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Beyond the Noise, August 30th, 2026

Well, so much for a quiet Labor Day weekend.

As I write this Sunday evening, U.S. stock futures are lower, oil is higher, and the war with Iran is once again front and center.

The United States carried out new strikes against Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran subsequently launching missiles toward U.S. sites in Jordan. Oil immediately moved higher as traders once again contemplated the risk surrounding one of the most important energy corridors in the world.

If you’re looking for reasons to be nervous about the stock market Monday morning, you don’t have to look very hard.

But that’s exactly when I find it useful to do something remarkably old-fashioned.

Look at the chart.

The Bull Trend Is Still the Bull Trend

That’s the S&P 500 through Friday’s close.

And despite everything happening in the world, the FMT trend indicator remains:

Bull Established / Bear None.

Price is above the 50-day moving average.

Price is comfortably above the 200-day moving average.

The Ichimoku cloud remains bullish.

The longer-term moving averages remain properly aligned.

And after pulling back from the August highs, the S&P found support and began moving higher again late last week.

None of that guarantees what happens Monday.

It doesn’t tell us that Iran doesn’t matter.

It doesn’t tell us oil doesn’t matter.

And it certainly doesn’t mean the market can’t change direction.

It simply tells us something important:

It hasn’t changed direction yet.

That’s a distinction traders sometimes forget.

We can spend Sunday evening constructing an impressive list of reasons the market should go down.

Or we can wait until the market actually tells us it is going down.

I prefer the second approach.

Venezuela Just Changed the Oil Equation

There was another enormous story late last week that could eventually matter every bit as much as the latest Iran headlines.

The United States announced an agreement involving the development of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan proven oil reserves across 17 fields.

That’s not a typo.

65 billion barrels.

The agreement contemplates enormous private investment and eventually significantly higher Venezuelan production. The administration also says Venezuelan oil will be used to replenish the badly depleted U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Does that solve the Iran problem?

No.

Does it suddenly replace oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz?

Absolutely not.

Venezuela may possess extraordinary reserves, but years of underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure mean you don’t simply turn a valve Monday morning and put another million barrels a day onto the world market. Meaningful production increases will require time and a lot of money.

But strategically?

It opens another door.

And that matters.

For months, Iran’s ability to disrupt oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz has been one of its most important pieces of economic leverage. The more alternative supply the United States and its allies can develop—and the more flexibility the U.S. has around its own strategic reserves—the less powerful that leverage potentially becomes over time.

That doesn’t make the current situation less dangerous.

In fact, the renewed military activity this weekend demonstrates exactly the opposite.

But markets don’t only price what is happening today.

They also price options.

And the Venezuela agreement potentially creates a very large one.

Meanwhile, Look What’s Moving Back Up the Board

This is where things get especially interesting to me.

Last week I wrote about the remarkable rotation taking place underneath the major indexes.

That rotation hasn’t stopped.

But look at what is beginning to happen.

Cybersecurity: +9.71% over five days

Software Cloud: +6.49%

Energy Services: +2.88%

And then there’s one I’m watching particularly closely:

AI Hardware & Infrastructure.

Its five-day relative strength has turned positive again.

Not dramatically.

Just +0.42%.

But look at the progression:

Two-month return: -6.32%

One-month return: +1.58%

Five-day return: +0.42%

That’s not enough for me to declare that AI infrastructure leadership has returned.

But it is enough to put it back on the watch list.

This is exactly why relative strength is useful.

I don’t need to guess which sector is going to become the next market leader.

I can wait for the money to start moving—and then look for confirmation.

And We May Get Confirmation This Week

The bulk of earnings season is behind us, but there are still a few reports this week that are unusually relevant to that AI Infrastructure question.

Dell reports Tuesday.

Broadcom reports Wednesday.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports Wednesday.

Snowflake also reports Wednesday, giving us another read on enterprise AI/cloud spending.

Broadcom in particular will be worth watching because of its exposure to AI networking and infrastructure.

Again, I’m less interested in whether a company “beats estimates” than I am in what investors do with the information.

Does good news get bought?

Does bad news get shrugged off?

Do AI Infrastructure stocks begin moving up the relative-strength rankings?

That’s confirmation.

And that’s much more useful to me than trying to predict the earnings number.

Don’t Sleep Through Friday

There are several economic reports scattered throughout the week, including ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP employment, jobless claims and ISM services.

But the main event arrives Friday morning:

The August employment report.

Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment will give the market another important piece of evidence about the strength of the economy—and potentially the direction of Federal Reserve policy.

So we have plenty of ingredients for volatility this week:

Iran.

Oil.

Venezuela.

AI earnings.

Manufacturing.

Employment.

The Fed.

In other words...

There will be plenty of noise.

What I’m Watching

But my list remains considerably simpler.

Is the S&P 500 still in an established bullish trend?

Does last week’s support hold?

Does AI Hardware & Infrastructure continue improving?

Does Cybersecurity maintain its leadership?

Does Software Cloud continue outperforming?

What happens to Energy as the market digests both Iran and Venezuela?

And perhaps most importantly:

Where does the money move after the headlines hit?

Because the market doesn’t owe us an explanation.

It doesn’t have to respond to Iran the way we think it should.

It doesn’t have to respond to the employment report the way economists expect.

It doesn’t have to respond to an earnings beat by going up.

Our job isn’t to tell the market what it should do.

Our job is to recognize what it is doing.

That’s what we’ll be watching this week.

Want to See the Trades We’re Finding?

There’s another way to follow what we’re seeing in this market.

FMT Picks takes the same process I write about here—trend, sector strength, individual setups, risk and reward—and turns it into actual trade ideas.

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We just wrapped up another strong week, adding to already excellent year-to-date results.

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The early response has been extremely positive.

The goal isn’t to give you more information.

There’s already too much information.

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No need to predict Iran.

No need to guess what the Fed will do.

No need to chase every financial headline that flashes across your screen.

We’ll keep doing what we do:

Find the trend.
Find where the money is moving.
Find the trade.
Define the risk.

And keep the winners bigger than the losers.

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If you thought we might finally get through a week without tariffs dominating the financial headlines, apparently not.

This time, it’s Canada.

After trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada broke down late last week, the United States imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian exports. Canada responded by announcing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods beginning September 8.

So...

More tariffs, eh?

There are legitimate economic consequences to all of this. Canada isn’t some distant trading partner. The U.S. and Canadian economies are deeply intertwined, with supply chains that cross the border in both directions.

There will undoubtedly be plenty of analysis this week about who wins, who loses, what gets more expensive, and what happens next.

I don’t know.

And neither does anyone else.

Fortunately, as traders, we don’t need to predict the next move in a trade negotiation.

We need to watch what the money does.

Something Interesting Is Happening Under the Surface

Take a look at the latest FMT Sector Tracker.

The broad FMT Index gained just 1.18% over the past five trading days.

Nothing particularly remarkable about that.

But look underneath the index.

Biotech: +13.44%

Precious Metals: +10.39%

Meanwhile:

AI Hardware & Infrastructure: -5.97%

Defense & Aerospace: -5.22%

Regional Banks: -4.50%

Energy Services: -3.04%

That’s a nearly 20-percentage-point spread between the strongest and weakest sectors in just five trading days.

That’s not a quiet market.

That’s a market with money moving rapidly from one place to another.

And the movement becomes even more interesting when we zoom out.

Biotech is up 23.20% over the past month.

Precious Metals is up 30.65%.

Software Cloud, despite cooling recently, is still up 27.95%.

At the other end of the table, some groups that had been attracting plenty of investor attention aren’t participating nearly as well.

This is why I spend so much time looking at sectors.

The Index Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

Now look at the S&P 500.

From a trend perspective, there isn’t anything particularly alarming here.

The FMT trend indicator still shows:

Bull Established / Bear None.

Price remains above the 50-day moving average.

Price remains well above the 200-day moving average.

The cloud remains bullish.

The longer-term trend is intact.

If all we looked at was the S&P 500, we might conclude:

“Market is still bullish. Nothing much to see here.”

But there is quite a bit to see here.

The market isn’t necessarily getting weaker. It may be changing horses.

That distinction matters.

Indexes can remain relatively calm while enormous changes take place underneath them.

Money doesn’t simply move into or out of “the stock market.”

It moves between stocks.

Between industries.

Between sectors.

And sometimes those rotations happen surprisingly fast.

That’s what we’re seeing right now.

Follow the Money, Not the Headlines

This is also a good example of why I try not to spend too much time predicting what a headline should mean for the market.

Tariffs are bad.

Except when the market goes up.

Higher interest rates are bad.

Except when the market goes up.

A strong economy is good.

Except when investors decide it’s inflationary.

A weak economy is bad.

Except when investors decide it means lower interest rates are coming.

You can drive yourself crazy trying to construct the perfect explanation.

Price cuts through much of that noise.

Right now price is telling us something fairly clear:

The broad bull trend remains intact, but leadership is changing rapidly underneath it.

That’s useful information.

And we’re about to get considerably more.

A Big Week Ahead

This coming week brings several potentially significant market events.

Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday. Given Nvidia’s size and its role at the center of the AI investment story, this isn’t simply another earnings report. It will be an important test of investor appetite for a part of the market that has recently been losing relative strength.

We also get the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE.

Then Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage at Jackson Hole on Friday, with investors looking for clues about the future path of monetary policy. Nvidia and Jackson Hole are being viewed as important tests of two assumptions that have helped support the market: continued AI-driven earnings growth and the outlook for interest rates.

And, just for good measure, we now have another U.S.-Canada trade fight thrown into the mix.

There will be no shortage of headlines.

There will be predictions.

There will be people explaining exactly what Nvidia’s earnings mean, exactly what the PCE number means, and exactly what every sentence in Warsh’s speech means.

Some of them will even be right.

What I’m Watching

I’m much more interested in what happens after the news.

Does money return to AI Hardware?

Does Biotech continue its remarkable run?

Do Precious Metals continue outperforming?

Do defensive areas begin attracting more capital?

Does the S&P hold its established bullish trend?

And perhaps most importantly:

Does this rapid sector rotation broaden the bull market — or eventually begin to weaken it?

We don’t know yet.

That’s okay.

We don’t have to predict it.

We’ll watch price.

We’ll watch trend.

We’ll watch relative strength.

And we’ll watch where the money goes. That’s where the signal is.

Because while everyone else is watching the headlines...

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Not just a trade that didn’t work.

I mean the one you knew you shouldn’t have made — or the one you knew you should have gotten out of, but didn’t.

Maybe you chased a stock after it had already run.

Maybe you took a position that was too large.

Maybe you ignored your stop.

Maybe you averaged down because you were convinced it would come back.

Or maybe a perfectly manageable loss simply turned into a very large one because there wasn’t a clear plan for what to do when the trade went against you.

Now ask yourself a question:

What would it have been worth to avoid that trade — or manage it correctly?

For many traders, the answer is thousands of dollars.

I’ve worked with a lot of traders over the years, and one pattern comes up again and again.

The biggest damage usually isn’t caused by a lack of indicators, stock ideas, market information, or some secret trading technique.

It’s caused by a breakdown in process.

• A poor setup gets rationalized.

• Risk gets ignored.

• Position size gets too large.

• A stop gets moved.

• A losing trade becomes an investment.

• Emotion takes over from the plan.

And once that happens, a trade that should have been an ordinary loss can become something much more damaging.

Losing Trades Aren’t the Problem

This is an important distinction.

You’re going to have losing trades.

I certainly do.

Every trader does.

The objective isn’t to eliminate losses. That’s impossible.

The objective is to keep ordinary losses ordinary — and prevent one bad decision from doing disproportionate damage to your account.

That’s a very different way of thinking about trading.

You don’t need every trade to work.

You don’t even need most of your trades to work.

You need a repeatable process that helps you identify favorable opportunities, control your risk when you’re wrong, and take advantage of the opportunities when you’re right.

And once you control the downside, profitability has a much better chance to take care of itself.

That’s What the FMT Trading Framework Is About

This is a big part of what we’ll address in the Master Trader Boot Camp – FMT Trading Framework.

This isn’t about finding some magical indicator that suddenly makes every trade a winner.

It’s about learning and applying a framework for making better decisions:

Before the trade.

During the trade.

And when the trade doesn’t do what you expected.

We’ll work on identifying opportunities, understanding the broader market and sector environment, evaluating risk, sizing positions, managing trades, and knowing when the evidence says it’s time to get out.

And we won’t just talk about it in a classroom.

You’ll have a weekly 1:1 session with me where we can apply the framework directly to your trading.

What Is One Avoidable Big Loss Worth?

That’s the question I’d like you to think about.

The Master Trader Boot Camp is $2,997, or three payments of $999.

If what you learn during these six weeks prevents just one avoidable big loss, the program may have paid for itself.

And once you control the downside, profitability has a much better chance to take care of itself.

And you don’t stop using the framework when the six weeks are over.

Master Trader Boot Camp begins Wednesday, August 26.

✓ Six weeks of small-group lessons
✓ Weekly 1:1 sessions with me
✓ Full access to the FMT Tool Suite for one year
✓ FMT picks and alerts for one year

$2,997 or three payments of $999

Enroll/Find Out More

Find Out More

Trading Hasn’t Gotten Easier. The Process Can.

The market doesn’t owe us certainty.

It never has.

Every trade we take has an unknown outcome. A great setup can lose. A mediocre setup can win. And occasionally, a genuinely bad decision gets rewarded.

That last one may be the most dangerous.

Because a bad decision that makes money can teach us exactly the wrong lesson.

I’ve spent a lot of time over the years thinking about what separates traders who become consistently better from traders who seem to repeat the same cycle:

Find a trade.

Take the trade.

Hope it works.

React to whatever happens next.

And then do it all over again.

I don’t think the answer is predicting the market better.

I think the answer is having a better process for making decisions when the outcome is uncertain.

That’s the idea behind the FMT Trading Framework.

You Don’t Have to Win Most of the Time

Here’s something that surprises a lot of traders.

Through August, only 42% of our completed FMT trades in 2026 have been winners.

Our average winner, however, has been 2.38 times the size of our average loser.

On our $100,000 model account, risking $2,000 per trade, those 55 completed trades have produced $45,407 in net profit year-to-date.

That’s not because we figured out how to eliminate losing trades.

We haven’t.

Nobody has.

It’s because the objective is different:

Big winners. Small losers.

That’s asymmetry.

And once you really understand that concept, it changes how you think about trading.

The question stops being:

“Is this trade going to win?”

And becomes:

“Is this an opportunity worth taking, how much am I willing to lose if I’m wrong, and how much room am I willing to give it if I’m right?”

Those are questions we can actually answer.

The Opportunities Keep Moving

There’s another lesson in our results this year.

Look at where some of our largest winners have come from:

That’s a pretty diverse list.

And think about the market we’ve traded through in 2026.

We had a flat first quarter. War with Iran. An enormous AI-chip rally. Then massive capital rotation away from chips and software. Sector leadership has repeatedly shifted.

This hasn’t exactly been an “everything goes up” market.

Yet opportunities kept appearing.

The opportunities move. The framework doesn’t.

That’s why I often say:

We follow the money—not the headlines.

The Framework Is Simple. Applying It Isn’t Always.

At its core, the process isn’t terribly complicated.

We understand the overall market environment.

We scan for opportunity.

We qualify what we find.

We execute with a defined plan and controlled risk.

We manage the trade.

And then we review what happened.

Market → Scan → Qualify → Execute → Manage → Review.

The challenge is doing it consistently while real money is on the line.

That’s where trading gets hard.

Fear gets involved.

Greed gets involved.

A stock starts moving without us.

A position moves against us.

A winner pulls back.

The market suddenly changes character.

And the nice, logical process we intended to follow can disappear remarkably quickly.

So I’ve Been Building Better Tools

Over the past several months, I’ve been working on something that I’m pretty excited about.

I’ve built an entire suite of tools around the FMT Trading Framework:

• An Overall Market Dashboard to help understand the environment.

• A Market Heatmap to quickly see what’s moving.

• Relative Strength tools to see where money is flowing.

• An Open Trades & Watchlist Dashboard.

• A consolidated Thinkorswim indicator to make chart analysis faster and more consistent.

• And most recently, FMT AI Trade Coach, which can help apply the Framework to trade analysis, risk and trade management 24/7.

The important distinction is this:

The tools don’t replace the process.

They make the process easier to apply.

And that led me to something else.

Master Trader Boot Camp - The FMT Framework

For six weeks, we’re going to combine the FMT Trading Framework + live markets + the FMT Tool Suite + individual coaching.

The new Master Trader Boot Camp includes:

Six live small-group sessions.

Six private 1:1 sessions with me.

One year of the complete FMT Tool Suite.

One year of FMT Picks, Alerts & Updates.

We’ll work through reading charts, risk and asymmetry, finding opportunities, options, putting the complete Framework together, and advanced techniques.

But perhaps more importantly, the private sessions let us work on your trading.

Your charts.

Your trades.

Your questions.

Your process.

Your sticking points.

The investment is $2,997, or three payments of $999.

And we’re starting Wednesday, August 26 at 9:00 AM Pacific / Noon Eastern.

Enroll Now — Start Now

You don’t need to wait until August 26.

As soon as you enroll, we’ll schedule your first private session.

We can get your trading platform and FMT indicators configured, get you access to the tools, talk about your current trading, and identify what you most want to improve.

If you’re not already an FMT Picks subscriber, you’ll also immediately start receiving the current trades, alerts and updates.

So when the first group session begins, you’re already set up and ready to work.

Find Out More

And if you’re interested but aren’t sure whether the program is right for you, I’m happy to talk.

I’ve opened some 15-minute spots on my calendar this week.

Book a Short Discussion With Me

Trading hasn’t gotten easier.

I don’t think it ever will.

But we can get better at making decisions when the outcome is uncertain.

And ultimately, that’s the part we can control.

—Dean

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Beyond the Noise 8/16/2026

The Market Keeps Climbing the Wall of Worry

Iran remains unresolved, sector leadership keeps changing, and the bulls keep doing what bulls do.

There are plenty of reasons this market could be going down.

It just isn’t.

The war with Iran continues. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted. Oil prices remain elevated. Inflation is still a concern. And sector leadership continues to change almost faster than investors can develop a narrative to explain it.

Yet the S&P 500 just completed its third consecutive winning week and remains near record highs.

Sometimes the most important thing the market tells us is also the simplest:

Watch what it does, not what you think it should do.

The Trend Is Hard to Argue With

Take a look at the S&P 500.

The index finished the week near 7,786.

More importantly, the technical structure remains decisively bullish.

SPX is above its 50-day moving average, well above its 200-day moving average, and above our trend cloud. Our proprietary trend indicators currently show:

Bull Established / Bear None.

That doesn’t mean stocks can’t pull back.

It doesn’t mean geopolitical risk has disappeared.

And it certainly doesn’t mean we should become complacent.

It simply means that, based on the evidence we have today, the primary market trend remains bullish.

That’s the starting point.

Everything else has to be considered in that context.

Iran Isn’t Going Away

Last week I described the market’s reaction to Iran as something of a Groundhog Day effect.

Iran headline.

Hormuz headline.

Negotiations are progressing.

Negotiations aren’t progressing.

Oil moves.

Stocks react.

Repeat.

This week, however, the underlying situation deserves continued attention.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically. Reuters reported that only five commodity vessels passed through the strait Saturday and none Sunday, compared with 31 the previous weekend. Negotiations between the United States and Iran also remain stalled.

That is not insignificant.

The Strait of Hormuz has historically carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. A prolonged disruption has obvious implications for energy prices, transportation costs and potentially inflation.

And yet, despite all of that, the stock market remains near its highs.

That’s what makes the current environment so interesting.

The question isn’t whether Iran matters.

Of course it matters.

The better question for investors is:

What is the market actually doing with the information?

So far, the answer is: absorbing it remarkably well.

That can change.

If it does, we’ll see the evidence.

Sector Rotation Is Still Anyone’s Guess

If the broad market trend looks straightforward, what’s happening underneath the surface is anything but.

Our Relative Strength Dashboard continues to show rapid rotation.

Look at AI Hardware Infrastructure.

It’s still down more than 10% over two months, but it’s up 4.7% over the past month and 3.4% in just the past five trading days.

Fintech Payments, which had recently fallen out of favor, is suddenly at the top of our short-term rankings.

Energy Services and Energy Majors have moved back toward the top, not particularly surprising given what’s happening with oil.

Meanwhile, some of the recent leaders are cooling.

Software Cloud is up more than 31% over two months and 21% over one month — but gained less than 1% over the past five days.

Precious Metals, which was one of our strongest short-term groups last week, was essentially flat.

And Industrial Metals dropped nearly 4%.

That’s quite a bit of movement in a very short period.

If you’re trying to predict which sector will lead next week based upon a compelling macroeconomic story, good luck.

Fortunately, we don’t have to predict it.

The whole purpose of relative-strength analysis is to let the market show us where money is moving.

When leadership changes, we change with it.

A Relatively Quiet Economic Calendar

Compared with last week’s inflation reports, this week’s scheduled economic calendar is fairly light.

We’ll get housing starts and building permits Tuesday, along with industrial production and capacity utilization.

Thursday brings weekly unemployment claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

And Friday brings the flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports.

But the event likely to attract the most attention comes Wednesday:

The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

As always, Wall Street will parse every sentence looking for clues about where monetary policy goes next.

There’s one important caveat.

Minutes tell us what Fed officials were thinking at the time of the meeting.

Markets have received additional inflation, employment, energy and geopolitical information since then.

So the minutes matter.

But perhaps not as much as Thursday afternoon’s headline will inevitably suggest.

Earnings Season Changes Gears

The giant technology earnings reports may largely be behind us.

But earnings season isn’t finished.

This week we get something arguably just as interesting:

A checkup on the American consumer.

Home Depot reports Tuesday.

Target and Lowe’s report Wednesday.

Walmart reports Thursday.

Reuters identifies U.S. retail earnings as one of the major market themes for the coming week, particularly as consumers deal with higher fuel costs and continued geopolitical uncertainty.

These companies give us several different windows into consumer behavior.

Walmart can tell us about everyday spending and whether consumers continue trading down looking for value.

Target provides a somewhat different look at discretionary spending.

And Home Depot and Lowe’s give us insight into housing-related spending, remodeling and larger discretionary purchases.

One earnings report doesn’t tell us much about the economy.

Taken together, however, these companies can provide an interesting snapshot of how consumers are behaving.

I’ll be watching what management teams say about the next few months at least as closely as the earnings numbers themselves.

Plenty of Reasons to Worry. Very Little Evidence to Panic.

That’s really where we enter the new week.

Iran remains a legitimate geopolitical and economic risk.

Oil remains elevated.

The Fed remains data dependent.

Sector leadership remains frustratingly unpredictable.

And we’re about to hear directly from some of America’s largest retailers about the condition of the consumer.

There are plenty of things that could derail this market.

But that’s different from saying they have derailed it.

Right now:

The broad market trend remains bullish.

SPX remains near record highs.

Sector rotation remains rapid and unpredictable.

Iran and Hormuz remain the biggest unscheduled catalysts.

And this week’s retail earnings should give us a useful look at the consumer.

If those facts change, we’ll change with them.

Until then, I’m not particularly interested in constructing a bearish forecast simply because I can make a convincing argument for one.

Price is evidence.

And right now, the evidence continues to favor the bulls.

Which brings us back to the principle behind everything we do at Follow Me Trades:

We don’t predict the market. We prepare for it.

Join Us Inside FMT Framework

If you’d like to see how we identify changing sector leadership and individual stocks showing evidence of institutional accumulation, I’d love to have you join us inside FMT Framework Stock & Option Picks.

You’ll receive our current portfolio, trade ideas, live market sessions, and the same Relative Strength tools and proprietary scans we use every day to follow institutional money.

Try it for just $37 for your first 30 days, backed by our 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee. After that, it’s $97 per month, and you can cancel anytime.

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Beyond the Noise 8/9/2026

If this week’s financial headlines feel strangely familiar, you’re not imagining it.

Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz.

Talks may be progressing.

Talks may not be progressing.

Oil reacts.

Stocks react.

Then another headline comes along and we do it all over again.

At some point, markets begin to develop headline fatigue.

And I think we’re seeing some of that now.

Iran Is Still Important — But Is It Still Moving the Market?

The Strait of Hormuz remains a legitimate economic issue. There is still no final agreement, and reports about negotiations continue to conflict. Reuters reported progress in discussions last week while also noting significant disagreement over what an eventual arrangement would actually look like.

Yet look at where the market is.

The S&P 500 finished the week near its highs.

Despite weeks of Iran headlines, oil volatility, tariff concerns and shifting expectations about interest rates, SPX has pushed decisively back above its 50-day moving average and remains well above its 200-day moving average.

Our trend indicators have returned to a strongly bullish configuration.

That’s important.

Markets don’t ignore geopolitical risk forever. But they do tend to discount information that they’ve already heard repeatedly.

The first Iran headline can move markets dramatically.

The 47th variation of essentially the same headline?

Maybe not so much.

That’s the Groundhog Day effect we’re beginning to see.

Under the Surface, Rotation Is Still Messy

The index looks strong.

Sector leadership is much less straightforward.

Our Relative Strength Dashboard illustrates the problem nicely.

Precious Metals currently sits at the top of the five-day rankings, up more than 15% over the past five trading days.

Cybersecurity remains strong.

Software Cloud continues to perform well.

But one of the most interesting moves is AI Hardware Infrastructure.

It’s still down nearly 9% over two months and more than 5% over one month — yet it gained almost 7% over the past five days.

That’s rotation happening in real time.

Meanwhile, areas including Fintech, Regional Banks and Energy Majors have slipped toward the bottom of the short-term rankings.

There isn’t a simple story like:

“Technology is leading.”

or:

“Defensives are taking over.”

Instead, money continues to move between increasingly narrow pockets of the market.

That makes predicting tomorrow’s winning sector difficult.

Fortunately, we don’t have to.

We can watch where institutional money is actually flowing and respond when the evidence changes.

This Week, Inflation May Matter More Than Iran

If I’m watching one scheduled event this week, it isn’t another Hormuz headline.

It’s inflation.

The July Consumer Price Index arrives Wednesday morning, August 12, followed by Producer Price Index data Thursday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms the CPI release for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Wednesday.

That’s particularly interesting because June inflation surprised significantly to the downside. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, helped substantially by lower energy prices.

Now the market gets another data point.

And this one comes after renewed Middle East energy disruptions.

The question isn’t simply whether inflation is “high” or “low.”

The question is:

What does the number do to expectations for the Federal Reserve?

Markets are constantly pricing the future.

A benign inflation report could reinforce the idea that monetary policy doesn’t need to become more restrictive.

A hotter report could quickly change that calculation.

Reuters described this week’s inflation report as an important test for both stocks near record levels and expectations for Fed policy.

That makes Wednesday morning worth watching.

Earnings Aren’t Finished Yet

The giant mega-cap earnings reports may largely be behind us, but earnings season isn’t over.

There are several interesting reports this week, particularly in technology and AI-related areas.

Among the names worth watching:

CoreWeave (CRWV) reports this week, giving investors another look at demand for AI computing infrastructure.

Cisco (CSCO) will provide another data point on networking and AI infrastructure spending.

And Applied Materials (AMAT) gives us a window into semiconductor equipment demand and the enormous capital spending occurring farther upstream in the AI ecosystem.

Kiplinger highlights all three as major reports for the August 10–14 week, with analysts expecting substantial year-over-year growth from Cisco and Applied Materials.

Those reports become especially interesting given what we’re already seeing in our Relative Strength Dashboard.

AI Hardware Infrastructure just experienced a significant short-term acceleration.

Now we’ll find out whether earnings reinforce that move.

Meanwhile, the FMT Picks Keep Working

This may be the most important part of the story.

While financial media tries to handicap every geopolitical headline and traders debate which sector should theoretically lead next, our current open trades have simply continued doing their jobs.

Three of four positions are profitable, with PATH approaching a 9% gain.

And the one position that isn’t profitable is down just over 1%.

That’s not because we predicted Iran.

We didn’t predict the next inflation number.

And we certainly didn’t predict every twist in sector rotation.

We didn’t need to.

The process is designed to identify stocks where the evidence suggests institutional money is accumulating shares, then manage the trade as new information arrives.

Sometimes the market gets noisy.

The process doesn’t have to.

Follow the Money, Not the Story

There will almost certainly be another Iran headline this week.

Maybe several.

There will be predictions about CPI.

There will be predictions about the Fed.

And someone on financial television will confidently explain why whatever happened that morning was completely obvious.

That’s Wall Street’s version of Groundhog Day.

Our job isn’t to predict the next headline.

It’s to watch what the market actually does with it.

Right now, the evidence says:

The broad market trend remains bullish.

Sector rotation remains active — and somewhat unpredictable.

Inflation is the biggest scheduled catalyst this week.

And individual stocks continue to offer opportunities despite all the noise.

Which brings us back to the principle behind everything we do at Follow Me Trades:

We don’t predict the market. We prepare for it.

Join Us Inside FMT Framework

If you’d like to see exactly how we identify these sector rotations before they become obvious to everyone else, I’d love to have you join us inside FMT Framework Stock & Option Picks.

You’ll receive our current portfolio, trade ideas, live market sessions, and the same Relative Strength tools and proprietary scans we use every day to follow institutional money.

Try it for just $37 for your first 30 days, backed by our 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee. After that, it’s $97 per month, and you can cancel anytime.

Find Out More

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Beyond the Noise 8/2/2026

Turn on financial television this weekend and you’ll see the stories everyone is talking about.

Iran.

Oil.

The jobs report.

Another busy week of earnings.

Those stories matter. They can certainly move markets in the short term.

But if the headlines surrounding Iran are starting to feel a little like Groundhog Day, you’re probably not alone.

Ceasefire.

New tensions.

Oil spikes.

Oil drops.

Another round of speculation.

Each development is significant, and the human cost should never be minimized. Yet the market seems increasingly willing to absorb the news and return its attention to the questions that ultimately drive stock prices: corporate earnings, economic data, interest rates, and where institutional money is flowing next.

That’s where we try to look Beyond the Noise.

The Headlines vs. The Market

Last week, the S&P 500 briefly looked vulnerable. The index slipped below its 50-day moving average, raising the possibility that the recent consolidation might become something more serious.

Instead, buyers stepped back in.

By Friday’s close, the index had reclaimed the 50-day moving average, keeping the longer-term uptrend intact. Price action once again reminded us that markets often reveal more through their behavior than through the headlines dominating the news cycle.

Price Still Tells the Truth

The chart doesn’t tell us what tomorrow’s headlines will be.

It tells us how investors are voting today.

Markets often climb a wall of worry, and despite another week of geopolitical headlines, the S&P 500 regained its 50-day moving average and preserved its primary uptrend.

That’s valuable information.

What We See Beneath the Surface

The bigger story wasn’t the index itself.

It was what was happening beneath the surface.

Just a week ago, Energy was leading our Relative Strength rankings. We focused our attention there and captured another profitable trade in Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

Before that, leadership was much less obvious. While many investors were still chasing the biggest AI names, our framework identified an opportunity in Etsy—a stock few people were talking about—which turned into one of our strongest trades of the summer.

This week, something different caught our attention.

Software Cloud has quietly moved to the top of our Relative Strength rankings.

Thirty Stocks Deserve a Closer Look

Even more interesting, our proprietary Software Cloud scan returned 30 potential trade candidates.

That doesn’t mean thirty buy signals.

It doesn’t even mean thirty stocks will continue higher.

What it does tell us is that we’re seeing broad participation across an entire sector.

One company can have a great earnings report.

An entire sector producing dozens of technically interesting charts at the same time is something very different.

That’s often what institutional accumulation looks like.

When our scans begin lighting up across an entire industry, we pay attention.

Not because we know exactly which stock will become the next winner...

...but because we know where professional money appears to be spending its time.

What We’ll Be Watching This Week

This week will provide plenty of opportunities for that picture to become even clearer.

Several influential companies—including Palantir, AMD, Disney, Uber, Airbnb, and Eli Lilly—will report earnings, giving investors another look at the health of several important sectors.

Then on Friday, we’ll receive the July Employment Report, one of the market’s most closely watched economic releases.

Those events will generate plenty of headlines.

Some will move markets.

Some won’t.

Our job isn’t to predict which headline will matter most.

Our job is to recognize where institutional money is actually moving after the headlines have been absorbed.

Beyond the Noise

Last week, that was Energy.

Before that, it was an unexpected opportunity in Etsy.

Today, Software Cloud has our attention.

Next week, it may be something entirely different.

That’s perfectly fine.

We don’t build our investment process around predicting tomorrow’s news.

We build it around recognizing where institutional money is going today.

That’s what Relative Strength helps us measure.

That’s what our proprietary scans help us discover.

And that’s how we stay focused on what matters most—following the money, not the headlines.

Join Us Inside FMT Framework

If you’d like to see exactly how we identify these sector rotations before they become obvious to everyone else, I’d love to have you join us inside FMT Framework Stock & Option Picks.

You’ll receive our current portfolio, trade ideas, live market sessions, and the same Relative Strength tools and proprietary scans we use every day to follow institutional money.

Try it for just $37 for your first 30 days, backed by our 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee. After that, it’s $97 per month, and you can cancel anytime.

Sign Up Now

I hope to see you in the live sessions.

Dean

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Last week we talked about how markets don’t simply react to headlines—they weigh them against expectations.

This week provided another reminder.

Over the past month, the headlines surrounding Iran have almost felt like they’re repeating themselves.

Ceasefire.

Missiles.

Truce.

More fighting.

Another ceasefire.

Each development is significant. Lives are at stake, and the human cost of war should never be minimized.

Yet with each cycle, the market has reacted a little less dramatically than the one before.

Investors aren’t ignoring the conflict. They simply appear to be shifting their attention back toward the questions that ultimately drive stock prices: earnings, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.

In other words...

The market seems less interested in running for the exits and more interested in finding the next chair.

That’s exactly what we’ve been watching beneath the surface.

While the major indexes have spent several weeks consolidating near their highs, institutional money has been constantly rotating from one leadership group to another.

Artificial Intelligence hardware cooled after an incredible run.

Software lost momentum.

Internet platforms weakened.

Cybersecurity briefly looked ready to take the baton before stumbling as well.

Meanwhile, money quietly rotated into defense, industrial machinery, financials, energy, and even precious metals.

That’s what makes this market so challenging.

By the time a sector becomes the hottest story on financial television, institutions may already be looking somewhere else.

Capital rarely disappears.

It usually rotates.

Our job isn’t to predict where money should go.

Our job is to recognize where it is going.

That distinction matters.

Last week provided a perfect example.

Our biggest portfolio winner wasn’t NVIDIA.

It wasn’t Broadcom.

It wasn’t another AI stock.

It was ETSY.

I doubt many investors would have guessed that a month ago.

But our framework isn’t trying to predict tomorrow’s headlines. It’s simply looking for evidence that institutional money is beginning to accumulate shares.

When that evidence appears, we pay attention.

Today, our strongest portfolio leader is OXY.

At the same time, we’re watching precious metals closely. The group showed encouraging relative strength this past week, but one strong week doesn’t establish a trend. We’d like to see additional confirmation that institutions are continuing to commit capital before becoming more aggressive.

Patience is part of the process.

Successful investing isn’t about having an opinion on every sector.

It’s about having the discipline to wait until the evidence supports your opinion.

This week should provide plenty of new evidence.

Nearly one-third of the S&P 500 has already reported earnings, and results have generally been stronger than expected. This week several additional mega-cap companies will report, giving investors a much clearer picture of corporate America.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concludes its second meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh. While few expect an immediate change in interest rates, investors will be listening carefully for clues about the path ahead.

We’ll also receive updates on GDP and inflation before the week is over.

In other words...

The music may change again.

Fortunately, our job isn't to predict where the next chair will be. Our job is to recognize it when institutional money starts sitting down.

We simply need a disciplined framework that helps us recognize where institutional money is sitting down next.

If you’d like to see exactly how we’re identifying these rotations before they become headlines, I’d love to have you join us inside FMT Framework Stock & Option Picks.

Sign Up Now

You’ll receive our current portfolio, trade ideas, live market sessions, and the same relative strength tools and framework we use every day to follow institutional money.

Try it for just $37 for your first 30 days. If you don’t believe it’s worth it, simply let us know and we’ll refund your subscription—our 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee. After that, it’s $97 per month, and you can cancel anytime.

I hope to see you in the live sessions.

Dean

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Beyond the Noise – July 19, 2026

The Market Is Catching Its Breath

Last week wasn’t dramatic.

It was instructive.

The S&P 500 finally experienced a modest pullback after several months of strong gains. Technology continued to weaken, money rotated into completely different areas of the market, and earnings season officially began giving investors something more important than speculation.

Yet despite all of that...

Very little has actually changed.

Sometimes markets don’t reverse.

Sometimes they simply pause.

And that’s exactly what this looks like so far.

Earnings Season Is Off To A Healthy Start

The first wave of reports has been encouraging.

The large banks generally delivered better-than-expected earnings while continuing to describe a consumer that remains surprisingly resilient.

Loan losses remain manageable.

Investment banking activity continues improving.

Credit quality has not shown the kind of deterioration many feared earlier this year.

Healthcare and industrial companies have also produced several solid reports, while semiconductor bellwether Taiwan Semiconductor reinforced that AI-related capital spending remains very strong.

Not every report has been rewarded.

Netflix, for example, beat expectations but disappointed investors with cautious guidance—another reminder that earnings season isn’t simply about beating estimates anymore.

Forward guidance matters just as much.

Heading into the season, FactSet projected S&P 500 earnings growth above 20% year-over-year—an unusually strong number—and analysts actually raised earnings estimates during the quarter instead of lowering them, something that rarely happens. Expectations were already high before companies began reporting.

So far...

Corporate America is largely delivering.

The Next Two Weeks Get Serious

The earnings calendar now shifts into another gear.

This week we’ll hear from several companies capable of moving entire sectors:

• Alphabet

• Tesla

• Intel

• IBM

• General Motors

• 3M

• Honeywell

• Lockheed Martin

• Verizon

• American Express

Over the following two weeks the pace only accelerates as many of the largest technology companies report.

By the end of this month we’ll have a much clearer picture of whether corporate earnings can continue supporting this bull market.

The Chart Hasn’t Broken

Sometimes investors mistake a pullback for a trend change.

The chart says otherwise.

Price has retreated toward the rising 50-day moving average.

That’s exactly where we’d expect buyers to become interested during a healthy uptrend.

The 200-day moving average continues rising.

The Ichimoku Cloud remains supportive.

Momentum has cooled considerably from May’s surge, but it hasn’t rolled over into a bearish condition.

Could the market break below the 50-day?

Absolutely.

Anything is possible.

But today we’re responding to evidence—not possibilities.

Right now the evidence still favors the bulls.

The Story Isn’t The Index

It’s The Rotation

One of the most interesting developments this week wasn’t what the S&P did.

It was where money went.

Only a few weeks ago AI infrastructure and semiconductors dominated our Relative Strength Dashboard.

Today they’re sitting at the bottom.

Meanwhile...

Cybersecurity has quietly climbed to the top.

Energy majors continue showing impressive strength.

Regional banks have moved into the leadership group.

Even homebuilders continue outperforming despite interest rates remaining elevated.

That’s healthy.

Bull markets rarely see every sector advance together.

Instead...

Leadership rotates.

Money leaves yesterday’s winners and begins searching for tomorrow’s opportunities.

Don’t Chase The Leaderboard

One of the easiest mistakes investors make is assuming the strongest sector automatically becomes the next trade.

That’s not what Relative Strength tells us.

It tells us where institutional money is flowing.

Nothing more.

From there we ask the next questions.

Is the trend healthy?

Is price extended?

Is risk favorable?

Has the chart confirmed the move?

Relative Strength starts the conversation.

Price decides whether we participate.

That’s an important distinction.

A Quiet Week For Economics

Compared with recent weeks, the economic calendar is surprisingly light.

Wednesday brings crude oil inventories.

Thursday features weekly unemployment claims.

Friday we’ll receive Flash PMI readings for manufacturing and services along with new home sales.

None of these are likely to dominate market direction unless they produce a major surprise.

For now...

Corporate earnings remain the primary driver.

What We’ll Be Watching

Three questions stand out this week.

Does the S&P hold the 50-day moving average?

Healthy pullbacks often stop there.

Failed rallies frequently don’t.

Does sector rotation continue?

If money continues flowing into financials, cybersecurity, and energy while technology consolidates, that’s evidence of a broadening bull market—not necessarily a weakening one.

Do companies continue rewarding investors with strong guidance?

Beating estimates isn’t enough anymore.

Markets want confidence about the second half of the year.

Guidance may prove more important than the headlines.

Final Thoughts

One thing I’ve learned over the years is that markets rarely send all the important signals through the major indexes.

Sometimes the real story is happening underneath the surface.

This week feels like one of those times.

The S&P is pulling back toward support.

Earnings have largely been constructive.

Money continues rotating rather than leaving the market altogether.

That doesn’t guarantee higher prices.

But it does suggest investors are reallocating—not retreating.

As always...

We’ll continue following the evidence.

Because the headlines tell us what happened.

The charts tell us what matters.

And the movement of money often tells us what’s coming next.

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Beyond the Noise – July 12, 2026

Last week we talked about the “Dog Days of Summer.”

The major indexes had rallied sharply off the April lows, momentum had cooled, and the market appeared content to wait for its next meaningful catalyst.

It didn’t have to wait long.

Over the weekend, the fragile ceasefire with Iran unraveled. Military exchanges resumed, the United States became directly involved with targeted strikes, and oil prices immediately jumped more than 3% as traders once again focused on the possibility of disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

If you simply watched the news, you might assume investors should be preparing for panic.

Instead...

S&P futures are only modestly lower.

That’s an important reminder.

Markets don’t react to headlines.

They react to how those headlines change expectations.

Oil Is Speaking...

One of the first places investors look during periods of geopolitical uncertainty is the oil market.

This weekend was no exception.

WTI crude climbed back above $73 per barrel after spending much of the past month drifting lower from its spring highs.

At first glance, a 3% move sounds dramatic.

In context, it really isn’t.

Oil remains well below the levels reached earlier this year when geopolitical fears were at their peak. The market is certainly pricing additional risk, but it is not yet pricing a prolonged disruption to global supply.

That distinction matters.

Energy prices influence inflation expectations, transportation costs, corporate profit margins, and ultimately Federal Reserve policy.

If crude continues climbing toward the spring highs, markets may begin reassessing inflation and interest rate expectations.

If oil stabilizes here, investors will likely turn their attention somewhere else.

For now...

Oil deserves watching.

Not fearing.

Earnings Season Takes Center Stage

While the headlines have everyone’s attention, something arguably more important begins this week.

Second-quarter earnings season officially kicks into high gear.

Tuesday brings reports from several of the nation’s largest financial institutions:

• JPMorgan Chase

• Bank of America

• Goldman Sachs

• Wells Fargo

• Citigroup

Wednesday broadens the picture with:

• Johnson & Johnson

• Morgan Stanley

• BlackRock

• Progressive

Thursday adds another round of market-moving names:

• Taiwan Semiconductor

• GE Aerospace

• UnitedHealth

• Netflix (after the close)

Banks tell us about lending, consumer health, commercial activity, and credit quality.

Healthcare offers insight into one of the market’s most defensive sectors.

Industrial companies provide clues about manufacturing demand.

Semiconductors continue to reveal whether AI spending remains as strong as investors expect.

For the next several weeks, corporate America—not economists—will largely determine the market narrative.

[Insert Earnings Calendar graphic]

The Trend Hasn’t Changed

Despite the geopolitical headlines, the primary trend remains remarkably intact.

The S&P 500 continues trading above a rising 50-day moving average.

Price remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average.

The Ichimoku Cloud continues supporting the longer-term trend.

Momentum has begun turning higher again after several weeks of consolidation.

Nothing about Friday’s chart suggests investors have abandoned the primary uptrend.

Could that change?

Absolutely.

But successful investing isn’t about predicting what might happen.

It’s about responding to what actually does happen.

One difficult weekend doesn’t automatically erase three months of constructive price action.

Money Is Moving... But That Doesn’t Mean “Buy”

One of the biggest changes we noticed last week wasn’t in the headlines.

It was in sector rotation.

Our Relative Strength Dashboard updates every day, measuring where capital has been flowing over the previous five trading sessions.

One thing I’ve noticed over the years is that many investors misunderstand what relative strength actually tells us.

It’s not a buy signal.

It’s a roadmap.

Over the course of last week, the rankings shifted almost daily as money rotated across sectors. Energy Services climbed to the top as geopolitical tensions resurfaced, but by Friday another familiar group had quietly worked its way back into the top three:

AI Hardware Infrastructure.

If you simply looked at the dashboard, you might conclude:

“Great... time to buy semiconductors again.”

Maybe.

Or maybe not.

Relative Strength tells us where money is flowing.

It doesn’t tell us whether individual stocks already made their move.

That’s where chart analysis comes in.

Relative Strength Starts the Conversation

Let’s look at two of the sector’s biggest leaders.

NVIDIA

NVIDIA has recovered nicely over the past two weeks.

Price has reclaimed the 50-day moving average while remaining comfortably above the 200-day average, preserving the longer-term uptrend.

That’s constructive.

But notice where price sits today.

After a strong rally from the recent lows, the stock is approaching prior resistance.

Could it continue higher?

Absolutely.

Would we call this a low-risk entry?

Probably not.

Broadcom

Broadcom tells a similar story.

The longer-term trend remains healthy.

The recent rebound has been impressive.

But price is now pushing back toward the Ichimoku Cloud while still trading below a declining 50-day moving average.

That’s progress.

It isn’t confirmation.

This illustrates an important lesson.

Strong sectors often contain strong companies.

That doesn’t mean every strong company offers a favorable entry today.

This Is Why Process Matters

One of the easiest mistakes investors make is assuming the strongest sector automatically contains the best trades.

Sometimes that’s true.

Often it isn’t.

Relative Strength simply tells us where to begin looking.

From there we ask the questions that actually matter.

• Is the trend healthy?

• Is price extended?

• Is there an attractive reward-to-risk opportunity?

• Is momentum improving?

• Does the chart agree with the sector?

Sometimes the answer is yes.

Sometimes the answer is “not yet.”

That’s exactly why we’ve built our framework the way we have.

Our Relative Strength Dashboard helps us identify where money is moving.

The chart tells us whether it’s time to act.

Those are two very different questions.

What We’ll Be Watching

This week we’ll be focused on three questions.

Will higher oil prices begin changing inflation expectations?

If crude continues climbing aggressively, it could alter interest rate expectations.

What do the banks tell us about the economy?

Loan growth, credit quality, and consumer spending often provide one of the clearest windows into economic health.

Does the market continue rewarding strong earnings?

Bull markets typically forgive small disappointments while rewarding companies that exceed expectations.

If that behavior continues, the primary trend remains healthy.

Final Thoughts

The headlines this weekend are serious.

They deserve attention.

But successful investing has never been about reacting emotionally to breaking news.

It’s about measuring whether new information changes the probabilities.

So far...

Oil has moved.

Stocks have barely blinked.

Now earnings season begins.

Over the next several weeks, we’ll likely learn far more from corporate conference calls than cable news.

We’ll continue following price, tracking where money is moving, and letting evidence—not emotion—guide our decisions.

Because eventually...

The headlines fade.

The trends remain.

And remember:

Money is moving. Relative Strength tells us where. Price tells us when.

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Beyond the Noise – July 5, 2026

Summer has a way of slowing things down.

Across much of the country, temperatures are climbing into the 90s and even the triple digits. Walk through the neighborhood in the afternoon and you’ll probably find the big dogs stretched out under a tree, conserving energy until the evening cools things off.

The stock market may be entering a similar phase.

After several weeks dominated by geopolitical headlines, a mixed employment report, and a powerful rally back toward all-time highs, investors appear to be entering a “wait and see” period. The economic calendar for the week of July 6-10 is relatively light, with the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday serving as the primary scheduled event.

Second-quarter earnings season technically begins this week, with early reports from companies including PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL). These reports will offer the first look at how corporate America performed during the second quarter, but the real flood of earnings doesn’t arrive until the following week when the major banks kick off reporting season in earnest.

Until then, Wall Street may simply be waiting for its next meaningful catalyst.

Or at least that’s what it looks like on the surface.

The Jobs Report Wasn’t Strong...

Last week’s employment report tells an interesting story about today’s market.

Headline unemployment improved from 4.3% to 4.2%, but beneath the surface, job growth slowed more than economists expected. Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 57,000, well below expectations of 114,000, while the prior month’s figure was revised lower.

Normally, a payroll miss like that might rattle investors.

This time, it didn’t.

Why?

Because markets don’t react to the news—they react to what the news changes.

The report suggested the labor market continues to cool, but not enough to significantly alter the broader economic outlook. It wasn’t strong enough to push the Federal Reserve toward a more aggressive stance, and it wasn’t weak enough to signal an economy slipping into recession.

In other words...

It didn’t change much.

And when expectations don’t change, markets often pause and wait for the next piece of meaningful information.

A Healthy Market Takes a Breath

That brings us to the current technical picture.

The S&P 500 remains in an established uptrend.

Price continues to hold above a rising 50-day moving average, remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average, and sits above the Ichimoku Cloud. At the same time, momentum has cooled considerably from the powerful advance we saw through May and June.

That’s exactly what healthy markets often do.

Strong trends don’t move straight up forever. They pause, digest recent gains, allow moving averages to catch up, and prepare for the next catalyst.

Consolidation is not the same thing as weakness.

Sometimes it’s simply the market catching its breath.

While the Big Dogs Rest...

Here’s where things get interesting.

Just because the big dogs are lying comfortably in the shade doesn’t mean the entire market has gone to sleep.

Some of the pups are still running.

One of the biggest misconceptions in investing is that money enters or leaves “the market” all at once.

It doesn’t.

Money is always moving.

It rotates from one sector to another as investors search for the next opportunity. Leadership changes quietly long before it becomes obvious to everyone else. That’s why we spend so much time tracking relative strength instead of simply watching the major indexes.

Our Relative Strength Dashboard highlights those subtle shifts before they become front-page news.

As we enter this week, several sectors have quietly moved to the top of our rankings:

• Defense Aerospace

• Fintech Payments

• Biotech

• Software Cloud

• Precious Metals

At the same time, several recent leaders have begun cooling:

• AI Hardware Infrastructure

• Energy Services

• Homebuilders

• Nuclear Complex

That doesn’t automatically make the former winners bearish.

It simply reminds us that leadership is constantly evolving.

The headlines may feel quiet.

The rotation rarely is.

What We’ll Be Watching

A quieter week doesn’t mean an unimportant week.

In fact, these are often the weeks when tomorrow’s leaders begin separating themselves from yesterday’s winners.

As earnings season begins, we’ll be watching for three things:

• Which sectors continue attracting money despite the slower news cycle?

• Which stocks refuse to give back recent gains?

• Which pullbacks attract buyers instead of sellers?

Those answers often become far more valuable than trying to predict the next headline.

Final Thoughts

The “Dog Days of Summer” are named for the hottest, slowest stretch of the season.

Markets have their own version.

Sometimes they sprint.

Sometimes they rest.

The key is recognizing the difference.

This week may very well be one of those quieter periods where the major indexes take a breather while investors wait for earnings season to accelerate.

That’s perfectly normal.

We’ll continue watching where the money is moving, looking for new leadership, and letting price—not predictions—guide our decisions.

The big dogs may be napping in the shade.

We’ll be watching the pups.

Because today’s quiet rotation often becomes tomorrow’s biggest opportunity.

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Beyond the Noise, June 28, 2026

Money Is Moving

The market isn’t breaking.

It’s rotating.

That distinction matters because it changes where opportunity is found.

After a strong advance, many investors become conditioned to equate weakness in the largest technology names with weakness in the entire market. But markets don’t move that way. Capital is constantly searching for relative strength, flowing out of areas that have become extended and into sectors that are just beginning to emerge.

That rotation is exactly what we’re seeing today.

The S&P 500 remains in a longer-term uptrend, but the trend is being tested. Friday’s close below the 50-day moving average is something we’ll be watching carefully. One day doesn’t define a new trend, but it does deserve our attention.

Meanwhile, the story beneath the surface is becoming clearer.

Leadership is changing.

Homebuilders, Healthcare, Cybersecurity, and Biotech currently sit near the top of our Relative Strength rankings, while many of this year’s former leaders—including AI Infrastructure, Energy, Nuclear, and Precious Metals—have begun to lose momentum.

That doesn’t necessarily signal a bearish market.

It suggests money is moving.

This week also brings several economic reports capable of increasing volatility. Manufacturing data arrives Wednesday, followed by Thursday’s employment report before the shortened Independence Day holiday week. Those releases could influence both market sentiment and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

At Follow Me Trades, we don’t try to predict what the market should do.

We prepare for what it is doing.

That means identifying where money is flowing, building a focused watchlist, and developing actionable trade plans before the market opens.

Because the best trades often aren’t found by predicting the future.

They’re found by following the money.

Watch the Full Market Prep Replay

Today’s Beyond the Noise is just a summary.

If you’d like to see the complete analysis—including sector rotation, Relative Strength rankings, our current watchlist, and the trade planning process—we’ve posted the full FMT Market Prep session replay here:

👉 https://followmetrades.com/fmt-market-prep-recording/

Whether you’re an active trader or simply want a clearer understanding of what is driving this market, I think you’ll find it time well spent.

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That doesn’t mean the market is broken. It means money is moving.

The question isn’t whether money is moving—it’s where it’s going.

Markets are constantly rotating. Leadership changes. Capital flows from one sector to another. The traders who consistently perform well aren’t the ones who predict every move—they’re the ones who recognize those changes early and build a plan around them.

That’s exactly what we’ll examine together during Sunday’s FMT Market Prep session.

Join Live on Zoom

Sunday, June 28, 2025

1:00 PM PT

4:00 PM ET

Using the FMT Framework, we’ll:

• Develop a market thesis for the week ahead.

• Identify institutional strength and sectors attracting capital.

• Build a focused watchlist of high-quality trade candidates.

• Create actionable trade plans with defined entries, stops, and targets.

• Evaluate attendee stock ideas live using the FMT Framework (time permitting).

Join Us Live

Sunday, June 28

1:00 PM PT • 4:00 PM ET

Interactive Zoom Meeting (Open to All)

We don’t predict the market. We prepare for it.

I hope you’ll join us.

Dean-

That doesn’t mean the market is broken. It means money is moving.

The question isn’t whether money is moving—it’s where it’s going.

Markets are constantly rotating. Leadership changes. Capital flows from one sector to another. The traders who consistently perform well aren’t the ones who predict every move—they’re the ones who recognize those changes early and build a plan around them.

That’s exactly what we’ll examine together during Sunday’s FMT Market Prep session.

Join Live on Zoom

Sunday, June 28, 2025

1:00 PM PT

4:00 PM ET

Get a Reminder

If you would like a reminder 30-minutes before we go live, just click the button above

Using the FMT Framework, we’ll:

• Develop a market thesis for the week ahead.

• Identify institutional strength and sectors attracting capital.

• Build a focused watchlist of high-quality trade candidates.

• Create actionable trade plans with defined entries, stops, and targets.

• Evaluate attendee stock ideas live using the FMT Framework (time permitting).

Join Us Live

Sunday, June 28

1:00 PM PT • 4:00 PM ET

Interactive Zoom Meeting (Open to All)

We don’t predict the market. We prepare for it.

I hope you’ll join us.

Dean-

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The Story Changed. The Lesson Didn’t.

Beyond the Noise – June 21, 2026

One week ago I wrote a post titled This Could Be Good...

The idea was simple:

Markets don’t price the news. They price the surprise.

At the time, reports suggested tensions in the Middle East might be easing. Oil fell sharply. Stock futures rallied.

I promised a follow-up.

Then the news cycle exploded.

New reports emerged.

New threats were made.

Military actions were discussed.

Oil reversed.

Stocks reversed.

And every time I sat down to write an update, the story changed again.

So instead of writing about a single headline, let’s talk about what the market is telling us now.

The Market Has Had Every Excuse

As I write this Sunday evening, futures are under pressure.

Oil is back near $78 per barrel.

The Nasdaq futures are leading lower.

And Thursday’s Core PCE inflation report is shaping up to be one of the most important economic releases of the month.

Investors have had plenty to worry about.

Middle East tensions remain elevated.

Energy prices have moved sharply higher.

Inflation concerns have resurfaced.

Yet despite all of that, the market has not experienced meaningful technical damage.

The S&P 500 remains above its 50-day moving average.

It remains well above its 200-day moving average.

Our trend model continues to show a Bull Established environment.

That doesn’t guarantee higher prices tomorrow.

It simply tells us that the market has absorbed a significant amount of potentially negative news without breaking.

That’s Information

One of the most common mistakes investors make is focusing exclusively on the news.

Professionals focus on the reaction.

Bad news that fails to push prices lower is often bullish.

Good news that fails to push prices higher is often bearish.

The reaction frequently matters more than the headline itself.

The lesson from last week’s post wasn’t that peace had arrived.

The lesson was that markets were pricing expectations.

A week later, that lesson still applies.

The headlines changed.

The principle didn’t.

Following the Money

There is another reason I pay attention to market reactions instead of headlines.

Sector rotation often reveals where institutional money is moving before it becomes obvious in the major indexes.

While financial media spent the week discussing oil, Iran, inflation, and geopolitical risk, our Relative Strength Dashboard was highlighting something very different.

Nuclear-related stocks quietly moved near the top of the rankings.

Not because they were dominating headlines.

Because money was flowing into the group.

That distinction matters.

The headlines tell us what people are talking about.

Relative strength tells us what investors are actually buying.

That is why the first question in our process is never:

“What do I think?”

The first question is:

“Where is the money going?”

Once we identify a strong sector, we begin scanning that group and nearby industries for technically sound trade setups.

The sector rotation itself is not the trade.

The rotation simply tells us where to look.

A Real Example

Last week, that process led us to FCEL.

The trade wasn’t discovered because somebody saw a news story.

It wasn’t discovered because somebody made a bold prediction.

It came from following the process.

The Relative Strength Dashboard identified strength in the Nuclear Complex and adjacent energy-related groups.

From there, we scanned the sector for high-quality setups.

FCEL presented a textbook opportunity:

• Strong relative strength backdrop

• Favorable sector rotation

• Clean technical structure

• Defined risk

• Clear entry and exit parameters

The setup was published to subscribers.

The result was a 59% options gain in a single trading day.

Now let’s be careful here.

The lesson is not that every trade produces a 59% gain.

They don’t.

The lesson is that profitable trades are often the result of a repeatable process, not a lucky prediction.

This wasn’t a “swing for the fences” miracle.

It wasn’t a lottery ticket.

It was simply a complete trading system working exactly as designed.

Identify where money is flowing.

Find the highest-quality setups within those areas.

Manage risk.

Repeat.

Over and over again.

That’s how professionals survive long enough to participate in the big winners when they appear.

What I’m Watching Next

The next major test arrives Thursday with the Core PCE inflation report.

If inflation comes in cooler than expected, markets may view recent energy price spikes as temporary.

If inflation surprises to the upside, concerns about interest rates could quickly return.

Either way, we’ll receive more information.

And that’s really what investing is.

Not predicting the future.

Continuously updating our understanding of it.

The Bottom Line

The headlines remain noisy.

Oil is higher.

Futures are lower.

Thursday’s inflation report is approaching.

But beneath all of that noise, the market continues to provide clues about where capital is moving.

That’s where our attention remains.

Because while nobody knows what tomorrow’s headline will be, we can observe what institutions are doing with their money today.

And in the long run, that tends to matter far more.

The headlines changed.

The lesson didn’t.

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Beyond the Noise 6-14-2026

This Could Be Good...

The market opened this weekend expecting one thing:

More uncertainty.

More escalation.

More headlines about disruptions in the Middle East.

Then came a surprising development.

Reports indicate that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalate military operations. In response, crude oil immediately dropped nearly 5% and S&P 500 futures jumped 0.76%.

That reaction tells us something important.

Markets don’t care whether the news is good or bad.

Markets care whether reality is better or worse than expected.

For the past several weeks, investors have been preparing for higher oil prices, supply disruptions, inflation concerns, and the possibility of a broader regional conflict.

Instead, at least for the moment, the news flow appears to be moving in the opposite direction.

Could this be good?

Possibly.

Lower energy prices would ease inflation pressures.

Reduced geopolitical risk would remove another obstacle for markets already sitting near all-time highs.

And perhaps most importantly, it would be one less thing for investors to worry about.

Of course, one headline does not make a trend.

We’ve seen plenty of situations where initial optimism faded after more details emerged.

That’s why I’m resisting the temptation to draw big conclusions tonight.

Instead, I’ll be watching how markets respond over the next 24 hours.

Because the first reaction is often emotional.

The second reaction is usually more informative.

Tomorrow we’ll take a deeper look at what a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for oil, inflation, interest rates, and stocks.

For now, one simple observation:

When everyone is bracing for bad news, even “less bad” can be very good.

Stay tuned…

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Beyond the Noise, 6/7/2026

We’ve Done the Impossible. Miracles Are Harder.

When Great News Isn’t Good Enough

There is an old saying often attributed to engineers:

“We’ve done the impossible. Miracles are harder.”

Whether the quote is apocryphal or not, the message is powerful.

Once extraordinary success becomes routine, expectations change. What once seemed impossible becomes the minimum requirement. Investors stop asking whether a company is succeeding and start asking whether it can continue exceeding already extraordinary expectations.

Last week provided a valuable reminder that markets don’t move based on whether news is good or bad. Markets move based on the gap between expectations and reality.

That distinction matters.

The headlines focused on Broadcom and the sharp selloff that followed. While the company reported strong earnings and continued growth in its AI business, investors had become accustomed to a steady stream of reports that not only exceeded expectations but also dramatically raised future forecasts. This time, the story was different. AI revenue was still growing at an impressive pace, and management reaffirmed its positive outlook, but the market had already priced in near-perfect execution.

The results were good.

The outlook was solid.

But it wasn’t enough to satisfy increasingly lofty expectations.

The market’s reaction was swift.

Broadcom shares fell roughly 14% following earnings, and the selling quickly spread throughout the semiconductor and AI ecosystem. Nvidia declined approximately 7% during the week, while many AI-related stocks experienced even larger pullbacks.

For many investors, the move felt dramatic. For others, it felt overdue.

After all, some of these sectors had delivered extraordinary gains in a relatively short period of time. According to our Relative Strength Dashboard, AI Hardware Infrastructure was still up 38.7% over the previous two months despite last week’s 6.6% decline. Software Cloud remained higher by 39.3% over the same period, even after falling 11.8% during the week. Cybersecurity stocks were still up nearly 36% over two months despite a 9.9% pullback.

Expectations had become nearly impossible to satisfy.

Sometimes a stock doesn’t decline because something is wrong. Sometimes it declines because perfection was already priced in.

Rotation, Not Panic

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that weakness in a few highly visible sectors means weakness everywhere.

That wasn’t the case last week.

Our Relative Strength Dashboard tells a much more interesting story.

Several of the market’s recent leaders experienced meaningful pullbacks. Software Cloud declined 11.8% over the past five trading days. Cybersecurity fell 9.9%. Fintech dropped 9.2%. AI Hardware Infrastructure lost 6.6%.

Those declines grabbed headlines, but context matters.

Over the previous two months, Software Cloud had gained 39.3%, Cybersecurity was up 36.0%, and AI Hardware Infrastructure had surged nearly 38.7%. Last week’s weakness wasn’t occurring in struggling sectors. It was occurring in some of the market’s strongest and most crowded trades.

At the same time, money was quietly rotating into areas that many investors had largely ignored during the AI-driven rally.

Regional Banks gained 4.3% over the past week. Healthcare rose 4.2%. Consumer Staples advanced 1.8%, while Industrials and Financials also moved higher.

That is an important distinction.

When investors are truly fearful, they tend to sell everything. Last week’s action looked less like panic and more like a reassessment of risk. Money didn’t leave the market entirely. It simply changed addresses.

For active investors, that matters.

Rotation often creates opportunity. While much of the financial media focuses on what is falling, successful investors also pay attention to what is quietly rising.

A Market at a Decision Point

From a technical perspective, the market now finds itself at an important crossroads.

The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,384 after recently reaching a high near 7,600. Despite Friday’s sharp decline, the index remains above cloud support near 6,969, above its 50-day moving average near 7,156, and comfortably above its 200-day moving average near 6,858.

The Nasdaq 100, represented by QQQ, closed the week at 705 after recently trading near 750. It remains above cloud support near 652, above its 50-day moving average near 668, and above its 200-day moving average near 622.

In other words, momentum has weakened, but neither chart has suffered meaningful technical damage.

The primary trend remains intact.

That doesn’t guarantee higher prices from here. It simply means the burden of proof remains on the bears.

The next several trading sessions could prove important. If these support levels hold, the recent pullback may ultimately be remembered as a healthy pause within an ongoing uptrend.

If those levels begin to fail, investors should prepare for the possibility of further downside and continued sector rotation.

Interestingly, either outcome may create opportunity.

A resumption of the uptrend could favor growth-oriented sectors once again. A deeper correction could reveal new leadership groups and provide investors with fresh setups at more attractive prices.

Inflation Takes Center Stage

This week also brings several important economic reports, with inflation taking center stage.

On Wednesday, investors will receive the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday. These reports arrive at a critical time as markets continue to debate the path of inflation, interest rates, and future Federal Reserve policy.

The stakes are significant.

A softer-than-expected inflation reading could help restore confidence in growth-oriented sectors and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may eventually have room to ease policy.

A hotter-than-expected report could push Treasury yields higher and place additional pressure on some of the market’s highest-valuation stocks.

In many ways, this week’s inflation data may help determine whether last week’s selloff becomes a brief pause or the beginning of a larger rotation.

One More Variable

As if markets didn’t have enough to process, geopolitical risks remain in the background.

The developing situation involving Iran continues to deserve attention. History reminds us that geopolitical events can alter investor sentiment quickly and unexpectedly, particularly when energy markets become involved.

Most geopolitical headlines create short-term volatility rather than long-term market damage. Still, they serve as another reminder that markets are constantly balancing opportunity against uncertainty.

Things can change fast.

Final Thoughts

Last week’s selloff generated plenty of alarming headlines, but the market’s message may be more constructive than it first appears.

Broadcom didn’t report collapsing demand.

The AI story didn’t suddenly disappear.

What changed was investor expectations.

After a powerful rally, the market was reminded of a simple truth: once investors begin expecting miracles, even exceptional results can feel disappointing.

At the same time, capital began flowing toward sectors that had spent months sitting quietly in the shadows. While investors focused on what was falling, the market was already revealing where money was moving next.

That may be the most important lesson of all.

Successful investors rarely earn their best returns by predicting headlines. They earn them by observing how capital responds to changing conditions.

Rather than asking, “What should happen next?” a better question may be, “What is actually happening right now?”

The market will answer that question one day at a time.

Our job is not to predict the answer.

Our job is to listen, adapt, and follow the evidence wherever it leads.

Because in investing, success rarely comes from predicting miracles.

It comes from recognizing reality before everyone else does.

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Beyond the Noise

June 1, 2026

No Deal? No Problem — For Now

The market spent another week doing something that continues to frustrate both bears and skeptics:

Ignoring reasons to go down.

Iran negotiations remain unresolved.

Geopolitical headlines continue to shift almost daily.

Economic growth remains mixed.

And yet the S&P 500 closed the week at fresh all-time highs, with technology once again leading the advance.

At some point, traders have to acknowledge what price is saying.

Whether investors agree with it or not, the market is currently behaving as though the path of least resistance remains higher.

And until price proves otherwise, that deserves respect.

The Market’s Message Hasn’t Changed

For weeks, investors have been conditioned to expect that some combination of geopolitical tension, inflation concerns, or economic weakness would eventually derail the rally.

Instead, every pullback has been met with buyers.

Last week’s action reinforced that theme.

The market opened the week with uncertainty surrounding ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. Headlines alternated between progress and setbacks, creating plenty of reasons for caution.

Yet by Friday, the S&P 500 had quietly pushed to another record close.

The message from investors appears straightforward:

No agreement is preferable.

A favorable agreement would be welcome.

But as long as conditions don’t significantly deteriorate, traders seem comfortable maintaining risk exposure.

That is a very different mindset than we saw earlier this year when uncertainty itself was enough to trigger aggressive selling.

Today, uncertainty is being tolerated.

And that subtle shift in psychology matters.

When Markets Stop Waiting

One of the more interesting developments over the past month is how quickly markets have moved from worrying about potential outcomes to discounting them.

Investors are no longer waiting for perfect clarity.

They’re making assumptions.

The current assumption appears to be that:

• Iran tensions remain contained

• Energy markets remain functional

• Inflation pressures remain manageable

• The economy slows, but doesn’t break

Could any of those assumptions prove wrong?

Absolutely.

But markets don’t trade on certainty.

They trade on probabilities.

Right now, investors appear comfortable assigning relatively low probabilities to worst-case scenarios.

That helps explain why stocks continue moving higher despite headlines that would have created far greater anxiety just a few months ago.

Technology Continues to Lead

Another notable feature of this rally is who continues to lead it.

Technology remains firmly in control.

The Nasdaq gained roughly 8% during May, significantly outperforming many other sectors.

AI-related spending themes remain intact.

Earnings expectations remain strong.

And investors continue rewarding companies with visible growth trajectories.

That leadership matters because healthy bull markets typically require leadership.

For now, technology continues providing it.

As long as capital keeps flowing toward growth-oriented sectors, it’s difficult to build a strong bearish case against the broader market.

The Technical Picture Remains Bullish

The chart continues telling a constructive story.

The S&P 500 successfully tested cloud support during the April correction and has been advancing steadily ever since.

The trend remains firmly intact:

• Price remains above the cloud

• The 50-day moving average continues rising

• The 200-day moving average continues rising

• Momentum remains positive, although no longer accelerating

Most importantly, there is still little evidence of sustained institutional selling.

Instead, the market continues displaying the behavior we’ve discussed repeatedly throughout this rally:

Pullbacks are opportunities.

Not warnings.

At least for now.

Eventually that behavior will change.

But there is little evidence that change has begun.

This Week: Employment Takes Center Stage

While geopolitical headlines will continue attracting attention, the economic calendar becomes more important this week.

Several employment-related reports could influence expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

Key reports include:

Tuesday

• JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday

• ADP Employment Report

• ISM Services

Thursday

• Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday

• Non-Farm Payrolls

• Unemployment Rate

• Average Hourly Earnings

Employment data remains one of the most important pieces of the macro puzzle.

Markets continue searching for evidence that the economy is slowing enough to keep inflation under control, but not slowing enough to threaten earnings growth.

That balance remains critical.

A “Goldilocks” labor market remains the ideal outcome.

The Psychological Challenge

The hardest part of this environment may not be analyzing the market.

It may be trusting what the market is saying.

Many traders remain anchored to risks that have not yet materialized.

Others remain convinced that record highs automatically imply danger.

Sometimes they’re right.

But trends often persist far longer than logic alone would suggest.

The market doesn’t require universal agreement to move higher.

In fact, rallies often thrive when skepticism remains abundant.

The question every trader should be asking right now is simple:

Am I trading the market I see, or the market I expect?

That’s an important distinction.

Because right now, the market continues rewarding those willing to follow price rather than argue with it.

The Bottom Line

The market entered the year facing concerns about inflation, tariffs, economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical conflict.

Many of those concerns remain unresolved.

Yet stocks continue making new highs.

That doesn’t mean risk has disappeared.

It simply means investors currently view those risks as manageable.

For now, the market’s verdict is clear:

No deal? No problem.

At least not yet.

The trend remains higher.

Momentum remains constructive.

And until price starts telling a different story, disciplined traders should continue respecting what the market is actually doing rather than what they think it should be doing.

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Beyond the Noise

May 24, 2026

The Market Climbs the Wall of Worry — Again

Last week’s market action carried a very different tone than the panic-driven headlines dominating the news cycle.

The geopolitical backdrop remained tense.

Iran negotiations continued to swing between escalation fears and cautious optimism.
Oil prices moved violently throughout the week.
And traders were once again forced to price uncertainty in real time.

Yet despite all of it, the market largely did what strong markets tend to do:

It absorbed the news…
and kept climbing.

The S&P 500 found support directly at the cloud and resumed higher toward all-time highs.

That matters.

Because strong markets often reveal themselves not by the absence of bad news…
but by their refusal to break under pressure.

And that’s exactly what we continue to see.

The Iran Situation Still Dominates the Macro Narrative

The biggest story driving short-term sentiment remains the evolving U.S.-Iran situation.

Markets spent much of the past two weeks reacting to every headline tied to:

• Strait of Hormuz disruption concerns

• Oil supply fears

• Ceasefire and negotiation rumors

• Inflation implications

• Potential economic spillover effects

But over the weekend, markets appeared to lean increasingly toward cautious optimism.

Oil prices fell sharply as traders responded to reports suggesting negotiations may be progressing toward some form of agreement or de-escalation framework.

That helped fuel another risk-on move in equities.

And importantly:

The market’s reaction function continues to favor optimism unless proven otherwise.

That’s a notable psychological shift from earlier this year when markets were far quicker to sell uncertainty.

Now the dominant behavior appears to be:

“Assume resolution until price proves otherwise.”

Oil’s Message May Be More Important Than the Headlines

One of the more interesting developments is what oil itself may be signaling.

Just days ago, traders were discussing worst-case scenarios involving prolonged Hormuz disruption and potential supply shocks.

Now crude has pulled back sharply on hopes negotiations could eventually stabilize flows again.

That reversal matters because oil has become one of the market’s clearest real-time sentiment gauges.

When oil spikes aggressively:
markets worry about inflation, growth pressure, and policy complications.

When oil stabilizes or falls:
markets quickly regain confidence.

At the moment, equities appear to be interpreting lower oil as permission to continue chasing upside.

The Technical Picture Remains Constructive

Technically, the S&P 500 continues to behave very well.

The recent pullback successfully tested cloud support before buyers stepped back in aggressively.

That’s exactly the type of behavior bullish trends tend to exhibit.

Instead of cascading lower on geopolitical fear, the market:

• held support

• stabilized quickly

• and resumed higher

The 50-day moving average continues rising.
The 200-day remains firmly upward sloping.
Momentum has cooled slightly from peak acceleration levels, but remains constructive overall.

Most importantly:

There is still very little evidence of sustained institutional distribution.

Pullbacks continue getting bought quickly.

Until that changes, the primary trend deserves respect.

A Light Economic Calendar Means Headlines May Drive Volatility

This week’s scheduled economic calendar is relatively light compared to recent weeks.

The biggest reports include:

• Consumer Confidence

• GDP revisions

• PCE inflation data

• Durable Goods

• Jobless Claims

But absent a major surprise, the market will likely remain far more sensitive to geopolitical headlines than scheduled economic releases.

That creates an environment where:

headline volatility can increase dramatically intraday,
while the broader trend remains intact underneath.

For traders, that distinction matters.

Short-term volatility and long-term trend direction are not always the same thing.

What Makes This Environment Difficult

Markets like this create a psychological trap.

The headlines feel dangerous.
But price keeps acting strong.

That disconnect creates hesitation.

And eventually, hesitation turns into performance pressure as markets continue grinding higher.

That’s often how momentum environments persist longer than expected.

The danger now is probably not excessive fear.

It may be growing complacency.

Because markets that repeatedly survive geopolitical scares eventually teach traders to ignore risk entirely.

That’s usually when positioning becomes crowded.

Not necessarily today.
But it’s something disciplined traders should stay aware of.

The Trading Lens Right Now

1. Respect Price Over Headlines

The headlines remain dramatic.

But price continues absorbing them constructively.

That matters more.

2. Don’t Confuse Optimism With Certainty

The market appears increasingly confident that some form of stabilization or de-escalation will occur.

But negotiations remain fluid, and volatility could return quickly if expectations change.

3. Strong Trends Often Persist Longer Than Expected

Trying to aggressively fade strong trends simply because they “feel extended” can become expensive.

The trend remains bullish until price proves otherwise.

4. Watch Oil Closely

Oil may remain one of the cleanest sentiment indicators in this environment.

If crude begins reaccelerating aggressively higher again, markets may start reassessing inflation and geopolitical risk very quickly.

The Bottom Line

The market continues climbing despite an environment that would normally create far more fear.

That’s usually a sign of underlying strength.

The S&P 500 successfully defended support.
Momentum remains constructive.
And traders appear increasingly willing to assume geopolitical tensions eventually stabilize rather than escalate.

For now, the market’s message remains fairly clear:

The trend is still higher.

But strong momentum environments also require discipline.

Because the longer markets ignore risk successfully…
the easier it becomes for traders to forget risk still exists.

Disciplined traders respect the trend.

But they also stay emotionally balanced enough to recognize when optimism starts becoming consensus.

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Beyond the Noise

May 10, 2026

Last Week: The Market Stopped Defending—and Started Accelerating

For weeks, the market’s message was fairly straightforward:

Bad news wasn’t breaking price.

That alone was impressive.

The market absorbed:

• FOMC uncertainty

• Mega-cap earnings

• Persistent geopolitical tension involving Iran

• Oil volatility

• Slowing growth concerns

…and continued pushing higher.

But last week felt different.

This was no longer just resilience.

This started looking more like momentum expansion.

The S&P 500 pushed to fresh record highs again.

Semiconductors surged.
Memory-chip stocks exploded higher.
AI infrastructure names accelerated.
And markets largely ignored geopolitical headlines once again.

The tone of the tape is changing.

The market no longer feels cautious.

It feels increasingly afraid of missing upside.

That’s an important transition.

AI and Memory Stocks Entered Another Gear

The biggest headline move last week came from semiconductors and memory-related names.

What had already been a strong AI infrastructure trend suddenly became more aggressive.

The narrative expanded beyond just the obvious leaders.

Now the market is chasing:

• Memory demand

• Data-center buildout

• Compute infrastructure

• Supply-chain beneficiaries

• Secondary AI ecosystem names

That’s classic momentum broadening.

And importantly:

It usually happens after a market has already proven its strength.

Investors stop asking:

“Can this rally survive?”

…and start asking:

“How much further can this go?”

That psychological shift matters.

Because strong momentum environments can persist far longer than expected.

But they also tend to create crowded positioning and emotional chasing behavior underneath the surface.

What the FMT RS Dashboard Is Showing

The FMT Relative Strength Dashboard continues to reinforce the bullish structure underneath this market.

Leadership remains concentrated in areas tied to:

• AI infrastructure

• Software and cloud

• Cybersecurity

• Industrial metals

• Semiconductor-related demand

That’s not defensive behavior.

That’s capital aggressively rotating toward growth, infrastructure, and expansion themes.

And importantly:

Participation is broadening—not narrowing.

That’s typically constructive.

This does not look like a fragile market.

At least not yet.

The Quiet Rotation Nobody Is Talking About

But there’s another development quietly emerging beneath the headlines:

Precious metals have moved back near the top of the RS dashboard.

And almost nobody is talking about it.

That’s interesting.

Because normally, in a pure “risk-on” momentum environment, gold and silver tend to lag aggressive growth.

But that’s not what we’re seeing.

Instead:

• AI momentum remains extremely strong

• while precious metals quietly improve in relative strength at the same time

That suggests something subtle but important:

The market may still be hedging uncertainty underneath the surface.

Whether it’s:

• geopolitical instability

• softer real-rate expectations

• long-term inflation concerns

• or simply diversification away from crowded AI trades

…the rotation is worth paying attention to.

And from a swing trading perspective, this may be one of the more interesting developments right now.

Unlike AI infrastructure—which is now heavily crowded and widely discussed—precious metals still feel relatively under-owned and under-watched.

That creates opportunity.

Not because traders should blindly chase miners after a strong move.

But because improving relative strength combined with lower emotional participation often creates cleaner swing setups.

Sometimes the best trades are not the sectors everyone is already talking about.

What Makes This Environment Tricky

This is where markets become psychologically difficult.

Strong trends create confidence.
Extended trends create complacency.

And eventually, momentum itself starts attracting more momentum.

That’s where we may be now.

The market no longer appears overly concerned with:

• geopolitical headlines

• oil spikes

• policy uncertainty

• or valuation discussions

Instead, the dominant behavior is:

Buy pullbacks quickly.
Stay exposed.
Don’t miss upside.

That can continue longer than most expect.

But historically, these are also the types of environments where reversals become sharper once they finally arrive.

Not because the trend is weak.

But because positioning becomes one-sided.

The Trading Lens Right Now

1. Respect the Trend

The trend remains bullish until price says otherwise.

Trying to aggressively fade strong momentum simply because things feel “too extended” can become expensive very quickly.

2. Avoid Emotional Chasing

There’s a difference between participating in momentum and emotionally reacting to it.

The best trades still come from quality setups—not fear of missing out.

3. Watch Rotation Carefully

Leadership expansion is healthy.

But the most interesting opportunities may not be the most crowded names anymore.

Precious metals, industrial metals, and secondary infrastructure groups deserve attention if relative strength continues improving.

4. Let Price Confirm Everything

Strong markets often ignore bad news.

But eventually, the reaction to news becomes more important than the news itself.

That remains one of the most important tells to watch.

The Bottom Line

A few weeks ago, the market was proving it could absorb risk.

Now it’s beginning to accelerate into momentum.

That’s a meaningful shift.

AI and semiconductor leadership remain dominant.
Participation continues broadening.
Price action remains constructive.

But underneath the headlines, another message may also be developing:

Capital is quietly rotating toward precious metals at the same time speculative growth momentum expands.

That combination is worth paying attention to.

Because the strongest markets often become strongest right before positioning gets crowded.

Disciplined traders don’t fight momentum.

But they also don’t confuse momentum with immunity.

They stay selective.
They stay flexible.
And they remember:

The goal is not to chase excitement.

The goal is to stay aligned with strength—without losing discipline when the market starts running uphill.

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