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1. Three Things We’re Watching This NFL Season

The below is excerpted from our August U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor.

• Live SGP is a priority. Live betting GGR continues to grow, creeping over 40% of total GGR at some of the larger books. Football is inherently a pre-game sport, but live SGP is undoubtedly a focus a for operators; the key is making it simple to add multiple legs while a game is ongoing. One example we highlighted last month: Fanatics’ On the Clock, which presents customers with a pre-built live SGP and a countdown time to place the bet.

• Operators pay up for NFL data, grudgingly. Genius got its key official NFL data deals over the line last week with FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics signing on the dotted line—though not without some grumbling. Exact terms vary by operators and the exact package they receive but we estimate operators are paying ~6% of live GGR and 2.5% of pre-game GGR to Genius, with some hefty minimums.

• CPAs Climbing. Operators are offering up to $350 in bonus funds for new customers, though that headline amount requires customers to be active over multiple days. That structures create meaningful breakage, and actual costs are closer to half of the headline amount, but we still see a meaningful increase in acquisition costs, leading to longer customer payback periods. FanDuel, in particular, has signaled a willingness to absorb some 2026 earnings pressure to strengthen customer momentum heading into 2027.

2. Podcast: Why RMG Operators Should Be Thinking About Collectibles

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG co-founder Adam Krejcik to discuss his latest report on the collectibles sector, including:

• The massive growth of sports and Pokemon cards

• Why RMG firms should be looking for ways into the sector

• Which operators are best suited to make a collectibles play

Listen to the episode here.

3. News You May Have Missed: Operators Punch Out NFL Product Upgrades

Multiple operators have announced product upgrades ahead of the NFL season.

• FanDuel rolled out Bet Protect to NFL and implemented a sportsbook rewards program, along with more players/game stats. There was some mixed reaction on social.

• BetMGM also introduced a new Rewards hub, sped up its app and added personalization

• Caesars added bet protection, flex parlays and Squad Builder, a weekly in-app game where bettors build a seven-player roster by revealing players throughout the week.

• Underdog dropped a new game where players start with $1mm and have to hold on to it across 20 picks. It also launched RIPS, a card collecting format.

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1. Chart of the Week: Follow The PAC Money

• The chart above, taken from our latest Sports Betting Policy Monitor, shows spending by OSB PAC Win for America.

• Win For America has raised $72m this cycle, funded by DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and bet365.

• That puts gambling political spending in the same broad league as major single-issue sectors like AI and crypto, albeit at a clear second tier to both.

• State-level spending suggests a mix of offense and defense:

  • Offense: pending legalization states such as Georgia and Texas

  • Defense: already-legal markets including Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Arizona

• Georgia remains high on the industry’s expansion wishlist, with elevated pro-gambling PAC spending during the primary season.

• Despite that spending, the path to legalization remains difficult and structurally unchanged. We retain a “speculative” chance (5-30%) of Georgia launching OSB within five years.

2. Podcast: Why Hard Rock Leaped Up Our Online Casino Rankings

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG’s product testing brain trust Jimmy Neilly and Danny McCarthy to discuss:

• Why Hard Rock was the report’s big climber

• How best to add F2P games

• Who has the best customer service

Listen to the episode here.

3. Quote of the Week: RSI Getting Acquisitive?

• RSI CEO Kyle Sauers said the above at an Oppenheimer conference last week when asked how the company plans to use the ~$350mm cash on its balance sheet.

• As well as potential M&A, RSI has authorized a $100mm stock buyback and will invest behind new market launches like Alberta or any U.S. online casino states that come online this year.

• RSI has been the best-performing stock in the U.S. online gambling sector over the past two years.

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1. Three Key Product Trends Driving iCasino Success

• This week we published our 1H26 Casino App Testing report, ranking 18 U.S. casino apps

• The full report and ranks are available for download here but we outline three strategic takeaways below

  1. FTP GAMES ARE PROLIFERATING BUT THEIR VALUE IS UNCLEAR

     More online casino operators are adding free-to-play (FTP) games, but testers currently perceive them as low value.

     Fanatics is a notable exception, with testers liking the ability to win bonus currency, free spins, or merchandise that same day rather than collecting tokens for a chance to win at the end of the week. Testers value the option to pay or play their way to a guaranteed or better prize. By contrast, requiring deposits or gameplay to access the game is poorly received. Discoverability is critical, as testers may open the app specifically to play these games and want them prominently placed on the home screen.

  2. DISCOVERY FEATURES SPREAD FAST

     Game discovery has become a key area of product differentiation across online casino apps, with algorithmically surfaced game recommendations the prime example. FanDuel introduced a more overt approach with its vertically scrolling Explore page that plays game trailers.

     The feature was widely liked by testers and helped the app stand out. It was so successful that DraftKings Casino adopted effectively the same feature with its own Discover page. Hard Rock Bet put its own spin on the concept with its Discover menu, which combines popular game genres with a random game generator. Given the popularity of these game discovery mechanics, we expect to see wider adoption in the near future as operators continue looking for ways to make browsing and exploration easier.

  3. CUSTOMER SERVICE HAVING A MOMENT

     Customer service has long been a common pain point across even top operators. That may finally be changing, as it seems operators are starting to invest here. The clearest sign is how they are approaching live chat, where operators are going down one of two paths, more human or more AI. Each has tradeoffs. AI is more scalable, while humans offer judgment on trickier issues and can resolve them in a single conversation.

     BetMGM Casino posted the strongest CS score of any top operator and sits firmly in the human camp, allowing easy access to a live agent within a single message. DraftKings’ full AI-assistant chatbot drew more mixed reviews, with some testers finding it less helpful and having less patience for waiting on a chatbot than they would a person.

2. Podcast: Why Angstrom Is Investing In F2P

Host Brad Allen is joined by Angstrom director of strategy Ross Jarvis to discuss:

• The company’s new soccer predictor game

• Plans to expand it to NFL touchdown scorers

• Whether Angstrom wants to participate in prediction markets

Listen to the episode here.

3. Quote of the Week: DraftKings Believes PMs Will Never Be Cannibalistic

• DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said the above on 2Q earnings last week, doubling down on the idea that prediction markets are an incremental opportunity for the company.

• Robins said 80% to 90% of sports prediction market consumer volume in legal sportsbook states comes from pro bettors, noting there was only a 1% customer overlap.

• He added: “This is not something that we believe will ever be cannibalistic.”

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1. Chart Of The Week: Who Grew iCasino The Fastest in 2Q?

• The chart above, recreated from our latest U.S. Online Casino Market Monitor, shows estimated iCasino growth rate in 2Q26 among select operators.

• RSI stands out with estimated U.S. iCasino GGR up +33% y/y in 2Q26, outpacing bigger rivals.

• Indeed, both FanDuel and DraftKings saw slowdowns. FanDuel U.S. iCasino GGR growth hit a post-COVID low of +12% y/y in 2Q26 per our estimates. DraftKings was also in post-COVID low-point territory, with GGR +2% y/y.

• RSI’s success reflects strong execution across the board, backed by increasing marketing spend. But the 33% growth is bolstered by coming from a lower base and the addition of its monopoly in Delaware.

• Looking at just Pennsylvania where RSI is well established, it grew 2Q GGR by a more modest 17%—albeit still well clear of the big three iCasino operators.

• Fanatics is not shown in the chart above but grew at a triple digit rate from a low base.

2. Podcast: Why Are UK Betting Apps Falling Behind?

Host Brad Allen is joined by Alun Bowden to discuss EKG’s latest round of UK sportsbook app testing including:

• Why the UK is ripe for a disruptor

• Whether bet365 is slipping

• Which Tier 2 operators could challenge for the top tier

Listen to the episode here.

3. News You May Have Missed: Flutter Prefers Market-Making To Owning An Exchange

• Flutter expects to generate around $50mm in PM market-making revenue from this year and will focus its efforts there over owning its own exchange.

• Flutter generated $6m of market-making revenue in Q2 and expects that figure to ramp up quickly in the second half, driven by a focus on combo markets where it believes it has a pricing advantage.

• Outgoing CEO Peter Jackson referenced proposed rules that would limit operators from trading on their own exchanges, and said Flutter was “happy with the strategy we have” of prioritizing market-making over owning an exchange.

• More reporting from InGame here.

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1. Chart Of The Week: Kambi Clients Lead World Cup Uptime

• The chart above, taken from our latest U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor, shows live betting uptime across two key markets from the 2026 World Cup, courtesy of Bettormetrics.

• Hard Rock’s result represents a material improvement. Before the tournament, it ranked ninth among the same operators in Premier League 1x2 uptime.

• The operator integrated Kambi’s Odds Feed+ earlier this year, and the

  World Cup results suggest the upgrade helped close a meaningful live-trading gap.

• BetRivers’ first-place finish provides another positive readthrough for Kambi, whose automated trading system reportedly priced and traded the entire tournament.

• BetMGM moved in the opposite direction: its 1x2 uptime declined to 88.1% during the World Cup from 93.6% in our earlier Premier League testing.

• Across the cohort, uptime was generally high and the gaps were narrow: seven of nine operators finished between 91.6% and 92.9% average uptime.

• The tight clustering is consistent with operators treating live-market availability as a priority for the World Cup, as well as the fact soccer is a relatively automated trading product.

2. Podcast: "We're Getting Big, Fast In Prediction Markets"

Host Brad Allen is joined by White Swan Data founder Bernard Marantelli to discuss market-making on six U.S. prediction markets, including:

• Why existing market-makers have a moat against hedge funds and financial giants

• White Swan’s $4m competition for top PM traders

• How low combo hold can go

Listen to the episode here.

3. News You May Have Missed: Rush Street Seeing No Impact From PMs

• Rush Street Interactive it is still seeing minimal impact from prediction markets on its sportsbook and casino business.

• Asked about cannibalization during RSI’s Q2 earnings call on Wednesday, CFO Kyle Sauers said: “No, we haven’t seen that impact.”

• He added: “It’s also true that we probably don’t have perfect visibility into it. But I think the fact we’re not focusing on new player acquisition in sports-only markets, and we’re doing as well as we are in sports relative to our peers, probably tells you that we’re not being impacted by it a whole lot.”

• CEO Richard Schwartz also noted that RSI does not typically cater to sharp bettors—the customer segment most likely to migrate to prediction markets.

• The low impact aligns with our own research. In July’s Prediction Markets Monitor, we estimated prediction markets are currently reducing OSB handle by ~2–4% in mature, competitive states such as New Jersey.

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1. Chart Of The Week: DraftKings Casino Downloads Are Up, Will GGR Follow?

• DraftKings appears to be following through on its stated strategy

  of prioritizing casino-first acquisition and slots-led players.

• Casino app downloads have ticked up in recent months, suggesting the company has meaningfully stepped up investment in the category.

• The strategy extends beyond marketing, with continued rollout

  of features such as Flex Spins, expansion of proprietary jackpots,

  and the recent hiring of former bet365 gaming executive Christian

  Bogstrand.

• While we have yet to see those efforts translate into a material shift in GGR, we view that as unsurprising given the expected lag between acquisition and

  revenue realization, making this an area worth monitoring over the

  balance of 2026.

• The next stage of the strategy will depend less on acquisition and more on product differentiation.

• We continue to view a more distinctive slots offering as an important opportunity to improve retention and broaden appeal beyond sportsbook-led customers. That type of strategy helped FanDuel to its market-leading positioning.

2. Podcast: How Elastic Is Gambling Spend?

Host Brad Allen is joined by Optimove VP of revenue Motti Coleman to disuss new World Cup data, including:

• Why the U.S. market underperformed relative to Europe and LatAm

• Why cross-sell has been potentially underwhelming

• The impact of prediction markets

Listen to the episode here.

3. News You May Have Missed: Kalshi/OSB Crossover Ticks Up

• Kalshi continues to gain traction among sports betting users, with audience overlap rising from 1% in early 2025 to 12% by June 2026, per Sensor Tower data.
  

• Overlap with DraftKings Sportsbook specifically was 9.8% in both 1Q26 and 2Q26, up from 8.3% in 4Q25.

• The data suggests sports bettors are at least downloading Kalshi although it is unclear whether there is any revenue cannibalization.
  

• At 1Q26 earnings, some operators flagged a low-single digit impact to handle (FanDuel) or revenue (BetMGM). Others, though—including DraftKings, Caesars, and RSI—reported de minimis or even no impact.

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1. STAR PLAYERS KEEP SCORING, RISK CONCENTRATION KEEPS SOARING

• The World Cup has highlighted just how concentrated sportsbook liabilities can become around high-profile player proposition markets.

• One operator described the swings as unlike anything they had previously experienced in the U.S., with liabilities on outcomes such as a star player scoring twice running 10-20x higher than traditional match winner markets.

• The result has been unusually large short-term swings in operator revenues, with the number of high-profile goalscorers in the World Cup so far putting some strain on operator margins.

• The underlying dynamic extends well beyond soccer. We saw similar patterns emerge during the 2025 NFL season, where touchdowns from marquee players in standalone primetimegames frequently drove outsized revenue outcomes.

• As sports betting continues to penetrate more recreational audiences, wagering naturally concentrates around the sport’s biggest personalities rather than the broader player pool.

• Social media is reinforcing this trend. Millions of bettors are increasingly consuming similar betting content and same-game parlay recommendations from a relatively concentrated group of influencers, creating increasingly one-sided books. Discords ands sharable bet slips are adding yet more fuel to the fire.

• None of this changes the long-run economics of OSB operations—the mathematical edge remains firmly with operators—but it does imply that quarter-to-quarter revenue variance is likely to remain structurally higher than many investors and even some operators have historically assumed.

2. PODCAST: DOES DRAFTKINGS HAVE A RIGHT TO WIN IN PREDICTION MARKETS?

Host Brad Allen is joined by DraftKings Predictions GM Jeanine Hightower-Sellitto to discuss:

• The launch and first week of trading for DraftKings’ proprietary exchange DKeX

• DraftKings market-making plans

• Whether non-sports markets will ever match sports

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: OHIO EYES OSB BAN

• Two Ohio lawmakers have introduced a bill to ban online sports betting in the state.

• The Save Ohio Sports Act, HB 971, would limit sports betting to land-based casinos and cap stakes at $100.

• While we view the bill as unlikely to advance it is the latest sign of sports betting backlash in the Buckeye State.

• Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) has previously said he regrets signing the OH sports betting bill into law.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: DK AND 365 GO HARD ON ACQUISITION IN JUNE

• DraftKings and bet365 are separating from the field in World Cup-period acquisition, with June downloads running nearly 3x historical June averages.

• DraftKings’ sports prediction market positioning and both operators’ high value, low friction World Cup bonus offers likely helped drive the outperformance.

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1. WHAT IF EVERYONE KNOWS THE TRUE PRICE OF AN SGP?

• Sportsbooks have been scrambling to build out trading teams for prediction markets, saying they are well-positioned to exploit a big revenue opportunity thanks to their expertise in SGP pricing.

• As we showed in our prediction markets newsletter Front Running, market-making can be highly profitable—but we are wary of the second-order effects.

• The nature of the RFQ system means competitive price is key in laying parlays on PMS.

• That could create a future where the same underlying “fair” price powers two very different products: a tighter, lower-margin prediction market product competing on price, and a traditional sportsbook product, where users win less, but get money back in promos and loyalty.

• One big question: we have already heard reports of FanDuel SGP prices being “borrowed” to help price and bet RFP-style combos elsewhere.

• It is not hard to imagine a world where sharp customers begin treating exchange SGP prices as the “true” price, then selectively betting against traditional sportsbooks whenever they can find a bigger number.

• That could create meaningful margin slippage over time, especially because those customers may be difficult to identify as sharp.

2. PODCAST: HAVE PREDICTION MARKETS CHANGED OSB CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR?

Host Brad Allen is joined by FanDuel’s head of sportsbook product Jon Sadow to discuss

• World Cup fever and record-breaking handle days

• How customers are using FanDuel’s AI chat-bot builder

• Whether prediction markets have changed OSB customer behavior

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: TAX HIKE PENDING IN NC

• North Carolina lawmakers have reportedly reached an agreement to increase the tax on legal sports betting operators.

• According to WRAL, budget negotiators plan to lift the rate from 18% to 23%, although broader budget talks are still ongoing.

• There had been some hope among operators that the expansion of prediction markets would help them fight OSB tax hikes.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: THE PUBLIC IS FALLING OUT OF LOVE WITH SPORTS BETTING

• Sports betting support is weaker than ever, according to a new Overton Insights poll of ~1,400 U.S. voters.

• Just 31% of respondents expressed some form of support, compared

  to 47% opposed and 22% unsure.

• The finding is particularly relevant for Nebraska, where Tax Relief for Nebraska is on track to qualify an OSB legalization measure for this November’s ballot.

• That campaign is backed by many of the same operators behind Missouri’s narrow 2024 ballot measure win.

• If this poll is indicative of current voter sentiment, Nebraska’s measure faces a harsher environment than recent campaigns.

• However, local proponents remain optimistic, saying their polling shows 70% support for the OSB measure.

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1. IS HIGH SPORTS BETTING HOLD KILLING CASINO CROSS-SELL?

• Online table games have experienced a clear slowdown in growth in recent months, per Pennsylvania data.

• Online table game handle is down 2.6% y/y for the three months through April 26, while slots handle is up 11.4% in the same time period.

• The slowdown is particularly concentrated in sportsbook-led brands, suggesting there may be some impact from the ongoing shift toward higher OSB hold and lower promotional intensity.

• In other words, customers only have so much gambling spend in their wallet, and they are losing it on the sportsbook.

• If sustained, the trend could intensify competition for casino-first customers as operators seek to offset pressure on a historically important cross-sell channel.

• That would place greater strategic value on direct casino acquisition and retention—an area where FanDuel has increasingly separated itself from peers in recent years but where DraftKings has pledged to catch up fast.

2. PODCAST: BET365’S BETSLIP SLOT IS A GAMECHANGER

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG analyst Alun Bowden to discuss a grab-bag of recent industry news, including:

• Bet365’s new bet-slip slot

• More changes in the FanDuel SLT

• The potential for perpetual futures on sports teams and players

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: FANDUEL KEEPS ROLLING OUT AI BETBOT

• FanDuel’s AceAI chatbot is now live for around 100% of customers, handling 158,000 requests since launch.

• The bot lets customers research stats and build bets through prompts such as: “Build me a parlay of all MLB favorites”.

• FanDuel said the bot was a “complete re-imagination” of the betting experience.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: FANATICS ICASINO TRENDING UP

• The chart above, taken from our latest U.S. Online Casino Market Monitor, shows online casino GGR share among the second tier of operators, after the triopoly of FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM.

• GGR share at Fanatics has risen above 5% in the T3M, positioning the

  brand to challenge Caesars nationally, as elevated promotional intensity and consistently improving product drive gains.

• For its part, Caesars has maintained a steady GGR share despite relatively lighter promo spend.

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1. WHAT DO OUR APP RANKINGS SAY ABOUT FUTURE MARKET SHARE?

• Our sportsbook app rankings, published this month to Enterprise subscribers, have historically shown a correlation with future market share.

• So what can we learn from the latest round of results? DraftKings topped FanDuel for the fourth consecutive report, suggesting the share

  gap between the two may continue to narrow throughout 2026.

• Fanatics also locked down third place for the fourth straight report, reinforcing the idea that its ongoing share gains—GGR and NGR—are no mirage. The FanCash rewards system in particular resonates strongly with customers, as does a very fast app and in-play experience.

• Fanatics has been catching and equalling BetMGM in nationwide share in recent months, and that trend looks set to continue, with the BetMGM app down at eighth place in our rankings.

• Two other key things to note. First a surprise: bet365 slipped one spot to sixth. Several testers raised concerns around the product’s overall look and feel—an area the operator will need to rectify fast as it continues spending aggressively in key states like Michigan (more on that below).

• Elsewhere, Caesars ranked fourth, suggesting it could capture more share—but its restrained spending looks unlikely to change any time soon as the Tilman Fertitta acquisition plays out.

2. PODCAST: RANKING THE BEST U.S. SPORTSBOOKS

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG product testing gurus Jimmy Neilly and Danny McCarthy to discuss their latest round of OSB app testing, including:

• A slip for bet365

• What Sporttrade’s results tell us about prediction market product

• A tight contest between FanDuel and DraftKings

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: MA SPORTSBOOKS MUST EXPLAIN LIMITS

• From Monday, Massachusetts sportsbooks have to tell individual bettors why they have been limited. The rule applies retroactively meaning customers who have been limited in the past will also get explanations.

• Operator data showed less than 1% of customers received restrictions and they were usually applied to players who beat the closing line.

• Initial messaging seemed boilerplate rather than specific, prompting some pushback from customers.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: BET365 GOES BIG IN MI

• The chart above, taken from out latest U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor, shows promo spend for OSB operators the month they launched in Michigan.

• Bet365 launched in the state on 17th of April 2026, but still dished out $27mm in promo spend—more than 4x higher than any other operator in their respective launch months.

• The outlay reflects both bet365’s ongoing aggression in the U.S. market, but also the acquisition economics of dual OSB/iCasino states.

• For comparison, bet365 had a $3.61 promo spend/adult in MI in April, ahead of its previous record of $3.14 it set when it launched in Missouri in December of last year.

• Promo spend in OH launch month was $1.83 /adult back in Jan ‘23, highlighting the material increase in aggression since then.

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1. PREDICTION MARKETS ARE (INADVERTENTLY) HELPING SPORTSBOOKS FIGHT TAX HIKES

The following is excerpted from our latest U.S. Sports Betting Policy Monitor, sent to clients last week.

• Prediction markets are bringing one unlikely benefit for sports betting firms—helping to fight tax hikes.

• DraftKings said this month the conversation with states around OSB taxes had been “a little easier” this year.

• “States are a little bit more hesitant to make a change that might inhibit their ability to be competitive against the federal product,” said DraftKings CFO Alan Ellingson, at a MoffettNathanson conference.

• “Its very difficult to unwind a tax increase, but not that hard to wait another 2, 3 or 5 or 10 years to raise the taxes while there is this uncertainty,” he added.

• While operators often lean optimistic about the legislative outlook—publicly at least—this dynamic looks to be playing out already.

• Michigan’s online gambling tax increase proposal initially looked a good bet to pass, but is losing momentum, per our channel checks.

• Sources point to increasing partisanship in the legislature and the emergence of sports prediction markets.

• It’s perhaps a small silver lining, given the impact of PMs on OSB share prices, but a silver lining nevertheless.

2. PODCAST: IS IT FINALY TIME FOR F1 BETTING TO SHINE?

Host Brad Allen is joined by Formula 1’s head of betting Mark Wrigley to discuss:

• Why F1 has historically underperformed as a betting product

• What new markets will be rolled out this season

• Why F1 partnered with Alt Sports over bigger data providers

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED:

• Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has been vocal about his regret over sports betting legalization, and doubled down on those comments this week.

• DeWine said his biggest mistake in office was signing the sports betting bill into law in December 2021, per the Ohio Capital Journal.

• “What I did not anticipate—and I should have—is the massive, massive amount of money that these gambling companies would come in and flood the airways,” he said. “More Ohioans are gambling and losing money, and athletes are being abused online as a result of sports betting.”

4. THIS WEEKS NUMBER TO KNOW: SOCCER BETTING BONANZA

• Above is our base case for 2026 soccer World Cup betting handle in the U.S.

• Our forecast comes with wide error bars because of the impact of a potential run from the U.S. Men’s National Team (USMNT), but our base case assumes they advance from the group stage before exiting in either the Round of 32 or Round of 16.

• This year’s World Cup is likely to significantly surpass the 2022 tournament from a betting perspective. Based on operator channel checks, we estimate the 2022 World Cup generated approximately $900mm-$1bn in U.S. OSB handle.

• The 2026 tournament benefits from a materially stronger setup, including an expanded match slate (104 matches vs. 64 in 2022), a larger footprint of legalized OSB states, a more mature and competitive operator ecosystem, a more favorable summer sports calendar, and, most importantly, a tournament hosted on home soil featuring the USMNT.

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1. MORE FREE SPINS, LESS BONUS ABUSE

The following is excerpted from our latest U.S. Online Casino Market Monitor, sent to clients last week.

• DraftKings last week at 1Q26 results talked up its new Flex Spins feature. It replaces bonus cash and essentially allows users to use their free spins on more than 100 different game rather than the more typical limited range.

• The rationale is three-pronged: less bonus abuse, lower costs, and a broader strategic emphasis on slots.

• As DraftKings CEO Jason Robins put it: “I think we overly focused on OSB cross-sell and did not focus enough on the iCasino-first, particularly the slots-first player. We really increased our focus in the last several months there. One example of that is Flex Spins.”

• The shift is happening across the industry: more focus on slots and increasingly efficient bonusing.

• The headline bonus offer on many tier-one sites is now 1,000 or 1,500 free spins, often spread across several days—or as long as 30 days in the case of DraftKings.

• These are subtle but meaningful changes in generosity, designed to mitigate the widespread bonus abuse present in the U.S. market while supporting EBITDA margins.

• It all reflects a rapidly maturing market in which growth is slowing and profit optimization is the new North Star.

2. PODCAST: SOCCER WORLD CUP: ACQUISITION BONANZA OR EMPTY CALORIES?

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG analyst Alun Bowden and Optimove VP of revenue Motti Coleman to discuss the upcoming soccer World Cup, including:

• Are the customers actually valuable?

• How can US sportsbooks keep customers after the tournament

• The competition with prediction markets

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: MINNESOTA AIMS TO BAN PMS

• A proposal to ban prediction markets in Minnesota is headed to Gov. Tim Walz’s desk after passing both houses in the legislature this week.

• The bill had healthy support in both houses but opponents anticipate lawsuits over the potential legislation.

• “We’re going to see no gain for the public,” said Rep. Nolan West, R-Blaine, per MPRNews. “We’re going to see massive losses in our litigation costs related to losing a case against the federal government, and we’re going to take away something that thousands of Minnesotans already do.”

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: RSI AHEAD OF THE PACK

• The chart above shows online casino NGR growth in 1Q26 among select public operators.

• Rush Street Interactive paces the field with 28% growth. RSI was also a notable acquisition outlier, pairing outsized MAU growth (+46% y/y) while still leading the peer group in ARPMAU ($317).

• As noted in module 1, DraftKings felt it underperformed on iCasino in 1Q26 and expects a turnaround with a renewed focus on slots players.

• For FanDuel, iCasino was the strongest part of the business in 1Q, growing at 19%, while also holding the largest market share of NGR at ~25%.

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1. COULD PMs SWOOP FOR AN OSB?

The following is excerpted from our latest U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor, sent to clients last week

• One idea floating around industry circles: prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket should acquire an online sportsbook while their respective valuations are at opposite ends of the spectrum (Kalshi confirmed a raise at $22bn this week).

• The logic: if the U.S. Supreme Court or a new administration strikes down sports event contracts, the regulated sports betting (RMOG) side of the business becomes the golden asset.

• It’s not a bad idea in theory, but execution is littered with obstacles. State regulators would need to approve such a deal— every single one—and

  some may use their considerable discretion to simply say no to a

  PM-OSB combination.

• Then there’s the valuation problem: would OSBs sell at these levels? And who exactly is selling for Kalshi or Polymarket paper right now?

• Indeed, DraftKings and FanDuel are already pursuing the super app model and RMOG operators are arguably far better positioned to get one license for a nationally-regulated products than PMs are to navigate 50-state regulatory maze.

2. PODCAST: IS THE REIGN OF FANDUEL OVER?

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG analyst Alun Bowden and Betr head of gaming Alex Ursa to discuss:

• The departure of FanDuel CEO Amy Howe

• FanDuel’s predictions market strategy

• How the operator can restore its sportsbook market lead

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: BET PROTECT+ OFF TO A HOT START

• Flutter said at Q1 earnings that FanDuel’s Bet Protect+ has been well-received by users, with uptake double their internal expectations.

• The company said the feature was a key part of its sportsbook turnaround plans and could be made available to users in its rewards program, which was partially launched in April and currently being rolled out fully.

• The core idea of the feature is improving the player/operator relationship so it feels less adversarial and more like a level playing field.

• Anything that increases that level of trust is a positive in our view, even it comes with some potential problems for trading as they figure out how to price players who are prone to injury.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: FANATICS REELS IN BETMGM

• The chart above shows OSB NGR in a selection of states—including Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—since the start of 2024.

• Fanatics is closing on BetMGM for the no. 3 position behind FanDuel and DraftKings. Recent gains coincide with rising hold and declining promo intensity—plus a product that consistently ranks top 3 in our testing.

• In fact, March-26 was Fanatics’ sixth consecutive month of OSB promo decline, with trackable spending -42% y/y, helping bolster NGR.

• BetMGM at the same time has been increasing promo spend (3M promo:NGR ratio of 74%, well above its T12M average (54%)) as part of what appears to have been a Super Bowl-March Madness period push.

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1. CHART OF THE WEEK: KALSHI IS A TOP 5 SPORTS OPERATOR

The following is excerpted from our Prediction Markets Monitor, the foundational report of our newly launched prediction markets subscription research offering.

• The chart above shows U.S. prediction market activity relative to online sportsbooks on a handle-comparable basis for March 2026.

• Over that month Kalshi is the fourth-largest operator on an adjusted per-adult basis, behind only DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, per our estimates.

• We derive a PM sports handle-comparable—which we call Handle-Analog—through a combination of daily positive changes in open interest (ΔOI), daily execution prices, and resolution-day activity patterns evaluated across tens of millions of market-level data points.

• Kalshi’s rise up our leaderboard has been swift. In the T12M view (not shown above), Kalshi was ranked ninth, with its adjusted handle-per-adult value running at just 7.5% of leader DraftKings’.

• An important caveat. Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket U.S. adjusted handle-per-adult figures reflect both organic activity and partner-driven volume (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase, Underdog, PrizePicks, DraftKings) and are therefore not strictly comparable to standalone OSB operators.

• Handle is also not revenue.

• U.S. sports prediction markets have scaled to an estimated ~$2bn in monthly Handle-Analog, representing 11% of combined U.S. OSB handle and PM Handle-Analog as of March 2026, per our estimates.
  

• For CY26 as a whole, we project U.S. Handle-Analog to rise to ~$34bn, which would represent ~20% of T12M U.S. OSB handle.

The full, 48-page Prediction Markets Monitor is available for purchase here. Contact Simon Krejcik (skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com) for prediction markets research plans and pricing.

2. PODCAST: WHY PARLAYS NEED AN OVERHAUL

Host Brad Allen is joined by Betlabs CEO Johnny Coetzer to discuss dynamic/flex parlays, including:

• Why the current parlay model needs a change

• Who currently leads the US market leader on flex parlays

• Why operators should consider giving margin back to players

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: FANATICS EXTENDS LOYALTY PROGRAM TO PM

• Fanatics is extending its loyalty program Fanatics ONE to its prediction market users.

• Fanatics ONE is the best loyalty program in the OSB industry per our testing, so its roll-out to Fanatics Markets could be a big deal—providing PM users get the same level of generosity as OSB users.

• Fanatics also recently added combos to its PM product.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK PART TWO: RSI KEEPS TRUCKING

• The chart above shows relative share performance over the last two years for five U.S. focused gaming stocks.

• Rush Street Interactive (the blue line) is far and away the top performer, up 185% in the past two years, ahead of second place Flutter, up 30% in the same time period.

• DKNG is down around 45% in the same timeframe.

• RSI climbed another 22% this week after a strong Q1 performance that emphasized its resiliency to prediction market pressures thanks to its emphasis on iGaming.

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1. CHAET OF THE WEEK: FANATICS PUSHES ITS CASINO CHIPS IN

The following is excerpted from our most recent U.S. Online Casino Market Monitor.

• The chart above shows online casino Promo:NGR ratios over the last two years.

• Fanatics stands out with its aggressive promo posture, giving out nearly 60% of its NGR as bonuses.

• Fanatics has also launched its first major above-the-line casino campaign in recent weeks, built around the slogan “the house always rewards” and emphasizing generosity and loyalty as core differentiators.

• Featuring Taraji P. Henson, the creative leans into a female-skewed, casino-first positioning that echoes FanDuel’s earlier efforts to broaden the category beyond its sports-heavy roots.

• The approach reflects shared executive lineage tied to Sky Vegas, where a casino-led identity helped scale beyond traditional sportsbook audiences.

• While not a direct copy, both Fanatics and FanDuel appear to be adapting elements of that playbook for the U.S. market.

• The more notable point: few other operators are leaning into this positioning.

• As the sector shifts toward margin optimization, Fanatics’ focus on loyalty and perceived generosity—paired with a less-contested female audience—could offer a differentiated path to acquisition and retention.

2. PODCAST: WHY VC’S ARE BETTING BIG ON ONLINE CASINO

Host Brad Allen is joined by Aaron Miller, principal at early-stage VC fund Will Ventures, to discuss:

• Why VCs have historically ignored online casino and why that’s set to change

• How he would invest $100m across OSB, online casino and prediction markets

• How AI Live Dealer could change the sector

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: BET365 STAYS EXPANSIVE

• Bet365 has expressed an interest in a Massachusetts sports betting license, per the state regulator.

• The state has now reopened the application process for the operator.

• It’s an interesting pivot from bet365 which started, then dropped, a MA license application in 2023 amid concerns about the profitability of the market.

4. THIS WEEK’S NUMBER TO NOTICE

• That’s our new forecast for 2030 online casino and poker GGR, representing a 5-year CAGR of 9.9%.

• That’s up slightly from our previous 8% CAGR forecast.

• Why? The uptick reflects increased optimism around new-state expansion, including Virginia and recently legalized Maine. New states now account for 7% of cumulative GGR to 2030.

• Florida is also considered a plausible launch candidate, though we do not anticipate iCasino launches in any of California, Texas, or New York during the

  CY26-30 window

  Our full set of OSB and online casino market projections is available to clients.

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1. THE CASINO-FICATION OF SPORTS BETTING

The following is excerpted from our March 2026 U.S. Online Casino Market Monitor, sent to clients last week.

• While iCasino legislation remains a slow burn, operators are increasingly finding legal pathways to introduce casino-style gaming within existing frameworks.

• The development connects directly to two themes from our G2E 2025 presentation: 1) the casino-ification of OSB product in the broader absence of iCasino,and 2) U.S. online gambling product more generally bending toward slot-like mechanics.

• In Oregon, DraftKings launched DK Replay, allowing customers to bet on historical Major League Baseball results.

• The Oregon Lottery has approved the format, albeit with some changes—like slowing down gameplay to more accurately reflect a real baseball game. And the expansion path is increasingly clear.

• If historical NASCAR betting has been deployed by Hard Rock in Florida (via its compact), and baseball in Oregon (approved by the Oregon Lottery), other sports also appear viable.

• A similar trend is emerging via Sportradar’s new “hybrid” games platform Playradar (e.g., Golf Prediction, Soccer Roulette), which blend sports mechanics with casino-style gameplay.

• In aggregate, the industry is moving toward casino-style experiences built on sports scaffolding and historical results.

• For RMG operators, long pressured by regulatory arbitrage (e.g., DFS+ and prediction markets), this represents a potential avenue to push an edge of their own.

2. PODCAST: DOES ANYONE KNOW WHAT A PM CUSTOMER IS WORTH?

Host Brad Allen is joined by Gambling.com Group CEO Charles Gillespie to discuss:

• Why Charles and his exec team have been buying back stock in GDCG

• Why affiliate isn’t a dirty word

• Trying to establish the value of a prediction markets customer

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: BETFAIR LAUNCHES PREDICTION MARKET BETA

• Flutter is beta testing a new prediction market product called Betfair Predicts.

• The product is available to select UK customers and is essentially a re-skinned version of the Betfair Exchange.

• Flutter said the launch was a response to customer demand and the future of the platform would be guided by customer response.

• Three of the UK’s exchange operators have now pledged to launch some kind of prediction market, with Betfair taking after Matchbook and Smarkets.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: ONLINE CASINO FRAGMENTATION

• The chart above, also taken from our recently published U.S. Online Casino Monitor, shows online casino share over the past four years.

• Among our key takeaways: the “triopoly” GGR share of the big three is softening, with each of FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM ticking down in 1Q26.

• Tier 2 operators BetRivers and Caesars maintain mid-to-high single-digit share positions as Fanatics continues its steady climb, approaching 5%.

• The recent climb in “other” has been driven by Hard Rock and bet365.

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Sponsor message: Discover what’s shaping the future of sports betting with Kambi’s 2025 Sports Betting Trends Report. Leveraging data from one of the world’s largest betting networks, the report delivers exclusive insights into bet builder, player props and more to keep you ahead of the curve in a fast-moving market.

1. TIME FOR ROBIN HOOD COPYCATS?

The following is excerpted from our March 2026 U.S. Sports Betting Sports Market Monitor, sent to clients last week.

• Robinhood has been one of the biggest winners from the prediction market boom, and is run-rating at >$400mm annualized revenue from predictions.

• Though its importance to Kalshi is declining, its success is turning heads. We believe operators could look to replicate the financial super app model: sports predictions, stocks and crypto on a single platform and wallet.

• If nothing else, the all-in-one approach has supported materially higher valuation multiples than online gambling peers (Robinhood EV/revenue currently at 14.5x, vs. Flutter (1.7x) and DraftKings (2.1x).

• The wallet value of these financial super apps is multiples higher than betting alone, per channel checks.

• The concept could bring M&A into play, with operators looking at brokerage-style platforms with scale. Think Webull ($2.7bn market cap) or Public.com (private, valued at $1.2bn).

• OSB operators are a little hamstrung on the M&A front at present thanks to depressed valuations, but DraftKings—with over $1bn cash on hand—could feasibly find the firepower for such a deal.

• The strategic logic of bolting a brokerage onto its already-planned super app is intriguing, in our view.

2. PODCAST: THE END OF THE UK AS A GLOBAL GAMBLING HUB?

Host Brad Allen is joined by Alun Bowden and former Flutter/Evoke exec Vaughan Lewis to discuss:

• The implementation of 40% Remote Gaming Duty in the UK

• Whether there’s any hope of a rollback

• Why top talent is already leaving the market

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: FANDUEL TIGHTENS FOCUS

• FanDuel has made a couple of key changes to sharpen its focus in light of a falling share price and tightening OSB leadership.

• Last week it announced plans to shutter FanDuel TV, the former TVG racing channel, and to close Picks, its DFS+ offering.

• Resources will be reallocated to other areas of the business, FanDuel said.

4. CHART OF THE WEEK: THE FRAGMENTATION OF UK CASINO

• The chart above, taken from our latest UK Online Gambling Monitor, shows the declining market share of the UK iCasino market held by the big five operators (Flutter, Entertain, Bet365, Intralot, Evoke).

• The decline is not shared equally among those operators, with Evoke likely the biggest contributor to the in the quarter.

• But the trend is clear: higher-value players are spreading their spend across a larger number of operators.

• The readthrough for the U.S. market: casino is commoditized and over time trends towards fragmentation over consolidation.

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Sponsor message: Discover what’s shaping the future of sports betting with Kambi’s 2025 Sports Betting Trends Report. Leveraging data from one of the world’s largest betting networks, the report delivers exclusive insights into bet builder, player props and more to keep you ahead of the curve in a fast-moving market.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: A SURPRISE NCAAB LIVE BETTING LEADER?

The following is excerpted from our March 2026 U.S. Sports Betting Sports Market Monitor, sent to clients this week.

• The table above shows live betting KPIs for moneyline betting for the first two rounds of March Madness 2026: 50 games, tracked by Bettormetrics.

• Hard Rock leads all operators in uptime for the second consecutive year, though the more interesting story is what’s happening beneath that headline number.

• Its shading time (which can also be thought of as off-market time) jumped from just 2% in 2025 to over 11% in 2026. That likely reflects the implementation of internal pricing models rather than a more generic feed and an overall investment in live product.

• BetMGM was a standout in the opposite direction. Uptime has fallen 17pp to lowest in the market, a deterioration that raises questions about the trajectory of its live betting product.

• Finally bet365 also looks to have updated its pricing strategy to be more in-line with competitors. In 2025 it was off-market nearly 20% of the time; this year that figure is closer to 11%, which is still high but no longer outlandish.

2. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: FANATICS FIRES UP SQUAD BETS

• Fanatics has launched a new parlay feature called Squad Bets, where customers pick a team of players to hit a statistical target.

• By example, someone could pick five NBA players to combine for 100 points in a given night.

• The product is reminiscent of Squad Bets on Sky Bet in the UK, which was launched in December—and to relatively little fanfare.

3. CHART OF THE WEEK PART TWO: THE NEW ERA OF BONUS DISCIPLINE

• The chart above, also excerpted from our U.S. Sports Betting Market Monitor, shows promo spend for OSB operators in select states for February ‘26 v February ‘25.

• Spend is down across the board signaling confidence in underlying demand and a continued focus on profit over volume.

• Only two operators in our data set increased promo spend in February ‘26 y/y—Caesars and BetRivers—and that was partially a function of coming from a low base in ‘25.

• Fanatics and theScore Bet (formerly ESPNBet) were the biggest decliners, down 62% and 55% respectively.

• The reduced promo spend has had a knock-on effect on handle, down ~5% y/y in the above states.
  

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Sponsor message: Discover what’s shaping the future of sports betting with Kambi’s 2025 Sports Betting Trends Report. Leveraging data from one of the world’s largest betting networks, the report delivers exclusive insights into bet builder, player props and more to keep you ahead of the curve in a fast-moving market.

1. MARCH MADNESS HANDLE TO DROP AGAIN?

The following is excerpted from our 2026 March Madness flash note sent to clients this week.

• We project $2.57bn in March Madness handle for 2026, down 1.7% y/y, even after the addition of Missouri (launched Dec. 2025). On a same-state basis, handle falls 4.6% y/y, reflecting the low-to-flat growth environment in the maturing U.S. market.

• The softness is visible even in major states: New York (-1%), Nevada (-1%), and New Jersey (-22%). New Jersey’s outsized decline reflects recent double-digit handle drops and a tough comp from last year’s East Regional Final hosting bump.

• Prediction markets will be big, but cannibalization appears limited. We project PMs to generate ~$2.3bn in handle-equivalent volume (~90% of regulated markets). Operators attributed recent handle softness to bet-mix shifts, reduced promos, and strong hold limiting bettor recycling—not PM competition.

• Parlays will account for ~36% of MM handle (~$929mm), up ~5pp y/y. Live betting is estimated at ~45% of handle, with DraftKings expected to approach 50% of live handle, backed by its SimpleBet-powered infrastructure and Bettormetrics-measured 92.5% uptime.

• Watch FanDuel’s promo strategy. After pulling back injury-protection promos in 4Q25 and losing share, we expect FanDuel to come out aggressive with promos for the tournament. Warning to the sector: if FanDuel ramps up, rivals will likely follow.

2. PODCAST: HIRE SOME 24 YEAR-OLDS AND COPY STAKE.COM?

Host Brad Allen is joined by Alun Bowden and Optimove VP of revenue Motti Coleman to discuss the state of the online gambling industry in 2026, including:

• Why firms need to hire from Gen-Z

• Why loyalty programs are now a must-have

• How to keep customers coming back as RTPs keep falling

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: MONITORING THE SITUATION

• Polymarket has unveiled its latest marketing stunt: a bar in Washington DC called the Situation Room.

• TVs will focus not on sports but instead on live X feeds, flight radar, Bloomberg terminals, and Polymarket screens.

• Polymarket also opened a charitable pop-up grocery store in NYC this year.

4. KENTUCKY EYES MINIMUM BET LEGISLATION

• An amendment proposed to Kentucky’s HB 904 would require sports betting operators to accept wagers up to $1,000 (with select exceptions) and notify bettors within 24 hours of any account limit being applied.

• The move reflects growing scrutiny around the practice of limiting bettors; Massachusetts recently finalized a first-of-its-kind notification requirement rule.

• Our take: The $1k acceptance requirement is unlikely to proceed, but the notification rule has a better chance of making it through.

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Sponsor message: Discover what’s shaping the future of sports betting with Kambi’s 2025 Sports Betting Trends Report. Leveraging data from one of the world’s largest betting networks, the report delivers exclusive insights into bet builder, player props and more to keep you ahead of the curve in a fast-moving market.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: DRAFTKINGS CASINO COMEBACK?

The following is excerpted from our latest U.S. Online Casino Monitor.

• The chart above shows casino app downloads in 1Q26 through February vs. 1Q25.

• DraftKings is leading early-2026 download growth off an already strong base.

• Downloads are just one of several KPIs suggesting a potential reversal in the brand’s relative 2024/25 decline. By our estimates, DraftKings has lost roughly 4pp of GGR share over the past 24 months, falling to ~22%.

• But recent indicators are better. Downloads are up, DraftKings ranked No. 1 in our product testing for the fourth consecutive report, and NGR share is stabilizing amid rational-looking bonusing levels (we est. 31% promo:NGR in CY25, down 4pp vs. CY24).

• We also see upside from slots. The company gets 73% of GGR from slots at present, per our estimates, the second-lowest mark among the eight leading U.S. operators—in part because of the strength of its in-house content like DK Rocket.

• That 73% figure is likely to rise as the company continues its shift toward a more FanDuel-like, slots-forward strategy and product UX.

• Bottom line: the arrow is pointing back up for DraftKings Casino.

2. PODCAST: WHERE HAS THE OSB HANDLE GONE?

Host Brad Allen is joined by former Betfair/FanDuel exec and current HoldCrunch CEO Tom Johnson to discuss:

• Whether prediction markets are cannibalizing sportsbook handle

• Whether the Flutter sell-off is overdone

• What makes an elite prediction market product

Listen to the episode here.

3. NEWS NUGGET YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: SMARKETS FILES FOR CFTC LICENSES

• Smarkets this week filed applications with the CFTC for DCM and DCO licenses, according to CEO Jason Trost.

• Trost said Smarkets will compete in the U.S. with a hybrid model: a familiar sportsbook interface built on exchange pricing. The company expects to go live by end-2026.

4. HOW AI WILL DISRUPT THE ONLINE GAMBLING VALUE CHAIN

The below is excerpted from EKG Partner Emeritus Chris Grove’s presentation at NEXT this week. Full slides here.

• AI is no longer a sideshow. It is becoming part of the baseline consumer experience, and gambling operators will have to adapt.

• Near term, that means higher expectations for always-on customer service, AI-driven discovery.

• Operators should also expect more AI-enabled bonus abuse and light fraud.

• Soon enough, consumers will speak in prompts and use AI throughout the conversion journey, making conventional UX feel dated faster than many operators expect.

• AI is also collapsing barriers to entry. Platform work, targeting, payments, anti-fraud tooling, and content deployment are all getting cheaper and easier.

• Put simply: launching an online casino is becoming cheaper, faster, and easier.

• That pressure extends to suppliers. More of what they historically provided can now be built faster and more cheaply, while operators have stronger incentives to in-house where they can.

• The supplier model is not dead. But the break-even line is moving, and suppliers will need to be both better and cheaper to defend their place in the stack.

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