Both charts point to a consistent theme within Honey Drops for the past two years since I first wrote about the Strait of Hormuz. Namely, once the Strait was closed for the first time, it could only develop into this quagmire due to the high level of confidence required for it to be re-opened.

From Honey Drops #5, October 16th, 2024:

One aspect in particular stood out to me, which I hadn’t previously considered. Any attacks on Iranian oil fields would have a high chance in resulting in the Strait of Hormuz being closed.

Why does this matter? In order for 20% of global oil to move from the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran) to Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, and India), the United States, Europe, Africa and South America, it can only do so by passing through the Strait of Hormuz. If it’s unable to be shipped, the natural result will be an increase in global oil prices due to the restricted supply of one in five barrels.

The mere threat of similar supply-side issues occurring over the past forty years has led to an estimated increase of 10-20% in the price of global oil prices, which then saw higher consumer and commercial fuel prices. If this occurs again, we can expect a flow-on effect of higher costs for transportation, manufacturing, production, operations, prices and therefore increased inflationary pressures.

The easiest way businesses, and the Australian economy in general, can insulate ourselves from geopolitical oil shocks and supply chain disruptions?

Accelerating our transition to renewable energy and becoming energy independent.

And what have we learnt in the past 22 months? That the countries and companies anchored to the present still hoping for the past are only exacerbating the pain just over the horizon.

Chart 1: Brent Crude Oil is +35% this year

Chart 2: Australia now has full exposure to the global oil market

What’s next?

There’s a brittleness to this non-linear world we are in at the moment. It has been sped up by AI, made more expensive by inflation and become riskier through now-exposed supply chains. Most companies have allowed themselves to remain anchored to the present, convincing themselves that indecision is the safest option.

I have been working with Steve Tighe this year to build a small number of plausible futures and pressure-test clients’ decisions across all of them. Whether it’s AI, productivity growth, new market opportunities or evolving regulations, the aim isn’t to predict which future happens, but to find the moves that hold up no matter which one emerges.

And if you want proof the method works, look at the ASRS climate reporting obligations. The businesses that scanned the regulatory horizon early are the ones treating this year’s disclosure requirements as routine. The ones that didn’t are now scrambling as their stakeholders start requesting expected data in a shorter period.

That’s really all foresight is. Seeing what’s moving early enough to still have options beyond your competitors’.

Message me if there’s a strategic play your team is currently stuck on, or existing commercial assumptions are no longer aligned with the current market conditions.

Until next week,
Dan

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A quick gut check before you read on:

Is my company in Group 2? If you hit two of three qualifiers ($200m+ revenue, $500m+ gross assets, 250+ employees), then yes.

Is 1st July a deadline to file? No.

Is it the start of the period I have to report on? Yes.

Does that mean I need systems in place now, not next year? Yes.

Will someone in my business tell me this can wait? Almost certainly.

Are they right? No.

That’s the whole newsletter in seven lines. The rest is why it matters and what to do about it.

What’s Actually Changing?

Group 1 are the largest entities in the country and have been reporting since last year. From 1st July, Group 2 joins them. Your first mandatory reporting period under AASB S2 begins for financial years starting on or after that date.

The trap is the word “reporting.” It sounds like a filing exercise, something the finance team handles at year end. But it isn’t. The disclosures you’ll have to make across governance, climate-related risks and opportunities, strategy, risk management, and metrics, including emissions, describe what you did across the whole period. Day one included.

It is difficult to backfill a year you didn’t measure. If the data systems, governance structures and risk processes aren’t running on 1st July, your baseline is already going to be hard to discover.

It also means the spreadsheets you rely on are just going to be giving you blind spots.

What’s Mandatory, And What Isn’t?

This is where a lot of the noise lives, so let me be plain about it.

Mandatory from your first period: this includes your governance disclosures, your climate risk and opportunity assessment, how it feeds strategy, your risk management process and Scope 1 and 2 emissions controlled by your organisation.

Phased, not optional-forever: Supply chain emissions (Scope 3) are required from your second reporting year, not your first. There’s also limited legal protection around certain forward-looking and Scope 3 statements in the early years, which has been designed so you disclose honestly while your data matures, but not designed so that you stay quiet.

Quietly mandatory (even if no one’s said it to you yet): the internal capability to produce all of the above on a repeatable annual basis. That’s the part that takes the longest to build and the part most often left until it’s too late.

Why This Lands On The CEO’s Desk

It’s tempting to delegate this to Sustainability or Finance and move on. Two reasons not to.

First, ASIC’s recently-ex-Chair, Joe Longo, called this the biggest change to corporate reporting in a generation. It sits in your annual report, under Directors’ oversight. The accountability is yours.

Second, this becomes public, comparable information. Investors are already screening you for it, customers are already asking your sales teams for it, lenders are already providing lower interest rates if you have it, and the people you’re trying to hire are looking for it. Each party will read what you disclose and they’ll notice the gaps.

Done well, a clear disclosure is a signal that the business is run with foresight. Done poorly, or late, and it reads exactly the opposite.

What To Do In The Next 90 Days

Confirm your group and your start date. Know precisely which financial year is your first reporting period.

Find your baseline gaps now. What climate data are you already capturing, and what’s missing for Scope 1 and 2? Missing data captured late is the single most expensive mistake here.

Put governance on paper. Who owns this at board and executive level, and how does it get reviewed. Auditors will be asking.

Map your supply chain emissions early, even though it’s a year out. The work to identify your value-chain emissions takes longer than people expect, and starting now makes year two calm instead of frantic. For many companies, more than 80% of their total emissions sit outside of their direct operations. This means there’s a lot of supplier engagement to be done in order to have the full picture in time.

Decide what you build in-house versus where you need a specialist partner. Be honest about capacity before the period starts, not halfway through it after you have tried to share the work around internally.

The Bottom Line

The companies that treat 1st July as a starting line and not a finish line will turn this into a commercial advantage. They’ll have clean data, a credible story and one less thing keeping the board up at night. The ones who wait will spend next year explaining a gap they can’t close and finding themselves behind the 8-ball from the jump.

You’ve got a window right now to be in the first cohort. It closes next week.

If you don’t know where your gaps are, that’s the first problem to fix. The Ocelli Group runs a 15-minute ASRS Friction Scan: a focused conversation to assess your current readiness and identify your material risk exposure. No pitch, no obligation, just a clear read on where you stand.

From there, we’ll name the top three vulnerabilities most likely to create audit failure or Director liability in your organisation, and if it’s useful, line up the right specialist partner to close them with you.

Book Yours Now

If this was useful, it’s the kind of thing I unpack here every issue — what’s coming, what’s optional, and what’s quietly mandatory, without the buzzword soup. Forward it to a leader in a Group 2 business who’s still treating 1 July as a deadline.

Until next week,

Dan

Welcome back to Honey Drops. Since the beginning of March, we have been evaluating how the global energy shock will impact your business and the national economy. Specifically, how an abrupt shortage in oil and fertiliser coming into the country will harm farmers, truckers, the supermarkets and, therefore, us.

We also hosted Ellie Moss to explore why Exec teams are not making the connection between sustainability and the resilient business practices they’re currently searching for.

Which brings us to today’s guest, Paula Kensington. Paula is a seven-times CFO and someone I always enjoyed speaking with due to her insights, honesty and willingness to challenge her peers to be more proactive with building the commercial resilience of their orgs.

She is the Co-CEO and Subject Matter Lead at Authentyx, Director Finance & Beyond Sustainability at Future Value Global, Founder & CEO of PK Advisory as well as Founder & CEO of CFO Conversations, which I appeared on in November.

Paula brings her 30 years of corporate commercial experience to this conversation, bridging the critical gap between traditional, black-and-white financial compliance and the dynamic, hypercolour world of today’s energy security, climate risk and sustainability.

One of the key takeaways for me from this conversation is the importance in not only knowing the financial background of your CFO (Accounting vs Financial Planning & Analysis) but more importantly, that mandatory climate reporting is forcing these two sides of the finance department to work together at this scale, for the first time.

Paula breaks down why this is, and how Sustainability teams can be the bridge between the two internal teams.

Importantly, we explore what CFOs can do to avoid an “emphasis of matter” from their auditor and, in the process, avoid significant value destruction.

Paula also shares that the level of expectation on CFOs are putting many into a state of overwhelm, meaning they are missing the interconnected benefits of embedding sustainability within their business model. She suggests ways this can be rectified in the commercial environment we are currently operating in.

Finally, here is the Mandated Climate Reporting masterclass Paula refers to in the episode, for Directors and Executive Leaders wanting to understand what climate reporting means to them and their role.

Until next week,

Dan

Yesterday, I mapped the supply chain rupture threatening Australian retailers. We know the crisis is here. So why is the C-suite still dragging their feet on funding the transition?

Because they’re being pitched the wrong way.

I sat down with Ellie Moss, Managing Director of Focus Group, to reverse-engineer boardroom psychology. We dissected why traditional ESG pitches fail and how internal champions should reframe their initiatives to secure immediate executive buy-in.

If you are fighting for budget, you need to understand:

1. The “Special Snowflake” Problem (Why moral framing kills your business case).

2. The Functional Axis (Why executives care personally, but only buy functionally).

3. Why you need to step up as the “Chief Future Proof Officer.”

Get the playbook in today’s Honey Drops interview.

Are you selling “emissions reductions,” or are you selling “supply chain survival”?

📑 Executive Summary (For Internal Forwarding)

• The Macro Threat: Supermarkets sit at the end of a national supply chain. They absorb the aggregated geopolitical risk of the agricultural and freight sectors. The current fragile ceasefire offers no structural relief to this vulnerability.

• The Direct Margin Impact: As global chokepoints inflate the cost of imported fertiliser and refined diesel, agricultural yields drop and freight costs rapidly increase. Supermarkets are forced to absorb these compounded, inflated operational costs to keep shelves stocked.

• The Imminent Operational Risk: Supermarkets own the shelves, but they do not control the supply lines. The energy vulnerability of their fragile, diesel-dependent suppliers now directly threatens core retail revenue. Failing to map Tier 2 and Tier 3 supplier resilience guarantees supply chain paralysis and empty shelves.

The Cascading Shock: The Terminal Exposure

To understand the vulnerability of Australian supermarkets, you must recognise their structural reality: they are the apex of a retail ecosystem built entirely on the assumption of cheap, uninterrupted imported energy.

As we have mapped over the past week, the agricultural sector relies on offshore ammonia processing, while the freight sector runs exclusively on imported diesel, due to a critically low national reserve. As geopolitical conflict fractures these supply lines, the resulting margin compression rolls uphill. The supermarket is forced to foot the bill for the farmer’s inflated fertiliser and the trucker’s inflated fuel costs, until they pass it on to the consumer. Instead of the current ceasefire fixing the supply chain, it has merely delayed the next price shock.

The Reality Check: The Vendor Domino Effect

For large retailers, margin compression is a commercial headache, but supplier liquidations are an existential threat.

This is the ultimate operational trap: A supermarket’s revenue model is dependent on the daily survival of thousands of independent operators. If a critical mass of logistics partners or agricultural producers are paralysed by a severe geopolitical fuel shock, the domino effect reaches the loading docks in a matter of days. You cannot shield your balance sheet if you do not have visibility into your vendors’ physical vulnerabilities.

The Solution: Unlocking the Silos

Relying on a supply chain tethered to foreign fossil fuels without extreme visibility is a recipe for stranded inventory and operational paralysis.

To achieve Persivilience and secure your shelves, retailers must audit their supply chains deep into the Tier 2 and Tier 3 levels. By conducting structural vulnerability assessments across your vendor network, you identify the operational weaknesses exposed to global volatility. Procurement must then bridge these gaps by prioritising localised producers and electrified freight partners. This secures your supply lines and ensures you actually have products to sell as the next shock hits.

🛑 Secure Your Operational Resilience

The complexity of energy security is a liability only if your silos remain locked. Stop guessing your supply chain vulnerability.

Schedule Your Vulnerability Baseline Assessment

Are you driving this internally? Book a scoping call, and we will help you build the business case for your Board.

Executive Summary (For Internal Forwarding)

• The Macro Threat: The current 14-day ceasefire masks a structural crisis, made worse by the failed negotiations in Islamabad. Australian logistics relies on imported diesel, with national reserves critically low (sub-20 days). The “just-in-time” supply chain is fundamentally exposed to foreign geopolitical volatility.

• The Direct Margin Impact: Logistics operate on cents-per-kilometre rates. Unpredictable spot-price spikes in refined fuel instantly erase profit margins, forcing compounding cost increases onto every physical good moving through the national economy.

• The Imminent Compliance Risk: Extreme vulnerability to fossil fuel chokepoints constitutes a legally disclosable Transition Risk. Furthermore, a freight provider’s carbon reliance directly becomes the supply chain compliance liability of their enterprise clients, triggering vendor audits and possible contract terminations.

The Cascading Shock: The End of “Just-In-Time”

The Australian transport sector is operating on borrowed time. The modern logistics model was engineered for efficiency, stripping out buffers to achieve “just-in-time” delivery to hit customer targets. This highly-calibrated system works when there is a constant, stable flow of imported refined diesel.

That stability has vanished. When global chokepoints constrict through blockages or blockades, Australia’s lack of sovereign fuel reserves force domestic providers into bidding wars for energy. Every cent added to the spot price of diesel is weakening the commercial viability of legacy freight contracts. The current 14-day political truce was forecast to offer a temporary price reprieve, but it confirms the structural vulnerability of Australian logistics: providers are entirely at the mercy of foreign conflicts they cannot control.

Supply Chain Contagion

When a logistics provider suffers severe financial distress due to fuel supply chain fractures, that exposure is the result of failing to transition away from diesel-intensive operations. Regulators require this financial vulnerability to be measured and disclosed.

The contagion effect here is the creation of brittle conditions. A trucking company’s fuel supply vulnerability instantly transfers to the balance sheets of the supermarkets, hardware chains and hospitals they service. These large consumer-facing brands cannot afford the commercial liability of utilising high-risk, legacy transport vendors.

The Solution: Unlocking the Silos

Relying on a transport network tethered to foreign diesel imports is a guaranteed path to lost contracts and supply chain paralysis.

To achieve persivilience, procurement strategies must pivot to assess their transport vendors. Integrating logistics solutions, such as localised distribution hubs, electrified freight corridors and hydrogen transition pathways, insulates your operations from global price shocks. This ensures your supply chain remains operational while generating the exact data required to satisfy ASIC audits.

🛑 Secure Your 2026 Resilience

The complexity of energy security is a liability only if your silos remain locked. Stop guessing your transition risk.

Schedule Your Double Materiality Assessment

Are you driving this internally? Book a scoping call above, and we will help you build the business case for your Board.

Executive Summary (For Internal Forwarding)

• The Macro Threat: We are operating in a precarious 14-day window. The agricultural sector and the nation’s food security rely entirely on a fragile hydrocarbon loop. Even with the Strait potentially reopening at the time of writing, our reliance on imported refined diesel and foreign urea processing has been exposed as a significant, recurring structural vulnerability.

• The Direct Margin Impact: Fractures in global shipping instantly inflate the cost of foreign fertiliser and refined fuel. This triggers severe margin compression across agricultural yields and cold-chain logistics, forcing significant cost increases before produce even reaches supermarket shelves.

• The Imminent Compliance Risk: Under July’s AASB S2 mandates, severe vulnerability to fossil fuel chokepoints constitutes a legally disclosable Transition Risk. Tier 1 retailers and logistics providers face compliance failure if they cannot accurately map the energy transition readiness of their agricultural vendors.

The Cascading Shock: The Hydrocarbon Loop

The Australian agricultural supply chain is operating on a structural vulnerability. The ability to feed the population is tethered to unbroken global shipping lanes and foreign energy processing, delivering the required resources on a reliable schedule.

The system functions on a continuous, high-risk cycle. Australia exports raw ammonia offshore for chemical processing, requiring it to be imported back at a premium as synthetic nitrogen and urea to fertilise the soil. Simultaneously, we import refined diesel, distribute it to remote regions to power the heavy machinery required for the harvest, and utilise further diesel reserves to haul the produce via freight back to supermarkets.

If geopolitical fractures cut off the flow of foreign fertiliser and imported diesel, suppliers are forced into global spot-price bidding wars, generating immediate and fast margin reduction that cascades from the regional farmer directly onto the balance sheets of major retailers.

The S2 Reality Check: Defining Transition Risk

There is a prevalent belief at the executive level that geopolitical fuel shortages fall outside the scope of climate reporting. However, under the S2 mandates, these events highlight the exact market dynamics boards must legally disclose.

S2 mandates the disclosure of Transition Risks, namely the financial risks associated with the global shift toward a lower-carbon economy. When a business model suffers severe financial damage due to its reliance on imported hydrocarbons, that commercial vulnerability exists precisely because of a carbon-intensive supply chain. The resulting financial exposure shows a failure to transition to resilient and sovereign low-carbon operational models. Regulators now legally require the board to monitor, assess and disclose these specific vulnerabilities.

The Solution: Unlocking the Silos

Running a supply chain tethered to imported fossil fuels into a mandatory regulatory audit without disclosing the associated risks leaves organisations open to scrutiny from customers, regulators, investors, insurers and lenders. It also raises the possibility of owning stranded assets and enduring supply chain paralysis.

To achieve Persivilience and secure your July 2026 filings, procurement must be decoupled from these fractured global energy lines. Integrating Australian solutions can insulate your margins from global volatility. This dual action secures your supply chain while generating the precise data required to satisfy ASIC audits and remain a reliable partner to your Tier 1 customers.

🛑 Secure Your 2026 Resilience

The complexity of energy security is a liability only if your silos remain locked. Stop guessing your transition risk.

Schedule Your Double Materiality Assessment

Are you driving this internally? Book a 30-minute scoping call, and we will help you build the business case for your Board.

📑 Executive Summary (For Internal Forwarding)

• The Macro Threat: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz for the past six weeks has frozen Gulf oil exports (20% of global supply), Qatari LNG (20% of global supply), fertiliser (30%), urea (50%), sulfur (50%), methanol (33%), polyethylene (50%) and helium (30%).

• The Geopolitical Leverage: Cyclone damage to Australia’s North West Shelf export facilities mean Australia’s long-standing energy leverage as the third-largest LNG exporter has also been weakened. Refined fuel costs are now entirely exposed to global spot-price bidding wars.

• The Direct Margin Impact: Heavy margin compression is now evident across all sectors reliant on imported diesel and global shipping: Mining & Resources, Freight & Logistics, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Construction, Healthcare, Manufacturing, Retail, Hospitality and Tech.

• The Imminent Compliance Risk: Under July 2026 AASB S2 mandates, boards have a responsibility to disclose this Market and Policy Transition Risk. Failure to map the effectiveness of your existing risk management framework, governance model, commercial strategy and supply chain vulnerability will result in plummeting margins, stranded assets and supply chain paralysis. Each material impact will be as a result of the board failing to accurately assess and transition away from the vulnerabilities they are legally required to monitor.

The Cascading Shock: Why Your Operations Are Exposed

We are watching a systemic failure in real-time. The dual assumption that the flow of Australia’s lifeblood, diesel, would never be threatened and that Australia’s domestic gas reserves would act as an economic shield, has been shattered. Significant repairs are now required for the severe North West cyclone damage as well as our heavy reliance on Singaporean, Malaysian, South Korean and Chinese refined fuel imports for our Freight and Agriculture distribution, who themselves receive their crude oil shipments from the Gulf.

Even before the actual impacts of the closure hit in two weeks, or global LNG tankers start re-routing to chase the highest bidder and the Australian Government fails to secure the required refined fuel deliveries, Australia’s domestic industries are already having to foot the inflated bill. If you run logistics fleets, build infrastructure, manage commercial real estate or supply supermarkets, your legacy supply chain is fundamentally mispriced for this new era of volatility.

The Solution: Unlocking the Silos

This is the new compliance trap of 2026: You are running an obsolete supply chain into a mandatory regulatory audit.

To survive this energy shock and pass your ASIC audit, you must achieve Persivilience. This requires shifting procurement away from fractured global energy lines and integrating local solutions (electrified local fleets, B-Corps, domestic renewable grids). This dual action insulates your balance sheet from Middle Eastern volatility while simultaneously generating the exact data required to pass the July mandates and be the reliable partner your customers need you to be.

🛑 Secure Your 2026 Resilience

The complexity of energy security is a liability only if your silos remain locked. Stop guessing your transition risk.

Schedule Your Double Materiality Assessment

Are you driving this internally? Book a 30 minute scoping call, and we will help you build the business case for your Board.

Marketers love graphs like these. So do VC firms. The hockey stick. The J Curve.

CFOs, though, really hate a supply-side J Curve.

When oil prices spike, as the WTI did this week, surging toward $116 a barrel, it triggers a predictable and painful sequence: spooked markets freeze revenue, operational costs erode margins, and key stakeholders demand to know why the business wasn't hedged against the 'unthinkable'.

As soon as the insurance companies rescinded existing policies and aggressively adjusted premiums from $50,000 for a shipment to $750,000 for the exact same shipment to continue its journey, the economics stopped stacking up.

The vast majority of ships not sailing = an effectively closed Strait.

“The people who are terrified are the people who understand energy.” - Ed Conway, Economics and Data Editor, Sky News UK

Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs in Qatar and President & CEO of QatarEnergy, has warned that the current conflict could bring down economies around the world, based on oil-producing nations in the Gulf shuttering their production for weeks.

Oil prices can only go north in that scenario, with many predictions forecasting above $150 a barrel. At $150 USD per barrel, the baseline cost of raw crude alone is over $1.33 AUD per litre before it even hits a refinery. Once refined in Singapore, shipped to Australia and taxed via the fuel excise and GST, the baseline pump price means pre-March financial forecasts are out the window.

Here is what CFOs need to model for their fleet and logistics costs:

• Unleaded 91: $2.40 – $2.55 per litre

• Premium Unleaded 95: $2.55 – $2.70 per litre

• Premium Unleaded 98: $2.65 – $2.85 per litre

• Diesel: $2.45 – $2.65 per litre

Even if the production of LNG was started up tomorrow by Qatar, it could still take weeks or months to get back to delivering planned shipments. Hence the force majeure clauses invoked by Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. This allows for the halting of contractual obligations when ‘extraordinary events beyond their control’ occur. The literal translation is ‘superior strength’.

And starting back up tomorrow ain’t happening. If for no other reason than their largest gas plant has been hit by an Iranian drone.

Unfortunately, fuel costs aren’t the only line item about to increase: 30-40% of the world’s fertiliser stock travels through the Strait, too, a key ingredient in the global food system.

This creates a brutal, unavoidable math problem. We are about to watch the globe fiercely compete for energy with only 75% of normal supply available, and for fertiliser with just 60-70% available.

At a bare minimum, beyond those with operations in the immediate Gulf states, CFOs are now being forced to re-forecast their increased transportation costs, along with where food shortages will be impacting their workforce, reducing productivity and boosting wage inflation.

Generic ‘energy modernisation’ won’t solve a crisis of this scale. At The Ocelli Group, we specialise in rapid margin protection. We help leadership teams actively restructure their energy dependencies and overhaul disrupted financial models to weather immediate supply chain shocks.

Message me to discuss how we can insulate your balance sheet against this unprecedented volatility.

Until next week,

Dan

Well that didn't take long.

When I first wrote about the Strait of Hormuz in October 2024, and again last June, it was as an example of why Directors and Execs should be updating their scenario analysis for geopolitical risk. Specifically, the commercial impact of acute oil prices spikes and shipping costs in this inflationary environment.

Namely, how a diversification of energy sources to include locally-based renewables would be an astute hedge against any future increases in such price shocks.

Why is that?

20% of the world's oil goes through this 39km opening, which Iran has viewed as a major leverage point to ward off any military strikes during times of heightened tensions with the U.S, Israel and the Gulf states.

Fast forward 18 months, air strikes are going into Iran and Iran is firing into seven different countries, including those who export their oil and LNG through the Strait. Next door, Pakistan has declared war against Afghanistan, and the oil many Australian businesses rely on for their day to day operations is about to become pretty volatile.

Some estimates are that is could jump from $67USD a barrel to $100 in the coming days, which will have a direct impact on Australian households and businesses.

In fact, Reuters has reported that up to 150 tankers dropped anchor in the Gulf yesterday. Insurance firms have been cancelling existing shipping policies and re-negotiating 50% increases in premiums for those shipping firms wanting to continue their operations. The cost of those delays and the increases in the cost of shipping will only be going in one direction: to the end user.

To expand the focus, China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and if they are forced to compete for oil from other countries, there will be further upward pressure on the price of oil.

With airports across the Middle East either closed or having all flights cancelled, global trade is now at risk of being impacted.

Just as Australia has hit 50% of all energy use being sourced from renewables. Such energy security will only strengthen as oil becomes further leveraged in the many geopolitical hotspots currently unfolding.

At The Ocelli Group, one of our partners specialises in helping companies modernise their energy mix to reduce your expenditure and increase margins.

Message me to discuss the most appropriate strategy for your business amidst this volatility and complexity, as your CFO looks for solutions to their financial modelling being disrupted.

Until next week,
Dan

Written by Lara Husselbee and Dan Leverington

Surf lifesavers are consistently scanning the horizon, not just watching the shoreline in between the red and yellow flags. While they are not expected to see everything ahead of time, we do expect them to read patterns, anticipate risk and make judgement calls that keep beachgoers safe, all day, all summer long.

For those of us who grew up with sand between our toes and zinc on our faces, the initial foray into surf lifesaving is Nippers. While on the surface Nippers can look like it’s just about winning a medal, really it is a gamified apprenticeship in resilience. We learned to wade before we swam, to read a rip before charging in for the Swim, and, crucially, how to save someone without becoming a casualty in the process ourselves.

“Surf-lifesaving and Nippers showed that risk could be managed together, by communities. And instead of being either eliminated or romanticised, it might instead be respected and even embraced.” - Damien Cave, ‘Into the Rip’.

For over a century, this model has built lifelong self-sufficiency across generations, producing over 180,000 active bronze-trained volunteer lifesavers through Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA). Rather than sitting in a classroom lecturing about the theory of water safety on a blackboard, the magic happens by creating an environment where kids learn to face uncertainty, adapt accordingly and contribute to a cause larger than themselves.

Nippers are taken from the shallows to the surf through progressive learning, clear rituals, community scaffolding and a clear purpose:

“Growing a child’s confidence, knowledge and skills in the beach environment.” - SLSA

We believe this model maps well to how Leaders should prepare their people to step into the unknown of AI, Cyber and ESG, namely with collective strength, skills and confidence.

“Nostalgia is not a strategy.” - Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, World Economic Forum, Davos, 20th January 2026

In a post-Mark-Carney-At-Davos world (which has 900,000 views after three weeks - positively viral for the World Economic Forum), Australian organisations are operating in conditions just as volatile as the beach, shaped by invisible, fast-moving forces threatening the sovereign independence of middle power countries.

Instead of this volatility creating air cover for ignorance, it is instead demanding leaders to exhibit the kind of empathy and strategic foresight we learned on the sand, to ensure businesses and our national economy are match-fit for the flurry of new deals on offer with values-aligned trading partners.

In 2026, Boards and Exec teams are having to navigate the choppy waters of AI, Cyber and ESG simultaneously, both personally and for their organisations. Gone are the days when externalities could remain off the balance sheet. As a result, we are seeing leaders who cut their teeth in a previous era having to upskill in real-time as customers, investors, insurers, employees, local communities and government regulators look on with higher expectations for action than ever before.

This new era is very much at the forefront of institutional investors’ commercial decisions. British Columbia Investment Management, for example, recently explained their strategic thinking about how and why they prioritise an ESG matrix to maximise their members’ returns:

“[They are] A set of societal issues that, due to their growing relevance, have become material to business performance. These factors influence core drivers of enterprise value such as profitability, risk exposure, capital allocation and readiness for exit.”

As you come back from your own summer holidays, there’s no need to wash the sand off your feet completely. Take a look at this living model of change, Surf Life Saving Australia’s Nippers, to guide you through the incoming sets of 2026.

Training before hitting the waves

On days when parents wanted “the swim” cancelled due to big sets of waves, we knew we had our training to lean on. We’d done the work to handle the sets on the way out, decide which waves to catch and, more importantly, which ones to avoid. This confidence wasn’t misplaced bravado, but borne from graded exposure, repetition and trust in our pattern recognition.

The US Navy Seals often recite the mantra “Calm is Contagious”. Well, so is panic. Sunday competitions remained calm because of training, where we learnt to approach the surf carefully, keep calm and communicate clearly to support each other. These drills and learning pathways meant we had the confidence to make real-time decisions and pivot quickly based on the conditions. You don’t learn resilience in the shallows: just as you have to hit the waves to learn how to do it better next time, you can only learn how to grab the sand while under a big wave to see how effective it is in not being blown off-course during the race.

“You don’t get to choose the chess pieces you are given in life, but you do get to choose what you do with them.” - Dan’s Gran

Clinging to the wrong flags

In our Nippers days, dangers were proactively communicated and planned for accordingly, because we weren’t expected to be able to see all the conditions. This instruction is how we learnt to read the patterns.

In corporate Australia, we often talk about VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous). Good leaders are often described as “pragmatic”, guided by the data to make decisions that will deliver guaranteed ROI for shareholders. We have both seen leaders often behave as if “certainty” is the default, even when the metrics of success themselves are outdated. That isn’t pragmatism, it’s clinging to the wrong flags.

Being able to hold opposing perspectives depends on having the right safety protocols in place, both across the organisation and in the “play pen”. These guardrails are what allow teams to stay calm in uncertainty, rather than being pulled into the turbulence of the whitewash.

With the horizon in view and the right processes in place, you don’t have to paddle for every wave. Sometimes, you earn the luxury to watch competitors being distracted by the big set while you elect to wait for the more reliable wave needed to get back to the beach safely.

“It was also the emphasis on proficiency and competence, rather than perfection. He realised that not all of the people training beside him were destined to be lifeguards, but they all had something to offer.” - Damien Cave, ‘Into the Rip’

ECON2026: From Whaling Boats to Drones

The SLSA has had to constantly modernise in-line with the times: its history arcs from one of its main competitive activities, surfboat rowing, whose origins are found in the hulls of whaling boats, to now rubber duckies, jetskis and drones, the organisation has had to come a long way in 119 years. They have also had to navigate coastal erosion changing the way beaches behave, which has in turn increased the risks to longstanding, expensive physical infrastructure, like clubhouses, boat ramps and carparks.

Increasingly, this has expanded to community expectations, which has required new forms of craft. Take, for example, the shocking shark attacks in short succession along the Eastern seaboard recently. While it is a tragedy any attacks took place, the SLSA has been proactively scanning the water for sharks for the past eight summers, in order to mitigate this exact threat. They have invested in the testing of drone technology, training the surf lifesavers through to accreditation to ensure they have a prepared workforce well-drilled in emergency situations.

Just as the SLSA has had to modernise their practices, so too, do organisations in the face of this VUCA world. Beth Dowe, Executive Director of the Australian Climate Leaders Coalition, recently appeared on the Green Fix podcast to discuss just this, namely the importance of Australia’s companies doubling down on trusted business coalitions and pre‑competitive collaboration to deliver at-scale impact, and drive commercial efficiencies throughout all value chains.

Whether through renewable energy PPAs, large-scale solar and battery installations or cost-effective energy efficiency measures, it’s this curiosity for solutions to difficult problems that will ensure a leader’s legacy, well after they have handed over the reins, by creating defensive moats around their business models, today.

Such moats can only be created by empowering teams to craft solutions for problems that can’t always be seen at the highest levels of organisations. As the waves are the constant, your legacy will be measured by whether your people knew how to read them, ride them, and return to shore safely together.

The Nippers Framework for Change

Dan and Lara have created tools from their time at Nippers to help leaders as they rough the seas of 2026 and beyond. Contact them to find out more on this toolkit and Speaker series.

Change, just like the ocean, never stops moving. But when teams are built the way Nippers are, with clear rituals, shared tools, repeatable behaviours, strong community and deep stories, they develop something more valuable than certainty: confidence in motion.

To build a team that can handle the 2026 and beyond swell, we must look at five core elements:

• Tools (something to hold onto): In Nippers, it’s the rescue tube or board. In business, it’s shared frameworks and playbooks. Tools don’t remove risk, but they do make it visible and manageable.

• Behaviours (confidence through repetition): Change readiness can’t be an email. We must practice before the pressure hits through graduated exposure.

• Rituals (stability in motion): While the surf conditions change every Sunday, the parents running the sausage sizzle and the patrol briefings are a constant. Rituals like retrospectives and open forums create the psychological safety needed for teams to perform.

• Community (movements, not mandate): SLSA is the second most-trusted charity in Australia. It thrives because of an ecosystem of community-minded volunteers, not as a result of centrally-imposed mandates.

• Stories (meaning before metrics): People follow purpose and impact, not processes. Leaders must be the narrators who share stories of the “gnarly problems” solved, not just spreadsheets updated.

Diving Under The Waves, Not Over Them

In dynamic environments, the advantage belongs to those who can read the patterns, act within clear boundaries and learn in real-time. What carries people through unpredictable conditions is a collective readiness built through practice, structure and trust. This removes the need to rely on bravado or prediction. You won’t find future-ready teams standing on the shore waiting for a window of stability: rather than avoiding it, they are creating their success by leveraging this exact volatility to their advantage.

Note From The Authors:

We would both like to acknowledge the members of the two Bondi Surf Life Saving Clubs who were present during the Bondi terrorist attack on the 14th of December 2025. Their actions are a century of training: readiness, care, teamwork and service to community. When it mattered the most, they acted and saved lives.

We are also grateful to Damien Cave and his book ‘Into the Rip’. His book pulled Lara back into nostalgia for summer, the taste of salt and sunscreen. It got her thinking about the way our childhood can quietly travel with us, about learning and risk. Without raising this book to me, I’m not sure the seeds his book planted would have helped these ideas take hold and grow.

Lara Husselbee is a Design Leader with over 15 years’ experience helping complex organisations turn ambiguity into aligned action through CX, systems thinking and human-centred change. SLSC has been a big part of her life and connection with her late father. She kicked it off with Nippers at Avalon SLSC before joining Palm Beach SLSC when she was 18 and is still an active member. She has also competed in Surf Boat Rowing for Palm Beach, North Steyne & Manly SLSC. You can find her work on www.larahusselbee.com

Dan Leverington is a Strategic Partnerships Architect with over 20 years’ experience orchestrating high-stakes revenue ecosystems for global leaders in Australia and the US. Before he started high school, though, he was a member of the City Beach SLSC in Wollongong and then Fingal Bay SLSC in Port Stephens. Find out all about Dan & Ocelli at www.ocelli.group

As always, this is for someone you know who is in the trenches and needs to know they’re not alone.

I remember myself as being a pretty scared kid growing up.

Lying there, thinking of what the monster looked like under the bed. Any eight-year-old has had this experience: paralysed by fear, unable to hit the light switch, unable to see whether it’s there or not, but expecting-the-worst, this-is-the-end, nonetheless.

Running the garbage down to the bin on a Thursday night, feeling the trepidation of not having the outside lights on, wondering who or what could be lurking in the bushes. Running back inside once the payload had been tossed in the receptacle. Quickly closing the front door, having evaded the threat, once again.

Always the last one to make the leap at Jump Rock into the surging surf, only once everyone was down there, treading water, kindly demanding I join them in this feat of masculinity, as only teenage boys can.

It’s funny how now, thinking about it through the comfort zone vs growth zone framework, can flip that self-reflection on its head.

And I do seem to have outgrown this aversion to risk. I’m now running my second business, have lived on four continents and spend my days discussing, cajoling and guiding companies on their risk mitigation/climate/sustainability/net zero initiatives.

And in some meetings, I don’t see (conditional) Courage. I just see (conditional). I see people who may as well be walking into the office wearing a blindfold each day.

People who have their role, their responsibilities, their incentive structures. Clearly mapped out, but going nowhere.

People who earn pretty good money, have a fancy title, have families who are proud of them.

It’s all relative, though, isn’t it? When their kids grow up and ask the classic ‘And what did you do?”, what version of a blank face will be selected off the shelf?

I wonder if those of us, who have made the calculation that ECON101 hasn’t actually accounted for the externalities inherent in conducting business on Earth, are the courageous ones?

To run into the proverbial fire at the high risk of being burnt, rather than close the blinds and go back to the telly?

Or is it more courageous to bury your head in the sand? To remain oblivious to the risks creeping up our walls, in order to ensure plausible deniability? To either be shocked when there’s nothing left to do, or sail through unaware of all the work that has gone into keeping us in a liveable environment?

Cos that also sounds pretty courageous, in a weird way. To ignore the gravitational pull of enlightened self-interest, and leave it in the lap of the gods, letting sleeping dogs lie.

Incentives and bonuses are designed to create leverage points, as we are seeing around the world as business and political leaders buckle. Whether it’s a mortgage, school fees or a company’s annual profits: the pressure to remain sated and seated is intense, when standing up is what holds the premium. Or excess.

Our tall poppy syndrome makes taking a backseat a feature, not a bug.

For who are we, really, but a small cog in a large machine, where the titles of CEO, Chair or institutional investor can’t even grease the gears. Where the masters of the universe are, unfortunately, just helpless, you see, unable to even make a dent in an economic transformation, when the name of the game is to just not come last. Musical Chairs in Suits.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it” - Upton Sinclair, 1935

Such a softly, softly don’t-upset-the-applecart approach is in stark contrast to the courage Sustainability folk embody each day.

How do you politely/ effectively/ strategically/ collaboratively help someone, whose self-identity is that of a successful businessman, see that the balance sheets they have padded their bank accounts with are missing a few columns?

Emissions is an easy one to add; but also the Gini coefficient of societal inequality; those profit margins regenerated by the destruction of nature (‘like a miracle, it will just disappear…’); the company’s now-baked in future insurance premiums and interest rate increases as a result of their current focus on hitting this quarter’s target; the suppliers who have no idea of the physical and financial risks waiting for them just over the next hill because word is yet to be passed down the chain; the threat to national and energy security if we don’t transition the economy away from a reliance on oil imports and coal exports.

We should always think WWJGD: What Would Jane Goodall Do?

“By talking to people as individuals, by presenting facts fairly, by not blaming, by telling the sort of stories that people remember. Just tell people stories, try and find out who they are, try and find something that links you with them.”

Simple, but so hard.

Because when Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs is threatened, for some, courage seems to evaporate:

For others, however, this threat is the starting gun for a new path in life. The sense of purpose it gives people comes from tapping into our tribal minds. The defending of self, family, community, nation and planet against a threat to the collective.

This courage in its own way is (conditional). It is only activated when there is a direct threat. And it either hits people at different points, or never at all.

One of the rarely-discussed traits of those not wanting to engage with the consequences of a changing climate is the inherent fear they are unwilling or unable to face. The scale is overwhelming, the problem too big to know where to start. The angry bluster hides the lack of control.

They will close those blinds, go back to watching that telly and make fun of the pearl-clutchers who say the sky is falling in, when really, we ALL know it just makes winter more enjoyable, so stop complaining, would you?

But we should also be realistic. Rosa Parks is famous for a reason, so too Nelson Mandela: People with genuine courage are rare. They’re so rare I’ve just name-checked someone’s act from 1955 and another’s imprisonment from 1963-1990.

That’s because being courageous is lonely, it's not a recommended career path suggested during school job fairs, and it has an annoying habit of holding a mirror up to people not ready to see their own reflection.

Including ourselves.

It’s not the kind of job descriptions many people would submit an application for.

And that’s why it’s so important that if you feel the urge in you, listen to it.

You could provide the genuine inflection point someone is waiting for. Or you may not. And that’s why it takes courage: the odds ain’t on your side. But you already knew that, and you’re still reading. That’s a good sign.

Focus on creating the ripple, and be at peace with the fact that you will never see where it ends up.

Until next week,
Dan

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Share this with the parents or teachers you know, as I’m sure there will be many sparks of ideas, conversations and solutions coming out of this.

I’ve been wanting to have Sally Giblin on Honey Drops for ages. Mark Rowland introduced us earlier in the year, and I was immediately struck not just by her mission to captivate children with the magic of climate solutions through playful experiences, but also her enthusiasm and positivity for it.

Sal runs Be The Future, working with early learning centres, primary schools, councils and cultural institutions like Taronga Zoo and to bring climate agency to kids through interactive sustainability experiences.

You love to see it, because it’s pretty bloody important work:

Did you know that 56% of young people currently believe the world is doomed?

That’s not great for a kid’s mental health, their relationships, social unity, the economy or the country’s long-term future. And not something we can ignore as ‘kids just being kids’, like falling out of a tree.

Thankfully, Sal is leading from the front, showing children across the country how they can be the future. She is also involved with Parents For Climate Action and shares some great tips in the interview for those of you wanting to know what you can do to get involved.

Enjoy this chat!

Dan

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Welcome to the 40th edition of Honey Drops, in which we’re zooming out to take a look at the Australian economy: who it’s currently designed for, the alternatives we could have, and why our social fabric relies on a transformation.

This was such a fun chat.

I first met Dr. Katherine Trebeck in April at the ProspER Northern Rivers Forum, which was the first step in creating a regional economic and environment plan to support the region’s flood recovery, wellbeing and regeneration through to 2040.

Katherine’s presentation had me hooked from the get-go, and I knew I was listening to a key figure in modern Australia’s quest to not just remain relevant through the volatility of the 21st Century, but to understand what our economy is designed to, and who it is actually working for.

She has quickly become one of my go-to people to chew through knotty ideas with and, is the co-founder of the Wellbeing Economy Alliance (WEAll) and WEAll Scotland, instigated the Wellbeing Economy Governments partnership (WEGo) and is responsible for me now supporting the excellent team at WEAll Australia.

I’m thrilled to have her join us on Honey Drops, following the release of her latest paper with Jolee Wakefield: “The economy we could have: The economy of today, the divides it creates, and the alternatives”, which continues her work in shaping global conversations on designing economies that serve people and planet.

Katherine’s influential publications include her book with Jeremy Williams, “The Economics of Arrival: Ideas for a Grown Up Economy” and landmark reports on children’s wellbeing budgeting and the economic imperatives of doing so.

Enjoy!

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Welcome to the 39th edition of Honey Drops, in which we’re going back to school. Specifically, the classroom: to answer students’ questions, every day, on a whole range of curly topics that rarely have a straight answer.

I’m fascinated by the intersection of education and climate. Not only at the student level, but also the lessons that we can learn about human psychology, learning styles and empowering the right people to make the best decisions.

The fact that many Gen Xs and Millennials are still asking ‘But what can I do about climate?’ shows how quickly things have flipped for the action-oriented Gen Zs.

Companies still seem surprised when younger customers either demand more of them or demographic-based sales take a dip, without thinking about the societal factors shaping young thinkers during their schooling.

Thankfully, I had the chance to sit down with a teacher and discuss the evolution of climate in the classroom over the past decade. We started our conversation chatting about what it was like pre-COVID: it’s easy to forget through the haze of the past five years the genuine groundswell of action School Strike 4 Climate brought to the fore.

Memorably, the movement was boosted by the publicity former Prime Minister Scott Morrison provided in 2018 when stating in Parliament that he wanted “more learning in schools and less activism in schools,” perhaps missing the irony of the learning having led to the activism.

Although, in his defence, he may have already had plans on also becoming Minister for the Environment by that stage.

To put the importance of those marches in perspective, the students involved in 2018 as 11 year olds are now 18, in the workforce, using their purchasing power and not particularly thrilled with the direction we’re heading in. The ones finishing high school at the time are well into their careers.

What I appreciated about this conversation, was the acknowledgement of not only where the positive engagements have been, but also the gaps we still need to strengthen. From the curriculum to how business leaders can lead by engaging with their local schools, there’s a real pragmatic optimism that comes through.

And I challenge anyone to speak so fondly about being publicly called out by an 8 year old in front of a full classroom. Right up there with going into a high-stakes meeting.

As always, enjoy!

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It also marks a year since the first Honey Drops edition. Thank you for your support, feedback questions and sharing with you network. It’s been a real joy to see the community grow.

Many have holidayed in Byron Bay, swung past Nimbin on a youthful roadtrip or watched Lismore time and again as the epicentre of ‘1-in-1000-year’ floods. This is how each town has evolved.

The Northern Rivers is a microcosm of global climate change. Its natural beauty is known around the world, the hinterland’s proximity to the beaches a rare occurrence anywhere on the planet. So, too, is the ferocity and frequency of its natural disasters.

It’s this dichotomy we can lean on as we enter the crunch time for climate action at a societal, industrial and individual level.

A Land of History

Human environmental practices on this land throughout history has tracked ahead of the global curve. Stewarded by the many clans of the Bundjalung Nation for over 12,000 years, the first 21 farming licences were awarded under the Crown Lands Act for settlers along the Richmond River in the 1840s, what we now know as the town of Lismore. Each licensee agreed to fell and sell the trees from their parcel of land as highly-sought after timber, achieving the two-birds-with-one-stone trick of converting this newly cleared landscape into grazing paddocks for cattle and dairy production. This was the basis for the first of many commercial booms for the region.

Once the easy-to-reach trees along the river banks had been cut down, attention turned to the Big Scrub, which resulted in 20 million years of rainforest bring reduced to 1% of its size in 60 years:

Possum Shoot, McLeods Shoot, Coopers Shoot. Each were given their name due to their steep gravitational paths allowing logged trees to be pushed down to the valley floors, transferred along the newly-formed roads and onto the Northern Rivers Steamship Company’s boats to the manufacturing hubs of the Pacific.

The Age of Aquarius

Fast-forward to May 1973, Nimbin was a sleepy town in the hills left behind by the once-booming local dairy industry deciding to concentrate operations in Lismore. That was until the Age of Aquarius festival came to town, 52 years ago this year. As the first-known event in Australia to request permission from traditional owners to use their land, the festival transformed Nimbin and the wider Northern Rivers, becoming a strong magnet for those wanting more than life offered in the ‘Big Smoke’:

“Unlike the first Aquarius festival held in Canberra, this was a festival of creation, creativity and anti-consumerism, the focus was on creating culture rather than consuming it. It did not promote well known artists and did not advertise through mainstream media. Instead it relied on word of mouth for its promotion”.

”I also discovered that the attendees were unified by their passion for environmental conservation, sustainability, harmony, freedom, and honesty.” - Gary Opit, The Echo

A Land of Disasters

Unfortunately, this magnetic attraction has had a perverse side. A region populated by many who have worried about, cared for and committed their time to preserving the environment is also on the front lines of natural disasters, escalating in their severity: the Lismore floods in 1974, 2017 and 2022, bushfires in 2019/2020, and even Tropical Cyclones Debbie and Oma (in 2017 and 2019, respectively).

The devastation brought by these disasters has been widely-experienced, from Murwillumbah to Mullumbimby, Lismore to Casino, Coraki to Ballina. And yet, the results have not just been the resilience, mitigation and adaption embedded at a local level, but the lessons and guidance now being shared with the rest of the country, as more councils look for guidance in the face of increasing climate threats.

A Case For Optimism

In fact, the collaborative regeneration of 600 hectares of the once-cleared rainforest by the Big Scrub Rainforest Conservancy (formerly Big Scrub Landcare) along with current landowners is just one example of the power we have to positively impact the planet at the individual level.

Scotsman Patrick Geddes coined the term ‘Think Global, Act Local’ in the early 1900s, and a century later, it’s continues to provide the framework we require to navigate the coming decades. The patchwork quilt created when each of these individual efforts are combined allows the global picture to emerge as one of justifiable optimism, despite the ever-present headwinds.

At the recent global summit for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the UK’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Miliband, stated he has seen over the past five years that, for the first time, global “economics and ethics have become one”. That is to say, the once-diametrically opposed forces of Finance and Environment are now NSYNC.

This is why 2025 will be the inflection point for climate integration into society at the Government, Commercial and Individual level.

1. Government: Mandatory Climate Reporting is Here

Climate risk is now recognised as financial risk by governments, investors and insurance companies. As such, access to accurate climate risk data is now critical for Australia to be compliant under the unilateral Paris Agreement target of restricting global temperatures from warming more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as much as possible.

From this week (1st Jan), the largest 6,000 companies in Australia and their supply chains are now required to provide mandatory climate reporting to the Federal government, stating the risks and opportunities the changing climate will have on their business operations.

These businesses are now legally obligated to quantify the emissions created as a result of their operational activities and explain how they’re evolving their business practices to proactively reduce their impact on the planet. These disclosures require the same rigorous audit process their Boards currently sign off for financial reporting, coupled with similar fines, penalties and jail terms for non-compliance.

2. Commercial: Local B Corps in a Global Picture

Beyond companies now needing to be compliant with regulatory reporting, there are companies who already combine profit with purpose across the environment, workers, employees, community and internal governance structures. B Corps are role modelling many of the actions businesses across all industries will need to implement to maintain their competitive advantages over the coming years.

Well ahead of the curve, these businesses have identified the need to provide consumers and businesses the opportunity to ‘do good while doing well’. There are now more than 6,000 around the world, including 750 in Australia and New Zealand.

We’re lucky to have many B Corps in the Northern Rivers, ranging from SPELL, Flow Hive, Summerland Bank, Cape Byron Distillery & Brookies, Quiip, Cool Planet, Stone & Wood, Verdecon, Underwear for Humanity, Owners Collective and many, many more. I’ve linked to each of their Sustainability and B Corp pages above so you can see the work they’re doing, and that how and where you spend your money does, in fact, matter.

3. Employee Engagement: It’s The Economy, Stupid

A 2023 employee engagement survey conducted by Deloitte illustrated that of ~23,000 employees, “55% of respondents reporting that they research brands’ environmental impact and policies before accepting a job, and more than 40% reporting that they already have, or plan to, change jobs due to climate concerns.”‘

Another B Corp, Culture Amp, has also quantified the importance of a company being genuinely committed to climate action, rather than having an undefined strategy to reach net zero emissions by 2050:

These two studies prove that employees having a sense of purpose isn’t just for the privileged few. It lifts productivity levels, strengthens staff retention and candidate attraction, while increasing annual revenues and generating larger profits than traditional work cultures tied to the ‘bottom-line at all costs’ mentality AKA the business model responsible for the current situation we’re in.

2025: The Year For Action

While there’s clearly still much to be done on such a large scale, and multiple fronts of opposition to navigate, the conversations at the policy and corporate levels have shifted considerably since this, just before the 2019 bushfires:

As the new arrivals to Nimbin foresaw the current climate degradation 50 years before it happened, by standing on their shoulders our generation finds ourselves in a position to not only see the green shoots starting to peak through, but cultivate them into our future successes.

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I’ll get into the projections in a sec, but as you sit with these seven key systems for a moment, remember two things:

1. We’ve already had a quantifiable increase in natural disasters over the past decade, particularly for extreme heat, fires and heavy rainfall leading to floods;

2. Climate risk is financial risk: The Insurance Council of Australia has stated that the impact of extreme weather on the Australian economy has more than tripled over the last three decades. And the average annual cost of extreme weather claims has more than doubled to $4.5 billion each year over the last five years, largely due to the rising cost of floods.

So that’s where we are.

Here are the increased levels of risk we have to look forward to if we don’t transition the business community to a decarbonised economy:

This national assessment was conducted by the Australian Climate Service (ACS), a partnership that includes the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia. It’s the first-of-its-kind in Australia, synthesising previously unconnected data to offer insights on how climate risk will impact different sectors and regions across the country.

This is the same report the AFR wrote about just last month under the headline ‘Labor keeps ‘dire’ climate report under wraps’:

Under wraps no longer, it’s one hell of a document. One that your Board and Exec team should become familiar with as soon as possible. Some may dismiss it as mere forecasts, others may not be ready to face the financial and emotional implications and consequences it lays out. Nor to see their own professional mortality looking back at them.

But the true leaders will become fluent in the commercial risks and opportunities it presents their organisation, comprehending the position of responsibility they have risen to.

And the future leaders within your ranks, those on the heavily-invested-in programmes designed to identify and retain to ensure competitive advantage, will most certainly be thinking about the baton they will be picking up as the proverbial hits the fan, evaluating just how far in front or behind your organisation is going to be. #employeeengagement

The report uses a risk-based approach consistent with international best practices from countries like the UK, Canada, and Japan. It defines risk as the dynamic interaction between:

• Hazard

• Exposure

• Vulnerability

• Response

The result is a map of the most significant climate-related threats to Australia’s way of life.

This is a quick summary, however you can find both the overview and the full report here, under Reports and Publications.

First up: the killer line

“In the future, more communities will be above today’s national average hazard proneness. This suggests that normal combined hazard conditions in the future will resemble the extremes of today.”

In the past few years, I’ve dealt with the second- and third-order impacts of floods and a tropical cyclone. I’d prefer neither to become ‘normal’.

High Temperatures and Heatwaves

Extreme temperatures are likely to increase nationwide, with severe heatwave events projected to more than quadruple under 3.0°C of warming.

Bushfires

Higher temperatures and drier conditions will increase the risk of bushfires in most bushland areas, with dangerous fire weather days becoming more frequent in southern and eastern Australia.

Drought

Time spent in drought is likely to increase across most of the country, especially in southern and eastern areas.

Coastal Hazards

Sea levels around Australia will continue to rise. By 2090, coastal flood events are projected to become more frequent, and coastal erosion events may occur 10 times more often than they do now.

Tropical Cyclones

The frequency of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease, but a greater proportion of them will be severe (category 4 or 5).

Ocean Warming

Oceans around Australia are expected to become warmer and more acidic, leading to more frequent and longer marine heatwaves, leading to significant negative impacts on the fishing and tourism industries.

Admittedly, not very uplifting for your Tuesday commute, but these are the risks, not the pre-determined outcomes. Often in Sustainability, we have to live with one foot in the present and the other in the future.

I’d suggest today you put both feet in the future, bring your execs on the journey with you and suggest some time discussing the climate scenario analysis.

Externalise for leverage by using the PM, the Federal Government, the Insurance Council of Australia, the Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC) and a number of the top voices on LinkedIn to embody the business case for action.

One company won’t make all the difference, just like one company isn’t solely responsible for the situation we are in. However, companies do shift industries, industries do shift the economy, and a strong, well-balanced and healthy economy results in greater social cohesion.

Simple.

Until next week,
Dan

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Coming to you today from blue skies and sunshine - how good is Spring? Forward this on to someone who could do with a drop of honey to kickstart the longer days ahead.

Three Thoughts From Me

Turning Sustainability Into A Strategic Advantage

The week of the 18th started with joining Sydney Straver from &BLOOM Sustainability and Alex Horton from econome to run a masterclass for those companies (Group 2 and Group 3, in mandatory climate reporting parlance) who sit in the supply chains of Australia‘s largest organisations (Group 1s).

Following an excellent Acknowledgement of Country by Diksha Duggal, Sydney kicked things off for the day with a deep dive into Corporate Governance and Strategy, as well as the shifting expectations of investors when evaluating which companies to invest in.

Alex then hosted a panel with Mike Suffield from Westpac, Jessica Zickar from ICC Sydney and Afonso Firmo from NetNada, who Honey Droppers know from our interview in the 28th edition: ‘So, What’s Everyone Seeing?’. It was an excellent discussion, filled with successes, challenges and a consistent refrain: ‘start now, because it is going to take longer than you think’. There will come a point in the not-too-distant future where this work is urgently required by a key stakeholder and you want to be prepared for that moment, not having to react. (Kind of like homework?)

I then closed things out with the power of external strategic partnerships to support you on this transformation. Whether you’re an Exec or Non-Executive Director who currently has no Sustainability function, or the Sustainability team has no capacity for an urgent deliverable, or you want to strategically utilise an ongoing hybrid model to stay on top of best practices, I illustrated how there is an Ocelli partner to support you stay on top of your fiduciary and commercial duties.

We were thrilled that one of the audience questions during the Q&A was ”When is the next one?”. Will keep you posted.

A big thanks to everyone involved and here’s some pics!

SEVENTEENx Brisbane

The second stop of the week was in Brisbane on Wednesday at QUT’s ROOM THREE SIXTY, which certainly lived up to it’s name. Mick Hase hosted another outstanding SEVENTEENx, where the audience listened to the impactful journeys of Cori Moran from Cisco, Dominiqe Bird about building Civik, Global Sustainability Advisor Heidi Hauf, and myself.

Cori shared her personal and professional impact throughout two decades at Cisco, including meeting the great man himself, Sir David Attenborough, via Cisco’s global partnership with WWF she was involved in. She also spoke about Cisco’s $100m Regeneration Fund (!!), with $50m for climate and social impact not-for-profit grants, and $50m for climatetech startups and venture funds.

Dominiqe is an outstanding social entrepreneur, a man with many talents and just as many hats, who launched a construction social enterprise called Civik, that has grown to $1m annual revenue, has employed many people across Cairns and played a pivtol role in connected Far North Queensland to the NBN network. A true force of nature.

Heidi took us through Sustainable Aviation Fuels, also known as SAFs, based on her years as Boeing’s Chief Sustainability Officer. It was a clear-eyed yet compelling overview of the many opportunities for Australia to become a leading provider of SAFs, as well as the physical and resource challenges the industry faces in order to deliver it. I also appreciated Heidi’s reminder of the important role aviation plays for humanity, whether that be connecting families around the world, delivering medical and health supplies, or supporting international trade through commercial import/export markets. It’s one of the things I love about Sustainability - so many wicked problems!

And I had the pleasure of speaking from a macroeconomic position, specifically why the the Circular Flow Diagram from ECON101 is no longer fit for purpose in today’s climate. Rather we need to be incorporating the Planetary Boundaries (below) by ensuring society and the natural resources that $44 trillion dollars of the global economy relies on are not only protected, but also regenerated.

I also spoke about being at the forefront of the Participation Trophy movement in the late 90s, but I’ll let you watch the recording when it’s available in a couple of weeks to see why that’s important to Australia’s current business community.

Testimonials

Some more testimonials have come in for Ocelli over the past couple of weeks, which always put a smile on my dial.

Especially as they are both from Honey Droppers:

“Dan has been an exceptional partner, providing support in identifying and connecting us with collaborators tailored to our unique sustainability needs. His warm introductions and insightful guidance have played a pivotal role in expanding our network of aligned and capable partners. I wholeheartedly recommend Dan and The Ocelli Group to any sustainability leader seeking thoughtful, strategic support in building meaningful partnerships.”

- Siobhan McCarthy, Sustainability Lead, Strategy and Performance, Murdoch University

“Always armed with considered questions, Dan has a way of swiftly deciphering your business needs & gaps. He made connections and recommendations for a solution, which alleviated an ongoing headache and solved one of those big 'back-burner' issues.”

- Alison Michalk, CEO, Quiip

No matter what issue has you stumped, we’re ready to connect you with the right expertise to orchestrate your transition and transform your value chain. Shoot me a message and we can have chat.

Two Quotes From Others

“The new global economy is rising, powered by clean energy and green industry… Prime Minister Albanese now has the chance to show the Pacific and the world that Australia is ready to lead at Cop31 and beyond.”

Christiana Figueres, ‘Former UN climate chief urges Australia to set ‘prosperity’ target of cutting emissions by 75% by 2035’

“We cannot do it the way our fathers did.”

Stellios Boutaris, winemaker in Northern Greece, ‘Farmers across Europe struggle to adapt to the climate crisis’

One Thing For You To Ponder

So, the reason I have taken a few weeks off Honey Drops is after giving four different presentations in 13 days, I hit a wall. I was drained, I was knackered. And it was a good reminder, that the best thing you can do for your own sustainability is to listen to your body and take a break.

I’m back to my usual energy, excited for the rest of the year, but also thankful for the rest. And a good reminder that the sky won’t fall in if you need to take some time off.

This is absolutely a marathon, not a sprint. We operate in a space where this is often a difficult balance: we know what the scenario analyses and projections say, yet we still find ourselves in conversations with holders of purse strings about whether this is really a priority for this quarter.

Stay healthy and look after yourself so that you can be here for the long haul.

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Welcome to the 35th edition of Honey Drops, where we are (hopefully) on the road to COP31 in Adelaide, November 2026 (if the negotiations with Turkey go to plan).

Share this with anyone you know who has been wondering “But what can I do?”, “Is COP even a big deal?”, or “Isn’t ESG dead?”

Lots. Yep. Nope.

Today’s interview is a result of the article, “Australia’s 18-Month Window: Becoming the World’s Most Influential Middle Power”. It was published by Luke Heilbuth, the CEO of BWD Strategic, and a writer I have followed for quite some time. He has also previously written speeches for the Australian Prime Minister, provided oversight for Cabinet processes on foreign policy and coordinated briefings for the Prime Minister’s engagements with President Obama and other world leaders.

Fortunately, through a twist of fate during breakfast at Room 10, he is someone I was subsequently introduced to by the great man, Richard Powell.

The above piece appeared as Luke’s weekly Sustainability Snapshot newsletter just a few weeks after our initial meeting. And as you will hear in our conversation, it immediately hit me as an inspiring call to arms for Australia to maximise this unprecedented window of opportunity during the current global tumult.

This chat can be seen as a sequel to the interview with Rade Musulin in the 33rd edition of Honey Drops, Geopolitics in 2025, tying in the historic geopolitical forces at play with Australia’s strong hand of cards due to our geography, resources and Superannuation.

In fact, Luke believes the $4.13 trillion dollars in the Super system is especially what sets Australia up to be a major player in the 21st century:

“Despite making up just 0.4% of the world’s population, we’ve built the world’s fourth-largest pension system. It’s growing twice as fast as its peers and could surpass $13.5 trillion by 2045, overtaking Japan and Britain.”

Seriously.

However, this national success is wholly-dependant on IF we get the next 18 months right. And COP31 plays an enormous role in this.

I’d encourage you to read more of Luke’s insights on his Substack, Second Thoughts.

And in the spirit of his article, let’s take control of our future instead of having to react to one shaped by other nations.

Listen in, and as always, I’d love to hear your thoughts and ideas.

Enjoy,
Dan

The world is spinning faster, the competition to decarbonise is heating up and the economic winners and losers of the 2030s will be decided over the next five years.

So when I say “ICJ”, you say “Yay!”

Three Things From Me:

Green Fix Season 2 Has Landed

Loreto and I are excited to announce the new season of everyone’s favourite Sustainability podcast, the Green Fix.

We’ve got a new look and still the same commitment to being your hub for all things sustainability.

In this season, we’re interviewing your favourite climate storytellers, inspiring sustainability trailblazers and business leaders putting sustainability at the heart of their strategy. We also have a very special surprise for the second half of the season with one of our most popular guests from Season 1 - stay tuned.

Our first guest for the new season is none other than Dan Ilic: comedian, committed climate activist, multi-hyphenate conference MC, and creator of the long-running, multi-award winning podcast A Rational Fear since the way, way back of 2012.

Fun fact: Dan was originally inspired to action by filmmaker Liz Courtney, who we had the absolute pleasure of interviewing in Season 1.

Check out our chat with Dan below, which comes with our very first Explicit Content warning:

SEVENTEENx Brisbane: 20th August

I’ve often written within Honey Drops of my love of SEVENTEENx and the impact attending the Sydney 2022 event had on me. My career, for sure, but more importantly, the realisation that there were many, many people who also believe in business being a force multiplier for positive impact.

Well, you wouldn’t believe it: Mick Hase called me up a few weeks ago and asked me to be a first-time SEVENTEENx speaker for the Brisbane event this year.

For those who haven’t attended a SEVENTEENx event yet, it’s a TEDx style event, themed around the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, sustainability and business.

Lots of fun + awesome people = hugely inspiring.

I’m joined by an absolute stellar group of leaders in their field:

Dominiqe Bird: Co-Founder of Civik and Social Enterprise Regular
Heidi Hauf: Global Sustainability Advisor
Gemma Alker: Director Innovation Central Brisbane

Get your tickets now: Early Bird pricing finishes tomorrow!

‘It’s Always Darkest Before The Dawn’

UN secretary general, António Guterres, must be a fan of Florence + The Machine, channelling ‘Shake It Out’ during his speech at last week’s High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development at the UN headquarters in NYC:

”We are on the cusp of a new era. Fossil fuels are running out of road. The sun is rising on a clean energy age.”

Some quick stats he shared from the International Renewable Energy Agency:

• 90% of renewable power projects are now cheaper than fossil fuels

• Solar power is about 41% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel alternative

• Onshore wind generation is less than half the price of fossil fuels

• Investment in the Renewables sector reached $2tn last year

• This was $800bn more than went into fossil fuels, and an increase of 70% over the last decade

Most importantly, he focused most of his speech on what each country is currently evaluating - the strength of their national security based on their sovereign energy security:

“The greatest threat to energy security today is fossil fuels. They leave economies and people at the mercy of price shocks, supply disruptions and geopolitical turmoil,” he said. “There are no price spikes for sunlight. No embargos on wind.”

Two Quotes From Others:

Barnaby Wades Back Into The Warm Waters of Net Zero

“One Liberal likened Joyce to somebody who pulled the pin from a hand grenade, but threw the pin at the enemy while dropping the grenade on the floor of the trench.”

- Phil Coorey in the AFR this morning, ‘Government willing to help Joyce blow up Coalition over net zero’

‘Australia, Your Future Is In Your Hands’ - The UN

"This is the moment to get behind a climate plan that doesn't just write that vision into policy — but delivers in spades for your people. So don't settle for what's easy. Bog standard is beneath you. Go for what's smart by going big.

"Go for what will build lasting wealth and national security. Go for what will change the game and stand the test of time."

- Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

One Thing For You To Ponder:

Leading is one of my go-to podcasts each week, helmed by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, two titans of UK politics. They interview past and present leaders from around the world about their time in office, how they have navigated their many challenges and their insights on current events.

It was fantastic to see Emma Pinchbeck’s name appear on episode 142 to discuss the UK’s energy policy, security and long-term strategy. Emma is the CEO of the Climate Change Committee and former CEO of Energy UK, making this well worth a listen.

Here’s just a snippet of the economic argument many of us make each day:

“I think that based on 10 years working in the energy sector, I am pretty confident we are in the middle of the kind of energy transition that we last experienced during the turn of the Industrial Revolution. I cannot tell you how exciting, terrifying, fast the change in technologies were happening away from fossil fuels towards electrification. And this isn’t a Climate Change Committee view - though we have cheaper electricity in our modelling - it’s an energy sector view.

”I cannot understand why any economy looking to grow, where energy is such a key input to everything else you are trying to do - particularly after an energy crisis caused by volatile gas - would not be trying to make electricity as cheap as possible and taking advantage of the fact that we can have renewables and then we can give them to people to use in their homes and electrify technologies as quickly as possible.

“It’s a frustrated industrialist’s view as much as it is a climate change view, that one.”

Until next week,

Dan