Very lively week in crypto markets and a welcome change after months of frustration. Few expected the move to arrive when it did, but Bitcoin finally broke out of the low-$60,000 range that had contained price action for most of the summer, surging within hours of the Treasury buyback announcement.

The rally extended as far as it did because six weeks of compressed volatility had built up a dense cluster of short-liquidation levels directly above the range that had held since 8 July.

Bitcoin gained roughly 22% on the week, climbing from around $62,800 on Monday to a Friday close of $76,944, before pushing as high as $81,200 this week. It is currently trading around the $79,000 area, with a sustained move above $80,000 likely needed to maintain momentum. The advance was accompanied by a significant short squeeze, with nearly $3 billion of crypto shorts liquidated across 19–20 August. Futures open interest rose alongside spot prices, while perpetual funding remained positive without reaching extreme levels, suggesting leverage is returning but has not yet become overcrowded.

It was Bitcoin’s largest weekly gain since March 2024. Ether participated fully in the move, jumping 18.3% in a single day on Wednesday and reaching $2,261, before extending to a local high of $2,532 and currently trading around $2,467. Crypto-linked equities followed suit, with Coinbase up 8% and Strategy up 6% over the week. Bitcoin dominance sits at approximately 61%, while Bitcoin’s market capitalisation has climbed back to roughly $1.33 trillion. Standard Chartered also reiterated its bullish stance during the week, publishing a $100,000 year-end Bitcoin target while citing improving regulatory engagement and growing support for a potential US strategic reserve. Even after the rally, Bitcoin remains roughly 40% below its October 2025 peak of $126,198.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Binance is preparing for a UK return through an FCA crypto licence application.

• President Trump said SEC Chair Paul Atkins is working to bring Hyperliquid into the US, signalling continued regulatory engagement with major offshore platforms.

• Injective became the first Layer-1 blockchain to be registered as an SEC transfer agent.

• JPMorgan is reportedly positioning for an underwriting role in a potential Polymarket IPO.

• Kalshi’s 15-minute BTC market is emerging as a new price-discovery venue for spot exchanges.

• Data-centre developer Crusoe is reportedly in talks for an IPO, another potential public-market play on the AI infrastructure boom.

• Strategy increased its USD reserves by $150M to $4.8B, strengthening its liquidity buffer.

• Nado introduced xAUT as margin for perpetual trading, bringing tokenised gold exposure into derivatives markets.

• SafePal customer data was reportedly exposed in a security incident affecting orders placed in spring 2026.

• Term Labs was exploited for approximately $8.5M through a governance vulnerability : another reminder that protocol governance remains a significant attack surface.

2. Three Catalysts Came Together, but Treasury Drove the Move

Three important developments landed across three consecutive sessions last week, creating an unusually strong regulatory and macro backdrop for crypto.

• 18 August: The SEC published its Regulation Crypto Assets notice of proposed rulemaking, laying out a framework for crypto offerings.

• 19 August: President Trump hosted senior crypto-industry executives at the White House and urged Congress to pass what he called a fair version of the CLARITY Act.

• 20 August: The CFTC held the inaugural session of its Innovation Advisory Committee.

• 21 August: Another White House meeting brought regulators and industry leaders together, including SEC Chair Paul Atkins, with the focus on clearer market rules and bringing offshore crypto activity back onshore.

The bigger message was that US crypto regulation is increasingly moving forward even without Congress. The administration has made clear that the SEC and CFTC intend to continue advancing their agendas regardless of what happens legislatively, with Atkins pushing the SEC’s Project Crypto initiative

That matters because the legislative route remains uncertain. The Senate entered its August recess without voting on the CLARITY Act, with negotiations still unresolved around the ethics provision and other partisan differences. The first procedural vote on 15 September is effectively the next major deadline. If the bill fails to clear that hurdle, its chances of becoming law in 2026 could fade quickly as attention turns toward the midterm elections.

Treasury Was the Catalyst

Bitcoin opened the 19 August session at around $64,681, up just 0.3% as markets initially reacted to the SEC proposal.

Then Treasury stepped in.

• The US Treasury announced that it would at least double the size of its long-dated Treasury buybacks, increasing the maximum from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation across the 10–20 year and 20–30 year maturity ranges. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent subsequently indicated that the amount could potentially go even higher.

• The announcement pushed long-term Treasury yields sharply lower. With the crypto market already heavily positioned short, the move triggered a violent squeeze , producing the largest liquidation event of 2026 and turning a relatively modest regulatory catalyst into a much larger market move

  

Why Treasury Buyback Matters?

A Treasury buyback is essentially the US government purchasing its own outstanding bonds before maturity.

• Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions: when demand for bonds rises, prices increase and yields fall.

  

• By becoming a buyer in the long end of the Treasury market, the government effectively added demand at a time when investors had been demanding increasingly high returns to hold long-duration US debt.

And there was a reason for the intervention.

• US national debt is now around $40 trillion, with roughly $8.5 trillion of debt issued during the ultra-low-rate era needing to be refinanced in the coming years at substantially higher rates.

• At the same time, the US government is competing with an increasingly large corporate borrower base. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta alone have issued nearly $220 billion of bonds this year to help finance their AI infrastructure i.e. more than double the $108 billion the three companies issued during all of 2025.

• Add large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy and investors demanding greater compensation for locking money away for decades, and the pressure on long-term yields becomes easier to understand.

Real 30-year Treasury yields after accounting for expected inflation have approached 3%, close to an 18-year high.

That is important for crypto.

If investors can earn a substantial return above inflation simply by lending money to the US government for 30 years, Bitcoin suddenly has to compete with a much more attractive risk-free alternative.

Was this QE ?

One distinction is particularly important: Treasury buybacks are not quantitative easing.

• The Federal Reserve can create new central-bank money. The Treasury cannot.

• The buybacks therefore do not amount to money printing. Instead, Treasury is changing the composition of outstanding government debt and potentially improving liquidity and tradability in parts of the Treasury market.

This does not mean the US government has established a formal ceiling on 30-year yields. But it does create an important new perception around the reaction function of policymakers.

This Has an Expiry Date

There is one detail investors should keep in mind.

• The enlarged Treasury buyback operations are currently scheduled to run from 9 September through 4 November 2026.

In other words, the policy intervention that helped trigger one of the year’s biggest crypto market moves is, as currently announced, a nine-week programme.

That makes the dates worth remembering.

9 September → 4 November 2026

The key question from here is whether the Treasury intervention becomes the beginning of a broader willingness to support long-term bond-market conditions or simply a temporary measure that markets eventually have to price out.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. What the 30-Year Yield Is Telling Us

The 30-year Treasury yield is increasingly reflecting the US fiscal picture rather than expectations for the next Fed move. The Fed controls short-term rates, while the long end depends on three things: how much debt the Treasury needs to issue, how much investors are willing to absorb, and where inflation is expected to settle over decades.

• The supply-demand imbalance is becoming harder to ignore. A July 9 auction of new 30-year Treasuries cleared at 5.058% : the highest since 2007, while five of the previous seven 20-year auctions tailed, signalling weaker demand.

• Foreign demand is also softening, with China, Japan and the UK the three largest foreign holders all reducing Treasury holdings in June.

What makes the move more significant is that July CPI cooled and PPI was flat, yet long-term yields still rose. That suggests the market is looking beyond near-term inflation and increasingly pricing in persistent deficits, tariff-related inflation risks and uncertainty around future Fed policy.

The implications extend across markets:

• Bonds: Higher yields mean falling prices for long-duration holders.

• Equities: A 5%+ risk-free long-term yield raises discount rates, putting pressure on high-growth and AI stocks.

• Housing: Mortgage rates track the long end more closely than the Fed’s overnight rate, so Fed cuts alone may not restore affordability.

Treasury’s expanded buybacks : from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation can provide a near-term demand backstop and contain some of the pressure.

But buybacks can ease the symptoms. They don’t solve the underlying fiscal problem.

2. Crypto's Washington Rally May Be Getting Ahead of Reality

President Trump urged Congress to pass a “fair version” of the CLARITY Act. The bill would establish a clearer federal market structure for digital assets and determine where the line sits between securities and commodities.

• The House has already passed its version 294–134, but the Senate remains the obstacle: the next cloture vote is scheduled for 15 September and requires 60 votes.

• The problem is that the market’s optimism may be running ahead of the legislative reality. The central dispute has shifted toward ethics restrictions, particularly around senior officials and their spouses issuing or sponsoring digital assets which is an issue reportedly not discussed at the White House meeting.

• At the same time, the SEC and CFTC are moving ahead independently, including the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets framework, which could create a pathway for certain digital assets to eventually move outside securities treatment as issuer dependence declines.

Regulation can move faster, but legislation is harder to reverse : which is precisely why the industry still wants CLARITY.

3. Washington Is Tightening the Financial Noose on Iran

The US is significantly escalating its economic pressure on Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said entities facilitating money laundering for Iran will be cut off from the US dollar system, with a major financial institution expected to face sanctions this week and secondary sanctions being expanded significantly.

The campaign extends beyond traditional finance, targeting digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping linked to Iran.

Importantly, China is not exempt, with countries continuing to do business with Iran warned that they could face the same financial isolation.

The broader implication for markets is that sanctions risk is once again becoming a cross-asset variable : particularly for oil, shipping and dollar liquidity. With tensions already elevated around the Strait of Hormuz, a broader enforcement campaign could add another layer of geopolitical risk premium to energy markets.

4. Bonds Are Telling a Different Story

• On Monday, the 10-year yield climbed more than 4bp to 4.705%, the 30-year rose to 5.251%, and the 2-year gained more than 3bp to 4.241% as crude prices moved higher and investors positioned ahead of CPI.

• The important part is that the pressure has not disappeared as the 30-year remains above 5.2%, pointing to a significant term premium at the long end rather than a simple repricing of near-term Fed policy.

• The Fed’s removal of forward guidance and an unusually divided FOMC also leave the polcicy path highly dependent on incoming data.

That makes the next few weeks unusually important.

4. ETF Insights

• US crypto ETFs delivered $2.6B of combined inflows last week, with Bitcoin ETFs taking $1.92B, including $1.33B into IBIT. While Ethereum ETFs added another $693M. ETH flows accelerated rising from $31M on Monday to $220M on Thursday, suggesting buyers were adding into strength rather than chasing a single-day move

  

  

• Interestingly May's move to similar levels lacked this ETF bid and ultimately faded. This time, institutional flows are providing a meaningful demand layer behind the rally.

• Meanwhile, ZEC surged 70.6%, driven largely by expectations around Grayscale’s planned Zcash ETF launch on 25 August, with the prospect of regulated institutional access triggering a sharp re-rating.

5. The Week Ahead

US inflation and growth data take centre stage, but all eyes will be on NVIDIA earnings and Jackson Hole, with markets looking for clues on AI spending, Fed policy and the path toward 2% inflation target.

6. Conclusion

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 74, firmly back in Greed territory after sitting in Fear and Extreme Fear just 30 days ago. Over the same period, global crypto market capitalisation surged 19%.

The speed of the reversal is a useful reminder of how quickly sentiment can change in crypto. Months of depressed prices and cautious positioning can disappear within days when momentum turns.

The takeaway remains simple: follow the charts, stay patient and respect volatility. Strong moves create opportunity, but they also make it easy to get chopped up by intraday wicks if position sizing and risk management aren’t disciplined.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

Digital assets underperformed both equities and precious metals through last week’s close. BTC traded around $63,100, down approximately 3.2%, after opening Friday at $63,418, before bouncing back toward $65,000 today, which is now a key resistance level. ETH was around $1,880, down 1.7%, before reclaiming the $1,900 range at the start of this week and currently trading around $1,917.

Roughly $390M left U.S. spot BTC ETFs between August 10 and 14, the heaviest weekly redemption since June, with IBIT absorbing the brunt, while ETH funds finished near flat to snap a five-week inflow streak. The speed of the reversal says much of the early-August bid was opportunistic capital, and the structural re-engagement we wanted evidence of remains unproven.

The good news this week came from stablecoins, where KPMG completed the first full audit of Tether’s financial statements with an unqualified opinion, with reserves exceeding liabilities by $6.8B and the engagement extending to the physical counting of its gold holdings. This opinion on Tether’s $180B liability stack will probably remove some reservations around settling over USDT rails from institutional and mainstream counterparties going forward.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• U.S. inflation remained broadly in line with expectations, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY and headline CPI at 3.4% YoY.

• Strategy sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6M at an average price of $64,262, bringing its total holdings down to 840,447 BTC.

• Harmony’s Layer 1 was exploited, with 4 billion ONE tokens, equivalent to roughly 26% of supply, minted without authorization.

• Layer Global raised $1.1B in its first close, led by Anton Levy, highlighting continued institutional capital flowing into the digital-asset ecosystem.

• The White House is set to host crypto executives next week for discussions around crypto policy, keeping regulation firmly in focus.

• JPMorgan terminated its banking relationship with Polymarket over regulatory concerns, underscoring the continuing friction between prediction markets and traditional financial institutions.

• Coinsbuy suffered a $7.9M hack, with the stolen funds subsequently laundered through Monero.

• Wintermute is targeting $1B of investment in HFT and AI data centers, with the firm aiming for 50% of revenue to eventually come from non-crypto activities.

• Coinbase established a tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi after securing an FSRA license, strengthening its push into tokenized financial assets and the Middle East.

• Customer data was exposed in security incidents involving Trezor and SafePal, highlighting that security risks extend beyond onchain exploits to the hardware-wallet ecosystem.

• The SEC is expected to unveil major crypto initiatives, while the CLARITY Act remains stalled, leaving the regulatory outlook in flux.

• Franklin Templeton received SEC clearance to use its onchain money market fund as collateral, another step toward integrating tokenized traditional assets into financial markets.

• Donald Trump was sued over plans to sell faster access to Truth Social posts, adding another legal development around the platform.

• On prediction markets, Polymarket currently puts a 66% probability on Anthropic’s IPO closing above a $1.8T market cap, showing how quickly prediction markets are expanding beyond crypto-native events.

2. Tokenized Stocks Are Becoming a Real Market

Tokenized assets are undergoing a noticeable shift, and TradFi perps are increasingly becoming the story.

Gold built the initial base: its price increased nearly 20%, while tokenized gold holdings roughly doubled from 524,000 to more than 1 million ounces. Equities are now changing the structure of the market. A year ago, precious metals represented almost the entire openly traded tokenized asset market. By June 2026, that share had fallen to 68%, while tokenized stocks and ETFs had gone from almost zero to 23% of the sector

Tokenized stocks now have a $2.7 billion market cap, roughly where stablecoins stood in September 2019. Ondo leads with $974.4 million, followed by xStocks at $609.3 million and Binance bStocks at $544.7 million.

This growth has been driven heavily by issuance. The market is moving from a handful of tokenized assets into a much broader catalog of stocks and ETFs, giving users more ways to access traditional financial assets onchain.

The market is already fairly concentrated by token count.

Bitget’s rStocks has 568 tokens, representing 37%, followed by Ondo with 406 (27%), xStocks with 183 (12%), Robinhood with 94 (6%) and Dinari with 82 (5%). rStocks and Ondo alone account for nearly two-thirds of all tokenized stocks.

But token count alone doesn’t tell who will ultimately win as the main factors are : liquidity, asset backing, redemption, regulation and distribution. A large catalog is useful, but it means little if users cannot trade efficiently or have confidence in what sits behind the token.

It’s surprising to see how quickly exchanges are entering the market.

Binance launched bStocks in June and reached 46 tokens, while Gate followed with gStocks in July and reached 63. The category was also the most-listed RWA sector on CEXs in H1 2026.

This is an important signal: exchanges increasingly see tokenized equities as a product category with enough demand to justify direct distribution rather than something that belongs only on specialist RWA platforms.

The number of tokenized stock holders has risen to 1.33 million, up 93% over the past 30 days, while monthly active addresses have increased 42% to more than 600,000.

Recent growth has been spread across products including xStocks and Ondo, as well as tokenized exposure to names such as SpaceX.

What’s the future

The prediction is that tokenized stocks will take an even larger share of the RWA market through the rest of 2026, while the gap between issuers becomes wider. Platforms with exchange distribution and deep liquidity should grow faster than issuers that only offer a large catalog. The focus should be on issuers and infrastructure with real distribution, reliable backing and growing secondary-market liquidity.

What started mainly with gold is now expanding into stocks, ETFs and other financial assets. The next signal is whether users continue trading and holding these products after the launch incentives disappear. If they do, tokenized equities will have moved beyond simply putting assets onchain and they will have started building a genuine market around them.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. The Fed Is Still Playing Defense

The market is increasingly betting that the Fed is done hiking for now.

September pricing shows a 65.6% probability of holding rates at 3.50–3.75%, while October has a 51.1% probability of a hold, with only limited odds of a hike. Even further out into 2027, markets are not pricing anything close to an aggressive hiking cycle. The message is pretty straightforward: the Fed looks set to stay on hold through the mid-term elections unless inflation forces its hand

The inflation data this week gave policymakers some breathing room. July headline PPI came in flat month-over-month at 0.0%, versus 0.2% expected, while CPI also came in cooler than anticipated. That was enough to push the implied probability of a September hike sharply lower, from around 55% a week earlier to roughly 33%. On the surface, this is exactly the kind of data the Fed wants to see after spending much of the cycle trying to get inflation under control.

But the the market should be reading this as a clean all-clear. Inflation is still above target, core services remain sticky, shelter costs have not fully broken, and energy has become a potential wildcard again. and another energy-driven inflation shock could arrive at exactly the wrong time.

2. The Consumer Is Starting to Matter More

The bigger surprise came from the other side of the Fed’s mandate.

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% MoM in July, badly missing expectations for a modest increase.

• That immediately complicated the soft-landing narrative. The S&P 500 still managed to post its third consecutive weekly gain, but Friday’s session showed investors were less willing to look through signs of a softer consumer.

• Mega-cap technology also saw selective profit-taking, with Broadcom falling 6% in a single session as investors questioned the debt financing structures being used to fund the AI infrastructure boom.

There is an interesting contrast underneath the headline consumer weakness. Gen Z, at least, still appears determined to spend on experiences. According to the 2026 Bank of America Summer Travel Outlook, 93% of Gen Z respondents either had a summer trip planned or intended to take one, compared with 85% of Millennials, 73% of Gen X and 62% of Boomers. Higher costs have not completely killed discretionary spending, but the retail-sales miss suggests the broader consumer may be becoming more selective.

3. The Fed's Uncomfortable Choice

This is where the macro setup gets genuinely interesting.

If the Fed treats the CPI and PPI prints as the stronger signal and keeps tightening because inflation is still above target, it risks tightening into a consumer slowdown that July retail sales has already started to expose.

But if it treats retail sales as the more important signal and holds, it risks looking behind the curve if oil-driven inflation comes back, particularly with Brent still moving in a volatile $85–$90 range and no durable resolution around Hormuz.

Warsh doesn’t really get to have it both ways. His credibility also matters here: after acknowledging to people close to him that his first ten weeks included communication missteps, the next few weeks become a particularly important test of whether he can reset expectations without creating another policy headache.

Our read is that the softer inflation data wins in the short term and the Fed holds again in September. Jackson Hole on August 27–29 gives Warsh an opportunity to reset the narrative before the September meeting, and we expect the market to pay very close attention to whether he sounds more concerned about inflation or growth. The Fed is threading a needle, and the margin for error is getting smaller.

4. Bonds Are Telling a Different Story

• On Monday, the 10-year yield climbed more than 4bp to 4.705%, the 30-year rose to 5.251%, and the 2-year gained more than 3bp to 4.241% as crude prices moved higher and investors positioned ahead of CPI.

• The important part is that the pressure has not disappeared as the 30-year remains above 5.2%, pointing to a significant term premium at the long end rather than a simple repricing of near-term Fed policy.

• The Fed’s removal of forward guidance and an unusually divided FOMC also leave the polcicy path highly dependent on incoming data.

That makes the next few weeks unusually important.

4. ETF Insights

• Bitcoin ETF flows have sharply reversed. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $390 million of net outflows across the five sessions through August 14, reversing more than $850 million of inflows during the first week of August. The selling was spread across the week: $144.7 million on Monday, $61.2 million on Wednesday, $131.1 million on Thursday and $57.6 million on Friday, while Tuesday’s $4.9 million inflow was largely immaterial. The shift is notable because it came alongside cooler inflation data and falling expectations for a September Fed hike

  

• Spot Ethereum ETFs also broke their five-week inflow streak, but outflows were only around $2.3 million. The contrast with Bitcoin is striking: the deterioration in institutional demand has been overwhelmingly concentrated in BTC rather than representing a broad-based withdrawal from crypto ETFs

  

• One week of outflows is not enough to call a structural reversal, but the swing from +$850 million to roughly -$390 million is too large to ignore. If BTC ETF outflows persist while ETH remains comparatively resilient, it could point to a change in institutional positioning rather than simply weaker appetite for crypto as a whole. For me, the next few weeks of flows will be more important than this week’s number alone.

5. The Week Ahead

The week’s attention is firmly on the Fed’s July meeting minutes, with UK inflation, U.S. labor data and global PMIs providing the key signals on inflation, growth and the path for global rates.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment has improved significantly, with the Fear & Greed Index at 41, although it remains in the fear zone, up from the 30 range last week. Despite BTC and ETH ETF outflows, this improvement is also reflected in price action. Any major news catalyst could determine the market’s real direction from here, especially with the VIX also sitting near support.

While miners are increasingly selling BTC to fund operations and AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, derivatives positioning has cooled, with BTC open interest down 3.4% to $47.4 billion and short-dated implied volatility near historical lows. In other words, the market looks calmer on the surface, but underneath it, liquidity, regulation and positioning are all shifting at the same time.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

The market finally got the catalyst it had been waiting for. US payrolls fell 23,000 in July, turning the Fed debate almost overnight and sending risk assets higher. Crypto’s resilience was more interesting than the headline rally. Bitcoin briefly pushed above $65,300 then fall to $63,200 levels currently at $63,500, while Ethereum continued to outperform, BTC still lagged equities despite the sharp shift in rate expectations.

At the same time, the market absorbed a string of uncomfortable headlines, from the Coldcard exploit and renewed bond-market pressure to uncertainty around US crypto legislation, without a meaningful deterioration in risk appetite. The move was broad: gold gained 7.25%, the Nasdaq rose 5.09%, the S&P 500 added 3.51%.

That leaves the market in an unusually delicate spot. The Fed suddenly looks less likely to tighten, institutional flows have returned, and risk appetite is improving, but the rally is still waiting for confirmation. Wednesday’s CPI is the first real test, while oil, long-end yields and the next round of ETF flows will determine whether last week’s move was the beginning of a broader rotation or simply another dip that got bought.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Polymarket is reportedly in talks to raise $1 billion at a $20 billion valuation.

• Coldcard hack losses have surpassed $100 million.

• MSCI has proposed removing Strategy and Metaplanet from its global indexes.

• Mastercard completed its acquisition of BVNK, expanding its stablecoin capabilities.

• Wells Fargo plans to launch tokenized deposits for corporate clients on its proprietary blockchain.

• Polymarket became an official ATP partner, combining tennis livestreaming with in-app trading.

• A power struggle has emerged at Ondo Finance following the death of its founder.

• OpenAI has slowed development of its Astra model over cybersecurity concerns.

• Major hedge funds including Citadel and Point72 were targeted in a wave of cyberattacks.

• Demis Hassabis is set to step down as CEO of Google DeepMind.

• The DOJ charged an NFT marketplace founder with misappropriating investor funds.

• Trump Media has unwound several cryptocurrency-related deals.

• Strategy reduced its Bitcoin holdings by 1,637 BTC, worth roughly $102.4 million.

• Hyperliquid upgraded TWAP orders and launched HIP-4 permissionless deployments on testnet.

• EIP-8361 was proposed to reduce Ethereum inflation by cutting staking yields.

• Maple adopted Ethena’s USDTB stablecoin as a $400 million liquidity buffer.

• TradeXYZ launched a $HYPE buyback using 12% of collected revenue.

• Dinari partnered with Circle to offer tokenized stocks to US investors.

• Anthropic is exploring a $36 billion debt package to finance its use of Google’s chips.

2. Bitcoin Fights Back as Crypto Regulation Stalls

The Coldcard hack has grown into something much bigger than a hardware wallet failure. Researchers now estimate that roughly 1,800 BTC, worth more than $116 million, has been drained across multibple waves of attacks. The important warning is that updating the firmware is not enough for users who generated a seed on affected firmware. Those wallets need to be moved to a completely new seed.

The more interesting story, however, is what happened next.

A volunteer group calling itself Bitcoin’s Red Team, led by developers including Calle and Rob Hamilton of AnchorWatch, launched a rapid security audit of the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. In just 27 hours, 16 researchers used AI models to examine more than 390 open source Bitcoin projects, uncovering nearly 5,000 security issues, including 85 critical vulnerabilities. The findings were reported privately to developers so they could be fixed before they became targets. OpenSats covered the computing costs.

There was no company behind the effort and no government program funding it. The Bitcoin community essentially saw a major security failure and organized its own response.

That is probably the most important takeaway from the Coldcard incident. The hack exposed a weakness, but it also showed how quickly the broader ecosystem can mobilize to find the next one before an attacker does.

There is still a strange obstacle in that effort. Rob Hamilton said OpenAI’s safety systems eventually blocked his security research despite his previous vetting as a researcher, forcing him to turn to Chinese open source AI models for continued analysis.

The irony is hard to miss: defenders are increasingly using AI to identify vulnerabilities, while the same tools can become difficult to access when the work looks too much like offensive security research.

BIP-110 Runs Into a Wall

The other major Bitcoin debate this week was BIP-110, whose mandatory signaling period began over the weekend

• Nodes enforcing the proposal rejected non-signaling blocks and briefly created an alternative chain.

• It produced just two blocks before stalling, while the main Bitcoin network continued operating normally and quickly moved far ahead. Major exchanges did not recognize the alternative chain.

For now, Bitcoin’s consensus rules remain unchanged.

Regardless of where you stand on BIP-110, the episode is another reminder of how difficult it is to change Bitcoin’s rules. Miner support alone is not enough. Any meaningful change ultimately needs broad acceptance across miners, node operators, developers and the economic users of the network.

BIP-110 supporters argue that the fight is not over and that node enforcement is more important than miner signaling. Some have even prepared contingency code involving a change to Bitcoin’s mining algorithm. Whether that develops into anything meaningful remains unclear, but the debate is far from settled.

Washington Stalls While Moscow Moves

The regulatory picture is moving in opposite directions across the world’s two major powers.

The CLARITY Act, which would establish a broader federal framework for digital assets in the US, failed to receive a Senate vote before the August recess. The Senate returns on September 14, but the political window is getting tighter. A key unresolved issue is the bill’s ethics provision, particularly restrictions around senior government officials and their families profiting from digital assets.

Prediction markets now put the probability of the bill becoming law this year at roughly 22%, down sharply from more than 75% in May.

After years of regulation through enforcement, the US still cannot agree on a lasting framework.

Russia, meanwhile, has already moved ahead with its own framework. Putin signed Russia’s first comprehensive crypto law on August 4, legalizing crypto trading through licensed exchanges under the central bank while maintaining a ban on using crypto for domestic payments.

The restrictions on ordinary Russians are significant. Retail investors face an annual purchase limit of roughly $3,750, meaning it would take around 17 years to accumulate one Bitcoin at current prices. Cross-border crypto settlements, however, are not subject to the same cap.

That tells us a lot about Moscow’s objective. Russia appears comfortable using crypto as a tool for international capital movement while keeping domestic adoption tightly controlled.

The contrast with the US is striking. Russia is moving quickly to regulate crypto on its own terms, while Washington is still debating the rules.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. The Jobs Market Finally Breaks the Fed's Hawkish Case

The July jobs report changed the rates story in one print. US payrolls fell 23,000, versus expectations for roughly an 80,000 gain, sending September hike odds from 55% to 40% and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.6% as risk assets rallied into the weekend.

The report was weak across the board: 264,000 people left the labor force, unemployment slipped to 4.1% largely because of that decline, and participation fell to its lowest level outside the Covid period since 1976. Wage growth also slowed to 3.2%, a five-year low, while previous months were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.

The details make the headline slightly less dramatic, but not enough to rescue the hawkish case.

Private payrolls actually increased by 30,000, while the government component fell by 53,000, a figure that could still be revised.

Still, for the rates market, weak labor data is weak labor data. The argument that the Fed needs to stay restrictive because the labor market remains too strong has taken a serious hit. Now Wednesday’s CPI becomes the next test. A soft inflation print would reinforce the rate-cut repricing, while a hot number could quickly put yields and the dollar back under pressure.

2. Hormuz Relief

Oil markets also caught a major de-escalation signal, with Brent falling 6.85% as Iran and Oman moved closer to a framework for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. But the market may be getting ahead of itself.

• Tehran says an agreement alone would not reopen the waterway and is demanding US concessions, including compensation, before normal transit resumes. Iran also struck another vessel in the strait even as negotiations continued.

• Actual traffic remains far below normal. Fewer than 30 ships crossed the strait during the entire week, compared with the much higher volumes seen before the conflict. That makes the oil move a bet on diplomacy rather than a reflection of a fully restored supply route.

For markets, that distinction matters. Lower crude prices could help keep Wednesday’s CPI softer, giving the Fed more room to ease. But the relief can disappear just as quickly if negotiations break down or another incident hits the waterway.

3. Bonds Are Hearing Two Different Stories

Treasury yields fell after the weak payrolls report, but the move has partly reversed. The 10-year yield is at 4.69%, up as crude prices moved higher, but still around 6bp lower on the week

• The 30-year yield is closed to 5.25e%, the level reached last Friday that marked its highest point since 2007. That spike followed what markets saw as a hawkish hold at the July FOMC meeting

  

• The bigger problem is still at the long end. Investors continue to demand a high term premium while the Fed has stepped away from forward guidance and remains divided. Three Fed officials dissented in favour of a hike in July, and several have continued to argue for tighter policy since then.

• One weak jobs report is enough to strengthen the view that the hiking cycle is over, but it is not enough to convince the bond market that the Fed has regained policy credibility. That is why the 30-year yield remains well above its level at the start of the quarter, even after Friday’s rally.

• The setup for Wednesday’s CPI is therefore unusually clean: the labour market is arguing for an end to tightening, while higher energy prices threaten to push inflation back up. CPI will determine which signal the front end of the Treasury curve chooses to believe.

• Jackson Hole, August 27–29, is the next major opportunity for the Fed to clarify its thinking before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

4. The Yen Intervention Is Already Fading

Japan’s attempt to strengthen the yen is also losing momentum. Just one week after coordinated US-Japan intervention pushed the currency to around 155 per dollar, the yen has weakened back toward 158.50, giving up nearly half of those gains.

It is another reminder that intervention can buy time, but it cannot permanently change the underlying forces driving a currency. The next question is whether Japan’s Ministry of Finance steps back in again or allows the yen to continue drifting weaker. For global markets, that matters because another intervention could quickly tighten liquidity and create volatility across rates, FX and risk assets.

4. ETF Insights

• Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs pulled in a combined $1.1 billion this week, their strongest inflow week since April, despite relatively muted market volumes. That combination points more toward a deliberate allocation from larger investors than a broad retail chase.

  

  

• The Coldcard hack may be creating an unexpected ETF tailwind. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted that several Bitcoin ETFs have recorded daily inflows since the exploit.

• If the pattern continues, it could mark a new institutional dynamic: a self-custody security incident may be pushing some holders toward regulated Bitcoin investment products rather than holding coins directly.

• Last week’s $61.5 million of outflows now look less like an institutional exit. The figure included a $265 million redemption on July 31, but the subsequent recovery in ETF flows and the broader rebound in semiconductors suggest those outflows were more likely part of the AI-led deleveraging episode than the start of a structural rotation away from crypto. It is still too early to say that the rotation has fully run its course.

5. The Week Ahead

The main event is Wednesday's CPI. After payrolls shifted the Fed debate, inflation now determines whether that repricing sticks.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment remains fragile, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 25, oscillating between Fear and Extreme Fear over the past few weeks.

Crypto had a stronger week as $1.1B flowed into BTC and ETH ETFs, with weaker US payrolls easing expectations for further Fed tightening. The focus now shifts to Wednesday's CPI and the fragile Hormuz situation, which will determine whether the recent macro repricing holds.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Global markets remained volatile following another eventful week for macro and earnings, yet crypto continued to demonstrate relative resilience. Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,200, holding broadly steady despite a hawkish Federal Reserve, rising long-term Treasury yields, and renewed weakness across parts of the technology sector. After briefly testing lower support last week at near $62,000 levels, Bitcoin recovered to remain comfortably within its recent consolidation range, while Ethereum outperformed, extending its relative strength as institutional interest continued to favour ETH ETFs over their Bitcoin counterparts.

Despite the mixed price action, the broader market continues to absorb a series of negative headlines remarkably well. The week saw $61.5 million of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a major Coldcard hardware wallet exploit that resulted in nearly $70 million of stolen Bitcoin, and a sharp repricing in global bond markets following the Fed’s hawkish hold. At the same time, Ethereum ETFs recorded another week of inflows, reinforcing the divergence in institutional positioning across major digital assets

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• A firmware flaw in Coldcard hardware wallets enabled an attacker to drain over $70 million in Bitcoin from 1,196 wallets within 41 minutes, without physically accessing any device.

• Storj Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, adding to a difficult month for the crypto industry alongside BitMEX’s permanent shutdown and Movement Labs’ bankruptcy filing.

• The U.S. Senate postponed the CLARITY Act until after its August recess to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill, with Polymarket odds of passage in 2026 dropping to 37%.

• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $105 million, reducing its Bitcoin holdings to 842,138 BTC.

• Circle acquired IBM’s blockchain patent portfolio, significantly expanding its intellectual property portfolio.

• HashKey announced plans to acquire Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX).

• Stripe is reportedly in talks to acquire AI platform OpenRouter in a deal valued at around $10 billion.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.

• Aave plans to deprecate 50 asset reserves while winding down several Layer-2 deployments.

• Citadel acquired a majority of Situational Awareness’ assets following the fund’s liquidation.

• Ondo Finance is evaluating acquisition opportunities valued between $250 million and $500 million.

• Coinbase will launch US500 equity index perpetual-style futures on August 17.

• Polymarket now assigns just a 19% probability to the U.S. government banning open-source AI in 2026.

• Anthropic is reportedly exploring an additional $36 billion debt package, on top of its previous $35 billion financing, to fund expanded access to Google’s AI chips.

• According to The New York Times, OpenAI’s founders and employees collectively own 48.93% of the company, which was most recently valued at $852 billion.

2. Coldcard Exploit Shakes Confidence in Hardware Wallets

One of the biggest self-custody security incidents in recent years unfolded on July 30 after attackers drained more than 1,082 BTC, worth roughly $70 million, from 1,196 Bitcoin wallets in under an hour.

Galaxy Research later linked two additional waves of theft to the same exploit, bringing the total stolen to approximately $89 million. Unlike most wallet compromises, this attack did not rely on phishing, malware, or stolen seed phrases. Instead, it exploited a flaw that had quietly existed in Coldcard’s firmware for more than four years.

The vulnerability originated from a build configuration error introduced in March 2021. Instead of generating recovery seeds using the device’s dedicated hardware random number generator, affected Coldcard devices unknowingly relied on a software fallback that produced far more predictable outputs. According to Block’s security team, the fallback derived randomness from values such as the device’s chip identifier and internal timer state rather than truly unpredictable entropy, significantly reducing the number of possible seed combinations an attacker needed to test

The impact was substantial.

Coinkite estimates that affected Mk3 devices provided only around 40 bits of effective entropy, while newer Mk4, Mk5, and Coldcard Q models reached roughly 72 bits, far below the level expected for cryptographic key generation. With enough computing resources, attackers could reconstruct potential seed phrases offline and compare the resulting public keys against addresses visible on the Bitcoin blockchain until a match was found, allowing wallets to be emptied without ever accessing the physical device.

Although Coinkite released emergency firmware updates within a day of disclosure, the patch only prevents newly generated wallets from being affected.

Any wallet whose recovery seed was created using the vulnerable firmware remains exposed, meaning simply updating the device or importing the same seed into another hardware wallet offers no protection. The only effective mitigation is generating an entirely new seed on patched firmware and transferring funds to the new wallet. Users who created their seeds using manual dice rolls or added sufficient external entropy were not impacted by this specific vulnerability.

The incident has also sparked discussion around the growing role of AI in cybersecurity. Coinkite CEO Rodolfo Novak suggested that the flaw may have been identified by attackers using AI-assisted code analysis before it was detected internally, highlighting how advances in AI are accelerating both defensive security research and offensive vulnerability discovery. While there is no confirmation that AI was directly responsible, the incident underscores how the same tools being adopted for software auditing are increasingly available to attackers as well.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said the incident serves as a reminder that "even hardware wallets can have bugs" and that "nothing is 100% secure." He recommended spreading funds across multiple wallets as a way to reduce risk, while noting that managing multiple wallets also comes with its own trade-offs.

In our view, the attack serves as a reminder that hardware wallets are only as secure as the software responsible for generating their cryptographic keys. A single implementation error in the random number generation process remained unnoticed for years despite the wallet’s open-source codebase and reputation within the Bitcoin community. For long-term holders who rarely interact with their devices after initial setup, vulnerabilities like this are particularly dangerous because funds can remain at risk long before users become aware of the problem. As institutional adoption of Bitcoin continues to grow, the incident reinforces that secure self-custody depends not only on keeping private keys offline, but also on ensuring the underlying systems generating those keys are fundamentally sound.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. The Bond Market Challenged the Fed's Message

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the meeting was anything but uneventful.

• Three policymakers: Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented in favor of a 25 bps rate hike, marking the largest hawkish dissent since 2016.

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also continued his policy of removing forward guidance from official statements, leaving markets with little visibility on the path ahead.

The market’s response was clear.

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.25%, its highest level since 2007 while the 10-year Treasury briefly touched 4.73%. At the same time, the 2-year yield fell to around 4.24%, producing a sharp steepening of the yield curve.

Rather than pricing stronger growth, investors appeared to demand a higher risk premium for holding long-term U.S. debt, reflecting growing uncertainty around inflation and fiscal credibility. The Dow Jones fell more than 840 points following the decision, while attention now shifts to the Jackson Hole Symposium (August 27-29) ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

2. AI Spending Is No Longer the Concern, Demand Is

For nearly two years, investors viewed rising AI capital expenditure as a risk. This earnings season changed that narrative. The market is no longer focused on how much companies spend, but whether they can prove that demand already exists to justify those investments.

• Microsoft became the clearest example. The company reported 43% Azure growth while its commercial backlog surged to $678 billion, up 84% year over year, with management stating that cloud demand continues to exceed available capacity.

• The stock rallied nearly 9%, adding approximately $450 billion in market value in a single session.

• Amazon reinforced the same message a day later, becoming the first company to generate more than $200 billion in quarterly revenue.

• AWS revenue grew 37%, its fastest pace since 2021, while CEO Andy Jassy said annual capital expenditure, expected to reach around $220 billion, is driven by customer demand the company still cannot fully meet. Investors rewarded that visibility, pushing Amazon shares roughly 10% higher.

The takeaway is becoming clear: AI infrastructure spending is no longer viewed as a speculative bet when companies can demonstrate tangible demand through expanding backlogs, capacity constraints, or contracted future revenue.

3. Labor Market Signals Remain Mixed

Fresh U.S. labor data continued to paint a mixed picture for policymakers. June JOLTS job openings fell to 7.36 million, below expectations of 7.44 million and down from 7.54 million previously, suggesting hiring demand is gradually cooling.

• The softer reading partially offset stronger manufacturing data earlier in the week, leaving markets waiting for Friday’s employment report to determine whether labor conditions are easing enough to support future policy easing.

• With inflation remaining sticky and employment still resilient, incoming labor market data continues to be one of the most important variables for the Fed over the coming months.

4. Markets Continue Rewarding Execution, Not Expectations

Corporate earnings once again highlighted how demanding investors have become.

• AMD reported $11.5 billion in revenue, up 50% year over year, while Data Center revenue surged 107% to $6.7 billion, comfortably beating expectations.

• Despite the strong results, the stock fell roughly 8% after hours as investors focused on future expectations rather than headline numbers.

The reaction mirrors similar post-earnings declines seen recently in companies such as Micron and Samsung, reinforcing that strong results alone are no longer enough. Markets continue rewarding businesses that can pair strong financial performance with convincing evidence of sustained future demand, particularly across AI infrastructure and semiconductor supply chains.

4. ETF Insights

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$61.5 million in net outflows during the week, ending three consecutive weeks of inflows. The bulk of the selling came on July 31, when investors pulled approximately US$265 million in a single session, making it the week's defining flow event

  

• In contrast, US spot Ethereum ETFs extended their positive momentum, recording US$27 million in net inflows and marking a fourth consecutive week of positive flows. The divergence suggests institutional demand remains selective rather than exiting digital assets altogether

  

• The sharp month-end Bitcoin ETF redemptions, which coincided with the Fed's hawkish hold, point toward tactical portfolio rebalancing and near-term de-risking rather than a broad risk-off move. At the same time, continued inflows into Ethereum ETFs indicate that institutional capital is rotating within the digital asset market instead of leaving the asset class altogether.

5. The Week Ahead

Markets will closely watch this week's employment data, particularly Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report, for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's September policy decision. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations, while signs of labor market cooling may support expectations for future easing.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment remains fragile, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipping to 25, back in Extreme Fear, oscillating between Fear and Extreme Fear over the past few weeks.

While macro uncertainty, higher Treasury yields, and mixed ETF flows continue to weigh on risk appetite, the market has also shown notable resilience. Bitcoin ended July with gains despite a hawkish Fed, AI-driven equity volatility, and the Coldcard security incident, while Ethereum ETFs continued attracting institutional inflows even as Bitcoin ETFs saw renewed outflows. With attention now shifting to this week's U.S. labor market data and the Federal Reserve's next policy signals, the market remains caught between improving long-term fundamentals and cautious near-term positioning.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Global markets remained under pressure for a second consecutive week, but crypto once again showed relative resilience. Bitcoin is trading near $64,500, up roughly 1% from last week, after opening Monday around $65,400 before briefly slipping into the $62,700 range.

Ethereum outperformed, climbing approximately 4.4% over the week to trade near $1,912. Despite weakness across broader risk assets, Bitcoin continues to hold key technical support. The $62,000-$62,500 zone has absorbed selling through a technology-led equity sell-off, renewed geopolitical tensions, an oil price shock and a 20-basis-point jump in the US 10-year Treasury yield.

The higher-low structure established earlier this month remains intact, although the market is yet to test the upper end of its range. A move above the mid-June high of $67,250 would confirm the recovery, while a break below $62,000 would shift focus back toward $60,000 and the 200-week moving average beneath it.

This week could prove pivotal. Markets are entering one of the busiest macro calendars of the quarter, with the FOMC rate decision taking centre stage. Investors will be watching closely to see whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals a more hawkish stance, especially with markets assigning a meaningful probability to another rate hike. Alongside the Fed, traders will also digest key US inflation data, GDP figures and earnings from several technology giants, all of which could influence broader risk sentiment.

Meanwhile, traditional markets continue to struggle. All three major US indices posted a second consecutive weekly decline, with the S&P 500 ending the week at 7,411.98 (-0.6%), the Nasdaq falling 2.1% to 24,975.82, and the Dow Jones slipping 0.4% to 51,947.25 despite a late Friday rebound. Beneath the surface, weakness was concentrated in technology, with Tesla suffering a 14.5% one-day decline : its worst session since March 2025, leaving the stock down 24% in July and highlighting the growing divergence between equity markets and crypto’s relative resilience.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Binance secures Philippines sandbox licence as website access is restored, with fiat payment channels expected to launch soon.

• HashKey to acquire Asia Pacific Exchange (APX) in Singapore.

• Strategy completes a $25 million STRC stock buyback.

• Circle acquires IBM’s blockchain patent portfolio.

• Hyperliquid’s monthly perpetual futures volume reaches a record 16.5% of Binance’s volume.

• Balaji Srinivasan’s Network School signs an MOU with Kazakhstan after losing its licence in Malaysia.

• Galaxy Digital leads a $130 million acquisition of Ripple shares.

• AFX Trade exploited for $24 million on Arbitrum, making 2026 the worst year for crypto hacks on record.

• BitMEX to cease operations on 23 September.

• Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev’s X account hacked to promote a memecoin scam.

• Odos to wind down operations effective 30 July.

• World Foundation raises $52.5 million through a WLD token sale.

• Robinhood and Crypto.com are exploring a partnership in prediction markets.

• DeepSeek suspends its fundraising round following leaked comments from its CEO.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent freezes a $130 million crypto wallet linked to Iran’s IRGC.

2. The Great Exchange Shakeout

For most of crypto’s history, an exchange shutting down usually meant something had broken.

A hack, an insolvency event or another collapse that rattled confidence across the market.

This week was different.

Within three days, BitMEX, the exchange that introduced perpetual futures, and BitMart, which claimed more than 13 million users across 180 countries, both announced plans to wind down operations.

Neither blamed insolvency, a security breach or regulatory action. Instead, both pointed to broad “operating conditions” and strategic decisions.

Those explanations suggest a different problem. Not a sudden failure, but a business that no longer works

The market reacted the same way.

Bitcoin spent the week trading between roughly $64,000 and $66,900, while the exchanges’ own tokens collapsed.

• BMEX fell more than 93% from pre-announcement levels.

  

• BMX lost roughly 81% over the week.

  

Investors weren’t pricing in another industry-wide crisis. They were repricing two businesses that had already lost their competitive position.

Neither exchange was a minor player.

• BitMEX once dominated crypto derivatives. Between 2018 and 2020, it processed close to $8 billion in daily volume, briefly controlled more than half of the global derivatives market and surpassed $1 trillion in annual trading volume in 2019. It pioneered perpetual swaps but couldn’t stop liquidity migrating to Binance, Bybit and OKX.

• BitMart reached the same outcome through a different path. It survived its $150-196 million hot wallet hack in 2021 and published an upbeat first-half report only nine days before announcing its closure, pointing to higher assets under management, new products and additional regulatory licences. The contrast shows that growth metrics matter little if the economics behind the business continue to weaken.

These closures reflect a broader shift in how exchanges compete.

Liquidity is concentrating

Exchange businesses run on network effects.

More liquidity attracts more traders.

More traders tighten spreads.

Better execution attracts even more liquidity.

That cycle increasingly favours the largest platforms. Binance now processes roughly $69 billion in daily perpetual futures volume, while Bybit handles about $30 billion. For active traders, execution quality matters more than simply having another venue to trade.

Decentralised exchanges are taking market share

The pressure no longer comes only from other centralised exchanges.

It also comes from on-chain trading.

The share of perpetual futures traded on decentralised exchanges has climbed from roughly 2% in early 2024 to more than 10% by early 2026. Hyperliquid alone processed around $1.59 trillion in cumulative trading volume within a few months. Traders are proving they’ll move meaningful liquidity on-chain when speed, depth and fees match centralised alternatives.

Earlier generations of DeFi asked traders to sacrifice performance for self-custody. That trade-off is disappearing with improving UX.

Operating an exchange is getting more expensive

Compliance costs continue to rise. With this global exchanges now need larger compliance teams, stronger AML controls, licences across multiple jurisdictions and broader reporting obligations. For smaller exchanges, those fixed costs become difficult to justify without meaningful trading volume or a product that stands apart.

That changes the question every exchange has to answer.

It is no longer how to attract users.

It is why traders should choose one venue over another.

That is why this cycle differs from 2022.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao argued that buying struggling exchanges often creates more problems than it solves because ageing infrastructure may contain hidden security flaws or undiscovered backdoors. Building a new platform can be less risky than inheriting an old one. Large exchanges no longer need to buy competitors when liquidity is already flowing in their direction.

Centralised exchanges are not disappearing.

The exchanges built on spot markets, perpetual futures and referral campaigns alone are finding it much harder to survive.

The market no longer rewards simply being another exchange. It rewards scale, liquidity, execution and a reason for traders to keep coming back.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. AI Spending Stays Strong, But Investors Sell the News

The week’s biggest earnings reinforced that the AI investment cycle is accelerating but investors are becoming less willing to reward it.

• Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion (from $190 billion previously), warned spending will rise further in 2027, reported negative Q2 free cash flow of $5.9 billion, and disclosed $49.6 billion of stock sales in June to fund AI infrastructure

  

• Tesla also missed profit estimates, with Elon Musk reiterating that 2026 will remain a massive investment year, guiding for over $25 billion in capex and saying the company should spend as fast as possible without being wasteful.

Markets focused on the cost rather than the opportunity. The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index fell 4.8%, erasing nearly $790 billion in market value, its steepest one-day decline since the April 2025 tariff selloff.

2. Geopolitics and Tariffs Revive Inflation Risks

Geopolitical tensions returned to the forefront after Houthi forces struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, while the US carried out its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. President Trump warned of “major military punishment” and said the US would hold Tehran responsible for any further attacks on shipping.

A second inflationary pressure arrived on Friday as Trump’s 10–12.5% Section 301 tariffs on imports from around 60 trading partners officially took effect, although some energy products were exempted. Markets found some relief later in the week after Reuters reported that Pakistan is exploring renewed US-Iran negotiations backed by China, helping oil retreat from its highs.

3. Bond Markets Turn More Hawkish

Higher oil prices, tariffs and resilient economic data triggered another sharp repricing in rates.

• The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.70%, its fifth straight daily gain and highest level since January 2025, while the 2-year yield briefly reached 4.37%. The latest US 5-year Treasury auction cleared at 4.408%, the highest in 18 months, coming just days after the 30-year yield touched a 19-year high.

• According to CME FedWatch, markets now price over an 80% chance of a September rate hike, up from 52% a week ago

  

• While odds of a hike at this week’s meeting have risen to around 38% after being near zero following June’s soft CPI

  

Supporting the move, July Flash PMIs showed stronger US services activity alongside firmer price pressures, while the ECB kept rates unchanged but is increasingly expected to hike in September.

4. Record Earnings Aren't Enough for AI Leaders

The semiconductor sector highlighted how elevated expectations have become.

• SK Hynix posted record Q2 revenue of roughly $57.3 billion and operating profit of $43.7 billion, with revenue rising 257% YoY (+51% QoQ) and operating profit jumping 557% YoY (+61% QoQ).

• DRAM prices climbed 30% QoQ, NAND prices rose in the mid-50% range, and management guided for around $34 billion in 2026 capex.

Despite the record results, both revenue and profit missed consensus estimates. Shares fell 8% on the day and are now 52% below recent highs, underscoring that investors are demanding more than just strong growth.

NVIDIA remains a key customer, with reports pointing to an expanded multi-year partnership.

4. ETF Insights

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded US$33.8 million of net inflows for last week, but trading activity fell to its lowest full-week level since October 2024, suggesting institutional participation slowed despite Bitcoin holding up relatively well

  

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw US$225 million of net outflows on Thursday, breaking a week-long inflow streak of roughly US$999 million. While a single day’s outflow isn’t alarming on its own, it signals that institutional demand is becoming more cautious as macro headwinds intensify.

• US spot Ethereum ETFs attracted US$103.9 million in weekly inflows, comfortably outperforming Bitcoin.

  

• However, with the 2-year Treasury yield around 4.34% and markets pricing over an 80% probability of a September Fed hike, higher risk-free yields continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Crypto has remained resilient so far, but sustaining ETF demand will likely depend on the path of interest rates.

5. The Week Ahead

Investors will be watching whether softer inflation and resilient economic growth strengthen the case for future monetary easing, while the Fed's policy decision and Big Tech earnings are expected to drive volatility across global markets.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment improved modestly this week, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rising to 29 from last month’s Extreme Fear levels. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, risk appetite strengthened as markets increasingly priced in the possibility of Fed rate Hike. Investors are currently assigning a meaningful probability to both the July and September FOMC meetings, with around a 38% chance of a July rate hike, making this one of the most uncertain Fed decisions in recent months.

Historically, prolonged periods of Fear/Extreme fear have often coincided with market capitulation and attractive buying opportunities, although sentiment can remain depressed for longer than investors expect.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

Bitcoin spent another week proving its resilience, holding comfortably above the $64,000 mark, breaking the $65,000 resistance at currently at $66,300 despite a challenging macro backdrop. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, sharp swings in oil prices and continued uncertainty around the Federal Reserve would typically weigh on risk assets, yet Bitcoin remained remarkably stable. A softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print further improved sentiment, helping the cryptocurrency recover toward the upper end of its recent trading range as investors grew more confident that the Fed may have room to ease policy later this year.

While macro headlines continued to dominate market direction, underlying demand painted a more constructive picture. U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs returned to net inflows after weeks of heavy redemptions, suggesting institutional investors are once again accumulating on weakness even as retail sentiment remains firmly in Extreme Fear.

Corporate developments also remained in focus. Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, chose to strengthen its balance sheet rather than add to its Bitcoin reserves, raising $263.5 million through the sale of common shares while leaving its holdings unchanged at 843,775 BTC. The move reflects prudent treasury management ahead of preferred share dividend and debt obligations—not a shift in conviction. If anything, the company once again demonstrated that it would rather raise fresh capital and dilute shareholders than sell a single Bitcoin.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Donald Trump-founded Trump Media announced that Wall Street trading firms will be offered paid access to the president’s Truth Social posts before they’re shared with the public : a move that could be interpreted as selling insider trading information.

• A $288 million Coinbase Prime transfer has put the U.S. government’s crypto rules under an early operational test. U.S. government-tagged wallets sent 3,941 BTC and 30,007 ETH to Coinbase Prime over roughly eight hours, according to Lookonchain. Arkham placed the combined value at about $288.33 million.

• On July 17, FTX Recovery Trust and FTX Trading Ltd. announced their 5th major distribution to creditors, which is scheduled to begin on July 31, 2026. This round is expected to release approximately $900 million to eligible holders of allowed claims.

• The U.S. Senate has unanimously declared that Sam Bankman-Fried should never win clemency, passing a resolution on Wednesday that says the convicted FTX founder should "under no circumstances" receive a pardon or commutation of his 25-year sentence.

• Bitcoin Less Volatile Than South Korean Stocks Amid AI Market Correction

• Crypto.com Hits $20B Valuation After $400M Citadel Securities Investment.

2. The CLARITY Act Is Back in Play

One of the biggest overhangs for the crypto market may finally be starting to lift.

This week, reports emerged that the White House has agreed on an ethics package for the CLARITY Act and circulated the proposed language to key Republican senators.

While the exact details haven’t been made public, the development is significant because it addresses the single issue that has stalled the bill for weeks.

• At its core, the CLARITY Act is designed to do something the U.S. crypto industry has been asking for since Bitcoin first entered the mainstream: establish clear, permanent rules for digital assets.

• Instead of relying on shifting regulatory interpretations or enforcement actions, the legislation would define which assets fall under the SEC, which belong under the CFTC, and how exchanges, custodians, tokenized assets, stablecoins and decentralized finance platforms should be regulated.

For institutional investors, this isn’t just another crypto bill, it’s the foundation for a predictable regulatory environment.

The biggest hurdle, however, hasn’t been about crypto itself. It has been politics.

• Several Senate Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, refused to support the legislation unless it included strict ethics provisions preventing the President, senior government officials and their families from profiting from digital assets while in office.

• The issue gained even more attention after President Trump’s latest financial disclosures showed more than $1 billion in income tied to his family’s crypto businesses. Without Democratic support, the bill has struggled to secure the 60 Senate votes needed to advance.

If the White House has now agreed to compromise on that ethics language, it removes the primary obstacle that has been holding negotiations back.

Markets noticed. Prediction platform Polymarket immediately raised the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law following the news, although expectations remain far below where they traded earlier this year.

In other words, investors acknowledge the path forward looks better, but the market is still far from convinced that legislation will ultimately reach the finish line.

That skepticism is understandable.

The Senate faces an August 7 deadline before lawmakers leave for summer recess, leaving only a narrow window to negotiate the final text, secure bipartisan support and, if amended, send the bill back to the House before it can eventually reach President Trump’s desk.

Why does this matter so much?

• Because regulatory uncertainty has arguably become the single largest factor preventing traditional financial institutions from committing more aggressively to digital assets.

• While Bitcoin has already achieved a relatively comfortable position as a commodity with regulated futures and spot ETFs, much of the broader industry still operates under uncertain rules that can change with every new SEC leadership team or court ruling.

• A comprehensive market structure framework would give banks, asset managers, exchanges and custodians greater confidence to expand crypto services, invest in infrastructure and launch new products without constantly questioning how regulators might reinterpret existing laws.

Research firm NYDIG recently described the CLARITY Act as “the industry’s most important forward catalyst,” and it’s difficult to disagree. Large pools of institutional capital have repeatedly signaled that regulatory clarity, not demand is the missing ingredient keeping them on the sidelines.

If Congress can finally deliver durable legislation instead of temporary regulatory guidance, it could unlock the next phase of institutional adoption across the digital asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin itself may not be the biggest direct beneficiary, but it would almost certainly be one of the largest indirect winners. Greater institutional participation, improved custody infrastructure, deeper lending and collateral markets, and broader integration into the traditional financial system would all strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term investment case while simultaneously improving the outlook for exchanges, tokenization projects and many altcoins.

The legislation is far from guaranteed to pass, and investors should avoid treating recent headlines as a done deal. But for the first time in weeks, negotiations appear to be moving in a constructive direction.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. Middle East Conflict Escalates, Raising Energy and Infrastructure Risks

• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified this week after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it had struck Amazon Web Services’ cloud infrastructure in Bahrain in retaliation for recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

• While the claim remains unverified, it follows previous confirmed attacks on regional cloud infrastructure earlier this year, highlighting that critical digital infrastructure is increasingly becoming part of modern conflict.

Beyond the headlines, the broader trend is more important. Over the past two weeks, missile and drone strikes have targeted U.S. military bases, energy facilities and commercial shipping routes across the Gulf, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply as shipping companies reassess regional risks. The disruption has pushed Brent crude back above $90 per barrel, renewing concerns that prolonged geopolitical instability could fuel higher energy prices and reignite inflationary pressures globally.

2. U.S. Debt Hits Another Record

The U.S. national debt surpassed $39.5 trillion for the first time ever this week. For perspective, U.S. GDP stands at roughly $31.9 trillion, while the stock market is valued at over $75 trillion, putting the market at around 236% of GDP : a historically elevated level. Current projections suggest federal debt could reach $48–50 trillion by 2030 and nearly $64 trillion by 2036.

Despite these eye-catching numbers, investors continue favouring U.S. equities. The world’s largest economy, deepest capital markets and the dollar’s reserve currency status continue to attract global capital, while corporate innovation and earnings have historically outpaced concerns over rising government debt. The long-term risk remains real, but for now, markets continue betting on America’s productivity rather than its liabilities.

3. Earnings Season Sends a Clear Message: Guidance Matters More Than Headlines

One of the biggest takeaways from this earnings season is that investors are rewarding future expectations and not past performance.

• Netflix delivered another strong quarter, reporting 13.4% year-over-year revenue growth, yet the stock fell sharply after management issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the coming quarter.

• The reaction mirrors what investors saw with TSMC earlier this month: even excellent results are no longer enough if management signals slower growth ahead.

Markets have become increasingly forward-looking, with valuations already reflecting strong earnings. As a result, companies must not only beat expectations but also convince investors that growth can continue. That raises the bar significantly for the remainder of earnings season, particularly across technology and AI-related names.

4. AI Infrastructure Trade Broadens Beyond Nvidia

While Nvidia remains the face of the AI boom, investors are increasingly looking beyond GPUs toward the broader infrastructure powering artificial intelligence.

• Apple briefly reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable company this week after investors rewarded its relatively disciplined AI spending strategy.

• Rather than competing in the expensive race to build massive AI infrastructure, Apple is focusing on integrating AI into its existing ecosystem i.e. a lower-risk approach that appears to be resonating with the market.

• Meanwhile, the biggest momentum came from memory chip manufacturers. Micron surged after UBS projected the company could generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow through 2028 and potentially repurchase over 40% of its outstanding shares once current buyback restrictions expire later this year.

• The optimism stems from structural AI demand, long-term supply agreements with hyperscale customers and expectations that memory shortages will persist for several years

  

The rally quickly spread across the sector, with SK Hynix, Western Digital, Seagate, SanDisk and Kioxia all posting double-digit gains.

It’s clear that investors are beginning to view the AI opportunity as much broader than a handful of chip designers. Capital is increasingly flowing into the companies supplying the memory, storage and infrastructure required to support AI at scale.

4. ETF Insights

• Last week marked a tentative but encouraging recovery in crypto ETF flows, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum products returning to net inflows after a volatile start to the week.

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed a sizable outflow (reported around $400M+ on Monday in some trackers) but rebounded with consistent buying over the following days, ending the week with roughly net $75.67M in inflows.

  

• The reversal suggests institutional investors continue to buy market weakness, reinforcing conviction despite cautious sentiment and relatively thin liquidity.

• Ethereum Spot ETFs, in particular, recorded a solid +$105.44 million weekly inflow as of July 17, building on the prior week’s +$84.42M and reversing the heavier outflows seen in late June. This marks one of ETH’s stronger recent performances and suggests institutional appetite is broadening beyond Bitcoin

  

5. The Week Ahead

It is expected to be a relatively quiet week for economic data and central bank commentary, as the Federal Reserve enters its blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, shifting investor focus toward corporate earnings and forward guidance.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment remained in Extreme Fear, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipping to 25 from 29 last week, despite improving market fundamentals. The disconnect is notable: institutional investors continued adding exposure through positive ETF inflows, while on-chain metrics such as Bitcoin’s hash rate remained resilient. At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices have added another layer of macro uncertainty, keeping retail sentiment subdued.

Historically, prolonged periods of extreme fear have often coincided with market capitulation and attractive buying opportunities, although sentiment can remain depressed for longer than investors expect.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Bitcoin continued to demonstrate remarkable resilience last week, holding firmly above $62,000 despite one of the most volatile geopolitical backdrops of the year. As markets digested renewed US airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice,” Bitcoin barely reacted and has since recovered to around $64,700, once again testing the crucial $65,000 resistance level. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data further strengthened the recovery, suggesting that the wave of panic selling seen earlier in the month may finally be behind us.

The broader macro environment, however, remains firmly in the driver’s seat. Last week’s fragile post-conflict calm quickly unraveled after US-Iran negotiations were paused during Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral, followed by Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and multiple rounds of US retaliatory strikes. Energy markets responded immediately, with Brent crude surging 6.3% during the week before opening near $79 following the weekend escalation. Higher oil prices briefly pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.57%, while markets increased the probability of another Fed rate hike to roughly 61%, reversing much of the optimism created by June’s softer payroll report.

Despite the macro uncertainty, institutional demand showed early signs of stabilizing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $282 million in net inflows, ending an eight-week streak of outflows and providing a welcome shift in sentiment. While a single week of positive flows doesn’t establish a trend, it suggests institutions are beginning to rebuild exposure as market conditions improve. Attention now turns to this week’s U.S. inflation data, the first report to fully reflect the recent surge in oil prices.

With the July 28-29 FOMC meeting approaching, another soft CPI print could weaken expectations for further tightening, while a hotter-than-expected reading would likely reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and keep macro volatility elevated.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Morgan Stanley filed applications for spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs under the tickers MSSE and MSOL, each carrying a 0.14% management fee.

• Interactive Brokers expanded its crypto offering by adding 12 new digital assets and introduced stablecoin withdrawals through integrations with Zero Hash and Paxos.

• Nous Research raised over $75 million at a $1.5 billion valuation, approximately 50% higher than its previous token valuation.

• Tether led a $7 million Series A funding round for Pact Labs, supporting the development of USADT, a stablecoin focused on payroll, wages and payment infrastructure.

• The UK’s HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) adopted a “no gains, no losses” tax treatment for crypto lending and liquidity pool transactions, providing greater tax clarity for users.

• Strategy raised $466 million through its at-the-market (ATM) equity program, with the filing confirming no change to its Bitcoin holdings.

• Donald Trump suggested that Bitcoin could eventually be included in future U.S. government investment accounts, signalling continued political support for digital assets.

• BONK DAO suffered a $20 million governance attack, highlighting ongoing governance and security risks within decentralized protocols.

• BNB Chain unveiled plans for a new Layer-1 blockchain targeting 100,000 transactions per second with sub-50 millisecond finality.

• Paradigm closed a $1.2 billion fund focused on backing AI and crypto startups, reinforcing venture capital’s continued conviction in the sector.

• Arbitrum approved a new revenue-sharing model that will allocate 10% of Robinhood Chain fees to its ecosystem and 8% to the DAO treasury.

• Dinari and tZero partnered to build infrastructure for tokenized U.S. equities, further advancing the development of on-chain capital markets.

• JPMorgan identified the limited adoption of public blockchains as one of the primary long-term risks to Bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem.

2. CLARITY Act Enters Its Final Stretch

Washington wasn’t expecting crypto regulation to become part of the week’s biggest political story. The sudden death of Senator Lindsey Graham unexpectedly thrust the CLARITY Act back into the spotlight after President Trump urged the Senate to pass the bill “in memory of a great man,” framing digital asset regulation alongside AI as a strategic race the U.S. cannot afford to lose to China.

Graham himself wasn’t one of the bill’s architects, but his passing has added fresh political urgency to legislation that has been stuck in the Senate for months.

Beyond the headlines, Graham’s death also changed the legislative math.

• Republicans now hold a narrower 52-47 majority in the Senate, making the already difficult 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster even harder to reach.

• The biggest obstacle remains Section 604, which aims to protect developers from money transmitter rules if they never control customer funds. While the crypto industry views this as essential protection for software developers, Democrats and law enforcement agencies argue the language could unintentionally shield actors facilitating illicit transactions.

• Until both sides find common ground or the provision is softened till then the bill remains in limbo. Separate negotiations around ethics provisions are also yet to produce a breakthrough.

Time is quickly becoming the market’s biggest concern.

The White House had initially targeted a signing ceremony before July 4, a deadline that has already slipped. Attention now shifts to the release of the merged legislative text combining the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, followed by a crucial House hearing on July 17 titled Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation.

If lawmakers stay on schedule, a Senate floor vote is expected during the week of July 20, leaving only a narrow window before Congress begins its August recess. Miss that deadline, and the legislative calendar is expected to become dominated by the upcoming midterm elections, making meaningful progress this year significantly more difficult.

Opinion remains divided on the bill’s chances.

Coinbase’s Vice President of Legal, Ryan VanGrack, believes the legislation is “on the one-yard line” with strong bipartisan momentum. Others are less convinced. Several policy observers have lowered the probability of passage this year to roughly 40-50%, down from estimates near 70% earlier in the year, citing an increasingly crowded Senate calendar and the shrinking number of legislative days available

.For the broader crypto industry, the stakes extend well beyond one piece of legislation.

• A failure to pass CLARITY would leave much of the industry’s regulatory framework in the hands of the SEC, prolonging uncertainty around tokenized securities, digital asset market structure and the role of developers.

• Several firms, including Robinhood, have already begun building alternative infrastructure while waiting for regulatory clarity, while banks continue lobbying around stablecoin provisions ahead of earnings season.

The next few weeks will likely determine whether the U.S. finally establishes a comprehensive framework for digital assets or enters another election cycle with the industry’s biggest regulatory questions still unanswered.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. The Fed Gets the Inflation Report It Wanted

Just hours before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony, markets received one of the softest inflation prints since the pandemic.

• June CPI slowed to 3.5% YoY from 4.2%, beating expectations of 3.8%, while headline prices fell 0.4% month-over-month: the first monthly decline since 2020.

• More importantly, Core CPI was flat (0.0% MoM) versus expectations of 0.2%, pulling annual core inflation down to 2.6% from 2.9% and bringing the Fed’s 2% target within reach.

The data effectively killed the immediate rate hike narrative after Governor Christopher Waller warned just a day earlier that a hot inflation print could force policymakers to reconsider tightening.

• Instead, Warsh walks into Congress armed with the strongest inflation data of his chairmanship.

• Yet despite improving inflation, the June FOMC minutes painted a very different picture inside the Federal Reserve.

• Officials unanimously voted to keep rates unchanged, but 9 of the 19 members now expect at least one rate hike before year-end—a sharp shift from March when no policymaker projected further tightening.

Markets are no longer debating whether inflation is falling, but whether the Fed is willing to acknowledge it quickly enough.

2. Treasury Markets, Not Equities, Are Setting the Tone

While inflation surprised to the downside, bond markets remain cautious.

• Two-year Treasury yields climbed back near 4.2%, their highest level since February 2025, reflecting lingering concerns that elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks could keep inflation sticky despite improving headline data

  

• Higher short-term yields continue tightening financial conditions, a combination that has historically weighed on liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto.

Equity investors, however, remain focused elsewhere. The S&P 500 enters earnings season after back-to-back weekly gains and its strongest week in nearly a year.

• Analysts are expecting 23-24% earnings growth, one of the fastest paces in years driven almost entirely by continued AI infrastructure spending.

• That optimism seems real as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup kick off earnings season.

  

The disconnect between markets has become increasingly difficult to ignore. Stocks continue pricing a soft landing and resilient corporate earnings, while crypto remains hesitant under tighter liquidity conditions. Both markets are effectively making opposite macro bets.

3. AI Spending Is Creating Winners and Casualties

The AI investment boom continues reshaping corporate America, but not every company is benefiting equally.

• IBM suffered its worst single-day decline since 2000, falling 25% and wiping nearly $60 billion from its market value, after pre-announcing weaker-than-expected quarterly results.

• Revenue missed expectations, while CEO Arvind Krishna revealed customers shifted spending away from software and consulting toward servers, storage and memory hardware in anticipation of higher prices.

The flip side of that trade can be seen in SK Hynix, Nvidia’s primary supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used across its latest AI chips. The company’s U.S.-listed shares now trade at nearly a 50% premium to their Korean counterpart, reflecting investor confidence that AI infrastructure demand remains exceptionally strong. Any easing of export restrictions or resumed shipments into China could provide another meaningful tailwind for the memory giant.

4. Geopolitics

The NATO summit delivered another €70 billion package of military support for Ukraine while pushing European allies’ average defence spending to 2.53% of GDP, up from 2.3% last year.

• President Trump once again pressed allies over defence contributions, revived discussions around Greenland and publicly criticised European hesitation over the Iran campaign.

• Regardless of the political disagreements, the direction of defence spending remains clear, continuing to benefit aerospace and defence manufacturers across Europe and the U.S.

The Middle East also remained firmly in focus after Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to global shipping, while announcing a blockade targeting vessels connected to Iranian ports.

• Rather than pursuing the previously proposed 20% reimbursement fee last week, Trump instead proposed replacing it with broader trade and investment agreements with Gulf states, framing the region’s geopolitical tensions as an opportunity to attract long-term capital into the U.S.

• While markets welcomed the reduced risk of a disruption to global oil flows, crude prices remain elevated enough to keep energy inflation on investors’ radar

  

Trump is framing the Hormuz situation not just as military, but as a massive economic and investment opportunity for America. Turning a crisis into leverage for US energy dominance, deal-making, and long-term gains.

4. ETF Insights

• Institutional demand remained positive for another week, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording roughly $90 million in net inflows on Friday.

  

  

• Although the pace slowed compared to the previous week’s stronger buying, it marked another session of positive flows, pushing total assets under management to approximately $78 billion. The steady rise in AUM suggests institutions are gradually rebuilding exposure as macro conditions improve and regulatory uncertainty begins to ease.

5. The Week Ahead

Markets will be watching whether last week's softer CPI is reinforced by PPI and other economic data, while the Fed's Beige Book offers fresh clues on the strength of the U.S. economy. Alongside this, a packed week of bank and technology earnings, coupled with China's growth data, will shape expectations around global growth, Fed policy and overall risk sentiment heading into the second half of July.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment continued its gradual recovery this week, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rising to 28 at the start of this week and currently at 22 due to escalations in Middle East . While the improvement signals that investors are becoming incrementally more optimistic after weeks of persistent weakness, the market remains firmly in indecisive fear and extreme fear territory, suggesting conviction is still limited and participants continue to favour caution over aggressive risk-taking.

For sentiment to shift decisively, the market will likely need to see consistent Bitcoin ETF inflows, further macro stability and continued strength in Bitcoin’s price action. Until then, improving sentiment is an encouraging sign, but not yet sufficient to confirm the start of a sustained bullish trend..

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Last week, crypto led the risk-on move by a wide margin, with Bitcoin showing the cleaner setup among the two majors. BTC recovered back into the low 60s range currently at $64,000 after forming a local bottom near $57,800 last week, supported by real accumulation rather than just short-term momentum.

Whale wallets reportedly added more than 270K BTC around the 200-week moving average, while options positioning shifted away from downside protection and back toward $60K–$70K calls. Price action, derivatives positioning, and on-chain flows all started pointing in the same direction: selling pressure was fading and larger players were rebuilding exposure.

Ethereum had the stronger headline move, gaining 14.8% versus Bitcoin’s 9.5%, but the rally was more catalyst-driven and the market appears to be front-running the narrative again. Ethereum Institutional launched on July 1, backed by Lubin, BitMine, and SharpLink, positioning itself as the institutional entry point for banks exploring tokenization and stablecoin infrastructure. This followed Ethlabs’ protocol lab launch a week earlier, reinforcing the push toward a more institution-focused Ethereum ecosystem.

The direction is exactly what many investors wanted to see, but it comes while the Foundation is still dealing with a 20% staff reduction, 40% budget cut, and roughly $345M of ETH ETF outflows from the previous week, meaning execution now matters more than announcements.

The bigger structural story was stablecoins. Open USD launched with a 140-company consortium including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase, directly targeting the reserve-float economics that have historically powered stablecoin businesses. The market noticed immediately, with Circle falling 15–17% after the announcement.

Meanwhile, Tiger Securities upgraded Coinbase from Hold to Buy with a $200 price target, arguing Bitcoin’s risk/reward has improved after the recent correction and that the next cycle could be driven by improving liquidity, institutional demand, and stronger risk appetite. Macro conditions remain mixed though as European equities continue showing strength and carry trades are performing well, but semiconductor volatility, UK fiscal concerns, and uncertainty around central bank policy suggest investors still need to be selective rather than assume every risk asset moves higher together.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• SEC Chair Atkins said the agency is taking “historic steps” toward bringing US financial markets on-chain.

• Several Korean companies, including Samsung, raised questions about their inclusion in the recently announced OUSD consortium of 140+ partners, stating there was “no official consultation” and uncertainty around what role they would play, according to Chosun.

• The US government released Trump’s latest financial disclosure, showing crypto holdings including over $100M in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

• BlackRock is integrating Ethena’s USDe into its $25T AUM investment platform.

• Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings declined by 3,588 BTC (~$225.6M), bringing total holdings to 843,775 BTC, according to company data.

• Trump, when asked whether Trump Accounts could eventually include Bitcoin exposure, said “something could happen,” according to Reuters.

• Former Tether CIO Richard Heathcote is reportedly selling a 1.26% stake.

• Coinbase Markets launched pre-IPO perpetual contracts for OpenAI and Anthropic.

2. Bitcoin Is Not Breaking, The Market Is Repricing Liquidity

There is something interesting happening inside the world of Bitcoin treasury companies right now. The smaller players are still aggressively buying because they see weakness as an opportunity.

The largest player just did the one thing it built its entire identity around never doing.

It sold.

And that split tells you more about where the corporate Bitcoin cycle is today than the sale itself.

Strategy Did Not Lose Conviction. Its Capital Structure Grew Up.

Start with Strategy, because this is the part that actually breaks the old pattern.

For years, the corporate Bitcoin playbook was simple:

raise capital, buy Bitcoin, hold forever.

Strategy created that model. It turned Bitcoin from a treasury experiment into a corporate finance strategy. Every new company entering the space has essentially been running some version of the same playbook.

Strategy disclosed that it sold 3,588 BTC worth roughly $216 million between June 29 and July 5. The interesting part is not the size. For a company still holding approximately 843,775 BTC, the sale represents a tiny percentage of its overall position.

The interesting part is the reason.

The Bitcoin was sold to satisfy obligations tied to its preferred stock dividend structure and that changes the whole conversation.

Saylor described it as regular treasury management, and from a corporate finance perspective, he is right. Strategy already had a board-approved framework allowing up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin sales specifically for these types of obligations.

But this is also the natural contradiction that appears when a simple investment thesis becomes a complex financial machine.

The asset did not change.

The structure around the asset did.

The Smaller Treasury Companies Are Still In The Accumulation Phase

While Strategy is moving into balance sheet management mode, the newer Bitcoin treasury companies are still operating from the original playbook.

Buy, Accumulate & Increase Bitcoin per share

American Bitcoin, the Eric Trump-backed mining company, pushed its holdings above 8,000 BTC after adding another 500 coins worth roughly $30 million. Since its Nasdaq debut, the company’s Bitcoin reserves have more than tripled.

What makes this interesting is the context.

• This is not a company sitting in a perfect market environment with unlimited equity demand.

• The company recently completed a 1-for-15 reverse split to maintain compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum price requirements.

In other words, it is managing traditional equity market pressure while still increasing Bitcoin exposure.

Strive is following a similar path

The company increased its holdings to nearly 19,882 BTC, but the bigger signal came from the full quarter. It added more than 6,200 BTC during Q2, reported a 24% Bitcoin yield, and continued building its treasury position while many investors were questioning the sustainability of the model.

Across the broader market, public companies added almost 9,000 BTC to balance sheets during June alone.

There Are Now Two Versions Of The Same Strategy

The difference between Strategy and the newer treasury companies is not conviction. It is lifecycle.

Early-stage Bitcoin treasury companies have a very simple job: accumulate.

Their balance sheets are cleaner, their obligations are smaller, and the entire story investors are buying is growth in Bitcoin exposure.

Strategy is playing a different game now.

Years of accumulation created the largest corporate Bitcoin position in the world, but it also created a much more complicated machine around it: preferred shares, financing structures, dividend commitments, and investor expectations.

• The first stage is about building exposure.

• The second stage is about managing the structure that allowed you to build that exposure.

The Question Is Whether The New Players Are Early Or Just Behind

The smaller treasury companies look disciplined today because they are doing exactly what Strategy did years ago: accumulating when others hesitate.

• If the cycle strengthens, those companies will look like they took advantage of an opportunity.

• But if conditions remain difficult for longer, the question becomes whether they eventually inherit the same challenges Strategy is facing today.

Because the hard part of the Bitcoin treasury strategy was never buying Bitcoin.

That was always the easiest step.

The real test comes years later, when the company has shareholders, obligations, financing costs, and a balance sheet that has to operate through every part of the cycle.

Strategy may not be abandoning the Bitcoin treasury model.

It may simply be the first company far enough ahead to show everyone else what the next phase looks like.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. Cracks Continue To Show Up Where The Rally Was Strongest: Chips

The semiconductor trade has been the engine of this cycle.

• A weaker AI guidance update from Broadcom combined with a broader Wall Street selloff pushed volatility across global semiconductor stocks to the highest level since the 2020 pandemic shock.

• The damage was not isolated. Samsung and SK Hynix were hit. Chinese foundries and AI-linked names in Hong Kong saw double-digit declines. The weakness moved across the entire supply chain because the AI trade has become increasingly connected.

That is the downside of having one dominant market narrative.

• On the way up, everything tied to AI benefits together.

• On the way down, everything gets repriced together.

The concern is not that AI demand disappeared. The concern is that expectations became so aggressive that even strong growth may no longer be enough.

Right now, investors are trying to figure out how much perfection is still embedded in the AI trade.

2. Europe Is Quietly Showing What A Healthier Rally Looks Like

While the AI-heavy parts of the market started showing stress, Europe told a very different story.

The Stoxx 600 recorded its fourth consecutive weekly gain and pushed to fresh highs.

• Unlike the US rally, where a handful of mega-cap technology and AI companies have carried a significant portion of returns, European gains have started broadening across banks, industrials, and defence.

• That is usually a healthier market structure. A rally led by five companies can produce huge upside, but it also creates concentration risk. If those five companies stumble, the entire index feels it.

A rally where more sectors participate has stronger foundations.

This rotation was also helped by the latest US labor data, which reduced fears that the Federal Reserve would need to move even more aggressively.

3. The Jobs Report Made The Fed’s Next Move Less Obvious

The latest US employment data did not give the Federal Reserve a clean answer

• June nonfarm payrolls came in at 57,000, almost half of the 114,000 economists expected.

• Normally, a number like that would strengthen the argument for easier monetary policy.

But the unemployment rate actually moved lower to 4.2%, preventing the report from becoming a clear recession signal.

That leaves the Fed stuck between two different interpretations.

• One side sees slowing job creation and argues that monetary policy is already restrictive enough.

• The other side sees inflation risks and a still-resilient labor market and argues that cutting too early could restart price pressures

  

That split is already showing up internally, with policymakers divided between holding rates steady, tightening further, or eventually moving toward cuts.

This makes the upcoming FOMC minutes important as it would bring clarity on how the Fed is interpreting it.

4. Oil Is Testing Whether Supply Relief Turns Into Oversupply

Energy markets are moving through the opposite problem. The concern is no longer only shortage.

It is whether supply has returned too quickly

• Saudi Arabia has more than doubled crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz compared with the previous two-week period during the conflict, helping push Brent significantly lower from its March highs.

• That is positive for inflation as: Lower energy prices reduce pressure on consumers, companies, and central banks.

• But the market is now debating whether this has moved too far in the other direction.

Morgan Stanley has cut its oil outlook twice in two weeks because of rising oversupply concerns.

At the same time, the geopolitical risk premium has not completely disappeared. A fresh attack on a cargo vessel near Yemen is a reminder that energy markets can move from oversupply concerns back to supply disruption fears very quickly.

4. ETF Insights

• Bitcoin ETFs finally broke their outflow streak. After consistent withdrawals since June 12, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first day of net inflows on July 2, bringing in approximately $203 million and started this week with $265M inflows. The reversal is important because ETF flows have become one of the clearest indicators of institutional demand when they are positive, they create a steady source of buying pressure; when they reverse, that support disappears

  

• The recovery is still early because the damage from previous outflows remains. Total Bitcoin ETF assets are still sitting around $73 billion, showing that a significant amount of capital has already left during the recent weakness. One positive session means selling pressure may be slowing, but it does not yet confirm that large allocators are aggressively returning.

• The next signal is consistency, not a single green day. A one-day inflow shows stabilization; a multi-week streak of inflows would show renewed institutional conviction. The ETF story has moved beyond launch excitement and the market now needs repeat allocations, not just access-driven demand.

5. The Week Ahead

This week will be driven by Fed communication, labor market signals, and inflation data. Markets will be watching whether slowing economic activity gives policymakers room to turn more supportive, or whether persistent inflation risks keep rates higher for longer.

6. Conclusion

arket sentiment has started to recover, but investors are far from confident. The Fear & Greed Index climbed to 27 from 15 last week, moving crypto out of “extreme fear” territory, signaling that the worst panic from the recent selloff has started to fade.

The important distinction is that improving sentiment does not mean risk appetite is fully back. Investors are becoming less defensive, but the market remains firmly in fear territory as participants continue weighing macro uncertainty, liquidity conditions, and whether the recent rebound has enough strength to turn into a broader recovery.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

Bitcoin finally lost the $60,000 falling ~8% last week and briefly trading in the low $58K range, its weakest level since late 2024 and now more than 50% below its all-time high near $126K. Ethereum continued to lag, dropping 8.9% to around $1,565. The decline wasn’t crypto-specific.

Bitcoin traded almost in lockstep with the Nasdaq, which fell 4.5% for its fifth consecutive losing session as investors rotated out of AI mega-caps. Notably, the Russell 2000 still finished 1.4% higher and long-duration Treasuries rallied, suggesting this was a rotation within risk assets rather than a broad flight to safety. Even Micron beat earnings expectations and raised guidance but still sold off, a classic sign that expectations around the AI trade had simply become too stretched.

Naturally, the question everyone is asking is whether this marks the bottom. While sentiment has become extremely bearish, we don’t think we’re there just yet. Crypto is ultimately an outlet for excess liquidity, and today that liquidity flows primarily through Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoin issuance, and institutional balance sheets.

Another important piece of the puzzle is Strategy. The company’s preferred shares (STRC) fell to an all-time low near $72, while MSTR’s premium to its Bitcoin holdings compressed toward 1.0x. Once that premium disappears, Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation flywheel becomes significantly less effective. Pressure on its capital structure encourages traders to short Bitcoin, deepening the company’s roughly $13 billion mark-to-market treasury loss and creating a feedback loop that puts further strain on STRC, even without a single Bitcoin being sold.

To break that cycle, Strategy introduced its new Digital Credit Capital Framework, raising the STRC dividend to 12%, authorizing $1 billion each of preferred and common share buybacks, maintaining a $2.55 billion cash reserve to cover more than 17 months of obligations, and, for the first time, formally allowing up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin sales to fund buybacks or liabilities if needed. The market initially viewed the framework positively, with both MSTR and STRC rallying, while Bitcoin also recovered from its lows.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Japan Pension Fund serving 1,200 firms plans crypto allocation

• Taiko network exploited for ~$1.7M due to chain state verification compromise

• Toss Bank to use Solana for global remittance and settlement POC

• Chainlink partners with 47 South Korean and European banks on international transfers

• WSJ: Bybit hack funds and CoinEx exchange tied to illicit Iranian entities

• Kraken in talks to buy 15% stake in DeFi lender Aave at $385M valuation

• MemeCore (M) crashes 75% amid allegations of supply manipulation and deceptive practices

• Framework Ventures raises $400M for fourth fund to expand beyond crypto

• Securitize goes public on NYSE under ticker SECZ via SPAC merger

• Bank of England allows regulated stablecoins in UK from 2027 with 30% central bank deposit rule

• Coinbase obtains MiCA license from Luxembourg CSSF to establish EU hub

• Hyperliquid added to Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Investor Alert List

• U.S. lawmakers call for probe into Polymarket over allegedly deceptive advertising

2. Strategy Ends the “Never Sell” Era

One of the biggest developments this week came from Strategy, which introduced a new Digital Credit Capital Framework that fundamentally changes how it manages its Bitcoin treasury.

The company formally authorized selling up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to fund cash reserves, preferred stock dividends, and security buybacks if required. While Strategy sold a small amount of BTC earlier this year to fund a dividend, this is the first time Bitcoin sales have become an official part of its long-term capital allocation strategy. Alongside this, the company approved a $2 billion buyback program, strengthened its liquidity policy, and paused Bitcoin purchases for the first time in months, ending the week with 847,363 BTC on its balance sheet

The market reacted positively, with Strategy shares rising nearly 13%, preferred shares gaining around 9%, and Bitcoin also moving higher.

• Investors viewed the framework as reducing balance sheet risk by giving management greater flexibility to support its securities, maintain liquidity, and navigate periods when the company’s valuation trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

• Rather than relying solely on continuous BTC accumulation, Strategy now has multiple tools to actively manage its capital structure.

The announcement marks the end of Strategy’s “never sell” narrative.

The company remains committed to Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, but accumulation is no longer the only strategy.

Going forward, management may sell Bitcoin if it strengthens the balance sheet or creates value for shareholders. The Bitcoin thesis itself remains unchanged, but the investment case for Strategy has evolved i.e. from being a pure leveraged Bitcoin proxy to a company that combines leveraged Bitcoin exposure with active capital management.

Nothing captures this week's debate better than this chart. Bitcoin may be holding steady, but Saylor's approval rating certainly isn't.

How investors value that trade-off will likely determine whether Strategy continues to command a premium over simply owning Bitcoin.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. Fed Turns More Hawkish

The Fed struck a more hawkish tone this week. Nine officials now project at least one rate hike in 2026, while core PCE inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher to 3.6%, reinforcing that inflation remains well above target.

Markets have responded by abandoning expectations of further tightening beyond 2026, with the 12-month OIS spread flipping negative as traders now price a sequence of higher rates followed by cuts, a pattern that has historically preceded economic slowdowns

For crypto, this creates a challenging backdrop. Higher-for-longer interest rates continue to pressure liquidity, while growing expectations of eventual easing suggest investors are increasingly worried about growth rather than inflation.

2. AI Trade Continues Losing Momentum

After leading markets for nearly two years, AI mega-caps are beginning to lose leadership.

• The Magnificent Seven collectively erased roughly $2 trillion in market value during June, declining a median 9.7%, while the rest of the S&P 500 was broadly flat.

• The group has also broken below its 200-day moving average relative to the equal-weight index, signalling that capital is rotating away from the market’s biggest winners.

This doesn’t necessarily mean the AI story is over, but it does suggest investors are becoming more selective. When market leadership narrows or rotates, risk assets including crypto often become more sensitive to macro headlines rather than momentum alone.

3. AI Companies Rush to Raise Capital

One interesting theme this week was the amount of capital AI companies are trying to raise.

• Less than two weeks after its blockbuster IPO, SpaceX returned to the debt market with plans to issue at least $20 billion in bonds to fund its ambitious expansion.

• While SK Hynix announced plans for a $29.4 billion Nasdaq listing to capitalize on strong AI investor demand.

Individually these are company-specific events, but together they suggest something broader. Periods of peak investor optimism are often accompanied by a wave of equity and debt issuance as companies take advantage of elevated valuations.

Whether this reflects confidence in long-term growth or simply managements raising capital while demand remains strong is something markets will be watching closely.

4. AI Becomes Increasingly Geopolitical

This week reinforced that frontier AI is becoming as much about geopolitics as technology.

• OpenAI unveiled GPT-5.6 alongside new models Sol, Terra, and Luna, but access is currently restricted to around 20 government-vetted partners under a new White House review framework for frontier models.

  

• Meanwhile, Anthropic alleged that entities linked to Alibaba’s Qwen lab used 25,000 fake accounts to generate 28.8 million Claude conversations in an attempt to replicate its models through large-scale “distillation.”

  

  Together, the developments highlight two emerging trends: governments are exerting greater oversight over frontier AI, while labs are tightening access as models themselves become strategic assets. Expect stricter API controls, identity verification, and regulatory involvement to become the new normal for cutting-edge AI releases.

5. Apple Feels the AI Chip Squeeze

The AI infrastructure boom is beginning to spill into consumer electronics. Apple raised prices on select iPads and Macs as soaring HBM memory costs squeeze hardware manufacturers, sending the stock down over 6%.

As hyperscalers compete for AI chips, consumers are starting to bear the cost highlighting how the AI race is now impacting inflation, pricing, and demand beyond the data center.

4. ETF Insights

Bitcoin ETFs remained under pressure, with outflows accelerating into the weekend. Between Wednesday and Friday alone, investors pulled roughly $1.61 billion, reducing total ETF assets under management to around $82 billion. The persistent selling suggests institutional appetite remains subdued despite Bitcoin holding above key support levels

.ETF flows remain one of the clearest gauges of institutional sentiment, and sustained outflows have historically weighed on market momentum. A meaningful recovery in inflows will likely be an important signal that conviction is returning and could provide the foundation for a more durable move higher.

5. The Week Ahead

Markets will be heavily focused on the U.S. labor market this week. Wednesday's ADP employment report and Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls will shape expectations for the Fed's next move, while comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB's Sintra Forum could provide fresh guidance on the interest rate outlook. With U.S. markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, volatility may be concentrated during the first four trading days of the week.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment weakened further this week, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 12 and currently at 15, firmly in Extreme Fear territory. Persistent selling pressure and continued ETF outflows have kept investors on the sidelines, with risk appetite remaining subdued despite Bitcoin holding above key support levels.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Bitcoin closed the week down roughly 3.7%, yet the price action itself is telling only half the story. For the third consecutive week, BTC successfully defended its 200-week moving average which is at $62,500, a level that has historically served as a line between cyclical corrections and deeper bear markets. At the same time, a bullish RSI divergence continues to develop, echoing the setup seen near the 2022 cycle bottom. While price remains below both the 20-week moving average (~$71,000) and the 50-week moving average, buyers continue to show up at one of the most important technical levels on the chart.

The bigger challenge came from macro. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% as expected, but the meeting delivered a distinctly hawkish message. The statement was cut from 341 words to just 130, the easing bias disappeared entirely, and the median 2026 dot moved higher from 3.4% to 3.8%. More notably, nine of eighteen FOMC participants now expect at least one rate hike this year, while seventeen of eighteen see inflation risks skewed to the upside. Markets responded quickly, with December hike odds repricing from roughly 24% a month ago to nearly 77% today. For an asset class that has historically struggled after Fed meetings, this remains a significant headwind.

Adding to the uncertainty, the geopolitical backdrop deteriorated late in the week. Markets spent much of the week pricing in optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement, helping support risk assets despite the hawkish Fed. However, the expected signing ceremony in Switzerland never materialised after negotiations broke down, Iran walked away from talks and regional tensions escalated once again. With US equity markets closed for Juneteenth, traditional markets never had to react to the news. Crypto, trading uninterrupted through the weekend, became the first asset class forced to absorb the disappointment. The result is a market caught between strengthening long-term technical support and a macro backdrop that continues to argue for caution.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys another 520 BTC for $35 million, adds to USD reserve despite STRC slide

• Binance may be forced to halt services for EU clients next month: Reuters

• Bitcoin activity nears record highs on microtransaction surge

• Franklin Templeton proposes new ETFs that turn corporate dividends into bitcoin

• Crypto industry looks to stablecoins and DeFi revisions in MiCA 2.0

• The National Business Corporate Pension Fund plans to begin investing in cryptocurrencies in fiscal 2026, Nikkei reported. It intends to allocate roughly 1% of its assets under management to crypto assets through a passive fund managed by a hedge fund.

• Blockchain data startup Allium raises $40M Series B as institutional interest in onchain analytics grows

• Ripple targets EU, wins preliminary MiCA approval from Luxembourg financial regulator

2. STRC and the Confidence Crisis

Few securities have attracted as much attention in crypto markets this year as Strategy’s STRC preferred stock. Designed to trade near its $100 par value while distributing a double-digit dividend, STRC represented one of the first serious attempts to build a credit market on top of Bitcoin

.For most of its existence, the model worked. Investors received an attractive yield, Strategy gained access to cheap capital, and the proceeds funded additional Bitcoin purchases. The result was a self-reinforcing flywheel that appeared capable of scaling indefinitely.

Today, that flywheel is under pressure.

STRC recently traded as low as $86–89, representing an 11-14% discount to par and its weakest level since launch. While headlines have framed the move as a crisis, the more important question is whether the market is simply repricing risk or beginning to lose confidence in the broader Bitcoin-credit model.

A Drawdown, Not Yet a Breakdown

Viewed in isolation, the current decline appears severe. However, historical context paints a more nuanced picture.

• Since launch, STRC has experienced multiple drawdowns of similar magnitude. Previous corrections reached approximately 6%, 9%, and 6.5%, lasting between 14 and 25 days.

• The current decline of roughly 11-14% is larger, but not dramatically outside the range of prior corrections.

The distinction is important. The market is not witnessing the first decline in STRC’s history. What makes this episode different is the backdrop against which it is occurring.

For the first time, investors are questioning the durability of the capital structure that sits above Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury.

The Flywheel Has Started To Slow

The Strategy model is built around a relatively simple mechanism.

• When preferred securities trade at or above par, the company can issue additional shares through its at-the-market program, raise capital, and deploy those proceeds into Bitcoin purchases.

• Rising Bitcoin prices strengthen the balance sheet, support higher valuations, and improve future fundraising conditions.

The problem is that the flywheel works in reverse.

• STRC has not traded above par since mid-April, limiting Strategy’s ability to efficiently raise new capital through the preferred.

• At the same time, the company temporarily paused Bitcoin purchases and sold 32 BTC from its treasury, an immaterial amount relative to its roughly 846,000 BTC holdings, but symbolically significant given its long-standing accumulation narrative.

The sale itself was insignificant. The signal was not.

For years, investors viewed Strategy as a one-way Bitcoin accumulator. The decision to sell even a small amount of BTC challenged that assumption and raised questions about how management may navigate future funding pressures.

The Market Is Repricing Bitcoin Credit

One of the most overlooked developments during the correction has been the surge in trading volume.

• Each successive drawdown has attracted substantially more participation than the previous one

  

• The current correction has generated nearly ten times the volume of the first major drawdown.

This is not necessarily a sign of market abandonment. Rather, it suggests investors are actively repricing what may be an entirely new asset class: Bitcoin-backed credit.

Is The Yield Compensating Investors For The Risk?

The investment case for STRC becomes clearer when viewed relative to traditional fixed-income markets.

At current prices near $86, investors are effectively purchasing $1 of par value for $0.86 while collecting an annual dividend of approximately $11.50 per share.

• That pushes the effective yield toward 13.4%, significantly higher than most traditional fixed-income alternatives.

• The market therefore faces a straightforward question: is that yield sufficient compensation for the risks associated with a leveraged Bitcoin-backed balance sheet?

For bulls, the answer is yes. For bears, the elevated yield is simply the market demanding greater compensation for increasing uncertainty.

Solvency Is Not The Debate

Despite the recent selloff, the market is not pricing an imminent solvency event.

Strategy currently holds approximately 846,000 BTC and management has stated that annual preferred dividend obligations total roughly $1.7 billion. According to company disclosures, the Bitcoin treasury alone could theoretically support these obligations for decades.

Moreover, Strategy retains multiple sources of liquidity, including cash reserves, common equity issuance, preferred issuance, debt markets, and selective Bitcoin sales if required.

The debate is therefore shifting away from whether Strategy can make its next dividend payment. The debate is whether the company can continue funding growth without weakening the economics that made the flywheel attractive in the first place.

Bitcoin’s First Credit Stress Test

The significance of STRC extends far beyond a single preferred security.

• Traditional fixed-income markets represent more than $300 trillion of global capital seeking yield.

• Strategy’s preferred securities represent one of the first large-scale attempts to redirect a portion of that capital toward a Bitcoin-backed credit system.

• Until now, that model has largely operated in favourable conditions. The current correction represents its first genuine stress test.

The market is attempting to answer a much larger question: can Bitcoin serve not only as a store of value, but also as credible collateral for an expanding credit market?

What Comes Next?

The bear case is no longer centred around bankruptcy. Instead, it focuses on capital allocation and the future of the flywheel itself.

Ultimately, the market is not questioning whether Strategy has assets. It is questioning how management will allocate those assets if conditions deteriorate further.

The core tension revolves around three competing priorities: preserving Bitcoin exposure, supporting preferred shareholders, and maintaining access to capital markets.

The path management chooses will determine whether STRC’s recent decline is remembered as a temporary confidence crisis or the first major crack in the Bitcoin treasury-company playbook.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. The AI Trade Encounters ANOTHER Stress Test

The most important market development this week came from an unexpected source.

• Primoris Services, a contractor responsible for building the physical infrastructure behind data centres, shocked investors after sharply reducing its 2026 guidance.

  

• Adjusted EPS expectations were nearly halved, EBITDA guidance was cut by more than $175 million, renewable revenue forecasts were reduced by 30%, and the company’s COO departed immediately

  

Why does this matter?

Because every major AI bullish thesis ultimately relies on the same chain of assumptions: hyperscalers continue spending, data centres continue getting built, semiconductor demand continues accelerating and AI-related earnings continue surprising to the upside.

Primoris sits at the very beginning of that chain.

If project delays, cost overruns and slower construction activity are emerging at the infrastructure layer, investors naturally begin questioning demand assumptions further up the stack. The market reaction was immediate. Korean equities suffered one of their largest declines of the year, with Samsung and SK Hynix each falling roughly 12%, while memory names across the United States came under heavy pressure.

This does not signal the end of the AI cycle. It does, however, represent the first meaningful challenge to the assumption that AI infrastructure spending will continue accelerating indefinitely.

2. Bond Markets Are Starting To Price Fiscal Risk

While equity investors remain focused on growth, bond investors are becoming increasingly focused on debt.

• US Treasury yields moved sharply higher this week, with the 10-year once again approaching 4.5%. Unlike previous episodes driven by inflation concerns, the catalyst this time appears increasingly fiscal

  

• The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” could add roughly $3.4 trillion to federal debt over the next decade.

• Markets are demanding greater compensation to absorb that growing supply of government debt, pushing term premiums higher across the curve.

Higher long-end yields matter because they tighten financial conditions everywhere. They increase borrowing costs, pressure equity valuations, weigh on corporate financing activity and delay any meaningful relief for interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

The bond market is sending a clear message: fiscal expansion is no longer free.

3. China's Slowdown Is Expanding Beyond Property

China’s economic challenges are becoming broader and more difficult to ignore.

Retail sales contracted 0.6% year over year in May, marking the first decline since 2022. Property investment fell 16.2%, while new home prices recorded their thirty-fifth consecutive monthly decline.

For much of the past two years, investors viewed China’s slowdown primarily as a property-sector problem. That narrative is becoming harder to defend as consumer spending, investment activity and broader domestic demand begin weakening alongside real estate.

For commodities, global manufacturing and emerging-market growth expectations, this week’s data represents a meaningful negative signal. The issue is no longer simply property. It is demand.

4. On-Chain Insights

Signs of Accumulation, But Volatility Risks Remain

1. Selling Pressure Is Drying Up Despite Lower Prices

One of the more encouraging signals emerging from on-chain data is the behaviour of Bitcoin’s 90-day Buy/Sell Pressure Delta

Bitcoin's 90-day Buy/Sell Pressure Delta is showing a familiar pattern from previous cycle lows. Despite continued price weakness, selling pressure has eased significantly, suggesting most weak hands have already been flushed out. While not a bottom signal on its own, the divergence points to a market transitioning from capitulation toward accumulation.

2. Whales Are Getting More Active

Whale inflows to Binance remain elevated, rising from roughly $5 billion to nearly $7 billion during June before easing to around $6.2 billion. Large exchange inflows are typically less a sell signal and more a volatility signal, reflecting increased activity from large holders. Until these flows compress meaningfully, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to another round of volatility even as broader selling pressure begins to fade.

5. ETF Insights

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see net redemptions this week, suggesting institutional participation remains subdued despite the recent stabilization in prices. While selling pressure has eased, the absence of consistent ETF buying indicates investors are still taking a cautious approach. A sustained recovery in flows would be an early sign that broader market confidence is returning

6. The Week Ahead

Inflation and growth remain the dominant macro drivers this week. After a notably hawkish Fed meeting, markets will be highly sensitive to Thursday's PCE report, while Micron's earnings could determine whether the recent cracks emerging in the AI trade deepen or prove temporary.

7. Conclusion

Despite a modest improvement in sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index remains deep in Extreme Fear territory at 23. The sharp pessimism seen during the recent correction has begun to fade, but confidence has yet to return, leaving investors hesitant to aggressively position for a recovery.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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The market finally got some relief this week. After months of escalation, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework has significantly reduced immediate geopolitical risk, sending oil prices sharply lower and helping risk assets recover. Bitcoin responded exactly as expected, reclaiming the $65,500 level after successfully holding support around $60,700 earlier in the week. The move unfolded faster than anticipated, delivering nearly 8% upside in less than five days before price stalled near $67,200 and the daily 21-day moving average.

The challenge is that while the headlines have improved, the macro backdrop hasn’t changed nearly as much. Lower oil prices help, but inflation remains elevated, central banks remain cautious, and bond markets continue to price a world where interest rates stay higher for longer. Risk-reward becomes increasingly attractive on deeper pullbacks, particularly in the low-$60,000 region, but it is still difficult to make the case that a durable trend reversal has begun. Positioning has improved, weak hands have largely been flushed out, and selling pressure has eased, but summer volumes remain thin and conviction remains limited.

More importantly, the one thing that still isn’t showing up is capital. ETF flows are stabilizing and outflows have slowed dramatically, but the sustained inflows that typically fuel major bull moves have yet to return. The same can be said for stablecoin growth. Until that changes, rallies should be respected but not chased.

Looking ahead, the market’s focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair, followed by Friday’s U.S.-Iran signing ceremony in Geneva. The rate decision itself is unlikely to surprise anyone. The message, however, could determine whether this relief rally has another leg higher or runs out of momentum just below resistance.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys another 1,587 bitcoin for $100 million as total holdings reach 846,842 BTC

• Binance Reportedly Faces European Union Exit as MiCA License Bid Nears Rejection

• BlackRock Launches New Bitcoin ETF Combining BTC Exposure With Covered Call Income

• BitGo Joins Fortune 500 with $16.2B Revenue, Marking Milestone for Regulated Bitcoin Infrastructure

• Charles Schwab Launches 24/7 Bitcoin Futures Trading on thinkorswim

• SpaceX perpetual futures become Binance’s 2nd largest product with $5.6B daily volume post-Nasdaq debut

2. Macro Backdrop

1. Middle East: The War Ends, But The Risk Premium Doesn't

The biggest macro story of the week was the sudden ceasefire between Iran and Israel, ending 107 days of conflict that disrupted energy markets, closed the Strait of Hormuz and repeatedly threatened to pull the U.S. deeper into the region

• Markets reacted immediately. Oil fell more than 4% on the announcement, Bitcoin rallied and gold softened as traders rapidly unwound geopolitical risk positioning. Message from markets: investors believe the worst-case scenario has been avoided.

• The agreement reportedly includes a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen Iranian funds and a renewed framework for nuclear negotiations over the next 60 days. While full details remain unclear, the deal removes the immediate threat of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

That said, this is not a return to normal.

Nearly 20% of global oil flows pass through Hormuz, and months of disruption have already damaged supply chains, altered tanker routes and tightened inventories across Asia. Even with shipping lanes reopening, energy markets are unlikely to normalize overnight. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates it could take several months for logistical bottlenecks to fully clear

The bigger question now shifts from military conflict to diplomacy.

The ceasefire buys time, but the unresolved nuclear issue remains the central risk. Future negotiations over enrichment limits, sanctions relief and regional security arrangements will determine whether this becomes a lasting settlement or simply another pause before tensions re-emerge.

For markets, the immediate takeaway is clear: While oil has retreated from June’s panic highs near $97, it remains meaningfully above pre-war levels around $70. The market is removing some geopolitical premium, but not all of it. Investors should be careful not to confuse this with a permanent solution.

2. The Fed's First Warsh Test

Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver a rate move. Markets assign almost no chance of a cut, with the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%

• The real story is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. Markets will be watching less for the decision itself and more for how the Fed responds to an economy facing stubborn inflation, higher energy prices and growing geopolitical uncertainty. The updated dot plot and economic projections could prove more important than the rate announcement

  

• The challenge facing Warsh is that monetary policy cannot solve the source of today’s inflation pressures. Higher interest rates cannot reopen shipping lanes, lower oil prices or repair disrupted supply chains. Yet if energy-driven inflation persists, the Fed may have little choice but to maintain a restrictive stance for longer. Markets that spent much of last year expecting cuts are now debating whether the next move could eventually be a hike.

Will Warsh signal a willingness to tighten further if inflation remains elevated?

Any hawkish shift in language, changes to forward guidance or signs of division within the committee could quickly ripple across bonds, equities and crypto markets.

3. Japan Is Becoming Part of the Rate Story

One of the more overlooked developments in global markets is happening in Japan.

As the Bank of Japan continues normalizing policy, Japanese government bond yields have surged, with 30-year JGBs now offering returns that rival or exceed US Treasuries once currency hedging costs are considered. For decades, Japanese institutions were among the world’s largest buyers of foreign debt, particularly US Treasuries. That incentive is beginning to fade.

Why does this matter? Because global bond markets have become accustomed to a steady flow of Japanese capital helping absorb US government borrowing. If more of that money stays at home, Treasury yields may face persistent upward pressure regardless of what the Fed does.

This comes at an awkward moment for policymakers. The recent energy shock has complicated the inflation outlook just as major central banks were approaching the finish line of their tightening cycles. Markets that once expected aggressive easing are now confronting a different reality: rates may remain elevated well into 2027.

The ceasefire in the Middle East removes an immediate source of stress, but it does not erase the broader macro reset already underway. Inflation remains above target, bond markets remain under pressure, and the era of higher-for-longer interest rates looks increasingly difficult to escape.

4. The ECB's Inflation Problem Returns

The ECB raised rates by 25bps to 2.25% this week, marking its first hike since 2023 and effectively reversing part of the easing cycle that began last year. The move reflects a difficult reality: energy-driven inflation is reaccelerating just as Eurozone growth slows.

• The ECB now expects just 0.8% growth in 2026, while officials warn inflation could climb back toward 4% by year-end. That leaves policymakers trapped between weak growth and persistent inflation : a stagflationary scenario that few expected six months ago

  

The bigger takeaway is how quickly the rate narrative has changed. After eight rate cuts between 2024 and 2025, the ECB is back to hiking. Geopolitics, not economics, has become the dominant driver of monetary policy.

3. ETF Insights

• Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first meaningful positive day in weeks, with $85.85M of net inflows on June 12. More importantly, weekly outflows collapsed by over 80% from the prior week, suggesting institutional selling pressure is rapidly slowing. While flows remain negative on a multi-week basis, the pace of deterioration has clearly eased.

• The most encouraging signal wasn’t the dollar amount itself but the breadth. All 13 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded positive flows on June 12, with no product posting outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led the recovery, indicating that institutional buyers are beginning to re-engage after weeks of risk reduction.

• SOL ETF flows remained negative while HYPE ETFs continued attracting capital, albeit at a much slower pace than earlier in the year. The broader takeaway is that investors are becoming increasingly selective. Capital is no longer flowing indiscriminately into crypto ETFs and is instead concentrating around the strongest narratives and highest-conviction assets.

4. The Week Ahead

This week is less about economic data and more about central banks, geopolitics, and the message policymakers choose to send.

More than 20 central banks representing over 40% of global economic output are scheduled to meet, with markets increasingly questioning whether the global easing cycle has already peaked.

Beyond monetary policy, investors will also be watching developments in Geneva as the US and Iran move toward formal peace negotiations, alongside key policy signals emerging from China’s Lujiazui Forum. With oil, inflation, and bond markets all still adjusting to the aftermath of the Middle East conflict, every headline has the potential to move markets.

5. Conclusion

Crypto sentiment remains firmly in Extreme Fear, with the Fear & Greed Index currently at 23. While sentiment has recovered from the recent low of 8, investors remain cautious following Bitcoin’s sharp correction and weeks of sustained weakness.

The encouraging sign is that panic appears to be fading. The less encouraging sign is that conviction has yet to return. Markets have moved from forced selling to cautious waiting, with participants looking for clearer signals from macro conditions, ETF flows, and price action before re-engaging risk.

Historically, periods of extreme fear have often coincided with market bottoms, but sentiment alone is rarely enough to drive a recovery. For now, fear is easing, not disappearing.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

BTC fell below $62,000 last week, down roughly 14% and trading at levels not seen since September 2024. The move wasn’t isolated to crypto. AI, the market’s strongest narrative for nearly two years, cracked as well, dragging the Nasdaq down 4.7% and handing the S&P 500 its first weekly loss since March. Even Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC, immaterial from a supply perspective, felt symbolic. For the first time since 2022, one of Bitcoin’s most committed corporate holders became a seller, however small the transaction may have been.

The weakness comes at an uncomfortable moment for markets. Corporate earnings continue to surprise to the upside, fueled largely by AI infrastructure spending and a resilient economy. Yet the same strength is keeping inflation elevated and yields higher for longer, tightening financial conditions globally. Crypto finds itself particularly exposed to that backdrop. Sentiment has collapsed into extreme fear, ETF flows remain persistently negative, and institutional demand continues to deteriorate as capital rotates elsewhere. The result is a market increasingly searching for buyers while macro conditions offer little immediate relief.

That leaves Bitcoin approaching one of the most important levels on the chart. A convincing reclaim of $65,000 would suggest the recent selloff was largely positioning-driven, opening a path toward the $72,000 resistance zone. Failure to reclaim that level keeps downside pressure intact, with $60,500 acting as the next major support. Should that level break, attention shifts quickly toward $58,500 zone. With inflation data, central bank expectations, and risk appetite all set to collide this week, Bitcoin is approaching a point where the next move is likely to shape sentiment for the remainder of the summer.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Morpho raises $175 million in a round led by a16z Crypto, Paradigm, and Ribbit Capital.

• Strategy announces approval of STRC semi-monthly dividends.

• SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares priced at $135, raising $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion for its IPO.

• The NSA has been using Anthropic’s Mythos for offensive hacking, even as the U.S. fights a legal battle with Anthropic.

• BitMine files for a preferred stock offering with a yield of 9.5%, according to a filing.

• Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (NASDAQ: HYPG) goes live.

• JPMorgan, Citi, and other major banks plan a new tokenized deposit system to compete with crypto.

• Strategy buys 1,550 Bitcoin and tops up its USD reserve by $100 million.

• Citrini promotes Hyperliquid in a recent post, calling it the antidote to FTX’s failure.

• Bybit partners with xStocks and KrakenFX to launch IPO Express; SpaceX IPO subscriptions are now live.

• Zcash to audit the supply of the recently patched Orchard Pool using a new method, with more details expected later today.

• Humanity token falls more than 90% after an alleged foundation member’s private key was compromised.

• FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried formally applies for a Trump pardon.

2. The AI Trade Has a Financing Problem

For the last two years, investors have focused almost entirely on one side of the AI story: demand.

Every quarter brought larger models, bigger data centers, and higher hyperscaler capex. The assumption was simple: AI demand was so strong that infrastructure spending would keep accelerating almost indefinitely.

Last week exposed a more important question. Not whether AI demand exists, but who is funding it.

Broadcom’s earnings initially appeared to challenge the AI infrastructure narrative after the company lost roughly $456 billion in market value across two trading sessions despite reporting AI semiconductor revenue growth of 143% year-over-year.

The issue was not weak demand. Broadcom reiterated AI revenue targets, highlighted more than $30 billion in AI semiconductor bookings, and stated visibility now extends through 2028. Investors were instead questioning whether AI spending can continue to justify increasingly stretched valuations and capital requirements

Then came one of the most remarkable financing structures the technology sector has ever produced.

Apollo and Blackstone assembled a $35 billion private credit vehicle to finance computing infrastructure for Anthropic. Rather than Anthropic directly purchasing chips, a special purpose vehicle acquires Google’s TPUs and leases them back to Anthropic. Broadcom, whose technology sits at the center of the AI infrastructure stack, provides guarantees on roughly $30 billion of debt tranches, while Morgan Stanley structured and distributed the financing

The significance goes beyond Anthropic. This deal reveals how AI infrastructure is evolving from a technology investment cycle into a financing cycle.

• Historically, data-center expansion was funded from operating cash flows and balance sheets.

• Today, frontier AI development requires capital at a scale where dedicated financing structures are emerging around compute itself.

• Chips are increasingly being treated like infrastructure assets, similar to aircraft, power plants, or commercial real estate, capable of supporting long-duration financing against future cash flows.

The structure is also notable because of its circular nature. Investors provide capital to purchase chips. Those chips are manufactured by Broadcom-linked supply chains. Broadcom helps support the financing. The chips are leased to Anthropic, whose demand justifies further infrastructure investment. The entire ecosystem increasingly funds itself through expectations of future AI growth.

That does not mean the cycle is unsustainable. In fact, hyperscaler spending continues to accelerate. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are collectively expected to spend hundreds of billions annually on AI infrastructure, while model developers continue to race toward larger and more capable systems. Broadcom itself remains one of the largest beneficiaries of this trend through custom silicon, networking, optical interconnects, and TPU infrastructure that power next-generation AI clusters.

but the conversation is changing now

The key question is no longer whether AI demand exists. It clearly does. The question is whether the economics generated by AI models can ultimately justify the unprecedented amount of capital being deployed to build them.

The Broadcom selloff and Anthropic financing deal are two sides of the same story.

• One showed how sensitive markets have become to any sign of slowing upside expectations.

• The other showed how aggressively the industry is searching for new sources of capital to keep the infrastructure buildout moving forward.

Together, they suggest that the next phase of the AI boom may be defined less by technological breakthroughs and more by the financial engineering required to sustain them.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. The Economy Refuses to Slow

The biggest surprise of 2026 remains the strength of corporate America. S&P 500 earnings estimates have continued moving higher despite persistent inflation, elevated rates, and geopolitical uncertainty. AI infrastructure spending remains the primary engine, contributing roughly half of overall profit growth as hyperscalers continue deploying capital at an unprecedented pace.

The labor market is telling a similar story. May payrolls increased by 172,000, more than double consensus expectations, while April was revised higher to 179,000. Unemployment remained stable at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that economic activity remains far stronger than policymakers expected at the start of the year

However, beneath the headline strength, cracks are beginning to emerge. The share of workers unemployed for more than 27 weeks has risen to 27.5% of all unemployed Americans, the highest level of this cycle.

Hiring remains concentrated in a handful of sectors, with leisure and hospitality accounting for a significant portion of the recent upside surprise, potentially boosted by World Cup-related demand ahead of the tournament’s U.S. kickoff. The economy remains healthy, but increasingly uneven.

2. The Fed’s Problem Is Inflation, Not Growth

Strong economic data would normally be bullish for risk assets. This cycle, it has become the opposite.

April inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading since 2023, driven largely by higher energy prices following the Iran conflict. Combined with a resilient labor market, the data has effectively eliminated hopes of near-term rate cuts.

Two-year Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels in over a year as markets increasingly price a Federal Reserve that may need to stay restrictive for longer.

Investors are now focused on the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where rates are almost certain to remain unchanged. The real risk is not the decision itself but a potential shift in tone. Markets have begun assigning meaningful probability to at least one additional rate hike before year-end, making the updated dot plot and Chair Warsh’s language arguably more important than the policy announcement.

The next major catalyst arrives on June 10 with the May CPI report. In a market dominated by inflation fears, it may prove to be the most important macro release of the month.

3. Geopolitics Is Tightening Global Financial Conditions

The effects of higher energy prices are no longer confined to the United States.

Emerging market bond yields across Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea have risen sharply since late February as central banks abandon easing plans and prepare for renewed inflation pressures. Commodity-importing economies have been particularly vulnerable, facing tighter financial conditions at precisely the moment they were expected to receive monetary relief.

Equity markets have also struggled to regain confidence following the Iran conflict. The S&P 500 declined nearly 9% after hostilities began on Feb 28, triggering weeks of analyst target cuts and positioning reductions. While sentiment has improved following the ceasefire, upgrades remain selective rather than broad-based. Investors appear willing to buy earnings growth, but unwilling to aggressively expand valuation multiples while geopolitical risks remain elevated.

4. Risk Assets Are Searching for a New Bid

The combination of higher yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and stretched positioning has created a difficult backdrop for speculative assets.

• The recent correction in AI equities exposed how dependent market leadership had become on a narrow group of winners. Broadcom’s post-earnings collapse triggered a broader reassessment of AI-related multiples, while rising yields simultaneously pressured growth assets across the board.

• Crypto has faced a similar dynamic. ETF flows had already been weakening before the recent drawdown, while OTC activity suggested institutional demand was fading beneath the surface. The equity rally masked that deterioration for weeks.

• Once AI stocks cracked and yields moved higher following the payroll report, Bitcoin and other risk assets found themselves without sufficient incremental buyers.

There is a constructive interpretation: Long-term allocators appear to be accumulating selectively after one of the weakest periods for ETF demand this year, viewing current levels as increasingly attractive on a multi-year horizon. But the immediate challenge remains unchanged: strong earnings continue to support the economy, while inflation, yields, and geopolitics continue to restrict liquidity.

That leaves markets trapped between solid fundamentals and increasingly tight financial conditions, with inflation data and central bank communication likely determining which force wins during the second half of June.

4. ETF Insights

• Bitcoin ETFs have yet to record a single day of net inflows in June, extending the outflow streak that began in mid-May. Friday alone saw approximately $330 million leave the products, pushing total Bitcoin ETF assets under management down to roughly $102 billion and highlighting a continued lack of institutional conviction

  

• ETF flows suggest capital remains firmly on the sidelines. A sustainable recovery will likely require not just improving sentiment, but a clear stabilization in institutional demand and ETF inflows before confidence can meaningfully return to the market.

5. The Week Ahead

This week’s macro narrative revolves around a single question: Is inflation reaccelerating?

If CPI and PPI come in hotter than expected, markets may begin pricing a more hawkish Fed path, putting further pressure on equities, crypto, and duration-sensitive assets. If inflation surprises to the downside, risk assets could finally find relief after several weeks dominated by higher yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Alongside inflation data, the SpaceX IPO will serve as an important test of investor risk appetite, potentially offering the clearest signal yet on whether the recent selloff was merely a reset or the start of a broader repricing across growth assets.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply over the past month, with the Fear & Greed Index plunging from 50s in May first week to just 8 this week ( currently at 10), entering extreme fear territory. The speed of the decline underscores how rapidly confidence has evaporated as Bitcoin's correction deepened, with investors shifting from cautious optimism to outright risk aversion. Historically, such readings can coincide with periods of market stabilization, but for now they reflect a market where participants remain highly sensitive to downside volatility and reluctant to deploy fresh capital.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Bitcoin slipped to fresh two-month lows this week, trading below $70,000 for the first time since early April as sellers stayed firmly in control. BTC printed an intraday low near $67,000 after fading from a high around $72,800, leaving it roughly 44% below the October 2025 all-time high near $126.2K. The standout theme was divergence: equities ripped while crypto discounted geopolitics, with the S&P 500 tagging a fresh record above 7,600 even as BTC stayed bearish on US–Iran headlines. Ceasefire hopes had faded into Monday before Trump signaled talks were “continuing at a rapid pace,” but crypto refused to price in the optimism.

Flows did the rest of the damage : spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a record 10-session, ~$2.97 billion outflow streak, the longest run of withdrawals on record, while May alone saw more than $2.3 billion pulled, the weakest month for institutional demand since late 2025. The leverage flush was brutal: over 152,000 traders were liquidated in 24 hours with total liquidations near $744 million, confirming the move was driven as much by forced deleveraging as spot selling, and Mt. Gox-linked wallets moving 10,306 BTC (~$739 million) added a fresh supply scare.

Technically, attention has now shifted to the long-term trend lines as bulls failed to mount a rescue. The $72,500–$73,000 zone has flipped from support to resistance, and the structural read stays bearish until $73,000 is reclaimed on a closing basis; below current price, $67,000 is the next key support with $65,000 in focus if pressure persists. Price also sits well under Strategy’s ~$76,020 average cost basis, leaving that position underwater and removing a buyer that previously absorbed dips. The weakness wasn’t isolated to BTC, Ether drifted toward $2,000 after an early OG whale offloaded roughly $136 million in ETH, though on-chain data showed no broad capitulation among long-term holders, with $1,500 as the next major support if the level breaks.

One bright spot bucking the gloom: Hyperliquid overtook Ethereum as the second-largest chain by 30-day app revenue at $57.9M, and HYPE rallied ~25% after the CFTC formally recognized perpetuals as legitimate price-discovery and risk-management tools, a rare bullish fundamental in an otherwise risk-off tape.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Hyperliquid is beating ethereum in trading volume on some days as big money rotates, says FalconX

• Movement pivots to stablecoin payments as the layer-2 boom loses momentum

• Stellar CEO says Clarity Act would help, but tokenization isn’t dependent on it

• Strive added 2,500 bitcoin last week to reach 19,000 BTC as Strategy sold

• US seized $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets under ‘Operation Economic Fury’, says Bessent

• Jamie Dimon slams Coinbase CEO as ‘full of sh*t’ and warns banks won’t accept crypto bill

• Binance Ventures Into US Stocks Trading For Overseas Customers, Eyes Tokenized Shares In ‘Super App’ Push

• Telegram rebrands TON coin to GRAM, announces Pavel Durov

2. The Most Underpriced Risk In Global Markets

For most of this year, markets have been trading a near-perfect outcome.

Growth slows, but not enough to trigger a recession. Inflation falls, but not enough to damage demand. The Fed cuts, earnings stay strong, and AI spending creates the next leg of economic expansion

It’s an attractive narrative.

The problem is that some of the underlying data is starting to tell a different story.

• The latest GDP revision showed the U.S. economy was weaker than initially reported, while corporate profit growth slowed sharply from nearly $247 billion in Q4 to just $40 billion in Q1.

• That’s not a recession signal. But it is a reminder that economic momentum was fading even before higher energy prices began filtering through the system.

The consumer isn’t sending reassuring signals either.

Disposable income declined in April, yet spending continued rising. Meanwhile, the savings rate has fallen to just 2.6%, one of the lowest levels of this cycle. Consumers are still spending, but increasingly from a position of necessity rather than strength.

That distinction matters.

Markets tend to focus on whether spending is happening. The more important question is how it’s happening.

At the same time, inflation expectations are beginning to move in the wrong direction. Long-term expectations climbed from 3.5% to 3.9%, while one-year expectations reached 4.8%. Those aren’t crisis numbers, but they are high enough to keep the Fed uncomfortable

And that’s where things get interesting.

Investors remain focused on softer monthly inflation prints. The Fed is likely paying more attention to inflation expectations and energy-driven second-order effects. If expectations continue rising while growth continues slowing, policymakers find themselves trapped between supporting the economy and fighting inflation.

Historically, that’s where things start to break.

The market’s biggest assumption today is that AI-driven investment will offset any economic weakness. Goldman estimates AI-related spending could account for roughly 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth this year, while major cloud companies are expected to spend nearly $670 billion on infrastructure in 2026.

That’s an extraordinary bet.

Not because AI won’t work, but because it assumes consumers stay resilient, earnings remain strong, and inflation falls quickly enough for monetary policy to ease.

The market isn’t pricing disaster.

It’s pricing a very specific sequence of positive outcomes.

The real risk isn’t recession. The real risk is a world where growth keeps slowing, inflation stays stuck above target, and the Fed remains sidelined far longer than investors expect. That’s a much less comfortable environment for both equities and crypto than current valuations suggest.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. Manufacturing Is Finally Waking Up

One of the most overlooked developments in the U.S. economy right now is happening in manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0, its highest reading since 2022 and above expectations of 53.3. More importantly, this wasn’t a one-month surprise.

January: 52.6
February: 52.4
March: 52.7
April: 52.7
May: 54.0

• That’s five consecutive months of expansion after spending nearly two years stuck in contraction territory.

• For most of 2023, 2024 and early 2025, higher rates effectively froze the manufacturing cycle. Today, that cycle appears to be turning.

• What’s interesting is that manufacturing recoveries tend to benefit small and mid-sized businesses far more than the mega-cap AI names that have dominated markets over the last two years.

• The market has been trading seven stocks. Manufacturing suggests the rest of the economy may finally be joining the party.

One historical relationship worth watching: crypto bull markets have often become far more aggressive once ISM moves above 56, reflecting stronger growth, improving liquidity, and rising risk appetite across markets. We’re not there yet.

But after two years of contraction, manufacturing is finally moving in the right direction.

2. Geopolitical Developments: Same Headlines, Same Deadlock

This weekend brought more noise than progress

• Just as a potential U.S.-Iran agreement appeared close, negotiations stalled again after the Trump administration toughened its stance, particularly around sanctions relief and nuclear commitments.

• The core issue remains unchanged. The U.S. wants strict verification measures and limits on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, while Iran continues to reject any demands that would significantly restrict its nuclear program.

• Another major sticking point remains the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants greater control over shipping arrangements through the region, while the U.S. continues to insist on unrestricted navigation through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

• Adding to tensions, recent satellite imagery reportedly showed Iran rebuilding and expanding military infrastructure during ceasefire periods, reinforcing concerns that diplomatic pauses are being used to strengthen strategic positions.

• On top of that, political pressure is rising on both sides. Hardliners in Iran are opposing concessions, while hawkish factions in Washington continue pushing for tougher conditions.

For markets, this means geopolitical risk remains elevated and energy markets are likely to stay sensitive to any developments coming out of the region.

3. Global Monetary Shifts Are Accelerating

Three developments this week point to the same underlying theme: the global monetary order is becoming increasingly fragmented.

• In Japan, policymakers are rapidly running out of options. Despite deploying a record $73.6 billion in FX intervention last month, the yen still underperformed every other G10 currency. Even more telling, speculative traders increased their bearish bets despite the intervention

  

• The market understands the problem. Currency interventions can slow moves temporarily, but they cannot overcome a massive interest rate differential. With U.S. rates still far above Japanese rates, the pressure on the yen remains intact. All eyes now turn to the Bank of Japan’s June meeting, where markets see a rate hike as the last credible tool available.

Meanwhile, central banks continue sending a powerful message through their reserve allocations.

• According to the ECB, gold has now surpassed U.S. Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset. Central banks purchased another 850 tonnes of gold over the past year as nations increasingly seek politically neutral reserve assets amid growing geopolitical fragmentation

  

• The world’s medium of exchange is still the dollar. The world’s store of value is increasingly becoming gold.

Europe is facing its own challenges.

Eurozone inflation has climbed back above 3%, its highest level since 2023, driven by both energy prices and persistent services inflation.

Markets are now fully pricing in another ECB rate hike next week. This could hurt families and businesses while the ECB's non-fragmentation tool and balance sheet policy continue to incentivize the public debt bubble and crowding out of the private sector

.Taken together, these developments highlight a world where central banks are once again being forced to prioritize inflation over growth, even as economic momentum remains fragile.

4. Markets Have Never Been This Expensive

• The S&P 500’s Price-to-Sales ratio has climbed to 3.7x, the highest level ever recorded and roughly 60% above the peak reached during the Dot-Com bubble. Globally, the picture looks similar, with the MSCI World Price-to-Sales ratio reaching a record 3.0x, around 50% above its 2000 peak

.

• Investors are willingly paying record multiples for every dollar of sales generated by some of the world’s largest and most established businesses.

• Markets aren’t just pricing growth. They’re pricing years of future success before it arrives.

At the same time, another corner of the world is experiencing its own equity boom.

• South Korea’s stock market has surged to a record $5 trillion valuation, overtaking India as the world’s sixth-largest equity market. Over the last year alone, market capitalization has expanded by roughly 170%, driven largely by the AI and semiconductor trade

• .The concentration is striking. Samsung and SK Hynix now account for more than 40% of the country’s total market value, making South Korea one of the most concentrated major equity markets globally.

• The rally has been fueled by real demand for AI infrastructure and memory chips, but history suggests that when entire markets become dependent on a handful of companies, expectations matter as much as fundamentals.

The question is no longer whether AI is transformative. The question is whether today’s valuations already assume that transformation succeeds flawlessly.

4. ETF Insights And Strategy's First Sale

• Over the last ten days alone, roughly $2 billion has left BTC and ETH ETFs, including a $1.4 billion outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, marking the longest redemption streak since spot ETFs launched

  

• What’s interesting is that Bitcoin isn’t collapsing despite this selling pressure. That suggests long-term holders and institutional buyers are still absorbing supply in the background. But it also highlights a new reality for crypto markets: ETFs have become the marginal buyer. When flows turn positive, crypto rallies. When flows disappear, momentum quickly fades.

• The April rally was driven by institutional money entering ETFs. The current weakness is largely a story of that same money stepping away. Until flows meaningfully reverse, it will be difficult for BTC to sustain a strong breakout regardless of headlines or narratives.

• Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC worth roughly $2.5 million is insignificant relative to its 843,706 BTC treasury. The amount itself doesn’t matter. The symbolism does

  

• For years, Michael Saylor built a narrative around never selling Bitcoin under any circumstance. That narrative helped justify Strategy’s premium valuation and turned the company into a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. The moment even a tiny sale occurs, investors begin asking a different question: if Bitcoin can be sold to service obligations today, could more be sold tomorrow

  

• The company has raised billions through preferred securities carrying sizable dividend commitments. As long as capital markets remain open and the premium stays intact, the flywheel works. But if that premium compresses, the market may begin focusing less on Bitcoin holdings and more on the sustainability of the capital structure built around them.

5. The Week Ahead

This week is all about the labor market: JOLTS, ADP, Challenger layoffs and Friday’s payrolls report will collectively determine whether the U.S. economy is genuinely slowing or simply normalizing after years of unusually strong employment growth.

If labor data remains resilient, markets may need to price higher rates for longer. If cracks begin appearing, rate-cut expectations could quickly return to the forefront.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment deteriorated significantly this week, with the Fear & Greed Index falling to 23 and slipping from the Fear zone into Extreme Fear. Throughout last week, sentiment remained in the Fear category, while conditions were relatively neutral over the past month. The sharp decline highlights a notable shift in investor confidence, pushing the market back into Extreme Fear territory.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

Bitcoin had another volatile week, opening around $77.2K before briefly pushing toward $78.3K early in the week. But risk sentiment deteriorated quickly after that, with BTC selling off sharply between May 22-23 and eventually printing a weekly low near $74.5K, its weakest level in nearly two months. The move lower came as markets dealt with a combination of heavy ETF outflows, rising geopolitical tensions around Iran, and US Treasury yields continuing to climb, with the 30-year yield touching 5.19%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs alone saw roughly $1.26 billion in net outflows across six straight sessions, adding further pressure to an already fragile market setup.

The mood shifted again heading into the weekend. Markets bounced after Trump stated that a peace memorandum with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” helping ease some immediate oil and macro fears. At the same time, on-chain data showed whale wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC climbed to a fresh 2026 high, suggesting larger players were accumulating through the weakness rather than exiting. Sentiment improved slightly from last week too, with the Fear & Greed Index recovering from extreme fear territory, although positioning across the market still remains cautious overall.

Technically, the $74.5K region now becomes one of the most important levels on the chart. The flush managed to hold just below Strategy’s average acquisition cost near $75.7K, while the 50-day moving average also sits around the same zone, creating a fairly strong support cluster. Below that, the next major support region likely sits closer to the low-$70Ks around $71K. Meanwhile, the weekend rebound created a fresh CME gap between roughly $75.8K and $77.6K, which markets may eventually revisit if momentum slows again. On the upside, the unfilled CME gap near the $84K region still remains open from earlier in May, and continues acting as a potential magnet if BTC manages to reclaim the $82K area decisively.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Ondo Finance founder Nathan Allman dies unexpectedly

• At $322 billion, the stablecoin market value exceeds the FX reserves of 95 nations

• Hyperliquid takes a swing at Polymarket with macro outcome bets

• Robinhood Crypto COO Tanya Denisova is leaving company amid revenue slowdown

• XRP Ledger to delete NFT junk and patch key bugs in a new upgrade

• Last-Minute Brakes! SEC Urgently Halts “Tokenized U.S. Stocks” Plan

• Georgia, Tether to Launch Georgian Lari Stablecoin GEL₮

• SEC Greenlights Nasdaq’s Cash-Settled Bitcoin Index Options, CFTC Approval Is the Final Hurdle

• Binance denies new WSJ report alleging $850M in Iran-linked transactions

• Binance CEO Says Tokenization Nears Turning Point as 12–18 Months Look Defining

2. The Warsh Era Begins

Kevin Warsh officially took over as Fed Chair last week, walking straight into one of the messiest macro environments possible. Inflation is heating up again because of the Iran-driven oil spike, while political pressure on the Fed is becoming way more public than usual.

The optics around the appointment were honestly hard to ignore.

Trump heavily praised Warsh during the ceremony, calling him one of the future “great chairmen” while again pushing the idea that rates need to come down fast. At this point the White House isn’t even pretending to hide its preference for a dovish Fed anymore.

To be fair, Warsh has said all the right things publicly so far.

He talked about protecting Fed independence, learning from past mistakes, and running a more “reform-oriented” central bank. Markets wanted to hear that badly, because confidence in Fed independence is suddenly becoming an actual discussion again.

But the problem is simple: the data doesnt really allow easy cuts here.

• FedWatch currently prices almost no chance (1.9%) of a June cut

• Inflation expectations are still running hot

• Brent crude near $100 creates another inflation headache

• Some Fed officials are already hinting rates may need to stay high for longer

This creates a pretty dangerous setup for Warsh early into his tenure.

If he cuts rates too soon, markets will immediately question whether the Fed is acting on data or political pressure. And ironically that could backfire badly.

Long bond yields would probably move even higher because investors start demanding more compensation for holding US debt under a politically influenced Fed. So the exact sectors Trump wants to help, housing, autos, small businesses, could actually end up facing tighter financial conditions.

Thats the funny part of macro sometimes. Trying to force lower rates can actually make borrowing costs rise if markets lose confidence in the institution itself. But holding rates steady isn’t easy either.

If Warsh stays hawkish while oil keeps climbing, he probably becomes the next political punching bag almost instantly. Trump has already publicly joked about suing him if cuts dont happen, which sounds ridiculous until you remember how aggressive the pressure campaign against Powell already became.

And Warsh enters with pretty thin political backing too:

• Senate confirmation was extremely close

• One of the most divisive Fed confirmations in years

• Every policy move now gets viewed politically first, economically second

The base case still is that June ends in a hold.

Probably packaged as “patient and data dependent” rather than outright hawkish. But if Iran tensions escalate further and crude pushes toward $115 again, things can change very fast.

That’s probably the real market risk this summer.

Not whether the Fed cuts or holds once, but whether markets continue believing the Fed is still making decisions independently at all.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. The Iran Deal That Never Quite Arrives

Markets are starting to develop a kind of exhaustion around the Iran headlines.

Every few days there’s another report suggesting progress, another “framework” being discussed, another source saying a deal is close. This week, regional reports suggested negotiations may happen in two phases:

• reopening and stabilizing Strait of Hormuz operations first

• then a 30-60 day process around nuclear terms and broader regional issues

On paper, that sounds constructive. Oil prices fell nearly 7% on Monday as traders started pricing in the possibility that the US and Iran were finally moving closer toward some kind of workable peace framework around Hormuz. But traders have seen this movie too many times already. Every optimistic headline has eventually been followed by a new disagreement, delay, or escalation somewhere else in the region.

And honestly, the bigger signal may not even be coming from the negotiations themselves.

The UAE announced that its alternative oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is already nearing 50% completion. That tells you something important. Even regional players directly involved are still preparing for a future where Hormuz disruptions remain a structural risk

That’s probably the smarter way to read this situation.

Markets may get temporary relief rallies from positive headlines, but nobody in energy markets is fully pricing in long-term stability yet. Oil traders especially seem far more willing to fade optimism than chase it.

Because at this point, the issue isn’t whether a deal gets announced. It’s whether anyone believes it actually holds.

2. Consumers Are Weak, Energy Keeps Running

One of the uglier macro signals this week came from US consumer sentiment.

The University of Michigan’s final May reading fell to 44.8, down sharply from February’s 56.6 and officially below the previous lows seen during the 2022 inflation crisis. A large chunk of respondents pointed toward gasoline prices as the biggest concern, while tariffs and rising living costs remained another major pressure point.

The number itself matters less than what it usually leads to.

Weak consumer confidence tends to eventually show up in:

• softer discretionary spending

• weaker housing activity

• pressure on consumer credit

• slowing demand across the broader economy

At the same time, markets are showing the exact opposite dynamic in energy

• Energy sector up roughly ~32% YTD

• Real estate down around 2.5% this week

• Capital rotating toward commodity-linked cash flows

• Rate-sensitive sectors continue lagging badly

This is basically the higher-for-longer inflation trade happening in real time.

Investors are favoring businesses that benefit from elevated commodity prices while avoiding sectors dependent on cheap financing and strong consumers.

If Iran tensions cool and crude prices normalize, the rotation into energy could reverse pretty aggressively. Right now markets are heavily positioned for sticky inflation and prolonged energy strength, which means any real geopolitical de-escalation becomes a risk to consensus positioning itself.

3. Global Liquidity Is Picking Up Again

Despite all the recession fears, several forward-looking indicators are quietly turning higher again.

US inflation-adjusted fiscal spending is running above 2024-2025 levels, while global money creation is also accelerating at a pace similar to last year.

And unlike previous cycles, liquidity isn’t just coming from central banks anymore.

The biggest drivers right now are:

• large government deficits

• bank and shadow-bank credit creation

• debt-funded AI capex spending

• coordinated fiscal expansion across major economies

Labor data is also stabilizing underneath the surface.

• NY Fed job-finding expectations have stopped deteriorating

• Weekly ADP job creation improved from roughly -50k last year to +42k now

• Labor force growth itself remains extremely low

That last point matters a lot.

When labor supply growth is near zero, even modest hiring demand can quickly tighten the labor market again and restart wage pressure.

Which is why markets remain trapped in this awkward setup where growth isn’t weak enough for aggressive cuts, but inflation also isn’t cooling fast enough for policymakers to relax.

4. ETF Insights

• Crypto ETFs had one of their weakest weeks of 2026, with spot bitcoin ETFs recording roughly $1.26 billion in net outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for over $1 billion of that selling pressure. But interestingly, this didn’t look like panic or capitulation. Trading activity remained extremely elevated throughout the week, suggesting institutions were actively rotating positions and reducing risk exposure rather than fully abandoning crypto markets

• Ether ETFs also remained under pressure, extending their broader losing streak with another ~$216 million in net outflows. Institutional appetite for passive ETH exposure continues looking weak relative to previous quarters, especially as macro uncertainty rises and investors become more selective about where they want crypto exposure. ETH increasingly feels stuck between being viewed as a tech growth trade and a macro-sensitive risk asset

• At the same time though, capital didn’t completely leave crypto. It simply started moving elsewhere. XRP, Solana, and especially HYPE-linked ETPs quietly attracted inflows during the week, with HYPE products reportedly pulling nearly $72 million alone. That divergence is important because it signals institutions are no longer treating crypto as one broad “risk-on” asset class anymore

• The bigger shift happening underneath the surface is that crypto flows are becoming much more nuanced and sector-specific. In previous cycles, institutional money mostly concentrated into BTC and ETH first. Now, capital appears increasingly willing to rotate toward ecosystem growth stories, infrastructure plays, and high-momentum narratives even while reducing exposure to the majors. That’s a pretty meaningful structural change for the market long term.

5. The Week Ahead

Markets will primarily focus on Thursday’s Core PCE inflation data as investors try to understand whether rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions are starting to reignite broader inflation pressures. Alongside that, BOJ commentary, Australian CPI, and German inflation data will help shape expectations around the global higher-for-longer rate narrative.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment improved slightly compared to last week, with the Fear & Greed Index recovering to 34 and moving out of extreme fear territory. At the same time, Bitcoin’s volatility index is sitting near key support levels, historically a signal that a larger directional move could be approaching soon

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Bitcoin started the week attempting another breakout above the $80,000 region before momentum faded sharply into the weekend. BTC lost the key $78,300 support level and is currently trading closer to the $77,000 range, placing markets back into a highly compressed and indecisive structure heading into one of the most important macro weeks of the quarter.

Technically, Bitcoin now sits trapped between two major trend indicators. The 200-day EMA currently sits overhead near $81,700 acting as long-term resistance, while the 50-day EMA around $76,700 continues acting as near-term support. Historically, this type of compression tends to precede large directional moves, especially when combined with elevated leverage and macro uncertainty.

From a positioning perspective, the recent flush already wiped out a significant amount of downside liquidity, with liquidation clusters now rebuilding mostly above current price near the $83,000 region. However, notable downside liquidity still remains concentrated below current levels around $76,000, leaving room for volatility in both directions as traders position aggressively ahead of Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes, and broader macro data later this week.

Ethereum and broader altcoins meanwhile continue showing relative weakness. ETH/BTC extended lower again this week, reinforcing the ongoing trend where Bitcoin continues structurally outperforming the broader altcoin market during periods of uncertainty and tighter liquidity conditions.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Thorchain Loses Nearly $11M as Attackers Poison Vault Churn Process Across 4 Chains

• Bitcoin Insurance for Persian Gulf Cargo: Iran Launches Hormuz Safe, Claims $10B Revenue

• Arc is a new layer-1 blockchain developed by USDC issuer Circle, designed specifically for stablecoin-native finance.

• Saylor’s Strategy scoops $2B Bitcoin, holdings reach 843,738 BTC

• Bitmine Buys 71,672 ETH in One Week as Tom Lee Targets 5% of Ethereum Supply

• Potential A16z-Linked Wallet Stacks $90.87M in HYPE Across 34 Days

• SEC to make ‘innovation exemption’ for tokenized stock trading

• Republican lawmakers call for permanent CBDC ban as House vote approaches

• Capital B Buys 192 BTC After $20M Raise as Treasury Strategy Accelerates

2. The CLARITY Act: Crypto’s Biggest Regulatory Shift Since Bitcoin

The US crypto market may finally be moving from regulation by enforcement to an actual rulebook. This week, the CLARITY Act cleared one of its biggest hurdles after passing the Senate Banking Committee in a bipartisan 15-9 vote, with most anti-crypto amendments voted down.

Next steps: While the bill still needs a full Senate vote and White House approval, the direction is becoming increasingly clear: Washington is preparing to formally define how crypto assets are classified, traded, issued, and regulated in the United States.

A Non-Legalish, Non-Jargonish Primer on the CLARITY Act

For the past few years, the SEC largely operated through lawsuits and interpretations rather than explicit legislation. Projects, exchanges, and token issuers were often forced to operate in regulatory gray zones where asset classifications could change retroactively.

The CLARITY Act attempts to end that uncertainty by creating a formal legal framework around digital assets, while also drawing a hard line between SEC and CFTC oversight.

• At the core of the bill is a classification framework that splits crypto assets into categories such as digital commodities, digital securities, stablecoins, and digital collectibles.

• More importantly, it introduces a “mature blockchain” test where sufficiently decentralized networks can qualify as digital commodities if no single entity controls more than 20% of supply or governance.

In practice, this creates a pathway for tokens to potentially “graduate” from securities-like status into commodity status as decentralization improves over time.

Why This Matters?

This matters because it could fundamentally reshape how altcoins trade in the US market.

• A legally recognized “digital commodity” category opens the door for broader exchange listings, institutional access, and clearer market structure around non-BTC assets

• Tokens previously operating under legal uncertainty may finally receive a framework for compliant issuance and secondary trading

• Meme coins, NFTs, fan tokens, and other speculative assets may fall under “digital collectibles,” creating a separate treatment category rather than being blanket-labeled securities

• Stablecoins receive explicit recognition as a standalone asset class, further reinforcing the broader trend of onchain dollar infrastructure becoming systemically important

The bill also formalizes jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, something the market has been demanding for years.

Under the proposed structure, sufficiently decentralized digital commodities would largely fall under CFTC oversight, while tokenized securities and investment-contract-style offerings remain under the SEC. This removes one of the largest overhangs that has slowed institutional participation across crypto markets.

Fundraising Reform

The CLARITY framework incorporates structured exemptions for token fundraising and ICO activity, including smaller startup exemptions and larger regulated issuance tiers. That potentially revives compliant onshore token formation in the US after years where serious crypto founders increasingly avoided American jurisdictions altogether.

• Our take is that this is structurally bullish for the long-term evolution of crypto markets, particularly altcoins and onchain capital formation.

• Bitcoin itself does not materially benefit from the bill because BTC was already widely treated as a commodity.

• The real impact is on the broader crypto stack: L1s, DeFi protocols, infrastructure tokens, consumer apps, tokenized assets, and emerging onchain business models that previously lacked regulatory clarity.

• The bill effectively creates the legal scaffolding required for a more mature altcoin market cycle in the future.

That said, near-term expectations should remain measured.

The market appears to be treating every stage of the bill’s progression as a catalyst event, but implementation is still months away. Even optimistic timelines suggest Senate floor approval in June/July followed by White House signoff later in the summer.

The bigger takeaway is that the US appears to finally be moving toward recognizing crypto as a permanent financial category rather than a temporary speculative edge case.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. AI Is Still Carrying The Market

Under the hood, this remains one of the narrowest equity rallies in years.

• A handful of semiconductor and AI-linked companies now account for more than half of the S&P 500’s gains in 2026, with Nvidia alone contributing over 100 index points.

• Broadcom’s AI chip revenue more than doubled YoY, AMD’s data center business surged 57%, and hyperscaler capex continues to accelerate.

  

The market is no longer simply bullish on tech. It is aggressively concentrated around one theme: AI infrastructure.

That concentration works beautifully on the way up. It also makes the market structurally fragile if the narrative weakens even slightly.

2. Memory Stocks Just Had Their First Real Shakeout

Over the past seven weeks, memory and storage names went nearly vertical.

Then the unwind started: $MU down 18%, $SNDK down 19%, $INTC down 21%, $WDC down 15%, $STX down 14% and Nvidia itself corrected ~7% into earnings

• On paper this looks scary. In reality, this is fairly normal positioning behavior before a major macro earnings catalyst.

• The market is essentially de-risking ahead of Nvidia earnings because Nvidia is no longer “just another tech stock.” It has effectively become the scoreboard for the entire AI trade.

If Nvidia beats expectations and raises guidance, the broader AI capex narrative likely reaccelerates immediately. If it disappoints, the current pullback could evolve into something materially deeper.

Wednesday is not just an earnings event. It is a referendum on the AI cycle itself.

3. Bond Markets Are Quietly Becoming The Bigger Problem

While equity markets remain obsessed with AI upside, rates markets are telling a far less comfortable story.

• The US 10Y yield pushed toward 4.6% after hotter CPI and PPI prints effectively killed remaining rate-cut hopes. Some desks are now openly discussing the possibility that the next move may not even be a cut.

  

• That matters because the current market leadership is dominated by extremely long-duration, high-multiple tech names. Higher yields mechanically compress those valuations.

In simple terms:

AI enthusiasm is pushing equities up. Sticky inflation and rising yields are pulling valuations down. At some point those two forces collide.

4. Dollar Weakness Signals Cracks In The Macro Narrative

Another subtle but important shift: speculative dollar longs have collapsed sharply this year.

• Positioning reportedly fell from over $30B at peak levels to nearly $6B, while the dollar index has closed lower in five of the last six weeks.

• That suggests global macro confidence in the “US exceptionalism” trade is starting to soften around the edges.

Markets are beginning to price a world where: US growth slows → Fiscal pressures rise → Inflation remains sticky → Fed stays trapped longer than expected

That combination creates a much less forgiving environment for crowded momentum trades.

5. Asia Is Already Feeling The Stress

The pressure is not staying isolated to US equities.

• South Korea’s KOSPI saw one of its sharpest recent declines after Samsung corrected alongside weakness in US memory names. Since Samsung and SK Hynix dominate a massive portion of the Korean index, semiconductor volatility is now bleeding directly into broader regional equity performance.

• At the same time, reports around labor disruptions and strike risks inside Samsung added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile setup.

This is important because semiconductors are no longer “just another sector.” They have become the transmission layer for the entire global AI economy.

6. The Fed Walks Into A Perfect Storm

Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed just as inflation is reaccelerating again.

Days before his arrival:

• CPI hit 3.8%, the highest in 3 years

• Core CPI rose to 2.8%, an 8-month high

• Real wages turned negative for the first time since 2022

Markets are now pricing almost no rate cuts for 2026, while odds of a rate hike by December continue rising

• At the same time, Trump is openly pressuring against higher rates while geopolitical tensions with Iran remain elevated after Trump reportedly paused a planned military strike while warning the US remains prepared for a “full-scale assault” if negotiations fail

  

The Fed now faces an extremely difficult balancing act between inflation control, political pressure, dollar stability, and market fragility.

4. ETF Insights

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $1 billion in net outflows last week, snapping a six-week inflow streak that had become one of crypto’s strongest support pillars. Wednesday alone saw nearly $635 million leave the products, with all 11 US spot BTC ETFs closing the week negative.

  

• The trigger was macro. Hot CPI data pushed rate-cut expectations further into late 2026 while Treasury yields surged, forcing investors out of speculative and duration-heavy assets.

• Goldman Sachs sharply reduced its crypto ETF exposure in Q1 2026, according to its latest 13F filing. Most notably, the bank completely exited all previously disclosed XRP-linked ETF positions. Just a quarter ago, Goldman held nearly $154 million worth of XRP-related ETF exposure across Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares products.

5. The Week Ahead

This week’s focus shifts toward a mix of Fed signals, global growth data, and one of the most important earnings reports of the year.

6. Conclusion

• Sentiment across the market deteriorated sharply , with the Fear & Greed Index dropping back to 25 and firmly re-entering Extreme fear territory as Bitcoin saw another notable correction. After weeks of gradual stabilization (Last week at 49-Neutral).

• The move highlights how fragile confidence still remains beneath the surface, with market participants continuing to react aggressively to downside volatility and macro uncertainty.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

Bitcoin reclaimed the $80,000 level for the first time since January this week, briefly touching $83,000 before pulling back into the close as traders flagged the 100-week EMA as a major resistance zone. Despite the rejection higher, BTC managed to hold above $80,000 into the weekly close, a potentially important shift after what has been a difficult and sentiment-heavy first quarter for digital assets. It is currently battling around the $80,000 level following a brief pullback on Wednesday. The move has also been supported by improving institutional participation, with digital asset investment products recording a sixth consecutive week of net inflows through early May.

Outside crypto, macro conditions remain highly unstable. Iran’s rejection of US peace proposals and the continued Strait of Hormuz blockade have pushed gas prices more than 50% higher since the war began, adding fresh inflationary pressure globally. In response, President Trump announced plans to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax to ease pressure on consumers, though implementation would require Congressional approval and could cost the US government roughly $500 million per week. The proposal highlights how quickly geopolitical shocks are beginning to feed into domestic economic policy as the conflict enters its third month without resolution.

At the same time, geopolitical focus now shifts toward Trump’s China summit later this week. The delegation itself tells the story: Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink, David Solomon and Jane Fraser are all expected to attend discussions around trade, AI, export controls, Taiwan and the Iran conflict.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• On Tuesday the Ethereum Foundation said it is removing so-called blind signing, which is a model that allows users to approve unreadable raw hex strings created only by developers.

• Coinbase’s x402 protocol now supports batched settlement on Base, making large-scale AI and API micropayments significantly cheaper and more scalable through aggregated on-chain settlement.

• On Tuesday, 21Shares brought the THYP to Nasdaq, allowing investors exposure to Hyperliquid’s HYPE token without directly holding the asset. Day one net inflows for the fund reached $1.2 million and trading volume totaled $1.8 million.

• Big Short investor Michael Burry says stock market is “minutes” away from a “bloody” crash.

• Anthropic rolls out new Claude tools aimed at automating legal work for lawyers & law firms.

• Senate officially confirms Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

• Business schools are slashing MBA tuition by as much as 50% due to falling demand.

2. The Next Commodity Might Not Be Oil. It Might Be Compute

One of the most important macro narratives this week came from Larry Fink at the Milken Institute Global Conference, where he said two things that are deeply connected:

“There’s no AI bubble.”

“A new asset class will be buying futures of compute.”

On the surface, it sounds like another AI headline. It is not.

What Fink is really pointing toward is the financialisation of compute itself.

• For decades, compute was treated as backend infrastructure, something companies simply consumed. But once an asset becomes scarce, economically critical and globally demanded, financial markets inevitably build instruments around it.

• Oil got futures. Electricity got derivatives, Housing got securitised and now compute may be entering that category.

And the reason is simple: the world is running out of AI infrastructure far faster than it can build it.

Fink openly stated the US is short on Compute capacity, Power infrastructure, Advanced chips & Memory supply

• That supply shortage is already becoming visible across the stack.

• Data centers are projected to consume nearly 70% of global high-bandwidth memory production by 2026. Major memory manufacturers like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology are reportedly sold out on AI memory capacity deep into 2027.

• AI servers are dramatically more memory-intensive than traditional cloud infrastructure, while demand growth is compounding far ahead of supply expansion.

• A compute futures market would allow enterprises to lock in future GPU capacity, inference throughput and memory access the same way airlines hedge jet fuel prices today.

• This could attract trillions of dollars of institutional capital can enter the space far more aggressively because the risk becomes measurable.

Once an industry becomes deeply intertwined with leverage, derivatives and institutional balance sheets, it also becomes systemically important. Markets start treating it as infrastructure that cannot be allowed to fail.

Over the last year alone:

• BlackRock acquired Global Infrastructure Partners in a deal worth roughly $12.5 billion

• The firm has been linked to a ~$40 billion acquisition tied to AI-focused data center infrastructure

• They committed billions alongside players like Nvidia and Microsoft toward AI infrastructure financing

• Fink also hinted at another hyperscaler partnership announcement arriving shortly

Fink is not betting on which AI model wins.

He is betting that every serious AI company will eventually be forced to compete for the same scarce infrastructure underneath.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. US-China Summit Is Quietly Becoming An AI & Energy Negotiation

The most important signal from Trump’s ongoing Beijing visit is not diplomatic protocol, it is the guest list. Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink and eventually Jensen Huang are all in the room because the next phase of US-China competition is increasingly centred around AI infrastructure, semiconductors, manufacturing and energy security rather than traditional trade alone.

• Jensen Huang reportedly being called personally by Trump after initially missing the delegation may end up being one of the most revealing moments of the summit. Nvidia still views China as a massive long-term AI market despite export controls, while Huang has repeatedly argued that restricting US chip sales does not stop China’s AI ambitions, it simply accelerates domestic alternatives like Huawei Ascend chips. Having Huang alongside Trump during AI and semiconductor negotiations is effectively top-level geopolitical lobbying from corporate America.

• The energy angle may be even more important than markets realise. China still depends heavily on Middle Eastern crude imports, making any Strait of Hormuz disruption a direct economic risk for Beijing. Trump wants Chinese pressure on Iran and stability in shipping routes, while China wants energy security without appearing politically aligned with Washington. AI infrastructure, data centers and semiconductors ultimately all come back to one thing: reliable energy access.

• Tim Cook being part of the delegation is another reminder that despite years of “decoupling” rhetoric, America’s largest companies remain deeply tied to Chinese manufacturing and supply chains. The business community’s message to Washington continues to be clear: a prolonged escalation with China eventually feeds back into US inflation, consumer pricing and corporate margins.

The broader takeaway is that geopolitics, AI and capital markets are now fully interconnected. Semiconductor policy is influencing diplomacy. Energy routes are influencing AI negotiations. And companies like Nvidia, Apple and BlackRock are increasingly operating less like corporations and more like strategic geopolitical assets.

2. Earnings Momentum Still Favors The US

• The earnings divergence between US and European equities continues to widen. The Citigroup Revisions Index shows analysts consistently upgrading US corporate earnings, while Europe has remained in negative revision territory for most of the past year.

  

• The gap is becoming structural, not just cyclical. US markets remain heavily exposed to AI, software and technology-led growth, while Europe continues to struggle with weaker productivity, industrial slowdowns and energy sensitivity.

• Despite valuation concerns around US equities, global capital still continues flowing toward stronger earnings resilience and AI-linked growth exposure. The data keeps reinforcing the same market positioning: overweight US equities.

3. Inflation, AI Euphoria & The Rate Reality

• The latest US CPI report was the biggest macro event of the week. Inflation rose to 3.8% in April, the highest level in nearly three years, with energy prices contributing heavily after oil supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. Core inflation also came in hotter than expected, further pushing back hopes of rate cuts and reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative.

  

• At the same time, semiconductor markets continue trading in a completely different reality. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged roughly 60% in just six weeks as AI infrastructure demand and aggressive positioning continue driving momentum higher.

  

• The scale of the move is now forcing comparisons to past speculative cycles, with some investors including Michael Burry reportedly positioning against chip stocks through large bearish bets. The concern is not around AI demand itself, but whether markets are beginning to price perfection too aggressively.

• The broader tension across markets is becoming clearer: inflation remains sticky enough to keep rates elevated, while AI-driven optimism continues pushing parts of tech into parabolic territory. For now, markets still favour US assets over Europe, but positioning inside the AI trade is becoming increasingly important.

4. South Korea Continues To Lead

• One of the strongest equity stories globally this year continues to be South Korea. The Kospi has surged roughly 76% in 2025, making it one of the best-performing major indices in the world, and momentum still appears intact.

  

• The rally is being driven by a powerful mix of AI infrastructure demand through giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, improving corporate governance reforms and domestic capital rotating away from an increasingly unaffordable property market into equities.

• What makes the move more interesting is valuation. Despite hitting fresh highs, parts of the Korean market still trade at relatively low forward earnings multiples, making it one of the few major markets currently combining strong momentum with comparatively cheap valuations.

4. ETF Insights

• Bitcoin ETF flows started last week constructively, with steady inflows through the first half as BTC continued recovering higher. However, sentiment weakened into Thursday and Friday, with both sessions closing negative alongside the broader market pullback

  

  Despite the late-week softness, net flows for the week still finished positive overall, while total Bitcoin ETF AUM continued climbing toward the ~$107B mark, highlighting that institutional allocation demand remains structurally intact.

• The bigger takeaway is that ETF demand is stabilising rather than accelerating. Institutions are still participating on dips and maintaining exposure, but the market has not yet reached the kind of broad conviction phase where inflows remain consistently strong regardless of short-term volatility.

• For Bitcoin to reclaim stronger momentum from here, markets will likely need to see sustained ETF inflows alongside improving macro sentiment. So far, flows continue supporting the longer-term structure, but not yet strongly enough to fully overpower short-term risk-off conditions

5. On-Chain Forensics

1. Whale Activity Starts Rising Again

• Bitcoin whale flows to Binance have surged above $4B, the highest level since mid-March, signalling a sharp rise in large-holder exchange activity as BTC trades near $81K.

  

• After cooling through April, whale inflows have reversed strongly higher through May, historically a sign of increasing profit-taking or positioning activity near elevated price levels.

• Despite the rise in exchange inflows, Bitcoin continues holding near highs, suggesting spot demand remains relatively strong. However, sustained whale selling pressure could increase short-term volatility if momentum weakens further.

2. Supply Pressure Continues To Ease

• Miner activity has stabilised meaningfully, with Binance Pool flows no longer showing the aggressive exchange-selling structure seen during Bitcoin’s sharp correction earlier this year.

  

• Long-term holders also remain relatively inactive, with the Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDDM) still sitting in the green zone near 0.4, far below levels historically associated with major cycle tops and heavy profit-taking.

  

• The broader structure suggests supply-side pressure has weakened considerably, with current conditions looking closer to accumulation than full distribution, although stronger spot demand is still needed for a sustained recovery.

6. Conclusion

• Market sentiment continues to deteriorate gradually, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipping to 42 in fear territory from 49 just a day earlier. Positioning across the market still reflects caution rather than full risk-on conviction.

• While price action has stabilised compared to the panic seen earlier in the quarter, sentiment recovery remains fragile. Markets are still far from the kind of aggressive optimism and leverage expansion typically associated with stronger momentum phases.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

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Bitcoin pushed back above $80,000 for the first time since January, but the composition of the move matters more than the level. The rally has been driven largely by ETF inflows and leveraged longs, not broad spot demand. That typically points to momentum built on positioning rather than conviction. At the same time, improved mining profitability and sustained ETF demand have eased concerns around miner-led selling pressure, removing a key overhang that capped price action earlier. Bitcoin dominance has also climbed to its highest level since July 2025, reinforcing the shift of capital away from weaker altcoin segments and back into BTC.

Reports of Iran striking a petroleum facility in the United Arab Emirates pushed oil sharply higher and weighed on U.S. equities, a reminder of how quickly macro can override crypto-specific flows.

For Ethereum, structure is weaker. A break below the 200-day moving average near $2,220 would likely confirm further downside, while $2,410 remains the level bulls need to reclaim to stabilize price.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

Note to Readers:

Over the past months, many readers have told us that the Crypto Market Weekly has become a core part of their routine, and we will continue publishing these weekly updates here on Substack as usual.

As we evolve our research offerings, our long-form institutional research will gradually move from Substack to a dedicated research hub on our community platform. As part of this transition, paid Substack subscriptions for long-form reports will be discontinued going forward. Existing subscriptions will be cancelled as we shift to this new model, while the weekly market updates will remain available here unchanged.

We are building a more focused research environment designed for deeper, curated, institutional-grade analysis for investors. More details on the transition to new research hub and access model will be shared soon.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Visa adds Polygon, Base support as stablecoin settlement run rate hits $7B

• Robinhood Posts $1.07B Q1 Revenue as 47% Crypto Drop Shifts Focus to Equities

• Powell Keeps Fed Governor Role Past May 15 in First Such Move Since 1948

• US Debt Nears $39T GDP Mark for First Time Since 1946, Validating Bitcoin

• Raoul Pal Backs Zcash as Bitcoin’s ‘Younger Sibling’ While ZEC Climbs 8%, Outpacing Altcoins

• Gamestop Bids $56B for Ebay, Leveraging $519M Bitcoin Treasury

• Remittance Giant Western Union Ditches Legacy Rails for Its Own Stablecoin

• Trump Linked World Liberty sues Justin Sun for defamation in WLFI dispute

2. Macro Backdrop

1. U.S. Equities: Momentum Without Cushion

• The S&P 500 has posted five consecutive weeks of gains, its longest winning streak since 2024.

  

• The move has been led by large-cap tech, with Apple Inc. anchoring sentiment after a strong earnings print.

What stands out is not just direction, but speed. Markets have moved from late-2025 instability to early-2026 strength without a prolonged consolidation phase. That compresses risk rather than clearing it. Positioning is cleaner, but expectations have reset higher just as macro uncertainty remains unresolved.

2. Hormuz Still Not Fix

The situation around Hormuz remains unresolved despite ongoing signaling from both sides.

• Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom,” aiming to escort neutral ships through the strait

• Iran responded that U.S. involvement would violate the ceasefire framework

  

• Rhetoric remains elevated even as discussions continue

This is not de-escalation. It is controlled tension with intermittent signals of progress.

3. Big Tech Earnings: Strong Revenues, Rising Skepticism

Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet Inc., and Microsoft all reported Q1 2026 earnings on the same day. Every company beat expectations, and growth across cloud divisions remains strong.

• Alphabet: $109.9B revenue, +22% YoY, Cloud +63%

• Microsoft: $82.9B revenue, Azure +40%

• Meta: $56.3B revenue, +33% YoY

• Amazon: $181.5B revenue, AWS +28%

The reaction was not driven by earnings. It was driven by capital allocation.

Markets are adjusting to a new reality:

• Hyperscalers are deploying capital at a scale comparable to national economies to build AI infrastructure. The question is not whether growth exists. It is whether returns will justify the magnitude and timing of this spend.

• That uncertainty showed up immediately. Meta fell 6% and Microsoft dropped 2.5% after hours despite strong prints, while Alphabet rallied.

4. Oil as the Real-Time Macro Signal

The center of gravity right now sits in the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly a fifth of global oil flows through it, and disruptions have turned crude into the clearest expression of geopolitical risk.

The relationship has become mechanical:

• Progress on negotiations pushes oil lower and equities higher

• Any breakdown sends oil higher and risk assets lower

The added disruption came from United Arab Emirates exiting OPEC on May 1. That introduced policy uncertainty into an already tight market, briefly pulling prices in opposite directions before crude stabilized above $105 WTI.

Oil is not reacting to growth. It is reacting to probability. It is the fastest way to read how markets are interpreting geopolitical outcomes in real time.

5. Quiet Strength in Manufacturing

Away from headlines, U.S. data is holding up. Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, the highest since May 2022. This is expansion, not stabilization.

The implication is that demand is returning as a driver. Logistics and trucking markets are tightening not just because of constrained capacity, but because volumes are picking up. This adds a layer of support to the broader macro backdrop that is not fully reflected in sentiment.

Bottom line: The market is split across two opposing assumptions. U.S. equities and Bitcoin are positioning for de-escalation and stability, while oil is reflecting persistent risk. The Strait of Hormuz is the single pressure point that resolves this divergence, in either direction.

3. ETF / ETP Flow Insights

• Most of the week saw persistent outflows, with institutions staying on the sidelines. The shift came late, a single Friday impulse of $629M in net inflows reversed the tone and held total weekly inflows around $153M. Strength existed, but it was concentrated, not sustained

  

• ETH saw $82M in net outflows, breaking its recent inflow streak. Redemptions were led by iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) and Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH). Select inflows into iShares Ethereum Trust B (ETHB) provided some support, but not enough to shift overall sentiment. Positioning remains defensive

  

• XRP products were effectively flat, with negligible outflows. Solana ETPs saw minor redemptions and multiple sessions with no activity. This is not capital rotating down the risk curve, it is capital staying inactive.

• The divergence between a strong single-day BTC inflow and weak weekly participation across ETH and altcoin products points to selective exposure. Capital is entering tactically, not structurally. The broader bid is still missing.

4. The Week Ahead

Focus for the week: This is a reactive week, not a trending one. Each data point feeds into rate expectations incrementally. The jobs report remains the anchor, but positioning will adjust throughout the week as labor and services data either confirm or challenge the current macro narrative.

5. Conclusion

Sentiment is stabilizing, but not secure. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 40, still in fear territory, and it was at Neutral level yesterday. These kind of rapid sentiment swings is the signal. Surface conditions have still not improved, and underlying conviction remains weak. The market is reacting quickly to incoming information rather than building sustained confidence, leaving sentiment fragile and prone to reversal.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

Markets begin the new week at an important inflection point, with sentiment improving but price action yet to fully confirm the shift. Bitcoin is trading near $77,000 after several failed attempts to reclaim the $79,500 zone, leaving price pinned just below a major resistance band. Early-week gains were faded quickly, with Monday downside extending close to 3%, reinforcing that sellers remain active near overhead levels.

Technically, two key moving averages remain in play as macro uncertainty around the Iran conflict continues to influence broader risk appetite. Bulls now need a clean move through the low $80,000s to re-establish stronger upside momentum. Until then, the base case remains a period of consolidation or a pullback toward $75,000, with any durable bullish structure requiring a decisive close above $80,000.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

Note to Readers:

Over the past months, many readers have told us that the Crypto Market Weekly has become a core part of their routine, and we will continue publishing these weekly updates here on Substack as usual.

As we evolve our research offerings, our long-form institutional research will gradually move from Substack to a dedicated research hub on our community platform. As part of this transition, paid Substack subscriptions for long-form reports will be discontinued going forward. Existing subscriptions will be cancelled as we shift to this new model, while the weekly market updates will remain available here unchanged.

We are building a more focused research environment designed for deeper, curated, institutional-grade analysis for investors. More details on the transition to new research hub and access model will be shared soon.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Tokenized Assets Near $30 Billion as Institutions Expand On-Chain Capital Markets Activity

• New York Sues Coinbase and Gemini Over ‘Prediction Markets’

• UAE Announces Shift Toward AI Government Model in the Next Two Years

• Believe Founder Arrested on Strangulation Charges as Token Collapses 99%

• Five Major DeFi Protocols Ask Arbitrum DAO to Free 30,765 ETH Locked After rsETH Bridge Bug

• MiCA drove euro stablecoin volume up 1,200% in 15 months, reshaping Europe’s payments market.

• Tether Freezes $344 Million in USDT With OFAC and US Law Enforcement

• Canada advances bill to ban crypto political donations

• Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys 3,273 bitcoin as it inches closer to its 1 million target

2. CLARITY Act Faces Senate Delay Despite Strong Momentum

The CLARITY Act passed the House on July 17, 2025, by a decisive 294–134 bipartisan vote, marking one of the most important US crypto policy developments to date. The bill would establish a national framework for digital assets by splitting oversight between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while creating clearer rules for tokens, exchanges, issuers, and investors.

Nearly nine months later, the bill remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, with no markup vote scheduled. Pressure is now building from across the industry. More than 120 crypto organizations, including Coinbase, Ripple Labs, Kraken, Circle Internet Group, Uniswap Labs, Andreessen Horowitz, and Galaxy Digital, have urged lawmakers to move quickly or risk losing capital, jobs, and innovation overseas.

• The biggest sticking point has been stablecoin yield rules, with banks opposing products that could attract deposits away from the traditional banking system.

• A March compromise reportedly limited passive yield while allowing activity-based rewards, helping remove one of the key obstacles.

• Support has since expanded, with backing from the United States Department of the Treasury, White House-aligned voices, and regulators prepared to implement new rules once passed.

• The real challenge now is timing. As the election cycle approaches and the Senate calendar tightens, the window for meaningful legislation is narrowing.

• Prediction markets have reduced the odds of passage, though some industry leaders still expect progress in the coming months.

Bottom line: most policy battles appear largely settled. The missing piece is no longer support, but Senate action.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. Central Banks Enter a High-Stakes Week

This week brings one of the most compressed global policy calendars in recent memory. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meet on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on Thursday. With markets sensitive to every shift in guidance, tone may matter more than actual rate decisions.

• Fed rate cut odds remain near zero, making a hold the base case.

  

• Markets will watch Jerome Powell for any hawkish shift, though a “wait and see” message remains most likely.

• ECB policymakers remain cautious, with Christine Lagarde offering limited forward guidance amid geopolitical uncertainty.

• In Japan, investors continue watching for the next hike, though a weaker yen still supports global liquidity and carry trades.

• Any surprise from one major central bank could move currencies, bonds, and equities simultaneously.

2. Tech Leadership Faces Its Biggest Test

After peaking near 4.80 last October, the Mag 7-to-S&P 500 ratio spent months falling as money rotated into defensives and value. That trend has reversed sharply since the early-April market bottom.

• Mega-cap tech has rallied nearly 20% since early April.

• The group has driven more than 40% of the S&P 500’s rebound.

• Five of the seven largest names report earnings this week, making it a key test for the rally.

• Earnings growth expectations are above 20% YoY.

• Any misses, weaker margins, or cautious AI spending commentary could quickly pressure sentiment.

3. Iran Conflict

The conflict that began on February 28 has become the dominant external force shaping global markets. The closure risk around the Strait of Hormuz has kept energy markets elevated and complicated the inflation outlook.

• ECB rate cuts were delayed as inflation forecasts moved higher and growth expectations were reduced.

• Similar caution has emerged across the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan.

• Central banks that were discussing cuts only weeks ago are now expected to stay on hold.

• Even if ceasefire headlines improve, infrastructure damage and supply disruptions could keep energy pressure elevated longer than markets expect.

4. Underlying Economic Signals Remain Supportive

While macro risks dominate headlines, several domestic indicators continue to improve beneath the surface.

• Russell 2000 took five years, rather than the usual four, to complete a multi-year breakout and now trades near all-time highs.

• Institute for Supply Management manufacturing data has printed above 52 for three consecutive months, near a 44-month high.

• Historically, ISM above 56 has coincided with strong risk-asset momentum.

• Core inflation is near a 60-month low, easing pressure on policymakers.

• US M2 Money Supply is near all-time highs, supportive for liquidity-sensitive assets.

• Markets are also watching for a possible new Fed Chair selection in coming weeks.

5. Bond Market Calm

One of the more unusual features of the current macro backdrop is how stable the bond market has remained despite rising geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

• The US 10-Year Treasury Yield is on track for its tightest monthly trading range since December 2020.

• Markets appear to be balancing two opposing forces at once: slower economic growth pulling yields lower, while sticky energy-led inflation keeps aggressive rate cuts unlikely.

• In effect, bonds are pricing a softening economy without fully pricing monetary easing.

• That has created an unusually narrow range and a sense of calm across rates markets.

• Such compression rarely lasts indefinitely, especially with central bank meetings, earnings, and geopolitical risks all concentrated this week.

Bottom line: This week is a combined stress test for two core market narratives: AI-led earnings growth and the path of global rates. Markets are currently priced for favorable outcomes on both.

4. ETF / ETP Flow Insights

• Last week saw a clear improvement in crypto ETF demand, with institutional flows returning after a softer start and strengthening into the close.

• Bitcoin ETFs led with $824 million in net inflows, while BlackRock’s IBIT alone captured $733 million, remaining the dominant vehicle for exposure.

  

• Ether ETFs added $155 million, extending their recent recovery and signaling improving sentiment beyond Bitcoin

  

• Altcoin demand was constructive as well, with XRP ETFs attracting $16 million and Solana ETFs adding $9.4 million in net inflows.

• Flows remain positive across major assets, but capital is still highly concentrated in the largest, most liquid products rather than broadly distributed across the market.

5. The Week Ahead

Focus for the week: This is a high-impact macro and earnings week. Markets have already priced in improving conditions, so the burden now shifts to Powell, inflation data, GDP, and Big Tech results to validate the rally.

6. Conclusion

Sentiment has continued to strengthen, with the Fear & Greed Index rising to 47 this morning, firmly back in neutral territory after weeks of persistent fear readings. The move follows last week’s initial break higher, and the fact that sentiment has held those gains and extended further suggests it was more than a temporary bounce. For now, it points to a more durable shift in market psychology as fear gradually gives way to stabilization.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

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Markets begin the last full week of April with optimism improving, but not yet fully validated. Bitcoin has pulled back toward $74,400 after completing last week’s bullish leg, now testing an important near-term zone as price searches for fresh direction. Broader structure remains constructive, with Bitcoin still positive on weekly time frames, though it continues to trade below the 21-week EMA. Key resistance levels remain overhead, with the major breakout zone near $81,000 still the level to reclaim.

The macro backdrop has become more complicated. Renewed US-Iran conflict concerns have brought energy markets back into focus, raising the risk of higher oil prices and a more persistent inflation narrative.

At the same time, Ether is showing relative strength, with the ETH/BTC ratio climbing to a 10-week high. Ethereum network activity has also improved sharply, with daily active addresses rising from 384,763 on April 5 to 730,278, signaling stronger user engagement and adding support to ETH’s recent momentum.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

Note to Readers:

Over the past months, many readers have told us that the Crypto Market Weekly has become a core part of their routine, and we will continue publishing these weekly updates here on Substack as usual.

As we evolve our research offerings, our long-form institutional research will gradually move from Substack to a dedicated research hub on our community platform. As part of this transition, paid Substack subscriptions for long-form reports will be discontinued going forward. Existing subscriptions will be cancelled as we shift to this new model, while the weekly market updates will remain available here unchanged.

We are building a more focused research environment designed for deeper, curated, institutional-grade analysis for investors. More details on the transition to new research hub and access model will be shared soon.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Kelp restaking platform exploited, $293M drained in attack

• Aave’s TVL tanks $8B a day after $293M Kelp DAO hack

• Polymarket in talks to raise $400M at a $15B valuation

• Strategy buys 34,164 Bitcoin for $2.5B, holdings top 800,000 BTC

• ZachXBT asks MemeCore to explain valuation and token supply

• Japan to test government bonds as digital collateral on Canton

• Bitmine buys 101,627 ETH in largest purchase since December 2025

• Tether takes 8.2% stake in Bitcoin mining finance platform Antalpha

• Crypto in sustained winter as CEX volumes drop 39% in Q1 as per CoinGecko

2. Apple’s Next Era Begins: John Ternus Takes Over

Apple Inc. has announced its biggest leadership change since the Steve Jobs era. John Ternus will become CEO on September 1, 2026, while Tim Cook will move into the role of Executive Chairman. The decision was unanimously approved by the board.

• Cook joined Apple in 1998 and became CEO in 2011 following the passing of Steve Jobs.

• During Cook’s tenure, Apple grew from a company worth roughly $350 billion to nearly $4 trillion, making it one of the most successful corporate runs in modern history.

Now leadership moves to Ternus.

• At 50, he is a longtime Apple executive and currently serves as Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering. Inside the company, he has built a strong reputation as a serious product leader with deep technical credibility.

• Ternus has played a major role across the iPhone, iPad, Mac and broader hardware engineering efforts.

• More recently, his responsibilities expanded into areas such as design, robotics and future product categories.

Why this matters for investors:

Cook’s Apple became known for operational excellence with world-class supply chain execution, strong margins, rapid growth in services revenue, deep global relationships and aggressive shareholder returns through buybacks.

Ternus signals a different emphasis.

• He is widely seen as an engineering-led executive, someone focused on products and building rather than purely operations and finance, thus a new product line is anticipated.

• This could mean Apple is entering a new chapter. Less about refining an already dominant business, and more about creating the next wave of growth.

• The last major product-led era at Apple delivered: iPod, iPhone & iPad.

Cook is still expected to play an important role.

As Executive Chairman, he can remain focused on:

• China and supply chain diplomacy

• tariffs and trade issues

• regulatory pressure

• AI policy and government engagement

• long-term strategic oversight

That setup gives Apple continuity while allowing a new CEO to focus on execution and innovation.

What investors will watch next:

1. Ternus’s first major keynote

2. Apple’s AI hardware roadmap

3. Any new device categories

4. Product launch pace

5. Whether revenue growth accelerates beyond the iPhone cycle

Thus September 1 is more than a management transition. It may mark the shift from Apple as an operating powerhouse to Apple chasing its next breakthrough.

If Ternus can deliver a new product cycle, it could shape the next decade for Apple Inc..

3. Macro Backdrop

1. Energy Outperforms, Fed Put Removed

• The US 2-Year Treasury Yield has quietly moved back in line with the Federal Reserve funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, signaling the bond market has stopped fighting the Fed.

  

• Short-term rates now reflect expectations that the Fed is likely to stay on hold, with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 28–29 widely expected to bring no rate change.

• With that view largely priced in, the 2-year yield appears to have found a near-term floor.

• Any credible peace deal, softer labor market data, weaker growth outlook, or lower inflation prints could reprice the 2-year sharply lower and quickly revive rate-cut expectations.

• A fast drop in yields would typically support equities, lower borrowing costs, weaken the US dollar, and improve overall risk sentiment.

2. US Importers Can Now Claim Billions in Tariff Refunds

• Big development for US importers: starting today, businesses can begin filing for refunds on certain 2025 tariffs through a new U.S. Customs and Border Protection claims portal.

• These tariffs were originally imposed under Donald Trump using IEEPA authority. In February 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled those actions exceeded presidential powers, making the tariffs unconstitutional.

  

• Roughly $166 billion was collected across 53 million shipments, with an estimated $127 billion plus interest potentially eligible for refund.

• Businesses must submit detailed shipment and payment records, and claims are expected to be processed within 60–90 days.

• Refunds would go directly to importers rather than consumers.

• Near-term implication: this could materially improve importer cash flow and margins over coming quarters.

• Consumer impact is less certain, as any pass-through into lower retail prices depends on competition, pricing decisions, and ongoing legal challenges.

3. Markets Are Pricing Peace, But Peace Hasn’t Arrived

• The S&P 500 has hit a fresh record high and fully erased its war-shock losses, but the rally is far narrower than it appears. Nearly 60% of gains since the March bottom have come from just seven mega-cap tech names, led by NVIDIA Corporation, Alphabet Inc., and Broadcom Inc., while most other stocks have barely moved.

  

• Energy Sector is the clearest loser, down nearly 10%, as traders bet oil prices fall with easing geopolitical risk. That makes this move look less like a broad bull market and more like a peace trade concentrated in large-cap growth names. With leadership this narrow, the index has limited cushion if sentiment reverses.

• The US Dollar Index is sending the same message. It surged earlier in the conflict on safe-haven demand and expectations the Federal Reserve would stay hawkish during an energy shock, then weakened through March and April as ceasefire hopes increased. A softer dollar is typically a tailwind for equities and global risk assets.

  

  Across assets, markets are pricing in peace before peace has actually arrived. Record equities, a weaker dollar, and stable yields all reflect expectations that the Hormuz crisis resolves quietly. But with reopening odds still below 20%, the Strait of Hormuz remains the key variable. A real resolution offers meaningful upside, while failed talks could trigger a sharp snapback.

4. ETF / ETP Flow Insights

• ETF flows improved meaningfully through the week after a weak Monday start, turning positive for the rest of the sessions.

  

• The key highlight was Friday, with $647M in inflows, the strongest single-day figure of the month.

• That late-week strength pushed total ETF assets under management back to around $100B, recovering part of the recent drawdown caused by prior outflows.

• Main takeaway: sentiment is stabilizing and institutional demand is returning, with signs of real conviction on stronger inflow days.

• Whether this momentum sustains next week or remains dependent on broader macro conditions.

5. The Week Ahead

Focus for the week: Markets ended last week with improving sentiment. This week will determine whether that optimism is supported by stronger data and earnings, or if the rally remains fragile and macro-dependent.

6. Conclusion

Market sentiment continues to improve at a measured pace. The Fear & Greed Index has risen to 29, which still places it in fear territory, but represents a clear rebound from the extreme fear levels seen through much of the year. While confidence has not yet returned enough to move sentiment into neutral territory, the recent trend suggests panic conditions are easing and investor nerves are slowly stabilizing.

In a market driven by liquidity swings and institutional flow, our Crush Circle platform by CryptoCrush gives investors direct access to expert research, real-time guidance, and the frameworks needed to stay ahead of the next big move.

Visit here for more information 👇

Visit Crush Circle

Markets enter the week balancing a fragile relief rally against unresolved macro pressure. Bitcoin has reclaimed ~$74,500, briefly pushing toward the $75,000 psychological resistance, and is now trading back within its broader ~$70K–$75K range. The move comes despite a sharp intraday shock over the weekend, where BTC dropped more than $2,000 in under an hour following headlines that U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks had collapsed. Price action suggests positioning remains light rather than conviction-driven.

On the macro side, the U.S. blockade around the Strait of Hormuz officially began Monday at 10 a.m. EDT. Crucially, restrictions are limited to Iran-linked shipping, with non-Iran-bound traffic still allowed to pass. That distinction is driving the current market response. Oil remains elevated but not disorderly, and equities are attempting a relief bounce rather than pricing a full-scale supply shock.

The result is a split regime. Bitcoin and equities are stabilizing on partial positives, while underlying pressures persist: energy-driven inflation, constrained policy flexibility, and unresolved geopolitical risk. Markets are holding levels, not breaking out.

In this issue, I’ll break down what actually drove the movement, how macro catalysts are compressing into a high-impact window, what on-chain flows are revealing about holder behaviour, and where structural momentum may emerge next.

Let’s get into it.

Note to Readers:
Over the past months, many readers have told us that the Crypto Market Weekly has become a core part of their routine, and we will continue publishing these weekly updates here on Substack as usual.

As we evolve our research offerings, our long-form institutional research will gradually move from Substack to a dedicated research hub on our community platform. As part of this transition, paid Substack subscriptions for long-form reports will be discontinued going forward. Existing subscriptions will be cancelled as we shift to this new model, while the weekly market updates will remain available here unchanged.

We are building a more focused research environment designed for deeper, curated, institutional-grade analysis for investors. More details on the transition to new research hub and access model will be shared soon.

1. Sector Performance & Key Developments

• Bitget Unlocks Pre-IPO Access for VIPs

• Strategy buys 13,927 Bitcoin for $1B, holdings near 800,000 BTC

• Bitmine ramps up Ether buys, pushes holdings toward 5% of total supply

• Jito, KODA team up on institutional staking in South Korea

• Goldman Sachs Strategist Says AI Disruption Fears Will Linger for Years in Software Stocks

• RAVE Token Rockets Past $9, Weekly Gains Top 3,400%

• Starkware Cuts Jobs as Starknet Revenue Collapses

• Robinhood Restricts High-Risk Prediction Contracts Amid Israel Insider Trading Charges, Iran Bet Scrutiny

• Kraken Targeted by Extortion Group Threatening to Leak Internal Support Videos

• South Korea Fines Coinone $3.5M, Suspends New User Services for 3 Months Over AML Violations

2. Strait of Hormuz Blockade, Sharp Supply Shock Risk but Markets Treat as Negotiation

The U.S. military has begun enforcing a blockade on vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, effective 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday. While non-Iran-bound traffic is still allowed to transit the strait, operational control has effectively expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, per U.S. military communication cited by Bloomberg.

Shipping activity has already collapsed, with daily transits dropping to single digits from ~135 in peacetime conditions. A full enforcement scenario could push this even lower, implying a near-complete chokehold on one of the world’s most critical energy arteries.

Iran has publicly dismissed the move. National security commission spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei called the blockade a “bluff,” while warning that Iran retains escalation levers it has not yet deployed, according to The Washington Times. This keeps asymmetric retaliation risk elevated.

The economic impact is already skewed toward Asia, which depends on more than 80% of energy flows transiting the strait. The disruption is beginning to cascade downstream into industrial sectors, with early signs of stress across fertilizers, packaging, and broader manufacturing supply chains.

Timing remains critical. The current ceasefire window expires on April 22, compressing the timeline for any diplomatic resolution and increasing the probability of further escalation if no agreement is reached.

Market reaction, however, remains notably restrained. Oil has moved higher by ~5%, reflecting immediate supply concerns, but the lack of a meaningful drawdown in equities suggests markets are still pricing this as a tactical pressure move rather than a sustained geopolitical shock

Positioning data aligns with this interpretation. Prediction markets are skewed toward a prolonged standoff, with low probability assigned to a near-term rollback of the blockade under Donald Trump, reinforcing the base case of continued tension without immediate resolution.

Risk is also now expanding beyond a single chokepoint. With talks failing, Iran is signaling escalation via Houthi forces toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Major carriers such as Maersk and CMA CGM have reverted to Red Sea avoidance, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Despite partial offsets via alternative pipelines (Saudi East-West, Iran-China routes), global energy and shipping flows remain materially impaired.

3. Macro Backdrop

1. Energy Outperforms, Fed Put Removed

March was a clean divergence. The S&P 500 declined 5.09%, while the energy sector surged 10.31%, the only segment closing the month in positive territory.

• The driver is straightforward: escalating Middle East tensions have constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted broader energy infrastructure.

• In a supply-shocked environment, commodities and producers have acted as the primary hedge, and March reinforced that dynamic.

  

The second-order effect is monetary. Oil-led inflation has effectively sidelined the Federal Reserve. Rate futures that entered the year pricing two to three cuts have sharply repriced, with markets now assigning ~95% probability to no change at the April meeting and largely removing expected cuts through 2026. The Fed has shifted from a supportive tailwind to neutral inertia, materially tightening conditions across risk assets.

2. Sharp Reversal Beneath the Surface

The S&P 500 recorded its strongest week since November, while the Nasdaq Composite extended gains to 8 consecutive sessions, its longest streak since 2023. Small caps and Nasdaq have now retraced nearly all war-driven losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to lag.

• Under the surface, leadership has been highly concentrated. Semiconductors outperformed software every single day of the week, marking the worst relative performance stretch for software on record and signaling a decisive shift toward hard-tech and cyclical leverage over duration-sensitive growth.

  

• In commodities, WTI crude oil saw its largest weekly decline since 2020, settling near ~$95, though still materially elevated versus pre-war levels.

• FX and hard assets moved in tandem. The US Dollar declined every day of the week, its steepest weekly drop since April 2025’s Liberation Day move, while Gold extended gains for a third straight week, now up over 18% from March 23 lows.

3. 10Y Holding the System in Place

• US 10-year Treasury yield anchored around ~4.25–4.3%, acting as the market’s equilibrium level

  

• Recent volatility (spike on inflation fears, drop on ceasefire hopes) has mean-reverted back to this range

• At these levels, cost of capital remains structurally high with sustained pressure on valuations and risk assets

• Federal Reserve remains effectively sidelined, with limited room to ease

• Clear macro loop in place: energy-driven geopolitics → inflation → Fed inaction → pressure on growth assets (especially tech)

• Regime unlikely to shift without either Middle East de-escalation or a meaningful decline in inflation

• Earnings season becomes the next key datapoint to validate whether fundamentals can withstand this macro backdrop

4. Regulatory: SEC Defines DeFi Front-End Rules (5-Year Window)

On April 13, 2026, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released new guidance for DeFi front ends like Uniswap and MetaMask.

• The core shift is clear: these interfaces do not need to register as broker-dealers if they remain purely facilitative layers.

• Users must retain full control over transactions, and platforms must stay non-custodial, meaning no handling of private keys.

• At the same time, the boundaries are tight: Interfaces cannot provide investment advice, manipulate order routing, or monetize through payment for order flow.

• Fees must be simple and transparent, and all conflicts, routing logic, and security practices must be explicitly disclosed.

The critical nuance is temporal. This framework expires on April 13, 2031, effectively giving DeFi a 5-year regulatory runway rather than permanent clarity. It signals tolerance, not full endorsement.

For markets, this removes a major overhang. DeFi front ends have operated in legal gray zones, and this guidance lowers immediate regulatory risk, opening the door for more institutional-grade development on top of existing infrastructure. Net impact is constructive for DeFi, but explicitly time-bound.

5. ETF / ETP Flow Insights

Crypto ETPs saw a strong resurgence last week, recording $1.1B in inflows, the second-largest weekly print of 2026. Flows were driven by improving macro signals, softer US inflation data, and tentative geopolitical stabilization, reinforcing institutional appetite despite continued spot market volatility.

• Bitcoin led flows with $871M in inflows, continuing to anchor institutional exposure. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has attracted ~$1.9B, accounting for ~83% of total crypto ETP inflows (~$2.3B), reinforcing its position as the primary macro proxy within crypto.

• Nearly $1B of inflows originated from the US, ~95% of global flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone contributed ~$786M, highlighting that regulated US vehicles remain the dominant channel for institutional capital deployment

  

• Ethereum recorded ~$196.5M in inflows, its first positive week after three consecutive outflows. However, it remains net negative YTD (~$130M outflows), indicating weaker conviction relative to Bitcoin

  

• XRP saw ~$19M in inflows, while Solana recorded minor outflows (~$2.5M), indicating selective and low-conviction positioning beyond majors.

Net, despite weak broader sentiment, ETP flows signal continued institutional accumulation, with Bitcoin as the clear focal point and Ethereum still lagging in relative positioning.

6. The Week Ahead

The setup is low data density but high sensitivity. Tuesday’s PPI is the primary catalyst, but Thursday’s cluster (claims + Philly Fed + industrial production) is equally capable of shifting rate expectations.

With markets leaning toward a softer inflation path, upside surprises carry asymmetric risk. Fed commentary remains the wild card, with policy signaling capable of overriding data.

Focus: This week tests whether the recent macro stabilization narrative can sustain under real data.

7. Conclusion

Sentiment marginally improved but is now again deeply suppressed at 12, still firmly in extreme fear. There has been no sustained recovery in confidence year-to-date, reflecting a market that remains cautious and reactive rather than conviction-driven.