Schedule for Week of August 30, 2026

The key report this coming week is the August employment report.

----- Monday, August 31st -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for a decrease to 57.0 from 57.6 in July.

----- Tuesday, September 1st -----

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.3, down from 55.6 in July.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS.

All day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 16.4 million SAAR from 16.3 million in July.

----- Wednesday, September 2nd -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 45,000 payroll jobs added in August, up from 44,000 added in July.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, September 3rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 205 thousand from 203 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for July from the Census Bureau. The U.S. trade deficit was $73.3 billion in June.

10:00 AM ET: the ISM Services Index forAugust.

----- Friday, September 4th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. There were 23,000 jobs lost in July, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Review of Week of August 23, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in June

• New Home Sales Decrease to 607,000 Annual Rate in July

• When will the Existing Home Sales Slump End?

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in July

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.1% Below 2022 Peak

Other economic data:

The data last week was mixed,

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $83 per barrel as of this writing, up about 28% since the start of the war (down from recent peak). The national average gasoline price is $4.07 per gallon, up 38% since the end of February, but down from the war peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased only slightly — from 5 to 4 — in August.

This was below the consensus estimate for a reading of 7.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

This was down year-over-year and this index remains historically weak.

• Durable Goods Orders for July.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up four of the last five months, increased $3.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $339.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced

This was the consensus is for a 0.7% increase in durable goods.

• Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

This was at the consensus is for a 1.5% annualized increase in Q2.

• Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026.

Personal income increased $115.1 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $125.9 billion (0.5 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $36.3 billion (0.2 percent).

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for July increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago.

Personal income was above consensus for a 0.3% increase. Spending was at consensus. Inflation was above consensus.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 206,000 to 207,000.

This was lower than expected.

• Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August.

The Chicago Business Barometer™ dropped 10.5 points to 47.1 in August. The Barometer is below the neutral 50 level for the first time since April, and at its lowest since December.

This was well below the consensus or a decrease to 57.0 from 57.6.

• Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National) for March 2026

The preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1 percent), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The preliminary benchmark revision for total private employment was -178,000 (-0.1 percent).

This is a small downward revision to employment last year, but below expectations for an upward revision.

• University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for August).

Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading, falling about 6% from last month and landing about 11% below a year ago amid continued worries that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

This was slightly above consensus expectations.

• Speech, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Keynote Remarks, At the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyo

When labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low. There are always areas of concern in the labor market—for example, among recent graduates. In general, though, people who want to work, by and large, are holding or finding jobs. They may well be concerned about possible future labor disruptions, but as of now, I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment.

But on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7 percent, while the six-month change is 4.1 percent. The comparable measures from the consumer price index (CPI) are also elevated, as are the core measures of both PCE and CPI inflation. None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices.

Commentary: Oil Reserves Continue to Decline

I’m not an oil analyst, but I’ve read some concerning analysis that oil reserves world wide are declining significantly, and that this could led to a spike in oil and gas prices later this year.

Here is a graph of oil stock in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Reserve is now at 290 million barrels. This is the lowest level since 1982.

The recent decline is part of the 172 million barrel release authorized by the current administration. So far the SPR has released 125 million barrels of oil since March. There are concerns that these releases might impact the structural integrity of the salt caverns.

Schedule for Week of August 23, 2026

The key reports this coming week are Q2 GDP, July Personal Income & Outlays, July New Home sales and June Case-Shiller house prices.

Fed Chairman Warsh speaks at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday.

----- Monday, August 24th -----

8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, August 25th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.3% year-over-year increase in the National index for June up from 1.1% in May.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month. The consensus is for 630 thousand SAAR in July, up from 628 thousand in June.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for a reading of 7, up from 5 in July.

----- Wednesday, August 26th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in durable goods.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.5% annualized in Q2.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

----- Thursday, August 27th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 209 thousand from 206 thousand last week.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

----- Friday, August 28th -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. The consensus is for a decrease to 57.0 from 57.6.

10:00 AM Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National) for March 2026

10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for August). The consensus is for a reading of 51.0.

10:00 AM: Speech, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Keynote Remarks, At the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyo.

Review of Week of August 16, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.293 million Annual Rate in July

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased in Q2 2026

• Architecture Billings “Remain weak” in July

Other economic data:

The data last week was mostly better than expected (except housing data).

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $87 per barrel as of this writing, up about 35% since the start of the war (down from recent peak). The national average gasoline price is $4.10 per gallon, up 40% since the end of February, but down from the war peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August.

Business activity grew strongly in New York State in August, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose five points to 20.6, its highest reading in more than four years.

This was well above the consensus estimate for a reading of 9.6.

• August NAHB homebuilder survey.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched up one point to 35 in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

This was slightly above the consensus estimate.

• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.

Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing production each grew 0.2 percent in July after growing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the indexes for mining and for utilities increased 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent. At 103.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in July was 1.1 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.3 percent, a rate that is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

This was slightly below the consensus estimate.

• NAR Pending Home Sales Index for July

Pending home sales in July decreased by 2.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®

This was well below the consensus for a 0.5% increase in this index.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

This was down year-over-year and this index remains historically weak.

• FOMC Minutes, Meeting of July 28-29

Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Some participants commented that financial conditions might not currently be sufficiently restrictive to facilitate a return of inflation to 2 percent.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

n the week ending August 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 209,000 to 212,000.

This was lower than expected.

• Philly Fed manufacturing survey for August.

The diffusion index for current general activity rose from 41.4 in July to 47.4 in August, its highest reading since April 2021

This was much higher than expected.

Commentary: The Return of the Bond Vigilantes

This week the U.S. Federal government debt passed $40 Trillion. That is a big number, but what matters is the debt to GDP ratio. Here is a graph from FRED through Jan 1, 2026.

And the debt has gotten worse this year! And the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase further. This has led to an increase in the yield of long term bonds (lower prices). The 10-year yield has risen to 4.74% as of this writing, and mortgage rates are increasing (bad news for housing).

Here is a graph of the 10-year yield over the last 6 months.

We have a fairly weak economy, with inflation too high, and now interest rising due to policy choices (tax cuts and a war). Oh well.

Schedule for Week of August 16, 2026

The key report this coming week is July housing starts.

----- Monday, August 17th -----

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 9.6, down from 15.6.

10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, down from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, August 18th -----

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for July. The consensus is for 1.348 million SAAR in July, down from 1.427 million SAAR in June. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.3%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in this index.

----- Wednesday, August 19th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of July 28-29

----- Thursday, August 20th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 215 thousand from 209 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 25.3, down from 41.4.

----- Friday, August 21st -----

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2026

Review of Week of August 9, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.06 million SAAR in July

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2026

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2026

• Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease

• August ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 1.5% in mid-July"

Other economic data:

The data last week was mostly worse than expected (inflation was at expectations).

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $82 per barrel as of this writing, up about 25% since the start of the war (down from recent peak). The national average gasoline price is $4.06 per gallon, up 38% since the end of February, but down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• Consumer Price Index for July.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July … The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent after being unchanged in June. …

The all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending July after rising 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.5 percent over the year.

The was at the consensus estimate.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

This was down year-over-year and this index remains historically weak.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending August 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000.

This was higher than expected, but still very low.

• The Producer Price Index for July.

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July ... On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended in July. …

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4 percent in July after inching up 0.1 percent in June. For the 12 months ended in July, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.7 percent.

This was slightly below expectations of a 0.1% increase in PPI, but well above expectations for a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

• Retail sales for July.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $763.6 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, but up 5.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2025.

This was well below the consensus estimate of a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

Commentary: A Whiff of Stagflation

There is no formal definition for “stagflation”, however usually stagflation is considered a combination of slow growth, inflation, and rising unemployment. Fortunately the unemployment rate is low and not increasing, however job growth has been sluggish and the unemployment rate has stayed low since the participation rate has fallen sharply.

First, growth is sluggish. Not only was GDP growth low in the first half of 2026 even with some boost from tax cuts, but economists expect the 2nd half to be even slower.

Goldman Sachs economists noted today: "we continue to expect consumer spending growth to slow from the solid pace of 2026H1, as the boost to consumer cashflow from larger-than-usual tax refunds that supported spending earlier this year fades and the headwind from higher energy prices remains."

And the “solid pace” in 2026H1 was 2.1% in Q1, and 1.5% in Q2. And it looks likely that Q2 will be revised down. From BofA economists today: “our 2Q GDP tracking estimate is down 0.2pp to 1.2% q/q saar.”

Second, inflation has been persistently above target. CPI was up 3.4% YoY in July, and Core CPI was up 2.5%. And most analysts expect inflation to increase in the near term with higher oil and gasoline prices. And a growing concern is that inflation expectations might become unanchored. From the University of Michigan today:

“Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.2% in July to 4.3% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began”

However, the unemployment rate has stayed low. From the BLS last week:

“Both nonfarm payroll employment (-23,000) and the unemployment rate (4.1 percent) changed little in July”

A concern is the sharp decline in the participation rate. This is mostly because older workers are leaving the workforce, but there has also been a decline in the participation of younger workers - and a significant decline in the prime age (25 to 54 years) population. If the participation rate had held steady over the last year, the unemployment rate would have increased from 4.3% in July 2025 to 5.2% in July 2026! Now that would be stagflation!

Important Note: As noted, some of the decrease in the participation rate is older workers leaving the labor force.

Schedule for Week of August 9, 2026

The key report this coming week is the July employment report.

----- Monday, August 10th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, August 11th -----

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.07 million SAAR, down from 4.09 million in June. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, August 12th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.4% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.5% YoY.

----- Thursday, August 13th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 198 thousand from 199 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

----- Friday, August 14th -----

8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for July).

Review of Week of August 2, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June; Up 2.1% Year-over-year

• Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year

• Early Look at Local Housing Markets in July

• Single Family Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year

Other economic data:

The data last week was mostly below expectations.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $77 per barrel as of this writing, up close to 20% since the start of the war (down from recent peak). The national average gasoline price is $4.03 per gallon, up 37% since the end of February, but down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• Employment Report for July.

Both nonfarm payroll employment (-23,000) and the unemployment rate (4.1 percent) changed little in July

This was well below the consensus estimate and the previous two months were revised down sharply.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. The economy has only added 316 thousand jobs over the last 12 months! The weak job market might keep the FOMC on hold in September.

• Construction Spending for June.

Construction spending during June 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,166.5 billion, 0.1 percent (±0.8 percent)* below the revised May estimate of $2,168.5 billion. The June figure is 3.2 percent (±1.5 percent) below the June 2025 estimate of $2,237.7 billion.

This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

• ISM Manufacturing Index for July.

“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 55.6 percent in July, 2.3 percentage points above the June figure and the highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). … The Employment Index reading of 52.8 percent is up 3.1 percentage points from June’s figure of 49.7 percent, putting the index in expansion territory for the first time in 33 months,”

This was well above the consensus forecast of an increase to 54.0.

• Light vehicle sales for July.

Light vehicle sales were at the consensus forecast of 16.3 million SAAR in July, down from 16.5 million SAAR in June.

• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for June

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in June, down $4.4 billion from $77.6 billion in May, revised.

This was close to the consensus forecast.

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million, while total separations changed little at 5.4 million. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.

About as expected.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

This was down year-over-year and this index remains historically weak.

• The ADP Employment Report for July.

Private employers added 44,000 jobs in July

This was below the consensus forecast of 75,000 payroll jobs added in July.

• The ISM Services Index for July.

In July, the Services PMI^® registered 54.1 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to June’s figure of 54 percent. … The Employment Index returned to contraction territory after only one month in expansion with a reading of 47.4 percent, a 3.8-percentage point decrease from the 51.2 percent recorded in June.

This was slightly below the consensus forecast of 54.3. Employment was weak.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending August 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 197,000 to 198,000.

This was lower than expected.

Commentary: The Employment Situation

As I mentioned above, the July employment report was weak. Total payrolls decreased by 23 thousand in July. Private payrolls increased by 30 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 53 thousand (mostly local education that is likely a timing issue).

Payrolls for May and June were revised down by 169 thousand, combined. The economy has only added 316 thousand jobs over the last year.

The next graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 61.4% in July, from 61.5% in June - and down from 62.2% in July 2025. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 58.9% from 59.0% in June (blue line).

The collapse in the participation rate is a significant story. Some of this is related to older workers retiring. I’ll have more on this in a future commentary.

Schedule for Week of August 2, 2026

The key report this coming week is the July employment report.

----- Monday, August 3rd -----

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 54.0, up from 53.3 in June.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS)

All day: Light vehicle sales for July. The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 16.3 million SAAR from 16.5 million in June.

----- Tuesday, August 4th -----

8:30 AM: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a U.S. trade deficit of $73.0 billion from $77.6 billion in May.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, August 5th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 75,000 payroll jobs added in July, down from 98,000 added in June.

10:00 AM ET: the ISM Services Index for July. The consensus is for an increase to 54.3 from 54.0 in June.

----- Thursday, August 6th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 200 thousand from 197 thousand last week.

----- Friday, August 7th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for July. The consensus is for 90,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 57,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Review of Week of July 26, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.1% year-over-year in May

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in June

• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2027?

• Lawler: Update on the GSEs: Agency MBS Holdings Decline, Interest Rate Risk Measures Keep Rising

Other economic data:

The data last week was mostly below expectations.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $85 per barrel as of this writing, up significantly following the renewal of hostilities in the Middle East. The national average gasoline price is $4.09 per gallon, up 39% since the end of February, but still down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• Durable Goods Orders for June

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up three of the last four months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $334.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.

This was well below consensus expectations of a 1.6% increase.

• Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

Texas manufacturing output growth accelerated in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, increased six points to 10.1.

• Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

Fifth District manufacturing activity was mostly flat in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index was nearly unchanged in July, increasing from 4 to 5.

• Housing Vacancies and Homeownership for Second Quarter 2026

National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2026 were 7.3 percent for rental housing and 1.2 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2025 (7.0 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the first quarter 2026 (7.3 percent).

The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.2 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2025 (1.1 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2026 (1.1 percent).

The homeownership rate of 65.0 percent was virtually the same as the rate in the second quarter 2025 (65.0 percent) and not statistically different than the rate in the first quarter 2026 (65.3 percent).

The rental vacancy rate has increased slightly year-over-year.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This was up slightly year-over-year and this index remains historically weak.

• FOMC Announcement

As expected there was no change to policy. The Fed Funds rate was kept at at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. The press conference was ‘“dovish” raising concerns that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation. More below in the Commentary section.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 187,000 to 188,000.

This was well below expectations.

• Gross Domestic Product, (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026

This was below the consensus estimate of 2.3%, however final private domestic demand was up 3.9%.

• Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026

Personal income increased $54.9 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $48.3 billion (0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $65.2 billion (0.3 percent).

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago.

Personal income and spending were both below expectations. Inflation was at expectations.

Commentary: FOMC Meeting Recap

As expected, there was no change to the Fed Funds rate at the FOMC meeting this week. The press conference was ‘“dovish” raising concerns that the Fed is behind the curve on inflation. For example, from BofA economists:

The Fed stayed on hold as expected at its July meeting. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favor of a hike. Things got really interesting for markets at the press conference. Warsh evaded a lot of questions but made a few starkly dovish remarks. First, he opened the door for looking at other inflation indicators besides PCE. Second, he suggested there could be other tools besides hikes to fight inflation. Third, he implied that markets have done some of the Fed’s tightening work for it.

Markets responded by questioning the Fed’s credibility: long-end yields, and the dollar sold off substantially. Ironically, we think the need to re-establish credibility increases the probability that the Fed will hike in September, all else equal. Therefore, we remain comfortable with our forecast that the Fed will hike by 25bp each at its remaining three meetings this year.

Here is a graph of the Ten Year yield over the last week. Note the sharp increase on Wednesday. And today is even worse!

Mortgage rates have also moved higher, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.83% today.

Barring some soft inflation numbers or very weak employment numbers, it seems very likely the FOMC will raise rates in September.

Market expectations are for one or two rates hikes this year.

It is possible that we will see the first ever dissent from a Fed Chair with Kevin Warsh.

Schedule for Week of July 26, 2026

The key reports this coming week are Q2 GDP, June PCE inflation, and Case-Shiller house prices. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

----- Monday, July 27th -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June. The consensus is for a 1.6% increase in durable goods.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Tuesday, July 28th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.2% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for May up from 1.1% in April.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

10:00 AM: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership for Second Quarter 2026

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, July 29th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, July 30th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 206 thousand from 187 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.3% annualized in Q2.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

----- Friday, July 31st -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July. The consensus is for a increase to 57.5 from 56.7.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 54.4.

Review of Week of July 19, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• New Home Sales Increase to 628,000 Annual Rate in June

• Architecture Billings "Remain weak" in June

• NMHC on Apartments: "Tighter Market Conditions" in July Survey

• Housing Inventory: Single Family Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year

Other economic data:

There was little economic data last week.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $88 per barrel as of this writing, up significantly following the renewal of hostilities in the Middle East. The national average gasoline price is $4.10 per gallon, up 39% since the end of February, but still down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This was essentially unchanged year-over-year and this index remains historically weak.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 208,000 to 209,000.

This was well below expectations.

Commentary: FOMC Preview

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. However, market participants currently put the odds of a rate hike at around 35%, and they definitely expect a rate hike by the September meeting.

From BofA economists:

Our base case is that the Fed will stay on hold at 3.5-3.75% in July. But the spike in oil prices has made it a close call. With markets now pricing nearly 10bp of hikes in July, Chair Warsh faces a difficult choice. Not hiking could challenge the Fed’s credibility on inflation. But raising rates would go against his framework of looking through supply shocks. We think July is Warsh’s call as he has enough votes either way. He has strategic incentives to hike soon. We still expect three 25bp hikes, in Sep, Oct & Dec.

Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. For review, here are the June projections.

Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Real GDP increased 2.1% in Q1, and appears to be around 2.3% in Q2. This looks close to the June projections.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in June. This is slightly lower than the bottom of the projected range.

As of May 2026, PCE inflation increased 4.1percent year-over-year (YoY). This is above the recent projections, although inflation in June was weak. However, the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East - and more tariffs - will likely push up inflation in the coming months.

PCE core inflation increased 3.4 percent YoY in May.

Given the significant economic uncertainty, and rising inflation outlook, the FOMC will likely remain on hold at this meeting, but a September rate hike looks likely.

Schedule for Week of July 19, 2026

The key report this coming week is June New Home Sales.

----- Monday, July 20th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, July 21st -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, July 22nd -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, July 23rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 214 thousand from 208 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Friday, July 24th -----

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month. The consensus is for 610 thousand SAAR in June, up from 580 thousand in May.

Review of Week of July 12, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Housing Starts Increased to 1.427 million Annual Rate in June

• NAHB Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2026

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2026

Other economic data:

Economic data was mixed last week, but inflation was lower than expected (Most housing data was weak, although housing starts were above expectations due to the volatile multi-family sector).

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $81 per barrel as of this writing, up since with the renewal of hostilities in the Middle East. The national average gasoline price is $3.98 per gallon, up recently, but down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon.

• Consumer Price Index for June.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June … The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June. …

The all items index rose 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June after rising 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.9-percent increase over the 12 months ending May.

The was well below the consensus estimate of a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

There was a holiday adjustment this week, but this index remains historically weak.

• New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July.

Business activity picked up considerably in New York State in July, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose ten points to 15.6.

This was above the consensus estimate for a reading of 8.6.

• The Producer Price Index for June.

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3 percent in June, seasonally adjusted ... On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased
5.5 percent for the 12 months ended in June. …

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.1 percent in June after jumping 0.8 percent in May. For the 12 months ended in June, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.1 percent.

This was below expectations of no change in PPI, and a 0.4% increase in core PPI.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000.

This was below expectations.

• Retail sales for June.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent from June 2025.

This was slightly below the consensus estimate.

• Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July.

The diffusion index for current general activity rose from -0.4 in May to 10.3 in June

This was slightly weaker than expected.

• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June.

Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.1 percent in June and grew at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June but rose at an annual rate of 4.7 percent in the second quarter. The indexes for mining and for utilities both grew 0.4 percent in June. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in June was 1.1 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.1 percent, a rate that is 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

This was slightly below the consensus estimate.

Commentary: Hotel Occupancy

Something I like to track is hotel occupancy. Last year was very difficult for hotels as international travel during the Summer months declined due to the policies and rhetoric of the current administration.

This Spring was positive for hotels, and occupancy was solid recently with the World Cup being held in the U.S..

From Costar: U.S. hotel results for week ending 4 July

28 June through 4 July 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2025):

• Occupancy: 63.5% (+3.9%)

• Average daily rate (ADR): US$167.95 (+6.7%)

• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$106.66 (+10.9%)

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2026, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2025. Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average is ahead of last year and at the median for 2000-2025.

Note: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The remainder of the Summer - after the World Cup - will be key for hotels.

Schedule for Week of July 12, 2026

The key reports this coming week are June CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

----- Monday, July 13th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, July 14th -----

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.9% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.9% YoY.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, July 15th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 8.6, up from 5.7.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a no change in PPI, and a 0.4% increase in core PPI.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, July 16th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 218 thousand from 215 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, up from 10.3.

10:00 AM: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 35, unchanged from 35 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in this index.

----- Friday, July 17th -----

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 76.2%.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.320 million SAAR in June, up from 1.177 million SAAR in May. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for July).

Review of Week of July 5, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.09 million SAAR in June

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 4.4% Below 2022 Peak

• July ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 1.3% in mid-June"

• Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June

Other economic data:

Economic data was close to expectations this week (Existing home sales were below expectations).

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $72 per barrel as of this writing, down significantly from recent peak, and up 10% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $3.84 per gallon, down sharply from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon, but up about 31% since late February. It takes time for lower oil prices to reach the pumps.

• ISM Services Index for June.

In June, the Services PMI^® registered 54 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to May’s figure of 54.5 percent.

This was close to expectations.

• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for May.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $77.6 billion in May, up $23.0 billion from $54.6 billion in April, revised.

May exports were $317.7 billion, $10.5 billion less than April exports. May imports were $395.3 billion, $12.5 billion more than April imports.

This was close to the consensus estimate.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This remains historically weak.

• FOMC Minutes, Meeting of June 16-17

The majority of participants highlighted the possibility that, after several years of inflation above 2 percent, continued elevated inflation rates could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting decisions. …

Regarding participants' individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy under what each participant judged to be the most likely scenario for the economy, many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. Many other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range at the end of this year.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 215,000 to 217,000.

This was close to expectations.

Commentary: Tracking Q2 GDP

The advance estimate of Q2 2026 GDP will be released July 30th. Some of the tracking estimates suggest GDP will be fairly weak in Q2 (and many analysts have been expecting the 2nd half of 2026 will be weak).

Here are some tracking estimates:

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 2Q GDP tracking is down to 1.4% q/q saar and 1Q GDP came close to our forecast at 2.1% q/q saar in the third estimate. [July 10th estimate]

emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q2 GDP growth tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 2.1% [July 6th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow. They are tracking at 1.3% as of July 8th.

It appears GDP was somewhat weak in Q2.

Schedule for Week of July 5, 2026

The key reports this coming week are June Existing Home Sales, and the May Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, July 6th -----

10:00 AM ET: the ISM Services Index for June.

----- Tuesday, July 7th -----

8:30 AM: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a U.S. trade deficit of $78.8 billion from $55.9 billion in April.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, July 8th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of June 16-17

----- Thursday, July 9th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 210 thousand from 215 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.17 million in May. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

----- Friday, July 10th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

Review of Week of June 28, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.8% year-over-year in April

• FHFA’s Q1 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in May; Up 1.9% Year-over-year

• Lawler: Update on the GSEs: MBS Holdings Decline, Interest Rate Risk Measures Keep Rising

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in May

Other economic data:

Economic data was mostly weak again last week.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $69 per barrel as of this writing, down significantly with easing tensions, and up only 6% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $3.79 per gallon, down sharply from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon, but up about 30% since late February. It takes time for lower oil prices to reach the pumps.

• Employment Report for June.

Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in June.

This was well below the consensus estimate and the previous two months were revised down sharply.

• Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

Texas manufacturing output growth decelerated in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to 4.1, a reading suggestive of a below-average pace of output expansion.

This was below the consensus estimate.

• Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, cooled 6.0 points to 56.7 in June. The Barometer remained in expansionary territory for a second consecutive month.

This was below the consensus estimate.

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May.

The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.6 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were unchanged at 5.2 million, while total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were unchanged.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This remains historically weak.

• ADP Employment Report for June.

Private employers added 98,000 jobs in June

This was below consensus expectations.

• Construction Spending for May.

Construction spending during May 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,210.2 billion, 0.1 percent (±0.7 percent)* above the revised April estimate of $2,207.1 billion. The May figure is 1.5 percent (±1.3 percent) below the May 2025 estimate of $2,244.4 billion.

This was below consensus expectations.

• ISM Manufacturing Index for June.

The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 53.3 percent in June, 0.7 percentage point lower than in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 20th month in a row.

This was below consensus expectations.

• Light vehicle sales for June. Sales were at 16.5 Million SAAR, up from 16.1 million the previous month. This was at consensus expectations.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000.

This was lower than expected.

Commentary: World Cup is Boosting Hotel Occupancy

Something I like to track is hotel occupancy. Last year was very difficult for hotels as international travel during the Summer months declined due to the policies and rhetoric of the current administration.

This Spring was positive for hotels, and occupancy will improve in the Summer with the World Cup being held in the U.S..

From Costar: U.S. hotel results for week ending 20 June

14-20 June 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2025):

• Occupancy: 71.3% (+1.2%)

• Average daily rate (ADR): US$178.03 (+8.4%)

• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$126.86 (+9.7%)

Cities that hosted World Cup matches was the largest increase in occupancy.

Among the Top 25 Markets, San Francisco saw the highest increases in each of the three key performance metrics: occupancy (+17.6% to 84.8%), ADR (+53.5% to US$301.35) and RevPAR (+80.5% to US$255.45). The market’s performance was helped by two World Cup matches and the Databricks Data + AI Summit.

Houston, which hosted three World Cup matches, reported the second-largest RevPAR gain (+28.1% to US$100.01), while Seattle, host of two World Cup matches, posted the second-highest ADR lift (+30.5% to US$271.80).

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2026, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2025. Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average is just below the median for 2000-2025.

Note: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

A key for hotels will be after the World Cup finishes.

Schedule for Week of June 28, 2026

The key reports this coming week are the June employment report, June Vehicle sales and Case-Shiller house prices.

----- Monday, June 29th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Tuesday, June 30th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.0% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for May up from 0.8% in March.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 60.0 from 62.7.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, July 1st -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 118,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 122,000 added in May.

9:00 AM: Discussion, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Policy Panel Discussion, At the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2026, Sintra, Portugal

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.7, down from 54.0 in May.

All day: Light vehicle sales for June. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 16.5 million SAAR from 16.1 million in May. This graph shows light vehicle sales - the dashed line is the May sales rate.

----- Thursday, July 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increased to 220 thousand from 215 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Employment Report for June. The consensus is for 114,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate be unchanged at 4.3%. There were 172,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

----- Friday, July 3rd -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day

Review of Week of June 21, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• New Home Sales Decrease to 580,000 Annual Rate in May

• Inventory will Tell the Tale

• Architecture Billings "Weaken further" in May

Other economic data:

Data was mixed last week with GDP revised up, but mostly weaker than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $69 per barrel as of this writing, down significantly with easing tensions, up only 6% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $3.87 per gallon, down sharply from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon, but up about 32% since late February. It takes time for lower oil prices to reach the pumps.

• Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

The composite manufacturing index decreased to 4 in June from 13 in May. All three of its component indexes fell in June

This was well below the consensus estimate.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This remains historically weak.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

This was lower than expected.

• Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.

Real GDP was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.

This was above the consensus estimate of a 1.6% increase.

• Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026

Personal income increased $181.6 billion (0.7 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $164.9 billion (0.7 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $156.1 billion (0.7 percent).

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 4.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.4 percent from one year ago.

Personal income and spending were above expectations. The sharp increase in inflation was expected.

• Durable Goods Orders for May

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $15.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $332.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.

This was well below consensus expectations.

Commentary: The American Experiment - 250 Years!

This week we will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

The American Revolutionary War lasted from 1775 until 1983. And the U.S. Constitution was signed in 1787.

On a personal note: My 4th Great Grandfather, William Marks (1749 – 1824) fought in the revolutionary war. His son, my 3rd Great Grandfather, William Marks, Jr. was a Brigadier General during the war of 1812 – and went on the serve as a U.S. Senator from the State of Pennsylvania.

We must remember what they fought for: independence from dictators, democracy, self government “Governments instituted among men”, and that America’s core value is the rule of law rooted in the U.S. Constitution.

On this anniversary I believe we should celebrate this amazing gift from the founding fathers and rededicate ourselves to the core principles of America. Happy July 4th!

Schedule for Week of June 21, 2026

The key reports this coming week are the 3rd estimate of Q1 GDP, May New Home Sales and May Personal Income & Outlays with PCE inflation.

----- Monday, June 22nd -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, June 23rd -----

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 9 from 13 in May.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, June 24th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month. The consensus is for 640 thousand SAAR in May, up from 622 thousand in April.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for May 2025.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for May (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, June 25th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decreased to 225 thousand from 226 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.6% annualized in Q1, unchanged from 1.6% in the second estimate.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Friday, June 26th -----

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 49.3.

Review of Week of June 14, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Housing Starts Decreased Sharply to 1.177 million Annual Rate in May

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2026

• Housing Starts: Average Length of Time from Start to Completion Still Very Elevated for Multi-family in 2025

Other economic data:

Data was mixed last week, but mostly weaker than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $78 per barrel as of this writing, down from the war peak, but up 20% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $3.93 per gallon, down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon, but up about 33% since late February.

• New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for May.

The headline general business conditions index remained positive but fell fourteen points to 5.7.

This was below the consensus estimate.

• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May.

Industrial production (IP) edged up 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing output was unchanged in May after increasing 0.7 percent in April. In May, the index for mining rose 1.3 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.4 percent. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in May was 1.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.2 percent, a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

This was slightly below the consensus estimate.

• June NAHB homebuilder survey.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 35 in June, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the 14th straight month that sentiment has remained below 40, a streak not seen since 2011-2012 during the foreclosure crisis.

This was below the consensus estimate.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This remains historically weak.

• Retail sales for May.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $763.7 billion, up 0.9 percent from the previous month, and up 6.9 percent from May 2025.

This was well above the consensus estimate as retail sales were boosted by gasoline prices.

• Pending Home Sales Index for May.

Pending home sales in May increased by 3.8% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report.

This was well above the consensus estimate.

• FOMC Announcement and Projections.

As expected there was no change to policy. The Fed Funds rate was kept at at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. The projections were '“hawkish” suggesting a possible rate hike later this year.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

This was weaker than expected.

• Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June.

The diffusion index for current general activity rose from -0.4 in May to 10.3 in June

This was slightly weaker than expected.

Commentary: FOMC Meeting Recap

As expected, there was no change to the Fed Funds rate at the FOMC meeting this week. A few key points:

• This was Fed Chairman’s Kevin Warsh first meeting and he announced the creation of five task forces to review 1) Fed communications, 2) the Fed’s balance sheet, 3) the Fed’s data sources, 4) “productivity and jobs” and 5) the Fed’s inflation framework.

• The projections were “hawkish” with 9 members of the FOMC projecting a rate hike later this year (Warsh didn’t submit projections).

Market expectations have moved from two rate cuts this year to a rate hike in September with a possible second hike in December.

As far as the projections, GDP was revised up slightly and the unemployment rate was mostly unchanged. However inflation projections were revised up significantly.

Schedule for Week of June 14, 2026

The key reports this coming week are May Housing Starts and Retail sales. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

----- Monday, June 15th -----

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 12.5, down from 19.6.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.2%.

10:00 AM: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 37, unchanged from 37 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, June 16th -----

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.440 million SAAR in May, down from 1.465 million SAAR in April. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, June 17th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in retail sales.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in this index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected.

2:00 PM: FOMC Projections. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, June 18th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 224 thousand from 229 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 12.0, up from -0.4.

----- Friday, June 19th -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day

Review of Week of June 7, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.17 million SAAR in May

• The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2026

• June ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 1.0% in mid-May"

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May

Other economic data:

In general, data was worse than expected last week.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $85 per barrel as of this writing, down from the war peak, but up 32% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.06 per gallon, down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon, but up about 37% since late February.

• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for April

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.9 billion in April, down $0.7 billion from $56.6 billion in March, revised.

This was close to the consensus estimate. The following graph shows the trade deficit with and without petroleum. Note the huge surge in petroleum exports in March and April as the U.S. used SPR oil to ship to other countries.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 17 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This remains historically weak.

• Consumer Price Index for May.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May … The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May. …

The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the year, following a 2.8-percent increase over the 12 months ending April.

The was at the consensus.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 225,000.

This was weaker than expected.

• The Producer Price Index for May.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted ... the index for final demand increased 6.5 percent for the 12 months ended in May …

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.8 percent in May … For the 12 months ended in May, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 5.1 percent

This was much higher than expected.

Commentary: FOMC Preview

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. Market participants now expect the next FOMC move to be a rate hike, possibly in December or January.

Projections will be released at this meeting. For review, here are the March projections.

From BofA economists:

We expect the FOMC to keep the policy rate at 3.5-3.75% in June and remove the easing bias from its statement. We don’t anticipate any dissents. The SEP should show higher inflation, a lower u-rate and no cuts this year. A few policymakers will likely project hikes. We don’t think Warsh will submit forecasts. We expect him to lean dovish in the presser, arguing: i) supply shocks are one-offs, ii) the Fed should be forward looking on AI disinflation, iii) trimmed-mean PCE and wage inflation don’t look problematic.

Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Real GDP increased 1.6% in Q1, and appears to be around 2.5% in Q2. The FOMC will likely leave this mostly unchanged.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in May. This is at the bottom of the projected range and will likely be unchanged.

As of April 2026, PCE inflation increased 3.8 percent year-over-year (YoY). This will likely increase further and it is likely this will be revised up in the projections.

PCE core inflation increased 3.3 percent YoY in April, and will likely be revised up.

Given the significant economic uncertainty, and rising inflation outlook, the FOMC will likely remain on hold for the next several meetings.

Schedule for Week of June 7, 2026

The key reports this coming week are May CPI and Existing home sales.

----- Monday, June 8th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, June 9th -----

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May.

8:30 AM: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a U.S. trade deficit of $55.5 billion from $60.3 billion in March.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.02 million in April. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, June 10th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 4.2% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.9% YoY.

----- Thursday, June 11th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 219 thousand from 225 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in PPI, and a 0.4% increase in core PPI.

12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, June 12th -----

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for June).

Review of Week of May 31, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• The Long and Winding Road

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in April

• Lawler: Update on the GSEs

• Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year

• An Interview with Jim the Realtor

Other economic data:

Data was mostly better than expected last week.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $91 per barrel as of this writing, down from the war peak, but up 36% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.17 per gallon, up about 40% since late February.

• The May Employment Report

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

This was well above the consensus forecast of 96,000 jobs added. And the previous two months were revised up.

• ISM Manufacturing Index for May.

“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 54 percent in May, 1.3 percentage points higher than in April and its highest reading since May 2022 (55.9 percent). … The Employment Index registered 48.6 percent, up 2.2 percentage points from April’s figure of 46.4 percent,”

This was above consensus expectations.

• Construction Spending for April.

Construction spending during April 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,172.4 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised March estimate of $2,164.5 billion. The April figure is 0.9 percent above the April 2025 estimate of $2,153.4 billion.

This was slightly above consensus expectations, however, construction spending remains weak.

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April

The number of job openings increased to 7.6 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported …

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings increased sharply in April to 7.6 million from 6.9 million in March. The number of job openings (black) were up 7% year-over-year.

• Light vehicle sales for May. Sales were at 16.1 million SAAR in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 3.2% year-over-year. This was slightly above the consensus forecast. This graph shows light vehicle sales - the dashed line is the May sales rate.

• Heavy truck sales for May. Sales were at 0.40 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 11.5% year-over-year. Heavy truck sales have been very weak.

• ADP Employment Report for May.

Private employers added 122,000 jobs in May

This was above consensus expectations.

• ISM Services Index for May

“In May, the Services PMI^® registered 54.5 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point compared to April’s figure of 53.6 percent. … The Employment Index contracted for the third month in a row with a reading of 47.9 percent, a 0.1-percentage point decrease from the 48 percent recorded in April”

The employment index remained weak.

• The Federal Reserve Beige Book

Economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while one District reported a slight decline and one reported no change.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 14 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

This remains weak.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 3,000 from 215,000 to 212,000.

This was weaker than expected.

Commentary: Oil Reserves Declining

I’m not an oil analyst, but I’ve read some concerning analysis that oil reserves world wide are declining significantly, and that this could led to a spike in oil and gas prices over the summer if oil isn’t flowing by July.

Here is a graph of oil stock in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The U.S. SPR is declining about 9 million barrels per week. It will be close to the Russian invasion of Ukraine low next week and at the lowest level since 1983 the following week.

From Politico: Oil industry warns Trump administration of price spikes within weeks

Schedule for Week of May 31, 2026

The key report this coming week is the May employment report.

----- Sunday, May 31st -----

8:30 PM: Speech, Fed Governor Jerome H. Powell, Acceptance Remarks, At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

----- Monday, June 1st -----

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 52.6, down from 52.7 in April.

----- Tuesday, June 2nd -----

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April from the BLS.

All day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for am increase in sales to 16.0 million SAAR from 15.9 million in April. This graph shows light vehicle sales - the dashed line is the April sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, June 3rd -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 110,000 payroll jobs added in May, up from 109,000 added in April.

10:00 AM ET: the ISM Services Index for May.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, June 4th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 211 thousand from 215 thousand last week.

----- Friday, June 5th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for May. The consensus is for 96,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate be unchanged at 4.3%. There were 115,000 jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Review of Week of May 24, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in March

• New Home Sales Decrease to 622,000 Annual Rate in April

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.7% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 1.4% Year-over-year

Other economic data:

Data was mostly worse than expected last week.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $87 per barrel as of this writing, down from the war peak, but up 34% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.35 per gallon, up almost 50% since late February.

• GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2026

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.

This was below the consensus estimate of a 2.1% increase.

• Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026

Personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion (less than 0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $19.9 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $111.1 billion (0.5 percent).

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 3.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.3 percent from one year ago.

Personal income was well below expectations. The sharp increase in inflation was expected.

• Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

Texas manufacturing output growth accelerated in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 12 points to 19.0, a reading suggestive of an above-average pace of output expansion.Texas manufacturing output growth decelerated in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 10 points to 9.4, a reading suggestive of an average pace of output expansion.

This was weaker than the consensus estimate.

• Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased to 13 in May from 3 in April. All three of its component indexes rose in May: shipments to 16 from −2, new orders to 17 from 8, and employment to 3 from 0.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 209,000 to 210,000.

This was weaker than expected.

• Durable Goods Orders for April

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase.

This was well above consensus expectations.

Commentary: Tracking Q2 GDP

GDP growth has been weak recently.

Here are some tracking estimates for Q2:

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 2.5% q/q saar and 1Q GDP was revised down from 2.0% to 1.6% in the second estimate. [May 29th estimate] emphasis added

From Goldman:

On net, we left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +1.6%. [May 29th estimate]

And the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow is tracking 3.8% for Q2. GDPNow has been very good, but is probably overestimating Q2 GDP.

Schedule for Week of May 24, 2026

The key reports this coming week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, April New Home Sales, and Case-Shiller house prices.

----- Monday, May 25th -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 26th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.0% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for March up from 0.9% in February.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, May 27th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May.

----- Thursday, May 28th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 212 thousand from 211 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Second Estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q1, up from 2.0% in the advance estimate.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 3.8% YoY, and core PCE prices up 3.3% YoY.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April. The consensus is for a 3.0% increase in durable goods.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR in April, down from 682 thousand in March.

----- Friday, May 29th -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May.

Review of Week of May 17, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.465 million Annual Rate in April

• Architecture Billings "Retreat" in April

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026

• Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads (And Some Bond Market Commentary)

Other economic data:

Data was mostly close to expectations last week.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $97 per barrel as of this writing, up over 50% since late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.55 per gallon, up 50% since late February.

• The May NAHB homebuilder survey

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes increased three points to 37 in May.

This was above expectations, but has been negative (below 50) for 31 of the last 33 months.

• The Pending Home Sales Index for April

Pending home sales in April increased by 1.4% month over month and rose 3.2% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®

This was above consensus estimates.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

• FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April 28-29

A majority of participants highlighted … that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent.

This was viewed as “hawkish”, and market participants now expect the next Fed move to be a rate hike, possibly in December.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending May 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000.

This was close to expectations.

• Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May

The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 26.7 in April to -0.4 in May after rising in each of the previous four months … The employment index rose 2 points to -2.8 in May, its third negative reading in four months.

This was well below consensus expectations.

Commentary: Watch Inflation

One of the most important economic stories right now is the surge in inflation. In the FOMC minutes, most participants expressed concern about inflation, and market participants now think the next FOMC rate move will be a hike, not a rate cut.

Economists at BofA put out a research comment this morning noting:

[W]e forecast a 0.4% m/m advance in headline PCE (3.8% y/y). Core PCE should increase by 0.3% m/m (3.3% y/y) as inflation data continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target.

That would mean core inflation is running just below the Fed Funds rate!

How long this “surge” in inflation lasts is a key unknown. It depends on when the war ends, and how quickly energy shipments return to pre-war levels.

And inflation expectations have increased. From the University of Michigan survey this morning:

Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.7% last month to 4.8% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February 2026 prior to the start of the Iran conflict, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 3.5% in April to 3.9% in May, notably higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.

Here is a graph from FRED of 5-year inflation expectations. Note the recent increase (Still relatively low).

Given the surge in inflation, the FOMC will remain on hold for some time, and they will lean towards raising rates if there is spillover into other items or inflation expectations continue to increase.

Schedule for Week of May 17, 2026

The key report this coming week is April housing starts.

----- Monday, May 18th -----

10:00 AM: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, unchanged from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, May 19th -----

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 1.6% increase in this index.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, May 20th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April 28-29

----- Thursday, May 21st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 207 thousand from 211 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 15.5, down from 26.7.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for April. The consensus is for 1.420 million SAAR in April, down from 1.502 million SAAR in March. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.

----- Friday, May 22nd -----

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2026

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 55.5.

Review of Week of May 10, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased Slightly to 4.02 million SAAR in April

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2026

• Q1 NY Fed Report: Credit Scores for Mortgages Still Solid, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q1 2026

• May ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 0.9% in April"

Other economic data:

Data was mostly above expectations last week, with inflation increasing more than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $104 per barrel as of this writing, up 60% since late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.53 per gallon, up 50% since late February.

• The Consumer Price Index for April.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April … The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April. … The all items index rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April … The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the year.

This was slightly above consensus estimates, and indicates a pickup in inflation.

• The Producer Price Index for April.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April … The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April. … The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.6 percent in April … the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

This was well above consensus estimates, and also indicates a significant surge in inflation.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 200,000 to 199,000.

This was slightly above expectations.

• Retail sales for April

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $757.1 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 4.9 percent from April 2025.

This was slightly above consensus expectations, with gasoline sales up sharply (due to much higher prices).

• New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April

The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 19.6, its highest level in more than four years.

This was well above consensus expectations.

• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after decreasing 0.3 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent, the index for mining ticked down 0.1 percent, and utilities output moved up 1.9 percent. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.3 percent. At 102.5 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in April was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 76.1 percent, a rate that is 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

This was well above consensus expectations.

Commentary: An Update on Hotel Occupancy

Something I like to track is hotel occupancy. Last year was very difficult for hotels as international travel during the Summer months declined due to the policies and rhetoric of the current administration. There is some hope that occupancy will improve in 2026 with the World Cup being held in the U.S..

From Costar: U.S. hotel results for week ending 4 April

3-9 May 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2025):

• Occupancy: 64.8% (+0.3%)

• Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.75 (+1.7%)

• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$107.44 (+2.0%)

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2026, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2025. Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Occupancy has picked up recently and is above the median for 2000-2025.

Note: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly say at this level seasonally until the summer travel season.

Schedule for Week of May 10, 2026

The key reports this coming week are the April CPI, Retail Sales and Existing Home sales.

----- Monday, May 11th -----

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.05 million SAAR, up from 3.98 million in March. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

----- Tuesday, May 12th -----

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.4% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.7% YoY.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, May 13th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

----- Thursday, May 14th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 205 thousand from 200 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Retail sales for April is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales.

----- Friday, May 15th -----

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 8.1, down from 11.0.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.9%.

Review of Week of May 3, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• New Home Sales Increase to 682,000 Annual Rate in March

• Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April

Other economic data:

Data was mostly close to expectations last week, with employment gains higher than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $96 per barrel as of this writing, up almost 50% since late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.56 per gallon, up over 50% since late February.

• The April Employment Report

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

This was well above the consensus forecast of 73,000 jobs added. The previous two months were revised down. The economy has only added 251,000 jobs over the last year.

• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for March

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $60.3 billion in March, up $2.5 billion from $57.8 billion in February, revised.

March exports were $320.9 billion, $6.2 billion more than February exports. March imports were $381.2 billion, $8.7 billion more than February imports.

The trade deficit was slightly larger than consensus estimates.

• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March

The number of job openings was unchanged at 6.9 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires increased to 5.6 million while total separations changed little at 5.4 million.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings decreased in March to 7.15 million from 7.45 million in February. The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year.

• ISM Services Index for April

“In April, the Services PMI^® registered 53.6 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point compared to March’s figure of 54 percent. … The Employment Index contracted for the second month in a row with a reading of 48 percent, a 2.8-percentage point increase from the 45.2 percent recorded in March.”

The employment index increased, but remained weak.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

• ADP Employment Report for April.

Private employers added 109,000 jobs in April

This was above consensus expectations.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending May 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 200,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 189,000 to 190,000.

This was close to expectations.

• Construction Spending for February and March.

Construction spending during March 2026 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,185.5 billion, 0.6 percent above the February estimate of $2,173.2 billion. The March figure is 1.6 percent above the March 2025 estimate of $2,150.8 billion

Construction spending remains weak.

Commentary: The Inflation “Surge”

A key economic story is the current surge in inflation related to the Iran war and much higher oil and gasoline prices.

Economists at BofA put out a research comment this week noting:

April CPI should continue to show the effects of the Iran war. We forecast a 0.5% m/m (0.51%, 3.7% y/y) increase in headline CPI, owing in large part to a 4.3% m/m pop in energy. Core CPI, meanwhile, likely rose by 0.3% m/m (0.29%, 2.7% y/y) reflecting the payback in rents from the shutdown and sticky non-housing services inflation. We think the risks to our forecasts are skewed to the upside for both headline and core inflation.

How long this “surge” in inflation lasts is a key unknown. It depends on when the war ends, and how quickly energy shipments return to pre-war levels.

Will the surge in energy prices spillover into other prices? It is not just gasoline. Diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer and other petroleum related products are seeing sharp price increases. And we might start seeing some spillover into other items.

And inflation expectations have increased. Here is a graph from FRED of 5-year inflation expectations. Note the recent increase. However, in general, inflation expectations are still mostly contained.

Given the surge in inflation, the FOMC will remain on hold for some time, and might lean towards raising rates if there is spillover into other items and / or inflation expectations continue to increase.

Schedule for Week of May 3, 2026

The key reports this coming week are the April employment report and New Home sales for February and March.

----- Monday, May 4th -----

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS)

----- Tuesday, May 5th -----

8:30 AM: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a U.S. trade deficit of $59.7 billion from $57.3 billion in February.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for February and March from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month. The consensus is for 668 thousand SAAR in March, up from 587 thousand in January.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS.

10:00 AM ET: the ISM Services Index for April.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, May 6th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 79,000 payroll jobs added in April, up from 62,000 added in March.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2026

----- Thursday, May 7th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 199 thousand from 189 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February and March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

----- Friday, May 8th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for April. The consensus is for 73,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate be unchanged at 4.3%. There were 178,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May).

Review of Week of April 19, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.7% year-over-year in February

• Housing Starts Increased to 1.502 million Annual Rate in March

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in March

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in March; Up only 0.7% Year-over-year

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.6% Below 2022 Peak

• Lawler: Update on the GSEs: What the F(s)?

Other economic data:

Data was mixed last week, with Q1 GDP lower than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $102 per barrel as of this writing, up 50% since late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.42 per gallon, up almost 50% since late February.

• Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate).

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 0.5 percent.

This was below the consensus estimate of a 2.4% increase.

• Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026

Personal income increased $149.2 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $142.5 billion (0.6 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $195.4 billion (0.9 percent).

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for March increased 3.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.2 percent from one year ago.

Personal income was above expectations. The increase in inflation was expected.

• ISM Manufacturing Index for April.

“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 52.7 percent in April, the same reading as March. … Employment Index registered 46.4 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from March’s figure of 48.7 percent.”

This was below consensus expectations, and employment was weak.

• Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

Texas manufacturing output growth accelerated in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 12 points to 19.0, a reading suggestive of an above-average pace of output expansion.

This was above the consensus estimate.

• Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index inched up to 3 in April from 0 in March.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Note for the NSA data: the comparable week in 2025 in 2025 included Easter.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 189,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000.

This was much lower than expected.

Commentary: FOMC Meeting Recap

As expected, there was no change to the Fed Funds rate at the FOMC meeting this week. A few key points:

• This was Fed Chair Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair. Kevin Warsh will almost certainly be Fed Chair at the next FOMC meeting in June.

• Three members of the FOMC “dissented” due to the implied easing bias. “Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”

• Fed Chair Powell has decided to stay on as Fed Governor (his term expires in 2028) “for a period of time to be determined.” Powell added that he will leave “when I think it is appropriate to do so.”

Market expectations have moved from two rate cuts this year to none, and that the FOMC will be on hold until late 2027.

It seems likely Powell will stay on as Fed Governor for some time. There is precedent for this: Fed Chair Marriner Eccles stayed on after serving as Fed Chair, and Alan Greenspan was quoted in Woodward’s book “Maestro”, saying that he’d have stayed on in 1996 if he hadn’t been reappointed as Fed Chair.

We also might see the first ever dissent from a Fed Chair with Kevin Warsh.

Schedule for Week of April 26, 2026

The key reports this coming week are housing starts and Case-Shiller house prices. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

----- Monday, April 27th -----

10:00 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

----- Tuesday, April 28th -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for February.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.2% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for February unchanged from 1.2% in January.

10:00 AM: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership for First Quarter 2026

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, April 29th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for February and March. The consensus is for 1.400 million SAAR in March, down from 1.487 million SAAR in January. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, April 30th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 215 thousand from 214 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.9% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 3.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 3.2% YoY.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q1.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April.

----- Friday, May 1st -----

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.2, up from 52.7 in March.

All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus is for an decrease in sales to 16.1 million SAAR from 16.3 million in March. This graph shows light vehicle sales - the dashed line is the March sales rate.

Review of Week of April 19, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales

• Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

• Architecture Billings Declined Slightly in March

• NMHC on Apartments: Market Tightness "mostly unchanged" in April Survey

Other economic data:

This was a light week for economic data, but, in general, data was better than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $95 per barrel as of this writing, down from the peak of $117, but still up almost 50% since late February. The national average gasoline prices is $4.05 per gallon, up 35% since late February.

• Retail sales for March.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $752.1 billion, up 1.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2025.

This was above the consensus forecast for a 1.3% increase.

• Pending Home Sales Index for March.

Pending home sales in March increased by 1.5% from the prior month and declined 1.1% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report.

This was above the consensus estimate, but still down year-over-year.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

The purchase index is up from the lows in 2023 and 2024, but at the lows for the housing bust.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

This was close to consensus expectations.

Commentary: FOMC Preview

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. Market participants now expect no further rate cuts this year, and for the FOMC to be on hold through most of 2027.

Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. For review, here are the March projections.

From BofA economists:

The Fed will remain firmly on hold at its April meeting. The inflation outlook is arguably as cloudy as it was at the time of the March meeting. Although equities are trading as though the Iran war is over, gas is still above $4 and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still highly disrupted. As a result, uncertainty about the impact of the conflict on core inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, the recent labor data show resilience and potentially some green shoots. This should reduce the sense of urgency to shore up the labor market among the doves.

There continues to be significant uncertainty about both the duration and economic impact of the war.

Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in March. This is at the bottom of the projected range.

As of February 2026, PCE inflation increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY). This will increase over the next few months.

PCE core inflation increased 3.0 percent YoY in February.

Given the significant economic uncertainty, and rising inflation outlook, the FOMC will remain on hold at this meeting.

Schedule for Week of April 19, 2026

The key report this coming week is March Retail sales.

----- Monday, April 20th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, April 21st -----

8:30 AM: Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in this index.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, April 22nd -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for February 2026

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, April 23rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 213 thousand from 207 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.

----- Friday, April 24th -----

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 48.5.

Review of Week of April 12, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.98 million SAAR in March

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

Other economic data:

In general, economic data was better than expected - except housing data!

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $83 per barrel as of this writing, down from the peak of $117, but still up 33% since late February. The national average gasoline prices is $4.05 per gallon, up 35% since late February.

• The Producer Price Index for March

U.S. import prices increased 0.8 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.9-percent rise in February.

This was high, but below consensus expectations.

• The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey

Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose eleven points to 11.0.

This was above consensus expectations.

• The Philly Fed manufacturing survey

The current general business activity diffusion index rose to 26.7 in April from 18.1 in March.

This was well above consensus expectations.

• The March NAHB homebuilder survey

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 34 in April.

Here are the readings for the three HMI indices in April:

• Current sales conditions fell four points to 37.

• Sales expectations in the next six months dropped seven points to 42.

• Traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point decline to 22.

This was below consensus expectations and has been negative (below 50) for 30 of the last 32 months,

• The Federal Reserve Beige Book

Overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts reported little change and two Districts reported slight to modest declines. The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was unchanged compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The purchase index is up from the lows in 2023 and 2024, but at the lows for the housing bust. This was down year-over-year (NSA) recently.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

This was lower than consensus expectations.

• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) dropped 0.5 percent in March but still grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter. Similarly, manufacturing output ticked down 0.1 percent in March yet grew at a 3.0 percent rate in the first quarter. The indexes for mining and for utilities moved down 1.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively, in March. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.

Both industrial production and capacity utilization were below expectations.

Commentary: Recession Watch Metrics

Although I think a recession is unlikely in 2026, there is significant economic and policy uncertainty in the U.S.. So I’m tracking several key recession metrics.

Housing: Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.

This graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau. Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are down 7% year-over-year. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow. An exception for this data series was the mid ‘60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.

The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates. There are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.

Yield Curve: The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator. I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).

Here is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976.

The yield curve reverted to normal in September 2024 and is currently positive at 0.54. If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming.

Heavy Truck Sales: Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2026 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: “Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”

Heavy truck sales were at 342 thousand SAAR in March, down 25% from 458 thousand SAAR in March 2025. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.

Of these indicators, only heavy truck sales is suggesting a possible recession.