APPLE: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/risers-fallers-2027-mock-draft-1-and-the-return/id1732922319?i=1000787160126

(The Apple Link doesn’t seem to embed as easily).

Check out the podcast for my deepest dives into the 2027 NFL Draft class and reactions to Week 0 in College Football.

Welcome to the REGULAR SEASON

For “NFL Only” people, this is a week too early – but the Regular Season is very much here in College Football. With that in mind, this Substack is now in Risers, Fallers, & Weekly Mock Draft mode. Not as much to discuss this week, but there are a few minor changes to the format covered in the first section.

This is also my first Substack post since launching 5-Min Fantasy Futures. As discussed earlier in the Off-Season, the plan is to create a companion show that has quality content, but comes in an entirely different format compared to Fantasy for Real. I’ll talk about some of the specifics a bit more at the end of this post, but for right now, the first two episodes of the show (which can be listened to in ~15 minutes) are available.

EDIT: One big of additional content

With the changes at Fantasy for Real, I decided I wanted to unlock the full Summer Scouting Series Profile list on the Free Substack. This list features my Pros, Cons, & Player Summary for all 33 Players discussed in the 2026 Summer Scouting Series.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1J26x3kyacS2whoL-4ZRWWhMRbe7kJyyigXbpAWfST3Y/edit?usp=sharing

Slight changes to the format in 2026

Overall, these changes truly are slight, but if you’ve been following the Substack for a while, I wanted to make sure everything was clear (and there’s not as much to talk about after Week 0).

The biggest change is that last year, the Weekly Preview was released on Thursday as a separate post. This year, the Weekly Preview will be a part of the Tuesday Risers, Fallers, & Weekly Mock Draft Post. It will likely be the last major item in the post.

And then a minor organizational change, the Mock Draft will be pushed much higher on the Page.

These changes are being done in part to help the Fantasy for Real podcast and my new show, 5-Min Fantasy Futures, work together.

5MFF will air Monday, Wednesday, and Friday featuring short episodes that follow the 2027 Draft, and then FFR will air on Tuesday with my Deeper Dives into 2027 & future Draft Classes.

No Risers & Fallers of the Week this Week

Kept an open mind about a few players, but ultimately, while there’s a couple Florida State players and perhaps a North Carolina TE I very much want to talk about, they don’t deserve crowning “Riser of the Week” status – though 2028 RB Ousmane Kromah would be at least a candidate if this section were a bit more Devy and less 2027 NFL Draft focused.

Mock Draft 1 (with changes from the last mock draft on June 1st)

1. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

2. Cam Coleman, WR, Texas via Auburn

3. Arch Manning, QB, Texas

4. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

5. Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida (+1)

6. Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss (-1)

7. Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana (+4)

8. Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson (-1)

9. Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana via Michigan State

10. Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama (-2)

11. Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia (+1)

12. Omarion Miller, WR, Arizona State via Colorado (UNR)

Honorable Mentions:

Falling out of the Rankings: T.J. Moore (10) ; Situational Concerns for 2027 NFL Draft: Ahmad Hardy, Drew Mestemaker, C.J. Carr ; Top Honorable Mentions (Considering Eligibility): Justice Haynes, Amare Thomas, Deuce Alexander

Changes & Noteworthy Performances

Three changes to briefly discuss since the last Mock back on June 1st.

Jadan Baugh moves up a slot, switching places with Kewan Lacy, because while Lacy is still ranked more highly more often, Baugh is ranked highly enough that in this case, I’ll go with the player who I personally rank higher. On the other hand, while Charlie Becker was my WR7 during the Summer Scouting Series, he has been getting a lot of steam as the potential WR3 in this class. Additionally, my rankings may assume some optimism on players who are a bit further away, but the last time we saw Becker, he was Elite, which may make him a player more likely on track to enter the 2027 NFL Draft and be drafted highly. So, while it is the opposite of both the Summer Scouting Rankings and the philosophy displayed in the Baugh/Lacy swap, Becker is the biggest riser today (since the off-season exercise) moving from the 1.11 to the 1.07.

Aside from Becker, the most notable change is likely T.J. Moore falling outside the Top 12 with Omarion Miller receiving the last spot. For this predictive exercise, Moore does not seem to have a lot of buzz this off-season relative to the other players in this Draft, and as a 4th Year player, Miller may be more likely to enter the 2027 NFL Draft after this season.

Other than that, no one here played in Week 0, so there’s not much else to report; the Summer Scouting Series went into detail on every player listed in this Mock Draft.

Additional Risers, Devy , & additional notes

A lot to be optimistic about with Florida State (unless you’re a fan of the team)

Keeping in mind team performance is not really a variable we measure on this show, for 2027 NFL Draft prospects and beyond, this was a very encouraging performance from Florida State’s RBs & WRs.

On one podcast this off-season, I talked about how – even though I didn’t yet trust the floor – the ceiling for Florida State prospects felt far more achievable. It is just one game against a poor opponent, but some of the performances helped to solidify that there are prospects outside of Duce Robinson worth paying attention to on this FSU team.

Micahi Danzy’s production will not leap off the page, and most of it came on one 44-yd play early in the game, but that play was a reminder of Danzy’s blazing speed. Listed at 6’ 1” and the ACC Record holder in the 400m, Danzy’s potential to be one of the fastest players in the NFL means that even an “Okay” season will land him in the Day 2 conversation. Additionally, while his performance will draw fewer Devy headlines, Samuel Singleton Jr. had a nice game with 42 Rushing Yards & 54 Receiving Yards. Singleton has never received much of a role in three years of CFB, but could be in line for more opportunity now in Year 4.

But the biggest story in future prospects is likely Ousmane Kromah. A former top HS recruit and still very young – not eligible until 2028 – Kromah has the ideal size + speed combination to translate to a long-term NFL workhorse RB, and this game also displayed some very nice balance and ability to break through tacklers as well. Perhaps that alone should be the focal point of the performance and maybe I am being too critical here, but particularly because of his natural advantages, I wanted to see Kromah get down hill a bit more often. While Singleton did not perform nearly as well as a rusher on the surface or by advanced numbers, the difference between their running styles was night & day. Over time, perhaps this turns into an appreciation for advanced patience, but right now, I’m curious to see how Kromah will translate in tougher match-ups, including next week on Monday against SMU. Duce Robinson was fine enough, though his numbers in this game likely won’t help him in the long term compared to Fantasy relevant NFL Draft prospects (lower Yards & Efficiency against a lower conference opponent). Robinson has one more season of eligibility after this year with Five-for-Five.

Tanook Hines & Terrell Anderson DNP – what does that mean for the USC WRs?

Unless there’s a serious issue or injury that at least I myself am not currently aware of, it might be hard to know what this USC WR room will look like long term; on paper, the top two WRs for USC entering this season were second year WR Tanhook Hines & third year transfer WR Terrell Anderson. With neither player seeing action in Week 0, a laundry list of highly touted Freshman (not eligible until 2029) & Sophomores (not eligible until 2028) took the field for USC this weekend. Whether or not this is the new status quo or if Anderson & Hines will dominate targets when they return is a bit tricky to know right now, but youth production is very valuable in models, and in general it showcases an ability to achieve a high level of performance quickly in your career. Several players got to add some of that youth production this weekend against San Jose State.

While a couple of the sophomores had solid games, the performance of two true freshmen is what stood out the most. Trent Mosley is the player who had the big “Put my name on the Map” game. A fringe Top 300 prospect not eligible until the 2029 NFL Draft, Mosley had 9 Targets for 7 Receptions, 118 Yards, and 1 TD a week before most College freshmen will even have an opportunity to see the field. Mosley did fail to bring in his only Deep Target, but he was absolutely deadly with 19 Yards of the LOS. Additionally, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt may not have done nearly as much, but unless you’re next to a fellow freshman putting up 7/118/1, 4/36/1 is a perfectly encouraging first game of a career for a true freshman – even if it comes against San Jose State.

If you care about the season-long grading, Jayden Maiava got off to a great start. I do care about the grading adjusted by competition, but this game does not mean too much to me.

Disastrous performance for C.J. Bailey & Jayden “Duke” Scott

C.J. Bailey is not a player ranked very highly even among my honorable mentions, but even by fairly low standards this game was a disaster. Specifically, Bailey’s biggest issue has been taking care of the football, and he failed to do that on Saturday, with both an INT and a Fumble. Bailey needed to show significant progression, but instead, 2026 has started with a huge step back. And for Jayden “Duke” Scott, the game wasn’t nearly as bad – perhaps just a lack of opportunity – though if there was any hope of an increase in the passing game, getting 0 Targets in a blowout loss is not ideal. (Small programming note, seeing a lot more “Jayden Scott” than “Duke Scott” in official places, so probably going in that direction moving forward.)

A TE does emerge for North Carolina – even if it wasn’t one of the THREE we discussed

If Jelani Thurman’s placement on some Depth Chart or recent news gave this away, that’s on me, but it was very clear this off-season that Bill Belichick went into this season wanting to add high-upside talent at the TE position, and it seems clear at this point that Thurman is the name to emerge from those physically talented players. Thurman is a former Top 100 Recruit, but his prospect status disappeared after three years with almost no production for Ohio State. Now, only one game into his North Carolina career, Thurman has his highest single season Receiving Yards Total – and that includes 14 & 15 Game Seasons with OSU. Listed at 6’ 6”, 250 lbs, Thurman’s size, former prospect status, and explosive upside make him one of the stronger candidates this week for “Riser of the Week” honors. Not as noteworthy, but Jordan Shipp got off to a fine start in his third season of CFB.

On the TCU side, Jeremy Payne got off to a strong start to his season, leading the FBS in rushing yards and catching all 5 of his Targets. This will be Payne’s first year eligible for the NFL Draft, so he does check a lot of boxes for being young & productive, but listed at 5’ 10” and 180 lbs, Payne very clearly projects as a Day 3 player at the NFL Level.

Week 1 Preview & Weekly “What to Watch?”

Week 1 Game of the Week

Clemson @ LSU at 7:30 PM on ABC

Key Players: Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson ; T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson ; Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU via Arizona State ; Dilin Jones, RB, LSU via Wisconsin ; Jackson Harris, WR, LSU via Hawaii ; Jayce Brown, WR, LSU via Kansas State ; Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU ; Gideon Davidson, RB, Clemson (2028) ; Winston Watkins Jr., WR, LSU via Ole Miss (2028)

Both for College Football and for this Fantasy & NFL Draft show, LSU is not necessarily the “best” team yet, but they have a case to be one of the most intriguing with depth of talent at every position. Sam Leavitt needs to become more consistent in his first year working with Lane Kiffin, but he has the physical tools and traits that teams actually chase after in the 1st Round. Speaking of traits, TE Trey’Dez Green is a physical beast listed at 6’ 7”, and also has a strong chance to be a 1st Round Pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. While the RB & WR rooms are not clear, there are a number of interesting prospects in both rooms. At RB, my current pick would be between Wisconsin transfer Dilin Jones & 2028 5-Star Harlem Berry. Jones has gotten the most praise perhaps this off-season, and he is a bit more stylistically similar to RBs Kiffin has had success with in the past, like Quinshon Judkins & Kewan Lacy. At WR, Hawaii transfer Jackson Harris seems like the best bet to lead this team among Draft Eligible players, though 2028’s Winston Watkins Jr. may be my pick as a Devy asset.

Clemson is nowhere near as deep in interesting players, but Bryant Wesco Jr. & T.J. Moore each has a case to be the highest ranked prospect in this game on either side. For Wesco, this will be his first game since the Spinal injury in the middle of last season, so even a modest performance would be encouraging. For Moore, modesty has been more par-for-the-course, so it would be nice to see him take a step up this season with more consistent high-level or explosive performances throughout the 2026 Season. And then aside from the Draft Eligible players, 2028 RB Gideon Davidson is a Top 100 recruit who has generated a lot of buzz this off-season. Davidson will have a huge opportunity to move up 2028 RB Rankings this Season.

—

Thursday

Best of Thursday Mention: Colorado @ Georgia Tech at 8:00 PM on ESPN – Justice Haynes is the clear top player here, someone who just missed the first Mock Draft, and this will be our first glimpse into how Georgia Tech will utilize the Michigan transfer. For Colorado, a few former top recruits in Richard Young (Alabama transfer) & Deandre Moore Jr. (Texas transfer) look to rehabilitate their careers.

—

Friday

Best of Friday Mention: Miami @ Stanford at 9:00 PM on ESPN – How do the new look Miami Hurricanes mesh between returning players RB Mark Fletcher Jr. + WR Malachi Toney (2028) & new players QB Darian Mensah + WR Cooper Barkate.

—

Saturday

Boise State @ Oregon at 3:30 PM on CBS

Key Players: Dylan Riley, RB, Boise St. ; Sire Gaines, RB, Boise St. ; Dante Moore, QB, Oregon ; Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon ; Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon ; Dierre Hill Jr., RB, Oregon ; Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon

This game is a huge opportunity for the potential early declare Boise St. RBs to showcase their traits & abilities in one of the most difficult match-ups of the season. No disrespect to that Boise St. team, but Oregon will have a lot more opportunities down the road against higher quality defenses, so the biggest focal point in this game is likely WR Evan Stewart, who is returning from a patella injury.

—

UCLA @ California at 10:30 PM on ESPN

Key Players: Nico Iamaleava, QB, UCLA ; Adam Muhammed, RB, California via Washington ; Ian Strong, WR, California via Rutgers ; Dorian Thomas, TE, California via New Mexico ; Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele, QB, California (2028)

Perhaps the most intriguing QB match-up of Week 1, Nico Iamaleava & UCLA take on ‘28 QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. California did an excellent job this off-season surrounding JKS with quality offensive skill players in the transfer portal. Even if some of these players do not reach top-tier Draft Prospect status, they should all help to elevate this offense, and if one or two players can take a step forward, they can become interesting for the 2027 NFL Draft. For UCLA, there’s probably still a bit too much on Iamaleava’s shoulders, but he has every physical trait required to make a huge leap into the top of the 2027 NFL Draft.

—

QB Honorable Mentions: Baylor @ Auburn at 3:30 PM on ABC – Auburn has a few intriguing players who could take a step up like Jeremiah Koger (WR, 2028) & Jeremiah Cobb, but right now, the main focus in this game is seeing if D.J. Lagway can get back on the right track after an awful 2025 with Florida.

—

Sunday

Louisville @ Ole Miss at 7:30 PM on ABC

Key Players: Isaac Brown, RB, Louisville ; Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss ; Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss ; Deuce Alexander, WR, Ole Miss

One of the most explosive playmakers in College Football, Isaac Brown has struggled in a number of areas that translate to importance when talking about role (injuries, workload, receiving efficiency), but if he can round out his game a bit, he should be a potential Day 2 pick in the NFL Draft. For Ole Miss, there’s a greater depth of prospects to keep an eye on with a team like LSU, but Ole Miss has a very interesting top 3 prospects for the 2027 NFL Draft between Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy, & Deuce Alexander. While I would not consider him off-the-radar, Alexander is by far the least known of this trio, and his explosive upside could make him an early 2nd or even 1st Round pick if he does become the dominant #1 in this offense.

—

QB Honorable Mentions: Washington State @ Washington at 4:00 PM on NBC & Wisconsin v Notre Dame (in Lambeau) at 7:30 PM on NBC – Demond Williams (Washington) & C.J. Carr (Notre Dame) are two QBs eligible for the first time this Season with some NFL potential. Williams does have a significant size issue, while Carr’s lack of experience projects him towards 2028 on my own board, but high level performance from either QB this Season could get them in the Round 1 Conversation. Both of these games have 20+ Point Spreads, so Williams & Carr’s teams should dominate these games.

—

Monday

Best of Monday Mention: SMU @ Florida State at 7:30 PM on ESPN – Can Florida State’s Micahi Danzy & Ousmane Kromah (2028) build on their Week 0 performances in a tougher Week 1 match-up?

5-Min Fantasy Futures

While I love the Fantasy for Real podcast, I understand that a 90m-to-2h show can be a lot for people, particularly if your main goal with prospects is to just keep tabs on the class while we get closer to the end of the NFL Season.

So I’m launching a second show, 5-Min Fantasy Futures, to create an easier way to consume the latest information from the upcoming 2027 NFL Draft.

5-Min Fantasy Futures will release at least three episodes a week (aside from this week), including the 5-Min Monday Mock Draft, the 5-Min Wednesday Risers/Fallers of the Week, & the 5-Min Friday Weekly Preview.

The first Mock is out now:

Spotify:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/5-min-fantasy-futures/id6806677737

If you’re not seeing it on a Podcasting App, let me know so I can try to resolve the RSS issues.

To clarify a couple of potential questions:

1. Fantasy for Real is part of the Bleav network now, but 5-Min Fantasy Futures is launching as an independent concept with no affiliation with Bleav or any advertisers.

2. This will not interfere much if at all with the schedule for Fantasy for Real. Last year the main Risers, Fallers, & Weekly Mock Draft post and podcast released on Tuesday, and that is the same plan for this year. So if you’re following both shows, 5-Min Mock on Monday, Deep Dive Podcast on Tuesday (FFR), 5-Min Risers on Wednesday, and then 5-Min Preview on Friday. Thursday is left open for either second episodes of FFR or bonus episodes from 5MFF.

This will also be made clear if you check out the first episode of the show which explains the show (and is under 8 minutes long!)

TL;DR: Check out the 5-Min Fantasy Futures for a way to stay up to date with the upcoming 2027 NFL Draft in under 30 minutes each week

I am not sure how often I will have a Thursday episode this Season — it could be nearly every week, it could be rare, I’m honestly not sure — but with Redraft leagues still drafting, Thursday will be a show dedicated to the most recent news in the NFL and my most recent updates to my Redraft Fantasy Rankings.

Risers & Fallers will be back next week, hopefully with a full slate even though it’s a bit of a light Week 1. (Week 2 is awesome).

Questions & Comments welcome,

Thanks,

C.J.

Fantasy for Real is now hosted through Bleav. The podcast for this Risers/Fallers & Weekly Mock Draft can be found here: [Link(s)] (This link will not exist until Tuesday).

Check out the podcast for my deepest dives into the 2027 NFL Draft class and reactions to Week 0 in College Football.

Welcome to the REGULAR SEASON

For “NFL Only” people, this is a week too early – but the Regular Season is very much here in College Football. With that in mind, this Substack is now in Risers, Fallers, & Weekly Mock Draft mode. Not as much to discuss this week, but there are a few minor changes to the format covered in the first section.

This is also my first Substack post since launching 5-Min Fantasy Futures. As discussed earlier in the Off-Season, the plan is to create a companion show that has quality content, but comes in an entirely different format compared to Fantasy for Real. I’ll talk about some of the specifics a bit more at the end of this post, but for right now, the first two episodes of the show (which can be listened to in ~15 minutes) are available.

Slight changes to the format in 2026

Overall, these changes truly are slight, but if you’ve been following the Substack for a while, I wanted to make sure everything was clear (and there’s not as much to talk about after Week 0).

The biggest change is that last year, the Weekly Preview was released on Thursday as a separate post. This year, the Weekly Preview will be a part of the Tuesday Risers, Fallers, & Weekly Mock Draft Post. It will likely be the last major item in the post.

And then a minor organizational change, the Mock Draft will be pushed much higher on the Page.

These changes are being done in part to help the Fantasy for Real podcast and my new show, 5-Min Fantasy Futures, work together.

5MFF will air Monday, Wednesday, and Friday featuring short episodes that follow the 2027 Draft, and then FFR will air on Tuesday with my Deeper Dives into 2027 & future Draft Classes.

Read more

REGULAR SEASON on the PODCAST starts next week. That means Tuesday’s show will feature at least my Week 0 Review, Week 1 Preview, and the first Weekly Mock Draft of the Season. It won’t be the same as every other Tuesday to follow because it won’t come with a full Risers & Fallers write-up over just these few games, but it will be at least similar to what you should expect for the rest of the Season.

The most recent episode of the podcast focused on my Week 0 Preview & my Prospect Watchlists for the SEC, Big 12, & ACC, which also help to preview this CFB Season.

Week 0 Weekly What to Watch?

College Football Kick-off: North Carolina v TCU in Dublin at Noon on ESPN

While not the biggest match-up overall this season, North Carolina v TCU includes a number of potentially interesting players and sleepers for this upcoming and future Draft classes.

The team may still have a number of issues, but for Future Fantasy, I see North Carolina as having more intriguing players. In this stacked class, Jordan Shipp (WR, 2027) has not gotten too much hype or buzz, but Shipp is a former Top 100 Recruit who rose to the top of the North Carolina Depth Chart in Year 2, leading the team in Receptions, Receiving Yards, & Receiving TDs. As a potential early declare, the profile looks good, though some of the early evaluations of Shipp dismiss him as more of a late round pick. And then sticking with the 2027 Class, TE transfer Jaxxon Warren has received significant buzz throughout the off-season, and may be a dark horse candidate to become a more intriguing player throughout the process. In general, North Carolina has assembled an intriguing room of former 5-Star and highly athletic TEs. Outside of the 2027 Class, North Carolina’s starting RB started breaking through as a true freshman last year, but Demon June is not eligible until 2028. June had a couple explosive performances in 2025, and with a more consistent season, could put himself on the Draft radar next year.

For TCU, it’s less about the skill players and more about the QB. While Jaden Craig is a long shot to ever be a highly drafted Rookie, the former Harvard QB playing in Power Conference Football for the first time is an intriguing deeper sleeper in the 2027 NFL Draft. Listed 6’ 3”, 225 lbs, Craig may not have explosive tools, but he should remain on the prospect radar.

The other “Power Conference” Game: N.C. State @ Virginia at 3:30p on ESPN

This game likely would not make even the Honorable Mentions on a normal week -- but hey, Football is back. And N.C. State in particular does have at least a couple prospects worth monitoring.

QB C.J. Bailey is eligible for the first time this year, and between his size/height (listed 6’ 6”) & career accuracy (68.8% Comp% as true sophomore in 2025), there’s a fair argument that Bailey is flying too far under the radar in this 2027 NFL Draft Class. Bailey is a stiff mover & struggles with avoiding INTs, but he’s done enough throughout his early career to warrant Watchlist considerations even if he’s a bit buried even in my own rankings. The more likely dark horse for NCST is RB Duke Scott. Former N.C. State and now Texas RB Hollywood Smothers gets most of the headlines, but Scott is a RB who is eligible for the first time this season & has flashed in limited opportunities. Scott was only given 10+ Carries 3x last season, but in those three games, he produced 10/89/2, 24/196/1, & 19/94. Listed at over 220 lbs, Scott was a member of Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List with a reported 40-Yard dash of 4.35.

If I had to pick one performance to monitor today for 2027 Drafts — combining the relevance of the player with the potential competitive nature of the match-up — it would be N.C. State RB Duke Scott.

Talented Players in 30+ Points Spreads: San Jose St. @ USC at 3:00p on NBC + New Mexico St. @ Florida St. at 7:00p on the CW

These games really would not make the cut in a normal week. But both of these teams feature rooms or rotations that, even in this context, might at least give us some indication about who could be emerging on these teams.

Now before getting into that — I want to set aside Jayden Maiava (USC QB) & Duce Robinson (FSU WR). Whether you think these two are 1st Rounders or 4th Rounders, they are way too established to care about how they perform in this game as long as nothing surprising happens.

But outside of them, and particularly if you’re interested in players beyond 2027, there are a few players to monitor who haven’t really established themselves in College Football yet. FSU RB Ousmane Kromah (2028) has not proven much on the College field, but he was a top-tier HS recruit and still ranks as a potential top RB for many analysts in the 2028 Class — but he needs to be the starter this year and showcase the development he’s made since 2025. Looking back on this game likely won’t matter for Kromah’s long-term career, but it would be nice to see him get off to a good start this season. And then for USC, the only draft eligible WR at the top of this room is missing this game due to injury, so this is a WR rotation that should feature a number of young, highly touted, & highly talented WRs. Out of the top 4 WRs on USC’s Depth Chart for today’s game, Tanook Hines & Corey Simms are not eligible until 2028, and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt & Trent Mosley are true freshman, not eligible until 2029. Given the quality of talent in this room — even if there is a lack of experience — whoever establishes themselves within this WR room could become an instantly-interesting prospect for Devy & Future Fantasy. Among the 4, Hines is the most proven, while Dixon-Wyatt probably had the highest HS Prospect Status.

One last prospect to monitor, FSU WR Micahi Danzy — who is eligible for the first time this year — is one of my favorite Sleepers and could even be the highest drafted WR between himself and teammate Duce Robinson. Danzy is over 6’ tall, and in the NFL, would be a candidate for the fastest player in the league. According to Feldman’s Freaks List, Danzy set an ACC Record at the Outdoor Championship Meet this year for the 400M. Danzy’s very raw as a receiver, but his ball skills started to improve throughout the 2025 Season, and frankly ball skills alone may be enough to translate an over 6’ + 24 MPH WR to the NFL level.

Appreciate everyone, comments & questions welcome, & once again the Regular Season Schedule returns on Tuesday.

Thanks,

C.J.

EARLY ACCESS

This has been discussed at least on the Podcast before, but the Risers/Fallers, Weekly Mock Draft, & Preview for the Next Week will be written most likely by Sunday Night. This does not release on my Substack until I release the Podcast episode on Tuesday, but the PAID Subscriber Tier will get an Early Access Post every Sunday Night, or Monday Morning at latest. This is only a few days, and so it is just a small way to try and thank those who help Support the show.

RANKINGS

I don’t hide my rankings very much in terms of questions, comments, and detailed responses, but I plan to keep updated Rankings for Devy Tiers & the 2027 NFL Draft, and those documents will only be accessible through the Paid Subscriber Tier. So if you want to be able to check a Document at any point throughout the Season to see my most updates rankings, consider becoming a PAID member of the Substack.

Read more

I have been discussing this for a bit on the Podcast/Substack, but the Fantasy for Real podcast is joining with a new network and so there are changes specifically for how the Podcast will be integrated into this Substack. For those who mostly read, basically nothing will change. But if you want to access Episode #188 of the Fantasy for Real Podcast, you’ll have to try one of these links here or go wherever you get your Podcasts.

I do plan on including these links each and every week.

Episode 188:

It has been a lot of thought in choosing to make this decision, but I’m hoping that this is not only good for the short-term, but potentially can be something that helps the long-term potential and growth of the Show & Substack.

NEXT WEEK BEGINS THE REGULAR SEASON ON THE SUBSTACK AND PODCAST

Tuesday’s show won’t be a full Risers/Fallers post of course because there will not be nearly enough College Football this weekend, but the next episode of the show will review Week 0, get into my Week 0 2027 Mock Draft, & Preview Week 1.

Walking Through Mock Drafts from the 2, 5, 9, & 11

Mock 1, Slot 2

Round 1 is an easy decision; I have Jahmyr Gibbs & Bijan Robinson as my Top 2 Overall players, so unless the 1.01 leaves both on the board (in which case I lean Gibbs), I’ll be taking whoever is left over.

Some of my longshot favorites include the Top 2 TEs, Chase Brown, & A.J. Brown for the 2-3 Turn, but none of those players came back to me in this draft. Still, part of why I love this spot so much this year is that the consensus seems a bit lower on George Pickens, Drake London, and Nico Collins. It’s not my preference to start Bijan + London, so that helps to make it a clear choice to take George Pickens. I can understand a different choice in Round 3, and I wish Team 1 had taken London so I could take Collins, but ultimately my Tiers suggest that Bijan + London is the right decision here even if it is a bit awkward.

Joe Burrow is a top 3 QB on my board, but by the consensus he’s a bit below Drake Maye. In this spot, having a strong core of three players and not necessarily looking at the TE position for a while, it makes sense to take Joe Burrow. The other top consideration is getting my 2nd RB. The greatest fear at this turn is that my last two Top 21 RBs – D’Andre Swift & Bucky Irving – would both go to Team 1, and it might be worth taking one instead of Burrow to prevent that outcome. But as long as one of those comes back – which they did in this case – I love taking Burrow here.

Between RB & WR, Jameson Williams is probably higher on my “Overall Rankings,” but this Draft made me really remember how much I value the Top 21 RBs. Locking down a solid RB2 is not necessary, but I’d rather be targeting WR in the next several rounds.

IMPORTANT Rankings Note: Throughout this Mock Exercise, I drafted Irving over Swift, but both my own rankings and my actions in my own Drafts so far make it clear that I do recommend Swift over Irving.

This particular part of the Mock Draft Walkthrough will probably serve for several sections, but once I get beyond my Top 21 RBs, as long as I have 2 RBs, my priority does seem to shift towards the WRs who I think have a bit more upside. Parker Washington & Marvin Harrison Jr. are in my Tier of Top 32 WRs, and I’m likely taking any player from this Tier before going beyond my Top 21 RBs – again, unless I have fewer than 2. For the later picks, Jacory Croskey-Merritt is a favorite based on his current ADP, but that is a risky thing to rely on as a 3rd RB (not just Bill himself, but getting Bill where his current ADP suggests he should go). When we get beyond my Top 29-30 RBs – into the Tier of primary back-ups – I prefer again to lean on the WR position and specifically the players in my Top 43-46. In this case, that means a lot of De’Zhaun Stribling & Denzel Boston.

Mock 2, Slot 5

As I’ve been discussing recently on the show, I’m not even confident in my own evaluations when injuries and off-field, so make sure you’re taking that into account when drafting any player – including Puka Nacua at the 1.05. Right now, after the Top 2 (Bijan/Gibbs), my next two are Ja’Marr Chase & Puka Nacua, so if one of those four players drops to my pick anywhere below 4, they’re going to be drafted immediately.

Drafting a Top Tier TE is certainly controversial, particularly considering a lot of the advice on this show angles towards “high upside” plays in Redraft and in many ways taking a Top Tier TE can be seen as “Safe,” but I also think there’s significant value in targeting clear & rare statistical advantages. Plus, I’m not as high on the RBs if Saquon Barkley & Chase Brown are off the board, which they were in this case. Kenneth Walker III being available was definitely a bit comparison point, and with KWIII being my own RB8, I could go either way with that decision, but as someone very high on Breece Hall, taking a Top Tier TE and then still getting a preferred option at RB made for a great Top 3 players to start this Draft.

Similarly to the last Draft, I was in the difficult position of choosing between the player I wanted more (Jameson Williams) and the position I needed more (Irving/Swift). However this time, Jameson came all the way back around in Round 5, so this turn ended up pretty ideal adding two of my favorite players on the board during the 4th/5th Round and continuing solid balance for the Team.

This is the part that very much begins to repeat the previous Mock: “once I get beyond my Top 21 RBs, as long as I have 2 RBs, my priority does seem to shift towards the WRs who I think have a bit more upside. [Brian Thomas Jr. & Makai Lemon] are in my Tier of Top 32 WRs, and I’m likely taking any player from this Tier before going beyond my Top 21 RBs – again, unless I have fewer than 2…

The biggest difference between this Draft & that Draft is the need for a QB, and Jaxson Dart is an ideal pick in the 8th Round. Dart does fall in my rankings the deeper a league gets – I like to be able to take Dart in Shallow or even 12-Team leagues where the “back-up” plan at QB can be pretty solid – but overall he’s the best priced upside shot in Fantasy Leagues this year due to his injury concern and connection now to Matt Nagy. While these things are both true, his rushing rate could still lead to an overall QB1 Season, and very few players this far down the Draft can make that claim.

Mock 3, Slot 9

While I generally love Drafting from the earlier spots this year, 9 is a very convenient place (pending on any changes in the Top Tiers) because after the Top 4 players discussed above, my next 3 RBs (Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, & Christian McCaffrey) + next 2 WRs (Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Amon-Ra St. Brown) are all very clear. So with that being a Top 9, at 9, I get whoever falls. In this case, there were no surprises in the Top 8, so only one of my players – James Cook – was available, which made him the easy choice at the 1.09.

As much as I love building a balanced team, I often find myself pushing Chase Brown into the 1st Round, and while it is an Early 2nd Round Pick, the chance to start the Draft with 2 RBs who could be Difference Makers on excellent Offenses & the ability to be the #1 RB Overall, this Mock Draft started with a RB/RB build. Even though Saquon Barkley is in the same Tier, I don’t know that I would do this for any RB other than Chase Brown.

For my own rankings, the next turn of the Draft worked out about as well as it possibly could have. Malik Nabers is certainly a risk, but I even had the option of going to my WR12, Chris Olave. So whether or not I take Malik Nabers, this board fell perfectly for someone who started RB/RB, and then additionally, DeVonta Smith is right alongside those two as one of my Top 15 WRs. I do love Colston Loveland, and perhaps if I went Olave or had a “safer” start, I could go in that direction, and if Devonta Smith was not available, Loveland would likely be the pick. But with only 1 WR so far, that WR having an injury question, and the perfect player in Devonta Smith falling to me in the 4th Round, this pick is very easy.

The value in these Rounds often seems the worst at QB/TE, and with two ELITE RBs, I have the flexibility to focus on value, and in the 5th Round, that value is Jameson Williams, which is where this Draft starts to align with the previous Drafts.

However, in this case, I do not get a 3rd RB or a TE. This is similar to what has already been discussed, but it is important to display how serious it is: it isn’t that this team doesn’t need RBs, it is that I am trying to stay diligent on where I see the value in the Tiers. For example, not this Mock Draft but my own 14-Team League, I’m in a slow Draft where my only two RBs for a long time were Chase Brown & D’Andre Swift. I drafted my 7th WR before my 3rd RB, but then managed to get two players who I see as valuable handcuffs with a potential for a role in Brian Robinson & Tyjae Spears. There are still a few more RBs as well who could serve fine as a 5th RB. Don’t get me wrong – my 3rd RB in this scenario is very weak, as is my 3rd RB in this Mock Draft. But I honestly feel pretty good about the value of these WRs still.

Mock 4, Slot 11

Every other Mock had an extremely easy first pick with the last player in a particular Tier, but this is a tricky spot right away. Overall, I’d probably list CeeDee Lamb more highly “in a vacuum,” but I strongly prefer to have at least one strong RB on my team as well. The biggest fear here is probably that – even setting aside the fact that I do clearly prefer Chase Brown to Saquon Barkley – there are 2 RBs in my next tier (Brown, Saquon) but 3 WRs in my next tier (CeeDee, Justin Jefferson, & A.J. Brown). While it doesn’t seem very likely in general, if Team 12 takes Chase Brown & Saquon Barkley, leaving me with CeeDee Lamb & Justin Jefferson – I’m obviously not going to complain about that start too much, but I’d much rather have my first RB before the (at earliest) 35th Overall Pick / 3.11. There is a part of me that always wants to roll the dice here, take CeeDee, and hope to get Chase Brown in the 2nd, but I know at this point that I’d rather build my team with Brown & Jefferson or A.J. Brown. This is the same choice I made at the 13th Pick of my 14-Team League as well. With 2 WRs remaining in a very highly-valued Tier, the next pick becomes obvious, or at least narrowed down to 2 WRs in the same Tier.

Once again here, Loveland is a really good value for me at the 3.11, but DeVonta Smith is in rare Tier with players like Olave & Higgins on my board that is just slightly above Loveland, and so with only 1 WR already, Smith is the initial pick, with Loveland luckily enough coming back around at the 4.02. This is waiting at the RB position a bit, but with two potential WR1s and a potential elite RB, the Top Tier TE fits in nicely.

Most managers at the next turn would probably take Tuten first, and probably even more would expect Tuten to not make it back around, but I do have Tuten & Price in the same Tier. I was expecting to get McLaurin & Price, but McLaurin & Tuten will be the turn here. Afterward, JCM is my next ranked RB after Tuten, so coming back around and this being my weakest RB room so far, the choice to Draft Bill is obvious, and after that it becomes a game of chicken at the QB position.

The 11th Round is cut-off here, but Kyler Murray would be my selection here, though in a real Draft, I may not feel so bold to wait in the 10th Round. I do think, at least if your board breaks down like this one, that I would feel confident waiting until the 10th Round. It’s that last extra turn where the QB position has too much potential to get too sketchy.

The Conference Watchlist is not the easiest to translate without just making it a list of players OR making a piece a bit longer than I was planning on this time of the year, but here are a few of my biggest takeaways particularly from the SEC Schools & focused on the 2027 NFL Draft discussed on the podcast today:

Alabama RB Daniel Hill hasn’t proven too much between the tackles yet, but he has fantastic upside as a 244-lb RB who has shown pass catching upside in the past. He is eligible for the first time this year.

Georgia WR Isiah Canion is largely a gut call, but he is a very interesting player as a potential early declare. Canion is a transfer from Georgia Tech who flashed last year.

The most intriguing team in terms of players not discussed previously is most likely LSU. The LSU WR Room features a few players including 4th Year transfer Jackson Harris & 2nd Year transfer (coming alongside Lane Kiffin) Winston Watkins Jr. (2028). Similarly, the RB room features a Wisconsin transfer, Dilin Jones, who had some hype last year and has been a big time riser this spring for LSU as well. Competing with Jones will be another underclassmen, former 5-Star HS Recruit Harlem Berry (2028). Aside from the top two players at each position, Kansas State transfer WR Jayce Brown & returning RB Caden Durham have been highly touted players in the past.

One of my biggest takeaways from the Summer School Series on Cover 3 was to keep an eye out for true freshman (2029) Aaron Gregory from Texas A&M.

Brugler’s Top 50 Big Board

QBs: 3 Arch Manning, QB, Texas ; 6 Dante Moore, QB, Oregon ; 27 C.J. Carr, QB, Notre Dame ; 30 Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State via North Texas ; 35 Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss ; 37 LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina ; 41 Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (FL) via Duke

RBs: 17 Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss ; 26 Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida ; 31 Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri

WRs: 1 Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State ; 5 Cam Coleman, WR, Texas via Auburn ; 9 Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana ; 34 Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana via Michigan State ; 46 Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson ; 50 Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama

TEs: 11 Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU ; 18 Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon

Very Few Differences

QBs 1, 2, 3, & 4 on Dane Brugler’s Board are QBs 1, 2, 4, & 5 on my Board.

RBs 1, 2, & 3 on Dane Brugler’s Board are RBs 1, 2, & 5 on my Board.

WRs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6 on Dane Brugler’s Board are WRs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 7 on my Board.

TEs 1 & 2 on Dane Brugler’s Board are TEs 1 & 2 on my Board.

There are some differences within these Rankings – for example Brugler is a bit higher on Becker but lower on Marsh & Wesco – but there are very few differences when it comes to who is included in the rankings. The biggest difference at any position is probably the fact that I am giving Julian Sayin’s traits the benefit of the doubt, but Brugler does not rank Sayin in his Top 50 Prospects. While I do have Sayin as QB3, I’m very nervous about the Traits, so I don’t necessarily have a strong argument against that decision. The difference in our Ahmad Hardy grade may come down to reacting to the off-season gun shot wound.

NEXT WEEK BEGINS THE REGULAR SEASON ON THE SUBSTACK AND PODCAST (Same as above)

Tuesday’s show won’t be a full Risers/Fallers post of course because there will not be nearly enough College Football this weekend, but the next episode of the show will review Week 0, get into my Week 0 2027 Mock Draft, & Preview Week 1.

Since many will still be doing their Drafts in a couple weekends, I will likely have two posts next week, with a Thursday/Friday post focusing on my most recent Redraft updates.

Questions & Comments welcome,

Thanks,

C.J.

However, for those drafting right now, a few updates or last minute changes from the previous episode:

• Last episode I mentioned that Jeremiyah Love was on top of the next Tier and moved out of the 8-13 Tier due to injury. Very likely, Ashton Jeanty is in the same place. That said, my least confident area as an analyst by far is addressing injuries, so make sure to apply your own adjustments based on the most recent information.

• Speaking of injuries, the slow return for Chuba Hubbard is probably a bit underrated in my own rankings even without the context of Jonathon Brooks, so I’m more or less officially removing Hubbard from the final RB tier and he can join Brooks in the best of the rest.

• I mentioned previously that if Deshaun Watson won the job, he would likely enter that final Tier, but under this set of circumstances I’m not sure that is the case. My (clearly incorrect) assumption was that Watson would have to play better than Shedeur to win the job, and my assessment of Watson rising up if he won the job was at least partially attached to an idea he’d look better and seem like he’s turning back the clock. Ultimately he still likely deserves to be in that final Tier because Monken has been friendly to passing games in the past & the new collection of young weapons in KC Concepcion, Fannin, & Boston.

• PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANT IF YOU’RE DOING YOUR DRAFTS: My biggest take away from doing the Mock Drafts is that I really want to have 2 RBs in that Top 21. I like enough WRs that a Zero or Hero RB pivot is certainly fine if the value presents itself, but Mock 1 (from Slot #2) really helped to highlight this: while I like Jameson Williams better than Bucky Irving overall, the decision to take a second RB I felt really paid off in the construction of the team.

THE FOLLOWING MOCK DRAFT BOARDS are NOT here to discuss how “good” I feel a team is or suggest any kind of success in drafting a team. The goal of the Mock Draft exercise was to see how Tiers applied in various circumstances. The full boards are necessary to see what was available.

Mock 1: My Team (Slot 2, beginning with Bijan Robinson)

Mock 2: My Team (Slot 5, beginning with Puka Nacua)

Mock 3: My Team (Slot 9, beginning with James Cook)

Mock 4: My Team (Slot 11, beginning with Chase Brown)

(The 11th Round was cut-off, but the pick was Kyler Murray — but I’m not sure I’d be confident enough to pass on Murray or Purdy/Nix in the 10th in a real draft)

Expect a bit more on these Mock Drafts on Thursday/Friday!

Thursday/Friday’s show will be what I originally planned for this show — the rest of my Futures Watchlist. So the next show will cover prospects in the SEC, ACC, & Big 12 that did not make the Summer Scouting Series either because they’re a bit more off-the-radar, or because they are not eligible for the 2027 NFL Draft. This is also where I’ll talk a bit more about recent CFB News like Keelon Russell officially being named the starter at Alabama & Faizon Brandon officially being named the starter at Tennessee.

THERE WILL BE big changes to the Podcast soon, but everything for Substack readers should stay primarily the same. The biggest difference will likely be the way the Podcast is linked versus embedded in the Substack posts & most notably in the Substack app. Hopefully this is a change that helps the show into the future.

Thanks as always,

Questions & Comments welcome,

C.J.

2026 Rookie Ranking Notes (from last post)

MOST of my rankings have not changed from June or even Day 2/3 of the NFL Draft, but there are a few key changes, primarily among players who have received a lot of buzz this off-season.

Basic Philosophy on Early Changes

While you never want to go too far with early changes, there is a tendency to potentially underrate buzz at this point in the season. A strong training camp is like a lot of other small, mitigating factors: on its own, it certainly doesn’t indicate future success or improved outcomes. However, relatively to other players who may be struggling in camp most of all, players who have a strong camp & off-season process should move up rankings. This isn’t to say that Ja’Kobi Lane, De’Zhaun Stribling, or Cyrus Allen will follow in these footsteps, but just about every later Drafted WR I can remember in my time evaluating prospects had a very strong training camp. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Romeo Doubs are three players who have found different levels of success, but each has been at the very least highly successful for a Day 3 Pick, and all three were candidates for the most “buzzworthy” camp rookie in their respective off-seasons.

This does not say that these players are at all likely to follow in the footsteps of ARSB or Puka in particular, but when we get to lower drafted or lower graded players where our own expectations are essentially that the player will not be successful — which is essentially what it means to be selected in the 3rd Round and even the 2nd Round of a Fantasy Draft — I do value camp reports & Training Camp buzz because relative to the prospects who do not have it, those that do seem just a bit more likely to find some degree of success.

De’Zhaun Stribling

While my pre-draft grades were not very high on Stribling, the 33rd Overall Capital combined with 49ers landing spot did put Stribling in my mid-2nd, which was far above his initial ADP. Even in my rankings, he has now risen to probably a Tier that ranges from 1.12 to 2.03.

Eli Stowers

It isn’t by much, but the difficult camp has pushed Eli Stowers under other key players that I would clearly prefer to Stowers at this point — Jonah Coleman, De’Zhaun Stribling, & Zachariah Branch come to mind first. Stowers has been behind some of these players already, but the preference towards those other players at the top of the 2nd is getting stronger.

Ja’Kobi Lane / Elijah Sarratt

My post-draft rankings did follow along the consensus in some ways, ranking Elijah Sarratt ahead of Ja’Kobi Lane, but at least my rankings had the two ranked consecutively — which meant that Sarratt was about 8-10 spots below consensus (a fade) & Lane was about 8-10 spots above (a target). At this stage, it does seem like Lane — who is younger, more physically talented, & drafted higher — is already ahead of Sarratt, which means Lane should be going significantly ahead of Sarratt in ADP.

Cyrus Allen

Allen remains a prospect with a poor pre-draft grade, poor draft capital, and should ultimately be seen as a long shot to be successful in the NFL, but so should most players in the 3rd or even late-2nd. Allen’s buzz and landing spot are worth one of the first picks in the 3rd Round.

Chris Brazzell II

ADP seems to be mostly on board with Brazzell falling out of the Top 3 Rounds in Drafts since his injury — and it is unfair — but Brazzell is not someone in my Top 3 Rounds post-injury. There is some argument for value insulation: Brazzell cannot maintain any form of high value, but so many players in the 3rd/4th will be completely without value and on Waivers, while Brazzell may at least maintain the value of a draft pick. But ultimately, even in with the low hit rate in the 3rd Round, you want to select the players like Cyrus Allen, Lane or one of the Dolphins who just has a shot at being that difference maker this year. And while it is unfair once again, the transition to the NFL is so rough, that for players who aren’t truly in that upper echelon of talent & ability, early career injuries are probably more detrimental to development than we give them credit for.

2026 REDRAFT DRAFT PREP PART 1: Positional Tiers

(+/- is difference compared to positional ADP via FantasyPros)

QB Rankings

Tier 1: Josh Allen has been a Top 2 QB for 6 Straight Years, QB6 the year before that (QB1)

1. Josh Allen

Tier 2: Proven, consistent, Elite QBs who dominate when healthy (QB2-3)

2. Lamar Jackson

3. Joe Burrow (+1)

Tier 3: Rushing like this is good for ceiling AND FLOOR (QB4-5)

4. Jayden Daniels (+1)

5. Jalen Hurts (+1)

Tier 4: Highest per-game upside among the clear QB1s (QB6-7)

6. Drake Maye (-3)

7. Jaxson Dart (+3)

Tier 5: The Clear QB1s (QB8-10)

8. Trevor Lawrence (+3)

9. Caleb Williams (-2)

10. Dak Prescott (-2)

Tier 6: Fringe / Satisfactory QB1s in 1QB Leagues (QB11-15)

11. Justin Herbert (-2)

12. Kyler Murray (+5)

13. Patrick Mahomes (+1)

14. Bo Nix (+1)

15. Brock Purdy (-2)

Tier 7: Solid Starters in SF, Potential Starters or Streamers in 1QB (QB16-21)

16. Jared Goff

17. Matthew Stafford (-5)

18. Jordan Love

19. Tyler Shough (+1)

20. Baker Mayfield (-1)

21. Malik Willis

Tier 8: Final Acceptable Starters in SF (QB22-24)

22. C.J. Stroud

23. Daniel Jones

24. Sam Darnold

Tier 9: Viable QB3s in SF, but ultimately QBs I only want to stream in the most favorable match-ups (QB25-29)

25. Cam Ward

26. Bryce Young

27. Jacoby Brissett (+4)

28. Tua Tagovailoa (+4)

29. Aaron Rodgers (-1)

QB Rooms Not Selected: Browns, Raiders, Jets

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Because Drake Maye is my QB2 in Dynasty, I feel like I have spent more time defending Maye this off-season, but in spite of my long-term optimism, I do rate some of the more mobile (and proven in Burrow’s case) QBs above Maye. Jaxson Dart has a significant concern in the offense surrounding him as well as his own tendencies to play recklessly, but there are very few QBs who have the potential mobility to threaten even Josh Allen in Fantasy Points for a Football Season. Dart has that kind of upside with his rushing, and in 1QB, that is the kind of QB to target where QBs in Tier 7 are easier to acquire and could even hit the waiver wire.

Dart is a greater risk in SF, which does importantly highlight that while it may seem like there is no difference, there should be a slight difference in rankings between 1QB (what these are) and SF. While upside always has the potential to be extremely important, SF should value security just a bit more.

The camp buzz has been mostly mixed, but J.J. McCarthy has made the belief around the Vikings go from “the Holy Grail of landing spots” to “I think it’s okay?” — and that seems to be a bit of an overreaction. Say what you will about Kyler Murray and his Call of Duty habits (or anything else that sounds & is far more legitimate), but he’s a bonafide starting QB at the NFL level who has career averages of 3,998 Passing Yards and 24 Passing TDs per Season over the course of an 87 Game Career. Could he be “cooked”? Absolutely. But this seems like a textbook situation where a player can elevate an established baseline in an improved situation — more like Sam Darnold in 2024 than J.J. in 2025.

RB Rankings

NOTE: After Tier 2, I removed differences of +1 or -1 to more highlight significant gaps

Tier 1: Elite, Difference Making RBs in or entering their prime (RB1-2)

1. Jahmyr Gibbs

2. Bijan Robinson

Tier 2: Other players most likely to be Difference Makers (RB3-5)

3. Jonathan Taylor

4. James Cook (+1)

5. Christian McCaffrey (-1)

Tier 3: Potential RB1s who have a clearer path to becoming “The” RB1 (RB6-7)

6. Chase Brown (+4)

7. Saquon Barkley (+2)

Tier 4: Potential RB1s who have an issue becoming “The” RB1 (RB8-13)

8. Kenneth Walker III (+5)

9. De’Von Achane (-2)

10. Omarion Hampton

11. Ashton Jeanty (-5)

12. Derrick Henry (-4)

13. Breece Hall (+4)

Tier 5: Last Call for good paths to an RB1 Season (RB14-16)

14. Jeremiyah Love

15. Javonte Williams

16. Kyren Williams (-4)

17. Travis Etienne Jr. (+3)

Tier 6: Top-Tier RB2s or Long-Shot RB1s (RB17-21)

18. Josh Jacobs (-4)

19. Cam Skattebo

20. D’Andre Swift (+2)

21. Bucky Irving (-2)

Tier 7: Potential high-talent RBs with a bit more risk (RB22-24)

22. Quinshon Judkins

23. TreVeyon Henderson

24. Jadarian Price (+4)

Tier 8: High-Upside Flex Plays who could ultimately be nothing (RB25-30)

25. Bhayshul Tuten (-2)

26. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (+12)

27. Chuba Hubbard (+7)

28. Tony Pollard

29. David Montgomery (-4)

30. Jaylen Warren (-3)

Top 30 ADP RBs Unranked in My Top 30: R.J. Harvey & Rico Dowdle

Other RBs with Significant Role Potential (RB31-45): All 3 Broncos (J.K. Dobbins, R.J. Harvey, Jonah Coleman), at least two Vikings (Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones + Demond Claiborne as a Sleeper) + Jonathon Brooks, Blake Corum, Rico Dowdle, Kenneth Gainwell, Kyle Monangai, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Nicholas Singleton, Rhamondre Stevenson, & Rachaad White

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Offense, Offense, Offense. There are several challenges to playing Redraft, but perhaps one of the biggest is understanding that a better player can be far worse in a worse situation. It sounds obvious, but when we believe that Chase Brown is less talented than Ashton Jeanty, it becomes a huge struggle to take Brown over Jeanty. But the fact is, unless there’s going to be a massive trade no one sees coming, in a one-year league, I would rather bet on Chase Brown. Similarly, while the Dolphins offense was poor in 2026 Overall, I cannot be convinced that the combination of Mike McDaniel + Tua Tagovailoa was bad for De’Von Achane specifically. If you want to convince me it was bad for everyone else including the Dolphins and the jobs of McDaniel & Tua, I can even buy into that, but the Offense was stylistically perfect for Achane with good concept and scheme. Tua —> Willis could be a net neutral or even positive for the Dolphins this season, but I believe it is extremely likely to be a net negative for De’Von Achane given how well Achane has performed with Tua healthy throughout his career.

It’s important to clarify that Josh Jacobs really has nothing to do with the off-field situation: I may be calling the putt too early — even years too early — but Jacobs isn’t the level of consistently dominant talent that players who commonly play into their 30s at this position often are. He has been very inconsistent throughout his career, so while the offense surrounding Jacobs in particular makes this a tough call, I enter 2026 very skeptical with Jacobs.

Because path to touches is so important as we get down the rankings, I don’t rank RBs as directly as WRs. I am going to be listening to any news up until my drafts to determine roles in some of these mixed backfields, & RB more than other positions probably demands looking at roster needs among this group. Certain RBs have a higher upside, while others may be better if you need a starter.

WR Rankings

Tier 1: With health, likely to put up a season that rivals THE WR1 (WR1-2)

1. Ja’Marr Chase

2. Puka Nacua

Tier 2: Clear Top Half (Top 6) WR1s with potential to threaten THE WR1 (WR3-5)

3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1)

4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-1)

5. CeeDee Lamb

Tier 3: Potential Top Half (Top 6) WR1s with potential to threaten THE WR1 (WR6-7)

6. Justin Jefferson

7. A.J. Brown (+2)

Tier 4: The Clear (with health) WR1s (WR8-11)

8. Drake London (-1)

9. George Pickens (-1)

10. Nico Collins

11. Malik Nabers (+1)

Tier 5: Fringe (with health) WR1s (WR12-15)

12. Chris Olave (-1)

13. DeVonta Smith (+5)

14. Tee Higgins

15. Rashee Rice (-2)

Tier 6: Top Tier WR2s with the volume to be a “WR1” in certain situations or leagues (WR16-19)

16. Zay Flowers (-1)

17. Ladd McConkey (+2)

18. Tetairoa McMillan (-2)

19. Garrett Wilson (+1)

Tier 7: High Upside WR2s with WR1 potential, but significant risk (including injury risk) (WR20-23)

20. Jameson Williams (+3)

21. Luther Burden III (+1)

22. Emeka Egbuka (-5)

23. Mike Evans (+5)

Tier 8: Last Call for the WRs you truly “want” to start incl. 3 WR or 2 Flex leagues (WR24-32)

24. Terry McLaurin (+2)

25. Rome Odunze (+2)

26. Carnell Tate (+4)

27. Jaylen Waddle (-6)

28. Brian Thomas Jr. (+4)

29. Parker Washington (+2)

30. Marvin Harrison Jr. (+4)

31. Makai Lemon (+33)

32. Davante Adams (-7)

Tier 9: Top Flier Options or Potential Safe Flex Plays (WR33-43)

Tier 10: Other Flier Options (WR44-61)

I originally forgot to add Stribling and for whatever reason trying to add him now is messing with the numbers between lists, so since I can’t get it straight on short notice, Tiers 9-10 are listed together.

33. Michael Wilson (+4)

34. D.J. Moore (-10)

35. Christian Watson (-6)

36. Jordyn Tyson (+2)

37. Alec Pierce (-1)

38. Chris Godwin

39. Denzel Boston (+19)

40. Courtland Sutton (-7)

41. K.C. Concepcion (+10)

42. DK Metcalf (-7)

43. De’Zhaun Stribling (+21)

44. Josh Downs (+1)

45. Wan’Dale Robinson (-4)

46. Matthew Golden (+7)

47. Travis Hunter (+25)

48. Quentin Johnston (-6)

49. Khalil Shakir (+7)

50. Romeo Doubs

51. Michael Pittman (-5)

52. Jalen Coker (+5)

53. Jordan Addison (-10)

54. Cyrus Allen (+37*)

55. Caleb Douglas (+37*)

56. Omar Cooper Jr. (+13)

57. Stefon Diggs (-10)

58. Chris Bell (+46*)

59. Zachariah Branch (+19)

60. Jayden Reed (-11)

61. Xavier Worthy (-13)

Highest ADP: Jakobi Meyers, Deebo Samuel, Jayden Higgins, Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings, Jerry Jeudy, Tank Dell

—

Perhaps most important with some of the calls at this position, make sure to monitor injury advice. Malik Nabers is a player in particular where I may not be valuing the injury properly, so make sure to pay attention to the most recent news you hear as you approach your own drafts.

Jaylen Waddle & D.J. Moore are two hot names in new locations, but when players enter veteran status, I just care too much about recent performance even if their offenses have not been the best for them. Waddle & Moore have not played well the last two years, and I just don’t like to buy into landing spots turning things around. I love buying into landing spots ELEVATING, but Waddle & Moore have simply not played well enough the last two years.

Other than the Rookies, which are attached to potentially stale ADP / could change, I do still like the idea of taking shots at lower price points on Travis Hunter. The biggest problems for Hunter last year were the expectations & the price point, but this year those are no longer an issue. Obviously his role on Defense may reduce his role too much for relevance, but most players even near the top of Tier 10 should be seen as easily Droppable under the right set of circumstances.

TE Rankings

Tier 1: Elite, Game-Changing Options & WR1s (TE1-2)

1. Brock Bowers (+1)

2. Trey McBride (-1)

Tier 2: Excellent Trend towards Elite, Game-Changing Potential (TE3)

3. Colston Loveland

Tier 3: A Target Monster with the path to being THE TE1 (TE4)

4. Tyler Warren

Tier 4: Lower chance to be THE TE1, but fairly strong bets to be A TE1 (TE5-8)

5. Tucker Kraft

6. Sam LaPorta (+2)

7. Harold Fannin Jr. (-1)

8. Kyle Pitts (-1)

Tier 5: A Speedy Recovery could lead to a Darkhorse Top TE Contender (TE9)

9. George Kittle (+2)

Tier 6: If a standard 1TE league, wait until the end and try to draft one of these players (TE10-18)

10. Dalton Kincaid

11. Travis Kelce (+4)

12. Isaiah Likely (+1)

13. Kenyon Sadiq (+7)

14. Dallas Goedert (-5)

15. Jake Ferguson (-1)

16. Juwan Johnson (+1)

17. Mark Andrews (-5)

18. Hunter Henry (-2)

TE18 by ADP: Brenton Strange

—

As mentioned above, do continue monitor injury situations. Sam LaPorta in particular could fall within his Tier considering he is ranked among other players in a Tier. When healthy, I want to target the core members of the Detroit Lions Offense even if there is potentially one too many.

Don’t know what the exact plan is, but I’m thinking on the next show I run through a series of quick Mock Drafts with my board and drafting from different positions.

As always, let me know if you have any comments/questions!

One quick PSA, which may have been mentioned before: there will be significant changes to the Podcast soon (no content changes). The written version of the Substack should stay the same, but the links to the podcast are likely not going to be embedded into Substack, but rather linked to Apple, Spotify, etc.

Thanks,

C.J.

For the following Mock Draft, the number in parentheses () by itself or before the double slash (//) is the difference between my Rankings and ADP. A number after the double slash (//) is the difference between this Mock Draft and my previous Mock Draft. I only mark players as previously unranked if they are in the first two rounds as the last mock Draft was only a 2-Round Mock Draft.

2026 Updated Rookie Mock Draft

1.01 Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals

1.02 Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans

1.03 Jordyn Tyson, WR, New Orleans Saints (+1)

1.04 Makai Lemon, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (+2)

1.05 Fernando Mendoza, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (-2)

1.06 Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks (-1)

1.07 K.C. Concepcion, WR, Cleveland Browns

1.08 Kenyon Sadiq, TE, New York Jets

1.09 Ty Simpson, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+2)

1.10 Denzel Boston, WR, Cleveland Browns (-1)

1.11 Omar Cooper Jr., WR, New York Jets (-1)

1.12 Antonio Williams, WR, Washington Commanders (+8)

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2.01 Zachariah Branch, WR, Atlanta Falcons (+5) // (+2)

2.02 Dezhaun Stribling, WR, San Francisco 49ers // (+3)

2.03 Eli Stowers, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (-2) // (-2)

2.04 Jonah Coleman, RB, Denver Broncos (-4) // (-2)

2.05 Ted Hurst, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) // (-1)

2.06 Germie Bernard, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)

2.07 Nicholas Singleton, RB, Tennessee Titans (-5)

2.08 Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, Baltimore Ravens (+2) // (+2)

2.09 Carson Beck, QB, Arizona Cardinals (-4) // UR

2.10 Chris Bell, WR, Miami Dolphins (-3) // (-2)

2.11 Caleb Douglas, WR, Miami Dolphins (+12)

2.12 Cade Klubnik, QB, New York Jets (+9) // UR

—

3.01 Cyrus Allen, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+4)

3.02 Max Klare, TE, Los Angeles Rams (+8) // (-3)

3.03 Demond Claiborne, RB, Minnesota Vikings (+3) // (-2)

3.04 Eli Raridon, TE, New England Patriots (+4)

3.05 Oscar Delp, TE, New Orleans Saints (+9)

3.06 Drew Allar, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)

3.07 Elijah Sarratt, WR, Baltimore Ravens (-8) // (-3)

3.08 Malachi Fields, WR, New York Giants (-7)

3.09 Mike Washington Jr., RB, Las Vegas Raiders (-9)

3.10 Emmett Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (-13)

3.11 Kaelon Black, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+2)

3.12 Zavion Thomas, WR, Chicago Bears (+11)

—

Mention: Chris Brazzell II, WR, Carolina Panthers

Top Unranked (By ADP): Kaytron Allen & Skyler Bell

Should have a full write-up for the post on Thursday! In the meantime, Questions are obviously fair game!

Thanks as always,

C.J.

Summer Scouting QB Rankings

1. Arch Manning, Texas

2. Dante Moore, Oregon

3. Julian Sayin, Ohio State

4. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma St. via North Texas

5. C.J. Carr, Notre Dame

6. Darian Mensah, Miami (FL) via Duke

7. Sam Leavitt, LSU via Arizona State

8. Jayden Maiava, USC

9. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

—

The Best Class in 3 Years, but not necessarily “Generational”

The 2027 QB Class finds itself in that awkward place where there really are a lot of reasons to believe in the upside & optimism, but ultimately it is at least in my eyes a bit “overrated.”

Comparing to Pre-Season perspectives — without the benefit of hindsight — none of the 2027 QBs would make my Top 6 between 2021-2027. Those 6 QBs would be Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Caleb Williams, & Drake Maye. While some of these QBs had flaws that were even apparent at the time like Bryce Young, these 6 came into their final years as what seemed to be nearly-locked Top 5-10 Picks, and even Arch Manning & Dante Moore may not have quite that much confidence.

2027 also did not quite live up to the expectation that we had this time last year. While Manning & Moore returning definitely lived up to one major part of the expectation, QBs who were supposed to threaten for the 1.01 like Dylan Raiola & D.J. Lagway — players who do not have the traits questions Julian Sayin & C.J. Carr have, nor the performance level questions that Drew Mestemaker has — failed to live up to expectations. When forecasting into the future, 2028 has similar high-trait sophomores like Bryce Underwood, Keelon Russell, & Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele, and while those three players could easily struggle similarly to Raiola & Lagway, particularly if a couple players from this Tier DO hit, we may have the kind of physical talents peaking at a young age that threaten the Top 6 mentioned above. If players like Mestemaker & Carr return, next year’s class may lack a Manning, but it could be a class with similar upside, but better prospects up top. This may not seem the most directly important for 2027, but in the context of labeling the class “Generational,” the path towards 2028 being a better QB class is very clear.

Manning & Moore have positioned themselves more than anyone else to simply continue their level of performance from the previous year and end up as Top 5-10 Picks in the NFL Draft, but at the very least it is fair to say that both of these QBs showcased more negative play and stretches of negative play compared to the QBs listed above. Manning & Moore will also be fourth year players, where all the players listed above entered the NFL Draft as Early Declares.

QB Tier 2 — Ranging from QB3 to QB8 — is likely the Tier that associates the most closely with both players like Garrett Nussmeier & Cade Klubnik last year, but also players like Fernando Mendoza & Cam Ward pre-season in their respective breakout seasons. MOST of these players will bust, but there is also a lot of opportunity and upside even ranging as high as being the #1 Overall Pick.

QB Tier 3 represents players with flaws that I see as a bit more fundamental. These flaws are wildly different as they are natural flaws for Chambliss & processing flaws for Sellers, but regardless, both prospects have a flaw that I see as a bit more “fundamental.”

Honorable Mentions

Brendan Sorsby, Texas Tech? via Cincinnati

C.J. Bailey, N.C. State ; Will Hammond, Texas Tech ; Nico Iamaleava, UCLA ; D.J. Lagway, Baylor via Florida ; Drake Lindsey, Minnesota ; John Mateer, Oklahoma ; Demond Williams Jr., Washington

Dylan Raiola, Oregon

—

Ignoring the entire Gambling Process — creating an alternate reality where that is a complete unknown and Brendan Sorsby is preparing to start the season for the Texas Tech Red Raiders — Brendan Sorsby would be a Tier 2 QB, and likely towards the upper end of the 2nd Tier. That doesn’t mean he should still be ranked there, as more than just the Gambling scandal itself, Sorsby will not be playing Football next year, which could be a major developmental negative. But considering that Football hasn’t been played for any of these players, I do think I can give a fairly honest assessment of where Sorsby would rank based on the positive rumors surrounding Sorsby’s NFL Potential before everything about Sorsby turned so sour, and that would be close to QB5 in the Summer Scouting Series. On raw traits, Sorsby would have an argument after LaNorris Sellers to have the best Traits among the ranked QBs.

Like with everything else recently, the Podcast is the best place to go for the detailed notes on the Honorable Mention Tier, but Demond Williams Jr. from Washington is the closest to being a ranked QB. He also fits nicely into Tier 3, with his fundamental flaw being his diminutive size. Raiola is ranked a “Tier” below as it is extremely unlikely he will be a member of the 2027 Class. For Devy, Raiola could arguably rank near the top of the Honorable Mentions.

Summer Scouting RB Rankings

1. Jadan Baugh, Florida

2. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss

3. Nate Frazier, Georgia

4. Justice Haynes, Georgia Tech via Michigan

5. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri

6. Antwan Raymond, Rutgers

7. L.J. Martin, BYU

8. Isaac Brown, Louisville

9. Wayshawn Parker, Utah

10. Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami (FL)

—

A deep class without a Love-level RB1

The strength of this class is demonstrated by the three returning RBs — Justice Haynes, L.J. Martin, & Mark Fletcher Jr. — who could have each been the RB2 in 2026. With how highly Jadarian Price was drafted, the NFL may disagree with that assessment, but at the very least these are prospects last year who projected to be ranked far more highly. The youth movement among the SEC RBs — Baugh, Lacy, Frazier, & Hardy most notably — has good potential to push down that group. However, no one in this class is very close to Jeremiyah Love, and that includes how Love was perceived this time last year.

Honorable Mentions

Jordan Marshall, Michigan & Waymond Jordan, USC

Texas & Texas Tech Starters (Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown, Cam Dickey, J’Koby Williams)

C.J. Baxter, Kentucky via Texas ; Desean Bishop, Tennessee ; Fluff Bothwell, Mississippi State ; Makhi Hughes, Houston via Oregon via Tulane ; Quinton Martin, Penn State ; Turbo Richard, Indiana via BC ; Duke Scott, N.C. State

—

Jordan Marshall has one of the strongest cases for inclusion in the main Summer Scouting Series, particularly because the main reason he does not make the cut has nothing to do with him or his ability — it has to do with the talent of one of the younger RBs on his team. True freshman Savion Hiter is being billed as one of those “special” players, and while he is not eligible for the NFL Draft until 2029, Hiter could be seen as the top RB on this team, and that would be a potential negative for Jordan Marshall. Coming off a year where Jadarian Price as the RB2 for Notre Dame was Drafted in the 1st Round, Marshall could deserve to be ranked regardless of this, but ultimately every other RB in my Rankings clearly was positioned to be the #1 RB on his team. Marshall may not be, but admittedly I may be weighing that factor too much. Waymond Jordan, the other RB listed on the same line, displayed excellent patience & vision in 2025, though he will need to stay healthy and already will enter the NFL a bit older than most RBs discussed as a part of this series.

I’m not sure if Smothers/Brown are going to split the Texas RB job or if one RB will win the majority of the role, but particularly if one RB becomes a force in this backfield, with all eyes on Manning, Coleman, & Wingo, a successful RB in this system could skyrocket draft boards, particularly players with the explosive ability that Smothers/Brown possess.

I covered Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List on the Podcast, and I don’t know if I’ll be doing any write-ups about the List, but one of the bigger surprises was N.C. State’s Duke Scott. The replacement for Hollywood Smothers who transfers to Texas, Scott could ultimately be the better RB for the next level. Scott has been an effective workhorse when given opportunity so far in his career, and he should be a focal point of the N.C. State Offense this year. Turbo Richard was one of the best players for Boston College last year as a 2nd year player. Now eligible for the first time, he should have an increased spotlight playing for Indiana & against Big Ten caliber defenses.

Summer Scouting WR Rankings

1. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

2. Cam Coleman, Texas via Auburn

3. Bryant Wesco, Clemson

4. Nick Marsh, Indiana via Michigan State

5. Ryan Coleman-Williams, Alabama

6. T.J. Moore, Clemson

7. Charlie Becker, Indiana

8. K.J. Duff, Rutgers

9. Ryan Wingo, Texas

10. Omarion Miller, Arizona State via Colorado

11. Mario Craver, Texas A&M

—

Everyone knows this is a strong WR Class — but it might still be underrated

Particularly if you’re someone who wants to see Cam Coleman prove it a bit more, there is still a gap in this class knowing exactly who will be those Top Tier WRs outside of Jeremiah Smith, but from a pre-season perspective most of all, the amount of players on the cusp of a breakout is simply special. Perhaps not all of them do breakout — and many of them will not — but the ones that do breakout will be the players we want to target most of all in our Fantasy leagues.

Underclassmen are not the only thing that is important for a class, but those potential early declares often make up the profiles we want to target the most. This time last year, my Top 5 Early Declare WRs for the 2026 NFL Draft were Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate, Eric Singleton Jr., Eugene Wilson III, & Zachariah Branch. The best season between Wilson & Branch was 538 Yards. One of Wilson’s biggest “positives” was an injury history that created an excuse for a lack of production. One of Branch’s biggest “positives” was that — despite being essentially played out of a role at USC — he was still being highly coveted by a program the level of Georgia. And those two players were Top 5 Underclassmen. (A minor note, K.C. Concepcion did not make my Top 5 due to his very poor 2024.)

In comparison, every single member of my Top 10 Underclassmen would have a better peak season than Wilson or Branch. And comparing by traits and archetypes, someone like Ryan Wingo — 2027 Underclassman WR9 — compares extremely favorably to someone like Eugene Wilson III — 2026 Underclassman WR4. They both have a similar negative towards their projected role as a potential gadget player, but Wingo is bigger, potentially more explosive, and has even been far more productive. The biggest advantage Wilson would have would be less an advantage, and more an excuse — the injuries. There are also several members of the Honorable Mentions about to be mentioned below that would profile more highly than either Wilson or Branch.

As much as I like Omarion Miller, he is probably one of the lowest I’ve graded a returning WR1 in my time of doing this — I can remember players like Olave, Odunze, Egbuka, Tyson — but there are still talented Seniors who can fill out the class as well.

When it comes to the Tiers themselves, while Cam Coleman is in a separate Tier, at this stage, I don’t necessarily agree with the idea that he’s “Closer to Smith than anyone else.” I think it would be easier for me to switch out Coleman for another Top 3-5 WR than it would be to switch out Smith for Coleman, either in rankings or when considering Tiers in trades. But Coleman still lands in his own Tier.

Talking Draft Grades, what makes this class so special is that the case for any of the Top 10-11 WRs making the 1st Round is not that hard to see. It is a bit tricky for Craver due to his size, which is why he lists at WR11, but most of these players have a strong foundation to have a good season and vault into the 1st Round.

Honorable Mentions

Deuce Alexander, Ole Miss ; Cooper Barkate, Miami (FL) via Duke; Duce Robinson, Florida State ; Eric Singleton Jr., Florida via Auburn ; Evan Stewart, Oregon ; Amare Thomas, Houston

Braylon Staley & Mike Matthews, Tennessee

Terrell Anderson, USC via N.C. State ; Jordan Shipp, North Carolina ; Wyatt Young, Oklahoma State via North Texas

—

These players are primarily split by experience. Particularly because there is only 1 returning player among my Top 11, I wanted to first highlight 4th+ Year Players, as the first Honorable Mentions Tier here may be a bit more likely to enter the NFL Draft following the 2026 Season.

Deuce Alexander & Amare Thomas are probably the players who have risen my rankings or at least my interest level the most throughout the process of the off-season. These players seem to have a steady drumbeat this off-season, and it would not surprise me if either one became NFL 2nd Round Picks, with even the potential to threaten Round 1 under the right circumstances. Alexander was also recently a member of Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List due to his ridiculous explosive ability and GPS Speeds reaching a rare 23 MPH.

Duce Robinson may be the biggest name, and he has a number of surface statistics as well as basic advanced numbers like Yards per Route Run that look very appealing. At the same time, Robinson has genuinely struggled in a number of games, occasionally failing to live up to the Targets he receives. Perhaps I am nitpicking a bit too much as Robinson does have considerable physical talent & he is a player I have been higher on in the past as a Sleeper, but I still have him in the Round 3-to-Early-Day-3 range, whereas those highest on Robinson see him as a fringe 1st Rounder.

Moving back into the younger players, The Tennessee label plays a bit of a role here, but honestly the top reason why Staley & Matthews failed to crack the Top 11 may simply be because there are two of them. One Tennessee SEC Receiver with a Top 100 Prospect background putting up ~800 Yards in their 2nd Year with a potential for an expanded role in Year 3 looks like a player who should be in the Top 12 for pre-season WRs, but two and it is harder to have confidence if either or both make that step to the next level. Staley is my early favorite, as he was the best producer in the toughest games, but Matthews does likely have the physical edge. Matthews was another Feldman’s Freaks List member, who also showcased insane explosive ability & speed including a reported 23 MPH GPS & 1.43s 10-Split.

Wyatt Young is one of the most productive returning players, but lower-conference production has been more of a red herring in recent years. Plus, with Young struggling in some of the harder competition games, I’m a bit more skeptical entering 2026. But Young’s struggles in those games may have been the result of his QB — Drew Mestemaker — struggling as well. With the two making the transition to Oklahoma State together, Young should have every opportunity to be the #1 Target earner in the Big 12, and he still has potential to enter the 2027 NFL Draft as a highly productive early declare.

Summer Scouting TE Rankings

1. Jamari Johnson, Oregon

2. Trey’Dez Green, LSU

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For Fantasy, there is a decent argument that both of these prospects enter this season in a better place than Kenyon Sadiq. They clearly don’t have the same testing athleticism, so how you account for that matters in how you would rank these TEs historically, but Sadiq’s big production claim-to-fame after the 2024 CFB Season was 2 Receptions, 30 Yards, & 2 TDs against Penn State. On the other hand, Trey’Dez Green has had a few truly explosive performances — in fact, in three years, Sadiq never accomplished what Green did in Year 2: a 100+ Yard Game. Jamari Johnson continued to perform well & consistently during the back half of 2025.

And the comparison advantages do not JUST come from production. Johnson & Green have excellent size. Kenyon Sadiq does not.

That isn’t to say these two are both better than Sadiq at all, but they at least have similarly strong Fantasy-based arguments.

Honorable Mentions

Benjamin Brahmer, Penn State via Iowa State ; Terrance Carter Jr., Texas Tech ; Lawson Luckie, Georgia ; Luke Reynolds, Virginia Tech via Penn State ; D.J. Vonnahme, Iowa ; Jaxxon Warren, North Carolina via Colorado State

A bit late this week and haven’t gotten around to my 2026 show yet, but it should be on the horizon!

The main podcast next week will transition back to Redraft to give my best advice for your Redraft leagues this season.

Questions & Comments welcome,

Thanks,

C.J.

There will be a Part 5 of the Series next week which will cover my biggest honorable mentions as well as my detailed notes on College Football teams that goes into not just 2027 Players, but 2028+ Players as well.

There may be some changes coming to the show/Substack soon, and I’ll discuss those a bit below.

LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (FULL PROFILE SAMPLE)

6’ 3” 238 lbs || (22.02)

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 2 Years

Pros:

• Elite physical talent including particularly interesting Fantasy upside with high-upside rushing potential

• For the perception of being such a raw QB, Sellers accuracy when set and particularly his Deep Accuracy are fantastic for a QB with his raw traits

• Lack of Offensive help likely contributed to his inability to take a step forward in 2025, so hopefully a new year and a new set of transfers and freshman can help Sellers prepare for the NFL level

Cons:

• While Sellers has improved in some ways in his ability to run scripted plays, when structure breaks down, Sellers instincts, reactions, and overall Quarterbacking ability is highly worrisome. Sellers does have a natural ability to avoid pressure and an Offensive Line that shoulders a lot of the blame, but the biggest problem driving his abysmal 24.5% Pressure-to-Sack% are his own instincts & reactions under pressure

• Another example of Sellers’ structure versus out-of-structure manifests in his splits between 1st Drives & 4th Quarters, as well as 1st/2nd Down versus 3rd/4th Down. On 1st Drives, Sellers had a passing success rate of 62.9%, but in the 4th Quarter, that number was all the way down at 27.5%. Similarly, while a Success% of 45.8% on 1st & 2nd Down may not seem great, Sellers’ Success% fell to 21.3% on 3rd & 4th Down. Put simply, Sellers struggles the most in all the situations where the QB is the most important.

GRADE: QB Tier 3 (QB9-10 || QB10)

A lot of potential, but serious concerns. There are many people who love Sellers and even see Sellers as someone who has taken significant steps forward from 2024 to 2025, but what I believe these people are missing is that Sellers has improved in his ability to play within structure. But it is not a given that Sellers will be a good out-of-structure QB just because he’s big & fast, and most evidence we have actually suggests that whenever instincts or unstructured decision making comes into play, LaNorris Sellers becomes a complete disaster. Unless Sellers shows clear improvement in his ability to read, react, & respond without the rehearsal of a schemed 1st Drive, he will not be someone considered as a 1st Round prospect here.

Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss

6’ 0” 205 lbs || (25.00)

GRADE: QB Tier 3 (QB9-10 || QB9)

Can Chambliss overcome his size, become more consistent, and rise to the 1st Round? Chambliss shows enough mobility that – despite being 25 YO at the start of his Rookie Season – there is still potential to become a 1st Round Draft Pick. But Chambliss’ faults are sometimes too exclusively placed on his lack of traits; while that is certainly the main issue, Chambliss did have a few hot & cold games throughout the season, and while his performance against Miami was simply “okay” on paper, it could have been far worse. This may seem like nitpicking, but the expectations for performance quality have to be very high when we’re talking about a 25 YO who won’t make a very strong traits-based argument based on his Height/Weight and raw arm talent.

Sam Leavitt, LSU via Arizona State

6’ 2” 216 lbs || (22.08)

GRADE: QB Tier 2 (QB3-8 || QB7)

Easy 1st Round Tools if the Performance can become more consistent with LSU & in the SEC. While Leavitt does have a bit of an injury excuse – and while there were a few specific high-upside areas with higher-difficulty throws & rushing where Leavitt showcased his upside – the overall performance & execution level for Leavitt in 2025 was not up to standard for a 1st Round QB. Leavitt does share some similarities to former Ole Miss (& Lane Kiffin) QB Jaxson Dart, and if he can adapt quickly in the exact same offensive scheme, Leavitt may be able to make that leap to the front of the 1st Round.

Summer Scouting QB Rankings (Part 4/Final)

1. Arch Manning, Texas

2. Dante Moore, Oregon

3. Julian Sayin, Ohio State

4. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma St. via North Texas

5. C.J. Carr, Notre Dame

6. Darian Mensah, Miami (FL) via Duke

7. Sam Leavitt, LSU via Arizona State

8. Jayden Maiava, USC

9. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida

6’ 1” 228 lbs || (3rd Year Unlisted; Estimated 21.01-22.03)

GRADE: RB Tier 1 (RB1-3 || RB1)

A top tier RB for 2027 with Size to set him apart. With excellent size and early career SEC production, Jadan Baugh seems like one of the highest floor RBs in this potential 2027 class. On top of that floor, Baugh’s pass catching upside and broken tackle ability also highlight his potential to be a perennial Fantasy RB1.

Wayshawn Parker, RB, Utah

5’ 10” 205 lbs || (3rd Year Unlisted; Estimated 21.01-22.03)

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB9)

An explosive playmaker with a chance to be a top player in the B12. Parker is a potential early declare RB with excellent efficiency both on the ground & as a receiver, but the fumbles & lower workload create doubt and place him near the bottom of the RB Summer Scouting rankings.

Summer Scouting RB Rankings (Part 4/Final)

1. Jadan Baugh, Florida

2. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss

3. Nate Frazier, Georgia

4. Justice Haynes, Georgia Tech via Michigan

5. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri

6. Antwan Raymond, Rutgers

7. L.J. Martin, BYU

8. Isaac Brown, Louisville

9. Wayshawn Parker, Utah

10. Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami (FL)

Cam Coleman, WR, Texas via Auburn

6’ 3” 200 lbs || (21.01)

GRADE: WR Tier 2 (WR2)

Elite potential who could be an excellent consolation prize after Smith. Coleman’s status as an elite prospect is still more potential than proof, but Coleman really did have a solid second season for a young potential early declare when you take the Auburn Passing Offense into consideration. Coleman enters the 2027 NFL Draft cycle in a very similar place to Carnell Tate last year, though I would argue that Coleman’s early film is more explosive & his proportional production at Auburn sets him apart analytically in a tier above where Tate was this time last year.

Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana

6’ 4” 207 lbs || (21.03 OR 22.03)

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR7)

A catch-point monster who could become a Round 1 WR in 2027. Becker is a very appealing WR between size, straightline speed, & fantastic production + efficiency once he started getting opportunities after Elijah Sarratt’s injury. While Becker’s production came largely from proficiency at the catch point and in contested catch situations, he was elite in those areas. If Becker maintains that elite performance OR diversifies his role a bit more in Year 3, he could see himself enter the 1st Round conversation.

Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M

5’ 9” 180 lbs || (21.08)

GRADE: WR Tier 4 (WR11)

Green flag production numbers, Red flag size. Craver did experience a production fall-off during the season, but considering he is such a young player, the overall production, efficiency, & broken tackle ability on top of it all would translate to a prospect who should be looked at near the top of a Draft Class – if not for the fact that Craver has genuine Red Flag size. It isn’t impossible to succeed at a listed 5’ 9”, 165 lbs, but in a WR Class this deep, it does keep Craver out of the Top 10 conversation, and several WRs below Craver like the Tennessee duo in Braylon Staley or Mike Matthews could have a case to surpass Craver as well, even if they are not currently in this Summer Scouting Series at all. If Craver can maintain that overall production and efficiency – particularly if he can add a bit more consistency – then he should still have a pretty strong case to be at least a Round 3 pick in the actual NFL Draft with potential to go higher.

Summer Scouting WR Rankings (Part 4/Final)

1. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

2. Cam Coleman, Texas via Auburn

3. Bryant Wesco, Clemson

4. Nick Marsh, Indiana via Michigan State

5. Ryan Coleman-Williams, Alabama

6. T.J. Moore, Clemson

7. Charlie Becker, Indiana

8. K.J. Duff, Rutgers

9. Ryan Wingo, Texas

10. Omarion Miller, Arizona State via Colorado

11. Mario Craver, Texas A&M

Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon

6’5” 257 lbs || (3rd Year Unlisted; Estimated 21.01-22.03)

GRADE: TE Tier 1 (TE1-2 || TE1)

Johnson outshined Sadiq to conclude 2025 – can he build on that and become a better (Fantasy) TE prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft. At other positions, Johnson’s delayed start to production would be a far bigger negative, but the TE position seems to work a bit differently. Last year Kenyon Sadiq was a 3rd Year player and Johnson was a 3rd Year player – even if it was his 1st year with Oregon – so traditional wisdom says that Sadiq is clearly the better prospect. But what Oregon tapped into with Johnson at the end of the season last year has a potential to be special, and at 6’ 5”, 257 lbs, Johnson also has ideal size which Sadiq always lacked.

Summer Scouting TE Rankings (Part 4/Final)

1. Jamari Johnson, Oregon

2. Trey’Dez Green, LSU

Once again, while the main Rankings & Player Profiles are complete on the Summer Scouting Series, Part 5 is still to come to wrap up the series and talk about any players not discussed in the last four episodes.

Next week will also feature an updated 3-Round 2026 Mock Draft. Most likely, the 2026 Mock Draft will be released on Monday or Tuesday, with Part 5 of the Summer Scouting Series releasing Thursday next week.

There also may be some changes around the corner with the podcast! Like all change, there will be some pros & some cons, but not too much should change for most people. Specifically, the biggest change will likely be for Substack users who listen to the podcast as part of the Substack App. Regardless of any potential changes, my same write-ups will be posted on this Substack, and a link to the podcast will be posted here as well, but there is a chance it is not embedded the same way in the future. While this may cause some inconvenience, this is a new opportunity for the podcast/Substack and one that seems to make the most sense at this time.

Questions & Comments about anything welcome,

C.J.

Like always, the Fantasy for Real podcast is the best place to find my detailed notes & thoughts on these prospects.

Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State

6’ 1” 208 lbs || (22.02)

GRADE: QB Tier 2 (QB3-8 || QB3)

Are the tools enough? As the Cons show, Julian Sayin’s 2025 performance was far from flawless, but if Sayin didn’t just have the prospect pedigree but had the size, athleticism, & arm talent of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or even C.J. Stroud, then Sayin would be likely the QB1 of this class with an argument to be a Tier above Manning & Moore. Instead, Sayin’s lack of size & mobility combined with an arm that might just be “good enough” put a lot of pressure on Sayin’s 2026 performance. If Sayin has similar struggles against better Defenses, his status as a 1st Round Prospect may be controversial, with potential that he returns to Ohio State to prove what he can be without Jeremiah Smith.

Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State via North Texas

6’ 3” 211 lbs || (21.08)

GRADE: QB Tier 2 (QB3-8 || QB4)

The most interesting prospect in College Football? While there are differences, Mestemaker’s journey to this point is reminiscent of former 1st Overall pick Cam Ward – but not from when Ward was at Miami. On paper, Mestemaker’s move to Oklahoma State more resembles Ward’s move to Washington State three seasons before his eventual ascension to the #1 Overall Pick. 2025 gave Mestemaker enough of a foundation that he could rise enough throughout the 2026 Season to become a 1st Round Pick, but right now that seems a bit more far off, which is why Mestemaker is my QB most strongly projected to return to college targeting the 2028 NFL Draft. However, Mestemaker – a HS back-up QB who walked on to North Texas – remains one of the most fascinating prospects and stories to follow this year in College Football.

Jayden Maiava, QB, USC

6’4” 225 lbs || (23.05)

GRADE: QB Tier 2 (QB3-8 || QB8)

Can Maiava continue to take the next step in his development? Between his size, solid mobility to extend plays, and touch passing, Jayden Maiava has a good foundation to improve on, and has improved consistently throughout his career. However, Maiava has performed far more like a Day 2 QB to date, and so he’ll need to continue to improve & develop throughout the 2026 Season.

Summer Scouting QB Rankings (Part 3)

1. Arch Manning, Texas

2. Dante Moore, Oregon

3. Julian Sayin, Ohio State

4. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma St. via North Texas

5. C.J. Carr, Notre Dame

6. Darian Mensah, Miami (FL) via Duke

8. Jayden Maiava, USC

9. -

10. -

Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss

5’ 11” 205 lbs || (21.02)

GRADE: RB Tier 1 (RB1-3 || RB2)

Makes the first guy miss. He may not be as big as Baugh or quite as skilled as Hardy when it comes to breaking tackles, but Lacy successfully makes the first defender miss at a fairly high rate. As a potential 3-Down back, the only question will be how highly his athletic upside profiles.

Justice Haynes, RB, Georgia Tech via Michigan (FULL PROFILE SAMPLE)

5’ 11” 210 lbs || (22.10)

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 2 Years*

Pros:

• Highly touted prospect from HS who broke out in Year 3 with Michigan

• Big play threat who is dangerous in space or with a clear running lane

• Haynes started & finished 6 Games for the Wolverines, and in each game, Haynes had at least 100 Rushing Yards and 1 Rushing TD. Considering his former prospect status and big play upside, a full season with that kind of performance may have made Haynes extremely interesting heading into the 2026 NFL Draft.

Cons:

• Struggled to find footing in first two years with Alabama

• While the consistency of Haynes’ performance this year for Michigan is impressive, not only is it ultimately a 6 or 6.5 Game sample, but back-up RB Jordan Marshall also stepped in and had 133/1, 185/3, & 142/2 in the first 3 Games Haynes missed due to injury, failing to reach 100/1 only against Ohio State – a game where he struggled to play through injury and was actually very efficient with 61 Yards on only 7 Carries. Haynes’ film and prospect status dating back to HS can certainly define who he will be at the NFL level, but when it comes to proof, Haynes proof is not only limited in the size of the sample, but it is difficult to really know how much the production at Michigan last year says about Haynes.

• Haynes caught only 13 Passes for 50 Yards in 2025. While he does project to be a RB who catches the ball out of the backfield more, this is yet another area where Haynes lacks significant proof

• Some advanced metrics like Missed Tackles Forced fairly mediocre

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB4)

After a breakout half-season, Haynes is poised to be one of the top Fantasy players in the ACC. It would not have been surprising if Justice Haynes stayed in College OR left Michigan, but doing both was a bit of a surprise. While that is a risk, it gives us a huge opportunity to see Haynes in a second environment where he should be the focal point of the Offense, hopefully getting work as a Receiver as well.

Summer Scouting RB Rankings (Part 3)

1. -

2. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss

3. Nate Frazier, Georgia

4. Justice Haynes, Georgia Tech via Michigan

5. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri

6. Antwan Raymond, Rutgers

7. L.J. Martin, BYU

8. Isaac Brown, Louisville

9. -

10. Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami (FL)

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

6’ 3” 223 lbs || (21.09)

GRADE: WR Tier 1 (WR1)

Nobody’s perfect. Don’t get me wrong – there are still areas of route nuance and development that Smith can improve upon – but that’s less a negative and more the reality of the NFL being more difficult than College Football. The NFL is so difficult that anyone can fail, but Smith is as good of a prospect as we’ll likely ever see – particularly if he lands the plane with a final season that matches his first two.

K.J. Duff, WR, Rutgers

6’ 6” 225 lbs || (21.09)

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR8)

Yes, he’s a “contested catch” guy – but he’s also very good at it. While bigger, faster, quicker, stronger is typically the right direction, there is something to be said about how few players at the highest level are Duff’s size or archetype. Despite those concerns – which are a major reason that he finishes ranks towards the bottom of this wide Tier – Duff scores very highly in all the areas typically seen as most important; Duff plays in the Big Ten, and has produced early (played most of last season at 19 YO), at a high level (1,000) & with strong efficiency (2.47 Y/RR).

Omarion Miller, WR, Arizona State via Colorado

6’ 2” 210 lbs || (23.08)*

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR10)

The “wide-awake” sleeper of the 2027 NFL Draft. Miller’s overall production has been hampered by injuries (2023-2024) & an awful Offense (2025), but any deep evaluation of the numbers (Career Y/RR, Colorado Passing/Team Stats 2025) shows a player who by all accounts has performed well enough to be a highly-productive CFB player. Age is an objective factor and one that Miller clearly scores negatively in (presuming my listed age is correct), so he does have a bit of an uphill battle analytically at least in some ways, but there is a huge target vacancy at ASU with Jordyn Tyson graduating to the NFL. If he can make the most of that opportunity, Miller has strong enough height/weight/speed potential to get in the 1st Round conversation.

Summer Scouting WR Rankings (Part 3)

1. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

2. -

3. Bryant Wesco, Clemson

4. Nick Marsh, Indiana via Michigan State

5. Ryan Coleman-Williams, Alabama

6. T.J. Moore, Clemson

7. -

8. K.J. Duff, Rutgers

9. Ryan Wingo, Texas

10. Omarion Miller, Arizona State via Colorado

11. -

Final Episode: LaNorris Sellers, Trinidad Chambliss, Sam Leavitt, Jadan Baugh, Wayshawn Parker, Cam Coleman, Charlie Becker, Mario Craver, & Jamari Johnson

One small adjustment to next week’s episode, I am including Sam Leavitt, so the Summer Scouting Series will cover 33 Players in total prior to part 5. Next will be Part 4, featuring the players listed above.

No creative changes, but there also may be some changes to the Podcast/Substack in the near future. Stay tuned to this Substack & the podcast for any and all updates.

Thanks,

C.J.

The Podcast for Part 1 covered changing eligibility in College Football, specifically 5-for-5, but I did not write that up in the Part 1 Substack post, so I’m adding a bit at the top of this edition covering potential changes and impacts moving forward with 5-for-5.

8 more prospects covered today and by the end of this Podcast/Substack post, half the Summer Scouting Series will be completed with 16 of 32 Prospect finished.

Thanks for reading as always and consider Subscribing if you have not done so yet!

Could Five-for-Five impact the 2027 Class?

College Sports have made a landmark decision to change the eligibility rules to a “5-for-5” method giving each player 5 years after entering College Athletics or turning 19 YO, doing away with the redshirt system.

This has a direct and immediate impact on current college player’s future earning potential: A big part of the hype for the 2027 NFL Draft Class is the early production & performance from potential highly touted early Declares. These players who have played a lot of football, in the redshirt method, would retain only 1 season of eligibility after this Season. With 5-for-5, every single early declare is now eligible for not just 2026 & 2027, but the 2028 CFB Season as well.

In effect, this is going to double the future CFB earning potential for a massive number of early declare prospects in the 2027 Prospective Class.

Aside from that fact, out of 32 Prospects in my Summer Scouting Series, only 2 -- Jayden Maiava & Trinidad Chambliss -- are out of eligibility. The other 30 prospects all retain eligibility with 5-for-5, and even some of the prospects who don’t make the series -- like Duce Robinson & Eric Singleton Jr. -- are now eligible for the 2027 CFB Season when they previously would not have been before 5-for-5. Through two parts of the Summer Scouting series, not a single prospect of the first 16 are out of remaining eligibility. L.J. Martin & Mark Fletcher would have been in this category under the previous method, but they retain eligibility for 2027 with 5-for-5.

This likely will not have an impact on the higher level prospects, but it absolutely could have an impact on the depth and middle tier of the class which is highly coveted.

On the one hand, I don’t want to overstate the importance of 5-for-5. On the other hand, it is something I don’t see talked about at all yet, and it could have a pretty significant impact to compound the effect of NIL. In many ways, this is a more significant difference compared to NIL. It will be interesting to see how exactly it impacts Draft Classes moving forward.

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

6’ 3” 206 lbs || (22.03)

GRADE: QB Tier 1 (QB1-2 || QB2)

A “safe” QB prospect who could take another step with a 2nd Year of experience. There are some concerns under pressure which threaten the “safe” label, but Moore’s overall performance in 2025 was excellent with every reason to believe in a repeat season in 2026. Perhaps more importantly, Moore is the “floor > ceiling” player compared to Arch Manning in my top two, but Moore still can improve. Not only will the increased experience help Moore analytically, but more comfort, confidence, and a potential National Championship run could establish Moore as a clearly better version of the QB who may have been the 1.02 in the 2026 NFL Draft.

C.J. Carr, QB, Notre Dame

6’ 2” 215 lbs || (22.03)

GRADE: QB Tier 2 (QB3-7 || QB5)

Promising, but still largely untested. C.J. Carr had a very encouraging 2nd Year in College Football and shows high-upside passing potential, but with only 12 Starts and questionable performance against the better teams on Notre Dame’s schedule, Carr is someone who likely needs to have a big 2026 to cement himself in the 2027 NFL Draft. As is, Carr is a player who projects more clearly for the 2028 NFL Draft as things currently stand, though that can change particularly with a deep playoff run.

Summer Scouting QB Rankings (Part 2)

1. Arch Manning, Texas

2. Dante Moore, Oregon

3. -

4. -

5. C.J. Carr, Notre Dame

6. Darian Mensah, Miami (FL) via Duke

7. -

8. -

9. -

Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri

5’ 10” 210 lbs || (21.08)

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB5)

Step one is Recovery, Step two is trying to overcome the shortcomings. Setting aside a very serious situation which could push him into the 2028 NFL Draft depending on his short-term recovery, Ahmad Hardy’s big questions come down to his extreme pros & cons. Many RBs get defined as being “good” but “not good enough” – Hardy is quite a bit different. Some of the most important traits for Hardy are either Elite (Contact Balance / Forcing Missed Tackles) or putrid (Pass Catching utilization).

Antwan Raymond, RB, Rutgers

5’ 11” 205 lbs || (3rd Year Unlisted; Estimated 21.01-22.03)

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB6)

A dark horse RB with potential to rise NFL Draft Boards. Raymond may not have the flashiest athletic profile, and his game-to-game consistency can hopefully improve in 2026, but Raymond shows an excellent combination of breaking tackles, shiftiness in space, & the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield leading to a potential projection as a 3-Down NFL Starting RB.

L.J. Martin, RB, BYU

6’ 2” 225 lbs || (4th Year Unlisted; Estimated 22.01-23.03)

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB7)

Potential Fantasy dream as a Big, pass catching RB. One of the most productive RBs in CFB last season, Martin would have been a candidate for my RB2 pre-draft if he declared for the 2026 NFL Draft instead of returning to BYU. With great size & a relatively high reception total in 2025, Martin is also a perfect fit for Fantasy Football. Overall, he’s another player who likely lands as a “higher-floor, lower-ceiling” projection towards the 3rd/4th Round, but unlike Miami RB Mark Fletcher, Martin flashing potential as a pass catcher creates more potential upside for Fantasy.

Summer Scouting RB Rankings (Part 2)

1. -

2. -

3. Nate Frazier, Georgia

4. -

5. Ahmad Hardy, Missouri

6. Antwan Raymond, Rutgers

7. L.J. Martin, BYU

8. Isaac Brown, Louisville

9. -

10. Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami (FL)

Bryant Wesco, WR, Clemson

6’2” 190 lbs || (21.11)

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 3 Years*

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR3)

Without injury, Wesco was on pace to become the next “big name” in the 2027 NFL Draft. That injury – a spinal injury – could cause him to miss time, regress, or push into the 2028 NFL Draft, but if Wesco hits the ground running in 2026 at the same pace he started the 2025 Season, Wesco will be a clear 1st Round NFL Prospect. On the field, Wesco will still need to develop his consistency while getting stronger at the catch point. His explosive speed is clearly his biggest advantage right now, which may not carry him as far at the NFL level.

Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama (FULL PROFILE SAMPLE)

6’ 0” 182 lbs || (20.07)

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 3 Years*

Pros:

• Special mover who can separate Deep & Underneath while also being slippery as a YAC player

• Despite downturn in performance, Ryan Coleman-William still has elite age adjusted production with 1,554 Receiving Yards & 12 Receiving TDs against a primarily SEC schedule all before turning 19 YO

• Similarly, despite all production flaws, Coleman-Williams maintains a career 2.16 Y/RR alongside 10+ Forced Missed Tackles in each season, which would both score near the top of the underclassmen

• Age likely increases the potential for RCW’s mistakes to be seen as fixable, as well as creates opportunity for elite analytical upside

Cons:

• By the numbers, RCW may have the worst hands of any major prospect in at least the 2020s; Coleman-Williams has a career 14.9% Drop% which was up to 16.9% Drop% in 2025

• Most numbers got worse in 2025, including a declining Y/RR (2.51 → 1.84)

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR5)

Catch the damn ball. There will be factors outside of Drops – like Coleman-Williams’ size (negative) or his age / Development potential (positive) – but realistically if Coleman-Williams just catches the football at a league-average rate, he’ll be an easy 1st Rounder and likely top 20 pick. What’s perhaps most striking from Coleman-Williams is the 1.84 Y/RR last year – because while that number is not great for the NFL as a prospect necessarily, it is a number that suggests an effective contributor at the SEC level. Which means at 18 YO and dropping 1 of 6 catchable passes, Coleman-Williams was still effective and efficient enough to be a (analytically speaking) net positive. Being as good as he has been in spite of his Drop issues shows how special Ryan Coleman-Williams could be if he got the Drops under control.

Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas

6’2” 211 lbs || (21.06)

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR9)

An explosive WR who truly has Elite athletic potential and upside. There are obviously many great athletic prospects, and so it is important to highlight what makes Wingo different: physically, he might check every box. He is explosive & dynamic. He moves well in space & changes direction. He has long speed. Not only that, but Wingo achieves all of this while being listed at not just 6’ 2”, but a well-built 211 lbs. Someone like Nyck Harbor might be a more “special” athlete depending on how you define it with his far greater size and better track speed, but Harbor does not have the ease of movement outside of a straight line. Despite this, Wingo has never achieved the success someone like that should at Texas. For a player who takes a fair number of shorter passes, Wingo’s Catch% is fairly poor, and much of his surface production came beating up on lesser competition. Wingo has every tool and opportunity in front of him, including less pressure now as the presumed #2 behind Cam Coleman, but he’ll need to translate that high upside athleticism into an ability to beat CBs on Saturday before he can dream of beating CBs on Sunday.

Summer Scouting WR Rankings (Part 2)

1. -

2. -

3. Bryant Wesco, Clemson

4. Nick Marsh, Indiana via Michigan State

5. Ryan Coleman-Williams, Alabama

6. T.J. Moore, Clemson

7. -

8. -

9. Ryan Wingo, Texas

10. -

11. -

Next Episode: Julian Sayin, Drew Mestemaker, Jayden Maiava, Kewan Lacy, Justice Haynes, Jeremiah Smith, K.J. Duff, Omarion Miller

Questions & Comments welcome,

Thanks as always,

C.J.

Today’s Podcast & Substack features the first eight Summer Prospect Profiles for the 2027 NFL Draft. The Podcast for the Summer Scouting Series will focus on important background details, key takeaways & ranking/grade, as well as the most important Pros & Cons for the prospects entering the 2026 CFB Season.

The write-up today will feature primarily the key takeaways with some additional background. The Pros & Cons — which feature a few more numbers — are all available on the Podcast for Free, but the full 2027 Scouting Guide with all 32 Scouting Profiles already released can be found through the PAID/EARLY ACCESS Tier of the Substack.

As always, Questions & Comments are welcome including anything about the players mentioned on today’s show.

PART 1

Arch Manning, QB, Texas

6’ 4” 226 lbs || (23.04*)

GRADE: QB Tier 1 (QB1-2 || QB1)

Caught between two extremes. There are many who see Arch Manning as the obvious 1.01 and a clear & obvious 1st Round pick, but that position does come with significant assumptions: Progression isn’t always continuous, and regression back to early 2025 is certainly possible. Similarly, many see Manning as nothing more than a name on the back of a jersey – a legacy that Arch individually has played no part in. However, while it is true that Manning would never get the level of recognition & popularity (good & bad) he does without his last name, putting everything on just the name ignores a rare combination of traits that specifically will hold value in Fantasy Football if he becomes a starter at the NFL Level. Additionally, while improvements do need to be made, his ability to move in the pocket, step-up, and select when to run create foundational building blocks that set him apart from other mobile QBs like LaNorris Sellers.

*Age Reminder: All ages are Year.Month as of September 1st, 2027 to compare to players in previous seasons.

Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (FL) via Duke

6’ 3” 205 lbs || (22.07)

GRADE: QB Tier 2 (QB3-7 || QB6)

Can Mensah become a CONSISTENT high-level performer in 2027? Mensah may have enough arm talent to go in the 1st Round, but he’s in that category where performance has to matter a great deal. There were some flashes last year, but the level of consistency did not necessarily translate to a 1st Round QB. Mensah is still young with a strong possibility that the Miami situation helps to elevate him into a clear 1st Round prospect.

Summer Scouting QB Rankings (Part 1)

1. Arch Manning, Texas

2. -

3. -

4. -

5. -

6. Darian Mensah, Miami (FL) via Duke

7. -

8. -

9. -

Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia

5’ 10” 205 lbs || (21.11)

GRADE: RB Tier 1 (RB1-3 || RB3)

Flashes of 3-Down explosive potential. Frazier needs to become a more consistent RB, which includes building on his late 2025 performance & continuing to hold on to the Football. The appeal for Frazier is simple, and becomes a bit more obvious in the context of PART 1: while some RBs are thunder (Fletcher) & others are lightning (Brown), Frazier shows just enough potential to be both alongside a game that seems to transition smoothly to the NFL level – if he can show that his lack of pass catching so far is a result of the system.

Isaac Brown, RB, Louisville

5’ 9” 190 lbs || (22.06)

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB8)

Small, but explosive. It is becoming more rare than unheard of, but Brown’s size is still a massive negative for a RB prospect. And while Brown has had solid volume, when comparing to Achane who came into the NFL at a very similar size to Brown, Achane didn’t just have 15 Touches/G like Brown – Achane had 23.2 Touches/G in the SEC during his final season. Brown needs to show substantial improvement in some of the finer details, like Receiving Performance & reducing Fumbles.

Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami (FL)

6’ 2” 225 lbs || (22.10)

GRADE: RB Tier 2 (RB4-10 || RB10)

Brings the Thunder. Fletcher reminds me of Jonah Coleman this time last year – if you’re looking for a higher floor RB who might have a good chance of going in at least the 3rd/4th Round, Fletcher may be your guy, but that also may be closer to his ceiling. Fletcher will need to be more consistent with explosive plays & as a pass catcher to prove his ceiling is a bit higher.

Summer Scouting RB Rankings (Part 1)

1. -

2. -

3. Nate Frazier, Georgia

4. -

5. -

6. -

7. -

8. Isaac Brown, Louisville

9. -

10. Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami (FL)

Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana via Michigan State (FULL PROFILE SAMPLE)

6’ 3” 213 lbs || (20.11)

Eligibility Remaining (including 2026): 3 Years*

Pros:

• Fantastic Size with potential to be prototypical outside WR

• Flashes rare elite Missed Tackles Forced ability for a 6’ 3” WR

• Instantly the #1 WR in a Big Ten Offense (Michigan State) in first two years as a Top 200 HS Recruit

• Extremely Young Prospect who, while not as young as Ryan Coleman-Williams, would be younger than any Day 1-2 QB/RB/WR/TE Drafted in the last Five Year, turning 21 after September of his Rookie Season.

Cons:

• Took a step up in Targets in 2025 (62 → 97) but did not come with any added production (649 → 662) ; Y/RR dropped from 2.11 → 1.72

• Drops are a modest question with 10 Drops (9.2%) over the course of his career alongside a poor contested conversion% in 2025

• The transfer likely puts Marsh in a better offensive system, but now he’ll need to compete with fellow 2027 WR Charlie Becker to be the WR1 even in this Indiana room

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR4)

Elite do-it-all potential. At 6’ 3” with elite YAC potential and as the #1 WR for his team the previous two seasons, Nick Marsh flashes the potential to be a bonafide #1 Target monster in the NFL. And with Sarratt & Cooper Jr. departing Indiana, Marsh should have plenty of opportunity to have the big season he still needs before the NFL Draft.

T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson

6’ 3” 205 lbs || (21.05)

GRADE: WR Tier 3 (WR3-10 || WR6)

A “good” prospect or a “great” prospect. As a 5-Star prospect, potential 21 YO Rookie, and a player who has at least 800+ Yards already in a 13-G season, Moore has a good argument for Day 2 of the NFL Draft right now. But trajectory – reaching his milestones so quickly – is Moore’s biggest advantage; he hasn’t wowed in particular advanced metrics, and the level of performance on the field is that of a contributing player, not an elite performer. Taking that next step forward will be crucial if Moore wants to enter the 1st Round conversation in this class.

Summer Scouting WR Rankings (Part 1)

1. -

2. -

3. -

4. Nick Marsh, Indiana via Michigan State

5. -

6. T.J. Moore, Clemson

7. -

8. -

9. -

10. -

11. -

Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU

6’ 7” 237 lbs || (3rd Year Unlisted; Estimated 21.01-22.03)

GRADE: TE Tier 1 (TE1-2 || TE2)

The “basketball player” TE. While there aren’t many NFL hits at his size – which could create some doubt – the potential is clear for Trey’Dez Green to be a difference-making Red Zone threat with big play potential.

Summer Scouting TE Rankings (Part 1)

1. -

2. Trey’Dez Green, LSU

The Podcast was about 80 minutes today, and that is right around the goal for this Series moving forward.

Part 2 will feature the next 8 Prospects in the Summer Scouting Series, Dante Moore, QB, Oregon; C.J. Carr, QB, Notre Dame; Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri; Antwan Raymond, RB, Rutgers; L.J. Martin, RB, BYU; Bryant Wesco, WR, Clemson; Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama; & Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas

I will continue to fill out these Rankings above as we move through the Summer Scouting Series.

Question & Comments welcome,

Thanks as always,

C.J.

I’ve added a section to the PAID Version, putting a small summary after the Pros & Cons of each player. Most likely, these write-ups will go into the main Substack, while some of the specific numbers from the Pros/Cons stay on the PAID Guide — though most if not all of these figures will be discussed on the podcast.

The first version also did not include my Summer Scouting profiles for K.J. Duff, Mario Craver, or L.J. Martin, which have all been added at this point.

Read more

This Mock Draft is not necessarily a perfect example of the choices that I would make each and every time I am on the clock, but it at least helps to highlight some of my biggest differences from the consensus particularly when it comes to how the QB, RB, WR, & TE Tiers align with one another.

(If you’ve reached out to me about something recently, I am a bit busy this week, but will try to respond to some emails this Weekend).

All 120 Picks can be found on this Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U-tC7DwyQE5G4ZhPP7RNJiwuHhpwe7FmeUG1K-i19R4/edit?usp=sharing

The previous three posts have dealt with my biggest differences from ADP, so there aren’t as many player specific notes today, but I wanted to highlight a few places where the consensus said something about my Tiers.

QB: Targeting the Top 18, Fading QB19+

While Mendoza & Jordan Love are in my QB14-19 Tier as well and are a bit below the consensus, in general, I rate the Tier of QBs ranked 14-19 very highly, putting an emphasis on both Dak Prescott & Jared Goff for contenders, Fernando Mendoza & Tyler Shough for a more long-term view, and Jordan Love for something a bit in-between. Prescott, Goff, & Shough in particular are all ranked significantly above the consensus.

In contrast, Cam Ward, Baker Mayfield, & Sam Darnold make up a good portion of the next Tier (QB19-23), but I am a bit lower on this group.

While Mayfield and Darnold have had good season-ending finishes in years like 2023 (for Baker) & 2025 (for Darnold), placing them near a year-end QB1, Mayfield & Darnold have only been truly good for Fantasy in 2024. Darnold’s QB13 finish in 2025 comes with only 14.7 PPG, which ranks 27th in PPG.

Every year you can acquire some variety of cheap starter — Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers, the Falcons — and the issue here becomes struggling to see Mayfield/Darnold as a significant advantage over that archetype year-over-year. I’m convinced Jared Goff is a significant upgrade on that Tier for a number of years, and that’s what separates him from this pack. But I am not convinced right now that what Mayfield/Darnold provide statistically will be a significant advantage over just rotating QBs like Geno Smith & Jacoby Brissett & any other young player throughout the Season. Speaking towards Darnold, part of his QB27 finish included finishing below QBs like Carson Wentz & Jameis Winston in PPG, suggesting random starters with single appearances might be worth starting over Darnold if 2026 repeats 2025.

RB: Pushing together the Top 10, Big Fall Off to RB11

There is a lot of appeal with TreVeyon Henderson & Quinshon Judkins has highly drafted, highly touted players, but the issue they run into is that within their own Tier, they are explicitly not the best RBs for trying to win in a 1-2 Year Window, and within that context, if I’m targeting rebuilding assets or assets that have high long-term upside, the amount of young talented WRs and the ambiguity among those young talented WRs probably makes most rebuilding or long-term teams focus more towards the WR position. Even in this draft where Henderson & Judkins fell to the later 5th, there’s a very solid argument that some of the early 6th Round WRs like Odunze, BTJ, & MHJ are just as well situated to take that next step. Henderson & Judkins probably have a higher short-term floor, but they need to make that next leap same as the WRs who have not done so yet.

This is also reflected by players in the Top of the 3-10 Range — like Love & Jeanty — going a bit below their current consensus, while RBs at the Bottom of the 3-10 Range — like KW3 & Hall — get boosted a bit as being the last two RBs before a huge Tier drop.

WR: Valuing expected production in 2026

A bit different from the previous categories, but ultimately the biggest difference here is how I’m valuing good players who I expect to have at least good years this year compared to players with higher upside (Burden, Egbuka, etc.) who are less likely to be 1,000-1,100+ receivers compared to players who have done it before at a very young age like Zay Flowers & Jameson Williams.

Perhaps this changes in a league without trades, but De’Von Achane & Kyren Williams — even if they play at a different position — have done a good job highlighting why future concerns about Zay Flowers’ target competition might be a bit overblown. Achane & Williams have significant reasons to believe their situations have gotten worse, but that is being completely overwhelmed in the market compared to Achane & Williams having another strong year which helps solidify their overall talent. The fears for Flowers if the Ravens add a major WR prior to 2027 are well founded, but if Flowers has another great year around 1,100-1,200 yards or even has the best year of his career, that is going to be weigh more heavily next year than the change in situation. Ultimately, Flowers & Jameson are ranked where they are because while certain players might have a better chance of being this year’s JSN, these are two players who feel very likely to improve their value from this off-season to next off-season.

TE: Kraft v Warren

Tyler Warren was discussed in a bit more detail on the previous podcast, but considering how few options there are that truly matter at the TE position, my biggest change from consensus is swapping Tucker Kraft & Tyler Warren — not just as TEs 4 & 5, but by the general consensus, Kraft was drafted 15 spots above KTC while Warren was drafted 16 spots below. Each player was off by ~1.5 Rounds in either direction.

NEXT WEEK begins the Summer Scouting Series for 2027

Every Prospect will be broken down by background information like Height, Weight, Age, College, & Remaining Eligibility as well as a basic scouting report focusing on the Biggest Pros & Cons for all 32 Prospects. These Pros & Cons will include both Observations from Scouting & watching College Football as well as Statistics & Metrics which work to highlight the most important strengths & weaknesses of all 24 Prospects.

Thursday’s Show will include:

• Arch Manning, QB, Texas

• Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (FL) via Duke

• Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia

• Isaac Brown, RB, Louisville

• Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami (FL)

• Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana via Michigan State

• T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson

• Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU

Each profile will try to be less than 10 Minutes, and I will be ranking each player for my pre-season Summer Scouting Rankings after each profile. Right now, the Series features 9 QBs, 10 RBs, 11 WRs, and 2 TEs, and so my rankings for QB1-9, RB1-10, and WR1-11 in particular will fill out over the next four weeks.

Thanks as always,

C.J.

Today’s podcast was recorded early on July 3rd, & Today’s Substack post covers my Top 30 WRs + another 30+ WRs in late round rankings, as well as my Top 20 TEs.

Next week (or later this week) will feature a Start-Up Mock Draft, and that will conclude the Start-Up Series for Summer.

After that, if you missed the announcement on the 2028 Post, the Fantasy for Real podcast & this Substack will be diving into my Summer Scouting Series. The first episode of the Summer Scouting Series — due out in less than two weeks — will feature Arch Manning, QB, Texas ; Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (FL) via Duke ; Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia ; Isaac Brown, RB, Louisville ; Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami (FL) ; Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana ; T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson ; & Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU.

EDIT: Minor edits made particularly to the Jordyn Tyson section

Start-Up Rankings: WR

At the WR position, what makes the position unique is not necessarily how we approach the position generally — as in weighing one factor or another more heavily or looking for something more specifically — but the fact that WR is the only position where you’re going to find a wide range of players who exist between being a “have” and a “have-not.” Every other position — QB/TE in particular, but RB as well — has a much more clear delineation between the “haves” and the “have-nots.”

To be clear, there is a substantial gap say between Ja’Marr Chase and a number of other WRs, but at most other positions, the population of relatively unproven players with reasonable potential to be great is fairly low. At WR, we have this “tier” in abundance — beyond just the rookies like Tate, Tyson, Lemon, Concepcion, etc., the WR position has players like Burden & Odunze, Egbuka, MHJ, BTJ, Ladd McConkey, and a number of other players where in three years, being outside the Top 36 or inside the Top 12 wouldn’t really surprise me all that much.

While Tiers are important at every position, this gives us a very important specific Tier Takeaway at the WR position: there may be some big gaps in ranking between WR13 & WR28, but within that Tier, my biggest goal is getting more bites at the apple. Because while all of these players starting at WR13 have that potential, it is hard for players to take that next step like JSN did in 2025.

Additionally, while I do only “rank” 30 WRs from 1-30, instead of trying to put together fringe players with clear short-term utility versus long-term upside in a single list, the WRs ranked 31+ will be handled in three separate lists. While this may be a bit more confusing on the surface, hopefully the practical needs of your own team — whether you’re a contender needing a WR or a rebuilder/productive struggle needing more rookies — will help at least eliminate one of the lists for your own purposes later in the Draft. The third list — between older players & younger players — is the potential breakout or recent breakout candidates. This includes players like Alec Pierce, Parker Washington, Michael Wilson, & other players who have been around the league for a few years like Quentin Johnston. This decision may seem more complicated on paper, but I do believe it can be more practical use in an actual Start-Up Draft.

WR Rankings 1-30

1. Ja’Marr Chase

2. Puka Nacua

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

4. CeeDee Lamb

5. Justin Jefferson

6. Amon-Ra St. Brown

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7. Malik Nabers

8. Drake London

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9. Nico Collins

10. Chris Olave

11. Tetairoa McMillan

12. Garrett Wilson

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13. Carnell Tate

14. Jordyn Tyson

15. George Pickens

16. Zay Flowers

17. Jameson Williams

18. Luther Burden III

19. Ladd McConkey

20. Emeka Egbuka

21. Makai Lemon

22. DeVonta Smith

23. Tee Higgins

24. A.J. Brown

25. Rashee Rice

26. Rome Odunze

27. Brian Thomas Jr.

28. Marvin Harrison Jr.

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29. K.C. Concepcion

30. Jaylen Waddle

—

Not-Top-30 Lists (Ranking on Specific List compared to Consensus)

Breakout Fringe Players (13)

1. Alec Pierce (E)

2. Parker Washington (+2)

3. Michael Wilson (+3)

4. Josh Downs (+1)

5. Christian Watson (-2)

6. Jordan Addison (-4)

7. Jayden Reed (+2)

8. Wan’Dale Robinson (E)

9. Ricky Pearsall (+1)

10. Quentin Johnston (-3)

11. Jalen Coker (+2)

12. Xavier Worthy (-1)

13. Romeo Doubs (E)

Veteran Rankings (10)

1. Terry McLaurin (+1)

2. Mike Evans (+4)

3. DJ Moore (-2)

4. Davante Adams (+1)

5. Chris Godwin (+4)

6. DK Metcalf (-3)

7. Courtland Sutton (E)

8. Khalil Shakir (+2)

9. Michael Pittman (-5)

10. Ja’Kobi Meyers (-2)

‘Prospect’ Rankings (16)

1. Travis Hunter (+4)

2. Denzel Boston (+2)

3. Omar Cooper Jr. (-2)

4. Antonio Williams (+4)

5. Matthew Golden (-3)

6. Zachariah Branch (+7)

7. Ted Hurst (+7)

8. De’Zhaun Stribling (+4)

9. Germie Bernard (E)

10. Chris Bell (-3)

11. Jalen McMillan (-5)

12. Jayden Higgins (-9)

13. Ja’Kobi Lane (+3)

14. Chris Brazzell II (+1)

15. Elijah Sarratt (-5)

16. Malachi Fields (-5)

—

Off-Consensus: Top 30

Two important notes before getting into individual players, while the order is different, my Top 8 is the same as the Top 8 WRs on KTC. My Top 30 is also the same as the Top 30 WRs on KTC. This helps to solidify these as two of the biggest tier breaks at the WR position.

Nico Collins & Chris Olave

My: WR9 & WR10

Consensus: WR14 & WR16

Injury risk may be an underrated factor in these first two (or even three) players, but Collins & Olave have that blend of production, efficiency, performance, and a projected Offense or role within the Offense that gives confidence for production this upcoming season. At 27 & 26 YO, each player has at least three full seasons before turning 30 YO.

Jordyn Tyson

My: WR14

Consensus: WR19

Once again, concepts of value play a significant role in my inner-Tier rankings. If you play in a league where trading is difficult or somehow impossible, this may not matter as much and production alone may need to be the biggest focus. But for anyone else, the potential to retain value on your roster is very important, because even a player who is not ultimately successful can help with acquiring a player who might actually benefit your team for the long run. Specifically for Jordyn Tyson (and Carnell Tate as well), there is a much lower bar needed to maintain or even increase in value. If some of the third year players have a season around 17 Gs & 1,013 Yards, their value will very likely stay the same or decrease. With a season like that, as showcased by Tetarioa McMillan, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, or even Makai Lemon could quickly become Top 10 WRs in Dynasty.

The gap between Tate, Tyson, & Lemon is probably more pronounced than it should be on paper with the differences between these prospects, but for as much as all this is true about Lemon as well, Tate & Tyson also do have very favorable short-term projections on my own rankings. The combination of that added short-term appeal helps to separate Tate & Tyson, as well as the fact that recent history with Top 10 picks at the WR position has been very promising. Tetairoa McMillan, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, & DeVonta Smith are the most recent names (since ~2020-2017) to be selected with Top 10 picks, and while MHJ & Odunze remain controversial assets, at this point they are the worst Top 10 picks in this group. Considering they are still highly valued (being in this Tier regardless if they’re ranked highly & ranked even more highly by the consensus), MHJ & Odunze’s current circumstance at least as a theoretical worst-case-scenario gives some advantage to Tate & Tyson as well.

Zay Flowers & Jameson Williams

My: WR16 & WR17

Consensus: WR25 & WR29

There is a strong case here that — compared to the players lower down the list with opportunities to be WR1s — Flowers & Jameson are far more likely to max out as long-term WR2s. There is some logic to that argument, but it also seems a bit fundamentally flawed when discussing a 26 YO WR who has had three straight years of improvement in Receiving YPG & a 25 YO WR who finished 2025 on an absolute tear.

Jameson Williams’ price in particular on market aggregates seems a bit absurd, and in combination with what will be discussed with Egbuka, it does seem a bit like the market aggregates are far too focused on the first several games of last season. Jameson did get off to a slow start, but it certainly wasn’t a bad 24 YO Season for Williams.

I do understand the skepticism for Flowers, but we’re talking about a player who has gone from 53.6 to 62.3 to 71.2 YPG the last three seasons and will turn 26 YO shortly before the Kickoff to the 2026 Season.

Emeka Egbuka

My: WR20

Consensus: WR10

Perhaps I am too low on Egbuka, but WR10 just doesn’t feel reasonable based on how he played for most of last year. Yes, there are excuses, and those excuses are viable, but if we’re to focus entirely on the excuses, that still leaves an extremely small sample that we’re evaluating the non-excuse play from Egbuka. WR10 feels like giving Egbuka almost all the credit for his first five game hot stretch while not giving him any of the negatives for the 12 Gs that followed.

And make no mistake, the 12 Gs that followed were bad. Not just “not good enough for Fantasy,” but Egbuka’s 17 G pace based on the last 12 Gs of last year was under 700 Yards. I do get there’s a bit of a distinction between a “Full Season” and a “Partial Season,” but at 12 Gs, I’m just a bit surprised that Egbuka gets the full benefit of the doubt while someone like Brian Thomas Jr., who was good for an entire season, gets none at all.

Even in my own rankings, I currently have Egbuka a bit higher, but there’s no chance I get Egbuka at his current ADP. He is the least likely player in this tier to end up on any of my own teams this off-season.

Rome Odunze & Marvin Harrison Jr.

My: WR26 & WR28

Consensus: WR20 & WR22

First of all — and this really isn’t a cop out it is the entire point of the opening section today — if priced at my own ranking, Odunze & MHJ are two of my favorite values on my own board. That may seem confusing, but it actually makes a lot of sense when you consider what having a Tier this large means. So of course, if Odunze & MHJ are still Tiered all the way up to WR13, significantly above their consensus, then it isn’t exactly cut & dry.

But overall, I’m just having a hard time pulling the trigger on these two in 2026. While each player has elite upside and could be this year’s JSN in theory, they they suffer from that same logic brought up in the beginning with Tate & Tyson: if Odunze & MHJ fail to take the step forward this year, the goose is going to be at least half cooked. At 900-1,000 yards in a healthy season, maybe they maintain around the fringe WR2 range, but most likely the conversations about them being potential Top-Tier players start to die down significantly.

Odunze & MHJ (as well as BTJ, who is the same in almost everything here just ranked far more closely to the consensus) need a strong season this year as time is running out.

Ladd McConkey could fall under this umbrella as well, but particularly as long as Keenan Allen stays away from the Chargers, McConkey’s situation showcases the most potential for improvement with Mike McDaniel becoming the new OC. Additionally, breakout players in Arizona, Chicago, & Jacksonville seem far more likely to threaten for WR1 targets compared to the Chargers, who still likely have Quentin Johnston — who while better last year still disappeared for a high portion of the season — as their biggest threat to McConkey’s targets.

Lower Tiers

Balancing young & old can be a complicated dynamic in Start-Up leagues, and so choosing between the Veterans or the Rookies in particular likely comes down to what you’re looking for: a potential starter to help win a Championship, or an investment that you hope to cash in through production or trade down the line.

The tricky tier is likely that potential breakout Tier, and as I am someone who likes to invest in what I have seen proven on a Football Field, many of those potential breakouts would likely score the highest if ranking these players collectively. The first five players here in Pierce, Washington, Wilson, Downs, & Watson in particular have strong arguments to be 5 of the top 6-8 WRs taken outside that Top 30.

Start-Up Rankings: TE

In contrast to WR, TE showcases the greatest divide between the “Haves” and the “Have Nots.” Specifically, not only are there fewer Top Tier players, but the players who we truly believe capable of taking that next step or being at all likely to do so is fairly limited as well.

TE Rankings 1-20

1. Brock Bowers

2. Trey McBride

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3. Colston Loveland

—

4. Tucker Kraft

5. Tyler Warren

—

6. Harold Fannin Jr.

7. Sam LaPorta

—

8. Kyle Pitts

9. Kenyon Sadiq

10. George Kittle

—

11. Eli Stowers

12. Oronde Gadsden II

13. Dalton Kincaid

—

14. Travis Kelce

15. Isaiah Likely

16. T.J. Hockenson

17. Jake Ferguson

18. Brenton Strange

19. Mark Andrews

20. Max Klare

—

Off-Consensus

There are fewer differences at the TE position, so the Podcast will go into further detail, but for right now, I’m going to cover the Off-Consensus players briefly & together in this section.

It is only one spot below the consensus for Warren, but I do think the differences between Warren & Loveland go deeper “Good Early” versus “Good Late.” Specifically, while manufactured touches can be a benefit if they are repeatable over several years, Warren succeeded far more on dump offs and had 14+% of his Targets come behind the line of scrimmage compared to under 1% for Colston Loveland. This contrast is seen also in their Targets 10+ Yards downfield, where Loveland has an ~11% Advantage. If Warren was a monster with the ball in his hands, it would be a bit easier to even out the projection, but Warren surprising did not score well in Missed Tackles Forced in 2025, so between the manufactured touches and the fall off in performance, I’m a bit more skeptical about Warren and not just when he produced, but HOW he produced in 2025.

In general, whether TEs 4-7 are one Tier or two separate Tiers is very difficult at this point. We’ll see where they go in the Start-Up Mock in a few days.

Travis Kelce is my most over consensus TE, and while he is likely an expiring asset at the end of this year even, I ask myself a simple question: out of TEs ranked 14-20, which TE do I expect to have the highest single season Target total in any season the rest of their careers. For me, the answer is Travis Kelce. Because while Kelce did have a decade low 108 Targets last year, 90-100 Targets in a single season is more Targets than I would project Likely, Hock, Ferguson, Strange, Andrews, or Klare to get in any Season of their entire NFL Careers. That is more a statement to how rare 90-100 Targets are at TE than the talents of those players, though obviously that does play a factor. Of course, any of them could do it, but that is why I said I would not project it.

Isaiah Likely is (once again) well liked by the consensus, but consistency is the bread & butter of pass catching positions, and Likely has demonstrated none of it over a long career. Plus, for as much as he does have a lack of competing targets, that was the one advantage he has had throughout the course of his career previously. While Andrews was on the team, the overall there has been a clear need for pass catchers in Baltimore, and Andrews had fewer than 3 Receptions / Game last year. With the same HC in particular, I find it hard to be too optimistic about Likely. While he is near the top of his own Tier, most of the consensus would seem to place him at least closer to the Tier where I have Stowers, Gadsden, & Kincaid, but I would easily prefer that trio over Likely.

As mentioned above, I will be back next week with my Start-Up Mock Draft, where I’ll control all 12 Teams and talk Draft Strategy as I apply my Start-Up Tiers.

Afterward, the Summer Scouting series will begin. This will be a four part series giving brief (hopefully 5-8 minute) scouting reports on 32 of (potentially) the most important prospects to know for the upcoming 2027 NFL Draft. Part 1 of the Summer Scouting Series will feature Arch Manning, QB, Texas ; Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (FL) via Duke ; Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia ; Isaac Brown, RB, Louisville ; Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami (FL) ; Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana ; T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson ; & Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU.

Questions & Comments welcome,

Thanks as always,

C.J.

Announcing the Summer Scouting Series

This week will feature my WR/TE Start-Up Rankings with next week going over a Start-Up Mock Draft, which means the podcast is getting closer to wrapping up my Redraft & Start-Up Series for this Summer. That leaves one last Devy/Future Draft Series left on the Agenda.

I’ve debated going by Position or going by Conference, but ultimately instead I’ve landed on just spreading out profiles of the ~32 most prominent Prospects for this upcoming 2027 Season across four shows. The four shows will feature at a minimum 2 QBs, 2 RBs, & 2 WRs, and each profile will feature basic background information like listed height + weight & age alongside key Pros & Cons that define some of their biggest strengths and weaknesses. While this is subjective, my goal was to “evenly balance” the shows where each show would have a significant amount of intriguing prospects.

There is still time to change — my first announcement featured 29 players and I have already filled my 3 open slots to get to 32 — but at this point I’m fairly set on this group being the 32 Players discussed on the podcast.

Summer Scouting Preview

Show 1: Arch Manning, Darian Mensah, Nate Frazier, Isaac Brown, Mark Fletcher Jr., Nick Marsh, T.J. Moore, Trey’Dez Green

Show 2: Dante Moore, C.J. Carr, Ahmad Hardy, Antwan Raymond, L.J. Martin, Bryant Wesco, Ryan Coleman-Williams, Ryan Wingo

Show 3: Julian Sayin, Drew Mestemaker, Jayden Maiava, Kewan Lacy, Justice Haynes, Jeremiah Smith, Omarion Miller, Mario Craver

Show 4: LaNorris Sellers, Trinidad Chambliss, Jadan Baugh, Wayshawn Parker, Cam Coleman, Charlie Becker, K.J. Duff, Jamari Johnson

I have begun preparing for these shows, and my own sheet with Heights & Weights, Ages, remaining Eligibility, and Pros & Cons for each player is available to the PAID Subscribers on this Substack. This list includes 29 of 32 profiles thus far, and the last three will be coming along shortly. All of this information will eventually be on the podcast, and at least some will likely make the write-ups in the Substack, but if you want an early peak into the class with the full document of 29-32 early Scouting Profiles, that is available on the PAID tier of my Substack.

2028 Mock Draft

1.01 Malachi Toney, WR, Miami (FL)

1.02 Dakorien Moore, WR, Oregon

1.03 Bo Jackson, RB, Ohio State

1.04 Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele, QB, California

1.05 Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan

1.06 Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama

1.07 Andrew Marsh, WR, Michigan

1.08 Jordan Davison, RB, Oregon

1.09 Dallas Wilson, WR, Florida

1.10 Caleb Hawkins, RB, Oklahoma State via North Texas

1.11 Gideon Davidson, RB, Clemson

1.12 Nate Sheppard, RB, Duke

Early Draft Notes

Always keep in mind that — while certain players will fail to live up to expectations and have a lot of attention — in general classes do improve as we get closer to the Draft in terms of proven, productive, highly regarded players. There are players in the draft today — like Keelon Russell & Gideon Davidson — who have rarely played College Football at this point. And particularly in this case, the players who choose to return from 2027 will bolster the 2028 Class as well.

I’m slightly lower than the early Fantasy consensus on Bo Jackson. I see someone who very well could be in that same tier as Baugh & Lacy when it is all said and done, but many analysts in the Devy community seem to have him as closer to someone in potentially even a Tier higher.

By the mock draft philosophy that puts Manning over Moore, Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele should be the QB3 and the 1.06, as he is the least mobile QB of the trio. That said, this is very early in the process, and JKS has simply proven far more than Underwood or Russell. Whether those two pass JKS or not, JKS is likely to fall a spot or two even if he continues to develop and live up to expectations because his mobility likely makes him a QB selected closer to the 1.04-1.05 even if he goes 1.01 in the Overall Draft.

The Top 9 Players are the 9 Players that would be in any Mock Draft I do right now. After that, the bottom three are definitely players that would change frequently in Mock Draft exercises. Here, I leaned on the RBs, but ultimately there’s a very good case that the entire tier of WRs featuring names like Tanhook Hines, Vernell Brown III, Lotzeir Brooks, and a number of other players could fill out the last few slots in this Mock Draft. The biggest issue with that trio is that group is one I’m having a difficult time picking my favorites from. Nate Sheppard in particular is a player who could continue to ascend, but the 1.12 feels like it at least could be closer to a Draft Ceiling than a Draft Floor or expectation.

With two weeks remaining for the Start-Up Ranking Series, we are rapidly approaching the next Devy Series, and for a while I have been debating how to handle that series — whether to do Positional Rankings, Conference Previews, or something else entirely.

Ultimately, I have decided to breakdown a handful of prospects at a time in a 4-Part "Summer Scouting” Series.

These profiles will not be too long — I am planning roughly 7-8 Prospects per Episode — and will try to give a basic background on the most prominent players in this class, their pros, their cons, & ultimately where I have them ranked for the 2027 NFL Draft heading into the 2026 NFL Season.

Instead of going position-by-position, the episodes will mix & match, with each episode featuring at minimum 2 QBs, 2 RBs, & 2 WRs. While this is purely subjective, I have also tried to spread out the level of talent or particularly intrigue between these four episodes; I do not cover Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Jeremiah Smith, & Cam Coleman in the same episode, but rather than foursome is spread across the different episodes.

While this is subject to change and with a potential to have ~3 more open spots if someone is added, the early schedule for the Summer Scouting Series looks like this:

Show 1: Arch Manning, Darian Mensah, Nate Frazier, Isaac Brown, Mark Fletcher Jr., Nick Marsh, T.J. Moore, Trey’Dez Green

Show 2: Dante Moore, C.J. Carr, Ahmad Hardy, Antwan Raymond, Bryant Wesco, Ryan Coleman-Williams, Ryan Wingo

Show 3: Julian Sayin, Drew Mestemaker, Jayden Maiava, Kewan Lacy, Wayshawn Parker, Jeremiah Smith, Omarion Miller

Show 4: LaNorris Sellers, Trinidad Chambliss, Jadan Baugh, Justice Haynes, Cam Coleman, Charlie Becker, Jamari Johnson

The ANNOUNCEMENT for the fours shows on the Podcast will take place early this week, as I plan to delay the WR/TE Start-Up Rankings by a Day or two & post a Way-Too-Early 2028 Rookie Mock Draft which will also serve as my announcement for the Summer Scouting Series.

These Podcasts will begin in 3-4 Weeks, but the PAID Substack Tier today will get my Pros/Cons & Rankings for these 29 Players. While some write-up will likely accompany these Podcasts, the full Pros/Cons list may remain a PAID article. The 2028 Rookie Mock Draft, due out in a day or two, can be found below as well.

Additionally, today’s post will feature my (unedited) NOTES from the 2026 Cover 3 Summer School Series, which will likely air on the Podcast either shortly before or shortly after the 4-Part Summer Scouting Series depending on when the Cover 3 Summer School Series wraps up.

Once again, the Start-Up Rankings Series will be slightly delayed this week (likely Friday or Saturday release instead of Thursday) with a new 2028 Mock Draft episode due out first to announce the new series.

Read more

Part 3 will likely come next week and cover both WRs & TEs.

Today’s podcast/Substack also features an early preview look at the College Football Season, breaking down which teams have the most Devy Watchlist talent for the upcoming 2026 Season.

And of course, the podcast briefly touches on the latest updates in the Sorsby Saga.

START-UP SUPERFLEX RB RANKINGS (DYNASTY)

It may not be what we want to hear, but AGE is the most important at the RB position

For a while I tried to find a different way to phrase this, but ultimately there’s no point in trying to beat around the bush: as an individual variable, Age is the most important at this position, particularly if you’re weighing the idea of Dynasty Value.

While these things are subject to change in the future, RB is currently seen as the position that peaks the earliest and falls off the quickest. QBs often play into the mid-30s, TEs (with some exceptions, Mark Andrews) regularly play at a high level into the 30s as well. WR is the position most alike RB, but even at WR, players are generally considered at a fine age throughout their 20s. The late-20s can even be seen as the end of the peak.

At RB, peaks occur earlier and fall-offs happen far more quickly.

If we were ONLY concerned about long-term production, perhaps this would be a bit more of a difficult argument because it will be hard for all the RBs ranked above Cook & Taylor to be better or more consistent than Cook & Taylor, and for all we know, someone like Jonathan Taylor could be the next Derrick Henry and play another six years. But from looking at this position from a perspective of market values, Cook & Taylor are going to start losing value very soon & very quickly. The patience with a poor season — even if it’s injury impacted — will be lesser, and in Start-Up Drafts, Cook & Taylor will likely be players selected a few rounds later even if they keep up the pace of their current careers. While production is ultimately the most important to winning championships, having a high degree of value on the roster creates the most avenues for adjusting your team as well as buying & selling, so as long as you are in a semi-active league, concepts of Value do need to come into Start-Up Rankings.

On top of that, there are certainly busts at this position, but the rate at which highly touted, universally loved, & highly drafted RBs truly fail is not all that high. In fact, I would never say that there’s no risk in Jeremiyah Love transitioning to the NFL level, but historically and statistically, there is really no reason to count that risk as any more substantial than the risk that successful, proven players will fail to produce in the near future — because successful, proven players have fall-offs all the time for any number of environmental factors. It is not the perfect evidence to make this point — in part because there’s so much debate on if it SHOULD have happened for this reason — but the simple fact that Jeremiyah Love now possesses considerably more guaranteed money than elite RBs helps to highlight a similar concept that at this position, values are a bit skewed towards youth with confidence that young, highly talented players can contribute immediately.

While age is the primary focus on this section, other related areas like injury concerns & contracts will overlap as well. Specifically for injury concerns, while there is some argument to look at injury history as a way to consider some players more likely to be injured than others, that is importantly NOT what I am doing here. But injuries & age have an overlapping principle as well, where all else being equal, a younger player is less likely to be impacted by an injury than an older player. This is not predicting specific injuries so much as acknowledging that anyone can get injured and what would relatively happen to different player’s values if they did get injured. Similarly, because of the short timeline of RB Careers, team investments (contracts) that push a player into a 2-3 year starting window are very valuable as well, even if the compensation is far lower than at other positions.

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Start-Up Rankings & Tiers Part 2: RB

1. Bijan Robinson

2. Jahmyr Gibbs

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3. Jeremiyah Love

4. Ashton Jeanty

5. Omarion Hampton

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6. De’Von Achane

7. James Cook

8. Jonathan Taylor

9. Kenneth Walker III

10. Breece Hall

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11. TreVeyon Henderson

12. Quinshon Judkins

13. Christian McCaffrey

14. Chase Brown

15. Saquon Barkley

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16. Travis Etienne Jr.

17. Javonte Williams

18. Kyren Williams

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19. Jadarian Price

20. Cam Skattebo

21. Josh Jacobs

22. Bucky Irving

23. Derrick Henry

24. D’Andre Swift

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25. R.J. Harvey

26. Jaylen Warren

27. Chuba Hubbard

28. Bhayshul Tuten

29. Jonah Coleman

30. Zach Charbonnet

31. Tony Pollard

32. David Montgomery

33. Kyle Monangai

34. Nicholas Singleton

35. Jonathon Brooks

36. Blake Corum

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Honorable Mentions: Demond Claiborne, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Rachaad White

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Off-Consensus Comments

RBs 3-12

While not necessarily off-consensus, I wanted to talk about RBs 3-10 first.

Redraft Rankings come first to more naturally make some of these comparisons. While there is a risk in taking Jeremiyah Love, Ashton Jeanty, or Omarion Hampton over the players I have a half-tier below, Love, Jeanty, & Hampton are in the same redraft Tier in my rankings as Achane, Walker, & Hall. So while Achane, Walker, & Hall do have an edge in confidence and proof, being in the same tier gives Love, Jeanty, & Hampton an age advantage even over players like Achane (turning 25 this season) and Hall (25) because even 25 at RB is way closer to a value dip than it would be at any other position. James Cook & Jonathan Taylor are the only RBs in a substantially higher Tier for Redraft — but Cook is turning 27 this year and Taylor will be 27 when the season begins. At that point, we’re talking about a six year difference between Love & Taylor with Taylor approaching value cliffs.

Perhaps in a Start-Up, if my team drafts Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, or potentially Josh Allen, someone like Cook or Taylor springboards all the way to RB3 as a potential win-now advantage, but in general and in the context of a blank slate in a Start-Up Draft, the young trio of Love, Jeanty, & Hampton take the first three spots after Bijan & Gibbs.

TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins share many of the same youth advantages, but once again my current redraft projections clearly spell out the difference in these groups — Love, Jeanty, & Hampton are in a Tier that consists of my Overall Players 20-28 for Redraft Leagues. Henderson and Judkins are several tiers below including below the Kyren/Javonte/ETN/Jacobs Tier as well as my preferred Redraft Buys for upside (if healthy), Bucky Irving & Cam Skattebo. To put it most simply, Love, Jeanty, & Hampton may be risky RB1s, but I do profile them as borderline RB1s. Henderson and Judkins are clear RB2 projections, and it is not certain that changes enough by next year. This also transitions into the next section on Quinshon Judkins.

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Off-Consensus: Quinshon Judkins

My RB12

Consensus RB9

Given his production for most of last season, RB12 feels respectable, but the consensus is a bit higher. This may not be the sole reason, but it is important to recognize that we pay the most attention to Fantasy Football at the beginning of the Season, and during the beginning of the Season, Judkins was not just good but surprisingly good given lowered expectations due to his off-season situation and how it interfered with his camp process. In the last 10 Games of the 2025 NFL Season, Judkins produced only 3.0 YPC with 158 Carries for only 480 Yards.

And while there are excuses here — I just don’t see how the excuses get Judkins into the Top 10. If the argument truly is “okay well Cleveland is just that bad” — how close are we to seeing a turn around? We can blame Judkins for the lack of performance OR Cleveland for the lack of performance — it really doesn’t matter. Either way, the amount of change we need heading into next year is just far too great, so I’d rather invest in KW3 or Breece Hall — unless my team was a rebuilder.

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Off-Consensus: Travis Etienne Jr. & Javonte Williams

My RB16 & 17

Consensus RB21 & 20

The investments made by the Saints & Cowboys do not carry the largest dollar figures, but they are highly significant investments at the RB position which very likely mean Etienne & Javonte are the starting RBs for these teams for the next 2-3 Years. That may not sound like a long time, but all the age & longevity arguments being made throughout this section also create larger turnover at this position, and in Etienne & Javonte, we may have a couple of players who can avoid that turnaround in the near-future, sustaining reasonable value not just for more aggressive contenders but those in more balanced 3-Year competing windows as well. Playing for potentially Fantasy-friendly Offenses certainly helps to bump these two up a few spots as well.

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Off-Consensus: Bhayshul Tuten

My RB28

Consensus RB22

Tuten is a player who naturally forms two clearly divergent camps: (1) his lack of opportunity says that he is an unknown with mysterious potential & upside or (2) the lack of opportunity in 2025 — particularly after trading away Tank Bigsby — is a concern for how we should perceive Tuten. Clearly, I fall a bit more in the latter camp. While Tuten has some explosive potential as displayed in small spurts last year, at the NFL Combine, and throughout his Virginia Tech career, as a lot of this section lays out in different contexts, RB is a position more than others where you expect players who will make an impact to make a significant impact right away. Tuten failing to make any impact while have a path to at least semi-significant touches makes me a bit more skeptical on his long-term projections.

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Off-Consensus: Kyle Monangai & Blake Corum

My RB33 & 36

Consensus RB26 & 28

The irony here is that I do see Monangai & Corum being significant players for this upcoming season, but while Monangai in particular had some very strong stretches last year, in general both of these players fall under the umbrella of having a starter in front of them and no real significant investment that suggests they become the long-term starter even IF the current starter ever leaves. Monangai could be the bet on the future starter of the Chicago Bears as maybe they do simply let Swift walk after this year without any other significant investment, but those scenarios just don’t seem to happen all that often, so my general priority in that Tier focuses on players who have clearer paths to being a #1 on their team without injury. Monangai & Corum’s paths are only clear with injury.

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Off-Consensus: Jaylen Warren

My RB26

Consensus RB33

Perhaps a bit rich here as Warren does need to have a fair conversation about AGE aside from his role on the Steelers, but Warren just seems to be a player who has carved out a clear role in the NFL, and without Kenneth Gainwell, the pass catching this year should be significant enough that Warren could easily finish as an RB2.

Devy Team Tiers: A Preview of Previews

As someone who has done game previews for College Football for several years, Preview material never does gets the same attention or feedback as Review material for the same games — and I think I understand at least one of the major reasons why: preview material is going to be far more repetitive by its nature. Your expectations for a player are going to change over the course of a season, but they’re not going to change quite so much game-to-game that preview content often becomes naturally repetitive.

Don’t get me wrong — I still plan on doing my Weekly Preview Series this year, but a Team Rating like this section provides is truly all you need: find out where the talent concentration is the highest, and look out for when teams in the 3+ Star Rating play each other.

This Team Rating list is the precursor to all the Game Preview content that will be done on the Show this year. And while it will change during the year, it will not change nearly as much as something like overall Team Rankings or the “Top 25,” which can be a bit more misleading for where to put our focus.

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The Team Rating List is a Devy listing, so there are teams where the players elevating a team will not be eligible for the 2027 NFL Draft. However, in general, there is a slight bias towards 2027 Players in how I create the Tiers. Additionally, since this is about WATCHING games, Devy Players unlikely to see the field in 2026 are not weighed much at all in these Watchlist Tiers; this list is not merely about talent but visible talent.

More significantly, because this is a WATCHLIST, I do value positions differently as well. Specifically, a QB is valued most highly on the Watchlist because when highlighting games to watch, an intriguing QB is simply going to be consistently visible throughout the game. Particularly as this is a Watchlist for simply watching games on Television/Streaming, highlighting a single WR means only a small percentage of plays will feature the highlighted player. Highlight a QB is obviously quite a bit different.

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Before getting into the Team Ratings, let’s talk about roughly what each Star Rating means:

5-Star: 2 Top Prospects + Significant Added Depth

4-Star: 2 Top Prospects or 1 Top Prospect + Significant Added Depth

3-Star: 1 Top Prospect

2-Star: Identifiable Prospects

1-Star: Lacking Identifiable Prospects (at QB, RB, WR, & TE)

Keep in mind, even among Power Conference teams which this segment focuses on, the vast majority of teams will be 1 & 2-Star Teams.

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5-Star (3)

Ohio State, Oregon, Texas

4-Star (6)

Alabama*, Clemson, Florida, Indiana, Miami, Michigan

3-Star (13)

California, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Rutgers, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, USC, Vanderbilt**

2-Star (25)

Arizona State, Auburn, Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland Minnesota, Mississippi State, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, UCLA, Utah, & Washington

1-Star (21)

Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, Cincinnati, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, TCU, UCF, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Wisconsin

*: Assuming Keelon Russell is the Starter

**: Assuming and perhaps overweighing Jared Curtis as the starter, but with solid performance, a potential top QB for 2029 playing in the SEC does deserve 3-Star attention.

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For this segment I won’t dive into the reasoning too much as that would just be another “let’s talk about every single prospect” series, but the utility of this list is that pairing up teams particularly 4+ Stars or even 3+ Stars can quickly highlight the biggest match-ups of the CFB Season to watch.

Ohio State plays Texas in Week 2 & Oregon in Week 10 — our two 10-Star Match-Ups of the Season

There are also the 4+ Star Games on each side: Miami @ Clemson in Week 5, Florida @ Texas & Ohio State @ Indiana in Week 7, Indiana @ Michigan in Week 8, Michigan @ Oregon in Week 11, and — of course — Michigan @ Ohio State in Week 13.

These are the games that will likely compete for preview Game of the Year, with basically every match-up between 3-Star teams being a game to highlight during that Weekly segment.

Once again, this Star Rating list will change throughout the CFB Season, but it will not be nearly as volatile as something like overall team performance or rankings in something like the Top 25.

Next episode may not feature anything Devy related as I may do all my pass catching Rankings (WR & TE) on the show next week.

I talk about the updates for the Brendan Sorsby saga on the show, but at this point, I’m not sure it is worth typing many more words out about. As of today, Sorsby is unlikely to play Football in 2026 at any level, so the conversation around Sorsby can pick back up around December 2026 / January 2027.

Thanks as always,

Questions & Comments welcome,

C.J.

Re-draft rankings are now behind us and it’s time to move into my Start-Up Rankings.

I also cover Brendan Sorsby (the prospect, not the off-field) a bit in this post below.

A bit behind on this one, so the write-up is coming last minute with less editing time. Appreciate everyone for sticking with me and once again hope you are all enjoying the Summer.

Start-Up Rankings INTRO

Start-Up Rankings are a completely different beast from Redraft Rankings or Rookie Rankings. Compared to Start-Ups, Redraft Rankings are incredibly straight forward: there’s no competitive windows, managing age dynamics, or anything like it — if you think a player will score more points / points per game, they should rank higher. Rookie Rankings come with some of the same theoretical dynamics as Start-Up Rankings, but with every single player being in the same range of “unproven” and “relatively young,” Rookie Rankings again make it easier to make things simple — Rookie A is more likely to hit than Rookie B and has more or as much upside, so therefore Rookie A is ranked higher.

But in a Start-Up Ranking, two players in the same Tier can have monstrously different utilities. The easiest comparison point within these rankings today is Dak Prescott & Fernando Mendoza. The gap in age between these two players is a decade. In order for Fernando Mendoza to have more general “long-term value” (depending on how we define it), he probably just needs to earn a second contract.

However, it is also fair to acknowledge how difficult it is for a player like Mendoza (or any QB) to develop to the extent of Dak Prescott. Betting on Mendoza now could easily pay off for the decade that represents their gap in age, but the chances that Mendoza never produces a single season to the level of Dak Prescott is very realistic. On top of all that, even if Mendoza just for sake of argument is someone who will eventually pan out and develop into an NFL Starting QB, it still does not necessarily become a straightforward equation. At that point, Mendoza probably should be ranked more highly within the same tier, but if Mendoza takes 2-3 Years to fully develop statistically, Dak Prescott has a substantial and relevant advantage to Fantasy teams even in this scenario where Mendoza clearly has more value.

This is why — even though this is the case for Redraft as well — TIERS are so much more important than RANKINGS. The Rankings obviously portray specific opinions about players within their Tiers, but whether you’re the first player in a tier or the last player in a tier, the value of potential outcomes for players in a tier I see as similar.

One last note that I failed to cover on the Podcast, while this does not often matter in position-specific Rankings compared to Overall Rankings, these are SUPERFLEX rankings, and there is an important difference here at this position: a high upside but relatively higher risk player like Jaxson Dart would score far better relatively in a 1QB league. In a 1QB league, I would consider Dart at the top of his Tier, as players like Herbert & Mahomes even can be less substantial in that format, & the access to viable starting QBs if Dart fails is far greater.

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Dynasty Start-Up Superflex QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen

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2. Drake Maye

3. Jayden Daniels

4. Caleb Williams

5. Lamar Jackson

6. Joe Burrow

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7. Jalen Hurts

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8. Justin Herbert

9. Patrick Mahomes

10. Trevor Lawrence

11. Bo Nix

12. Brock Purdy

13. Jaxson Dart

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14. Dak Prescott

15. Jared Goff

16. Tyler Shough

17. Fernando Mendoza

18. Jordan Love

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19. C.J. Stroud

20. Cam Ward

21. Kyler Murray

22. Baker Mayfield

23. Sam Darnold

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24. Matthew Stafford

25. Bryce Young

26. Daniel Jones

27. Ty Simpson

28. Malik Willis

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HONORABLE MENTION TIERS

If you still need a starting QB

Aaron Rodgers

Plus: Jacoby Brissett & Geno Smith

The Young players without a bonafide QB above them

Drew Allar, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, Cade Klubnik, J.J. McCarthy, Micheal Penix Jr., Shedeur Sanders, Tua Tagovailoa

Can’t de-list a potential starting QB

Deshaun Watson

Saving the best for last?

Mac Jones

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Biggest Off-Consensus

Jalen Hurts QB7 v QB11

The biggest divide between QBs in the Top 6 & QBs between 8-14 is that the QBs in the Top 6 — particularly Allen, Daniels, Jackson, & Burrow — will very clearly project as Top 6 QBs year-over-year when healthy with the potential to be the QB1. While QBs in the next Tier could profile to be a QB1, Herbert, Mahomes, Nix, & Purdy are players who more commonly will project in that 9-15 range year-over-year. (Dart is obviously an exception discussed below).

While Jalen Hurts did have a big fall-off this year in Rushing TDs, he still scored 8, and I am still projecting Hurts to be a player who scores 8-10 Rushing TDs a Season. With that kind of projection, it is almost impossible to not be a top half QB. There have been 14 QB Seasons in the 2020s with 8+ Rushing TDs, and the only QB to finish below QB7 was New England Patriots Cam Newton, who had 8 Passing TDs & 10 Interceptions. He was still the QB15 in PPG. Hurts could dip below 8 TDs of course, but that’s simply not my own projection, which is closer to 8-10. The fall from 12-15 TDs (where he was previously) to 8-10 TDs is still a substantial one, but a fall that could leave Hurts as a perenial Top 6 QB.

If Hurts dips below the 8 TDs this year and it is the beginning of the end, then obviously I will regret this ranking. But as a 28-YO QB with two SB appearances, a SB Championship, & an archetype that lends itself to Top 6 Fantasy Finishes, even with some doubts about Hurts as a QB overall, he should be able to remain a starting QB, and as a starting QB, he is very Fantasy friendly.

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Jaxson Dart QB13 v QB9

Jaxson Dart does have the strongest upside case in his Tier, and at a different position where scarcity and maintaining starters is less difficult, Dart very well may be the top player in his own Tier. But with how difficult it is to roster consistently-quality Starting QBs, Dart’s Tier is just simply too high to invest in the player that as an NFL QB I currently believe in the least.

That’s not a huge disparaging remark on Jaxson Dart — the other QBs in his Tier include four players who have contracts with $50 Million per year. The only other QB in the Tier is Bo Nix, who has been rock solid as a producer for Fantasy the first two years of his career. And particularly compared to Brock Purdy & Bo Nix, I can at least more easily see the case for Jaxson Dart. But even with Mahomes’ struggles and turning 31 Years Old, I would just rather invest in the Floor of Mahomes, Herbert, & Lawrence while hoping the ceiling remains substantial for highly talented QBs as well.

In this process, Dart has moved around the Tier quite a bit. He began in the lower end, but I did start moving him up myself based on his rushing output. However, after moving from the Fantasy world to the NFL world, the sentiment around Dart just felt a lot more skeptical — and that matched the skepticism I entered the Off-Season with.

So keeping in mind the value of Tiers, Dart is still tiered alongside the QB8, but he does find himself as my QB13.

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Tyler Shough v Fernando Mendoza

One of these players is 27 Years Old & was the 40th Overall Pick. The other is 23 Years Old & was the 1st Overall Pick. There is a substantial difference there in both those variables — objective measurements — that side with Fernando Mendoza.

While it is a shorter sample, Tyler Shough’s performance down the stretch in 2025 was simply enough that in an offense that is stylistically favorable (high Pass Attempts) combined with a QB who is not afraid to use his legs, Shough quickly projects as a QB who could actually be meaningful for Fantasy even in this upcoming Season.

That is a very big variable that doesn’t seem to be weighed enough in the Shough/Mendoza/Ward conversation and is one of the reasons that I do my Redraft Projections 1st — Tyler Shough projects to clearly be a viable starter and a contributor as a QB this year with a fringe-QB1 projection. Some of the reasons are involved in circumstance & situation, but my projections have Ward as a low-end QB2. Mendoza is not projected this year as he is not considered the starter yet, but even if he were, he would not be projected any higher than Ward.

If that changes by next year, obviously that would favor Mendoza & Ward, but even if they are long-term successes — and that is a major IF for both players at this point — there’s no guarantee that two of the worst supporting casts in the NFL will improve enough by next year that Mendoza/Ward are projected in 2027 as highly as Shough is now.

As much as Shough is an older player, I see a lag — again, even IF Mendoza/Ward are successful — where it is going to take several years for Mendoza/Ward to produce as well as Shough.

The biggest problem then becomes how highly these players are being Drafted. If you’re committed to not competing, then it’s fine to value Mendoza/Ward on that long-term projection, but most of my rankings consider competition & rebuilding, and Shough has a huge advantage on my board as a player in a competitive window.

And while 27 is old relative to being a sophomore, it is not old, so while Shough has a huge advantage in short-term windows, his disadvantage in long-term windows is far more narrow and really has less to do with age & more to do with if you simply believe Mendoza/Ward are more likely to be successful in the long-term. Considering the hit rate at the QB position even among top drafted players, I don’t know that we should see Mendoza/Ward as being significantly more likely to be successful in the long-term.

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Cam Ward QB20 v QB16

While this will clearly come across as an indictment on Cam Ward the QB, I’m less concerned about Cam Ward the QB and more concerned about Cam Ward the rusher. Performance can improve, but strong archetypal and stylistic leanings are a bit different.

Don’t get me wrong — going into the 2025 NFL Draft, I didn’t depict Cam Ward as a “mobile QB.” But if I were to talk to someone considering Cam Ward prior to their 2025 Rookie Draft last year and say “Ward is really not much of a rusher, and he’s going to project for ~159 Rushing Yards per 17 Games,” I’d bet most people would’ve shot back something along the lines of “Ward might not be a great rusher, but he’s probably good for something like 300/3 because he is athletic and scrambles around.” Ward may not lack rushing to the extent of a Stafford, Goff, or Tua, but he did show a strong tendency towards using play extension as a passing weapon far more often than an opportunity to run.

This can get better, but the problem is that “improvement” isn’t quite as simple here: plenty of QBs scramble around less as they become comfortable as passers. In fact, in the four game stretch where Cam Ward improved with 8:1 TD:INT in his last 4 Games he started & finished — one of the biggest positives for people who see Cam Ward as a value — not enough is being made of the fact that he ran for 4, 2, 9, & 10 Yards in those four games.

A fantasy QB can survive on these kinds of rushing statistics, but for that QB to be consistent most of all, it typically takes an above average Offensive system and set of weapons. Even if Ward can be “as good” as Jared Goff, how far away is Ward from having his Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta? You can like Carnell Tate a lot and still think that’s a few years off.

And if that is a few years off, and my projection for all those years is going to be questionable Offensive Situation + Lack of Rushing, those projections are not viable for competing in Fantasy Leagues. They are viable for Bye Week fill-ins.

Particularly as it matters for the Tennessee Titans, I don’t see this as a massive knock on Cam Ward. Jared Goff has perennial consistency and is ranked the QB21 on KTC. Sam Darnold just won a Super Bowl and is the QB22. None of this says that Cam Ward can’t win a Super Bowl. But I have a lot of doubts on how he translates the next 1-3 years for Fantasy.

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Jared Goff QB15 v QB21

(I wasn’t planning on covering this one but the last section made me realize how far off-consensus I am on Goff once again, so I wanted to at least address this very briefly.)

Goff does not have an ideal Fantasy archetype and is over 30 YO, but he’s only 31 and possesses the kind of Offensive situation and consistency that does make him a viable QB2 for contending teams. While I do see the appeal in chasing the upside of some of the younger players, it just seems like sometimes we forget how unlikely it is that these players ever have seasons as good as Goff’s last three years — even for Fantasy. And right now, my projections for the next three years look pretty darn similar to the last three years.

This goes into the Tiers in general, but it is fair to say that if you had two QBs better than Jared Goff, the priority would likely change substantially as a QB3. Even Cam Ward in a Tier below could have an argument for being a better QB3 aside from injury relief.

Brendan Sorsby’s Pros and Cons ON the Field

The biggest advantage Brendan Sorsby has is a simple pitch: here is a QB listed at 6’ 3”, 235 lbs, has an excellent arm, & in his two years starting in College Football, has rushed for over 500 Yards and 9 Rushing TDs in each 12 G Season. That is a combination of factors that both for NFL & Fantasy become enticing immediately.

The problem is that Sorsby simply hasn’t been a consistent QB who can execute a College Offense at a high level, particularly when Cincinnati plays any team with a pulse.

Sorsby’s surface statistics like his 61.6% Completion% are already problematic for a projected NFL QB, and that’s before getting into competition adjustments at all. Cincinnati plays in the Big 12 which is certainly not the Big 10 or SEC when it comes to NFL Draft talent, and aside from that general Big 12 Schedule, Sorsby did play 3 Games against teams ranked below the Top 110 in FPI: Oklahoma State, Bowling Green, & Northwestern State. For a player that did not play in the post-season, keep in mind this makes up 25% of Sorsby’s total games.

Removing those three games and putting Sorsby against a 9 G schedule of Utah, BYU, Arizona, TCU, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas, Baylor, & UCF — not necessarily a remaining murderer’s row — Sorsby completed only 57.2% of his passes. Comp% is not my favorite statistic, but at these levels, it does outline problems in accuracy, consistency, & execution.

But Sorsby does maintain a specific Fantasy appeal. Take one of his worst passing performance of the season in Week 1 against Nebraska. Sorsby completed 13 of 25 Passes for 69 Yards, 0 TDs, & 1 INT. In that game, if you were playing College Fantasy, he scored ~22.36 Fantasy Points; he had 96 Rushing Yards and 2 Rushing TDs.

Not only does Sorsby have that significant rushing ability, but Sorsby has a few advanced metrics that highlight specific areas where he flashes even Elite upside. Sorsby’s Turnover-Worthy-Play% on PFF was a very strong 1.8% & his Pressure-to-Sack% was an ELITE 6.1%. Unlike his overall performance, these numbers were not impacted very much by focusing on that 9 Game sample; he had a 2.2% TWP% & 6.0% P2S% just focusing on the 9 Games isolated above.

While the performances in 2025 were poor enough overall that my opinion on Sorsby seems to lag behind the current NFL Media, he was one of my most exciting QBs to watch for the upcoming CFB Season prior to the scandal because these traits show so much potential if you see growth in other areas.

The problem is that we no longer have opportunity to see growth in those areas.

My current projection for Sorsby is Day 3, but there is significant buzz with him listed as Round 2. If he were taken in Rounds 3 or 4, he would likely enter the same Tier as the Young QBs listed in the Honorable Mention, with a chance to be my QB29. In Round 2, he would likely be in the QB28/29 conversation and in the Tiers, not the Mentions. In Round 1 — as unlikely as it would be — given the Fantasy-specific upside and potentially fewer analytical Red Flags as a multi-year starter, Sorsby would easily have an argument to be nearer the top of that Final Tier.

If you’re a commissioner, my recommendation for Sorsby may change based on the Draft Capital. FAAB is not a viable system for high draft cost in many leagues, but it probably is a viable system if Sorsby is a 5th-7th Round Pick, though based on NFL Media, this seems unlikely. A supplemental Draft designed similar to the NFL Supplemental Draft would likely be the most entertaining & engaging, though it does have some potential shortcomings. Not only do traded picks become a factor, but the assets people have to bet are quite a bit different; a rebuilding team bidding their 2nd Round pick is closer to a contending team bidding their 1st. And if a rebuilder does not want to bet a 2nd, then they have to hope for the player to fall to the 3rd. These are minor imperfections in the grand scheme, but at least this would be a reason to discuss the possibility of a Supplemental Draft with your league before it possibly happens.

Because I do not anticipate Sorsby playing in 2026 — including the potential that like Terrelle Pryor before him Sorsby is suspended for 2026 — the most logical and competitively balanced option is probably pushing Sorsby to 2027 and just putting him in that player pool. Managing that decision should take minimal commissioner work, and while if Sorsby plays that could be frustrating, it’s ultimately not a very big deal. If Sorsby is suspended for 2026, it makes particular sense to push him to 2027, though it will be interesting to see how the NFLPA reacts to that potential.

I have been getting these posts/podcasts out a bit late, so I’m hoping to change that up next week when I move on to the RB position.

Questions & Comments welcome,

Thanks as always,

C.J.