<![CDATA[Consus Consensus]]>

<![CDATA[Consus Consensus]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MXLJ!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c90a44c-84c5-4a4c-8d56-7c0c1802e148_1200x1200.pngConsus Consensushttps://consusconsensus.substack.comSubstackTue, 01 Sep 2026 15:07:11 GMT<![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-a24https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-a24Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:45:52 GMTFutures were stronger in overnight trade with soybeans and wheat leading corn. These two contracts were under more pressure in yesterday’s session, opening the door for fresh buying to surface. Corn did not see the pressure the other two contracts did, and with corn values at overbought levels, fresh buying was limited. The corn crop rating stabilized last week while soybeans saw further deterioration. More interest is falling on harvest though and actual yield data. The hot, dry finish to the US growing season is also gaining market attention, mainly its impact on test weight. This weather may also prevent additional late-season pod fill that we have seen in recent years. Weather will remain a factor into the US harvest, and with early corn planting underway in Brazil, the focus will soon shift back to South America.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

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]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-7efhttps://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-7efMon, 31 Aug 2026 18:51:54 GMTFutures were mixed to start Monday’s trade, but by this morning’s break all contracts were in the red. Month end profit taking and positioning were the primary causes of this pressure, although managed money was more interested in the outside markets and this drew interest away from the ag sector. Fighting between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend and energy values rallied as a result. US weather outlooks are mixed to start the week with several regions of the Corn Belt seeing precipitation, but this may be too little, too late for most areas, especially when it comes to corn production. We may see added test eight, but with harvest ready to begin in a few weeks, yields are likely set at this point. Futures are becoming technically overbought but this has failed to deter buying interest as fundamentals remain positive. We did see a jump in export interest on feed grains overnight, and this did offer support.

There was a flash sale on soybeans today with an unknown buyer taking 159,000 metric tons. No sales were listed on grains, but several small sales of feed wheat and corn were listed.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-3f8https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-3f8Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:49:50 GMTNearly all of the market attention to start the week is on geopolitical developments as fighting between the United States and Iran escalated over the weekend with both sides launching attacks on each other. This further reduces the odds of elevated energy product flow out of the region, causing those values to spike overnight. This has drawn managed money away from commodities to start the week, although futures were still able to trade on the plus side overnight. Corn and soybeans are the leader of the market which is not a surprise as those crops are still seeing significant weather influence, and crop conditions across the US are less than ideal. Crop scouts have started to walk back production numbers which is not surprising either. Fighting has also escalated in the Black Sea with Russia now almost totally shut off from the global market. Interior basis values remain firm and are supporting cash trade, although the rapidly approaching US harvest is starting to apply pressure.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-249https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-249Fri, 28 Aug 2026 18:45:35 GMTFutures started Friday’s trade mixed, but by the morning break, all contracts were in positive territory. Risk buyers surfaced in the market as weather to finish the US growing season is less than ideal, causing several analysts to adjust their yield estimates. Not only are some analysts lowering yields, but some are seeing fewer harvested acres as well. Building tensions in the Black Sea as Russia is now indicating it will target the United Kingdom if they continue to support Ukraine. If Russia follows through on these threats it would greatly change the outlook of the war and geopolitics on a whole. Commodities are overbought, but given the developing risks for the market, managed money buying continues to surface.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-ebahttps://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-ebaFri, 28 Aug 2026 10:53:24 GMTFutures were again on both sides of unchanged overnight as collective trade took place. Buyers returned to the market late in overnight trade though, giving futures support. Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all right at overbought levels, but this has not slowed buying interest. The possibility of smaller crops in the US and global trade disruptions continue to provide market support. We are also seeing our new crop demand pick up, with soybean sales now over twice last year’s pace. Corn sales are also building and while below last year, sales are the 4^th highest on record at this time. We are also seeing a build in wheat demand with the Black Sea and other ports closed due to geopolitical fighting. Russia is now threatening the United Kingdom with possible attacks as they are supporting Ukraine. If Russia follows through on these threats it will change the entire outlay of the current war. We are starting to see more risk buying as a result. Ongoing weather stress on US crops ahead of harvest is also drawing in buyers.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-8a4https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-8a4Thu, 27 Aug 2026 19:51:18 GMTCollective trade was seen in today’s session which was not a surprise given yesterday’s sizable gains, particularly in wheat. Buyers surfaced again today but in lesser numbers, limiting early gains. The main catalyst for yesterday’s rally was the apparent breakdown in Ukraine talks with Russia and fears this will escalate fighting in the region, further restricting commodity flow out of the region. Reports the lack of exports will impact next year’s acreage in Ukraine were also supportive fore the market. Weather remains supportive as well, primarily the ongoing European Union drought that has cut France’s corn crop to a 50 year low. Profit taking developed at mid-session as futures hit technical resistance.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-91chttps://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-91cThu, 27 Aug 2026 10:47:29 GMTFutures were mixed overnight with corn, soybeans, and wheat all seeing both sides of unchanged. Consolidation following yesterday’s sizable gains took place overnight, which was not a surprise. This was especially the case for wheat where limit gains were made yesterday. This means we will see expanded limits in today’s wheat trade. Corn and soybeans were also stronger yesterday and this led to several new contract highs. Those futures are correcting this morning as weak longs exit the market. Corn and soybeans are becoming overextended to the upside on the charts, and this is limiting fresh buying as well. First notice on the September contracts is next Monday and this is creating more positioning in the market. Next week also brings month and quarter end so to see profit taking should not come as a surprise.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-5dehttps://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-5deWed, 26 Aug 2026 19:30:04 GMTCorn, soybeans, and wheat all posted solid overnight gains with the wheat complex the leader. This drove several contracts to new highs overnight, with all corn contracts now above the $5.00 mark. While this is appealing to a producer, it is starting to strain processing margins. We continue to see crop ratings decline and now analysts are walking back their crop estimates, with corn and soybeans now both below projected demand. Soybean ending stocks may be cut in half given some outlook models, putting them at a minimal level. Markets are leaning towards overbought and this has limited additional buying interest. A few analysts have also tried to state deteriorating crop ratings are from maturity, and this is tempering fresh buying as well.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-e6bhttps://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-e6bWed, 26 Aug 2026 10:43:46 GMTCorn, soybeans, and wheat were firmer in overnight trade, with Kansas City contracts gaining back all of yesterday’s losses and then some. Late yesterday we saw a return of managed money buying, giving us support into the close. The attitude of the market is starting to shift, with more analysts predicting lower US yield potential. More traders are now wanting verification US yields will not decline given the recent drop in ratings and ongoing drought stress. The results of the Pro Farmer crop tour indicated lower yields, but before long we will see harvest activity, and that is what trade is waiting for. There is also more talk on test weight this year, specifically on corn. A few analysts have trimmed the US soybean yield by 2 bushels which would cut new crop ending stocks in half. Futures are starting to reach overbought levels though, and these are starting to create choppy trade. Cash markets remain strong but buyers are anxiously awaiting new crop inventory.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-977https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-977Tue, 25 Aug 2026 19:41:36 GMTFutures started today’s session mixed, but by the midway point of day trade, everything was working in positive territory. Losses were credited to the technical side as futures were starting to become overbought, particularly soybeans. Corn is also leaning towards overbought but deteriorating crop ratings provided support. Soybean and wheat saw their ratings decline as well, but with 17% of the US corn crop rated Poor/Very Poor it is starting to become more of a factor. Geopolitical differences also weighed on early trade today, mainly the difference between the US and Canada as retaliatory tariffs have now been placed on the US, The US is also seeing trade relations with China strained on recent disputes, but this has not slowed China appetite for US soybeans. We saw a flash sale on soybeans today of 132,000 metric tons to an unknown buyer. Risk buyers surfaced in the market as the session progressed, giving us solid gains into the close.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-f47https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-f47Tue, 25 Aug 2026 10:49:33 GMTOvernight trade was mixed for most of the session with grains higher and soybeans in the red. This eventually shifted with all contracts falling into negative territory as profit taking developed. Futures have reached overbought levels, and buying interest has slowed, particularly in the soy complex. Last week’s larger Pro Farmer soybean yield estimate was a factor in this, although the added production from this tour will be easily absorbed, if yields are actually that high. A national soybean yield of 53.3 bpa will take a near perfect finish to the growing season, and that does not appear likely. Soybeans have found more pressure from the White House’s approval of all smaller refiner waivers, greatly reducing renewable fuel demand. Export demand remains strong on soybeans, and this is offering support. Corn is seeing demand build as well. New crop sales are below last year but the 4^th highest since 2000, giving the complex support. Ethanol demand is showing more strength than soy crush as well. Harvest is rapidly approaching and is weighing on both contracts. Wheat continues to be driven by the developments in the Black Sea, and now we are seeing our tender list grow. In the livestock complex all attention is on the US decision to import tariff-free beef, a move that has hit massive opposition. The newly placed tariffs on Canada are also weighing on commodity trade along with several other markets.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-e03https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-e03Mon, 24 Aug 2026 19:59:25 GMTFutures’ trade was mixed to start the week with grains on the plus side and soybeans under pressure. Grains took their support from global logistics issues, mainly in the Black Sea, and lower US corn production forecasts. The Pro Farmer crop tour predicted a much smaller corn crop than the USDA, although its soybean crop was slightly higher than the USDA estimate. This weighed on soybeans today, as did losses in the energy complex. Soybeans saw additional pressure from uncertainty surrounding future biofuel demand following the number of waivers granted over the weekend to smaller refiners. News the United States would be placing a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian imports added to the negative trend of the market. A lack of fresh export sales and limited fresh news weighed on all markets.

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]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-8c8https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-8c8Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:41:43 GMTGrains are higher to start the week while the soy complex is under pressure. Corn is taking support from the drop in yield predicted by the Pro Farmer crop tour last week, with production forecast to fall 1 billion bu below projected demand. The tour’s soybean yield was higher at 53 bpa, nearly matching the USDA. This kept the soy complex under pressure to start the week, along with uncertain soy oil demand. The White House has approved all small refiner waivers, dropping soy oil demand outlooks. Board crush margins have receded sharply from this, with spot margins falling below new crop. A softer energy market to start the week was also negative for the soy complex, although meal has been able to separate itself from soy oil. The market is becoming overbought though, and this is limiting fresh buying interest. The US harvest will begin shortly and is starting to have more of an impact on futures and cash values.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-661https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-661Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:05:37 GMTFutures are showing a little pressure this morning as profit taking develops following a week of solid gains in the market. Corn and soybeans are starting to lean towards overbought, which is also limiting fresh buying to finish the week. Market fundamentals remain strong though and the market needs risk premium which is limiting losses. Much of this week’s trade has been driven by crop reports from the Pro Farmer tour. Corn yield estimates and pod counts are below last year in nearly every region that has been surveyed. Demand was a little softer this week following the rally in futures, although a drop in the US dollar offset much of this strength. Interior basis values remain mostly firm, even with a slight increase in old crop sales. Buyers are still being forced to pay a premium to encourage movement and this is supporting cash markets.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

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]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-8b1https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-8b1Thu, 20 Aug 2026 19:57:46 GMTCorn, soybeans, and wheat all posted gains today in a choppy, volatile session. The market is starting to run low on fresh fundamental news and this is placing more emphasis on technicals and outside markets for price discovery. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are mixed with some models showing moderating conditions while others show heat returning to the Midwest next week. The Pro Farmer crop tour continues to point out crop stress, and even if conditions do improve it may be too late for some regions. Not only is this generating fresh risk buying in commodities, but so are geopolitical developments. The Black Sea is now shut off from the global market and is forcing importers to other grain sources, including the US. Weekly grain sales have slowed but are starting to pick back up. More demand has been seen in the soy complex, including today’s flash sale of 150,000 metric tons to an unknown buyer.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-797https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-797Thu, 20 Aug 2026 11:03:06 GMTCorn and soybeans again posted solid gains in the overnight session and drug wheat along with them. Risk buying is a primary source of support for the market right now as more analysts are lowering their US crop projections. This follows the Pro Farmer crop tour that is finding lower yield estimates on corn and sharply lower pod counts on soybeans. The tour works its way towards Iowa and MN today which is where better crops are expected. Even so, many analysts have already cut yield below last week’s USDA outlook. At the same time demand is starting to build, primarily on new crop soybeans. Today’s sales numbers are expected to be high as flash sales were announced everyday last week. US weather outlooks are moderating which has tempered new buying interest, but weakness in outside markets continues to attract managed money in the commodities. Fresh news on a whole is rather light though and this is limiting market interest. Corn and soybeans are starting to lean towards overbought and this will start to limit buying interest as well.

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consensus Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consensus-afternoon-wraphttps://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consensus-afternoon-wrapWed, 19 Aug 2026 19:49:17 GMTSoybeans were the leader of the market overnight, taking support from building demand and concerns over US production outlooks. The Pro Farmer crop tour is finding pod counts well below last year and the five-year average with the complex already in a rationing position. Corn yields are also coming in below last year. More reports are coming in from the tour that this years crops are ok, but not great by any means. The garden spot of the Corn Belt has been Iowa, Minnesota, and into Wisconsin this year, but recent weather may have changed this. US crop potential is currently getting smaller, not larger, and this is giving futures support. We are also seeing elevated risk buying in the market due to weather and geopolitical developments. No flash sales were reported today but this failed to hinder the day’s activity.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-c58https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-am-market-brief-c58Wed, 19 Aug 2026 10:54:19 GMTCorn and soybean favored the upside overnight while wheat was mixed. Fresh news remains limited but the path of least resistance is upwards and this is providing market support. Managed money buyers continue to surface on setbacks, giving us additional support. The two main sources of support for the markets right now are demand and US crop reports. Demand is resilient to higher values although importers are showing more restraint as values rally. One exception is China who is steadily booking US soybeans. Corn demand has slowed but remains at elevated levels and is ahead of current USDA expectations. To see corn demand slow ahead of the US harvest is not surprising. Old crop soybean demand has faded as well, and with reserves at rationing levels, a slow-down is needed. As for US crop reports, tours that are taking place are not finding results that indicate production levels the USDA is predicting. Low pod counts and immature corn are two of the primary results so far. For the most part we are hearings “it’s a good crop, not a great crop.”

Visit our YouTube channel, Consus Ag Consulting, for timely market video content, including our early morning “3 Things to Watch” with a quick look at the morning’s news with our own spin! Click on the following link for this morning’s 3 things to watch update.

3 things to watch

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-702https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-702Tue, 18 Aug 2026 20:07:46 GMTToday’s trade started out on the positive side nut by mid-session futures were mixed with corn and soybeans holding to the upside while wheat made a correction downward. Soybeans were the leader of the market following much lower pod counts from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Corn yield is also expected to be down, but that was less of a surprise for the market. Corn and soybeans also saw their weekly ratings decline, but the spring wheat rating improved slightly, limiting market reaction. Harvest pressure is also more of a factor for the wheat complex. Global grain production estimate continue to decline and this provided market support, as did elevated geopolitical risk. We did see another flash sale today with China booking another 136,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans. The equities were under pressure today on thoughts we will see higher interest rates by the end of the year, and this directed managed money flow to outside markets, including the ag contracts.

]]><![CDATA[Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up]]>https://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-05fhttps://consusconsensus.substack.com/p/consus-ag-consulting-afternoon-wrap-05fMon, 17 Aug 2026 18:52:13 GMTCorn and soybeans started this week’s trade on the plus side while wheat was under light pressure. Soybeans were the leader of the market and took support from a friendly NOPA crush report for July. A need for risk premium added support to all futures as global growing conditions are less than ideal. The Pro Farmer crop tour is taking place this week and will give trade some indication of what crops look like from the field. Most models have US weather moderating this week across the Plains, but heat returning early next week. Flooding is a concern in the Eastern US, particularly in The greatest weather concern remains in the European Union with some analysts predict the smallest grain crops in 50 years. Escalated geopolitical fighting added premium as well, and allowed wheat to recover early losses as more attacks took place in the Black Sea. Fighting is on the rise between the US and Iran as well, with shipping through the Straits of Hormuz remaining stopped.

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