We’re following up on last week’s FFPC ADP Risers and Fallers after Week 2 of the NFL Preseason. Most of us love drafting because it gives us that rush of identifying players we think can provide value. We’ll touch on several players with stock rising or falling as we head into Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

FFPC ADP Risers in Week 3

The visual below shows the ADP risers by 12 or more spots in Week 3.

• De’Zhaun Stribling, WR, 49ers

  • Stribling went from sleeper to breakout to drafted in the middle rounds (Rounds 7-8) in FFPC leagues. In home leagues, Stribling might be going later, though the hype train is moving fast. The downside scenario involves the lack of opportunities if George Kittle, Mike Evans, and Christian McCaffrey are healthy. However, there’s contingent value for Stribling if any of them misses time.

• Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns

  • With Watson being named the starting quarterback, drafts have pushed up his ADP by one round. Not a priority, with better QB2 options.

• Devin Neal, RB, Saints

  • Neal was dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp. The Saints placed Neal on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Sunday. Neal’s ADP will fall, as some hoped he could garner more opportunities with Alvin Kamara out.

• Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, Ravens

  • I wrote about Lane in a recent RotoViz article, covering late-round wide receiver sleepers. Lane showed he can win against man coverage in college. The Ravens have been mixing in various WR2 options with Zay Flowers as the only pass-catcher (WR/TE) with a route percentage at 75% or more last season.

• Kaelon Black, RB, 49ers

  • Is it Jordan James or Black as the 49ers’ backup running back? Like FFPC drafters, I’ve been investing in Black in case Christian McCaffrey’s undisclosed injuries turn into more like two seasons ago.

• Kayshon Boutte, WR, Texans

  • With Jayden Higgins suffering a torn ACL, Boutte was acquired from the Patriots. Boutte was deployed as a downfield threat for the Texans, with a murky group behind Nico Collins. He had an average target depth of 17.5 with 1.56 yards per route run last season. Boutte ran a whopping 48.3% of his routes on vertically breaking ones. He might be a better pick in bestball, given the downfield volatility, especially if Drake Maye is a better deep-ball passer.

• Keenan Allen, WR, Colts

  • Allen signed with the Colts on a one-year deal worth $8.3 million. With Alec Pierce still recovering from an ankle injury and Josh Downs dealing with a calf issue, Allen might need to be relied upon early in the season. On Sunday, Allen was arrested and charged with a DUI, so that might change things.

• Kendre Miller, RB, Saints

  • Like Neal, some managers speculated on Miller in the later rounds. Miller has shown some explosiveness as a rusher, though health has been an issue.

• Michael Penix, QB, Falcons

  • Penix is still recovering from a torn ACL in Week 11 last season. Tua Tagovailoa might be the Falcons’ starting QB to begin the season, though that hasn’t been announced yet. Hopefully, Penix returns healthy because that bodes well for Drake London, but Tagovailoa can support multiple pass catchers at times.

• Mike Washington, RB, Raiders

  • Ashton Jeanty’s ankle injury caused fantasy managers to take Washington over two rounds higher in FFPC leagues. That puts Washington in the range of Keaton Mitchell, Chris Rodriguez, Aaron Jones, MarShawn Lloyd, Woody Marks, and Jonah Coleman. The prospect spreadsheet was absurdly high on Washington as RB4, given his 48.3% breakaway rush rate, 3.86 yards after contact per attempt, and an 80% RB Dominator in his final collegiate season.

  

  • The dude is an elite athlete with a 100th-percentile Speed Score, 100th-percentile Freak Score, and 95th-percentile Explosion Score, weighing 223 pounds. Washington’s top athletic comps include Isaac Guerendo, Dwayne Washington, Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, Ben Tate, and Darren McFadden.

FFPC ADP Fallers in Week 3

The visual below shows the ADP fallers by 12 or more spots in Week 3.

• Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

  • As of August 19, Kamara expects to miss at least a month with a sprained MCL. It was a late-round investment in Kamara, but the Saints RB depth takes a hit, especially with Neal on the injured reserve.

• Jalen Nailor, WR, Raiders

  • Hard to figure out why the fall for Nailor, though he isn’t someone to rely on in redraft leagues. He might be the WR2 for the Raiders behind Tre Tucker, which would be valuable in deeper formats, especially if they use 12-Personnel.

• Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints

  • I’ve been buying the dip on Tyson, especially in leagues with an injured reserve spot. In a Yahoo league, I took Tyson in Round 11 at pick 127 of a 12-team league with PPR scoring. Then I drafted Tyson in Round 12 of a 15-team league at pick 171 with PPR scoring. Besides Zach Charbonnet, Tyson is one of the top stash candidates, with him officially going on injured reserve on Sunday.

• Oronde Gadsden, TE, Chargers

  • With the hype train for Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Omarion Hampton, and Keaton Mitchell, Gadsden’s ADP fell. The Chargers added Charlie Kolar and David Njoku in the offseason, adding competition for the Year 2 tight end who ranked TE20 in PPR/G. Gadsden was efficient as a rookie, ranking 16th in fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G) and 1st in Receiving Air Yards Conversion Ratio (RACR).

• Theo Johnson, TE, Giants

  • Johnson has been dealing with a shoulder injury. Like Gadsden, Johnson has been facing added competition with Isaiah Likely joining the team. The Giants aired it out to Johnson, with an 8.3 air yards per target (No. 7) with respectable usage as TE20 in expected fantasy points per game.

• Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Falcons

  • With Penix rising in ADP, fantasy managers have been fading Tagovailoa. It’s still murky, though the Falcons should announce their starting QB soon.

• Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Giants

  • Tracy missed a pass block and fumbled in the preseason, causing fantasy managers to tilt about Tracy’s role as the Giants’ RB2. However, Tracy left the preseason game against the Jets with a neck injury (stinger). He remains on the 53-man roster, though some worried he would be cut or headed to injured reserve.

Notable Injuries: Ashton Jeanty and George Kittle

Ashton Jeanty was poised for a better Year 2 season with Klint Kubiak as the head coach and an upgrade at quarterback. Unfortunately, Jeanty left practice with a reported ankle injury on Sunday. Hopefully, it isn’t a high ankle sprain or something more serious, but keep tabs on the injury updates.

The Raiders drafted Mike Washington in the fourth round with Dylan Laube, UDFA Roman Hemby, and Dare Ogunbowale on their running back depth chart. Washington was RB4 on the prospect spreadsheet, with an 80% RB Dominator, 2.53 yards before contact per attempt, and 3.86 yards after contact per attempt.

He ran a 4.33 40-yard dash (99th percentile), translating to a 100th percentile Speed Score with a 100th percentile Freak Score and 95th percentile Explosion Score. Athleticism matters at running back, with Washington’s top athletic comparisons being Isaac Guerendo, Dwayne Washington, Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, and Ben Tate.

Washington’s FFPC ADP was at 151.7, as RB57. Expect him to move up a couple of rounds, closer to Zach Charbonnet, Jonah Coleman, Tyler Allgeier, Keaton Mitchell, and Chris Rodriguez Jr.

George Kittle was activated off the PUP list on Sunday. The reports indicate Kittle is ahead of schedule after recovering from a torn Achilles from January 2026. With the 49ers comign off the PUP list before the season started, that indicates they don’t expect him to miss the first four games. The 49ers can still rule Kittle out in the first few contests if they don’t feel that he is ready to play, which should provide more confidence for fantasy managers.

I’m still skeptical on Achilles tears, but Kittle is likely an outlier on a high-end offense.

FFPC ADP Risers in Week 2

The visual below shows the players with an ADP that rose by 12 or spots in Week 2.

• Braelon Allen, RB, Jets

  • Breece Hall is dealing with a groin injury that causes him to miss a few weeks, so Allen’s stock rises. Isaiah Davis could factor into the mix without Hall. However, Allen has been efficient with a 6.9 yards per attempt and 5.86 YAC/Att.

• Caleb Douglas, WR, Dolphins

  • Douglas has little competition among the Dolphins’ pass catchers with Malik Washington as the primary option with Jaylen Waddle gone. I have a deeper look into Douglas in an upcoming article at RotoViz. Douglas profiles as an outside receiver with size and length that’s lacking from other Dolphins’ pass catchers.

• Cyrus Allen, WR, Chiefs

  • Allen’s ADP is on a rocket ship that’s skyrocketing for fantasy managers. It’s rare for Day 3 wide receivers to hit and produce in Year 1, but Allen might be earning receiving opportunities early.

• Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans

  • Jayden Higgins tore his ACL last week, so it looks like fantasy managers have been looking away from the other depth pieces at WR. Instead, they’re boosting Schultz’s ADP with the Higgins injury.

• De’Zhaun Stribling, WR, 49ers

  • It’s hard to talk about Stribling without thinking about the K-Pop Demon Hunters lyrics, where we’re going up, up, up, it’s our moment. Stribling has been dealing with a shoulder injury. However, it’s hard to ignore Stribling’s 4.40 yards per route run (No. 11) and 109 receiving yards (No. 8) among qualified receivers in the NFL preseason.

• Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, Ravens

  • Like Douglas, Lane has been garnering positive camp buzz, so fantasy managers have been taking notice. I have deeper look into Lane in an upcoming RotoViz article.

• Kaelon Black, RB, 49ers

  • Christian McCaffrey has been missing time with an undisclosed injury. He openly talked about how he planned to slowly ramp up, so maybe it’s nothing, though it feels like 2024 when things seemed murky. With Jordan James dealing with a ribs injury earlier in training camp, rookie RB Kaelon Black has seen his stock rise.

• KC Concepcion, WR, Browns

  • Other than Concepcion truthers talking about him, we don’t see other reasons for his ADP to rise. The Browns drafted him in the first round, giving him a higher chance to hit and produce in Year 1.

• Keenan Allen, WR, Colts

  • With Allen signing with the Colts in mid-August, his ADP increased. This could be a response to fantasy managers and the Colts being worried about Alec Pierce’s injury or some depth with Michael Pittman Jr. gone.

• Terrance Ferguson, TE, Rams

  • With the Rams logging the highest percentage (30.5%) of 13-Personnel, double of the second team (Steelers, 14.2%), there have been positive discussions about Ferguson being the Rams’ third pass catcher in their offense. Puka Nacus is dealing with a groin injury and Davante Adams might see touchdown regression in 2026. Unless Ferguson is being drafted as a TE2 on rosters, it’s hard to click on him as a TE1.

• Tyler Allgeier, RB, Cardinals

  • Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a high-ankle sprain, which raises the alarm bells. Allgeier might be the only healthy running back heading into the 2026 season with Trey Benson and James Conner having injury concerns.

FFPC ADP Fallers in Week 2

The visual below shows the players with an ADP that fell by 12 or spots in Week 2.

• Alec Pierce, WR, Colts

  • Pierce’s ankle injury has been lingering into training camp, leading to fantasy managers having skepticism at the cost.

• Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

  • Kamara has an MCL sprain, with reports indicating he will miss one month or more. Though Travis Etienne Jr. has been a fade for me, Kamara’s injury should bode well for Etienne’s value and opportunity.

• Bryce Young, QB, Panthers

  • Young hasn’t had an injury issues, so it might be a matter of fantasy managers valuing other players more than him.

• Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders

  • Kubiak hasn’t named a starting quarterback. However, Mendoza has been struggling in the preseason, including a pick-six. Fantasy managers might want to be patient with Mendoza as a streaming QB throughout the season.

• Jacoby Brissett, QB, Cardinals

  • Maybe Brissett sitting out in the first week of the preseason has been driving his price drop.

• Jayden Higgins, WR, Texans

  • Higgins has a torn ACL, causing him to miss the 2026 season. Many had Higgins as a sleeper heading into 2026, though the Texans were cycling through pass catchers in their offense. The Texans were 1 of 7 teams with one pass catcher (WR/TE) with a 75% route rate or higher.

• Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints

  • The often-injured rookie WR prospect expects to miss two months with a hamstring injury. Take the discounted price on Tyson, especially in deeper leagues with multiple WR or flex spots as an injury stash.

• Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Jets

  • Cooper might be fighting for slot reps, who ran a route in the slot 83.3% of the time last season. However, Indiana deployed Cooper on the outside in 2024 (90.3%) and 2023 (83.1%). That suggests Cooper’s profile can be flexible, though the Year 1 opportunities might be lacking.

• Oronde Gadsden, TE, Chargers

  • Other than the stock rising for Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, and Keaton Mitchell, the draft community might have faded Gadsden with David Njoku and Charlie Kolar at TE. Gadsden might better as high-upside TE2 than a reliable part of our lineups.

• Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Jaguars

  • Hunter is a high-upside dart throw later in drafts. However, the early-season expectation seems to have Hunter as a backup WR, so we’ll need to be patient in deeper leagues.

• Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Giants

  • Tracy has been struggling in pass protection in the NFL preseason, coinciding with Najee Harris signing with the Giants. Cam Skattebo looks healthy to being the season, though Tracy and Harris will likely eat into the backfield workload.

Among the 69 players with an ADP jump by 5 points over the past week, there were zero quarterbacks (min. 50 draft selections). We won’t go through all 69 players, but you can see them in several screenshots below.

We’ll specifically highlight the running back risers over the past week because the position can swing quickly. Whether it’s an injury or positive news among the backups, the value for these running backs can rise or fall significantly. That said, we’ll filter by running backs with a 10-point jump in their ADP, showing they increased by nearly one round on average.

Running Back Risers By 10 or Picks

• Blake Corum, RB, Rams

  • Corum went up 14.5 picks over the past week. There have been workout videos of Corum with plenty of positive buzz from the beat writers about Corum breaking out in Year 3.

• Brian Robinson, RB, Falcons

  • Robinson went up 10.3 spots, showing some drafters might be taking shots at high-end backups.

• Chris Rodriguez, RB, Jaguars

  • After dealing with a foot injury, there have been more positive reports about Rodriguez working in drills during training camp.

• Demond Claiborne, RB, Vikings

  • Claiborne has seen a massive jump of over 26 spots across the past week. I’ve written up Claiborne as one of the rookies to target in bestball leagues. Other podcasts and analysts have mentioned Claiborne, with Aaron Jones being a fade for many.

• Emmett Johnson, RB, Chiefs

  • Johnson’s ADP rose by nearly 15 picks (14.8). Andy Reid praised Johnson after their first preseason game. He might be the RB3 on the depth chart, but fantasy managers probably like the upside of Johnson being a rookie.

• George Holani, RB, Seahawks

  • Holani is still the RB3 drafted on the Seahawks, with some taking a shot on his potential early-season contributions as a deep-league flier.

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Commanders

  • Croskey-Merritt’s ADP rose by 14.3 points over the past week. He posted juicy underlying rushing metrics last season, with a 15% missed tackle rate, 2.34 yards after contact, and 2.26 yards before. I’m still in on JCM as the efficient rusher paired with Jayden Daniels, though I’m worried about the backfield split with Daniels taking on 20% of the team’s rush share.

• Jaydon Blue, RB, Cowboys

  • There have been some positive reports about Blue’s maturity heading into Year 2 and how they’ve been impressed with his training camp compared to his rookie season. Blue’s ADP jumped by 15+ spots over the past week.

• Jonah Coleman, RB, Broncos

  • Coleman’s ADP skyrocketed by 31.5 spots, making him more of a 10th- or 11th-round pick. I’ve liked Coleman throughout the draft process as my RB3. With JK Dobbins sidelined with an undisclosed injury, fantasy managers have been aggressive in drafting Coleman. I’ve written about Coleman a few times as a sleeper. You can find my write-up on Coleman before the NFL Draft here.

• Jordan Mason, RB, Vikings

  • Mason has been a top target for many drafters with the potential for him to take on a heavier workload if Aaron Jones isn’t as productive or misses time.

• Kaelon Black, RB, 49ers

  • I touched on Black as a rookie target in early July. Christian McCaffrey is dealing with tightness, which seems like a vague issue. Jordan James has a fractured rib, which might linger into the start of the season. Keep taking shots at Black in the later rounds.

• Kaytron Allen, RB, Commanders

  • Allen had a wildly high workload in the first preseason game. He has the 2nd-most carries (23) in the preseason, with Corey Kiner (24) ahead of him, though the Cardinals played two games. I’ve been intrigued by Allen as the RB3 drafted on the Commanders, because we’ve seen RB3s on their team hit last season.

  • Robert Henry Jr. wasn’t an ADP riser because he was only taken in two drafts. However, Henry was efficient in his preseason usage (12 rushes, 75 rushing yards, and 2.42 YAC/Att) for the Commanders. Before I adjusted for Henry’s collegiate competition, he was RB6 on the prospect spreadsheet, though the adjustment made him RB15.

• Keaton Mitchell, RB, Chargers

  • Mitchell’s ADP increased by nearly 11 spots (10.8), as the positive drumbeat continues during the offseason and training camp, with comps as a discounted version of De’Von Achane. Jokes aside, there’s a chance that Mitchell eats into more of Omarion Hampton’s role than expected.

• Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers

  • I’m not sure why Vidal’s ADP has been slightly increasing, other than him reportedly being listed as a co-RB2 on the Chargers depth chart. Don’t overthink these depth charts.

• MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers

  • Josh Jacobs has been listed as a bust or red flag for many, especially with the groin issue and potential legal charges. Lloyd has remained healthy (fingers crossed) throughout training camp. However, I didn’t expect Lloyd’s ADP to skyrocket by over 32 picks. Hopefully, Lloyd’s ADP doesn’t continue to skyrocket, or it might be too risky, though I liked him as a prospect.

• Mike Washington, RB, Raiders

  • Washington’s ADP jumped by 31.5 picks. When you rush six times for 63 yards in a preseason game, leading to the most YAC/Att (8.67) among rushers with five attempts, Washington’s ADP will rise, as a high-upside backup to Ashton Jeanty.

• Nicholas Singleton, RB, Titans

  • Like I mentioned with Kaytron Allen, taking a shot on Singleton can be a high-upside dart throw as the RB3 drafted on the Titans. There’s a path for fantasy relevance with Singleton if Tony Pollard struggles and Tyjae Spears misses time. Singleton moved inside the top 200 picks, rising by over 22 spots.

• Ray Davis, RB, Bills

  • Like targeting the top backup for a running back drafted in the first two rounds, Davis is a high-upside selection that fantasy managers have been pushing up the board by nearly 26 picks (25.9).

• Tank Bigsby, RB, Eagles

  • Bigsby is in a similar situation to Davis, where fantasy managers have been pushing him up the board by two rounds (24.1 spots). They’re betting on Bigsby being one of the top backup running backs to draft behind Saquon Barkley.

• Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks

  • Charbonnet’s ADP increased by one round. We probably have more confidence in drafting Charbonnet because of his expected high-value touch role once healthy.

Hoping to do something like this for other positions, but it’s been a busy past few weeks as the summer schedule winds down and the schoolwork picks back up.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle set a career high in whiffs (24) against the Athletics. Tolle had a 28.6% swinging-strike rate and a 27% ball rate across an efficient 84 pitches on Friday.

🆙Tolle’s velocity was up across 4 of his primary pitches by over 1 mph, including his four-seamer (+1.6 mph), cutter (+1.5 mph), curveball (+1 mph), and sinker (+1.4 mph).

🔥Tolle’s four-seamer (30.3% SwK), cutter (35.3% SwK), and curveball (33.3% SwK) were leading his arsenal against the Athletics, who stacked RHH (69%) against him. For context, Tolle’s four-seam (14%), cutter (17.7%), and curveball (22%) led his arsenal with a swinging-strike rate at 10% or higher this season.

⏩He was pounding his four-seamers in the zone 61% of the time. Meanwhile, opposing hitters were chasing the heater 46% of the time. For context, Tolle threw his four-seamer in the zone 54.1% of the time with a significantly lower chase rate (33.8%).

It’s Tolle’s 5th-straight game with 15 or more whiffs, as he continues to evolve into one of the best pitchers for the Red Sox.

Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals

Washington Nationals’ starting pitcher Cade Cavalli had his 4th game with 15 or more whiffs this season. Cavalli had a 19% swinging-strike rate and a 35% ball rate on Friday against the Reds.

🧹Cavalli had his breaking pitches cooking, including his knuckle curve (20% swinging-strike rate) and sweeper (31.6% swinging-strike rate), accounting for 12 of his 19 whiffs on Friday.

🪝Both his knuckle curve and sweeper were thrown in the zone 32-33% of the time on Friday. That’s slightly lower than the zone rate on the knuckle curve (43.4%) and sweeper (38.1%) this season.

🏃‍♂️That led to opposing hitters chasing the knuckle curve 45% of the time, with the sweeper’s 62% chase rate. For context, Cavalli’s knuckle curve had a 34.1% chase rate, with the sweeper at 38.4%.

Cavalli was burying the knuckle curves and sweepers low and below the zone, leading to opposing hitters often chasing both breakers.

Tyler Mahle, SP, Braves

Newly acquired Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Tyler Mahle threw 6 scoreless innings, with 3 hits, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts against the Yankees in New York. Mahle had a 13% swinging-strike rate and a 39% ball rate, suggesting he was fortunate on Friday.

✍️The Yankees stacked LHH (69%) against Mahle, as he consolidated his arsenal between four-seamers (52%) and splitters (38%), accounting for 90% of his arsenal on Friday.

⏹️Mahle was locating his four-seamer in the upper part of the zone, throwing the heater in the zone 47% of the time with a 37% called-strike rate.

🪓Meanwhile, Mahle’s splitters were thrown low and below the zone, leading to a 58% zone rate, 31% chase rate, and 71% strike rate. For context, Mahle threw his splitter in the zone 39.9%. Mahle’s splitter had a 65% strike rate while opposing hitters chased 42% of the time.

Mahle’s expected ERA metrics have been significantly better than his actual outcomes. Keep tabs on Mahle as a potential deep-league streaming pitcher.

Shane Baz, SP, Orioles

Baltimore Orioles’ starting pitcher Shane Baz went 8 innings on Friday, tossing a quality start against the Rangers. Baz posted his 2nd game with 15 or more whiffs on Friday.

⏹️Baz pounded the zone via his four-seam (68%) and cutter (72%) on Friday. That’s significantly higher than Baz’s zone rate on his four-seam (50.7%) and cutter (56.5%).

✍️Baz’s four-seamer elicited a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and his cutter’s 27.8% swinging-strike rate on Friday. For context, Baz’s four-seam had a 6.5% SwK with the cutter at 11% before Friday.

🎯Throughout Baz’s career, he tends to command the four-seamer (100 Location+) and cutter (105 Location+) decently, so it makes sense for him to pound the zone with both.

We’ll look at 27 players with situation upgrades or downgrades on their new teams, with several on the watch list.

Trade Deadline Upgrades

• Luis García Jr., 1B, Yankees

  • Garcia was having a breakout season with the Nationals, hitting a career-best 23 home runs with a .283 batting average. He has been swinging the bat harder, with a 74 mph bat speed while setting a career high in barrel rate per plate appearance (9.9%). Garcia batted third in his first game with the Yankees, potentially making him a strong-side platoon option at first base.

• Luis Arraez, 1B/2B, Phillies

  • Roster Resource has Arraez projected at 2B, with Bryce Harper moving to RF, Alec Bohm covering 1B, and Bryson Stott shifting to 3B. This is a lineup upgrade for Arraez, who will hit in the top third, potentially boosting his runs plus RBI.

• Kevin Gausman, SP, Cubs

  • Gausman has been struggling on the surface. However, Gausman has been showing better overall command (108 Location+). Specifically, Gausman has been locating his four-seamer (112) and splitter (108) better this season. I have a feeling the Cubs will work some magic and help Gausman pitch better. The Cubs have been an organization to trust from a pitch development standpoint.

• José Soriano, SP, Blue Jays

  • This should be interesting for Soriano, especially since the Blue Jays seem to have a better defense than the Angels. However, Soriano has been throwing more four-seamers (+17 points to RHH, +13.5 points to LHH). That has coincided with his groundball rate falling by 13+ points overall. Seems like a good trade-off if he can limit hits and BABIP.

  • Other notable points for Soriano:

    • Good command (105 Location+), especially via the sinker (110) and knuckle curve (120)

    • Can miss bats (13% swinging-strike rate)

    • Control issues (38% ball rate) can be problematic if he can't limit hits and balls in play

• Robbie Ray, SP, Padres

  • Ray goes from one of the worst NL teams to one that is on the fringe of a playoff spot. He has been outperforming his ERA estimators, with all of them over 1.00 above his actual results. This might be an upgrade from a team context, but Ray’s single-digit K-BB% (9.8%), 10.6% swinging-strike rate, and 95 Stuff+ have been the lowest numbers in his career.

• Luke Weaver, RP, Pirates

  • Gregory Soto is leading the Pirates in saves (14), with several having two or fewer this season. Weaver has 13 saves over the past three seasons, though some expect him to garner save chances with the Pirates.

• Dustin May, SP, Brewers

  • May has been adjusting his arm angle this season. He rocks a 15.5% K-BB%, with above-average stuff (102 Stuff+) and command (102 Location+) this season. May has been making tweaks to his sinker, cutter, and changeup, which I’ve written about for an upcoming RotoGraphs article. Trust the Brewers to unlock another level for May.

• Daulton Varsho, OF, Astros

  • Varsho batted fourth for the Astros after being traded to Houston. After peak bat speed in 2025 (75.6 mph), Varsho’s bat speed dipped to 72.9 mph this season. After a 50% pull rate or higher in three of the past four seasons, he lowered it to 41.4%. That aligns with Varsho’s pulled air rate dipping to 20.5%, down from his career average (25.1%). This is an upgrade for Varsho based on playing time and hitting in the 2nd-best park for LHH Home Run Park Factors.

• Heliot Ramos, OF, Yankees

  • Besides José Caballero, Ramos will be one of the Yankees’ regular right-handed hitters with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge injured. After two consecutive seasons with 20+ home runs for Ramos, he shifts from the 26th-best park for home runs to the 2nd-best for right-handed hitters. Stock up for Ramos.

• Foster Griffin, SP, Guardians

  • Griffin has been one of the more surprising starting pitchers this season, after pitching in the NPB from 2023 to 2025. He has been showing better command via his cutter (114), splitter (102), and slider (107), supporting his above-average overall Location+ (102). Though Griffin has been fortunate, we’ve seen the Guardians help pitchers evolve throughout their careers. While the Nationals’ coaching staff might be on the rise, Griffin goes to an organization to trust from a pitching development standpoint. I wrote about Griffin in mid-June.

• Casey Mize, SP, Padres

  • I went back and forth on whether to put Mize in the winners or losers section. Mize has been a favorite sleeper of mine in the past. He has been pitching well this season, with a career-best 19.4% K-BB%. Mize has a 108 Location+, with all five pitches rocking a Location+ at 101 or higher. He should be playing on a team that can generate more wins than the Tigers.

• Freddy Peralta, SP, Brewers

  • Peralta has a career-low in K-BB% and four-seamer Stuff+. The Rays are about to make some tweaks to Peralta’s arsenal. He started mixing in more sweepers against RHH (11.5%) with success (.200 wOBA, .165 xwOBA). Expect the Rays to make changes to Peralta’s arsenal, stuff, or command.

• Tarik Skubal, SP, Dodgers

  • There’s an obvious team-context bump for Skubal with potential incentive and motivation to win a World Series. Besides the Skubal addition, the Dodgers acquired Kris Bubic and optioned Emmet Sheehan to the minors. The Dodgers already have Bubic, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Gavin Stone on the injured list, so they made moves to acquire the best starting pitcher on the market and depth.

Trade Deadline Downgrades

• Luis Castillo, SP, White Sox

  • The Mariners were rumored to be shopping Castillo, Emerson Hancock, and George Kirby. After using a six-man rotation, the Mariners traded Castillo to the White Sox, leading to a typical five-man starting rotation. This is a downgrade for Castillo theoretically because the Mariners have been an organization to trust for pitching development. However, the White Sox have a better record at the trade deadline (59-52) than the Mariners (55-58).

  • Castillo has the worst ERA (5.06) of his career, with a career-low 12.2% K-BB% this season. Interestingly, Castillo’s command (109 Location+) has been better than his career norm (104 Location+). However, Castillo has been unlucky with a career-worst 65% strand rate.

• Brenton Doyle, OF, White Sox

  • Doyle flashed power and speed throughout his career with the Rockies, averaging 16 home runs and 23 stolen bases in his three previous seasons before 2026. The first downgrade is going from Colorado to Chicago from a BABIP and batting average standpoint. Tristan Peters has been the primary CF for the White Sox, though he projects as a strong-side platoon option. That said, Doyle will need to fight for playing time in the White Sox outfield this season.

Trade Deadline Watch List

• Jo Adell, OF, Guardians

  • Adell goes from the 9th-best Home Run Park Factor for RHH to the 25th-best in the three-year rolling averages. He still boasts near-elite bat speed (77.3 mph), yet his 5.9% Barrel/PA fell from 11.3% in 2025. However, Adell’s current barrel rate is 1+ point below his career average (7.4%). Playing time shouldn’t be an issue, so it’s a mixed bag via the park factor change.

• Taylor Ward, OF, Mariners

  • Ward has been having a strange season. His barrels disappeared (3.4%), lowest of his career (not including 2020). Ward’s pulled air rate is at a career low (13.5%), nearly 3 points below his career average. He rocks a career-high walk rate (17.2%) and OBP (.383), with the lowest chase rate (14.3%) and swing rate (34.3%) of his career.

  • It looks like a neutral change from a power standpoint for Ward, since the Orioles rank 16th and the Mariners are at 19th in home run park factor for RHH. Ward’s OBP and walks matter from a real-life and OBP league perspective, so he lands on the watch list.

• Adley Rutschman, C, Red Sox

  • There were rumors of the Red Sox looking to acquire Rutschman. It finally happened, as the Red Sox gave up C Carlos Narvaez, RHP Anthony Eyanson, RHP Kyson Witherspoon, and OF Enddy Azocar. In Rutschman’s peak seasons, he was an above-average catcher offensively and defensively. He lands on the watch list because he is on the injured list with a wrist injury that could sideline him for another week. Rutschman should have everyday playing time with the Red Sox instead of sharing playing time with Samuel Basallo.

• Braxton Garrett, SP, Cubs

  • Garrett threw 4.1 innings across two games started in May, but hasn’t pitched in the majors since. He has some intriguing skills, with a career 16.6% K-BB%, 10.8% swinging-strike rate, and a 98 Pitching+. Though Garrett won’t be an immediate factor in the Cubs’ starting rotation, we’re putting him on the watch list with a new team.

• Moisés Ballesteros, C/DH, Angels

  • The Angels acquired Ballesteros after trading away Ryan Zeferjahn. One day after acquiring Ballesteros, the Angels recalled him from the minors. That indicates the Angels likely want him in their starting lineup. With the Angels trading away starting catcher Logan O’Hoppe to the Rangers, it opens up playing time behind the dish. Ballesteros has flashed intriguing tools, including his 73.3 mph bat speed, 76.3% career contact rate, and a 6.3% Barrel/PA. He is a bat-first hitter who profiles more as a DH than catcher.

• Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Blue Jays

  • Arrighetti is on the injured list with a foot injury. He has been struggling this season, though that’s not surprising as a starting pitcher who leans more on his stuff (100 Stuff+) than his command (95 Location+) throughout his career.

• Tyler Wells, P, Rays

  • Wells goes from mixing into the Orioles’ save mix to a lower-leverage role with the Rays. Though it probably won’t be immediate, Wells has been a starting pitcher in 50 games, so there’s a chance the Rays develop him into a starter.

• Marcelo Mayer, 2B/SS, Giants

  • Talk about a buy-low trade for the Giants. Mayer was the 3rd-best prospect in the Red Sox system with a 55 prospect grade via FanGraphs. Through Mayer’s 364 plate appearances, he has underwhelmed with 7 home runs, 3 steals, a .223 batting average, and a 69 wRC+. Mayer flashed high-end bat speed (74.4 mph), with a concerning 74% contact rate and a 4.9% Barrel/PA in his brief MLB career. This could be the ultimate buy-low on Mayer, or he turns in a bust.

• Jeff Hoffman, RP, Twins

  • Hoffman had 5 saves with the Blue Jays this season, given Louis Varland was leading the team (24). He lands in the mixed bag and watch list section because the Twins have been frustrating for saves. The Twins have 6 relievers with 2 or more saves this season, including Yoendrys Gómez (13), Andrew Morris (2), Taylor Rogers (2), Anthony Banda (2), Justin Topa (2), and Travis Adams (2). Hoffman expects to share save opportunities with Gómez.

• Lars Nootbaar, OF, Diamondbacks

  • I have Nootbaar in the watch list section because he continues to tease us with his skills. Nootbaar has strong plate discipline with an 82.1% contact rate, 18% chase rate, and a 6.4% swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, Nootbaar boasts an above-average Barrel/PA (6%) while squaring up the ball often (32.4%). Nootbaar typically hits the ball on the sweet spot of the bat, which leads to a higher squared-up rate. There’s a chance the Diamondbacks platoon Nootbaar, which impacts his counting stats and volume.

• Connor Norby, 1B/3B, Rockies

  • The Rockies acquired Norby, who is expected to be in the minors. Kyle Karros, TJ Rumfield, and Troy Johnston have been holding down the 1B, 3B, and DH spots for the Rockies. Norby struggles to make contact (70.5%), whiffs often (15.8%), and barrels the ball (6.3%) throughout his career. If Norby is called up, keep tabs on his playing time with the Rockies.

This time, we’re looking at the personnel usage in the red zone and play action trends on the team level as a way to understand what teams have been doing last season that could carry into 2026. Most of the data comes from the invaluable Fantasy Points Data Suite.

With the trend of using more heavy personnel groupings, including 12- and 13-Personnel, let’s look at the players that benefited from that usage. Last season, 23 pass catchers ran 25 or more routes in 13-Personnel, with 16 of them having a target per route rate in 11- and 12-Personnel. Five of those 23 pass catchers were wide receivers, including Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Michael Wilson, Puka Nacua, and Tre Tucker.

For context, 13 pass catchers ran 25 or more routes in 13-Personnel in 2024. Only 2 of them were receivers with a target per route rate in 11- and 12-Personnel (aka a single target) in 2024:
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- George Pickens

That’s a significant increase in the number of pass catchers running routes in 11-, 12-, and 13-Personnel last season, aligning with those trends of heavy personnel usage. After examining the pass catchers, let’s look at what teams ran more in different personnel groupings. Nine teams had the largest drop in their team’s rush percentage in 11-Personnel. That list includes the Falcons, Bears, Browns, Packers, Rams, Patriots, Giants, Steelers, and Seahawks. However, the Falcons, Bears, Browns, Rams, Steelers, and Seahawks ran more out of 13-Personnel. That said, the Packers and Giants ran more out of 12.

The visual below shows teams with a 10-percentage-point dip or more in their rush percentage when using 11-Personnel, including their rush rate in 12- and 13-Personnel.

Meanwhile, several of these teams increased their rush percentage in 12- and 13-Personnel. Last season, 18 teams had 25 or more rush attempts in 11-, 12-, and 13-Personnel. Nine teams increased their rushing success rate in two of the personnel columns in 2025. That includes the Bills, Bears, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Giants, Eagles, and Seahawks, as seen below.

11-, 12-, and 13-Personnel Usage in the Red Zone

Brett Whitefield talked about teams possibly using heavier personnel groupings in the red zone. That led me to examine the research. In the red zone, the league-average rate of 13 Personnel is 6.7%.

Last season, 12 teams ran 13 Personnel more than the league average in the red zone, as seen below.

1) Rams (36.8%)
2) Steelers (17.1%)
3) Eagles (13.3%)
4) Colts (11.2%)
5) Panthers (10.9%)
6) Bears (9.6%)
7) Seahawks (9.4%)
8) Giants (8.2%)
9) Ravens (7.4%)
10) Lions (7.3%)
11) Cardinals (7.3%)
12) Saints (7.1%)

The league average of 13 Personnel outside the red zone is 5.1%. 12 teams used 13 Personnel outside the red zone above the league norm; many were on the list above.

1) Rams 29%
2) Steelers 13.6%
3) Cardinals 11.1%
4) Colts 9.5%
5) Saints 8.4%
6) Bears 8.3%
7) Panthers 7.1%
8) Falcons 7%
9) Eagles 7%
10) Chiefs 6.4%
11) Raiders 6%
12) Commanders 5.4%

When we filter by 12 Personnel, the league average is 21.3% in the red zone. 15 teams used 12 Personnel, more than the league average; 16 if we included the Buccaneers (21.2%), who were nearly identical to the league norm.

The Browns had used 12 Personnel two times the league average, with the Raiders as the other team, over 40% usage in the red zone.

1) Browns (46.4%)
2) Raiders (40.4%)
3) Packers (35.5%)
4) Falcons (34.8%)
5) Chiefs (33.9%)
6) Bears (30.3%)
7) Ravens (29.7%)
8) Giants (29.1%)
9) Eagles (28.5%)
10) Bengals (26.9%)
11) Colts (25%)
12) Lions (24.5%)
13) Steelers (24.4%)
14) Seahawks (23.5%)
15) Jets (23%)

Outside the red zone, the league-average rate of 12 Personnel was 22.5%. 15 teams used 12 Personnel above the league norm. Interesting to see the similar usage of 12P in and outside of the red zone.

The Lions were at 22% in 12 Personnel usage outside the red zone, similar to the league average.

1) Browns 40.4%
2) Falcons 38.7%
3) Ravens 37.3%
4) Packers 33.4%
5) Giants 33.2%
6) Raiders 33.1%
7) Bears 33.1%
8) Seahawks 31.1%
9) Cardinals 30.6%
10) Bengals 29.4%
11) Chiefs 26.7%
12) Eagles 25.7%
13) Colts 25.7%
14) Steelers 24.8%
15) Commanders 23.8%

For fun, the league average rate of 11 Personnel was 51.7% last season in the red zone. Most of the league (20 teams) used 11 Personnel in the red zone above the league norm.

7 teams used 11 Personnel over 60% of the time in the red zone:

1) Panthers 70.1%
2) Bengals 65.1%
3) Titans 64.4%
4) Vikings 64.4%
5) Saints 63%
6) Buccaneers 61%
7) Colts 60.1%

If these teams continue to use 11-Personnel in the red zone, it could bode well for those slot options like Josh Downs, Jalen Coker, Wan’Dale Robinson, Chris Olave, Chris Godwin, and Jauan Jennings.

The 5 teams with the lowest percentage of 11 Personnel in the red zone:

32) Browns 23.2%
31) Ravens 24%
30) Steelers 26.8%
29) Dolphins 35.7%
28) Seahawks 37.7%

Several of these teams with a low percentage of 11-Personnel in the red zone often used heavy personnel, so this makes sense.

Play Action Trends

The league-average EPA per pass attempt for play action passes is 0.04 EPA per pass attempt. There were 15 teams with an EPA per pass attempt above the league norm. That list will be shown below, sorted by EPA per pass attempt on play action.

1. Seahawks (0.36)

2. Ravens (0.31)

3. Lions (0.29)

4. Packers (0.28)

5. Rams (0.28)

6. Cowboys (0.26)

7. Patriots (0.25)

8. Bills (0.25)

9. Texans (0.19)

10. Buccaneers (0.18)

11. Commanders (0.14)

12. Jaguars (0.12)

13. Falcons (0.12)

14. Chiefs (0.06)

15. Colts (0.05)

Another way to look at efficient passing teams involves examining which ones were efficient in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A). Last season, 7 NFL teams had above-average passing efficiency (adjusted net yards per pass attempt) in play action passes in 11- and 12-Personnel. These are offenses we want parts of in their passing games.

• Green Bay Packers

• Detroit Lions

• Seattle Seahawks

• Baltimore Ravens

• New England Patriots

• Dallas Cowboys

• Los Angeles Rams

• Only the Ravens and Patriots used play action at a below-average rate last season among these 7 teams. It would benefit Lamar Jackson and the passing game to increase their play action usage. Declan Doyle was the offensive coordinator with the Bears under Ben Johnson, so there’s a good chance the Ravens use more play action this season.

• Nine NFL teams increased their play action pass attempt percentage by 3 points or more in 2025. A wild stat: the Falcons went from 91% of their play action pass attempts out of 11-Personnel in 2024 to 22.4% in 2025. That’s a 69-point drop. That’s interesting because Zac Robinson was the offensive coordinator in both seasons, so we can’t blame Arthur Smith. Kyle Pitts and Drake London benefited, as they both earned a target on 29% of their routes when the Falcons used play action. Pitts had a 2.77 yards per route with London at 3.93 during play action. Pitts was used inline (52.2%) with a 35.5% slot rate during 11-Personnel.

Besides the Falcons, the other teams that used more play action last season include:

• Buffalo Bills

  • Among Bills’ pass catchers with a 40% route percentage, these are the players with a target per route rate (TPRR) at 15% or higher last season. That list includes Dalton Kincaid (25% TPRR), Keon Coleman (18% TPRR), Josh Palmer (16% TPRR), Khalil Shakir (24% TPRR), and Gabe Davis (16% TPRR).

  • The Bills added DJ Moore on a Bears team that loves to use play action with Ben Johnson. Using the same 40% route rate marker, Moore (15% TPRR) trailed Luther Burden (24%), Colston Loveland (23%), Olamide Zaccheaus (23%), and Rome Odunze (23%) in target rate during play action last season. However, it’s worth highlighting that Moore ran a route on 85.3% of the team’s dropbacks during play action, with Odunze at 86.4%. Both led the team, suggesting Moore should be on the field often for the Bills.

• Chicago Bears

• Dallas Cowboys

• Las Vegas Raiders (Klink Kubiak should help this even more)

• Los Angeles Rams

• Miami Dolphins

  • With Mike McDaniel gone, we’re probably seeing the play action rate drop. However, Bobby Slowik stayed with the Dolphins, moving from Senior Pass Game Coordinator (2025) to Offensive Coordinator (2026) under former Packers Defensive Coordinator Jeff Hafley.

• New England Patriots

• Seattle Seahawks

Among the 9 NFL teams that used play action more often last season, here are the pass catchers (RB, WR, TE) who ran 25 or more routes and garnered a 25% target per route rate (TPRR) in 2025, per Fantasy Points Data.

12 WRs:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• Luther Burden

• Puka Nacua

• Stefon Diggs

• Ryan Flournoy

• Jaylen Waddle

• Rome Odunze

• Tre Tucker

• Malik Washington

• Keon Coleman

• KaVaontae Turpin

• CeeDee Lamb

8 TEs (3 LA TEs, not named Terrance Ferguson, who is at 18% TPRR and 2 LV TEs):

• Jake Ferguson

• Hunter Henry

• Tyler Higbee

• Michael Mayer

• Colby Parkinson

• Dawson Knox

• Brock Bowers

• Davis Allen
  
  2 RBs:

• D’Andre Swift

• TreVeyon Henderson

If anything, multiple players on the same team should be the primary takeaway. We included the Average Separation Scores, yards per route run, and win rates on play action plays to provide a more complete picture of these players for fantasy purposes.

Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees

New York Yankees’ starting pitcher Gerrit Cole struck out a season-high 11 against the Pirates. Cole consolidated his arsenal against righties and lefties on Wednesday. It was the 1st time Cole generated 20+ whiffs since August 2024.

Cole was throwing more four-seamers to RHH (59%) and LHH (47%), with the most notable change coming against RHH. For context, Cole was throwing four-seamers to RHH 47% of the time and heaters against lefties 43.8% before Wednesday.
He was pounding the four-seam in the zone 66% of the time while peppering them at the top edge of the zone, leading to a 27.8% swinging-strike rate and a 79% strike rate. Before Wednesday, Cole was throwing his four-seam in the zone 58.8% of the time and eliciting a 7.9% swinging-strike rate.

Jokes on me for not having Cole on my teams. The skills (18.7% K-BB%), stuff (103 Stuff+), and command (105 Location+) have been pretty solid.

Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals

Washington Nationals’ starting pitcher Cade Cavalli threw his 3rd straight quality start on Wednesday against the Rockies. Cavalli was throwing his knuckle curve (+1.9 mph), cutter (+2.1 mph), and sweeper (+1.7 mph) harder on Wednesday.

Cavalli was throwing his curveball more often in the zone (52%) on Wednesday. The curveball elicited a 19% swinging-strike rate on Wednesday, with opposing hitters chasing it 40% of the time.

The increased cutter usage to RHH (19%) and LHH (25%) is notable because he threw them under 5% to both sides of the plate before Wednesday. Cavalli uses the cutter to generate contact. That’s evident in Cavalli’s cutter allowing an 83.9% contact rate with a sneaky 46.4% chase rate in the small sample.

Cavalli’s skills (19.2% K-BB%) point toward an above-average pitcher, though the stuff (102 Stuff+) and command (98 Location+) suggest a bumpy ride.

Keider Montero, P, Tigers

Detroit Tigers’ pitcher Keider Montero rejoined the starting rotation after throwing in relief in 5 previous games. Montero pitched well (5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 SO, 1 HR) across 81 pitches against the Cubs, supported by a 17.3% swinging-strike rate and a 33% ball rate.
Montero led with the slider against righties (40%) with an 18.2% swinging-strike rate on Wednesday. He was throwing his sliders low and below the zone, leading to opposing hitters chasing 50% of the time.
Most of Montero’s 5 whiffs via the changeup (45.5% swinging-strike rate) came low and away from left-handed hitters. That’s evident in Montero’s changeup zone rate (45%) and chase rate (67%).

Montero continues to rely on his control (33.4% ball rate) and command (102 Location+). However, Montero’s strikeout skills via his 12% K-BB% and 7.8% swinging-strike rate raise concern.

July 23 Starting Pitcher Notes

Ian Seymour, SP, Rays

I wrote up Tampa Bay Rays’ pitcher Ian Seymour as someone who has been throwing more fastballs in June and July. Seymour was a follower and threw 6 innings with 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts against the Blue Jays.

4⃣The stuff models like Seymour’s four-seamer (104 Stuff+), which he threw for strikes (71%) and first-pitch strikes (57%) while generating a decent 14.2% swinging-strike rate against the Blue Jays. Interestingly, Seymour’s four-seamer lost 2 inches of induced vertical break and 2 inches of arm-side fade on Thursday.

🪙He consistently leans on the changeup against right-handed hitters, throwing it 33% of the time on Thursday, similar to his season-long average (35.4%). Meanwhile, Seymour’s changeup elicited a 27% swinging-strike rate, nearly 10 points higher than his season-long average. Seymour threw his changeup in the zone 38% of the time, but the Blue Jays were chasing it 56% of the time, compared to the changeup generating a 37.3% chase rate this season.

Seymour’s skills and expected ERA metrics point toward better outcomes.

Gavin Williams, SP, Guardians

Cleveland Guardians’ starting pitcher Gavin Williams elicited 20 whiffs for the 2nd time this season against the Twins on Thursday.

✍️Williams had a 20.6% swinging-strike rate and a 25% ball rate on Thursday. That’s significantly better than his 13.4% swinging-strike rate and 33.1% ball rate this season before Thursday.

🆙Williams was throwing his four-seamer over 2 mph (+2.1 mph) harder, which led to an additional inch of induced vertical break while losing 1 inch of arm-side fade. He also threw his curveball (+1.1 mph) and sinker (+1.3 mph) harder. Both his curveball and sinker shifted within 1 inch from a movement profile standpoint.

🧹Williams had his sweeper cooking, eliciting a 30% swinging-strike rate. He threw his sweeper in the zone 45% of the time with a 64% chase rate. That’s a slightly higher zone rate, though the Twins were chasing the sweeper significantly more than the season-long average (36.4%).

🪝He threw his curveball in the zone 61% of the time with a 43% chase rate and a 33.3% swinging-strike rate on Thursday. That’s a significantly higher zone rate (46.1%), chase rate (38.1%), and swinging-strike rate (11.8%) via the curveball this season before Thursday. Williams has been commanding his curveball well, with a 118 Location+ before Thursday compared to his career average (104 Location+).

I’ve been drawn to Williams this season, especially because he improved his command with above-average stuff.

Small-gap backfields can be defined as teams with running backs being drafted within 98.5 picks of each other. Meanwhile, big-gap backfields would be ones where the first two running backs on that team have an average draft position (ADP) gap that’s larger than 98.5 picks. All ADP data comes from FFPC Leagues. Think of backfields like San Francisco (Christian McCaffrey), Atlanta (Bijan Robinson), Philadelphia (Saquon Barkley), and Las Vegas (Ashton Jeanty) from last season.

We’ll refer to B1 and B2 backs as running the first running back (B1) and second (B2) in big-gap backfields. Similarly, S1, S2, and S3 will be the first, second, and third running backs drafted in small gap backfields. Typically, I’ve examined two running backs and the occasional third in the small gap backfields.

Historically, B1 and S2 backs have produced the best win rates, but at very different costs. B2 backs have produced average win rates, while S1 backs have historically been the worst performers.

However, 2025 showed us different results. The S1 backs had slightly higher win rates than the S2 backs. That’s mainly because S1 backs like Barkley, Jeanty, Bucky Irving, and Alvin Kamara had below-average win rates (under 6%) last season. However, there were big hits in B1 backs like Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Jonathan Taylor, and James Cook.

Then we had three S3 backs with a 10% win rate or higher. That list includes Woody Marks, Kenneth Gainwell, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The ZeroRB stans are cheering right now. The win rates by team and their respective running backs drafted on their team can be seen below from the 2025 season.

I don’t have historical data on S3s, but it’s a reminder that those late-round running backs can hit when chaos occurs. If you’re interested in the FFPC win rates by positions, check out my recent article below.

There are 14 teams with small-gap backfields this season, including six with three or more running backs being drafted within the top 250 picks. Those six teams are the Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, Seahawks (4), Titans, and Commanders.

Without getting too deep into the weeds, I’ll write up some brief notes on these small-gap backfields with three or more running backs drafted. We’ll cover the Broncos, Jaguars, and Vikings backfield below.

Small-Gap Backfields: DEN, JAX, MIN

• Broncos’ Backfield

  • RJ Harvey - S1 (91.8 ADP)

    • With JK Dobbins injured from Weeks 11-18, Harvey averaged 15.4 expected fantasy points per game (EP/G). Harvey accounted for 52% of the team’s rush attempts and an 11% target share. Running backs with a 50% rush share and double-digit target share in Weeks 11-18 include Tyrone Tracy Jr., Rico Dowdle, Achane, Aaron Jones, Chase Brown, Quinshon Judkins, McCaffrey, Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jeanty, and Taylor. The workload was solid for Harvey, but Dobbins is back, and they drafted a rookie early on Day 3.

  • JK Dobbins - S2 (102.1 ADP)

    • Dobbins handled 57% of the team’s rush attempts in Weeks 1-10 with the Broncos and a lowly 4% target share. The Broncos mixed in Harvey in Weeks 1-10 to handle 9% of the team’s targets at the running back position. With Dobbins healthy, the Broncos ranked 11th in neutral script pass rate (58%), which remained the same with Harvey as the primary running back in Weeks 11-18 (59%, tied for 5th). The Broncos had the sixth-best offensive line from an adjusted yards before contact standpoint, showing it was a favorable rushing environment.

  • Jonah Coleman - S3 (161.3 ADP)

    • I wrote up Coleman as a potential breakout candidate, though it’s a murky backfield. I’m betting on the talent, situation, and cheaper cost among the trio in the Broncos’ backfield. Coleman might arguably have the juiciest underlying metrics among the trio. He boasted a 31.2% missed tackle rate and 38.2% breakaway rush percentage in his final collegiate season. Though it’s a different animal in the NFL, Dobbins had a 20% missed tackle rate with Harvey at 16% last season.

    • Meanwhile, Dobbins was surprisingly more explosive as a rusher. He had a 7.8% explosive rush percentage (percentage of rushes of 15 or more yards), with Harvey at 2.7%. The main concern for Coleman involves the Broncos’ preferring to use man/gap run concepts. Dobbins ran 59.5% of his carries in man/gap concepts with Harvey at 61%. In college, Coleman primarily ran in zone concepts, with 26.1% of his carries coming in man/gap.

• Jaguars’ Backfield

  • Bhayshul Tuten - S1 (55.5 ADP)

    • Without Travis Etienne, fantasy managers have been pushing Tuten to the moon. The Jaguars ranked 13th in neutral script pass rate and 15th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt last season. Tuten handled 10 or more opportunities only three times: in Weeks 2, 9, and 11. In Week 11, when Tuten took 15 rush attempts, the Jaguars blew out the Chargers (35 to 6). In the small sample of 83 rush attempts, Tuten flashed a few optimistic underlying metrics, given his 57.8% rushing success rate (No. 3), 18% missed tackle rate (No. 4), and 64.8% of his yards after contact (No. 3) among players with 50 or more rush attempts. It’s easy to dream of Tuten’s skills in this offense.

  • Chris Rodriguez - S2 (136.1 ADP)

    • After Austin Ekeler was injured, the Commanders’ backfield was split three ways. Croskey-Merritt handled 37% of the team’s rush attempts, with Rodriguez at 29%. Jeremy McNichols sprinkled in with a 9% share of the team's rush. That was further split between their quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels played in five games after Week 2, rushing on 27% of the team's attempts with Marcus Mariota taking on 16%.

    • Rodriguez is a monster in yards after contact (YAC), with 68.2% of his rushing yards coming after contact and 3.04 YAC/Att. He could be the short-yardage back for the Jaguars, with 42.4% of the Commanders’ rush attempts coming inside the five-yard line. For context, Etienne took on 37.5% of the team’s rushes inside the five, with Tuten at 25%. Don’t sleep on QB Trevor Lawrence, who handled 31.3% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line with an 11% rushing touchdown rate.

    • It might not be at the same levels as Daniels and Mariota with the Commanders, but Lawrence’s 17% rush share last season will eat into Tuten and Rodriguez’s rushing workload. For context, Lawrence handled 11% of the team’s rush share in 2024 and 17% in 2023. Rodriguez will need rushing efficiency and a high percentage of the carries inside the five to outearn his draft cost.

  • LeQuint Allen - S3 (229.9 ADP)

    • Allen was on the field for 23% of the Jaguars’ snaps, slightly more than Tuten (21%) last season. However, he hardly touched the ball with 23 rush attempts and 11 targets in his rookie season. Allen was a strong pass blocker in college with a solid 9% receiving yardage market share and 1.30 yards per route run. Tuten wasn’t great from a pass-blocking perspective last season. Allen might handle those third-down snaps again this season.

• Vikings’ Backfield

  • Aaron Jones - S1 (115.2 ADP)

    • After handling a career-high in opportunities (317) in 2024, the workload plummeted in 2025, partly due to injuries and inefficiencies. Jones had a 63% snap share, 56% rush share, and a 12% target share in 2024. However, that was partly because the Vikings lacked running back depth, including Cam Akers, CJ Ham, Ty Chandler, and Myles Gaskin logging snaps in 2024. Minnesota traded for Mason and gave up three Day 3 picks to San Francisco in March 2025, with positive coach speak from Kevin O’Connell about goal-line and short-yardage usage.

    • Jones and Mason shared the workload throughout the season, but Jones’s 55% snap share and 47% rush share took a hit with a similar 14% target share in 2025. In Weeks 1-2 (before Jones suffered an injury), Mason was already eating into the shared backfield with 58% of the snaps and 53% rush share. Meanwhile, Jones handled 48% of the snaps with a 29% rush share in Weeks 1-2. From Week 8-18, Jones took most of the snaps (57%), rush attempts (50%), and targets (15%) compared to Mason’s snaps (31%) and carries (31%).

    • If you’re looking for an optimistic view on Jones, he finished the season strong with 58% of the snaps, 54% of the rushes, and 13% of the targets in Weeks 14-18. Mason was mostly healthy during that stretch, besides leaving Week 16 with an ankle injury, but he lost snaps (28%) and rush attempts (30%) in Weeks 14-18. Jones has seen his efficiency decline the past few seasons, averaging -0.7 FPOE/G (No. 123) in 2025, meaning he’ll need volume to thrive.

  • Jordan Mason - S2 (118.4 ADP)

    • In Weeks 3-7 without Jones, Mason handled a hefty workload. Mason was on the field for 67% of the snaps, with a 62% rush share and 5% target share. He was efficient as a rusher, averaging 3.3 rushing fantasy points over expectation (FPOE/G) in Weeks 3-7, ranking 7th in that four-game stretch. That’s mainly because of Mason’s four rushing touchdowns in four games while averaging 15 rush attempts and 70.5 rushing yards per game in Weeks 3-7.

    

    • Mason was better in nearly all the rushing advanced metrics compared to Jones. He had more explosive rushes (5.7%), a higher success rate (56%), more carries inside the five-yard line (53.8%), an 19% missed tackle rate, and over 2.30 yards before and after contact. Jones handled 42.9% of the team’s carries inside the five and slightly more yards before contact per attempt (2.48) last season.

  • Demond Claiborne - S3 (199.5 ADP)

    • I wrote up Claiborne as an intriguing late-round rookie this season, partly because of his athleticism and potential pass-catching role. However, the role of those third-down pass-catching backs has been dwindling over the past few seasons. Maybe Claiborne fits more in the LeQuint Allen mold, where there’s some intrigue, though he may steal snaps instead of fantasy-relevant touches.

  

  • J.J. McCarthy and Kyler Murray will be battling for the starting quarterback spot. Both have been known to use their legs as mobile quarterbacks. The historical data indicate that mobile quarterbacks don’t often pass to their running backs. Besides 2025, with Jacoby Brissett as the primary QB, the Cardinals and Vikings quarterbacks have hardly thrown to their running backs since 2021. That might limit Claiborne’s chances for pass-catching opportunities, with most of the value being in favor of Mason and Jones as the primary rushers when healthy. Even if Mason and Jones missed time, the Vikings would likely have another running back take on additional rush attempts in this backfield.

We’ll use the league win rates from the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) by position from the past few seasons to help us digest how we should value them heading into the 2026 fantasy football season.

Quarterback Win Rates in FFPC Leagues

Baker Mayfield was the only quarterback drafted inside the top 100 picks in FFPC leagues with a win rate above 10% last season. Meanwhile, we had 11 quarterbacks with a 10% win rate or higher drafted from picks 100 to 200 last year. That list includes Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, Cam Ward, and Sam Darnold.

The visual below shows the quarterbacks drafted within the top 150 picks in FFPC leagues, sorted by ADP, while including their win rates.

Last year’s data suggest we want to wait on the quarterback position in FFPC leagues, though it may translate to other formats, including home leagues. However, recency bias can be real, given that four quarterbacks were drafted in the top 100 in 2024 who had double-digit win rates. That list included Josh Allen (11.1%), Lamar Jackson (11.4%), Joe Burrow (16.4%), and Jayden Daniels (11.4%) with their win rates in parentheses from the 2024 season. Meanwhile, there were two quarterbacks drafted in the top 100 in 2023 with a 10% win rate or higher (Josh Allen and Dak Prescott), though it could be four if we rounded up for Lamar Jackson (9.9%) and Trevor Lawrence (9.9%).

The data suggests that this is the year to wait on the quarterback position.

Running Back Win Rates in FFPC Leagues

Among the top 100 picks at running back, nine players had a 10% win rate or higher in FFPC leagues, with the league average at 8.2%. That list includes Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, RJ Harvey, Jaylen Warren, and Travis Etienne. For context, there were 10 running backs in 2024, 9 in 2023, 10 in 2022, and 5 in 2021, with a 10% win rate or higher in FFPC leagues in the top 100 picks.

The visual below shows the running backs with a 10% win rate or higher in FFPC leagues last season.

Post-pick 100 in FFPC leagues, we had nine running backs with a 10% win rate or higher. That list includes Javonte Williams, Rachaad White, Tyler Allgeier, Rico Dowdle, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Woody Marks, Chris Rodriguez, Kyle Monangai, and Kenneth Gainwell. Marks, Rodriguez, Monangai, and Gainwell hit as deep sleepers. There were six running backs in 2024, eight in 2023, 10 in 2022, and 12 in 2021 that had a 10% win rate or higher going past pick 100 in FFPC leagues.

Those trends suggest similar win rates among running backs drafted highly within the top 100 picks. Meanwhile, the later-round running backs to help win leagues have been slowing down before 2025.

Wide Receiver Win Rates in FFPC Leagues

At wide receiver, there were 12 players within the top 100 and 10 receivers past pick 100 with a 10% win rate or higher in 2025. That’s similar to 2024, with 13 receivers posting a 10% win rate or higher within the top 100 picks and 11 past pick 100. In 2023, nine receivers had a 10% win rate within the top 100, and 13 came outside the top 100. However, 2023 might have been an outlier season with Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, and Rashee Rice as rookies.

The visual below shows the wide receivers with a 10% win rate or higher last season.

There were 12 receivers with a 10% win rate inside the top 100 in 2022, with 11 outside the top 100 picks. Like 2023, the 2021 season could be an outlier in recent years. There were seven receivers with a 10% win rate inside the top 100 and 16 receivers outside the top 100 in 2021. That was the Cooper Kupp explosion with a 31.1% win rate in 2021. Furthermore, Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown hit as rookies past pick 100.

If anything, the running back data might be more actionable than the receivers. However, it’s worth highlighting that taking rookie receivers in the middle to late rounds of drafts can help win leagues, especially if their real-life NFL Draft capital is favorable (Day 1 or Day 2).

Tight End Win Rates in FFPC Leagues

There have been talks about drafting elite tight ends being a profitable strategy at times. However, Trey McBride and Travis Kelce were the only two tight ends with a 10% win rate or higher in FFPC leagues inside the top 100 picks last season. However, seven tight ends had a 10% win rate or higher from picks 100 to 200 last year. That includes Jake Ferguson (14.9%), Dallas Goedert (11.7%), Kyle Pitts (11.7%), Hunter Henry (12.1%), Zach Ertz (14.9%), Cade Otton (10.9%), and Dalton Schultz (13.3%).

Unsurprisingly, McBride (13.6%), Kittle (14.8%), Brock Bowers (17.3%), and Pat Freiermuth (10.8%) boasted elite win rates at the position in the top 100 picks in 2024. However, it was less fruitful from picks 100 to 200, including Otton (13.9%), Jonnu Smith (20.8%), and Mike Gesicki (11.9%), garnering a double-digit win rate in 2024.

Meanwhile, a similar trend from 2023, including Kittle (12.3%), Evan Engram (10.9%), and David Njoku (13.3%), in the top 100 picks. From picks 100 to 200 in 2023, four tight ends posted a double-digit win rate. That includes Cole Kmet (17.6%), Dalton Kincaid (12.8%), Sam LaPorta (19.4%), and McBride (14.7%).

Walbert Ureña, SP, Angels

After a brutal outing against the Athletics (4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO), Los Angeles Angels’ starting pitcher Walbert Ureña was pretty fortunate against the Mariners on Thursday (5.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 SO). Ureña elicited a 15.9% swinging-strike rate and a 37% ball rate on Thursday.

🪙The Mariners stacked left-handed hitters (71%). Ureña’s changeup was peppered low and toward his arm side, leading to a 20.5% swinging-strike rate, up from 17% in 2026. He threw his changeup 54% of the time, up from 43.3% before Thursday. The changeup was a called-strike (43%) and first-pitch (77%) strike machine, helping it be dominant.

🧹Ureña’s sweeper sneakily performed well against RHH, eliciting a 23.5% swinging-strike rate with 0 hard-hit batted balls on Thursday. Like the changeup, Ureña’s sweeper was generating called strikes (47%) and first-pitch strikes (100%) against the Mariners.

Since Ureña generates weak contact, his 3.27 xERA before Thursday has been the most optimistic ERA estimator.

Bryce Miller, SP, Mariners

Seattle Mariners’ starting pitcher Bryce Miller threw 7 scoreless innings against the Angels on Thursday. Miller had his 4th game with 15 or more whiffs this season after 2 in 2025, 4 in 2024, and 5 in 2023.

🔥Miller had the splitter (20%) and four-seamer (20%) cooking from a swinging-strike rate standpoint. His splitter and four-seamer accounted for 14 of his 15 whiffs on Thursday against the Angels. For context, Miller’s four-seamer had a 10.7% SwK with the splitter generating a 17% SwK before Thursday this season.

⏩Unsurprisingly, Miller pounded the zone with his four-seamer (74%) while locating most of them in the upper parts of the zone on Thursday. That’s significantly higher than his four-seam zone rate (56.1%) before Thursday.

🪓He threw the splitter in the zone 49% of the time on Thursday, down from 54.6% this season. That’s the highest zone rate from the splitter in his career. Interestingly, Miller’s splitter boasts a 115 Stuff+ and a 115 Location+. Specifically, Miller has been commanding his splitter better, up from a 103 Location+ throughout his career.

I’ve got major FOMO with Miller this season after being worried about the injury history.

Ian Seymour, P, Rays

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Ian Seymour has been used as a starter and a follower throughout the season. Seymour threw a quality start (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 8 SO) against the Royals on Thursday. He elicited an 18.1% swinging-strike rate while posting a 34% ball rate across an efficient 83 pitches in 6 innings.

🧹Seymour’s sweeper led his arsenal, with a 27% swinging-strike rate on Thursday, significantly higher than his season-long average (17.7% SwK). He was wildly pumping sweepers in the zone (62%) while generating called strikes (35%) and first-pitch strikes (83%). For context, Seymour was throwing his sweeper in zone 57.1% of the time in 2026. That aligns with Seymour’s sweeper Stuff+ (123), skyrocketing to an elite pitch in the stuff models.

⏩Besides Seymour’s sweeper, he pounded the zone with four-seamers (72%), up nearly 20 points from a 53% zone rate this season. Some of Seymour’s four-seam whiffs came in the upper parts and in the heart of the zone on Thursday. The four-seam has a 108 Stuff+ and a 99 Location+ before Thursday in 2026.

Seymour warrants more attention with a 15.5% K-BB%, 13% swinging-strike rate, and a 3.90 SIERA.

Texas Rangers’ starting pitcher Jacob deGrom posted his 4th game this season with 20 or more whiffs. deGrom had 3 games with 20 or more whiffs in 2025, 3 in 2023, and 7 in 2022.

👀deGrom threw a quality start against the Marlins on Wednesday. He was cooking, with a 26.4% swinging-strike rate and a 36% ball rate on Wednesday. deGrom had a 16.6% swinging-strike rate and a 34.1% ball rate in 2026 before Wednesday’s outing.

✅The slider (26.7% SwK) and four-seamer (28.1% SwK) were doing most of the heavy lifting. deGrom had his four-seam generating whiffs in the upper third of the zone, with his sliders eliciting whiffs low and toward his glove side.

Though deGrom’s 108 Stuff+ dipped from his career average (114), he still possesses high-end skills and command, making him one of the better starting pitchers.

Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates’ starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft was setting records on Wednesday against the Mariners. Ashcraft threw 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, and 10 strikeouts. He had a 17.4% swinging-strike rate and a 21% ball rate on Wednesday, showing some strong control and near-elite strikeout stuff.

🪝The Mariners were stacking right-handed hitters (RHH) against Ashcraft (67%) on Wednesday. Ashcraft’s curveball generated a 27.6% swinging-strike rate, 53% chase rate, 76% strike rate, and a 52% called-strike rate on Wednesday. He was peppering the curveball low and below the zone (34% zone rate).

⏩Ashcraft was pounding his four-seamer in the zone 58% of the time, mostly in the upper parts of the zone. That led to Ashcraft’s four-seamer garnering first pitch strikes (83%) and called strikes (31%) relatively often.

Ashcraft continues to flash above-average stuff (105 Stuff+) and command (104 Location+) before Wednesday.

Shohei Ohtani, SP, Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers’ starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani had his 2nd game with 20 or more whiffs this season. Ohtani elicited a 31.5% swinging-strike rate and a 36% ball rate on Wednesday against the Twins.

🆙Ohtani’s velocity was up 2 mph on nearly all his pitches, with the lone exception being the four-seamer (+1.9 mph), though we could round up. That led to most of his pitches losing downward and horizontal movement.

🧹Ohtani’s sweeper led the charge, with a 37% swinging-strike rate. His sweeper lost 2 inches of downward movement and 1 inch of glove-side sweep while throwing them 3 mph harder. Ohtani pounded the zone (63% zone rate) while opposing hitters chased (50%) and had the sweeper land for called strikes (59%).

Ohtani has strong skills (19.4% K-BB% and a 13% SwK). However, Ohtani’s stuff (113 Stuff+) was better than his command (98 Location+) before Wednesday.

Detroit Tigers’ starting pitcher Framber Valdez was one of the pitchers who projected to improve based on the OOPSY Rest of the Season Projections. Valdez threw a quality start against the Yankees (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO).

🤪Valdez’s sinker weirdly generated a 17.1% swinging-strike rate on Monday, as he pounded the zone with sinkers 61% of the time. The zone rate is similar to his season-long averages, but that’s a significantly higher swinging-strike rate, over three times his career average (4.9%).

🪝Right- and left-handed hitters were chasing and whiffing against Valdez’s curveball, leading to a 16.7% swinging-strike rate, 33% zone rate, and a 40% chase rate. Not only was Valdez’s curveball generating whiffs, but it was landing for called strikes (40%) and first-pitch strikes (83%).

Valdez lost groundballs and whiffs this season, but the longer track record tells us to be patient.

Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles

Baltimore Orioles’ starting pitcher Kyle Bradish was due for better results based on his skills. Bradish threw an 8-inning quality start with zero earned runs, 6 hits, 1 walk, and 9 strikeouts against the Angels.

✍️He had a 12.9% swinging-strike rate and a 34% ball rate on Monday against the Angels. That’s notably better than Bradish’s 10.8% swinging-strike rate and a 38.9% ball rate in 2026 before Monday.

🛝Bradish’s velocity was up over 1 mph across his four pitches, including an increase of 1.7 mph via the slider. That led to Bradish’s slider losing 1 inch of downward movement and 5 inches of glove-side sweep with the additional velocity. He was throwing his slider low and below the zone (20% zone rate) while opposing hitters chased them 46% of the time. Bradish had a 37.2% zone rate and a 38.3% chase rate via the slider in 2026.

2025 might’ve been an outlier for Bradish, but there’s still an above-average starting pitcher within the range of outcomes.

Kumar Rocker, SP, Rangers

Texas Rangers’ Kumar Rocker set a career high with 20 whiffs on Monday against the Marlins, as a follower after Tyler Alexander. Rocker boasted a 26.3% swinging-strike rate and a 34% ball rate on Monday.

🛝Rocker’s slider was cooking with a 43.6% swinging-strike rate against the Marlins. His slider led his arsenal against RHH (55%) and LHH (50%) on Monday. Rocker’s slider usage is slightly more than his pitch percentage to RHH (39%) and LHH (37.4%).

🪫Rocker was peppering his slider low and below the zone, given his 26% zone rate and 55% chase rate. For context, Rocker’s slider zone rate was at 37.4% with a 37.7% chase rate this season.

I’ve been intrigued by Rocker’s slider stuff in the past, but it’s hard to predict a one-pitch pitcher.

Brandon Woodruff, SP, Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers’ starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff made his return off the injured list, throwing six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts, 1 hit, and zero walks across an efficient 79 pitches against the Reds.

✍️Woodruff had a 12.7% swinging-strike rate and a 33% ball rate against the Reds. That’s somewhat similar to his career ball rate (33%) and swinging-strike rate (12.4%).

⏩Woodruff’s heater led his arsenal with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate. He threw his four-seamer in the zone 56% of the time, mostly in the upper third. Woodruff’s four-seamer elicited a 13% career swinging-strike rate while throwing them in the zone 59.5% of the time.

Woodruff’s four-seam (104) and slider (115) Stuff+ lead his arsenal, as the only two pitches with an above-average Stuff+ grade. It’s hard to fade those results from Woodruff, rewarding patient fantasy managers.

Joey Cantillo, SP, Guardians

I’m having some FOMO about Joey Cantillo’s quality start against the Astros on Saturday (8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 9 SO) after cutting him in a points league. Cantillo set a career-high in whiffs (20), leading to a 20.4% swinging-strike rate and a 28% ball rate on Saturday.

🆙Cantillo’s velocity was up over 1 mph on his curveball (+1.6 mph), changeup (+1.2 mph), and four-seam (+1.7 mph) on Saturday. The curveball generated a 29.5% swinging-strike rate, which he was throwing plenty of against right-handed (43%) and left-handed (50%) hitters.

🪝He was peppering his curveball low and below the zone (36% zone rate) while opposing hitters chasing 61% of the time. That’s lower than his curveball’s zone rate (44.7%) and significantly higher than his 34.8% chase rate. Unsurprisingly, Cantillo’s curveball Stuff+ (110) is one of his best pitches from a stuff standpoint.

🪙Cantillo was throwing his changeup in the zone 56% of the time, yet hitters only chased 8% on Saturday. That’s nearly 15 points higher than Cantillo’s changeup zone rate in 2026 (41.2%), yet it had a 31.8% chase rate. Like Cantillo’s curveball, his changeup has a 111 Stuff+, as one of his two pitches with an above-average stuff grade.

Cantillo’s 9.9% K-BB% has been brutal after a K-BB% above 16% in his previous two seasons. He lost stuff and command this season, so it’s been a bumpy ride.

Walbert Ureña, SP, Angels

Los Angeles Angels Walbert Ureña threw five shutout innings against the Athletics, with four hits, zero walks, and six strikeouts across 90 pitches. Ureña had an 18.9% swinging-strike rate and a 36% ball rate on Saturday, setting a career-best with 17 whiffs.

🪙Ureña’s changeup was thrown 1.5 mph slower and added 2 inches of downward movement. His changeup elicited a 21.2% swinging-strike rate, with most of his whiffs coming low and away from left-handed hitters on Saturday. He was throwing his changeup in the zone 33% of the time, much lower than his 41.7% zone rate before Saturday. Opposing hitters were chasing (41%) and whiffing against Ureña’s changeup.

✍️Ureña’s sinker weirdly generated a 26.3% swinging-strike rate, with a 53% called strike rate and a 71% strike percentage on Saturday against the Athletics. There’s a good chance the Athletics had a hard time tracking his changeup and sinker, with similar induced movement profiles.

Control has been an issue for Ureña, with a 40.3% ball rate and a 10.9% swinging-strike rate before Saturday. Ureña has been fortunate, with a mixed bag via his 3.33 xERA and 4.69 SIERA.

Connelly Early, SP, Red Sox

After Connelly Early allowed 12 earned runs (7.36 ERA) with a 1.98 WHIP since June 1, he bounced back with a quality start (6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, and 7 SO) across 98 pitches against the Mariners. Early had a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and a 42% ball rate, significantly different than his season-long ball rate (35.8%) and swinging-strike rate (9.2%).

⏩Early’s four-seam was thrown over 1 mph harder on Saturday, leading to an additional inch of induced vertical break and arm-side fade. The four-seamer elicited a 15.4% swinging-strike rate on Saturday, nearly five points above his career average (10.5%).

✍️He boasted a 79th percentile extension, potentially helping his four-seam fare better when he locates them in the upper parts of the zone. Early’s four-seam generated whiffs, called strikes (38%), and first-pitch strikes (60%) on Saturday.

🧹Most of Early’s sweeper whiffs were low and away from left-handed hitters. Early’s sweeper elicited a 20% swinging-strike on Saturday, significantly better than his career average (16.8%).

We might have overvalued his small sample in 2025 from a skills standpoint. That means we should temper our expectations on Early because he looks more like a mediocre starting pitcher from a skills (13.1% K-BB%, 9.2% SwK), stuff (101 Stuff+), and command (98 Location+) standpoint.

After giving up 10 earned runs in 8 innings over the past two starts, Baltimore Orioles’ starting pitcher Kyle Bradish threw a quality start (7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, and 12 SO) against the Mariners on Wednesday. Bradish had an 18% swinging-strike rate with a 35% ball rate on Wednesday.

• Bradish’s breaking pitches were cooking, with a 27.6% swinging-strike rate via the curveball and the slider eliciting a 36.8% swinging-strike rate on Wednesday. That’s been significantly better than Bradish’s swinging-strike rate via the curveball (18.4%) and slider (15%) in 2026 before Wednesday.

• He threw his curveball 1.5 mph harder, with the slider being thrown nearly 2 mph harder (1.9 mph). Bradish’s slider lost 3 inches of drop and lost 2 inches of glove-side sweep. The Mariners were chasing the curveball 46% of the time, though it was often used for called strikes (38%) and first-pitch strikes (55%).

• Control has been an issue for Bradish, with a 39.2% ball rate. That impacts his 10.5% K-BB% after being above 23% over the two seasons.

Sandy Alcantara, SP, Marlins

Miami Marlins’ starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara posted his first game of the season with more than 15 whiffs in a game (18 whiffs, 17.6% swinging-strike rate) against the Phillies on Wednesday. The last time Alcantara had more than 15 whiffs came in September 2025.

• Alcantara was throwing a harder changeup (+1.1 mph), which meant it lost 1 inch of downward and horizontal movement. His changeup was generating whiffs (17.9% SwK) and weak contact (78.9 mph), specifically against left-handed hitters.

• His sweeper was wildly effective, with a 46.7% SwK, though he threw them 15% of the time. The sweeper has been most effective against righties (.163 wOBA, .100 xwOBA) compared to lefties (.547 wOBA, .450 xwOBA).

• Alcantara might not be a high-end starting pitcher like peak seasons. The stuff models suggest above-average Stuff+ and Location+ grades for Alcantara, though it could be a bumpy ride based on the lack of strikeout skills.

Nolan McLean, SP, Mets

New York Mets’ starting pitcher Nolan McLean threw 7 scoreless innings on Wednesday against the Reds. McLean had a 9.9% swinging-strike rate and a 38% ball rate on Wednesday.

⏩McLean’s four-seam led his arsenal from a whiff standpoint, eliciting an 18.5% swinging-strike rate. Several of McLean’s four-seam whiffs came high and above the zone, leading to opposing hitters chasing the heater. He has been commanding his heater better (98 Location+) this season while boasting an above-average 105 Stuff+.

🪝It was a small sample of three whiffs, but McLean’s curveball generated a 33.3% swinging-strike rate. He located the curveball low and below the zone, with a 33% zone rate. Meanwhile, McLean’s curveball had opposing hitters chasing 67% of the time. The curveball leads his arsenal from a Stuff+ (128) standpoint, which drops (9th-highest) and sweeps (2nd-highest) the most inches compared to the league average pitch type.

Though McLean has been struggling since May 1 (4.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 14.4% K-BB%), he might be a buy-low candidate based on the stuff (108 Stuff+), skills (18.9% K-BB%), and SIERA (3.49) across the entire season.

Sean Burke, SP, White Sox

Chicago White Sox pitcher Sean Burke was a follower for the 4th time this season. Burke threw 7.1 innings with 5 hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, and eight strikeouts against the Yankees. He set a career high with 20 whiffs on Thursday.

🌬️Burke had a 22.7% swinging-strike rate and a 26% ball rate on Thursday. That’s significantly better than Burke’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate and a 35% ball rate this season before Thursday.

⏩Burke’s four-seamer was thrown 1.9 mph harder on Thursday, losing 1 inch of induced vertical break and gaining 1 inch of arm-side fade. The four-seamer elicited a 24.3% swinging-strike, with several whiffs coming in the upper parts of the zone on Thursday.

✍️Meanwhile, Burke’s four-seamer garnered called strikes (43%) and first-pitch strikes (75%), as he pounded the zone with heaters 62% of the time. That aligns with Burke’s four-seamer boasting a 115 Stuff+ before Thursday.

🛝Burke’s gyro-like slider had a 21.4% swinging-strike rate, which he primarily threw to righties (52%). Like the heater, Burke’s slider was a machine for called strikes (50%) and strikes (71%). The slider command has been pristine with a 111 Location+ before Thursday, as one of three pitches with a Location+ above 105.

Burke profiles as a command-over-stuff pitcher. However, Burke’s stuff might be better than people realize, making him a legitimate deep-league pitcher.

Shane Baz, SP, Orioles

Baltimore Orioles’ starting pitcher Shane Baz has been pitching better recently. Since May 15 (before Thursday), Baz posted a 2.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.2% K-BB%, and 8.5% swinging-strike rate. That suggests Baz has been fortunate, as he was treading water with a 102 Location+ and 99 Stuff+ since May 15.

✍️Baz threw a quality start against the Mariners on Thursday, eliciting a 13.1% swinging-strike rate and a 37% ball rate. That’s a better swinging-strike rate than his season-long average (8.8%), yet a similar ball rate (36.5%) before Thursday. After three runs in the first inning, Baz settled down to throw six scoreless.

✂️Baz’s cutter led his arsenal with a 31.6% swinging-strike rate, nearly triple his season-long average (10.8%) before Thursday. The cutter generated called strikes (47%) while generating first-pitch strikes 100% of the time against the Mariners.

✂️His cutter operates as a gyro-like slider that pounds the zone (63%) while generating hitters to chase (57%) on Thursday. Baz’s matchup against the Mariners might be an outlier because he threw the cutter in the zone 61.7% of the time with a lowly 28.3% chase rate.

After Baz had better stuff (103 Stuff+) than command (100 Location+) throughout his career, his stuff regressed (99 Stuff+). Baz’s sinker (107), cutter (102), and knuckle curve (118) have been commanded well from a Location+ standpoint since May 15.

Pittsburgh Pirates’ starting pitcher Jared Jones struggled against the Athletics on Monday. Jones had a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and a 43% ball rate on Monday. That’s worse control (38.5% ball rate) and a similar swinging-strike rate (14%) before Monday’s outing.

🎮Jones has been commanding his pitches well, with a 108 Location+ with above-average stuff (101 Stuff+). Specifically, Jones’s four-seam (111) and changeup (113) have been leading his arsenal from a Location+ standpoint. On Monday against the Athletics, he was locating his four-seamer in the upper parts toward his arm side with the changeups peppered low and below the zone.

I would be buying low on Jones because he has been allowing tons of hits (.360 BABIP) and giving up home runs (18.2% HR/F). Jones’s 3.94 xFIP and 3.93 SIERA point toward better skills and outcomes.

Logan Gilbert, SP, Mariners

Seattle Mariners’ starting pitcher Logan Gilbert had his first game of the season with 10 or more strikeouts against the Orioles.

⏩Gilbert’s four-seamer was cooking, with a 22.2% swinging-strike rate, as he pounded the zone with the heater 72% of the time. Some of Gilbert’s four-seam whiffs were in the upper parts, with others in the heart of the zone. His four-seamer was generating called strikes (37%) and first-pitch strikes (89%) on Tuesday.

🛝Meanwhile, Gilbert’s slider elicited a 36.8% swinging-strike rate, as a pitch he threw low and below the zone toward his glove side. Gilbert threw his slider in the zone 21% of the time with a 47% chase rate on Tuesday. For context, Gilbert threw his slider in the zone 49% of the time with an arsenal-best 40.5% chase rate before Tuesday.

Gilbert has near-elite skills (19.6% K-BB%, 13% SwK, and a 111 Pitching+), so we should see more of these peak performances.

Baltimore Orioles’ starting pitcher Brandon Young has been throwing a slower splitter over the past five starts. Young’s splitter has been thrown nearly 2 mph slower while adding 3 inches of downward movement compared to the season-long average.

Brandon Young, SP, Orioles

🪓Unfortunately, Young’s splitter generated zero whiffs on Tuesday against the Mariners. However, he commands the splitter well, with a 112 Location+ this season, leading his entire arsenal from a Location+ standpoint. Young tends to rely upon his command, given his overall 106 Location+.

⏩Though Young’s four-seamer elicited an 8.8% swinging-strike rate, he was peppering the heaters in the upper third of the zone to generate weak contact (82.9 mph exit velocity). He had a 107 Location+ via the four-seamer, which has been performing better against lefties (.214 wOBA, .298 xwOBA) than righties (.298 wOBA, .345 xwOBA).

Young was a deep-league streaming pitcher option this week. He might warrant more intrigue because of his command-focused profile, especially in friendly matchups.

We’ll highlight a few starting pitchers from Monday, June 15th, below.

Chase Burns, SP, Reds

Cincinnati Reds’ starting pitcher Chase Burns threw 5 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts and 19 whiffs (19% swinging-strike rate) against the Mets. Burns has been posting near-elite skills, with a 21.9% K-BB%, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, and a 113 Stuff+ before Monday.

2⃣Burns has been a four-seamer (62%) and slider (30%) machine against both sides of the plate. His four-seamer elicited a 25.8% swinging-strike rate with the slider at 30%. For context, Burns’s four-seamer had an 8% swinging-strike rate with the slider (26.2% SwK) leading the arsenal.

Four-seamers in the upper third of the zone with sliders located low and toward his glove side have been a recipe for success. If Burns develops a third consistent pitch, he’ll be even more dangerous.

MacKenzie Gore, SP, Rangers

Texas Rangers’ starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore logged 10 strikeouts against the Twins for the 1st time in 2026. Gore had a 16.7% swinging-strike rate and a 31% ball rate on Monday against the Twins. That’s significantly better than Gore’s 36% ball rate and a 11.4% swinging-strike rate before Monday.

⏩Gore pounded the zone with four-seamers 59% of the time on Monday. The heater was generating called strikes (37%) and first-pitch strikes (69%) while eliciting whiffs (21.6% swinging-strike rate). Gore challenged the Twins’ hitters and attacked them.

🪙Meanwhile, Gore’s changeup elicited a 25% swinging-strike rate, most of which came low and toward his arm side against right-handed hitters. The changeup has been an option for weak contact against righties (.171 wOBA, .240 xwOBA) before Monday.

I loved Gore as a breakout option with a new team, but it’s been bumpy as expected.

Dustin May, SP, Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals’ starting pitcher Dustin May hadn’t gone past 7 innings before Monday, throwing a complete game shutout with 1 hit, 1 walk, and 9 strikeouts against the Padres on Monday. May had a 14.9% swinging-strike rate with a 32% ball rate on Monday.

🧹May’s sweeper led his arsenal with 6 whiffs (31.6% swinging-strike rate). He was throwing his sweeper in the zone 47% of the time, compared to a 39.4% zone rate this season. Opposing hitters were chasing the sweeper 50% of the time on Monday, significantly higher than in 2026 before Monday (30%).

✂️May’s cutter elicited a 15.8% swinging-strike rate, as something he throws against both sides of the plate. He has been throwing cutters 27.3% of the time to left-handed hitters in 2026 before Monday, similar to Monday’s outing (30%). The cutter looks like a gyro-like version of his sweeper. For context, May’s cutter has been performing better (.326 wOBA, .293 xwOBA) against lefties in 2026 compared to 2025 (.540 wOBA, .427 xwOBA).

May has shown one of his best K-BB% (15.3%) with above-average stuff (103 Stuff+) and command (101 Location+), supporting his 3.88 SIERA. I liked May in the past, but we’re remaining cautious.

Regular Fantasy Baseball Articles:

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Payton Tolle, SP, Red Sox

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle threw six scoreless innings against the Orioles on Wednesday. Tolle had a 17.2% swinging-strike rate and a 31% ball rate on Wednesday.

⏩Tolle’s electric four-seam fastball generated a 17% swinging-strike rate on Wednesday, which had plenty of called strikes as he threw them often in the zone. The zone and swinging-strike rates have been similar to his career averages, with a few more whiffs.

✂️Tolle’s cutter was thrown 2 mph slower, and led to 4 additional inches of drop. The cutter elicited a 27.8% swinging-strike rate, with 4 of 5 coming low and below the zone.

I’ve been high on Tolle and impressed by him this season.

Stephen Kolek, SP, Royals

Oops, Kansas City Royals’ starting pitcher Stephen Kolek did it again by commanding his pitches well for his 4th quality start against the Reds on Wednesday. Kolek had a 9.4% swinging-strike rate and a 41% ball rate against the Reds.

🛝Kolek’s slider led his arsenal in whiffs (36.8% swinging-strike rate), with most of his sliders being located low and toward his glove side. He has been locating his slider in the zone at a consistent rate, but opposing hitters have been chasing more often.

🎯Kolek has been a command artist (111 Location+), with four pitches showing above-average locations. That’s been evident via Kolek’s four-seam (115 Location+), sinker (126 Location+), cutter (103 Location+), and changeup (112 Location+).

Be cautious about Kolek sustaining his outcomes.

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Bubba Chandler, SP, Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler set a career-best with 22 whiffs and 11 strikeouts on Friday against the Blue Jays. Chandler had a 22.2% swinging-strike rate and a 36% ball rate on Friday, with velocity upticks on multiple pitches, though some have been lightly used.

⏩Chandler’s four-seam added nearly 1 mph of velocity (+0.9 mph) with an additional inch of induced vertical break. The four-seamer led Chandler’s arsenal from a swinging-strike rate perspective, given his 23.3% SwK as a pitch he peppered across the top of the zone against the Blue Jays.

✍️He increased his sinker usage to right-handed hitters, throwing them 29% of the time on Friday, up from 4.1% in 2026 before Friday. The sinker was thrown 2 mph harder on Friday, resulting in a 3-inch drop loss and 1 inch of arm-side fade. That’s an interesting pitch mix change via the sinker, potentially leading to plenty of grounders and weak contact, including hitters being caught off guard, expecting the four-seamer.

Chandler had a 5.65 SIERA and 4.93 xERA, yet his skills have been awful (2.6% K-BB% and 9% SwK). Hopefully, this is a launching point for Chandler.

Payton Tolle, SP, Red Sox

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle threw a quality start against the Twins (6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 SO) across an efficient 85 pitches on Friday. Tolle had a 17.6% swinging-strike rate and a 33% ball rate on Friday.

👉The Twins stacked right-handed hitters against Tolle (78%) while maintaining his four-pitch mix against righties in 2026. Tolle’s four-seamer was cooking with a 20.5% swinging-strike rate while being located in the upper part of the zone or above.

✌️Tolle pounded the sinker in the zone 71% of the time to generate weak contact (79.1 mph exit velocity), steal called strikes (38%), and first-pitch strikes (85%). Unfortunately, Tolle’s sinker has been rocked against right-handed hitters, given his .523 wOBA (.553 xwOBA).

🪝He threw a harder curveball (+2 mph) on Friday, aligning with the curveball losing 4 inches of downward movement. All of Tolle’s curveball whiffs came when he threw them low and below the zone, given his 44% zone rate and 60% chase rate on Friday. Tolle’s curveball zone rate has been similar to the 2026 numbers, but it’s worth highlighting that opposing hitters chased Tolle’s curveball 57.1% of the time in 2026.

Tolle has been relying upon his stuff (110 Stuff+), including three pitches with a 110 Stuff+ or higher (four-seam, curveball, and changeup), while continuing to struggle with command (94 Location+). It’s easy to like Tolle.

Noah Cameron, SP, Royals

Of course, Kansas City Royals’ starting pitcher Noah Cameron would throw six shutout innings, with 4 hits, 2 walks, and 8 strikeouts across 96 pitches against the Mariners on Friday. Cameron had a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and a 37% ball rate.

🪝Cameron has been using four pitches at a double-digit rate against right-handed hitters in 2026. His curveball led his arsenal in whiffs (5), leading to a 33.3% swinging-strike rate, with most of them low and below the zone against the Mariners. Furthermore, Cameron’s curveball had 53% called-strike rate while generating first-pitch strikes 50% of the time.

🪙He weirdly threw all 18 changeups to right-handed hitters in the zone 67% of the time with a 0% chase rate and an 11.1% swinging-strike rate. For context, Cameron’s changeup had 39.6% zone rate and a 30.9% chase rate. The changeup was graded as one of his best pitches as a prospect, but his 96 Stuff+ fell from 106 in 2026 before Friday.

Cameron tends to rely on command (106 Location+), mainly via his four-seam (+16), cutter (+3), and slider (+6), making him a command-over-stuff type profile.

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Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers’ starting pitcher Roki Sasaki reached career highs in innings (7) and strikeouts (8) in an outing throughout his brief career. Sasaki had a 19.8% swinging-strike rate and a low 24% ball rate on Sunday against the Angels. For context, Sasaki had a 10.7% swinging-strike rate and 39% ball rate in his career before Sunday.

⏩Sasaki was pumping four-seamers in the zone 80% of the time on Sunday. The four-seam added 3 inches of arm-side run while generating strikes at a high rate after he threw the heater in the zone, 52.5% of the time in 2026, down from 63.6% (2025). He was probably fortunate to throw the four-seam in the zone that often on Sunday since the Angels were hitting them hard like the season-long results against righties (.598 wOBA, .547 xwOBA).

🛝Since Sasaki’s slider has been one of his best pitches against right-handed hitters (.182 wOBA, .125 xwOBA), it would make sense to throw it more often. He threw sliders 43% of the time to right-handed hitters on Sunday, compared to 24% in 2026. Sasaki’s slider elicited a 28% swinging-strike, as he located them low and away from right-handed hitters on Sunday.

🪓Sasaki’s splitter was thrown nearly 2 mph (-1.9) slower on Sunday, leading to 3 more inches of drop with the spin rate dropping by over 100 RPM (-140 RPM). He mostly peppered the splitter low and away from left-handed hitters, though some hitters chased low and below.

Sasaki’s Stuff+ (107) and command (104 Location+) have been much better over the past three outings before Sunday. I might regret the drop earlier in the season.

Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies

Zack Wheeler was off my draft board, which has been looking pretty silly so far in 2026 after throwing 7 scoreless innings, with 4 hits, 1 walk, and 8 strikeouts against the Pirates on Sunday. Wheeler’s velocity was up over 1 mph on all his pitches on Sunday, inching closer to his 2025 numbers.

⏩Wheeler was pumping his four-seamers in the upper parts of the zone, leading to opposing hitters chasing them above the zone, given his 50% chase rate. After Wheeler threw his four-seamer in the zone 60-61% of the time, it dropped to 56% in 2026 before Sunday (40%). That coincides with hitters chasing the heater more often in 2026 (38.2%) after being around 26-27% over the past few seasons.

🪓Wheeler has been increasing the splitter usage to left-handed hitters, throwing it 16% on Sunday and 17.9% in 2026 before Sunday’s outing. For context, Wheeler’s splitter was thrown 10-11% of the time against lefties in previous seasons. Though Wheeler’s splitter elicited zero whiffs on Sunday, it had a 27.1% swinging-strike rate while generating weak contact against lefties (.180 wOBA, .231 xwOBA).

Wheeler’s stuff and command numbers have dropped, yet are somewhat similar to recent seasons and his career averages.

Lucas Giolito, SP, Padres

The San Diego Padres called up Lucas Giolito on Sunday against the Mariners, who had okay results, though his velocity was down 3 mph or more on 3 of 4 pitches. If we rounded up, Giolito’s velocity would’ve been down by 3 mph on each of his pitches on Sunday.

😬He outperformed his expected metrics last season, and his 2026 debut was underwhelming, given his 6.4% swinging-strike rate and 44% ball rate on Sunday. For context, Giolito had a 10.2% swinging-strike rate and 36% ball rate in 2025.

⏩Giolito’s four-seam had a middling 9.3% swinging-strike rate on Sunday. However, the heater was generating called strikes (33%) and first-pitch strikes (73%). Giolito was probably lucky with the four-seamer because it allowed a 5 hard hits (95+ mph exit velocity) and a 97.1 mph average exit velocity on Sunday.

Giolito’s stuff has been trending downward, so it’s hard to consider him as a streamer with some confidence.

Cleveland Guardians’ starting pitcher Tanner Bibee elicited 20 whiffs on Saturday against the Twins. It’s the first time Bibee has had 20 whiffs since June 2024. Bibee elicited a 20.4% swinging-strike rate with a 39% ball rate on Friday.

🪙Bibee increased his changeup usage to left-handed hitters (34%) on Saturday, up from 28.6% (2026). That coincided with Bibee throwing fewer curveballs (4%), down from 12% (2026) before Saturday. Bibee’s changeup elicited a 23.1% swinging-strike rate on Saturday, with most of his whiffs coming low and outside from left-handed hitters.

✂️Bibee continued to pump cutters against righties, throwing them 42% of the time on Saturday. That’s up from 34% in 2026 before Friday and 27.2% (2025) against right-handed hitters. Bibee’s cutter added 1-2 inches of downward movement and horizontal sweep on Friday, like a gyro-like slider.

✍️The cutter has been successful for weak contact (76.7 mph average EV) and whiffs. That’s evident by Bibee’s cutter swinging-strike rate (19% on Saturday), though righties have been crushing them (.397 wOBA, .401 xwOBA) before Saturday. Theoretically, Bibee’s cutter movement profile should generate weak contact and whiffs, as a pitch he tends to locate low/away from right-handed hitters.

Hopefully, this is a launching point for Bibee to find more consistency.

Luis Castillo, SP, Mariners

Seattle Mariners’ starting pitcher Luis Castillo generated a season-high 18 whiffs on Saturday, leading to a 21.4% swinging-strike rate with a 30% ball rate against the White Sox. That’s significantly better than Castillo’s career ball rate (35%), yet an 11% swinging-strike rate before Saturday.

⏩Castillo was peppering the four-seamers in the upper parts of the zone, adding 1 inch of induced vertical break. Castillo’s four-seam elicited a 27% swinging-strike rate on Saturday, compared to 11-13% over the past two seasons. At Castillo’s peak, his four-seam generated a 15-16% swinging-strike rate. That’s an optimal approach to repeat.

🛝The slider was located low and below the zone, eliciting a 22.7% swinging-strike rate on Saturday, up from 13.7% in 2026 and 16.4% in his career. Castillo’s slider was thrown 1.3 mph slower, leading to 2 additional inches of downward movement on Saturday.

⏹️Castillo threw his slider in the zone 50% of the time with a 36% chase rate on Saturday. That’s a higher zone rate for the slider than in 2026 (44%) and 2025 (38.8%). However, opposing hitters haven’t been chasing the slider, evidenced by a 26.5% chase rate (2026) and 30.8% (2025).

There have been talks about Castillo and Bryce Miller combining for a start coming soon. After being a pitcher who relied on his stuff, Castillo has interestingly been more of a command pitcher, given his 111 Location+ and 98 Stuff+ in 2026 before Friday.

Trey Yesavage, SP, Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays’ Trey Yesavage has been adjusting his pitch mix in 2026. Yesavage had a 17.2% swinging-strike rate and a 34% ball rate on Saturday against the Angels.

📉Yesavage lowered his four-seam (40%) usage against right-handed hitters, adding more splitters (31%) and sliders (29%). That’s notable because Yesavage may need to rely upon his non-fastballs to find success for whiffs.

🪓Yesavage’s splitter elicited a 25% swinging-strike rate while being thrown in the zone 34% of the time. Meanwhile, Yesavage’s 43% splitter chase rate on Saturday was significantly higher than his chase rate in 2026 (27.3%) and 2025 (44.4%).

🛝Like Yesavage’s splitter, he threw his slider low and below, given his 36% zone rate and 57% chase rate on Saturday. That aligns with Yesavage’s slider swinging-strike rate at 27.3%. Yesavage had a similar slider zone rate, yet opposing hitters hardly chased (22.2% of the time).

Yesavage has been making adjustments in early 2026. That leads to slightly more intrigue, yet he can be inconsistent as a pitcher who relies on stuff (105 Stuff+) than command (96 Location+).

Spencer Strider, SP, Braves

The velocity was up for the Atlanta Braves’ starting pitcher Spencer Strider’s four-seamer (+1.8 mph) and slider (+1.3 mph) on Saturday against the Dodgers. That’s the highest four-seam and slider velocity since 2024.

🆙That led to Strider’s four-seam adding 2 inches of induced vertical break and the slider losing 3 inches of downward movement. Strider’s four-seam was located in the upper parts of the zone to generate whiffs with his above-average 17 inches of IVB.

🛝Strider’s slider was eliciting whiffs low and below the zone, including a few low/inside toward left-handed hitters. His slider elicited a 21.9% swinging-strike rate on Saturday, closer but not quite toward his career average (26% SwK).

If Strider maintains the added velocity to help his four-seam and slider pitch movement profiles shift into the above-average range, we should see better stuff metrics.