Key factors, influencing the market in August 2026:

August 2026 was defined by renewed Middle East escalation, very low Hormuz transit, and a market that stayed tight despite weak demand, especially from China.

Supply developments

• The key factor in August was the continued impairment of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, which kept physical flows below pre-war levels and added a sizeable risk premium to prices.

• According to the IEA, the global supply was now forecast to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with growth from the Americas only partly offsetting losses in the Middle East and Russia.

• At the same time, floating and onshore inventories were being drawn down sharply: analysts estimated roughly 300 million fewer barrels readily available since mid-July as tankers and storage were depleted.

• OPEC+ completed its planned rollback of voluntary cuts by announcing a 188,000 barrels-per-day increase for September, but with Hormuz constrained, much of that increase remained theoretical in terms of actual delivered barrels.

Demand by region

Demand in August was hit by high prices, limited product availability, and structural weakness in China.

• Asia bore the largest demand hit, with naphtha and gasoil most affected and China’s import cuts acting as a key balancing force.

• China’s crude imports had fallen sharply since the war began, with roughly 400 million fewer barrels bought compared with the same period a year earlier, reflecting weaker refining runs, a fuel-export ban, and growing electric transport adoption.

• In Europe, aviation and transport demand were pressured by suspended Gulf routes and elevated jet-fuel costs.

• In the U.S. and other OECD markets, higher retail fuel prices and tight distillate balances kept consumption cautious even as some inventory builds were recorded in August.

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• bp increases stake in Calypso gas project. bp agreed to acquire Woodside Energy’s 70% interest in Block TTDAA 14, the Calypso gas project in Trinidad and Tobago, increasing bp’s stake to 100% and assuming operatorship. Calypso is an early-stage deepwater natural gas project offshore Trinidad and Tobago, where bp has an established business and extensive oil and gas infrastructure. bp is the largest supplier of gas to the domestic market and has a 45% stake in the Atlantic LNG facility off Trinidad’s southwest coast.

• bp awarded Loran Phase 2 licence in Venezuela. bp and the Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela signed agreements to advance offshore gas development, including the award of an exploration and production licence for Phase 2 of the Loran field in the Plataforma Deltana area. Loran Phase 2 contains an estimated 4 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas resources. bp has been granted the licence for Loran Phase 2 in partnership with XRG, ADNOC’s international energy investment company, and UCC Oil and Gas Holding LLC, with each party holding an equal working interest share. bp will operate the development.

• TotalEnergies Completes the Transfer of its 10% Interest in Arctic LNG 2. TotalEnergies confirms that the transfer of its 10% interest in Arctic LNG 2 to NordLine (a Novatek subsidiary) has been completed. TotalEnergies is therefore no longer a shareholder in Arctic LNG 2. As part of the transfer agreement, TotalEnergies retains its rights to be reimbursed by Arctic LNG 2 for its share of the loans provided by the shareholders to the project, for an amount of around US$ 1.3 billion. Such reimbursement might be implemented in the future subject to applicable sanctions.

• Chevron makes new discovery in Sub‑Saharan Africa. Chevron Corporation by its subsidiary Cabinda Gulf Oil Company Limited (CABGOC) confirmed an oil and gas condensate discovery at the 105-4X exploration well in Block 0, offshore Angola. The well, drilled in the prolific Lower Congo Basin, encountered an oil and gas condensate column of more than 600 meters (2,000 feet) in the primary Pinda reservoir, with more than 90 meters (300 feet) of net pay in excellent reservoir quality. The discovery will be assessed for potential development as a tie-back to Chevron’s existing facilities nearby, enabling a capital-efficient path to production.

• Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi join forces to search for Norway’s next major discoveries. Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi are establishing a strategic exploration collaboration to pursue some of the largest remaining opportunities on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). The aim is to increase the chances of major discoveries that can support new standalone field developments and long-term value creation. The companies have agreed to combine expertise, data, technology and exploration capacity to pursue selected high impact exploration opportunities. Over the next four to five years, the companies plan to mature and test a portfolio of approximately 20–25 exploration opportunities, with an ambition to drill around five high impact exploration wells annually.

• Equinor joins Chevron in Namibia exploration licence. Equinor has signed an agreement with Harmattan Energy Limited, a Chevron subsidiary in Namibia, to acquire a 17.4% participating interest in Petroleum Exploration Licence 90 (PEL 90) in the Orange Basin offshore Namibia. The transaction marks Equinor’s entry into Namibia and the licence provides access to a drill-ready prospect scheduled for testing in 2026.

• ADNOC, SLB Deploy AI Platform Across Over 120 Drilling Rigs to Strengthen Upstream Performance. AI-enabled Real-Time Operations Center connects the rigs and provides ADNOC’s engineers a real-time view of drilling operations. Deployment enables engineers to oversee up to three times more rigs and helps to avoid up to two days of downtime. Technology developed in the UAE with critical operational information securely stored in a UAE data centre to strengthen resilience.

Downstream & retail:

• bp completes sale of Gelsenkirchen refinery. bp has completed the sale of Gelsenkirchen refinery and related businesses to Klesch Group. The transaction supports bp’s continued focus on disciplined capital allocation and is also expected to lower underlying operating expenditure by around $1 billion. Based on historical performance, the transaction is free cash flow accretive and transfers the associated assets and liabilities to Klesch Group.

• Shell to more than double US company-owned convenience retail sites with acquisition of Tri Star Energy. Equilon Enterprises LLC, doing business as Shell Oil Products US (Shell), signed an agreement to increase its equity from 33% to 100% in Tri Star Energy, LLC, a convenience store operator and fuel distributor operating across the southeastern United States and anchored in the Nashville market. The acquisition makes Shell the full owner of an additional 320 fuel and convenience retail sites in Tennessee and surrounding states, as well as supply agreements with 552 more dealer-owned locations.

Trading & Logistics:

• Equinor and Uniper sign 15-year gas sales agreement for supplies to Germany. Equinor and the energy company Uniper have signed a 15-year agreement for supplies of natural gas to Germany. Under the agreement, Equinor will deliver more than 30 TWh (ca. 2.8 billion cubic metres) of natural gas per year to Uniper. Supplies under the new agreement will be from 1 January 2027 to 31 December 2041 with the gas delivered at Trading Hub Europe, the German gas market area. Pricing will reflect market terms, while other commercial details are confidential between the parties.

• Equinor and ORLEN strengthen energy partnership with crude oil agreement. Equinor has signed an agreement with Poland’s ORLEN for the sale of crude oil from the Johan Sverdrup field on the Norwegian continental shelf. The agreement will run for three years from the beginning of September. Annual supplies under the agreement will be from 5 million tonnes to over 9 million tonnes. Further commercial terms are confidential between the parties. The agreement also allows for the possibility of supplying other crude grades produced from fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

Energy Transition:

• TotalEnergies Acquires Shell’s Renewables Business. TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Shell to acquire its entire onshore renewables business in Europe, including 500 MW of solar and wind assets in operation or under construction, mainly located in Italy and the Netherlands, and a 3.5 GW pipeline of solar, wind and battery storage projects in Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain. This transaction complements TotalEnergies’ power generation activities in these four key markets for the deployment of its Integrated Power strategy in Europe, in particular its European renewables asset portfolio, which amounts to nearly 10 GW of gross installed capacity or capacity under construction and 27 GW under development.

• TotalEnergies Sells a 50% Stake in a Portfolio of Developed Assets to KKR. TotalEnergies signed an agreement with an insurance account managed by KKR, a leading global investment firm, for the sale of a 50% stake in a 1.2 GW onshore solar and wind asset portfolio in Europe. The portfolio’s enterprise value amounts to €1.8 billion. The transaction covers a portfolio of assets in Germany, Spain, France and Poland. The electricity produced by these assets is already sold to third parties or will be marketed by TotalEnergies. TotalEnergies will retain a 50% stake in the assets and continue to operate them after completion of the transaction, which is expected in 2026 and subject to customary conditions.

Financing:

• KazMunayGas Issues CNY 3.5 Billion of Bonds. KazMunayGas NC JSC (“KMG”) closed the order book for a Eurobond offering (Dim Sum bonds) with an aggregate principal amount of CNY 3.5 billion. The issuance enabled KMG to raise financing in the Eurobond market at a historically low borrowing cost for the company. The proceeds will be used to finance KMG’s large-scale investment program. KMG will place CNY 1.5 billion of five-year bonds with a coupon rate of 2.3% per annum and a yield of 2.45%, as well as CNY 2 billion of ten-year bonds with a coupon rate of 2.8% per annum and a yield of 2.98%. Moody’s assigned a Baa1 credit rating to the bonds, in line with KMG’s rating. Settlement is scheduled for 2 September 2026.

Key factors, influencing the market in July 2026:

Three factors dominated July: the pace of supply normalization, OPEC+ quota policy, and renewed Middle East geopolitical risk.

Supply developments:

• Supply recovered strongly after the June reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the market remained volatile due to renewed late-month escalation with renewed airstrikes and threats to shipping through Hormuz.

• OPEC+ added to supply pressure by agreeing on July 5 to raise output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, continuing its gradual unwind of earlier cuts.

Demand by region:

• Demand in July remained soft relative to the supply recovery, with the IEA warning that world oil demand was set for its first annual decline since 2020 and that 2026 demand could fall by about 1 million barrels per day year on year.

• The main reason was that earlier price spikes had already damaged consumption, and the lagged effect was still working through transport, petrochemicals, and industrial activity. Lower prices later in the month helped sentiment, but they did not fully reverse the earlier demand hit.

• In Asia, import dependence and exposure to shipping costs kept demand highly sensitive to any renewed Hormuz risk.

• In Europe, weaker industrial activity and the pass-through from energy price swings remained the main demand drags.

• In the U.S. and other OECD markets, lower fuel prices helped somewhat, but inventory tightness and uncertain macro conditions kept consumption cautious.

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• ConocoPhillips reaches agreement supporting redevelopment of producing oil fields in Iraq. ConocoPhillips agreed to terms with bp to acquire a 42% interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited (BP ECKL), supporting the ongoing redevelopment of four large-scale, currently producing oil fields in the Kirkuk area of northern Iraq. BP ECKL holds the Development and Production Contract (DPC) covering the currently producing and historically prolific Baba and Avanah domes of the Kirkuk oil field and three adjacent fields in Federal Iraq – Bai Hassan, Jambur and Khabbaz. The DPC includes an initial gross recoverable resource of more than 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, to be recovered through field rehabilitation, redevelopment and optimization activities. The contract area also includes additional exploration potential.

• TotalEnergies Divests its Minority Non-Operated Interest in Marjoram Gas Field. TotalEnergies announces the divestment to INPEX of its 85% interest in Block 2E offshore Malaysia, representing a net interest of 8.5% in the Marjoram gas field currently under development, for a consideration of USD 350 million.

• ADNOC makes $6.2 Billion FID For Umm Shaif Gas Cap. ADNOC is accelerating its integrated global gas growth strategy with a $6.2 billion (AED22.6 billion) final investment decision (FID) to develop the Umm Shaif Gas Cap in Abu Dhabi alongside its international partners TotalEnergies, Eni and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Production from the development is expected by 2030.

• Vitol sells VTX Energy Partners to Verde Operating Company. Vitol agreed to sell its US upstream company, VTX Energy Partners to Verde Operating Company for an undisclosed sum. VTX was created in 2022 by Vitol and the former ATX management team, led by Gene Shepherd and Erik Hoover. Today, VTX produces 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the southern Delaware Basin, spanning Reeves and Pecos counties, Texas.

• ADNOC, XRG and Mitsui to Advance New Opportunities Across the Energy Value Chain. ADNOC and XRG signed a Strategic Collaboration Agreement (SCA) with Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Mitsui) to unlock new growth opportunities across the energy value chain. Under the agreement, the companies will explore collaboration across LNG, crude oil, sulfur, shipping and chemicals, as well as international energy investment opportunities through XRG.

• TotalEnergies Approves the Development of the Cronos Gas Field. TotalEnergies (50%) and Eni (50%, operator), partners in Cyprus offshore Block 6, have taken the Final Investment Decision (FID) for the development of the Cronos gas field, discovered in 2022 and successfully appraised in 2024. Located in deep offshore waters approximately 185 kilometers southwest of the coast of Cyprus, Cronos will be developed through four subsea wells. The gas will be transported by subsea pipeline from Cypriot waters to Egypt, where it will be liquefied at the Damietta LNG terminal before being exported to Europe.

• bp sells 15% in ECKL to Turkish TPAO. bp and Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO) agreed terms for TPAO to acquire a 15% interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited (BP ECKL), further expanding the partnership supporting the redevelopment of several major oil and gas fields in the Kirkuk region of northern Iraq.

• bp exits Bay du Nord interest as part of continued portfolio simplification. bp agreed to sell its non-operated interest in the Bay du Nord project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, to Equinor.

• bp started up its Atlantis Major Facility Expansion project in the US Gulf of America. Atlantis is located about 150 miles south of New Orleans and has been in production for nearly 20 years. The expansion project adds two new subsea water injection wells to help increase the pressure of targeted reservoirs, unlocking additional barrels and extending the producing life of one of bp’s flagship US offshore assets. The project, which was delivered ahead of schedule and under budget, adds approximately 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) of gross peak annualized average production, with around 5,000 boe/d net to bp.

• bp launches process to market its North Sea business for a potential sale. The decision forms part of bp’s ongoing portfolio review and reflects its disciplined approach to capital allocation – all in service of creating a simpler, stronger and more valuable company. bp’s North Sea portfolio comprises five production hubs: two in the central North Sea (Andrew and ETAP) and three west of Shetland (Glen Lyon, Clair and Clair Ridge).

• Shell agrees to sell BG Cyprus Limited. Shell reached an agreement to sell its 100%-owned subsidiary BG Cyprus Ltd. to MOL Group for up to $720 million. BG Cyprus Ltd. holds a 35% non-operated interest in the Cyprus Offshore Block 12, containing the Aphrodite gas field in the eastern Mediterranean. All produced gas is expected to be sold to the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS).

Trading&Logistics:

• ADNOC Launches Global LNG Marketing and Trading Platform. ADNOC launched a global liquefied natural gas (LNG) marketing and trading platform in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), combining the marketing activities of ADNOC Gas and XRG with the trading capabilities of ADNOC Trading into an integrated commercial platform. Targeting 47 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of combined marketable LNG by 2035, the platform will rank among the leading global LNG players, scaling up ADNOC and XRG’s capacity to optimize a growing and diverse LNG portfolio and reinforce Abu Dhabi’s position as a global energy trading center.

• ADNOC Signs 15-Year Sales and Purchase Agreement with INPEX for Ruwais LNG Project. ADNOC announced the signing of a 15-year Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with INPEX CORPORATION (INPEX), Japan’s largest exploration and production (E&P) company, for the supply of 1 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Ruwais LNG project.

• ADNOC Announces Update to its Crude Pricing Methodology. ADNOC updates the Official Selling Price (OSP) methodology for its Abu Dhabi crude grades. Effective 1 November 2026, ADNOC will transition from the current ICE Futures Abu Dhabi-based pricing methodology, which uses the Murban futures contract and prices crude two months ahead of loading, to a prompt-month pricing methodology based on the Platts Dubai benchmark [PCAAT00], plus an ADNOC-announced differential that will be announced in the month preceding target delivery month.
  The updated methodology will apply across ADNOC’s Abu Dhabi onshore and offshore crude grades, including Murban, Das, Umm Lulu and Upper Zakum, and aligns pricing more closely with the month of loading.

• TotalEnergies Ships to Asia First Cargo from ECA LNG Plant. TotalEnergies shipped to Asia the very first cargo from ECA LNG Phase 1, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal currently under commissioning on Mexico’s Pacific Coast, in Baja California. TotalEnergies, which holds a 16.6% stake in the project alongside operator Sempra Infrastructure, will offtake 1.7 million tonnes per year (Mtpa) of LNG for 20 years from the start of commercial operations. TotalEnergies will be the sole off-taker of LNG during the ramp-up phase.

Energy Transition:

• Vitol divests VGMobility. Vitol announced the divestment of one of its emobility companies, VGMobility. Created by Vitol in 2020 with a mission to deliver green mobility solutions across the Americas, today, VGMobility is the largest platform of sustainable transportation assets in Latin America. Across five key projects in Colombia and Chile, VGMobility has over 2,600 electric buses under contract, transports over 250 million passengers a year and offers municipalities the opportunity of reducing air pollution and upgrading local transport through an efficient turnkey solution.

• Repsol, Toyota, BMW and Bosch launch real-world pilot of vehicles running on 100% renewable gasoline. Repsol, in collaboration with Toyota Motor Europe (TME), BMW Group, and Bosch, launched of a six-month pilot project in Spain. The pilot, which started in early July, will demonstrate the real-world potential of vehicles running exclusively on renewable fuels. The initiative will deploy a fleet of around 20 Toyota and BMW vehicles, powered by Repsol’s 100% renewable gasoline (Nexa 95), and supported by Bosch’s advanced digital fuel tracking technology.

• ORLEN expands its EV charging network in Europe. ORLEN opened its first multi-bay fast-charging hub for electric vehicles in Germany, operating under ORLEN Charge brand. The site is located on the A23 motorway in Elmshorn, near Hamburg, where ORLEN Deutschland is headquartered. It features 16 state-of-the-art 400 kW chargers for significantly shorter charging times.

• OMV Petrom installes offshore production platform in the Black Sea. OMV Petrom, the largest integrated energy producer in Southeast Europe, and SNGN ROMGAZ SA, the largest producer and main supplier of natural gas in Romania, completed the installation of the offshore production platform for Neptun Deep, marking one of the most important milestones in the development of Romania’s largest natural gas project. The project is on schedule for the start of production in 2027 and will contribute to strengthening the energy security of Romania and the region.

• OMV receives loan from the EIB for green hydrogen facility. The European Investment Bank (“EIB”) granted a EUR 450 million loan to support the construction of OMV’s green hydrogen production plant, which is set to significantly contribute to the decarbonization of the Schwechat refinery in Lower Austria. With a total investment of EUR 600 million, this 140 MW plant in Bruck an der Leitha is currently under construction and scheduled to commence operations by the end of 2027.

• TotalEnergies Divests its Distributed Solar Generation Activities in Europe. TotalEnergies completed the divestment of all its distributed solar assets (around 170 MW), mainly rooftop installations, across 7 European countries (France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Luxembourg) to Amarenco and AMPYR Distributed Energy.

• bp to sell majority of bp Ventures portfolio. bp reached an agreement with Verdane to divest bp Ventures’ minority interests in more than 10 companies in its portfolio, subject to regulatory and contractual approvals. The transaction includes most of bp Ventures’ minority interests across a range of energy-related technologies. bp will retain interests in a small number of investments where the technology has the potential to create value for its businesses. The divestment is expected to complete by the second quarter of 2027.

• bp sells Austrian mobility & EV charging businesses to volenergy AG. bp reached an agreement to sell its mobility, convenience and electric vehicle (EV) charging businesses in Austria to volenergy AG. The deal includes 250 bp branded retail sites, of which around 115 are company owned and franchise operated, as well as electric vehicle charging infrastructure and the associated fleet business. Retail sites in Austria will continue to operate under the bp brand through a brand license agreement following completion which is expected at the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.

• Shell to sell Sprng Energy group to Aditya Birla Renewables Limited. Shell Overseas Investment B.V., a wholly owned subsidiary of Shell plc, signed an agreement with Aditya Birla Renewables Limited (ABRen) to sell 100% of Solenergi Power Private Limited, which includes the Sprng Energy group of companies, for $1.8 billion.

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Key factors, influencing the market in June 2026:

• The dominant market driver in June was the transition from conflict-driven scarcity to expectations of normalization. Oil prices fell sharply as traders priced in a reopening of shipping lanes and the prospect of restored Iranian and Gulf exports. Reuters reported that analysts cut 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the war began, reflecting the changed outlook.

• The second major driver was inventory drawdowns, which kept the market sensitive even after tensions eased. The EIA said OECD inventories were headed toward their lowest levels since 2003 under its assumptions, showing how much damage the earlier supply shock had already done.

• A third driver was policy: OPEC+ still had to manage a market that was swinging from acute shortage toward a possible surplus later in the year.

Supply developments

• The main supply development in June was the gradual restoration of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

• The EIA still assumes the strait would remain effectively closed in the near term, with shipments resuming only gradually in 3Q26 and pre-conflict traffic not fully restored until early 2027. It also said Middle East producers had cut output by more than 11 million barrels per day in May versus pre-conflict levels, leaving inventories under heavy pressure at the start of June.

• At the same time, some new non-Middle East supply was coming online, including the start of continuous production at Santos’ Pikka Phase 1 project in Alaska, which added to the longer-term supply outlook. OPEC+ continued to signal a measured approach to output increases, trying to balance market-share defense with price stability.

Demand by region

Demand in June was shaped by lower prices after the war premium faded, but also by the fact that earlier price spikes had already depressed consumption in transport and industry.

• In Asia, demand sensitivity remained highest because import dependence, freight costs, and petrochemical exposure made the region most vulnerable to volatility.

• In Europe, the easing of the crisis reduced immediate fuel stress, but the region still faced a lingering price and inflation effect from the earlier spike.

• In the U.S. and other OECD markets, inventories and pricing data showed the market was still tight enough to keep demand behavior cautious even as benchmarks fell.

Corporate performance:

Upstream:

• ORLEN Advances Cerisa Project in the North Sea. ORLEN Upstream Norway, together with its license partners, has taken a final investment decision on the development of the Cerisa discovery. The project is expected to deliver 8.5 million barrels of oil equivalent net to ORLEN, including approximately 0.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Start-up of production is planned for 2027. The Cerisa discovery was made in June 2024 within license PL 636, located approximately 120 km north of Bergen. The license operator is Vår Energi, and the remaining partners, alongside ORLEN Upstream Norway, are INPEX Idemitsu Norge and DNO Norge.

• Repsol signs agreement to explore and develop a new oil area in Venezuela. Repsol signed a memorandum of understanding with Venezuela’s Ministry of Hydrocarbons and state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to assess the potential development of a new area known as Horcón, located southeast of Lake Maracaibo.

• MOL Group and partners start gas production at ACG field in Azerbaijan. MOL Group and its Joint Venture (JV) partners have achieved the first gas in the ACG field in Azerbaijan, where non-associated gas (NAG) reservoirs had previously been identified beneath and above the producing oil reservoirs. The partners have now completed drilling an initial producing well and started testing activities. This marks the first-ever commercial gas production from ACG, one of the world’s largest oil-producing fields.

• MOL Group signs production sharing agreement for offshore exploration in Libya.MOL Group signed a production sharing agreement with its Joint Venture (JV) partners, Repsol and Türkiye Petrolleri A. O. (TPAO) for an offshore exploration area in the Mediterranean Sea, after being granted an exploration licence. Signing the production sharing agreement marks a key milestone in advancing exploration activities in Libya. MOL Group entered the country earlier this year through a successful joint bidding with its JV partners for an offshore exploration licence. Together with Repsol (40% as operator) and TPAO (40%), MOL Group (20%) has submitted a joint bid for the O7 offshore block and was awarded the right to conduct hydrocarbon exploration. The O7 block covers more than 10,300 km² in water depths exceeding 1,500 meters, located approximately 140 kilometres northwest of Benghazi. Its deepwater setting aligns with the consortium’s extensive offshore experience.

• Eni enters the upstream of the Argentina LNG integrated project. Eni signed the Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for the acquisition of a 32% interest in three upstream blocks (Meseta Buena Esperanza, Aguada Villanueva, and Las Tacanas), which are part of the unconventional Vaca Muerta basin, in Argentina. Following the completion of the transaction, which remains subject to approval by the relevant authorities, participation in the three upstream blocks will be held by YPF with 36%, Eni with 32%, and XRG with 32%. The three blocks will be part of the Argentina LNG integrated development, an upstream-midstream project aimed at leveraging the Vaca Muerta gas resources. These assets’ resources will feed the 12 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG capacity (via two floating LNG units of 6 MTPA each).

• ORLEN strengthens Norwegian portfolio with Goliat stake. ORLEN Upstream Norway signed an agreement with Vår Energi to acquire a 20% stake in five licenses, including the producing Goliat field. The transaction will increase the company’s oil and gas reserves by nearly 60 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and is expected to boost production by around 12,000 barrels per day within the next few years. Goliat is one of the main fields operated in the Barents Sea. Due to the need to protect the environment, in 1979 the Norwegian authorities made only the southern part of this basin available for exploration activities, imposing additional requirements and restrictions on oil companies. Completion of the transaction is subject to approval by Norwegian authorities. Once finalized, the Goliat license partners will be Vår Energi (operator, 45%), Equinor (35%) and ORLEN Upstream Norway (20%).

• TotalEnergies Enters in the Bab Gas Cap Concession. TotalEnergies has signed its entry into the Bab Gas Cap Concession in Abu Dhabi, with a 10% interest, alongside ADNOC (60%), bp (10%), CNPC (8%), JODCO/INPEX (5%), ZhenHua (4%) and GS Energy (3%). This new concession, operated by ADNOC Onshore, will enable the partners to develop the large gas cap resources of the Bab onshore field, with a target production rate of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day. It builds on the 2015 renewal for 40 years of the Onshore oil concession (formerly ADCO).

• Shell to sell interest in Gulf of America platform. Shell Offshore Inc., a subsidiary of Shell plc, agreed to sell its 50% non-operated working interest in the Na Kika platform and associated fields in the Gulf of America as well as its 100% owned Coulomb tieback. The assets will be acquired by subsidiaries of Talos Energy and Ridgewood Energy for a total consideration of $1.7 billion, subject to customary adjustments and certain contingent payments.

• Equinor and Vår Energi agree asset swap in Troll and Gjøa areas. Equinor and Vår Energi agreed to a swap of assets on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). The transaction enables further maturation of the Peon gas discovery towards development and strengthens Equinor’s position in the Troll-Fram area. Under the agreement, Equinor will transfer 32,5% of its interest in the Peon discovery and operatorship to Vår Energi as part of a broader asset swap. As part of the transaction, Equinor will receive interests in producing assets and development licences, including a 5% share in the Fram field and Vår Energi’s positions in the Grosbeak and Mulder discoveries and Grønngylt prospect that are part of the Ringvei Vest development. Equinor and its partners have agreed on the concept for the development of Peon with a tie-back solution to Gjøa. The development is expected to extend the lifetime of the hub and support long-term gas production from the area. The gas from Peon is expected to be processed through Kårstø, creating additional value for Equinor. Peon is one of the largest undeveloped gas discoveries on the NCS, with estimated recoverable resources of 105–195 million barrels of oil equivalent. The discovery is located approximately 60 kilometres from the Gjøa field.

Downstream:

• Mercuria Signs Agreement to Acquire Raízen Argentina. Mercuria Energy Group (“Mercuria”) signed a binding agreement to acquire 100 percent of Raízen’s downstream and related operations in Argentina, including refining, fuel distribution, and associated infrastructure assets. The transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

• MOL, Serbia sign Shareholders’ Agreement on governance of NIS. MOL Group signed a Shareholders’ Agreement with the Serbian government regarding the future governance of Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). If MOL Group successfully becomes the majority owner, it will ensure the development of NIS, the supply of the Serbian market, and the operation of the Pancevo refinery. In addition to signing the sales and purchase agreement, the completion of the transaction requires further regulatory approvals. MOL Group continues negotiations with Gazprom Neft regarding the acquisition of its 56.15% stake in NIS.

Trading & Logistics:

• Mercuria and Eni to Establish a Global Trading Joint Venture. Mercuria and Eni signed an agreement to establish a jointly owned global energy trading venture that will combine the complementary strengths of both companies to optimize the marketing, logistics, and trading of energy commodities worldwide. The joint venture, owned equally by Mercuria and Eni, will operate independently through a holding structure with its headquarters in Geneva and international trading hubs providing a truly global platform for energy markets. The venture will oversee selected commercialization and trading activities across a broad range of energy commodities, including oil, biofuels, natural gas, LNG, LPG, and associated logistics and infrastructure rights.

• Vitol and IRH finalize 20-year LNG supply agreement. Vitol Inc. and IRH Global Trading Ltd., subsidiary of International Resources Holding (“IRH”) executed a natural gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (“SPA”). Under the agreement, Vitol will supply 1.0 million tonnes per annum of LNG on a free on-board (“FOB”) to IRH for a period of 20 years, reinforcing IRH’s long-term commitment to securing reliable and diversified energy supply to meet growing global demand.

• Vitol invests in Delfin FLNG 1, the first offshore LNG facility in the United States. Vitol invested in Delfin FLNG 1, the first floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction facility in the United States and the largest floating LNG project globally. Vitol is both an equity investor in the project and will be its largest offtaker, once the project is completed, with volumes of 1.4MTPA.

  FLNG will be located approximately 40 miles off the southern coast of Louisiana. It will have an annual nameplate LNG production capacity of 4.4 million tonnes and is expected to begin production in 2030. The total project cost is approximately US$5 billion. Feed gas will be sourced on the U.S. mainland and transported via existing pipelines to the offshore facility, where it will be liquefied onboard the FLNG vessel before being loaded onto LNG carriers for delivery to global markets.

Energy Transition:

• Repsol and Masdar to partner in €849 million renewables portfolio in Spain. Repsol and Masdar signed an agreement for Masdar to acquire a 49.99% stake in a renewable energy portfolio in Spain. The transaction values the portfolio at €849 million. The portfolio comprises 705 megawatts (MW) of operational capacity, including 13 wind farms (402 MW) and six photovoltaic solar parks (303 MW), all of which entered operation in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, the portfolio includes more than 565 MW of potential hybridization pipeline growth, comprising of wind, solar and battery storage.

• Plenitude starts production at the 220 MW Villarino solar park. Plenitude started the production at its Villarino photovoltaic plant, located in the municipality of Villarino de los Aires, in Salamanca (Castilla y León, Spain), with an installed capacity of 220 MW. The project consists of a single solar park covering approximately 286 hectares and includes more than 365,000 bifacial modules. The plant is expected to reach an estimated annual production of over 400 GWh.

• ORLEN advances strategic Baltic Eagle Gas Hub project. ORLEN reserved regasification capacity at the FSRU 2 terminal to be launched in the Gulf of Gdańsk. This decision will enhance the flexibility of LNG supplies and strengthen the energy security of Poland and the wider region, while supporting the development of the Baltic Eagle Gas Hub concept. With FSRU 1, FSRU 2 and capacity reserved at the Klaipėda LNG terminal, accessed via the Santaka interconnector, the ORLEN Group will be able to import more than 16 bcm of natural gas annually (after regasification).

• ORLEN and Naftogaz expand cooperation to bolster Ukraine’s energy security. ORLEN and Naftogaz signed two memoranda laying out a framework for their further collaboration in areas critical to Ukraine’s energy security and long-term energy transition. Under the MoUs, the parties will cooperate in LNG trading, use of regasification and transmission infrastructure across the Baltic Sea and CEE regions, as well as the exchange of expertise in sustainability, decarbonisation, sustainable transition financing and ESG governance.

Financing:

• Mercuria Energy Trading SA successfully closes USD 3.84 billion Multi-currency revolving credit facilities. Mercuria Energy Trading S.A confirms the successful closing of its USD 3.84 billion Multicurrency Revolving Credit Facilities (the “Facilities”). The Facilities comprise a new 1-year Multicurrency Revolving Credit Facility, a new 1-year Multicurrency Revolving Credit/Swingline/OBSI Facility and the extension and increase of Mercuria’s 3-year Multicurrency Revolving Credit Facility. Mercuria mandated Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank P.J.S.C., Bank of China Limited, London Branch, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., First Abu Dhabi Bank P.J.S.C., ING Bank N.V., Mizuho Bank Ltd, Natixis, Société Générale, UBS Switzerland AG, UniCredit Bank GmbH and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation as Bookrunning Mandated Lead Arrangers.

• Gunvor Secures US$1.366 Billion Syndicated Revolving Credit Facility With Oversubscription. Gunvor Singapore Pte. Ltd. closed a US$1.366 billion sustainability-linked, syndicated revolving credit facility. The Facility, which was launched initially at US$800 million in April 2026, received strong support from Gunvor’s banking partners and attracted new banks, bringing together a total of 32 banks to close significantly oversubscribed by over 71% at general syndication and an increase over the previous year.

• Trafigura issues USD500 million senior bond. Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. issued a USD500 million senior Reg S bond with a five-year maturity under its Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) program. The bond priced at 5.625 percent, a tightening of 20 basis points from initial guidance.

• Trafigura signs USD350 million loan facility agreement with Develop Global Ltd. Trafigura Pte Ltd. signed a USD350 million loan facility agreement with Develop Global Ltd (”Develop”) to support the development of two new mines producing critical industrial and battery metals. The two projects – Sulphur Springs, a copper-silver-zinc project in Western Australia, and the Pioneer Dome Lithium Project also in Western Australia – will bring essential resources to market upon completion.

• Trafigura raises USD500 million in the Asset-Backed Securities market. Trafigura Securitisation Finance Plc, a receivables securitisation vehicle of Trafigura Group, successfully priced a new series of notes (“TSF 2026-1”) on the 144A/RegS Asset-Backed Securities (“ABS”) market. This marks Trafigura’s eighth public ABS transaction since the programme’s inception in November 2004. TSF has since become the largest AAA/Aaa publicly-rated securitisation programme of trade receivables in the world. A total of USD500 million of public notes (3-year tenor) were placed with US investors, including USD465 million fixed-rate Class A notes (AAA/Aaa) at U.S. Treasuries I-Curve +110bps and USD35 million fixed rate Class B notes (BBB/Baa2) at U.S. Treasuries I-Curve +220bps.Asia, demand sensitivity remained highest because import dependence, freight costs, and petrochemical exposure made the region most vulnerable to volatility.

We would like to advertise our training course for professionals: Competitive strategies in the oil & gas industry: drivers of value creation.

During the course, the participants will address the following questions:

• How do companies formulate their strategic goals?

• What levers do they have to achieve their strategic goals?

• How does a strategic planning process work?

• How is a corporate strategy decomposed into functional strategies?

• How can companies improve their competitive advantage through innovation?

• What role do Mergers & Acquisitions plays?

• What implication will the energy transition have on the companies’ strategies?

Share

For all these questions we will look at different examples from the best oil and gas companies across various regions and positions in the oil industry’s value chain – from upstream to downstream to trading and retail.

Whether you are an aspiring top-performer or an experienced professional, this course will provide you with the knowledge and resources:

• To understand how oil and gas industry works from corporate perspective,

• To understand the strategic playground & tools in the industry, and

• To learn to apply it in real time professional environment.

To learn about the detailed program of the course and participation terms, please, reach out: victor.burykin@vb-strategy.com

Key factors, influencing the market in May 2026:

May’s market was driven by three forces: geopolitical supply risk, declining inventories, and OPEC+ policy shifts.

• According to Reuters, the market was still pricing in a supply crunch as the war-driven shock persisted, while inventories were falling fast enough to keep Brent elevated.

• The EIA expects lower inventories in May and June would limit downward pressure on oil prices even as some flows resumed.

Supply developments

• The UAE’s exit from OPEC added a separate strategic shock by weakening coordination inside the producer bloc and changing expectations around spare capacity and future supply flexibility.

• OPEC+ still approved a modest June output increase of 188,000 barrels per day on May 3, which demonstarted that the group was trying to balance price support against the risk of losing market share.

• Non-Middle East supply was still growing, especially in the Americas, but it was not enough to offset the Middle East losses in the near term.

Demand by region

• Demand was held back by elevated prices, with Brent around $106 per barrel in May and April’s spike still feeding through to fuel use and consumer behavior.

• The IEA said the petrochemical and aviation industries were the most affected, and that higher prices, sluggish economic conditions, and conservation measures would increasingly curb fuel consumption. It also projected a year-on-year demand decline of 420,000 barrels per day by the end of 2026.

• In Europe, the European Commission said countries were feeling price effects rather than physical shortages, but warned that jet fuel markets could tighten further if the situation did not improve.

• Asia remained the most sensitive region, because import dependence and higher freight and aviation costs made it especially vulnerable to any further supply squeeze.

• In the U.S. and other OECD markets, demand was softer than usual because high prices were discouraging discretionary fuel use.

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• bp enters North Ustyurt PSA in Uzbekistan. bp confirmed its entry into a production sharing agreement (PSA) for six blocks in the North Ustyurt region in Uzbekistan. The agreement includes the Boyterak, Terengquduq, Birqori, Kharoy, Qoraqalpoq and Qulboy blocks.

• bp signs three production sharing contracts in Indonesia. bp and its partners signed three Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) in Indonesia, bringing bp’s total participation in oil and gas blocks in the country to 11.Two of the PSCs are for the Bintuni and Drawa exploration blocks, which are located near existing bp-operated Tangguh LNG in Papua Barat, creating potential for short-cycle development. bp also confirmed its participation in the INPEX-operated Barong block in East Java.

• Repsol and Santos reach first oil at Pikka in Alaska. Repsol, together with Santos, has reached first oil at Pikka, on Alaska’s North Slope in the United States, with oil flow established through the Lease Automated Custody Transfer (LACT) meter into the Pikka oil sales pipeline. Production will increase to reach a production plateau of 80,000 barrels of crude oil per day in the third quarter of the year. First sales revenue is also expected in the third quarter, with the partners alternating shipments of cargoes. Repsol has a 49% stake in the project, while the Australian company Santos owns the remaining 51% and acts as operator.

• Equinor increases gas production at Eirin field. The Eirin field has come on stream and is now exporting gas to Europe via the Gina Krog and Sleipner A platforms in the North Sea. The subsea development has been developed in record time. Expected recoverable resources from Eirin are about 27.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, mainly gas. Eirin was proven as early as 1978 but was abandoned due to lack of profitability. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Norwegian gas became more important, and the discovery was reassessed in 2023.

• Equinor and Aker BP to unlock more value on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Equinor and Aker BP have agreed on a strategic collaboration aiming to increase future production and value creation across selected parts of their portfolios on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). As a first step the parties have agreed on a set of transactions in the Troll-Fram (Ringvei Vest), Yggdrasil and Wisting areas that will strengthen alignment on future developments.

• OMV starts production of Austria’s largest natural gas discovery in 40 years. OMV announces the start of gas extraction from the Wittau well, in Austria. Around 11 TWh of gas to be developed in the first phase, with deliveries planned for winter 2026/27, and total recoverable resources of up to 48 TWh.

• TotalEnergies signs a Cooperation Agreement on offshore exploration in Syria. TotalEnergies together with its partners QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC) relating to the exploration of Block 3 offshore Syria in the Mediterranean Sea. The MoU covers a technical review by the partners of the offshore Block 3 area and establishes a framework for technical and commercial discussions related to exploration activities on this block.

• TotalEnergies and EGAS sign a Cooperation Agreement on offshore exploration. TotalEnergies and the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on exploration activities. The MoU covers a large area located in the north-western offshore of Egypt.

Downstream

• Aramco and PETRONAS Transfer of Full Ownership of PRefChem to PETRONAS. Aramco and Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) announced the signing of an agreement for the transfer of Aramco’s equity stakes in Pengerang Refining Company Sdn. Bhd. and Pengerang Petrochemical Company Sdn. Bhd. (collectively, “PRefChem”), located within the Pengerang Integrated Complex, Pengerang, Johor to PETRONAS. Subject to customary closing conditions, the transfer will make PRefChem a wholly owned and operated subsidiary of the PETRONAS Group.

• TA’ZIZ Announces $2 Billion Financing for UAE’s First World Scale Methanol Plant. TA’ZIZ Methanol Company, a joint venture between TA’ZIZ and Proman, has achieved financial close on $2 billion (AED7.34 billion) financing for the UAE’s first world scale methanol plant in Al Ruwais Industrial City.

• Phillips 66 announces Zeus Gas Plant and a third Coastal Bend Fractionator. Phillips 66 announced it is moving forward with the Zeus Gas Plant and a third Coastal Bend Fractionator, two projects that will advance its integrated wellhead-to-market strategy, thereby expanding gas processing capacity in the Permian and NGL fractionation capabilities on the Gulf Coast.

  Zeus will be a 300 MMcf/d gas processing facility in the Permian and will include the new Midland Express (MEX) Pipeline, an approximately 45-mile, 20-inch line integrating Phillips 66’s Permian Basin gathering systems. Expected to come online with the Zeus processing plant, MEX will be able to move up to 230 MMcf/d of wellhead gas and provide future bi-directional flexibility between multiple processing facilities.

  The third Coastal Bend Fractionator, previously referenced as Corpus Christi Fractionator, or BTT2, will be a 100 MBD natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionator in Robstown, Texas, including NGL purity pipeline expansion and water treatment facilities. Both projects are expected to be online in 2028.

• Chevron introduces next-gen Techron in U.S. Chevron and Texaco gasolines. Chevron U.S.A. Inc., a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), announced the introduction of next-generation Techron®, a reformulated version of its proprietary gasoline additive designed to provide greater protection for engines from harmful deposits caused by lower quality fuels, supporting long-term engine performance.

Trading & Logistics

• Venture Global signs LNG agreements with TotalEnergies and Vitol. Venture Global announced the execution of two binding agreements with TotalEnergies and Vitol for the purchase of additional U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Venture Global. Venture Global announced a new, binding agreement with TotalEnergies for the purchase of approximately 0.85 MTPA of LNG from Venture Global for approximately five years commencing in 2026. Separately, Venture Global and Vitol agreed to increase their existing five-year binding LNG agreement to 1.7 MTPA, up from 1.5 MTPA previously agreed and announced in March 2026. Both agreements will be supplied from Venture Global’s portfolio.

• Mercuria and Heeney Capital Secure Strategic Offtake Agreements in Venezuela. Mercuria Energy Group (“Mercuria”) announced that, in partnership with Heeney Capital, it has secured a series of strategic offtake agreements across Venezuelan bulk commodities and gold projects, as part of a broader White House-supported initiative to revitalize the country’s energy and mining sectors.

• Mercuria and Motor Oil Hellas Sign MoU to Cooperate on LNG Supply. Mercuria Energy and Motor Oil Hellas (“MOH”) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) establishing a framework for long-term cooperation in connection with the Dioriga Gas Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (“FSRU”) project in Greece’s Saronic Gulf.

  The Dioriga Gas FSRU, being developed by MOH through its subsidiary Dioriga Gas, stands as the most advanced and mature FSRU project in Greece. Strategically located in the Saronic Gulf, it represents the optimal solution for LNG imports into Greece and the wider Southeast European region.

• Delfin Midstream Signs Additional Long-Term LNG Supply Agreement with Gunvor. Gunvor International B.V. Amsterdam entered into a long-term LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement (“SPA”) with Delfin LNG LLC (“Delfin LNG”), a subsidiary of Delfin. Under the SPA, Delfin LNG will supply 0.3 million tonnes of LNG per annum to Gunvor on a free-on-board (“FOB”) basis at the Delfin FLNG1 facility, located 40 nautical miles off the coast of Louisiana, for 20 years.

• CMB.TECH increases stake in TFG Marine. TFG Marine Pte Ltd (”TFG Marine”) announced that CMB.TECH, one of the world’s largest maritime groups, has increased its shareholding and committed to sourcing the bunker fuel requirements of CMB.TECH and its affiliates through the company. Under the revised shareholder arrangements, effective from 1 June 2026, CMB.TECH will increase its equity stake in TFG Marine from 10 to 15 percent through an issuance of new shares. The transaction also extends the existing marine fuel supply agreement to cover all bunker fuel demands of CMB.TECH and its affiliates. Following completion of the transaction, the amended shareholding of TFG Marine will be 70 percent Trafigura, 15 percent Frontline Plc and 15 percent CMB.TECH.

• Equinor signs 5-year agreement for supplies to Germany. Equinor signed a 5-year agreement with the Dutch energy company Eneco for supplies of natural gas from the Norwegian continental shelf. The gas volumes will be delivered to Eneco’s wholly owned German subsidiary LichtBlick. The agreement runs until the end of 2030 and covers annual volumes of around 2.2 terawatt‑hours (around 0.2 bcm/year), and deliveries to Germany started in April 2026. The gas supplied under the agreement has a greenhouse gas intensity lower than alternative supply into the German grid.

Energy Transition

• Repono launches 202 MW BESS Project in Romania with Gunvor. Repono AB , a European energy storage developer and operator headquartered in Göteborg, announced a strategic commercialization and optimization partnership with Gunvor Group (Geneva), in collaboration with enspired GmbH (Vienna), for its flagship battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Argeș County, Romania.

• Trafigura signs 434MW hybrid power purchase agreement with Nadara in Spain. Trafigura signed a 10-year hybrid Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Nadara, a leading Independent Power Producer, covering 434MW of renewable capacity from eleven wind and solar assets in Spain. The 10-year agreement secures renewable capacity from five solar PV farms and six wind farms, making it one of a small number of multi-technology PPAs in Europe. The PPA covers output from Nadara’s hybrid sites at Esquileo, Dehesilla I, Dehesilla II, San Lorenzo C and San Lorenzo D, as well as from the operational wind site La Dehesica.

• Repsol achieves commercial operations at its 825 MW Pinnington solar facility in Texas. Repsol achieved commercial operations at its 825 MW Pinnington solar project, located in Texas, marking a significant milestone in the company’s renewable growth strategy in the United States.

• Repsol begins large-scale production of 100% renewable fuels in Puertollano. Repsol launched its second 100% renewable fuel plant on the iberian peninsula, located at its Puertollano industrial complex (Ciudad Real). The facility has the capacity to produce 200,000 tons per year, in addition to the 250,000 tons of renewable fuels produced annually at the Cartagena plant. To develop this project in Puertollano, Repsol has invested €130 million in transforming, for the first time on the iberian peninsula, a refinery unit that processed fossil-based raw materials into a facility capable of processing used cooking oil and other waste from the agri-food industry.

• TotalEnergies Files for Authorization of Its Giant Centre Manche Energies Offshore Wind Project. Eight months after being awarded the project by the French State, TotalEnergies’ wholly owned project company Centre Manche Energies has officially applied for the Single Authorization of the 1.5 GW offshore wind farm, which will be sited off the coast of Normandy.

We would like to advertise our training course for professionals: Competitive strategies in the oil & gas industry: drivers of value creation.

During the course, the participants will address the following questions:

• How do companies formulate their strategic goals?

• What levers do they have to achieve their strategic goals?

• How does a strategic planning process work?

• How is a corporate strategy decomposed into functional strategies?

• How can companies improve their competitive advantage through innovation?

• What role do Mergers & Acquisitions plays?

• What implication will the energy transition have on the companies’ strategies?

Share

For all these questions we will look at different examples from the best oil and gas companies across various regions and positions in the oil industry’s value chain – from upstream to downstream to trading and retail.

Whether you are an aspiring top-performer or an experienced professional, this course will provide you with the knowledge and resources:

• To understand how oil and gas industry works from corporate perspective,

• To understand the strategic playground & tools in the industry, and

• To learn to apply it in real time professional environment.

To learn about the detailed program of the course and participation terms, please, reach out: victor.burykin@vb-strategy.com

Key factors, influencing the market in April 2026:

• April 2026 was defined by a sharp supply shock from the Middle East, especially disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz, while demand was hit by higher prices, flight cancellations, and broader macro stress in key consuming regions.

• According to IEA’s April Oil Market Report, the global oil supply fell sharply in March and that April demand was expected to contract year on year as the crisis hit transport and industrial activity.

• Another big news for the global markets was the announced decision of UAE to leave OPEC as of May 1. This is did not have the immediate effect, however, long-term implications are likely to be significant.

Supply developments

• The biggest supply story in April was the Middle East disruption and the risk to tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed market volatility sharply higher and tightened near-term balances.

• The IEA warned the Iran war had upended its outlook, cutting supply expectations and narrowing the market surplus dramatically compared with earlier forecasts. The IEA also said global supply was projected to fall further in April before recovering later in the year.

• On the non-OPEC side, output growth was still expected from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, but those gains were not enough to offset the shock from the Middle East in the short term.

• The UAE exit from the OPEC did not remove barrels from the market, but in the long run it raised the possibility that the UAE could pursue more flexible production and gain market share later, which could add to oversupply pressure once geopolitically constrained supply normalized.

Demand developments

• Demand pressure was strongest in Asia, where JPMorgan and Reuters noted that more than 80% of the estimated April demand reduction was borne by Asia and other regions outside the OECD.

• The IEA attributed part of the global demand downgrade to flight cancellations in the Middle East, parts of Asia, and Europe, plus disruptions to LPG supply. High prices also reduced fuel use in price-sensitive emerging markets, especially where consumers and industry were more exposed to imported energy costs.

• In OECD markets, demand was also softer because of weaker economic activity and the immediate price shock. In the IEA’s outlook, non-OECD demand still showed some growth, but OECD demand was expected to contract, leaving global demand broadly flat to weaker for the year.

Corporate performance:

Share

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• Shell to acquire ARC Resources. Shell entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ARC Resources Ltd., an energy company focused on the Montney shale basin in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. Acquisition accelerates Shell’s strategy by adding 370 kboe/d immediately across liquids and gas leading to a 4% production CAGR2 through to 2030, compared to 2025.

• bp announces gas discovery offshore Egypt. bp announced a significant gas and condensate discovery offshore Egypt following the successful drilling of the Denise W-1 exploration well in the Temsah Concession, located in the Eastern Mediterranean. Located approximately 70 kilometres offshore in a water depth of 95 metres, the Denise W discovery lies less than 10 kilometres from existing infrastructure, creating strong potential for synergies and a fast-track development.

• bp acquires interest in three Namibian exploration blocks. bp agreed to acquire a 60% interest in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia from Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas as part of bp’s strategy to grow its upstream portfolio. Subject to Namibian government approvals, bp will be the operator of three blocks – PEL97, PEL99 and PEL100 – offshore Namibia in the Walvis Basin, with Eco Atlantic remaining a partner, along with Namibia’s national oil company NAMCOR, following transaction closing conditions being met.

• TotalEnergies and TPAO sign a Cooperation Agreement. TotalEnergies and Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO) signed today a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on exploration opportunities. The MoU provides a framework for technical collaboration, including a joint assessment of exploration opportunities in the Black Sea region of Türkiye as well as internationally.

• TotalEnergies Makes a Hydrocarbon Discovery on Moho License. TotalEnergies EP Congo (63.5%, operator) announced a hydrocarbon discovery on the Moho license, offshore the Republic of Congo. The Moho G discovery, together with the discovery previously made on the nearby Moho F structure, represents recoverable resources estimated at close to 100 million barrels, which are planned to be developed as a tie-back to the existing Moho facilities.

• Chevron confirms oil discovery at Bandit prospect in Gulf of America. Chevron Corporation confirmed an oil discovery at the Bandit prospect in the Gulf of America, as announced by operator Occidental. The discovery has the potential for subsea tie-backs to an adjacent Occidental-operated facility and others in the nearby area. Bandit is operated by Occidental, which holds a 45.375 percent working interest, and is co-owned by Chevron subsidiary Chevron U.S.A. Inc. (37.125 percent working interest) and Woodside Energy (Deepwater) Inc. (17.5 percent working interest).

• Chevron consolidates Venezuela heavy oil position in asset swap. Chevron Corporation has, through its subsidiaries with interests in Venezuela, agreed to an asset swap with Petroleos de Venezuela, S. A. (“PDVSA”) and subsidiaries of PDVSA in a mutually beneficial agreement which will consolidate all parties’ focus on strategic assets in the country. Under the agreement, Chevron will receive an additional 13.21% working interest in the Petroindependencia, S.A. joint venture, increasing its total stake to 49%. In addition, Petropiar, S.A. joint venture, in which Chevron’s subsidiary holds a 30% interest, has been assigned the rights to develop the adjacent Ayacucho 8 area located in the Orinoco Oil Belt of Venezuela. Venezuela will receive from Chevron subsidiaries its 60% and 100% operated interests in the offshore Plataforma Deltana Block 21 and Block 32 gas licenses, respectively, and its 25.2% non-operated interest in the Petroindependiente, S.A. joint venture located in western Venezuela.

• Repsol agrees on conditions to increase its oil production in Venezuela. Repsol signed an agreement with the Venezuelan Ministry of Hydrocarbons and the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), subject to conditions being met, that will allow it to increase production of oil at Petroquiriquire (60% PDVSA, 40% Repsol), ensure payment mechanisms, and strengthen the operational framework for its activities in the country, under the Framework Agreement originally signed in 2023.

Downstream:

• Phillips 66 Limited completes acquisition of Lindsey Oil Refinery assets. Phillips 66 Limited completed the acquisition of the assets and associated infrastructure of Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery Limited (in Liquidation). When integrated with the Humber site, Phillips 66 Limited plans to leverage storage and other infrastructure assets to enhance Humber Refinery operations and improve fuel supply to UK customers.

• WPU plans new chemical recycling facility for end-of-life plastics in Rotterdam. WPU, Vitol’s plastics recycling business, plans to build a new chemical recycling facility for end-of-life plastics at the Port of Rotterdam, alongside Vitol’s refinery, VPR. The new plant will have the capacity to process 80,000 tonnes a year of post-consumer end-of-life plastic, increasing WPU’s total recycling capacity to 100,000 tonnes a year.

Trading & logistics:

• Trafigura signs oil prepayment agreement with the Republic of Gabon. Trafigura Pte Ltd. announced the signing of a USD1 billion prepayment agreement with the Republic of Gabon. Under the agreement, Trafigura will provide the prepayment to the Republic of Gabon in exchange for the future delivery of crude oil over a seven-year term. Trafigura will act as exclusive offtaker of the Republic of Gabon’s Profit Oil for the duration of the agreement.

Energy transition:

• TotalEnergies finalizes the acquisition of flexible power generation assets from EPH. TotalEnergies completed the acquisition agreed on 16 November 2025 of 50% of EPH’s flexible power generation platform in Western Europe. This transaction leads to the creation of TTEP, the 2nd largest flexgen player in Europe, headquartered in Amsterdam. TTEP will own and operate, through its subsidiaries, flexible natural gas and biomass-based power plants and BESS assets across Italy, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands and France, for a total capacity of 14 GW installed or in construction. Its production reached close to 30 TWh of electricity in 2025.

• TotalEnergies Takes Final Investment Decision for Wind and BESS Project in Kazakhstan. TotalEnergies has taken the Final Investment Decision and secured financing for the Mirny onshore wind and Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) project in Kazakhstan. Located in the southeast of the country, Mirny should generate 100 TWh of renewable electricity over 25 years. The electricity produced will be sold to the Government of Kazakhstan under a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signed in 2023. The project’s investment amounts to $1.2 billion, with about 75% externally financed.

• TotalEnergies and Masdar to form JV for Renewable Energy Growth in Asia. TotalEnergies and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company PJSC (Masdar) signed a binding agreement to establish a $2.2bn 50/50 joint venture (JV) that will merge their onshore renewable activities in nine countries across Asia. The JV will have a portfolio capacity of 3 GW of operational assets and 6 GW of assets in advanced development that are expected to be operational by 2030.

• Equinor partially divests shareholding in Scatec. Equinor ASA divested an 8.07 percent shareholding in Scatec ASA at a price of NOK 125 per share. Total consideration amounts to around NOK 1.6 billion. Following the transaction, Equinor holds an 8.05 percent share in Scatec. Equinor has also entered into a 90-day lock-up agreement for the remaining shareholding. Equinor became a minority shareholder in Scatec in 2018 and later increased its shareholding to 16.12% through several purchases in the period 2019-2023. Equinor’s average in-price is around NOK 80 per share, including dividends received. Scatec and Equinor continue to be partners in the Apodi and Mendubim operating solar assets in Brazil. These partnerships are unaffected by the transaction.

We would like to advertise our training course for professionals: Competitive strategies in the oil & gas industry: drivers of value creation.

During the course, the participants will address the following questions:

• How do companies formulate their strategic goals?

• What levers do they have to achieve their strategic goals?

• How does a strategic planning process work?

• How is a corporate strategy decomposed into functional strategies?

• How can companies improve their competitive advantage through innovation?

• What role do Mergers & Acquisitions plays?

• What implication will the energy transition have on the companies’ strategies?

Share

For all these questions we will look at different examples from the best oil and gas companies across various regions and positions in the oil industry’s value chain – from upstream to downstream to trading and retail.

Whether you are an aspiring top-performer or an experienced professional, this course will provide you with the knowledge and resources:

• To understand how oil and gas industry works from corporate perspective,

• To understand the strategic playground & tools in the industry, and

• To learn to apply it in real time professional environment.

To learn about the detailed program of the course and participation terms, please, reach out: victor.burykin@vb-strategy.com

Politics, wars, technological developments, high market volatility, and logistics bottlenecks: all of these have a strong impact on oil and gas companies. In order to survive, they need to come up with competitive strategies.

We are now presenting our new strategy course:

Competitive strategies in the oil & gas industry: drivers of value creation.

During the course, the participants will address the following questions:

• How do companies formulate their strategic goals?

• What levers do they have to achieve their strategic goals?

• How does a strategic planning process work?

• How is a corporate strategy decomposed into functional strategies?

• How can companies improve their competitive advantage through innovation?

• What role do Mergers & Acquisitions plays?

• What implication will the energy transition have on the companies’ strategies?

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For all these questions we will look at different examples from the best oil and gas companies across various regions and positions in the oil industry’s value chain – from upstream to downstream to trading and retail.

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Key factors, influencing the market in March 2026:

Supply developments:

• The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

• The primary driver is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20 million barrels per day (mb/d), roughly 20% of global consumption, normally flows.

• Asia is the most affected region, as nearly 90% of oil and gas passing through Hormuz is typically bound for Asian markets.

• Simultaneous Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have compromised the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, affecting another 10% of world supply and forcing tankers to take the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.

• Limited Alternatives: While pipelines like Saudi Arabia’s East-West line offer some bypass capacity, they can only handle 3.5–5.5 mb/d, leaving a net shortfall of roughly 14.5–16.5 mb/d.

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to cushion the shock.

Demand Trends — Key Regional Drivers

• In short-term, elevated oil prices could lead to demand destruction, however, exact effects are yet to be seen.

• Demand growth in China remained moderate and uneven, with industrial activity showed only gradual improvement, while refinery runs were supported partly by inventory draws and opportunistic buying

• India remained the strongest source of demand growth globally:

  • Robust transport fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)

  • Continued economic expansion and infrastructure activity

• In the US, demand held relatively stable, supported by transport and petrochemical sectors. However:

  • High crude inventories persisted, indicating supply still exceeded refinery intake and exports

  • Refinery maintenance season (spring turnaround) temporarily reduced crude runs

• In Europe, the demand remained subdued, influenced by:

  • Seasonal refinery maintenance

  • Sluggish industrial output

  • Continued energy efficiency improvements

• High prices (linked to geopolitical risk) also dampened consumption.

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Corporate:

• ExxonMobil to Redomicile from New Jersey to Texas. ExxonMobil’s Board of Directors unanimously recommended shareholders approve changing the company’s legal domicile from New Jersey to Texas. The Board concluded that aligning ExxonMobil’s legal domicile with where its leadership and core operations have been based since 1989 will benefit shareholders. In making its recommendation, the Board considered Texas’ legal and regulatory environment, including its modernized business statutes and the Texas Business Court, which is designed to resolve complex disputes efficiently.

• OMV and XRG Complete Transactions to Create Borouge International. OMV Aktiengesellschaft and XRG, ADNOC’s international investment arm, announced the successful formation of Borouge Group International AG, to operate under the brand name “Borouge International”. It is the world’s leading pure-play polyolefins company and fourth-largest polyolefins producer with premium products, pioneering technology and a global footprint. Borouge International has been formed by the combination of Borouge Plc and Borealis, with the new entity acquiring NOVA Chemicals.

• Eni deconsolidates Plenitude through a shareholding reorganization and a new governance structure. Eni initiated a reorganization of Plenitude’s shareholding structure, together with the existing shareholders Ares Management Alternative Credit funds (“Ares”) and Energy Infrastructure Partners. The aim is to establish a new governance framework based on joint control between Eni and Ares, resulting in the deconsolidation of Plenitude from Eni’s financial statements. The transaction involves a non-proportional capital increase to be subscribed to by the shareholders amounting to approximately €1.5 billion, of which at least €1 billion euros is expected to be provided by Ares, based on a 100% pre-money equity valuation of Plenitude of €10.75 billion (and an implied enterprise value of €13.1 billion). Following the capital increase, Eni anticipates holding an equity stake of close to 65%, and expects to continue exercising direction and coordination rights over Plenitude, in a manner compatible with the newly established joint control agreement with Ares. The capital increase is designed to strengthen Plenitude’s capital structure, supporting its growth targets organically and inorganically, including with respect to an installed capacity of 15 GW and 15 million retail customers by 2030.

• Repsol to invest €10 billion through 2028, allocating more than half to Spain and Portugal. The company updated its operational and financial metrics for the 2026–2028 period despite the volatility triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. This update, amid the current macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances, underscores the strength of its businesses, with operating cash flow expected to reach €6.5 billion by 2028, underpinning the Group’s growth.

  • Its investment plan stands at between €8.5 and €10 billion, with 55% allocated to Spain and Portugal and 34% to the United States. 30% of the total will be dedicated to low-carbon projects.

  • Expected shareholder return will be between 30% and 40% of cash flow from operations over the period, including dividends and share buybacks. Repsol will distribute €3.6 billion in cash dividend through 2028.

  • Upstream: Estimated net production for 2028 will stand at 580,000–600,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 40% in the United States.

  • Industrial: Net investments of between €3.9 and €4.1 billion to maintain facilities at the forefront of the industry and consolidate low-carbon initiatives as a key lever for growth and differentiation.

  • Client: Strengthening leadership in traditional businesses and boosting multienergy.

  • Low Carbon Generation: Reaching up to 9,000 MW in operation by 2028, limiting financial exposure.

Upstream:

• bp starts New Gas Consortium project in Angola. bp confirmed start-up of gas production from the Quiluma field, part of the New Gas Consortium (NGC) in Angola. This milestone continues the strong delivery of project start-ups and exploration discoveries for Azule Energy – a 50:50 joint venture between bp and Eni. Initial production from the Quiluma field is expected to be 150 million standard cubic feet (mmscf) per day and ramp up to 330mmscf per day by the end of 2026.

• TotalEnergies Completes the Merger of its UK North Sea Upstream Assets with NEO NEXT. TotalEnergies completed the merger between NEO NEXT and TotalEnergies’ UK Upstream Oil & Gas business. The combined group is renamed NEO NEXT+ and TotalEnergies holds a 47.5% shareholding interest in it. Further to this transaction, NEO NEXT+ becomes the largest independent Oil and Gas producer on the UK Continental Shelf with an expected 2026 production of over 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

• TotalEnergies Restarts Production at the Mabruk Field. TotalEnergies restarted production at the Mabruk oil field in Libya, in which the Company holds an interest of 37.5%. The Mabruk field is located onshore, in concession C17, around 130 km south of Sirte. Production from the field was stopped in 2015. The construction of a new production unit with a capacity of 25,000 barrels per day was launched in May 2024. Start-up of this new facility occurred on February 28, 2026, less than two years after the project was launched.

• TotalEnergies Starts Production at Lapa South-West. TotalEnergies (48%, operator) announced the start-up of the Lapa South-West project, located in the Santos Basin, approximately 300 kilometers offshore Brazil. The Lapa South-West project, including three wells connected to the existing Lapa floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) unit, will increase production from the Lapa field by 25,000 barrels per day.

• Equinor strengthens integrated power portfolio in Brazil. Equinor acquired the ready to build 230 MW Esquina do Vento onshore wind complex from Vestas. The 51 turbine complex is located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The acquisition, conducted by Equinor’s fully owned subsidiary Rio Energy, supports Equinor’s power strategy to build market-driven, multi-technology portfolios.

• New oil discovery strengthens the development of Johan Castberg. Equinor made an oil discovery that will be tied into the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea. The volume basis in Johan Castberg was originally estimated at 500–700 million barrels, and Equinor has an ambition to increase this by an additional 200–500 million barrels.

• Equinor makes two new discoveries in the North Sea. Equinor discovered oil in the Troll area and gas and condensate in the Sleipner area. Both discoveries are considered commercial and were made in areas with well-developed infrastructure for export to Europe. The Byrding C discovery was made five kilometres northwest of the Fram field in the Troll area and is estimated to contain 4–8 million barrels of recoverable oil. The Frida Kahlo discovery was drilled from the Sleipner B platform. The well is located northwest of the Sleipner Vest field and is estimated to contain 5–9 million barrels of oil equivalent of gas and condensate. The well will be brought on stream as early as April.

• Equinor starts drilling major gas development in Brazil. Equinor started the drilling phase for the Raia project in the pre salt of the Campos Basin, Brazil. The drilling campaign includes six wells in the Raia area, located around 200 kilometres offshore the coast of Brazil in water depths of around 2,900 metres. The campaign supports the development of one of Brazil’s most significant natural gas projects, with recoverable reserves exceeding one billion barrels of oil equivalent. Once in operation, the project will have the capacity to export up to 16 million cubic metres of natural gas per day, which could represent 15% of Brazil’s natural gas demand.

• Eni moves forward with major deep water gas hubs in Indonesia. Eni has taken the Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for the Gendalo and Gandang gas project (South Hub) and for the Geng North and Gehem fields (North Hub). The developments combine state‑of‑the‑art technologies with the leveraging of existing infrastructure, including the Jangkrik Floating Production Unit (FPU) and the Bontang liquefaction plant. The Gendalo and Gandang development plan, in water depths ranging from 1,000 to 1,800 meters, includes the drilling of seven producing wells and the installation of deep‑water subsea production systems tied back to Jangkrik FPU. For the North Hub, the project foresees the drilling of 16 producing wells at water depths between 1,700 and 2,000 meters, and the installation of subsea systems linked to a newly built FPSO capable of processing over 1 bscfd of gas and 90,000 bpd of condensate, with a storage capacity of 1.4 million barrels.

• Eni announces new gas discoveries in Libya totalling more than 1 Tcf. Eni made two new gas discoveries in Libya as a result of an exploration campaign initiated in the past months. Two adjacent geological structures, Bahr Essalam South 2 (BESS 2) and Bahr Essalam South 3 (BESS 3), were successfully drilled by the B2-16/4 and C1-16/4 wells, located approximately 85 km off the coast in about 650 feet of water, and 16 km south of the Bahr Essalam gas field. The acquired data indicate the presence of a high quality reservoir, with productive capacity confirmed by the well test already carried out on the first well. Preliminary volumetric estimates indicate that the BESS 2 and BESS 3 structures jointly contain more than 1 Tcf of gas in place.

• Carlyle to sell SierraCol Energy to Prime Infrastructure. Global investment firm Carlyle agreed to sell SierraCol Energy Limited (“SierraCol”), Colombia’s largest independent oil and gas exploration and production company, to Prime Infrastructure Capital. Carlyle invested in SierraCol in 2020 through Carlyle International Energy Partners (“CIEP”), a private equity fund that invests in energy opportunities globally. Carlyle, in partnership with the SierraCol management team, built SierraCol into a leading standalone Colombian energy company responsible for ~10% of Colombia’s gross oil production – all while adding reserves, continually reinvesting in its asset base and decarbonizing operations.

Downstream:

• Venture Global Announces Final Investment Decision and Financial Close for Phase 2 of CP2 LNG. Venture Global announced a final investment decision (FID) and successful closing of an $8.6 billion project financing for the second phase of the company’s third project, Venture Global CP2 LNG (CP2). CP2 will have a peak production capacity of 29 MTPA and has contracted to sell nearly all of its nameplate capacity on a long-term basis with customers predominantly located in Europe and Asia. Venture Global now has a total contracted capacity of over 49 MTPA, or nearly all of its nameplate capacity, across all three of its projects in Louisiana.

• bp sells Gelsenkirchen refinery to Klesch Group. bp reached an agreement to sell its Gelsenkirchen refinery and related businesses to Klesch Group, an independent European refiner. The transaction represents another significant milestone in bp’s acceleration of its strategy, including simplifying the portfolio, strengthening the balance sheet and focusing the downstream on its leading integrated businesses. bp is now targeting $6.5 to $7.5 billion of structural cost reductions by 2027, reflecting the expected savings of around $1 billion of underlying operating expenditure associated with Gelsenkirchen.

• Shell to sell Jiffy Lube International and Premium Velocity Auto to Monomoy Capital Partners. Shell USA entered an agreement to sell Jiffy Lube International (JLI) and its subsidiary Premium Velocity Auto (PVA) LLC business to an affiliate of Monomoy Capital Partners (Monomoy) for $1.3 billion. As part of this transaction, Pennzoil Quaker State Company has entered into a long-term lubricants supply agreement with Monomoy. The sale includes the Jiffy Lube brand and a network of franchised stores which are owned and operated by independent franchisees, in addition to franchised stores that are owned and operated by PVA. Shell will retain its Pennzoil Quaker State, Rotella and other Shell lubricants brands, along with marketing, manufacturing and distribution of lubricants in the U.S. and Canada that serve consumer, commercial and industrial sectors.

Trading & logistics:

• Venture Global and Vitol Announce New LNG Purchase Agreement. Venture Global and Vitol announced the execution of a new, binding agreement for the purchase of approximately 1.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Venture Global for five years commencing in 2026, to be supplied from Venture Global’s portfolio.

Energy Transition:

• TotalEnergies and EDF Sign a Long‑Term Partnership to Secure Low‑Carbon Electricity Supply. TotalEnergies and EDF Group signed a Nuclear Production Allocation Contract (Contrat d’Allocation de Production Nucléaire – CAPN) for a duration of 12 years, starting on January 1, 2028. Under this agreement, EDF will allocate to TotalEnergies a share of the output of its operating nuclear fleet. This allocation will enable TotalEnergies to cover around 60% of the electricity needs of its refining and chemicals sites in France, estimated at 400 MW.

• TotalEnergies Signs Agreements with U.S. DOI to End its U.S. Offshore Wind Projects. TotalEnergies signed settlement agreements with the United States Department of the Interior (DOI) to relinquish its Carolina Long Bay lease (Lease OCS-A 0545) and its New York Bight lease (Lease OCS-A 0538), both awarded in 2022, along with its partners. As a result, TotalEnergies will no longer develop offshore wind projects in the United States. Under the terms of the settlement, TotalEnergies will recover the lease fees paid and will invest an equal amount in the development of U.S. Gas & Power production and exports. TotalEnergies’ studies on these leases have shown that offshore wind developments in the United States, unlike those in Europe, are costly and might have a negative impact on power affordability for U.S. consumers. Since other technologies are available to meet the growing demand for electricity in the United States in a more affordable way, TotalEnergies considers there is no need to allocate capital to this technology in the U.S.

• TotalEnergies Starts Production at France’s First Advanced Plastics Recycling Plant. TotalEnergies launched France’s first advanced plastics recycling plant, with an annual capacity of 15,000 tons, at its Grandpuits site southeast of Paris. The new plant uses innovative recycling technology supplied by our partner Plastic Energy. It transforms hard-to-recycle plastic waste from French households, which is currently sent to landfill or incineration, into a synthetic oil through a pyrolysis process, involving heating the waste to high temperatures in an oxygen-free environment and under pressure. The synthetic oil is then treated as petrochemical feedstock, as a substitute for fossil fuels. It contributes to producing recycled plastics of the same quality as virgin plastics, compatible with the strictest requirements for food contact and medical applications.

• TotalEnergies and Holcim inaugurate Europe’s largest floating solar power plant. TotalEnergies and Holcim inaugurated a floating solar power plant with a capacity of 31 MW, located in Obourg on a former chalk quarry site that has been rehabilitated into a lake. The solar power plant produces 30 GWh per year of renewable electricity, which is self-consumed by Holcim’s industrial facilities.

• TotalEnergies partners with AllianzGI to develop 800 MW of battery storage projects in Germany. As part of its growth in electricity in Germany, TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI) for the sale of a 50% stake in a portfolio of 11 battery storage projects with a total capacity of 789 MW – 1628 MWh. With this agreement, the partners will deliver an investment of €500 million in critical energy infrastructure for Germany, of which 70% will be financed by the debt. These 11 projects, located across Germany, have been developed by Kyon Energy, a subsidiary of TotalEnergies, and will all be operational by 2028. Most of them will use next‑generation batteries supplied by Saft, a subsidiary of TotalEnergies and a global leader in high‑tech batteries. TotalEnergies will remain the operator of the assets.

• Equinor enters bio-methanol agreement with Wallenius Wilhelmsen. Equinor has entered into a 2-year bio-methanol supply agreement with Wallenius Wilhelmsen, a major global player in shipping and vehicle logistics, supporting a growing marine segment for low-carbon fuels. Soon bio-methanol from Equinor will fuel ships that are bringing cars and machinery from points of production to markets. Wallenius Wilhelmsen is a market leader in roll‑on/roll‑off (RoRo) shipping and vehicle logistics and will use the bio‑methanol as bunker fuel for its upcoming dual‑fuel methanol vessels. Wallenius Wilhelmsen will receive the bio-methanol bunkers at the Ports of Zeebrugge and Antwerp, positioning the partnership within key European maritime hubs. Supplies will commence in late 2026.

• Plenitude expands electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Spain. Plenitude, through its subsidiary Plenitude On The Road, will contribute to the development of the first corridor of ultra‑fast charging stations along the AP‑9 motorway in the Galicia region, Spain. Following the agreement signed with Autopistas del Atlántico, the company plans to install and operate 42 ultrafast charging points with power up to 300 kW, located in five of the seven service areas along the motorway.

• Plenitude and Methagora sign a 15-year partnership for the sourcing of biomethane in France. Plenitude and Methagora, a biomethane solutions developer and gas supplier, signed an agreement covering the sourcing in France of 50 GWh of biomethane per year over a 15-year period, in line with the French legislation concerning the Biomethane Production Certificates (BPC) scheme. Under the agreement, Methagora will sell Plenitude biomethane sourced from a range of agricultural areas in France. The supply of biomethane will contribute to support the development of the French biomethane sector.

• Trafigura closes JPY104.7 billion term loan facility. Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. refinanced its Japanese yen term loan facility (the “Samurai loan”) totalling JPY104.7 billion (c.USD661 million). The loan consisted of a 5-year tranche only for the first time and marks Trafigura’s eighth Samurai loan since entering the Japanese market in 2012.

• Trafigura’s MorGen Energy reaches Final Investment Decision for 20MW green hydrogen project in Wales. Trafigura, a market leader in the global commodities industry, today announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, MorGen Energy, has approved the final investment decision (FID) to begin construction of a 20MW1 green hydrogen production facility in Milford Haven, Wales. The West Wales Hydrogen project is among the first projects supported by the UK Government’s flagship hydrogen allocation round (HAR1) to achieve FID. With construction expected to begin in 2026 and commissioning by early 2028, the West Wales Hydrogen plant is set to produce approximately 2,000 tonnes per annum of low-carbon hydrogen, compliant with the UK’s Low Carbon Hydrogen Standard. The hydrogen will be used across a broad range of applications, including port decarbonisation, industrial heating, manufacturing and chemical feedstock.

• Trafigura signs battery-grade lithium carbonate offtake agreement with Smackover Lithium. Trafigura, a market leader in the global commodities industry, has signed a binding take-or-pay offtake agreement with Smackover Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium Ltd and Equinor, through subsidiaries of Equinor ASA, for the supply of battery-grade lithium carbonate from the South West Arkansas Project (the “SWA Project”). Under the agreement, Trafigura will purchase 8,000 metric tonnes per year of lithium carbonate over a 10-year period, totalling 80,000 tonnes, with deliveries beginning at the start of commercial production. The SWA Project is targeting initial production of 22,500 tonnes per annum of battery-quality lithium carbonate, with opportunity for further expansion. Smackover Lithium is expected to achieve Final Investment Decision for the SWA Project during 2026, with first production anticipated in 2028. The offtake agreement supports the development of domestic lithium production, strengthening US supply chain security for this critical mineral essential to battery manufacturing and technological development. The SWA Project will use direct lithium extraction technology to produce lithium from brine resources in the Smackover Formation in southern Arkansas.

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Key factors, influencing the market in February 2026:

Supply developments:

• The oil market in 2026 continues to grapple with a structural oversupply, with global supply growth still outpacing demand growth, according to recent industry assessments. Estimates suggest global supply could grow by ~2.4 mb/d in 2026 while demand grows by a lesser amount (~850–930 kb/d), keeping the market biased towards surplus overall.

• Early in the year, winter weather and disruptions (e.g., in Kazakhstan and other regions) temporarily reduced output; but forecasts indicate a rebound and continuing expansion later in 2026 as maintenance and weather-related cuts ease.

• One of the most significant drivers in February was escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the U.S., peaking with the start of full scaled attacks on February 28.

• The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, due to hostilities and attacks on stankrs sparked sharp price volatility, and analysts warned Brent could spike further if the disruption persists.

• Heightened conflict also threatened broader trade disruption, including redirection of cargoes, extended transit routes around Africa, and rising freight costs. All factors that have increased market risk premiums and supported prices despite fundamental oversupply.

Oil Demand Developments

• China’s energy demand remains muted: industrial and transport demand growth is relatively moderate.

• India continues to show demand resilience, supported by strong economic activity and consumption growth, though it is increasingly diversifying suppliers amid shipping disruptions.

• U.S. oil demand has held up reasonably well, but large U.S. crude stock builds in February illustrated that domestic consumption and exports have not absorbed the excess supply.

• Seasonal influences and maintenance cycles in refining weighed on fuel demand growth in parts of Europe.

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Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• bp confirms oil discovery offshore Angola. bp has confirmed an oil discovery in the Algaita-01 exploration well offshore Angola, reported by Azule Energy. Block 15/06, where the well was drilled, is operated by Azule Energy – a 50:50 joint venture between bp and Eni. Azule Energy is the operator of Block 15/06, with a working interest of 36.84%. Co-venturers are SSI (26.32%) and Sonangol E&P (36.84%).

• Chevron awarded four offshore leases for Greece exploration blocks. Chevron, via its four Dutch subsidiaries, together with HELLENiQ ENERGY signed Lease Agreements with the Hellenic Republic which will enable exploration of four blocks offshore Greece. The blocks are located south of Crete (South Crete 1, South Crete 2) and within the Peloponnese (South of Peloponnese, and Block A2). The awarded consortium, in which Chevron holds a 70% operating interest and HELLENiQ ENERGY a 30% interest, was selected following an international call for tender launched by the Greek government in 2025.

• Chevron enters Libya with new block award. Chevron by its subsidiary Chevron Business Development EMEA Ltd., has entered Libya after it was designated as a winning bidder in the 2025 Libyan Bid Round. Chevron was designated as the winning bidder for Contract Area 106 located in the Sirte Basin on February 11, 2026 in Libya’s 2025 Bidding Round.

• Equinor captures value through sale of Argentina onshore assets. Equinor signed an agreement with Vista Energy to divest its full onshore position in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin. The transaction includes Equinor’s 30% non-operated interest in the Bandurria Sur asset and its 50% non-operated interest in the Bajo del Toro asset. Equinor’s Argentinian offshore acreage is not affected by the transaction. The total consideration is valued at around USD 1.1 billion. At closing, Equinor will receive an upfront cash payment of USD 550 million as well as shares in Vista. The consideration also includes contingent payments linked to production and oil prices over a five-year period.

• ORLEN Acquires Stake in the Afrodite Discovery. ORLEN Upstream Norway agreed to acquire a 25% interest in production license PL293 in the North Sea from Vår Energi. The license covers the unconventional Afrodite gas discovery, which has the potential to deliver nearly 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas net to ORLEN.

• SOCAR, bp signed a cooperation agreement on seismic and well studies in the Caspian Basin. SOCAR and bp have signed a cooperation agreement on seismic and well studies in the Caspian Basin. Under this agreement, bp and SOCAR will conduct a pioneering seismic study that applies innovative technologies to create a regional pseudo 3D seismic volume by matching and merging existing seismic datasets of various vintages. This will be the first project of its kind undertaken in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea.The resulting pseudo 3D seismic volume is expected to greatly improve regional geological interpretation by reducing reliance on individual 2D seismic lines. It will enable basin scale 3D mapping, enhance the understanding of exploration potential, and help derisk future exploration plays across the Caspian basin.

• MOL Group to enter Libya in joint venture with Repsol and Türkiye Petrolleri. MOL Group further expands its international portfolio by entering Libya through a successful joint bidding with Repsol and Türkiye Petrolleri A. O. (TPAO) for an offshore exploration area in the Mediterranean Sea. In the joint venture, Repsol will be the operator of the project with 40% share, TPAO also holds 40% and MOL Group enters the project with a 20% share.

• TotalEnergies Expands its Exploration Portfolio as Operator of PEL104 License. TotalEnergies signed agreements to acquire a 42.5% operated interest in PEL104 Exploration license, located offshore Namibia, from Eight Offshore Investments Holdings (“Eight”) and Maravilla Oil & Gas. Upon completion of the transaction, TotalEnergies will be the operator of the license holding a 42.5% interest alongside Petrobras (42.5%), Namcor (10%) and Eight (5%). Located in the Lüderitz basin, PEL104 license covers an area of around 11,000 km2 offshore Namibia.

• Eni awarded a new offshore exploration license in Libya. Eni has been awarded the offshore exploration License O1 following the Libyan NOC’s competitive 2025 open licensing round. The concession has been granted to a consortium led by Eni in partnership with QatarEnergy, marking a significant step forward in strengthening Eni’s upstream position in the country. Covering approximately 29.000 sqkm, the block lies in the offshore extension of the prolific Sirte Oil & Gas Province.

• Eni starts up start-up Ndungu field in Angola. Eni announces the start-up of the Ndungu full-field, part of the Agogo Integrated West Hub Project (IWH), in the western area of Block 15/06, offshore Angola. The project comprises seven production wells and four injection wells, with an expected production peak of 60,000 barrels of oil per day.

• Eni, YPF and XRG Sign Joint Development Agreement Advancing Argentina LNG. Eni, YPF and XRG signed a binding Joint Development Agreement (JDA) to advance Argentina LNG. This large-scale integrated gas and liquefaction project will unlock Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale basin and help position the country as a long-term global LNG supplier. Argentina LNG is expected to deliver 12 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity, via two floating LNG facilities with a capacity of 6 mtpa each.

• Eni confirms a discovery offshore Côte d’Ivoire. Eni made a significant gas and condensate discovery in Côte d’Ivoire, successfully drilling Murene South-1X, the first exploration well in Block CI-501. The discovery, named Calao South, confirms the potential of the Calao channel complex that includes also the Calao discovery and represents the second largest in the country after Baleine, with estimated volumes of up to 5.0 Tcf of gas and 450 million barrels of condensate (approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil).

Trading & Logistics

• Equinor and Eneco sign 5-year gas agreement for supplies to the Netherlands. Equinor and Eneco have signed a 5-year agreement for deliveries of gas to Eneco, a main supplier of natural gas, electricity and heat in the Netherlands. The volumes are up to 0.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year with deliveries to the Dutch gas grid from 1 February this year.

• TotalEnergies Signs Agreement to Export 2 Mtpa of LNG for 20 years from the Alaska LNG Project. TotalEnergies signed a preliminary agreement (Letter of Intent) with Glenfarne, the lead developer of the Alaska LNG project, for the long-term offtake of 2 million tons per year (Mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over 20 years. The future Alaska LNG project, located on the U.S. Pacific coast, is the only federally authorized LNG export terminal in this region. It plans a total capacity of 20 Mtpa, with direct access to Asia, the world’s largest LNG market, offering a reliable solution for Asia’s energy security and strengthening transpacific ties.

• Venture Global to supply LNG to Hanwha Aerospace Co. Venture Global and Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. signed a new Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for the purchase of 1.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Venture Global for twenty years starting in 2030. This agreement brings Venture Global’s long-term contracted portfolio to over 46 MTPA.

• Trafigura signs loan agreement to support the long-term supply of critical metals to German industry. Trafigura signed a USD1.1 billion five-year loan to support the long-term supply of critical metals into Germany. The loan is guaranteed by the government of the Federal Republic of Germany, acting through the German Export Credit Agency (“ECA”), Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft (“Euler Hermes”). It has been arranged by Commerzbank AG and financed by a pool of eight lenders. The agreement marks Trafigura’s third guaranteed facility with Euler Hermes, following a USD800 million five-year loan signed in 2022 for the supply of refined non-ferrous metals, and a USD3 billion four-year loan signed in 2022 to secure German gas supply.

Downstream:

• Aramco’s launches major gas projects. Aramco announced major progress in its ambitious gas expansion strategy, with the start of production at Jafurah, the Middle East’s largest unconventional gas field, and the commencement of operations at Tanajib Gas Plant, one of the largest gas plants in the world. This will contribute to Aramco’s plan to increase sales gas production capacity by approximately 80% by 2030, over 2021 production levels, reaching approximately 6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day of total gas and associated liquids production.

• Eni confirms investment in biorefining in Sannazzaro de’ Burgondi. The final investment decision (FID) has also been approved for Eni’s plan to convert certain units of the Sannazzaro de’ Burgondi refinery (Pavia, Lombardy) into a biorefinery. The project involves the conversion of the Hydrocracker (HDC2) unit using Ecofining™ technology as well as the construction of a pre-treatment unit for waste and residues, which are the main feedstocks used by Enilive to produce HVO biofuels. The new biorefinery in Sannazzaro de’ Burgondi will have the capacity to produce 550,000 tonnes/year of feedstock, with the flexibility to produce SAF-biojet and HVO diesel.

• Eni and Q8 partner for the construction of the Priolo biorefinery. Eni and Q8 Italy announced a major strategic investment in the ongoing project for the construction of a new biorefinery in Priolo, Sicily. The transformation plan for the Versalis site in Priolo received formal approval from Eni and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Board of Directors, which follows the official binding offer submitted by Q8.

  The Priolo biorefinery will have a capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year and will offer extensive operational flexibility for the production of Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF-Biojet), in order to meet market dynamics and demand.

Energy Transition:

• TotalEnergies to Supply Renewable Electricity to Airbus in Germany and the United Kingdom. TotalEnergies and Airbus, a leading aircraft manufacturer, have signed two clean firm power contracts to supply 3.3 TWh to all major Airbus sites located in Germany and the United Kingdom. The electricity supplied to Airbus into the next decade will have a baseload profile and come from new renewable assets with a capacity of 200 MW. This supply will cover half of the electricity needs of the sites concerned, starting from 2027.

• Eni and CDP Venture Capital invest in startup EXE Engineering. Eni, together with CDP Venture Capital, invested €550,000 and announced a collaboration with the startup EXE Engineering in the field of carbon offsetting initiatives in Africa. This new investment will enable the startup to accelerate its roadmap and support the expansion of its projects into new operating contexts, including international growth in Europe and Africa.

Feel free to contact us if you have any questions, specific requests, or/and would like to request bespoke analysis & consulting on oil & gas markets, pricing, and strategy.

• Demand in 2040 is expected to be 5 million bpd higher than today. Minimal decline during the latter part of the next decade does not reverse the continued year-on-year increase in oil use over the next few years.

• Gasoline and gasoil demand begins to moderate and is anticipated to fall as the electrification of road transport continues and gasoil use in other sectors declines.

• Road transport fuels - representing roughly half of the barrel today - remain the primary determinant of the global oil demand trajectory.

• Slower near-term passenger car EV uptake in the US and parts of Asia is only partly counterbalanced by faster adoption in emerging markets and a more constructive outlook for electric heavy commercial vehicles (eHCVs). This has moderated the expected decline in demand versus last year’s base case and underpins our February 2026 outlook.

• In the absence of any disruptive technologies over the forecast horizon, jet fuel and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) demand (for residential and commercial use and petrochemical feedstocks) are expected to continue to rise.

Kpler published an interesting article Refined products: Top 5 market drivers in 2026, addressing the challenges for global products markets:

• Global oil markets enter 2026 at a fragile inflection point, shaped by unresolved geopolitical risk, structural refining shifts, and a decisive rebalancing of liquids demand.

• While easing inventories and capacity additions offer tentative relief after a volatile 2025, sanctions enforcement, delayed mega-refinery deliveries, and rising conversion intensity continue to skew balances—particularly in middle distillates.

• At the same time, growth is increasingly led by NGLs and petrochemicals rather than transport fuels, with China accelerating its pivot away from gasoline and diesel.

You can access the original publications via:

https://vitoloutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Vitol-long-term-oil-demand-outlook_Feb-2026.pdf

https://www.kpler.com/blog/refined-products-top-5-market-drivers-in-2026

Source: EIA

Key factors, influencing the market in January 2026:

Supply developments:

• The global oil market is expected to remain in a deep surplus in Q1 2026 as supply continues to outpace demand growth.

• Supply growth is being driven by both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, including sustained production from the U.S., Saudi Arabia and others, despite the group’s decision to pause further output hikes in Q1.

• Following ousting of Maduro, the U.S. issued new licenses allowing U.S. diluent exports to Venezuela, crucial for enabling heavy crude to be exportable, and expanded permissions for Venezuelan oil trade/processing.

• Venezuelan oil exports jumped sharply in January to ~800,000 bpd, up from about 498,000 bpd in December, after renewed export activity under U.S. oversight.

• Kazakh supply interruptions in early January provided temporary tightening upside, lifting prices briefly.

• Russian fuel oil exports to Asia slowed due to tighter sanctions enforcement, complicating trade flows.

• Late January, heightened U.S.-Iran tensions are pushing prices up due to risk of supply disruption in strategically vital shipping routes.

Oil Demand Developments

• Oversupply has prompted inventory builds globally, including commercial crude stock increases, particularly in China and the U.S..

• Freezing weather across the United States and parts of Europe drove a sharp increase in heating demand, reversing earlier expectations of a mild winter..

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• TotalEnergies Signs the Extension of the Waha Concessions until 2050. This agreement sets new fiscal terms allowing to increase the production of these concessions that are currently producing around 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Therefore, it paves the way for a new phase of investments, including the development of the North Gialo field, which is expected to add 100,000 boe/d of production.

• TotalEnergies sells 10% interest in JV in Nigeria. TotalEnergies EP Nigeria signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Vaaris for the sale of its 10% non-operated interest in the Renaissance JV licenses in Nigeria. Under the agreement signed with Vaaris:

  • TotalEnergies EP Nigeria will sell to Vaaris its 10% participating interest and all its rights and obligations in 15 licenses of Renaissance JV, which are producing mainly oil. Production from these licenses represented approximately 16,000 barrels equivalent per day in Company share in 2025.

  • TotalEnergies EP Nigeria will also transfer to Vaaris its 10% participating interest in the 3 other licenses of Renaissance JV which are producing mainly gas (OML 23, OML 28 and OML 77), while TotalEnergies will retain full economic interest in these licenses which currently account for 50% of Nigeria LNG gas supply.

• TotalEnergies enters Block 8 offshore exploration permit. TotalEnergies (35%, operator) and its partners Eni (35%) and QatarEnergy (30%) have signed an agreement with the Lebanese government to enter Block 8 exploration permit offshore Lebanon.

• Chevron reaches FID to expand Leviathan production platform located offshore Israel. The project includes drilling three additional offshore wells, adding additional subsea infrastructure, and enhancing the treatment facilities on the Leviathan production platform as we progress towards increasing total gas delivery to Israel and the region to approximately 21 billion cubic meters (BCM) annually from the Leviathan reservoir.

• ORLEN Announces Gas Discovery in the North Sea. ORLEN Upstream Norway, in partnership with Equinor, discovered new natural gas resources on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The company expects to produce approximately 1 billion cubic meters of gas from the Sissel discovery, which will be transported to Poland via the Baltic Pipe. The discovery was made in the PL1137 license area, located in the central part of the North Sea, 250 kilometers southwest of Stavanger. Despite the stormy season, the drilling was completed in 39 days.

• ORLEN Secures New Licenses on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. ORLEN Upstream Norway was offered stakes in six new exploration and production licenses by the Norwegian Ministry of Energy, following the APA 2025 licensing round.

• Eni sells 10% in Baleine Project to SOCAR. Eni signed a binding agreement with SOCAR for the sale of a 10% stake in the Baleine Project - the Ivorian main offshore development operated by Eni (47.25%), and participated by Vitol (30%) and Petroci (22.75%). Baleine is Eni’s first development in the country, and the first net-zero emission development in Africa. Currently, Baleine produces over 62,000 barrels of oil and more than 75 million cubic feet of gas per day from Phases 1 and 2. With the launch of Phase 3, production is expected to rise to 150,000 barrels of oil and 200 million cubic feet of gas per day, positioning Baleine as a cornerstone in meeting the country’s domestic energy needs.

• ADNOC reaches FID for the SARB Deep Gas Development. ADNOC announced the Final Investment Decision (FID) for the SARB Deep Gas Development, a strategic project within the Ghasha Concession located offshore of Abu Dhabi. The development will deliver 200 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) of gas before the end of the decade, enough energy to power more than 300,000 homes daily.

Downstream:

• Phillips 66 agrees to acquire Lindsey Oil Refinery assets. Phillips 66 Limited agreed to acquire Lindsey Oil Refinery assets and associated infrastructure. The announcement follows a bidding process handled by FTI Consulting, who began serving as special managers of the Lindsey Oil Refinery assets after the Official Receiver was appointed liquidator in June 2025. The company also announced that it plans to integrate key assets into its Humber Refinery operations. Following a thorough assessment undertaken during the bid process, the company has decided to not restart standalone refinery operations at the Lindsey Oil Refinery.

Trading & Logistics:

• TotalEnergies, Bapco Energies launch BxT Trading. TotalEnergies and Bapco Energies are launching BxT Trading, an equally owned trading joint venture backed by flows from Bapco Energies’ Refinery. BxT Trading will support Bahrain’s oil industry by leveraging its downstream portfolio for maximizing value and broadening its access to global markets.

• Eni and its partners launch hull of the Coral North FLNG. Eni and its partners, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), ENH, KOGAS and XRG announced the hull launch of the Coral North FLNG, fully in line with the project schedule. Coral North will be the second state-of-the-art floating LNG facility to be deployed in the Rovuma Basin waters, offshore Cabo Delgado, north of Mozambique, and will bring to production the gas from the northern part of Coral gas reservoir. With a 3.6 MTPA liquefaction capacity, Coral North will double Mozambique’s total LNG output to 7 MTPA.

• SOCAR begins supplying Azerbaijani gas to Austria and Germany. Starting from January 2026, Azerbaijani gas is being supplied among others to the buyers from Austria and Germany. The gas supply to Austria and Germany via Italy further expands the geographical reach of Azerbaijani gas in Europe.

• BPCL and Trafigura sign landmark crude oil supply agreement. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Trafigura announced a new crude oil supply agreement. Under the agreement, Trafigura has been awarded a tender to supply Iraqi Basrah and Oman crude oil to BPCL on term basis. Delivery will begin in April 2026.

• Trafigura completes first crude export using new Derivación pipeline in Argentina. Late December 2025, the tanker vessel VS Pride loaded 71,000 m³ of crude oil from producers in the Neuquén Basin bound for the United States. The export was carried out from Dock No. 3 in Puerto Galván, using the logistics system of the Bahía Blanca Refinery and the Derivación Pipeline recently inaugurated by Trafigura. This new pipeline, a strategic investment made by Trafigura together with Oldelval, enables direct connection of the main pipeline system with Dock No. 3 in Puerto Galván, alleviating operational restrictions and optimising operating capacity.

• BEST, Vitol extend Strategic LNG Sales Agreement. Brunei Energy Services & Trading (BEST) and Vitol announced the extension of their Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA). The original agreement, signed in 2022 with deliveries commencing in 2023, established a supply of approximately 0.4 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to Vitol’s Asian operations over a five-year term. Under the newly signed extension, BEST will continue to supply Vitol with up to four LNG cargoes per annum from 2028 through 2031.

Energy Transition:

• Corteva and bp launch biofuel feedstock joint venture Etlas. Corteva Inc. and bp launched Etlas, their new 50:50 joint venture that will produce oil from crops – including canola, mustard and sunflower – for use in the production of biofuels like sustainable (or synthetic) aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel (RD). Etlas aims to produce one million metric tonnes of feedstock per year by the mid-2030s, which could produce over 800 thousand tonnes of biofuel.

• TotalEnergies to Supply Renewable Electricity to Paper Manufacturer SWM. TotalEnergies and SWM, a major player in the paper industry, announce the signing of a contract for the supply of renewable electricity with a constant delivery profile (Clean Firm Power) to SWM’s three plants in France (Papeteries de Saint Girons, PDM Industries, and LTR Industries). The contract will begin in January 2026 for a duration of 10 years and will represent a total volume of 800 GWh.

• OMV receives EUR 123 mn in funding for the largest green hydrogen project in Austria. OMV and Austria Wirtschaftsservice GmbH (aws) signed a funding agreement that will guarantee production funding of up to EUR 123 million for the planned green hydrogen plant in Bruck an der Leitha (Lower Austria). The project was previously assessed positively and recommended for funding by the European Hydrogen Bank (EHB).

• ORLEN to procure hydrogen from Finland. ORLEN entered into cooperation agreements with three Finnish partners for the production and supply of renewable hydrogen and its derivatives. The agreements signed with ABO Energy Suomi, Nordic Ren-Gas and VolagHy Kuopio SPV will help secure hydrogen supplies during a period of growing demand in the years ahead.

• Vitol Inc. acquires full ownership of US biofuel producer. Vitol acquired full ownership of Mid America Agri Products / Wheatland, LLC and its parent company, Mid America Bio Energy & Commodities, LLC. Vitol has been a shareholder in MAAPW and the exclusive marketer of MAAPW ethanol since 2018.

• Repsol installs its second 100-MW electrolyzer at Petronor. Repsol is making further progress in its industrial decarbonization strategythrough renewable hydrogen and will install its second large-scale electrolyzer at its Petronor refinery in Muskiz close to Bilbao in Northern Spain. The new 100 MW infrastructure will require an investment of €292 million for commissioning in 2029. The electrolyzer will have the capacity to produce up to 15,000 tons of renewable hydrogen per year, which will mainly be used in processes at the Petronor the refinery itself.

• ADNOC, TAQA to supply critical utilities to the TA’ZIZ Industrial Chemicals Zone. ADNOC and Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC (TAQA) signed a 27-year Utilities Purchase Agreement to supply critical utilities to the TA’ZIZ Industrial Chemicals Zone in Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi. Under the agreement ADNOC and TAQA will jointly develop the central utilities project, including the electricity grid connection, steam production, process cooling, and a range of water and wastewater utilities required to enable TA’ZIZ’s chemicals and transition-fuels projects.

• Trafigura signs offtake agreement for advanced sustainable aviation fuel produced from biogas. Trafigura signed a binding six-year offtake agreement with SP Developments Uruguay S.A. to purchase advanced sustainable aviation fuel (“SAF”) from Syzygy’s first commercial facility, located in Uruguay. The agreement covers the entire production volume from Syzygy’s flagship biogas-to-SAF project, with first deliveries targeted in 2028. It also includes an option for Trafigura to purchase additional volumes from Syzygy’s future projects.

• CF Industries, Trafigura and TFG Marine sign MOU to advance low-carbon ammonia for maritime decarbonisation. CF Industries Holdings Inc., Trafigura, and TFG Marine announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to facilitate the adoption of low-carbon ammonia as a marine fuel.

• Trafigura signs up to USD800 million critical metals insurance policy with Saudi EXIM Bank. Trafigura and the Saudi Export-Import Bank (“Saudi EXIM”) signed a first-of-its kind critical metals insurance policy. The policy will support multi-year prepayment transactions with mining companies worldwide, with an expected value of up to USD800 million (SAR3 billion). Under the agreement, Saudi EXIM will provide credit insurance for prepayment facilities provided by Trafigura to mining companies. The first transaction to be covered under this policy is a copper prepayment facility to a global metals producer – the first financing of this type to be backed by credit insurance from an Export Credit Agency.

  Feel free to contact us if you have any questions, spesific requests, or/and would like to request bespoke analysis & consulting on oil & gas markets, pricing, and strategy.

Source: EIA

Key factors, influencing the market in December 2025:

Supply developments:

• Global oil supply in 2025 remained robust, with production growth exceeding demand for much of the year, contributing to an ongoing supply glut that carried into December.

• OPEC+ maintained output policy, opting not to raise supply further as the group heads into early 2026, reflecting caution given signs of oversupply and demand uncertainty.

• China accelerated crude stockpiling, particularly in November and into December, as weaker price trends encouraged storage accumulation.

• Open question how US ousting of Maduro in January 2026 will impact oil supplies from Venezuela

Oil Demand Developments

• India’s fuel demand reached a record high in December, with consumption rising across gasoline, diesel, and LPG, which highlights strong emerging-market demand.

• Winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere supported distillate consumption, offering some short-term demand support in December.

• However, overall global liquid fuel demand growth remained modest compared with supply expansion, with major agencies projecting demand gains mainly in non-OECD regions.

• Chinese demand was mixed: while stocks increased, broader consumption trends showed sluggish industrial growth and weaker crude imports relative to historical patterns.

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• bp appoints new CEO. The bp Board appointed Meg O’Neill as bp’s next chief executive officer, effective 1 April 2026. Murray Auchincloss decided to step down from his position as CEO and director of the Board, effective December 18, 2025. Carol Howle, current executive vice president, supply, trading & shipping of bp, will serve as interim CEO until Meg joins as CEO. Murray will serve in an advisory role until December 2026 to ensure a smooth transition.

• bp starts up major project in US Gulf. bp successfully delivered first oil from the Atlantis Drill Center 1 expansion project in the US Gulf of America. The project is expected to add 15,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) gross peak annualized average production at the existing Atlantis platform. Atlantis, one of bp’s longest-running platforms in the Gulf of America, has a gross production capacity of up to 200,000 barrels of oil per day.

• TotalEnergies concludes agreement with Galp for PEL 83 license. TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Galp Energia SGPS SA under which:

  • TotalEnergies is to acquire from Galp a 40% operated interest in PEL83, which includes the Mopane discovery;

  • Galp is to acquire from TotalEnergies a 10% participating interest in PEL56, which includes the Venus discovery, and a 9.39% participating interest in PEL91;

  • TotalEnergies will carry 50% of Galp’s capital expenditures for the exploration and appraisal of the Mopane discovery and the first development on PEL83. The carry will be repaid through 50% of Galp’s future cash flows from the project.

• TotalEnergies merges its UK Upstream business with NEO NEXT. TotalEnergies signed an agreement with NEO NEXT Energy Limited (NEO NEXT) under which TotalEnergies will merge its Upstream business with NEO NEXT and become the leading shareholder in the expanded NEO NEXT, which will be renamed NEO NEXT+, with a 47.5% ownership.After completion of the transaction, NEO NEXT+ will be jointly owned by TotalEnergies (47.5%), HitecVision(28.875%) and Repsol UK (23.625%) and encompass a large and diverse asset portfolio including notably NEO Energy’s and Repsol UK’s interests in the Elgin/Franklin complex and the Penguins, Mariner, Shearwater and Culzean fields, enriched by TotalEnergies’ UK Upstream assets, notably including its interests in the Elgin/Franklin complex and the Alwyn North, Dunbar and Culzean fields.

  With TotalEnergies as its leading shareholder, NEO NEXT+ will become the largest independent oil and gas producer in the UK with a production over 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026.

• Shell invests in Kaikias waterflood to unlock production in Gulf of America. Shell Offshore took a final investment decision (FID) on a waterflood project at its Kaikias field in the US Gulf of America. Water will be injected to displace additional oil in the reservoir formation which supplies production to Shell’s Ursa platform in the Mars Corridor. Waterflood is a method of secondary recovery where the injected water physically sweeps the displaced oil to adjacent production wells, while re-pressurizing the reservoir. First injection is expected in 2028 and is anticipated to extend the production lifecycle of Ursa by several years.

• Shell grows interest in Atapu and Mero units offshore Brazil. Shell Brasil secured additional equity in Brazil’s pre-salt oil projects following an auction led by Pré-Sal Petróleo. With this acquisition, Shell Brasil increased its participating interest in the units from 16.663% to 16.917% in Atapu and from 19.3% to 20% in Mero. Both projects are located in the offshore Santos Basin. This investment strengthens Shell’s position in areas where we have existing assets and supports the company’s aim to sustain material liquids production of 1.4 million barrels per day through 2030.

• Shell and Equinor complete formation of Adura. Adura assumes Equinor and Shell’s interests in 12 producing oil and gas assets and projects in execution, including: Mariner, Rosebank, Buzzard, Shearwater, Penguins, Gannet, Nelson, Pierce, Jackdaw, Victory, Clair and Schiehallion. It also holds a number of exploration licenses. The company is headquartered in Aberdeen. Staff from both Shell and Equinor have transferred into Adura, ensuring that industry-leading expertise is retained.

• Chevron announces 2026 capex budget of $18 to $19 billion. Chevron Corporation announced an organic capital expenditure range of $18 to $19 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) for 2026, at the low-end of the long-term guidance range of $18 to $21 billion.

  • Affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) is expected to be $1.3 to $1.7 billion for 2026.

  • Total U.S. spend is anticipated to be about $10.5 billion, more than half of the 2026 capex budget.

  • Upstream is expected to be approximately $17.0 billion.

  • Downstream capex is expected to be approximately $1.0 billion, with nearly three-fourths allocated to the U.S.

• Equinor makes new discoveries in the North Sea. Equinor made two new discoveries of gas and condensate in the Sleipner area of the North Sea. These are Equinor’s largest discoveries so far this year and can be developed for the European market through existing infrastructure. The two wells, Lofn and Langemann in production license 1140, are located between the Gudrun and Eirin fields. Preliminary estimates indicate that the reservoirs may contain between 5 and 18 million standard cubic meters of recoverable oil equivalents, corresponding to 30 to 110 million barrels.

• ORLEN Expands in Norway with New Field Acquisitions and Development Project. ORLEN’s Norwegian subsidiary completed the purchase of equity in the Albuskjell and Vest Ekofisk fields in the North Sea, adding approximately 8 million barrels of oil equivalent to its resource base. Both fields, together with TommelitenGamma, are part of the Previously Produced Fields (PPF) Project which has been recently sanctioned for development. Once brought online, those three fields will increase ORLEN Upstream Norway production by 420 million cubic meters of gas annually.

• Eni makes a significant gas discovery in Indonesia. Eni announces a significant gas discovery in the Konta-1 exploration well, drilled in the Muara Bakau PSC, in the Kutei Basin, about 50 km off the coast of East Kalimantan in Indonesia. Estimates indicate 600 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas initially in place (GIIP) with a potential upside beyond 1 trillion cubic feet (TCF).

Downstream & retail:

• bp divests Castrol to Stonepeak. bp reached an agreement to sell a 65% shareholding in Castrol to Stonepeak, at an enterprise value of $10.1 billion. The transaction is expected to result in total net proceeds to bp of approximately $6.0 billion, which includes around $0.8 billion for the pre-payment of future dividend income over the short to medium term on bp’s retained 35% stake and other adjustments. The implied total equity value of Castrol is $8.0 billion after deducting JV minority interests totaling $1.8 billion, and other debt-like obligations of around $0.3 billion, and subject to customary adjustments. Upon completion of the transaction a new joint venture will be incorporated comprising a 65% Stonepeak and 35% bp ownership.

• Orlen takes control of key petrochemical unit in deal with Synthos. ORLEN signed an agreement with Synthos to acquire full ownership of S54, the company developing a new butadiene extraction unit. Once completed, the unit will become an integral part of ORLEN’s Production Plant in Płock, allowing the Group to preserve an extended petrochemical value chain. The transaction was valued at approximately PLN 692 million.

• Plenitude buys stake in ACEA Energia. Plenitude and ACEA S.p.A. have signed a binding agreement regarding the acquisition by Plenitude of a 100% equity stake in ACEA Energia, a company fully owned by the ACEA Group that operates in the energy retail market. The transaction also includes a 50% share in the capital of Umbria Energy S.p.A. Upon completion of the transaction, Plenitude will pay ACEA €460 million, in addition to recognizing normalized net cash of up to €127 million for a total amount of up to €587 million. This consideration will be subject to standard adjustment mechanisms for this type of transaction (e.g. ticking fee / leakage). As a result of this acquisition, Plenitude will incorporate into its portfolio over 1.4 million retail customers in Italy, thus exceeding the total of 11 million customers in Europe and anticipating by two years the customer base target expected for 2028.

• ExxonMobil, Aramco and Samref to consider upgrade of Samref refinery. ExxonMobil, Aramco and Samref have signed a Venture Framework Agreement (VFA) to evaluate a significant upgrade of the Samref refinery, in Yanbu, and an expansion of the facility into an integrated petrochemical complex. The companies will explore capital investments to upgrade and diversify production, including high-quality distillates that result in lower emissions and high-performance chemicals, as well as opportunities to improve the refinery’s and reduce emissions from operations through an integrated emissions-reduction strategy.

Trading & Logistics:

• Eni to supply LNG to Thailand. Eni entered into a long-term LNG sales agreement with Thailand’s Gulf Development Company. Under the transaction, Eni agrees to sell 0.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG for 10 years to Gulf, one of Thailand’s largest private power producers. The LNG will be delivered at regasification terminals located in the country starting from 2027. This contract follows a 2-year deal signed by the two corporations in 2024, for the supply of approximately 0.5MTPA of LNG starting in 2025.

• Eni to supply LNG to Turkey. Eni entered a long-term LNG sale agreement with Turkish company BOTAŞ. Under the transaction Eni has agreed to supply BOTAŞ approximately 0.4 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG for 10 years starting from 2028. This contract follows a 3-year deal signed by the two corporations in September 2025, for the supply of approximately 0.4 MTPA of LNG starting in November 2025.

• Gunvor management competes management buy-out. Members of the management of Gunvor Group announced successful management-led buy-out of the Company from existing ownership. Under the agreement, majority owner Torbjörn Törnqvist will sell the entirety of his holdings in favor of a group of current employees, who will wholly own the Company going forward. There will continue to be no outside ownership or interests. Gary Pedersen was appointed as chief executive officer of the Company.

Energy transition:

• TotalEnergies divests 50% of renewable portfolio in Greece. TotalEnergies closed the sale to Asterion Industrial Partners of 50% of its 424 MW wind and solar portfolio in Greece. This transaction values the portfolio at €508 million, equivalent to approximately €1.2 million per MW installed. TotalEnergies retains a 50% stake and remains the operator of the assets. Besides, TotalEnergies will offtake and market most of the electricity produced by these assets when they stop benefiting from the regulated tariffs.

• TotalEnergies Signs New Renewable Power Agreement with Google to Supply Data Centers. TotalEnergies and Google signed a 21-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) to supply Google with a total volume of 1 TWh (equivalent to 20 MW) of certified renewable power from the Citra Energies solar plant in the northern Kedah province. The solar farm, which is scheduled to enter construction in early 2026, will support Google’s data center operations in Malaysia.

• TotalEnergies, TES, Osaka Gas, Toho Gas and ITOCHU Partner Up to Develop the Live Oak Project. TotalEnergies, TES, Osaka Gas, Toho Gas, and ITOCHU signed a Joint Development and Operating Agreement, granting the Japanese companies a combined 33.3% stake in the Live Oak project — a large-scale facility to produce electric natural gas (e-NG) also known as e-methane, initiated by TotalEnergies and TES and currently under development in Nebraska, United States. Following the agreement, TotalEnergies and TES will each maintain a 33.35% stake in the project.The partners are now preparing the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) phase, targeting a capacity of approximately 250 MW of electrolysis and 75 ktpa of methanation. The project, subject to a Final Investment Decision in 2027, is scheduled to begin commercial operations by 2030, with plans to export e-NG to Japan. Osaka Gas and Toho Gas will be the primary offtakers.

• Plenitude launches Caparacena solar project in Chimeneas (Granada). The project, one of the most significant in the company’s portfolio in Spain, covers 264 hectares and comprises three photovoltaic parks of 50 MW each. The complex, which incorporates over 274,000 bifacial modules and has a total installed capacity of 150 MWp will be able to generate approximately 320 GWh of electricity annually.

• Repsol advances its renewable energy strategy in the United States with a new deal with Stonepeak. The investment firm specializing in infrastructure and real assets agreed to acquire a 43.8% stake in Repsol’s Outpost solar project, located in Webb County, Texas, for $252.5 million (€220 million). The transaction implies a valuation of the asset of approximately $775 million (€675 million), including tax equity proceeds raised through the monetization of PTCs received by the project. Outpost, with an installed capacity of 629 MW, began commercial operation this August and benefits from a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA), reinforcing its attractiveness to investors.

• Repsol and Toyota Spain to promote the decarbonization of transport. Repsol and Toyota Spain signed an agreement to jointly promote the decarbonization of transport and energy solutions in the automotive sector. The agreement covers the development of multi-technology projects, such as comprehensive electric charging solutions, power supply, renewable fuels, solar power generation, emissions offsetting, and energy efficiency measures. One of the most significant initiatives in the agreement is the comprehensive solution for Toyota dealerships, which includes the supply of 100% renewable electricity, the installation and maintenance of solar panels, electric charging points, and the use of renewable fuels. With this, Toyota and Repsol are promoting the decarbonization and energy transformation of the manufacturer’s commercial network in Spain.

• ADNOC secures green financing. ADNOC signed a $2 billion (AED 7.34 billion) green financing agreement backed by Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (K-SURE) to fund lower carbon projects across its operations. The K-SURE backed facility, structured under ADNOC’s Sustainable Finance Framework, will facilitate the financing of eligible projects compliant with international sustainable finance market standards. Sustainable Fitch provided an independent Second Party Opinion, confirming alignment of ADNOC’s Sustainable Finance Framework with global sustainable finance principles.

Source: EIA

Key factors, influencing the market in November 2025:

Supply developments:

• According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply is projected to grow by 3.1 million barrels/day (bpd) in 2025, and by 2.5 mb/d in 2026, which is indicating continued material additions to production capacity.

• In early November, OPEC+ announced a modest production increase for December, but also said it would pause further increases through the first quarter of 2026. The decision reflects growing concern over a possible supply glut.

• On the U.S. side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) adjusted upward its forecast for U.S. oil production: the U.S. is expected to set a new production record in 2025, which adds further supply pressure to global markets.

Oil Demand Developments

• The IEA’s November report notes demand growth rebounded in 3Q 2025 to roughly +920 kb/d, helped by stronger consumption in major economies such as China, the U.S., and Nigeria.

• Still demand growth remains modest relative to the pace of supply expansion. The supply/demand balance appears increasingly tilted toward surplus.

• OECD countries recorded a decline, while non-OECD demand, particularly in India, rose modestly, driven by LPG, gasoline, naphtha, and diesel consumption.

• Seasonal demand is weaker as the northern-hemisphere moves into the shoulder period (refinery maintenance, lower mobility) which tends to reduce consumption of transport fuels.

• The transition to electric vehicles, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and trade tension (especially between the US and China) contributed to softer consumption growth.

• Geopolitical risks (e.g., announced sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, disruptions to Russian exports infrastructure, etc) continue to provide occasional price support or volatility spikes.

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• Shell completes acquisition of increased interest in Nigeria’s deep-water Bonga field. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) completed the previously announced agreement and increased its stake in the OML 118 Production Sharing Contract (OML 118 PSC) from 55% to 65%.

• Aramco signs 17 (MoUs) and agreements with major companies in the US. MoUs and agreements have potential total value of more than $30bn, building on 34 MoUs and agreements announced in May that had a potential total value of approximately $90bn. Projects in focus span LNG, financial services, advanced materials manufacturing, and procurement of materials and services.

• Eni to participate in Argentina LNG (ARGLNG) project. Eni and YPF signed a non-binding agreement with XRG, part of the ADNOC Group, regarding Eni’ potential involvement in the 12 MTPA liquefied natural gas (LNG) phase of the integrated upstream-midstream Argentina LNG (ARGLNG) project. ARGLNG is a large-scale, integrated upstream and midstream gas development project designed to develop the resources of the onshore “Vaca Muerta” field and serve international markets, exporting up to 30 million tonnes of LNG per year in various independent phases by 2030.

• Eni buys 50% in Block OFF-5 in Uruguay. Eni signed an agreement for the acquisition from YPF of a 50% share and operatorship in the exploration Block OFF-5 in Uruguay’s offshore. It is currently held and operated by MIWEN (fully owned by YPF) and is in the first exploration period. The area falls within the unexplored part of the Atlantic Margin with close geologic analogies with proven petroleum basins.

• TotalEnergies Becomes Operator with a new Offshore License in Guyana. TotalEnergies (40%, operator) and its partners QatarEnergy (35%) and Petronas (25%) have signed a production sharing contract for Block S4 with Guyana’s Ministry of National Resources, following the block’s 2023 award in the Guyana 2022 Licensing Round.

• TotalEnergies swaps assets in Nigeria. TotalEnergies signed agreement to acquire from Conoil a 50% operated interest in block OPL257 and Conoil is to acquire the 40% participating interest held by TotalEnergies in block OML136, both located offshore Nigeria. Upon completion of this transaction, TotalEnergies’ interest in OPL257 will be increased from 40% to 90%, while Conoil will retain a 10% interest in this block.

Trading & logistics:

• Vitol to supply LNG to IRH. International Resources Holding signed a 20-year Heads of Agreement (HoA) with Delfin and Vitol for the purchase and sale of 1.0 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Delfin’s export facility in the United States. Under the agreement, Delfin LNG, a leading U.S.-based export infrastructure company, will supply LNG on a free-on-board (FOB) basis to Vitol, one of the world’s largest independent energy traders, which will act as the offtaker and deliver the volumes to IRH Global Trading (IRHGT), IRH’s global trading arm, for a period of 20 years.

• Venture Global to supply LNG to Japan. Venture Global signed a new, long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA). Under the SPA, Tokyo Gas will procure 1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG from Venture Global for 20 years, starting in 2030.

• Venture Global to supply LNG to Spain. Venture Global and Naturgy signed a new long-term Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for the purchase of 1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Venture Global for twenty years beginning in 2030.

• Venture Global to supply LNG to Greece. Venture Global and ATLANTIC – SEE LNG TRADE S.A. of Greece announced the execution of a new Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for the purchase of a minimum of 0.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Venture Global for twenty years starting in 2030. Under the SPA, Atlantic-See has the potential to expand its purchase commitment.

• ORLEN to supply US gas to Ukraine. ORLEN signed a contract with its Ukrainian partner, Naftogaz, for the supply of 300 million cubic metres of natural gas from the US in the first quarter of 2026. Under the contract, ORLEN will supply Naftogaz with gas sourced from three cargoes of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the first quarter of 2026.

• Equinor to supply gas to Czech Republic. Equinor and the Capital City of Prague’s gas and electricity company Pražskáplynárenská signed a long-term agreement for 10 years of gas supplies into the Czech Republic. Deliveries have started and will last until 2035. Equinor’s supplies of pipeline gas to Europe are backed by the resources on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Energy Transition:

• Plenitude acquires portfolio of renewable assets. Plenitude signed an agreement to acquire from Neoen, a leading renewable energy company, a portfolio of 52 operating assets, including 37 photovoltaic plants, 14 wind farms, and one operating battery storage facility, for a total of approximately 760 MW installed capacity located throughout France. The assets produce approximately 1.1 TWh of electricity annually.

• ORLEN VC invests in Energy Impact Partners (EIP). Through this investment, ORLEN VC joins Flagship Fund III, EIP’s principal investment vehicle backing innovations that accelerate the decarbonisation of the economy and the transformation of the energy, refining, and fuels sectors. The initiative forms part of ORLEN’s long-term strategy aimed at achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

• ORLEN launches its first modern fast-charging EV hub.ORLEN commissioned its first modern fast-charging hub for electric vehicles under the ORLEN Charge network. The facility, located along the S7 expressway at the OlsztynekPołudnie Motorway Service Area, will allow drivers to charge their vehicles up to an optimal level three times faster than before – in approximately 20 minutes.

• TotalEnergies acquires 50% of a portfolio of flexible power generation assets from EPH. TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Energetický a průmyslový holding, a.s. (EPH) for the acquisition of 50% of its flexible power generation platform (gas-fired and biomass power plants, batteries) in Western Europe (Italy, United Kingdom and Ireland, Netherlands, France), valued at €10.6 billion (enterprise value), i.e. a multiple of 7.6x 2026 EBITDA.

• OMV, Masdar to establish JV for green hydrogen electrolyzer. OMV and Masdar signed a binding agreement to establish a joint venture (JV) for the financing, construction and operation of the 140 MW green hydrogen electrolyzer plant in Bruck an der Leitha, Austria. Construction of the facility began in September 2025 and it is expected to be operational in 2027. The JV between OMV and Masdar will be majority-owned by OMV with Masdar owning 49 percent.

Source: EIA

Key factors, influencing the market in October 2025:

Supply developments:

• According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply rose by about 760 kb/d month-on-month in September (reported in October) to around 108 mb/d.

• The IEA raised its 2025 supply-growth forecast to ~3.0 mb/d (to 106.1 mb/d) and for 2026 by ~2.4 mb/d (to ~108.5 mb/d) as of its October update.

• The group OPEC + agreed in early October to a further modest monthly production increase (137 kb/d) for November (mirroring the increase for October), which signals they continue to prioritise market share despite a weak demand backdrop.

• Russian output declined due to increased sanctions (Rosneft and Lukoil added to US and UK sanction lists) and attacks on refining infrastructure, reducing exports of refined products and causing ripple effects in global distillate markets

Oil Demand Developments

• The IEA revised down its global demand growth forecast for 2025 in October: now expecting about +710 kb/d (to ~103.84 mb/d) — down ~35 kb/d from prior.

• OECD countries recorded a decline, while non-OECD demand, particularly in India, rose modestly, driven by LPG, gasoline, naphtha, and diesel consumption.

• Seasonal demand is weaker as the northern-hemisphere moves into the shoulder period (refinery maintenance, lower mobility) which tends to reduce consumption of transport fuels.

• The transition to electric vehicles, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and trade tension (especially between the US and China) contributed to softer consumption growth.

Corporate performance:

Key announncements:

Upstream:

• Equinor starts production at Bacalhau. Equinor and its partners ExxonMobil Brasil, Petrogal Brasil (JV Galp|Sinopec) and Pré-sal Petróleo SA (PPSA) achieved start-up of production from the large Bacalhau field in Brazil. With recoverable reserves exceeding 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), Bacalhau is the largest international offshore field ever developed by Equinor. The field features one of the most modern Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels (FPSO) in the world, measuring 370 metres in length and 64 metres in width, with a production capacity of 220,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).

• ORLEN acquires interests in the North Sea Field. ORLEN Upstream Norway entered into an agreement with TotalEnergies EP Norge to acquire interests in the TommelitenGamma field, located in the Ekofisk region of the North Sea. Finalization of the transaction will increase ORLEN’s reserves by approximately 6 million barrels of oil equivalent. Production from the field is expected to commence in 2029.Under the agreement, ORLEN Upstream Norway will acquire additional 20.23% interest in the Tommeliten Gamma field, increasing its total stake to 62.61%. The field is operated by ConocoPhillips and located in the well-established Ekofisk area, where ORLEN already has a presence through its stake in the producing Tommeliten Alpha gas field.

• Eni announces Final Investment Decision for Mozambique’s Coral North project. Eni and its partners CNPC, ENH, Kogas, and XRG have reached the Final Investment Decision (FID) to develop the Coral North FLNG project, deepwater offshore Cabo Delgado, north of Mozambique. The project will put in production the gas volumes from the northern part of Area’s 4 Coral gas reservoir, in the Rovuma basin, through a state-of-the-art floating LNG facility. The project will be implemented by the Joint Venture formed by Eni (50%), CNPC (20%), Kogas(10%), ENH (10%) and ADNOC’s subsidiary XRG (10%).

• Eni, PETRONAS to establish new JV Satellite Company in Indonesia and Malaysia. Eni and PETRONAS established an independent company (NewCo) under equal ownership, by combining their respective upstream assets in Indonesia and Malaysia. NewCo will operate as a financially self-sufficient entity, with plans to invest in excess of USD 15 billion over the next five years. This investment will support the development of at least eight new projects and the drilling of 15 exploration wells, with the aim of developing approximately 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of discovered reserves.

• Shell invests in Nigeria offshore gas development. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo), together with Sunlink Energies and Resources Limited, have taken a final investment decision (FID) on the HI gas project offshore Nigeria. When completed, the project will supply 350 million standard cubic feet (approximately 60 thousand barrels of oil equivalent) of gas per day at peak production to Nigeria LNG (NLNG; Shell interest 25.6%), which produces and exports liquefied natural gas (LNG) to global markets. Production is expected to begin before the end of this decade.

• TotalEnergies divests non-operated interest in West Ekofisk, Albuskjell and Tommeliten Gamma fields.TotalEnergies EP Norge signed an agreement for the divestment of its non-operated interest (39.89%) in the West Ekofisk and Albuskjell fields to Vår Energi and has also concluded an agreement with Orlen Upstream Norway for the divestment of its non-operated interest (20.23%) in the Tommeliten Gamma field. These three mature fields, located in the Greater Ekofisk Area (Albuskjell and West Ekofisk in PL018 license and Tommeliten Gamma in PL044 license), ceased production in 1998 and are to be redeveloped as part of the so-called “Previously Produced Fields project” (PPF).

• bp confirms discovery in Namibia’s Orange basin. bp confirmed the preliminary results of the Volans-1X exploration well in Namibia’s Orange Basin, as reported by operator Rhino Resources. Petroleum Exploration License 85 (PEL85), where the well was drilled, is operated by Rhino Resources with a working interest of 42.5%. Co-venturers are Azule Energy (42.5%), NAMCOR (10%), and KorresInvestments (5%). bp holds a 50% interest in Azule Energy. The Volans-1X exploration well, drilled using the Northern Ocean’s semi-submersible Deepsea Mira, reached a total depth of 4,497.5m TVDSS (true vertical depth subsea) and successfully penetrated the Upper Cretaceous target.

Downstream:

• Aramco increases its stake in Petro Rabigh refinery.Aramco advanced its strategic downstream expansion with the acquisition of an additional 22.5% stake in Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company (Petro Rabigh) from Sumitomo Chemical Corporation (Sumitomo) for $702 million. Aramco is now Petro Rabigh’s largest shareholder with an equity stake of approximately 60%, while Sumitomo retains an equity stake of 15%.

Trading & Logistics:

• bp unlocks value, divests non-controlling interests in US onshore midstream assets. bp reached an agreement for Sixth Street-managed funds to purchase non-controlling interests in Permian and Eagle Ford midstream assets of bpxenergy – bp’s US onshore oil and gas business. bpx will remain operator of all the assets. The transaction has a total consideration of $1.5 billion and is structured in two phases: approximately $1 billion paid upon signing with the balance expected by the end of the year, subject to regulatory approvals.

Energy transition:

• CF Industries, Trafigura, and Envalior Announce Shipment of Certified Low-Carbon Ammon. CF Industries Holdings announced a shipment of certified low-carbon ammonia from its Donaldsonville, Louisiana, facility. Trafigura purchased the ammonia for shipment to Envalior, a global leader in Engineering Materials, which intends to use the low-carbon ammonia for the production of low-carbon caprolactam.

• Repsol pioneers industrial-scale production of 100% renewable gasoline. Repsol achieved a new technological milestone at its Tarragona complex by producing gasoline from 100% renewable sources on an industrial scale. This new product, made entirely from renewable sources, is fully compatible with gasoline vehicles without the need for any modifications. Its use reduces net CO2 emissions by more than 70% compared to conventional gasoline.

• Repsol and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings sign long-term agreement to supply renewable fuels. Repsol has signed a landmark 8-year agreement with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) to supply renewable marine fuels at the Port of Barcelona. Beginning in the 2026 European cruise season, Repsol will offer a portfolio of renewable fuels - starting with biofuels and, from 2029, renewable methanol - directly to NCLH’s vessels across its cruise brands—Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises—when calling at the Port of Barcelona.

• Eni launches Environmental Impact Assessment (VIA) for new biorefinery. Eni launched the authorisation process for the Environmental Impact Assessment (VIA) to transform its industrial site in Priolo, Sicily. In recent days, the Italian Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security approved the application to proceed with the construction of a biorefinery and a chemical recycling plant based on Versalis’ proprietary Hoop® technology. The project will use of the area currently occupied by Versalis’ ethylene plant, which will be gradually decommissioned, along with an adjacent area used for site services. The new biorefinery will have a production capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year, fed mainly by residues and waste of vegetable origin, animal fats and vegetable oils.

• TotalEnergies awarded Solar Project in Saudi Arabia. The consortium comprising France’s TotalEnergies and Saudi developer Aljomaih Energy & Water (AEW) has been awarded by the Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) following a tender process, the license to develop, build and operate a 400 megawatts (MW) solar power plant in As Sufun, KSA.

• TotalEnergies adds partner to Bifrost CCS project. TotalEnergies, through its affiliate TotalEnergies E&P Denmark, entered into a Farm-Down Agreement with CarbonVault, the Danish affiliate of the German cement producer SCHWENK. Under this agreement, TotalEnergies E&P Denmark will hold a 45% interest in the Bifrost Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Project as the operator, alongside CarbonVault (35%) and Nordsøfonden (20%). The Bifrost Project, which comprises two CO2 offshore storage licenses located approximately 200 kilometers west of the Danish coast, is part of TotalEnergies’ North Sea CCS portfolio.

Source: EIA

Key factors, influencing the market in September 2025:

Supply developments:

• OPEC production increases. A Reuters survey reports that OPEC output rose to ~28.40 mb/d in September, up ~330 kb/d from August. The increase was led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, among others. This is consistent with the decision by OPEC+ to unwind voluntary output cuts more quickly than earlier planned.

• Non-OPEC / upstream growth remains strong. The pipeline of production outside OPEC continues to add supply — reflecting high activity in U.S., Brazil, Canada, others.

• In Nigeria, a brief strike in late September by oil workers caused output to drop ~16%, amounting to ~283 kb/d lost production.

• Fuel oil imports to the U.S. Gulf Coast surged (the highest in ~2.5 years) as refiners sought feedstocks given tightening heavy crude supplies (e.g. due to Venezuelan / Russian misses).

• India’s diesel exports to Europe likely hit record levels (~1.3–1.4 million metric tons) in September, making use of favorable margins and refinery capacity.

Supply developments:

• Mixed demand signals — OECD holds up, non-OECD lagging. The IEA flagged that in advanced economies (OECD) demand held up better than many expected, with resilient deliveries in U.S., Germany, Italy, Korea, etc.
  However, demand in non-OECD regions (e.g. China, India, Brazil) remains muted and is a drag on global growth.

• Diesel / product demand shifts. India’s strong export of diesel suggests domestic demand is being partially exported; this may tighten supply in its domestic or regional market. Fuel oil demand also seems to be holding up better than earlier expectations in 2025, according to IEA / market observers.

• Seasonal declines / refinery maintenance

  • As is typical, demand typically weakens from late summer to year-end. The IEA anticipates global consumption may decline by ~1 mb/d from the summer peak toward year-end.

  • On the refining side, the IEA forecasts that crude throughput (refinery utilization) will fall by ~3.5 mb/d between August and October due to seasonal maintenance cycles.

• Observed global oil stocks continued to grow heading into September, reflecting excess supply. The IEA sees the second half of 2025 as prone to inventory builds averaging ~2.5 mb/d.

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• bp approves Tiber-Guadalupe project in the US Gulf of America. bp reached a final investment decision on the Tiber-Guadalupe project in the Gulf of America, approving its second new production platform in less than two years in the critical US offshore region. The 100% bp-owned Tiber-Guadalupe will be bp’s seventh operated oil and gas production hub in the Gulf of America, featuring a new floating production platform with the capacity to produce 80,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The project includes six wells in the Tiber field and a two-well tieback from the Guadalupe field. Production is expected to start in 2030.

• bp signs memorandum of understanding to drill five wells in the Mediterranean. The programme is designed to accelerate the development and production of national gas reserves, with the intent of extending the use of existing production facilities in the West Nile Delta. Drilling operations are expected to start in 2026, with possible tie-back options following evaluation of the drilling campaign and resource potential.

• Repsol achieves first oil at Leon-Castile. The consortium of Repsol, LLOG Exploration Offshore, and O.G. Oil & Gas achieved first oil at the deepwater Leon-Castile fields, offshore Louisiana in the Gulf of America, with production starting from a well at Leon. Two other wells are expected to come online this year in Leon and the adjacent Castile field, with production at two additional wells planned in 2026.

• ExxonMobil Guyana Expands Capacity With Seventh Offshore Development. ExxonMobil made a final investment decision for the Hammerhead development offshore Guyana, after receiving the required regulatory approvals. Hammerhead, the seventh project on the Stabroek block, is anticipated to come online in 2029. The development will utilize a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel with a capacity to produce approximately 150,000 barrels of oil per day. The US$6.8 billion Hammerhead project will include 18 production and injection wells.

• Eni signs exploration contract for offshore block in Abidjan. Eni and the Ivorian Ministry of Mines, Petroleum and Energy signed the exploration contract for the CI-707 offshore block in Abidjan. The licence covers an area of approximately 2,926 square kilometres in the Ivorian sedimentary basin, at a water depth of between 1,000 and 3,000 metres. The planned exploration period has a maximum duration of 9 years.

Downstream:

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to Acquire OxyChem. Berkshire Hathaway and Occidental announced a definitive agreement for Berkshire Hathaway to acquire Occidental’s chemical business, OxyChem, in an all-cash transaction for $9.7 billion, subject to customary purchase price adjustments. OxyChem is a global manufacturer of commodity chemicals vital to quality of life, with applications in water treatment, pharmaceuticals, healthcare and commercial and residential development.

• Shell will not restart construction of Rotterdam biofuels plant. Shell Nederland Raffinaderij B.V., a subsidiary of Shell plc, decided not to restart construction of its planned biofuels facility at the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park in Rotterdam, which began in 2022. Following an in-depth commercial and technical evaluation to reassess the project’s competitiveness, Shell will no longer proceed with the project.

• Phillips 66 to buy the remaining 50% interest in WRB Refining. Phillips 66 entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the remaining 50% ownership interest in WRB Refining LP from subsidiaries of Cenovus Energy Inc. for total cash consideration of $1.4 billion, subject to customary purchase price adjustments. WRB Refining LP is a 50/50 joint venture between Phillips 66 and Cenovus Energy Inc. that owns the Wood River refinery in Roxana, Illinois, and the Borger refinery in Borger, Texas. Phillips 66 has operated both facilities since the inception of the joint venture in 2007.

Trading & Logistics:

• ConocoPhillips to offtake LNG from Rio Grande project.ConocoPhillips announced it has signed a long-term sales and purchase agreement (SPA) to lift 1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Rio Grande LNG project under development by NextDecade Corporation, near Brownsville, Texas. Under the agreement, ConocoPhillips will offtake LNG over a 20-year term on a free-on-board basis, subject to NextDecade making a positive final investment decision (FID) on Train 5.

• Texas LNG, Gunvor Announce Binding LNG Offtake Agreement. Texas LNG Brownsville LLC, a four million tonnes per annum (“MTPA”) liquefied natural gas export terminal to be constructed in the Port of Brownsville, Texas, has signed a definitive 20-year Sales and Purchase Agreement with Gunvor Singapore Pte Ltd for 0.5 MTPA of LNG from Texas LNG on a Free on Board basis. The agreement converts a previous non-binding Heads of Agreement between the two companies.

Energy transition:

• OMV builds major electrolysis plants for green hydrogen in Europe. OMV lays the foundation stone for one of the largest electrolysis plants for green hydrogen in Europe. The 140 MW plant in Bruck an der Leitha is scheduled to go into operation at the end of 2027. OMV will produce up to 23,000 tons of hydrogen annually in future using renewable energy from wind, solar, and hydropower, making a significant contribution toward reducing the company’s carbon emissions.

• 1PointFive and Enbridge Form Joint Venture for Pelican Sequestration Hub. 1PointFive, a subsidiary of Occidental, announced the formation of a 50/50 joint venture with Enbridge Inc., an energy delivery company, to develop the Pelican Sequestration Hub and related transportation infrastructure in Louisiana. 1PointFive will develop the facilities to store carbon dioxide (CO2) deep underground and Enbridge will build and operate pipelines from customer facilities to the hub. The Pelican Sequestration Hub, located in Livingston Parish, is anchored by a 25-year offtake agreement for approximately 2.3 million metric tons of CO2 per year from CF Industries’ and its joint venture partners’ JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. planned low-carbon ammonia production facility in Ascension Parish, Louisiana.

• 1PointFive and NYK Announce Carbon Removal Agreement. 1PointFive.com, a carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) company announced that Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK), one of the world’s largest shipping companies based in Japan, purchased carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credits that will be enabled by 1PointFive’s Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology.

• Plenitude launches Solar Power Plant in Kazakhstan.Plenitude announces the commissioning of the 50 MW Solar Power Plant in Zhanaozen, Mangystau Region, Kazakhstan. The plant is a part of an innovative project led by Eni and KazMunayGas (KMG), the first large-scale of its kind, for the realization of a 247 MW Hybrid Power Plant which integrates solar, wind and gas power generation.

• Eni Storage Systems to produce lithium batteries in Brindisi. Eni and Seri Industrial announced that Eni Storage Systems, a joint venture established by Eni (50% plus one share) and Fib (50% minus one share), a Seri Industrial subsidiary, had begun the operations in the development of industrial project for the production of stationary lithium batteries in the Brindisi industrial area. Eni Storage Systems aims to establish a hub capable of producing over 8 GWh per year of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, primarily intended for stationary energy storage, using a water-based process. The project is currently in the engineering phase and undergoing economic, financial and authorisation assessments, which are expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2026, before moving into the execution phase.

• Repsol to build its first large-scale renewable hydrogen plant in Cartagena. Repsol, in collaboration with Enagas Renovable, approved the construction of a 100 MW electrolyzer in Cartagena (Spain), with an investment of more than €300 million. The Cartagena electrolyzer has been selected by the European Commission as a strategic project of common European interest (IPCEI) and will receive funding.The new facility will have the capacity to produce approximately 15,000 tonnes of renewable hydrogen per year and will avoid the emission of up to 167,000 tonnes of CO2 each year.

Source: EIA

Key factors, influencing the market in August 2025:

Supply developments:

• OPEC+ Reverses Production Cuts: In early August, eight OPEC+ members agreed to unwind approximately 547 kb/d of voluntary output cuts, effectively ending about 2.2 mb/d of earlier reductions by September.

• U.S. Production Soars: U.S. crude oil output surged to a record 13.6 mb/d by mid-2025, thanks to efficiency gains in the Permian Basin, among other regions. However, forecasts anticipate a decline toward 13.1 mb/d in 2026 as prices compress.

• Record-High Refining Throughput: Refining operations hit an all-time high in August, with global crude runs nearing 85.6 mb/d. Still, refining growth is beginning to slow compared to earlier in the year—though robustness persists into mid-2025.

• Structural Oversupply Intensifies: Analysts estimate a persistent global surplus roughly in the 2–2.5 mb/d range throughout 2025, driven by both OPEC+ production normalization and higher non-OPEC output, especially from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana.
  

Demand developments:

• Soft Demand Across Key Markets: The IEA downgraded global demand growth projections to about 680 kb/d in 2025 and 700 kb/d in 2026—primarily due to weakness in economies like China, India, Brazil, and others.

• Asia Rebalances Purchases: Asia’s crude imports rebounded to approximately 27.18 mb/d in August, up from 24.91 mb/d in July but still short of June’s 27.98 mb/d. The rise stems more from favorable pricing and re-stocking than true demand strength.

• China’s Inventory Strategy: China continued aggressive crude stockpiling—effectively helping absorb surplus barrels. This strategy helped mask weaker demand and supported prices to some extent.

• Sliding Demand in Major Regions: Broadly, demand has been underwhelming in core markets, reinforcing the growing supply overhang.
  

Corporate performance:

Key announcements:

Upstream:

• bp successfully started up the Argos Southwest Extension project. The project adds 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) of gross peak annualized average production at the existing Argos platform. Argos, which began production in 2023, is bp’s fifth operated production platform in the Gulf of America with a gross production capacity of up to 140,000 barrels of oil per day.

• Total Austral signed an agreement with YPF SA for the sale of its 45% operated interest in two unconventional oil and gas blocks in Argentina, Rincon La Ceniza and La Escalonada, for an amount of USD 500 million at a valuation of around 10,000 USD/acre. Located in the Vaca Muerta area in the Neuquén Basin, these concessions (51,000 net acres) are currently in a pilot development phase.

• ORLEN Upstream Norway, together with operator Aker BP and other license partners, achieved a significant oil discovery, with estimated resources of up to 134 million barrels of oil equivalent. This marks the largest discovery on the Norwegian Continental Shelf this year.

• Mubadala Energy finalized its strategic investment in the U.S. natural gas sector through its partnership with Kimmeridge, the energy-focused alternative asset manager, and the rebranding of SoTex HoldCo to Caturus, in which Mubadala Energy now owns a 24.1% equity stake. Caturus is building the leading integrated natural gas and LNG export platform in the U.S. through a combination of its upstream operations under Caturus Energy, formerly Kimmeridge Texas Gas, and via Commonwealth LNG, a 9.5 mtpa liquefied natural gas export terminal to be located near Cameron, Louisiana.

• Aramco signed an $11 billion lease and leaseback deal involving its Jafurah gas processing facilities with a consortium of international investors, led by funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), a part of BlackRock. As part of the transaction a newly-formed subsidiary, JafurahMidstream Gas Company (JMGC), will lease development and usage rights for the Jafurah Field Gas Plant and the Riyas NGL Fractionation Facility, and lease them back to Aramco for a period of 20 years. JMGC will receive a tariff payable by Aramco in exchange for granting Aramco the exclusive right to receive, process and treat raw gas from Jafurah. Aramco will hold a 51% majority stake in JMGC, with the remaining 49% held by investors led by GIP.

Trading & Logistics:

• ConocoPhillips signed a long-term sales and purchase agreement (SPA) to purchase 4 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project under development by Sempra Infrastructure, a subsidiary of Sempra.

• Trafigura signed a long-term agreement to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS). Trafigura will meet this commitment through its offtake agreements with LNG producers, including Cheniere Energy, North America’s largest LNG exporter, and Trafigura’s global LNG portfolio.

• AMIGO LNG signed Long-Term Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Gunvor Singapore. Under the agreement, Gunvor will purchase 0.85 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG for 20 years, with deliveries commencing upon the start of commercial operations of AMIGO LNG’s first liquefaction train, scheduled for latter half of 2028.

• ADNOC signed a 15-year Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with IndianOil. The agreement provides for the supply of 1 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) sourced primarily from ADNOC’s lower-carbon Ruwais LNG project.

Energy transition:

• First CO2 storage in Northern Lights. TotalEnergies and its partners, Equinor and Shell, announce that the first CO2 volumes were successfully transported by vessel from Heidelberg Materials’ cement factory in Brevik, Norway to Northern Lights’ facilities in Øygarden. Northern Lights is the world’s first merchant CO2 transportation and storage project.

Source: EIA

Key factors, influencing the market in July 2025:

• Supply developments:

  • OPEC+ Output Discipline: OPEC+ maintained supply cuts of ~2.2 mb/d, agreed in early June and extended into Q3.

  • Saudi Arabia continued its voluntary 1 mb/d cut, keeping production around 9 mb/d, which supported Brent near $71.70/bbl in July.

  • U.S. crude output hovered around 13.2 mb/d, nearly flat MoM (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report).

  • Rig count declined slightly: Baker Hughes reported a drop from 488 rigs in June to 483 in late July, reflecting cost discipline amid volatile WTI prices.

  • West African unrest and Houthi attacks near the Red Sea raised shipping insurance premiums and created logistical bottlenecks.

  • No major production disruptions, but geopolitical uncertainty helped keep risk premiums priced into Brent.

• Demand Dynamics:

  • U.S. gasoline demand fell to 8.82 million barrels/day (mb/d) in the last week of July, down from 9.22 mb/d in mid-June (EIA).

  • U.S. airline passenger volumes grew modestly (~2% YoY), but lower refinery margins, elevated inventories, and signs of overcapacity in aviation fuel supply weighed on prices.

  • Demand for middile disstilates/diesel held firm in Europe and Latin America, particularly from industrial and transportation sectors.

  • Heating oil demand rose, reflecting early stockpiling before the winter season.

  • U.S. crude inventories fell from 457.1 million barrels (end-June) to 443.5 million barrels (end-July) — a draw of 13.6 million barrels.

  • Gasoline stocks rose from 231 million barrels to 239 million barrels (+3.5%) — consistent with price softening.

  • Distillate fuel stocks dropped ~1.7% MoM, tightening supply and pushing diesel and heating oil prices higher.

Corporate performance:

Key corporate announcements:

Upstream:

• bp signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) to evaluate redevelopment opportunities in the mature giant Sarir and Messla oilfields in Libya’s Sirte basin.

• Repsol Resources UK completes merger with NEO Energy. The combined group has been renamed NEO NEXT and becomes one of the largest producers on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS). The joint venture is owned by Repsol E&P Group (45%) and NEO UK (55%), with a projected 2025 production of approximately 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).

• Eni and Sonatrach strengthen energy security cooperation. Eni and Sonatrach signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at strengthening cooperation in the field of hydrocarbons, energy transition and renewable energies, with a focus on energy security and the economic development of the two countries. This protocol follows the recent signing between Eni and Sonatrach of the agreement of the Zemoul El Kbar area and the allocation of the Reggane II area, which together with the initiatives covered by the protocol will contribute to increasing gas production up to 5.5 billion cubic metres per year by 2028, with total investments of more than $8 billion.

• ADNOC to transfer its 24.9% shareholding in OMV AG to XRG P.J.S.C, its wholly-owned international investment company. This transfer, which is subject to regulatory approvals, is aligned with ADNOC’s strategy to consolidate its international growth investments under XRG.

Downstream & Retail:

• bp reached an agreement to sell its mobility & convenience and bp pulse businesses in the Netherlands to Catom. The sale is part of bp’s previously announced $20bn divestment programme.

• TotalEnergies and CMA CGM to Launch LNG Bunkering Logistics Joint Venture to Accelerate Maritime Decarbonization.

  • The TotalEnergies-CMA CGM JV will offer a complete logistics service in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region.

  • A 20,000 m³ LNG bunker vessel will be jointly deployed and operated by 2028.

  • Under a new long-term agreement, TotalEnergies will supply CMA CGM up to 360,000 tons of LNG per year until 2040.

Energy Transition:

• bp agreed to sell its US onshore wind business, BP Wind Energy North America Inc. (bp Wind Energy), to LS Power. After close, bp Wind Energy will be owned and operated as part of LS Power portfolio company Clearlight Energy, increasing its operating fleet to ~4.3GW.

• TotalEnergies signed an agreement with NativState, an Arkansas-based forest carbon project developer, to conserve forests from land conversion and heavy timber harvesting. The transaction includes 13 Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects located in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, U.S.A, covering 100,000 hectares (247,000 acres) owned by more than 280 private family forest landowners.

• TotalEnergies expands its long-standing LNG partnership with AES on renewable and battery storage in the Caribbean. TotalEnergies has purchased 50% of AES renewable portfolio in the Dominican Republic, following a previous acquisition of 30% in AES’ Puerto Rican assets. The combined 1.5 GW portfolio will produce 2.5 TWh/y of renewable electricity.

Trading & logistics:

• BASF and Equinor sign ten-year natural gas supply agreement. Equinor will supply up to 23 terawatt hours of natural gas (around 2 billion cubic meters) annually to BASF. BASF and Equinor have signed a long-term strategic agreement for the annual delivery of up to 23 terawatt hours of natural gas over a ten-year period. The contract secures a substantial share of BASF’s natural gas needs in Europe. Deliveries will start on October 1st, 2025.

• Eni sign 20-year sales and purchase agreement with Venture Global. Eni will purchase 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) for 20 years with offtake starting by the end of the decade from Phase 1 of CP2 LNG. The facility, with a peak production capacity of 28 MTPA, is currently under development in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, United States.

• Trafigura announced a strategic alliance with maritime technology company ZeroNorth. Trafigura is set to roll out ZeroNorth’s platform across its controlled fleet of more than 350 vessels, including its voyage optimisation systems, emissions analytics and vessel reporting tools. Additionally, Trafigura will take an equity stake in ZeroNorth, further deepening the ties between the two companies.

• K-SURE and Trafigura entered into a USD200 million mid- to long-term financing agreement. The financing provided through K-SURE (Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) will help cover costs such as time charter fees paid by Trafigura to Korean shipping companies as part of its global freight operations. The agreement is expected to play a key role in helping mid-sized Korean shipping companies to strengthen their negotiating power and operational capabilities. It also expands the scope of K-SURE’s export credit programs beyond traditional capital goods into new sectors including consumer goods and services.

• GAIL and Vitol sign a long-term LNG Sales and Purchase Agreement. The agreement stands for the annual supply of approximately 1 Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum (MMTPA) of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) over a period of about 10 years, commencing in 2026.

Key factors, influencing the market in June 2025:

• Supply development:

  • Middle East Tensions (Israel–Iran Conflict): Following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-June, Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of supply disruption through the chokepoint that handles ~20% of global oil trade.Though physical flows were not interrupted, the threat briefly rattled markets and raised risk premiums.

  • OPEC+ began easing voluntary production cuts agreed in late 2023 and extended through early 2025.

  • Strong North American Production: U.S. crude production stayed around 13.3 million bpd, close to record highs.

  • June saw increased refinery throughput, especially in Asia, boosting supply of products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

• Demand development:

  • The northern hemisphere driving season boosted demand for gasoline in the U.S., Europe, and China.

  • Air travel demand remained strong as post-COVID international travel continued to normalize, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

  • Global manufacturing activity remained weak (e.g., Europe and China), weighing on diesel demand.

  • Mixed data from the U.S. (strong job growth, stable inflation) contrasted with slowing in OECD economies.

  • Cooler-than-usual conditions in parts of northern Europe increased heating oil use. However, heating oil stocks were ample, tempering pricing pressure.

Corporate performance:

Key corporate developments in June 2025:

Upstream:

• bp, together with its partners, entered into a series of agreements that will build and expand on its major oil and gas interests in Azerbaijan, paving the way for growth and additional production while deepening its partnership with the country and state oil company, SOCAR. The agreements include the final investment decisions for the next major phase of development of the giant Shah Deniz gas field – Shah Deniz Compression – as well as for two projects – for terminal electrification and solar power.

• TotalEnergies signed an agreement to acquire the 25% interest held by Moeve (formerly known as CEPSA) in Block 53, offshore Suriname, joining APA (45%, operator) and Petronas (30%) as partner in this license.

• TotalEnergies, jointly with QatarEnergy, has been awarded the Ahara license following the “Algeria Bid Round 2024”, launched by The National Agency for the Valorization of Hydrocarbon Resources (ALNAFT), the first call for tender conducted under the hydrocarbon law No.19-13.

• TotalEnergies purchased 25% working interest in a portfolio of exploration leases Offshore U.S. from Chevron (operator).

• Equinor has deepened its position in the Santos basin after winning the S-M-1617 block during Brazil's 5th Open Permanent Concession bid round.

Gas Trading & Logistics:

• Shell Canada Energy announced that the first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has left the LNG Canada facility on the west coast of Canada. At 40%, Shell has the largest working interest in the LNG Canada joint venture. Located in Kitimat, British Columbia, the facility will export LNG from two processing units or “trains” with total capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa).

• Equinor and Centrica signed long-term gas sales agreement of 55 TWh of natural gas per year (around 5 billion cubic meters - bcm) for a period of 10 years starting 1 October 2025 at terms reflecting market prices. The total contract value would be around £20 billion assuming current prices.

• ORLEN Paliwa completed a major investment project at the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Terminal in Szczecin. Following the expansion, the terminal’s storage capacity has been doubled and the volume it can handle has increased by nearly 65%, reaching 400 thousand tonnes of LPG annually.

Energy Transition:

• TotalEnergies, as a shareholder of North Sea OFW One GmbH, was awarded the N-9.4 offshore concession by the Federal Network Agency. Located in the North Sea, approximately 150 kilometers northwest of the German island of Heligoland, the N-9.4 concession covers an area of around 141 square kilometers and will enable the development of 1GW of offshore wind capacity.

• Saft, a subsidiary of TotalEnergies, was selected by leading Asian renewable energy developer Gurīn Energy to supply a battery energy storage system (BESS) for the latter’s major energy storage project being developed in Fukushima, Japan.

• Equinor’s first solar plant in Denmark starts production. Production has commenced at the 65 MW Ingerslev Å solar plant located in Jutland, Denmark. The facility is operated by BeGreen, a wholly owned subsidiary of Equinor.

• ORLEN Group secured over PLN 1.7 billion in National Recovery Plan funding for its hydrogen projects - Green H2 and Hydrogen Eagle.

• ORLEN Neptun, part of the ORLEN Group, has launched an offshore wind farm installation terminal in Świnoujście, the first facility of its kind in Poland and one of the most advanced in Europe.

• Strategy fundamentally reset: reducing and reallocating capital expenditure, significantly reducing costs and driving improved performance - to grow cash flow and returns - supporting a stronger balance sheet and resilient distributions.

• Growing upstream: increasing oil & gas investment to ~$10bn p.a.; strengthening portfolio; growing production to 2.3–2.5mmboed in 2030; additional ~$2bn operating cash flow in 2027.

• Focusing downstream: reshaping portfolio to drive growth; high-grading and focusing on advantaged and integrated positions; announced strategic review of Castrol; driving improved performance; additional $3.5–4bn operating cash flow in 2027.

• Disciplined investment in the transition: selective investment in biogas, biofuels and EV charging; capital-light partnerships in renewables; focused investment in hydrogen/CCS; investment in transition businesses of $1.5–2bn p.a., over $5bn p.a. lower than previous guidance.

• Updated financial frame: reducing annual capex to $13–15bn to 2027; targeting significantly higher structural cost reductions of $4–5bn by end 2027; $20bn divestments by 2027, including potential proceeds from Lightsource bp and strategic review of Castrol; reducing net debt, targeting $14–18bn by end 2027; resilient shareholder distributions, guidance of 30–40% of operating cash flow.

• Growing free cash flow and returns: targeting >20% compound annual growth in adjusted free cash flow to 2027, and returns on average capital employed of >16% by 2027.

More details under the link: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/growing-shareholder-value-a-reset-bp.html

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• TotalEnergies to provide STMicroelectronics with the renewable power.

• Engine No. 1, Chevron form partnership to supply power to data centres.

• ORLEN, Northland Power start construction of Poland’s First Offshore Wind Farm.

• Masdar and EWEC launch solar power and battery storage project.

• Repsol approves investments into Ecoplant.

• Aramco and Ma’aden to form mining JV for transition metals.

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Renewable energy:

• Shell completes equity stake acquisition of RISEC Holdings. Shell Energy North America, a subsidiary of Shell plc (Shell), completed the previously announced 100% equity stake acquisition of RISEC Holdings, which owns a 609-megawatt (MW) two-unit combined-cycle gas turbine power plant in Rhode Island, USA.

• TotalEnergies to provide STMicroelectronics with the renewable power.TotalEnergies and STMicroelectronics, a global semiconductor leader serving customers across the spectrum of electronics applications, signed a physical Power Purchase Agreement to supply renewable electricity to STMicroelectronics sites in France. This 15-year contract, started in January 2025, represents an overall volume of 1.5 TWh. This power comes with structuration services to transform intermittent production in a constant volume (“baseload”) of green electricity.

• Engine No. 1, Chevron form partnership to supply power to data centres. Engine No. 1 and Chevron U.S.A. Inc. formed a partnership to build a new company to develop scalable, reliable power solutions for United States based data centers running on U.S. natural gas. The first projects, which the companies refer to as “power foundries”, are expected to leverage seven U.S. made GE Vernova 7HA natural gas turbines, secured under a slot reservation agreement, on an accelerated timeline. The projects are expected to serve co-located data centers in the U.S. Southeast, Midwest, and West regions. Power generation is not designed to flow initially through the existing transmission grid, reducing the risk of increasing electricity prices for consumers.

• ORLEN, Northland Power start construction of Poland’s First Offshore Wind Farm.A fleet of 11 specialised vessels began installing the foundations for Poland’s first offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea. This stage already saw the successful installation of the first two of a total of 78 monopiles – towering 100-metre steel structures that will support 15 MW wind turbines. These generation units are among the most advanced in the industry, with a portion being manufactured at Vestas’ facility in Szczecin. With a total capacity of 1.2 GW, the Baltic Power wind farm is set to commence operations in 2026.

• Plenitude to purchase 49% equity stake in 2 operational photovoltaic plants in US.Plenitude, through its US subsidiary Eni New Energy, signed an agreement with EDP Renewables North America, to purchase a 49% equity stake in a portfolio of 2 operational photovoltaic plants and an electricity storage facility in construction located in the state of California, United States. The Sandrini 100 (100MWac / 141MWdc) and Sandrini 200 (200MWac / 266MWdc) solar farms share the same grid connection infrastructure with the Sandrini BESS storage facility (368MWh). The three plants have a total installed capacity of about 499MWdc, of which 245MWdc corresponding to Plenitude share.

• Plenitude completes construction of Guajillo battery storage plant. Plenitude, through its subsidiary Eni New Energy US, completed the construction of the Guajillo plant, the company's largest battery storage system ever. Located in the in Webb County, Southwest Texas, about 20 kilometers from the city of Laredo, Guajillo has a capacity of 200MW and is equipped with lithium-ion LFP batteries (lithium iron phosphate), able to efficiently store the electricity produced by generation plants, making it available when market demand is greatest. The plant was built right next to one of Plenitude's largest operating solar farms, “Corazon Solar Farm,” also to maximize operational synergies and consolidate the company's presence in the area, where it operates on about 800 hectares site. The plant is scheduled to be commercially operational by mid-2025.

• Plenitude doubles renewables capacity in Spain in 2024. Plenitude expanded its installed capacity from renewable sources in Spain by 400 MW, reaching nearly 950 MW of photovoltaic and wind power projects, more than double compared with 2023. In particular, Plenitude recently completed the installation of 150 MW of the Caparacena project in Granada, consisting of three photovoltaic plants nearly accounting for 50 MW capacity each. Moreover, Plenitude also completed the construction of other plants totalling nearly 250 MW in the solar parks of Renopool, in Extremadura, and Guillena, in Andalusia.

• Solar Proponent executes power purchase agreements across four projects in Texas. Solar Proponent, a leading developer of ERCOT-focused utility-scale solar and storage projects, announced the execution of 1.6 GW AC of power purchase agreements across four projects in Texas with a leading technology company. Solar Proponent is backed by EnCap Investments, a leading provider of equity capital to the independent sector of the U.S. energy industry, Yorktown Partners, an energy-focused private equity firm, and Mercuria Energy, one of the world’s largest independent energy and commodity groups. The execution of these PPAs in December 2024 capped an active year for Solar Proponent, who recently sold a 780 MW DC project in the South zone of ERCOT that will commence on-site construction in early 2025 and another 1.6 GW of solar projects in the North zone that just commenced construction.

• Masdar and EWEC launch solar power and battery storage project. Masdar and Emirates Water and Electricity Company (EWEC) launched the world’s first large-scale ‘round the clock’ gigascale project, combining solar power and battery storage in Abu Dhabi. Delivering up to 1 gigawatt (GW) of baseload power every day generated from renewable energy, it will be the largest combined solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) in the world. Located in Abu Dhabi, the project will feature a 5.2GW (DC) solar photovoltaic (PV) plant, coupled with a 19 gigawatt-hour (GWh) BESS, setting a global benchmark in clean energy innovation.

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• Masdar to develop clean energy projects in Philippines. Masdar announced its entry into the Philippines market, signing agreements with the government of the Philippines to develop 1 gigawatt (GW) of clean energy projects to strengthen its growing portfolio in Southeast Asia. The Implementation Agreement with the Department of Energy and the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Board of Investments of the Republic of the Philippines covers the development of solar, wind and battery energy storage systems (BESS) with a total capacity of up to 1GW by 2030.

• ENGIE expands its flagship wind farm project in Egypt. ENGIE announces the expansion of its flagship wind farm project located on the shores of the Gulf of Suez, in Ras Ghareb, Egypt, which is currently under construction. This project, the largest in Africa, is being developed in collaboration with Orascom Construction, Toyota Tsusho Corporation and Eurus Energy Holdings Corporation, within the Red Sea Wind Energy consortium. The expansion will increase the total capacity of the wind farm from 500 MW to 650 MW. As part of this expansion, an additional agreement to the long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) has been signed with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC). This agreement guarantees revenues for the 150 MW extension and secures revenues for the entire 650 MW of the farm for 25 years. ENGIE, which holds 35% of the Red Sea Wind Energy consortium with complementary expertise, plays a key role as the technical and project management partner of the project. The other partners are Orascom Construction PLC (25%), Toyota Tsusho Corporation (20%), and Eurus Energy Holdings Corporation (20%).

• Alcazar Energy Partners in talks for off-take contract for Bijela wind farm. Alcazar Energy Partners signed of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Elektroprivreda Crne Gore (EPCG), Montenegro’s state-owned electricity distribution utility company. The agreement initiates discussions for a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for the Bijela wind farm (“Bijela”), which is set to become Montenegro’s largest wind farm with an export capacity of 118.8MW. Bijela represents a major economic investment for Montenegro and forms a key component of the government’s 2040 National Development Strategy whilst also supporting the country’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Bio-fuels:

• Enilive starts its first plant to produce SAF at the Gela biorefinery. Enilive commissioned its first plant to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) at the Gela biorefinery, in Sicily. Production has started at the plant, which has a capacity of 400,000 tonnes per year, representing almost a third of the expected European SAF demand in 2025, following the implementation of the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation.

• OMV, Airbus to cooperate on SAF adoption. OMV and Airbus signed a memorandum of understanding to advance the decarbonization of the aviation industry through Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). OMV and Airbus will explore joint solutions to broaden the voluntary access to SAF for various customer groups, aimed at stimulating new demand and thereby supporting large-scale investments in new SAF production facilities. Further, the companies will review opportunities to accelerate the testing, evaluation, and approval of new feedstocks, as well as new production pathways to make SAF available more quickly. In addition, both partners commit to jointly raising awareness and understanding of SAF, acknowledging the significant role that regulations and policy play in the transition to renewable fuels.

• Repsol approves investments into Ecoplant. Repsol's Board of Directors gave the green light to invest in the Ecoplant, a pioneering project in Europe to transform urban waste into renewable fuels and circular products. Located in Tarragona, this facility —expected to receive an investment of over €800 million— will become the first plant in Europe to produce renewable and circular methanol from waste through gasification. This cutting-edge technology, developed by Enerkem - a technology company in which Repsol is a partner - gives a second life to waste that would otherwise end up in landfills or be incinerated. The new plant will have the capacity to process up to 400,000 tons of municipal solid waste per year and turn them into 240,000 tons of renewable fuels and circular products.

Carbon capture & storage:

• Aker Solutions, SLB Capturi awarded CCS contract for Celsio plant. Aker Solutions and SLB Capturi were awarded a contract for the carbon capture and storage solution at Hafslund Celsio’s waste-to-energy plant in Oslo, Norway. The contract will deliver a carbon capture plant, a liquefaction system, temporary storage, and loading facility at the waste incineration site. It also includes an intermediate CO2 storage and ship loading system at Oslo harbour.

Metals:

• DOE finalizes grant for lithium project to Equinor, Standard Lithium. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) finalized USD 225 million grant for the South West Arkansas (SWA) lithium project. In May 2024, Equinor entered a strategic partnership with Standard Lithium acquiring a 45% share in two lithium companies in Southwest Arkansas and East Texas. USD 225 million funding from the DOE’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains will support construction of a processing facility for the SWA project, which in Phase 1 is targeting an annual production of 22,500 tonnes of lithium carbonate for use in battery production.

• Aramco and Ma’aden to form mining JV for transition metals. Aramco and Ma’aden announced the signing of non-binding Heads of Terms, which envisages the formation of a minerals exploration and mining joint venture (JV) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The proposed JV would focus on energy transition minerals, including extracting lithium from high concentration deposits and advancing cost-effective direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies. Commercial lithium production could potentially commence by 2027.

Thought leadership:

• BCG publishes an article on challenges for power supply for data centres (https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/breaking-barriers-data-center-growth): Key Takeaways:

  Data centers are booming, but power, supply chain, and sustainability challenges threaten growth. Companies can surmount the obstacles and meet the growing thirst for computing power.

  • GenAI will be the fastest-growing segment of computing demand from 2023 to 2028, but traditional enterprise workloads such as database management and file sharing and storage will continue to account for the majority of demand.

  • Although the US, which is the leading data center market today, will account for the majority of data center power demand growth over the same period, other regions will see significant growth supported by regulations, access to clean energy, and other variables.

  • Creative collaboration throughout the ecosystem—including among companies, utilities, and regulators on supply chain issues, community engagement, and climate change impact—can address the most significant industry challenges.

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• ORLEN unveiled new strategy, called “The Energy of Tomorrow Starts Today”.

• Shell launches Whale floating production facility in the Gulf of Mexico.

• Tengizchevroil starts oil production at Future Growth Project (FGP).

• SOCAR continues to acquire stakes in strategic assets in foreign countries.

• BP plans to sell Ruhr Oel GmbH.

• TA’ZIZ awards methanol EPC contract to SAMSUNG E&A.

• Trafigura places facility of credit-insured receivables and prepayments totalling USD1 billion.

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Upstream:

• ORLEN unveiled new strategy, called “The Energy of Tomorrow Starts Today”. Its key objectives include expanding natural gas production, constructing four offshore wind farms, developing large-scale energy storage facilities, and delivering at least two small modular nuclear reactors. The Company pledged to achieve the following targets:

  • 27 billion m³ of natural gas: meeting 100% of Poland’s domestic needs through increased production in Norway, Poland, and North America, complemented by strategic supply contracts.

  • 4.3 GW of gas-fired power generation capacity: sufficient to power 7.5 million households.

  • 1.4 GW of energy storage capacity: deploying large-scale facilities capable of delivering 24-hour energy supply to 300,000 households.

  The Group’s recycling capacity is poised to increase from the current 35,000 tonnes to 250,000 tonnes annually over the next decade. By 2035, products derived from renewable and circular raw materials will represent 10% of all petrochemical sales.

  The new strategy also reinforces ORLEN’s dedication to delivering value to shareholders through a progressive dividend policy. In 2025, the guaranteed dividend will rise from PLN 4.3 to PLN 4.5 per share, with an annual increase of PLN 0.15 per share thereafter. In addition, the Management Board will have the flexibility to recommend higher dividend payouts, up to 25% of annual operating cash flows, net of financing costs.

• Shell starts up new facility in UK North Sea, restoring production from the Penguins field. Shell restarted production at the Penguins field in the UK North Sea with a modern floating, production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility (Shell 50%, operator; NEO Energy 50%). The previous export route for this field was via the Brent Charlie platform, which ceased production in 2021 and is being decommissioned. Peak production is estimated at around 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and currently has an estimated discovered recoverable resource volume of approximately 100 million boe.

• Shell launches Whale floating production facility in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell Offshore Inc. (Shell), a subsidiary of Shell plc, announced that production has started at the Shell-operated Whale floating production facility in the Gulf of Mexico. Whale replicates the simplified, cost-efficient host design of the Vito platform, which began production in early 2023. The Whale development is owned by Shell Offshore Inc. (60%, operator) and Chevron U.S.A. Inc. (40%). With an estimated peak production of 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), Whale currently has an estimated recoverable resource volume of 480 million boe.

• Tengizchevroil starts oil production at Future Growth Project (FGP). Chevron Corporation announced that its 50 percent owned affiliate Tengizchevroil started oil production at its Future Growth Project (FGP) located at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan. FGP is the third processing plant in operation at the Tengiz oil field, which expands sour gas injection capability and is expected to ramp up output to one million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This milestone follows the completion of the Wellhead Pressure Management Project (WPMP) in 2024, which is designed to optimize the field and processing plants. The FGP expansion aims to increase crude oil production by 260,000 barrels per day at full capacity.

• Brightmark RNG delivers first gas at 10 renewable natural gas (RNG) projects.Brightmark RNG Holdings LLC delivered first gas at 10 renewable natural gas (RNG) projects across the Midwest. Brightmark RNG Holdings LLC is a joint venture between Chevron U.S.A. Inc., a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), and Brightmark Fund Holdings LLC, a subsidiary of Brightmark LLC. Brightmark RNG Holdings LLC joint venture now owns and operates 15 RNG projects in the Midwest, a region that generates nearly 43 percent of the nation’s agricultural products. This milestone makes Brightmark one of the leading dairy RNG providers in the United States.

• KazMunayGas strengthens cooperation in geological exploration with Shell and Chevron. KazMunayGas made Agreements with Shell and Chevron for the right to use the geological information, which will enable efficient use of the seismic study results for planning joint exploration work. Cooperation with the strategic partners is aimed at jointly studying the prospects of the Mugodzhar project in Aktobe region.

• SOCAR continues to acquire stakes in strategic assets in foreign countries. SOCAR signed an agreement with Union Energy for the acquisition of 10% effective ownership in the Tamar field, located offshore of Israel, one of the largest and most strategically important gas fields in the Mediterranean basin. With this step, SOCAR has begun implementing investment in upstream projects in the Mediterranean region.

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Downstream:

• CSPC, a Shell-CNOOC joint venture, invests in petrochemical complex expansion in China. CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Company Limited (CSPC), a joint venture between Shell Nanhai B.V. and CNOOC Petrochemicals Investment Ltd, took a final investment decision to expand its petrochemical complex in Daya Bay, Huizhou, south China. The expansion will include a third ethylene cracker with a planned capacity of 1.6 million tonnes per year of ethylene, a key building block to make plastics, and associated downstream derivatives units producing chemicals including linear alpha olefins. This investment also includes a new facility which will produce 320,000 tonnes per year of high-performance specialty chemicals, such as polycarbonates and carbonate solvents.

• BP plans to sell Ruhr Oel GmbH. BP Europa SE announced its intention to market its Ruhr Oel GmbH – BP Gelsenkirchen operation in Germany for potential sale. Its assets include the bp refinery in Gelsenkirchen and DHC Solvent Chemie GmbH in Mülheim an der Ruhr. The marketing process for a suitable buyer will begin immediately with sales agreements targeted for 2025.

• TotalEnergies launch construction of ArtawiGas25 in Iraq. TotalEnergies (45%, operator) and its partners Basra Oil Company (30%) and QatarEnergy (25%) launched the construction works of ArtawiGas25, a first processing facility for the associated gas from the Ratawi field, located in the Basra region. This facility, which is part of the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP), represents an investment of around USD 250 million and will process 50 million cubic feet per day (Mcf/d) of gas previously flared.

• OMV and ADNOC to consider acquisition of Nova Chemicals. OMV and ADNOC contemplate, subject to respective agreements with Mubadala, a possible acquisition of Nova Chemicals (by the future potential joint venture company as a first growth opportunity) as part of OMV's and ADNOC's negotiations on a potential cooperation with respect to their polyolefins businesses. Such cooperation would include a potential combination of Borealis, Borouge and Nova Chemicals businesses to create a global polyolefin group with a material presence in key markets.

• TA’ZIZ awards methanol EPC contract to SAMSUNG E&A. TA’ZIZ awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract of $1.7 billion (AED6.2 billion) to SAMSUNG E&A for the construction of one of the world’s largest methanol plants in Al Ruwais Industrial City, Al Dhafra region, Abu Dhabi. The 1.8 million tons per annum (mtpa) plant will be the first methanol production facility in the UAE. Upon completion in 2028, it will be powered by clean energy from the grid, making it one of the world’s most energy-efficient methanol plants.

Trading & Logistics:

• Trafigura demonstrates LPG/ammonia combined shipment. Trafigura in collaboration with CF Industries, the world’s largest producer of ammonia, announced the completion of the first co-loaded ammonia and propane shipment operation of its kind. In early January, the Green Power Medium Gas Carrier (MGC) completed a single voyage from the US to Europe loaded with ammonia from CF Industries and with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG or propane) in separate tanks. The co-loaded vessel project was intended in part as a demonstration of capabilities needed for the efficient and economic transport of low-carbon ammonia to supply ports that may not require a full vessel of ammonia. The ability to co-load low-carbon ammonia with LPG is one pathway to supporting the scale up in availability of low emission fuels.

Financing:

• Trafigura places facility of credit-insured receivables and prepayments totalling USD1 billion. Trafigura announced the closing of its inaugural uncommitted discounted facility of credit-insured receivables and prepayments (the “Facility”) totalling USD1 billion. The Facility was substantially oversubscribed and upsized from its initial launch amount of USD800 million, with seven financial institutions participating in the transaction. Natixis CIB was mandated to arrange and coordinate the Facility, serving as the document, facility and security agent, as well as sole Active Bookrunner and Mandated Lead Arranger. First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, Mizuho Bank, Ltd. and MUFG, acted as Mandated Lead Arrangers; Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, Nedbank Ltd, London Branch, acted as Lead Arrangers; and Bank ABC acted as Arranger. Brokers Lockton and Guy Carpenter supported the structuring of the Facility.

• Macquarie provides debt financing to Greenalia Power Spain. Macquarie Asset Management provided €97 million of debt financing to Greenalia Power Spain (“Greenalia”), an independent power producer focused exclusively on renewable energy.Greenalia is a developer, owner and operator of renewable energy assets across Spain, Portugal and the US. The business manages a portfolio of approximately 15.5 GW, with projects in development, under construction, and in operation.

• Trafigura Group successfully issues Panda bonds. Trafigura Group issued a 1,500 million renminbi-denominated bond (circa USD205 million equivalent) with a tenor of three years, in China’s domestic debt market (“Panda Bond”). This marks the successful return to the Panda Bond market for Trafigura after a three year period. The significant size of the financing demonstrated the strong appetite from Chinese and international RMB investors, including commercial banks, asset managers and securities firms. Thirteen investors took part in the Panda Bond, with Bank of China Limited acting as Lead Bookrunner, with Bank of Communications Co., Ltd; China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd and Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd as Joint Lead Bookrunners.

Thought leadership:

• Vortexa published an article analysing effects of Uncertainty vs volatility on crude and freight markets. (https://www.vortexa.com/insights/crude/uncertainty-vs-volatility-and-the-difference-between-flows-and-freight/)

• Rystad Energy published its white paper on challenges for energy in MENA region – the need to find a balance between traditional oil and gas with transition to new energies. (https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/future-of-energy-in-mena-balancing-traditional-oil-and-gas-with-transition-to-new)

• Kpler published its Refined products demand outlook for 2025, which foresees it willgrow by 0.88 Mbd y/y in 2025, down from 1.40 Mbd in 2024 and 3.43 Mbd in 2023, continuing a trend of slowing growth since 2021. For more details and product breakdown: https://www.kpler.com/blog/refined-products-demand-outlook-for-2025

• Vitol published its long-term outlook on oil demand development (https://vitoloutlook.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Vitol-long-term-oil-demand-outlook_Feb-2025.pdf) Key take-aways:

  • To 2040, there is likely no global reduction in overall oil consumption: Declining demand from the middle of next decade only reverses the year-on-year increase in oil use over the next few years. Demand in 2040, is expected to be on a par with today.

  • Gasoline and gasoil demand is moderating and is anticipated to fall as the electrification of road transport continues and gasoil use in other sectors declines. The outlook for these road transport fuels – at around half the barrel – is shaping the global oil demand trajectory.

  • In the absence of any disruptive technologies over the forecast horizon, jet fuel and LPG demand (for residential and commercial use and petrochemical feedstocks) are expected to continue to rise.

  • If, however, adoption of electric vehicles1 (EVs) stalls, and targets were to be pushed back by just 5 years, road transport fuel demand could be 2-3 million bpd higher in 2040 than current projections.

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