Last week England breezed past Pakistan, thanks to the most complete quartet of pace bowlers we’ve seen in a few years. They shared all 20 wickets between them, with the sole over of spin a token set for part-timer Dan Lawrence.

So it might seem a strange time to be writing about England’s lack of a proper spinner. Indeed it’s tempting to think they’ll be just fine with Archer, Robinson, Tongue and Atkinson, plus a few overs from Lawrence, Root, Jacks or whoever.

I think that’s probably a mistake.

A proper spinner adds variety to the attack as well as a wicket-taking threat, and crucially affords the seamers a rest when the ball gets old and the heat oppressive. Can you really see Dan Lawrence, admirable cricketer though he is, spinning England to victory on day five at the SCG? No, neither can I.

If England entertain genuine ambitions to be world number one again, to win World Test Championships, or lift the Ashes, it’s hard to see them succeeding without a genuine Test-class spinner in their ranks.

On the face of it, the cupboard looks pretty bare – though I wonder if they’re looking in the wrong place. More on that shortly.

Why the structure works against them

Part of the problem is structural. English conditions don’t often favour spin, and with the County Championship now pushed to the margins of the season – May and September – the domestic game does even less to develop spinners than it used to. The same argument applies to genuine pace, for what it’s worth. 70mph with a bit of nibble off the seam will do just fine.

Somerset found out what happens if you try to buck the trend. When they prepared pitches to suit their own spinners – Taunton was known as Ciderabad for a spell – they got fined for it. Twice.

So county cricket offers selectors little real evidence of who might succeed at Test level, and they’ve been left guessing. That guesswork culminated in the selection of Shoaib Bashir because Ben Stokes saw three clips of his bowling on TikTok. None of what’s followed is really Bashir’s fault. But the structure that produced that decision isn’t changing any time soon.

The Stokes-shaped hole

The balance of England’s side in a post-Stokes world doesn’t help. A genuine seam-bowling all-rounder batting in the top seven allowed England to field four seamers and still fit in a spinner. With Stokes gone, they’re faced with a choice of four quicks plus part-time spin, or just three and a specialist spinner. A spinner wasn’t needed at Headingley, but it won’t always be that simple.

Unless someone like Sam Curran can make the No.6 slot his own, England may feel unable to pick a proper spinner for a while. It’s hard to see them risking a three-man seam attack anywhere outside the subcontinent.

Jack Leach: the man they’re overlooking

While England search elsewhere, Jack Leach has just delivered another reminder of what he can still do. Last week, he took nine wickets in the match – including 5 for 81 in the second innings – as Somerset beat Essex by eight wickets at Taunton to keep their title challenge alive. He’s taken 22 wickets at 21.9 so far this season. Last year he took 52 at 22.8. The year before, 45, also at 22.8.

Remarkable consistency. But that’s just what Leach does. Unglamorous, but ultimately matchwinning. Yet since he played the last of his 29 Tests at Rawalpindi in 2024, Leach has been continually passed over in favour of Bashir.

So why isn’t he in the side?

It’s worth asking why. Health could theoretically be a factor – Leach has Crohn’s disease and a history of injury – though it would be harsh to hold that against him given he’s playing and performing right now. His batting is a fairer question: he’s no rabbit, averaging in the teens, and he’s a better batter than Bashir, but he’s not in the class of Rehan Ahmed or Liam Patterson-White either. His fielding isn’t the most dynamic. Really, though, it looks like age. Leach turns 35 this year, and England’s selectors clearly see him as the past rather than the future.

But Test cricket isn’t won by potential. It’s won by taking wickets, and Australia – no less ruthless a Test side than England aspire to be – still pick their own best spinner regardless of age. Nathan Lyon is closing in on 39 and remains first choice.

Lyon himself made the point directly during last winter’s Ashes, when he said that despite England’s efforts to fashion Bashir into an English version of himself, Leach was still England’s number one.

“In my eyes, Jack Leach is still their best spinner.” Nathan Lyon

Coming from an opponent with no history of flattering comments about England players, that’s about as clear an outside verdict as you’ll find.

England’s reluctance to recall Leach isn’t really about form. It looks more like a reluctance to admit the Bashir project hasn’t worked, and an unwillingness to go back to a 35-year-old when the long-term plan was supposed to be someone younger. But Jack Leach is the best spinner in England right now, and yet the selectors persist in picking a player who left Somerset because Leach was keeping him out of the team.

If England genuinely want someone to spin them to victory in the fourth innings, the answer isn’t a raw prospect learning on the job. It’s the man who’s already proved he can do it, and who England have spent two years trying to replace instead of simply picking.

With one round of games left in this year’s group stages, the picture is getting clearer. It’s easy to see which teams have clicked and which haven’t, and the difference between the two looks even more stark than usual.

What makes a good franchise team?

Talent matters, but it’s not the whole story – just ask Mumbai Indians, perennially the most star-studded IPL squad and perennial underachievers. The teams that consistently win tend to have three other things going for them: continuity (a settled core who know each other’s games), coaching (calm, consistent leadership rather than panic after every defeat) and clarity (players with clearly defined roles rather than a squad of ill-fitting all-rounders).

Continuity is harder to find in this year’s Hundred, with the draft gone in favour of an auction and heavy roster churn following the ownership changes. But it still matters – and not just from one year to the next. With only eight group games, a side that can’t settle on its best XI has no time to find one before the tournament’s over. London Spirit are the clearest example of what that looks like – they’ve used 17 players so far.

None of this guarantees a title on its own. But teams that get it right tend to outperform their talent level, and it’s a useful lens for judging how this season has actually gone.

The good: Trent Rockets

Trent Rockets have been the story of the group stage, and readers of the pre-season preview shouldn’t be too surprised – they were flagged here as the best-balanced side in the competition, alongside a somewhat regrettable pick of London Spirit for the title. One of those calls has aged much better than the other.

The balance identified back then has shown up exactly as hoped. Rockets aren’t the most powerful batting line-up in the tournament – they rank sixth of eight for sixes hit – but they’re top for fours hit, and third for batting strike rate. There isn’t an obvious hole anywhere in the side, and crucially they have the game awareness to know when power isn’t needed and steady accumulation will do the job just as well.

What’s most striking is how they’ve done it without many standout individual performers. Ben Duckett is the exception, sitting third in the tournament’s run charts with 289 – the next Rockets batter on the list is Finn Allen, all the way down in 14th.

Seven different bowlers have taken between five and seven wickets each, with Craig Overton and Lewis Gregory the joint leaders on seven apiece – only good enough for 10th on the overall wicket-takers’ list. But overall this cohesive bowling unit ranks second in the tournament for economy.

Tom Banton’s season was ended by injury, but Aneurin Donald has slotted straight into the top order and carried his outrageous Blast strike rate into the Hundred with him, including a blistering 40 off 19 balls against Sunrisers Leeds. His one blemish came against MI London on Saturday – his run out was the most village thing I’ve ever seen, including all the actual village cricket I’ve seen.

This is a team winning collectively rather than being carried by two or three individuals, which is about as clean an example of the three Cs in action as you’ll find in this year’s competition. They should finish top of the table and go straight through to the final.

The good: Sunrisers Leeds

Sunrisers set out from the auction to blow teams away rather than out-manoeuvre them. It’s a brand of cricket lifted straight from their IPL sister franchise, and on their own patch it’s worked spectacularly.

They’re miles clear at the top of the tournament for batting strike rate, at 176.5 – the next best, Manchester Super Giants, are all the way back on 156.6. That’s exactly what you’d want from a side built to exploit the flattest pitch in the competition, and Headingley has duly delivered: a perfect home record and the highest total in Hundred history along the way. The flip side is a bowling economy that ranks just sixth of eight, though that’s more a reflection of the surface they play on than anything amiss with the bowling itself.

Mitchell Marsh leads the tournament’s run charts by a distance with 374, and Ryan Rickelton sits fifth with 274 – more than half the team’s runs between them. Harry Brook and Zak Crawley have added serious firepower at three and four. Brydon Carse (11 wickets) and Nathan Ellis (10) sit second and fourth in the tournament standings.

The question is what happens when the plan doesn’t hold. This is a side with real key-man dependency – lose Marsh and Rickelton early, or have an off day from Carse and Ellis, and there isn’t an obvious plan B. Abrar Ahmed, their frontline spinner, has been a disappointment. And the away record backs up the doubt: three games on the road, a win at Birmingham, but defeats to Rockets and MI London, further evidence that this approach hasn’t yet been proven away from Headingley.

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The (sometimes) good: MI London and Manchester Super Giants

MI London were flagged here in the preview as overrated at their pre-season price, on the logic that losing captain Sam Billings and coach Tom Moody – continuity and clarity, gone in one close-season – would prove too disruptive.

Billings, for what it’s worth, is captaining superbly at Rockets. But MI have held enough together to be genuinely good on their day: the Curran brothers, Will Jacks and Nathan Sowter carried over from the Invincibles days, with Rashid Khan and Nic Pooran arriving as excellent additions. They’re fourth for batting strike rate, fourth for bowling economy and second for sixes hit, and Richard Gleeson leads the tournament with 12 wickets. The inconsistency is a worry – losing at home to London Spirit was a low point – but four wins from seven, with a final group game against a dismal Birmingham Phoenix side still to come, should be enough to see them through to the Eliminator.

Manchester Super Giants are also four from seven, carried by an outstanding season from Jos Buttler – fourth on the run charts with 278, and the man who became T20 cricket’s all-time leading run-scorer along the way. Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue have been superb and remarkably hard to get away: Atkinson has nine wickets at an economy of 7.6, Tongue eight at 8.1, and as a team they’re third for bowling economy and second for batting strike rate.

They need a win tomorrow against Sunrisers Leeds to keep their own knockout hopes alive, and with the game at Old Trafford rather than Headingley, they’ll fancy their chances of getting it.

A note on Welsh Fire and Southern Brave

Welsh Fire started brightly but have faded badly, hammered in each of their last two games. Their problem isn’t really strategy so much as personnel – there simply isn’t enough firepower in the batting order beyond the openers, and it’s compounded by a lack of tactical nous and adaptability when things go wrong. The decision to field first at Headingley yesterday was a shocker, as was sending Joe Root in at three when they needed 178 from 76.

Southern Brave set themselves up to win tight games at home on the tournament’s slowest surface. Instead, they’ve lost two tight games there themselves to put themselves out of contention. They do lead the way for bowling economy, but that’s not a surprise given the sluggish Southampton pitch.

The bad: London Spirit

London Spirit have been the biggest disappointment of the season. This is the RCB brains trust – Flower in the dugout, Wilde crunching the numbers, Bobat overseeing both clubs – and so far it hasn’t produced answers.

The James Coles situation sums up the muddle. £390,000 bought Spirit the most expensive player in the auction, and he’s barely had the chance to justify it: 44 runs from 41 balls all season, batting so far down the order that he’s rarely had the opportunity to influence a game, and just 90 deliveries bowled across seven matches for four wickets. It’s both a puzzling buy and a puzzling use of the player they bought.

There have been flashes of what this squad is capable of. Liam Livingstone and Dewald Brevis blasted half-centuries to beat a poor Birmingham Phoenix side, and victory over local rivals MI London at the Oval was a highlight. Livingstone leads the way as Spirit’s top run-scorer with 229, Brevis second on 196 – ninth and 11th respectively in the tournament’s overall charts – and the side sits fourth for batting strike rate. The batting, in other words, is not the main problem.

The bowling is where it’s gone wrong. Spirit are second-bottom of the table for economy, and their leading wicket-takers, Jamie Overton and Adam Milne, have managed just six apiece – Overton’s economy nudging 11. Adam Zampa, signed as the spin spearhead, has been shocking: three wickets at a double-figure economy before losing his place in the XI altogether. For a squad assembled with this much ambition and this much analytical firepower behind it, it’s been a thoroughly underwhelming debut season. Maybe next year.

The bad: Birmingham Phoenix

Birmingham Phoenix look a couple of batters and a couple of bowlers short of a competitive side, and the numbers back that up starkly – second-bottom for batting strike rate, bottom of the entire table for bowling economy.

To be fair, they were dealt a hammer blow before a ball had even been bowled, with Jacob Bethell ruled out through injury. Joe Clarke has done his best to carry the batting since, but he’s had precious little support – Will Smeed was dropped, and nobody else has stepped up. With the ball, Usman Tariq is the one bright spot, troubling batters throughout the competition, but the rest of the attack has been lacklustre: Saqib Mahmood has been particularly poor, going at an economy of almost 12 for just three wickets.

There’s no other way to put it – Phoenix look hapless and rudderless, and a serious rethink is needed before next season.

The ugly: MI London

In his first game back at the Oval as Trent Rockets captain on Saturday, Sam Billings was given an aggressive send-off by Richard Gleeson after his dismissal. Speaking on Sky, he said he felt Gleeson’s on-field conduct had been “a pretty poor showing.”

It wasn’t an isolated incident. There was also the heated exchange between Nicholas Pooran and Liam Livingstone, and Tom Curran continues to be Tom Curran every opportunity he gets.

None of this is really a surprise. Oval Invincibles, before the rebrand, were known in some quarters as the Unbearables – and this is one area of continuity they seem to excel at, despite the name and ownership change.

Betting update

Time to check in on the picks from the pre-season preview. The bad news first: London Spirit, the headline pick at 6/1, have been abject – there’s not much more to say about that bet.

Rockets, the second pick also at 6/1, are a very different story. They’re now even-money favourites to lift the trophy.

Matt Henry, backed each-way at 25/1 in the top bowler markets, hasn’t worked out – he’s nowhere near the top of the wicket-takers’ table with just five scalps.

But the top batter picks have been a success. Marsh and Rickelton, both backed at 16/1, have delivered in spectacular fashion. Marsh is now trading at 1/10 – he’s 84 runs clear at the top of the run charts.

I can’t see an angle in the outright market at current prices, with Rockets already short. But there’s still some value in the top bowler market. Brydon Carse is one wicket behind Gleeson at the top of the standings and looks to be in serious form. I fancy Sunrisers Leeds to make the final, which would give Carse at least one more game than Gleeson. I’ve taken the 9/2 on offer.

I can’t remember a time when England’s red-ball and white-ball teams were firing on all cylinders at the same time.

When I started this Substack 18 months ago, I was still optimistic about what the Test team could achieve, with Stokes and McCullum having had a decent (if rather breathless) first couple of years at the helm. The white-ball teams, on the other hand, were in disarray – a disastrous Champions Trophy culminating in defeat to Afghanistan and the sacking of coach Matthew Mott.

I’m not sure how it’s happened, but the white-ball teams have quietly become pretty good over the past few months. England are ranked second in T20Is, having briefly hit number one with a 4-0 hammering of India. The ODI team has further to go, but they’re moving in the right direction too, with 2-1 wins at home to India and away to Sri Lanka. Harry Brook has built an impressive record as captain, with 17 wins from 20 completed T20Is.

I’m not saying it’s totally fixed. But it’s moving in the right direction.

Test cricket’s turn to be in disarray

Now it’s the Test team that’s misfiring. It started last summer with a drawn series against India that England really should’ve won. Then it went badly wrong against a relatively weak Australia side, and the wheels came off completely against New Zealand last month – after which Stokes quit and McCullum lost the red-ball side of his job.

So here we are, with a new coach and an old captain.

Fleming in, Root back

Having had some time to reflect, I quite like the Fleming appointment.

After Andy Flower turned the job down, Fleming was probably the best choice available. He doesn’t have red-ball coaching experience, but he had huge success with Chennai Super Kings and works with international cricketers day in, day out.

And it’s not as if the guy doesn’t understand Test matches – he played 111 of them, 80 as captain. It’s a big plus that he has a good working relationship with McCullum, too. I think he’s probably the right person to take the best bits of Bazball and temper them with some good old-fashioned common sense.

Joe Root’s reappointment as captain I’m less sure about. I get the logic – there wasn’t really another option. There’s an argument that Root was a decent captain whose tenure was ruined by Covid and a couple of tough tours in bubbles England stood no chance of winning. I can understand that, but I can’t shake the impression that he looked absolutely destroyed by the job by the end.

Maybe under a new coach, with a largely different team, this is a fresh opportunity. A successful return culminating in an Ashes win next summer would be quite the redemption arc. And who doesn’t love one of those?

England announce their squad this week for three Tests against Pakistan. Fleming won’t yet be in post – Marcus Trescothick takes the reins on an interim basis.

The Stokes problem

The biggest selection question is how you replace Stokes the player. Top-class English all-rounders seem to come round about once every fifteen years.

I’m friends online with a group of excellent Indian cricket journalists, and one of their most frequent gripes is the Indian team’s obsession with all-rounders. My response is always that they’re lucky to have enough of them to be obsessing over. What England would give for an Axar Patel, a Nitish Kumar Reddy, or a Washington Sundar right now.

With Stokes gone, England need someone who can bat in the top seven and act as a fifth bowler, whether spin or seam. The cupboard isn’t exactly replete with options, but there are a few names worth discussing here.

Rehan Ahmed made five centuries in the County Championship last year. He’s not the finished article as a red-ball bowler, but he never will be unless he gets the experience. My doubt is whether England will be willing to go into a big series with their only spinner being a leggie.

Sam Curran is a closer like-for-like replacement – an adaptable batter who can fill a fourth-seamer role. But he barely plays red-ball cricket anymore: two games for Surrey this year, four last year. He last played a Test in 2021, and currently has a batting average south of 25 and a bowling average north of 35. Are they really going back to him?

Which brings me to the most interesting candidate. If you’d told me at the start of the season that Craig Overton would be in contention to replace Ben Stokes in the Test side, I’d have suggested you get psychiatric help. But he’s apparently made some technical changes with the bat to stop falling over, and it’s worked wonders – he averages 46 this season, with three hundreds, and has taken 33 wickets at 19.5. Not to mention the purple patch he’s going through in white ball cricket too.

If you’re picking an all-rounder on this season’s numbers alone, Overton is your man.

There’s also the question of whether Jacob Bethell will be fit, having sustained a knee injury during the India ODI series. If he’s not available, someone needs to take his place at three. The last time England called on their spare batters, Jordan Cox and James Rew were drafted in. I imagine Cox is the one, but he doesn’t strike me as a natural number three, which might mean a re-jigged batting order.

What’s coming

Pakistan should be a stern test. They’ll be fit and red-ball ready following their trip to the West Indies, unlike England’s players, most of whom are currently playing in the Hundred. It doesn’t get any easier from there either, with South Africa this winter followed by a potential banana skin in Bangladesh. Then there’s the one-off 150th-anniversary Test at the MCG – given it’s a pink-ball game, I think we can safely write that one off already.

It’s going to be a tough task for Fleming and Root to get their house in order before next summer’s Ashes. Failure there would surely – finally – cost Rob Key his job.

I get that the Hundred isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. In fact, people love to hate it. I can’t help but think that’s a bit curmudgeonly – the Hundred is great fun. Name me another tournament that would promote itself by getting Sophie Munro, Phil Salt and Liv Barnes to recreate the Abbey Road album cover with Aleksandr the meerkat?

I wonder if the people who are vocal in their distaste for it are really saying they disagree with the way English cricket is run more widely. And even the most traditional of traditionalists must be happy that the money generated from the franchise sales will prop up “proper cricket” for a couple of decades.

Love it or loathe it, if you want to watch cricket, it’s going to be your staple diet for the next few weeks, so you might as well enjoy it.

There’s plenty of added spice this year too, as it’s the first season since shares in the eight teams were sold to private investors – several of the new owners also have stakes in IPL franchises, and it shows. Out goes the old draft system with its fixed salary tiers; in comes an open auction, IPL-style, held back in March. Overseas quotas rise from three to four per squad, and salaries have jumped significantly – the men’s pot is up 45% to £2.05m per team. Multi-year deals are also allowed for the first time. All of which means a lot more turnover than usual, and a lot more IPL-style money and thinking driving selection.

There’s been significant churn in the team rosters too, which makes it a fascinating puzzle to solve. I’m not going to run through all the teams, but here are some things which stand out to me, and some betting angles to consider.

Most likely winners

London Spirit have been perennial underachievers in the men’s competition, but there are reasons to believe this new look side can turn things around this year under one of the all-time great coaches in Andy Flower.

There’s power aplenty in the batting, with young South African star Luhan-Dre Pretorius set to open alongside Jonny Bairstow. Liam Livingstone, Dewald Brevis and big-money signing James Coles follow. Somerset and future England star James Rew might not even make the XI.

Spirit are blessed in the bowling department too, with Adam Zampa and Mason Crane making up four genuine spin options when added to the aforementioned Livingstone and Coles. Jamie Overton, Adam Milne, David Willey and Tymal Mills make up the pace attack.

The ownership picture explains a lot of this ambition. Spirit sold a 49% stake for around £295m – the biggest single investment of any Hundred team – to a consortium including Times of India Group boss Satyan Gajwani. That same group has since become part of the new ownership at Royal Challengers Bengaluru, who’ve won the last two IPLs under Flower.

London Spirit’s director of cricket, Mo Bobat, holds the identical role at RCB, and it’s that shared ownership pulling talent across: RCB Head Analyst Freddie Wilde has now moved from Oval to Spirit too, reprising the same coach-analyst axis that won RCB the title. That’s big, and the sort of news which isn’t likely to be factored into prices.

It’s hard to pick holes in this squad, and with Flower taking the reins they look a standout bet at 6/1.

Most overrated

It’s pretty much my first rule of betting on franchise cricket – Mumbai Indians and their namesakes in other tournaments are almost always too short. And it holds true here, with MI London – formerly Oval Invincibles, renamed after the Ambani family (also owners of Mumbai Indians in the IPL) bought a 49% stake for around £60m – looking questionable favourites.

They’re priced on the name, and in this instance, priced on the form of the old Oval Invincibles, who won the last three titles. But there have been significant changes afoot, most significantly the departure of both captain Sam Billings and coach Tom Moody. Oval’s success has been built on continuity, clarity and leadership, and those things have been severely disrupted.

Key players remain however – the Curran brothers, Will Jacks, Jason Roy and impressive leg spinner Nathan Sowter. James Vince, Nic Pooran and Rashid Khan all look valuable additions.

I’m not saying they can’t win, but Kieron Pollard doesn’t exactly scream tactical acumen as a coach, and 3/1 is a horrible price. Expect them to win plenty of games, but I’m happy to look elsewhere for the title winner.

Scariest top three

Mitch Marsh. Ryan Rickleton. Harry Brook. Comfortably the scariest top three in the tournament. Sunrisers Leeds are staying true to the philosophy of their Hyderabad namesake and trying to blast the opposition off the park. Beyond those three however, there’s a drop off in quality. Zak Crawley and Dan Lawrence aren’t quite elite level and we could see a few low totals when the big three don’t fire.

And very much like Hyderabad, the big question is whether they have the bowling depth to cope when things get tough. Nathan Ellis, Brydon Carse and Reece Topley all have the potential to be expensive, so much will depend on mystery spinner Abrar Ahmed, who provides the tweak alongside Benny Howell.

Expect the Headingley curator to play to their strengths with some flat pitches. On a personal level I’d love to see Andrew Flintoff have some success as a coach, but the bowling is too much of a concern for me to consider them for the win.

Best balance

Trent Rockets seem to have all the bases covered. Aggressive top three? Finn Allen, Ben Duckett and Tom Banton. Middle order finisher? Best in the business Tim David. Experienced captain? Sam Billings won the last three editions with the Invincibles. Elite level pace and swing? Matt Henry and Mohammed Amir. Spin? Kiwi ace Mitchell Santner.

Add in reliable quick bowling and lower order rescue acts courtesy of Craig Overton, and the all-round unconventional abilities of Dan Mousley and you have an extremely well-balanced team. I expect them to go deep.

To give you an idea of the strength in depth they possess, I can’t currently work out how Aneurin Donald, who just averaged north of 40 at a strike rate of 230 in the Blast, gets into the XI. Rockets are my second choice for the win, also priced at 6/1.

Player markets

A bit of a lottery this year with so much churn, but a couple of speculative ones stand out.

Matt Henry is one of the best new ball bowlers in the world, and Rockets picking him up for £75,000 may be the shrewdest move by any team in the auction. The heatwave has to break at some point, which may mean the pitches have a little more juice. I have to get involved at 25/1, especially with four places available for an each-way bet.

Batting-wise I’m going to have a small bet on Sunrisers openers Marsh and Rickleton, both 16/1. They’re class acts, and it’s a wise move to back openers for top bat in this, the shortest of formats.

Finally I can’t resist a small chunk of the 18/1 available for a London Spirit-Trent Rockets final – it’s always worth making sure you bank a decent profit on the rare occasions you call everything right, and those two look the standout teams to me.

Four months ago, India were the best T20 side on the planet. They’d just retained the World Cup on home soil, beating New Zealand by 96 runs in a dominant final at Ahmedabad. Captain Suryakumar Yadav lifted the trophy in front of a packed Narendra Modi Stadium.

On Tuesday evening at Trent Bridge, England bowled them out for 76. It was India’s second-lowest T20I total in their history, their heaviest defeat by runs ever, and their fourth loss in as many completed matches since the World Cup. They must now win both remaining matches just to avoid a second successive bilateral T20 series defeat.

So what on earth has happened?

The obvious answer: they’re missing their best players

Let’s start with the absences.

Jasprit Bumrah has been rested for the entire UK tour, with the BCCI citing workload management ahead of the 2027 ODI World Cup. He carried a niggle from the World Cup final into the IPL, managed just four wickets in 13 matches for Mumbai Indians, and was bowling at noticeably reduced pace in the early weeks of the tournament. Wisden asked openly whether he should have been playing at all.

Hardik Pandya isn’t here either. He’s rehabbing a quad injury and has been unavailable since the IPL, where he captained a Mumbai Indians side that won just four games.

Suryakumar Yadav was stripped of the captaincy within two months of winning the World Cup, and dropped from the squad. His World Cup form had been modest by his standards – 242 runs at a strike rate of 136.72 – and his IPL form was worse still, just 270 runs at a strike rate of 147.54 for a struggling Mumbai Indians side. Shreyas Iyer has taken over.

Sanju Samson was Player of the Tournament at the World Cup in March, but scores of 5, 0 and 1 in Ireland and England were enough to see him left out of the XI in favour of 15-year-old debutant Vaibhav Sooryavanshi. A run of three low scores isn’t unusual for a T20 opener, but it seems India were desperate to have a look at the wunderkind. Either way, Samson has now been omitted for the Zimbabwe tour which starts right after this one finishes, with no explanation offered.

So that’s the premier fast bowler, the most experienced all-rounder, the World Cup-winning captain, and the Player of the Tournament, all gone.

The deeper answer: fatigue

But the absences only tell part of the story. The players who are here have barely stopped since February.

Arshdeep Singh finished the IPL with 14 wickets in 14 games at an economy of 10.20, having taken 21 the previous season. He was meant to be leading the attack, but ended up leaking runs while his team endured a catastrophic slump in the second half of the season. Punjab’s head of sports science pointed to potential physical issues behind his form.

Varun Chakravarthy – joint-highest wicket-taker at the World Cup – endured a poor IPL too, taking just 11 wickets and going at a higher economy rate than in any season so far (bar his debut in 2019 where he played just one game). He picked up a foot injury that ruled him out of Ireland, and has taken just one wicket in seven overs in England so far.

There’s a mental side to this too. These are the biggest stars of the world’s most watched cricket league. The pressure is intense, and a dip in form after it finishes is understandable. By the time Ireland came around – not quite four weeks after the IPL final – this was a team that had been playing elite cricket at relentless intensity for five months.

The structural answer: the IPL is making India one-dimensional

Shubman Gill, speaking at the IPL captains’ meeting in March, said the Impact Player rule is “making the game more one-dimensional and taking a little bit of the skill out of the game.” Rohit Sharma, Hardik and Axar Patel have all said similar things. Mohammed Siraj has directly blamed the rule for the trend of higher and higher scores in every IPL season.

Combined with the small grounds and flat pitches we see in the IPL, the result is an environment where 200 is now considered a minimum, batters are expected to swing hard from ball one, and the kind of situational intelligence that wins matches in different conditions – rotating strike, respecting good balls, adapting to slower surfaces – simply isn’t required.

The rule has also undermined the development of all-rounders. The absence of a genuine Hardik replacement has been painfully obvious on this tour. India need someone who can bowl into seaming conditions, take the pace off, and also bat with intelligence under pressure. The current squad doesn’t really have one.

The team selection itself hasn’t helped either. India’s batting order now features six left-handers in the top seven, with only captain Shreyas Iyer breaking up the sequence. This makes it easier for the opposition bowlers, who rarely have to deal with a right-hand/left-hand partnership disrupting their lines, not to mention that Adil Rashid has the second-best economy of any bowler in the world against lefties over the past couple of years.

In the end Shivam Dube, one of India’s most destructive hitters, was held back to number eight – below right-handed Harshit Rana – before failing again, beaten by the pace and bounce of Josh Tongue.

What happens when you take this team to Belfast and Trent Bridge? The pitches are slower, the ball swings more (and for longer), and the square boundaries are bigger. Swinging from ball one against Jofra Archer and Josh Tongue at pace, in English conditions, is a very different proposition to launching over long-on at the Wankhede.

In Belfast, India went 48 deliveries without a boundary off the bat between the fifth and 13th overs. The ball wasn’t coming onto the bat in the way it does in the IPL. India’s batters had spent five months in an environment where this never happens – and they had no answer for it.

Ryan ten Doeschate, India’s assistant coach, put his hands up after Ireland. “The guys really know how to play in India,” he said. “This is a good lesson in the fact that we’re going to have to adapt and play slightly differently when we go to different countries.” Gambhir said something similar after Trent Bridge: when everyone in a batting line-up is playing high risk, high reward, sometimes these things happen. The experienced players need to read situations better.

That’s a diplomatic way of saying the approach doesn’t travel.

Jofra Archer made the same point rather more bluntly. Asked how his approach changed bowling to Indian batters he’d faced all IPL, he said: “I think it goes back to normal here. At the IPL, sometimes 200 isn’t safe. Here, I feel your margin for error is a little bit bigger.”

What happens now?

There are two matches left – Bristol tonight and then Southampton – and India need to win both to avoid a second consecutive series defeat. On the evidence of the last two weeks, that looks unlikely.

The Zimbabwe squad, announced earlier this week, underlines how deep the reset goes. Arshdeep Singh, Axar Patel, Harshit Rana, Washington Sundar and Ravi Bishnoi have all been rested. Four players receive their maiden T20I call-ups. Samson has been left out too, with the BCCI offering no public explanation. It is the kind of experimental squad you’d normally send to Zimbabwe without a second thought.

But India lost to Ireland. And Zimbabwe, like Ireland, will offer conditions that bear little resemblance to India. After the last two weeks, that series is no longer the formality it once would’ve been.

India are building toward the 2027 ODI World Cup, and the BCCI is clearly in transition mode – new captain, younger players being blooded, Bumrah and Hardik preserved for the next trophy push. Gambhir’s point about a reset is fair up to a point. But the reset looks increasingly like it was started too soon, with too little preparation time, in demanding overseas conditions.

The deeper problem – the IPL producing batters conditioned to attack regardless of conditions, on surfaces that bear no resemblance to what they’ll face elsewhere in the world – isn’t going away. The Impact Player rule stays until at least 2027. The grounds remain small, and the pitches flat.

India’s own players are telling anyone who will listen that the IPL is making the game one-dimensional. The last two weeks suggest they might be right.

The retirement of Ben Stokes dominated the cricketing conversation this week, and I joined Benny and Mayank on The Last Wicket to unpick it properly – links to listen are below.

We covered a lot of ground – here are some of the things I found myself coming back to.

The nightclub incident

I’ll be honest – I find the whole curfew thing a bit ridiculous. This was two grown men going for a drink after a Test win, with ten days until the next match. Hardly scandalous. No laws were broken, and Stokes wasn’t even directly involved in the altercation.

I find it hard to defend the ECB’s response. Dropping Stokes for a match is one thing, refusing to publicly back your own captain is another. I suspect that, more than anything else, is what pushed him over the edge.

There’s a broader question here about what we actually expect from professional cricketers. Ian Botham was quick to weigh in, which took some nerve given his own playing days. There was a good piece by Greg Chappell on Cricinfo making the point that a cricketer’s contract is an agreement to perform on the field – not a vow of abstinence. I’m inclined to agree. Nobody in Australia seemed to bat an eyelid when Travis Head was visibly the worse for wear on various occasions. The scrutiny English players face feels disproportionate – and frankly a bit Victorian.

The player

Stokes is one of those cricketers – like Flintoff before him – where the numbers don’t really tell you anything. His batting and bowling averages are fine. They don’t capture what it felt like to watch him at Headingley in 2019, or at Cape Town in 2016, or his hundred against peak Mitchell Johnson at Perth in 2013. If you needed someone to bat or bowl for your life, he’d be top of the list.

The balance he brought to England’s side will be exceptionally hard to replace. The second Test made that obvious – without him, England didn’t feel able to pick a specialist spinner because that would have left them with only three seamers. Sam Curran is probably the closest like-for-like option. Rehan Ahmed offers a different route – a spinner who can bat, more in the Jadeja/Washington mould.

The captain

His record was the fifth-best win/loss ratio of any England Test captain. His man-management was exceptional – Anderson and Broad, neither of them easy to please, spoke about him in glowing terms. And he showed more than once that he could engineer a win from nowhere: Rawalpindi in 2022 remains for me the perfect encapsulation of Bazball done right – aggressive scoring, a sporting declaration, and a herculean bowling effort in fading light.

The tragedy is that it ended the way it did. A captain who inspired genuine belief turned his final Test innings into a spectacle that undermined everything he’d built, and quite possibly leaves the team in a worse state than when he took over.

Listen to the episode

Spotify and YouTube links for the episode are below, but it’s also available on all good podcast platforms.

In the end, the Bazball project didn’t wind down – it imploded. And what we saw was an unexpected and unbecoming end to the career of an England great.

Ben Stokes has looked knackered this summer. Four years of England captaincy seems to age you a decade – just ask Joe Root. It’s hard not to think the last few weeks pushed him over the edge: the nightclub incident, the conspicuous lack of public backing from his bosses, the rumours of differences with McCullum over the winter. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire.

The retirement announcement came mid-innings. Stokes brought himself on to bowl and took a wicket immediately. Who writes his scripts, we were all asking. But then the drama turned to farce.

He promoted himself to open, charged down the pitch first ball and reverse-swept his second. In the end he was caught by Daryl Mitchell for 30 off 20 balls. Are you not entertained?

As an England fan I can forgive Stokes almost anything. This is the man who gave us the 2019 World Cup final. The 2019 Headingley Test. The 2022 T20 World Cup. But this was unedifying in the extreme.

In trying to go out in a blaze of glory, he turned a Test match into an exhibition game. It cemented the impression that under Stokes and McCullum, England are a deeply unserious cricket team – playing Test cricket like a Lashings charity match. To sacrifice a series decider in favour of spectacle was disrespectful to his opponents and, frankly, to his own team.

Yes, if he’d made 150 off 100 balls to win the game, it would have been the most memorable retirement in history. But the pitch made that virtually impossible. Daryl Mitchell had shown exactly what was required earlier in the day: hour after hour of pure obduracy and application, repeatedly getting hit on the fingers, hit on the helmet, playing through the pain. A century off 241 balls. There was nothing swashbuckling about it – and that was the point. That was the blueprint.

I think I can speak for most England fans when I say we’d rather Stokes had hit a measured 50 from number seven to help seal a series win.

Brook’s innings was horrid. If that’s the next captain, Lord help us – he’s got Stokes’ God complex without the cricket brain to justify it. And spare a thought for Emilio Gay, shuffled down the order on a whim in only his third Test. He could be forgiven for thinking he’d joined the circus rather than his national cricket team.

It speaks volumes that Root and Stokes felt the need to defend the approach afterwards. Apparently they were trying to “cause chaos,” score “easier” runs against the new ball, and were happy they’d chipped away at the target. Well, they certainly caused chaos. But if throwing away four wickets when the opposition is down to two and a half bowlers is a source of satisfaction, I’m glad this experiment is ending. The whole thing felt like a collective two fingers to someone – I’m looking at you Rob Key – and it’s hard not to see it that way.

England threw away a chance to win a Test match in the name of ego and entertainment. In many ways a fitting epitaph for the Bazball era.

But not for Stokes, who deserved better than this.

Where next?

The increasing white-ball domination of the English summer buys some time – the next Test isn’t until the second half of August against Pakistan.

But the captaincy cupboard looks bare. For all his talent, Brook has yet to show he’s capable of taking Test cricket seriously. Going back to Root looks inadvisable – he left the role for a reason, and England need his runs more than ever. But who else? Ben Duckett is the next most senior player, but given the events of the Noosa trip over the winter, it would feel like a continuation of the circus. Ollie Pope would’ve been under consideration, had he not been cast into the wilderness.

Perhaps they could bring in an experienced captain from the County Championship. Haseeb Hameed had been talked about as a potential replacement for Zak Crawley before they settled on Emilio Gay, and he captained Notts to the title last year. I would also point out that Jonny Bairstow is captaining Yorkshire right now, and would probably be responsive if England wanted him back.

And I’d be surprised if a new captain is all that’s needed. Surely the positions of McCullum and Key are now untenable. We might see full regime change, though that’s unlikely to be completed in the next six weeks.

Then there’s the hole left by Stokes the player. The previous Test match showed how England struggle to balance the side without Stokes’ bowling. In the end they opted against a specialist spinner, with Root and Bethell sending down a few overs alongside an all-pace attack. Could Rehan Ahmed have a part to play, as a leg-spinner who can bat in the lower middle order? Another contender would be Sam Curran, though he barely plays any red-ball cricket for Surrey nowadays.

Stokes finishes with 7,273 Test runs at 34.5, and 252 wickets at 31.0. This includes 14 centuries and six five-wicket hauls. Only him and the great Jacques Kallis have breached 250 wickets and 7,000 runs. But like Andrew Flintoff, his predecessor as England’s talismanic all-rounder, it’s impossible to capture his impact in numbers.

Thanks for the memories, Ben. I’m sorry it had to end like this.

Plenty of English supporters and media pundits were calling for heads to roll after England’s calamitous Ashes tour. I can understand their point, but I always felt regime change could do more harm than good at this stage.

The men at the top have clung onto their jobs, but seven of the playing squad from the winter are absent in England’s 15-man squad for the first Test of the summer, announced yesterday.

The fast-bowling stocks are somewhat depleted. Jofra Archer is unavailable, set to be rested after his stint with Rajasthan Royals. Brydon Carse injured his hand playing for Sunrisers Hyderabad. Mark Wood may or may not try to battle his way back from yet another injury, while Chris Woakes has retired from Test cricket.

Batting-wise, Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope have been dropped, while there’s also no room for Will Jacks after his winter as a makeshift front-line spinner. I’d expect him to be considered for the tour of Bangladesh next February.

It’s also worth noting that England have a new national selector in Australian Marcus North, who replaces Luke Wright.

Here are the main talking points from the squad and my view on how the XI might look come 4 June.

The Zak Crawley era is over

Crawley’s omission is hardly a surprise given he averaged 27 down under this winter, and is averaging sub-20 in ten innings for Kent so far this season. Yet so reluctant have England been to dispense with his services, there was still part of me which felt he might sneak into the squad. He’s been given 64 Tests and averages a mediocre 31, and I don’t think I’m alone in wondering if he was in possession of some compromising photos of Rob Key.

You’ll be hard pushed to find an England fan who’s disappointed with the decision, though Key and a few others might miss their golf buddy.

Key confirmed yesterday that Emilio Gay, who’s averaging 92 for Durham including three centuries in eight innings, will open with Ben Duckett. Given Marcus North was formerly Director of Cricket at Durham, I assume he knows Gay’s game well and had a big hand in that decision.

The other candidate was Somerset’s James Rew, who has 12 first class hundreds at the age of 22. He started the season strongly, but has four single figure scores in his last four innings. He usually bats in the middle order, but (perhaps in light of his Test prospects) opened in Somerset’s last game, a defeat to Glamorgan. He’s been included in the squad as the spare batter, and wicketkeeping cover for Jamie Smith.

Ollie Robinson returns

We might never know the exact reasons for Ollie Robinson’s two-year exile, but it appears that a combination of factors soured the relationship between him and England’s management.

Fitness concerns definitely played a part, with a lack of conditioning blamed for persistent back spasms. By the end of his last run in the side, he was barely able to bowl 75mph, which prompted the now infamous “nude nuts” comment from Matthew Hayden (i.e. balls with nothing on them).

A series of podcasts with his partner which revealed plenty of backroom details from the England set-up was probably the final straw.

But after two years in the wilderness, Robinson now returns to the squad. Brendon McCullum made contact with the Sussex captain at the start of the county season to let him know he was still in the picture

His county form has been decent this year, with 17 wickets at 26 so far. And despite his fall from grace, Robinson’s Test numbers remain exceptional, with 76 wickets at 22.9 in his 20 games. An unbeaten century from number ten against Surrey will hardly have hindered his cause.

And it may be that another of Hayden’s comments about Robinson – that he had a “mouth from the south” was seen as a positive by England. England’s attack could be said to lack a bit of combative spirit – Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue are wonderful prospects, but they’re not exactly Dale Steyn or Mitchell Johnson in the intimidation stakes. Perhaps Robinson’s mouth has worked in his favour on this occasion.

I expect him to make the XI ahead of the two other pacers included in the squad, the uncapped Sonny Baker and Matthew Fisher, who played one test in the West Indies in 2022.

Spin remains a puzzle

After a winter warming the bench, and a move from Somerset to Derbyshire, Shoaib Bashir’s inclusion wasn’t on my radar.

Plucked from obscurity because his high release point made him suited to bowling in Australia, I’d assumed that his non-selection in all five Ashes Tests spelled the end of his England career, at least for now. But 14 wickets for Derbyshire is a reasonable early-season return for a spinner, and his five-fer against Northants may have persuaded the selectors to keep him around the group.

I’d be surprised if he played ahead of Rehan Ahmed, however. Having become the youngest man to play Test cricket for England when selected as an 18yo for the 2022 tour of Pakistan, Rehan has matured into a fine cricketer, and fully deserves his chance.

In addition to his leg-spin, he’s a proper red-ball batter too, and made five centuries while averaging 50 in helping Leicestershire win division two of the championship last year.

I had wondered whether England would be reluctant to go into a Test with their only spinner being a leggie. But England under McCullum rarely shy away from the aggressive option, and I like the look of the batting order with him at eight and Gus Atkinson at nine. You could even make a case for him batting higher, with Ben Stokes dropping down the order.

Likely XI for the first test

1. Ben Duckett

2. Emilio Gay

3. Jacob Bethell

4. Joe Root

5. Harry Brook

6. Ben Stokes (c)

7. Jamie Smith (wk)

8. Rehan Ahmed

9. Gus Atkinson

10. Ollie Robinson

11. Josh Tongue

I was on The Last Wicket podcast recently and was asked a simple question: what are you actually looking for when you bet on cricket?

It sounds obvious, but most people get it wrong.

Betting isn’t really about picking winners. It’s about price. You’re trying to identify when the odds don’t reflect the true probability of something happening.

That’s it.

Where people struggle is they focus on outcomes. They remember winners, regret losers, and judge decisions based on what happened rather than whether the price was right. But you can be wrong and still make a good decision, just as easily as you can be right for the wrong reasons.

The job is to be right about the odds, not the result.

That was the starting point for the episode, and from there the conversation with Benny and Mayank ranged pretty widely.

We got into how I actually go about finding an edge in cricket – where I start (usually with venue and conditions), how much weight I put on match-ups, and why I tend to look beyond the headline markets. Things like powerplay runs, sixes, and tournament markets can often be more interesting than simply picking a winner.

We also talked about the need to be selective and disciplined, and not bringing emotion to the table.

The discussion then broadened out into the scale of the betting market itself – particularly in cricket, where the numbers involved are enormous – and some of the implications that come with that. In regulated markets it’s one thing; elsewhere it’s a very different story, and that’s where you start to run into questions around integrity, transparency, and how the game protects itself.

YouTube and Spotify links are below, but it’s also available on all good podcast platforms.

We’ve seen plenty of absorbing games and some pretty insane moments so far. The IPL is one of my favourite events of the year – it seemingly never fails to deliver.

The big theme so far is that batting has gone up another level again – to the point where you now need to obliterate from ball one to win consistently. The top four teams at halfway are also the top four by number of sixes struck, and that’s not a coincidence.

Even as recently as last year, there was room for a slightly more traditional approach, with a more measured start and a fast finish if you’ve got wickets in hand. This is the kind of approach we often see from Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings. Last year GT got to the playoffs, finishing third in the table.

This year it seems you can’t win with that method. GT sit fifth, with four wins from eight and a negative net run rate. CSK are sixth with just three wins.

You now need an ultra-aggressive top three, spearheaded by an opener like Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, Priyansh Arya, or Abishek Sharma. All three are striking well in excess of 200.

I’m kind of sad about this, because I’d rather watch a lower scoring thriller than bowlers being reduced to cannon fodder. Case in point, the most entertaining game so far – if not the highest quality – was definitely Lucknow Super Giants vs. Kolkata Knight Riders, with 155 runs apiece.

The other thing I think is different this year is that the gap between the good teams and the bad teams looks wider. LSG and KKR have been absolutely hopeless, and somewhat surprisingly so have Mumbai Indians. They always seem to finish the season well, but they’ve given their rivals one hell of a head start.

Before the tournament I was convinced Punjab Kings would win it and I still think they will, despite losing their first game today. They’ve been outstanding and the record chase against Delhi Capitals was something else.

Let’s have a quick run through the teams and what’s stood out.

Punjab Kings – 13 points from eight games

A blistering first half, with the batting unit hitting an astonishing 101 sixes in seven innings so far. They’re arguably unlucky not to be seven from eight, with an early washout denying them the chance to beat KKR, having had them 25/2 in the first innings when the rain came.

They’ve been blessedly injury-free, with a settled and strong line up, and until they made two changes for the defeat against Rajasthan today, had used the same 12 players in every game.

The top order has fired, with openers Priyansh Arya and Prabhsimran Singh picking up where they left off last year. Arya has 283 runs in seven innings at a strike rate of 250, while Prabhsimran has 346 at 179. This has led to some pretty ridiculous powerplay numbers, scoring at more than two runs per ball and only losing six wickets.

I must admit to some doubts over Cooper Connolly, but he’s been a find at three, with 270 runs striking at 169, and ever-reliable captain Shreyas Iyer has 309 at 175. The middle order has barely been called upon, but 62 off 22 from Marcus Stoinis today showed the depth is there if required.

If Punjab have a weakness it’s in their bowling. Wickets have been shared around, but three of their four main quicks have conceded more than 10 an over, with Xavier Bartlett most expensive at 11.6. Arshdeep Singh has been disappointing so far, leaking runs in the powerplay and at the death.

Overall Ricky Ponting has created a well-drilled unit and it’s almost impossible to see them finishing outside the top four. I backed them at 8/1 pre-tournament, along with a bet on them to hit most sixes at 9/2. I’m happy with how things are going so far, though I do have a creeping concern that their bowling attack isn’t quite championship-winning quality.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru – 12 points from eight games

Just two defeats in eight for RCB as they seek to defend their maiden title. Mr Reliable Virat Kohli sits 4th in the Orange Cap race with 351 runs, though he’s drawn a little criticism for his slow strike rate on occasion, notably his 50 from 38 balls against MI . Each of his teammates who scored more than ten runs struck at over 200 that day. Is the ‘anchor’ role dead in modern T20 cricket?

There was no shame in the defeat to Rajasthan given Sooryavanshi effectively broke what looked like a challenging enough chase with his onslaught of 78 off 26. But the loss to Delhi Capitals was a surprise – RCB’s batting failed for the only time in the tournament and the target of 176 looked significantly below par.

They certainly avenged the defeat yesterday though, reducing Delhi to 8/6 in the powerplay before bowling them out for 75.

Rajat Patidar has struck at more than 200 across the tournament, while Tim David has been dependent in the finisher role. The agricultural Phil Salt has been hit or miss as ever, but he’s currently out injured, which has created an opportunity for Jacob Bethell at the top of the order.

Bowling-wise the return of Josh Hazlewood in place of Jacob Duffy has been a huge plus, and he’s gone at fewer than eight an over in his five games so far. The star has been Bhuveneshwar Kumar with 14 wickets at an economy of 7.6. They’re the most formidable opening pair in the tournament, as they showed yesterday when they completely dismantled DC in the first four overs.

Spinners Krunal Pandya and Suyash Sharma have been consistently economical too.

A slight concern is that yesterday was their final game at the Chinnaswamy Stadium, with their two remaining home games taking place in Raipur. Overall though, this looks like a team with very few weaknesses. They almost certainly have enough quality to finish top four, and are still odds on for a top two berth.

Rajasthan Royals – 12 points from nine games

I’m a little surprised to see the Royals in the play-off slots. The top order batting has been electrifying as expected, led by 15-year-old Sooryavanshi, who’s scored 400 runs striking at 240, including a hundred in defeat against SRH. He’s the fastest ever to 400 runs in an IPL season, by an absolute mile. He’s been ably supported by opening partner Yashasvi Jaiswal and number three Dhruv Jurel.

But it’s after that the problems start. The middle order has been short of runs and confidence, and there’s a lack of depth with Jofra Archer batting number eight. Shimron Hetmyer has just 72 runs in six innings, and captain Riyan Parag just 117 in nine. There’s a sense that if you can survive the blitz up top, you can roll this line-up for a lowish total.

What’s been surprisingly good, however, is the bowling. Jofra Archer has been outstanding, and seems to have the knack of picking up wickets in his first over (three with his very first ball). It’s good to see Test match lines and lengths working in this bat-dominated tournament. Nandre Burger has been decent too, despite an expensive outing today, while the spinners have exerted significant control in the middle overs. RR do rank third-worst for economy at the death though, and that’s an area for improvement.

They’ll be extremely pleased with the first half, and having defeated Punjab Kings today they’ll be confident of making the playoffs. But it’s a somewhat concerning that almost two-thirds of their runs have been scored by the top three, and their batting depth remains an issue.

Sunrisers Hyderabad – 10 points from eight games

I’d marked down SRH as a one-dimensional unit before the season, and they started with three defeats from five, including an abject performance against LSG. But three wins on the bounce since then sees them fourth in the table.

Batting is obviously their strength, with Abishek leading way having scored 380 runs at a strike rate of 212. Heinrich Klaasen and Ishan Kishan have also been prolific. SRH have scored at 10.6 runs per over in the powerplay, sitting behind only PBKs and RR. They’ve managed this while carrying an out-of-form Travis Head too – he’s made just 186 runs in eight innings, striking at 143.

I’d thought that bowling would be this team’s Achilles heel, but it’s been better than I expected, with Eshan Malinga sharing the lead for the Purple Cap with 14 scalps. The return of Pat Cummins is a huge positive – he returned for the defeat of RR and took 1 for 27 in his four overs, a match-winning economy rate in a high-scoring game.

Where they’ve been really strong is death bowling – an economy rate of 8.3 in overs 17-20 is outstanding given the next best team have conceded 10.1 an over during this phase of the game.

If Cummins stays fit and Head finds some form, there’s no reason they can’t make the playoffs.

Gujarat Titans – 8 points from eight games

Four wins and four defeats for GT, and it’s impossible not to wonder if they’ve been left behind somewhat in their style of play. They’re still happy to prioritise keeping wickets in hand over rapid scoring in the powerplay, scoring at a modest 9.2 an over in the first six, but only losing seven wickets in the process. Somewhat concerningly they’re joint bottom (along with LSG) for six-hitting, clearing the ropes fewer than seven times a game on average.

Keeping wickets in hand makes sense, however, when you look at their reliance on the top three of Sai Sudharsan, Jos Buttler and Shubman Gill. They’ve scored almost 70% of the team’s runs so far, at relatively modest strike rates. The middle order has been a weakness, with Rahul Tewatia notably quiet in his usual finisher role.

With the ball, we’ve seen a welcome return to form from Rashid Khan, who’s regained some control and is only conceding 8.8 an over so far. Mohammed Siraj and Kagiso Rabada have been reliable in the powerplay, and GT rank second for economy in that phase, conceding just 8.7 an over. The death is a problem though, with GT’s bowlers going at 11.9. Only bottom of the table LSG are more expensive.

A tough run of fixtures awaits, with their next four games against the current top four sides. They might need at least two wins from those four if they’re to make the playoffs for the second year in a row.

Chennai Super Kings – 6 points from eight games

Flashes of life for CSK so far this year with three wins already (they managed four in 2025 on their way to finishing bottom). But they’ve only beaten teams below them in the table, and have struggled against the better sides.

Decent returns from big signing Sanju Samson, who’s clocked up 304 runs at an average north of 50 and a strike rate of 170. Unfortunately their second-highest scorer, 18-year-old Ayush Mhatre, is out for the season with a hamstring injury. Beyond that there isn’t much to write home about, with the rest of the top order struggling (notably Dewald Brevis). Powerplay wickets are a problem, with 18 lost across eight game (only Delhi Capitals have lost more with 19, and six of theirs were lost in a single game against RCB yesterday).

Anshul Kamboj has starred with the ball, and is tied for the Purple Cap with 14 wickets. Spinners Akeal Hossain and Noor Ahmed have exerted control in the middle overs.

This was expected to be a transition year for CSK and that looks to be the case. They should improve on last year, but they look set to finish in the bottom half.

Delhi Capitals – 6 points from eight games

Delhi have had one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory. They broke all kinds of unwanted records yesterday when they were reduced to 8/6 in the powerplay on their way to a heavy defeat against RCB.

The game before they were on the receiving end of a world-record chase of 265 by Punjab Kings, with KL Rahul’s century in a losing cause.

Prior to that they lost a game they really should’ve won (or at least tied), thanks to David Miller‘s brain fade. He turned down a single off the penultimate delivery, which would’ve tied the scores, with a dot off the last delivery handing victory to GT.

KL Rahul has stood tall with the bat with his 358 runs, but there hasn’t been much support from his colleagues. Lungi Ngidi has been decent with the ball – hopefully he recovers swiftly from the head injury he sustained in the field at the weekend. Axar Patel has been the best of the spinners, with Kuldeep uncharacteristically expensive.

They’ve had frailties in both batting and bowling exposed in different and fairly calamitous ways. It’s hard to see where they go from here, and their season seems to be falling apart.

Kolkata Knight Riders – 5 points from eight games

KKR’s season was in tatters before it started, having lost pretty much their entire first-choice pace attack to injury.

The saving grace was meant to be the batting, but it hasn’t turned out that way, with big-hitting Kiwi openers Finn Allen and Tim Seifert both disappointing. Another disappointment has been the mediocre returns from record signing Cameron Green, though at least he’s now able to bowl having been barred from doing so by Cricket Australia in the early matches.

They’ve lost 18 wickets in the powerplay while scoring at just 7.8 runs an over, and that’s really been the root of their problems.

With the ball, both Sunil Narine and Varun Chakravarthy have been excellent, while the stand-in pacers have done a reasonable if unexceptional job.

All that said, they’ve managed to win their two most recent games and get off the bottom of the table. A surprise victory over Rajasthan Royals was followed by a tense super-over win over LSG, in a game which both teams seemed determined to lose. They’ll hope to stay off the bottom of the table, but a top-half finish seems extremely unlikely.

Mumbai Indians – 4 points from seven games

And now to the biggest disappointment of all. Perhaps the most telling stat is that Mumbai Indians have used 20 players so far, more than any other team. It’s hard to make progress with that kind of churn, and it seems that for all their star names, they have no idea how to combine them into a winning team. They score poorly on pretty much every metric.

The injury to Rohit Sharma has unsettled them, and stuttering powerplays with the bat have frequently put them on the back foot early in their innings. The middle order has failed to pick up the slack, with notably poor returns from Suryakumar Yadav and Hardik Pandya in particular (157 and 97 runs respectively, at strike rates in the 140s).

With the ball they lack defined roles, and with teams happy to defend against their biggest weapon Jasprit Bumrah, they seemingly have nowhere else to turn. Bumrah has taken just two wickets, for all that his economy remains impressive at 8 runs an over.

With all the talent at their disposal, Mumbai really should be better at winning games of cricket. They tend to finish seasons better than they start, but it’ll take the mother of all turnarounds to reach the playoffs this time. It might be time to look at whether the captain and coach are the right men for the job ahead of IPL 2027.

Lucknow Super Giants – 4 points from eight games

I’ll admit to reading this one completely incorrectly before the season. I’d expected LSG to be top half, and even contending for the playoffs. I couldn’t have been more wrong.

Two victories – a close one against KKR where Mukul Choudhary pulled off something of a heist with the bat, and a decent performance against SRH, whose batters failed to turn up that day. Then there’s that super-over loss in the return fixture against KKR.

LSG’s problems are too numerous to list them all. They rank worst for death bowling economy, conceding more than two runs a ball in the last four overs. Their batting powerplays have been poor, scoring at less than 7.5. The bright spot is the powerplay bowling, led by Mohammed Shami and Prince Yadav. They’ve conceded just 7.5 in that phase, which in a way counteracts their poor batting performance in that phase.

The top order has been mediocre at best, with Aiden Markram, Mitch Marsh and Rishabh Pant all underperforming. Nicholas Pooran seems woefully out of touch.

The bowling has been somewhat better, with all but Avesh Khan (10.2) going at single figure economy rates. The conclusion is that the batting line-up has really let LSG down this year, and there are no real signs they can turn things around.

While the eyes of the cricket world are fixed firmly on India, and the IPL rolls on with packed stadiums and 200-plus scores every night, the County Championship returns in rather different surroundings.

This morning, players were pulling on two jumpers and a snood to play in front of a few hundred hardy spectators at Taunton and Chester-le-Street, with the ball nipping around under grey skies.

To a certain subset of cricket fans and players, the latter holds greater meaning. Around this time last year, I wrote about Tom Banton’s triple-century for Somerset and contrasted it with the IPL. This year Banton is in India with Gujarat Titans. Meanwhile Ben Duckett has pulled out of his £159,000 deal with Delhi Capitals in order to play for Nottinghamshire and get his red ball game back on track.

The IPL shapes the global game, but the Championship is still where England’s red-ball side is built – or at least where it’s supposed to be.

One of the more interesting subplots coming into this season has been the increasing focus on the relationship between the England set-up and the counties, and whether that pathway has become a bit blurred (or non-existent) in recent years.

I love the Championship – or “Champo” as some people seem to call it nowadays – and part of the intrigue this year is seeing whether that connection starts to tighten up again.

So as the season gets underway today, here are five things worth keeping an eye on.

1. Are England actually watching?

Beyond individual performances, one of the more interesting things to watch is how visible the England set-up actually is around the Championship.

There’s been a growing sense over the past couple of years that the link between county cricket and Test selection has weakened. Added to that, there seems to be a total lack of day-to-day engagement with the domestic game.

As Northants coach Darren Lehmann put it last year: “I’ve never spoken to a selector and never seen a selector, and I’m a county coach. Unbelievable.”

So the question this season is whether that changes.

Are selectors and coaches around the grounds? Is there more communication with counties? Does strong early-season form actually move the dial, or does selection continue to lean more heavily on attributes and long-term projection?

Stokes, McCullum and Key have been making the right noises, but the proof will be in the pudding. If the Championship is meant to be the pathway into Test cricket, it needs to look like one.

2. Who’s first in the queue behind Crawley?

Zak Crawley’s place in the England side has never felt more vulnerable, with a majority of England supporters thinking he’s been given one chance too many. A mediocre Ashes series – in conditions which were supposed to suit his game – was the final straw.

He needs runs, and quickly. And no matter how many he makes for Kent, there will be one hell of an outcry if he strides out alongside Duckett to face New Zealand in June.

The situation adds significant intrigue to the first two months of the county season. There are a number of openers with decent county records who will feel this is their moment.

Haseeb Hameed is the obvious one. He piled up 1,258 runs last season at an average north of 60, and led Nottinghamshire to the title. But like the only man to score more runs in Division One last year, Dom Sibley, he’s previously been dismissed as too attritional for this regime. I’m not sure this England regime are into backtracking, though it’s easy to make the argument that Hameed is a much-improved player nowadays.

Durham’s Ben McKinney is another contender – younger, more in keeping with what England say they want, and already on the radar. He doesn’t have quite the weight of runs behind him as some of the other options though, and he would be another ‘attributes-based’ selection if picked.

Asa Tribe, who averaged 46 in Glamorgan’s promotion-winning season, will now get a chance to shine in Division One. He hit 100 for the Lions against Australia A this winter, and I don’t think it’ll be long before we see him in an England shirt.

3. Jamie Smith – is he a keeper?

The wicketkeeper position is another one worth watching closely.

Jamie Smith had a difficult Ashes series, and even before he took the gloves there was talk that he might ultimately end up as a specialist batter at four or five.

But England’s recent history here is fairly clear. They’ve prioritised batting over keeping. Bairstow held the role for a long period on that basis, and Smith feels like a continuation of that thinking, even if he hasn’t consistently delivered with the bat yet.

Ben Foakes is clearly still the best keeper in the land, but his time in the Test team was the exception rather than the rule, and it’s difficult to see them going back to him given his rather timid batting.

If England move on from Smith, James Rew is the standout candidate. At the age of 22 he’s already made 11 hundreds for Somerset and looks close to the profile England are after. There are younger options behind him too, most notably his brother Thomas who captained the u19 team to the World Cup final and averaged 66 across the tournament.

Given their general reluctance to chop and change, the safest assumption is that Smith stays in place for now. But if he has a poor summer the calls for Rew will get louder.

4. Who can be England’s new Wizard?

England’s seam attack feels uncertain after the winter. Chris Woakes has stepped away, and it would be a surprise if we see much more of Mark Wood in Tests given his injury record and where he is in his career. So there are places up for grabs.

Gus Atkinson came into the winter with plenty of momentum but had a quiet Ashes, and now needs to show he can regain his previous form. His early-season returns for Surrey will be important.

Jofra Archer, if fit, is clearly a banker, while Josh Tongue is one of the few players to come out of the Ashes with real credit.

Beyond that, things get less clear, which brings us to Sam Cook.

He’s been the outstanding seamer in county cricket for a while now, with a record that’s very hard to ignore. There’s been plenty of clamour for him to get a proper run at Test level.

He got his chance against Zimbabwe and took a solitary wicket, without really threatening. He wasn’t picked for India or Australia – notably, Australia went the other way and selected a number of accurate, sub-85mph seamers who did a similar job to what Cook might offer.

So where does that leave him?

He’s almost the test case for England’s selection approach. Do they trust the body of work – years of wickets, relentless accuracy – or do they continue to prioritise attributes they think will translate better at Test level?

Another one to watch is Zimbabwe-born Michael Booth, who bowled with notably more pace for Warwickshire towards the back end of last year. Teammate Oliver Hannon-Dalby has described him as like “a young Chris Woakes”, which from an England perspective sounds like very good news indeed.

5. Will the spin cycle ever stop?

Spin is a huge problem for England’s Test attack, and if I’m honest, it has been since Graeme Swann retired more than a decade ago.

Having bet the house on Shoaib Bashir, then declined to play him in a single Ashes test, the selectors’ thoughts are something of a mystery.

So who could be on England’s radar?

Rehan Ahmed has already played five tests, but I sense England will be reluctant to go into a game with their only spinner being a leggie. His off-spinning brother Farhan may be of interest in time, but probably not yet.

22-year-old all-rounder James Coles took 20 wickets last year for Sussex with his slow left-armers, and earned a £390,000 payday from Southern Brave in the Hundred Auction. He’s been playing for the Lions and also for Sunrisers Eastern Cape in the SA20. Given his prowess with the bat, he could be just the sort of player England are looking for, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on how he performs for Sussex over the next couple of months.

England have been willing to pick on potential in this area, sometimes ahead of output. Graeme Swann has been quite vocal in his view that decent spinners will take wickets in all conditions, but the counties don’t always agree, and we often see all-seam attacks in the early rounds of the Championship.

Many counties prefer the security of a part-time spinner who can bat, which is exactly the approach England took this winter with Will Jacks.

Three more things to note

Injury replacements: One rule change worth keeping an eye on this season is the introduction of full replacement players, extending beyond injuries to cover illness and what the ECB are terming “significant life events” – things like the birth of a child or family illness. It’s a fairly notable shift. For the first time, teams can bring in a like-for-like replacement who can fully participate, rather than just using a substitute fielder.

There are safeguards – medical sign-off, match referee approval, and an eight-day stand-down period for injury or illness replacements – but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in practice.

Sussex points deduction: Sussex will start the season on minus 12 points after entering a three-year financial agreement with the ECB to stabilise the club. It’s a significant handicap in a 14-game season, effectively wiping out most of a win before a ball has been bowled.

Kookaburra trial scrapped: Finally, the Kookaburra experiment has been shelved, with all Championship games reverting to the Dukes ball this season. The trial was meant to prepare players for overseas conditions – encouraging higher pace and bringing spin more into the game – but in practice it largely produced flat, attritional cricket, with big scores and not much else. I’m glad to see the back of it.

In my preview (part I here and part II here if you haven’t read them already), I’ve tried to break down what each team is – how they’re built, what they’re trying to do, and where the weaknesses are.

The next step is turning that into something actionable. Something I can take into a game which will help me find the value in the markets, either before play or in-play.

The idea isn’t to have a bet on every game – it’s to know what to look for when certain patterns show up. More often than not there will be some kind of angle.

Here’s what I’ll be looking for when each team takes to the field, followed by a guide to how I approach betting on a T20 game more generally.

Team-specific angles

Chennai Super Kings

Strength: New-look top order should be much more aggressive

Weakness: Death bowling, overall bowling depth

Angle:
Go long on CSK runs lines – their new-look top order is built to score quickly, and in early games the market may not fully price that in.

But if they bat first and post a strong total, there’s a case to oppose them in-play. The lack of reliable death bowling means even good scores may not be safe.

The Chepauk has a reputation for being one of the lower scoring grounds, but it’s got more batting friendly in recent years, so I’ll also be looking out for runs lines which look on the low side.

Delhi Capitals

Strength: Middle-overs control (Kuldeep and Axar)
Weakness: Powerplay and death bowling uncertainty

Angle:
Delhi should be capable of dragging things back with the ball through the middle overs. If their opponents have made a quick start with the bat, I’ll be looking to short the runs line from the seventh or eighth over onwards.

Gujarat Titans

Strength: Elite top three
Weakness: Untested middle order

Angle:
If Gill, Buttler and Sudharsan get off to a good start, the market may get ahead of itself. The middle order isn’t built to recover from setbacks and a couple of quick wickets could quickly see them on the back foot.

There’s also a player market angle. Rashid Khan’s reputation means he’ll almost always be too short in the team top bowler market, despite a drop-off in returns.

R Sai Kishore, who was outstanding last season, looks a stronger option at likely bigger prices.

Kolkata Knight Riders

Strength: Explosive powerplay batting
Weakness: Depleted fast-bowling attack

Angle:
Back KKR in powerplay markets – they’ll beat most teams in a six-over sprint.

But if they bat first and post a competitive score, there’s a case to oppose them. The bowling lacks the depth to consistently defend totals.

Lucknow Super Giants

Strength: Powerful top order
Weakness: Reliance on top order/fragile structure

Angle:
LSG are very top-order dependent, which creates opportunities in-play similar to the GT angle above.

I’ll also be looking at most sixes markets – with Pooran, Markram and Marsh up top they’ll clear the fence more often than most opponents.

Mumbai Indians

Strength: Elite middle/lower-order batting
Weakness: Bowling may be overrated, despite Bumrah

Angle:
There’s an in-built price angle with MI’s games. Their reputation and star-studded line-up means they’re often too short pre-match, and will start favourites against almost any opponent.

They’ll win plenty of matches though, so I’ll be looking to get them on side in-play, perhaps after an early wicket or two. Their batting depth means they’re well-equipped to recover from early setbacks.

Punjab Kings

Strength: Depth, cohesion, and consistency
Weakness: Slight top-order reliance

Angle:
Lack of star names means they’re often undervalued against the bigger sides.

Punjab will frequently start as underdogs against teams like Mumbai, RCB, Gujarat and Sunrisers, despite being more than a match for most. That creates pre-match value.

Rajasthan Royals

Strength: Powerplay batting
Weakness: Lack of depth and a thin bowling attack

Angle:
Rajasthan are heavily reliant on strong starts from Jaiswal and Sooryavanshi. I’ll be looking to oppose them after the powerplay.

They don’t have the same depth in the middle and lower order, and their bowling isn’t strong enough to consistently capitalise on good positions.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru

Strength: Deep, high-quality batting
Weakness: Bowling heavily dependent on Hazlewood

Angle:
RCB are likely to be priced on reputation and last year’s title win.

If Hazlewood is unavailable, I’ll be against them at short odds. The bowling drops off significantly without him, and the market isn’t certain to fully factor this in.

In particular, I‘ll look to oppose them when defending. Even after posting a strong total, the lack of control in the attack can make them vulnerable.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

Strength: Explosive top order
Weakness: One-dimensional batting and weak bowling

Angle:
SRH are likely to be priced according to the reputation of their top order rather than what they’ve actually achieved.

That can create value in the runs markets. Their innings line will often be set very high – 220 or even 230 – and there’s a case for taking the under at those levels before a ball is bowled.

The batting is powerful but inconsistent, and without a real Plan B they’re vulnerable to early wickets. When that happens, those inflated lines can quickly look too big.

Using the runs line – creating a “middle”

One of the advantages of focusing on runs lines is the flexibility they give you in-play.

If you take a position pre-match and the game moves your way, you don’t necessarily have to just sit on it. You can trade out – or better still, create a middle.

For example, say you back the under on Sunrisers Hyderabad at 230 for £100 before the start. If they lose a couple of early wickets and the line drops to 170, you can then go the other way and back over 170 for the same stake.

That leaves you with zero risk either side, and a strong middle between 170 and 230 where both bets win and you take a £200 profit.

It’s not something that will land every time, but it’s a useful way of turning early reads into low-risk positions, especially with volatile sides where innings can swing quickly.

How I approach a game

I tend to start with venue data.

I’ll usually look at the last four or five seasons – enough to give a reasonable sample size, but not so far back that it becomes less relevant.

From there, I’ll split things out by match type. Day, day-night and night games can play quite differently, particularly in India where dew becomes a major factor in evening matches.

What I’m really trying to establish are two things.

First, what a par score looks like. What do teams typically score batting first at that ground?

Second, whether there’s a toss bias. Is it generally easier to chase or defend?

One thing I find useful here is looking at runs per over rather than just totals. That removes some of the noise from games where sides are bowled out and therefore don’t bat their 20 overs.

That gives me a baseline for the game – what a good score is, how conditions are likely to play, and how much the toss might matter.

From there, it’s about layering in the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

As the tournament goes on, I’ll also start to weight recent games more heavily. Pitches can change quite quickly over the course of an IPL season – often getting lower and slower as they’re used repeatedly – and average scores tend to drop.

At that point, what happened in the last two or three games at a venue can be more relevant than what happened a month earlier.

Markets and timing

I’m usually looking to get involved in the outright market after the toss.

That gives you the chance to take advantage of any toss bias, which the market doesn’t always fully account for.

The toss also dictates the runs line. There’s no point getting involved pre-match when you don’t yet know who’s batting first.

You’ll also be able to factor in team news, and any updates on the playing surface. Is it a new pitch or used? Black or red soil? Where on the square is it located and are there any short boundaries?

Of course the market will move in reaction to the toss and team news too, but I often find it can be slow to react, or fail to fully price in a toss bias.

If you’re betting before the toss, there’s too much guesswork involved.

I don’t tend to play much in the player markets, aside from specific situations where the pricing looks clearly off.

And I avoid bet-builders entirely. They’re designed to look attractive, but once you start combining multiple outcomes the margin quickly works against you. There’s a reason bookmakers promote them so heavily…

In-play

This is where most of the edge is.

Armed with the venue stats and the team-specific angles, I’m looking for moments where the market moves too far, too quickly.

T20 games are volatile, but markets can still overreact. Prices will often drift too much after an early wicket, or shorten too much after a strong powerplay.

Once I’m in a position, it depends on how the game develops. Sometimes I’ll let it run, particularly if the original read still holds. Other times I’ll trade out if the market moves in my favour.

Cashout with bookmakers is generally poor value because of the margin they build in. If I’m closing a position, it’ll usually be on the exchange, where you can do it at a fair price.

Final thoughts

A lot of this comes back to the same idea.

You’re not trying to predict every game correctly. You’re trying to identify where the prices are wrong, and take advantage when the opportunity arises. Focus on having the right bets rather than individual results, and the profit will follow.

Most of the time, it’s about patience and waiting for the right moment rather than forcing bets.

The team previews (Part I and Part II) go into more detail on how each side is built and where their strengths and weaknesses lie. This is really just an extension of that – how those same ideas translate into actual betting decisions.

I’ll be writing regularly as the tournament unfolds, updating angles and highlighting opportunities as I spot them.

Part I covered the first five teams – what they’re trying to be, and where it could go wrong.

Here, it’s the remaining five, followed by a look at how all of that translates into the betting markets – which teams look overpriced, which ones might be a bit overlooked, and where the early angles lie.

Mumbai Indians

Last year: 3rd
Title odds: 7/2
Captain: Hardik Pandya
Coach: Mahela Jayawardene

Mumbai Indians start most seasons as favourites, and on paper it’s easy to see why.

To start with, they have the world’s pre-eminent fast bowler in Jasprit Bumrah. His numbers are elite. Last year he took 18 wickets at 17.6, with an economy of just 6.7 – the lowest of any bowler to have bowled more than four overs in the tournament. His economy rate has been below 7.5 in each of the last eight editions. There isn’t much more to say.

With a squad like MI’s, you don’t need to overhaul much. They’ve just nudged things at the margins. Shardul Thakur comes in, Sherfane Rutherford arrives from Gujarat (where he’ll be missed), and they’ve tried to address a weakness in the spin department by bringing back Mayank Markande, an aggressive leg-spinner who didn’t play a game for KKR last year.

Quinton de Kock also comes in, and may open instead of fellow South African Ryan Rickelton.

The bigger picture is familiar. This is still a side built around elite individual quality, particularly with the bat. The challenge is less about whether they have enough talent, and more about how it all fits together.

Strength

The middle and lower order.

It’s almost an embarrassment of riches. Tilak Varma, Suryakumar Yadav, Sherfane Rutherford and Hardik Pandya give them depth, power and flexibility, while Naman Dhir provides the finishing punch, striking at almost 200 in the death overs last season.

Will Jacks – England’s player of the World Cup – might not even start. That tells you plenty about the options they have.

Concern

The bowling balance, and the overseas puzzle.

The bowling still looks like MI’s weaker suit, which is slightly surprising given Bumrah is in the attack. Trent Boult and Deepak Chahar are the other front-line quicks, while the spin department – Markande alongside Mitchell Santner – looks more workmanlike than title-winning to me.

There’s also a selection squeeze. Boult and Santner feel locked in as two overseas picks, which leaves a couple of difficult calls. Rickelton or de Kock to open alongside Rohit, and Rutherford or Jacks in the middle order.

That second decision is particularly tricky. Rutherford offers more pure power-hitting, especially given his propensity to clear the fence in the middle overs, while Jacks gives them better overall balance with an extra spin option. It’s not an easy trade-off.

Verdict

MI look like worthy favourites again.

They’ve got elite quality, particularly with the bat, and enough depth to absorb the odd issue. But they haven’t won the title since 2020, and at 7/2 the price already reflects a lot of that upside.

Almost nailed on for the playoffs, but at those odds I’d be looking elsewhere for the winner.

Punjab Kings

Last year: Beaten finalists
Title odds: 8/1
Captain: Shreyas Iyer
Coach: Ricky Ponting

Punjab Kings have spent years flirting with being labelled a laughing stock – poorly managed, chaotic at the auction, and inconsistent on the field.

Under Ricky Ponting and Shreyas Iyer, they’ve become anything but. They topped the table last year and only narrowly missed out on the title, losing to RCB in the final.

What’s striking is how little this side relies on big names. Punjab’s success has been built around a strong domestic core, most notably their opening partnership of Priyansh Arya – in his debut IPL season – and Prabhsimran Singh. They scored over 1,000 runs between them and regularly gave Punjab explosive starts. That platform helped them pass 200 eight times across the season.

Because of that underlying strength, they didn’t need to do much at the auction. The main move was bringing in Cooper Connolly as a replacement for Josh Inglis. Otherwise, this is a side built on continuity.

Ponting seems to have instilled a huge amount of belief. Defending 111 against KKR last year says plenty about how this team sees itself – and how hard they are to beat.

There is a familiar structural question, though. Like Gujarat Titans, there’s a sense that they rely heavily on their top three, which this year will include Iyer, their leading run-scorer last year, who will move up from four after Josh Inglis’s departure.

If Arya, Prabhsimran and Iyer don’t fire, the pressure shifts quickly.

That said, the middle order doesn’t look weak on paper. Nehal Wadhera, Marcus Stoinis, Shashank Singh, Azmatullah Omarzai and Mitch Owen give them depth and flexibility, with Marco Jansen potentially batting as low as eight.

Strength

Depth and cohesion.

This is a squad without many headline names, but very few obvious gaps. The batting runs deep, there’s a high degree of continuity from last year, and a middle order packed with all-rounders gives them tactical versatility.

The fast bowling is strong too. Arshdeep Singh leads the attack and is one of the best death bowlers in the tournament, with support from Marco Jansen, Ben Dwarshuis and Xavier Bartlett giving them variety and left-arm options. It’s not a star-heavy unit, but it’s well-rounded.

Concern

Top-order reliance, spin depth, and a slight drop-off in domestic form.

A lot still rests on the top three setting things up. If they have a quieter season, the pressure shifts onto a somewhat untested middle order.

There’s also a slight lack of depth in the spin department. Yuzvendra Chahal (the IPL’s all-time leading wicket-taker) and Harpreet Brar are a strong front-line pairing, but the back-up options are untested. An injury to either could have a significant impact.

And for a side built so heavily around its domestic core, it’s a slight concern that none of Punjab’s batters have really set the world alight in domestic cricket this year. That may not matter once the tournament starts, but it’s not the ideal lead-in.

Verdict

This looks like a team built to win the tournament.

They’ve got continuity, depth, and a clear identity, along with the confidence that comes from last season’s run. At 8/1, I’m backing them to go one better and lift the trophy.

Rajasthan Royals

Last year: 9th
Title odds: 14/1
Captain: Riyan Parag
Coach: Kumar Sangakkara

It’s all change for Rajasthan Royals this year.

The headline is Sanju Samson’s departure to CSK. That’s a huge loss – batter, wicketkeeper and captain. There’s experience coming back in the other direction, with Ravindra Jadeja returning to the franchise 18 years after being part of their title-winning side under Shane Warne, but it’s still a major shift.

There’s upheaval elsewhere too. Sam Curran, one of their key signings, has already been ruled out for the season. Riyan Parag takes over as captain, and while he’s an exciting player, a rookie captain in the IPL always comes with some uncertainty – especially taking over a side that lost four close games last year.

There’s also a change in the dugout, with Kumar Sangakkara returning to replace Rahul Dravid.

The squad itself is a bit of a mix. Donovan Ferreira looks a strong signing based on his performances in other leagues, but he’s unproven in the IPL. And overall, this feels like a side still figuring out what it wants to be.

Strength

Powerplay batting.

Vaibhav Sooryavanshi is one of the most exciting players in the tournament – a 15-year-old who scored a hundred last year at just 14. He’ll open alongside Yashasvi Jaiswal, the established presence at the ripe old age of 24.

That pairing has the potential to get RR off to flying starts and put immediate pressure on opposition bowlers.

Concern

Inexperience, disruption, and a thin bowling attack.

There’s been a lot of change here – new captain, new coach, key players leaving and others arriving. That kind of churn doesn’t always settle quickly.

The bowling, even after being reinforced, still looks a bit thin. Jofra Archer leads the attack but had a poor season last year, and while Sandeep Sharma, Nandre Burger, Tushar Deshpande and Adam Milne provide options, it doesn’t feel like a particularly strong unit. Ravi Bishnoi and Jadeja should handle the spin overs, but the overall balance isn’t especially convincing.

There’s also the broader question of how they cope without Samson, who was central to how this side functioned.

Verdict

This will be a transition year for Royals.

There’s talent here, particularly at the top of the order, but also a lot of uncertainty – new leadership, key absences, and a pace bowling attack that still looks a bit underpowered.

I’ll be watching with interest, but this looks like a bottom-half side.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru

Last year: Champions
Title odds: 6/1
Captain: Rajat Patidar
Coach: Andy Flower

After finally ending their title drought, RCB come into 2026 with a high degree of continuity.

They’ve largely retained the same core, at least among those likely to play. Venkatesh Iyer comes in to bolster the batting, while Kiwi seamer Jacob Duffy provides cover for the injured Josh Hazlewood – more on that shortly.

The batting line-up will look very familiar. Phil Salt provides all-out aggression from ball one – striking at 176 last year – alongside Virat Kohli, who plays a slightly more measured role. Kohli had a stellar 2025, finishing third in the Orange Cap race with 657 runs and eight half centuries.

The middle order is also likely to remain unchanged: Devdutt Padikkal, captain Rajat Patidar, Tim David and Jitesh Sharma.

On the face of it, there’s very little to pick apart here. This is largely the same side that won the title.

Strength

Batting depth and proven quality.

This is a deep and flexible batting unit. Even someone like Jacob Bethell – coming off an outrageous World Cup hundred at the Wankhede – may not start, which says plenty about their resources. He offers flexibility across the order, along with part-time spin.

Romario Shepherd adds further balance as a batting all-rounder, and overall this is a line-up that can adapt to different match situations.

Last year, the bowling at the top of the innings was also a major strength. Hazlewood was outstanding, taking 22 wickets at 17.5 with a remarkable strike rate of a wicket every 12 balls, while Bhuvneshwar Kumar played the perfect supporting role with 17 wickets of his own.

Concern

Hazlewood’s availability, and the knock-on effect on the bowling.

This is the elephant in the room.

Hazlewood hasn’t played competitive cricket since November due to a hamstring injury. He missed both the Ashes and the T20 World Cup, and there’s still no confirmed return date. He’ll also require clearance from Cricket Australia before playing.

If he’s unavailable, the entire balance of the attack shifts. Jacob Duffy is the likely replacement, but he’ll be learning on the job, and the step up to the IPL is notably steep.

Without Hazlewood, what was a major strength quickly starts to look like a weakness. The spin department isn’t especially strong either, with heavy reliance on Krunal Pandya and Suyash Sharma. The latter struggled last season with just 8 wickets at 55.

Verdict

Everything hinges on Hazlewood.

With him fit and available, RCB look like genuine contenders to go back-to-back. Without him, the bowling starts to look vulnerable, and that’s a difficult thing to carry through a full season.

Only two teams have successfully defended an IPL title, and with uncertainty hanging over their best bowler, 6/1 looks short enough to leave alone.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

Last year: 6th
Title odds: 9/1
Captain: Pat Cummins
Coach: Daniel Vettori

Coming into last season, SRH were one of the most talked-about sides in the tournament. Their top order looked outrageous, and it felt like a matter of when, not if, they would breach 300.

In the end, it was a disappointment. Even sixth place arguably flatters them – with three games to go they had just seven points, before three straight wins added some late gloss to an otherwise forgettable campaign.

The batting line-up remains intact, and on paper it’s still their defining strength. Travis Head, Abhishek Sharma, Ishan Kishan, Heinrich Klaasen and Nitish Kumar Reddy offer as much explosiveness as any side in the competition, and the addition of Liam Livingstone only adds to that.

But games aren’t won on paper. Last year the batting failed more often than it fired, and when it did, the collapses were sharp. Too often they looked like a one-trick pony, with no real plan B once early wickets fell. The best teams adapt – recalibrating what a good score looks like and finding a way to get there. SRH didn’t, regularly ending up three or four down in the powerplay and forcing Klaasen into a rescue role rather than a finishing one.

It started well – 286 in one of their early games, with a 45-ball hundred from Ishan Kishan – but four straight defeats soon followed and effectively derailed their season.

Strength

Explosive batting.

On their day, this is the most destructive top order in the tournament. Head, Abhishek, Kishan and Klaasen can take games away almost immediately, and Livingstone only increases that ceiling.

A note of caution, however, is that Head, Abhishek and Klaasen have all been searching for form over the past few months.

Concern

One-dimensional batting, and a weak bowling attack.

The batting is both strength and vulnerability. When it works, SRH look unstoppable. When it doesn’t, there isn’t much of a fallback.

The bigger issue, though, is the bowling.

Pat Cummins is still recovering from a back injury and is won’t be available until mid-way through the tournament. Without him, there’s a clear lack of proven quality. Shami has gone after a disappointing season, and the replacements are largely untested.

Harshal Patel and Jaydev Unadkat are likely to share the new ball, neither coming off particularly strong campaigns, while Brydon Carse is an option but not an obvious upgrade. The spin attack, led by Zeeshan Ansari with support from part-timers like Livingstone, also looks light.

Overall, it’s hard to see this attack consistently defending totals, even if they’re above par.

Verdict

This looks like a one-dimensional side.

They’ll win games when the batting clicks, and there will be days where they blow teams away. But across a full season, the lack of adaptability and a weak bowling unit are likely to be exposed.

Another bottom-half finish awaits.

Betting angles

Outright:

It’s easy to see why Mumbai Indians are favourites, but that’s almost always the case and they haven’t won since 2020. At 7/2 they aren’t for me, though if that price drifts after a slow start they might be of interest at some stage.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru are too short at 6/1 given their best bowler is under an injury cloud.

Conversely Punjab Kings look overpriced at 8/1, given they’re essentially the same side that topped the table last year. Aside from Shreyas and Arshdeep, they lack the flashy names, but that’s not a weakness in my book. I’ve had a decent bet on them to go one better.

To make the playoffs:

MI and RCB should both get there, but they’re odds-on and make no appeal at the prices. One I like at more sensible odds is Lucknow Super Giants. They have a powerful top order, and a workable (if injury-prone) bowling unit. If Rishabh Pant finds some form I think they have enough quality and depth to finish in the top four, and 9/4 is a big enough price for me to get involved.

To finish bottom:

Three teams stand out to me as structurally flawed. Kolkata Knight Riders (7/1) have had their fast bowling decimated by injuries, and have spent big on the overrated Cameron Green. It’s easy to see them bombing out. Rajasthan Royals (9/2) are a side in transition and have been shorn of their best batter. Sunrisers Hyderabad (9/1) look one-dimensional and if the batting doesn’t fire they’ll be in serious trouble. Any of the three look a worthwhile bet at the prices.

Orange Cap (top batter):

I’m not a fan of these markets as a rule, but with most books offering four places each way there could be some value at bigger prices. I’m really looking for a player who bats in the top three here, as those lower down don’t get enough chances for big scores.

The likes of Virat Kohli, Suryakumar Yadav and KL Rahul all have obvious claims, but at single figure prices the value lies elsewhere. Shubman Gill (GT) and Shreyas Iyer (PBKs) make some appeal at around 16/1.

For all that I don’t like KKR’s chances in the tournament as a whole, their weakness is in their bowling rather than their batting, and so opener Finn Allen looks outstanding each way value at 22/1.

Purple Cap (top bowler):

Another market where I’ll be looking for value further down. Jasprit Bumrah and Varun Chakravarthy head the market at around the 8/1 mark, but neither appeal. Bumrah is a genius, but wise teams tend to play him out rather than attack him, which damages his chances of taking most wickets. Varun had a poor World Cup, and given KKR’s fast bowling concerns I wonder if he’ll be bowling to set batters more often than not.

It’s hard to see why last year’s winner Prasidh Krishna is as big as 33/1 and he’s a decent each way bet. I also like Punjab’s Arshdeep Singh at 14/1 – he should take plenty of wickets in the powerplay and return to pick up cheap wickets at the death when batters throw caution to the wind.

What happens from here

That’s where things stand ahead of the new season.

As ever, the reality will look a bit different once it starts. Form, injuries, and small tactical shifts tend to reshape things quickly. I’ll be watching closely as the narratives unfold, writing regularly, and flagging any betting angles as they appear.

If you want to follow along, subscribe below. And if you missed Part I, you can find it here.

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We’ve had high-scoring seasons before, but last year’s IPL was different. More 200+ totals than ever, more successful chases of 200+, more fours, more sixes. Totals that used to feel unassailable started to look below par – remember Sunrisers chasing 246 against Punjab Kings with nine balls to spare?

The impact player rule has tilted the balance further towards batting, giving teams extra depth and encouraging a shift in approach towards more intent from ball one.

Even Chennai Super Kings, perhaps the last bastion of the ‘start steady, build through the middle, finish late’ approach, seem to have moved away from it. Their new top order is built to attack from the outset.

And somewhat counterintuitively, the blitz of boundaries only serves to increase the value of the genuinely outstanding bowlers. The old adage that batters win you matches but bowlers win you tournaments comes to mind.

Below I look at each franchise in turn, how they fared at the auction, what their best team might look like, and what their strengths and weaknesses are.

This is Part I, covering the first five teams alphabetically. The remaining five will follow later this week, along with a look at the betting markets and a few angles ahead of the tournament.

Chennai Super Kings

Last year: 10th
Title odds: 9/1
Captain: Ruturaj Gaikwad
Coach: Stephen Fleming

This is a proper reset for CSK.

Finishing bottom last year – for the first time in their history – has forced them to move away from what’s worked for over a decade. The signing of Sanju Samson, fresh off a T20 World Cup where he was named Player of the Tournament, might just symbolise that shift.

More broadly, this looks like a change in philosophy. Less accumulation, more power. Less ‘take it deep’, more intent from ball one. The old CSK model was built on control and experience – this version looks younger and more aggressive.

It’s also starting to feel like Gaikwad’s team rather than Dhoni’s. Letting Jadeja go is part of that.

Which brings us to the awkward bit – what exactly is Dhoni’s role now? Last season it felt like he actively hurt them at times. Floating around the order, batting as low as nine, not quite committing to any one role. If he’s not captaining and not clearly first-choice keeper, it’s hard to see where the value is. I appreciate this will be sacrilege to the die-hard CSK fan, but they desperately need clarity here.

Strength

Somewhat unusually for CSK, the batting.

Samson, Mhatre, Gaikwad, Brevis and Dube is a serious top five. There’s power all the way through, and more importantly there’s intent. It’s a long way from the more conservative CSK sides of the past, and on the increasingly flat Chepauk surface, that could be a smart strategy.

Concern

The bowling, particularly at the death.

They’ve spent big on the uncapped left-arm spinner Prashant Veer, perhaps viewing him as a potential long-term replacement for Ravi Jadeja. Matt Henry and Akeal Hosein give them options with the new ball, and Noor Ahmad will be key in the middle overs.

But the back end looks light. Nathan Ellis being ruled out is a big blow, and even more so given they’ve moved on from Pathirana (who, incidentally, is also injured). That leaves a gap in a phase of the game where margins are tiny.

There’s also just a lot of change here. New personnel, new approach – it doesn’t always click straight away.

Verdict

This is one of the more interesting teams in the tournament this year.

The batting could be good enough to carry them a long way, but the bowling feels a bit undercooked and the Dhoni situation still hangs over things. If it all gels, they’re playoff contenders. If it doesn’t, it could be another slightly messy season while they figure out what this new version of CSK actually is.

Delhi Capitals

Last year: 5th
Title odds: 10/1
Captain: Axar Patel
Coach: Hemang Badani

Delhi are one of the more settled sides in the tournament, which in itself makes them interesting.

At the halfway stage last season, they were top of the table, having started with four wins on the bounce, and looked nailed on for the playoffs. What followed – a run of four straight losses in the second half – was a reminder of how quickly an IPL campaign can unravel if you lose momentum.

They’ve largely stuck with their core from last year. KL Rahul, Axar Patel, Tristan Stubbs, Kuldeep Yadav and Mitchell Starc all remain, giving them a real sense of continuity. Around that, they’ve refreshed rather than rebuilt – Faf and Fraser-McGurk out, Miller, Rana and Nissanka in. It feels like they’ve had a decent auction.

They chopped and changed at the top of the order last year, usually leaning on overseas combinations, and it never quite settled. Axar has said Rahul will move back to open this year, which looks an obviously good move. He’s got over 4,000 IPL runs up top at an average of 48, compared to 33 in the middle order.

The middle order looks well-stocked. Stubbs continues to develop into a seriously high-end T20 player, and Miller gives them experience and finishing nous. Ashutosh Sharma has shown he can be clutch in a tight finish too.

Strength

Middle-overs bowling.

Kuldeep and Axar remain one of the best spin pairings in the tournament. They control the middle overs, take wickets, and give the captain flexibility.

Concern

Outside the middle overs, there are question marks about Capitals’ bowling though. They struggled to take wickets in the powerplay last season, and were expensive at the death too.

Starc transforms the attack. He’s elite at both ends of the innings, and his death bowling in particular is close to irreplaceable. But he’s not available for the start of the tournament, with Cricket Australia keen to manage his workload. T. Natarajan provides left-arm support and will have a significant role while Starc is absent.

Lungi Ngidi is an interesting option as an impact player, coming off a decent World Cup which showcased his extremely effective slower ball.

Much intrigue surrounds IPL debutant Auqib Nabi, fresh from powering Jammu and Kashmir to a maiden Ranji Trophy win with 60 wickets at 12.7. Capitals will need him to hit the ground running.

The other concern is around role clarity. They’ve got depth almost everywhere, which sounds like a positive but can easily turn into constant tinkering. We saw that with the opening combination last year. They need to work out what their best combinations are early, and then back them for the rest of the season.

Verdict

On paper this is a team that should be in the playoff mix again.

They’ve got a strong core, one of the great IPL openers, a powerful middle order, and a bowling attack that can strangle teams in the middle of the innings. But there are enough uncertainties – Starc’s availability, the temptation to over-rotate, and their tendency to lose momentum – to make me think Capitals will end up mid-table.

Gujurat Titans

Last year: 4th
Title odds: 17/2
Captain: Shubman Gill
Coach: Ashish Nehra

On the surface there’s a lot to like – a settled core, serious quality at the top of the order, and plenty of bowling options. But scratch a little deeper and there are a few structural concerns.

The batting revolves around the top three, and it’s hard to overstate how good they were last season. Buttler, Gill and Sai Sudharsan scored almost 2,000 runs between them, with Sudharsan the standout – 759 runs at an average north of 50 and a strike rate of 156, earning him the Orange Cap.

The issue is what happens when that top three doesn’t fire.

Too often last year, if one or two of them failed, the innings stalled. They tended to bat deep into the innings, which is great when it works, but it also meant the middle order was underused and, when called upon, undercooked.

That concern is amplified this year.

Sherfane Rutherford’s release was a surprise. He offered genuine middle-order punch, and they don’t really have a like-for-like replacement. Washington Sundar may bat four, and Glenn Philips could bat five, but neither has Rutherford’s pure destructiveness.

There are also question marks around Buttler’s form after a poor World Cup, which adds unwelcome uncertainty to what has otherwise been their biggest strength.

Strength

The bowling depth.

GT are very well stocked here. Prasidh Krishna comes in as the reigning Purple Cap winner, Mohammed Siraj offers consistency and plenty of lateral movement, and Kagiso Rabada may not even be a guaranteed starter, which tells you plenty about their depth. Jason Holder adds further flexibility.

R Sai Kishore was outstanding last season and looks set to lead the spin attack again. GT may need him to have another good year though, given concerns over the deterioration in Rashid Khan’s numbers. Sundar and Philips provide more than useful part-time spin options.

Concern

Two main ones.

The first is the overreliance on the top three. With Buttler out of form, that risk feels more pronounced this year. There’s also a broader concern that the middle order could be vulnerable, particularly against spin, given how little it was exposed last season. With no Rutherford, a lot rests on how Washington and Philips navigate the middle overs and set things up for Rahul Tewatia to finish things off.

The second (and perhaps biggest) concern is Rashid Khan.

Up to and including 2023, his numbers were absurd – 139 wickets at 20.8, economy 6.7. Over the past two years, that’s dropped to 19 wickets at 46.4, with the economy up to 8.9. That’s seriously worrying.

If Rashid isn’t the match-winner he once was, it changes the balance of the side quite significantly. They’ll need Sai Kishore to step up again, and possibly more spin overs from Sundar and Philips.

Verdict

There’s a lot to like here, but also a few too many ifs.

If the top three fire again, they’ll win plenty of games. The bowling looks strong, especially if Rashid finds something close to his old level. But if those things don’t happen, the cracks could show quite quickly.

GT feel like a mid-table side to me – competitive, but just lacking a bit of balance to be serious contenders.

Kolkata Knight Riders

Last year: 8th
Title odds: 10/1
Captain: Ajinkya Rahane
Coach: Abhishek Nayar

KKR look like a team in trouble before a ball has even been bowled.

Their fast-bowling stocks have been decimated. Pathirana is set to miss the early stages, Harshit Rana and Akash Deep are out entirely, and Mustafizur Rahman is unavailable due to political complications. That leaves a makeshift seam attack likely to be led by Blessing Muzarabani, supported by a mix of domestic options in Saurabh Dubey, Vaibhav Arora, Umran Malik and Kartik Tyagi.

That’s a lot of churn, and not much proven quality.

It puts a huge amount of pressure on the spin pair of Sunil Narine and Varun Chakaravarthy. The latter comes in off the back of a World Cup where he was uncharacteristically expensive. They’ll need both to be at their best just to keep things competitive.

The flip side is that the batting looks box-office.

Narine is one of the best six-hitters in the business, and KKR have doubled down on that aggressive approach by bringing in Kiwi openers Finn Allen and Tim Seifert, with Allen in particular coming off a ridiculous 33-ball hundred at KKR’s home ground in the World Cup semi-final.

The big selection puzzle is how the batting order fits together.

Cameron Green will almost certainly bat in the top order – probably at four – with captain Rahane at three. That leaves a call to be made at the top. Do they keep the Allen-Seifert pairing intact, or stick with Narine opening and push one of the Kiwis out?

For me it’s straightforward. Narine has to open. He strikes at 176 in that role and drops to 137 when used lower down. Moving him weakens one of their biggest advantages.

Green is the other question mark. He’s now the most expensive overseas player in IPL history, but I’m still not convinced. He hasn’t exactly set the world alight either in franchise cricket, or across formats for Australia. Regular readers will know that I just think he’s an overrated cricketer. Let’s see if he can justify that £2m+ price tag.

Strength

The batting, particularly at the top.

This is one of the most explosive top orders in the tournament, and could blow teams off the park by the end of the powerplay.

Concern

The bowling, and it’s a big one.

They’re going into the tournament with a patched-up seam attack and relying heavily on spin to hold things together. That’s not an ideal position to be in, especially early on while combinations are still settling.

Even if the batters put up big scores, there’s a real risk they won’t be able to defend them.

There’s also a bit of uncertainty around the batting order, and if they get that wrong it could blunt what should be a major strength.

Verdict

KKR will be entertaining, but inconsistent.

They’ll make big scores, win a few games in a blaze of power hitting, but the bowling looks too thin to sustain a serious playoff push. Hard to see them finishing in the top half unless something clicks quickly on the bowling side.

Lucknow Super Giants

Last year: 7th
Title odds: 12/1
Captain: Rishabh Pant
Coach: Justin Langer

LSG flattered to deceive last season. Five wins from their first eight had them well placed, but they fell away badly, winning just once in their final six games.

Rishabh Pant’s form was a big part of that. He struggled throughout the tournament and, until a late hundred in the final game, had managed just 84 runs. For a side built around a strong top order, that was a major hole.

They’ve largely stuck with that core, but have augmented that with some smart work at the auction, led by incoming Director of Cricket Tom Moody. Josh Inglis adds flexibility, Mohammed Shami brings experience and control with the new ball, Anrich Nortje offers genuine pace, and Wanindu Hasaranga gives them a front-line spin option alongside lower-order hitting.

There’s also continuity where it matters. Nicholas Pooran was one of the players of the tournament last year, scoring 524 runs at a strike rate of 196 – the second-highest among batters with 100+ runs – and hitting more sixes than anyone else (40). He’ll likely form part of a top four alongside Mitchell Marsh, Aiden Markram and Pant.

That’s a powerful unit, but it also creates a selection squeeze. Inglis, despite being one of their more interesting additions, may not start immediately (and indeed is unavailable for some games due to his wedding, which seems like somewhat poor planning on his part). It’s a reminder that while LSG have depth, not all of it fits neatly into the same team.

Pant is the big question – in fact I’d go so far as to say LSG’s season hinges on his form. There are reasons to think he might improve on last year’s disappointment – it was his first with the franchise – but it’s still a leap of faith.

Like Gujarat Titans, LSG risk becoming overly reliant on their top order. If Pooran, Marsh and Markram fire, they’ll look excellent. If they don’t, trouble awaits.

The bowling, on paper, has plenty of variety. A pace attack drawn from Shami, Nortje, Avesh Khan, Mayank Yadav and Mohsin Khan has plenty going for it – a blend of youth and experience, and a mixture of guile and raw pace.

2025 breakout star Digvesh Rathi will once again be key to the middle overs with his attacking leg-breaks, and bringing in Hasaranga looks a smart move.

That whole attack comes with risk attached though. Pretty much all of them have patchy injury records, and it wouldn’t take much for the wheels to come off.

Strength

The top order.

Pooran, Marsh, Markram (and Pant if he finds form) give LSG serious firepower. They’ve got multiple players who can take games away quickly, and in a high-scoring tournament that matters more than ever.

Concern

A lot rests on the top order producing consistently, and the bowling unit staying fit. If either of those things wobbles, the overall balance starts to look shaky quite quickly.

Verdict

There’s a clear route to this team being good.

If Pant has a strong season and the bowling group stays largely fit, LSG have enough quality to finish in the top four.

Stay tuned for part II

That’s the first half of the league.

Part II will follow later this week, covering Mumbai Indians, Punjab Kings, Rajasthan Royals, Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Sunrisers Hyderabad, along with a close look at the betting markets – where the prices line up with the underlying strengths, where they don’t, and a few angles that stand out ahead of the tournament.

This article is a collaboration between Ben Brettell (CricInspo) and Tanish Taneja (Tanish’s Substack). If you enjoy it, make sure you’re subscribed to both publications. We’d love to have you along for future cricket conversations.

Let’s be honest. For all the pre-tournament concerns about form, we all still expected Australia to top their group. Upsets happen to England and Pakistan, not to the Aussies. But they lost to Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka, and – somewhat ironically – were finally eliminated by the rain.

Australia’s run of poor results started before the World Cup group stage. They lost their warm-up series in Pakistan three-nil, and they lost badly. In three games, Australia scored just 350 runs, while Pakistan scored 573. Their middle order in particular looked fragile, collapsing in each game.

But Australia’s elimination wasn’t the result of a couple of bad days at the office, nor was it simply about the poor form of their batters. Their problem is structural, and its genesis can be traced back to their all-conquering bowling cartel.

The missing new ball spine

Let’s start with what wasn’t there.

No Pat Cummins. No Josh Hazlewood. No Mitchell Starc in T20Is. For years, Australia’s bowling strategy has relied on defined powerplay roles and output.

Hazlewood in particular has excelled. In the first six overs, he’s taken 46 wickets at 18.5, while going for just 6.4 RPO. Expanded across all phases in Asia, he has 29 wickets at an incredible 16.7, and just a marginally higher economy of 7.0.

Without him, there was no natural powerplay enforcer, and no obvious wicket-taking threat in the first six overs.

Pat Cummins is clearly missed too, though not as much as Hazlewood. Cummins’ career numbers are excellent (66 wickets at just under 24 and a 7.44 economy), but in Asia they drift, with an average north of 30 and an economy just over eight.

Nathan Ellis and Xavier Bartlett are good domestic players, but they can’t replicate this consistency or threat on the biggest stage. The former’s numbers are good (54 wickets at 17.9 and an economy of 7.81), but he’s come off a BBL season where conceded more than nine an over.

Bartlett’s been worse for club and country. He goes at eight an over across his career. In four T20Is on Asian soil, he’s taken just 3 wickets at 40.7, with a double-figure economy rate. In the latest BBL, he went for nine and a half.

The downgrade has had the expected impact. Australia were only able to pick up five powerplay wickets in Pakistan. Against Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka they took just two wickets in each game.

Bartlett and Ellis have a combined four wickets in 14.5 overs at the World Cup. Or to be clear, Ellis has four wickets. Bartlett went wicketless against Ireland, and was promptly dropped for the Zimbabwe game.

Without consistent and reliable powerplay pacers, Australia have needed enough sixth and seventh options to pick up the slack – especially on the Sri Lankan decks that have rewarded spin-heavy line-ups.

Australia’s overcorrection – packing the side with all-rounders

Maxwell. Connolly. Green. Stoinis.

On paper that looks like depth. In practice, it compromised Australia’s batting without providing much bowling support. None of the four are powerplay specialists. None provide the threat that Hazlewood or Cummins offer. None can reliably stem the flow in the middle overs.

In some ways, Australia’s thinking is understandable. If you don’t trust your bowling depth, you give yourself cover and extend your batting depth. That’s the allure of the all-rounder tactic; and if your all-rounders are thriving in both roles, you look like a genius.

Australia’s all-rounders were not thriving in both roles. Often, they weren’t even thriving in one.

Glenn Maxwell is an all-rounder who’s single-handedly won World Cup games on the subcontinent with the bat. But he’s not particularly known for his bowling, and his recent form isn’t great either. In the most recent BBL edition, he bowled 18 overs in 10 games, picking up just two wickets at an economy of 7.72. At this World Cup, he’s bowled 3 wicketless overs at an economy of 10.

Cooper Connolly has almost the reverse issue. His batting role is poorly defined, but he had a great BBL season. He was the Perth Scorchers’ leading wicket-taker with 15 scalps. But for Australia, those numbers plummet. In his short 11-game career, he’s picked up just three wickets in 25 overs while going at 9.25. In two World Cup games, he’s conceded 53 runs for no wickets in six overs.

Marcus Stoinis is the closest thing to a logical pick. He’s coming off a strong BBL season where he picked up 15 wickets at an elite strike rate of 12.5, while also going at less than 7.5. But he’s rarely proved effective in the subcontinent, and throwing him the new ball smacks of desperation. In the World Cup, he’s bowled 5.5 overs, and conceded 63 runs for three wickets.

Finally, we have Cameron Green. Theoretically an all-rounder, he’s bowled seven deliveries in three World Cup games. In reality, he’s a specialist bat who’s scored 24 runs in three innings.

The worst part of this plan is that the Aussies know it’s not working. Despite handily beating Ireland in their first game, they made wholesale changes to their team before their second outing against Zimbabwe. Connolly and Bartlett were dropped. Australia took just two wickets and lost.

In response, more changes were made. Ben Dwarshuis and Matthew Kuhnemann – specialist bowlers – were dropped to bring the duo back to face Sri Lanka. Australia took just two wickets and lost.

But this chopping and changing hasn’t just affected Australia’s bowling unit – it’s damaged an already weak batting order.

When bowling anxiety distorts the batting order

Across the six games in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, Australia picked six different batting lineups.

The injury to Mitch Marsh was unfortunate and enforced one of those changes, but everyone else seems to be playing a game of musical chairs. Josh Philippe, Matt Short and Mitch Owen were tried in Pakistan but none of them even part of the World Cup squad.

Tim David didn’t play until the Ireland game before replacing Renshaw at four against Zimbabwe. Renshaw, who batted four in the Pakistan series slipped down to six against Zimbabwe and then got dropped for Sri Lanka. Connolly batted at five, six, seven and eight without success.

Stoinis batted at five for the last game of the Pakistan series before dropping to six against Ireland, and then seven in the next couple of games.

If this is confusing to you, it’s confusing to us too.

The one consistent selection has been Cam Green at three. But that makes little sense either. He averages 18 in seven games at first-drop, with a high score of 36 and a strike rate of 123. One position lower he averages close to 60 and strikes at 162.

Meanwhile, Tim David’s been promoted to four. For context, he scores at 170 when batting at six. In 10 innings at 4, he’s averaged just 24. His power-hitting game is built for the death, not the stability and rebuilding of the middle overs.

Matt Renshaw – a natural four who’s been dropped down the order – has been Australia’s most stable batter this World Cup. Yet he was dropped for the crucial game against Sri Lanka in favour of greater bowling flexibility.

And then there’s the curious case of Steve Smith. Flying him in only to make him run drinks did little to clarify Australia’s direction. While some might argue that he is not the ideal choice for modern day T20Is, an anchor like him might have been the piece that Australia needed to stabilise their failing middle order.

Ironically, the one middle-order bat who performed was all-rounder Marcus Stoinis. He scored 273 runs while striking at 135 in the BBL, and is used to playing down the order for Australia. However – and of course everyone gets a however in this Australia team – he’s much better at home than away. In Asia, he averages 25 and strikes at 135, a big drop from his home numbers of 36 and 160.

Role confusion, recurring collapses and poor planning

And so, we come full circle to our surface-level problem.

The middle order collapses that have marred Australia’s campaign didn’t begin in this tournament. They were visible in the Pakistan series too – six wickets lost in 51 balls in game one, seven in 53 in game two, and six in 46 in game three.

In that context, 29 for 4 inside the powerplay against Zimbabwe shouldn’t have been a surprise.

The constant changes to the playing XI didn’t help, nor did the mismatched positions. Green trying to impose himself too early. David rebuilding instead of finishing. Maxwell searching for tempo. Connolly managing neither discipline convincingly.

When collapses reoccur across multiple games, the explanation is rarely bad matchups, bad form or bad conditions. Instead it points to a structural problem.

A middle order unsure of its collective identity will unravel more quickly when early wickets fall. And, ironically, it all stems from a problem with their bowling rather than their batting.

Injuries and retirements weakened the bowling core. The response was to hedge that with all-rounders. That decision distorted the batting order. Distorted roles created uncertainty. And uncertainty, under pressure, tends to produce collapses.

Australia don’t lack talent. They lack alignment. On the biggest stage, clarity isn’t a luxury. It’s the foundation. Australia spent too much of this campaign trying to patch structural gaps rather than reinforcing a core identity. By the time the pressure peaked, the structure had already collapsed.

The powerplay is crucial in T20 cricket.

Over the past decade in T20 Internationals, the side that posts the higher powerplay total has gone on to win almost 65% of matches. The first six overs can shape the innings.

With bat in hand, England held a statistical edge in Wednesday’s clash with West Indies. Since the last World Cup, West Indies’ average powerplay score is 44.8 – 13th of the 20 teams in this tournament. England, by contrast, lead the way with 58.4.

The issue emerges when England take the ball.

Since the last World Cup they’ve conceded 57.0 in the first six overs on average – the worst of any side in the competition. West Indies concede 51.8. In the four years prior to that, England conceded 46.8, materially better than we’ve seen more recently.

Wednesday’s powerplay – a microcosm

The first six overs against West Indies at the Wankhede illustrated the problem neatly enough.

Archer opened, and he looked quick – properly quick – but also like a man searching for something. His follow-through was longer than usual, and the usual silky rhythm was lacking. Whether it was a desire to atone for his poor showing against Nepal, or the extra edge of facing West Indies, Archer wasn’t quite at the races.

A leg-side wide first ball. Five wides three deliveries later. A bouncer called wide. Only one run off the bat in his first over, but with seven extras it felt unsettled.

His wicket – Hope slapping a short, wide ball to cover – was fortunate. He finished with 1/48 from four overs. The pace was there, but the control was lacking.

Given Archer’s career consistency, it’s reasonable to treat this as just a bad day at the office. But it was his second in succession. And when England’s powerplay bowling already looks fragile, that’s a worrying sign with a must-win game against Scotland tomorrow.

Brook did respond intelligently. With Hetmyer in early – a destructive hitter of spin – he pivoted away from Liam Dawson (who’d been ready to bowl) and went to Sam Curran. That was match-up thinking – Curran bowls into the pitch, disrupts the batter’s timing with his variations, and can be harder to line up early.

It paid off immediately: King holed out, and after two overs, West Indies were 10/2.

The control didn’t last – a couple of loose overs from Archer and Curran gave the momentum back to West Indies, and Brook turned to Will Jacks. The instinct to take pace off may have had logic, but the choice of bowler to execute that plan was questionable.

Before this match Jacks had bowled eight powerplay overs for England, conceding 102 runs at 12.75 per over. Hetmyer and Chase are proactive against spin, and have both dismantled better bowlers than Jacks. Chase used his feet well and struck three fours in succession, Hetmyer cleared the ropes, and the over cost 19.

If your powerplay bowling is already the weakest in the tournament statistically, this is not the phase for experimental part-time spin.

Jamie Overton restored some order in the sixth over, hitting a hard length, conceding just one run and removing the dangerous Hetmyer. West Indies closed the powerplay at 55/3 – broadly in line with England’s recent average.

Archer and the burden of stability

Archer is the mainstay of this England attack. Across the past decade, he has the lowest variation in innings economy rates of any England bowler to have delivered at least 20 T20I spells.

This is why England look exposed when Archer goes for runs.

Since the 2024 World Cup, England have used 17 different bowlers in the powerplay, 12 of whom have taken the new ball. They’ve tried 14 new-ball combinations in that time. Archer has opened with seven different partners.

That level of churn is not unusual by international T20 standards. Other sides rotate too. But the difference is that England don’t appear to have a clearly defined second pillar.

Saqib Mahmood is injured (again). Luke Wood is in and out of the side. Overton was selected in his place on Wednesday, but in truth he’s a middle-overs bowler. Dawson warmed up and then was bypassed. Curran did reasonably well, but is usually better at the death.

None of that is indefensible in isolation, but it does create an over-reliance on Archer.

The results underline this key-man dependency. When Archer goes at more than nine an over, England’s win-loss ratio is 0.33. When he concedes fewer than six-and-a-half, it rises to 1.66.

The structural issue

There’s a temptation to treat each poor powerplay as an isolated incident – an off-day here, a miscalculation there. But the longer trend suggests something structural.

England are asking different bowlers to perform different roles from game to game. New-ball pairings change, and the pack is shuffled. Of course, match-ups can mean a change of plan, but there’s little sense of a settled template.

Contrast that with the batting unit, where roles are defined. Salt is destructive, Buttler plays with a more measured tempo, and Bethell can adapt to the situation depending on when he comes to the crease.

With the ball, England look incoherent, and are often forced to improvise. When Archer has one of his usual good days, they can look competitive. When he doesn’t, they look uncertain. That’s too narrow a margin for error for a side with ambitions of lifting a trophy.

The first six overs are certainly setting the tone – just not always in the way England would like.

Yes, it’s another World Cup.

I can’t help but feel that sooner or later the ICC’s greed will catch up with them – the current frequency of tournaments is bound to dilute the product at some stage.

Do we really need a T20 World Cup every two years, to go with the quadrennial ODI World Cup and the superfluous Champions Trophy. It would be better to make both World Cups every four years, so we alternate every two years, and scrap the Champions Trophy altogether.

Anyway, rant over. There’s a World Cup starting tomorrow, and like all such events it will present betting opportunities if you know where to look.

Controversy

Let’s get this out of the way first. The backdrop to this tournament has been unusually fraught.

Bangladesh withdrew from the tournament after refusing to send their team to India, citing security concerns and unsuccessfully asking for their matches to be relocated to Sri Lanka – a stance the ICC did not accept, and as a result Scotland have taken their place in Group C. Meanwhile Pakistan have announced they will boycott their scheduled match against India on February 15 in Colombo as a protest against the handling of the Bangladesh situation, a move that has put additional political and sporting tension into an already high-profile event.

The format

There are twenty teams split into four groups of five. Each team plays the other teams in their group once, and the top two advance to the Super Eights. This will be two groups of four, also played in a round-robin format, with the top two from each group advancing to the semi finals.

A small gripe here is that the seeded teams from each group – the top two in the graphic above – already know which Super Eights group they’ll progress to, regardless of where they finish in their group, which reduces the jeopardy and interest in the earlier stages. I get why it has to be this way, for scheduling reasons, but it’s not ideal.

If all the seeds progress, they’ll line up as follows:

Super Eight Group 1: India, Australia, West Indies, South Africa

Super Eight Group 2: England, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

If a seed fails to progress, the team which qualified instead will take their place in the designated Super Eights group.

Got all that? Okay, let’s move on and look at each group in turn:

Group-by-group

Group A

Likely winner: India

Likely runner up: Pakistan

Potential upsets: Surely the USA can’t beat Pakistan again, can they? If one of the minnows can beat one of the big guns in Group A, my money would be on the Netherlands. Who can forget their historic victory over South Africa in the 2023 ODI World Cup?

Group B

Likely winner: Australia

Likely runner up: Sri Lanka

Potential upsets: I’d be surprised if there were any.

Group C

Likely winner: England

Likely runner up: West Indies

Potential upsets: As an Englishman I’m always worried about Scotland, who always seem to raise their game against ‘the auld enemy’. Two years ago in Bridgetown in a rain-shortened affair they reached 90-0 in their ten overs before the storms returned to spoil the fun.

Group D

Likely winner: New Zealand

Likely runner up: South Africa

Potential upsets: This is the tournament’s ‘group of death’, and it wouldn’t really qualify as an upset if Afghanistan qualified in place of either seed.

Group betting angles:

There aren’t many angles in the group betting markets. The first three groups have obvious winners and runners up. The exception is Group D, where South Africa are surprising favourites at 5/4. Despite the strength in their squad, their T20 form hasn’t been great, and it’s easy to make a case for New Zealand at odds of 7/4.

Team-by-team

There are plenty of detailed team previews out there, so I’m going to limit this section to a quick word on the eight seeds plus Afghanistan, in betting market order.

India – 11/8

I’ve tried really hard to find value alternatives to India here, but come up short. They just seem to be playing a different game from everyone else at the moment. Unbelievably destructive batting with Abishek up top, and the good news for them is that SKY seems to be hitting some form at the right time too. A power-packed middle order awaits any team who gets through the first few wickets. India are blessed in the bowling department too, with Kuldeep and Varun the pick of the spin options, and of course the ace in the hole, Jasprit Bumrah. They’ll need to have a really off day to be beaten by anyone.

Australia – 5/1

A hard team to assess, with a fantastic record in ICC tournaments set against some pretty woeful recent form. A chastening 3-0 defeat to Pakistan wasn’t the ideal warm-up, with the batting looking frail against spin. They’ll need openers Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh to have a good tournament, along with the excellent Adam Zampa. Perhaps the extended format will allow them to play into some form, but I couldn’t bet them at current odds.

England – 6/1

I think England have half a chance here. Despite their travails in the longer formats, they’ve been a decent outfit in T20s for a while, and are probably the only team who can match India for hitting power on their day. Salt and Buttler are excellent up top, and Harry Brook looked in good touch in the Sri Lanka warm-ups. They bat all the way down, and have two world-class bowlers in Adil Rashid and Jofra Archer. They’re also seeded into the easier-looking Super Eights group. I can certainly see them making the final.

South Africa – 6/1

Looking at the likely XI it would be easy to view 2024’s beaten finalists as potential winners. But despite the talent available, they have an awful recent record of just 12 wins from their 30 games since the last World Cup. They’ve rarely put out their very best team during that period, but with that win record it’s easy to see them disappointing, despite having one of the best batters in the world in Dewald Brevis. They must also negotiate Group D with both New Zealand and Afghanistan vying for qualification.

New Zealand – 12/1

Whatever the format, New Zealand always seem to punch above their weight in ICC tournaments. They have a formidable opening pair in Tim Seifert and Finn Allen, and a potent powerplay weapon in Matt Henry. Their spinners proved expensive in the recent defeat to India, which is a concern. Solid semi-final candidates.

Pakistan – 14/1

Mercurial is the word for Pakistan. On their day they can beat anyone, but they just can’t do it consistently. That said, they’ve won 22 of their 31 matches in Asia since the last World Cup, and have just thrashed Australia 3-0. They’ll forfeit the points for their India game, but that shouldn’t cost them given the way the seeding works. I wonder if the boycott would hold if they were scheduled to meet India in a semi final or final…

West Indies – 40/1

More mercurialness (is that even a word)? Packed with power but seriously inconsistent, this West Indies line up are as likely to score 250 as be bowled out for 80. If they make it to the Super Eights, as they should, they’ll likely face Australia, India and South Africa, and that’s almost certain to prove too tough a task. They’re an immensely entertaining team to watch though.

Sri Lanka – 40/1

I’d love to see the co-hosts do well, but despite an impressive arsenal of spin bowlers they probably don’t have the batting depth or power to challenge the big guns.

Afghanistan – 40/1

Similar thoughts to Sri Lanka here – a spin attack to threaten any team, but a lack of depth in the batting. A sporting chance to make the Super Eights should South Africa or New Zealand fluff their lines, but unlikely to make it much further.

Outright market betting angles:

I can’t see past India for the win, and have been including them in doubles with other bets for a couple of months. Even skinny odds of 11/8 could look like incredible value with hindsight, though I appreciate short prices aren’t for everyone. One wager I do like the look of is the 4/1 about an India/England final.

Grounds

Five in India and three in Sri Lanka. Before having a bet on any individual game, I’d suggest using Cricinfo’s statsguru tool – alongside a weather report – to assess the likely conditions. As you can see from the chart, scoring rates differ quite a bit over the eight grounds, with four of the five Indian venues looking batsman-friendly, and the three Sri Lankan venues plus Chennai offering more hope for the bowlers.

Betting angle:

I’m a fan of betting the under/over market for first-innings runs, largely because the market seems to focus on the teams involved and underestimate conditions. Some of the surfaces, especially in Sri Lanka, can be slow and low, and we could see some below par totals, so keep an eye on the lines with a view to going under in these games.

Player markets

Top tournament batter

There are two main factors I want to discuss here. The first is that I’d be reluctant to back a player from a team in Group D – it’s the only group with real jeopardy and there’s a chance either New Zealand or South Africa don’t make it to the Super Eights, which would kill any bet.

The second thing to consider is that the winner will likely have taken the opportunity to score big runs against the minnows early in the tournament, so it might pay to focus on the top three in the batting order. There’s a chance the likes of Harry Brook (for example) won’t get a look in against Italy/Scotland/Nepal while Salt and Buttler are making hundreds.

He’s something of an obvious choice, but Abishek Sharma is the top T20 batter in the world for a reason. He opens the batting and plays for a team almost certain to go deep into the tournament, and who are odds-on to reach the final. He looks a decent bet at 7/1, though it’s worth noting that India will almost certainly play one fewer group game because of the Pakistan situation.

Jos Buttler catches the eye at 12/1 for similar reasons. Finn Allen is 25/1, which is tempting despite my Group D reservations, likewise Dewald Brevis at 40/1. For the bigger prices here it’s worth noting most books are offering 4 places each way.

Top tournament bowler

I’m going to keep it simple here and bet both the Indian specialist spinners, Varun and Kuldeep. Not the most original bet in the world, but they’re both available at 9/1 which works out at 4/1 the pair combined, and I think that’s more than fair value.

At a bigger price, I also like the look of Matt Henry, who takes plenty of wickets in the Powerplay and at the death. He’s too big at 25/1.

Other markets

In the more obscure markets one bet has caught my eye, though it’s only available with Paddy Power and Skybet by the looks of it. India are priced at 13/8 to score most tournament sixes. Yes, they’ll play one fewer game, but the games they do play, including in the Super Eights, will be on the more batting-friendly surfaces in India, whereas most of the other teams will need to contend with the slower Sri Lankan pitches at some point.

India have hit a six every 11 balls since the last World Cup. That’s ridiculous. The 13/8 just looks like a flat-out mistake by the odds compilers, and is probably the best bet of the tournament.

Recommended further reading:

Mayank, a.k.a Freehit, has written a fantastic preview with plenty of insight:

Freehit's Blog

The Real Contenders - T20 World Cup 2026

Yet another T20 World Cup is upon us. The cricket calendar is so relentlessly crowded that you can blink and miss an important series. This one, though, will be hard to ignore. Twenty teams will contest 55 matches across 29 days - almost an exact replica of the 2024 edition…

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7 months ago · 5 likes · 1 comment · Freehit

Beyond Cow Corner: an excellent in-depth piece covering New Zealand’s chances and some selection headaches:

Beyond Cow Corner

T20 World Cup Preview: Black Caps Left With More Questions Than Answers Following India Tune-Up

Did you know that the T20 World Cup starts in two days…

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7 months ago · 7 likes · 2 comments · Beyond Cow Corner

James Rodger’s articles on The Cricket Drop are always worth reading, and his World Cup preview is no exception:

The Cricket Drop

The Cricket Drop 🏏 #44 - Another one of those World Cup things

Good morning, cricket fans. Welcome to this week’s Cricket Drop - edition number 44 - on Wednesday, February 4…

Read more

7 months ago · 10 likes · James Rodger

In his excellent book Hitting Against the Spin, former England analyst Nathan Leamon explains how England’s 2019 World Cup winning side reached the top.

Spoiler alert: it was a ton of data, meticulous planning, and ruthless professionalism.

The contrast with today’s era couldn’t be more stark. You can’t imagine Trevor Bayliss with his feet up on the pavilion balcony doing the crossword. And you can’t imagine Eoin Morgan getting in a fight with a nightclub bouncer the night before a game either.

That’s because Morgan’s lot were a serious cricket team. A team on a mission.

A lack of experience

In our recent article which rated each member of England’s Ashes squad, my co-author noted that England’s best players were those who learned their trade under previous coaches. Those who could take the current messaging with a pinch of salt and a huge dollop of the nous they’d developed previously.

It’s no coincidence that the same is true of England’s ODI squad. The best players – Joe Root, Adil Rashid and Jos Buttler – are the survivors from Bayliss and Morgan’s World Cup winners. I dread to think how badly England will fare when they retire.

The remaining batters seem to have little idea of the tempo needed to win consistently across 50 overs. That in itself isn’t surprising, given the paucity of 50-over cricket they’ve played.

Look at Jacob Bethell – unarguably a huge talent, and a player England can build teams around for the next decade at least. But yesterday he got bogged down in the chase, scoring 15 off 33, before trying to accelerate and getting stumped. Bethell has played just 35 50-over matches in his career, comprising 19 ODIs and 16 domestic List A games.

I sound like a broken record here, but the lack of a quality domestic tournament is a real problem. The likes of Bethell are learning on the job. I’m not here to knock The Hundred, but the domestic 50-over game has been a significant casualty.

Have England got their selection wrong?

Since Brendon McCullum took control of the white ball sides, the ODI batting line-up has converged with the Test line-up.

I’m strongly in favour of that. ODIs are more similar to Test matches than T20s, especially given the increased tempo of the red-ball game nowadays. But England’s Test line-up failed pretty spectacularly in Australia, and the same problems emerged yesterday. Crawley out playing a wafty drive to an outswinger. Harry Brook being Harry Brook.

From a batting perspective, it’s run-a-ball hundreds which are needed to win ODIs, not rapid-fire 30s striking at 180. Just look at Kusal Mendis’s match-winning 93*. England’s batsmen badly need to sort their tempo out.

But the bowling is where the main problem lies.

England must select five proper bowlers. Rehan Ahmed only played yesterday because Will Jacks was unwell. If England had been able to play their intended XI, they’d have needed to find ten overs from the Bethell/Jacks/Root combination.

We only need to look back to September’s home series against South Africa to see the folly of that. At Lord’s in the second ODI, Jacks and Bethell bowled 10 overs between them taking one soft wicket for 112 runs. It’s by no means a stretch to say that’s why England lost the game.

As an aside, Rehan needs to play as much as possible. Adil Rashid can’t go on for ever. Rehan should be shadowing his every move and learning from the master before it’s too late.

England seem obsessed with bowlers who bat a bit. Overton showed why that’s a mistake yesterday. Yes, he tried his best to rescue the game with the bat at the end, but that in no way made up for his 0-66 with the ball, including that momentum-shifting last over which went for 23.

Bowlers win you games. Packing the batting and hoping for the best isn’t working. Like Brydon Carse in the Ashes, Overton has been forced into a role he’s not suited for. He’s a middle overs bowler, not a new ball or a death bowler. They need a proper opening bowler, and a proper death bowler, even on subcontinental tracks where spin is key. Who are the best candidates? Well, nobody really knows, because nobody plays any domestic 50-over cricket any more.

Is Brook the right captain?

In a word, no. At least not on the evidence we have in front of us. Putting his nightclub incident to one side for a moment, I’ve never thought of Brook as captaincy material. He’s consistently shown an inability to adapt to the match situation, both with bat in hand and when leading in the field.

When Jos Buttler gave up the captaincy, there was some debate over his successor. The conclusion was that of the current players, Brook was the only real candidate. But the fact that there was significant talk about bringing in an experienced captain from outside the current squad – James Vince for example – tells you that Brook was more of a default pick than anything else.

Of course his tenure is only young, and he may well grow into the role. But it’s been an inauspicious start. In truth England haven’t had a good white-ball captain since Morgan, and it’s hard to see where the next one is coming from.

The NZ blueprint

Let’s take a moment to contrast England’s ODI form and set-up with that of New Zealand.

The Black Caps achieved a historic series win in India last week, despite being without the services of Kane Williamson, plus their three best ODI bowlers, namely Matt Henry, Mitchell Santner and Jacob Duffy.

Darryl Mitchell’s two hundreds and an 87, all at around a run a ball, were the undisputed highlights with the bat. Spinners Michael Bracewell and Jayden Lennox outbowled their Indian counterparts. And the second-string pace attack performed admirably.

NZ have also won their last ten home ODI series. So how do New Zealand continually punch above their weight? I think it comes down to tactical adaptability, a strong team culture and simply doing the basics well. NZ are rarely flashy, but they also rarely fail to execute their skillsets, and they seem to have the knack of adapting to different conditions.

By contrast England have hugely talented, big-name players, who consistently underperform. They over-attack with the bat in almost all circumstances, which can be spectacular when it comes off on a flat pitch, but often means they’re bowled out cheaply. And again, that word tempo – they just can’t seem to get the hang of pacing an ODI innings. They’re either swinging for the fences or completely in their shell. What happened to rotating the strike and building an innings?

And as far as culture goes, I think recent evidence suggests England have a problem in this department too.

England don’t lack the talent to succeed in ODIs – they lack the discipline. They’ve already shown, under Morgan and Bayliss, that data-led planning, defined roles and proper bowling depth win tournaments. New Zealand’s success is a reminder that you don’t need to be flashy to be effective, just clear-eyed and ruthless about what actually wins 50-over cricket. England know this. They’ve just stopped acting like it matters.

Further reading:

I wholeheartedly recommend Nathan Leamon’s book referenced above, and for an excellent analysis of those better times for English white ball cricket, it’s also worth reading White Hot by Tim Wigmore and Matt Roller.

This article is a collaboration between Ben Brettell (CricInspo) and James Rodger (The Cricket Drop). If you enjoy it, make sure you’re subscribed to both publications. We’d love to have you along for future cricket conversations.

Overall thoughts

Ben: It’s the hope that kills you. For a decade or more, my expectations heading into an Ashes tour have been at rock bottom, and thus the disappointment has been minimal.

This time was meant to be different. Like many others, I bought into the hype and dared to dream. A settled batting line up. The best fast bowling attack we’ve taken in years… etc.

Looking back, I feel naive. Of course, injuries have played their part, notably to Mark Wood. But did I really expect Carse et al to out-bowl Starc and his mates? Come on.

So yes, I’m disappointed in England but also in myself. Nevertheless, I’m not as pessimistic as James and I do think there are some positives we can take out of the tour. The Bazball project isn’t dead, it just needs some refinement, and a few difficult personnel decisions.

James: ‘David Moyes says Manchester United must improve in a number of areas, including passing, creating chances and defending.’ It was hard not to think of Moyes’ ill-fated spell at Old Trafford when watching this England team. There’s probably one thousand ways to improve this England team – but let’s start with three: bowling, batting and fielding.

An unserious side who came into the series half-baked, half-prepared, and half-arsed. We landed in Perth expecting to give the Aussies a good run for their money – but a 4-1 defeat was justified.

The looseness of McCullum and Stokes has helped breathe life into the stuffiness of a type of cricket which faces an existential crisis. But so many who shone for them in the early days – Stokes himself, Jonny Bairstow, Root, Jimmy Anderson, Stuart Broad – were products of the Andy Flower era. They had the fundamental basics, and nous to take the stripped-back messaging and apply it with their intellect.

This England mob look like a side all too willing to have their thinking done for them.

The fallout promises to be ugly. Stokes must stay at all costs, for reasons I explain below, but McCullum and Key – if they are to survive – must realise the best leaders have the self-awareness to surround themselves with those who bring different skills and mindsets to the table.

Zak Crawley – 273 runs at 27.3

Ben: Opening the batting against Mitchell Starc isn’t the easiest gig in world cricket. Crawley had an okay series. A few low scores were inevitable, but when he got in, he mostly looked in control. The frustration is the failure to convert starts into match-winning hundreds.

Sir Alastair Cook said the other day that Crawley is ‘the best player ever to average 30’. If that’s not damning with faint praise, I don’t know what is. Ultimately, he’s frustrating. He can look a million dollars at times, but you know a lapse in concentration is only a ball away.

Has he done enough to retain his place in the team come the summer? Probably, though I do think England should have a look at Durham’s Ben McKinney at some stage soon.

Rating: 6/10

James: Yes, please, Ben. I’ll take McKinney. Like, yesterday. I’ll pay for his flight. Because I’m afraid Zak Crawley is a man destined to forever be Zak Crawley. We learn nothing new about him. He starts a series averaging just under 30, he averages just under 30, he ends it averaging just under 30.

If Shane Warne was here, he’d be branding him a ‘man who has played the same Test 63 times’. He has been blooded by England management to succeed in these specific conditions Down Under. He ends the series as he started it. For me? Time to move on.

Rating: 5/10

Ben Duckett – 202 runs at 20.2

Ben: Disappointing, but not surprising. Australia was never likely to play to his strengths. Duckett is an excellent player of spin, which played next to no part in the series. He’s also great at bullying fast bowlers when there isn’t much movement. Given his diminutive stature and unwillingness to leave the ball outside off, facing tall quicks on bouncy, seaming pitches isn’t his bag.

I’m not at all bothered about him having a few drinks on his day off. I’d probably do the same. But he’d do well to consider the optics (not that kind of optics, Ben…)

Rating: 3/10

James: Boy, does he need a break. And one without alcohol. I tell you what he doesn’t need: the World Cup in four weeks’ time.

Duckett’s trip will probably be remembered more for the Noosa video than anything he did with bat or ball. The struggles that crept in at the back end of the English summer followed him around, and he never really looked like the free-scoring Bazball poster boy of late 2022. He nicked off to some decent balls, spilled a few chances in the field, and generally looked out of sync.

Rating: 2/10

Jacob Bethell – 205 runs at 51.25

James: The hot, young blonde thing came good. Bethell showed why England should have made the call seven months ago. Class, composure and reassurance in the second innings at the MCG with 40 from 46 balls, and then just a stunning knock at the SCG. Proper Test match batting. Even the kit looks better on him.

Too early to seize the vice-captaincy from Brook and hand it him? Yes, of course it is, James. But that wouldn’t stop me.

Rating: 7/10

Ben: Showed everyone why England have fast-tracked him. The phrase ‘generational talent’ is overused, but in this case the hype is clearly justified. The only mistake was not picking him from the start of the English summer.

He strolled into the team like he’d just come straight out of a Noosa nightclub, which in fact he had, and then played with such calmness and clarity, and looked like he belonged. It reminded me of Kevin Pietersen in 2005. The composure he showed in the second innings at Sydney was astounding. England have a serious player here, one they can build teams around for a decade or more.

Rating: 10/10

Ollie Pope – 125 runs at 20.83

Ben: It’s easy to characterise Pope as this generation’s Graeme Hick – awesome at county level and against lesser Test teams, exposed against the best. But I wonder if the Stokes-McCullum set up has been damaging for him. His thinking has looked muddled, as if he knows he should be defending but forces himself to attack.

I feel sorry for him – he’s given his all to the team and done everything that’s been asked of him, except the one thing he can’t do – make runs at three. I can’t help thinking he could’ve been a great number five or six in the mould of Ian Bell. But England needed a three, and the ever-willing Pope put his hand up for the job.

Has his career been sacrificed on the altar of Bazball?

Rating: 2/10

James: Pope’s time at 3 – at long last – is done. A batsman who was told consistently that driving on the up in Australia simply isn’t done, and who went about doing it anyway. His 46 in the first innings at Perth was as good as it got, as he continuously fell to soft dismissals, with the air of a man whose Test career is at end.

Part of me hopes I’m wrong. The human in me sees Pope – and his willingness to deputise anywhere, and do anything, for the team – and is willing him to prove me wrong. Reports suggest it was Pope spending hours giving Bethell throw downs ahead of the Melbourne Test. A consummate professional to the end.

Rating: 3/10

Joe Root - 400 runs at 44.4

James: Finally. Finally. He got the monkey off his back – and in some style. That first Ashes hundred in Australia, followed by a second, showed Root as his fluent best. Both were innings that had Justin Langer and Ricky Ponting on commentary purring. I’ll absolutely adore seeing him and Bethell at the crease over these next few years.

Sadly, he can’t score higher here – a 7 is the best I can do – because aside from those two tons, the Yorkshireman was actually fairly quiet. Two ducks and a next highest score of just 39.

Rating: 7/10

Ben: On the face of it, England’s best batsman had a decent series, second only to Travis Head in the run scoring table. But aside from the two tons, he scored 102 in his remaining eight knocks. That’s not consistent enough.

At times he looked so determined to dig in that he dug himself into a hole. The knowledge that he was having to carry the entire batting line-up proved too much of a burden. Like James, I can’t wait to see him batting with Jacob Bethell in the years to come.

Rating: 7/10

Harry Brook – 358 runs at 39.77

James: Christ. Where to begin? Poor decision-making on the field, particularly in Brisbane, and a lack of maturity at the crease, has been mirrored by his conduct off the grass. Apparently Brook was close to being sacked as white-ball captain after an altercation with a nightclub bouncer in New Zealand. He was out in the early hours before an international game in which he scored 6.

A lot of the reports around Noosa were illustrated with pictures of Brook on the pints. A vice-captain? No. A white-ball captain? Absolutely not. Out of everybody, Brook most represents the need for this England culture to change. Imagine him being coached by Andy Flower. I think the Zimbabwean’s head would be on Mars.

But the ceiling remains high. He’ll surely be disappointed with a series average under 40 and no hundreds.

Rating: 4/10

Ben: The most frustrating player for me, by far. All the talent in the world but seemingly only three brain cells to go with it. I’d be here all day if I listed the times he threw his wicket away. Is he even trying, you wonder. Does he even care? He’s a wonderful player but desperately needs some game awareness, and to take responsibility as a senior player.

He’s undroppable, obviously, but his dismissals here and his off-field conduct surely deserve a stern talking to at the very least. On the captaincy front I agree with James, he’s never looked suitable to me.

Rating: 5/10

Ben Stokes – 184 runs at 18.4, 15 wickets at 25.1

Ben: Carried the weight of the world on his shoulders. Largely poor with the bat, aside from a couple of typically determined rearguard knocks. Looked England’s best bowler at times, though he captained himself poorly in my view. He should’ve taken the new ball on a number of occasions, but didn’t.

His captaincy was poor by his usual standards. Intelligent fields and never letting the game drift have previously been the hallmarks of his leadership on the field, but both went missing here.

I’m hoping he stays on as captain, largely because I think Brook would be a disaster. I do wonder whether it’s time for him to move down the order - he’s much more of a bowling all-rounder nowadays and should think about batting at seven or eight.

Rating: 5.5/10

James: By his own admission, Stokes had a pretty scrappy series as captain. With the bat, it never really clicked, aside from that typically stubborn, knuckle-dragging 83 in Adelaide where he basically refused to get out on principle.

The bowling was a different matter. He was excellent, rolling on exactly as he left off in the summer. That said, there were plenty of moments when runs were leaking everywhere and you were screaming at the telly for him to throw himself the ball sooner. He wants to carry on as captain and, frankly, he should – partly because he’s still the best man for the job, and partly because the alternatives cupboard is looking pretty bare.

Rating: 5/10

Jamie Smith – 211 runs at 23.44

Ben: From generational talent to potential pariah in five Tests. Woeful with the bat, including that dismissal to Marnus Labuschagne, but his keeping was the biggest disappointment. Dropped catches galore, and a completely passive attitude behind the stumps. You need your keeper to bring the energy, but Smith showed up at the party empty-handed. This wasn’t helped by the cruel juxtaposition with the outstanding Alex Carey.

It looks like he’s already lost his place in England’s white ball squads. His Test place may follow. I’m desperate for England to get a look at one or both Rew brothers, and perhaps my wish will be granted come the summer.

Rating: 0/10

James: I am amazed at all the player ratings articles giving him higher than this. Possibly the worst performance from a wicketkeeper I’ve ever seen. Poor decision-making with the bat was compounded by utterly abject ability behind the stumps. I wouldn’t be averse to giving Smith some time out of the limelight and Pope the gloves.

Put into stark context by Alex Carey, bravely standing up to Scott Boland, as the Aussie nailed down his place as the best keeper on Earth.

Rating: 1/10

Will Jacks – 145 runs at 20.71, 6 wickets at 53.66

James: He never really did the job he was picked for. His runs with the bat didn’t make up for what England missed by not having another bowler in the side.

He’s got the odd magic ball in him (just ask Steve Smith after the SCG) but the control just isn’t there, mainly because bowling isn’t really his main gig. He chipped in with a few useful little knocks with the bat, but also served up one truly awful shot in Sydney that had proper head-in-hands written all over it.

His fielding ranged from a one-handed screamer to get Smith at The Gabba to downright grim, with a horror drop at deep midwicket that handed Travis Head a life in Sydney.

Rating: 5/10

Ben: A really puzzling selection. It’s a return to the bad old days of ‘bits-and-pieces’ players making the England team.

His inclusion in the squad made sense as cover for Stokes - someone who can get through a few overs and bat in the top seven. His inclusion in the XI as a spin bowling all-rounder made no sense whatsoever.

Showed application with the bat on occasion - notably in the partnership with his captain in Brisbane - but was profligate on others. Offered neither control nor threat with the ball, which was entirely unsurprising.

Rating: 4/10

Brydon Carse - 22 wickets at 30.31, 99 runs at 11.00

Ben: Carse is an admirable cricketer. The effort he puts in is almost tangible, and as a spectator you’re never in any doubt that he’s trying his heart out.

You’d have got decent odds about him ending the series as England’s top wicket-taker though. And the numbers don’t tell the full story. He bowled a few tight spells, but aside from that sprayed it everywhere.

My view is that Carse - and by extension England - suffered from a lack of clarity over his role. It’s abundantly clear that he’s not a new ball bowler, so why was he forced into that job? And with the old ball, do England want him to be a Neil Wagner-style enforcer, banging it in short, or a Simon Jones-style reverse swing merchant, pitching it up with late movement? Someone needs to decide what his job is, and remember to tell the poor chap.

Rating: 6.5/10

James: ‘Keeps running in’, they say. Well, sometimes I wish he’d stop. But for all his faults, you simply have to take your hat off to him for his durability. The lack of consistency was obvious though. Adelaide was where the spotlight really hit him, with his pitch map all over the place.

Carse finishes top of the wickets chart, sure, but you’d struggle to find many people who’d say he was England’s best bowler. He’s a grafter and you can never fault the effort, but it took him far too long to find the right length, and he never really looked comfortable with the new ball. In truth, the wickets column made his series look better than it actually was. That makes it all the more disappointing given how good he’d been in New Zealand and Pakistan last winter.

One unbeaten 39 aside, he didn’t offer much with the bat either.

Rating: 6/10

Gus Atkinson – 6 wickets at 47.33, 73 runs at 14.6

Ben: Not every fast bowler needs to be a snarling bull terrier, but Atkinson displayed all the aggression of Winnie the Pooh here. Though maybe Eeyore is a better analogy, with that gloomy, ‘woe-is-me’ expression as yet another drive whistled past him to the boundary. I had high hopes for Gus this series, but he looked short of rhythm and frankly, not up for the fight. His place in the first-choice XI isn’t a given after this display.

Rating: 2/10

James: With the benefit of hindsight, it was always a massive ask for Atkinson to rock up and thrive in conditions that have chewed up and spat out plenty of England seamers before him. Atkinson probably deserved better than his numbers suggest, but more worrying for me was his demeanour.

Stuart Broad was bang-on to savage his body language – and his batting was infuriating. Of course there are mitigating circumstances. Of course he’s a tailender. But can you imagine Scott Boland or Michael Neser playing that limp shot in Brisbane?

Rating: 3/10

Josh Tongue – 18 wickets at 20.11, 15 runs at 5.00

Ben: I said before each of the first two Tests that Tongue’s absence was puzzling. Then he arrived with a bang to finish fourth in the series wicket table despite only playing three matches.

He has a knack of taking wickets when the team needs them, breaking open crucial partnerships and blowing away the tail. He’s also dismissed Steve Smith pretty much every time he’s bowled to him. What’s not to like? Along with Bethell he’s one of very few players to depart Australia having enhanced his reputation.

Rating: 8/10

James: Nailed on starter now. A superb series with the ball. God, where has he been?

He had to sit and wait until Adelaide, with Atkinson the one making way, but once he finally got his chance, he made it count straight away, grabbing four wickets in Australia’s second innings. That was just the warm-up. In Melbourne he ran riot with a five-fer, and the Player of the Match. Sydney? Six wickets, while his teammates couldn’t bowl two deliveries within the same postcode.

I pray they tread lightly with him. The news he has been called up to the white-ball squads worries me. Like Mark Wood, Jamie Smith and Ben Duckett, he is in danger of being broken physically and mentally.

Rating: 7/10

Jofra Archer – 9 wickets at 27.11, 102 runs at 25.5

James: One of the few England bowlers to think for themselves. That blockbuster spell which had us all salivating in Perth was followed by three consecutive Tests – and chipping in helpfully with the bat.

His blow-up with Stokes was something of nothing, and just showed a man who – despite all the idiotic criticism – is fiercely passionate about Test cricket. Another bright spot from a horror-show of a tour. Five-fer to remove three of Australia’s top five in the third Test, and a helpful 38 and half-century in Brisbane and Adelaide respectively.

Rating: 7/10

Ben: I was one of the ‘idiots’ (thanks James) who questioned Archer’s attitude after the second Test. But he proved me wrong in the third.

Archer bowled with control, and no little venom, and probably deserved more wickets than he took. He also showed the likes of Carse and Atkinson what application with the bat looks like.

As James says, a rare bright spot for England, and hopefully his body will allow him to play Tests for the next few years. It’s easy to forget he’s only 30.

Rating: 7.5/10

Mark Wood – 0 wickets, 4 runs

James: I fear this is the end. Woefully mismanaged by an England set-up who wanted him to bowl us to victory in a World Cup we were never going to win, Wood now looks like yesterday’s man. It feels this could be the setback that ends an England career beset by them.

A massive shame, given the 36-year-old is the England cricketer I find most likeable. He’d be valuable – for morale, as much as anything else – in future squads, but will find it very hard to find a way back from this.

Rating: 2/10

Ben: This was meant to be it – Wood and Archer tearing in and making mincemeat of the Australian batting line up. Sadly the dream was short-lived, with Wood sending down just 11 overs before injury struck. Likely a sad end for a great career, and as James says, an enormously likeable bloke.

Rating: 3/10

Matthew Potts – 0 wickets, 19 runs

James: A cricketer I feel sorry for. I remember him being England’s best seamer versus India at Edgbaston back in 2022. It was always a brutal ask to get thrown in for the final Test in Sydney and instantly deliver, and Potts never really stood a chance. He went around the park in the first innings, coughing up 141 runs without a wicket and looking completely shell-shocked in the process. He didn’t even get a look in during the second innings. About the only bright moment was a sharp catch to get rid of Weatherald.

Rating: 1/10

Ben: Nothing to add to James’s comments. Set up to fail, and did so spectacularly.

Rating: 0/10

Thanks for reading! This was a joint effort from Ben Brettell (CricInspo) and James Rodger (The Cricket Drop). If you’d like to keep following our work, please do subscribe to both newsletters. And if you have any ideas for future collaborations, please get in touch!

England must be wondering what might have been, after their quite astonishing two-day victory in Melbourne.

This could so easily have been a decider, if – for example – Perth had gone their way.

But there’s still plenty to play for. Beyond pride, and the World Test Championship points, a 3-2 scoreline would be England’s second-best result down under since the mid-80s. On the other hand, 4-1 would increase the pressure for regime change. Media noise about Brendon McCullum’s future hasn’t gone away after Melbourne.

Team news

England

Gus Atkinson is the latest fast bowler to fall by the wayside, bringing Matty Potts in line for an Ashes debut. I wrote before the series started that he’s the type of line and length bowler to succeed on modern Australian pitches, and my opinion hasn’t changed. I’m hoping he takes the new ball alongside Josh Tongue, who now finds himself leading the attack, having not even been selected for the first two tests.

Shoaib Bashir has been named in the 12-man squad, but I’d be surprised if he made the XI.

Australia

After a whole series of speculation, this will be Usman Khawaja’s farewell Test match after 88 games in the Baggy Green. It looks a wise decision from Khawaja to call time himself and retire on his own terms. At 39 I’d be surprised if he was selected again.

So Australia’s top six looks set to stay the same as in Melbourne. Doubts over Marnus Labuschagne’s form are resurfacing with a series average below 25, but that’s likely a debate to be had after the series finale.

The other player with big question marks is Cameron Green. He might lose his place to Beau Webster here, though given the selectors have shown willingness to stick with him through thick and thin so far, he may be given another chance to make an impact.

Todd Murphy could come in for Jhye Richardson. There are doubts over how big a role spin might play, but if Australia leave Murphy on the sidelines it will be the first time they’ve lined up at Sydney without a frontline spinner since 1887. We won’t know until the toss.

Ground and conditions

The big unknown here is the pitch. After the MCG pitch was rated ‘unsatisfactory’, the curator Matt Page was wheeled out to face the media for the groundsman equivalent of naughty boy nets. Never has 10mm of grass caused so much controversy.

The SCG will be under enormous pressure to prepare a pitch which sees the game last longer than two days, not least to avoid another seven-figure loss for Cricket Australia. But photos which emerged over the past couple of days seem to show yet another green-top.

Apparently the plan is to leave 6mm of grass, but given last year’s 7mm led to a two-and-a-half-day game against India, we could easily see another Test played on fast-forward. If I had to guess, I’d say lots of early movement followed by a gradual flattening from day three, if we get that far.

The last five first-inning scores at the SCG read 185, 313, 475/4d, 416/8d and 338 (most recent first). Usman Khawaja clearly loves his home ground, with 195 not out three years ago and twin hundreds the year before. His average at the ground stands at 87.5.

Betting angles

Match result

Once again pre-toss odds of 4/6 about Australia and 9/4 England make little appeal. Australia are the right favourites but we’ve seen that this England team is a better outfit when the pressure is off.

I’ll be keeping a close watch in-running, and will put up an exchange bet on Australia at odds of 2.1 in the hope it gets matched at some stage. The ideal scenario here is Australia batting first and losing two or three wickets to the new ball, before the middle order steady the ship.

There’s some rain around during the first couple of days, but not enough to make the draw interesting at 7/1.

Top first innings bat

I’ll revert to my strategy from earlier in the series, expecting early wickets. Numbers six and seven can often top-score on this type of surface.

For Australia, the dependable Alex Carey is a must bet at 17/2, and I wouldn’t put anyone off a couple of haymakers on Michael Neser (33/1) and Mitchell Starc (50/1). Both are capable with bat in hand, and a top-order collapse could make those prices look big.

For England, I’m minded to stick with Harry Brook, purely because it’s hard to see a batsman of his talent ending the series without a match-defining score. He’ll be desperate to do so and is a 4/1 shot at present.

Top first innings bowler

With Australia’s best two bowlers likely to be tired, I’ll leave this market alone for the hosts. On the England front, Josh Tongue appeals as the most threatening bowler, but the market is well aware and he’s easy to pass over at skinny odds of 5/2. Matty Potts will be raring to go, and is still available at 9/2 at the time of writing. That’s worth a small investment.

Other markets

Usman Khawaja is 16/1 to take home a player of the match award in his final Test. I suspect it wouldn’t take a huge performance for him to win this for sentimental reasons, and his home ground record means he could make some big runs in any case. He’s worth a small bet at the price.

Recommended bets

• Alex Carey, top Australia first-innings bat: 17/2

• Michael Neser, top Australia first-innings bat: 33/1

• Mitchell Starc, top Australia first-innings bat: 50/1

• Harry Brook, top England first-innings bat: 4/1

• Matty Potts, top England first-innings bowler: 9/2

• Usman Khawaja, player of the match: 16/1

• Look to back Australia at odds-against in-running

Conclusion

This feels like a Test best approached with patience rather than too much conviction. England have shown in Melbourne that, freed from the weight of consequence, they’re capable of matching their opponents, especially if the surface proves tricky. Australia, meanwhile, are managing bodies, form and farewells rather than operating at full tilt. That narrows the gap, but it doesn’t remove the volatility.

From a betting perspective, that makes blanket pre-match positions unattractive. The pitch remains an unknown, the bowling attacks look tired on both sides, and England still have a habit of letting good situations slip. The value is more likely to appear once the game starts to take shape – particularly if England make early inroads or Australia find themselves briefly on the back foot.