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The legendary ABCD Camp is back after a 20-year absence. The Academic Betterment and Career Development (ABCD) Camp reestablished July 30th-August 2nd 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona at The PHHacility. The last time the camp was held was in 2006.

The ABCD Camp was founded by Sonny Vaccaro in 1984. Former camp alumni and NBA player Tracy McGrady has taken over as the majority owner, along with partnership with Adidas.

The ABCD Camp is an invite-only camp for the nation’s top high school basketball players. Former camp alumni include Kobe Bryant ‘94-‘95, Tracy McGrady ‘96, Lebron James ‘01, and James Harden ‘05. It’s a tool for development as players, with on-court skill development and competitive games. Plus it’s a great educational and life-skills development resource. The camp provides the athletes with sessions such as Financial literacy and Media 101 workshops, NIL / Branding panel, Education sessions at Exos training facility (mental health/physical health/recovery/biometrics testing), and they also hear from an Adidas athlete panel.

The athletes had the opportunity to compete in front of college coaches and NBA scouts/executives. NBA scouts/executives from all 30 teams were present, along with current NBA assistant coaches.

One prospect that NBA scouts/executives especially had eyes on was 6-foot-7 2029 RJ Evans. Evans is one of the most exciting, young up-and-coming NBA-caliber prospects with exponential potential.

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Although the NBA is forever evolving and chasing after the newest, shiniest toy, the need for high-end guard play is something that has always been prevalent. Seemingly every year in the playoffs, us basketball fans are reminded just how valuable having good guard play is. Even if it’s a tertiary guard playing a handful of spot minutes, just having an extra body who can both handle defensive pressure and get the team into sets is a valuable piece. Of course, it’s just an added plus if said player can provide more as either a scorer or a playmaker – or both if you want to get really greedy. But the insulation itself is enough to warrant guards being drafted high in each and every class. The 2027 draft will likely be no different, as there is no shortage of guys on the path to being drafted. With that said, there is always a name or two who emerges from the dark, presenting themselves as a real NBA prospect despite starting in relative obscurity. In Money Williams’ case, I’m not sure if I can place that “unknown” billing on him as, after all, he was one of the most productive players in the entire country and has already been on a steady, positive developmental trajectory.

It isn’t just Williams the player that’s worth rooting for either, as his story alone is enough to jerk some tears. In Williams’ freshman year of college, he got off to a great start. Williams was averaging 13.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists, locking himself onto the track of potentially being the Freshman of the Year in the Big Sky. However, tragedy struck Williams right as he was hitting his stride, as out of the blue his father tragically passed away, giving Williams no option but to return home and be with his family through the tough times. At just 18 years old, Williams was already put into one of the most difficult decisions of his life, juggling whether he should return to his team or stay home and grieve with his family. Williams ultimately chose to make his return and was stellar doing so until, once again, he had to deal with hardship as a nagging foot injury kept him out for virtually the rest of the year. With that in mind, it was just Williams’ freshman year after all. Although his family lost a part of them that couldn’t be recovered, Williams still had his basketball career ahead of him, which was a blessing in itself. By the time his sophomore year rolled around, Williams was once again ready for action, hoping to take a step closer to his NBA dreams. However, just three weeks before the season was set to kick off, the Williams family was once again struck by tragedy, as his mother – a woman whom he called a queen and the heart and soul of the family – passed away in her sleep. Williams was once again forced to make a critical decision in regard to his family and his own future, this time not being able to go through the process with his mother to help. But Williams did what he always does and remained strong, utilizing the support he got from both his community and his family to will him and his sisters through the incredibly tough times and return to action by the time the season rolled around.

In other words, Williams’ passion and drive are commendable – something that each and every one of us can take a piece from. Knowing the kind of hardship he went through only makes me feel all the better for him and his family, knowing Williams got himself a healthy payday by going to Boston College. But like I hinted at earlier, Williams is far more than just a tragic tale. His ability to both battle through the situations he’s been in and come out stronger on the other side – both as a player and a person – is exactly why I am bought into him as a prospect. With that said, let’s dive into why.

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The modern landscape of the NBA has indoctrinated a clear process as to how it goes about scouting prospects. Players who can blend both high-end athleticism with legit ball skills tend to separate themselves from the general pack, and those who have those gifts on top of analytical prowess are the ones who rise to the top. However, trying to project the development of prospects across years and spot breakout candidates can be a bit more difficult of a task. It would be easy for me to list off all of the typical names when it comes to returning prospects in the 2027 draft — the Tyler Tanner’s, Pat Ngongba’s, Braylon Mullins’ — the guys who have already proven themselves to be NBA-level talents. However, those guys weren’t in last year’s draft for a reason. Each of the guys I mentioned at one point or another considered making the NBA leap, but chose to stay in college because of the feedback they were given.

And although it makes complete sense for a player to go this route — getting feedback from the ultimate decision-makers and improving their games based off of it — I don’t necessarily see a clear path for any of them to boost their stock and leap into lottery discussions. No matter how much Tanner improves as an off-the-dribble shooter and playmaker, he is still going to be a pocket-sized guard who doesn’t have true go-to option juice as a creator. Ngongba could very well become a more consistent threat on both sides of the ball and have a clean bill of health. But he is also going to have to compete with two incoming freshmen with stellar talent looking to do anything in their power to take his job. In Mullins’ case, I question what else he can prove. Even if he does shoot the cover off the ball, prove he can make plays as a second-side creator and give impactful minutes as a defender, he will still be locked into the mold of a 3-and-D player. I am by no means counting any of those three out as prospects or NBA talents and can see a clear path to success for each of them at the next level. They just don’t possess the things I’m looking for when trying to find the 2027 draft’s true breakout star.

Every class has one — a returner who was relatively unknown the season prior and makes the leap into stardom. Finding said player is no easy task, as oftentimes they are just that, an unknown commodity. However, each player of the past that has fit this billing has left clues. Whether it was Johnny Davis, who showed immense flashes as a freshman and earned a chance on the FIBA U19 team, or Cedric Coward, whose steady rise to stardom could be tracked step by step all the way back to his freshman year at DIII Willamette University. Even last year’s draft had guys like Morez Johnson, Aday Mara and Dailyn Swain who had always hinted at the upside they had, but needed a change of scenery to fully extrapolate the value that lay within them. In this upcoming cycle, I expect no different — a guy who has proven what he can do on a smaller stage taking the leap of faith, betting on himself and hoping that his new home can take him to the places he wants to be. No reason in hiding the name anymore, as after all, you clicked on the article. My number one breakout candidate for the 2027 draft class: Florida State’s Kam Taylor.

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This piece marks the third edition of my now-annual “Transferring Down” article, a mainstay in my yearly off-season transfer coverage. I’m excited to write this year’s iteration in particular, as so many legitimate professional prospects decided to move to the mid-major level following disappointing seasons with their former programs. Just for reference, I went back and skimmed over the last two articles (here and here) to see who I’d covered and found that current pro Quadir Copeland was featured alongside eventual high-major transfers such as Rowan Brumbaugh, Isaiah Elohim, and Elijah Crawford. Those players, whose transfer decision paid off, reminds me how viable of a strategy this really is, leaving me hopeful that the players I’m covering today still have a shot at taking a professional leap in the future.

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In what has been widely acclaimed as one of the most storied NBA draft classes in recent memory, there appears to be some consensus as to who will be selected in the top 4 in 2026. Despite an abundance of evidence as to why this should not happen, many seasoned prognosticators are still calling for UNC’s Caleb Wilson to fall to the Bulls at 4.

This article presents why this can’t happen for the Memphis Grizzlies front office. Caleb Wilson is one of the most surefire, “can’t miss” prospects you will find, and passing on him would likely be a fire-able offense.

Physical Profile

Caleb Wilson boasts one of the most tantalizing physical profiles in this draft class due to his prototypical size and elite athleticism. At the NBA Combine, Caleb Wilson certainly passed the eye test, measuring out at 6’9.25 without shoes, with a 7’0.25 wingspan, and a 9’0 standing reach. Additionally, it appears that Caleb will be able to add lean muscle mass to his 210.8lb frame. We should expect this to happen sooner rather than later, given Wilson’s work ethic, coupled with the NBA’s distinguished physical training programs.

At the Combine, Wilson’s decent lane agility and impressive vertical athleticism were on full display. Wilson posted a 34.5’’ standing vertical and a 39.5’’ max vertical, both of which can improve as he fills into his body. While his lane agility of 11.17 seconds was towards the middle of the pack in this draft class, ranking 12^th amongst big men, his tape reveals that Wilson is able to cover a lot of ground quickly.

Not a Finished Product, But My Oh My Was He Efficient

While his injury curtailed what was on track to be a banner freshman season, Caleb Wilson still managed to be one of the most efficient freshmen in the nation and was just hitting his stride in ACC play when he unfortunately broke his right thumb in practice. In his second to last contest this past season, Wilson almost single handedly willed his North Carolina club to a home victory against Duke, in what was one of the more iconic victories in the recent history of this storied rivalry. Caleb relished the head-to-head matchup against Cameron Boozer, agitating him with his length and athleticism, while on the other end, scoring virtually at will against a bevy of Duke defenders. He finished the contest with 23 points on 8-12 shooting, while also connecting on all 6 of his FT attempts. While the statistics underscore his overwhelming impact on the game in one of the biggest stages of the sport, they vastly understate the degree of difficulty on many of his shots, as well as the defensive attention Wilson drew each possession.

In many ways, the Duke contest was a microcosm of Caleb Wilson’s season. In ACC play, Caleb Wilson shot an impressive 61.7% eFG% (according to kenpom.com statistics), which would have been good for the 7^th highest mark in conference [had he finished the season], while his 64.9% TS% would have placed him 5^th. Despite the elevation in competition, Wilson’s efficiency jumped in conference play, indicating that as the season progressed, he was becoming more comfortable. Had he continued on his trajectory, it is likely that Caleb would have eclipsed his current numbers. Reverting to other advanced analytics that encapsulate his box score impact in points per 100 possessions (above average player) while on the floor, Wilson’s age adjusted OBPM+ ranks 9^th in this class, approximating just how valuable he was for UNC (according to draftballr’s statistical database).

Offensive Tendencies and Areas of Growth

In terms of his tendencies, Caleb Wilson immediately enters the league as one of the most dynamic face up big men in recent memory. His fluid handle, quick feet, and dynamic spin moves enable him to get in the lane and wreak havoc. Despite his developing frame, Wilson is already able to finish through contact at the basket and is capable of functioning as a primary ball handler in transition or attacking from the 3pt line in in halfcourt sets. Importantly, while he did not operate in pick & roll as often as he will at the next level, Wilson was formidable as a role man, scoring on 71.4% of his P&R attempts.

While he will need to diversify his handle at the next level against better defenders and tighten it in transition, Wilson posted a 12.6% TORate according to kenpom.com (which would have placed him in the top third of the ACC), despite usage on 26.4% of his team’s shots when he was in the game. The tape suggests that he was relatively secure with the ball, despite most teams frequently sending double teams at him. In fact, he evinced incredible play strength finishing through contact, which is an area that will immediately translate at the next level. Wilson is extremely dynamic when he gets in the lane and possesses rare footwork, elite body control, and serious hangtime. His 1.36 points per shot at the rim (pps) fall in the 87^th percentile of the nation. Significantly, despite being an elite athlete, Wilson plays off of two feet, employing a bevy of shot fakes and misdirection moves. These tendencies rendered him virtually unguardable by bigs at the collegiate level, and this trend should continue in the NBA. In fact, the freshman drew a staggering 6.8 fouls per 40 minutes, which was the 25^th best marker nationally.

Importantly, if he clears any space at all, Wilson is able to readjust mid air and opt for fadeaway jumpers, which he shoots right over the top of his man. His faceup midrange jump shots accounted for 16.3% of his shot attempts this past season according to our proprietary datasets. While he connected on an enormous number of difficult contested turnarounds this past season, Wilson could stand to work on his feet positioning and balance, as his weight shifting tends to throw off his shots at times, as he is not always square to the basket. A focus on contact balance in his offseason regiment would enable him to improve on his 45.8% shooting on faceup shots, turnaround jumpers, and fadeaways.

When he attacks the basket, Wilson leaves little margin for error, dunking almost everything that he can, with dunks accounting for 43.2% of his shot attempts at the rim [and 24.4% of his overall field goal attempts via our proprietary datasets]. In fact, according to Synergy Sports statistics, this placed Caleb in the 96^th percentile of all college players. In terms of his in-between game, Wilson possesses an effective running one hander, which he often employs out of his spin moves. With nimble feet and sound body control, Wilson is able to maintain his balance and concentration amongst a crowd of defenders. According to our proprietary datasets, Caleb was versatile when driving to the basket, attacking with his dominant hand just 55.5% of the time. His versatility driving either direction, coupled with his crafty array of spin moves, drop steps, and up and under moves, render him virtually unguardable when he decides to get downhill. Importantly, though, Caleb does need to work on finishing with his left hand. When he operated off the left block (especially in conference play), he would often attack with his left before switching hands and finishing with his right. He only finished with his left on 7% of his attempts when driving this side of the basket. Defenses took advantage of this, and he was blocked twice as often driving left as he was with his dominant hand.

Additionally, the talented freshman would be wise to extend the range on his one handed floater (ala Trey Kaufman-Renn) to the medium range, as he currently opts for a two handed push shot, which is largely ineffective. Given his impressive ability to withstand contact, an effective one handed floater would prevent NBA defenders from sagging to the basket when he attacks in a straight line off the bounce. Keeping defenses honest is imperative, as this wrinkle – once mastered – would take Wilson’s game to another level. Moreover, while Wilson is not a traditional back down post threat, improving on his seldom used baby half hook would be an effective move to add once as he develops his lower body strength at the next level.

In terms of his shooting, Caleb must spend time developing his mid range jump shot and extend his range past the NBA three point line if he hopes to reach his enormous potential. As it currently stands, Wilson connected on about 38.9% of his dribble pullup midrange jumpers and a paltry 25.9% of his 3pt attempts, with a meager 1.1 attempts per game. Wilson will have to work on his balance, as well as the consistency of his mechanics, if he hopes to improve on these figures at the next level. While this is his only glaring weakness at the moment, a consistent jump shot would open up driving lanes and bolster every other facet of his game. Overall, Caleb Wilson is one of the most intriguing offensive weapons in this draft class due to his rare athleticism, impressive faceup game, and versatility as a P&R threat.

Rebounding

On the glass, Caleb Wilson possesses the requisite athleticism and physical tools to create additional offensive opportunities for his team, and the wherewithal to secure defensive rebounds and immediately push the ball down court for easy transition baskets. Caleb has one of the quickest second jumps in the nation, and he frequently rebounded his own misses, almost putback dunking some of his own attempts. If the ball is anywhere in his vicinity, Wilson’s relentless pursuit of the basketball is something to behold. He frequently utilizes his length and quick leaping ability to tap the ball to himself, and creates extra possessions for his team on offense. Wilson was even able to rebound off of his own free throw misses on occasion. With all this said, Wilson still needs to continue to develop physically, as this will enable him to better carve out space against bigs at the next level. His 10.5% offensive rebounding % was certainly respectable, but this facet of his game should improve markedly along with his physical maturation. Wilson’s prowess on the defensive glass is even more important for his potential suitor at the next level, as he tended to turn these rebounds into transition opportunities on the other end. Wilson’s 22.3% defensive rebounding % mark fell within the top 80 in the nation, despite playing alongside fellow big Henri Veesaar. After securing loose rebounds, Wilson plays fast with the ball in his hands and is able to lead a fast break, applying pressure on opposing defenses, leading to easy baskets.

A World of Defensive Potential

While Caleb Wilson has a ton of room to grow regarding his positional defense, Wilson’s physical tools and quick reaction timing portend a very positive trajectory at the next level. As one of the most intriguing defensive prospects in a historically good draft class, Wilson sported a 20^th best adjusted DBPM+ for his draft class. This baseline is rather remarkable, in lieu of the countless areas Wilson still has to improve on to realize his vast potential at the next level.

Importantly, Wilson projects as a versatile weapon who can switch 1-5, catering to the NBA’s ‘switch everything’ policies and ‘positionless basketball’. He possesses the requisite lateral footspeed to mix it up on the perimeter with guards (something he regularly did at North Carolina), and the length and toughness to contest big men in the paint. His initial quick leaping ability and extraordinary second jump enable him to close out on perimeter shooters at a moment’s notice, and this trend should continue at the next level. When he is thrown a shot fake, Wilson can recovery quickly due to his remarkable second jump and decent IQ. Quantifying his impact, Wilson’s 0.75 Points Per Shot (PPS) on contested jump shots fell in the 80% of the nation according to Synergy statistics. As a help defender, Wilson possesses some of the best recovery reactions, and thus is always a threat to chase down block his opponents.

In terms of his productivity, Wilson displays extremely quick hands, which he uses to steal it and push the ball for easy transition layups. His 2.8% steals% and 4.4% blocks% were both very positive and placed him in the top 20 of the ACC. On the perimeter, Wilson regularly poked the ball away from opponents, tallying countless deflections, and causing opponents to think before driving in his direction. Wilson also was savvy in the passing lanes, regularly anticipating passes, and using these steals to cue fast breaks. In terms of his shot blocking, Wilson proved to be a savant at chasing down opponents and blocking them from behind. Significantly, a large percentage of his blocks came on three point attempts, as he had a particular knack for disrupting opponents attempting to shoot over the top of him.

With that said, this calls to attention some of Wilson’s potential areas for improvement. While he proved to be formidable blocking and disrupting three point shooters in his vicinity, Wilson was often out of position and forced to cover a tremendous amount of ground closing out on jump shooters. According to Synergy statistics, 39.2% of the catch and shoot jumpers Wilson was responsible for defending were ‘unguarded’, indicating simply that he was late to the closeout. This is likely due to the fact that he was still adjusting to the collegiate level (he did not even have a full season under his belt) and was overly reliant on his world class athleticism. Wilson tends to overhelp, swarming and stabbing at the ball, which led to several wide open perimeter jumpers. Importantly, this tendency is very fixable and should improve over time.

Additionally, while he is dynamic switching and picking up guards when defending P&R, Wilson struggles and often gets caught up on screens. They often disrupted his balance and caused him to take a longer path to recover to the ball. This was one of the main ways defenders freed themselves up for open shots against Wilson. In order to combat these issues, Caleb must work on improving his contact balance through strength training to better resist physical contact, as well as focusing on improving his spatial awareness, so that he can better anticipate screens and get around them. Further, improving his balance and over-helping tendencies will also enable Wilson to not over-commit closing out, as he tended to crowd jump shooter’s space and pick up unnecessary fouls.

In terms of his one on one defense, while he is highly capable moving his feet, Wilson often presents with an open stance and avoids contact at the point of attack. On the positive side of this, Wilson committed just 1.9 fouls per 40 minutes, the 11^th best marker in the ACC. While he did a nice job moving his feet, Wilson could have been more physical with his man and steered him towards the sideline or baseline. In fact, Wilson gave guards too much driving room to create off the bounce, and this led to him being beat by experienced guards like Boopie Miller. While it will take him some time to adjust to the increased speed of the game, Wilson should makes strides following his jump to the NBA next year. Importantly, when he did assert himself and apply pressure or cut off driving lanes, Wilson was extremely disruptive.

Finally, while he is a highly capable shot blocker, Wilson does not yet excel as a rim protector due to his developing lower body strength – indicating that he should not anchor a defense until he can improve his contact balance. He must do a better job of anticipating the offensive player’s next move and stepping in to draw charges. This too will come with more experience. While he did fight and possess good play strength for his size defending the post a year ago, more experienced players were able to assert their will on the block with a good seal. With that said, Wilson does a nice job of playing passing lanes on post entry feeds, but needs to learn when not to gamble on these attempts.

All in all, Caleb Wilson is a remarkable defensive talent, with the foot speed of a wing and the athleticism to defend multiple positions. With the appropriate seasoning, he should excel at the next level.

Developing Floor Game

In terms of his greatest area of growth at the next level, look for Caleb Wilson to continue to improve as a passer. While he often struggled to make the right decisions when on the move, Wilson was dynamic finding teammates out of the post, as evinced by his 1.15 PPS out of the post (including passes), which ranked in the 88% of the nation. While he already posted the third best Assist Rate amongst forwards in the ACC, his passing and decision making improved markedly in conference play against stiffer competition. His 1.35 Assist-to-Turnover ratio underscored this ability to adequately make decisions and find open teammates, while playing strong with the basketball. Due to the notable threat of his versatile faceup post game, Wilson was easily able to find cutters and look cross court to open perimeter shooters. He often drew double teams, leading to easy opportunities for his teammates. Additionally, as a functional ball handler in transition, Wilson should continue to make strides finding his teammates on the break. Given Caleb’s unselfish tendencies and his willingness to move the ball around the perimeter, it is clear that Wilson can develop into the cornerstone of a contender one day.

Why the Grizzlies Would Be Foolish to Pass on Him

Caleb Wilson has arguably the highest upside in the 2026 draft class, due to his world class athleticism, and remarkable room for improvement along the perimeter. Wilson’s floor game, unselfish tendencies, and tenacity going after the ball should enable him to thrive in a game with better spacing and more skilled teammates. While the Grizzlies are potentially in a transitionary period, with Ja Morant’s future looming as a huge question mark, they should draft a player that adequately represents the ‘grit and grind’ culture of Memphis. If they have Ja Morant at the helm, a Wilson-Morant tandem would immediately cement them as one of the fastest and most exciting pace offenses in the NBA. Even if the Grizzlies find a potential suitor and move on from Morant in the offseason (a decision I would not advise), the Grizzlies should still lean into their Grit and Grind lore and draft the player who has an edge on the court. Overall, Wilson presents the highest upside case of any player in this draft class, and his rapidly developing floor game is something that the Grizzlies need in order to get back into contention.

Throughout the season, when eyes were directed at North Carolina, it was because of highly touted freshman Caleb Wilson. However, after Wilson’s season came to an early end due to injury, that attention pivoted in the direction of junior big man Henri Veesaar. Not only that, but the Estonian center immediately became the Tar Heels’ primary option once Wilson went down, allowing him to showcase the advanced skillset that many evaluators were already aware of. Now, he’ll likely hear his name called in the first-round of the upcoming NBA Draft, and while he may be the most offensively gifted center in his draft class, he has work to do before he’ll be able to consistently compete against the best players in the world. In this article, I aim to break down every aspect of his game, including where he needs to improve if he wants to reach his professional ceiling.

Player Profile:

Henri Veesaar is a 7’0” and 225lb center from Tallin, Estonia who began his basketball career with the Real Madrid youth program in Spain, where he had a productive tenure. He also represented Estonia in FIBA’s U18 European Challenger in 2021, where he posted averages of 16.2 points per game, 11.6 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks. He then appeared with Estonia’s senior national team in 2021, making him the youngest player in the country’s history to play in a FIBA qualifying event. He then decided to take his talents stateside, enrolling at the University of Arizona as a four-star recruit in the class of 2022.

He was a role player during his true freshman season, appearing in 29 games but playing only 7.1 minutes per contest. He would then redshirt for his true sophomore season. Veesaar burst onto the scene as a redshirt sophomore, as he cemented himself as one of the better backup centers in the country and a real NBA prospect. In that season he averaged 9.4 points per game, 5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 blocks, and .7 steals on shooting splits of 59.2% from the field, 32.7% from beyond the arc, and 68.6% from the free-throw line. These numbers, in addition to an impending battle for Arizona’s starting center spot with Motiejus Krivas, led Veesaar to test his worth on the transfer market.

He would eventually commit to the North Carolina Tar Heels and head coach Hubert Davis, joining five-star recruit Caleb Wilson and a pre-existing core for his redshirt junior season. It was clear early on that Veesaar had made significant developmental strides, as he dominated against Kansas and defensive specialist Flory Bidunga in the second game of the season. On the year, he averaged 17 points per game, 8.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 blocks, and .6 steals on splits of 60.8% from the field, 42.6% from the three-point line, and 61.5% from the charity stripe. Obviously, these numbers left him confident in his professional future, leading him to enter the draft and forego his final year of college eligibility.

Interior Scoring:

Veesaar’s offensive game has always gravitated around his interior scoring, but he was especially effective from close-range this season. He shot 75.3% on his at-the-rim attempts on solid volume (9.6 attempts per 100 possessions). What made his development from this scoring level interesting was his emergence as a self-creator after exclusively operating as a play finisher throughout his first two seasons. That’s not to say he got any worse as an off-ball threat; that’s still how he did most of his damage, just that his game is vastly more versatile today than it was during his Arizona tenure.

He did most of his interior creation with his back to the basket, using his strength, footwork, and long arms to cause havoc for interior defenders. Despite dealing with some strength and weight concerns as a defender (we’ll cover that later), he actually plays bigger than he is on the offensive end. That said, he can occasionally struggle to back down significantly heavier defenders. He’s excellent at absorbing and finishing through contact, drawing quite a few and-one free-throws this season. He plays with an aggression from this level that I didn’t see from many collegiate centers this past season, a mental trait that I think will support both his immediate impact and long-term development. I’d argue that his biggest weakness as an interior self-creator is his tendency to drop the ball below his waist, where it’s in range to be stolen by help defenders.

Veesaar is a very active screener and all-around off-ball mover, giving him a very strong play finishing foundation. Not only that, but he also gets off the ground incredibly quick for a big man, although he doesn’t have ton of vertical athleticism. His 9’3” reach makes up for some of his leaping concerns, allowing him to be a very proficient lob finisher. As previously mentioned, he doesn’t let contact greatly affect his finishing, and he proved to be a solid under- and around-the-rim finisher throughout the season. The only reoccurring issue I saw from him in this department was his questionable hands, as he bobbled a ton of passes (this is also an issue he faces as a rebounder). Hopefully he’s just taking his eyes off the ball, and this isn’t a coordination issue, but I can’t say for sure.

Mid-Range Scoring:

After two seasons in which mid-range scoring didn’t play a huge part in his overall offensive arsenal, Veesaar emerged as one of the best mid-range scorers in the country. On a mixed bag of traditional jumpers, push shots, floaters, and hook shots, he knocked down 53.5% of his attempts from this level. He also doubled his volume from the year before, attempting 5.1 mid-range shots per 100 possessions. This is an area where I expect him to continue improving throughout the early part of his professional career, development that would further cement him as the premier scoring center among his contemporaries.

He has fantastic feel on his push shots and floaters, a shot that majorly supported his all-around offensive game throughout his junior season. This shot further diversified his already impressive pick-and-roll game, allowing him to avoid putting the ball on the floor in search of at-the-rim opportunities, something that often led to turnovers for Veesaar with both Arizona and North Carolina. He has good range on these shots, often attempting them from just past the charity stripe. Finally, he’s able to find these opportunities both on- and off-the-ball, although he’s definitely more competent on non-dribble attempts.

Veesaar also developed a hook shot this season, a shot he was able to incorporate into both his post-up and dribble-drive game. He’s incredibly comfortable with his back to the basket, and his aforementioned footwork, wingspan, and feel further bolstered his ability to knock down these attempts at an advanced rate. Considering this isn’t a shot that many modern NBA centers greatly rely on, I’m not entirely sure that whatever organization he finds himself suiting up for will be overly interested in further developing it, but if he does continue to improve his hook shot, he’ll have a virtually unblockable move at his disposal which he can use in a myriad of scenarios.

Very few of Veesaar’s mid-range attempts were traditional jump shots, a category that includes pull-up, turnaround, and fade-away jumpers. He really only turned to these shots when he had to, whether that be at the end of the shot clock or after he’s already exhausted his options on post-ups. That said, I thought his mechanics looked solid on these looks, an opinion further supported by his stellar outside shooting, a development he made between his sophomore and junior seasons. In fact, because of the success he found from beyond the arc, I’m surprised he didn’t attempt more mid-range jump shots. His dabbling in this department is what leads me to believe he still has a ton of room to grow, developments that could result in his emergence as one of the better all-around scoring centers in the league.

Outside Shooting:

I wouldn’t blame you if you thought that Veesaar’s growth as an outside shooter was merely a fluke, as he was rather bad from long-range throughout his two seasons with Arizona. However, nothing about his film suggests that he’s not a real three-point shooter, with the only statistical indicator pointing toward fluke-like production being his poor free-throw shooting. He attempted 3 threes per game this season (5.6 attempts per 100 possessions) and converted 42.6% of those attempts. Based on what we saw this season alone, I’m convinced that he’s a real long-range marksman, even if he does drop below the 40% mark once he reaches the league.

His three-point attempts came exclusively off-the-catch, something that doesn’t bother me considering he’s not much of a ball handler. That said, he doesn’t only attempt standstill catch-and-shoot threes, as he’s comfortable stepping into his shot or even moving around the court in search of open looks. His mechanics, while on the slower side, are consistent and smooth, although he does drop the ball rather low to get his shot motion started. He creates his own rhythm, and while I doubt he’ll ever become a true movement or off-the-dribble shooter, he’ll probably be a better off-ball shooting option than most professional 7-footers.

Passing & Playmaking:

The Carolina coaching staff allowed Veesaar to flex his passing instincts this season, and while that didn’t always have positive outcomes, he was able to prove himself capable of doing more than just tertiary ball movement. He maintained a positive assist-to-turnover ratio throughout the season and found passing success in a myriad of ways. During his second season with Arizona, he showed some flashes of being a burgeoning quick decision maker, but I was surprised to see just how good he looked (at times) as a half court passer throughout his junior campaign.

Despite only being the team’s second-best offensive player, his gravity in certain situations was immense, allowing him to collapse opposing defenses before finding teammates for easy offense. He found the most success out of the pick-and-roll, where he was often met by multiple defenders once receiving a pass. Here, he proved to be an incredibly unselfish player, as the ball quickly popped off his hands once he saw increased defensive pressure. It definitely helped that he was usually flanked by a cutting Caleb Wilson, who is virtually unstoppable against weakened interior defenses, but it’s likely that Veesaar will play alongside similarly athletic teammates once he reaches the league.

Unlike most frontcourt players, Veesaar is actually better at finding teammates near the hoop than he is kicking the ball out to shooters. He really only throws kickout passes when he has given up on his own scoring opportunity, often leaving his feet to do so. This is my biggest issue with his passing; he leaves his feet way too often, consistently resulting in turnovers. He needs to improve his decision-making in these scenarios. That said, his ability to throw cross-court passes with one hand and his willingness to even attempt mid-air passes (something you rarely see from frontcourt players) tells me that he still has quite a bit of development ahead of him as a passer, something that I think has flown too far under the radar when people discuss his long-term outlook.

Defense & Rebounding:

Many evaluators sell Veesaar as a two-way prospect with equal value on both ends, and while he is a solid defender who makes a substantial impact on this side of the floor, I think most of his value comes on the offensive end. In fact, this was his least impactful defensive season since he enrolled in college, mostly because he was able to dedicate more of his efforts to the offensive end. That said, he’s an incredibly competitive player who doesn’t simply take breaks on defense, and he has always been a very good collegiate rim protector. There are a few glaring weaknesses which limit his defensive ceiling, but I imagine he’ll maintain a positive defensive reputation.

Veesaar is an interesting rim protector for a few reasons. As a primary rim protector, he makes up for his lack of vertical leaping by having the best verticality in this class (by that I mean, his contests are almost always vertical, and he doesn’t commit many fouls on traditional contests). He’s also a mobile big man, likely because he’s on the thinner side, which allows him to keep up with smaller players inside (this isn’t true for his perimeter defense). Finally, he found quite a bit of success as a secondary rim protector this season, as North Carolina had a talented frontcourt rotation that split some of the primary rim protection duties from time to time. Because of these traits, he projects to have a rather versatile interior defensive skillset at the next level.

As far as steals, deflections, and overall defensive playmaking is concerned, he definitely has work to do before matching up against professional opponents. He’s not much of a risk taker in this department, especially as a primary defender, usually generating his steals by poking balls loose as players attempt to drive past him. He’s not very switchable, as his lack of smooth lateral movement leads him to struggle against quicker defenders. That said, his north-south movement is solid. He gets blown by on closeouts, and he’s not much of a recovery defender. All in all, he needs to work on his agility and balance moving forward, and he likely won’t be able to add much weight or muscle to his frame until he improves in those areas.

As I mentioned, Veesaar shared the floor with a very talented frontcourt crop this season, a group which was headlined by soon-to-be top five pick Caleb Wilson (an excellent rebounder himself). Because of this, his rebounding flew under the radar. He’s a very talented two-way rebounder, and he’s one of the better putback scorers in this class. For a guy who isn’t overly gifted as a vertical athlete, his second jump is very quick. This allows him to come down with offensive rebounds and go back up before defenders can offer a strong contest. He also plays bigger than he is in these situations and seems to have better ball security here than he does on traditional scoring opportunities.

Other traits that make Veesaar one of the better rebounding prospects in this class are his timing and ability to fight around boxouts. He had a lot of putback dunks this season, but I expect tip-ins to be more common for him as he finds himself matched up against more athletic opponents. This shouldn’t be an issue, as his timing is excellent on tip-ins. Secondly, his swim moves around boxouts are top-notch, a skill that is rarely discussed when evaluating frontcourt prospects. This makes up for some of his size, strength, and athleticism concerns. All in all, while he may not be an all-league rebounder in the NBA, I expect him to continue making a difference on the glass.

Summary:

Before I summarize Veesaar’s game, I want to list any and all of his weaknesses and flaws in order to garner a better understanding of his game in its entirety. It’s important to note that all players have weaknesses, and what makes the great players great is their ability to improve upon their weaknesses instead of treating them as areas void of potential. As far as Veesaar is concerned, he’s far less flawed than most center prospects, giving him one of the higher floors among frontcourt players in this class.

• His worst habit as a scorer is his tendency to drop the ball below his waist, where defenders can easily poke or slap it loose. This is where most of his non-passing turnovers come from.

• He struggles against heavier and stronger interior defenders, as he isn’t able to impose his will on post-ups. His footwork is also not as effective against these defenders, as they’re more difficult to navigate around.

• His hands aren’t the greatest, as he consistently bobbled passes and rebounds throughout the season. If this is a coordination issue, it could stifle his development in other areas.

• His handle leaves much to be desired, especially since he seems to be interested in driving from the perimeter and playmaking for others. If he wants to be more than an interior play finisher, he’ll need to develop his handle.

• He was incredibly efficient on mid-range attempts this year; his volume from this level didn’t reflect that. He needs to increase his mid-range volume in the future.

• He loves using shot fakes from the perimeter, but they very rarely work. They’re simply not convincing, and any defender with any semblance of discipline will not fall for them. A better shot fake would support his game from all three levels.

• He can look flustered as a three-point shooter when defenders offer a strong contest, suggesting that he isn’t the pure sharpshooter that he seemed to be throughout this season.

• He has always been a bad free-throw shooter, which doesn’t bode well for his outside shooting projection. That said, because his mechanics look fine from the charity stripe; I assume this is mostly mental.

• His passing has a ton of room to grow, as he needs to become more disciplined in this department. He leaves his feet on many of his passes, which often results in turnovers. He’s also very easy to read, making his out-of-control passing tendencies even more dangerous.

• As a rim protector, he’s a bit limited by his lack of impressive vertical leaping. I actually think he gets much more lift on the offensive end than he does on defense. His discipline and timing could also use some work, as while he always stays vertical, he often leaves his feet too early or too late.

• He’s not much of a defensive playmaker or turnover generator, and he’s not overly switchable. He’s not as mobile on the perimeter as you’d expect him to be, and he’s not equipped to match up against smaller players.

• His size and strength concerns can hinder him as a rebounder, but he’s found ways to make up for some of these issues. That said, if he can add weight while maintaining his athleticism, he’d become a much better two-way rebounder.

To summarize Henri Veesaar’s game, I first want to reiterate that I think he’s a far superior offensive prospect than he is a defensive one. His three-level scoring is not matched by any of the centers in this class, and if his defense was to the level that some evaluators think it is, he’d be a lottery pick. I also think there’s room for skepticism regarding his outside shooting, mid-range translation, and passing ceiling. If these parts of his game falter, and he settles exclusively for pick-and-roll play finishing and subpar three-point shooting, I don’t think he’ll be anything special in the league. That said, I don’t think he’ll ever be bad enough on either end to fall out of the league entirely. With the understanding that his floor is lofty, you can then view his ceiling as something worth betting on. At his best, he’s a three-level scorer and three-point sharpshooter who offers a positive impact on the defensive end and on the glass. If he improves as a passer and mid-range scorer, he’d possess everything he needs to be one of the better offensive centers in the league (besides a handle, which I don’t foresee him developing). When you have a player who seems guaranteed to carve out a long NBA career no matter how he develops, a ceiling as intriguing as Veesaar’s becomes worth considering when selecting in the middle of the first round (or even higher).

Few players in college basketball possess the pure scoring upside and perimeter shooting gravity of Duke wing Isaiah Evans. A former five star recruit and one of the premier shooters in his recruiting class, Evans enters the 2026 NBA Draft conversation as one of the most dangerous off ball scorers in the country. Standing nearly 6 foot 7 with deep shooting range, fluid athleticism, and a rapidly developing all around offensive game, Evans fits one of the most valuable archetypes in today’s NBA: the floor spacing wing capable of changing defensive coverages simply through his presence.

While Evans initially built his reputation as an elite perimeter shooter, his offensive game has steadily evolved beyond that label. Over the past two seasons, he has shown significant growth attacking closeouts, creating off one and two dribbles, and leveraging defensive attention into secondary playmaking opportunities. His combination of shooting versatility and positional size creates a unique offensive profile that becomes increasingly valuable in spacing centric NBA environments.

The long-term evaluation of Evans centers around how much of his game develops beyond scoring. The shooting will undoubtedly translate. The questions NBA teams will continue to evaluate involve his defensive consistency, physical development, and ability to create offense against high level athletes. Regardless, few prospects in the class possess a clearer NBA skill than Evans’ ability to shoot the basketball.

Player Bio

• Height - 6’7”

• Weight - 190 lbs

• Wingspan - 6’9”

• Draft Age - 20

• Position - Guard

• Nationality - American

The Profile

• Elite Shooting Gravity: Evans possesses legitimate NBA level shooting gravity. Defenses are forced to account for him the moment he crosses half court, creating spacing advantages for teammates and forcing rotations that alter offensive possessions.

• Natural Scoring Instincts: One of the more gifted scorers in college basketball. Understands how to find openings, relocate off the ball, and exploit defensive lapses. Consistently puts himself in positions to score without requiring excessive dribbles.

• Fluid Athleticism: Smooth athlete with excellent body control and coordination. Runs the floor well, elevates comfortably in traffic, and has the movement skills necessary to function as a modern wing.

• Offensive Adaptability: Can thrive as a movement shooter, transition scorer, weak side attacker, or secondary offensive option. His ability to impact possessions without dominating the ball increases lineup flexibility.

• Confidence & Shot Making: Elite scorers often possess short memories and unwavering confidence. Evans embodies both traits. He remains aggressive regardless of previous results and is comfortable taking difficult shots in high pressure situations.

• Role at the NBA Level: One of the easiest offensive projections in the class. Every NBA team needs floor spacing and perimeter shot making. Evans' game naturally complements high-usage stars while still offering room for offensive expansion.

Key Takeaways: Evans projects as one of the premier shooting prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft cycle. In a league increasingly driven by spacing, movement shooting, and offensive efficiency, players with his combination of size and perimeter touch are extremely valuable. His shooting alone provides a pathway to meaningful NBA minutes early in his career.

What makes Evans particularly intriguing, however, is that his ceiling extends beyond being a specialist. As his handle, decision making, and off the dribble scoring continue to improve, he is beginning to show flashes of a more complete offensive player. Those developments significantly increase his long-term upside because they create additional ways for him to impact winning.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of his profile is how naturally his game fits modern NBA roster construction. Whether playing alongside a ball dominant superstar or within a motion heavy offensive system, Evans projects as a player capable of enhancing spacing, creating offensive flow, and generating efficient scoring opportunities.

Offense & Defense

• On the Move: Arguably the defining trait of his game. Evans is elite running off screens, relocating on the perimeter, and creating shooting windows through constant movement. His footwork and balance are advanced for a player his age.

• Catch and Shoot Excellence: One of the best catch and shoot weapons in college basketball. Quick release, deep range, and consistent mechanics allow him to punish defensive mistakes immediately.

• Shot Making Ability: Comfortable shooting off movement, spot ups, handoffs, and pull ups. Can score from a variety of offensive actions without requiring isolation opportunities.

• Attacking the Closeout: Continues to show growth attacking aggressive closeouts. Uses long strides and fluid athleticism to get downhill and finish when defenders overcommit to taking away the jumper.

• Scoring In Transition: Dangerous weapon in the open floor. Fills lanes effectively and consistently converts transition opportunities.

• Defensive Tools: Possesses adequate size and athleticism for the wing position. Has the physical profile necessary to become a functional multi positional defender.

• Team Defense: Shows flashes of strong rotational awareness and help side instincts. Length allows him to contest shots and disrupt passing lanes when engaged.

Key Takeaways: Evans’ offensive value starts with his shooting, but it does not end there. His ability to create gravity without the basketball is one of the most translatable skills in the sport. Defenses are forced to track him constantly, opening opportunities for both himself and his teammates.

The continued development of his secondary offensive skills is what could ultimately elevate him into a significantly higher tier of prospect. If he becomes a reliable attacker off closeouts and a capable secondary creator, defenders will face impossible decisions regarding how aggressively they can guard his jumper.

Defensively, the tools are present for meaningful improvement. While he may never become a defensive specialist, his length, athleticism, and effort flashes suggest there is room for growth. Combined with his offensive profile, that creates considerable long term value.

Areas for Growth

• Strength & Physical Development: Adding muscle remains one of the most important developmental priorities. Increased strength would improve finishing, defensive versatility, and overall durability.

• On Ball Creation: While the handle has improved, Evans is still more comfortable attacking advantages than creating them. Developing more advanced self creation skills would significantly expand his offensive ceiling.

• Playmaking Vision: Primarily viewed as a scorer at this stage. Continued growth as a passer and secondary creator would make him significantly more difficult to defend.

• Defensive Consistency: There are stretches where engagement fluctuates. Improving possession to possession focus and physicality will be important as he faces stronger competition.

• Absorbing Contact: Currently relies heavily on touch and finesse around the basket. Additional strength should improve his ability to absorb contact and convert difficult finishes.

Key Takeaways: The encouraging aspect of Evans’ developmental profile is that his elite NBA skill, shooting, is already firmly established. Most prospects enter the draft process attempting to prove they possess at least one truly translatable skill. Evans has already done that.

The next stage of development revolves around expanding the rest of his game. Improvements in strength, defensive consistency, and creation ability could dramatically alter how teams evaluate his long term ceiling. The difference between becoming an elite role player and a high level offensive starter often lies in those secondary skills.

Given his age, work ethic, and offensive talent, there is reason for optimism. If even moderate progress occurs in these areas, Evans’ value could rise significantly because the foundation is already among the strongest in the class.

NBA Projection & Player Comparison (Style)

Isaiah Evans projects as a high-level floor-spacing wing whose shooting gravity immediately translates to the NBA. Every organization searches for players capable of stretching defenses, creating spacing for stars, and generating efficient offense without requiring high usage. Evans fits that mold exceptionally well.

His ideal NBA role likely begins as a movement shooter and secondary scoring option capable of punishing defensive attention directed elsewhere. As his game matures, there is potential for significantly more offensive responsibility. Wings who can shoot, move, and create efficiently are among the league’s most valuable assets.

What makes Evans particularly attractive is his ability to fit within virtually any offensive ecosystem. Whether paired with a primary initiator, utilized in motion heavy actions, or deployed as a floor spacer around star creators, his skill set naturally enhances team offense.

Evans shares similarities with Michael Porter Jr. and Cam Johnson. Like Porter Jr., he possesses elite shot making ability, positional size, and natural scoring instincts. Like Johnson, he creates significant value through movement shooting, floor spacing, and offensive efficiency. If his self creation continues to develop, there are flashes of a taller Tyler Herro type offensive impact as well.

Final Evaluation

Isaiah Evans enters the 2026 NBA Draft conversation as one of the most dangerous perimeter shooters in college basketball. His combination of size, shooting versatility, and offensive scalability creates one of the clearest NBA projections in the class.

The foundation of his game aligns perfectly with modern NBA priorities. Floor spacing, movement shooting, and offensive efficiency continue to drive roster construction, and Evans checks each of those boxes at a high level. His ability to impact winning without dominating possessions only enhances his value.

While improvements as a defender, creator, and playmaker remain important developmental checkpoints, those areas feel more like opportunities for growth than major concerns. The elite shooting foundation provides both a high floor and a clear path toward long term NBA success.

In a league constantly searching for wings who can stretch defenses and fit alongside stars, Isaiah Evans projects as the type of player organizations will be eager to invest in. If the secondary skills continue progressing, his ceiling extends far beyond that of a traditional shooting specialist.

Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr. enters college basketball as one of the most polished lead guard prospects in the country. A McDonald’s All-American and consensus five-star recruit, Brown has built a reputation as one of the premier playmakers in his class, combining advanced basketball IQ, shot-making versatility, and elite decision-making into a package that projects seamlessly to the modern NBA. While many young guards rely heavily on athleticism or scoring volume, Brown’s game is defined by pace, precision, and an innate understanding of how to control offensive possessions.

What immediately stands out when evaluating Brown is how advanced his feel for the game is relative to his age. He consistently plays under control, rarely looks sped up, and demonstrates a mature understanding of timing and spacing. Whether operating in pick-and-roll, attacking closeouts, or creating for teammates in transition, Brown routinely makes high-level reads that keep offenses functioning efficiently. His ability to balance scoring aggression with playmaking instincts separates him from many young guards who lean heavily toward one skill set or the other.

The modern NBA continues to place enormous value on guards capable of creating efficient offense while limiting mistakes, and Brown embodies many of those qualities. While questions remain regarding his physical profile and defensive scalability against NBA athletes, his combination of skill, feel, and offensive versatility gives him one of the higher floors among perimeter prospects in the 2026 draft cycle.

Player Bio

• Height - 6’3”

• Weight - 175 lbs

• Wingspan - 6’5”

• Draft Age - 19

• Position - Guard

• Nationality - American

The Profile

• Basketball IQ: Arguably Brown's defining trait. Processes the game at an elite level and consistently identifies the correct read before defenses fully develop. Rarely forces offense and demonstrates advanced situational awareness.

• Control & Pace: One of the best pace manipulators in the freshman class. Brown understands how to change speeds, keep defenders off balance, and create advantages without relying exclusively on burst or athleticism.

• Playmaking: Natural lead guard instincts. Sees passing windows early, anticipates defensive rotations, and consistently puts teammates in advantageous positions.

• Shooting Touch: Highly skilled shooter both on and off the ball. Comfortable pulling up off ball screens, relocating off movement, or spacing the floor as a catch-and-shoot threat.

• Competitiveness: Plays with confidence and leadership qualities that coaches gravitate toward. Has consistently been the primary organizer and decision-maker on highly successful teams throughout his development.

Key Takeaways: Brown projects as one of the safest guard prospects in the 2026 class because of the translatable nature of his skill set. NBA teams consistently search for guards who elevate offensive efficiency without dominating possessions, and Brown’s game is built around exactly those principles. His ability to score, facilitate, and make quick decisions creates value regardless of role or usage.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Brown’s profile is how advanced his offensive decision-making already appears. Many young guards struggle to balance scoring and playmaking responsibilities, but Brown has consistently demonstrated a strong understanding of when to attack and when to facilitate. That balance should ease his transition to higher levels of competition.

Additionally, Brown’s game projects favorably to playoff basketball. Defenses become increasingly sophisticated in postseason environments, placing greater emphasis on processing speed and decision making. His ability to consistently make the correct read, avoid turnovers, and create quality looks for teammates gives him a skill set that should age well and translate across different roster constructions.

Offense & Defense

• Master of the Pick and Roll: Brown is exceptionally comfortable operating in ball-screen situations. He manipulates defenders with pace, consistently gets to his spots, and demonstrates advanced vision when reading help defenders.

• Organizing the Offense: Functions as an offensive conductor. Keeps teammates involved, maintains spacing discipline, and consistently makes decisions that improve overall offensive flow.

• Perimeter Shooting: One of the strongest aspects of his profile. Brown is a legitimate threat both off the catch and off the dribble. Defenders must respect his range, creating additional opportunities for playmaking and rim pressure.

• Efficiency in the Mid Range: Displays excellent touch and comfort operating in the intermediate areas of the floor. Utilizes floaters, pull ups, and runners effectively against dropping defenses.

• Creation: High level passer capable of creating easy offense for teammates. Delivers accurate passes to rollers, shooters, and cutters while maintaining excellent ball security.

• Point of Attack Defense: Competes defensively and demonstrates solid anticipation. Active hands generate occasional steals and disruptions.

• Team Defense: Processes rotations well and generally remains engaged off the ball. Understands positioning and communicates effectively within defensive concepts.

Key Takeaways: Brown’s offensive profile revolves around efficiency and control rather than overwhelming athletic advantages. His ability to consistently create quality possessions makes him one of the more reliable offensive prospects in the class. While some guards generate impressive numbers through difficult shot making, Brown often creates advantages through superior processing and decision making.

The shooting development significantly raises his NBA ceiling. Defenders cannot simply play for the pass because Brown is capable of punishing defensive mistakes with perimeter scoring. That dual threat capability makes him difficult to scheme against and increases his versatility across different offensive systems.

Defensively, Brown may never be a lockdown stopper, but his awareness, effort, and understanding of team concepts should allow him to remain playable in meaningful minutes. Combined with his offensive strengths, that creates a strong foundation for long term NBA success.

Areas for Growth

• Strength: Adding strength will be important as he transitions toward NBA competition. Greater physicality would help him absorb contact offensively and defend larger guards more effectively.

• Aggressiveness Scoring the Ball: There are stretches where Brown prioritizes facilitating over looking for his own offense. Becoming more assertive as a scorer could further diversify his offensive impact.

• Finishing Through Contact: Excellent touch currently compensates for some physical limitations, but increased strength should improve efficiency around the basket against NBA rim protectors.

• Defensive Versatility: Size limitations may occasionally impact matchup flexibility. Continued physical development will be important in helping him guard multiple backcourt positions.

Key Takeaways: The encouraging aspect of Brown’s projection is that most of his developmental questions revolve around physical tools rather than basketball skill. The difficult attributes to teach, decision making, shooting touch, offensive organization, and basketball IQ, are already present at a high level.

His ceiling will largely be determined by how much physical development occurs over the next several years. Improvements in strength, rim pressure, and defensive versatility could elevate him from a reliable rotation guard into a high level NBA starter.

Even if those physical gains are more modest than anticipated, Brown’s intelligence and offensive skill set provide a strong floor. Guards who consistently make winning plays, protect possessions, and create efficient offense tend to find long term success at the professional level.

NBA Projection & Player Comparison (Style)

Mikel Brown Jr. projects as a high IQ lead guard capable of organizing offense, spacing the floor, and creating efficient opportunities for both himself and teammates. His blend of shooting, playmaking, and decision making fits seamlessly into the modern NBA, where offensive efficiency and ball security remain premium traits.

The strongest aspect of Brown’s projection is his role versatility. He can function as a primary initiator on second units, a secondary creator alongside star players, or a floor spacing guard capable of operating off the ball. That flexibility dramatically increases his value and lowers the risk associated with his projection.

His game is particularly well suited for organizations that prioritize ball movement, spacing, and intelligent decision making. Coaches consistently trust players who understand pace, value possessions, and elevate team offense, and Brown possesses all three qualities.

Brown shares similarities with Tyus Jones and Darius Garland. Like Jones, he excels through decision making, pace control, and offensive organization. Like Garland, he combines shooting gravity with advanced pick and roll creation and a polished offensive skill set. While he may not possess elite athletic tools, his skill, feel, and efficiency create a strong pathway toward becoming a high level NBA guard.

Final Evaluation

Mikel Brown Jr. enters Louisville as one of the most polished floor generals in college basketball. His combination of shooting, playmaking, basketball IQ, and offensive control gives him one of the highest floors among guards in the 2026 NBA Draft class.

The NBA increasingly values guards capable of creating efficient offense without monopolizing possessions, and Brown fits that mold perfectly. His ability to organize an offense, create quality shots, and limit mistakes should make him attractive to a wide range of organizations.

While questions regarding physical upside and defensive scalability remain worth monitoring, the overall profile is exceptionally strong. Brown’s blend of skill and intelligence gives him a clear pathway toward becoming a long term NBA contributor, with the potential to develop into one of the more reliable lead guards from his class. In a league where decision making often separates good players from great ones, Brown’s feel for the game remains one of his greatest strengths.

Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. enters college basketball as one of the most naturally gifted offensive players in the 2026 NBA Draft class. A former five star recruit and McDonald’s All-American, Acuff built his reputation through elite scoring instincts, advanced shot creation, and the ability to generate offense against virtually any defensive coverage. Few freshmen arrive on campus with a more polished offensive package, and his blend of creativity, confidence, and perimeter skill immediately projects to the professional level.

What separates Acuff from many young scoring guards is the diversity of his offensive arsenal. He is not simply a volume scorer or a microwave shot maker. Acuff has demonstrated the ability to operate as a lead ball handler, navigate ball screens, manipulate defenders in space, and create efficient offense from all three levels. His handle, footwork, and touch allow him to manufacture scoring opportunities without relying exclusively on athletic advantages. As a result, he projects as one of the more scalable offensive guards in the class.

The long-term evaluation will ultimately center on how much value he can provide outside of scoring. His offensive talent is unquestioned, but continued development as a playmaker, defender, and decision maker will determine whether he projects as a high level rotation scorer or a true lead guard capable of orchestrating an NBA offense. Regardless, Acuff enters the season with one of the highest offensive ceilings in college basketball.

Player Bio

• Height - 6’2”

• Weight - 185 lbs

• Wingspan - 6’5”

• Draft Age - 19

• Position - Guard

• Nationality - American

The Profile

• Shot Creation: Acuff is one of the most advanced self creators in the freshman class. His ability to create separation through ball handling, pace changes, and footwork consistently places defenders at a disadvantage. He is comfortable operating from isolation, ball screens, and late clock situations.

• Natural Instincts: Natural scorers possess a unique ability to recognize opportunities before they develop, and Acuff consistently demonstrates that trait. He understands angles, defender positioning, and how to leverage hesitation moves into scoring opportunities.

• Basketball IQ: While his reputation is built primarily on scoring, Acuff shows encouraging flashes as a creator for others. He reads secondary defenders well and has the vision to capitalize on defensive rotations when he remains patient.

• Athleticism: Quick-twitch athlete with strong burst and acceleration. While not an elite vertical athlete by NBA standards, he possesses more than enough explosiveness to create advantages and pressure defenses.

• Competitive Streak: Acuff plays with a scorer's mentality and embraces difficult offensive assignments. He is comfortable taking big shots and carrying offensive responsibility, traits NBA evaluators often value in lead guards.

Key Takeaways: Acuff possesses one of the most translatable offensive skill sets in the 2026 draft cycle. NBA organizations consistently prioritize guards who can create offense without requiring ideal circumstances, and Acuff has demonstrated that ability throughout his development. His combination of advanced shot-making, ball handling creativity, and scoring versatility gives him a foundation that few prospects possess entering college.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of his profile is that his offensive game is built on skill rather than purely physical advantages. Players who rely primarily on athleticism often face significant adjustment periods at higher levels. Acuff’s ability to create separation through footwork, pacing, and ball control should translate more naturally against NBA athletes.

His long term ceiling will be determined by the growth of his ancillary skills. If his playmaking, defensive engagement, and efficiency continue to improve, there is legitimate lead guard upside. Even if those areas develop more gradually, the shot creation and scoring package provide a relatively safe floor as a rotation-level offensive contributor.

Offense & Defense

• Three Level Scorer: Acuff can score from anywhere on the floor. He is comfortable attacking the rim, pulling up from mid-range, and extending defenses beyond the three-point line. His versatility forces defenders to guard multiple threats simultaneously.

• Pull Up Perfection: Arguably his most NBA-ready skill. Acuff can rise comfortably off the dribble from both mid-range and beyond the arc. His confidence and shot-making versatility make him difficult to contain in late-clock situations.

• Playmaker: Shows flashes of advanced passing reads, particularly when defenses commit additional resources to stopping his scoring. Continued growth in this area could significantly elevate his offensive ceiling.

• Pressure the Rim: Despite lacking elite size, Acuff consistently pressures defenses downhill. His body control, touch, and creativity around the basket allow him to finish against length.

• Defensive Repertoire: Displays active hands and solid anticipation as an off-ball defender. He generates turnovers by jumping passing lanes and reading offensive actions early.

• Point of Attack: Competitive but inconsistent. Physical limitations can occasionally surface against larger guards, and screen navigation remains a work in progress.

Key Takeaways: Acuff’s offensive profile is among the most polished in the freshman class. His ability to generate efficient offense without needing significant advantages from teammates makes him particularly appealing in today’s NBA. Teams are constantly searching for guards who can create quality shots late in possessions, and Acuff possesses that skill at a high level.

The shot-making package gives him a clear pathway toward offensive success, but what makes him especially intriguing is the potential for growth as a facilitator. Defenses will inevitably load up against him because of his scoring ability, creating opportunities for him to leverage that gravity into playmaking opportunities.

Defensively, he is unlikely to become a primary stopper, but improvement in consistency and physical strength could allow him to become neutral rather than a target. If that occurs, the offensive upside becomes even more valuable.

Areas for Growth

• Expand Playmaking: The passing flashes are evident, but he has yet to consistently demonstrate the floor-general traits associated with elite NBA lead guards. Becoming a more dynamic facilitator remains one of the largest developmental swings in his projection.

• Consistency in Decision Making: Acuff occasionally falls in love with difficult shots when simpler options are available. While difficult shot-making is part of what makes him special, improving shot selection could significantly boost efficiency.

• Finishing Strong: Craft and touch are already strengths, but improved strength and physical development should help him convert more efficiently against NBA rim protectors.

• Off Ball Reliability: As his role evolves, developing greater value without the basketball will further enhance lineup flexibility.

• Physicality: Adding strength will be important as he transitions toward NBA competition. Stronger guards can occasionally dislodge him from defensive positions and create challenges at the point of attack.

Key Takeaways: The encouraging aspect of Acuff’s developmental profile is that most of his growth areas revolve around refinement rather than fundamental concerns. The difficult skills, shot creation, scoring instincts, and offensive confidence, are already firmly established.

His path toward maximizing his ceiling largely revolves around becoming a more complete guard. Improvements as a facilitator, defender, and decision-maker would elevate him from a talented scoring prospect into a player capable of consistently running an NBA offense.

Given his age, offensive foundation, and track record of production, these are realistic developmental goals. If they materialize, Acuff has the talent to become one of the premier offensive guards from this class.

NBA Projection & Player Comparison (Style)

Darius Acuff Jr. projects as a dynamic offensive guard whose value will be driven primarily by shot creation and perimeter scoring. His offensive versatility gives him a pathway toward either lead guard responsibilities or a high level secondary creator role.

In today’s NBA, playoff defenses often require perimeter players capable of manufacturing offense when schemes eliminate first options. Acuff possesses the creativity and confidence necessary to fill that role. His scoring package translates particularly well to modern spacing environments where guards are asked to create advantages off the dribble.

Stylistically, Acuff shares similarities with Immanuel Quickley and a young Lou Williams. Like both players, he thrives through shot creation, pull-up scoring, pace manipulation, and offensive creativity. He also flashes elements of Tyrese Maxey's scoring aggression as well as some Stephon Marbury, though his game relies more heavily on craft and shot making than pure speed. The ultimate ceiling depends on his development as a facilitator and defender, but the offensive foundation is among the strongest in the class.

Final Evaluation

Darius Acuff Jr. enters Arkansas as one of the most gifted offensive prospects in college basketball. His combination of shot creation, scoring versatility, and advanced perimeter skill gives him a legitimate chance to emerge as one of the premier guards in the 2026 NBA Draft class.

The pathway toward NBA success is already visible because elite offensive creation remains one of the most valuable commodities in basketball. Acuff can generate offense in a variety of ways and possesses the confidence necessary to shoulder significant responsibility.

The remaining questions center on completeness rather than talent. If his playmaking, efficiency, and defensive consistency continue trending upward, he has the potential to develop into a high level NBA starting guard. At minimum, his scoring package should provide a pathway toward a long professional career. In a league increasingly defined by perimeter creation, Acuff’s offensive talent will give him every opportunity to succeed at the next level.

Opening Statements:

What if I told you that a former top-five recruit in the nation who is a near 7-foot-tall forward, averaged 16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game in his freshman year, can “shoot” the three ball and provide positional versatility on defense doesn’t even have a top-20 grade on my board? If that statement seems outlandish to you, then I ask you to brace yourself as I introduce the topic of today’s discussion: the king of controversy himself and the most divisive prospect I’ve ever evaluated, Nate Ament. Coming into this year, there was a real crowd — including myself — that believed Ament had a chance to compete for a top-three slot in this year’s draft. His high school tape was by no means perfect, but the flashes of high-level shot creation and positional versatility were absolutely enough to warrant top-of-the-draft buzz. However, the ensuing year was nothing short of a disheveled jumble of highs and lows that leaves me completely lost as to what to think about the 19-year-old.

On one hand, the production isn’t bad — even when considering the nuance that leaves him where he’s at. But on the other hand, Ament played stretches of basketball where he didn’t even look like a solid college player, let alone a lottery talent in the draft. I say all this to drive home the point that everyone wants to understand Ament. His skillset is polarizing and, if he reaches his highest-end outcome, he could be a transcendent talent. However, the idea that you can just pencil in someone as inconsistent as him in the top 10 solely based on the idea of him reaching his top 1% outcome is fundamentally flawed. Who Ament will actually end up being is a case worth solving, and with that, I open the doors for evidence both for and against Ament the player.

Evidence For:

- Exhibit A — Physical Tools

I’m starting to get to a point where I believe the entire basis for Ament’s evaluation revolves around the things that he does for a player his size. I’ll admit, 6-foot-9 and a half barefoot guys with a 6-foot-11 and a half wingspan who have ball skills tend to get fed opportunities even if they aren’t producing, solely off of the “upside” that they bring. This is even more so the case when said player leaps 37 inches off the ground, can complete a lane agility drill in 11.27 seconds and can finish a shuttle run in 3.26 seconds. If you couldn’t tell by now, the player I am describing is Mr. Ament himself, as he without a doubt fits the billing of the prototypical modern forward with high-end movement skills. However, combine testing and in-game athleticism are two vastly different things, and in Ament’s case I’m just flat-out not sold.

Graphic via: TawnyPark Matrics

Ament has great balance and is very coordinated, giving him really fluid movement patterns, which in turn can create the illusion of a great athlete. However, when actually analyzing his game and dissecting how he utilizes his athletic gifts, I was left far less optimistic. Rarely does Ament flat out blow past a guy with raw short-area quickness or fly around the court defensively, cutting off multiple drives and causing chaos. One could make the very reasonable argument that Ament has not fully grown into his body and figured out how to utilize his tools yet, and as an optimist, I tend to agree with that crowd. However, it’s never a guarantee that a player can piece everything together in the blink of an eye, as it often takes the right coaching staff and situation to truly maximize their gifts. There’s always a chance Ament could find that environment, but for now his athletic gifts are just that — athletic gifts — not tangible tools.

- Exhibit B — Skill Flashes

A reasonable argument can very well be made that Ament’s physical gifts are just a gimmick, not replicated into his actual skillset. However, what isn’t a gimmick is the truly impressive offensive flashes he has showcased over the past couple years of his basketball career. I don’t care what the context is, handling a 27.8% usage rate as a primarily off-ball-centric player on a really good basketball team is not something that you see every day, and that’s exactly what Ament did. Not to mention, he was by all accounts a positive impact player while doing so, posting a 5.1 OBPM and +3.1 ORAPM, both of which suggest true high-level impact. As I’m sure you know, one cannot just happen into production at that level, and neither did Ament despite his apparent flaws. I previously mentioned how impressive of a mover Ament is despite not being the best athlete, and that is evident in his offensive game. He displays consistently great movement patterns and balance, particularly when attacking downhill, allowing him to work his way to his spots. Heavy on the word work, but I’ll get to that later on. When working downhill, Ament clearly isn’t afraid of contact, sometimes even to his own demise, finding any way possible to work into his opponents in order to generate space. This was a skill that Ament wasn’t capable of just a year prior, but after putting on close to 20 pounds of muscle, he is now able to seek out and play through contact, resulting in him posting a remarkable 57.8% free throw rate, which landed him at the line more than seven times per game. I’ll once again reiterate that contact is the name of the game for Ament, something he was forced to embrace when restricted to confined spaces. As for his ability to actually finish at the rim, well, that’s a conversation for the latter half of the piece.

Video via: No Ceilings NBA

Beyond who he is as a rim finisher, Ament also has a very nuanced and relatively balanced shot diet. He is more than willing to shoot from all three levels, both off the dribble and off the catch, with his height allowing him to rise over almost every defender in order to get his shot off. Ament got to these spots in a variety of ways as well, handling virtually any action that Rick Barnes and Tennessee threw his way. He handled post-ups, wing isolations, pick-and-rolls both as the ball handler and roll man, along with a variety of other actions. As a result, he was given a fair amount of creative freedom regarding what spots he wanted to get to and how he got there, leading to the aforementioned balanced shot diet. Ament did have a tendency to settle in the midrange at times. In fact, almost 43% of all his shots came from there — a fair bit more than the roughly 29% that came at the rim and 32% that came from beyond the arc — but nonetheless, he was comfortable from every spot on the floor. To some, the heavy midrange diet may seem concerning, especially as it increasingly becomes a dying breed in the modern, more analytically driven NBA. However, most, if not all, elite scorers — and even the vast majority of solid scorers at the NBA level — fall back on the midrange shot, using it as a way to keep defenders honest and out of predictable schemes. With that said, I do hope that the 9.6 midrange attempts per 100 possessions can be distributed more evenly toward rim and three-point attempts, as no matter how much I advocate for the shot, it is less efficient than its counterparts. Still, keeping the midrange shot as a tool will prove valuable if he can make better use of the volume and improve in the other areas of scoring.

As for his passing, much like his scoring arsenal, Ament showed enough flashes to warrant intrigue. At face value, his 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio and 14.8% assist rate aren’t exactly the sexiest numbers in the world, and I’m not going to sit here and argue that Ament is some game-breaking passer. However, for a player who handled the defensive attention that he did while carrying the usage that he did, recording just a 12.6% turnover rate is without a doubt an impressive feat. Ament is almost strictly a reactive playmaker, taking advantage of windows naturally created by his gravity and passing his way out of tough spots. He did make the occasional slick pocket pass or skip pass in the pick-and-roll that tickles my mind in just the right way, but it’s important to remember the broader context of what is going on. In totality, those flashes were just that: flashes. The vast majority of the time, especially when operating out of structure, Ament is incapable of making proactive playmaking reads, which doesn’t doom his outlook, but rather limits his ceiling. Developing that aspect of his game could be the key needed to unlock his star upside, but as long as Ament can be a steady hand who makes the simple reads and doesn’t turn the ball over, he should be just fine.

Video via: No Ceilings NBA

- Exhibit C — Defensive Upside

For as much as Ament does offensively that piques my interest, I can’t help but be equally intrigued by what he brings on the defensive side of the basketball. Take that intrigue for what you will, but nonetheless, he has tools to work with. In the early days of his freshman season, I actually found myself wildly disappointed with Ament as a defender. He wasn’t a shutdown guy in high school by any means, but he was, at worst, an event creator who could guard a variety of spots at a high level. However, the adjustment to the college game seemed to take a pretty hefty toll on Ament, evident by him recording just two blocks through Tennessee’s first 14 games of the year. Much like he did offensively, though, Ament built as the year went on defensively, and by season’s end, I was back to where I was with him coming out of high school.

Ament finished the year with a solid 2.7 DBPM, encapsulating his minor yet sufficient impact. His advanced numbers weren’t as kind to him, however, as his 2.7% block rate and 1.9% steal rate definitely leave something to be desired. On top of that, Ament had a negative stock-to-foul ratio, another thing that isn’t exactly ideal for a player his size. However, as I mentioned, he did build as the year went on and clearly figured out how to better utilize his tools. Ament is able to slide his feet fairly well for a player his size, getting low in his stance and gliding to cut off driving angles. So many players with his size end up looking like baby deer learning how to walk when matched up with guards on the perimeter, but in Ament’s case, he always seemed balanced and aware of where he needed to be.

Video via: No Ceilings NBA

Big men and more developed forwards are able to exploit Ament’s thinner frame at times, working through his chest en route to their spots, but that is something I have full confidence will fade over time. Ament has already shown great contact balance, being able to absorb bumps and hold his ground, something I can only imagine will continue to improve as his frame develops. Along with that, Ament has shown aggressive defensive flashes in certain contexts, proving that he may have more defensive upside than what he has shown so far. Overall, I wouldn’t expect Ament to be a defensive stopper by any means, but in the right context and with his tools being maximized, he could very easily end up making a positive impact.

Evidence Against:

- Exhibit A — Production Concerns

One of the great realizations that every draft scout goes through is the inevitable understanding that there are more ways to quantify impact than just the basic box score. In Ament’s case, hardly any number besides his points, rebounds and assists totals is working in his favor, so it’s no surprise that on a deeper dive, things only continue to take a turn for the worse. Starting with his efficiency, which, as I’m sure you could’ve guessed based on his raw numbers, is not great — at all. Ament posted a 53.4% true shooting percentage last season and a 45.2% effective field goal percentage, placing him in just the second percentile of forward prospects. To put it simply, Ament wasn’t efficient from any level on the floor, and in totality, it hurt his team.

I spoke earlier about his ability to get to the free throw line and how positive of an indicator that is. However, when you stack that number against the abysmal 50.8% that he shot at the rim last season, his outlook begins to look extremely grim. This awful finishing rate isn’t just a product of poor touch or being out-athleted, either. Ament flat out doesn’t understand how to create finishing angles or how to adjust his drives to get to them. He often settles for going up straight and strong, which is beneficial when he is the superior athlete, as oftentimes defenders have no choice but to foul him. But when Ament inevitably scales up in competition and is forced to compete against players who are just as, if not more, athletic than he is, then he won’t have the same luxury. On the rare occasion that Ament does try to attack a finishing angle with a euro step, pro hop or spin move, it just looks sloppy and slow, placing him in even worse spots than where he was prior.

Graphic via: TawnyPark Matrics

However, like I mentioned, it wasn’t just rim-finishing issues that plagued his efficiency either. Ament was bad from each and every level. In the midrange, the area that he loves and relies on the most, Ament was still ineffective for reasons largely disconnected from his raw shot touch. As I mentioned earlier, Ament doesn’t have the raw athletic gifts to consistently create advantages without it being a manufactured situation. As a result, in order to get to his spots in the midrange, Ament had to work and claw and fight, taking bump after bump and redirection after redirection just to find enough space to get the ball out of his shot pocket. Because of this, his base was often off balance when he gathered, leaving him with tough shot angles and an overall bad end result. Ament shot 37.2% on short midrange shots and 33.3% on long midrange shots, which doesn’t bode well alongside his 33.3% mark from beyond the arc.

Even with how frustrating this was to watch as an evaluator, I can’t imagine it was pleasant for his teammates either, a notion that the numbers back up. In fact, despite handling such a hefty usage rate and carrying so much defensive attention, Ament was actually around a net neutral for Tennessee last year, with a fair argument that could be made for him being a net negative. His raw net rating suggests that the team was slightly better with him on the court versus off, with the raw number totaling 0.4. However, when considering the fact that the team’s offensive rating was 4.6 points worse with him on the floor and the team’s defensive rating was 4.4 points better with him off the floor, it becomes much harder to make the argument that Ament was positively contributing to winning basketball on a consistent basis. Sure, in the stretches of games where he is rolling and playing to his full potential, the team benefits from his presence, but when Ament isn’t rolling, the entire team is often negatively impacted.

This isn’t just an offensive issue either, as Ament’s defense has its fair share of flaws too. Like I mentioned earlier, he has shown a lot of positive flashes as to who he can be on the defensive side of the basketball, but for the vast majority of the year, Ament was doing more bad than good. I’ve already spoken on his horrendous defensive playmaking, especially considering his positional size, which places him in just the 25th percentile of forwards in college hoops. However, Ament’s lack of impact stems deeper than just not taking risks, as he has some real issues that opponents tend to expose.

The most glaring issue, at least in my eyes, is the method he employs on the defensive end. Ament, like many other bigger players, relies on his height a little too much, expecting that what he has in size can make up for what he lacks in foot speed and agility. However, for Ament, who is big but not quite center-big, this strategy doesn’t really work and oftentimes allows players enough space to take and make relatively open shots. Opponents may not have shot much better or worse when guarded by Ament, but one thing is certain: they were more willing to shoot when guarded by him, especially from the outside. Ament ranked in just the 11th percentile as a three-point deterrent, a mark that is very atypical for someone who isn’t patrolling the paint very often as a weakside rim protector. Much like many other aspects of his game, Ament was able to rely on his athleticism to close shooting windows against college athletes relatively quickly, but that, once again, is something I just can’t imagine paying off once he scales up in competition. And as much as I hate to admit it, the numbers are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Ament’s issues.

- Exhibit B — Consistency Issues

I feel as if it goes without saying that consistency is a trait that NBA teams yearn for. There are countless prospects in every draft cycle that go through hot stretches in which they look like true NBA talents, but there is a clear, set-in-stone difference between flashes and true ability. Typically, for freshmen in particular, consistency comes as the season builds on. More reps and more games against true college-level talent typically lead to a player being more comfortable and capable of competing in that environment. For Ament, I don’t even know how to begin to describe what he did last season. Saying he had a roller coaster season is underselling his inconsistency by a long shot, so stick with me here as I try and break down what last season truly looked like for Ament.

Tennessee’s season started off how many other power four teams’ seasons started, with a light stretch of non-conference games that allowed them to warm up, get a feel for playing with each other and stack up some wins. Through those first six games of lighter play, Ament looked great. He was averaging 19.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.2 steals a game, doing so with a solid 51.3% effective field goal percentage. He was clearly comfortable and in sync with his team, allowing Ament to assert himself over the lesser competition. However, as I’m sure you could guess, that fun was short-lived as by the time the Volunteers schedule began to ramp up, he began to ramp down – all the way down. In the nine games following that first stretch, Ament was flat out terrible, falling all the way down to 11.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.1 steals a game, with a putrid 39.9% effective field goal percentage. It was no coincidence either that this was the first stretch of real competition that Tennessee was playing and a level that Ament clearly wasn’t ready for. He couldn’t handle the uptick in athleticism and physicality, forcing him to work incredibly hard to get to his spots. He was still able to get to the free throw line at a solid rate, but that was virtually all of his scoring production. He didn’t have the ability to create for himself or others and as a result his numbers took a major hit. But, as all great tales go, the story doesn’t stop there as I have to give credit where it is due. Ament did not let that nine-game stretch define his season in the slightest, as directly following that awful skid, some switch flipped for him. Almost out of the blue, Ament morphed into what was legitimately one of the better players in college basketball over his next 11 games. He averaged 22.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists, doing it all with his effective field goal percentage sitting at 50.6%. Ament was decisive and looked as if he figured out how to handle the physicality that SEC play brings. It also helped that his shot was falling, which in turn opened up more opportunities, but nonetheless, this was the Ament that fans were waiting for. Defensively, however, it was one of his least impressive stretches, but I’ll cut him some slack. Looking back on the tape for these games, I found him to be very relaxed on defense but not inattentive. He was still engaging in the action in front of him, just not taking risks to make plays on the ball, resulting in some lower steal and block numbers. However, I don’t think any fans were complaining about Ament over this stretch, especially because the Vols were winning games, collecting eight dubs over this time period.

Now it’s time to buckle up because the final nine games of the season for Ament were nothing short of pure mayhem, and I’ll try my best to break it down without being disingenuous to external factors. Following the aforementioned 11-game stretch, Ament had a rough road outing versus Vanderbilt, shooting just 3 of 13 from the field and 2 of 10 from three. This game ended up not mattering however, as Tennessee was able to pull out the narrow victory before packing their bags and heading to my home school of Missouri. This was a game that I was able to attend live and in the flesh, giving me a great view as to how Ament operates both in games and before them, providing some added insight. However, I left that matchup feeling underwhelmed as early on in the game, Ament appeared to tweak his ankle, forcing an early exit from the contest, which he shortly returned to. He was still able to finish the game and play all 36 minutes, but for the entire matchup, I couldn’t help but feel as if he was laboring through the injury. He didn’t seem to glide the same or change direction quite like I thought he should, leaving me no option but to ultimately scrap what I saw. My injury suspicions were quickly vindicated as well, with Ament leaving Tennessee’s following matchup versus Alabama just 11 minutes in with an injury to the same ankle that I had my inklings about. The injury proved to be relatively serious as well, with Ament remaining sidelined for the Volunteers’ two remaining regular season games, holding him out in hopes of ramping him back up for a deep playoff run. That plan ended up going exactly to plan in terms of results, but the process in which said playoff run happened was far from what I expected.

Tennessee’s postseason kicked off with a comeback win versus Auburn in the SEC tournament, a comeback almost solely fueled by the man of the hour, Nate Ament. He was stellar in the matchup, finishing with 27 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, seemingly proving that he was ready to make the healthy postseason run that many had hoped for. The Volunteers’ second game, however, was a completely different story. A familiar foe in Vanderbilt was able to best them on what was basically their home court in Nashville, earning a seven-point victory. The key to the Commodores’ success that night: shutting the water off for Ament, who finished with just 12 points on 1-of-13 shooting. But hey, he grabbed 11 rebounds. All jokes aside, it was an awful outing that seemingly killed what momentum the Volunteers had built heading into the NCAA tournament. However, said game did no such thing as Tennessee stormed its way to the Elite Eight before an inevitably painful loss to Michigan ended the run. What made this run truly so special for the Volunteers was the fact that they won that many games consecutively against high-quality teams with Ament playing what was easily his worst basketball of the entire year. He averaged just 10.3 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists, including a zero-point outing in their opening match of the tournament. Zero. His play was so bad that Tennessee could no longer trust him on the floor, often turning to other bodies in competitive stretches of games. Ament’s play was so bad that some assumed the ankle injury from a while back had flared up again, a statement which more than likely had some truth to it, but nonetheless was a painful watch for someone who had begun to find his spark. Now the only question that remains is what to think of this. On one hand, I can be Mr. Optimist and assume that health deceived Ament for the back half of the year and ultimately held him back. On the other hand, I can be Mr. Pessimist and say that this inconsistency is just who he is and take it at face value. Either way the cookie is cut, a plethora of questions are left unanswered, making his season of inconsistency a damning piece of evidence working against his favor.

- Exhibit C — Feel Questions

Above all else, the biggest, most glaring concern that I have with Ament long term is his feel for the game. Never once have I questioned his ability on the court or the talent that he possesses, meaning that the only thing holding him back from being a truly transcendent player is his mind for the game. Now, it’s tough to assess the mental fortitude of a person whom I have never met, but in Ament’s case, there doesn’t seem to be another answer. The proof is in the pudding. Ament constantly flashes high-end ability on both ends of the floor throughout the course of a game. However, I can’t point to a stretch of games where I felt he was maximizing his abilities in their totality. In games where he was rolling offensively, his defensive impact lacked. In games where he was scoring in bunches, his passing impact lacked. It always seemed to be one or the other with him. Ament’s 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio and lack of stock generation also point to signs of poor feel. The ATO being so low suggests that he doesn’t have a great idea of how to value possessions, using playmaking more as a reactive trait than a proactive weapon. The tape backs this up too, as Ament rarely was actively seeking out playmaking opportunities, rather just taking what the defense gave him.

Graphic via: TawnyPark Matrics

The stock rates being low for a player his size are especially damning, as they suggest he doesn’t know how or when to take risks on defense. Players his size should almost stumble into better defensive numbers than what he produced and actively seek out extra deflections and blocks purely because they have the luxury of being big enough to do so. Spinning back to the offensive side of the basketball, Ament isn’t a split-second processor. Every time he catches the ball, he stops and surveys, taking a peek at what the floor in front of him has to offer. As a result, defenses have extra time to recover to their spots, making it more difficult for Ament to attack the areas of the floor that he wants to. This trait is very likely directly tied to his overreliance on the midrange too, as not being able to consistently create opportunities downhill often forces him to settle for tougher shots. Even when he does create advantage drives, I don’t find Ament to have much nuance as a driver, another sign of lacking feel. His driving lanes are often off track from the basket and when he finally chooses to gather, it’s often with slow euro steps or hop steps. Doing so makes me believe that he isn’t processing what he is doing particularly well when heading to the basket, having to carefully think through every move before he makes it. He obviously will get more comfortable over time, but it’s hard to imagine he pieces it all together anytime soon.

It’s worth mentioning that it’s not all bad for Ament. His high free throw rate and solid offensive rebounding tendencies lead me to believe that, at the very least, he understands some of the nuances of basketball. It obviously does little when stacked up against the other nuances that he lacks, but nonetheless, he has some things working in his favor.

Closing Arguments:

Breaking down the complex evaluation of Nate Ament is not a task for the weak. So rarely does any player show so many indicators of being both a great and terrible NBA player all bundled up into one season. Whether you choose to believe that Ament’s performance last year was a result of constant injury battles or him not being put in the ideal context is up for each individual to decide, but for me, I can only evaluate what I’ve been given. I don’t have intel on Ament’s “injury struggles” or “scheme fits” last season. All I have is a 35-game sample to go off of, and one that I am not overly encouraged by. In an ideal world, I could call for a re-trial and send him back to school for a sophomore season, trying to get a better grasp on who he actually is as a player while also seeing how much he improves with an offseason of development. Sadly, I have not been given that luxury and am now forced to work with what I have and come to a final verdict. The case for Ament is simple: a big, young player oozing with talent on both ends of the floor. The case against him is a little more complicated, as the lack of consistent production, nuance as a player and feel for the game all stack heavily against him. Now, after giving myself a chance to review all the ins and outs, nooks and crannies, pros and cons, I have come to a final verdict.

Final Verdict — Deadlock Jury - House Arrest

Call it a cop out, call it whatever you want, I don’t care. I have not seen enough from Ament for me to invest millions of dollars of guaranteed money into him just yet. Obviously, I’m not, but if I was a GM tasked with making the decision on Ament, I wouldn’t even open conversations about entertaining drafting him until the 20s. It sounds harsh, but this is the exact archetype of player that burns scouts each and every year. It’s so easy to get infatuated with the tools, traits and what-ifs that we lose sight of what the prospect has actually done on a basketball court.

Ament’s case carries a bit more nuance because it wasn’t just flashes all year. He showed a stretch of basketball where he was a legitimately great player and prospect, but sadly, that stretch was short-lived. Now, as a result, it’s a mystery as to where he will go, with no clear sign as to whether he is viewed as a lottery guy or a mid-to-late first-round pick. Nonetheless, there are tools to work with, hence why he is on house arrest. Ament is a talent that I wouldn’t be over the moon about drafting right now, but I am not all out on him as a prospect long term. He has still shown enough to warrant intrigue and pique the interest of people around the league. Whether the inevitable gamble a team takes ultimately pays off remains to be seen. For now, Ament remains a prospect built more on projection than production.

Every draft cycle produces at least one prospect who starts the year absent from draft conversations and finishes it as one of the hottest commodities in the class. Recent examples like Bub Carrington, Noah Clowney and Jeremiah Fears all followed that path, rising from relative obscurity to lottery conversations in a matter of months. This year, Keaton Wagler threw himself into that pool of players in one of the more unusual ways we have seen in recent memory. All of the names I previously mentioned were, at worst, four-star recruits ranked comfortably inside the top 100 by most recruiting services. Wagler, meanwhile, was ranked by just one website. Yes, the same guy who is now seen as a lock to be a top-10 pick was unranked by virtually every outlet as a high school recruit.

Despite that, it didn’t take long for Wagler to make himself known, as rumblings about him began to circulate almost the moment Illinois started summer workouts. Wagler quickly proved those rumblings were warranted, establishing himself as one of the most tantalizing freshmen in the country right out of the gate. As a result, I jumped on the opportunity, writing about him in just my second player profile of the year all the way back in November. Fast forward to now, and Wagler is still one of, if not my favorite prospect in this draft and finds himself firmly in the top four of my board. That may be a bit high for some, but I think I can make a compelling case as to why I believe that, and as always, let’s start with the physicals.

Physicals:

Going to be Captain Obvious here for a second and say that the NBA likes size, particularly at the guard position. Now, I do not associate myself with the group of believers who think small guards are a dying breed, but it is undoubtedly harder to build a team that relies heavily on the production of a player under 6-foot-3. Luckily for Wagler — and whatever team drafts him — that won’t be a concern, as he measured in at 6-foot-5 barefoot with a not-as-impressive, but still solid, 6-foot-6¼ wingspan. His weight of 188 pounds is by no means ideal, especially for a player his height, but with rumors circulating that he has put on over 20 pounds since stepping foot on campus, signs point to him moving in the right direction.

Graph Via: TawnyPark Metrics

The real questions about Wagler’s physical profile lie within his athletic testing. For me personally, I don’t care in the slightest if someone is considered a “poor athlete” by NBA standards as long as that player can still produce. One of the biggest misunderstandings in the scouting community is that athleticism is necessary to make an impact, particularly regarding defensive malleability and rim pressure — a statement that is inherently false. There have been countless “poor athletes” who went on to have amazing NBA careers in a wide variety of roles, and I believe Wagler is next in that line. Is it helpful to be an elite athlete? Sure, but it is by no means a requirement. In Wagler’s case, I even find myself thinking that his athletic concerns have been blown out of proportion. At the combine, he tested with a 36-inch max vertical, a 3.0-second shuttle run and an 11.05-second lane agility. None of those marks are elite by any means, but all of them tested around average for a point guard, which is impressive considering his plus size. Now, I will admit that these average athletic numbers don’t necessarily pop on tape, but at worst, it’s encouraging to know that he isn’t too far behind the NBA pack.

Season of Ups:

As I mentioned in the intro, Wagler did have a teeny bit of buzz surrounding his name entering his freshman season. That buzz was only amplified after the Illini announced he was entering the year in the starting lineup, but things didn’t get off to the most ideal start. Through Illinois’ first eight games, they played a fair mix of solid Power Four-level talent, along with the typical tune-up of low-major schools. Throughout those first eight games, Wagler flashed his potential, averaging 13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. However, his production saw a noticeable decline when matched up against the aforementioned Power Four competition. Against Texas Tech he had just 11 points and 0 assists on 3-of-9 shooting. Against Alabama it was just 8 points on 2-of-9 shooting. Against UConn it was just 3 points, as Wagler only saw 14 minutes of action for schematic reasons. After that UConn game, it seemed as if the draft hype around him had stalled, as it was clear he was talented, but not yet capable of handling NBA-level athletes and physicality. It was after that UConn game that everything changed.

From that day on, Wagler never once dipped below 10 points and truly came into his own. His real coming-out party was a game I got to witness live, as the Illinois matchup against Missouri at the Enterprise Center was a true eye-opener. Wagler was fluid, confident, aggressive and assertive throughout the entire game, but I was even more impressed with what he did outside of the 40 minutes. As someone who was given floor access pregame, I was given the chance to get to the arena a couple hours before the game and right when I arrived I checked the court to see one man, and one man only, working on his craft. That man was, as I’m sure you can guess, Wagler, and it was what he was doing that really caught my eye. It was game reps. All Wagler was doing for the entirety of his warmup was working on actions that would benefit him in the game. Sprinting to spots, attacking, kicking out, relocating, working on pick-and-roll passing, movement shooting — it was all there. Because of this, it came as no surprise to me that he did what he did in the game, finishing with 22 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks. In the postgame interviews he was just as mature as his game too, giving humble yet confident answers. After that game I left thinking that Wagler was a lottery lock, assuming that it was the highest I’d ever get on him. But then came the Kylan Boswell injury, which forced Brad Underwood to put the ball into the hands of the true freshman, trusting him as his lead and primary creator. Most players in Wagler’s spot would have struggled or, at worst, gone through some growing pains. To that I say he isn’t most players, because my God did Wagler level up.

Over that stretch of games he posted averages of 26.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists a game, doing so whilst shooting 53.7% from three and getting to the line nearly 10 times a game. Video game numbers. Over this stretch, Wagler had multiple marquee performances, including a 46-point game in a win at Mackey, 23 in the second half in a win over Nebraska and a 34-point outing in an overtime loss to Wisconsin. He did have some slip-ups following this stretch, as Boswell’s return threw a bit of a wrench into the momentum he had built. However, unsurprisingly, Wagler and the rest of the Fighting Illini found their groove once again come tournament time, storming their way to a Final Four appearance. In the tournament, Wagler was without a doubt Illinois’ best player, averaging 18.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.6 stocks a game. His offensive numbers may not have been as eye-popping as they were at times in the past, but Wagler showed even more layers to his game than previously, upping his defensive intensity and falling into whatever mold Underwood needed him in. Illinois did, of course, fall short in the end, but the run to the big dance was nothing short of special and perfectly encapsulated what was an amazing season from the stellar freshman.

Defense:

Typically I start player profiles by outlining a guy’s offensive skillset and what makes him stand out on that end. In Wagler’s case, a lot of people are probably confused as to why I’m not starting there, as it is without a doubt his money-maker. However, I chose to start this breakdown with the defensive side of the ball solely because I have a lot to get off my chest about his defensive tape. Let’s get the big stuff out of the way first: I don’t think Wagler is a bad defender. I understand that he was not perfect last year and has a lot to improve upon, all of which I will get to. However, I feel as if people took his poor stock rates as the gospel that preaches for his entire defensive repertoire, and that is something I can’t get behind.

Video via: No Ceilings NBA

The way I see it, Wagler projects as a solid, scheme-dependent team defender who fits into the flow and doesn’t stick out. The biggest reason I believe this is his size, which gives him a great baseline to, at worst, be malleable with the positions he can guard. Another reason I think this is because he did it last year. Despite all the hoopla surrounding his name and everyone calling him an awful defender, Wagler still posted a -2.4 DRAPM and a 2.8 DBPM. Neither of those numbers are poignant enough to flip a narrative, but at worst they suggest that he has more to offer than many believe. The reason why I think Wagler was able to post that level of value is because of his approach on the defensive side of things. The best thing he does on that end of the floor is keep guys away from the basket. Wagler ranked in the 99th percentile as a rim deterrer, which is wildly impressive considering the amount of time he spent at the point of attack. Along with keeping guys away from the basket, Wagler simply makes it more difficult for them to hit shots over him. Opponents shot 0.7% worse on two-point attempts when guarded by him and 1.1% worse on three-point attempts. It also isn’t any secret as to how Wagler is able to do what he does. He is a risk-averse defender. This alone can be proven by his 1.7% steal rate, 1.3% block rate and negative stock-to-foul ratio, all of which confirm the hypothesis I just laid out. The tape backs it up too, as Wagler’s approach to the defensive side of the basketball is evidently tame. Rarely will he leap out of position to make a play on the ball or leave an assignment in hopes of creating an event. Rather, he focuses on the ball and man, remaining in the right position and staying within the flow of things. I do think that part of why he was that tame falls on Underwood and his coaching style, which is focused on speeding things up on offense and slowing opposing teams down on defense. As a result, the entire Illinois team took a more careful approach on that end, trying their best to force difficult shots on the perimeter and funnel the drives they did allow into their plethora of rim protectors. That scheme alone may not be the most glamorous or fun to watch, but it undoubtedly worked in their favor, as evidenced by their success in March.

However, the points of the year where I thought Wagler was most impressive came at the start and end of his freshman season. I already spoke on how I felt he elevated himself as a defender on the biggest stage, playing more aggressively, confidently and intensely, which resulted in a bit more production as well. At the start of the year, however, Wagler had a lesser burden on offense and was tasked with a bigger role on defense. Those games may have brought some inconsistency, particularly on the offensive end, but I thought Wagler’s defense was truly great. The Texas Tech game in particular stands out to me. Tech, of course, had quite the point guard last year in Christian Anderson, who Wagler was tasked with guarding for a fair majority of that game. Although Anderson was able to dish out 11 assists, the majority of which were to big fella JT Toppin — who I love and am hoping recovers well — he was shut off as a scorer. It was just 8 points on 33.3% shooting from the field and 0% from three that Anderson produced that day, and a large part of his struggles can be attributed to Wagler. In fact, that was likely the main reason he played 35 minutes that game despite not being his typical self on the offensive end.

Graphic via: TawnyPark Metrics

With all this said, I am not oblivious to Wagler’s flaws as a defender, which stem well beyond just not being aggressive. The feet are obviously an issue and likely always will be. Wagler has never been and likely never will be a Davion Mitchell-type defender who can sit on opposing ball handlers’ hips for the duration of a possession and never give up an inch. As a result, he is forced to give up more space to opposing players, which allows them to create angles and put him on his heels. In order to counteract this, Wagler has to improve his understanding of how to cut off angles and use his hands. Oftentimes when he is beaten, Wagler will choose to stay glued to the hip of his opponent rather than trying to beat them to a spot. This worked well at the college level and specifically within his team’s structure, which exploited other teams’ lack of floor spacing by placing two 7-footers at the rim who could clean up what others left behind. Sadly for Wagler, unless he lands in San Antonio, he won’t have that same luxury and will have to clean up that aspect of his game. Part of how he’s going to have to go about doing that is, like I mentioned, understanding how to use his hands. Wagler isn’t going to have the footspeed to recover and cut off driving lanes like other guards with this same issue. As a result, he will have to figure out how and when to throw subtle jabs and checks into drivers’ hips to slow their momentum without getting fouled. Technically, hand-checking is illegal, but there is no doubt that players around the NBA get away with it when disguising it properly. Call it cheap, call it dirty, it doesn’t matter. It’s part of the game that players who don’t have elite physical traits are forced to utilize.

Wagler improving his frame will also do wonders for his NBA projection as a defender. As of now, he is often not rewarded even when he puts himself in good positions, as bigger, more developed players are often able to barrel right through him. Adding that extra weight, along with doing a better job of sinking into his stance, will help mask that issue and allow him to guard a larger variety of spots. That added versatility is likely going to have to be the backbone of Wagler’s career as a defender. Without it, he will be doomed to being stuck in a purgatory of not being fast enough to keep up with guards and not strong enough to battle with wings. If he adds the strength, along with cleaning up some technique, it will allow whatever team he lands with to be more creative with how they use him and allow his positional size to work in his favor. For now, his fit is iffy, but if Wagler improves on the things I mentioned, I could very well foresee him being an average to slightly above-average defender at the NBA level.

Offense:

Now that I have decluttered the mess that is Wagler’s defensive projection, I can sink in and relax as I enjoy the astonishing offensive talent that he possesses. Obviously, Wagler is not without flaws on this end, but it's hard not to love what he did last season, especially considering he seemed to keep getting better as the year went on. Wagler is incredibly nuanced as a creator and is multi-faceted in numerous aspects of his game. Whether it's the three-level scoring potential or flashes of nuanced playmaking, Wagler has serious intrigue as an All-NBA-level talent, largely sparked by who he is on this end of the floor.

Scoring:

Kicking things off on this side of the ball, what better place to start than the most valuable thing any player can do on a basketball court: score the basketball. In Wagler’s case, it’s arguably his best and most effective trait. For anyone who has watched him play, it’s clear that what makes him so special as a scorer is his outside shooting ability — which is arguably the best in the class. Last season, Wagler shot 40.6% from three on 10.6 attempts per 100 possessions, with 51.7% of those makes being self-created. He had the entire bag of tricks on display all year, showcasing amazing balance that made everything from step-backs, pull-ups and movement shooting look just as effortless as catch-and-shoot attempts. It wasn’t just college threes that he attempted and converted either, as Wagler shot 43.5% on his attempts from 25-27 feet, which is roughly the average range of an NBA three, suggesting the translation for him won’t be difficult. His shot itself is pretty too, combining a quick release with a sturdy base, all culminating in a smooth flick at the end. My only gripe with his shot is that his release is a bit out in front of him due to the nature of him having more of a push shot. However, getting his shot off with or without a contest hasn’t seemed to be an issue for him yet, so for now I will remain wildly encouraged. The midrange numbers, however, aren’t as glamorous.

Wagler shot just 34.7% on short midrange shots and 35.3% on long midrange shots, neither of which are very encouraging. However, I am personally not as pessimistic about his in-between game as most are due to the context in which most of those shots came. For one, he didn’t take many, attempting just 4.5 per 100 possessions — a mark much lower than his rim and three-point volume. On top of that, most of his midrange shots were what I would call last-ditch attempts taken as a heave of sorts toward the end of shot clocks. It was a lot of tough pull-ups, contested fadeaways and, overall, a flat-out difficult shot diet. I’m not one to speculate, but from what I gathered as an outsider, it didn’t seem as if Underwood encouraged his players to shoot midrange shots, focusing more on getting threes and rim attempts. That is a strategy that more and more college basketball teams are leaning on in the modern, analytically driven era. But I wouldn’t have minded a few more midrange pull-ups for Wagler in order to take some pressure off himself as a driver — which, as many know, is the gripe with his offensive game.

Video via: No Ceilings NBA

For me personally, I don’t find the rim-finishing issues to be as severe as others make them out to be. I understand that the raw 57.5% he shot at the rim last season is far from an elite number, but when given the full context of his shot profile at the basket, things begin to look a bit more compelling. For one, he got to the rim at a fairly high rate, especially considering his athletic limitations. Wagler generated 7.5 rim attempts per 100 possessions, 3.7 of which were self-created, putting him in the 83rd percentile of guard prospects. Once there, he obviously struggled to finish, including the now-infamous zero-dunks stat that everyone loves to throw around. However, despite struggling to finish at the rim, Wagler got to the free-throw line a lot — like, 47.6% of his shots at the rim resulting in free-throw attempts a lot. Getting to the line is a process for him, but foul drawing is a legitimate skill and a valuable one at that. Wagler is able to get himself quality looks at the basket and draw fouls not by being reckless or flopping relentlessly. Rather, he combines pace, footwork and an understanding of angles to put himself in the right spots. One of my favorite traits that Wagler has is this innate ability to use his outside shot as a weapon for his drives, seemingly teasing defenders into closing out too hard or jumping on a shot fake, which in turn creates an advantage for him as a driver. Once around that player, Wagler is great at holding his driving angles despite being so thin-framed, even using bumps and shoulder checks to create space along the way. Obviously, the finishing alone will have to improve, but luckily for Wagler, I think it’s possible. A lot of his misses came as a result of him doing too much, either by contorting in the air to hunt an absent angle or trying to get the ball to a spot he physically couldn’t reach. I think adding some floater touch will do wonders for Wagler’s finishing, as having that added refinement in the intermediate area will force rim protectors to come out and meet him farther from the basket. Because of this, more space is created for Wagler to find angles, making his life around the rim much easier. Nonetheless, even without a truly well-rounded scoring arsenal, Wagler was still able to be efficient in totality, posting a 59.6% true shooting percentage. Having that as a baseline entering the league while knowing there is still so much room to improve is exactly why I find Wagler to be one of, if not the most potent scorers in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Playmaking:

The playmaking aspect of Wagler’s game is likely going to be the separating factor between whether he can be a point guard at the next level or if he will have to resort to a more off-ball-centric role. In either case, I think he will return high-end value because that’s just the raw talent I believe him to be. However, if Wagler were to reach the All-NBA upside that I believe he has, a large part of it would likely be due to continued growth in this aspect of his game. Luckily, Wagler has already shown growth over the past year, showcasing steady development in both his ability to protect the ball and dish it out to others. I would by no means classify him as a game-breaking passer, rather a connector who is advanced in certain areas. But considering the path he is on, I have no reason to think he can’t continue to improve as time progresses.

Video via: No Ceilings NBA

The biggest thing I gathered as to why Wagler’s passing improved so much throughout the season actually had little to do with his passing. The part of his game that opened up his passing the most was actually his scoring threat, as the added defensive attention created opportunities that weren’t there prior. As the season went on, Wagler drew more defensive attention and became better equipped to counter it. But even with all that in mind, decision-making is the biggest factor in a player’s passing ability, and that’s a component of Wagler’s game that is undoubtedly ahead of the curve. For one, he’s extremely turnover-averse. Despite handling a 25.7% usage rate, Wagler posted just a 12.5% turnover rate and a 2.4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Even though he’s thin and isn’t the most natural point guard, Wagler didn’t get bullied. He was able to absorb the bumps and physicality that opposing defenses threw his way. Impressive stuff for a freshman if you ask me.

Beyond just protecting the ball, Wagler was also advanced as a passer, especially in manufactured situations. In transition and ball-screen situations is where he was at his best, using the space he had completely to his advantage. Ball-screen sets in particular are where I loved his passing, as he seemed to always make the right decision. Of course, Wagler had the benefit of almost everyone he shared the floor with being a respectable outside shooter, a luxury most other guards in the country don’t have. However, being able to dissect a well-spaced floor is a great trait to have, and it’s one that Wagler absolutely possesses. Everything from lobs to dump-offs was easy work for him, toying with the defenders in front of him en route to the basket. He also does an amazing job of stopping his momentum and playing off two feet, giving himself time to both survey the floor and create passing angles. Wagler has elite anticipation as a drive-and-kick passer as well, reading where defenses are going and making the pass he deems fit.

Live-dribble passing is an area that I would like to see him improve in, however, as lacking it does limit him in some ways. For one, it negates some of the advantages his size provides, as not being able to quickly whip passes over defenders’ heads limits the edge he inherently has. However, Wagler did show some progression in this department, particularly when hitting the pop man. It wasn’t all the time, but Wagler seemed to build some chemistry with his big men as the season went on, improving the timing of when they wanted the ball on the perimeter. Obviously, a lot of that feel will have to be rebuilt at the next level with a new system and teammates, but nonetheless, the history of development is there.

NBA Projection:

If for whatever reason you couldn’t tell by now, I’ll once again say it loud and proud: I am a HUGE fan of Keaton Wagler. As I mentioned earlier, he currently finds himself firmly in the top four on my board, and I think he has a really good chance of finishing in the top three. It’s rare to find prospects who can couple rapid development with plus positional size and a well-rounded skill set, all at the ripe age of 19. Not to mention, a lot of his flaws are very fixable. Things like adding weight, cleaning up technique and moving his shot touch inward — which is odd because it’s typically the other way around — will all benefit him immensely at the next level.

There is a good chance that Wagler struggles early on, as I can definitely foresee a world where the physical and athletic leap to the NBA proves overwhelming. However, he has enough skills between his playmaking, shooting and rebounding — something I didn’t even mention that he excels at — that I just can’t foresee a world where he doesn’t carve out a role early on that expands as he gets more accustomed to the NBA level. Even if it is a more off-ball centric role where he is shrunk into the box of three and D in his early days, I still think he will find ways to make an impact. Wagler likely will hit a rookie wall or sophomore slump too, as once defenses figure him out, he will be forced to adjust. However, given his track record, I have no reason to believe that he won’t do just that. In short, he is a high-floor, high-ceiling prospect who screams NBA star when I watch him. It may be a risk to some, but if I were the Clippers at five — hell, even the Bulls at four — I would be jumping all over the opportunity to bring Wagler into my program and build for the future. The future’s guard and one of my favorite prospects I’ve ever gotten to evaluate: Keaton fricking Wagler.

From myself and the Draftstack team, we hope you enjoy!

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The Lottery | 1-14

1- Cam Boozer

From: Duke

Age: 19

Position: Power Forward / Center

Height: 6’9”

Weight: 235 lbs

Wingspan: 7’1.5”

2- AJ Dybantsa

From: BYU

Age: 19

Position: Small Forward / Power Forward

Height: 6’9”

Weight: 210 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0”

3- Darryn Peterson

From: Kansas

Age: 19

Position: Point Guard / Shooting Guard

Height: 6’6’“

Weight: 195 lbs

Wingspan: 6’9.75”

4- Caleb Wilson

From: UNC

Age: 19

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’9”

Weight: 195 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0.25”

5- Keaton Wagler

From: Illinois

Age: 19

Position: Shooting Guard / Point Guard

Height: 6’6”

Weight: 185 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6.25”

6- Ebuka Okorie

From: Stanford

Age: 19

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’1”

Weight: 186 lbs

Wingspan: 6’7.75

7- Aday Mara

From: Michigan

Age: 21

Position: Center

Height: 7’3.00”

Weight: 255.8 lbs

Wingspan: 7’6.00”

8- Yaxel Lendeborg

From: Michigan

Age: 23

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’8.75”

Weight: 241.4 lbs

Wingspan: 7’3.25”

9- Mikel Brown Jr

From: Louisville

Age: 20

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’5”

Weight: 190 lbs

Wingspan: 6’7.5”

10- Brayden Burries

From: Arizona

Age: 19

Position: Shooting Guard

Height: 6’3.75”

Weight: 215.4 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6.00”

11- Morez Johnson Jr.

From: Michigan

Age: 20

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’9.00”

Weight: 250.6 lbs

Wingspan: 7’3.50”

12- Christian Anderson

From: Texas Tech

Age: 20

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’3.0”

Weight: 180.4 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6.25”

13- Bennett Stirtz

From: Iowa

Age: 22

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 190 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6.0”

14- Cameron Carr

From: Baylor

Age: 21

Position: Shooting Guard

Height: 6’4.50”

Weight: 184.4 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0.75”

The First Round | 15-30

15- Kingston Flemings

From: Houston

Age: 19

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’3.50”

Weight: 183.4 lbs

Wingspan: 6’3.50”

16- Bruce Thornton

From: Ohio State

Age: 23

Position: Guard

Height: 6’0”

Weight: 223 lbs

Wingspan: 6’5”

17- Richie Saunders

From: BYU

Age: 24

Position: Shooting Guard

Height: 6’5.00”

Weight: 204.8 lbs

Wingspan: 6’8.75”

18- Allen Graves

From: Santa Clara

Age: 19

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’7.75”

Weight: 225.6 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0.00”

19- Baba Miller

From: Cincinnati

Age: 22

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’10.50”

Weight: 208.2 lbs

Wingspan: 7’1.75”

20- Dailyn Swain

From: Texas

Age: 20

Position: Shooting Guard / Small Forward

Height: 6’8”

Weight: 225 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10

21- Tarris Reed Jr.

From: UConn

Age: 22

Position: Center

Height: 6’9.75”

Weight: 263.6 lbs

Wingspan: 7’4.25”

22- Hannes Steinbach

From: Washington

Age: 20

Position: Forward

Height: 6’10.25”

Weight: 248.0 lbs

Wingspan: 7’2.25”

23- Ryan Conwell

From: Louisville

Age: 22

Position: Shooting Guard

Height: 6’4.00”

Weight: 214.8 lbs

Wingspan: 6’7.00”

24- Tyler Nickel

From: Vanderbilt

Age: 22

Position: Small Forward

Height: 6’6.00”

Weight: 217.4 lbs

Wingspan: 6’8.50”

25- Joshua Jefferson

From: Iowa State

Age: 22

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’9”

Weight: 240.2 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10.75”

26- Darius Acuff Jr.

From: Arkansas

Age: 19

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’2.00”

Weight: 185.8 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6.50”

27- Jayden Quaintance

From: Kentucky

Age: 18

Position: Center

Height: 6’9.00”

Weight: 253.4 lbs

Wingspan: 7’5.25”

28- Jaden Bradley

From: Arizona

Age: 22

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’3.0”

Weight: 205.4 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6.25”

29- Chris Cenac Jr.

From: Houston

Age: 18

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’11”

Weight: 239.6 lbs

Wingspan: 7’5.00”

30- Henri Veesar

From: North Carolina

Age: 22

Position: Center

Height: 7’0”

Weight: 225 lbs

Wingspan: 7’2”

The Second Round | 31-60

31- Ugonna Onyeso

From: Virginia

Age: 21

Position: Center

Height: 6’11.00”

Weight: 236.8 lbs

Wingspan: 7’4.75”

32- Donovan Atwell

From: Texas Tech

Age: 23

Position: Shooting Guard

Height: 6’5”

Weight: 200 lbs

Wingspan: 6’9”

33- Alex Karaban

From: UConn

Age: 23

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’6.75”

Weight: 225.2 lbs

Wingspan: 6’11.00”

34- Zuby Ejiofor

From: St. John’s

Age: 22

Position: Center

Height: 6’7.50”

Weight: 245.2 lbs

Wingspan: 7’2.00”

35- Trevon Brazile

From: Arkansas

Age: 23

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’9.50”

Weight: 225.6 lbs

Wingspan: 7’3.75”

36- Nate Bittle

From: Oregon

Age: 23

Position: Center / Power Forward

Height: 6’11.5”

Weight: 253.8 lbs

Wingspan: 7’6”

37- Labaron Philon Jr.

From: Alabama

Age: 20

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’2.50”

Weight: 176.2 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6.25”

38- Nate Ament

From: Tennessee

Age: 19

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’9.50”

Weight: 210.8 lbs

Wingspan: 6’11.50”

39- Karim Lopez

From: New Zealand

Age: 19

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’8.25”

Weight: 221.8 lbs

Wingspan: 6’11.50”

40- Koa Peat

From: Arizona

Age: 19

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’7.00”

Weight: 245.0 lbs

Wingspan: 6’11.25”

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41- Malique Lewis

From: South East Melbourne Phoenix (NBL)

Age: 20

Position: Forward

Height: 6’8”

Weight: 209 lbs

Wingspan: 7’1”

42- Toby Harris

From: Iona

Age: 23

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’8”

Weight: 225 lbs

Wingspan: 6’11”

43- Isaiah Evans

From: Duke

Age: 20

Position: Shooting Guard

Height: 6’5.50”

Weight: 186.0 lbs

Wingspan: 6’8.75”

44- Meleek Thomas

From: Arkansas

Age: 19

Position: Shooting Guard / Point Guard

Height: 6’3”

Weight: 178 lbs

Wingspan: 6’6”

45- Sergio De Larrea

From: Valencia (Spain)

Age: 20

Position: Point Guard / Shooting Guard

Height: 6’6”

Weight: 198 lbs

Wingspan: 6’9

46- Jack Kayil

From:ALBA Berlin (Germany)

Age: 20

Position: Guard

Height: 6’3.5”

Weight: 175 lbs

Wingspan: 6’5.75”

47- Braden Smith

From: Purdue

Age: 22

Position: Point Guard

Height: 5’10.25”

Weight: 166.6 lbs

Wingspan: 6’3.25”

48- Dillon Mitchell

From: St. John’s

Age: 22

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’6.75”

Weight: 202.2 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10.50”

49- Emmanuel Sharp

From: Houston

Age: 22

Position: Shooting Guard

Height: 6’2.75”

Weight: 208.4 lbs

Wingspan: 6’3.00”

50- Felix Okpara

From: Tennessee

Age: 22

Position: Center

Height: 6’10.00”

Weight: 237.4 lbs

Wingspan: 7’2.00”

51- Ja’Kobi Gillespie

From: Tennessee

Age: 22

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’1”

Weight: 181.8 lbs

Wingspan: 6’4.00”

52- Bryce Hopkins

From: St. John’s

Age: 24

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’6.00”

Weight: 218.8 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10.50”

53- Nick Martinelli

From: Northwestern

Age: 22

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’6.50”

Weight: 223.6 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10.00”

54- Maliq Brown

From: Duke

Age: 22

Position: Center

Height: 6’8.00”

Weight: 216.6 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0.75”

55- Kylan Boswell

From: Illinois

Age: 21

Position: Point Guard

Height: 6’1.25”

Weight: 226.0 lbs

Wingspan: 6’7.00”

56- Keyshawn Hall

From: Auburn

Age: 23

Position: Small Forward

Height: 6’6.00”

Weight: 227.4 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10.25”

57- Trey Kaufman-Renn

From: Purdue

Age: 23

Position: Power Forward

Height: 6’9”

Weight: 241.2 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10.50”

58- Michael Ajayi

From: Butler

Age: 23

Position: Forward

Height: 6’7”

Weight: 235 lbs

Wingspan: 7’0.75”

59- Quadir Copeland

From: NC State

Age: 23

Position: Guard

Height: 6’6”

Weight: 203 lbs

Wingspan: 6’10”

60- Jaron Pierre Jr.

From: SMU

Age: 23

Position: Guard / Wing

Height: 6’5”

Weight: 210 lbs

Wingspan: 6’8.5”

It could be argued that no player in the country took a bigger leap this season than Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr, who spent his freshman season playing an off-the-bench sparkplug role for an average Illinois team. He hit the transfer portal soon after his freshman year came to an end, and following a strong showing in last summer’s FIBA U19 World Cup, he debuted with a Wolverines squad that would eventually dominate on their way to a national championship. Now, the former backup will likely be selected in the upcoming NBA Draft’s lottery alongside two of his Michigan frontcourt-mates, as his sophomore campaign not only proved that he’s a fantastic college contributor, but also a highly coveted professional prospect. Today, I want to break down Johnson’s game in its entirety, analyzing every individual element of his skillset while considering his strengths, weaknesses, ceiling, and floor. With all of that being said, let’s jump into it.

Player Profile:

Morez Johnson Jr is a 6’10” and 250lb power forward from Riverdale, Illinois who played the first three years of his high school career with St. Rita of Cascia High School before transferring to Thornton Township High School for his senior campaign. As a junior with St. Rita, he was named an Illinois first-team all-state selectee, alongside notable names such as Jeremy Fears Jr, Cam Christie, Dai Dai Ames, and Owen Freeman. As a senior with Thornton Township, he posted averages of 17.2 points per game, 14.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 3.4 blocks, and 2.5 steals on shooting splits of 50% from the field, 34% from beyond the arc, and 66% from the free-throw line. These averages, along with a 29-5 record, were good enough for Johnson to be named Illinois Mr. Basketball following his senior season.

By the end of his high school career, Johnson was a consensus four-star and top 30 recruit in the class of 2024. However, he committed to Illinois, his home state program, before the beginning of his sophomore season. He chose the Fighting Illini over Florida, Texas, Ohio State, Providence, Nebraska, and Iowa, among others. Despite being the second highest-ranked recruit in Illinois’ 2024 class, he spent most of his freshman season coming off the bench, starting only seven games (to be fair, the top-ranked recruit, Will Riley, only started nine games). In his 17.7 minutes per game, he averaged 7 points, 6.7 rebounds, .3 assists, 1.1 blocks, and .4 steals on splits of 64.2% from the field and 61.8% from the charity stripe (he did not attempt a three). Despite a promising start to his college career, he entered the transfer portal after season’s end, eventually committing to Michigan and head coach Dusty May.

In-between his freshman and sophomore seasons, he’d suit up for the United States as they travelled to Switzerland for the 2025 FIBA U19 World Cup, starting six of the team’s seven games at that event. There, he averaged 9.4 points per game, 6.4 rebounds, .6 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1 steal on splits of 58.5% from the field and 78.3% from the free-throw line (as well as going 0/1 from three). He then landed in Ann Arbor, where he’d earn a starting spot for one of the best rosters in the country. Across forty games, in which he played 25.1 minutes per contest, he’d average 13.1 points per game, 7.3 rebounds, .3 assists, 1.1 blocks, and .7 steals on shooting splits of 62.3% from the field, 34.3% from beyond the arc, and 78.2% from the free-throw line. He made an immense two-way impact for the Wolverines, who would eventually hoist the national championship trophy to end their season.

Interior Scoring:

At-the-rim scoring is by far Johnson’s strongest scoring level, as his 72.9% conversion rate on rim attempts is an elite mark for a non-center (or any player, really). Not only is he efficient from close-range, but he’s also versatile, able to score from this level in a myriad of ways. Because of his size, strength, and athleticism, he’s a naturally proficient play finisher and off-ball operative, but he also flashed some self-creation ability this past season. Simply because his interior scoring is already so developed, I wouldn’t say that I’m overly intrigued by his long-term projection in this area, but I am confident that he’ll be able to immediately utilize these skills to impact winning for whatever organization he suits up for next season.

As far as immediate translation is concerned, Johnson’s strongest at-the-rim scoring trait will be his play finishing. For a forward, he’s an incredibly active off-ball mover, constantly setting screens, crashing the glass, and applying pressure to the rim. When he picks up momentum coming downhill, there’s really nothing a defender can do to stop him, as he’s a massive individual with legitimate vertical leaping ability. That said, he usually doesn’t dunk over opponents (mostly because they usually get out of the way), instead opting to use strong mid-air body control to avoid interior defenders before throwing down emphatic dunks. Not only that, but he’s also a strong under- and around-the-rim finisher, showcasing strong spatial awareness and good touch while finishing on both sides of the rim.

He’s also an excellent lob finisher, a skill that proved to be important for a Michigan team that fielded multiple strong lob passers. His ability to not only catch lobs for dunks but also bring them down before going back up for easy layups allows his teammates to throw him lobs under more circumstances. He’s great at sealing off his defender before elevating vertically to receive the pass, and his hands are fantastic. I don’t know if his lob diet will be this diverse once he reaches the league, but it’s an interesting wrinkle for an already very effective part of his game.

While Johnson is certainly more efficient as an off-ball operative, he’s also a very strong self-creator when he receives the ball in the post. Because of his incredible strength, he was able to back down anyone he matched up against this past season, and once he finds good court position under the rim, he’s almost always going to finish the layup. He’s also capable of facing up his defender, putting the ball on the floor, and finishing the layup no matter the angle of the attempt. His only flaws here are that he’ll occasionally turn the ball over if he dribbles it more than two or three times, and he forces the issue too often once double- and triple-teams meet him at the rim. He did show some dribble-drive flashes, but I don’t expect that to be a major part of his inside scoring game anytime soon.

There’s a strange type of interior attempt that makes up a decent chunk of Johnson’s shot diet from this level, and I’ve labeled them “brute force” layups. They fall somewhere in-between self-created and off-ball attempts, as most of the time they follow a pass and no dribbles, but he does take a single dribble here and there. On these attempts, he powers through one or more defenders, absorbs a ton of contact, and often draws a foul in the process. He also shows off his elite balance and poise here, as he’s able to land, immediately get harassed by multiple defenders, and still finish the layup. These weren’t part of Michigan’s game plan, and are more so found via impromptu opportunities, but I think he’ll continue to do this in the future.

Mid-Range Scoring:

As of today, Johnson isn’t a very good mid-range scorer, but he has grown from this level, and I expect him to continue developing his mid-range game moving forward. He only attempts 2.8 mid-range shots every 100 possessions, and made only 35.8% of those shots this year, but that’s almost double the volume from his freshman season. I’d be shocked if he ever develops a super strong traditional mid-range game (even though he did try his hand at these attempts this year), but I do think he could incorporate more push shots, hook shots, and floaters into his game as he progresses through his career.

I do find it strange that push shots aren’t already a bigger part of his game, but I guess when you’re able to get at-the-rim attempts at-will, you’ll take those instead. He does seem to have legitimate touch, something that was made even more apparent this year as he took a step up in three-point and free-throw shooting. By strengthening this element of his game and increasing his volume in the process, he’ll be able to better attack bigger NBA defenses who may be able to occasionally match his strength. This never has to be something he falls back on, especially if he continues to get better as an outside shooter, but it would help diversify his game in a very positive way.

As I mentioned, Johnson did try his hand at attempting traditional mid-range jumpers this season, but this was a rarity. I don’t expect this to be a part of his game anytime soon. However, he barely attempted these shots, and they didn’t look too shabby when he threw them up. Because he so easily dislodges defenders on his post-ups, he’s actually able to create quite a bit of space for turnaround jumpers. That said, his poor percentage from this level indicates that he has quite a bit of work to do before he’ll possess the comfort, confidence, and overall feel necessary to rely on this scoring level, but the foundation is intriguing to say the least.

Outside Shooting:

For a guy who didn’t attempt a single three during his freshman season and only one in the FIBA U19 World Cup, he really doesn’t look too far away from being a decent outside shooter. He did shoot 34% from long-range during his senior year of high school, and that was on 1.5 attempts per game, so this development wasn’t totally unexpected. He only attempted .9 attempts per game this year, equating to 1.9 attempts per 100 possessions, but that’s a far greater number than many expected to see from him coming into the year. In my opinion, his mechanics look smooth enough for him to eventually develop into a competent option from long-range.

Obviously, Johnson’s threes come off-the-catch, but I was surprised to see that they usually didn’t come on pick-and-pop possessions. Most of the time, he saw open threes on kickout or swing passes when his defender dropped in to help defend the paint. Opponents were willing to leave him open from the perimeter, especially earlier in the season, but by season’s end he had proven capable of knocking down these attempts. He does seem to have a small hitch in his shot motion, but it’s nothing too dramatic. With practice and repetition, he could very well turn into a solid three-point shooter, forcing defenders to meet him on the perimeter, opening up the floor for his teammates and allowing him to more frequently try his hand at getting downhill.

Passing & Playmaking:

Because he found himself double-teamed in the post incredibly often, Johnson was able to take a step up as a passer and all-around decision maker during his sophomore season. This is another area where he proved capable during his dominant senior season at Thornton Township, but an area that very few expected much from after a freshman season where he was, at most, a tertiary ball mover. This isn’t to say that he was a dominant pass-first offensive hub this season; he averaged only 1.2 assists per game, but his ability to utilize his passing game to get out of sticky situations while making the game easier for his teammates will surely translate to the league.

In addition to low post kickouts, which made up a large portion of his assist total, he also found open teammates following offensive rebounds, of which he grabbed a ton (more on that later). Rebounds are an excellent playmaking opportunity, as opposing defenses tend to be in a scramble, leading to open teammates from beyond the arc and inside. Assuming that he’ll maintain his dominant rebounding in the league, one could then assume that he’ll continue to showcase his passing in the same way. The one issue I saw from him in this department is his tendency to throw the ball either over his teammate or high to the point where they can’t take an in-rhythm jumper. Perhaps he’s simply too strong for his own good, but he’ll have to improve his accuracy, as NBA defenders are excellent at closing out to shooters.

Mostly because he rarely handles the ball on the perimeter, he doesn’t usually find teammates on the interior. However, much in the same way that offensive rebounds often lead to easy passes out to open shooters; he was also able to find cutting teammates for open looks at the rim. This was far less common, but in these limited instances we get to see his quick decision making at work, and I think he looks far more comfortable in these situations than most of his frontcourt contemporaries. It’s worth noting that he does have a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (1.2:1.3), but that’s not uncommon for players who aren’t regularly asked to play make for others. Also, 1.3 turnovers is nothing to worry about, especially for a player who sees help defenders as often as Johnson does.

Defense & Rebounding:

While Johnson does have a very effective and translatable offensive game, one could argue that his value primarily lies in his defensive impact, as he’s one of the better all-around defenders in this year’s draft class. His 4.4 DBPM is one of the best marks in the class, with the players ahead of him either being a few years older, blue-chip freshmen, or defense-first players. Among sophomores and freshmen in this class, he ranks fifth in that all-encompassing stat. That said, he does a few things better than many of those players, especially as a rebounder, and I expect his impact on this end of the floor to be felt immediately once he steps foot on an NBA court.

Johnson isn’t a primary rim protector, but he’s an explosive secondary help option who flies around the floor, both in the half and open court, for emphatic swats. He’s not only a defensive playmaker; he’s a defensive event creator, a true momentum swinger who can sap an opponent of his confidence by sending his shot into the stands. It makes it even more impressive that he usually does this on the run, perfectly timing his steps and his leap to end up at the right place at the right time. His 4.8% block percentage is impressive, and I expect his rim protection numbers to remain mostly the same moving forward seeing that he spent his sophomore season playing alongside an NBA-caliber primary rim protector in Aday Mara.

What makes Johnson a truly special defender is his ability to switch onto multiple positions (at least at the college level) and hold his own. This doesn’t usually result in blocks, but it’ll occur on occasion when a smaller player (or Robbie Avila) tries to attempt a pull-up jumper after he switches onto them. He’s an excellent lateral mover capable of covering enough ground to keep up with much quicker opponents, and I see no reason why this wouldn’t continue to be the case in the league. Sure, he may not be able to defend NBA point guards, but I like his odds against wings, forwards, and centers.

Something that he doesn’t do particularly well is generate steals, despite his ability to match up against most opponents. He’s very conservative when it comes to this aspect of the game, rarely attempting to leap passing lanes or poke balls loose. Instead, he allows his matchup to receive the ball, as he likes his odds of defending them the good ole’ fashioned way. I like how confident he is in his abilities. That said, he’ll still grab a steal from time-to-time, as he does have fast hands and strong defensive instincts. I’m curious to see if he becomes a more eager defensive playmaker as his career progresses and opponents begin to catch up to him from an athletic perspective.

The moment you all have been waiting for: discussion regarding what I think is Johnson’s strongest trait. This is a guy who, as a 6’10” sophomore, was the best rebounder on a team that featured 7’4” Aday Mara and 6’10” elite rebounder Yaxel Lendeborg. His 7.3 rebounds don’t tell the whole story, as he was sharing the court with those two. I honestly think that, had he been the lone elite rebounder on his team, he could have led the country in rebounds this season. He’s great in this aspect of the game for all the reasons we’ve already discussed, such as his size, strength, and athleticism, but he also has an incredible motor and second-to-none timing. He boasted a staggering 12.8% offensive rebounding percentage this season; another stat that doesn’t truly illustrate how dominant he is on the glass because of how stacked his team was.

Not only is he great at gobbling up rebounds, but he’s also great at turning those boards into points for either himself or his teammates. He consistently throws down putback dunks, has a strong feel for tip-ins and non-dunk putbacks, and is able to absorb a ton of contact. As we already mentioned, he’s also an effective passer following an offensive board. All in all, his rebounding alone could get him drafted into the NBA, a reality that makes Johnson all the more enticing for front offices when you consider all of the other things he brings to the table.

Summary:

Before I summarize Johnson’s game, I want to list out any and all of his weaknesses and flaws in order to garner a better understanding of his game in its entirety. Because he does have a rather simple and translatable game, he doesn’t have as many glaring weaknesses as many of his peers. That said, his game also leaves things to be desired from a long-term perspective. What’s most important when it comes to his development is that he views his flaws as areas in need of improvement rather than areas void of potential. Players who do this are often those that eventually rise to the top of the sport.

• Johnson’s ball security in the post when he puts the ball on the floor more than two or three times isn’t the greatest. He sets his sight on the rim, allowing help defenders to poke balls loose. Unless he improves as an overall scorer, he doesn’t need to have the ball in his hands down low for extended periods of time.

• He’s not much of a creator from the perimeter, as he doesn’t have the handle necessary to consistently put together effective downhill drives. Again, until he improves, he probably doesn’t need to put the ball on the floor too much.

• He can sometimes get sped up as a play finisher, putting too much power on his non-dunk at-the-rim attempts when he gets a head full of steam. I think it would serve him well if he got used to coming to a stop and working off two feet on certain play finishing opportunities.

• Despite showing flashes throughout his sophomore season, he needs to quickly improve as a mid-range operative if he wants that to be a prominent part of his game in the future. His touch shot game is more impressive than his traditional jumpers are, and he should prioritize his development from this range in that order.

• While his outside shooting improved drastically this season, I still don’t consider him to be a true three-point shooting prospect, and I’m fairly confident that front offices would agree with me. He needs to fix his slight hitch, increase his volume, and improve his percentage before he’ll be tasked with outside shooting in the league.

• The only glaring flaw that I noticed when studying his passing game is that his kickout passes aren’t very accurate. This was noted in the passing and playmaking section. He often throws the ball far too high on his kickout passes, forcing teammates into tough shots.

• He could afford to be a more aggressive defender and more willing to look for steals. This would be less risky for him than it is for many others considering how good of a recovery rim protector he is. This is the only truly strange aspect of his defensive game.

To summarize Morez Johnson Jr’s game, I’d argue that he’s one of the easier to place players in his draft class. His game is incredibly effective; he was one of the most impactful players in the country this season, but he’s most intriguing because he was able to make that impact without being his team’s first, second, or third scoring option. Sure, he averaged more points than Elliot Cadeau, but the offense was never run through Johnson the way it was run through Lendeborg, Mara, and Cadeau. He was able to make this impact via easily replicated interior offense, all-around versatile defense, and elite glass cleaning. This was made possible because of his strength, size, athleticism, and elite work ethic, traits that will immediately translate to the league.

With that said, what makes Johnson even more intriguing is his burgeoning offensive game. Following a freshman season with Illinois where he wasn’t allowed to stretch his game outside of the paint, he dabbled with mid-range and beyond the arc shot making this year. He was also given the opportunity to showcase his passing and decision-making abilities. Most evaluators aren’t looking at him as a high ceiling player simply because of how simple his game is currently, but there’s no reason to think that a sophomore who has already shown us as much as Johnson has wouldn’t have a lofty ceiling. For these reasons, he’ll make whatever organization that drafts him very happy as soon as he throws on their jersey, but if they’re good enough at their jobs to turn him into the player he projects to be, we could be looking at one of the NBA’s best long-term frontcourt prospects.

For the first time since I started following and covering the NBA Draft, I finally feel like a veteran of the process. Over the past four years, I have considered myself new to the craft, still learning and gathering new info with each and every cycle. However, now that I have witnessed Baba Miller go through a complete four-year cycle that can be described as nothing short of a roller coaster ride, I can finally consider myself an experienced member of the NBA Draft community. Miller’s collegiate basketball story started once upon a time at Florida State all the way back in 2022.

Roller Coaster Career

Entering his freshman season, many considered him to be one of, if not the single most intriguing prospect in the class, hoping to continue to build upon the momentum he had built in overseas play. However, Miller’s freshman season went about as poorly as possible, as eligibility issues plagued the first half of the year, forcing the already extremely raw talent to be thrown directly into the wolves, joining the Seminoles well over halfway through what was already a dysfunctional year. As a result, Miller never found his footing, never asserted himself into draft talks and was forced to return to Florida State for another year.

In his sophomore year, things were better, but not by a lot. Miller averaged 7.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.1 blocks a game, which was solid, but not enough production to mask his vastly underdeveloped skill set. Because of this, Miller chose to enter the transfer portal in search of a new home that both gave him more opportunity, but still presented developmental opportunities. He landed at FAU, which was looking to rebuild a broken roster following the departure of nearly the entire roster that saw them make back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances, one of which was a Final Four run. Miller stepped in and, from day one, it was clear that this was the right spot for him. He posted averages of 11.3 points a game, 7.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.7 blocks, even shooting 34.2% from three — a number I soon came to realize was far too good to be true.

Following his stellar junior year, Miller chose to hit the portal once again, this time transferring up in competition in hopes of finding a sustainable, final home. Eventually, he landed at Cincinnati, which, albeit not the best team in the world — rather far from it — still provided a situation in which Miller could thrive. And well, he thrived, averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage, free throw percentage, free throw rate, usage rate and so many more. In short, it was the dream landing spot for Miller, who was able to both show off the improvements he had made to his game in a controlled environment that could help cover up some areas in which he lacked. Was his season perfect? No. But, at least in my opinion, he did enough to assert himself back into the first-round talks that he was chasing all those years ago.

Physicals

The biggest thing – no pun intended – that stands out when watching Miller on the court is his size. One of his biggest drawbacks when he initially burst into the draft sphere was his lack of mass, an issue that has since plagued him. Miller always had the positional length, something he proved at the combine when he measured in at 6-foot-10 and a half inches barefoot, with a 7-foot-1 and three-quarters of an inch wingspan. What did come as a pleasant surprise, or rather an affable confirmation based on what we have seen over the past year, was his 208.2-pound listing. Miller still isn’t a strength freak who can throw opposing bodies around with ease, but he is much more developed than previously and has continuously shown development over the past couple of years. However, even those measurements on top of his 9-foot-3 standing reach grade out as pretty middle of the pack for a modern NBA center. What doesn’t grade out as average was everything else he did in Chicago.

Numbers via Tawny Park Metrics

Setting aside Miller’s pair of stellar scrimmages, his raw athletic testing may have been just as impressive. His 34.5-inch vertical landed him in the 79th percentile of centers and yet somehow, that was the least impressive thing he did. Miller’s lane agility time of 10.71 seconds put him in the 99th percentile of centers, while his 2.7-second shuttle run put him in the 98th percentile. In simpler terms, dude’s an athletic freak. And when you pair the knowledge of how athletic he is on paper with the things he showed on tape, it’s hard to argue that Miller won’t enter the league as one of the NBA’s most athletic big men. How exactly said athleticism can be utilized is, of course, the giant looming question, but nonetheless, athleticism will likely be the backbone of his career if utilized properly.

Offensive Repertoire

- Positional Playmaking

Beyond Miller’s first-class athletic gifts, the area that I find him to be most polished in offensively is his value as a playmaker. It’s rare to find any player who can be as steady of a hand and make the kind of passes Miller does, let alone one who is pushing 7 feet tall. Miller has consistently shown the ability to manipulate defenses with the live dribble, creating passing lanes to whip passes through. This skill is especially prominent in transition, as the open floor both gives Miller more creative freedom with his dribble, allowing him to counter aggressive defenders who try to get underneath him, along with the fast pace benefiting his mind, giving him the chance to quickly decipher defenses and make the right reads. His passing isn’t just a transition gimmick that will be drowned out in the NBA either. Miller can be used as a legit hub offensively in the half court as well, giving teams freedom to experiment with how they use him. Miller was great at throwing wraparound passes and overhead skip passes, using his length to see over the defense and make plays that other, smaller players just flat out can’t. This allowed him to be a force as a mid-post hub, catching the ball in the middle of the court and allowing the rest of the team to create their own opportunities. Cincinnati would run handoffs over the top of him, set stagger or flare screens away from the ball, doing anything to create a window for Miller to sneak the ball into. They also used him both as a roll man, but also on occasion as a ball handler in the pick and roll. Miller once again was able to utilize his ridiculously polished handle for a player his size to shield off defenders and create opportunities moving downhill. He plays with surprisingly good pace for a player his size too, jailing off defenders and waiting for the right moment to jump to a spot or swing a pass over the top.

It isn’t just anecdotal evidence that I used to come to this conclusion either, as the numbers also back it up. Last season, Miller posted a 23.3% assist rate, which put him in the 98th percentile of centers, along with a 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio that put him in the 89th percentile. Continuing on with the trend of outlier playmaking numbers in all the right ways, Miller posted a 1.0 assist-to-usage rate, a ridiculously impressive feat for a center and a number that put him in the 99th percentile of players at his position. And before anyone attacks me saying “Miller is a power forward, not a center,” I do want to say that I’m not entirely inclined to disagree with you. However, Miller undoubtedly acted as the Bearcats’ center last season, meaning that all of his numbers are compared against other centers in this class. Segueing away from all that and into the not-so-positive part about his playmaking, which as I’m sure you could guess, is the turnovers. Miller does a relatively good job at staying turnover-averse given the role he was asked to play, but I can’t ignore the fact that a 16.2% turnover rate is just flat out too high. With that said, his turnover rate has improved year to year, which is an impressive feat given his gradual rise in usage. However, if Miller truly wants to be the playmaking threat that I tout him as in the NBA, he will need to cut out some of the sloppier mistakes. Things like dribbling off his own foot, making overambitious passes into non-existent windows and flat out errant passes just can’t happen. I do believe that in a smaller role those mistakes will naturally become fewer and farther between, but the question also arises of how he will adjust to NBA athletes. Nonetheless, I like what I see and am widely encouraged by Miller’s long-term outlook as a playmaker.

- Limited Scoring Arsenal

For as much as us evaluators can fall in love with other aspects of players’ games, at the end of the day, the most valuable thing in basketball still is and will always be putting the ball in the basket. The path for 90% of NBA draft prospects to be successful at the next level is predicated on their ability to score, even if it isn’t in high volume. Just having one or two skills to fall back on that force defenders to pay attention to said player when the ball is in their hands is enough for almost every single role player to get by, and in Miller’s case, he has some tools. Unshockingly, the area where the 6-foot-10½ athletic freak is most effective as a scorer is at the basket. In fact, inside of 11 feet, Miller is about as good as they come, shooting 60.9% from within that range, with those attempts accounting for well over half of his shot diet. At the rim, Miller is aggressive and utilizes every gift he has to create finishing opportunities. He is lethal in transition, as previously mentioned, possessing the ability to get to his spots and put consistent pressure on the rim. In the half court, he does most of his work as a roll man, attacking closeouts or operating in the post, all areas in which he excels. Miller does a great job of eating up open spaces on drives to find the right angle, hunting and absorbing contact along the way. Once he gets a head of steam, as I’m sure you can imagine, he is a tough guy not to foul, reflected by his 53.2% free-throw rate in his senior year. As for his post game, Miller keeps things simple, mostly using the post as a weapon when guarded by smaller players, overpowering them and forcing his way to his spots. When it comes to actually finishing at the rim, as I hinted at earlier, Miller is stellar, converting on 65.6% of his at-rim finishes, 57 of which were dunks.

However, as I also previously mentioned, inside 11 feet is the sweet spot for him. Once Miller steps outside of that range, things take a steep turn downhill, a trend that only continues to build the farther he moves back. Miller shot just 20.1% on all of his shot attempts that exceeded 11 feet, a number that is painfully low and will likely have to get fixed before he is ready for NBA minutes. He shot a putrid 19.2% from three as well, doing so on three attempts per 100 possessions. The outside shooting regression of Miller is actually what fascinates me most with his evaluation, as even as recently as last year, he was taking serious strides in the right direction. Say what you will about the competition he was facing at FAU, but he still shot 34.2% from three on nearly six attempts per 100 possessions, a genuinely good mark for a player with his skill set to have. Even if this was an outlier season and he were to regress back to his typical mean, one would think that mean would be closer to a flat 30% rather than sub-20%. Even more confusing, he didn’t make any severe structural changes to his shot. He still has the same wide-based shot where the ball starts on the left side of his body before making its way back to the right as he finishes with a clean flick at the top. His release is high and consistent as well, adding even more confusion to his shooting outlook, which doesn’t seem to have any structural flaws. Overall, the shot is confusing and quite frankly all over the place, but if he can return to where he once was, or even be in the ballpark, I have no doubts that Miller will end up being an impactful scorer given his projected role.

- Overall Value

All in all, I would consider Miller to be a fun offensive tool. Teams will have to get creative with how they use him in the half court, mixing up how he is utilized both as a ball handler and as an off-ball mover. Along with that, I reckon teams will like the idea of using him in the weak-side dunker spot, coaching him up on the right times to duck in or seal in order to claim an easy two points. In transition, however, there is no doubt Miller can be an impact player. His handle and overall creativity will allow him to be trusted with the ball in his hands, and when paired with his plus positional playmaking, teams will no doubt have their fun with how they get him involved. Miller has already proven himself to be an impact player offensively, posting a 2.2 ORAPM and 3.1 OBPM last season, and given his developmental trajectory — minus the shooting — he seems prone to continue making strides and rounding out an already wildly intriguing skill set.

Defensive Weapon

- Interior Presence

It probably goes without saying that interior defense is a must-have for modern NBA centers. Those who lack it, especially rotational bigs, tend to get phased out come playoff time, as if teams can’t trust them to hold down the paint, easy scoring avenues get created for opponents. In Miller’s case, I have pretty much no concern. He isn’t necessarily someone I would trust to anchor an entire defense on high volume, at least not right now, but he has proven to at least be capable of holding his own when tasked with protecting the rim. Miller puts his athletic gifts to perfect use on the inside, covering large sums of ground in short periods of time and showcasing the ability to rise up above the square to swat shots away. Along with that, he possesses great timing, especially when trailing behind drivers, allowing him to meet the basketball before it reaches its apex, which in turn gives him the opportunity to block the ball back in play. That is a very underrated skill to have, as blocking the ball in play allows for transition opportunities to be created, which is obviously much more advantageous than swatting the ball into the third row and resetting the possession. Now, I will say, sometimes a good volleyball-spike block is exactly what’s needed to create energy or build momentum for the entire team, but the majority of the time, just blocking the shot works fine. And even with how impressive his tape is, one could easily argue that his numbers are even better. Last season, Miller posted an impressive 4.2% block rate, along with ranking in the 74th percentile as a rim deterrer. Teams in general were flat-out worse around the basket with Miller on the floor, shooting 2% worse at the rim when sharing the floor with him, a number that puts Miller in the 90th percentile of centers. Impressive stuff for a guy who doesn’t have elite positional size.

What’s even more impressive, however, is Miller’s rebounding ability — a trait that you could argue is his best. Last season, Miller posted a Big 12-best 27.7% defensive rebound rate, putting him in the 88th percentile of big men, along with opposing teams grabbing 1.7 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes with Miller on the floor. That mark puts him in the 82nd percentile, once again reiterating just how impressive that is for a guy who doesn’t have elite size. For typical big men, defensive rebounding isn’t the most valuable trait to have, rather more of a requirement that needs to be met. However, for a player like Miller who is so tantalizing with the ball in his hands — especially in transition — possessing the ability to rebound at an elite rate greatly benefits the team in its entirety. Rather than the ball having to be swung around to find a capable ball handler, when Miller grabs a board he can start the break himself, giving his team yet another offensive advantage created through the defensive end. Rebounding is often an afterthought when evaluating big men, but for Miller, it’s arguably his most valuable trait.

- Switch-ability and Versatility

Beyond what Miller brings as a rim protector, he too possesses the ability to impact games vitally with his versatility. So rarely are there players who can both bring high-end rim protection and scheme versatility at the same time, so for a player like Miller who can do both on any given night, it makes him all the more valuable. His athleticism again shines through in this sector of his game, as Miller is able to stay light on his feet, gliding across the court to stay in front of quicker guys. His fast feet allow him to guard one through three pretty comfortably, even showcasing the ability to shut down guards in specific situations. Staying in front of guys is just one step in the equation though, as once he cuts players off, making the right decision is critical. Oftentimes — bigs in particular — can get caught reaching when they cut guys off, believing that when they are close enough to their smaller opponent, they can allow their length to take over and get them a cheap steal. However, guards are crafty with the ball and have ways to punish overambitious bigs, leading to some cheap fouls for the greedy. In Miller’s case, I would almost say the opposite is true, as I left his evaluation thinking he could probably take more chances than he did. Last year he posted just a 1.3% steal rate and only 2.9 fouls per 40 possessions, two numbers that could easily go up without Miller having to worry about being played off the floor because of fouls. In his case, Miller likes to catch guys entirely with his chest, which works with guards and smaller wings, but more physically developed players can check him off his spot, creating space for a potential shot. Miller still had the length necessary to recover from that spot and defend most shots at the college level. But in the NBA, when he’s faced with bigger, better athletes, I wonder if he will have that same luxury. Nonetheless, he has given me no reason to worry yet, as opponents were undoubtedly worse when guarded by Miller last season. Opposing players shot 1.6% under their typical average from two when guarded by him, and 1.8% worse from three. Both of those marks land firmly in the 90th percentile, once again showcasing just how valuable of a defensive weapon Miller can be.

However, where his versatility will likely shine the most at the NBA level is in pick-and-roll coverage. If he can ever get to a spot where teams can trust him to consistently guard fives, Miller will likely be forced to guard a fair amount of ball screens, forcing his hand on how he chooses to defend them. A lot of teams will let him sit in the drop, keeping everything in front of him and allowing him to clean up at the basket — something he has showcased he can do. Other teams will want him to play a bit more aggressively, hedging screens and trusting that he has the athletic tools necessary to recover to his man when the time is right — another thing he can do. Other teams will just flat out ask Miller to switch screens, believing that he has the mobility necessary to stick with any and everyone who tests him in that realm. And as I’m sure you have picked up on the trend by now, because he can also do just that.

- Scheme Versatility

Overall, Miller projects to be a very useful defensive weapon at the NBA level. He will give teams the freedom to use him in whichever way they so please, ranging from weakside rim protection to an aggressive perimeter defensive approach, maybe even at the point of attack on certain guys — who knows. What I do know is that Miller will be a coach's dream on defense, as it will likely never be a worry figuring out how to keep him on the floor at that end. To this point, Miller has, at worst, held his own in any kind of coverage that has been thrown his way and has given no reason to believe that he won't do the exact same at the NBA level.

NBA Future

Projecting an NBA future for prospects is a nearly impossible task, and in Miller’s case it’s no different. I wouldn’t consider him to be a situation-dependent player, as I believe that as long as he lands in a spot with a creative coaching staff, he can make an impact from day one. Along with that, I don’t think Miller has any swing skills that his NBA future is predicated on. Some may point to his outside shot as a flaw that has to get cleaned up, but even if he never shoots the ball remotely efficiently, Miller still brings enough to the table to lead me to believe that he can be an impact player.

With that said, if Miller were to develop into an average or above-average outside shooter, along with continuing to improve his frame and processing, I think there is a real world where he ends up being a near All-Star-level talent. There just flat out aren’t many human beings on this planet who can do some of the things that Miller can do, and even fewer who can blend it all together. He may need some time to figure out the kinks in his game and adjust to the NBA pace, but I have little doubt in my mind that Baba Miller will be an impact player for years to come.

I thought it would be fun to revisit Koa Peat now that the season is over. Before the season, this is how I described him before the college season started:

“Koa Peat is a living dinosaur. The 6’8”, 235-pound forward from Perry, Arizona, is heading to the University of Arizona and just had a really nice U19 tournament. He was the USA’s third-leading scorer and led them in rebounds. His ability to play bully ball cannot be underestimated… He didn’t attempt a three, and he didn’t need to. This old-school forward, with a lot of power in his game, mostly had his way down low. This was especially true with teams unprepared for his strength…

The overall talent is very much there with Koa. Especially on offense, his ability to dominate in the post and mid-range and grow as a screen-setter and distributor is very tantalizing. He seems to thrive on effort plays. His up-and-under footwork is impressive, as is his ability to create separation with his shoulders. Very few players his size can maintain efficiency with his current shooting diet. He also does this, in my opinion, without being a black hole who always needs the ball. He’s really good at cutting and rolling and has a pick-and-pop jumper in the mid-range.

Defensively, his frame looks like he will put on even more muscle. He shows flashes of great hustle, especially with rebounding. He’s a better passing-lane interceptor than he is a rim protector…”

Koa is a throwback forward. I said in that same article:

“If this were 2000, Koa would easily be in the discussion for a top-three pick in this draft. The problem is that the game has rapidly and dramatically evolved away from that skill set. It’s rare for any big-man starters in the league not to defend the rim or hit the three.”

I compared him favorably to lottery picks Collin Murray-Boyles and Derik Queen as players who overcame those weaknesses to get drafted. However, I also pointed out that they had some advantages he did not.

I also said:

“I don’t see him dropping out of the first round unless there are some major unexpected failings at the college level.”

At the time, I listed his high-end outcomes as Alperen Sengun or Domantas Sabonis, with a more realistic comparison being DeJuan Blair, someone who thrived in an earlier era but whose game might struggle to translate cleanly into the modern NBA.

I also noted that if he grew a bit physically, we could begin thinking of him in the mold of Carlos Boozer or even Taj Gibson.

I ended that article with this statement:

“In conclusion, I would take this throwback big man with a late lottery pick, but I would be even happier in the mid-to-late first. There’s definitely a world where he makes it as a team’s third big and has big moments with his hustle, and if he ever somehow learns to shoot, then the sky’s the limit.”

So the question is: what has changed?

The first thing we have now is an actual college season, with statistical production to evaluate.

Per 40 minutes, Peat averaged 20.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.0 blocks on 55.7% true shooting. He also shot a respectable 35% from three, although that came on less than one attempt per 40 minutes, and he only shot 62.3% from the free-throw line.

It’s pretty clear that on a worse team, Peat would have put up much gaudier numbers. He started the season with an explosive performance, cracking 30 points and looking like he was going to be Arizona’s best player. For a brief moment, it seemed like every concern about his game might be overblown.

However, he ultimately didn’t even finish as Arizona’s best freshman. That had far more to do with Brayden Burries being a revelation than Peat being disappointing.

In many ways, Peat’s season became an interesting study in adaptation. For most of his basketball life, he had been the primary option, the guy offenses revolved around. At Arizona, he found himself sharing touches with other talented players and learning how to contribute without dominating possessions. There were definitely stretches where he looked uncomfortable in that role. His scoring came and went, and there were games where he struggled to impose himself offensively.

Yet, to his credit, he learned how to fit in.

That is an underrated skill for NBA prospects. A lot of players can put up numbers when everything is built around them. Far fewer can scale their games down and still provide value. Peat continued to rebound, screen, cut, pass, and do the little things that help winning teams. He may not have become a star at Arizona, but he showed that he could coexist with other talented players.

That matters.

One thing that also became clear throughout the season was that Peat is a better athlete than I initially gave him credit for. When I originally compared him to players like Sabonis, Boozer, or Blair, I was focusing primarily on the skill package and physical style of play. What became increasingly evident over the course of the year was that Peat has more explosiveness than those comparisons suggest.

That brings us to the NBA Combine.

Peat measured 6’9” in shoes with a 6’11.25” wingspan and weighed in at 245 pounds. Those are solid measurements for a modern NBA forward. More importantly, he tested well athletically, posting a 34.5-inch standing vertical and a 37.5-inch max vertical.

Those numbers don’t make him an elite athlete by NBA standards, but they do reinforce what showed up on film. He is not just a bruiser. He has real burst, real pop, and enough mobility to survive defensively in a variety of lineups.

That athletic profile opens pathways to NBA success that didn’t seem quite as obvious a year ago.

The shooting, however, remains the swing skill.

While Peat did show some promise from three during the season, the volume was incredibly low. It’s hard to draw meaningful conclusions from such a small sample. The free-throw percentage remains concerning, and historically that tends to be a better predictor of future shooting development than three-point percentage alone.

Then came the combine shooting drills.

The results weren’t especially encouraging. In fact, it appeared that Peat was actively working to change parts of his shooting mechanics. While I appreciate that he is trying to improve, the reality is that rebuilding a jumper is often a multi-year process. Right now, the shot still looks like a work in progress. Or even a work about to begin…

That doesn’t mean he’ll never become a shooter. Plenty of NBA players have dramatically improved their jump shots over time. But it does mean teams drafting him are likely betting on development rather than current production.

So now let’s talk about where he is likely to be drafted.

At one point, there were people who thought Peat might work his way into the lottery. While that outcome is not impossible, it feels increasingly unlikely. The most probable outcome seems to be somewhere in the 20s.

Part of that is simply a reflection of the modern NBA. Teams are always looking for size, versatility, and shooting. Peat unquestionably has the size. He has some versatility. The shooting remains the unanswered question.

What’s interesting is that the league’s vision for him appears to have shifted somewhat.

Earlier in his development, many evaluators viewed him as a small-ball big. Increasingly, I think teams are seeing him more as a defensive-minded forward who can contribute offensively rather than an offensive hub who survives defensively.

That distinction matters.

The names I hear most often now are Aaron Gordon, Jerami Grant, and PJ Washington. While all three players are better shooters than Peat currently is, none entered the league as elite floor spacers. They developed over time while providing value through athleticism, defense, physicality, and connective play.

I’m not saying Peat becomes any of those players. Aaron Gordon in particular is an incredibly difficult outcome to project because of how unique he is defensively. But I understand why scouts are moving in that direction with their comparisons.

Peat’s strength, effort level, rebounding, and improving athletic profile make that archetype easier to envision than it was a year ago.

As for landing spots, there are several teams that make a lot of sense.

Oklahoma City at 17 would be fascinating. The Thunder have consistently targeted high-character players who understand team basketball. Peat’s willingness to embrace a role would fit nicely within their system.

San Antonio at 21 is another intriguing destination. Playing alongside Victor Wembanyama would allow Peat to focus on doing the dirty work while benefiting from the spacing and defensive infrastructure that Wembanyama creates.

The Lakers at 25 could also be a strong fit. They need young, physical forwards who can contribute rotational minutes and grow into larger roles over time.

Finally, Dallas at 30 is a fit I keep coming back to. The Mavericks have consistently looked for tough, versatile frontcourt players who can defend multiple positions and contribute without needing plays called for them. Peat’s combination of physicality, rebounding, and connective passing could fit nicely into that environment.

Overall, I think Koa Peat remains one of the more interesting players in this draft class.

The concerns I had entering the season haven’t disappeared. The shooting remains questionable. He still isn’t a natural rim protector. And there are legitimate questions about exactly what position he plays at the highest level.

At the same time, some of the positives have become stronger. He showed he can fit into a talented team environment. He demonstrated more athleticism than expected. He measured well. He competed hard. And he continued to flash the passing, toughness, and offensive feel that made him such an intriguing prospect in the first place.

Ultimately, the shooting is still the key. If the jumper never develops, I think he can still carve out a long NBA career as a rotation forward who rebounds, defends, and makes winning plays.

But if the shot ever becomes real—if he can consistently space the floor while maintaining everything else he already does well—then the All-Star upside is still sitting there.

That outcome remains unlikely, but it is not impossible.

And that possibility is exactly why Koa Peat remains such a fascinating prospect.

As a Mavs fan, I have seen a lot of division over the idea of Brayden Burries and whether he is worth drafting in the top 10. I figured he would be a good player for me to return to writing with.

When you have a 6’4” shooting guard who leads a Final Four team, the Arizona Wildcats, in scoring as a freshman, one who can score from all three levels, uses his strong 205-pound frame to play really good defense, shoots 39.1% from three on five attempts per game, is a good positional rebounder, and does all of this while not even being considered the best freshman on the team; you have something. You have something extraordinarily special.

The question with Brayden Burries is: what exactly is that something?

In most drafts, Burries is probably a top-five pick, but this year things are different. The depth of this lottery class is impressive, even if NIL has damaged the lower half of the first round. But Brayden Burries is exactly the kind of player teams will want. I would argue they will desperately want him. He has a draft range that starts around the fifth overall pick and stretches down from there.

Strengths

Let’s start with offense.

Burries is a perfect two guard—not a combo guard, but the old-school off guard. He can handle the ball some, and he can even create some great looks for teammates. He uses his strength and complete lack of fear of contact to make a huge difference offensively.

Burries embraces contact to the point that it is almost jarring to watch. In an era where so many players try to trick referees into thinking they were hit harder than they were, Burries does not sell contact. He lets it hit him and then basically tells the contact it is soft. That mentality shows up in his finishing, his hustle, and, as we will discuss later, his defense. He is able to score baskets that other guards who shy away from contact simply never get.

He is clearly a three-level scorer and one who has good counters in the mid-range, ferocious dunks at the rim, and the ability to score from three both off the dribble and off the catch. He is comfortable attacking closeouts, getting downhill, and forcing defenses to react to him. There is a confidence to his offensive game that stands out every time he steps on the floor.

Let’s also look at defense.

Burries is not exceptionally long—just a +2.5” wingspan—but he is extremely solid. Listed at 205 pounds, he honestly looks even stronger than that. He has thick legs that he uses to refuse to give ground. It is hard to bump him off his spots.

He has a 38.5” max vertical and a 32” standing vertical, both of which show up on film. He uses that explosiveness to contest shots and surprise larger scorers who think they have an easy layup. He excels at blocking shots that people think are open. He is also very good laterally for his build, with a low center of gravity that makes him difficult to post up. He has great hands and can dig down for steals effectively. He can probably guard some threes as well, though that will be matchup dependent.

Weaknesses

On offense, Burries is not exactly weak; he is just not a point guard.

That is not a bad thing. He knows who he is. He is not forcing passes that are not there, and he is not trying to run an offense into the ground by spamming pick-and-rolls if they are not working. He is willing to work both on and off the ball to get his offense.

The lack of pure point guard vision should not be a major reason for teams to pass on him. While the ceiling of his offensive creation is slightly capped by this, I think his overall offensive ceiling is actually getting overlooked. He has no true weaknesses for his position, and sometimes prospects get penalized for not being something they were never supposed to be.

On defense, the lack of a crazy wingspan and the fact that he is only about 6’4” in shoes means he is probably not going to be guarding many forwards. Though, as I mentioned earlier, he is excellent at holding position with his body. He is not quite the point-of-attack defender you want him to be at this point, but all the tools are there for him to become that in the future.

Notes on Rebounding

Burries is an aggressive rebounder, especially on the defensive end. His build makes him an exceptional box-out player.

While he is not an amazing offensive rebounder from a statistical standpoint, I believe that is more about Arizona’s team makeup and system than his actual ability. He had one incredible putback dunk this year that really showcased what he can do around the basket. Given more opportunities, I think those numbers would increase. Rebounding effort tends to translate, and Burries consistently shows that effort.

Overall Outlook

On offense, Burries is going to be a secondary ball handler. He excels as a play finisher who can also create for himself. His offensive fit is going to be easy on almost any roster.

Offensively, he really reminds me of Eric Gordon, another thick, fire-hydrant guard who could score from all three levels. There are shades of higher-end ability in there, though—shades of Bradley Beal. It is not out of the realm of possibility that he becomes an early-career Beal type of player, a 22+ points-per-game scorer while still making a decent defensive impact.

That leads us to defense.

Defensively, people are comparing him to Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. I think that is probably a bit much. He is probably a step below that tier. He is a bit smaller than Wes Matthews Jr., but I think that is a better defensive comparison. Or, if he continues to fill out and develop on this path, maybe he could occupy a Josh Hart-type role defensively, a tenacious rebounder with above average defense. He does all this while bringing more scoring punch than Hart.

Best Fits

Burries has kind of made it clear that he wants to go to Dallas. That being said, he might have his work cut out for him if he wants to make that happen.

If the Clippers decide to stay with Garland, it would not be a bad idea to pair him with Burries. If Darius Acuff is off the board, I could see the Kings taking him instead. If the Hawks decide they do not need a point guard right now, they could roll the dice on him as well.

Burries is an excellent fit in Dallas even though they need a point guard. If they want to roll with Kyrie as the veteran teaching the young guys for a year, then Burries fits perfectly. He would slot in immediately as their point-of-attack defender while bringing much-needed scoring and secondary creation.

What makes him particularly attractive to Dallas is that he would not need the ball in his hands every possession to be effective. He could contribute from day one while continuing to develop the finer points of his game. If he somehow slips past them, I cannot see the slide lasting much longer. The Warriors, Heat, and Hornets all seem like logical landing spots for him.

Conclusion

In conclusion, if a team wants a true two guard—one who has significant upside on both sides of the floor—it would behoove them to get Brayden Burries on their roster.

His combination of strength, toughness, scoring versatility, defensive upside, and willingness to embrace contact gives him one of the safer floors in this draft while still offering legitimate star potential. From 5–14 is his range to me, with him currently sitting as my ninth overall prospect.

Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz has rapidly emerged as one of the more productive and polished offensive guards in college basketball. His game is built around feel, shot-making, pacing, and advanced decision-making rather than overwhelming physical tools. In many ways, Stirtz represents the modern offensive connector guard capable of elevating team efficiency through smart play and perimeter scoring.

As his offensive responsibilities have expanded, Stirtz has consistently produced efficient scoring while also functioning as a reliable initiator and playmaker. His poise and offensive IQ stand out immediately on film, particularly in structured half-court settings.

The long-term NBA question will center around physical limitations and defensive scalability, but offensively, the foundation is highly intriguing.

Player Bio

• Height - 6’4”

• Weight - 180 lbs

• Wingspan - 6’5”

• Draft Age - 22

• Position - Guard

• Nationality - American

The Profile

• Basketball IQ: Advanced offensive processor who consistently is able to manipulate defenders and control pace.

• Shooting Touch: Excellent touch from deep and the mid-range. Comfortable with off ball movement to get space for pull up action as well out of offensive sets.

• Pace & Control: Never appears rushed or out of sorts offensively. Plays with poise, timing and outstanding patience.

• Playmaker: Strong decision maker in pick and roll action. Delivers accurate reads consistently.

• Athleticism: Below average explosiveness by NBA standards but is able to impact winning through sheer force of will, craft, and skill.

Key Takeaways: Stirtz’s offensive polish and decision-making give him a clear pathway toward NBA consideration. Teams value guards capable of organizing offense, spacing the floor, and limiting mistakes.

Offense & Defense

• Pick and Roll: Able to create mismatches out of real time processing of reads in pick and roll situations.

• Defensive Concerns: Physical limitations create some concerns against strong, more explosive guards. Hi effort is solid, but tools are average.

• Under Control: Avoids costly turnovers. Plays under control and rarely forces unnecessary offensive risk.

• King of the Mid Range: Highly effective utilizing floaters, pull ups, and touch shots inside the arc and painted areas.

• Perimeter Shooter: One of the defining strengths of his game. Comfortable both in catch and shoot and off dribble situations. Has NBA range and confidence to pull from extended deep range.

Key Takeaways: Stirtz projects as an offense-first guard whose value comes from efficient scoring, playmaking feel, and floor-spacing. His offensive versatility should translate well within structured NBA offenses.

Areas for Growth

Strength: Needs to add additional strength to handle physical defenders and improve defensive versatility.

Rim Pressure: Lacks elite burst to consistently collapse defense at the rim.

Shot Volume: Can occasionally become too passive offensively despite strong efficiency.

Defense: May require schematic protection against larger guards and wings at the NBA level.

Key Takeaways: Stirtz’s offensive intelligence and shot making create a strong foundation, but physical development and defensive improvement will ultimately determine his overall ceiling.

NBA Projection & Player Comparison (Style)

Bennett Stirtz projects as a skilled offensive combo guard capable of operating as a secondary initiator and floor-spacing playmaker.

His ideal NBA fit comes in systems prioritizing ball movement, spacing, and intelligent decision-making. He can contribute as a low-mistake offensive organizer capable of stabilizing second units. Stirtz brings to mind similar play styles of Tyus Jones and Payton Pritchard. His offensive control, shooting touch and decision making are most similar attributes.

Final Evaluation

Bennett Stirtz is one of the more polished offensive guards in the 2026 NBA Draft class. His combination of shooting, playmaking, and offensive IQ provides a pathway toward long-term NBA rotation value.

While questions surrounding athleticism and defensive upside remain, skilled guards who consistently make the right play and efficiently score retain significant value in today’s NBA. If Stirtz continues improving physically while maintaining offensive efficiency, he projects as a reliable rotation guard capable of positively impacting winning basketball.

AJ Dybantsa enters college basketball carrying the distinction of being one of the most anticipated wing prospects of the past decade. The BYU freshman combines elite physical tools, advanced shot creation, defensive versatility, and scoring instincts into a profile that NBA evaluators view as a potential franchise cornerstone.

Standing nearly 6 foot 9 with perimeter skills typically reserved for guards, Dybantsa represents the type of modern wing every NBA organization covets. His ability to impact the game as a scorer, creator, defender, and transition weapon gives him one of the highest ceilings in basketball regardless of age or level.

What makes Dybantsa particularly intriguing is the balance between upside and functionality. While many elite prospects are evaluated primarily on future potential, Dybantsa already possesses a well rounded skill set capable of contributing immediately.

Let’s examine the profile of one of basketball’s premier young talents.

Player Bio

• Height - 6’9”

• Weight - 210 lbs

• Wingspan - 7’0”

• Draft Age - 18

• Position - Wing

• Nationality - America

The Profile

• Physical Tools: Prototype NBA wing measurements. Possesses outstanding length, fluidity, and coordination with room for additional physical development.

• Athleticism: Elite athlete. Explosive leaper, powerful in transition, and highly fluid changing directions for a player his size.

• Feel for the Game: Continues to improve as a decision-maker. Processes offensive actions well and demonstrates encouraging passing instincts.

• Highly Competitive: Plays with confidence and embraces challenging assignments. Consistently seeks impact on both ends of the floor.

• Role at the Next Level: Can function as a primary scorer, secondary creator, transition weapon, or defensive stopper. Extremely rare versatility.

Key Takeaways: Dybantsa enters the draft cycle with one of the most coveted archetypes in modern basketball: the oversized two-way wing capable of creating offense while defending multiple positions. What separates him from many elite athletic prospects is that his game is not solely dependent on physical tools. While the combination of size, length, fluidity, and explosiveness immediately jumps off the screen, his developing feel for the game and offensive versatility provide an equally compelling foundation. He has shown the ability to impact possessions as a primary scorer, secondary creator, transition playmaker, and defensive disruptor, giving coaches numerous pathways to deploy him effectively.

From a long-term perspective, there are very few prospects who combine his physical profile with legitimate perimeter creation ability. NBA organizations consistently search for wings who can defend, handle, shoot, and create advantages without sacrificing positional size. Dybantsa possesses all of those foundational ingredients, which is why evaluators view him as a potential franchise cornerstone rather than simply a high-level starter.

Offense & Defense

• Shot Creator: Advanced creator for a player his size. Comfortable attacking from isolation, pick-and-rolls, and face-up situations.

• Thee Level Scorer: Capable of scoring at the rim, from mid-range, and beyond the arc. Offensive versatility creates matchup problems across multiple positions.

• Dominant In the Open Court: One of the most dangerous transition players in the class. Covers ground quickly and finishes above the rim with authority.

• Defensive Versatility: Possesses legitimate potential to guard multiple positions. Length and athleticism allow him to disrupt actions across the floor.

• On Ball Defense: Shows strong flashes containing perimeter players while utilizing length to contest shots without fouling.

• Growing Playmaking Skills: Passing continues to improve. Comfortable making reads out of drives and defensive rotations.

Key Takeaways: Dybantsa’s offensive upside is among the highest in the entire draft class because of the diversity of his scoring package. He can attack defenses from multiple areas of the floor, create his own offense late in possessions, finish through contact, and generate efficient looks in transition. Unlike many young wings who rely heavily on athleticism, Dybantsa already shows signs of understanding pace, shot manipulation, and how to leverage defensive attention to create opportunities for teammates. As his decision-making continues to mature, the offensive game has the potential to expand significantly.

Defensively, the upside may be nearly as intriguing as the offense. His physical tools provide tremendous schematic flexibility, allowing him to guard multiple positions while offering weak-side rim protection and transition defense. Few wing prospects possess the combination of lateral mobility, length, and recovery ability necessary to consistently impact possessions across different defensive assignments. There are stretches where Dybantsa completely alters opposing offensive actions simply through his presence and ability to cover ground.

Perhaps most importantly, his offensive and defensive strengths complement one another. Many elite scoring prospects enter the NBA requiring defensive protection from teammates. Dybantsa projects as a player who can potentially contribute positive value on both ends of the floor, significantly increasing his lineup versatility. If his perimeter shooting and playmaking continue progressing, there is a realistic pathway toward becoming one of the league's more complete two-way wings.

Areas for Growth

• Consistency Beyond The Arc: The mechanics are promising, but sustained high-level shooting would make him nearly impossible to scheme against.

• Patience in Half Court: At times relies on superior athleticism rather than allowing actions to develop. Experience should improve this area naturally.

• Developing Strength: Additional muscle will help him absorb contact and defend bigger forwards at the next level.

• Decision Making: Can occasionally force difficult shots when simpler options are available. Continued refinement as a creator will improve efficiency.

Key Takeaways: The encouraging aspect of Dybantsa’s developmental profile is that his areas for improvement largely revolve around refinement rather than major structural concerns. The foundational tools that cannot be taught, his size, athleticism, coordination, shot creation potential, and defensive versatility, are already in place. Most of the remaining developmental work centers on improving efficiency, consistency, and decision-making as his responsibilities continue to expand.

Perimeter shooting remains the most important swing skill in his projection. While defenders already have to respect his ability to score off the dribble and attack the basket, becoming a consistently efficient three-point shooter would dramatically increase the pressure he places on opposing defenses. The difference between a good NBA wing and a perennial All-Star often comes down to whether defenders can comfortably go under screens or help aggressively off the ball. If Dybantsa forces defenses to honor his jumper at all times, his offensive ceiling rises substantially.

Similarly, continued growth as a playmaker will determine how much offensive responsibility he can shoulder at the highest level. He already flashes impressive passing instincts, but improving his ability to consistently read complex defensive coverages and manipulate help defenders could unlock primary initiator upside. These are relatively common developmental hurdles for young wings, and given Dybantsa’s work ethic, feel, and overall trajectory, there is considerable confidence that meaningful improvement is attainable.

Ultimately, the gap between Dybantsa becoming a very good NBA starter and becoming a franchise-level star is narrower than it appears. His developmental checkpoints are clear, achievable, and centered around skills that often improve with experience. If those areas progress as expected, his combination of physical gifts and basketball ability could place him among the most impactful players in the league.

NBA Projection & Player Comparison (Style)

AJ Dybantsa projects as a franchise-caliber two-way wing with legitimate All-NBA upside. The league consistently prioritizes large wings who can create offense, defend multiple positions, and generate efficient scoring opportunities. Dybantsa checks each of those boxes.

His ability to impact winning without needing a specific system or roster construction significantly increases his value. Whether surrounded by other stars or carrying primary responsibilities himself, his skill set should translate seamlessly to virtually any NBA environment. In this manner, his impact on winning is remarkably similar to Scottie Pippen.

Dybantsa shares similarities with a young Paul George and Jayson Tatum. Like those players, he combines elite physical tools with advanced shot creation and two-way versatility. While every prospect follows a unique developmental path, those archetypes provide a useful framework for understanding his potential impact.

Final Evaluation

AJ Dybantsa is one of the most complete prospects to enter college basketball in recent years. His combination of size, athleticism, skill, and defensive upside gives him a realistic pathway toward becoming one of the premier players in the NBA.

There are still areas to refine, particularly as a shooter and decision-maker, but the foundational tools are exceptional. Players with his blend of physical traits and offensive skill are among the rarest commodities in basketball.

In a league driven by elite wings capable of creating offense and defending across multiple positions, Dybantsa projects as the type of prospect organizations spend years searching for. His floor is high, his ceiling is enormous, and his long-term outlook places him firmly among the most valuable prospects in the 2026 draft cycle.