The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

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Quote of the Month: “It is to humanity’s credit that we remain restless in the midst of all of this progress. We continue to look forward, pushing the frontier further with new treatments, new tools, and new institutions that will help future generations in ways we can’t even picture yet.

But our lives today are a gallery of past generations’ heroic efforts to do the same. It serves us, and honors them, to recapture whenever possible the old sense of awe at these wonders that have long since become commonplace.” - from ‘Ordinary Abundance’ by Jordan Dworkin

Our Challenge of the Month - Switching Off:

Earlier this summer, I had a health scare (luckily, it was just a scare), and it forced me into a full evaluation of my current way of living.

I have always prided myself in how I manage my work-life balance, and have written about this countless times over the last four-and-a-half years in this newsletter. However, this felt more like a Mike Tyson “everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the face” moment.

It’s been in my nature to proactively manage the intensity and stress of Bounce over the last 7+ years through a cocktail of atomic habits, but I’ve never really had a big external event that pushed this over the edge (which shows how lucky I’ve been personally over this period).

This health scare has led me to reflect and learn a lot about myself through some cognitive behavioural therapy, but also in my assessment of how different forms of anxiety require different types of solutions. The biggest learning by far is that I can’t ‘control’ my way out of every situation.

I am, unashamedly, a bit of a control freak — I have a strong internal locus of control, and I like to believe my own actions, choices, and hard work directly shape the outcomes of my life. It’s a subconscious coping mechanism, no doubt. But that blissful optimism, paired with high productivity toward something I care about, is what I think leads to a fulfilling life.

Following this health scare, I’ve developed a new form of anxiety that I am struggling to control. It has required me to work harder at switching off (I am aware of the irony of this statement) and to be comfortable and curious with these uneasy feelings as they arise.

There’s no amount of exercise, healthy eating or saunas that will make this go away. There’s no amount of distraction through work, podcasts or reading that will make this go away. There’s no amount of downtime through sport, music or time with friends that will make this go away. No matter how much I plan to optimise my day, this won’t go away.

And that’s ok, the most important thing is that these feelings are incredibly normal and manageable, I just hadn’t experienced them yet.

What’s much better than ok is that upon my full evaluation of my current way of living, I realised there is nothing I would change. I’ve spent the last 10+ years building the life that I have now, and I can’t believe it’s all come together so well.

I don’t need to ‘switch off’ from Bounce because I’m burnt out or my work-life balance is off, I need to prioritise switching off so that I can continue to bring my best self to work every day. I owe this to the incredible people on the journey with me and need it to appreciate just how lucky I am to be doing what I’m doing.

This month, I spent ten days across Colorado & Donegal, one for a wedding and the other for a 90th birthday, two life events that really make you think about the things that matter in life. Between the 10,000 feet hike and the odd tear from a speech, I think I’ve got my mind back in a good place, and ready to embrace what the rest of the year has to offer.

Our Trend of the Month - Treating Life As Seasons:

Every so often I come across a Tweet that summarises something I have been thinking about, but not quite come to terms with. It happened again with the Tweet below.

In the past, when thinking about how to balance the areas of my life that are important to me I have referenced a stool. The things important to me in life, such as family, friends, health and work have each represented a leg of said stool.

But in reality the stool analogy implies they are of equal importance all the time, which is not the case. I rarely treat all elements of the equation equally. Instead, as the Tweet above suggests, we should think about life as seasons with mini seasons of recalibration.

This season is about throwing myself fully into work and getting as good as humanly possible at selling to advance my career and make asymmetric bets. Taking the late night calls and reading the 300 page sales books that could be 30 pages.

Amid the excitement of working in a hypergrowth company and trying to have a generational outcome, I am a month out from my first Ironman. Needless to say health/fitness is eating into areas I would usually spend sleeping, with friends, or family for a few months.

Next season is only around the corner and will look different again. It will be for my family and laying the foundations for later years. I will likely get fat, lazy and acquainted with Arthur Guinness once again.

Institutional education has instilled September as a reset, a de facto new year, so the mini season recalibration will come around again and the elements toggled up and down as desired. Every element still needs attention, both across the macro season and in the mini calibrations along the way.

Albert Einstein said “Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.” But that assumes we’re on one ride. We’re not - we’re on a different bike each season and the balance is in deciding which one to get on.

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Content Corner:

• Ordinary abundance here, a beautiful essay which gives a healthy dose of perspective on the everyday miracles in the world.

• How to fix your life in one day here, reposting this article as we near the end of the summer.

• Difficult questions to answer here, by Morgan Housel

• Nichols buys Irish vitamin drink brand VitHit for £64m here, an incredible success story for Gary Lavin who started the business in 2001.

• The path to a positive AI future here, an open memo by Mark Zuckerberg. Regardless of what you think of him, it’s worth reading the views of the people wielding the power.

• The productivity illusion here and why the most important measure in economics might be measuring nothing at all, a great read by Luke Puplett

• America’s loneliness gap here, one group of people is more isolated than anyone else, and it’s not men. A thought-provoking article by Nick Keppler.

• Moderna’s share price nearly doubles on hopes of cancer treatment breakthrough here

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

In part why I churned from Whoop, scoring was dictating my mood.

In Lisbon, average rent for a one-bed apartment is more than the average salary.

In the battle of the spritz - Hugo has dethroned Aperol.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Subscribe now

Quote of the Month: “When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.” - Henry Ford

Our Challenge of the Month - Winning:

In the last six weeks of Q2, we delivered more ARR than the three years of ARR from our first subscription client in 2022 to the end of 2024. That’s an insane thing to think, write or say out loud, but this month I had the pleasure of addressing everyone in the company to both recognise and attempt to explain what’s driven these recent wins.

The reality is, we did nothing differently. We worked hard, we made what we believed to be smart decisions, we allocated our time and money where we thought we’d have the most impact, and many uncontrollable, hard things happened.

So how did we end up having our best quarter ever? Well, it’s because good things happen when you get better every single day, week, month and year while everyone points in the same direction. As the African proverb says: “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together” and the graph below very much feels like the story of Bounce:

In my mind, the moment our trajectory at Bounce changed forever was meeting and hiring Rob Kiely exactly three years ago. He is our Chief Commercial Officer, de facto co-founder and a friend for life.

Since joining, he helped create and enforce our values, built every function from the ground up, made every commercial hire and has 15x’d our ARR despite limited resources and no industry experience (he also came from ‘big tech’ which everyone warned me against). He has enabled us to go far and fast, and in the postmortem of Q2, his fingertips are all over it.

As I think about what we should now do following this period, the unexciting answer is: nothing. Yes, we might take a few more bets and the team deserves some tangible rewards, but this feeling has been coming for a long time and we need to use it as fuel for the inevitably hard days to come. The days where a win feels like something that will never come.

It’s hard to explain what ‘winning’ feels like. In reality, since starting Bounce, I can’t say I’ve ever felt it until this quarter. Before, it had always been fleeting, and I’m almost afraid to admit that. However, this time, it feels different. There’s a momentum that we feel we can sustain. There’s a feeling that everything is clicking.

I suppose two things can be true at once. We have a long way to go to feel like we have ‘won’, but there is an unwavering feeling like I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else, doing anything else, with anyone else, and that feels pretty fucking good.

Long may that feeling last…

Our Trend of the Month - Inflation Uncovered Through Transfers:

After a great World Cup and a devastating loss for Messi’s Argentina, I’ve had to turn my attention to the off field elements of football. As any Chelsea fan will tell you, we need to keep a keen eye on the market, given the rate at which we trade players.

Similarly, outside of Cobham, there has been a plethora of high-profile big-money deals in recent years, most notably this summer. This got me thinking about the true economics behind some of these deals and adjusting transfers for inflation.

In nominal terms, this list includes the top 20 most expensive transfers. Most of which took place in recent years (funnily enough most didn’t work out either).

The results look remarkably different once Claude has adjusted for US M2 money supply growth, i.e., how much more money has been added to the system.

8 of the 20 spots on the adjusted table are deals that don’t even appear in the nominal top 20.

Every transfer that fell out of the top 20 is from 2021 or later (post big Covid prints) with zero exceptions. The modern high profile deals for Enzo Fernández, Grealish, Wirtz, Declan Rice, Caicedo, Lukaku, Bellingham, Kane and Antony all drop out of the adjusted table.

The emergent deals are for elite players in Zidane, Figo, Crespo, Ronaldo and Vieri. The early Galácticos era was a time of heavy spending, but the Neymar transfer was when fees really went mad.

Time and time again online, we hear football fans complaining about the lunacy behind some of these recent transfers, which in part is true but only tells half the story. Once adjusted for inflation, these fees are more reasonable, especially with the historical context of some of the big money deals of the past.

The issue with inflation is it’s very easy to hide and manipulate. Our governments change the methodology to calculate CPI, our supermarkets reduce the size of our products or decrease the quality of our goods.

Inflation is a hidden tax that most can’t quantify. Anecdotally, most people know things are getting more expensive but they are not sure by how much and how fast.

Maybe football transfers are the canary in the coal mine that shine some light on this instead.

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Content Corner:

• Ending respiratory infections by Intercept, a $500M bet to make respiratory infections like colds and flu a thing of the past here (this is the type of stuff we love seeing entrepreneurship and AI geared towards)

• Tim Ferris’s process for reigniting life here, someone who consistently delivers sage and practical advice

• Ireland’s Delivery Inability here by Sinead O’Sullivan, why Ireland fails to deliver its reforms, and pretty much everything else.

• YC’s call for start-ups here, identifying the areas they’re looking for companies to try disrupt and innovate in, always an interesting list

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

The shocking reality of sports betting in the US, despite one of the worst cost of living crises going on. Gambling is a tax on the poor, disproportionately affecting lower-income households, which makes the below even more depressing.

Just keep showing up.

A simple exercise on how to de-risk your life.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Subscribe now

Quote of the Month: “Learning and enjoyment are the secret to a fulfilled life. Learning without enjoyment wears you down, enjoyment without learning dulls you.” - Philosopher and author Richard David Precht offers two secrets to a fulfilling life (from James Clear’s newsletter this month).

Our Challenge of the Month - Managing Growing Processes:

For the last few months, I’ve been thinking a lot about when ‘process’ is good or bad? On one hand, it allows for consistency of procedure and execution. On the other, it encourages bureaucracy and limits speed.

Like most things in a start-up, you’re trying to find the right blend. A pet peeve of mine is advice that falls down on the extremes purely because it sounds like more compelling.

You’ll hear about Toby Lütke from Shopify cancelling all recurring meetings once a year, or Jensen Huang banning one-to-one meetings with his sixty direct reports. I even heard from Paddy that at Metaview, there’s no individual slack messages encouraged. I understand what these leaders are trying to do, but in my mind, it feels like implementing an extreme process to avoid…process?

In my mind, it comes down to a conflicting goal. We want to maintain speed, agility and ‘active decisions’ from the people we trust to run functions. But we also need to ensure that things are done the right way, particularly as we get bigger.

Similar to when you’re small, you can get away with less clarity in your direction as you’re a small group and not moving as quickly. When you’re bigger, any small sense of misdirection and suddenly you’re completely off course.

When you’re small, process doesn’t matter because you don’t even know what the ‘right’ way of doing things is. When you’re bigger, you may have identified things that work that would compound and elevate standards when repeated.

To mandate any way of working within functions strips leaders of their agency, so we try to leave them at it. Where I’ve seen process to be effective is in broader organisational structures and ways of working.

For example, a consistent onboarding to accelerate ramp periods and ensure the correct information is delivered is a good process. Effective delivery of feedback is a good process. Unnecessary recurring meetings or approvals for decisions is a bad process.

At Bounce, I feel like we’re in a flow when:

• Everyone has a single goal they are measured by, which every function is aware of so they can collaborate for win-win scenarios (past newsletter here)

• Leaders work with their functions to decide how to allocate their time and money towards hitting that goal, and review this weekly (past newsletter here)

• When meetings are required, they are short with clear objectives and outcomes set beforehand

• Decisions are made actively via our ‘trust, but verify’ (TBV) framework (past newsletter here)

This requires some process from the top-down, but relies more so on individuals who can make good decisions with good information. As a leader, I am constantly evaluating what is the right way of doing things for Bounce. The hard thing is avoiding ‘silver bullet’ style advice that sounds great, but lacks substance.

Our Trend of the Month - Public Unless Private:

Earlier this month, I read David Haber’s article “Everything Is Recorded Now” and it got me thinking about our communications policy at Metaview - PUP - Public Unless Private.

When working in investment banking, being on top of emails was absolutely critical, especially when working on multiple live deals. Naturally, I became a big ‘inbox zero’ guy. I made sure to have read, processed and acted on any relevant information by the end of the day.

So joining Metaview was quite the shock. DMs are effectively off-limits unless, of course, it’s a deeply personal matter. Instead, messages are shared in public Slack channels where everyone has access to all information.

Initially, I must admit, I thought that this was extreme. But over time, I’ve come to appreciate how transformative this policy has been. Having the ability to look at any information or audit any materials since the company’s inception has been mind-blowing.

Enter the AI Era:

In his post, David talks about one of the main ways that AI is reshaping work. By default most work discussions are brewing recorded now. Our CEO, Siadhal, wrote a similarly great piece on how this impacts our domain i.e hiring here.

Previously, across the recruitment process, context lived in individuals’ heads. From the recruiter who did the intake call to the hiring managers involved in various interviews, nobody had a full picture and context on the candidate.

Instead, we now have shared context distributed across the team, resulting in better decision making.

Company Culture:

It’s a top-down policy where all employees have access to all company information. At any point, I can look at our dashboards and see all the critical business metrics are now and historically.

This permeates through the organisation in a multitude of brilliant ways. Top of mind is the culture and environment created as a result.

Discussions take place in public forums, and the comfort of DMs is replaced. In other organisations, you might develop cliques or employees gossiping about one another via DMs. That’s been eroded at Metaview.

Our founders optimise for hiring high-agency, intelligent individuals capable of processing thousands of messages per day, making this all possible.

Processes:

This has made our company faster and more efficient, with information democratised across the business.

Take a simple pre-sales to post-sales handover document. Usually, this would involve the CSM having to chase the AE for the relevant materials and then perhaps a bit more back and forth on getting the document to a relevant format.

At Metaview, we have a host of internal agents that have contacts to everything that’s happening in the organisation. We can automate these processes to produce high-quality materials.

These agents have access to every call that’s recorded with a note taker, giving them an intelligence layer full of rich context and insight.

It’s unlikely every organisation adopts this radical approach, but disseminating information more radically is increasing and set to continue.

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Content Corner:

• Intercom acquired by Salesforce for $3.6BN here, one of Ireland’s best success stories and turnarounds, well worth a deep dive.

• A frontier without an ecosystem is not stable here, by Satya Nadella

• SpaceX IPO to turn 4000+ employees into millionaires here, following a remarkable few weeks

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Time for a test next time you’re at home

Despite the news, this is the best year in history to have ever lived in.

El Salvador’s tough policing is working.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “We read to know we are not alone” C.S. Lewis

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Our Challenge of the Month - A Culture of Celebration:

Recently, we had a leadership team get together, trying to give space for people to discuss what they’re seeing on the ground and how we can problem-solve cross-function. We’ve started doing this recently, as a lot of the time, you can’t see your nose from your face as a founder.

This is particularly true for myself as I’m on the road so much and rarely in close quarters with the people driving the business forward.

One of the debates that came out of it was the need for a ‘culture of celebration’. It’s one of the hardest things I’ve found to get right when building Bounce. The balance between celebrating the wins, and not losing focus. Do the paranoid survive, and the celebrators crumble?

At Bounce, we feel far more comfortable flying below the radar and living in pain. It almost feels like we all sadistically love the idea of solving hard problems and don’t take much value from a pat on the back. One of our investors gave us the compliment / criticism that we would run through a wall even if there was an open door beside it.

As Rónán has correctly called me out for in the past, if you’re going to take the harshest level of accountability on the losses, you have to take it on the wins, or else what’s the point? As we near fifty people around the world, it took one of our leaders to call out this reality we found ourselves in.

The simple fact is, it shouldn’t feel like we’re losing when we’re winning. Complacency isn’t an unavoidable outcome of delivering on your goals. When harnessed correctly, a culture of celebration provides momentum to keep doing the hard things, and rare moments of joy that our team deserves.

We’re now working towards practical ways that we can bring this in, beyond the odd pizza or a weekly Slack call-out. If we find anything that really works, I’ll let you know, but for now, this challenge lives rent-free in my head.

Our Trend of the Month - The Mom Test: Are Moms Always Right?

We often hear about how “the customer is always right”. It is taken as a truism, but increasingly I find myself thinking otherwise.

Last summer, prior to joining Metaview, I explored a bunch of ideas relating to recruitment and staffing. I spent hundreds of hours speaking to potential customers digging into their current workflows and how they could be improved with AI.

Rob Fitzpatrick’s book “The Mom Test” was an incredible resource on how to think about what customers are saying. The TLDR is that customers will lie to you. Not in a malicious sense, but human nature dictates this. They are trying to be helpful and supportive, much like your mom would.

Source: The Mom Test

Example of bad customer questions:

• “Would you use this?”

• “Do you think this is a good idea?”

• “How much would you pay for this?”

• “Would this feature help?”

People are terrible predictors of future behaviour. The Mom Test argues:

• Ignore hypotheticals

• Ignore compliments

• Ignore promises

• Focus on what people already do

The signal is in:

• current behaviour

• existing pain

• real spending

• hacks/workarounds

• frequency of the problem

Consistently, when speaking to prospects, we would uncover some “pain” but when probing deeper realise that no actions were being taken to solve this so called pain and no budget allocated to the problem.

The lessons have been immensely valuable for entrepreneurship more generally but also within sales at Metaview. I’ve found the best discovery questions are backward focused:

• “Tell me about the last time this happened.”

• “What did you do?”

• “Why was that hard?”

• “How often does this happen?”

• “What have you tried already?”

• “How much does this cost you today?”

Keith Rabois recently spoke on Lenny’s Podcast and was quite opposed to chatting with customers. He argued that it dilutes product vision and that customers are great at describing pain but not their desired end-state solution.

I now find myself more in the camp of “build it and they will come”. Perhaps the customer is not always right after all.

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Content Corner:

• A cure for pancreatic cancer on the way? Pancreatic cancer mRNA vaccine shows lasting results in an early trial here

• ‘Couch to 5K for AI’ by Lenny Rachitsky here, a free, fun, 30-day program that finally turns “I should get better at AI” into a daily habit.

• “Ireland needs more great startups, not more startup theatre” here by Joe Lennon, founder of Workvivo here

• Ireland is killing its entrepreneurs here, a podcast by David McWilliams after Ireland has officially become the worst country in Europe for young entrepreneurs.

• How every company can become a mini-AGI here, by Jack Dorsey.

• A scientist’s close call with Hantavirus aboard the M.V. Hondius Cruise here, one of two great New Yorker articles worth a read this month.

• How the Pentagon started taking U.F.O.s seriously here

• Irish workers 9th best paid in the world, according to the International Labour Organisation. And that’s taking into account the cost of living in Ireland and elsewhere here

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

My crusade to get more people reading, now backed by Claude too.

This triangle will take you places.

Has any entrepreneur had a greater impact than Elon?

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Subscribe now

Quote of the Month: “Actions seem to follow feeling, but really actions and feeling go together; and by regulating the action, which is under the more direct control of the will, we can indirectly regulate the feeling, which is not. Thus the sovereign voluntary path to cheerfulness, if our cheerfulness be lost, is to sit up cheerfully and to act and speak as if cheerfulness were already there.” ― William James

Our Challenge of the Month - Responding vs Reacting:

In early April, I had one of the top five hardest weeks since starting Bounce. It felt like doing twelve rounds with Mike Tyson but I had my hands tied behind my back.

The details aren’t important, but this particular punch involved an event completely out of our control and out of the blue with an important client. It got me thinking: what do I do when these things happen? My job as a leader is to respond, not react to events like these.

I felt just how important this approach is because when we got the news a few weeks ago, it initially rocked me and I let my reaction show in the office and via Slack in a way I’m disappointed by.

In the early days, this wouldn’t be as critical, but as we near fifty employees, being calm amongst the chaos and responding with clarity and conviction is essential.

Once the phase of emotional digestion happens, the first job of responding is to assess what’s actually happened. Your brain can play funny tricks of over-exaggerating good and bad news, your job is to clear that fog.

From there, I have to deal with the facts, understand the degree to which it actually impacts us and obsess over the controllables in the hours, days and weeks to come.

It’s amazing how much clearer my mind becomes once I reaffirm to myself:

• It isn’t as bad as I initially felt.

• I’ve dealt with far worse than this, and I’ve always figured it out.

• Solving problems like this is literally my job.

• How can I turn this into a positive thing for Bounce?

• Action precedes emotion, let’s get after it.

This mindset is not just about resilience and pragmatism, it’s about actionable optimism. A belief and process that a team can rally behind when it feels like everything is going wrong.

Responding means protecting your energy and focus as a company, reacting means killing it.

Responding means closing the laptop each day knowing you moved the needle on the most important things, reacting means you never close the laptop as you frantically try to work away the stress.

Responding gives your team clarity and confidence, reacting erodes their psychological safety.

By the end of the month, I felt like I had managed to untie one of the hands from behind my back, and even managed to land a punch - if I can keep doing that, we’ll be ok.

Our Trend of the Month - The Psychology of Running:

I’ve been thinking about writing something about running for quite some time, but now seems rather opportune.

This past weekend we saw the 2hrs barrier smashed in London. Not once but twice. Spare a thought for Yomif Kejelcha who ran his first marathon in under 2hrs and came second.

I ran Barcelona and Paris in recent months, having very different race experiences, which got me thinking about the psychology behind running.

In Barcelona, I went out alone with a faster group and couldn’t find a pack to run alongside. There was a steady stream of faster and better runners gradually passing me, sapping any positivity I was clinging onto. I steadily declined from my sub 3h10m goal.

In contrast, I ran Paris alongside my girlfriend, pacing her to a desired time of sub 3:39. We started slower, built into the race, and gradually passed many other runners whilst just marginally staying ahead of goal time throughout. Narrowly hitting the sub 3h40m goal.

Since these races, I came across the below chart which shows finishing times. The peaks at specific time intervals and the drop offs thereafter stood out. I started to think about the mental state of a runner in the hurt arena.

Source: New York Times Marathon Finishing Times Dataset

As seen above, the most common finishing time is four hours, with a long tail skewed to the right. But more interesting to me is that this curve should be smooth, more like a typical bell skewed with a long tail to the right.

Instead, at those 30-minute increments, we see these artificial spikes as a result of human psychology. People cluster to these thresholds by anchoring to the nice round target numbers. Pacers probably add to this.

It’s not just in running, we see these structures in test scores, sales targets and pricing too.

I think top performers are able to break this down more and push past the nice round limit from a marathon perspective, embrace the pain more, and smash through the thresholds.

Source: Terra API

Running is potentially the hardest endurance sport, but with the efforts shown at London marathon this weekend, who knows, we just might just see the next cluster around that coveted two-hour mark.

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Content Corner:

• Sam Altman may control our future, can we trust him? Another fascinating article by Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz on the leader of OpenAI here.

• USVC: Single basket of high-growth venture capital, for everyone here

• Hamming’s talk: PG thinks it’s so important that he reproduced it on his site. It’s one of the only things on his site written by someone else here

• Number Go Down: A good article on structural deflation here

• Catholicism Is Back: 38% increased in US adult converts here

• Ireland needs more great startups: Nice article from Joe Lennon from Workvivo i.e. someone who knows a thing or two here

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Over 40% of all US dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2022.

Gold reserves have eclipsed US fiat reserves

Ireland topping EU services exports

Just do it.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Subscribe now

Quote of the Month: Given the state of current journalism on certain international matters:

“If someone says it’s raining, and another person says it’s dry, it’s not your job to quote them both. Your job is to look out the fucking window and find out which is true.” - Jonathan Foster

Our Challenge of the Month - Public Speaking:

So far this year, I have 10 public speaking engagements committed across Europe & North America, with more likely to come. Each one requires me to present with a client of ours in front of 100-250 people.

Not only is public speaking to a high level exceptionally difficult, I have the additional pressure of these events representing a significant investment from us at Bounce (one that I’ve championed) and thus, we need a big return).

After years of frugality around marketing, it’s time that we showcase our vision to the industry, build our brand awareness and prove why we’re winning in our category. I need to be the face and voice of that, so I’ve been thinking a lot about how to improve my public speaking skills this month.

People who know me might assume public speaking comes naturally. This is intended as a compliment, but like many Irish people’s aversion to nice things being said about them, I receive it as an insult for two reasons:

1. I am generally extroverted, overly-enthusiastic and loud (people mistake this for what’s needed to speak well publicly).

2. The above traits are beneficial, but I have worked hard at my ability to speak publicly, and I still find myself frustrated with my lack of progress. I can assure you that whatever is up there does not feel natural.

As I prepare for five of these speaking events over the next 9 weeks, I wanted to interrogate what are the most important things I try to do when presenting. I could write a longer version of this, but here’s the spark notes in no particular order:

• First Impression: People will make their minds up in your first 30 seconds on stage. To win their attention, I lean into genuine enthusiasm, shock them with colloquialism in an unnecessarily professional environment, and pick a bold topic.

• Slides: Minimal and sleek. Similar to how you rarely hear “I wish that speech was longer” at a wedding, you won’t hear people wishing you had more text on your slide. You are the person they should be enthralled by, not the slide.

• Repetition: I’ll only aim to make a handful of the same important points, delivered in different ways. People can’t process and remember that much. Tell them what you’re going to say, say it, and then tell them what you said.

• Humour / Shock: Be bold in your communication. These people listening are humans, not robots. This also relaxes me as I feel like I’m telling a story to friends in a pub, not on stage speaking to people much more impressive than me.

• No Learning Off: Learning things off does not work for me. I’ve had my worst presentations trying to do this, I’m so focused on what’s in my mind (no matter how well I learn it), that I lose connection to every other part of my presenting ability (body language, eye contact, hands, movement etc.)

Finally, it’s essential that I work with, not against my emotions. I will never not be anxious stepping on stage. It’s completely natural for my heart rate to go up, my hands to shake and to want to do well.

After letting this turn into bad outcomes (speaking too fast, not moving around so my knee would shake, and losing that critical first 30 seconds), I now focus on working with my emotions:

• Body: It starts the day before, I avoid alcohol the evening before (which is harder than it sounds at these conferences) to prioritise sleeping well, I exercise early the morning of the talk and I’ll avoid coffee / bad foods in the lead up.

• Breath: I’ll get time to myself beforehand, and use breathwork to bring my heart rate down. In the moments before, I just focus on my breath, taking sips of water to control a dry mouth and I’ll trick myself into being excited for the session, not scared.

• Beginning: I will over-rehearse the first 30-60 seconds, as once I’m in my flow, the nerves fall away and I’m all good. A good start is all that matters for me personally.

Like many deeply uncomfortable things, the more you do it, the better you feel. The above is a framework and set of things I do that work for me, and is modelled off the best public speakers I’ve seen.

Our Trend of the Month - Marriage:

With many friends and people in my network getting engaged lately - most notably one of the co-authors of these pages - marriage season is rolling in!

Similarly, Rob Henderson’s excellent book Troubled, was one I could not put down and got me thinking a bit about one of his core messages - he could not envisage marriage as there were no settled role models in his life back then.

Marriage rates across Ireland, the UK, the EU and the US have generally been trending steadily downwards. Since 1964, the crude marriage rate in the EU has declined by c.50%, from 8 per 1,000 persons to 4 in 2023.

This decline has not been evenly spread. The proportion of prime working-age people who are single have increased more so in school leavers than those that went on to get a degree. There has been a rise in assortative matching as seen here.

Since 1968, singlehood rates amongst highly educated people have barely moved, yet for lowly educated people, the shift has been dramatic.

Across all cohorts, being single has increased. However, within the high education cohort, that increase is marginal; for medium/low education, that number disproportionately increases.

The causes of this trend are not clear. There are many things speculated, but economic forces collapsing male manufacturing earnings, women earning more in the workforce and no longer needing marriage for financial security, housing increases, debt increases, plus cultural shifts are likely to have accelerated this.

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Content Corner:

• Everything is a win when the goal is to experience here, an essay I read this month after one of those weeks where everything went wrong and nothing felt in my control - it helped a lot.

• Jack Dorsey sent the world into a frenzy here, cutting 40% of a 10,000 workforce due to AI automation despite record growth.

• Anthropic’s Labour Market Research Report here, showing where AI is underpenetrated today and where disruption is already taking place.

• Jack Pierce Launches Hatch105 here, the “internship for future entrepreneurs”.

• The Problem with Startup Ireland here, a very worthwhile read by Eamon Leonard.

• Travis Kalanick is Back here, with his new company and an hour-long interview on TBPN worth watching.

• Irish Saving Dilemma here, Irish households are sitting on almost €170 billion in deposits with most of that money earning next to nothing. The Central Bank estimated that Irish households may have left about €800 million in interest on the table in 2024 by not shifting cash to higher-yield deposits.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Memes:

The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

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Quote of the Month: “There are generally two types of LLM users, those that use it to learn everything, and those that use it so they don’t have to learn anything” - Mark Cuban.

Our Challenge of the Month - Thinking for Yourself:

Something I’ve been thinking about a lot this month is what the appropriate usage and engagement with AI is for my personal and professional life. The amount of content that is now generated from AI makes you think that the last bastion of differentiation lies in unique, creative thought and independent thinking around problems and solutions.

How can you leverage the best knowledge / resources in the world, while maintaining the ability to think for yourself? One of the most talked about things with the rise of using AI tools is how little people think, research or write for themselves now.

I’ve seen this at Bounce, and I have now developed an unhelpful bias to assume someone hasn’t done the work when I see something sent to me in that format you know is exported from a LLM.

Did they actually make a plan, or just get AI to generate one from them? If people rely on AI for the solutions to challenges in their role, they’ll act and operate like everyone else (e.g. sales emails, content creation, pitch decks, discovery questions, marketing plans etc.)

Similar to the power of delayed gratification, the negative impact of the countless times in a day you choose the easy AI-generated solution won’t come immediately in the results. It will compound over days, weeks, months, years until we get to a point in a meeting where you are simply unable to give a good answer to a basic question.

Is everyone going to become stupid or completely reliant on these tools? I already have the belief that most people aren’t intentional about what they want. If you add a lack of individuality into the mix, we may as well let the robots take over.

The reason I enjoy thinking, writing and synthesising my thoughts every month without checking how many people read this newsletter is that I already feel worried that if I don’t, I’ll disconnect from what I actually think and feel. Before, the fear was people would think / say / write things to virtue signal or project. Now, my fear is people will all converge on the same things.

I generally subscribe to the belief that those that are at the frontier of AI adoption in their role will “win”, I’ve even built a business reliant on implementing this type of change in our buyers. However, in a world already bereft of thinking for oneself, this could be the technological waves that makes us indistinguishable from one another.

Our Trend of the Month - Covid Induced Cassandra Complex:

Since the 2020 lockdowns, as regular readers can attest to, it has become clear to me how the monetary system is broken and fiat is failing. That said, I had many gaps around the historical context. Books like 1931 Debt, Crises and the Rise of Hitler and When Money Dies helped, but having recently read Lords Of Finance, it tops the list.

The linkages between that era’s central bankers are fascinating and it brilliantly paints how the US rose to power. After the war period, at Bretton Woods, the US controlled the lion’s share of the world’s gold, plus had the biggest and baddest army. You win the war, you dictate the rules.

The magnitude of German inflation around the war period was frightening. The economic suffering and resentment for large war reparations riled up the Germans. Ultimately setting the scene for Hitler’s rise.

The below chart pricing Marks in gold terms is mindblowing. I usually think of currency failure as a linear one way movement. Instead the wild swings can move unpredictably in both directions.

Source: The Ends of Four Big Inflations, Thomas J. Sargent (1982)

This month, we have seen interesting movements in gold prices too. 10% moves within an hour.

Source: The Informationist

The debasement trend will almost certainly continue, that said, it is increasingly difficult to know how it all shakes out. Perhaps lessons can be learned from German merchant Jakob Fugger who came through this period remarkably well. He balanced his portfolio into 25% cash, 25% equities, 25% gold and 25% real estate and re-balanced. In fact, this portfolio construction is the bedrock of Dalio’s all weather portfolio.

Since Covid, it now feels like more awareness has been raised on the frailty of fiat. Mainly by Dalio, but lesser known macro-economists too. My cassandra complex is dissipating.

Yet nothing stops this train.

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Content Corner:

• A masterclass in leadership from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella here

• Patient capital will eat the world here by Will Manidis.

• 11 industries for Ireland here by Tom McCarthy

• The great debate on the future, and what AI is going to bring here by Matt Shumer, and the counter argument given by Will Manidis here. I’d recommend reading both, on the theme of independent thought this month.

• The world order has broken down here, by Ray Dalio

• A truly exceptional gag here on the pseudo-AI expert in Silicon Valley.

• OpenClaw founder joins OpenAI here, after ‘Moltbook’ went viral on X in recent weeks.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Being above average in middle age is key for health in old age and longevity.

We overcomplicate things too often.

13, 14 and 15 in play right now.

The Cantillon effect, which we have mentioned numerous times, depicted easily.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “By far, the greatest danger of Artificial Intelligence is that people conclude too early that they understand it.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky, an American artificial intelligence researcher and writer on decision theory and ethics, best known for popularizing ideas related to friendly artificial intelligence.

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Our Challenge of the Month - Sustaining Hypergrowth:

There’s been three distinct moments of magic since starting Bounce that I will always remember. They are moments that I hope every founder gets, but many don’t get the privilege to experience.

First, on my 21st birthday, I stood in a white-lit, stuffy computer science lab with my co-founders at Trinity College for our first day ‘whiteboarding’ Bounce six weeks out from a student Dragon’s Den competition. I left that room at the end of the day with a sense that this is all I wanted to do for the rest of my life. That feeling is the flame that can flicker, but should never go out.

Second, is the feeling of ‘product-market fit’. An unstable proof that you are solving a problem that the market wants, and have an ability to sell to those customers at a price point that allows you to scale. The only way to describe this feeling is “oh shit, they actually want it!”, and it came after landing our first set of annual subscriptions with global brands we had no right to work with at the time.

Third, is when you are in ‘hypergrowth’. When you are at least doubling ARR year-on-year and building the plane as you’re flying it. This is where we’ve been since we crossed €1M ARR and it’s what you work tirelessly at to sustain. We find ourselves with a rapidly growing set of clients, employees and geographies rubbing up against one of the largest technological disruptions since the web dotcom boom - we’re in the thick of it.

The interesting challenge this month is that you need to continue harnessing the two prior feelings in order to sustain the third. That feeling I had seven years ago with my co-founders is the exact feeling I had walking into work on January 5th, it’s that energy and enjoyment that gets you through the incessant pain of building a start-up.

That beautiful harmony when we first felt strong product-market fit is in constant flux, and can never be taken for granted. The moment any element of your business changes (i.e. the market, the product, the model or the channel), you also have to change. Inertia breeds complacency, complacency opens the door for someone faster and better to win.

Finally, it’s imperative you have a firm grip on the levers for hypergrowth, and the blockers to scale. This allows you to work smart, then hard. I have a very small number of things I attempt to move the needle on each day, and actively choose to avoid others even though they can appear important on the surface.

Doubling ARR becomes a simple calculation of controllables:

• Drive qualified leads based on most proven channel (e.g. outbound sales team)

• Achieve mild improvements quarter-on-quarter in win rate and ACV

• Keep NRR above 100% (i.e. grow every customer each year)

• Hire the people you need in each function on time

Hypergrowth won’t last forever, nor will the challenges that come with it, they’ll just evolve. As the winds change, so will we. We’ll continue focusing on time and capital allocation to climb the next peak, and keep this dream alive.

Our Trend of the Month - Entrepreneurship Through Acquisition:

Having spent the summer ruminating on a bunch of ideas, I’ve been reminded that the path to starting a company is tremendously difficult. Having a novel idea, insight or USP is tough.

That said, another pathway exists - Entrepreneurship Through Acquisition (ETA) - which is still very difficult but instead of building a start-up from scratch, you acquire an established profitable business from owners that are seeking to exit and likely retire.

There are a number of ways to do this, but essentially you raise money to purchase a company. This can be self-funded or you can raise money from institutional investors for a search fund. The funds are mainly for salary and deal fees and should be enough to allow for around two years of searching.

Source: Stanford 2022 Search Primer

The United States has a well developed and growing search fund ecosystem. In part due to more favourable financing conditions such as the SBA loan and greater risk tolerance. But the European ecosystem is maturing, especially in the Spanish and UK markets. As you can see below there has been a large uptick in the number of funds in recent years.

Source: IESE Search Primer 2022

Using data regarding first time traditional searchers (i.e. not self funded) from the US and Canada we can see the distribution of returns. Acquiring a company is rather difficult.

However, across Europe, there is a Silver Tsunami of business owners coming to retirement age without a succession plan. These owners have no management team or children to take over the business and build it further. Many of these owners have a disdain for Private Equity and do not want to sell to their competitors. This is where opportunity exists. Legacy.

Frequently, I hear from people in my network that they’d like to run a company some day, but don’t have an idea or thesis to pursue. Perhaps, there is another entry point, especially for those with deal experience.

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Content Corner:

• If you have multiple interests, do not waste the next 2-3 years here, a brilliant essay by Dan Koe.

• Standing Out in 2026 here in a world of AI, an excellent read from Lulu Cheng Meservey

• Apple picks Google’s Gemini AI for its big Siri upgrade here

• The Power of Inversion here, explained by Charlie Munger

• Best of Lenny’s Newsletter here, the 25 best posts from the past year, plus a few all-time classics from one of my favourite tech newsletters.

• OpenAI launches ChatGPT Health here, taking another bold step forward.

• Bill Ackman on getting through a high-pressure, stressful, and negative period in your life here. Regardless of what you think of him, this is sage advice.

• Irish start-up, Luminate Medical, raises $21M here to expand at-home cancer treatment solutions, taking total funding over $50M.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

The US issued a revised food pyramid, with a whole foods bias.

The S&P has hit record fiat highs once more. But in gold terms around 1929 levels.

Shopify founder sounding the alarm on coding AI advancements.

Memes:

On the back of influencers and OnlyFans models dominating the ‘extraordinary’ artists visa here…

Geopolitics today summed up.

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “The purpose of setting goals is to win the game. The purpose of building systems is to continue playing the game” - James Clear, author of Atomic Habits

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Our Challenge of the Month - Goal Setting:

Almost three years ago in this newsletter, I spoke about New Year’s Resolutions, something I have gone from being obsessed with in quite a toxic way to something that barely registers in my mind come January.

However, goal setting is one of those things that rises to the top of most people’s minds at this time of year, usually fuelled by your worst habits accelerating over the Christmas period. This drives a psychologically vulnerable state when you arrive into the new year demanding you be the best version of yourself, in work or your personal life.

Since I’ve already spoken about personal goal setting, I thought I’d give my perspective on how I think about it at Bounce. The first thing to note is that goals matter, as long as they are done right (see James Clear article here on ‘systems vs goals’).

Last month, I wrote about running your own race and this ties back to the first mistake companies make - they set goals based on other people’s expectations, and not their own. Your company’s goals must be rooted in your own definition of future success.

Secondly, brevity and clarity are your best friends. The best goals are when there’s one thing a person is driving towards, it’s easy to measure and they can actually make progress towards it each day. In Bounce’s commercial team, we have a leader owning and running a team around each of the below metrics:

• Qualified Opportunities: The amount of high-intent customers that come into our pipeline each month, generated from business development or marketing.

• Annual Recurring Revenue: The amount of recurring subscription revenue we add each month.

• Net Revenue Retention: The amount of recurring revenue growth we see in each customer month-on-month.

Finally, choose what psychology your team responds best to when goal setting. This is something we’ve gotten wrong at Bounce over the years. There’s a school of thought, often seen in the OKR model (Objectives & Key Results), where someone should be hitting 60-70% of their goals, as hitting 100% would mean you weren’t ambitious enough.

I disagree. We bought into that idea of setting very hard goals to drag up performance, but what it often left was people working tirelessly and feeling like it was never good enough, despite objectively great performance. When you also tie their variable pay to these types of goals, this adds further pain and disaffection.

This year is the first that people are consistently hitting their goals, causing an energy and momentum that has been transformative to our business. When people are humming, it seems like they deliver more. Throw in a few accelerators on their variable pay, and suddenly exceptional results start to follow (see my previous ‘Great Company’ newsletter here).

So, when you take out the journal on January 1st in a personal or professional sense, remember: make sure you’re running your own race, be clear and concise, and figure out what psychology you respond best to.

Happy New Year!

Our Trend of the Month - Uranium’s Supply Squeeze Set Up

The silver market highlighted the frailty of parts of our current system over the Christmas period as prices surged to over $80/oz. It got me thinking about the uranium market.

As I wrote about in our August-23 Newsletter, I still think nuclear energy fears are overblown. So, as a recovering investment banker, I made some slides.

In short, nuclear energy is safe, clean and cheap. For this reasons, I think nuclear will be more broadly embraced over the coming decades. This will magnify the structural supply and demand imbalances that exist in the uranium market today.

Firstly, nuclear energy does not emit carbon, has a relatively low mortality risk and radiation concerns are overblown.

Secondly, nuclear power is cheap. Nuclear’s Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is very compelling, plus as it is so energy dense it is not very resource intensive and has historically been resilient to input increases.

Finally, nuclear energy is a very clean energy source, it produces minimal waste and is a better use of space than other energy sources.

For these reasons, the world will soon wake up to the fact that we need more of our energy needs coming from nuclear energy given its baseload impacts. Especially with increased energy pressures for AI, data centres, et al.

Uranium demand is already accelerating. Existing mines can’t keep up. It is not a cyclical issue. This is structural.

Despite the imbalances, the uranium squeeze has not happened yet. It will be interesting to watch how this unfolds. It seems the next squeeze is already in the data.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - OpenFX:

OpenFX is one of the coolest companies you have likely never heard about. In May, the team raised $23m from Accel, NFX, Lightspeed Faction and Castle Island Ventures.

The company enables you to move money more freely across borders by using stablecoins

• Settlements occur in seconds, not days

• Costs are reduced from percentage points to basis points

• Trade execution is programmatic (via APIs) and 24/7/365

These efficiencies are transformative to working capital and margins. Plus does not close for lunch.

Source: Company Website

After 18 months of building in stealth, the team, led by Prabhakar Reddy (repeat founder that grew FalconX to $8Bn valuation), came out of stealth with a bang announcing they had already processed $10Bn in annualised cross-border payment volume.

Since then, things have been going vertical.

Source: Company Website

The team is rapidly adding more currencies and improving their fiat coverage. Most recently their LATAM coverage has improved and next year much of South East Asia comes online.

Global payment rails are slow and cumbersome and now struggle to keep pace with the speed of modern global trade.

The incumbents are not incentivised to change and improve things, so teams like OpenFX are changing the dynamics.

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Content Corner:

• Lyn Alden’s latest newsletter on the so called debasement trade here

• The number of people who go bankrupt a year due to medical debt here, a wild statistic on the United States.

• Baseline’s New Pre-Seed Founder Fund here has launched, aiming to invest in 50 founders.

• Paramount vs. Netflix Bidding War for Warner Bros here, a fascinating acquisition hunt that will have profound impacts on the future of entertainment.

• Irish Winner of the 2025 Excel Championship here, Diarmuid Early.

• Dan Kiely on Ireland’s ‘Scale Up’ Problem here

• Steam, Steel & Infinite Minds here, by Ivan Zhao.

• Jevons Paradox for Knowledge Work here, by Aaron Levie

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

The delate between US and European defense is quite staggering.

What happened in 1971?

Bukele’s heavy policing in El Salvador has dramatically decreased murder rates.

The no. of TVs you have at home correlates to Leaving Cert points. Same in the US.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.” - Warren Buffet in his farewell letter to shareholders.

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Our Challenge of the Month - Running your own Race:

I’ve realised this month that comparison is not only the thief of joy, but of focus when building a start-up. My co-founders and I spent time in Web Summit & San Francisco this month, the centre of the universe for people who self-identify above all-else as a founder.

One of the biggest mistakes these founders make is not defining their own path to success, and then working tirelessly to deliver against that specific goal. Instead, a lot of the people I met are warped by a false sense of what they ‘should do’, driven by a desire to be respected and liked in the industry.

For anyone who knows the full story of Bounce, it is safe to say that we have run our own race (not by design in the early days). We entered the industry out of university with no expertise, we iterated on our solution incessantly, and it took us longer than we wanted to hit our first million in revenue. This has left us with a long-held company imposter syndrome.

However, in recent years, we’ve started to take our unique path and approach to scaling as a point of pride. Once you realise you can’t control everything (see Building a Great Company), you start to narrow your focus into a very clear definition of success and how you want to achieve it.

This focus is helped by our last two years of growth and not needing any further venture capital, but it hadn’t shaken that imposter syndrome until this month. These start-ups that we sought to be like from afar in terms of excitement, growth, fundraising and product-market fit were all shocked when they heard how good we were actually doing.

It’s like how athletes need to be careful around publicising what injuries they might have due to the risk of losing their insurance, start-ups need to protect their ‘story’ of growth so they don’t risk losing the chance at their next fundraise.

It’s a good lesson in life, but very important in the start-up world: most people are either spoofing or hiding their own problems. Once I heard the problems from many of the founders I spoke to this month, I was pretty happy with the ones I was facing right now at Bounce (this is equally as toxic a thought process, but sometimes you can’t help those thoughts creeping in).

We have one of the greatest privileges any start-up could ask for; we are now in control of our own destiny. Our focus has to remain on execution and enjoyment, and not on the noisy world around us.

Our Trend of the Month - The Gold to Oil Ratio:

The gold to oil ratio measures the number of barrels of oil it takes to equal the price of one ounce of gold. The ratio is a measure of economic performance by signaling the overall health and mood of the global economy.

A high ratio means that gold is relatively expensive and oil is relatively cheap, suggesting increased demand for safe haven assets like gold. Conversely, a low ratio suggests gold is cheap compared to oil, pointing to higher demand for energy or a shift towards riskier assets. Historically, the ratio has hovered between 10 and 30.

Source: Macrotrends

As Tobias Carlisle pointed out a few months ago, at 6 standard deviations above its long-term trend, the ratio is high, suggesting a slowdown.

Additionally, the brilliant Luke Gromen (an immense source of knowledge in recent years), thinks that the gold to oil ratio will go to 100+ and stay there, as mentioned in his latest prediction.

Source: Deutsche Bank

Luke’s view is that since the petrodollar system was introduced in 1973, there has been a heck of a lot more oil in dollar terms burned than there has been gold in dollar terms. Therefore, he thinks the ratio should have blown out to between 200x and 1,000x.

As seen in the graph above, it has not. Instead unallocated gold derivatives (paper gold), mostly centered in London, acted as a release valve and were allowed to expand instead of the gold to oil ratio. This was done to support the US Treasury market.

Today, this system is no longer in anyone’s interests, the US included. No other nation would want their currency as the reserve asset due to the impact on exports and competitiveness. The only asset big enough to absorb these flows is gold, but to work gold needs to go up relative to oil.

Lets see how it plays out - both in dollar and real terms!

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - Starcloud:

Sometimes you read about a start-up, and think “you must be joking”. That happened this month when I read about Starcloud, the company creating data centres in space that offer 10x lower energy costs and reduce the need for energy consumption on Earth.

The company was founded 21 months ago, and recently deployed its first Nvidia H100 via SpaceX here. They raised $21M in an extended Seed Round after being in YC’s summer cohort last year. They now boast a cap table that includes Nebular (Irish venture investor Finn Murphy’s fund), NFX, Y Combinator, FUSE, Soma Capital and scout funds from Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia.

Everyone has probably heard about the concerns regarding energy consumption and data centres in the age of AI, no more so than in Ireland where we fight the balance between remaining a technological hub for global companies and hitting our emission targets in Europe (see here).

Despite many of us hearing about this challenge, it takes a special type of brain to view this problem, and think beyond what we thought was possible to find a solution.

Starcloud’s Co-Founder & CEO, Philip Johnston, said “In space, you get almost unlimited, low-cost renewable energy. The only cost on the environment will be on the launch, then there will be 10x carbon-dioxide savings over the life of the data center compared with powering the data center terrestrially on Earth.”

As someone who had his first self-driving car experience this month, sometimes you have to sit back in awe of what humans are capable of doing with technology.

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Content Corner:

• How to Keep Winning here, a blog by Amjad Masad, co-founder and CEO of Replit.

• John Collison’s Irish Times Article here on how Ireland is going backwards, and how to get it moving. As a counter-argument, I’d recommend this podcast.

• Why I Run here a beautiful article about fatherhood, careers, addiction, and running.

• The impact of AI on Hiring here, companies that have adopted AI aren’t hiring fewer senior employees, but they have cut back on hiring juniors ones.

• Launch of a Home Robot here by Neo, the world is about to get very strange.

• SolidRoad’s Open Letter to Join Them here, two of Ireland’s best early-stage founders.

• Investor Michael Green wrote a great piece here, titled ‘My Life is a Lie’

• We all need more agency here, a great article on high agency.

• Wisdom from Warren Buffet here in his farewell letter to shareholders.

• Valor Atomics Splits the Atom here becoming the first start-up in history to do so, after only raising $19M in seed funding.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

It has been a tough start to the century for UK earners.

Central banks have significantly increased their gold tonnages in recent years.

Employment in the West has benefitted from Covid changing working patterns.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “Living doesn’t cost much, but showing off does.” - Jeffrey D. Sachs

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Our Challenge of the Month - First Principles Thinking:

This month, more than most, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking and reflecting on some critical decisions I have to make at Bounce. In the past, I’ve written about time and capital allocation as the two most important decisions I make every day. Now, entering Q4 and looking to 2026, this period of the year feels like those daily decisions have more jeopardy than ever.

Central to making good decisions is thinking from first principles, but it’s incredibly hard to do well. That’s because it requires an intense search for the truth by asking “why” to every assumption you hold. Deeper than that, it involves steelmanning one’s own view of every perceived reality you have about your business and the arena you play in.

It’s about deconstructing problems into their most basic truths, and then rebuilding solutions from the ground up. At Bounce, we know the problem we are trying to solve, but as technology rapidly evolves, the solution we’re building and our strategy for acquiring customers must evolve as our competitive landscape shifts and the way our buyers behave remains consistently inconsistent.

If you think about the role of technology in any industry, it is to make things better, faster and cheaper. As Intercom cleverly proclaimed on their San Francisco billboard, a buyer should expect nothing less than choosing all three - the time for tradeoffs is over in the age of AI.

How can we deliver this at Bounce? How can we be a leader rooted in customer-centricity, and not a follower based on what competitors are doing? As Morgan Housel wrote about in his book “Same as Ever”, how can we focus more on what is not going to change? These are the things you must grapple with as a founder.

A see-saw between conviction and doubt, between optimism and realism, between seeking truth and accepting nothing is objective in the world of building a company. These are the thoughts that occupy my mind as I run, walk, commute, and try to sleep. The answers to these questions is what drives my decision-making.

Knowing when to sit with these thoughts, or confront them in front of a whiteboard is pretty critical. This month, instead of letting them stir, I find myself tackling them one-by-one. The result is a bit more clarity, a lot more conviction and a calmer mind - a priceless asset to have when there are endless fires to put out and endless opportunities to pursue.

It’s one thing knowing what the problem you face is, it’s another thing knowing what to do. All I can expect of myself is to gather the right information, think from first principles and back my decisions.

Our Trend of the Month - The Geopolitical Battleground and Gold:

For the past 40 years, the United States’ economic strategy has, in short, been long the dollar, US treasuries and service jobs; and short commodities, factories and gold.

China has taken the other side of that trade for the past 20 years and since the US seized Russian FX Reserves, the trend has only accelerated. The US now realises that they are on the wrong side of this trade and trying to course correct.

Source: Bloomberg, Shanghai Gold Exchange and Steno Research

As widely reported, the Covid pandemic highlighted many US supply chain frailties and dependence on China. Less widely reported, is that the Ukraine Russia conflict hammered this point home, with the US unable to supply Ukraine with military equipment to the extent requested. The economic policies of the US have left them dependent on their rival China for military and weapons production.

Source: International Energy Agency

As seen above, China dominates the supply of rare earth metals, plus the refining of rare earth metals. The geopolitical consequences of this are enormous with China having a lot of leverage, as used in tariff negotiations, where they have started rejecting USD for rare earths.

In response, the US is striking trade deals with Australia and Argentina to support the Peso and get access to precious rare earth metals. Meanwhile, the power of US Treasuries is being eroded by BRICS nations and gold is increasingly being favoured.

Source: Luke Gromen

The global monetary world order continues to evolve. Being on the right side of the trade will be imperative.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - Tracelight:

When ChatGPT first launched, it quickly became clear that much of the work I was doing as an Investment Banking Analyst could and likely would soon be automated. My key responsibilities of creating PowerPoint presentations and conducting financial analysis within excel were not far from being disrupted.

Naturally, I’ve become quite excited when seeing start-ups launching their AI agents for financial modelling, but no more so than Tracelight given that founder Janek spent time at 11x (launch video here). Janek is joined by Peter Fuller, a former McKinsey consultant and Entrepreneur First team lead and ex Jane Street engineer Aleksander Misztal, making an impressive founding team.

Tracelight has raised a +$3.5m seed round to build an AI assistant for financial modelling in excel, to speed up analysis and eliminate errors.

Beyond speed, with so much AI slop out there, it is imperative that the work of agents is top quality, so Tracelight’s rigorous focus on quality is awesome to see. Clearly users are seeing the value too.

Source: Company Data on LinkedIn

There will always be a place for junior bankers in preparing materials and analysis, but perhaps teams will soon manage with less headcount. Juniors will be more free to think through workflows and empowered to be more efficient on the job.

Here’s hoping my comrades are facing the dreaded “plz fix” a little less often!

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Content Corner:

• How Elon Works, by David Senra here, a synthesis of 30+ years, 60+ hours of reading by the one and only, Founders podcast host.

• Has time on social media peaked? This graph and post here is fascinating.

• ‘I raised millions for our tech start-up with no Leaving Cert’ – how Barespace made it through hard work here, the story behind the Irish start-up digitising the hair and beauty industry, after raising €2.9m to accelerate its UK and European expansion

• How international social media users are stoking Ireland’s migration debate here, a fascinating and dangerous trend happening all around the world.

• TD Albert Dolan launches the largest purchase order/payment tracking system in the state here, covering €78.5 billion worth of spend.

• Paul Graham’s six-step process for starting new companies here, on the theme of first principles thinking in start-ups.

• The only thing that matters, by Marc Andreessen here, an oldie but a goldie on what matters for a new start-up.

• Waymo Comes to London here, self-driving cars in London traffic? That’ll be mental.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

One of our greatest tragedies.

The shortsighted actions of the US freezing rival FX reserves has had consequences.

There are sub 90 IQ people getting PHDs.

​

Memes:

The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life”. Olympic weightlifter and poet, Jerzy Gregorek.

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Our Challenge of the Month - Doing the Hard Thing:

One of the things that has dramatically changed in my life recently is how much I have to travel for work. Not in a romantic, entrepreneurial way, but in a way that makes me question why I’m even doing this.

The longest uninterrupted period I’ve been in the same bed for this year was four weeks in February when I first moved to New York. There has not been a single flight I’ve been excited to get on, but it’s a sense of duty and expectation that pushes me through security each time.

However, this month as I stared down the barrel of Dublin, London, New York, Atlanta & Chicago trips, I realised it’s something else that’s keeping me going. It’s that feeling that doing the hard thing has always rewarded us at Bounce.

Every time I think of a hard decision I didn’t want to make, it ended up being positive for the business. Whether it’s hiring or firing, saying yes or no to a client, moving to a new city to establish a presence or staying in Ireland, the harder decision always ends up being the right one.

I’d go as far to say that making progress in a start-up is just a very long period of making difficult, uncomfortable daily decisions that push you towards some desired end state. Our mind can always trick us into thinking “we don’t have to do that to be successful”, but in a lot of cases, it’s not the case.

This isn’t a pity post, and it certainly isn’t a fetishisation of hustle culture in building a company. We’ve been very lucky in our journey at Bounce, and every hard decision I have to make is made easier by the exceptional people I have around me and the foundations we’ve built to take calculated risks repeatedly.

My realisation this month was that, similar to the confidence that builds when you take risks and they pay off, I have a similar feeling of resilience building every time I make a hard decision and we’re rewarded.

Delayed gratification is a drug that every founder needs to take. By having the right ‘why’, the right people around you and the right mindset, the hard decisions will become less hard and the rewards will taste that much sweeter when they do come.

I know there’ll be a time in years to come when I look back on this period of my life and think “how the hell did I do that?”, but I have to believe these moments of personal sacrifice will be worth it in the end.

At the very least, there’s comfort in knowing that if it doesn’t work out, I could not have done any more.

Our Trend of the Month - The Fourth Turning:

This month’s trend takes a longer term view than past letters. As, in recent times, it feels as though events are getting less explainable and more bizarre. Society is not working for many people, as they expect, and there is a growing sense of disillusionment.

It is argued that although history does not repeat, it often rhymes. With that in mind, since Neil Howe and William Strauss co-authored The Fourth Turning in 1997, their work has been a neat framework for assessing cycles. Plus, it has been eerily predictive.

They argue that history follows recurring cycles, called saecula. Each saeculum lasts around 80 to 100 years (roughly the lifespan of a human) and can be divided into four turnings. They suggest that we are now in the latest Fourth Turning i.e. Crisis.

When we think about these waves from a long-term debt cycle lens, things become much less theoretical and more explainable.

As debt builds up over 50 to 100 years there eventually needs to be a painful restructuring through inflation, defaults, or currency debasement.

Ray Dalio’s recent writing on income inequality, populism and debt cycles also map closely to the idea of The Fourth Turning.

When governments globally collectively rapidly increase the money supply, the benefit of this capital inflow does not trickle down equally. Instead it disproportionately impacts already wealthy asset holders. The Cantillon effect.

Consequently, income inequality increases and we get more social and political division, which in turn leads to more populism on both the right and left. There is more of an “us vs them” mindset, trust in institutions falls and geopolitical tensions increase.

Source: Ray Dalio

For many it feels as though the house is on fire. The occupants are aware something is wrong, but can’t see the source of the flames.

So, it is hardly surprising that we are seeing more political “black swan” events. We now have exacerbated political tensions over hot topics like migration and tensions increased, yet there is little to no focus on the root cause of the issues.

Thankfully, after every Fourth Turning, we return to the First Turning and an era of prosperity, although the interim period is unlikely to be quite so prosperous.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - DataShips:

The pipeline of great Irish companies continues to grow, and one that grabbed the headlines earlier this year is Dataships following their $7M Series A round to “turn compliance into a growth engine for e-commerce” brands.

The company was founded by Michael Storan and Ryan McErlane in 2019, after they realised compliance with data privacy regulations like GDPR could be a positive force and a growth engine, not just a burden.

Storan had sold an online gaming company and McErlane worked in enterprise compliance at EY & Accenture. They are a classic story of experiencing the problem themselves, and spotting the opportunity (similar to the story of Eoin Hinchy in Tines here).

Their goal was to help businesses use compliance to grow their marketing lists and revenue by optimizing consent at the point of sale, rather than treating it as a necessary evil.

However, the thing that caught my attention was Ryan’s two-part founder story on how it all started (part one here, part two here). A story of two friends with deep domain expertise and the willingness to have a crack at building something.

Another alumni of the NDRC Accelerator from 2021, Ireland continues to improve the ecosystem for founders with a global ambition.

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Content Corner:

• A Conversation with the Founder of ‘Alpha School’ here, a fascinating interview on what an AI-powered two-hour school day could look like

• Launch of “Full Self-Driving Software” via Replit here, a truly incredible rate of innovation detailed here from Founder & CEO, Amjad Masad

• Taoiseach seeks billionaire Eir owner Xavier Niel’s help to build Irish ‘Station F’ for startups here

• Ireland the 2nd Safest Country in the World here, a nice reminder for anyone spending too much time on Twitter

• Irish-led CalypsoAI to be acquired by Nasdaq-listed F5 in €153.5m deal here, another big win for the Irish ecosystem

• Buy then analyse here, Stanley Drucken-Miller explains his bias towards action

• On the theme of ‘Doing the Hard Thing’, Dan Hobbs showing what it takes here

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

It is becoming increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder.

Although, once on said ladder, things are not always rosy.

Nobody does it quite like the French.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Subscribe now

Quote of the Month: "Follow effective action with quiet reflection. From the quiet reflection will come even more effective action." – Peter Drucker

Our Challenge of the Month - Pricing Strategy:

One thing I’ve always been fascinated by in business is pricing strategy. We learned about it in university, and I’ve been practically implementing various strategies for 5+ years at Bounce. In essence, there’s a few ways to price in B2B:

• Cost Plus: Whatever it costs you plus whatever you can get away with.

• Competitor Minus: Whatever your competitor charges minus whatever you can get away with internally.

• Value Based: Some amount of the outcome or value derived from the client (this is the dream).

• Finger in the Air: Pick a number based on limited information (this can unfortunately be the case more than you’d think)

An advisor of mine once said there is a rule of thumb in pricing that you should lose 10% of deals because you are too expensive. Any more than that, you’re too expensive, and any less, you’re not being bold enough. This is my favourite type of advice; practical enough to be implemented while capturing the essence of how crazy most decisions are in the business world.

This month, we’ve been rolling out a new product (see ‘Building Great Products’ from our May edition here) that we’ve been tinkering with on how to price it. This might not be interesting, but my brain has gone to some interesting places, so I wanted to summarise some pragmatic, actionable pricing advice for you all.

You should start with the ‘perfect’ model, and work backwards. In one of my first meetings I had in New York with an ex advertising exec (think Mad Men, but way less cool), he explained the idea that when designing a logo for a brand, you can charge $10M, and it doesn’t matter if it takes you 10 minutes or 10 weeks, the value is in the outcome.

A pricing model based on cost (e.g. per human hour, or per cost of goods sold) limits leverage and scale. At Bounce, we always strive to have value / outcome based pricing. For us, that means pricing based on the outcome of the decisions made with the insights we share.

However, that is exceptionally difficult as we don’t have visibility of the outcomes of our clients nor can we directly attribute the value back to the decision they made with our data. So we’ve had to evolve. In short, we take a bold, flexible pricing strategy that’s built on some non-negotiables, but completely open beyond that.

The main goal is to win the deal by gathering the necessary information on available budget, competitor pricing and what they’re willing to pay, and make it work for the client. We have a minimum gross margin we try to hit on this, but we can adapt for the right deal. The reality is to replace an incumbent, you need to be significantly better in every way to justify the change, as people are generally averse to it.

Pricing is one critical element to that, so use it wisely.

Some other pricing advice worth noting:

• ROI is everything for a buyer: If you can prove to a buyer that if they give you $1, you can give them $1.01, they should rationally give you an infinite number of dollars (that’s why Google or Meta ad businesses were / are a gold mine).

• Pricing is always evolving: High margin software business dining on +90% margins with a seat-based model are at risk as the cost of entry in software drops, and excessive profits are targeted.

• You’re going to get it wrong: The reality of the situation is that you need to start with a price that one person is willing to pay, and adapt / increase from there, without destroying the future potential of a profitable business model.

The most important thing for you to remember is that every decision ever made at a business was made up by one or a number of individuals acting on the best information or intuition they had. Never assume that it was rational or correct - think from first principles, and go make your own decisions.

Our Trend of the Month - Time to Consider AC Essential Infra, not Extravagant Luxury

It feels very wrong to complain about the good weather, especially as I spend the Winter months longing for some good sun. However, since my new American roommate arrived (cc Rob Muldowney), amid his long-winding European critics, he raised some very valid points about air conditioning.

London and European homes are overheating without Air Conditioning (AC) resulting in negative impacts on productivity, sleep and sometimes well-being.

Productivity Losses:

The Times recently wrote an interesting article titled “Heat makes us slow and stupid”. It highlights how heat exhaustion leads to accelerated heart rate, increased blood flow to the skin and impaired brain function.

On warmer days, decision making quality erodes, reaction times are slower and attention spans reduced. Studies from 1992-2003 estimate a negative 1.5% impact to GDP - which shocked me quite a bit!

Sleep Quality:

A large scale study analysing over 7 million sleep records across 68 countries finds that warmer nighttime temperatures consistently reduce sleep duration.

They found no evidence of short term acclimatisation, meaning people don’t adjust well to hotter nights. Older adults, women and lower socio-economic groups are disproportionately affected.

Extreme heat events and their subsequent impact on sleep quality is shown to increase cardiovascular risks also.

Source: Financial Times

Heat Related Fatalities:

From 2000 to 2019, heat-related fatalities in Western Europe averaged 83,000 per year, compared with just 20,000 in North America. A stark disparity tied partly to low air conditioning use.

Low adoption of AC in Europe results in outsized death numbers, especially during intense heat periods.

Source: Financial Times

In the UK, the government does offer grants of up to £7,500 for the installation of AC. With more awareness, it seems like there are many opportunities for HVAC businesses to capitalise on these consumer incentives. Companies like Buildforce are growing fast and doing similar things in the US.

Perhaps, it is time to re-frame AC as not a luxury but critical infrastructure. Or maybe the cold side of the pillow will remain as one of life's greatest luxuries.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - SporeBio:

French deeptech startup SporeBio recently raised a €22 million Series A led by Singular to bring its proprietary on‑site bacterial detection system to factory floors. This follows their €8 million pre-seed led by Localglobe in late 2023.

SporeBio is developing AI-powered microbiology testing that drastically reduces the time needed to identify contaminations. In the past, conventional testing methods would take 5-20 days whereas SporeBio can do this in minutes from the factory floor.

Given product recalls can on average cost £10m per recall, their value proposition is rather compelling. Plus their approach works across food & bev, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals where delays in testing are costly or even potentially harmful for consumers.

CEO Amine Raji is a former Nestlé manufacturing engineer who experienced these issues first hand. Supported by his co-founders Maxime Mistretta (CTO), a microbiologist with a PhD and Mohamed Tazi (COO), a repeat founder who previously exited Gymlib to EGYM, they are an impressive team.

Given all this, it is not surprising Spore Bio has secured commercial contracts with 200 factories, prompting a waitlist due to overwhelming interest. Plus a partnership with the Pasteur Institute, a leading Microbiology institute.

Looking ahead, SporeBio plans to double headcount by the end of the year and scale out its operations, with US expansion likely. It’s cool to see another impressive French startup tackling an age old microbiology problem.

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Content Corner:

• Rewiring laziness, a super interesting 2 minute video on how to rewire your brain and avoid laziness here

• Launch of Shortcut here, the first superhuman excel agent. A target on white-collar jobs around the world.

• Irish start-up Newswhip acquired for €47M here, a great outcome for Paul Quigley and the team

• A MIT report suggests that 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing here. The desire is there, but delivery seems to be lagging behind

• Ireland is one of the most equal and least politically polarised countries in the world here

• Continued decline of 30-year olds in the US married and homeowners here, falling from 50+% in 1950 to sub 15% in 2025

• Thiel Fellowship vs Y Combinator Unicorn Hit Rate here, a wild statistic

• Longevity saved America, have enjoyed NFX’s blog recently with some contrarian takes here

• The Greatest Scam in History: the creation of the Fed here

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

As discussed before, more people should be encouraged into skilled trades to develop critical skills that are highly demanded.

An alarming trend that highlights how much things have changed.

Despite all of the renewables chatter, our energy sources are dependent on non-renewables.

Over 90% of crime was committed by people with 2 or more arrests.

Memes:

The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “I wonder why it is that when I plan a route too carefully, it goes to pieces, whereas if I blunder along in blissful ignorance aimed in a fancied direction I get through with no trouble” - John Steinbeck's “Travels with Charley”

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Our Challenge of the Month - Building a Great Company:

Something we obsess over at Bounce is building a ‘great’ company, but in a slightly different way to what you might think.

The foundation of this obsession stems from controlling what we can within an unpredictable environment. Of course, we are working relentlessly towards building a world-class product, disrupting an industry and achieving a large outcome for investors in the future.

But, we can’t control any of that, really. We believe in it, and we strive for progress, not perfection every single day. Yet, the thing we can control is how we get there, the journey along the way.

Every interview I’ve done with a new hire, I’ll clearly state my ambition for anyone who joins Bounce “If we blow up overnight or at any point in the future, I want you to look back on this experience as the best of your career”.

Why is this important? To me, the “happiness of pursuit” is what I live by (May 2022 newsletter, Gary Fox’s interview). It’s both a coping mechanism and the only way I know how to lead. Building a company should be the hardest and funnest thing you ever do, and if you over-optimise for the former, you’ll live to regret it.

How do we define a ‘great’ company? Our formula is one where every team member is:

• Challenged: Feeling like you’re at the edge of your comfort zone and surrounded by people who feel more capable than you. This is exhilarating and important.

• Well Treated: Feeling like you are valued, respected and recognised for your contributions. Work is hard enough, working with people who are sound and kind matters.

• Growing: Feeling like you are progressing in your career, from a skillset and experience perspective. This is a necessity for longevity.

• Aligned: Feeling like you know why you’re working so hard, and what it means if you and we are successful. This keeps you pointed in the right direction.

• Having Fun: Feeling like you are spending the majority of your week on work you find stimulating, with people you enjoy being around is. This is something not enough people think about.

How do we measure that? We gather employee feedback every quarter that ranks us on the five critical elements of a ‘great’ company, seeking insight into where we might be dropping the ball and where we’re excelling.

Building a ‘great’ company when you have a wide variety of people, roles, cultures and desires in a business that has intense ups and downs is a difficult, but necessary pursuit. In every decision we make, we think about this commitment deeply, as it is one of the few things we can attempt to control.

Who knows if we’ll be the next big company out of Ireland, but we’re certainly trying our hardest. In the meantime, I’m dedicated to making every person who invests their invaluable time working for Bounce as special as possible, and something they won’t regret.

Our Trend of the Month - Europe’s Looming Nursing Shortage:

Europe will soon need to confront its looming healthcare crisis. However, unlike some of our recent pandemics, this one is avoidable and due to poor planning. Europe is facing a deepening shortage of nurses.

Demographic shifts, educational bottlenecks and a growing dissatisfaction within the nursing profession, means globally we will be short c.4.5 million nurses by 2030. Plus, with geographies across Europe getting older, demand for nursing care is soaring and these issues are exacerbating.

Source: Geo Universe

There are a host of factors that are negatively impacting the nursing market in Europe.

• An ageing workforce

  • According to the OECD, a quarter of nurses in EU countries are aged 55 or older and soon approaching retirement age.

  • In Germany alone, nearly 500,000 nurses will reach retirement age by 2030.

  • This “silver tsunami” is especially perilous because the pipeline of new nurses is neither large enough nor fast enough to replace them.

• Insufficient replacement rate

  • There are insufficient seats in nursing schools at times due to faculty shortages and funding constraints.

  • Even within nursing education, dropout rates can exceed 25% in some regions.

  • Perceptions of low pay, emotional burden, and poor work-life balance that deter potential candidates.

• A churning workforce

  • The crisis is not just about recruitment. Retention matters.

  • Europe is witnessing a troubling trend of early exits from the profession, driven by burnout and stress from understaffing and long shifts.

  • Recent surveys from Spain and Italy show that up to 15% of nurses consider leaving the profession each year, while over 40% report frequent thoughts of quitting due to mental and physical exhaustion.

At the same time, Europe’s population is aging rapidly. By 2050, nearly 30% of EU citizens will be aged 65 or older.

Source: Eurostat

Chronic diseases, long-term care needs, and complex health conditions will require sustained and skilled nursing support. Older patients typically require more care hours, often triple that of younger patients.

So, we are sitting on a care time bomb and there is an urgent need to address our nursing shortages to protect our most vulnerable. Today, we are reliant on inefficient immigration processes to plug these gaps for now, but the existing set up is failing and quite soon will be very problematic.

The current system home markers are ill-equipped to handle this shift. There needs to be more solutions in the space.

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Start-Up / Founder of the Month - Mark Hughes & Patrick Finlay of SolidRoad:

When looking through the archive of all the start-ups we’ve highlighted over the last few years, I was surprised we hadn’t done a deep dive on Mark & Patrick from SolidRoad, the “AI QA & Training Platform for CX Teams”.

I was probably waiting until they had some bigger news to share, and that came this month when they announced their $6.5M funding round led by First Round Capital to help teams increase customer satisfaction scores without increasing cost.

I’ve known Mark & Patrick for a few years now, Mark via GradGuide which was acquired by CluneTech in March 2021, and Patrick from when he wrote one of the more memorable blog posts on why he left the company he co-founded in December 2021. They are two of the grittiest, soundest young founders that this island has produced, and I’ve loved every second of watching their journey with SolidRoad.

They are the antithesis of a “stealth start-up”, they build in public, document their wins and losses, explain their strategies and do whatever it takes to win in an insanely competitive industry. They got into YC on their sixth attempt, and are on a journey of rapid iteration and customer obsession that is a joy to watch from afar.

As for SolidRoad, they are building the infrastructure for companies with more than 10,000 customer conversations per month. They believe that traditional approaches — offshore outsourcing, legacy quality assurance tools, or fully automated AI agents — often result in deteriorating customer satisfaction scores. It’s a pretty clear-cut value proposition, and you can go see their product for yourself here.

They are two of Ireland’s best, and they deserve all the success in the world - after a few years of iterating, it looks like they are on the rocketship journey every start-up dreams of. Fingers crossed they can cling on and make it happen.

Content Corner:

• Irish start-up Johnson Hana acquired for $50M here by Eudia, an AI platform for Fortune 500 legal teams.

• Meta’s Poaching in AI Wars here to build AI Superintelligence Team with reports of $100M bonuses for some new hires.

• Replit’s Journey from $10M - $100M in six months, following almost ten years of slow steady growth here.

• What you can’t say: Paul Graham’s essay from 2004 stands the test of time, catch it here.

• Lyn Alden’s Broken Money thesis in video format here.

• Michael Bloomberg on why Ireland is a great place to invest here after opening their new European office, and why Brexit was one of the stupidest things anyone has ever done here.

• Intercom’s Darragh Curran on 2X Productivity Goal with AI here, emailed to his R&D team of their expectations.

• How the EU’s AI regulations drove a $6m Irish start-up to register in Singapore here.

• Your Pitch Deck Isn’t About Ticking Boxes. It’s a Window Into Execution, a blog post here by venture investor Andreea Wade.

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Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Replit’s ARR journey, it took 10 years to $10M, 6 months to $100M.

Interesting ideology gaps forming amongst young people.

Again, amazing how little coverage this gets.

Noteworthy, especially given Copper’s importance for AI.

Memes:

The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Subscribe now

Quote of the Month: “The key is not to prioritise what's on your schedule, but to schedule your priorities.” - Stephen R. Covey (author of The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People)

Our Challenge of the Month - Building Leadership Teams:

I’m experiencing a lot of growing pains at Bounce at the moment. It’s a strange feeling to spend years dreaming of the position we find ourselves in now, only to find yourself facing challenges with consequences matching the scale of our ambition if we make a misstep.

As we approach forty employees, we’ve had to create an organisational structure that matches our size, our speed of growth and the specific industry we find ourselves in. No matter how much you read on this topic or advice you seek, you realise quickly that everyone is just making it up based on their own personal experience.

Every single decision at Bounce comes down to a first principles discussion followed by a decision on what we think will work, and iterating from there. When it comes to hiring and building leadership teams, I’ve found this process remarkably difficult.

One of the flaws with typical organisational design is that you promote your best individual contributors into a management role, reducing the amount of time actually spent doing the work that you originally found most valuable to the business.

Instead, you throw them into a people management role that requires long-term planning and short-term problem solving, skills they were never hired or measured by before. That model has always seemed crazy to me, but it’s hard to know what the alternative could be.

If you hire managers directly into a team in a start-up, it means they have never done the roles of the people they are leading, so lack credibility or understanding. These functions are usually quirky, and built on top of thousands of rational and irrational decisions, so aren’t the easiest to take on.

The advice “just hire great people, and get out of the way” is perhaps the most damaging for a founder doing this for the first time. Like much advice, it lacks context and depth. It just looks good in a book or on a podcast. There is so much more to it.

In my mind, the advice should read something like:

• Make sure the function has a foundation, and the ‘zero to one’ has been completed (ideally by a founder). This is where the most critical information is gathered across sales, product, marketing, finance etc.

• Hire the best person you can with the resources you have available to lead that function. Make sure to challenge their hard skills at the interview stage (which is almost impossible to do in most non-technical roles), and do your best to assess cultural fit with the company and the specific team they will be leading (which is actually impossible in an interview).

• Spend time doing a deep ‘right to left’ exercise with them (i.e. clearly articulating the long term vision of the company, their functions’ role within that, their most immediate priorities to get us on the right path, and how each individual in their team’s growth path looks like to have everyone driving in the same direction)

• Allow them the space to make decisions on the micro, and hold them accountable to the macro. Let them make mistakes (at Bounce, we say “nudge them, don’t push them” in the right direction). Try to avoid micro-managing, but treat it on a case-by-case basis. Some people like and need a bit of it, some people can’t stand it.

Even at that, this advice lacks context and depth. I could spend hours speaking about how I think one should try and build leadership teams, and at the end of it, still might not be the right approach for your company.

This month was more of a brain dump as I face a live challenge in the business, but I thought it could be helpful to explain my thinking on a topic I know every founder struggled with. We’re doing alright so far, so fingers crossed we can continue to delegate and execute at a speed and quality we need in order to win.

P.S. I’d listen to John Purdy’s take on scaling teams here (37:30 - 42:27 in this podcast with Gary Fox.

Our Trend of the Month - Fragile Financial Freedom:

Privacy is a cornerstone of freedom. Whether in speech, thought, or finance, the ability to act without constant observation is essential for individual autonomy and a healthy society. Financial privacy, in particular, protects citizens from overreach by both state / corporates and preserves the right to make choices without scrutiny.

But in recent years, across Europe, that privacy is quietly vanishing. As governments tighten controls on cash, monitor bank activity more closely, and push transactions into increasingly digital and traceable formats, the question arises: how much privacy are we willing to trade for the promise of security?

In her book Broken Money, Lyn Alden explores how the structure of money itself has changed: shifting from neutral, bearer-based instruments like gold and cash to digital forms that are inherently surveilled and permissioned.

This evolution has profound implications, as the tools that once allowed for private exchange are being phased out in favor of systems designed for maximum visibility.

Spain has implemented stringent measures to monitor and control cash usage:

• Cash Payment Limits: Since July 2021, cash payments exceeding €1,000 between professionals or businesses are prohibited. For non-residents, the limit is set at €10,000.

• ATM Withdrawal Caps: Withdrawals over €3,000 from ATMs now require justification and the reasons for withdrawal are reported to the Bank of Spain and the Tax Agency.

• Transaction Monitoring: Banks are mandated to report deposits or withdrawals exceeding €3,000.

France has adopted a comprehensive digital approach to monitor financial transactions:

• Cash Transaction Limits: Cash payments are capped at €1,000 for residents and €10,000 for non-residents.

• Fiscalisation System: France enforces a software-based fiscalisation system requiring each transaction to have a unique, sequential number and digital signature. This system ensures high data integrity and mandates centralised system architecture, strict compliance procedures, and extensive technical documentation.

• Digital Receipts: As of August 1, 2023, paper receipts are no longer printed automatically, allowing for digital alternatives.

Germany, traditionally known for its cash-friendly policies, has made notable changes concerning gold transactions:

• Gold Limits: Gold declaration limits have declined from €10,000 to €2,000.

• Potential Cash Transaction Limits: While Germany currently has no general cash transaction limit, discussions are ongoing about introducing a cap, potentially around €5,000, to further curb illicit activities.

The trajectory across these European nations underscores a broader trend: the gradual erosion of financial privacy in favour of increased surveillance and control.

These measures are often justified under the premise that they are to prevent illicit activities, but they pose large challenges to individual freedoms and the principle of financial autonomy.

It is increasingly important that such actions are debated and scrutinised, as we cannot inadvertently compromise the very freedoms they aim to safeguard.

It poses the question: if cash was invented today would it be illegal?

Start-Up / Founder of the Month: Ryan Cobain & Huddle Offsites

At different times in my life, I’ve admired certain friends for their pristine LinkedIn, but also other pals who have paved their own way and endeavoured to try something new. Ryan sits in the small intersection of both groups.

From top Leaving Cert results to Ec & Fi to MBB Consulting, Ryan collected the coveted and impressive stamps. But, more recently, he has left the corporate world in exploration of his niche. After some time exploring career coaching, Ryan has launched Huddle Offsites.

They’re focused on offsites for leadership teams, but also organising full company offsites for startups. The TLDR is they take on all the organising faff and allow teams to use their time in a better, more productive way.

Here’s how it works:

• Tailored Retreat Design: Every Huddle starts with a deep intake of what the team is navigating, what’s not working and what needs clarity.

• End-to-End Execution: Location sourcing, facilitation, team prep, catering and post-retreat guidance are all handled.

• Real Outcomes: It is still early days but customers have used Huddle retreats to rebuild trust post-reorg, align deeply on product strategy, and even reset company culture before a fundraise.

Ryan has been open that he is very much working things out (a fittingly witty Substack name for a terrific account), but that is what I’ve most enjoyed when reading about his thought process. He is an incredible contrarian thinker and someone that I rely upon with increasing frequency.

Whether you’re a startup leader or early in your career, there’s magic in his writing. Similarly, I have no doubt there will be similar magic at Huddle Offsite.

Content Corner:

• Wolters Kluwer Legal & Regulatory has signed an agreement to acquire Brightflag, an Irish provider of AI-powered legal spend and matter management software, for approximately €425 million in cash here

• 5 Critical Go-to-Market Red Flags That Doom Startups by DC Cahalane, one of Ireland’s prominent start-up voices here

• Anthropic went from $1B in annualized revenue to $3B in annualized revenue in 5 months here

• Sarah Guo on the importance of ‘Taste’ in start-ups here

• The Automation of Work is a great article detailing how work is set to change written by Benedict Evans here

• Irish co-founded Sunrise Robotics raised $8.5M in seed funding after emerging from stealthy with it’s easy-to-deploy industrial robot company here

• Elkstone-backed Mesh acquired by Romanian cybersecurity firm here

• Eoghan McCabe on Intercom’s rebound and how they rebooted a 15 year old decelerating business to be on course to be the fastest growing large software company in the world in four quarters from today here

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Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Waymo are busy tonight.

Poland have a lot to be proud of in recent years. Good book on this here.

We really need more people reading more. The time is there.

The New SEO.

Memes:

ChatGPT does flattery remarkably well.

Very apt living in London in the summer heat.

Our ego’s bruised.

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “This constant lying is not aimed at making the people believe a lie, but at ensuring that no one believes anything anymore. A people that can no longer distinguish between truth and lies cannot distinguish between right and wrong” - Hannah Arendt, German-American historian and philosopher

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Our Challenge of the Month - Building Great Products:

This month, we launched our latest product at Bounce, and it got me thinking about what makes a great product, never mind a great product go-to-market (although they are very closely linked).

The vast majority of products in any industry fail because they don’t actually solve a problem for the buyer. People focus far too much on the product, and this leads founders to fall into the trap of thinking they have product-market fit well before they actually do. When companies raise money in these cases, and hire sales teams, that’s when that money is lit on fire.

To avoid this fate, we follow a framework for building any new product at Bounce that is rigorous, but simple: Listen, Sell, Build.

1. Listen: We spend as much time as possible with customers, listening to problems they have, understanding how they do their job currently, how are they rewarded, what do they care about, what do they wish they had that they don’t? The questions cannot be leading, and it requires intellectual honesty to execute well (similar to the idea behind the Mom Test)

2. Sell: This is the step people avoid doing, because it’s uncomfortable and hard, and it’s much easier to convince yourself that your ideal customer profile definitely has the problem you’re solving, and they will buy your product. The only true validation is when a client pays you for the solution you’re pitching to them. That is because selling is hard, and you have to be so much better than the existing ways of working to actually take money off a client - so prove it before you build it.

3. Build: I’m not saying you don’t have anything built before this stage, you will typically need to visualise the solution to the client and how it will work for them to buy it. However, the most successful products we’ve ever launched have been co-created alongside early clients who have a deep problem who are willing to give feedback and iterate with you to ensure it actually solves the problem they had. You’ll also find out multiple more problems and add-ons you never could’ve identified in the early customer interviews that you can incorporate now as you build together.

The bad news is, even if you follow that framework flawlessly, you then move onto figuring out how to launch that product, setting clear metrics for success, positioning it well, gaining traction and fighting for your life to maintain momentum. This is where the magic happens, and where I get the most joy out of my work.

There’s an entire other newsletter needed to articulate how to launch a product successfully. It’s an iterative process that requires you to understand the different ‘fits’ needed to scale and win. A lot of my thinking around this was shaped by this article which I’d recommend to any founder who has an ambition of building a large business.

P.S. As I explained on my interview on Gary Fox’s podcast, my thinking here has been forged over incessant failure to do this right and is certainly going to evolve as we continue to grow. However, I hope it helps sharpen your thinking and process in what is a remarkably difficult part of building a business.

Our Trend of the Month - Iberian Blackout: A Wake-Up Call for Europe's Energy Future

On April 28, 2025, the Iberian Peninsula experienced a catastrophic power outage that plunged Spain, Portugal, and parts of southwest France into darkness. The blackout disrupted essential services, halted transportation, and raised critical questions about the resilience of modern energy infrastructures.

The blackout's repercussions were swift and severe:

• Transportation: All trains in Spain were halted, stranding around 35,000 passengers. Madrid's Barajas International Airport lost power, operating at reduced capacity for hours.

• Healthcare: Hospitals activated backup generators to maintain critical services.

• Communication: Telecommunications and internet services were severely disrupted, with network traffic dropping to 17% of normal levels.

• Public Safety: Traffic lights failed, leading to accidents and necessitating manual traffic control in cities like Barcelona.

Recovery was a complex, multi-stage process. In Spain, Hydropower and gas turbines were ramped up, with international support from France and Morocco aiding in grid stabilisation. Full restoration was achieved by 4:00 AM on April 29. In Portugal, Black start capabilities at the Castelo do Bode hydropower dam and Tapada do Outeiro natural gas power station were crucial. The grid was fully restored by early April 29.

This blackout serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities inherent in modern energy systems and should not come as a shock.

Source: Le Monde

As Michael Shellenberger details in a great tweetstorm here and detailed update here, “the underlying cause of the blackout was the lack of “inertia,” the physical buffer provided by traditional power plants that use heavy spinning machinery to stabilise the grid during sudden fluctuations.”

Power plants rotate massive metal shafts thousands of times per minute, creating electricity and providing momentum. That rotational mass acts like a shock absorber, automatically resisting sharp swings in supply and demand.

“When a fault or sudden drop hits the system, that inertia buys precious seconds for control systems to respond and for operators to isolate the problem. In contrast, solar panels and most modern wind turbines rely on inverters, which lack physical mass and can’t cushion these shocks.”

It re-affirms that governments must balance the push for renewable energy with the need for reliable and resilient power systems, considering both technological and geopolitical factors. As nations transition to cleaner energy sources, ensuring grid stability becomes paramount.

The Iberian blackout underscores the urgency for comprehensive strategies that address both the opportunities and challenges of modern energy transitions. As Europe continues its journey towards a sustainable future, lessons from this event should inform policies, investments, and innovations to build a more resilient and secure energy landscape.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - Roamr:

There has been a lot of fundraising going on in the early-stage Irish tech ecosystem (as you will see with Kota, Axe & Dosen in ‘Content Corner’), but the company that caught my eye this month is Roamr, founded by Stephen Dooley & James O’Gorman to disrupt corporate travel following years of changing travel habits and norms post-Covid.

The tagline ‘Paying Employees, Not Hotels’ is powerful, particularly as someone who oversees an ever-growing and ever-painful travel and expenditure budget at Bounce. Similar to the idea that employees usually benefit from the personal Avios points when they fly with their companies, it seems obvious that employees could be paid for enabling corporate travel instead of overpriced, bleak hotel rooms?

This month, the company raised $2.3M in a pre-seed funding round led by GymPlusCoffee investor Mike Halpin, former managing director of Meta Ireland Rick Kelley, ex-chair of Shopify International John Riordan, as well as a range of key figures in travel and SaaS.

Not many companies can clearly articulate the problem they are solving for, and why the timing is perfect. Stephen & James do exactly that. Teams are becoming increasingly distributed but need time together in person often to improve culture, engagement and collaboration, but travel costs are higher than ever.

Their solution allow employees to stay with colleagues or friends, saving the company 30% in total cost, while opening up an additional source of income for the hosting employees.

Like many of these bold ideas, execution will be everything. If they can marry the corporate pain point with the employee validation on the solution, they could be onto something. According to Irish Insights, the round was originally planned for late 2025, but traction across 100+ countries and a live pilot with a public U.S. company fast-tracked the funding.

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Content Corner:

• Google I/O 2025: from research to reality here where Sundar Pichai presented Google’s latest updates and visions for Gemini.

• NASA's Curiosity rover has shown what the night sky looks like on Mars, 225 million kilometers away here.

• Elizabeth Holmes’s partner has a new blood-testing start-up here (no, you did not read that wrong).

• Kota raises $14.5M Series A funding here, a start-up of the month alumni and friend of the newsletter continuing to smash it.

• Irish startup Axe lands €1.5 million to supercharge logistics teams with AI agents here, founded in 2024 by James McElroy (CEO) and Dan Quill (CTO).

• An open letter to Brian Chesky, founder of AirBnb, here, following their latest product launch which rolled out ‘services’.

• Irish-founded Dosen raises $2.3m to address employee ‘quiet quitting’ here and re-engaging “psychologically detached” employees.

• Convergence has been acquired by Salesforce the Balderton-backed AI start-up’s early exit further highlights the strategic interest out there.

• Spain’s new strict cash withdrawal limit here must now notify the tax authorities ahead of time when withdrawing +€3k or else face fines of up to €150k.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

YC’s latest request list is unsurprisingly AI heavy.

Memes:

The Spanish government to its citizens.

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “The only real test of intelligence is if you get what you want out of life.” - Naval Ravikant

Some News - Charlie Named in the Forbes 30 Under 30 List for Europe:

This month, Charlie was named as one of the Forbes 30 Under 30 in Europe for the Media & Marketing category, and was interviewed on his journey building Bounce alongside co-founders Rónán, Brandon & Josh here.

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Our Challenge of the Month - Pursuing my American Dream:

In September 2023, I wrote about setting up our first international office in London with Bounce. At the time, I remember how afraid I was of failing. Now, eighteen months after building the foundations in the UK market, it’s time to pursue the next challenge, America.

As I sat on the plane to New York, I had to read the following passage to reassure myself that this was the right thing for me, and the company:

“My confidence in succeeding comes from experience - every challenge we have ever faced, we have overcome so far. Every uncontrollable situation that set us back, we made it work. Every time I have doubted myself, my co-founders have picked me up.

Two things can be true at the same time: this is going to be the hardest thing I have ever done, and it’s going to be ok.

Instead of paralysing myself with fear, I need to energise myself through action. It's important to remind myself that what I’m about to do is what I dreamed of, and I should feel proud, excited and ready in equal measure.”

These are wise words from someone who I know was petrified, and was struggling to believe the ink on the page.

Once I landed in New York, I felt the same feelings bubble up, but this time with an even greater guilt as I leave life in London with my partner who moved over with me. She has decided to stay in London as I now chase the next market, the next dream, the next seemingly insurmountable task.

The defining emotion I feel however, which my partner helped me realise, is that I’m exactly where I’m supposed to be. Despite the guilt, the sadness of leaving a great life in London, the isolation away from our core team in Dublin, and the constant fear of failing, there is an intense feeling which is hard to describe - like I’m in the right place at the right time in my life.

Anyone who knows me well will tell you that my dream has always been to build my own company and move to New York. I am someone who has always admired elements of the American dream; energy, ambition and an earnest entrepreneurial spirit that I always felt I would thrive in.

I’m a very different person to the teenager who had that dream. Yet, I feel an obligation to remember how proud he would have been, and I owe it to him and everyone who has made this dream possible to make the most of the opportunity.

Who knows what will happen over here, but what I do know is that I’m going to try to embrace every second, and not let these emotions get in the way of an incredible opportunity.

It’s time to get to work 🇺🇸

Our Trend of the Month - Heavy is the Head That Wears the Crown:

This month, I have been re-reading the brilliant Lyn Alden’s book Broken Money. I would implore everyone to get a copy and carefully read chapter 13: "Heavy is the Head That Wears the Crown". It is a must read.

In this chapter, Lyn succinctly details how the abandonment of the gold standard in the early 1970s allowed the U.S. dollar to become the world's primary reserve currency. This transition enabled the U.S. to finance persistent trade deficits by issuing USD denominated debt, a privilege not afforded to other nations.

As the issuer of the global reserve currency, the U.S. has benefited enormously geopolitically, but it has also had many unintended harmful economic consequences. Since 1974, the Petrodollar system artificially increases the purchasing power of the U.S., but this monetary premium also reduces their export competitiveness and is gradually hollowing out the U.S. industrial base.

Impact on US Manufacturing:

• The strong dollar, bolstered by its reserve currency status, made U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper.

• Offshoring was incentivised and domestic industries declined.

• As a result, there has been a hollowing out of the U.S. manufacturing sector, loss of skilled jobs, and increased economic vulnerability.​

Socio-Economic Consequences:

• The erosion of the manufacturing base contributed to wage stagnation and job losses in industrial regions.

• The financial class and political elite has benefited from the dollar's dominance, the working class bore the brunt of its adverse effects.

• This disparity has fuelled political polarisation and a sense of disenfranchisement among many Americans, exacerbating income inequality and social unrest.

The Illusion of Economic Strength:

• The U.S.'s ability to sustain trade deficits without immediate repercussions has created a false sense of economic invulnerability.

• Alden likens this to a boxer who doesn't feel pain, accumulating damage over time without realising it.

• The long-term consequences include a deeply negative net international investment position and structural weaknesses in the economy.

The U.S. now finds itself stretched thin trying to maintain a financial system and geopolitical structure it no longer really benefits from. It seems, the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a lightbulb moment for the U.S. military and highlighted the frailty of the system. It is now clear that the U.S. is no longer able to manufacture enough military equipment and is reliant on China.

Trump, Vance, Bessent et al also now realise this and are taking steps to re-address the system and world order. Anyone who has studied the history of money such as Lyn Alden knows that the existing global monetary system is a relatively new phenomenon and is increasingly not fit for purpose.

Perhaps, we are seeing the board reshuffle in real time.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - Fyxer AI:

Personally, I have found it increasingly difficult to manage my inbox and maintain inbox 0. There are now so many newsletters, outbound and internal emails hitting inboxes.

That’s why I was so pumped to see Archie and Rich at Fyxer AI announce their $10m Series A this month led by 20VC. In recent months, the team has been building in public, compounding wins, so it was not surprising to see such a stellar raise.

Founder-market fit is often overlooked. But, in a competitive space such as email management, it is rather important.

Previously, the guys bootstrapped the UK’s largest executive assistant company to $5m ARR. Their deep industry knowledge and structured data from years of managing workflows gave them the perfect foundation to develop an AI assistant that truly works.

It’s now catching on fast. They’ve hit the same $5 million ARR milestone in a fraction of the time. Small consistent wins have compounded, leading to the team growing at 12% WoW for 26 weeks. Before they went vertical in December.

Source: company presentation

So, what does Fyxer AI actually do?

• Sorts and prioritises your inbox – No more sifting through clutter. Fyxer AI organises emails and even drafts responses in your own tone.

• Manages your schedule – AI-powered scheduling means no more back-and-forth emails. Just smarter, faster meetings.

• Takes meeting notes for you – Transcriptions, summaries, and action items delivered straight to your inbox.

It’s wild that 53% of the email drafts they write are sent by customers. That’s customer love. The team is growing quickly and are hiring across most roles. Check them out here!

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Content Corner:

• Launch and launch again, Elevenlabs Head of Growth Luke Harries has a great launch checklist here

• The movement to end phone-based childhood here a year after ‘The Anxious Generation’ was launched by Jon Haidt.

• Naval Ravikant on Chris Williamson here, a fascinating interview with one of the most interesting minds I’ve ever listened to.

• How Superhuman built an engine to find PMF here, a cracking article for anyone interesting in building their own company.

• The pros & cons of Europe & US in everyday life here, according to Patrick Collison.

• Reflexive AI usage is now a baseline expectation at Shopify here, an internal memo by founder and CEO, Tobi Lutke, to his employees.

• Who wins the Nobel Prizes here

• Lyn Alden’s March Newsletter here on AI’s impact on the investing landscape

• The evolution of marketplaces, a primer on the past, present, and future of the marketplace business model here

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Format remains important.

Memes:

The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: The Paradox of Hate - “You need to hate the world enough to change it, but love it enough to consider it worth changing." G.K. Chesterton

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Our Challenge of the Month - Crisis Management:

Last month, a friend and fellow founder, Garret Flower sent me advice from Sam Altman on the jobs of the CEO. Little did he know, he shared it with me randomly via Whatsapp hours after another ‘crisis’ had hit me out of the blue in Bounce.

Over the last few years, I’ve developed a complete numbness to unfair, uncontrollable pain and suffering. I now have an unwanted skill of accelerating through the stages of grief at breakneck speed whenever something bad happens at Bounce. In the early days, it would take weeks to get over something that wouldn’t even be considered a blip now.

Most of the crises I can’t speak about publicly, but trust me, we’ve had it all at Bounce. We’re like Neo from the Matrix dodging bullets that should kill us off. But every time, we get back up, analyse the situation, assess what it actually means for the business, take the necessary action and move forward. I think there’s something special in that.

Reading Sam Altman’s advice crystallised that feeling for me: “everything will feel broken all the time - the diversity and magnitude of disasters will surprise you. Your job is to fix them with a smile on your face and reassure your team that it’ll all be ok. Usually things aren’t as bad they seem, but sometimes they are in fact really bad. In any case, just keep going. Keep growing”.

I think the reason I love writing so much is that sentences like the above, when read at the right time, can completely transform how you act in a given situation. Enough of these positive actions compounding over enough time, and it could change our future at Bounce.

As Sam says “people who let themselves make a lot of excuses usually fail in general, and start-up CEOs who do it almost always fail. Let yourself feel upset at the injustice for 1 minute, and then realise that it’s up to you to figure out a solution”.

This is some of the best advice I’ve read while building Bounce. I felt validated in the chaos of my emotions through yet another painful, unexpected crisis. More importantly, it re-focused me on my job as a leader at Bounce - keep going, keep growing, and keep the smile on my face as I do it.

If I am to be remembered for anything at Bounce, I want to be the person that people say “Charlie just somehow always finds a way to get things done”.

Our Trend of the Month - Is Academic Decline Accelerating?

When Patrick Collison posts on Twitter, it’s usually a moment to pause the doom-scrolling and take note. His recent tweet thread, which highlighted a concerning decline in exam performance among students - particularly in STEM fields - has been especially eye-opening.

In his thread, Collison shared data showing that average exam scores in subjects like mathematics and physics have dropped significantly over the past decade. This mirrors a broader trend, as reading scores have also seen a notable decline, as we discussed in our May-24 issue.

Source: OECD (2023), PISA (2022), The State of Learning and Equity in Education

These troubling results have sparked a fascinating post-mortem. While many have blamed Covid-related school closures for the drop in performance, the data tells a different story. "School closures explained only 11% of the variation in countries’ test scores; nearly 90% of the decline remains unaccounted for by this factor," according to the findings.

ACT scores have followed a similar trajectory, with a sharp decline in recent years.

Source: NCES and ACT

More recently, the Financial Times raised an unsettling question: asked “have humans passed peak brain power”?

Source: OECD (2023), PISA, PIAAC

The decline in academic performance, particularly in core subjects like mathematics and physics, is a multifaceted crisis that demands urgent attention. While the reasons behind this trend are still unclear, there’s no doubt that it is a global issue with deep implications for the future. If we want to remain competitive on the world stage and address the pressing global challenges of our time—climate change, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical instability—strong foundations in STEM education are essential.

The question we now face is not just how to reverse this decline, but also how to adapt our education systems to prepare students for a rapidly changing world. It’s a challenge that requires collaboration between governments, educators, and tech companies. As voices like Patrick Collison’s continue to highlight this issue, we must seize the opportunity to invest in the future of education - before it’s too late.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - &Open:

Perhaps one of the most interesting start-up stories in recent years is that of &Open, the corporate gifting platform founded by Mark Legge, Jonathan Legge & Ciara Flood.

They recently announced a further €4.5M in funding this month after surpassing €8M in annual revenue, but the last ten years has been anything but ordinary. The trio started working on the idea in 2015, launched in 2017 and bootstrapped until 2021. Since then, they have raised approx. $45M to date across angel, venture capital and venture debt.

This included with a $26M Series A led by Molten Ventures alongside a who’s who of angel investors including Des Traynor, Liam Casey, Brian Caulfield and John Herlihy who participated in their Seed Round of $7.2M in 2021. They also raised $6.5M in venture debt financing from Silicon Valley Bank before it collapsed in March 2023.

After surpassing 100 employees in 2022, they had to cut 10% of their workforce, but since then have continued to grow despite a multitude of headwinds, including the co-founder Mark, leaving the business in September 2024 to pursue a new venture on his own, ‘The Solace’, which launched in February 2025.

Mark told their story on Gary Fox’s podcast here back in 2022, and at its core, it was always a simple mission of ‘scaling acts of kindness’, but I struggle to find a company in Ireland that has gone through the classic rollercoaster of resilience and continued growth despite consistent company-threatening challenges.

As a customer of &Open at Bounce, the offering and experience is beautiful for us and our clients. I hope they continue to fight the good fight, and make it happen on the global stage.

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Content Corner:

• 125 top European founders unite to fund and mentor the next generation of European founders here

• Corporate Espionage in Technology here, following HR technology company Rippling publicly sued its closest competitor, Deel on corporate espionage charges - a truly crazy story.

• European markets soar as Germany lifts ‘debt brake’ to increase defence spending here

• Ian Browne, a central part of the Irish start-up ecosystem on Irish ambition here

• Squid Raises €1.7M in Crowdfunding Round here from more than 2,600 investors at a pre-raise valuation of €33M, a fascinating new style of raise for one of Ireland’s brightest start-ups.

• The madness of the UK’s £100k tax trap, another example of poorly thought through policy here

• Why are we sleeping on Venus? Friend of the letter Finn Murphy recently wrote a thought-provoking piece on the suitability of Venus as our second home here

• A future in education with AI tutors? A Texas private school’s use of a new ‘AI tutor’ rockets student test scores to top 2% in the country here.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Is it time for some developed nations to re-think their energy strategies?

De-dollarisation is sensationalised often, but data like the below continues to show the flight to hard currencies.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “Your power is in the space between stimulus and response" - Viktor Frankl

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Our Challenge of the Month - Doubt:

Over the last few months, I’ve written about strong decision making, high performance teams, the power of storytelling and taking calculated risks. My thoughts were dominated by the excitement of what was to come and how if I could be good at the above things, what that would mean for me and Bounce.

The truth is, there is a far more pervasive thought that I can’t shake this month: doubt. What makes me think I can do this? What happens if I can’t do the things I said I could? These thoughts are not only human, they are necessary to do anything remarkable. Most psychologists agree that the motivation to avoid negative consequences is often stronger than the desire for rewards.

It was only when one of my best friends asked me how I was getting on in New York, that I admitted that I was overwhelmed and unsure of whether this was the right thing, and that “I couldn’t shake the feeling no matter what I do”. Then I thought, why am I trying to shake this feeling? Why not embrace a feeling I perhaps haven’t had enough along the way.

A cocktail of optimism, confidence and resilience has been my superpower at Bounce, and I should continue to harness that. However, the intensity of doubt I have felt this month has driven a change in mentality and focus that I must trust is simply part and parcel of succeeding here in the United States.

As Charles Bukowski said “the problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence”. Instead of seeking the blissful state of ignorance, I’m going to try to soak in this sea of doubt, and let it drive me to work harder than I ever thought possible.

Our Trend of the Month: Elon Musk, DOGE, and the National Debt: A Playbook for the Future

U.S. national debt is now over $36 trillion and is growing at about $1 trillion every 100 days. The US National Debt Clock displays these figures live, making for sobering viewing. For decades, many assumed deficits don’t matter. But higher debt means higher interest payments - now over $1 trillion annually, more than defense or Medicare and growing.

Source: US National Debt Clock

The usual solutions? Raise taxes, cut spending, or print money. None of which are politically viable. Raising taxes risks stalling growth, spending cuts face resistance, and printing money fuels inflation.

If the U.S. government needed outside-the-box thinking, Elon Musk would be the top candidate. As seen in Twitter’s turnaround, Musk is an expert at optimising operations to reduce waste. So, instead of issuing more debt or raising taxes, DOGE aims to look internally and address spending.

The playbook has worked in the past. In the 1940’s Truman found incredible waste across the defence department saving somewhere between 10 to $15 billion in 1941 (a quarter of a trillion, 2023 dollars) and Clinton’s National Partnership for Reinventing Government was effective.

DOGE has been able to attract top talent that are working extremely hard to turn things around. There are risks. Bureaucracies resist change, and entrenched interests benefit from inefficiency. But the current debt path isn’t sustainable. Something must change and fast.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - The World’s Fair:

This month, I spent some time in San Francisco, which was truly eye-opening. Initially, I was shocked, even appalled by the dystopian dichotomy between a crippling homelessness situation as self-driving cars and cyber trucks passed frequently.

However, with the passage of time, I began to see the SF magic I had heard many friends speak so fondly about. The scale of ambition and boldness of ideas by various founders was incredibly energising. From drone wars to re-thinking school construction, there are an array of awesome companies being built that extend beyond B2B SaaS.

Cameron Wiese is building one of those companies. The World's Fair, is a venture that’s less about nostalgia and more about reclaiming a missing piece of our civilisation. The World’s Fair is a large global exhibition designed to showcase the achievements of nations, but stopped in 1964.

Source: The World’s Fair in New York, 1964

Cameron is aiming to not just create another tech conference or startup showcase. He is crafting an engine for optimism. A space where people can step into tomorrow, feel its texture, and walk away convinced that they want to help build it.

The World’s Fair and SF more generally was a great reminder of that. I return back to Europe excited for all the incredible things being built and even more optimistic than before.

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Content Corner:

• Jobs of the CEO by Sam Altman here, for anyone considering launching their own start-up or is running one currently, read this, then read it again.

• Agency > Intelligence by Andrej Karpathy here, an ongoing debate in the age of AI and what it means to have agency.

• Irish startups must be smarter, harder-working or luckier here, a thought piece by Progress Ireland

• Replit, the AI App Creator on mobile, for free here launched this month with mind blowing capabilities.

• Everyone is talking their book, a short piece by Irish investor Finn Murphy on the current state of discourse & it's reality for company building + investing here

• Protex AI raise $36M in Series B funding here, a continued success story for the exceptional Dan Hobbs & Ciaran O’Mara

• The ultimate ‘product bundle’ here by Lenny Rachitsky for his newsletter subscribers.

• Off topic, but powerful piece on losing a parent here by Des Traynor, co-founder of Intercom.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

The importance of timing.

Finally, something so obvious to so many is being admitted.

Jeffery Word “genius of the year” winner in 2016 on how anyone can increase their IQ.

Memes:

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The words in this newsletter are entirely our own, but the insights and ideas have been inspired by others. Our goal is to synthesise the best information we have consumed each month, and relate it to our everyday lives.

This is our attempt to get better each day, and we would love you to join us.

Quote of the Month: “Success is being excited to go to work and being excited to come home.” Will Ahmed

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Our Challenge of the Month - Active Decisions & Funnel Focus:

I’ve learned a lot about the world and business from one of my co-founders, Rónán. I have never met someone with a greater ability to distil what actually matters, combined with a frightening standard of execution, no matter what the domain. He has changed the way I think through two of his core principles: active decisions and funnel focus.

Following our $4.5M funding round at Bounce, my biggest focus this month was to embody these principles. They are the ingredients of focus and execution, let me explain why.

In behavioural economics, ‘active choice’ refers to a decision-making strategy that involves making conscious and deliberate choices about what options to pursue. This sounds simple, but you’d be amazed at how rare it is in business. I believe most start-ups fail because they don’t follow a process of active decision-making, which requires deep thought about why you are doing what you are doing, and the evidence to confirm it’s the right thing to do.

I know this, because I was an inactive decision maker. Sometimes, I would be confident I was doing the right thing, but that would crumble when Rónán sought evidence for that decision, and we’d find out quickly it was a different path we needed to take.

Similarly, in running the commercial side of the business, the quicker you realise that everything is a funnel, the easier your life becomes. A funnel analysis is a method of understanding the steps required to reach an outcome. By doing this analysis, you know where to focus and more importantly, what to ignore.

At Bounce, we know our sales funnel metrics inside out, and they’re strong. In short, we win a high % of clients we engage with, in not a very long time. This means I need to trust the team to continue executing at that same performance, and focus my energy on how we’re going to drive the growth we need moving forward. This will be achieved by focusing on top of funnel (i.e. creating new client opportunities) and bottom of funnel (i.e. growing the spend of existing clients).

Suddenly, the fear and anxiety built at the start of the year when I saw the 2025 revenue target we have set dissipates. By making active decisions and having a funnel focus, the path becomes clear on where I need to focus. All that’s left to do is trust my numbers and execute.

These principles don’t just apply to sales. Take the example of raising a funding round. Most founders say they’re struggling to raise money or there’s not enough capital. Granted, a lot of companies are just not investible, but there are plenty I’ve met that simply don’t get these two principles.

When I ask them how many VC’s they’ve emailed, the answer is always shockingly low, but they think they’re doomed. Let’s do some simple maths. If you want 3 term sheets to try to close a round with some optionality, and expect a 10% conversion from pitch to term sheet, then you require 30 VC’s interested. Assuming a positive response rate to cold emails of 5%, you need to be emailing 600 VC’s who are specifically investing at your stage and type of business.

You might have a great business, but just aren’t working hard enough at the right things.

Our Trend of the Month - Google’s Development of Willow:

This month, the snowfall at Shannon Airport led to my flight being held on the runway for several hours. Thankfully, we had in-flight entertainment and a complex Sudoku kept me busy for longer than it should have.

Oddly, it was then that I started to appreciate the recent murmurs about the advancement of quantum computing. As I felt myself running through the numbers 1 to 2 to 3 and so far, I realised how much faster computations could be done through computers, or indeed quantum computers.

In regular computers, information is processed in bits: 1’s and 0’s. But, quantum computers use qubits which can exist as superpositions of both 1 and 0 simultaneously. As a result, quantum computers can conduct multiple calculations at once.

Google has been at the forefront of the quantum field after unveiling quantum processors like Foxtail (2017), Bristlecone (2018), Sycamore (2019), and now Willow (2024). Their new quantum computing chip Willow is septillions of times faster than a classical computing chip.

Willow can do tasks in 5 minutes than would take a classical computer 10 septillion years (10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000). More simply, a regular computer could solve the Sudoku much faster than me, and a quantum computer makes a mockery of a regular computer.

Quantum stocks appear to be the hot thing right now and quantum equities have rallied hard throughout H2 last year.

However, in reality, it seems we are still quite a way off from a paradigm shift. Although, Google’s recent developments with Willow are a notable leap forward. Jensen Heung recently suggested a 10+ year timeframe, hopefully offering enough time to prevent widespread disruption to financial markets.

If quantum does indeed arrive slowly the law of slow-moving disasters offers protection - if we can see a problem coming from far ahead, we’ve always been able to fix it in time to avoid it.

My Sudoku skills are safe for a little longer.

Start-Up / Founder of the Month - Will O’Brien, Ulysses Ecosystem Engineering:

It’s always funny writing about people you know, but the longer I spend running in start-up circles, the more exceptional founders you meet. I’ve also seen an increase in friends of mine not only interested in joining start-ups, and asking me for advice on which companies to join, but launching their own companies.

Someone who was always going to launch his own thing is Will O’Brien, a uniquely brilliant entrepreneur who has recently launched Ulysses Ecosystem Engineering alongside Colm O'Brien, Akhil Voorakkara and Jamie Wedderburn to build autonomous robots for the ocean. Their first mission is to restore seagrass ecosystems that foster biodiversity and draw down carbon from the atmosphere.

The company recently re-located to San Francisco citing a better pool of engineering talent and a culture of excellence that bleeds out of the American west coast. They recently closed $2M in pre-seed fundraise led by Lowercarbon Capital, Superorganism, the world’s first biodiversity VC, ReGen Ventures, an investor in planetary-scale regenerative technologies, as well as two of the founders of one of Ireland's best recent success stories, Intercom.

To understand why there is so much excitement about this company, I’d highly recommend listening to Will’s interview on Gary Fox’s podcast here, where he articulates why he believes the ocean has vast untapped potential for innovation, why great ideas are underrated and despite his love for Ireland, why San Francisco was a necessity for their ambition.

Since their PR splash in November 2024, Will’s thoughts often find themselves on his X account, which is well worth a follow. It’s a blend of progress updates at Ulysses, Eire accelerationism, embracing contrarian ideas, Guinness, advice for other founders or simply, good gags.

The founding team at Ulysses are building something great, and having fun doing it, which is something every founder should learn from. Best of luck gents.

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Content Corner:

• Fergus McCullough has a great piece here on an incomplete list of essays and books on company culture.

• I am rich and have no idea what to do with my life here, a fascinating read from a recently exited founder who has been left with more questions than answers after reaching financial freedom.

• Irish tech firms raise $500M+ in one week in January here, including FIRE1, Deciphex, LetsGetChecked, Mail Metrics, Dataships and XOCEAN.

• Irish tech veteran Sean Blanchfield raises €4M for AI start-up, Jentic here. The previously co-founder of PageFair and Demonware returns with a plan to simplify AI development and deployment.

• Tim Ferris launches first book in seven years here, that aims to detail the exact strategies, philosophies, word-for-word scripts, tech, and more that he and others use to create focus, calm, and meaning in a world of overwhelming noise.

• The Revival of the NDRC Accelerator here, following backlash of its proposed closure at the end of 2024. A new government has committed to it’s revival and continued investment in the entrepreneurial ecosystem in Ireland.

• DeepSeek shocked the world this month with their cost-effective R1 model, Karpathy’s tweet from last month is worth a revisit here.

Thought-Provoking Graphics:

Are you really diversified or do you even want to diversify?

A timely graphic given aspirational new year’s resolutions.

To buy or to rent? In The Netherlands the decision is becoming more clear.

Memes:

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