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In step

Reading the news and it sure looks bad: The Ninth Circuit’s rejection of Kalshi’s attempt to prevent Nevada from enforcing its gambling laws has settled one question. Kalshi cannot now offer sports event contracts in Nevada without falling within the state’s regulatory reach.

• The next question, however, is about the ramifications of the ruling.

• Analysts at Truist said the decision could encourage action across all nine states within the Ninth Circuit.

• Federal district courts in those states are now bound by the appellate court’s reasoning, potentially opening the door to further bans on Kalshi and other prediction market sports contracts.

They won’t give peace a chance: California is now the state to watch. So far it has not followed Nevada by ordering Kalshi to stop serving the entire state.

• However, the Ninth Circuit has now supplied binding federal appellate precedent that would make it significantly harder for Kalshi to obtain an injunction preventing California officials from enforcing applicable state gambling laws.

• The ruling does not itself ban Kalshi in California, nor does it compel state authorities to act. California would still need to identify and enforce relevant state laws.

• But the decision potentially changes the risk-reward calculation for any regulator or enforcement agency considering whether to demand that the platform geofence the state.

PCH: Truist said California could “formally ban” sports prediction markets, although it acknowledged uncertainty over how many states within the Ninth Circuit will take action.

• In practice, that would mean California seeking to apply its gambling laws to sports prediction markets, with the Ninth Circuit’s ruling substantially weakening Kalshi’s likely federal-preemption response.

Under western skies: The decision could have more immediate consequences in Arizona, where the state’s dispute with Kalshi is already before the Ninth Circuit. A district court granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction in May, preventing Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against the exchange.

• Nevada’s victory now provides the appellate court with binding reasoning directly adverse to Kalshi’s position.

• Washington has already taken action, while a federal judge in Montana denied Kalshi’s request for preliminary protection on August 28.

• As InGame noted, the decision may encourage other states within the circuit to pursue similar measures.

Swap meet: Last Friday’s judgment turned principally on whether Kalshi’s sports contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act. Kalshi argues that they do and that, because it operates a federally designated contract market (DCM), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction.

• The Ninth Circuit accepted that federal law gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over swaps traded on a DCM. Crucially, however, it found that Kalshi’s sports contracts were not swaps.

• The court said Kalshi “has a gambling problem,” pointing to the company’s own marketing of its product as legal sports betting.

• It also concluded that Kalshi’s expansive interpretation lacked a limiting principle and risked pulling conventional sportsbook wagers into federal derivatives regulation.

• “As Nevada points out, Kalshi’s sports event contracts do not help institutions or investors hedge against risk,” the court said. Instead, “they create risk” for consumers.

The old 40.11(c) eh? The judgment also relied on CFTC Rule 40.11, which currently bars the contracts unless the CFTC uses the review mechanism available under Rule 40.11(c). Although the agency is proposing to revise the rule, the court said proposed regulations have no present legal effect.

• Kalshi emphasized the part of the decision that recognized federal exclusivity over genuine swaps.

• “The Ninth Circuit agreed with the Third Circuit on a fundamental point: federal law prevents states from regulating trading on a federally licensed exchange, like Kalshi,” spokesperson Dani Lever said.

• Kalshi continues to dispute the court’s preliminary injunction analysis and interpretation of the CFTC regulations and has said it will seek “further review.”

• That could initially mean requesting an en banc rehearing before a larger Ninth Circuit panel rather than proceeding immediately to the Supreme Court.

The road to SCOTUS: The ultimate destination, however, increasingly appears to be Washington, DC. The Third Circuit previously sided with Kalshi in its New Jersey case, creating a direct split between federal appellate courts. New Jersey has until September 3 to ask the Supreme Court to review that decision.

• A Supreme Court hearing is not guaranteed. As former CFTC lawyer Carl Kennedy told Front Office Sports, both appellate decisions concern preliminary injunctions rather than final judgments on the merits.

• The justices could therefore wait for a more procedurally developed case.

• That leaves a potentially lengthy period in which states act under sharply different appellate precedents.

• Truist estimates a resolution could remain 10 to 22 months away, potentially extending into summer 2028.

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Canada says no

No Canada: Canadian regulators have drawn a clear distinction between financial event contracts and markets based on sports or entertainment outcomes, closing off a potential securities law route for operators seeking to offer sports prediction products nationally.

• In a joint notice, the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) said sports and entertainment event contracts should not be regulated under securities and derivatives legislation.

• CIRO consequently does not consider it appropriate to facilitate or approve applications from its dealer members to trade such contracts.

No security: The guidance stops short of determining how sports prediction markets should be regulated. However, excluding them from the capital markets framework potentially leaves operators facing provincial gambling laws and regulators rather than gaining market access through investment dealers.

• CSA chair Stan Magidson said investors and market participants must understand that contracts based on sports or entertainment activities “should not be regulated within securities and derivatives legislation.”

• The regulators are continuing to assess event contract categories outside the scope of the notice.

A limited offer: Canada has not rejected prediction markets altogether. CIRO has authorized Interactive Brokers Canada and Wealthbrokers to facilitate trading in a limited selection of event contracts, subject to conditions agreed with the CSA.

• Those permissions cover products relating to economic forecasts, environmental forecasts and financial indicators.

• The regulators warned that these permissions could face further restrictions or changes.

• Anyone trading or facilitating contracts that qualify as securities or derivatives must comply with the relevant legislation.

• Kalshi has permanently banned former US representative George Santos after concluding he likely engaged in insider trading. Santos profited $17,839 by betting he would not attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, while publicly suggesting he planned to attend. Kalshi said he manipulated a market whose outcome he controlled, and imposed a $71,356 fine. Santos dismissed the action as “frivolous nonsense.” It is Kalshi’s first lifetime ban, amid broader scrutiny of prediction-market insider trading practices and enforcement standards.

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• NorthStar Gaming has agreed to pay C$80,000 to settle an Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario penalty concerning one player account between March 2024 and June 2025. The regulator found NorthStar failed to apply enhanced due diligence despite the player’s occupation and deposit activity requiring escalated monitoring. NorthStar accepted responsibility and highlighted subsequent staffing, governance, risk-scoring, player-classification and escalation upgrades, plus an independent compliance review.

• The Netherlands: Dutch online gambling association VNLOK plans to file a European Commission complaint and sue Meta over advertisements for unlicensed operators appearing on Facebook and Instagram. VNLOK alleges Meta is failing to prevent illegal gambling promotion, has been unwilling to cooperate with regulators and is helping drive growth in the Netherlands’ unlicensed market through advertising carried across its social media platforms.

• Belarus plans to ban online advertising for gambling venues, lotteries and electronic interactive games under draft legislation from the Ministry of Antimonopoly Regulation and Trade. The proposal would also outlaw gambling ads on public transport, limit their volume on television and radio, and prohibit images of people or animals and references to betting bonuses. The bill is under government review.

• Mexico seized 3,374 small coin-operated gambling machines across 84 State of Mexico municipalities in July, alleging they generated criminal revenue and exposed minors to gambling risks. Operators’ group UNAMA protested, demanding the equipment’s return and disputing their blanket characterization as criminals. Members say invoices and tax records prove legitimate ownership and may contest the seizures potentially through Mexican courts.

• New York: Democrats have urged Governor Kathy Hochul to intervene over Resorts World New York City’s effective 72% levy on slot revenue. Genting’s casino proposed a 56% tax, but regulators say a separate 16% horse-racing contribution remains mandatory. Lawmakers argue the burden threatens its planned $4bn expansion, jobs and community benefits. The Gaming Commission maintains racing payments are statutory obligations, not taxes, while Resorts World continues discussions with the state government.

Sports integrity

• The PGA Tour has suspended PGA Tour Champions player Matt Gogel for six months after he placed multiple bets on golf events during 2024 and 2025, breaching its integrity program. The Tour said none involved events in which Gogel participated and did not identify the tournaments or wagers. Gogel described them as recreational wagers, saying he unknowingly breached the policy.

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UKGC actions

Red flags: The Gambling Commission has suspended two related operators over suspected social responsibility and anti-money laundering failings, while separate cases against QuinnBet and an AGC operator underline the regulator’s focus on controls that fail in practice.

No saint: The Gambling Commission’s immediate suspension of the operating licences held by BresBet and Bet St George represents a potentially existential intervention for two small, related bookmakers controlled by entrepreneur Nic Brereton.

• Following enquiries, the regulator said it suspected both businesses of social responsibility and anti-money laundering failings.

• It has opened reviews of the licences under section 116 of the Gambling Act 2005, with the suspensions remaining in place until the Commission is satisfied the operators are compliant.

• The Commission has not disclosed the suspected failings or customers involved, and its announcement does not establish that breaches occurred.

• Nevertheless, the decision to suspend both licenses immediately, rather than allow trading to continue during the reviews, indicates that the regulator considers the potential risks sufficiently serious to require urgent action.

• Customers can still access their accounts and withdraw funds. The operators have also been instructed to treat consumers fairly and keep them informed of developments affecting them.

From challenger to challenged: The intervention comes less than six months after Bet St George launched with ambitions to bring a data-led challenger brand to the difficult British market.

• Brereton, who founded BresBet before establishing Bet St George, told iGaming Business in March that the new operator planned to apply lessons from his previous career analyzing medical data.

• “Sometimes what data tells you is uncomfortable because it’s challenging the norm,” he said.

• Brereton argued that player data could help the business make “marginal differences” by testing established assumptions about customer behavior.

Computer says no: The suspensions concern suspected failures in precisely the areas where effective customer data, monitoring and escalation should form part of an operator’s compliance defenses.

• The regulator has not said whether data systems contributed to either case.

• But the reviews will test whether Brereton’s analytical ambitions were matched by sufficiently effective player protection and financial crime controls.

Forgive and forget: At launch, Brereton acknowledged that Bet St George was entering an unforgiving market. “It’s a challenging time for bookmakers in terms of launching,” Brereton admitted to iGB.

• “But we still feel that if you’ve got the right brand, the right cost of service, you’re willing to try and take a bet, there’s still opportunities to have a successful business,” he said.

• The immediate regulatory problem now sidelines those commercial challenges.

Unmighty Quinn: The action follows quickly on two further Commission cases illustrating the consequences of controls that existed on paper but proved ineffective operationally.

• QuinnBet agreed to pay £609,104 after an investigation identified social responsibility and AML failings.

• Among the examples cited, one customer placed approximately 4,800 bets in one day and 7,000 the next without being flagged. Another staked more than £215,000 in a day following a large win, but the activity was not identified until a report was produced the following day.

• The Commission also found that a customer earning approximately £2,000 a month was permitted to deposit and lose £9,000 in four days, while some customers deposited significant sums without their source of funds being established.

Park life: Separately, Holland Park Leisure, which operates three adult gaming centres in Leicester, was fined £150,000 and ordered to undergo a third-party audit.

• Despite being informed that it must participate in a multi-operator self-exclusion scheme, the business did not join until its licence was suspended in October 2025.

Calendar

• Sep 18: A Conversation with State Lawmakers, iDEA webinar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Play through the whistle

Do you know where you’re going to? Prediction markets are moving faster than public understanding, and arguably regulation, with US sports fans expressing unease over their societal impact and uncertainty over who should police them.

• That is one of the central findings from the FGS Scouting Report, based on an online poll of 2,030 US sports fans conducted by RepData between April 29 and May 8.

• The broader study covered sports betting and prediction markets alongside college, women’s and youth sports.

• Across all four areas, the clearest message was that sporting integrity remains non-negotiable: 90% said sports have a responsibility to model fairness.

Do you like the things that life is showing you? That expectation matters as betting becomes more embedded in the sports ecosystem and federally regulated prediction platforms seek to establish sports event contracts as a distinct alternative to state-licensed sportsbooks.

• FGS found that 81% of respondents wanted regulatory measures around sports betting apps and prediction-market platforms.

• But support for guardrails did not translate into agreement over who should provide them.

• Some 26% favored nationwide regulation through a government agency, while 25% preferred regulation at state and local level and 23% backed legislation enacted by Congress.

Toss of a coin: The near-even split leaves no obvious public mandate for either the federal derivatives framework currently used by prediction platforms or the state-based gambling regime defended by regulators and licensed operators.

• FGS said this probably reflected both genuine openness about the appropriate model and limited awareness of the jurisdictional issues.

• The fans surveyed appeared to want somebody to take responsibility, but had yet to decide who that somebody should be.

Mind the gap: Public understanding of what exactly prediction markets are also remains a significant caveat. FGS defined them for respondents as platforms on which people can bet on future events such as election outcomes, economic indicators or sports results, citing Kalshi and Polymarket as examples.

• Even with that explanation, the firm acknowledged respondents may have conflated prediction markets with conventional OSB.

• This is an important limitation when interpreting the results, particularly as the survey grouped sportsbooks and prediction platforms together when asking about regulatory safeguards.

Keep up: FGS did not separately test whether fans expected prediction markets to provide protections such as age verification, self-exclusion, affordability controls or advertising restrictions. Its conclusion was therefore narrower: whatever the products or regulator involved, fans believe guardrails should exist.

• What certainly appears to be the case is that prediction markets are evolving faster than the public’s understanding of them and their mechanics.

• The result is an awareness gap in which fans are forming opinions about the category while still trying to work out what it is.

Uncertainty principles: That doubt does not work in the sector’s favor. Some 43% believed prediction markets would have a negative effect on society, compared with 28% expecting a positive impact. Fewer than half were confident the platforms were properly regulated.

• FGS did not ask respondents to explain the negative response, meaning the results cannot be attributed specifically to problem gambling, sporting integrity, consumer losses or market manipulation.

• However, the wider doubts over regulation suggest at least some of the concern is connected to whether adequate oversight exists.

Comfort food for thought: Current usage was also relatively limited. Thirteen percent said they used a prediction market, while another 13% had signed up but either no longer used the platform or had never used it. FGS did not segment the results to establish whether active users were more trusting of the products or their regulation.

• This leaves an intriguing unanswered question: does familiarity generate confidence, or expose users to risks that make them more cautious?

• “Our research shows that US sports fans are paying attention to the rapid evolution of prediction markets, but their understanding of – and comfort with – them is still developing,” an FGS spokesperson said.

• “Prediction markets are evolving rapidly in the US, raising new questions around trust, regulation and integrity, and while fans clearly want safeguards, there’s little consensus on what those should look like or who should provide them.”

Trust issues: One possible advantage for the sports industry is that fans still trust its institutions more than those attempting to regulate or finance them. Confidence in Congress acting in fans’ best interests stood at 30%, compared with 34% for the Administration and 35% for private equity and outside investors.

• Yet that trust comes with conditions. Fans are scrutinizing off-field decision-making more closely and affordability emerged as the biggest perceived long-term threat to American sports, driven by ticket prices and the cost of attending games.

• The survey would suggest that while fans are not rejecting innovation outright, neither are they prepared to take its fairness for granted.

• They want a referee while remaining deeply unsure who should have hold of the whistle.

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• Pot/kettle: Kalshi has asked the SEC to delay approval of Cboe’s proposed binary options on corporate earnings metrics until regulators clarify the boundary between SEC and CFTC oversight. The contracts would compete with Kalshi’s corporate-event markets, which operate under CFTC supervision. The intervention reverses the industry’s usual dynamic, with incumbent exchanges previously accusing the CFTC of approving prediction contracts too readily. Kalshi is separately seeking CFTC approval for perpetual equity futures that could challenge Cboe’s S&P 500 options franchise, Bloomberg reported.

• Novig has secured a stay in its Massachusetts lawsuit until the state’s Supreme Court rules on Kalshi’s appeal, with officials agreeing not to pursue enforcement meanwhile. The operator and New Mexico have separately requested a pause until August 2027, pending the CFTC’s federal case against the state. Both disputes center on whether the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, preempting state gambling laws.

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• Georgia: The Sports Betting Alliance-backed Win for America has contributed more than $12m to Georgia political committees supporting candidates and campaigns ahead of another expected legalization push in 2027. The super PAC, funded by DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365 and Fanatics, split the Georgia money between Democratic and Republican groups, with nearly all 34 supported primary candidates winning. Georgia remains the largest US state outside California and Texas without legal sports betting, following repeated legislative failures, including a House defeat in March this year.

• Macau police arrested six mainland Chinese suspects over a proxy-betting operation that livestreamed slot play from a Cotai casino to gamblers in mainland China. The group allegedly hid a phone inside a shoebox placed in a modified shopping bag, using it to receive remote betting instructions. Officers seized seven phones, HK$23,000 in cash and HK$67,975 in slot vouchers. One suspect reportedly joined at least five similar operations since 2025.

• Thailand’s Department of Special Investigation has recommended that prosecutors arraign Klatham Party MP Chonnaput Naksua for allegedly organizing illegal online gambling, money laundering, transnational crime and illegal assembly. Chonnaput is suspected of involvement with gambling websites and related overseas offenses. Authorities previously seized around THB160m in assets linked to him and associates.

• The Philippines: PAGCOR estimates half of online gaming sites accessed in the Philippines are illegal and plans to launch an app by year-end directing players to licensed platforms. Chair Alejandro Tengco said illegal competition remains an ongoing challenge for the regulator and law enforcement. The app will help users identify authorised sites offering regulatory safeguards and dispute resolution.

• Altenar has accused Sportradar of trying to “shield itself from US justice and public scrutiny” by seeking confidential arbitration in Switzerland over a multimillion-dollar antitrust dispute. Altenar alleges Sportradar abused its dominant position by denying it access to US sports data before launching competing products. It argues their arbitration agreement excludes the US market and wants the case heard in federal court. Sportradar declined to comment publicly on pending litigation.

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Allwyn UK questions

Questions in the house: Allwyn UK is facing scrutiny over its appointment of Phil Walker as interim CEO of the National Lottery, with MPs questioning whether his gambling-industry record is compatible with stewardship of the public contract.

• Labour MP Dawn Butler and Conservative Iain Duncan Smith have written to the Gambling Commission saying they are “deeply concerned” by the selection.

• Their letter highlights Walker’s former position as William Hill’s UK and Ireland chief and a sanction imposed in 2024 following failings in AML and terrorist-financing controls.

• William Hill had been fined a record £19.2m in 2023. The MPs asked what consideration the regulator gave that history when assessing Walker’s suitability.

State of the nation: They also questioned his non-executive directorship at City Gaming, owner of Game Nation, Britain’s third-largest adult gaming centre chain. Walker joined City Gaming last year.

• The AGC sector has taken some political flak of late after Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged to tighten the permissive licensing regime governing the venues, which he has accused of targeting vulnerable communities.

• Game Nation said he would step back from the role from September 1 for the duration of his interim Allwyn contract.

Allwyn defended the appointment, arguing Walker brings valuable operational, digital and marketing expertise and market knowledge.

• It also noted that the 2024 sanction did not cost him his personal Gambling Commission licence, indicating that he remained considered fit and proper to work in the sector.

• Walker replaces Andria Vidler and may not receive the job permanently.

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NSW machine rules

If the face fits: New South Wales will require facial-recognition technology at the entrances to every gaming room in pubs and clubs with poker machines from 2028, as part of a reform package centred on a statewide gambling-exclusion register.

• The register will replace venue-by-venue arrangements and allow people to exclude themselves from approximately 2,100 pubs and clubs operating around 87,000 machines.

• Cameras at gaming-room entrances will alert staff when a registered person attempts to enter.

You’re barred: Gaming and Racing Minister David Harris said the current system allows somebody barred from one property to simply “go down the road to a different venue.” Under the new regime, an exclusion will apply across every participating venue in NSW.

• The framework will also permit third-party exclusion applications, including from family members, although affected gamblers will have the right to appeal.

• Liquor & Gaming NSW introduced a voluntary facial-recognition code in March covering privacy, data handling, security and staff responses, intended to prepare venues for the mandatory requirements.

The full suite: Alongside the 2028 rollout, the government plans to upgrade its centralized monitoring system during the next two years to support account-based gaming. Individual venues will decide whether to offer account-based play, while customers will retain the option of using cash.

• Further measures include abolishing gaming-linked VIP schemes, restricting unsolicited direct marketing, reducing the number of gaming-machine entitlements and prohibiting gambling advertising on assets owned by the NSW government and local councils.

• The package significantly expands the role of technology in enforcing player protection measures across the state’s club and pub gaming estate.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Carnival barking

I hate you so much right now: “I have more people in my regulatory department than you and your entire company,” CME Group CEO Terry Duffy told Kalshi co-founder and COO Luana Lopes Lara during the inaugural meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee.

• “Maybe you should learn a bit about efficiency then,” Lopes Lara replied.

• “Maybe you should learn about credible markets,” Duffy shot back.

Young guns go for it: The exchange between the two appeared to pitch the ‘old guard’ of financial trading, Duffy, against the Young Turks of prediction markets, Kalshi, in the form of Lopes Lara.

• But perhaps more disconcerting for the former was that the supposedly neutral CFTC, as represented by chair Michael Selig, appeared to take sides in the debate.

• After Duffy cited two recent cases of alleged PM insider trading – the Maduro kidnap and Trump teleprompter instances – Selig resorted to the Trumpian charge that they were “fake news.”

• “Fake news? OK, that’s a cute comment,” Duffy responded.

The funhouse: The verbal jousting highlighted more than just a personality clash. Duffy’s point is that prediction platforms are listing contracts susceptible to manipulation while benefiting from a self-certification process that allows products to reach the market without prior CFTC approval.

• Around 2,500 contracts have reportedly been self-certified since 2025 without the regulator objecting.

• “There are definitely people that are manipulating these contracts,” Duffy said. “That is not good for our industry. That is horrible for our industry.”

• “By listing susceptible markets to manipulation, [it] is really doing the opposite of what we’re trying to effectuate,” Duffy said. “We’re not a bunch of carnival barkers at a circus.”

Cheap trick: Selig’s argument was confused. Despite the Trump teleprompter incident occurring after Kalshi reported its suspicions, he insisted both incidents occurred with offshore operators.

• But Duffy’s point still stands and is worthy of more consideration than Selig’s cheap dig.

• Moreover, as C+M discussed earlier this month, the CFTC itself is examining whether markets based on the words spoken by politicians, executives and broadcasters are inherently vulnerable to manipulation.

Shayne from accounts: During last week’s meeting, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said he had “mixed feelings” about such markets. While they could be entertaining, some were “very prone to manipulation,” he added.

• But Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said blockchain records provided the trading history of every participant and “a level of transparency that’s unprecedented.”

• “No one I think is here saying, hey, ‘We don’t want to be held accountable for mistakes or missteps,’” Coplan added.

All ears: Selig himself also acknowledged the need for stronger protections. He said the CFTC had heard concerns about inadequate safeguards for retail customers “loud and clear” and expected the agency to propose amendments governing how designated contract markets list event contracts, alongside additional consumer protection standards.

• But that commitment sits awkwardly beside his dismissal of Duffy’s intervention.

• Given the backdrop of legal fights with various states, the CFTC’s credibility in those battles depends upon demonstrating that federal oversight offers substantive protection rather than merely a faster route to market.

Perpetual motion: The CME operates event contracts itself and is competing with Kalshi and other entrants. It is also fighting the CFTC over the regulator’s treatment of perpetual futures. Duffy’s complaints therefore contain an evident competitive dimension.

• But the disagreement on the issue of compliance is not, as it might appear, simply an argument between the ‘old’ finance sector and an innovative predictions sector.

• Rather, it is about whether exchanges should merely catch questionable trading after it happens or decline to list contracts whose design creates an obvious opportunity for abuse.

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Danish blockade

Closing borders: Denmark has added Polymarket to Europe’s expanding prediction market exclusion zone after a court authorized the Danish Gambling Authority to block the platform alongside 97 other unlicensed gambling websites.

• The Frederiksberg Court ruled on July 8 that the sites were illegally offering gambling to Danish consumers, allowing internet service providers to implement DNS blocks.

• Visitors are instead directed to a page explaining that the site is considered illegal.

• The latest action takes the number of domains blocked at the regulator’s request since 2012 to 870.

Sad face emoji: Polymarket said it was “disappointed” at the news because it believes its prediction markets are “an important innovation in the financial digital market.”

• “We intend to have the decision tried through a legal process in Denmark,” the company added in a statement. “Polymarket has no position in any market and does not profit from any outcome.”

Rules of the game: But the innovation that Polymarket claims to be bringing to the financial markets was dismissed by Denmark’s minister for taxation and economic growth, Jakob Engel-Schmidt, who welcomed the regulator’s decision and took aim at Polymarket’s contracts involving conflict and death.

• “We’re talking about people losing their lives,” he said. “About families losing their loved ones. About wars that destroy entire societies. And then someone sits there and says, ‘What if we could bet on when it happens?’ It’s crazy.”

• “A human life is not a lottery ticket.”

Fortress Europe: The Danish order places another brick in the regulatory wall being built around prediction markets in Europe.

• Polymarket has already faced blocking or enforcement measures in France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Hungary, Belgium and Poland, while Spain temporarily restricted both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Battle lines being drawn: The Danish action also reinforces the position expressed in July by nine European gambling regulators: whatever financial market framing prediction platforms adopt, national authorities increasingly view contracts on political, sporting and geopolitical events as gambling products requiring local authorization.

• Denmark has now moved beyond warnings and into court-backed enforcement.

• It is the latest indication that Europe’s supposedly blurred regulatory line is becoming distinctly sharper.

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• Nevada’s attorney general has argued Kalshi’s acceptance of North Carolina’s 6% tax on prediction market trading revenue undermines its claim that federal oversight preempts state regulation. In a Ninth Circuit filing, Nevada said the tax demonstrated states can regulate Kalshi’s operations, including through taxation. North Carolina’s law, effective January 1, recognizes CFTC oversight and allows federally regulated exchanges to operate without state gaming licenses.

• Polymarket referred dozens of accounts suspected of using nonpublic military information to the US Department of Justice, CNN reported, citing a senior company official. The referrals predated research identifying more than 150 wallets that may have traded on military secrets, collectively earning $8m with a 97.2% win rate. Polymarket said blockchain transparency enabled suspicious activity to be detected, but the findings will intensify scrutiny of war-related contracts and calls for stronger identity checks and trading restrictions in the US and beyond.

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Uruguay opening

Now’s the time: Uruguay’s private casino operators have submitted a proposal to the government that would regulate online gambling while reserving licenses for companies already authorized to operate land-based venues in the country.

• The Uruguayan Chamber of Operators and Lessors of Casino and Entertainment Hall Services (CUOASEC) said the framework would require state authorization for all online gambling and place licensed operators under regulatory supervision.

• Its proposed channelization measures include blocking unauthorized websites, establishing a dedicated .bet.uy domain for approved operators and creating a National User Registry.

• The proposal would also introduce requirements covering transaction traceability, personal-data protection, cybersecurity and AML controls.

• Player protection provisions would include self-exclusion mechanisms and measures intended to prevent gambling addiction, backed by a specific sanctions regime.

Playing catch up: CUOASEC argued that unlicensed gambling facilitates tax evasion, subjects regulated land-based operators to unfair competition and leaves consumers without adequate guarantees of transparency.

• Executive secretary Luis Gama has also said online casino gaming is “gradually taking over from physical games,” explaining the sector’s desire to participate in any regulated digital market.

• However, the plan envisages a restricted model rather than an open licensing system.

• Eligibility would be tied to an existing land-based authorization, potentially benefiting CUOASEC members, including Codere, operator of Maroñas, and Baluma, which owns Enjoy Punta del Este.

• The chamber said its constituent companies have invested more than $600m and support nearly 20,000 jobs, although those figures have not been independently verified.

The details: Important details remain unresolved. CUOASEC has not disclosed when the proposal was submitted or provided a timetable for government consideration.

• Licensing criteria, taxation, the precise role of land-based casinos and the allocation of online gambling proceeds would all be determined later.

• The submission is therefore an industry proposal rather than an agreed government bill or settled regulatory framework.

No certainties: Uruguay currently maintains a state monopoly over online gambling. Supermatch is the only authorized OSB operation, while private companies cannot legally offer online casino games.

• The country has previously attempted reform: legislation allowing land-based casino operators to offer online gaming passed the Senate in August 2022 but remains pending in the Chamber of Deputies.

• The latest initiative returns the issue to the executive branch, with no indication yet of whether it will adopt CUOASEC’s land-based only model.

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• Nebraska: Voters will get to decide in November whether to legalize OSB after the Secretary of State approved referendum petitions submitted by DraftKings- and Flutter-backed Tax Relief Nebraska, despite reports of invalid signatures. If passed, racetracks could apply through the state’s Racing and Gaming Commission, with each track permitted two operating partners.

• Gold barred: The investigation into former Arizona Cardinals executive Ryan Gold has expanded to Massachusetts, where regulators are examining unusual betting patterns following an Arizona probe. The NFL suspended Gold indefinitely for allegedly leaking the team’s plan to select Jeremiyah Love third in the 2026 draft and placing football parlays. Gold denies wrongdoing and has an appeal hearing scheduled for September 23.

• Ireland’s first national AML strategy will tighten oversight of gambling and crypto-assets through a 30-point program targeting financial crime. Gambling operators will face stronger supervision, while winnings must be returned through a closed-loop system to the same account used for deposits. Private members’ gambling clubs will also require licenses and regulatory oversight. The strategy additionally proposes stronger supervisory enforcement powers, including fines, improved intelligence sharing and a national taskforce addressing terrorist financing and sanctions evasion nationwide.

• Teenage riot: Crown Sydney and The Star Sydney were fined a combined A2.25m ($1.6m) after a 16-year-old repeatedly gained access to their gaming floors using a counterfeit driving license. Crown was fined A$1.75m after the teenager entered the casino 16 times, while The Star was fined A$500,000 for three entries. NSW regulators called the breaches significant failures in identity controls. The minor will be banned from both casinos for five years from turning 18 under a regulatory exclusion order.

• Australia: Staying with Australia, the country’s BetStop national self-exclusion register has recorded 67,480 registrations since launching three years ago, according to the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA). At July 31, 41,290 exclusions remained active, representing more than 60% of registrations. Some 78% of registrants were under 40, while 38% opted for lifetime exclusion. Following an independent review, ACMA established a taskforce to improve awareness, user experience and support pathways, while strengthening the system’s overall operation across licensed online and telephone wagering providers throughout the country.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

Learn more at www.yaspa.com

Wiser heads

Wise after the event: According to Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global team, collective intelligence depends on three conditions: diversity of thinking, an effective method of aggregating information and incentives that reward participants for being right.

• Prediction markets generally satisfy these conditions, producing prices that can be more accurate than polls or individual experts.

• Under these conditions, the MS team found that attempted price manipulation is rarely durable.

Self-correcting mechanism; Traders seeking to force an election contract artificially higher or lower may move it temporarily. But other participants have an incentive to exploit the mispricing and push it back towards its proper level.

• “Overall, the research suggests that manipulation can move prices temporarily but the effect eventually wanes,” the report said.

• “Diversity breakdowns are difficult to sustain because the contracts are settled in a timely fashion.”

Islands in the stream: The findings offer reassurance about the resilience of the trading mechanism. But that does not resolve the more troubling question of what happens when someone attempts to manipulate the event determining the contract.

• The report cited two recent examples. One trader appeared to interfere with a weather station at Charles de Gaulle Airport in an effort to win a Polymarket contract on the temperature in Paris.

• Other participants apparently manipulated Spotify streams to influence a contract concerning the platform’s most-played song.

• “The prospect of making money also encourages the manipulation of outcomes,” the authors warned, adding that these incidents, “along with the manipulation of outcomes in sports, will be difficult to manage.”

• The issue is that a liquid market may be able to correct an irrational price, but it cannot correct a compromised weather reading, manufactured streaming total or manipulated sporting event once that result becomes the settlement source.

Weak as I am: The findings expose a potential weakness in the division of regulatory responsibilities. The CFTC oversees event contracts offered by DCMs while sports betting remains primarily the responsibility of state gaming commissions.

• Those state regimes commonly regulate permitted wager types, geolocation, minimum ages, advertising, responsible gambling, taxation and integrity monitoring.

• But a federally regulated prediction exchange offering a functionally similar sports contract currently sits outside much of that infrastructure.

• “The challenge is that the products they offer are starting to overlap, calling into question regulatory boundaries,” Morgan Stanley said.

To the winner, the spoils: The Morgan Stanley paper also raises questions about whether prediction market users should be viewed solely as financially sophisticated traders. The team pointed out that prediction markets are zero-sum: the benefits of their collective accuracy are not shared evenly among participants.

• A study cited by Morgan Stanley examined almost 600 million Polymarket trades between November 2022 and March 2026.

• It found that 69% of the platform’s 2.4 million users lost money. Among profitable customers, the top 1% captured 77% of gains and the top 10% took 96%.

• “The profits remain highly concentrated among a few bettors, and a large majority lose money when they wager,” the report concluded.

Net of safety: That is not proof of consumer harm: informed and sophisticated traders would be expected to outperform less-skilled participants. But it complicates the argument that the activity should be understood principally as collective forecasting.

• If most retail customers lose while a small number of professional or highly informed traders extract most of the value, then suitability, disclosures, customer segmentation and responsible gambling safeguards become legitimate compliance questions.

This thing is bigger than the both of us: Morgan Stanley did not prescribe a new regulatory settlement. It did, though, make clear that the existing boundaries are unstable, describing a “hodgepodge of regulatory oversight” and legal battles and warning that the position could change rapidly.

• The wisdom-of-crowds defense, therefore, cuts both ways. Prediction markets can be valuable forecasting tools precisely because their prices aggregate information efficiently.

• But preserving that value requires confidence in the participants, the trading process and, crucially, the integrity of the event being measured.

• The crowd may be capable of policing a bad price. It cannot necessarily police the world outside the exchange.

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+More

• Denmark: The financial regulator has temporarily prohibited payments company Inpay from onboarding new online gaming customers after identifying serious anti-money laundering failings. The restriction follows a March inspection that uncovered significant weaknesses in the company’s customer due diligence and transaction-monitoring controls. The regulator’s intervention prevents Inpay from adding gaming clients while the compliance shortcomings remain unresolved and remediation work is undertaken.

• Simpler times: Virginia lawmakers will revisit a proposed sweepstakes ban in the 2027 legislative session after advancing an online gambling package this year. The measure would classify unlicensed sweepstakes casinos as illegal internet gaming, while authorizing regulated iCasino’s through the state’s existing land-based operators. However, a reenactment clause means the legislation must pass the General Assembly again next year before taking effect. If approved, the framework would also delay Virginia’s regulated iCasino launch until 2028 and restrict market access to licensed providers.

• Meanwhile, Florida AG James Uthmeier has filed two lawsuits targeting online sweepstakes casinos, naming Stake, VGW, LuckyLand, Global Poker and associated payment processors. Uthmeier alleges the platforms are illegal, unlicensed online casinos operating under the guise of sweepstakes and social gaming. The lawsuits argue that their dual-currency systems conceal what amounts to real-money gambling from consumers and state regulators.

• Head of Compliance – Limassol

• Head of Tax – Remote in North America

• Regulatory Compliance Officer – Limassol

Australia’s halfway house

Not the full ticket: Australia’s long-delayed gambling reforms will impose meaningful restrictions on advertising and inducements, but the Labor-Coalition compromise stops far short of the blanket ban recommended by the landmark Murphy inquiry.

• Australia’s federal government is poised to secure passage of its long-awaited gambling reforms after agreeing further concessions with the Liberal-National Coalition.

• But harm-prevention advocates have condemned the resulting package as an inadequate substitute for comprehensive advertising restrictions.

That’s your lot: The legislation limits television and radio broadcasters to three gambling adverts an hour between 5am and 8.30pm. Advertising around live sport will be prohibited from 15 minutes before play begins until five minutes afterwards, with equivalent rules for streaming services.

• Gambling promotions will also be banned during children’s programming, on player jerseys and inside stadiums, while athletes and celebrities cannot front campaigns.

• Online advertising will operate under a ‘triple lock’: recipients must be adults, logged into an account and able to opt out.

Stop! A separate national register, dubbed AdStop, is intended to let consumers block gambling advertising across online platforms. However, its design remains unresolved and government sources reportedly expect implementation to take up to 12 months.

• Publishers would apparently need to check prospective recipients against the register, raising questions around privacy, cost and technical feasibility.

• Operators will fund the system through an industry levy.

The amendments also target inducements. Operators must withhold offers from new customers for 14 days, anyone leaving the BetStop self-exclusion register for three months and customers displaying prescribed indicators of gambling harm.

• Wagering employees and affiliates will be prohibited from receiving commissions linked to customer losses.

• The Australian Communications and Media Authority will enforce the measures, with the detailed “red flag” criteria left to subsequent regulation.

• ABC reported that spending, frequency and other betting patterns could determine which customers are flagged.

Marking your own homework: The reliance upon operators has attracted particular criticism. Liberal MP Andrew Wallace, one of two Coalition members to vote against the bill, compared letting bookmakers identify their own vulnerable customers to putting “Dracula in charge of a blood bank”.

• The larger objection is that Labor has not implemented the central recommendations of the 2023 parliamentary inquiry chaired by the late Peta Murphy.

• Those included phased prohibitions on all wagering advertising and inducements.

• Independent senator David Pocock called the cross-party agreement a “betrayal”, while Murphy’s husband, Rod Glover, said it fell “well short” and reflected the lobbying power of wagering companies, sports and media groups.

• But Kai Cantwell, CEO of the industry lobby group Responsible Wagering Australia, argued the restrictions risk driving customers towards offshore operators and warned that much would depend upon the implementing regulations.

GuardDog, powered by Underdog, is a pioneering investment fund dedicated to fostering innovation in responsible gaming.

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Polymarket’s South Korea ban

No parallel: South Korea is to block access to Polymarket after the Korea Media and Communications Commission classified the prediction market platform as a gambling service. ISPs will implement the restriction, although reports did not specify when it will take effect.

• The commission reached its decision after consulting the Korean National Police Agency, National Gambling Control Commission and Korea Sports Promotion Foundation.

• It concluded that Polymarket facilitated gambling and the establishment of a gambling venue under criminal law, while breaching the National Sports Promotion Act.

• The regulator said the platform’s winner-take-all structure, covering events including politics, sport, elections and weather, encouraged gambling behaviour.

But, but, but: Polymarket opposed the block, arguing that it was not subject to South Korea’s communications legislation. It cited the removal of Korean-language services, its inability to accept payments in Korean won and its use of non-custodial P2P transactions and blockchain smart contracts.

• The commission rejected those arguments, stating that technical features or the absence of Korean-language services could not place a company outside South Korean law.

• It also pointed to local contracts, including a market on Seoul rainfall in August, as evidence supporting intervention.

• The ruling adds South Korea to the jurisdictions restricting access to the platform on gambling law grounds.

• Novig has sought a preliminary injunction against Wisconsin, the fifth state where it has launched preventive legal action to protect its prediction-market platform. The operator has also sued New York, Massachusetts, New Mexico and Washington in federal courts in recent weeks. Wisconsin’s enforcement against other prediction-market operators prompted the filing. As in its other cases, Novig argues its contracts fall exclusively under Commodity Futures Trading Commission jurisdiction and that federal commodities law pre-empts state gaming regulations directly targeting prediction markets.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Say nothing

You say it best: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is examining whether prediction markets based on the words spoken by politicians, executives and broadcasters are inherently vulnerable to manipulation, prompting Kalshi to suspend all sports-related mention markets until further notice.

• The inquiry represents a significant test of the self-certification regime that has enabled prediction-market exchanges to launch event contracts without obtaining prior CFTC approval.

• Under that process, an exchange must determine that a contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act, including its prohibition on markets that are “readily susceptible to manipulation.”

• According to NPR, concern is growing inside the CFTC, and among Kalshi’s own lawyers, that some mention markets may fail that test.

When you say nothing at all: These contracts allow users to trade on whether a specified person will say a particular word or phrase during an event. Sports markets have included whether commentators will use terms such as ‘MVP”’, ‘ankle’ or ‘redshirt’, while other contracts cover political speeches, television news broadcasts and company earnings calls.

• The category has become an important attempt by Kalshi to attract customers beyond conventional sports events.

• Kalshi has removed sports mention contracts while the regulator conducts its review, although markets covering political events, earnings calls and television news remain available. It is unclear whether the sports products will return.

• Neither Kalshi nor the CFTC commented publicly, while one person familiar with the regulator’s deliberations told NPR the contracts were “potentially very easy to manipulate” and said officials were examining whether some of them “make sense”.

Careless whisper: The intervention follows the alleged exploitation of Kalshi’s political mention markets by Gabriel Perez, Donald Trump’s teleprompter operator. Perez reportedly used advance knowledge of presidential speeches to trade on words Trump would or would not say.

• Kalshi said its surveillance systems identified suspiciously well-timed transactions, froze more than $90,000 of profits and referred the matter to the CFTC.

• Perez subsequently left government employment.

Mouth to mouth: That case illustrated the unusually direct relationship between inside information and the outcome of a mention contract. Someone with access to a speech, broadcast script or corporate presentation may know the result before the public.

• More seriously, a speaker, producer or person controlling a teleprompter could potentially determine the outcome merely by inserting, removing or deliberately saying a word.

• Unlike many sports contracts, the underlying event need not be independently contested: one participant can sometimes settle the market through a single action.

Whisper my name: The CFTC has already made clear that federal commodities law applies to misconduct on prediction markets. An enforcement advisory issued in February cited cases involving a political candidate trading on his own candidacy and a YouTube editor using likely advance knowledge of forthcoming videos.

• It said the Commission could pursue misappropriation of confidential information, fraudulent schemes, wash trading and other disruptive practices on designated contract markets.

• The mention market review goes further by asking whether enforcement after suspicious trading occurs can adequately address contracts whose structure creates the opportunity for abuse.

Pitt bull: Market resolution creates a separate risk. During Fox’s World Cup final coverage, a commentator mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt. Some news organisations subsequently reported that Pitt had attended, and because they were designated sources for settlement, Kalshi resolved the contract according to its rules as if Pitt had been present.

• Traders who backed the correct real-world outcome – that Pitt was absent – collectively lost $287,866.

• The episode demonstrated how mention and appearance markets can settle according to an erroneous broadcast statement rather than the underlying reality.

It ain’t what you say, it’s the way that you say it: The CFTC’s scrutiny also exposes tension in Kalshi’s expansion strategy. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara has reportedly championed mention markets as a means of reducing the platform’s dependence on sports.

• But removing sports mentions does not eliminate the regulatory question.

• Political speeches and earnings calls may present even clearer opportunities for people with privileged access to scripts or prepared remarks.

Say it like you mean it: The immediate issue is whether the CFTC requires stronger surveillance, trader restrictions and settlement safeguards or concludes that particular mention contracts cannot be made compliant.

• A broad adverse finding would also challenge the industry’s reliance on self-certification: exchanges may be able to detect suspicious trades.

• But detection does not cure a contract that was structurally manipulable from the start.

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Rogan joshes: Joe Rogan has criticised Trump Media & Technology Group’s plan to sell traders early access to President Donald Trump’s potentially market-moving Truth Social posts, questioning both its legality and ethics.

• Reacting during an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience, the influential podcaster expressed disbelief that subscribers to the proposed Truth API could receive Trump’s posts before public release and potentially trade on the information.

• “How is that legal?” he asked, later describing the initiative as “literally crazy”.

Rotting apples: Trump Media has said access could cost as much as $100,000 a month, or $1.2m annually. The service is being marketed partly on the ability of traders to respond quickly to Trump’s comments about companies, markets and international affairs.

• Trump retains a stake in the company worth approximately $1bn, reportedly overseen by Donald Trump Jr.

• Two media organisations have already sued the Trump-linked business, describing the proposal as “extraordinary, corrupt, and unconstitutional”.

• Rogan, previously a prominent supporter of Trump and the MAGA movement, said the initiative appeared to be “a grab”.

• However, Rogan stopped short of blaming Trump directly, suggesting the idea might instead have originated with an adviser.

• Betterment’s 2026 Retail Investor Survey suggests younger investors are treating wagering products as part of their financial lives, intensifying concerns over the boundary between investment and gambling. Among Gen Z investors, 26% said sports betting formed a deliberate part of their long-term financial strategy, while 52% had redirected money originally intended for investing towards betting during the previous year. Betterment CEO Sarah Levy explicitly included prediction markets in her warning, saying the industry must distinguish participation in a trend from building lasting wealth.

• Debanking crisis: JPMorgan terminated its banking relationship with Polymarket in October 2025 over regulatory concerns, when the prediction market platform was still barred from serving US customers. According to the FT, Polymarket has since found another lender, but says it retains a close relationship with JPMorgan across other entities and customer-fund flows. The bank also reportedly remains interested in a future IPO mandate, as Polymarket seeks more than $1bn at a $20bn valuation.

Kalshi’s fencing issues

Falling through the cracks: Kalshi’s Michigan geofence blocked sports contracts only after users installed an optional app update, leaving customers using older versions able to trade despite an August 12 implementation deadline.

• InGame said its reporter was able to place sports trades from Michigan through an account registered to an Indiana address.

• After the app was updated, GeoComply’s technology activated and blocked sports trading within Michigan, including MVP award contracts and parlays.

• Politics, economics and popular-culture markets remained available, reflecting the narrower scope of Michigan’s court order.

• The restriction remained effective at the state border, while sports trading resumed once the reporter left Michigan.

Kalshi had initially relied on addresses supplied during registration to exclude Michigan residents. That approach could not prevent customers registered elsewhere from trading while present in the state.

• According to InGame, the app gave users no indication that an update was needed. Kalshi did not respond to its request for comment.

Hole wide world: A Michigan court temporarily barred Kalshi from offering sports contracts last month and required the platform to deploy a state-approved geolocation provider by August 12.

• Kalshi is also implementing third-party geofencing in Nevada after regulators challenged the effectiveness of its earlier IP-based system and sought to have the company held in contempt.

• However, last week Nevada’s Gaming Control Board asked a Carson City court to fine Kalshi $120,000 daily for allegedly missing an August 12 geofencing deadline.

• Regulators said investigators using older versions of Kalshi’s app could still purchase prohibited sports, election and entertainment contracts from Nevada.

• Kalshi said investigators misrepresented their residence and circumvented restrictions, while its general counsel called the action vindictive.

It’s a Wash: In separate news, Kalshi must stop offering sports and several other event contract markets in Washington under an expanded King County Superior Court order. The restrictions cover contracts linked to elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, science and mentions, while also prohibiting Kalshi advertising in the state.

• The platform must introduce initial geofencing by August 19 and a more comprehensive system by September 2.

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• Brazil: A new study estimates illegal operators accounted for between 38%-44% of Brazil’s online betting market in H126, down from between 41%-51% in the previous survey. Commissioned by IBJR and based on Instituto Locomotiva data, the research attributed the improvement to regulation and enforcement helping bettors distinguish licensed brands. IBJR urged tougher action against clandestine operators and regulatory certainty for licensees to sustain the progress.

• Pixbet: Staying with Brazil, the ministry of finance has suspended Pixbet’s operations, ordering it to cancel outstanding bets and return customer funds. The SPA cited failures to provide required information and comply with monitoring rules, including safeguards for compulsive gamblers. Pixbet faces a BRL200,000 daily fine for non-compliance and may resume only after proving compliance, although state-licensed operations can continue in Rio de Janeiro and Paraná.

• Betty Gaming has accepted a C$120,000 penalty from the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario after weaknesses in its age-verification and eligibility controls enabled underage gambling. Nine people under 19 created accounts, deposited and gambled, while another 14 opened accounts without depositing. Betty identified and reported the vulnerability in November 2025, closed the affected accounts and introduced additional safeguards.

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Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

Subscribe now

⚽ Ready to reinvent player protection? 🌍

Mindway AI introduces Gamalyze Sports—our next-generation, gamified responsible gambling solution designed specifically for sports bettors.

Forget boring, static questionnaires that players ignore. Mindway AI turns player protection into an interactive football game, over a decade of research of neuroscience and behavioural research to analyse real-time decision-making on the pitch. By replacing retroactive surveys with active gameplay, it delivers an unbiased, highly engaging experience that builds genuine self-awareness for players, while giving operators deep behavioural insights straight to their dashboard.

Localised in 14 languages, it’s the ultimate way to safeguard fans this summer.

👉 Click here to try the Mindway AI Gamalyze Sports demo now!

An +More Media publication.

For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.

Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

Learn more at www.yaspa.com

Dawn chorus: Anti-gambling campaigning Dawn Butler, Labour MP Brent East, believes the campaign to give communities greater control over gambling premises has been won, writing in the Guardian this week that the government’s promise to scrap aim to permit represented a “huge victory” following years of campaigning.

• It is, however, a victory over government policy rather than the law as it currently stands.

• Before councils receive the powers Butler wants them to exercise, ministers must consult on the proposals, decide precisely how the licensing regime should change and secure the necessary legislation.

Smokescreen: The government is planning a six-week consultation and has said it wants its high street measures in place from the beginning of 2027. But that timetable may be more readily achievable for the planning changes affecting vape shops than for the removal of “aim to permit.”

• The latter is contained in section 153 of the Gambling Act 2005.

• It requires licensing authorities to aim to permit gambling premises where their operation accords with Gambling Commission codes and guidance, is reasonably consistent with the licensing objectives and complies with the authority’s own licensing policy.

Words matter: Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus Partners, said removing the principle would consequently require section 153 to be redrafted. Simply deleting the words would not resolve the question of what test councils should apply instead.

• “It cannot simply be removed. It will have to be replaced with something and we don’t know what,” he said. “I am guessing it will also require parliamentary time.”

• That replacement will determine the practical significance of the reform.

• A new test could give authorities greater scope to consider the concentration or perceived social effects of gambling premises.

• But the extent of that discretion – and the evidence councils would need to justify refusals – will depend on the eventual wording.

You have the power: Waugh also disputed the suggestion that authorities are currently powerless. He cited recent refusals in Sheffield and Haringey and told C+M that, according to Hansard, 85 planning applications had been refused, with 26 of those decisions upheld on appeal.

• In his view, aim to permit protects lawful businesses and minority interests from decisions based principally on councillors’ personal objections to gambling.

• It requires authorities to permit a legal activity when an application satisfies the relevant regulatory tests, rather than allowing applications to be rejected because gambling itself is unpopular.

Reclaim the streets: Butler’s Guardian article presented the principle differently, arguing it had left councils working against a presumption in favor of gambling premises and allowed the industry to expand “largely unchecked.”

• She urged residents to “use these new powers” to reclaim their high streets, although those powers have so far only been announced.

• Her argument also combines betting shops, casinos and AGCs within a wider narrative about the proliferation of gambling venues.

• That obscures an important distinction. AGCs have actually declined slightly in the last 10 years while the number of betting shops has fallen from almost 9,000 in 2015 to fewer than 5,900.

• Indeed, on the Evoke earnings call yesterday, the company noted how its William Hill estate had fallen to 1,024 shops versus 1,302 a year earlier.

Andrew Lyman, Gibraltar’s Gambling Commissioner and a former director of regulatory affairs at William Hill, described the announcement on LinkedIn as a political “deflection” that ignored the substantial decline in betting shop numbers.

• He noted that bookmakers had argued against the removal of the previous demand test during the development of the 2005 Act.

• That liberalization, he suggested, contributed to the subsequent race for betting shop locations before commercial and regulatory pressures drove numbers down again.

Regeneration X: Lyman also questioned whether restricting lawful premises would regenerate high streets. Councils can prevent particular developments, he said, but replacing closed businesses ultimately depends on private investment and consumer demand.

• Betting shops are already subject to the same pressures from online commerce, business rates and changing consumer habits affecting other retail operators.

Welcome to the jungle: The task of potentially revisiting the Gambling Act and getting any legislation through parliament will fall to the newly-announced minister with responsibility for gambling, Vicki Foxcroft.

• Here appointment was announced this week and was welcomed by the Betting & Gaming Council which noted her “support for regulation that is properly targeted and fit for purpose.”

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• Colorado will introduce tighter sports betting advertising rules on Wednesday, banning promotional push notifications and terms including ‘bonus bet’ and ‘no sweat’. Operators will also be prohibited from advertising on platforms whose audiences are predominantly under 21, accepting credit card-funded deposits or restricting successful bettors. The legislation, approved by Gov. Jared Polis, limits players to six deposit-limit changes per 24-hour period.

• Kenya: The High Court has lifted a temporary suspension of recently approved gaming reforms, allowing the Gambling Regulatory Authority to resume operations while a legal challenge proceeds. The new licensing fee structure remains paused pending the case’s outcome. Claimants argue the fees are substantially higher than those proposed during public consultation on the Gambling Control Regulations. A first hearing is scheduled for September 21.

• The ASA has upheld 125 complaints against five Midnite betting and casino ads that depicted a succession of frustrating technology failures before promoting the operator’s app. The watchdog ruled that the juxtaposition suggested gambling could provide relief from stress or serve as a coping mechanism, encouraging socially irresponsible behaviour capable of causing financial, social or emotional harm. Midnite argued the campaign promoted its app’s reliability.

Commercial

• GamScore and Mindway AI have partnered to combine player-controlled financial health monitoring with automated gambling-risk detection. The integration will bring GamScore’s privacy-focused platform, which allows bettors to track and demonstrate their betting health, together with Mindway AI’s neuroscience-backed behavioural profiling tools, GameScanner and Gamalyze. The companies said the combined approach would give operators a more complete view of player wellbeing while enabling customers to retain greater control over their data. GamScore and Mindway AI also plan to develop joint educational materials and integrated operational workflows.

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CFTC’s crisis order

Is this an emergency? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered Kalshi to continue serving customers in New York, invoking emergency powers as the prediction-market operator faces an attempt by the state to halt its activities under gambling law.

• The intervention escalates the jurisdictional conflict between the federal derivatives regulator and state authorities over sports event contracts.

• The CFTC said it has “exclusive jurisdiction” over federally registered entities such as Kalshi, including their contracts linked to sports, elections and other events.

Iron curtain: Chair Michael Selig accused New York of seeking to make event-contract derivatives “waste away under its iron curtain of state gaming laws” before courts could reach final decisions on their legality.

Conflict escalation: New York AG Letitia James filed a complaint on July 31 asking the state Supreme Court to grant a temporary restraining order against Kalshi. The state alleges that the exchange is violating its gambling laws.

• Kalshi subsequently declared a market emergency, prompting the CFTC to intervene and direct the company to remain operational.

• The order represents the CFTC’s latest attempt to establish federal primacy over prediction markets as state regulators challenge Kalshi and rival platforms.

• Several states have accused the exchanges of offering unlicensed sports betting, while the CFTC has joined litigation to argue that federally regulated derivatives platforms are not subject to state gambling regimes.

Deep, deep down: Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told Bloomberg national exchanges depend on deep, nationwide liquidity.

• She compared a potential New York shutdown to Nasdaq being barred from operating in the state, arguing that fragmented access would reduce liquidity, increase prices and make trading more difficult across the country.

• Kalshi contends that these network effects explain why financial markets are regulated federally.

It’s the Feds: The CFTC’s action does not resolve the underlying lawsuit. Instead, it ensures Kalshi remains available in New York while the courts consider whether federal commodities law pre-empts the state’s gambling restrictions.

• The New York Attorney General’s office declined to comment on the federal order.

Amazeballs: “I don’t even think the legal analysis is really wrong; I just think it’s amazing that a federal regulator has concluded that any effort to shut down sports gambling would be an emergency for financial markets.” Matt Levine, Money Stuff, Bloomberg.

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• Novig has filed lawsuits against gaming regulators in Massachusetts, New Mexico and Washington, adding to an action launched against New York last week. The prediction-market operator is seeking preliminary injunctions in federal court to prevent state enforcement against its launched platform. Novig argues the CFTC has exclusive authority over prediction markets, echoing claims advanced by rival operators.

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Prediction compliance

Behind the 8 ball: Major financial institutions are moving rapidly into prediction markets, but Michael Ross of StarCompliance argued this week in a LinkedIn posting that their compliance and control models are struggling to keep pace with the commercial expansion.

• Ross says firms are increasingly looking to their peers for guidance before committing to policies covering prediction-market activity.

• This ‘pack’ behavior can reduce the perceived risk of acting alone, but it does not amount to an agreed industry standard.

• Fundamental questions remain unresolved, including how event contracts should be classified and whether employees should be permitted to trade them.

Are you sitting uncomfortably? For Ross, the problem is that prediction markets do not sit comfortably within controls built around familiar financial instruments.

• Their expansion creates new routes through which employees may exploit confidential or market-sensitive information.

• Meanwhile, they also introduce conflicts that conventional personal-account dealing policies and surveillance systems may fail to identify.

Exposed: A contract’s regulatory or product label should therefore not determine how compliance teams treat it. The more important questions concern the underlying economic exposure, who may possess an informational advantage and whether that information can be monetized.

• An employee could potentially trade on knowledge about a regulatory decision, corporate announcement, political development or other event without triggering controls focused narrowly on securities.

Across the waterfront: Ross argues that firms should resist responding to each emerging product with another isolated control. Instead, they need a broader compliance architecture capable of following the risk across different instruments and venues.

• That means reassessing employee-trading rules, conflicts management, information barriers, surveillance and approval processes before prediction-market participation becomes widespread.

• His central warning is that institutional adoption is accelerating faster than consensus around the necessary safeguards.

• Firms following the pack commercially should not assume that peer activity removes their obligation to establish defensible controls of their own.

Integrity moves

• Kalshi has signed a multi-year partnership with Nasdaq Market Surveillance to strengthen oversight of its prediction markets. Nasdaq’s technology will be introduced in phases, adding real-time, cross-market and cross-asset monitoring for manipulation, insider trading and other misconduct. The platform will complement Kalshi’s existing surveillance systems and support delivery of trade data to the CFTC in its required format.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Vapour trail: UK betting shops and AGCs join vape shops in being blamed for the decline in UK high streets, according to the new measures to be introduced by Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s recently reconstituted Labour government.

• The measures are among a series announced today in an attempt to reverse the “hollowing out” of the high streets in the UK.

• Councils will be “given the powers they need to rein in unwanted shops and bring town centres back to life,” Burnham said.

My aim is true: The “aim to permit” rule as enshrined in legislation means local authorities are limited in their ability to refuse new license applications for both betting shops and AGCs.

• Burnham said “the rise of vape shops, betting shops and rogue operators have replaced the shops, services and community spaces that people are crying out for.”

• “That’s not on. I said we would improve Britain’s high streets, and that’s exactly what we are starting to do,” he added.

• “We’re putting communities back in control and giving local people a real say over what opens on their high street.”

Measures of deprivation: The new rules on AGCs make much of the 24-hour nature of their offerings, and mean planning permission will now be needed.

• Officials cited concerns about the high concentration of gambling premises in certain areas, especially deprived communities.

Good gollings, miss mollings: The move was applauded by the Social Market Foundation, which late last year had called for greater licensing powers to be granted to local authorities, including cumulative impact assessments, with no further delay.

• Jamie Gollings, co-author of a report entitled ‘High Streets at Stake’ and deputy research director at the Social Market Foundation, said the moves were a “significant and welcome step for local democracy and thriving communities.”

• “Councils know their high streets better than anyone, yet the ‘aim to permit’ rule has meant they’ve had very little real say over what opens on them,” he added.

• “Our research made clear that these venues are proliferating in the poorest communities, are linked to anti-social behaviour, and often fail the basic tests of fairness and harm prevention set out in the Gambling Act itself.”

• “Today’s announcement is exactly what we called for and it puts decision-making back where it belongs – with the councils and communities who have to live with the consequences.”

Counter claim: The aim to restrict new betting shops seems to run counter to the facts on the ground. Data cited by the Financial Times shows the number of betting shops is on the decline, down to under 5,900 from nearer 9,000 in 2015.

• The decline is partly down to the moves introduced in 2019 to restrict the stakes and prizes of category 2 machines or FOBTs.

Wrong signal: The Betting & Gaming Council responded to the news, saying that while the industry supports “tough action against criminal operators” and agrees local people should have a “proper say over their high streets,” the suggestion that betting shops are “spreading unchecked is simply wrong.”

• “Betting shop numbers have fallen by over a third since 2019. Around 3,000 shops have closed and over 15,000 jobs have already been lost,” it added.

• “It is wrong to lump highly regulated, licensed betting shops together with rogue or criminal businesses. Betting shops still support 37,500 jobs, bring vital footfall to neighbouring businesses and, for many customers, are valued community hubs.”

• “The real threat to Britain’s hard-pressed high streets is more empty units and fewer local jobs, not businesses rooted in the communities they serve.”

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+More

• A gambling ad break: Australia’s government will unveil a major overhaul of gambling regulation in the House of Representatives early next week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said. The Interactive Gambling Amendment Bill reportedly reflects compromises between the governing parties over previously proposed advertising restrictions. Rather than imposing a complete ban on gambling advertising, the legislation is expected to restrict free bets, promotional credits and gaming ads. Albanese said he was confident of securing parliamentary support following several years of debate over gambling reform and related consumer protections.

Mansour’s New York complaint

Coming for us: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has argued that New York’s lawsuit against the prediction market operator represents a challenge to the entire event contract industry rather than a narrow dispute over sports trading.

• Speaking to CNBC’s Squawk Box, Mansour rejected the idea that the case was simply a states’ rights battle with federal regulators.

• New York alleges that Kalshi facilitates gambling by allowing customers to risk money on future events outside their control.

• “This lawsuit is not about sports,” Mansour said. “It’s going after all prediction markets in their entirety, the entire business model.”

Standing firm: Mansour claimed the state’s reasoning lacked a “limiting principle” that would distinguish Kalshi contracts from other speculative financial instruments.

• “You could copy-paste that lawsuit and apply it against Nasdaq,” he said, arguing that options and other financial products can also resemble gambling.

• Kalshi maintains that it operates under federal oversight and spent years securing its regulatory license.

• Mansour said the business was complying with every rule imposed upon it and “stands firmly” behind its federal authorization.

The song remains the same: He characterized the litigation as part of a familiar response from incumbent industries confronted by disruptive competition, comparing the contest between prediction markets and sportsbooks with the battles between Uber and taxis or Airbnb and hotels.

• The established playbook, he said, was to litigate then legislate and eventually compete once it became clear that consumer demand would persist.

Money talks: Mansour also sought to counter New York’s customer-protection argument by claiming the state’s Kalshi users had collectively made more than $200m this year.

• Unlike a sportsbook, he argued, Kalshi does not trade against its customers but connects counterparties and charges a transaction fee.

• Those figures were asserted by Mansour during the interview and were not independently substantiated in the discussion.

Taxation was the second pillar of Kalshi’s defense. Mansour said the company had submitted a proposal to the governor that could raise close to $10bn from the prediction market industry over five years, including taxes on operators and customer gains.

• He claimed the model could generate substantially more for New York than the state receives from sportsbooks, although he said Kalshi had received no response.

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• Against all odds: The CFTC has warned prediction market operators against displaying event contracts using American-style betting odds, saying the format risks misleading customers about the products they are trading. Bloomberg reported that the regulator instructed exchanges, introducing brokers and futures commission merchants to present prices in nominal or percentage terms consistent with derivatives markets. The letter said bookmaker-style odds could encourage greater risk-taking and potentially steer consumers towards higher-margin gambling products.

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Pause for reflection

All out: Bally’s has paused construction of the non-gaming elements of its $1.7bn permanent Chicago casino, escalating its dispute with the city over the introduction of video gaming terminals.

• The company told its general contractor, Chicago Community Builders Collective, to halt work on the hotel tower, event center and restaurants while it “resets the pace of construction.”

• Work on the casino itself will continue, with Bally’s maintaining its early 2027 opening target.

She’s lost control: Bally’s argues the “uncontrolled proliferation” of VGTs violates its Host Community Agreement with Chicago and could undermine commitments attached to the development, including a $4m annual payment to the city.

• It warned the pause could affect the 1,500 union tradespeople working on the project and said it would continue assessing its options while seeking talks with the mayor’s office and City Council.

Alternative facts: The confrontation follows Chicago’s decision to legalize VGTs through an alternative $16.6bn city budget that allocated more than $6m of expected licensing revenue. Bally’s estimates the machines could reduce its annual revenue by $74m and cost hundreds of jobs.

• It hired law firm Fahner Rosenberg in June as part of efforts to protect its investment, potentially laying the ground for litigation.

Accel all areas: As Compliance+More reported last week, Chicago’s VGT rollout is already advancing. Accel Entertainment was connected to 17 of the first 39 establishments approved by the Illinois Gaming Board and expects the first venues to begin operating within weeks.

• Accel believes Chicago could ultimately become a $1bn-a-year gaming-revenue market.

• That estimate underlines the scale of the competitive threat perceived by Bally’s.

• The dispute also creates further uncertainty around a project already affected by construction stoppages and a hotel redesign.

• Bally’s has until September 2027 to open its permanent casino after securing an extension for its temporary Medinah Temple license, but the latest pause raises the prospect that the gaming floor could open well before the wider resort is completed.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

Subscribe now

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Chicago gets connected: Accel Entertainment is preparing to switch on video gaming terminals (VGTs) at its first Chicago locations within weeks, putting the Illinois distributed-gaming leader at the front of a market that it believes could eventually generate around $1bn in annual gaming revenue.

• The Illinois Gaming Board issued its first establishment licenses for Chicago VGT locations in June, followed by another round in July.

• Of the 39 establishments approved by the state by the time of Accel’s second-quarter earnings call, 17 were Accel locations.

The route ahead: That does not yet mean those businesses can begin operating. Chicago’s Department of Business Affairs and Consumer Protection must also issue a city video gaming license. The state board can then permit the terminal operator to connect the machines to Illinois’ central communications system and go live. But the process has moved further and faster than analysts had expected.

• Accel’s outgoing CEO Andy Rubenstein said the first establishments could begin operating “in the coming weeks,” although he allowed that the starting date could slip into the next couple of months.

• “We’re really close to that starting point, and whether it’s weeks or a couple of months, we don’t know,” he told analysts on the company’s Q2 call this week.

• “There aren’t any additional hurdles that we foresee at this point. This is the last hurdle.”

First-mover advantage: Accel’s initial 44% share of approved establishments is above its ~30% share of Illinois locations. The company is not assuming it can retain that early advantage as the Chicago market broadens.

• Incoming CEO Mark Phelan said Accel would “probably” secure a similar share in Chicago to the one it holds statewide

• “Relationships in Chicago will roll out over time, and I wouldn’t expect a big difference between the two entities.”

• Accel has equipment staged, routes mapped and servicing infrastructure prepared. Its existing Illinois operation means the incremental cost of adding Chicago should be relatively low.

• “Because we already operate at scale across Illinois, the incremental cost for us to stand up Chicago is low, and we can move as quickly as the city process allows,” Phelan said.

The shape of things to come: Accel expects full-year capital expenditure of $60m-$70m, with the precise amount partly dependent on the timing of Chicago approvals and deployments. Most of that spending, however, remains replacement capital across the wider business rather than Chicago-specific expenditure.

• Phelan said the city was “probably worth about $1bn in total revenue,” of which terminal operators collectively receive about one-third.

• But Accel does not expect Chicago to approach maturity quickly. Rubenstein put the full deployment period at “five-plus years,” leaving considerable uncertainty around the eventual number of locations, terminal productivity and Accel’s market share.

Open the gates: Texas Capital believes a mature Chicago market could contribute more than $45m annually to Accel. Citizens estimates the opportunity is worth ~$40m over the next several years and expects little near-term EBITDA impact, with a more meaningful contribution beginning in 2027.

• The upside case assumes that once initial locations demonstrate the model, more applicants will follow. Rubenstein said some prospective participants appeared to be waiting to see what the market looked like before applying.

• “I think that once the doors open or the gates open, you’ll have a more normal flow of applications,” he said.

Expanded horizons: For Chicago, VGTs offer a route to expand regulated gaming without relying solely on a destination casino. They can distribute gaming and its associated tax receipts through existing neighborhood businesses.

• More widely, the rollout will provide another test of whether distributed gaming complements or cannibalizes casinos and other regulated products.

• Accel’s Illinois performance suggests demand for hyperlocal gaming remains resilient: Q2 revenue from its Illinois distributed-gaming operations, excluding Fairmount Park, increased 6% YoY.

• Average location hold per day rose 9% to $992 despite modest declines in location and terminal numbers.

Head above the parapet: A market approaching management’s $1bn estimate will almost inevitably attract scrutiny over density, enforcement and its effects on other gaming channels. The first challenge is getting terminals operational; the next will be demonstrating that the system can expand without sacrificing regulatory control.

• Chicago offers Accel something unusual in gaming: a potentially significant new market adjoining its largest existing operation.

• That makes the opportunity strategically attractive and comparatively inexpensive to pursue. But this will be a licensing story before it becomes an earnings story.

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Betway’s kit kerfuffle

Red devils: In announcing a new training kit sponsorship deal with Manchester United, Super Group appeared to tweak the tail of the anti-gambling lobby.

• The new multi-year deal is reported to be worth £20m per season and means the Betway name will be visible on United’s training kit and around Old Trafford on matchdays.

• The deal is reportedly the biggest of its kind in world football and Manchester United’s chief business officer Marc Armstrong said it reflected the club’s “ability to attract leading brands that want to engage with our vast worldwide fanbase.”

Training day: Inevitably, the news drew a response from the Coalition to End Gambling Ads (CEGA) whose Nick Harvey told the Daily Mirror: “With tens of thousands of ads still plastered across stadiums, shirt sleeves and the media, removing shirtfront logos is already just a gesture.”

• The 2026/27 season is the first in which the voluntary ban on front-of-shirt sponsorships in the Premier League comes into force.

• “The ban on shirtfront ads won’t make a dent in football’s grubby gambling deals,” said CEGA in a LinkedIn post promoting its petition to Prime Minister Andy Burnham to end all sponsorships.

Kalshi’s Utah ruling

A grain of salt: A federal judge has ruled Utah can enforce its anti-gambling laws against Kalshi, handing states another victory in the battle over whether prediction markets should be regulated as financial exchanges or gambling platforms.

• US District Judge Robert Shelby rejected Kalshi’s request to block Utah from applying its gambling restrictions, finding the federal law cited by the company does not prevent state enforcement.

• Kalshi, which sued Utah in February, said it disagreed with the ruling and would appeal.

What it says on the tin: Utah law now prohibits sports proposition betting, covering wagers on events within games rather than the final outcome, a potentially important restriction for prediction-market operators.

• Attorney General Derek Brown said the state would enforce its laws, declaring: “Gambling is gambling, no matter what any company calls it.”

Pros and cons: The ruling adds to an increasingly fragmented legal picture. Courts in Maryland, Nevada, Ohio, New York and Wisconsin have ruled against Kalshi in similar disputes, while judges in New Jersey, Tennessee, Arizona and Minnesota have sided with the company.

• Kalshi maintains that its CFTC-regulated event contracts fall exclusively under federal jurisdiction.

• The CFTC has supported that position in court, setting up an escalating conflict over the boundaries between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling law.

Genius and Kalshi

Friends for life: Meanwhile, Genius Sports has signed a partnership with Kalshi to supply the CFTC-regulated prediction market with official sports data, marketing and integrity services, extending the data provider’s push into event contracts.

• Under the agreement, Kalshi will receive real-time official data across Genius’ soccer portfolio, including the Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, Argentina’s Primera División and Ligue 1.

• The verified feeds will be used to settle sports prediction contracts, providing a consistent source of truth and reducing reliance on unofficial or delayed data.

The mark of trust: The integrity element will see Kalshi participate in Genius’ established information-sharing processes, with provisions to restrict certain market types and improve visibility around trading activity.

• Sean Conroy, EVP of rights and partnerships at Genius, said prediction markets would scale through “trusted, fast and accurate data” plus robust integrity services, positioning the company as an enabling technology provider for the sector.

• Denmark’s Gambling Authority has reopened applications for land-based casino licenses, inviting new entrants and operators seeking 10-year renewals. Applications are due by November 3 and will be assessed on financial strength, experience, liquidity, ownership and geographic factors. Denmark currently has seven licensed casinos. The move comes after land-based casino GGR fell 5.6% to DKK378m ($58.4m) in 2025, just 3% of the gambling market, while online casino revenue rose 12.1% YoY.

• Not wild, furious: Nine Senate Democrats, led by Oregon’s Jeff Merkley, urged CFTC chair Michael Selig to act against prediction market contracts linked to wildfires. Their letter cited $1.2m wagered through Polymarket’s international platform on California’s deadly Palisades and Eaton fires, although that operation falls outside CFTC oversight. Lawmakers also highlighted Wyldfyre, a standalone platform offering markets on California wildfires. However, Wyldfyre uses play money and is not federally registered, complicating the senators’ case for direct regulatory intervention by the agency.

• Onboarding Compliance Specialist – Limassol

• Senior Product Compliance Manager – UAE

• Internal Security Integrity Lead – Malta

Wynn’s date with UAE destiny

See you in September: Wynn Resorts has put September 2027 on the opening of Wynn Al Marjan Island, giving the UAE’s first land-based casino a firm timetable. CEO Craig Billings told analysts that construction was progressing, with hotel fit-out under way and pre-opening recruitment and planning advancing.

• The date reflects when construction and snagging should be complete and the operating team will have had time to take control of the building.

• Billings said it was “fair to say” that demand for the resort’s core gaming product should exceed supply because Wynn would be “a monopoly” when it opens.

On your own: Wynn Al Marjan remains the only land-based gaming facility listed by the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority, which has jurisdiction over gaming in the UAE. Its register names Island 3 AMI FZ-LLC, trading as Wynn Al Marjan. The GCGRA said operators remain subject to regulatory reporting and continuing supervision.

• Wynn therefore appears to be planning around a first-mover advantage rather than waiting for a broader casino market.

• Billings expects robust local and regional demand alongside a global customer pipeline, with the initial mix determining where Wynn deploys marketing and casino hosts.

• The resort is expected to open fully rather than in phases as the market enters peak season.

• Wynn did not identify any outstanding regulatory condition that could alter the timetable.

War games: Geopolitical disruption, rather than licensing, dominated management’s discussion of execution risk. Regional conflict has affected supply chains, shipping insurance and staff movements, contributing to a roughly $600m budget increase and the later opening.

• CFO Craig Fullalove said the UAE had continued functioning under pressure, while Billings said Wynn was planning on a “normal course” basis.

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• Lower Costs: Increase debit throughput to reduce costs against ACH/Wallets

• Eliminate Chargebacks and Disputes

• Eliminate Debit Declines

• Built-in Responsible Gaming tools

To learn more, contact Matthew Cullen, chief strategy officer on Matthew@edgemarkets.io

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

Subscribe now

⚽ Ready to reinvent player protection? 🌍

Mindway AI introduces Gamalyze Sports—our next-generation, gamified responsible gambling solution designed specifically for sports bettors.

Forget boring, static questionnaires that players ignore. Mindway AI turns player protection into an interactive football game, over a decade of research of neuroscience and behavioural research to analyse real-time decision-making on the pitch. By replacing retroactive surveys with active gameplay, it delivers an unbiased, highly engaging experience that builds genuine self-awareness for players, while giving operators deep behavioural insights straight to their dashboard.

Localised in 14 languages, it’s the ultimate way to safeguard fans this summer.

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An +More Media publication.

For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.

Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

Learn more at www.yaspa.com

Does it matter more when there’s money on it? One of the prediction market sector’s strongest arguments is that forecasts become valuable because participants have money at risk. Hypermind has produced evidence suggesting the equation is not so simple.

• Authored by the CEO of the Paris-based forecasting company, Dr. Emile Servan-Schreiber, the report analyzed the entire history of its play-money prediction market.

• This consists of 1,141 resolved markets, comprising 694 binary and 447 multi-outcome questions, and 981,180 trades conducted between May 2014 and July 2026.

Prize giving: Its conclusion is that Hypermind’s forecasts were approximately as accurate as those generated by Polymarket and Kalshi, even though it does not allow participants to wager real money.

• Instead, every trader begins with the same allocation of virtual currency but there are no refills, so poor performers are weeded out while good performers prosper and gain influence.

• The best forecasters share annual cash prizes linked to their play-money profits.

• Across the markets included in the study, Hypermind distributed €72,000 in total rewards, a fraction of the money passing through the largest commercial prediction platforms.

• After nearly 1 million trades on more than 1,000 questions, Hypermind has demonstrated enviable calibration accuracy: events priced at an 80% probability happen very close to 80% of the time, those priced at 25% probability happen 25% of the time, and this holds at every probability level with 99.4% accuracy.

Serious business: The headline comparison with Kalshi and Polymarket is more complicated than the raw scores imply. Hypermind’s market selection is heavily weighted toward politics, geopolitics, economics and business.

• Around 70% of its questions were political or geopolitical and another 21% concerned economics. Sports markets were rare.

• That matters because Polymarket and, particularly, Kalshi carry much more short-duration sports activity.

Mother superior: Hypermind’s figures appear to favor itself, but the company appropriately stops short of claiming outright superiority. The platforms did not offer identical markets over identical periods, while the comparison involved only 259 Polymarket questions and 183 from Kalshi.

• A definitive contest would require contemporaneous prices for identically worded contracts with identical resolution criteria.

• Hypermind acknowledges that such evidence is unavailable. Its defensible conclusion is parity, not victory.

• The report is Hypermind analyzing Hypermind. The company publishes its underlying trading and resolution data, and it used third-party datasets for its competitors.

• But its conclusions should still be understood as the platform’s own research rather than independent validation.

Doing scales: In the arguments surrounding the regulation of prediction markets, accuracy is increasingly used to distinguish event contracts from conventional gambling. The argument holds that real-money markets aggregate dispersed information, generate valuable probabilities and consequently deserve treatment as useful financial or forecasting infrastructure.

• Hypermind does not show that real money reduces accuracy.

• Nor does it demonstrate that a relatively small, motivated forecasting community could provide enough liquidity for every commercial-use case.

• Monetary stakes may attract participants, sustain continuous trading and allow markets to scale far beyond a prize-funded research platform.

Is this really necessary? The report does, however, weaken the stronger proposition that wagering is necessary for accurate forecasting. Hypermind’s structure still gives participants something meaningful to lose: poor performance diminishes their virtual capital, status and influence.

• What it removes is the ability to suffer significant personal financial losses.

• That distinction matters when operators invoke forecasting utility to justify contracts that increasingly resemble sportsbook products.

• Hypermind’s sample contains very few head-to-head sporting events, so the study cannot establish that play money would replicate the liquidity or accuracy of high-volume sports markets.

• But it does invite regulators to separate three questions that are often bundled together: whether a market forecasts accurately, whether real-money trading improves that forecast and whether the resulting public value justifies its regulatory treatment.

Burden of proof: The next useful test would be a genuine head-to-head study covering identical questions, timestamps and resolution rules across play-money and real-money platforms.

• Sports contracts would be especially important, given their growing commercial weight and their relative absence from Hypermind’s history.

• Until then, Hypermind’s evidence would appear to shift the burden of proof.

• If commercial platforms contend that the public benefits of prediction markets depend upon real-money participation, they now need to demonstrate what money adds beyond scale, liquidity and revenue.

• The full Hypermind methodology and findings are available in its forecasting-accuracy report.

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+More

New York raises Kalshi stakes

Empire state of mind: New York has launched what could become the most consequential state-level legal challenge yet against Kalshi, seeking to prevent the prediction market operator from serving residents and demanding damages reportedly calculated at $36bn.

• The lawsuit, brought by Attorney General Letitia James with the backing of Governor Kathy Hochul, alleges Kalshi is operating an unlicensed gambling business.

• It argues that contracts allowing customers to stake money on sports, elections and cultural events constitute gambling under New York law, regardless of Kalshi’s status as a federally regulated derivatives exchange.

Damage done: The state is seeking the forfeiture of Kalshi’s alleged illegal gains, fines worth three times those gains and penalties of $100,000 for every wager placed by a New York resident.

• Together, New York reportedly calculates the potential damages at $36bn, far exceeding Kalshi’s $22bn valuation at its latest completed funding round and its estimated $1.6bn of lifetime fee revenue.

• The final award, if the state succeeds, would be determined through the proceedings.

• InGame described it as potentially the most significant state action against the company so far.

“No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple,” James said. Hochul accused Kalshi of choosing to ignore laws designed to protect consumers, address problem gambling, finance public services and ensure operators compete under common rules.

• The complaint also highlights contracts that licensed New York sportsbooks cannot offer, including markets involving in-state college teams.

Litigate this: The filing followed defeats for Kalshi in federal court. The US District Court for the Southern District of New York rejected its request to prevent the state enforcing a cease-and-desist order while the wider dispute was litigated.

• The Second Circuit subsequently denied emergency protection pending Kalshi’s appeal, clearing the way for New York to act.

• Kalshi immediately sought to transfer the new case from state to federal court. Its defense is expected to maintain that the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over its contracts, preempting state gambling legislation.

• New York contends that federal registration does not provide a license to disregard its laws.

Ramifications: The importance extends beyond one market. A New York ban would exclude Kalshi from a state of almost 20 million people and its own home city, representing a materially greater commercial setback than restrictions in smaller jurisdictions.

• More broadly, the case sharpens the fundamental regulatory battle surrounding sports event contracts: whether they are federally supervised financial instruments or gambling products subject to state licensing, taxation and consumer-protection requirements.

• New York’s official announcement presents the action as an attempt to make Kalshi comply with the same rules governing licensed sportsbooks.

Not amused: The head of the CFTC, Michael Selig, was left unimpressed by the move, posting on X: “Rather than seek reasoned answers from the courts, Letitia James and New York seek to force an unprecedented sudden shutdown of prediction markets nationwide. The CFTC has already sued to stop this and will continue to defend its jurisdiction.”

• Wisconsin: The CFTC has suffered a legal setback after US District Judge William Griesbach denied its request for a preliminary injunction preventing Wisconsin from enforcing state gambling laws against prediction market operators. The regulator sued Wisconsin after the state brought cases against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Coinbase, maintaining that federally regulated event contracts fall exclusively under its Commodity Exchange Act jurisdiction. Griesbach’s ruling allows Wisconsin’s enforcement actions to continue while the federal case proceeds. The outcome strengthens states’ contention that sports contracts amount to gambling subject to local licensing laws.

• No fit state: Former US congressman George Santos has been ordered by the CFTC to surrender $17.5k in profits and pay a $17.5k penalty for manipulating an event contract concerning his attendance at the 2026 State of the Union. Santos traded while publishing misleading social media posts about whether he would attend, moving prices in his favor. The regulator also imposed a three-year trading ban and ordered him to cease further violations.

• Italian Serie A side Lazio has reportedly terminated its shirt-sponsorship agreement with Polymarket after Italian authorities blacklisted and blocked the prediction market platform for allegedly providing unlicensed betting services. The two-year deal, signed in April, was worth €22m.

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Lottery refusal

It’s a no from me: The Court of Appeal has refused The New Lottery Company (TNLC) and Northern & Shell permission to challenge part of an April High Court judgment dismissing their claims against the UK Gambling Commission over the fourth National Lottery license.

• TNLC’s case concerned the competition that awarded the license to Allwyn UK and subsequent modifications to the agreement between Allwyn and the regulator.

• The High Court rejected all claims, finding for the Commission over the procurement process and the changes made during implementation.

Vanishing point: Lord Justice Coulson dismissed all three grounds of appeal. He concluded that TNLC should not be allowed to introduce a new legal argument, one that amounted to pursuing a line expressly ruled out before the High Court.

• He added that TNLC’s prospects of success would have been “vanishingly small,” even under a less demanding standard, and observed that the company had suffered no practical loss.

All clear: The Commission welcomed the refusal as confirmation that it ran a “fair and robust” competition and that the disputed license changes were neither substantial nor contrary to procurement regulations.

• It said the outcome would enable Allwyn to continue investing in the National Lottery without distraction, under the regulator’s oversight.

• The judgment removes another source of legal uncertainty surrounding Allwyn’s operation of the lottery and its investment program.

• The Commission said its priority remained regulating the lottery for participants and good causes.

• No dogs allowed: Commercial greyhound racing has ended in New Zealand, with a statutory ban taking effect on August 1 following the final races on July 31. The prohibition, announced in December 2024 and passed with cross-party support, prompted a NZ$60m ($35.2m) TAB New Zealand program to rehome around 1,400 dogs. TAB may still offer betting on overseas races, while offshore operators remain prohibited.

What we’re reading

• Aussie disrules: Former rugby league player turned TikTok influencer Luke Bateman tells parliamentary inquiry his spiralling addiction to gambling cost him about A$1m ($701k). In The Guardian.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

Subscribe now

GuardDog, powered by Underdog, is a pioneering investment fund dedicated to fostering innovation in responsible gaming.

GuardDog supports and accelerates early-stage startups focused on building new and creative solutions to address problem gaming and further responsible gaming.

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An +More Media publication.

For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.

Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

Learn more at www.yaspa.com

Stepping in

Someone to watch over me: The secondment of senior Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) official Sarah Fox to the UK Gambling Commission’s executive team is being interpreted by industry sources as an attempt to reinforce an embattled regulator, following senior departures and an increasingly public dispute over financial risk assessments (FRAs).

• Fox will lead the Commission’s policy, research and statistics functions, as well as National Lottery regulation.

• She has headed DCMS’ gambling and lotteries team for four years, covering the gambling white paper, the fourth National Lottery license, society lotteries and horse racing.

Into the breach: The Commission presented the appointment as a response to “recent changes” in its senior team, including the departure of executive director Tim Miller. It also follows Andrew Rhodes stepping down as CEO at the end of April, leaving deputy CEO Sarah Gardner in charge on an acting basis.

• “Fox brings experience and capability that it could be argued the Commission is without right now,” one industry source told C+M.

• “It does indicate how embattled the Commission has become, and the Commission’s conduct has arguably not helped DCMS or the government.”

Lack of confidence: Officially, Fox is crossing over to help complete the final stages of white paper implementation and assess the reforms’ impact. Gardner said Fox’s existing knowledge of the sector would be “invaluable.”

• But the timing gives the secondment a wider significance, with another source arguing it looked like a response to a developing confidence problem.

• “Recent events are building a picture of the widespread distrust of the regulator,” they added.

• “The BHA [British Horseracing Authority] spat and the evident select committee frustration does feel a bit more serious.”

Yes, minister: The arrival of a senior official from the Commission’s sponsoring department inevitably raises the question of whether DCMS wants a closer view of – and potentially greater influence over – the regulator’s handling of its most politically sensitive work.

• One source described it, speculatively, as an attempt to improve the Commission’s accountability.

• The other suggested the secondment of Fox “therefore looks like a response – that DCMS needs to get some control on the situation.”

That interpretation is not supported explicitly by either organization. Nor has the Commission indicated that Gardner’s position is changing. Nevertheless, the appointment gives DCMS an experienced representative inside the executive team at a point when the regulator lacks a permanent CEO and has lost Miller.

• “It’s at least plausible that Fox has been brought in to provide some leadership where it’s desperately needed right now,” the first source said.

Torn and FRA-ed: The immediate backdrop is the Commission’s decision to proceed with FRAs despite continuing questions about the evidence produced by its pilot.

• The DCMS Select Committee wrote to Gardner this month seeking explanations about the evidence base, implementation process, engagement with racing and the absence of Commission witnesses before the committee in the current parliament.

Missing inaction: One source said the lack of an appearance in front of the committee in over three years was “a very long time given everything that has gone on,” before adding “they’ve been avoiding scrutiny. Instead, they appear content with sending snotty letters to critics.”

• The last appearance made by a Commission representative came in September 2023.

• A Commission spokesperson said that, since then, the regulator has appeared in front of the Commons Health and Social Care Committee in April 2025, the Lords Liaison Committee in June 2026 and the Lords International Agreements Committee in July 2026.

• However, the spokesperson did not respond to a question about whether it has been asked by the DCMS Select Committee to appear and refused.

Flat out: The committee’s intervention has since been followed by an unusually ill-tempered exchange with the BHA. Gardner said the Commission was “surprised and disappointed” by claims that it had failed to engage with racing and maintained that those claims were not “borne out by the facts.”

• The BHA responded that the regulator had failed to engage in the weeks before approving FRAs, despite the governing body’s efforts to make contact.

• The BHA also criticized the decision to implement the checks before publishing the underlying evidence and accused DCMS of continuing to delegate policymaking to an unelected quango.

Cutting through: Racing’s intervention matters because its complaints carry political weight beyond the licensed operator community. “The whole of horse racing’s reaction to the FRA situation points to the frustrations,” the second source said.

• “If you get complaints from people who you wouldn’t expect to be complaining, then that can’t be helpful.”

• “Certainly, horse racing complaining is starting to cut through.”

Inside job: Fox’s secondment does not amount to a formal intervention and she inherits a substantial operational brief spanning policy, research and the National Lottery. But against the leadership vacuum and the increasingly acrimonious FRA debate, the optics are difficult to avoid.

• The culture ministry has placed one of its most experienced gambling officials inside the Commission just as questions about the regulator’s evidence, engagement and accountability are moving beyond routine industry criticism and into parliament.

• Whether Fox has been sent simply to add capacity or also to steady the ship will now be closely watched.

⚽ Ready to reinvent player protection? 🌍

Mindway AI introduces Gamalyze Sports—our next-generation, gamified responsible gambling solution designed specifically for sports bettors.

Forget boring, static questionnaires that players ignore. Mindway AI turns player protection into an interactive football game, over a decade of research of neuroscience and behavioural research to analyse real-time decision-making on the pitch. By replacing retroactive surveys with active gameplay, it delivers an unbiased, highly engaging experience that builds genuine self-awareness for players, while giving operators deep behavioural insights straight to their dashboard.

Localised in 14 languages, it’s the ultimate way to safeguard fans this summer.

👉 Click here to try the Mindway AI Gamalyze Sports demo now!

+More

• Lobby spending: OSB operators have contributed at least $72m to influence the 2026 US midterms, making the sector the third-largest corporate donor behind crypto and technology, according to Public Citizen. DraftKings supplied at least $34m and FanDuel $27m to super-PAC Win for America, which backs candidates from both parties. The spending comes as operators face growing competition and scrutiny from prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

• Boyle Sports ad rap: The UK Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) upheld a complaint against BoyleSports over an online ‘Bank Builder Jackpot’ promotion offering free bets and a weekly £10,000 pool. It found the offer encouraged frequent, repetitive gambling by requiring qualifying £10 bets on four to seven days a week, potentially across four weeks, with some rewards prompting further play soon afterwards. The ASA ruled this was socially irresponsible and could cause financial harm, ordering the ad be withdrawn and future promotions amended to comply accordingly.

• Head of Tax – Remote

• Head of Compliance - FTC – Malta

• Finance Manager – London

The CFTC comment window

Editorial note: The responses to the CFTC comment window are voluminous and multi-faceted with opinions as varied as your average slate of sports-based event markets. For a rundown of who is saying what, we direct you to InGame’s fulsome coverage here.

CME’s sporting distinction

Future tense: CME Group is preparing to offer futures and options linked to professional and college sports, days after chair and CEO Terry Duffy described many sports prediction contracts as gambling and said the exchange wanted to avoid the regulatory fray.

• The Chicago-based derivatives operator is working with FutureSports, a new index provider that will convert team and athlete statistics into benchmark indexes.

• The first cash-settled contracts could begin trading this summer, subject to regulatory approval, with monthly and quarterly expiries.

• “This isn’t just a new product – it’s about bringing real price discovery and risk-management discipline to an industry that’s ready for it,” Duffy said in a statement reported by Bloomberg.

Drawing the line: CME’s distinction appears to rest on the contracts being conventional derivatives tied to sports-related indexes rather than binary event contracts determining whether a team wins or a player achieves a particular outcome.

• That separates the proposed products, at least structurally, from the sports contracts offered by Kalshi and Polymarket that Duffy criticized during CME’s Q2 earnings call.

• “A lot of these prediction markets on sports are gambling, and I think that is going to find its way to the Supreme Court,” he said.

• “That is not something we want to be a part of participating in right now.”

• Duffy was particularly critical of sports parlays and contracts he considered vulnerable to manipulation. “Those are not markets,” he said. “Those are gambling.”

Hedge your bets: CME and FutureSports are instead presenting their products as risk-management instruments for businesses whose finances are exposed to sporting performance. FutureSports co-founder Leigh Taylforth said the companies were seeing “incredible demand” from prospective users.

• This included stadium owners and operators, sponsors, endorsers, insurers, apparel manufacturers and league broadcasting partners.

• It is an attempted extension of CME’s traditional role providing hedging tools for farmers, energy producers, manufacturers and institutional investors.

• Sports leagues will supply the official data underlying the indexes but will not participate in index determination or governance, FutureSports said.

• Further product details and partnerships with professional leagues are expected in the coming weeks.

Semantic sports: The initiative represents a delicate positioning exercise for CME. Duffy can maintain that the group is avoiding wagers on individual games while introducing tradable instruments derived from sporting performance.

• It also adds another dimension to CME’s partnership with Flutter-owned FanDuel, through which the companies launched event contracts covering financial indexes, commodities, cryptocurrencies and economic indicators.

• But as sports betting, prediction markets and conventional derivatives increasingly converge, CME may need to demonstrate that the difference between its new products and the sports contracts Duffy calls gambling extends beyond terminology.

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NFL predictions letter

Coming up short: The NFL has urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to strengthen its proposed prediction market regulations, arguing the draft rules fall “significantly short” of the safeguards required to protect sporting integrity, consumers and the markets themselves.

More needed: In a letter signed by Brendon Plack, the NFL’s senior vice-president of public policy and government affairs, the league acknowledged that the CFTC had advanced “several productive proposals” but said further intervention was required.

• “The NFL’s highest priority is preserving the integrity of our games,” Plack wrote.

• “We believe that this integrity is crucial also to the stable and orderly administration of event contracts that trade on or in connection with our games and to the protection of traders in such contracts.

Blackballed: The league wants the CFTC to prohibit entire categories of contract deemed particularly susceptible to manipulation, instead of examining each market individually.

• Its proposed blacklist covers outcomes that can be influenced by one person, discretionary officiating decisions, individual player performance and events known or knowable before settlement, including first-play, coaching and roster decisions.

• The NFL noted that in a prior letter it had recommended the Commission adopt proactive rules prohibiting certain contracts which are highly susceptible to manipulation or are otherwise objectionable.

• “We believe these objectionable contracts are detrimental to the long-term health of these markets, to the public, and to the leagues,” the new letter added.

Empty threat: The NFL also rejected the proposition that contracts should be permitted to prevent demand migrating offshore. “Contracts imposing the greatest public interest concerns may be among the highest-traded,” it said.

• “We do not believe that otherwise non-compliant contracts should be permitted because they are in high demand or might otherwise be traded on offshore markets.”

Inside information: The league called for stronger provisions governing material nonpublic information, including an explicit rule that trading on information obtained through a duty of confidence to a league, team or governing body constitutes manipulation or deception under the Commodity Exchange Act.

• It also wants league-specific lists of prohibited traders rather than leaving each exchange to police its own participants.

• Other requested measures include reliable data requirements, advertising restrictions and a ban on margin trading.

• The NFL criticized the proposed 10-day CFTC review period, warning that integrity threats might not emerge immediately after a contract is listed.

• It also said existing contracts should not be grandfathered into the new framework and must comply with whatever final rules are adopted.

Same game: On consumer protection, the league’s demands closely resemble the state regulated sportsbook model. It wants the minimum trading age for sports contracts raised from 18 to 21, alongside centralized self-exclusion and prohibited-person systems, deposit and loss limits, cooldown periods, risk controls and periodic activity notifications.

• “Self-exclusion and prohibited-persons lists are ineffective if administered on a platform-by-platform basis,” the letter said.

• “We strongly recommend that these functions be centralized.”

+More predictions

• Minnesota: The state’s prediction market ban, due to take effect on August 1, has been paused by a federal court while lawsuits from Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC proceed. The court indicated the plaintiffs were likely to succeed. They argue event contracts fall under exclusive CFTC oversight, while Minnesota maintains the products constitute unregulated sports betting subject to state gambling law and enforcement.

• New York: Kalshi has suffered a setback in New York after US District Judge Analisa Torres denied its renewed request for a temporary injunction preventing state regulatory action during its appeal. Torres said circumstances had not changed since the original refusal and that granting relief would give Kalshi what it had already been denied. Kalshi argues prediction markets fall exclusively under federal oversight.

• Self-certifying warning: The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight has warned designated contract markets against using broad, template-style self-certifications covering multiple potential event-contract variations. The regulator said such filings can prevent staff from determining whether exchanges have supplied the information and analysis required, including assessments of settlement methods, data sources and compliance with core principles.

• The South African Bookmakers Association (SABA) has called for unlicensed prediction markets to be banned and treated as illegal exchange-style betting until a regulatory framework exists. SABA cited risks around integrity, money laundering, consumer protection and lost tax revenue and questioned whether legislation permits betting exchanges.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

Subscribe now

Increase Operator Margins with EDGE Boost Today!

EDGE Boost is the first dedicated bank account for bettors.

• Increase Cash Access: On/Offline with $250k/day debit limits

• No Integration or Costs: Compatible today with all operators via VISA debit rails

• Incremental Non-Gaming Revenue: Up to 1% operator rebate on transactions

• Lower Costs: Increase debit throughput to reduce costs against ACH/Wallets

• Eliminate Chargebacks and Disputes

• Eliminate Debit Declines

• Built-in Responsible Gaming tools

To learn more, contact Matthew Cullen, chief strategy officer on Matthew@edgemarkets.io

An +More Media publication.

For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.

Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

Learn more at www.yaspa.com

Going for the maximum

Coyly Dart: Evolution’s regulatory exposure has become part of the backdrop to a potential change of ownership after billionaire Kenneth Dart increased his stake in the live casino supplier above Sweden’s 30% mandatory offer threshold.

• Dart’s Candle Lake investment vehicle acquired a further 2.05 million Evolution shares, according to a filing late on Friday.

• The purchase means Candle Lake must launch a formal offer for the remainder of the ~$15.1bn company within four weeks.

• Notably, Dart also has a 27% stake in Flutter Entertainment though there is no suggestion as yet of any further linkage. See E+M tomorrow.

In suspense: The development comes days after the UK Gambling Commission published details of its £4.75m regulatory settlement with Evolution Malta over shortcomings in its AML controls.

• Evolution disclosed the settlement ahead of its Q2 results, when CEO Martin Carlesund described the amount as “a bit high in relation to the actual issue.”

• However, Commission director of enforcement John Pierce said the failings were “serious enough for us to consider licence suspension.”

Hands up: The Commission launched a Section 116 license review after five genuine Evolution games were identified across six websites operated by two businesses without British operating licenses.

• The regulator said the sites received large volumes of visits from UK consumers between December 2023 and November 2024.

• The Commission identified apparent Evolution content in August 2024 and alerted the company that December.

• Evolution confirmed the games were genuine and immediately imposed permanent geoblocking for UK users on the sites concerned, as well as other websites where its content was discovered.

Breach for the sky: The review concluded that Evolution breached license conditions 12.1.1 and 12.1.2 between April 2024 and January 2025. Its AML policies, procedures and controls lacked sufficient detail regarding the due diligence and continuing monitoring of sublicensees, including enhanced measures for higher-risk relationships.

• The Commission said it was unclear what risk-based checks Evolution performed.

• The weaknesses meant its arrangements were ineffective in ensuring its games reached British consumers exclusively through licensed operators.

Dirty washing: The regulator also found that Evolution had not adequately implemented requirements under the 2017 Money Laundering Regulations. It cited failures to identify and assess relevant risks, maintain effective controls against illegal market distribution and comply sufficiently with provisions governing risk assessments, policies and customer due diligence.

• Evolution will make a £4.75m payment in lieu of a financial penalty, cover the Commission’s investigative costs and accept publication of the findings.

• Its operating license will also carry an additional condition requiring an independent audit of the relevant policies, procedures and controls within 12 months of the review’s conclusion.

The charge sheet: Aggravating considerations included the detection of illegal market activity, Evolution’s financial gain from the breaches, their seriousness and the potential implications for protecting vulnerable people. The Commission also noted it had previously made its position on illegal gambling clear.

• In mitigation, Evolution cooperated fully, accepted the failings at an appropriately early stage and quickly introduced a remedial action plan.

• The findings underline that B2B suppliers remain directly responsible for their distribution chains and cannot rely solely on operator customers to prevent content from reaching regulated markets through unlicensed websites.

On the high seas: Whether the settlement marks the end of Evolution’s UK regulatory difficulties is debatable. A Rothschild analyst note issued shortly before Evolution notified investors of the settlement claimed to have identified fresh weaknesses in the supplier’s technical controls.

• Following reporting by Investigate Europe concerning Soft2Bet, Rothschild tested whether games from Evolution-owned Red Tiger could be accessed through the Fat Pirate website using two separate UK internet connections.

• The analysts said the games loaded successfully through both a standard home broadband connection and a 5G mobile hotspot without the use of a VPN.

• “Holes have consistently been found in Evolution’s technical ring-fencing implementation,” the analysts said.

Candle in the wind: The regulatory questions are now likely to form part of the assessment of Candle Lake’s mandatory offer. Evolution is one of the few listed B2B casino suppliers and therefore faces greater public scrutiny than many privately owned rivals over the availability of games in unregulated or illegal markets.

• DNB Carnegie analysts noted Candle Lake is not required to attach a premium to its offer.

• Under Swedish rules, however, the bid must be pitched at least as high as the highest price the investment vehicle paid for Evolution shares during the preceding six months.

• Evolution’s shares rose 7% in Stockholm following news that Dart had crossed the threshold.

• The shares reached their lowest point in February when its Q4 earnings revealed that net revenues fell 3.7% YoY, while adj. EBITDA declined 6.1% YoY.

• Its Q2 earnings earlier this month were better received after it showed a broad but incomplete recovery, with Europe returning to sequential growth but with Asia remaining problematic.

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Nevada draws a line

Hard border: Nevada has forced Kalshi to abandon its homegrown geolocation system and adopt a third-party, multi-source geofence after investigators repeatedly traded prohibited contracts from inside the state.

• Under an agreement filed with the First Judicial District Court, Kalshi must have the replacement system operating by August 12.

• Missing that deadline would trigger a $120,000 penalty for every day implementation remains incomplete, while the company must provide periodic progress reports to the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB).

Well, that didn’t work: The agreement resolves, for now, the NGCB’s attempt to have Kalshi held in contempt. A May 18 preliminary injunction prohibited the exchange from offering or facilitating sports, election and entertainment-related event contracts to anyone physically located in Nevada.

• Yet Board investigators continued to enter those contracts after the order.

• Kalshi acknowledged in the stipulation that investigators succeeded despite its IP-based and residency-based trading blocks.

• Its earlier approach initially relied on customers’ registered addresses and later an internally developed IP-based system.

• Nevada argued that the latter was unreliable, noting that IP addresses do not necessarily identify a user’s state and can be circumvented. Investigators said they traded without using VPNs.

More to the point: The outcome gives Nevada something more operationally meaningful than another declaration that sports event contracts constitute unlicensed wagering: a firm technical standard, an implementation deadline and an automatically accruing sanction.

• The Board said the third-party solution must identify and prevent anyone within Nevada’s geographic boundaries from accessing the covered markets.

• “The court required Kalshi to stop offering covered event contracts in Nevada, and Kalshi violated that order,” said NGCB chair Mike Dreitzer, adding that the agreement would secure compliance or expose the company to “stiff penalties.”

CME draws the line

Keeping out of the fray: CME Group chair and CEO Terry Duffy has reiterated the exchange operator’s cautious approach to prediction markets, arguing that many sports-related event contracts amount to gambling and could ultimately become the subject of a US Supreme Court ruling.

• Speaking during CME’s Q2 earnings call, Duffy said the group would continue to concentrate on contracts tied to economic and market outcomes rather than expand aggressively into sports.

• “There seems to be a lot of activity,” Duffy said of prediction markets. “We’ll try to keep the sports out of it because I’ve been pretty public about this.”

• “A lot of these prediction markets on sports are gambling, and I think that is going to find its way to the Supreme Court, and that is not something we want to be a part of participating in right now.”

This. Is. Gambling: Duffy also questioned whether some sports contracts complied with the market integrity standards expected of federally regulated derivatives.

• “I think a lot of these contracts are susceptible to manipulation when they list some of these small parlays and things of that nature, and those are not markets,” he said. “Those are gambling.”

• Instead, Duffy said CME would focus on “predictions on economic outcomes and things of that nature.”

Awks: How these comments sit with prediction market partner FanDuel is at this point moot. In August last year, the pair announced what they called a “groundbreaking alliance” that would see FanDuel launch event contracts on a number of financial markets, including leading index benchmarks, the price of commodities, cryptocurrencies and economic indicators.

• Asked at the time whether this might include sports events markets or political markets, a Flutter spokesperson offered no further comment.

Underplaying it: More than 140,000 accounts traded CME event contracts during the second quarter, an increase of approximately 13% from Q1. Average daily volume exceeded four million contracts, representing QoQ growth of around 40%.

• However, CFO Lynne Fitzpatrick said prediction market activity had not yet reached the point at which CME could expect meaningful market data revenue.

• “I think that’s still a bit of a ways off in terms of monetizing anything related to these markets, given the level of volume,” she said.

• “We’d want to see that really have a lot more seasoning before we would start talking about that.”

Oiling the wheels: Duffy also raised concerns about prediction market contracts linked to commodity prices while discussing CME’s dispute with the CFTC over its proposed round-the-clock oil contract.

• “We also have prediction markets that have prices of oil that trade 24/7,” he said.

• Duffy questioned how regulators could regard those contracts differently from CME’s smaller oil product.

• “We are trying to run contracts here that are meaningful for commerce, that we think are critical for commerce.”

+More predictions

• Netflix and chill: Kalshi has threatened legal action against Netflix, alleging a trailer for documentary The Prediction Games contains fabricated material and falsely suggests trades occurred in Nevada in breach of a court order. The company demanded the trailer’s removal and a retraction. Netflix’s film, examining the rapid growth and controversies surrounding Kalshi and Polymarket, aired on Sunday.

• Kalshi has suffered another state-level legal setback after a King County Superior Court judge granted Washington a preliminary injunction against the prediction market operator. The court found AG Nick Brown was likely to prove Kalshi operates an illegal gambling business and violates consumer-protection laws, while its continued activity could substantially harm consumers.

• New Mexico: Four tribes have renewed their request for an injunction against Kalshi, arguing its sports event contracts violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and tribal compacts granting exclusivity over betting on tribal lands. Responding to Kalshi’s dismissal motion, the tribes rejected its claim that CFTC oversight preempts tribal law and said its contracts constitute sports betting available to under-21s.

• Lobbying: Prediction market operators and the US casino industry are sharply increasing their lobbying expenditure as Congress considers how event contracts should be regulated. Kalshi spent $990,000 on direct lobbying during the first half of 2026, nearly matching the $1m it spent throughout 2025, according to federal filings reviewed by CNBC.

• PMAGA hat: Nevada representatives Steven Horsford and Mark Amodei have introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would bar federally registered exchanges from listing sports and casino-style event contracts. The lawmakers said the bill would close a regulatory loophole allowing platforms to bypass state gaming oversight, licensing and consumer protections.

• Just the ticket: The North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries has called for urgent regulatory clarification of prediction markets, arguing sports and other event contracts are wagers and should be licensed accordingly. Separately, The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States has unanimously adopted a resolution asserting states should retain authority over gambling regulation as prediction markets expand.

+More

• When the Fon stops: Andrea Pirlo said he is no longer a candidate to coach the Italian national football team following political criticism of his ambassadorial role with Russian betting operator Fonbet. Politicians highlighted the company’s links to events involving Ukraine war veterans and pro-Kremlin figures. Pirlo insisted the relationship was solely commercial and sporting.

• Most irregular: An independent Council of Europe-linked body identified seven potential betting irregularities during the 2026 World Cup, contradicting FIFA’s assertion that no suspicious activity was detected. The Group of Copenhagen flagged unusual markets involving red cards, VAR decisions and £3.5m wagered on Cape Verde avoiding defeat against Spain. However, no match-fixing was alleged, with atypical odds and hedging among possible explanations.

• France: The ANJ has fined an unnamed major online betting operator €500,000 for failing to identify and adequately support high-risk customers. An investigation found 29 players were incorrectly assessed: six went unidentified and 23 were placed in lower-risk tiers, while 25 received insufficient interventions. The company disputed ANJ’s methodology and legal clarity but has two months to appeal the July ruling.

• The UK: the new government led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham is yet to confirm whether Baroness Fiona Twycross will retain her gambling brief despite remaining in her position within the Department for Culture, Media and Sport. Lisa Nandy was reappointed as Secretary of State for the department.

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Tabcorp fine

Bad call: Tabcorp has paid more than A$2.7m ($1.88m) in penalties after the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) found the operator breached spam and telemarketing laws across thousands of customer contacts.

• The regulator said that between February 2024 and June 2025, Tabcorp’s TAB business made 351 calls to VIP customers whose numbers appeared on the Do Not Call Register without consent.

• It also made 82 calls outside permitted hours and almost 4,000 calls in which it failed to properly identify itself and/or explain the purpose of the contact.

Sending out an SMS: Separate action followed Tabcorp’s self-report in 2025 that, during a 16-day period, it sent more than 217,000 marketing emails and text messages to customers who had unsubscribed from the relevant marketing channels.

• ACMA noted those customers had withdrawn consent for particular channels rather than opted out of all marketing.

• Authority member Samantha Yorke said the “scale and range” of the violations indicated serious weaknesses in Tabcorp’s compliance systems.

• She said customer decisions to join the Do Not Call Register or unsubscribe must be respected, particularly because gambling marketing carries heightened risks of financial loss and psychological harm.

Spamalot: The case represents ACMA’s second spam enforcement action against Tabcorp. The company paid more than A$4m in 2024 for noncompliant SMS and WhatsApp messages sent to VIP customers, meaning its two penalties now exceed A$6.7m.

Calendar

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Trust issues

Little triggers: The UK Gambling Commission has still not proven the financial risk assessments (FRA) system it wants operators to use is accurate, consistent or reliable enough to support decisions affecting customers, says Grainne Hurst, CEO of the Betting & Gaming Council (BGC).

• The Commission said last week it was pressing on with the contentious checks.

• Talking to C+M, Hurst said the regulator’s own pilot exposed a flaw at the heart of the model: namely, the same customer could receive different assessments depending on which credit reference agency (CRA) was used.

• In some cases, she pointed out, “a large number of customers” could have different scoring across all three CRAs.

If you get it wrong, you’ll get it right next time: Automation is not the same thing as accuracy, Hurst argued. A check can happen in the background and still produce the wrong answer, with the friction coming later via restrictions, interventions, document requests or open banking demands.

• “These checks cannot be described as genuinely frictionless if they produce unreliable outcomes, lead to unnecessary account restrictions or ultimately result in customers being asked to provide documents or open banking information,” she said.

Mystery loves company: The Commission has presented FRAs as a way of replacing document-heavy affordability checks with credit-reference data. But the BGC’s point is that an unreliable frictionless check is not a solution; it is a new regulatory trigger wrapped in a black box.

• The BGC’s suspicions are aggravated by the fact the Commission has not published the full pilot evaluation.

• Hurst said neither the sector nor the public has seen the evidence needed to justify checks that could ultimately affect hundreds of thousands of customers.

• The regulator is moving from pilot to implementation while the industry is still being asked to trust a conclusion rather than interrogate the evidence behind it.

Giving an inch: The Commission has sought to blunt the criticism by delaying implementation, raising the initial thresholds and moving to a staged rollout.

• Stage one will apply only at very high spend, with most over-25 customers triggering an FRA only after £5,000 of net deposits in a rolling 24-hour period.

• The eventual threshold is £1,000 in 24 hours or £3,000 over 90 days for those aged 25 and over, with lower thresholds for younger customers.

Begrudge match: Hurst accepts the change is a concession. “The fact it has delayed implementation, raised thresholds and abandoned its original timetable is a clear recognition that those concerns were well founded,” she said.

• But the BGC’s view is that a higher threshold does not cure a faulty mechanism.

• “Simply slightly reducing the number of customers to undergo an FRA but leaving the results as erroneous at lower thresholds is not success,” she added.

Goalposts on the move: The Commission has said there will be no enforcement action in the early stages for failing to act following an FRA, while making it clear existing license obligations still apply. That is unlikely to give operators comfort and it has not removed the gray zone, but merely shifted it.

• Operators will still have to decide what to do with an adverse or ambiguous CRA return.

• Ignore it because the pilot evidence is incomplete; restrict the account to protect themselves; or ask for documents, creating the friction FRAs are designed to avoid.

• The BGC’s answer is that the Commission should not put operators or customers in that position until it has shown the checks will not wrongly identify customers as financially vulnerable.

Model misbehavior: The ever-present risk is the black market, with Hurst claiming unnecessary friction will drive customers towards illegal operators. Modeling based on the original £2,000-over-90-days proposal estimated 74,400 customers could migrate to the illegal market taking ~£624m of GGY with them.

• The Commission has now increased the 90-day threshold to £3,000, but Hurst said it has not published updated modeling showing how those displacement estimates change.

• Without that modeling, the Commission is asking licensed operators to implement a measure whose consumer-protection benefits remain asserted.

• Meanwhile, the risks to channelization, racing funding and tax leakage remain under-analyzed.

Drop the pilot: Hurst was careful to say the BGC is not opposing protection for vulnerable customers. The sector has implemented more than 60 reforms following the Gambling Act review, while operators continue to invest in identifying signs of harm.

• But she argued there has been no evaluation of whether those existing measures, including stake limits and financial vulnerability checks, have addressed the concerns that first led to FRAs.

• The BGC is asking that the Commission publish the full pilot evidence, prove the data is accurate and consistent, and show ordinary customers will not be wrongly identified or pushed through unnecessary friction.

• Until then, the Commission’s “frictionless” claim will continue to be read by operators not as reassurance but as assertion.

UK sponsorship consultation

• Getting shirty: The UK government has opened an eight-week consultation on banning gambling sponsorship and advertising by operators not licensed by the Gambling Commission. Proposed secondary legislation would make participation in such arrangements a criminal offence, covering physical assets including kits, stadium boards, programs and venue naming across all sectors. Online advertising is excluded. The government prefers implementation in August 2027, although existing contracts could alternatively run until August 2028. Responses close September 9.

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+More

• CFTC Michigan rejection: The CFTC has rejected Kalshi’s emergency request to suspend and refund open sports event contracts in Michigan, saying the action could undermine market integrity and harm traders. Kalshi sought approval after a court ordered it to stop offering sports contracts in Michigan by August 12, finding they constituted unregulated online sports betting. The exchange argued geofencing and refunds were necessary to comply without breaching CFTC rules. Kalshi reportedly proceeded with refunds regardless, potentially exposing it to federal regulatory penalties or further enforcement action.

• Polymarket block: The Czech Republic’s Ministry of Finance has ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket, saying the prediction market offers gambling services without the required local license. The action adds the Czech Republic to a growing group of jurisdictions restricting the platform or prediction markets, including Australia, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, New Zealand and Spain, amid mounting international regulatory scrutiny worldwide.

• Nevada: The Nevada Gaming Control Board has recommended easing progressive jackpot regulations by cutting the minimum progression rate from 0.4% to 0.1% of total handle. Proposed by the Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers, the change reflects larger handle pools across wide-area and multi-site systems. It would permit casinos to link progressive jackpots with casinos in other states, subject to commission approval.

• Publication note: Compliance+More will be taking a week off next week. Headline news will be covered in Earnings+More before C+M returns on Tuesday, July 28.

• Chief Compliance Officer – London

• Head of Payments – Malta

• Internal Security Integrity Lead – Malta

Evolution pays up

An expensive slap on the wrist: Evolution will pay £4.75m to settle a UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) license review over the availability of its games through unlicensed offshore operators.

• The settlement concludes the review, initiated in December 2024, which Evolution had warned could result in outcomes including the suspension or revocation of its UK supplier license.

• The announcement triggered a share-price fall of more than 10% at the time. The shares nudged up a couple of points in yesterday’s trading.

Hands up: Evolution said the settlement primarily related to its content being offered to UK consumers by two operators across six websites without UK licenses. This breached the company’s terms of supply, while the operators had “actively evaded” the restrictions Evolution had in place.

• The company stressed that the 18-month investigation found no broader pattern of unlicensed access to its games in the UK.

• Evolution terminated its commercial relationships with both operators immediately after identifying the websites and has since introduced enhanced ring-fencing measures alongside other technical and procedural controls.

Up with this we will not put: CEO Martin Carlesund said it was “not acceptable” that the six sites had offered Evolution content in the regulated UK market. He added that the supplier did not want traffic from unlicensed operators and would act quickly whenever such activity was detected.

• The review followed warnings from the UKGC that licensed operators should conduct greater due diligence to ensure their suppliers were not directly or indirectly supporting black-market activity.

• Evolution had previously said it was cooperating fully and noted the UK generated only around 3% of group revenue.

• The Commission has yet to publish its own account of the settlement or provide further details of the regulatory findings.

Brazilian rules

Banning order: Brazil has introduced advertising rules for fixed-odds betting that prohibit promotions for unlicensed operators, marketing to minors and claims presenting gambling as a source of income or financial recovery.

• An ordinance published last week applies not only to operators but to individuals or companies producing, sponsoring, distributing, broadcasting or promoting betting advertising.

• Participants in the advertising chain must check an operator against the list maintained by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting before carrying its material.

• They must retain its name, CNPJ tax registration and authorization number, and display its identity and licensing status.

Can’t touch this: Advertisements cannot include the brands, logos, social media accounts, links or promotional codes of unauthorized operators, or show winning bets and prizes.

• Betting cannot be presented as an investment, easy money, a solution to financial difficulties or a means of recovering losses.

• Urgent calls to wager, encouragement of excessive play, and misleading claims about winning probabilities or the role of skill are also barred.

The ordinance prohibits betting predictions, strategies or analysis that encourage wagers on a market when placed close to sports editorial content.

• An exemption covers incidental appearances of betting brands or sponsorships during broadcasts of overseas sporting events, provided they are not highlighted or commercially exploited.

Leave them kids alone: Any advertising directed, directly or indirectly, at children or adolescents is deemed abusive. Promotions cannot feature under-18s, use youth-culture content, or appear in schools, medical facilities or psychological care centers.

• App stores and operating systems must prevent minors’ accounts accessing betting apps or apps without age verification, while social platforms must block gambling advertising from minors.

• The National Consumer Secretariat will enforce the provisions under consumer law, while the betting regulator will supervise licensed operators.

• Breaches may also lead to suspension or cancellation from Brazil’s national register of advertising media agents after an administrative process.

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Amazon settlement

Primed: Amazon has agreed to a proposed $201m settlement of a class action alleging it facilitated illegal gambling through social casino applications distributed via its Appstore, although the structure means the judgment would not be enforced against the company.

• The case was filed in November 2023 by Nevada resident Steven Horn in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington.

• It alleges Amazon violated Washington gambling laws and its Consumer Protection Act by serving as the exclusive processor of payments for virtual casino chips and retaining a 30% commission.

• Amazon denies wrongdoing and the settlement remains subject to court approval.

Delivery driver: The proposed judgment represents 30% of the money class members spent on the apps. Rather than collect it from Amazon, the class would receive control of a litigation trust empowered to pursue 32 social casino developers through Amazon’s contractual indemnification rights.

• Amazon would contribute $2.5m towards class notices, administration and initial costs.

• Plaintiffs said the arrangement could recover a proportion of consumers’ losses in line with previous settlements involving game developers.

• It also preserves claims against the developers, which would become the source of compensation.

• Amazon said developers would be required to improve the customer experience and ensure their apps comply with applicable laws, warning that non-compliant products could be removed.

Not the whole package: The agreement would settle all claims against Amazon while shifting the pursuit further along the distribution chain. It adds to legal pressure on technology platforms over their role in processing payments and distributing social casino and sweepstakes products.

• Separate litigation remains pending against Apple, Google and Meta, including claims brought under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act.

• The settlement therefore avoids a determination of Amazon’s liability, but leaves unresolved when app stores and payment intermediaries can be held responsible for unlawful gambling products offered by third-party developers.

Calendar

• Jul 22-24: NCPG Annual Conference, Nashville

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

Subscribe now

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An +More Media publication.

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Monkey do

For those about to Rock: Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction to create a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets, offering the sector a third route between gambling and financial regulation.

• We salute you: But the initiative prompts an obvious question: why does an activity already treated elsewhere as betting or a financial derivative require its own category?

We are the dealers: Gibraltar has formally launched what it describes as the world’s first bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, establishing the activity as a distinct statutory category under its Gambling Act 2025.

• The framework adopts what the government called an “activity-based and risk-based approach.”

• It covers market integrity, participant protection, financial crime, governance, operational resilience and the objective settlement of contracts.

Stand up and be counted: Every event contract must be approved and certified by Gibraltar’s gambling authority. Contracts must be clearly worded, capable of objective settlement, resistant to manipulation and consistent with the regime’s regulatory objectives.

• For what you are about to receive: Operators must maintain systems addressing market manipulation, insider dealing and the misuse of confidential information.

• The regulator can also restrict contracts it considers inappropriate or contrary to the public interest, including markets involving criminal conduct, death, serious injury, terrorism, war or armed conflict.

• Further requirements cover conflicts of interest, the safeguarding of client assets, AML and sanctions compliance, financial resources and wind-down planning.

• An independent supervisory panel has been established to oversee implementation.

We’ll give you everything you need: Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar’s minister for justice, trade and industry, said via LinkedIn the regime represented the fulfilment of a commitment made only months ago after he identified prediction markets as a potential source of economic diversification.

• ’Cause rock has got the right of way: “Today, Gibraltar becomes the first jurisdiction in the world to adopt a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets,” he wrote.

• Feetham said Gibraltar’s new gambling legislation enabled prediction markets to be licensed as betting exchanges.

• He added the accompanying regulations reflected months of engagement with operators, investors and other industry participants.

We ain’t no legend, ain’t no cause: The first operator is expected to be licensed under the new regime shortly. Gibraltar has also granted approval in principle to a second applicant and expects to issue another approval in principle within weeks.

• We’re just livin’ for today: “This is more than a new regulatory framework; it is a statement of intent,” Feetham said.

• “My ambition is to position Gibraltar as a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and for the development of new markets underpinned by high regulatory standards.”

We’re just livin’ for today ADI Predictstreet already holds a Gibraltar betting-intermediary license issued under the previous Gambling Act, while US betting marketplace WagerWire has received approval to launch.

• WagerWire is targeting the introduction of B2B and B2C products around the beginning of the NFL preseason and the European football season in August.

We rock at dawn, on the front line: What remains up for debate is whether prediction markets need a dedicated regulatory category at all. Across most jurisdictions, the available answers have fallen into two familiar camps.

• A contract allowing customers to stake money on the outcome of a sporting, political or other uncertain event is treated as gambling and therefore requires the relevant betting license.

• Alternatively, its construction as a tradable contract places it within financial services and derivatives regulation.

Like a bolt right out of the blue: Gibraltar is effectively offering a third answer: prediction markets are sufficiently distinct to justify their own authorization, operating requirements and supervisory framework, albeit housed within gambling legislation.

• That distinction may provide greater regulatory certainty for applicants, but it does not necessarily resolve the classification question in any market those operators intend to serve.

• A Gibraltar license cannot determine whether a contract is gambling, a financial instrument or a prohibited product in another jurisdiction.

Pick up your balls and load up your cannon: The European direction of travel is more restrictive. As C+M noted last week, the European Securities and Markets Authority recently reminded firms that certain yes-or-no event contracts may qualify as financial instruments under MiFID II.

• Where an event contract is a financial instrument and provides either a fixed payout or no payout according to a binary outcome, existing measures prohibiting the offering of binary options to retail clients can apply.

• Giving the product a different commercial name does not change its legal characteristics.

Oh, for those who give and those who take: Separately, gambling regulators from nine European jurisdictions – Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland – have coordinated action against unlicensed prediction market platforms.

• Several European authorities have already treated the products as gambling, blocked operators or ordered them to withdraw.

• These illustrate the problem facing Gibraltar’s experiment: if an event contract is gambling, it can already be supervised through gambling legislation.

• If it is a financial derivative, financial services rules apply and retail distribution may be prohibited.

• Creating a separate domestic category does not remove either determination when the product crosses a border.

Heads will roll and rock tonight: Feetham acknowledged that there was “no settled consensus” internationally over how prediction markets should be characterized. Gibraltar’s answer, he said, was to provide “an additional regulatory option” capable of supporting innovation while maintaining market integrity and participant protection.

• Economically, Gibraltar is looking to diversify a gambling sector heavily exposed to the UK market and to demonstrate that it can move faster than larger jurisdictions when new digital products emerge.

• Feetham said the framework would attract investment, generate high-value employment and give a developing global industry regulatory certainty.

Doing your time and those on the rank: But the regulatory proposition will ultimately be tested outside Gibraltar. The framework may establish credible standards for companies, governance, custody, surveillance and contract approval.

• What it cannot provide is passporting into countries that regard the same contracts as unlicensed betting or retail binary options.

• Gibraltar has therefore answered the question of how it wishes to regulate prediction markets.

• The larger question of whether the rest of the world recognizes prediction markets as a separate activity in the first place remains far from settled.

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Polymarket margin

It’s, er, coming home: Polymarket is seeking to add margin trading to its US prediction markets offering, with Bloomberg saying the company has filed an application with the National Futures Association to operate as a futures commission merchant (FCM) via its affiliate Coming Home.

• The filing, dated July 3, would be a necessary step in Polymarket’s effort to let users open positions without putting up the full capital amount upfront.

• The company would also need CFTC approval for rulebook changes allowing non-fully collateralized trading.

Follow the leader: Kalshi has already moved in this direction, securing its own FCM license earlier this year as part of a wider push to scale event-contract trading and support more advanced products such as perpetual futures.

• Bloomberg said Kalshi generated more than $5.5bn in perpetuals volume within two weeks of launch, largely through contracts linked to crypto tokens.

You name it: For Polymarket, the application comes amid rapid growth. Weekly notional volume on the platform reportedly reached a record of more than $4bn in June, but the next phase is likely to depend on whether platforms can attract institutional capital while satisfying regulators that their controls are robust.

• That issue is becoming increasingly sensitive. Polymarket’s use of a public blockchain means trades are traceable, even if accounts are pseudonymous.

• Bloomberg noted US margin products would require additional identity checks, including employer information, adding a further compliance layer as prediction markets seek to move further into the financial mainstream.

+More predictions

• Italy’s Customs and Monopolies Agency has again blocked access to Polymarket, placing the prediction market on its blacklist of unauthorized gambling sites, Agimeg reported. The platform had previously secured a temporary reopening after challenging an earlier ban before the Lazio administrative court, although no ruling was made on its legal status. The renewed action could also raise questions over Polymarket’s sponsorship of Serie A club Lazio.

• The Netherlands: Meanwhile, the Dutch gambling regulator, Kansspelautoriteit, has rejected Polymarket’s appeal against an earlier ruling that classified the prediction market as an online gambling operator rather than a financial platform. The regulator said Polymarket is operating without a Dutch gaming license and must withdraw from the market immediately. Polymarket had argued that its cryptocurrency-based platform facilitates only peer-to-peer trading, not gambling.

• Life of Brian: Former US Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair nominee Brian Quintenz has joined the Coalition for Prediction Markets as an adviser. Quintenz had been selected to lead the CFTC before President Donald Trump withdrew his nomination and named Michael Selig instead.

• California: Three tribes urged the Ninth Circuit to revive their injunction bid against Kalshi, arguing its sports event contracts constitute online sports betting and violate tribal gaming compacts and the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). Kalshi maintained it does not operate on tribal lands, cannot be sued as a private entity under IGRA and offers financial market contracts rather than gambling products.

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• Alberta has officially opened its regulated online sports-betting and casino market with 50 platforms from 32 operators, including BetMGM, bet365, Caesars, DraftKings and FanDuel. Suppliers also highlighted their presence, including IGT, Aristocrat Interactive and Hacksaw Gaming.

• The Massachusetts Gaming Commission has requested a study into casino advertising aimed at Asian communities, examining whether operators use predatory marketing tactics. The move follows The Boston Globe reports alleging casinos specifically target Asian residents in Greater Boston. Properties cited included Wynn Resorts’ Encore Boston Harbor, Bally’s Twin River, Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods, although several are located outside Massachusetts.

• Apollo Global Management faces a $7.2m fine under a proposed settlement with the Nevada Gaming Control Board over illegal bookmaker Mathew Bowyer’s betting at The Venetian. Bowyer wagered at the property between 2019 and 2021 under Las Vegas Sands ownership. Apollo inherited liabilities after acquiring the casino, including responsibility for inadequate due diligence. Final approval is expected in August.

• The NCAA has opened an inquiry into Cincinnati over what the university knew about former quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s prohibited sports betting, ESPN reported. The move follows claims from Sorsby’s agent that officials knew about the activity, which Cincinnati denies. Sorsby reportedly wagered about $90,000 over four years and was ruled permanently ineligible for the 2026 season under NCAA gambling rules.

• Malaysian police dismantled an alleged online betting syndicate linked to the FIFA World Cup after raiding a Kuala Lumpur office and arresting 11 suspects. Authorities seized cryptocurrency credits worth about $323,380, believed to represent bets on World Cup matches, plus MYR18,817 ($4,600) in cash. The operation, allegedly led by a Canadian, targeted customers in South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong markets.

EGBA’s Lithuania compliant

What’s in your wallet: The European Gaming and Betting Association (EGBA) has filed a complaint with the Bank of Lithuania against electronic money institution Walletto, alleging it provided payment services to online casinos operating without the required local licenses.

• First reported by Bloomberg, the complaint represents a potentially important shift in enforcement strategy.

• Regulators and licensed operators have traditionally focused on website blocking, advertising restrictions and action against individual gambling brands.

• The EGBA is now seeking to disrupt the supporting infrastructure that allows offshore operators to accept deposits and process withdrawals.

“Illegal operators flourish by exploiting legitimate financial channels and the mainstream payment networks that consumers rely on every day,” said EGBA secretary general Maarten Haijer.

• “Our aim is simple: to leave them no room to manoeuvre, and to cut off the payment channels they use to reach European consumers,” he added.

Wild at heart: The trade body alleges Walletto’s activities breached EU and Lithuanian AML requirements. Walletto did not respond to Bloomberg’s requests for comment.

• An investigator appointed by EGBA reportedly deposited £50 with iWild Casino in Denmark and €100 with Frank Casino in Poland, where neither operator held a local license. Both payments were allegedly processed by Walletto.

• In the Danish test, the payment reportedly used an unclear transaction reference and did not carry the merchant category code required by Visa and Mastercard for gambling transactions.

• EGBA argued this indicated deficiencies in merchant due diligence and transaction classification.

Seen it all before: Visa told Bloomberg that it prohibits illegal activity on its network, while stressing that financial institutions are responsible for onboarding and monitoring merchants. Mastercard said it works with institutions connecting merchants to its network when potential unlawful activity is identified.

• The Bank of Lithuania declined to comment on the complaint or any potential supervisory investigation.

• However, the regulator confirmed it had previously identified weaknesses in Walletto’s AML controls, transaction monitoring and customer due diligence.

• An April settlement included a €290,000 penalty and an obligation to address the deficiencies.

Progress report: Separately, EGBA published its 2026 annual activity report last week, which Haijer hailed as a landmark year following the “most impactful European Safer Gambling Week yet,” with the approval of the first European standard on markers of harm, new standards on influencer marketing and continued progress under its AML guidelines.

Calendar

• Jul 22-24: NCPG Annual Conference, Nashville

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Pressing on

FRA-ed knot: The UK Gambling Commission has confirmed it will introduce financial risk assessments for high-spending online customers, but has opted for a staged rollout beginning at higher thresholds than those planned for the final regime.

• The first phase will apply only to the largest operators and will be triggered when customers aged 25 and over exceed £5,000 in net deposits during a rolling 24-hour period.

• For customers under 25, whom the regulator classifies as a higher-risk group, the initial threshold will be £2,500 over the same period.

Frictional accounts: The Commission said this level of spending is reached by fewer than 0.5% of customers. It has not set a start date, saying the timetable will be confirmed after implementation groups involving operators, credit reference agencies and other stakeholders have been established over the summer.

• The decision follows consultation and a pilot testing whether credit reference agency (CRA) data could identify high-spending customers experiencing significant financial difficulties without requiring payslips, bank statements or other documents.

• According to the Commission, 97% of customers spending above the proposed thresholds could be assessed “easily and frictionlessly,” compared with the 80% anticipated in the government’s 2023 Gambling Act review White Paper.

• It estimates that fewer than 3% of accounts will undergo an assessment and fewer than one in 1,000 will be unable to receive one through the standard process.

• In those exceptional cases, operators will be expected to confirm the customer’s identity and may need to use other methods, including open banking or document requests.

Scoreless: The assessments will not examine income or calculate what an individual can afford to gamble. Instead, they will use CRA information to identify signs of current or worsening financial difficulty, such as defaults, significant arrears, debt-management plans or bankruptcy.

• The checks will not affect customers’ credit scores.

Nanny: The Commission said high-spending gamblers are between two and four times more likely than the general population to have a debt management plan and between two and five times more likely to have recorded a default during the previous 12 months.

• Without intervention, financially vulnerable customers could continue receiving gambling marketing and promotional offers.

• Operators will be expected to consider the assessment alongside everything else known about the customer and take proportionate action where necessary.

• Interventions could include reducing marketing, encouraging or imposing deposit limits, or stronger measures where the overall evidence indicates greater risk.

Interim manager: However, the regulator has offered the industry some enforcement protection during the opening stages. It will not take action solely because an operator failed to act following an assessment, although all existing social responsibility and license requirements will continue to apply.

• That approach creates an implementation and learning period in which the Commission, operators and credit agencies can refine the system before lower thresholds are introduced.

• At full implementation, assessments will be triggered for customers aged 25 and over who deposit more than £1,000 net in 24 hours or £3,000 over a rolling 90-day period.

• The equivalent thresholds for customers under 25 will be £750 over 24 hours or £2,000 over 90 days. Thresholds for interim stages have yet to be determined.

Balancing act: Acting UKGC CEO Sarah Gardner said the model would allow operators to support high-spending customers in financial difficulty while reducing unnecessary document requests for customers who are not at risk.

• Gambling minister Baroness Twycross welcomed the phased approach but said it must protect vulnerable people without creating unnecessary burdens for consumers or the industry.

Naysayers: The Betting & Gaming Council (BGC) said it was “deeply disappointed and frustrated” that the Commission had decided to proceed despite concerns raised by operators, racing, parliamentarians and customers.

• BGC CEO Grainne Hurst argued that delaying implementation, raising the opening thresholds and abandoning the original timetable amounted to an acknowledgement that industry concerns were justified.

• She said questions surrounding the reliability of credit-reference data, consumer impact and the practical operation of the assessments remained unresolved.

Inconsistent: The BGC claimed the pilot produced inconsistent results between credit reference agencies, meaning the same customer could potentially receive different outcomes depending on the provider.

• It also criticized the Commission for proceeding before publishing a full evaluation of the pilot.

• Hurst challenged the regulator’s description of the process as frictionless, warning that incorrect flags could lead to account restrictions, document requests or demands for open-banking access.

• She repeated the industry’s argument that intrusive or unreliable checks could push customers towards unlicensed operators.

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• Coolbet will cease operations in Alberta ahead of the province’s regulated commercial iGaming launch on July 13. The operator has stopped new registrations and deposits, with platform access ending July 12. Customers have until August 31 to withdraw balances. Alberta requires would-be licensees to end unregulated activity, with enforcement expected against gray-market operators continuing without approval after launch.

• Konami Gaming has become the first gaming equipment manufacturer to submit a manufacturer license application to Japan’s Casino Regulatory Commission. Konami said the early filings reflect its commitment to Japan’s regulatory framework ahead of the country’s first planned integrated resort, due to open in 2030.

• Star Entertainment will receive an A$33m ($22.9m) rebate from the Australian Commissioner of Taxation under a court settlement linked to its discontinued casino junket operations. The agreement also requires Star to pay an A$55m fee for the year ending June 30, 2026. The dispute covered tax assessments and rebate claims across the 2013-20 period after prolonged disagreement with authorities.

• Moving home: Betr will move its Australian operations and headquarters from the Northern Territory to Tasmania after securing a new five-year license from the Tasmanian Liquor and Gaming Commission. The sportsbook said Tasmania better supports its long-term strategy and wagering priorities. Once the transition is complete, Betr intends to terminate its Northern Territory license, shifting its regulatory base to Tasmania.

• Chief Technology Officer – Remote in Europe

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NC prediction tax

Tax capture: North Carolina is set to become the latest state to tax prediction market activity after Gov. Josh Stein signed a $34bn budget for fiscal 2026 that includes a 6% levy on the net trading fee revenue generated by platform operators.

• The measure places North Carolina alongside Kentucky and Illinois in attempting to capture tax revenue from the fast-growing prediction markets sector.

• Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade contracts linked to the outcomes of real-world events, including elections and sporting contests.

Squeeze: The tax forms part of Senate Bill 257, which also raises North Carolina’s sports-betting tax rate from 18% to 23%. The budget additionally gives state revenue officials new authority to audit sports-bettors’ records.

• The package was agreed following more than a year of negotiations between lawmakers over how to balance the state budget.

• Republican legislative leaders announced a compromise last week amid warnings that North Carolina could face a combined $2.8bn deficit over the next two years.

• State officials are seeking additional revenue as reductions in personal and corporate income taxes continue to take effect.

Reckless: The final agreement delayed some future tax cuts but retained scheduled corporate tax reductions opposed by Stein.

• Although the governor signed the budget, he criticized what he described as “reckless pre-programmed tax cuts for corporate shareholders and the wealthy.”

• His office did not comment specifically on the prediction markets provision.

North Carolina’s move comes amid a wider legal and regulatory dispute over whether event contracts should be treated as federally regulated derivatives or as gambling products subject to state licensing and taxation.

• Kalshi filed a lawsuit against Illinois in June after that state incorporated prediction markets into its sports-wagering tax regime.

• Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket immediately commented on North Carolina’s new levy.

• The measure adds to growing state efforts to impose taxes and regulatory controls on prediction market operators despite their federal oversight claims.

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NJ SCOTUS push

Let’s push things forward: New Jersey has taken the first formal step toward asking the US Supreme Court to review its defeat in the state’s jurisdictional battle with Kalshi.

• The Supreme Court docket shows Justice Samuel Alito granted state officials an extension until August 4 to file a petition for a writ of certiorari, although New Jersey had sought an additional 60 days.

• The filing does not mean the justices will hear the case, but it confirms the state is actively considering an appeal.

Swap shop: The potential petition follows the Third Circuit Court of Appeals’ 2-1 ruling in April upholding a preliminary injunction that prevents New Jersey’s Division of Gaming Enforcement from applying state gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports event contracts.

• The majority concluded the contracts qualify as “swaps” traded on a CFTC-licensed designated contract market, placing them within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.

• It found the Commodity Exchange Act likely preempted New Jersey’s sports-betting laws and constitutional restrictions.

Minority report: Judge Jane Roth dissented, arguing Kalshi’s markets were virtually indistinguishable from wagers offered by regulated sportsbooks and that gambling has traditionally fallen within state authority.

• She rejected the majority’s view that registering as a derivatives exchange transformed sportsbook-style bets into federally protected financial products.

New Jersey’s extension application points to similar disputes moving through the Fourth, Sixth and Ninth Circuits, as well as the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court.

• State lawyers said forthcoming decisions could establish a split between courts and strengthen the case for Supreme Court intervention.

• They also claimed that more than 11 district-court decisions had taken an approach contrary to the Third Circuit majority.

A widening gyre: The stakes extend well beyond New Jersey. A Supreme Court ruling for Kalshi could cement a federal framework allowing CFTC-regulated exchanges to offer sports contracts without state gaming licenses, taxes or product restrictions.

• A ruling for New Jersey could preserve states’ ability to treat those contracts as gambling and impose the same controls applied to sportsbooks.

• For now, the immediate date is August 4, when New Jersey must decide whether to file its petition.

+More predictions

• Kalshi has appealed to the Second Circuit after Southern District of New York Judge Analisa Torres denied its request for a preliminary injunction blocking state gambling enforcement. Torres found New York’s gambling laws, as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts, were not preempted by federal commodities law. The decision keeps state action alive while the case proceeds.

Calendar

• Jul 8-11: NCLGS summer meeting, San Diego

• Jul 22-24: NCPG Annual Conference, Nashville

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Sep 29-Oct 1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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An +More Media publication.

For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.

Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

Learn more at www.yaspa.com

Binary code

Will you still want me when I’m nothing new? The EU’s financial markets regulator has stated that prediction markets may fall squarely within the existing product proscription against binary options.

• The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded firms in a statement issued last Friday that they must “assess whether newly offered products fall within the scope of existing product intervention measures on binary options.”

• ESMA said the statement was a response to the “growing popularity of prediction markets – or event contracts – and increasing retail participation globally.”

Say yes to heaven: ESMA’s definition left little room for semantics: an event contract is an agreement whose outcome is binary, “a fixed payout or no payout at all,” turning on “a yes-or-no answer to a question about a future event.”

• “Not all event contracts are financial instruments,” ESMA noted; only those that qualify under the terms of MiFID II.

• But where one does, the authority was unequivocal that it is a derivative, and that its marketing, distribution or sale to retail clients “is prohibited.”

Stop me if you think you’ve heard this one before: These prohibitions are not new. They descend from the temporary EU-wide ban introduced under ESMA’s 2018 Decision, later replaced by permanent national measures that mirror the original text and remain in force in every member state.

• Binary options were, in other words, judged toxic enough to be pulled from the retail market long before Kalshi, Polymarket and their imitators reached Europe.

• Rebranding the product does not resurrect it.

What’s in a name? The authority was pointed on labeling. A firm’s commercial name for a product – “event contracts” being the obvious example – is “irrelevant for the categorisation under MiFID II,” it said.

• Operators are instead expected to run a “careful legal analysis of these products and their functioning,” while meeting an overarching obligation to “act honestly, fairly and professionally” in clients’ best interests.

• The conclusion is that because binary-outcome contracts are “likely to be derivatives that are financial instruments,” they are likely to sit within the intervention measures.

The small print: The authority also preempted one of the sector’s favored design features: some contracts pay a “coupon” or “reward” representing interest on a customer’s deposited funds, but this, it stated flatly, “does not change the binary nature of the event contract itself.”

• A footnote warned that “participating in circumvention activities to the product intervention measures is prohibited.”

Miffed: The obligations do not stop at retail. Because qualifying contracts are financial instruments, providing investment services around them in the EU requires authorization under MiFID II “irrespective of the category of clients.”

• A platform distributing such contracts “even only to non-retail clients requires this authorisation.”

• It is a threshold most prediction market operators do not currently clear.

A pincer movement: As Compliance+More reported last month, nine European gambling regulators used a joint declaration to warn that prediction markets increasingly resemble gambling products offered outside national licensing regimes.

• ESMA now completes the pincer from the opposite flank, and a single footnote shows how little room is left.

• An event contract, it observed, “may also classify as a bet under national gambling legislation” or, where tokenized and not a financial instrument, as a crypto-asset under MiCA.

Either/or: The standard operator defense, that a prediction market is a novel financial product rather than a bet, and belongs under financial rather than gambling law, is closed off from both sides.

• If the contract is a financial instrument, it is very probably a banned binary option; if it is not, gambling law or MiCA is waiting instead.

+More predictions

• New Jersey has requested more time to take its legal battle with Kalshi to the US Supreme Court. If granted, the extension would give the AG’s office until September 4 to seek review of a Third Circuit ruling favoring prediction markets. The state maintains sports event contracts are unlicensed sports betting, while operators argue they are federally regulated financial products. New Jersey is also considering prediction-market regulation and taxation.

• The Michigan Gaming Control Board is withdrawing from the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) following Kalshi’s admission under a new financial trading and services category. The board said Kalshi continues to offer unlicensed sports betting in Michigan and criticized its portrayal of sports event contracts as investments. It added that continued NCPG membership conflicted with its regulatory mission and responsible gaming commitments.

• Earrings+More: Spotify has removed more than 10 million streams from Malcolm Todd’s song ‘Earrings’ after detecting artificial activity that distorted its US chart performance. The inflated figures had already determined an ~$3m Kalshi market on June’s most-streamed Spotify song, with payouts completed before confirmation. Kalshi is investigating, while Spotify plans additional chart checks to prevent similar manipulation in the future.

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• Eliminate Debit Declines

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+More

• Australia’s communications regulator has formally warned mixed martial arts fighter Jamie Mullarkey for promoting an illegal offshore gambling site on Instagram in 2025. The ACMA said the case was its first enforcement action against an influencer for breaching online gambling rules. Mullarkey removed the content, ended the sponsorship and cooperated with investigators. Influencers can face penalties of A$59,400 ($41,200) for promotion and up to A$2.475m for facilitating access to illegal services.

• Sportsbet in Australia: Meanwhile, the Australian financial intelligence agency AUSTRAC has cleared Sportsbet after the Flutter-owned operator completed remediation of serious anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing control deficiencies. A 2024 enforceable undertaking required an external audit and improvements to risk assessment, customer monitoring and suspicious-matter reporting. AUSTRAC chief Brendan Thomas said all required measures had been implemented and operationalized.

• Meanwhile, AUSTRAC has placed bet365 under a legally binding enforceable undertaking after identifying serious weaknesses in its anti-money laundering controls, risk management and suspicious-transaction reporting. The bookmaker must overhaul its systems, introduce a robust ongoing risk-assessment framework and strengthen monitoring as threats evolve. The action followed an independent audit and subsequent AUSTRAC investigation.

• Brazil: The Ministry of Justice is investigating CazéTV, Globo and SBT over potentially abusive betting advertising during World Cup broadcasts. The scrutiny follows data showing 35% of Brazilians have wagered since the tournament began, more than triple May’s level. Average deposits also increased, reaching R$272 ($53) per user on June 28, while more than 60% of deposits were made after 6pm.

Ohio ban effort

OH-no: Ohio lawmakers have introduced legislation that would dismantle the state’s online sports-betting market, replacing statewide mobile wagering with a restricted, casino-based model.

• House Bill 971, known as the Save Ohio Sports Act, was introduced by representatives Johnathan Newman and Beth Lear.

• The measure would require mobile sportsbook operations to be geofenced to licensed casinos, effectively ending the ability of customers to bet online from anywhere in the state.

Not seen, not heard: The bill would also prohibit all wagering on college sports, in-game betting, individual player proposition bets and parlays. Sportsbook advertising during games would be banned, while sports-betting kiosks operated through the Ohio Lottery would be eliminated.

• Customers would be limited to wagers of no more than $100 and to placing a maximum of eight bets in any 24-hour period.

• Supporters said the proposals are intended to curb predatory industry practices and reduce gambling-related harm.

• Ohio already banned college-player proposition bets in February 2024, but HB 971 would go considerably further by removing all college-sports wagering and sharply limiting both the availability and range of permitted bets.

But, but, but: The proposal is likely to face strong opposition from sportsbook operators and lawmakers concerned about the loss of tax revenue.

• Ohio has generated nearly $600m in sports-betting taxes since the regulated market launched in January 2023, with online wagering accounting for the overwhelming majority of taxable revenue.

• Newman argued that relying on gambling proceeds to support education was not worth the social costs, saying the system benefits large gambling companies while exposing vulnerable residents to harm.

Click and collect: The bill has 10 cosponsors, although representatives Gary Click and Riordan McClain, who appeared alongside Newman when the initiative was announced in April, were not included.

• Click’s office said he lacked the capacity to add the legislation to his workload but would continue monitoring it.

• McClain’s office said he had not expected the bill to be introduced so early and could potentially add his name if it reaches the House floor.

• The legislation would represent one of the most extensive attempts by any US state to roll back an established mobile sports-betting market.

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Card sharps

Strike! A California court has struck down regulations introduced by Attorney General Rob Bonta’s Bureau of Gambling Control that would have restricted blackjack-style and other player-dealer table games in the state’s cardrooms.

• San Francisco Superior Court Judge Richard Darwin ruled that the Bureau exceeded its statutory authority.

• The court found its role was to enforce California gaming law rather than create statewide restrictions that effectively rewrote it.

The measures, approved earlier in 2026, targeted games designed to comply with California’s prohibition on house-banked gambling outside tribal casinos. Cardrooms instead use rotating player-dealer positions, often supported by third-party proposition player services.

• The regulations would have restricted blackjack-style mechanics and tightened dealer-rotation requirements.

• This potentially forces operators to withdraw or redesign games that have been offered for decades.

An attack on business: The California Gaming Association (CGA), which challenged the rules, argued they could eliminate around half of industry revenue, prompting closures, reduced operations and thousands of job losses.

• It also warned of consequences for municipalities that depend on cardroom taxes to support police, parks, libraries, youth programs and other public services.

• The Department of Justice’s own economic analysis had projected a regulatory impact of at least $600m over 10 years.

Handing over a lifeline: CGA president Kyle Kirkland described the decision as confirmation that the AG could not bypass the legislature to reshape gaming policy. He said the ruling provided a “lifeline” to cardroom-dependent communities and accused regulators of advancing tribal gaming interests at the expense of established operators.

• The dispute forms part of California’s long-running battle over the dividing line between lawful player-banked cardroom games and casino-style banked games reserved for tribal operators.

• Tribal groups have maintained that some cardroom products improperly imitate blackjack and baccarat.

• The ruling protects existing cardroom operations, although further litigation or an appeal by the state could continue the fight over regulatory authority and gaming exclusivity.

Calendar

• Jul 8-11: NCLGS summer meeting, San Diego

• Jul 22-24: NCPG Annual Conference, Nashville

• Sep 21-24: NASPL, Orlando

• Sep 29-Oct1: Regulation and compliance track, SBC Lisbon

• Oct 15: Gaming in Spain, Madrid

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

Subscribe now

GuardDog, powered by Underdog, is a pioneering investment fund dedicated to fostering innovation in responsible gaming.

GuardDog supports and accelerates early-stage startups focused on building new and creative solutions to address problem gaming and further responsible gaming.

Ready to be one of the underdogs of responsible gaming?

Visit to apply: https://underdogfantasy.com/guarddog

An +More Media publication.

For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media.

Yaspa is an award-winning fintech delivering personal intelligence through instant payments. Powered by open banking and AI, Yaspa’s Intelligent Payments combine Pay by Bank transactions with verified customer insights to protect players and power safer gambling. The platform also provides a full suite of payment and account verification services, using pan-operator financial insights and bank-grade security to reduce friction and fraud, strengthen compliance and improve payments performance. Yaspa operates across the UK, Europe and the US, and is regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

Learn more at www.yaspa.com

The reducer

Just as long as my baby’s safe from harm tonight: A research paper on affordability checks may have done something the UK gambling debate has largely failed to do: put numbers around the trade-off between preventing harm and preserving liberty.

Ulterior motive: That matters because, as industry commentator Vaughan Lewis argued in a recent Substack post, UK gambling policy is increasingly behaving as if it has acquired a fourth licensing objective: reducing gambling participation.

• The Gambling Act 2005 set out three statutory objectives: preventing crime, ensuring gambling is fair and open, and protecting children and vulnerable people from harm.

• It did not say that adult gambling participation should be reduced as an end in itself.

Overt maneuvers: But the news this week about the SMF calling for a new rate of 40% on machine games duty (MGD) once again suggests that is indeed the main objective of the anti-gambling campaigners.

• Regulus Partners noted that such an imposition would likely cause the closure of 70% of UK betting shops and up to 90% of adult gaming centers.

Tell us what you really think: Lewis’ point is not that participation reduction is necessarily illegitimate. “The issue is that Parliament has never been asked to decide,” he wrote. If ministers, regulators or campaigners believe the UK should now move from regulating gambling to suppressing overall demand, that should be made explicit.

• The alternative is regulatory drift, where a series of individually defensible interventions cumulatively changes the purpose of the regime without any democratic decision to do so.

• “The UK has accumulated a series of reforms that individually address harm concerns but collectively move policy in a particular direction,” said Lewis.

• “The trade-offs embedded in that direction have never been debated explicitly, despite substantial international evidence about their consequences.”

The balance of the evidence: A newly published paper from the Society for the Study of Addiction examines financial risk assessments using open banking data from 424 UK gamblers, combining actual bank records with Problem Gambling Severity Index scores.

• The key finding was that the UK’s proposed £150 net-deposit threshold over a rolling 30-day period put greater weight on harm prevention than liberty preservation.

• Over 12 months, two-thirds of at-risk consumers crossed the threshold, but so did nearly half of no- or lower-risk participants.

• The authors found that a slightly higher threshold, around £187, marginally improved the balance, though £150 still sat within the range of potentially appropriate values.

In the public sphere: The report does not say affordability checks are wrong and nor does it say the industry should be left alone. But, as Lewis said, in the UK affordability checks have “expanded without clear public consensus about where intervention thresholds should sit.”

• And while none of the measures introduced have been explicitly promoted as being participation reduction attempts, the net effect is the same.

• “The result is a regulatory framework that appears to be operating as if reducing gambling participation is itself an objective, despite no such objective existing in primary legislation,” said Lewis.

I’m free: Adult gambling was legalized on the premise that consumers should be free to take risk, spend disposable income and engage with a regulated betting product, provided the market is fair, crime-free and subject to protections for children and vulnerable people.

• That freedom has never been absolute and there are always decisions to be taken by governments over how to balance consumer freedoms with harm reduction.

• But a regime that imposes too much friction on too many consumers risks undermining channelization and pushing higher-value or more determined bettors towards unlicensed operators.

• That is the central weakness in participation-reduction thinking. It assumes less activity in the licensed market equals less harm.

• But if demand persists and migrates offshore, the apparent reduction may simply be a transfer from visible, taxable, supervised activity to invisible, untaxed and less controllable activity.

Slop: Regulus said this week of the SMF’s 40% MGD recommendation that “not only is the economic modelling and industry knowledge in the report demonstrably poor, the underlying assumptions on participation and harm are also sloppy and selective.”

• “Raising MGD to 40% is a counter-productive policy based upon a poor use of evidence and false arguments,” the analysts added.

• “Living proof of this is also occurring in the Netherlands, where a 37.8% tax rate is yielding far less than expected because of land-based declines caused by closures.”

• Foreign bodies: Lewis draws attention to the same dynamic. “International evidence increasingly shows that adding friction to regulated products can sometimes encourage migration to unlicensed alternatives,” he said.

• “The lesson is not that regulation causes black markets,” he added.

• Instead, he said that “every additional restriction should be assessed not only for its potential harm-reduction benefit, but also for its effect on the regulated market’s ability to retain customers.”

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• UK: Petfre (Gibraltar) Limited, operator of Betfred.com, has agreed to pay £900,000 following a settlement with the UK Gambling Commission over social responsibility failings. The regulator found weaknesses in the operator’s automated safer-gambling systems, including delays in identifying and interacting with at-risk customers. In one case, a customer lost £17,900 within 24 hours without intervention. The Commission said Petfre has since implemented remedial measures and strengthened its compliance framework.

• Alberta: The forthcoming regulated iGaming market is expected to generate approximately C$76m ($53.5m) in tax revenue during its first year of operation, according to Service Alberta minister Dale Nally. Speaking ahead of the market’s July 13 launch, Nally said the competitive model is designed to channel players away from unregulated sites while delivering new government revenues. Officials expect the market to mirror Ontario’s success in attracting licensed operators and improving consumer protection.

• Sports integrity: Former NBA players Malik Beasley and Ed Davis have been indicted by federal prosecutors as part of a widening illegal sports-betting investigation. Prosecutors allege Beasley manipulated his on-court performances in multiple games while with the Milwaukee Bucks to benefit bettors, with Davis accused of helping organize the scheme. Six people face charges including sports bribery, wire fraud and money laundering conspiracies.

• Nebraska: A campaign to legalize OSB in Nebraska remains on track to qualify for the November ballot, with organizers saying they expect to submit enough signatures before the July deadline. The proposed constitutional amendment would allow licensed online sportsbooks tethered to racetracks, with a 20% tax rate and a portion of revenue earmarked for property tax relief. Supporters argue the measure would recapture betting currently flowing to neighboring states and illegal operators.

• Bally’s has hired the law firm of former Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot to support a potential lawsuit against the City of Chicago over its move to legalize video gaming terminals in bars and restaurants. The casino operator argues the policy breaches its host agreement and could significantly undermine the economics of its planned Chicago casino development, threatening jobs and tax revenues.

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Michigan legal moves

Trench lawfare: Kalshi’s legal battle with state regulators has taken another significant turn after a Michigan judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing the prediction market operator from offering sports event contracts to state residents.

• The order was granted by Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina following an application by Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel.

• The judge prohibited the New York-based company from allowing anyone located in Michigan to trade sports event contracts and ordered Kalshi to implement a state-licensed third-party geolocation service to enforce the restrictions.

• Failure to comply could result in fines of $120,000 per day.

In her ruling, Aquilina accepted the state’s argument that Kalshi’s products amount to unlicensed sports betting rather than legitimate financial derivatives, stating that Michigan and its residents would suffer “immediate and irreparable harm” if the products continued to be offered.

• It highlighted concerns that vulnerable consumers were being exposed to gambling activity presented as an investment opportunity.

• Kalshi said it intends to challenge the decision, maintaining its long-standing position that its event contracts fall exclusively under the jurisdiction of the CFTC.

Add it up: The Michigan decision adds to an increasingly complex litigation landscape. Nevada has already secured a preliminary injunction preventing Kalshi from offering similar contracts without obtaining a state gaming license.

• Massachusetts has also obtained an injunction, although enforcement there remains on hold pending appeal.

• Arizona has gone further by pursuing criminal charges against the company, while several other states continue to contest Kalshi’s operations through cease-and-desist orders and civil litigation.

Far from over: The ruling provides another indication that state courts remain willing to accept arguments that sports event contracts closely resemble conventional sports wagering, regardless of their federal regulatory status.

• However, the broader jurisdictional dispute remains far from settled.

• Conflicting rulings together with the CFTC’s support for prediction markets mean the issue appears increasingly likely to require definitive resolution by the federal appellate courts.

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• Massachusetts has been allowed to expand its lawsuit against Kalshi to include allegations of underage gambling violations. A Suffolk County Superior Court judge approved claims that Kalshi permitted people under 21 to trade sports event contracts and targeted them through advertising. The allegations add to the state’s case that Kalshi offers unlicensed sports betting. An earlier injunction remains paused while Kalshi appeals.

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Germany blocks FIFA partner

Nein: Germany’s gambling regulator has forced FIFA prediction market partner ADI Predictstreet to block access to its platform from within Germany, the latest move on the part of a European gambling authority against prediction markets.

• The German Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) confirmed it initiated enforcement action after determining that ADI Predictstreet was offering services in Germany without the required national gambling license.

• ADI Predictstreet has been a highly visible sponsor of the ongoing World Cup, featuring on pitchside hoardings and interview backdrops.

• Following the regulator’s intervention, the company – which lacks a German betting license – restricted access to users connecting from Germany, displaying a notice that the service is unavailable in the jurisdiction.

In your face: According to an analysis by the University of Hohenheim, commissioned by RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland, viewers watching Germany’s opening two World Cup matches on public broadcasters ARD and ZDF were exposed to almost an hour of gambling advertising.

• The GGL said the operator’s subsequent geo-blocking of German users resulted directly from its supervisory measures.

• Under Germany’s Interstate Treaty on Gambling, only operators appearing on the regulator’s official whitelist are permitted to market gambling services to German consumers.

• Foreign licenses, including Gibraltar, which is the flag that ADI Predictstreet flies under, do not automatically authorize operators to target the German market.

Own goal: ADI Predictstreet has previously argued that it had not directed marketing specifically at German consumers and therefore believed it was complying with applicable laws. FIFA has not publicly commented on the regulatory action.

• The case is significant beyond Germany because ADI Predictstreet is FIFA’s official prediction market partner, illustrating the regulatory uncertainty surrounding event contract and prediction market businesses outside the US.

• The platform, backed by interests linked to Abu Dhabi’s ruling family, offers markets on sporting events alongside political and economic outcomes. It also signed a partnership with Kalshi late last week

The German action comes shortly after the GGL joined several European gambling regulators in warning that prediction markets can present consumer protection, market manipulation and transparency risks if they fall outside established gambling regulatory frameworks.

• Within the past fortnight, nine European gambling regulators issued a rare joint declaration warning consumers, sports organizations and operators about the risks posed by prediction markets during the World Cup.

• The statement is one of the most coordinated international responses yet to the rise of prediction markets in the US.

Calendar

• Jul 8-11: NCLGS summer meeting, San Diego

• Jul 22-24: NCPG Annual Conference, Nashville

• Nov 10: Gaming in Germany, Berlin

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Back in the firing line

One way or another, I’m gonna find ya: Less than a year after UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves sharply increased taxes on online gaming in the Autumn Budget, the Social Market Foundation (SMF) has returned with a fresh proposal that could prove equally controversial for the land-based industry.

• The think tank has called for the government to introduce a new 40% rate of machine games duty (MGD) on Category B gaming machines.

• It said the measure could raise £275m-£458m annually while reducing gambling-related harms.

I’m gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya: While the SMF presented the proposal as a targeted intervention focused on higher-risk gaming machines rather than a broad-based tax increase, critics argued it would instead amount to a severe financial shock for betting shops, casinos, bingo halls and adult gaming centers.

• Regulus Partners analyst Dan Waugh said the SMF’s latest recommendations continued a pattern of flawed economic analysis and selective use of evidence.

• “The SMF’s approach to tax policy is haphazard,” he said in a note responding to the report. “They appear to be making things up on the hoof.”

I will drive past your house: The report follows closely behind the SMF’s successful campaign for higher taxation of online gambling.

• Last year’s Budget saw the government substantially increase remote gaming duty after ministers explicitly linked online casino products with gambling-related harms.

• The decision prompted warnings from listed operators that higher taxation would reduce investment, damage competitiveness and strengthen the appeal of unlicensed operators.

• The SMF now argues the same logic should apply to electronic gaming machines.

And if the lights are all down: Its proposal would leave lower-risk Category C machines, commonly found in pubs, at their existing 20% rate while introducing a new 40% band specifically for Category B machines found in betting shops, bingo clubs, arcades and casinos.

• The organization said these machines are associated with disproportionately high levels of gambling harm and therefore warrant higher taxation.

I’ll see who’s around: The think tank also claimed the measure would improve the public finances twice over: first, through higher machine duty receipts and, secondly, because consumer spending would shift into other sectors that generate greater employment and higher tax revenues.

• Its modeling estimates the economic cost of problem gambling linked to electronic gaming machines at £2.33bn annually.

• This is compared with current MGD receipts of around £600m.

One day, maybe next week, I’m gonna meet ya: The report was accompanied by Survation polling that suggested 43% of UK adults support higher taxes on betting shop gaming machines, compared with just 11% who favor lower taxes, with support extending across all major political parties.

• However, Waugh argued that both the economics and the politics behind the proposals deserve closer scrutiny.

• He suggested the SMF has once again selectively designed its recommendations around political feasibility, exempting pub gaming machines while concentrating the burden on sectors with less political influence.

• “It also appears opportunistic,” Waugh said, adding that the think tank had previously modified its recommendations to avoid opposition from horse racing.

• Now it is proposing measures that could indirectly damage racing by weakening betting shop economics.

I’m gonna trick ya, trick ya, trick ya, trick ya: More fundamentally, Waugh disputed both the modeling and the assumptions underpinning the projected tax revenues. According to his analysis, the SMF appears to assume that doubling duty would have little impact on customer demand or on the supply of gaming machines.

• In reality, he argued, many venues would simply become uneconomic.

• “The upper estimate of the SMF’s duty forecasts appears to envisage zero impact on supply or demand from a doubling of duty,” he said.

• This despite the fact that many bingo clubs, casinos, LBOs and arcades “would undoubtedly close.”