The market has had an incredible run since the tariff scare of April 2025. From the low on April 7, 2025, to the high around June 2, 2026, the QQQs (NASDAQ 100) climbed 85%, driven almost entirely by the “AI trade.” Nowhere is that clearer than in the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which rocketed up 342% over the same stretch. The S&P 500, by comparison, gained a comparatively modest 57%.

Then came June. Since early in the month, SOXX has dropped nearly 30%, the QQQs are down 11%, and the broader S&P has slipped a narrow 3.6%. It’s been brutal; just ask the South Koreans. Their index, the KOSPI, is down 40% over the past 40 days after leveraged AI-trade bets triggered margin calls and blew up millions of accounts.

Our Green Edge AI-Driven Clean Energy portfolio sits right in the middle of this trade, so we felt the drawdown too. The difference is we don’t use leverage anywhere, which means we live to fight another day and being there for the rebound matters. Case in point: the QQQs jumped 3.3% on Thursday, July 30th, with several of our holdings posting mid-teens gains and IREN leading the way at 30.5%.

The chart below breaks down returns for the indexes and a handful of our portfolio picks across all three timeframes. Given the size of these swings, leverage isn’t just risky, it’s unnecessary — I’d steer clear of it entirely.

Our picks were up 10x to 20x over the past 14 months, before losing half to two-thirds of their value in the 4-6 weeks. That whiplash is exactly why the portfolio finished 2025 up 88% and was running as high as 60% YTD by early June but is now barely in the green. Sometimes when you play with fire, you get burned.

So, bubble, popped? Maybe. A handful of real headwinds made this a natural moment for a reset:

1. Rising rates — the U.S. 10-year is yielding 4.75%, up from under 4% in February.

2. Sticky inflation — up from 2.4% to 3.5% in just a few months.

3. Expensive gas, courtesy of the conflict in Iran.

4. Hyperscaler spending — nearly all their prior positive cash flow is now going into AI infrastructure with murky ROI.

The goldilocks outcome: cheaper gas plus a productivity boost that takes pressure off both inflation and rates, would fix a lot, fast. But that’s asking for a lot in a few months. Right now, the market is starving for good news, and if it gets any, these stocks come roaring back. History isn’t fully on our side either: September and October of a president’s second year are typically rough for stocks. Then again, it’s hard to picture Trump sitting on his hands with midterms looming.

Bottom line: I still think we’re in the early innings of the AI trade. Green Edge is holding steady and even put about half of our 10% cash cushion to work at the lows. So take this as your cue to get outside, touch some grass, enjoy the rest of summer and let the market do its thing. We’ll be okay.

Market Performance

What is most noticeable about the performance chart this month (besides our AI-Driven portfolios being very red)? There is a broadening of participation in the market as the S&P500 equal weight actually gained 0.9% on the month while all other indexes are down. The financial, healthcare, energy, and staples sectors all gained ground in July while the technology sector was obliterated down almost 8%.

Also, with bitcoin gaining 7.3% on the month, perhaps this supports the story that people were pulling money out of cryptocurrency over the past year and placing their bets in AI stocks. Now it’s working in reverse.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a corrective rally in August. As pointed out earlier, September and October could be difficult months ahead for stocks unless the administration pulls a rabbit out of their hat. The challenge is not selling at lows but also being flexible enough to get out of poor performing companies if they aren’t hitting expected milestones and moving the ball ahead.

Power Forecast Update

In the Green Edge Predictions Edition, published on January 5, 2026, the key metric and prediction was that the AI data center power capacity forecast would continue to grow. A slow down or even plateau of this metric would negatively affect most of the stocks we hold in our AI-Driven Clean Energy portfolios.

The next point on the chart has just been released. Bloomberg NEF published this outlook twice last year (April and December) and has released its first outlook of 2026 during July and the news is consistent with our prediction.

Bloomberg NEF’s 2035 U.S. data-center power forecast has now nearly tripled since April 2025, from 78 GW to 106 GW to 194 GW, driven by a fast-growing AI project pipeline rather than a sudden jump in operating load. Nearly a quarter of the roughly 150 projects BNEF added to its tracker in the prior year exceeded 500 MW, and even in BNEF’s base case, record grid-connection rates still leave a 19 GW shortfall by 2035.

This gap is exactly where our Green Edge thesis sits. Demand is outrunning the grid’s ability to deliver it, which means three things matter more each quarter: clean generation that can be built and connected fast, capacity (transmission, interconnection queues, storage) that turns paper megawatts into delivered power, and efficiency, since every point of PUE or chip-level efficiency gained effectively adds “free” capacity without a new interconnection.

Companies we have identified are positioned across generation, grid infrastructure, and efficiency technology. They aren’t just participating in the AI buildout; they’re the bottleneck the buildout depends on. The data center moratorium in the State of New York may gain ground in other states leading to powered data centers being valued at higher levels. Expect this shortfall to be the defining constraint/opportunity through the rest of the decade.

This is why we continue to hold our stocks and wait for the next move up. The environment for AI is building, and our thesis is buying and holding stocks that will benefit from the buildout, especially as it improves the state of clean energy and efficient use of resources.

In The End

There has been divergence between the S&P500 index and the NASDAQ index. The NASDAQ, driven by the AI technology companies, has been either much better or much worse than the 500 largest companies, even though there is a lot of overlap.

In 2026, the NASDAQ has experienced two 12%+ corrections already this year — a normal allotment of annual corrections. February and March were corrective, with the index losing 12.8%. Then April and May were bountiful, up 34.8%. June and July were corrective again, down 12.3%.

Meanwhile, the S&P lost 9.6% in the first correction and only 4% in the latest two months. The April and May rally was a muted gain (compared to NASDAQ) of 20.5%.

What is in store for us in the next three months leading up to the election? Trump loves Green Candles and high stock prices. I’m finishing this up on a Monday morning and rumor has it that Iran wants a deal - for the 25th time this year. So the indexes are GREEN.

It is frustrating as an investor that our stock picks move based on tweets from the President instead of fundamentals. I guess it is the game we play today. In the end, I’m holding, watching how our companies are making progress and hitting (or not) milestones, and keeping tabs on the success of AI towards a more productive business environment. This is an “unpresidented” time for clean energy supply and efficient use of the power we do generate. I don’t think that goes out of style.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

With the U.S. futbol (soccer for us Americans) team making the sweet 16 in the World Cup competition on US’s 250th Anniversary, it is a great time to not be a democrat or republican, not a trader or investor, not any of the us vs them issues, BUT…just be proud to be an American.

Before the tournament started, I put $5 on two long shots to win it all — USA at 50:1 and Norway at 25:1. Why Norway? My wife and I have visited Norway a couple times in our travels and have plans to go back. It is one of our favorite places to visit. So, for my birthday, I got a Haaland jersey. Erling Haaland is the striker for the Norway team and has scored five goals thus far in the competition and just one behind in the Golden Boot race.

6 Goals

• Lionel Messi (Argentina)

• Kylian Mbappé (France)

5 Goals

• Harry Kane (England)

• Erling Haaland (Norway)

Was it wrong of me to wear my new Norwegian jersey to the USA/Bosnia game on Wednesday night at the Pizzaman? I just like thinking that I’m a Viking (and not the Minnesota type).

Are you watching the World Cup? Do you have any favorites? It really does look like France is equipped to win it all this time around, but any team can beat any other team on any one specific day.

Good thing we have the World Cup to keep us entertained — the market has certainly settled into its summer doldrums.

Market Performance

The core indexes of S&P 500 and NASDAQ both fell in June, down -1.1% and -2.8%, respectively. On the other hand, both the Equal-Weight S&P and the small cap Russell 2000 gained during the past 30 days, up 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.

Although our AI-Driven Clean Energy portfolios lost ground during June, all are beating the indexes handily on a year-to-date basis — up between 23% and 63%.

As money continues to flow into the AI sector, one source of funds is crypto investors who tend to chase returns. Bitcoin is now down by a third this year, with pundits calling for $30K–$40K Bitcoin. At some point this will likely turn, and money will flow back into crypto using gains from the AI trade. We’re seeing a mini-version of this play out right now — as of Thursday, July 2nd, AI darlings are getting hit while Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are catching a bid (NASDAQ is down 2% while Bitcoin is up 3% on the day).

I believe AI will recover and make new highs in the coming months while Bitcoin bottoms this fall. A personal take on crypto: if you are interested in allocating a portion of your assets to Bitcoin, I recommend dollar-cost averaging for the remainder of 2026 in anticipation of a probable bull run beginning in 2027.

Portfolio Highlights

First, a look at our sector ETF performance, which gives a clear picture of both the year-to-date momentum and the pain endured during June.

The Solar ETF (TAN) had been one of the standout performers of 2026 until June hit hard, with the sector dropping 20% on the month — though it remains up 20.4% on the year. The Nuclear ETF (NLR) continues to have a difficult year, down 6.6% YTD, though it’s worth keeping in mind this follows a remarkable 56% return in 2025. On the bright side, Data Center & Digital Infrastructure (DTCR) and Future AI & Tech (ARTY) continue to dominate on a year-to-date basis, up 43.9% and 58.1%, respectively.

Announcement: Fervo Energy (FVRO) Added to the Portfolio

In June we added Fervo Energy to the portfolio. Below is a writeup on why geothermal, and why now.

Geothermal: The Grid’s Quiet Overachiever Gets Its Moment

For decades, geothermal energy has been the overlooked member of the clean energy family — steady, reliable, and largely ignored. That may be changing faster than most investors realize.

The US grid currently draws only about 3.7 GW from geothermal sources, a rounding error against total capacity. But a new generation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) — borrowing horizontal drilling and fracking techniques straight from the oil and gas playbook — is unlocking heat resources far beyond the handful of Western states where traditional geothermal operates today. The Department of Energy sees a credible path to 90 GW or more by mid-century.

The near-term investment case rests on a collision of two trends: an AI-driven data center boom that desperately needs 24/7 firm clean power, and a technology cost curve that is bending downward in real time. Geothermal runs at a ~92% capacity factor, around the clock, regardless of weather — exactly what hyperscalers need. Google has noticed, signing a framework agreement for up to 3 GW of geothermal power through 2033. Others will follow.

Politically, this is one of the few clean energy technologies with genuine bipartisan support — a meaningful advantage in the current funding environment.

The risks are real: wells are capital-intensive before a single watt is produced, dry holes happen, and permitting timelines are unpredictable. This is not a sector for the impatient.

Fervo Energy (FRVO) anchors the investable universe as the EGS pure-play that completed the largest clean energy IPO ever in May 2026 — a signal that institutional capital is finally taking geothermal seriously. Bought a starter position in June and plan to add more in July if we get a pullback in price.

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Final Notes

Just as any team can beat any other team on any given day, markets can humble even the most confident investor in any given month. June was that kind of month for clean energy — a gut-check, not a game-changer. The long-term thesis around AI-driven energy demand, grid infrastructure, and emerging plays like geothermal remains as strong as ever. We'll take the month-to-month volatility. The long game is what matters. Happy 250th, America — and let's go Norway.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

At the beginning of the year, my Annual Predictions newsletter called for the S&P 500 to gain another 20%+ and reach 8,250. The core thesis: President Trump pays close attention to stock market performance and views record prices as critical heading into the midterms (set for November 3, 2026). With that in mind, I pegged the high of the year for late October to early November. Quote from the Predictions newsletter.

The path to get there, however, was always expected to be rocky. I published a prediction chart alongside that forecast, and so far in 2026, the market has been following the script reasonably well. The S&P closed 2025 at 6,847 and appeared to be on an unstoppable march to hit 7,000, which it did, hitting 7,013 on January 28th. My prediction called for an early-year correction down to 6,150. In reality, the index bottomed at 6,310 on March 31st, a shallower drawdown than forecast, but directionally on target.

From that trough, the model called for a sharp rally of roughly 25%, targeting 7,750. We closed May at 7,580, sitting within striking distance of that June target. The original prediction then calls for a 7–8% summer correction. Sitting here on June 1st, my current thinking has evolved: rather than stalling at 7,750, the market could extend its run through the 250th Anniversary of the United States (July 4th!) and push as high as 8,000–8,200 before correcting back into the 7,000–7,300 range.

The final chapter would then be the year’s high in October, targeted at 8,250 — a gain of +20.5% on the year. The model shows a pullback by year-end, settling near 7,900 as the post-midterm hangover sets in. That said, the selloff could be considerably steeper if Democrats win both the House and Senate, as current polling suggests is possible.

Will it play out this way? Nobody knows. The President’s attentiveness to equity prices is well-established, the AI trade continues to provide real fundamental support, and midterm elections remain the key macro driver of the year. At the same time, the war with Iran and the fact that Year 2 of the presidential cycle is historically the weakest leg of the four-year sequence, so the market may be fighting both the Iran overhang and the historical headwind of a second-year presidential cycle.

Stick with Green Edge as we report back at the end of each month with the full scorecard. On the positioning front: cash had grown to roughly 15% of the portfolio through profit-taking, but since Memorial Day, I’ve redeployed 5% into additional equity, as the next four to eight weeks have the feel of a surprisingly strong stretch.

Market Performance

May flowers were definitely in bloom this month as the indexes gained 5.1% and 8.4% for the S&P and NASDAQ, respectively. The S&P equal-weight index trailed, gaining only about half as much as the cap-weighted index at +2.5%. The small cap Russell just slightly higher at +3.7%.

The tech heavy NASDAQ has now out appreciated the S&P by 50% on a YTD basis, +16.1% versus +10.7%.

The cryptocurrency market continues to struggle as traders are loving the meme coin type moves happening in the stock market. Perhaps funds will find their way back into crypto when the stock market takes a break.

May Market Recap — What Drove the Move to New All-Time Highs

May turned out to be one of the more consequential months of the year, with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh all-time high of 7,580 on May 29th, capping a month of better-than-feared news on multiple fronts.

The biggest macro tailwind was the gradual de-escalation of the U.S.-Iran war. Oil prices plunged nearly 19% in May, the largest monthly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, as markets grew increasingly optimistic that a lasting ceasefire deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Late in the month, reports emerged that the U.S. and Iran had extended their ceasefire for 60 days and were close to a broader agreement.

On the monetary policy front, the Fed remained on hold, but core inflation had been trending in the right direction, coming in at 2.6% over the twelve months through March, down from 2.8% the year prior, while business investment surged over 10% in Q1.

The AI and semiconductor trade was the other engine driving the index higher. Micron Technology surged 19% in a single session, topping a $1 trillion market cap, as UBS issued a price target implying more than 100% upside, citing the company’s long-term AI memory agreements. Dell Technologies surged nearly 33% on its best single day on record after reporting a first-quarter beat and raising full-year guidance, with Qualcomm and Micron adding further to the semiconductor momentum into month-end.

The month was not without its bumps — oil price volatility tied to ceasefire uncertainty and the Fuzzy Panda short report on T1 Energy being two notable examples — but the market’s ability to shake off those headlines and push to new highs speaks to the underlying bid. The wall of worry is still standing. The market just keeps climbing it.

Portfolio Highlights

May was a month of portfolio housekeeping. I invested time digging into each Green Edge sector and the stocks representing — or in some cases no longer representing — the thesis behind each one. Several changes were made, which I’ll walk through below. One broader observation: the portfolio structure has grown complex, and I’m planning to simplify it heading into next year. With seven stocks across seven sectors plus one ETF per sector, I’m actively tracking 56 tickers — plus a bench of additional names on watch as potential call-ups. That’s a lot of plates to keep spinning.

Clean Energy Supply — Solar

Two changes were made in this sector, both driven by the same conviction: residential solar companies have continued to struggle through the first third of 2026, and the headwinds don’t appear to be letting up anytime soon.

In the Core portfolio, Nextpower (NXT) was brought in to replace Array Technologies (ARRY). Nextpower manufactures solar tracking systems for utility-scale power plants — equipment that allows panels to follow the sun’s movement throughout the day and optimize overall plant output. ARRY was sold at a loss of 7.8% on 5/11/26.

In the Alternates portfolio, Sunrun (RUN) — a residential solar systems provider — was sold and replaced by SolarEdge (SEDG), which offers greater exposure to the accelerating solar buildout across EU markets. RUN was sold on 5/11/26 at an 18% loss.

As of month-end, NXT has gained 19.8% and SEDG 79.4% through their first 14 trading days, versus 0.4% and 10.8% for ARRY and RUN over the same period. Early results are encouraging, and the expectation is that both new positions will continue to outperform for the remainder of the year.

Large Cap Portfolio — AI-Assisted Review

I turned to Claude (Anthropic’s AI assistant) to help assess the Large Cap portfolio. I’ve found conversations with Claude enlightening, with the AI’s ability to sort through large amounts of data quickly, it has improved my understanding of sectors, individual stocks, and their fit to the Green Edge mission. There were several holdings where the fit had always felt like a stretch and having that analytical support brought some useful clarity.

In the Materials sector, BHP came under scrutiny. Under the current U.S. administration, BHP’s strategic direction has been drifting back toward traditional oil and gas, pulling away from its earlier push into lower-emissions products, not a great fit for a green-focused portfolio.

In the Intelligent Electrification and Autonomous sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) had been included on the strength of its Waymo autonomous vehicle division. The problem: Waymo represents less than half of one percent of Alphabet’s total revenue, meaning the portfolio was effectively carrying an enormous advertising business under the guise of an autonomy play. A cleaner replacement was found in Qualcomm (QCOM), whose autonomy-related revenue is forecast to reach a $6 billion run rate and currently represents approximately 13% of total revenue and growing. The comparison table below illustrates the case for the switch.

The BHP issue was resolved by promoting Albemarle (ALB) from the Alternates portfolio. With a market cap now at $20.8 billion, ALB has crossed the threshold into Large Cap territory. That opened a slot in Alternates, which was filled by United States Antimony Corp (UAMY), a domestic miner of antimony and other critical minerals used in solar panels, batteries, and semiconductor manufacturing. At a $1.3 billion market cap, UAMY fits squarely within the $1–$20 billion target range for Alternates and is sized accordingly as a more speculative position, reflecting both the opportunity and the risk profile that comes with a smaller, earlier-stage producer.

Q1-2026 Earnings Reports

Most companies in the Core portfolio have reported Q1 earnings and in some cases have significantly moved the stock price. As I was putting together the Estimates and Actuals for revenue and earnings per share for each of the 14 stocks in the Core portfolio, I realized that many of these have stories that are not being told by a miss or beat on their revenue and/or earnings numbers. The “post-earnings move” is the percentage price change the day after earnings. But since I put together the chart, I may as well share it. For the Core portfolio, here are the results from Q1 reports.

Big Movers for the Month

Here were the stocks that had the largest change in price during May.

T1 Energy (TE) +120.0%. The month wasn't without drama — a short seller report mid-month briefly knocked 13% off the stock — but the bulls overwhelmed the bears and TE finished up 120%. Strong earnings performance led to a gain of 33% in one day as news of institutional investors flood into TE seeking stocks that will benefit from AI power needs.

In addition to TE, all solar sector stocks performed well with Nextpower +31.3%, Shoals +56.8%, First Solar +52%, and new addition to the Alternates portfolio, SolarEdge +78.1%.

The AI infrastructure and high-performance compute group — companies providing the power and data center capacity the AI buildout requires — also had a standout month. Nebius lead the way gaining +67.2% then IREN, Cipher, and Applied Digital were up +39%, 33%, and 38%, respectively.

On the other side of the coin, the Critical Materials sector struggled with Lithium Americas down -9.1%, MP Materials -2.0%, U.S. Antimony losing -25.2% and Energy Fuels down -15.8%.

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The Final Word

I remain bullish on the stock market and the companies in our Green Edge thesis. However, I must say that I feel like we are playing a game of chicken. At any moment, the rug could be pulled out from us, and a sizable correction would teach bulls a sharp lesson, especially if one is using leverage (2x ETFs, options, margin).

My self-talk is telling me to load up for the next 4-6 weeks for a mini-blowoff top, decent sized correction, and then a final run into the midterms. But I have one finger on the sell button for positions of leverage (yes, I do have some 2x ETFs, options, and use of margin in my personal account). By the end of July, I intend to eliminate all leverage and start building a cash position.

In the Green Edge portfolios, no leverage but have reduced cash position so all the money is allocated and working. If we get a nice move in the short-term, I will again raise cash to ride out any corrections.

Let me know how you are playing the stock game. Are you putting cash to work or are you raising cash? Any leverage in your portfolio? Are you getting ready, or when will you get ready, for riding out any tough times?

Good luck. In the meantime, I'm going to experiment with Substack Notes for real-time portfolio updates — keep an eye on your notifications.

As always, not financial advice.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

The year started out strong with the indexes gaining roughly 2% through the first three to four weeks of January. Value plateaued during February and even stayed relatively even through the early days of the Iran conflict during Operation Epic Fury. However, as Iran closed down the Strait of Hormuz and the price of oil escalated above $100 per barrel, stock prices fell by 10% to 12% by March 30th.

But something was bubbling underneath. The market wanted higher prices and was looking for any clue as an excuse to rally. It seemed that President Trump would provide bad news — or new threats — on the weekends when the market was closed so as not to spook investors during trading hours.

The stock market jumped 3–4% on March 31, 2026, because investors saw new signs that the Iran war might soon end, triggering a broad relief rally. This was the start of a “V”-shaped recovery that sent the NASDAQ up 21.7% from its March 30th low to the May 1st high. The S&P 500 gained 12.7% over the same period.

The Green Edge AI-Driven Clean Energy portfolio is benefiting from these trends. Our thesis is continuing to be proven out — but it remains a high-risk, high-reward positioning. After dropping 17% during the February/March downturn, the core portfolio gained 36% in the month of April alone.

Last week was the largest week of earnings reports of the quarter and the numbers are looking favorable.

Corporate earnings are projected to gain by double digits year-over-year for Q1 of 2026. Last week saw the largest volume of earnings reports, and the results did not disappoint — 83% of companies beat estimates. The investment into AI infrastructure is driving nearly all economic growth right now. It is a train that won’t stop.

What does this mean for stock prices looking forward? It feels like we need another correction already to cool off the current rally, but earnings are strong and momentum is stronger. Trump will do everything in his power to keep the stock market moving up through the mid-terms. I will keep the winners winning — but I have one finger on the sell button just in case.

Market Commentary

April erased the damage from February and March — and then some. Every portfolio in the Green Edge family posted strong gains. The core AI-Driven Clean Energy portfolio led at 36.6% for the month, bringing the 2026 YTD return to 30.8%. That is a remarkable recovery from the -4.2% hole we were in at the end of March.

The broader market also recovered sharply. The NASDAQ gained 15.3% in April, and the S&P 500 added 10.4%. But the Green Edge core portfolio more than doubled the NASDAQ’s monthly gain — a reflection of both the high-beta nature of our holdings and the strength of the underlying AI infrastructure thesis.

The equal-weight S&P500 index trailed the market cap weighted gaining “only” 5.9%. However, the small cap Russell 2000 return fit squarely between the S&P and the NASDAQ with 12.1% gain on the month. The Russell 2000 actually leads the index returns on a YTD basis up 12.6% since January 1st.

A few things worth noting. First, the Alternates and Large Cap portfolios both outperformed the core on a YTD basis (36.0% and 40.7% respectively). Names like LUME, VRT, and GNRC are doing real work alongside the more speculative core holds. Second, Bitcoin remains down 11.1% YTD despite its 14% April bounce — if crypto is your risk-appetite barometer, the signal has yet to turn full-bull.

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The Stories Behind the Numbers

April was a month of dramatic divergence within the portfolio. A handful of names carried the team while others continued to weigh on results. Here are the standouts — good and bad — along with the most significant portfolio decision of the month.

AAOI — The Star of the Show (+94.3% in April, +371.5% YTD)

Applied Optoelectronics has quietly become one of the best-performing stocks in the entire market this year — and it is not a fluke. AAOI makes the optical transceivers that live inside AI data center racks, moving data at the speed of light between GPUs. As hyperscalers race to deploy 800G and 1.6T networking infrastructure, AAOI is one of the few vertically integrated suppliers that can actually deliver at scale.

Note that this transition in the AI data center stack from 400G to 800G to 1.6T allow for a much more efficient operation and ability to produce more ‘tokens’ (the output of AI data centers) with less energy and at a lower cost.

The April surge was driven by a blowout earnings report confirming what the thesis has always argued: when the data center build-out accelerates, AAOI accelerates faster. Revenue is growing, margins are expanding, and the 800G production ramp is on track. This one stays in the portfolio, although I did sell 10% to realize some of the profits as this stock was up to 18% position of the total portfolio.

SMTC — Welcome to the Portfolio

April also marked the debut of Semtech (SMTC) as a core holding, replacing POET Technologies in the Data Movement & Efficiency sector. The swap was triggered by a striking chain of events.

On the surface, Marvell Technology’s termination of its POET partnership looked like it was triggered by an NDA breach during a CFO interview. But the timing told a different story. Just one day before sending the termination notice, Marvell announced the acquisition of Polariton Technologies, a Swiss firm developing plasmonic modulators that are smaller and faster than traditional silicon photonics. By acquiring Polariton, Marvell effectively internalized the capability POET had been providing. The NDA breach became a legally convenient exit from a contract Marvell no longer needed.

The real lesson from POET: in the semiconductor industry, you don’t terminate a Tier-1 partnership over a slip of the tongue if the product is indispensable. The technology may have been brilliant — but the company lost its primary leverage the moment Marvell bought around them. Vertical integration by a giant doesn’t care how good your IP is.

There is also a governance issue worth acknowledging. POET received the termination notice on Thursday, April 23. The stock pumped 29% on Friday on false speculation while management stayed silent. The disclosure came Monday before the bell — four trading sessions after a material event. That kind of lapse destroys trust far beyond the loss of a single contract. When one loses trust in the management team, it feels right to cut and move on.

Semtech is the right replacement. The company posted record FY2026 net sales of $1.05 billion, up 15% year-over-year, with data center revenue growing 58% YoY to $223 million. Q1 FY2027 guidance calls for data center revenue to grow more than 50% in the coming year. SMTC sits at the electronic layer that enables the same AI bandwidth explosion AAOI captures at the module level. Two names, one thesis, no redundancy.

Review of the portfolio decisions (two moves from mid-February)

In the Energy Storage and Grid Flexibility sector, we replaced Fluence Energy (FLNC) from the core portfolio and slotted in EnerSys (ENS) from our Alternates portfolio. FLNC has continued to disappoint, down 11.5% in April and off 38.4% for the year. Since that exchange, ENS is up 19% while FLNC has dropped -32.7%. I believe the energy storage thesis remains strong, but execution risk at Fluence has been higher than expected.

In the Intelligent Electrification and Autonomy sector, we switched out Mobileye (MBLY) and put Aurora Innovation (AUR) in its place. AUR’s performance has been splendid with the stock moving up 39.6% since moving into the core portfolio while MBLY has lost another 6% and is down 16.8% YTD.

Both decisions have been very good so far. The third move was changing out POET for SMTC, which just happened on April 28th. We sold 100% of the POET position at $8.90 for a 38% gain. However, the price of the stock on April 27th was $17.37 before the news broke (down 47% that day). Time will tell how successful, or not, this exchange will be.

What other moves might be made in the Green Edge portfolios in the coming months? The Clean Energy Supply - Solar sector has performed poorly in 2026 with all four picks in the Core and Alternates are down 28%, 16%, 7%, and 31%. I will assess our picks and see if there are better performing companies in the sector or if we just need to ride it out with the current picks.

EOS Energy (EOSE) in the Energy Storage sector had a poor Q4 report and is down 40% YTD. But EOSE is one of my original picks and have been riding this stock in its journey from $1.5 to $5 to $0.61 to $19 and back down to $4 per share. Is this just another test, or is something broken? I’ll wait until Q1 earnings results and re-assess.

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How Green Edge Is Built

For newer subscribers, Green Edge AI-Driven Clean Energy is a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio built around seven sectors representing the essential infrastructure of the AI-powered energy economy.

The Core portfolio is made up of two companies from each sector. We’ve targeted an expanded mid-cap sized stocks — from $1 billion to $20 billion market cap (mid-cap is normally $2B-$10B). Since there are many companies to choose from in each sector, we also created an Alternates portfolio which serves as a back-up in case a core pick falters. For those who want to play safer bets, Green Edge built a Large Cap portfolio and also picked one ETF from each sector to be the benchmark in our ETF portfolio.

The image below shows the sectors and the stocks and ETF included in each portfolio. Note that POET was kicked out of the data movement sector and replaced in the core portfolio by Semtech SMTC (not shown yet in the image).

• Clean Power Supply – Solar (TE, ARRY): Where electrons originate. Utility-scale solar is the fastest-growing source of new U.S. electricity generation.

• Clean Power Supply – Nuclear (SMR, BWXT): Reliable, always-on baseload power — increasingly demanded by AI data centers via power purchase agreements.

• Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility (EOSE, ENS): As renewable penetration increases, storage and grid orchestration become essential, not optional.

• Critical Materials (MP, LAC): The physical inputs behind electrification. Secure, domestic material supply chains are now a national security issue.

• Intelligent Electrification & Autonomy (RIVN, AUR): Where software meets hardware. Electrification alone isn’t enough — systems must become smarter and more autonomous.

• Data Movement & Efficiency (AAOI, SMTC): The plumbing of AI. The bottleneck in AI infrastructure isn’t compute — it’s how fast data can move between chips. Both AAOI and SMTC sit directly in that critical path.

• AI / HPC Compute & Load Growth (IREN, CIFR): The physical infrastructure required to support AI and high-performance computing, where power demand is exploding.

The April results validate the construction logic. When the AI infrastructure narrative runs hot — as it did this month — Data Movement and Compute lead. When the broader energy transition dominates, Solar, Nuclear, and Critical Materials carry more weight. Holding all seven provides exposure to whichever narrative is in the driver’s seat.

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One Foot on the Accelerator / One on the Brake

April felt good. After two months of geopolitical noise, oil shocks, and a market in chaos, the relief rally was both necessary and overdue. A 36% gain month in the core portfolio is the kind of result that reminds you why you build a concentrated, high-conviction book in the first place.

But a few things keep me from getting fully comfortable. The rally has been fast — perhaps too fast. The NASDAQ gained 21.7% in five weeks. That kind of velocity almost always leads to at least a pause, if not a pullback. Sentiment has flipped from fear to greed in a matter of a couple weeks, and greed has a short memory.

The Iran situation is not resolved. A ceasefire rumor moved markets 3–4% in a single session — which tells you how much geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in valuations, and how quickly it can return if talks break down. I am watching the Strait of Hormuz more carefully than any earnings report right now.

On the positive side: earnings are real. 83% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates, and AI infrastructure spending shows no sign of decelerating. The investment is structural, not cyclical. That is the foundation everything else rests on.

The POET situation was a reminder that in this sector, thesis validation and management execution are not the same thing. A technically correct idea in the hands of the wrong management team is still a losing trade. SMTC earns its spot with real revenue, real earnings growth, and supply chain positioning that is only becoming more relevant as the indium phosphide shortage deepens.

My plan heading into May: put my head in the sand and pray. :-) Just kidding. I want to allow the winners to win while watching some of the stocks trailing to see if they deserve a downgrade in the portfolio. Many of the companies in our portfolio will report Q1 earnings in the first half of May, so that will be a focus. Last quarter results are important, but I’ll be watching more for: are they hitting milestones, do forecasts line up with expectations, and where are customers (i.e. hyperscalers) spending their capex funds. This portfolio is built for the long arc of the AI energy transition — and that arc is very much intact.

Until next time. Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

Welcome Back. The World Didn’t Wait.

I left for the Mediterranean with one goal: step away from the news cycle, ignore the charts, and let ancient history do the talking for a few weeks. The Acropolis. Roman ruins. Greek seafood. Italian wine. All of it delivered.

For the most part, the plan worked.

Then we docked in Turkey.

On February 28th — the last trading day of the month — the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. I’ll admit my first instinct wasn’t to check the portfolio. It was to check a map. Turkey shares a border with Iran, and while we were well clear of any danger, it was a reminder that geopolitics has a way of finding you, even when you’re trying to eat your weight in baklava and pretend markets don’t exist.

From that point on, staying completely off the financial news was a lost cause. I did manage to keep it to occasional glances — enough to know things were moving, not enough to do anything useful about it. The wine helped.

By the time I was home, the picture was clear: the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to tanker traffic, Brent crude was surging toward $120 a barrel, the Supreme Court had struck down the administration’s IEEPA-based tariffs, and a market that had been quietly struggling was beginning a more serious decline. March was a difficult month across the board — and Green Edge was not immune.

An oil shock triggered by a single geographic chokepoint doesn’t weaken the case for energy transition investing. It strengthens it. When 20% of the world’s oil supply can be disrupted in a matter of days, the argument for distributed, domestically generated clean power doesn’t need much elaboration. The thesis is being stress-tested — and it’s holding.

With that context in mind, here’s how Green Edge performed in March.

Market Performance

March was a difficult month across virtually every asset class, and the Green Edge AI-Driven Clean Energy Portfolio was not spared. The portfolio declined 8.6% in March, bringing the 2026 YTD return to -4.2%.

For context, the broader market also struggled. The S&P 500 fell 5.1% in March (-4.6% YTD), the NASDAQ dropped 4.8% (-7.1% YTD), and the Mag 7 — often treated as a proxy for AI-driven growth — declined 5.7% in March and is now down 12.2% on the year. The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index are holding up better, each in positive territory YTD, suggesting large-cap growth names bore the brunt of the selling.

The Green Edge core portfolio underperformed the S&P 500 in March, which is worth acknowledging directly. High-beta clean energy and AI-adjacent names tend to sell off harder in risk-off environments, and March — with an oil shock, a Hormuz closure, and broad macro uncertainty — was about as risk-off as it gets. That context doesn’t change the numbers, but it’s relevant to how we interpret them.

The supporting portfolios told a more nuanced story. The Large Cap portfolio is up 19.0% YTD despite a -4.9% March, and the Alternates portfolio is up 9.4% YTD. The ETF portfolio, down 7.2% in March, sits at +8.3% for the year. All three are outperforming the core portfolio on a YTD basis — a reminder of why the full portfolio architecture exists.

Bitcoin was the lone bright spot in the benchmark table, gaining 1.8% in March — though at -22.0% YTD, it remains the worst-performing benchmark tracked here by a wide margin.

Portfolio Highlights

The month in brief

March tested the portfolio across nearly every segment. Of the twelve core holdings, only AAOI finished the month essentially flat, and BWXT posted a negligible -0.7% — everything else declined, several sharply. The macro backdrop — crude surging toward $120, broad risk-off sentiment, and growth stocks under sustained pressure — created a difficult environment for the kinds of mid-cap, high-conviction names this portfolio favors.

AAOI: the standout of the year so far

If there’s one position that has validated the Data Movement & Efficiency thesis in concrete terms, it’s Applied Optoelectronics. AAOI gained an extraordinary 93.1% in February alone, and while March was essentially flat (+0.4%), the YTD return stands at +142.7% — by far the strongest performer in the portfolio. The February surge was earnings-driven, and the Q4 call was worth paying attention to. As one analyst summarized after the call, the numbers management put on the table were unusually direct.

CEO Thompson Lin, when asked about the company’s $1B+ revenue guide for 2026, said: “The demand is much, much bigger than $1 billion. That’s the number we feel minimum 99% confident we can deliver.” The CFO followed with this on the $378M monthly run rate target for mid-2027: “This revenue level is limited by our production capacity and supply chain — not market demand, which we believe is much larger.”

That’s the key line. The ceiling on AAOI right now is not customers, not competition, not pricing — it’s purely how fast they can build capacity. And they’re moving fast: from 90,000 units per month of 800G capacity at end of 2025 to a target of 500,000 units per month by end of 2026 — a 5.5x increase in twelve months. They’ve committed $300 million to triple laser manufacturing capacity in Texas to get there. The phrase “it’s not a demand issue” appeared three separate times on the call.

AAOI remains a core pick. The thesis is no longer speculative — it’s executing. The question now is purely whether management can deliver on an aggressive production ramp. Q2 and Q3 will be telling.

EOSE: a record quarter that still disappointed

Eos Energy was the portfolio’s other major earnings story — and it played out in February rather than March. On February 26th, EOSE shares fell more than 36% in a single session after the company reported Q4 results and provided 2026 guidance well below consensus.

The quarter itself was not without merit. Revenue of $58 million was a record — up roughly 8x year over year — and higher than the first three quarters of 2025 combined. The order backlog reached $701.5 million, up 9% sequentially, and the company ended the year with $624.6 million in cash. CEO Joe Mastrangelo acknowledged the revenue miss directly but pointed to improving operational execution as the year progressed.

The problem was the forward guidance. Management projected 2026 revenue of $300–$400 million against a consensus expectation of $479 million — a midpoint miss of roughly 25%. In a market with little patience for growth stories that move goalposts, the stock was punished severely and immediately.

EOSE carried that damage into March, closing the month at $4.96 — down 61.1% in February and an additional 13.0% in March, for a YTD loss of 56.7%. That’s the kind of drawdown that tests conviction. The backlog is real, the cash position is solid, and the long-term grid storage thesis remains intact. But EOSE needs to demonstrate in 2026 that it can convert backlog into revenue on a predictable schedule. Until it does, it stays on watch alongside TE.

TE: a sharp and painful March

T1 Energy was the portfolio’s hardest hit in March, declining 28.7% and bringing the YTD return to -34.3%. That’s a number that deserves a direct look rather than a soft landing — and the March 31st earnings report explains much of the move.

TE missed badly on both the top and bottom lines. The company reported a loss of $0.70 per share against a consensus estimate of $0.02 — a miss of more than 3,500%. Revenue came in at $358.6 million, roughly 10.7% below the $401.4 million analysts expected. To be fair, the revenue figure represents extraordinary growth from the same period last year — the company was essentially pre-revenue twelve months ago — but at this stage of the growth curve, execution against expectations matters, and Q4 fell short.

The solar sector broadly had a rough month regardless — tariff uncertainty, rising financing costs, and the oil shock narrative all worked against it. But the earnings miss turned a difficult month into a painful one. Smaller-cap solar names carry more execution risk and less institutional support in a downturn, and both of those dynamics were on full display in March.

The underlying thesis hasn’t changed — domestic solar installation demand remains structurally supported, and an energy independence argument actually strengthens in an oil-shock environment. But a miss of this magnitude demands a candid reassessment. TE stays in the portfolio for now, but it is firmly on watch. Q1 results will be the next meaningful data point.

Portfolio moves: ENS and AUR join the core

In mid-February, two changes were made to the core portfolio. In the Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility segment, Fluence Energy (FLNC) was replaced by EnerSys (ENS). In Intelligent Electrification & Autonomy, Mobileye (MBLY) was replaced by Aurora Innovation (AUR). Both FLNC and MBLY move to the watchlist.

The timing wasn’t perfect — all four names are down since the February 17th swap date, as the broader market selloff spared nothing. But the moves held up on a relative basis, which is the right way to evaluate them. FLNC dropped 23.3% from swap date to month-end, while ENS declined only 2.7% over the same period. Similarly, MBLY fell 26.1% while AUR lost just 7.6%. In a down market, the new positions significantly outperformed the ones they replaced — which is exactly the kind of risk-reduction the changes were designed to deliver.

ENS brings a more diversified revenue base and stronger near-term fundamentals to the storage segment — a profitable, established player in industrial and specialty batteries with growing exposure to grid-scale applications. AUR reflects a deliberate pivot toward autonomous vehicle infrastructure, where the commercial deployment timeline is becoming more concrete. Both moves were about improving the risk-reward profile of their respective segments, not abandoning the underlying themes.

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Portfolio Name, Construction & Sector Focus

A note on the name

When I launched Green Edge, the focus was straightforward — clean energy investing. The name reflected that mission clearly.

Late last year, as AI’s impact on energy demand became impossible to ignore, I shifted the name to Green Edge AI-Energy Infrastructure Portfolio. It was an attempt to signal that this portfolio sits at the intersection of two powerful forces. But “infrastructure” skewed the framing toward assets and away from mission — and I heard from readers that it felt less like the clean energy story they signed up for.

So I’m returning “Clean” to the name. Green Edge AI-Driven Clean Energy Portfolio better captures what this has always been about: the unprecedented opportunity for clean energy to grow — not just replace dirty generation — in an era of AI-driven electricity demand. The thesis hasn’t changed. The name just needed to catch up with it.

As a reminder, below is a Green Edge infographic on the market sectors and the individual stocks we are tracking in our portfolios. Six sectors (7 counting the 2 subsectors of clean power supply) with two selections in each that make up our core Green Edge AI-Driven Clean Energy portfolio - 14 holdings in all. Then we have two additional names in each sector as our “alternates”, two large cap, one ETF to represent the sector, and finally one small cap for those out there on the risk curve.

Sector Deep Dive

Data Movement & Efficiency: Light Does the Heavy Lifting

There’s a question I get occasionally from readers — something along the lines of: what do optical components and photonics have to do with a clean energy portfolio?

It’s a fair question. The answer is actually straightforward.

Every AI computation begins with data movement. Before a model generates a response, before a GPU processes a training batch, before any “intelligence” happens — data has to travel. Across chips. Between servers. Through switches. In and out of memory. In a large-scale data center running thousands of simultaneous AI workloads, that movement happens billions of times per second. And each hop consumes energy.

Traditionally, that movement has relied on copper-based electrical interconnects. Copper is cheap, but it has real physical limits: it generates heat, it loses signal over distance, and its energy consumption scales poorly as data volumes grow. At the speeds and densities that modern AI infrastructure demands, copper is increasingly the bottleneck — both in performance and in power draw.

Optical interconnects replace electrical signals with light. Photons move faster, generate less heat, and consume a fraction of the energy of their copper equivalents. The efficiency gains aren’t marginal — they’re structural. As data centers scale to meet AI demand, migrating from copper to optical interconnects is one of the highest-leverage efficiency improvements available. Not in the future. Now.

This is why Data Movement & Efficiency sits in the Green Edge portfolio. Every watt saved on data transport is a watt that doesn’t need to be generated, transmitted, or cooled away. Efficiency is clean energy — just applied from the demand side rather than the supply side.

AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) makes the optical transceivers, lasers, and subassemblies that enable high-speed data transfer inside and between data centers. Its end customers are the hyperscalers — the same companies spending $100 billion-plus annually on AI infrastructure. AAOI is already profitable in this cycle, already shipping at scale, and has been one of the portfolio’s standout performers since inception.

POET Technologies is a different kind of bet — earlier stage, higher risk, but addressing the same core problem from a more fundamental angle. POET’s optical interposer platform integrates photonic and electronic components onto a single substrate, eliminating conversion steps that currently waste both energy and performance. If POET’s manufacturing approach scales commercially, it doesn’t just improve data center efficiency — it changes the economics of optical integration entirely.

One company is selling light-based solutions into the AI buildout today. The other is working to make those solutions cheaper, denser, and more energy-efficient tomorrow. Together, they represent Green Edge’s conviction that the energy transition isn’t just about cleaner generation — it’s about smarter consumption. And right now, in the data centers powering the AI economy, photonics is where smarter consumption begins.

Closing

March was the kind of month that tests conviction. When geopolitics intrudes, earnings disappoint, and the macro turns hostile simultaneously, you find out quickly whether a thesis is built for durability or just momentum.

The Green Edge thesis is built for durability. AI-driven electricity demand is a structural shift already showing up in utility load forecasts, hyperscaler capital budgets, and grid planning horizons. An oil shock doesn’t weaken that argument — if anything, it accelerates the conversation about where reliable, domestically generated power comes from over the next decade.

EOSE and TE reminded us that execution risk is real and earnings matter. AAOI reminded us that when the thesis is right and management delivers, the returns can be extraordinary. Both lessons belong in the same portfolio.

Q1 earnings will be the next meaningful test. TE and EOSE need to show forward progress. AAOI’s 800G production ramp enters its critical phase in Q2. I’ll be watching all three closely and will report back in April.

As always, nothing here is investment advice. These are the positions I selected for our shared portfolio and my honest assessment of how they’re performing. Do your own research and size accordingly.

See you in April.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

Hello — or Yia sas (in Greek) or Ciao (in Italian).

As you read this, I’m packing up for a Mediterranean cruise from Athens to Barcelona. I’ve made a modest attempt to learn a little Greek and Italian ahead of the trip, though I’m not especially confident in my progress so far. Since I’ll be out of the country toward the end of the month, this early edition will take the place of the usual late-February update.

I’ll admit something up front. I asked a couple of AI tools to help write the opening section of this newsletter — trying to cleverly tie my trip to the energy transition and the growing power needs driven by AI data centers. The results were… not great. Very polished. Very dramatic. Full of Aegean winds, ancient trade routes, empires, and seasonal weather systems.

It didn’t sound like me at all.

So I scrapped it and wrote this instead.

What I am genuinely looking forward to is stepping away from the daily news cycle for a few weeks — the nonstop AI headlines, the breathless market commentary, and the constant sense that everything is either “breaking” or “in turmoil.” For a short while, my biggest decisions will be which sites to visit that day, whether to order white or red, and what looks best on the menu at “The Restaurant.”

That said, I didn’t want to let the moment pass without checking in on the Green Edge thesis, reviewing how the portfolio has behaved so far this year, and making a couple of adjustments where the data suggests it’s warranted.

To that end, I put together a set of tables for each of our key sectors comparing returns across core holdings, alternates, large-cap comparables, and the sector ETF benchmark. One quick takeaway: had I simply owned the alternates instead of the core picks over the past couple of weeks, results would look meaningfully better. That’s a good reminder of how quickly leadership can shift in this kind of market — and why flexibility matters. (Remember how I joked about selling all the holdings on 1/31/26 and call it a good year as Green Edge was up +14% in January)

A Question Worth Addressing

One thing I’ve been thinking about more lately — and I suspect some of you have as well — is whether my pivot toward AI–Energy Infrastructure risks pulling Green Edge away from its clean energy roots.

Is focusing on AI-driven power demand a distraction from the energy transition?
Or is it simply the mechanism accelerating it?

I’ve tried to stay true to the beliefs that brought me here in the first place. Many of the companies in this portfolio were selected not because they benefit from AI headlines, but because they make the grid cleaner, more resilient, or materially more efficient — including the data centers now being built at scale.

If you have thoughts on this, I’d genuinely like to hear them. This has never been a one-way conversation.

In the meantime, let’s turn to what’s happening in the market, how we’re positioned today, and what changes — if any — make sense after the first six weeks of 2026.

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General Market Commentary

Through the first six weeks of 2026 (as of February 13), the S&P 500 Index is essentially flat, posting a 0.0% return. Beneath the surface, however, leadership has shifted meaningfully. The Magnificent Seven are down more than 7%, and given that these stocks still represent roughly 34% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, their weakness has had an outsized impact on the headline index.

That selling pressure hasn’t simply disappeared — it has created cash that needs to be redeployed. Some of it has flowed into bonds, but a meaningful portion has rotated into other equities. One clear illustration: the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is up 2.4% over the same period. In other words, the other 493 stocks in the index are up closer to +7% on average. This has been a classic example of index-level stagnation masking broad participation beneath the surface.

What’s driving the hesitation around the mega-cap leaders? At its core, investor concern is centered on capital intensity and payoff uncertainty. The largest hyperscalers are committing unprecedented levels of capital expenditure to AI infrastructure, yet the economics remain difficult to model. Today’s leading AI platforms — from conversational models to search and productivity tools — are not yet meaningfully profitable, and the timeline for durable margins remains unclear.

Despite that uncertainty, spending continues at full speed. Collectively, these companies are on pace to invest roughly $1 trillion this year alone in data centers, compute, networking, and power infrastructure. That scale is both the source of investor anxiety — and, importantly, the opportunity.

A portion of the capital rotating out of mega-cap tech is finding its way into the picks-and-shovels of this buildout: power generation, grid infrastructure, storage, efficiency, and enabling technologies. That is where the Green Edge portfolio largely sits — with a deliberate emphasis on clean power and improved operational efficiency rather than headline AI exposure.

For that reason, I continue to like our investment thesis for 2026 and remain comfortable with the overall structure of the portfolio. That said, markets are dynamic, and relative performance matters. Based on how the first six weeks of the year have unfolded, it makes sense to make a few targeted adjustments — elevating select companies from the alternates list into the core Green Edge AI–Energy Infrastructure portfolio.

The framework remains intact. We’re simply refining the expression.

Sector Performance Snapshot

Across each of the seven Green Edge sectors, companies are organized into four buckets:

• Core holdings (2 stocks)

• Alternates (2 stocks)

• Large-cap comparables (2 stocks)

• Sector benchmark ETF (1)

The tables below summarize performance across all seven sectors through the first six weeks of 2026. There’s a lot of data here, so take a moment to absorb it. As always, early-year results can shift quickly — but even over a short window, some clear patterns are beginning to emerge.

A Few Notable Takeaways

• The ETFs have performed well overall.
  As a group, the sector ETFs are up +14.7% in just six weeks. That’s a good reminder that diversified exposure often delivers smoother results than a concentrated basket of individual names — especially during periods of rotation.

• Early leadership has come from alternates and large caps.
  The top performers so far are not core holdings, but alternates and large-cap infrastructure names tied directly to grid stress, resiliency, and AI buildout:

  • Generac (GNRC) +64.6% — Alternate, Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility

  • Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) +60.7% — Alternate, Intelligent Electrification

  • Lumentum (LITE) +52.7% — Large Cap, Data Movement & Efficiency

  • Vertiv (VRT) +44.8% — Large Cap, AI / HPC Compute

• Not every thesis expresses itself at the same speed.
  A few of the core positions in Intelligent Electrification and AI / HPC Compute have lagged their peers early this year. That doesn’t invalidate the long-term themes — but it does suggest the market is currently rewarding different expressions of those themes than the ones we initially selected.

For that reason, and based on the data above, I’m making one targeted change in each of those two categories. The goal is not to chase performance, but to stay aligned with where capital is flowing today while remaining anchored to the same long-term framework.

Two Targeted Portfolio Rotations

Six weeks is not a long time, but it is long enough to start distinguishing between a sound thesis and how that thesis is being rewarded by the market. These changes are not a rethink of the portfolio framework. They are refinements within it — same sectors, same long-term beliefs, better positioning for this stage of the cycle.

Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility: FLNC → ENS

Fluence Energy was selected as a pure-play, software-driven utility-scale storage provider — a company well positioned at the intersection of batteries, grid optimization, and long-duration deployment. That long-term thesis still makes sense.

However, early 2026 performance suggests the market is currently favoring companies with broader exposure to grid stress, resiliency, and industrial demand, rather than those tied primarily to large, project-based deployments that can be lumpy quarter to quarter.

EnerSys offers a different — and right now, stronger — expression of the same grid flexibility theme. ENS is deeply embedded across data centers, telecom infrastructure, industrial power systems, and backup applications. As AI-driven load growth accelerates, reliability and uptime are becoming mission-critical, not optional.

EnerSys benefits from this reality in a more immediate way. Its exposure to mission-critical power systems, combined with pricing power and operational scale, has translated into relative strength early this year. The move reflects a shift toward where grid resilience demand is already showing up, not a rejection of utility-scale storage as a long-term opportunity.

Same sector. Same need. Better fit for the moment.

Intelligent Electrification & Autonomy: MBLY → AUR

Mobileye Global remains an important player in autonomous vision and ADAS systems, with meaningful technology and deep OEM relationships. The challenge is structural rather than technical. Mobileye’s majority ownership by Intel continues to act as an overhang, leaving its stock price tethered to issues largely outside of its own execution.

After six weeks of relative underperformance and no clear near-term catalyst to change that dynamic, it makes sense to look for a cleaner expression of autonomy exposure.

Aurora Innovation provides that. Aurora’s focus on autonomous trucking targets a commercial use case with clear economic incentives, improving regulatory clarity, and a more direct path to monetization than broad consumer ADAS. At a similar market capitalization and with stronger early-year performance, AUR is signaling better alignment between thesis and market recognition.

Again, this is not a change in belief — it’s a change in expression.

Both rotations follow the same discipline:
stay anchored to the theme, but let market feedback guide positioning.
We’re not chasing momentum. We’re refining exposure as the cycle evolves.

Is the AI Build-Out a Distraction from the Energy Transition — or Is It Accelerating It?

After 26 years in the energy efficiency industry, and the last five years watching the energy transition unfold from an investor’s seat, my answer has become increasingly clear:

Not because it’s elegant.
Not because it’s altruistic.
But because it is large, persistent, and unavoidable.

The Transition’s Missing Piece: Demand

For much of the 2010s, the energy transition was a supply-side success story — and a demand-side frustration.

Solar costs fell nearly 90%. Wind turbines grew larger and more efficient. Battery technology improved faster than most forecasts. From a technology standpoint, the transition was working.

What lagged was conviction on the demand side.

Utilities and grid operators move cautiously, and for good reason. New generation requires committed load. Without clear, durable demand growth, large build-outs felt premature. Policy support came and went. Capital flowed in waves. Progress continued — but it was uneven and slower than many expected.

The industry didn’t lack technology.
It lacked a customer large enough — and urgent enough — to force the system to move.

Then AI Arrived — and It Never Turns Off

Modern AI data centers consume enormous amounts of power, often 20 to 100 megawatts per facility, running continuously, 24/7. A single hyperscale campus can rival the electricity demand of a small city.

More important than the magnitude is the nature of the demand.

This load is real.
It is contracted.
And it is backed by capital already committed.

Across the industry, hyperscalers are signing long-term power purchase agreements, breaking ground on new campuses, and deploying infrastructure at a pace utilities cannot ignore. This is not speculative growth or distant aspiration — it is steel in the ground.

For the first time in decades, large industrial customers are not just requesting power. They are actively competing for clean, reliable, long-duration power, and they are willing to pay for it.

The energy transition didn’t just need better policy.
It needed a buyer.
AI became that buyer — faster, and at a larger scale, than anyone anticipated.

Why Clean Energy Wins — Not Loses — from AI

Much of the public discussion around AI focuses on its energy footprint, often framed as a problem. From an investor’s perspective, that framing misses the broader system effect.

AI workloads demand firm, reliable, long-duration power. That requirement is reshaping the generation mix in ways that clean-energy advocates struggled to achieve through persuasion alone.

Nuclear power is back on the table because it solves a real constraint. Solar paired with storage is being deployed at record speed because it remains the fastest way to add capacity. Grid infrastructure, transmission, and control software are finally receiving the capital attention they’ve needed for years.

And the benefits extend beyond data centers. Investments made to serve AI load — stronger grids, more storage, better resiliency — improve reliability for everyone, from utilities to homeowners installing EV chargers and heat pumps.

This is not an “AI versus clean energy” story.
It’s an AI-pulls-the-entire-system-forward story.

What This Means for Green Edge

This is exactly why the Green Edge portfolio looks the way it does — and why recent adjustments have stayed within the same themes rather than abandoning them.

This isn’t a pivot away from clean energy. It’s an evolution toward the parts of the transition that matter most right now: power generation, grid flexibility, critical materials, and the infrastructure that connects them.

The energy transition needed three things it struggled to secure on its own: scale, speed, and capital. AI is providing all three.

If you originally came to Green Edge for the clean-energy thesis, you’re still in the right place.
If you’re here because AI is reshaping energy markets, you are too.

At this stage of the transition, those stories are no longer separable.

A Personal Note Before I Go

Very soon, I’ll be somewhere between Athens and Barcelona, temporarily trading earnings calls and market headlines for ancient streets, long meals, and a slower pace. Stepping away for a bit is a good reminder that while markets move quickly, the energy transition does not. It unfolds over decades, not weeks — shaped by infrastructure, incentives, and human behavior more than daily price action. I’ll be back next month with fresh perspective, but in the meantime, I remain comfortable with where Green Edge is positioned: focused on efficiency, resilience, and the real-world systems being built to meet growing demand. As always, thank you for reading, thinking alongside me, and being part of the conversation.

Efficiently yours,
D.T.

With a quick start like this, I briefly considered going 100% cash, declaring victory, and telling everyone it was a great year. Unfortunately (or fortunately), that’s not how portfolios—or calendars—work. But I can appreciate this monthly performance.

What Moved Markets in January

January packed an entire quarter’s worth of macro drama into one month. Here are the key forces that shaped markets:

Monetary Policy & Central Banks

The U.S. Federal Reserve paused further interest-rate cuts late in January. At the same time, President Trump announced his nominee for the next Fed Chair: Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as more hawkish than markets had expected. The combination injected uncertainty into rate expectations and pushed volatility higher across bonds and equities.

Geopolitical Tensions Driving Volatility

Rising U.S.–Iran tensions created regional instability, while continued U.S. actions in Venezuela and diplomatic disputes involving Greenland strained relations with Europe. The result: renewed safe-haven demand, choppy equity markets, and elevated volatility across risk assets.

Precious Metals & Energy Moves

Gold and silver reached historic all-time highs in January, driven by geopolitical risk, a weaker U.S. dollar, and classic flight-to-safety behavior. That said, volatility cuts both ways—by Friday, gold and silver had fallen sharply from the highs, down roughly 10% and 25%, respectively.

Meanwhile, an Arctic cold snap sent U.S. natural gas futures sharply higher, with knock-on effects across global LNG markets.

Risk Repricing After Tariff and Political Shocks

The so-called “January 20 market decline”, triggered by tariff threats and renewed trade policy fears, led to abrupt equity selloffs—particularly among megacap technology stocks. It was a sharp reminder that political risk can reprice valuations quickly and without much warning.

AI Data Center Developments

January also delivered important signals for AI-driven infrastructure:

• NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, aimed at expanding U.S. AI data-center capacity. The plan targets up to 5 GW of compute capacity by 2030, reinforcing the scale and durability of hyperscale AI demand.

• META reported strong Q4 2025 results and unveiled a much higher capital expenditure plan for 2026, largely tied to AI infrastructure and data centers. The company now expects $115–$135 billion in capex for 2026—well above both its 2025 spending (~$72 billion) and Street expectations (~$110 billion). That’s nearly a year-over-year doubling and a clear signal that the AI build-out is accelerating, not slowing.

At the same time, the data-center boom is encountering real-world constraints. Local opposition related to resource usage, environmental impact, and electricity pricing is increasing. In many regions, there is growing pressure for binding agreements to ensure that large-scale data-center development does not raise residential power rates.

Let’s move on to what really matters: how the Green Edge portfolios—and the benchmarks—performed in January.

Market Performance

January was a strong but uneven start to the year for markets. The S&P 500 gained 1.4%, grinding higher despite mid-month volatility tied to tariffs, geopolitics, and shifting rate expectations. The headline index held up reasonably well, but that strength masked notable dispersion beneath the surface.

That dispersion shows up clearly across benchmarks. The S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index rose 3.3%, outperforming the cap-weighted index, while the Russell 2000 advanced 5.0%, marking a solid month for smaller-cap stocks after a challenging 2025. In contrast, the NASDAQ lagged with a 0.9% gain, reflecting both profit-taking and sensitivity to political and rate-driven headlines among megacap growth names.

Outside of equities, bitcoin moved sharply in the opposite direction, falling 10.2% in January. Actually, 6% of that decline happened on Saturday after the stock markets had closed for the month. This decline serves as a reminder that crypto remains highly sensitive to liquidity expectations and risk sentiment—even during months when equity markets are broadly positive.

Overall, January reinforced a familiar theme: index-level returns tell only part of the story. Leadership rotated quickly, volatility spiked around political events, and asset selection mattered far more than simply being “in the market.”

GREEN EDGE AI-Energy Infrastructure Portfolio

For 2026, I constructed the Green Edge AI-Energy Infrastructure Portfolio with a simple structure: two companies in each of seven sectors, including the two subsectors within Clean Power Supply (Solar and Nuclear), for a total of 14 core holdings. The goal is focused exposure to the infrastructure backbone powering AI, electrification, and the energy transition—without over-diversifying or chasing noise.

That approach paid off in January. The core Green Edge portfolio gained +14.9% for the month, significantly outperforming traditional benchmarks and delivering a strong start to the year. Performance was broad-based across most sectors, with particularly strong contributions from AI/HPC compute, energy storage, nuclear, and solar—while a few names reminded us that volatility is still very much part of the ride.

The table below shows the individual stock-level performance for January and highlights how sector positioning—not just index exposure—drove results.

Here is a table of the Sector ETFs which serve as an additional benchmark to the portfolio stock holdings.

Sector-by-Sector Performance (with ETF Benchmarks)

Clean Power Supply – Solar

Solar rebounded meaningfully in January. The TAN solar ETF gained 9.6%, reflecting renewed interest in electricity generation tied to rising load growth. Green Edge’s solar holdings significantly outpaced the ETF, suggesting stock selection—not just sector exposure—drove results. This is an encouraging sign after a prolonged period where solar performance lagged fundamentals.

Clean Power Supply – Nuclear

Nuclear continued its quiet but powerful advance. The NLR nuclear ETF rose 19.7%, making it one of the strongest-performing sector benchmarks for the month. Green Edge’s nuclear names kept pace and, in some cases, exceeded the ETF’s move, reinforcing nuclear’s role as a critical baseload solution for AI-driven power demand.

Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility

Grid infrastructure posted solid gains in January, with the GRID ETF up 7.7%. While respectable, Green Edge’s holdings in this sector delivered substantially stronger performance, reflecting company-specific execution and improving confidence in backlog visibility. As power volatility increases, grid flexibility is becoming one of the most valuable—and investable—parts of the energy stack.

Critical Materials

The REMX ETF gained 15.8% in January, benefiting from renewed interest in strategic materials and domestic supply chains. Green Edge’s critical materials positions performed well alongside the sector, supporting the view that materials are a necessary, if sometimes overlooked, enabler of both AI infrastructure and electrification.

Intelligent Electrification & Autonomy

This was the weakest ETF segment in January, with the IDRV ETF up just 1.1%. That softness carried through to Green Edge’s holdings, which faced pressure amid broader risk repricing in growth-oriented and adoption-driven names. While short-term performance lagged, the long-term thesis around intelligent electrification remains intact—and increasingly important.

Data Movement & Efficiency

The ARTY ETF rose 6.9%, reflecting steady demand for AI-related data and software infrastructure. Green Edge’s performance in this segment was mixed, with one name outperforming the ETF and another lagging. Over time, data efficiency remains a structural tailwind as AI workloads continue to scale rapidly.

AI/HPC Compute & Load Growth

One of the strongest sectors of the month, the DTCR ETF gained 16.0%, driven by accelerating data-center investment and digital infrastructure spending. Green Edge’s holdings in this segment outperformed the ETF, reinforcing the portfolio’s central thesis: AI growth ultimately shows up as power demand, compute load, and physical infrastructure investment.

Why the ETF Comparison Matters

The ETF portfolio provides a clean, rules-based benchmark for each sector. January’s results show that Green Edge outperformance wasn’t just a beta effect—it came from targeted exposure and stock selection within each theme.

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Looking Forward

January gave us a welcome tailwind, but this portfolio was never built to sprint through the calendar. The Green Edge AI-Energy Infrastructure Portfolio is anchored in long-duration themes—power, compute, materials, and grid assets—that play out over years, not weeks. February may bring more volatility as markets digest policy shifts, earnings follow-through, and geopolitical noise, and that’s part of the process. Our focus remains on owning durable infrastructure tied to real demand, staying patient through short-term swings, and letting the math work over time. We’ll take the early gains, keep our footing, and continue running the race we planned from the start.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

Every January, I publish one edition of Green Edge that is intentionally different from the rest. It isn’t a portfolio update or stock pitch.

It’s my attempt to make specific, measurable predictions about markets, the economy, and a few “will it happen or nots”. Also, we dig in on one key theme. This year, I address the clean-energy–AI infrastructure buildout - bubble bursts or continuation of expansion.

Although we know full well that some of these will be wrong, that’s the point.

If you’re not willing to write predictions down — with numbers attached — you’re might not be thinking thoroughly about risk, incentives, or where consensus thinking may be fragile.

NOTE: the results from last year’s predictions are provided at the end of this edition.

With that disclaimer out of the way, here are my 2026 predictions. One additional “disclaimer”, if we have a Black Swan event in 2026, all bets are off (except the Super Bowl prediction).

This edition is fairly long to get all the picks in. So, I decided to allow for cheating. Here is the TL;DR table of predictions (at the risk of having you not read the rest). Enjoy!

⚡ AI, Energy & the “Bubble” Question

Many analysts argue that AI is in a bubble.

If that’s true, it won’t show up first in stock prices — it will show up in energy forecasts.

The Green Edge thesis rests on the idea that AI-driven electricity demand is structural, not cyclical. If that thesis is wrong, utilities will begin cutting long-term capacity plans.

My prediction ⤵️

In other words, if AI were truly a bubble, the energy buildout would slow.

I don’t think it does.

That’s the tell.

How will we know? Bloomberg NEF published this report that compares its first forecast (April 2025) with the revised forecast seven months later (December 2025) — up 36%. We will look for updates to this report in 2026 for confirmation.

📈 S&P 500 Index Prediction

Last year, I predicted a sharp rally followed by a pullback, with the S&P 500 finishing around 6,925. I didn’t quite nail the trajectory of the price movements during the year as I had predicted the index could spike as high as 8,500 — but the destination was close, with the index ending the year near 6,845. The prediction edition now has two years in a row of nearly hitting the Index prediction on the nose (~1% off in both 2024 and 2025).

Entering 2026, I seriously considered extending that call—arguing that if a reckoning was coming, perhaps it was simply delayed into this year. After revisiting the data, past annual results after three years of double-digit returns, and—most importantly—the mechanism driving today’s growth, I’ve changed my mind. The current environment looks far less like a late-cycle excess and far more like the late 1990s, when the first wave of transformational internet technology began reshaping the economy.

In that earlier era, the S&P 500 delivered three years of strong double-digit gains—and skeptics were loud. Bubble warnings intensified in 1997 and 1998, yet the market went on to post two additional years of 20%+ returns before the cycle ultimately broke. The mistake wasn’t identifying excess; it was being early. AI feels similar today. It is not a speculative theme searching for a use case—it is a general-purpose technology already embedded in enterprise budgets, infrastructure planning, and national strategy. Capital spending on compute, power, data centers, and grid infrastructure continues to rise, not fall. That is not what a bursting bubble looks like.

This doesn’t mean risks are absent. Valuations are elevated, expectations are high, and policy support matters more than usual. But the near-term incentives are clear. Continued AI build-out provides a durable growth engine, while Trump-era policy priorities are clearly aligned with keeping financial conditions supportive and asset prices firm heading into the mid-term elections. Put simply, no one in charge is trying to prick this cycle in 2026. With that backdrop, my revised outlook calls for the S&P 500 to finish the year at 8,250, extending the AI-led expansion rather than ending it. The bubble may still come—but history suggests that transformative technologies rarely peak in year three. More often, they run longer than skeptics expect.

Using 100 as the base year value, the blue line shows 1995 to 1999 S&P 500 Index appreciation and compares to the orange line representing 2023 to 2026. In looking at the graph, it almost looks like 8,250 might be a low projection. 😀

₿ Bitcoin — Year-End 2026

For years, Bitcoin investors leaned heavily on the four-year halving cycle as a roadmap. In that framework, the fourth year historically delivered strong gains.

2025 broke that pattern.

Bitcoin finished the year down roughly 6%, a sharp departure from prior cycles. Many see this as a warning sign. I see it as evidence that the old framework no longer applies.

Bitcoin has crossed a structural threshold:

• Institutional ownership is now meaningful

• Spot ETFs and custody infrastructure are mature

• Large investment firms are openly recommending low single-digit portfolio allocations

Under the old model, a “Year 1” following a peak implied an 80% drawdown. I don’t believe that’s realistic anymore.

Instead, the move from roughly $126,000 down to ~$80,000 may have already served as the cycle correction. Could we see downside into the $60k’s or $70k’s? Absolutely. Volatility remains part of the deal.

Prediction: $137,500 (+57% vs. 2025 close)

But by the end of 2026, I expect Bitcoin to reclaim and exceed prior highs, closing the year above $126,000, with a target around $137,500.

This is not a blow-off top call. It’s a market that is maturing call. Of course, bitcoin can run hard when momentum and investor confidence is amped up. There is potential for price to hit $170,000’s during the year (my 2025 prediction number).

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🏦 Fed Policy, Inflation & Employment

As in past years, I think it is important to look at macroeconomic data since these factors can drive asset prices. Having an opinion on where the trends are and where they might go over the next 12 months can provide a backdrop for our investment thesis.

In 2025, fed funds rate dropped 0.75%, inflation was steady at 2.7%, and the unemployment rate rose 0.4% to 4.6%. With that in mind, here are the predictions for macro data for 2026.

Fed Funds Rate

Prediction: Down 1.0% total during 2026

I expect a clear shift in monetary policy this year. President Trump is likely to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when Powell’s term expires in May 2026, installing a successor more dovish on rates.

The incentives are straightforward:

• Support asset prices

• Sustain economic momentum

• Minimize recession risk ahead of mid-terms

I expect:

• An initial 0.50% cut, likely following the Chair transition

• Followed by two additional 0.25% cuts later in the year

This is less than Trump will want as it is likely we will not have conquered inflation — and may even see an uptick in 2H-2026.

Inflation (CPI)

Prediction: Ends 2026 at 2.9%

Inflation will prove stubborn.

Lower rates and fiscal stimulus push inflation higher, while:

• Low oil prices

• Stabilizing housing costs

• Healthier supply chains

Push it lower.

I expect inflation to dip by as much as 0.5% during the year (as low as 2.2%), before re-accelerating modestly in the second half of the year — finishing at 2.9%.

Unemployment Rate

Prediction: Ends 2026 at 4.9%
Expected range: 4.5% – 5.2%

AI productivity gains reduce the need for incremental hiring, while lower interest rates support job creation. These forces largely offset one another.

The result: a labor market that cools slightly but remains far from recessionary.

Quick chart showing 2024 levels, 2025 prediction and results, and the 2026 prediction.

🌱 Green Edge AI–Energy Infrastructure Portfolio — Relative Performance

The prediction for the 2026 performance of the Green Edge portfolio ⤵️

Green Edge is not designed to be a complete portfolio, but it is built to capitalize on the main drivers of the economy — energy, power, and AI.

It is intentionally concentrated — built around six core market segments, with two high-conviction companies in each, all tied to one unifying thesis:
AI-driven energy and infrastructure demand.

This is not a one-year trade.
Our thesis spans the next three to five years and is grounded in:

• Sustained electricity load growth

• Grid modernization and resilience

• AI compute and data-center infrastructure

• Capital spending cycles that extend well beyond a single economic year

Volatility is expected. Drawdowns are inevitable. But we believe these structural tailwinds give the Green Edge portfolio a persistent advantage over broad index exposure.

However, since the portfolio is invested in higher beta companies, if the market has a losing year, Green Edge could be much lower.

🗳️ 2026 Mid-Term Elections — Markets & Power

Mid-term elections will be front and center of attention in the U.S. for the next 11 months. Watch for decisions, policies, and rhetoric (from both sides) that are directly related to garnering votes. Entering 2026, Republicans hold narrow control of both chambers:

• A slim majority in the House (220 to 212 with 3 vacancies)

• A razor-thin margin in the Senate (53 to 47)

President Trump enters the mid-term year with weak approval ratings, particularly on the economy. As a result, I expect aggressive efforts to improve voter sentiment:

• Higher asset prices

• Lower interest rates

• More money in people’s pockets

Is it enough?

My prediction ⤵️

This outcome produces policy gridlock, not reversal. And for markets, gridlock often reduces tail risk.

For energy, infrastructure, and AI-related capital spending, the long-term trajectory remains intact.

Fun Topics: Oscars & Super Bowl 🏆🏈

As always, I like to end the prediction letter with a couple of fun, low-stakes markets. Similar to the past few years, that means a swing at Best Picture (the Academy Awards are in March) and a Super Bowl winner (only about five weeks away).

I’ll admit I’m less confident on the Oscars this year. I haven’t seen many of the Golden Globe–nominated films yet, and the official Oscar nominations won’t be announced until January 22. That said, I’ll still take a position. My pick is Hamnet. I thought it was very good—whether it’s Best Picture good remains to be seen. Prediction markets (Kalshi) currently have it sitting around third or fourth, which feels about right for now.

The Super Bowl pick is a little easier emotionally, if not analytically. I’d love to choose my Green Bay Packers, but after dropping their last four games, realism has to prevail. While they have a solid chance to beat the Chicago Bears in the opener, it’s hard to see them making a deep run. More likely, they’d run into the eventual champs—my pick this year—the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle handled business convincingly against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18 and earned the Week 1 bye, setting them up well for a title run.

Fun predictions only—but bragging rights still count.

Until the January update edition…

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

PS Here are last year’s prediction results.

What’s Changing as We Head Into 2026

At the end of 2025, the Green Edge portfolio consisted of EOSE, IREN, MP, RIVN, CLSK, FSLR, and SMR, alongside a deliberate decision to take profits during October and November—raising cash to roughly one-third of the portfolio. That move was not a shift in conviction, but a recognition that many of the core themes had moved quickly and that 2026 would offer a cleaner opportunity to redeploy capital with structure and intent. Heading into the new year, most of that cash is being redeployed on day one of 2026, with approximately 8% intentionally held back to take advantage of volatility and new opportunities. The biggest change, however, isn’t the individual stocks—it’s the framework. Rather than a single list of high-conviction names, the 2026 Green Edge Portfolio is now organized into six core infrastructure segments (with clean power supply split into solar and nuclear), creating clearer exposure to where capital is flowing across the AI-driven energy transition and allowing positions to evolve within each segment over time.

The name of the portfolio is changing from “Clean Energy” to “AI-Energy Infrastructure”. Following the performance charts below, I will get into a deeper dive of the six segments, the why, and which stocks were selected in each of these segments for the next year.

Market Performance

Across the major indices, markets were roughly flat in December, closing out a year that nonetheless delivered strong annual gains for the third consecutive year. The S&P 500 finished up approximately 16%, while the NASDAQ gained about 20%, reflecting continued strength in large-cap, growth-oriented stocks. In contrast, the equal-weighted S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 lagged, posting gains of roughly 9% and 11%, respectively—highlighting the ongoing concentration of returns in larger-cap names.

Bitcoin ended the year down roughly 6%, a result that defied expectations based on the historical four-year halving cycle, where year four has typically produced outsized gains. While Bitcoin did peak near $126,000—about 35% above where it began the year—it closed the year closer to $87,500. This outcome raises the possibility that the traditional four-year cycle may be evolving. That may ultimately be constructive for Bitcoin longer term, as prior cycle resets often included 80% drawdowns in year one. I’ll explore this further in my 2026 Predictions Newsletter, coming out next week.

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

The 2025 Green Edge Clean Energy Portfolio gained 87% for the year—a result well worth celebrating—although the portfolio had been up as much as 125% in early November before markets pulled back. The late-year volatility served as a reminder that strong returns can compress quickly when sentiment shifts.

In December, the portfolio declined nearly 10% as many of 2025’s highest-flying stocks sold off sharply into year-end. Fortunately, the portfolio carried an average cash position of roughly 35–40% during the month, which helped materially limit the downside. On an individual basis, CLSK fell by roughly one-third, SMR declined 29%, and two of the year’s strongest performers—IREN and EOSE—pulled back 21% and 23.9%, respectively. RIVN was the notable exception, gaining 16.9% for the month as the stock broke out of a long consolidation pattern.

Looking ahead to 2026, five of the seven holdings will remain in the core portfolio. Two positions were exited: CLSK, which is being replaced by CIFR, and FSLR, which moves to the large-cap watchlist. The core Green Edge holdings heading into 2026 are EOSE, IREN, RIVN, MP, and SMR.

Introducing the 2026 Green Edge AI-Energy Infrastructure Portfolio

As we head into 2026, Green Edge is evolving—not away from clean energy, but toward a clearer, more structured way of capturing where capital is actually being deployed across the energy transition and AI infrastructure build-out.

Rather than a single list of stocks, the 2026 Green Edge Portfolio is organized into six core infrastructure segments, each representing a critical layer of the modern energy-and-compute stack. One of those segments—Clean Power Supply—is further split into solar and nuclear, reflecting the fundamentally different roles those technologies play in the grid.

Each segment includes two core holdings. The goal is not diversification for its own sake, but intentional exposure to the most important bottlenecks, enablers, and growth drivers shaping the rest of this decade.

The Six Core Green Edge Segments

1. Clean Power Supply

Where electrons originate

Reliable, scalable power is the foundation of everything that follows—AI data centers, electrified transportation, and industrial reshoring. This segment is intentionally split into two sub-segments:

1A – Solar

• TE (T1 Energy) – Utility-scale solar deployment and EPC leverage

• ARRY (Array Technologies) – Solar tracking systems, tied directly to U.S. build-out volumes

1B – Nuclear

• SMR (NuScale Power) – Small modular reactors and next-gen nuclear deployment

• BWXT (BWX Technologies) – Nuclear components, fuel, and defense-backed nuclear infrastructure

Solar addresses speed and scale. Nuclear addresses baseload reliability.

2. Energy Storage & Grid Flexibility

Making intermittent power usable

As renewable penetration increases, storage and grid orchestration become essential—not optional.

• EOSE (EOS Energy) – Long-duration energy storage for grid-scale balancing

• FLNC (Fluence Energy) – Software-driven storage deployment at utility scale

This segment focuses on when power is available, not just how much.

3. Critical Materials

The physical inputs behind electrification

Electrification and energy storage depend on secure, domestic material supply chains.

• MP (MP Materials) – Rare earth magnets essential for EVs, wind, and defense

• LAC (Lithium Americas) – Lithium supply critical to batteries and grid storage

This segment reflects a long-term thesis around materials as strategic assets, not commodities.

4. Intelligent Electrification & Autonomy

Where software meets hardware

Electrification alone isn’t enough—systems must become smarter, safer, and more autonomous.

• RIVN (Rivian Auto) – Software-defined electric vehicles and vertical integration

• MBLY (Mobileye Global) – Vision systems and autonomy infrastructure

This segment captures the transition from “electric” to intelligent electric systems.

5. Data Movement & Efficiency

The plumbing of AI

AI is constrained less by compute than by how fast data can move and be processed efficiently.

• AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) – Optical components enabling high-speed data transfer

• POET (POET Technologies) – Photonics integration improving efficiency and performance

This segment sits at the intersection of AI growth and energy efficiency.

6. AI / HPC Compute & Load Growth

Where power demand explodes

The final segment focuses on the physical infrastructure required to support AI and high-performance computing.

• IREN (IREN Limited) – Power-dense data center infrastructure with energy leverage

• CIFR (Cipher Mining) – Compute-focused infrastructure transitioning beyond crypto

This is where AI demand translates directly into megawatts, land, and capital investment.

Why This Structure Matters

This new format allows Green Edge to:

• Track capital flow across the full energy-to-AI value chain

• Avoid over-concentration in any single technology

• Make it easier to rotate within segments as leaders change

• Clearly explain why each holding exists in the portfolio

Importantly, this is not meant to be a complete portfolio. It’s a focused, high-conviction framework designed to identify the companies best positioned at the intersection of:

Clean energy, electrification, AI infrastructure, and grid transformation

Beyond the Core

In addition to the two core positions in each segment, I’ve identified alternate holdings that can be rotated in if a core stock underperforms or if relative opportunities change. These alternates are preferably mid-cap companies ($2B–$10B market cap), though I’ve broadened the range to $1B–$20B to capture the best opportunities within each theme.

To provide additional context across the risk spectrum, each segment also includes two large-cap companies (over $20B market cap) for stability and scale, as well as one small-cap company (under $1B) for investors seeking higher risk-reward potential. Finally, a sector ETF is selected for each segment to serve as a benchmark against which individual stock performance can be measured.

The table below summarizes all tickers across these categories.

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Since I love new starts, really looking forward to what 2026 brings. And make sure you keep a look-out for the 2026 Predictions newsletter coming in the next week or so.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

In the past few months, we’ve been trimming some of our high-flyers in the Green Edge portfolio and have successfully raised our cash position to over 34%. That turned out to be helpful—while our holdings took a meaningful hit in November, the elevated cash cushion softened the drawdown.

Now the question is what to do next: deploy a portion of that cash, keep sitting tight, or even raise more? Because Green Edge is leaning heavily into the power side of the AI data-center build-out, it makes sense to assess where that trend stands today.

Much of the market conversation now centers on whether we’re in an AI bubble. Nvidia—still the face of AI—ran up an astonishing 145% from the April 7th low to its October 29th all-time high, only to give back nearly 17% by the end of November. Hyperscalers Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft also pulled back 15–20% in early November. Yet Nvidia’s CEO continues to point to the same bottleneck: power. There simply may not be enough electricity available to plug in all the GPUs the market wants.

That’s exactly why I think our thesis—and our stock picks—remain strong heading into the next 12 months, even if recent share prices are down from their highs. The grid is going to need all the solar power and battery capacity manufacturers can produce and developers can install. In addition, if a company has available MW data center capacity in the next 2-3 years, it is very valuable.

I’m more cautious on nuclear names. The hype cycle has pushed valuations far ahead of revenues that are still five to ten years out, and several stocks in the space are now down 50% or more. (That could, ironically, make them interesting again if another hype cycle kicks in—but timing that is tricky.)

This month I’ve added three companies to the watch list: two solar manufacturers and one former bitcoin miner now pivoting into AI/HPC data-center development. I’ll dive deeper into one of them later in the newsletter as a potential addition to the portfolio.

One final note: stock prices and fundamentals don’t always move in sync. Even the best stories can get pulled down by broader sentiment. With that in mind, I’m excited to publish my 2026 Predictions newsletter in early January.

Market Performance

The S&P 500 fell 4.6% during the first half of November but rallied sharply in the final 10 days to finish the month barely positive at +0.1%. The Nasdaq followed a similar arc—dropping 8.6% before recovering to end November down only –1.5%. Under the surface, market breadth was slightly stronger: the equal-weight S&P 500 gained 1.7% and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 0.7%, hinting at a modest rotation into value and interest-sensitive names.

Bitcoin was hit even harder, sliding from roughly $110K to $90K during the month and dragging the broader crypto complex with it. For the year, Bitcoin now sits at –3.7%, a sharp contrast to the S&P 500’s +16.4% gain.

The early-month equity stumble was driven largely by weakness in technology—particularly AI-linked stocks—which pressured both the Nasdaq and broader indexes. But sentiment shifted late in the month as investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in December, fueling a rebound into month-end. These swings highlight the underlying tension in markets: stretched AI valuations, persistent macro uncertainty, and the question of whether rate-cut optimism is already fully priced in.

As for a Santa Claus rally? Hard to say. A push to new all-time highs would certainly lift spirits, but with bulls and bears locked in a tight tug-of-war—and major indexes already coming off three consecutive years of double-digit gains—the final weeks of 2025 could be choppy.

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

The Green Edge portfolio finished November down 8.7%, with our 34% cash position helping to cushion what would have otherwise been a sharper correction. Even with the pullback, the portfolio remains up more than 100% year-to-date.

First Solar (FSLR) held up impressively, gaining 2.2% and continuing to buck the broader trend. The company is steadily expanding domestic manufacturing capacity and remains in a strong financial position to fund its long pipeline of growth. Rivian (RIVN) also delivered standout performance, climbing 24% on the back of a strong quarterly report. Despite regulatory uncertainty, the company made notable progress toward the launch of its smaller R2 SUV—expected in the first half of 2026—which is designed to compete directly with Tesla’s Model Y, the best-selling EV in the U.S. and globally.

Green Edge executed two transactions in November. We added 200 shares of NuScale (SMR) at $21.69, aiming to keep the position around 5% of the portfolio and take advantage of what looks like a “50% off” sale. Whether nuclear’s hype cycle returns—or whether the theme has already played out—remains an open question. We also exited Enovix (ENVX) after earnings. Concerns remain about whether their battery technology will be ready as quickly as promised, so we’re stepping aside for now and moving it to the watchlist.

Three new stocks were added to the broader watchlist this month:

1. T1 Energy (TE) — a U.S. solar manufacturer;

2. Cipher (CIFR) — a bitcoin miner pivoting into AI/HPC data-center development, similar to IREN;

3. Spruce Power (SPRU) — an operator of distributed residential solar assets.

Of these, CIFR is well-positioned but has run up substantially, and SPRU’s exposure to the residential solar market keeps it in the “wait and see” category for now. That leaves T1 Energy—a domestic solar manufacturing play that could complement our existing First Solar position. Because of that overlap and potential strategic fit, I’ve included a deeper dive and comparison in the next section.

🌞 Evaluating T1 Energy (TE) for the Green Edge Portfolio

1. Why Solar Demand Is Set to Surge (2025–2030)

AI + HPC data centers = massive new power demand

• 15–20% annual electricity load growth expected

• Utilities need fast, cheap, scalable generation

• Solar is the fastest deployable MW on the grid

• IRA incentives + domestic manufacturing push = huge tailwind

2. Current Exposure: Green Edge Already Owns FSLR (6%)

First Solar = Core U.S. solar manufacturer

• Profitable, scaled, IRA-backed

• Strong moat with CdTe thin-film tech

• Long-term utility-scale contracts + visibility

FSLR covers the “Deployment at Scale” bucket.

3. TE vs. FSLR — Side-by-Side Snapshot

Interpretation:
TE = high-beta optionality.
FSLR = quality growth compounder.

4. How TE Fits Into the Portfolio

What TE adds that FSLR doesn’t:

• Early-stage domestic solar manufacturing exposure

• High-upside optionality if it becomes “America’s #2 solar champion”

• Leverages AI-driven electricity demand supercycle

How it would be sized:

• Starter position only

• Small allocation that grows only as TE proves execution

• Complements, not replaces, the 6% FSLR core

5. Timing Matters: TE Just Jumped +60% This Week

Green Edge rules: We don’t chase parabolic moves.

Plan:

• Wait for 15–25% pullback

• Watch for volume normalization

• Initiate a small position only when risk/reward resets

• Add on execution milestones (G1 stability, G2 funding, margin progress)

Bottom Line

Solar demand is about to explode.
FSLR is our anchor.
TE is a potential high-upside complement — but only at the right price.

Cash at 34% gives us optionality.
Patience gives us edge.

Hope that you had a nice Thanksgiving holiday. Enjoy December!

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

Last week, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon all reported Q3 earnings—and the theme was unmistakable: massive increases in CapEx to expand AI data center infrastructure.

On Microsoft’s call, Satya Nadella made one of the most revealing comments of the entire AI cycle: Microsoft has racks of Nvidia GPUs sitting idle because there isn’t enough power to turn them on. The real constraint isn’t compute anymore—it’s energy and data center capacity.

That shift changes everything. If GPUs are easy to buy but power is hard to secure, leverage moves to whoever controls energy and infrastructure. Access to energized data centers has become the new gatekeeper for AI scale.

Every new data center that Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are planning now requires hundreds of megawatts of steady power. Bringing that energy online takes years. The companies that locked in power early and built vertically across the stack now hold the real advantage. Hyperscaler growth is no longer defined by how many GPUs they can order, but by how quickly they can energize new capacity.

This has been a core theme of the Green Edge portfolio. We’ve focused on the players with powered data centers ready to deploy—Bitcoin miners turned AI/HPC developers like IREN and CLSK. We’ve targeted new generation sources to power them—nuclear (SMR) and solar (FSLR). And we’ve included enabling technologies like long-duration storage (EOSE) that turn renewables into dependable assets, and U.S.-based rare earths (MP) to secure the supply chain.

If you’ve been in these stocks since early in the year—or longer—congratulations. It’s been one hell of a ride.

If you’re just now saying, “I’ve seen the light and want in,” there’s still time. The trend has plenty of energy left, though entry points require more patience and discipline.

After strong runs, we’ve seen healthy corrections: IREN from $74 down to $51 (-31%), EOSE from $19 to $12.50 (-34%), MP from $100 to $62 (-38%), and SMR from $57 to $32 (-44%)—most have since rebounded from their October lows. The best approach now is to just get in at some level and start to dollar-cost average (DCA) over time. The powered data center story won’t be solved in the next two or three years—it’s just getting started.

*** Monday morning NEWS before publishing this edition ***

MICROSOFT (MSFT) SIGNS $9.7B AI CLOUD DEAL WITH IREN (IREN) FOR AI CLOUD CAPACITY

AMAZON WEB SERVICES SIGNS $5.5B, 15-YEAR LEASE WITH CIPHER MINING (CIFR)

Both stocks are up 20%+ in pre-market

Market Performance

Nvidia (NVDA) became the first company in history to surpass a $5 trillion market cap, with shares climbing above $200 and up roughly 50% year-to-date. Google is the second-biggest gainer among the “Mag 7,” up 48% YTD. Meanwhile, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla have all posted more modest gains between 8% and 22%—just a touch above the NASDAQ’s 22.9% YTD rise.

The NASDAQ has now delivered 20%+ annual returns for the third straight year, while the S&P 500 trails only slightly at +16% YTD. But the truly eye-popping numbers come from the rally off the April 7 “Liberation Day” lows: the QQQ (tracking the NASDAQ-100) is up 58% from April 7 to October 29, while the SPY (S&P 500) has gained 43% over the same stretch.

This may be the most hated rally in memory. Market commentators keep calling tops, yet the indexes keep pushing higher. Since June 27, the SPY has closed at a new all-time high 33 times—and still, the Fear & Greed Index shows Fear. At all-time highs. Strange.

Beneath the surface, performance has been uneven. The equal-weight S&P 500 declined for the month and now trails the cap-weighted index by roughly nine percentage points YTD. The Russell 2000 small-cap index continues to lag as well, up only 10% YTD.

In crypto, Bitcoin has been moving sideways for five months. It’s currently trading near $110,000, roughly where it stood in late May, despite briefly touching a new all-time high of $126,296 on October 6—yet it still hasn’t logged a daily close above $125,000. Bitcoin dominance has crept higher from 57% to 60% of total crypto market cap in the last six weeks, signaling that the rest of the crypto complex hasn’t participated in the broader market rally. The question now: is this just a pause before a catch-up trade in crypto, or the start of a new phase where equities outperform digital assets?

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

The Green Edge portfolio gained +21.5% in October and is now up +127.4% year-to-date. Of the eight active holdings, six surged more than 20% in October — EOSE, IREN, SMR, CLSK, and ENVX among them. It’s been an amazing (and fun) run. But as I like to remind myself: if profits remain unrealized, are they really profits? (Hint: not yet.)

Taking Profits

This month I decided to lock in part of those gains and raise cash to roughly 30% of the portfolio. In October, I trimmed 20% of IREN and 17% of EOSE, though they remain the top two positions at 19% and 14% of the portfolio, respectively. I also sold 10% of SMR and 30% of FSLR ahead of earnings, following Enphase’s disappointing results. In fact, ENPH once again proved it’s too early to own this dog — I exited the entire position at -13%. Ironically, FSLR then jumped +14% on Friday after reporting a strong Q3.

First Solar (FSLR)

First Solar delivered a standout quarter with 5.3 GW of sales, a company record, and earnings of $4.24 per share. The company’s financial position remains strong, and it continues to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity. Its Louisiana facility is ahead of schedule and now expected to begin shipments in Q4 2026, reinforcing FSLR’s position as a U.S. solar leader.

GSRT / Terra Innovatum (NKLR)

Last month, I highlighted GSRT as a buy near $10.30, targeting a potential double. The SPAC completed its reverse merger with Terra Innovatum (ticker: NKLR) — and, as expected, volatility followed. The price briefly hit $21.91, hitting the double target, but I wasn’t watching closely enough to exit. I ended up “panic selling” the full position at $16.42 for a 50%+ gain. Since then, shares have corrected sharply below $10, now trading around $8.40 as nuclear names take a breather. I continue to hold a small position in my 401(k) with a new price target of $14.

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The broader theme remains intact: AI-driven data center demand and power scarcity continue to be the defining bottlenecks of this cycle. The companies positioned to solve that problem — across energy, infrastructure, and storage — will remain highly sought after.

With the portfolio up 127% YTD, I’ll likely continue trimming into strength and capturing gains at new highs while holding onto these core positions for the next leg of the energy-AI buildout.

Until next time,
Efficiently yours,
D.T.

My wife and I used the break for a memorable adventure: the Viking Homelands cruise, a 15-day journey that starts in Stockholm and ends in Bergen, winding through the Baltic Sea. We extended our trip with a few pre-cruise days in Stockholm, staying at the Reisen Hotel in the Gamla Stan district. Highlights included sailing through the archipelago, exploring the Vasa Museum and Fotographiska, enjoying fika and wine, and even finding gluten-free Swedish meatballs.

From there, the cruise took us to Estonia (Tallinn), Poland (Gdansk), Germany (Rostock), several stops in Denmark (Bornholm, Copenhagen, Aalborg), and four ports in Norway (Oslo, Stavanger, Eidfjord, Bergen). Norway’s fjords were especially breathtaking and a perfect finale to the trip.

And yes, I tried not to check the markets too often—though thankfully, they waited to rip higher until after I got back. Now, let’s dive into what happened in September.

Market Performance

September is historically the weakest month for stocks, averaging a –0.72% decline since 1950. Not this year. In September 2025, the S&P 500 rose 3.5%, while the NASDAQ surged 5.6%, setting the stage for what could be a wide-ranging Q4 ride.

Back in my 2025 prediction newsletter on January 6, I projected the S&P 500 would finish the year at 6,925—a target that is now only 3.5% away. At the time, it seemed ambitious. By early April, after the index plunged 20% to a low of 4,800, reaching 6,925 felt nearly impossible, requiring a 44% rebound by year-end.

Yet here we are, with the market looking unstoppable. To match last year’s 23% gain, the index would need to hit 7,234, which means just over 8% more upside in Q4. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.

Of course, corrections are inevitable. In 2023, the S&P gained 24% but endured a 10% drop from August to October. In 2024, the index rose 23% but also corrected 10% in July. This year, the S&P is already up 13.7% and has already absorbed its correction—a steep 20% pullback in March and April. That history suggests the market doesn’t necessarily need another double-digit decline before year-end. The bull run may have room to stretch through the next three months, making my 6,925 year-end target look not just solid, but possibly conservative.

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

Energy infrastructure to support AI and high-performance computing (HPC) data centers remains one of the hottest investment themes. The Green Edge Portfolio is well-positioned here, holding companies at the center of this long-term trend, which I expect to run for at least the next five years.

Standout performers:

• EOS Energy (EOSE), the U.S. battery maker, broke out in September—closing the month up 65% to over $11 per share.

• Bitcoin miners, turned into HPC/AI data center providers, Cleanspark (CLSK) and IREN surged 53% and 77%, respectively, after peer Cipher (CIFR) announced a deal with Fluidstack to support Google’s data centers. While Cleanspark and IREN haven’t announced similar partnerships yet, their stocks are being repriced higher as investors recognize the value of their gigawatts of installed and expanding compute capacity.

Nuclear exposure:
NuScale (SMR) had a quieter month, gaining just 4% despite nuclear staying in the spotlight. That’s why we also own GSR III Acquisition (GSRT), a SPAC merging with Terra Innovatum, another nuclear-focused company. With a ~$500 million market cap, I see room for a 2x+ move post-merger as the DOE continues pushing nuclear as a key piece of the future grid.

DOE side note: On a personal note, if you follow the Department of Energy’s social channels, you may share my frustration with their “optimistic” spin. I used to correct their diversions on X, but I’ve since stopped. My hope is simply that they don’t succeed in reviving coal—dirty, uneconomic, and bad for consumers. Soapbox over.

Portfolio concentration:
As of September, IREN makes up 22%, EOSE 15%, and MP 14% of the Green Edge Portfolio. Together, these three account for more than half of total value (despite 10 holdings and 8% cash). While trimming to rebalance is always an option, I believe these names still have significant upside. For now, I’m letting them run to their full potential. We are still in the early innings of the HPC/AI infrastructure buildout.

Fresh opportunities:
If asked what looks best today, I’d point to GSRT. The stock has held steady at its pre-merger price, offering a clean entry before the Terra Innovatum deal closes. With the high-flyers (IREN, EOSE, MP), I’d recommend dollar-cost averaging over the next few months rather than jumping in all at once. Corrections do happen, and they could present better entry points. As always, not financial advice—just how I’m thinking about positioning.

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Good luck in Q4 → may your portfolio continue to grow. While I believe Q4 will be good to great, one should prepare for a reckoning in 2H-2026.

Until next time.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

I’ve been writing this monthly newsletter since November 2020, and frankly, there hasn’t been much to brag about since 2021. So let’s take a moment to celebrate some truly outstanding performance — finally!

It feels counterintuitive that during the Biden administration — with its signature Infrastructure Bill and Inflation Reduction Act — clean energy stocks largely struggled. Yet under the return of an anti-green Trump administration, stock prices are suddenly surging.

Much of this, I believe, comes down to timing and expectations. Clean energy stocks soared in 2020 and into early 2021 on enthusiasm around Biden’s election and early plans to expand federal investment in clean technologies. The NASDAQ Clean Energy ETF (QCLN), which we’ve followed closely, posted outsized returns in 2020 — beating the S&P 500’s +18% by over 10x — as markets rebounded from COVID and priced in a more climate-friendly administration.

Then came the reversal. Calendar year 2022 was tough for all equities, but QCLN continued to struggle with double-digit losses in both 2023 and 2024, even as the broader market gained over 20% each of those years. But since bottoming on April 8 of this year, QCLN has rallied sharply — up 56% through the July 22 high.

Our Green Edge portfolio performed even better, finishing +11.9% in 2024, outperforming QCLN and highlighting the importance of smart stock selection. What’s worked? Companies with U.S.-based manufacturing and sourcing, technologies aligned with the infrastructure demands of AI data centers, strong leadership teams, and clear sector dominance.

A prime example is First Solar (FSLR). The company has built a robust U.S. manufacturing base, focuses heavily on utility-scale projects (versus residential-side solar), and remains a proven industry leader. Compare FSLR’s five-year return to the broader solar ETF (TAN), and the gap is significant — a +152.3% gain versus -28.8% loss.

On the company’s July 31 earnings call, CEO Mark Widmar noted, “First Solar is in a greater position of strength after the passage of President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill than it was following former President Biden's landmark 2022 climate law.” He expects the new legislation to boost demand for domestically produced solar panels while tightening eligibility for tax credits on products tied to China.

Looking ahead, the next five years will be critical in meeting the soaring demand for electricity from data centers, electric vehicles, and broader electrification. If you're starting from scratch today: a natural gas power plant is 4–7 years away, nuclear is 6–12 years out, but solar plus storage can be deployed in as little as 18 months.

Renewables will continue to account for the majority of added new generation capacity through 2030. But if current policies undermine incentives and slow development, the result will be higher energy costs for everyone — including you and me.

NOTE: The Green Edge newsletter will take August off as my wife and I will be on a trip out of the country. Viking Homelands tour. No August edition.

Market Performance

The major indexes hit all-time highs on Thursday, July 31st, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,427 and the NASDAQ surging to 21,457—up 7.8% and 9.4% year-to-date, respectively.

Once again, the cap-weighted indexes outperformed the equal-weight index, continuing the reversion toward the large-cap “Mag 7” names. The Mag 7 gained +6% in July compared to just +0.9% for the equal-weight S&P, highlighting their continued market leadership.

Two of the mega-cap standouts, Meta and Microsoft, reported Q2 2025 earnings on July 30th. Both companies beat expectations, with Meta jumping 11% and Microsoft rising 4% the next day—contributing significantly to the July 31 index highs. It’s worth noting that those highs were short-lived, as markets dropped nearly 2% on the first trading day of August. It's too early to tell whether this marks a trend reversal or just a quick breather in an overheated market.

The portfolio of five clean energy ETFs gained +6.6% in July—three times the S&P 500’s +2.2% return. That strength helped propel the Green Edge portfolio to a second consecutive month of 20%+ gains.

Bitcoin rose 10% during the month, reaching a new all-time high of $123,200. Interestingly, Bitcoin dominance fell 5% in July, signaling even stronger gains across the broader crypto market. Ethereum soared 48%, as several companies announced they were adding Ethereum (rather than Bitcoin) to their reserves.

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

A great month for the GREEN EDGE Portfolio which tacked on another 22% gain after June’s 23% advancement. MP Materials jetted up 84.9% this month on significant news while battery maker Enovix gained 29.6% and small module nuclear company NuScale added 26.9%.

Below is a table of transactions this month within the portfolio. Took some profit on several of the high-flying tickers in order to raise cash. The cash level closes the month at 14.8% of the portfolio, which gives us some ammunition if we get a late-summer correction.

MP Materials Soars on Strategic Partnerships

MP Materials emerged as a standout performer in July, with its stock price soaring 85% thanks to a wave of high-profile partnerships and rising demand for rare earth materials. Backed by government support and major tech players, MP’s strategic role in building a domestic rare earth supply chain is coming into sharp focus.

The month began with the announcement of a multibillion-dollar agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense, including a $400 million equity investment. The deal underscores MP’s importance in securing a domestic supply of rare earths critical to both defense and clean energy applications.

Just days later, on July 15, MP signed a $500 million agreement with Apple Inc. to supply sustainably sourced, U.S.-manufactured rare earth magnets for iPhones and other devices. This partnership further positions MP as a key player in reducing supply chain dependence on China amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Riding the momentum from these announcements, MP executed a $650 million public stock offering to fund operational expansion. While the stock dipped briefly on the news, investor optimism quickly returned, propelling shares to a 52-week high of $65.04 by the end of July.

At over $60 per share, MP appears somewhat overbought. As a result, the Green Edge portfolio took profits on approximately 17% of its MP position. Even after trimming, MP remains the largest holding in the portfolio, accounting for just over 20% of total value.

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Reminder that I will skip next month’s edition due to vacation schedule, but I’ll return in early October for the September Update and Commentary.

Have a great rest of your summer. Football season is almost here!

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

The Green Edge clean energy portfolio gained over 23% in June, pushing its year-to-date performance to more than 11 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 Index. This strong performance is the result of a consistent investment focus: electricity grid infrastructure and clean energy technologies that will power the next generation of economic growth.

The reason for this focus is simple: energy abundance is the foundation for future productivity gains, especially in an economy increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence. AI offers unprecedented efficiency across industries—but it comes with a massive appetite for power. To deliver on its promise, AI must be supported by inexpensive, reliable, and clean electricity.

From 2000 to 2020, U.S. electricity demand remained mostly flat. But in 2024, consumption grew by 3–4%, driven by AI data centers, reshoring of manufacturing, and the electrification of transportation and heating. Forecasts now suggest that we may need to double grid capacity within the next 15 years—a pace of expansion not seen in decades.

In 2024, over 90% of new electricity generation in the U.S. came from renewable sources, led by solar (more than 60%), along with wind and battery storage. These sources are the most cost-effective and fastest to deploy. Yet, recent policy signals from the current administration could slow this progress. Proposals to increase permitting complexity for solar and wind, alongside efforts to promote new natural gas, nuclear, and even coal plants, risk undermining momentum.

The problem with fossil fuel-based generation—beyond carbon emissions and pollution—is that it's more expensive and slower to bring online. If you ordered a new gas turbine today, it likely wouldn't be operational until 2032, due to backlogged supply chains. Nuclear would take even longer. Coal, aside from being dirty and climate-hostile, is increasingly uneconomic.

When I launched the Green Edge newsletter in November 2020, my core thesis was that the 2020s would be the decade of transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. That conviction remains unchanged. But the language of the transition is evolving. It's no longer just about cutting carbon—it’s about achieving energy abundance to support economic and technological growth. And the fastest, cleanest, cheapest way to add new kilowatt-hours to the grid remains the same: solar, wind, and battery systems.

While nuclear is more expensive and slower to scale, it’s also getting significant attention—and funding—from policymakers. This makes it an increasingly interesting area for long-term investment. That’s why we’ve built measured exposure to the nuclear sector within the Green Edge portfolio.

I’ve gathered up a handful of charts that are very interesting and timely to the current discussion around needs for energy, sources, and competition with China. Sharing four of them below.

Chart 1. If energy abundance equals economic winning, China currently leads.

Chart 2. If the Senate passes the Big, Beautiful Bill (in the final debate as I write this), analysis shows a likelihood of increased prices consumers will pay for electricity. By state estimates below:

Chart 3. A big reason for the price increases is the risk that planned, cost-effective, renewable projects stall. Here is a graphic of clean energy capacity at risk by technology.

Chart 4. Renewable energy is the second largest source of generation in the U.S. behind natural gas. Renewables are the sum of solar, wind, hydro, biomass, and geothermal.

Market Performance

All major benchmarks, except the small-cap Russell 2000, are in positive territory year-to-date. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are up +5.5% YTD. The equal-weight S&P index lagged in June and now trails the market-cap-weighted index, signaling that the “Magnificent Seven” are once again driving returns. Notably, Nvidia surged 17% and Meta gained 14% during the month.

Bitcoin rose 2.4% in June, underperforming equities for the month but still leading year-to-date with a 14.7% gain versus 5.5% for the S&P and NASDAQ. The broader cryptocurrency market was flat, allowing Bitcoin's dominance—the percentage of Bitcoin's market cap relative to the entire crypto market—to rise nearly 1% to 64.4%. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin dominance has increased from 58% to 64%, indicating that Bitcoin has significantly outperformed the rest of the crypto sector in 2025.

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GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

It was a phenomenal month for the portfolio, up 23% in June. IREN and MP led the way up 73.7% and 52.7%, respectively. Electric vehicle companies Tesla and Rivian were the only negatives, but our portfolio does not include Tesla as shares were sold in April. Still looking to re-enter, but only under $250. I did add one new company - a SPAC - to the portfolio, so it will show up on the list next month.

Portfolio Activity in June

• Sold 150 shares (29% of position) of SMR at $40.32 per share for a ~124% gain.

• Used proceeds from SMR (plus some of cash) to purchase 800 shares of GSRT) at $11.21 to make up 7.7% of the portfolio. This is a SPAC that is targeting a company in the nuclear sector.

The portfolio continues to hold about a 10% cash position, which may be deployed this month into the most promising opportunity(ies).

IREN’s 73% stock price increase in June 2025 was driven by its strong Bitcoin mining performance, strategic pivot to AI infrastructure, a successful convertible notes offering, and bullish analyst sentiment, amplified by a favorable crypto and tech market environment. The company’s ability to execute on its 50 EH/s mining target and progress in AI data center development positioned it as a high-growth player, though investors should remain mindful of potential capital needs and market volatility.

Bitcoin miners with HPC/AI Infrastructure in a clean energy portfolio

Bitcoin miners can be included in a clean energy portfolio due to their potential to leverage renewable energy sources, enhance grid stability, and align with sustainable investment goals. Here’s a concise breakdown of the key reasons:

1. Use of Renewable Energy:

   • Many Bitcoin miners, like IREN Limited, prioritize low-cost, renewable energy sources such as hydroelectric, solar, or wind power to reduce operational costs. For example, IREN operates data centers powered by renewable energy, minimizing carbon footprints.

   • The Bitcoin Mining Council’s Q2 2024 report estimated that 59.9% of global Bitcoin mining energy comes from sustainable sources, higher than most traditional industries.

2. Grid Stabilization and Demand Response:

   • Bitcoin miners can act as flexible load operators, adjusting energy consumption during peak demand to stabilize power grids. This supports renewable energy integration by absorbing excess power when supply exceeds demand (e.g., during high solar or wind output).

   • Miners like IREN participate in demand response programs, curtailing operations to return power to the grid during shortages, enhancing energy reliability.

3. Repurposing Stranded Energy:

   • Miners often utilize stranded or underused renewable energy sources, such as excess hydroelectric power in remote regions, that would otherwise go to waste. This maximizes the efficiency of clean energy infrastructure.

4. Alignment with ESG Goals:

   • Companies like IREN emphasize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles by investing in energy-efficient hardware and carbon-neutral operations. This appeals to investors seeking sustainable portfolios.

   • Some miners like CleanSpark offset emissions through carbon credits or invest in renewable energy projects, further aligning with clean energy objectives.

5. Economic Incentives for Renewables:

   • The high energy demands of Bitcoin mining incentivize the development of new renewable energy projects, as miners seek cost-effective, long-term power sources. This can accelerate the transition to clean energy infrastructure.

6. Portfolio Diversification:

   • Including Bitcoin miners in a clean energy portfolio offers exposure to the growing cryptocurrency sector while maintaining a focus on sustainability. Miners like IREN, with dual focus on Bitcoin and AI infrastructure, provide diversification across high-growth industries.

Considerations

• Energy Intensity: Bitcoin mining’s high energy consumption can raise concerns if not paired with renewables, so investors should prioritize miners with transparent clean energy commitments.

• Volatility: Crypto-related stocks are volatile, which may conflict with the stability sought in clean energy portfolios.

• Regulatory Risks: Evolving regulations on crypto mining’s energy use could impact profitability, requiring careful due diligence.

Have a warm summer. Talk to you in a month.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

After a steep drop of nearly 22% from mid-February to early April, the S&P 500 staged an impressive “V-shaped” recovery—soaring 24.9% through May 29th and ending the month just 3.9% below its all-time high. It’s been a remarkable bounce, but is it sustainable?

This year’s correction, despite the news flow, was overdue. Since the uptrend began in summer 2023, the market had gained more than 50% within its rising channel. As shown in the chart, the orange line marks the 200-day moving average (MA)—a critical level. Once the index broke below its trend line, it sliced through the 200-day MA, attempted to retest it, failed, and dropped further.

Now, the bounce has taken the index back above the 200-day MA, and it recently pulled back to retest that level again—this time holding. That’s potentially bullish. As of May 29th, the S&P closed at 5,903, comfortably above the 200-day MA at 5,795. If it holds, we could be on our way to new highs. But if it breaks down again, the next support zones lie at 5,400 and 5,250—an 11% potential drop.

What could derail this recovery? One major concern: mounting uncertainty around tariffs. The Trump administration continues to stir volatility—not just with policy threats, but with an apparent desire to prove critics of the “T.A.C.O.” (Trump Always Chickens Out) meme wrong. Over the weekend, Trump floated the idea of doubling tariffs on steel. This time, he may not back off.

If this rally falters here, it risks forming a lower high on the chart—a bearish signal that could eventually lead to a retest of the April lows near 4,800 before year-end.

While this isn't financial advice, I’m raising cash if the index closes below its 200-day MA. If support holds in the next couple of weeks, I’ll look to redeploy. Stay nimble—markets remain volatile and the headlines don’t help.

Market Performance

May delivered a strong rebound for the Green Edge Portfolio, which surged over 10% for the month—outpacing the S&P 500’s impressive 6.2% gain. That lifted the S&P into positive territory for the year, now up 0.5% YTD. The rally was powered in large part by the “Mag7,” with Nvidia leading the charge—jumping 24% in May alone.

Despite the strength in large-cap tech, not all parts of the market have caught up. The NASDAQ remains slightly negative for the year, down -1.0%, and small caps continue to lag. The Russell 2000 is still under pressure as elevated interest rates weigh more heavily on smaller, rate-sensitive companies.

Bitcoin also delivered fireworks in May. It notched a new all-time high of $112,000 on May 22 before settling back to $104,600 at month’s end—still a double-digit monthly gain. Institutional demand continues to grow, with more companies (and even a few U.S. states) reportedly adding Bitcoin to their treasuries. With momentum building, we could see new highs again this summer.

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GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

Portfolio Update: NuScale Takes the Lead

Following its 93% surge in May, NuScale (SMR) is now the largest holding in the Green Edge Portfolio. The top two tickers coming into the month—Eos Energy (EOSE) and MP Materials (MP)—both saw declines, down 20% and 10%, respectively. Among the positive standouts, Iris Energy (IREN) jumped 37%, and First Solar (FSLR) gained 25%. Notably, we increased our position in FSLR back in April on the back of strong momentum and the potential for new U.S. solar tariffs—a move that’s paid off so far.

One decision that hasn’t aged well was the sale of Tesla (TSLA). At the time, Elon Musk appeared more focused on battling government inefficiencies (via DOGE memes and Twitter rants) than running the company. Since then, TSLA stock has rallied 22.8% in May alone. If we get a correction, I’m still open to re-entering the position.

The cash position is about 15% of the portfolio, so there is some dry powder should a stock price get into a buy range.

I’ve also updated the Q1 earnings summary table from last month, which now includes a new column showing each stock’s price reaction on the day after its report—offering a quick look at how the market graded each company’s results.

Eos Energy was the big post-earnings winner, rallying 32% after its report. On the flip side, MP Materials, Enovix, and First Solar all fell 8% following their earnings announcements. As always, red text in the table indicates a miss on expectations, while green means the company beat. That said, price reaction isn't always about the headline numbers—guidance and future outlooks often drive post-earnings moves more than just a beat or miss.

Stock Stories (EOSE, SMR, NVTS)

The 32% surge in Eos Energy (EOSE) stock on May 7, 2025, was primarily driven by the company's strong Q1 2025 earnings report and positive market sentiment surrounding its growth prospects. Here are the key factors:

1. Record Q1 Revenue and Reaffirmed 2025 Guidance: Eos reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue of $10.5 million, a 58% year-over-year increase and a 44% rise from the previous quarter. In addition, they reiterated its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $150–190 million, signaling confidence in continued growth.

2. Expanding Commercial Pipeline: Eos highlighted a $15.6 billion commercial pipeline (up 17% year-over-year) and a $681 million order backlog (up 13% year-over-year), driven by partnerships like a 5 GWh MOU in the UK and a 400 MWh order in Puerto Rico. These developments underscored strong demand for Eos’s zinc-based energy storage solutions, particularly in data centers and utilities.

3. Other: Positive Market Sentiment, Technical Breakout, Short Squeeze Potential: Sentiment was amplified by Eos being viewed as a potential “retail heavy cult stock” due to its American-made energy storage solutions, drawing comparisons to other high-momentum stocks. Technical analysis indicated a bullish chart pattern, with EOSE breaking above resistance on a monthly chart, further fueling investor enthusiasm. With over 30% of the float shorted, the strong earnings and positive news may have triggered short covering, adding upward pressure on the stock price.

NuScale Power (SMR) experienced a remarkable 93% surge in its stock price during May 2025, driven by a confluence of favorable developments in regulatory approvals, government policy, and market dynamics. Key factors behind the surge included:

1. Regulatory Milestone: On May 29, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved NuScale's updated design for a 77-megawatt small modular reactor (SMR), enhancing the company's prospects for deploying its technology domestically.

2. Government Support: President Trump's recent executive orders aimed at revitalizing the nuclear energy sector have streamlined reactor approvals and bolstered domestic uranium supply chains, benefiting companies like NuScale.

3. Market Demand: The growing energy needs of AI-driven data centers have increased interest in reliable and scalable power sources, positioning NuScale's SMR technology as a potential solution.

4. Financial Performance: NuScale's Q1 2025 earnings report revealed a significant revenue increase, surpassing analyst expectations and indicating strong operational momentum.

Navitas Soars on NVIDIA Partnership. Shares of Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) skyrocketed 164% in May, with much of the gain occurring after the company announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop a next-generation 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power architecture for AI data centers.

NVIDIA’s proposed shift from traditional 13.8 kV AC grid power to 800V HVDC has the potential to dramatically improve energy efficiency. By minimizing conversion steps and reducing the need for bulky copper busbars, the design could significantly cut both complexity and cost. In fact, the new architecture could reduce copper usage by up to 45% for a 1MW rack compared to conventional 54V systems—a major breakthrough given the rising power demands of AI workloads.

Navitas technology is at the core of this innovation, positioning the company as a key enabler in the next era of high-efficiency, high-density computing infrastructure.

Navitas is on the Green Edge Portfolio watchlist and not currently being held.

Until next time…

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

It’s a very proud dad moment as she expands her ability to help other individuals and families navigating the same path she’s walked her entire life. So, I figured—why not take a moment to brag a little here? Thanks for listening.

Ok, let’s talk energy. On Earth Day, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright made the following statement:

Let’s keep our eyes on the big picture: healthy humans, long opportunity-rich lives, clean air, clean water, and thriving ecosystems. Wealth and a handily energized society are the key to achieving those goals.

I can get behind that. Health, clean air and water, and prosperity all sound great to me. But while the words sound nice, the actions matter more—and the current Administration has been busy “Unleashing American Energy.” So, what have they actually been doing? Here are a couple of examples:

Attacking regulations. I had hoped they’d focus on real bottlenecks—like reducing the long wait times for clean energy projects to connect to the grid. Instead, they rolled back the legal definition of “showerhead” so people can sidestep the 2.5-gallon-per-minute limit. They also halted progress on new appliance efficiency standards, which help consumers save money on energy every day.

Pushing an “All of the Above” energy strategy. Nuclear is getting top billing. I’m not against further nuclear investment—especially as China is going big here—but I remain concerned about long-term costs and feasibility. Meanwhile, DOE and President Trump are leaning into a “Make Coal Great Again” message. That’s hard to take seriously. Coal is now one of the most expensive energy sources and a major threat to clean air.

For further information on the game plan of the DOE, there are nine pillars to their plan which I’ve posted below.

Market Performance

For the first time this year, the Mag7 outperformed the S&P 500, though it remains down year-to-date at -15.4% versus the S&P 500’s -5.3%. The standouts for the month were the Green Edge Clean Energy portfolio, up 8%, and Bitcoin, which surged 14%.

In the first week of April, following the tariff announcements, the market hit its lowest point of the year. The S&P 500 dropped 21% from its February 19 all-time high, and the NASDAQ fell 25%—both officially entering “bear market” territory. However, from the low on April 7 through the close on Friday, May 2, the indexes rebounded sharply, gaining 18% and 22% respectively, with eight consecutive days of gains.

This could easily be a "sell the rip" moment if the tariffs remain in place without meaningful trade agreements to soften the blow. On the other hand, if the administration manages to negotiate 200 trade deals in the next month or so, it could provide the clarity the economy needs—and fuel a rally to new all-time highs. But it’s impossible to know. Since Trump tends to thrive on chaos, I remain cautious.

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

The table shows a lot of green numbers this month, which is always nice to see. Much of the upside came from stocks rebounding after sharp corrections between late January and April 9. For example, EOS Energy recovered 38% after a 50% drop, and CleanSpark gained 21% alongside Bitcoin’s strong performance last month.

The portfolio raised its cash position to 20% by selling all Tesla shares at the beginning of April for $252.81, locking in a 25% gain and waiting for Elon to return full-time to Tesla. The stock dipped as low as $214, so I initially felt good about the timing—but it rallied after earnings, when Elon said he plans to return in the next month or two. Tesla closed April at $282.16. I'm holding off on getting back in for now and will wait to see whether the broader market remains bearish. I wouldn’t mind re-entering under that $214 low.

I also added some shares of First Solar at $138 after the administration proposed tariffs of up to 3,500% on solar panels from five Asian countries. The stock initially rallied on the news but lost momentum after its April 29 earnings report, where it lowered guidance due to uncertainty around the final status of the tariffs—despite being a U.S.-based manufacturer that would theoretically benefit.

It’s Q1 2025 earnings season (for companies on a calendar year), so I’ve included a summary table of expected revenue and earnings per share for portfolio companies. I’ll compare these to the actual results in next month’s update.

Tariff Shockwaves in the U.S. Solar Supply Chain

The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued a landmark trade ruling proposing tariffs as high as 3,521% on solar cell imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam—countries where Chinese manufacturers have been accused of dumping products to circumvent existing trade duties. The final decision now rests with the U.S. International Trade Commission, which will rule by June 2 on whether these imports caused material injury to U.S. manufacturers. If approved, duties would be imposed on June 9.

This marks a potential turning point for American solar manufacturing. The American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, which includes First Solar, Qcells, and others, hails the decision as critical to leveling the playing field. However, the Solar Energy Industries Association warns that tariffs could disrupt solar deployment by restricting access to affordable solar cells, especially given the U.S.'s limited domestic cell production.

In 2024, over 80% of U.S. solar panels came from the four targeted Southeast Asian countries. With some firms already shifting to suppliers in Laos and Indonesia, investors should watch closely: these trade dynamics may reshape supply chains, impact near-term margins, and influence deployment rates—though long-term demand remains robust.

Summary of First Solar's Q1 2025 Earnings Call

Here are four Positives from the earnings call:

1. Strong Backlog: First Solar reported a robust backlog of 66.3 gigawatts, indicating strong demand and securing net bookings of 0.6 gigawatts at a competitive average selling price (ASP) of $0.305 per watt.

2. Manufacturing Capacity Expansion: The company is advancing its domestic manufacturing capabilities, with the Alabama facility on track to begin commercial operations in the second half of 2025, which will increase U.S. nameplate manufacturing capacity to over 14 gigawatts by 2026.

3. Technological Advancements: The introduction of new modules utilizing cure technology shows promising results, with enhanced energy profiles and improved degradation rates, positioning First Solar favorably against competitors.

4. Long-term Market Outlook: Despite near-term challenges, the long-term outlook for solar demand in the U.S. remains strong, bolstered by First Solar's unique position as the only large-scale U.S. PV manufacturer with a fully integrated supply chain.

Negatives include:

1. Earnings Miss: Q1 earnings per diluted share of $1.95 fell below the low end of guidance, primarily due to a higher proportion of international sales, which are subject to new tariffs.

2. Tariff Uncertainty: The recent introduction of tariffs has created significant operational challenges, particularly for international manufacturing in Malaysia and Vietnam, leading to potential reductions in production and sales volumes.

3. Financial Guidance Adjustments: The company updated its financial guidance to reflect the impact of tariffs, with forecasted earnings per diluted share range of $12.50 to $17.50, indicating a reduction in expected profitability due to increased costs and potential volume losses.

4. Working Capital Headwinds: Increased accounts receivable and inventory levels have created liquidity challenges, with a decrease in cash balance and a need for potential third-party capital to manage cash flow effectively.

The Green Edge portfolio will hold tight onto FSLR. If the tariffs are approved by June, we should see a positive move in stock price. If not, I would re-consider this position size.

Until next month,

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

Are tariffs the reason for the current market correction?

The S&P 500 fell 10% and the NASDAQ dropped as much as 15% from their mid-February all-time highs. We are not in earnings season, so the decline isn’t directly tied to lower earnings per share—it’s about sentiment. Valuations are compressing, and price-to-earnings ratios are coming down.

Markets are selling off, but not for the usual reasons. This isn’t about inflation or fundamental deterioration—it’s about uncertainty. With tariffs back in the headlines, businesses and investors are bracing for worst-case scenarios, from retaliatory trade measures to rising input costs. The result? A broad-based risk reduction, particularly in high-growth sectors like semiconductors and SaaS, where valuation sensitivity is heightened by forecasting risk. But here’s the key: unless April 2 brings an actual negative policy surprise, we may have already seen the near-term bottom. The market has priced in the fear before the damage has even occurred, setting the stage for a potential upside reversal once clarity returns.

This earnings season will be crucial. Companies that can simply reaffirm guidance—even modestly—could see multiple expansion as confidence stabilizes. Meanwhile, firms navigating policy uncertainty through vertical integration, supply chain shifts, or AI-driven efficiencies may emerge stronger than expected. The market is in a repricing phase, but as panic selling fades, investors who remained patient through the volatility may find significant opportunities in secular growth names. At the end of the day, markets run on earnings and sentiment—and when those two diverge, opportunity follows.

Therefore, while there may be an opportunity for a rally in the short-term, the economy remains fragile. Tariffs, layoffs, persistent inflation, and ongoing uncertainty could push us back into a downturn reminiscent of the 2022 bear market.

When the Trump administration took over, I tried to remain optimistic—hoping for a business-friendly approach, reduced regulations, and a leader eager to boast about the “best market of all time.” The market rallied 7.5% between the election and the week of his inauguration. However, uncertainty looms, as investors question the administration’s policies and their impact on American companies.

For now, market fundamentals haven’t unraveled—yet. The price action in April could provide us a relief rally. The test will be whether this 10-15% correction turns out to be just that - a correction, or if the rally comes up short of all-time highs and we head further downward as the administration continues with short-lived policy decisions making uncertainty a staple in our investment diets.

At this point, I’m raising a little cash but generally holding on tight, hoping and praying we get clear sense of direction. Note: Hope and prayer isn’t exactly a sound investment strategy, but here we are.

Market Performance

A sea of red. Which index is holding up best? The Equal-Weight S&P 500. The market is rotating out of technology, the Mag 7, and consumer discretionary stocks, shifting instead toward consumer staples, healthcare, and energy. While the S&P 500 fell 5.8%, the Mag 7 took nearly twice the hit, dropping 10.3%. Since the all-time highs on February 19, 2025, the S&P 500 has declined as much as 10.8% (March 31 low), while the NASDAQ has tumbled 15.4%.

From a technical standpoint, the indexes dipped below 30% on the RSI (Relative Strength Index), hitting an oversold level of 28%. They briefly bounced, then set new price lows—but with a higher RSI. This bullish divergence suggests a higher probability of a short-term rally in the coming weeks. That said, it doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods.

We've seen this pattern before. In February 2022, a similar setup appeared in the S&P 500 (see chart below). The blue vertical lines mark January 2 and December 30, encapsulating 2022’s price action. Notice the green arrows: while the price made new lows, the RSI (bottom section) trended higher. The result? A 12.5% rally over the next 23 trading days. However, as history reminds us, the S&P ultimately shed an additional 25% before bottoming in October.

The bottom line: I’d love to take advantage of a rally—but I’ll be quick to get defensive if it doesn’t hold. The next six months are likely to be challenging for investors.

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

The Green Edge portfolio made several adjustments in March, selling three low-market-cap, low-priced stocks as market sentiment continues to punish high-risk tickers. The positions exited were STEM, WWR, and INVZ, a move that increased the portfolio’s cash balance to 11%. For now, I plan to hold this cash and wait for market volatility to subside before redeploying when prices show signs of recovery. If we see a strong rally, I may use that opportunity to increase the cash position to 20–25%, selling into strength. It feels like the current administration may need several months of upheaval before we see potential stabilization.

Future Power Needs in Question

The biggest question in the energy sector right now is: what will AI’s power needs be in the future? If anyone claims to know exactly what AI’s electricity demand will be by 2030, they’re lying.

At first, the consensus was that it would be impossible to build electricity generation fast enough to keep up with the demand from new AI infrastructure and data centers. Then, Deep Seek released insights suggesting AI power consumption could be reduced by an order of magnitude. Shortly after, Jevons’ paradox entered the conversation, reinforcing the argument that AI’s energy demands might still align with earlier projections. The answer to this question looms large for companies in the Green Edge portfolio and other stocks we’re tracking.

Last Friday saw a notable IPO: CoreWeave (CRWV) went public, raising $1.5 billion at $40 per share—however, it was well below its $47–$55 target range—giving it a $20 billion valuation. Nvidia played a behind-the-scenes role, supporting the IPO with a $250 million order for shares (note shares dropped -7% on 3/31 but rallied up +41% on 4/1).

This IPO could be a bellwether for AI infrastructure, raising key questions: Has hyperscaler demand been overstated? Are we heading into overbuild territory? Emerging trends like AI infrastructure expansion, combined with ongoing shifts toward electrification and decarbonization, continue to drive new generation investment announcements. These include advanced orders for clean, firm power sources such as advanced nuclear, geothermal, and new natural gas plants. As we noted in last issue, renewables have contributed 90% of all new capacity additions in the last few years.

Electricity demand surged 4.3% in 2024, fueled by industrial activity, air conditioning, electrification, and data centers, according to the IEA. Similar growth is projected through the decade, but uncertainty remains high. Investors—both in public markets and energy projects—are struggling to factor in all the moving pieces.

Emerging clean firm power developers that rely on hyperscalers as anchor customers may need to adapt. More flexible, distributed energy resources could better align with fluctuating demand patterns. Technologies like geothermal and small modular reactors (SMRs)—once viewed as the backbone of firm, long-term clean power—could face greater challenges if AI infrastructure demand slows or diversifies.

It’s still early days, and the market is waiting for clarity. Two things can be true at once:
a) AI data center demand could be lower than expectations, and
b) In the next decade, demand growth may still drive major adoption of emerging clean technologies like SMRs and next-gen geothermal.

Watching CoreWeave’s price action in the coming months could provide insight into how the market values the AI infrastructure sector and what the future could hold.

Leave a comment

After reading through this edition, I’m confused as to whether the author (me) is bullish or bearish? How about you? Love you hear from you on your views for 2025. Are you buying, selling, or just hanging on tight for dear life.

Feel I spent more time on assessing the general market and how to play it instead of digging in on a clean energy sector or individual company, but that is where my head is at right now. Until next time.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

Who Will Be #2 in the U.S. Electric Vehicle Sector?

Tesla remains the dominant force in the U.S. electric vehicle market, consistently outpacing competitors. With an industry-leading EV lineup—headlined by the best-selling Model Y—Tesla has long benefited from its expansive Supercharger network and innovation in battery technology. However, its once-unshakable lead has eroded over the past few years. TSLA remains a GREEN EDGE portfolio holding, but I wanted to revisit an important question: Who will emerge as the clear #2?

Early in this newsletter’s history (2020-21), I explored this very topic: Would the runner-up position go to a legacy automaker like Ford or GM? Could Chinese EVs (such as BYD or Nio) gain access to the U.S. market? Or would a new startup, possibly one that went public through a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), rise to the occasion?

Why Is Picking a #2 Important Today?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s growing involvement in global politics and side ventures, such as his DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) initiative, has alienated some customers. Even as a Tesla owner for five years, I now find myself considering alternatives. Tesla’s market share has fallen this year from 52% in Q1 2024 to 44% in Q4, creating an opening for competitors to gain ground. The timing is right for another automaker to step up and challenge Tesla’s premier position.

Legacy Automakers: Too Much ICE Brain?

For years, I’ve argued that legacy automakers face too many structural and cultural challenges to truly compete as EV leaders—a mindset I’ve referred to as "ICE brains" (Internal Combustion Engine thinking). While the market needs big automakers to scale EV production lending credibility to the technology, I still believe it’s unlikely any of them will claim the #1 or #2 spot. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if one or more legacy automakers fail in the long run (2040-ish).

Chinese EV Makers: A Non-Starter for the Portfolio

The ongoing economic tensions between China and the U.S. make it unlikely that a Chinese EV manufacturer will play a major role in the U.S. market anytime soon. Personally, I avoid Chinese stocks in all my portfolios due to geopolitical risks, so neither BYD nor Nio are included in the GREEN EDGE portfolio.

The SPAC Boom and Bust

Several EV startups went public via SPACs, with varying degrees of success. Lucid (LCID), backed by Saudi investors, generated significant hype, with its stock soaring to $65 per share at its peak. This was the height of the SPAC investing frenzy. My first SPAC investment, Fisker (FSR), initially showed promise but ultimately went bankrupt and now trades for less than a penny. Polestar (PSNY), another EV startup, sells about 50,000 vehicles annually (one-quarter of that in the U.S.), but despite securing additional financing, it remains far from challenging Tesla. None of these fit our #2 definition.

My Pick for #2: Rivian (RIVN)

Among the remaining contenders, the company I believe has the best shot—and the one I’ve added to the GREEN EDGE clean energy portfolio—is Rivian (RIVN). Rivian has steadily gained market share, growing from less than 1% in Q1 2022 to over 5% in Q1 2024. But its biggest strength isn’t just in retail sales; it’s the commercial van business that could drive long-term growth. This month’s Stock Spotlight Feature takes a deeper dive into Rivian and its potential to become the clear #2 in the EV market.

Q1 market share by automaker for 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Market Performance

Best number on the board was the S&P Equal-Weight at minus -0.8% for the month. Tech companies, AI stocks, and small caps all got taken out to the woodshed in February. Even the largest companies, The Mag 7, were down a huge -8% in February. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has lost -13% since late January.

Risk assets that have done well over the past few months nearly all saw significant corrections. For example, quantum computing darling IONQ was down -37%, nuclear stock OKLO down -38% since 2/12, and TSLA down -27%.

Cryptocurrency, as a risk asset, was also down big last month with Bitcoin leading the downdraft off -17.5%. However, during the March 1-2 weekend, Trump sent out a social media note regarding the U.S. setting up a cryptocurrency reserve and Bitcoin moved from the low of $78k up to $95k, or over +20% during the weekend. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during March.

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GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

February’s monthly performance results for the GREEN EDGE portfolio are summarized in the table above. Notably, MP Materials was the only stock in positive territory, gaining 9.3%, driven by renewed discussions on the importance of rare earth materials. This underscores why I continue to hold Westwater Resources, as the company is developing U.S.-based graphite mining capabilities—a critical component in battery production.

Many portfolio stocks had rallied leading up to February, so a pullback was not unexpected, though the decline was sharper than one would have hoped.

During the month, the portfolio added a position in Innoviz Technologies (INVZ). Innoviz has strengthened its market position in the autonomous vehicle (AV) sector through strategic partnerships, including a collaboration with Mobileye, which has led to new OEM programs. Additionally, its integration with NVIDIA’s platform expands its potential customer base. The company projects 2025 revenue of $50 million, more than double its expected 2024 revenue.

To make room for INVZ, the portfolio trimmed its position in EOSE, taking profits on approximately 10% of the holding. Additionally, exposure to another small-cap stock, STEM, was reduced. The portfolio started the year fully invested with minimal cash, and in hindsight, keeping a 10% cash reserve for opportunities might have been a prudent move. As of the end of February, the portfolio maintains less than 0.1% cash on hand.

Spotlight: Rivian

Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is a U.S.-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer specializing in all-electric trucks and SUVs. The company went public on November 10, 2021, at an IPO price of $78 per share, raising approximately $11.9 billion and achieving an initial valuation of around $77 billion.

As of March 1, 2025, Rivian’s stock trades at $11.84 per share, reflecting the company’s challenges in scaling production and managing supply chain constraints. However, Rivian continues to secure substantial funding, including a $6.6 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy to support the construction of a new EV factory in Georgia, reinforcing its commitment to expanding manufacturing and strengthening its position in the competitive EV market.

One of Rivian’s most significant partnerships has been with Amazon, which agreed in 2019 to purchase 100,000 electric delivery vans as part of a deal that also included a $1 billion investment in the company. By the end of 2024, Rivian had delivered approximately 20,000 of these vans. In late 2024, Rivian announced the end of its exclusivity agreement with Amazon, allowing it to sell its commercial van to other businesses while continuing deliveries to Amazon.

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Why Rivian Is in the GREEN EDGE Portfolio

1. Founder-Led Leadership – CEO RJ Scaringe, an MIT graduate, is widely regarded as a brilliant, hands-on leader who remains laser-focused on Rivian’s long-term vision.

2. Fully Integrated EV Ecosystem – Rivian is the only other EV company besides Tesla that has successfully built a full EV technology stack, including:

   • Cutting-edge software

   • Top-tier manufacturing

   • In-house battery technology, electronics, AI hardware, and self-driving systems

   • A proprietary fast-charging network (similar to Tesla’s Superchargers)

3. Highly Rated Vehicles – Rivian’s R1T truck, R1S SUV, and electric delivery van have all received strong customer reviews and industry praise.

4. Upcoming R2 Vehicle – Slated for a 2026 launch, the R2 is designed to be a high-volume, more affordable vehicle. It is expected to be a compelling alternative to the Model Y and could be the key driver of Rivian’s path to profitability. Notably, Rivian doesn’t need to outsell Tesla—the broader transition from gas-powered cars to EVs is where the real market opportunity lies.

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Risks to Consider

1. Production & Scaling Challenges – Manufacturing and supply chain hurdles could slow Rivian’s growth and delay vehicle deliveries.

2. Financial Losses – Rivian continues to burn significant cash each quarter. If its path to profitability takes too long, it may need to raise additional funds at unfavorable terms, diluting shareholder value.

3. Policy & Market Risks – Changes in U.S. government EV incentives or regulatory policies could impact Rivian’s ability to scale and capture market share.

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Rivian’s Valuation: A Long-Term Opportunity?

With a current market cap of ~$13 billion, Rivian appears undervalued relative to its accomplishments and real-world product adoption. However, investors remain cautious about its cash burn and the risk of running out of capital before achieving profitability.

That said, if Rivian scales successfully and reaches profitability in the next five years, producing 500,000+ vehicles annually, it could reasonably command a valuation of $100–$200 billion—still less than 15% of Tesla’s current valuation.

For more details, check out Rivian’s Q4-2024 earnings report at Savvy Trader.

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We are at the tail end of the Q4-2024 earnings season. Earnings Hub is a great resource for tracking earnings of your favorite companies. I’ve linked the weekly Earnings Calendar on this website for you to check out. They also provide AI summarized earnings calls for most of the public companies.

Here are links to the earnings reports for the companies in the GREEN EDGE clean energy portfolio that reported last month. Click the ticker for the link.

MP (February 20th)

IREN (February 12th)

ENVX (February 19th)

CLSK (February 6th)

FSLR (February 25th)

INVZ (February 26th)

Tesla reported in January and next month the following companies will report: SMR, EOSE, WWR, and STEM.

Until next time!

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

This newsletter began in November of 2020 – more than 50 months ago. The investment thesis that created the foundation of Green Edge: The 2020’s decade would experience a significant transition from fossil fuel-based generation to clean energy. Furthermore, this transition would provide opportunities for investors who understood the transition and strategically acquired the stocks of companies that made the transition successful.

The performance of the clean energy sector was out of this world in 2020 (hence, it seemed like a good idea to start this newsletter) but has significantly underperformed the general market since then. For example, in the table below, the QCLN ETF annual returns as compared to the SPY ETF (representing the S&P 500) from 2020 to YTD 2025.

If one invested $100 in each ETF on 1/1/2020, the QLCN investment would be worth $137.13 today compared to $204.95 for the SPY investment of the same amount. Will the tide turn in the rest of the decade? This is not financial advice, but I think if you pick the right clean energy stocks in the right sectors, one can outperform the market index. In the first six weeks of 2025, the GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio is up 9.14%, or more than double the S&P return thus far.

This edition takes a look at the current dynamic in the electric energy grid, the forecasted growth, where new energy capacity has come from, and which sectors could make good investments for the remainder of the decade (and for 2025). Let’s dig in.

Significant Demand Growth for Electricity in the U.S

The forecasted growth of electric demand is skyrocketing; we’re about to go from "plug and play" to "plug and pray" by 2030 (bad joke brought to you by Grok AI).

The U.S. electricity demand is expected to jump by 15.8% over the next five years. To put that into perspective, since 2000, electricity consumption has only grown at about 0.5% per year. So, we're looking at a leap in demand that is historically unprecedented.

What’s Driving This Surge?

• AI and Data Centers: These aren't just your average server farms anymore; they’re the new energy hogs in town. Data centers are predicted to account for 44% of U.S. electricity load growth by 2028 and could consume up to 9% of the nation’s power by 2030.

• Manufacturing Revival: With strong policy incentives, manufacturing is making a comeback, requiring more power than ever.

• The Great Electrification: From electric vehicles to home heating, there is a shift to electric, pushing demand higher.

Just a couple of years ago, demand forecasts were much lower. We went from expecting a modest 2.6% increase to revising numbers by a factor of five. This surge presents a significant challenge, especially for those of us concerned with climate change. Can we continue to scale up renewable energy or will the industry back track to fossil fuel plants. Or perhaps investment in nuclear energy will pay off (not likely a big impact by 2030). This growth also highlights the need for major grid planning and infrastructure investments.

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How the U.S. Adds Generation Capacity

Over the past decade, renewable energy has dominated new capacity additions in the U.S. In fact, clean energy has made up 80-90% of the new added capacity each year since 2020. Here’s how the landscape has evolved:

The Last 10 Years:

• Solar Power: Solar has led the way in new capacity, sometimes exceeding all other energy sources combined. By 2024, solar accounted for a significant share of new capacity.

• Wind Power: Wind energy has grown dramatically, with U.S. wind capacity tripling since 2010.

• Other Renewables: Hydroelectric, geothermal, and biomass have contributed to the mix, with hydro maintaining a steady, albeit slightly declining, share.

Looking Forward to the Next 5 Years:

• Solar & Wind Dominance Continues: Solar is forecasted to quadruple deployment, potentially meeting over a third of U.S. electricity demand by 2030. Offshore wind will see significant expansion.

• Energy Storage Boom: Battery storage will play a crucial role in balancing intermittent solar and wind generation, with rapid deployment expected.

• Emerging Technologies: Tidal, wave energy, and advanced geothermal could gain traction but remain in early-stage development.

• Natural Gas & Nuclear: While natural gas may see limited growth, the decarbonization push will slow its expansion. Nuclear could see incremental growth through life extensions and new small modular reactors (SMRs).

The shift toward renewables is well underway, but ensuring reliability through storage and infrastructure upgrades will be key. The cost curves of solar and battery storage over the past decade have dramatically improved the cost effectiveness of these sources to the point of being the most cost-effective source of new capacity. Battery prices, for example, have declined ~90% since 2010 (see graphic below). I believe companies working on long-duration battery storage and improving vehicle battery technologies could provide good opportunities for our clean energy portfolio.

Many are looking for nuclear to be the savior. I am for investing in an “all of the above” energy strategy including nuclear but am concerned that nuclear will be slow to get resources online and be more expensive than almost any other resource. The next section takes a closer look.

Nuclear Energy Landscape in the U.S.

Outlook for Nuclear Energy by 2030:

• New Capacity Additions: While the U.S. aims to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, the near-term outlook remains conservative. Ongoing projects like Vogtle Units 3 and 4 will add around 1 to 2 GW by 2030. SMRs may start coming online, but their contribution will be modest.

• Life Extensions & Upgrades: Many nuclear plants are securing license renewals for up to 80 years, maintaining or slightly increasing capacity. Power upgrades could also add incremental capacity.

• Meaningful Load Contribution: Nuclear currently provides about 18-20% of U.S. electricity. While its share may not grow significantly by 2030, maintaining existing plants is essential for grid stability.

Cost Considerations:

• High Construction Costs: The Vogtle expansion will cost around $30 billion for 2.2 GW ($13,636 per kW). SMRs are expected to be less capital-intensive ($4,000-$6,000 per kW), though costs remain speculative.

• Competitive Operating Costs: Nuclear plants have low operating costs, with fuel costs around 0.57 cents per kWh.

• Comparison with Other Energy Sources:

  • Existing nuclear plants have a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $30-$40 per MWh.

  • Solar and wind have LCOEs of $20-$50 per MWh but require additional storage or backup.

  • Natural gas plants operate at $30-$60 per MWh, with higher carbon emissions.

SMRs hold promise for cost reductions, but their large-scale impact will likely be realized post-2030. It is the backing of nuclear by the current administration that makes it likely Green Edge will have exposure to this sector, even if it has had a significant run-up in the past six months.

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Investment Opportunities

The clean energy transition presents compelling investment opportunities across multiple sectors. The Green Edge Clean Energy Portfolio has selected 11 stocks to kick off 2025, focusing on companies in:

1. Solar Energy

2. Battery Technology

3. Electric Vehicles

4. Nuclear Energy

5. Rare Minerals

A key selection criterion is U.S.-based manufacturing. Government policies, including the CHIPS Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), strongly incentivize domestic production. Political support for U.S. manufacturing remains strong, further reinforcing the investment case for companies with domestic supply chains. So, even though solar stocks have underperformed in the past few years, First Solar with its expanding U.S. manufacturing capabilities has earned a spot in our portfolio.

The clean energy shift isn’t just about sustainability—it’s a strategic, economic opportunity. Investors who align with this transition stand to benefit from the structural changes reshaping the energy landscape.

Thanks for reading through our updated look at the original investment thesis. I will continue by keeping a pulse on the clean energy transition, evaluating investment opportunities in these sectors, and tweaking our portfolio to earn the best returns. Follow this newsletter, @DTfromGB on X, and the GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio on Savvy Trader to keep up to date.

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.

The start of a new year is always a great time for change and improvement. This year, I want to focus more on the specific companies in the GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio and the investment themes behind each pick.

To make room for deeper analysis, I’ve streamlined the monthly results tables into a single, more concise version. This will allow me to highlight at least one portfolio company each month while continuing to provide market commentary with insights you won’t find in other investment resources. My goal is to deliver something unique and valuable. Let’s dive in!

The January Effect

Is it really only February 3rd? January felt like half a year packed into one month. We’ve already seen:

• Attacks on DEI practices

• A wave of presidential pardons (both Biden’s preemptive ones and those for January 6th rioters)

• The TikTok ban and subsequent reversal

• The swearing-in of the 47th U.S. president

• 26 Executive Orders

• China-based DeepSeek unveiling a new AI model

• The first major U.S. plane crash in 25 years, claiming 67 lives

• And, as markets closed on January 31st, Trump’s surprise 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, plus an additional 10% on China

The market reacted swiftly. Last Monday, the tech-heavy NASDAQ opened down more than -3.5% after DeepSeek’s AI announcement. Today (Monday, 2/3), the NASDAQ dropped as much as -2.7% following Trump’s tariff announcement. If this kind of volatility continues, investors may be hesitant to hold stocks over the weekend.

Market Performance

As of January’s close, the S&P 500 finished the month up +2.7%, gaining +5.6% compared to its pre-election closing price on November 5th. The equal-weight index outperformed by +0.7%, while the NASDAQ lagged by nearly -1%, largely due to the DeepSeek AI news (more on that later). Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged nearly +10%.

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio

With a fresh perspective for 2025, I’ve selected 11 stocks to kick off the investment season. Of these, five originally went public via SPACs—a fact I may not need to mention anymore, given it’s been four years since their public debuts. However, since this newsletter was founded on tracking clean energy SPACs, I feel obligated to acknowledge it. (Perhaps my 2025 resolution should be to retire the word SPAC from my vocabulary.)

The key investment themes behind this year’s picks include:

• Batteries – EOSE, ENVX

• Electric vehicles & more – TSLA, RIVN

• North American mining & rare earths – MP, WWR

• Domestic solar manufacturing – FSLR

• Bitcoin mining & AI data center infrastructure – IREN, CLSK

• Nuclear – SMR

• AI-powered grid solutions – STEM

Policy Shifts & Clean Energy Outlook

One of President Trump’s first actions in his second (non-consecutive) term was signing 26 executive orders, including one titled "Unleashing American Energy." His energy policy, long characterized by the mantra “Drill, baby, drill,” is now taking shape with:

• A pause on IRA and infrastructure law funding, under a section called “Terminating the Green New Deal”

• Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement—again

While these moves may seem like headwinds for clean energy, I don’t think all is lost for our portfolio. Here’s why:

Why Clean Energy Still Has a Strong Case

✅ Low-Cost Energy Wins – Utility-scale solar + battery storage remains one of the most cost-effective sources of new grid power. Economics, not politics, will continue to drive adoption.

✅ Made in America – Solar, battery, and critical mineral production are ramping up in the U.S.—ironically, much of it in Republican-led states. Mining and processing operations are also shifting stateside, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.

✅ Elon’s Influence – Love him or hate him, Elon Musk has the ear of the President and plays the long game. He recently posted on X that he believes solar will eventually power 99% of U.S. energy. If that’s his vision, expect policies to support EVs and renewable energy—especially if they align with Tesla’s interests.

Problem Eos Energy is Addressing

Eos Energy is tackling the challenge of energy storage for renewable energy sources. Traditional batteries, like lithium-ion, are not always ideal for long-duration storage due to safety concerns, environmental impact, and cost. The need for stable, sustainable, and scalable energy storage solutions is critical as the world moves towards more reliance on intermittent renewable energy like solar and wind.

Solutions:

1. Innovative Technology and Market Position: Eos Energy specializes in zinc-based energy storage systems, which offer a safe, scalable, and sustainable alternative to lithium-ion batteries, particularly for long-duration storage needs. This technology addresses critical issues like safety (non-flammable zinc batteries), environmental impact (more sustainable materials), and grid stability. Their flagship product, the Znyth™ battery, is designed for utility, industrial, and commercial applications, positioning Eos as a potential leader in the growing long-duration energy storage market.

2. Significant Strategic Investments and Partnerships: Eos has secured substantial financial backing, notably a strategic investment of up to $315.5 million from Cerberus Capital Management, which not only bolsters their financial stability but also supports their expansion and path to profitability. This partnership with Cerberus, combined with investments from other entities like Clear Creek Investments and Ardsley Advisory Partners, validates the company's business model and growth potential. Additionally, their collaboration with Pine Gate Renewables for a 500 MWh supply agreement over five years indicates strong market demand and confidence in their technology.

3. Government and Market Support: The company benefits from a supportive regulatory environment, particularly with incentives like those provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes tax credits for domestic manufacturing. Eos's focus on U.S.-manufactured batteries aligns with national security interests and the push for energy independence, further evidenced by the Department of Defense's interest in non-Chinese battery technologies. This regulatory and market support could significantly enhance Eos's competitive edge and profitability in the sector.

By addressing these aspects, Eos not only solves critical issues in the energy sector but also sets itself up for potential growth in stock value, rewarding investors through increased demand, market expansion, and favorable policy environments.

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DeepSeek AI

Before saying goodbye on the first edition of the 2025 newsletter, I wanted to figure out if Deep Seek AI revelations would affect the energy necessary to run AI applications and data centers. The projected growth of AI has spurred investment into battery storage, nuclear, and other infrastructure plays. When Deep Seek insight became public last week, nuclear stocks got nuked → down 20-30% overnight.

But then I learned about Jevons’ Paradox and that this cost-effective use of AI could actually increase the need for AI due to being more cost-effective for many, many more applications. I had AI help me with understanding this paradox and share the output below.

Jevons’ Paradox and AI Compute Boom

What do coal and AI computing power have in common? More than you might think.

In the 19th century, advances in steam engine efficiency made coal use more productive. But instead of reducing coal consumption, demand skyrocketed—fueling the Industrial Revolution. This counterintuitive effect is known as Jevons' paradox: making a resource more efficient often increases, rather than decreases, its overall use.

Fast forward to today, and we’re witnessing a modern version of this phenomenon with AI and compute power. As AI models become more efficient and cheaper to run, demand for computing power isn’t shrinking—it’s soaring. AI adoption is scaling at an unprecedented pace, driving massive investment in data centers, energy infrastructure, and land.

The paradox is clear: greater efficiency leads to broader adoption, which in turn requires even more resources. AI’s rapid growth isn’t just about developing smarter models—it’s about having the infrastructure to support them. And that’s where the next major competitive advantage lies.

The New Scarce Resource: Compute Infrastructure

In the industrial age, owning coal mines meant controlling the energy that powered factories. Today, the equivalent is owning data centers, securing energy access, and managing land for AI infrastructure. Compute power is becoming the new scarce resource, with reliable access to energy—especially clean energy—emerging as a key constraint.

For investors, this shift presents a unique opportunity. Companies that build and control sustainable AI infrastructure will be the ones driving the next wave of technological progress. Just as industrial barons shaped the past, the leaders of tomorrow will be those who ensure AI has the power to keep running—efficiently and sustainably.

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2025 is shaping up to be an incredible year—full of winners, some losers, and plenty of volatility. I’m excited to move forward with our new GREEN EDGE Clean Energy Portfolio, digging deeper into the companies, adapting as the data guides us, and making changes when necessary.

With fewer tables and more company insights, I hope these editions provide even greater value and help expand our reach. Plus, keep an eye out for mid-month editions covering key sectors we’re exploring and investing in.

Until next time!

Efficiently Yours,

D.T.