Commercial Spirits Intelligence

What goes up must come down? – US Whiskey spirit production in 2026

Martin Purvis — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 10:11:10 GMT

In this article we take a quick look at US whiskey new make spirit output in Quarter 1 for 2026. Much has been written about distillation pauses and closures, but we wanted to examine the available data and compare Q1 this year with previous years to see what insight can be gleaned. It can also help us make a forecast for FY 2026 to see where things go. It is intrinsically linked via consumption into maturing inventory, so we also take a quick peek at this data too.

Green shoots for Single Malt Scotch Whisky – but where?

Martin Purvis — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 07:54:02 GMT

In this article we take a deeper look at the recent six-monthly export data for Single Malt Scotch whisky. We wanted to examine which markets are growing again and which are contracting to help everyone understand where things look brighter. 2025 was clearly a tricky year with export volumes of 9 million cases reaching seven-year lows and a near 40% decline from peak volumes in 2022 (of 14 million cases). How will the rest of the year unfold? Only time will tell but right now things are turning in the right direction!

Photo by Jonathan Kemper on Unsplash

A Return to Growth? 1H Scotch whisky export data for 2026

Martin Purvis — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:22:09 GMT

In this article we have reviewed the first half 2026 export data for Scotch whisky now that the June data is available. We wanted to get another temperature check on the market given the tough news flow that has dominated the recent narrative. Conditions have been tricky, but the export data allows us to see what has left for foreign shores. This has more than straddled the most recent tariff situation into the USA. As a guide we have also analysed 1H data for the last 25 years to see how this has evolved and to provide historical context.

Photo by Paul .T on Unsplash

Who owns Scotland's whisky distilleries?

Duncan McFadzean — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 21:29:34 GMT

Photo by Wesley Tingey on Unsplash

This newsletter is a collaboration between Duncan McFadzean and Martin Purvis. In this newsletter we leverage our experience, contacts and market intel to provide meaningful analysis that speaks to relevant issues for you.

In a time when the Boards of many spirits companies are considering M&A as a way of survival, or to secure growth through cost savings, we wanted to look at the ownership of the distilleries in Scotch whisky. Beyond the obvious names, what type of owner holds the future of these companies. How industry consolidation plays out will also depend on this factor - if you are owned by a multi-billionaire there is clearly a less pressing need to secure cash quickly if they are able and willing to provide bridging finance until the cycle recovers.

Are GLP 1’s a growing threat or an overblown narrative?

Duncan McFadzean — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 16:43:22 GMT

Photo by Haberdoedas on Unsplash

If you live in the Northern Hemisphere, today marks a significant point for many - the start of the summer holiday period in August. Afterwards people tend to come home with intent to live a healthier life. This led us to write about GLP 1’s. What does the latest data and research show on take up and efficacy? Is this a growing threat for the spirits industry? What happens when people stop taking the drugs? Might pricing and format changes mean this is a major issue in the near term?

Two sides of the same coin - production and demand's impact on 2026 cashflow

Duncan McFadzean — Sat, 25 Jul 2026 19:06:24 GMT

Photo by Colin Watts on Unsplash

Two sides of the same coin

Following on from the work we have done on stock, production and implications for the supply chain, as well as the extensive analysis on export trends, we have been reflecting on two sides of the same story in the whisky industry.

On one hand, there is a surplus of stock from over-building capacity and laying down too much on the basis of a demand curve expectation that was wildly optimistic. On the other hand, there are signs that we are at or near the bottom of the demand cycle and that things may be slowly improving.

What does this mean for corporate cashflows? Are we facing another year of turmoil or might we see some green shoots?

Scenario planning for the whisky supply chain?

Martin Purvis — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:19:47 GMT

In this article we look at what our previous whisky production scenarios mean for supplies of grain and barrels. It is clear from all the signals we have called out recently that global whisky spirit production levels will be supressed for some time. Case goods sales are not the problem, contrary to popular belief, and the credentials of brown spirits remain strong, and sales volumes remain historically high (out with the 2022 post-COVID peak). In light of this we have reviewed how much raw material will be needed by the industry. This should help all participants understand the impact of the new production paradigm on the supply chain.

Irish Whiskey Production Scenarios: Is category growth the saviour?

Martin Purvis — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 10:29:42 GMT

Following on from our articles on both Scotch and US whiskey we turn our attention to the Emerald Isle. The rapid rise and current period in the Irish whiskey industry has been well trailed over the last few years. In this article we dust of the current position and look at how the category may evolve from its current position. We wanted to examine how the large stock position may unwind under certain conditions of production and consumption.

Photo by Robert Anasch on Unsplash

US Whiskey Consumption v Production: How might it evolve?

Martin Purvis — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 11:44:01 GMT

In this article we wanted to examine the supply and demand dynamics for US whiskey in the face of the sizeable current stock position that currently exists. Much is made of people drinking less in the current market, but our view is that consumption of US whiskey has remained steady over the last decade. On this basis much of the current reset is required by the significant stock position the exists versus this steady consumption pattern. We have reviewed the historical data to show this more clearly and designed two forward looking scenarios for production and consumption to see how various scenarios may impact the stock levels. In this way we provide insight on what may be expected and when the trade will return to recovery.

World Whiskies - A look at the smaller exporting nations

Duncan McFadzean — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 07:51:15 GMT

Photo by Javier Miranda on Unsplash

What has happened to world whiskies? There was much excitement about the growth of distilling whisky in many new locations around the world. New climates, new flavour profiles, new brands and new stories. The rise of Swedish, Finnish, Israeli and New Zealand whiskies loomed large in many conversations. We have analysed UN Comtrade data going back to 2014 to identify which categories grew fastest and what has happened in recent times. Has the trend to greater exploration died or are we taking a pause? What about China? Read on for more.

Future Scenario Planning – Production v Consumption in Scotch whisky?

Martin Purvis — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 08:19:31 GMT

In this article we build on previous analysis that covers both maturing inventory and new make spirit production estimates. If we link these historic values through to consumption levels, we can see how inventory may evolve going forwards in various scenarios. Production today leads to maturation, with some loss, to the angels and then naturally into consumption in the future. The role of all whisky casks is to eventually end up in bottles. If we make too much today, then we get stock build in the future and need more warehouses to accommodate the maturing liquid. If we do not make enough then we deplete the stock and then need to allocate stock to the markets which naturally brings price rises for finished product. The current dynamic has seen a stock build versus future growth that has so far failed to materialise. The trade has two levers to pull to deal with this situation. We can make less spirit, or drink more and one is easier than the other. Ideally achieving both is the aim. In this article we have used the last decades worth of data to understand what has happened recently and model a few scenarios for the next 7 years to see how things could unfold.

How is Tequila performing in 2026?

Duncan McFadzean — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 16:44:54 GMT

Photo by David García Sandoval on Unsplash

Time to talk Tequila?

How is Tequila faring? This week we took a look at the data for Tequila production and US sales, the two key factors in the industry. C.80% of Tequila production is estimated to be sold in the US. In a time of slowing consumer demand for premium spirits and multiple legal cases on the way, will the industry recover?

Make Less and Drink More – Why would you build a distillery right now?

Martin Purvis — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18:56:19 GMT

In the current downturn we asked ourselves why investors would choose to build a distillery. There are always winners and losers, and every market remains idiosyncratic but, in this article, we look at the current rate of sales using 2025 as a benchmark and assess the volume of new make spirit required to meet the same demand in the future. To some degree a crystal ball is required but we can use history as a guide to see where we believe near term production must go to be more sustainable for future generations.

The World is Your Oyster: The Export Market potential for US Whiskey

Martin Purvis — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 09:13:54 GMT

In this article we wanted to unpick the dynamics of the export market for US made whiskey. It is well known that the domestic trade accounts for more than 50% of all US whiskey and because of this the US has focussed less on global expansion than some of its world whisky competitors. Both Scotland and Ireland have small populations so have always needed to travel abroad in search of trade partners and drinkers. The US whiskey industry by comparison has been more reluctant to travel in search of the next consumer. With large inventory overhangs now omnipresent the undersold export market represents a huge challenge as well as the major sales opportunity for this category.

The Current Saviour of Scotch Whisky – the dynamics of bulk Scotch whisky exports!

Martin Purvis — Fri, 22 May 2026 16:18:16 GMT

In this article we wanted to examine the details of bulk whisky exports using the most recent Q1 export values as a frame to show how important this area has become for the industry. Without the volume growth from bulk, then we would have seen a different picture for the wider industry.

Cause for Cautious Optimism? – Q1 Scotch Whisky Export Data

Martin Purvis — Fri, 15 May 2026 13:33:54 GMT

In this article we review the most recent data for Q1 2026 Scotch whisky exports. In this way we can see how things have progressed versus similar periods in the last 20 years. The Q1 export numbers are an important temperature check for the whisky trade after the last 18 months of difficult news flow. Whilst they represent a small snapshot it does help everyone in the trade to have some idea of the direction of travel for each of the Scotch whisky subcategories.

The Famous Five & American Distribution Woes

Duncan McFadzean — Sat, 09 May 2026 21:28:19 GMT

Photo by Chris Linnett on Unsplash

The Famous Five & The Dismantling of RNDC:

One of the biggest stories in years is playing out in the US currently. It’s related to, but separate, from the downturn in spirits. It will impact many spirits companies around the world, including those that don’t yet, but wish to, sell in the USA.

Republic National Distributing Company, until recently the second-largest wine and spirits distributor in the United States, is being systematically dismantled. What began with a 2022 acquisition that many claim the company overpaid for has accelerated into a complete sell-off of operations across more than 35 states. RNDC’s collapse is reshaping American spirits distribution at precisely the moment when the entire industry faces its toughest market conditions in decades.

What have US tariffs really cost the Scotch Whisky industry?

Martin Purvis — Sun, 03 May 2026 20:47:25 GMT

Given the recent news on the removal of US tariffs on Scotch whisky, we wanted to see how they have impacted exports to the US since their reintroduction in April 2025. In a world of many factors it is always impossible to lay the blame for all export changes on tariffs, but in this article we take a look at the most recent 11 months’ worth of trade data for Scotch whisky and compare it to the same period in the previous year, when no tariffs were in place, to see what the data really tells us.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

All about the people: Revenue per Employee in the Whisky Industry

Martin Purvis — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 14:30:47 GMT

I have been thinking about this for a while and following deep and meaningful discussions with a customer and good friend (you know who you are!), I decided to put pen to paper. For whisky businesses above a certain size and that report in the UK, there is much to be gleaned from annual filings. On this basis, we wanted to look at a spread of whisky producers and examine their most recently reported revenues and compare them with the average number of employees. In this way, we can assess where distillers are on the journey and analyse their relative efficiency through a simple metric that we have seen used sparingly in some reports.

Photo by Mathias Reding on Unsplash

A Game of Two Halves: Inventory Holdings in Irish Whiskey

Martin Purvis — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 08:39:21 GMT

In this article we take a close look at the maturing inventory levels in Irish whiskey. We then use this to analyse sales and generate stock to use values for the category. In this way we can take a close look at what is happening in one of the most dynamic whiskey categories. This analysis would not have been possible without the commission and debate from the team at LYQD (https://www.lyqd.io/).