Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And in case you miss hearing me break fights down in audio format, I’ll be covering the great Sean Zerillo over on Action Network’s YouTube channel for the next few weeks along my man Billy Ward and will link it here after it publishes (which is usually Friday mornings).

UFC Shanghai main event: Nurmagomedov vs. Yadong

Main event thoughts:

The main event for UFC Shanghai features a showdown between ranked bantamweights, Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong.

As per usual, I wrote more in-depth about this fight in my weekly write-ups via MMAJunkie.com (which I’ll link here once it finally drops).

But for the sake of brevity, I basically went with the heavy favorite in Nurmagomedov due to Song’s propensity to get lost in the sauce when fights extend on the feet or exchanges extend on the floor.

On the feet, Song, for all his improvements, can’t help but fall back into his headhunting and fencing sensibilities. And despite having solid first-layer wrestling defense and athletic scrambles, Song has a tendency for back exposure that will likely give his Dagestani foe control and submission opps galore.

I honestly wouldn’t mind being wrong about Song here, but the pick is for Nurmagomedov to win a fairly competitive but clear decision on the cards. I played the Over 4.5 rounds in a parlay and threw Nurmagomedov by sub in my round robin as a potential hedge.

UFC Shanghai co-main event: Xiaonan vs. Gomes

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event in China features a ranked strawweight showdown between Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes.

I wrote about this fight more in-depth for my feature this week with Action Network (which I’ll do my best to link here once it drops this morning), so I’ll also try and keep things short here.

Akin to the Chinese fighter in the main event, Yan is also a product whom you can forecast fairly easily from a win-loss perspective considering that she tends to both win and lose against particular types of opponents. And outside of a controversial split-decision loss to Marina Rodriguez years ago, it’s championship-level grappling specialists that serve as Yan’s stylistic kryptonite.

Thankfully for Yan, that’s not who Gomes is.

Gomes has been a profitable overachiever for her backers thus far, but the Brazilian’s super suspect fight IQ and limited, one-sided offense makes me think that she’ll struggle once she starts to face the upper echelon of the division. Say what you will about Yan’s age, but she’s undeniably a big step up for Gomes (who feels like one of MMA gambling twitter’s darlings this week given the traditional fades that both older fighters and Asian fighters alike seem to attract, but I digress).

Still, it must be noted that a majority of Gomes’ recent wins come against obviously aged-out women, so Yan showing up as a former shell of herself like my girl Tecia Pennington did is sadly on the table.

I give out some betting angles on both sides of the equation in my Action Network article and talk more about the details that erk me about Gomes’ game in the podcast I did with Billy Ward that will be linked above, but I’m ultimately picking a side and riding with Yan in what I believe could look like the buy-low spot of the night if this thing plays out right.

I thought about incorporating a fight goes to split into my round robin, but with my house following it’s shitty trend of taking WMMA splits off their board, that thought didn’t last long as it’s just a straight play here.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

There’s not a ton of underdogs I feel comfortable putting any real money on this week, but Jack Jenkins is definitely the dog I feel best about.

Obvious Aussie swagger aside, Jenkins presents a hard-hitting, leg kicking threat to a fighter with long legs and suspect durability like Woodson.

Moreover, Woodson fits the bill for one of my favorite canaries in the MMA coal mine – which are long and lanky fighters who continue to make massive cuts down to the lower weight classes as they age into their thirties.

Whether we’re talking about Corey Hill’s shin snap, Andre Ewell’s diminishing cardio/staying power, or the outright durability of top-level talents like Brandon Royval and Sean O’Malley, there’s a similar theme to the freak injuries and diminished capabilities in this category.

Unfortunately for Jenkins, he has his own history with health issues given the broken arms and hands he’s suffered both in-fight and pre-fight alike. For that reason, I incorporated “fight ends by KO” into my Trixie Cycle as a potential hedge or (hopefully) an added bonus.

Woodson’s semi-surprising decision ratio is probably putting a little more value on finish angles here, as I suspect this is violence either way from a stylistic perspective.

Another underdog I officially picked is one of MMA gambling twitter’s most disrespected fighters, Alex Perez.

Instead of god forbid sympathizing with a hard-working fighter who easily has the worst luck in this space or division since the days of Ian McCall, gamblers and pundits alike continue to disrespect and diminish the skills and efforts of Perez. And though the direction of the fight was admittedly turning in the favor of Sumudaerji the first time these two met, I still have a hard time swallowing what feels like an arguable over-correction of the proverbial steering wheel.

Don’t get me wrong: Sumudaerji is the rightful favorite all things considered, as it’s also nice to see the “Tibetan Eagle” finally start to get some acknowledgement for his improvements (as I felt like I was on an island for like a three-fight stretch there praising this guy).

I just ultimately feel like this fight is too volatile for me to seriously touch.

Now, I did throw Perez into my round robin to help fill a leg and give me some low-risk exposure on what is ultimately a perennially live dog (kinda like I did with another untrustworthy dog in Kenny Nunchucks last week). The Nunchuks flier was an obvious dud, but the round robin paid out big last week otherwise so let’s see what we can scoop up here.

Also making my round robin and official pick categories alike is Namsrai Batbayar.

Aside from this being more of a fade of the super untrustworthy Andre Lima, Batbayar is a fun action fighter who has some key attributes and intangibles that could serve him well in this fight.

Although Batbayar’s aggression could open him up some of the more savvy looks and counters that Lima has shown glimpses of, the Mongolian’s power and more consistent output could cow an already inconsistent Lima into negative positions and scoring deficits alike. And in a matchup with two solid strikers with power and savvy on each side, sometimes the result ends up being lower-output affairs that get extended off respect.

Should that happen, then give me the home crowd favorite fighter who has more eye-catching offense and output to boot (especially for the price tags attached as +650 for Batbayar to be the winner if this goes to the cards is just too high a number to pass up).

Lastly but not leastly is a similar underdog angle and approach with Jingnan Xiong.

Between a subpar promotional debut and her age and inactivity, you’re probably going to have to look far and wide for any real support for Xiong amongst bettors this weekend. But aside from my belief that age isn’t necessarily the same death sentence in women’s divisions, I also believe that fighters coming off a layoffs like Xiong’s tend to have better showings in their sophomore UFC appearances.

Moreover, Polastri, for as fun as she can be, is proving to be a fighter that is overvalued and untrustworthy in extended fights (in spite of her round-three rallying propensities). But like I said last time when I was on an island fading Polastri with Talita Alencar, ‘sexy’ strawweight propsects who date their head coaches and fall short in key fights is a tale as old as time.

Xiong is not the type of fighter to take advantage of Polastri’s grappling shortcomings, but she is the hometown fighter who I give a solid power and experience edge to. And if its minus 3-1 odds for this fight to go to decision but plus 3-1 odds for Xiong to win said decision (despite having a positive record in three and five-round affairs alike as opposed to the spotty .500 decision record that Polastri is sporting), then I can’t help but grab some of that exposure on those number abnormalities that favor the hometown fighter.

Both ladies did miss weight, but I’m willing to bet that the Chinese fighter knows how to properly recover better at home than the Brazilian fighter does on the road (in Shanghai of all places… a place where I’ve had wild experiences in my martial arts days that range from food poisoning to being chased around the city by a butcher-knife wielding maniac, but I digress).

Southpaw stats for UFC Shanghai:

• Alex Perez, who rematches Sumudaerji, is officially 0-1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Jospeh Benavidez in a fight with a an uncredited head clash and suffering a no contest against Su last time due to absorbing an illegal strike).

• Kevin Borjas, who faces Rei Tsuruya, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Sumudaerji).

• Nilson Rojas, who faces Bilal Hasan, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Long Xiao, who faces Francesco Nuzzi, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing a contentious split decision to Chang Ho Lee).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• UMAR

• Yan

• Asakura

• Perez

• Ce

• Hasan

• Batbayar

• Tsuruya

• Jenkins

• LONG XIAO

• Lui

• Xiong

• Meng

Plays:

• Parlay: Asakura-Aoriqileng U 2.5, Umar-Song O 4.5 = +115 (1-U)

• SGP: Asakura/U 1.5 = +110 (1-U)

• Yan -146 (1.46-U)

• Xiong 3.5 pts -135 (1.35-U)

• Jenkins +130 (1-U)

• Tsuruya-Borjas U 2.5 -148 (1.48-U)

• Tsuruya sub +135 (1-U)

• Hasan rd 2 +340 (.3-U), rd 3 +600 (.2-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Xiong dec +325, Jenkins-Woodson ends KO +175, Tsuruya sub +100 = +2238 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Xiong dec +325, Batbayar dec +650, Hasan-Rojas ends rd 2 +275, Alex Perez +185, Umar sub +350 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +153198)

BETTING NOTES: I explained a lot of my reasonings and cross-coverage angles in the sections above, so I strongly suggest you give those a quick read if you skipped. But as far as alternate round robins for houses that don’t offer “fight ends in round 2” props go, I’ll likely just make the simple pivot and take Hasan straight up in round 2 for a slightly better price. *EDIT (8/28): I ended up with another alternate (untracked) round robin that I also like/you might like better: Basically same as the official except I took Su-Perez ends sub instead of Perez ML and swapped Tsuruya sub with Xiong dec. Last week’s round robin, aside from producing nearly 37 Units off a 3/5 leg hit, was a PERFECT example of the cross coverage I both preach about and strive for when building my betting slates, so let’s see what I can pick up this week. Good luck with whatever you end up on.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

In case you miss hearing me podcast, I have the privilege to be invited onto two people’s podcasts this week to breakdown this card.

I did a show focusing more in-depth on a few key matchups with my dudes VB Picks and Ramon:

And I did an early week show with my man Clint from Die Hard MMA covering the whole card from top to bottom here (though some of my takes may have milded or adjusted since more tape study to be sure to check my takes/picks below!):

UFC Sacramento main event: Hernandez vs. Hobocop

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Sac Town features some classic middleweight parody with a matchup between Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues.

Affectionately referred to as “HOBOCOP” by myself and many, Rodrigues packs heat in multiple ways.

Should Hobocop manage to follow the blueprint laid out by previous Hernandez opponents by selling out hard to the body, then this fight could be over faster than a date night that get’s crashed by Clarence Boddicker.

The potential problem, however, is that if Hobocop doesn’t get the finish early, then his already suspect output (due to his inability to throw strikes below an 8/10 power level), coupled with Hernandez’s patented breakneck pressure, could prove disastrous for the Brazilian.

More importantly, something I failed to mention in my in-depth breakdown over at MMAJunkie.com (that I, of course, always recommend you check to both get more detailed information and to support your boy) is that, when watching back Hobocop’s fights, I noticed that basically anyone who wanted to clinch him or push him to the cage was able to do so with not much resistance.

Don’t get me wrong: Hobocop has been able to maintain a solid takedown defense rate on paper and shows some of the solid wrestling fundamentals and first-layer defenses that expect from his background when watching his tape, but letting someone like Hernandez work in his preferred office space is not exactly the best idea in the world.

Hernandez may be an inferior athlete and wrestler on paper, but Northern California native is easily the most willing wrestler (and high-paced fighter) that Hobocop has had to face in the UFC.

So, unless he’s able to hurt Hernandez out of the gate with his best Sampson from “The Bone Temple” impersonation, then I suspect that Hernandez can survive the storms and pull away down the stretch.

My exposure on the Under 3.5 makes me a little nervous, but I have a hard time not seeing this fight being a stylistically violent affair as I could even see Hernandez being the one to finish things on the feet early considering Hobocop’s suspect off-switch on this chin, as well as his past upset losses opposite quick surprising shots (that I suspect will be extra potent if his circuits are being overloaded with expected takedown looks).

I have fight ends by KO as a potential bonus/hedge in my Trixie cycle and had to sprinkle on Hernandez’s mandatory round 2, 3 and 4 fliers (despite finishing Michel Pereira in rd 5 in a fight that was basically over in rd 2, but I digress). I will also look to be betting Hernandez live whether I’m up or in need of a push into profit margins.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

If you’re wondering why this section is next and not the co-main event it’s because the co-main event is a sloppy heavyweight affair.

And though Serghei Spivac is a live dog who I hope wins, I suspect that his streak of getting spooked and/or beaten by superior athletes continues against the untrustworthy Vitor Petrino.

Petrino by knockout or Spivac ITD are attractive props by degenerate standards on paper, but this could be a sneaky staring contest that sees counter jabs by Spivac vs. big swinging moments by the Brazilian. Nightmare fight to predict, much less have money on.

One underdog I did pick (and partially play if you count round robin exposure) is Kennedy Nzechukwu.

Affectionately referred to on the internet by The MMA Analysis podcast as the “Kenny Nunchucks,” Nzechukwu is also a difficult fighter to trust. But on the other hand, so is his opponent, the “BIG MEAL” Shamil Gaziev (shoutout to Chronic Combat Conversations for that nickname).

It’s hard not to be a fan of a guy built like Gaziev, but his face-first defense seems primed for a southpaw right hook from Nzechukwu. And though he’s the better grappler on paper, I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a hurt or gassed Gaziev shooting headfirst into his opponent’s underrated guillotine.

I was tempted to take a standard unit stab a favorite-turned-underdog in Nzechukwu, but instead figured why not save some unit exposure (pause) and throw his main win condition of inside the distance into my round round robin (see the logic there for those giving me shit on both my round robins and bets? but I digress).

I also believe that Stan Dorsainvil could be live off the tape I watched on him, but it’s ultimately hard to lay money on a short-notice debutant no matter how good or how of shape they may or may not be in. I ultimately picked the more proven product in Young (who is also betting on himself extra this fight by fighting out his UFC contract), but I still stand by what I said on the Die Hard MMA podcast earlier this week in regards to Dorsainvil +3.5 pts being the play I’d go with.

Lastly, but not leastly, is a fight that has now closed in at pick’em prices between Nasrat Haqparast and Chris Padilla.

*EDIT (8/21): After seeing Haqparast dip to +100 at one of my off-shore books, I had to fire as I’m a man of my word. Also, for as trepidatious as I am about my bad luck and horrid run, I’d argue that the MMA gambling space as a majority are the ones who should be cruising for a bruising with the blatant disregard of Haq and the easy-to-argue overhyping of Padilla, but we’ll see. I am the ultimate mush, after all.

[original write-up picks back up here']

Padilla was definitely the public dog of the week, but now I’m curious to see if the line will actually flip by fight time. I would still argue that Haqparast is now the value side in a buy-low sense at -115, and honestly would feel compelled to play him out of principle if he inches any closer to even odds.

Say what you will about his last performance or the kind scorecards that should’ve went against him, Haqparast has proven that he can beat more skilled and athletic pressure fighters like Esteban Ribovics. I also liked that Haqparast took the appropriate time one should from a devastating knockout defeat, as he’s at the perfect experience level to take decent breaks and still come back sharp.

Aside from Padilla’s lone UFC-level southpaw loss also being his lone knockout loss, I suspect that the American struggles against southpaw shot selections. Add in the fact that Haqparast (the more experienced and proven party) will have the larger octagon to play his out-fighting striking style, and I see Padilla’s patented clinch opportunities being fewer and far between.

Padilla rd 3/dec is a great bet if you like that side as I’ll want some rd 3 Padilla exposure in a round robin due to that being a traditionally tough round for Haqparast and a strong one for Padilla, but I’m ultimately sticking to my Haqparast pick and am very tempted to fire on his money line.

Southpaw stats for UFC Sacramento:

• Roman Dolidze, who faces Renier de Ridder, is officially 2-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Kyle Dukakis, Marvin Vettori; Losses: Marvin Vettori).

• Jiesla Chaves, who faces Carli Judice, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Shamil “The Big Meal” Gaziev, who faces Kennedy Nzechukwu, is officially 1-0 opposte UFC-level southpaws (beating Thomas “Jefferson” Peterson).

• Chris Padilla, who faces Nasrat Haqparast, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (getting TKO’d by Jason Gonzalez on the regional scene).

• Wes Schultz, who faces Jackson McVey, is technically 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws seeing how he has a win over McVey in the amateurs.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Hernandez

• Petrino

• RDR

• Jones

• Judice

• Wint

• Douglas

• Nzechukwu

• Haqparast

• Barbosa

• Young

• McVey

• Dyer

Plays:

• Parlay: Dyer, Douglas, Judice, Fluffy-Hobocop U 3.5 = +158 (1.5-U)

• RDR-Dolidze O 2.5 -135 (1.35-U)

• Jones rd 3/dec -105 (1.05-U)

• Dyer rd 3/dec +125 (1-U)

• Haqparast +100 (1-U)

• Hernandez rd 2 +650, rd 3 +800, rd 4 +1200 (.33-U each)

• Trixie cycle: McVey sub +400, Judice dec +100, Fluffy-Hobocop ends KO = +1700 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Dyer rd 3 +550, Padilla rd 3 +1400, Nunchuks ITD +175, Judice rd 3 +750, Jones-Mederos ends rd 2 +450 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +1253384)

*BETTING NOTES: Despite an epicly bad betting slate last week that basically had me done (as well as swatting off shit takes from betting bros abroad), I decided to cut back down to my usual average unit exposure which is less than half of what I put up last week. 4-leg parlays doesn’t exactly spell out a ‘smart bounce-back strategy,’ but this week has the classic trap setup of heavy chalk that we would be much more confident in hitting if only we didn’t see similar layouts crash and burn just the week prior. For that reason, I’m ignoring the fakeout from the MMA gods and pushing forward (while still having straight plays on 3/4 of the parlay legs that payback most of the parlay exposure with a single hit). I also layered potential hedges and bonuses with my round robin/Trixie/hot round selections, but I’m sure all this explanation will be all for not as most people don’t read this, don’t care, and will still hit me with contradictory advice when I inevitably still lose. Sigh. But as far as alternate round robins or go, I’ll likely forgo a Trixie over the counter given the lack of options I have over the counter, as I’ll instead slot McVey sub in for Jones-Mederos ends rd 2 and will likely just go Nunchuks ML instead the ITD that won’t be available at my local book. Good luck and you’re welcome for all the uncredited fades.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And for those who miss hearing me via podcast, I jumped on Action Network’s weekly MMA betting show with my guy Billy Ward that’s linked below!

UFC 330 main event: Makhachev vs. Garry

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Philly features a welterweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Garry.

Aside from the fact that Garry officially standing undefeated opposite UFC-level southpaws, I believe that there are more tricky stylistic intangibles than meet the eye.

Whether we’re talking about Garry’s insisted right whizzer matching up with Makhachev’s insistent left underhook or the challenger’s single-leg defense compared to the champion’s offense, I can’t wait to get more definitive information this weekend.

I really put a lot into this week’s in-depth main event breakdown article via MMAJunkie that I sincerely hope you check out (as it features full sets of clips and more there),

But one thing I didn’t cover there is the fact that I’m also sprinkling some exposure on Makhachev as well.

As I explain in the Action Network video linked atop this article, Makhachev’s D’arce and Kimura props are live as I believe that a submission win, in general, is a larger part of Makhachev’s win conditions than perhaps even his backers are giving credit for.

For that reason, I sprinkled small on those outcomes and will likely have Makhachev’s submission props in my round robin to help hedge my money line flier on the challenger.

UFC 330 co-main event: Dern vs. Robertson

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event on Paramount+ features, by technical definition, a title fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson.

Dern, who recently won a vacant belt after Zhang Weili went on hiatus from the division, is being set up with a similarly favorable matchup to her last one opposite Virna Hanjijoba.

And though I was willing to both pick and play Virna (aka HANJI JOBES), I don’t believe that Robertson can match Virna’s power or durability – as the latter is what worries me most here.

Robertson will should have an edge in the offensive wrestling and see her single-leg series having solid play against Dern’s traditionally poor defense. But unless Robertson can hurt Dern early, then I’m not sure I trust her to sustain control down the stretch against a superior athlete who is a proven dog that can dig deep in victory or defeat.

I broke this fight down more in-depth via my MMAJunkie breakdown (why the lack of sample size of fighters establishing top half on Dern was so key), but the pick is begrudgingly for Dern.

I feel like round 3 will be a hot round for both, as “fight ends round 3” may be a cheeky high-value flier leg for my round robin (with maybe Dern by sub for my alternate in houses that don’t offer cheeky props). I did take a flier on Dern by armbar as well considering the positions what Robertson gives in victory or defeat – and I’ll also will likely use Dern by sub if I add a Trixie Cycle.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Aside from the underdog that I’m stupidly siding with in the main event, Kaue Fernandes is one of the only other underdogs I officially picked at UFC 330 .

Despite being admittedly torn and probably doing more tape than necessary, I ended up officially siding with Fernandes over “Mr. Turner,” Jalin Turner. And though Fernandes is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws, the Brazilian has seen the stance plenty considering that he either faces stance-switchers or forces his opponents to switch due to the leg kicks that “The Lumberjack"“ lands.

As Jack Slack points out in the video above, Turner’s countering sensibilities translate fairly well when facing kicking threats. That said, Fernandes appears to have some counter-balancing checking punches to this kick that, coupled with his punch-and-clutch nature, could stymie Turner’s traditional attempts to counter and follow his foes out of the pocket.

Fernandes, who is a Nova Uniao product, has also looked good whenever operating in open-stance exchanges. Not only does Fernandes’ dynamic kicking tools translate seamlessly, but his punches arguably look more potent when striking opposite the southpaw stance.

I wrote about this fight more in my feature via Action Network that’s dropping on fight day, where I lay out why “fight starts round 2
” and “fight ends in KO” (shoutout to my colleague Billy Ward for that one) could also be live angles. That said, at current money line prices, I just ended up picking a side and riding.

*EDIT (8/15): Ugh… so good thing I had a Freudian slip in the picks section below because I feel like this was a classic ‘picking a dog just to pick a dog’ spot where I’m doing that thing where I over-correct the steering wheel against my Xtreme Couture bias as I ended up ultimately liking the Occam’s Razor outcome of this fight at bare minimum plus money for my Trixie Cycle (shoutout to Chronic Combat Conversation’s Guru Scouting MMA for the clarity). But again, as I stated below, this fight is not worth major exposure. Disregard the rest of this section lol.

Lastly but not leastly, I ended up picking Eric McConjugal to manifest his underdog sensibilities opposite Donte Johnson.

Although I can appreciate Johnson relocating to my backyard of Xtreme Couture MMA to train, it’s probably gonna take a whole lot more than one high-level camp to smooth out the rawness and jank in his game.

McConjugal may not jump off the page, but MMA LAB product is deceptively well-trained and presents a stymying southpaw style that can be a unique ask for someone as early in their career as Johnson.

I expect Johnson to come out hot and potentially find a finish, but I need to see more improvements to his skills and process before I can pick him comfortably to win. Outside of a finish method prop on either side here, this fight is probably not worth any major exposure.

Southpaw stats for UFC 330:

• Ian Garry, who faces Islam Makhachev, is officially 4-0 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Carlos Prates, Jordan Williams, Geoff Neal, Daniel Rodriguez).

• Kaue Fernandes, who faces Jalin Turner, is officially 0-0 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (but has both faced a fair amount of stance-switchers and forced plenty of stance switches due to his leg kicks).

• Donte Johnson, who faces Eric McConico, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

CFFC 159 Picks:

• Bobe

• Betancourt

• Bubalaidze

• Simons

• Lewis

• Delarosa

• Delgado

• Palmer

• Murodov

CFFC 159 Plays:

• Betancourt -125 (1.25-U)

• Palmer, Delarosa, Bobe = +169 (1-U)

• Pruden +600 (.4-U)

UFC 330 Picks:

• Garry

• Dern

• Fernandes

• Terrance Malik

• Ribovics

• Alvarez

• C. Johnson

• D. Johnson

• Fernando

• Brahimaj

• Oralboy

UFC 330 Plays:

• Luque-Gore DGTD, Ribovics KO +145 (1.5-U)

• Oralboy-Wells DGTD, Ribo-Barboza DGTD, Jalin-Kaue DGTD +138 (1.5-U)

• SGP: Brahimaj/U 2.5 +125 (1.5-U)

• Fernandes +125 (1.5-U)

• *Action Network play: Fernandes O 0.5 TDs +110 (1-U)

• Oralboy rd 1, 2 -130 (1.5-U)

• Alvarez ITD -150 (1.5-U)

• Garry +285 (1.5-U)

• Makhachev sub +250 (.5-U)

• Makhachev D’arce +550 (.33-U), Kimura/Americana +4000 (.17-U)

• Dern armbar +500 (.37-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Oralboy dec +220, D. Johnson KO +100, Dern sub +250 = +2140 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Brahimaj rd 1 +275, Alvarez sub +150, Fernandes KO +250, Dern-Robertson ends rd 3 +850, Makhachev sub +200 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .05-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +93415)

*BETTING NOTES: Alright… big slate, I know. But between the market move forcing my hand at another bet for my Action feature (which I suggest you check our for my reasoning on the prop) to the No. I found on Makhachev by sub, I ended up adding more. I also added a Trixie Cycle as an excuse to get some Oralboy decision equity into the mix given both my exposure on that fight not going the distance, as well as my usual luck with finding the fights that don’t finish when expected to. As far as atlernate round robins for houses that don’t offer cheeky props go, I ended up keeping in vanilla and doubling down on Dern by sub instead of the “fight ends in round 3” prop. Good luck with whatever you end up on!

Picks:

• Gamrot

• Ferreira

• Del Valle

• Thainara

• Miller

• Asplund

• Nurgozhay

• Sutherland

• Miranda

• Johns

• Miller

• Foro

Plays:

• Parlay: J. Miller, Asplund -110 (1.10-U)

• Parlay: T. Miller, Lemos-Thainara O 2.5 -105 (1.05-U)

• Miller-Goff U 2.5 -126 (1.26-U)

• Mirdanda 3.5 pts +120 (1-U)

• Miranda rd 2 +1400 (.17-U), rd 3 +2000 (.13-U)

• Asplund rd 2 KO +600 (.33-U), rd 3 KO +1000 (.17-U)

• Trixie cycle: Sousa-Miranda dec +110, Asplund KO +150, Gamrot-Salkilld ends sub +225 = +1606 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Miranda sub +1500, Asplund rd 2 +550, Miller KO +125, Lemos sub +1400, Quarantine rd 3 +1100 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +4211900)

*BETTING NOTES: Sorry for posting these after the first fight is already airing… went a little too hard last night for my birthday so hope you’ll forgive me for being late with these fades lol. Looking at Gamrot and Miranda live… good luck!

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC Belgrade main event: Medic vs. Rodriguez

Main even thoughts:

Apologies for being late this week, folks. It’s sadly been yet another crazy week as the universe is definitely making your boy pay for daring to take two days off to see family, but I digress.

However, in the effort to save time, please feel free to check out my in-depth breakdown on this fight over at MMAJunkie.com.

I hate my pick and believe it’s dog or pass from a betting perspective as I’ll be looking at D-Rod live, as well as potentially adding some of his round 2 and 3 fliers for crazy plus odds if I’m (god forbid) up by this time of the card. Good luck with whatever you end up on, as sadly Medic round knockout is the most likely outcome here.

UFC Belgrade co-main event: Blachowicz vs. Stirling

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-headliner in Belgrade features an impromptu light heavyweight affair between Jan Blachowicz and Navajo Stirling that’s sadly the lesser of two evils considering the needless rematch it replaced.

Although I’ve long-respected Blachowicz as a live dog, he sadly looks like an old and impotent one in his latter years.

Blachowicz is still skilled and crafty enough to stymie decent parts of his opponent’s offense, but he lacks the explosion in his strikes and takedowns, as well as his consistency in output. Add in that Blachowicz has only had one win (via injury) in the past half decade, and it’s hard not to favor Stirling in this spot.

Sure, this is undoubtedly a step up on short notice, but I’ve been impressed with Stirling’s steady rise and suspect he’s catching Blachowicz at the perfect time.

Blachowicz’s chin and body parts alike could give way at any time given his age, so I elected not to get too cute and just threw Stirling in a parlay. I also couldn’t help but take a shot on Stirling’s takedown totals as well since I see most roads funneling to top control for the City Kickboxing product.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

In case the picture above doesn’t click for you, I had to give love to a reference from the legendary MMA ANALYSIS podcast, particularly when talking about the Serbian dream, “Dusky Toades” (aka Dusko Todorovic).

Despite Valentin training in my backyard of Xtreme Couture with fighters I respect, I have harder time respecting the Swiss fighter (for multiple reasons lol). But half-jokes aside, I don’t appear alone in thinking that Todorovic is live given that he’s the seeming public dog this week (which is keeping me off him outside of some round robin exposure with is KO prop).

A sub is also on the table in the event of a Dusky Toades win, but Valentin, to his credit, appears to be putting a lot of work into rounding out his grappling and I imagine is getting better at surviving said grappling given the wrestlers he’s training with in Las Vegas.

And though I officially picked Mateusz Rebecki and threw Rebecki sub in an alternate round robin, I (once again) believe that Kyle Prepolec is a way livelier dog than being credited for given his skills in southpaw vs. southpaw affairs and his deceptive resume.

Though Prepolec is technically winless in the UFC and against UFC-level southpaws alike, the Canadian has been on the wrong end of some weird beats and has been competitive standing in basically every defeat – as he was well on his way to beating Drew Dober until a brutally timed low blow allowed the American to give Prepolec his first stoppage via strikes (one of multiple terrible beats I was on in just that night, mind you… because of course).

Anyways, Rebecki should fight smart and submit Prepolec. The potential problem, however, is that the Pole never fights smart and wears damage so poorly that Buffer’s intros give him bloody noses. If Rebecki isn’t able to implement his ground game early, then it’s fair game for Prepolec to test the Pole’s durability after all these repeat wars via his check hooks and head kicks.

And despite officially picking Ludovit Klein, I don’t blame anyone piling in on Tofiq Musayev’s money line given that’s inflating over 2-1 on the plus money side of the spectrum.

I also broke down this fight in my feature via the Action Network. And considering my recent run on my betting articles with them (as well as my absolute cursed, jinx’d ass existence), I better get a thank you card for Musayev bettors – who can head to the window with confidence this weekend.

Southpaw stats for UFC Belgrade:

• Uros Medic, who faces fellow southpaw Daniel Rodriguez, is 2-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Geoff Neal, Tim Means; Losses: Punahele Soriano, Jailin Turner).

• Daniel Rodriguez, who faces fellow southpaw Uros Medic, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Tim Means; Losses: Kelvin Gastelum), but he also went 1-1 with Contender Series-level southpaws (beating Ricco Farrington and losing a controversial decision to Victor Reyna in Combate Americas).

• Tofiq Musayev, who faces Ludovit Klein, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Mateusz Rebecki, who faces fellow southpaw Kyle Prepolec, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (losing to Ludovit Klein).

• Kyle Prepolec, who faces fellow southpaw Mateusz Rebecki, is officially 0-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Benoit Saint-Denis and Drew Dober).

• Nina Milsovic, who faces Hailey Cowan, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level lefties.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Medic

• Stirling

• Rakic

• Dirko Todorivir (aka Dusky Toades)

• Cepo

• Gugnon

• Klein

• Oliveira

• Nikolic

• Grad

• Rebecki

• Milosevic

• Leka

• Luciano

Plays:

• Parlay: Oliveira, Rakic, Stirling = +120 (2-U)

• Stirling O 0.5 TDs -130 (1.3-U)

• Rebecki-Prepolec U 2.5 -155 (1.55-U)

• SGP: Klein/O 1.5 = -128 (1.28-U)

• Oliveira ITD -160 (1.6-U), rd 2 KO +450 (.4-U), rd 3 KO +700 (.3-U)

• Nikolic ITD +175 (1-U), rd 2 +550 (.3-U), rd 3 +1000 (.25-U)

• Trixie cycle: Nikolic sub +450, Oliveira KO -150, Rakic dec +175 = +2421 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Prepolec +500, Nikolic rd 3 +1000, Oliveira rd 2 +325, Todorovic KO +375, Rodriguez +310 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +546173)

*BETTING NOTES: There wasn’t a need for an alternate round robin given my selections, but Luciano sub, Cepo round 2 and Gugnon-Janicic ends rd 2 were legs under consideration. I did do an alternate trixie cycle to that’s untracked/you may like more, as I took Leka KO, Klein dec and Rebecki sub for +2277. I since I wanted some action on Milosevic, I put her in a parlay with Oliveira, Stirling and Medic-DRod not going the distance for +110. Prepolec, Musayev, Nikolic and D-Rod are all live targets I’ll have an eye on. Good luck with whatever you end up on.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And if you miss hearing my voice for whatever reason, my guy Dave Ross was kind enough to invite me on his VSIN betting show, “First Strike,” to break down some of the fights we like from a betting perspective. Feel free to check out the show I was on via the YouTube clip below.

UFC Abu Dhabi main event: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Main event thoughts:

Like I’ve been saying for years now, the two words I use most as someone who writes about the UFC is “impromptu” and “rematch.”

Well, for this weekend’s warlord fiesta in the Middle East, the UFC – to the pain of the matchmakers – were forced to pull apart a meaningless rematch between Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov in order to deliver an impromptu opponent for another former champ in Magomed Ankalaev.

Moving past my urge to make any ‘getting passed around’ jokes that reveal my awful sense of humor, Guskov, to his credit, was quite excited to raise his hand in order to test himself atop the division.

That said, I can’t say I like Guskov’s chances opposite the Dagestani Stipe Miocic doppelgänger.

The fact that Guskov was preparing for a fight the following week aside, the Uzbekistani has never been scheduled for five rounds before and shows to flag in three-rounders. Furthermore, the lone southpaw sample on Guskov’s UFC record is a deceptive one considering that the “Hitman” looked lost as far as distancing goes and offered even less range weapons than usual (as seen in the southpaw report provided below).

However, with Ankalaev being tricky to forecast even when he’s winning, predicting an exact outcome could be trickier than some may suspect.

As for me, I’ll try not to overthink things (or get my hopes up that Ankalaev does the smart thing and wrestles) and will instead bank on Guskov either eventually succumbing to Ankalaev’s steady pressure or ends up walking his way into a counter hook that nukes him.

The official pick is Ankalaev by third-round TKO, as I may even throw Ank rd 3 in my round robin should I need a leg. As far as parlays go, I like anything from Ank’s money line, Fight does’t go, to even Ank ITD – but I would caution the Under 2.5 given Ank’s uncanny ability to drag out fights.

If you want more technical analysis, you can check out my usual in-depth breakdown on the main event via MMAJunkie.

UFC Abu Dhabi co-main event: Erceg vs. Temirov

Co-main event thoughts:

Between my Tourette’s wanting to shout “TEMI! TEMIRO! LIB-LAU!” every time I see the name Ramazan Temirov, to the Jimmy coded-ness of Steve Erceg, the co-main event essentially feels like MMA’s version of Southpark’s legendary cripple fight (apologies if the dated reference/wording there offends!).

But my weird expressions of nostalgic endearment aside, this is legitimately the fight that excites me most on this card (with Ismail Bonfim vs. Axel Foley Sola up there as well).

I’ll be covering this fight more in-depth from a betting perspective via The Action Network (which I’ll link here once it drops), but I basically feel like this is classic battle between a big puncher who is a big threat early and a tough technician who can pour things on late.

Temirov, who is obviously the big puncher in this equation, gave me a classic Leonard Di Caprio from “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood” meme moment when seeing him spark out C.J. Vergara in similar fashion to how Kai Kara-France caught Erceg a couple years ago.

For that reason, I don’t blame anyone taking a flier on Temirov given that this is one of the only playable money line matchups on the card. But with the plus money no longer being available on that side, I suggest looking Temirov’s finish props (as I’m currently eyeing his rd 1 prop at +550 as a potential hedge).

If you like Erceg like I do, you can either wait to see if he fully gets tilted to plus money or look to bet him live in round 1 if he shows to ability to not get too shaken or stirred by the shots he’ll likely be eating early.

But between not wanting to copout with just a live bet suggestion to me being back home in Hawaii for this already early card and likely unable to live bet (I know, I didn’t think I was gonna get back home this year but I’m hustling back for a couple days on some standby tickets I was hooked up with – but I digress.), I ended up laying some alternate round props on Erceg for plus money that’s listed below.

I may get cheeky with the official round robin buy taking fight ends in split decision as a potential hedge or bonus, with Temirov rd 1 also being a viable option if I don’t sprinkle on that small straight up.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Although I’ve yet to officially pick any dogs as of this writing, there’s no denying that Mike Davis is the apple of everyone’s eye this week.

From his real potential to the perceived race science that the majority of MMA cappers apply when trying to project ceilings (with little to no sense of self awareness or irony, mind you), Davis seems to unfortunately fall into the grand category of ‘could’ve been talent’ that keeps falling short of what are arguably too highly-set bars.

Again, to both Davis and his supporters’ credit, the native New Yorker has shown real promise in almost all phases of the fight game since his memorable Contender Series showdown with Sodiq Yusuff way back in 2018.

But with Davis barely averaging one fight a year to some of the inconsistent performances he’s turned in over the years, it becomes difficult to assess just where the hell this kid is at.

At this best, he should be able to, at the very least, stymie a decent amount of Aliev’s grappling offense while holding a more than solid striking edge on the feet. But between Aliev’s steady/potential improvements and the fact that this fight is taking place in the Middle East (a place where Davis was apparently poisoned by paint fumes the last time is was in these parts), it’s big-time buyer beware in a fight I’ll likely be avoiding altogether.

Despite Thomas Jefferson Peterson being a bit livelier than I initially credited for, he’s ultimately the kind of fighter who appears to be allergic to opportunists. And say what you will about Valter Walker and his potential limitations, “The Clean Monster” demonstrates the cheat code the helps even the most mid fighter clear the bulk of the big guy divisions—and that cheat code is called submission grappling.

For that reason, I’ll likely be picking Walker but this is a dog or pass spot from a betting perspective (as Peterson by decision wouldn’t be the craziest flier if you’re looking for a round robin leg… hell. I might).

Another, at least in my opinion, dog or pass situation with a stupid decision number attached is Wellington Turman and his fight with Islam Dulatov.

I know that Dulatov is the biggest odds-on favorite of the entire card, but his unproven, first-round-or-bust styling is an archetype we’ve seen go cruising for a bruising time and time again in this game.

Should Turman’s notorious chin hold up (a notorious chin despite only getting knocked out twice in a twelve year career, mind you), then the Brazilian has more than enough gas and grit to grind out Dulatov with this superior grappling and on-paper experience.

And though I could tell you that I heard good things about Turman in the gym during the lead-up to his comeback, this is ultimately a volatile fist fight where you’re giving me nearly 7-1 odds on the more proven product.

I don’t know if I have enough balls to make Turman my official pick, but I do believe that you don’t owe anyone an explanaition for sprinkling on capable dogs at these odds (as I may throw Turman’s money line or decision prop in my round robin).

Despite officially picking Magomed Zaynukov (aka “John Pork") to win, I believe that Damian Rzepecki can put some serious respect on his name by making this fight closer than the current lines indicate

John Pork’s origin story:

A southpaw-primary stance-switcher who cross trains between everywhere from Kill Cliff FC to Ilia Topuria’s team, Rzepecki is a tough and scrappy fighter with well-rounded skills and a high output of offense.

I still suspect that Zaynukov’s muay Thai shot selection and swagger from both long and clinch ranges will help him control a large part of the action, but I could see this fight getting away from the Russian early and subsequently leading to a rogue scorecard that doesn’t follow the so-called script.

For that reason, I believe that split decision props are worth a look if you’re not keen on committing to a money line.

Southpaw stats for UFC Abu Dhabi:

• Bogdan Guskov, who faces Magomed Ankalaev, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating a short-notice Billy Elekana).

• Magomed Zaynukov, who faces Damian Rzepecki, is officially 0-0 against UFC-level southpaws.

• Valter Walker, who faces Thomas Peterson, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Kennedy Nzechukwu).

• Ismail Bonfim, who faces Axel Sola, is officially 1-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Terrance McKinney; Losses: Benoit Saint Denis, Nazim Sadykhov).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Dagestani Stipe (Ankalaev)

• Erceg

• Dulatov

• John Pork (Zaynukov)

• Kuniev

• Vagaev

• Walker

• Jacoby

• Patterson

• Sola

• Tuchalov

• Aliev

• Saddam (Hussien)

Plays:

• Parlay No. 1: Tuchalov-Rebeiro U 1.5, Patterson, Ank-Gus DGTD +105 (3-U)

• Parlay No. 2: Tuchalov ITD, Patterson ITD, Ank ITD +171 (1-U)

• Parlay No. 3: Saddam, Patty-Ponz won’t start rd 3, Kuniev +138 (2.09-U)

• Erceg rd 3/decision +130 (1-U), *Temirov rd 1 +550 (.3-U)

• Jacoby -151 (1.51-U)

• Sola TKO/Points -150 (1.5-U), rd 2 +550 (.33-U), rd 3 +850 (.17-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Aliev dec -120, Jacoby KO +175, Walker sub +150 = +1160 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Sola rd 3 +800, Rzepecki-Pork split +550, Turman dec +1800, Erceg-Temirov split +425, Ankalaev rd 3 +700 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +4668200)

BETTING NOTES:

*EDIT (7/25): For my alternate round robin, I went with Peterson dec, Jacoby KO, Sola rd 3, Turman dec, Ankalaev rd 3. Lookout for Sola and Erceg as potential live bet spots. Good luck!

I’m not sure if I’m going to add a Trixie Cycle or yet another parlay, so be sure to check back here before fight time. As fas as alternate round robins go for houses that don’t offer split props, I’ll probably feel said spaces with something like Davis ML (depending on how much the No. holds), Jacoby by dec or KO, or maybe even Erceg by sub. Again, check back here to see what I update/lock in. Good luck with whatever you end up on.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC Oklahoma City main event: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Main event thoughts:

The main event on Paramount+ features a fight between two former champion at 185 pounds.

For the sake of saving time (as I’m already late getting this up despite staying up all night working as I sadly ran out of stream somewhere around 7am this morning), you can check out usual my in-depth breakdown offering via MMAJunkie if you care to dive deeper into each fighter’s styles and how I see them stacking up.

But in all honesty, this fight be the hardest fight to call for me on the card.

I believe that Dricus Du Plessis is the deserved favorite and will likely get back to his weird winning ways this Saturday. From youth, size and overall freshness, Du Plessis will be carrying in some on-paper edges and intangibles alike, so seeing him score a knockout early or late a la his patented lead-lead high kick wouldn’t surprise me.

That said, I still have a hard time betting against a championship caliber fighter and wrestler like Usman until I literally see the wheels fall off.

Don’t get me wrong: Usman is obviously in the post-prime of his career and has been for some time now. And despite the notorious status of his knees, Usman, akin to Bane from “The Dark Knight Rises,” was ‘born in the dark’ as far as his knees go (as Usman was dealing with everything from knee to not-so-known sternum issues dating all the way prior to his first title run).

Although this certainly seems like the fight for the proverbial wheels fall off, I can’t help but back to the more process-driven fighter to exploit the previous holes we’ve seen in Du Plessis’ game (e.g. Jab interplay and superior wrestling).

Aside from the Usman by decision leg I used to fill my round robin below, I’m not looking to have any real exposure on this fight as I otherwise intend on leaving it alone.

UFC OCK co-main event: Cannonier vs. Duncan

Co-main event thoughts:

Serving as the co-main event (for the sake of having a co-main event, I suppose) is a middleweight matchup between Jared Cannonier and Christian Leeroy Duncan.

Not only have we seen both this kind of crossroads matchup many times from the UFC brass, but we’ve also seen Cannonier tasked with this role of holding the proverbial door many times before.

Although Cannonier has successfully came through in similar spots before, CLD may be too big of an ask for the 42-year-old.

I’ve had my reservations about Duncan prior to this, but the English fighter’s dynamism and varied arsenal will likely overload an aging fighter like Cannonier by keeping him guessing. Add in the fact that Duncan is sitting down more effectively on his shots, and I suspect that bodes badly for Cannonier (who has looked much more hurt-able during this latter stage of his career).

I also didn’t like that Cannonier was only able to meaningful push for top position off a slip in his last fight, as that gives me pause on trusting him to follow/employ a proper game plan.

The MMA Lab has a lot of fighters on the board this weekend, but I’m not sure this one gets into the win column. The official pick is Duncan by knockout in the first half of the fight.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Despite picking a handful of dogs-turned-favorites on this fight card, there aren’t a ton of underdogs I’m officially taking outside of Usman in the main event.

One dog I ended up digging, however, is a favorite-turned-dog in Alberto Montes.

Despite opening as a -145 favorite, the betting line has completely flipped in Tommy McMillen’s favor. The more popular fighter who looks like the ‘betting bro podcast poster boy,’ McMillen offers all the side-cap wearing swag that Gen Alpha to Gen Z’ers dream about.

All jokes aside, McMillen offers some solid intangibles and comes from a solid training camp. The obvious problem, however, is that McMillen is a literal head-first fighter when it comes to both striking and grappling.

Even though most can’t help but call for him to eventually get knocked out due to his porous defense and aggression, I noticed that McMillen also has a propensity to give his head and neck on his habitual clinch attempts/resets alike.

Although Montes isn’t some thoroughly proven product, the Venezuelan appears to have a “game over” level submission series from the front-headlock that will seemingly be right there for the taking in this fight. For that reason, I couldn’t help but take a stab on Montes' money line after it blew up to +155 (and I also threw his submission prop in my round robin).

An underdog I’m much more reluctant on is Felipe Franco.

Both Franco and his opponent, Levi Rodrigues Jr., have face “Teacher Freddy,” Freddy Vidal. And though Franco fell short to Teacher Freddy in one of the more funnier Contender Series fights in some time, I feel like Franco could have more tools and slightly more potential upside in this matchup.

Each fighter seldom sees later rounds, but Franco has shown that he can fight for three fames if he needs to. Franco is also the more willing and capable ground fighter (at least from what we’ve been able to see so far), so I’ll reluctantly flip a coin and pick the dog opposite the first-round or bust favorite who is coming off of a drug suspension.

Despite officially picking Damien Anderson, I wanted to highlight Ezra Elliott as well (as this fight is just sick and comes completely out of nowhere).

Ezra Elliott is a solid wrestler-turned-submission grappler who comes out of the MMA Lab/Red Hawk Academy scene and employs straight forward process to his fights. He’s shown glimpses of developing his southpaw striking via lead hooks and left kicks, but grappling and wrestling is his clear strength.

Anderson, on the other hand, is a former B-Team member who co-owns his own gym in Texas. Anderson is also a southpaw, who I give an edge in the striking due to his tighter hands and willingness to use them.

Anderson is not as good or avid an offensive wrestler, but it’s not by a big margin as the Texan is more than happy to mix things up in the clinch or in the open and is a superb scrambler. Anderson, akin to his former B-Team stabelmates, is also an avid leg locker as I see that being the equalizer to any perceived size or wrestling edges Elliott may carry.

It’s a fight I hate to pick (especially with Elliott being a fighter featured in my prospects to watch column this year), but I’ll officially be picking the underdog-turned-favorite in Anderson.

Southpaw stats for UFC Oklahoma City:

• Mitch Ramirez, who faces Chase Hooper, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Carlos Prates on DWCS).

• Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, who faces Seok Hyeon Ko, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (but did get knocked out by a stance-switching Spike Carlyle on the regionals).

• Ezra Elliott, who faces Damien Anderson, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (though his last regional win came over a fellow southpaw).

• Damien Anderson, who faces Ezra Elliott, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

CFFC 157 Picks:

• Morales

• Berger

• Breslin

• Potoka

• Barnard

CFFC 157 Plays:

• Morales +125 (1-U)

• Berger, Breslin = -104 (1.04-U)

• Potoka +140 (1-U)

• Barnard -125 (1.25-U)

UFC Oklahoma City Picks:

• Usman

• CLD

• Hooper

• Kline

• Montes

• Delgado

• Ko

• Franco

• Coria

• Hines (aka James Tolkan, aka Goozie)

• Barbosa

• Anderson

UFC Oklahoma City Plays:

• Parlay: Barbosa, Coria, Kline = -148 (2.5-U)

• Montes +155 (1-U)

• Delgado -101 (1.01-U)

• Coria KO +145 (1-U), rd 2 +320 (.33-U), rd 3 +850 (.2-U)

• Kline ITD +310 (1-U), rd 2 +1100 (.17-U), rd 3 +1500 (.17-U)

• Hooper ITD -150 (1.5-U), rd 2 +430 (.33-U), rd 3 +850 (.17-U)

• *Hedge parlay (see updated notes): Ramirez KO/Coria ITD = +761 (.27-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Coria KO +125, Delgado dec +450, Montes sub +275 = +4541 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Coria rd 2 +275, Montes sub +275, Kline rd 3 +1200, Hooper rd 3 +850, Usman dec +350 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +781428)

*BETTING NOTES:

*EDIT (7/18): So I ended up adding an official Trixie above, as well as a few fun alternate cycles off the record (Barbosa sub, Hines KO, Delgado dec = +3221; Montes sub, Hines KO, Kline points = +2094). I also added a small hedge parlay after how awful Hooper looked on the scales given that KO is his likely losing condition. And since the main chalk parlay I gave out got inflated to shit as the week has went on, feel free to tail what I just did over the counter and use Coria’s ITD line with Kline and Barbosa’s money line for plus money. I also tooks some untrack Goozie rd 2 and 3 fliers that I can’t recommend in good conscious, but may officially add both Usman ML and Du Plessis mid-to-late round fliers depending on how the night goes. Good luck!

Still not sure what/if I want to jump in on a Trixie Cycle given how I somehow stopped hitting 2/3 cycle legs at 1 near 90 percent clip since I started Trixie’ing (of course), but I still may so check back before fight time if you’re curious. Not sure I’ll need an alternate round robin this week given my playable selections, but I will add that Goozie (Hines) rd 3 was on the table, and so was Delgado-Bashi ends in split (+600), as split props are extra lively on these smaller-region U.S. cards go. Hooper (and maybe Cannonier if you’re feeling crazy) could be decent live looks, but I’m not too antsy on either front, especially with Hooper looking like trash on the scale and missing weight. Be sure to check out my CFFC 157 action and the card itself (Berger-Carr one of the best fights of the weekend). Good luck with whatever you do.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC 329 main event: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Main event thoughts:

The main event for UFC 329 features a rematch of epic proportions when Conor McGregor makes his return to face Max Holloway.

McGregor, who has obviously been busy outside the sport with everything ranging from business ventures to catching sexual assault claims in Irish civil courts, has an undeniable hill to climb in front of him.

As someone currently covering this fight on the ground, I can’t say that the vibes are good for McGregor. In fact, the vibes are bad.

And not not just bad, but there’s an air of disingenuousness that rivals a prime Jon Jones in McGregor’s reactions and reasoning amidst this ‘spiritual journey’ he finds himself in.

The layoff, the lack of the same signs of shape and focus, the loss of aura and main focus on advertising of products new and old… it’s all bad signs.

Should McGregor somehow pull off a win, it was genuinely be one of the bigger upsets of the year in my mind (though the odds, which are always off kilter in McGregor contests, would obviously say different.

I broke down each fighter’s styles in my usual in-depth treatment via MMAJunkie that I encourage you to check out, but this fight, from a styles perspective, comes down to directionality and prolonged exchanges.

Since their first fight, one fighter has been much more active and one fighter has learned to fight off the back foot – – and McGregor is neither.

McGregor, who has prided himself as a businessman, appears to just be here for business. And for that, I’ll match the that energy and also be all about business.

As a combat sports gambler, these are the spots you dream of and wait for: a heavy ‘fan favorite’ who draws unwarranted attention and money opposite a real hitter who stays active in his own world.

Like Mayweather-McGregor or Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, I’m hoping we can add McGregor-Holloway to the mix given how much money I’m gonna have on Max.

You can see my official plays below, but I’ll also probably have some Holloway rd 2 and 3 sub props unofficially as well.

UFC 329 co-main event: Pimblett vs. Saint Denis

Co-main event thoughts:

In a strange car crash of a matchup, Paddy Pimblett squares off with Benoit Saint Denis.

Although part of me initially wanted to go in the direction of Saint Denis given his current winning form and streak under the unheralded Nicolas Ott, I still see a lot of the same porous defensive holes that have plagued BSD in both victory and defeat.

A southpaw liver kick stoppage or heavy top-pressure pathway is certainly not out of the question for a powerhouse like Saint Denis, but Pimblett might be too much of a stupidly durable opportunist for me to count on a BSD game plan to stay intact.

I’ll be curious to see how Pimblett deals with a southpaw considering the limited sample size in his lone UFC-level fight opposite a southpaw in Jordan Leavitt, but process isn’t exactly something that the Scouser relies on for wins.

It’s an incredibly reluctant pick (as my only play will be a “fight ends round 2” round robin leg), but the pick is Pimblett to capitalize on a BSD mistake and force a stoppage by strikes in the second frame.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

UFC 329 features a slew of live underdogs, and Kai Kamaka is one of them.

My Xtreme Couture and Hawaiian biases aside, there’s no doubt that Kamaka is the more proven and experienced product.

Don’t get me wrong: I don’t necessarily disagree with Luke Riley being the odds-on favorite (as I’ve highlighted Riley in my Prospects to Watch in 2025 via MMAJunkie), but both the current and opening odds are a bit too wide for my liking.

Riley shows some solid tools like left hooks and good eyes in exchanges, as I see his ceiling being fairly high. That said, Riley is not beyond getting tagged or having to work out of holes early, as I believe that both the points prop and money line on Kamaka is incredibly live, especially considering that, even in defeat, Kamaka is incredibly game and gives the judges plenty to score (hence said recent losses all coming by way of split decision).

Saying someone is ‘the hardest worker in the room’ is one of the most overstated phrases in this space, but Kamaka is probably the hardest worker I’ve seen in this space. I got Kai for +270 early in the week but that line so far gone that I didn’t track it.

Another live dog I like and am picking is King Green.

A longtime underrated and unheralded fighter, Green appears to finally be getting some flowers amidst his latest winning streak. Green could certainly get stopped early by a first-round merchant like Terrance McKinney, but if he survives than I feel like Green will get a stoppage win here.

For that reason, I threw Green round 2 in a round robin and may use the Green KO prop as a Trixie Cycle leg.

Aside from Paddy Pimblett (whom I shared my thoughts on above), the only other underdog I officially picked was Zack Reese.

Whether it’s because I underestimated Reese in the past or the fact that he’s working in my backyard of Xtreme Couture, I can admit that there’s not a ton of reasoning I can give you for this pick – hence me staying away from this fight.

Ryan Gandra may be a first-round merchant on paper (a type I usually fade), but Reese isn’t exactly super durable or defensively responsible. That said, he does have a deceptively diverse offensive toolkit that could bare fruit when paired with this stupid toughness.

Although I officially picked my guy Robert Whittaker, don’t be fooled: this is a clear dog or pass spot opposite Nikita Krylov.

As much as I love Whittaker, I hate this move for him as his recent performances, regardless of weight class, have left a lot to be desired on what appears to be a deteriorating fighter. If what Whittaker told me about his walking weight at middleweight was true, then maybe we do see a slightly more livelier version of Whittaker.

But again, this is dog or pass for Krylov and his finish props in my opinion.

Southpaw stats for UFC 329:

• Max Holloway, who faces Conor McGregor, is officially 2-3 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Dustin Poirier, Arnold Allen; Losses: Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor).

• Paddy Pimblett, who faces Benoit Saint Denis, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Jordan Leavitt).

• Lone’er Kavanagh, who faces Brandon Royval, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Jose Ochoa).

• King Green, who faces Terrance McKinney, is officially 6-7 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Erik Koch, Jim Miller, Jacob Volkmann, Alan Patrick, Nasrat Haqparast, Lance Gibson Jr.; Losses: Dustin Poirier, Jailin Turner, Drew Dober, Dan Lauzon, Tim Means, Francisco Trinaldo, Islam Makhachev).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Holloway

• Pimblett

• Sandhagen

• Kavanagh

• Green

• Whittaker

• Steveson

• Yanez

• Kamaka

• Wang

• PINAS

• Basharat

• Reese

• Costa

Plays:

• Holloway -225 (5-U), by Guillotine +1300 (.2-U)

• Holloway rd 2 +600 (.37-U), rd 3 +700 (.33-U), rd 4 +800 (.3-U)

• Parlay: Costa, Yanez = -135 (2.5-U)

• PINAS PARLAY: PINAS, Basharat, Holloway = +134 (1.69-U)

• Kamaka 3.5 pts -115 (1.15-U)

• Basharat-Garza Under 2.5 rds -104 (1.04-U)

• Costa ITD +100 (1-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Basharat sub +125, Pinas-Almeida goes to dec +240, Green KO +200 = +2156 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Costa rd 2 +450, Kamaka +225, Green rd 2 +700, BSD-Paddy ends rd 2 +275, Holloway rd 2 +450 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +294837)

BETTING NOTES:

*EDIT (7/11): So I messed up below saying I wouldn’t need an alternate forgetting that I had “fight ends rd 2” for the co-main… so instead, I went Paddy rd 2 (as well as Holloway rd 3) in my alternate round robin. Good luck!

As far as alternate round robins go, I don’t think I’ll need one given the straight forward money line and round prop options I elected. Green and Holloway would be mandatory live bets (as well as possibly Paddy), but I’ll be covering this event live and god forbid trying to stay professional so I’m going heavy pre-flop. Good luck with whatever you end up on and sorry for not getting this out as early as I thought/wanted.

So I messed up below saying I wouldn’t need an alternate forgetting that I had “fight ends rd 2” for the co-main… so instead, I went Paddy rd 2 (as well as Holloway rd 3) in my alternate round robin. Good luck!

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And in case you still miss me in audio form for whatever reason, I was lucky enough to be invited on “The Gambler’s Perspective” again to chat with my guys Nick Kalikas and Gianni The Greek. Check out their weekly show if you haven’t already!

UFC Baku main event: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Baku features a lightweight showdown between Rafael Fiziev and Manuel Torres.

I wrote about this fight more in-depth in my usual main event breakdown via MMAJunkie.com, so I encourage you to check that out for more technical notes on each of these fighters’ games.

But as far picks and plays go, my stubborn ass, as usual, is siding with the more proven and technical product over the MMA gambling twitter flavor of the month whose seldom ever seen a second round in his career.

Despite the UFC discontinuing their official Latin American developmental program years ago, the matchmakers are still pushing certain products so hard they’re arguably rushing them to market. Now Torres, who is quietly 31-years-old, is not necessarily new to the promotion, as the Team Entram product has yet to develop much of a sample size given both the length of his fights and the context of his resume.

The sad part is that Torres, who is spookily accurate counter puncher despite his wildman sensibilities, can totally come in here and knock out Fiziev in a first-round firefight that teaches us absolutely nothing (aside from how washed Fiziev is, of course).

But between Fiziev’s technical edge to the fact that he’s also mixing in more takedowns into his repertoire, I can’t help but side with the buy-low favorite in Fiziev to find the gaping holes in Torres’ defense – or lack thereof.

I know that live betting makes sense if you like Fiziev given that his opponent in a traditional first round or bust fighter, but Torres is also so wild and defensively vulnerable that it could make for a situation that leaves you little to no chance to get in live.

That said, I suspect that slower starts on each side, coupled with the previously-mentioned grappling, could help this fight get into the second frame as I also added “fight ends in Round 2” in my round robin below.

UFC Baku co-main event: Magomedov vs. Pereira

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event in Baku features one of three middleweight features on the main card (thanks Mick Maynard) as Sharaputin Magomedov takes on Michel “Demolidor” Pereira.

Despite having a nickname that sounds like something you’d purchase from a condom dispenser in the men’s restroom of a 90’s dive bar, Pereira hasn’t necessarily been known to engage with other men safely.

Although he’s been training in my backyard of Xtreme Couture for the past handful of fight camps and is constantly posting wild sparring sessions with Sean Strickland, Pereira (as well as Strickland for that matter) have shown that, for better or worse, their styles in social clips aren’t exactly fair representations of how they fight.

Sure, Pereira used to lean much more heavily into the showman gimmick when he first arrived in the octagon, but – whether it was the brutal loss to Anthony Hernandez or his nearly 50-fight career – the Brazilian has not looked at all himself in recent outings.

Whereas Magomedov, despite my dislike of his style and swag, has shown real toughness and a willingness to improve and attempt to take MMA seriously (he’s even been making marked efforts to improve his grappling, actively pursuing competitions between fights).

It’s not a confident pick as I’m still teetering on throwing Magomedov into a parlay (I know, I can’t believe what I’m typing either), but don’t be surprised if I have him as a leg in something seeing as how I’m still looking for a way to incorporate Ikram Aliskerov’s money line into something in case my submission/points double-chance play falls through.

A weird and contentious decision is the most likely outcome, but I think that Pereira, even on a good day, still largely gives Magomedov the fight he wants as I officially picked the one-eyed Dagestani to win by a semi-surprising knockout.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Continuing to break betting trends and self-imposed rules alike, I ended stepping into an alternate universe to find myself on the same side as Charles Johnson.

Despite my record of never cashing a bet in a Charles Johnson fight, I can’t deny the value on him here opposite Asu Almabayev.

Akin to Johnson, Almabayev has also been a fighter I’ve traditionally faded given both his over-inflation and the fact that his resume benefits from being the recipient of some incredibly kind scorecards and momentum-swinging moments to boot. But with Johnson arguably being 3-11 in the UFC if you take away 2 crazy comebacks and 3 insanely kind scorecards, I won’t lean into alternate reality records too hard here.

However, from a stylistic perspective, I believe that Almabayev’s propensity to handicap his game by fighting off the backfoot could really hurt him against a large and long dynamic athlete who can sprawl and scramble. In fact, I believe that Johnson has been steadily improving his takedown defense since his initial struggles in his earlier UFC career.

I also can’t help but notice that Almabayez still lacks setups for his shots and still gets his chin upright and out of position with even the slightest striking pressure. I would’ve played it safer with a points handicap shot on Johnson (but, of course, the one house that I have that offers those props tends to conveniently offer points props for literally every fight but the one I’m targeting).

So instead, I opted for the fat money line for the value. I’ve quietly conquered longstanding hurdles in the form of cashing crazy round props to winning in thought-to-be cursed cities this year, so why not attempt to finally take down my white whale of actually cashing something in a Charles Johnson fight?

The next underdog I like is Mathues Camilo.

In case you missed it, I linked my in-person interview with Camilo via Home of Fight above as any support for my growing interview work is appreciated. But as far as the fight goes, I can honestly say that I believe that Camilo is live despite my obvious bias given where he trains (as well the fact that I had Camilo in my Prospects To Watch column via MMAJunkie.com all the way back in 2023).

Although Sadykhov is the more experienced and fleshed out fighter who deserves to be favored, the savvy southpaw has a habit of fighting on incredibly thin margins, which is what also makes his fights so exciting. However, the margins have appeared to be wearing even thinner on Sadykhov and his action-heavy style as of late – making Camilo a very lively dog for as long as he’s standing.

But with Camilo smartly incorporating more takedowns into recent fights and camps alike, I suspect that the Nova Uniao black belt may have some surprises in store for Sadykhov. That said, there’s no denying that Camilo will be in sketchy territory if he exerts a lot of energy early and ends up in a dogfight with Sadykhov late.

For that reason, I went with Camilo’s early alternate round props and the over on his total takedowns that hopefully coverd regardless of the result.

Despite technically opening as the favorite, I now find myself picking an underdog in Abus Magomedov. Even though I initially leaned toward Michal Olekseijczuk earlier in the week, this fight has all signs of a trap fight (except that the numbers are simultaneously low and not great).

I ended up picking Magomedov by sub, but this is a stay away for me.

Speaking of dogs I picked but didn’t play, Andrey Pulyaev makes my slate this week.

Aside from not being a big believer in Nursulton Ruziboev (who made yet another camp change ahead of this fight), Pulyaev’s stupid toughness and southpaw sensibilities could prove some problems to Ruziboev given their size parity. Despite standing at 1-1 against dedicated UFC-level lefties, Ruziboev looks clearly less comfortable fighting southpaws, often laying in wait for his one big shot.

If said shot doesn’t come to fruition against one of the few fighters who can match him in length, then I see Ruziboev losing his luster and confidence over three frames for a decision loss.

Lastly but not leastly, I reluctantly picked Eric Nolan as an underdog opposite the hometown enhancement talent eater in Farman Hasanov.

Perhaps its my newfound CFFC bias, but Nolan, despite his record, looks more put together as a fighter at this point in their careers (at least from the limited footage I was able to watch on Hasanov). Hasanov looks good getting off the bus, but his fights (though not quite as suspect as Tahir Abdullayev’s sample size) were not impressive to say the least. It’s a stay away for me.

Southpaw stats for UFC Baku:

• Matheus Camilo, who faces Nazim Sadykhov, is officially 0-0 opposite dedicated UFC-level southpaws (but did show solid bodywork looks on the feet in an open stance matchup against a stance-switcher in Gabe Green).

• Abus Magomedov, who faces Michal Oleksiejczuk, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Caio Borralho).

• Nursulton Ruziboev, who faces Andrey Pulyaev, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Win: Eric McConjugal; Loss: Joaquin Buckley).

• Danil Donchenko, who takes on short-notice newcomer Theodor Berggren, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

UFC Baku Picks:

• Fiziev

• S. Magomedov

• Camilo

• Johnson

• Aliskerov

• A. Magomedov

• Nolan

• Yakhyaev

• Pulyaev

• Reyes

• Donchenko

• Matsumoto

• Nascimento

UFC Baku Plays:

• Parlay: Donchenko, Aliskerov, S. Magomedov +100 (2-U)

• Fiziev -105 (1.7-U)

• Matsumoto pts/sub -135 (1.35-U)

• Aliskerov pts/sub +200 (1-U)

• Johnson +245 (1-U)

• Camilo O 1.5 TDs +100 (1-U)

• Camilo rd 1, 2 +380 (.55-U)

• Reyes/Donchenko rd 2 +531 (.35-U), Reyes/Donchenko rd 3 +976 (.2-U)

• Aliskerov by kimura +2500 (.2-U)

• Trixie cycle: Ruzi-Puly goes the distance +120, Aliskerov sub +375, Fiziev KO +150 = +20513 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Matsumoto sub +500, Aliskerov sub +375, Johnson ITD +650, Camilo ITD +325, Fiziev-Torres ends rd 2 +300 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .02-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +363275)

CFFC 156 Picks:

• Stanford

• Valdez

• Sopko

• Gocashvili

• Fischer

CFFC 156 Plays:

• Parlay: Gocashvili/Sopko = +104 (1-U)

• Valdez +110 (1-U)

• Fischer -110 (1.10-U)

*BETTING NOTES: I didn’t play CFFC last week due the lack of available lines, but I was able to find some this week via BetOnline and ended up firing. As far as alternate UFC round robin legs go for houses that don’t offer stuff like ITD props, I’ll probably go with Camilo by sub (despite a KO also being on the table for him) and Johnson by KO (despite his front chokes being live due to Almabayev’s habit of giving his head and neck on takedowns). May also double down with Fiziev by KO instead of ends Round 2 for the final leg.

*EDIT (6/27): I ended up doing everything I said I was gonna do above, as well as ended up adding 1 big parlay and 2 little fun ones. Sucks I lost (1/2) at CFFC but hopefully I can make it up with UFC. Good Luck.

Still pondering a parlay to plug (if any) since I still want to money line exposure on Aliskerov. Good luck with whatever you end up on.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC Vegas 119: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi 2

General thoughts on the card:

Apologies for both the tardiness and lack of written words for this week’s Fluid Thoughts, but your boy had a very challenging week to top off my already insane workload, as I am SPENT.

That said, I do have some solid analysis and interviews that relate to the Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi main attraction atop this card.

Firstly, above is my interview I did with Manel Kape in our shared home gym of Xtreme Couture MMA via Home of Fight’s YouTube channel.

And though I state my usual XC/Eric Nicksick-related biases, I did my best to break down this fight, a fight I hate having to make a pick on, via my usual in-depth treatments MMAJunkie.com

I limited myself to some small Gooch exposure (pause) via my round robin below, but I’m not looking to get too involved with this weekend’s main event. That said, the Kape alternate round props of rds 1, 2 and 3 for +250 is a tempting look.

As for the co-main event, I’m looking to continue earning small victories a la cashing certain bets that have plagued me in the past. And for this weekend’s matchup between Ion Cutelaba and Navajo Stirling, I’ll be looking to follow up my Hokit round 2 cash by finally hitting a Striling in rd 2 (I missed out via an off week in his last outing, of course).

But with Cutelaba being live for the upset, round robin exposure will be all I got for that one.

I dig the slew of featherweight fights on the main card, and will have split decision and total takedown props as my targets. As far as breakdowns for those remaining main card fights go, keep an eye out over at MMAJunkie.com on fight day for those to drop.

Rematch stats for UFC Vegas 119:

• Manel Kape, who is set to rematch Kyoji Horiguchi, is officially 1-0 in career rematches (avenging his loss to Kai Asakura in RIZIN).

• Kyoji Horiguchi, who is set to rematch Manel Kape, is officially 5-0 in career rematches (beating Sergio Pettis, Makoto Takashi, Hiromasa Ougikubo, Darion Caldwell and Shintaro Ishiwatari).

Southpaw stats for UFC Vegas 119:

• Murtazali Magomedov, who faces Melsik Baghdasaryan, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Apex records for UFC Vegas 119:

• Kape 4-2, Gooch 1-0

• Cutelaba 2-2-1 (2-3-1 w/TUF), Stirling 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS)

• Fili 3-4-1, Lokdog 1-1 (2-1 w/DWCS)

• CeeRod 4-3, Amil 3-1 (4-1 w/DWCS)

• Lima 3-0 (4-0 w/DWCS), Borjas 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS)

• Baghdasaryan 2-0 (3-0 w/DWCS), Magomedov 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS)

• “Bia Bia” 1-0, Mullins 2-1

• NastyMentos 4-0 (4-1 w/DWCS), Rapisto 0-0 (0-1 w/DWCS)

• Bolanos 1-1, Aswell 0-1 (0-2 w/DWCS)

• Shahbazyan 0-0 (0-1 w/DWCS), Chokheli 0-0

• Rosa 5-1, Santos 5-0

• Collins 0-0, Tanzilovi 0-0 (0-1 w/DWCS)

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Kape

• Stirling

• CeeRod

• Magomedov

• Fili

• Lima

• “Bia Bia”

• NastyMentos

• Asswell

• Chokheli

• Santos

• Collins

Plays:

• Bia Bia ITD, Magomedov = +107 (2.5-U)

• Magomedov ITD -105 (1.55-U)

• Bia Bia ITD, Rosa-Santos O 2.5 = -134 (1.5-U)

• Lima ITD +125 (1.25-U)

• Lokdog O 0.5 TDs -120 (1.2-U)

• CeedRod O 2.5 TDs +110 (1-U)

• Bia Bia ITD, Magomedov rd 1 = +465 (.3-U)

• Bia Bia ITD, Magomedov rd 2 = +816 (.2-U)

• Trixie cycle: NastyMentos sub +200, Lima KO +225, CeeRod dec +125 = +2094 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Lokdog-Fili split +525, Magomedov rd 1 +250, CeeRod-Amil split +400, Stirling rd 2 +450, Gooch ITD +450 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +330759)

BETTING NOTES: With all the exposure above on Mesquita (“Bia Bia”), it appears the candidate for this week’s potential Topuria upset anchor is set. That said, I believe I have enough cross coverage across the board to still have a decent shot at profit in case Mesquita fails at finishing for the first time in her career in what should be a squash match. As fas as alternate round robin legs go for houses that don’t offer cheeky split or ITD props, I’m looking at Gooch sub, Fili ML, Lima sub or NastyMentos sub to group with the Stirling and Magomedov rd 1/2 flier legs (depending on what makes most sense price-wise). Good luck with whatever you end up on.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And in case, for whatever reason, you’re one of 12 people who miss hearing me breaking down fights on the regular, I was lucky enough to be invited to join a panel of amazing analysts and people I’m grateful to still call friends, Miguel Class (whose work is well worth supporting via his Patreon), Dan Albert (who I highly recommend subscribing to his Substack on here), Ryan Wagner (whose high quality work is worth following and supporting on his website), and my dude and former co-host Feno (who you can find and support on his YouTube channel, amongst other places).

I was also supposed to be on one of my favorite betting shows this week, but that sadly fell through at the 11th hour (which is probably for the better since I’m cancer to views and vibes alike in the MMA gambling community), but hopefully I can help quench the thirst of the handful from that side of the fence that still fuck with me with what I can offer here.

UFC Freedom 250 main event: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Main event thoughts:

The main event at the White House features a lightweight title unification fight between reigning champ Ilia Topuria and interim title-holder Justin Gaethje.

I wrote about each fighter’s game much more in my usual in-depth breakdowns (that sadly don’t drop until later in the week) via MMAJunkie that I always encourage you guys to check out or share despite their unfavorable release times (out of my hands, unfortunately, but I hear your complaints and know they come from a good place).

Aside from obviously picking the undefeated pound-for-pound great in Topuria to win, I’m hoping the sitting champion takes the path of least resistance a la his underrated grappling game should it be presented to him.

But regardless of the method Topuria chooses, I suspect this one will be over sooner rather than later.

Gaethje, who has been seen sporting some thick-framed glasses outside of his cage-fighting career some time, has always been more of a tactile and sensory striker due to said vision issues. For that reason, fighters with solid counters and level/speed changes have wreaked havoc on Gaethje in both victory and defeat.

And with the natural deterioration that comes with age and miles alike, the holes in Gaethje’s game have only become even more apparent as the American has quietly dropped 7 of his last 8 first rounds (something you can’t afford to do against the likes of Topuria).

As you’ll see below, I got some heavy exposure on fighters and their Unders, and Topuria is among top the list.

UFC Freedom 250 co-main event: Pereira vs. Gane

Co-main event thoughts:

In what feels like the hardest call for all this weekend, Alex Pereira will be moving up to heavyweight to take on Ciryl Gane for the interim UFC heavyweight title.

The heavyweight title remains one of the most frustrating follows for those familiar with the UFC and it’s history of failing to negotiate with accoladed champions that date back to Randy Couture and are still present with the fallouts between Francis Ngannou, Jon Jones and Dana White. But I digress.

This is another fight that I covered in-depth via my breakdowns over at MMAJunkie that should drop Friday (as I’ll, as always, update here as well with embedded links when I can).

But this is basically a fight where I’m forced to pick a winner between two fighters that, particularly in this situation, are hard to trust. I try not to put too much into looks or pre-fight padwork, but I’m not sure I’m liking what I’m seeing or feeling from the Pereira side of the equation, as this feels like a classic letdown spot.

But with ‘letdown’ being Gane’s middle name (unlike his nickname, “Bon Gamin,” which is French for ‘Boner Jams), no shenanigans are off the table for this contest.

In fact, I believe that this fight has the propensity to get even stupider should Gane pursue the takedowns that I suspect he will be going for this Sunday. For that reason, I believe that – outside of a shot on everyone’s favorite in Pereira – the Overs and total takedown props might be the most sensible looks for this fight.

I took the over when it was still within striking range at -140, but I genuinely can’t say that I recommend playing it at the higher prices that are out there now. I’m probably falling into the classic analyst trap of siding with more proven products when things go sketchy, but I’m officially picking Gane by decision and praying I’m wrong as this is the first time I’m picking against Pereira and feel terrible for it as a huge fan of his.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Despite this card lacking underdogs that fit more of our tastes, I’m find myself siding toward Kyle Dukakis.

But never-ending obscure film and political references aside, I do genuinely believe that Daukaus is a live dog opposite Bo Nickal.

As someone who successfully faded Nickal opposite a lanky and awkward southpaw who can grapple in the past, it’s hard not to take a shot when getting a slightly more technical version of that archetype.

I covered some of the context to Daukaus’ lone southpaw loss/last loss to Eryk Anders in the podcast linked above, but I’m not sure that Nickal can recreate those kind of conditions outside of landing another head kick (which will be much harder in a closed-stance matchup that features a much more active and skilled striker in Daukaus).

I was hoping for closer to 3-1 odds for a bet on Daukaus given the popularity of Nickal in what is a perceived smash spot for many, so I was happy to take Daukaus’ points handicap prop instead at +155 and throw his sub in a round robin, as I could see him stinging Nickal on the feet and forcing a shot into “The Darce Knight’s” specialized kill zone.

Although I’m not officially picking this next underdog, the public dog of the week is clearly my guy, the “Cream Machine,” Steve Garcia.

Although Garcia was my 2024 under-the-radar Fighter of the Year for MMAJunkie, I suspect that this fight with Diego Lopes is awfully near the ceiling for the type of fighter whom aforementioned award is typically given to (as we saw this recently with my 2025 under-the-radar selection in Melquizael Costa when he met Arnold Allen).

Don’t get me wrong: Garcia is a live dog and the odds are close for a reason, but I believe that Lopes’ opportunistic skills and insane durability will, once again, bail him out of trouble.

Derrick Lewis, both as a heavyweight and himself, is also a live dog that I’d be remiss not to mention here.

And though I’ve taken unpopular picks on Lewis opposite wrestlers before (like I did when he fought Curtis Blaydes), “The Black Beast” has shown a steady but sure deterioration in his ability to both stage comebacks and beat off grapplers – something he’s traditionally/ironically excelled at.

If Lewis does win now, it’s usually early (hence most of my exposure on the under for this fight).

I’m a traditional hater of unders of all types, especially 1.5’s for heavyweights. However, this is a card full of fights that I have a hard time seeing go long.

I threw in some Josh Hokit round two and round three 2-leggers that are paired with Mauricio Ruffy’s finish props as a somewhat cost-effective way to catch/recoup some cash should this fight drift Over, but I’m hoping I either don’t need it or bonus in the sweet spot of round 2 (as I put both Hokit and Ruffy rd 2 fliers in my round robin as attempts to either hedge or hopefully bonus with the Under 1.5 exposure).

I sadly don’t think that Michael Chandler is a very live dog this weekend, but I’ll be writing more about that fight and explaining my thought process and bets behind it in my feature over at Action Network that drops on fight day with up to date odds.

And though I sadly don’t think Aiemann Zahabi is a very live dog this weekend, I might as well touch on that fight since that’s the only one I’ve yet to talk about in this article.

Not only do I kinda hope I’m wrong about my prediction on this fight, but I also hope that Donald Trump doesn’t try and recreate one of my favorite episodes of “It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia” by making Zahabi wear the same garb that Rickety Cricket had to wrestle in (though Zahabi throwing sand in Sean O’Malley’s eyes wouldn’t be the worst tactic in the world).

But before I get cancelled for these outdated mid-00 American references, let me just seriously say that Zahabi is someone I’ve hung out and had dinner with and seems like a genuinely sweet human being whom I will always root for in some form or fashion.

That said, you gotta separate those feelings when betting as I couldn’t help but sprinkle small on O’Malley’s late round props given that this should be a fairly stylistically favorable fight for him (famous last words).

Southpaw stats for UFC Freedom 250:

• Diego Lopes, who faces Steve Garcia, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Gavin Tucker).

• Kyle Daukaus, who faces Bo Nickal, is officially 2-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Gerald Meerschaert, Jamie Pickett; Losses: Eryk Anders).

• Bo Nickal, who faces Kyle Daukaus, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Jamie Pickett; Losses: Renier de Ridder).

• Alex Pereira, who faces a southpaw-primary stance-switcher in Ciryl Gane, is officially 3-1 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, Khalil Rountree Jr.; Losses: Magomed Anakalaev).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Topuria

• Gane : (

• O’Malley (aka Ziggy Sobotka)

• Hokit

• Ruffy

• Dukakis

• Lopes

Plays:

• Parlay: Hokit-Lewis U 1.5, Topuria = -125 (2.5-U)

• SGP: Ruffy/U 1.5 = -110 (2-U)

• SGP: Topuria/U 1.5 = +102 (1.5-U)

• Pereira-Gane O 2.5 -140 (1.4-U)

• Gane Over 1.5 TDs -110 (1.10-U), Pereira O O.5 TDs +550 (.2-U)

• Dukakis 3.5 pts +155 (1-U)

• Ruffy KO/Hokit rd 2 = +650 (.3-U), Ruffy KO/Hokit rd 3 = +1195 (.2-U)

• Lewis KO/Topuria ITD = +470 (.2-U)

• O’Malley rd 2 +700 (.25-U), rd 3 +1000 (.17-U)

• Trixie cycle: O’Malley KO +175, Gane dec +275, Topuria sub +400 = +5056 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 3 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Lopes sub +325, Dukakis sub +600, Ruffy rd 2 +350, Hokit rd 2 +450, Topuria sub +400 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .03-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +368056)

BETTING NOTES: *Edit! (6/13): So I lied below. Perhaps I’m getting overtaken by the political brouhaha, but I found a cycle I liked and decided to have some fun and spread some exposure around by having small exposure on fighters like Gane and O’Malley to win in some of their more likely outcomes. I also can’t help but think that we’ll all feel stupid for not sprinkling on Lewis in this spot if he wins given how serious he appears to be taking this, so I threw a super small .2 sprinkle on him parlayed with Topuria ITD for over a Unit return if it hits. Cross coverage everywhere with proper sizing (I hope).

^ (6/11): Between my official selections being playable basically everywhere to the fact that there’s only seven fights on the card, there’s no alternate round robins or need to for me force any cycles or trixie’s. I will be keeping an eye on live markets given the volatility of the outdoor event but its still risky regardless for a ‘pick a side and ride’ type slate. Good luck with whatever you end up on.

Hey, guys and gals. I actually already have most of my picks and plays locked in and will have Fluid Thoughts up earlier than usual this week, but I just wanted to satiate your fight week hunger by sharing a round table podcast that I was incredibly fortunate to be a part of (as I don’t take invites and opportunities like this for granted).

It’s a long and thorough listen, but it’s probably the most in-depth breakdown on each fighter’s game that you’re gonna find on these streets. Also some fun (and morbid) banter from myself and others. Enjoy!

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

In case you’re missing me doing regular podcasts or you just prefer audio/video mediums, I was a guest on this week’s Anik and Florian Podcast, where I broke down some key fights and went head-to-head with a betting slate against Kenny Florian:

AND—I also broke down the ENTIRE card with my guy Clint (DieHardMMA) on his channel that I definitely recommend you check out:

UFC Vegas 118 main event: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Las Vegas features a showdown between ranked welterweights, Belal Muhammad and Gabriel Bonfim.

I broke down this fight in my usual in-depth main event previews via MMAJunkie that I suggest you check out, but this fight has some quiet crossroads themes to go long with strong stylistic pitfalls that exist on both side of this equation.

On one hand, Bonfim offers the knees, leg kicks and left-sided strikes that have traditionally troubled the wrestling-boxing archetype that Muhammad bings to the table.

The potential problem, however, is that Bonfim typically has about 7-9 minutes of hard fight in him before he starts to visibly slow down (something Muhammad and his superior stamina must be salivating over).

Both men have positive records in the smaller octagon as well, so expect heavy action early. That said, if Muhammad can survive the storm, then he will likely start to pull away down the stretch.

I’ll officially side with Muhammad and his traditionally stellar prep work for opponents, but the Palestinian-American’s age and remaining durability after subsequent wars is admittedly keeping me away from this fight as far as betting goes.

UFC Vegas 118 co-main event: Allen vs. Shahbazyan

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night 278 features a strange middleweight pairing with trap-fight feels attached.

Despite Brendan Allen being a Top 5 middleweight who just beat a title contender, the Louisiana native is taking an on-paper step down in accepting a fight with Edmen Shahbazyan.

Shahbazyan has been a fighter I have traditionally faded from a betting perspective given his eaerly-career propensity to blow his proverbial wad early. However, since pairing up with Eric Nicksick and company at Xtreme Couture MMA, Shahbazyan has quietly been showing a much more mature and composed game in all areas.

There’s obvious some natural bias on my part given that Shahbazyan both trains in my backyard and was a recent interview subject of mine (inserted above for those curious of my interview work!), but I genuinely get bad vibes from the Allen side of this fight.

Don’t get me wrong: Allen is 100 percent the deserved favorite in this spot and I’m genuinely surprised that his money line isn’t higher. However, it appears I’m not alone in my feelings as the market is also moving against Allen in this spot.

I’ll officially take a flier on the underdog and will probably put Shahbazyan’s KO prop in my round robin, but other than that I won’t be looking to invest heavily in this potential trap fight.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Aside from the underdog pick flier on Edmen Shahbazyan that I already covered in the co-main event breakdown above, I also gotta give some love to another Vegas dog on this Vegas card in Jordan Leavitt.

Although I’ve been a big supporter of Brito in the past, Leavitt feels like a stylistic foil for the suspect decision-making that the Brazilian brings to the table. From his flagrant fouls to his tendencies to give up positions for submissions, Brito can be admittedly hard to trust as a favorite.

You can arguably buy-low on Brito given the somewhat surprising market push for Leavitt, but this fight went from dog or pass to favorite or pass – and now is just a straight up pass for me (minus a potential round robin flier leg on Leavitt by decision, that is).

Another underdog I’m officially siding with but am not totally confident in is Edgar Chairez.

Chairez is an underrated fighter who has done well for me in the past, but Bruno Silva is also an underrated product (and one I’ve had trouble to get a beat on if I’m being honest). But my personal history with each fighter aside, this is a volatile fight that can play out a multitude of ways no matter how you cut it – hence the altogether pass from me.

Speaking of unpredictable passes, I will also be reluctantly taking an underdog pick on Priscila Cachoeira to beat Chelsea Chandler.

Chandler is the bigger and stronger grappler who has the stronger on-paper paths given both her opponent and the fighting terrain of the small cage. That said, I’m still not sold on the seriousness of Chandler and her ability to take shots under fire.

Say what you will about Cachoeira, but she has superior experience, training partners and is one of the few women in any division with legit one-punch knockout power. I might put her KO prop in my round robin since my round robin book sadly doesn’t have my desired Iw Baraniewski by submisssion option, otherwise I’ll be avoiding any real exposure to his fight.

Southpaw stats for UFC Vegas 118:

• Fares Ziam, who faces Tom Nolan, is officially 2-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Claudio Puelles, Nazim Sadykhov; Losses: Don Madge, Terrance McKinney).

• Santiago Luna, who faces Bryce Mitchell, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Marcus McGhee, who faces John Yannis, is officially 1-0 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (beating Jonathan Martinez).

• Priscila Cachoeira, who faces Chelsea Chandler, is officially 2-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Josiane Nunes, Gina Mazany; Losses: Valentina Shevchenko, Miranda Maverick).

• Joanderson Brito, who faces Jordan Leavitt, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Win: Westin Wilson; Loss: *William Gomis).

Apex records for UFC Vegas 118:

• Muhammad 4-1-1, Bonfim 2-0 (3-0 w/DWCS)

• Allen 6-2 (7-2 w/DWCS), Shahbazyan 2-4 (4-4 w/TUF Finale & DWCS)

• Ziam 0-1, Nolan 1-1 (2-1 w/DWCS)

• Mitchell 3-0, Luna 0-0

• Schnell 0-3 (0-4 w/TUF Finale), Costa 2-1 (3-1 w/DWCS)

• Baraniewski 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS), Tafa 1-1

• McGhee 3-0, Yannis 0-1

• Silva 3-1 (4-1 w/Yan-Merab 1 card), Chairez 0-0 (0-1 w/DWCS)

• Cachoeira 2-2, Chandler 2-2

• Leavitt 5-2 (6-2 w/DWCS), Brito 5-2 (6-2 w/DWCS)

• Chaves 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS), Duben 0-1 (1-1 w/DWCS)

• Souza 2-3, Carnelossi 2-1

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Muhammad

• Shahbazyan

• Ziam

• Mitchell

• Baraniewski

• Costa

• McGhee

• Chairez

• Chachoeira

• Leavitt

• Chaves

• Souza

Plays:

• Parlay No. 1: Souza/Chaves/Costa ITD = +100 (2.16-U)

• Parlay No. 2: McGhee/Baraniewski/Ziam = +114 (2.09-U)

• SGP: Costa/U 1.5 = -128 (1.28-U)

• Mitchell -135 (1.35-U)

• Ziam ITD +125 (1-U), Ziam O 1.5 TDs +100 (1-U)

• Baraniewski O 0.5 TDs -125 (1.25-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Leavitt dec +300, Costa rd 2 +325, Baraniewski sub +275, Ziam rd 2 +450, Shahbazyan KO +275 (.17-U per 2-leg combo for a total exposure of 1.7-U on the RR, .05-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +105087)

*BETTING NOTES: As I said in a previous section above, Cachoeira by KO was one of the legs I was also considering if I couldn’t get access to the Baraniewski sub prop. Not a lot I like on this card from a prop perspective (though I do believe that the total takedown props for Baraniewski and Ziam that I cited earlier in the week have been released at playable lines fwiw) *EDIT: I added the TD props I talked about here and in the podcasts linked above. Good luck with whatever you end up on!

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC Macau main event: Song vs. Figueiredo

Main event thoughts:

The casual, lazy – and most importantly unfunny – racism is getting so ridiculous in this space anytime there’s an asian card that it’s actually killed my enthusiasm to make penis puns for Yadong fights (and for those of you that know me know how much I love my dong jokes).

But at the risk of sounding like the other absolute dumbasses in this space who regress their comedy back to “Ching Chong” jokes (if I can even call them that) or just the outright dehumanizing shit I’ve heard from colleagues this week in regards to “Asians not being able improve/having small penises,” how about I try to be the one who actually sticks to analysis around here, huh? How does that sound?

Ok.

The main event in Macau features a bantamweight bout between Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo.

My in-depth breakdown over at MMAJunkie.com will be posted shortly at the time of this writing. so forgive me and my sleep-deprived ass for not going into crazy detail here.

Despite these odds being insultingly wide, I believe that Song is the rightful favorite and will be picking him to win.

If the UFC didn’t waste what was left of Figueiredo’s prime on endless rematches with Brandon Moreno and we saw Figueiredo move up to bantamweight sooner, than I’d like the chances of the former champ’s counter punches and takedowns to win the day.

But with Figueiredo walking a finer and finer line as far as his willing output and win conditions go, I can’t reliably bank on him to capitalize on any of Song’s mistakes (which the Chinese fighter will make given his propensity to sometimes get off track in fights).

Don’t be surprised if you see me on late-round Song fliers below of before fight time.

UFC Macau co-main event: Zhang vs. Menifield

Co-main event thoughts:

Although this co-main event between Zhang Mingyang and Alonzo Menifield is barely worth a write-up, I figured I just share a couple of quick factoids about this fight before feeding you my prediction.

I was already in agreement with bettings odds favoring Zhang, but there’s no denying that this is a true two outcome fight (shoutout Zane Simon).

Either Zhang finds his usual win condition of an early knockout or Menifield pulls away down the stretch of a fight that gets uglier the longer it goes.

I don’t think anyone should be surprised if Menifield plays spoiler with his somewhat underrated wrestling (by light heavyweight standards, anyway), but I’ll be curious to see what improvements Zhang made after spending his entire training camp stateside in my backyard of Xtreme Couture.

I also noticed that Menifield traditionally fares poorly when fighting outside of the United States, officially standing at 0-2-1 in overseas UFC bouts.

I’ll pick Zhang to win by first-round knockout.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Despite barely picking any underdogs on this card, I couldn’t help but back one of my favorites: Loma Lookboonmeee.

But favoritism aside, I’ve honestly never been high on Jaqueline Amorim (hence picking against her more often than not). Aside from having a supsect gas tank and limited MMA game, we just saw an undersized asian striker exploit the Brazilian’s holes last time out.

I’m not rushing to back Lookboonmee at the window given that I missed the best of the line/where it is now, but I will likely be incorporating Lookboonme by decision into my round robin.

Although he’s currently a favorite, Alex Perez did technically open as a slight dog to Sumudaerji.

It’s nice to see some of the market respond correctly by taking the Perez side, but that doesn’t stop the slew of the same lazy and uniformed analysis you’ll hear on almost every gambling podcast when it comes to breaking down Alex Perez fights (which, of course, never mentions of any of the crazy caveats or outright bad luck involved on the Perez side).

But as someone who also has insane bad luck and gets relentlessly shit on by the MMA gambling community, I guess you could say I sympathize with Perez. But I digress.

Alex Perez’s southpaw report:

Anyways, if you want to hear more about why I’m taking Perez over Sumudaerji, than I strongly urge you to check out my fight day article on it via The Action Network.

Although I didn’t pick Carlston Harris, the former reggae band member is always live for a submission upset (particularly against a potentially combustable customer in Jayke Metheuws).

I also sadly didn’t pick Angela Hill, but she’s always live for a split-decision win (and would love to see her end her career with some W’s).

Luis Gurule’s southpaw report:

*EDIT: I ended up giving in just firing on Tsuruya for a parlay leg. He’s one of my prospects to watch column fighters so I leaning into those good graces.

---

I was also very tempted take fliers on Aoriqileng and Luis Gurule, but opted to pick the favorites and stay away after reviewing tape and ultimately realizing that those are more ‘fact-finding’ fight to view and not necessarily bet.

Southpaw stats for UFC Macau:

• Alex Perez, who faces Sumudaerji, is officially 0-1 opposite dedicated UFC-level southpaws (losing to Joseph Benavidez off a uncalled head clash but did beat a southpaw-primary stance-switcher in Charles Johnson).

• Luis Gurule, who steps in on short notice to face Rei Tsuruya, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Ode Osbourne).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

UFC Macau Picks:

• Song

• Zhang

• Pavlovich

• Asakura

• Jayke Metheuws

• Perez

• Dias

• Ding

• Haddonfield

• Tsuruya

• Xiong

• Vera

• Lookboonmee

UFC Macau Plays:

• Asakura KO/pts -225 (3-U)

• SGP: Pavlovich/U 1.5 = -138 (1.38-U)

• Parlay: Tsuruya/Pavlovich/Song = -137 (1.4-U)

• Perez -130 (1.33-U), by arm triangle +1600 (.1-U)

• Song rd 2 +700, rd 3 +950, rd 4 +1300 (.33-U each), rd 5 +1600 (.17-U)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Lookboonmee dec +150, Perez sub +300, Asakura KO +100, Zhang rd 1 KO +150 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.02-U exposure total plus .1-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +4900)

CFFC 154 Picks:

• Starks

• Coyle

• Leshukov

• Simpson

• Elsony

CFFC 154 Plays:

• Parlay: Coyle, Leshukov = -111 (1.61-U)

*BETTING NOTES: As far as CFFC goes, I’m still waiting to see if the Josiah Simpson line drops below -140 but may still just keep the 2-leg parlay as my lone play there (deceptively trickier card and I really want to go 5-0 on these events). As for UFC, I was very tempted to take a shot on the U 2.5 rds in Harris-Matthews. I’m also tempted to parlay the final 3 favorites of the card if I’m up since it’s roughly -110. Not even sure if I’ll do an alternate round robin given the miserably low numbers I went with already. Tread carefully and good luck!

Quick thoughts:

Apologies for not giving you guys my usual offerings here this week, but the two cards and some health stuff caught up with me despite my usual efforts of multiple all-nighters of work.

I have quick picks up over at MMAJunkie.com for both the main card of UFC Vegas 117 and for the top 3 fights of MVP MMA 1, as well as my usual in-depth breakdown on the main event for UFC between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa that I encourage you to check out as well.

I also packed in some interesting stats and analysis for Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry via Action Network that I encourage you to check out as well, as it explains why that’s one of the few fights I semi-seriously targeted this weekend.

My main action is actually on Ronda Rousey to win in rds 1, 2 or 3 at -310 as I’m hoping that and the chalky parlay cover my sins for the day. I’m not even a big Rousey fan or anything like that, but these mass public events offer too good of opportunities when it comes to chalk.

You got folks thinking Perry-Diaz is a boxing fight, wondering aloud if Diaz is gonna hit them with the “Compton slap.” (Yes, these are among the many things I’ve seen on my timeline this week to help indicate what kind of money is coming in on these fights, which – along with last week’s hit on Brady that I and other ‘smaht’ folks were on – serve as reminders to never be afraid to fade the public).

On the other hand, you have an even weirder group of self-professed hardcores caping for the UFC (on this of all fucking weeks), all while crapping on this effort from MVP Promotions that allows fighters from all walks to get some real paydays while injecting some needed life and competition into the so-called free market. Because god forbid we have that, right?

I mean, I’m not even a fan of MVP or the privileged Paul who runs it, but the UFC betting bros who feel like this is the hill to die on are hilarious to me. Like, Dana isn’t gonna let you suck his dick, bro.

Anyways, to those who enjoy the actual sport of MMA and the circus it is/always was, then I hope you enjoy whatever you watch this weekend.

Southpaw stats for UFC Vegas 117:

• Arnold Allen, who faces Melquizael Costa, is officially 1-0 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws (beating Makwan Amirkhani).

• Melquizael Costa, who faces Arnold Allen, is officially 0-1 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws (losing to Steve Garcia).

Apex/smaller octagon records for UFC Vegas 117:

• Allen 2-0, Costa 4-1

• Choi 1-0-1 (2-0-1 w/TUF Finale fight), Santos 2-0

• Wellmaker 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS), Diaz 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS)

• Bukake 1-2, Edwards 0-0

• Cumba 1-2 (2-2 w/DWCS), Sopaj 0-1

• Veretennikov 1-1 (1-2 w/DWCS), Ox fighter 4-2

• Tucos for Tokko Puffs 0-1, Erslan 0-0

• Gantt 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS), Miniev 0-0

• Vieira 4-3, Cavalcanti 3-0

• Brundage 4-3-1 (4-4-1 w/DWCS), Pertroski 5-1

• Alderaan 2-1, Viana 2-2

• Barez 0-1 (0-2 w/DWCS), Gurule 0-1 (1-1 w/DWCS)

• Bannon 0-0, Caliari 0-1 (1-1 w/DWCS)

MVP MMA 1 Picks:

• Rousey

• Diaz

• Ngannou

• Parnasse

• JDS

• Nkuta

• Jackson

UFC Vegas 117 Picks:

• Allen

• Willycat Santos

• Wellmaker

• Bukauskas

• Cuamba

• Khaos the OX Fighter

• Tucos for Tokkos Puffs

• Gantt

• Vieira

• Brundage

• Viana

• Gurule

• Caliari

Plays:

• Rousey rd 1, 2, 3 -310 (7-U)

• Parlay: Caliari, Jackson, Parnasse, Ngannou KO, Rousey = +187 (1.2-U)

• N. Diaz +165 (.5-U), rd 3 +1800, rd 4 +2000, rd 5 +2200 (.17-U each)

• Bukauskas rd 2 +500 (.37-U), rd 3 +850 (.25-U)

• Tailing Matty Cycle: Jackson dec, Ngannou KO, Diaz sub = +1358 (.16-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Vieira dec +175, Diaz sub +425, Allen KO +325 = +6036 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Caliari ITD +350, Brundage KO/TKO/DQ +350, Cuamba-Sopaj split +350, Bukauskas rd 2 +500, Allen ITD +275 (.15-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.5-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +204931)

BETTING NOTES: I have another version of my main parlay that’s safer since my book didn’t have Jason Jackson lines up (basically did the same parlay above without him for -118). No atlernate round robins as I didn’t lay one. Really tried to stay off this UFC card as much as I can and my book also didn’t offer Bukauskas round props so I felt it wasn’t worth it. Good luck with whatever you’re on.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC 328 main event: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Main event thoughts:

The main event in New Jersey features a middleweight title fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland.

As usual, I highly suggest you check out the in-depth breakdowns I do over at MMAJunkie.com if you want more full-throated analysis for title fights and headliners alike.

But to my readers here (whom I greatly appreciate), I’ll do my best to keep things tight while still informative. As for this fight between Chimaev and Strickland, well… it could be trickier than meets the eye.

Aside from the usual analysis regarding ‘surviving Chimaev’s early storms,’ I suspect that the “bad blood” dynamic, coupled with the fact Chimaev has proven to be able to go five frames, makes forecasting totals for this fight difficult.

As we tend to see with ‘bad blood affairs,’ they tend to get stuck in tension mode more than often than not. And though Strickland has the stamina edge on paper, I’m not sure he’s a potent enough finisher to get enough done in whatever small windows Chimaev’s style affords him (lest we also not forget: Chimaev has been working with some of the most ‘notorious’ strength and conditioning teams in the game a la T.J. Dillashaw’s old Treigning Lab).

For me, this outcome ultimately comes down to how well Strickland can deal with Chimaev’s relentless spin cycle.

As seen and explained in the attached tweet above, Chimaev has one of the most reliable processes in MMA we’ve seen since Khabib Nurmagomedov (I know, I hate making that comparison too).

From what I’ve seen and otherwise gathered over the years, I can stand by the overly-used statement that Strickland’s grappling is underrated. However, despite Strickland having a solid awareness of hips and head position alike, he’s traditionally been ok with giving back exposure on getups given his confidence in scrambling and creating separations.

The potential problem, though, is that Chimaev is probably the last fighter on the UFC’s roster who you want to let in on any sort of rear-waist cinch (again, see the clip above).

For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly pick Chimaev to win a decision in a fight that I suspect is more competitive than most imagine.

Part of me will be rooting for my guy Eric Nicksick and the rest of the Xtreme Couture crew to help guide MMA’s Travis Bickle-Jack Burton amalgamation to a win, but I, of course, will once again put my bias aside (something that burns me more often than not, by the way).

UFC 328 co-main event: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event in Newark features a flyweight title fight between Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira.

Although it was very difficult to see Van take the title from Alexandre Pantoja in such ignominious fashion late last year, there’s no denying the skills that Van brings to the table.

As I break down further in both my in-depth technical breakdown over at MMAJunkie.com, as well as my betting breakdown over at Action Network (that I, again, highly encourage you to check out and share), Van is one of the most exciting action-fighting strikers in the sport today.

From consistent counters in combination to brutal body shots, Van’s style is appealing to hipster-ass hardcores and casuals alike.

Van also has good first-layer takedown defense and solid scrambling instincts to boot. That said, Van’s getup style can allow for some back exposure – which is the last thing you want to give up opposite someone like Taira.

Pantoja may still be a level above the division with his body of work in the back-take department, but Taira isn’t exactly super far behind. Taira’s defense in the pocket has been something I’ve critiqued before and is a place he definitely doesn’t want to get stuck in with a boxer like Van.

However, Taira does have a good feel for distance and has been steadily improving everything from his jab to stance fundamentals. Taira also has a knack for hitting counter crosses and switch kicks alike – two things that could be quietly potent opposite Van’s more wrestle-boxing archetype.

Lest we not forget, Van has been stunned or dropped in roughly half of his UFC fights thus far, as he’s not exactly impervious from a defensive standpoint either.

To Van’s credit, he hasn’t show any serious drop-offs in output opposite the few grapplers he’s faced. But I cringe at folks saying that Van has already proven himself in the grappling department due to passing by unproven prospects like Rei Tsuruya, who have a completey different and unique (though not necessarily effective or efficient) style of wrestling and grappling.

And none of this is to even mention the fact that Van still hasn’t even been fighting for five years yet as a pro. I know Taira isn’t much more experienced on paper, but the Japanese challenger’s path has made much more sense in my eyes.

Still, I supsect that Van’s style of output, counters and adjustments will make him the more potent party down the stretch – should the fight go long.

Despite betting on this bout, I wouldn’t dare discount either man in this equation, nor act like one of them is some sort of sure thing. But at the end of the day, I will be siding with the back-taking side of this equation (which is also the side that didn’t have to postpone the original fight date due to injury) in Taira.

I know Taira hasn’t proven to be on Pantoja’s level yet, but I still have to see Van against someone who can truly tax his scramble style and sometimes suspect decision making.

I targeted Taira’s “hot round” of Round 2 in my round robin, and will put some of his submission exposure in my Trixie Cycle. But the main play is on the money line due to the multiple pathways Taira can win on paper.

UFC 328 feature: Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley

Quick thoughts:

So, I realized that this format I have on here doesn’t allow me to pontificate on favorite plays I make. I guess it’s because I’m so used to having a weekly podcast to cover everything and then some, but without that I realize that I’m leaving a hole here.

And though Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley is a fight that would be covered a la my quick picks via MMAJunkie.com, those articles are only 5-7 sentences worth of analysis and don’t drop until fight day.

I also was lucky enough to have the opportunity to write about this fight a bit more in-depth over at Action Network, so I suggest checking out that link below for more analysis, stats and clips like the one linked above.

Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckely breakdown link

Basically, I believe that this is a bad style matchup for Buckley.

There’s a lot of talk about him training with Kamaru Usman, but Buckley was barely at Kill Cliff FC for 3 weeks this camp. I’ve been wrong about Buckley before, but the man is 32-years-old and has been fighting for 13 years – – I’m pretty sure he is who he is at this point (respectfully).

This is one of my more confident reads on the card so I hope you check my article linked above if you’re curious as to why. Let’s go, Fiwwee.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Affectionately referred to as “The Balding Bowling Ball,” Mateus Rebecki is always reliable for fun collisions.

And though Rebecki isn’t as reliable when it comes to winning, the Polish southpaw does offer some strong stylistic spoilers that could have play opposite Grant Dawson.

Grant Dawson’s Southpaw Report:

As seen in the clip attached above, both of Dawson’s knockout losses come opposite stance-switchers who fired lefts from southpaw. And if there is one thing you can count on Rebecki doing, it’s launching left hands from his Grandmother’s house.

Although I initially came into this fighting leaning and looking in Dawson’s direction, this tell feels like one of those classic “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood” memes where I’ll end up kicking myself if I ignore it and am proven right.

Rebecki is also an accoladed grappler both in and out of the gi, and – at least according to my guy Matty Betss – Dawson has admitted to not being able to submit Rebecki in the gym (as they both have trained at American Top Team).

However, with Rebecki’s propensity to wear damage worst than a boxer from the “Legends of the Ring” video game from the early 90s, I also believe that Dawson’s ground-and-pound will be live for a possible finish outcome as well. For that reason, I opted to take a shot on this fight not going the distance as opposed to a flier on the underdog.

Although I’m officially picking Bobby Green, I was this close to taking a flier on Jeremy Stephens.

The UFC’s junkyard dog who finally learned how to work his own chain, Stephens has always been down for scrap. However, with “Lil Heathen’ debuting all the way back when Chuck Liddell was still champion, it’s hard to know how much he has left at this point of his career (especially after that war he had with Mike Perry over in BKFC).

Nevertheless, I obviously like that Stephens changed up training scenery by working with Eric Nicksick and company here in my backyard of Xtreme Couture MMA. I’ll be happy for Stephens if he wins and believe that he can do so by knockout (as the only action I got on this fight is a Trixie Cycle leg for this fight to end by KO).

Speaking of biases, there is one bias I can’t seem to steer away from – and that’s Jim Fucking Miller.

One of my favorite all-time fighters and favorite MMA lightweight, Miller has been the highlight of the card for me for almost two decades now. In fact, I’m not sure there’s a walkout I get hyped up for more than some “Bad Moon Rising.”

That said, I’m also a huge Jared Gordon fan given the things he represents and the insane bad luck that always seems to befall him (something ole Dan Tom here can obviously relate to if you know anything about me). But I digress.

Gordon is ultimately the desreved favorite in this spot since he fits a lot of the bill of fighters who have troubled Miller in the past as far as his top game and boxing abilities go. However, I’m not sure Gordon can get too takedown happy given the looming Guillotine threats of Miller.

And though Gordon should be 2-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws if the judges properly adjudicated his fight with Nasrat Haqparast, “Haq,” to his credit, was able to fairly consistently catch Gordon with counter hooks and crosses (which was a trend that dates back to Gordon’s fight with southpaw Dan Moret).

I know I always cape for Miller’s striking ability, but the New Jersey native truly does have solid counter hooks and crosses that he regularly goes to. Miller is also quite accustom to fighting as an old man, whereas Gordon, who is nearly 38-years-old, has only recently adopted the dynamic of fighting into the latter stages of your career.

So yeah, outside of my clear and stated biases, there are also reasons for my Miller pick.

I actually think the money line should be wider in Gordon’s favor, so I ended up staying way from any straight plays on Miller-san. I did, however, throw his finish props in my round robin.

Lastly but not leastly is Roman Kopylov.

Despite Kopylov being a fighter that I seem to have a love-hate relationship with as far as picking him goes, I do believe that the Russian could have some quiet upside in this matchup.

Aside from the (small, granted) improvements that Kopylov has made in the grappling department due to his training camps in Dagestan, the Russian has done a bit better at pacing himself as his UFC career has progressed. But with both he and Marco “Tu-Tu-Tulio” coming off losses, I suspect that we will be in store for a classic lower-output affair that has some sort of controversy come scorecards time.

Southpaw stats for UFC 328:

• Sean Brady, who faces Joaquin Buckley, is officially 3-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Michael Chiesa, Kelvin Gastelum, Leon Edwards).

• Grant Dawson, who faces Mateusz Rebecki, is officially 0-0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws, drawing with Ricky Glenn (though both of Dawson’s UFC KO losses come to stance-switchers in Bobby Green and Manual Torres, who hit him with southpaw crosses).

• Jared Gordon, who faces Jim Miller, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Dan Moret; Losses: *Nasrat Haqparast).

• Marco Tulio, who faces Roman Kopylov, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (beating Ihor Potieria).

• Pat Sabatini, who faces William Gomis, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Clayton Carpenter, who faces Jose Ochoa, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (being Juan Camilo Ronderos).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Chimaev

• Taira

• Volkov

• Brady

• Green

• Gautier

• Amosov

• Rebecki

• Miller

• Kopylov

• Patty Sabs

• Susurkaev

• Ochoa

Plays:

• Taira -165 (1.65-U)

• Volkov -146 (1.46-U), by sub +2000 (.1-U)

• Brady pts/sub -135 (2.5-U)

• Sabatini pts/sub -175 (1.75-U)

• Amosov pts/sub -115 (1.15-U)

• Dawson-Rebecki DNGTD +100 (1-U)

• Dawson rd 2 +1300, rd 3 +1700 (.13-U each)

• Trixie cycle No. 1: Dawson-Rebecki ends KO +200, Volkov dec +125, Taira sub +175 = +1756 (.15-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .6-U total exposure)

• Trixie cycle No. 2: Susurkaev-Santos dec +150, Green-Stephens ends KO +125, Brady sub +300 = +2150 (.15-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for .6-U total exposure)

• Round Robin/long-shot parlay: Sabatini sub +200, Miller ITD +500, Amosov sub +450, Brady sub +300, Taira rd 2 +700 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +316700)

BETTING NOTES: (*EDIT: 5/9/26): Ended up adding Volkov after the mogging meme (it was a sign) and added a sprinkle on his sub prop. For my alternate round robin, I went with Ochoa rd 2 instead of Miller ITD and just settled for Taira sub instead of rd 2 given the big number Ochoa’s rd prop brings to the table (the rest same). And for alternate Trixie cycle No. 1, I went with Dawson-Rebecki doesn’t go the distance instead of ends by KO (the rest same). For alternate Trixie Cycle No. 2, I went with Susarkaev dec, Gautier KO, Brady sub. Let’s see if I can finally get some on-the-record bounces my way. Good luck.

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

In case you’re missing me doing regular podcasts or you just prefer audio/video mediums, I broke down some key fights on VB Picks’ YouTube channel, which you can view below:

UFC Pert main event: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

Main event thoughts:

The main event for UFC Fight Night 275 features a fight that gets me excited to my core.

As stated since Jack Della Maddalenna vs. Carlos Prates got announced, this booking might be MMA’s best current parallel to boxing’s legendary meeting between Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns.

I wrote about this fight much more in my usual in-depth breakdown via MMAJunkie, as I really put most of my writing calories there this week and strongly encourage you to read it and share (as it would really mean a lot to me).

That said, this fight does come down to a similar dynamic that decided the bout between Hagler and Hearns – at least for Della Maddalena.

A shorter southpaw-primary stance-switcher, Della Maddalena will be tasked with getting on the inside of a long and devastating puncher in Prates. The difference here being: Prates is a southpaw who will also have kicks, knees and elbows at his disposal.

When facing southpaw stances prior, Della Maddalena has shown a penchant for matching stances and working off his lead hand to draw out reactions.

I made a whole southpaw report for this/the entire card that you can view and share on TWITTER if you like since Elon’s milky ass has killed engagement for former legit blue check media accounts like mine:

The potential problem, however, is that matching stances with a muay Thai stylist like Prates could be a quick way to get yourself leg kicked (something we saw happen to Della Maddalena last time out opposite Islam Makhachev).

Although I’m always quick to state that no one hates fighting southpaws more than southpaws themselves, Prates appears to be a southpaw who truly comes to live when able to operate in closed-stance affairs.

Not only can Prates still find the liver and hit spinning assaults alike, but “The Nightmare” also showed a solid ability to target former champion’s Leon Edwards’ legs in his last outing (prior to putting him out off a stance switch).

Prates is undeniably a wood chipper to walk into, but I believe that Della Maddalena can win this fight if he can stick to the blueprint that Hagler had against Hearns.

Aside from being the superior combination puncher, Della Maddalena will also have ample opportunities to score in and out of the breaks (as well as anytime Prates gets lackadaisical with collar ties via hooks and uppercuts). That said, I’ll be picking the Hearns side of this equation.

I’m a huge Della Maddalena fan and wouldn’t mind being wrong here, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that the Aussie’s boxing-centric style has some semi-serious roadblocks in it when tasked to take on solid kickers. I also think that Prates is one of the few fighters who can offer Della Maddalena a taste of his own medicine as far as bodywork goes, so I’ll officially side with Prates to spark off a stoppage via a liver shot by Round 3.

I don’t really want to have exposure to this fight and instead want to enjoy it, but I may bless you over bettors with the under bet I’ve been tempted to fire on all week given that – if this is MMA’s Hagler-Hearns – it will likely be over in the first few rounds.

UFC Perth co-main event: Dariush vs. Salkilld

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night 275 features a potential crossroads fight at lightweight between Beneil Dariush and Quillan Salkilld.

Although it can feel like a funeral down under at first glance, this fight could be trickier than it’s “two true outcome” nature suggests.

Sure, the most likely outcome is for Salkilld to put Dariush into “WEEKEND AT BENNY’S” status a la the last southpaw he faced.

The problem, however, is that if an early and abrupt finish doesn’t materialize for Salkilld, I suspect that he’ll be in for a three-round war with a more experience and skilled fighter (particularly in the grappling department).

It could be easy for folks to forget that Dariush has been able to out-grapple some of the best MMA and Jiu-jitsu grapplers south of 170 pounds. Salkilld has some legit skills and smartly takes advantage of the opportunities that his frame affords him, but the Aussie has not shown the levels of depth to his game for me to be as confident in him to win as his betting line seems to be.

Salkilld certainly has some solid ideas on the feet, but he still needs to show the ability and process to be able to regularly enforce his game regardless of whether or not big moments reveal themself. I also haven’t like how Salkilld has looked in the few instances where someone actually was able to press him with strikes, as Salkilld seemed devoid of countering threats and instead opts to move straight back with his head on center.

Dariush is probably not the fighter to take advantage of these things (particularly in the striking) at this stage of his career, but the 36-year-old still has the hardwiring to return hard southpaw kicks and crosses and can reliably wrestle until he’s burger.

It’s not a confident pick as I’m not running out to bet anything big on Dariush, but I will officially pick him to win and put his money line/dec prop in my round robin for the value. I also may look at his “Decision only” line if I’m up by this point of the card.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

In card chock-full of underdogs from top to bottom, one of my favorites has to be Vince Morales.

Although he seems to be a popular dog this week, I feel like I’ve been singing Morales’ praises more than most lately given the quietly difficult context surrounding his recent string of losses in what is his second UFC stint.

Aside from being booked as the outright B-side opposite legit MMA prospects, Morales has also had to regularly travel into enemy territory on short notice. Morales thankfully had full notice for this fight, but the rest is a role that he’s more than used to at this point.

I think Morales’ opponent, Colby Thicknesse, is a solid grappler-fighter from Freestyle MMA (Alexander Volkanovski’s gym), but I have a sneaking suspicion that Thicknesse is closer to sparring partner than prospect, respectfully.

Aside from lacking the athleticism and ‘umph’ in his ability to explode and finish takedowns, Thicknesse appears to have a propensity to get stunned early in his fights that follows him back to the regional scene.

Morales may not be the craziest knockout puncher in world, but the Syndicate MMA team captain carries serious pop in his right hand and is not afraid to work the body or in combination anytime he can corral his opposition toward the fence. I also believe that Morales will be the better wrestler and more dangerous submission threat given his sick front-choke acumen.

Picking Morales to win by club-and-sub but could also see him getting a greasier-than-needed decision win on the scorecards.

Despite officially picking Steve Erceg to win, I believe that Tim Elliott is one of the more livelier underdogs on this card. That said, I’m unfortunately not the only one who thinks so, as Elliott’s initial opener has been bet down significantly (as it should).

But between the line no longer being that attractive to the volatility of the matchup, I decided to just pick the favorite and pass. I did put “fight ends by submission” in my official round robin given the value/opportunity to cash that on either side, and may look at Elliott’s “decision only” prop if I’m up and free-rolling by this point of the card.

Even though I’m officially picking the second coming of Mark “Chopper” Read in Brando Pericic, there’s no denying that this could be the perfect spot for “THE BIG MEAL” Shamil Gaziev to shit in the proverbial pie.

People usually mistake Gaziev for some “forged in the fires of Dagestan” wrestling champion just because he has a funny beard and can grapple, but the funny truth is that Gaziev comes from a volleyball background (I know, right).

Nevertheless, should Gaziev expose Pericic on the ground, than none of us should really be shocked.

I’m still going to pick Pericic given his size, aggression and what seems to be a natural fighting aptitude (which is not as prevalent as you’d think at heavyweight).

Even though this next pick will garner me a lot of guff (not that the majority of the MMA gambling space doesn’t already look at me like some kind of joke anyway), I have a hard time seeing Gerald Meerschaert as roughly a 9-1 underdog opposite Jacob Malkoun.

I mean, I thought I was Malkoun’s biggest fan prior to this booking – but now you have the streets flooded with people taking shitty plus money numbers on early Malkoun finishes (that’s right, MALKOUN FINISH PROPS) and acting like they have free money. LIKE WTF?! Lol.

I love Malkoun, but – aside from failing to finish a one-legged Torrez Finney last time out – Malkoun has to be the only “jiu-jitsu coach” in MMA to not own a single submission win on his record. And now that he’s facing the all-time submission and finish leader in the UFC middleweight history – NOW is the time where Malkoun’s a surefire finisher?!

Look, I agree that Meerschaert, aside from being slow as shit, is undeniably at the tail end of his career and can no longer sustain that damage that his style has traditionally invited up front. But that’s been against high-level hitters/finishers – and that’s not who Malkoun is.

Moreover, Malkoun has yet to face a true southpaw in his pro career and looked noticeably bad the last time he saw the stance a la a stance-switcher in Andre Petroski (who won the first round on all three judges’ scorecards before knocking himself out on Malkoun’s hip in round 2).

Meerschaert missing weight for the first time in his UFC career is sadly a bad sign that will only enforce an already-inflated narrative against him, but I’m gonna sack up and stand by my analysis here. Again: Malkoun is the rightful favorite and probably will win, but I believe this can easily play out way closer than how people are grossly and incorrectly characterizing this fight (not that that will stop the MMA gods from continuing to prove lazy analysis right, mind you).

The last dog I wanted to touch on was Don Mar Fan, who takes on Kody Steele.

Although I initially had higher hopes for Steele and little-to-no hopes for Fan, their recent performances have turned me around on both men (in different ways).

Steele, despite his claims to “fight smart" this time around, has consistently shown that has a hard time saying no to brawls and fun fights when they present themselves. Whereas Fan, whose lone losses on the regionals to Quillan Salkilld have aged well, is finding his confidence and flow as a well-rounded action fighter.

*EDIT (5/2): I OWE STEELE AN APOLOGY HERE AS I AM A FUCKING IDIOT WHICH OF COURSE IS NOTHING NEW. CARRY ON. Unless Steele can use his (with all due respect arguably overrated) grappling game to secure a submission, then I believe this is a competitive three-round war that goes to the cards. And there, I suspect that that more eye-catching and impactful striker will be Fan (especially given how Steele can sometimes wear damage).

I didn’t take a money line stab when it was at a better number because I prefer the points handicap play for Fan to get my night going.

Southpaw stats for UFC Perth:

• Jack Della Maddalena, who faces Carlos Prates, is officially 1-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Danny Roberts; Losses: Islam Makhachev).

• Carlos Prates, who faces Jack Della Maddalena, is officially 2-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Geoff Neal, Leon Edwards).

• Quillan Salkilld, who faces Beneil Dariush, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Nasrat Haqparast).

• Steve Erceg, who faces Tim Elliott, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Ode Osbourne).

• Jacob Malkoun, who faces Gerald Meerschaert, if officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level lefties (but did beat a stance-switching Andre Petroski, who knocked himself out on Malkoun’s hip after winning the first round with his own knockdown).

• Themba Gorimbo, who faces Jonathan Micallef, is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Takashi Sato).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Prates

• Dariush

• Erceg

• Rahiki

• Pericic (aka “Choppa”)

• Tuivasa

• Rowston

• Tafa

• GM3

• Morales

• Johnston

• Micallef

• Don Mar’s Fan

Plays:

• Parlay No. 1: Micallef/Schultz-Johnston U 1.5 = +138 (1.5-U)

• Morales +120 (1.5-U), by sub +650 (.3-U)

• Tuisvasa rds 1, 2 +110 (1.5-U)

• JDM-Prates U 3.5 -110 (1.10-U)

• Fan 3.5 pts -150 (1.5-U)

• GM3 3.5 pts +375 (.5-U)

• Rahiki rd 2 +330 (.33-U)

• Trixie Cycle No. 1: Steele-Fan dec -160, Micallef sub +175, Johnston KO +375 = +2022 (.2-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .8-U total exposure)

• Trixie Cycle No. 2: Fan dec +250, Micallef sub +175, Tuivasa rd 1 KO +225 = +3028 (.2-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .8-U total exposure)

• Round robin No. 1: Morales sub +605, GM3 ML +700, Tuivasa rd 1 KO +225, Erceg-Elliott ends sub +250, Dariush ML +360 (.17-U per 2-leg combo for a total exposure of 1.7-U on the RR, .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +313850)

*BETTING NOTES: As far as alternate round robin legs go, I’ll likely use Micallef rd 2 or Rahiki rd 2 instead of Erceg-Elliott ends sub for houses that don’t offer cheeky “ends by” prop legs. I’ll also consider Micallef dec/sub at -125 or Johnston ITD +100 adds if my early pts prop on Fan hits. Was also tempted to do something with Dariush by dec at +900 (and may still throw that in my alternate round robin) but I don’t want to get too cute in what’s already a crazy enough pick as is. I also like the “decision only” lines for Elliott and Dariush and may sprinkle on those if I'm up/they’re still available later. I also unofficially tailed Matty Betss’ cycle (which shares my sub leg but has GM3-Malkoun dec and Prates KO in it) and Trixie’d it small for just under .3-U total exposure. Good luck with whatever you end up on!

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

UFC Vegas 116 main event: Sterling vs. Zalal

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Las Vegas features a showdown between Top 10 featherweights, Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal.

If you’re looking for a more technical breakdown on this fight, I wrote an in-depth breakdown over at MMAJunkie that’s full of stylistic info, video clips, etc.

But as far as sides and bets go, I decided to back Sterling.

Although both fighters recent wins are somewhat suspect given who and when they happened, I ultimately believe that the smaller octagon will favor Sterling from a stylistic standpoint.

Not only does Zalal have a propensity to play along the outside near the fence (where Sterling secures his best takedowns from), but “The Moroccan Devil” has a hardwired habit of exposing his back during scrambles. I know we haven’t seen Sterling put a stamp on things with his classic rear chokes in some time, but the action the Apex encourages, as well as the overall context of this fight, certainly calls for it.

I do suspect that Sterling will put the proverbial pack down very hard if he’s not able to submit Zalal by the end of round 3, which is why I also sprinkled on an uncharacteristic Under at plus money that’s listed below. Honestly hoping that I do well enough that the result on this main event won’t matter, which is why I’m leaving it out of the Round Robin.

UFC Vegas 116 co-main event: Dumont vs. Edwards

Co-main event thoughts:

There’s “the people’s main event,'“ and then there’s the Sir Mix-A-Lot main event…

Kind of hard to believe that this is the co-main event, but both Norma Dumont and Joselyn Edwards deserve some respect for their recent runs.

Dumont, who might hold the most impressive UFC Apex record in the organization at 7-0, is arguably due for a shot at the abysmal women’s bantamweight title. That said, Edwards, aside from being the only girl who can hold a candle to Dumont’s tremendous dumper, is also one of the more threatening finishers that the Brazilian has faced in a minute.

However, as cool as it would be to see Edwards’ work in my backyard of Xtreme Couture continue to pay off, I’m not too optimistic in how her opportunistic sensibilities line up with Dumont’s neutralizing style.

Between deciding to avoid chalky parlays to the fact that WMMA split decisions aren’t available to me, I ended up not touching this fight (in what will likely be another decision win for Dumont).

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

This card has a decent amount of live underdogs depending on your perspective, but none I’m more passionate about than Raoni Barcelos.

I opted to do a more in-depth write-up for this fight over at Action Network, but anyone who knows me knows that – not only do I have a weird thing for backing old Brazilian dogs – but also that Montel Jackson is atop my canaries in a coal mine when it comes to aging long and lanky fighters who continually cut down to lower weight classes at a point of diminishing returns (e.g. Andre Ewell, Brandon Royval, Sean O’Malley, etc.).

MMA bettors get themselves tumescent when talking about the hand size and perceived athleticism of Jackson, but the hailed ‘Olympic hopeful’ has arguable underperformed in both the wrestling and fighting department as a whole.

Between Jackson’s low activity and susceptibility to being thwarted by wrestling (despite it being his base), his win condition has basically been opportunistic knockdowns and knockouts that are fueled by athleticism (as I’m pretty sure Jackson ranked with both myself and Connor Ruebusch as far as our Top 5 Athletic Cheaters in MMA go).

So, yes, the “and we learned nothing” outcome of a quick first-round finish by “Quik” Jackson is certainly and sadly on the table here. But if Jackson fails to find the perfect shot, than I believe that Barcelos – who currently stands perfect at 3-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws – will win the day via superior striking output and wrestling.

You can get even better prices by looking at Barcelos rd 3/decision, but I’d caution getting too cute with a solid plus money side as I genuinely think Barcelos could finish this in round 2 as well. I took ITD for my official round robin given the price but will also use Barcelos by decision for the decision leg of my Trixie Cycle.

Lets just hope the old man can stay alive long enough to take Jackson to school.

Even though I initially came into this week looking to pick and parlay Julia Polastri, I quickly pumped the breaks after focusing on the tape of Talita Alencar and ignoring the outside noise.

Polastri, who is clearly the darling to MMA gamblers and incels alike, is the side that’s so popular that it might be polluting people’s senses of ‘sure things,’ particularly when we’re talking women’s MMA here.

Alencar stepped on to the scene with a bad impression by gassing out in a draw (and losing the subsequent rematch Stephanie Luciano), but it’s important to remember that Luciano is no slouch and that was only Alencar’s 4th fight as she’s been learning on the job.

Alencar also appears to be one of those Dricus-coded fighters who can look really gassed but then go on to immediately score their best moments of the fight, as Alencar did, to her credit, so some steady improvements to her striking and legitimately rock Ariane Carnelossi. But at the end of the day Alencar is one of the most decorated BJJ world champs in any of the UFC women’s divisions, and this is the smaller octagon we’re talking about here (as siding with the superior grapplers in the small cage is some of my most tried and true analysis).

Polastri is fun and will certainly have opportunities to finish late if she can survive the early scares on the mat (which is why I sprinkled on her round 3 prop), but she’s unranked in jiu-jitsu and has yet to face a credible submission fighter in her career.

So, are we really gonna be surprised to see “the new hotnesss” hyped up female fighter that’s dating her coach fall short as a favorite? In this sport? In these divisions?

Yeah. Tale as old as time.

And underrating short stalky grapplers in WMMA is also a tale as old as time (albeit a profitable one if you smartly picked your spots on fighters like Carla Esparza and Jessica Andrade throughout their careers). I don’t think Alencar will be a world champion like the previously mentioned, but she’s being criminally undervalued in this spot.

Played her points handicap and sprinkled on the sub/put it in the round robin for pure value at upwards of +900.

The last official underdog I picked (but didn’t play), is Max Griffin.

This, akin to picking and playing dog-turned-favorite Davey Grant, is a show-me spot for the Contender Series freshman (whom I usually look to fade off wins, much less this weird trend where we’re getting these guys off of losses now).

As far as dogs that are live but I have no interest in playing, I also gotta shout Sedriques Dumas, who is somehow still with the promotion despite giving Charles Bennett’s “Felony” nickname a run for it’s money.

McVey, despite seeming like a fun guy with his impressions, seems to lack in the durability and grappling department. If Dumas wasn’t fighting as suspect as his wrap sheet suggests, then I’d pick him here to grapple and win from topside. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if this is the fight on the card that surprises everyone by going the distance; and with seeing Dumas by dec at +900?

Shiiiiiitttt. I’d be lying to you if I said that I wasn’t tempted.

Southpaw stats for UFC Vegas 116:

• Raoni Barcelos, who faces Montel Jackson, is officially 3-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Dan Moret, Trevin Jones, Carlos Hauchin).

• Rodolfo Vieira, who faces Eric McConjugal, is officially 0-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Losses: Chris Curtis, Bo Nickal).

• Sedriques Dumas, who faces Jackson McVey, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Michal Oleksiejczuk).

Apex records for UFC Vegas 116:

• Sterling 2-0 (3-1 in UFC small cages), Zalal 5-2

• Dumont 7-0, Edwards 2-2

• Garcia 3-3, Hernandez 4-3

• Grant 2-2 (3-3 in UFC small cages), Martinetti 0-0 (1-0 w/DWCS)

• Barcelos 3-2 (4-2 in UFC small cages), Jackson 4-0 (5-0 w/DWCS)

• Buchecha 0-0-1, Spann 2-5 (3-6)

• Vieira 4-3, McConjugal 1-0

• Dumas 0-3 (1-3 w/DWCS), McVey 0-1

• Sheetara 4-2-2 (5-2-2 w/DWCS), Montague 0-0

• Filho 1-1 (2-1 w/DWCS), Durden 5-4-1

• Marshall 1-2 (2-2 w/DWCS), Brennan 0-0

• Griffin 4-1, Valenzuela 0-0 (0-1 w/DWCS)

• Alencar 3-1 (3-1-1 w/DWCS), Polastri 1-1 (2-2 w/DWCS)

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

UFC Vegas 116 Picks:

• Sterling

• Dumont

• Hernandez

• Daiyvee Graunt

• Barcelos

• Buchecha

• Vieira

• McVey

• Montague

• Filho

• Marshall

• Griffin

• Alencar

Plays:

• Sterling +140 (1-U), Sterling-Zalal Under 4.5 +165 (.6-U)

• Hernandez -132 (1.32-U)

• Grant -125 (1.25-U)

• Barcelos +158 (1-U)

• Filho by sub +110 (1-U), rd 1 sub +240 (.5-U), rd 2 sub +500 (.37-U)

• Alencar 3.5 pts -110 (1.10-U), by sub +1000 (.17-U)

• Polastri rd 3 +1400 (.17-U)

• Montague rd 3 +1000 (.17-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Filho sub, Barcelos dec, Hernandez-Garcia ends KO = +1948 (.2-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .8-U total exposure)

• Round robin No. 1: Alencar +220, Montague ITD +175, Buchecha sub +150 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for .51-U total exposure)

• Round robin No. 2: Alencar sub +900, Filho rd 2 +350, Monatgue rd 2 +600, Barcelos ITD +600, Grant-Martinelli ends in split +375 (.17-U per 2-leg combo for a total exposure of 1.7-U on the RR, .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +1047275)

*BETTING NOTES: For alternate round robin legs in houses that don’t offer cheeky split or ITD props, I’ll probably end up swapping Barcelos ITD with his dec prop more exposure on that end and will likely use Hernandez by KO instead of Grant-Martinelli split for my alternate round robin. Really rolling hard with proven products and superior grapplers in small cages as that’s generally done well for me on these cards. Good luck on whatever you end up on!

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

And if you miss hearing my voice/want to help support me and those adjacent to me, feel free to check out (and leave a nice comment) on this week’s Anik & Florian podcast, as Jon and Kenny were kind enough to invite me on as a guest to break down this week’s card.

UFC Winnipeg main event: Burns vs. Malott

Main event thoughts:

The main event for UFC Winnipeg features a welterweight showdown between Gilbert Burns and Mike Malott.

Despite not disagreeing with Malott being favored, I can’t help but feel that the betting lines and common narratives are a bit inflated for this spot.

I know that Burns is nearly 40 years old and facing a 4-fight skid, but recency bias and incomplete context could be clouding the perception of this fight.

Sure, Burns is still yet to beat anyone in their athletic prime since moving up to welterweight, but how prime is Malott at 34 years of age and 15 professional years of fighting?

Don’t get me wrong: We’ve seen Burns crumble against solid counter punchers in the past and Malott putting “Durinho” down early is probably the most likely outcome on paper.

However, even though Burns lacks the size parity and straight punches that has troubled Malott in the past, I suspect that the Brazilian’s grappling and pressure can pay dividends if he’s able to avoid the bulk of Malott’s opportunism early.

Even when Mallot has fighters stunned into retreating, the Canadian has a bad habit of both giving back and giving away prime cage positioning with his propensity to reset and stage offense on the outside between the fence and inner-black octagon lines.

I also don’t like the fact that Malott doesn’t jab as much as his style calls for (something that could really serve him well considering that jabs represent a decent part of the pie as far as strikes that have dropped Burns go).

Lastly, I didn’t like how Malott looked in extended grappling exchanges with Neil Magny, as Malott appeared to have very little answers for Magny’s Demian Maia-style wrestle-ups from half-guard. Should Malott get into extended grappling scenarios with Burns (who I suspect is also the better wrestler), then “Proper” Mike could find himself in a proper pile of shit come Saturday.

I took Burns 5.5 pts handicap prop earlier in the week when it was +200 and fired on his money lines North of +250 in my houses that don’t offer those cheeky props. I also sprinkled on Burns’ late round props pre-flop given the stupid numbers and value should this fight extend.

UFC Winnipeg co-main event: Phillips vs. Jourdain

Co-main event thoughts:

The co-main event for UFC Winnipeg features a potential banger at bantamweight between Kyler Phillips and Charles Jourdain.

Despite having a terrible history of picking and betting on Charles Jourdain, I find myself leaning toward him here.

Phillips comes from the best fight camp in the MMA Lab for fighters in the orbit of 135 pounds, but Phillips’ problems and stylistic dynamic alike is more than well known at this point of his career.

Phillips will always start fights strong and win the first frame, but the American can’t seem to keep up the pace he sets as, even in victory, Phillips will often find himself hanging on for life in Round 3.

Whereas Jourdain, despite not getting as many late finishes as I would’ve expected, is a fighter who traditionally builds as the fight wears on.

Jourdain also has low-key one of the most dangerous guillotines in the UFC (currently tied for second all-time with Charles Oliveira), which will be an important tool to combat the reactive shots that Phillips uses to give himself breathing room in fights.

After Shakiel Mahjouri (who has quietly been the low-key shinning spot of UFC’s move to Paramount/CBS for me) told Jourdain that he was one away from being tied for the most guillotine chokes in UFC history, the Canadian lit up like a kid on Christmas Day as he stated his determination to crush that record from here on out (which means submission/guillotine exact method props for Jourdain will be auto-bets for me going forward).

Because of the fact that I at least know Jourdain will also be looking for it and keeping club-and-subs in mind, I may use him to replace Alan Nascimento in my cycle for my submission leg. And though I’ll have this fight to go to split decision in my official round robin, I’ll likely use Jourdain’s sub prop in my alternate round robin for houses the don’t offer cheeky split props.

Either way, I just hope he wins as I felt Jourdain at -150 was playable chalk and I fired away accordingly.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

Although there’s not a lot of likable or trustworthy underdogs on this card, the theme of backing fighters I usually don’t continues with Thiago Moises.

Despite Moises’ opponent, Gauge Young, making my prospects to watch column for MMAJunkie circa 2024, the American still hasn’t exactly shown his potential since signing on with the UFC (as I fear Young could be the classic case of a fighter with real potential getting rushed into the big leagues too early).

Moises is usually a fighter I fade (particularly against southpaws as an auto-fade), but I’m not sure Young has proven that he has elite enough grappling or striking to confidently or consistently wash out a veteran like Moises.

In fact, Young has shown to struggle against even lower-level journeyman gatekeepers on the regional scene like Bobby Lee (who submitted him); though, to be fair, losses like these are actually somewhat normal at this stage of Young’s young career.

I believe that the oddsmakers were correct in opening Moises as the favorite, which means that the value is undeniably on the Brazilian, whom I suspect makes this look a lot like his fight with Alex Hernandez (the only other time I’ve bet on Moises, mind you).

I also threw Moises in a 3-leg money line round robin after his odds got even juicier, pairing him with short favorites like Croden and fellow underdogs like J.J. Aldrich.

Speaking of which, Aldrich is also an underdog I got pegged going into this weekend.

Despite Aldrich’s opponent, Jamie-Lyn Horth, doing me nicely last time out (sorry, ‘Phrasing’ again), the Canadian’s last two losses come opposite southpaws. And although Horth is still officially .500 against UFC-level lefties at 2-2, her victories were narrowly-fought split decisions against low-level ladies who barely have a single UFC win between them.

Aldrich’s unassuming Max from “Stranger Things” look always seems to be earning her disrespect from the oddsmakers and public alike, so I’ll once again back the undervalued fighter. Aldrich’s 3.5 pts handicap prop was inflated to high heaven (even more than I suspected when initially tipping it on this week’s Anik & Florian Podcast), but I still want to add it out of principle and will likely take whatever winnings (god willing) I can get from this weekend’s CFFC card (info on that below) and throw the extra ammunition on said points prop.

Although I haven’t managed to confidently fire or find an angle I like for Taaaaaanner Booooeeeeeezzzzer, I couldn’t help but take a flier on him as my official pick here. I worry about the fact that Gokhan Saricam is a better wrestler who has been more active alongside solid training partners, but the Turkish fighter’s ground game isn’t exactly “game over” level as I suspect that Boser can get up and make this fight close via his superior activity and experience.

Boser’s inactivity and lack of serious-looking training partners does worry me, but Boser is the pick as his decision prop at +275 is also under consideration to fill my alternate round robin slot now that Nascimento is off the card.

*another audio drop for The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast faithful:

Lastly as far as closing underdogs go, I decided to officially pick Julien Leblanc to beat Robert Valentin.

There’s very little confidence in this pick as I’ll be staying away from this fight, but I didn’t think Leblanc was as horrendous as folks have been making him out to be when going back to watch the tape (especially in comparison to the low bar that is Valentin).

In fact, I thought Leblanc’s southpaw striking looked a lot more reliable than the more wilder approach of Valentin (who is technically 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties).

I’m also on John Castaneda, who is no longer an underdog opposite Mark Vologdin (who I loved coming off Contender Series but in no way should be favored over the constantly underrated Castaneda). I may also consider Castaneda by sub to replace the Nascimento sub leg I originally wanted for my round robin and cycle alike.

And though Darya Zhelezniakova also appears to be taking money as an underdog, I couldn’t help but feel strongly about backing Melissa Croden after watching the tape.

Croden starts stupidly slow and will likely get lit up by Zhelezniakova’s strikes early, but Croden has proven to be a builder who has no issue taking it (Dan…) in order to give it right back ten fold (as her fight with Jacqueline Cavalcanti provided some encouraging signs despite it being a loss).

Croden is also the superior ground fighter as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt and has spent this past camp in my backyard of Xtreme Couture MMA training with quality women and training partners alike (whereas Zhelezniakova is with a smaller group that lacks bodies to work with as it looks like a tale as old as time as far style over substance camps for popular WMMA fighters go).

Add in the fact that Zhelezniakova looks to be a classic front-runner who appears to implode in record time anytime the fight hits the floor, and I can’t help but back Croden and fire on her ITD and rd 2 and 3 props at plus money.

Despite officially picking Jamie Siraj, I believe that John Yannis is much more lively than his odds and resume indicate. Aside from Yannis looking a little better than some people characterize, Siraj has had serious health issues and hasn’t officially fought at bantamweight since 2019.

Add in the fact that this is a short-notice booking, and I have no interest in putting money or confidence anywhere near that fight.

Finally, despite officially picking Marcio Barbosa, I believe that Dennis Buzukja is an inherently live dog should this fight get out of the first frame. Aside from Buzukja being the more proven product on the big stage, Barbosa has seldom been outside of the first frame as fights start to get sketchy when they do.

Clear dog or pass/live bet look from a betting perspective.

Southpaw stats for UFC Winnipeg:

• Jamie-Lyn Horth, who faces J.J. Aldrich, is officially 2-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Ivana Petrovic, Hailey Cowan; Losses: Miranda Maverick, Veronica Hardy).

• Robert Valnetin, who faces Julien Leblanc, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to Ryan Loder).

• Jamie Siraj, who faces John Yannis, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

UFC Winnipeg Picks:

• Burns

• Jourdain

• Nallo

• Jasudavicius

• Moises

• Barbosa

• Leblanc

• Boser

• Croden

• Aldrich

• Castaneda

• Siraj

UFC Winnipeg Plays:

• Jourdain -150 (1.5-U), by Guillotine +650 (.17-U)

• Castaneda -125 (1.25-U)

• Moises +110 (1-U)

• Burns 5.5 pts +200 (1-U), rd 3 +2000, rd 4 +2800, rd 5 +3500 (.17-U each)

• Action Network play: Nallo ITD +100 (1-U)

• Croden ITD +280 (1-U), rd 2 +850 (.25-U), rd 3 +2200 (.17-U)

• Trixie Cycle: Castaneda sub, Aldrich dec, Nallo KO = +4368 (.15-U exposure for each 2-legger, plus a 3-leg parlay at .15-U for .6-U total exposure)

• Round robin No.1: Aldrich +135, Croden -150, Moises +125 (.33-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for .99-U total exposure)

• Round Robin No. 2/long-shot parlay: Castaneda ITD +275, Croden ITD +275, Nallo-Herbert ends by split +650, Phillips-Jourdain ends in split +375, Burns ITD +350 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +225339)

CFFC 153 Picks:

• Seibert

• Bubalaidze

• Berger

• Dilemme

• Morgan

• Montalvo

CFFC 153 Plays:

• Parlay: Montalvo, Dilemme, Berger, Bubalaidze = -130 (1.3-U)

• Montalvo -160 (1.6-U)

• Morgan +170 (1-U)

• Seibert -200 (1.5-U)

CFFC 153 BETTING NOTES: Apologies for the lack of up-to-the-minute bet posting on my end, as it’s been a busy week here and can be tough keeping up to date with multiple events and lines given how fast regional stuff moves. Been 3-0 so far betting CFFC events this yr but this is the 1st tracked card so let’s see if I can keep the streak going lol. *EDIT (4/17): Looks like parlays opened up so I added the one I initially targeted (ableit at much shittier odds). I wanted to do my usual parlay (that I usually get limited on), but this week my book isn’t even allowing that, so I just went with straight plays on playable lines with fighters whom should be the superior grapplers.

UFC WINNIPEG BETTING NOTES: As far as alternate round robin legs go, I’ll likely sub out Castaneda ITD with Boser by dec so I have something on the ole Bulldozer. Instead of Croden ITD I’ll opt for the sexier rd 2 option. Instead of Nallo-Herbert split I’ll “choose Parker” with the Nallo KO prop. I’ll do the same with my Phillips-Jourdain split prop and just go Jourdain sub and will lastly just swap Burns’ ITD prop with Burns’ ML despite it continuing to crash. May add Aldrich pts prop (as well as possibly Boser’s pts prop later) depending how my CFFC plays shake out. GL with whatever you end up on! *EDIT (4/18): I did the alternate parlay as laid out prior, but Castaneda props weren’t out at my book so I opted for Moises as my alternate sub cycle leg. And despite going PERFECT in CFFC plays the pts props are still a bit too chalky so I just added another half U to my Croden ITD play at +280 (also took her in a fun untracked parlay w/Moises-Young DGTD and Burns-Malott ends KO for +1159).

Thank you for subscribing and welcome to “Fluid Thoughts.”

Basically, these articles will offer my raw, unpolished thoughts on the upcoming card so that fight nerds and gamblers alike can see where I’m headed in an effort to spark your own thoughts and strategies regarding the festivities to come (to which you’re more then welcome to discuss with me or others in the comments below).

*Just understand that this is a ‘fluid’ article that will be edited throughout the week, so don’t take opinions here straight to the bank and be sure to check back to see my final thoughts – which will be locked in by Friday evening before officially posting picks and plays on Saturday morning.

In case you’re missing me doing regular podcasts or you just prefer audio/video mediums, I broke down the entire card with old friend Feno on The Fight Site Presents Youtube channel, which you can view below:

UFC 327 main event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg

Main event thoughts:

The main event in Miami features a vacant title fight at light heavyweight between former champ Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg.

Although it’s hard to ignore Alex Pereira’s shadow looming over the division, this should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts.

I wrote about this fight more in depth in my breakdown over at MMAJunkie.com for those interested in a deeper dive, but the basic dynamic of this fight is a fairly clear one: Will Prochazka’s pressure prevail against Ulberg? Or will Prochazka’s pressure get him pummeled coming in?

Although I see Prochazka’s new-found tactic of launching southpaw crosses off slips having success against Ulberg (as even Fabio Cherant was able to land those with regularity), I still find it difficult to ignore the self-proclaimed samurai’s defensive holes.

As I’ve stated in previous Prochazka breakdowns, he eats his fair share of left-sided strikes due to his propensity to heavily dip and crouch from an orthodox stance. This is why I have traditionally picked southpaws or fighters with heavy left hooks like Alex Pereira to beat him in the past.

Not only has Ulberg spent a decent amount of his career imitating “Poatan” Pereira for Israel Adesanya, but Ulberg also has an underrated ground game that could rear it’s head if Prochazka comes in too hot.

Left-sided strikes are a potent two-way street, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Ulberg to land a devastating counter by the end of Round 2. But between the volatility of this fight and the fact that I kinda would love to see Prochazka win, I’ll likely be staying completely away from a betting perspective.

That said, if you like Prochazka, I’d probably look at his hot rounds of 2, 3, 4 pre-flop and keep an eye on his live line if this fight makes it past the halfway point of Round 1.

UFC 327 co-main event: Murzakanov vs. Costa

Co-main event thoughts:

With Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira falling off this card, the impromptu co-main event for UFC 327 will instead be a light heavyweight showdown between Azamat Murzakanov and Paulo Costa.

I’ve been fairly accurate calling Costa’s fights for the past few years, and I cashed nicely on his money line, points handicap and decision prop in his last outing opposite Roman Kopylov. However, despite that tidbit or the fact that Costa is officially 6-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws, I still find myself taking a strong stance on the other side.

I’m happy to announce that I’m back with the Action Network and wrote a more in-depth breakdown there for those interested (as well as go in-depth with my guy Feno in the audio podcast linked above). But as far as why I’m bullish on Murzakanov, well—he basically has been a money train for those backing him.

More importantly, Murzkanov is an incredibly well-schooled southpaw who will be bringing power, speed and savvy that Costa has yet to see in any of his previous southpaw samples.

Murzakanov may not have an insane output from a statistical perspective and can sometimes offer suspect optics as far as his stamina goes, but Costa’s more conservative pacing and lack of his patent pressuring game will likely keep the Russian in comfortable fencing fighting conditions.

Add in the fact that Costa is openly saying that pressuring is the wrong thing to do to Murzakanov, and I can’t help but be even more confident in pulling what is ultimately a chalky trigger.

Between still waiting/getting stiffed on other parlay options to the fact that I always put my money where my mouth is on the public plays in my write-ups, I probably have too much exposure on this fight. But with the current prices in conjunction with the stylistic battle at play, it’s a pick a side and ride from a betting perspective.

Live underdogs I’m looking at:

Quick thoughts:

In a card full of live underdogs, MarQel Mederos is somewhat surprisingly one of the dogs I feel best about.

I definitely don’t mean to discount Chris Padilla (who I cashed on nicely last time out), but I believe that a consistent bodyworker and leg kicker who takes angles like Mederos could be stylistic kryptonite for the heavy-footed, high-guard approach of Padilla.

Padilla is an opportunist who can make Mederos pay for his sometimes-lackadaisical transitions off the breaks and in scrambles, but “Taco” isn’t exactly the type to repeatedly force said situations. For that reason, I suspect that Mederos will be able to pile points and attritional damage in a competitive fight that will likely be decided by Mederos’ minutes vs. Padilla’s potentially big moments.

I’ve been able to escape my usual bad beats in these scenarios as of late, but I’ll still be looking to throw my usual split-decision insurance in the form of round robin legs once lines finally drop at my preferred house.

Next up as far as underdogs to make my slate goes is Esteban Ribovics.

Although I suggested waiting for live bet opportunities on Rivobics after Gamrot likely gets a takedown in round 1, there’s never a guarantee that you’ll get good numbers or opps to play for a plethora of reasons. And between me having plans during the day to the fact that Ribovics’ money line got up to +165, I felt compelled to fire a shot pre-flop (as it also balances out my betting structure for straight plays given that I’m now on 2 dogs and 2 favorites).

I’m still a believer that Ribovics is destined to cash some round 3 props so I played it straight up and will be looking to repeat the success I had last week when I put Ethan Ewing rd 3 in a round robin that paid out BIG (though, if we’re being honest, I should probably be using another split decision prop here as potential insurance).

Although it’s far from a popular pick, I officially went with Josh Hokit to upset Curtis Blaydes.

Despite being a big fan of Blaydes and hoping he wins, I have to be honest as an analyst and do my best to ignore biases and outside of the octagon noise that doesn’t serve me or my process. And when doing that, well… I can’t deny that I’ve had high hopes for Hokit’s skill set since covering live on the regional scene at a local LFA show.

More specifically, I supsect that Hokit’s speed, athleticism and wrestling/scrambling ability will allow him to pull ahead of the more proven and powerful product in Blaydes.

I hate both the betting lines and the fact that they even made this fight, but one of my favorite bets on this card is the fight ending by KO (which I was able to find as low as -135 at places like Boyd Gaming). I’ll also be targeting “fight ends in round 2” as a round robin leg.

Even though I officially copped out and once again picked Aaron Pico as a moderate favorite, there’s no denying that Patricio “Pitbull” Freire isn’t a live underdog from a betting perspective.

Sure, Freire may be deep into the winter of his career at 38 years of age, but the Brazilian still packs the powerful counters that have traditionally been kryptonite for Pico and his suspect staying power. It’s a dog or pass spot, as Freire/Freire inside the distance could be alternate round robin legs.

Southpaw stats for UFC 326:

• Paulo Costa, who faces Azamat Murzakanov, is officially 6-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Garreth McClellan, Oluwale Bamgbose, Yoel Romero, Johny Hendricks, Luke Rockhold, Roman Kopylov; Losses: Marvin Vettori).

• Johnny Walker, who faces Dominick Reyes, is officially 2-4-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Khalil Rountree Jr., Misha Cirkunov; Losses: Wagner Prado, Klidson Abreu, Jamahal Hill, Magomed Ankalaev; No Contest: Magomed Ankalaev).

• Lupita Godinez, who faces Tatiana Suarez, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (but did lose to Luana Carolina, who is a orthodox fighter who primarily fought Godinez as a southpaw).

• Vicente Luque, who faces Kelvin Gastelum, is officially 4-3 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Jailin Turner, Bryan Barberena, Michael Chiesa, Rafael dos Anjos; Losses: Leon Edwards, Geoff Neal, Joaquin Buckley).

Locked in picks and plays (so far):

Picks:

• Ulberg

• Murzakanov

• Hokit

• Reyes

• Swanson

• Pico

• Brown

• Ribovics

• Suarez

• Mederos

• Gastelum

• Radtke

Plays:

• Parlay No. 1: Mederos-Taco O 2.5, Murzakanov = +121 (1.5-U)

• Parlay No. 2: Gastelum, Walker-Reyes DGTD, Jiri-Ulberg DGTD = +100 (1.5-U)

• Action Network play: Murzakanov pts/KO -185 (1.85-U)

• Mederos +155 (1-U)

• Suarez -150 (1.5-U)

• Brown -125 (1.5-U)

• Ribovics +165 (1-U), rd 3 +1600 (.17-U)

• Gastelum rd 1, 2 +220 (.5-U)

• Murzakanov rd 2 +800 (.25-U)

• Blaydes-Hokit ends by KO -135 (1.5-U)

• Brown-Holland pt deduction +2000 (.1-U)

• Cycle/Trixie round robin: Mederos dec, Holland-Brown ends sub, Pitbull-Pico ends KO = +2242 (.17-U exposure on parlay and 2-legger combos at .68-U total exposure)

• Round robin No. 1: Mederos +135, Suarez -150, Hokit +115 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for .51-U total exposure)

• Round Robin No. 2/long-shot parlay: Mederos-Padilla split +550, Gamrot-Ribovics split +325, Holland-Brown ends by sub +300, Swanson KO +275, Blaydes-Hokit ends rd 2 +300 (.17-U exposure for each 2-leg round robin combo play for 1.7-U exposure total plus .01-U exposure on long-shot parlay at +165650)

BETTING NOTES: *EDIT (4/10): I ended up taking Swanson by KO and the split prop options in my official round robin but will definitely be using sexier lines like Ribovics rd 3, Brown sub and Murzakanov rd 2 in my alternate round robin as the sportsbook I frequent here in Vegas doesn’t allow for cheeky props like split decisions anyway. I also steered away from further Murzakanov/Mederos-Padilla exposure with the parlay and Gastelum play I added. Good luck with whatever you end up on!

I'm still waiting for totals and props for the Mederos-Padilla fight to drop in the house that allows me prop parlays and round robins, as I’m eyeing that fight to end by split as a round robin leg. I also was curious what Mederos-Padilla O 2.5 looks like when paired up with Gastelum ML and Prochazka-Ulberg not going the distance in the secondary parlay. As far as other round robin legs go, I’ll be looking at Ribovics split prop/Ribovics rd 3, Brown by sub/Brown-Holland ends by sub, Hokit-Blaydes ends rd 2 and Murzakanov rd 2 or decision. Pitbull/Pitbull inside the distance also has value, and so does Swanson KO if you’re looking for legs in the +275 neighborhood.