<![CDATA[Dave’s Newsletter]]>https://davethewave.substack.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!j0lV!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc25167d9-de3c-4015-9e38-f9b9697bb733_184x184.pngDave’s Newsletterhttps://davethewave.substack.comSubstackFri, 04 Sep 2026 18:19:37 GMT<![CDATA[BTC and the Technical Movement of Price]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-and-the-technical-movement-ofhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-and-the-technical-movement-ofTue, 01 Sep 2026 21:32:34 GMTDear Readers,

Recent Move Up

We saw quite the move indeed right after the previous article a fortnight back. A large move upward meeting the fib extension target that had been drawn… and more, to meet resistance at a significant level. Can price move further upward here and now? While always possible, an alternative to this and still bullish is the possib…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC Basing Range on the Monthly Chart]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-basing-range-on-the-monthly-charthttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-basing-range-on-the-monthly-chartWed, 19 Aug 2026 02:17:44 GMTDear Readers,

Time and Resistance

Comparison of Downward Diagonals of Resistance

As far as technical analysis and the seeking of patterns go, the current chart has to be of interest for those bullish on Bitcoin as a long term asset [or currency]…. and of course for those that have been following the Logarithmic Growth Curve model.

To begin with a comparison…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC Price Update]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-price-updatehttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-price-updateWed, 05 Aug 2026 01:01:21 GMTDear Readers,

Shorter-Term

Current Multi-Month Range

Currently, we find price action in a multi-month 10K range between 57 and 67K.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[The Constant of Time]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-constant-of-timehttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-constant-of-timeFri, 17 Jul 2026 00:33:55 GMTDear Readers,

The 12 Month Correction

Comparison of 12 Month Corrections

As posted recently on X, the one constant [admittedly from a small sample size] is the one year correction. And the culmination of that time period is currently only 3 months away [October]. Part and parcel of the ‘4 year cycle’, this has to remain the go to default position in that p…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Crunch Time for the Logarithmic Growth Curve]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/crunch-time-for-the-logarthmic-growthhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/crunch-time-for-the-logarthmic-growthFri, 03 Jul 2026 02:18:19 GMTDear Readers,

Monthly chart of BTC atop the LGC

The price of Bitcoin is now on, or very near, the Logarithmic Growth Curve [LGC]. Since the drawing of this curve back in 2018, it has been thoroughly tested twice before - first in March 2020, and again in November 2022.

This time round, near 4 years later since 2022, price is 3.5x higher while similarily t…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC and MACD Updates]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-and-macd-updateshttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-and-macd-updatesTue, 16 Jun 2026 00:54:04 GMTDear Readers,

As many are no doubt familiar, short term price continues to strengthen on the bounce after the recent sell-off while also observing the technical projection as sketched on the chart some days ago now.

Price is currently situated right in the middle of the LGC ‘buy zone’ that has been on the chart, and performed well since 2018, near a decad…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[The Stabilization of Price]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-stabilization-of-pricehttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-stabilization-of-priceTue, 02 Jun 2026 02:57:56 GMTDear Readers,

One look at the chart and there is a striking indisputable fact, that of reducing macro volatility, or in other words, the increasing stabilization of price. I’d also suggest another near indisputable fact, or if not a fact a performing theory [since 2018]- that price will develop along the lines of a logarithmic growth curve that has been …

Read more

]]><![CDATA[The Arguments for the Bottoming Base In]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-arguments-for-the-bottoming-basehttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-arguments-for-the-bottoming-baseMon, 18 May 2026 03:12:08 GMT

Dear Readers,

Long-Term BTC Chart

On looking at the long-term chart, it seems the only constant is time - that one year macro correction on previous cycles. Given the repeating pattern, it makes sense to use it as the working hypothesis. Currently we are in the seventh month of twelve with price looking relatively strong. What was a negative in the past […

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC Update]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-update-ecdhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-update-ecdMon, 04 May 2026 01:53:48 GMTDear Readers,

BTC Daily Chart

With price now pushing multi-month highs since the January capitulation, the market looks to be warming up… even as sentiment is still very low, sentiment always being a lagging indicator.

Technically, the road looks open for a move to that shorter-term target of 95K with shorter-term horizontal and longer-term diagonal resis…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Weekly MACD Cross and Bullish Ascending Triangle]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/weekly-macd-cross-and-bullish-ascendinghttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/weekly-macd-cross-and-bullish-ascendingThu, 16 Apr 2026 02:34:15 GMTDear Readers,

Longer-Term Chart

First of, a general zoomed out overview of price. The weekly MACD has re-crossed well below the zero-line signaling a turnaround in momentum. Price is still just in the LGC ‘buy zone’ signaling a macro buy for late investors looking for exposure. Price also shows a near 38% real correction of the cyclical move up. The overa…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC: Mapping Out the Correction]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-mapping-out-the-correctionhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-mapping-out-the-correctionThu, 02 Apr 2026 00:32:29 GMTDear Readers,

Time drags inexorably along, and here we are now already into the 2nd quarter of the year. Factoring in a year-long correction, given previous macro corrections, that would leave 2 more quarters for BTC to build its basing range.

Daily Chart

The chart shows price still facing headwinds with it below major lines of resistance. That said it is…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC and the MACDs]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-and-the-macdshttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-and-the-macdsWed, 18 Mar 2026 21:32:04 GMTDear Readers,

I thought it was about time that the MACDs were reviewed on all time frames in order to further orientate us as to where price might be positioned in the greater scheme of things. Markets show patterns, and a study of this momentum indicator on various timeframes can help with the identification of those patterns.

Daily MACD

Daily MACD

First …

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Sentiment in the Dumps; Price in the 'Buy Zone']]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/sentiment-in-the-dumps-price-in-thehttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/sentiment-in-the-dumps-price-in-theTue, 03 Mar 2026 00:23:40 GMTDear Readers,

As we can see by the chart, there is good reason to think the worst of the correction is behind us. That said, this does not mean to say there it will not be lengthier, or that prices will not go lower. But those lower prices are likely to stay within the buy zone [and remain tolerable] according to the LGC model that has performed well sin…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[The LGC Channel Revisited]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-lgc-channel-revisitedhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-lgc-channel-revisitedTue, 17 Feb 2026 06:48:19 GMTDear Readers,

This article will be a more general big picture one looking at the LGC [Logarithmic Growth Curve] and in particular the LGC channel that sits atop of it. The aim will be both to explain why price has not run to the top of the channel, and in turn to predict what prices will do in the next cyclical bull market [previous articles have focused…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC: Back to the 70s]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-back-to-the-70shttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-back-to-the-70sMon, 02 Feb 2026 01:07:02 GMTDear Readers,

And as half-expected [the risk covered in the previous article], there is the second move down into the 70K range. This was a risk the trader [even of cycles] and the more recent buyer had to be aware of. As for the investor, I do not think it is at all problematic. It can even perhaps be seen as a positive in that price is becoming less e…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[New Year, New Move Up in BTC?]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/new-year-new-move-up-in-btchttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/new-year-new-move-up-in-btcThu, 15 Jan 2026 23:52:12 GMTDear Readers,

First of, with the first newsletter of 2026, Happy New Year to all! And it does seem a happier one for us Bitcoiners - after a multi-month correction, we now have printed on the chart a multi-month basing pattern. Price has held up well after the 4th quarter correction that panned out instead of the 4th quarter fireworks. One positive of th…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC: Shorter and Longer-Term Overview]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-shorter-and-longer-term-overviewhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-shorter-and-longer-term-overviewMon, 15 Dec 2025 22:58:33 GMTDear Readers,

This fortnight I thought I’d look at both the shorter and longer-term charts of BTC as they are both in an interesting spot at the moment. The aim is to show that even though the shorter-term volatility continues to disappoint the expectations of many, the price action remains consistent with a bullish outlook for BTC in the longer-term.

Sho…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[BTC: Expect the Unexpected]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-expect-the-unexpectedhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/btc-expect-the-unexpectedTue, 02 Dec 2025 00:19:12 GMTDear Readers,

I thought first an overview of the macro development in price [multi-year] might be helpful for in turn asking how price will develop going forward in what now looks to be the corrective phase. The main idea will be to show that just as previously price did the unexpected to what was expected by the mass of participants, so too price is lik…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[The Tipping Point from the Technical Perspective]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-tipping-point-from-the-technicalhttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/the-tipping-point-from-the-technicalMon, 17 Nov 2025 21:01:19 GMTDear Readers,

The Leadership Seesaw - Lead Change

From recent developments in price, I think it fair to say that, in the shorter to medium-term, the tipping point from a bullish outlook to a bearish one has been reached. This outlook I’ve described as a process with various levels to be met as per the ‘DEFCON System’ in a few recent articles. It should also be a process as per a spectrum, …

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Bitcoin and Longer-Term MACDs]]>https://davethewave.substack.com/p/bitcoin-and-longer-term-macdshttps://davethewave.substack.com/p/bitcoin-and-longer-term-macdsMon, 03 Nov 2025 20:29:38 GMTOver a coffee this morning, my niece asked me about Bitcoin. A few years back at a Christmas party, at the peak prices of 2021, her and her partner had naturally also asked about Bitcoin. My advice back then was to wait and buy the buyzone [suggesting 20K USD]… explaining the below logarithmic growth curve channel. This they did… though they decided to …

Read more

]]>