FoodStuff

The Craft Flip (or How Bagels Stopped Apologizing and You Should To)

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:34:51 GMT

In case you missed the last issue, you can find it here.

This issue:

Vice Moved to the Cup: How indulgence is moving from food to beverages

The Craft Flip: How bagels stopped apologizing (and your brand should to)

Gut Reaction: My quick thoughts on the newest launches

TidBits: The latest in F&B and business news

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Products: Black Sheep Coffee Liquid Cookie beverage; Dunkin 42-ounce iced beverage buckets; McD Candyfloss Frappe;7 Brew Canned Espressos; Dunn Brother Dirty Sodas; Aroma Joe’s Poppin’ Pumpkin Latte topped with candy popping sugar; PJ’s Coffee Bananas Foster-inspired Banana Cold Foam drinks.

Vice Has Moved to the Cup

QSR Magazine recently had a profile of Black Sheep Coffee company where they mention that the company is launching their first drink in an entirely new category that the brand calls Liquid Dessert. The product, called Liquid Cookie, is a combination of half & half and flavored syrup served over ice and topped with crushed M&Ms.

At a time when CPG and a lot of food is being scrutinized for every gram of sugar and trace of artificial dyes it feels strange that we have brands like Dunkin selling full sugar 42-ounce Iced Beverage Buckets (so big they also sell a cup holder converter), McDonald’s UK selling candy floss (cotton candy to Americans) frappes or Caramel Apple Pie drinks (complete with apple pie crumbles) in the US.

I’m not here to yuck anyone’s yum or indulgence shame, I just find the whole trend fascinating. After a career of watching indulgences get shamed in one category and watered down in another, I’ve become a firm believer that vice is never destroyed, its just transformed or moved to new categories that have different scrutiny rules and norms. So much of the indulgence we hyper-focus on and demonized in food and snacks is just moving into beverages. But why? How are beverages able to get away with it?

First, a drink is often experienced as a break, not as a meal. That distinction matters more than it seems. A meal activates a nutritional accountability playbook in the consumer’s head. “What am I feeding myself” is a question people ask about lunch. Few ask about it about their afternoon coffee (“it’s just coffee!”). The drink sits in a psychological liminal space closer to “small reward” than “sustenance,” and rewards get different rules. A 600-calorie Frappuccino and a 600-calorie slice of cake contain the same energy, but only one of them triggers guilt, because only one of them feels like “eating.”

Beverages are also purchased in a different mental mode. You buy packaged food in a grocery aisle, under fluorescent lights, with a nutrition panel facing you, in a deliberate evaluation state. You buy a Dutch Bros drink at a window, in motion, in an impulse state, often while doing something else, on the way to somewhere else. The purchase context suppresses scrutiny.

Then there’s the opacity of the format, and I mean that literally. You can see every ingredient in a candy bar (every nut, every bit of gooey caramel). You can see the dye on a Froot Loop. You cannot see a lot of what’s in your cup. Much of the visual shame cue is absent when its only coming up through a straw. The consumer doesn’t confront the product the way they confront a plate of food.

Customization plays a role too. When you build a drink (choose the base, choose the syrup, choose the foam, choose the add-ins), the act of choosing creates a feeling of agency. That feeling counterweights the indulgence. “I built this” sits differently in your head than “I grabbed this.” It’s the same reason cooking at home feels more virtuous than ordering takeout even when the home-cooked meal has more calories. The labor of choice provides a permission structure.

And maybe the biggest factor: doing it so frequently normalizes it. Buying a coffee every morning is an entrenched habit. It doesn’t feel like a decision. Layering 400 calories of cream, syrup, and cold foam onto that habit doesn’t register as a new behavior. Instead, it registers as a modification of an existing one. The baseline habit (I get a coffee) absorbs the indulgence (the coffee is now a dessert) without triggering the alarm that a new indulgent habit would. If someone suddenly started eating a slice of cake every morning they’d notice (unless it was part of their everyday muffin). Turning their coffee into a slice of cake happened gradually enough that they didn’t.

All of this adds up to a format that has structural permission to be indulgent in ways that food no longer does. And the market is responding accordingly. While the innovation energy in indulgent food is declining, the innovation energy in indulgent beverages is surging. Dutch Bros, 7 Brew, Swig, Fiiz, the entire dirty soda ecosystem, Starbucks’ customization platform, and Sonic’s drink-first strategy. These aren’t niche SKUs, in fact, these high margin offerings are probably keeping struggling chains afloat right now.

For CPG food companies, this should be an uncomfortable realization. Every reformulation that strips sugar, removes a dye, or swaps in a functional ingredient is a rational response to regulatory and cultural pressure. But each one also pushes the product further from the indulgence occasion. But, as I said earlier, that occasion doesn’t evaporate, it just moves to a format most food companies don’t play in. Hershey, Mars, and General Mills’ have minimal beverage presence. That means that the companies formulating themselves out of true indulgence in food and the companies capturing it in beverages are, overwhelmingly, different companies. Dutch Bros grew revenue 32% last year. 7 Brew is opening 400 locations in 2026. Swig went from zero to 250+ units selling dirty sodas. That growth is coming, in part, from indulgence calories that packaged food voluntarily surrendered. CPG food companies are reformulating their way out of a consumer need that still exists, and handing the demand to operators and beverage players who don’t show up in their competitive tracking, don’t share their retail buyers, and don’t attend their trade shows. Or to put it in business speak, the indulgence TAM didn’t shrink as much as it moved into a cup.

The Craft Flip (or How Bagels Stopped Apologizing and You Should To)

It’s not your imagination, bagels are back. After barely surviving the bleak winter of low-carb and gluten-free, bagels are now growing at a pace not seen since the Lender’s heydays of the mid-1980s.

Much of this is due to private equity and venture capital flooding the category. Tiger Global valued PopUp Bagels at $300M (up from $60M months earlier) and invested accordingly (as did Stripes at $35M). Invus (an early Cava backer) bought a majority stake in Call Your Mother (a fast-growing bagel deli). However, what’s really telling is that Manhattan Funds launched a literal “Bagel Equity Fund” last year with the goal of buying bagel shops across the US and rebranding and scaling them as Go Bagels NYC.

But all that only explains where the cash is coming from, not the underlying reason why bagels are so hot right now. Which leads us to why I think this ‘bagel renaissance’ is actually an important case study for everyone in food and bev right now. Bagels have made a comeback, as far as I can tell, for four reasons (with the fourth the most important for the CPG world):

1. COVID-migration: I honestly wouldn’t have thought of this one, but Jeff Perera (CEO of Jeff’s Bagel Run) brought this up in Franchise Times piece and it makes sense. The pandemic caused people from the Northeast US to move to suburbs and across the country. Their love and appreciation for a specific quality of bagel moved with them, creating demand.

2. Growth of QSR Breakfast: Bagels are in the right place at the right time. QSR breakfast takeout market is projected to roughly double from $109.6 billion in 2025 to $213.7 billion by 2035. Bagels are uniquely suited to this: dense, portable, hand-held, customizable, and perceived as more “real food” than a granola bar or a McGriddle.

3. Tech has solved scaling: Bagels are notoriously fussy to make. Heavy dough you need to cut, proof, boil, and then bake. Batch-made is the norm, so not super friendly to scaling in QSR. However new technology and techniques (i.e., programmable combi-ovens with centralized commissary dough distribution) has made ‘real’ bagels something achievable while keeping margins high.

4. The Craft Explosion: The thing that’s really driving a move back to bagels, in my opinion, is how justification for a boiled carb ring has gone from subtraction and macros (i.e., take out the gluten, pump up the protein or fiber) to glorifying the technique. In essence, bagels have entered their craft beer moment and this should be a wake-up call for anyone working in food and bev innovation right now.

Let me explain: BagelFest, which started in 2019 as a small gathering of bagel obsessives, is now a bicoastal event sponsored by King Arthur Baking Company. In 2025, every single top bagel award winner was a sourdough bagel, a brand new type of bagel. The “Best Bagel in America” award went to Starship Bagel in Dallas, which also became the first bagel shop to be a James Beard finalist for Outstanding Bakery. Let me say that again, not a New York shop but a Dallas shop (it’s like the reverse of that old Pace salsa commercial).

What’s happening on the West Coast is particularly telling. LA and San Diego aren’t trying to replicate the New York bagel. Instead, they’re building something different: grain-forward, fermentation-driven bagels that are less rigid in makeup and really challenge the East Coast orthodoxy.

The reason all this matters beyond bagels is this: the way consumers are justifying carbs (or any demonized food) has fundamentally changed.

For roughly fifteen years, the dominant playbook in food innovation has been subtraction. Remove the gluten, cut the carbs, swap the dairy, pump up the protein. Every carb-heavy product had to earn its place on the plate by becoming less of itself. Cauliflower pizza crust, chickpea pasta, keto bread, protein bagels. The pitch was always some version of “you can still have this thing you love, but we’ve engineered away the parts that make you feel guilty.”

But the actual growth in bagels isn’t coming from brands serving up nutritional apologies. Instead, it’s coming from the opposite direction. PopUp Bagels’ entire brand is built on serving them hot, unsliced, with schmear on the side for dipping (“Grip, Rip and Dip®” is their trademarked slogan, along with “Bagels as they should be.”) No sandwiches, no toasting, no modifications. The shops winning national awards are making sourdough bagels with longer fermentation, more chew, more crust. They’re adding to the experience, not subtracting from it. And consumers aren’t just tolerating the carbs, they’re paying a premium for them and then posting about them. The permission structure has flipped from “this won’t hurt you” to “this is worth it.”

That ‘this is worth it’ piece is key and, now that I’ve pointed in out in bagels, you’ll see that flip everywhere.

In frozen pizza, Detroit-style grew 117% year-over-year on menus while Instacart data shows cauliflower crust sales declining (probably why Caulipower is launching that high protein version above) while Neapolitan-style is surging. Di Fara, the iconic Brooklyn pizzeria, doubled its frozen line. The maximalist, regionally specific pizza formats are winning and the subtraction formats are retreating.

In pasta, consumers are trading up to bronze-die extruded, slow-dried premium pasta (Barilla launched its Al Bronzo line as a separate premium tier), while the “alternative” pasta wave (chickpea, lentil, edamame) has plateaued after years of growth.

In dairy, butter is having its own craft moment. Canada now has a dedicated retail store (Butter Bar) built entirely around butter. Grass-fed butter is showing up as a hero ingredient in snack bars (Cozy’s Butterbars). All the while, cultured and European-style butters continue to take share from margarine and plant-based spreads.

The pattern across all of these is the same. The commodity version of the product had trained consumers to believe the category was inherently mediocre. Once someone encounters a ‘properly’ made version (a hand-rolled, kettle-boiled sourdough bagel, a bronze-die pasta, a Detroit-style pizza with caramelized cheese edges), the commodity version becomes unacceptable, and the whole price/value equation resets upward. People don’t want a bagel that apologizes for being a bagel, they want a bagel that’s so good it doesn’t need to.

I think the implication for anyone working in food and bev innovation is: the subtraction era is winding down (or at least heavily splintering). What’s replacing it isn’t indulgence-without-guilt (which was always more of a marketing story than a consumer reality anyway) it’s a recalibration of what “worth it” means. Consumers are choosing fewer, better carbs rather than more, worse substitutes. A sourdough bagel twice a week beats a daily protein bagel that tastes like a puck, and people are spending accordingly.

If you’re sitting on a category you’ve written off as mature or commoditized, the bagel boom should make you rethink that. Just look at some of the examples I’ve pulled above in terms of recent launches, everything from jerky to gelatin. You shouldn’t be asking yourself whether your category has peaked, you should be asking whether the commodity version of your product has been suppressing demand that a craft version could unlock.

Innovation That Actually Works

Most teams have no shortage of data. What they lack is a way to turn it into a profitable, future-ready portfolio. Too often, innovation ends up trapped in templates, recycled playbooks, and launches that feel safe but stall out.

Malachite is different. We don’t push frameworks for the sake of process. We build strategies rooted in real consumer needs, sharpen portfolios, and design innovations that stick. All done in facilitated concert with your team. It’s innovation built for profitable outcomes, not theater.

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Earth-Fed Muscle Nocturnal; Sleep Protein; True Nutrition

GUT REACTION

Products: PopTart X Buzzballz; SunnyD SpookyD Mystery Flavor; SidePiece Snacks; Benope Buttermellow Cookie Protein Shake Pouch; Curd Protein Pudding

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3 Innovation Flaws That Cause 90% of Launch Failures

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 22:03:40 GMT

In case you missed the last issue, you can find it here.

This issue:

Protein Goes Home: The beverage category is suddenly ground zero for protein (again)

Innovation Woes: The 3 Biggest Issues Hurting CPG Innovation

Gut Reaction: My quick thoughts on the newest launches

TidBits: The latest in F&B and business news

Subscribe now

Products: Jumex Protein Shakes; Ghost Yoo-Hoo; 12oz Bucked Up Protein Soda at Walmart; NOON Liquid Breakfast launches at Target; Free Rein Cold Brew Coffee with Protein; Whole Supp. Body Fuel; yfood expands This is Food to 10K UK stores; Premier Protein Soda and Ultimate Shake; Nurri Kids; Adonis Protein soda; Pure Genius Pink Lemonade Protein Shot

The Protein War Returns to Beverages

After nearly a decade of saturating everything from popcorn to Pop Tarts, protein is now turning its sights on the category where supplemental protein literally started: beverages. We are seeing an explosion of new protein beverages hitting the market, from enhanced protein shakes to sparkling sodas to protein-fortified coffees and complete meals in a can.

What’s interesting is: these products have almost nothing in common other than the word ‘protein.’

Protein is now in so many items and so easy to get that it’s fracturing the original jobs that protein shakes were hired to do (i.e., meal replacement and post-workout muscle recovery). The numbers seem to bear this out.

Back in May, BellRing’s CEO Darcy Davenport said that they were seeing a contraction in RTD protein shake spending per household, the first decline in buy rate over five years. The company’s answer is to hit the opposite ends of the barbell. If standard protein shakes are losing the casual consumer (likely to other formats like bars and shots being “hired” for the position), their answer is protein soda (15g, light and refreshing) and heavy-duty shakes (42g, maximum delivery). Smart and strategic, but also revealing. When the category leader responds to softening demand by launching two products that contradict each other, it tells you the middle is hollowing out. The “casually committed” protein consumer, the one who tossed a Premier Protein in her Costco cart because it seemed like a reasonable healthy choice, is dissolving into “truly casual” and “truly committed.” BellRing is chasing both ends because it can feel the center collapsing.

As I take a step back and look at the protein beverage space, I see four main jobs to be done (with some embedded sub-jobs) driving the category volatility. Each still has consumers willing to hire beverages, but some are increasingly becoming the frontrunners.

Job 1: Maximum macros for the committed consumer

This is where BellRing’s 42g Ultimate product sits. The consumer tracks grams and wants each serving maximized. Now that a shot (like Pure Genius) can deliver 23g, the play for shakes is to offer meaningfully more. This is the legacy job defended, not a growth play. It’s a finite audience with durable demand but has a low ceiling.

But there’s a more interesting move happening within this job. Jumex just entered the category with 30g shakes in Churro Chocolate, Mango, and Vanilla Flan. This is a smart play because its more about people than protein. Jumex is betting that the shake format has untapped demographic headroom even as the mainstream casual consumer drifts to other formats. The Hispanic consumer has been underserved by vanilla/chocolate/cookies and cream for years, and Jumex has six decades of flavor credibility to bring to the shelf. This is similar to what we’ve seen with plant-based: when the core growth story stalls, the next chapter is cultural expansion, not product intensification.

The strategic lesson from Job 1: the ceiling on “more protein for existing consumers” is real, but the ceiling on “protein for consumers who were never invited to the party” may be much higher.

Job 2: Permission to drink a soda

A new product in this space pops up every day. There is so much hype here, but I think it’s a very fragile platform.

Protein is giving permission for having a soda, not serving as a significant macro like the job above. 10-15g is enough for a label claim, but not game-changing in a world where cookies and ice cream have the same (or more).

This is a real consumer job, but it’s a vulnerable one, for several reasons. Prebiotics (like those in Poppi) are doing this successfully. Could protein join in? Sure, but it’s not as easy to add protein to soda and get something resembling a Coke or Sprite, formulation-wise. Then there is the cost aspect. Protein isn’t cheap (and its getting more expensive every day), whereas a sprinkling of prebiotics is pennies.

My read: the ceiling here is probably kombucha (real category, meaningful sales, passionate consumer base, never forces Big Bev’s hand) rather than Poppi (mainstream crossover that triggers billion-dollar acquisitions).

Job 3: Complete nutrition in a can

This is the territory where NOON, Whole Supp Body Fuel, Huel, Soylent, and yfood sit. Protein is one ingredient in a broader completeness story: fiber, vitamins, minerals, whole-food ingredients.

The positioning here is the most defensible against the protein backlash (yes, that’s a thing, and its growing) because the claim isn’t “more protein” as much as it is “more complete nutrition.” You can’t attack these products for putting an insufficient amount of protein on a label, because protein isn’t the headline (completeness is).

NOON is the smartest play in this space because it owns one specific occasion (breakfast) rather than positioning as universal meal replacement, which has always hit a consumer acceptance ceiling. Soylent and Huel proved that “replace all your meals with a drink” triggers deep psychological resistance in most people. We like chewing. We like the ritual of food. NOON’s narrow occasion focus and its branding (”breakfast can happen anytime”) is an attempt to dodge that resistance by saying: we’re not trying to replace food. We’re trying to replace the granola bar you grabbed because you were running late. That’s a much smaller ask, and probably a much bigger market.

This vector also has the widest potential to pull in consumers who didn’t choose the protein trend at all. GLP-1 users need nutrient density because their appetite is medically suppressed. Parents are looking for complete nutrition solutions for picky eaters (e.g., Nurri Kids). Neither group is “protein-seeking” in the way the other vectors assume. They’re nutrition-seeking, and protein happens to be part of the package. That’s a signal that this Job has addressable demand well beyond the “protein consumer” as traditionally defined.

Job 4: Protein layered onto an existing daily ritual

This is where protein gets added to things you already drink every day: coffee, smoothies, juice.

This is likely the lowest-friction play in the protein beverage landscape because it requires zero behavior change. You were going to drink coffee tomorrow morning anyway. Now your coffee has protein in it. There’s no new occasion to create, no new habit to build, no consumer education required beyond “your normal stuff, now with protein.”

That matters more than it sounds. Every other vector I’ve covered so far asks consumers to do something new. Protein soda is close, but it requires accepting a texture change. Complete nutrition asks you to drink a meal. Even the 42g shake asks committed consumers to trade up to a new product. Protein coffee and protein smoothies ask you to do exactly what you were already doing.

The vulnerability is that “protein + existing thing” is trivially easy to copy. There are no real formulation moats here. If Free Rein proves the protein coffee format at Walmart, every major coffee brand can follow within a quarter. The first-mover advantage in this vector is thin, which means the winners will likely be the brands with the strongest existing coffee (or smoothie, or juice) credentials rather than insurgents who arrive with protein credibility but no format credibility.

Where the category goes from here

If I had to rank these vectors by strength of the underlying job, defensibility of the claim, and size of the addressable occasion, here’s where I’d land.

Ritual modification (Job 4) has the largest addressable occasion and the least consumer friction. It won’t produce the flashiest brand stories, but it will produce the most volume because it’s parasitic on existing daily habits rather than trying to create new ones.

Complete nutrition (Job 3) has the most defensible positioning and the widest potential consumer base, especially as GLP-1 adoption grows and the definition of “protein consumer” expands to include people who need protein for clinical reasons, not lifestyle ones. The brands that crack the occasion-specific positioning (like NOON with breakfast) without triggering the meal-replacement stigma will build durable businesses.

Performance (Job 1) is the safest and most proven, but the growth story now lives in cultural and demographic expansion (the Jumex play), not in product intensification. The 42g shake will always have its consumer but my guess is that private label and a handful of brands end up being the suppliers.

Permission (Job 2) has the most hype and the thinnest foundation. Protein soda is real and it will sell, but it’s the vector most exposed to the protein-maxxing backlash, most vulnerable to the “is that even enough protein to matter?” critique, and most likely to settle into a niche rather than redefine the mainstream.

The fact that we are seeing the protein fight come back to beverages is almost poetic. It tells me that protein as a single, coherent consumer trend is over. When the same word on a label describes a 42g recovery shake, a 10g fizzy soda, a complete breakfast in a can, and a coffee with whey stirred in, that word has stopped meaning anything specific. The brands that will win in the future won’t be the ones chasing “the protein consumer,” because that doesn’t mean anything anymore. Now you need to know which job they’re actually hired to do.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Filippo Berio simplifies the range for consumers

3 Innovation Flaws That Cause 90% of Launch Failures

According to Bain & Company, in 2025, insurgent brands captured nearly 36% of growth in food & beverage, up sharply from roughly 23% in 2024, despite accounting for less than 2% of total market share.

From the outside (and even from the inside), this makes no sense. Big CPG has more money, more data, more distribution muscle, and more consumer research than any startup will ever have. And yet, the brands reshaping grocery aisles, building cultural relevance, and creating genuine consumer excitement are, disproportionately, not coming from the companies with the resources to do it best.

I know, this isn’t a new observation. But I get tired of the explanations we usually reach for. “Startups are faster.” Sure, but speed alone doesn’t explain why a three-person team operating out of a commercial kitchen in Austin can find a consumer tension that a billion-dollar R&D operation misses entirely. “Big companies are too bureaucratic.” True, but bureaucracy is a symptom, not the disease.

I think there are three distinct reasons big CPG consistently fails to launch the next big thing. When these three are addressed, the odds change dramatically.

1. Focus, Focus, Focus

The most underrated capability in CPG is the ability to say no. Startups have it by default because they have no choice. When you have one shot and limited capital, focus isn’t a strategy as much as it is a survival constraint. You pick the one consumer tension you believe in, you build everything around it, and you either nail it or you go under. (Funny how we conveniently don’t mention those startups.)

Big CPG has the opposite problem. Resources are abundant enough that everything can get a little funding. Every division president and brand manager has a pet initiative. Every category team has a pipeline. Every function has priorities that compete with every other function’s priorities. The result is thirty projects moving at one-third speed instead of three projects moving at full speed.

And honestly? The people running these portfolios aren’t being lazy or stupid. They’re being rational (and politically savvy). Ruthless focus means choosing, and choosing means your name is on the thing that might not work. If you pick three big bets and one of them craters big time, the blame is easy to trace. If you fund thirty things at a low level and nothing spectacular happens either way, nobody’s name gets put on the list for the next round of cuts. Diffusion is a form of organizational camouflage. It feels like risk management (that’s how its sold internally), but it’s not.

When you spread resources across thirty projects, none of them get funded well enough to generate a clear market signal. They each get just enough to survive in the pipeline, not enough to succeed or fail decisively. What you end up with is thirty ambiguous results that teach you nothing. Did the product underperform because the idea was wrong, or because it launched with a fraction of the support it needed? Nobody can tell. So, the project lingers, gets “optimized,” gets another small round of funding, and the cycle repeats.

The useful analogy is venture capital. No serious VC invests $10k each into 500 startups. They pick 20 to 30 and give each one enough capital to reach a real milestone. Some will fail clearly. Some will succeed clearly. The portfolio works because each bet is funded to resolution, not funded to survival.

Big CPG funds for survival. Every project gets just enough to stay alive, just enough to keep showing up in the pipeline review, just enough that nobody has to make the uncomfortable call to kill it. Nothing dies dramatically, which feels safe and comfortable. But you’re paying carrying costs on dozens of zombie projects that will never generate a real signal, while the one or two ideas that could have been breakouts are sitting in the same pipeline, equally starved, equally ambiguous, equally unlikely to get the concentrated investment they’d need to actually work.

The startups currently breaking records in meat snacks probably didn’t have a better insight than the team inside Conagra. What they had were fewer options, which forced conviction. Conviction creates focus. Focus creates speed. Speed creates market signal. And market signal is what big CPG ends up acquiring three years later at a 10x multiple because they couldn’t generate it themselves. Not because they lacked the idea but because they couldn’t bring themselves to choose it.

2. Momentum, Not Speed

Let’s go back to the speed thing, because so many big CPG companies love to talk about speed as the cure to all that ails them. I’m not saying that speeding up is wrong, just that focusing on speed alone misses the real problem: momentum.

When I say momentum, I’m talking about the forward thrust that comes when an early-stage team gains category knowledge, consumer empathy, and group cohesion on a project. Anyone who’s been in those early stages knows that momentum is very real but very difficult to transfer. But big CPG’s operating model requires it to transfer across multiple handoffs, rotations, and translations between the original insight and the shelf. What usually ends up happening is everything just falls apart.

Momentum is killed in handoffs. The team that ran the consumer immersions and felt the tension firsthand hands the project to a commercialization team that inherited a deck, not an experience. The conviction that made the concept sharp was built through months of direct contact with consumers. That conviction lives in people, not in documents, and it doesn’t survive the transfer. The receiving team can be extremely competent, but they’re working from a brief, not from a gut-level belief that this thing needs to exist. Without the memory and passion gained from the consumer interaction, no one on the transfer team is going to stand up and protect these ideas. So, they optimize rather than champion, bend instead of fight. They make reasonable compromises that each feel small in isolation but compound into something unrecognizable.

Momentum dies in the rotation. The brand manager who championed the concept in February is in a different role by the time it’s approaching launch. The new person reads the brief and starts making it theirs, which almost always means changing it. Not because the original was wrong, but because inheriting someone else’s vision wholesale doesn’t get you promoted. The insight was right 18 months ago and it’s probably still right, but the person who believed it in their bones is gone, and belief-by-PowerPoint is a poor substitute.

Momentum disappears in the translation. The team that spent three days in consumers’ kitchens watching people struggle with weeknight dinners has a visceral understanding of the problem. By the time that understanding has been converted into a concept statement, then a brief, then a stage-gate presentation, then a cross-functional alignment deck, it’s been translated so many times it reads like every other brief in every other deck. The words are correct, but the energy is just gone.

Speed alone can’t solve for this. You can speed all of that up and still lose. A faster handoff is still a handoff. A quicker rotation still resets the conviction clock. Speed solves for calendar time where preserving momentum solves for the conviction and continuity that make innovation eventually stick.

3. The Dilution Engine

Here’s the cruelest part. Even when a big CPG company manages to focus (problem one) and maintain momentum (problem two), there is a third machine waiting to neutralize it before it reaches shelf.

I call it the dilution engine, and if you’re a longtime reader of FoodStuff, you’ve heard me rant about this before. It’s just what happens when a product built to be distinctive has to pass through systems designed for scale.

The concept starts sharp. There is a real consumer tension: a product that tastes different, looks different, occupies a space that doesn’t exist yet. Then commercialization begins, and the sanding starts. Every group regresses the product to their collective mean.

By the time it reaches the shelf, it’s a ghost of the original concept. The consumer it was designed for doesn’t notice it and leadership points to the underwhelming launch as evidence that “the idea wasn’t strong enough,” when the idea and the underlying job were plenty strong. It just got sanded down to nothing by a machine that can’t help itself.

When the founder of a startup develops a breakthrough snack, nobody asks her to run it through a taste test against the category leader. Nobody tells her that her flavor is “polarizing” to Millennial moms in San Diego. Nobody makes her redesign the packaging to fit the existing shelf set. The product that reached the consumer was the product she intended to make. Yes, that often backfires tremulously for some founders, but for some it provides a fidelity advantage that keeps the signal intact from insight to shelf.

Why This Matters Now

These three problems aren’t new, but seeing them compounding in companies every year. The push to be more profitable, rely more on AI, meet the retailers needs, and beat startups is just exaggerating these problems exponentially.

However, I truly think innovation at big CPG is fixable. This isn’t meant to be an advertisement for my company, but I can say that I’ve helped big companies get over these hurdles, so I know it can be done.

It does require senior leaders thinking differently. There’s a reason some of the biggest successes in big CPG have happened when companies are in a downward spiral: desperation opens up minds and allows in new practices. But it doesn’t need to come to that. Innovation is possible within big CPG. You just need to forget the cliches, easy fixes, and gimmicks and start working on the big three problems.

Products: Oreo x KFC;Alvalle Gazpacho; Campbell’s Chunky Frozen meals; MOOJ Foods; Piiper

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Grocers have entered a ‘new affordability era,’ report notes

The Hackers Behind Coca-Cola’s Fairlife Attack Just Revealed Themselves. Experts Say They Represent a Dangerous New Threat

The problem with modern avocados — and the ancient solution

RFK Jr. hosting a new cooking show with celebrity chefs

What Happened to Talenti?

Why cereal box toys are making a comeback

Startup, Alkelux: more durable food packaging made from liquorice waste

The Internet Suddenly Loves Emeril, Years After His TV Stardom

Amazon sued by consumers over seafood sustainability claims

GLP-1 users’ grocery spending is dropping

Interesting

The rent was already high. Then came the $200 work-from-home fee

The Great Inflammation Panic

Procter & Gamble will acquire supplements brand Thorne for $3.8 billion

Led by Buc-ee’s and new rival Dolly Parton, America’s gas station chains are in a mega-sizing era

Amazon customers are embracing Alexa for Shopping

The social cost of sobriety

Record number of U.S. adults are moving in with their parents as costs rise

Fun & Odd

This Scottish startup saves wild fish by replacing them with Omega-3 algae fed on whisky waste

‘Poop pills’ may ease insomnia by reprogramming the gut microbiome, early study hints (or get rid of your peanut allergy)

The Sardine Manicure Is Summer 2026’s Unexpected Nail-Art Trend

A Key Meat Protein Has Been Grown in Lettuce For The First Time

Q&A: Why a Hollywood chef is offering nude dining

A Physicist Rigged His Pet Hamster’s Wheel to Upload to Strava. It Runs Surprisingly Far Every Night

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Autopilot Eating: Why PB&J is a $1B+ Business

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 22:21:13 GMT

In case you missed the last issue, you can find it here.

This issue:

Autopilot Eating: Why Uncrustables are the beginning of a new occasion

Protein Bars are in Crisis: The identity problem in the aisle

Grocery Unbundling: How inflation is permanently changing consumers

Gut Reaction: My quick thoughts on the newest launches

TidBits: The latest in F&B and business news

Subscribe now

Products: Sola Bites at Walmart; Fave’Wich; Welch’s Real PB&Js; Trader Joes PB&J filled Crepes; Aldi PB&J Bites; Rudi’s + Justin’s Sandos

Why PB&J is Booming: The Rise of Autopilot Eating

When I was a kid, my mother was strict about dinner. She made one meal and if you didn’t like it: tough, she wasn’t altering it for you. You either ate it or, as she always said, you are welcome to make yourself a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

I’ve thought a lot about this recently with all the new stuffed PB&J launches. Welch’s, Sola, Rudis, Aldi and Trader Joes, not to mention Smucker reformulating its billion-dollar Uncrustables line to be fridge-ready. That’s six moves, not to mention all the additional private label activity, in about 18 months.

So why is PB&J, the most basic of American sandwiches, having a moment? (No, it’s not just the weakening of Uncrustables’ patent and trade dress).

I think the reason is exactly because of its near default status as non-choice. PB&J isn’t something most adults choose to eat as a meal, it’s what you default to when you just don’t want to deal with thinking about a meal. When the cognitive load of not only making a meal but choosing a meal is too much, PB&J is the no-thought, easy option. It’s the food equivalent of watching another episode of your favorite TV show for the 20th time instead of endlessly scrolling Netflix to find and try something new. It’s comforting, it’s mindless, and most importantly, it’s always guaranteed to satisfy.

I think we’re going to see a growth in what I’m calling ‘autopilot eating’ or ‘choiceless comfort food’ for three reasons:

Growing Decision Fatigue: People’s capacity for low-stakes decisions has been genuinely depleted. Not in some hand-wavy trend report way, but structurally. More SKUs, more dietary frameworks, more nutritional information, more options in every aisle. The cognitive cost of feeding yourself has gone up while the time and energy available for it has gone down. PB&J’s advantage isn’t convenience in the physical sense (a frozen burrito is also convenient). Its advantage is convenience in the cognitive sense. You already know you like it. You already know what it tastes like. You don’t need to read the back of the package and you don’t need to challenge your taste buds.

The Disappearing Occasion: This is the specific moment where that fatigue is felt most acutely. There’s a growing number of moments in people’s days that aren’t meals and aren’t planned snacks. They’re just gaps. You’re between meetings, between kid pickups, between tasks. You’re not hungry enough to commit to lunch, but you need something. A frozen burrito is too much commitment for that moment. A bar is too joyless. A PB&J is the exactly right emotional register: substantial enough to count, effortless enough to not feel like a decision, and familiar enough to deliver a small hit of comfort alongside the calories.

The Permission Layer: This is the part that’s actually new and that explains the timing. PB&J as a concept has always been simple and universally liked, but it’s historically carried a “kid food” frame that made it socially awkward for adults to eat intentionally. What’s changed is that the protein fortification trend has given brands a way to re-credential the format. When Welch’s puts “12g protein” on the front of the box, or Sola leads with protein and fiber, they’re not just adding a functional benefit, they’re providing adults with a rationalization narrative. “I’m not eating a kid’s sandwich. I’m eating a high-protein snack.” The product hasn’t fundamentally changed but the story the consumer tells themselves about eating it has.

It’s also worth watching how these competitors are sequencing their attacks, because it tells you where the category is headed. The competitive axis isn’t flavor or brand as much as it’s friction. Uncrustables started frozen (plan ahead, wait to thaw). Then Kraft-Heinz created no thaw Lunchable sandwiches for the fridge (grab and eat within five days). Sola and Trader Joes (with crepes) went shelf-stable (no cold chain at all). Each entrant strips out one more layer of friction, and each move gets the product closer to the moment of impulse.

PB&J is the first winner in this space, but the framework suggests where to look for others. A food qualifies as autopilot eating if it meets four criteria: near-universal flavor acceptability, deep nostalgic embedding, zero cuisine commitment, and a plausible path to nutritional re-credentialing. Grilled cheese clears all four. A basic quesadilla probably clears three (it carries a slight cuisine specificity, but they are so mainstream as to not be). Peanut butter and banana might work. A simple ham and cheese might as well. The products that will win this space won’t be exciting or novel, they’ll be the ones so familiar that reaching for them requires no thought at all.

The Identity Crisis in the Protein Bar Aisle

It really wasn’t that long ago when, if you wanted to quickly supplement your diet with a large amount of protein, you either made a protein shake or you went to protein bar aisle.

However, today that’s all changed. Now, you can’t swing your hand basket in the supermarket without hitting your protein goals! Pop Tarts, chips, candy, and bread are now stuffed with protein. Yes, they may not be as ‘clean’ as some may want them to be, but they’re tasty. Then there are the up-and-coming formats like protein gels and light weight beverages and treats that manage to stuff more protein into a smaller, less caloric space then a bar.

When protein is so easy to get, what becomes the purpose of the bar?

The problem is that high-protein bars are trapped in a corner. They are categorically compelled to be roughly the same shape, same weight, and deliver the same amount of protein as their neighbors on the shelf. So, what do you do when your functional advantage disappears and your format is a straitjacket?

You stop selling protein and start selling identity.

The Great Divergence

Look at the protein bar aisle today and you’ll see three distinct escape strategies playing out in real time.

The first is the luxury exit. David, the second act from RXBAR founder Peter Rahal, is the clearest example. It has a gold wrapper, serif typeface, and minimalist subway ads with zero copy. David’s specs are genuinely impressive (28g protein, 150 calories, 0g sugar), but the specs exist to give you permission to buy what is essentially a status object you eat. Rahal flipped the standard aisle convention where bars organize by flavor first. David leads with the brand across every SKU. Gold (or Bronze) is the base color and flavor is secondary. That’s a packaging decision that is about all about building a badge and a platform to expand beyond the category. They’ve already expanded into frozen and canned cod, as well as ice cream, applying the same macro-forward, design-heavy treatment to entirely different protein sources. David isn’t building a bar brand as much as it is building a body-optimization lifestyle brand that happened to start with bars.

The second is the simplicity and/or ancestral exit (see brands like Prima or Lineage). Jacked Granny sells a bar with four ingredients and a grandma on the label. The signal is the opposite of David’s but just as deliberate. It says: “I see through the marketing and the overprocessing, I don’t need the flash and pretense, just real food.” Where David uses bold gold foil packaging, Jacked Granny now comes in a can to say: “we believe in real food and old-fashioned preservation.”

The third may be the most commercially potent of all: the indulgence exit (e.g., Grenade and Barebells). Barebells has quietly climbed to 12% market share by abandoning the protein bar’s self-seriousness entirely. Bright packaging, dessert-forward flavors, playful branding. It’s coded as treat, not a tool. The protein is almost incidental to the experience, which is exactly the point. David sells you a better version of yourself, Jacked Granny sells you an honest version of yourself and Barebells sells you permission to not think about it at all. And “I want something that tastes like a Snickers and happens to have 20g of protein” is an appeal that reaches far beyond either the optimization tribe or the clean-eating purists.

Three different escape routes and three different answers to the same question: not “how much protein?” but “what’s your relationship with food?” Disciplined, pure, or joyful. Pick one.

The Sneaker Problem

Now here’s the framework that clarifies what’s happening: protein bars are becoming sneakers.

The underlying function (walking, running, delivering protein) is table stakes. Everyone does it. The real product is the story the object lets you tell about yourself. Nike didn’t win by making better shoes. Nike won by making shoes that said something about you. In the same way, David isn’t winning by making better bars. David is winning by making bars that mean something.

This is the shift that should keep the incumbents up at night. When a category moves from functional competition to identity competition, the brands that built their empires on functional superiority lose their advantage and their relevance.

The Vulnerable Middle

Take a brand like Quest, it holds roughly 22% of the protein bar market. They are the category leader by a comfortable margin. They solved the foundational problem of the category better than almost anyone: high protein, low sugar, low net carbs, and all with a taste and texture people like. If you just want reliable protein in bar form, Quest is the obvious, safe, satisfying pick.

But that’s exactly the problem. In its ubiquity, Quest has become the bar you buy when you’ve stopped thinking about which bar you buy. The days of people posting their Quest bar choice on Instagram are fading. Few people are building their identity around choosing Quest. This isn’t so much their fault, they rose to prominence when making a good tasting functional bar was difficult. But now that solution has been commoditized and pure function as a position is exposed.

The squeeze comes from both ends. From above, brands like David and Barebells are pulling away consumers who want their bar to say something about them. From below, private-label protein bars from Costco and Kroger deliver comparable macros at 20-30% less. If you don’t care about brand story and just want the protein, Kirkland Signature will get you there for less money.

What’s left for the brand in the middle? The one that offers neither meaning nor savings? Just competence?

What Comes Next

The interesting question isn’t whether this shakeout will happen but more whether the middle-tier brands can retrofit a cultural identity onto products that consumers already think of as purely utilitarian. The evidence from other categories suggests that’s extraordinarily difficult. Identity must be baked in from the start. Bolting an identity story on at this stage would feel like exactly what it is: a marketing campaign, not a point of view. Not impossible, just very, very difficult.

The protein bar was once the only convenient answer to a simple question: how do I get more protein? Now that every product in the store can answer that question, the bar must answer a harder one: not what do you eat but who are you when you eat it.

The Great Unbundling: What Inflation will Do To CPG

The AP had a great story last week that succinctly said what we all know: grocery prices are out of control. Exhibit A:

When I talk about this with clients, the pushback I frequently get is ‘it will go back down, consumers will bounce back, this is temporary.’ But that logic ignores centuries of history. We don’t need to go back to the Black Plague (but I could), just the Great Depression to see this play out. In 1930, Michael Cullen opened King Kullen, the first real grocery store. The economic hardship of the Depression made the supermarket model viable for the first time. Suddenly consumers would drive further, forgo the relationship with their grocer, and browse instead of asking for items by name, all in exchange for lower prices. It destroyed the old grocery model within 15 years. The entire CPG ecosystem we know today (brand advertising, shelf placement, trade promotion, slotting fees) is a child of that format.

The pattern repeated: 1970s stagflation produced generics, warehouse clubs, and private label as a real category. The 2008 recession produced another increase of private label share that never fully reversed.

The question is never “how will consumers cope?” It’s “what new system is being born that we can’t see because we’re describing it in the vocabulary of the last one?”

My prediction is that the grocery store model that King Kullen pioneered becomes unbundled by inflation-weary consumers. While grocery stores are currently the center of gravity for most peoples’ food purchases, you can already see this eroding as consumers ‘shop around’ for better prices. I see the bundle separating along three seams:

Layer 1: Infrastructure. Staples, cleaning products, paper goods, cooking basics, and foundational snacks. Migrating to auto-replenishment (Subscribe & Save, Walmart+, whatever Costco builds next). Decision happens once, then recurs on autopilot. Brand is nearly irrelevant here. Private label wins by default. Once a consumer sets up auto-replenishment with a store brand, the activation energy to switch back is enormous. You’d have to intercept them in a store they’re no longer visiting for that product.

Layer 2: Curation and entertainment. Where the treat economy lives. Discovery isn’t the shelf, it’s the algorithm. Purchase cycle isn’t weekly replenishment, it’s impulse driven by cultural velocity. Channel isn’t the supermarket, it’s Trader Joe’s, specialty, convenience, DTC. Competitive advantage isn’t distribution muscle or shelf space, it’s speed-to-market, cultural relevance, and “postability.” Winning brands here are small, fast, aesthetically sharp, comfortable being a sensation for eight weeks then rotating out. That’s an operating model 18-month stage-gate innovation processes cannot serve.

Layer 3: Fresh and sensory. Produce, meat, dairy, bakery. The part that still demands proximity and touch. Last defensible reason for the physical store to exist. Smart grocers will eventually shrink dramatically and reorganize around this. Less “supermarket with a perimeter,” more “European market hall with a small center store.” The perimeter becomes the store. The center aisle becomes a vestigial organ. I think Walmart and Amazon will pull this off with a showcase in front that draws you in with fresh and sensory cues and then provides micro/nano-fulfillment out the back. (It’s my Reverse Mullet Theory of Grocery Stores: party in the front, business in the back).

I think we’ll look back at the Great Inflation of 2026-2027 as the last days of the traditional grocery store.

Products: Hydrating Hand Sanitizers, Mountain Dew, Sour Patch Kids, Gushers; Buffalo Wild Wings Poppin’ Ranch; Skip Magnesium Sparkling Beverage; Dime MSG Scallion Ranch; Nissin Cold Water rehydrate Cup Noodle.

TIDBITS

Food Industry

McKinsey: The State of Grocery in North America 2026

How Burger King is preparing for the GLP-1 revolution

‘Don’t Listen to the Box. Listen to Me’: Boxed Cake Mix Hack Goes Viral

Uber Is in Advanced Talks to Acquire Germany’s Delivery Hero

PepsiCo’s turnaround stutters as Americans rethink snacking

Coca-Cola files application to trademark ‘Spricy’

Everyone Wants More Protein. Campbell’s Has a New Soup for That

Nanovel Secures €2.5 Million EIC Accelerator Grant for Autonomous Citrus Harvesting Robots

The Latest Gig Economy Hustle? Restaurant Line-Sitting.

Gen Z is drinking alcohol as much as older generations, data shows

Instacart acquires shelf-scanning technology startup

Can Mickey Mouse Really Save Kraft Heinz?

Utz Brands to be acquired by Intersnack Group in $2.9B transaction

Interesting

What a Monopoly importer learned when it tried to make things in the U.S.A.

42% of adults rely on their parents for financial support

He Earns $33 an Hour as a Costco Cashier. Now He’s a Millionaire.

Bath & Body Works Is on a Quest for Another Billion-Dollar Scent

The Center of Our Galaxy Is More Like a Raspberry Donut Than We Realized

Why George Clooney bought an electric suit

Eli Lilly to buy psychedelics maker AtaiBeckley for $2.8 billion

Could The Keto Diet Be Fueling Cancer? New Study Challenges Popular Theory

Why Young People in China Are Buying Feelings

The Cannabis Workout Trend Is Growing Fast. The Evidence Is Still Catching Up

“I’m 38 and I Can’t Support Myself Anymore”

UT Health San Antonio identifies the first potential probiotic treatment for lupus

A visual field guide to the chili peppers of the world

This $46 Million Toilet Startup Is Betting Smart Seats Can Be A Billion-Dollar Business

CVS is making it easier for pet owners with a new perk

Fun & Odd

This German Man Is on a Quest to Cut the Perfect Slice of Bread

New foods at the Minnesota State Fair 2026

Salty, Buttery, Astonishingly Lucrative: The $100 Million Market of Popcorn Buckets

This Chicago Spirit Quadrupled Sales With Ads Likening It to Fermented Back Sweat

Helena Minginowicz Transforms Humble Paper Towel into Ethereal Paintings

The United States of Hot Dogs tells an all-American story

Wild Edible Cattails: 5 Parts You Can Eat, Forage Safely, and How to Cook Them

Museum honors a late artist by covering its floor in enough peanut butter to make 15,000 sandwiches

Giant Banana Pulled Over in Montana: Driver Says Cops Have Stopped Him 100s Of Times

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Dungeon Crawler Carl is the Future of CPG

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 22:12:28 GMT

In case you missed the last issue, you can find it here.

This issue:

Into the Dungeon: Thinking beyond the category

Upcycling 2.0: The return of returns

Oats go post-functional: Why an old grain is having a comeback

Gut Reaction: My quick thoughts on the newest launches

TidBits: The latest in F&B and business news

Subscribe now

Products: Jesse Jams, jams with electrolytes; Gamsa Foods savory oatmeal; Croots snacking croutons; NEAP collagen protein gel; Lil’ Melts beef tallow cubes; Chenzi Chicken Potato Balls; MyFit Strips oral microbiome energy strips

Dungeon Crawler Carl is the Future of CPG

One of the best book series I’ve read in the past decade involves an intergalactic reality show, a psychotic AI, a man who spends the whole series wearing only boxer shorts, and a sentient cat named Princess Donut who can shoot laser beams out of her eyes. This is the world of Dungeon Crawler Carl and, if all this seems like a ridiculously niche small subgenre of fiction, well, you’d be half right. It is amazingly (addictively) ridiculous and it is niche, but it is by no means small. With over 10 million copies sold, 19 weeks on the NYT best seller list, and the recent announcement that Peacock has picked it up for a live action show (with Family Guy-creator Seth MacFarlane as the showrunner) DCC is the biggest thing you probably have never heard of.

However, I’m not writing this to convince you to read this series (OK, maybe a little), but more to talk about how DCC’s success foreshadows the future of retail in general, including CPG. A future that many big brands (and retailers) aren’t yet prepared for.

The Dungeon Crawler series didn’t begin inside a big publishing house, it was self-published. The author, Matt Dinniman, wrote it during the pandemic and the algorithms of Kindle Unlimited and Audible worked their magic to push it up the charts. The important thing to know is that DCC doesn’t fit neatly into a specific genre. It’s not exactly sci-fi or fantasy but a very new genre called LitRPG (Literature Role-Playing Game). If DCC had started out in Barnes & Noble, it likely would never have survived on shelf next to bigger titles. The category structure would have killed it before readers could find it.

This is where you start to see the CPG connection. Just like bookstores, the grocery store is siloed and optimized by category, structurally blind to competition across them. In this system, a protein cookie gets benchmarked against cookies. But the consumer doesn’t think in aisles. They are thinking broader, about outcome, comparing that cookie to yogurt, a shake, and a wrap. As a recent Mondelez report shows, consumers are increasingly seeing snacks as solving needs that span the store, much more than the category can hold. At the end of the day, the system and the shopper are running on different operating principles.

This is where DTC (the self-publishing arm of food), cultural-pull channels (Instagram, food media, TikTok), and more category fluid channels (e.g., c-stores) have the upper hand. They organize by affinity, occasion, and behavior, not by aisle. That’s why the most interesting brands are building demand here first. Not because DTC margins are better (they often aren’t) but because those channels let the product find its audience without answering “what shelf does this go on” right at the start.

Take a brand like Fishwife. It built cultural demand in a channel (DTC and pop-ups) with no category structure and arrived at retail with enough pull that retailers had to accommodate it. Now it sits in three different shelf locations depending on the store. This never would have happened in a traditional, category-focused model. Fishwife didn’t fit the shelf, so it made the shelf fit it, just like DCC did to bookstores.

Brands and retailers that refuse to acknowledge their category myopia aren’t just missing the latest trend, they are also misallocating competition. A snack bar’s real competitive set includes Greek yogurt, cheese sticks, almonds, and a Fishwife tin. The category review only sees bar vs. bar. Trade spend, innovation pipeline, and shelf defense are all calibrated to a competitive frame the consumer isn’t using. You’re fortifying a border that nobody is trying to cross.

But the biggest structural problem for big CPG is that the entire commercialization funnel (concept testing, category review, buyer pitch, planogram placement, velocity benchmarking) requires category legibility as an input. If you can’t answer “what is this a better version of,” you don’t get through. That filter is rejecting the SKUs that don’t match the category norm, calling them niche, weird, and therefore shelfless.

My point is not “abandon category management.” It’s that the companies treating DTC (and trial channels like c-stores) as afterthought channels are missing that those channels are the only places in their system where a cross-category product can survive long enough to prove demand. DTC really isn’t a margin play, it’s a category-free incubation environment. Smart brands need to be using it that way.

Just like Dungeon Crawler Carl, the next billion-dollar CPG brand probably doesn’t fit cleanly on any existing shelf. The question is whether the company that owns it will let it prove itself elsewhere or kill it in StageGate review because it wouldn’t fit in the existing planogram.

Products: Wasted, pasta from bread waste US launch; Trash upcycled cacao water; Penrhos Gin; B Sides Snack; Rubies in the Rubble hot sauce; Roots Farm Fresh Sweet Potato Tots

Recycling Upcycling

About 5 years ago, upcycling seemed to be everywhere in food and beverage. There was spent grain snack bars and lots of ‘ugly fruit’ making its way back into the supply chain. Then it kind of all went away. Of course, it still existed in the hardcore sustainable corners of the consumer market, but it had lost its forward mainstream momentum.

Now it’s back, but upcycled has been recycled into something different.

In the same way that plant-based had a small death around 2021 and is just now beginning a resurrection via taste and value, upcycling is coming back in a new form. Yes, there is still a veneer of sustainability, but upcycling’s new, very timely hook is all about frugality and waste itself.

What’s different today, versus 2021, is the level of economic uncertainty. When consumers feel financially compressed, waste stops being an abstract environmental problem and becomes a personal one. It’s the same psychology that drives the thrift store boom among people who can absolutely afford new clothes, TikTok pantry-clean-out cooking, “use every part of the animal” nose-to-tail culture, and the broader resurrection of Depression-era home economics content on YouTube. Resourcefulness is becoming a status signal. “I found value where others didn’t” is a more powerful purchase motivator than “I saved the planet a little.” The consumer isn’t buying upcycled products to save money, they are buying them to perform the idea of resourcefulness.

You’ve heard of conspicuous consumption? Upcycled food represents something closer to what you might call conspicuous anti-waste.

The numbers back this up. NielsenIQ lists “upcycled” among the fastest-growing product claims in the U.S. SPINS data shows Upcycled Certified product sales grew 42% in 2024, with dollar growth running at nearly 17% year-over-year in the natural channel as of early 2026. And it’s not just scrappy DTC startups selling spent-grain granola anymore. Del Monte certified all nine JOYBA Bubble Tea SKUs as upcycled last year. Misfits Market launched private-label bread made with ReGrained’s upcycled brewer’s grain flour.

There’s also a second layer worth noting. Upcycled ingredients (spent grain flour, fruit pulp, recovered whey protein) give brands a differentiation story that doesn’t require a health claim (or at least reinforces an existing one). The BFY lane is so crowded and so full of vacuous claims that “better for you” has essentially become table stakes rather than a moat in some categories. Upcycling offers a different kind of “better” that doesn’t need clinical substantiation or an FDA fight. It’s a provenance claim as innovation, and provenance claims are stickier than functional claims because they’re narrative, not data. You can argue with a nutrition panel but it’s more difficult to argue with “this grain was going to be thrown away and we saved it.”

All of this also helps me answer a problem that never sat right with me about upcycling: the pricing paradox. If the ingredients were previously waste (i.e., free), how can you convince a consumer to actually pay more for it? Well, if we accept that this is really conspicuous anti-consumption (badge branding, virtue frugality), then we see the market here isn’t a household that’s genuinely stretched. It’s the household that feels economically anxious but still has discretionary income. Upper-middle class, probably millennial or older Gen Z, probably already buying at Whole Foods or Sprouts. Economic anxiety for this cohort isn’t “I can’t afford groceries.” It’s “the world feels wasteful and chaotic, and my purchases should reflect that I’m smarter than the chaos.”

Which, if you’re a CPG brand, is actually useful information. It means this iteration of upcycling is a premium positioning strategy, and brands that lean into the “frugal chic” narrative will hold margin. The UFA’s own CEO said late last year: upcycled messaging will emphasize “efficiency and frugality” going forward. That’s a pivot from sustainability positioning.

The real question for the category is whether that premium positioning has a ceiling, or whether upcycled can eventually do what organic did and migrate from Whole Foods to Kroger without collapsing on itself.

Oats are Riding a Post-Functional Wave

The better-for-you world is starting to settle into two tracks. On one side you have the optimization trend, the “let’s stack creatine, protein, and electrolytes” in your coffee, bar or beverage crowd that is trying to build their ideal self. On the other side, you have what I’m starting to think of as the post-functional track. These are products built around ingredients that are genuinely good for you but don’t require you to learn anything new to believe in them: oats, honey, dates, bananas, peanut butter. Ingredients where the health story is already settled and stored in cultural memory rather than communicated through a label. Basically “lock and loaded” intuitive good, perfect for a world of increasingly suspicious claims and declining trust.

Oats are one of the clearest post-functional ingredients on the market right now. Universally trusted, zero consumer education required, and genuinely functional without needing to say so. Not surprisingly then, oats are showing up in new formats because brands are discovering that oats are a platform, not just a breakfast ingredient. The ingredient carries enough trust to anchor any format without justification.

What makes oats especially fascinating is that two very different types of companies are converging on them from opposite directions. Legacy oat brands like Quaker are trying to escape the breakfast bowl before it ages out. Whereas premium insurgent brands are reaching for an ingredient that lowers their explanation cost and broadens their audience. Both are landing on oats-as-format.

Oats succeed where other grains failed because they never needed a rehabilitation arc. Quinoa had to be introduced, ancient grains had to be explained, but oats just had to show up in a new shape.

And because oats are a commodity, there’s no proprietary lock on the ingredient itself. The barrier to entry is low, which means the real competition isn’t over access to oats it’s over format and occasion. Who owns oats-on-the-go? Who owns oats-as-snack? The ingredient is wide open, and the race right now is to claim the format before someone else does.

That’s what makes this moment different. The oat trend isn’t really a trend. Trends require adoption curves. Oats skip the curve entirely because the adoption happened generations ago. What’s new is that product developers finally stopped treating that familiarity as boring and started treating it as a strategic asset. The land grab isn’t so much for the ingredient, as its for making oats more legible in a believable, convenient way.

GUT REACTION

Products: Vaseline Pistachio Donut; Premier Protein Ultimate; BaBa Vietnamese Yogurt; Backflip Cereal ; Snackish

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Slowing Costco Sales Growth Unnerves Investors

PepsiCo earnings miss estimates as U.S. consumers tighten their budgets

General Mills agrees to sell Häagen-Dazs shops in China to investor group

Nestlé to Tweak Some Food Recipes to Appeal to Duller GLP-1 Palates

Nestlé Partners With Startup Helaina to Develop Infant Formula With Human Proteins

Pepsi® Global Launches Pepsi ‘House Of Treats’ A New Away From Home Experiential Beverage Platform

Dates are on track to be a $55B global powerhouse, up 33%

Frozen Yogurt Is Having a Renaissance, This Time at $30 a Bowl

Where Has All the Cottage Cheese Gone?

Hong Kong to debut first robot-run convenience store

Reddit has turned Wendy’s into a meme stock

A New Survey Reveals the Most Popular Cheese in the US — and It’s a Classic

Dozens hospitalized with cyclosporiasis as cases of gastrointestinal illness spike in 31 states

Campari fights Aperol copycats as rivals chase growing spritz market

Instacart EBT SNAP Payments Come to Caper Carts

Uncrustables says they are now ‘fridge friendly’

Interesting

Bath & Body Works’ Strategy to Win More Younger Consumers

What We Know About Weight-Loss Drugs Is Rapidly Changing

How Food Becomes American

Midjourney, the AI image generator, is developing a full-body ultrasonic scanner

Why is everyone suddenly obsessed with toxins?

Delta CEO Says Fliers Can Afford These Higher Fares

Square Introduces New ChatGPT and Claude Integrations

A tear-testing device could help monitor neurological disorders without needles or implants

Fun & Odd

Watch an $8000 home robot fold laundry

‘It was very very good’: Ötzi the Iceman’s body is covered in ancient yeast — and scientists just used it to make a sourdough

The AI coding agent that runs on stolen Chipotle compute

Here’s the Real Reason Why Butter Is Yellow

The 13 Wildest State Fair Foods Across America

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Protein Must Have a First Name Now

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 31 May 2026 21:58:30 GMT

In case you missed the last issue, you can find it here.

This week:

Protein Must have a First Name: The future is deeper

Flavor Fidelity Flip: Back to basics

Everything is a Hot Pocket Now: The pioneer’s struggle

Cleaning Up Your Product Isn’t Enough: Ingredients aren’t your problem

Gut Reaction: My quick thoughts on the newest launches

TidBits: The latest in F&B and business news

Products: Wilde Crackers; Elavi Brownies; Parm Bar; Prima Ancestral Protein Bar; David Wild Caught Atlantic Cod

Protein Must Have a First Name Now

Last week, DMI (dairy management inc.) started a campaign where they sent small blocks of Parmesan shaped like snack bars to food influencers. Basically saying: we’re as good as any protein bar. They are on to something. While protein mania hasn’t slowed down, the tenor is changing. Now it isn’t just ‘more protein’ its more protein from a source I trust.

Wilde has launched protein crackers, Prima protein bars, and Elavi launched protein brownies. None seem interesting until you find that those crackers are made with chicken breast, bone broth, and cheese proteins, the bars with beef collagen protein and the brownies with brown rice and almond protein. [David is being David and partially doing this by launching more fish, but then going with isolates in their signature bars; I guess theyre riding both sides of the wave].

We are not leaving the ‘proteinmaxxing’ phase yet, but we entering the nuanced bit. BTW, this is coming for fiber/prebiotics and other nutrients as well. When everyone can add commodity ingredients over the top, differentiation comes from distinction.

The Flavor Fidelity Flip

For the last few years now, I’ve been talking about the wave of high-intensity flavors taking over CPG and foodservice. We’ve been getting more extreme combos (all the horrible words like swicy, swangy, and swavory), as well as extreme textures and visual contrasts (see Nerds Gummy Clusters). Every trend eventually generates an anti-trend, I’m just surprised this one took so long.

OK, maybe “anti-trend” isn’t exactly right. This isn’t a move toward boring or bland food (actually quite the opposite). What I’m seeing is a move toward a different kind of complexity: complexity of the simple.

I think it started with single-origin. EVOO and spirits first, then coffee, now chocolate. Food influencers are having the revelation that the ‘ordinary’ can actually be extraordinary. Not extraordinary because it was covered in layers of melting cheese or punched up with chili crisp and yuzu, but because it was honestly delicious to begin with.

There’s a consumer psychology concept called the hedonic treadmill. Basically, it’s the idea that the more stimulus you get the more you need to feel satisfied. While at first the escalation of flavors and sensory hits feels good, eventually it just fatiguing. At some point, the fifth mashup flavor of your favorite potato chips stops registering as novel and instead starts registering as frustrating noise. The only way off the treadmill is a different path.

What’s happening now is a pivot from complexity-as-combination to complexity-as-depth. Think of it like audio. The intensity wave was turning up the volume and adding more base. The fidelity flip is upgrading from a cheap set of headphones to some high-end KEF speakers. Now you source enjoyment not from the volume but from the nuances you didn’t know were there.

You can see this popping up all over CPG. Hu Kitchen built a brand around “fewer ingredients, better chocolate.” Brightland made olive oil a gift-economy product by sourcing specific varietals from specific farms. Ithaca Hummus ran a whole identity around cold-crafted processing that preserved the actual taste of chickpeas. Now Crumbl, a brand that rose to fame on ridiculously overloaded, intense cookies, is celebrating their ‘perfection’ of chocolate chip and oatmeal raisin cookies. The common thread: the premium signal is shifting from “you’ve never tried this” to “you’ve never had one that tasted this good.”

Fidelity over novelty.

Sociologically, this maps to a broader consumer fatigue with performative consumption. The same group of people that got tired of the artifice of Instagram food are now suspicious of products that seem designed to be photographed rather than eaten. Basically, fidelity is starting to become a trust signal. It says the brand invested in the ingredient, not the gimmick. In a market where trust is eroding across every institution, a product that tastes transparently like what it claims to be is doing real work.

This resets the innovation playbook for a lot of categories. Fidelity rewards supply chain investment over marketing theatrics. It means the competitive moat is in sourcing, processing, and production control, not just in flavor labs. That’s a harder capability to build and a harder one to copy (which is exactly the point.)

Everything Is a Hot Pocket Now

If you grew up in the 70s, 80s or even 90s, you might remember a time when things like Hot Pockets, Bagel Bites or any other frozen carb snack you heated in a metalized sleeve in the microwave was both innovative and transgressive at the same time. You have to remember, the norm then was three square meals. Snacking wasn’t seen as it is positioned today (optimizing, fueling) but as a treat that would ruin the nutritional importance of the meal (“you’ll spoil your dinner!”).

Now we live in a snackified world, where eating a protein bar for breakfast isn’t seen as odd and assembling bits and bobs from the refrigerator and pantry (“girl/boy dinner”) is celebrated. Supermarkets and club stores today are full of frozen snacks and handhelds that feed millions for breakfast, lunch and dinner. So, in essence, everything is a Hot Pocket.

Which is tough if you are the folks at Hot Pocket (or Bagel Bites or Totino’s). The world has caught up with you, then it lapped you.

This is how it always goes for pioneers. A brand finds a solution for a consumer job that is so perfect that the market validates it by copying it. The pioneer, trying to stay ahead, starts innovating by adding new flavors and bolt-ons, but its dominance starts to slip. Once the solution goes mainstream, availability beats original authorship every time. “Good enough” satisfies the majority.

Chobani willed Greek yogurt into existence and watched Dannon, Fage and private label take the category from them. Olipop and Poppi are watching Coca-Cola and store brands do it right now with functional soda. The pioneer teaches the market a new behavior and the market says “thank you, we’ll take it from here.”

Christensen called this the innovator’s dilemma. The pioneer defends the middle of the market it created, adding features and formats to hold share, while the real growth migrates to the margins where nobody is looking. That means that the smart pioneer needs to do something counterintuitive: stop competing on the behavior you invented. Instead, look for the job at the margins that nobody else wants because it looks too small or too unglamorous to chase.

Hot Pockets is currently launching Snack Breaks (bite-size, tear-apart squares) and XL high-protein pockets in the same cycle. Stretching smaller and bigger simultaneously. You can feel them searching for the edges to find a foothold.

For Hot Pockets, I think slightly bigger is likely the answer and it’s a job that just opened up. A Hot Pocket costs about $2.50. A McDonald’s combo is pushing $14. Fast food has inflated past the point where its premium feels earned, and millions of people are getting priced out of QSR not because they want to cook but because the math stopped mathing. Those people still want hot, fast, requires-nothing-from-me food (and aren’t looking for health metrics). That sounds like a job Hot Pockets could do.

The lesson for every pioneer watching their category fill up with imitators: the next business isn’t a better version of the thing everyone copied from you. It’s the job at the edge that looks too small until it isn’t.

Cleaning Up Your Product Isn’t Enough

Last week, Nature’s Own bread company launched a campaign with John Cena aimed at ‘breaducating’ consumers about their new recipe that contains 38% less ingredients and is now Non-GMO Project Verified.

Every big CPG company is in the same process of reformulating and cleaning up their decks right now. I get it. When MAHA moms are in Walmart’s ear and state legislatures are banning ingredients by name, you move. At this point, its survival more than strategy.

However, I want to flag something that nobody in those meetings is saying because it feels wrong to: this probably won’t work.

The consumer anger at Red 40 and potassium bromate and sodium stearoyl lactylate is real. But it’s not really about those ingredients. Those are just the current punching bag for a feeling that’s been building for decades. The feeling is simple: these companies knew, and they didn’t care enough to clean up until someone made them. In a weird way, all this reformulating is confirming the consumer belief: “so you could have done this the whole time?”

Think of it like a relationship where one person keeps apologizing for specific behaviors but never addresses why the behaviors keep happening. I’ll stop doing this. Fine, I’ll stop doing that too. At some point the other person stops caring about the specific thing and starts caring about the pattern. The apologies become evidence of a deeper issue.

That’s where a lot of big food companies are now. Consumers aren’t tracking your ingredient removals on a scorecard, they’re watching the bigger picture. They’re watching whether you move because you believe something or because you got caught. And right now, everyone is moving at exactly the same speed in exactly the same direction, which is a pretty reliable signal that belief has nothing to do with it.

Clean label is table stakes, I’m not arguing against doing the work. Do it. But companies treating reformulation as a trust strategy are going to be confused when they strip every product down to things a third grader can pronounce and consumers still say they don’t trust you. Because the next complaint is already forming: your reformulated product is now too expensive (“see how greedy they are”), there is too much packaging (“they don’t care about the environment”), they use plastic in manufacturing (“they don’t care about my family’s health”). The target will shift because the target was never really the ingredient, it was the perceived intent (or lack thereof).

The companies that actually rebuild trust will be the ones that do something the industry almost never does: make a change before anyone asks. Aim higher than the competition. Take a hit to a margin before a retailer or a regulator forces it. That’s the only signal consumers can’t dismiss. Not because it’s noble but because it’s costly, and costly signals are the only ones that cut through skepticism.

Products: Alert Pop; Wicked Cutz Cinnabon Bacon Jerky; Cuca™ Herb Pops; SPAM dog;Be Spooned

TIDBITS

Food Industry

It’s not shameful, it’s savvy: The shoppers redefining how to save money on groceries

America faces another grocery-price shock

The climate crisis is coming for your groceries

Ferrero to revive Wonka candy brand with Netflix

Scientists Just Debunked Every Myth About Seed Oils—Here’s What They Found

Congress clutches to its junk food affinity despite MAHA pressure

Lay’s and Doritos maker to raise prices on small bags of chips

Some Japanese snack packages are turning black-and-white as Iran war depletes ink supply

Nelson Peltz Wants To Take Wendy’s Private Now

Jack Daniel’s Maker Brown-Forman Rejects $15 Billion Takeover Offer From Sazerac

Coca‑Cola Unveils Next-Gen Beverage Dispensing Technology

German court rules Milka chocolate bar weight cut misleading

The MAHA movement is coming to school cafeterias. Here’s what that means for kids

The eye-popping new contender for America’s most expensive grocery store

Beef Packer Margin Losses Mount

Dates double in sales as consumers move away from ultra-processed snacks

Chicken Salt Is the Australian Seasoning Your Fries Have Been Missing

Exclusive: Ferrero uses legacy brands to fuel mashups, growth

They’ve got fiber. They’re cheap. They’re … cool? Behind the ‘renaissance’ of beans

Pizza Hut franchisee says AI caused $100M in damages

Schlitz Is Gone, But First It’s Getting One Last Hurrah

A proposed additive ban could change New York’s pizza and bagels

Pizza Hut bringing back the ‘90s at “Classic” restaurants

Yum Said to Be in Exclusive Talks to Sell Pizza Hut to LongRange

Interesting

DipDetect is an allergen test strip startup

Oura is launching its smallest smart ring yet, shrinking wearable design by 40%

Two people can absorb different calories from the same meal

Corporate America Is Starting to Ration AI as Cost Skyrockets

Which companies have the best and worst reputations, according to Americans?

An AI hate wave is here

Even mild blows to the head disrupt the microbiome

51% of U.S. employees have cried at the office within the last month, according to a new report

The Founding Story Behind Japan’s Oldest Whisky Maker

Amazon’s ultrafast 30-minute deliveries are now available in more cities

Are US adults having enough fun?

The ChatGPT-ification of American Business

The Unsavory Side of FoodTok

AI hasn’t overtaken human writers online

Figure AI’s robot achieves 8-hour shift milestone in warehouse test

Wholesale inflation jumps 6% in April on annual basis, biggest increase since 2022

I Want to Live Like Costco People

Companies Have a New AI Problem: Too Many Agents

Why the US population boom became a bust

Fun & Odd

Watch hungry Brewers fans test AmFam Field’s carry-in spaghetti policy

Is Costco Rotisserie Chicken still $4.99?

It’s That Time of the Year Again: The Cooper’s Hill Cheese Rolling competition

The 50 Best Pizzerias in America for 2026, Ranked

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Quick Bite:The GLP-1 Consumer Doesn't Exist

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 10 May 2026 21:27:35 GMT

Announcement: A few weeks ago I published a regular edition and a special edition. The response was overwhelming and informative. What I heard from many of you is that you really liked the split.
Therefore, FoodStuff is changing. Going forward I’ll be publishing two different types of posts through a month: Quick Bites and Deep Cut. Quick Bites, like the current issue, are posts covering the latest launches with bite-sized commentary. Deep Cut will cover one or two topics in great depth. Something for everyone (and don’t worry, this not a step toward paywalling)!
Thank you to everyone that reached out. If you are enjoying FoodStuff, please share with with others.

In today’s FoodStuff Quick Bites:

The GLP-1 Consumer Is there really A person?

Quick Bites

Signals from the Shelf: Early indications of what’s coming next

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Products: The Gym Kitchen Nutrient Packed Range; Protein One GLP-1 Friendly; Propel Clear Protein; BoJangle’s Chicken Rippers; Fancypants Coconut Chocolate Chip cookies

The GLP-1 Consumer Doesn’t Exist

Everyone in CPG is designing for “the GLP-1 consumer” as if it were a coherent segment (I’ve seen this in Plans decks and in Demand Space segment filters). Smaller portions, nutrient-dense, high-protein, and super functional products. But in all my experience, this doesn’t reflect reality. Don’t get me wrong, these are the right types of products for people on the drugs, but the actual GLP-1 population is wildly heterogeneous, especially with the advent of the low-cost pill. Some of these folks are on it for six months and cycle off. Some are on low doses for years. Some are taking it and still eating cookies or fast food (just mini-versions, see above). The cycling behavior alone makes “the GLP-1 consumer” a terrible ‘segment’ to design around, because their needs shift every few months.

What CPG is actually seeing isn’t one new consumer segment but a new volatility pattern in existing segments. The person who bought your protein bar last quarter might not need it this quarter because they cycled off and their appetite is back to normal. Yes, some portion habits stick post-cycling, so smaller and more portable designs make sense, but building a SKU strategy around behavioral residue from a drug people take intermittently is a hard bet. Plus the early data on weight regain after stopping the drug suggests most physiological effects don’t stick the way the optimists hope.

All of which is to say, the “GLP-1 consumer” is feeling less like a trend to design for and more like an intermittent demand signal. I’m not saying GLP-1 doesn’t reshape the market. Some consumers will be on these drugs for life, and the portion and density expectations they normalize will bleed into how non-users eat too. But that’s a gradual cultural shift, not ONE segment you can target with a SKU launch next quarter. I’m increasingly thinking the smarter play is portfolio flexibility first, segment targeting second (with SKU development mixed in). But that’s a harder story to sell internally.

The New Baby Gap

Infant food companies have a captured audience. Parents pick the brand because of its ingredients, convenience and child acceptance, but once the kid hits a particular age, they usually graduate into eating what the household eats. That’s great for the family (we all eat from one communal pantry) but bad for baby food makers.

However, there is a change happening. The MAHA movement has come to center a lot on kids, questioning the ingredients and processing of kid-directed foods, especially snacks. What I’m seeing: this is ‘widening the window’ for parents in their search for ‘cleaner food’ well into the toddler years and beyond. Whereas previously a 5-6 year old would have ‘graduated’ to Doritos (just like the rest of the house), today there is stigma. Enter brands like you see at above (and many others). It makes sense that companies like Once Upon a Farm (that are trusted to make baby foods) are aging up their offerings in-line with parents’ growing anxiety. The question is, will large snack makers find a way clean up their decks in a trustworthy way and fight back?

Products: Bittman’s Frozen Sourdough; White Lily Frozen Biscuits

Why Baking from the Freezer is so NOW

Do you know what the fastest growing frozen category is? Cookie dough. I know it was surprising to me too. However, frozen seems to be having a moment when it comes to baked goods in general. See White Lily frozen biscuits or Bittman’s (as in Mark Bittman’s) new frozen sourdough bread company. I see this as a convergence of several forces: (1) more people either living alone, or the family doesn’t eat together, so frozen allows you to bake just what you need; (2) less waste, even though these may be pricier options you end up throwing away less than if you bought a Costco tray; (3) the rise of cooking appliances like air fryers that make baking one biscuit or one cookie realistic (and fresher; again a ding against RTE); (4) the increased respect for frozen food quality. Previously seen as the dregs of packaged food, frozen’s cred has risen (thanks to technology and retailers like Trader Joes). Net-net: I think we’ll be seeing a lot more frozen bakery shortcuts (a lot borrowed from the playbook of foodservice companies) in the very near future.

Products: Mitra9; Slice Dirty Soda; Arma

Carbonated Supplements?

Olipop and Poppi did something genuinely hard: they convinced people who had mostly abandoned a category to come back to it. Soda was verboten then prebiotics provided the permission slip. A little fiber, a better-for-you story, and suddenly soda creeped back into the fridge. Now a whole raft of new functional soda entrants are hitting the market, but they aren’t using the functional ingredient as an innocuous add-on, they’re making it increasingly the reason to buy.

Postbiotics, colostrum and mitragynine (the active compound in kratom, yeah the c-store stuff) are now showing up in sodas . I’m not sure about you, but these are increasingly feeling less like sodas and more like carbonated supplements. I’ll be interested to see if consumers go along with this when the actual dose becomes something you need to pay attention to.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Bettergoods Tuna and Trout; Island Way Lemonade Bites; Fruit Riot Sunny D Mango; TruFru Greek Yogurt; David Cinnamon Roll bar; Barebells Banana Bread Bar

GUT REACTION

Products: Oroweat Fiber Power;OceanSpray Fireworks Cranberry Mix; Bisquick Cinnamon Toast Crunch; Little Latke potato crisps.

Food Industry

Amazon launches GLP-1 weight loss program, promising ‘fast, convenient’ access

Chicken is winning the protein wars

Starbucks cuts tech jobs as new CTO reshapes organization

150 Million Americans Feel Dehydrated*. Gatorade Aims to Change How People Think About Hydration

NYC Mayor Mamdani Announces La Marqueta as First Site Identified for City’s Public Grocery Stores

Palantir inks $300 million deal with USDA to safeguard food supply

Walmart trials in-store warehousing for faster e-commerce fulfilment – report

Should We Finally Ditch Artificial Sweeteners for Good?

Ajinomoto Creates New Tech to Replace One of Cultivated Meat’s Most Expensive Components

“Ozempic breath“ is boosting Hershey’s sales of mints and gum

Diet Coke shortage?

Protein powder shortage?

Ube shortage?

Food Industry Sees a Threat in Kennedy’s Push to Define ‘Ultraprocessed’ Food

Why Beef Prices Continue to Stay So High

Food manufacturer Cento is committing “tomato fraud,” lawsuit alleges

Dunkin’ owner Inspire Brands confidentially files for IPO

Interesting

Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook

P&G warns of $1 billion profit hit in fiscal 2027 from higher oil prices

Maryland is moving to ban companies like Walmart and Kroger from ‘surveillance pricing’ — what it is and how to avoid it

Meet the MAHA Moms Protesting Against Pesticides

Oil in everyday things: How the Iran war is driving up the cost of your shopping cart

80% of CEOs worry their job is at risk if AI fails this year, survey shows

Companies Are Getting Tariff Refunds. Here’s What They Plan to Do With the Money.

Why HRV Is the New Longevity Obsession

Fun & Odd

Why millennials are feral for chicken Caesar wraps

The science of hosting the perfect dinner party

Wall Street’s Elite Team of Coffee Tasters Who Keep the Global Market Running

Stolen French fries taste better, according to science

It’s the Most Beautiful Taco Bell in the World. Here’s Why It Could Never Be Built Today

Starting May 1, teahouses in China must now disclose if dumplings are made by machines

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SPECIAL EDITION: Condiments are the New Cereal Aisle

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 21:49:19 GMT

Remember when you still subscribed to print magazines and one day you’d go to your mailbox and find your normal issue was twice its usual size? It would be wrapped in a flimsy plastic bag and contain an extra mini-edition (for some reason glued to the bigger one with that magazine mucus) and you’d think, wow a bonus issue!

Well, think of this as a bonus issue of FoodStuff.

When I first started writing this, I thought it would just be the tentpole for my normal newsletter. However I quickly realized: (1) it was going to be too long; (2) cutting it down would dilute my points; and (3) I still felt it was worth publishing. Therefore: special edition. ENJOY!

Products: Kikkoman ‘Unleash Legendary’ campaign’; Hidden Valley Ranch Yum Yum Sauce and Ranch with Avocado Oil; Rebeko Zero; Tabanero BBQ sauces; Arriba Mexican Barbecue Sauce; McCormick x Mission BBQ; Domino’s Slice Sauce; Hot Ones BBQ Sauce; Truff Aioli & Dipping Sauces; Marzetti Protein Ranch dressing and dips

Two weeks ago, McCormick announced they would acquire most of Unilever’s food business in a $44.8B deal. That’s a lot of money to pay for mayo and Marmite, but it makes sense once you notice what’s been happening in the category. There’s been an unusual surge of interest in sauces and dips over the last five years, and McCormick is betting that surge has a long runway.

I think they’re right, the surge is real. The only question I have is about the runway. Is it shorter than the price tag assumes?

The reason I think that is because condiments are running a playbook we’ve seen before. The category is starting to look a lot like the cereal aisle did in its Golden Age (1950-1990), and if that parallel holds, McCormick could reap billions. However, that’s assuming history will run at the same rate and the factors that took down cereal can be held at bay.

I’m getting ahead of myself. Let me start by making my case for why the cereal and condiment categories are so similar:

Both are the result of societal changes affecting the household: Cereal and condiments are both products of households coming apart. Cereal rose when industrialization pulled women into the workforce and killed the cooked breakfast; ready-to-eat filled the vacuum. Condiments are riding the same kind of rupture now. Single-person households, an aging population, and asynchronous schedules mean we’re eating alone, fast, and often without the time or skill to cook. Condiments do the work the cook used to do. They make a frozen entrée interesting, turn a sad desk sandwich into something, and rescue takeout from its third reheat. The category isn’t growing because people suddenly love hot sauce, it’s growing because the meal around it got smaller, lonelier, and more functional.

Both deskill a labor-intensive task and make a cheap meal feel intentional: Cereal’s early value prop leaned hard on cost, speed, and ease: transforming commodity grains into a premium. Condiments run the same play at the dinner table. They allow the underlying meal (again a simple commodity like plain chicken breast, a bowl of rice, or a fried egg) to punch above its weight in both flavor and perceived effort. Fly By Jing on rice isn’t a poverty meal, it’s a quick restaurant-level experience made possible via an upfront investment.

Health anxiety is the permission structure: Kellogg didn’t build Battle Creek on freshness seals. He built it on the health panics of his era: indigestion, nervous exhaustion, and malnutrition. Cereal was medicine first, breakfast second. The category rode genuine consumer fear into being a permanent part of the pantry. Condiments have been around forever and didn’t start as a health food, but one of the key differentiators driving their current growth is an identical play on today’s wellness anxieties. “No seed oil” ranch and high protein ketchup is ‘convenient wellness’ all over again, and it’s being accelerated by the MAHA vector.

Flavor novelty as growth engine: Health may have been the original permission for cereal but its growth came from flavor variety. Imagine a grocery store that only had oatmeal and cornmeal, then insert Froot Loops, Cocoa Puffs, and Cap’n Crunch. People must have lost their minds! Condiments are in that same expansionary moment now. Gochujang, salsa macha, yuzu kosho, and hot honey are currently convincing people that they need to make more room in their fridge doors and expand beyond ketchup and mayo.

Character IP justifies the premium: Cereal did it with mascots: Tony the Tiger, Lucky the Leprechaun, and Toucan Sam. A face on the box pushed kids to beg, confident they were getting the real deal. Today condiments do it for adults with founders and restaurants equities: David Chang, Jing Gao, Mike Kurtz, and BW3.

As Mark Twain said, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.” Condiments may not exactly match the rise of the cereal aisle, but I think there are enough similarities to be informative in terms of what might be next.

If the condiment category is entering its Golden Age, it may be useful to look quickly at cereal’s arc and see where our friends at McCormick and Kraft-Heinz need to be careful.

Cereal’s Arc, Condiments Future?

Here is cereal’s history:

Consolidation (1945-1960): Three players ended up controlling the category. Kellogg, General Mills, Post. Smaller players got bought or pushed out. Technical and equity IP and retail relationship kept the moat in place.

Extraction (1960-1985): The players spent more than two decades turning puffed grains into empires. Mascots, Saturday morning TV, and pricing power were able to extract a 60% gross margin on corn and oats. The Baby Boomer generation, and the changing morning routine, were an incredible engine.

Defense(1985-2010): Private label showed up in a big way. They were there almost from the beginning but by the late-90s Kroger and Walmart (later Trader Joes and Whole Foods) started to chip away share from the Big 3. Copycats started offering giant bags and novel offerings, but the majors held on through line extensions, celebrity boxes, and heritage nostalgia.

Collapse (2010-present): This came in three rapid punches. The first was the health halo cracking. Cereal had spent decades positioning itself as fortified and essential (“part of a nutritious breakfast”). Then, low carb /high protein diets reframed the entire category’s nutritional premise. A bowl of Frosted Flakes stopped being breakfast and started being viewed as just sugar. This severely hindered marketing to kids and opened the door to startups that offered a ‘cleaner’ product (see Magic Spoon). The second punch was the push to the perimeter. As people retreated from the cereal bowl, they explored chilled offerings and found high protein yogurt, eggs, smoothies. Finally, there was the general fragmenting of the AM due to lifestyle needs. Breakfast stopped being a sit-down occasion and became a series of portable snacks eaten throughout the morning (a format that cereal had a difficult time structurally entering).

Condiments are in Consolidation right now. The Kraft-Heinz moves and the McCormick-Unilever deal look exactly like a forming oligopoly. But modern categories don’t get 25-year Extraction windows. They get five to ten. The same forces that took cereal down are coming for condiments, and they’re coming faster.

One note on the players. Cereal’s Big Three was settled by 1960. Condiments aren’t there yet. McCormick and Kraft-Heinz are the obvious top two. The third slot is wide open, and Conagra is the most interesting contender. The market has largely written them off across frozen and shelf-stable, but they’re sitting on Hunt’s, Gulden’s, and La Choy. That’s a genuine condiment war chest hiding inside a company trading like it’s already lost. If Conagra’s leadership reads the same tea leaves McCormick just did, a condiment pivot is the highest-upside move on their board.

Where Condiments Can Win

If you’re sitting inside McCormick or Kraft-Heinz right now, cereal’s playbook tells you where the money is for the next decade.

Acquire earlier and faster: Cereal’s Big Three had decades to consolidate because the barriers to entry were enormous. You needed twin-screw extruders, tech expertise, national TV, and shelf relationships. Condiments have none of that. A co-packer and a TikTok account gets you into Whole Foods in eighteen months. That means the majors can’t wait for a challenger brand to prove itself at $80M in revenue. The new M&A math is buying at ~$15M and absorbing the loss on the ones that don’t pan out. Treat it like a VC portfolio, not a corp dev pipeline.

Use foodservice as the flavor R&D engine: This is where condiments have an asset cereal never really did. Restaurants are doing the consumer education for you. Gochujang, hot honey, and chili crisp all hit grocery after years of chefs (and food media) teaching diners what they taste like. The brands that win are the ones fast following from restaurants or treating foodservice placement as a discovery funnel for retail, not a separate business unit.

Own the occasion, not the jar: Cereal didn’t win by being cereal, it won by owning breakfast. Condiments need to stop marketing the SKU and start owning the weeknight dinner rescue, the sad desk lunch, or the quick Tuesday meal prep. Fly By Jing isn’t competing with chili crisp, it’s competition with a more exciting dinner.

Turn founders into mascots while you can: Tony the Tiger worked because kids trusted a face. David Chang, Molly Baz and Chick-fil-A work because adults trust a palate and personality or want to replicate an experience. These equities are transferable but more fragile and volatile than a cartoon toucan. Brands must protect founder stories post-acquisition to avoid flattening them into generic premium.

Move with the cultural change. GLP-1 should supercharge condiments. Smaller portions mean every bite has to work harder, which is exactly what condiments do. The GLP-1 user can’t finish a plate of pasta, but they are eating three ounces of chicken that needs to taste like something. Hot honey, a serious mustard, or a good BBQ sauce turn a protein portion into a meal worth sitting down for. The category should be building for this consumer now: smaller formats, higher flavor density, protein-forward pairing cues on pack, and sodium and sugar profiles that don’t undo the drug.

Where Condiments Could Falter

Cereal’s collapse came from three punches. Condiments should assume all three are coming, plus three structural problems cereal never had.

The health halo could crack: Hot honey is sugar. Chili crisp is oil and sodium. Just about all condiments (especially the fortified ones) are ultra-processed. The category is riding wellness framing that is tenuous and changing at the speed of TikTok. ‘No seed oils’ may fade by next summer, only to be replaced by something condiments can’t do well. Cereal had decades before “it’s just sugar” stuck. Condiments might get two years.

Private label is already inside the gate: Trader Joe’s chili onion crunch beat Fly By Jing to a lot of households. Aldi, Costco, and Trader Joe’s move faster on condiments than they ever did on cereal because the supply chain is simpler and the consumer has less brand loyalty on a $7 jar than on a $5 box they grew up with.

The occasion fragments: Condiments are riding the fractured household, but that same fracture may kill the category if it doesn’t stay current. The winners will be the brands that solve for single-serve, portability, and the lunchbox, not the ones still selling 12oz glass jars built for a family of four that doesn’t eat together anymore.

Velocity is weaker, lower habit: A jar of chili crunch lasts four months, whereas a box of cereal lasted a week. Dollar velocity per shelf-inch looks fine because unit price climbed, but low repurchase means weaker habit formation. Can you build a Tony the Tiger relationship with a consumer who interacts with your brand only three times a year?

Barriers to entry are gone: Cereal is not something you can whip up in your garage, you need serious tech. Condiments need a big pot, some jars, a farmer’s market and a TikTok account. The flood of new entrants is effectively infinite, which only works as long as the majors keep buying. The moment acquisition multiples compress, the whole structure wobbles. The big guys need more moats!

The media cycle is much shorter: Saturday morning cartoons built thirty-year brands. TikTok builds eighteen-month brands. That’s fine for a harvester model where you’re buying proven challengers. It’s not fine if you’re trying to build the next Heinz from scratch inside a legacy company.

Condiments are running cereal’s arc at triple speed. Consolidation is happening now, and it will look impressive for a few years, but the Extraction window won’t be 25 years (more like five, maybe ten). The challengers are infinite, the consumer moves on faster than any generation ever moved on cereal, and the founder equities propping up the premium are more fragile than any cartoon mascot ever was.

McCormick didn’t buy wrong. They bought at 1990s multiples for a 2020s timeline. The question isn’t whether condiments are entering their new Golden Age (they are) but whether the Extraction phase can be propped open long enough to justify the price tag.

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Big CPG Lost Men. Now It's Paying to Get Them Back.

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 21:47:19 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Safe No More? Is premium a save haven from private label creep?

CPG Lost Men: How legacy CPG lost the plot on men and is paying the penalty

Signals from the Shelf: Early indications of what’s coming next

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

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Products: Rich’s Bailey’s Ice Cream Cake; Trader Joes Whipped Carrot Cake Cream Cheese Spread; Trader Joes Canneles; Trader Joes Yellow Curry Potato Chips; bettergoods Chicken Wings with Spicy Dill Dry Rub;; Kirkland Sparkling Energy Drink; Aldi Prawn & White Wine Salmon Wellington; Trader Joes Mini Uncured Salami Sticks; PepsiCo launches new snack brand Good Warrior.

Is Premium Really the Safe Haven CPG Thinks It Is?

Premium has been CPG’s fallback strategy against private label growth for twenty years. When store brands first made moves beyond generic, brand execs convinced their boards that moving upmarket was the best defense. When commodity pressure hit or retailers squeezed margins, once again: ‘let’s go premium.’ The logic has always been private label can’t authentically follow us upscale.

That argument is starting to fall apart.

Private label just hit all-time high dollar sales in the U.S. Before you console yourself thinking this is just value shoppers defecting (there is definitely that), the data shows that premium and functional private label is growing too. Walmart, Costco, Trader Joe’s, and Target have spent years building store brands that don’t look or feel like cheap substitutes. Why should they? They’re often using the same co-packers and supply chains as the national brands. That’s allowed retailers to aim not just for parity but superiority.

The Erosion of the Quality Moat

The ability to pull off “premium” has always rested on two things: quality and identity. Quality is the product itself (i.e., better ingredients, better taste, and more consistent execution). Identity is what the product says about you. That warm fuzzy feeling that “this brand means something, says something about me.” Identity was always considered the real moat.

It was true in 2008 (I remember having conversations with brand-loyal consumers during the Great Recession). It’s less true now, for two reasons.

Quality is no longer a moat, it’s an entry fee. The structural shift that CPG hasn’t fully reckoned with is that the expertise left (see the massive layoffs of the 2010s). Food scientists, sensory specialists, packaging folks ( the people who used to sit inside big CPG companies with good pensions) are now consultants, co-packer staff, or running their own shops. The institutional knowledge that made a product genuinely better than what a retailer could source is largely available to anyone who can write a check. When Consumer Reports ran blind taste tests in 2025, store brand products won or matched national brands across almost all categories tested. The quality story isn’t gone (see How ‘Can CPG Still Win?’ below), but it’s no longer something that’s easy to own. It’s something you have to keep re-earning, at scale, against competitors who aren’t carrying your overhead.

The Identity Migration

Second, and this is the part CPG is not taking seriously enough: the identity signal has migrated. Legacy brand identity was “I’m the kind of person who buys this brand.” That worked when brand was the most culturally legible thing in the category. But retailer identity has overtaken it. Costco/Kirkland shoppers don’t buy store brand because it’s cheaper, they love to brag about it! (see Costco tattoos) Their identity is: I’m a smart enough shopper to know that Kirkland is just as good or better. Trader Joe’s sells the same thing (and Erewhon sells an even more expensive version of that!). What if you say '“we’re organic, we capture the elusive values-based consumer identity,” well I have news for you, Kroger is now the largest natural and organic brand in the country. In each case, the retailer owns the emotional relationship, and the manufacturer is providing a product that fits the context.

My brand friends hate when I say this, but a lot of the people still paying premiums for legacy brand names aren’t doing it because of loyalty. They’re doing it because of inertia.

If a shopper finally notices the price gap and trials the store brand, they’re increasingly realizing there is no functional quality difference. At that point, the only thing keeping the national brand in the cart is a vague psychological uneasiness about abandoning familiar colors or a mascot. For many consumers, that spell is being broken category by category and trip after trip as grocery bills climb. Once that trial happens, the national brand doesn’t come back.

CPG’s response has been to rent relevance from outside. Celebrity collabs, influencer partnerships, movie and TV tie-ins. If your own brand name isn’t generating enough cultural signal, borrow someone else’s. The problem is you can’t rent identity. What usually happens is the manufacturer’s brand becomes the less relevant half of a co-brand ( basically, the uncool kid hanging around the cool kid to get into the party). The power dynamic is inverted, the influencer is the brand and the CPG product is the delivery mechanism. When the contract ends, the brand is left with a depleted marketing budget and a consumer relationship it never actually owned. To capture that attention again, it needs a new host with even more relevance and repeats the cycle (That’s not brand building, its more akin to parasitic marketing!)

[KEVIN’S ASIDE. However, here’s a thought I’ve played with: what if CPG giants aren’t losing the identity battle, but deliberately exiting it? What if they are pivoting from being beloved cultural icons to a “Brand-as-a-Service” (BaaS) model, essentially renting out their invisible infrastructure to the highest bidder? A CPG operating like this stops trying to own the consumer’s heart and starts monetizing its scaled manufacturing, formulation depth, and regulatory expertise as a service for others to use. It’s a defensible business model, but one with fundamentally different economics and margins. I suspect some legacy players are already doing this while convincing themselves it’s just a “side business” to keep the lights on. These companies need to make a choice: are you in the BaaS business or are you actually building a brand? You can’t chase both strategies at the same time and expect to win at either.]

How Can CPG Still Win?

For companies that still want to be brands, the path is harder and more specific. My advice to clients: the only durable premium is a real thing (a process, a formulation, a proprietary ingredient) that a retailer cannot simply order from the same supplier. Most CPG brands don’t have that anymore, or they sold it off in a margin improvement exercise that made the last five quarters look better and the next decade look worse.

The identity signal is harder to call. I don’t think it’s gone permanently. There are brands (not many) that still generate genuine consumer attachment that resists price comparison shopping. What they share isn’t nostalgia or ad spend, but a consistent, specific point of view that accumulates meaning over time. It requires treating brand identity as an asset worth investing in rather than a line item to optimize, and most CPG P&Ls aren’t set up to reward that kind of patience.

Big CPG Lost Men. Now It’s Paying to Get Them Back.

Over the last six months, I’ve given dozens of keynotes and sat in front of a lot of boards and investors. After the usual questions about GLP-1 and the economy, I’ve noticed I always get a lot of questions about: AG1, RFK Jr. and Chinese gray market peptides, and even boy kibble. The specific questions are different every time, but the underlying subject is always the same: men and health. Specifically, how is big CPG playing in this space.

Then last week the corporate activity caught up to the conversation. Danone announced a $1.2 billion acquisition of Huel and Ferrero said it’s buying Bold Snacks, the Brazilian equivalent of Ghost, which General Mills continues to deepen its partnership with (new products just came out). That’s three smart moves in a week.

I think the penny has dropped. CPG spent twenty years building a health and wellness system and largely left men out of it, and by the time anyone noticed, a startup ecosystem had grown up in the gap, threatening to take half the consumer population with it. Here’s how I think that happened, why it’s coming to a head now, and what brands actually need to do about it.

How We Got Here

Women have historically driven household food purchasing decisions, that’s just a fact. While, for most of the 20th century, women were left out of a lot of health research, today they are more present in the health conversation, more vocal around wellness, and just more legible to the system. So, the system optimized for them. Rational? Yes. Wise? Maybe not.

We also have to acknowledge the broader backdrop of the 2010s. A lot of the traditional anchors of male identity were in flux (and still are): employment instability, shifting household economics, and a cultural conversation (or lack of one) about masculinity itself. Then the manosphere arrived and found a voice, and an opening, to commoditize solutions, just like any fringe movement finds a gap left by institutions that stopped paying attention.

AG1, Hims, and all the other brands you likely associate with a Joe Rogan podcast figured out how to speak to men in the right voice. They talked about outputs not inputs, performance not wellness, and focused on tribe not community. Then they used blunt copy, utilitarian packaging, and influencer ecosystems built around lifting, sports, and military aesthetics rather than yoga, farmers markets, and beauty to package the whole thing up.

What’s Happening Now

This wave of sudden acquisitions and partnerships is CPG admitting, with real balance sheet consequences, that it got the anthropology wrong.

Buying Bold or Huel isn’t primarily a protein play. These fitness brands have built genuine communities of men who trust them, buy repeatedly, and would notice immediately if the product or tone of voice changed. That kind of trust takes years and can’t be reverse-engineered in an innovation lab, which is why you buy it instead.

Will some of these acquisitions get portfolio-managed to death? Probably, and not for the reasons most people assume. The standard CPG acquisition failure mode is SKU rationalization, margin pressure watering down quality, and founder departure. Those happen a lot. But there’s a subtler kill mechanism that doesn’t get talked about enough: the de-risking of the voice.

These brands didn’t win just on protein content or the functional stack alone. They won on permission, the sense that they could say things mainstream CPG can’t. Some of that permission is just directness and utilitarian aesthetics. Some of it sits further along a spectrum that runs from bawdy humor and frankness about steroids through vague chauvinism to, at the very far end, content that would end a CMO’s career (see Clavicular, the Liver King and Andrew Tate). The brands that rose to the top mostly stayed out of the ugly end of that spectrum, but the edge itself (the sense that this brand hasn’t been sanitized and still sounds authentic) is part of what some men are buying.

That’s the classic acquisition trap. Once legal reviews the copy, once brand safety guidelines apply, once the voice has to clear a global comms team, the thing that made men trust the brand gets smoothed out until it’s just dark packaging on a product that sounds like everything else.

So, the question isn’t only whether CPG can keep the founder involved or resist messing with the formula, it’s whether a public company with a global reputation can steward a brand whose value is partly built on saying things the acquiring company never could. Most won’t solve that. Some will get lucky. A few might actually figure it out. [Case in point: Onnit, the Joe Rogan-backed supplement company bought by Unilever in 2021. While the founder moved on and the tech stack migrated, Unilever seems to have avoided “corporate organ rejection” by tucking the brand into its disruptive Health & Wellbeing unit. By providing retail air cover while keeping the core brand voice uncomfortably authentic, Unilever has turned Onnit into a cornerstone of a division that is now consistently outgrowing the rest of the portfolio. Though its difficult to see the real numbers, so who knows!]

Where It Goes From Here

More acquisitions, almost certainly. Brands that have genuinely cracked male consumer trust in food/bev and health are rare assets and big companies will be anxious to buy in before the multiples get worse. Brands on my watch list for acquisition (ignoring unicorn-sized, AG-1 brands; also this not a complete list, please don’t @me):

David: The gold-wrapper protein bar company with proprietary fat technology (currently being sued over calorie counts, but likely to prevail).

Ka’Chava: The “everything-but-the-kitchen-sink” (in a good way) superfood shake that has successfully turned expensive meal replacement powders into a high-end lifestyle ritual.

Momentous: The elite supplement brand that won over the pro-sports and biohacker crowd by basically becoming the official pharmacy of the Huberman/Schwarzenegger performance set.

Ketone-IQ (H.V.M.N.): High-tech “brain fuel” in a shot glass that lets you skip the keto diet while still getting the metabolic focus of a starving caveman.

Equip Foods: The rustic, “real food” protein play that uses beef instead of whey to win over the paleo and carnivore-adjacent guys who are tired of synthetic fillers.

Ready: An athlete-owned (Aaron Donald/Giannis) protein powerhouse that’s rapidly taking over mainstream retail shelves with clean-label snacks and sports drinks.

Warrior: The UK’s hyper-aggressive “gym-bro” snack brand that’s currently crushing retail with its “Crunch” bars and a very unapologetic, high-intensity aesthetic.

Brite: They migrated a bit from the all-male aesthetic but this brand offers a “smart” nootropic drink that uses matcha and L-theanine to give you a productivity boost without the coffee jitters or the energy-drink crash.

Jocko Fuel: The Navy SEAL-born empire of “clean energy” and protein.

Throne Sport Coffee: Patrick Mahomes’ performance-coffee brand that essentially upgrades your morning cold brew by adding electrolytes and protein.

But the harder and more important question is whether any legacy CPG company can build this relationship organically, not buy it, but build it (because the list above will shrink fast).

The instinct will be to launch a men’s line extension. Slap some dark packaging on an existing product, brief the agency on functional performance messaging, and call it innovation. Of course, that won’t work. The brands that won men over didn’t do it by gendering an existing product, they built something from scratch that spoke to a specific consumer in a specific voice about a specific set of needs. The voice came first (often via a podcast, Instagram or TikTok channel), then the product. Plus, its about talking to these men differently, less about wellness and more about optimization.

The bigger opportunity, though, isn’t just men’s health, it’s men in general. The blind spot that let AG1 and Huel walk through the door wasn’t really about green powders or protein. It was about an entire consumer population that CPG had stopped trying to understand on their own terms. Health was just where the gap was most visible because wellness had become so explicitly feminized in its language and aesthetics for a specific group of men.

Think about how men actually navigate the grocery store, what drives their brand loyalty, how they make decisions about what to feed themselves when no one else is involved (see again ‘boy kibble’ or Huel). Solo eating occasions are rising, household composition is shifting, and more men are cooking for themselves more often. These are structural changes, not trends. CPG needs to talk to these guys!

The company that figures out how to talk to men well across the portfolio (not just in the protein aisle) is sitting on a genuine growth opportunity.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: KFC Canada Chili Crunch Menu; Mochi Foods Brownie Mix; Datefix; Brownie Batter Floura; Meiji Frubi; Samanco; Aiko Fruit Bucket

GUT REACTION

Products: Meaties cereal; Miley Cyrus Diet Coke and Panda Express; Pure Kick Alkaline Water packets; M&S Dippy Egg Cookie Cup; Korean Bros

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Kraft Heinz shares tumble as investor uncertainty grows

In California, the war on ultraprocessed foods moves to the supermarket

The corporate breakup specialist who stopped the split of Kraft Heinz

Iran war deprives US farmers of affordable fertilizer as spring planting looms

Unilever in Talks to Separate Food Business and Combine It With McCormick

After funding collapse, what’s next for food startups?

Senate Democrats push to ‘break up’ the meat industry

Peet’s Coffee Partners with SoundHound AI to Power In-Store Employee Support Across Its Nationwide U.S. Retail Footprint

Instacart: Reinventing Retail with Physical AI

Steak prices are changing how Americans eat — in a big way

KKR Strikes Deal for Nothing Bundt Cakes

Amazon acquires Rivr, maker of a stair-climbing delivery robot

Cargill uses AI to get more meat from the bone as beef prices soar

Five Guys replaces fry cups with paper bags. Here’s the consensus.

The seafood industry bets Americans will finally eat more fish if it looks more like meat

Wikifarmer raises €7.1 million to evolve from “Wikipedia of Farming” into an “operating system for agricultural trade”

Interesting

Workers who fall for ‘corporate BS’ may be worse at their jobs, study finds

Major outgoing CEOs are citing AI as a factor in their decisions to step down

Gulping Down the Gains: The protein arms race has moved on from traditional shakes to ever-weirder drinks

James Talarico’s “no meat” controversy explains a lot about America

Body Scrub, Concealer and Shoe Trinkets Star in Brands’ ‘Microdramas’

Much ado about protein

Meet your company’s new HR reps: AI agents

Walmart digital price labels are coming to every store shelf in U.S. by end of 2026

Can you trust calorie counts on food labels? What the nutrition scientists say

This Surprising Snack Is Actually A Big Contributor To Cavities In Kids And Adults

Weight-loss treatment is on the verge of a dramatic shift – again

What does a ‘GLP-1 Friendly’ diet look like? We asked nutritionists

It’s the Pizza Bagel’s World, We’re Just Noshing in It

Peter Thiel is betting big on a $2B AI cow collar startup powered by cowgorithms — and investors are fighting to get in

Fun & Odd

How Food Stylist Olivia Somary Makes Onscreen Meals Look Delicious

Nestlé says 413,793 KitKat candy bars stolen en route from Italy to Poland

Dream job alert: You can now apply to be a ‘room service critic’ and a ‘hotel robe researcher’

The story behind the viral dancing restaurant robot that went wild in Cupertino

I Can’t Burp: A Gassy Medical Mystery

Marlon Brando Loved This Cereal So Much He Turned It Into An Alter Ego

Our possums are a problem. Could Selena Gomez Oreo cookies be the solution?

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The E-Shaped Economy Spells Trouble for Big CPG

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 15 Mar 2026 23:37:15 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Satisfying the Contradictory Consumer: We contain multitudes!

The E-Shaped Economy Spells Trouble for Big CPG: What happens when habits break?

Are We Building for the Wrong GLP-1 Future? Rethinking on/off meds

Permission Slip Nutrition: Not everyone is an expert

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Subscribe now

Products: ProFusion Protein Puffs; Nature Valley Kids Soft Baked Bars ; Snooz Sleep Prep Ice Cream; Sweet Loren’s RTB Bars; Doughpamine Take & Bake Cookies; Pepsico launches Good Warrior beef sticks; Taylor Farms High-Protein line

Satisfying the Contradictory Consumer

Consumer needs seem almost paradoxical today. If you look at everything from CAGNY presentations to Expo West top ten summaries you see seemingly contradictory themes everywhere. Consumers want exciting and fun sensory stimulation and no ‘chemicals’ or over-processing. They want health and indulgence. Clean label and functional benefits. Nostalgia and novelty. Premium and value.

How do you develop a product, or a pipeline, when what consumers ask for seems to be inherently contradictory? Well, I know what happens for many teams, they just pile all these into one brief and hope for the best. I’ve seen way too many briefs that look like this: “Develop a clean-label, functionally enhanced, indulgent yet health-forward snack with nostalgic appeal and novel differentiation at an accessible price point across grocery, convenience, and e-commerce.” Nothing here is necessarily wrong, but it definitely is impossible to activate.

The thing that teams miss is that consumers aren’t so much contradictory as they are contextual. The same person who analyzes and researches the back-of-pack ingredient list for their kid’s lunch snack is the same person who is OK ordering their child the most indulgent, processed thing on Uber Eats on Friday night. The guy that insists on eating the same maple-flavored oatmeal everyday for the last 25 years for breakfast is the same guy who can’t stand eating at the same fast-food place more than twice a month because he says he needs ‘variety and excitement.’ Consumers don’t see these as contradictions, neither should you. Instead, see them as different moments with different permission sets.

The “contradiction consumer” is created when you take all the learning about your consumer and flatten it into one persona. When you aggregate across occasions and try to satisfy everything simultaneously in a single product you end up with a hot mess. Too many innovation processes try to do just this because they’re built around categories and consumer personas, not around the specific moments where food actually plays a role in someone’s day.

The Category Problem

It doesn’t help that the shelf you’re launching onto no longer maps to how people eat. Consumers don’t think “I need a snack” as much as they think “it’s 3pm and I need something to get me through the afternoon.” That answer might be a protein bar, a functional beverage, a yogurt, or a cold brew. Each of those products live in four different aisles managed by four different category teams, but in the consumer’s life, they’re competing for the same occasion.

Of course, the reverse is true too. A “snack” at 3pm and a “snack” at 9pm occupy the same shelf but serve completely different needs. One is about nutrition, and the other is about reward. They should be developed against different briefs with different permission sets but instead, they’re developed against the same category benchmarks by the same brand team, producing products that split the difference (and, consequently, won’t win either moment).

Write for the Occasion, Not the Consumer

The fix isn’t better consumer research as much as it’s a different frame of reference. Stop writing briefs for “a consumer” in “a category,” and start writing briefs for a specific occasion with one primary permission and one secondary benefit.

For example, the Tuesday 3pm desk slump: primary permission is functional energy, secondary is clean ingredients. In contrast, the Saturday 9pm couch moment would be: primary permission is indulgence and novelty (and no, the consumer here is not reading the nutrition panel).

When you design this way, the contradictions pretty much disappear. You’re not cramming six consumer truths into one product. Instead, you’re distributing them across a portfolio of occasion-specific solutions, each of which is somebody’s first choice for a specific moment rather than nobody’s first choice for anything.

The E-Shaped Economy Spells Trouble for Big CPG

Have you heard about the K-shaped economy? How high-income US consumer purchases are basically keeping everything afloat while the rest of American consumers have stopped spending beyond basic needs? You have? Well, forget all that. We are in the E-shaped economy now.

The “E-shaped economy“ is a three-tier split where the top 20% keeps spending, the middle tier (which recently was part of the top part of the K, but split off) shops nervously, and the bottom leans on credit and BNPL (i.e., By Now, Pay Later, like Klarna) just to keep the fridge stocked. Most of the commentary I’ve read on this has focused on what it means for household budgets and consumer sentiment. Fair enough, but the part nobody in CPG seems to be reckoning with is what the E-shape does to the behavior of consumers and what that does to the business model of brands.

Here’s the problem as I see it: the middle tier of the E (the one that used to be the reliable core of grocery volume and the one that still had money and was interested in some premiumization) isn’t just spending less, they’re spending differently. Heather Long, the economist who coined the E-shape framing, describes what’s happening to this consumer as “whack-a-mole inflation,” where every couple of months a different staple category surges. This has been our reality over the last year: eggs spike, then they come down. Beef goes up 22% in January. Olive oil and Italian pasta are tariffed, then not, then ‘maybe’ re-tariffed? Chocolate prices climb. The specific category almost doesn’t matter anymore. What matters is that the pattern is unpredictable, and unpredictability is the thing that breaks habits.

Legacy CPG was built on habitual purchasing (i.e., the weekly trip, the standard grocery list, the in-store, muscle-memory reach for the same brand of pasta sauce). That behavioral loop is what made demand forecasting and trade promotion calendars work and what made the entire apparatus of brand loyalty measurable. We are now watching it collapse in real time in the middle of the E (it’s been long gone for the bottom tier).

Ibotta’s 2026 State of the Spend report found that 32% of shoppers now enter the store with only a ‘loose plan’ or no plan at all (up from 25% in 2023) and that pre-trip list-making dropped to 68% from 75% over the same period. Purdue’s Consumer Food Insights survey backs it up: 82% of consumers modified their shopping behaviors in 2025, with the most common adjustments being deal-seeking, brand-switching, and cutting nonessential purchases. These aren’t people who stopped buying groceries, they’re people who stopped buying groceries the way CPG needs them to.

The strategy of the middle tier shopper

If the planned, ‘grocery-list-having’, brand-loyal trip is eroding, the entire promotional model that Big CPG has spent decades optimizing is pointed at the wrong target. The traditional playbook (i.e., plan the TPR six months out, run the endcap, measure the lift, repeat) assumes a shopper who walks in with intent and can be nudged at the margin. But today the nervous middle-tier shopper is now scanning and improvising in the moment. They’re buying what looks like a reasonable deal this week and making dinner plans around whatever isn’t insane at the moment. That’s a shopper that’s difficult to reach with a promo calendar. To me, it sounds more like a shopper you reach (or lose) at the point of decision, every single trip.

The brands that will keep this consumer aren’t necessarily the ones selling for the lowest price. They’re the ones that become the “always safe bet” in a whack-a-mole world. The problem is that most national brands have spent the last four years doing exactly the opposite of what’s necessary (see: shrinkflation, margin management reformulations, and price-pack architecture shenanigans). That means that the trust required to be someone’s safe bet has been actively eroded. Meanwhile, private label has been busily capturing that trust. That same Ibotta study found that 62% of shoppers now say price matters more than brand name, and the share who believe name brands are better than store brands dropped from 44% in 2024 to 38% in 2025.

What reactive shopping actually rewards

There’s a deeper structural issue here that goes beyond promotion tactics. When you can’t predict what’s going to be expensive next month, you shop reactively, and reactive shopping reshapes what wins on shelf. But “reactive” doesn’t mean just one thing. Long calls the middle tier the “Costco economy,” and that label reveals a split personality in how this group is actually behaving.

On one hand, they’re consolidating staple purchases into planned Club store runs where the unit math makes value sense. Costco, Sam’s Club, Walmart, and Amazon all saw roughly 10% spending increases from this consumer, according to Navy Federal credit card data. That’s strategic bulk-buying, a deliberate shift in where the pantry gets loaded and at what price. On the other hand, as mentioned above, Ibotta found that 32% of shoppers now enter the store with only a loose plan or no plan at all. Both things are true at the same time because they’re two different trips serving two different jobs.

The Costco run is the defensive play: lock in unit economics on predictable staples at a great price. The conventional grocery fill-in trip is improv: discover what’s reasonable this week for the stuff you didn’t buy in bulk (likely private label).
This two-trip dynamic reshapes what wins differently depending on which trip you’re designing for:
In the Club channel: versatility over specialization: The bulk buy has to justify the upfront commitment, which means products that flex across multiple meals and occasions win over single-use specialty items. If you’re asking someone to buy 48 of something, it better work for Tuesday dinner and Saturday lunch and the kid’s lunchbox.
In conventional grocery: flexibility over loyalty: The fill-in trip is where brand-switching happens. The shopper who used to auto-pilot through the pasta aisle is now weighing three options every visit. Brands that can’t justify their cost in under two seconds lose.
Across both: the retailer’s app over the manufacturer’s coupon: Personalized, real-time deal signals beat the Sunday circular when the shopper’s entire strategy is “figure it out when I get there.” Loyalty program engagement is up to 65% of shoppers (from 58% last year, per Progressive Grocer), and personalized coupons are the most-used app feature. In other words, the retailer owns the relationship now and they are weaponizing it against this consumer (and the lower tier).
The promo calendar is misaligned with both trips. The traditional TPR playbook assumes a single weekly shop with predictable intent. But the Costco run doesn’t need a promo (the value is baked in), and the fill-in trip is too improvised for a six-month-old promotional plan to reliably intercept. Brands are spending trade dollars aimed at a shopping occasion that is splitting into two occasions they’re not set up to serve.

In other words, reactive shopping rewards almost everything CPG has historically been bad at and everything retailers have been investing in for the last five years.

My takeaway from all this is that the E-shaped economy isn’t just a macroeconomic story about who has money and who doesn’t. For CPG, it’s a behavioral story about the collapse of predictability in the middle of the market (the middle where all your volume lives). The brands that figure out how to design for the improvised trip (not the planned one) and figure out Club will be the big winners.

(‘Hey, why didn’t you talk about the top arm of the E?’ Truth: I was trying to make this post shorter and adding the top arm was doubling the wordcount. Some other time. Short version: They’ll buy you if they want (they can afford it). If you are trying to get them with ultra-premium, you’d better have a real premium brand (not a premium-like version of your mainstream brand)).

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Magos Whole Egg Chips; Sturdy Sauce; It’s That Simple 50% Less Carb Rice; Quest Stacks; New Primal Honey BBQ Seasoned Chicken Mini Sticks; Hippeas new flavors

Are We Building for the Wrong GLP-1 Future?

If there is consistent message being communicated in CPG boardrooms right now it’s this: GLP-1 drugs are going to fundamentally reshape how America eats. On this, I agree completely. Twenty-three percent of US households already have a GLP-1 user. Circana projects that number will represent 35% of all food and beverage units sold by 2030. This is real, it’s a structural change, and it’s not going away.

The question is how it reshapes things. Right now, I’m starting to wonder whether most of the industry is building for the wrong version. Let me explain.

The dominant playbook assumes GLP-1 becomes a permanent fixture in the household. A lifestyle drug people start and never stop, like a statin. If that’s your assumption, the strategy writes itself: reformulate for nutrient density, launch dedicated GLP-1-friendly lines, and slap functional claims on everything. Nestlé built Vital Pursuit, Conagra put “GLP-1 friendly” on Healthy Choice and PepsiCo is reformulating Propel with fiber and electrolytes for the medicated consumer.

But what if the future looks a lot more like the past: people cycling on and off, gaining and losing weight, with their grocery baskets swinging just as cyclically?

A Cornell study published in the Journal of Marketing Research last December tracked purchase data across 150,000 households. The headline numbers got plenty of airtime: GLP-1 users cut grocery spending 5.3% within six months, savory snacks dropped over 10%. But the finding that matters most got almost no attention: about a third of users stopped taking the drugs during the study period. When they did, their baskets didn’t just revert to normal, they came back slightly ‘less healthy’ than before they started, with increased spending on candy and chocolate. Not a return to baseline.

The clinical side tells the same story. A Lancet meta-analysis found discontinuation produces an average weight regain of 5.6 kg, climbing past 7 kg after six months off. The STEP 1 extension trial showed people regained two-thirds of lost weight within a year! And a JAMA analysis found 75% of users quit within two years (for people without diabetes, 85%).

Circana’s data adds one more layer: about half of former users eventually restart. Some healthy habits stick after stopping, particularly produce purchases. Others, especially beverages and frozen, snap right back. So, in many ways, we are back to the old loss/ gain cycle that we know from diet culture, now just with a pharmaceutical booster that makes the weight swings more dramatic.

So, two things popped for me when thinking through all this:

1. Weight maintenance is a massive opportunity: In old diet culture, just losing the weight was hard enough that maintenance was never a sexy topic. Now, when losing weight is “easier,” keeping it off is going to gain much more salience in the GLP-1 consumer’s mind. If your product can credibly help people hold at their GLP-1 weight post-drug, you’re sitting on something valuable. This is a product and marketing play: think high-protein, fiber-rich, blood-sugar-stable formats that aren’t positioned around weight loss but around weight maintenance. The brand that owns “life after GLP-1” as a positioning has a wide-open lane.

2. The intermittent user will define the category, not the permanent one: The actual emerging consumer isn’t someone with a stable, shifted basket. It’s someone toggling between suppressed appetite and a rebound phase where cravings return in force. Buying high-protein functional snacks in January, overshooting their pre-medication candy baseline by June. Nobody’s product strategy is built for this person. The GLP-1 lines assume sustained use. The legacy indulgent portfolios assume non-use. The cycling consumer falls between both.

The companies that get this right won’t be the ones launching dedicated GLP-1 sub-brands. I see them doing three less glamorous things:

Reformulate the core, not a spinoff: Build real nutritional credentials (protein, fiber, lower sugar) into existing SKUs without requiring the consumer to self-identify as medicated or previously medicated. Build clean label, portion-appropriate formats that work for a current GLP-1 user and one looking to maintain while not taking the drug.
Fix pack architecture for both phases: Smaller, nutrient-dense formats for the on-drug phase, standard sizes for the rebound. Same product line, no diet positioning on either. The cycling consumer’s biggest behavioral shift isn’t what they buy, it’s how much. Flexible pack sizes capture both modes without forcing a brand switch.
Model the cycle in demand planning: I haven’t heard anyone talking about this one yet. If a third of your consumer base is swinging their basket 5-10% in either direction based on whether they refilled a prescription this month, that needs to be built into your planning. Build GLP-1 adoption and discontinuation rates into your forecasting the same way you already model seasonality and promo lifts.

Permission Slip Nutrition

I was talking to a consumer recently and she was showing me her recent buys in her freezer. We got to a bag of frozen chicken nuggets and I asked her why she bought them.

“They’re delicious,” she said. “And healthier.”

“Healthier how?” I questioned.

“They took out the seed oils,” she said, pointing to the label.

It took me a while to understand what she meant. Basically, she believed that chicken nuggets are somehow always made with seed oils and this brand took the time to somehow remove or physically extract them (?!). For the record, she could not name a seed oil or explain why they were bad.

Her knowledge was wrong, but logically I could follow her decision (in a reality where nuggets automatically were laced with seed oils). While it would be easy to make fun of her for not understanding the fundamentals, the truth is she was a bright lady and she’s not unique. It wasn’t that she couldn’t understand, I just got the feeling she had other more important things to think about, because unlike many of us, she isn’t thinking about the food and beverage space most of the day.

We need to stop believing the average consumer is staying on top of nutrition science and food news. Too often we talk about consumers as though they have deep knowledge. Some do, of course, but most people are not reading studies, tracking emerging research, or maintaining a coherent nutritional worldview. They are living their lives while being absolutely pelted with health and nutrition information they didn’t ask for (seed oils, protein, gut microbiome, adaptogens, inflammation, GLP-1, lectins, collagen, etc.). The list never stops growing, never stops changing, and most of it contradicts something someone said last year.

So consumers do what any rational person does when the information environment becomes unmanageable: they stop trying to evaluate it themselves and start outsourcing the judgment to people they semi-trust (not fully trust, semi-trust, because in our low-trust world everyone is suspect until proven otherwise). Maybe it’s an influencer they follow, a work friend who seems to know about this stuff, or a podcast they half-listen to on the commute. Someone credible enough, for this category of decision, at this level of stakes (I mean, it’s just chicken nuggets).

That’s the permission slip economy. Someone in your orbit says this thing is bad or this thing is good and you file it. Later, a product makes it easy to act on that filing. It looks good, so you buy it, it tastes great, and you feel okay about it. So you’ll likely buy it again and tell someone else (who semi-trusts you) how you found chicken nuggets without seed oils really good.

This is how every major nutrition trend has moved through the mainstream. Gluten-free became a multi-billion dollar category not because celiac disease spiked, but because “gluten-free” translated into an easy to remember code word for healthier but still tasty.

Protein did the same from the opposite direction, not a villain removed but a hero added. Most people buying high-protein granola bars aren’t tracking macros. “Protein” just means this one is doing something for me. ‘No seed oils’ is the current version, and it’s a strong one because it combines both moves at once: a villain removed, a better ingredient added.

Now here’s the strange part: we created this environment. CPG brands, food media, wellness culture, functional ingredient suppliers looking for their moment in the sun. We collectively built a noise machine that made the permission slip economy inevitable. When you bombard people with more nutrition information than they can possibly process, they stop processing and start following. This is not a consumer failure, we did this!

The brands that understand this aren’t waiting to see if the seed oil science holds up. Instead, they’re asking a simpler question: what story are people who semi-trust each other currently passing around, and can we build a product that hands the mainstream consumer a permission slip they feel good about?

Products: e.l.f Big Dill pickle lip balm; Staple Gin; Minor’s Kitchen sauce launch Drizzy peanut butter;Nestle Choco Crossies;

TIDBITS

Food Industry

AI Is Destroying Grocery Supply Chains

Cadbury chocolate kept in anti-theft boxes as shops warn it’s being stolen to order

Walmart to pay $100 million to settle FTC allegations over deceptive practices for delivery drivers

Meet ‘Patty’, Burger King’s AI chatbot assessing staff’s friendliness

Papa Johns is closing hundreds of locations

Target to remove synthetic color from cereals by May end

The Third-Largest Coffee Chain in the U.S. Actually Sells Very Little Hot Coffee

BrewDog bought by US cannabis and drinks firm for £33m, costing nearly 500 jobs

B&G Foods sells Green Giant frozen line

Snack sales hold steady despite GLP-1 weight loss surge

The Ozempic effect reaches the bread aisle: Bimbo redesigns bakery for GLP-1 users

RFK Jr. Just Found Out How to Start a Revolt in Boston: Diss Dunkin’

EU agrees to chop meaty names from vegetarian and vegan food products

David Protein class action alleges protein bars contain more calories, fat than advertised

Bugs were supposed to be the future of food. Now, the insect farming industry is collapsing.

Lindt says weight-loss drugs users are eating more chocolate, not less

Campbell’s Cuts Outlook to 17-Year Low as Shoppers Forgo Chips

McDonald’s to Launch Value Menu with Items for $3 or Less

Interesting

Study explains how ketogenic diets prevent seizures

Sam Altman’s ‘Human Verification’ Startup Leans on Consumer Brands

The Fight For Slow And Boring Research

GLP-1s may increase risk of osteoporosis and gout, new research finds

Parisians Have Given In to the Lunch Salad

Dozens of Medical Schools Back Kennedy Plan on Nutrition After Pressure

7 Courses, No To-Go Cups: The Rise of the Coffee Omakase

This Is What You Get When Japanese and Italian Food Collide

Dinner and a show — for one. More Americans are doing things solo.

Walmart expands digital shelf labels to all US stores

With lunar missions looming, scientists grow chickpeas in ‘moon dirt’

Gen Z men are eating ‘boy kibble,’ the human equivalent to dog food, to load up on protein cheaply

Babies’ Gut Health Is the New Obsession for Parents—and Startups

Can AI Replace Humans for Market Research?

A New Generation of Mall Rats Has Arrived

When Using AI Leads to “Brain Fry”

Fun & Odd

The Sheffield supermarket going viral for the symphonic sound of its freezers

The tooth fairy is back in growth mode, with payouts up 17%

Philadelphia Food Stand Allegedly Receives Shipment of 600 French Onion Dips

Scientists create world’s first tomatoes that smell like ‘buttered popcorn’

‘Obnoxious’ AI supermarket chatbot talked about its mother, customers say

Woman Annoyed When Delivery Robot Comes Into Her Yard, Tears Up Her Garden and Steals Her Fence

Runners Are Discovering They Can Churn Butter on Their Runs—and It’s Surprisingly Easy

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The Innovation Lies Companies Tell Themselves

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 22 Feb 2026 23:06:43 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Fiber is not the Next Protein: And that’s ok

Innovation Lies: The stories we tell ourselves and how its holding us back

Nostalgia Trap: Why the easy button of nostalgia isn’t working anymore

Signals from the Shelf: Early trends to pay attention to

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

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Products: SmartFood Fiber Pop; Sun Chips Fiber; Greespi; Eat Natural Soft Fruit Bars with edible wafer paper; Snak Stars Sport Bites; Irresistibles Penne Pro-Gut Pasta; Slice Apple and Pacific Pop sodas; Poppi Amaya’s Island Colada Prebiotic Soda; Pepsi Prebiotic Soda

Fiber is Not the New Protein

PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta told analysts that “fiber will be the next protein.” McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski posted on Instagram that fiber “is going to be big.” CNN ran the headline “Protein is so last year.” Datassential, Mintel, everyone agrees.

You can see why. Only 7% of Americans hit the recommended daily fiber intake. The gut microbiome science is real and accelerating, and with GLP-1 drugs making satiety the most valuable word in food, fiber looks like the natural-ingredient answer. The industry wants a food-based companion to the metabolic revolution, and fiber is auditioning for the role.

So, everyone is running the protein playbook. Smartfood Fiber Pop (6g fiber, right in the name), SunChips Fiber and Nestlé’s “Fibre February.” If you’re in innovation right now, you’ve likely contemplating a new portfolio that makes fiber your new star.

Here’s the problem: the analogy driving this is wrong. Not because fiber doesn’t matter (it absolutely does), but “fiber is the new protein” isn’t a scientific claim, it’s a strategic claim, and it’s pointing teams toward a playbook that won’t work.

Protein didn’t need an explanation, fiber does: Protein carried a complete mental model the moment consumers heard the word. Protein = muscle = strength = full. “20g protein” on a bar was a self-contained selling proposition. Fiber triggers two associations for most people: Gritty cereal and... let’s just call it regularity. Neither is aspirational. Unlike protein (which is basically protein), fiber is actually a family of completely different compounds doing completely different things. Protein has a mental model. Fiber needs to build and choose a new one.

Protein is accumulation, fiber is optimization: People add protein to their lives competitively. Tracking protein intake is a lifestyle badge. “I hit 150 grams today” is something people post about. Fiber has a biological ceiling. The recommended daily intake is 25–30 grams, and if you overshoot it aggressively, your body lets you know in ways that are the opposite of aspirational. This is why the “30g Fiber” bar will never exist the way the “30g Protein” bar does, because it would be a medical event, not a snack. Just go watch Fibermaxxing regret videos (or maybe not, they are kind of gross). Net-net: you don’t market fiber as a high score, you market it as a tuning mechanism, and that requires a completely different strategic language.

The Inulin Trap: COGS vs. Efficacy

Most “fiber strategies” are actually just fortification strategies. It is easy and cheap to print “6g fiber” on a bag by using synthetic fibers like polydextrose or chicory root inulin. This is the industry’s favorite shortcut because it preserves margins and texture.

However, consumers are moving beyond the label claim toward the “bloat test.” Synthetic fortification often delivers the gas without the metabolic benefit of intrinsic fiber from whole plants. Regulators are also circling: the gap between “added fiber” and “functional health” is becoming a litigation risk. Any strategy that treats fiber as a marketing problem rather than a deep R&D/supply chain challenge is building on sand.

The Poppi lesson everyone is learning wrong: The biggest fiber success story of the last three years is Poppi. Which is weird because Poppi never sold fiber. It sold “better soda” through this mysterious thing called prebiotics (which most consumers don’t even know is a form of fiber). The prebiotic was the mechanism, not the message. Now compare that to Smartfood Fiber Pop, where fiber is the literal product name. That’s the protein playbook applied to a nutrient that doesn’t work that way. But the Poppi path has its own risk, the brand is facing class-action scrutiny over whether its prebiotic content actually delivers functional benefits. “Invisible infrastructure” still has to work.

The Three Strategic Paths

Stop calling it a “fiber strategy.” When you organize around the nutrient, you are forced into the “fortify and claim” arms race of protein. Instead, pick a specific functional role:

The Metabolic Buffer: Fiber as invisible infrastructure to solve the “sugar crash,” the race for a better gut, or manage GLP-1 side effects. This requires defensible clinical backing, not just a label claim.
The Whole-Food Hero: Using naturally high-fiber ingredients (lentils, chickpeas, ancient grains) where the source is the story. This is more litigation-proof and premium, but it requires changing your COGS model, not just your packaging.
The Companion Benefit: Positioning fiber as the “sidekick” to an already winning benefit (for example, Energy + Satiety or Glucose management + Focus). This is a smart way to take a high protein brand and differentiate it with fiber. This will likely be the main strategy of many brands.

The “Protein Playbook” is about more, more, more. The “Fiber Future” is about better, smarter, and more nuanced. If you try to win the fiber war by just shouting the gram count on the front of the pack, you’ll lose.

The Lies We Tell Ourselves About Innovation

1. The Startup Superpower is Speed

The real issue: The standard narrative is that startups win because their unique structure gives them more speed, authenticity, and consumer connection. All true, and all things big CPG companies have worked hard trying to mimic (i.e., intrapreneur teams, M&A, etc.). However, there is one often overlooked structural advantage that I think needs more press: continuity of conviction. In my experience, startup founders can hold a single insight (e.g., “parents want snacks that balance nutrition with kid acceptance” or “hot sauce should be a personality, not a condiment”) for five, seven, even ten years without ever having to rejustify it. Yes, they need to restate and sell it continually to investors, but they can stand steadfast. Contrast that to a large CPG company, where brand managers rotate every 18-24 months. Each new steward inherits a strategy they didn’t write, spends six months learning the business, six months developing “their” vision (which is always in opposition to their predecessor because they MUST show their thinking is different), and six months trying to launch something before they rotate again. No insight ever compounds. The brand doesn’t lack good thinking, it lacks sustained thinking. The institutional knowledge walks out the door on a predictable cycle, and what remains are decks no one looks, with discarded strategy that might have worked if the brand had more than one marketing manager rotation to hammer it home.

The fix: The rotation model isn’t likely to go away, so let’s set aside replacing it for now. However, companies can mitigate the damage. First, extend brand manager tenures on priority innovation platforms to a minimum of 36 months, with incentives tied to Year 2 and Year 3 performance, not just launch. If you only measure what happens in Year 1, you’re incentivizing trial-generation stunts, not brand building. Second, create a formal “brand conviction document”, not a brand book (those too often end up being aesthetic artifacts) but a living strategic brief that captures the why behind current positioning, the consumer tensions it’s built on, and the hypotheses the team is actively testing. Make the incoming brand manager’s first 30 days about interrogating that document with the outgoing manager, not reinventing it. Third, appoint senior “brand stewards” (directors or VPs) who hold continuity across rotations and have explicit authority to veto strategic reversals that aren’t backed by new evidence. The goal isn’t to prevent change, it’s to make change cumulative rather than cyclical.

2. We Are Actively Searching for Breakthrough Innovation

The real issue: Most CPG innovation pipelines are really just renovation pipelines. Yes, innovation comes in many different flavors, but most CPG innovation pipelines are not positioned to find them. Most are just full of line extensions, flavor rotations, limited-time offers, and format tweaks. The reason is simple: the stage-gate process was engineered to de-risk, and genuinely breakthrough concepts carry risk that the system is designed to eliminate. This isn’t a failure of the process, it’s the process working exactly as intended. The problem is that leadership uses innovation language and innovation budgets to describe what is operationally a renovation program, which creates a dangerous self-deception: the organization believes it’s investing in future growth when it’s actually optimizing current revenue. For me, the tell is in the kill rate. If your stage-gate process isn’t killing at least 30-40% of concepts that enter it, it’s not filtering, it’s just processing. And if everything that enters the pipeline looks roughly like what’s already on shelf, well, that’s just renovation.

The fix: Stop trying to fix stage-gate. It does what it does well. Instead, create a structurally separate path for breakthrough innovation: different team, different funding, different governance, different metrics. This isn’t a new idea (plenty of companies have tried “innovation garages”), but most fail because they reattach the separate path to the main process at commercialization, where it gets killed by the same feasibility and margin filters it was designed to escape. The critical design choice is where the handoff happens and who owns it. The separate path needs its own P&L owner with authority to commercialize at smaller scale, accept lower initial margins, and bypass standard distribution requirements. Think of it as an internal venture model with a dedicated general manager, not an idea lab that feeds concepts back into the machine [NOTE: there is also a need for ‘innovation back to core business’ as well, and it too needs adjusted stage gate metrics]. Measure the main pipeline on renovation metrics honestly (i.e., share defense, margin improvement, distribution gains). Measure the separate path on learning velocity and market signal: How fast are you getting real product into real consumers’ hands and reading the data back? The worst outcome is a single pipeline that pretends to do both and actually does neither.

3. We Can’t Afford to Be Late to The Trend

The real issue: Competitive benchmarking is the most respectable way to abdicate strategic thinking in CPG. When your innovation roadmap is reverse-engineered from what’s already on shelf (“Competitor X launched high-protein, Competitor Y launched functional mushrooms, we need our version”) you’ve basically outsourced your strategy to your competitors’ two-year-old thinking. By the time you’ve observed the launch, decoded it, briefed against it, and developed your response, you are realistically 18 to 36 months behind an insight that may already be decaying.

What has intensified this reflex is institutional FOMO. Social platforms, especially TikTok, compress time and exaggerate impact. A niche brand with strong engagement inside a narrow algorithmic bubble can look like a cultural tidal wave. Internally, that amplification triggers executive anxiety. Leadership gets forwarded viral videos and sees velocity screenshots and influencer hype and interprets them as category shifts rather than localized signals. The pressure becomes “What is our answer?” before the underlying consumer tension has been validated at scale.

Because every major player is watching the same feeds and the same syndicated reports, this creates convergence. Six companies launch near-identical products into the same perceived “white space,” each believing they are responding to urgency. Benchmarking does not reveal opportunity, it reveals consensus amplified by algorithmic noise. And consensus in a competitive market is the opposite of advantage.

The fix: Benchmarking has a role (trust me, nothing opens up eyes like a good trend trek), but it should be diagnostic, not generative. Use it to understand what competitors are doing, never to determine what you should do. That requires a different input: proprietary consumer understanding that is not available to your competitors. Invest in ethnographic and observational research that goes beyond the syndicated dashboards everyone subscribes to. Spend time in kitchens, pantries, and shopping trips rather than in trend recaps. Develop hypotheses about where behavior is heading, not just what is spiking online this quarter.

Institutional FOMO can be useful though. It can create urgency and prevent complacency, but it must be gated by evidence. Before greenlighting a reactive launch, require proof that the behavior extends beyond social media virality into sustained purchasing patterns. For every competitive benchmark that enters the pipeline, force the team to articulate the consumer tension it addresses independent of the competitive reference. If the only rationale is “They did it,” that is mimicry, not strategy. Kill it or send it back. Reorient the pipeline around consumer problems (i.e., jobs to be done) your team has identified, and let benchmarking serve as a secondary execution check, not a primary source of direction.

4. We Are Consumer-First

The real issue: Innovation strategy in CPG is always talked about as consumer-driven in every internal deck. This is true to a point, but the real gating function is frequently sitting in a bullpen in Bentonville or Issaquah (i.e., the buyer meeting). The team may start with real consumer tensions, but along the path to launch, products get designed backward from what the team believes will earn distribution. This means retailers, who are optimizing for category margin, shelf efficiency, and private-label protection, are silently co-authoring your innovation pipeline. This isn’t me trying to spread conspiracies, it’s rational economics. If your product doesn’t get on shelf, nothing else matters, so teams internalize retailer preferences as design constraints before concepts even reach the consumer testing phase.

The result is a pipeline optimized for sellability to the trade rather than desirability to the consumer. You can see this in the ‘sea of sameness’ that is new product sets across categories: similar pack sizes, similar price points, similar claim structures. This is not because consumers demanded that uniformity, but because the shelf demands it. The consumer is king in the strategy deck, but the retailer is king in practice.

When I’ve raised this issue with teams, the common pushback I get is “the retailer also wants to satisfy the consumer” so what does it matter. That’s true, but the retailer is optimizing for a different version of the consumer than your innovation team should be. The retailer is solving for the category shopper, someone standing in the aisle choosing among existing options. They want efficient assortment, clean price tiers, proven velocity, and minimal cannibalization of private-label margin. That’s a legitimate consumer lens, but it’s inherently conservative. It rewards incremental differentiation within established purchase frameworks. Your innovation pipeline should be solving for the emerging consumer tension, the unmet need, the behavioral shift, the thing that doesn’t yet have a clean shelf set because it doesn’t fit current category definitions. The most transformative innovations in food (e.g., Greek yogurt disrupting the dairy case, energy drinks creating an entirely new cold vault section) initially looked like terrible retail propositions. They didn’t fit the planogram, cannibalized existing segments, or required new shelf logic. Retailers and manufacturers aren’t misaligned on the consumer, they’re solving for different consumer time horizons. The retailer is solving for next quarter’s category review. Your pipeline should be solving for where the consumer is heading in two to three years. When you let the buyer meeting gate your ideation, you collapse those time horizons into one, and the shorter one always wins.

This dynamic is reinforced by incentive structures that nobody talks about openly. Innovation leaders are evaluated on launches that earn distribution. A brilliant concept that can’t get on shelf is, career-wise, is worse than a mediocre one that can. So, designing backward from the buyer meeting isn’t just a strategic habit, it’s a survival instinct. The institutional lie persists because the system rewards it.

The fix: You can’t eliminate the retailer’s influence, nor should you, distribution is a real constraint and pretending otherwise is fantasy. But you can sequence decisions differently to prevent the trade from colonizing early-stage ideation. Concretely: ban retailer-feasibility conversations from the first two stages of your innovation process. Let concepts develop against consumer problems without the filter of “will Walmart take this?” until the idea has enough shape and evidence to be evaluated on its own merits. When you do bring the trade lens in, separate the concept from the execution: the insight and the product idea should be locked; the pack size, price architecture, and shelf strategy should be flexible.

Second, invest in building direct consumer demand signals (DTC testing, social proof, influencer seeding) that you can bring to the buyer meeting as evidence rather than walking in empty-handed and hoping the concept sells itself. The brands that maintain the most innovation autonomy are the ones that can demonstrate consumer pull before they ever ask for distribution. That shifts the power dynamic from “please put us on shelf” to “here’s the demand you’re currently not capturing.”

Third, if you’re in a category where retailer gatekeeping is extreme, consider whether your first distribution channel needs to be traditional retail at all. Foodservice, club, e-commerce, and convenience can all serve as proving grounds that build the velocity story you need to negotiate from strength.

5. We Need More Consumer Research Before We Can Move

The real issue: There is no shortage of consumer insight in most CPG organizations. What there is is a shortage of conviction. The average innovation team has access to more data about their consumer than at any point in the industry’s history: syndicated panels, social listening, concept testing, segmentation studies, custom qualitative, ethnographies, AI-driven trend platforms. And yet the most common reason innovation stalls is “we need more research.” This sounds like rigor but it’s really fear and CYA. Research becomes a sanctioned delay mechanism, a way to avoid the organizational risk of making a decision that might be wrong. Each new round of research doesn’t resolve uncertainty so much as redistribute accountability. If the launch fails, no one can say the team didn’t do their homework, they can point to the ‘rigor’ and a number. The research didn’t inform the decision, it insured the decision-maker from getting yelled at.

You can spot this pattern by looking at what happens when research comes back. If the results are clear and supportive, the team moves forward. If the results are ambiguous or challenging, the response is rarely “let’s make a call anyway”, it’s “we need another round to clarify.” The goalposts move because the research was never the actual gate, confidence was. And no amount of data produces confidence in an organization that punishes failure more than it rewards decisive action. Meanwhile, while the team orders up another round of tests, the window closes, the consumer tension that sparked the idea evolves, a competitor moves and the internal champion for the idea rotates off the business. The insight was right, the team knew it was right, but the opportunity just dies somewhere between the 3^rd benefits survey and a focus group in New Jersey.

The fix: Stop treating research as a prerequisite for decisions and start treating it as a tool in service of decisions that have already been scoped. Concretely: before any research is commissioned, require the team to answer two questions in writing. First, what specific question will this research answer? Not “we want to understand the consumer better”, but a precise, confirmable question. Second, what will we do differently based on the answer? If the team cannot articulate how the research will change their course of action, the research is mostly theater. Additionally, institute decision deadlines that are independent of research timelines. Set a date by which the go/no-go call will be made and make the team work backward from that constraint. Research that can be completed in time informs the decision. Research that can’t is either scoped down or skipped. This forces prioritization, which questions actually matter versus which ones feel comfortable to ask. Finally, normalize the language of “sufficient conviction” rather than “sufficient evidence.” Innovation will never have test results that look as good and as certain as those of a line extension. If leadership demands overwhelming proof before acting on genuinely new ideas, they will only ever act on ideas that aren’t genuinely new. Build a culture where a well-reasoned bet with incomplete data is valued over a perfectly documented decision that arrives too late or is too safe.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Duncan Hines Peanuts Baking Collection; A&W Root Beer Float Sodas; Mochaccino Devil Dogs; Sweet Laren’s Barbie Pink Heart Cookie Dough; Pizza Hut ‘The Shape of My Heart-Shaped Pizza’ with Backstreet Boys Nick Carter and Howie Dorough; Coca-Cola Cherry Float; Mr Bubble Craft Soda

The Nostalgia Crutch: The Easy Button Isn’t Working Anymore

Last week at CAGNY, Kraft Heinz’s new CEO Steve Cahillane stood in front of a room full of analysts and said something profound: the company had been coasting on the fumes of its own past. He admitted that the brands are “so iconic, so special, so well known, but unfortunately, for too long, we have been relying too much on only that.” Instead, they need to be “contemporized.”

The price tag for this confession? A $600 million reinvestment in R&D, marketing, and sales. I applaud Cahillane for saying what needed to be said and backing it up with real resources. Now we just need the rest of CPG to see the same thing.

The Industry’s Favorite Defensive Play Has Hit a Wall

For the past several years, nostalgia has been CPG’s default easy button. Facing margin pressure, private label encroachment, and a consumer base drifting toward “cleaner” alternatives, legacy brands played the one card that private label can’t: their history. Retro packaging, throwback campaigns, heritage relaunches. The Stranger Things effect meets post-pandemic comfort-seeking.

It worked…for a while. But what we’re watching now is the structural failure of what I’d call Vintage-Washing: the lazy deployment of heritage aesthetics as a substitute for actual brand investment. Every obvious nostalgia play now triggers an eye-roll faster than it triggers a purchase. The conversion-to-cringe ratio has inverted. But (and this is important) the problem isn’t nostalgia itself. It’s doing the lazy version. A few brands are proving that heritage, deployed with actual creative ambition and product investment, still has real power. The difference is whether you’re making a withdrawal or a deposit.

Nostalgia Isn’t One Thing: The Four Dialects

Part of the problem is that most brands treat nostalgia like a monolithic resource. In reality, nostalgia operates in four distinct dialects, and the brands getting it right are the ones who know which one they’re speaking.

1. Memory Lane Marketing: The 42-year-old smiling at a 1992-era cereal box. It’s a direct line to personal history and very potent, but it’s a non-renewable resource. You’re activating an existing memory, not creating a new one. While you’re messaging relentlessly to the 40-something who already loves you, you’re building nothing for Gen Z and Alpha to withdraw later. This works when it’s a starting point, not an endpoint.

2. Handed-Down Nostalgia: This is how Oreos has survived generation after generation. The memory isn’t “I remember eating this,” it’s “this is what we do as a family.” Rituals are the only form of nostalgia that actually renews itself. They’re also the hardest to engineer and the easiest to destroy with a bad reformulation. Look at what Duncan Hines is doing with its new Peanuts baking collection, a Charlie Brown-ie Blondie Bar Mix, Snoopy Crinkle Cookies, Peppermint Patty Brownies. These aren’t just characters slapped on an existing box, they’re new products designed around the IP, built to create a baking moment between a parent who grew up on Peanuts and a kid who’s discovering it. That’s a two-generation deposit disguised as a licensed collab.

3. Cultural Cosplay: This is the Gen Z kid in the Nirvana shirt. They aren’t remembering the era as much as they’re borrowing its aesthetic to construct their own identity. There’s real energy here, but the trap is assuming these consumers share the original meaning. They don’t. If you play the old meaning back at them, you sound like that Steve Buscemi meme. This works when you let the new generation assign their own meaning to your heritage rather than insisting on the original one.

4. The Retro Remix: Nostalgic positioning outside, updated product inside (aka newstalgia). This was clever when it was novel, but now it is ubiquitous, which makes it uninteresting, unless you’re actually creating something new. A&W’s upcoming Root Beer Float soda is a good example of the remix done right. It takes one of the most nostalgic flavor memories in American beverages (the root beer float at the soda fountain) and delivers it as a ready-to-drink product that also rides the dirty soda trend Gen Z is already in. Heritage memory, modern format, genuine product news. That’s not IP strip-mining, that’s earning the nostalgia.

Why Nostalgia is Starting to Sputter

Two structural problems are converging at once.

The Era Mismatch: CPG executives remain stuck in a Gen X/Millennial loop, referencing the ‘80s and ‘90s. But the actual “borrowable past” for the next generation of spenders is the late 2000s and early 2010s, a period that doesn’t trigger the same warm glow in a 45-year-old brand manager’s heart.

The Trust Gap: When a brand uses a grainy, lo-fi filter to sell a highly processed, data-tracked product, the brain detects a mismatch. You’re deploying the aesthetic of a “simpler time” without giving any new benefits or even maintaining the quality people remembered. That’s exactly what Cahillane was acknowledging when he said Kraft Heinz hadn’t given consumers “additional benefits for the higher price tag.” You reminded people of how good you used to be and then handed them proof of how far you’d fallen. The nostalgia backfired and the structural issue isn’t that brands are bad at nostalgia, it’s that nostalgia became the strategy you ran when you’d given up on everything else.

Stop Harvesting, Start Depositing

Every nostalgia campaign is a withdrawal from a brand equity account you likely didn’t build. If you only harvest, you will eventually hit a zero balance. Kraft Heinz’s $600 million reinvestment is, at its core, an admission that the account is overdrawn.

Smart brands need to run a dual strategy: while you activate the 40-year-old’s autobiographical memory, you must simultaneously attach the brand to a new ritual for their kids. That’s how you convert a one-generation withdrawal into a two-generation deposit. While you lean into a retro visual identity, you must sharpen it until it becomes “borrowable,” distinct enough that a generation who never knew the original wants to claim it as cultural currency.

In 2026, nostalgia is no longer a “vibe.” It is a technical execution problem that demands actual investment in product quality, genuine innovation, and brand-building that goes far beyond dusting off the old logo. The brands that get this right aren’t just nostalgic, they’re using heritage as a launchpad for something new. The ones getting it wrong are strip-mining a finite resource and calling it strategy. If you can’t prove why your brand has earned the right to occupy that specific moment in someone’s memory (and if you can’t demonstrate that you’re building new memories worth having) don’t touch that easy button.

Products: Little Spoon Target Frozen; Mila’s Expo West frozen launch; Art of Sucre Cotton Candy; Nightingale Cookie Butter Cheesecakes; Chipwich Nut rolled; JuMex GoMix; YaxSnacks Chaya Chips; Modelo Chelada; Pillsbury Mexican Desserts.

GUT REACTION

Products: Doritos Protein; Babybel Pro; Nestle Vital Healthy Aging; Purely Elizabeth Purely Glow Granola; Smuckers peanut butter and jam sprinkles

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Disgruntled with Western pork, China wants to go back to black pigs

PepsiCo to cut some US snack prices after backlash

How the new dietary guidelines could impact school meals

Pizza Hut closing hundreds of locations in 2026.

How snack makers are trying to win back fed-up consumers

Companies can now claim ‘no artificial colors’ if they add plant-based color to food

Italy’s Richest Family Wants to Conquer America’s Breakfast Tables

China’s Luckin Coffee opens first high-end store as it takes on Starbucks

Grocery retail’s middle is struggling

Kraft Heinz pauses plans to split into 2 companies, says its problems are ‘fixable’

When Did Chicken Become the Most Expensive Thing on the Menu?

The Most and Least Expensive Supermarkets in the US, According to Consumer Reports

The world’s biggest food company doesn’t want to make ice cream anymore

America’s favorite condiment isn’t ketchup — it’s peanut butter

Marzetti to Acquire Bachan’s BBQ Sauce

The Beef Industry Has a Message for Consumers: Get Used to High Prices

General Mills is ‘innovating how we innovate’ with AI

Trump issues order declaring glyphosate national defense priority (to the anger of the MAHA base)

Hormel to sell off Thanksgiving turkey assets

Nestlé to sell off remainder of ice cream business

Interesting

Companies replaced entry-level workers with AI. Now they are paying the price

New Nestlé boss plots strategic overhaul to reignite growth

As ICE Enforcement Escalates Nationwide, Sean Sherman and Chefs Push Back

Ozempic is no longer the most searched for GLP-1 in the US

“Chinese hot water trend” –is it really good for you?

American Milk Has Changed

Some parents feed their babies lots of butter for health. Why experts say they’re partially right

More people are treating themselves to a solo meal

You Can’t Find a Job Because LinkedIn Went Full TikTok

We Shouldn’t Want to Eat Like Our Great-Great-Grandparents

Cracker Barrel Wants Its Staff to Eat One Thing on Work Trips: Cracker Barrel

‘Bigorexia’ Is On The Rise. Here’s What Parents Should Know.

Let Them Eat Goo

Even Dollar Tree Is Going After Rich Shoppers Now

Researchers Studied What Happens When Workplaces Seriously Embrace AI, and the Results May Make You Nervous

‘E-bike for your feet’: How bionic sneakers could change human mobility

What Executives Are Saying About the ‘K-Shaped’ Economy

Dinner Is Being Recorded, Whether You Know It or Not

Amazon dethrones Walmart as the world’s biggest company by sales

How ultra-processed foods affect our gut microbiome

Fun & Odd

America’s Favorite Wing Flavors

Grandson of the inventor of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups accuses Hershey of cutting corners

The pie and mash crisis: can the original British fast food be saved?

4 times drinking coffee was illegal—or even punishable by death

How the Easy Bake Oven revolutionize the toy industry

It’s Called the ‘Fitbit for Farts’—and It’s No Joke

How Pancakes are Made in 11 Countries (video)

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Big CPG's Shopping List: 7 Gaps They Can't Fill Fast Enough

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 01 Feb 2026 22:07:22 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Whole is the New Center: The Future of CPG is Anchored in Whole

So Much Creamer! Why coffee creamer continues to blow up

Portfolio Holes: The 7 Biggest Gaps that CPG Companies Need to Fill

IRL: Catch my keynotes and conferences

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Whole Is the New Center Of CPG

Several weeks ago, I wrote a newsletter talking about ultra-processed food, matrix thinking, and consumers. I got a lot of emails from people asking me to talk further about what this means for the industry and product development. This is that story.

For decades, CPG product development was essentially ‘slurry logic.’ Take ingredients, process them for stability and cost, add back flavors and textures to tweak liking scores, and sprinkle in functional components for nutritional claims. The “product” was the sum of the formulation. Think protein bars: they’re not any one thing. They’re designed matrices where ingredients lose their identity in service of the engineered whole.

Whatever your personally feeling about this truth of the food industry, there is no denying that this approach has built empires. It did for the food industry what the Model T assembly line did for automobiles. But its future is in danger.

Why Now?

Three forces have converged:

First, processing became a cultural category, not just a scientific one. The idea of processing as a potential negative is starting to enter mainstream consciousness. The question consumers ask isn’t just “what’s in this?” but “what was done to this?” Slurry products can’t answer that question in ways that map to kitchen logic. (What’s the home analog to extrusion? Yeah, there really isn’t one.)

Second, reductionist nutrition collapsed. Decades of isolating single variables (e.g., saturated fat, cholesterol, sodium) and building entire product categories around removing them (e.g., low-fat food) now reads as too simplisic. Consumers are moving from ingredient-level thinking to systems-level thinking: whole foods work together for reasons we don’t fully understand, so maybe stop taking them apart.

Third, institutional trust inverted. The same dietary guidelines that pushed skim milk and margarine for 40 years are now seen as industry-captured, wrong, or both. The heuristic becoming: if they told us to avoid it, maybe we should eat it. Whole foods never needed official validation.

What’s Replacing Slurry Logic

Anchor architecture. Start with a recognizable whole food as the structural and conceptual center, then build outward from it.

Take something like the Date Better product above. They start with dates as the core of the product then stuff them with nut butter and roll them in seasoning. In many ways, it serves the same function and has similar components as a snack bar, but in this case, everything is recognizable, not slurried.

The anchor carries the trust: When consumers can point to the center of your product and say “that’s cheese” or “that’s a lentil,” the whole thing inherits credibility. You don’t need to parse 30 ingredients. The cognitive load drops to almost nothing, you just ‘get it.’

Processing becomes defensible: With an anchor food, the story is intuitive: we took this whole thing and did X to it. Smoked it. Roasted it. Seasoned it. Consumers can mentally simulate the process. Maybe you added something a little more processed around it? That’s ok, I understand the core.

Flavor innovation gets modular: When your core is a stable anchor, flavor becomes plug-and-play. No reformulation needed to go from one variant to the next, just apply different flavor systems to an unchanged base. The R&D velocity advantage is substantial.

Categories get scrambled: A seasoned dried lentil isn’t a snack or a topping or an ingredient, it’s all three depending on occasion. When anchor products compete across multiple aisles simultaneously, your shelf-set strategy is already obsolete.

What To Do About It

Audit for anchor potential: Which products have a recognizable whole food buried in slurry logic that could be revealed rather than hidden? How might you reverse engineer your product to have anchor architecture?

Develop “dress the whole” platforms: Invest in flavor and texture systems designed to enhance recognizable base foods rather than next-generation formulation.

Rethink competitive mapping: Map threats by usage occasion and trust architecture, not aisle assignment.

Track ingredient count like you track margin: The metric isn’t just clean label, it’s short label. Can you get your flagship under 10 ingredients? Under 5?

Legacy CPG mastered building products from components (heck, I build my own career on it!). But the emerging challenge is building products that are recognizable components, then adding value without compromising that legibility. It’s turning into a different game.

So Much Coffee Creamer!

When I was growing up, coffee creamer was either: 1. Real cream/half-n-half you grabbed from the fridge; 2. Tiny, plastic tubs full of ‘coffee whitener’ that were ubiquitous at diners; or 3. Tubs of powders like CoffeeMate found in every breakroom or the much more ‘fancy’ International Coffees.

Compared to this, the coffee creamer situation in 2026 (with jugs of Funfetti creamer and plant-based blends) is a on whole other level.

So, what’s really going on here? You might think “Well, we drink a lot more coffee today than we did back in the day, so, more coffee = creamer.” But you’d be wrong. People in the US drank 2-3X as much coffee back in the 1950s-70s compared to today. So, why has coffee creamer suddenly become a $7.5B category in the US (with an estimated 6.5% CAGR by 2031)? I have some thoughts.

Six Forces Driving the Boom

The Death of the “Black Coffee” Default: In the 1950s and 60s, coffee was a binary choice: black or with a splash of milk/sugar. Today, coffee is increasingly seen as a blank canvas, not a standalone beverage. For Gen Z and Alpha, the “coffee” part is often just the caffeine foundation for the creamer’s flavor profile. We’ve moved from “coffee with creamer” to “creamer with a caffeine kick.”

Justified Indulgence: We all know we shouldn’t eat a cupcake at 6:00 am, so you eat a muffin and feel better about your life choices. In the same way, you shouldn’t have a Salted Caramel Brownie for breakfast, so instead we add a splash of CoffeeMate’s eponymously named creamer to our coffee and avoid the guilt. As consumers are looking to cut down on their morning indulgences, creamer becomes a ‘not so bad’ swap in.

Re-Justified Indulgence: As the market for these indulgent creamers has increased, brands have had to crank up the decadence. Caramel isn’t good enough anymore, now we have Ultra Fudge brownie flavored creamers. Not surprising, its becoming difficult for consumers to justify dumping liquid Snickers into their morning cup of joe. So, brands need to re-clean creamers by making products that are ‘made with real cream,’ ‘just 4 ingredients,’ or plant-based.

Non-Dairy Unlock: Speaking of plant-based, non-dairy creamer leads the growth curve for the category. Plant-based tech has gotten a lot better and a lot of people have recognized that dairy doesn’t work for them (especially on an empty, early morning stomach).

Starbucks Effect + COVID: COVID trained us to treat our morning coffee as a craft project. The creamer aisle is now the easiest customization lever. Especially when you’ve ‘crafted’ your own personal Keurig or Nespresso pod, adding creamer completes the ritual.

Coffee got expensive: Coffee prices are up 40% (even more so in cafes) so more people are brewing at home and choosing cheaper brands. Maybe you don’t have a fancy machine, or maybe you just can’t afford to buy that single origin arabica and have to make do with old-school Folgers. Well creamer can cover a lot of defaults. Cheaper coffee + good creamer might be a value equation more people find palatable.

What Comes Next

I think creamer has a lot more room to grow. As an add-in, it can change and morph based on the trend of the moment. Things like:

Functional decadence: We’re about to see the collision of “stealth dessert” and biohacking (I know, those felt weird to write together in a sentence, but 2026 is like that). Expect creamers with collagen, L-theanine to smooth the caffeine spike, and adaptogenic mushrooms, that still taste like Salted Caramel. It’s the ultimate “have your cake and optimize it too” play. Premier Protein already cross-sells as a creamer substitute. “20g protein creamer” as its own category is coming!

Savory and Beyond: This sounds insane until you remember butter coffee exists and sells. Watch for brown butter, bone broth-adjacent, or umami-forward creamer variants as keto and carnivore aesthetics creep further mainstream. I can also see (I hate these terms) “Swavory” (Sweet + Savory) and “Swangy” (Sweet + Tangy) variations as well.

Texture Play: The fascination with “CrunchTok” has evolved into a 2026 obsession with “Velvety” and “Cloud” textures (see barista foams). I can see the next round being about layered creamers (engineered to stay in distinct layers) OR a solid marshmallow-like creamer that you drop in and let melt into your drink OR even boba-like textures. So much texture opportunity beyond the current foams.

Beyond coffee: We are approaching a "peak coffee" paradox where the coffee itself becomes optional. As "coffee-free" caffeine bases (like botanical energy blends and mushroom coffees) scale, the creamer category will simply pivot to become a "Morning Base" that doesn't need the bean at all. Look at how far from coffee Starbucks has migrated and you get a sense of the future. Consider creamers for matcha/teas, cheese teas (for funky fermented flavors and textures), for soda (i.e., dirty soda), and cocktail/mocktails.

Coffee for creamer? As creamers get more complex, dominant, and popular, could it boomerang back and affect the type of coffee sold? Imagine ultra-light, acidic single-origins for the purists who drink it black and purpose-built roasts (‘made to match our creamers’) designed specifically to stand up to and complement the creamer. Medium roast becomes no-man’s land: too weak to cut through the Funfetti, too roasty for the specialty crowd.

Identity Work: You are already seeing creamers trying to make their products more about ‘who you are’ versus just a coffee add in. Paris Hilton’s recent collaboration with International Delight is an example here.

The private label squeeze (and the escape hatch): Once Walmart and Costco nail the clean-label indulgent creamer formulas, and the plant-based co-man, the branded middle will get crushed. The defense? Functional stacks and identity plays that are harder for private label to replicate. A creamer with a specific protein blend, a mushroom complex with a sourcing story, a collab with a wellness influencer, these create moats that “Great Value Birthday Cake Creamer” can’t cross.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Rotten Candy; Cerebelly; Proper Good; Egglife Grab and Go Wrap; The Good Bean; Oats Overnight Asto Investment; Snap Kitchen + Nimbus; Chosen Food ‘Chosen to Save Food’ Ad; Mid-Day Squares

Big CPG’s Shopping List: 7 Gaps They Can’t Fill Fast Enough

Everyone’s talking about what Big CPG is selling off. There isn’t as much talk about what they are looking to buy.

Mars paid $36 billion for Kellanova. Kraft Heinz is splitting itself in two. General Mills spun out yogurt and Muir Glen in the same quarter. The narrative is “get smaller, get focused, improve margins.” Wall Street loves it.

But here’s what’s actually happening: these companies just spent three years pruning their portfolios for profitability, and they’re discovering they’ve cut away their ability to compete in the categories that are actually growing. The current M&A frenzy (Smithfield buying Nathan’s Famous, L Catterton taking majority stake of Good Culture at a $500M+ valuation, Highlander buying Tapatio) isn’t about empire building it more portfolio triage.

Legacy portfolios were engineered for a consumer and retail environment that no longer exists (or is quickly disappearing). Organic innovation isn’t filling the gaps fast enough. What follows are the seven biggest holes I’m seeing, and how they might get plugged.

1. The “GLP-1 Ready” Portfolio

Legacy brands are built on calorie density and volume economics. You can’t easily innovate “down” in portion size while innovating “up” in nutrient density without cannibalizing your value-engineered core.

Will everyone be on GLP-1 drugs? No. But GLP-1 thinking (i.e., high protein, high fiber, metabolic optimization) is already reshaping how non-users approach food. Actual users could hit 20% of the population, and they’re deprioritizing Big Food staples entirely. Legacy brands can’t convince their core consumers to pay more for smaller, more nutrient-dense versions of familiar favorites, but smaller brands have already earned trust with this demographic.

Watch: Proper Good (portion-controlled, functional satiety), Aloha (clean-label protein with MAHA tailwinds), DripDrop (hydration is critical for GLP-1 users, and functional hydration opens the door to protein/fiber water), Snap Kitchen or Clean Eatz Kitchen (the DTC on/off ramp for GLP-1 users who won’t be on the drug forever, plus the consumer data is gold).

2. The “MAHA-Compliant” Portfolio

Portfolios heavy in emulsifiers, gums, and synthetic dyes are culturally exposed under the “ultra-processed” lens. You can’t de-process legacy SKUs without destroying margins or alienating consumers who like how the products taste. This isn’t a reformulation problem, it’s more of an architecture problem.

The recent “upside down pyramid” dietary guidelines flagged ultra-processed foods. Eighteen states have SNAP restrictions on high-sugar, highly processed items (with more to come). PepsiCo is launching dye-free Cheetos (that’s some serious defensive repositioning). Reformulating 1,000 SKUs is a multi-year, margin-destroying exercise. It’s faster to buy a clean-label platform with NOVA Level 1-2 credibility and use it as a halo.

Watch: Ancestral meat-focused companies that can stretch into meals and snacks (see Force of Nature) and meat snack brands already having an impact like Chomps (or smaller upstarts like like Fatty and Mighty Spark). Also, non-seed oil brands like Chosen Foods (lots of vertical potential) or Masa (tallow chips). For those wanting to go deeper in the stack, a brand like ARMRA speaks to the real metabolism revolution and the belief in cellular health and gut-barrier integrity.

3. Heritage Cuisine 2.0

Most Big CPG “ethnic” offerings are circa 1995. Gen Z expects specific, regional, authentic flavor profiles (gochujang, Sichuan málà, achaar, mole) that legacy R&D can’t replicate. The gap isn’t “Mexican” vs. “Asian,” it’s Ortega vs. Siete, La Choy vs. Fly By Jing.

The U.S. Asian food market hit $38B in 2025. Korean cuisine is the fastest-growing segment and South Asian condiments are the next big crossover. Mexican cuisine is the third most popular in the U.S. and growing fastest among younger adults, but the “Mexican-American pantry” is being redefined by brands that honor heritage rather than flatten it into middle American bland. PepsiCo paid $1.2 billion for Siete because they couldn’t build that brand permission internally.

Watch: Fly By Jing (Sichuan-specific, $50M+ revenue, massive expansion potential beyond condiments), Bachan’s (Japanese BBQ sauce with mainstream traction and clean ingredients), Momofuku Goods (controversial, maybe, but David Chang already built the brand permission, it’s the Siete of Asian flavors).

4. Kids’ Nutrition 2.0

Big CPG built kids’ portfolios for the Stranger Things era of Tang, sugary cereals, and fruit snacks. Now they’re ground zero for the MAHA/UPF backlash. No, it won’t happen as fast as some wellness influencers say it will, but it will happen. Already, brands like Kraft Heinz’s Lunchables is under direct regulatory attack. The legacy kids’ portfolio of so many big CPG brands is structurally misaligned with where culture and regulation are heading.

SNAP restrictions on high-sugar children’s products are expanding state-by-state. Millennial parents read ingredient lists and feel genuine guilt. Once Upon a Farm is pricing its IPO at a $764 million valuation, category maturation is here! Parents don’t trust legacy brands to make healthy kids’ food like they used to. Acquiring a clean-label kids’ brand provides instant credibility and a 15-year loyalty flywheel.

Watch: Serenity Kids (meat-based baby food, protein-forward, room to grow into tweens), Yumi (owns the DTC relationship and data legacy brands lack), Cerebelly (brain-boosting positioning with age-stretch potential).

5. Fiber 2.0: The Whole-Matrix Move

Legacy CPG spent two decades treating fiber as a chemical patch, a “sprinkle-on” solution used to retroactively fix the nutritional void of processed snacks. Think puffed commodity grain bars filled with chicory root “fortification.” The next multi-billion dollar shift is the move from added powders to Intrinsic Fiber. This is fiber that is baked into the whole food matrix (legumes, tubers, whole fruits), where fiber naturally comes paired with protein and other nutrients. It isn’t just a line item on a label, it’s the structural foundation of the food itself, bringing a “full-spectrum” profile of soluble fiber, insoluble fiber, and resistant starch that synthetic additives can’t mimic.

While Big CPG chased protein as the “hero macro,” they left the fiber landscape wide open for a massive market correction. PepsiCo’s Laguarta recently said “fiber will be the next protein.” That’s because fiber is the body’s natural trigger for GLP-1 secretion, and with 90% of Americans failing to hit their daily targets, the addressable market is effectively everyone.

To win, acquirers must stop buying brands that add fiber and start buying brands that are fiber. The goal is to take these high-integrity, whole-food profiles and move them into portable, “craveable” formats that can finally go toe-to-toe with the legacy chip and puff aisle.

Watch: Banza or Brami (bean-based pastas with fiber/protein profiles GLP-1 thinking prioritizes; Brami sales surged 440% last year), The Good Bean (roasted chickpea/bean snacks with scalable manufacturing), Oats Overnight (whole food, high-fiber, disrupting cereal and beverage, just raised $45M) and Flora (Jeni Britton’s, of Jeni’s Ice Cream, whole food gut-friendly startup).

6. Functional Confectionery

Candy and chocolate are the most culturally vulnerable to MAHA/UPF crackdown. They’re “guilty pleasures” in an era demanding functional performance. Big Candy cannot organically launch credible “healthy chocolate” without brand permission.

The 2025 Halloween data was a wake-up call: natural candy brands saw record sell-through while legacy brands saw volume declines. Better-for-you confectionery is growing 15%+ while traditional candy is flat (this is also partially due to the rising cost of cocoa. If you are paying more for that chocolate bar, it better have added benefits). Parents are trading up on treats: fewer, better candies instead of legacy volume. Acquirers get proprietary sweetener systems, functional formats, and brand permission they can’t create internally.

Watch: Unreal Snacks (reimagined classics, 40% less sugar, massive retail traction), Joyride Sweets (high-fiber, low-sugar gummies that taste like candy first), Rotten Candy (prebiotic fiber, 60% less sugar, natural colors, appeals to kids and adults), The Functional Chocolate Company (adult chocolate focusing on ethical sourcing and botanical wellness), Oobli (the sweet protein tech alone is worth the aquisition) and Mid-Day Squares (less confection than a functional snack, with $30 million in annual revenue, maintaining a y/y growth rate of 40%-50%).

7. Functional Daily Rituals

Big CPG sells through weekly grocery trips. What they can’t build is products that become identity-defining daily habits with subscription economics and 70%+ retention rates. The “functional daily ritual” category has cracked this model. So far, traditional CPG has no credible play here.

Case in point: greens giant AG1. They’ve built a $600M+ business via manosphere ads and being the ‘all-in-one’ ritual of the tech elite. Liquid I.V. proved the exit math for Unilever. Bloom Nutrition cracked TikTok-native marketing in ways legacy brands struggle to replicate. You’re buying subscription revenue with predictable LTV, a community moat, and a customer acquisition engine Big CPG desperately needs but can’t build from scratch.

Watch: Bloom Nutrition (Gen Z’s greens powder, TikTok-native, $110M raised at $500M+ valuation; smaller and more acquirable than AG1), Force Factor (whole foods-first approach to daily vitamins, making greens/beets/mushrooms palatable), Ryze (coffee substitute that hijacks the existing ritual with mushroom-based functional benefits), Seed Health (rumored to already be an acquisition target for this year, this high-design , gut-health company is the daily ‘vitamin’ for the next generation), and LMNT (one of the leaders in the electrolyte trend, its basically the new Gatorade).

The pattern I hope you see here isn’t just “buy what’s trending,” it’s that Big CPG has spent years optimizing for a game that’s already over. The portfolio holes aren’t accidents, they’re the structural cost of running legacy brands at legacy margins in a culture that’s moved on. Acquisitions aren’t filling gaps as much as they’re buying entirely new architectures that can’t be reverse-engineered from what these companies already own. These gaps must be filled ASAP.

Products: eos Cashmere Cakes; Cheez-Its + Jimmy Butler; Graza adds mayo line; ChicP functional hummus launch ; Sippop launch

IRL

I’m excited to be speaking on the main stage at BakingTech 2026 on Feb 19 (as well as participating in the follow-up Ideation Lab for Q&A). My keynote will focus on the role the specter of ultra-processed food is having on the product and retail landscape and how consumers are rapidly evolving their thinking about the role of processing.

TIDBITS

Food Industry

There Are 29,000 people on a waitlist for beans

Warren Buffett’s successor eyes selling off Berkshire Hathaway’s 325 million Kraft Heinz shares

Nestlé reportedly launches sale process for €5B water business

Smithfield buys hotdog-maker Nathan’s Famous

KFC ranked worst out of 76 restaurant chains per new market share analysis

The US Government Wants You to Kick Your Diet Soda Habit

High January Is the New Dry January

Dr Pepper used a TikTok creator’s jingle. Now everyone wants to get in on the act

General Mills sells Muir Glen tomato brand to private equity firm

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Starbucks earnings: Company posts first quarter of US sales growth in 2 years as CEO Niccol says plan is ‘working’

Freedom With a Side of Guilt: How Food Delivery Is Reshaping Mealtime

‘You don’t feel judged’: Why we buy more at self-service terminals

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Interesting

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Why you might get a “peanut butter“-style pay raise in 2026

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Brain bran: The protective effect that fiber has on cognition

Hard Times in the Delta as Farmers Consider Letting Crops Rot

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How Americans are using AI at work, according to a new Gallup poll

Gen Z Doesn’t Go to the Club. They Party at Coffee Shops Instead.

Fun & Odd

Chips ahoy! English beach covered in French fries and onions after cargo ship spill

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Why Do Restaurants Put Lemon in Water? (And Wait, Should We Avoid Them?)

PENTAGON PIZZA INDEX (Based on idea that the more pizza orders to the Pentagon the more likely a major development)

The mushroom making people hallucinate seeing tiny people

Why disposable coffee cup lids have that tiny second hole

What Happened to All the Barbie Cakes?

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The GLP-1 Clock Is Ticking for Sweet Brands

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 18 Jan 2026 22:43:12 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Protein Evolution: 5 themes you need to consider

Cottage Industry: Why cottage cheese is the new industry darling

Sweet Brand Strategy: Navigating the GLP-1 era

The Bro-Optimization Economy: From Gen Z to Shelf

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

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Products: Vieve Protein Bars; Barilla Protein+ Stars; Jack Link’s x Mr. Beast New Zealand Jerky Launch Coconut Protein Cult; Smoothie King 100g Protein Pack; Ghost x General Mills Lucky Charms; PRIME Shake; Barebell’s Peanut Cloud Soft Protein Bar; Impossible x Equii protein partnership; CrunchClub protein chips; Magic Spoon Protein Pastries; Nature’s Own Life Wheat + Protein Bread; GRYP SloRelease Protein Bar; Premier Protein Muffin Mix; Blaze Protein-zza 56g protein pizzas; Creatime creatine + protein bar

The Evolution of Protein: 5 Themes Brands Need to Consider

Looking at the market, protein feels like an unstoppable force. It is the one trend that seems immune to gravity. But that constant success can breed lazy thinking. It creates the illusion that “Protein” is one giant, unified thing that you can just tap into for guaranteed sales.

That might have been true five years ago, but it isn’t now. The “add protein” tactic misses the nuance of how the nutrient has evolved culturally. It has splintered from a gym necessity into a complex cultural talisman. If you are still treating protein as a single ingredient rather than a spectrum of different consumer needs, you are missing the actual opportunity.

Right now, I see protein existing in five main themes. Some of these are shrinking while others are new and growing. Note, these are not mutually exclusive. There are several brands that successfully overlap these themes in their positioning, but that requires keen knowledge of your consumer.

Protein Theme #1: Anabolic (The Muscle Builder)

The Meaning: This is the ancestral home of protein as a ‘wonder macro.’ The goal here is simple, construction of more muscle.

The Manifestation: The semiotics here are industrial and masculine. Heavy 5lb tubs of powder, bulky fonts, and black backgrounds. Aggressive and non-subtle names like Muscle Milk or Combat Protein. The flavor profile is almost exclusively simple sweet (Chocolate, Vanilla, Peanut Butter Chocolate, etc.).

The Trajectory: This is a legacy market. It isn’t dying, but it is niche (though very profitable for the incumbents). It serves the specific utility of ‘gains.’ Protein here is a tool for getting bigger, and the flavors are just a way to make it easier to ‘neck it’ (i.e., swallow more, faster). Innovation is in developing formulas with better macros and micros (e.g., creatine, BCAA) to get results faster or formats that ease the eating.

Protein Theme #2: Metabolic (The Optimizer)

The Meaning: This was the first major pivot out of just ‘gains.’ We moved from “getting big” to “running clean.” Protein stopped being about size and started being about efficiency, longevity, and perfecting the body’s “operating system.”

The Manifestation: The aesthetic shifted from heavy plastic bulk tubs and ‘shouty’ graphics to sleek aluminum, calming earthtones, and Swiss-style minimalism. The vibe isn’t raw power, it’s precision. It borrows the visual language of the tech world or high-end skincare (i.e., packaging with quiet quality).

The Trajectory: This is currently the mainstream driver in the protein space. It aligns with the longevity movement (Attia/Huberman) and the functional additive trend (caffeine, mushrooms, prebiotics). The message is: I am tuning my engine; I’m in diagnostic mode.

Protein Theme #3: The Silencer (The Hunger Plug)

The Meaning: This is a new frontier driven by GLP-1 thinking. In a world obsessed with Ozempic, the ultimate consumer goal is not energy or muscle, it is satiety. Now, even consumers who aren’t on GLP-1s recognize that there needs to be an off-switch for “food noise,” and the answer is a massive dose of protein. It is the mainstream acknowledgement that metabolism is malleable, that we can hack our satiety hormones if we just hit them hard enough.

The Manifestation: The aesthetic here is ‘Aggressive Abundance’, and interestingly, it often comes wrapped in “Anabolic” clothing. It evokes the imagery of The Rock eating four plates of steamed cod for lunch to bulk up with the flavor cues of Chipotle or a Meat-Lover’s Pizza. The visual language is “loaded,” “dense,” and “heavy.” It rejects the “snack” format entirely in favor of the mega-meal. The goal is to visually promise that this single serving will defeat your hunger for the rest of the day.

The Trajectory: Rapid growth. Look at Smoothie King’s recent 100g Protein Pack or Blaze Pizza’s Protein-zza. It is a biological override switch designed to keep you full for 8-10 hours. Plus there is a value play here as well (i.e., “look at how much valuable protein I’m getting for the price.”). As the “Ozempic Body” becomes standard, expect more “One-and-Done” protein boluses designed to conquer hunger. Note: These huge meals aren’t for actual GLP-1 takers (who physically couldn’t stomach that volume), this is the meme of GLP-1 entering the culture for the masses.

Protein Theme #4: Responsible Regression (The Nostalgia Blanket)

The Meaning: The world is chaotic, scary, and demanding. “Adulting” is hard. Consumers want to return to the safety of childhood (or at least a time before they learned about nutritional consequences), but they carry the burden of nutritional awareness. They want comfort food (whether that’s a cookie, a Pop-Tart or a simple sandwich) but they can’t eat “empty carbs” anymore without guilt. They need an alibi.

The Manifestation: We are seeing a “Saturday Morning Cartoon” aesthetic colliding with “Soft Pantry” comfort. The packaging often uses soft-touch matte finishes, rounded “bubble” typography, and bright, saturated dopamine colors (pinks, electric blues) to reject the serious “medical” look of Metabolic protein. Crucially, the formats are tactile and soft (stars, cookies, fluffy bars, and pillowy bread) deliberately mimicking the mouthfeel of safe, nursery food.

The Trajectory: This explains the Barilla Protein+ Stars (a toddler soup shape for adults) and Magic Spoon’s Protein Pastries, but also the staple rehabilitation seen in Nature’s Own Life Wheat + Protein. This isn’t just about treats, it’s about “protein-washing” the enemies of diet culture. We are moving away from challenging textures (kale chips) toward soft, nostalgic formats that soothe anxiety while offering nutritional cover. The message is: I am taking care of my inner child, responsibly.

Protein Theme #5: Symbolic (The Totem)

The Meaning: In a micro-fragmented culture, what you eat tells the world (and yourself) who you are. Protein has become the primary badge of tribal allegiance. It is no longer about the amino acids, it is about the “vibe.”

The Manifestation: The aesthetic here is Streetwear & Hype. It looks like a “Drop,” not a grocery launch. The packaging is chaotic, high-contrast, and “Very Online,” often borrowing the visual language (and in-jokes) of gaming overlays or graffiti culture. It is designed to be displayed on a Twitch stream, not just stored in a pantry.

The Trajectory: You see this in the Jack Link’s x Mr. Beast collaboration or Ghost cereal (which also fits in Responsible Regression). Ghost, which still has a foot in the body-building Anabolic theme, realized that to go mainstream, they had to stop selling “Muscle” and start selling “Cool.” It’s protein as merchandise. Brands must now align their protein source and format with specific subcultures. The Carnivore Bro, the Wellness Girlie, and the Discord Gamer all need different totems. The message is: I am signaling my tribe.

Pick a Lane

The mistake most CPG brands make is thinking they just need to “add protein” to win. That worked in 2015. Today, you must decide which game you are playing, which theme to follow.

Are you building a temple (Anabolic)? Tuning an engine (Metabolic)? Silencing a craving (Silencer)? Soothing a fear (Regression)? Or signaling a belief (Symbolic)?

Pick one or blend them intentionally. In a peak protein world, “good source of protein” is no longer a value proposition, it’s just table stakes. You need to pick your lane and your strategy.

The $500M Bet on Cottage Cheese

Last week, L Catterton (the private equity giant backed by luxury titan LVMH) acquired a majority stake in Good Culture, valuing the cottage cheese brand at over $500 million (potentially $1B with added capacity).

If you haven’t been paying attention to the category, your first reaction is likely confusion. Cottage cheese was the “Diet Plate” of the 1970s, a depressing scoop of lumpy milk served on a pineapple ring to signal deprivation. It seems unsexy, texture-challenged, and historically stagnant.

While there has been an uptick in more people eating cups of cottage cheese in search of more protein, does this really justify a half a billion-dollar valuation? At roughly 4-5x sales, L Catterton is pricing in a future where cottage cheese isn’t just a resurgent category but a platform, a high-protein chassis that anchors entirely new product lines. That’s a bet on transformation, not just growth.

Why is the conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton chasing curds? Because they see a brand that has accidentally solved a sensory problem the dairy industry has been banging its head against for 15 years.

The Failure of “Savory Yogurt”

For a decade and a half, the dairy industry has desperately tried to force Greek Yogurt into everything (see Chobani’s failed attempt at dips or sauces). We’ve endured attempts at Yogurt Ranch, Yogurt ‘Butter,’ and pizza doughs made with Greek yogurt. Yes, it works in some desserts and in cuisines where yogurt is native (think Middle Eastern dips and Indian sides) but it falls flat when we are told to sub yogurt in for the bechamel sauce in baked ziti.

It never worked, and the reason is simple chemistry: acid.

Yogurt is fermented to be tart, Greek yogurt even more so. That flavor and tang, at least to a Western palate, has too long been associated with “morning,” “fruit,” and “sweet.” When you try to move it to cheesy, creamy and savory dishes, that acidity screams “health food substitution.” It always feels like a healthy dupe.

Cottage cheese is different. It isn’t so much acidic as it is briny and cheesy. Its flavor profile mimics fat (cream cheese, mayonnaise, heavy cream, ) rather than fermentation.

From Lumps to Lard

The $500M valuation validates a shift we’ve been tracking: Cottage cheese has graduated from a finished dish (a bowl of curds you eat with a spoon) to a functional ingredient (a neutral base used to construct other foods).

This transition was engineered not by food scientists, but by TikTok.

While brands like Breakstone’s spent decades trying to convince us to “love the lumps,” consumers realized the lumps were a bug, not a feature. They threw the tub in a blender and discovered something the industry missed: permissible fat.

When blended, cottage cheese possesses the mouthfeel of full-fat dip and the flavor neutrality of heavy cream, but with the nutritional profile of a steak. It allows the consumer to decouple the texture of indulgence from the guilt of indulgence.

But there is friction: the blender hack works for the converted. The cottage cheese evangelists on TikTok are a self-selecting group willing to add a step most consumers won’t. Scaling this insight requires Good Culture to do the blending for them (see Etelka above): pre-smoothed formats, squeezable pouches, protein-rich sauces. The valuation isn’t a bet on changing consumer behavior; it’s a bet on removing the behavior change entirely.

Visible Nutrition

You might be thinking this sounds like the “cauliflower-everything” era. You’re close, but I think the comparison undersells the shift.

Cauliflower-everything was about hiding nutrition, a defensive play where the vegetable disappeared so you wouldn’t notice it. Cottage cheese is an additive play: it brings protein, creaminess, indulgence (and probiotics for Good Culture) simultaneously. You’re not disguising a compromise, so much as you’re stacking benefits. That is a significantly more durable value proposition.

The future of this category isn’t selling a better cup of curds (although blended cottage cheese as a yogurt fighter will definitely be in the mix), it’s selling high-protein, pre-blended bases and high-protein cottage cheese versions of quesos, alfredo sauces, and savory dips that do a better job of tasting like cheddar, cream, and ranch.

The ‘No Isolate’ Future

This sensory advantage is colliding with a massive cultural tailwind: the backlash against Ultra-Processed Foods (UPF).

We are entering an era where over-processing is seen as a liability. A high-protein pasta sauce is desired, but not if that protein count is achieved through fractionated soy, gums, and whey isolates.

This is Good Culture’s specific moat. Their premise (clean-label, pasture-raised, probiotic, whole-food creaminess) captures the protein (and gut-friendly) trend without the “industrial” baggage. Cottage cheese is legible as food in a way that pea protein isolate isn’t.

This matters more now than it would have two years ago. With MAHA-adjacent rhetoric gaining traction and “ultra-processed” becoming toxic language in wellness circles, whole-food protein matrices have structural advantages that fractionated ingredients can’t match.

The L Catterton Playbook

L Catterton’s track record clarifies what a $500M bet actually means. Look at their exits: Cholula to McCormick. Plum Organics to Campbell’s. Sweet Leaf Tea to Nestlé.

The pattern isn’t just premiumization, its acquiring authentic challenger brands, scaling them into platforms, and exiting to strategics who need the positioning but can’t build it organically inside their walls.

Critically, the same managing partner, Andrew Taub, led the Kodiak Cakes acquisition in 2021. That’s instructive because Kodiak wasn’t just a pancake mix company, it was a protein-forward chassis that extended into frozen waffles, oatmeal, baking mixes and snacks. The playbook was category expansion powered by a single nutritional premise: whole grains plus protein.

Good Culture can run the same play across the creamy, savory, protein-dense landscape, a territory arguably larger than pancake mix.

Ring 1: Core Dairy (Cottage cheese -> Sour cream -> (Reg/blended)Cream cheese).

Ring 2: Savory Sauces and Bases (Blended queso, Alfredo sauces, High-protein dips).

Ring 3: Co-Branding (A “Made with Good Culture” callout on a protein-forward chilled/frozen meal).

The Future

The dairy industry spent fifteen years trying to force a tangy, acidic yogurt base into savory applications, wondering why consumers rejected the ‘healthy swap.’ Cottage cheese looks like it might be able to solve the sensory problem that yogurt couldn’t.

L Catterton isn’t paying $500 million for a better cup of curds, they are betting that Good Culture can do for dairy what Kodiak did for dry goods: transform a commodity ingredient into a functional, protein-dense, probiotic delivery platform that can stretch across the entire grocery store.

Sweet Strategy in a Time of Ozempic

If you sell nutrient-dense, protein-focused foods in early 2026, you are likely feeling good. The market is effectively doing your marketing for you.

However, for those managing categories like cookies, ice creams, candies, and cakes, the mood is decidedly different. You are facing a pincer movement. On one side, new regulatory guidelines are making sugar public enemy #1. On the other, a rapidly growing cohort of consumers is taking a drug that chemically extinguishes the desire for your product.

When you are staring down a structural shift of this magnitude, the pressure to react is immense. In this high-stakes environment, I am seeing even the smartest strategy teams slip into a trap of binary thinking.

While these companies are run by sophisticated teams, the institutional momentum seems to be forcing sweet portfolios into one of two distinct, and dangerous, camps.

Camp A is the “Indulgence Fundamentalist.” This is the “wait-and-see” faction. Their logic is that we have survived Atkins, Keto, and Paleo, and that ultimately, biology beats ideology. People will always need joy. The strategy is effectively status quo. The risk: They are betting that human nature will defeat pharmacology. That is a dangerous wager when the chemistry is this effective.

Camp B is the “Protein Washer.” This is the rush to reformulate everything into a “Better-For-You” profile to chase the health halo. The directive is simple: “Add 10-20g of protein to existing SKUs.” The risk: This creates a product that is neither a good treat nor a good supplement. It is a “frankencookie” that alienates the core consumer without fooling the health consumer.

I worry that too many sweet brands are settling for these edges because they represent the path of least resistance. But strategy is rarely found at the extremes.

Strategy, at its core, is the act of making a choice. It is deciding what to do, and crucially, what not to do. But you cannot make a strategic choice if you don’t know the full menu of options. If your only two moves are “do nothing” or “turn a brownie into a protein bar,” you aren’t being strategic. You are reacting.

To help widen the aperture, my team and I developed a framework (see below) to map the full territory of response options specifically for sweet brands in the GLP-1 era. We found that the opportunities aren’t just in changing the recipe. They are in re-engineering the permission structure, the portfolio balance, and the cultural role of the brand. Note: I’ve redacted areas and additional columns to be ‘client only’ but you get the idea.

Below is a glimpse of four distinct strategic pathways from the framework that offer a more nuanced way forward.

1. Biology-Aligned Indulgence

The current “Better-For-You” playbook focuses almost exclusively on macronutrients (sugar out, protein in). This ignores the physical reality of the medicated body. GLP-1 drugs function by delaying gastric emptying, meaning heavy, dense fats and proteins can sit in the stomach for hours, triggering nausea and discomfort.

The Play: Don’t just design for the label; design for the gut. We need to engineer “Gentle Textures” (fast-dissolving, aerated formats) that provide high sensory payoff without the gastric load. Think of a not too sweet wafer that dissolves instantly or a meringue-based truffle that delivers intense flavor but vanishes on the tongue. This allows the consumer to participate in the category without the immediate physical penalty of “heaviness.”

2. Permission Engineering

The GLP-1 user is often the household “Gatekeeper.” When a parent goes on the drug, they often remove sweets from the pantry because of their lack of interest. This kills volume even if the rest of the family isn’t medicated. You cannot win a battle against their willpower, so you must change the battlefield.

The Play: Execute a “Shared Moments” pivot. Reposition the brand away from “solo snacking” (which the Gatekeeper is avoiding) and toward “group connection” (which the Gatekeeper values). Shift the format from personal consumption to gifting, hosting, or ritual. If a parent won’t buy a bag of cookies for themselves, they will still buy a premium “Family Movie Night” box. By framing the treat as a tool for social bonding, you bypass the veto. The product stays in the cart because it is “for us,” not “for me.”

3. Functional Justification

GLP-1 users are often eating at a severe calorie deficit, leading to hyper-awareness of nutrient density and concerns about muscle loss and hydration. In this environment, “empty calories” are the first thing cut. To survive, an indulgence needs a job description.

The Play: Give the product a “Functional Justification” so it earns its rent in a constrained diet. This isn’t just about slamming 20g of protein into a brownie, it is about solving specific side-effect friction points. Consider a high-end chocolate fortified with electrolytes for hydration support or a treat designed with nausea-soothing ginger. You aren’t selling a vitamin, you are selling a “permissible treat” that happens to solve a problem the user is currently fighting.

4. Portfolio Defense

The GLP-1 consumer journey is rarely a straight line. Users cycle on and off the drug, plateau, and see their appetites fluctuate. A “sugar-only” portfolio is a volatility trap that leaves your revenue at the mercy of their prescription refill.

The Play: Use “Portfolio Hedging” to capture the consumer where they go when they aren’t eating sweets. Instead of forcing your sweet brand to be healthy, extend the brand equity into adjacent categories. If you sell cookies, acquire or incubate a high-fiber cracker brand or a targeted supplement line. Build an ecosystem that allows you to monetize both the “off-drug” and “on-drug” phases of the consumer lifecycle simultaneously. Ensure that when they reject sugar, they don’t reject your company.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Spiked Ade; Carnivore Crisps Beef & Organ Blend; Jawcko Jawline Chewing Gum; ALPHA Nootropic Pouches

The Billion-Dollar “Bro Optimization” Economy You’re Ignoring

If you look at the launch of Spiked Ade (a non-carbonated, vodka-based beverage with “sports drink” flavors) and roll your eyes, you need to look harder.

To the culinary mind, Spiked Ade looks like an abomination. To the emerging “Optimization Economy,” it is brilliant product-market fit.

Modern CPG innovation has a problem in that it is often too reliant on a culinary lens, believing that the only thing that matters is Flavor and Heritage (craft stories, origin ingredients, sensory complexity). Yes, those are important to many of the Whole Foods/co-op crowd, but meanwhile, a massive demographic of young men is fixated on System Management. They don’t view food/bev as a source of comfort or culture but as input to the perfect body ROI.

And this isn’t a niche internet subculture. The male wellness market hit $66 billion in 2024. Protein product sales have doubled in five years. “Biohacking” supplements are a $22 billion category growing at 15% annually. The optimization consumer is here, they’re spending aggressively, and they’re largely invisible to innovation teams still workshopping “elevated snacking occasions.”

The Three Faces of Optimization

What makes this economy easy to dismiss is that it doesn’t look like one thing. It’s actually three distinct consumer logics sharing a common rejection of ‘Consumption as Experience’ in favor of ‘Consumption as Calibration.’ Understanding which logic you’re dealing with determines your product strategy.

1. Functional Optimization: “Make the vice work harder”

Spiked Ade isn’t inventing a product. They are commercializing a behavior. They looked at the “Borg” (Blackout Rage Gallon: the college dorm habit of mixing water, vodka, and electrolytes in a jug) and canned it. They recognized this consumer wanted alcohol velocity (the buzz) combined with risk mitigation (the hydration) but had outgrown the behavior of mixing fluids in a dirty milk jug.

This is the most accessible segment for mainstream CPG: take an existing indulgence and engineer in a functional alibi. The consumer still wants the experience, but needs to justify it through optimization language: protein beer, collagen wine, electrolyte cocktails. The innovation model is additive (i.e., layer benefits onto familiar formats).

2. Purity Optimization: “Reject the corrupted system”

Young men are bypassing plant-based meats to buy Beef Organ Flour and Carnivore Chips. They aren’t looking for a snack. They are solving for hormonal health, biohacking testosterone, and rejecting “seed oils” as a system corruptor.

This consumer views modern processed food as fundamentally broken, not inadequate, but actively hostile to human biology. The value proposition is subtraction: what have you removed? The shorter the ingredient list, the more “ancestral” the sourcing, the better. This segment is ideologically driven and will pay significant premiums for products that signal purity (see rise in colostrum).

3. Aesthetic Optimization: “Engineer the visible output”

Brands like Jawliner sell “Hard Gum” (flavorless, tough mastic gum) designed to exercise masseter muscles. It started as “Looksmaxxing” for teenage boys, but it’s rapidly becoming a mainstream fix for “Ozempic Face.”

This consumer treats the body as a visual project with measurable KPIs: jawline definition, skin clarity, shoulder-to-waist ratio. Products succeed here by targeting a specific visible outcome with quasi-scientific plausibility. The innovation model is hyper-specific: one product, one aesthetic result, one measurable claim.

Why This Matters for Your Pipeline

These three segments share a foundational belief: food and beverage are inputs to a system, not experiences to be savored. But they require completely different innovation approaches.

Functional optimization can absorb existing portfolio products with reformulation. Purity optimization requires stripped-down SKUs with radical ingredient simplicity (and probably a separate brand). Aesthetic optimization demands specificity that traditional CPG struggles with (i.e., you’re not selling a snack, you’re selling a jawline).

The common thread? These consumers are aggressive early adopters. They are signaling a shift in how an entire generation evaluates food value. And they’re doing it loudly, in communities your trend reports probably aren’t monitoring.

Your next big breakthrough product isn’t always flowing from Michelin menus or flavor trend reports. Sometimes it’s hiding in the friction points 22-year-old guys are trying to solve in the gym, in Reddit forums, and on supplement websites.

Stop dismissing these consumers. Start mapping which optimization logic applies to your categories. The Bro Optimization Economy is here and its spilling over into mainstream.

IRL

GUT REACTION

Products: Sun-Maid Cinnamon Raisin Apple Juice; Beyond Immerse Beverage; Van Holten’s Pickled Eggs; Little Debbie Ice Cream Sandwiches; Matter Formula

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Tech startup Hyphen is bringing AI to the lunch line — with help from Cava and Chipotle

NYC Wegmans is storing biometric data on shoppers’ eyes, voices and faces

McDonald’s Rival Jollibee Soars on Plan to List Global Unit

ALDI US Doubles Down on Growth in 2026 with Plans to Open 180 New Stores

Diageo Is Said to Weigh Options for China Assets Including Sale

Alcohol Use May Be Declining, But We Still Want That Buzz

Amazon takes on Walmart with new store concept

Del Monte Foods to sell core businesses

Trump signs bill allowing schools to offer whole and 2% milk

Humble Hershey’s Gets a Marketing Makeover

‘Highly-processed’ or ‘ultra-processed’? New dietary guidelines reignite a definitional food fight

Abandoning packaging sustainability is a ‘serious strategic miscalculation’: Bain

Slack-fill suit puts cereal packaging practices in the legal spotlight

Save A Lot to remove artificial food dyes from private label products

Progresso brings back its viral Soup Drops candy

Interesting

Wegovy daily pill now available: How to get it, how much it costs

The Newest Health Trend Is Tracking Your Pee

Why I’m Eating More Carbs in 2026

Kennedy’s nutrition guidelines raise questions

OpenAI adds ChatGPT Health for medical questions

ChatGPT to start showing users ads based on their conversations

No whey: why the price of protein powder is surging in Australia

The New Old Age

“Are You Dead?”: The viral Chinese app for young people living alone

More Americans are living alone than ever before

The Swedish startup bringing full-body health scanning to the US

Why Anthropic’s new ‘Cowork’ could be the first really useful general-purpose AI agent

Beyond Productivity: Measuring the Real Value of AI

A ‘Gen Z Retirement Home’ Is Now Open in Malaysia for Burned-Out Young Adults

Fun & Odd

You should start taking “Fart Walks”

Why does orange juice taste bad after you brush your teeth?

California startup to launch 4,000 satellite mirrors in 2026 to offer ‘sunlight on demand’

In medieval France, murderous pigs faced trial and execution

My Sparkling and Surreal Experience As a Water-Tasting Judge

Why does space smell like steak? (video)

This YouTuber Claims He’s Cracked Coca-Cola’s 139-Year-Old Secret Recipe

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Wellness 2026: Enter the Matrix

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 04 Jan 2026 23:35:51 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Granola Gambit: Why cereal leaders are turning to clusters and crumbles

Matrix Thinking: How consumers are reconsidering what is healthy

Gummies Everywhere: Why we are chewing our health now

Inconvenient Indulgence: Could making treats more difficult make them better?

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Subscribe now

Products: Cheerios Granola; Rind Granola Squares; Nature’s Garden Clusters; Kind Max Protein Granola; Honey Bunches of Oats Protein; Post Premier Protein Granola

Big Cereal’s Granola Gambit

There has been a slew of big (and little) names in cereal launching granola recently, with more to come in 2026. Just walk the ‘cereal’ aisle at Costco and , at least in my local store, it’s 90% granola. While it’s easy to chalk this up to a wellness refresh for a category that’s often seen as too processed and too sugary, I think it’s much bigger (and smarter) than that.

Granola is potentially an escape hatch for cereal makers from a declining category.

The Subtle Rebranding of Cereal

Granola lets legacy players keep the factory and the supply chain while psychologically exiting the perception of “kids’ cereal” altogether. It doesn’t feel like cereal, even though it is. By transitioning to granola, brands are striving for a format liberation.

Cereal demanded a bowl, milk, a table, and a slow morning. Granola works dry, by the handful, sprinkled, and saved for later. It survives outside the ritual Big Cereal built its empire on.

What Granola Actually Solves For

1. Unprocessed Theater: You can see oats, nuts, seeds, clusters, or even cereal pieces. It is processed food that doesn’t look processed. You can visually decode it. That’s the opposite of extruded puffs or flakes that require industrial imagination to understand. Big Cereal is borrowing farmers-market cues at industrial scale, a response to ultra-processed discourse without fighting it head-on (see Wellness 2026 below). Granola feels honest because it looks unfinished.

2. Texture as Value: Texture has become a CPG star lately, and granola is a great way to help cereal get in on the trend. Hard clusters, uneven breakage, chew resistance, audible crunch. Granola isn’t just a flavor, it’s a form of acoustic entertainment. It allows cereal brands to enter the yogurt aisle not as a competitor, but as the necessary textural contrast to a soft category.

3. The “Moral” Sugar Swap: A bowl of Frosted Flakes feels like a lapse (even with 25% less sugar). In contrast, a handful of granola feels virtuous. Why? Because granola has successfully rebranded sugar as “energy.” It swaps the refined sugar stigma for the halo of honey, maple, or agave. It allows the brand to maintain the palatability of the product while changing the moral framing.

The Problem: It’s Not Enough

Will this work? Yes, for about 18 months. It helps Big Cereal defend against private label and allows legacy brands to trade up pricing for a smaller bag.

Using existing cereal equity to make granola is novel and incremental, but for how long? Yes, it serves as a brand bridge to the granola category, but it doesn’t solve cereal’s core problem. It solves immediate perception (which may have a halo?) but likely won’t stop long-term decline unless it addresses consumers’ evolving needs.

The Real Lateral Solves

If cereal wants a future via granola (or similar) format, they need to consider the tailwinds that could make granola a 2026+ solution:

1. The Solid-State Supplement

The aging population and the Ozempic crowd share a specific need: they have lower appetites but higher nutritional requirements. They can’t stomach a giant bowl of flakes and milk.

The lateral move here is to use the granola format to create high-efficiency nutrition. Right now, granola is calorie dense, not nutrient dense, but that could change. Imagine a small-format, quarter-cup serving that delivers 20g of protein, high fiber, and a full (natural) vitamin stack (you might need to move to grain-free to do this).

But don’t stop at generic wellness. The real defensibility comes from precision segmentation: menopause support clusters (calcium, magnesium, phytoestrogens), athletic recovery formulations (high protein, electrolytes, tart cherry), cognitive function blends for aging boomers (omega-3s, B vitamins), or genuine low-glycemic options for metabolic health. This isn’t wellness theater, it’s functional food that uses industrial capacity to deliver specific nutrients for specific populations.

This makes cereal/granola more on the level of Premier Protein shakes, AG1, and multivitamins, not puffed grain. It leverages the processing capabilities of these massive companies to create harder working density, not just calories. And it segments the market in a way that justifies premium pricing through efficacy, not just vibes.

2. The Premiumization Escape

Granola has the potential to fully lean into its indulgent side, while charging top dollar.

Think: granola made with actual butter (not oil), real wildflower honey (not “honey flavor”), visible chunks of premium chocolate, whole roasted nuts, pure vanilla extract. Charge $12-15 for a small bag. Market it as a snack or topping somewhere between artisan chocolates and specialty nut mixes, a textural luxury you eat by the handful or use to elevate other foods (you already see players like Purely Elizabeth doing this well).

This works because it plays into existing behavior (people already snack on granola and use it as a topper) while completely reframing the value proposition. You’re not buying cereal’s cheaper cousin. You’re buying an ingredient so good it makes your yogurt, ice cream, or cottage cheese worth eating. Or you’re eating it straight because it’s actually delicious, not because you’re trying to be healthy.

Products: Joe Wicks’ Killer Protein Bar; Crepini Protein Pancakes; Hey!Hunger Veggie Patties; KIND Protein Max Bars; Realsy Peanut Butter Filled Dates at Costco; Chiquita SNAX Plantain Chips; Celo Grass-Fed Whey Protein Bars; US House Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act

Wellness 2026: Enter the Matrix

I’m beginning this January with a realization that’s hard to shake. The wellness trends ahead may look like a 2025 rehash, but a year of innovation projects has taught me that something is different for 2026. There is a seismic consumer and industry shift about to begin.

For decades, the food industry operated under a simple premise: that health was a chemistry problem. Hit the right macros, swap the bad ingredients for good ones, and consumers would reward you with their wallets. The industry is very good at this. We stripped fat from milk, isolated protein from whey, and engineered products that checked every nutritional box on the label.

But somewhere between the keto craze and the Ozempic headlines, a shift started happening. Consumers are beginning to question the underlying premise. The idea that you can optimize your way to health through nutritional accounting is starting to lose its grip.

Consumers are shifting their thinking from chemistry to physics

Consumers are increasingly asking not just “What’s in this?” (chemistry) but “What happened to this?” (physics). The distinction matters. A protein bar with 20g of protein from soy isolate isn’t necessarily the same as a piece of chicken, even if the numbers match on paper. One is food that’s been deconstructed and recombined. The other maintains its original structure. The matrix (the physical structure of the food itself) appears to matter more than we’ve been willing to admit.

This isn’t just wellness trend chasing. There’s real science behind it. A whole food, like an almond, is treated differently by the body when its been mechanically processed. Satiety, as well, isn’t purely about volume, it’s a hormonal response triggered by breaking down complex structures. A smoothie with 500 calories can leave you feeling hungry quickly, while whole foods with the same calorie count tend to keep you satisfied longer.

GLP-1 drugs have brought this conversation into sharper focus. As more people experience what sustained satiety feels like, they’re starting to ask why packaged food doesn’t always deliver the same result, and that message is getting amplified to non-GLP-1 users. The answer is creating some uncomfortable questions for the “better-for-you” category: have we been optimizing for the wrong variables?

This isn’t hypothetical anymore. The policy shift is real.

The UK’s #1 fitness and nutrition influencer Joe Wicks recently launched his Killer Bar to protest and raise awareness about ultra-processed foods and regulation. It blew up on social media. On this side of pond, the latest sneak peek at the FDA Dietary Guidelines emphasizes whole foods over nutritional optimization. The MAHA movement, whatever you think of its politics, is centering its food philosophy around processing levels rather than nutrient profiles. When regulatory guidance starts aligning with cultural momentum, smart companies pay attention.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: protein bars, fortified snacks, cereals and meals are in the crosshairs

These categories were built on chemistry thinking. They exist because we got very good at isolating protein, adding fiber, and engineering specific macro profiles. But that’s precisely what makes them vulnerable now. The consumer’s thought-process is evolving: If it looks heavily processed, it probably is. And if it’s heavily processed, maybe it’s not actually “healthy” regardless of what the label claims.

This creates a genuine challenge for innovation. Modern food R&D is built largely on these techniques: isolating, concentrating, recombining. It’s how you achieve margin targets and shelf-life requirements. But these same techniques are starting to register as warning signs rather than selling points.

The opportunity may lie in processing philosophy.

There’s a spectrum here that’s worth exploring. Fermenting isn’t the same as extruding. Cold-pressing isn’t the same as isolating. Slow-baking isn’t the same as puffing. The method is starting to matter, not just the ingredient deck. Transparency about how you make something is becoming increasingly relevant alongside what you make it from.

KIND built its brand on visible, whole nuts you could see and count. They were ahead of their time, I think. That’s why I was surprised with last week’s Protein Max bars using soy isolate to get to 20g (literally the opposite of the matrix nutritional tailwinds). Yes, they are playing the ‘more protein’ battle at shelf and they want the higher margins possible in being in the ‘performance bar’ category (especially at c-stores), but it raises questions about brand consistency. They are now aligning with chemistry thinking when their equity was built on structure.

The lesson here isn’t that innovation is wrong or that processing is bad. It’s that the lens through which consumers evaluate “healthy” is evolving. Most consumers aren’t there yet, but you can feel the pendulum swinging. Structure is becoming part of the conversation alongside ingredients. So for awhile we’ll be in this chemistry-physics hybrid. However, there is no getting around that the matrix conversations are increasing.

Even brands that think they’re immune (the ones with clean labels and better-for-you positioning) need to wake up. If your product depends on isolated ingredients and engineered textures, you’re playing a game where the rules are shifting underneath you.

The Gummy-fication of Everything: Why We Are Eating Our Medicine

It isn’t your imagination; everything is available as a gummy now. From creatine and protein to melatonin and vitamins. If it was available as a pill or powder, it’s now a gummy.

But if you ask a consumer why they switched, they will give you a polite, logical answer: “I can’t swallow pills” or “These are just easier to take.”

I don’t (completely) believe them.

The explosion of the functional gummy isn’t just about “pill fatigue.” It is about a fundamental shift in how modern adults relate to their own mortality, their pleasure centers, and their need for control.

Here is the real anthropology of the gummy aisle.

1. Optimization vs. Submission

We have a problem with pills. Culturally, a pill is a symbol of submission. You take a pill because a doctor told you to, because you have a diagnosis, or because something is broken. A pill is a reminder of your own mortality. It says: I am a patient. I’ve had consumers tell me they avoid pills until they absolutely can’t anymore because “once you start taking a pill, you’ll be taking that pill the rest of your life!”

A gummy flips the power dynamic. You don’t take a gummy because you are sick, you take it because you are upgrading. (How can something with such a ‘fun’ form be medicine?). It is an act of optimization, not medication. A pill demands compliance, a gummy offers agency. In a world where we feel out of control, the gummy is a small, tasty act of rebellion against the medical industrial complex.

2. Trojan Horse Confectionery

Let’s be honest about the nutrition of a modern professional. We demonize sugar, we track macros, and we perform “wellness” for our peers. But the reptilian brain still wants a treat.

Functional gummies are the perfect loophole. They are a Trojan Horse Confectionery.

They allow high-functioning, health-conscious adults to eat fruit snacks at 8:00 AM without breaking character. If you eat a handful of gummy bears before a meeting, you seem childish. If you eat two “cognitive support” gummies (which are largely gelatin and sugar), you are biohacking. The gummy provides the “alibi” for the indulgence.

3. The “Compliance Hack”

The dirty secret of the supplement industry is that people don’t always finish the bottle. The “Compliance Curve” for standard multivitamins is abysmal because the reward (better health) is delayed by months, while the friction (swallowing a horse pill) is immediate.

Gummies hack the habit loop by moving the reward inside the routine. You get the dopamine hit (flavor/texture) at the exact moment of consumption. This helps guarantee that you finish the bottle.

4. Sensory Feedback is the New Efficacy

A pill disappears instantly. You swallow it, and the experience is over. A gummy forces you to engage. The chew, the resistance, the flavor release: it creates a “moment.” We confuse this sensory input with effectiveness. Because we can taste the vitamin (or at least the citric acid masking it), we subconsciously believe it is working (which is great for nutrients that typically are not ‘felt,’ like those that help with immunity).

Are We Reaching Peak Gummy? What’s Next?

The gummy market is reaching saturation. While consumers might like gummies, few want to take 10 a day. The real opportunity lies in applying the psychology of the gummy to the next generation of formats.

The lesson of the gummy is that consumers are desperate for their health routines to be entertaining. They want “Health-tainment.”

The Next Moves:

Texture Innovation: Move beyond gelatin. Look at functional popping candy (sensory explosion), fast-melt strips (tech-forward delivery), or gels/goo packs (the quick intact route)
The “Adult” Gummy: The current aesthetic is like basic 1980s Haribo. There is white space for complex formats (e.g., Nerds Gummy Clusters) that really explore texture, or “savory” adult profiles (e.g., bitter citrus, herbal botanicals, or spiced formats) that signal “potency” rather than just “candy.”
The Feedback Loop: Beyond just entertainment, strengthening the feedback loop will lead more consumers to see your brand has ‘the one that works.’ Engineer in more sensations that give the feeling that ‘something’ is working at the moment they take it. Think tingling sensations (e.g., buzz buttons or Sichuan peppercorns), aromatic release when a bottle is opened, or delayed-release sensations (a cooling effect in the stomach) that let the user “feel” the product working.

Products: Oreo Muffins; Reese’s PB&J Filled Pretzels; Milky Way All Caramel; Ben & Jerry’s Cookie Dough Bars; Nice! Cinnabon Sweet & Salty Mix; Dairy Queen Snowdrift Blizzard; Sour Patch Kids Chews; Nutella Ice Cream Cones; Oreo Chocolate Crème Minis

Why CPG Needs More Inconvenient Indulgence

We have optimized the soul out of snacking. In the CPG industry’s relentless pursuit of “frictionless” consumption, we have turned indulgence (historically a rare pleasure enjoyed only on special occasions) into a relentless, ambient hum.

When a triple-chocolate, gooey caramel truffle is available at every register, costs $3, and can be DoorDashed in 15 minutes, it is no longer special, it is... boring.

The uncomfortable truth is that pleasure requires a cost. Not just a financial cost, but a cost in time, effort, or risk. Otherwise, it’s too easy, too every day to be ‘indulgent.’ The future of high-value indulgence isn’t in making treats easier, it is in making them more ‘difficult.’

Here are my top of mind thoughts in how we could dismantle the cult of convenience and make products indulgent again:

1. The Rise of “Hostile” User Experience

We must stop viewing convenience as the ultimate virtue. Modern CPG design treats the consumer’s time as a problem to be solved, rushing them to the finish line of consumption. But true indulgence has always been defined by the deliberate rejection of efficiency.

Consider the tea ceremony or the slow-cooked meal. An industrial engineer might look at these and see “waste” (it’s inefficient calorie delivery!). But the human participant sees ritual. The value lies not in the outcome, but in the process.

To reclaim value, brands must embrace performative inefficiency. We need products that refuse to be instant. Imagine a confection that is effectively locked behind a ritual: a product that requires 20 minutes of specific, skilled temperature manipulation by the consumer to “unlock” the flavor.

This isn’t bad design; it’s a re-humanization of the product. By forcing the consumer to trade their labor for the reward, we transform a mindless snack into a meditative event. The “work” isn’t a cost the consumer pays, it is the experience they are buying.

2. Radical Ephemerality (The Ticking Clock)

The industry worships shelf-stability. We use nitrogen flushing and preservatives to ensure a snack tastes the same on Day 1 as on Day 300. But in the natural world, immortality implies artificiality. A ripe peach is luxurious because its window of perfection is fleeting. A Twinkie is ‘cheap’ because it outlives us all (not true, but that’s the perception).

The counter-trend is something we could call Planned Spoilage. We should be designing supply chains for “Live” snacks: products with active enzymes or fleeting structures that offer a divine sensory experience for exactly four hours post-purchase (or post-opening) before degrading into an inedible mess.

This weaponizes loss aversion. If a consumer knows the product will “self-destruct” in a few hours, the consumption becomes urgent, focused and special. It forces an appointment with the food, breaking the zombie-like grazing habits of modern eating.

There are so many other ways to do this but my point is, if we want to save indulgence and differentiate, we must stop asking how to make our products more accessible, and start asking how to make them more demanding.

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Carbone Cacio e Pepe Alfredo Sauce; SimranCooks The Red Drizzler; Kirkland Canada Protein Shake; Trader Joes Prebiotic Soda; Laird Superfood Creamers; Kin Slurp Yogurt.

GUT REACTION

Products: ESN Lemon Pepper Seasoning with Creatine; Skinergy; Barebell’s Milk Drinks; Nonni Premium Electrolytes; M&S Nutrient Dense Line; Co-op GoodFuel

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Pepsi Worked to Keep Prices Higher at Retailers to Protect Walmart, FTC Found

Luckin Coffee interested in Nestlé’s Blue Bottle stake

Whole Foods to deploy novel food recycling tech

Aldi goes on another store opening tear

How America Turned on Starbucks

China hits EU dairy products with provisional duties up to 42.7%

General Mills says price cuts are working

The ultraprocessed food makers have an answer for RFK Jr.

Sam’s Club Is Beating Costco at Its Own Game—in China

How an Office Romance Sparked an Overhaul at Nestlé

Target’s beaten-down stock gets a lift after report of ‘significant investment’ from Toms Capital

Starbucks doesn’t want to be on every street in New York and Los Angeles anymore

Shoppers plan to spend more on groceries next year: report

World’s largest chain, with everything <$5, has opened stores in US

SNAP bans on candy, soda to start in five US states

McDonald’s faces lawsuit over McRib’s alleged misleading branding

107% tariffs on Italian pasta no longer set to take effect

Sprinkles to close all retail stores

Interesting

The jobs where people are using AI the most

2026 Prediction Bingo Card

Canadian officials say US health institutions no longer dependable for accurate information

Weight Watchers’s big rebrand is a bid to win the Ozempic era

‘Let them’, creatine and fibermaxxing: the biggest wellness trends of 2025

Inside MAHA’s 2026 food agenda

Discount stores are having a moment in America, drawing high- and low-income consumers alike

The Booming Business in Drinking Yourself to Sleep

Eli Lilly says obesity pill helps maintain weight loss after patients switch from Wegovy, Zepbound

Research Finds Benefits From Cutting Saturated Fats, as RFK Jr. Promotes Them

Study: High-fat diets make liver cells more likely to become cancerous

Consumer goods firms cut CEO tenures short in push for growth

Can You Get Addicted to a GLP-1?

Food becoming more calorific but less nutritious due to rising carbon dioxide

Are these AI prompts damaging your thinking skills?

The Strange Case of the Russian Snickers in U.K. Convenience Shops

People Who Drink Bottled Water on a Daily Basis Ingest 90,000 More Microplastic Particles Each Year

Fun & Odd

The best chocolate chip cookie recipe, according to science

B-kyuu gurume: Japan’s cult of perfect cheap food

People Are Paying to Get Their Chatbots High on ‘Drugs’

A beer vaccine

Wine moms have a new holiday cocktail: vanilla ice cream and red wine

Parents Are Going Broke From Their Kids’ Sushi Obsession

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2026 Predictions Edition

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 23:44:29 GMT

In case you missed it, here is previous edition of FoodStuff.

It is that time of year again. Time to speculate on what the New Year has in store for food and beverage. For those new to my year-end prediction editions, here are the ground rules:

I ignore the obvious. You did not come here for a list of trending flavors or viral TikTok hacks. I try to push the envelope and identify the quiet, structural shifts that will catch the industry off guard.
The format has changed. Unlike previous years, I am not splitting this into two issues. The signals for 2026 are too interconnected to separate, so I am delivering them in one cohesive, dense analysis. Buckle up. This is a long post.
The goal is utility, not perfection. I do not expect every single one of these to manifest fully in 2026. These are trajectories, not distinct events. Use these predictions to stress-test your current strategy. If I make you rethink a “safe” bet, I have done my job.

Talk to you again in the New Year! If you enjoyed FoodStuff this year, think about forwarding it to a friend!

Products: Air-Up aroma enhanced hydration; Day Guard Hangover protection; Vybey Hydration+; Wet Hydration; Radnor Hydrate; Sukr Electrolyte suckers; Loom Hydration; Alice Zen-X Stress-relief mushroom chocolates; Recess Peppermint; Bark ‘Tini; Wavy Daze; WeNatal (protein for parents); Boostcous; Flock x Benihana Chicken Skin Crisps

Wellness Predictions

The Era of High-Fidelity Hydration In 2026, I think we’re moving from the “volume era” (e.g., giant Stanley cups) to what I’m calling the “precision era” of hydration. A recent 84.51 survey found that 64% of consumers listed “stay hydrated” as their top wellness goal, beating out eating more vegetables or avoiding sugar. Why? Because hydration is the ultimate baby-step to wellness hack. I think water is about to become the Trojan Horse for broader supplementation. Expect to see multi-functional stacks (electrolytes bundled with protein, BCAAs, prebiotics, etc.) and weird new formats like gels and “eatable water” that turn drinking into a precise, nutrient-dense event. We’re basically medicalizing moisture. I think the category will split into five specific micro-need states: Cognitive Hydration (focus), Heat Resilience, Gut-Linked Hydration, Toxicological Defense (hangover), and Anabolic Hydration (water in muscles to help promote growth). Generic electrolyte powders will probably lose share to these precision tools. The overall messaging will shift from “drink more water” to “optimize your absorption.” It’s hydration as a performance metric, not just a biological necessity (measured by how fast it works, what it works on, and how long it lasts).

We’ve Reached A Caffeine Ceiling In 2026, I expect high-caffeine energy drinks (300mg+) to face a serious backlash that forces the category toward “cortisol management” (i.e., stress management) positioning. The regulatory momentum is building: Panera’s Charged Lemonade wrongful death settlements created a legal playbook for suing brands over high-caffeine formulations (making them liability nightmares for retailers), the UK moved to ban sales to under-16s, and similar bills are moving through U.S. state legislatures. However, while legal challenges will remain focused on heart health (previous scares focused on rare cardiac events) I think the real issue is anxiety, which Gen Z and Alpha rate as their number one health issue. A product that challenges the primary health concern of its target demographic faces an existential problem. The cultural shift is visible: the adaptogenic beverage market is growing at 7% annually, with L-theanine and ashwagandha trending as top 2026 ingredients. Concerns about stress and the stress hormone cortisol (e.g., “cortisol face”) are increasing. We’ll see a lot more nuanced use of caffeine as brands pivot by launching “calm focus” alternatives, 100mg caffeine plus L-theanine instead of 300mg straight stimulant. The 300mg tier may get age-gated while “functional calm” captures venture capital and shelf space.

The FDA Credibility Collapse In 2026, I think “FDA Compliant” shifts from a marketing asset to an unspoken baseline, brands will maintain compliance because they legally have to, but they’ll stop promoting it and instead lean on European standards or independent certifiers to signal actual safety. Trust in the FDA is eroding across the political spectrum: the right views it as captured by Big Food (no matter the MAHA influence), while the left increasingly starts seeing it as too cozy with MAGA interests. The Red 40 arbitrage has become the perfect illustration (i.e., American Fanta uses artificial dyes while the European version uses natural alternatives) making FDA approval look inadequate rather than reassuring. Brands whose consumers are concerned will quietly meet FDA requirements while marketing what goes beyond compliance: “No artificial dyes,” “Meets EU ingredient standards,” or third-party seals from Clean Label Project. This mirrors the Non-GMO Project in the 2010s where consumers lost faith in USDA oversight, and private certification grew into a $40 billion market segment. FDA compliance becomes like having seatbelts: required, assumed, not worth mentioning in your advertising. The differentiation will happen with claims signaling you’re doing more than the legal minimum. The shift will be clearest in how (mostly wellness) brands talk: less “FDA approved,” more “independently verified” or “exceeds U.S. standards.”

The Protein Credibility Wall In 2026, I think the protein gold rush hits a credibility wall, and brands will need to prove their protein actually works, not just that it exists on the label. The dominant strategy has been protein-washing: injecting isolates into cookies and chips, slapping “High Protein” on the package. That playbook is breaking. Consumers are getting savvier and wellness influencers are starting to view a protein cookie as engineered junk that causes bloating. The collision of high-protein hype with the anti-UPF movement is destroying the middle ground. I expect brands to pivot toward “structural protein,” protein native to the food, not added. A chickpea snack with 12g of protein because it’s made of chickpeas beats the heavily fortified bar. Meanwhile, GLP-1 drugs are rewriting the rules: users need protein to prevent muscle loss, not for satiety. Messaging shifts from “keeps you full” to “preserves muscle,” and formats shrink to concentrated nutrition. The gram war might finally be ending. The new fight will be about where your protein came from, its quality, and how efficient it is in solving your health needs.

GLP-1 Revolution

Walmart’s Metabolic Health Bundle In 2026, I’m watching for Walmart (or a major retailer with pharmacy scale) to launch a “Metabolic Health Subscription” bundling GLP-1 prescriptions with high-protein store brands, drug discounts, supplements, plus an app. They’ll likely start with a mass-market “Cash-Pay Bundle” leveraging Equate and Great Value (basically an inexpensive “GLP-1 Starter Kit”) undercutting everyone on price. But I think the longer play, to combat churn from side effects and muscle loss, will be to roll out a “Clinical Tier” partnering with CPGs like Nestlé Health Science, who are already undoubtedly running pharma-style trials on reversing muscle loss. By 2028, I’d expect a “Medically Validated” subscription where the food isn’t a perk but more of a prescribed adherence tool, potentially reimbursable by insurers. This solves the “shrinking basket“ trap. As GLP-1 users spend less on traditional groceries, Walmart would be able to lock in their entire metabolic spend through subscription.

The Caloric Inversion: Why “Light” Is Dying In 2026, I think we’ll see the beginning of the end for the 40-year business model of the diet aisle (i.e., selling volume without calories). For decades, brands made money on what you could call volumetric arbitrage: air-puffed snacks, water-heavy frozen meals, and 100-calorie packs. But to a GLP-1 user who’s chemically been made ‘full,’ a bag of popcorn isn’t a solution, its wasteful fluff taking up valuable stomach space. Therefore, in 2026, we’ll start to see a great splintering. The old ‘light’ form of ‘diet’ food will make way for more nutrient dense products (i.e., clinical nutrition priced by efficiency, not weight). I can see campaigns that flip the script from “eat the whole pint” “or '“less is more” to “small is mighty.” Three bites that keep you satisfied for four hours (basically, real-life Lembas bread). Of course, there is a serious problem here. CPG economics run on volumetric margins. Dense nutrition requires expensive inputs like high-quality protein, packed into smaller formats. COGS explode while pack size shrinks. I’m sure some old-school ‘diet’ brands will try pivoting their products by shrinking portions and adding protein, and I predict they will struggle (consumers aren’t wired to pay $6 for a tiny brownie from a brand they associate with budget volume). Will volumetric (aka light) diet food go away? No. Not everyone will be on GLP-1 drugs all the time, so hunger will still need to be tamped down with low-calorie foods. However, I can see these products needing to pick up a lot of the GLP-1 language and some of the benefits because their consumer will likely be trying to maintain the weight they lost on GLP-1 or they’ll just steeped in the culture that GLP-1 has established.

Products: SVRY protein bars; Shirgar cheese sticks; Raaka x Momofuku Chili Crunch Chocolate; TCHO Lemon Twist; bettergoods Spicy Maple Pickle Chips; Fond x Erewhon Bone Broth Hot Chocolate

Product Development

The Savory Shift: Why Sweet Snacks Are Losing Their Grip In 2026, I think we’ll see an increasingly hard snack pivot toward savory profiles (e.g., miso, chili, bone broth, olive oil, butter) as sugar becomes public enemy #1 for the masses (not just wellness folks). The entire “healthy snack” category has been built on sweet functionality: bars and yogurts sweetened just enough to feel virtuous. That foundation is cracking as more mainstream folks are looking to ingredient decks for grams of sugar. While alternative sweeteners have tried to bridge this anxiety, most brands have been playing ‘whack a mole’ as new sweeteners are demonized faster than development times. Add to that years of paleo and keto diets (and younger generations’ exploration of multi-cultural savory breakfast flavors) and you have a generation rewiring away from the American sweet-start default. Expect umami-forward flavors: miso-tahini bars, chili-lime yogurt, bone broth shots positioned as midday fuel. I think brands that are known for sweet products will have a difficult time convincing consumers that they can pivot, but new brands (and brands that were always savory) will be the big winners.

Sensory Conflict: When “Weird” Becomes the Strategy In 2026, I expect sensory dissonance (i.e., intentional flavor and texture conflicts) to become a more mainstream CPG innovation strategy. Most consumer products are engineered for a ‘harmonious balance’ in flavor and texture. But I think consumer fatigue with predictability is real, and restaurant culture has already normalized unusual mixes of flavors and texture in each bite, think sweet-spicy-sour or crispy-creamy-chewy transitions. Social media rewards “what IS this?” moments. Products that create surprise (e.g., liquid-filled chips, strawberry-balsamic combos, ice cream bars with three texture zones) generate reactions that “delicious but expected” products can’t. Technology now enables mass execution: moisture barriers, encapsulation, compartmentalized packaging deliver texture conflicts at grocery scale. Expect mainstream brands like Breyer’s to execute an olive oil with black pepper ice cream or Hershey’s to launch a chocolate with miso-lemon-sesame. “Weird” becomes familiar fast, salted caramel was once shocking, mochi ice cream was confusing, now both are standard. Mainstream brands realize dissonance equals talkability which equals trial.

Retailer & Private Label

The Inflation Shield: Surveillance Pricing Rebranded as Budget Protection In 2026, I’m betting a major grocer (probably Walmart or Kroger) launches a high-visibility “Basket-Level Affordability Guarantee” that flips the script on controversial algorithmic pricing. Instead of browsing aisles, shoppers input constraints like “Feed my family of four for $125 this week,” and AI auto-populates the cart, balancing private label with national brands that negotiated favorable rates. Current investigations (like this one from Consumer Reports regarding Instacart) have found large pricing discrepancies between customers shopping ecommerce, leading some to call foul and demand regulatory scrutiny. This type of program would get ahead of the backlash and rebrand this tech as a cost saver. The algorithm will prioritize brands paying for preferential placement (monetizing the feature through vendor relationships) while inserting private label where margins are tightest. The technology already exists in Walmart’s GenAI trip modeling, but this innovation would position it as consumer protection rather than price extraction. Retailers have poured too much money into their digital infrastructure, and the cash generator that is retail media networks (RMNs), to not try to reposition this.

The Private Label Complexity Trap In 2026, I think the private label rocket ship hits a speed bump most retailers aren’t pricing in: complexity debt. Grocers are loving the margin gains and attention, but they’re quietly accumulating the same irreversible operational issues that sank Sears: product development pressures, compliance, quality assurance, and recall readiness. The problem is, these aren’t simple variable costs you can dial down, they’re permanent commitments on their balance sheets. European retailers (with 25%+ private label penetration) cracked the code by staying disciplined: fewer SKUs, strict tiering, and keeping innovation risk with suppliers. U.S. retailers are betting differently, pushing private label into aspirational territory with storytelling and trend-chasing that pulls complexity in-house. Imagine a single devastating recall against a major private label. That doesn’t just hurt one product, it contaminates trust across the entire store, and retailers lack the brand firewall CPG giants have. Don’t get me wrong, private label is still in a good spot. Retailers are firing on all cylinders trying to grow with TikTok friendly flavors and exciting innovations, but I think we’ll see a partial slowdown in 2026 as some retailers realize that even AI can’t handle the complexity and they need to be more disciplined with their launches.

Transparency & Compliance

The Regenerative Reckoning In 2026, I think regenerative agriculture claims hit their first major credibility crisis, either class-action lawsuits or FTC enforcement forcing brands to pull back on marketing language they’ve spent years building. This isn’t about the practices being bad (the underlying farming methods are often solid), but the claims have gotten way ahead of the proof. “Regenerative” has no legal definition, no USDA standard, no universally accepted certification, yet brands make outcome claims like “carbon negative” based on inputs they can’t verify at scale. The supply chain complexity makes auditing nearly impossible (many brands are buying credits covering less than 5% of actual sourcing). Consumer skepticism is at all-time highs post-ESG backlash. I’m expecting a well-funded plaintiff’s firm to target a major brand with discoverable internal emails showing doubt about their data. This doesn’t mean regenerative agriculture dies, it means the marketing term becomes toxic without proof, forcing brands to either invest heavily in legitimate certification or retreat to safer language. The ones that survive will have genuine transparency and third-party verification.

The Transparency Trap: Why UPF Backlash Won’t Change the Box In 2026, I think major CPG companies respond to ultra-processed food backlash not by reformulating, but by launching aggressive transparency initiatives (e.g., QR codes, blockchain tracing, supplier disclosures) that explain their processing rather than change it. Actual reformulation will hit less than 10% of SKUs (mostly the wellness focused ones) because the economics make it nearly impossible. Consumer concern about UPF is real (over 50% say they avoid it), but purchase behavior hasn’t shifted because alternatives cost 30-50% more or taste worse. Reformulating to “clean label” typically increases COGS by 20-40% due to natural preservatives, shorter shelf life, and supply chain complexity. So instead of changing recipes, brands will invest in narrative control: explaining why their processing is safe, necessary, or better than homemade. The playbook exists: GMO labeling didn’t change formulations, it changed disclosure, and sales were largely unaffected. Expect a major player to launch a “radical transparency” campaign while changing fewer than ~10% of formulations, framing existing processes as ‘scaled up kitchen logic’ rather than industrial shortcuts.

Products: FridgeAI; GET’chmeva; OpenAi x Instacart integration

Artificial Intelligence

AI Becomes the Brand Avoidance Engine In 2026, I’m predicting a significant number of shoppers will use AI primarily to avoid brands rather than discover them, fundamentally neutralizing decades of brand storytelling. The behavior is already here: Yuka (the food-scanning app with 50 million users) shows 94% of users stop buying products that get a red rating. AI just makes this frictionless. Instead of asking “What are the best chips?” consumers query “Chips without Red 40 or seed oils,” and the algorithm strips out branded products in favor of whatever passes the filter (often private label or small brands with simpler ingredient decks). Major grocers like Albertsons launched agentic AI shopping assistants designed to solve problems like “Plan dinners with no ultra-processed foods,” which naturally filters out 80% of branded CPG without consumers ever seeing the package. Trust is migrating from brand equity (the logo) to algorithmic verification (the green checkmark). This is the ad blocker moment for food! The losers? Premium “story brands” that rely on vague claims. Private label wins by default when nutritionally identical but 40% cheaper.

The AI Gatekeeper: Killing Ideas Instead of Creating Them In 2026, I see CPG brands internally pivoting from using AI as an idea generator to using it as an idea culler (i.e., running pre-mortems at scale to kill concepts before they waste resources). The 2023-2025 era was all about AI for ideation: creating flavor variations, packaging concepts, marketing copy. But that created a new problem: R&D pipelines clogged with thousands of AI-generated concepts that still fail at 80-90% rates once they hit the real world. The pain point isn’t lack of creativity anymore (honestly it never was) it’s the inability to validate ideas cheaply and quickly before committing to manufacturing. AI agents can now query multiple databases simultaneously, checking ingredient costs in SAP while pulling Nielsen trend data and simulating consumer acceptance through synthetic testing. This makes culling the natural use case. Instead of discovering a product won’t work after six months, brands find out in six minutes. The economic pressure makes this inevitable: CPGs are in efficiency mode. While I’m predicting this will happen more often, I’m also suggesting great caution. If you cull too early, with less than perfect consumer data, you risk losing the power of iteration that can deliver breakthrough winning products. AI has its place here, but shouldn’t be given carte blanche on first round concepts.

Corporate Innovation

The Compliance Takeover: When R&D Becomes Legal Defense In 2026, I think major CPG companies will quietly shift resources from R&D and innovation teams to regulatory affairs and compliance, not because they want to, but because they have no choice. The combination of federal MAHA pressure (RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary, FDA potentially banning artificial dyes and instituting additional measures) and state-level regulatory chaos is forcing a defensive crouch. California’s Food Safety Act takes full effect in January 2027, which means the entire 2026 calendar gets consumed by supply chain auditing just to keep existing products legal. Add West Virginia and other states passing conflicting bans, and suddenly managing 50 different compliance regimes requires an army of specialists. Innovation becomes a luxury when your core portfolio is under threat of being declared illegal. The math is brutal: the cost of a class-action lawsuit now exceeds the potential profit of launching a new flavor. So, R&D and innovation are going to be curtailed while regulatory counsels get hired. While AI might keep both innovation and regulatory humming with less headcount, it will be difficult. CPG must invest in their innovation future while protecting existing value, a tough compromise. I don’t envy these leaders!

CPG’s Silent Pivot to Gen X and Boomers In 2026, CPG companies will execute what I’m calling a “silent pivot” toward Gen X and Boomer consumers. Not by publicly abandoning Gen Z, but by quietly expanding innovation where the actual money lives. Just do the math: Boomers and Gen X control over 70% of U.S. financial assets while Gen Z hunts for dupes on Facebook Marketplace and stretches paychecks. Expect an explosion of “healthy aging” and menopause-focused product lines (Danone’s already doing medical nutrition, Aldi UK recently launched a Menopause Hub), plus the return programs, SKUs and omnichannel strategies that favor older consumers. Marketing will lean into “ageless” aspirations and nostalgia from these eras (see Peanut Butter Boppers, a great cross-generational launch due to the Netflix connection). The watchout? Avoiding cringe terms like “senior” and “silver” and actually understanding how to talk about benefits for these generations.

The Great DTC Culling In 2026, I think the direct-to-consumer food brand model faces a brutal reckoning as customer acquisition costs hit 4X product COGS. Meta and Google ad costs have climbed 40-60% since 2021 while iOS privacy changes tanked conversion rates. CPG’s low average order value ($30-50) makes the LTV:CAC equation impossible without 60%+ repeat rates (most brands are stuck under ~20%). Retail expansion requires slotting fees and 30-40% margin haircuts, eliminating DTC economics without achieving real scale. Yes, there are some brands that have “cracked the code,” but mostly the ones that’ll survive will be those that figured out how to launch into retail (especially Club) or had celebrity founders giving them earned media instead of paid CAC. Expect distressed M&A at 0.5-1.5X revenue multiples as VC funds realize most portfolio companies are customer acquisition treadmills, not businesses. Shipping heavy glass and water via FedEx was never viable at scale. Unless something changes, its going to be a very rough road for DTC-first brands. Instead, it will have to be retail-first, with websites as storytelling hubs.

Manufacturing & Operations

The Manufacturing Boomerang In 2026, I expect major CPG companies to start buying or building their own manufacturing after spending a decade outsourcing everything. Campbell’s recent move to take a 49% stake in Rao’s production facilities is the canary in the CPG coal mine, they’re taking control to move faster and innovate without waiting in someone else’s queue. For the past decade, the playbook was simple: stay asset-light, outsource production, focus on branding. But that strategy is breaking down. Co-manufacturers have consolidated into near-oligopolies in specialized categories, and they’re running at 85-95% capacity (or so I’ve heard). That means 12-18 month lead times and pricing that’s jumped 30-40% since 2020. When your co-man is booked solid and charging whatever they want, the “asset-light” dream becomes an innovation nightmare. Speed matters in today’s market, and brands that can’t get production slots are missing market windows. The math has flipped: when co-mans were competitive and available, outsourcing made sense. Now they’re expensive, slow, and constrained. Owning capacity means cost control and the ability to test new formats without begging for line time.

GUT REACTION

Products: Popeye’s UK Mega and Big Dips; Starbucks at home line; SpongeBob SquarePants Cereal ; Arctic Pur; Hoboken Farms Butter & Calabrian Chili Marinara

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Ripple raises $17M, appoints Becky O’Grady new CEO

People Are Ordering Smaller Pizzas and Fewer Toppings. What Does That Tell Us?

Get Ready, America: Here Come China’s Food and Drink Chains

Inside RC Cola’s comeback campaign

Costco sues Trump administration for ‘full refund’ of tariffs

Svedka Super Bowl Commercial Will Mix Vodka With AI

San Francisco files 1st-of-its-kind lawsuit against largest ultraprocessed food manufacturers

7-Eleven’s viral Japanese egg salad sandwiches are now available in the U.S.

Cava Keeps No-Discounting Stance as Restaurant Deals Abound

Beef prices are soaring. Here’s why America is facing record-low cattle numbers

Trump pushes foreign food crackdown as grocery prices rise

Your Data Might Determine How Much You Pay for Eggs

A Chinese ice cream chain, powered by super-cheap cones, now has more outlets than McDonald’s

Unilever spinoff Magnum Ice Cream debuts on Amsterdam stock market

Instacart’s AI-Enabled Pricing Experiments May Be Inflating Your Grocery Bill

PepsiCo to cut prices, eliminate products as part of a deal with an activist investor

McCormick Unveils ‘Sophisticated’ Flavor of the Year for 2026

Keychain grabs $10M to disrupt private label supply chains for retail giants

Food industry groups sue Texas to overturn ingredient warning labels

Campbell’s says tariff price hikes pressuring some soup sales

JM Smucker cancels new coffee price hikes after tariffs lifted

The Cracks in Crumbl’s Cookie Empire Are Showing

JBS to close California beef plant

Interesting

Could Weight Loss Drugs Turn Fat Cats Into Svelte Ozempets?

Eli Lilly’s New Weight Loss Superdrug Worked So Well During Trials, Some Quit Over Losing Too Much

‘Appetizer economy’: Food inflation is on restaurant table as diners go smaller with menu choices

SNAP junk food ban expands to Missouri

GLP-1 users to drive 35% of food, drink sales by 2030

Working From Home Is Harming Young Employees. They’re Starting to See That

Target wants to revive ‘Tar-zhay.’ It just debuted a preview of that in New York

Estée Lauder’s Jo Malone is launching an “AI Scent Advisor” to convince people to buy perfumes without smelling them

Goodbye, Price Tags. Hello, Dynamic Pricing (video)

Science journal retracts study on safety of Monsanto’s Roundup: ‘Serious ethical concerns’

Let it be: Paul McCartney urges EU to drop ban on veggie ‘burgers’ and ‘sausages’

Fully Remote Work Least Popular With Gen Z

Women Are Now Leaning Out in the Workplace, Sheryl Sandberg Says

Far more Americans say they’d like to live in the past than in the future

Sorry, France, the world’s best bubbly is British

Fun & Odd

First names affect how you are perceived at work

Authorities intercept drone carrying crab legs, Old Bay seasoning, weed for prison inmates

How Sprouts cultivated an organic appearance in Apple TV hit ‘Pluribus’

How Chinese food and the movies became a time-honored tradition for American Jews

In-N-Out nixes ‘67’ from ticket system due to ‘6-7’ trend

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The Startup Drought Is Exposing Big CPG’s Innovation Problem

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 30 Nov 2025 23:10:00 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

The Tyranny of the P&L: Why Big Food Can’t Sell Dinner (or Breakfast)

The Startup Drought Is Exposing Big CPG’s Innovation Problem

The Gentrification of ‘Junk’: Can you (should you) clean up treats?

The “Old News” Trap: Why Your Innovation Boredom is Costing You Millions

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

The Tyranny of the P&L: Why Big Food Can’t Sell Dinner (or Breakfast)

I’ve done my fair share of projects aimed at reinvigorating innovation in big companies. Therefore, I can tell you that one of the first problems people will always point to are ‘silos.’ It is the safe, universal grievance. Executives lament that Marketing doesn’t talk to R&D, that Sales doesn’t listen to Supply Chain, and that the Left Hand generally has no idea what the Right Hand is doing. The proposed solution is always the same: more cross-functional meetings, more “collaboration software,” and more town halls about “One Team.”

But this diagnosis is wrong (OK, it’s true but too narrow).

Big Food doesn’t just have a communication problem, it has an incentive problem masquerading as an org chart.

The reason innovation feels disjointed and clunky isn’t because people aren’t talking, it’s because the fundamental architecture of the P&L is at war with how modern humans actually eat.

Accounting Fiction vs. Consumption Reality

Here is the friction point: Big Food is organized by Category (the Shelf), but consumers eat by Occasion (the Basket).

To a consumer, “Dinner” is a fluid system. It is a basket. It is a bag of tortilla chips, a jar of salsa, a pound of ground beef, a package of shredded cheese, and a seasoning packet. In the consumer’s mind, these items are all parts of a single solution: Nacho Night (in computer lingo you’d say they are interoperable).

But inside a legacy CPG company, those items might as well exist on different planets. The chips are owned by the Salty Snacks Division, salsa is owned by the JV group, and the seasoning packet sits with the Seasonings team.

Each of these divisions is run by a Brand Manager whose annual bonus (and career trajectory) is tied strictly to the organic growth of their specific brand and SKUs. They are not incentivized to sell “Dinner,” they are incentivized to sell more chips.

This is why, despite decades of talk about “solutions-based innovation,” Big Food still mostly launches new flavors of existing widgets. The P&L structure restricts them from launching systems.

The “Trade Spend” Civil War

If you want to see where innovation goes to die, sit in on the meeting where two Brand Managers try to execute a cross-merchandising campaign (I’ve done this numerous times).

Let’s say a strategist proposes a “Game Day Bundle” pairing the company’s soda brand with its chip brand. It makes perfect consumer sense. But immediately, the P&L math creates a civil war.

Who pays for the endcap display?
Who takes the hit on the discount?
If the bundle drives a 15% lift for chips but only a 2% lift for soda, why should the Soda VP subsidize the Chip VP’s bonus?

The friction of internal accounting makes true interoperability too expensive to execute. The result is that the consumer (and likely the retailer) wants the “Game Day Bundle,” but the company offers two separate, disconnected items.

The Retailer’s Advantage: The Basket P&L

While CPG giants bicker over internal attribution, Retailers (and their Private Labels) quietly seize the strategic high ground.

The fluidity of modern grocery retail (accelerated by social media and online shopping) has made this P&L disconnect fatal. When a recipe for a “Salmon Rice Bowl” goes viral on TikTok, the consumer isn’t looking for a brand, they are looking to replicate the result.

Retailers like Kroger, Walmart, and Trader Joe’s have a massive structural advantage here: they operate on the Basket P&L.

They do not care if they lose margin on the private label rice if it means they sell the salmon, the mayo, and the avocado. They don’t need the “Rice Manager” to agree to subsidize the “Salmon Manager.” They own the whole receipt.

This allows retailers to create interoperability between products. They can market the “Bowl” (the occasion) rather than the components. Big Food, trapped in its category silos, is left fighting for share within the ingredient list, while the retailer owns the meal.

The Strategic Fix: Orchestrating the Occasion

So, how do we fix this? Whether you are a multi-category giant or a single-category specialist, the goal is the same: Stop selling components and start orchestrating systems.

1. For the Giants: The Internal Joint Venture If you own the whole stack (chips and salsa), you must break the “Who pays?” deadlock.

The Fix: Create a centralized “Interoperability Fund” held by the CMO or Chief Growth Officer. If Brand A and Brand B collaborate on a solution, the funding comes from this central pot, not their individual P&Ls. This removes the friction that kills 90% of good ideas.

2. For the Specialists: The “Anchor Tenant” Strategy Most brands don’t own the whole dinner. You might only sell the sauce. You can’t force the “Meat Division” to cooperate because you don’t have a Meat Division.

The Fix: You don’t need to own the cow to sell the burger. Use your trade spend to negotiate “solution centers” rather than shelf placement. Instead of paying for an endcap of just your sauce, pay for a “Stir-Fry Night” shipper. You provide the physical structure; the retailer fills the empty slots with their private label rice and protein. You get the credit for the basket lift; they get the margin on the add-ons.

3. For Everyone: Virtual Bundling Physical co-packing is a nightmare of logistics. Digital co-packing is ‘free.’

The Fix: Use Retail Media Networks to target baskets, not keywords. You don’t need to call the Barilla brand manager to do this. You simply target “Pasta Buyers” on Instacart with a “Complete the Meal” ad for your pesto. You are creating a bundle in the consumer’s cart without ever shaking hands with the other brand.

4. The “Hardware Compatibility” Audit In tech, software is built with APIs so it can plug into other systems. Food needs to be the same.

The Fix: Audit your product to work well with other brands. If your hot dogs come in packs of 10 and the leading buns come in packs of 8, you have a hardware compatibility bug. If your frozen pizza doesn’t fit in the standard air-fryer basket, you are incompatible with the “Air Fryer Dinner” occasion. Redesign your product (and redesign how your team thinks) to “snap in” to this occasion/basket mentality.

The biggest competitor to your brand right now isn’t the other name-brand on the shelf next to you. It is the retailer’s ability to think about breakfast, lunch, dinner or ‘game day’ across their entire store (just like the consumer). Food companies need to get out of their own P&L heads and start thinking bigger and broader.

The Startup Drought Is Exposing Big CPG’s Innovation Problem

Sometime around 2010, the food industry made a strategic calculation that has proven to be a big mistake.

Under pressure to improve margins and deliver predictable quarterly growth, Big CPG effectively shifted its innovation strategy from “Build” to “Buy.”

To be fair, this wasn’t purely an act of financial cynicism, it was an admission of functional failure. For years, industry giants had tried to replicate startup agility inside their own walls. They launched “incubators” and appointed “intrapreneurs,” but those initiatives almost invariably hit a wall.

The reasons were structural and relentless. The corporate immune system, designed to optimize efficiency and mitigate risk, attacked anything that looked like a startup. Legal and compliance slowed speed-to-market to a crawl. The demand for immediate scale meant that niche concepts were killed before they had time to find an audience. And, most fatally, leaders incentivized on quarterly targets had zero motivation to nurture 5-year bets.

Faced with a dismal internal success rate, the C-Suite pivoted to a more efficient logic: Why fail internally when you can outsource the risk to the venture capital market?

The plan was simple: Let startups navigate the chaos. Let VCs burn their cash finding product-market fit. Big CPG would simply wait at the finish line to acquire the winners. For 15 years, this “buy-to-grow” model worked. It gave us the illusion of a healthy ecosystem where big companies provided scale and small companies provided soul.

But in 2024, the math changed. The venture capital subsidy that powered the industry’s innovation pipeline started to evaporate. Now, Big Food faces a structural crisis: They have emptied the pipeline of prime acquisition targets, but they have also let their internal “builder” muscles atrophy.

The result isn’t just a lack of M&A; it is a retreat into “Safe Bet” innovation that is slowly turning the grocery store into a commodity zone.

“Growth Capital Vacuum” & The Scarcity Premium

The breakdown isn’t that money has vanished, it’s that risk has been repriced.

While aggregate deal numbers have stabilized, the market has bifurcated into a brutal ‘barbell’ shape. On one end, you have early-stage startups hitting a ‘Series A Cliff’, unable to raise the $10M–$20M working capital needed to scale distribution, forcing them to liquidate.

On the other end, you have the few survivors: profitable, high-growth ‘Better-For-You’ brands. Because so few make it across the cliff, these survivors have become scarcity assets.

As Pitchbook notes, private equity is aggressively bidding up the price for these rare, BFY assets). This creates a scarcity premium. For Big CPG, the math of the ‘Buy’ strategy is breaking: There are fewer targets to buy, and the ones that exist are becoming wildly expensive (just look at the Siete price tag).

They are stuck in a trap: They can’t build innovation internally, but they can no longer afford to buy it externally without destroying their own ROIC (Return on Invested Capital).

The Trap of “Frankenstein Innovation”

Deprived of their usual diet of acquisition targets, CPG executives are in a serious bind. They need to show innovation to retailers to justify shelf space, but their internal groups are less resourced.

The result is a pivot to safety. We have entered the era of Frankenstein Innovation.

Instead of creating new value, companies are mashing up existing assets. This is why the shelf is suddenly flooded with “collabs” (brand x brand licensing) and endless flavor permutations. We see Jack Daniel’s mixed with Coca-Cola, Hidden Valley Ranch flavored Cheez-Its, and everything Wicked (so much Wicked!). We also get way more gimmicks and crazy drops like 65” boxes of Kraft Mac & Cheese.

This is not sustainable innovation, it is asset sweating. It is a financial maneuver designed to minimize risk while keeping the press release machine churning. It keeps the shelf warm, but it doesn’t solve new consumer problems or build new usage occasions.

The “Boring Aisle” and the Private Label Threat

The strategic danger here is not just that products are getting weirder, it’s that the grocery store is getting boring.

Innovation is the “rent” legacy CPG brands pay to justify their price premium over Private Label. If big CPG stops offering true innovation (i.e., better ingredients, new form factors, genuine utility) and offers only marketing gimmicks, the consumer begins to tune out.

If the only difference between the national brand and the retailer brand is a licensing deal, the consumer will eventually trade down. Retailers like Kroger, Walmart, and Trader Joe’s are watching this closely. They know that if the Big Guys stop innovating, the these aisles becomes prime real estate for their own high-quality private labels to take over.

The Builder’s Mandate: How to Fix the Broken Engine

If the “Buy” window is closed and the “Build” muscle is atrophied, CPG giants must design a third way. The goal isn’t to burn cash trying to replicate a 2015 venture capitalist’s portfolio, it’s to use modern tools to fail faster, cheaper, and smarter.

Here is the operational playbook for the “Post-Acquisition” era:

1. Move from “Gut-Check” to “AI-Check:” The old way of innovation was expensive because it was slow and manual. The new way is digital. Companies like Mondelez and Unilever are already using AI and Digital Twins to model thousands of flavor and texture combinations in the cloud before a single ingredient is mixed.

The Fix: Remake your innovation engine with modern tools and faster, smarter methods. Keep people in the loop but arm them with AI tools and technology and give them more freedom to experiment.

2. The “Zero-to-One” Strike Teams: You cannot incubate a new brand inside a quarterly earnings structure, the corporate immune system will kill it. But you also don’t need a massive “Innovation Lab.” You need Agile Strike Teams.

The Fix: Create a handful of small, ring-fenced pods (3–5 people) given a “Seed Round” budget and a 12-month runway. Not a ‘free for all’ but a targeted list of opportunities identified through serious Opportunity research. Their metric isn’t Year 1 ROI, it’s velocity of learning. If they fail, they fail cheap (using small-batch co-packers, not internal factories). This mimics the startup “lean” model without the startup equity risk.

3. Capacity as Currency: Big CPG has one unfair advantage over every startup, idle manufacturing lines. The “Series A Cliff” exists because startups can’t afford to manufacture at scale.

The Fix: Instead of writing checks to buy brands later, trade capacity for equity now. Offer promising startups a “Scholarship”, production time on your idle lines in exchange for a minority stake. You get a front-row seat to their data, they get to survive the capital crunch, and you build a “farm team” of potential acquisitions for pennies on the dollar.

The era of the “Asset Manager” CEO is over. The next decade belongs to the companies that relearn how to be makers.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Sargento Natural American cheese; Moosh It’s Like Cotton Candy; MyProtein x Mars collaboration; Dirty Gut probiotic and postbiotic chocolates.

The Gentrification of ‘Junk’

Food companies are between a rock and a hard place.

Faced with the rising panic over Ultra-Processed Foods (UPF) and clean eating, companies are realizing they can’t ignore the noise from increasingly MAHA-led regulators or influencers, but they also can’t stop selling the brands and hyper-palatable foods and textures that keep the lights on. So, instead of changing the types of food, they are changing the optics. We are witnessing the Gentrification of ‘Junk’ (note: I say ‘junk,’ meaning junk food, without malice. I’m not against a little junk food in life).

The goal is no longer just to make food taste good, it’s to engineer a product that delivers the supreme, melt-in-your-mouth satisfaction of a processed snack, but with an ingredient deck that gets a green light on a food scanning app. It’s a brilliant survival strategy, but it raises a massive strategic question: Are we actually fixing the food, or are we just getting better at hiding the evidence?

The Illusion of the “Clean” Label

Take the recent launch of Sargento’s “Natural” American cheese. For decades, the industry accepted a simple trade-off: to get that specific, nostalgic melt, you needed emulsifying salts, like sodium citrate (it’s literally in the definition of American cheese). By engineering these out to claim a “Natural” label, brands are performing an impressive, technical high-wire act, replicating the physics of processed food using “kitchen logic” ingredients like cultured celery powder or enzymes.

The result is a product that is “legislatively clean” but “physiologically processed.” It allows the shopper to buy the melt without the guilt. We see this everywhere: cotton candy spun from inulin, soda that claims to be a prebiotic supplement, and chips fried in avocado oil but dusted with the same hyper-palatable powders.

The Death of the Treat

However, there is a risk in sanitizing our vices. We are seeing a counter-trend explode simultaneously: unapologetic indulgence. From $140 luxury cookie boxes to the resurgence of full-fat dairy (like butter’s resurgence I talked about in my last newsletter), consumers are signaling that when they want a treat, they want the real thing.

There is a psychological component to snacking that “Clean Junk” misses. Part of the satisfaction of a treat is the “naughtiness” of it. It’s a momentary release from the rules. When you engineer the “sin” out of the product (making a donut high-protein or a soda high-fiber) you often remove the psychological reward. You place the consumer in a purgatory where the product isn’t healthy enough to be a meal, but not fun enough to be a true indulgence (the Snackwell problem).

If the industry pushes too hard toward “Healthy Junk,” they risk pleasing no one: the health nuts will still reject it because it’s processed, and the hedonists will reject it because it feels sanitized.

The Next Battleground: Satiety, Not Just Ingredients

This leaves legacy brands (the makers of cereal, salty snacks, and candy) in a precarious spot. They cannot simply pivot to selling broccoli. Their equity is built on processing. But the “Gentrification” strategy is only a temporary shield.

The anti-UPF movement is evolving quickly. Right now, the focus is on ingredients (additives). But the conversation is shifting toward matrix and satiety. Critics are starting to realize that a cookie made of “clean” flour and “natural” cane sugar still spikes glucose and fails to satiate just like the “dirty” version.

The next wave of scrutiny won’t be about whether your ingredients are hard to pronounce, it will be about hyper-palatability! Does your food ‘hijack’ the brain? Does it dissolve so quickly that the body doesn’t register calories or get shunted to a different kind of processing? These are all arguments that deeply concern a very vocal group of wellness advocates.

The way forward for big brands is a dual-track strategy of Transparency and Quality. Stop apologizing for the core. If you are selling a chocolate bar, own the indulgence and clean up the deck for quality, not health-washing. Then, build new platforms that actually solve the satiety problem rather than just gaming the ingredient label. The brands that win the next decade won’t be the ones making “Clean Junk,” they will be the ones who understand that you can’t trick biology forever.

Products: Saucified Protein+ Fiber Sauces; Molly Bz Dubai Cookie – Pistachio & Kataifi Indulgence; Silk Protein Almond Milk; Oatly RTD Iced Coffee Beverages; Nan’s Original Recipe No-Seed Oil Vinaigrettes

The “Old News” Trap: Why Your Innovation Boredom is Costing You Millions

Have you shopped at Costco recently? For a retailer that caters to an affluent food-lover, it sure is full of “old” trends.

I made the mistake of going to Costco over the Black Friday weekend and here is what I saw: pallets of grain-free granola, sous-vide egg bites, and protein bars. To a trend-obsessed marketer, this assortment looks like a time capsule from 2019! It feels “played out.” It feels like “old news.”

But Costco isn’t stocking a museum, they are stocking what sells at massive, undeniable volume.

This is the reality check that I think a lot of CPG innovation teams desperately need. There is a profound disconnect between what feels exciting in a boardroom and what is actually moving through the supply chain.

I call this the ‘Old News’ Trap and often consult with innovation teams not to fall into it. The industry has a bad habit of killing potentially profitable product lines simply because the internal team has grown bored of them, right at the moment the mass market is finally ready to buy.

Here is what I’m seeing going on in many companies that is blocking profitable innovation.

The Time-Zone Disconnect

Many innovation teams live in a different ‘time-zone’ compared to their consumers.

Innovation teams live in the future (they kind of have to to see what’s next). They spend a lot of time reading trend decks, seeing TikToks about what’s hot at Erewhon, and dissecting menu adoption curves. They are the tip of the spear in terms of food/beverage trends.

The problem is most of their consumers live in the present. They have jobs, commutes, and bills. They are risk-averse. Most don’t buy food to signal cultural awareness on TikTok, they buy food to feed their families. It takes roughly 3 years for a trend to migrate from a “cool” coastal pop-up to a pantry staple in Ohio.

And there is the trap. Industry insiders mistake their own exposure to a trend for market saturation. By the time a trend feels “cringe” to a marketing director, it is usually just entering the “Early Majority” phase of adoption.

The Boredom Gap

I call this the Boredom Gap in my innovation training courses. It’s where internal enthusiasm collapses before consumer revenue peaks.

Phase 1 (The Hype): The brand team gets excited about a niche ingredient. R&D runs trials.
Phase 2 (The Trough): The concept is tested (or even regionally launched) but interest is low because it requires consumer education or just not enough interest. The team gets discouraged.
Phase 3 (The Abandonment): The team kills the project to focus on a new, shinier object.
Phase 4 (The Miss): One to two years later, the idea to launch a similar product is raised. The team dismisses it. “We did that, it didn’t work” or “That trend’s played out” is the common sentiment. A private label or startup launches the idea and captures the category.

Too many internal teams treat “boring” as a defect. They mistake their perception of what is a boring trend as the same as their consumers’. Most of the time, unless your consumer is in the rare leading edge group, this is a losing assumption.

Fixing the Boring Problem

If you want to stop leaving money on the table, you need to readjust your strategy.

1. Consumer Check-in: As always, this disconnect with your consumers over trend adoption can only happen if you are just reading reports and scrolling TikTok. If you are actually talking to consumers, you quickly realize where they are in the trend cycle. You realize they still see hot honey as novel.

2. Boredom is a Buy Signal: When your marketing team starts complaining that a trend is “everywhere” and feels “generic,” do not pull back. Double down on distribution. That feeling of ubiquity is a signal that the barrier to entry for the average consumer has finally lowered. You are no longer selling novelty, you are selling a category standard.

3. Let Others Pay the “Education Tax”: There is a strategic case for being the “Second Mouse.” Let the startups targeting early adopters spend the money to educate everyone on the benefits of CLA-fat, pink matcha, and beef offal. Watch the trend. When the startups start to stagnate with their core, but the ingredient awareness reaches mainstream highs, that is your entry point.

4. The Freeze Strategy: If you launch a product and it fails because it was “too early,” don’t kill the formulation. Freeze it. Tag it with specific cultural indicators (e.g., “Launch when menu penetration hits 15%”). Most “failed” innovations weren’t wrong, they were just premature.

Unless you are targeting a niche group, which you happen to be part of, your job is not to be filling your pipeline with your own food wishes. Your job is to match your product cycle to the consumer’s adoption cycle. Yes, you need to be looking ahead to what’s coming next, but don’t mistake new and cool with guaranteed mainstream success.

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Chick-fil-A testing waffle chicken sandwiches; Trader Joe’s Cinnamon Sugar Waffles; Trader Joes Brioche Liege Maple Waffles; Smartfood Chocolate Caramel; PopCorners Cocoa Crunch; Siete Bunuelos; Mary Brown’s Feast For One; Perdue Holiday Nuggets

GUT REACTION

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Panera lost diners by cutting portions and staff. It’s reversing course to win them back

Target cuts profit outlook as shoppers look for deals, make fewer store trips

Walmart Jumps to Nasdaq in Biggest Exchange Transfer on Record

Monster takes on Alani Nu with female-focused energy drink

THC drinks are flying high. A new hemp law could kill the buzz

Target to launch ChatGPT app with multi-item baskets, fresh food

The Whole Foods Buyer Who Decides What We Eat

Unilever reportedly considering sale of Marmite, Colman’s and Bovril

How America’s Hottest Chicken Chain Keeps Its Secret Sauce a Secret

Hollywood’s Cheesiest New Star? Parmigiano Reggiano Reportedly Signed By UTA for Film and TV Placement

Albertsons’ pilot with Chobani drives ad outcomes

Interesting

Digital veterans raise $2M+ seed round to launch new food media startup

How Much Protein Your Body Can Really Absorb at Once

35% of American singles are opting for coffee dates: ‘Economic factors are impacting different people in different ways’

Germans Are Going Off Beer. That’s Forcing Brewers to Adapt or Go Bust.

Why Water—Yes, Water—Is Now the Hottest Amenity at 5-Star Hotels

GLP-1 Users Poised to Drive 35% of Food, Beverage Units by 2030

UK Government Extends Sugar Tax to Milk-Based Beverages

Campbell’s promises its soups are not made with 3D printed meat

The top 100 hottest global F&B start-ups

MIT study finds AI can already replace 11.7% of U.S. workforce

Private label’s allure transcends income levels, survey finds

Japan enlists star SF, LA chefs in growing war over the word ‘wagyu’

They have six packs - but they’re still jumping on and off weight-loss jabs

Being hot is now a job requirement

The dark side of optimizing your metabolism

Fun & Odd

Outrage in Italy After Belgian-Made “Carbonara” Sauce Appears in EU Parliament Store

More than $100,000 worth of escargots stolen from French snail farmer with Michelin clientele

Are Butter Cookie Tins from Walmart and Costco AI Slop?

What Is an Aerocano? How to Try the Airy Coffee Trend

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Butter is Back! From MAHA Moms to Japanese Pancakes

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 16 Nov 2025 22:04:24 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Whole Foods Tightrope: Can the organic leader sell us Coke?

The Return of Butter: Is butter the most under-reported trend of 2026?

The Intensity Economy: Are we in a sensation bubble?

Ideas from the Future: Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Subscribe now

Can Whole Foods Sell Coca-Cola Without Losing Its Soul?

Whole Foods/Amazon dropped a big announcement last week that got very little coverage.

The company is piloting a Whole Foods concept store that houses a 10,000-square-foot micro-fulfillment center full of 12,000 SKUs of conventional groceries and household essentials (e.g., Kraft Mac & Cheese, Pringles, Cheez-Its, Coca-Cola, etc.). Normally, Whole Foods would never let these products touch their shelves, but now customers can order these items via QR code while shopping in-store, or add them to delivery orders. Amazon calls it a “store within a store.”

What I call it: psychological quarantine.

Amazon Knows You Better Than You Know Yourself

Amazon knows most of their Whole Foods shoppers aren’t pure. They’re buying the conventional products (Amazon has the receipts!). They just aren’t buying them at Whole Foods.

That’s a real problem for Amazon. These shoppers are performing their aspirational identity at Whole Foods, then sneaking off to Walmart or Instacarting their mundane stuff. However, every trip elsewhere for Coke and Hostess snack cakes is lost revenue that Amazon desperately wants to recover.

The answer? Give shoppers their organic gluten-free cake and let them eat their Twinkies too, just never in the same visible transaction.

The Tension: Purity Requires Exclusion

This is where Amazon faces the real challenge. You can’t just stick Charmin on the shelf next to the $9 recycled bamboo toilet paper without destroying the entire value proposition.

Whole Foods isn’t a supermarket that happens to sell organic food. Curation is its identity! Their promise is: you can shop on autopilot here because we’ve already filtered out the ‘garbage.’ The benefit to the Whole Food core shopper isn’t just the product selection, it’s the mental relief of not having to constantly question the wellness value of everything you pick up.

Put conventional products on the shelf and you break that contract. You force the cognitive load back onto customers. You turn Whole Foods into Walmart with better lighting and a 40% markup.

So, that leads us to Amazon’s current gamble: What if purity doesn’t require physical separation? What if a digital wall is enough?

Platform Segregation Logic Meets Physical Retail

The micro-fulfillment center isn’t about logistics efficiency. Amazon operates 800+ distribution centers, they don’t need another one. This is about keeping conventional products physically out of sight while making them psychologically accessible.

It’s the same strategy Amazon uses everywhere else. Online, you can buy artisanal olive oil and motor oil in the same cart because the interface doesn’t judge. The platform accommodates everything but the curation layer makes you feel like you’re only seeing what matters to you.

Now they’re testing whether that works in physical space. The Cheez-Its exist, but they live in a robot-operated back-room customers never see. You can add it to your cart via app, but you’ll never have the moment of emotional reckoning where your basket contains both bio-dynamic arugula and Miller Lite Beer Can-flavored Pringles.

The bet: affluent consumers will accept this cognitive dissonance if they don’t have to witness it.

What This Means for Brands

1. Your brand positioning now has to survive two contexts at once
You’re no longer just competing on the Whole Foods shelf, you’re competing against the invisible “shadow shelf” that lives behind the QR codes. If you’re a premium or natural brand, you now sit next to Lay’s potato chips in the shopper’s transaction, even if you don’t sit next to them on the aisle.
If your brand relies heavily on “I don’t belong with the processed stuff,” that moat just shrank.

2. Premium brands are going to lose some of their captive advantage
Whole Foods used to force trade-up because cheaper conventional equivalents didn’t exist in the building. If this concept becomes reality, those equivalents are one scan away. Any premium brand with weak differentiation could feel the true price elasticity of its shopper.
If your premium SKU is basically just a nicer label and a brand story, you’re exposed.

3. Emerging brands lose a piece of their insulation
Whole Foods historically acted as a curated safe zone where smaller brands weren’t in immediate comparison with the $2.99 megabrands.
Now? You may still be on the curated shelf, but your competition is sitting backstage waiting to be summoned. The comparison gap narrows. Expect margin pressure. (i.e., will WF use this as a bludgeon to bring brands margins down ?)

5. Brand storytelling becomes more important, not less
If a retailer gives shoppers one frictionless screen to choose between your $7 granola and the $4 national brand, your differentiation has to hold at the identity level.
If you can’t articulate why you belong on the curated side of the wall, consumers won’t bother protecting you.

The Retailer Impact

This is still just a concept, but it’s a canary in the coal mine for the future direction of grocery retail.

I’ve talked about this before. Every major retailer wants their stores to be a closed ecosystem, a walled garden where the customer never has to leave to finish filling their basket. Micro-fulfillment, hybrid carts, back-room inventory that never touches a shelf, digital add-ons layered over physical browsing, these aren’t experiments anymore, they’re the future competitive set.

The goal is simple: stop consumers from shopping around. Capture the whole trip, not just the category.

When the shelf becomes finite but the retailer’s ecosystem becomes infinite, consumers don’t just compare products, they start recombining them. New category adjacencies emerge. New trade-offs appear. Products that were never in the same mental frame suddenly coexist in a single transaction.

The real shift isn’t that Whole Foods might sell Coke, shocking as that might be, it’s that every retailer is moving toward a world where the shelf you see and the digital shelf you can access are combined, and brands will have to compete in both realities at once.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Golden Hooves Regenerative Butter; Raw Farm Raw Grass-Grazed Cultured Butter; Dominique Ansel’s Hokkaido milk soft serve dipped in French butter; Jack’s Dining Room Japanese Pancakes at Butter Restaurant; Miss Jones Cookie Dough Made with Real Butter; Butter Me Up Popcorn; Tillamook Butternaise; Level Up Keto Butter Creamer; Sur la Table x 4^th & Heart Ghee cooking classes

Is Butter the Most Under-Reported Trend of 2026?

“I’m a butter mom”

The first time I heard someone say those words was about six months ago. I was in kitchen, talking to a woman about health and nutrition routines, when she said it casually, like it needed no explanation. Since then, I’ve heard it again and again as the term spreads through social feeds.

There’s no official definition, but it’s usually explained by first talking about its opposite: “almond mom.” The almond mom counts grams of everything, is obsessed with weight, and treats food like a math equation. In contrast, the butter mom embraces intuition, cooks with real ingredients, and isn’t interested in guilt-based wellness (or passing that on to her kids). ‘Butter’ is her shorthand for real food wellness.

That’s what caught my attention. In a world full of functional proteins, longevity hacks, microbiome optimizers, and metabolic tracking, ‘butter’ is the word some women are choosing to represent a calmer, more grounded approach to eating.

And I see the rest of culture coming to meet them. TikTok is drowning in butter right now. Butter-dipped soft serve. Viral Japanese pancakes served with hand-patted sticks of butter. Influencers talking about the health halo of grass-fed, raw, and regenerative butter.

Butter isn’t just having a moment, it’s becoming a cultural nexus, the ingredient where several independent threads converge: anti-processed sentiment, MAHA nutrition logic, intuitive eating, whole-food minimalism, and a hunger for sensory joy.

It’s that combination that makes me think that butter is one of the most under-reported trends heading into 2026. Let me explain.

The Case for Butter: Four Forces

1. Shock & Attention (Social Media Currency)

For decades, butter was the villain. Saturated fat would kill you, “heart attack on a plate,” all of that. We were lectured into believing margarine was nutritional progress and butter was what took down the Greatest Generation.

Which is why a video of Dominque Ansel dipping a soft-serve cone into melted butter still hits with visceral force. Real shock value. But unlike the Liver King gnawing on organs, butter’s shock isn’t so much grotesque as it is intriguing. It’s rebellion that looks tasty.

Butter’s transgression works because it sits in the sweet spot: outrageous enough to stop your scroll, familiar enough to make you hungry. It’s naughty and nice at the same time, a rare combo that algorithmically performs.

What is interesting is that what starts as internet excess quickly becomes normalized. Once people watch food being dipped, drizzled and doused for entertainment, butter in everyday products suddenly starts feelings OK again. The spectacle is softening the taboo but leaving the thrill.

2. Wellness Purity (MAHA-Era Positioning)

Here’s where butter intersects with the anti-processed movement. Against the backdrop of industrial processed oils, butter is radically simple. Just cream (maybe salt).

In the MAHA worldview, the healthiest foods are the ones with the shortest path from nature to plate. In a marketplace full of sunny seed oils with suspicious factory backstories, butter is understandable and trustable.

Butter’s simplicity now functions as a form of moral clarity. Grass-fed, regenerative, raw, these aren’t just premium descriptors, they’re signals that butter aligns with ancestral and traditional nutrition logic. The “butter mom” movement isn’t really about butter, it’s about rejecting the idea that modern wellness has to be joyless and hyper-controlled.

As MAHA voices gain power and saturated fats get re-evaluated, I believe butter’s symbolic weight will grow.

There is tension, though. Commodity butter can feel processed and corporate, especially when packaged like margarine’s cousin. That’s why emerging wellness brands are distancing themselves from conventional butter and leaning into “back to the farm” language. The story matters as much as the fat itself. (I have a lot more to say on this issue, get in touch if you want to chat).

3. Indulgence (Permission Structure)

Everyone knows butter tastes amazing. Butter is a flavor amplifier! It makes plain things craveable (see mashed potatoes or bread).

What’s new is the permission structure forming around that indulgence. MAHA logic reframes butter as nutrient-dense, satiating, ancestral, not sinful. You see this especially in influencer nutrition content: butter is no longer the thing you hide, it’s the thing you showcase.

Think of where dark chocolate landed about fifteen years ago. Chocolate went from a sinful treat to a healthy indulgence-with-benefits. Butter may be entering that phase now.

Tallow might have gotten the early MAHA attention, but how many people do you know who have deep emotional ties to tallow? Butter has taste memory, childhood nostalgia, and is “home cooking” coded. Let’s put it this way, no one praises a food by saying its ‘tallowy.’

4. Affordable Luxury

Butter isn’t cheap, but it’s becoming one of the few luxuries consumers are refusing to give up when budgets tighten. Some are saying butter now falls into lipstick luxury. When everything feels unstable (groceries, rent, work, the world) a better butter is a small, daily comfort that makes life feel less compromised.

That’s already showing up in behavior. NPR recently reported on consumers spending up to sixty dollars a pound for specialty butters. To me that indicates butter’s power even during a downturn (at least in a K-shaped economy).

When indulgence, purity, shock value, and affordability converge, you get a cultural accelerant. Butter is sitting right at that intersection and I think it will get much bigger in 2026.

So What?

Let me put this all together now.

Butter is turning into a cultural shorthand for “real,” “trusted,” “unprocessed,” and “worth savoring.” I can’t stress enough how rare it is for one ingredient to hold symbolic power and functional value at the same time. That makes butter a brand-building tool, not just a formulation choice.

Consumers are increasingly judging products by the fats they use, and butter is becoming the gold standard for signaling simplicity, honesty, and sensory payoff, without falling into the traps of ultra-processing or joyless wellness.

Where Brands Can Play

1. Audit your fats
Would swapping canola or sunflower oil for butter actually resonate with your audience? Is it technically feasible? Would it make the product taste better? If yes, there might be a meaningful story to tell here.

2. Choose your butter identity
As mentioned, mass-produced butter might not carry the full weight of symbolism needed for your consumer. Consider:

grass-fed
regenerative
organic
raw
cultured
brown butter
ghee

3. Lean into indulgent-wellness hybrids
For everything from bars, bites, breakfast items, functional snacks, and refrigerated doughs, butter creates the bridge between “clean ingredients” and sensory joy.

4. Put butter back on the label
“Made with real butter” suddenly has credibility again. If you can, shout it loudly.

5. Create the ‘butter version’ in your category
Every mature category has a premium slot waiting for a butter-forward SKU:

snack bars with butter instead of seed oils
frozen breakfast with visible butter cues
butter-rich savory snacks
refrigerated bakery with butter positioning

First mover wins the conversation.

6. Use butter as an aesthetic
Even if it’s not the hero ingredient, butter’s visual language (golds, creams, slow melts) signals warmth, nostalgia, taste, and minimal processing.

7. Post-purchase addition

If you can’t put butter into your product, can you have the consumer do it? Yes, we all know about adding butter to a cake mix but I urge you to think bigger. I’ll prompt you with this awesome 80s Cheerios ad.

Products: Just Foods Power Jacks; Sprinkle Bites Protein Sprinkles; Sturdy Sauce Protein Marinara; Magic Spoon Hot Chocolate Cereal; Quantum Energy Caffeinated Protein Squares; V8 Spicy Cajun; Control Freak Coffee; Hormel Black Label Frank’s Red Hot Bacon; Liquid IV Hot Chocolate Electrolyte Drink Mix; Sour Punch Pickle Straws; Jimmy John’s Pickle Menu

The Intensity Economy: Why Everything is More and Nothing is Enough

Does pasta sauce need 80g of protein? Do people want more electrolytes and more caffeine in their drinks? Why is every brand racing to be ‘hotter’ or ‘more sour’ than the next?

It’s not just the stock market that seems to be riding extreme (and potentially dangerous) highs right now, I think it’s increasingly our approach to…well everything. Welcome to the Intensity Economy: where “more” has become the only direction food culture knows how to move.

I’ve been asking myself, why is everything going up?

We’ve Gone Numb

I call it ‘sensation inflation.’ TikTok scrolling has gotten us all used to the need for increased stimulation. Every reel needs to ‘up’ the excitement to deliver the same amount of dopamine; our excitement sensors are being recalibrated. So, it’s not surprising when Tastewise reported that “intense flavor” is driving spending up 53.4% year-over-year across baking, snacks, and condiments.

When normal levels aren’t breaking through the noise anymore, we need bigger hits. This translates into unprecedented levels of heat, spice, and sour flavors, sometimes to painful levels (as the pleasure pathways become exhausted).

The Measurability Trap

When it comes specifically to functional ingredients, we are in a similar situation, but for slightly different reasons. Brands trying to pack more protein, more creatine, and more vitamins into every bite and sip comes from:

Control through counting: When everything feels chaotic and uncertain, grams and percentages offer a concrete decision. “30g protein” is knowable. “Nourishing” is not.

Optimization theater: More protein signals you’re doing something about your health without requiring deeper engagement with what your body actually needs. It’s signaling to yourself, visible proof you made the “better” choice.

The productivity export: We’ve imported workplace logic into eating. Just as you’re supposed to maximize your productivity per hour, you should maximize nutrition per calorie. Nutrition becomes a KPI. Every meal is now a performance review.

Brand-side escalation: When every brand offers protein, the only way to differentiate on shelf is to offer MORE protein. It’s cheaper to reformulate for 25g than to rebuild your entire brand story. The number is the story. And once one brand goes to 25g, everyone else needs 27g or 30g just to stay visible. It’s an arms race where nobody can afford to be left behind.

The logic becomes self-reinforcing: If 15g is good, 20g must be better. If 20g is better, 30g must be best. There’s no natural ceiling when “more” is the only legible improvement and the easiest claim to make.

The Coming Market Correction

Here’s where the stock market metaphor matters. I see the Intensity Economy behaving exactly like a speculative bubble. Everyone is assuming ‘up’ is the only direction and that we’ll be in this climb forever.

I don’t think so.

Just like with stock markets, there must be a point where a ceiling is reached, where we don’t see deflation but the bubble bursting.

I see the following early warning signs of a coming collapse:

Clean eating advocates are pushing back against ultra-processed foods. No matter how ‘clean’ a product claims to be, if it contains massive amounts of protein far beyond its normal level, it’s a UPF
Multiple states (and the MAHA-led federal government) are now proposing bans on food additives and chemicals, putting many flavor intensity methods in jeopardy
“High protein” has shifted from novelty to expectation. It’s no longer a differentiator, just table stakes. When everyone has 25g, no one stands out. The premium is evaporating.
GLP-1 medications are quietly reshaping appetites and taste buds. Smaller bites are starting to be better and extreme heat may not be on the menu. While higher protein makes sense here, a balance of macros is more likely in order.
Flavor fatigue is setting in. A recent Mintel x Black Swan report shows consumers seeking complexity over mere intensity, they want interesting, not just extreme. The treadmill to ‘more’ is getting harder to sell.

The question isn’t whether this breaks. It’s when (and what replaces it).

Three Plays for Brands

Move from extremes to complexity: As I mentioned above, extreme is not the answer consumers are looking for. Don’t go hotter or sour-er, just more interesting. Add layers, contrast, and dimensions instead of more of the same.

Give function some context (and a reality check): Not every food needs to carry a full day’s worth of protein. Match the benefit to the moment instead of chasing the highest number on shelf. If you can show people WHY it’s not right for their body to have that much protein in one meal (and what’s ideal), you can change your brand from the one delivering the most to the one that delivers the smartest.

Dial it in, don’t dial it up: Heat, sour, caffeine, protein, they all land better when they’re in proportion to the food, not maxed out for shock value. Talk about balance instead of extremes.

Use texture and contrast as the “new intensity:” Crunch, creaminess, warmth, coolness. Instead of ramping of flavors or nutrients, be the one that offers the best textures at a moderate volume.

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IDEAS FROM THE FUTURE

Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Slice Shirley Temple; Mr PIBB; Kroger Private Selection Liege Waffles Pineapple Habanero; Target Favorite Day Dark Chocolate Dipped Crispy Crepes; Favorite Day Ube Cheesecake Empanadas; Better Goods Red Dragonfruit Acai Smoothie + collagen; Del Taco ‘Micro Meal’;

GUT REACTION

Products: Taco Bell Baja Blast Pie; Del Monte Fruit Delights; Abu Dhabi Chocolate; Starbucks Japan Soupuccino; Diamond Foods Indonesia Biokul to Go with Jelly Balls

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Trump Implements Major Rollback of Food Tariffs

Why the Future of Coffee Doesn’t Belong to Starbucks

Meet Daybright: Chick-fil-A’s New Coffee-Juice-Smoothie Spinoff

Panera Bread announced its plan to close the last of its fresh dough facilities.

How Tito’s Vodka Gets Away With It

Yum Brands may sell Pizza Hut

RBI sells majority stake in Burger King China business

Amazon sues AI startup over browser’s automated shopping and buying feature

Apollo pulls plug on Papa Johns bid

Infatuation’s 2026 Restaurant Trends (Including Freaky Caesars)

TreeHouse Foods to be acquired for $2.9B

Instacart rolls out new agentic AI tools for grocery chains, starting with Sprouts Farmers Market

Hain Celestial cutting 30% of its SKUs in North America

Chobani posts red-hot growth as food rivals languish

Target Announces Price Reductions on Food and Nationwide Food Donation

Lawmakers slip hemp THC ban in funding bill

SweetGreen adds macro calculator to its app and website

Interesting

Americans with six-figure incomes are in ‘survival mode’

Dual income, no kids: What we know about ‘DINKs’ in the U.S.

Popular ideas about inflammation have lost touch with medical reality.

AI Is Accelerating Tech Giants’ Dominance of the Ad Market

The world of supplement stickers

Ray Dalio is backing a $1 billion blueberry unicorn that sells berries nearly the size of golf balls

The Different Ways Men and Women Spend Their Days

Don’t Eat Here: A New Study Says This Is The Worst U.S. Airport For Food

Trump unveils deal to expand coverage and lower costs on obesity drugs

AI isn’t replacing jobs. AI spending is

Study Suggests Daytime Fiber May Be The Missing Factor For Better Sleep At Night

Half of new US companies disappear within 5 years — and only 1 in 3 makes it to year 10

Italian Pasta Is Poised to Disappear From American Grocery Shelves

Sauerkraut, Kimchi and…Gut Nuts? Fermented Foods Are Having a Moment

Fun & Odd

Limited-Edition ‘Bearista’ Cups Are Causing Chaos At Starbucks

Apparently, “Ozempic Earlobes” Are a Thing Now, Too

Goldfish Crackers Returns to Macy’s with the Smallest Float in Parade History

The ultralight gummy bear power bank just got yanked from Amazon

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What Target Sees in THC Drinks (and what it means for your category)

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 02 Nov 2025 22:04:53 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

The Crunch Imperative: Why you need to be thinking about texture

THC Drinks: The opportunity hiding in the drink aisle

Emotional Automation: The tech that will finally make dinner easier

Health Frustrations: Why ‘eating healthy’ is so difficult today

Ideas from the Future: Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Subscribe now

Products: Figure Ate Air-Dried Beef Biltong; EveryDaze Apple Cider Vinegar Crunch; Chuza Snack Mixes; Brine Time; Panfruit Freeze-Dried Cherry Tomatoes; Nomadic Yogurt & Oat Bars; The Tattooed Chef Dill Pickle Potato Pillows; Unicorn Bites Soft Baked Cookies; VanMan’s Remineralizing Chewing Gum; One Trick Pony Caramel Crunch Peanut Butter Popcorn; Starbucks Asia Hazelnut Praline Mille-Feuille Oatmilk Latte

The Crunch Imperative: You Need More Texture in Your Portfolio

In a time when we are drowning in functional claims and metabolic optimization, it’s interesting what gets the most buzz online: Dubai chocolate, freeze-dried fruit/candy, and chewy or crunchy beverages (see Starbuck’s Asia mille-feuille latte, pastry crumbs on top of a drink!).

I don’t think this is a fluke. In a world where every ingredient requires justification (is this clean label? does it support gut health? is it keto-friendly?) texture remains gloriously amoral. You can’t optimize crunch for wellness. It doesn’t balance hormones or reduce inflammation. It’s just pure sensory indulgence, and I think that’s why it’s surging.

Why Now?

OK, I take that back, I think there are three forces colliding to make texture so popular:

Ingredient scrutiny has reached exhaustion levels: Consumers get tired of evaluating every food choice against a mental spreadsheet of macros. We’re experiencing optimization fatigue, and fun textures offer an escape valve of pleasure that doesn’t require moral calculus.

Social media has made food a spectator sport: Texture-driven innovation hits multiple senses and translates so well to our social media-obsessed world. You can’t hear probiotics working, but you can absolutely hear the shatter of a perfectly crispy coating.

GLP-1 drugs are shrinking appetites but not desires: As consumption of traditional snack foods drops among GLP-1 users, the food industry faces a real issue: how do you satisfy people who eat less but still crave experience? Answer: Pack more sensory payoff into smaller volumes. A single, perfectly crunchy bite delivers satisfaction that a handful of soft snacks never could.

Texture is the great democratizer: While luxury produce and rare ingredients signal class and access, crunch is populist. A $2 bag of gas station chicharrones delivers the same textural satisfaction as a $25 appetizer at a trendy restaurant. Not only that, but multi-textured snacks can trick our brains into getting the same satisfaction from a snack as we get from a meal (important as more of us are snacking than sitting down to eat).

The Texture Opportunities

Seeing all the texture innovation that brands are pumping, you’d think we’ve already hit peak crunch. I don’t think so. We’re still in the early innings of the multi-textured moment and I think there are at least two opportunities brands should jump on:

Texture as the healthy indulgence gateway. Crunch is an indulgence loophole. It delivers pleasure without the guilt. Freeze-dried strawberries taste like candy and crunchy chickpeas make you feel like you’re eating chips. Your brain says, ‘oh, this feels like a treat’ even if you know better.

Compare that to functional ingredients, these require you to believe they work. While that’s all well and good, pleasure is key to repeat purchase. Stop trying to make healthy food acceptable via callouts, make it craveable through breakthrough texture innovation. Too many brands are just dumping probiotics and adaptogens on existing products with standard textures. I see a lot of white space in delivering these products in breakthrough textures.

Disrupting texturally boring categories

Look around at categories built on smooth, creamy, or soft. Yogurt, ice cream, pudding, even protein bars. Notice how they’re all suddenly desperate for textural contrast? Everyone has crunchy toppers, mix-ins, and layered inclusions. They’re not just trying to offering consumers more variety, they’re admitting that smooth alone has become boring. Being monotextured is like being monochromatic.**yawn**

The truth is that it might look like big brands are innovating on texture, but I’d say many are playing it safe because they’re trapped by their own infrastructure. They’re adding toppers and mix-ins because retooling entire production lines is expensive and risky. Remember how long it took traditional pot-set yogurt companies to pivot to Greek? That wasn’t a lack of vision, it was capital inertia.

For startups and challengers, the opportunity is realizing you don’t have legacy production lines to protect. You can engineer textures that traditional players literally can’t replicate without massive capital investment (yes, there is the co-man option but that distracts from their core). What I’m saying is now is the time to innovate in these ‘smooth’ categories and build exciting texture moats.

And for big players, this is a wake up call to recognize your vulnerabilities and convince your leadership to free up the capex to play in texture innovation ASAP.

Actions I’d Recommend Brands Take

1. Audit your portfolio for textural monotony. If everything in your line is one texture, you’re vulnerable and missing the moment. Find one product to re-engineer around texture, even if it seems counterintuitive to the category.

2. Make texture a marquee claim. Stop burying it in descriptor copy. “Shatteringly crisp” or “audibly crunchy” should appear as prominently as “high protein” or “plant-based.” Texture is huge benefit right now. Consumers shouldn’t have to try your product to discover its wow texture.

3. Design for ASMR. OK, maybe not gentle whispers and tapping fingernails, but your product development should include sonic testing. If it doesn’t make a satisfying noise, keep iterating. How do you get a texture that is shareable via social?

4. Think toppers, sauces, and layering. If you can’t re-engineer your core product, a stop-gap is to create a contrasting element that transforms it. Textural contrast is the new flavor pairing. Every smooth product wants a crunchy companion.

6. Price texture as premium. Freeze-drying, air-frying, specialized coatings, these aren’t cheap processes, and consumers will pay for the textural payoff. Don’t position crunch as a gimmick; position it as a benefit to pay for.

Products: Fuzzy Bones; Delta; Lab Rabbit THC Tea; Allen Iverson and Circle K; Rhythm Kush; Bifidice Probiotic Ice Cream; Leilo Kava Drink Mix; Alice Party Trick Mushroom Chocolates; WeCook Protein Chocolates; Plant People x Raaka Functional Chocolates; Recess Peppermint Bark ‘Tini

What Target Sees in THC Drinks

I can’t say that I’ve been diligently following the ebbs and flows of the cannabis industry, but a recent announcement made me very interested. Target said that they will start testing THC beverages in their Minnesota stores (although the MN attorneys general are trying to stop that; will Trump intervene? ). They are not alone: c-store chain Circle K is also rolling out hemp-derived THC drinks (under the Allen Iverson brand) to 3,000 stores in 2026.

What’s going on here?

Let’s start with some quick facts to catch you up: cannabis sales hit $40 billion last year, yet publicly traded companies are hemorrhaging revenue quarter over quarter. The industry narrative is bleak: receiverships, bankruptcies, unprofitability (much of it due to its quasi-legal status). Meanwhile, THC beverage sales are booming, projected to grow from $1.1 billion to $5.6 billion by 2035.

The issue doesn’t seem to be so much with the drug, but the format. THC beverages are succeeding because they’ve addressed something traditional cannabis (and honestly, most of the food and beverage industry) has missed: they’ve identified an under-served occasion and consumer and built a product around the job to be done, not the ingredient itself.

The Unexpected Core

Put away your pothead prejudices! The rise in THC drinks isn’t driven by Gen Z stoners, but a surprising group: parents of 3–5-year-olds. More specifically, women aged 30-40 are the fastest-growing segment, and the reason makes sense. THC beverage consumers report higher stress and worry levels than any other group.

You can see this in WHEN these drinks are opened. Consumption peaks after 5:30pm, often closer to 7:30pm (in other words, the kids are down for the night, I need to relax).

The Wine Replacement Nobody Predicted

Women are replacing evening wine with THC beverages because they don’t want the calories, alcohol, sugar, or next-day hangover.

Traditional cannabis has a hard time solving this. Smoking carries stigma and lingers in your hair when you’re trying to ‘adult.’ Edibles are a 90-minute guessing game, but beverages deliver what these consumers actually want: a quick acting, stress-relieving hit that doesn’t take them out of the game in case they have to parent. (Fun fact: these drinks often use a nano-emulsion technology that allows their effects to be felt in only 15 minutes.)

What This Means for Food & Beverage

You need to think Job to be Done, not ingredient-first. These consumers aren’t loyal to THC, they’re loyal to solving a problem. The window is wide open for brands to come in and steal this opportunity before it’s even populated.

For my Clients I recommend the following:

1. Own the 5:30–7:30 p.m. decompression window
This is the moment when overstimulated adults (often parents) need a 30-minute reset to transition them into the evening. Energy drinks own the morning through “getting more done,” and THC drinks are trying to claim the evening through “relaxation without regret.” But this white space is open season for other brands (food and beverage alike)

2. Redefine vice.
Maybe I’m just contrarian, but I don’t think the alcohol tradeoff is driven by morality as much as metabolism. Consumers aren’t rejecting booze because they’ve gone sober-curious, they’re rejecting inefficiency. Hangovers, inflammation, poor sleep, these are just bad ROI. They still want the ritual: making or opening a drink, the signal to unwind, the emotional permission to stop performing for the day. Whoever can deliver that release without the punishment the next morning wins (and if you can fit some decadence and indulgence in there, so much the better).

3. Design for the over-extended, not the over-optimized.
I think the impulse will be to make this into a Goop-like wellness thing. Stop! These are parents of preschoolers! They don’t have time for supplement stacks and woo-woo copy. They just want to open, sip, and exhale. In other words, she wants upgraded versions of what she’s used to enjoying in this moment, don’t get weird.

4. Price like a trade-up, not a treat.
A $4-6 beverage isn’t expensive when it replaces a $12 glass of wine and a sluggish morning. The economics of avoidance are powerful: no calories, no sugar crash, no hangover. Consumers will justify the premium if you show them the exchange rate: better evenings and better mornings. Your opportunity here is making your product feel like a smart upgrade, not a guilty splurge.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

The Coming Emotional Automation of Dinner

Over the years, I’ve worked on more brands than I can count that were trying to “solve dinner.” Budget meals, fancy sauces, meal kits, and quick-service restaurant strategies. However, none of them really did ‘solve’ it. I always chalked that up to fickle consumers, but now I think that’s not right.

It’s remarkable, really. We have more recipes, gadgets, pre-cut vegetables, and frozen meals than ever before, and yet getting dinner on the table seems like MORE of a struggle than ever. It seems to me that, if dinner were really an efficiency problem, it would’ve been solved decades ago.

That’s because, while the drudgery of cooking is real, I think it’s a red herring. The deeper issue, the real problem to solve, is about care.

Dinner as Emotional Bandwidth Collapse

Ever since the 1950s, everything in the food industry has been about chasing “faster” and “easier.” From Hamburger Helper to air fryers to meal kits, every wave of innovation has promised to shave time or friction off the process. But those are engineering solutions to an emotional problem. You can streamline cooking, but you haven’t removed the mental and emotional bandwidth issue.

By the time most people reach the kitchen, they’re already depleted. The mental tabs of the day are still all open: work deadlines, kids’ homework, the slow drain of logistics and guilt. Dinner becomes one more test of emotional endurance (i.e., anticipating family tastes, preventing conflict, and trying to manage the family).

People aren’t just tired of making dinner, they’re tired of having to care about it.

The Automation of Care

I think this is why meal delivery has soared while meal kits have stalled. Ordering takeout doesn’t just feed you, it lets you stop managing and caring about dinner. No pre-thought and prep, no negotiations on the ONE thing everyone will actually eat, and not one more end-of-day logistical balancing act (e.g., getting the chicken done at the same time as the rice). For 30 minutes, someone else takes responsibility.

Meal kits, by contrast, promise convenience but deliver homework. They cut out grocery shopping but leave the emotional and mental choreography intact.

Now, as food costs rise, the one ‘out’ that so many households had (delivery or eating at a restaurant) is becoming too expensive. So, millions of people are sliding back into the nightly grind: the emotional burden of preference, performance, and presentation.

The Dinner Concierge

Imagine a service that functions more like a household assistant than a delivery platform.

It doesn’t ask, “What’s for dinner?” Instead, it reads the room. It balances everyone’s preferences without asking, automatically pivots to quicker options on soccer practice nights, and remembers and updates family preferences to keep dinner interesting but peaceful. It won’t just order your groceries, it will make your weekly menus (adjusted on the fly based on your late meetings, what your kid ate for lunch at school today, the weather, etc.) and add a little extra if your daughter suddenly has a friend stop by or you need to brown bag it tomorrow. In other words, you can outsource the emotional and mental gymnastics.

Honestly, I think this future is coming quickly. Yes, it will be AI (likely the AI agents that every major tech company is talking about) but it won’t just be another recipe finder. Instead, the companies that truly “solve dinner” won’t just sell food, they’ll be emotional automation, systems that absorb the repetitive mental and emotional labor of feeding people.

Right now, who will deliver this is anyone’s guess. Retailers like Walmart and Amazon have technological reach and behavioral data, but it could also be OpenAI. Wonder, with its combination of Grubhub and Blue Apron, has the operational layer but not the in-home tech. But none of them have cracked the emotional side (yet). They all think of themselves as catman, not counselors.

The Food Industry’s Role

Where does that leave food companies, CPG, and QSR? Honestly, I really don’t know at this point. I see this future coming, but there are so many variables, it is difficult to say how food companies will play here. Probably on the edge of someone else’s operating system. Tech and retail will own the rails (the data, the personalization, the emotional modeling of the household), because I just can’t see a major food company pivoting into this space.

However, that doesn’t mean all food companies will be created equal in this future. The ones that get in early and learn to insert themselves, learn to play-nice with the operating systems, and master the SEO-like rules for this emotional automation, will come out on top. My point in writing this piece is to prepare all of you for this coming reality.

Product: Vitaminis Daily Greens Shot; Turmeric Co Collagen Support; Pressed 7 Day Gut Biome+; Kate’s Real Food Protein Bar Peanut Butter Brownie; Super Coffee Protein +; iPro Protein Water; Gruns Kids Superfood Greens Gummies; For Goodness Shakes Glow Collagen Protein Shakes.

The Impossible Task of Eating Right

There was a time (not long ago) when “eating well” was something that seemed achievable. You knew what counted as good behavior. Vegetables? Check. Whole grains and dairy? Check. The old food pyramid (or the Plate or even the food groups) gave everyone a clear checklist of health. But I think that world is rapidly disappearing.

Today, everyone knows they should vaguely eat better, but what does that mean? As social media fills with ‘experts’ and our own government officials fight about what ‘healthy’ means, we’ve lost the certainty of knowing that there is ONE right way.

The Dilemma That Never Ends

Into that void has stepped everyone from TikTok influencers to chiropractors. Healthy eating has become an infinite game. There’s no stable definition, no consensus. “Healthy” is constantly being redefined by what it isn’t (no seed oils, no sugar, no carbs, no preservatives) or what it should be (organic, grass-fed, regenerative, less processed). Every new study or influencer changes the rules and introduces more doubt.

Food is no longer fuel or pleasure, it’s a probability exercise. Every meal is a negotiation between what expert you trust more, incomplete data, fuzzy numbers, and a vague sense that you’re always either helping or hurting your future self (but you’re not sure which).

There’s no confirmation, no metrics that feel real. So, for consumers that don’t just give up, they keep playing, hoping the next product, next diet trend, or rule will finally let them ‘win.’

Mental Shortcuts and Crumbling Stability

To cope, people invent personal nutritional algorithms: “Avoid fast food.” “Buy organic when possible.” “Eat clean.”

These shortcuts offer temporary control. They feel manageable, until they’re not. One documentary, one new headline, one scandal, and the ground shifts again. Your safe foods become suspect.

For health-conscious people, the result is constant low-grade anxiety. Food, which used to be a comfort, now lives in the same psychological category as taxes: something you can’t ignore, can’t master, but your always worried you’re getting wrong (and there will be consequences!).

Enter the Completable Task

I think that’s one reason why the market for functional, nutrient-dense products has exploded. Protein everything, green powders, prebiotic sodas, and magnesium gummies, they don’t just sell nutrients, they sell the hope of finally ‘checking the box.’

Each one gives you a measurable win: a scoop, a gram count, a verified label. More protein, more greens, all the vitamins. These products transform eating into something you can complete. A single act that closes the loop (or at least gets you measurably further) in an otherwise endless pursuit of “healthy.”

The Trust Inversion

However, here’s the paradox that so interesting to me: consumers have never distrusted industrial food more, and yet we are now buying more industrially produced nutrition than ever. We reject “ultra-processed,” but buy powders and bars that are the very definition of it.

Why? Because those products come with trust and numbers. They turn uncertainty into data: 10 grams, 200% DV, clinically verified, lab tested. Real food, by contrast, is messy and opaque. You can’t tell how much magnesium is in your kale. Can you trust that the labels on your food are actually true anymore? In a world of food ambiguity, a quantified scoop, bar or gummy feels like truth.

What CPG Leaders Should Know

If you’re selling nutrient density or fortification, you’re not selling vitamins or macros, you’re selling relief from the perpetual uncertainty of modern eating. Consumers don’t want to decode health anymore; they want to feel done. Your job isn’t to educate them into clarity, it’s to design clarity.

Here’s how:

Ritual is the moat
The feeling of completion is the true differentiator. Every powder, bar, or shot needs a ritual moment that signals, “you did it.” Think progress bars, finish-line language (“your daily done”), or simple, consistent cues that reinforce closure. The ritual, not the formula, locks in loyalty.
Speak the language of certainty
Replace vague wellness talk with verifiable statements: measurable, time-bound, repeatable. “Daily check mark for your gut” is more powerful than “supports digestive balance.” The message should make health feel solvable in a single act.
Subscription monetizes aspiration, not consumption
You’re not selling units, you’re selling momentum. The continuity itself (the never-miss feeling) is the product. Frame it around identity (“people who never skip their health”) rather than logistics.
Simplicity is the signal of truth
Don’t mirror the chaos consumers are escaping with endless ingredient panels and competing claims. Fewer ingredients, one clear benefit, one verified promise. Complexity reads as doubt, clarity reads as competence.
MAHA and beyond
As new regulation meets pseudoscience and social confusion, people will anchor to whatever feels concrete. The winners will translate complexity into confidence, brands that simplify the science without dumbing it down.
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Products: Salty Provisions Savory Electrolyte Broth; Mala Girl Broth Superpowders; Fond Cleanse Bone Broths; History of Posca

IDEAS FROM THE FUTURE

Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Signals from the Shelf

Products: Nira Smith + Algae Cooking Club; Linear Bars; Erewhon+ Elissa Goodman bars; Red Bull and Grenade advent calendars

GUT REACTION

Products: Zotter Brains & Eggs Bar; Reynolds Wrap Dubai Chocolate Turkey; Frito-Lay Simply NKD; Sparkling Ice Cuties; EZBombs

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Hormel gives up control of Justin’s brand to private equity firm Forward Consumer Products

Walmart buys latest shopping center as US chains push to own their stores

Panthers Bubbly, Jets Wine, Manning Whiskey: The Sports Booze Boom

GLP-1 users ‘a friend’ to convenience channel

Beyond Meat soars 146% after addition to meme ETF, Walmart deal

Din Tai Fung earns more per restaurant than any other chain in the US

Turkey prices are up 40% since last year due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)

General Mills bets big on overlooked consumers to drive next wave of growth

Oreo-maker Mondelez will use AI for TV ads next year

Deli Meats See Record Price Bump as Grocery Costs Keep Rising

Why People Are Stealing Chick-fil-A’s French Fry Oil (video)

Grocery retailer Lidl now operates more EV charging stations than entire countries

Danone Reports Sales Rise on China Growth

Chipotle stock craters as company says young people without jobs can’t afford their food anymore

Food companies can now certify their products as free from ultraprocessed ingredients

Amazon sees success with customers buying ‘milk alongside electronics,’ CEO says

Americans are going back to cheap, simple beer

Should grocers add a GLP-1 filter for online shoppers? Thrive Market thinks so.

Interesting

Some 60,000 kids have avoided peanut allergies due to landmark 2015 advice, study finds

80% of US workers now say they work in a toxic environment

RFK Jr to urge Americans to eat more saturated fats, alarming health experts

Malawi’s new farmhand: AI that speaks the local language

How Shirley Temple became the flavor of 2025

Nike is trying to sell you ‘mind-body’ shoes

AI is driving huge productivity gains for large companies, while small companies get left behind

Nearly 1 in 5 urinary tract infections linked to contaminated meat, study finds

Food industry prepares to fight MAHA in states

The Lengths Americans Are Willing to Go to Make Every Penny Count

The Surgeon General Nominee Who Wants to Make MAHA Moms Mainstream

Eli Lilly blows past estimates, hikes guidance as Zepbound and Mounjaro sales soar

US obesity rates are dropping as GLP-1 use increases

Hims to begin selling GLP-1 microdosing treatments

Fun & Odd

YouGov looks at food arguments that divide America: like what is the best way to cut a sandwich

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5 Ways AI is Actually Changing CPG (and What's Currently Just Hype)

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 19 Oct 2025 21:15:00 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Premium Struggle Meals: Why Plussed-Up Ramen is So Hot Right Now

Separating AI Hype from Hope: Where AI is already working

GLP-1 Opportunities: Finding Growth in (Weight) Loss

Ideas from the Future: Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Products: Mike’s Mighty Good Chicken Bone Broth Ramen; Churn Butter; Lewis Protein Bread; Vepo Cheez’Up High Protein Cheese; Crave New World Kroger rollout; Glen Powell’s Smash Kitchen condiments; Onoin Chopped Onions in Olive Oil; Noodles Brothless Chili Garlic Ramen.

Guilt-Free Struggle Meals: How Premium Ramen Lets Us Eat Cheap Without Feeling Broke

Food prices are up 29% since February 2020, and over half of Americans now say grocery costs are a major source of stress for them. People are skipping breakfast, eating more spaghetti, and making smaller, more frequent grocery trips with more coupons.

Not surprising, struggle meals are showing up on more consumers’ tables. But here’s the thing: after a decade of wellness optimization, nutrient density obsessions, and “food as medicine,” we can’t just go back to 39-cent Top Ramen or Kraft singles on white bread without having an existential crisis about seed oils and sodium.

So, I think consumers have found a workaround: premium components that let’s them dress up bare-bones meals.

The latest surge in premium instant ramen is a great example. Companies like Mike’s Mighty Good and Immi might be 10X more than their dime-priced ancestors that you ate in college, but they are still radically cheaper than the meal alternatives inflation has made unaffordable (even a Big Mac meal now costs $10-12!). Suddenly, $3-6 for “craft” ramen feels both thrifty and discerning simultaneously, cool trick!

But it’s not just ramen. It’s the $8 cultured, herbed butter on your plain noodles or grilled cheese. The squirt of organic, celebrity-owned ketchup on your hot dog. Slices of the protein bread ($5) that make a simple sandwich feel plussed-up.

The Two-Track Struggle Meal Economy:

Beyond simply trading down to basic value products or cutting out certain foods altogether, there are two ways Americans are navigating expensive grocery bills right now, and both involve tactical upgrading:

Track 1: The Fully Upgraded Struggle Meal
Just buy the premium version of the cheap thing. The $12 frozen pizza with “wood-fired crust” and “San Marzano tomatoes” instead of Totino’s. The $6 canned soup that says “small-batch” on the label. These products cost 3-5x more than their budget counterparts (and might be private label), but they’re still massively cheaper than restaurant meals or even grocery store prepared foods. More importantly, they’re expensive enough that you feel like you’re making a choice, not a compromise.

Track 2: The Component Swap
This is where I find it gets even more interesting. People aren’t abandoning classic struggle meals like grilled cheese and tomato soup, rice and beans, or ramen with an egg. They’re just upgrading one element (either through a wellness or indulgence lens) to make the whole thing feel intentional.

The math is smart: spend $15 on three premium components that you can stretch across a week of cheap meals, and suddenly you’re not eating poorly, you’re being culinarily savvy. Post it on Instagram with the right caption and you’ve transformed poverty into performance.

Why This Matters:

1. The Wellness Trap Is Economic

We’ve spent 15 years being told that cheap food will kill us, that sodium, seed oils, processed carbs, and preservatives are dietary villains. This created an impossible bind: inflation made healthy eating unaffordable, but wellness culture made cheap eating unacceptable.

The “premium struggle meal” category exists to resolve this contradiction. These products aren’t actually cheaper (they’re 3-10x more expensive than traditional budget staples), but they’re wrapped in enough health signaling (organic! grass-fed! protein! vitamins!) that buying them feels like self-care rather than penny-pinching. You’re not downgrading your diet, you’re optimizing it. The price premium isn’t waste, it’s investment in your microbiome, or longevity, or whatever wellness concept you’re into.

2. Inflation Created a Permission Crisis

We’ve been culturally conditioned to believe that “eating cheap” means moral failure. Budget cooking used to be about thriftiness and domestic competence, now it reads as either poverty or not caring enough about your health.

The component-swap strategy solves this. You’re not eating “rice and beans because you’re poor,” you’re eating “Carolina Gold rice with beans because you appreciate heirloom grains.” You’re not making grilled cheese because it’s cheap, you’re exploring the interplay of cultured butter and aged cheddar (on cheap bread with canned soup, but still). Same meal, completely different narrative. The premium component gives you permission to eat cheaply by reframing the entire experience as intentional rather than constrained.

3. The Real Product Isn’t Food, It’s Identity Preservation

The genius of all this isn’t better ingredients, it’s that these products let cost-conscious consumers maintain their aspirational identity while spending less than they used to.

Each premium component transforms the context of everything around it. Canned beans become part of a “pantry cooking” narrative. Instant noodles become a vehicle for “clean protein.” Frozen pizza becomes “supporting small producers.”

What This Means for Brands:

I’m sure you get by now that the opportunity isn’t just about ramen. It’s in every category where inflation has forced us to downgrade but wellness culture makes us feel guilty about it.

Smart brands should create “premium budget” tiers AND “plus-up components,” products that are:

Cheaper than the pre-inflation norm
More expensive than the true budget option
Designed to make a cheap meal feel expensive
Wrapped in enough health/sustainability signaling to preserve consumer identity
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5 Ways AI is Actually Changing CPG (and what is Currently Just Hype)

Three recent reports dropped that perfectly capture the AI chaos and confusion we’re living through.

First: the number of companies running fully AI-led processes nearly doubled last year. Good news, right? Then MIT released a study showing 95% of organizations see no measurable ROI from their AI investments. And finally, HBR found that 40% of employees now spend nearly two hours daily cleaning up AI-generated “workslop” from their colleagues.

So which is it? Is AI working, or is this the emperor’s new algorithm?

I get asked this constantly. Usually over dinner with a client: “You’re dealing with a lot of companies, how do you think we’re doing on AI compared to them? Are we behind?”

The honest answer? Most companies are using AI, but the results are wildly uneven. Some have found genuine pockets of value: real workflow improvements, actual cost savings, measurable wins. Others are still searching, running experiments, hitting roadblocks, and cancelling projects. And then there are companies that are just performing expensive AI theater for Wall Street, burning cash on projects no one wants to admit aren’t working.

But I preface everything by saying: it’s still early days. If we’re comparing this to the internet, we’re still in the dial-up phase. Anyone declaring “AI is a nothingburger” or “AI will save us all” is ridiculous. The technology is amazing, but we don’t know yet where and how it will revolutionize the business world.

But I can speak to CPG specifically. I’ve worked with enough clients on instituting AI strategies to have an opinion on where AI is genuinely working (and where it’s not). Let’s start with the upside.

(Full transparency: My company partners with AI platforms in our innovation planning work, companies like Tastewise; I’m actually doing a webinar with them on Oct 21, check it out).

Way #1: Trade Promotion Optimization (AKA: Stop Lighting Money on Fire)

For decades, CPG brands ran promotions because “that’s what we do in Q3” or “Kroger demanded it.” Nobody knew if they worked. We just kept going because stopping felt scarier than continuing.

AI gives real answers: Which promotions drive incremental sales versus just subsidizing purchases that would’ve happened anyway? Which retailers deliver ROI? Does BOGO beat 25% off? You get the idea.

Result? Companies are cutting 15-30% of ineffective promotion spending and redirecting it to things that actually move product. I’m seeing companies make real money here, it’s not hype.

Way #2: Portfolio Surgery (Deciding What Lives and What Dies)

AI is doing what brands should regularly do but can never seem to: kill dead-weight SKUs.

It analyzes purchase data, cannibalization, retailer compliance, margins, and velocity to tell you exactly which SKUs are just bloating your supply chain.

I’ve had the thought multiple times in the last year that this may actually revive moonshot culture. You can’t innovate when 60% of your pipeline is the 9th flavor iteration of your 12th most popular line. AI tells you what to destroy so you have room to create (as long as that money is allocated back correctly, huge caveat!).

Way #3: Trend Detection at Velocity (Augmented Teams Seeing the Future, Faster)

AI platforms that process billions of data points (search queries, social mentions, menu data, restaurant trends, sales patterns) can identify emerging ingredients, formats, and flavor profiles while they’re still forming, not after they’ve peaked. The difference between catching something like hot honey when it’s on 200 menus and a handful of packaged products versus 20,000 menus and ubiquitous is the difference between owning a trend and and being a boring ‘me too.’

The technology surfaces signals faster than any human team could manually track. However, this isn’t about replacing teams, it’s about augmenting them. When I go in to work with clients on building opportunity frameworks and strategies, we use AI to see further faster, but we still need the human collaboration to connect the final dots and join hands toward making sustainable plan.

With AI’s help you can see more and manage more dots than your competitor, which is going to push you to the front of the pack.

Way #4: Hyper-Local Assortment Prediction (The Private Label Killer)

Private label has been winning because they own the channel and can customize assortment by store in ways national brands couldn’t (i.e., they have the data). But AI could change that for manufacturers.

AI predicts which specific SKUs will succeed in which specific stores based on hundreds of variables (local demographics, weather, competitor presence, traffic patterns, basket composition, event calendars, etc.).

Which of your 12 protein bar flavors belongs in a specific 7-Eleven in Wichita? AI knows. More importantly, it knows which three shouldn’t be there, freeing space for ones that will actually sell. This reduces out-of-stocks and overstock simultaneously.

Way #5: Reformulation Acceleration (The R&D Multiplier)

Instead of bench scientists running 200 iterations to remove a food dye or reduce sodium while maintaining color and taste, AI predicts which 8 formulations will likely work. Then you can test those eight and shorten your launch to six months instead of two years.

This is how the best companies will respond to UPF regulations, GLP-1 dietary needs, and clean label demands simultaneously instead of sequentially over the next decade.

The best companies aren’t using AI to replace R&D creativity, they are using it to remove the grunt work that kills speed and burns out their best people. I’ve seen brands using AI-assisted formulation launching products 2-3x faster than traditional methods.

The Stuff That’s Actually Hype (For Now)

What about AI-generated social content, chatbot customer service, “personalized” recommendations, AI-designed packaging, and hyper-personalized marketing?

I’m not going to dismiss them as purely hype, they’re just not ready for prime time yet. AI agents and true personalization will undoubtedly be a big deal in the near future. But right now, most implementations I’ve seen are half-baked. Consumers spot hollow AI-generated content and tune it out. Chatbots that can’t go beyond FAQ scripts create frustration. “Personalized” recommendations that are really just basic segmentation feel creepy and lazy, not personal.

The most successful companies I’ve seen using AI were the ones that took the time to set detailed strategies on where to invest and where to experiment, then piloted carefully (versus just stumbling through it).

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Oxo Bone Broth; JimmyBar Creatine Protein Bar; ForAll Water+Protein; Equip Prime Bar Re-brand; TruBar GLP-1-Friendly ; Born Simple Protein Bowl; Bio & Me Fibre+Protein; Unwell Hydration Sachets; BioCare High Protein Snacks; OceanMist Roastables. ToDo Fiber+Protein Drink

GLP-1 Opportunities I See Right Now

I know everyone is probably sick of reading the same reports about how GLP-1 drugs are going to destroy the food and beverage industry (like the CPG industry needs another existential crisis right now). So, let’s look at the other side. What categories will GLP-1 grow or create in the near future? I have thoughts.

OPPORTUNITY #1: Muscle Preservation Systems (Not Just “More Protein”)

Yes, you can get thinner on GLP-1, but you can also get weaker. GLP-1 users lose 25-40% of weight as lean muscle mass. While eating more protein is potentially a way around this, the opportunity here for brands is to develop more targeted solutions. I think muscle retention will be big business not just for consumers on GLP-1, but more broadly for our aging population (Quick fact: After age 30, you begin to lose as much as 3% to 5% muscle mass per decade.).

Leucine-optimized products. The amino acid leucine is ideal for keeping muscle. Few CPG brands are marketing this specifically (yet). Interestingly, whey protein isolate beats plant protein for muscle retention (unless the plant protein has added leucine), a benefit I’m surprised dairy isn’t talking about more.

Creatine-fortified foods. The creatine hype has already started, but it’s currently more of a general ‘magic powder’ in search of a mainstream benefit. Research shows that creatine preserves muscle when you’re not eating a lot of calories, so it could be a real win for GLP-1 users.

Collagen + protein hybrids. Honestly, I’m shocked this hasn’t been a bigger marketing push. GLP-1 users report “Ozempic face” (skin sagging from rapid weight loss) and collagen is commonly known as helping with skin elasticity. The benefit kind of speaks for itself (which it will have to because I don’t think there are clinicals here yet).

OPPORTUNITY #2: Side-Effect Mitigation Foods

About 25% or more of people on GLP-1 drugs experience a side effect. Often, they are self-medicating to deal with these but there is an opportunity to wrap a solution into a food/bev product.

Anti-nausea products. Nausea is the #1 complaint on GLP-1 drugs but I’m not seeing a purpose-built “GLP-1 nausea relief” product. Why not gum? Studies show that gum sales jumped 14.6% among GLP-1 users (likely to help with Ozempic breath or the oral fixation), but why not for nausea relief?

Constipation solutions. This one seems like a bolt-on for any brand that is currently talking about fiber or pre/probiotics. Or what about magnesium beverages? This is a bigger need than just GLP-1 users, so lots of opportunity here.

Electrolyte replacement. Dehydration is a serious risk for GLP-1 users (as in, they are more likely to have seizures and cramps because of it). So, while current electrolyte products are positioned for hangovers (Liquid I.V.), athletics (Gatorade), or illness (Pedialyte), I’m surprised we aren’t seeing more products (or at least targeted marketing) for GLP-1 users.

Gastroparesis management. For GLP-1 users their stomachs are slow to empty (aka gastroparesis) and things can get backed up. Consumers need easily digestible, nutrient-dense foods. Snack companies have jumped on this quickly and are trying to push bars here, but honestly many people on GLP-1 might find them too sweet. My thought is that bone broths, protein beverages and pureed high-protein soups make more sense, they help with the nutrients and offer electrolytes.

OPPORTUNITY #3: “Transition Foods” for Cycling Users

Many GLP-1 patients cycle on and off due to cost, side effects, or reaching their goal weight. A Circana study earlier this year found that when people stop taking GLP-1 drugs their grocery spending returns to normal in a year. Nobody’s building for the discontinuous user (the on-off cycler)! We need products that work during:

Ramp-up (months 1-3: severe nausea, tiny portions, maximum side effects)
Maintenance (months 4-12: normal-ish eating, learning new patterns)
Ramp-down (off the drug, avoiding rebound weight gain)

This is greenfield territory. The entire supplement and diet food industry is built for continuous use. GLP-1s are inherently intermittent by nature (long-term microdosing is still murky business).

OPPORTUNITY #4: Low-Effort Fresh Meal Components

When on GLP-1, many people say they don’t like the taste of processed food and also see the act of eating to be a chore. Not surprisingly then, research shows that GLP-1 users have typically increase their spending in fresh grocery and deli and decrease it in frozen. So there is the opportunity: give these folks pre-prepped components for assembling meals, that taste fresh but don’t require a lot of effort.

The early winners here will be:

Pre-cooked, pre-seasoned proteins (rotisserie chicken, smoked salmon, hard-boiled eggs, already exist but need repositioning)
Pre-cut vegetable medleys with portion guidance printed on pack
“Assembly-only” grain bowls (everything’s cooked, you just combine)
Protein portions in 4-6 oz packs (not family-size, not single-serving, right-sized for one GLP-1 meal)

While CPG can do all of this, deli is very well positioned to win here (but I don’t see them capitalizing on it!).

OPPORTUNITY #5: Single-Serve Premium Everything

This is an opportunity but also a potential warning.

The fact that GLP-1 users move to smaller portions is well-known, so we see a lot of brands lining up to offer single-serve everything (it also helps that it aligns with current margin issues).

However, before I talk about this as a place for innovation, let me take a second to ponder what this reality might mean for the future of bulk sizes. Does a family that previously purchased the 52-ounce bag of corn chips at Costco continue to do so when mom and/or dad is on Wegovy? Are GLP-1 drugs an existential crisis for bulk retailers? (Note to self to talk to my Nielsen friends about any data here).

OK, back to single serve. The insight is: GLP-1 users eat less but they’re not broke (something the food industry rarely sees). In fact, these consumers are disproportionately higher income. They’ll pay for premium, properly portioned, beautiful packaging. GLP-1 users aren’t just eating less, I like to think of it as they are curating scarcity. Every bite matters when you only eat 800 calories a day. This creates a willingness to pay 3x as much for things that have nothing to do with traditional premium positioning:

Zero friction waste. Not “small size” but “exactly what I’ll finish size.” The psychological tax of throwing away food becomes unbearable when eating is already difficult. I wonder whether packaging that preserves the remaining 80% is worth 3x the price?

Higher quality, lower volume. Quick aside: I remember a consumer telling me years ago that they spent a fortune on organic vegetables for their pet turtle because ‘he is so small and eats so little, what he eats needs to be the best.’ I think a similar logic is happening here. These consumers aren’t eating much, so what goes in should be high quality. That might me organic or nutrient-dense, but it could also mean a small chunk of 40-month aged Parmigiano Reggiano over cheap cheddar.

Decision removal. “What portion should I eat?” is an exhausting daily negotiation with appetite signals that no longer work. Pre-portioned isn’t just convenience, it’s cognitive offloading to the package. The format becomes the feature.

IDEAS FROM THE FUTURE

Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Insight:
Personalization remains the consumer holy grail, yet most “personalized” systems are really mass customization. True personalization requires a living model that learns and adapts with every new data point.

Marketplace:
Digital twin technology (building a digital ‘double’ and then experimenting on it) is entering consumer health at scale. Once reserved for industrial use, it now powers emerging health platforms like Twin Health. The technology is ready for the mainstream.

Business Model:
NutriTwin operates as a subscription-based platform that integrates with wearable devices, at-home diagnostics, and ongoing testing (DNA, microbiome, blood chemistry). Revenue comes from multiple sources:

-Subscription Tiers: Core app access with paid upgrades for advanced insights, deeper analytics, and customized meal/supplement plans.

-Hardware Integration: Optional connected wearables or testing kits for data collection and periodic recalibration of the digital twin.

-Data Monetization: Aggregated, anonymized data sold to partners (e.g., CPG and retailers).

-Partner Ecosystem: Imagine product placement and recommendation fees from supplement and food/beverage brands directly in the platform.

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Rich’s Happy Orchard; Plenish Zero Sugar Oat; Minor Figures Regenerative Barista Oat; Smucker’s sues Trader Joe’s

GUT REACTION

Products: DunkaPoos; Smash It! Salmon Superfood Balls; Barebells Protein Soda; Aldi UK Sandwich Cake; FreezCake;

TIDBITS

Food Industry

In bad news for protein-hungry Americans, beef is more expensive than ever

Trump Says He’s ‘Worked Our Magic’ on Deal to Lower Beef Prices

Craft Breweries Struggle as Sales and Appetites Wane

Startups Are Eating Big Food’s Lunch

Inside Domino’s first refresh in a decade — including its ‘cravemark’

Tyra Banks says she is launching a ‘hot ice cream,’ no one knows what she’s talking about

Wendy’s Unveils Turnaround to Revitalize Brand

Lay’s drastically rebrands after disturbing finding: 42% of consumers didn’t know their chips were made out of potatoes

Meet Fluffy Coke: The Drink That’s Even Better Than Dirty Soda

OpenAI to offer Walmart products for sale through ChatGPT

Nestle jumps 8% after consumer goods giant announces plans to slash 16,000 jobs

Your Daily Protein Shake Might Be Exposing You to Lead, Consumer Reports Finds

Walmart, Once a Byword for Low Pay, Becomes a Case Study in How to Treat Workers

Papa John’s jumps on Apollo’s bid t take it private

Protein bar company BUILT Bar explores sale, sources say

Little cheer for Pernod as US, Chinese quarterly sales slide

Mondelēz-backed startup reaches breakthrough for lab-grown chocolate

Interesting

Who supports the MAHA movement—polling insights

RFK Jr.’s new dietary guidelines could be controversial. Here’s what to watch for

Steak, Butter and Ice Cream: MAHA Sets Up Fight Over Saturated Fat

Yuka brings aspartame fight to the US

Hell Hath No Fury Like a Coffee Drinker in 2025

Chinese trend: paying companies to help you ‘pretend to work’

Whole Foods announces their 2026 Trend predictions

GoFundMe CEO says the economy is so bad that more of his customers are crowdfunding just to pay for their groceries

K-shaped economy: Why the wealthy are thriving as most Americans fall behind

The Underrated Power of ‘Glue Employees’ Who Hold Everything Together

Old-School Grocery Items That Are Making A Comeback Because Of Inflation

Instagram Is Launching Its Own Awards for Creators: “Rings”

Something Weird Is Happening With Halloween Chocolate

The Human Cost of Healthy Eating

44% of adults admit to ordering from the kids’ menu for themselves

Scientists Are Testing a Vaccine for Food Poisoning. It Can’t Come Soon Enough

Weight-loss drugs and MAHA are hammering US sugar beet farmers

Scientists Confirm Widespread Microplastics in Milk and Cheese

How Smelling Like a Doughnut Became the Latest Body Care Craze

Chinese Irish Spice Bags Take the World (Kevin’s thought: Irish spice bags are a trend just waiting to take off in the US!)

Fun & Odd

The Top 25 Food Culture Trends That Defined the Past 25 Years

How Trunk-or-Treat Took Over American Suburbs

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The Dark Truths Behind Consumer Choices

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 05 Oct 2025 21:26:46 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

We Need to Talk About Adult Snacking: It’s not OK

Dark Truths: Brands Must See the Whole Consumer

The Cult of Protein: Savior or Stagnation?

Ideas from the Future: Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Products: Green & Sunny Mee Krob snacks; Callie’s Hot Little Biscuit Biscuit Crackers; Mocean Functional Energy Beverages; Kettle Krinkle; Ferrero Rocher Chocolate Squares; Freestyle Pickle Chips; 5Gum x KATSEYE Multisensory Collection; CANS soda; Ginsters Pastry Toasties; Sakuraco Nikko’s Autumn Splendor Snack Box.

The New Levers for Adult Snacking

Everything is a snack now. That’s a reality that’s not going away. However, the ‘snackification of meals’ is still a relatively new thing and, in many ways, we’re still dealing with a lot of snacking inertia from ‘olden days.’

Turn the clock back 25 years ago, or any time before, and snacks were always 1. a sometimes treat (i.e., usually just indulgence) and 2. mostly for kids (or maybe all-family). In fact, I would contend that when it comes to innovation, we are still mostly stuck in this frame.

Specifically, we haven’t really created a modern way of thinking about adult snacking. We are playing around the edges, but too many “adult snacks” are just aged-up kid snacks (e.g., charcuterie trays are really just Lunchables, organic cheesy tortilla chips, etc.).

To find new opportunities, and spur innovation, I’ve been looking at what is driving (or not driving) young adults today in snacking. This will help us find new opportunities for growth. So, in no particular order, here is what I’m seeing:

1. The Infantilization Backlash (Or: I’m 34 and I Will Not Eat Goldfish at My Desk)

There’s quiet discontent simmering among thirtysomethings: the sense that culture insists on treating them like children.

Think about it:

“Adulting” was recently added to Webster’s Collegiate dictionary
The “kidult” trope dominates in media (grown-ups buying toys, binging cartoons, or wanting video game-inspired foods)
Workplaces try to pacify employees with ping pong tables instead of real wages.

Against that backdrop, a sophisticated, adult snack becomes a rebellion. Choosing olive oil crackers over Goldfish isn’t just about taste, it’s a way to perform adulthood in a world where traditional milestones like home ownership or career ladders feel out of reach. Consumption, not property deeds, becomes the marker of adulthood.

Opportunity: Modern adult snacks that act as markers of maturity, subtle rebellions that signal taste, discernment, and self-respect.

2. The Screen Ritual Issue

Every pause in the day has been colonized by screens. Coffee break = scrolling. Lunch = Slack. Dinner = YouTube. The rituals of daily life that used to involve presence (pauses, shared meals, mindful indulgence) have been hollowed out or absorbed by digital behaviors.

Snacks can respond in two opposite, but equally valid, ways:

Escape snacks: Designed to pull you off the screen (think individually wrapped chocolates that demand slow unwrapping or pistachios that make you crack shells). Formats that create friction and force presence.
Integration snacks: Designed to work with the screen (ex: one-handed formats for gaming or snacks with pacing cues that sync to streaming). TikTok-friendly foods where the ritual of dipping, grabbing, or mixing becomes part of the content itself.

Right now, we’re not building intentionally for either.

Opportunity: There is a place for real adult rituals in modern, adult snacks. However, brands should pick a side: engineered either as deliberate screen escapes or purposeful screen companions.

3. The Explainability Tax

Clean labels are no longer enough. Provenance, sourcing, and sustainability have moved from differentiators to table stakes. What’s emerging now is a new layer: explainability (yes, I know that’s not a real word). For Millennials and Gen Z, ignorance itself feels immature and naive. Unlike other generations that felt that companies and governments were making the right decisions for them, today’s youngest generations know the responsibility for verifying the truth is now on them.

That means snacks need radical specificity: not just “ethically sourced,” but which farm, what labor model, even live data on soil health or carbon offsets. Transparency is no longer static copy on the back panel, it’s dynamic, scan-and-verify proof that turns snacks into data-rich narratives (see the Banza CleanScan example in Signals from the Shelf below).

This isn’t only about ethics. Provenance itself is becoming part of the luxury. A cashew from Kerala tastes different because of terroir and drying methods, and that story is part of the pleasure. Snacks don’t just carry values, they carry knowledge that can be performed and shared.

Opportunity: Modern adult snacks should move beyond clean labels into explainability, snacks as data-rich, narratable, and even performative objects of taste.

4. The Anti-Optimization Backlash

We live in an age of relentless optimization; biohacking, protein bars, and “functional” chips. There is place for these, but adults are tired. They want at least one corner of life that isn’t about efficiency, and some of their snacks should do this.

The most sophisticated snacks may be those that do nothing (that’s the indulgence!) food that is allowed to just be good. A perfectly salted potato chip. A hunk of aged cheese. Bread with cultured butter. Their value is in their non-functionality uselessness.

Opportunity: Modern adult snacks positioned as deliberate inefficiencies, well-made luxuries of pure pleasure with no productivity angle.

5. Loneliness Cures

Remote work, longer delays in coupling/family formation, and fractured social ties are leading to a huge uptick in loneliness. Without that people connection, solo snacking is replacing meals. Not in a joyful way, but in a “I guess I should eat something” way.

Adult snacks can not only lean into solitary indulgence without shame but make it more engaging and interactive. A small tin of candied pecans with a back panel of tasting notes. A half-dozen truffles that have a QR code that links to a YouTube video where you can watch the story of their production. The ice cream pint designed to reflect the flavors and themes raised in a specific episode of a Netflix series. Alternatively, brands can design snacks that are easy solutions for social get-togethers, something that not only tastes good and gives a good impression but also facilitates the connection for a generation less accustom to hosting.

Opportunity: Modern adult snacks should be unapologetically designed for one: curated, portioned, and elevated for solo enjoyment. Alternatively, there should be snacks that help ease social connections.

6. Aesthetic Agreement

Snacks exist in space, not just in mouths. They sit on our desks, in our bags and purses, and in our Instagram feeds. Whereas many brands design themselves to standout on shelves, there is a new wave of products that consider how their packaging will also fit in the consumer’s surroundings. Consider successful brands like Method soap, Graza, or even Olipop.

Doritos bags clash with Scandinavian desks. Matte black tins, linen pouches, or ceramic vessels blend in. When the outside world feels uncontrollable, your snack packaging can still match your design philosophy.

Opportunity: Adult snacks that are curated to belong and fit in with modern adult environments, an aesthetic choice as much as a taste one.

Adulting Snacking Future

The real opportunity isn’t in more flavors of popcorn or another adult Lunchable. It’s in building snacks with what adults of today really need and want. I worry the category will stall if it keeps just aging up kid food instead of taking the time to really listen to the young adults today.

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BEST PRACTICES

The Dark Truths Behind Consumer Choices (That Brands Pretend Don’t Exist)

A few years ago, my team was working with a small pet food company to build their innovation pipeline. Like many teams, they wanted to focus on the uplifting side of pet ownership: love, bonding, the joy they bring to the family. But as we dug into consumer behavior to develop potential opportunities, something obvious kept surfacing: premium treats were often used as guilt offset. Owners left their pets alone all day, skipped walks, and felt that nagging sense of neglect, and the treat was a way to quickly appease their guilt.

The team didn’t want to hear it. They rejected the insight outright. They insisted it didn’t fit their positive brand values and didn’t even want it in the final recommendations deck. I’ve seen this a lot in my career: companies love positive consumer truths, but they recoil from the darker ones, even when those hold the largest potential for future innovation.

I’ve seen this in countless other categories:

Kid’s BFY as guilt assuager: Like the pet food example. Organic pouches and “clean” snacks are not just about nourishment; they often soothe parents’ guilt about relying on convenience.
Fast Food as Lever of Control and Autonomy: For people with very little control over their daily lives (shift workers, caretakers, the economically disadvantaged) fast food isn’t just about value or speed, it’s about power. When your schedule is dictated by someone else’s needs, when every decision requires justification, a drive-thru order is different. You want it, you get it, exactly how you want it. No one questions it. For five dollars and three minutes, you are in control.
Supplements mediating the fear of mortality: The supplement category frames itself around optimization: stronger immunity, better focus, healthier aging. But dig deeper, and you’ll find much of the energy comes from fear: fear of mortality, of losing control, of decline. Pills and powders are often talismans, rituals to reassure ourselves that we’re not passive in the face of inevitable aging and death.

These are the uncomfortable truths of consumption and they shouldn’t be avoided in your brand conversations. If you only look for the flattering narratives, you’re building blind spots into your innovation pipeline (and not seeing the whole consumer).

The Dark Side Matters

It’s easy to tell yourself consumers are motivated by love, health, joy, or connection. Often that is true. But just as often, the real energy in the market comes from less flattering places: guilt, fear, anxiety, vanity and conflict avoidance. Ignoring these drivers doesn’t make them go away, it just leaves them unacknowledged, shaping choices outside your line of sight.

Are these “dark truths” always the most fertile ground for innovation? No, not always. Sometimes they’re landmines you need to navigate around. But either way, they’re powerful levers of behavior, and if you pretend they don’t exist, you’ll misread the market and weaken your brand.

How to Work With These Truths

So what do you do with uncomfortable insights? First, you don’t necessarily build your messaging directly around them, no brand wants to run ads saying “Buy our treats to quiet your guilt.” But you must acknowledge them internally. They’re shaping the context in which your product lives, and sometimes they point to new directions you’d miss otherwise.

A few practices I’ve found useful:

Get close to consumers: Dark truths don’t show up in surveys. People don’t articulate them (they often don’t even know about them themselves). Ethnography, in-home interviews, or long-form conversations are critical (i.e., AI cannot help you here). You need to watch and listen to people, dig into uncomfortable places, and unpack it.
Frame the negative without judgement (but still negative). Internally, create space where “unflattering” motivations can be written on the wall without getting shut down. The goal isn’t to embarrass consumers or unethically prey on consumers’ weaknesses, it’s to understand them holistically, warts and all. Also, don’t be tempted to turn the negative into a positive statement (this is a common ask). Yes, this takes the sting out of it, but it also lessens the real emotion.
Ask, “What’s really going on here?” Darker emotions often are underneath behavior that looks irrational or contradictory. If you can, probe the tensions: What emotion is being avoided? What hidden relief is really being purchased?

Innovation thrives when we’re honest about the messy, human side of consumption. Pretending consumers are only driven by aspirational motives is comforting, but it’s also limiting. The real breakthroughs come when you’re willing to stare directly at the shadow side (the guilt, the fear, the anger, the avoidance) and ask how those forces shape behavior.

The uncomfortable truths don’t feel inspiring in a highlight reel to shareholders, but they will keep you grounded in reality. And that’s the only place real innovation can start.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

Products: Shaklee Sparkling Protein; Burger King Brazil Protein Milkshakes; Uncrustables 12g Protein; Pluff Protein Mousse; Ghost x General Mills Protein Bars; Good Eats Protein Seasoning; PopCrop High Protein Chips; Mr. Beans Protein Cream; Fuel10k Protein Rice Pudding; Lifeway Muscle Mates; Protein Pints; Idahoan + Protein Mashed Potatoes.

The Cult of Protein: Salvation or Stagnation?

I saw this tweet a few weeks ago and thought it was funny but also insightful. It highlights how even consumers are starting to question the ridiculous levels of protein currently in every category. It also nails the state of food innovation right now. We’ve turned one of the most basic macro-nutrients into a brand lifeline. Add a few grams of protein, and suddenly your pudding, cookie, or tortilla chip is given a wellness halo.

And it’s working (for now).

Protein claims still work. They still move product, spike velocities and reassure retailers. Protein gives consumers something ‘good for me’ to latch onto in a crowded aisle, potentially removing any guilt from over-indulgence. But that’s exactly why it’s worth paying attention, because not every kind of “working” is good for a brand long term.

The Illusion of Progress

Protein has become the industry’s default innovation button. You can add it to nearly anything without needing to build new equity, find a new consumer, a new insight, or look deeper in your brand story. It’s the illusion of modern, a way to make an old product look new.

But that’s not the same as progress. When every brand uses protein as its shortcut to relevance, the word stops meaning anything. It’s not a differentiator, it’s a placeholder for strategy.

Brand Dilution in Action

More and more recently, when a brand adds protein just to chase a trend, it says to me: our core promise isn’t strong enough on its own.

Think about it: there is a reason that Mondelez hasn’t launched Oreo with protein? It would no longer be about playful indulgence. They’d be competing with Quest and Pure Protein (and losing on both taste and function). Even if the line extension sells at first, it drags the brand into a space it can’t win (and dilutes their brand).

Protein may lift sales temporarily, but it can also flatten meaning. The strongest brands don’t borrow credibility from nutrients, they create it through identity.

Competing Where You’re Weakest

The moment a brand adds protein, it is often walking onto someone else’s field. Greek yogurt, bars, shakes, these are categories where “protein” has a reason to exist. When a seasoning brand, potato or dessert brand joins that fight, it’s moving from emotional territory (flavor, comfort, nostalgia) to functional territory (fuel, performance). That’s rarely a good trade.

If your brand was built to satisfy, delight, or indulge, “added protein” doesn’t always strengthen that, it can confuse it.

The Danger of a Fad Treadmill

Every decade has its nutrient obsession. Low-fat, antioxidants, fiber, probiotics, plant-based, each one peaked, plateaued, and then became wallpaper in food history. Protein may have more staying power, but even it won’t stay special forever.

When you reformulate your product line around a transient halo, you’re basically leasing relevance. When the cultural moment shifts, you’ll be left paying rent on an identity you no longer own.

Taste, Cost and Credibility

Protein is expensive, tricky to work with, and it can dull flavor and roughen texture. So even when the label looks healthier, the product experience often suffers.

If your chips suddenly taste chalky or your ice cream gets gritty for the sake of three extra grams, that’s not functional food, that’s brand sabotage.

When Protein Actually Belongs

That doesn’t mean protein has no place in modern innovation. It’s still one of the few nutritional claims consumers understand and value today.

It’s just that context matters. Protein makes sense in categories where it enhances the product’s core purpose (satiety, recovery, strength, or sustained energy). Greek yogurt, smoothies, high-protein cereal, or “better breakfast” formats? Absolutely. That’s additive.

But the minute it shows up in products where the benefit feels bolted on (chips, cookies, soda, candy) it starts to feel like marketing, not a consumer need.

You must ask yourself: does protein serve the product, or is the product serving protein?

When Protein Earns Its Place

Not every protein launch is a misstep. Some are smart, strategic, and even overdue. The trick is knowing which side of that line you’re on.

Here’s a quick calculus to pressure-test your next “high protein” idea:

1. Category Fit:
Ask whether protein clarifies the product’s role or confuses it. If consumers already see the category as fuel, recovery, or sustained energy (e.g., breakfast foods, meal-replacement snacks, post-workout drinks), protein is a natural enhancer. But today, protein has escaped its gym roots and it’s become shorthand for filling, substantial, and worth it. For many people, “high protein” isn’t about performance, it’s about permission, the idea that they’re eating something smart, not empty.

That’s why it works so well in everyday foods like cereal, granola, or snack bars. It makes a quick meal feel legitimate and a small snack feel satisfying. Protein now signals wellness, nourishment, and control as much as it does strength or recovery.

Where it breaks down is when the signal contradicts the category and brand’s intent. Yes, a high-protein dessert can be a permissible indulgence but that only works when the brand stays honest about what it’s offering. Halo Top didn’t sell performance; it sold the fantasy of eating the whole pint without regret. The protein was the permission slip, not the purpose.

The key test: Does protein help the consumer feel like they’re getting more of what they already want from the product or does it confuse what the product is supposed to be? If it’s the latter, you’ve crossed from strategic stretch into identity drift.

2. Functional Credibility:
Does your brand have permission to talk about performance or nutrition?
Brands built on wholesomeness or balance can stretch into protein credibly. Brands built on joy, nostalgia, or flavor purity usually can’t without sounding off-key. (This is potentially why the Ghost x General Mills collab works. Ghost has gym-bro cred and General Mills has bar making know-how).

3. Sensory Integrity:
Does protein make the product better to experience (more satisfying, heartier, smoother) or does it degrade what people love most? If you’re trading a familiar pleasure for a functional brag, that’s a red flag.

4. Longevity of Value:
I often ask clients considering a protein addition to their line: Would the proposition still hold up if the protein halo faded tomorrow? If yes, you’ve got a brand-consistent innovation. If no, you’ve got a short-term sales prop (which is fine, as long as you recognize it for what it is).

5. Margin Reality:
Run the economics honestly. If you’re squeezing pennies out of a costly ingredient just to put a claim on the pack, you’re not building value, you’re renting it. Protein should reinforce the core promise of your brand, not replace it.
When it deepens what you already stand for, it’s strategy. When it papers over what you’ve run out of ways to say, it’s a crutch.

The Selective Opportunity

The protein boom isn’t the problem. I think the real problem is the complacency it’s creating. Protein has become the industry’s panacea, a quick hit of legitimacy that delays harder questions about what consumers actually need next from your brand or category.

The better move is selectivity. Know where protein amplifies your brand story, and where it distracts from it. Use it to clarify your purpose, not compensate for its absence.

IDEAS FROM THE FUTURE

Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Insight: The idea of a perfect ‘power nap’ has been brewing for years. Consumers work to time their caffeine intact just right so that it they wake up extra refreshed. Recently, this idea has risen in popularity as more consumers seek better sleep and more energy. However, getting the dose and timing right is tricky (leading to lots of complicated hacks online).

Marketplace Learning: Functional coffee is booming, with protein, focus and energy as popular benefits. Brands are carving out specific domains (like fitness) to capture a niche. As far as I know, no major brand has tried to use functional coffee to hack sleep.

Technical moat: There are science-backed learnings on caffeine and circadian rhythms. Delivering a 2-phase (relaxing start and time-released caffeine delivery) in a liquid would be challenging but offers a differentiating benefit for a brand.

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Banza CleanScan certification; Nashi Korean Pear Juice; Cloodie Taste-Less Chewing Gum; Stiller’s Soda (commercial); Fresh Fizz Soda

GUT REACTION

Products: Gingerbread Doritos; Ore-Ida Crispy Croutots; Dirty Mountain Dew; Il Pastaio PopCrok; Sport Pasta

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Magnum ice cream company to use NotCo AI for new products

General Mills Executive Doug Martin to be Wawa’s ‘Brand Architect’

America has a new top-selling beer

Amazon to close its UK grocery stores

Chick-fil-A to open beverage concept

Aldi just rebranded its private-label products

General Mills doubles down on snackable content with sketch series

Cracker Barrel Outrage Was Almost Certainly Driven by Bots, Researchers Say

Starbucks CTO resigned Monday amid tech revamp

Starbucks is getting the Chipotle treatment — with a twist

Who Still Eats Sugary Cereals?

From PepsiCo to Taco Bell, dirty soda is taking over

Kraft Heinz pilots AI agent to streamline ketchup production

DoorDash launches delivery robot (“Dot”) in latest push into autonomous technology

Jennifer Garner’s Once Upon a Farm files for US IPO

Have chicken strips become the fast-food panic button of 2025?

Sold out: Japan is running out of Asahi beer because of a cyberattack

Amazon launches a grocery brand with most products under $5

Grocery price pain rises, in warning sign for Trump and GOP

Taco Bell is named the fastest drive-thru for a fifth year, but it may have lost a human touch with AI

Martie: The trendy new online snack discount shop

Interesting

Costco to sell Ozempic and Wegovy at a large discount for people without insurance

What Happens to School Lunches in the MAHA Era?

A City Built on Corn Flakes Pins Hopes on New Kellogg Owner

Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro makes food taste sweeter and saltier, and that may quiet cravings

Hershey beats lawsuit claiming Reese’s Halloween candies aren’t spooky

USDA Puts Food Researchers on Leave

Which professions have the highest rate of burnout?

US is blocking Iranian diplomats in US from shopping at Costco

Priced out of traditional housing, more Americans are living in RVs

New trend in Gen Z working--“Micro-shifting”

Time-Travelling Milkman raises €2m to support launch of Oleocream solution

AI-Generated “Workslop” Is Destroying Productivity

Forget About That Protein Bar: The founder of Jeni’s Ice Cream is convinced that fiber is the future.

The Life and Death of the American Foodie

Nonstick cookware is sparking a celebrity food fight

Is Gas Station Sushi Safe To Eat? (Video)

US Consumer Trust in Media at New Low of 28% in U.S.

Fun & Odd

Why your outdoorsy friend suddenly has a gummy bear power bank

Map: Uniquely popular coffee creamer flavors, by state

People are hiring ‘pumpkin concierges’ to decorate their porches

A Barbecue Dynasty’s Feud Is Rocking a Texas Town

How WWII made Hershey and Mars Halloween candy kings

The Mystery of Mamadou, a Delivery Guy Who Became a Superhero

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4 Food Futures You Must Prepare For: From Ingredient Bans to Consumer Boycotts

Kevin Ryan — Sun, 21 Sep 2025 21:28:54 GMT

Here is what’s in today’s edition (and the last edition, in case you missed it):

Different is Good: Differentiation is more powerful than disruption

Wargaming MAHA: Four Futures for Food & Beverage Companies

Contrasts: What’s After Swicy?

Can Eagle Land Hamburger Helper? Can an iconic brand find sustained growth?

Ideas from the Future: Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Signals from the Shelf: Early signs of potential changes

Gut Reaction: My hot takes on new offerings

Tidbits: The latest in food industry news, from the profound to the funny

Products: Lost Sheep Ice Coffee Concentrate; Vadasz Smacked Cucumbers; Wasted Pasta Made From Bread Waste; Brami Protein Pasta; One Trick Pony Peanut Butter Popcorn; Krusteaz Honey Cornbread Batter; Back to Nature Seasoned Mini Crackers.

The New Arms Race: Why Differentiation is Harder Than Disruption

In 2024, prebiotic soda brand Olipop hit $400 million in sales while dozens of "disruptive" beverage launches quietly vanished from shelves. Same year, same category and often same retailers.

The difference? Olipop didn't just disrupt, it differentiated. And there's a world of difference between the two.

The CPG industry has been drunk on disruption for years. Ever since Clayton Christenson wrote The Innovator’s Dilemma and planted the idea of disruption in the business world, startups and brand managers have been promising to "disrupt the category”. While once a powerful rallying cry, the surprising reality is that, in CPG, disruption has become disappointingly easy*.

Expensive and time consuming? 100%, but now you can rent a co-packer, hire a TikTok creator, slap a trending ingredient on the label, and boom, you've "disrupted" a category with your new spin…for about six months. Then you're fighting for survival as another brand (or private label) replicates your formula and retailers wonder why they gave you shelf space.

That's because disruption gets you noticed, but differentiation gets you chosen (and rechosen).

The real difference

Differentiation isn't about being first or flashiest. It's about being:

Instantly obvious (consumers get it in five seconds, not five minutes)
Genuinely better (the difference matters in real use, not just on paper)
Defensibly unique (competitors can't copy it away by next quarter)

There are several ways to action on these three principles. However, looking at today’s market, here are 5 pillars to keep in mind:

The five pillars of CPG differentiation

1. Own the Obvious Stop making consumers work to understand why you're different. The best differentiation is self-evident the moment someone encounters your product. Grasa is squeezable EVOO, RxBar is simply ingredients, RIND is dried fruit with the peel.

The test: Can a customer explain your difference to a friend without reading your website? If not, you're not obvious enough.

2. Control the System, Not Just the Story
Values-based differentiation only works when it's baked into your entire operation, not sprayed on at the end like marketing cologne. Tony's Chocolonely doesn't just talk about ethical chocolate, they made supply chain transparency the actual product experience. Every bean is traceable, every step documented.

Meanwhile, countless brands slap "sustainable" on their packaging while changing nothing about how they actually operate. Consumers can smell the difference.

3. Distribution is Your Moat In CPG, product advantages fade fast. Distribution advantages compound. Celsius didn't just make a better energy drink, they plugged into PepsiCo's DSD machine and left competitors scrambling. Liquid Death didn't just put water in cans; they built a DTC system that let them own the customer relationship in the early phases of growth.

The uncomfortable truth: your product might be 10% better, but if your distribution is 50% weaker, you lose.

4. Make Health Joyful Yes, not everything centers on health today, but increasingly much of the market is centered on cleaning up a category’s former sins. However, functional benefits only scale when they're enjoyable, not medicinal. Consumers spend billions on wellness, but they won't suffer for it. The time of leading-edge users choking down health food is over. Poppi cracked the code by making prebiotic soda taste like a treat, not a treatment. Compare that to the graveyard of "healthy" products that tasted like punishment. Being good for you isn't enough. Now, you must be good and taste good too.

5. Master the Ritual The most defensible differentiation isn't what you sell, it's how people use it. Nespresso didn't just make coffee pods; they made the ritual of pod coffee feel premium and personal. The process became the moat (and let’s be fair, the lock-in of the machine). Think about your product: Are you just selling a thing, or are you creating a habit? The latter is infinitely more valuable and harder to displace.

In most categories, you can’t get away with just one pillar, you need to leverage multiple.

Why most "differentiation" fails
A lot of brands confuse novelty with differentiation. Impossible’s “bleeding” patties looked brilliant at launch, but once taste tradeoffs surfaced, that bit of science magic didn’t keep competitors away or consumers coming back. Same with the wave of “clean” energy drinks that copied Celsius’s green-coffee pitch but missed the distribution muscle and cultural credibility.

Packaging plays the same game: a flashy design or green claim rarely sustains an edge. But when packaging reinforces the pillars (making the benefit obvious, embodying the values, or creating a ritual) it can be the sharpest differentiator in the arsenal. Noosa’s deli tub instantly reframed yogurt, Liquid Death’s tallboy created cultural theater around water, and Capri Sun’s pouch rewired a category ritual. Packaging isn’t a pillar of its own, but it can be a lever that makes the pillars and principles work.

The war you should be fighting
Disruption makes noise. Differentiation builds moats. Only one of those compounds value. The next category leaders will be the brands that are instantly obvious, genuinely better, and defensibly unique, not the ones that simply manage to get noticed first.

If your pipeline is full of “new” but empty of “different” or “obviously better,” you’re not going to last long.

*Note, I’m using the common meaning of disruption here (i.e., “breaking the familiar rules of a category in a way that grabs attention, reframes consumer expectations, and forces competitors to respond”), not the more technical Christenson definition (which is a different topic entirely)

Wargaming MAHA: Four Futures for Food & Beverage Companies

The last 6 months of have been a flurry of activity. As the world continuously seems to change, here at Malachite, we’ve been busy running strategy and wargaming sessions with clients on everything from AI and tariffs to GLP-1s and biotechnology. It’s a best practice: when teams force themselves to think through multiple possible futures, they make better calls on portfolios, investments, and what innovation should look like.

One theme, though, has proven to be most popular: MAHA (Make America Healthy Again). C-suites want to know: what does the next five years look like under an administration with a MAHA focus and what ripple effects could hit food and beverage? That’s why I thought it would be useful to share with you a glimpse of how we frame these futures and how we use them (in a simplified and brand-agnostic way).

Note: this isn’t about predicting which bills pass, it’s scenario planning. The goal is not to be 100% right, but to be 100% ready. Right now, too many companies are treating MAHA reactively instead of proactively. My advice is: you should be wind-tunneling your current strategies against potential futures. Not doing so risks waiting until that future arrives (and you are not prepared).

After looking at the current MAHA situation, I’ve created a four-part scenario plan. Below is a summary of each potential future reality, what it means, and how to win in it.

Scenario 1: Regulatory Avalanche (Full Implementation)

What it is: MAHA is comprehensively adopted, with federal funding, agency muscle, and aligned states. By 2028, the U.S. codifies an ultra-processed food definition, bans synthetic dyes, and eliminates GRAS self-certification.

Why it happened: Political momentum holds through 2026 midterms, a public health crisis sharpens urgency, and industry pushback/lobbying backfires. International pressure (EU trade threats) forces alignment.

Signals and predictions:

35+ states adopt additive warning labels, forcing national reformulation.
FDA’s enforcement budget doubles; warning letters spike 400%.
R&D budgets for natural ingredient development increase 200–300%.

What it means: This is the total compliance world. Big CPG absorbs billion-dollar reformulation costs but wins if it can move early and vertically integrate into natural sourcing and less-processed cues and transparency. MAHA innovation is massive as brands rush to create great tasting + compliant products. Smaller brands without resources get acquired. “MAHA-compliant” becomes a premium tier commanding price premiums.

Potential Strategies needed to survive/thrive here:

Invest in ingredient adjacencies: Develop or acquire natural ingredient suppliers, fermentation tech, or clean-label additives. Owning or partnering with the supply base reduces reformulation costs and protects margins.

Accelerate “beyond food” extensions: Consider supplements, fortified powders, or nutraceutical SKUs that can leverage the same regulatory halo but face less formulation scrutiny in early phases.

Scenario 2: Corporate Capture (Industry-Shaped Implementation)

What it is: Industry lobbying blunts MAHA into a voluntary framework. Timelines stretch, enforcement is light, and “partnership programs” replace hard mandates.

Why it happened: A $200M+ lobbying push reframes MAHA as a cost and jobs risk. Farm-state coalitions soften ingredient bans. MAHA advocates fracture their united front based on contentious issues (e.g., pesticide residues). Industry studies sow doubt, creating regulatory hesitation. Key policy leaders are replaced, removing the thrust of the movement.

Signals and predictions:

“MAHA Partnership Program” allows self-certification.
Dye phase-outs pushed to 2030 with broad exemptions.
Only a dozen states enact additive restrictions.

What it means: Selective compliance rules the day. Big players leverage government relations as a competitive weapon. Innovation in this space slows, but marketing flourishes, “better-for-you” claims without true reformulation. Regional strategies emerge, with companies leaning into geographies where rules are light.

Potential Strategies needed to survive/thrive here:

Shape the voluntary standards: Lean into leadership positions in industry consortia, set benchmarks, and codify “soft law” in your favor before stricter rules return.

Dual-path innovation bets: Use the breathing room to pilot supplement-style offerings or functional snacking platforms that resonate with the MAHA consumer but don’t require mass portfolio reformulation.

Scenario 3: State Patchwork (Fragmented Implementation)

What it is: Federal gridlock stalls MAHA, but states run wild. California, Texas, and New York set divergent rules, creating a fractured regulatory map.

Why it happened: A divided Congress, coming out of 2026, blocks national policy. Attorneys general sue companies, consumer demand pressures brands, and states compete for health-conscious residents.

Signals and predictions:

West Coast bloc mirrors EU/UK additive bans (e.g., HFSS); Southern states restrict SNAP; Northeast requires labeling.
Supreme Court takes up cases on interstate commerce.
Retailers launch region-specific private labels to meet divergent standards.

What it means: Complexity skyrockets. National brands must choose between lowest-common-denominator formulations or state-specific products, both costly. Regional players thrive by staying local. Private label gains share by adapting fastest. Litigation risk grows as AGs push for “failure to reformulate” claims.

Potential Strategies needed to survive/thrive here:

Modular product platforms: Design “base” SKUs with plug-and-play ingredients (e.g., different sweeteners, dyes, emulsifiers) so the same brand can flex across state lines without full duplication.

Geo-focused investment: Overweight R&D and marketing in strict-regulation states (CA/NY) where innovation credibility is built, then backfill mainstream SKUs elsewhere. Supplements or DTC channels can also bypass some state-level hurdles.

Scenario 4: Consumer Revolution (Market-Driven Transformation)

What it is: Regulation lags, but culture moves faster. Influencers, TikTok campaigns, and ESG investors accelerate change without waiting for Washington.

Why it happened: Gen Z and younger millennials demand healthier products, social media turns additives into viral villains and rising healthcare costs force consumers to self-police diets (often with 3^rd party apps and AI).

Signals and predictions:

70% of companies voluntarily remove dyes by 2028.
Viral boycotts drive product reformulations in months.
ESG funds controlling trillions demand “health-aligned” portfolios.
3^rd party apps for food scanning skyrockets in popularity; companies bend to their algorithms

What it means: Agile brands dominate. Big incumbents face reputational blowback as legacy SKUs get dragged on social platforms. Direct-to-consumer health brands grow fast. Ingredient transparency and sourcing become table stakes. Consumer sentiment, not regulation, sets the operating system for food.

Potential Strategies needed to survive/thrive here:

Rapid-response innovation cell: Build a small, agile unit able to reformulate or launch new products within 3–6 months of viral consumer moments (e.g., “ditch aspartame” or “seed oil-free”).

Collaboration with gatekeepers : Begin conversations now with the technology and app developers that are leading the consumer food self-policing (e.g., Yuka or Zoe). Understand how they work and build to their requirements.

Using the Scenarios

Hopefully, it’s obvious that these scenarios aren’t mutually exclusive. You could easily see Patchwork in 2025–26 evolving into Avalanche if a public health crisis hits, or a Consumer Revolution unfolding alongside Corporate Capture. The point is to test your strategy and wargame against each, not pick a single bet.

Across all four, some imperatives hold and are worth serious consideration by you and your team:

Proactive health positioning pays dividends in every world.
Flexibility-first operations (supply chain, ingredient sourcing, modular design) are essential to pivot between rules.
Consumer research and monitoring must sit at the core of portfolio planning.
Regulatory intelligence can’t be an afterthought, it’s a competitive advantage.
Optionality in supplements and functional formats (as both a hedge and a growth platform)

This is a basic scenario and wargaming illustration. To really harness this for your brand, with facilitated guidance, expert coaching and actionable plans for investment, M&A and innovation, give us a call at Malachite.

Products: Siete Habanero Hot Honey Chips; Cheez-It Hot Honey; Maruchan Fire Yakisoba; Woodridge Sticky Rice Snacks; Daily Crunch Sweet+Spicy Sichuan; That’s Kimchi Kimchi Crisps; Chocoviar; Springkles Cupcake Bites; Aldi Angel Hair Style Ice Cream; Doritos Strager Things and Cool Ranch Collisions; Ritter Sport Coffee Duo; Primula Cheese & Carolina Reaper; Gü Sticky Toffy Pudding Pots

What's After Swicy? The Future Belongs to Contrasts

Sweet + spicy is everywhere now. Your local gas station probably has three different "swicy" snacks, with Mike’s Hot Honey signing dozens of licensing deals every week (I don’t know if that’s true, but it seems like it). However, like it or not, now that it’s solidly mainstream (see Cheez-Its), its popularity will inevitably wane.

But we shouldn’t look at swicy just as a passing fad. Instead, we should see it as a trend that teaches a lesson. Swicy (and other trends before it like salted caramel) taps into something hardwired in us: we're contrast junkies.

There is an opportunity in unraveling and understanding contrasts because I can guarantee that the next big flavor trend will contain one.

Why Contrasts Work

Without getting too nerdy, let’s just say our brains are wired for contrast. Different flavors trigger different reward systems (e.g., sweet hits dopamine, spice triggers endorphins). Plus, when you combine them, the effect multiplies and heightens, so salt makes the sugar taste more intense and vice versa (imagine eating Raisinets with your buttered popcorn, they hit better together).

This isn't just about taste though. We chase contrasts across every sense: crunchy coating on creamy ice cream, hot fudge on cold sundaes, tension and release in music. Humans have an innate love of experiencing sensory contradictions.

Why They're Exploding Now

If we've always been wired this way, why does it seem like bold contrasts have recently become a thing? Two big shifts:

Social media + global palates. Dramatic flavors get shares, and cuisines built on contrast (Thai, Mexican, Middle Eastern) are now mainstream vocabulary thanks to Instagram and TikTok.

Taste fatigue + safe thrills: Decades of "bigger, saltier, sweeter" has left us numb. Contrasts offer complexity instead of just intensity, letting people flirt with danger (heat! funk!) while staying comfortable (sweetness! familiarity!).

The Contrast Playbook

OK, that’s all well and good, but how do we use the power of contrast when designing a new SKU?

1. Audit your category's "boring:" What's the dominant flavor or texture profile your category is stuck on (or mostly known for)? Whatever defines it also makes it predictable and boring for some consumers. That's your opportunity zone. How can you partner that flavor or texture with a contrast that will bring excitement (but keep the safety of the known)?

2. Find your contrast adjacency: Another approach is to look at adjacent categories where contrasts are already working. If umami+sweet is working in bakery (see miso pound cake) maybe consider that contrast in crunchy snacks.

3. Test small, learn fast: LTOs, regional tests, co-branded experiments. See if the TikTok algorithm is surfacing specific contrasts for your consumer and leverage it.

4. Look for cultural bridges: The strongest contrasts have cultural credibility, not just random opposites. Thai food made sweet-spicy familiar to Western palates. If you are considering a bold contrast, ask what global cuisine could you use to give it legitimacy?

5. Plan the platform. Can you build a whole range around this contrast, or does it only work for one SKU? The biggest wins become ecosystems, not novelties.

Contrast Opportunities

If you want predictions on opportunities for the next swicy, here are some that show early promise. I’m specifically intrigued by the * ones:

Umami + Sweet: miso caramel, soy sauce desserts, mushroom chocolate (this has been around for a bit, likely to expand)

Fatty + Spicy: chili nut butters, spicy cheese, hot pepper guac

*Sweet + Tingly: Szechuan peppercorn chocolate, buzz button cocktails, sweet horseradish sauces (see TJ’s Spicy Dynamite)

Toasty + Sweet: black sesame ice cream, tahini desserts, brown butter everything

Cooling + Heat: Chili-mint combos, spicy ice cream, thermal drinks.

*Funky + Familiar: Kimchi mayo or pickles, miso caramel, truffle potato chips

*Sweet + Astringent: Umeboshi (salted dried plums), black tea ice cream; tart cherry red wine jam

Texture Warfare: Chewy-crunchy hybrids, pop-and-melt combinations. Not a surprise but under-leveraged in many categories.

Can Eagle Soar with Hamburger Helper?

Hamburger Helper has been riding an unexpected wave. Sky-high beef prices have made a box that stretches a pound of meat into a meal newly relevant again (sales are up 14% since last year), and a recent cameo on The Bear gave it a shot of cultural cachet. Good for them, rarely does a 50-year-old brand get that kind of tailwind.

But Eagle Family Foods is now pushing that momentum with its first big innovation blitz since acquiring the brand from General Mills in 2022: 12 new SKUs spanning breakfast, microwavable cups with real, dried beef, and restaurant-style flavors. That’s ambitious, and risky.

Not surprisingly, I’m reminded of B&G Foods’ expansion of Green Giant after buying it from General Mills a decade ago. They flooded freezer cases with riced veggies, cauliflower swaps, and frozen blends. After impressive initial sales leaning into health and wellness and BFY veggie alternatives, there were problems: SKU bloat, margin pressure, and eventual divestitures. Green Giant proved that brand equity can get you distribution, but it can’t shield you from over-extension.

Eagle should take that lesson seriously. Brand equity opens doors, but too many bets launched too quickly turn into clutter, cost, and consumer confusion. Success will hinge on three disciplines:

1. Focus on real demand
Restaurant-inspired flavors is a very smart move. Young consumers (who don’t know beef stroganoff from a Faberge egg) are looking for flavors that sound good to them, not old flavors from previous generations. Moving into restaurant flavors is a natural extension that fits the brand’s comfort DNA. But breakfast is another story. This is a category where consumers are already overloaded with quick, hot options. Hamburger Helper doesn’t bring obvious distinctiveness here (especially when its ‘add breakfast sausage’ not ground beef). Plus, few people are looking for breakfast help in this aisle especially on a weekday, so I question the incrementality.
Then there’s the microwavable cups with real beef. In theory, it’s a clever way to deliver convenience. In practice, it loads the product with risk. High beef prices are precisely what’s driving the core brand’s relevance (the box stretches beef). Adding meat upfront flips that equation, making cost management difficult and margins thin. Worse, if the meat doesn’t deliver on taste or texture (a real concern), the entire brand takes the hit.

2. Protect the core
Hamburger Helper works because it’s tasty, affordable comfort. Every new launch should reinforce those values. That means avoiding gimmicks that dilute what the brand stands for. If consumers begin to see HH as just another line of generic cups or random extensions, its hard-won relevance evaporates. Protecting the core also means making sure taste is superior to private label at all costs. The brand lives or dies on flavor and value perception (especially with new consumers trying it for the first time). Eagle has stated that they are working hard to remove additives and clean up the product, which is all well and good. However, I think that ship has sailed in terms of perception. Instead, I’d be doubling down on taste and value. How do you guarantee a wow experience at dinner beyond PL at a better price? That should be their North Star.

3. Prune ruthlessly
SKU proliferation creates hidden costs, in logistics, in shelf resets, and in marketing dollars spread too thin. Failures can’t be allowed to linger. Eagle needs a cut-fast mentality. Give new products a clear runway, but if they don’t perform, take them out before they drag down the rest of the portfolio.

The economy may be propelling Hamburger Helper and making it practical again, but long-term growth won’t come from chasing novelty. The brand has real upside if Eagle innovates with precision, not just volume.

Innovation That Actually Works

Learn more about Malachite

IDEAS FROM THE FUTURE

Hypothetical concepts for tomorrow based on today’s insights

Insight: Fibermaxxing is on-trend with consumers, but nutrition influencers and nutritionists are calling out potential negatives of‘industrialized fibers’ and a need for diversity (see books like upcoming Plant-Powered Plus and 30-plants a week challenge)

Marketplace Learning: Growth in resistant starch + fiber interest (see recently launched Supergut Foundational Daily Fiber with green banana resistant starch or Defender bars) and fiber diversity (see Floura bars)

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Fly by Jing Soy Noodles; Smaak Hot Sauces; Kodak Blind Boxes; Cool Birds

GUT REACTION

Products: HoJo Fried Clam Soap; Pillsbury Funfetti Sourdough Bread Mix; DOZZ Canned Soup;; Wonderful Chocolate Pistachios; Mamie’s Sticky Yogurt; Food & Wine article on stretchy yogurt trend)

TIDBITS

Food Industry

Food-makers are phasing out artificial dyes. The problem: Americans love the color

Coca-Cola rebrands products in Germany amid US image crisis

Potbelly acquired by convenience store operator RaceTrac for $566 million

Chipotle to expand to Asia through joint venture

Pinstripes goes bankrupt

Carlyle, EQT, HongShan among final bidders for Starbucks China, sources say

Ocado shares plunge 13% as US partner Kroger rethinks warehouse strategy

Read the full Make Our Children Healthier Again report

Coca-Cola partners with Sazerac to expand alcoholic beverage portfolio

Publicly, the food industry has been mostly quiet about MAHA. Privately, they’re panicking.

Ben & Jerry's co-founder Jerry Greenfield resigns, claiming parent company Unilever 'silenced' its campaigning

Starbucks to add ‘hundreds of thousands of seats’ back to its stores

Splenda parent company acquires SlimFast US brand

“Broistas” and protein-maxxing: Dutch Bros and other unlikely coffee challengers are terrifying Starbucks

Olive Garden-Owner Darden Tests Smaller Portions as Diners Seek Cheap Options

Danone withdraws acquisition bid for Lifeway Foods

Interesting

Tastewise publishes their 2026 Food and Beverage Trend Forecast

Is Yogurt Healthy? RFK Jr. Wages War on Ultra-Processed Foods

Grocers aim to significantly increase private brand dollar share by 2027

G.O.P. Plan on Pesticides Faces Revolt From MAHA Moms

The controversial sweet that fuels Norwegians

Here’s how people are actually using ChatGPT

Brands Like These launches, marketplace to buy/sell human-made brand kits

Cuts to the Food Safety System Threaten Americans’ Health

Apple Watch hypertension alerts cleared by FDA for new and old watches

As world gets hotter, Americans are turning to more sugar, study finds

Grocery inflation highest since 2022 as Trump tariffs pile up

If Pepsi Wants to Win, It Has to Play Coke’s Game

41% of US adults say they are online ‘almost constantly’

TV cooking shows are dying out - this cronut holds the secret to why

The Boom in ‘Better for You’ Kid Snacks Is Worse for Parents

How Beli Ate Yelp

Who is winning the GLP-1 race?

How do weight loss medications affect our relationship with food?

Can Ultra-Processed Foods Be Made Healthier?

Decades ago, we made whole milk the enemy. Some say it was a mistake.

For the first time, more kids are obese than underweight

FDA takes aim at Hims and other telehealth services in drug advertising blitz

The Cult Appeal of the Church Nut

Fun & Odd

Whey to go: Is cheese the new reason to travel?

Making Popcorn for 15,000+ Basketball Fans (watch)

Cereal Box Records Sound Horrible. They Still Look Incredible.

Chimps drinking a lager a day in ripe fruit, study finds

Why are pacifiers becoming a growing (and viral) trend among adults?

He crossed 26 miles in a kayak made from mushrooms – and lived to tell the tale

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FoodStuff

The Craft Flip (or How Bagels Stopped Apologizing and You Should To)

Products: Black Sheep Coffee Liquid Cookie beverage; Dunkin 42-ounce iced beverage buckets; McD Candyfloss Frappe;7 Brew Canned Espressos; Dunn Brother Dirty Sodas; Aroma Joe’s Poppin’ Pumpkin Latte topped with candy popping sugar; PJ’s Coffee Bananas Foster-inspired Banana Cold Foam drinks.

Vice Has Moved to the Cup

Products: JRKY; Cozy Grass Fed Butter Bars; Snugburys Ice Cream; PopUp Bagels Jonas Brothers Collab; Popup Bagels Half & Half Event; Gelee Gelee Yuzu; Caulipower High Protein

The Craft Flip (or How Bagels Stopped Apologizing and You Should To)

GUT REACTION

Products: PopTart X Buzzballz; SunnyD SpookyD Mystery Flavor; SidePiece Snacks; Benope Buttermellow Cookie Protein Shake Pouch; Curd Protein Pudding

TIDBITS

3 Innovation Flaws That Cause 90% of Launch Failures

The Protein War Returns to Beverages

Products: Filippo Berio simplifies the range for consumers

3 Innovation Flaws That Cause 90% of Launch Failures

GUT REACTION

Products: Oreo x KFC;Alvalle Gazpacho; Campbell’s Chunky Frozen meals; MOOJ Foods; Piiper

TIDBITS

Autopilot Eating: Why PB&J is a $1B+ Business

Why PB&J is Booming: The Rise of Autopilot Eating

Product: Jacked Granny in a can; Grenade Soft Core; Lineage Coconut Macadamia; KOH Daily Bar; Misfits Stuffed bars; Zelus Protein+ Collagen Caffeine Electrolyte beverage; Sleet Pops protein and fiber freeze pops; SPYLT Banana Milk Caffeinated Protein Drink

The Identity Crisis in the Protein Bar Aisle

The Great Unbundling: What Inflation will Do To CPG

GUT REACTION

Products: Hydrating Hand Sanitizers, Mountain Dew, Sour Patch Kids, Gushers; Buffalo Wild Wings Poppin’ Ranch; Skip Magnesium Sparkling Beverage; Dime MSG Scallion Ranch; Nissin Cold Water rehydrate Cup Noodle.

TIDBITS

Dungeon Crawler Carl is the Future of CPG

Products: Jesse Jams, jams with electrolytes; Gamsa Foods savory oatmeal; Croots snacking croutons; NEAP collagen protein gel; Lil’ Melts beef tallow cubes; Chenzi Chicken Potato Balls; MyFit Strips oral microbiome energy strips

Dungeon Crawler Carl is the Future of CPG

Products: Sweet Lorens’s Ready-to-Bake Oat Bars; Jus Rol Puff Pastry Turnover Kit; IKEA Effect

Products: Wasted, pasta from bread waste US launch; Trash upcycled cacao water; Penrhos Gin; B Sides Snack; Rubies in the Rubble hot sauce; Roots Farm Fresh Sweet Potato Tots

Recycling Upcycling

Products: Quaker Oat Shake & Go; Quaker Overnight Oats; Perfect Bar Oaties; Alter Eco Oat Clusters wins Good Housekeeping award; Pip & Nut Almond Butter Stuffed Oat Bar; Seven Sundays Oat Protein Cereal

Oats are Riding a Post-Functional Wave

GUT REACTION

Products: Vaseline Pistachio Donut; Premier Protein Ultimate; BaBa Vietnamese Yogurt; Backflip Cereal ; Snackish

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Protein Must Have a First Name Now

Products: Wilde Crackers; Elavi Brownies; Parm Bar; Prima Ancestral Protein Bar; David Wild Caught Atlantic Cod

Protein Must Have a First Name Now

Products: Crumbl New Chocolate Chip Cookie and Summer Classics; True Salt; Graza Classic Sea Salt Potato Chips; Milly Single-Origin Pepper; Greatest Tomatoes from Europe Campaign; Hu Cashew Butter + Pure Vanilla Bean Dark Chocolate Bites

The Flavor Fidelity Flip

Products: Hot Pockets Snack Breaks; Bagel Bites Pizza Snacks

Everything Is a Hot Pocket Now

Products: Nature’s Own campaign; Jello Simply without artificial dyes;

Cleaning Up Your Product Isn’t Enough

GUT REACTION

Products: Alert Pop; Wicked Cutz Cinnabon Bacon Jerky; Cuca™ Herb Pops; SPAM dog;Be Spooned

TIDBITS

Quick Bite:The GLP-1 Consumer Doesn't Exist

In today’s FoodStuff Quick Bites:

Products: The Gym Kitchen Nutrient Packed Range; Protein One GLP-1 Friendly; Propel Clear Protein; BoJangle’s Chicken Rippers; Fancypants Coconut Chocolate Chip cookies

The GLP-1 Consumer Doesn’t Exist

The New Baby Gap

Products: Bittman’s Frozen Sourdough; White Lily Frozen Biscuits

Why Baking from the Freezer is so NOW

Carbonated Supplements?

SIGNALS FROM THE SHELF

Products: Bettergoods Tuna and Trout; Island Way Lemonade Bites; Fruit Riot Sunny D Mango; TruFru Greek Yogurt; David Cinnamon Roll bar; Barebells Banana Bread Bar

GUT REACTION

Products: Oroweat Fiber Power;OceanSpray Fireworks Cranberry Mix; Bisquick Cinnamon Toast Crunch; Little Latke potato crisps.

SPECIAL EDITION: Condiments are the New Cereal Aisle

Big CPG Lost Men. Now It's Paying to Get Them Back.

Is Premium Really the Safe Haven CPG Thinks It Is?

Products: Ferrero acquires Brazilian Protein company Bold Snacks; Danone buys Huel; General Mills x Ghost partnership;

Big CPG Lost Men. Now It’s Paying to Get Them Back.

Products: KFC Canada Chili Crunch Menu; Mochi Foods Brownie Mix; Datefix; Brownie Batter Floura; Meiji Frubi; Samanco; Aiko Fruit Bucket

GUT REACTION

Products: Meaties cereal; Miley Cyrus Diet Coke and Panda Express; Pure Kick Alkaline Water packets; M&S Dippy Egg Cookie Cup; Korean Bros

TIDBITS

The E-Shaped Economy Spells Trouble for Big CPG

Products: ProFusion Protein Puffs; Nature Valley Kids Soft Baked Bars ; Snooz Sleep Prep Ice Cream; Sweet Loren’s RTB Bars; Doughpamine Take & Bake Cookies; Pepsico launches Good Warrior beef sticks; Taylor Farms High-Protein line

Satisfying the Contradictory Consumer

Products: Rap Snacks Snoop Dogg Costco exclusive; Belgian Boys Bite-Sized Waffles Costco; Kirkland Crispy Chicken Wings; Boulder Canyon Boulder Batch Agave Sriracha

The E-Shaped Economy Spells Trouble for Big CPG

Are We Building for the Wrong GLP-1 Future?

Products: Prima animal protein and tallow bar; Rello protein, creatine, and collagen bars; fatworks tallow fries; Teddy’s Tallow Chips; Kraft mac & cheese PowerMac (Sam’s exclusive); Philosopher (Gut Nuts) raw pistachio butter and fermented pistachios; It’s Giving prebiotic soda (low cost)

Permission Slip Nutrition

GUT REACTION

Products: e.l.f Big Dill pickle lip balm; Staple Gin; Minor’s Kitchen sauce launch Drizzy peanut butter;Nestle Choco Crossies;

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Food Industry