as most retail buyers are nursing losses. Per Nansen data across 1.48 million wallets, roughly two-thirds of Trump’s memecoin holders are underwater and around 85% of secondary-market WLFI buyers are at a loss, with the memecoin down about 97% from a ~$15bn peak to ~$400 million. Ethics provisions barring officials from profiting off what they oversee are now a sticking point for the Senate crypto bill.

🟡 Bank of Japan Raises Rates to Highest Since 1995 as a Weak Yen Fans Inflation

The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1% — the highest since September 1995 — in a 7–1 vote, citing rising energy costs and a persistently weak yen. Coming after December’s hike to 0.75%, it reads as gradual tightening rather than a pivot, with officials eyeing a neutral rate near 2% longer term. Past BOJ hikes since 2024 had correlated with BTC declines averaging roughly 27% as the carry trade unwound; this time bitcoin diverged, helped by the BOJ pausing further bond-purchase reductions.

🔴 Meta Compute Launch Sends AI Chip Stocks Tumbling Worldwide

Meta’s plan to sell surplus computing power hit chip stocks hard: the new Meta Compute unit will lease idle data-centre capacity to outside clients, flipping years of assumed AI-compute scarcity into a supply warning. Micron fell more than 10% on July 1, Intel and AMD lost 6.9% and 10.8%, and neoclouds CoreWeave and Nebius dropped 14% and 17% on fears Meta undercuts their pricing. The sell-off spread to Asia, where Samsung and SK Hynix slid and the KOSPI triggered a trading halt.

🟢 BTC Bounces 4.7% Off the Low as Retail FOMO Splits From the Whales

Bitcoin bounced from a local low near $57,800 to about $60,500 — a 4.7% move — but the tape underneath is split: over the past two weeks the largest wallets (100–10k BTC) have distributed while the smallest have accumulated. Sentiment recently hit a 21-month low even as retail keeps buying, and Binance saw roughly $1.7bn in stablecoin outflows as BTC retested $60k. Bulls want large holders to step back in around this level; without that, rising retail FOMO into whale distribution keeps the door open to a retest lower.

🔵 OpenAI to Hand the US Government a 5% Stake, FT Reports

OpenAI is in discussions to give a stake of up to 5% to the US government, the Financial Times reports, channelling equity into a proposed “Public Wealth Fund” meant to distribute the economic benefits of AI to ordinary Americans. With OpenAI valued near $852 billion, even 1% would be worth billions; 5% lands around $42.6 billion. The talks between Sam Altman and Trump-administration officials centre on a voluntary donation rather than a mandate, and nothing is finalised — but if it lands, it could set a precedent for how AI wealth is shared.

🟢 Solana dApps Generated $257M in Q2 Revenue — Ninth Straight Quarter Leading Fees

Solana dApps produced a combined $257 million in revenue in Q2 2026, the ninth consecutive quarter the chain has led major Layer 1 and Layer 2 networks in fee-generating activity. Revenue has become a cleaner read than token price on whether a chain is producing real economic activity, and the figure underscores active DEX trading, token launches, routing and high-frequency usage. The caveat: much of that flow is tied to memecoin and high-velocity trading, so it can be cyclical if speculative appetite dries up.

🔵 Tom Lee Says BitMine Is Built to Survive a Crypto Winter Despite ETH’s Slump

Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee says the market is too focused on ETH’s short-term price action, arguing his firm is built to withstand a prolonged downturn. BitMine holds roughly $600 million in cash, with about 80% of its Ethereum staked and generating more than $250 million a year in rewards. Rather than simply hoarding ETH, Lee says BitMine is investing across the ecosystem — from ETH Labs to partnerships with SharpLink and core developers — and that “if crypto winter comes, we can make it to spring.”

🟡 Saylor Doubles Down on $100 STRC Target Even With the Stock $13 Off

Michael Saylor reiterated that Strategy’s objective is for its STRC preferred stock to trade between $99 and $100, even though STRC sits near $87.46 — about $13 short of that par goal after a record low on June 26. To defend the target, Strategy raised STRC’s dividend by 50 basis points to 12%, effective July 1. STRC is a variable-rate preferred designed to trade near a $100 face value, and whether it climbs back to par depends largely on bitcoin’s trajectory, still the primary driver of Strategy’s capital structure.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 19 — still in fear — while BTC bounces off the 57,755 low to 60,825 and presses the descending diagonal. The texture underneath is the one I want to see if this is going to turn: RSI has room to run, the bull div is still there, and the candle colour is starting to turn, which can be an early tell that a B buy signal is coming. But a bounce into resistance isn’t a breakout — this same diagonal has rejected every bounce so far, and until price closes above it with a B print I’m treating it as a test, not a turn. What’s louder today is the macro around the price: gold cleared $4,000 as soft US jobs data lifted rate-cut bets and tightened its correlation with bitcoin, and a disclosure showed Trump made $1.4bn from crypto while most of his memecoin holders sit underwater. None of that forces the chart’s hand, but it tells you where the ground is shifting. So it’s a watch-and-react day: the diagonal and the 65k OB are the hurdles above, the 58,000 box and 57,755 low are the floor that can’t break, and I want a break-and-hold up with closes before trusting it. Keep size sensible, respect the line, and if it breaks and holds we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Same box, still holding. On the 8H, bitcoin is leaning on the 58,000–60,000 support zone at 59,212, and the tells underneath are worth a second look: an anchored VWAP is building up from the 58,042 low, a bull div is forming on the oscillator, and the cashflow wave is trying to curl back up. They’re signs pointing up, not a confirmed turn — the candles down here are still heavy and price hasn’t actually left the zone, with the descending green diagonal and the 65,000 supply waiting above. The bigger story today is off the chart: it’s MiCA deadline day, and only 244 firms — about 12% of those operating in the bloc — are cleared to keep serving the EU, with Binance shut out and rivals like Coinbase, OKX and Bitpanda pouncing on the stranded users. Wall Street picked the same morning to plant its flag in stablecoins: AptosLabs unveiled “Open USD” with Mastercard, Visa, Stripe and BlackRock behind it, and Circle stock fell 16% on the news. Under the price the tape stayed heavy — spot bitcoin ETFs just closed their worst month ever with $4.5bn of outflows — while Solana wallets hit a 4.51M all-time high and the XRP Ledger opened lending to a validator vote. Fear and Greed sits at 11 — deep fear. A potential base, not yet a turn — hold this level, break up, don’t lose it.

Your BTC outlook today

🟢 BULLISH

On the 8H, price is holding the support box around 58,000–60,000 at 59,212, with the anchored VWAP running up from the 58,04x low as the reference buyers can lean on. There’s a bull div building on the oscillator and the cashflow wave looks to be trying to turn back up, which can point to flow steadying down here. If it holds and reclaims 60,000, the first job would be a push back toward the 65,000 area supply. But it’s early — signs pointing up, not a confirmed turn, and price still has to actually break out of this box to back them.

🟡 NEUTRAL

The flow and momentum may be steadying, but price hasn’t left the support box, so this could just as easily stay rangebound. Floor is the 58,000–60,000 zone with the VWAP underneath from the low. Ceiling is the descending green diagonal trend coming down into price, then the 65,000 supply and the stacked zones above (73–74k, 77–78k). Until BTC breaks up and holds away from here, this reads more like price holding support than turning. So we can potentially expect a range between roughly 58,000 and 65,000 while it resolves.

🔴 BEARISH

The candles down here still look heavy and price hasn’t left the support area, so the bearish case is far from off the table. The green diagonal trend is coming in from above as the next resistance, with the 65k supply and MAs beyond that. An 8H close that loses the 58,000 box would suggest support has failed and the leg lower is continuing, opening room below. While price stays under the diagonal and can’t push out of this zone, sellers may keep the upper hand, and any bounce into the resistance above could be where they lean back in.

📋 SUMMARY

On the 8H, BTC is holding the 58,000–60,000 support box at 59,212. The bullish signs are there underneath — anchored VWAP from the low, a bull div and the cashflow wave trying to turn up — but the candles still look heavy and price hasn’t left the support area yet, with the descending diagonal and the 65k supply waiting above. It firms up if BTC breaks up and holds away from this zone; it weakens on an 8H close back under 58,000. Until then we can potentially expect a range — need to hold this level and break up, not lose it. We’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — DEADLINE DAY: THE MAP OF WHO CAN TOUCH EUROPEAN CRYPTO JUST GOT REDRAWN — AND WALL STREET WANTS THE STABLECOIN

Two stories broke on the same morning, and together they say more about where this market is heading than the box does. Here’s both, straight:

🔹 Europe drew a hard line. As of today, the EU’s MiCA regime is fully in force, and only 244 digital-asset groups — roughly 12% of the firms that were operating in the bloc — are authorised to keep serving European customers, per markets watchdog ESMA. Around 1,738 firms without a bloc-wide licence now have to cease operations or wind down in an orderly manner. Coinbase, Kraken and OKX are through; Binance, the biggest exchange in the world, is the headline name that didn’t make it and has already told EU users it’s stopping service. The scramble is on for the stranded customers: Coinbase is dangling a 5% transfer bonus for funds moved before July 13, and OKX and Bitpanda say smaller unlicensed venues are lining up to hand over their clients, assets and even sponsorship deals. The read for traders: regulation just became a moat. The licensed survivors get bigger and the map of who can legally touch European crypto got a lot shorter overnight.

🔹 Wall Street planted its flag in stablecoins. On the same morning, AptosLabs launched Open USD — a dollar stablecoin built by a consortium called Open Standard with Mastercard, Visa, Stripe and BlackRock all involved. The pitch is a shared-governance model that splits reserve earnings among partners instead of funnelling them to one issuer, a direct challenge to how USDC and USDT are run today. Stripe has already committed to Open USD as its default stablecoin for business transactions — the kind of instant distribution most new entrants never get. Circle’s stock fell 16% on the reveal, which tells you the market is taking it seriously, even if plenty of analysts think the sell-off is overblown given USDC’s head start.

The patient play: don’t let the headlines pull you off the level. The box is still the box — hold 58,000, break up and hold toward the 65k supply with closes, and the base-building case strengthens; lose 58,000 on an 8H close and the leg lower continues. But zoom out and the structure keeps building the same way it has all year — tighter rules, bigger balance sheets, real payments rails. Respect the levels, and keep the long game in view.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🔴 Deadline Day — MiCA Bites as Just 244 Crypto Firms Are Cleared to Serve the EU

From today the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regime is fully in force, and only 244 digital-asset groups — about 12% of those operating in the bloc — are authorised to keep serving European customers, per markets watchdog ESMA. Around 1,738 firms without a bloc-wide licence must now cease operations or wind down. Coinbase, Kraken and OKX are cleared; Binance is the highest-profile name that failed to get regulated before the deadline and has told EU users it will stop serving them. Rivals are already circling the stranded customers.

🔴 UK Investors Sue Binance and CZ for $200M Over Crypto Derivatives

Almost 1,700 UK investors are reportedly suing Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao for £150 million ($200 million), alleging the exchange sold crypto derivatives without regulatory approval. Law firm KP Law says leverage tokens, futures and options breached the Financial Services and Markets Act after the FCA banned such products for retail in January 2021, with “no effective barrier” stopping UK access. Binance says it will defend the claims — the same week it failed to secure a MiCA licence before today’s EU deadline.

🟢 Wall Street’s Stablecoin — AptosLabs Unveils “Open USD” with Mastercard, Visa, Stripe and BlackRock

AptosLabs launched Open USD, a dollar stablecoin built by a consortium called Open Standard with Mastercard, Visa, Stripe and BlackRock involved. The shared-governance model splits reserve earnings among partners rather than a single issuer — a direct shot at how USDC and USDT are run. Stripe has already committed to Open USD as its default stablecoin for business transactions, an instant distribution edge. If it delivers, it drags the biggest names in finance onto the same rails crypto has been building for years.

🔴 Circle Shares Sink 16% After Open USD Reveal — Analysts Call Fears “Overblown”

Circle stock fell 16% after the Open USD consortium was unveiled, with investors worried a Mastercard-Visa-Stripe-BlackRock stablecoin could threaten USDC’s enterprise turf. Several analysts called the sell-off overblown, pointing to USDC’s regulatory head start, compliance and existing distribution across exchanges and payments partners. Still, it shows how fast the market re-prices incumbents when the biggest names in finance step onto the same stablecoin rails.

🔴 Spot Bitcoin ETFs Post Worst Month Since Launch, Bleeding $4.5B in June

US spot bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $4.5 billion in net outflows in June — their largest monthly withdrawal since the products launched in January 2024, capping a nine-day losing streak into month-end. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the bulk at $3.55 billion. Analysts pin it on a broad macro rotation rather than broken fundamentals: elevated rates, geopolitical nerves and capital rotating into the SpaceX IPO. The record beats February 2025’s $3.48 billion by 29%.

🟢 Solana Wallets Hit 4.5M All-Time High as SOL Eyes the $82 Wall

Solana’s active wallets climbed to an all-time high near 4.51 million, the network’s busiest since February, driven by tokenised equities (xStocks) and a DeFi resurgence. SOL jumped about 7.5% to $76 and is close to printing its first green monthly candle after nine red months. The $78–$82 resistance zone is the market’s biggest test after several rejected rallies.

🟡 Retail Piles Into HYPE Even as a Whale Dumps $5.18M

Hyperliquid held $60 and bounced toward $67 before easing to about $65, up 4.6% on the day, even as a whale offloaded 77,602 HYPE worth $5.18 million and rotated $792k into ETH. Spot netflow stayed negative, but retail traders kept accumulating — the kind of split tape where the crowd, not the whales, is setting the pace for now.

🔵 XRP Ledger Puts Lending to a Vote — XLS-65 and XLS-66 Go Live

The XLS-65 (Single Asset Vaults) and XLS-66 (Lending Protocol) amendments are now open for validator voting, sitting near 20% (7 of 35) and needing 80% support held for 14 days to activate. Credit approval and underwriting stay off-chain; the ledger would handle settlement, loan servicing and interest accrual. It nudges XRPL beyond payments toward institutional credit infrastructure — a signal worth watching, not a done deal.

🟢 Iran Oil Exports Surge as US Blockade Ends and Interim Peace Deal Holds

Iran’s chief negotiator says crude exports have surged after an earlier US blockade that had briefly cut sales to zero, with an interim peace deal and sanction waivers pointing to de-escalation. Officials expect Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by July 31. Easing Middle East tension takes one macro risk off the table for now — a modest tailwind for risk assets, crypto included.

🟡 $1,000 in the S&P Now Beats the Same 2021 Bet on Bitcoin

A $1,000 stake in the S&P 500 back in July 2021 has grown to roughly $1,736 — edging out the $1,676 the same bet in bitcoin would be worth today, with BTC near $58,800 and the index at 7,499. Bitcoin took the far wilder ride, crashing about 75% into the 2022 winter before recovering, while stocks avoided that kind of drawdown. Over longer horizons BTC still trounces the index, but this stretch is a reminder that volatility cuts both ways.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 11 — deep fear — while BTC leans on the 58,000–60,000 box at 59,212. The texture underneath is the same story I’ve been flagging all week: an anchored VWAP building from the 58,042 low, a bull div forming, and the cashflow wave trying to curl back up. Those are real tells, but they’re tells pointing up, not a confirmed turn — price still hasn’t left the zone. What’s louder today is the structure changing around the price: MiCA deadline day just shrank the field of who can legally serve the EU to 244 firms, Wall Street walked into stablecoins with Open USD, and spot ETFs closed their worst month ever with $4.5bn out the door. None of that forces the chart’s hand, but it tells you where the ground is shifting. So it’s a watch-and-react day: the 58,000–60,000 box is the floor that can’t break, the descending diagonal and the 65k supply are the hurdles above, and I want a break-and-hold up with closes before trusting it. Keep size sensible, respect the level, and if the base builds we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Same box, a few better tells. On the 12H, bitcoin is holding the green support zone around 58,000–59,500 at 59,543, and the stuff building underneath is worth a second look: the cashflow wave is turning back up, RSI is facing off the lows, and an anchored VWAP has started from the 58,042 low, giving buyers something to lean on. They’re signs pointing up, not a confirmed turn — the candles down here are still heavy and price hasn’t actually left the zone, with the descending diagonal trend and the 65,000–67,000 supply waiting above. The macro tape is doing most of the steering: the Japanese yen sank to a 40-year low and the firmer dollar is keeping BTC pinned under $60,000, while the Magnificent Seven shed $2.3tn this month as Wall Street rotated into chipmakers. Underneath the price, conviction keeps showing up — Bitmine lifted its ether treasury to 5.7M and joined the Russell 1000, Strategy is teasing another buy even with mNAV under 1, and Pavel Durov says he’s never sold a bitcoin and sees $1M one day. On the rules front, the EU issued 244 MiCA licences as the July 1 deadline lands, JPMorgan is pushing Congress for tougher safeguards, and the UK softened its incoming crypto rulebook. Fear and Greed sits at 15 — still fear. A potential base, not yet a turn — hold this level, break up, don’t lose it.

Your morning (heavy) summary.

🟢 BULLISH

On the 12H, price is holding the green support box around 58,000–59,500 at 59,543, and there are a few things building underneath for the bulls. The cashflow wave (red) looks to be turning back up, which can point to money starting to flow in rather than out. RSI is facing up off the lows, and the anchored VWAP (light blue) has started from the 58,042 low, so there’s a reference buyers can lean on if it holds. If those line up, a reclaim and push toward the 65,000–67,000 supply block would be the first job. But it’s early — these are signs pointing up, not a confirmed turn, and price still has to actually leave this support area to back them.

🟡 NEUTRAL

The flow and momentum signals may be steadying, but price hasn’t left the support box yet, so this could just as easily stay rangebound. Floor is the 58,000–59,500 zone price is sitting on, with the VWAP from 58,042 underneath. Ceiling is the descending diagonal trend coming down into price from above, then the 65,000–67,000 supply. Until BTC breaks up and holds away from this level, this reads more like price holding support than turning. The cashflow wave and RSI hint the downside may be slowing, but the diagonal is bearing down, so we can potentially expect a range between roughly 58,000 and 65,000 while it resolves.

🔴 BEARISH

The candles down here still look heavy and price hasn’t left the support area, so the bearish case is far from off the table. The descending diagonal trend is coming in from above as the next resistance, and the 65–67k supply with the MAs sit above that. A 12H close that loses the 58,000 box would suggest the support has failed and the move lower is continuing, opening room below. While price stays under the diagonal and can’t push out of this zone, sellers may keep the upper hand, and any bounce into the resistance above could be where they lean back in.

📋 SUMMARY

On the 12H, BTC is holding the 58,000–59,500 support box at 59,543. The bullish signs are building underneath — the cashflow wave turning up suggests money may be flowing in, RSI is facing up, and the anchored VWAP has started from the 58,042 low. But the candles still look heavy and price hasn’t actually left the support area yet, with the descending diagonal trend and the 65–67k supply waiting above. It firms up if BTC breaks up and holds away from this zone; it weakens on a 12H close back under 58,000. Until then we can potentially expect a range — need to hold this level and break up, not lose it. We’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

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WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — THE DOLLAR LEASH: WHY THE YEN AND THE MAG 7 MATTER MORE THAN THE CHART TODAY

The box is the same box it’s been all week, so the thing actually moving the leash is the macro tape — and today it pulled both ways at once. Here’s both sides, straight:

🔹 Why it’s weighing on price. The Japanese yen just sank to a 40-year low against the dollar, and a stronger dollar tightens financial conditions across every risk asset — bitcoin included, which is why it’s pinned back under $60,000. At the same time the Magnificent Seven shed roughly $2.3 trillion this month as money rotated out of the megacap leaders, a reminder that when the AI trade wobbles, the same liquidity that lifts crypto drains out of it. Add 10-year yields still elevated and you have a backdrop where BTC trades less like a hedge against chaos and more like a barometer of financial stress.

🔹 Why the bid underneath is real. Strip out the macro and the conviction tape is quietly constructive. Bitmine added 27,000+ ETH to push its treasury to 5.7M and earned a Russell 1000 seat; Strategy is teasing another bitcoin buy even with enterprise mNAV under 1; and Pavel Durov went public saying he’s never sold a bitcoin and expects $1M one day. On the chart, the cashflow wave is curling up, RSI is lifting, and an anchored VWAP is building from the 58,042 low. None of that forces price higher on its own — but it’s the kind of patient demand that soaks up supply while the macro storm passes.

The patient play: let the box prove itself against the dollar tape. Hold 58,000 and break up and hold toward the 65–67k supply with closes, and the base-building case strengthens; lose 58,000 on a 12H close and the move lower continues. Respect the levels, not the narrative.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🔴 Yen Hits a 40-Year Low as Dollar Strength Pins BTC Below $60,000

The Japanese yen sank to a 40-year low against the dollar, and the firmer greenback is keeping bitcoin capped under $60,000. A stronger dollar tightens financial conditions across risk assets, and traders are watching for signs Tokyo could step in to defend the currency. For crypto it’s another reminder that the FX and rates tape, not the on-chain story, is setting the leash right now.

🟢 Bitmine Lifts Ether Holdings to 5.7M as It Joins the Russell 1000

Bitmine Immersion Technologies added more than 27,000 ETH, lifting its treasury toward 5.7 million ether, and earned a place in the Russell 1000 in the latest reconstitution. The raise lands with ETH heavy near $1,600 — another corporate balance sheet leaning into ether weakness even as the spot ETF tape keeps bleeding. Conviction buying against a soft market is becoming a theme.

🟡 Strategy Teases Another Bitcoin Buy as Enterprise mNAV Sits Under 1

Michael Saylor’s Strategy is signalling another bitcoin purchase to add to its already-vast stack — the firm’s familiar accumulate-through-anything playbook. The teaser lands at a delicate moment: enterprise mNAV recently dipped below 1, putting the company’s valuation under the worth of the BTC it holds. The market will watch whether conviction or the discount wins out.

🔴 Magnificent Seven Sheds $2.3tn as Wall Street Rotates Into Chipmakers

The Magnificent Seven shed roughly $2.3 trillion in value this month as investors rotated out of the megacap leaders and into chipmakers seen as the direct beneficiaries of hyperscaler AI spending. The unwind underlines how the same liquidity and risk-appetite forces dragging on big tech also set the tone for crypto — when the AI trade wobbles, bitcoin tends to feel it.

🔵 EU Issues 244 MiCA Licences as the July 1 Deadline Lands — Germany and France Lead

European regulators have granted 244 crypto-asset service provider authorisations under MiCA, with Germany (57) and France out in front. But with the deadline days away, some 83% of previously registered firms still haven’t secured authorisation — setting up a messy scramble across the bloc as the regime goes fully live and rivals jockey for the cleared firms’ users.

🔵 JPMorgan Urges Strong Safeguards as Congress Weighs Crypto Market-Structure Rules

JPMorgan and the US arms of other major banks are pushing Congress to bake firmer safeguards into the market-structure framework, warning of consumer and financial-stability risks as lawmakers shape how digital assets get supervised. With a Senate vote looming, the big-bank lobby is now a live voice in how the rulebook gets written.

🟢 Pavel Durov Says He’s Never Sold a Bitcoin and Sees $1 Million One Day

The Telegram founder says he has never sold a bitcoin and expects it to reach $1 million eventually, framing it as a long-horizon conviction hold rather than a trade. It’s a high-profile founder doubling down on BTC as a store of value even with price pinned under $60,000 — the kind of long-term framing that cuts against this week’s fear-driven tape.

🟢 Chainlink Adds 6,100 Wallets in Two Days — Strongest Growth Burst of 2026

Chainlink’s network added more than 6,100 new wallet addresses in two days, its fastest pace of growth this year. Wallet growth points to genuine usage rather than price, and Chainlink’s deepening role across oracle infrastructure and tokenisation rails is the kind of build-out that tends to matter more in the next leg than this week’s tape.

🔵 Polygon Says It Processed $180 Billion in Stablecoin Volume in May

Polygon reported roughly $180 billion in stablecoin transfer volume across May, leaning on cheap, fast settlement to argue its case as a payments network. Raw throughput isn’t the whole picture — a chunk is bot and arbitrage flow — but it underscores how stablecoins have quietly become one of crypto’s clearest real-world use cases.

🔵 UK Regulator Waters Down Landmark Crypto Rules After Industry Pushback

Britain’s financial regulator has eased capital and disclosure requirements in its incoming digital-assets regime after firms complained the original draft was too onerous. A softer landing for industry, but a reminder that the shape of the UK’s rulebook is still being negotiated in real time, with consumer-protection trade-offs in the mix.

🔵 David Schwartz: XRP Ledger Front-Running Risk Is Real but Overstated

Ripple CTO David Schwartz addressed concerns about sandwich-style attacks on the XRP Ledger, calling the front-running risk real but overstated and pointing to design features that limit how much can be extracted. A measured take on a worry that crops up whenever decentralised trading systems come under scrutiny.

🔵 Cardano Foundation Urges SPOs to Vote Rather Than Auto-Abstain on Governance

The Cardano Foundation is pressing stake-pool operators to cast active votes instead of defaulting to auto-abstain, warning that passive participation weakens on-chain governance as the network moves deeper into its self-rule era. A nudge that healthy decentralised governance needs turnout, not just code.

🟡 Smart Money Is Rotating From Nvidia Into Another AI Chip Name

Positioning data suggest larger players are trimming Nvidia and rotating into a rival AI chip stock seen as the next leg of the buildout. It’s intra-sector rotation that reads as the AI trade maturing rather than ending — and crypto, increasingly correlated to the same risk appetite, tends to take its cue from how that trade behaves.

🔵 EU Sets Up Three Months of Talks With China Over €360bn Trade Deficit

Brussels and Beijing agreed to a three-month window of talks to try to rebalance a €360 billion trade deficit and steady a fraught relationship after weeks of tariff threats. A calmer macro backdrop helps risk appetite at the margin; a breakdown would be one more geopolitical weight on an already cautious tape.

🔵 Private Equity Investors Turn to Debt-Like Deals in the Downturn

Backers of buyout funds agreed roughly $90bn of alternative, debt-like transactions last year, up from $50bn in 2024, as investors reach for yield and liquidity in a slower environment. It’s a sign of how far the hunt for returns has moved into structured credit — the same risk-off plumbing that keeps liquidity tight for crypto.

🟡 PUMP Stalls Despite a 30% Volume Surge as Whales Decide the Next Move

PUMP pushed a 30% jump in volume but couldn’t translate it into price, stalling as whales hold the key to whether the rally restarts. It’s a clean example of the current low-cap tape: liquidity shows up in bursts, but without follow-through from the big wallets, the moves fizzle as fast as they spark.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 15 — still fear — while BTC leans on the 58,000–59,500 box at 59,543. What’s a little different today is the texture underneath: the cashflow wave is turning back up, RSI is facing off the lows, and an anchored VWAP is building from the 58,042 low. Those are real tells, but they’re tells pointing up, not a confirmed turn — price still hasn’t left the zone. The macro is doing the heavy lifting against it: the yen at a 40-year low and a firm dollar are capping risk, and the Mag 7 just shed $2.3tn as money rotated out of big tech. But the conviction tape the other way is also real — Bitmine pushing its ETH treasury to 5.7M, Strategy teasing another buy with mNAV under 1, and Durov publicly holding for $1M. So it’s a watch-and-react day: the 58,000–59,500 box is the floor that can’t break, the descending diagonal and the 65–67k supply are the hurdles above, and I want a break-and-hold up with closes before trusting it. Keep size sensible, respect the level, and if the base builds we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Same box, slightly better tells. Bitcoin is sitting on the 58,000–60,000 range box at 59,770, still under the broader downtrend, but now with a bullish divergence and a blue dot printing on the oscillator — potential signs momentum is steadying down here. The on-chain tape underneath it is the part worth reading twice: short-term holders sent around 50,000 BTC to exchanges over 24 hours (the largest since June 4), yet long-term holders moved a record 181,000 BTC into accumulation addresses — the patient money buying exactly what the newer money is panic-selling. That hand-off is how bases tend to begin, but it doesn’t make it a turn. Spot ETFs bled a 7th straight day with IBIT shedding $445M, the Coinbase premium has been negative for 40 days straight, and Strategy slipped below the value of its own bitcoin as mNAV fell under 1. The wall above is heavy — the Quantum Reactor, the 64,200 POC and the 50/100/200 day MAs all stacked overhead — so even a bounce has work to do. Reclaim 60,000 and there’s a case toward the POC; lose 58,000 on a 4H close and the bearish continuation comes back. Fear and Greed sits at 12 — deep fear. A potential base, not yet a turn — watch the box and keep size sensible.

Your daily BTC outlook.

🟢 BULLISH

Price is holding the lower range box around 58,000–60,000 at 59,770, with a bullish div printed on the oscillator and the blue dot showing as a potential bullish sign. For that to mean anything, bulls need to defend this level and push up — a reclaim back above 60,000 and then a daily-style grind toward the Money Flow POC at ~64,200. The issue is the wall above: the Quantum Reactor (red curve) is sloping down into the 64–65k area, the POC sits right at 64,200, and the 50/100/200 day MAs are all stacked overhead from roughly 67k upward. So even if the div plays out, there’s heavy resistance to work through, and it would need closes back above 60k to start firming.

🟡 NEUTRAL

The bull div and blue dot suggest momentum may be stabilising down here, but nothing’s reclaimed, so this could just as easily stay rangebound. Floor is the 58,000–60,000 box price is resting on. Ceiling is the Quantum Reactor and POC around 64,200, with the MAs above that. Until BTC reclaims 60k and starts building toward the POC, this reads more like price holding a key level than turning up. The oscillator may be hinting sellers are short on fuel, but the structure overhead is heavy, so we can potentially expect a range between roughly 58,000 and 64,000 while it decides which way to resolve.

🔴 BEARISH

The key level is this 58,000–60,000 box — the one that can’t be lost if the bullish case is to hold. A 4H close that loses 58,000 would suggest the div has failed and the move lower is continuing, opening room below the range. While price stays under the Quantum Reactor, the POC and the MAs, sellers may keep the upper hand, and any bounce into that 64k+ supply could be where they re-engage. The div and blue dot are potential signs, not confirmation, so this side stays in play until the level is defended and reclaimed.

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📋 SUMMARY

BTC is sitting on the 58,000–60,000 box at 59,770 with a bull div and a blue dot printing on the oscillator — potential signs that momentum is steadying, but not confirmation. This is the key level: hold it and reclaim 60,000 and there’s a case for a push toward the Money Flow POC at ~64,200; lose it on a 4H close under 58,000 and the bearish continuation comes back into play. The resistance above is heavy — the Quantum Reactor, the POC and the 50/100/200 day MAs are all stacked overhead — so even a bounce has plenty to work through. Until then we can potentially expect a range. Need to break up and hold, not lose this level — we’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — THE HAND-OFF: CAPITULATION SELLING INTO RECORD CONVICTION BUYING

The price is the same box it’s been all week, so the story today is the flow underneath it. The two on-chain reads point in opposite directions at the same time — and that’s the point. Here’s both sides, straight:

🔹 Why it’s worth noting. Long-term holders just moved a record 181,000 BTC into accumulation addresses on June 26 — the highest ever, past the 94,700 BTC peak of February 2022. They’re buying directly into the panic: short-term holders sent around 50,000 BTC to exchanges over the same window, the most since June 4, as the market value of their positions fell to the lowest since October 2024. Capitulation from weak hands met by record buying from strong hands, while a bull div and blue dot print on the chart and Samson Mow calls the bottom in. That hand-off is the texture you tend to see near cycle lows.

🔹 Why patience still wins. A hand-off is not a reclaim. The Coinbase premium has been negative for 40 straight days — professional desks are still net sellers — spot ETFs bled a 7th day with IBIT alone shedding $445M, and Strategy now trades below the value of its own bitcoin with mNAV under 1. The macro tape isn’t helping either: 10-year yields near 4.4% and a hawkish Fed keep crypto on a short leash. Record accumulation can soak up supply, but it doesn’t force price up on its own.

The patient play: let the box prove itself. Hold 58,000 and reclaim 60,000, then grind toward the 64,200 POC with closes, and the base-building case strengthens; lose 58,000 on a 4H close and the bearish continuation comes straight back. Respect the levels, not the narrative.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 Long-Term Holders Stack a Record 181,000 BTC as Short-Term Holders Capitulate

Long-term holders moved a record 181,000 BTC into accumulation addresses on June 26 — the highest on record, eclipsing the 94,700 BTC peak from February 2022. The patient cohort is buying directly into the weakness, exactly the kind of conviction print that shows up near cycle lows. It doesn’t time the bottom to the day, but record accumulation while price holds a key level is the sort of base-building signal worth respecting.

🔴 Short-Term Holders Send 50,000 BTC to Exchanges — Largest Inflow Since June 4

Around 50,000 BTC in loss-making short-term-holder positions moved to exchanges over 24 hours, the biggest since June 4, with roughly 9,500 BTC flowing into Binance — its largest inflow since June 3. CryptoQuant data show the market value of short-term-holder positions fell to $237.7B, the lowest since October 2024. It’s the kind of stop-loss pressure that clusters near capitulation — painful now, but the sort of flush that has marked lows before.

🔴 Spot BTC ETFs Bleed a 7th Straight Day — IBIT Sheds $445M

US spot bitcoin ETFs posted a seventh consecutive day of net outflows, shedding a combined $445 million on June 26 with almost the entire pull from BlackRock’s IBIT — one of its largest single-day exits since launch. Ether ETFs bled a seventh day too. With ETF trading resuming today after Friday’s expiry, whether the box holds leans heavily on whether those redemptions finally cool.

🔴 Strategy Slips Below the Value of Its Own Bitcoin as mNAV Dips Under 1

For years the market valued Strategy well above its bitcoin stack, giving Michael Saylor’s firm room to raise capital at will. That premium has now flipped — enterprise mNAV has dipped below 1, putting the company’s valuation under the worth of the BTC it holds. Saylor is still teasing another buy, but Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse called the preferred-stock funding model “financial engineering” that has hurt crypto.

🔵 ETH Loses $1,600 — SharpLink and Whales Keep Buying the Dip

Ether is printing near $1,571, down roughly 45% on the year, with every major moving average stacked overhead as resistance. Yet conviction buyers keep stepping in: SharpLink broke an eight-month pause to buy 5,000 ETH plus $45.5M of LsETH, and a fresh whale wallet scooped 18,000+ ETH in nine days — a clear divergence from an ETF tape that’s still bleeding.

🟢 Samson Mow Says the Bitcoin Bottom Is In

The bitcoin advocate says the low is already set, arguing the traditional four-year halving cycle has broken down — even as plenty of analysts still expect more downside. It’s a call, not a confirmation, but one more voice leaning into the capitulation read down here, alongside the record long-term-holder accumulation and the bull div on the chart.

🟡 Bitcoin Trades Like a Liquidity Asset as 10Y Yields Hover Near 4.4%

The real driver isn’t the oil tape, it’s the bond market — 10-year Treasuries hovering around 4.4% keep speculative assets on a short leash. A hawkish Fed that lifted its 2026 rate path to 3.8% has crypto trading up when liquidity returns and down when it retreats. Less a hedge against chaos, more a barometer of financial stress until rates relax.

🟡 Defence of $58,000 Is the Key to July After $10.6B in Options Expire

More than $10.6B of bitcoin options expired June 26 with around 80% out of the money and max pain in the low $70,000s. Analysts put immediate support at $58,000–58,300; hold it and a push back above $60,000 is on the table, lose it and the first week of July likely opens weak. Direction now hinges on spot flows in the 72 hours after expiry as ETF trading resumes.

🔴 Coinbase Premium Negative for 40 Straight Days as Pros Keep Selling

The Coinbase Premium Index has sat negative for 40 consecutive sessions since May 15, a persistent discount read as professional selling pressure outweighing retail. Paired with seven days of ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed, it underlines how thin the institutional bid has gone — the single variable bulls most need to see flip back positive before trusting a turn.

🟡 BTC Heads for a Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Loss as H1 Closes Red

Down nearly 7% on the week, bitcoin is on track to close a second straight quarter in the red — a back-to-back losing first half that cuts against the usual pattern. Ether is ending Q2 down too, and the altcoins fell harder. It’s a sobering frame, but stretched, oversold quarters are also where downside tends to get exhausted rather than begin.

🔵 Binance EU Exodus — Coinbase and OKX Turn the MiCA Fight Into Market Share

A MiCA compliance stumble has pushed European users to look elsewhere, and rivals are pouncing — Coinbase and OKX are leaning into the gap to grab share across the bloc. With a US Senate vote on landmark crypto rules also looming, regulation is back as a live market-mover this week rather than background noise.

🔴 Solana Whales Bet $150M Against SOL — Bears Eye $40 if Support Cracks

A cluster of large wallets has stacked roughly $150M in short exposure against Solana, with bears pointing to a slide toward $40 if the current support gives way. It’s a reminder that even names with a live catalyst — tokenized-stock trading has fuelled Solana-ecosystem momentum — aren’t immune when the broader tape stays risk-off.

🔵 Coinbase CEO Frames Tokenization as a Win for Everyone

Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong is leaning hard into tokenization, arguing that putting stocks, funds and real-world assets on-chain expands the pie rather than cannibalising it. With tokenized-stock trading already driving fresh volume across Solana and other venues, the structural bet is that rails — not this week’s price — are where the durable growth sits.

🔵 ETH Bearish Below $1,600 but Oversold — Bears Eye $1,490, Bulls Need $1,610

Ethereum is pinned below every major moving average with the MACD histogram frozen near zero — a compression point that, on history, resolves down about 60% of the time. Bears want a close under $1,537 to open $1,492; bulls need to reclaim $1,610 to trigger an oversold bounce toward $1,665–$1,700. Deeply oversold momentum cuts both ways, but the burden of proof sits with the bulls.

🟠 Low-Caps Whip Both Ways as Velvet Rips and MemeCore Collapses

With BTC and ETH heavy, capital rotated hard into select low-caps: Velvet surged ~235% toward its all-time high and DeXe ran ~60%, while MemeCore crashed ~70% amid insider-manipulation reports, Worldcoin fell ~26% and Stellar dropped ~18.5%. Sharp, narrow moves in a cautious market — the kind of tape where chasing rotations cuts both ways fast.

🟡 CZ Blames Crypto’s Sour 2026 on a Mix of AI, Global Tension and the 4-Year Cycle

Binance founder CZ told CoinDesk there is no single cause for crypto’s roughly 50% decline over the past year — pointing instead to capital chasing AI, elevated global tension and the familiar four-year cycle all landing at once. It’s a reminder that this drawdown is as much about where the marginal risk dollar is going as anything crypto-native.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 12 — deep fear — while BTC leans on the 58,000–60,000 box at 59,770. What makes today read a little differently is the flow underneath: a bull div and blue dot printing on the oscillator, and a record 181,000 BTC moving into long-term-holder accumulation on the same day short-term holders dumped 50,000 onto exchanges. That hand-off — weak hands out, strong hands in — is usually where bottoms quietly start to form, but I’m not front-running it. The setup is clean: the 58,000–60,000 box is the floor that can’t break, 60,000 the first reclaim, the Quantum Reactor and the 64,200 POC the hurdles above, with the 50/100/200 day MAs stacked from 67k up. The tape around it is still heavy — a 7th day of ETF outflows, the Coinbase premium negative for 40 days, Strategy below the value of its own bitcoin, and 10-year yields near 4.4% keeping liquidity tight. But the tells the other way are real: record accumulation, Samson Mow calling the low in, and an oversold ETH that whales and SharpLink keep buying. So it’s a watch-and-react day: respect the box, wait for the 60k reclaim and a grind toward the POC with closes, keep size sensible, and if the base builds we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

The downside is starting to look tired. Bitcoin is resting on the 58,500–60,000 demand box at 60,087 — still inside the broader downtrend off the 82,500 highs, but holding the zone that has caught this whole leg down. The reason today reads a little differently: for the first time this cycle, a long-term capitulation signal has fired. The ratio of coins spent at a loss has hit its lowest of the bear market, the kind of UTXO read that has marked previous bottoms, and one analyst put it plainly — “the bottom signal I’ve been waiting for just fired,” while warning it can take weeks to play out. That doesn’t make it a turn. Record 10.83M BTC now sit in unrealised loss with 37% of long-term holders underwater, spot ETFs bled $1.2B on the week ($696M on June 26 alone), and Strategy now trades below the value of its own bitcoin. Nothing confirms until BTC reclaims the descending trendline and the 65k supply with daily closes; lose 58,000 and the downtrend simply continues. Fear and Greed sits at 18 — still fear. A potential base, not yet a turn — watch the box and keep size sensible.

YourSunday BTC price action summary

🟢 BULLISH

On the daily, price is sitting at the lower edge of the green EG demand box around 58,500–60,000, which has held as support through this leg down. For bulls, holding this zone and putting in a daily close back above 60,000 would be the first step, with the descending green trendline right here as the level to reclaim. Above that, the first real test is the 65,000–67,000 supply block (the 34.99%/65.01% imbalance), then the 70,000 area. The oscillator is showing the cyan line trying to curl up off the lows with green signals printing at the base, which can point to momentum stabilising — though on the daily it would need a few closes to confirm rather than a single candle.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Zoomed out, BTC is still inside a broader downtrend off the 82,500 highs, so this could just as easily be a base forming or simply a pause before continuation. Support is the 58,500–60,000 EG box price is resting on now. Overhead is the descending trendline, then the 65k supply and 70k above that. Until BTC reclaims the trendline and starts building daily higher lows, this reads more like price holding a level than turning the trend. The oscillator may be stabilising down here, but the larger structure is still pointing down, so we can potentially expect a range between roughly 58,000 and 65,000 while it works out direction.

🔴 BEARISH

The level to watch is the 58,500–60,000 box. A daily close that loses 58,000 would suggest the demand zone has failed and the downtrend off 82,500 is continuing, opening room toward the next lower area. While price stays below the descending trendline and the 65k supply, sellers may keep control on the higher timeframe, and bounces into that overhead supply could be where they re-engage. The broader trend is still down until proven otherwise, so this side stays in play unless the box holds and price reclaims above.

📋 SUMMARY

On the daily, BTC is resting on the 58,500–60,000 demand box at 60,087, still inside the larger downtrend off the 82,500 highs. The zone has held so far and the oscillator is trying to stabilise, which keeps a potential base in play — but nothing’s confirmed on this timeframe until price reclaims the descending trendline and the 65k supply with daily closes. Support 58,000, the trendline and 65,000–67,000 as the hurdles above, 70,000 beyond that. It firms up if the box holds and BTC starts building higher lows; it weakens on a daily close under 58,000. Until then we can potentially expect a range while the higher timeframe decides. We’ll keep watching it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — CAPITULATION SIGNALS: THE BOTTOM THAT FEELS TERRIBLE, OR JUST A PAUSE?

The interesting thing about today isn’t the price — it’s the signal underneath it. For the first time this cycle, the ratio of bitcoin spent in profit versus loss has dropped to its lowest of the bear market. Here’s both sides, straight:

🔹 Why it’s worth noting. This particular read has caught every cycle low since 2016. As one analyst put it, “it will still feel terrible for weeks — if buying here were comfortable, the signal wouldn’t exist.” Price reached into the 58,500–60,000 demand box, the zone has held, and the oscillator is trying to curl up off the base with green signals printing. Swissblock reckons we’re past the initial breakdown and now in the “base formation phase.” Capitulation this deep, while price holds a level, is usually how bases begin.

🔹 Why patience still wins. A signal firing is not a trend turning. Record 10.83M BTC sit underwater, 37% of long-term holders are in loss, and that cohort’s profit ratio is sliding negative — the patient money is feeling it too. ETFs bled $1.2B on the week, Strategy now trades below the value of its own bitcoin, and the macro tape — a firmer dollar, a gold-and-silver selloff on a hawkish Fed — keeps doing the driving. A base takes time.

The patient play: let the box prove itself. Hold 58,000 and reclaim the descending trendline and the 65k supply with daily closes, and the base-building case strengthens toward 70,000; lose 58,000 and the downtrend simply continues toward the next lower area. Respect the levels, not the signal.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 Capitulation Signal Fires for the First Time This Cycle as BTC Holds the Box

The ratio of bitcoin UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss has fallen to its lowest of this bear cycle — a read CryptoQuant analysts say reflects the start of a broader capitulation, and one that has historically coincided with bear-market bottoms. “The bottom signal I’ve been waiting for just fired,” one analyst noted, while warning it can still take weeks to play out. BTC dipped to $59,800 early Sunday before recovering $60,100, still leaning on the 58.5–60k demand box.

🔴 Record 10.83M BTC Now Sit in Unrealised Loss — 37% of Long-Term Holders Underwater

After the slide under $59,100, Glassnode data shows a record 10.83 million BTC held at an unrealised loss, with 37% of long-term-holder coins now underwater. The spent-output profit ratio for that cohort is sliding into negative territory — a sign even the patient money is feeling the drawdown. It’s the kind of deep-loss reading that tends to cluster near lows, but it’s also a measure of how much pain is already in the tape.

🔴 Spot BTC ETFs Bleed $1.2B on the Week — $696M Pulled on June 26 Alone

US spot bitcoin ETFs shed more than $1.2 billion over the week, with roughly $696 million redeemed on June 26 — the largest single-day pull of the month — and BlackRock’s IBIT among the hardest hit. The steady institutional selling, paired with rising exchange inflows, has been the engine of this leg lower. Whether the box holds depends a lot on whether those outflows finally cool.

🔴 Over $538M Liquidated in 24 Hours — 82% From Longs

The break under $60,000 forced more than $538 million in liquidations across roughly 156,000 traders in a single day, with 82.3% from longs and one $351 million event on June 25. Open interest has been unwinding rather than building — futures OI down near $45B — which points to leverage being flushed out rather than fresh shorts piling in.

🔴 Strategy Now Trades Below the Value of Its Own Bitcoin

For years the market valued Strategy well above its bitcoin stack, giving Michael Saylor’s firm the flexibility to raise capital at will. That premium has now flipped — the company’s valuation has slipped below the worth of the BTC it holds. It’s a stark repricing of the leverage in the capital stack, and a reminder of how much strain the drawdown is putting on the most exposed proxy in the market.

🔵 ETH Slides Under $1,800 — van de Poppe Calls It a “Massive Opportunity”

Ether dropped to just over $1,500 for the first time in well over a year, sitting below the $1,800 level analyst Michaël van de Poppe flags as significant. He sees a potential strong bullish divergence forming and names $1,505 and $1,385 as the levels where ETH would be a “tremendous” accumulation zone — while doubting it actually falls that far.

🟡 Ethereum Stares Down a Third Straight Red Quarter — July Offers a Lifeline

ETH is on track to close a third consecutive quarter in the red, something it has never done before — after roughly −28% in Q4, −29% in Q1 and down about 24% so far in Q2. The thin bull thread: July has historically bounced after a red June, in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2025. Seasonality isn’t a setup, but for a beaten-down tape it’s at least something to point at.

🔵 Tether Puts Its $23B Gold Stockpile to Work With Bullion-Backed Loans

Tether is extending its tokenized-gold play, letting holders of XAUT borrow against their bullion without selling — mirroring the bitcoin-backed lending model. With gold itself wobbling, putting a $23 billion stockpile to work is a notable move that deepens the stablecoin issuer’s footprint in real-world collateral.

🟡 Gold and Silver Selloff Is Dragging Bitcoin Lower as the Fed Stays Hawkish

The trade that lumped bitcoin in with precious metals as a dollar hedge is unwinding. A hawkish Fed and a “higher-for-longer” rate path have hit gold and silver, and BTC is sliding alongside the metals it was meant to rival. When the macro turns risk-off, crypto’s high-beta behaviour shows through — the levels matter, but so does the dollar.

🟡 CZ Blames Crypto’s Sour 2026 on a Mix of AI, Global Tension and the 4-Year Cycle

Binance founder CZ told CoinDesk there is no single cause for crypto’s roughly 50% decline over the past year — pointing instead to capital chasing AI, elevated global tension and the familiar four-year cycle all landing at once. It’s a reminder that this drawdown is as much about where the marginal risk dollar is going as anything crypto-native.

🔵 Swissblock: BTC Is Past the Breakdown but Still in the “Base Formation Phase”

On-chain analytics firm Swissblock says bitcoin has likely moved beyond the initial breakdown, but “we’re still in the base formation phase.” Price is stabilising while momentum stays deeply negative and the impulse read has only just returned to neutral. Translation: the worst of the flush may be behind, but a base takes time to build — patience over heroics.

🟣 Aave and Solana Tokens Lead a Rebound as BTC Steadies Near $60K

While bitcoin grinds, Aave and Solana-ecosystem tokens have led a pocket of strength, with tokenized-stock trading fuelling fresh momentum across Solana and Aave’s founder hinting at token buybacks under a new framework. It’s a reminder that even in a heavy tape, capital still rotates toward the names with a live catalyst.

🟠 Miners Absorb an 18% Hashprice Crash as the Network Holds

Bitcoin’s hashprice — the revenue miners earn per unit of hashpower — has crashed roughly 18% as price grinds and difficulty stays elevated, squeezing margins across the sector. Miners absorbing the hit without an obvious capitulation in hashrate is constructive for network security, but it’s another pressure point if BTC can’t reclaim higher ground.

🔵 Former Ethereum Foundation Leader Warns of a Funding Gap as Governance Shifts

A former Ethereum Foundation member says the network must quickly build new funding institutions as the Foundation steps back from its historical role. With ETH price and sentiment both heavy, the worry is that core public-goods funding could thin out just as the ecosystem needs it most — a structural question that outlasts any single candle.

🔴 Dogecoin and Hyperliquid’s HYPE Lead Weekly Crypto Losses as AI Stocks Lure Buyers

A rotation out of chipmakers lifted much of the stock market — the equal-weight S&P 500 hit a record — but crypto was not invited. Ether fell on the week and the memecoins dropped harder, with Dogecoin and Hyperliquid’s HYPE among the biggest losers. When the marginal risk dollar chases AI equities, the high-beta crypto names feel it first.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 18 — still fear — while BTC leans on the 58,500–60,000 demand box at 60,087. What makes today worth a closer look is the signal underneath: for the first time this cycle a long-term capitulation read has fired, the kind that’s caught previous lows, with one analyst noting it “will still feel terrible for weeks.” That gap between deep fear and a market starting to base is usually where bottoms quietly form — but I’m not front-running it. The setup is clean: demand box at 58,500–60,000 holding, the descending trendline and 65,000–67,000 supply as the hurdles above, 70,000 beyond that, and 58,000 the floor that can’t break. The tape around it is heavy — record 10.83M BTC underwater, $1.2B in weekly ETF outflows, Strategy now trading below the value of its own bitcoin, and a gold-and-silver selloff dragging BTC on a firmer dollar. But there are tells the other way: Swissblock sees a base forming, Aave and Solana names are leading a bounce, and ETH has a July seasonal to lean on. So it’s a watch-and-react day: respect the box, wait for the trendline and 65k reclaim with daily closes, keep size sensible, and if the base builds we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

The bounce is holding. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 line and is sitting above it at 60,244 — a step further than yesterday, when price was still wicking the 58,000 discount and fighting to get back over 60k. The bull divergences that printed into the sweep are still playing out as price curls up, which keeps the move alive, but this is a bounce that’s holding rather than a confirmed trend turn. The 60,000 line is now the pivot to defend, the swept discount at 58,000–59,000 is the floor, and equilibrium around 62,800 is the upside target if buyers keep stepping in — with the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend near 64k still capping every push. It firms up on a 4H close that holds above 60k and starts stacking higher lows; it weakens if 60k goes again, and a close back under 58,000 would put the bearish case right back in play. The tape around it is busy: Deribit settled its $10B June quarterly options expiry, Strategy’s bitcoin bet is showing a ~$14B paper loss with MSTR under $100 and Saylor publicly acknowledging the STRC volatility, while whales moved 37,806 old ETH and XRP, SOL and LINK all try to carve recoveries. Fear and Greed sits at 15 — still fear. Watch whether 60k holds as support and keep size sensible.

Your 3 outlooks today

🟢 BULLISH

Price has now reclaimed 60,000 and is holding above it at 60,244, so the bounce off the 58,000 discount sweep is still intact for now. If buyers keep building on this, the next step would be a push into the 60,800–61,300 area, then a test of the equilibrium band around 62,800. The bull divs on the oscillator (green and yellow) that printed into the sweep are still playing out as price curls up, which keeps the bounce alive. It would firm up further on a 4H close that holds above 60k and starts stacking higher lows. Worth noting the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend sit around 64k and above, so they could still cap any move up before equilibrium or premium come into play.

🟡 NEUTRAL

The reclaim of 60,000 is holding but it’s early, so this could just as easily settle into a range. Floor is the swept discount zone at 58,000–59,000 and the reclaimed 60,000 line beneath price. Ceiling is equilibrium at ~62,800, with the 64k zone above that. Until BTC builds away from 60k with conviction, this reads more like a bounce that’s holding than a confirmed trend turn. The divergence may hint sellers are short on momentum down here, but overhead supply is still heavy, so we can potentially expect a range between roughly 59,500 and 62,000 until one side gives.

🔴 BEARISH

The level to watch is a loss of 60,000 and then the discount zone — a 4H close back under 58,000 would suggest the bounce failed, could void the divergence, and point to the wicks being a pause rather than a low. If price slips back below 60k and starts rejecting from it rather than holding, sellers may regain control, and the move back toward and below the 58k discount could open up. While price stays capped under equilibrium and the 64k zone, rallies into supply could be the areas sellers lean on.

📋 SUMMARY

The bounce off the 58,000 discount sweep is holding — BTC has reclaimed 60,000 and the bull divs that printed into the lows are still in play. That’s a step further than yesterday, but it’s a bounce that’s holding rather than a confirmed turn. Floor around 58,000, the 60,000 line now reclaimed as the pivot, equilibrium ~62,800 as the upside target if buyers keep stepping in. It firms up if BTC builds higher lows above 60k; it weakens if 60k goes again, and a close back under 58k would put the bearish case back in play. Until then we can potentially expect a range, with the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend capping from above. Watch whether 60k holds as support and whether buyers can push toward equilibrium — we’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — THE RECLAIM HOLDS: A BOUNCE THAT’S BUILDING, OR A LOWER-HIGH IN THE MAKING?

Bitcoin reclaiming 60,000 and holding it at 60,244 is the first real step up from this week’s discount sweep, so it’s worth being straight about both sides:

🔹 The constructive bits. Price reached into the 58,000 discount, potentially took the resting orders below the lows, and has now curled back up and reclaimed 60,000 — exactly the sequence you’d want to see if a low is trying to form. The regular and hidden bull divergences that printed into the sweep are still playing out as price lifts, which says the sellers were running low on fuel down there. And the longer-horizon money keeps leaning in while the tape looks heavy: whales moved 37,806 old ETH around the $1.5K conviction test, treasury and strategic buyers keep accumulating spot, and exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken are still doing strategic M&A through the drawdown. Fear this deep while price starts to reclaim is usually how bases begin.

🔹 The reasons to stay patient. A reclaim that’s only hours old is not a trend turn. The 60,000 line has to hold as support now, the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend near 64k cap every push, and a 4H close back under 58,000 voids the divergence and reopens the air below. Strategy’s ~$14B paper loss, MSTR slipping under $100 and Saylor publicly flagging the STRC volatility are a reminder of how much pressure the leveraged names are still under, and the macro tape — a firmer dollar, sticky yields, wobble at the top of the tech complex — is still doing plenty of the driving.

The patient play: let the reclaim prove itself. Hold above 60k and start stacking higher lows for a push toward the 60,800–61,300 pocket then equilibrium ~62,800, or lose 60k and rotate back toward the discount where I start watching the next setup. Respect the levels, not the rumour.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 BTC Reclaims $60K and Holds at 60,244 — the Bounce Off the Discount Builds

A step further than yesterday. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 line and is holding above it at 60,244, building on the bounce off the 58,000 discount sweep rather than rejecting from the level the way it did all week. The bull divergences that printed into the lows are still playing out as price curls up. It’s a bounce that’s holding, not a confirmed turn — 60k is now the pivot to defend, equilibrium ~62,800 the target if buyers keep stepping in.

🔵 Deribit Settles Its $10B June Quarterly Options Expiry — $783M in the Money

The year’s big quarter-end expiry has rolled off the book: Deribit settled roughly $10 billion in BTC and ETH options, with about $783 million expiring in the money. With spot far below the $72K max-pain level, the usual pin never materialised — and the post-expiry reset clears a chunk of dealer hedging out of the way, which can free price to move now the contracts are gone.

🔴 Strategy’s Bitcoin Gamble Turns Sour — ~$14B Paper Loss Raises Fears of a Deeper Fall

Strategy’s bitcoin-heavy bet is showing a roughly $14 billion unrealised loss as BTC grinds through the discount, stoking fears the leveraged proxy could amplify any further downside. With MSTR’s common stock under $100, the market is openly repricing the leverage in the firm’s capital stack — when the proxy trades this heavy, it tells you how much strain the drawdown is putting on the leveraged names.

🔴 Saylor Acknowledges the Volatility as STRC Hits a New Low on BTC Weakness

Michael Saylor publicly acknowledged the “volatility test” as Strategy’s STRC preferred printed a fresh low and the common dipped under $100 on bitcoin weakness. It’s a notable shift in tone — the firm leaning into the drawdown rather than waving it away — and it underlines how the leveraged bitcoin trade is being stress-tested in real time.

🟡 Ripple’s Garlinghouse Slams Saylor for Using STRC to Buy More Bitcoin

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse took aim at Strategy’s playbook, criticising the use of the STRC preferred to keep adding bitcoin into weakness and questioning the sustainability of funding BTC purchases off the firm’s stock. A rare public swipe between two of the most prominent names in the space — and a window into the debate over how aggressively to lever into bitcoin here.

🐋 Old Ether Wallets Move 37,806 ETH as Whale Conviction Faces a Key Test at $1.5K

Long-dormant Ether wallets shifted 37,806 ETH overnight, a large old-coin move that tends to signal conviction one way or the other near a key level. With ETH testing the $1.5K area, the question is whether these are holders rotating out or repositioning to accumulate — the same split signal we keep seeing, with funds bleeding while strategic holders lean back in.

🟢 July May Be the Lifeline XRP Holders Waited For, Price History Suggests

XRP is holding near the critical $2 mark after a roughly 22% June plunge, but historical Q3 data signals a potential July recovery toward $3.40, according to one read of past seasonality. It’s a thin reed in a heavy tape, but for a coin that’s been beaten down all month, a friendlier July seasonal is at least something for the bulls to point at.

🟡 Solana Rebounds to $72 Even as On-Chain Metrics Keep Declining

SOL has bounced back toward $72, recovering some of the recent damage — but the rebound is happening against falling on-chain activity and softer network metrics, a divergence worth respecting. Price holding up while usage cools is the kind of split that tends to resolve one way or the other quickly; for now SOL is leaning on the broader crypto bounce rather than its own fundamentals.

🔵 Chainlink Joins Project Pangea to Modernize FX Settlement for 47 Banks

Chainlink has joined Project Pangea, an industry push to modernize foreign-exchange settlement across 47 banks, targeting the T+1 FX settlement problem with on-chain infrastructure. It’s framed as middleware rather than a SWIFT replacement — but a deeper foothold in real institutional plumbing is exactly the kind of utility story LINK bulls want to see through a downturn.

🟢 Chainlink: Do ETF Inflows and Reserve Growth Hint at a LINK Recovery?

LINK has seen steady reserve growth and a pickup in ETF-related interest even as price keeps grinding, prompting the question of whether the quiet accumulation is setting up a recovery. The on-chain build is constructive, but with price still capped it reads more like base-building than a confirmed turn — one to watch if the wider tape steadies.

🔴 Cardano Wallets Hit by SecondFi Exploit as a Private-Key Flaw Sparks a Security Warning

A security incident tied to SecondFi has hit Cardano-linked wallets, with a private-key generation flaw at the centre of the warning — though the Cardano protocol itself was not compromised. Another reminder that in a risk-off tape the operational and security threats don’t pause: revoke approvals, check sources and don’t sign blind, especially when the mood is fearful.

🔴 “Halt Is Not Okay” — Base Faces Scrutiny Over a Consensus Problem

Coinbase’s Base network is under the microscope after a consensus issue raised questions about decentralization and the single-sequencer model, reviving the “a halt is not okay” debate around L2 reliability. As more value settles on these rails, uptime and credible decentralization become the trust questions that matter — and Base is now wearing that spotlight.

🔵 Zuckerberg Urges Meta to Explore Polymarket and Kalshi Partnerships

Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly pushing Meta to explore tie-ups with prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, a sign the mainstream tech giants are circling the on-chain prediction-market trend. If a platform with Meta’s distribution leans in, it would be a major validation of the space — and another bridge between big tech and crypto-native rails.

🔴 Polymarket to Reimburse Users After a $3M Third-Party Supply-Chain Breach

Polymarket confirmed it will cover users hit by a roughly $3 million loss traced to a compromised third-party front-end integration, not a flaw in its own contracts. The fix is reassuring, but the attack vector — a supply-chain breach through a trusted integration — is exactly the kind of risk that doesn’t slow down when sentiment is fearful.

🔵 SpaceX Set to Join the Nasdaq-100 — Another Bridge Between Megacap Tech and Risk Appetite

SpaceX is poised to enter the Nasdaq-100, one of the quickest additions to the index in recent memory, after a fresh wave of buying. Why it matters for crypto: it’s the same risk capital. When the megacap-tech trade is the marginal buyer of everything from indices to bitcoin, where that money flows sets the tone for the high-beta names too.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 15 — still fear — while BTC reclaims 60,000 and holds it at 60,244. That gap between a fearful mood and a market that’s actually started to reclaim is usually where bases quietly build, but I’m not front-running it. The setup is clean: swept discount at 58,000–59,000 underneath, the 60,000 line now reclaimed as the pivot, equilibrium ~62,800 above, and the bull divs that printed into the lows still playing out as price curls up. The reaction is the whole trade — hold above 60k and stack higher lows for a push toward the 60,800–61,300 pocket then ~62,800; lose 60k and reject from it and the bearish case is back, with a close under 58k reopening the air below. The tape around it is busy: Deribit settled its $10B quarterly expiry, Strategy’s ~$14B paper loss has MSTR under $100 with Saylor flagging the STRC volatility, and whales moved 37,806 old ETH. But there are tells the other way too — XRP, SOL and LINK are all trying to carve recoveries, and the strategic money keeps leaning in. So it’s a watch-and-react day: respect the 60k line, wait for the higher lows, keep size sensible, and if we get the build I want we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Yesterday’s reclaim didn’t stick. Bitcoin lost the $60,000 line again overnight and reached into the 58,000 discount zone — tagging an intraday low near $58,250, just above the 52-week low at $58,050 — before bouncing back to around $59,900. The shape of it looks like a liquidity sweep: resting orders below the lows taken and price rejecting up, with the regular plus hidden bull divergences printing into the move on the oscillator, which hints the sellers are tiring down here. But a sweep is only step one, and nothing’s reclaimed yet — the 60,000 line is the pivot, the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend near $64K are still capping every bounce, and a 4H close back under $58,000 would put the bears right back in play. The tape is heavy: today brings a $10B quarter-end options expiry (max pain at $72K is so far above spot it won’t pin price), gold is set for a fourth straight weekly slide as the dollar firms, Asian markets opened a sea of red, and MSTR slipped below $100. But there are counter-tells — BlackRock reiterated a 1–2% BTC allocation, Tether’s market cap passed Ethereum’s at $186B, Kraken is eyeing a 15% stake in Aave, and whales kept buying ETH’s 2026-low dip. Fear and Greed sits at 13. Respect the levels, watch for the 60k reclaim and the B print, and keep size sensible.

Your BTC outlook today

🟢 BULLISH

The wicks into the 58,000 discount zone look like the downside liquidity being swept — resting orders below the lows potentially taken and price rejecting back up. If that’s what it is, the next step bulls would want is a reclaim of 60,000 that holds, possibly followed by a B print to suggest buyers are defending the discount. From there we could potentially see a move into the 60,800–61,300 pocket, and if momentum builds, the equilibrium band around 62,800. The regular and hidden bull divs on the oscillator (green and yellow) are printing into the sweep, which can be the conditions for a bounce — though it would only really firm up on a 4H close back above 60k. Worth noting the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend sit around 64k and above, so they could cap any move up.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Liquidity may have been swept but nothing’s reclaimed yet, so this could just as easily stay rangebound. Floor is the discount zone at 58,000–59,000 — price wicked in, possibly took the orders, and is back at 59,906. Ceiling is the 60,000 line, then equilibrium at ~62,800 above it. Until BTC closes above 60k, this reads more like a bounce off discount than a confirmed base. The double divergence may hint sellers are losing some momentum down here, but it’s not reclaimed and the overhead supply is heavy, so we can potentially expect a range between roughly 59,000 and 61,000 until one side gives.

🔴 BEARISH

The level to watch is a 4H close back under 58,000. If that happens, it would suggest the sweep didn’t hold, could void the divergence, and point to the wicks being a pause rather than a low. Below 58k there isn’t much remaining support from this range until the next pocket down, so downside could open up. While price keeps rejecting from 60,000 rather than reclaiming it, sellers may stay in control, and bounces into supply could be the areas they lean on.

📋 SUMMARY

The wicks into 58,000 look like the downside liquidity being swept — resting orders below the lows potentially taken and rejected. That, plus the double bull div on the oscillator, could be the early setup for a low, but a sweep is only the first step and it’s far from confirmed. Floor around 58,000, the 60,000 line as the pivot, equilibrium ~62,800 as a possible upside target if buyers step in. None of it firms up until BTC reclaims 60k on a 4H close and ideally prints a B. Until then we can potentially expect a range, with the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend capping from above. A close under 58k would put the bearish case back in play. Watch the 60k reclaim and the B print — we’ll stay on it in Discord through the day.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — A SWEEP INTO THE 58s ON QUARTERLY EXPIRY DAY: BASE OR BREAKDOWN?

Bitcoin reaching back into the 58,000 discount on the same morning as one of the year’s biggest options expiries makes this a clean fork, so it’s worth being straight about both sides:

🔹 The constructive bits. The move down still has the look of a liquidity grab — price reached into the 58s, potentially took the resting orders below the lows and rejected back up, leaving the regular plus hidden bull divergences on the oscillator that say the sellers are running low on fuel down here. The longer-horizon money keeps leaning in while the tape looks ugly: BlackRock reiterated that a modest 1–2% bitcoin allocation improves a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns, ETH whales like Sharplink stepped back in for the first time in eight months to buy the sub-$1,700 dip (lifting its stack to ~836,395 ETH), and Tether’s market cap passing Ethereum’s at $186B shows where dollar demand is hiding. Fear this deep while price refuses to stay broken is usually how bases start to form.

🔹 The reasons to stay patient. Nothing’s been reclaimed yet — the 60,000 line is still the pivot, the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend near $64K cap every bounce, and a clean 4H close back under $58,000 voids the sweep and opens air below the 52-week low at $58,050. Today’s $10B quarter-end expiry, the fourth straight weekly slide in gold, a sea of red across Asian markets and MSTR slipping under $100 all keep the pressure on. The macro tape is still doing the driving — a firmer dollar and higher-for-longer rate bets leave zero-yield assets from bullion to bitcoin out of favour.

The patient play: let the sweep show its hand. Reclaim 60k on a close and print a B for a push toward the 60,800–61,300 pocket then equilibrium ~62,800, or lose 58k on a close and rotate down to where I start watching for the next setup. Respect the levels, not the rumour.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🔴 BTC Slides Back Under $60K and Reaches Into the 58s

The relief reclaim didn’t hold. Bitcoin lost the $60,000 line again overnight and wicked toward the 58,000–59,000 discount pocket — tagging an intraday low near $58,250 — before recovering to ~$59,900, down roughly 1.7% on the day. The 52-week low sits just beneath at $58,050, so this is the floor bulls have to defend. While price keeps rejecting from $60,000 rather than reclaiming it, the sellers stay in the driver’s seat.

🟡 The Wicks Into 58,000 Look Like a Liquidity Sweep — But It’s Only Step One

The move down had the shape of a grab: price reached into the discount zone, potentially took the resting orders below the lows, then rejected back up, leaving the regular plus hidden bull divergences on the oscillator. The sellers look tired down here, but nothing’s reclaimed yet — the 60,000 line is the pivot and the Quantum Reactor sits overhead. It only firms up once price closes a 4H back above 60k and ideally prints a B. Until then it’s a bounce, not a base.

🔵 $10B Quarterly Options Expiry Lands Today — Max Pain at $72K Won’t Pin BTC

Friday’s quarter-end options expiry is one of the year’s biggest, but with spot near $59,900 the $72,000 max-pain level is a world away — so the usual magnet effect that drags price toward max pain is unlikely to bite this time. Quarterly expiries behave differently: a chunk of open interest is already worthless, dealer hedging unwinds, and the post-expiry reset can free price to move once the contracts roll off.

🔴 Options Traders Keep Hedging Downside as Uncertainty Lingers

Anchorage Digital says traders are still paying up for protection rather than positioning for a bounce: short-dated put demand stays elevated and one-week skew is tilted toward downside cover. It echoes the Deribit picture — desks are bracing for more pain into the expiry and the macro tape, not betting the low is in. A nervous options book, but also dry powder if buyers reclaim the level.

🟢 BlackRock Backs Bitcoin as a Portfolio Enhancer — Recommends a 1–2% Allocation

The world’s largest asset manager reiterated that a modest 1–2% bitcoin sleeve can improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns, framing BTC as a diversifier rather than a speculative punt. The message lands in the teeth of a sixth straight week of ETF outflows — a reminder that the long-horizon institutional case and the short-term flow picture can point in opposite directions. For allocators, deep fear at these levels is exactly when a strategic slice gets cheaper.

🔴 Gold Set for a Fourth Straight Weekly Slide as the Dollar Firms

Even the haven trade is bleeding: gold slipped toward $3,019/oz and is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly loss — roughly 3% on the week — as a resilient dollar and firming Fed rate-hike bets sap demand. With the greenback bid and yields sticky, zero-yield assets from bullion to bitcoin are fighting the same higher-for-longer tape. When gold can’t catch a bid, it tells you how strong the dollar headwind really is.

🔴 Asian Markets a Sea of Red as Risk Appetite Sours

The risk-off mood spread across Asia overnight, with the major indices broadly lower as a SpaceX-led tech wobble, a firmer dollar and rate-hike repricing rippled through global equities. Crypto has been trading the macro tape tick for tick, so a red screen across stocks keeps the pressure on BTC into the weekend. Until risk appetite broadens back out, bitcoin is fighting the tape as much as the chart.

🟢 Tether Surpasses Ethereum in Market Cap — USDT Hits $186B

A milestone that says everything about the cycle: Tether’s USDT circulating supply has swollen to roughly $186 billion, edging past Ethereum’s market capitalisation during the downturn. Demand for dollar-pegged stability is booming even as risk assets bleed — the stablecoin has quietly become one of the most strategic pieces of crypto’s plumbing, and its growth through the drawdown shows where the money is hiding.

🟡 Kraken in Talks to Buy 15% of DeFi Lender Aave at a $385M Valuation

Crypto exchange Kraken is reportedly in talks to acquire a 15% stake in Aave for around 250,000 AAVE tokens (~$71M), valuing the DeFi lending protocol near $385 million. The deal would hand Kraken a deeper foothold in on-chain finance just as the firm eyes a wider DeFi push — strategic money stepping in even as TVL across the sector slides.

🟢 Sharplink Buys ETH After 8-Month Pause as the Token Hits a 2026 Low

Treasury firm Sharplink stepped back into the market for the first time in eight months, adding ETH into a fresh 2026 low and lifting its stack to about 836,395 ETH. It’s another whale buying the sub-$1,700 dip even as Ether ETFs bleed — the same split signal we keep seeing: institutions trimming the funds while strategic holders accumulate the spot.

🔵 XRP Ledger Overtakes Ethereum in RLUSD Stablecoin Supply

The XRP Ledger now hosts a larger share of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin than Ethereum does, a notable flip for a network long overshadowed by ETH in the stablecoin race. RLUSD’s tilt toward the XRPL underscores how the dollar-token land grab is fragmenting across chains — and how aggressively Ripple is pushing its own rails.

🔴 Solana Prints a Bearish Double-Top — $60 Neckline in Focus

SOL is carving a textbook double-top with the neckline support sitting around $60, and a break there would open downside toward the next demand shelf. Price is down roughly 20% even as Solana’s on-chain activity climbs on a fresh wave of meme-coin volume — but exchange inflows point to steady selling pressure. Defend $60 and the pattern stalls; lose it and the chart turns.

🔴 MSTR Slips Below $100 as STRC Preferred Trades Deep Below Par

Strategy’s common stock dipped under $100 for the first time since March 2024, while its STRC preferred is changing hands well below par — a sign the market is repricing the leverage baked into the firm’s bitcoin-heavy capital stack. When the proxy trades this heavy, it tells you how much pressure the broader BTC drawdown is putting on the leveraged names.

🟢 Coinbase Open to More Deals After $2.9B Deribit Acquisition Closes

With its $2.9 billion Deribit takeover now done, Coinbase says it’s hunting further acquisitions as it pushes beyond spot trading into derivatives. The CEO framed a buy-the-weakness strategy — using the downturn to consolidate infrastructure and market share. Strategic M&A picking up while sentiment sits at the floor is a classic late-bear-market tell.

🔵 DeFi Total Value Locked Plunges in 2026 as Yields Crash

Total value locked across DeFi has fallen sharply this year as falling token prices and collapsing yields drain capital from lending and liquidity pools. The flush is the backdrop to the sector’s scramble for relevance — Aave courting Kraken’s investment and proposing a cross-chain, yield-bearing sGHO stablecoin to win deposits back. Capital is consolidating into the strongest protocols while the long tail thins out.

🔵 StablecoinX Debuts on Nasdaq, Betting Big on Ethena With an $890M War Chest

The first publicly listed stablecoin-infrastructure firm hit the Nasdaq after merging with SBC Acquisition Corp, carrying a ~$890M treasury earmarked to back Ethena’s ecosystem — even as USDe’s circulating supply has shrunk roughly 80% from its 2025 peak above $14B. A bold public-market bet that synthetic-dollar infrastructure is a where-to-be trade through the downturn.

🔴 Polymarket to Reimburse Users After a $3M Third-Party Phishing Attack

Prediction-market platform Polymarket says it will fully reimburse users hit by a roughly $3 million phishing attack traced to a compromised third-party integration, not a flaw in its own contracts. A reminder that in a risk-off tape the operational and security threats don’t pause — verify the source before signing anything, especially when the wider mood is fearful.

🔵 OpenAI Could Reportedly Delay Its IPO After a SpaceX Listing Scare

Reports suggest OpenAI may push back its long-awaited public listing after SpaceX’s explosive market debut turned sour, rattling appetite for marquee tech IPOs. A wobble at the top of the AI complex matters for crypto because it’s the same risk capital: when the megacap-tech trade shakes, the spillover tends to hit bitcoin and the high-beta names first.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 13 — fear — while BTC wicks the 58,000 discount and tries to climb back over 60k. That gap between a fearful mood and a market that keeps refusing to stay broken is usually where bases quietly start, but I’m not front-running it. The setup is clean: discount zone at 58,000–59,000 underneath, the 60,000 line as the pivot, equilibrium ~62,800 above, and the regular plus hidden bull divs on the oscillator saying the downside is tiring. The reaction is the whole trade — reclaim 60k on a 4H close and print a B for a push toward the 60,800–61,300 pocket then ~62,800; lose 58k on a close and the bearish case is back, with open air below the 52-week low. The tape is heavy: today’s $10B quarterly expiry can shake things, gold’s on a fourth weekly slide, Asian markets opened red and MSTR slipped under $100. But the counter-tells are real too — BlackRock backs a 1–2% allocation, Tether passed Ethereum at $186B, Kraken’s eyeing Aave, and whales kept buying ETH’s 2026-low dip. So it’s a watch-and-react day: respect the levels, wait for the B print, keep size sensible, and if we get the reaction I want we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Bitcoin reached down overnight, wicked into the 59s and took out the 5 June equal-lows liquidity before snapping back above $60,000 — its first sub-$60K print since October 2024. That sweep-and-reclaim, paired with a double divergence on the oscillator (a regular bull div plus a hidden bull div), says the sellers are running low on fuel down here. But nothing’s reclaimed yet: the lost $62,000–62,500 order block is now resistance, and the Quantum Reactor near $65K plus all three MAs sit overhead, so any move up is climbing into supply. There’s no edge until BTC either holds 60k and reclaims 62k on a close — the bullish B print — or loses 60k again and the 59,000 wick goes first, then open air below. The tape is heavy: roughly $1B was liquidated into the flush ($800M of it longs), open interest rose as price fell (fresh shorts pressing), Deribit put skew widened as desks hedged for more pain, and spot ETFs logged a sixth straight week of outflows for near $6B. But there are counter-tells — BTC OGs slowed their selling to a two-year low, whales kept buying ETH’s dip, and funding ticked to a three-week high. Fear and Greed sits at 12 — extreme fear — and the PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge, lands today. Respect the levels, watch for that B print, and keep size sensible.

Your morning summary, what a 24h !

🟢 BULLISH

Bulls need the reclaim of 60,000 to stick, then a B print off the swept lows to confirm buyers stepped in. Get that and the first job is reclaiming the 62,000–62,500 order block we lost on the way down, then a push into the 63,000–64,000 zone. The regular bull div plus the hidden bull div (green and yellow on the osc) are the early tell — sellers ran the 5th June lows and couldn’t hold them. But it only counts once price closes back above 62k; until then it’s a bounce, not a base. The Quantum Reactor (~65k), the diagonal trend and the 50/100/200 MAs are all stacked overhead, so any move up is climbing into supply.

🟡 NEUTRAL

The sweep is done for now (or is it!) but nothing’s reclaimed yet. Floor is the swept low at 59,000–60,000 — we wicked into the 59s, grabbed the 5th June equal-lows liquidity and snapped back over 60k. Ceiling is the lost 62,000–62,500 order block, now resistance. Until one side gives, this is a relief-bounce range: 60,000 holding underneath, 62,000 capping above. The divergence says the downside is tiring down here, but it’s a heads-up, not a green light — the MAs and Quantum Reactor are still pinning every bounce from above. Expect chop between roughly 60,000 and 62,000 while it decides. As a very optimistic neutral play we could in theory range all the way back up to 67k.

🔴 BEARISH

We have our zone now, lose the reclaim and close back under 60,000. That voids the sweep, kills the divergence, and tells you the grab was just the start of the next leg down. Below 60k the 59,000 wick low goes first, then it’s open air toward the next pocket beneath. Sellers leaning on every bounce into overhead supply keeps the pressure on.

📋 SUMMARY

Liquidity grab, more pain ahead? BTC reached down, took the 5th June equal lows into the 59s, and reclaimed 60k. The double divergence hints the downside is running out of fuel, but the Quantum Reactor, diagonal trend and all three MAs are all above and there’s a huge pocket of resistance now, so nothing’s confirmed until BTC either holds 60k and reclaims 62k on a close (bullish B print) or loses 60k again (bearish continuation). For now, respect the levels — watch for that B print. Let’s stay on it all day in Discord and see if the sweep turns into a base or just a bounce.

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WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — A SWEEP INTO THE 59s WITH F&G AT 12: BASE OR BREAKDOWN?

Bitcoin’s first trip under $60,000 since October 2024, with Fear and Greed pinned at 12, is the cleanest fork on the board, so it’s worth being straight about both sides:

🔹 The constructive bits. The move down had the look of a liquidity grab — price reached into the 59s, took out the 5 June equal-lows liquidity and snapped back over 60k, leaving a double divergence on the oscillator (regular plus hidden bull div) that says the sellers are running low on fuel down here. Under the hood the supply picture is quietly improving: BTC OGs have slowed their selling to the lowest pace since November 2024 (90-day average near 962 coins), Purpose’s spot ETF has added ~86 BTC a day through the dip, and ETH whales — a16z, Bitmine, Sharplink — kept stacking the sub-$1,700 dip. Funding even ticked to a three-week high. Fear this deep while price refuses to stay broken is usually how bases start to form.

🔹 The reasons to stay patient. Nothing’s been reclaimed yet — the lost $62K order block, the Quantum Reactor and all three MAs are capping every bounce, and a clean 4H close back under $60,000 voids the sweep and opens the 59,000 wick then open air below. The tape is heavy: roughly $1B was liquidated into the flush with $800M of it longs, open interest rose as price fell (a tell that fresh shorts are pressing the move), Deribit’s one-week put skew blew out to nearly 11 vol points as desks paid up for downside cover, and ETFs logged a sixth straight week of outflows near $6B. CryptoQuant called $60K a “genuine battleground” between weak and strong hands. And the PCE inflation print — the Fed’s preferred gauge — lands today, so the macro tape can move us either way before the chart does.

The patient play: let the sweep show its hand. Hold 60k and reclaim 62k on a close for the bullish B print and a push toward 63–64k, or lose 60k again and rotate down to the 59,000 wick where I start watching for the next setup. Respect the levels, not the rumour.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🔴 BTC Breaks Below $60K for the First Time Since October 2024

Bitcoin slipped under $60,000 in the overnight session — its first sub-$60K print since 24 October 2024 — as volume jumped roughly 40% and the apex coin extended a slide that now sits more than 50% below its record high. CryptoQuant called the level a “genuine battleground” between weak and strong hands and flagged a fresh wave of panic as some holders moved coins back to exchanges. The 59,000 wick is now the line bulls have to defend.

🟡 BTC Sweeps the 59s and Reclaims $60K — Liquidity Grab or the Next Leg Down?

The move down had the shape of a grab: price reached into the 59s, took out the 5 June equal-lows liquidity, then snapped back over 60k, leaving a double divergence on the oscillator. The sellers look tired down here, but nothing’s reclaimed yet — the lost $62K order block is resistance and the Quantum Reactor sits overhead. It only counts once price closes back above 62k. Until then it’s a bounce, not a base.

🔴 ~$1B Liquidated in 24 Hours — $800M of It Longs

The flush into the 59s wiped out close to $1 billion across the crypto market in a single day, about $800 million of it bullish long positions, according to Coinglass. Open interest actually ticked higher as spot fell — the classic tell that fresh shorts are pressing the move rather than longs quietly capitulating. That cuts both ways: it builds squeeze fuel if buyers reclaim the level.

🔵 PCE Inflation Report Lands Today — The Fed’s Preferred Gauge

All eyes turn to Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures print, the Fed’s favoured inflation measure, for the next read on the rate path. With the December hike repricing still fresh and risk assets jumpy, a hot number could keep the pressure on; a soft one gives the relief bounce room to breathe. Crypto has been trading the macro tape tick for tick, so this one matters.

🔴 Open Interest Rises as Price Falls — New Shorts Pile In

Across the majors the pattern is the same: open interest climbing while spot drops. BTC futures OI has held steady near 730K BTC for over a week, ETH OI rose to a two-week high as price fell from ~$1,780 to ~$1,650, and SOL futures OI hit a lifetime high — but funding and CVD are negative on all three. That combination means the move is being driven by fresh shorts leaning into the slide, not new longs stepping up.

🟢 Bitcoin OGs Slow Their Selling to a Two-Year Low

CryptoQuant data shows long-term holders — coins held five years or more — have cut their selling to the slowest pace since November 2024, with the 90-day average of spent OG coins down near 962 BTC. Around current prices these wallets are choosing to hold rather than sell, removing a major source of the overhead supply that capped rallies above $100K last year. Sell-side pressure is easing just as the tape looks its ugliest.

🟢 ETH Whales Buy the Dip — a16z and Bitmine Stack Sub-$1,700

Even as Ether ETFs bled ~$82M and ETH sagged near $1,600, the smart money stepped in: a wallet tied to a16z pulled 25,560 ETH (~$42.6M) off Binance, Tom Lee’s Bitmine grabbed another 35,138 ETH (~$58.65M) from BitGo and Kraken, and Sharplink staked a further 509 ETH. Conflicting signals — institutions trimming the ETF, whales accumulating the spot.

🟡 Ethereum Holds Near $1,600 as Whales Accumulate

ETH is changing hands around $1,600, some 21% below its 30-day high, but on-chain signals are stabilising: stablecoin netflows on Binance have returned to neutral, MACD histograms are contracting, and one regime model lifted its odds of a bullish shift to 45%. Two fresh wallets pulled a combined $58.8M of ETH off Kraken and BitGo. Defend $1,611–1,650 and a push back at $1,745 opens; lose it and $1,500 is in play.

🔴 Deribit Put Skew Widens — Traders Pay Up for Downside Cover

The one-week options skew on Deribit blew out to nearly 11 vol points in favour of puts, up from around 7 a day earlier, with the one-month skew widening too. In plain terms, traders are paying a premium for downside protection — a sign the desk is hedging for more pain rather than positioning for a bounce. Implied vol cooled slightly, but the skew tells the nervous story.

🔵 Sixth Straight Week of ETF Outflows — Near $6B Bled

US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a record 30-day net outflow north of $6 billion, a sixth consecutive week of redemptions that underlines how thin institutional demand has become. A $10.6B options expiry looms, and with order-book data showing buy orders edging back ahead of sell orders, the funds are the clearest drag on price until inflows turn. Watch whether the slowing outflow pace marks a base or just a pause.

🟢 Funding Rates Tick to a Three-Week High as Optimism Creeps Back

BTC funding rose to its highest in three weeks at ~7% annualised — neutral-to-bullish territory — and buy orders outnumbered sells on the order book for the first time since the weekend. It’s a small tell that some traders are willing to pay up to hold longs into the dip, even with the EMAs stacked overhead. Fragile, but worth watching.

🔵 CLARITY Act — BTC’s Next Move May Hinge on the Senate

The crypto market-structure bill is formally eligible for a full Senate floor vote after clearing the Banking Committee 15-9 in May. Traders are in wait-and-see mode in the low-$60Ks; a floor vote before the August recess is a binary catalyst — Polymarket prices 2026 passage near 67%. Compression like this often precedes a sharp move once the uncertainty breaks.

🟡 Nvidia-Led AI Rotation Keeps Pulling Capital From Crypto

The macro backdrop still isn’t crypto’s friend: capital keeps rotating into AI and megacap tech, with analysts pinning part of Bitcoin’s slide on money chasing those names over digital assets. A hawkish Fed and a higher-for-longer rate path leave zero-yield assets out of favour. Until risk appetite broadens back out, BTC is fighting the tape as much as the chart.

🔵 Countdown to the MICA Deadline — Europe’s Final Warning to Unauthorized Firms

European securities and markets authorities issued a final warning that unauthorized crypto firms must wind down or face enforcement, as the MICA transition runs out. Regulators flagged firms still operating without authorization in several member states, telling investors to verify a provider’s licensing before depositing. The hard compliance edge of Europe’s landmark crypto framework is arriving.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 12 — extreme fear — while BTC sweeps the 59s and tries to hold the reclaim of 60k. That gap between a deeply fearful mood and a market that just refused to stay broken is usually where bases quietly start, but I’m not front-running it. The setup is clean: swept low at 59,000–60,000 underneath, the lost 62,000–62,500 order block on top, and a double divergence on the oscillator saying the downside is tiring. The reaction is the whole trade — hold 60k and reclaim 62k on a close for the bullish B print and a push toward 63–64k; lose 60k again and the 59,000 wick goes first, then open air below. Under the hood the tape is heavy: ~$1B liquidated with $800M of it longs, open interest rising as price falls, Deribit put skew widening as desks hedge, and a sixth week of ETF outflows near $6B. But the counter-tells are real too — OG selling has dried up to a two-year low, whales kept buying ETH’s dip, and funding ticked to a three-week high. PCE inflation lands today, so the macro tape can swing us before the chart does. So it’s a watch-and-react day: respect the levels, wait for the B print, keep size sensible, and if we get the reaction I want we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Bitcoin is boxed in, plain and simple — the floor is the order block right under us at ~$62,000, where yesterday’s low tagged 61,926 and held, while the ceiling is the descending diagonal trend plus the Quantum Reactor curve at $63,900–$64,200. A hidden bullish divergence on the oscillator hints the sellers are running low on fuel down here, but it’s a heads-up, not a green light — nothing’s been reclaimed yet, so expect chop between roughly 62,000 and 64,000. There’s no edge until BTC either reclaims 64k on a retest (which opens $64.8–65.5K, then $66–67K) or loses 62k on a close (which exposes the $60.8–61.3K block and the 60,000 EG zone beneath). The macro tape is heavy: the Fed turned hawkish at Warsh’s first meeting, lifting December hike odds to about 77%, a sharp drop in SpaceX shares dragged tech and crypto into a risk-off slide from near $67K to the low-$60Ks, and spot ETFs logged a sixth straight week of outflows for $5.94B cumulative. Fear and Greed sits at 17 — deep fear — and a $10.9B options expiry looms on 27 June, so respect the box, trade the edges, and keep size sensible.

Your chart outlook and summary for the day.

🟢 BULLISH

Bulls need a clean punch through the descending diagonal trend and the Quantum Reactor around 64,000–64,200, then a retest that holds rather than rejects. Get that and the door opens to the order block above at ~64,800–65,500, with 66,000–67,000 in view if momentum carries. The hidden bull div is the early tell — but it only matters once price backs it up with a close above the trendline.

🟡 NEUTRAL

Price is boxed in and the range is still in play. Floor is the order block right under us at ~62,000 — yesterday’s low tagged 61,926 and held. Ceiling is the descending diagonal trend plus the Quantum Reactor curve, both sitting around 63,900–64,200. Until one side gives way, this is a range potentially unfolding: trade the edges, don’t chase the middle. The hidden bullish divergence on the oscillator (yellow line) says the sellers are running low on fuel down here, but it’s a heads-up, not a green light — nothing’s been reclaimed yet. Expect chop between roughly 62,000 and 64,000.

🔴 BEARISH

Simple line in the sand: lose the order block below and close under ~62,000 (61,926 is the marker). That cracks the floor and exposes the lower order block at 60,800–61,300, with the 60,000 EG zone beneath. Below 62k, the divergence is void and sellers stay in control.

📋 SUMMARY

Ranging, plain and simple — 62,000 floor, ~64,000 ceiling. Hidden bull div hints the downside is tiring, but the Quantum Reactor and diagonal trend are capping every bounce. No edge until BTC either reclaims 64k on a retest (bullish) or loses 62k on a close (bearish). For now, respect the box. Lets stay on this all day in Discord and watch closely to see if the range play breaks in one direction.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — DEEP FEAR AT 17 WHILE THE FLOOR HOLDS: BASE OR BREAKDOWN?

Fear and Greed at 17 while BTC keeps defending 61,926 is the cleanest fork on the board, so it’s worth being straight about both sides:

🔹 The constructive bits. The floor has held — yesterday’s low tagged 61,926 and bounced — and there’s a hidden bullish divergence on the oscillator saying the sellers are running low on fuel down here. Whales added roughly $410M into the slide, Strategy and Strive kept stacking, and short-liquidation leverage is now stacked nearly $26B above $62K versus under $2B of long exposure below, so a squeeze is the asymmetric setup if buyers turn up. Cycle Bands flashed oversold for the first time since 2023, and the 200-week moving average near $62,457 is doing its job as the line of last defence. Fear this deep while price refuses to break is usually how bases start to form.

🔹 The reasons to stay patient. Nothing’s been reclaimed yet — the Quantum Reactor and the diagonal trend are capping every bounce, and a clean 4H close under $62,000 voids the divergence and exposes $60.8–61.3K then the $60K EG zone. The macro driver turned hostile: a hawkish Warsh Fed pushed December hike odds to ~77%, Wintermute warned tighter policy can throttle the ETF, stablecoin and treasury channels that feed crypto, and a SpaceX-led tech selloff is leaning on every high-growth asset. A $10.9B options expiry lands 27 June, and ETH is the weak twin near $1,665 with bears owning the tape.

The patient play: let the box show its hand. Reclaim $64K on a retest and push for $64.8–65.5K then $66–67K, or lose $62K on a close and rotate down to the lower order block where I start outlining our next long. Trade the edges, not the middle — and not the rumour.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟡 BTC Boxed in the $62K–$64K Range as the Floor Holds at 61,926

Bitcoin is trading inside a tight box: the floor is the order block at ~$62,000, where yesterday’s low tagged 61,926 and held, while the ceiling is the descending diagonal trend plus the Quantum Reactor curve at $63,900–$64,200. A hidden bullish divergence hints the sellers are tiring, but nothing’s been reclaimed yet. Reclaim $64K on a retest and the door opens; lose $62K on a close and the divergence is void.

🔴 Fed Turns Hawkish — December Hike Odds Jump to 77% as Warsh Removes Easing Bias

At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, the Fed held rates steady but stripped out any easing bias and lifted its median 2026 outlook to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine of 18 officials now expecting at least one hike this year. Markets repriced fast — December hike odds jumped to about 77% from roughly 24% a month ago. Wintermute warned the tighter stance could slow the liquidity reaching crypto through ETFs, stablecoins and treasuries.

🔴 Bitcoin Tests Two-Week Low at $62K as the SpaceX-Led Tech Selloff Spills Over

BTC slid in sympathy with tech stocks, dropping toward its two-week low near $62,000 as a Nasdaq risk-off wave bled into crypto. A sharp fall in SpaceX shares dented appetite across high-growth names, and analysts flag a possible head-and-shoulders on the 4H with a neckline at $61–62K. Hold that zone and the medium-term rebound case stays alive; lose it and $55–56K comes into view.

🔴 Sixth Straight Week of ETF Outflows — $5.94B Bled, $48M Liquidated

US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a sixth consecutive week of net redemptions, bringing the cumulative drain near $5.94B — the largest institutional outflow wave since launch — though 23 June did see a $39.2M inflow. Over the past 24 hours roughly $48M in BTC positions were wiped out, 82.7% of it longs, as leveraged bulls got flushed. The 200-week moving average near $62,457 is the level holding the line.

🟢 $26B in Short Liquidation Leverage Stacked Above $62K — Squeeze Risk Builds

Coinglass data shows nearly $26B in short-liquidation leverage sitting above Bitcoin’s $62,000 price, versus well under $2B of long exposure below — a lopsided setup that builds short-squeeze fuel if buyers push. Shorts lost $218M in 24h, more than double the longs, including a single $82M OKX position. Cycle Bands flashed oversold for the first time since 2023, hinting at a possible base — but $60K stays the line that flips it bearish.

🟢 Whales Add $410M Even as Bitcoin Posts a 9% June Decline

Despite Bitcoin’s rough month, on-chain data shows large wallets accumulating — roughly $410M in net whale buying landed during the slide, the kind of quiet positioning that often runs counter to a fearful tape. It mirrors corporate accumulation: Strategy added 520 BTC and Strive bought 759 BTC at a ~$65,850 average. Conviction money keeps stepping in while retail capitulates.

🔴 Arthur Hayes Sees a $40,000 Bitcoin Bottom Within Six Months

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes told an interview he expects Bitcoin to bottom around $40,000 within six months as liquidity tightens, before the next leg higher — a deliberately contrarian call into a fearful tape. Hayes frames it as a drawdown to accumulate into rather than the end of the cycle, but $40K is a long way under spot and a reminder that not every big name sees the floor here.

🟡 Ethereum Foundation Cuts Budget 40% and Staff 20% — Solana Founder Calls It Bullish

Vitalik Buterin confirmed the Ethereum Foundation will cut its budget 40% and headcount 20% in a major reset, the same week co-executive director Hsiao-Wei Wang resigned — the ninth senior departure since January. Solana’s Anatoly Yakovenko framed the leaner structure as bullish, arguing a slimmer Foundation pushes builders toward self-sufficiency. The market read it as turmoil all the same.

🔴 $170M in Ether Longs Liquidated as ETH Slides Toward $1,500 — Is It Doomed?

A leveraged-long flush wiped out about $170M in ETH positions as the market tumbled, dragging Ether toward a 14-month low near $1,500 before a bounce. The taker sell flow and falling open interest point to forced deleveraging rather than fresh conviction shorting — ugly in the moment, but the kind of capitulation that has marked local bottoms before. The $1,618 level is the near-term line.

🔵 Liquidity Outlook Darkens as the Fed Pivot Tightens the Taps

Wintermute says the hawkish Fed turn has created a tougher backdrop for assets that lean on steady inflows, since tighter policy can throttle the three channels that feed crypto — ETFs, stablecoins and digital-asset treasuries. With equities shut for Juneteenth, crypto absorbed the repricing instantly: BTC fell 3.8% on the week from near $67K to the low-$60Ks, triggering about $600M in long liquidations versus under $90M in shorts.

🔵 Nvidia Hits $4.87T as Capital Chases AI Over Crypto

Nvidia became the world’s largest company at a $4.87T market cap, a milestone that doubles as a tell for crypto: Deutsche Bank pins part of Bitcoin’s slide on capital rotating out of digital assets and into AI and megacap tech. With a hawkish Fed and zero-yield assets out of favour, the “Bitcoin’s star fades” narrative has teeth — until risk appetite broadens back out, BTC fights the tape.

🟢 Ripple Completes XRP Lending Re-Audit as XRP Holds Its Top-10 Decade

Ripple has finished a comprehensive re-audit of its XRP Ledger lending protocol, a security clean-up aimed at firming up confidence in on-chain credit. It lands as fresh data underlines XRP’s staying power — the only altcoin besides Bitcoin to hold a top-10 market-cap spot every year since 2014. The token trades back above $1.13 but remains the cleanest major laggard until it reclaims $1.25.

🔵 7 Days Til the MICA Deadline — Europe’s Final Warning to Unauthorized Firms

European securities and markets authorities issued a final warning that unauthorized crypto firms have a week to wind down or face enforcement, as the MICA transition runs out. Regulators flagged firms still operating without authorization in several member states, telling investors to verify a provider’s licensing before depositing. The hard compliance edge of Europe’s landmark framework is arriving.

🔵 Treasury Targets a Workaround as FinCEN Moves on a Scam Crackdown

The US Treasury is targeting a sanctions-evasion workaround while FinCEN steps up action against crypto fraud networks, part of a broader push to choke off the rails behind pig-butchering and cross-border scam operations. For users it’s another reminder to treat unsolicited “investment” pitches and unfamiliar platforms with hard skepticism.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 17 — deep in the fear zone — while BTC keeps defending the 61,926 floor. That gap between a firm floor and a fearful mood is usually where bases quietly start, but I’m not front-running it. The setup is a clean box: order block at ~$62,000 underneath, the descending diagonal trend and Quantum Reactor at $63,900–$64,200 on top, and a hidden bull div on the oscillator saying the downside is tiring. The reaction is the whole trade — reclaim $64K on a retest and we target $64.8–65.5K then $66–67K; lose $62K on a close and the divergence voids, opening $60.8–61.3K and the $60K EG zone below. Under the hood the tape is heavy: a hawkish Warsh Fed with hike odds near 77%, a SpaceX-led tech selloff leaning on risk, a sixth week of ETF outflows ($5.94B), and a $10.9B options expiry on 27 June. But whales added $410M into the slide and shorts are stacked nearly $26B above us, so the squeeze is the asymmetric setup if buyers show. So it’s a watch-and-react day: respect the box, trade the edges, keep size sensible, and if we get the reaction I want we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Bitcoin pushed up off the $63,000 POC, reclaimed the green zone and tagged roughly $65,600 before easing back toward $63,800 — so the higher-low structure is intact while we hold the zone near $64,000, but the 4H oscillator has rolled over from the top. This is the reaction that decides it: hold the green zone and we open the path back toward $65,200 then the $67,000 order block, lose the $63K POC and the $60–61K order block becomes the magnet below. Fear and Greed sits at 23 — still fear even as price holds firm, the kind of gap that usually means the tape is ahead of the mood. The macro tape is the live wire today: Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again as the Switzerland talks fractured, and crypto defied the “Black Monday” calls by holding near $64K. Under the hood it’s mixed but improving — ETF outflows slowed sharply to ~$540M from $5.5B, funding climbed to a three-week high, and three straight weekly closes above $63K point to a healthier, deleveraged structure — though a $10.9B options expiry on 27 June and a nearing ETH weekly death cross keep us honest. Same plan as ever: hold higher lows and the bull case lives, trade the reaction at the level, keep size sensible.

Your morning outlook options !

🟢 BULLISH

BTC pushed up off the POC around 63,000, reclaimed the green zone and tagged 65,200 before easing back — so the higher-low structure is intact and buyers stay in control while we hold the green zone near 64,000. The 4H oscillator has rolled over from the top, so a shallow pullback that holds up here is exactly what you want before the next leg. The RSI is very much hovering around the middle point. If we keep price action above the POC we can push back to the 65,200 level and then maybe the 67,000 OB.

🟡 NEUTRAL

All the candles on the whole screen are starting to look like one big range — we’re bouncing between the top order block up near 67,000 and the bottom order block down at 60,000–61,000, with the marked green zones acting as the extension areas at either edge where price overshoots before getting pulled back in. Right now we’re mid-range, digesting the push into the green zone with momentum cooling off the top, so there’s no edge in forcing a direction here. Until we get a decisive break and hold outside one of those order blocks, the honest play is to treat the range as the range and build bias hour by hour rather than committing. The 63,000 POC is the line that splits the range down the middle — hold above it and the upper half stays in play toward 65,200 and the top OB; lose it and the lower half opens back toward the bottom OB. Light volume only reinforces this; ranges like this tend to grind and chop until one side finally gets the volume to break out.

🔴 BEARISH

The rejection from ~65,200 with the oscillator rolling over leaves the door open to lose the green zone and drop back into the POC at 63,000 — which on its own is still a healthy backtest rather than outright bearish. The bear case only really activates if we lose the POC and start trading down through 62,000–62,800 toward the 60,000–61,000 order block, where the bigger 247K long-liquidation pool sits. If that liquidity gets run we play it level by level and reassess from the order block. Worth noting we can still tap that OB below and stay constructive as long as we react hard back to the upside.

📋 SUMMARY

BTC reclaimed the green zone and tagged ~65,200 before pulling back to 64,000, with 4H momentum rolling over from the top. Higher lows are holding above the POC at 63,000, so the bias stays constructive — defend the green zone and 65.2K then 67K is the target; lose the POC and the 60–61K order block becomes the magnet. Volume’s still on the lighter side, so let the reaction in the green zone confirm before reading too much into it. We are going to have to watch this closely today as there’s a lot of neutral price action and shallow movement.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — DOES THE GREEN ZONE FLIP TO SUPPORT, OR REJECT BACK TO THE POC?

Price reclaimed the green zone and tagged $65.6K with fear still at 23 is the cleanest fork on the board, so it’s worth being straight about both sides:

🔹 The constructive bits. We’ve got higher lows holding above the $63K POC, a clean reclaim of the zone, and the plumbing is quietly improving — ETF outflows slowed to ~$540M from $5.5B, funding ticked to a three-week high as longs leaned back in, and open interest has fallen ~19.5% off its 1 June peak while price held, which is leverage flushing rather than fresh selling. Long-term-holder supply just hit a record 12.42M BTC. Fear lagging a firm price is usually how bottoms start to form.

🔹 The reasons to stay patient. Volume is still light and the 4H oscillator has rolled over from the top, so the reclaim has to prove itself. Iran shut Hormuz again and the Switzerland talks walked out, so an oil shock is one headline away. A $10.9B options expiry on 27 June can whip the tape, prediction markets are pricing a 70% chance of a $55K tag, and put demand is running double calls. ETH is staring down a weekly death cross. The macro driver has quietly shifted from geopolitics to a higher-for-longer Warsh Fed.

The patient play: let the green zone show its hand. Defend it and push for $65.2K then $67K, or reject and rotate back to the $63K POC — and a clean reaction off the $60–61K order block below is where I start outlining our next long. Trade the reaction, not the rumour.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟢 BTC Reclaims the $64K Green Zone, Tags $65.6K, Then Eases Back

Bitcoin pushed off the $63,000 POC, reclaimed the green marked zone and tagged roughly $65,600 before easing back toward $63,800. Higher lows are intact while we hold the zone near $64,000, but the 4H oscillator has rolled over from the top — a shallow pullback that holds is exactly what you want before the next leg. Hold above the POC and we push back to $65,200 then the $67,000 order block.

🔴 Iran Shuts the Strait of Hormuz Again as Switzerland Talks Fracture

Iran’s IRGC declared Hormuz closed to traffic on 20 June and the US–Iran delegation walked out of the Switzerland talks over fresh Trump threats on Lebanon and the strait. Vessel transits have collapsed and analysts braced for a “Black Monday” risk-off open — but crypto hasn’t played along, with BTC holding near $64,000. The headline risk stays very much live.

🟢 Funding Climbs to a Three-Week High as Leverage Demand Returns

The annualised funding rate on BTC perpetuals rose to about 7%, the highest in nearly three weeks, as bullish bets picked up. That’s still inside the neutral 6–12% band, so it reads as growing confidence rather than froth — leveraged longs leaning in after the reclaim, not chasing a blow-off. A constructive tell, as long as spot demand backs it up.

🟢 ETF Outflows Slow Sharply — $540M in Two Weeks vs $5.5B Before

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now bled for a sixth straight week, but the pace has cooled hard: outflows ran $5.5B between mid-May and 11 June, then just ~$540M over the past two weeks, with cumulative redemptions near $5.9B. It’s still a net drain, but a slowing one — the read flips constructive the day those flows turn green and hold.

🔵 Treasury Freezes $344M in Iranian Crypto as Tehran Demands BTC for Hormuz Tolls

Iran has been charging roughly $1 per barrel to transit Hormuz — payable in Bitcoin, USDT or yuan — as sanctions shut traditional banking channels. The US Treasury has now frozen about $344M in digital assets tied to Iranian wallets, a reminder that nation-states increasingly treat crypto as a tool of economic warfare and that OFAC is watching cross-border flows.

🟢 Morgan Stanley Files ETH and SOL ETFs at 0.14% With Staking — Undercuts Everyone

Morgan Stanley filed amended S-1s for spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs at a 0.14% fee — undercutting every US rival in both categories — with staking that returns 95% of rewards to shareholders. The Bitcoin ETF fee war has now opened a second front, pressuring Grayscale and Franklin Templeton to cut costs or get left behind on price.

🔵 Ethlabs Launches as a New Ethereum Steward — Backed by BitMine, SharpLink, Lubin

Five former Ethereum Foundation researchers have launched Ethlabs, an R&D lab to ready the network for institutional adoption, funded by ETH treasuries BitMine and SharpLink alongside co-founder Joe Lubin. It lands as a rare structural positive cutting against ETH’s leadership-exodus narrative this month.

🔴 $10.9B Options Expiry Looms 27 June — Myriad Prices 70% Odds of $55K

A $10.9B Bitcoin options expiry lands on 27 June into a market still hunting for direction, and observers warn it could amplify short-term volatility. Prediction market Myriad is pricing a 70% chance BTC tags $55,000, up five points on the week, while put demand on 22 June ran more than double calls. Downside protection is in demand even as price rebounds.

🟢 Three Weekly Closes Above $63K as Leverage Flushes Out

BTC has logged three straight weekly closes above $63,000 while open interest fell ~19.5% from its 1 June peak — a deleveraging that outpaced price and points to a healthier structure rather than fresh short pressure. Long-term-holder realised supply hit a record 12.42M BTC, and the seller-exhaustion metric has stayed dormant for 1,256 days. Coins keep concentrating in patient hands.

🟡 Oil and Yields Decouple — the Market Pivots From Hormuz to the Fed

The two-year Treasury yield and crude have decoupled after months of moving together on the Iran war — oil rolled over while yields push higher, a sign the market’s focus has shifted from geopolitics to Fed rate-hike risk. With a Warsh-led Fed signalling higher-for-longer and the dot plot nudged to 3.8%, the backdrop for zero-yield risk assets stays heavy until something gives.

🔴 ETH Holds $1.7K but a Weekly Death Cross Nears

Ether is changing hands near $1,730, down about 42% year-to-date and trading below its 20-, 50- and 100-day EMAs as a death cross approaches on the weekly chart. Lose the $1,763 double-bottom support and analysts flag $1,500 then $1,000; only a reclaim above the $2,460 neckline invalidates the bearish structure. Supply is still the problem.

🔵 JPMorgan Launches JLTXX Tokenized Money Fund on Ethereum

JPMorgan has gone live with JLTXX, a tokenized money-market fund settling on Ethereum — another brick in the real-world-asset wall and fresh institutional demand for ETH as a settlement layer. It dovetails with BitMine’s ~5.6M staked ETH throwing off an estimated $219M a year, quiet structural demand building under a weak tape.

🟣 Solana Holds Relative Strength as the 0.14% ETF Race Heats Up

Solana remains one of the few majors with real relative strength, and Morgan Stanley’s 0.14% staking ETF filing puts it front and centre — native SOL staking yields run well above Ethereum’s, making a yield-bearing SOL product especially compelling. Outperformance while BTC chops is the kind of leadership worth filing away for when sentiment turns.

🟡 XRP Back Above $1.13 but Still the Clear Laggard

XRP has reclaimed the $1.12 support and trades back above $1.13 after testing lower, but it remains the cleanest laggard of the majors, repeatedly stalling near $1.25. Until it reclaims and holds that level, the path of least resistance stays sideways-to-lower while Bitcoin sets the broader tape.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed sits at 23 — still firmly in the fear zone — even as BTC reclaims the green zone and tags $65.6K before easing back. That gap between a firmer price and a fearful mood is usually constructive: the tape is ahead of sentiment. The setup is clean. We reclaimed the $64K green zone and are holding higher lows above the $63K POC, but the 4H oscillator has rolled over from the top, so the reaction is the tell — defend the zone and we target $65.2K then $67K; lose the POC and we rotate back down, with the $60–61K order block the deeper magnet below where the bigger 247K long-liquidation pool sits. Under the hood it’s improving but mixed: ETF outflows slowed to ~$540M, funding hit a three-week high and leverage has flushed with three weekly closes above $63K, but Iran shut Hormuz again, a $10.9B options expiry looms on 27 June, and the macro driver has shifted to a higher-for-longer Warsh Fed. So it’s a watch-and-react day: let the level show its hand, keep size sensible, and if we get the reaction I want we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

Bitcoin is pressing into the green zone around $64,000 with the descending anchored VWAP sitting right on top as near-term resistance, holding higher lows above the $63,000 POC. This is the reaction that decides it: reclaim the VWAP and we open the path back toward the $67,000 supply zone, reject here and we print a lower high and rotate back to the POC, with the $60–61K order block the deeper magnet below. Fear and Greed has ticked down to 20 — deeper fear even as price holds firm, which tells you sentiment still hasn’t caught up with the tape. Under the hood it’s mixed: ETFs just posted a record $6.4B 30-day outflow and the Coinbase premium has been negative a record 44 days, but whale wallets sit at their highest since March, Japan’s warming to crypto, and the US–Iran summit ended “positive” — though a renewed Hormuz threat keeps the macro tape twitchy. Same plan as ever: hold higher lows and the bull case lives, trade the reaction at the level, keep size sensible into thin weekend volume.

Your morning BTC chart and outlook.

🟢 BULLISH

BTC is pressing into the green marked zone around 64,000 and needs to reclaim it to keep the bullish structure intact. Price is sitting right beneath the descending anchored VWAP, which is acting as near-term resistance — a clean break and hold above it would open the path back toward the 67,000 supply zone. As long as we hold above the POC at 63,000 and continue printing higher lows, the bullish case remains valid. The focus now is whether buyers can absorb that overhead VWAP and turn the green zone into support. If we do reject down then we will have make a lower high and the bull case will be on hold.

🟡 NEUTRAL

The boxes define the key zones, and price is currently caught between the 63,000 POC below and the green zone overhead. Before calling anything neutral, we need to see how this reaction at the anchored VWAP resolves. If we get rejected here but hold the POC, we’re range-bound between roughly 63,000 and 64,000 — building a bias hour by hour rather than committing either way. A failure to break the VWAP, paired with the oscillator rolling over from the top, would keep us in this chop until one side gives way. More zoomed out we can also be range bound neutrally between the OB below and the OB above.

🔴 BEARISH

We’ve pushed up into resistance slightly stronger than expected, but rejection from the anchored VWAP here leaves room to revisit the 63,000 POC — which would still be constructive rather than outright bearish. The bearish case only really activates if we lose that POC and start trading back toward the 60,000–61,000 green zone below, where the larger liquidity sits. If that happens, we play it level by level and reassess our next move from there. Its worth noting we can still tap the OB below and remain bullish as long as we react hard to the upside.

📋 SUMMARY

BTC is testing the green zone around 64,000 with the descending anchored VWAP capping price overhead. We’re holding higher lows for now, but the reaction at the VWAP is the tell — reclaim it and we target 67,000, reject and we likely rotate back to the 63,000 POC, with the $60–61K order block the deeper magnet below where the larger liquidity sits. Weekend volume is still light, so keep eyes on how this resolves before reading too much into the move. Trade the reaction at the level, not the prediction, and we’ll plan it together in Discord, legends.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 DOES THE GREEN BOX FLIP TO SUPPORT, OR REJECT BACK TO THE POC?

Price pressed into the green zone with fear ticking down to 20 is the cleanest fork on the board, so it’s worth being straight about both sides:

🔹 The constructive bits. We’ve got a higher low holding above the $63K POC, momentum leaning up into the bounce, and whales doing the opposite of the panic — wallets holding 1,000+ BTC are at their highest since March, Glassnode’s seller-exhaustion signal is elevated, and Japan’s corporate pension and Osaka adoption headlines add a slow structural bid. Fear lagging a firm price is usually how bottoms start to form.

🔹 The reasons to stay patient. It’s still light weekend volume, so moves can deceive. The leg looks more like short covering than fresh conviction — open interest dipped while price rose and liquidations cooled 51%. ETFs just posted a record $6.4B 30-day outflow, the Coinbase premium has been negative a record 44 straight days flagging weak US demand, and the macro tape (sticky inflation, a hawkish Warsh Fed, the on-again Hormuz risk) hasn’t handed us a clean catalyst.

The patient play: let the green box show its hand at the VWAP. Absorb and push for $67K, or reject and rotate back to the $63K POC — and a clean reaction off the $60–61K order block below is where I start outlining our next long. Trade the reaction, not the rumour.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟡 BTC Presses the $64K Green Zone Beneath the Anchored VWAP

Bitcoin is changing hands around $63,900, pressing the green marked zone at $64,000 with the descending anchored VWAP capping it as near-term resistance, while holding higher lows above the $63,000 POC. It’s the reaction at that VWAP that decides it: break and hold opens the path to the $67,000 supply zone, a rejection prints a lower high and rotates us back to the POC. Weekend volume is light — watch and react.

🔵 Bitcoin ETFs Post a Record $6.4B 30-Day Outflow

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged their largest 30-day net outflow since launching in 2024 — about $6.35B per Galaxy Research, the worst across all 582 rolling windows on record and a near-mirror of the +$6.35B inflows at the 2024 peak. Last week alone added ~$227M of redemptions, a sixth straight week of outflows. The marginal institutional bid is thin, and the read only flips when those flows turn green and stay there.

🔴 Coinbase Premium Negative a Record 44 Days as US Demand Stays Weak

The Coinbase Premium Index — the price gap between Coinbase and Binance — has sat negative for 44 consecutive days, its longest streak on record. BTC is trading cheaper in the US than offshore, a classic tell of soft institutional demand and capital leaving the US tape. Retail on Binance is holding the bid up; the read flips constructive only when that premium climbs back above zero and holds.

🟢 Whale Wallets Hit Highest Since March as Big Holders Keep Stacking

Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC now control roughly 7.17 million coins — the highest since 14 March — as large holders add into the fear. Glassnode’s seller-exhaustion signal is elevated and exchange balances keep drifting lower. Deep-fear readings are exactly where patient capital tends to accumulate, quietly absorbing supply while leverage and ETFs capitulate.

🟡 Strategy’s STRC Slips to ~$87 as Saylor’s Funding Model Draws Scrutiny

STRC — the perpetual preferred stock Strategy uses to help fund its Bitcoin buys — has drifted from its $100 par toward roughly $87, putting a fresh spotlight on the leverage behind the largest corporate stack (846,000+ BTC). It hasn’t stopped the buying — Strategy still added 1,587 BTC at $63K last week — but it’s a reminder the treasury bid leans on financing the market is now pricing more carefully.

🟢 US–Iran Summit Ends “Positive” — Hormuz Reopening on the Table, but a Renewed Threat Clouds It

The Lake Lucerne summit in Switzerland closed in a “positive and constructive” tone, with a roadmap toward a final deal in 60 days, sanctions relief and a lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade — briefly pushing BTC back over $64K. The catch: a renewed order to re-close Hormuz revives the very risk the deal was meant to settle, keeping the macro tape twitchy.

🟢 Japan Backs Crypto — Pension Fund and Corporates Warm to Digital Assets

A nationwide Japanese corporate pension fund is set to invest in crypto from the next fiscal year, with around 1% of managed assets earmarked, while Osaka adds a crypto ATM and Tokyo pushes for clearer rules to support innovation. A quiet but real adoption signal cutting against this week’s outflow story — the kind of structural demand that compounds.

🔴 Ethereum’s Biggest Sandwich Bot Drained of $7.5M in Ironic Exploit

Blockaid says an attacker tricked the infamous jaredfromsubway.eth MEV bot into approving fake trading routes, then used those approvals to drain $7.5M in WETH, USDC and USDT — a rare case of the predator becoming the prey. A reminder that approval hygiene matters even for the sharpest on-chain operators.

🔴 Taiko Bridge Exploit Drains Over $1M from the ERC20 Vault

Security firm Blockaid flagged a vulnerability in Taiko’s cross-chain bridge that attackers used to drain more than $1M from its ERC20 Vault — the second on-chain exploit making headlines this weekend. Bridge risk keeps proving the weakest link in DeFi; size sensibly and check what you’re approving before chasing cross-chain yield.

🟠 Mining Difficulty Set to Drop ~20% as Miner Capitulation Deepens

Difficulty has slid roughly 20% from its all-time high — the steepest retreat from a record since the 2021 China ban — with the next adjustment due around 27 June. With ~20% of rigs now unprofitable and public miners having sold 32,000+ BTC in Q1 to cover costs, weaker hashprice is forcing older machines offline. It’s the network’s natural way of resetting after a hard leg lower.

🔵 ETH Holds $1.7K With Eyes on a Reclaim as Underperformance Persists

Ether is changing hands near $1,740 after a modest bounce, still lagging Bitcoin, with analysts warning of another selling wave unless it reclaims and holds higher — the longer-term $4.6K path stays on the table only if it does. Tom Lee’s BitMine leaned into the weakness with a ~$213M ETH buy. For now supply is the problem and ETH is taking its cue from a heavy BTC tape.

🔴 XRP Slips 3% After Losing $1.15 Support as the Breakout Fades

Heavy selling pushed XRP back below the $1.15 support zone, down about 3% and reinforcing a downtrend that has repeatedly stalled rallies near $1.25. It’s the cleaner laggard of the majors right now — until it reclaims that level, the path of least resistance stays lower while Bitcoin decides the broader tape.

🟣 SOL Holds Relative Strength Near $73 as the Rotation Lingers

Solana remains one of the few majors with real relative strength, holding near $73 with steady ETF inflows and DeFi activity underpinning the bid even as BTC and ETH funds bleed. Outperformance while Bitcoin chops is constructive — the kind of leadership worth filing away for when broad sentiment finally turns.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed has ticked down to 20 — deeper into the fear zone — even as BTC holds the low $64Ks and presses the green box from below. That gap between price and sentiment is usually a constructive sign: the tape is firmer than the mood. The setup is clean. We’re pressing the $64K green zone with the descending anchored VWAP capping it, holding higher lows above the $63K POC. It’s the reaction at that VWAP that decides it — reclaim it and we target $67K; reject and we print a lower high and rotate back to the POC, with the $60–61K order block the deeper magnet below. Under the hood it stays mixed: whales sit at their highest since March and Japan is warming to crypto, but ETFs just bled a record $6.4B over 30 days, the Coinbase premium has been negative a record 44 days, and the macro tape — sticky inflation, a hawkish Warsh Fed, the on-again Hormuz risk — hasn’t handed us a clean catalyst. So it’s a watch-and-react day: let the level show its hand, keep size sensible into thin weekend volume, and if we get the reaction I want we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

Not Financial Advice — Come and join us at https://charthackers.com

## TLDR Summary

The bounce has done its job so far. Bitcoin has put in a higher low off the low $62Ks and climbed back to around $64,300, running straight into its first real resistance — the green box at $64,000–64,500 with the declining anchored VWAP sitting right on top of it. Momentum is leaning with the bulls but it’s stretched into the move, so this is the zone that decides it: break and hold for a run at the $66–67K order block, or reject here, lose $62K, and finally flush into the $60–61K order block I’ve been waiting on. Fear and Greed is steady at 23 — still fear, which tells you sentiment hasn’t caught up with price. Under the hood it’s mixed: ETFs just bled a record $6.4B over 30 days, but whale wallets are at their highest since March and Strategy keeps buying the dip. Either way the plan’s the same — hold higher lows and the bullish setup lives, and a push back up out of that lower block is where I start looking for our next long. Weekend volume, so watch and react, keep size sensible.

Your BTC Chart and summary for today.

🟢 BULLISH

The bounce has done its job so far — we’ve put in a higher low off the low $62Ks and price has climbed back up to test the green box at $64,000–64,500 with the anchored VWAP sitting right on top of it. That’s the first real resistance on this leg. A clean break and hold above this band keeps the structure constructive and opens the path back toward the $66K–67K order block overhead. Momentum is leaning with the bulls here, so as long as we keep printing higher lows the bias stays up — the job now is to see whether this level flips from resistance to support on a retest.

🟡 NEUTRAL

This is the zone that decides it. Price is into the green box and the anchored VWAP at the same time, and momentum is stretched to the upside on the bounce, so a stall here would be no surprise. If we chop sideways under $64,500 without losing $62K, we’re simply building the base and we manage it hour by hour — no need to force a read. Let the level show its hand: reject and fade, or absorb and push. Until one of those resolves we’re still in the process of confirming bias rather than chasing it.

🔴 BEARISH

The bounce ran straight into resistance with momentum already stretched, so a rejection here is very possible for sure. If we get knocked back off the green box and the anchored VWAP, lose $62K, and start printing lower lows, that finally opens the door to the move I’ve been watching for — a flush into the $60K–61K order block below. That’s not a bias flip, it’s the bearish scenario we’ve mentioned for a few days: into the green box, then manage it level by level and look for the push back up. Lose the order block and we step lower and reassess.

📋 SUMMARY

The relief bounce extended overnight and we’re now into the first proper resistance — the green box at $64–64.5K with the declining anchored VWAP right on it, momentum stretched into the top. Two clean paths from here: break and hold for a run at the $66–67K order block, or reject here, lose $62K, and finally flush into the $60–61K order block I’ve been waiting on. Either way the plan’s the same — hold higher lows and the bullish setup lives, and a push back up out of that lower order block is where I start looking for our next long. Weekend volume still in play, so watch and react, keep size sensible, and we’ll plan it together in Discord, legends.

WE ALSO NOW HAVE A FULL BTC REPORT AVAILABLE IN HACKERS FOR THE DAY — WHAT MAY HAPPEN LATER / KEY INSIGHTS — COME AND JOIN AND FIND MY CHANNEL SECTION — CHAOSS

🔭 SPECIAL — IS THE BOUNCE READY TO BREAK OUT, OR DOES IT STALL HERE?

Price into the green box with fear still pinned at 23 is the cleanest fork we’ve had in a while, so it’s worth being honest about both sides:

🔹 The constructive bits. We’ve got a higher low off the low $62Ks, momentum leaning up, and a symmetrical triangle coiling on the 4H. Whale wallets holding 1,000+ BTC are at their highest since March, Glassnode’s seller-exhaustion signal is elevated, Strategy added another 1,587 BTC at $63K and Marathon bought 1,000 — the patient cohort is leaning the other way to the panic, and fear lagging price is usually how bottoms start.

🔹 The reasons to stay cautious. It’s the weekend, so volume is thin and moves can be deceiving. This leg looks like short covering — open interest fell ~3.36% while price rose — rather than fresh long conviction. ETFs just posted a record $6.4B 30-day outflow, mining difficulty is set to reset lower, and the macro tape (sticky inflation, a hawkish Fed, the US–Iran standoff) hasn’t handed us a fresh catalyst.

The patient play: let the green box show its hand. Absorb and push for $66–67K, or reject and flush into the $60–61K order block — and a push back up out of that block is the setup that outlines our next long. Trade the reaction, not the rumour.

📰 TODAY’S KEY STORIES

🟡 BTC Tests $64–64.5K as the Relief Bounce Runs Into First Resistance

Bitcoin has climbed back to around $64,300 after a higher low off the low $62Ks, and the bounce has run straight into its first real resistance — the green box at $64,000–64,500 with the declining anchored VWAP on top. Momentum leans with the bulls but is stretched. A clean break and hold keeps it constructive toward $66–67K; a rejection puts $62K and the $60–61K order block back in focus.

🔵 Bitcoin ETFs Bleed a Record $6.4B in 30 Days

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their largest 30-day net outflow since launching in 2024 — about $6.35B per Galaxy Research, the worst reading across all 582 rolling windows tracked. It’s a sixth straight week of outflows and pulls cumulative net flow back to $53.4B from the $63B October 2025 peak. The marginal bid is thin, and the read only flips the day those flows turn green and stay there.

🟢 Whale Wallets Hit Highest Since March as Big Holders Keep Stacking

On-chain data shows wallets holding 1,000+ BTC now control roughly 7.17 million coins — the highest since 14 March — as large holders add into the fear. Glassnode’s seller-exhaustion signal is elevated and exchange balances keep drifting lower. Deep-fear readings are exactly where patient capital tends to accumulate, absorbing supply while leverage and ETFs capitulate.

🟠 Strategy Adds 1,587 BTC at $63K as Saylor Buys the Dip

Strategy scooped up another 1,587 BTC at an average of $63,024 on 19 June, lifting total holdings above 846,000 BTC, while Marathon added 1,000 BTC ($66M) earlier in the week. The treasury bid is still showing up under the tape even as ETFs redeem — a reminder that not every cohort is selling into the low $60Ks.

🟢 Morgan Stanley Files the Cheapest ETH & SOL ETFs Yet — 0.14% Fee, 95% Staking to Holders

Amended S-1/A filings for Morgan Stanley’s Ether (MSSE) and Solana (MSOL) trusts disclose a 0.14% sponsor fee — among the lowest anywhere — and keep 95% of staking rewards inside the fund for investors, with 5% to providers. They’re not approvals, but they ratchet up the altcoin ETF fee-and-staking war and widen the on-ramp for ETH and SOL demand.

🔵 ETF Money Rotates: BTC & ETH Bleed While SOL, XRP and HYPE Draw Cash

Between 15–18 June, BTC funds shed ~$227M and ETH ~$10M, yet Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid products pulled in fresh money. SOL trades near $73 (+6% on the week), HYPE up ~6% — an internal rotation rather than a clean exit from crypto. If the altcoin wrappers keep drawing inflows, the rotation is real rather than a blip dressed up as a trend.

🔴 Whale Sells 800 BTC at a $35M Loss as Capitulation Marks the Low $60Ks

A whale (37BnFf) offloaded 800 BTC for ~$50.2M, locking in an estimated $35.3M loss after buying near late-2025 highs. Realized-loss selling like this is painful — but it’s also how a tape grinds toward exhaustion around the order block, the kind of marker that tends to show up near a low rather than the start of one.

🟠 Mining Difficulty Set to Reset as Hashprice Squeezes Higher-Cost Miners

Difficulty has already fallen roughly 20% from its all-time high — the steepest retreat from a record since the 2021 China ban — with the next adjustment estimated around 27 June. Weaker hashprice and sub-spot production costs are forcing older rigs offline, and several miners are repurposing power toward AI/HPC to defend cash flow. It’s the network’s natural way of resetting after a hard leg lower.

🔵 BlackRock Shrugs Off Outflows, Launches BITA Income ETF

BlackRock’s equity-ETF head says day-to-day outflows can have “a million reasons” — including holders rotating from IBIT into its new iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA, 0.65% fee). The firm says the volatility hasn’t changed its long-term view of bitcoin as a global, non-sovereign monetary alternative.

🟣 Solana Outperforms as SOL Climbs ~6% on the Week to $73

SOL has been one of the few majors with real relative strength, up more than 6% over seven days near $73.70 as steady ETF inflows and DeFi activity underpin the bid. Outperformance while Bitcoin chops is constructive — the kind of leadership worth filing away for when broad sentiment finally turns.

🟢 HyperLiquid’s HYPE Holds Firm as Whales Keep Accumulating

HYPE remains the standout of the ETF complex — the only major category to dodge the redemption wave since launch — with whales adding and funds drawing steady inflows. Relative strength into a heavy tape is a tell; a clean break of overhead supply would confirm the bid has the upper hand, while a rejection keeps the range intact.

🟡 Macro Stays the Driver — Inflation, the Fed and the US–Iran Standoff

The tape is still trading the headlines: sticky US inflation above 4%, a hawkish Fed signalling fewer cuts, and the ongoing US–Iran standoff have done most of the damage this month. A genuine de-risking catalyst — softer inflation or a real de-escalation — is the missing ingredient bulls need. Until it arrives, bounces stay capped and the order block stays the level that matters.

🔵 Ether Lags as ETH Hovers Near $1.74K With Eyes on a Reclaim

ETH continues to underperform Bitcoin, changing hands near $1,740 after a modest bounce, with analysts warning of another selling wave unless it reclaims and holds higher. Exchange outflows would flip the read — but for now supply is the problem, and ETH is taking its cue from a heavy Bitcoin tape.

📊 FEAR & GREED READ — Chaoss

Fear and Greed is holding steady at 23 — still firmly in the fear zone — even as BTC has reclaimed the low $64Ks and the bounce has extended into its first real resistance. That tells you sentiment hasn’t caught up with price yet, which is usually a good sign. The bounce has done its job: a higher low off the low $62Ks and a climb back into the green box at $64–64.5K, with the declining anchored VWAP sitting right on top and momentum stretched into the move. This is the zone that decides it. Break and hold and we open the path back toward the $66–67K order block; reject here, lose $62K, and we finally flush into the $60–61K order block I’ve been waiting on. Either way the plan is the same — hold higher lows and the bullish setup lives, and a push back up out of that lower block is where I start looking for our next long. Whales are at their highest since March, Strategy keeps buying, and the network is busy — but ETFs just bled a record $6.4B over 30 days and the macro tape is still doing the damage with no fresh catalyst yet. So this is a watch-and-react day: let the level show its hand, keep size sensible into the weekend, and if we get the reaction I want we’ll plan the long together in Discord.

Stay safe out there. See you tomorrow. — Chaoss & the ChartHackers team

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