Analysts often criticize the lack of interest in Africa by several US Administrations going back to the term of Barack Obama. The policy which at one point was criticized for being heavy handed is so nuanced when implemented it often appears comedic.

An unwritten rule also states that while governments may change ideologies and objectives, the security forces will maintain the relationships due to muscle memory. Or in some cases it is either convenient or even necessary.

There are periods when relations often are best described as chaotic. This often takes place when an extrajudicial change in government takes place. To be blunt, this is often how a long entrenched despotic ruler will only leave power. The other way happens when they pass from the scene. Often the bureaucrats in Washington dither with their response regarding whether the change in government was legal or not. That way often creates more headaches. It can be said that Washington often prefers efficient dictatorships against unreliable democracies.

We also hear how Washington desires stabile relationships with African partners. In a military sense there is one that not only is stable but also had eluded the radar for so long there has been little or no criticism levied against either it or the nation in question.

As most analysts focus on events playing out in real time in both the Horn of Africa and in the Sahel that threaten to unleash havoc on the regional neighbors, there is a change in direction. We are actually discussing a country in Southern Africa. That country happens to be Botswana.

Why the interest in Botswana? A cynical view most likely will center on the Diamond industry as the country is a major source of the gems. The country was also one of the countries that set up the Kimberley process to combat the flow of illicit gems that has financed conflicts in Sierra Leone and the Congo decades ago.

We can’t ignore how relations with South Africa have soured since Donald Trump returned to the oval office in 2025 over several issues including the country’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine and filing a complaint against Israel at the International Criminal Court as well. Another country of interest is Zimbabwe.

Relations between Washington and Harare soured over the controversial land reform program back in the early 2000s. Since the removal of long-standing President Robert Mugabe relations between the two countries remain tense but in the view of some are gradually improving.

How does Washington view the ties that it has currently with Gaborone? Within the last fortnight the U.S. has wrapped up another military exercise. SOUTHERN ACCORD 2026 ended with a ceremony at the Gaborone Technical College.

The object of the exercise was to have Botswanan and American Troops focus on interoperability, planning and shared security challenges. There are plenty of security challenges currently rising in several parts of Africa.

The Botswanan Defense Force (BDF) is also a participant in the State Partnership Program. This is a program where a US National Guard Unit from a state is paired with a foreign military. The partner for Botswana happens to be the North Carolina National Guard and this relationship has been in place since 2008. One interesting point was that the U.S. Space Force was also a partner in this exercise. More African Countries are entering the Space Race by launching their own satellites to monitor the weather and even porous borders.

The next planned exercise is in 2028

We often hear the acronym CODEL or short for Congressional Delegation used with ridicule and scorn. The average American will feel often with some justification that these trips are boondoggles designed to keep Congressional members from their constituents.

So, what happens when a leader requests that a CODEL visit him as soon as possible? That has recently happened. There is information that indicates that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is requesting a visit.

Before the question of should this visit takes place is answered it should be noted that the Ethiopian Government has hired lobbyists in the past with the expressed and explicit goal of having members of the Ethiopian Government have one on one conversations with members of both the House and the Senate. This can be seen as a sign of just how seriously Addis views its relationship with Congress.

There are some factors at play that will determine how soon the CODEL could visit Ethiopia. The main factor currently is the calendar. At the time of posting Congress is almost at the end of the annual August recess. The scheduled return is the day after Labor Day (September 8). The time they are back in session is short. They will then leave and return to their districts in the House for the November Mid-Term elections.

So, if there is a CODEL that might not happen until during the lame duck session or in the period between the Christmas recess and the new Congress is seated in the first week of January.

However, there are additional data points that may encourage some members to be willing to take the trip and assess the situation firsthand.

The country is being drawn into the ongoing proxy war in Sudan. The position of the Ethiopian Government is that it supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Paramilitary leader General Hemeti. The claim is that the RSF has been launching Drone Strikes (UAVs) into Sudan from Ethiopia. On August 24^th the Sudanese Armed Forces claimed to have shot down a UAV in Blue Nile State that was claimed to have crossed the border from Ethiopia. This is the third such claim made in recent days by the SAF.

Also, in this timeframe satellite imagery shows a buildup of vehicles and equipment at a base in the Asosa area. There is a train of thought that the Ethiopian National Defense Force (EDNF) may cross the border and engage the SAF in support of the RSF. In contrast, operations against the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have resumed as well. It is not a secret to learn that the SAF have been recruiting members of the TPLF to fight in Sudan.

Also, there are still reports of conflict in the Amhara region as well. In this region the main protagonists against the ENDF are a combination of the Amhara Fano Self Defense Force (FANO) and the Oromo Prosperity Party. There have also been reports of clashes in the Orioma region of the country as well.

However, the largest shock may come from Somalia. On August 29^th reports emerged of a movement of troops across the border that is both concerning and shows how fragmented Somalia has become despite the efforts at nation building. An estimated 200 troops that had just finished basic training at a camp in Xananburre in Galnudug were arrested after attempting to cross into Ethiopia.

Some of the troops who are from the Somali region of Ethiopia said that they were either trying to visit family members or openly admitted that they were defecting. It has been reported that these soldiers were to be part of a 5,000 man force that was to be funded by Saudi Arabia. It has not had the desired effect of promoting a strong viable Somali state. Instead it shows a country in chaos with too many actors teaching too many military doctrines which will lead to chaos with the Somali National Army.

If Abiy Ahmed wants to show how unsecure his border with Somalia is or seek backing to intervene and support an independent Somaliland that scenario may also be in the cards even though most of it is not visible to the casual observer yet.

The operative word happens to be yet.

It can be confirmed that another country in Africa is willing to accept some of those individuals’ seeking asylum who have been denied entry or residency into the United States.

Last week it was revealed that Liberia has reached a deal with the United States to accept these rejected from entry. The first group of 20 detainees arrived last week out of a total number of 1,200 that are expected to arrive in Liberia before the end of the year.

The Honorable Jerolinmek M, PIah the information minister for the Government of Liberia was quoted “The persons to be transferred from the United States of America to Liberia should therefore be accorded full Liberian hospitality whilst in Liberia, and shall remain free to depart the country when they so desire,” Mr. Piah would further state “while the Liberian government will provide essential support to help protect the individuals and facilitate their stay, institutional and financial assistance required to administer the arrangement and strengthen Liberia’s broader migration system will come directly from the U.S. government”

The decision by the Liberian Government is guided by humanitarian considerations and the minister urged that Liberians extend the traditional hospitality to the new arrivals.

However, some of the former detainees were not pleased with the arrangements. There are reports that six detainees that refused to exit the aircraft in Liberia were then flown to Equatorial Guinea. The small country has also recently signed a third-party deal with the United States to accept those asylum seekers and refugees who have been denied entry into the United States. Media reports suggest that those getting off the planes were still in shackles and showing signs of distress.

Media reports suggest that the six refusals were sent to a hotel in the Capital of Malabo which already holds 40 others who have been returned from the United States. One major concern is that there is no medical staff at the facility. One of the reasons why this is concerning is that one of the arrivals has a large abdominal growth and uses a colostomy bag that needs to be regularly drained. Inadequate care is a quick way to face a lawsuit for malpractice, and this person may have a clear and classic case for a motivated lawyer.

It should be noted that the Government of Equatorial Guinea received 7.5 million USD from the Trump Administration to convert the property that was owned by the ruling Obiang Family into a facility that would house third-party asylum seekers.

This third-party asylum seekers deal is not the only one signed between Liberia and the United States in recent months. In a July posting on Confused Eagle, details regarding a Health Care MOU that was signed between the countries were covered.

We know from history of the ties between Liberia and the United States. The capital is named after a President of the United States, it was one of the first places where freed black men returned to Africa after their experiences in the United States. Although relations were disrupted during the Civil War period, A series of free, fair and democratic elections have assisted in rebuilding relations between the two countries.

The success of Liberia has also been a bipartisan issue as well. It can be said that Liberia is the first place where American ideals were first tested in Africa.

It is in the best interests of the U.S. to see Liberia succeed but the asylum refusals should be done better especially for those with medical concerns...

Over the weekend of August 22nd, the Confused Eagle received an interesting tip which was confirmed by contacts within the Independent Sudanese Media Community.

Abdalah Hamdok the Former Prime Minister of Sudan and member of the Civil Democratic Alliance of the Forces of the Revolution (Sumoud) is expected to arrive soon in Washington, D.C. on what has been described as an urgent diplomatic mission.

What is the issue that would have Mr. Hamdok travel to the United States with little or no fanfare? The answer is that he hopes that he can successfully lobby the Trump Administration to support calls to enforce a No-Fly zone over Sudan.

This is the time when details matter and are needed. At face value most people will be willing to support the calls for a No-Fly zone. One of the details that needs to be addressed is just how large this zone will actually be. For a proper implementation not only will the airspace over Sudan have to be covered but also several of its neighbors.

On August 22^nd reports emerged that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) had launched an airstrike against a convoy travelling in Ennedi-Est Province in Chad. This strike was conducted roughly 100 kilometers from the border with Sudan. It is widely known that the region is a major route for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to receive supplies from their international backers. The border between these two countries has best been described as porous and extends for 1,300 kilometers.

So, this part of Chad will have to full under the umbrella of this proposed zone. Another area of interest that will have be part of the zone is Southern Egypt. The Egyptian Military has launched airstrikes in support of the SAF from time to time in this conflict. So, this area will also have to fall under the umbrella of the zone.

After a series of RSF launching strikes from their territory and the alliance between the SAF and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that has flown under the radar of most analysts, it probably will be necessary to add Ethiopia to the Zone. There is an additional hidden benefit to having the No-Fly Zone be extended to Ethiopia. It may also prevent any effort to attack the GERD project which has been a source of tensions between Ethiopia and both Egypt and Sudan.

Another question is, should the implementation be a standalone effort? Or would it be more effective as a plank in a cease-fire deal? Those who want to end the fight will urge the zone to be implemented as soon as possible.

So how will this zone be enforced? That is the question to be answered. Some of the regional powers that have the capabilities to do so such as Egypt and Ethiopia are active participants in the conflict. So, this may not be a viable option. If one suggests an Arab option, then 3 countries should be stricken as they have roles in this conflict. Those three states are Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Russia may offer to participate in this effort as they have interests in Sudan that need to be protecting. However, their activities in Ukraine may indicate what their position is regarding No-Fly Zones.

There may be some hope that the United States could be one of the participants in this endeavor. The current on-again, off-again conflict with Iran has placed strain on both US assets in the region and with relations with some of our allies in the region. Addressing the Sudan crisis may be both a welcome distraction and a subtle way to restore harmony with these partnerships.

That means some of the Southern Flank of NATO may have to provide some means and methods to both establish and enforce this No-Fly Zone. At least until another partner or a coalition can be cobbled together by the U.N. to implement this.

That is if the Administration can be convinced that this course of action is beneficial to the interests of the Country.

Not everyone takes a break in August. We know that Congress goes into recess for the entire month, and even the think tanks scale back their events for the month. Not every entity takes time for the month.

On August 6^th the President of the UN Security Council released a letter that transmitted a report. The report was the 38^th annual report by the Analytical Support and the Sanctions Monitoring Team pursuant to resolutions 1526 (2004) and 2253 (2015), which was submitted pursuant to resolutions 1267(1999), 1989 (2011) and 2253 (2015) concerning Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities, in accordance with paragraph (a) of annex I of resolution 2734 (2024).

Since this report monitors the activity of Jihadists should we be really surprised that there is a section covering Africa?

The answer is no. The first sentence in the section covering Africa is direct in address who the UN thinks is the most serious threat in Africa. That distinction belongs to Jama ‘at Nusrat al-Islam Wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The data points in this report regarding JNIM are concerning.

The report found that the group continues to expand and remains the largest terrorist threat in West Africa. The estimated number of fighters in the group is estimated to be between 7-8,000 fighters with half of them deployed and operating inside Mali.

The group used part of a 50 million USD ransom payment in 2025 to finance the April 25^th attack across Mali, and some funds were also allocated to Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). This is a data point that should raise some alarms. It doesn’t appear that any measures have been taken to confirm or deny this report.

JMIM has used katibas which has allowed the group to launch complex geographically dispersed operations, including the use of satellite technology. Dozens of terminals have been used by local commanders and fighters to provide resilient high-speed connectivity in remote areas and facilitate communications between units.

The group has also claimed over 130 attacks in Burkina Faso already this year. The number of attacks in neighboring Niger at least 17 attacks have been launched. Niger is the epicenter of the Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISIS) which is another emerging threat in the region but is substantially smaller in number to JNIM.

ISGS also has found a territory to expand into. It has moved into Nigeria and is participating in the mass kidnappings and other events taking place in the country. Previously, the group was centered in Sokoto State. However, the group has an established presence in both Kebbi and Zamfara States. This expansion was due to the ability to recruit hundreds of members of the Lakurawa group.

The report also documents the success of the joint Nigerian-U.S. Military operation against the ISWAP (Islamic State West African Province) on May 16^th. Despite the success of the strikes it is felt that the relationship that ISWAP has with ISGS will not be deterred.

The report also states that the Allied Democratic Forces also known as ISCAP (Islamic State Central Africa Province) remains a serious threat and has between 1 and 2000 fighters active in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Between January and May of this year the group has launched an estimated 80 attacks that has left 400 dead and leaving a substantial number of people displace.

Despite a multinational presence in Cabo Delgado, a force of only 500 fighters for Ahl al-Sunna wal-Jamm’a (ASWJ) runs operations in six provinces in the region.

The reports document that ISIL is discouraging foreign fighters from traveling to Somalia. IS has a small presence in the country while Al-Shabaab is the main face of Islamic insurgency in the Country. The planned ending of US Financial Assistance to the African Union in Somalia may change the calculus after the first of the year.

It is still going to be an interesting time in Africa.

On August 13, 2026, Zambia went to the polls to determine who would be their next leader. In addition, ballots would be cast for members of the National Assembly, councilors, and council chairs. That part of the process went off without incident.

In recent years issues that affect African Elections often arise during the tabulation process. In some ways this proves the statement that the former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin said. He is believed to have remarked that “It is not who cast the ballots that is important but rather who counts them”. At the time of the preparation of this item, the tally was not finished in the country.

The most recent numbers released by the Zambia Electoral Commission (ZEC) shown that with 71 % of the votes counted the current incumbent Hakainde Hichilema has garnered 62% of the vote while his main opposition Brian Mundubile has around 36% of the valid vote out a little more than 3.3 million votes cast. A Presidential Candidate must win more than 50% of the vote in the first round or face a runoff between the top two contenders.

The EU Election Observation Mission for Zambia released their preliminary findings for this election. The initial statement seems straightforward. It said, “Democratic expectations tested in a competitive process, but limitations to fundamental freedoms resulted in uneven playing field”. The mission from the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Mission noted the sense of unease in the country after the vote tabulation was suspended after reports of violence at several locations. A final report from the SADC Mission is expected within the next 30 days (about 4 and a half weeks).

However, the situation has moved in a direction that can only be best described as bizarre. On August 17^th the Zambian Security Forces announced that they had arrested 11 people and seized weapons as they foiled what has been described as an insurrection plot. Several members of the opposition, including Presidential Candidate Brian Mundubile, were at the scene of some of the arrests.

Speaking on behalf of the government Patrick Kangwa said that the individuals arrested were connected to “military plans involving foreign nationals and illegal military training camps.” He would further state those taken into custody “posed a serious threat to state security” and were in possession of “high-grade military weapons”, ammunition and other materials needed to launch an armed insurrection.

Mister Kangwa would further stipulate that there was an exchange of gunfire between both parties but did not elaborate on any casualties.

One may ask should Washington be concerned about the turn of events in Zambia? It should be. Zambia has a key role in the Lobito Corridor project. This is a transportation project that will transport rare earth minerals from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo to ports in Angola where the materials would then transit to smelters and factories in North America and Europe.

President Hichelma received high marks for the economic improvements made in the country since the 2021 crisis. One concern that the United States should have is the large Chinese presence in the Zambian Economy. Beijing is the largest debt holder of Zambia as well. The Trump Administration often seeks some form of leverage to be used to counter Chinese interests in Africa.

The situation in Zambia is now too important to ignore....

There are plenty of reasons to be angry at Legacy Media. They often manipulate stories so that their preferred actor can be shielded from criticism no matter how justified it is or more blatantly determine that there is no story here.

Additionally, how a crisis is covered or in some cases is not covered often leads the reader wondering what their motivations are and forces them to seek new sources of news and information.

Twice this year the leaders of two major Christian Denominations have made visits to the same country in Africa. One visit saw copious coverage by media outlets. The second visit appears to be more covert and less of a photo-op and more focused on results.

When Pope Leo XIV made his first pilgrimage to Africa earlier this year one of the stops was in Cameroon. As with the usual visits by the Pontiff, he met with local government and Church leaders. The Holy Father also went to Buea, which is the capital of the Northern Cameroons province, to host a meeting regarding restoring Peace in the region. Beforehand, there was an schedule made available regarding the Papal visit to Africa.

Just last week Archbishop Sarah Mullaly the Archbishop of Canterbury also visited Cameroon. Her visit was a historic occasion as she is the very first Archbishop of Canterbury to visit Cameroon. Previously she also visited Ghana as well. One has to wonder why there wasn’t more interest in this particular visit.

The archbishop also visited the restive Southwestern part of the country as well. She would be quoted as saying “Peace requires genuine and inclusive dialogue – it needs to have everyone around the table. That requires courage; it requires strength, and it requires commitment at every level of society, but particularly those in authority.” She would be further quoted “As Shepherd and Pastor, I urge you to follow in this way of Christ, who is the bringer of peace.”

During her visit she also met with Prime Minister Chief Dr. Joseph Dion Nguete on behalf of President Paul Biya. There are concerns about a potential succession crisis as Mr. Biya has not been seen in public since July 6^th.

When Pope Leo XIV made his visit speculation ran rife regarding who would represent the Cameroonian Government when the Holy Father made his visit to Yaounde. This was not a major factor during the visit by the archbishop.

Having both leaders visit the area where the separatist conflict is simmering while supporting peace efforts is both commendable and noteworthy. Could both the Vatican and Canterbury both breathe new life into a new mediation effort? An even better question may be who will lead this effort?

The efforts by Switzerland who wanted to have the United States be the co-partners went nowhere as it was felt that Yaounde was not serious in negotiating a settlement but felt that it could resolve this conflict solely using arms. When President Biya leaves the scene the question of how seriously the next leader will be in resolving this issue will rise.

The question is not if Cameroon will slide further into crisis, but when it will begin. The efforts at resolving a diplomatic solution are already underway and this is a situation that will need to be monitored.

Doing things at the last minute. At times it’s necessary due to unforeseen factors. However, in politics this appears to be a case we need to show that we resolved an important issue before we go on recess.

This scenario often refers to the legislative branch in August and before they wrap up the calendar year before Christmas. This month this scenario can be used against the White House as they sent a list of eight nominees to the Senate. The important thing to note is that these nominations appear to resolve an issue that has plagued the second Trump Administration. That issue is their presence in Africa.

The nominees are:

William Flens, of the District of Columbia, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Republic of Chad.

Marc Dillard, of Virginia, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Republic of Madagascar, and to serve concurrently and without additional compensation as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Union of the Comoros.

Charles Goodman III, of Florida, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Togolese Republic.

Keith Heffern, of Virginia, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Gabonese Republic.

Jessica Long, of Virginia, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania.

Peter Lord, of Florida, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Republic of Benin.

John McIntyre, of Texas, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Republic of Malawi.

And

Nutan Patel, of California, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Republic of Cabo Verde.

The list is interesting. Some of these nations are the targets of some interesting diplomacy. Chad due to its proximity to and role in the ongoing proxy war in Sudan. Mauritania currently has the unenviable position of replacing both France and Algeria of supporting the Jihadist-Azawad separatist alliance by the current junta in Bamako.

The most optimism must center around Benin after it had a peaceful political transition earlier this year. That is quite a feat regarding the militancy that has spread into the country from Niger in the north and Nigeria in the east. Madagascar and the Comoros present unique challenges as Russia has set up shop in Madagascar while the Comoros are perennially listed as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) under the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) for the policy of hostilities towards religious minorities.

The West African Country of Gabon over the last few years had a long-standing incumbent removed after a military coup then rewarded the instigator of said removal with a term as President. This will need to be monitored.

In a previous posting of Confused Eagle, we reported on how Togo is becoming a new entry point for Afrika Corps for logistical support for the mission in Mali. Yet it has decent security ties with the U.S. and a State Partnership Deal with North Dakota.

Malawi is one of those countries that often gets overlooked due to other issues in the region. (African Great Lakes area) Two areas that are concerning are the infrastructure specifically the road network and allegations of corruption.

While the Senate is in recess for the next six weeks, the professional staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee should be doing their own background checks so that hearings can be scheduled, and these posts can be filled. Over the last few Congresses, the sloth in the nomination process has been excruciating to witness.

These positions need to be filled. We are halfway there with the nominations....

There are times when a story captures our attention for a fleeting moment before it drops off the radar. The recent brief excitement regarding the reports of the Trump Administration is considering launching Military Strikes created a brief hoopla that quickly fizzled out. The recent brief excitement regarding the reports of the Trump Administration is considering launching Military Strikes created a brief hoopla that quickly fizzled.

Despite this story the situation in Mali has not improved. Shortly after Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Frank Garcia left Bamako reports emerged that another convoy of the Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) was ambushed in the northern part of the country with reports heavy casualties and several soldiers captured.

It was during this time that reports and imagery showed that a new shipment of armored vehicles was delivered to the Wagner/Afrika Corps elements in Mali. The point of ingress should pique the interest of certain people in Washington.

The entry point was Lome, Togo. The reason for this choice is straightforward. The choice of Lome consolidates the current pipeline by which equipment is delivered to the country. The security situation along Mali’s western borders is so problematic currently that whenever a fuel convoy reaches Bamako that event becomes both noteworthy in the news cycle and as a point of celebration in the city.

Should we be surprised that Togo is a new entry point for Russia in West Africa? Sadly, that answer is no. Over the last year Moscow has been cultivating relations with Lome with the keystone being a state visit to Russia by Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe last November which had the goal of “improving bilateral ties “in areas such as security, trade and strategic development.

The Gulf of Guinea is a flash point to some analysts. Western Powers have been keen upon improving security ties in the region after the withdrawal of French Troops from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso left a huge void. The late Yevgeny Prighozin thought that his Security Group Wagner would be adequate to fill that void. To this very day the Russians continue to struggle in this mission. Ironically, the group appears to be making the same strategic and tactical mistakes that were made and tactical mistakes that were made under Operation Barkhane.

This shift towards Russia presents a challenge to the United States as well. During the long and tedious peace negotiations between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda which led to a peace deal a year ago the AU appointed someone to represent them during this process. What country was chosen? The choice of the AU was Togo.

Should the United States be concerned regarding this shift? The easy answer is that it should be . The Gnassingbe Family has ruled the country after gaining power as a result of a coup in 1967. The current President assumed power in 2005 and has had credible elections in 2015. According to the U.S. Embassy webpage the status of U.S.-Togolese relations is defined as The United States and Togo have had generally good relations, and the United States seeks to work with Togo to consolidate democratic gains and economic growth. The U.S. has also been assisting with improvements to the Togolese Security Sector.

If there is a collapse in relations between Washington and Lome, the relationship with the Security Sector will be an area to watch. There is very little trade between these two countries, so an increase in tariffs or sanctions may not be a viable option.

However, this situation is one that needs to be watched...

This post was not planned. There are times where events take place in certain countries that create interest in why the event took place and even who benefits from the timing of such an event. Not to mention, the conspiracy theories that are created are often entertaining as well.

There are instances when elections in Africa draw major international interest. Often that comes from the International News Outlets, often it comes from intelligence services or other nefarious actors that have an agenda which they need to be victorious. Often these actions are on the covert side of the action scale.

However, the events that took place towards the end of July will draw copious amounts of attention to an election that takes place next month.

The world was stunned by the images that originated from the Spanish enclave of Cueta. Several thousand people stormed across the border from Morocco. The chaos led to dozens of people being killed during the event. The event ended abruptly and that is where the questions began. Notably who was behind this event? And an even better question why now?

Why now questions may be easier to answer first. On September 23rd, the country will head to the polls to elect 395 new members of the House of Representatives. Under this system, 198 seats are needed to form a majority government. The current leadership is a coalition government comprised of the National Rally of Independents, the Istiqlal Party and the Authenticity and Modernity Party. The leader of the National Rally of Independents Aziz Akhannouch is the current Prime Minister after being nominated by King Mohammed VI.

This is where the speculation begins to run rife. There were accusations that the Moroccan Government orchestrated the incursion either on behest of U.S. President Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It is true that Morocco signed onto the Abraham Accords in recent years this arguement screams of a party seeking an issue to use against the current coalition in the upcoming elections.

Another argument is that the incursion happened to punish the current left-wing Government in Spain led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. The current Government has been accused by many detractors of having a pro-Hamas and anti-Israel bias. Tensions between Rabat and Madrid remain high as the current Spanish Government also supports the Algerian position regarding the future of the Spanish Sahara (Rio de Oro) during the negotiations between the two North African neighbors.

In contrast the country has been welcoming to some of the migrant activity by proving as a point of ingress to the European Union. Migration has been a historic source of tensions between Rabat and Madrid going back to the dying days of the regime of Francisco Franco and the authoritarian government.

However, there have been some interesting charges regarding the recent incursion. Hundreds of individuals claim to have received a text message stating that the border crossings were open. That itself suggests that it wasn’t the Moroccan Government that sent the texts. At the very least this would be an unforced error and why take this action weeks before an election? Now an opposition party or even some criminal elements may be behind this. If there is some form of controversy such as a delay in the release of the polls results or if there is a runoff, an opportunity, then presents itself that would be exploited to their advantage.

As a result of the events at Cuelta there will be more people showing some interest now in these polls. To some it is obvious that there is an entity pulling the strings behind the scenes. Then the question to be asked is which party and candidate do they prefer in power?

It appears that the European Union (EU) is once again making a concerted effort to keep tabs on the Russian Shadow Fleet. This effort will be focused on some key choke points that affect not just Global Security but also some African Flashpoints as well. This will be conducted by Naval assets that are already deployed off Africa.

It has been announced that naval assets assigned to Operation Atalanta would be joining their counterparts assigned to Operation Aspides in recent weeks to observe the estimated 400 to 600 vessels that Russian President Vladimir Putin uses for crude oil and fuel exports. There are additional estimates that place the total number of ships in this fleet at around 1,400. Currently the EU, Great Britain and the United States have sanctioned between 120 and 180 ships.

Speaking to Defenceweb a South African portal that covers African Security Issues, A spokesman for the EU addressed the expansion of the missions as “ ensuring maritime situation awareness in their AoOs by collecting information, in addition to data necessary to protect vessels, on arms trafficking and shadow fleets”

Operation Atalanta began in 2008 in response to the increasing Piracy concerns off the coast of Somalia that was targeting vessels contracted to the World Food Program (WFP) supplying nutrition to Somalia and other countries in the region including South Sudan.

Operation Aspides is the EU Naval Force that patrols the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Northwestern Indian Ocean. The key role of this mission is Maritime Security. This mission has a maximum of three naval platforms along with fixed and rotary winged aircraft to execute its mission and other taskings.

One may ask if these commands interact with U.S. Military assets in the region. The answer to that question is in the affirmative. The Naval Element of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) currently hosts the Combined Maritime Forces. The CMF has the responsibility of providing security to civilian maritime traffic by conducting both counter-piracy and counter-terrorism operations in this heavily traveled region.

There are three specific CMFs that the EU Operations cooperate with. They are Combined Task Force (CTF) 150 which covers Maritime Security and Counterterrorism, CTF 151 which conducts Counter Piracy Operations and CTF 153 which has the specific task of Red Sea Protection.

It should be noted that earlier this year the USS Pickney intercepted one of the ships in the Shadow Fleet that was under sanction. The Sevan was intercepted trying to exit the Strait of Hormuz during the current conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The ship was forced to return to Iran.

The Sevan interception raises an interesting question. How will continued kinetic operations between the United States and Iran affect the U.S. role in maritime security in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf?

The Houthis did briefly announce a blockade against Saudi Shipping in the Red Sea. This move by the Kingdom is an effort to ensure that its Petroleum products reach the marketplace without Iranian interference. It is also known that Egypt is paying a huge price in the conflict due to decreased revenues from the Suez Canal. One can only imagine the costs being inflicted on Port Sudan where a proxy war still rages and Djibouti which has seen insurance costs to cargo being delivered there spike since the Houthis began their operation.

Having the Fifth Fleet deployed northward towards the Straits of Hormuz creates the impression that the situation in the Horn of Africa is taking a backseat to American Interests. However further instability in Somalia along with the conflict may lead to a return of piracy in the region.

The Russian Shadow Fleet could use the current conflict between the U.S. and Iran as a distraction. It could also find new safe havens to hide from the eyes of the EU and the U.S. Navy. Right now, that is a simple goal for the Russians.

One valid criticism of the Trump Administration has been the use of temporary or acting leaders in key positions of agencies and some military commands. However, the Administration should receive kudos for moving to fill a key position.

On July 23rd, the Pentagon announced that Lt. Gen. Kevin D. Admiral would be the next leader tasked with leading the U.S. Army Europe and Africa Theater. He replaces Gen Christopher Donahue who served for 18 months (about 1 and a half years) before surprisingly stepping down earlier this month. During this interim period, Maj. Gen. Christopher Norrie led the command.

Currently Gen Admiral is the commander of both III Corps and Fort Hood, Texas. Previously he commanded the 1^st Calvary Division at Fort Hood and in Poland. He also served as director of force management in the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7.

This command is one of the key leadership posts in the US Military. The total number of countries that it interacts with for exercises and other situations is 104. The total covers both Europe and Africa.

There are a couple of areas in Africa that Lt. Gen. Admiral will most likely be asked about what operations in the future will look like. The most obvious questions will arise regarding Nigeria. Since Christmas Day Eve 2025, the US has launched missile strikes against militants, deployed Special Forces and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) platforms to the country. We know that the Special Forces have left Nigeria and have been deployed to Cameroon as well.

This move should not surprise the casual observer as the security challenges within Cameroon mirror the challenges taking place in Nigeria. In several instances, the same nefarious actors are presenting the same risk factors in both countries. At the bare minimum, Lt. Gen. Admiral should be expected to provide an update regarding plans for capacity building in both countries.

Another area where the General’s input will be expected will be the new AFRICOM (Africa Command) Security Strategy that was released in Addis Ababa on July 27^th.

The strategy was unveiled during the African Logistics Communications Symposium has the goal of expanding military cooperation, improving defense logistics systems and strengthening security partnerships with African countries. One motivation for this new strategy is the growing concern within Washington over the improved capabilities of armed groups operating across Africa.

The focal points of the strategy are military supply chains, secure communications, cooperation between armed forces, defense training and what U.S. Officials described as broader economic partnerships linked to security development. Based on what was stated in Addis and since the U.S. Army organizes most of the land-based exercises that the U.S. organizes with their partners in Africa this promises to be some interesting feedback provided by Lt. Gen. Admiral.

At the symposium Ervin J. Massinga the U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia outlined what can be construed as the diplomatic objectives of the United States. The Ambassador stated, “Washington wants to work with African Countries as equal partners while supporting priorities established by those governments.”

The Ambassador would further state “U.S. cooperation will focus on strengthening security institutions, improving military training programs and supporting effective defense procurement systems”. This is another avenue where the new commander should expect to field some interesting and potentially challenging questions.

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Yes, this is one of Newton’s Three Law’s Motion. However, this principle will often play out in a similar fashion in the political world. Although the reactions to what initially takes place can be seen as overkill.

Earlier this month Senator Jim Risch (R-ID) who is the current Chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee reacted to the closing of the Nation Media Group offices in Kampala and other human rights abuses by suggesting that the time may be right for the United States to conduct a policy review regarding Uganda. It appears that there is a reaction from the Ugandan government.

What does this reaction look like? The Ugandan Government used a traditional method that has been used both in domestic politics and international affairs. They went to K St. To retain the services of the lobbying community. One of the most interesting aspects of this story regards the firms that were retained. These hires were one of the few bipartisan acts since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

The first hire was a firm that was hired by a previous contractor to the Ugandan Embassy in Washington. Moran Global Strategies, which was founded by James Moran a former Democratic Congressman from Virginia recently engaged with Skyline Capitol LLC another firm based in Washington, DC. Under the terms of the deal Skyline Capitol will receive a flat retainer of 20,000 USD to advise the Embassy on outreach to key US policymakers, supporting engagement with members of Congress and other stakeholders, providing media relations services, and offering strategic communications support. The total amount to be paid over a year is 240,000 USD per year.

Skyline Capitol will be handling the day-to-day operations to fulfill their part of the contract while Moran Global Strategies will handle the broader client relationship.

This move comes six months after the embassy hired Scribe Strategies & Advisors. A search of the records at the U.S. Justice Department doesn’t list a cash value for the compensation for the services that are being provided. According to the firm’s webpage Uganda isn’t the only African Client that they represent. These countries are Benin, Gabon and Kenya.

This firm has an interesting pedigree. Its founder worked in the White House during the administration of George Herbert Walker Bush. The firm is highly regarded in DC circles as well.

Reporting from sources friendly to the Ugandan Government indicate that one of the reasons for the new lobbying efforts was to react to a move by the State Department. The decision to raise the travel warning to level 4 (do not travel to) was one factor in the recent flurry of activity. Another reason was to ensure the status under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. (AGOA)

Even though President Museveni was sworn in for another term as President there are concerns that a post-Museveni Uganda may yield a power struggle. The eldest son, who is the head of the Army, is the current heir apparent. His actions in recent weeks have raised concern in various communities.

However, by reaching out to K St. The Ugandan Government realizes that the optics currently emanating from Uganda are harmful and their view of resolving the issue is not fixing what is taking place but spending money in Washington. This formula doen’t always work..

When a new diplomat makes their first official trip overseas, the locations of the visit may often reveal what the priorities are for their office.

The Honorable Frank Garcia who was recently confirmed as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs by the U.S. Senate has made his first trip to Africa. His weeklong trip from July 11^th through the 18^th took him to three countries. They were Nigeria, Cote D’Ivoire and Mali.

Nigeria has been a hot button issue for the Republicans during the second Trump Administration after the President designated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern over the attacks against Christians and specifically since the Christmas Day eve missile strikes. Over the first half of the year there has been a concerted effort by the White House to improve the struggling security sector in Nigeria while ensuring that the plights of the Christians Nigeria while ensuring that the plights of the Christians are not ignored.

Assistant Secretary Garcia was briefed by the Nigerian Military about how there have been improvements ever since the U.S. started providing and sharing Intelligence and new tactics.

However shortly after the Assistant Secretary left Nigeria the U.S. House of Representatives entered the chat as the youth would say. On July 15th, the House passed the National Security, Department of State and Related Programs Appropriations Act by a vote of 217-209. The bill has to be passed by the Senate and signed by President Trump before becoming law. This measure contains specific language regarding Nigeria.

The bill mentions “holding foreign governments and bad actors accountable for persecuting people of faith”. Furthermore, the bill calls for “restricting assistance to Nigeria until measurable actions are taken to protect Christian communities suffering from religious violence.” There is also additional language that will provide “support for religious freedom programs abroad and religious freedom protections for faith-based organizations delivering foreign aid.” If some of this language seems familiar the same syntax was used in the report that Congressman Riley Moore delivered to the White House earlier this year regarding the Nigerian Christians.

The Nigerian Government and their lobbyists here in Washington are surprised that this bill passed the House. They shouldn’t be. Although the Government of Bola Tinubu is in power and has been abysmal in their response to these killings the previous Administrations of Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari failed to address the killings from when they first emerged in Borno State and then exploded across the Middle Belt. Yes, that means this has been a problem for more than a decade.

Congress or more specifically the House controls the purse strings and has the ability not only to allocate funds but to also require reports on how these funds are used and sometimes under what conditions they are used and even request reports from the Executive Branch regarding if benchmarks are being met or ignored. There will be more to this story, and we should expect some major lobbying on the Senate side to restore funding to Nigeria.

The second stop on this trip was in Cote D’Ivoire. This is a strategically important country in West Africa bordered on the North by the Sahel States and the insurgencies that continue to ravage them and on the Gulf of Guinea an often-overlooked water way by most security analysts.

The country has been a host to some recent exercises organized by AFRICOM and besides the hope for improved Commercial Ties there was a major security pact signed. Officially, Cote D’Ivoire has joined the State Partnership Program by formally signing a deal with the Pennsylvania National Guard. This will allow the country to receive specialized military training from the Guard units.

The final stop was Bamako. Mali is a country in crisis. Earlier this spring a surprise raid by both Islamic Militants and Azawad Separatists morphed into a decapacitation strike which killed the defense minister. Afrika Corps a Russian Private Military Company has been scaling back its presence in Northern Mali.

The White House sees an opportunity here to have a quick victory over Russia, however the junta in Bamako is hostile towards the West including the United States. There is not a sense of survival mode currently in Bamako, but that day is getting closer.

This is just another trip for a Diplomat.

Capacity Building. This is a term that is often bandied about by some while others don’t comprehend what is being said. The vagueness of the concept to those outside the security space is paramount.

The term is often used to describe how infantry or engineering troops learn to react and overcome complex threats to national security such as insurgencies, natural disasters, and even epidemics. However, there is one branch of the military that is often overlooked when it pertains to their capacity, and that is the Chaplain Corps.

How can this issue be resolved? A symposium organized by AFRICOM (U.S. Africa Command) and the Ghanian Armed Forces that began on July 14 and ended on July 16 had the goal of addressing this impasse. By focusing on the spiritual readiness and emotional well-being of service members, the symposium helps build a unified, resilient military coalition capable of addressing shared security challenges. The West Africa Religious Affairs Symposium was held in Accra, Ghana and ten regional states attended the event.

The Participating nations include Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Togo. The event also features U.S. military personnel representing the State Partnership Programs of California, the District of Columbia, Michigan, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

After wrapping up the U.S. State Department organized a digital briefing where Colonel Keven Forrister the Chaplain for Africa Command and his senior enlisted leader Sergeant Major Herinah Assah.

In his opening remarks, the Chaplain addressed two crucial questions. Which is why have the summit now and what is the strategic value of doing so? His answers to these questions were straight forward. “The timing is critical because our partner forces are operating in increasingly complex, high-stress security environments. There are threats and challenges many of our partner nations face that impacts this critical region. The 10 West African nations gathered here this week are completely united in their commitment to provide for and protect the spiritual well-being of their forces, and they do so in a way that honors the faith traditions and the values of the various service members”.

The Chaplain would further address the importance of this symposium: “This symposium simply brings these religious leaders together to broaden their cooperation and commitment to use religion as a unifying force for peace and stability. If I were explaining the strategic value of WARAS to policymakers in Washington, I would say this: Across Africa, there is not a single country where religion is not a significant factor influencing the people and the culture. In the military, we call this a center of gravity. Regional stability and prosperity require institutional strength, ethical practice, and the moral foundation that religious traditions provide. Chaplains possess a unique and strategic advantage of being able to instill those virtues and values in their respective military communities.

Because we operate in harmony with our respective faith traditions, chaplains can engage partner nations on the foundational levels of culture, faith, and shared humanity that transcends traditional barriers. By bringing these religious leaders together, we are building bridges where others cannot, establishing a shared framework of trust and interoperability across West Africa.”

Topics that were addressed in the symposium according to a Press Release by AFRICOM included post-traumatic stress disorder, moral injury, ethics, enlisted leader development, ministry in combat, and family care.

The last paragraph in the AFRICOM Press Release is succinct and a great ending point.

“Through events like WARAS, AFRICOM remains committed to strengthening ties with its African partners. By empowering military chaplains to foster ethical leadership and spiritual resilience, the U.S. and its allies are building a unified front capable of countering shared threats and maintaining regional stability across the continent.”

We often hear that the Congo Wars in the late 1990s referred as Africa’s World War for the number of countries that intervened to support either the victorious insurgency or the struggling Congolese Government. Central Africa continues to feel the ramifications of that conflict to this very day.

It appears that the Sudan conflict is showing similar signals that were presented three decades ago in Congo. What began as a power struggle between two generals in Khartoum morphed into a civil war which has then further evolved into a proxy war with regional mid-level regional powers such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia now involved in the fighting.

We know that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Hemeti has received copious assistance from the Emirates in recruiting and funding mercenaries from Colombia. In recent weeks the United States has sanctioned entities in Panama for creating this pipeline. However, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Burhan reportedly undertook a covert operation where a team of the Sudanese Military travelled to Somalia and began training 5,107 fighters of the Somali National Army (SNA). It has been reported that 2,000 of the fighters whose training is being funded by Saudi Arabia are from Galmudug State. There are murmurings that these troops are being quietly sent to Sudan to bolster the SAF

This is not the only direction that the conflict is spreading to either. In late June reports of clashes in the Central African Republic region near the Sudanese border emerged.

On June 30^th an attack took place near the town of Am Dafock in the Vakaga prefecture. The positions of the Central Africa Armed Forces (FACA) and their Wagner Partners were overrun by 700 fighters from the Patriotic Action Alliance (Alliance du Sursaut Patriotique or ASP). This event was the most significant security incident along the Sudan-CAR border since 2023. The only reported casualties during the attack were the wounding of three UN Peacekeepers. The forces of FACA-Wagner would counterattack and recapture the town on July 5^th.

We know that the ASP is a relatively new active group. It was founded in Mid-May 2026. Nourredine Adam, who is long standing Warlord in the country, is said to be actively recruiting for ASP. Haroun Gaye, another militant who was active with Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) is reportedly in charge of military operations. There are also reports that former members of Seleka were recruited for the assault on Am Dafock.

The ASP is believed to have launched this event to gauge the response of the FACA-Wagner alliance. This would be the most logical course of action as the UN Mission in CAR MINUSCA closed at least two dozen bases in the country last month. The reason cited was a reduction in funding for the mission by the United States. However, the bases in Vakaga prefecture are still staffed by UN Peacekeepers.

Another issue also presents itself. Did the RSF (Rapid Support Forces) in Sudan assist the ASP in this attack? This question presents some challenges to answer. There are ties between the RSF and the ASP. It has been reported that the RSF has recruited fighters from the group allied with Adam since 2023. Relations between the RSF and Wagner soured in 2024 when Moscow shifted its position from supporting the RSF with weapons and cash to supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces.

Another wrinkle that would support the RSF supporting this new group is that this could be payback. There were reports that Wagner fighters entered South Darfur and looted several villages. Darfur is the power base for the RSF, so a reprisal for these events should have been expected in CAR.

The question of whether this incident is a one-off or having the potential of removing an active supporter may be too early to answer, but the longer the conflict festers and affects the region, the longer and more complicated the peace process will be. This will further complicate the US efforts to negotiate a ceasefire.

Thank you for having me.

this week on Wednesday afternoon at 2 p.m., the Lantos Commission is going to have a hearing on the deterioration of the human rights climate within Ethiopia. This is very, very timely because often when I discuss politics in Washington, I use the term, politics is often like comedy.

Timing is everything. Right. With this hearing coming so soon after the controversial elections, which had a low turnout and saw a consolidation of power for Abi Ahmed’s party. And then this is this week.

Of course.

A brief overview of the current leadership

Abi Ahmed is the current prime minister of Ethiopia. He’s the head of government. Okay. And what we’re and all because also one of the things that has also been a concern is also Ethiopia’s growing role in the Sudan proxy war.

A quick snapshot of what’s going on

Because I’m one of the few that has the position that what the conflict going on inside Sudan is no longer an internal squabble between two generals. You’re seeing mid-level regional power powers such as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates in Turkey, they each have their own back international. And people need to understand on this as well

Ethiopian Groups mentioned in New Sudan Resolution in the Senate

Yes, because also recently, SR 4726, which is the Peace in Sudan Act. Peace is actually an acronym preventing external aggression and conflict escalation. And they have a list of entities that are known to be found, I should say known to be that have been found by members of the U.S. Senate to be participants in the fighting

Brief History

There are there are two Ethiopian groups now on that that are been named the TPLF, which we have we all know since the 1990s Tigrayan the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front. Okay, they are the former ruling government, .

Their main leader was Melis Zenawi, who passed away several years ago and who was replaced after his death by the current leader, Abey Ahmed. As we have seen an increase in attacks against some Orthodox Christian communities. These were some of those incidents that took place on the weekend of the of the elections for Ethiopian parliament.

Ethiopia is very predominantly mentioned in both the Old and New Testament. Because, as we all know, one of the apostles met a servant of Candace the Queen. I believe it was actually, I believe it may have been Philip, and he was a passage in the Old Testament to him, and then that’s how because everyone, everybody talks about how old the the Christian communities are in Egypt with the and with the Armenians and the Georgians, Ethiopia, the Ethiopian community is actually one of the older Christian communities in the world.

so anyway, yeah, but the population, I believe it, I haven’t looked at it lately. I believe it’s like 70, 70, 30 Christians to Muslims. (The number of Christians in Ethiopia is 61.6%) But as a lot of the internal squabbles within Ethiopia have always been political motivated ever since the ouster of the Derge.

Another Source of Tension

But and there’s also a sense that Ethiopia is also the author of some of the more recent conflict with the GERD project, which was the project that built the dam on the White Navarre, which they’re actually using to provide hydroelectric power to other countries, to the Somaliland region of Somalia, to Djibouti, to South Sudan

New Protests against the TPLF

I do know, as breaking now, there is a report that over the weekend they’re having protests against the senior leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front because of the reported conscription of teenage boys to plenish their ranks. This is a story. This is the report that states that this has been going on for at least since November 2025. So it appears they’re replenishing the ranks, and that could mean they’re in the they could be launching another offensive, or they’re expecting the government to launch another offensive against whom by them doing that that that also could trigger an action by the U.S. government. ( The use of Child Soldiers could trigger Sanctions from the US).

Why is this happening?

Against themselves. Yes, they’re doing this against Addis. Yes, there are also reports that the Ethiopian People’s Defense Forces, which is the army for government, they’re also massing in Tigray as well.

Who is driving the Conflict?

That’s always a great question because, as as I briefly mentioned before, before the ascendancy of Abi Ahmad as prime minister, the TPLF were the ruling party in Ethiopia. So now they’re on the outside again, they’re on the outside looking in and they and they want to hold that position of power again.

Which of the Neighbors are involved?

That’s a great question. When they had the fighting back during the Biden administration, which led to a peace agreement in 2022, one of the ENDF main supporters was Eritrea.

So, to a sense, yes, the TPLF wants back into power by any means necessary, and another wrinkle has actually been thrust upon it in recent weeks as there are reports that the Ethiopian government has is now supporting the rapid support forces, the RSF, the the genocidal fighters from Darfur. And RSF stands for Rapid Support Forces. Okay.

There is basically a military regime that was loyal to former Sudanese leader Bashir. Okay. And now there is talks that to punish ETH that the Sudanese armed forces led by General Burhan, they will support the TPLF.

Why others are interested

Several entities we’ve noticed, from the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates, even to a lesser extent, Iran, they haven’t provided weapons to the government, to the government of Ethiopia, it obviously to protect themselves or to be able to engage in the fight that to demolish the other structure.

One is that part of this is part of what’s going on is because Ethiopia wants access to the sea. Okay. After Eritrea gained independence in 1994, Ethiopia does not have a direct access to the they’re landlocked, to either the Red Sea, their landlocked. Okay, which is why we saw the MoU with Somaliland a couple years ago.

A Brief Bio

I had the distinction of serving in the Marine Corps. Oh, yeah. Plus, I did one year in the Army Reserves.

Discussing the Trump Admin’s decision to stop funding the Peacekeeping Mission in Somalia

Oh, about the holiday surprise was the Trump administration notified the United Nations and the African Union that it was it was going to stop all funding to the current peacekeeping operations in Somalia. Basically, as part of the digital, the United States was underwriting the cost of moving of logistics for the peacekeepers.

Now, what I mean by that is providing transportation for them, food and medical care. And how much did that how much how much money was that? The budget for the last year was $165 million.

Good Idea or Bad?

I think the answer to that, and the Trump administration said it best, is that when it comes to like security sector reform and other issues, which the pace is going for is not going as quick as Washington has light. I mean, we don’t, I don’t have the exact number in front of me, but the US, and this was a citation by the Trump administration has spent billions of dollars in security sector reform in Somalia since 2006, and there has been no noticeable improvement in Somalia itself?

Blowback from Somalia?

When it comes to Ethiopia specifically, the only main entity that has shown an interest regarding Ethiopia is al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab has expressed a desired interest to strike inside Ethiopia.

Okay. In the past, this group and this group have actively fundraised raised and even suicide bombers from Minnesota. Specifically, the Congressional District of Ilhan Omar

Kenya Concerns

The US was base that was attacked in Kenya a couple years ago. Yeah.

That was conducting intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance flights over Italia. They were monitoring their activities, so that’s why the base was attacked, which resulted in the fatality of one US soldier. No, the withdrawal of US funding from the withdrawal of US funding from this mission has caused panic in Addis Abandon. But also, the headquarters of the AU, which oversees the peacekeeping mission, and in New York at the Department of Peacekeeping Operations at the UN Security Council.

They are now struggling to find new sources for funding.

They don’t they found this out Thursday. So, we’re giving so the administration’s literally giving them six months to find new sources of funding.

Other issues with Somalia

this is not the only instance where the administration has been frustrated with the Somali government. Just let me explain that for one reason. Earlier this year, a warehouse for the World Food Program was looted in Mogadishu. This has specially fortified food for newborns, infants, women that need in maternity care, they need, the high, the special food has high iron things like that.

For children, for babies. The warehouse was looted. Yeah, the warehouse was looted, and some of the footage showed that the some of the looters were wearing the unit of the Somali National Army. Now the administration, all they did what all they said was just return the food, there’d be no problems.

The food was never returned to the warehouse. And that believe that angered people in the Trump administration.

I can’t remember offhand for who deals with the peacekeeping operations in New York, so I’m assuming that this could be our ambassador to the UN because that’s the funding goes to the Security Council and whatever, and that way is for the funding. But from my understanding, the instance about the White House being alluded, that’s a directive from Secretary Rubio.

Selective Reporting on East Africa

if those are on social media and follow certain accounts or media outlets from East Africa, it seems like every week we hear potential of hostilities re-erupting again, specifically in Tigray. You we hear nothing about Amhara, and we don’t, nor do we hear anything about the Oriomo region near the border with Somalia, which is where which brings the Al Shaba back into play, and that’s the most logical idea, although they would actually try and do something.

Current Map of Africa

There are 55 recognized African countries.

South Sudan is the most recent one. All right, so if you but there are several other areas which are which are advocating for independence, such as the Rio d’Oro region of Morocco, Smile Land, which is which that also has the advocates for the independence of Smiley and realized that has a role to play in the in the in the Ethiopian debacle because as because when I say that I’m specifically mentioned looking for an access to the sea. Okay. So that brings the smile and also the actions of the Somali federal government in Mogadishu, which is basically right now into a Turks it Turkish proxy right now.

Regarding China

The best picture I can paint is has been painted by China first. They have they have been a party on the Security Council that has vetoed every resolution that has sought to reign in the fighting in Sudan. Well, they have we do so we do know that they have interest in some of the gold sector, which also brings in the United Arab Emirates, which is also another heavy investor in Ethiopia.

Regarding the AU and other Bodies

When it comes to this current situation with the fighting in T with between Ethiopia and Tigray, and also what’s going on in Sudan, the AU has been pretty much absent for whatever reason. There’s a regional body called IGAD, it’s like the intergovernmental agency for development, which Sudan is a member, South Sudan is a member, Ethiopia is a member, Djibouti, Sudan, I mean Somalia. Sorry for repeating Sudan twice.

They have been they have tried to organize ceasefire talks in Sudan. We have not seen any effort of them to negotiate between in either the Tigray or Amhara crisis crises. So, like the AU and the and IGAD have been absent in both crises for whatever reason

It seems pretty bizarre. That this crisis is huge. So, this crisis is almost to the point where we must start looking at the horn like how we treat Sahel. Like all these crises are interconnected, and the most difficult part is trying to find where the point of interconnectivity is.

Thoughts about Nigeria

As going to that in the past, going back to our friend President Erdogan of Turkey. Back in 2014, there was a story about how two two Turkish airliners were chartered and flown into northern Nigeria, and they dispensed weapons to Boko Haram. One of the main Islamist groups operating in Nigeria. And they’re the ones that were responsible for kidnapping those girls.

sadly, in Nigeria, kidnapping is a for-profit business.

Now, this also in the last week, you’ve seen some of the Christian advocates in Nigeria. They’re all upset because there was a report the US was with was withdrawing troops from Nigeria. Because we all know that the US military took out a senior al-Qaeda leader or was it ISIS in the country and captured a large amount of intelligence, which now they’re used. Like some of the troops, some of the US troops are now actually inside Cameroon in the northern part of Cameroon, doing regathering information.

But then the action of the Nigerian Christians was like, the Americans are leaving already. But I actually have a theory about that. I don’t like it, but it may actually be let’s spit it out. The United States is still gathering intelligence, conducting surveillance missions, things like that.

Yeah, if we consider the timeline that the US troops went into went into Nigeria for the first time to do the assessment after the Christmas Day missile strikes, the Trump administration would Trump would be facing the War Powers Act.

The War Powers Act, due to the timeline, that he would actually report to Congress what the mission is and considering the hostility that Congress has had toward operations with Iran and the potential of a house flip this fall because the Democrats have had really had a hands-all teaching with Nigeria besides lobbying. Any efforts that we that the Trump administration was taking would have to stop. Who understands it? Well Bulos is Tiffany’s father-in-law, who’s who’s also who’s all although he’s a Lebanese man, he does have substantial business interests in Nigeria.

He seems to understand the business aspects of the other continent well. So you talk about ISIS, obviously, and the Boko Haram in Nigeria. What is the counterpart then in places like Ethiopia and Somalia? Do they have ties in those countries?

I would be surprised that they’re not, if they wouldn’t have it. I mean, considering, I mean, I’m not sure of a specific number, but considering, that al-Shabaab, the Somali have a desired interest of attacking inside Ethiopia, which means that they do have a presence inside Ethiopia. We don’t know how large it is, but then it calls, but then that also raises questions about what the administration can do. Going back to the new counterterrorism strategy, which specifically highlights protecting African Christians as a plank of the new counterterrorism strategy.

But we’ve seen it already implement strikes in Nigeria which is a good thing.

Back to the Hearing

The International Crisis Group, they just they do a basic general overview on the human rights situation in refugees international, they handle they monitor a lot of the migration issues, internally displaced people, things like other that’s their testimony is going to be the one that I’m interested in the most because they will expect their presenter to provide an actual update on the total number of current IDPs. They talk about that. They talk about that they’ll be internally displaced people. They’re going to be talking about the conflict and instability that have left 1.9 million people (about twice the population of South Dakota) still displaced, and conflict-related sexual violence, that’s CRSV, remains rampant, and the underlying political, ethnic, and territorial disputes in northern Ethiopia and Oromia, which remain unresolved, and human rights organizations that have been documenting abuses such as extrajudicial execution.

Rape, it just bothers, and that’s one of the things that me is how many times in African conflicts rape has been used as a weapon of war. Well, that that is always a concern even with women in the military. We saw that. Yeah, we saw that off off in Congo, in the Congo Congo conflicts in the late 1990s.

Final Thoughts

We all hear about how the Fulani have been the most have been the group that have done the most damage to Christians and other Muslims in the country. The United States has no strategy or legal binding to do anything to the Fulani right now.

The reason why we had Christmas strikes is because the Lakawara, which are affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Maghreb, are the original guests of Al-Qaeda. I mean, they were Al-Qaeda before bin Laden took over. Because they started in Algeria after the 1992 presidential elections. Anyway, that strike was covered under the 2002 authorization of the USA military force, which is why we did that.

Summertime in Washington can be a challenging time for those doing business in the city. At one-point Great Britain considered being posted on the Potomac as a hardship post for their diplomats.

Another Christian advocacy group International Christian Concern has released its annual report which highlights areas around the world where they operate and have grave concerns regarding the plight of their fellow members of the Universal Church. One region covered in this report happens to be Africa.

As per other reports that document reported persecution in Africa, a common theme is once again presented. “Africa has become the global epicenter of terrorism. Nearly half of the world’s terror-related deaths now occur on the continent, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace. This is primarily driven by groups such as Boko Haram, the Islamic State West Africa Province, al-Shabab, and al-Qaida affiliates operating across the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and elsewhere. These insurgencies target Christians as symbols of Western influence or obstacles to their extremist ambitions. Churches are burned, villages massacred, and clergy abducted. In places like Nigeria, Christian communities have been pushed from ancestral lands, while in Burkina Faso, entire regions have fallen under jihadist control. “We also notice the lack of world interest while it pertains to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo also.

We have also seen that Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region in the world where Christianity is growing. It is not just Militant and other insurgent groups that are threatened by the mere presence of Christian Groups. It appears that governments are becoming hostile to some organized Christian groups as well. Quoting the overview again “in parts of East and Central Africa, governments have tightened restrictions on religious life, fearing that independent faith movements threaten their authority. Eritrea continues to imprison Christians in shipping containers and secret prisons. Ethiopia faces growing sectarian violence as religious nationalism intertwines with ethnic conflict. In Western Africa, 12 Nigerian states continue to enforce blasphemy laws, which criminalize unpopular religious expression”. Sometimes threats come from a place of disinterest. We have noticed over the last few years the targeting of recent converts to Christianity in eastern Uganda that has not drawn the interest of the Ugandan Government.

Much appreciation is due to the ICC for this report. It goes deeper than other reports that just presents the numbers of practicing Christians in the Country and their percentage of the population. It presents some of the underlying factors that are often overlooked or even ignored by some.

The factors that are listed could be ripped from the headlines. Poverty, Corruption, Access to or denial of access to resources are exploited by non-state actors to recruit the disenfranchised.

This may be one of the most concerning sentences ever written in a report. “As states falter, faith communities often become the last bastion of social stability, making them both indispensable and vulnerable.” The dangerous part of this statement is highlighted as when solutions are proposed; the faith-based community is often overlooked or at best considered to be an afterthought.

Two specific examples were highlighted. The situation in the Congo which has gradually become more violent as the Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP.) rampages through the eastern part of the country while the International Community focuses more on M23 and the support it gains from Rwanda.

The other example that was cited was Nigeria. The situation in that country has become a hot button issue in Washington. The Trump Administration has taken interest into the plight of the Christians suffering in Nigeria. For several years running 80% of the Christians who have been murdered for their faith have been killed in Nigeria. The country has seen fit to hire the DCI firm to strengthen the narrative that the Nigerian Government is a viable security partner for the US and that it has the problem under control.

There is one crucial point to remember. In January 2027 Nigeria will once again head to the polls. In several recent instances we have seen crackdowns against certain communities some faith based as a result of reactions to controversial elections. Let us hope that this scenario doesn’t play out again.

We have to love long holiday weekends. While the average citizen is enjoying the festivities and the break from the news cycles, often events occur which delays official responses and even reports, and other data points are released without the rigorous scrutiny that takes place during other times of the year.

During the leadup to the Independence Day Holiday here in the United States this scenario once again came to fruition. The social media feeds for advocates for the Somali Federal Government noticed this at first. It has now drawn comments from the Think Tanks in Washington and has been reported in the bulletins documenting major international news events.

What is the earth-shattering event that caught East Africa by surprise? The Trump Administration sent a letter to the African Union. In the letter the Administration announced that after the expiration of the mandate on December 31,2026 the United States will no longer support the United Nations Support Office in Somalia after the current mandate for the AUSOM expires.

The Administration has also signaled that it will not oppose the renewal of the AUSOM mandate by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the UN Charter through the end of the current mandate.

Washington has been a key financial provider to UNSOS whose budget for this year was estimated to be around 500 million USD. Some of this funding is used to pay for logistics, medical services and transportation of troops.

The budget for the AU mission last year was estimated to be around 150 million USD. A challenge has been providing adequate funding for the mission, which has led to a huge funding shortfall.

The African Union has since informed members of its Peace and Security Council of Washington’s decision, warning that it carried significant implications for the future of the mission. It has also called for a emergency Military Staff Committee to assess the future of the AU Mission.

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric confirmed the organization is engaging internally with partners on the decision, though diplomats warn the mission cannot continue without replacement UN support, jeopardizing security in Mogadishu.

In the note the Administration stated that the United States has invested billions of dollars in the Somali Security Sector since 2007 but reached the conclusion that Somali authorities have not made sufficient progress towards assuming full responsibility for either national security or defeating the militant group Al-Shabaab.

This was not the only criticism revealed in the Diplomatic Note. Washington also criticized the slow pace of Security Sector Reform, including efforts to strengthen the capabilities of the Somali National Army and transferring security responsibilities from international forces to Somali Institutions.

The United States also called upon the Somali Federal Government, federal member states, and all political stakeholders to overcome their differences, strengthen cooperation, and work towards building a self-reliant and stable Somalia capable of reducing its deependence on international assistance.

That statement is a critique of the political drama where the President and his supporters amended the Somali Constitution and creating a crisis where the term of office for the President is amended while the current incumbent remains in office despite his term in office ending more than a month ago. Tensions are rife between Mogadishu and the Puntland region. This is just one area of tension in a region where we often hear about conflict breaking out on an hourly basis.

Some analysts see the Trump Administration as being hostile towards Somalia. Those who have a certain business acumen feel that the lack of return in the investments by the United States are a cause for concern. Either way Somalia could become an issue during the Mid-Terms.

Is the era of the African Strongman returning? An interesting question to ponder as this relic of Cold War era politics appears to be taking hold in one country.

It was 48 hours ago when reports emerged from Kampala that members of the Ugandan Military raided the offices of the Nation Media Group. The action prevented the group from providing print newspapers and airing television programs. The social media platforms remained active providing digital content. As of 6 pm Kampala time on June 29th, the physical offices were still shuttered.

The question of who gave the order has been answered. The order came from General Muhoozi Kainerugaba who the head of the Ugandan People’s Defense Force is and is the son of current President Yoweri Museveni. When asked why he took this action He reportedly posted on social media that he hates a Free Press. The General is also known for his bombastic rhetoric. He has suggested in the past that, if necessary, he would send troops to Moscow from the Ukrainians and Israel from the Iranians.

The timing of this event suggests that there was an ulterior motive at work. On June 30^th Kissa Besigye the main leader of the political opposition who was kidnapped from Kenya in 2024 and charged with Treason was expected to have a hearing in his case. It was just a couple of weeks ago that Erias Lukwago was arrested also on orders from General Kainerugaba as well. He faces a separate court date later this month. A bail hearing will take place on July 3^rd

These two events are the most recent data points that suggest a potential backsliding in Democratic Norms in Uganda. Earlier this year the Ugandan Parliament passed what was called the “Sovereignty Bill” This bill which codifies how members of the Ugandan Diaspora can support their favorite political candidate at one point had language that would have limited Religious Activities in the country. The outgoing Parliament tabled a Qadhi Courts Bill that would have formalized a Sharia Courts system as authorized by the Ugandan Constitution.

That being said, the issue regarding the Qadhi Courts bill answered another question. For the last three years there have been reports emanating from the eastern part of the country that present a dark picture. On several instances Muslims who convert to Christianity along with the Pastors and Evangelists who teach them have been attacked and even killed.

One data point that stands out is that in these cases there are no arrests or investigations by the Security Forces. To the casual observer or the advocate, this seems to be an odd action to take. When the Qadhi courts are considered then the silence becomes clearer.

What action should be taken? If one Senator has his way, then an assessment of what to do can be considered.

In lieu of recent events Senator Jim Tisch (R-ID) who is the current chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has called for a Security Review to be conducted by the United States regarding Uganda.

There currently are two deployments by the UPDF that are currently noteworthy. First they are conducting joint patrol with FARDC (Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo) in Nord Kivu province of the DRC. The target of the joint operation is the Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP) which has been targeting Christians in that part of Congo.

Another current deployment is in Somalia. Once again there is an Islamist insurgency that is active, and the country is amid another electoral crisis. The AU Mission is in the process of gradually withdrawing from Somalia. That is another crisis to monitor as well.

Based on the data available it is time for a Security Review towards Uganda.