Two weeks ago, Bitcoin recorded one of its strongest bullish weekly candles since early 2023. That single move instantly shifted the dominant market narrative from extreme panic to overwhelming optimism. However, as experienced cycle investors, we know that one candle does not make a trend.

Bitcoin failed to post a follow-through bullish weekly close. Instead, price action formed a classic Doji star candle, signaling an intense battle between buyers and sellers. Sellers stepped in aggressively, rejecting Bitcoin at our primary target range of $80,000 to $82,000. See the red arrow on the chart below.

As long-term cycle investors, we do not react to noise or trade out of curiosity. We execute with discipline. Now, let me explain what it means and what it tells us about where this market is heading next.

The Weekly Doji: A Battlefield, Not a Buy Signal

The Doji Star candle that formed last week is not just another bar on the chart. It marks a real standoff between buyers and sellers. It captures a week when both sides (Bulls & Bears) fought hard, and neither won decisively. The opening and closing prices were almost identical. At first, the price moved higher during the week, then lower, but ended up almost exactly where it started. See the arrow on the chart below.

The weekly Doji candle on the chart above indicates that momentum has stalled. This doesn’t mean the rally is definitively over. It means the market needs time to digest what just happened. And as cycle-based investors, we must respect that process rather than chase it. Let’s see how Bitcoin performs in the coming days. You can learn more inside the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

The Weekly EMA Structure and Our Key Resistance Zone

Looking at the chart below, the weekly EMA structure tells a more nuanced story, one that’s genuinely encouraging in some ways and sobering in others.

Let’s begin with the encouraging part:

Looking at the chart below, Bitcoin has broken back above the 200-week EMA (blue) and has held that level for two consecutive weeks. This is important because institutional investors closely watch this level, and sustained price action above it has historically shifted their sentiment from cautious to constructive. 

Interestingly, the 20-week EMA (yellow) is also beginning to curl upward — a sign that the intermediate-term momentum is improving. See the chart below.

Now, let’s discuss the sobering part:

The 100-week EMA (red band) on the chart above sits directly at the $80,000–$82,960 resistance zone and is acting as a ceiling on the current move. Bitcoin has not yet broken above it. And every time the price has pressed into that zone over the past two weeks, sellers have appeared and pushed it back.

Until Bitcoin decisively closes a weekly candle above $82,960, I am staying cautious — that level marks the boundary between an advanced bear market relief rally and a confirmed trend reversal. We have not crossed that boundary yet. See the BTC/USD daily chart below.

The Bullish Divergence — and Why It Cannot Be Ignored

Here’s the part of this analysis that genuinely shifts the market sentiment toward the bulls — and it’s clearly visible on the chart below.

Now, look at the weekly momentum oscillator. During the recent pullback from the August high, Bitcoin’s price printed a lower low compared to the June bottom. But the momentum oscillator printed a higher low during the same period. See the green arrows on the chart below.

Yes, the price went lower, but momentum did not follow. That is a classic bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe, and weekly divergences carry far more weight than those visible on a 4H chart.

If Bitcoin closes decisively above $79,750 on a daily candle and stays above both the 50-week and 100-week EMAs, my bearish caution would shift to extreme bullish conviction. That close would confirm the divergence and provide bulls with the structural evidence needed to justify new positions with confidence. But we aren’t there yet.

Has Our Golden Buy Zone Below $50k Been Invalidated?

Many subscribers have asked me this since the August rally, and I want to address it directly. The answer is no. It has not been invalidated. What may have changed is the timing.

Here is how I’m thinking about it.

If Bitcoin holds above the 200-week EMA — currently around $72,485 — on any pullback from the current resistance zone, the market structure will shift to a constructive bias.

Yes, a retest of that level (200-week EMA), followed by a firm hold, would represent a higher-quality accumulation opportunity than we saw in June.  See the red arrow on the chart below. The $70,000–$72,500 zone, where the 200-week EMA now sits, becomes our revised near-term accumulation window if the market pulls back and defends it.

The circled area at the 200-week EMA on the chart below shows exactly where this potential retest zone lies. Indeed, the 200-week EMA has historically been one of the strongest long-term support levels in Bitcoin’s history.

And if Bitcoin pulls back to that level and holds, accumulating there is a high-conviction decision consistent with the cycle framework. See the chart below.

Our deeper Golden Buy Zone below $50,000 remains a possibility — but the likelihood of reaching it now depends on either a broader macro shock or a more prolonged distribution phase at the current resistance. The cycle thesis is unchanged. The timeline may have shifted toward late 2026 or early 2027, which is entirely consistent with what we have communicated for months.

Next, let’s break it down on the daily chart.

The Daily Chart: Overbought Signal Firing Again

Zooming in on the daily chart below, the short-term picture raises an important warning flag that every active trader and swing position holder should see.

The black circle on the daily momentum indicator indicates that Bitcoin has entered overbought territory and is flashing sell signals. In the past, we saw significant pullbacks each time the signal appeared. See the circled areas on the chart.

The third circle, on the right edge of the chart, shows the same overbought sell signal firing now. This is not a coincidence. It is the same recurring pattern, visible to anyone watching the daily chart closely.

The 4-hour chart also shows Bitcoin consolidating in what I’d describe as a micro distribution phase — shrinking candle bodies, diminishing momentum, and sellers absorbing every push toward the $80,000–$82,960 resistance zone. See the chart below.

If Bitcoin loses the 20- and 50-day EMAs as support on the 4-hour chart, a retest of the 200-day EMA near $72,500 becomes the next likely target.

Please note that the overbought momentum reading on the daily chart does not mean Bitcoin is about to collapse. It indicates that the risk of opening new long positions at current levels is elevated — and that the market is not offering a favorable entry for fresh capital right now.

What to Do With All of This

Let me be direct about where I stand and what the framework suggests for different types of investors.

If you have already secured positions in the $58k–$64k range, hold your core positions. The weekly structure is improving, the bullish divergence is real, and a breakout above $82,960 — if it occurs — would materially strengthen the bull case and open the door to $90,000 and beyond. Again, monitor the $80,000–$82,960 zone, as discussed in the previous update.

If you took partial profits in the $80,000 to $81,000 zone, wait for a clear break above the supply zone before deploying fresh capital and buying on bullish strength. Otherwise, you may buy near a resistance zone before the price reverses to the downside.

If you’re waiting to deploy fresh capital: Do not chase price into a resistance zone where the daily momentum is overbought and two prior identical signals produced major pullbacks.

Wait for one of two developments: either a confirmed daily close above $79,750 that validates the bullish divergence, or a healthy pullback toward the $70,000–$72,500 zone where the 200-week EMA offers major structural support. Both scenarios offer significantly better risk-to-reward than buying at current levels.

For the longer-term cycle view: Our Q4 deeper correction thesis remains on the table. Whether it materializes depends entirely on how Bitcoin resolves the current resistance zone. A weekly close below $76,600 would reopen the path to lower prices and ultimately to the deeper final accumulation window.

So, stay patient, stay liquid, and maintain the discipline that positioned you correctly through the bear market.

The market will give a clear direction soon. Our job is not to force a trade before the direction is confirmed — it is to be positioned and ready for either outcome when clarity arrives. For now, let’s focus on the 4-hour chart and the $80,000-$83,000 sell wall. Whatever happens there will determine the next phase for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Thanks for reading.

If you want to learn more about our Golden Buy Zones and cycle thesis, click here to get started.

— Jonas, Crypto Big Stories

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.

For detailed accumulation zones, cycle timing, and asset-specific targets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and high-conviction altcoins heading into the pre-halving recovery rally — the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint has it all covered.

Click Here to Access Your Copy.

Today, I want to walk you through a tiny meme coin that’s been on my watchlist for more than five months. You might be thinking, “Jonas, you’ve kept a meme coin on your watchlist for five months?”

Yes, you heard me right. Most of us are quick to dismiss meme coins as worthless assets for gamblers. I understand the instinct because I’ve been there too. Look, I’m not endorsing the meme coin sector, but I also don’t believe you should ignore every small-cap meme project.

Sometimes, a tiny meme coin can deliver a life-changing return if you happen to find the right one early. After watching this project for more than five months, I think it’s worth a closer look. (See the 4H potential breakout chart below.)

This project has a few structural characteristics that set it apart from the average meme-coin launch. This is why I think it deserves a proper breakdown, especially for degen investors willing to take a small, speculative position in hopes of a much larger return.

Let me be clear before we go any further. This is a high-risk, highly volatile, low-liquidity asset. It is not a core holding, and I would not treat it like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

So, if you decide to build a position, use only risk capital you can afford to lose entirely. I’ll break down the chart setup, potential buy zones, and what I see in the fundamentals. I’ll also explain why this project has remained on my watchlist for more than five months.

Now, upgrade your subscription to unlock the full analysis and the rest of this series as we track small-cap opportunities ahead of the next cycle. Let’s get into it.

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Bitcoin has had a massive pump over the past few days, and people are getting greedy again. For weeks, the market stayed quiet, and retail interest was low. Now excitement is back, and people are ready to take bigger risks than they were just two weeks ago.

Now, here’s something to think about: for weeks, you had the chance to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin and altcoins while the market traded below the 200-week EMA. But you were fearful then. So why are you suddenly eager to buy now, as Bitcoin approaches a potential major take-profit target? See the yellow arrow on the chart below.

If you bought the July low between $58,000 and $60,000 with us and positioned for a deeper correction that hasn’t arrived yet, stay calm and hold your positions. Rather than panic-buying at this point, be willing to lock in profits as BTC approaches the $80,000–$82,000 supply zone. However, if you’re willing to hold through the next potential correction, you have nothing to worry about either way.

Before you say I don’t care about profit-taking right now, let me ask: if you weren’t planning to take partial profits on this rally, what exactly was the point of celebrating it? Look, I’m not here to break bad news, but I think it’s premature to call the cycle’s bottom at this point. We could see a pullback at the $82k zone. So, watch out!

You may be asking, Jonas…

Are You Bearish? Somehow, Yes, I am.

Honestly, I’m cautious here because this entire move could turn into a classic bull trap. Yes, this rally could tempt you to deploy sidelined capital back into the market before the reversal. This is why I wouldn’t recommend deploying fresh capital at this level.

Personally, I’m maintaining my bearish thesis through the end of the year. I expect the market to produce another wave of massive correction once this current phase is exhausted. And if that correction never comes? Then we have years ahead of us to ride the bull run and secure better entries on confirmation.

The problem is that most investors are impatient. They love chasing trends, and that impatience is exactly what causes people to buy tops instead of bottoms.

But you are different. You are a long-term investor. And that identity is what allows you to stay calm without it shaking your entire strategy. Could we be wrong about our cycle thesis? Maybe, maybe not. Time will tell. But don’t chase the trend at a potential resistance zone.

»»» Before you continue: If you’re still asking “When is the best time to buy Bitcoin?” click here to claim the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint, which teaches the accumulation framework this entire newsletter is built around.

The 100-Week EMA Resistance Level

Bitcoin is currently soaring, and it can feel like this move is unstoppable. But you see, we’ve been here before. See the chart below.

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Bitcoin finally broke above $72,000 after months of grinding sideways between $60,000 and $64,000. Bravo! That was a strong move, and I’m not going to pretend it doesn’t look impressive on a chart.

But before you get excited, I want to walk you through exactly what happened, why it happened, and why — as long-term, cycle-based investors — this single move hasn’t changed our positioning at all.

Let’s start with…

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Hello, investors.

You’ve probably read plenty of articles about how to build wealth during a crypto bull market by investing in different assets. But how many of those articles explain how to protect the profits you make?

You see, making money in crypto is one thing. Keeping it is another.

I’ve seen new investors turn a few hundred dollars into thousands by getting into low-cap coins early, only to watch most of those paper gains disappear because they didn’t have a plan for taking profits.

Sure, crypto can reward you quickly, but it can also take those gains back just as quickly.

So, if you want to maximize your returns, you have to control your greed and follow a clear exit strategy. Otherwise, you risk giving back your gains to the market and watching a profitable position turn into a painful lesson.

In this article, I’ll share practical strategies you can use to protect your gains during the next bull market while we continue building our positions. I’ll also show you some of the common mistakes that can turn large paper profits into losses.

Now, let’s look at how you can maximize your returns during the next bull run, decide when to take profits, and avoid the greed that can wipe out months or even years of unrealized gains.

Let’s get into it.

Stop Worrying About the Next 100x Altcoin. Do This Instead.

I understand why you’re eager to find the next crypto gem that could help you retire early and live the life you want.

But here’s the truth: you don’t earn a 100x return because you deserve it. You earn it because you found the right asset at the right time and held it through an extraordinary run.

Think about those who bought DOGE, SHIBA INU, LUNA, SOL, and other tokens when their market caps were tiny.

They didn’t make life-changing money because they had a better understanding of the market. They were mostly lucky, and the market rewarded them.

Even so, not everyone who rode those waves to the top locked in their profits. Greed kept many from realizing their gains. I have been a victim, too. Much more about that later.

Here’s the thing: In a bull market, your ability to control greed determines how much of your unrealized profit you can keep.

And if you’ve experienced a full-blown crypto bull market, you know how easy it can feel to make money when prices keep rising. You don’t do much. You buy, hold, and watch the numbers on your screen climb.

Before you know it, you might start giving financial advice to everyone around you.

You’d show your friends and relatives your unrealized gains. You’d tell them about the coins you bought. You might even convince someone to sell other assets and invest the proceeds in crypto.

We’ve seen this behavior in previous bull markets. And it’s more likely to repeat soon.

Now, here’s the good part…

If you have the discipline to accumulate Bitcoin and a few carefully selected altcoins during the next major capitulation, you could build a portfolio that grows significantly in the next bull market, hopefully 2027-2029.

But the problem starts when your portfolio becomes profitable.

When prices rise rapidly, we often lose the financial discipline we had during the bear market. We start spending more, taking bigger risks, and buying things we never needed in the first place.

Some may even end up throwing money at NFTs and other speculative assets, believing prices can only go higher.

Here’s one thing I have learned. Bear markets usually teach you to be careful with your money. Bull markets test whether you can stay that way.

Yes, you can make money quickly during a bull market, but greed can make it difficult to take your profits.

Your mind will keep telling you to hold on a little longer because the next leg up could make you even richer. Then another target appears. Then another. Before you know it, the market turns bearish, and your impressive paper gains start to melt away. Many of us experienced it firsthand during the most recent bull market. Don’t fall into that trap.

Let me ask you this: did you take profits when Bitcoin traded above $125,000, or did you buy more?

The market has been quiet for months. People aren’t as excited about crypto as they once were. And we don’t see as many influencers predicting Bitcoin will hit $500,000 by 2027.

But it’s not always so. During a bull run, taking profits can make you an easy target. Some people will call you a paper-handed investor for selling while prices are still rising. Don’t blindly follow that advice.

You see, nothing in crypto guarantees that today’s winner will remain tomorrow’s winner. This is why I build my portfolio around Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few carefully selected altcoins.

My 2023–2025 bull market portfolio didn’t deliver the explosive returns I experienced during the 2020–2021 bull run. But it was balanced enough to help me stay disciplined when the market eventually turned bearish.

The market can give you life-changing gains. Your job is to make sure you actually keep some of them.

Learn From the Mistakes of Others

We’ve seen people invest $1,000 in a crypto project, watch it grow to more than $30,000, and then see its value collapse to less than $500 because they never took profits.

That may sound hard to believe, but anyone who invested in Terra Luna early enough can tell you how quickly a small investment turned into a fortune. During the 2020-2021 bull run, some of us turned as little as $1,000 into more than $100,000 in LUNA at its peak.

But when Terra Luna collapsed, many investors lost their life savings. Some even went into debt because they kept holding and continued taking risks as the market turned against them.

»»» To learn more about our cycle-bottom accumulation phase, check out the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

My Personal Experience

I’m not sharing this story because I regret investing in LUNA. I’m sharing it because I want you to learn from the mistake I made during the 2021 bull market. That experience changed how I invest. Today, I focus mainly on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few carefully selected altcoins.

During the 2021 bull market, I bought some Terra Luna (LUNA) and watched my small investment turn into a fortune.

I felt like a genius.

Then I started making unrealistic price predictions.

I followed advice from crypto influencers who told us to hold our LUNA even after the price climbed from around $0.96 to over $100. I became greedy and refused to take profits while the market was giving me the opportunity.

I had a $500 price target in mind. I imagined all the things I could do with that money, from vacations in Dubai to a Jungle Safari.

Looking back, I probably wouldn’t have taken profits even if LUNA had reached my target. Greed had already taken control.

Unfortunately, I wasn’t alone.

Even near the market’s peak, some investors continued staking their LUNA on various platforms to earn more rewards instead of taking some profits off the table.

Then everything changed.

LUNA reached nearly $120, setting a new all-time high. Shortly after, concerns about the Terra ecosystem triggered panic among investors.

Selling accelerated.

Investors rushed to exit their positions, and the price began to collapse.

Eventually, I sold half of my LUNA at around $50.

You might say I didn’t lose money because I bought LUNA for less than a dollar. But wait until you hear what happened next.

Avoid Reinvesting Your Profits During a Bull Market

After selling half of my LUNA holdings at about $50, I was tempted to reinvest the proceeds when LUNA crashed to $10. I thought I was getting a bargain, but I wasn’t.

The token continued to collapse, eventually falling to around $0.00001675. The profits I had made disappeared, and what remained of my position became almost worthless. See the chart below.

Terra later rebranded the token to LUNA Classic (LUNC), a reminder of how quickly unrealized profit can evaporate when you don’t take some of it off the table.

This happens in almost every bull cycle.

Many low-cap tokens eventually lose momentum, collapse, or disappear from major exchanges. I experienced this firsthand when some of the low-cap tokens I gambled on became nearly worthless.

So, if your portfolio is down and you regret not selling when the market gave you the opportunity, don’t beat yourself up. From my experience, you need time in this market to understand how difficult it can be to protect your gains.

You don’t have to learn that lesson the hard way. Learn from my experience and prepare to take profits when the next bull market presents the opportunity.

You might think you’re not greedy right now because you haven’t made a 10x or 20x return on your crypto investments. Trust me, the psychology changes when you see your portfolio multiply in value within a few months.

You need to experience the euphoria of a bull market to understand how easily greed can take over. Today, I invest differently.

I’m more disciplined and patient. During bear markets, I focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few carefully selected altcoins because established assets often recover before the broader market does.

I’m preparing for the next cycle instead of chasing every token that starts moving.

And if you want to understand my bear-market accumulation strategy and why I’m not bothered by the current market phase, check out the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

Final Thoughts

Making profits in cryptocurrency requires careful planning, strategy, discipline, and smart decision-making skills. I hope this article inspires you to prepare for the bull market and learn how to maximize gains.

To learn more about our cycle-bottom accumulation phase, check out the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

Remember to invest wisely.

This phase of the market requires patience and strict capital preservation. Yet many investors are already hunting for the next 100x altcoin, ignoring the cycle thesis.

Later in this analysis, I’ll show you a rare accumulation signal that occurs only once per cycle and can help us identify periods of heavy whale accumulation.

I’ll also explain how we can use this signal to position ourselves before the market turns EXTREMELY bullish. First, let’s look at the chart.

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You probably understand, in theory, that you should have a crypto legacy plan. But you may not have felt the full weight of what could happen to the people you’re building your wealth for.

By the end of this article, I want that reality to feel clear and specific. Not because I want to frighten you, but because families are already facing situations like this after years of putting off the same task.

Let’s begin with Maria’s story.

Maria was married to Aleksandar, a technician who discovered Bitcoin during the COVID-19 lockdowns. He began investing before Bitcoin entered its explosive 2021 bull market. He stored his Bitcoin in a hardware wallet and continued to accumulate over the years. Sadly, he passed away.

Three months after Aleksandar died, she found a small device in a desk drawer.

She kept it there for a while because she didn’t know what it was. Eventually, she searched online and learned that it was a hardware wallet for storing cryptocurrency.

She read enough to understand that it could contain a lot of money.

It could hold the Bitcoin that Aleksandar had quietly accumulated over several years. She recalled that he had mentioned owning some crypto, but he had never made the details as tangible to Maria as a bank or retirement account.

She tried the PIN. She entered a number she associated with her husband, but the device rejected it.

She tried another. The screen warned her that she had one attempt left before the device would permanently encrypt.

She stopped and kept the device in the same drawer.

What’s painful is that the Bitcoin remains on the blockchain. Every transaction is recorded. The current balance is visible to anyone who knows the wallet address. But Maria can’t access it.

Aleksandar was only 43 years old. He had a will. He had told his wife that he owned some cryptocurrency. He had intended to organize the details. But he never got around to it.

That’s the problem with crypto inheritance.

You can spend years protecting your Bitcoin from hackers, exchanges, scams, and market crashes. But if you don’t create a clear plan for what happens after you’re gone, the same security measures that protected your wealth can prevent your family from accessing it.

Imagine holding 5 BTC in a wallet that your family knows almost nothing about.

What happens if you die unexpectedly? What happens if you lose your memory or become unable to manage your accounts? Who knows where your Bitcoin is stored? Who knows how to access it? Who even knows that it exists?

Your family shouldn’t have to solve those questions while grieving.

Crypto inheritance problems are already emerging in various forms around the world. Many cases never become public because families don’t know where to look, don’t understand how the technology works, or don’t even realize that a significant amount of money exists.

The blockchain doesn’t forget. Your family might. So let’s begin with the scale of what has already been lost.

»»» Want to know about the next BTC accumulation window we are tracking? Click here to learn more about the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

What Has Already Been Lost

Bitcoin’s deflationary nature makes lost coins especially significant. CZ, Binance’s CEO, recently estimated that 10% to 20% of Bitcoin could be lost, stuck, or unrecoverable.

Some of those coins disappeared because people forgot their passwords, lost their private keys, or discarded the devices that stored them. Others became inaccessible when Bitcoin holders died without leaving a clear inheritance plan for their families.

I’m sharing this today so we can learn from their mistakes.

You see, many of us who began accumulating Bitcoin several years ago, when it traded in the hundreds or low thousands of dollars, have since built meaningful holdings. Some have accumulated enough Bitcoin to leave a significant inheritance. But what happens if no one accesses it after we are gone?

Now think back to Maria’s story.

She found her husband’s hardware wallet. She knew it could contain valuable Bitcoin. But she didn’t have the information she needed to access it safely.

Her husband had protected his Bitcoin during his lifetime, but he hadn’t created a clear plan for what would happen to it after his death.

Maria’s situation may not be unique. Many families could face the same problem in the future. They may know that their loved one owned Bitcoin, but they don’t know where the recovery information is, how the wallet works, or what steps they need to take. Do you have a crypto legacy plan yet?

The Problem...

Most of us already understand, at least to some extent, that crypto works differently from a bank account.

We know that private keys control access to our assets. We also know that family members who don’t know where the recovery information is may have no way to access our wallets. You may have thought about this before and told yourself you’d deal with it later. But why haven’t you?

Most people who hold significant crypto assets and haven’t created an inheritance plan still care deeply about their families.

They want to leave something behind for the people they love. The problem isn’t a lack of intention. It’s the gap between caring and taking action.

The task you must perform sits quietly in the background. You know it’s important, but it doesn’t feel urgent. Sometimes, you feel it’s complicated, not immediate.

You know you should do it, but you keep putting it off because nothing bad happens today. That’s what makes the problem so dangerous.

You can go years without anything happening.

Yes, you’re hale and hearty today. Your portfolio is growing, and your crypto remains accessible.

What if something changes?

A serious health challenge. An unexpected death. Or even a story about another family finding a crypto wallet they can’t access.

Suddenly, the abstract problem becomes very real.

The goal of this article is to trigger that urgency so you can think twice.

Look, you don’t need advanced technical knowledge to build a crypto legacy plan. You don’t need to rebuild your entire estate plan. You don’t need to abandon the arrangements you’ve already made.

You need an afternoon to inventory your crypto holdings, a few decisions about how you store your recovery information, a focused conversation with your estate attorney, and a 30-minute conversation with the right family members.

The time you spend putting this plan together could take less than a single weekend afternoon. I can’t tell you how to go about it.

What you gain is something much more important: a family that knows what you owned, where to find it, and how to access it when you’re no longer there to help them.

The alternative is the story of Maria that I shared earlier.

This is Part One of our Crypto Legacy Plan Series. So, stay tuned for the next part.

If you found this post useful, you can also learn more about the next potential Bitcoin accumulation phase and the Golden Buy Zones I’m watching for Bitcoin and selected altcoins.

Thanks for reading.

Click Here to Learn More About the Crypto Golden Buy Zone Blueprint

Hello, investors.

Today, I’m covering Hyperliquid, one of the strongest altcoins in this crypto cycle. While most altcoins remain deep in bear market territory, HYPE has held above our short-term support zone. In fact, it went parabolic in June, reaching a new all-time high near $77, despite the bear market.

Since then, HYPE has spent the past two months defending the $50 psychological support level. Now, here’s why I’m paying attention to this project.

Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its 2025 all-time high near $126,000, while many altcoins have crashed 60% to 80% from their cycle peaks. HYPE, by comparison, has retraced about 33% from its all-time high, showing relative strength compared with Bitcoin and major altcoins.

The question now is: how long will this support zone hold? See the chart below.

You might be wondering, “Jonas, is HYPE cheap at $56?”

Well, that’s not my main focus. What caught my attention is something more interesting: why has HYPE maintained a much smaller drawdown than Bitcoin, and can that relative strength continue?

I’ve spent time researching the project and studying its pricing structure, and I want to share what I’m seeing. Since we are long-term investors, I will focus on the daily chart in this analysis. So, let’s unpack it.

HYPE Is Holding the Line Above $50

Looking at the chart below, you can see that HYPE dipped into the $51–$53 zone in early August. So far, buyers have defended it every time the price has tested it.

Unlike most tokens that ran hard in this cycle and are now being liquidated by their holders, Hyperliquid is generating real, growing revenue that’s being funneled straight back into the token through buybacks. That’s a structurally different setup from a token whose only support is a speculative narrative.

I’ll break that down properly in the next section because it’s the real reason I think this dip is behaving differently from the rest of the altcoin market. Let’s begin with…

What Actually Separates Hyperliquid From the Pack

Hyperliquid built and operated its exchange for roughly two years before launching its token. During that time, the team funded the platform entirely through trading fees.

When HYPE finally launched in November 2024, nearly one-third of the total token supply went directly to real users through one of the largest airdrops in crypto history. The team didn’t allocate those tokens to venture capital firms, market makers, or insiders looking for an early exit.

That decision shaped what followed. It created a community with a direct stake in the network and reduced some of the structural sell pressure that often comes with heavily venture-backed crypto projects. In simple terms, Hyperliquid never raised a dollar from venture capital.

Also, the revenue is real and substantial. 

Over the past year, Hyperliquid has generated between $750–$800 million in protocol revenue, with total fees collected approaching $1 billion on an annualized basis.

Hence, Hyperliquid is among the highest-fee-generating entities in crypto — ahead of most Layer-1 blockchains, including those with market caps several times higher than HYPE’s. This metric indicates whether a protocol has a business. Hyperliquid does.

Buyback and Burn Mechanism

Here’s something particularly interesting about Hyperliquid.

Protocol fees flow into Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund, which uses those fees to buy HYPE on the open market and permanently remove the tokens from circulation. This creates deflationary pressure backed by actual economic activity rather than inflationary token emissions disguised as rewards.

The protocol has already used hundreds of millions of dollars in fees for these buybacks. In simple terms, every dollar of trading activity on Hyperliquid can indirectly create buying pressure for HYPE. That’s one of the key reasons I’m paying attention to the token’s fundamentals.

It’s Building Infrastructure, Not Just an App

Hyperliquid isn’t just building another trading app. It’s building its own financial infrastructure. The network runs on its purpose-built Layer 1, HyperCore, which uses a fully on-chain central limit order book to match trades, delivering speed and a user experience closer to that of a centralized exchange.

HyperEVM sits alongside it, enabling developers to build smart contracts directly on that infrastructure. You don’t need to understand all the technical details to grasp the bigger picture. It allows builders to deploy their own perpetual markets permissionlessly and also supports prediction markets.

Amazingly, Hyperliquid is also developing its native USDH stablecoin, which could keep more dollar liquidity within the ecosystem rather than relying entirely on external stablecoins such as USDC or USDT.

Looking at Hyperliquid’s infrastructure and the team’s commitment to building the network, I think the bigger story is becoming clearer. Hyperliquid is gradually becoming more than a place to trade perpetuals. It’s building infrastructure that other projects can use.

Think about what that means: real revenue, real buybacks, a community-first token distribution, and an expanding ecosystem. I am excited about this project. Many new projects allocate large portions to VCs and insiders, creating significant selling pressure when those early holders decide to take profits.

Hyperliquid took a different approach. I am not suggesting that HYPE will explode from its current level, but the fundamentals give me reasons to consider this token a potential long-term holding for the next bull run. However, we’re not buying it yet.

Want to know the ideal season to accumulate Bitcoin and altcoins in our Golden Zones? Click here to learn more.

What I’m Watching Before Buying: The EMA Ribbon

My favorite tool for reading trend health on a chart like this is the EMA ribbon — a stack of exponential moving averages that, together, tell you whether a trend is intact, weakening, or already broken. See the chart below.

Here’s how I’m reading it right now:

The 200-day EMA (blue) did its job. The 200-day EMA sat right inside our $51–$53 support zone and acted as a floor, in confluence with our horizontal demand level. That confluence is exactly why HYPE was able to rally from around $51 back up toward $58.6 in recent days rather than simply cutting through support. See the chart above.

The 20/50/100 EMA cluster (yellow, green, red) is the real battleground. These three averages have compressed into a tight band sitting just above current price, with the 50-EMA acting as the most immediate resistance.

A cluster like this usually resolves in one direction with some force — either price punches through and the averages start fanning out bullishly again, or price gets rejected and the cluster starts curling over, which tends to precede a deeper move down. See the chart below for illustrations.

If HYPE can’t reclaim the EMA cluster and close above roughly $59 on the daily timeframe, it risks losing the 200-day EMA, which just served as support. That would mark the start of what could be a meaningful leg lower — and it’s precisely why I’m not adding HYPE to my active watchlist right now, despite everything I just laid out on the fundamental side.

Remember, you’re a long-term investor. You don’t need to guess how this resolves this week. You need a plan for both outcomes and a price at which you’re comfortable being decisively wrong-footed on timing but still right on thesis. That’s what the rest of this report is for.

The Risks You Cannot Ignore.

No setup is clean, and I’d be doing you a disservice if I only showed you the bull case. Three things could break this thesis, and you should be watching all of them alongside the chart.

Token unlocks:

Roughly 48% of HYPE’s one billion total supply remains locked. And core contributors have been receiving a scheduled tranche on the 6th of each month since January 2026, under a one-year cliff followed by 24 months of linear vesting that extends into 2027.

The next notable unlock occurs on August 29, releasing about 1.4% of the total supply — worth roughly 2.7% of the current market cap. No single unlock is a company-ending event, but collectively, this represents a multi-year supply overhang that real demand has to absorb.

This is exactly why the buyback mechanism I described earlier matters so much: it’s the counterweight to this dilution, and its strength depends entirely on fee revenue holding up.

Competition is real, even if the numbers get noisy.

Aster and Lighter have both posted eye-catching volume figures over the past year, with some periods seeing more notional volume than Hyperliquid itself. Some of that is genuine competition for order flow.

Some of it, according to several analysts covering the sector, is inflated by points-based incentive programs that reward repetitive, low-cost trading rather than organic activity.

My rule of thumb: treat any perp DEX’s headline volume — Hyperliquid’s included — with a degree of skepticism, and weigh it against harder-to-fake metrics like fee revenue, TVL, and open interest.

The macro backdrop isn’t helping.

Bitcoin topped $126,000 in October 2025 and has since given back roughly half of that move, trading near $63,000. In fact, the price could drop further.

Bitcoin has closed lower in August every year since 2022. When Bitcoin crashes, it often drags most altcoins down. Do you think HYPE will hold above $50 if Bitcoin loses the $60,000 support zone?

Our Downside Accumulation Map

So here’s the question that actually matters if the $53–$51 zone gives way: what happens next, and where would I start deploying capital?

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As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin has dropped below the 200-week EMA, just as it did during the 2022 bear market. At the same time, the 20-week EMA is approaching a bearish crossover below the 200-week EMA. You can see the setup in the circled area on the chart below.

This is a clear warning about what could lie ahead. As I’ve mentioned over the past few weeks and months, this isn’t the time to get overly bullish on Bitcoin or on altcoins still trading well below their all-time highs. Rather, it’s time to stay disciplined, assess the market objectively, and prepare for what may come next.

And if history repeats, Bitcoin could trade sideways for several months within a bearish structure before eventually falling into our projected accumulation zone, as shown on the chart above. You can learn more in the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

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No, that wasn’t the case. Many of them followed the security advice we've been given to protect their BTC holdings. Yet their accounts were still wiped out.

This recent event has reminded me of something that many crypto investors overlook: investing in cryptocurrency is one thing, but keeping your assets secure presents an entirely different challenge.

You can time the market, pick the right coins, and survive every crash the market throws at you. None of that matters if you lose access to the Bitcoin you’ve spent years accumulating.

That’s what makes this incident so important. The story should concern every self-custody user, regardless of which hardware wallet brand they trust.

You may ask…

What Is the Coldcard Hack, and Why Is This Topic Relevant?

Coldcard is a hardware device designed to store Bitcoin. It wasn’t a budget product from an unknown manufacturer. For years, it was the hardware wallet serious Bitcoin holders recommended without hesitation.

Yes, it’s Bitcoin-only, uses dual secure elements, has fully open-source firmware, and has a reputation for paranoid attention to security details. If you’d asked me which cold storage wallet to trust with a life-changing amount of Bitcoin, Coldcard would consistently rank near the top of my list.

But a few days ago, that reputation took a direct hit. Hackers exploited a bug in the device’s firmware and began draining Bitcoin from Coldcard wallets in coordinated waves. The flaw had gone undetected in the firmware since March 2021.

So far, blockchain investigators at TRM Labs have tracked roughly 1,816 BTC, valued at about $116 million, stolen from more than 5,200 addresses in four waves. That makes it the third-largest crypto hack of 2026, a year that had already recorded more than $1.2 billion in losses from 276 incidents.

Once again, this should make us rethink how we approach Bitcoin custody.

If you hold a substantial amount of Bitcoin in self-custody, I strongly believe you should consider spreading your holdings across two or more hardware wallets from different manufacturers. That’s the approach I shared with our paid members during this incident.

The goal isn’t to eliminate every possible risk. It’s to avoid keeping your entire Bitcoin position on a single device.

Remember, as investors, we don’t put all our eggs in one basket. This diversification principle shouldn’t be limited to the coins you own but should also apply to how you store them. Next, let’s discuss…

What Caused the Coldcard Vulnerability…

Here’s the part that should bother anyone who owns a hardware wallet, regardless of brand. Based on the stories I have followed and the articles I have read, the secure elements in the Coldcard were never compromised. Every physical security mechanism performed exactly as designed. The failure occurred in the software process that generates your seed phrase in the first place.

According to a disclosure from Block’s Bitcoin engineering and security team, a single code change made on March 1, 2021 — introduced in Coldcard firmware version 4.0.0 — silently routed seed generation through a software-based pseudorandom number generator instead of the device’s dedicated hardware random number generator.

The practical effect was severe. Entropy that should have measured a full 128 bits fell to as little as 40 bits on Mk2 and Mk3 devices, and roughly 72 bits on later models.

The vulnerable code path affected more than just standard wallet seeds; it affected every function on the device that relied on that same random number generator, including paper wallet private keys, seed backup masks, device cloning keys, and stored password features.

Painfully, paper wallets were hit especially hard because their private keys came straight from the flawed randomness, with no extra processing step standing between the bug and your funds. Now, let me ask, were you affected by the hack?

»»» Before you continue, I am giving away The Crypto Cycle Checklist. Click HERE to claim yours or skip to keep reading.

Here are a few unaffected categories:

• Seeds created with at least 50 fair, independent, private dice rolls entered during setup.

• Wallets protected by a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase

• Multisig setups where the keys didn’t all come from vulnerable devices.

• The original Mk1 device

• Coinkite’s TAPSIGNER, OPENDIME, and SATSCARD products, which run on entirely different codebases.

This brings us to an important discussion…

Is Bitcoin Self-Custody Still Safe Following the Coldcard Hack?

Well, this article isn’t an argument against self-custody. It’s an argument for treating self-custody as an ongoing responsibility rather than a one-time purchase you make and then forget about.

I’m a strong believer in crypto self-custody, but I also use centralized exchanges. I’m not saying one approach is right for everyone. Your choice should depend on your experience, risk tolerance, and comfort with managing your own security.

For some investors, keeping a portion of their assets on a reputable centralized exchange may be more practical, especially if they aren’t comfortable managing hardware wallets, seed phrases, firmware updates, and other aspects of self-custody.

Meanwhile, a centralized platform often provides customer support when issues arise, but that support doesn’t eliminate the risks of trusting a third party.

Sure, exchange custody comes with counterparty risk. The exchange could fail, suffer a security breach, freeze withdrawals, or lose access to customer funds. In some cases, there’s little an individual user can do to prevent those events.

On the other hand, self-custody removes that specific counterparty risk, but it introduces a different set of responsibilities. You become responsible for your seed phrase, device security, firmware integrity, backups, and the trustworthiness of the hardware and software supply chain.

You see, neither approach eliminates risk.

The real question is which risks you understand, which you can manage, and how you can structure your custody setup so that a single failure doesn’t wipe out everything you’ve spent years accumulating.

How to Protect Your Bitcoin Wallet Against This Type of Attack

Here are the three habits that address what this exploit exposed, and each applies regardless of which hardware wallet you’re running.

Use a BIP-39 passphrase — the “25th word.” This is a second input you provide alongside your standard seed phrase, and it generates an entirely different wallet from the same set of words.

Notably, wallets protected by a strong, unique passphrase were largely spared in this attack. But it has to be strong: long, randomly generated, and never built from a dictionary word, a memorable pattern, or a birthday. A short passphrase barely slows down an attacker who has already reconstructed your seed.

Track firmware like it actually matters — including when your seed was created, not just the version you’re running today. 

This is the detail that trips people up. A firmware update installed today doesn’t tell you anything about the firmware that was running when your seed was originally generated. That earlier moment is the only one that matters for this specific vulnerability.

Many believed Coinkite had been explicit. CZ, Binance's founder, has this to say… “The thing is, with self-custody, devs patching the bug won't fix previously generated wallets. And devs have no way to reach users on air-gapped devices. Your wallet stays open to hackers until you act. I'm a believer in self-custody, but it puts the burden on you.”

Diversify hardware in multisig setups.

A 2-of-3 wallet split across a Coldcard, a Ledger, and a Trezor doesn’t fail just because one manufacturer had a bad five years — the attacker who reconstructs one key still needs a second key from hardware they never touched.

But the thing is, Multisig arrangements built entirely from a single vulnerable device line inherit the full risk, so diversification only works if the keys genuinely come from different manufacturers with different firmware stacks.

If everything we’ve discussed so far seems complicated to you, you’d better focus on storing your assets on centralized exchanges.

Before you continue, claim your Crypto Cycle Checklist HERE.

Real Stories From Coldcard Hack Victims And What They Teach Us

Everything you’ve read so far explains the technical breakdown and the mechanism. It doesn’t describe what it actually felt like. For that, let’s read stories we curated from victims themselves on X (Twitter).

Jonathan Goodman had $1.6 million CAD in Bitcoin on a Coldcard that had never connected to the internet, stored in a safety deposit box. He detected unauthorized outgoing transactions he didn’t make, all within a seven-minute window. He claimed he’d never shared his seed. His device never went online. He did everything the community recommends. 

But when the hacker exploited the bug they found in a single line of code, none of the safety measures mattered, because the flaw wasn’t in anything he controlled — it was baked into the wallet before he even opened the box.

The lesson: You can lock a device in a vault forever, but it won’t prevent future losses if the infrastructure it depends on is compromised.

Adam Carson reported losing 6.42 BTC — roughly $400,000 — from a Coldcard that had never connected to the internet and was locked in a safety deposit box.

He wrote on X: No seed in the cloud, no photo on a phone, no password manager backup. 

He spent hours afterward reviewing his own history for a mistake, hoping to find one, because at least a mistake would mean he understood what happened. He found nothing.

Tim Lamb was on a family vacation when news of the Coldcard hack broke. He had two Bitcoin set aside for his kids, with the seed backed up on a metal plate at home. 

He wrote on X that he heard about the hack on Friday and spent a day deciding whether to cut the trip short. He didn’t think to ask a neighbor to check the wallet until Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, when it was checked, the funds were gone — swept out Saturday afternoon, hours before he’d had the idea.

I felt emotional reading Tim’s story because he was building a future for his lovely kids with Bitcoin, yet the hackers didn’t care.

ACEIN had his retirement savings stored on a Coldcard when he traveled to a conference without the device. Fortunately, he had a backup plan.

He recalled his seed phrase from memory, imported it into a software wallet, sent a small test transaction to Coinbase, and then transferred the rest of his funds. The test confirmed everything worked before he transferred the remaining balance.

Thank goodness he memorized his seeds; without that backup plan, this could have turned out very differently.

Now, just like Ishita, you might be wondering what the safest way to store Bitcoin actually is.

She asked a simple question: what is the safest way to store crypto right now?

I don’t think she expected the blunt answer she received.

Someone replied, “The safest option is never to get into crypto.” If you’re asking the same question, there’s your answer. On a serious note, you can split your holdings across a few hardware wallets or use two or more centralized exchanges. The IBIT (EFT) option is also available.

The Real Takeaway From This Article

Every story I’ve discussed points to the same gap: the distance between buying crypto and keeping it safe.

You see, buying Bitcoin is a one-time decision. Self-custody is different. It requires habits you need to maintain over time. That means checking firmware history, understanding how your passphrase works, reviewing your backup process, and knowing what your setup can and can’t protect against.

After reading the accounts from people affected by this incident, one thing stands out to me. Many of them didn’t ignore basic security steps. They followed the guidance available to them at the time.

Sadly, those instructions were incomplete, not because anyone was careless, but because a flaw introduced five years earlier became visible only the week they were used.

Buying Bitcoin gives you exposure. Keeping it requires maintenance — and that maintenance never really ends.

I hope this incident prompts you to take another look at how you store your Bitcoin. You know more now than you did before, and you are wiser.

If you were affected by the Coldcard wallet hack, I’d like to hear about your experience. If you weren’t, tell me which part of this article changed how you think about Bitcoin custody.

I’ll read and respond to every relevant comment.

Stay safe and stay vigilant.

Before you leave, claim your Crypto Cycle Checklist HERE.

If you want to dive deeper into our cycle thesis and see our accumulation zones for Bitcoin and altcoins on our watchlist, check out the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

Thanks for reading.

Jonas (Crypto Big Stories).

I know it’s the weekend, and the last thing you want is a chart about Bitcoin and the crypto market. You’re probably under the duvet or with family when this letter arrives in your inbox. I’m sorry to bother you. I thought about leaving this until Monday, but it might be too late by then.

I can’t, in good conscience, ignore the emerging pattern on the chart, which could significantly shift market dynamics over the coming weeks.

So pull up your TradingView chart because we’re going to work through this one together in real time.

Think of this as a live, practical session. Not just me telling you what I see, but me walking you through how to see it and how to apply the framework to your own analysis. Let’s get into it.

Open your BTC/USD daily chart on TradingView. But before we do anything else, we need to define the scope of our work. We are focusing on the lower and upper channels on the chart below (1, 2, and 3).

As a free subscriber, you can download The Crypto Cycle Checklist by clicking HERE.

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The Chart:

Okay, let’s do this together. First, pull up the weekly SUI/USDT chart and map out the following areas. I have already done that. See the three areas that stand out in the chart below. As a free subscriber, you can download The Crypto Cycle Checklist by clicking HERE.

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Before you answer that, let me share something I found on the chart this week because it’s the kind of cherry news the XRP community will celebrate loudly. I want to make sure you have the full picture before you join the celebration.

As you can see on the chart below, XRP/USD has broken above our descending trendline, which has served as resistance since XRP peaked above $3.65 in July 2025.

Please note that a trendline break in a bear market does not signal the start of a new bull run. Yes, it could signal a short-term relief bounce before the bear market intensifies.

Before you pop the champagne and pledge allegiance to XRP influencers’ $100 price target, let me bring you back from that hallucination with a dose of chart-based reality. Let’s start with what the weekly chart shows us…

The Weekly Structure

Look at the chart below: XRP is trading below both the 20-week and 200-week EMAs, and — critically — the 20-week EMA has already confirmed a bearish crossover below the 200-week EMA. You can see this in the circled area on the chart. 

Look, this is no longer a warning sign of a potential bearish crossover. It has already occurred and is confirmed.

Ideally, in technical analysis, a bearish crossover of the 20-week EMA below the 200-week EMA is one of the most reliable signals that a prolonged downtrend or consolidation is in place.

We saw this same configuration during the 2022 XRP bear market, and it preceded months of grinding sideways price action before any meaningful recovery began. The same setup is active again in 2026. More about that later.

Interestingly, XRP bulls are defending the $1.00 psychological support level, but the structural signals above it are entirely bearish. Here’s what I mean…

• The EMA ribbon is stacked in a bearish configuration

• The 50- and 100-EMAs have also confirmed a bearish crossover (see the green and red bands on the chart below).

• All EMAs on our chart are sloping downward, and price is being pushed away from the EMAs on every attempted bounce.

Now the question is how long the bulls can defend the $1.00 psychological level. I’m genuinely concerned. Hence, I’m leaning bearish on XRP at current levels despite calls for $100 per coin by 2031. You may ask WHY? Let’s address what I call the “XRP cycle trademark.”

BTW, you can click here to access the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

XRP’s Prolonged Consolidation Phases

Here’s what the XRP community consistently gets wrong — and what the charts, going back over a decade, consistently get right.

XRP has a very specific and historically consistent cycle structure:

• A massive bull run, followed by a sharp crash (bear market), then a prolonged consolidation lasting 18 months to three years.

• Crucially, the consolidation phase always precedes the explosive move, not the other way around. See phases 1 and 2 on the chart below.

Next, let’s analyze the 2014 cycle to date.

Phase 1 (2014–2016):

After XRP’s early price spike, the asset entered a deep consolidation that lasted from 2014 through 2016. During that period, XRP traded in a nearly flat, sideways zone for about two years, establishing what we now recognize as one of the cleanest accumulation zones in its history. See the arrows on the chart below.

During that phase, XRP reached its all-time low of $0.002686, and it has since risen significantly from that level to its current price. But that extraordinary gain was not made by those who bought at the 2014 all-time high. It was made by those who accumulated during the consolidation phases. This is the thesis we teach in the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

Phase 2 (2018–2020):

Once again, XRP had a massive run during the 2017–2018 bull run. It then crashed from near $3.00 and entered what we now call the 2018–2020 accumulation phase. See the arrows on the chart below.

For roughly two years, the price remained stuck between $0.56 and $0.13. Interestingly, investors who DCA’d through that range and held into 2021 were generously rewarded. Again, you can clearly see that accumulating within the Golden Zone wins over chasing headlines. Next, let’s analyze the most recent market cycle.

Phase 3 (2022–2024):

Now, let’s focus on the most recent example — the one most relevant to understanding where we are today.

After the 2021 peak, XRP entered its third prolonged consolidation phase, spending about 890 days within our range before breaking out in mid-2024 and eventually peaking above $3.65 in 2025. 

Again, the chart below shows the accumulation window, with the two green arrows marking the ideal entry points. Anyone who was patient enough to accumulate XRP during those 890 days was positioned for one of the cycle's best trades.

I cannot stress the importance of understanding the cycle thesis enough, especially as we approach the next bull market. Avoid waiting until the market shifts to a bullish trend before acting. To learn more, you can explore the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

Now let’s return to the current bear market. Has XRP completed its current consolidation phase? Based on the chart above, the answer is clearly no.

There is no extended sideways accumulation base visible yet. XRP has been in a downtrend since July 2025, which is a different phase from consolidation. If history repeats, the consolidation phase is likely still ahead of us.

Does that suggest XRP is heading lower or is it about to explode to $100 soon?

The $100 Math Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About

Let’s address the elephant in the room directly, because it deserves more than a passing comment.

Do you truly believe XRP could trade above $100 by 2031?

Well, if XRP were to trade at $100 per coin, its market capitalization would reach approximately $6.1 trillion — based on a circulating supply of roughly 61 billion XRP tokens. 

For reference, the current global cryptocurrency market capitalization is less than $2.3 trillion. That means a $100 price for XRP would require the entire existing crypto market to nearly triple in size — just to accommodate XRP alone, with nothing else growing. Think about that for a moment.

Where would that $6.1 trillion come from? Who will provide the liquidity?

Look, the total global gold market cap is about $18 trillion. At $100, XRP would represent more than a third of gold’s total value. For a twelve-year-old digital asset that has never successfully decoupled from Bitcoin, I believe that target is unrealistic.

I’m not raising these numbers to dismiss XRP as a project. I genuinely believe Ripple’s cross-border payment technology has real utility, and I’ve personally held XRP during specific windows when it has outperformed Bitcoin and delivered strong returns. But there’s a clear and consequential difference between what XRP can realistically achieve and what its loudest advocates want people to believe.

My Target:

A realistic bull case for XRP in the 2028–2029 bull run, assuming Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs and capital rotates into established altcoins, looks more like this: a conservative target of $6–$8, and an optimistic target of $10–$12 if market conditions are especially favourable. See the chart below.

Those numbers still reflect meaningful returns at the current price — and at our Golden Buy Zone target, they would signal extraordinary gains. But $100? That’s not a price target. That’s a social media marketing campaign dressed up as financial analysis.

What XRP Influencers Don’t Tell You

If you’re new to crypto and you look at XRP trading around $1.06 today, it probably feels cheap. Oh yes, a dollar for a coin that once hit $3.65 — that surely looks like a bargain, right?

But here’s what the influencers selling you that narrative won’t tell you: XRP has existed since 2013 and has already risen 39,512% from its all-time low of $0.002686 (Source: CoinGecko). 

The people who made life-changing gains from XRP didn’t buy it at its all-time high. They bought it during the 2014–2016, 2018–2020, or 2022–2024 accumulation phases — when fear was high, social media was quiet about it, and nobody was predicting $100 targets. We are closer to that phase again.

Here’s my verdict: you’re not early on XRP at $1.00. You’re buying it during a correction phase. And based on historical charts, it’s better to wait for the next accumulation phase rather than chase the current downtrend.

What the Cycle Actually Tells Us to Do

The current XRP setup on the weekly chart is not a buy signal. It is a patience signal.

The descending trendline break we mentioned at the start is worth watching. If XRP can sustain weekly closes above that trendline and begin building a base, that’s an early sign the consolidation phase is beginning — which would eventually precede the next explosive move.

But a single trendline break during a bear market, without EMA confirmation, a sustained consolidation base, or Bitcoin leading the market higher, is not sufficient.

Our Golden Buy Zone for XRP sits well below the current level. That is where the cycle thesis and historical accumulation patterns converge, forming the ideal entry zone for investors looking to position for the 2028–2029 bull market. 

Whether XRP reaches that level or forms a base slightly above it, our framework is clear: accumulate in the zone, hold with conviction, and secure profits during the next euphoric phase.

XRP will have its moment again. But that moment comes after the consolidation, not before it.

Do you believe XRP can reach $100 by 2031, or do you have a different price target in mind? Drop your thoughts in the comments — I’d genuinely like to hear the bull case.

Click here to claim the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint and access our full XRP accumulation targets, entry criteria, and cycle-timing model

— Jonas, Crypto Big Stories

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.

Bitcoin is still trading below our key daily EMAs: the 20, 50, 100, and 200. At the same time, the market structure on both the daily and 4-hour charts continues to weaken, indicating that momentum is gradually shifting to the downside.

Historically, the period between August and November has been among the most challenging phases of a bear market. We’ve seen similar corrections in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. And based on today’s charts, this bear market appears to be following a similar path. More on that later.

First, let’s walk through what’s happening right now, what the charts are telling us, and, most importantly, how you should position yourself in the weeks ahead.

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But the weekly chart, as important as it is, doesn’t capture what’s happening on shorter timeframes. And right now, the daily and 4-hour charts are telling a story worth paying attention to — especially if you’re a swing trader managing active positions or an investor trying to understand the range Bitcoin is likely to trade in over the coming days.

Let’s break it down.

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A few days ago, a former paid subscriber sent me a direct message with a question I’ve heard in different ways over the past several months.

He said, and I’m paraphrasing, “Jonas, I really value your market analysis and cycle thesis, but I sometimes feel disconnected because you rarely cover altcoins or other opportunities across the crypto market. It feels like I might be missing out.”

I understand exactly where that feeling comes from because it’s a common concern.

I replied to him directly, but today I want to share the same response with all of you. I guess he is not the only one thinking this way. There are probably hundreds of readers and subscribers who have asked themselves the same question but never said it out loud.

So let’s talk about it.

Before we dive deeper, let me be direct: the bear market is not a time for excitement. It’s a phase for strategic and disciplined portfolio construction. It’s for building quietly while the rest of the market looks the other way.

In fact, it’s the opposite of what most retail investors do, which is buy during euphoria and sell during despair.

Obviously, this isn’t the time to chase the next 100x altcoin.

I know social media and Substack are full of people making those promises right now. Every day, you’ll see influencers drawing lines on charts of random low-cap tokens or claiming they’ve found the next hidden gem that’s about to deliver a 20x return, even while Bitcoin remains in a bear market.

I’m not saying they have bad intentions. Most are simply sharing what they believe.

What I can say with confidence is that this approach isn’t producing consistent results, either for them or for the people following their advice, because we’re all investing in the same market. As you know, when Bitcoin comes under pressure, the rest of the crypto market typically follows.

Take a look at the BTC/USD daily chart below. When Bitcoin lost the 200-day EMA (blue) as support in November 2025, nearly the entire crypto market turned bearish.

Now, if you’re searching for the next 100x altcoin, let me ask you a simple question.

How many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have consistently traded above their 200-day EMA during this period?

The answer is very few. For most altcoins, the answer is essentially none.

So, if Bitcoin, the market’s strongest and most influential asset, is still structurally bearish, what exactly are altcoins recovering from? This is why I continue to urge you to keep your exposure limited at this stage.

Let’s start with...

Why Altcoins Underperform in This Phase — Every Time

Over the years, I’ve learned that the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins during a bear market is actually quite simple, even though many investors choose to ignore it.

When Bitcoin crashes, altcoins usually fall even more sharply. And when Bitcoin rebounds, altcoins often rally briefly before resuming their broader downtrend, even as Bitcoin begins to stabilize.

Take the current cycle as an example. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak of about $126,000 to around $63,000. By contrast, most of the top 50 altcoins have lost between 60% and 80%, with some falling even further over the same period. See the BTC/USD weekly chart below.

This brings me to an uncomfortable lesson history keeps repeating, yet many retail investors don’t accept it until they’ve already suffered heavy losses.

Look, my friend, allocating a large share of your capital to low-cap altcoins in a bear market is rarely a wise move. Your odds improve significantly if you wait until Bitcoin has either formed a confirmed bottom or regained clear bullish momentum. But we’re not there yet. You can learn more in the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint.

Take the previous market cycle as an example. Many retail investors treated altcoins like Litecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, and Bitcoin Cash as long-term investments during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. They believed they were buying once-in-a-generation bargains.

Years later, those same coins are still trading well below their previous all-time highs. Some remain down more than 70%.

Sadly, investors who accumulated those altcoins during the bear market have spent years sitting on unrealized losses, even after an entire bull market cycle has come and gone.

This has shown that the solution to building a healthy and profitable crypto portfolio isn’t about adding more coins to what you already own. It’s about reevaluating what you hold, cutting positions where necessary, and concentrating on the assets most likely to deliver returns.

In my view, diversifying into speculative altcoins while Bitcoin is structurally weak is not diversification — it’s amplifying your exposure to risk at the worst possible time. Next, let’s address…

Where the Focus Should Be Right Now

I want to be clear that I’m not against altcoins as a category. As we’ve seen, asymmetric gains are possible in the right altcoins during the right phase of the bull market — and we’ll be positioned to capture them when that phase arrives. But we aren’t there yet.

The daily BTC/USD chart makes the current picture clear. Bitcoin has been rejected at the 200-day EMA (blue band) multiple times since the bear market began (see the red arrow on the chart below).

We are currently in a consolidation phase between the $60,000 support zone and the $67,000–$68,000 resistance band. Until Bitcoin reclaims and holds above the 200-day EMA with conviction, the broader market remains structurally bearish. And in that environment, altcoins don’t outperform. They bleed.

So what should you be doing for the next several months? The answer is the same as it’s been since we began tracking this bear market cycle:

1. Hold Bitcoin because it has set a new all-time high after every bear market in its history. At over a 50% discount from the 2025 peak, accumulating between the 55% and 65% discount zones wouldn’t count as speculation — it’s applying a framework the cycle has validated three times. 

You don’t need Bitcoin to reach $250,000 or even $500,000 to earn life-changing returns. If you build your position in the $45,000 to $55,000 range, all you need is for the next bull cycle to play out the way previous ones have.

Inside the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint, I reveal the exact accumulation zones I’m watching for Bitcoin and a select group of high-conviction altcoins. Click here to learn more.

2. Hold Ethereum and Solana selectively. These are the two altcoins with the most consistent recovery history, the deepest ecosystems, and the strongest institutional presence. If any altcoins are worth holding through a bear market as part of a long-term portfolio, it’s these — and even then, position sizes should be smaller than your Bitcoin allocation.

3. Build cash. This is the instruction I’ve been repeating since the bear market began, and it remains the most valuable thing you can do right now. Cash is not a losing position in a bear market — it’s optionality. It’s the ability to act decisively when the cycle offers the maximum buying opportunity, rather than being locked into positions bought at higher prices and watching the discount deepen.

4. Ignore the noise. Every bear market generates a new wave of narratives designed to pull retail capital into speculative positions. The altcoin seasons people see in hindsight were almost always preceded by Bitcoin confirming its recovery first. So, wait for that confirmation. It’s not here yet.

The Path Forward

Mind you, Bitcoin could still move lower before forming its final bottom, which aligns with both our cycle thesis and the current weekly EMA structure.

Inside the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint, we’ve mapped out our accumulation zones for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and a small group of high-conviction asymmetric opportunities. We also explain the specific conditions we’re waiting for before deploying capital aggressively.

We may not catch the exact bottom, and that’s perfectly fine. We don’t need to.

Buying a global asset with Bitcoin’s track record at a 55% to 65% discount from its all-time high, then patiently holding through the accumulation phase, puts you in a position to sell into the next bull market.

Meanwhile, many retail investors who spent this bear market chasing weaker altcoins may still be trying to recover their losses.

Now, the question is: would you rather accumulate Bitcoin and blue-chip altcoins within our Golden Buy Zones, or wait until euphoria returns before deploying? The choice you make in this phase will define your position in the next one.

Click here to learn more inside the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint →

Stay focused. The best opportunities are still ahead.

— Jonas, Crypto Big Stories

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.

As you can see, we had sharp rejections from the upper zone, while the green arrows indicated a lower support zone. Now the question mark is: what happens next?

If Bitcoin repeats that structural pattern we had in June, we could see a revisit of the $57,000–$58,000 zone in the coming days. But should we panic? No — not for a second. Let me explain why, and more importantly, what the weekly chart and three full bear market cycles are telling us about where this story ends.

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After months of relentless selling, fear, and endless doom-and-gloom predictions about crypto, buyers are slowly returning. Confidence is improving, Bitcoin is gaining momentum, and altcoins are showing signs of life.

Now, Bitcoin is trading above the 50-day EMA and moving higher as buyers sustain bullish momentum. See the arrow on the chart below. That’s a welcome development after the panic that dominated the first half of the year.

Ironically, many of the same retail investors who were eager to buy Bitcoin above $120,000 are now debating whether prices have already recovered too far. Look, we aren’t chasing the trend.

We accumulated when Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $58,000, and we’re still building cash on the sidelines to accumulate during the next correction. But we aren’t there yet.

You must understand that markets don’t move because people suddenly become smarter. They move because emotions swing between fear and greed.

If you added to our portfolio when fear dominated this space, the market will reward your conviction soon. But don’t get too excited yet.

Now you may ask why.

Well, several on-chain indicators now suggest the market is moving from deep pessimism toward cautious optimism. That doesn’t automatically mean a new bull market has begun. It simply tells us the environment is changing. First, let’s begin with…

MVRV Z-Score

One of my most reliable cycle indicators remains the MVRV Z-Score.

Unlike technical indicators that rely only on price action, the MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization. In simple terms, it measures how far market value has moved away from the average price at which coins last changed hands.

That makes it an excellent tool for identifying periods when Bitcoin becomes historically undervalued or dangerously overvalued. See the screenshot below.

If you carefully analyze the chart above, you’ll see that history shows a consistent pattern.

Every major Bitcoin cycle bottom has occurred when the Z-Score fell into the green accumulation zone, where market value approaches realized value. These periods represent maximum fear, widespread capitulation, and the point where patient investors quietly begin accumulating. But the Z-Score hasn’t dipped into that zone yet.

The opposite is also true.

When the Z-Score pushes into the red zone above historical extremes, the market usually enters late-stage euphoria. Those have historically marked excellent areas to reduce exposure rather than chase prices higher. See the arrows in the chart below.

What makes this indicator valuable is not precision but consistency. It doesn’t predict exact tops or bottoms. Instead, it identifies valuation extremes that have repeated across multiple market cycles. Again, it’s not a perfect indicator for cycle-based investors.

Here’s one weakness you should recognize…

The biggest criticism of the MVRV Z-Score this cycle is that it never reached the extreme readings seen during previous bull markets.

During the 2024 to 2025 rally, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs, yet the Z-Score remained well below earlier cycle peaks. See the green arrows in the chart below.

Well, several factors may explain this.

First, institutional participation has expanded considerably through ETFs and corporate treasury buying. Also, long-term holders have shown greater discipline by reducing speculative selling compared with previous cycles.

Both developments have increased Bitcoin’s realized capitalization faster than in earlier years, reducing the gap between realized value and market value.

Now, you may ask, Jonas, are you sure this indicator is still as reliable as it was in previous cycles? Yes, it’s still very useful.

However, the discrepancies remind us that every cycle develops under different market conditions. Instead of expecting identical readings, we should focus on where the indicator sits relative to its historical accumulation and distribution zones. See the green arrows in the chart below.

The zone we marked on the chart above remains one of the strongest long-term buying regions for cycle investors.

You can learn more about crypto cycle-based investing and our projected accumulation zones for Bitcoin and high-conviction altcoins in the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint. Click here to access your copy.

Here’s Why You Must Stay Cautious

Our Bitcoin Timing Model continues to support this gradual shift. At the beginning of July, the BTM Sentiment Score stood at just 19%. Today, it has climbed to 33%.

That may not sound dramatic, but sentiment rarely shifts overnight. As you may know, recoveries begin slowly before they become obvious to everyone else. See the screenshot below.

A sentiment reading of 33% indicates that fear is fading and optimism is beginning to return. This tool shows that smart money becomes active long before headlines turn bullish. A few months ago, the sentiment score was below 15%, signaling bottom-cycle accumulation when the market was quiet.

Today, the Bitcoin Timing Model data shows:

• Accumulation Probability: 47%

• Distribution Probability: 20%

• Trend Confidence: 27%

These numbers suggest we’re entering a transition phase rather than a full-blown bull market.

Sure, buying opportunities still exist, although they aren’t as attractive as they were when sentiment remained below 20%.

Historically, our strongest accumulation periods occur when the BTM Score falls below 15%. And the highest conviction buying windows appear below 10%.

So far, this bear market has not reached that extreme.

Whether we eventually see single-digit sentiment remains uncertain because the Bitcoin Timing Model is still building historical data across complete market cycles. Even so, it has already done an impressive job of identifying periods when accumulation makes more sense than emotional selling. That’s exactly how long-term investors should be thinking.

Instead of asking whether Bitcoin will rally another 15% next month, ask whether today’s prices will look attractive four years from now. That question usually produces better investment decisions.

So, if you want to understand how we identify these accumulation windows and structure positions across an entire market cycle, the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint outlines the complete framework we use to time purchases, manage risk, and prepare for the next expansion phase. Finally, let’s address…

Fear still dominates the broader market

The Fear and Greed Index tells a similar story. The latest reading sits at 25, placing the market firmly in Extreme Fear.

• Yesterday’s reading was 29.

• Last week measured 22.

• Last month came in at 23. See the screenshot below.

Although prices have recovered from their lows, with Bitcoin surging from $57,800, investor psychology remains fragile. That’s completely normal.

Ideally, sentiment almost always lags price. Most investors wait for confirmation before believing a recovery is real. By then, much of the easiest upside has often disappeared.

This is why I have spent more time studying market psychology than social media. I can confidently say that extreme fear has repeatedly created the best long-term buying opportunities throughout Bitcoin’s history. Conversely, extreme greed has repeatedly led people to buy after most of the gains were already behind them.

Now, we’re beginning to move away from maximum pessimism, but we haven’t entered widespread euphoria. That leaves the market in an interesting position. But don’t FOMO into chasing the trend.

Stay disciplined while others become emotional

The mid-year rally is encouraging. On-chain data is improving. Sentiment is recovering. Fear is slowly fading.

Yet none of these developments justify abandoning discipline.

Cycle investing has never been about buying because everyone else feels optimistic. It’s about building positions when risk is lowest and reducing exposure when excitement reaches unsustainable levels.

We’re no longer sitting in the panic-driven bargains we saw earlier this year, but neither are we approaching the kind of euphoric conditions that historically mark major cycle tops.

For now, remain patient. Continue following the data, ignore the daily noise, and let the market come to you.

The crypto investors who build lasting wealth rarely make emotional decisions. They follow a repeatable framework.

Now, if you’d like to adopt the same cycle-based approach we use to identify high-probability accumulation zones before the crowd arrives, the Golden Buy Zone Blueprint was written for exactly that purpose. It shows you when to buy, when to stay patient, and the asymmetric altcoins we are betting on for the 2027-2029 bull run.

Click Here to Learn More and Download Your Copy.

This article is for educational purposes only and does not guarantee that this bear market will follow past cycles. Please do your own research.

This isn’t speculation — the chart is showing us a pattern that has played out before, and understanding it now puts you ahead of the majority of market participants who will only react after the move has already happened. Let me walk you through exactly what I’m seeing.

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