And over the last five seasons, when the Jays have made the playoffs three times (and are in contention to make it four), who has been Toronto’s most productive player, by WAR? Not Guerrero, Bichette, or Springer. It’s Kirk.

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But it’s interesting to look at one pivotal adjustment Kirk has made at the plate in response to how the league was attacking him. It’s allowed him to unlock something on his way to a 341/412/534 August slash line.

On the left is the start of the season, a stance/set up he was consistent with going back awhile: Crouched, slightly closed, hands/bat already in its locked position.

On the right is his current set up: No longer closed, more neutral, slightly less crouch/knee bend, bat a bit more upright & relaxed before loading.

The data supports that the stance opened (from 4° closed to essentially neutral) & the data also tells us Kirk moved about an inch off the plate & about 5” up in the batter’s box.

This is a very aggressive stance. Not only is Kirk as far up in the box as almost anyone in baseball right now, if you look at all the hitters who are further up in their initial stance, no one strides as aggressively forward as Kirk:

Look at how far up that front foot is on an average contact point for Kirk this month! His HR this past Sunday is a great example of Kirk really catching something out front. Look at how his foot is essentially making contact with where the base line connects to the batter’s box!

But, that home run came on a breaking ball. And these adjustments Kirk has made aren’t about hitting spin or off-speed stuff. It seems counter-intuitive, but I think he moved up in the box to help him against fastballs, specifically, sinkers. Let’s dig into why:

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You can’t really start this process without first establishing what we were looking at before the 2026 season began. And I’m not even talking about the postseason where he became one of the faces of the league. Postseasons are small sample-size theatre. Baseball is anything but a small sample. Real baseball is about repetition. Thousands and thousands of pitches, creating a playbook and a resume.

And Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s resume was outstanding, even before doing what he did last October.

You know what that is? That’s where Guerrero ranked in 2024-25 in probably the most important metric for predicting what should come next. Only 5 players in Major League Baseball had an expected weighted on-base over .400 in the two seasons preceding this one and Guerrero was one of them.

Listen, we as fans have a complicated relationship with Guerrero, and you can quibble with the contract, but no matter how you felt about the term of that deal, or giving it to a first baseman, what any mildly sophisticated baseball fan would tell you is that, at least for the first half of the contract, you should expect Guerrero to hit! That’s what xwOBA tells us. When you judge a hitter by what he can control: strikeouts, walks, the quality of his contact, etc… if you are one of the best in the game at that, that should be repeatable!

But that is not what has happened. And today, we want to figure out the why.

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Before I go on, I think it’s important to establish a couple things:

1. The difference between symptoms and causes. This can be very hard to distinguish in baseball terms sometimes. Is an elevated chase rate a symptom or a cause of something? Read something the other day about how someone was highlighting Guerrero’s huge year-over-year drop in barrel rate, and treating it like they had found the problem. Saying Guerrero’s barrel rate has plummeted is like saying his HR total is down or his slugging percentage is down. That’s a symptom of a problem, not a cause.

2. I really hope this doesn’t come off as slagging Guerrero or hitting him when he’s down. Because I know there is a cottage industry for that in this market. And a lot of it is coded too. When people say they have an issue with the HR jacket, or the Gatorade celebrations, or when they get a bit too upset about running down the line (even though sometimes that criticism is warranted)… Anyways, smart savvy media people know they can elicit strong reactions by playing the “Mad at Vlad” card, but that’s not what I’m trying to do here. I’m trying to solve a problem. Hopefully that comes across.

So, we knew that even if we didn’t love that Guerrero was a first baseman, with limited defensive value (given his position), and limited baserunning value, and even if he might not ever reach the heights of 2021 again, well, at least we knew he would always be, like at worst, a hitter who’s like 36% better than league average (Guerrero’s OPS+ from 2022-25 was 136). But instead, more than a 40 point drop in OPS+ year-over-year, for a slugger in his prime. And that xwOBA metric? Most of the names who were at the top for 2024-25 are still there in 2026:

But Guerrero?

SYMPTOMS

My partner is a physiotherapist. A couple of my best friends are doctors. All of them live by getting extensive patient histories. They spend so much time when they first meet someone, going over their relevant history, in the hopes of helping to accurately diagnose the issue when the time comes.

That is what this entire season has felt like for me, watching Guerrero. Something is wrong. I don’t think anyone knows with 100% certainty what it is, and I don’t think it’s any one thing, but by diving into the patient’s history, and by accurately acknowledging the symptoms, I think we can get closer to an accurate diagnosis. This opening section is about exclusively objective data.

· POWER – Guerrero’s HR/FB rate was 27% in 2021, 14% in 2025 & 5% this year. His ISO has dropped more than 80 points year-over-year, one of the ten biggest drops in the league.

· DISCIPLINE – Guerrero is chasing more than he ever has (31%) and his 9% year-over-year increase is one of the biggest in MLB. This is one of the biggest surprises from this season. Over his last 65 games, Guerrero has more than a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio (42 strikeouts, 18 walks). In 2024 & 2025, Guerrero had one of the best strikeout to walk ratios in the league, so to see the walks kinda disappear while strikeouts simultaneously tick up? Big red flag.

OPPORTUNITY – This goes hand-in-hand with discipline. You have to go back to his rookie season to find a year where Guerrero was seeing pitches in the strike zone less often than 2026 (more granular: You have to go back to May 2019 to find a month where Guerrero is seeing pitches in the zone less often than August 2026). His 5.5% year-over-year drop in zone rate is among the biggest in MLB. And with 2 strikes, Guerrero sees a pitch in the zone 35% of the time. That’s easily the lowest mark of his career & 10% lower year-over-year. Chase more, and the league will stop throwing you pitches in the zone. Simple.

· FREQUENCY OF CONTACT – Guerrero makes a lot of contact, and he’s making a lot of contact out of the strike zone. Guerrero’s contact rate on pitches out of the strike zone is close to 70%. That’s one of the highest marks in the league and an 8% jump year-over-year.

· QUALITY OF CONTACT – His hard hit rate is way down. He’s no longer an exit velo king. The quality of his contact (xwobaCON) is down more than 60 points year-over-year and more than 100 points compared to 2024.

· INABILITY TO PUNISH MISTAKES – Over the first 6 years of the 2020s, Guerrero was, at worst, a top 10 player in the league when a pitcher threw a middle-middle pitch. He had a .813 slug% against these pitches. This year, Guerrero ranks 209^th in the league in run value vs middle-middle pitches, and that slugging pct has been more than halved to .400. Look at the difference in middle-middle run value between 2024 & 2026 for Guerrero:

· DIRECTION OF CONTACT – Guerrero’s groundball rate is a touch higher year-over-year but not meaningfully different and still much lower than this career-highs. He pulled groundballs more often in his otherworldly 2021 season than he is in 2026. His avg launch angle is almost identical year-over-year. His pull rate overall is similar. This sounds unremarkable but will be important later.

· PRODUCTION BY PITCH TYPE - Guerrero is hitting .345 against fastballs this season, the 2^nd highest average of his career behind only 2021. If the point is a lack of slug, he’s slugging .473 off fastballs this year, higher than 2024, 2023, and 2020. Respectfully, fastballs aren’t the issue.

· PRODUCTION BY PITCH LOCATION - Guerrero is still pretty good at laying off chase/waste pitches, and though the middle-middle thing is a factor, he’s not bad elsewhere if the pitch is comfortably in the zone. But the spot where Guerrero is really hurting this year is when a pitcher makes a pitcher’s pitch and hits the edge of the zone. Last couple years, Guerrero was a top-50 player in terms of run value when a pitch was on the edge of the zone. This year, he’s a career-low -22 and he ranks 286th in the league. He’s making too many outs in this zone (particularly before 2 strikes), and there aren’t enough hits there.

· PRODUCTION BY COUNT – Guerrero is just as effective with 2 strikes as he has been the last few years. He has one of the highest 2-strike averages & on-base percentages in baseball:

· But his production before 2 strikes has plummeted.

DISCUSSION/ANALYSIS

SPIN ZONE

Let’s start here: If it’s not about fastballs, it’s gotta be about something else.

Run Value Ranks

2021-25 vs 2026

5^th vs Fastballs 49^th

4^th vs Spin 327^th (out of 329)

31^st vs Off-Speed 168^th

Run Value Ranks

2021-25 vs 2026

13^th Fastballs 49^th

8th Non-Fastballs 324^th (out of 329)

Want to know how to read that graphic? The numbers aren’t important. Only this is: 4 of the 8 worst months of Guerrero’s career against spin have come this season. And this month in particular is the worst month of Guerrero’s career against cutters and breakers:

What makes this so shocking is that Guerrero was THE BEST HITTER ON THE PLANET against spin in two different seasons (2021 & 2024) prior to this one. So, to go from one of the very best in the league hitting spin to one of the worst?

Unfathomable.

COUNT-ING PROBLEMS

Guerrero’s production just absolutely evaporating before 2 strikes, especially in good hitter’s counts (as you can see in the multitude of charts above) is just strange. Not surprisingly, there’s an antsy-ness to Guerrero’s plate appearances in these counts. Just look at his chase rate in 3-1 counts:

A STORY TO TELL

So, I’ve observed for months. I’ve looked at, literally, all of the data. (Aside: That’s not entirely true. I’m confident in saying I’ve looked at essentially every piece of public data about Guerrero’s 2026 season. But there are proprietary pieces of info I would love to see – more on that later). We have the patient’s history. And I’m ready for a multi-pronged diagnosis that might nevertheless still lack a definitive, simple hypothesis.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr felt great coming into the 2026 season. He had a great postseason, and a strong WBC (though a lot of that production came vs non-MLB-level competition). And his season began strong. Guerrero was slashing 354/438/469 at the end of April. But his team was struggling. 5 games under .500 in early May, and Guerrero’s lack of power was a minor talking point. And even though the Jays played good baseball in May, Guerrero’s only HR felt almost accidental, an 0-2 inside fastball that he just kinda dropped the bat head onto.

But that HR off an inside fastball was symbolic, a micro-example of a macro-trend: On a rate basis in May, Guerrero saw more inside fastballs than he had in any other month of his big-league career. There is data to support the notion that Guerrero noticed this (the distance of his stance to the plate moved one inch further away from April to May).

And what I think happened, in the first few months of this season, is that as Guerrero started to chase power, and realized teams were challenging him with hard stuff in, he moved off the plate, started stepping in the bucket, and tried to uppercut his way into some HRs.

And as this process evolved, and as Guerrero’s process got less disciplined, the league as a whole—which reacts to hitters faster than ever—started realizing what Guerrero was targeting. They realized they could show inside with hard off the plate, then get Guerrero out with spin away.

I also believe what happened this year tied into something Guerrero has been trying to move away from for years. He hates the idea of grounding out. I suspect he knows about the conversations and the comments about how often he hit grounders over the first few years of his career. And when you compare his swing rates by zone from a couple years ago to now, a pattern emerges.

Guerrero this year has been targeting pitches up in the zone. He desperately wants to elevate (and conversely, wants to avoid groundballs).

I think it’s instructive to compare Guerrero’s bat paths and contact points with another right-handed power hitter. Here is how they compare vs fastballs:

Guerrero might be a tick late just slightly more often against fastballs, but he squares them up on the bat more often too. Either way, very similar process and similar results too. But when you look at how they approach spin:

Guerrero is flailing or catching the end of the bat way more often, and he’s getting under the ball way more often too.

And when you look at Guerrero’s & Dingler’s results, it’s enlightening: Their difference in slugging pct vs fastballs is like 70 points. The difference in their slug vs spin is like 300 points.

I think all this data points to an idea that Guerrero was listening to that common refrain about being on time for the heater. I think his production suggests he’s sat fastball a lot this year. And I think his desire to target fastballs either up or on the inner half has left him exposed to spin away.

And I think showing exposure to any one pitch or location is never more glaring and destructive for an MLB hitter than it is today with modern pitch development and scouting.

This next batch of data I think illustrates what’s happening to Guerrero more than anything else:

· This year, 27% of Guerrero’s balls in play are on pitches out of the strike zone, that’s a career-high and a 10% increase, year-over-year. He’s already put a career-high 60 balls in play on pitches out of the strike zone, before 2 strikes (among the 10 highest totals in MLB).

· In 2021, a career-high 44% of Guerrero’s balls in play were on pitches in the heart of the zone, before 2 strikes. That was an MLB-high rate. In other words, Guerrero was dictating the terms of how his plate appearances were going to end, better than anyone else in baseball. That’s outstanding process.

· This year? A career-low 29% of Guerrero’s balls in play are on pitches in the heart of the zone, before 2 strikes. That ranks 225^th in MLB. Not good process.

In years past, when Guerrero was in the batter’s box, he was in the driver’s seat, he was in control, he was the conductor. This year, it seems as if Guerrero is reactive instead of active. It seems as if he’d prefer counter-punching (with 2 strikes, for example) rather than ambushing.

SOLUTIONS

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26 teams are spending more on players than Tampa this season.

Despite always spending among the very least in the game, the Rays are about to play in the postseason for the sixth time since 2019. Only three teams have been in the playoffs more often during that time frame.

And seeing how they rebuilt one particular area of their team over the last couple years provides a perfect example of how they always seem to be ahead of the curve in roster construction.

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In 2024, the Rays had the 20th most productive outfield in baseball while spending around $12 million in payroll on it.

In 2025, the Rays went minimum salary almost across the board, and had the 25th most productive outfield.

But this year, while still spending less than they did in 2024, the Rays have the 6th most productive outfield in Major League Baseball (approaching 7 fWAR).

How did they do it? Let’s dive in.

JULY 2022

Baseball is in the midst of a bit of a reckoning. They know they need more balls in play, they know they need more action, and they know they need to bring athleticism back into the game. The rule changes are coming. About shifts, about pitch clocks, about base sizes… all of them coming in good time. And the league knows they’re coming.

So, in the 2022 MLB draft, Tampa picks a player with one career collegiate HR more than 50 spots higher than where MLB Pipeline had him ranked. Chandler Simpson went 70th overall, and four years later, he’s a top-30 outfielder in Major League Baseball.

DECEMBER 2023

The Rays have to trade Tyler Glasnow, because it’s just what they do. Get something back before you lose the star pitcher for nothing.

But they don’t go hunting for star power in the lower levels of the minors. Instead, they add an MLB-ready pitcher in Ryan Pepiot & an athletic, fast 25-year old who can probably contribute in the next 1-2 years.

Jonny DeLuca is about to give Tampa a 2-win season on the strength of great defence & baserunning while making the league minimum.

JULY 2024

The Rays trade away Randy Arozarena. He was & is a great hitter. But he’s a poor defender. He’s having a great season for the Mariners, but also costing them $16,000,000.

THIS WINTER

• Christopher Morel was a prized acquisition in the Isaac Paredes trade. He was averaging 25 HR per 162 games over the first four seasons of his career. Tampa non-tendered him in part, because he was a horrible defender & baserunner.

• From 2023-25, Josh Lowe hit more than 40 HR & was an above-average hitter for the Rays. He was traded, in part, because he was a poor defender.

• The Rays signed 31-year old Cedric Mullins for $7 million. Despite declining offensive production, Mullins remains a good baserunner and defender. And after some changes to his offensive approach (fewer pulled grounders than ever, more pulled flyballs than ever, the most bunts of his career), Mullins has found a way to do just enough offensively to be a productive player.

• Tampa makes a small trade for a 24-year old outfielder who had shown small flashes of speed & power in the minors. Victor Mesa Jr has 10 HR in 55 games this season, while providing elite defence.

THE RESULTS

Tampa has the 6th most productive outfield in baseball, while spending just north of $10 million on it. They’ve got the 3rd best defensive outfield in baseball (16th in 2024-25 combined) and it’s likely the fastest group of outfielders in baseball (while definitely being the best collection of baserunners).

As a comparison, Toronto’s four most productive outfielders this year (Lukes, Varsho, Straw, Sanchez) are providing about 3 fWAR at a cost of about $25 million. Not to mention the 118 games from Pinango, Schneider, Barger, Bateman, Clase, Springer, Cameron & McAdoo that’s provided 0.3 fWAR.

ANALYSIS

One thing I really, really like about the Rays this year is how the pieces all seem to really fit well together.

For example, their speedy, defensively-elite outfield is augmented or highlighted by a pitching staff that doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, barely walks anyone, and has one of the lowest groundball rates in the league. Unsurprisingly, the Rays are converting a league-high 65% of their opponent’s non-groundballs into outs this year.

Nick Martinez was one of the best free agent signings of the winter. He has one of the biggest year-over-year drops in ERA in the entire league, and again, it’s not hard to see why. He was a fly ball pitcher playing in a home park known for augmenting home runs, and he had bad outfield defence behind him for those two seasons in Cincy:

The Rays targeting a flyball pitcher who wasn’t put in the best position to succeed, knowing he will play at the Trop, with a bunch of speedy outfielders going to flag down all his opponent’s fly balls? Brilliant.

The other implied acknowledgment here that I like is how it seems as if teams are realizing the true importance of outfield defence:

The 10 most proficient outfield defences in baseball features seven teams currently in a playoff spot, another team that’s six games over .500 and another team that’s just one game out of a playoff spot. Almost all of these teams also (including each of the top 7) have pitching staffs who are outperforming their expected ERAs.

Those of you who have followed me on twitter for years know how much emphasis I place on outfield defence. It feels like the league is really starting to buy in.

ONE OTHER THING ABOUT THE RAYS

As an aside, I also think it’s interesting that while the Rays are taking steps to be able to convert balls hit into the air into outs, they’re seemingly taking a contradictory approach at the plate. Teams like the Rays & Brewers are putting the ball on the ground as much as any team in the league. Be fast and athletic, don’t strike out, bunt, put the ball in play to the left side of the infield (preferably with left-handed hitters), then see what happens.

I’d also be willing to wager a few bucks, that if we were to test the firmness of the area just in front and around home plate at each home park, I’d bet you the Trop is one of the hardest in the league. I think guys like Simpson, Mullins & DeLuca just drive the ball straight down (be it on bunts or grounders), then see what happens with the hop as they’re 10 steps down the line already.

BRINGING IT BACK TO THE BLUE JAYS

Acquiring Brett Bateman was the first step towards the Jays regaining their status as an elite outfield-defending group. And as an aside, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Jays are pitching so well and suppressing runs while their defence has suddenly become one of the best in baseball over the last month and a half:

But I think it’s worth acknowledging that Bateman might not be ready for a full 600 PA season in 2027. I think it’s worth acknowledging Jesus Sanchez might get DFAd this offseason, and I think it’s worth acknowledging Yohendrick Pinango might be a 4th OF/DH type if his defence doesn’t improve.

With all that being said, I think the Jays could be in the market for another speed/elite outfield defence guy in the off-season. If it were me, here are the guys I would at least inquire about:

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But thought I’d take the chance to dive into this race, and take a guess on how it might play out.

INCREDIBLY CLOSE

Let’s start here: I have no idea how this is going to shake out and no one else does either. Everyone who takes this opportunity to say, “playoff odds mean nothing” just has a dislike for numbers. Right now, all of these teams have between a 17%-37% chance of making the postseason, and the teams with higher percentages are only getting that because they’re also in the mix for a division title.

(Aside: For the purposes of this discussion, I’m not including the White Sox or the Astros, but to be clear, I do not think it’s a sure thing that either are playing in October)

People around these parts like to talk about strength of schedule, but there’s a bit of a narrow lens factor at play there. Yes, the Jays have an easy closing sked, but so do many of these teams.

SCHEDULING QUIRKS

Strength of schedule is a funny thing, it helps to see what’s going on for sure, but it also doesn’t paint a complete picture. For instance, strength of schedule would view a series against the Jays right now as a good thing for an opposing team. But the way the Jays are pitching of late, and because they’re going to be fighting their butts off for a playoff spot, a matchup with Toronto isn’t an appealing thing.

The other part about SOS is that it misses one of the most important aspects of baseball: Who’s on the mound that day. Yes, a series against Milwaukee will always be tough, but it’s exponentially harder if you’re seeing Jacob Misiorowski. If you’re seeing Pittsburgh, are you facing Skenes? If you’re playing the White Sox, do you see one of Burke or Martin, both, or neither?

Anyways! Here are some things that stand out from a scheduling POV:

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Also, as good a time as ever to let people know if you’re going to use the “quarter-pole” analogy, this is the time (75% thru something, 25% left) to do it, not when you’re 25% into something (you’re welcome).

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EARLY IMPRESSIONS ON BRETT BATEMAN

I like Brett Bateman. We’ve established this. His speed & defence were sorely needed. I made a Steven Kwan comparison a couple weeks ago that feels strong. But some things have surprised me:

I didn’t quite realize the uniqueness of his stance. Very narrow & open, sorta in the vein of Kwan or an Adidson Barger (without the bat speed or muscles).

His swing & batted ball profile is about what I thought: Short & quick to the baseball with a path & average contact point that produces opposite field & centre field batted balls.

I’d say probably the biggest thing I’m looking forward to is when he gets used to MLB pitching a bit, maybe has a chance to slow everything down, and his elite plate discipline & swing decisions start to show up. In AAA this year, he had a tiny 2% gap between his walk rate & strikeout rate. That’s up to 17% in a tiny big league sample (8% walk, 25% strikeout). His chase rate is about 13% higher. Here’s one way of looking at it: You want as big of a gap between your in-zone & out-of-zone swing rates. George Springer is fantastic at this (48% gap). Bateman’s so far is only 28% (62% in zone vs 34% chase). So, you’d like to see him swing at more pitches in the zone, while laying off a few more out of it.

But overall, very very happy with what I’ve seen up close from Bateman so far.

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Down To Black

Trust: Some Words About Kevin Gausman

Alright, let’s get some admitted biases out of the way: Gausman is in his mid-to-late-ish 30s, married, with a couple daughters. It seems like he tries his absolute hardest to be a great dad…

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a month ago · 13 likes · 2 comments · Chris Black

True story/aside: Won’t say how, but some guys on the TV crew might have been the first ones to sense something might be up on a potential Kevin Gausman trade yesterday down at the Dome. It didn’t lead to anything concrete enough to put on air but while we were pursuing it, we came close enough to having a graphic ready with Kevin Gausman in a Cubs uniform. It was weird/surreal!

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But let’s get to the story. It’s not about Gausman or what he was worth or whatever….

THIS IS A STORY ABOUT SPEED.

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the fewest home runs in Major League Baseball & they have the best record in Major League Baseball. The Diamondbacks have hit the 2^nd fewest home runs and have a winning record. The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 4^th fewest home runs in Major League Baseball and have a winning record. Only 4 teams have hit fewer home runs than either the Boston Red Sox or Tampa Bay Rays in Major League Baseball this season & they have the 7^th- and 4^th-best records, respectively.

Power has—seemingly—never been less important to regular season success.

With new rules, and with pitching never more dominant, certain skills have become more en vogue. Contact, strike zone management, and the ability to put pressure on the defence.

In short, speed, baserunning, and defence feel more important than they ever have. Consider this: You know how the NL being way better than the AL has been a huge story this season. People not really understanding how or why it was happening? Well, here’s at least a partial explanation: NL teams just fielding and running way, way, way better, collectively:

And, for a few years, it seemed as if the Jays were pursuing this type of team. The additions of Varsho, Kiermaier, and Chapman for example, while investing heavily in pitching, implied a focus on run prevention and, at least, improving their baserunning.

But, the Jays have fundamental personnel realities that will always make it challenging to have a good baserunning team, and in recent years, the defence has gone away from being truly elite.

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If the star of the 2025 postseason could have backed it up with a strong regular season, the Jays would be right in the thick of the playoff race.

And while there’s no doubt Guerrero has struggled, it’s both unfair and inaccurate to pin *all* of Toronto’s current situation on their $500 million player.

Let’s first knock away one big chunk off the boulder: It has nothing to do with pitching. Toronto’s Wins Above Replacement from their pitching staff in 2026 has already surpassed their 2025 total.

But when you break down the Blue Jays’ position players, group by group, two stories emerge. And both stories reject popular opinion.

Will list these in order from smallest drop in WAR to biggest:

2ND BASE (0.0 change in WAR from 2025 to 26)

The Jays are getting more offence out of 2nd base this year, but it’s been offset by big drops in baserunning and defence. It will wind up as an improvement, but the defence & running feels like unnecessary regression. Still, not an issue.

3RD BASE (-1.2 WAR drop year-over-year)

Kazuma Okamoto could wind up with 30 home runs, but his production is probably overstated in the land of casual fans. Okamoto is a bit streaky, strikes out a bit too much, and his defence is a bit clunky. And, some might forget that the Jays got 150 real good games out of Barger & Clement at 3rd last year. Regardless, by end of year, this should wind up pretty close. Not a big issue.

RIGHT FIELD (-1.7 WAR drop year-over-year)

Last year, Jays right fielders hit 21 home runs & drove in close to 90 RBIs. This year, those numbers are down to 8 & 34. Jesus Sanchez has not replaced Addison Barger’s production, and while Nathan Lukes is a reliable veteran, he has 5 HR in 76 games while playing RF.

LEFT FIELD (-1.8 WAR drop year-over-year)

The Jays got sneaky good production out of left field last year. Davis Schneider hit 9 HR in 53 games. Lukes, Joey Loperfido, and George Springer all produced as well. This year, Yohendrick Pinango & Schneider have both struggled to produce.

1ST BASE (-2.5 WAR drop year-over-year)

We all know about Guerrero’s struggles. But two points to make here: One, he only hit 20 HR at 1st last year, and his WAR was only 3.4. He didn’t have a dominant year. So it’s not like the production dropoff is massive. Next, it’s worth pointing out just how much some of Toronto’s backup 1st basemen have struggled in 2026. Lenyn Sosa, Charles McAdoo, Sean Keys, and Brandon Valenzuela are a combined 6-for-64 (.094 avg) at 1st this season, without an extra-base hit or RBI in 22 games.

SHORTSTOP (-2.6 WAR drop year-over-year)

Bo Bichette hit .316 last year with 15 HR & 83 RBI out of the shortstop position (with below-average defence & baserunning). Also worth mentioning though, that Ernie Clement hit .329 in 27 games at shortstop last year, too. But, the defence has been way better. It doesn’t make up for the lost offence, but in theory, the Jays were going to give up offence at this position, in the hopes of making it up in other places.

CENTRE FIELD (-2.6 WAR drop year-over-year)

Last year, the Jays got close to 30 HR & 100 RBIs out of the Centre Field spot, with great defence and baserunning to boot. Daulton Varsho was awesome for 65 games, but Straw & Lukes were great as the primary backups and Jonatan Clase and George Springer each had moments, as well. Straw and Lukes have been good this year, but not sure anyone saw this coming from Varsho in a contract year. There’s a theory out there that maybe some personality types aren’t suited to the pressure of contract years. Maybe Varsho would have been better off signing a modest extension after 2025.

CATCHER (-4.0 WAR drop year-over-year)

Now, we get to the two biggest year-over-year drops. While everyone can see and notice Alejandro Kirk’s struggles, the enthusiasm over Brandon Valenzuela has overshadowed just big of a hole this has been. Valenzuela has been good (great defence with average hitting). But, we forget both just how great Tyler Heineman was last year in 54 games, and how bad he was in 28 games this year. Last year, Jays catchers’ had a .768 OPS (5th in MLB), this year it’s .638 (21st). I would say most people who watch this team closely were expecting some type of regression from Kirk after a really busy 2025, but probably not to this degree.

DESIGNATED HITTER (-4.0 WAR drop year-over-year)

Springer was one of the best hitters in baseball last year, plus Guerrero, Bichette & Santander added 10 HR in fill-in duty at DH too. Add it all up, and the Jays got 34 HR & 102 RBI from their DHs in 2025. This year, obviously Springer has struggled, but Guerrero has an on-base% when DHing this year below .200. Again, for as much as Guerrero has struggled, it’s shocking to see that two other spots for this team have been significantly more affected by year-over-year regression.

SUMMARY

Vladimir Guerrero Jr has struggled this year. And it’s certainly been a factor in the Toronto Blue Jays’ disappointing 2026 season. He just hasn’t lived up to the billing that comes with being one of highest-paid athletes in the world.

But, he’s getting a disproportionate share of the attention and blame. The HR total and the contract value explain why, but still, I prefer to live in a world where we can fully and accurately explain things.

And unfortunately, this season is about much more than Guerrero Jr.

The most accurate, concise explanation of the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays is this: Production from Blue Jays position players will drop year-over-year at all but one or two positions. Given his age and his postseason production last fall, Guerrero’s regression is disappointing, but nowhere near the most significant or damaging to the club. Instead, this has been a collective failure to produce. Up and down the lineup, from players young and old, from high paid to minimum wage.

Yes, this is about Guerrero, and he has to be better in 2027 and beyond, but it’s also about George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, Andres Gimenez, Jesus Sanchez, Davis Schneider, and others. Baseball is truly a team game. No one player can win a game or take you to the postseason, and the opposite of that axiom is also true.

As I said off the top, there’s going to be lots of airtime devoted to this team over the next day. Here’s hoping at least some of it paints an accurate picture.

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One of the things I really liked about Hoffman’s game last night was how he mixed up his usual patterns. He had been heavy splitter usage to lefties most of the season, but last night, he threw a lot of sliders to LHB. He induced 4 whiffs to lefties on sliders and you’d have to go back to 2019 when Hoffman was a starter to find the last time he got more whiffs on breaking balls against LHB.

But, Hoffman has been better than his results all year and, if we’re being honest, the last two months have been pretty damn good:

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It seems like he enjoys himself on his off-days. And not that this really matters, but his politics feel like they might be more aligned with my own than most pro athletes.

In other words, I relate to this dude.

But it goes far beyond that.

Now, let’s get through the simplest stuff first: He’s been one of the best baseball players in the world in the 2020s. Consider, he ranks:

• 1st in starts (197, including the postseason)

• 3rd in innings (Valdez, Wheeler)

• 3rd in strikeouts (Cease, Wheeler)

• 7th in wins

In terms of Wins Above Replacement, he ranks 12th in MLB (position player or pitcher) this decade.

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Some have quibbled about how deep he’s going into games, but, he’s on pace to have one of the best seasons by a starting pitcher in franchise history, so maybe we should dial down the quibbling.

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Cease is so dominant, his stuff is so nasty, and he makes it look so easy at times that I think it overshadows his effectiveness. And putting his season in context, comparing what he’s on pace for to the best to ever wear a Toronto uniform can help inform us to just how good he’s been.

Cease is on pace for north of 250 strikeouts, a threshold only reached by Roger Clemens as a Jay:

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Strikeouts and walks are fundamental measures of a baseball team. This isn’t news. But they can go a long way towards explaining the secret sauce of the Toronto Blue Jays.

2025 Jays pitchers were 8th in strikeout rate, middle of the pack in walk rate, 6th in strikeout minus walk rate.

2025 Jays hitters had the best strikeout rate, were 13th in walk rate, and had the best (smallest) strikeout minus walk rate

Toronto’s pitching K-BB% rate last season was 5.6% higher than their hitting rate. That gap was the biggest in MLB last year:

It’s not all that difficult to conceptualize why this can be such an advantage. If your hitters are drawing a decent amount of walks while at the same time limiting strikeouts, there are all sorts of benefits. Extending pitch counts, getting into bullpens, putting pressure on defences, etc… And the inverse is clearly true for pitchers.

But, one thing that I’ve come to appreciate more and more is when you look at this through the lens of a 3- or 4- game series as opposed to just one game (or even if you extrapolate further, to a couple weeks or a month’s worth of baseball). Meaning, when you do those things over a longer stretch of baseball (or even in a, ahem, playoff series), it can have additive effects. A bullpen can wear down. A team can get comfortable seeing a pitcher.

Which brings us to the 2026 Blue Jays.

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And I said that before last October. And before this 2026 season!

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On April 29^th, Vladimir Guerrero Jr went 3-for-3 with a walk against the Red Sox. Sure, he only had two home runs, but his .358 batting average was 2^nd in baseball. His .444 on-base percentage was 2^nd in baseball too. We had seen this kind of power delay from Guerrero before. None of us were concerned.

But the power hasn’t come. And everything else has dried up.

Guerrero is slashing 213/293/275 over the 57 games since that high point. In that span, he’s grounded into more double plays (10) than he has extra-base hits (9). His slugging percentage in that time ranks 153^rd out of 155 qualified hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong has generated 4.8 WAR over the same stretch. 22 others have put up 2 wins or more of production. Guerrero is at -0.5.

It’s been a disastrous stretch for him personally, and it’s one of the biggest reasons why this team is six games below .500.

But I’m here to tell you that I’ve gone 180° on Guerrero.

I’ve been a worrier when it comes to Guerrero ever since he signed the giant contract extension. I’m obsessed with context. Proper value. Well, the contract always felt like a huge risk, in context. even if you could explain it.

But then October happened. We thought we were off to the races. We thought superstardom awaited. Vlad had been good, if not great, for a long-time but doing it in the spotlight of the postseason? Hanging with Ortiz and A-Rod? Dropping “Da Yankees lose?” It was like a fever dream.

Now? As this slump dove steeper and deeper into the abyss, at first, I almost felt validated. See, I was right to worry! But, I’ve learned how empty of a feeling that can be.

What fun is there in maybe winding up right about something like that?

Here’s the thing: Among people not directly in Major League Baseball, I’d say I’ve watched Guerrero closer than 99.5% of the rest of us. I’ve pored over video, I’ve looked at every chart on statcast.com. I’ve made my own damn charts. I’ve talked to scouts, coaches, former players, current players, former broadcasters and current broadcasters about him. I know what he looks like at his best. And I know what he looks like at his worst. And this is, without exaggeration, one of three defined low points for him as a hitter in Major League Baseball (Covid 2020 & end of 2022 being the other two):

But, this game is about more than just hitting. And, if we’re being honest, if we step back, if we could see beyond the slump, we would have to admit that the 2026 Guerrero is doing almost everything you’d want to see your franchise player do.

Consider:

· Despite being a measurably slow runner, he has improved his poor baserunning over the last few years all the way to a league-average level this season.

· He has improved his poor defence. He was among the least-productive fielders over the first six seasons of his career. Got to a league-average level in 2025. Now is one of the best first basemen in the league.

· He puts the ball in play. He doesn’t strike out. He takes walks.

· He’s consistently a league leader in terms of getting the runner in from 3^rd with less than 2 out. This season, he’s succeeded 3 out of every 4 times he’s been put in that scenario (15/20). He’s always among the team leaders in productive outs.

In other words, he’s doing ALL the little things that you’d want a superstar to do. If he was doing all that stuff AND hitting 20 home runs? He’d be an MVP candidate. He’s showing all of us that he cares. That he’s willing to sacrifice for his team. For his franchise.

He’s doing all the little things. Just not the big ones.

· His hard hit rate is down 7 percent year-over-year, and down 11 percent from two years ago.

· He’s getting his barrel on the baseball half as often as he was two years ago.

· His slugging percentage is down 120 points from last year, nearly 200 points from two years ago, and more than 250 points from his career-high.

· That slugging percentage is the lowest of any first baseman in Major League Baseball.

· The fewest home runs hit by any Jays first baseman with a qualified amount of at-bats is 8, by John Olerud in 1995. But he hit .291 with an on-base% approaching .400. Vlad will need to *increase* his home run rate just to beat Olerud.

· Right now, Guerrero’s 2026 is about the 45^th best offensive season by a Jays first baseman. Not great for a slugger in his prime.

It’s just strange, right? Guerrero’s highs over his career have been as high as any hitter in the game. But his lows are, measurably, lower than any other great hitter in his cohort. Soto, Judge, Ohtani, Devers, Trout, Acuna, etc… none of them have a 60ish-game stretch in their career like Guerrero over the past couple months.

But again, the biggest thing that’s changed in terms of how I absorb these struggles as a fan or an observer is that it’s moved from frustration to hope and curiosity.

We know he cares. We can quibble about how he can apply that caring in better ways, I guess, but, he wants to win, and he wants to bring this franchise a World Series. That much I know for sure, and that’s all I need to know, to be honest.

I’ll still remain the guy who dives into his numbers. I’ll never stop wondering about how he’s faring against spin, or whether he’s working too far underneath the baseball, or what happens to his swing when he chases power. All that minutiae (and more!) will still be on my corner.

And maybe today’s the day. Maybe it’s a key home run off Logan Webb. Then again, maybe it’s not, maybe it’s a walk, and a sac fly. Or maybe the hole gets deeper, with strikeouts and GIDPs.

But I’ve realized that these struggles Guerrero has gone through, is going through, and will go through are what makes him such a compelling figure. He’s human. Shohei Ohtani is fun, but he’s an alien. When you think about it, a demi-God isn’t all that interesting to watch play sports.

Give me the guy who will card a couple double bogeys but could still win a major or two over the metronome par-machine any day.

Give me Hamlet and Othello and Brutus and Henry V and Vlad. I want ups and downs. I want to keep turning the page. No matter what, it’s a must-read story that’s being written, and I’m not ashamed to say it’s hard not to pull for this particular protagonist.

“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.”

Thanks for reading.

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WHAT IT ISN’T:

• It’s not about Bo Bichette. Bichette gave the Jays 3.8 wins above replacement last season. Kaz Okamoto is on pace for similar production in 2026.

• It’s not about Jeff Hoffman. Yes, he struggled and was on the mound for a couple blown saves. But for close to two months, Hoffman has been nearly perfect, with only one blip in Baltimore in late May when he fell victim to the BABIP gods. Hoffman has a 0.69 ERA since June 1st. Anyways, relief pitching not an issue.

• It’s not about starting pitching. Toronto’s starters had a 4.34 ERA, 4.46 FIP, and produced 8.5 WAR last season. 2026 Blue Jays starters have a 4.47 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and are on pace to produce 10.9 WAR. Now, there is room to quibble here about the top-heaviness of that 2026 production, and there have been some ugly outings. But let’s not forget that Bowden Francis made 14 starts last year (to the tune of a 6.05 ERA and -0.8 WAR).

• It’s also not about lineup protection (for anyone), or lineup depth, or wanting it or a hangover or any other non-quantitative thing anyone can say. What this is about is really quite simple:

WHAT IT IS:

Toronto’s top 6 returning players, based on WAR, are Vladimir Guerrero, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, and Addison Barger.

The Jays are paying that group ~$90m this season. They were relying on them for similar production in 2026.

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(Quick aside: I always wonder if this logic extends to managers - do these players not respect guys like Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox, Tommy Lasorda, etc… because they didn’t play in the bigs?)

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Anyways, it’s a tired argument. Filled with strawmen and illogical talking points. Information helps organizations make better decisions. That’s it. End of story.

I bring this up to talk about yesterday’s starter Shane Bieber. Bieber was coming off a start where he pitched into the 6th inning, allowing only 2 runs. There was legitimate enthusiasm about his start, and that’s no strawman. “Encouraging signs” was a term I heard used. Could see “better stuff going forward” was another direct quote. And even tepid praise viewed it as progress compared to his first start. I didn’t share the enthusiasm. And nerdy expected stats were a big reason why.

Bieber allowed 5 hits that day in Toronto in 20 opponent ABs. A totally respectable opponent batting average of .250. But the average exit velocity on the balls in play was 95mph (MLB avg is 89). Based on the quality of contact against Bieber, he had an expected slugging pct against of .579, but the actual opp slg% was .400. That nearly 180 point gap between actual & expected slugging (in the “lucky” direction) was one of the biggest all season by a Jays starter. And when you combine that “luck” with lots of walks, and minimal swing&miss/strikeouts, it’s a recipe for regression.

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And in May, when he wasn’t walking guys, Cease gave up 4 HR off his 4-seamer. You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time he gave up so many bombs in a month off his primary pitch.

Now, to be clear, we are picking nits here. Cease is on pace for a 5+ win season, will be an all-star, and is probably 2nd on the pecking order for AL Cy Young.

But, the tantalizing part about Cease, and has been his whole career, is that we see that he could be even better. A touch more consistent. Get a touch deeper into ball games.

How he accomplishes those things has always been the (multi-) million dollar question, but right now, to me, the solution is pretty straight-forward:

THROW MORE SINKERS!

On a per-pitch basis, the sinker has been Cease’s most productive offering this year:

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You see McLean is known for his breaking balls and sinkers. He moves the ball east-to-west (or vice versa) as well as anyone in the game.

And, last year, Jays hitters feasted on spin:

Toronto’s 10 HRs off breaking balls last postseason was an MLB record dating back to 2008. And it followed a trend where Jays hitters demolished breakers all year long:

Toronto’s .252 average & +41 run value vs breaking balls last regular season led all of MLB

And their +45 run value including the postseason was the 7th best against breaking balls in the Statcast era:

But, the Jays have gone, literally, from first to worst when it comes to hitting against breaking balls:

When you dig into these numbers on a player-by-player basis, it’s not hard to diagnose the issues.

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Here’s what stands out:

• Defence, particularly in the outfield

  From 2023-25, the Blue Jays had the highest-rated outfield defence in baseball (+55 fielding run value). This year, they rank 23rd (-7). And Saturday provided a couple more examples of these struggles, including one in the first inning. And while Yohendrick Pinango is where our eyes naturally gravitate towards, the fact is the ball in the first landed in a spot almost equidistant from Pinango & Daulton Varsho.

But, both Pinango & Varsho got very poor reads/jumps (-8 & -10 feet respectively compared to league average), and the ball dropped in.

Perhaps the most notable aspect of this play was Dylan Cease’s frustrated reaction. I think there are signs that Toronto’s outfield defence has reached a true frustration point with pitchers, particularly starters. We have seen outward displays of negative emotion after similar plays from Cease, Gausman, and Yesavage this year.

Cease & Gausman have both had -2 runs of fielding run value in the outfield behind them this year, and this comes after Gausman led the league in that metric from 2023-25.

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But I’m here to tell you: You should be optimistic about George Springer.

I understand what the big picture says. The big picture says the aging curve doesn’t move for anyone. The big picture says last year was an aberration and this year is the natural decline, continuing after a one-year hiatus. A slightly smaller picture says, even in June, he’s only hitting .161.

But, in order to be early on the upswing, you need to notice things before anyone else.

The recommendation should be to Buy.

A Sunday Morning Deep Dive follows.

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We knew this with our eyes, but we also know this, now, because new data tells us so.

June 2024 was a breakout month for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He hit 8 HR with an OPS approaching 1.000. And it wasn’t just the raw numbers, it was how he was hitting the baseball.

Humans don’t hit the ball the way Vlad hit that first HR in the clip package, and you know that’s true based off his teammates’ reactions:

To steal some new vernacular from our friends at Statcast, Guerrero was centered, on time, and on plane for that one (and many others that month).

Now, contrast that from two early-count fastballs in May:

Guerrero decided late, and worked under the baseball on both swings:

And it’s part of a pattern we saw with Guerrero last month… Compared to that epic June 2024, where Guerrero’s HRs almost seemed accidental (as you could tell in those clips), Guerrero’s timing and swing paths were just off in May:

After the jump, I’ll explain what those terms mean, how we can judge them and how Guerrero could potentially use this data to pull out of his slump.

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