Competent Investor - Tom Bodrovics

Martin Armstrong - The Stock Market Won’t Crash Until Gentlemen Prefer Bonds

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 22:00:05 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just wrapped up a fascinating conversation with Martin Armstrong on this week’s exclusive substack episode. If you’re someone who keeps an eye on the stock market—or even if you don’t—I think you’ll find our discussion enlightening.

Martin, the CEO of Armstrong Economics, has a unique take on economic cycles and market predictions. He’s be…

Destruction of Confidence | Bessent's Bond Market Intervention

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:36:21 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just had a lengthy but interesting conversation with Chase Taylor, a global macro strategist. We dove deep into the recent bond market interventions and what they mean for our financial landscape. If you’re at all interested in macroeconomics, you’ll want to hear this.

Chase, who has a background in the military rather than the traditional Wall Street route, brings a unique perspective to the conversation. He’s not just looking at numbers; he combines analytical techniques from his intelligence work with insights from history and nature to create a compelling macro framework. This week, we discussed how recent actions by the treasury, particularly those led by Scott Bessent, might have been a significant overreach. "Trump seemingly got overconfident after Venezuela," Chase pointed out. This overconfidence seems to have translated into a historic misstep in the bond market.

What’s really interesting is how Chase framed the bond market's reaction. He explained that the treasury’s attempt to intervene felt like a gamble, one that didn’t pan out as they hoped. They tried to manipulate yields down by a small amount, and while it worked temporarily, the market quickly rebounded, showing that investors weren’t convinced by the intervention. It’s a classic case of the market not buying what the treasury is trying to sell.

Chase also touched on the broader implications of these interventions. With rising prices in various sectors, from agriculture to technology, the stakes are high. We’re entering a phase where the credibility of the treasury and the Fed is increasingly on the line. As Chase said, "there's a lot of shut-in production... and if it was a literal shortage, we've got problems."

This episode is important for anyone trying to make sense of the current economic landscape. Chase has some key insights into the complexities of the bond market and the factors at play. So if you're curious about how these macroeconomic shifts could affect you, tune in to this episode. You won’t regret it.

Thanks everyone, and happy listening!

About the Guest
Chase Taylor — Global Macro Strategist and Editor at Pinecone Macro

Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.

Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.

Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.

Website: https://www.pineconemacro.com
X/Twitter: @pineconemacro
Substack: https://pineconemacroresearch.substack.com
Website: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com

Chris MacIntosh: Pension Funds and Investors Trapped in the Looming Debt Implosion

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 17:44:00 GMT

Pension Funds and Investors Trapped in the Looming Debt Implosion

Hey guys, I just wrapped up a deep conversation with Chris MacIntosh, the founder of Capitalist Exploits. If you're concerned at all about where the financial world is headed, this one is a must-listen.

Chris, who’s navigated investing across multiple countries, shares some striking insights about pension funds and the looming debt crisis. He points out a troubling reality: many pension funds are invested in assets they don't even fully understand. He said, "So now you have pension funds who are invested into this stuff, and they don't even know it. In fact, I was working with some pension fund managers who don't even know what they bought."

This really hit home for me. It’s wild to think that these funds, which are supposed to safeguard our retirement, are being fed high-yield debt vehicles that could be ticking time bombs. Chris elaborated on how these funds have layered leverage on private credit, and the implications could be catastrophic as interest rates continue to climb. If you’re wondering how this all holds together, he explains that the manipulation of financial markets is a key factor, but even that’s showing signs of strain.

We also touched on China and emerging markets, where Chris sees significant value, particularly in Hong Kong equities. He remarked, "That these guys have a massive under allocation to commodities, emerging markets, things like China." It's intriguing to think about where the smart money might actually be hiding.

As we delved deeper, Chris laid out how the current debt scenario is forcing many funds to gate withdrawals. Imagine being told you can't access your own money because the fund is locked up. It's a scary thought, but it’s happening. With pension funds loaded with assets that may not be liquid when we need them, we're all left wondering about the stability of our financial futures.

Overall, this episode brings to light critical issues that could affect all of us. If you're curious about the precarious state of our financial systems and where to look for potential opportunities, I highly recommend checking it out. Trust me, you won’t want to miss this one.

About the Guest
Chris MacIntosh — Hedge Fund Manager and Founder of Capitalist Exploits

Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived and invested from sevent different countries. After a career at top-tier investment banks such as JP Morgan, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35 million into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth.

Website: https://capitalistexploits.at
X/Twitter: https://x.com/capitalistexp

Francis Hunt: Gold Soars as Debt Crumbles | Why Gold Broke Out Today

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:34:19 GMT

Recorded on: August 19, 2026

Your host, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the market sniper himself Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, and the Founder of The Market Sniper. The discussion centers on a dramatic gold price surge and the underlying debt market distress. Hunt explains that the Federal Reserve is cornered, unable to maneuver as major holders like Japan face a “Hotel California” scenario with U.S. Treasuries unable to sell without triggering a crash, forced instead into repurchase agreements. This debt debasement, he argues, is a Western malaise, with the U.S. as the hegemon suffering most.

Some Competent Links:
Website: https://competentinvestor.com
X: https://x.com/CompetentInv
Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-7699939

The crisis is not isolated; the UK gilt market has already seen intervention, and similar pressures are building globally. In this environment, gold becomes the ultimate safe haven, with Hunt detailing a live trade that capitalized on a technical breakout, using his HVF methodology to enter long positions ahead of the news-driven rally. He emphasizes that gold moves first, with silver expected to outperform later once the gold-silver ratio completes a head-and-shoulders pattern.

Turning to currencies, Hunt challenges the DXY’s relevance, showing that the dollar has been steadily devaluing against key trade partners like China and Mexico, which better reflect America’s structural deficit. He illustrates true inflation through a “Mars bar index,” demonstrating a 7.5% annual debasement over 31 years, far above official figures.

The conversation also touches on soft commodities, with bullish technical setups in cocoa and coffee. Throughout, Hunt advocates for self-reliance, sound money, and using trading opportunities to build wealth and optionality, urging listeners to protect themselves from the coming debt reset by stacking physical precious metals and maintaining integrity and joy in the face of dystopian trends.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:30 - Gold Price Surge Analysis
00:03:00 - Debt & Open Secrets
00:06:30 - U.K. Malaise & Western Debt
00:10:00 - Kospi and Downsides
00:14:30 - Bonds and Finding Exits
00:19:43 - Gold Silver Ratio Patterns
00:25:20 - Dollar Devaluation Insights
00:31:50 - Inflation Mars Bar Index
00:39:49 - Embracing Life
00:43:40 - Soft Commodities Outlook
00:48:50 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/themarketsniper
X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper

Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?

He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.

Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.

He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.

#Gold #DebtCrisis #FederalReserve #Inflation #PreciousMetals #Silver #Trading #MonetaryPolicy #Commodities #WealthBuilding #MarketAnalysis #FinancialFreedom #Economy #Investing #Geopolitics

Adam Hamilton: This Shift in Fed Policy Could Unleash Gold's True Potential

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 18:14:21 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just wrapped up an insightful conversation with Adam Hamilton, the founder of Zeal LLC, and I couldn’t wait to share some of the highlights with you. Adam’s deep dives into market trends, especially regarding gold, always leave me with a fresh perspective, and this episode was no exception.

We kicked things off by discussing the recent bre…

David Hunter: Momentum is Driving Straight Up Into a Generational Bust

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 17:35:18 GMT

Hey everyone,

Last week I had the pleasure of once again chatting with David Hunter, the Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors. If you’re at all interested in the current state of the stock market and the potential shifts we might be facing, this episode is a must-listen.

David has been in the investment game for over 25 years, and his contrarian insights are both enlightening and thought-provoking. We kicked off our conversation by discussing his melt-up thesis for the stock market and how at present the SPY is significantly higher.

One of the key takeaways from our discussion was David’s perspective on the 44-year secular bull market that began in August 1982. He believes we are nearing the top of this cycle and that it could happen as soon as this fall.

David also delved into the role of liquidity in the market, suggesting that we’re currently positioned for potentially explosive growth in the stock market. He mentions, “My target for the S&P is 10,000... That’s normal times two or three years worth of returns. We might get it in three or four or five months.” This perspective is both exciting and a bit daunting, as it suggests we might be on the brink of a significant shift.

If you’ve been following the markets or if you’re just trying to make sense of the current economic landscape, I highly recommend giving this episode a listen. David’s ability to connect the dots between macroeconomic trends and market movements is quite an interesting take.

Best, Tom

About the Guest

David Hunter — Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors

David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.

X/Twitter: @DaveHcontrarian

Eric Yeung: Deciphering China's Master Plan For Gold with Vince Lanci

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 20:52:34 GMT

Deciphering China's Master Plan For Gold

In our latest episode of the Competent Investor, I along with Vince Lanci had the pleasure of chatting with Eric Yeung, an investor and former contract manufacturer in China. We dove deep into the evolving landscape of gold trading, especially focusing on China’s significant moves in the market.

One of the standout moments was when Eric pointed out the importance of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). Eric emphasized that over 70% of SGE contracts are delivered physically, a stark contrast to the paper-dominated markets we often hear about.

We discussed the recent changes in China’s trading policies, particularly how retail customers can no longer hold leveraged positions or forward contracts at the SGE. Eric explained that this is part of a larger strategy to ensure that the SGE solidifies its role in the international gold market. He said, "I think what is going to happen... is that the forward contracts are going to move from the SGE to the SHFE and also to Hong Kong." This shift is pivotal as it aims to enhance liquidity and streamline access to gold trading.

What I found particularly fascinating was how these changes reflect a larger chess move by China. As Eric pointed out, they are getting their house in order before opening up to more international players. By prioritizing physical delivery and pushing retail customers towards exchanges like Hong Kong, they seem to be gearing up for something much bigger.

As we wrapped up our conversation, Eric mentioned the inexorable shift of gold trading and pricing power moving east. He said, "The commodity industry thrives in the region of demand... demand goes east, vaults go east, businesses go east, exchanges go east." It’s a powerful reminder that the dynamics of gold trading are shifting and we need to pay attention to these changes.

If you're interested in the future of gold and want to understand the implications of these shifts, I highly recommend giving this episode a listen. Eric's insights are not only enlightening but also crucial for anyone looking to navigate the evolving market landscape.

About the Guest
Eric Yeung — Investor and Former Contract Manufacturer In China

X/Twitter:

Vince Lanci Guest Links:
Substack:

X: https://x.com/Sorenthek
Zerohedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc

Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.

In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.

China’s Quiet Domination During the US’s Middle East Distraction

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:34:21 GMT

Hey friends,

I hope you're all doing well! I just wrapped up an always fascinating conversation with Luke Gromen, and I felt compelled to share some key takeaways with you. We dove deep into the dynamics of the U.S. economy and the shifting global landscape, particularly how China is quietly positioning itself while the U.S. grapples with its own distractions in the Middle East.

One of the standout points Luke made was about the U.S. national debt, which recently hit a staggering $39.5 trillion. As Luke pointed out, this situation creates a tricky environment for the Federal Reserve. They face a tough choice: either raise interest rates, risking dysfunction in the treasury market, or maintain market stability at the cost of a weaker dollar. It's a classic case of "damned if you do, damned if you don’t."

Luke's insights on China's position were particularly striking. He notes that, China has managed to adapt and even thrive during these tumultuous times. They are not just sitting back; they're capitalizing on the distractions the U.S. creates. With their ability to pivot and provide tangible goods that improve living standards, they are presenting a compelling alternative, especially to regions like Africa, where infrastructure and quality of life improvements are desperately needed.

We also touched on the potential for stablecoins as a solution to the U.S. treasury market issues. But Luke raised an interesting point about their effectiveness, especially in comparison to what China could offer. Why would someone in Africa prefer a low-yielding dollar-backed stablecoin when they could have access to better goods and services from China? It’s a question that really makes you think about where true value lies.

If you’re curious about the shifting tides of global economics and want to understand more about how these forces are at play, I highly recommend checking out the full episode. Luke always brings a unique perspective that’s not only insightful but incredibly relevant to our current situation.

Until next time, take care!

Tom

About the Guest
Luke Gromen — President and Founder of FFTT

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Website: https://fftt-llc.com/
X/Twitter: @lukegromen

Rick Rule: Why the Metals Aren't Dead and When I'm Buying More

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:15:59 GMT

Recorded on: July 16, 2026

Why the Metals Aren’t Dead and When I’m Buying More
I had the pleasure of chatting with Rick Rule in our latest episode, and as always, he brought a wealth of insights into the world of natural resources investing. We dove deep into the current state of the metals market, especially in light of recent price declines in gold and silver. If you’re feeling uneasy about these fluctuations, you’re not alone—but Rick has a refreshing perspective.

For those interested in accessing conference content, that’s available here: Rick Rule Investment Symposium

Rick shared that while many newer investors are shaken by a 20% drop in gold or a 50% drop in silver, seasoned investors see these cycles as part of the game. He pointed out that, ‘You can suffer a 20 or 30 or 50% decline in a cyclical decline in a secular bull market and not violate the market.’ This is a crucial distinction for anyone looking to invest in precious metals. For those of us who are consistent buyers, lower prices often represent an opportunity rather than a crisis.
What was particularly interesting was Rick’s observation about the sentiment at the recent investment conference he hosted. He noted that wealthier attendees, who tend to save in gold, welcomed the decline in prices. For them, this was a chance to buy more. This aligns with Rick’s own strategy; he’s a consistent buyer because he sees the long-term value in gold. ‘Lower gold prices are indeed in my interest,’ he said.
We also talked about the broader market dynamics. Despite the challenges faced by many junior mining companies, Rick emphasized that the best projects are still attracting significant investment. He remarked on the increasing sophistication of capital markets, noting that, ‘Good projects finance themselves.’ This is encouraging for anyone keeping an eye on quality investments in this space.
If you’re wondering when to buy more, Rick’s advice is clear: focus on quality and think long-term. The best opportunities often lie in the downturns, and with the right mindset, these market conditions can be advantageous. We also touched on M&A activity in the mining sector, which seems poised to increase as companies look to capitalize on their cash flow.
Overall, this episode is packed with valuable insights that can help guide your investment strategy in the current market. If you’re looking to make sense of the metals market, I highly recommend giving it a listen.
Watch the full episode on YouTube

About the Guest
Rick Rule — Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
• Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
• X/Twitter: @realrickrule
• X: https://x.com/@realrickrule
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia
• Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com
• Battle Bank: https://battlebank.com

Global Oil Market Chaos - 3 Factors Making For a Larger Energy Crisis

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 18:09:26 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just had a really eye-opening conversation with Rory Johnston on our latest episode of the Competent Investor. If you’re curious about the current chaos in the global oil market, this is an episode definitely worth a look.

Rory is such a wealth of knowledge, and he breaks down the complexities of the oil market in a way that’s both engaging and incredibly informative. We talked about three major factors contributing to the current energy crisis and it's quite intricate. For instance, Rory pointed out how recent geopolitical tensions have thrown everything into disarray.

One of the most compelling parts of our discussion revolved around the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Rory explained how there was a significant uptick in oil traffic, particularly after the Memorandum of Understanding was signed, which was supposed to ease tensions in the region. However, he cautioned that this was a temporary spike. As he put it, "But in general, we've seen a collapse back down to levels that we hadn't seen since before the MOU..."

What really struck me was Rory's insight into the hidden dynamics at play particularly with China. He noted that much of what we’re seeing now in terms of oil supply is actually just a shift of existing stocks rather than new production. This distinction is crucial for understanding the current landscape and the potential for future shortages.

If you're interested in energy markets, global politics, or just want to understand what’s happening in the world today, I highly recommend checking out this episode and Rory's SubStack. Rory's expertise shines through, and I think you’ll walk away with a clearer picture of the challenges we face ahead.

Take a listen, and let me know what you think!

Best, Tom

About the Guest
Rory Johnston — Commodity Market Research - Specializing in Oil & Gas

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

X/Twitter: @Rory_Johnston
Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/

America’s Affordability Crisis is Building into a Crash in 2026

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 21:05:34 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just wrapped up an eye-opening conversation with Melody Wright on the latest episode of the Competent Investor, and I can’t wait to share some insights with you.

Melody, a seasoned strategist and writer, has been navigating the complex waters of the housing market for years. We dove deep into the current state of the housing market and the…

Gold | Why Central Banks Continue Buying in an Uncertain Time

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 20:22:43 GMT

Hey everyone,

In this week's episode, I had the pleasure of chatting with Jaime Carrasco, a seasoned portfolio manager and investment advisor from Harbourfront Wealth Management. Jaime brings over 25 years of experience to the table and has some really thought-provoking insights about gold and the current financial climate.

We kicked off the conversation by discussing the volatile nature of precious metals. If you’ve been following the markets, you know that gold and silver have seen significant price fluctuations recently. Jaime pointed out that this volatility is just part of the game, especially in a bull market. He emphasized that the key is to focus on why we own these metals in the first place: not just for profit, but as a hedge against a shifting monetary landscape.

It was fascinating to hear Jaime’s perspective on central banks’ ongoing gold purchases. He mentioned, "When you look at the fact that I would say that of the trillions and trillions of dollars in the equity markets, what percentage of those are just counterparty risk of ETFs versus owning actual shares?" It’s a reminder to consider where we place our trust and investments.

One of the standout points from our chat was how many companies are being approached by end users for silver—he cited Samsung as a clear example. Jaime said, "To me, I don’t dwell among the negative. I look at the positive and the changes that are taking place." This forward-thinking approach is something I really admire; it encourages us to seek opportunities even amid uncertainty.

Jaime also shared some insights about the bond market and rising interest rates, which he sees as problematic rather than attractive. With so much debt globally, he believes that the traditional safe havens may not be as reliable as they once were. Instead, he encourages a strategic allocation towards precious metals as a safeguard.

As we wrapped up, I found myself reflecting on Jaime’s advice to build a solid allocation in this sector. It’s a timely reminder that, like sailing, our financial journey is about adjusting our sails in response to the winds of change. I hope you find this episode as enlightening as I did!

Catch you next time, Tom

Watch the full episode on YouTube

About the Guest
Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management

Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.

Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.

Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.

"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."

Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.com
X/Twitter: @ijcarrasco
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/
E-Mail: mailto:jaime@jcwealth.ca

Mike McGlone: Crypto Leading the Way Down - Where Does Opportunity Lie?

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 15:02:54 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just had a fascinating conversation with Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, on this week’s episode of the Competent Man Podcast. We dove deep into the current state of the markets, particularly crypto and commodities, and let me tell you, it’s a wild landscape out there.

Mike has an impressive background…

Debunking the Tank Bottom Narrative and Oil Prices Going Forward

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 19:32:00 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just wrapped up an incredible conversation with John Johnston, or as he likes to be called, JJ. With 48 years in the commodities trading game, JJ brings a wealth of experience and insight into the oil market, and this episode is a must-listen if you're trying to make sense of the current fluctuations in oil prices.

One of the standout moments was when JJ tackled the common narrative surrounding oil shortages. He pointed out that the perception of a looming crisis is often disconnected from reality.

We dove deep into the dynamics of supply and demand, particularly how recent geopolitical events have been affecting the market. JJ highlighted how the oil market is often seen as reactive to conflicts, but in this case, he emphasized that we have ample reserves. He mentioned, "Oil is back down. So, whatever price implications there were from CPI, I consumer spending should reverse." It’s a refreshing take that challenges the panic-driven narratives we often hear.

JJ also discussed the current trading patterns and how they might shape the future. He explained that while many have been dumping their treasuries, it’s a bit misguided. There’s a lot of complexity here, and as he noted, "That's a pretty, pretty big swing... for direct investment in the United States, it's like vertical."

If you’re curious about what might be next for oil prices, JJ has some thoughts that might surprise you. He believes we could see prices hovering around the $70 mark, with potential dips into the low 50s before stabilizing again. With his vast experience, it's hard to overlook his insights.

I can't recommend this episode enough for anyone interested in understanding the intricacies of the oil market. Trust me, you don’t want to miss it. Check it out and let me know your thoughts!

Tom

About the Guest
John Johnston — Veteran Commodities Trader & Substack Publisher

John Johnston, known as JJ, is a veteran commodities trader with 48 years of experience. He began his career as a runner on Wall Street, became an account executive at Conti Commodities in 1976, and in 1977 purchased seats on the NYMEX and COMEX, trading from the pits for the next three decades. Over his career, he worked for firms including Drexel Burnham Lambert, Rudolf Wolff, REFCO, Mann Financial, The Standard Bank of South Africa, and ADM Investor Services.

Through his Substack (jj745.substack.com), JJ shares a blend of old-school trading wisdom, selective technical analysis, market history, and lore. As he says, “I never try to be right. I try to be honest. I never want a reader to think what I think. I want the reader to know what I know.”

Substack: https://jj745.substack.com

This is the Type of Setup You Look For as an Investor

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 17:38:36 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just wrapped up a fascinating conversation with Jesse Felder on the latest episode of the Competent Investor. If you’re into investing—or even just curious about the current market dynamics—this one is definitely worth your time.

Jesse dives deep into the current oil market, and let me tell you, the landscape is wild right now. We’re seeing oil inventories drop to their lowest levels in 40 years, yet institutional investors are more bearish on oil than ever. It’s a classic case of where the fundamentals don’t match market sentiment. Jesse pointed out, "It makes for numbers look awesome. But your cash flow looks terrible... So, that is what markets are starting to reckon with."

What struck me most was Jesse's take on the upcoming demand for oil. With the strategic petroleum reserves at historic lows, countries will need to refill these stocks, which means we could see significant upward pressure on prices. This situation is exacerbated by the ongoing geopolitical tensions, which create a bullish backdrop that many investors seem to ignore. Jesse noted, "So, we’re going to bring on a half trillion dollars of new supply at the same time demand... is the opposite of the energy setup."

We also talked about how the AI boom is overshadowing traditional sectors like energy. It’s fascinating to see how a few tech stocks are driving the market performance, while energy remains undervalued. Jesse mentioned that despite a strong five-year run for energy, investors still seem to be bearish. This is a contrarian signal that I find intriguing.

If you’re looking for insights into where to find opportunities in this seemingly chaotic environment, Jesse's perspective is invaluable. His experience in the hedge fund world and his knack for seeing beyond the surface can help any investor navigate these turbulent waters. I genuinely think you’ll come away with a better understanding of the current market dynamics after listening to this episode.

Check it out, and let me know what you think!

Best, Tom

About the Guest
Jesse Felder — Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report

Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo! Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.

Website: https://thefelderreport.com
X/Twitter: @jessefelder
Articles: https://thefelderreport.com/blog/

Gold Wins | Why This Reset is Your Greatest Opportunity

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 13:42:33 GMT

I had the pleasure of chatting with Don Durrett on the latest episode of the Competent Investor Podcast, and I have to say, his insights are nothing short of fascinating. Don is an experienced investor and the founder of Goldstockdata.com, and he shared some compelling thoughts on the current state of the economy and why he believes gold is not just a s…

What If the Fed Doesn’t Hike this Year

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 18:20:17 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just wrapped up an eye-opening conversation with Robert Sinn on this week's episode of the Competent Man Podcast. If you’ve followed the markets lately, you know there's been a lot of chatter about the Fed and its potential moves on interest rates. Robert brought some clarity to the discussion, especially around the mining sector, which is feeling the pressure from a strong dollar and rising yields.

One of the things that struck me was Robert’s take on how the current market feels like a 'perfect negative storm' for junior mining stocks. He pointed out that when the dollar strengthens, it puts a lot of strain on these stocks, and right now, we’re seeing that play out as the dollar hits new highs. He said, "It’s kind of a perfect negative storm here for the mining sector, especially the junior mining sector," which really sums up the sentiment in the market right now.

We also dove into the idea of sentiment in investing. Robert mentioned, "Of course, sentiment plays into that quite well." It’s fascinating how investor emotions can sway the market, particularly in the commodities space. As we talked, it became clear that many investors are feeling pretty pessimistic, which might actually signal that we’re nearing a turning point. He pointed out that the daily sentiment index for gold dipped to just 13 recently, which is pretty low historically.

What I found particularly interesting was Robert's perspective on AI in trading. He cautioned that while AI can help us cut through data quickly, it can sometimes paint an overly optimistic picture. "You have to be careful with AI because it tends to want to always put a very optimistic flavor on everything," he said. It’s a reminder that we need to be critical of the tools we use in our analysis.

With the recent sell-off, Robert sees potential buying opportunities for those looking to invest in the mining sector. He mentioned something that really resonated with me: when the market goes on sale, it’s often time to take a closer look at what’s available. As we navigate these unpredictable waters, it’s essential to keep an eye on the long-term outlook rather than just the immediate data.

If you’re interested in the intricacies of the market and how they could impact your investments, I highly recommend giving this episode a listen. Robert’s insights are invaluable, especially in today’s economic landscape.

Until next time, take care!

About the Guest
Robert Sinn — Investor, Trader, Market Commentator, and Author of the Gold Finger Capital Substack

Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession.

Across his extensive career Robert has acted as a market participant, commentator and trader performing dozens of site visits, CEO interviews and generating a wealth of research spanning multiple market cycles.

X/Twitter: @CEOTechnician
Substack: https://robertsinn.substack.com
CEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger
YouTube: https://YouTube.com/@GoldfingerCapital

Steve St. Angelo: Gold and Silver Prices Face More Volatility With a Looming Deflationary Crash

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 22:06:59 GMT

Steve St. Angelo, founder of the SRSRocco Report, discussed a wide range of fundamental factors impacting precious metals, energy, and the broader economy, cautioning against sensationalist price targets. He argued that the recent parabolic surge in gold and silver, driven by massive FOMO, leverage, and specific narratives like a supposed Chinese export ban, has resulted in a necessary consolidation phase.

Current margins for miners are historically high, but a correction is likely not over, with technical gaps suggesting potential downside to $3,500 gold and $55 silver, especially during a broader market sell-off. A central theme was the fragility of energy markets. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz serves as a preview of future constraints, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing inventories approaching critical functional minimums. This situation masks deeper issues, including opaque oil stockpile drawdowns in China.

Steve predicted that higher oil prices will manifest in the near term, contributing to economic stress. He identified the AI bubble as the primary catalyst for an impending recession, far more destructive than the dot-com crash, as trillions of dollars in data center buildout risk becoming stranded assets. The popping of this bubble, combined with liquidations by fundamentally unprofitable Bitcoin mining companies, is expected to trigger a significant deflationary wave. In this environment, St. Angelo sees investment demand, not industrial or central bank buying, as the ultimate long-term driver for silver, which will protect wealth as other financial assets suffer from peak energy constraints.

He also highlighted the market’s dysfunctional reality, noting that a spike to $300 silver would likely break the bullion dealer system, creating a liquidity crisis where sellers massively outnumber buyers.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:58 - Gold Silver Prod. Costs & C.B.
00:04:23 - China Oil Inventory Drawdowns
00:05:49 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Analysis
00:09:44 - Oil Inventory Timeline Risks
00:14:56 - AI Bubble and Recession Risks
00:19:43 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges
00:24:04 - Precious Metals Miner Margins
00:26:00 - Gold Silver Risk Asset Behavior
00:28:26 - Future Gold Silver Outlook
00:35:03 - Trading Silver For Gold Oz.
00:42:51 - Bitcoin Miner Economics
00:49:18 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/srsroccoreport
Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SRSroccoReport

Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.

Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles in some of the top precious metals and financial websites.

You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-klare-blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, Pmbull, Deviantinvestor, PmBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.

#PreciousMetals #GoldSilver #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #SPRInventory #CentralBanks #InvestmentDemand #SilverMining #GoldMining #AIBubble #MarketCrash #DeflationaryWave #BitcoinMining #PeakEnergy #WealthProtection

Lobo Tiggre: Capitalizing On Opportunities in the Resource Sector: Finding the Undervalued Gems

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 21:11:12 GMT

Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, joined your host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the complex interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and commodity markets. Lobo argued that the war in the Middle East, while not inherently inflationary, fuels inflation through the government’s response—specifically, massive deficit spending and money printing to finance the conflict. He warned that this pattern of "profligacy" historically dethrones currencies and ends empires, placing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in an impossible position between political pressure to cut rates and the economic need to fight inflation.

Recorded on: June 16, 2026

Actionable show notes and summaries of the key ideas presented in the interview:

Here’s how listeners can turn Lobo’s advice from the interview into practical, actionable steps. These draw directly from his reports and core philosophy of disciplined speculation: buy low, sell high, avoid chasing hype, use systematic rules over emotion, and stay patient for high-probability setups.

1.The Upside Maximizer

The Upside Maximizer is Lobo Tiggre’s simple, mechanical system for locking in big gains on winning resource stocks—without guessing market tops or cutting your upside too early. It’s one of the tools readers thank him for most (alongside his Pre-Production Sweet Spot research).

Core Problem It Solves: Resource stocks (miners, explorers, etc.) are extremely volatile. You buy low on a great story, the stock runs up 3x–10x+, and then it corrects sharply. Many investors either:

Sell too early (miss the rest of the run), or
Hold too long and watch big paper profits evaporate.

Lobo’s insight: Stop-losses are great for protecting against losses on new positions, but once you have a big winner, you need something to protect profits while still letting the stock run. How the Upside Maximizer Works (High-Level)

Buy low as usual — on conviction setups (e.g., pre-production sweet spot companies, strong fundamentals, etc.).
Let winners run normally.
When the stock becomes a clear winner (significant unrealized gains), you apply a trailing stop tuned specifically for upside protection.
- It’s not a tight stop to avoid small dips.
- It’s a ratcheting mechanism that moves up as the price rises.
- The stock can still fluctuate within its normal volatility — you stay in for further upside.
- Only when it breaks the trailing level (indicating the uptrend is likely over) do you sell and realize the gains.
Result: You capture most of the big move while banking real profits to redeploy elsewhere (buying the next low).

Key distinction: Traditional trailing stops protect capital. The Upside Maximizer maximizes captured upside on proven winners. It turned into a portfolio-wide signal for Lobo in early 2026 when multiple triggers fired across gold/silver stocks after the big spike—he sold high and moved to cash.

Why It’s Powerful

It removes emotion and market-timing guesswork.
It has helped Lobo achieve strong realized returns (he’s reported averages over 80% on closed trades after using it).
It works in both bull and bear phases for the sector.
It’s repeatable and disciplined — exactly the “buy low, sell high, wash, rinse, repeat” philosophy he preaches.

The free report goes much deeper with:

The full rationale and psychology behind it.
Exact step-by-step rules and examples.
How to set the trailing parameters.
Real case studies from his own trading.
Reader feedback and common pitfalls to avoid.

If you’ve ever kicked yourself for selling a 5-bagger too soon—or watching it give back most of the gains—this is the practical system designed to fix that.

It’s here to read for free:

2. Target the Pre-Production Sweet Spot (PPSS / Golden Runway)

Goal: Focus on the highest-probability, lowest-risk part of the mining lifecycle for outsized gains.

The Pre-Production Sweet Spot (PPSS), also called the Golden Runway, is Lobo Tiggre’s most celebrated original contribution to resource stock speculation. It’s the high-probability, lower-risk window on the famous Lassonde Curve where junior mining companies deliver some of the best risk-adjusted returns in the entire sector.
Quick Context: The Lassonde
Pierre Lassonde’s famous chart shows how mining stocks typically behave:
- Early exploration → huge volatility and potential multi-baggers (but very high risk).
- Development/“orphan” period → often sideways or down as the story drags on.
- Then the late-stage ramp-up as the company actually builds and starts producing → another strong upward leg.
PPSS is that final upward slope — from the formal construction decision (positive feasibility study, permits secured, financing in place) through to first production (first gold/silver/copper pour, etc.).
investingwhisperer.com
What the Data Shows (This Is What Makes It Special)Lobo did the hard work nobody else had: He analyzed over 100–124 first-time mine-building companies spanning decades (1980s onward).
Key findings:
- ~95% success rate — Companies that decide to build their first mine almost always reach first production. That’s extraordinary predictability in a notoriously risky business.
  independentspeculator.com
- Average return: Around 100–111% (roughly a double) from construction decision to first pour. Some top performers delivered 700%+ gains.
  investingwhisperer.com
- It works in both bull and bear markets (stronger in bulls, but still positive on average).
- Timeframe: Typically 1.5–2 years (average ~568 days).
This is far better than the “modest 10–20%” gains that even Doug Casey originally expected. The market knows a mine is being built, but it still significantly underprices the de-risking and upcoming cash flow as milestones are hit.
Why It Feels Like “Cheating” (in a Good Way)
- Reduced risk: You’re no longer betting on “maybe they’ll find something” or “maybe the study will be good.” The big unknowns are largely behind you.
- High probability + solid upside: It’s not a 10-bagger lottery ticket, but it’s one of the most reliable ways to compound capital in the mining sector.
- Pairs perfectly with his Upside Maximizer — you can ride the PPSS run and then systematically lock in profits.
Lobo calls this his “greatest discovery” and favorite place to speculate because it turns mining investing from a crapshoot into something closer to a repeatable edge. It’s one of the most practical, data-backed pieces in the junior mining world — exactly the kind of edge that separates disciplined speculators from gamblers.
Grab the free report here:
Once you read the numbers and see the logic, you’ll never look at late-stage developers the same way again. It’s concise, eye-opening, and immediately actionable. Highly recommended!

3. Marginal Producers: More Leverage to Higher Gold Prices?

The article explores a tempting idea in gold mining investing: that “marginal producers” (mines barely breaking even or scraping by with tiny profits) offer explosive upside when gold prices rise. The Core Concept (The “Leverage” Sweet Spot)Picture this:

A struggling marginal miner ekes out just $5 profit per ounce of gold.
A strong, healthy producer rakes in $500 per ounce.

Now gold jumps $100/oz.

The marginal guy’s margins skyrocket 20x (to $105/oz).
The solid producer’s margins improve only 20% (to $600/oz).

On paper, the marginal player should deliver far bigger share-price gains. Some famous resource investors swear by this dynamic—the bigger the leverage to rising prices, the better the potential payoff. It sounds like the perfect speculative sweet spot: buy the weaklings now, ride the gold bull market, and watch them transform into cash machines.

Why Lobo Tiggre (the author) Doesn’t Chase It: Tiggre acknowledges the logic but pushes back hard with real-world caveats. He argues that marginal producers usually carry hidden (and sometimes fatal) risks:

Cash flow dries up → exploration, maintenance, and development get slashed. Recovery can be slow or impossible.
Some are marginal because of bad management, inefficiency, theft, or fundamentally flawed mines—higher gold prices won’t magically fix incompetence.
Downside is brutal: if gold drops $100 instead, the marginal producer goes negative fast while the healthy one keeps printing money.
Share prices are driven by far more than just margins (discoveries, management quality, geopolitics, etc.).

Bottom line from the piece: Marginal producers can offer more upside… if everything breaks right. But they usually come with way more risk. Tiggre prefers solid, consistently profitable producers for his portfolio—he wants companies that will still be standing even during black-swan events like COVID shutdowns. If you want to read the whole article. you’ll come away understanding when the “sweet spot” is real versus when it’s a trap—and why consistent profitability is his non-negotiable filter for producers.

Grab the article here:

Until next time,

Tom

How the AI Boom is Fueling a Commodity Supercycle

Competent man - Tom Bodrovics — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 21:57:45 GMT

Hey everyone,

I just wrapped up a thought provoking conversation with Graham Summers, the President and Chief Market Strategist at Phoenix Capital Research, for our latest episode of the Competent Investor. If you’re following the markets like I am, you won’t want to miss this one. Graham dives deep into how the current AI boom is not just reshaping our …