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NOAA Updates their Mid-Month Outlook for September - September 1, 2026

Sigmund Silber — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:11:16 GMT

As usual, we begin with current warnings.

Here is another similar warning (SOURCE) covering slightly different days.

Now to the main topic of this article, which we have partially addressed by the above warnings.

Part I: The Updated and Earlier Mid-month Outlook for September

On August 31, 2026, which is the end of the month, the NOAA CPC Division routinely issued its updated outlook for the following month.

The second map is the earlier mid-month Outlook for September, issued on August 20, 2026, 11 days earlier. There were some major changes. In this article, we will address them to some extent.

NOAA Discussion

Here is the discussion released by NOAA. I highlight things that I believe are important, and any comments I make are in brackets. Titles that are not in all caps were added by the author for clarity.

Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP 2026
The updated September temperature and precipitation outlook is primarily informed by model guidance across time scales including short- and medium-range (next 7 days), extended-range and subseasonal-range forecasts. Near coast sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface wetness anomalies adjust the outlook in some areas.
Temperature
There are considerable changes in the updated temperature outlook from the mid month outlook. Troughing is forecast to impact much of the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) early in the month and so cooler conditions are now expected in these areas. The area of favored above-normal temperatures is shifted eastward to encompass the central U.S., Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic in the outlook update. There is now a slight tilt for below-normal monthly mean temperatures for a small region in the Pacific Northwest and Equal-Chances (EC) is now forecast in remaining areas as cooler than normal conditions to start the month may be offset during the second half of the month.
Elevated odds for above-normal temperatures remain for the southern tier of the U.S. and Southeast Alaska. The highest likelihood for above-normal temperatures is forecast for the central Great Plains where the GEFS and ECMWF model guidance predict strong ridging during much of the first ten days of September as well as substantially below-normal surface wetness conditions.
Precipitation
Potential troughing in the Northeast along with favored above-normal precipitation increases uncertainty and so Equal-Chances (EC) for above-, near- or below-normal temperatures are forecast in this area. For Alaska, troughing forecast in proximity to the state supports elevated odds for below-normal temperatures for parts of western and northern Alaska.
There are also substantial modifications in the updated precipitation outlook from the earlier release in mid-August. Above-normal monthly total precipitation amounts remain favored for California and much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and Southwest. For the Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies, however, above-normal precipitation is now favored due to troughing over approximately the first ten days of the month. The greatest odds are forecast for areas in Oregon where significant precipitation is forecast over the next 7 days and where the monthly precipitation climatology is lower than nearby areas.
In the short-term, tropical moisture elevates odds for above-normal precipitation for the southern half of the Florida Peninsula and heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 increases the likelihood for parts of southeast Texas.
Enhanced precipitation on the northern periphery of subtropical ridging highlighted in the mid-month outlook is shifted northeastward in the updated outlook. Model guidance is consistent in predicting ridging to be more amplified in the central CONUS and so elevated odds for above-normal precipitation is now focused for the eastern Great Lakes and much of the Northeast. Forecast ridging in the central U.S. for much of the first ten days of September limits precipitation potential and tilts the odds to below-normal precipitation for areas in the central Plains and central Mississippi Valley.
Model guidance across multiple time scales supports the weak tilt for below-normal precipitation for a small area along the central Atlantic coastline. There are only slight changes from the mid-August outlook for the state of Alaska.

Part II: Our Analysis and Assessment of the Validity of this Outlook.

I am skipping that tonight, as it will not be much different from what I published on Saturday, and there is not an updated Week 3-4 Outlook that I can access as it only updates for the public on Fridays. I will provide the partial-month weather outlooks in my weekend article.

Part III: Drought

New Month Drought Outlook (LINK )

Notice the impact of the Monsoon, which is reducing but for the most part not totally removing drought in the Southwest and states to the north of the Southwest. There is little improvement in New Mexico for September.

There is a long and a short discussion available. Here is the short discussion.

Latest Monthly Assessment - - During August, periods of storminess continued to improve drought conditions (1 to 3 class improvement) across the Tennessee Valley, and much of the East, though dryness returned to Maine. In contrast, below-average precipitation and periods of much above normal temperatures sparked (1 to 3 class) drought worsening and expansion across the upper Midwest, portions of the northern High Plains, Central and Southern Plains. Across the West, although drought improvements or degradations were noted across parts of the region, major drought covered areas were nearly unchanged. Strong El Ni o conditions continue to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific, which will increasingly impact the long term patterns across the US. Across the East, favorable wet signals during the period are anticipated to continue drought reduction across much of the region. Across the upper Midwest and much of the Great Plains, persistence is expected due to lack of wet signals, with drought expansion likely in parts of those anomalously drier areas. Across the West, seasonably dry conditions will provide little opportunity for drought reduction across much of Nevada, Idaho, Montana, and eastern portions of Oregon and Washington. The exception is the coastal region of the Pacific Northwest where 1 class improvement is likely. Further inland, an anticipated continuation of enhanced monsoonal rainfall favors drought reductions/improvements across parts of the Great Basin, Four Corners states and Central Rockies.
Recent moderate drought conditions in east-central Alaska are projected to improve, whereas a small drought area in southeastern Alaska is expected to continue. Drought is neither present nor forecast for the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, drought conditions are expected to actively expand across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to a persistently suppressed convective regime driven in part by strong El Ni o conditions.

Seasonal Drought Outlook (LINK). It was adjusted to reflect the September updates.

The yellow is where drought development is likely, the green is where drought removal is likely, and the light green/tan is where drought remains but improves. The latter seems to be the predominant pattern rather than total drought removal. It is a challenge to forecast the exact way the El Niño will impact weather in the CONUS in October and November.

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31 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Pressure Builds on Wall Street

Gary Hall — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 20:09:42 GMT

Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Stocks fell sharply today after military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude back above $90 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield was also hanging around 4.75% after Jackson Hole. That combination was enough to bury the good earnings news. Exxon and Chevron were among the few stocks moving higher, riding the jump in crude while most of the market headed lower. The major indexes eventually found their lows and spent much of the afternoon moving sideways. The Nasdaq made a late run toward the unchanged line but came up short, closing in the red with the rest of the major indexes.

Edison and PG&E got clobbered after California lawmakers wrapped up without giving the utilities the wildfire liability protections they had been pushing for. So the same worries about future claims were suddenly front and center again. With everything else already weighing on the market, nobody seemed interested in taking chances on them.

Aon fell after announcing its $17 billion deal to buy USI Insurance from KKR. Tesla moved higher after news that Optimus production has started. CrowdStrike, GameStop and SAIC also finished in the green after some encouraging company news.

Market Heatmap: The Isolated Green vs. The Macro Red

Financial Markets August 2026 Gains

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey increased 6 points to 16.1 in August 2026. As I have said many times - I have yet to see hard data which confirms a manufacturing growth surge.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 41% from 207 in June to 123 in July 2026. This is down 17% from the 149 CEO exits that occurred in the same month one year prior. Andy Challenger, workplace and labor expert, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, stated: CEO turnover continues to climb in 2025, reflecting the immense pressures leaders face in navigating economic uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting organizational priorities. We’re seeing companies recalibrate leadership faster than ever, with boards demanding adaptability and fresh perspective at the very top

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Weather Outlook for the United States and the World

This article highlights what we are monitoring over the next 48 to 72 hours. It also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. forecasts (up to four weeks) and three- and six-day global weather outlooks, which can be very useful for travelers and understanding world news events. Additionally, we provide ongoing coverage of global tropical activities and special coverage of such events and other significant weather situations that affect or are likely to affect the United States.

Disclaimer

Nothing in this EconCurrents newsletter is financial, investment, legal, or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product.

September 2026 Economic Forecast: Overall Main Street Economy Doing Well, But For Many Not So Much

Steven Hansen — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 11:01:57 GMT

EconCurrents‘ Economic Index was little changed this month. Inflation remains the burr in the economic saddle. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Saturday Newsletter: Weather Forecast Update Plus Some Interesting Reports.

Sigmund Silber — Sat, 29 Aug 2026 10:50:32 GMT

As usual, we begin with recent weather updates.

The extreme heat risk continues but seems to be moderating.

Current Weather Update

Here is the current weather hazards warning. (SOURCE)

Pretty similar to the warning at the beginning of the article.

Let us look at precipitation.

Here is the current forecast for five days of precipitation.

Two to three areas where precipitation is likely. The Monsoon is still mostly over Arizona, but it extends to the north.

Below are the links to update and expand the information and have it presented as an animation.

Days 1 - 7 LINK, Day 1 - 7 Precipitation Animation (Click), Day 3 - 7 Minimum Temperature Animation (Click), Day 3- 7 Maximum Temperature (LINK)

Rest of the month

Days 6 - 10 (LINK)

West-to-east pattern rather than a typical El Niño pattern.

Early skiing perhaps in Washington and Oregon in the mountains.

Days 8 - 14 (LINK)

Somewhat similar to the prior week.

Transitioning.

Weeks 3 - 4 (LINK)

Quite a change.

The Monsoon?

Tropical Forecast

The Tropical Forecast can impact the Outlook in ways not always fully reflected in the NOAA discussion. This graphic only shows the Week 2 and 3 Outlooks. The link to update this forecast is provided, but the forecast only updates on Tuesdays. To update this forecast (which updates on Tuesdays), click HERE

I do not see anything of great interest for CONUS other than the predicted Southern Tier heat. Central America and Brazil have a big problem. Indonesia and India will be dry also.

Moisture in the Atmosphere

I thought it would be useful to take a look at the situation with Atmospheric Rivers.

8/28 (LINK to advance in time)

8/15 Here is what we saw last week. This week, an atmospheric river that was some distance away has made it to Alaska and Canada and may soon impact the U.S. Northwest.

Some Drought Reports

Northeast

Midwest (LINK) Strategic Plan

Southeast

(LINK) To the Webinar.

California - Nevada (LINK)

Copernicus Report

Bonn, 24 August 2026

For immediate release
Copernicus: Daily global sea surface temperature breaks 2024 record
Rising global sea surface temperatures highlights ocean under unprecedented strain
Daily sea surface temperature (°C) averaged over the extra–polar global ocean (60°S–60°N) for 2024 (yellow), 2025 (orange) and 2026 (red). All other years between 1979 and 2023 are shown with grey lines. The daily average for the 1991–2020 reference period is shown with a dashed grey line. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
The daily global average sea surface temperature (SST) has reached its highest level on record, exceeding the previous record set in March 2024. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed the record, with a temperature of 21.1°C on 22 August, exceeding the previous record of 21.09°C. The C3S ERA5 dataset extends back to 1979.
While daily records should always be interpreted within a broader climate context, this milestone is consistent with the continued long-term warming of the global ocean and the emergence of an extreme El Niño event in the tropical Pacific.
The timing of the record is particularly notable. Global ocean temperatures are typically highest in March and April, following the austral summer, yet this record has been reached in August. It also exceeds the previous highest August value, recorded in 2023 at 20.98°C. This latest daily record follows a succession of monthly sea surface temperature records and near-records observed throughout 2026 across the extra-polar ocean (60°S to 60°N), underscoring the persistent warmth seen across much of the global ocean.
A strong El Niño is now developing in the tropical Pacific, adding further warmth to an ocean that has already been warming over many decades as a result of human-driven climate change. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is expected to strengthen during the coming months, while the C3S seasonal forecasting system suggests the event could reach levels not seen for several decades.
Anomalies in sea surface temperature for 22 August 2026. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, commented: “This record is another clear signal of an ocean under growing stress. El Niño is adding heat to the system, but it is doing so on top of decades of human-driven warming. As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the risks to marine ecosystems and coastal communities also increase. The consequences are already visible: the number of marine heatwave days globally has more than tripled since the early 1990s, putting increasing pressure on marine ecosystems and the communities that depend on them”.
The long-term rise in ocean temperatures has far reaching consequences for both communities and ecosystems. A warmer ocean contributes to sea-level rise through thermal expansion, increasing risks for coastal communities and low-lying island nations. Higher temperatures also increase the likelihood and intensity of marine heatwaves, which can damage key ecosystems, such as coral reefs and seagrass meadows, which in turn disrupt marine food webs and industries such as fisheries and aquaculture.
Higher ocean temperatures also enhance the potential for extreme weather events. A warmer ocean transfers more heat and moisture to the atmosphere, potentially intensifying rainfall and some storm systems. In addition, a warmer ocean becomes less efficient at absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, potentially weakening one of the planet’s most important natural buffers against climate change.
ECMWF scientists working for C3S continue to monitor the situation to determine whether the exceedance in daily SST is temporary or persistent. These record values are recorded by the C3S ERA5 reanalysis, produced by ECMWF. Daily updates to ERA5’s SST records can be monitored via the Climate Pulse online application.
1) Although SST data is available for the full ERA5 dataset (1940 to present), only data from January 1979 onward is used for Climate Pulse: this is the period for which the data is more reliable due to the availability of satellite observations.
- End –
NB: Due to time sensitivities, this press release is being distributed only in English.
Useful Resources:
Previous monthly bulletins can be found here.
Follow near-real-time data for the globe on Climate Pulse here.
Information about the C3S datasets and how they are compiled:
The findings about global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) presented here are based on SST data from ERA5 averaged over the 60°S–60°N domain. Note that ERA5 SSTs are estimates of the ocean temperature at about 10m depth (known as foundation temperature). The results may differ from other SST products providing temperature estimates at different depths.
ERA5’s SST can be monitored with the Climate Pulse application and downloaded from the C3S Climate Data Store. C3S publishes monthly climate bulletins monitoring temperatures, hydrological variables and sea ice, and more extensive analysis and reports throughout the year such as the European State of the Climate and the Global Climate Highlights.
Information on national records and impacts:
Information on national records and impacts is based on national and regional reports. For details see the respective temperature and hydrological C3S climate bulletin for the month.
C3S has followed the recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to use the most recent 30-year period for calculating climatological averages and changed to the reference period of 1991-2020 for its C3S Climate Bulletins covering January 2021 onward.
More information on the reference period used can be found here.
About Copernicus and ECMWF
Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, looking at our planet and its environment to benefit all European citizens. The programme is coordinated and managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the Member States and European organisations.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our Member and Co-operating States and the broader community. It operates a world-class supercomputer facility for weather forecasting and holds one of the largest meteorological data archives.
ECMWF is a key player in Copernicus, the Earth Observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, by implementing quality-assured information on climate change (Copernicus Climate Change Service), atmospheric composition (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service), and contributing to information on flooding and fire danger (Copernicus Emergency Management Service). Together with ESA and EUMETSAT, ECMWF also delivers the EU’s Destination Earth initiative, which is developing prototype digital twins of the Earth.
More information on Copernicus: www.copernicus.eu
The ECMWF website can be found at
https://www.ecmwf.int/

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Understanding Chicago’s Multifamily Housing Stock: Perspectives from Property Owners in Rogers Park

Earlier this year the Chicago Fed convened a roundtable discussion with about 20 owners of multifamily properties in Chicago’s North Side neighborhood of Rogers Park. Many of these roundtable participants also completed an optional survey that asked about their operations, costs, and future plans. In this article, we summarize high-level insights from the roundtable discussion and the survey results. We also examine multifamily rental housing stock data and trends in Chicago and Rogers Park.

An Auditable AI Agent Loop for Empirical Economics: A Case Study in Forecast Combination

AI coding agents, general-purpose assistants that write and execute code, make empirical specification search fast and cheap, but they also widen hidden researcher degrees of freedom. This paper adapts an open-source agent-loop architecture to an empirical economics workflow and adds a post-search holdout evaluation. In a forecast-combination illustration, independent agent searches find methods that improve on benchmarks from the original study. Logged search and holdout evaluation together make adaptive specification search more transparent and help distinguish robust improvements from sample-specific discoveries.

Strategies to Address Healthcare Worker Shortages

An analysis examines how job openings at U.S. hospitals for registered nurses and respiratory therapists, two “opportunity occupations,” trended in 2024.

Stablecoins Meet the Mundell–Fleming Trilemma

The Mundell–Fleming trilemma states that a country cannot simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital mobility, and independent monetary policy. Its core assumption is that the degree of capital mobility is largely determined by policy or by the structure of international financial markets. The authors construct a novel dataset and a small-open-economy New Keynesian model to explore the following question: with the emergence of blockchain-based payment infrastructure and stablecoins, does this assumption remain valid?

The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-Through into Consumer Prices

The authors estimate how the 2025 U.S. tariffs pass through to consumer prices, separating the direct effect on imports from the indirect effects on domestically produced goods. The direct effect passes through quickly, since tariffs raise import prices almost immediately, while the indirect effects take nine to twelve months to work through supply chains. As a result, tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest.

Replay: Food Insecurity and Consumer Pessimism

A May post identified a sharp rise in food insecurity among respondents to a series of targeted questions in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. The analysis also explored how food insecurity may be contributing to increasing pessimism about the economy.

Comparing U.S. and St. Louis Foreign-Born Population Changes

The foreign-born population shares of the U.S. and St. Louis metro area have grown over time, and those populations’ top origin countries have shifted.

Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data

Standard macroeconomic data do not cleanly separate the systematic and nonsystematic components of monetary policy. We show that incorporating unstructured text data into the structural estimation of a DSGE model can sharpen this distinction. We augment a standard state-space model with a noncore measurement block that links structural shocks to time series derived from Federal Open Market Committee transcripts, using a spike-and-slab prior to let the data select which series are informative. In a medium-scale New Keynesian model for the United States, incorporating text improves predictive performance and materially alters structural inference: The new model estimates a lower response of the policy rate to inflation, higher price stickiness, and lower price indexation, implying a flatter and less backward-looking price Phillips curve.

Industrial Policy and Capital Misallocation in Exporting

The authors of this working paper examine trade financing through export credit agencies, a key tool of modern industrial policy. They find that even in advanced economies with developed financial markets, industrial policy that lowers financing constraints for exporters can raise output, improve capital allocation, and generate welfare gains.

What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?

The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in part a more-educated and older workforce—that is, a shift in composition towards demographic groups with traditionally lower unemployment rates. It also reflects newer cohorts entering the labor force with lower unemployment rates. Projections suggest that future demographic changes will gradually lower trend unemployment about 0.4 percentage point further over the next 20 years.

Disclaimer

Weather Forecast Update Plus Some Interesting Reports.

Sigmund Silber — Sat, 29 Aug 2026 10:48:10 GMT

As usual, we begin with recent weather updates.

The extreme heat risk continues but seems to be moderating.

Current Weather Update

Here is the current weather hazards warning. (SOURCE)

Pretty similar to the warning at the beginning of the article.

Let us look at precipitation.

Here is the current forecast for five days of precipitation.

Two to three areas where precipitation is likely. The Monsoon is still mostly over Arizona, but it extends to the north.

Below are the links to update and expand the information and have it presented as an animation.

Days 1 - 7 LINK, Day 1 - 7 Precipitation Animation (Click), Day 3 - 7 Minimum Temperature Animation (Click), Day 3- 7 Maximum Temperature (LINK)

Rest of the month

Days 6 - 10 (LINK)

West-to-east pattern rather than a typical El Niño pattern.

Early skiing perhaps in Washington and Oregon in the mountains.

Days 8 - 14 (LINK)

Somewhat similar to the prior week.

Transitioning.

Weeks 3 - 4 (LINK)

Quite a change.

The Monsoon?

Tropical Forecast

I do not see anything of great interest for CONUS other than the predicted Southern Tier heat. Central America and Brazil have a big problem. Indonesia and India will be dry also.

Moisture in the Atmosphere

I thought it would be useful to take a look at the situation with Atmospheric Rivers.

8/28 (LINK to advance in time)

8/15 Here is what we saw last week. This week, an atmospheric river that was some distance away has made it to Alaska and Canada and may soon impact the U.S. Northwest.

Some Drought Reports

Northeast

Midwest (LINK) Strategic Plan

Southeast

(LINK) To the Webinar.

California - Nevada (LINK)

Copernicus Report

Bonn, 24 August 2026

For immediate release
Copernicus: Daily global sea surface temperature breaks 2024 record
Rising global sea surface temperatures highlights ocean under unprecedented strain
Daily sea surface temperature (°C) averaged over the extra–polar global ocean (60°S–60°N) for 2024 (yellow), 2025 (orange) and 2026 (red). All other years between 1979 and 2023 are shown with grey lines. The daily average for the 1991–2020 reference period is shown with a dashed grey line. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
The daily global average sea surface temperature (SST) has reached its highest level on record, exceeding the previous record set in March 2024. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed the record, with a temperature of 21.1°C on 22 August, exceeding the previous record of 21.09°C. The C3S ERA5 dataset extends back to 1979.
While daily records should always be interpreted within a broader climate context, this milestone is consistent with the continued long-term warming of the global ocean and the emergence of an extreme El Niño event in the tropical Pacific.
The timing of the record is particularly notable. Global ocean temperatures are typically highest in March and April, following the austral summer, yet this record has been reached in August. It also exceeds the previous highest August value, recorded in 2023 at 20.98°C. This latest daily record follows a succession of monthly sea surface temperature records and near-records observed throughout 2026 across the extra-polar ocean (60°S to 60°N), underscoring the persistent warmth seen across much of the global ocean.
A strong El Niño is now developing in the tropical Pacific, adding further warmth to an ocean that has already been warming over many decades as a result of human-driven climate change. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is expected to strengthen during the coming months, while the C3S seasonal forecasting system suggests the event could reach levels not seen for several decades.
Anomalies in sea surface temperature for 22 August 2026. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, commented: “This record is another clear signal of an ocean under growing stress. El Niño is adding heat to the system, but it is doing so on top of decades of human-driven warming. As ocean temperatures continue to rise, the risks to marine ecosystems and coastal communities also increase. The consequences are already visible: the number of marine heatwave days globally has more than tripled since the early 1990s, putting increasing pressure on marine ecosystems and the communities that depend on them”.
The long-term rise in ocean temperatures has far reaching consequences for both communities and ecosystems. A warmer ocean contributes to sea-level rise through thermal expansion, increasing risks for coastal communities and low-lying island nations. Higher temperatures also increase the likelihood and intensity of marine heatwaves, which can damage key ecosystems, such as coral reefs and seagrass meadows, which in turn disrupt marine food webs and industries such as fisheries and aquaculture.
Higher ocean temperatures also enhance the potential for extreme weather events. A warmer ocean transfers more heat and moisture to the atmosphere, potentially intensifying rainfall and some storm systems. In addition, a warmer ocean becomes less efficient at absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, potentially weakening one of the planet’s most important natural buffers against climate change.
ECMWF scientists working for C3S continue to monitor the situation to determine whether the exceedance in daily SST is temporary or persistent. These record values are recorded by the C3S ERA5 reanalysis, produced by ECMWF. Daily updates to ERA5’s SST records can be monitored via the Climate Pulse online application.
1) Although SST data is available for the full ERA5 dataset (1940 to present), only data from January 1979 onward is used for Climate Pulse: this is the period for which the data is more reliable due to the availability of satellite observations.
- End –
NB: Due to time sensitivities, this press release is being distributed only in English.
Useful Resources:
Previous monthly bulletins can be found here.
Follow near-real-time data for the globe on Climate Pulse here.
Information about the C3S datasets and how they are compiled:
The findings about global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) presented here are based on SST data from ERA5 averaged over the 60°S–60°N domain. Note that ERA5 SSTs are estimates of the ocean temperature at about 10m depth (known as foundation temperature). The results may differ from other SST products providing temperature estimates at different depths.
ERA5’s SST can be monitored with the Climate Pulse application and downloaded from the C3S Climate Data Store. C3S publishes monthly climate bulletins monitoring temperatures, hydrological variables and sea ice, and more extensive analysis and reports throughout the year such as the European State of the Climate and the Global Climate Highlights.
Information on national records and impacts:
Information on national records and impacts is based on national and regional reports. For details see the respective temperature and hydrological C3S climate bulletin for the month.
C3S has followed the recommendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to use the most recent 30-year period for calculating climatological averages and changed to the reference period of 1991-2020 for its C3S Climate Bulletins covering January 2021 onward.
More information on the reference period used can be found here.
About Copernicus and ECMWF
Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, looking at our planet and its environment to benefit all European citizens. The programme is coordinated and managed by the European Commission and implemented in partnership with the Member States and European organisations.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our Member and Co-operating States and the broader community. It operates a world-class supercomputer facility for weather forecasting and holds one of the largest meteorological data archives.
ECMWF is a key player in Copernicus, the Earth Observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, by implementing quality-assured information on climate change (Copernicus Climate Change Service), atmospheric composition (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service), and contributing to information on flooding and fire danger (Copernicus Emergency Management Service). Together with ESA and EUMETSAT, ECMWF also delivers the EU’s Destination Earth initiative, which is developing prototype digital twins of the Earth.
More information on Copernicus: www.copernicus.eu
The ECMWF website can be found at
https://www.ecmwf.int/

I hope you found this article interesting and useful

Leave a comment

28 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Specter of Jackson Hole Hung Over the Markets

Gary Hall — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 20:03:23 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

Baker Hughes rig count for the USA is unchanged this week at 588.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Today it was the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium which drove the markets. This year’s symposium theme was Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.

The financial markets and the 10-year Treasury yields rose today following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address. But after midday, the markets moderated after digesting the implications of the speech. Traders re-priced the probability of an interest rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, pushing the odds from 35% to 58%. Further, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.35%, raising borrowing costs and tempering equity enthusiasm.

Warsh reaffirmed that the Fed’s inflation target of 2% (measured via PCE) is a firm target. He stated: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. Warsh also announced the formation of a Fed task forces to study AI’s long-term impacts on productivity, labor shifts, token pricing models, and neutral interest rates.

Marvell Technology declined today while PayPal fell after rejecting a $50 billion bid to take PayPal private. Major stock movements influencing the markets today:

Here is how the markets performed this week:

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Each year, the BLS employment estimates are benchmarked primarily to state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records. The preliminary revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000. The preliminary benchmark revision for total private employment was -178,000 . The final benchmark revision will be incorporated into the January 2027 Employment Situation news release. Prior to the benchmark, Total Nonfarm 12-month job gains were tracked at approximately 1,850,000 to 1,870,000 so this benchmark is relatively minor.

Interesting that the Chicago Business Barometer dropped 10.5 points to 47.1 in August 2026. This survey was below the neutral 50 level for the first time since April. This is the first manufacturing survey which shows manufacturing contraction. Many believe this survey correlates to the ISM Manufacturing Survey which will be released next week.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August 2026 fell 6% from last month - 11% below a year ago. The authors blame the decline on inflation. As you all know, I am not a fan of consumer sentiment surveys as they have no correlation to economic activity.

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27 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Tech Powers Wall Street Higher

Gary Hall — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:15:56 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Wall Street caught a massive second wind today. A flood of strong earnings and upbeat outlooks finally gave investors something to celebrate. The Nasdaq finished near its high for the day as the market shook off concerns about sticky inflation and whatever hints the Federal Reserve might drop at Jackson Hole. Big tech was at the center of it all, with massive corporate spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure still driving the market.

Nvidia basically carried the market after blowing past profit targets and forecasting even higher sales next quarter. Salesforce caught a nice bid on solid revenue and a fresh partnership with an AI lab. Other software names, including Okta, CrowdStrike and Veeva Systems, also jumped after raising their full-year guidance.

You will find more infographics at Statista.

Outside of tech, it was a completely different story. Dollar General crushed it with a solid quarter and a new buyback authorization. HP got hammered after weak PC shipments and brutal component costs overshadowed its earnings beat. Wendy’s plummeted after a major investment group walked away from a potential buyout. Best Buy finished in the red despite decent numbers as investors remained nervous about retail. Treasury yields barely moved as investors weighed the earnings news against the Fed’s upcoming speech.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey composite index was 10 in August 2026, up from 9 in July. This suggests strong growth in manufacturing but unfortunately the hard data has yet to confirm strong growth.

In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 205,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 204,000 to 204,250. These levels are consistent with an expanding economy.

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26August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Bounce Around as Nvidia Looms

Gary Hall — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 20:08:30 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Wall Street spent most of today going nowhere as investors waited for Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report after the closing bell. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were choppy, crossing back and forth over the unchanged line several times. The Dow was different. It stayed just below unchanged for most of the session in a relatively horizontal line. By the close, the S&P 500 was near the unchanged line, while the Nasdaq had slipped back into the red after briefly moving higher.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield moved higher as traders looked ahead to the Jackson Hole economic symposium. WTI crude oil futures moved lower as reports of easing tensions in the Middle East took some pressure off the market.

There was more action in individual stocks. Abercrombie & Fitch soared after raising its full-year outlook, and SolarEdge gained following a broker upgrade. Intuit, Zoom, and Kohl’s headed lower on disappointing guidance or weak sales. Moderna also slipped as investors took some profits.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real (inflation-adjusted) Personal Consumption Expenditures declined from 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) to 2.1% YoY in July 2026. Real Disposable Personal Income was unchanged at 0.5% growth YoY. The inflation measuring PCE price index was unchanged at 3.7% growth YoY. The PCE price index less food and energy was unchanged at 3.3% growth YoY. In summary, inflation did not moderate, consumers are spending more for their houses & health care, and consumers are spending less on their cars.

The second estimate of 2Q2026 Real gross domestic product (GDP) shows an increase of 2.1% YoY - unchanged from the initial estimate. This is a real YoY calculation, unlike the headline 1.5% which extrapolates the quarter to pretend it is a yearly growth. The headline number is misleading as tiny errors get exaggerated by factors of 4. Inflation (as expressed by the GDP Implicit Price Deflator) was 4.4% YoY. Inflation is not a friend to GDP growth.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July 2026 jumped to 12.9% YoY - not adjusted for inflation. This gain is spread out over metals, machinery, computers, defense spending, and transport. As the PCE above says durable goods spending was down, one must assume that this increase in durable goods purchases came from business and government purchases.

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25 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Get a Little Breathing Room

Gary Hall — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 20:06:58 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Stocks actually opened with a decent jump this morning. The S&P and Nasdaq were trying to shake off the beatdown they took earlier in the week. Things flattened out pretty quickly and got choppy, but the market managed to hold onto a moderate gain by the close. Falling oil prices and a dip in 10-year Treasury yields provided a nice tailwind. The Treasury's move to buy back more long-dated bonds helped push yields lower as well.

Tech and chip stocks did heavy lifting again. AMD and Marvell got a boost from fresh analyst upgrades, and Nvidia ticked up as everyone holds their breath for earnings. The big debate right now is still whether this massive demand for AI chips has real staying power or if we’re hitting a temporary ceiling.

Outside of tech, it was a wild day for individual names. Dick’s Sporting Goods took an absolute beating—down over 26% after whiffing on earnings and slashing guidance.

On the flip side, Moderna popped 10% on positive late-stage results for its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, and Super Micro jumped 8% after teaming up with Cisco. Oh, and crypto had a moment too, with Bitcoin pushing back over $80K and taking Coinbase and Robinhood along for the ride.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index showed a 1.5% annual gain for June 2026. The 20-City Composite was up 2.1% year-over-year (YoY), up from a 1.6% YoY in the previous month.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for August 2026 was little changed, decreasing insignificantly from 5 to 4. This is the only regional Fed survey that declined in August.

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2026 were down 5.7% YoY - and well below last months +3.5% YoY. New houses for sale is down 1.6% YoY. This represents a supply of 9.6 months at the current sales rate. The median sales price was $393,800. This is the lowest sales price since August 2021.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 0.8 points to 89.4 in August 2026, down from 90.2 in July. Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month. Not believing consumer confidence has anything to do with the economy or personal finance, as it has been declining since mid-2021.

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24 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Tech Selloff Pulls Nasdaq Lower as Dow Ends Higher

Gary Hall — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 20:19:33 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: CNBC, google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Wall Street had a mixed day.. Tech was the weak spot, as it has been on recent down days, with Micron and Marvell falling sharply. Investors await for Nvidia’s earnings later this week. Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed lower, while the Dow remained in the green as industrial and defensive stocks held their ground.

Steel shares rose after trade talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down. Oil was choppy as tensions in the Middle East continued.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

My favorite coincident index, the Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index Three month Moving Average, indicates economic activity through July 2026 insignificantly slowed from 0.01 in June to -0.04. This level shows the economy is expanding near the historical rate of growth.

Media Financial News and Opinion Summary:

Weekend talks fell apart as the U.S. put new 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. President Trump later talked about hiking tariffs on Canadian autos and steel even higher starting next year. Ottawa said it would hit back dollar-for-dollar.

Traders took some profits while waiting to hear details from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the latest push to squeeze Iran economically. It puts secondary pressure on any country or company still doing business with Tehran. The media claims that this uncertainty kept a lid on crude even though the broader Middle East situation remains tense.

In India, local papers focused on the usual mix of market moves and corporate news. Sensex and Nifty were quiet to slightly soft. There were big project wins for companies like Larsen & Toubro in the Middle East, investment plans from Godrej, and the usual articles about sugar prices, housing data, and the impact of global oil on the rupee and energy costs.

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Trucking Data Spells Recession But the Data Sucks

Steven Hansen — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 11:07:02 GMT

Data is no better than the methodology used to capture it. Currently, indicators suggest a truck freight recession.

As an example, the BLS Nonfarm Payroll data shows the trucking sector has lost over 100,000 jobs in the last few years? Yet, data from other government agencies shows diesel fuel consumption remains relatively strong, along with the truck traffic on toll roads.

My Spidey senses tingle when I look at the monthly truck transport data - both employment and quantities moved. The volumes are too low.

The following graph compares Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) tractor registrations, employment, truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT), fuel, ton-miles, ton-miles/tractor, and ton-miles/employee

That is a pig’s breakfast of inconsistent data. The data series do not correlate to each other, as the background conditions for each of the series are far from static. As an example, fuel economy has improved for newer vehicles, which theoretically should translate to lower fuel use to move the same amount of freight.

The published truck ton-mile data series does not rise proportionally to the improvement in the energy efficiency of the truck fleet. Beginning around 2010, the relationship between measured heavy-truck activity, fuel consumption, and reported freight ton-miles diverged. After accounting for improvements in fleet fuel efficiency, the calculated freight activity began to exceed published truck ton-mile estimates.

Here is the problem. There can be many reasons for a divergence. Drawing any provable conclusion requires data that does not exist. Here are some of the potential reasons for the chaotic trucking industry data:

The data gathering misses big chunks of activity
A higher percentage of trucks are sitting idle
Empty/backhaul miles have increased
Independent trucking is growing and not being counted
Payload/load-factor changes
The government has changed some of its estimating methodology and has warned that the new data is not comparable with the older ones
The government knows of some of the blind spots in its data collection methodology. To compensate, federal modelers rely on algorithms to fill in the gaps. Are these adjustments still valid in the current economy?

All of the above likely have some impact on the trucking industry data - and combined, create chaos.

Market Fragmentation

Let me paint the anecdotal picture I believe is creating the bulk of the chaotic data.

When a driver goes independent, they vanish from the employment and other trucking industry data. Instead of long-term corporate shipping contracts, this fragmented network relies entirely on spot-market apps and digital load boards.

Because these transactions bypass the established formal system, the government agencies are blind to this activity.

Thousands of drivers are becoming independent. Some are even using lighter equipment such as heavy-duty pickup trucks towing fifth-wheel trailers. These smaller operations can bypass expensive commercial weigh stations, navigate complex urban and regional routes more cheaply, and work outside the rigid compliance frameworks of large carriers.

This fragmentation puts a chunk of freight tonnage below the radar.

the bottom line ________________

My position is that the freight economy is not in a recession - it has fragmented. The trucking industry has shifted towards a network of independent owner-operators. The goods are still moving - they are just slipping beneath the formal statistical radar.

The arguments I have made in this post have been boiled down. This post is an executive summary. I could not conclusively prove or disprove what is going on in this sector.

Hopefully, this is the worst case of data-gathering failures in the US economy.

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Saturday Newsletter: NOAA Issues a Well-reasoned Four- Season Outlook - August 22, 2026

Sigmund Silber — Sat, 22 Aug 2026 11:23:09 GMT

As usual, we begin with current weather updates.

Now we address the main topic of this article.

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We cover the NOAA Four-Season Outlook in detail. The NOAA discussion is definitely worth reading this month, as they have gotten serious about their analysis. I have been waiting for that to happen. I expect some additional adjustments next month. Separate from the NOAA analysis, we also include the Copernicus analysis for Indonesia since the El Niño phase of the ENSO Cycle often causes dry conditions in places that are wet during La Niña conditions.

On the third Thursday of each month, right on schedule, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues its updated Seasonal Outlook, which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends beyond one year into the future. The information released also includes the Mid-month Outlook for the following month, as well as the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it.

Let us take a look at the (mid-month Outlook) for September 2026

It will be updated on the last day of August.

Notice that for August, the area where the probability of being warmer than usual is quite large, but there is also a large area rated EC (equal chances). The Monsoon is shown, and it impacts many states while attempting to avoid New Mexico, or at least not be wetter than normal in much of New Mexico for September.

Now we look at a graphic showing the next month and the next three months.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month, which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month. Usually, the Outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal, which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation, but the probabilities of a change from what is defined as normal, or, to use the technical term, “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are substantially different. This tells us that October and November for many areas will be very different from September in terms of deviation from Normal for both temperature and precipitation.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through September/October/November of 2027 (yes, that is more than a year out and way into 2027), but the first six months are more reliable than the tail end of this Outlook.

Large maps are provided for September and the three-month period September/October/November. Small maps are provided beyond that through Sepember/October/November of 2027, with a link to get larger versions of all the maps. NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article.

Here are larger versions of the temperature and precipitation Outlook maps for next month. Remember that these maps will be updated at the end of this month.

Utah and some neighboring states are expected to have the highest probability of being warmer than normal.

The precipitation pattern is strange for a late-season monsoon, but it seems NOAA sees the Monsoon as sort of merging with the El Niño pattern in the Fall.

Three-Month Maps

Here are large versions of the three-month SON 2026 Outlooks: first temperature, followed by precipitation. These maps are larger versions of what was shown earlier.

Again, the three-month map is very different than the one-month map, indicating a change after the first month of the three-month period.

Looking Ahead.

Like I did last month, I include a precipitation graphic for this coming winter.

Below is what they thought for the same period of time last month. You can see the change. It is a bit less promising for the Southwest but good news for California. I would not be surprised if there was more of a shift next month. NOAA (actually the Climate Prediction Center) has begun to think in terms of previous El Niños that have some similarity with what they see developing. I do not know if they have it correct, but I see a lot of effort in their analysis this month.

NOAA Discussion

Maps tell a story, but to really understand what is predicted to happen, you need to read the discussion. It is especially detailed and useful this month.

I combined the 30-day discussion with the long-term discussion and rearranged it a bit, and added a few additional titles (where they are not all caps, the titles are my additions). Combining the two discussions results in some redundancy, but I wanted to have the outlook for the coming month explained in detail.

I use bold type to highlight some especially important things. My comments, if any, are enclosed in brackets [ ].

Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
El Niño strengthened over the past month, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly Niño index values were +1.8°C in Niño-3.4, +2.5°C in Niño-3, and +3.2°C in Niño-1+2. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased during July, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline. Subsurface temperature anomalies were significant, reaching +10.0°C at depth. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall were enhanced from the central to eastern Pacific and were suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative, with values near 2 standard deviations during July. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
The CPC Official El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year. During the October-November-December (OND) 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value) [Author’s Note: “I have previously expressed skepticism about the the new RONI approach to measuring NINO measurement areas. There is no need for me to repeat my skepticism in this article”] . With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2026
El Nino conditions in both the ocean and atmosphere have continued to strengthen entering mid-August 2026. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near or greater than +3 degrees C in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the latest weekly Nino3.4 SST index value is +1.8 degrees C. A vast reservoir of above-normal ocean temperatures exists along the equator from the Date Line eastward to the South America coast to a depth of 200 meters. The atmospheric response to these ocean characteristics has been quite strong, namely enhanced convection over the central and eastern Pacific, strongly reduced Trade Winds and upper-level anticyclonic circulations symmetric about the equator.
Response to the El Nino conditions is the primary driver of anomalous upper-level divergence, convection and winds in the global Tropics. Any Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) related forcing is minor in this context and given the time of the year. Below-normal surface moisture conditions encompass much of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) with severe, extreme and exceptional drought conditions as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor covering many areas across the western U.S., Great Plains and coastal Southeast.
Temperature
The September Temperature Outlook favors above-normal monthly mean temperatures for the western CONUS, the southern Plains, the Southeast, and Southeast mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska (i.e., Panhandle). Equal-Chances (EC) for above-, near- and below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Northern Plains, Midwest, Northeast and parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The greatest probabilities for warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the north-central Rockies and Intermountain West. Dry surface conditions, dynamical and hybrid model guidance from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) suites, the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS)-Beta and very strong positive (warmer) long-term temperature trends strongly support the forecast for above-normal temperatures.
The above outlined factors and model guidance also support the Southern Plains and Southeast forecast for above-normal temperatures. Potential El Nino influence (i.e., slight tilt toward cooler than normal temperatures), closer to normal surface conditions and considerable spread in forecast guidance including that targeting the Week 3-4 period, particularly from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, is the reason for the EC forecast area. Throughout the summer months, frequent troughing and cooler temperatures has impacted this area. The forecast in this region will be refined with the updated monthly outlook later this month.
Below-normal SSTs off the coast of the Pacific Northwest lower the odds for above-normal temperatures for near coast areas in this region. Potential for above-normal precipitation over the Southwest U.S. and southern Rockies lowers the likelihood for above-normal temperatures in this area. For Alaska, El Nino conditions, above-normal SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and the majority of model guidance support the above-normal temperatures depicted for much of the state. EC is forecast for remaining areas due to considerable forecast guidance spread.
Precipitation
Ongoing El Nino conditions, statistical, dynamical and hybrid model guidance and positive (wetter) long-term precipitation trends support the favored wetter than normal conditions across the western CONUS. NMME, C3S and SFS-Beta model guidance is utilized for the forecast in interior Alaska and elevated odds for below-normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and western Great Lakes. The signals from the model guidance noted here are quite weak and marginally linked to potential El Nino impacts.
The slightly elevated likelihood for above-normal precipitation over the Ohio Valley, Central Plains and central Mississippi Valley is primarily based on general persistence from what we have observed much of the recent couple of months. Subtropical ridging across the southern tier of the U.S. has been overall quite persistent while shifting zonally. In association with this ridging, enhanced rainfall has occurred on the northern periphery of the ridge due to residual surface boundaries and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity [Author’s Note: “Here they are talking about where severe weather has been occuring”].
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS (Focus on September through November)
El Niño conditions are present, as represented in current oceanic and atmospheric observations. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event this fall and winter.
Temperature
The September-October-November (SON) 2026 Temperature Outlook favors above normal temperatures for most of Alaska as well as the western and central Contiguous United States (CONUS), the Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Florida, and coastal areas of the Southeast and Gulf. The highest probabilities (greater than 50 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast across southeastern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and adjacent areas of the Northern High Plains and northwestern California.
Precipitation
The SON 2026 Precipitation Outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation amounts from the southwestern CONUS to the central and southern High Plains as well as for parts of the Southeast and western mainland Alaska. The greatest chances (higher than 40 percent) for above normal precipitation are indicated for much of the Southwest and adjacent areas of the Great Basin and Central and Southern Rockies as well as for parts of the coastal Southeast. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation amounts are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and across northern and eastern Washington State and adjacent areas of northern Idaho and northwestern Montana.
Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
Composites derived from the current and forecast state of ENSO were strongly utilized due to the magnitude of this El Niño event. Additionally, analogs tuned to the current Eastern Pacific (EP) orientation of this El Niño event as well as its evolution from a preceding La Niña winter were consulted.
Dynamical model forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and the Copernicus (C3S) multi-model ensemble system were also used for the first six leads when they are available, as was the objective, historical skill-weighted consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that combines both dynamical and statistical forecast information. Analysis of antecedent conditions such as extratropical SST anomalies and sea ice extent were considered where appropriate. At later leads, decadal trends in temperature and precipitation were increasingly relied upon in creating the seasonal outlooks.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - SON 2026 TO SON 2027
TEMPERATURE
One of the major forecast challenges for the upcoming fall is balancing potential El Niño impacts with recent trends . Despite the magnitude of this El Niño, temperature impacts are surprisingly muted during the fall season, even among strong events, as the greatest impacts tend to express themselves during the winter months. Underscoring the lower fall predictability, the closest natural analogs to the current El Niño event produced a wide variation of outcomes for SON, ranging from a cold eastern half of the CONUS to widespread warmth almost from coast to coast. At the same time, recent warm trends (comparing the last 15 years of observations to the 1991-2020 base climatology) for the SON season are among the strongest and most widespread of any three month period, especially across the western and central CONUS. As such, recent trends were relied upon extensively for the SON temperature outlook with El Niño becoming the dominant factor as we approach winter. Dynamical model guidance is generally in agreement with trends in supporting increased chances of above normal temperatures across most of the country. A notable exception is the southern Plains, where recent trends suggest a much greater chance of above normal temperatures than represented by model guidance. The temperature outlook for SON features an area of EC across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and adjacent areas, where warm trends are relatively weak compared to other areas of the country. Elsewhere, the rest of the CONUS tilts warm, consistent with trends. The greatest confidence of above normal temperatures (above 50 percent chance) is forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and adjacent areas of northwestern California and the northern High Plains, where trends and dynamical model guidance are in good alignment. Most of Alaska is also favored for above normal temperatures as trends , temperature counts of observations from strong to very strong El Niño events, and dynamical model guidance all support widespread warmth. Confidence is highest (greater than 50 percent chance) across southeastern parts of the state where the consensus of guidance yields the strongest warm signal.
As we progress later in the Fall and especially through the winter (OND through February-March-April (FMA)), El Niño impacts play a much more prominent role. By OND, EC is indicated across the Southeast and south-central CONUS, expanding to the southwestern CONUS by December-January-February (DJF), as El Niño tends to suppress above normal temperature chances across the southern tier. Beginning in November-December-January (NDJ) and extending through FMA, near normal temperatures are favored for much of the southeastern CONUS where cool El Niño impacts and warm trends are in opposition and observations from the closest analogs to the current El Niño event came in near normal. Conversely, confidence increases during the late fall and winter for above normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS with probabilities exceeding 50 percent from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast by DJF. Two of the closest analogs to the current El Niño also featured a southward extension of above normal temperatures across much of the Mississippi Valley and eastern Great Plains. As such, a modest tilt (33 to 40 percent chance) toward above normal temperatures extends southward across much of the eastern Plains and adjacent areas of the Mississippi Valley during DJF and January-February-March (JFM). Across Alaska, increased chances of above normal temperatures become more focused on eastern parts of the state as we approach late fall and early winter, where El Niño composites show the most support. The greatest confidence for above normal temperatures (above 50 percent chance) is indicated for Southeast Alaska from OND through FMA with confidence decreasing across western Alaska where El Niño impacts are more uncertain. Looking further ahead to next spring and summer, a transition to a trend-based pattern is forecast, with above normal temperatures favored for the eastern and western third of the CONUS and the southern tier by April-May-June (AMJ) and persisting through the summer into early next fall. Increased chances of warmer than normal conditions are forecast across much of Alaska for much of next year, especially across eastern parts of the state.
During the SON season, RONI-based El Niño composites show more substantive precipitation impacts as opposed to the more muted temperature composites. These El Niño composites highlight a robust wet signal from the Southern Plains to the Southeast as well as from the southwestern CONUS northeastward to the Central Plains. Dynamical model guidance is in agreement with these signals, favoring above normal precipitation for most of the southern half of the CONUS. However, this widespread wetness across the southern tier of the CONUS is in strong opposition to recent trends , which depicts a strong dry signal across the Mississippi Valley and eastern Plains. Moreover, the closest natural analogs to the current EP-based El Niño are suggestive of a delayed onset of the robust cold season wet signal across the southern tier. As such EC is indicated for the SON season across the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern areas of the Southern Plains, where dry trends are the strongest. Above normal precipitation is favored from the southwestern CONUS to the central High Plains, broadly consistent with El Niño composites and the potential for increased moisture advection from the warmer than normal eastern tropical Pacific. Above normal precipitation is also favored for parts of the Southeast, where dynamical model guidance is in good agreement and El Niño composites tilt wet. Conversely, trends and El Niño composites slightly favor dry across parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes, where below normal precipitation is modestly favored. Below normal precipitation is also modestly favored for northern and eastern Washington State and adjacent areas of the northern Rockies, broadly consistent with dynamical model guidance. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for western Alaska, consistent with composites derived from strong to very strong El Niño years.
From late fall through winter, El Niño impacts are expected to increase slowly at first before quickly ramping up during the core winter months and especially late winter. The closest recent analogs to this EP-based strong to very strong El Niño event are suggestive of a delayed onset of the greatest impacts across the southern CONUS. As such, chances for above normal precipitation remain modest (generally 33 to 50 percent chance) across the southern tier, Southeast, and Central and Southern Plains during OND. A northward extension of these modestly elevated above normal precipitation chances is forecast across much of the Plains, generally consistent with dynamical model guidance and El Niño composites. As we progress deeper into the cold season, the closest analogs to the current El Niño together with dynamical model guidance suggest a rapid increase in El Niño impacts across both the West and East coasts as well as the southern tier and continued impacts northward across the central Plains. The signal is especially robust across much of California and the Southeast. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 60 percent across parts of the Southeast by NDJ and enhanced probabilities persist through JFM. Additionally the tilt toward above normal precipitation extends along almost the entire East Coast from NDJ through FMA. Meanwhile, along the West Coast, recent EP-based strong El Niños have produced copious precipitation, especially in late winter, with 2024 and 1998 being among the wettest Februaries in the last 100 years for parts of California. As such, probabilities of above normal precipitation were increased significantly to above 50 percent across much of coastal California and adjacent areas of southern Arizona from DJF through FMA, peaking in coverage during JFM. Notably some of the closest analogs to the current El Niño were wet well north along the West Coast, even encroaching much of the southern half of the Pacific Northwest. Accordingly, a tilt toward below normal precipitation often associated with El Niño was left off the coast and restricted to inland areas such as the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains during the core winter months. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for parts of the Great Lakes. EC is indicated farther to the south across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys during winter as natural analogs to the current El Niño are not supportive of a robust dry signal. Meanwhile across Alaska, a rapid transition from a wetter pattern in SON to a drier pattern by DJF is forecast across much of the Mainland, supported by composites from strong to very strong El Niño events, with modestly elevated chances of above normal precipitation restricted to small portions of southeastern Alaska. By later next Spring, cold season El Niño impacts are forecast to gradually ramp down with elevated above normal precipitation chances exiting much of the East Coast by AMJ and from the entirety of the southwestern CONUS by MJJ. The El Niño based dry signal over parts of mainland Alaska times out by AMJ. By next summer, trend dominates the outlooks, with the most expansive features being a tilt toward below normal precipitation across much of the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS, excluding coastal areas, and a tilt toward above normal precipitation across much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Drought Outlook

NOAA also issues a Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is tied to the precipitation and temperature outlooks, plus the initial conditions. That means, among other things, that current soil conditions need to be considered when doing a drought forecast.

The yellow is the bad news, but there is not much of it, and there remains a fair amount of area where drought is expected to persist. The green/gray area where drought is expected to improve is much larger than the tan or brown areas. It is relatively good news.

Short CPC Drought Discussion

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 30 days, drought conditions remain nearly unchanged across much of the West. Across the North Central and South Central Plains, improvement was followed by worsening (1 to 3 class degradation). Over the Southeast, 1 to 3 class improvement was observed. Across the Northeast, removal was followed by development. Overall, as of August 11, 2026, about 74% of the CONUS was covered by anomalous dry conditions and nearly half of the CONUS was under moderate to exceptional (D1 to D4) drought conditions. Looking ahead from the remainder of August through the end of November, very strong El Nino conditions are favored to have an increasing impact on climate anomalies. Across the Pacific Northwest, the CPC outlooks favor warmer and dry weather patterns, with seasonably dry conditions for larger parts of the September-October-November season, drought persistence is expected and additional drought expansion across parts of the Northwest is likely. Enhanced monsoon moisture driven by warmer Pacific ocean temperatures favors widespread drought reduction across the Southwest, Great Basin region and much of the Rockies. Drought persistence is anticipated across parts of the Northern and Southern Great Plains, with some potential development due to lack of wet signals in the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks. Across the Southeast, seasonable wetness favors a gradual reduction in drought coverage, but the potential for reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, may make drought slower to ease across portions of the region. Daily seabreeze convection across Florida may also not be sufficient to completely remove drought conditions that were very intense at the onset of the summer rainy season. Across southern parts of the Northeast region, drought reduction is favored, while persistence is anticipated for the existing drought across northeastern portions of the Northeast region.
Recent D1 (moderate) drought conditions in east-central Alaska are projected to improve, whereas those in southeastern Alaska are expected to continue. Drought is neither present nor forecast for the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, drought conditions continue to actively expand across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The anticipated strong El Nino will likely suppress convective activity, further exacerbating regional impacts.

Twelve new three-month temperature maps. Notice that these maps begin after the initial three-month map that is featured earlier in this article.

Comparing the new Outlook with the prior Outlook.

A useful way of looking at this is to compare the new set of 12 overlapping three-month maps with the prior set issued last month.

The easiest way to do the comparison is to print out both maps. If you have a color printer, that is great, but it is not needed. What I do is number the images from last month, 1 - 12, starting with “1” and going left to right, and then dropping down one row. Then, for the new set of images, I number them 2 - 13. That is because one image from last month in the upper left is now discarded, and a new image on the lower right is added. Once you get used to it, it is not difficult. In theory, the changes are discussed in the NOAA discussion, but I usually find more changes. It is not necessarily important. I try to identify the changes, but I believe it would make this article overly long to enumerate them. The information is here for anyone who wishes to examine the changes.

Now the Twelve New Precipitation Three-Month Maps

The major El Niño months are outlined in red. You can see that they are cooler than recently in the Southern Tier.

Comparing the new Outlook with the prior Outlook.

Similar to Temperature in terms of the organization of the twelve overlapping three-month outlooks.

As with temperature, another useful way of looking at this is to compare the new set of 12 overlapping three-month maps with the prior set.

A good approach for doing this comparison is provided in the temperature discussion.

Some key pieces of information used by NOAA are as follows. The full prior article can be accessed (HERE)

Strength Probabilities.

Current Analysis

Here is the NOAA Proprietary Model, but it is soon to be updated/replaced. (LINK).

It is also based on the new index. I updated this model, and it seems to be somewhat less extreme in its prediction. It is still predicting a very strong El Niño rivaling the strongest El Niños ever, but it seems to be related to Planet Earth, unlike the graphic just above it. But I do not rule out the other graphic proving to be correct.

Resources

You can also find these maps individually on the CPC.NCEP Main Page. You can get to a lot of places from there, but to make it easy, here is the monthly discussion, and here is the long-term discussion, which includes the state of the Atmosphere. I have shown it in the text earlier in this article.

The image showing the Early Outlook for the subsequent month and the three-month outlook can be obtained by Clicking Here.

All of the three-month maps and the graphic that shows all twelve of them can be found here. It extends out for 12 overlapping three-month periods in addition to the most immediate three-month period. I like this graphic as you can see the forecast change in the pattern as the phases of ENSO come and go, plus factoring in the seasonal trends.

The link for the drought outlook map and some discussions that come with the map can be found by clicking HERE.

Other Reports and Information

The Wildfire Forecast can be accessed HERE. They update on the first of the month, so what is shown is a bit out of date, but you have the link. Flooding is a risk also.

Indonesia - Current Problems Which May Be Made Worse by El Nino.

Copernicus: Indonesia’s seasonal fires intensify as boreal wildfire smoke impacts the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic
Smoke from increasing fire emissions in Indonesia from the CAMS forecast of organic matter aerosol optical depth valid for 0 UTC on 20 August. Data visualization from the CAMS Fire Emissions Watch application (source: CAMS/ECMWF).
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has been tracking significant wildfire activity across North America and northern Eurasia, sending large columns of smoke into the Arctic, as well as Southeast Asia and Europe since the start of August. CAMS is also monitoring an intense start to Indonesia’s seasonal wildfires, expected to be enhanced by El Niño.
Late July and the first weeks of August saw intense seasonal fires begin in Indonesia. Vegetation fires are common during Indonesia’s dry season between the end of July and the end of October, and 2026 is projected to be particularly intense year, as to be expected with a strong positive El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific.
Initial fires were mainly over the Island of Borneo, and across the Indonesian provinces of West and Central Kalimantan, with smoke pollution leading to school closures and more regional impacts including both Singapore and Malaysia. Indonesian authorities are using cloud seeding – spraying chemicals such as iodide and salt into clouds – to induce rain and help mitigate air pollution from fires. The region’s vast peatlands make fire management exceptionally difficult once the fires begin as they can potentially burn underground and at lower temperatures.
Wildfires continue across the Northern Hemisphere
Sustained dry conditions and heatwaves across Europe have favoured an extreme fire risk for large parts of the continent up to mid-August. Belgium had its largest wildfire since satellite measurements began burning 3,000 hectares during the course of several days from 14 August with the smoke impacts causing the German border city of Monschau to issue evacuation orders.
The scale of the fires in northwestern Europe was tamed through favourable meteorological conditions, including some precipitation, which helped fight flames and reduce fire risks for the region in recent days. Spain, France, Greece, the Balkans and parts of Germany remained heavily impacted by significant fire activity into the second half of August, including a large fire in the French region of Landes and major fire activity in Spanish regions of Huelva and Huesca.
Particularly intense fire activity has been observed in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, British Columbia and Canada’s Northwest Territories, where fires have continued to burn at some of the highest rates seen in recent decades. In the United States, wildfires in July and August saw the highest year-to-date emissions for Washington and Oregon, while Utah saw its highest fire emissions since at least 2003, driven by wildfires in June, July and August. The GFAS dataset, produced by CAMS, places 2026 slightly above average for the time of year for the United States as a whole.
Mark Parrington, a Senior Scientist at ECMWF and working for CAMS, said: “Based on our years of monitoring during the summer months, we expect to see continuation of wildfire emissions around the Northern Hemisphere through to the end of August. However, for some regions experiencing large-scale and persistent fires, such as the Siberian Arctic, the peak emissions have been occurring slightly later than usual and at a time where the number of fires might be expected to decrease. For Indonesia, seasonal fire emissions and regional haze are already enhanced, consistent with previous El Niño years, and we will be monitoring the situation very closely to understand how the fires and air quality impacts are changing.”
Extreme wildfires impact northern regions of Russia
In northern Russia, wildfires in Yamal-Nenets, Krasnoyarsk and parts of Sakha Republic have generated substantial emissions, with Yamal-Nenets recording its highest daily emissions on record during August. Despite this activity, and while these northern regions experienced some of their highest fire emissions since 2003, Russia as a whole has experienced below average emissions for this time of the year, and far below the most catastrophic seasons, such as 2012 and 2021.
Charts of cumulative daily total estimated wildfire emissions from high northern latitudes (60-66.6 N) and the Arctic Circle (66.6-90 N) for 2003 to 2026 (source: CAMS/ECMWF).
Smoke from both the North American and Russian fires has been transported around large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including across the Arctic. CAMS monitoring indicates that fire emissions at high northern latitudes and within the Arctic Circle are currently above average, making 2026 one of the most active recent years for Arctic wildfire emissions.
While emissions have risen sharply in several fire-effected regions in recent weeks, lower than average emissions from seasonal biomass burning across tropical Africa mean that the year-to-date global total is still currently at lowest values in the 24 years of the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) dataset. The GFAS dataset, and others, indicate that reduced seasonal fires in tropical Africa is a major contributing factor to the general decrease in year-to-date global emissions.
CAMS uses its Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) to provide near real-time monitoring of wildfire emissions worldwide. GFAS uses satellite observations of Fire Radiative Power to estimate emissions from wildfire and biomass burning and feeds these emissions into ECMWF atmospheric forecasts. This enables CAMS to track the transport of smoke and forecast air quality impacts up to five days in advance. The freely available data supports researchers, policymakers, emergency responders and the public in understanding and responding to wildfire events around the world.
-ENDS-
More information on Copernicus: www.copernicus.eu
The ECMWF website can be found at
https://www.ecmwf.int/

I hope you found this article interesting and useful

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Weather Outlook for the United States and the World

]

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The authors develop and empirically test a notion of production complementarity (a higher value of one input raising the return to another) that is ordinal, meaning that it holds across all valuations of the output. Relative to existing conventions, this version of ordinal complementarity obtains more generalizable policy content: in two broad classes of planning problems, it is both a necessary and sufficient condition for optimal allocations to be monotone.

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Disclaimer

NOAA Issues a Well-reasoned Four- Season Outlook - August 22, 2026

Sigmund Silber — Sat, 22 Aug 2026 11:17:44 GMT

As usual, we begin with current weather updates.

Now we address the main topic of this article.

Let us take a look at the (mid-month Outlook) for September 2026

It will be updated on the last day of August.

Now we look at a graphic showing the next month and the next three months.

Here are larger versions of the temperature and precipitation Outlook maps for next month. Remember that these maps will be updated at the end of this month.

Utah and some neighboring states are expected to have the highest probability of being warmer than normal.

The precipitation pattern is strange for a late-season monsoon, but it seems NOAA sees the Monsoon as sort of merging with the El Niño pattern in the Fall.

Three-Month Maps

Here are large versions of the three-month SON 2026 Outlooks: first temperature, followed by precipitation. These maps are larger versions of what was shown earlier.

Again, the three-month map is very different than the one-month map, indicating a change after the first month of the three-month period.

Looking Ahead.

Like I did last month, I include a precipitation graphic for this coming winter.

NOAA Discussion

Maps tell a story, but to really understand what is predicted to happen, you need to read the discussion. It is especially detailed and useful this month.

I use bold type to highlight some especially important things. My comments, if any, are enclosed in brackets [ ].

Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
El Niño strengthened over the past month, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies exceeding +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly Niño index values were +1.8°C in Niño-3.4, +2.5°C in Niño-3, and +3.2°C in Niño-1+2. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased during July, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline. Subsurface temperature anomalies were significant, reaching +10.0°C at depth. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall were enhanced from the central to eastern Pacific and were suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative, with values near 2 standard deviations during July. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
The CPC Official El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year. During the October-November-December (OND) 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value) [Author’s Note: “I have previously expressed skepticism about the the new RONI approach to measuring NINO measurement areas. There is no need for me to repeat my skepticism in this article”] . With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER 2026
El Nino conditions in both the ocean and atmosphere have continued to strengthen entering mid-August 2026. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near or greater than +3 degrees C in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the latest weekly Nino3.4 SST index value is +1.8 degrees C. A vast reservoir of above-normal ocean temperatures exists along the equator from the Date Line eastward to the South America coast to a depth of 200 meters. The atmospheric response to these ocean characteristics has been quite strong, namely enhanced convection over the central and eastern Pacific, strongly reduced Trade Winds and upper-level anticyclonic circulations symmetric about the equator.
Response to the El Nino conditions is the primary driver of anomalous upper-level divergence, convection and winds in the global Tropics. Any Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) related forcing is minor in this context and given the time of the year. Below-normal surface moisture conditions encompass much of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) with severe, extreme and exceptional drought conditions as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor covering many areas across the western U.S., Great Plains and coastal Southeast.
Temperature
The September Temperature Outlook favors above-normal monthly mean temperatures for the western CONUS, the southern Plains, the Southeast, and Southeast mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska (i.e., Panhandle). Equal-Chances (EC) for above-, near- and below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Northern Plains, Midwest, Northeast and parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The greatest probabilities for warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the north-central Rockies and Intermountain West. Dry surface conditions, dynamical and hybrid model guidance from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) suites, the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS)-Beta and very strong positive (warmer) long-term temperature trends strongly support the forecast for above-normal temperatures.
The above outlined factors and model guidance also support the Southern Plains and Southeast forecast for above-normal temperatures. Potential El Nino influence (i.e., slight tilt toward cooler than normal temperatures), closer to normal surface conditions and considerable spread in forecast guidance including that targeting the Week 3-4 period, particularly from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, is the reason for the EC forecast area. Throughout the summer months, frequent troughing and cooler temperatures has impacted this area. The forecast in this region will be refined with the updated monthly outlook later this month.
Below-normal SSTs off the coast of the Pacific Northwest lower the odds for above-normal temperatures for near coast areas in this region. Potential for above-normal precipitation over the Southwest U.S. and southern Rockies lowers the likelihood for above-normal temperatures in this area. For Alaska, El Nino conditions, above-normal SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska and the majority of model guidance support the above-normal temperatures depicted for much of the state. EC is forecast for remaining areas due to considerable forecast guidance spread.
Precipitation
Ongoing El Nino conditions, statistical, dynamical and hybrid model guidance and positive (wetter) long-term precipitation trends support the favored wetter than normal conditions across the western CONUS. NMME, C3S and SFS-Beta model guidance is utilized for the forecast in interior Alaska and elevated odds for below-normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and western Great Lakes. The signals from the model guidance noted here are quite weak and marginally linked to potential El Nino impacts.
The slightly elevated likelihood for above-normal precipitation over the Ohio Valley, Central Plains and central Mississippi Valley is primarily based on general persistence from what we have observed much of the recent couple of months. Subtropical ridging across the southern tier of the U.S. has been overall quite persistent while shifting zonally. In association with this ridging, enhanced rainfall has occurred on the northern periphery of the ridge due to residual surface boundaries and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity [Author’s Note: “Here they are talking about where severe weather has been occuring”].
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS (Focus on September through November)
El Niño conditions are present, as represented in current oceanic and atmospheric observations. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event this fall and winter.
Temperature
The September-October-November (SON) 2026 Temperature Outlook favors above normal temperatures for most of Alaska as well as the western and central Contiguous United States (CONUS), the Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Florida, and coastal areas of the Southeast and Gulf. The highest probabilities (greater than 50 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast across southeastern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and adjacent areas of the Northern High Plains and northwestern California.
Precipitation
The SON 2026 Precipitation Outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation amounts from the southwestern CONUS to the central and southern High Plains as well as for parts of the Southeast and western mainland Alaska. The greatest chances (higher than 40 percent) for above normal precipitation are indicated for much of the Southwest and adjacent areas of the Great Basin and Central and Southern Rockies as well as for parts of the coastal Southeast. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation amounts are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and across northern and eastern Washington State and adjacent areas of northern Idaho and northwestern Montana.
Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
Composites derived from the current and forecast state of ENSO were strongly utilized due to the magnitude of this El Niño event. Additionally, analogs tuned to the current Eastern Pacific (EP) orientation of this El Niño event as well as its evolution from a preceding La Niña winter were consulted.
Dynamical model forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and the Copernicus (C3S) multi-model ensemble system were also used for the first six leads when they are available, as was the objective, historical skill-weighted consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that combines both dynamical and statistical forecast information. Analysis of antecedent conditions such as extratropical SST anomalies and sea ice extent were considered where appropriate. At later leads, decadal trends in temperature and precipitation were increasingly relied upon in creating the seasonal outlooks.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - SON 2026 TO SON 2027
TEMPERATURE
One of the major forecast challenges for the upcoming fall is balancing potential El Niño impacts with recent trends . Despite the magnitude of this El Niño, temperature impacts are surprisingly muted during the fall season, even among strong events, as the greatest impacts tend to express themselves during the winter months. Underscoring the lower fall predictability, the closest natural analogs to the current El Niño event produced a wide variation of outcomes for SON, ranging from a cold eastern half of the CONUS to widespread warmth almost from coast to coast. At the same time, recent warm trends (comparing the last 15 years of observations to the 1991-2020 base climatology) for the SON season are among the strongest and most widespread of any three month period, especially across the western and central CONUS. As such, recent trends were relied upon extensively for the SON temperature outlook with El Niño becoming the dominant factor as we approach winter. Dynamical model guidance is generally in agreement with trends in supporting increased chances of above normal temperatures across most of the country. A notable exception is the southern Plains, where recent trends suggest a much greater chance of above normal temperatures than represented by model guidance. The temperature outlook for SON features an area of EC across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and adjacent areas, where warm trends are relatively weak compared to other areas of the country. Elsewhere, the rest of the CONUS tilts warm, consistent with trends. The greatest confidence of above normal temperatures (above 50 percent chance) is forecast for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and adjacent areas of northwestern California and the northern High Plains, where trends and dynamical model guidance are in good alignment. Most of Alaska is also favored for above normal temperatures as trends , temperature counts of observations from strong to very strong El Niño events, and dynamical model guidance all support widespread warmth. Confidence is highest (greater than 50 percent chance) across southeastern parts of the state where the consensus of guidance yields the strongest warm signal.
As we progress later in the Fall and especially through the winter (OND through February-March-April (FMA)), El Niño impacts play a much more prominent role. By OND, EC is indicated across the Southeast and south-central CONUS, expanding to the southwestern CONUS by December-January-February (DJF), as El Niño tends to suppress above normal temperature chances across the southern tier. Beginning in November-December-January (NDJ) and extending through FMA, near normal temperatures are favored for much of the southeastern CONUS where cool El Niño impacts and warm trends are in opposition and observations from the closest analogs to the current El Niño event came in near normal. Conversely, confidence increases during the late fall and winter for above normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS with probabilities exceeding 50 percent from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast by DJF. Two of the closest analogs to the current El Niño also featured a southward extension of above normal temperatures across much of the Mississippi Valley and eastern Great Plains. As such, a modest tilt (33 to 40 percent chance) toward above normal temperatures extends southward across much of the eastern Plains and adjacent areas of the Mississippi Valley during DJF and January-February-March (JFM). Across Alaska, increased chances of above normal temperatures become more focused on eastern parts of the state as we approach late fall and early winter, where El Niño composites show the most support. The greatest confidence for above normal temperatures (above 50 percent chance) is indicated for Southeast Alaska from OND through FMA with confidence decreasing across western Alaska where El Niño impacts are more uncertain. Looking further ahead to next spring and summer, a transition to a trend-based pattern is forecast, with above normal temperatures favored for the eastern and western third of the CONUS and the southern tier by April-May-June (AMJ) and persisting through the summer into early next fall. Increased chances of warmer than normal conditions are forecast across much of Alaska for much of next year, especially across eastern parts of the state.
During the SON season, RONI-based El Niño composites show more substantive precipitation impacts as opposed to the more muted temperature composites. These El Niño composites highlight a robust wet signal from the Southern Plains to the Southeast as well as from the southwestern CONUS northeastward to the Central Plains. Dynamical model guidance is in agreement with these signals, favoring above normal precipitation for most of the southern half of the CONUS. However, this widespread wetness across the southern tier of the CONUS is in strong opposition to recent trends , which depicts a strong dry signal across the Mississippi Valley and eastern Plains. Moreover, the closest natural analogs to the current EP-based El Niño are suggestive of a delayed onset of the robust cold season wet signal across the southern tier. As such EC is indicated for the SON season across the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern areas of the Southern Plains, where dry trends are the strongest. Above normal precipitation is favored from the southwestern CONUS to the central High Plains, broadly consistent with El Niño composites and the potential for increased moisture advection from the warmer than normal eastern tropical Pacific. Above normal precipitation is also favored for parts of the Southeast, where dynamical model guidance is in good agreement and El Niño composites tilt wet. Conversely, trends and El Niño composites slightly favor dry across parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes, where below normal precipitation is modestly favored. Below normal precipitation is also modestly favored for northern and eastern Washington State and adjacent areas of the northern Rockies, broadly consistent with dynamical model guidance. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for western Alaska, consistent with composites derived from strong to very strong El Niño years.
From late fall through winter, El Niño impacts are expected to increase slowly at first before quickly ramping up during the core winter months and especially late winter. The closest recent analogs to this EP-based strong to very strong El Niño event are suggestive of a delayed onset of the greatest impacts across the southern CONUS. As such, chances for above normal precipitation remain modest (generally 33 to 50 percent chance) across the southern tier, Southeast, and Central and Southern Plains during OND. A northward extension of these modestly elevated above normal precipitation chances is forecast across much of the Plains, generally consistent with dynamical model guidance and El Niño composites. As we progress deeper into the cold season, the closest analogs to the current El Niño together with dynamical model guidance suggest a rapid increase in El Niño impacts across both the West and East coasts as well as the southern tier and continued impacts northward across the central Plains. The signal is especially robust across much of California and the Southeast. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 60 percent across parts of the Southeast by NDJ and enhanced probabilities persist through JFM. Additionally the tilt toward above normal precipitation extends along almost the entire East Coast from NDJ through FMA. Meanwhile, along the West Coast, recent EP-based strong El Niños have produced copious precipitation, especially in late winter, with 2024 and 1998 being among the wettest Februaries in the last 100 years for parts of California. As such, probabilities of above normal precipitation were increased significantly to above 50 percent across much of coastal California and adjacent areas of southern Arizona from DJF through FMA, peaking in coverage during JFM. Notably some of the closest analogs to the current El Niño were wet well north along the West Coast, even encroaching much of the southern half of the Pacific Northwest. Accordingly, a tilt toward below normal precipitation often associated with El Niño was left off the coast and restricted to inland areas such as the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains during the core winter months. A slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for parts of the Great Lakes. EC is indicated farther to the south across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys during winter as natural analogs to the current El Niño are not supportive of a robust dry signal. Meanwhile across Alaska, a rapid transition from a wetter pattern in SON to a drier pattern by DJF is forecast across much of the Mainland, supported by composites from strong to very strong El Niño events, with modestly elevated chances of above normal precipitation restricted to small portions of southeastern Alaska. By later next Spring, cold season El Niño impacts are forecast to gradually ramp down with elevated above normal precipitation chances exiting much of the East Coast by AMJ and from the entirety of the southwestern CONUS by MJJ. The El Niño based dry signal over parts of mainland Alaska times out by AMJ. By next summer, trend dominates the outlooks, with the most expansive features being a tilt toward below normal precipitation across much of the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS, excluding coastal areas, and a tilt toward above normal precipitation across much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

Drought Outlook

Short CPC Drought Discussion

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the past 30 days, drought conditions remain nearly unchanged across much of the West. Across the North Central and South Central Plains, improvement was followed by worsening (1 to 3 class degradation). Over the Southeast, 1 to 3 class improvement was observed. Across the Northeast, removal was followed by development. Overall, as of August 11, 2026, about 74% of the CONUS was covered by anomalous dry conditions and nearly half of the CONUS was under moderate to exceptional (D1 to D4) drought conditions. Looking ahead from the remainder of August through the end of November, very strong El Nino conditions are favored to have an increasing impact on climate anomalies. Across the Pacific Northwest, the CPC outlooks favor warmer and dry weather patterns, with seasonably dry conditions for larger parts of the September-October-November season, drought persistence is expected and additional drought expansion across parts of the Northwest is likely. Enhanced monsoon moisture driven by warmer Pacific ocean temperatures favors widespread drought reduction across the Southwest, Great Basin region and much of the Rockies. Drought persistence is anticipated across parts of the Northern and Southern Great Plains, with some potential development due to lack of wet signals in the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks. Across the Southeast, seasonable wetness favors a gradual reduction in drought coverage, but the potential for reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, may make drought slower to ease across portions of the region. Daily seabreeze convection across Florida may also not be sufficient to completely remove drought conditions that were very intense at the onset of the summer rainy season. Across southern parts of the Northeast region, drought reduction is favored, while persistence is anticipated for the existing drought across northeastern portions of the Northeast region.
Recent D1 (moderate) drought conditions in east-central Alaska are projected to improve, whereas those in southeastern Alaska are expected to continue. Drought is neither present nor forecast for the Hawaiian Islands. Conversely, drought conditions continue to actively expand across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The anticipated strong El Nino will likely suppress convective activity, further exacerbating regional impacts.

Twelve new three-month temperature maps. Notice that these maps begin after the initial three-month map that is featured earlier in this article.

Comparing the new Outlook with the prior Outlook.

A useful way of looking at this is to compare the new set of 12 overlapping three-month maps with the prior set issued last month.

Now the Twelve New Precipitation Three-Month Maps

The major El Niño months are outlined in red. You can see that they are cooler than recently in the Southern Tier.

Comparing the new Outlook with the prior Outlook.

Similar to Temperature in terms of the organization of the twelve overlapping three-month outlooks.

As with temperature, another useful way of looking at this is to compare the new set of 12 overlapping three-month maps with the prior set.

A good approach for doing this comparison is provided in the temperature discussion.

Some key pieces of information used by NOAA are as follows. The full prior article can be accessed (HERE)

Strength Probabilities.

Current Analysis

Here is the NOAA Proprietary Model, but it is soon to be updated/replaced. (LINK).

Resources

The image showing the Early Outlook for the subsequent month and the three-month outlook can be obtained by Clicking Here.

The link for the drought outlook map and some discussions that come with the map can be found by clicking HERE.

Other Reports and Information

The Wildfire Forecast can be accessed HERE. They update on the first of the month, so what is shown is a bit out of date, but you have the link. Flooding is a risk also.

Indonesia - Current Problems Which May Be Made Worse by El Nino.

Copernicus: Indonesia’s seasonal fires intensify as boreal wildfire smoke impacts the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic
Smoke from increasing fire emissions in Indonesia from the CAMS forecast of organic matter aerosol optical depth valid for 0 UTC on 20 August. Data visualization from the CAMS Fire Emissions Watch application (source: CAMS/ECMWF).
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has been tracking significant wildfire activity across North America and northern Eurasia, sending large columns of smoke into the Arctic, as well as Southeast Asia and Europe since the start of August. CAMS is also monitoring an intense start to Indonesia’s seasonal wildfires, expected to be enhanced by El Niño.
Late July and the first weeks of August saw intense seasonal fires begin in Indonesia. Vegetation fires are common during Indonesia’s dry season between the end of July and the end of October, and 2026 is projected to be particularly intense year, as to be expected with a strong positive El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific.
Initial fires were mainly over the Island of Borneo, and across the Indonesian provinces of West and Central Kalimantan, with smoke pollution leading to school closures and more regional impacts including both Singapore and Malaysia. Indonesian authorities are using cloud seeding – spraying chemicals such as iodide and salt into clouds – to induce rain and help mitigate air pollution from fires. The region’s vast peatlands make fire management exceptionally difficult once the fires begin as they can potentially burn underground and at lower temperatures.
Wildfires continue across the Northern Hemisphere
Sustained dry conditions and heatwaves across Europe have favoured an extreme fire risk for large parts of the continent up to mid-August. Belgium had its largest wildfire since satellite measurements began burning 3,000 hectares during the course of several days from 14 August with the smoke impacts causing the German border city of Monschau to issue evacuation orders.
The scale of the fires in northwestern Europe was tamed through favourable meteorological conditions, including some precipitation, which helped fight flames and reduce fire risks for the region in recent days. Spain, France, Greece, the Balkans and parts of Germany remained heavily impacted by significant fire activity into the second half of August, including a large fire in the French region of Landes and major fire activity in Spanish regions of Huelva and Huesca.
Particularly intense fire activity has been observed in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, British Columbia and Canada’s Northwest Territories, where fires have continued to burn at some of the highest rates seen in recent decades. In the United States, wildfires in July and August saw the highest year-to-date emissions for Washington and Oregon, while Utah saw its highest fire emissions since at least 2003, driven by wildfires in June, July and August. The GFAS dataset, produced by CAMS, places 2026 slightly above average for the time of year for the United States as a whole.
Mark Parrington, a Senior Scientist at ECMWF and working for CAMS, said: “Based on our years of monitoring during the summer months, we expect to see continuation of wildfire emissions around the Northern Hemisphere through to the end of August. However, for some regions experiencing large-scale and persistent fires, such as the Siberian Arctic, the peak emissions have been occurring slightly later than usual and at a time where the number of fires might be expected to decrease. For Indonesia, seasonal fire emissions and regional haze are already enhanced, consistent with previous El Niño years, and we will be monitoring the situation very closely to understand how the fires and air quality impacts are changing.”
Extreme wildfires impact northern regions of Russia
In northern Russia, wildfires in Yamal-Nenets, Krasnoyarsk and parts of Sakha Republic have generated substantial emissions, with Yamal-Nenets recording its highest daily emissions on record during August. Despite this activity, and while these northern regions experienced some of their highest fire emissions since 2003, Russia as a whole has experienced below average emissions for this time of the year, and far below the most catastrophic seasons, such as 2012 and 2021.
Charts of cumulative daily total estimated wildfire emissions from high northern latitudes (60-66.6 N) and the Arctic Circle (66.6-90 N) for 2003 to 2026 (source: CAMS/ECMWF).
Smoke from both the North American and Russian fires has been transported around large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including across the Arctic. CAMS monitoring indicates that fire emissions at high northern latitudes and within the Arctic Circle are currently above average, making 2026 one of the most active recent years for Arctic wildfire emissions.
While emissions have risen sharply in several fire-effected regions in recent weeks, lower than average emissions from seasonal biomass burning across tropical Africa mean that the year-to-date global total is still currently at lowest values in the 24 years of the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) dataset. The GFAS dataset, and others, indicate that reduced seasonal fires in tropical Africa is a major contributing factor to the general decrease in year-to-date global emissions.
CAMS uses its Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) to provide near real-time monitoring of wildfire emissions worldwide. GFAS uses satellite observations of Fire Radiative Power to estimate emissions from wildfire and biomass burning and feeds these emissions into ECMWF atmospheric forecasts. This enables CAMS to track the transport of smoke and forecast air quality impacts up to five days in advance. The freely available data supports researchers, policymakers, emergency responders and the public in understanding and responding to wildfire events around the world.
-ENDS-
More information on Copernicus: www.copernicus.eu
The ECMWF website can be found at
https://www.ecmwf.int/

I hope you found this article interesting and useful

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21 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: A Rally, With Plenty of Problems Left

Gary Hall — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 20:11:54 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

Summary Of the Markets this Week:

source: google finance

Baker Hughes Rig Count: down 5 to 588 rigs

U.S. Rig Count is down 5 from last week to 588 with oil rigs down 3 to 452, gas rigs down 1 to 127 and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 9.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Friday brought some relief to a stock market that had taken a beating earlier in the week. The bond market was still unsettled, but the selling pressure eased enough for buyers to step back in. The Treasury’s plan to increase purchases of longer-term bonds helped, even if it hardly solved the bigger problems facing the market.

Bitcoin was another bright spot. It climbed above $77,000 and pulled crypto-related stocks higher with it. Gold had a strong day, too. Gold miners moved up as the metal traded above $4,600 an ounce and briefly pushed past $4,690.

Some stocks had their own stories. Ross Stores was one of the standouts after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and raising its forecast. Boston Beer went the other way after announcing that its CFO was leaving. Oil prices were choppy as traders kept a close eye on Middle East tensions and risks to supply.

So, yes, it was a relief rally. But that doesn’t mean the market suddenly feels comfortable again. The 10-year Treasury yield finished around 4.73%, while the 30-year remained above 5.2%. Oil is still expensive, geopolitics remain a headache, and investors have plenty of earnings to get through.

Friday was a good day for stocks. Whether it has legs is the real question for next week.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No important economic releases today.

Media Financial News and Opinion Summary:

Oilprice and The Economic Times concentrated on crude oil as it continues to trade at elevated levels, with Brent holding firm above $93 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate tracking past $87. Geopolitical friction continues to squeeze global logistics. The broader conflict, including a wave of piracy off the coast of Yemen, has tightened shadow-fleet tanker capacity and pushed shipping costs higher. For import-dependent economies like India, those sustained energy prices are keeping domestic inflation expectations high and complicating central bank policies.

ZeroHedge takes a much more critical stance on Washington’s recent fiscal maneuvers. Analysts there view the Treasury’s aggressive bond buyback strategy as a temporary bandage on a structural debt burden now topping $40 trillion. They warn that artificially suppressing yields without addressing massive deficit spending will ultimately pressure the U.S. dollar and fuel long-term price pressures.

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20 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Treasury Fix Fades as Yields, Oil and Walmart Hit Wall Street

Gary Hall — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:10:39 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

The Treasury’s attempt to calm the bond market lasted one day. By Thursday, yields were climbing. The 10-year reached 4.70%, while the 30-year touched 5.24%. With U.S. debt now above $40 trillion, investors are clearly questioning whether larger Treasury buybacks can do much to ease the pressure from all that supply.

Stocks paid the price. The Dow and the S&P 500 closing at their session lows. The Nasdaq dropped; higher yields put another dent in technology shares.

Moderna was one of the day’s biggest losers, giving back a large part of Wednesday’s 177% surge on its melanoma vaccine news. Alibaba also fell after quarterly profit plunged 75% as the company continues spending heavily on AI infrastructure.

Then there was Walmart. The stock sank about 9% after the retailer missed quarterly comparable-sales expectations, adding another warning sign for the consumer. Oil didn’t help. Crude moved higher as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz kept inflation concerns alive.

Higher yields, expensive oil and a weaker consumer made for a rough combination. Wednesday’s Treasury-driven relief is already looking like a temporary reprieve.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production (IP) was up 1.1% year-over-year (YoY) in July 2026, marginally down from the 1.3@ YoY last month. Component manufacturing was up 1.3% YoY (down from 1.6% YoY last month). Component mining was up 1.0% YoY (up from 0.7% YoY last month). Component utilities was up 0.7% YoY (little change from last month’s 0.8% YoY last month. There is a disconnect between manufacturing surveys and hard data - one or the other or both are not reporting reality.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey rose from 41.4 in July to 47.4 in August 2026, its highest reading since April 2021. Nearly 57% of the firms reported increases in activity. The difference between manufacturing hard data and the Fed regional surveys is large. I am looking but yet cannot pinpoint an explanation.

Cotality’s Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) in June 2026 increased by 1.5% YoY. This is the fourth consecutive month of growing annual gains and the highest growth rate since late 2025. This points to rents slowly increasing rather than broadly accelerating.

In the week ending August 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 204,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 199,000 to 199,750. These levels are consistent with an expanding economy.

Media Financial News and Opinion Summary:

Coverage from The Wall Street Journal and CNBC focused on long-term government debt after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to at least double long-end bond buybacks to $4 billion per issue. While the initial announcement sparked a relief rally, government bonds faced renewed selling pressure shortly after as 30-year yields pushed up toward 5.24%.

Oilprice and the Economic Times track West Texas Intermediate crude trading above $86 a barrel, with Brent crude holding firm past $91.

ZeroHedge takes a far more critical view of the administration’s fiscal steps. Reporting frames the expanded bond buyback program as a temporary fix that fails to address structural deficit spending. Their opinion is that forced liquidity measures risk eroding foreign appetite for U.S. debt and putting sustained pressure on the dollar.

Weather Outlook for the United States and the World

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19 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Treasury Throws Wall Street a Lifeline

Gary Hall — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 20:15:06 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

The primary driver behind today's trading action was a market rebound triggered by a bond-yield relief rally, amplified by select corporate catalysts. The announcement that the Treasury would double its long-term bond buybacks knocked its yields lower and gave stocks some room to breathe. The 10-year settled around 4.65% after being near 4.70% earlier. That was enough to change the tone after three straight losing sessions. The Canadian tariff delay helped, too. Although I think this was an artificial boost like a classic late-night plot twist from the White House.

Estée Lauder jumped about 17% after reporting stronger results and raising its profit outlook. Target gained nearly 6% after raising its annual sales forecast. Toll Brothers climbed about 7%. Moderna gained after the trial news gave the ticker a notable bump when its cancer vaccine trial with Merck hit its key targets.

Oracle fell as investors continued to weigh concerns over OpenAI’s growth and the cost of financing its AI expansion. Marvell jumping on its Google chip deal.

I wouldn’t call Wednesday a broad turnaround. The Treasury took some pressure off the bond market, and a handful of stocks delivered huge moves. That was enough to get some buyers back in.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Housing units authorized by building permits in July 2026 are up 3.1% year-over-year (YoY). Housing starts were down 13.5% YoY. Housing completions were down 16.8% YoY. The bottom line is that the levels of permits, starts, and completions are lower than the levels 5 years ago - all while new homes for sale remain at levels not seen since just before the Great Recession.

Import prices in July 2026 were 5.9% YoY - down from last month’s 6.7% YoY. Export prices were 8.2% YoY - down from last month’s 10.0%. The reasons for the declines can be considered mathematical gymnastics of many data points with the strengthening of the dollar one of the main reasons for lower import inflation. Export inflation was mostly influenced by export of oil products which declined in price relative to the previous month [note that export prices other than petroleum was essentially flat this month].

Pending home sales declined 2.2% YoY, and was lowest level since January 2026. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun stated: “The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings.”

The Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee for July 28–29, 2026 shows:

Some participants pointed to continued price increases in core services excluding housing. Some participants noted inflation remained elevated even after removing categories most directly affected by tariffs and energy. Most participants expect inflation to decline later this year with the possibility that persistent inflation could begin influencing wage demands and business pricing decisions.
Some Fed officials think the massive investment in AI infrastructure is already pushing aggregate demand higher, creating inflationary pressure but eventually becoming disinflationary as it produces productivity gains
The participants generally described employment conditions as stable, with unemployment near estimates of its longer-run level. However, rising demand from the AI buildout, tightness in some skilled-labor markets, and that years of above-target inflation are beginning to influence wage levels.
The participants believe rising asset prices can support consumption among households that own stocks and other financial assets. In contrast, households that depend primarily on wages feel the effect of higher food, housing, energy and other living costs much more directly.
Participants were concerned that high AI valuations assume extremely strong future earnings. If those expectations change, there could be contagion beyond the AI sector.
Participants warned that another escalation in the Middle East could produce additional supply-chain problems and renewed energy inflation.

Media Financial News and Opinion Summary:

Reporting by the Wall Street Journal and CNBC highlighted a surprise decision by the Treasury Department to double its long-term debt buyback operations. That single announcement cooled off a brutal, multi-week bond selloff that had pushed global yields toward multi-decade highs, giving equities an immediate green light to bounce back.

Oilprice and the Economic Times reported on crude oil continuing its steady climb. Brent pushed past $91 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate above $85. Lower bond yields also gave gold a boost.

ZeroHedge framed the Treasury’s intervention as an attempt to artificially cap soaring long-end borrowing costs while weakening the U.S. dollar.

Weather Outlook for the United States and the World

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18 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Oil Squeeze and Spiking Yields Rattle Global Markets

Gary Hall — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 20:07:38 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Tuesday was ugly on Wall Street. High oil, spiking yields, and a brutal session for tech. Markets closed down with the Nasdaq leading the parade. The 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.327%, a peak we haven’t seen since back in 2007, while 10-year yields held right around 4.71%. Over in commodities, Brent crude pushed past $90 a barrel as U.S.-Iran deal hopes faded. That double hit revived inflation anxiety fast, basically killing any near-term hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Semiconductors took the worst of it. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dumped 5.4%, wiping clean Monday’s rally in memory chips. Traders locked in profits across the board, leaving names like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA, Nasdaq 100), Micron (NASDAQ: MU, Nasdaq 100), and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO, Nasdaq 100)under real pressure while the market re-calculated what it costs to borrow money for AI infrastructure.

A few stocks managed to fight the trend. Home Depot pulled out a gain after topping sales and earnings estimates despite the slow housing market. Alibaba, (BABA, NYSE), caught a bid in Asia thanks to Alipay dropping a new agentic commerce platform. Meanwhile, an SEC filing showed Advanced Micro Devices Inc., (AMD, Nasdaq) buying fresh equity stakes in cloud and satellite firms, clearly trying to secure its supply chain links.

The VIX ticked higher as traders bought up options hedges. Bottom line: Tuesday wasn’t about one bad earnings print; it was expensive capital hitting high-growth valuations.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Steven Hansen is performing a civic function day. He will review the economic releases for housing starts, import/export prices, industrial production, and pending home sales in tomorrow’s newsletter.

Media Financial News and Opinion Summary:

Rising oil prices and a spike in bond yields caused significant declines in tech stocks, sending stocks tumbling Tuesday, hitting high-growth tech hardest. Reuters and Bloomberg macro desks reported that stalled Strait of Hormuz negotiations pushed Brent crude past $90, while a fixed-income sell-off drove the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.337%, its highest mark since 2007. Wall Street Journal and CNBC market reporting noted that the sudden combination killed expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, sending the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 5.4% as traders reconsidered the cost of funding AI data centers. Nvidia, Micron, and Broadcom led the tech decline, while the VIX ticked higher on increased options hedging.

A parallel crunch in middle distillates is worsening the outlook. Refining disruptions in Russia and the Middle East are drawing down global diesel stockpiles ahead of peak winter demand. Bank of America’s latest survey data shows portfolio managers abandoning expectations for a quick drop in rates or crude, pushing their year-end oil price assumptions upward.

In Asian markets, Y Combinator offloaded a portion of its equity in Groww via an open-market transaction, pulling in roughly ₹1,435 crore. Amazon India posted 15% top-line growth while trimming operational losses. On the geopolitical front, Indian ministers Jaishankar, Sitharaman, and Goyal landed in Singapore to anchor bilateral supply chain agreements.

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17 August 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Morning Rally Fails, Tech Leads Market Slip

Gary Hall — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 20:18:24 GMT

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

source: google finance

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

It was a weak start for the market today. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 initially pushed higher, but both quickly reversed as selling picked up. The Dow was under pressure from the opening bell, and the weakness spread as the morning progressed.

The early afternoon selling finally eased and the three indexes settled into a narrow range near their session lows. The market made another attempt to recover in the late session , but it failed to hold. Selling returned in the final hours, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lower and leaving all three major indexes near their lows at the close.

Major Market Movers Today

Read the August 2026 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Strengthening But So Is Inflation

Today’s Economic Analysis by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose five points to 20.6, its highest reading in more than four years. Positive performance from new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders. I keep pointing out that hard data has yet to correlate to the various Fed manufacturing surveys - but as much as I am not a fan of surveys, yah gotta think there may be a problem with the hard data gathering.

Media Financial News and Opinion Summary:

Coverage by CNBC and the Wall Street Journal focused on the major stock indexes treading water ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve minutes and key retail sales data. They believe broad market sentiment remains caught between optimism over resilient consumer spending and anxiety that interest rates will stay higher for longer than Wall Street previously priced in.

Oilprice and The Economic Times focused on energy commodities as crude oil prices. They pointed out that tight supply balances and shipping bottlenecks continue to support crude prices around $75 to $80 a barrel. Softer industrial activity in Asia weigh on the demand outlook.

ZeroHedge highlighted growing structural vulnerabilities, pointing to rising credit card delinquencies and expanding government deficit spending. Commentary emphasized a widening gap between top-line market performance and underlying consumer stress.

Weather Outlook for the United States and the World

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You Can Stop Buying Steak. You Can't Stop Buying Food.

Steven Hansen — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 11:19:12 GMT

Those of you who have followed me over the last 15+ years know I consider food inflation one of the leading impacts on the middle class. You can substitute hamburger for steak - but one cannot survive without food.

Food prices (red line) have risen faster than overall CPI (blue line) over the last 6 years, especially since 2020.

Food prices have outpaced overall CPI inflation, rising over 25% over pre-pandemic levels.

Beginning with COVID, food prices surged, peaking at 13% year-over-year. After 2023 a moderation phase followed, but food prices continued to outpace overall CPI. This left grocery costs sitting at an increase of 35% above 2019 levels.

You can raise borrowing costs to cool demand for durable goods, but demand for food remains inelastic.

Main Drivers of Higher Food Inflation

While broader macroeconomic levers like central bank interest rate hikes can slow consumer demand for durable goods, but demand for food remains strictly inelastic. When supply falls below demand, prices rise. Conversely, when supply exceeds demand, prices fall. Unfortunately for consumers, recently many food items have a supply shortage.

The Environment

Agriculture is facing a growing water problem in the Colorado River Basin. As water supplies decline, agriculture is being asked to absorb an increasing share of the reductions. Farming is one of the largest users of the basin’s water. Reducing agricultural water means reducing irrigated acreage, changing crops, or shifting production to other regions. Overall, this affects not only farmers and rural communities, but also the price, availability, and geographic distribution of U.S. food production.

Severe droughts paired with elevated feed costs forced livestock producers to cull herds, shrinking the U.S. cattle supply to its lowest level in decades. Not only have beef prices increased, but the U.S. is now a major beef importer and, by volume, the world’s second-largest beef importer.

Recent freezes and droughts in critical produce regions like Florida, California, and Mexico have triggered sharp spikes in items like tomatoes, lettuce, and citrus fruits.

Outbreaks like Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have repeatedly decimated poultry populations, causing supply shortages in egg and poultry markets.

Growing Food Is Not Free

Agricultural supply chains operate on expedited delivery from farm to consumer. Fertilizer and diesel prices spiked significantly with the closure of the Straights of Hormuz, international trade frictions, and broader energy disruptions. Crop production and livestock growth take several months to several years to be ready to market. Cost shocks incurred during growing seasons continue to filter into grocery prices long after spot energy markets have normalized.

Unlike durable goods that can sit in warehouses until freight rates moderate, perishable food must move immediately, forcing producers and distributors to pay peak logistics rates and pass those costs directly downstream.

the bottom line ________________

Consumers face food prices daily. Lower- and middle-income households spend a higher percentage of their disposable income on groceries, and believe the government’s inflation numbers are bullshit.

The CPI substantially understates the inflation experienced by lower- and middle-income households. The CPI is currently built with food weighing in at 13.5% of the index. The average person is currently spending $381 per month on food. The median individual Social Security benefit is around $1,500 per month. In this scenario, a person on Social Security is likely spending 25% of their income on food.

For the upper strata, food inflation is little unnoticed. There are very few people seeing the inflation that the CPI advertises.

No solution for food inflation is simple. The government is increasing agricultural imports as the quickest path to slowing food inflation.

The problem is that food prices are determined by weather, land/water availability, livestock cycles, labor costs, transportation, energy, and global commodity markets. These are factors that government policy can influence but cannot effectively control.

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Saturday Newsletter: Monthly ENSO Status Update, Four-Week Weather Outlook, Plus Much More

Sat, 15 Aug 2026 11:00:17 GMT

As usual, we begin with important weather news when it is available.

Remember that El Niño is when the oceans release heat to the atmosphere because the Indo-Pacific warm pool, which becomes perhaps a foot or more elevated during La Niña, spreads out so the warm water covers a larger part of the Pacific Ocean. The resulting evaporation transfers heat to the water vapor, which transports heat to land due to the prevailing Westerlies. It is a fraction of a degree (C). Small changes can have a big impact.

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Now to the main topic of this article.

Part I. Here is the Official Release

The second paragraph in the CPC discussion is what is important:

The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end f the year. During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value). With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, but they are not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.

Here is what was said last month.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2 , forecasts El Niño to intensify through 2026. Alongside model forecasts, a strong coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation across the Pacific contributes to very high confidence that El Niño will continue through early 2027. There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.

81% chance of strong or very strong is different from a 69% chance of record-breaking, which is the new forecast. At Bell Labs, I took one course in technical writing where I learned that engineers and scientists are not very good at communicating.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities:

There is not much doubt that we are in El Niño conditions and they will last into next Spring.

The probabilities are for three-month periods, e.g. JAS stands for July/August/September. It may not be scientific, but I pay attention to the middle month in these three-month probability assessments. El Niño is here. Its impact in the summer is subtle at best but we are coming to the end of summer.

Strength Probabilities.

Current Analysis

Those probabilities are unreal. It is pretty ominous for September through January. Being as strong as indicated for September, I believe, is unusual.

I think the switchover to the modified index should have taken place during ENSO Neutral. I think they are more careful with sports statistics than weather statistics.

Last Month Analysis.

Slightly less dramatic

It is important to remember that:

A. Impacts are not always correlated with the Niño 3.4 levels (which, when averaged over time, become ONI readings).

B. Impacts will vary worldwide.

Part II. Additional information we might want to look at.

There is much information we might want to look at, but these are a small number of graphics that I find especially useful.

The above is pretty scary. I do not trust this new index, so I need to say that. But if you assume it is correct, that graphic is scary. The median is bad enough. The range is unbelievable. That is why I think the new index is “NOT VALID”. But I believe it is safe to say that this will be a very strong El Niño and potentially record-breaking.

Here is the NOAA Proprietary Model, but it is soon to be updated/replaced.

It is also based on the new index, but it seems more reasonable (LINK). So one wonders why the two sets of forecast data are so different.

It is now showing the Niño 3.4 Index over 2.0C and closer to 2.5. The red lines are older runs of the model. The spread among model runs is tight, possibly adding confidence to the results. It is not the only tool NOAA/CPC uses.

Looking at other information.

The view below is from the surface down. ENSO (and the interaction with the atmosphere) is determined at the surface, but the subsurface is a clue to the future. We are mostly interested in 170W to 120W. You can see the anomalies at the surface, but these will soon be replaced by water from below for a number of reasons. Usually, the discussion is in terms of anomalies, i.e., changes from normal. But absolute values are also important. ENSO is defined in terms of sea surface temperature anomalies and the impact on the atmosphere.

Current

There is no more backup warm water, but the warm pool is really intense and has not been diluted by any cool current. Even where it reaches the surface, it is very impressive. Normally, we measure El Niño between 120W to 170W +- five degrees from the Equator. What is shown is the situation along the Equator from the surface down. Temperature anomalies are shown, and they vary by date.

Prior Month

The current image shows the warm anomaly moving to the east where it bumps up against Ecuador. It stopped moving east. It has not moved west and seems not to be impacted by the major cold currents that flow north off the west coast of South America.

(SOURCE) I do not believe the above was impacted by the change in the NINO/ONI indices. You can clearly see the El Niño, which is in its early stage of development. You also see warm water off Southern California and Baja California. The Japanese have done research on this, but it is not usually something that NOAA discusses. Notice the warm water from north of Japan to the east. One can look at the Northern Pacific as a circular flow of water, but we do not see the full loop here (fluids in a container can not flow in one direction without a return path which can be at the surface or below the surface). Look at the Mediterranean.

Here, we integrate the anomalies from 300 meters deep to the surface. Again, you can see the La Niña period and the change as warm anomalies have developed. The graphic covers from the Date Line (180W) to 100W, but we are most interested in 170W to 120W, which is close enough, sort of. Have we peaked? I guess not.

Again, we care about two things:

A. The temperature anomaly at the surface and

B. Does the atmosphere react to this and change the location of the Walker circulation?

The overall warming of the Pacific has complicated the matter. Are our criteria still valid?

Looking at Kelvin Waves

It has not changed much, but the impact of this most recent Kelvin Wave is stronger than I had anticipated.

OLR Analysis

The pattern of few clouds and many clouds is getting well defined. It is not exactly the same as SOI analysis (LINK), but in the Hovmöller diagram, you can see that clouds have formed where you expect them to form during El Niño. It is a lot clearer this week.

Last Week

Another way of looking at things.

This Week

last week

Prior Week

This Hovmöller diagram shows that the water temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 measurement area has risen to 1.0C+. NOAA says it is 1.4C. I am not so sure of that.

So you can clearly see the week-to-week change. The surface is warmer.

Part III. Current Weather Update

Here is the current weather hazards warning. (SOURCE)

Unfortunately, the heat is predicted to last even longer than shown here.

Let us look at precipitation.

Here is the current forecast for five days of precipitation.

You can see the moisture moving up from Mexico. It has shifted from Arizona to New Mexico. It is not that impressive. The Great Lakes look impressive. The lack of precipitation for Texas may be important.

Below are the links to update and expand the information and have it presented as an animation.

Days 1 - 7 LINK, Day 1 - 7 Precipitation Animation (Click), Day 3 - 7 Minimum Temperature Animation (Click), Day 3- 7 Maximum Temperature (LINK)

Rest of the month

Days 6 - 10 (LINK)

That is a lot different than what was forecast a week ago but we are talking about the forecast for a week later.

The probabilities are fairly muted except for a small part of SE Texas

Days 8 - 14 (LINK)

The intense heat is shifting. I refer readers to the warning at the beginning of this article. Not much indication of colder air arriving from Canada other than New England to some extent.

Two wet areas and two dry areas.

Weeks 3 - 4 (LINK)

The Northeast quadrant would appear to have equal chances, which means a lot cooler. Some forecasters are more bullish on cold air intrusion in this area.

If you believe this graphic, the Monsoon arrives in early September. That is possible, but usually a late pattern looks different because of the location of the Four Corners High in September. But tropical activity might be involved.

Tropical Forecast

I do not see anything of great interest for CONUS other than the predicted Southern Tier heat. Central America might have a big problem.

Moisture in the Atmosphere

I thought it would be useful to take a look at the situation with Atmospheric Rivers.

(LINK to advance in time)

This is the current situation of atmospheric rivers (LINK). Atmospheric Rivers are parts of the atmosphere that are conveying an unusual amount of water. They tend to be less important in the summer. This is just a West Coast view, and only Alaska would seem to be impacted over the next several days because of the high pressure shown.

Part IV: The Latest Copernicus Climate Change Report.

Bonn, 07/08/2026
EMBARGOED UNTIL 04:00 AM CEST,
August 10^th 2026 (It is now past August 10, 2026 so I can publish it)
Copernicus: Highest July global ocean surface temperatures as exceptionally hot, dry conditions fuel wildfires in Europe
Find all additional resources here:
https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/c3sci/bulletin/202607/press_release/
(Left) Anomalies and extremes in surface air temperature in June–July 2026. Colour categories refer to the percentiles of the temperature distributions for the 1991–2020 reference period. The “coolest” and “warmest” categories identify areas where temperatures were the lowest or highest for June–July during 1979–2026.
(Right) Average June–July surface air temperature anomalies for western Europe (11°W–15°E, 37°–55°N). Anomalies are relative to the June–July average for the 1991-2020 period.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
In July 2026, prolonged hot and dry conditions in western Europe led to the spread and intensification of extreme wildfires. The month also saw the highest sea surface temperature (SST) ever recorded for July across the extra-polar oceans, partly fuelled by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, as reported by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
July saw exceptionally high temperatures for the month across a large portion of the tropical Pacific, an area where El Niño conditions are present and forecast to further strengthen in the coming months. Around Europe, record high SSTs along the Atlantic and western Mediterranean were associated with widespread strong or severe marine heatwaves, affecting coastal communities and ecosystems.
Figure 2. Daily sea surface temperature (°C) averaged over the extra–polar global ocean (60°S–60°N) for 2023 (yellow), 2024 (orange), 2025 (red) and 2026 (dark red). All other years between 1979 and 2022 are shown with grey lines. The daily average for the 1991–2020 reference period is shown with a dashed grey line.
Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
Western Europe experienced its hottest June-July period on record and July saw the third and fourth heatwaves since May, marking an exceptional run of extreme heat this summer. Much of the region also saw the widespread dryness observed in May and June persist and intensify, with exceptionally low rainfall and/or soil moisture reported for France, Spain, parts of Germany and the UK. Across the dry regions, river flows were much lower than average or exceptionally low, with the Seine, Rhine and Danube particularly affected, impacting water supply, irrigation and energy production in several countries.
(Left) Anomalies and extremes in surface soil moisture for July 2026. The “driest” and “wettest” categories identify areas where soil moisture was the lowest or highest for July during 1979–2026. The other categories describe how soil moisture compares to the July distribution during the 1991–2020 reference period. Data: ERA5-Land.
(Right) Anomalies and extremes in monthly average river flow in July 2026. The “lowest” and “highest” categories identify areas where river flow was the lowest or highest for July during 1992–2026. The other categories describe how river flow compares to the July distribution during the 1992–2020 reference period. Only rivers with drainage areas greater than 1000 km² are shown.
Data source: EFAS. Credit: CEMS/C3S/ECMWF.
Globally, the month was the joint second warmest July on record, with an average surface air temperature 1.47°C hotter than the estimated pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900 average).
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, commented: “July 2026 was the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in western Europe, bringing the combined temperature for June and July to a new record for the region. Persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over western Europe, the extreme temperatures also amplified widespread drought. As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to build more readily. This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another.”
Laurence Rouil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at ECMWF, added: “Last month saw exceptional wildfire activity across western Europe, in terms of the area burnt and emissions. Climate change is increasingly bringing the kinds of hot and dry conditions that favour large, high-intensity wildfires in southern Europe while extending the fire season northwards. Larger fires produce more smoke and inject it higher into the atmosphere, meaning it can travel further and impact air quality not only locally, but across the wider region. Countries that experience relatively few wildfires may be increasingly impacted by long range transport of smoke, even if they are thousands of kilometres away.”
July 2026 – Surface air temperature and sea surface temperatures highlights
Global surface air temperature
July 2026 was the joint-second warmest July* globally in the ERA5 dataset, tied with July 2024 and behind the record set in July 2023.
The average surface air temperature for the month was 16.90°C, 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 average for July and 1.47°C above the estimated pre-industrial 1850-1900 average.
Europe surface air temperature
The average temperature over European land in July 2026 was the eleventh-highest on record for the month, at 20.49°C, 0.66°C above the 1991-2020 average for the month.
This relatively low ranking can be explained by a sharp west–east contrast in temperature anomalies. Temperatures were much higher than average in western Europe (particularly in France, Spain, England and Ireland) but lower than average across much of eastern Europe and Scandinavia.
Western Europe experienced its third and fourth heatwaves since May. Although these were less intense than the heatwaves in June, the overall sequence of heatwaves since May remains exceptional for the region.
The average temperature for June–July for western Europe was the highest on record, at 21.62°C or 2.79°C above average, surpassing the previous record from 2022 and reflecting the exceptional persistence of heat since the beginning of summer.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
The average SST for the extra-polar ocean (60°S–60°N) in July 2026 was the highest on record for the month, at 20.96°C, surpassing the previous July record of 20.89°C, which was set in 2023.
SSTs remained at exceptionally high levels across a large portion of the tropical Pacific, an areawhere current El Niño conditions are forecast to further strengthen in the coming months.
Around Europe, SSTs reached record highs for July along the Atlantic coast and western Mediterranean, associated with widespread strong or severe marine heatwave conditions.
July 2026 – Hydrological variables highlights
Europe: Areas with drier-than-average conditions
In July 2026, drier-than average conditions observed in June and partly in May persisted and intensified in much of western Europe and large regions of central Europe, particularly in parts of the Iberian Peninsula, France, Germany, Austria, and Hungary. The UK, Ireland, part of Iceland and the Benelux region (Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg) also saw exceptionally dry conditions in July. National agencies reported exceptional to record deficits for precipitation and/or soil moisture for France, Spain, parts of Germany and the UK.
Surface soil moisture levels in western Europe in July 2026 were significantly lower than those in July 2022, the last summer with severe drought across western Europe.
The dry conditions coincided with widespread heatwave conditions across much of western Europe and were conducive to exceptional wildfire activity in western Europe, in terms of burnt area and emissions.
Other drier-than-average regions included parts of southern Scandinavia and a large area to the east of the Caspian Sea.
River flows were much lower than average, and in some areas exceptionally low, across much of the dry regions, with the Seine, Rhine and Danube particularly affected. The low flows increased pressure on water supply and irrigation, aquatic ecosystems, river transport and energy production in several countries.
Europe: Areas with wetter-than-average conditions
Conversely, wetter-than-average conditions were recorded in the Baltic States and Finland, inner Türkiye, Greece, eastern Ukraine and large parts of western Russia, with localised flooding and associated damage.
Above-average river flow was spatially limited and occurred in scattered areas of northeastern and southern Europe.
Extratropical regions outside Europe
Outside Europe, parts of northern Canada, central USA, the Maghreb, part of the Horn of Africa, Siberia, south-central Asia, parts of inner China, parts of Argentina, Uruguay and Bolivia were drier than average.
Parts of the eastern USA and northern Mexico, Alaska and Canada, eastern Russia, Afghanistan, the northern Indian subcontinent, eastern China and Japan, Chile and southern Brazil were wetter than average, with flooding reported, among other regions, in the USA, Chile, Brazil, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, and Taiwan.
July 2026 – Sea ice highlights
In July 2026, Arctic sea ice extent ranked sixth lowest for the month, with particularly low sea ice cover in the northern Barents Sea around Svalbard and Franz Josef Land.
Antarctic sea ice extent ranked fifth lowest for July, with below-average sea ice cover in most ocean sectors except the Amundsen Sea.
Footnotes
* July 2026 was marginally cooler than July 2024, by only 0.01°C. Given this small difference, the two months are considered the joint-second warmest Julys on record.
- End –

I hope you found this article interesting and useful.

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Seeking greener grass

Does it still pay to switch jobs? The financial payoff is real, but lately it comes at a higher cost. In today’s low-hire, low-fire labor market, the payoff increasingly depends on industry, timing, and the costs of finding the right opportunity. Get all the data in this week’s Main Street Macro.

Topcoding and Measuring Wage Growth

In this article, we examine how the shift from fixed to dynamic topcoding in the Current Population Survey in April 2023 affected measures of wage growth and explore how measures of growth based on median versus average wages can lead to different conclusions about how workers are faring.

Examining State and Local Affordable Housing Policy and Programs

Communities around the nation are grappling with a shortage of affordable housing. In this article, the second in a two-part series, we highlight key ideas from a recent roundtable the New York Fed held with Second District policymakers, bankers, and developers. The discussion centered on factors that are limiting the supply of affordable housing and the possibility that creative financing could spur new affordable developments.

How Aging Americans Are Navigating (and Shaping) the Housing Market

As the 64 million baby boomers continue to age, what factors are driving decisions to age in place? Health care needs, costs, and limited options all create uncertainty.

The Bank of North America

While Alexander Hamilton ultimately received much of the credit for righting the nation’s finances, he viewed Robert Morris’ brainchild, the Bank of North America, as a pivotal step along that journey. The Bank of North America was chartered by the Confederation Congress in late 1781 and opened for business in Philadelphia in 1782.

Does the Equity Term Structure Respond to Monetary Policy Shocks?

Research has documented the effects of Fed interest rate surprises on stock markets. Although stock markets provide valuable information about the investor risk premium and dividend growth expectations, researchers have only recently developed tools to estimate the term structure of equity risk premia and dividend growth expectations across a broad range of maturities. In this post, the authors investigate how monetary policy shocks impact short- and long-term estimates of risk premia and growth expectations.

Innovating to Increase Housing Supply and Affordability

New York State, like much of the country, is grappling with producing more housing units—including those serving low- and moderate-income residents. The New York Fed and NYU’s Furman Center recently convened a series of roundtables with builders, developers, and housing experts to discuss affordable housing challenges and solutions. This article, the first in a two-part series on the issue, reflects the discussion, with a focus on factors that make housing more expensive to build and ideas to reduce costs and increase production.

How Distressed Are Consumers? Reconciling Diverging Credit Card Delinquency Measures

Total debt balances declined slightly in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. However, the percentage of credit card balances 90+ days delinquent rose from 7.6 percent to 12.8 percent between 2022 and 2026. The authors use data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel to better understand the state of the consumer and to explain the difference between two measures of delinquency.

When Oil Prices Drop, Why Do Gasoline Prices Stay Elevated?

When crude oil prices surge and then drop, gasoline prices “rise like a rocket but fall like a feather.” This analysis looks at some of the reasons why this occurs.

Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond correlation recently flipped, suggesting that the perceived source of risk to the economy has shifted towards supply shocks. Other financial correlations, such as the stock-oil correlation, also changed accordingly and thus agree with this interpretation. In line with this evidence, financial market pricing now indicates that elevated oil prices and potential inflation are prominent sources of risk.

Stripping STRIPs Trading Activity

Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS) are zero-coupon securities created from the separation of cash flows on a Treasury security into the underlying coupon and principal components. In March 2020, FINRA began reporting aggregate trading volume for Treasuries; however, this did not include STRIPS. The authors provide the first detailed analysis of STRIPS trading activity using FINRA’s Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) transactions data.