<script data-pm-proxy="intercept"></script><?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></title><description><![CDATA[SparkNotes for fantasy football podcasts]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png</url><title>FF Hound</title><link>https://ffhound.substack.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:25:18 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[ffhound@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[ffhound@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[ffhound@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[ffhound@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.31.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[22 episodes, 22 hours + 6 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-83126</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-83126</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:00:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 22 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-83126-full-notes">LINK</a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Today's Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#128680; <strong>Jacobs lands on exempt list</strong>: Josh Jacobs was placed on the commissioner's exempt list amid legal issues, clouding his outlook and opening significant volume for MarShawn Lloyd. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li><li><p>&#127973; <strong>Injuries open backfield runways</strong>: Zach Charbonnet starting the season on PUP and James Conner landing on short-term IR clear paths for immediate touches. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>)</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late QB tier solidifies</strong>: Waiting on QB remains a dominant strategy as starters like Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, and Justin Herbert slide into double-digit rounds. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Life Show</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#129472; MarShawn Lloyd (RB, GB)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Lloyd vaults into the top-25 RB conversation as Green Bay's primary runner with Josh Jacobs sidelined.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Lloyd rises to the RB24-RB26 range across multiple boards following Jacobs' placement on the commissioner's exempt list. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Daily with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield</em>)</p></li><li><p>Chris Brooks is expected to handle third downs and take 30% to 50% of backfield touches. (<em>The Audible</em>, <em>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#9889; Jadarian Price (RB, SEA)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Price offers immediate RB2 starting utility over the first month of the season.</strong></p><ul><li><p>With Zach Charbonnet starting on PUP following February knee surgery, Price projects as Seattle's primary early-down runner. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li><li><p>Veteran George Holani could mix in and siphon early-season touches during Price's initial acclimation. (<em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#129413; DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Smith projects for a full WR1 breakout as the clear alpha receiver in Philadelphia.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Smith commanded a 32.9% target share and averaged 10 targets per game in contests without A.J. Brown since 2022. (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li><li><p>Volatility in Philadelphia's run-heavy scheme and his light playing weight pose consistency concerns. (<em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#129452; Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Kincaid possesses top-five TE upside at a discounted late-round draft price.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Kincaid led all TEs in targets per route run over the last two years and is fully past his PCL injury. (<em>The Audible</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li><li><p>Buffalo ranked bottom-eight in dropback rate under Joe Brady, while Dawson Knox continues to cap Kincaid's snaps. (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#128059; Luther Burden (WR, CHI)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Burden is primed for an immediate fantasy impact in Chicago's revamped passing attack.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Burden ranked third in yards per route run among WRs with 50-plus targets and has fully recovered from a groin strain. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li><li><p>Target competition remains fierce alongside Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, and D'Andre Swift in Ben Johnson's offense. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>)</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#127919; Early QB Investments vs. Late-Round Punting</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Analysts disagree on whether to spend early second-round capital on elite dual-threat passers or wait for double-digit values.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Anchoring a roster with an elite QB provides a distinct scoring ceiling that separates fantasy lineups on a weekly basis. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Drafting Josh Allen at pick 2.08 forfeits elite WR and TE depth when QB15-tier options offer comparable weekly utility. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#128201; Christian McCaffrey's First-Round Valuation</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Fantasy managers must weigh McCaffrey's unmatched weekly ceiling against severe touch-cliff and regression risks.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> McCaffrey offers a league-winning profile worthy of a top-four selection whenever he is on the field. (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> RBs historically drop 5 to 7 fantasy points per game following 450-touch seasons, while McCaffrey's underlying efficiency metrics dipped significantly last year. (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</em>)</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.31.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[22 episodes, 22 hours + 6 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-83126-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-83126-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:59:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>22 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>22 hours and 6 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</strong>: <em>Buy or Sell on Fantasy's Most Controversial Players For 2026? (Episode 1015 with Evan Silva, Adam Levitan, John Daigle, Mark Dankenbring)</em> (August 29)</p></li><li><p><strong>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</strong>: <em>News and Ranking Changes: Fallout From Josh Jacobs Mess, NFL Roster Cuts, and Silva's Top-150 Changes (Episode 1016 with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan)</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>2026 College Football Week 1 Bets!</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Aaron Donald returns to the Rams &amp; NFL Roster Cuts Thoughts</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>LIVE 2026 Fantasy Focus Show League Draft</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield</strong>: <em>Josh Jacobs Lands on Commissioner Exempt List: 2026 Fantasy Football Strategy + Preseason Takeaways</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>Josh Jacobs Update, Roster Cuts, and the Biggest QB Fantasy Questions with Nate Tice</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Auction Tips &amp; Strategy + Mailbag Q&amp;A! (08/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 29)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Fantasy Football Risers &amp; Fallers You NEED to Know Before Your Draft (08/31 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Josh Jacobs Placed on Commissioner's Exempt List: MarShawn Lloyd &amp; Kaleb Johnson Values (08/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Jacobs Fallout, Preseason Takeaways + Mailbag - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/31</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>THE MEGALASHOW! Bold Predictions LIVE in PHX - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/29</em> (August 29)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Life Show</strong>: <em>The Best Values on Every Platform for Every Position for 2026 Fantasy Football (ESPN, Yahoo &amp; Sleeper)</em> (August 29)</p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Late-Round Players We Love &amp; Jacobs Suspension</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</strong>: <em>Feel It or F&#8211;It 8.31.26 with Bob Harris and Matt Waldman</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Audible</strong>: <em>3 Fantasy Football Sleepers That You Need To Draft! | On the Couch w/Sigmund Bloom</em> (August 29)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Audible</strong>: <em>How Will Josh Jacobs Backfield Shakeup Reshape the Packers' Offense &#8212; and Your Fantasy Draft Board</em> (August 30)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</strong>: <em>The Players Most Likely to Burn Us This Year</em> (August 30)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</strong>: <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football League Live Draft</em> (August 29)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</strong>: <em>The 14 Players I'm Betting My Entire Fantasy Season Against</em> (August 30)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>12 Guys We&#8217;d Jump Through A Table For in 2026</em> (August 31)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>BONUS POD: Fantasy Q&amp;A Live from Buffalo</em> (August 31)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</h2><p><em>Buy or Sell on Fantasy's Most Controversial Players For 2026? (Episode 1015 with Evan Silva, Adam Levitan, John Daigle, Mark Dankenbring)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Evaluating target earners, red zone touch concentration, and team offensive environment provides a distinct edge when deciding whether to buy or sell polarizing players across the middle and late rounds of drafts.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyren Williams:</strong> Draftable in the third round around ADP 27 due to heavy red zone touch share and receiving work on a projected top-5 scoring Rams offense, though Blake Corum poses a threat to early-down work.</p></li><li><p>From Week 7 on last season, Kyren had a 60-40 carry edge over Corum.</p></li><li><p>Red zone carries: Kyren 51 inside the 20 (Corum 26), 30 inside the 10 (Corum 16), 18 inside the 5 (Corum 9).</p></li><li><p>Targets last season including playoffs: Kyren 60 (350 receiving yards, 5 TDs) vs. Corum 19 (73 yards, 0 TDs).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Target Colston Loveland at pick 38 over Trey McBride at pick 30 due to high offensive scoring environment with Caleb Williams and unsustainable Arizona pass volume.</p></li><li><p>Loveland matched McBride's full-season target share over his final 5 games as starter.</p></li><li><p>Jacoby Brissett averaged 40 pass attempts per game last season (a 3% historical outcome over the last decade).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rashee Rice:</strong> Shy away from Rashee Rice at ADP 36 due to health/knee concerns, off-field legal issues, and increased offensive focus on Kenneth Walker and Cyrus Allen.</p></li><li><p>32% target per route run last season (4th in NFL), 35% the prior season.</p></li><li><p>Cyrus Allen had a 20% target share and 12 TDs in his final college season at Cincinnati.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> Draft Dalton Kincaid instead of DJ Moore in Buffalo's offense, as Moore is aging and Ben Johnson willingly traded him away from Chicago.</p></li><li><p>DJ Moore Yahoo ADP 48, Silva rank 52.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rome Odunze:</strong> Fade Rome Odunze at ADP 51; he projects as the third target behind Luther Burden and Colston Loveland in Chicago's passing attack with a low career catch rate.</p></li><li><p>Rome Odunze ADP 51 on Yahoo (ETR rank 71).</p></li><li><p>Odunze career catch rate: 102 receptions on 203 targets (~50%).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Target Bucky Irving at ADP 58, as his goal-line path opens up significantly if the Buccaneers release Sean Tucker, operating behind a top-3 offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Sean Tucker had 9 carries inside the 5-yard line last season to Bucky's 0.</p></li><li><p>Kenneth Gainwell signed a 2-year, $14 million deal ($10 million guaranteed).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Be cautious with Bhayshul Tuten at ADP 59, as Chris Rodriguez projects for short-yardage and goal-line work while LeQuint Allen threatens passing downs behind a bottom-ranked offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Under 400 scrimmage yards as a rookie 4th-round pick.</p></li><li><p>Jaguars offensive line ranked 30th by Brandon Thorne.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Draft Jadarian Price at ADP 62 as a high-upside starter for the first month of the season with Zach Charbonnet likely starting on PUP and Emanuel Wilson battling injury.</p></li><li><p>Charbonnet likely to start on PUP and miss at least 4 games.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> Consider drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. once he falls into the 70s as a bounce-back prospect bet despite a slow start to his NFL career.</p></li><li><p>Marvin Harrison Jr. Yahoo default rank 68.</p></li><li><p>Career NFL stats: 21% target per route run, 7.9 YPT, 12 TDs on 189 targets (6.3% TD rate).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Stash TreVeyon Henderson if his ADP slides into the 70s or 80s as a high-ceiling bench RB who possesses league-winning potential if he earns touches from Rhamondre Stevenson.</p></li><li><p>TreVeyon Henderson ADP 69 on Yahoo, falling towards 70s/80s.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brian Thomas Jr.:</strong> Avoid drafting Brian Thomas Jr. at ADP 73 due to crowded target competition, deep-threat pigeonholing, and a brutal early-season schedule facing elite shadow cornerbacks.</p></li><li><p>400 fewer YAC in sophomore year compared to rookie season as aDOT rose 3 yards.</p></li><li><p>Jaguars face 6 shadow corner defenses before Week 7 bye, allowing 41.5 YPG collectively to WR1s.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Fade Jonathon Brooks at ADP 76 as he heads into a low-scoring offense split with Chuba Hubbard behind an offensive line missing both starting tackles early.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on 30% of routes across a 3-game sample with Hubbard in 2024.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jacory Croskey-Merritt:</strong> Avoid Jacory Croskey-Merritt at his elevated ADP of 86 because Rachaad White projects for pass protection and goal-line work following Laremy Tunsil's injury.</p></li><li><p>Jacory Croskey-Merritt Yahoo default rank 86 (up from 120s).</p></li><li><p>Jayden Daniels has an approximate 13% career scramble rate.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Target KC Concepcion around ADP 105 as an explosive starting slot receiver and dynamic return specialist who will earn high-percentage touches in Todd Monken's offense.</p></li><li><p>KC Concepcion ADP 105 on Yahoo (up from 130s).</p></li><li><p>Rushed for 430 yards and 2 TDs in college.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ja'Kobi Lane:</strong> Take a late-round flyer on Ja'Kobi Lane around ADP 189 given standout training camp reports and an opportunity to earn the Ravens WR2 role over Rashod Bateman.</p></li><li><p>Measurables: nearly 6-foot-5, 200 pounds.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</h2><p><em>News and Ranking Changes: Fallout From Josh Jacobs Mess, NFL Roster Cuts, and Silva's Top-150 Changes (Episode 1016 with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Roster cutdowns and late-preseason news have drastically shifted draft boards: Marshawn Lloyd and Javonte Williams see major value spikes following backfield developments, while injuries and crowded depth charts warrant caution on players like Cam Skattebo, Emeka Egbuka, and Ashton Jeanty.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Placed on the commissioner's exempt list amid legal issues; Silva has completely removed him from the Top 150 and considers him undraftable.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Direct beneficiary of Jacobs' absence in an offense projected to throw 600+ times; Silva ranks him 65th overall while ETR ranks him 72nd.</p></li><li><p>Consensus ADP around pick 75-80.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kaleb Johnson:</strong> Acquired by the Packers for a 6th-round pick but sits as the RB3 behind Marshawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks, making him not worth stashing in standard leagues.</p></li><li><p>Ranked outside the Top 200.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Fully recovered from a 2-3 week groin injury and practicing in full two weeks ahead of Week 1; Silva has moved him up to 33rd overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kyle Pitts:</strong> Silva ranks Pitts at 74th overall, ahead of Harold Fannin (79th), Tucker Kraft, and Sam LaPorta, citing strong schematic fit with Kevin Stefanski and Tua Tagovailoa's quick release.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Dealing with an ankle sprain and facing increased competition from Mike Washington; Silva dropped Jeanty to 34th overall and projects a 55-45 split in Week 1 against Miami.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Managing a high ankle sprain and not yet 100%; Tyler Allgeier becomes a viable flex option in Week 1 against the Chargers if Love is ruled out.</p></li><li><p>Jeremiyah Love ranked 35th overall by Silva.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Javonte Williams:</strong> Value boosted significantly into the late 2nd / early 3rd round after Dallas cut Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah, locking in Williams as the primary workhorse.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 25th overall in ETR ranks.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emmett Johnson:</strong> Earned the Chiefs' clear RB2 role behind Kenneth Walker after Emari Demercado was released; profiled as a top handcuff stash across all league formats.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Lingering toe injury uncertainty warrants dropping him behind WRs like DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle, Ladd McConkey, Garrett Wilson, and Tee Higgins.</p></li><li><p>Dropped to 45th overall in ETR ranks.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo:</strong> Giants retained four active RBs including Najee Harris; Silva lowered Skattebo to 64th overall as a multi-back committee is expected.</p></li><li><p>ADP in the 40s.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Should be an automatic draft target if he falls to Round 6 or Round 7, especially on platforms like ESPN where his default ranking is depressed.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>2026 College Football Week 1 Bets!</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> No broadly actionable seasonal-redraft analysis remained after format-specific guidance was omitted. &#128465;&#65039;</p><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Aaron Donald returns to the Rams &amp; NFL Roster Cuts Thoughts</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Roster construction remains highly fluid heading into Week 1, highlighted by significant fantasy and real-life disruptions like Josh Jacobs being placed on the commissioner's exempt list and backup QB depth charts churning across multiple teams.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Josh Jacobs has been placed on the commissioner's exempt list, creating massive uncertainty for the Packers offense, which is heavily built around him and the running game.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Keenan Allen was arrested for a DUI, but legal proceedings typically take time to play out before the league levies suspensions, meaning the issue may not impact his availability for the Colts this season.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Kyle McCord:</strong> The Dolphins acquired Kyle McCord via trade from the Green Bay to serve as their primary backup QB behind Tua Tagovailoa.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in the 6th round by the Eagles last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Quinn Ewers:</strong> The Jaguars traded for Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers to serve as their QB2, subsequently releasing veteran Nick Mullens.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jalon Daniels:</strong> Undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels has secured the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' backup QB spot behind Baker Mayfield.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Aaron Donald:</strong> Aaron Donald has officially returned to the Rams on a 1-year contract worth $20 million with incentives reaching up to $30 million.</p></li><li><p>$20,000,000 base value.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>LIVE 2026 Fantasy Focus Show League Draft</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Josh Jacobs' placement on the exempt list muddies the Packers' backfield and drops his value into RB3 territory while elevating Marshawn Lloyd, highlighting the need for dynamic draft-board adjustments as early-round RB runs make WR value plentiful in the mid-to-late rounds.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs was placed on the commissioner's exempt list and is due in court November 17, creating massive uncertainty; he is not eligible for the IR slot on ESPN fantasy platforms and has dropped into the mid-to-late RB20s in rankings.</p></li><li><p>Dropped to RB25 in rankings.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in the 7th round (pick 9 of round 7).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Lloyd is projected as Green Bay's lead back for week one against Minnesota while Jacobs is out; he is rankable around RB20 for the opening stretch of games and is being drafted ahead of Jacobs.</p></li><li><p>Drafted early 7th round (pick 2).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> With no NFL disciplinary action announced before roster cutdowns, Nacua is trending toward no suspension or a very brief one, justifying moving him back up over Ja'Marr Chase in the top 3-4 picks.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>RB Draft Strategy:</strong> A heavy run on RBs in rounds 2 and 3 can quickly dry up reliable starters, forcing drafters who waited to either reach for lower-tier backs or capitalize on elite WR and TE discounts.</p></li><li><p>9 consecutive RBs drafted in round 2.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TE Tiering:</strong> There is a noticeable drop-off after the top four TEs (Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren); drafters wanting an elite edge at the position must pull the trigger around the late 3rd to early 5th round turn.</p></li><li><p>Top 4 TE tier cutoff.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>QB Draft Strategy:</strong> In standard 1-QB leagues, drafters can safely wait until rounds 9-11 and pair undervalued options like Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, or Matthew Stafford, exploiting the depth that runs through QB15.</p></li><li><p>Bo Nix finished QB7 two years in a row.</p></li><li><p>Brock Purdy top-10 in points per game 3 straight seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dallas Goedert:</strong> Goedert represents an exceptional late-round value as a backend TE1 who has finished top-12 in points per game for seven consecutive seasons and maintains a projected 20% target share in Philadelphia's offense.</p></li><li><p>Top-12 PPG for 7 consecutive seasons.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in the 14th round.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jordyn Tyson / Christian Kirk / Tank Dell:</strong> Players designated to return from short-term IR at cutdowns must miss at least four games, making late-round picks like Tyson ideal candidates to stash directly in IR spots to free up bench space for waiver wire adds.</p></li><li><p>Minimum 4 games missed on short-term IR.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily with Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield</h2><p><em>Josh Jacobs Lands on Commissioner Exempt List: 2026 Fantasy Football Strategy + Preseason Takeaways</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Josh Jacobs' absence opens up immense backfield opportunity for Marshawn Lloyd and forces a pass-heavier scheme for Jordan Love and Packers receivers, while preseason usage trends highlight undervalued late-round targets across several ambiguous depth charts.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Elevated to RB26 in Scott Barrett's rankings following Josh Jacobs landing on the Commissioner Exempt List. Lloyd is considered an 'Exodia' target due to zero backfield competition and dynamic pass-catching ability, though his extensive soft-tissue injury history remains a major risk.</p></li><li><p>Priced at RB56 on Sleeper, RB47 on ESPN, RB48 on Yahoo.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Green Bay Pass Catchers:</strong> Packers projected pass rate was boosted from 55% to 58%, increasing projections for Christian Watson (WR23), Jaylen Reed (WR39), and Tucker Kraft (TE12). Jordan Love's per-dropback efficiency (0.50 FP/dropback, 5th overall) offers high upside if pass volume increases.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Avoid drafting Jacobs in standard home leagues given the exempt list situation.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Charlie Kolar:</strong> Kolar played 100% of starter snaps in the preseason while Oronde Gadsden barely played with starters. Brett views Kolar as an every-down starting TE, whereas Scott views him purely as a blocking TE in a committee with David Njoku.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ladd McConkey vs. Quentin Johnston:</strong> Scott pivoted back to McConkey over Johnston after reports revealed McConkey played through an August injury all last season yet still averaged 106.8 yards per game over his final 8 rookie games. Brett continues to back Johnston's physical progression and fit.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malachi Fields:</strong> Fields received clear starting treatment in the preseason (rested in preseason Week 3) and has established chemistry with Jaxson Dart, making him a priority late-round dart throw in deep leagues while Malik Nabers returns to full health.</p></li><li><p>Rested in preseason Week 3 after playing only 3 snaps in Week 2.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jacob Saylors:</strong> With Isiah Pacheco sidelined by knee and back injuries, Saylors has secured the Lions RB2 role behind Jahmyr Gibbs and is an elite final-round handcuff target with standalone committee and contingency bellcow upside.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 6.0 yards per carry in preseason.</p></li><li><p>Produced 2 of the top 3 fantasy PPG seasons in UFL history.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Emmett Johnson:</strong> Johnson emerged as Kansas City's primary backup behind an injury-prone Kenneth Walker III. His elite missed-tackles-forced rate and pass-catching profile make him one of the premier late-round RB handcuffs in fantasy.</p></li><li><p>Forced 11 missed tackles in the preseason.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> Downs is viewed as an elite value at his WR50 ADP because Keenan Allen operated outside in the preseason, cementing Downs as the primary slot receiver in 11 personnel and full-time option in heavy sets.</p></li><li><p>Ranked second in targets per route run behind Puka Nacua when Michael Pittman Jr. was off the field.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Makai Lemon vs. Dontayvion Wicks:</strong> Fade Makai Lemon in redraft after struggles with separation, drops, and route nuance in preseason. Pivot to Dontayvion Wicks, who is drawing heavy target volume in practice and ranks as a top-10 separator.</p></li><li><p>Lemon posted 5 targets, 3 yards, and 0.21 YPRR in sole preseason game.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Despite Cam Ward's erratic preseason play, beat reports from Easton Freeze indicate Tate is the clear best player on the Titans. Scott ranks Tate at WR30 (ahead of his WR35 ADP), while Wan'Dale Robinson projects as a low-aDOT PPR volume earner.</p></li><li><p>Wan'Dale Robinson average depth of route under 3.0 yards in camp.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>Josh Jacobs Update, Roster Cuts, and the Biggest QB Fantasy Questions with Nate Tice</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Josh Jacobs being on the commissioner exempt list creates an immediate top-25 fantasy RB opportunity for Marshawn Lloyd, while Zach Charbonnet's PUP stint opens a huge early-season runway for Jadarian Price.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Elevated to RB25 (65th overall) following Josh Jacobs' placement on the commissioner exempt list, making him a solid 6th-to-7th round target as Green Bay's primary zone runner.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Placing Jacobs on the commissioner exempt list brings immense downside; Berry moved him down to RB52 (150th overall) and views him as largely undraftable unless holding an IR/NA slot with flexible rules.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> With Zach Charbonnet on the PUP list and out for at least four games, Price is positioned to take over the primary rushing role and is ranked at RB24 ahead of Marshawn Lloyd.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Zach Charbonnet:</strong> Placed on PUP to miss at least four games; dropped to RB50 and 147th overall due to uncertainty around his post-injury workload split.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Allen is the consensus QB1, but his round-3 price tag (ADP 25) makes Berry prefer waiting at QB to secure high-end RBs or an elite TE like Colston Loveland.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: 30th overall (QB1).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Daniels possesses high-end per-game fantasy upside (averaging 22 PPG in games with 85%+ snap share), leading Berry to rank him well ahead of ADP at 48th overall (ADP 68), though Tice urges caution due to offensive line and sack concerns.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Patrick Mahomes:</strong> Coming off ACL surgery, Mahomes is projected for reduced scrambling and a heavier team run rate with Kenneth Walker, positioning him as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: QB14.</p></li><li><p>Berry overall rank: 101st.</p></li><li><p>Current ADP: 110th overall.</p></li><li><p>25% of fantasy points came from rushing last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Irving has looked sharp in preseason action behind an improving Buccaneers offensive line, making him a compelling buy-low RB target despite backfield competition from Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker.</p></li><li><p>Weighed in at 188-190 lbs out of Oregon.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kyler Murray:</strong> Berry is bullish on Murray in Kevin O'Connell's offense, placing him at QB13 and 95th overall against a 130 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Vikings QB fantasy points: Top 10 in 3 of last 4 seasons under O'Connell.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Auction Tips &amp; Strategy + Mailbag Q&amp;A! (08/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Never price enforce on players you are not prepared to roster, as you risk blowing your budget on duplicate high-cost positions when opposing bidders pass. Nominate high-end or buzzworthy players you do not want early in drafts to drain your league mates' budgets, saving your capital for late-auctio.</p><ul><li><p>Example of $20 QB bids leaving managers stuck with two costly QBs in 1-QB leagues.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>Target mid-tier players ranked between 40 and 60 who slip through the cracks late.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>40% to 55% of budget for two top-25 players.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs:</strong> Gibbs offers league-winning ceiling due to his efficiency and massive red zone upside with David Montgomery no longer siphoning goal-line work.</p></li><li><p>Averaged ~25 fantasy PPG in 17 career games with 15+ carries.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Rank Bowers ahead of Trey McBride because Bowers possesses the profile to potentially lead the entire NFL in targets and receptions with less target competition than McBride.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> Exercise caution ranking Olave as a locked-in high-end WR1 despite his strong late-season production, as his split was boosted by matchups against several of the NFL's weakest defenses.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR6 in PPG following QB change over small sample against weak defenses.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Carolina Backfield:</strong> Targeting both Jonathon Brooks and Chuba Hubbard in rounds 8 and 9 represents a strong, cost-effective way to lock up a backfield with defined early-down and passing-down roles.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Mark Andrews:</strong> Andrews is best viewed as a TE13/14 fallback rather than a prioritized target, as his ceiling is heavily touchdown-dependent following back-to-back 70-target seasons.</p></li><li><p>69 targets in 2024 and 70 targets in 2025 across 17-game seasons.</p></li><li><p>Needs 8+ TDs to finish inside the top 12.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey Handcuffs:</strong> Kaelon Black holds the early edge over Jordan James as McCaffrey's primary backup based on preseason starting usage, though an injury could trigger a multi-back committee.</p></li><li><p>Black played every snap on the first two series of recent preseason action.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Green Bay Passing Offense:</strong> The Packers passing game is an underrated fantasy target due to high efficiency per target among its young pass catchers and projected increase in pass rate.</p></li><li><p>Jayden Reed (#1) and Christian Watson (#3) rank in top 5 in fantasy points per target since 2022.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Fantasy Football Risers &amp; Fallers You NEED to Know Before Your Draft (08/31 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> The Green Bay offense sees major reshuffling with Josh Jacobs fading and MarShawn Lloyd, Tucker Kraft, and Jaylen Reed gaining significant fantasy appeal, while training camp updates and injury returns create critical buying and fading windows across all positions.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Lloyd enters the RB2 conversation starting in Round 6 with high-end RB2 upside, though his injury history and the potential return of Josh Jacobs keep him risky. Dave targets him in Rounds 7-8, while Adam is open to taking him in Round 5-6.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 61st overall and RB25 by Heath.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chris Brooks:</strong> Brooks represents an under-the-radar late-round flyer or waiver stash who has a track record on passing downs and could step into standalone flex value or a larger rushing role if MarShawn Lloyd misses time.</p></li><li><p>Double-digit round target in PPR/Half-PPR.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Burden has risen back into Round 4 consideration after returning to practice. Last season, Burden ranked 3rd in yards per route run among WRs with 50+ targets, and the offense has 150 vacated targets from departed receivers.</p></li><li><p>Heath's WR18.</p></li><li><p>Targeted at Round 3/4 turn (picks 47-50).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Godwin:</strong> Godwin is healthy entering Week 1 and possesses established chemistry with Baker Mayfield, making his discounted ADP a strong value in middle rounds.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR30 by Adam (Round 5-6).</p></li><li><p>Recent ADP around 71st overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jaylen Reed:</strong> Reed is Jamie's top sleeper across all positions due to expected increased passing volume and rushing usage in Green Bay. In his last 23 games with at least 5 targets, Reed scored 13.5+ PPR points in 15 of them, averaging 16.1 PPR points.</p></li><li><p>ADP at 91st overall / WR43 on NFFC (116 on FantasyPros).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> With Josh Jacobs sidelined and the run game in question, Kraft projects as Jordan Love's go-to short-area target, elevating him into the top-60 overall range.</p></li><li><p>Round 5 target.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jared Goff:</strong> Goff has climbed into top-12 fantasy QB territory due to Detroit's high-powered offense, Jameson Williams' emergence, a suspect defense leading to shootouts, and an indoor-heavy schedule.</p></li><li><p>Targeted ahead of Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Stevenson is a secure 1A RB whose efficiency should benefit from AJ Brown stretching defenses, making him a solid Round 6 target ahead of TreVeyon Henderson.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as RB27 on NFFC (74th overall on CBS).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> Olave profiles as a high-end WR1 who should dominate targets in a fast-paced New Orleans offense, making him worthy of early Round 2 consideration.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR9 / Pick 22-24 by Dave.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> With Travis Hunter focusing mostly on defense in recent practices, Washington is slated for heavy slot and overall target volume, offering 80-catch and 1,100-yard upside.</p></li><li><p>Round 5-6 target.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty is moving down draft boards toward the Round 3/4 turn as Mike Washington's strong preseason performance indicates Jeanty may not see a full workhorse workload.</p></li><li><p>Fallen from Round 2 to Round 3/4 turn.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Concerns regarding Washington's offensive line and left tackle spot have lowered Daniels in Dave's rankings, while Heath and Jamie view the drop in sentiment as a prime buying opportunity for elite rushing ceiling.</p></li><li><p>Dave: Early Round 7 / below Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert.</p></li><li><p>Heath: QB4 / Round 6.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rashee Rice:</strong> Rice is a polarizing WR2/WR3; Dave fades him to Round 3 due to Kenneth Walker's potential involvement and fewer pass attempts, while Adam and Jamie argue Rice's elite target dominance (18.7 PPG in his last 17 games) insulates him.</p></li><li><p>WR14 on NFFC.</p></li><li><p>18.7 PPR PPG across last 17 healthy games (163-target pace).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Following his DWI arrest and Alec Pierce's return to practice, Allen is not worth pursuing in redraft leagues unless taken with a speculative Round 12+ pick in full PPR.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Josh Jacobs Placed on Commissioner's Exempt List: MarShawn Lloyd &amp; Kaleb Johnson Values (08/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> With Josh Jacobs facing an extended or season-long absence on the commissioner's exempt list, Marshawn Lloyd steps into lead early-down duties in Green Bay's high-efficiency scheme, while Jordan Love and pass-catchers like Christian Watson receive a fantasy volume boost.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs was placed on the commissioner's exempt list following domestic violence charges with a November court date; historically, 4 of the last 5 players placed on the list for DV missed the entire season, making him a high-risk draft pick in double-digit rounds.</p></li><li><p>Jamie ranks Jacobs as RB44 (Round 10 range).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Lloyd projects as Green Bay's primary early-down runner with Chris Brooks handling passing downs; fantasy draft capital ranges from late Round 5 to Round 7 (RB25-RB35 range).</p></li><li><p>Drafted 58th overall in 10-team draft.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Green Bay RBs:</strong> A Packers RB has finished top 16 per game in non-PPR and top 13 per game in full PPR in six of seven seasons under Matt LaFleur, establishing high baseline upside for the lead back.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chris Brooks:</strong> Brooks has handled passing downs in preseason and serves as a cheap speculative waiver target due to Lloyd's past injury history.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> If Green Bay pivots to a heavier pass rate, a 20% target share for Watson equates to roughly 116 targets and 14.3 PPR fantasy points per game based on his career metrics.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jordan Love:</strong> Green Bay throws at a 61% pass rate on 634 snaps when Love is on the field without Jacobs (52% on 1st/2nd downs; 54% on early downs in Q1-Q3), signaling higher pass volume with Jacobs sidelined.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Jacobs Fallout, Preseason Takeaways + Mailbag - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/31</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Josh Jacobs' sudden placement on the commissioner's exempt list creates massive fantasy opportunity for MarShawn Lloyd as Green Bay's primary back, while Zach Charbonnet opening on PUP cements Jadarian Price as an immediate high-upside starting option.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> With Josh Jacobs on the commissioner's exempt list, Lloyd is ranked in the RB24-30 range with top-12 upside in Green Bay's offense, though durability is the primary concern. Do not drop Lloyd for depth addition Kaleb Johnson.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs was placed on the commissioner's exempt list following legal issues. He is only worth considering as a speculative final-round pick if you are willing to burn a bench spot without IR eligibility.</p></li><li><p>Minimum 6-game suspension standard for domestic violence cases.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jordan Love:</strong> Without Jacobs dominating goal-line volume, Love's passing and TD volume should increase, elevating his fantasy ceiling alongside Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden, and Christian Watson in the red zone.</p></li><li><p>QB5 three seasons ago averaging just under 19 points per game with 4 rushing TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> With Zach Charbonnet starting the season on PUP, Price has a clear runway as the lead back and represents immediate starting upside despite George Holani mixing in.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Egbuka is dealing with turf toe, which poses high recurrence and reduced-efficiency risk early in the season. Chris Godwin and Tez Johnson gain early-season target opportunity.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Allen's Sunday DWI arrest is unlikely to impact his 2024 season availability as the legal process will stretch past the season and charges are expected to be reduced.</p></li><li><p>BAC reported under.08.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Cyrus Allen:</strong> Allen operated behind Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and Tyquan Thornton in the preseason finale; he should be faded in redraft leagues until his snap share proves consistent.</p></li><li><p>Unlikely to start at 70%+ snaps.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft / Turn Strategy:</strong> When drafting at the turn, do not rely on ADP value or hope players fall across long turnarounds; proactively target the player you believe scores the most points at a position of need.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>THE MEGALASHOW! Bold Predictions LIVE in PHX - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/29</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-volume bell-cow RBs early, embrace breakout environments like Ben Johnson's Chicago offense, and exercise caution with hyped second-year backs and crowded offenses with heavy target dilution.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Joe Burrow:</strong> Joe Burrow possesses the upside to break single-season passing yardage and TD records given Cincinnati's fast pace, high pass rate, weak defense, and elite pass-catching weapons.</p></li><li><p>Record to beat: Peyton Manning's 5,477 passing yards and 55 TDs (2013).</p></li><li><p>Burrow's 17-game pace in 2024 with healthy Chase and Higgins: ~5,100 yards and 47 passing TDs.</p></li><li><p>Bengals are favored in 15 of 17 games with the 2nd-highest average game total in the league.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Bell-Cow RBs:</strong> Five specific RBs (Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and James Cook III) are projected to eclipse 350 touches this season due to shallow backup competition and defensive shifts to light boxes.</p></li><li><p>10-year NFL average: 2 RBs per season with 350+ touches.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chicago Offense:</strong> The Bears offense is primed for a massive collective breakout under Ben Johnson, offering multiple high-end fantasy starters across all skill positions.</p></li><li><p>Colston Loveland projected top-3 TE.</p></li><li><p>Caleb Williams projected top-5 QB (averaged just under 20 fantasy PPG in year one).</p></li><li><p>Luther Burden projected top-10 WR (25% target share projection on 110 targets; finished 2025 with 18 rec, 289 yds, 3 TDs in final 3 games).</p></li><li><p>D'Andre Swift projected top-12 RB.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Second-Year RBs:</strong> Exercise caution when drafting second-year RBs at their current market ceilings, specifically Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Quinshon Judkins, and TreVeyon Henderson.</p></li><li><p>Ashton Jeanty drafted as RB7 in early round 2 (Raiders favored in only 3 of 17 games).</p></li><li><p>Omarion Hampton drafted as RB9 ahead of Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker III.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jacksonville Offense:</strong> The Jaguars offense is a primary 'Fantasy Trap Team' candidate where individual fantasy production will disappoint due to TD regression and excessive target/touch distribution.</p></li><li><p>Trevor Lawrence had 9 rushing TDs in 2025 (4 off red-zone scrambles).</p></li><li><p>Jakobi Meyers out-targeted Parker Washington 61 to 51 after joining Jacksonville.</p></li><li><p>Brenton Strange was on pace for 85 targets.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> Marvin Harrison Jr. is an undervalued draft target in round 7 who is positioned for a major year-three rebound as a top-15 fantasy WR.</p></li><li><p>In healthy games with Jacoby Brissett: 8.8 targets/gm and 14.4 PPR PPG (nearly 17 PPG with 7+ targets).</p></li><li><p>Led team in target share over Trey McBride when healthy together.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Early First-Round Draft Strategy:</strong> At the 1.04 draft slot, prioritize Christian McCaffrey for ceiling at RB; if drafting WR, target Ja'Marr Chase or Jaxon Smith-Njigba ahead of Puka Nacua.</p></li><li><p>Assumes Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are selected in top 3.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Redraft Stacking Strategy:</strong> While stacking QB and pass-catchers is essential for upside, data shows it also provides a slight win-rate advantage in redraft leagues by creating high weekly scoring variance.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Life Show</h2><p><em>The Best Values on Every Platform for Every Position for 2026 Fantasy Football (ESPN, Yahoo &amp; Sleeper)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafters should exploit major platform ADP inefficiencies&#8212;specifically targeting discount pocket QBs (Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy), undervalued lead rushers (Kenneth Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson), and proven target-earning veterans (Garrett Wilson, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, George Kittle).</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> Herbert is an elite QB value on ESPN at QB14 (ADP 94) compared to a host ranking of QB9 (overall 74), benefiting from Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme and improved weapons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> Lawrence represents a premier QB value on Sleeper (QB12 ADP, 97 overall vs. QB8 rank, 73 overall), insulated by deep offensive weaponry and a high rushing floor demonstrated late last season.</p></li><li><p>25.4 fantasy PPG from Week 12 through wildcard round.</p></li><li><p>8% designed rush rate.</p></li><li><p>29% share of carries inside the 5-yard line.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Walker III:</strong> Walker is a standout RB value on ESPN at RB10 (ranked RB6), possessing clear bell-cow volume and untapped pass-catching ceiling despite minor camp ankle swelling attributed to ill-fitting cleats.</p></li><li><p>Host rank: RB6.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>RB Handcuff Strategy:</strong> Drafters should simultaneously scoop injury/suspension discounts on starting RBs while aggressively targeting clear RB2 handcuffs (e.g., Emmett Johnson, MarShawn Lloyd, Mike Washington, Blake Corum) who offer high contingent upside.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Reports of a 50-50 split between Montgomery and Woody Marks should be faded; Montgomery is locked into goal-line work and trusted veteran volume.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP differential: +3 spots.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Stevenson is a top RB target on Sleeper (RB30 ADP vs. RB25 host rank) due to the coaching staff's trust, goal-line usage, and TreVeyon Henderson's lingering pass-protection struggles.</p></li><li><p>10th in yards per route run.</p></li><li><p>Henderson played only 31% of postseason snaps.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Brooks possesses massive contingent ceiling as a swing-for-the-fences redraft target who could enter round-two territory in future seasons behind Carolina's offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Yahoo ADP: RB33.</p></li><li><p>Host rank: RB30.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Wilson is undervalued at WR21 on Yahoo (WR15 host rank); competent QB play from Geno Smith should unlock his elite target-earning talent.</p></li><li><p>33% target share last season (2nd highest in NFL).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 12.5, 14.8, and 14.2 PPG from 2023 to 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Godwin:</strong> Godwin is heavily mispriced on Sleeper at WR39 (WR31 host rank) and Yahoo, with contingent target upside rising due to Emeka Egbuka's toe injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Evans is a prime value at WR33 on ESPN (WR25 host rank), presenting late 5th-round value due to overblown concern over regular veteran practice rest.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Kittle provides elite target-earning ability and TE1 upside at a severe discount on Sleeper, avoiding the touchdown-dependent volatility of the mid-tier TEs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Draft Strategy:</strong> In managed redraft leagues, prioritize high target-floor TEs (Bowers, Fannin, Kittle, McBride, Loveland) or wait for cheap upside stashes (Sadiq, Strange, Henry) rather than relying on touchdown-dependent mid-tier options (Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Late-Round Players We Love &amp; Jacobs Suspension</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalize on market mispricings in the double-digit rounds by drafting high-floor veteran WRs and target RBs stepping into immediate volume due to injury or depth-chart turmoil.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Downgrade Jacobs to a late-round stash only in leagues with reserve/IR spots following his placement on the commissioner's exempt list, which likely sidelines him into mid-November or longer.</p></li><li><p>Baseline expectation of at least a 6-game suspension.</p></li><li><p>Initial court appearance scheduled for mid-November.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Green Bay Backfield:</strong> Target MarShawn Lloyd in the 6th to 7th round as the upside lead, while taking late-round fliers in rounds 10-11 on Chris Brooks (early-down/goal-line role) and Kaleb Johnson (depth/stash).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tyler Allgeier:</strong> Draft Allgeier aggressively in double-digit rounds as a potential Week 1 starter with James Conner on IR for at least 4 games and Jeremiyah Love nursing a high ankle sprain.</p></li><li><p>Trey Benson out for the season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Juwan Johnson:</strong> Target Johnson as a starting fantasy TE going in the late rounds; he is established as a primary pass catcher with proven chemistry alongside Tyler Shough.</p></li><li><p>77 catches, 889 yards, 3 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>Ranked TE9 by Harris and TE11-12 by Pianowski vs. market ADP outside top 15-20.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jakobi Meyers:</strong> Acquire Meyers as an undervalued veteran WR in the 130s ADP who commanded primary route-running duties and solid volume after joining Jacksonville.</p></li><li><p>Paced for 79 catches, 920 yards, and nearly 6 TDs across 9 games in Jacksonville.</p></li><li><p>ADP in the 130s overall while Harris ranks him top-100.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Woody Marks:</strong> Stash Marks late for standalone pass-catching value and contingency upside in Houston's offense alongside David Montgomery.</p></li><li><p>261 collegiate receptions over 5 years (including an 83-catch season).</p></li><li><p>Projected for 7-12 weekly touches.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Denzel Boston:</strong> Draft Boston at his cheap 14th/15th-round price tag over higher-drafted teammate Concepcion due to his size (6'4") and red-zone TD equity.</p></li><li><p>Boston ADP 156th overall vs. Concepcion ADP 113th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jordan Love:</strong> Target Love as a high-upside QB2 going at a steep discount, with Green Bay potentially leaning into a higher pass volume amidst backfield uncertainty.</p></li><li><p>Ranked QB16 by Pianowski and QB17 by Harris.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>AD Mitchell:</strong> Roster Mitchell in double-digit rounds as a cheap bench upside stash who offers athletic deep-threat ability for the Jets.</p></li><li><p>Age 24 season.</p></li><li><p>14th-round draft price.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Khalil Shakir:</strong> Draft Shakir in the 140s as a high-floor, reliable WR depth piece tied to Josh Allen in Buffalo.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emmett Johnson:</strong> Target Johnson late as the RB2 behind Kenneth Walker in Kansas City, offering dual running and receiving ability.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tre Tucker:</strong> Roster Tucker late as a potential top wideout for the Raiders who provides big-play TD upside in Clint Kubiak's offense.</p></li><li><p>Projected range of outcomes includes 950 yards and 7-8 TDs.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</h2><p><em>Feel It or F&#8211;It 8.31.26 with Bob Harris and Matt Waldman</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> With Josh Jacobs on the commissioner's exempt list, Marshawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks offer immediate backfield value in Green Bay, while deep fantasy managers should prioritize late-round upside stashes like James Conner over overvalued, slowly recovering backs like Zach Charbonnet.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Marshawn Lloyd is worth drafting as the projected touch leader in Green Bay with Josh Jacobs sidelined, but he will not get a true full workload as Chris Brooks is expected to handle a significant share of touches and pass-protection/third-down work.</p></li><li><p>Chris Brooks could see 33% to 50% of the touches depending on Lloyd's ball security and performance.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>James Conner:</strong> Conner was placed on short-term injured reserve and is not worth drafting to clog a bench spot during peak early-season waiver weeks unless playing in large leagues where holding high-ceiling stashes outweighs streaming active floor players.</p></li><li><p>Conner is going at RB71 in drafts and is on short-term IR (expected out at least 4-5 weeks).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Zach Charbonnet:</strong> Charbonnet is overpriced at ADP RB50 given his late February knee surgery timeline, low incentive to rush back on a contract year, and the availability of backfield depth like Jadarian Price and George Holani.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Emmett Johnson:</strong> With Emari Demercado cut, Emmett Johnson has a clear path to the RB2 role behind Kenneth Walker, making him a high-upside late-round dart throw.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Audible</h2><p><em>3 Fantasy Football Sleepers That You Need To Draft! | On the Couch w/Sigmund Bloom</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalizing on market inefficiencies means looking past previous injury histories for explosive targets like Dalton Kincaid and MarShawn Lloyd, targeting cheap, volume-friendly WRs in high-floor roles like KC Concepcion and Parker Washington, and avoiding overpriced assets in condensed or inefficient offenses like the Arizona and Minnesota.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Concepcion projects as a high-volume target on easy, high-percentage routes in Todd Monken's offense in Cleveland and represents a strong WR4/WR5 target in drafts.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 86 overall by Silva.</p></li><li><p>Draftable in rounds 9-10.</p></li><li><p>90-catch ceiling outcome.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling is a priority mid-to-late round target with a 90-catch range of outcome, worthy of being drafted as a WR4/WR5.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 85 overall by Silva.</p></li><li><p>Taken at 6.02 by Dwayne McFarland.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jared Goff:</strong> Goff is Silva's favorite late-round QB target due to Drew Petzing's pass-heavy dropback rate, a suspect Detroit secondary forcing shootouts, and an extremely favorable indoor/weather schedule.</p></li><li><p>Petzing Cardinals led NFL in pass attempts last year.</p></li><li><p>Lions have few outdoor games before Week 17.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> Do not worry about volume for Williams; he showed comparable second-half target prominence to Amon-Ra St. Brown once Dan Campbell took over play-calling in 2024.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Arizona Offense:</strong> Avoid high-priced Cardinals fantasy assets; the offense faces the league's toughest schedule, is pivoting to a run-heavy approach under Mike LaFleur, and has four players priced in the top 100 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 32nd in SOS by Warren Sharp metrics.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Trey McBride:</strong> Fade McBride at his TE1 market price; rank him behind Brock Bowers and Colston Loveland due to reduced team passing volume and run-focused personnel moves.</p></li><li><p>Ranked TE3 by Silva behind Bowers and Loveland.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Justin Jefferson:</strong> Jefferson carries significant downside at his 1.12 ADP due to Kyler Murray's low career TD volume and the Vikings' shift toward a heavy outside-zone run scheme under Frank Smith.</p></li><li><p>Silva ranks Jefferson 15th overall / WR6.</p></li><li><p>Kyler Murray has never exceeded 26 passing TDs in a season.</p></li><li><p>Jefferson finished as WR30 last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Target Irving as an early-down lead back with rising value, particularly with reports of Sean Tucker potentially being cut and Kenneth Gainwell handling passing downs.</p></li><li><p>Moved from Tier 6 to Tier 5 / RB24 to RB18 in Silva's rankings.</p></li><li><p>Tucker had 9 carries inside the 5-yard line last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> Washington is the single Jaguars player worth targeting at cost after earning the primary receiver role late last season and outlasting coaching regime turnover.</p></li><li><p>Available late near ADP.</p></li><li><p>Sixth-round draft pedigree.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jakobi Meyers:</strong> Avoid drafting Meyers due to a vague thumb injury and quotes suggesting a reduced situational role in Liam Coen's Jacksonville offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Kincaid is one of the premier undervalued TE targets in drafts; fully recovered from a PCL injury, he possesses top-5 TE upside at a TE12-TE15 draft cost.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ray Davis:</strong> Davis is a priority late-round RB5/RB6 bench stash who serves as the direct backup to James Cook with Ty Johnson sidelined by a leg injury.</p></li><li><p>Ty Johnson out 3-4 weeks with leg injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Lloyd is an explosive breakout target who corrected his ACL rehab biomechanics at the Meyer Institute of Sport and could push Josh Jacobs for touches or start if Jacobs is suspended.</p></li><li><p>5'9", 220 lbs.</p></li><li><p>4.4s 40-yard dash.</p></li><li><p>93rd percentile speed score.</p></li><li><p>7.1 YPC at USC.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Coleman is an undervalued round 12-13 bench stash running behind Denver's top-rated offensive line who could claim the feature role if J.K. Dobbins misses time.</p></li><li><p>5'8", 220 lbs.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Audible</h2><p><em>How Will Josh Jacobs Backfield Shakeup Reshape the Packers' Offense &#8212; and Your Fantasy Draft Board</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Josh Jacobs' placement on the exempt list sidelines him for at least the first half of the season (hearing set for November 11), elevating Marshawn Lloyd into an upside RB3 draft pick and Chris Brooks into passing-down work, while potentially increasing passing volume for Jordan Love and the Packers' receivers.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Josh Jacobs should be treated as essentially undraftable or only a very late-round stash, as his November 11 court date and the commissioner's exempt list status mean he is expected to miss at least half the season, if not more.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Marshawn Lloyd moves into the RB3 draft range (around the 5th-6th round turn), offering substantial upside as Green Bay's primary early-down runner despite past injury history.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chris Brooks:</strong> Chris Brooks is positioned to take passing downs and third-down pass protection work in Green Bay, creating an estimated 70/30 touch split favoring Lloyd on early downs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jordan Love:</strong> Without Jacobs, Green Bay could shift to a more pass-heavy attack of 570 to 600 pass attempts, raising the seasonal ceiling for Jordan Love and receivers like Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</h2><p><em>The Players Most Likely to Burn Us This Year</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Beware of paying peak prices on high-profile players experiencing significant coordinator changes, injury baggage, or unproven roles (such as JSN, Kenneth Walker, Jaylen Waddle, Omarion Hampton, and Mike Evans), and prioritize RBs early at the turn in standard 2-WR drafts due to position scarcity.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy: 10th and 12th Turn in PPR:</strong> Starting RB-RB at the turn (picks 10 and 12) is strongly recommended over reaching for slightly higher-ranked WRs, as RB talent thins out rapidly whereas WR depth remains deep throughout drafts (especially in 2-WR starting formats).</p></li><li><p>2-WR vs 3-WR league configurations.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaxon Smith-Njigba &amp; Seattle Offense:</strong> Drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his early ceiling (around pick 6 overall) carries significant downside risk following offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak's departure, a new unproven play-caller (Brian Fleury), and increased target competition.</p></li><li><p>Coming off 1,700 yards and 10 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jadarian Price &amp; George Holani:</strong> Rookie RB Jadarian Price may experience a slow integration into Seattle's backfield, with veteran George Holani likely to see early-season playing time and steal touches.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Drafting Kenneth Walker in the first 2-3 rounds on a new offense carries severe bust risk due to historical inconsistencies, capped snap share (around 55%), and limited red-zone rushing usage.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Jaylen Waddle pairing with head coach Sean Payton carries major boom-or-bust risk and weekly volatility despite his top-tier talent, making him a risky early-round investment.</p></li><li><p>Previous season of 1,000 yards and 4 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Drafting Hampton in the late first or early second round (around pick 15) carries injury and sample-size risk for a Chargers team with injury history, though second-year first-round RBs with strong offensive lines and top QBs remain historically elite archetype bets.</p></li><li><p>Late 1st / early 2nd round ADP (pick 15).</p></li><li><p>~500 yards last season before broken ankle.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Investing in Mike Evans ignores blatant red flags including age, a new offensive system, an active groin strain, and heavy injury risk.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> Despite moving to Buffalo with Josh Allen, DJ Moore's recurring appearance in the 'burn book' (3 of the past 4 years) highlights persistent floor and effort concerns that could disappoint managers at cost.</p></li><li><p>1,000-yard season only once in the last 4 years.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> DeVonta Smith as the primary option in Philadelphia could suffer from target and offensive volatility similar to past top wideouts under this offensive scheme.</p></li><li><p>170 lbs playing weight.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Relying on a 4th-round rookie RB who has yet to play NFL snaps to provide immediate fantasy production is a classic early-season pitfall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rashee Rice:</strong> Drafting Rashee Rice in the 3rd round carries elevated downside considering off-field disruptions and knee rehabilitation.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</h2><p><em>The Ringer Fantasy Football League Live Draft</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> In 3-WR/1-Flex leagues, elite WRs and top-tier TEs drive early structural value, but extreme late-round QB waiting strategies carry catastrophic vulnerability if league mates collude to execute a run on the position.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>WR Draft Priority in 3-WR Leagues:</strong> Starting three WRs plus a flex creates severe positional scarcity (36+ weekly starters in a 12-team league), making early WR accumulation more effective than early RB depth.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Strategy and Flat Scoring Tier:</strong> Securing an elite top-tier TE early provides an advantage because the middle-to-late TE tier flattens completely, with approximately 20 viable options producing near-identical average weekly output (~7-8 points).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kicker Valuation and Draft Capital:</strong> While top kickers can match middle-round skill player raw fantasy point totals, drafting them in single-digit rounds forfeits essential bench depth at RB and WR.</p></li><li><p>Multiple kickers drafted in Round 8.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> Falling to pick seven represents immense historical per-game upside, though soft-tissue and heavy-workload concerns remain valid risks.</p></li><li><p>Drafted at pick 7 in the first round.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late-Round QB Vulnerability:</strong> Waiting excessively on a single QB in a redraft league can backfire if opponents orchestrate an aggressive positional hoarding run, draining starters down to replacement-level options.</p></li><li><p>Over 21 QBs selected before the final starter filled their QB1 slot.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</h2><p><em>The 14 Players I'm Betting My Entire Fantasy Season Against</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafting efficiently requires acknowledging downside pathways and opportunity costs across every round, steering clear of aging backs with touch-regression profiles, crowded backfields, and pass catchers on compromised offenses.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> Avoid or downgrade McCaffrey at pick 1.05 due to underlying efficiency decline, workload reduction plans, and historical 5-7 PPG cliffs seen in backs following 450-touch seasons.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 39th in yards per carry, 31st in success rate, 37th in 10+ yard run rate, 32nd in rate of runs to gain yardage, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt in prior season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Passing on Allen at 2.10 is recommended because taking an early QB surrenders elite onesie advantage at TE or top-tier WR1/RB1 options in 2v2 comparative roster builds, particularly in PPR formats.</p></li><li><p>Aggregate ADP: 10th pick of Round 2 (pick 22 overall).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs carries heightened fragility at pick 34 due to potential suspension risk, degraded offensive line play, and expanded backfield competition from MarShawn Lloyd.</p></li><li><p>Green Bay top O-line unit played together only 18% of the time last season.</p></li><li><p>Ranked second-worst in rush yards over expected among top-50 Yahoo RBs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Quinshon Judkins:</strong> Fade Judkins in Round 4 due to Cleveland's projected low-scoring offense, difficult game scripts (favored in only 2 games), high 8+ defender box rates, and Dylan Sampson taking third-down work.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 14.0 FPG with Flacco vs 9.5 and 11.7 FPG with rookie/backup QBs.</p></li><li><p>Faced 8+ defenders in the box on 45% of carries (highest in NFL).</p></li><li><p>Browns ranked 29th with 2.2 red zone drives per game.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Do not draft Henderson (ADP pick 60) ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP pick 72), as Stevenson remains the clear starter, goal-line back, and primary pass-protection option.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson under a $36 million contract.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Fade Daniels at pick 6.02 in favor of Jalen Hurts (pick 6.05) due to offensive line deterioration following Laremy Tunsil's injury, reduced designed run concepts, and higher scramble hit risks.</p></li><li><p>Commanders projected 15th in points prior to Tunsil injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Harold Fannin:</strong> Avoid Fannin at pick 7.04 because Todd Monken's offense will funnel high-volume underneath targets to WRs like KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, reducing Fannin's 2024 first-read role.</p></li><li><p>Prior season: 43 of 76 receptions caught under 5 yards downfield; 53 of 76 on first-read targets.</p></li><li><p>George Kittle goes ~13 picks after Fannin.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>RJ Harvey:</strong> Fade Harvey in Round 8 with the Broncos deploying a three-way committee featuring J.K. Dobbins as the primary early-down/goal-line back and Jonah Coleman competing for touches.</p></li><li><p>RB36 on RB54 usage with healthy Dobbins last season.</p></li><li><p>Dobbins signed for $10M guaranteed.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Gainwell:</strong> Avoid Gainwell in Round 9 because his 2024 heavy target volume on the Steelers will not translate to Tampa Bay's downfield passing scheme with Baker Mayfield and deep WR talent.</p></li><li><p>Prior season: 73 receptions, career-high 114 rushing attempts, 8 total TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Aaron Jones:</strong> Fade Jones at pick 10.09 in favor of Jordan Mason, given Jones's historical touch drop-off after 150 touches and Minnesota's heavy pass-first tendencies.</p></li><li><p>Career-low 4.2 YPC last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Deebo Samuel:</strong> Avoid Samuel at pick 11.07; he risks losing snaps in 2-WR sets to rookie receiver De'Zhaun Stribling as the season progresses.</p></li><li><p>Samuel signed for $3.8 million guaranteed.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyrone Tracy:</strong> Do not draft Tyrone Tracy in Round 12 as he has fallen behind Cam Skattebo and Najee Harris on the depth chart in a crowded backfield.</p></li><li><p>Depth chart features Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenyon Sadiq:</strong> Avoid Sadiq in Round 13 redraft leagues due to extensive missed training camp time, rotation limitations with Amari Cooper in 3-WR sets, and competition from Mason Taylor.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jerry Jeudy:</strong> Avoid Jeudy in Round 14 redraft formats with rookie targets KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston dominating Cleveland's first-team receiver reps.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>12 Guys We&#8217;d Jump Through A Table For in 2026</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-upside volume and role shifts in the middle and late rounds&#8212;including DeVonta Smith's WR1 elevation in Philadelphia, Jaylen Waddle's increased route volume in Denver, and undervalued lead runners like Saquon Barkley and Chase Brown.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Saquon Barkley:</strong> Draft Barkley in the middle of round one over Christian McCaffrey due to Philadelphia's 3rd-easiest RB schedule and expected offensive line health rebound.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 7th overall by Josh Norris (15th consensus ADP).</p></li><li><p>Eagles projected starters played together on only 42% of snaps last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Draft Henry at the 1-2 turn; his yards after contact increased from 2024 to 2025 and he has a guaranteed double-digit TD baseline in Baltimore's offense.</p></li><li><p>13th overall in Matt Harmon's rankings.</p></li><li><p>16 TDs in 2025 at age 31.</p></li><li><p>Ravens favored in 14 games.</p></li><li><p>Consensus PPR rank is 37th overall despite finishing RB7 in PPR last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Target Chase Brown at the top of the second round due to elite passing-down volume, 74% red-zone snap share, and increased under-center play calling.</p></li><li><p>RB3 in PPG (19.1) over last 10 games with Flacco/Burrow; 23.7 PPG in fantasy playoffs.</p></li><li><p>Bengals favored in 15 games with all 5 offensive line starters returning.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> Draft Parker Washington as a priority target in round 7; he functions as Jacksonville's primary slot target under Liam Coen.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 51st overall by Josh Norris vs 76th Yahoo ADP.</p></li><li><p>31% target share and 3.17 yards per route run when on field with Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr.</p></li><li><p>82% success rate vs zone coverage from Week 15 onward.</p></li><li><p>90+ yards and/or a TD in 5 of final 7 games last year (WR19 PPG over final 9 weeks).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> Target Lawrence in round 8 as a top-tier fantasy QB value rather than trying to guess Jacksonville's weekly target distribution.</p></li><li><p>Over 350 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>Top-5 fantasy QB in 4 of his last 5 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> Aggressively draft DeVonta Smith as a WR1 candidate with A.J. Brown gone from Philadelphia's offense.</p></li><li><p>32.9% target share and 10 targets per game in contests without A.J. Brown since 2022.</p></li><li><p>29% target rate per route and 2.6 YPRR on 252 routes without Brown.</p></li><li><p>84th percentile success rate vs press and 90th percentile vs zone.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Draft rookie Jadarian Price ahead of typical split-backfield veterans as Seattle's primary early-down runner while Zach Charbonnet works back from knee surgery.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 58th overall by Matt Harmon.</p></li><li><p>Faces Arizona and Washington in Weeks 2 and 3.</p></li><li><p>Charbonnet had major knee surgery in February.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Etienne Jr.:</strong> Target Etienne in the 4th round as an undervalued RB2 with top-12 RB volume and upside with Alvin Kamara sidelined.</p></li><li><p>RB10 in points per game last season.</p></li><li><p>Over 1,300 scrimmage yards in 3 of 4 career seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Draft Waddle in the 4th round; moving into Sean Payton's Denver offense projects a massive spike in route volume and play-action looks.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 11th in successful targets per route run and 12th in YPRR last season.</p></li><li><p>Denver ranked 5th in offensive plays (Courtland Sutton ran 664 routes vs Waddle's 442 in Miami, which ranked 31st).</p></li><li><p>Over 4.0 yards per route run on play-action; ranked 8th in first downs per route run.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Draft Kincaid around TE10 for high-ceiling breakout potential if Buffalo increases dropback rate under Joe Brady.</p></li><li><p>Top-5 TE in PPG prior to injury last season.</p></li><li><p>Played under 38% of snaps after returning from injury.</p></li><li><p>Bills ranked 31st, 25th, and 30th in dropback rate under Joe Brady.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Draft second-year WR Matthew Golden at ADP 123+ as an underpriced starting X-receiver in Green Bay's top-8 scoring offense.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 90th overall by Josh Norris (123rd consensus / 126th Yahoo ADP).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rome Odunze:</strong> Target Odunze in year two of Ben Johnson's Bears passing offense after displaying high efficiency as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>11th in fantasy PPG over the first 8 weeks last season; top-19 in yards per route run.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Fernando Mendoza:</strong> Expect rookie Mendoza to sit behind Kirk Cousins early, with Week 8 at New Orleans as a logical target date for him to take over.</p></li><li><p>Falcons play Kansas City between Weeks 4-7 before Week 8 matchup at New Orleans.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bryce Young:</strong> Temper expectations for Bryce Young in year three; his 2025 season likely represents his realistic NFL production ceiling.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>BONUS POD: Fantasy Q&amp;A Live from Buffalo</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Punting QB in 1-QB redraft formats provides massive roster value this season, while debate remains high on post-hype veteran WRs and second-year players with shifting target volume.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Dalton Kincaid is a worthwhile selection near his ADP (overall pick 96 / TE11) due to leading all TEs in targets per route run over the last two years, though his weekly ceiling may be capped around TE6-TE7 due to snap and route volume limits.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 11.3 half-PPR PPG in first 5 weeks last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>QB Draft Strategy:</strong> Stacking is unnecessary when punting QB in 1-QB redraft leagues; instead, draft two late-round upside targets (like Malik Willis or Jordan Love) outside the top 120 picks or rely on the early waiver wire.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> DJ Moore offers significant value above ADP in Buffalo's offense; Matt Harmon ranks him 45th overall versus a Yahoo ADP of 56th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Garrett Wilson is primed for a high-volume target share as a featured weapon alongside Breece Hall, outperforming his current 49th overall draft position.</p></li><li><p>35% target share in games with Justin Fields last year.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 37th overall by Josh vs 49th overall ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Managers holding an injured Ashton Jeanty should avoid selling at a discount before Week 1, as his workload may drop from 86% touch dominance to a 65-35 or 70-30 split with Mike Washington, but his short-yardage and grinding role remains secure.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Drafting Josh Allen at his Yahoo 2.08 ADP carries severe roster opportunity cost in 1-QB leagues compared to building out elite receiver/TE combinations and taking late-round passers.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> Despite age-30 workload drop-off concerns that affected past high-touch backs, Christian McCaffrey at pick 3 overall remains justified due to league-winning ceiling when healthy.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>14-Team League Roster Construction:</strong> In 14-team PPR formats, utilize WRs in the flex spot, accept a deliberate weakness at RB2 that can be addressed via pass-catchers and waiver wire backups, and wait on QB.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Rome Odunze vs. Luther Burden:</strong> Luther Burden holds top-10 WR upside and is preferred over Rome Odunze, with analysts ranking Burden around WR19-WR23 and Odunze in the WR22-WR30 range.</p></li><li><p>Odunze ranked WR27 by Josh and ~WR30 by Boone.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tetairoa McMillan:</strong> Tetairoa McMillan saw his preseason slot rate rise to 40% (up from 15% last season), raising his floor, but his overall ceiling remains dependent on Bryce Young's passing efficiency and offensive volume.</p></li><li><p>Reported weight gain of 12-15 pounds.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.28.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[11 episodes, 10 hours + 32 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82826</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82826</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 29 Aug 2026 03:00:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 11 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82826-full-notes">LINK</a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Today's Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#9878;&#65039; <strong>Jacobs in legal trouble</strong>: Josh Jacobs faces two misdemeanor charges with a Nov 17 court date, creating suspension risk and pushing backup MarShawn Lloyd up draft boards (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#128657; <strong>Jeanty injury</strong>: Ashton Jeanty suffered an Aug 23 ankle injury with potential short-term IR risk, making him a risky pick in the top 3 rounds (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#128200; <strong>RBs regain early value</strong>: Early draft capital on RBs has stabilized across rounds 1 through 5, making back-half first-round picks an ideal anchor-running-back foundation (<em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#127939; Josh Jacobs (RB, GB)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Legal uncertainty pushes Jacobs into a discounted fifth-round draft window with high-end RB1 upside.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Jacobs averaged over 19 PPR points per game before injury last season and finished as the overall RB6 two seasons ago (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li><li><p>A looming November 17 court date and age-28 historical cliff rates create elevated suspension and efficiency risks (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128640; Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>A trade to Denver upgrades Waddle's target volume and vertical ceiling.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Denver ranked fourth in pass attempts last season, and coaches are deploying Waddle on vertical routes from the slot (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li><li><p>His WR21 draft price requires immediate volume dominance over Courtland Sutton in a newly configured passing attack (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; Brock Bowers (TE, LV)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Bowers offers elite target dominance and positional separation in the second round.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He projects for a 25.5% to 27% baseline target share after recording the second-most PPR points per game by a rookie TE in NFL history (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p>Poor QB play and an offense that ranked 28th in scoring threaten his weekly TD ceiling (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128668; David Montgomery (RB, HOU)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Montgomery steps into high-value goal-line work on a high-scoring Texans offense at a bargain mid-round cost.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Houston converted just 17% of inside-the-five carries last year, giving Montgomery a projected 65% touch share with heavy TD upside (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p>His fifth-round draft capital assumes clean goal-line dominance without ceding passing-down snaps to rookie Woody Marks (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#9889; Kyler Murray (QB, MIN)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Murray is an elite late-round QB target with top-five upside in Kevin O'Connell's offense.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Murray carries a 55% career top-12 weekly finish rate and gains designed rushing concepts alongside Justin Jefferson (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li><li><p>Operating on a one-year contract while adjusting to new footwork timing creates a brief early-season performance floor risk (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#9889; The Ladd McConkey Valuation Gap</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Analysts disagree on whether Mike McDaniel's scheme elevates McConkey into a target monster or shrinks his weekly route participation.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> McDaniel's heavy use of motion concentrates targets, where McConkey produced 2.52 yards per route run in condensed formations (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Increased two-tight-end and fullback sets will reduce overall receiver routes, making his third-round WR16 price tag too expensive (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128737;&#65039; Nico Collins: Elite Anchor or Fragile WR1?</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Experts clash over whether Collins is a proven top-10 alpha receiver or a high-priced bust candidate.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Collins ranks seventh among WRs in points per game over the past three seasons and possesses a proven top-five ceiling (<em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Collins has landed on injured reserve in three of five seasons and faces pass-protection concerns behind an injured offensive line (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.28.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[11 episodes, 10 hours + 32 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82826-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82826-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 29 Aug 2026 02:50:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>11 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>10 hours and 32 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>AFC West Preview | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-28-26</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>The Biggest Fantasy Football Busts at Every Position | Fantasy Focus</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>12 Fantasy Football SLEEPERS For EVERY Type Of League in 2026!</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>Preseason Love/Hate (WRs + TEs)</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>FFT Express - Dave Richard's 2026 All-Bust Team! 8 Fantasy Football Players to AVOID! (08/26 Fantasy Football Advice)</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Josh Jacobs Latest + 0.5 PPR LIVE Fantasy Football Mock Draft | 10-Team Strategy &amp; Picks 2026 (08/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Fantasy Time Machine + Jacobs in Jeopardy? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/28</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>More Super-Deep Sleepers &amp; Warp Zone Players For 2026</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>1119: Mailbag - Chicago's Pass-Catchers, Going Against ADP, and More</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</strong>: <em>The 2026 All Boring Team</em> (August 28)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>Our NFL Insider answers the biggest fantasy questions</em> (August 28)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>AFC West Preview | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-28-26</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-upside situation changes like Jaylen Waddle, Kenneth Walker, and Justin Herbert while exercising caution on players carrying elevated risk or inflated prices, including Ashton Jeanty (ankle injury), Omarion Hampton, and Ladd McConkey.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Waddle projects for WR1 upside in Denver after the Broncos traded a first-round pick for him; Denver ranked fourth in pass attempts last season compared to Miami's 30th.</p></li><li><p>WR18 Draft Sharks PPR rank.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Nix offers strong fantasy value at QB15 after finishing QB12 as a rookie, leading the NFL in pass attempts and ranking sixth among QBs in rushing attempts.</p></li><li><p>6th in QB rush attempts.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>J.K. Dobbins:</strong> Dobbins represents solid value at RB35 ADP after securing an $8M/year contract, though lack of passing-game involvement caps redraft weekly ceiling.</p></li><li><p>RB24 in PPR PPG before foot injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Coleman is generating strong camp buzz and is the direct handcuff to Dobbins over R.J. Harvey, making him a high-upside late-round sleeper and stash candidate.</p></li><li><p>Round 4 NFL draft pick.</p></li><li><p>14 spots ahead of Mike Washington.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>R.J. Harvey:</strong> Harvey is overpriced at RB32 ADP as an inefficient runner who relied heavily on TDs and is likely locked into a limited change-of-pace role.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Pat Bryant:</strong> Bryant is working out of the slot as the WR3 and is an attractive late-round stash with contingent upside if Waddle or Sutton misses time.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Walker is set up for a featured, high-volume role in Kansas City with Andy Reid utilizing more under-center formations and designed screens.</p></li><li><p>Early Round 2 ADP.</p></li><li><p>4.8 YPC under center vs 4.1 from shotgun in 2024.</p></li><li><p>Andy Reid produced 15 top-12 RBs in first 20 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Patrick Mahomes:</strong> Mahomes is an unappealing fantasy target at QB11&#8211;13 ADP due to reduced rushing expectations coming off knee rehab and a mediocre pass-catching corps.</p></li><li><p>10th in completion rate, 12th in YPA, 12th in TD rate over past 4 seasons without Tyreek Hill.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Cyrus Allen:</strong> Allen has worked heavily with the first-team offense and Mahomes in camp, making him an upside flyer at WR71 ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Emmett Johnson:</strong> Johnson is establishing himself as the clear RB2/handcuff behind Walker after forcing 7 missed tackles on 12 carries in the preseason opener.</p></li><li><p>4.3 yards after contact per attempt in preseason opener.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Drafters should heavily discount Jeanty following an August 23 ankle injury with potential short-term IR implications; avoid drafting him in Round 2.</p></li><li><p>Projected for 15 games and RB9 PPR in Draft Sharks rankings.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Washington has standout handcuff and standalone streaming value in rounds 9&#8211;10 given Jeanty's injury uncertainty and lack of backfield competition.</p></li><li><p>Draft Sharks rank RB48.</p></li><li><p>Round 14 ADP climbing to Rounds 8-10.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Bowers justifies a late Round 2 draft cost based on elite athletic profile and projected target dominance (25.5% to 27% baseline target share).</p></li><li><p>21st overall consensus ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Michael Mayer:</strong> Mayer represents a rare valuable TE handcuff to stash in deep leagues if drafting Bowers due to projected heavy two-TE usage under Clint Kubiak.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tre Tucker:</strong> Tucker projects as Las Vegas's WR1 and can be deployed as a WR4/flex option in 14-team leagues due to deep-threat big-play upside.</p></li><li><p>18% target share over second half of last season without Jakobi Meyers.</p></li><li><p>WR42 in expected PPR points per game during that stretch.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Oronde Gadsden:</strong> Gadsden is an avoid in redraft lineup-setting leagues due to TE committee deployment and low historical TE target rates in Mike McDaniel schemes.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> McConkey is overpriced at WR16 in Round 3 due to expected decline in overall WR routes from multi-TE and fullback sets under Mike McDaniel.</p></li><li><p>WR24 Draft Sharks ranking.</p></li><li><p>44th in targets per route, 52nd in yards per route, 46th in PFF grade in 2024 among 76 qualifying WRs.</p></li><li><p>Tied for 27th in expected PPR PPG in 2024.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton at RB10 carries significant risk in early Round 2 because of potential pass-down and change-of-pace touch erosion to Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Keaton Mitchell:</strong> Mitchell is a high-upside bench target who could carve out 10&#8211;12 touches per game in Mike McDaniel's space-oriented offense.</p></li><li><p>$7M per year multi-year contract.</p></li><li><p>Base projection of 6.5 to 7 touches per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> Herbert has top-5 QB upside at QB9&#8211;10 ADP benefiting from Mike McDaniel's play-calling efficiency and a healthy offensive tackle duo.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Quentin Johnston:</strong> Johnston offers better ADP value than McConkey as a post-catch playmaker whose skillset aligns with Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tre Harris:</strong> Harris is an ideal late-round stash at WR who can provide immediate upside if injuries open up playing time in Los Angeles.</p></li><li><p>Targetable in Round 18 / late rounds.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>The Biggest Fantasy Football Busts at Every Position | Fantasy Focus</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafting high-end players at their absolute ceiling leaves fantasy managers vulnerable to significant bust risk when efficiency regressions, target competition, or schematic changes occur.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Caleb Williams is being drafted at his ceiling in a deep QB tier despite poor passing efficiency (58% completion rate, 32nd in NFL) and four 'stiff weeks' last season; better values exist rounds later.</p></li><li><p>QB5 in total points last season.</p></li><li><p>QB7 in points per game.</p></li><li><p>4 stiff weeks in 17 games.</p></li><li><p>Field's QB15 rank vs. consensus top 10.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Daniels carries elevated bust risk due to rushing regression from his rookie season, injury history, a low-ranked offensive line, and left tackle Laremy Tunsil missing significant time.</p></li><li><p>20.9 PPG in 2024 down to 16.3 PPG last season.</p></li><li><p>Rushing pace dropped to 675 yards from 891 rookie rushing yards.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> Hurts faces bust potential as Philadelphia shifts to a timing/rhythm offense under Sean Mannion, combined with multi-year declines in fantasy PPG, rushing efficiency, and sub-63% Tush Push success.</p></li><li><p>PPG dropped from 25.0 (4 years ago) to 21.5 to 18.7 last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton's ceiling is capped due to poor rush gain rate, offensive line injuries (Tyler Biadasz out for year), and the presence of Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal in a multi-back rotation.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 46th of 49 qualified RBs in percentage of carries gaining positive yards.</p></li><li><p>3.7 YPC when removing single 100+ yard game vs. Giants (4.4 overall).</p></li><li><p>32 catches on 35 targets but only 5.5 yards per target.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs is a third-round bust candidate due to recent off-field legal issues, declining late-season usage (groin injury), and historical age-28 RB cliff rates, making MarShawn Lloyd an attractive priority target.</p></li><li><p>11.3 fantasy PPG down the stretch last season.</p></li><li><p>Age 28 (only 12 instances in 5 years of age-28+ RBs finishing top-15, a 16% hit rate).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Quinshon Judkins:</strong> Judkins has a low TD ceiling and minimal weekly upside playing in a struggling Browns offense with Dylan Sampson threatening pass-catching third-down work when trailing.</p></li><li><p>Faced the heaviest defensive boxes in the NFL among qualified RBs.</p></li><li><p>Had over 70% of team carries and 2.5 targets per game.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in 4th/5th round of 12-team leagues.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonathan Taylor:</strong> Taylor remains one of the safest late-first-round picks due to heavy volume and elite goal-line usage, despite splits that saw his production drop from 24.8 PPG with Daniel Jones to 12.9 PPG without him.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL in carries and rushing TDs.</p></li><li><p>2nd in carries inside the 5-yard line.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Amon-Ra St. Brown:</strong> St. Brown represents the safest first-round WR pick with historically elite reception, yardage, and TD consistency.</p></li><li><p>Only WR with 3 consecutive seasons of 115+ receptions, 1,250+ receiving yards, and 10+ TDs.</p></li><li><p>Only WR in NFL history with 90+ catches in each of his first 5 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Wilson carries elevated volatility and bust potential at his WR13 ADP due to inconsistent boom/bust production and skepticism about Geno Smith leading the Jets offense.</p></li><li><p>4 career games with 25+ fantasy points vs. 23 games under 10 fantasy points.</p></li><li><p>9 weeks finishing as a top-15 WR vs. 17 weeks finishing outside the top 30.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Nico Collins:</strong> Collins carries major bust risk as a WR1 pick due to substantial injury history (IR stints in 3 of 5 seasons), pass protection concerns for C.J. Stroud, and inconsistent week-to-week catch floors.</p></li><li><p>Finished last season with 6 games of 5 or fewer receptions.</p></li><li><p>7 weeks outside top-25 WRs last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tetairoa McMillan:</strong> McMillan lacks an elite ceiling and possesses a fragile floor due to Bryce Young's low passing efficiency and lack of supporting high-end fantasy WR production.</p></li><li><p>Finished WR16 in total points, WR22 in PPG, with only 1 top-10 week as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>Caught only 56% of targets.</p></li><li><p>Bryce Young averaged 6.3 YPA in consecutive seasons and supported only 2 top-50 fantasy WRs in 3 years.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Sam LaPorta:</strong> LaPorta is an early-round TE bust candidate due to entering the season managing back and hip injuries, fierce target competition in Detroit, and near-zero high-value red-zone usage last year.</p></li><li><p>Only 1 end zone target in 10 games played last season.</p></li><li><p>2 career 100-yard receiving games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> Kraft is overvalued in the 6th round coming off an ACL tear; his past fantasy production was heavily inflated by outlier TD efficiency and soft defensive matchups rather than sustainable target volume.</p></li><li><p>Scored 6 TDs on 1.8 expected TDs and just 2 end zone targets.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 4.1 to 4.2 targets/game outside of two 10-target spike games when Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks missed time.</p></li><li><p>All 4 games with 12+ fantasy points came against the top-5 most generous defenses vs. TEs (Bengals, Cardinals, Steelers, Commanders).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Trey McBride:</strong> McBride is a draft-cost bust candidate in the late-second/early-third round (pick 21 overall); fantasy managers gain superior roster construction value by drafting RB/WR in that range and waiting on TE.</p></li><li><p>ADP at pick 21 overall (early round 3 / mid round 2).</p></li><li><p>12.5 PPG with Kyler Murray vs. 21.1 PPG with Jacoby Brissett.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty is at risk of falling short of expectations due to an unproven offensive line, a shared backfield rotation with Mike Washington Jr., and the Raiders facing the league's toughest projected RB schedule.</p></li><li><p>Raiders projected to have the #1 most difficult strength of schedule for RBs in Mike Clay's projections.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>12 Fantasy Football SLEEPERS For EVERY Type Of League in 2026!</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft for ceiling over floor in the middle-to-late rounds; elite coaching schemes and extreme analytics profiles offer outsized upside relative to depressed draft costs.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathan Brooks:</strong> Brooks offers elite value at ADP (RB30&#8211;RB40 across Sleeper, Yahoo, ESPN) as the explosive three-down back in Dave Canales' system, with starter Chuba Hubbard injured and ineffective.</p></li><li><p>Drafted round 2.</p></li><li><p>Going in rounds 9-10.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> Downs offers WR1 upside at WR46&#8211;WR48 ADP because of his elite target-earning metrics on higher snap shares, making him worth drafting despite the veteran presence of Keenan Allen.</p></li><li><p>Top-12 in targets per route run over last two seasons.</p></li><li><p>0.31 TPRR with Michael Pittman off the field.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 8.6 targets and 15.6 fantasy PPG in games with &gt;66% snap share.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling has massive upside in Kyle Shanahan's offense given his blocking ability to earn immediate snaps, injury to Mike Evans/Ricky Pearsall, and historical rookie preseason target volume.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on 4 of first 5 preseason plays.</p></li><li><p>5 targets on 7 routes in preseason game.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Concepcion projects into a high-floor manufactured-touch screen role in Todd Monken's offense similar to Zay Flowers, giving him priority over other rookie wideouts.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Ferguson is a high-upside late-round TE dart throw who could function as the Rams' WR3 in Sean McVay's scheme with contingent upside if Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua miss time.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as Scott's TE15.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jacory Croskey-Merritt:</strong> JCM is an explosive outside-zone runner available at RB33&#8211;RB38 cost, though an atrocious offensive line and passing-down limitations via Brian Robinson/Rachaad White cap his ceiling.</p></li><li><p>Led league in YPC on outside zone runs in limited sample.</p></li><li><p>ADP RB36 on Sleeper, RB33 elsewhere.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Caleb Douglas:</strong> Douglas possesses true WR1 alpha traits and size-speed athleticism to earn early-down outside targets in Miami over low-aDOT gadget receiver Malik Washington.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Coleman boasts elite tackle-breaking and receiving efficiency analytics, giving him standalone upside in Denver's backfield ahead of a struggling RJ Harvey and injury-prone J.K. Dobbins.</p></li><li><p>&gt;93rd percentile in missed tackles forced, yards after contact per attempt, and yards after catch per reception.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tank Dell:</strong> Dell offers league-winning WR separation upside at late-round cost following Jayden Higgins' injury, though multiple injury concerns and practice restrictions persist.</p></li><li><p>47 catches, 709 yards, 7 TDs as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Cyrus Allen:</strong> Allen could emerge as Patrick Mahomes' primary perimeter separator and man-coverage beater in Kansas City with Rashee Rice inefficient and playing primarily around the line of scrimmage.</p></li><li><p>Chiefs pass EPA/dropback drops by 1.269 with Rashee Rice on the field since 2023 Super Bowl.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Rodriguez:</strong> Rodriguez has proven top-tier rushing efficiency and college familiarity with Liam Coen, but a pure two-down/goal-line role without target upside limits his fantasy ceiling to non-PPR formats.</p></li><li><p>1st in yards after contact per attempt, 2nd in success rate among qualifying RBs.</p></li><li><p>Averages only 7 receptions per season since high school.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>Preseason Love/Hate (WRs + TEs)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-upside WRs and TEs in consolidated passing attacks (such as DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, Colston Loveland, and Tucker Kraft) while avoiding aging, low-aDOT, or touchdown-dependent pass catchers going at inflated ADPs (including Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, and Jake Ferguson).</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> Target DeVonta Smith as a top-10 WR; with A.J. Brown gone and former QB Sean Mannion calling plays, Philadelphia will pass heavily, locking in Smith as the high-volume alpha.</p></li><li><p>Averages 18.3 fantasy PPG in games with 7+ targets over the last two seasons.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on 30% of routes when A.J. Brown was off the field.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: 24 overall (WR top 10), ADP: 33-34.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>A.J. Brown:</strong> Draft A.J. Brown ahead of ADP due to an ideal downfield pairing with Drake Maye and reunited head coach Mike Vrabel in New England.</p></li><li><p>Drake Maye led the NFL in passer rating on 15+ air-yard passes and was top two in deep TD passes.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: WR8 / 19 overall, ADP: ~22.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> Draft Chris Olave as a WR1 candidate; his massive contract reflects team confidence in his health, and he dominated target volume with Tyler Shough.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 18.8 fantasy PPG, 6 receptions, 82+ yards per game, and ~29% target share with Tyler Shough starting.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: WR11 / 25 overall, ADP: 29-30.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Rely on Zay Flowers as an elite-floor WR2 with potential WR1 upside if TD luck improves in Baltimore's thin WR room.</p></li><li><p>29% target share last year; only Ravens WR above 12%.</p></li><li><p>3rd among qualified WRs in yards per route run last season.</p></li><li><p>One of 9 WRs with 200+ PPR points in each of the last three seasons.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: 32 overall, ADP: 37-38.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> Draft Ladd McConkey above market as the clear primary target in Mike McDaniel's Chargers offense.</p></li><li><p>Top 5 in NFL in slot targets last year despite Keenan Allen earning 122 targets.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: 36 overall, ADP: 42.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Prioritize Colston Loveland as an elite fantasy TE who will command top-tier target volume in Ben Johnson's Chicago offense.</p></li><li><p>Earned a 90 utilization score over final 10 games last season.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 20+ fantasy PPG in games with &gt;=20% target share; 99 yards per game with 7+ targets.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: TE3 / 33 overall, ADP: ~41.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> Target Tucker Kraft as an ascending high-efficiency TE in a concentrated Green Bay passing offense.</p></li><li><p>2.3 career fantasy points per target (second only to George Kittle since 2023).</p></li><li><p>Overall TE1 in PPG over Weeks 1-8 last year prior to ACL tear.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: TE5.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Courtland Sutton:</strong> Fade Courtland Sutton at ADP due to extreme TD dependency, advancing age, and Jaylen Waddle taking over as Denver's top receiver.</p></li><li><p>Ranks 54th among WRs in targets per route run since 2021.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: WR47 / 105 overall, ADP: 83.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DK Metcalf:</strong> Avoid DK Metcalf at current ADP because Aaron Rodgers' low average depth of target severely limits Metcalf's downfield ceiling.</p></li><li><p>Aaron Rodgers ranked dead last among qualified QBs in average depth of target last season.</p></li><li><p>Metcalf averaged only 1.6 targets per game on passes of 15+ air yards; ranked 32nd in red zone target share.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: 89 overall, ADP: 80.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Davante Adams:</strong> Treat Davante Adams as a WR3 rather than a WR2 due to inevitable TD regression and competition from younger pass catchers in Los Angeles.</p></li><li><p>Averaged under 60 receiving yards per game last year.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: WR25 / WR3 tier.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jake Ferguson:</strong> Fade Jake Ferguson at draft cost due to shallow route depth and expanded target competition in Dallas.</p></li><li><p>Only four games with &gt;50 receiving yards last year and aDOT under 5 yards (28th among TEs).</p></li><li><p>Never exceeded a 17% season target share.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank: 134 overall, ADP: 117.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs &amp; MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Lower Josh Jacobs on draft boards due to elevated risk and reach for MarShawn Lloyd in middle rounds where committee/backup RBs are selected.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>the Chargers TEs:</strong> Avoid drafting Oronde Gadsden II, David Njoku, and Charlie Kolar, as heavy 12 personnel usage will cause them to cannibalize each other's weekly fantasy value.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>FFT Express - Dave Richard's 2026 All-Bust Team! 8 Fantasy Football Players to AVOID! (08/26 Fantasy Football Advice)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Several high-profile players are being drafted at their ceiling despite backfield committees, offensive scheme shifts, or limited volume upside, warranting fade or discount targeting in drafts.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Packers GM Brian Gutekunst noted the team is preparing for a potential suspension for Josh Jacobs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Avoid drafting Dart at his sub-100 overall ADP; the Giants' run-heavy offense and coaching staff discouraging him from running lowers his fantasy rushing ceiling to an 11th-round valuation.</p></li><li><p>ADP: pick 95 (5 picks before 100).</p></li><li><p>NFFC 5-day ADP: 129th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey carries elevated risk at his top-six overall ADP due to entering his age-30 season following a 450-touch workload and dealing with undisclosed tightness during training camp.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Breece Hall:</strong> Hall is overpriced in Round 3 with Braelon Allen taking goal-line work and Isaiah Davis factoring into passing downs on an historically low-scoring Jets offense; target him in late Round 4 instead.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 17.4 touches and 13.0 PPR PPG last season.</p></li><li><p>Jets finished bottom-5 in points scored in 6 of the last 7 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo:</strong> Do not draft Skattebo in the top 40 because he is splitting first-team work with Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary, and Najee Harris while recovering from injury; rank him in late Round 5 as RB22.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as RB22 (ahead of Price RB23, Montgomery RB24, Bhayshul Tuten RB25).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Fade Tate in early Round 7 due to severe concerns with the Titans' offensive line and QB Cam Ward; value him closer to Round 9.</p></li><li><p>ADP: Early Round 7 (fallen from Round 6).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Wan'Dale Robinson:</strong> Robinson is a solid PPR target due to a secure, high-floor role in Brian Daboll's offense projected for over seven targets per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DK Metcalf:</strong> Metcalf is overpriced in Round 7 due to Steelers additions of Michael Pittman, Germie Bernard, and Roman Wilson providing short-target options for Aaron Rodgers; Metcalf is better valued in late Round 8 or around pick 100.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyle Pitts:</strong> Fade Pitts as TE7; with Michael Penix throwing downfield rather than checking down and Drake London healthy, Pitts should be ranked as TE9.</p></li><li><p>Consensus ADP: TE7.</p></li><li><p>Dave's rank: TE9.</p></li><li><p>Without London: 19.0 PPR PPG in 5 games.</p></li><li><p>With London: 9.6 PPR PPG, 5.2 non-PPR PPG, 6.2 targets/gm in 12 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Avoid Henderson at his Round 5 ADP (59th overall); Rhamondre Stevenson is dominating training camp buzz and high-leverage passing/red zone work, making Henderson viable only around pick 79 in Round 7.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Josh Jacobs Latest + 0.5 PPR LIVE Fantasy Football Mock Draft | 10-Team Strategy &amp; Picks 2026 (08/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Josh Jacobs' legal uncertainty pushes his draft value to late Round 5 or Round 6, making MarShawn Lloyd a priority target in Rounds 7&#8211;8, while shallow 10-team leagues reward either securing elite onesie positions or waiting on value RBs.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Facing two misdemeanor charges with potential suspension risk if video evidence surfaces, Jacobs has fallen from early rounds to late Round 5 or Round 6, offering high upside if the legal process delays discipline until 2026.</p></li><li><p>Averaged over 19 PPR points per game before injury last season.</p></li><li><p>Finished as RB6 two seasons ago.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Lloyd is rising into the Round 7&#8211;8 range (around pick 80&#8211;88) as a high-upside hedge or standalone target; however, if Jacobs receives a significant suspension, Green Bay may add a veteran RB rather than rely solely on Lloyd.</p></li><li><p>Drafted at pick 80 (7.11) and pick 92 in recent drafts.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late-Round Workload RBs:</strong> Disregard conservative default ADPs for Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, as all three regularly come off the board between picks 75 and 95 across competitive drafts.</p></li><li><p>Jordan Mason drafted between 77th and 85th in 6 of 8 FFT Open leagues.</p></li><li><p>J.K. Dobbins drafted between 74th and 96th.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Aaron Jones:</strong> Aaron Jones represents a major value falling to Round 11&#8211;12 compared to Jordan Mason going in Round 7, as Jones retains pass-catching dominance and significant backfield share in Minnesota.</p></li><li><p>5-round ADP discrepancy between Mason (Round 7) and Jones (Round 11/12).</p></li><li><p>Jones projected for 60/40 touch split with passing work.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> In 10-team leagues where managers wait on QB, Justin Herbert provides extreme late-round value falling to Round 13 (pick 129).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Despite questionable Raiders QB play and low team scoring projections, Bowers possesses unmatched target share upside at TE with potential to lead the position in targets and yards.</p></li><li><p>Drafted 15th overall (Round 2).</p></li><li><p>Raiders ranked 28th in scoring during Bowers' rookie year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Blake Corum:</strong> Corum serves as an elite contingent upside handcuff who already splits goal-line touches with Kyren Williams and would step into an immediate featured workload if Williams misses time.</p></li><li><p>Equal goal-line carries to Kyren Williams from mid-season on.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Fantasy Time Machine + Jacobs in Jeopardy? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/28</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Navigating modern fantasy drafts requires exploiting late-round inefficiencies and situational changes, such as post-charge discount windows on players like Josh Jacobs and target-earning sleepers buried on depth charts.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs faces two misdemeanor charges with a court appearance scheduled for November 17th. Barring a public video leak prompting commissioner's exempt list action, any suspension is unlikely to impact the current season, though draft risk remains elevated.</p></li><li><p>6 games standard CBA domestic abuse felony suspension benchmark.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Green Bay Backfield Insurance:</strong> With Josh Jacobs facing uncertainty, Marshawn Lloyd serves as the primary redraft handcuff.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Montgomery profiles as an undervalued early/goal-line back on a high-powered Houston offense favored in six of their first seven games, addressing their league-worst 17% conversion rate inside the 5-yard line.</p></li><li><p>ADP 6.11.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Price has a clear runway for full-workload bell-cow duties in Seattle's offense following Kenneth Walker's departure and is seeing encouraging passing-down involvement in training camp.</p></li><li><p>ADP 5.11 / RB25.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Tuten offers top-12 RB upside outside the top-24 draft board due to high efficiency metrics and goal-line effectiveness in Liam Coen's Jacksonville offense.</p></li><li><p>ADP 6.01 / RB26.</p></li><li><p>5 of 7 carries inside the 5 converted to TDs.</p></li><li><p>5th in rush success rate among 55 qualifiers.</p></li><li><p>Tied 11th in forced missed tackle rate.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kyler Murray:</strong> Drafted as QB17 in round 13, Murray represents elite late-round upside now fully recovered from his ACL injury and paired with Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson in Minnesota.</p></li><li><p>55% top-12 QB performance rate in 82 career starts.</p></li><li><p>35 rushing YPG in 5 healthy games last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tyler Shough:</strong> Shough has second-half breakout potential as a late-round or streaming QB in Kellen Moore's fast-paced Saints offense following a strong finish to his rookie year.</p></li><li><p>QB22 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Weeks 14-18: 70% completion rate, 27 rush YPG, 20 fantasy PPG.</p></li><li><p>2nd in completion rate, 4th in passing YPG, 6th in YPA among qualifying rookie QBs over 5 years.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Baker Mayfield:</strong> Mayfield remains undervalued despite strong rushing floor and early-season QB4 production in previous years, opening with a high-total Week 1 game against Cincinnati.</p></li><li><p>382 rushing yards last season.</p></li><li><p>QB4 through first 6 weeks last year.</p></li><li><p>51.5 over/under Week 1 at Cincinnati.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jalen Coker:</strong> Coker is a virtually free late-round target who locked in a three-year extension after posting strong closing stretch numbers and dominating target share in Carolina's offense.</p></li><li><p>4 top-24 finishes in final 7 games.</p></li><li><p>12 targets, 9 rec, 134 yds, 1 TD in playoff game.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dontayvion Wicks:</strong> Wicks has secured Philadelphia's WR2 role opposite DeVonta Smith with AJ Brown gone, backed by elite historical target-per-route-run rates.</p></li><li><p>WR73 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Target per route run: 23% in 2023, 30% in 2024, 21% in 2025.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>More Super-Deep Sleepers &amp; Warp Zone Players For 2026</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Late-round draft value can be maximized by waiting on QB and TE (targeting Jared Goff and Juwan Johnson) while seizing mispriced WRs and RBs like Jameson Williams, Romeo Doubs, and David Montgomery.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Facing misdemeanor charges stemming from a home incident; while suspension risk remains, he is worth drafting at a discount in the late third round if no immediate discipline occurs.</p></li><li><p>Late 3rd round valuation.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Showed alpha traits in joint practices against Chicago; with his ADP dropping near pick 80, he represents strong value to draft around the sixth round.</p></li><li><p>Targeted in Round 6.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Battling a groin injury ahead of Week 1; his draft price does not sufficiently reflect the risk of rushing back and aggravating the soft-tissue injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kendre Miller:</strong> Listed as RB72 in the Almanac; holds contingent appeal as a deep bench stash behind Travis Etienne with Alvin Kamara sidelined, though injury history prevents standard-league draft investment.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Raheim Sanders:</strong> Big, powerful back on the Browns who could step into early-down volume if Quinshon Judkins misses time.</p></li><li><p>220-230 lbs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Nicholas Singleton:</strong> Locked in as Tony Pollard's backup in Tennessee and running with good patience; preferred as a deeper stash over rising rookie Jonah Coleman.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jared Goff:</strong> Offers reliable top-10 QB production at a heavy discount (going ~40 picks behind Dak Prescott); draft as QB12 in the 9th or 10th round when waiting on QB.</p></li><li><p>3 straight years with 30+ TDs and 4,500+ yards.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Romeo Doubs:</strong> Upgraded offensive environment with Drake Maye in New England; provides WR3 upside with contingent WR1/WR2 value if AJ Brown misses time; target in Round 10.</p></li><li><p>ADP WR52 / Round 11.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Juwan Johnson:</strong> Consistently earns target volume in Kellen Moore's offense (77 catches, 889 yards in 2024); draft around the 12th round as a starting TE value.</p></li><li><p>ADP ~135 / Round 12.</p></li><li><p>Ranked TE8/TE9.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> Set for full-field usage after consecutive 1,000-yard, 7-TD campaigns; draft aggressively in Round 4 to secure high-end WR2 production.</p></li><li><p>ADP WR26 / Round 5.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Projected for ~65% touch share and primary goal-line duties with double-digit TD upside; represents a strong Round 5 target who can easily return 3rd/4th-round value.</p></li><li><p>ADP Round 5 (pick 52).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>1119: Mailbag - Chicago's Pass-Catchers, Going Against ADP, and More</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft boards allow flexible roster construction this season, with concentrated offenses providing distinct leverage spots for players like Ladd McConkey and Drake London (with Michael Penix), while RBs drafted in rounds 1-5 remain reasonably priced relative to structural historical baselines.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chicago Pass Catchers:</strong> When three pass catchers on the same team are drafted in the top 72 overall, historical precedent shows it is rare for all three to beat ADP expectation (only the 2023 49ers did), but 6 of 11 teams saw two of the three succeed. Do not automatically fade a player like Rome Odunze just because teammates went early.</p></li><li><p>11 teams since 2014 had 3 pass catchers drafted top 72 overall (through round 6 in 12-team leagues).</p></li><li><p>6 of 11 teams saw 2 of 3 exceed expectation; 3 of 11 saw 1; 1 team (2017 Washington) saw all 3 bust.</p></li><li><p>86% of TEs in the sample hit 10+ PPR PPG.</p></li><li><p>Almost 60% of WRs in the sample hit 14+ PPR PPG.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> Target McConkey aggressively as Mike McDaniel's offense heavily utilizes motion and reduces 11 personnel, concentrating targets on fewer WRs on the field.</p></li><li><p>McConkey posted 2.52 YPRR and 26% TPRR on routes with 1 or 2 WRs on the field over the last two seasons.</p></li><li><p>McConkey posted 1.83 YPRR and 21% TPRR when more than 2 WRs were on the field.</p></li><li><p>Dolphins led NFL in motion at the line over the last four years and tied the 49ers with only Ravens running less 11 personnel.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Stevenson warrants drafting over younger explosive backs like TreVeyon Henderson due to proven pass-protection trust, receiving chops, and league-leading efficiency metrics in the second half of last season.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson ranked 1st in the NFL last season in rushing yards over expected per rush.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy / Round 1 Pick 1.03-1.04:</strong> Drafting Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua at 1.03/1.04 often prices fantasy managers out of elite round 2 RBs, pushing drafts toward Hero-RB or Zero-RB builds; consider taking Christian McCaffrey in Tier 2 to secure an anchor RB before the drop-off in round 4/5.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Drake London:</strong> London's fantasy ceiling is dramatically higher with Michael Penix under center compared to Tua Tagovailoa based on two-year production splits.</p></li><li><p>384 routes with Penix: 2.99 YPRR, 33.6% TPRR, 0.63 PPR points per route run (trailing only Puka Nacua across 2024-2025).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>RB Market Trends:</strong> The market shift toward drafting RBs early is modest and reasonable rather than an irrational overreaction. Managers do not need to force an RB-RB start everywhere, but back-half round 1 drafts offer ideal spots for difference-making RBs followed by deep WR value.</p></li><li><p>26 RBs drafted in top 60 picks (rounds 1-5) versus 24 last year.</p></li><li><p>Round-by-round RB count (last year vs this year): R1 (6 vs 6), R2 (5 vs 6), R3 (3 vs 5), R4 (6 vs 5), R5 (4 vs 4).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</h2><p><em>The 2026 All Boring Team</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Fantasy managers can find massive draft edges and floor/ceiling stability by targeting established, high-volume veterans (such as James Cook, Kyren Williams, Javonte Williams, Nico Collins, Brock Purdy, and Mark Andrews) who are being drafted at a discount due to a lack of social media hype.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>James Cook:</strong> Cook represents top-tier late first-round value (available around picks 6&#8211;10) after leading the league in rushing with 300 carries and 14 TDs last season, with expected passing-game expansion under OC Pete Carmichael.</p></li><li><p>ADP around 9th-10th overall.</p></li><li><p>300 carries and 14 TDs last season (18 TDs in 2024).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Nico Collins:</strong> Collins possesses elite high-floor and top-5 ceiling receiver potential at a late second-round ADP, ranking 7th among all WRs in points per game over the past three seasons.</p></li><li><p>WR10 finish last season (12.7 half-PPR PPG).</p></li><li><p>WR7 in PPG over the last three seasons combined.</p></li><li><p>Ranked #21 overall in hosts' consensus rankings.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Terry McLaurin &amp; Washington Offense:</strong> Consider fading McLaurin and Washington's offense entirely onto 'Do Not Draft' lists due to major offensive line issues, injury setbacks, and questionable schematic transitions under center.</p></li><li><p>Career-best fantasy finish of WR16 even during peak team offensive efficiency.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyren Williams:</strong> Williams continues to deliver top-10 RB production in Sean McVay's high-powered Rams offense, maintaining 70% of goal-to-go snaps despite Blake Corum's presence, making his RB14 ADP a bargain.</p></li><li><p>RB8 in 2024, RB11 in 2025, RB2 in 2023 (20 PPG).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Javonte Williams:</strong> Williams is undervalued at an RB16 ADP while operating as the clear lead back and primary red-zone option for an elite Cowboys offense.</p></li><li><p>7th in expected fantasy points last season.</p></li><li><p>252 carries (10th among RBs).</p></li><li><p>4th in yards after contact per attempt.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Etienne:</strong> With Alvin Kamara sidelined for roughly a month due to an MCL injury and New Orleans facing the second-easiest schedule in the NFL, Etienne is primed for heavy rushing and receiving volume.</p></li><li><p>1,100 rushing yards last season.</p></li><li><p>1,400+ yards from scrimmage in 3 of 4 NFL seasons.</p></li><li><p>32 career TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brock Purdy:</strong> Purdy is an ideal late-round QB target being drafted as QB15 despite finishing in the top 12 every season and leading the league in EPA per dropback over the last three seasons.</p></li><li><p>Finished as QB6 in PPG last year and QB8 overall.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 31 PPG in the fantasy playoffs (2nd-highest QB playoff run in fantasy history).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Wilson commands elite target volume (9.3 targets/game over 3 years) and could see a value resurgence if Geno Smith provides baseline passing efficiency behind an improved Jets offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Jets have 5th-easiest schedule by Warren Sharp metrics.</p></li><li><p>Drafted around WR20.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mark Andrews:</strong> Andrews is an elite value at TE with an ADP around pick 120+, sitting as the clear top red-zone and receiving target in a potent Ravens offense following a $40M extension and Isaiah Likely's departure.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>Our NFL Insider answers the biggest fantasy questions</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Key scheme transitions and coordinator hires&#8212;including Sean Mannion in Philadelphia, Declan Doyle in Baltimore, and Brian Fleury in Seattle&#8212;along with personnel shifts across training camps, are creating major target and touch reallocations that offer high-leverage fantasy draft value.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Golden has stepped into the Packers' primary X-receiver role and built strong progression-read rapport with Jordan Love following the departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks (131 vacated targets). He is undervalued at his ~126 ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> Hurts' camp interceptions reflect deliberate boundary-testing in Sean Mannion's timing- and anticipation-based Shanahan/McVay system. The offense's aggressive blocking and married run-pass looks provide high-end bounce-back ceiling.</p></li><li><p>Eagles offense dropped to 19th in points and 24th in yardage last season.</p></li><li><p>Rushing offense lost roughly 70 yards per game year-over-year.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>George Pickens:</strong> Pickens displayed stronger early camp chemistry with Dak Prescott than CeeDee Lamb, making him capable of matching Lamb's production despite playing primarily as an outside X receiver.</p></li><li><p>Pickens had the lowest slot snap percentage among WRs running 200+ routes last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Sean Payton and Davis Webb are utilizing Waddle heavily in pre-snap motion and from the slot for vertical seam routes, unlocking high-volume explosive play opportunities with Bo Nix.</p></li><li><p>35-yard reception with 12 yards after catch in preseason play.</p></li><li><p>Draft target in round 4 of fantasy drafts.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Michael Pittman:</strong> Pittman projects to lead the Steelers in receptions and potentially receiving yards as Aaron Rodgers' primary quick-release safety valve on underneath and flat concepts.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Shane Steichen is moving Warren all over formations as a matchup mismatch against defensive backs and linebackers, projecting him for heavy target volume even with Daniel Jones managing Achilles recovery.</p></li><li><p>Draft range typically in the 40 to 50 overall ADP window.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyler Murray:</strong> Minnesota's installation of new run-game concepts under Frank Smith will feature Murray's mobility on designed runs and off-schedule plays, elevating the Vikings' offensive ceiling.</p></li><li><p>Murray on a 1-year contract.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Oronde Gadsden:</strong> Gadsden's lack of inline blocking ability leaves him buried behind David Njoku and Charlie Kolar in Mike McDaniel's Chargers offense, making him off-limits in standard redraft formats.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Concepcion projects for steady PPR floor via manufactured screen and gadget touches under Todd Monken, though overall team offensive limitations will cap his weekly ceiling.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Lamar Jackson:</strong> Declan Doyle has transitioned Jackson to a left-foot-forward stance to improve passing timing in Ben Johnson-style concepts, creating a brief early-season acclimation period.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.27.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[13 episodes, 11 hours + 58 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82726</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82726</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 01:00:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 13 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82726-full-notes">LINK</a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Today&#8217;s Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#9888;&#65039; <strong>Commanders line raises alarms</strong>: Laremy Tunsil&#8217;s injury threatens the outlook for Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>)</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late-round depth</strong>: Depth at TE and QB this year allows managers to prioritize early RB and WR anchors. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>)</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#9889; Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Overall RB1 candidate after David Montgomery&#8217;s departure.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Gibbs scored 18 TDs last season and steps into high-value vacated goal-line carries. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>)</p></li><li><p>Detroit may still use a complementary back for short-yardage and pass protection after Gibbs allowed the league's highest RB pressure rate. (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Nacua remains a high-end WR1 candidate thanks to historic target-earning efficiency.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Nacua averaged an NFL-record 95.3 receiving yards per game through his first three seasons with a 30% target share. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li><li><p>Lingering groin soreness and potential disciplinary questions create minor early-season risk. (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#127939; Kenneth Walker (RB, KC)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Walker projects as a three-down workhorse in Kansas City's light-box offense.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Walker gains substantial efficiency against two-deep coverage shells after Kansas City faced the league's fewest stacked boxes last year. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>)</p></li><li><p>Recent ankle swelling from his shoe highlights his physical run style and makes backup Emmett Johnson a key handcuff. (<em>The Audible</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#127993; Chris Olave (WR, NO)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Olave is positioned for an elite target share in Kellen Moore's fast-paced scheme.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Olave finished as fantasy WR7 last season while averaging 18.8 points per game with QB Tyler Shough. (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>)</p></li><li><p>Opposing secondaries could focus defensive coverage heavily on Olave if Jordyn Tyson misses time with an injury. (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#128737;&#65039; Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Should see stable volume at a multi-round discount relative to TreVeyon Henderson.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Stevenson ranked first among qualified RBs in rushing yards over expected per attempt while handling first-team and red-zone snaps. (<em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>)</p></li><li><p>New England's overall offensive scoring ceiling remains low if target distribution becomes fragmented among secondary receivers. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#9878;&#65039; The Caleb Williams Early-Round Price Tag</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Analysts disagree on whether Caleb Williams justifies an early QB7 draft cost.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Williams provides top-five dual-threat upside after finishing top-seven in both passing and rushing yards at QB last year. (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Williams ranked 25th in EPA per dropback over the last two years and carries bottom-10 passing efficiency marks. (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#9878;&#65039; The Breece Hall Workload Outlook</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Experts are split on whether Breece Hall is an early-round anchor or a multi-back committee trap.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Hall possesses elite pass-catching talent and double-digit TD bounce-back potential in a consolidated offensive role. (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Frank Reich's three-running-back rotation and team offensive limitations make Hall a fade before the late fourth round. (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>, <em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>)</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.27.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[13 episodes, 11 hours + 58 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82726-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82726-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:40:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>13 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>11 hours and 58 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</strong>: <em>Evan Silva and Adam Levitan Round-by-Round Favorite Picks (Episode 1014)</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Ted Nguyen: NFL Preseason Reaction &amp; Fernando Mendoza Breakdown</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>League Sleepers NOBODY Is Talking About | Fantasy Focus</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>Answering 2026 Fantasy Football's BIGGEST Questions - The Caleb Williams Debate!</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>Preseason Love/Hate (QBs + RBs)</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>8 Riskiest Players + Late-Round TEs, Injury Updates &amp; More! (08/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>FINAL Do Not Draft List! 15 Players We&#8217;re Avoiding: Trey McBride, Ashton Jeanty &amp; More! (08/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Mock Draft Episode! + Meat Your Maker - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/27</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Life Show</strong>: <em>How To Pivot In Drafts</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Super-Deep Sleepers For 2026 - Part 1</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Audible</strong>: <em>How Do These Preseason Injuries Reshape Fantasy Draft Strategy for Chase, Henderson, Walker and the Stars Around Them</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>The Show: Make or Break Areas of Your Draft, Camp News, and More</em> (August 27)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>Fantasy vultures: 10 players who are better in real life than fantasy</em> (August 27)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</h2><p><em>Evan Silva and Adam Levitan Round-by-Round Favorite Picks (Episode 1014)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> An early-round running-back anchor combined with elite-efficiency WRs and targeted middle-round upside plays (like high-target TEs and dual-threat QBs) provides the optimal roster blueprint for 2026 redraft leagues.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs:</strong> With David Montgomery departed, Detroit's upgraded offensive line, a declining defense, and Drew Petzing's pass-friendly scheme, Gibbs possesses an unmatched overall RB1 ceiling with massive goal-line and receiving equity.</p></li><li><p>Montgomery had 8th most inside-5 carries last year and 5th most in 2024.</p></li><li><p>Gibbs scored 18 TDs in 2025 and 20 in 2024.</p></li><li><p>Lions have the softest schedule in the NFL with 3rd highest implied total behind Rams and Bills.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> Nacua is a legitimate contender for overall WR1 due to historic target-earning efficiency, entering his age-25 season with limited target competition and a heavy tight-end usage scheme that concentrates receiver volume.</p></li><li><p>Averaging 7.1 catches per game through first three seasons.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 95.3 receiving yards per game (highest in NFL history).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Projected as Kansas City's clear workhorse RB across base and passing downs, benefitting from light defensive boxes generated by two-deep shell coverage against Patrick Mahomes.</p></li><li><p>Targeted at the top of Round 2.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Bowers offers generational tight-end upside in Clint Kubiak's offense, free of competition for alpha target share and fully recovered from last season's PCL injury.</p></li><li><p>112 receptions as a rookie (3rd in NFL, most by any rookie in history).</p></li><li><p>Top-4 fantasy TE in PPG last year despite Week 1 PCL injury.</p></li><li><p>Redraft ADP around pick 22 overall.</p></li><li><p>Projected ceiling of 1,500 yards and 100+ catches.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Javonte Williams:</strong> Williams is positioned for top-tier touch volume behind Dallas' top-8 offensive line with high TD equity and checkdown stability from Dak Prescott.</p></li><li><p>Projected for 50 receptions and 12+ TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> Olave is primed for a monster target share in Kellen Moore's fast-paced offense with Tyler Shough at QB, an improved offensive line, and 10 dome games.</p></li><li><p>30% to 35% projected target share.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> McConkey is set to thrive in Mike McDaniel's high-YAC offensive scheme operating out of the vacated slot role following Keenan Allen's exit.</p></li><li><p>Recommended target in Round 4.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Travis Etienne:</strong> With Alvin Kamara sidelined indefinitely and minimal backfield competition, Etienne projects for an every-down bellcow role in an ascending New Orleans offense.</p></li><li><p>Signed 4-year, $47 million contract in free agency.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Burden returned to practice on August 26 from a groin issue and is an elite target in Ben Johnson's pass-heavy Bears offense with shootout game scripts expected.</p></li><li><p>Recommended Round 5 target.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Daniels offers elite dual-threat upside at a steep discount in Round 6 due to past injury concerns, operating in David Blough's upgraded offensive scheme.</p></li><li><p>Rushed for 891 yards and 6 TDs with a 69% completion rate as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> Watson is paid as Green Bay's clear WR1 and will be moved all over the formation without heavy receiver rotation in a pass-concentrated attack.</p></li><li><p>Sixth-round draft target.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> Locked into the primary slot role in 3WR sets and staying on the field in 2WR sets under Liam Coen, making him the functional WR1 in Jacksonville while Travis Hunter practices at outside X.</p></li><li><p>Value target in Round 7, with range spanning Round 5 to Round 9.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>J.K. Dobbins:</strong> Dobbins is the clear lead back behind Denver's top-ranked offensive line and top defense, providing immense weekly floor when healthy.</p></li><li><p>5.2 career YPC (5.1 YPC last season).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 16.2 touches per game prior to injury last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jayden Reed:</strong> Entering his fourth season with a thin Packers tight-end room and personnel departures, Reed projects for high-volume slot usage and elite efficiency.</p></li><li><p>Signed $50 million contract in April.</p></li><li><p>Career 2.09 yards per route run and &gt;129 passer rating when targeted.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Kincaid is a premier middle-round tight-end breakout candidate with elite yards-per-route-run metrics and potential to lead Buffalo in receiving.</p></li><li><p>Targeted in Round 8 (or rounds 9-10 if drafts allow).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Ted Nguyen: NFL Preseason Reaction &amp; Fernando Mendoza Breakdown</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Rookie backup RBs like Mike Washington and Jonah Coleman are carving out substantial roles that offer immediate contingency value, while the Texans boast a top-tier attacking defense and upgraded offensive personnel.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Mike Washington has shown impressive vision and burst with preseason runs of 33 and 53 yards, positioning him for standalone value and immediate early-season work if Jeanty is sidelined.</p></li><li><p>220 pounds.</p></li><li><p>4.3 forty-yard dash speed.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Broncos head coach Sean Payton is enamored with rookie Jonah Coleman, making Coleman a high-upside handcuff/RB2 who could step into a major role if J.K. Dobbins suffers an injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Fernando Mendoza:</strong> Mendoza looks significantly more comfortable operating from under center and running play-action than anticipated, though the Raiders may delay starting him over Kirk Cousins until offensive line pass protection proves adequate.</p></li><li><p>5 under-center snaps in college career.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Montgomery represents a substantial backfield upgrade for the Texans offense, which only needs league-average efficiency alongside an elite defense to make a deep postseason run.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Houston Defense:</strong> The Texans defense features elite attacking fronts and continuity with 8 returning starters, giving them top-tier fantasy defense potential under coordinator Matt Burke.</p></li><li><p>8 returning starters for 3rd consecutive year.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>League Sleepers NOBODY Is Talking About | Fantasy Focus</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Late-round fantasy value is often found in post-hype sophomores, high-pedigree rookies, and backup RBs with standalone contingency upside rather than projecting full 18-week starters.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Remains an upside TE sleeper at TE15 ADP due to strong per-target efficiency, though he must improve upon his 37% snap share from last season to deliver consistent fantasy value.</p></li><li><p>Ranked no higher than TE16 by hosts.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Romeo Doubs:</strong> Signed a $17M/year deal with New England and operates opposite AJ Brown, but has averaged 10.2 to 10.3 fantasy points per game for three consecutive seasons and faces target competition from Pop Douglas and Kyle Williams.</p></li><li><p>WR55 ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brian Thomas Jr.:</strong> Represents extreme value at his WR38-WR40 ADP as a post-hype target who flashed WR1 overall potential as a rookie, where the upside vastly outweighs draft-day risk.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Xavier Worthy:</strong> A prime post-hype target available in double-digit rounds (WR44 ADP) who scored 12 total TDs in 20 games as a rookie and faces limited veteran target competition outside Rashee Rice.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Gunnar Helm:</strong> A deep TE stash who caught 44 passes as a rookie backup (11th most among rookie TEs in the past decade) and could serve as an immediate safety valve for Cam Ward.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Woody Marks:</strong> Showed explosive juice and pass-catching ability with the starters in preseason, giving him a path to overtake veteran David Montgomery ($8M/year) in Houston's backfield.</p></li><li><p>Marks averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game last year with 1 top-10 finish.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> With Alec Pierce being activated and Keenan Allen operating in the slot, Downs needs expanded perimeter alignments to sustain fantasy value beyond his WR46-WR47 baseline ranking.</p></li><li><p>Finished between WR35 and WR45 in each of his first 3 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Isaac TeSlaa:</strong> Despite mixed camp reports regarding full-route execution, TeSlaa ranked 11th in the entire NFL in end-zone targets last year and scored 6 TDs in limited action, giving him high TD equity.</p></li><li><p>WR347 ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> A critical bench stash and insurance policy in drafts ahead of potential discipline or status clarity surrounding starter Josh Jacobs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jalen McMillan:</strong> A premier late-round stash who flashed massive ceiling at the end of his rookie season, averaging over 19 fantasy points per game over his final five games.</p></li><li><p>7 receptions for 114 yards in Week 17.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jalen Coker:</strong> Delivered four top-25 fantasy WR weeks over his final seven games of 2025, validating his viability as a top-66 ADP sleeper in Carolina.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Deebo Samuel:</strong> Rejoined San Francisco with established familiarity in Kyle Shanahan's system, maintaining a high floor after logging at least 85 touches and 800 scrimmage yards in five straight seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tyler Allgeier:</strong> May carve out an egalitarian goal-line and early-down role in Arizona's backfield, capping rookie Jeremiyah Love's ceiling and making Allgeier an attractive standalone sleeper at RB46 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Projected for potential 180-carry workload.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>Answering 2026 Fantasy Football's BIGGEST Questions - The Caleb Williams Debate!</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Avoid overpaying for Chicago's hype at early-round costs&#8212;specifically Caleb Williams at QB7 and Colston Loveland at TE3&#8212;while capitalizing on undervalued volume plays like Chris Olave and high-upside rookies like KC Concepcion.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Priced at his ceiling as QB7 on Sleeper and Yahoo despite ranking 25th in EPA per dropback over the last two years and posting bottom-10 efficiency across CPOE, passer rating, and catchable ball rate.</p></li><li><p>QB7 on Sleeper and Yahoo ADP.</p></li><li><p>25th in EPA per dropback over the last two seasons (14th under Ben Johnson).</p></li><li><p>&gt;3.0 seconds average time to throw.</p></li><li><p>3% turnover-worthy throw rate.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Drafting Loveland at his TE3 ADP in the first four rounds carries excessive downside risk because his late-season breakout was limited to a 4-game sample of extreme negative game scripts.</p></li><li><p>TE3 ADP across major platforms.</p></li><li><p>Drafted ahead of Zay Flowers on Yahoo and Tee Higgins on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>Bears trailed 75%+ of snaps in all 4 breakout games.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> With Jordyn Tyson sidelined with an injury extending into the season, Olave offers WR7 upside in year two under Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 8.9 targets per game and 18.8 fantasy PPG with Tyler Shough.</p></li><li><p>Finished as fantasy WR7 last season.</p></li><li><p>Projected at WR10 in points per game by Chris Wecht.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Draft Concepcion over Denzel Boston in redraft formats due to his tailored usage in Todd Monken's screen-heavy scheme and heavy personnel alignments.</p></li><li><p>Concepcion ADP currently represents extreme value on FFPC.</p></li><li><p>Modeled in a heavy-personnel screen role similar to Zay Flowers.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Mike Washington's emergence in preseason could turn the backfield into a 65/35 committee, making Jeanty a risky pick to return value at a Round 1 redraft ADP.</p></li><li><p>Projected baseline for Jeanty of 250+ carries and 50+ targets.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Pittsburgh:</strong> Pittsburgh's offense is positioned to outperform market expectations behind an upgraded offensive line and the addition of Michael Pittman Jr. to complement Aaron Rodgers.</p></li><li><p>Michael Pittman Jr. carries multiple 140-target seasons on his resume.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>Preseason Love/Hate (QBs + RBs)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft values emerge from boring, high-floor players and depressed ADPs in potent offenses (Bengals, Bears, Chargers), while expensive assets with impending TD or touch regression should be avoided.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Joe Burrow:</strong> Target Joe Burrow as QB5; he is undervalued at an ADP around 60 (6th-7th round) despite being QB3 in points per game over the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>QB5 in Berry's rankings vs. ADP 60 (overall pick 56 rank).</p></li><li><p>QB3 in PPG over past two seasons behind only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.</p></li><li><p>Bengals offense ranked top 2 in pass rate and top 5 in pass rate over expectation in each of the last 3 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Draft Caleb Williams as a top-7 fantasy QB with top-5 upside due to rushing production and Ben Johnson's offensive scheme.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as QB7 by Berry.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dak Prescott:</strong> Target Dak Prescott in the 9th round as an unsexy high-floor QB1 with elite top-12 weekly finish consistency.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank 78 overall vs. ADP 84 (9th round).</p></li><li><p>Averaged at least 18.5 PPG and finished as top-10 QB in each of his last 4 fully healthy seasons.</p></li><li><p>Cowboys ranked 2nd in pass attempts across 3 seasons with Brian Schottenheimer calling plays.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> Target Justin Herbert expecting his best fantasy season yet in Mike McDaniel's offensive system with upgraded weapons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Malik Willis:</strong> Target Malik Willis late in deep leagues or Guillotine formats due to a high rushing floor.</p></li><li><p>45 rushing yards per game as a starter.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank QB19 vs. ADP QB21.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Matthew Stafford:</strong> Fade Matthew Stafford at his QB12 ADP due to unsustainable short-yardage TD rates and positive game scripts driven by a strong defense.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank QB16 vs. ADP QB12.</p></li><li><p>11 TDs of 2 yards or less last season (no other QB had more than 5).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Temper expectations for Bo Nix as a QB1; his baseline scoring is mid-QB2 after removing an outlier 40-point game, combined with rushing questions coming off an ankle injury.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as QB15 by Berry.</p></li><li><p>PPG drops to 16.6 (QB14 pace) without Week 7 40-point outlier game.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Aggressively draft Kenneth Walker as an elite three-down bellcow with overall RB1 potential behind an improved Chiefs offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank RB6 (12 overall) vs. ADP RB10 (16 overall).</p></li><li><p>Averages &gt;18 PPG and &gt;110 scrimmage YPG in 25 career games with &gt;=18 touches.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Prioritize Chase Brown over Saquon Barkley and De'Von Achane due to elite utilization and high-scoring Bengals offense.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank RB7 vs. ADP RB9.</p></li><li><p>RB2 in fantasy scoring and RB4 utilization score from Week 13 onward last season.</p></li><li><p>5th among RBs in 15+ point games in PPR since Week 9 of 2024 (behind Achane, Robinson, Gibbs, McCaffrey).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Draft Derrick Henry in the late first or early second round as a safe, highly efficient volume rusher with top-5 upside in half-PPR.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank RB9 (15 overall) vs. ADP RB12 (pick 20).</p></li><li><p>RB5 in half-PPR since joining Baltimore.</p></li><li><p>&gt;5.0 yards per carry in each of last 2 years (only he and Jahmyr Gibbs achieved this).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Target Omarion Hampton as a primary beneficiary of Mike McDaniel's Chargers running scheme and high goal-line usage.</p></li><li><p>Top 5 in team red zone and goal-line rushes when active last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Draft D'Andre Swift as an undervalued, durable RB2 projection in Chicago's upgraded offense.</p></li><li><p>Top 24 RB in 75% of games last season.</p></li><li><p>Only 2 games under 9 fantasy points.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Draft Rhamondre Stevenson over TreVeyon Henderson at a round-and-a-half discount as the trusted lead and goal-line back.</p></li><li><p>Drafted 1 to 1.5 rounds after TreVeyon Henderson.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Stash rookie Jonah Coleman late as a sleeper projected to take over Denver's backfield during the second half of the season.</p></li><li><p>J.K. Dobbins has missed 53 games over the last 5 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Fade TreVeyon Henderson at his top-60 ADP due to pass protection struggles, limited third-down snaps, and reliance on outlier explosive runs.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank 68 overall vs. ADP 60.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 11 touches and &lt;10 PPG in games with Stevenson active.</p></li><li><p>Played on only 21% of 3rd downs with Stevenson active.</p></li><li><p>26% of rushing yards came on just 4 carries.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Fade Bucky Irving at pick 51 due to poor after-contact metrics and target competition from Kenneth Gainwell.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank ~60 overall vs. ADP 51.</p></li><li><p>2.3 yards after contact per attempt (lowest in NFL among RBs with 100+ carries).</p></li><li><p>Only 5% of carries gained 10+ yards.</p></li><li><p>Averaged &lt;12 PPG in games with single-digit target share.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>8 Riskiest Players + Late-Round TEs, Injury Updates &amp; More! (08/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Navigating early rounds in fantasy drafts requires balancing injury risk and volume upside: elite players with question marks like Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, and Jeremiyah Love present discounted value, while deteriorating offensive lines (e.g., Washington, Carolina) and backfield committees warrant caution.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey carries elevated risk due to historical touch overload (two 400-touch campaigns followed by missed time) and added receiving weapons reducing his target projection from 7.1 per game down toward a 16-18 PPR PPG range, though his ceiling remains elite.</p></li><li><p>Jamie ranks him 11th overall, Dave ranks him 8th, Adam ranks him ~5th.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 23.8+ PPR PPG in four full seasons; 7.1 targets per game in 2023.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> Despite dealing with a groin injury, Nacua remains a WR1 upside pick over Jaxon Smith-Njigba unless missed practice stretches closer to Week 1.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 22.5 receiving fantasy PPG last season.</p></li><li><p>Target share of roughly 30% over the last two seasons when on the field.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Love has slid into the 3rd/4th round following a high ankle sprain; while the floor outcome mirrors rookie-year production and Tyler Allgeier threatens goal-line work, he represents value if drafted at his floor.</p></li><li><p>Drafted around RB16 / late Round 3 to Round 4.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> Watson is preferred over an injured Mike Evans in the late 5th / early 6th round due to his high yards-per-target efficiency and thinned Packers target competition, though game-to-game volatility remains.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 5.5 targets per game last season.</p></li><li><p>28.3% target per route run rate in weeks 11-18.</p></li><li><p>Scored 18+ PPR points in 3 of 8 games with 70%+ routes.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Irving is rising into the Round 4-5 turn range as reports suggest Sean Tucker may be phased out, giving Irving clear outside-run and potential goal-line equity behind an intact offensive line.</p></li><li><p>4.8 targets per game over first 4 games before injury last season.</p></li><li><p>Projected for 1,000+ total yards and ~35-50 catches.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late-Round TEs:</strong> Dalton Schultz and Juwan Johnson serve as viable immediate Week 1 plug-in starters due to injuries to team target competitors, while Terrance Ferguson provides second-half stash upside.</p></li><li><p>Schultz ranked TE15, Johnson TE16, Ferguson TE17 by Jamie.</p></li><li><p>Schultz saw 106 targets in 2023, averaging 11.9 PPR PPG over a 9-game stretch.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Breece Hall:</strong> Hall should be avoided in Round 3 and viewed strictly as a late 4th-rounder due to training camp groin concerns, offensive scheme questions, and team offensive limitations.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 13 PPR PPG last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Drafting Josh Allen at his current 19th overall ADP is suboptimal when comparable QB production can be found starting in Round 4 or later.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jadarian Price vs. Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Price is favored over Tuten in Round 5-6 drafts because Seattle's backfield offers fewer immediate obstacles with Zach Charbonnet recovering from a January ACL tear.</p></li><li><p>Seattle RB group averaged 1.6 more PPR PPG than Jacksonville last season.</p></li><li><p>~400 vacated touches in Seattle during Charbonnet's absence.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Washington Offensive Line:</strong> Losses of Laremy Tunsil and Nick Allegretti severely compromise Washington's pass protection, likely suppressing Terry McLaurin's downfield efficiency, increasing checkdowns/designed rushes for Jayden Daniels, and elevating short-area targets for Stefon Diggs.</p></li><li><p>Ranked bottom-4 to bottom-7 consensus O-line.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>FINAL Do Not Draft List! 15 Players We&#8217;re Avoiding: Trey McBride, Ashton Jeanty &amp; More! (08/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Avoid reaching at ADP for banged-up or situationally compromised players like Josh Allen (in round 2), Cam Skattebo, TreVeyon Henderson, and Breece Hall, while targeting high-contingency backups and falling draft values.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Early Round 3 is the ideal draft range for Jacobs despite lingering groin issues and contingency talk around a potential suspension, offering top-tier upside relative to question marks like Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Target Lloyd as a handcuff in deeper fantasy leagues where replacing starting RBs is difficult, but do not force him in shallow leagues with 4-5 bench spots.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Swift is in a tier of RBs at the 3-4 turn and is preferred in early Round 4; his contingent upside rises while Kyle Monangai deals with a knee injury.</p></li><li><p>RB18 to RB20 expected finish.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jonathon Brooks &amp; Chuba Hubbard:</strong> Brooks is ranked one spot ahead of Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Round 7, while Hubbard is one spot behind Rachaad White in Round 10; both backfields carry high contingent upside if one back gets hurt.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Puka Nacua &amp; Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Nacua remains WR4 in Round 1 behind Chase, JSN, and St. Brown despite injury and suspension concerns. If Nacua misses time, Ferguson is a prime late-round TE beneficiary.</p></li><li><p>WR4 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Emeka Egbuka &amp; Chris Godwin:</strong> Both Egbuka and Godwin could see north of 7 targets per game this season with Mike Evans' targets vacating, making Godwin a locked-in value out of the slot.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Luther Burden III:</strong> Burden returned to practice and is targeted as the top WR in high Round 4 (WR18/19 range) after falling due to injury concerns.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Alec Pierce &amp; Josh Downs:</strong> Wait until Round 8 to draft Colts WRs Alec Pierce or Josh Downs; monitor Pierce's transition into team drills coming off PUP before adjusting rankings higher.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Trey McBride:</strong> Avoid drafting McBride at his current early ADP due to the loss of OC Drew Petzing, impending target/route regression, and the emergence of Michael Wilson; Loveland is preferred later.</p></li><li><p>Ran 2 full games more routes than any TE last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo:</strong> Skattebo is overvalued at ADP 34.9 (RB16) and should be drafted in late Round 5 due to backfield competition from Najee Harris, Tyrone Tracy, and Devin Singletary.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Avoid drafting Mike Evans at his WR27 / 66.5 ADP given age (33), recurring soft tissue injuries (quad, groin), and low projected volume in a Shanahan-style system.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Williams is overpriced at QB8 / 75.1 ADP when comparable production can be drafted 15-25 picks later with Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, or Jared Goff.</p></li><li><p>Target later QBs at 90-100.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Breece Hall:</strong> Fade Hall at his early Round 4 ADP (39.0 / RB19) to late Round 4 due to Frank Reich's 3-RB rotation and historically low team scoring; if drafted, consider selling high during a favorable early schedule.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson vs. Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Avoid Henderson at RB26 (66th overall); Stevenson is getting first-team and red-zone work and represents far safer value going 13 picks later.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyle Pitts:</strong> Draft Pitts near TE5/6; his historical 23%+ target per route run rate in the Stefanski/Petzing offensive scheme makes his current draft price attractive.</p></li><li><p>TE5/TE6.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Do not select Josh Allen in Round 2; let him fall to Round 3 or Round 4 to capture appropriate draft capital value relative to late QB options.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> Be cautious selecting McCaffrey at pick 7 or higher due to his 400+ touch history, age 30 profile, and San Francisco's added pass-catching depth.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Fade Achane in Round 1 (ADP 11); draft him in Round 2 instead due to the Dolphins' low projected win total (4.5) and lower target volume from Malik Willis.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty &amp; Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Do not draft Jeanty until Round 3 (target Mike Washington later around rounds 7-9) and pass on Love until Round 4 due to ongoing injuries and difficult team schedules.</p></li><li><p>Love Round 4 target (ADP 32.8).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Mock Draft Episode! + Meat Your Maker - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/27</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Backfield ambiguity creates major draft value: Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren offer differing upside paths in Pittsburgh, while patience on late-round QBs and TEs unlocks premium depth at WR and RB.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rico Dowdle vs. Jaylen Warren:</strong> Andy and Mike prefer Dowdle for his TD upside and past efficiency under Mike McCarthy, while Jason prefers Warren due to his starter status on the depth chart and pass-catching role with Aaron Rodgers.</p></li><li><p>Dowdle had 284 opportunities, 235 carries, 1,079 yards, and 39 receptions in Dallas (2024), followed by 286 opportunities, 236 carries, 1,076 yards, and 39 receptions in Carolina.</p></li><li><p>Warren logged 14 carries inside the 5-yard line with 4 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Alec Pierce:</strong> Activated off the PUP list; Andy views Pierce as a massive late-round target (rounds 7-10) who led the league in yards per reception, while Jason recommends passing in drafts due to a brutal opening schedule against Baltimore, Kansas City, and Houston.</p></li><li><p>Tough opening matchups against Ravens, Chiefs, Texans.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Despite intending to play Week 1, Evans carries elevated injury risk with recurring soft-tissue issues (quad, groin, hamstring), leading the hosts to treat him as a volatile, injury-prone asset who may miss chunks of the season.</p></li><li><p>Multiple soft-tissue injuries reported.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tucker Kraft &amp; Jonnu Smith:</strong> The Packers signing Jonnu Smith is viewed as depth for Luke Musgrave's significant abdominal injury rather than a threat to Tucker Kraft's starting role.</p></li><li><p>Musgrave dealing with an abdominal injury reported four days prior.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Daniels &amp; Commanders Offense:</strong> Severe concerns over Washington's offensive line following Laremy Tunsil's departure make Jayden Daniels and the entire offense high-risk, leading hosts to fade Daniels around his 7th-round ADP.</p></li><li><p>Selected at 7.10 in the mock draft.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Draft Strategy:</strong> If missing out on the elite TEs, waiting until double-digit rounds to select from a deep tier (Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goedert, Juwan Johnson) optimizes roster build.</p></li><li><p>Pitts selected at 9.10, Kincaid at 10.02, Likely and Johnson in round 11.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Dontayvion Wicks &amp; Romeo Doubs:</strong> Both Packers WRs offer significant standalone value as late-round starting outside receivers in a high-powered Green Bay passing attack.</p></li><li><p>Doubs drafted at 10.03, Wicks drafted at 11.07.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Life Show</h2><p><em>How To Pivot In Drafts</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> See the seasonal-redraft takeaways below.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Handcuffing Strategy:</strong> Avoid drafting the direct backup to your own starting RBs in managed redraft; drafting high-upside handcuffs from other backfields provides the potential to start two RB1s simultaneously rather than just taking a 20% downgrade when an injury occurs.</p></li><li><p>80% replacement baseline.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Managed Redraft Strategy:</strong> Pursue pure upside and ceiling because the waiver wire exists to patch QB2 and TE2 deficits.</p></li><li><p>16 to 20 rounds.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>6-Point Passing TD Scoring:</strong> In formats awarding 6 points per passing TD, the gap between dual-threat rushing QBs and traditional high-volume pocket passers shrinks significantly, compressing QB tier valuations.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Defense / Special Teams Strategy:</strong> Never be the first manager to draft a defense in competitive drafts; let top-tier defenses (Texans, Seahawks, Broncos, Rams) begin to fall and read the room to scoop value late without triggering early runs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs represents strong standalone value when pushed into Round 5 due to off-field uncertainty, provided managers quickly insulate their roster with stable RB2 depth.</p></li><li><p>Round 5 draft value vs. Round 2-3 ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Juwan Johnson:</strong> Johnson is significantly underpriced relative to his historic underlying metrics, having finished near the top five among TEs in receiving yards last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Rico Dowdle:</strong> Dowdle is preferred over other middle-round RBs like Kenneth Gainwell and Jordan Mason due to projected volume and receiving involvement.</p></li><li><p>RB3 draft range.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Super-Deep Sleepers For 2026 - Part 1</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Super deep sleepers carry low hit rates and generally should not be drafted in standard redraft formats, but identifying under-the-radar backups, rookies, and depth receivers now creates high-leverage early-season waiver wire and deep-league stash targets.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Washington's offensive line struggled heavily against Baltimore's defense in joint practices with several starters sidelined. While Daniels remains draftable, Harris is comfortable ranking him below market at QB7 and suggests using Washington offensive line concerns as a tiebreaker against Commanders players.</p></li><li><p>QB7 rank by Harris.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> Kraft fully participated in joint practices and scored a red zone TD, but he has publicly noted he does not anticipate playing a full-time snap share early in the season.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Trey Benson:</strong> Benson cleared waivers and reverted to injured reserve, officially ending his season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kaelon Black:</strong> With Jordan James recovering from a broken rib that sidelined him for a month, Black has emerged as a key candidate for 49ers backup touches behind Christian McCaffrey. Harris drafts him inside the top 150 as a late-round stash/handcuff, while Seeley prefers monitoring the fluid depth chart rather than spending a 10th-to-11th-round pick.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cyrus Allen:</strong> Allen has drawn praise from Patrick Mahomes and buzz in Chiefs camp; he should not be drafted in standard leagues but belongs on early-season waiver watch lists.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Bell:</strong> Bell is recovering from a December ACL tear and was recently activated for drills. Despite limited early-season involvement, his pre-injury first-round talent makes him an elite IR-spot stash or deep-league monitor in an unsettled Dolphins WR room.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ryan Flournoy:</strong> Flournoy has received strong camp praise in Dallas and sits as the WR3 behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, making him a prime beneficiary if either primary receiver misses time.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR80 in Harris's Almanac.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dontayvion Wicks:</strong> Wicks represents the clear WR3 floor with WR2 upside in Philadelphia if rookie Makai Lemon experiences early-career growing pains or DeVonta Smith gets injured. He is undrafted in standard formats (ADP outside top 200).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>George Holani:</strong> Holani is an undrafted watch-list stash in a volatile Seattle backfield behind Zach Charbonnet, Jadarian Price, and Emanuel Wilson.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Nicholas Singleton:</strong> Singleton is Tennessee's clear RB3 behind impending free agents Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears; an injury or backfield restructuring could open up a late-season timeshare role.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Daniel Jones:</strong> Jones is going outside the top 200 and QB29 in drafts despite being QB7 through Week 13 last season with 7 top-12 weekly finishes in 12 games before his Achilles tear. He is a priority streamer and early-season waiver target if Indianapolis starts hot.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jahan Dotson:</strong> Dotson is operating as Atlanta's clear starting WR2 across from Drake London with rookie Zachariah Branch being slow-played. At an ADP of 342, he presents market inefficiency as an unrostered starter in a functional offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Seth McGowan:</strong> McGowan impressed during joint practices against New England and could surpass DJ Giddens as the primary backup to Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>RB Handcuff Strategy:</strong> Because modern NFL backfields are platoons and clear backup prices are rising (such as Blake Corum or MarShawn Lloyd), managers should generally avoid drafting same-team handcuffs in the middle rounds (rounds 7-8), reserving handcuffs only for elite first-round backs with clear direct backups (e.g., Christian McCaffrey with Kaelon Black, Saquon Barkley with Tank Bigsby, or Jonathan Taylor with Seth McGowan).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Audible</h2><p><em>How Do These Preseason Injuries Reshape Fantasy Draft Strategy for Chase, Henderson, Walker and the Stars Around Them</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Preseason injury ambiguity creates draft-value shifts: maintain draft capital on elite anchors like Ja'Marr Chase, leverage discount windows on Rhamondre Stevenson over an injured TreVeyon Henderson, and monitor early-season slow burns like Tucker Kraft.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ja'Marr Chase:</strong> Fantasy managers should still draft Chase with confidence at the No. 3 overall pick despite minor knee soreness, supported by the stability of Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Henderson undergoing testing on his ankle warrants caution at his fifth-round ADP, creating immense relative draft value for Rhamondre Stevenson in the seventh round as New England's potential Week 1 lead back.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Walker's ankle swelling attributed to his shoe is not an immediate panic trigger, but his physical play style makes Emmett Johnson a crucial handcuff who could inherit three-down duties under Eric Bieniemy.</p></li><li><p>Round 2 ADP for Kenneth Walker.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> Kraft will be on a managed snap count in the first half of the season with heavy blocking duties due to offensive line concerns, making him a mid-to-late-season buy-low candidate rather than a priority draft target over TEs like Kyle Pitts or Dalton Kincaid.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>C.J. Stroud:</strong> Reports that Stroud will use his legs more, combined with tough early shootouts against Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas in the first four weeks, boost his upside.</p></li><li><p>First 4 weeks schedule: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Dallas.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>The Show: Make or Break Areas of Your Draft, Camp News, and More</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft structures can be optimized by targeting stable, high-upside RBs like Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker at the Round 1-2 turn, taking advantage of deep Round 3-5 WR depth, and finding late QB values like Brock Purdy and Jordan Love.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chase Brown &amp; Kenneth Walker:</strong> Target Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker at the Round 1-2 turn over players in shifting environments like De'Von Achane or Omarion Hampton, as Brown offers elite stability and Walker will benefit from light defensive fronts in Kansas City.</p></li><li><p>Chase Brown averaged ~21 PPR PPG with Joe Burrow last season.</p></li><li><p>Chiefs faced the fewest stacked boxes in the NFL last year.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Rhamondre Stevenson is undervalued relative to TreVeyon Henderson after proving elite underlying efficiency and securing the primary workload on a team that made the Super Bowl.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson ranked #1 in rushing yards over expected per rush among qualified RBs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Bowers is viable in Round 2 in shallower leagues or formats starting only 2 WRs where elite TEs provide greater roster leverage, but avoid him in 14-team or 3-WR formats.</p></li><li><p>Expected PPG based on historical ADP is ~14.8 PPG.</p></li><li><p>Scored 15.5 and 14.7 PPG in his two seasons.</p></li><li><p>Needs ~17 PPG to deliver true difference-making value.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brock Purdy &amp; Jordan Love:</strong> Target Brock Purdy (going around QB15) and Jordan Love in the QB2 tier for late-round QB builds rather than paying up for regressing pocket passers like Matthew Stafford.</p></li><li><p>Brock Purdy drafted at QB15 ADP despite consistent top-8 fantasy asset production.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Stafford offers &lt;0.25 rushing fantasy PPG.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Following his lower-leg injury scare, bump Jeanty to the bottom of the Round 2 RB tier, making him an ideal target when starting with Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Drake London:</strong> Michael Penix Jr. starting at QB represents a significant fantasy boost for Drake London compared to Tua Tagovailoa.</p></li><li><p>London with Penix: 31% TPRR, 2.75 YPRR, 0.6 fantasy points per route run.</p></li><li><p>London without Penix (103 routes): 21% TPRR, 1.2 YPRR.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kayshon Boutte &amp; Jaylin Noel:</strong> Following Boutte's trade to the Texans, expect him to play outside in 2-WR sets in an offense running heavier 12 personnel, while Jaylin Noel remains a late-round dart in the slot.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chuba Hubbard:</strong> Despite Jonathon Brooks having higher upside, draft Chuba Hubbard whenever he falls into the Round 10 range due to injury overreaction.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling has produced historically elite preseason efficiency metrics, warranting selection as a top-45 WR inside the top 10 rounds.</p></li><li><p>59% targets per route run rate in preseason.</p></li><li><p>4.95 yards per route run.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>Fantasy vultures: 10 players who are better in real life than fantasy</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Understanding 'real-life football' role players&#8212;such as elite pass-protecting backs, sacrificial field-stretching receivers, and inline blocking TEs&#8212;clarifies the target trees, touch distributions, and offensive ceilings of primary fantasy assets.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs &amp; Detroit Backfield:</strong> Detroit prioritizes a complementary pass-protection/short-yardage back (exemplified by interest in Kareem Hunt) to handle dirty work and goal-line snaps, which may cap Gibbs' short-yardage TD upside despite high overall touch efficiency.</p></li><li><p>Gibbs allowed the highest pressure rate of all RBs in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Allgeier:</strong> Allgeier projects for a steady ~30% touch share in Arizona due to high rushing success rate and pass-blocking reliability, functioning as a high-floor flex option rather than a dynamic pass-catcher.</p></li><li><p>83rd in target rate over the last 3 years among 103 RBs.</p></li><li><p>13th in rushing success rate per snap over the last 3 years.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Coleman mirrors the high-floor, coach-favorite 'Pierre Thomas' archetype in Denver; an elite pass-protecting and reliable back who could produce solid RB2/flex value if J.K. Dobbins misses time, but carries a limited ceiling.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kalif Raymond:</strong> Raymond is an ideal 'sacrificial speed' WR3 who stretches the field and blocks, allowing primary target earners like Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland to soak up high-percentage intermediate targets while Raymond commands under a 10% target share.</p></li><li><p>Career-high 71 targets in 2021 with Detroit.</p></li><li><p>Historical 3.15 YPRR in small sample with Titans, 1.91 and 2.08 with Lions.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Adonai Mitchell:</strong> Mitchell is a high-variance deep-threat X-receiver with elite press-man success but severe zone route-running limitations, making him a boom-or-bust splash play rather than a consistent weekly volume earner.</p></li><li><p>82nd percentile success rate vs. press coverage.</p></li><li><p>87% on-ball alignment on charted snaps.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>LeQuint Allen &amp; Jacksonville Backfield:</strong> Allen operates strictly as a third-down pass protector rather than a receiving threat; fantasy managers should bench secondary Jaguars backs against heavy blitzing schemes where Allen's snap share will spike to 15-20%.</p></li><li><p>47th in snaps on passing plays as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>Caught only 10 passes.</p></li><li><p>Ran a route on only 22% of passing dropbacks.</p></li><li><p>Expected 15-20% snap share on 3rd downs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> Because Jacksonville's WR and TE depth creates a distributed target tree, drafting Trevor Lawrence as the central offensive hub is the optimal fantasy approach to capture the unit's potency.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jauan Jennings:</strong> Jennings serves as an elite blocking power slot to bolster Minnesota's running game and open perimeter space for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison; he will have minimal standalone fantasy value barring injuries.</p></li><li><p>Projected 60%+ offensive snap share.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Cooper Kupp &amp; Jaxon Smith-Njigba:</strong> Kupp's conversion into an interior blocking/underneath receiver locks in Jaxon Smith-Njigba's elite target dominance, keeping JSN above a 30% target share while capping Kupp's receiving ceiling.</p></li><li><p>JSN posted a 35.8% target share.</p></li><li><p>Kupp had historically high ~10% pass-blocking snap rates for a WR with the Rams (2% last year).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tampa Bay Offensive Line &amp; Offense:</strong> Ranked by Nate Tice as the #1 offensive line in the NFL due to elite left-to-right talent and scheme independence, making Baker Mayfield (QB24 ADP) and the entire Bucs offense undervalued in drafts.</p></li><li><p>Buccaneers drafted 21st in aggregate ADP vs. 15th in offensive projections.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Washington Offensive Line &amp; Skill Players:</strong> The Commanders' offensive line is flashing severe red flags following Laremy Tunsil's loss, interior injuries, and preseason mental mistakes, prompting downward ranking adjustments for Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Stefon Diggs.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.26.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[17 episodes, 15 hours + 17 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82626</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82626</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 01:01:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 17 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82626-full-notes">LINK</a></p><h3><strong>Today's Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#129657; <strong>Late injuries shake drafts</strong>: Ankle sprains for Ashton Jeanty and Jeremiyah Love, alongside turf toe for Emeka Egbuka, are pushing drafters toward healthy early-round alternatives. (<em>Fantasy Football Weekly</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>, <em>The Audible</em>)</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>WR priority</strong>: Condensed target trees across the league make drafting three to four high-volume receivers in the first six rounds essential. (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li><li><p>&#9889; <strong>Late QB value</strong>: Waiting on mobile passers like Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, and Bo Nix provides elite weekly ceilings while preserving early capital for skill positions. (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#128640; Colston Loveland (TE, CHI)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Loveland offers legitimate overall TE1 upside as an elite fourth-round draft target in Chicago's revamped offense.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He averaged 12 targets per game over his final four rookie contests and commanded a 35% target rate per route. (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li><li><p>His late-season surge came against injured linebackers, and target competition from Rome Odunze and Luther Burden could limit weekly volume. (<em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#9889; Omarion Hampton (RB, LAC)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Hampton brings top-five RB upside in Mike McDaniel's outside-zone rushing attack.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He produced 15.1 PPR points per game as a rookie with an 80% goal-line carry share and elite tackle evasion. (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li><li><p>Offensive line injuries and McDaniel's tendency to utilize multi-back rotations could create short-term touch volatility. (<em>The Audible</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#128293; Kenneth Walker (RB, KC)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Walker is positioned for an explosive featured workload inside the Chiefs' high-scoring offense.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He led the league in forced missed tackle rate and averaged 23.4 fantasy points per game across three playoff starts. (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li><li><p>His fantasy floor in full-PPR formats remains vulnerable if Kansas City limits his passing-down snaps compared to pure receiving backs. (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; Rome Odunze (WR, CHI)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Odunze provides WR1 upside at a mid-round price point entering his second NFL season.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He commanded a 25% target share and 27 end-zone targets over 29 games while posting WR11 numbers before his rookie injury. (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li><li><p>Chicago's condensed passing tree includes proven target earners Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, which could create weekly target variance. (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#127939; Jaxson Dart (QB, NYG)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Dart offers league-winning rushing equity at a double-digit round draft discount.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He delivered eight top-10 weekly QB finishes in 12 starts last season while averaging over 40 rushing yards per game. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>)</p></li><li><p>His modest 6.7 yards per pass attempt lowers his weekly ceiling in leagues that reward six points per passing TD. (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>)</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#129658; The Ashton Jeanty Injury Discount</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Fantasy analysts disagree on whether Ashton Jeanty's preseason ankle sprain warrants dropping him out of early draft rounds.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> The sprain is minor, making Jeanty an elite value at the late-first or early-second-round turn. (<em>The Audible</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Lingering ankle ambiguity warrants dropping Jeanty down to RB12 or lower in favor of proven, healthy veteran RBs. (<em>Fantasy Football Weekly</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>)</p></li></ul><h3>&#9876;&#65039; Tyler Warren's Target Hierarchy</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Drafters are split on whether Tyler Warren commands elite TE target volume or loses work to veteran additions.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Warren's hybrid alignment and 21% rookie target share position him to lead the Colts across all major receiving categories. (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Keenan Allen's arrival and a training camp groin issue will cap Warren's short-area targets and scoring ceiling. (<em>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.26.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[17 episodes, 15 hours + 17 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82626-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82626-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:29:18 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>17 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>15 hours and 17 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Draft Strategy Guide | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-26-26</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Greg Cosell: Browns name Deshaun Watson QB1 &amp; Texans trade for Kayshon Boutte</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>The HOTTEST Takes for the 2026 Fantasy Football Season | ESPN Fantasy</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>The Ultimate Guide to CRUSHING your Fantasy Draft | Fantasy Focus</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>Don't Draft a QB Before Watching This!</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>7 High Upside Players to Target with RotoPat</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>Matthew Berry's 2026 Draft Day Manifesto: The 7 Habits Of Highly Effective Drafters</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>FFT Express - Jamey Eisenberg&#8217;s 2026 All-Breakout Team! 7 Fantasy Football Players Ready to Explode! (FFT Express)</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Players We Keep Drafting! Pickens, Herbert, Waddle, Likely &amp; More! (08/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Weekly</strong>: <em>Love Thy Nabers</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Stack Attack! + High Risk Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/25</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>The 2026 &#8220;My Guys&#8221; Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/26</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Audible</strong>: <em>Fantasy Football's Quietest Values: Buy Before Everyone Notices | On The Hotseat</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Do We Have It All Wrong?</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</strong>: <em>The 2026 Do Not Draft List</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</strong>: <em>The 10 Players We Disagree on Most This Fantasy Season</em> (August 26)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>12 fantasy breakout candidates for 2026</em> (August 26)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Draft Strategy Guide | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-26-26</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft with tactical flexibility by securing elite WR depth across rounds 1 through 6, pairing an early anchor RB with high-upside late backfield values, and waiting for QB and TE value tiers unless elite assets fall at steep discounts.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>QB Draft Strategy:</strong> Target high-upside QBs in round 6 (Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts) after establishing a baseline of RBs and WRs, or wait until rounds 9-11 for value options like Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Josh Allen holds a massive 17-point 3D value lead over Lamar Jackson as the clear overall QB1, becoming exceptionally valuable in shallow 8-team leagues or non-PPR/half-PPR formats where pass-catcher scoring is reduced.</p></li><li><p>Considered from mid-to-late round 3 in standard 12-team leagues.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Early-Round RBs:</strong> Draft an anchor RB in rounds 1-3 (such as Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, or Breece Hall) to avoid the fragile middle-round RB tier.</p></li><li><p>Target Josh Jacobs or Breece Hall as late as rounds 3-4.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Swift serves as a strong, high-floor mid-round target in rounds 4-5 with expanded early-season opportunity while backfield competition Kyle Monangai recovers from a hyperextended knee.</p></li><li><p>Finished as RB17 PPG in the second half of the season with expanded competition.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ambiguous Backfield Targets:</strong> Target ambiguous backfield committee members like Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jordan Mason in rounds 9-11 for standalone RB3/flex rushing volume and contingent top-25 upside if lead backs miss time.</p></li><li><p>ADPs in round 9 to rounds 10-11.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>WR Roster Construction:</strong> Due to reduced three-WR sets league-wide and more condensed target trees, prioritize securing 3 to 4 high-target WRs across the first 5 to 6 rounds (such as Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Davante Adams, Rome Odunze).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Late-Round WRs:</strong> In managed redraft formats, reserve bench spots strictly for WRs with viable paths to finish top-2 in team targets (such as KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, Dontayvion Wicks, Rashid Shaheed) rather than low-ceiling veterans.</p></li><li><p>Target rounds: 13-14+.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Loveland represents the optimal high-end TE selection in round 4, offering significant positional advantage without the steep early draft capital required for the very top tier.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Pairing Strategy:</strong> If missing out on middle-round TEs, target George Kittle (round 9, off PUP) or Dalton Kincaid (rounds 10-11) and pair them with early-season target earners like Juwan Johnson or Dalton Schultz who benefit from teammate injuries.</p></li><li><p>Juwan Johnson: top-12 fantasy TE finish last season as #2 target.</p></li><li><p>Dalton Schultz: top-2 Texans target in 3 consecutive seasons.</p></li><li><p>Dallas Goedert: TE14 ADP with top-12 PPR PPG history since year 3.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Greg Cosell: Browns name Deshaun Watson QB1 &amp; Texans trade for Kayshon Boutte</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> QB processing speed and offensive scheme context drastically alter on-field execution, from Deshaun Watson's struggles with pocket timing in Cleveland to how under-center, play-action heavy schemes elevate offensive line pass protection.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Deshaun Watson:</strong> Named starting QB for the Browns, but film shows he continues to struggle with slow processing, anticipation, and field vision, forcing him to rely heavily on second-reaction scrambles.</p></li><li><p>Ranked bottom 5 among roughly 40-46 qualifying NFL QBs by advanced metrics according to Tucker.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kayshon Boutte:</strong> Acquired by the Texans via trade (for a seventh-round pick and safety Jaylen Reed) to serve as a solid complementary No. 2 receiver on dig routes and deep passes opposite true boundary X Nico Collins following Jaden Higgins' season-ending injury.</p></li><li><p>Traded for a 7th-round pick and safety Jaylen Reed.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Cincinnati &amp; Philadelphia:</strong> Both offenses are shifting to significantly higher rates of under-center alignments and play-action fakes to slow defensive line pass rushers and force second-level linebackers into conflict.</p></li><li><p>Play-action run fakes freeze pass rushers for roughly 1.5 seconds.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike McGlinchey:</strong> Benefits from Sean Payton's rhythm and quick-passing offense in Denver, which minimizes deep vertical sets against elite edge rushers and maximizes his size in quick-set protections.</p></li><li><p>Broncos offense throws under 10 yards from the line of scrimmage at one of the highest rates in the NFL.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>NFL Offensive Line Transactions:</strong> The Commanders signed offensive tackle D.J. Humphries to add depth after losing Laremy Tunsil; the Cardinals signed center Hjalte Froholdt to a two-year extension; and the Chiefs acquired offensive lineman Joshua Ezeudu from the Giants for a seventh-round draft pick.</p></li><li><p>7th-round pick traded for Ezeudu.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>The HOTTEST Takes for the 2026 Fantasy Football Season | ESPN Fantasy</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Historical workload regression and changing offensive dynamics make early-round RBs like Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor, along with QB Jalen Hurts, prime candidates to underperform draft capital, while targeted volume creates massive upside for pass catchers like Colston Loveland, George Kittle, and Ladd McConkey.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Michael Pittman Jr.:</strong> Target Pittman at his 10th-round ADP as a value pick with top-25 WR upside, benefiting as a short-area target from Aaron Rodgers' low average depth of target (5.8 air yards per attempt) and tough coverage matchups.</p></li><li><p>Aaron Rodgers averaged 5.8 air yards per attempt (33rd in NFL).</p></li><li><p>Steelers have 4th hardest WR strength of schedule and 10th hardest QB strength of schedule.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Target Loveland as a candidate to finish as the overall TE1 due to projected TD regression for Trey McBride and potential sophomore setbacks for Brock Bowers.</p></li><li><p>Finished as TE2 from Weeks 9 to 18.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 12 targets, 7 catches, and 94.5 receiving yards per game over his final 4 games (including playoffs).</p></li><li><p>Trey McBride scored 3 TDs in 2024 and 11 in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> Fade McCaffrey at early first-round cost; coming off 450 total touches and entering his age-30 season, his rushing efficiency has declined, making a finish outside the top-10 RBs likely.</p></li><li><p>Career-low 3.9 yards per carry.</p></li><li><p>3rd career season with 400+ touches.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonathan Taylor:</strong> Avoid drafting Taylor as a top-5 RB, as historical trends show extreme drop-offs in efficiency and health for backs with consecutive 300+ carry seasons.</p></li><li><p>Projected to finish outside the top-12 fantasy RBs.</p></li><li><p>Over 15 years of data, only 6 of 13 RBs with back-to-back 300-carry seasons reached 1,000 yards the next year, and only 4 played every game.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Kittle possesses overall TE1 upside on a points-per-game basis as the primary receiving focal point with aging/inexperienced pass-catching competition in San Francisco.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game from Weeks 8 through 18 (TE1 over that span).</p></li><li><p>Has 7 career top-6 TE finishes.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Draft Brooks expecting him to take over the Carolina backfield as the clear RB1 early in the season due to limited backfield competition and Chuba Hubbard's hamstring injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Isiah Pacheco:</strong> Target Pacheco for goal-line TD equity, projecting him to score more rushing TDs than Breece Hall.</p></li><li><p>Breece Hall has never exceeded 5 rushing TDs in a season (currently projected for 8 by Mike Clay).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> Fade Jalen Hurts as an elite QB option; declining per-game production, loss of A.J. Brown, and lowered tush-push efficiency push him outside the top-10 fantasy QBs.</p></li><li><p>Finished as QB8 last year.</p></li><li><p>Points per game fell from 25.0 (2022) to 21.0 (2023-2024) to 18.7 (last year).</p></li><li><p>Converted under 63% of tush-push attempts.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> Draft McConkey ahead of older veteran WRs like Davante Adams, viewing him as a strong candidate for a major breakout in the Chargers offense.</p></li><li><p>Finished as WR13 in his rookie year.</p></li><li><p>Projected top-10 WR upside.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>All-Flex / Multi-Flex Draft Strategy:</strong> In leagues featuring six flex spots instead of mandatory RB starting slots, heavily draft WRs to capitalize on floor and ceiling while avoiding RB injury volatility.</p></li><li><p>10-team snake format with 6 flex starting positions.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>The Ultimate Guide to CRUSHING your Fantasy Draft | Fantasy Focus</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafting elite RBs early and waiting on QB allows fantasy managers to secure high-upside league winners like Jaxson Dart and Bo Nix in the middle-to-late rounds while stockpiling WR depth.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Target Achane in early Round 2 despite team offensive concerns, given his RB2 standing in yards per touch (6.0), top explosive rating, and upgraded run-blocking additions (Kadyn Proctor and Will Kacmarek).</p></li><li><p>No. 10 overall player on Clay's board.</p></li><li><p>3,057 rushing yards over three seasons on 89 fewer carries than Christian McCaffrey.</p></li><li><p>23% of carries faced loaded boxes last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Draft Love at a Round 3 discount following a minor high-ankle sprain, leveraging historical trends that top-12 drafted rookie RBs consistently produce top-12 fantasy seasons.</p></li><li><p>9 of the last 9 RBs drafted in the NFL top 12 finished as top-12 fantasy RBs as rookies.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Garrett Wilson vs. Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Garrett Wilson represents value in Round 4 as a clear target hog, though concerns exist about his TD ceiling with Geno Smith compared to Emeka Egbuka's explosive upside.</p></li><li><p>Wilson has 18 career TDs over four seasons (career-high 7).</p></li><li><p>Wilson career-high 1,105 receiving yards, averaging under 12 yards per catch.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Target Warren in Round 5 as a high-upside TE who commands goal-line rush work and a high target share with Michael Pittman Jr. departed.</p></li><li><p>21% target share last season.</p></li><li><p>3 goal-line carries and 1 rushing TD in rookie season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Rome Odunze:</strong> Odunze possesses WR1 upside and is a primary Round 6 draft priority after showcasing high-ceiling production early in his rookie season.</p></li><li><p>5 TDs and 15+ fantasy points in 4 consecutive games to start last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Courtland Sutton:</strong> Target Sutton in Round 7 due to elite end-zone usage and strong established rapport with Bo Nix, unaffected significantly by Jalen Waddle's arrival.</p></li><li><p>Top 20 WR in back-to-back seasons with 1,000 yards.</p></li><li><p>Top 10 in end-zone targets for 4 consecutive seasons (WR5 in category last year).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Michael Pittman Jr.:</strong> Pittman serves as a high-floor WR3 target in Round 8 in Pittsburgh catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.</p></li><li><p>800+ receiving yards in 5 of 6 career seasons.</p></li><li><p>Top-20 fantasy WR in 4 of 6 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Wait on QB and select Dart in Round 9 as a dual-threat breakout candidate with QB1 overall upside.</p></li><li><p>8 top-10 QB weekly finishes in 12 starts last season (5th-most among QBs).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Bo Nix &amp; Brock Purdy:</strong> Pair Dart with Bo Nix or Brock Purdy in Round 10 for cheap, elite QB production while stacking other positions early.</p></li><li><p>Nix finished as QB7 in each of his first two NFL seasons.</p></li><li><p>Purdy finished top 10 in fantasy PPG for 3 consecutive seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Take a late-round flier on Golden in Round 11 as a former first-round speedster set to benefit from a condensed Packers target tree.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Draft Stribling in Round 12 as a rising rookie WR with immediate starting potential in San Francisco's offense.</p></li><li><p>33rd overall pick in NFL Draft.</p></li><li><p>15 catches in 2 preseason games.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>Don't Draft a QB Before Watching This!</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> In single-QB 12-team standard scoring leagues, elite draft capital is better spent on RBs and WRs because drafting late-round mobile QBs provides comparable top-end ceiling at a fraction of the draft cost.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Ranked as overall QB1, but lands in C/D tier for 12-team 1QB redraft leagues due to round 3 draft cost; Barrett is only comfortable taking him in round 5.</p></li><li><p>Finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st in fantasy points per game over last 6 seasons.</p></li><li><p>6 consecutive seasons of 39+ total TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Lamar Jackson:</strong> Ranked as QB2 but placed in D tier due to opportunity cost; his fantasy dominance depends entirely on hypermobility, which cratered to Aaron Rodgers/Bryce Young level efficiency after a lower-body injury.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 28 FPG before injury in 2025 (over 3 FPG more than next closest).</p></li><li><p>Led all QBs in FPG in 2024 by over 2 FPG over Josh Allen.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Ranked QB3 (D tier); possesses elite per-game upside matching Josh Allen when healthy, but durability remains a significant concern.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 23.7 FPG in healthy games over last 2 years (tied with Josh Allen).</p></li><li><p>Healthy in only 41% of Washington's games over that span.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> Ranked QB4 (B tier); represents the highest-value early QB pick relative to ADP (QB6 on Sleeper/Yahoo, QB5 on ESPN) due to guaranteed rushing TD floor and potential offensive scheme bounce-back.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 19.3 FPG (QB7) in a career-worst year.</p></li><li><p>Suffered a 41% drop-off in rushing fantasy points per game in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Drake Maye:</strong> Ranked QB5 (C tier); could see increased passing volume in more competitive game scripts despite a tougher schedule, bolstered by upgraded receiver personnel.</p></li><li><p>Finished QB2 in FPG last season.</p></li><li><p>Led all QBs in passing yards per game in the 1st half of games.</p></li><li><p>Top 3 in fantasy points per dropback.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Joe Burrow:</strong> Ranked QB6 (F tier); vastly overpriced at ADP (QB4 on Sleeper, QB5 on Yahoo) with no rushing upside, comparable production to late-round passers, and a high injury risk.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 1.5 fewer FPG than Baker Mayfield in 2023, 0.2 more in 2024, and 0.6 more in 2025.</p></li><li><p>Brock Purdy averaged more FPG over the last 3 years and is drafted 7+ rounds later.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Ranked QB7 (S tier on Yahoo, A/S tier on Sleeper/ESPN); elite target due to heavy rushing equity and an upgraded target core featuring Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 20.1 fantasy points per start (5th all-time by a rookie QB).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 22.5 FPG per start excluding the 13-pass Minnesota game.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> Ranked QB8 (S tier); exceptional value under Liam Coen with underrated rushing production and historical end-of-season passing volume.</p></li><li><p>Only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have more rushing TDs over the last 4 years.</p></li><li><p>Has 7 more rushing TDs than Lamar Jackson over the last 4 years.</p></li><li><p>Overall fantasy QB1 over the final 14, 7, and 4 weeks of the 2025 season.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 25+ rushing yards per game and scored 9 rushing TDs over final 13 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> Ranked QB9 (D tier); downgraded by Whitefield due to high self-induced sack rates, poor stickiness in predictive metrics, and a run-heavy Mike McDaniel/Jim Harbaugh offensive environment.</p></li><li><p>5th-lowest time to pressure among QBs with 200+ dropbacks, but ranked top-3 in QB-induced pressure and #2 in sacks taken that were his own fault.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Dak Prescott:</strong> Ranked QB10 in standard scoring; provides a rock-solid pocket passing floor but lacks the rushing upside to deliver a championship-winning top-3 finish.</p></li><li><p>FPG finishes since 2019: QB3, QB1, QB9, QB6, QB4, QB9.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Ranked QB11 (D/F tier at cost); draft cost is too high (QB7 on Sleeper/Yahoo) despite pairing with Ben Johnson, given bottom-tier accuracy metrics.</p></li><li><p>Finished QB8 by FPG despite ranking bottom-6 in every accuracy metric.</p></li><li><p>Fastest QB by GPS tracking last year.</p></li><li><p>Drafted QB7 on Sleeper/Yahoo vs QB13 on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Malik Willis:</strong> Designated as Scott Barrett's primary 'Exodia' QB target of the season (S tier); massive historical rushing production makes him a league-winning upside target at almost zero draft cost.</p></li><li><p>Posted 0.72 fantasy points per dropback with Green Bay (&gt;30% higher than Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 23.6 fantasy points per start and 64.3 rushing yards per 4 quarters.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kyler Murray:</strong> Ranked QB13 (S tier); priced at an extreme discount (QB19 on Sleeper) in a Kevin O'Connell offensive scheme that historically produces massive passing numbers.</p></li><li><p>Since 2019, only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes average more FPG.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brock Purdy:</strong> Ranked QB14 (C tier); elite real-life efficiency metrics, but 4-pt passing TD format and lack of rushing volume limit his fantasy ceiling.</p></li><li><p>#1 in EPA per dropback and CPOE over the last 3 years.</p></li><li><p>49ers averaged 0.25 EPA per play when Purdy, McCaffrey, Kittle, and Trent Williams shared the field over the last 2 years.</p></li><li><p>Averaged ~38 FPG during the fantasy playoffs last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Patrick Mahomes:</strong> Ranked QB15 (D/F tier); low fantasy appeal coming off an ACL tear with Kansas City likely shifting to a run-heavy approach featuring Kenneth Walker.</p></li><li><p>2025 fantasy spike was driven by rushing at 2x his prior career-high rate, unlikely to repeat post-ACL.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Ranked QB16 (D tier); high dropback volume in Sean Payton's system provides a mid-range QB1 floor, but poor passing efficiency limits championship-winning upside.</p></li><li><p>Led the NFL in total dropbacks last season.</p></li><li><p>Produced QB8/QB9 numbers by fantasy points per start despite poor catchable throw rate and CPOE.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>7 High Upside Players to Target with RotoPat</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-floor dual-threat and focal-point players at discounted mid-round ADPs&#8212;such as Jaxson Dart, Jaylen Waddle, and Isaiah Likely&#8212;where downside risk is already baked in and theoretical upside remains high.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Gainwell:</strong> Draft Gainwell over Jonathon Brooks and Ja'Cory Croskey-Merritt in the middle rounds due to team financial commitment ($14M), between-the-tackles usage in camp, and passing-down involvement while Bucky Irving is limited in receiving work.</p></li><li><p>73 receptions in previous season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Alec Pierce:</strong> Treat Pierce as a top-40 seasonal WR rather than attempting to guess his boom-or-bust weeks, as he rarely earns more than 5-6 targets per game.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL in yards per reception each of the last two seasons (over 20 YPC).</p></li><li><p>18% target share in previous year (51st among WRs).</p></li><li><p>Averaged under 6 targets and under 3 receptions per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenyon Sadiq:</strong> Do not draft Sadiq in standard seasonal redraft leagues following team reports that his early-season role will be scaled back.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Target Dart near his Round 10 ADP (QB11-QB15 range) for an insulated rushing floor, provided leagues do not heavily penalize QB rushing by using 6-point passing TDs.</p></li><li><p>ADP of 96.9 overall (Round 10, QB11/12).</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry ranking: 87 overall.</p></li><li><p>QB6 on a per-game basis from Week 4 onward last year.</p></li><li><p>Over 40 rushing yards per game.</p></li><li><p>7 games with 20+ fantasy points and top-10 QB finish in 8 of 12 starts.</p></li><li><p>6.7 yards per pass attempt.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Quinshon Judkins:</strong> Draft Judkins as a high-floor backend RB2 in an offense forced into heavy rushing volume regardless of game script.</p></li><li><p>13.5% target share over final 4 games last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Target Waddle above ADP consensus as the central yards-after-catch weapon in Sean Payton's offense.</p></li><li><p>Berry ranking: WR18 / 37 overall (vs. ADP WR21 / 47 overall).</p></li><li><p>Broncos rank 6th in WR fantasy points over the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> Draft Williams inside the top 25 WRs, capitalizing on a floor higher than typical field-stretchers combined with multi-touchdown weekly upside.</p></li><li><p>Berry ranking: WR25 / 54 overall (vs. ADP 60 overall).</p></li><li><p>7 top-12 WR weekly finishes last season (tied 4th-most).</p></li><li><p>2nd among WRs in fantasy points per target over past two years (min. 100 targets).</p></li><li><p>Never eclipsed a 20% single-season target share.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rome Odunze:</strong> Select Odunze at his Round 7 ADP as a high-upside WR3 candidate in an ascending Caleb Williams passing offense.</p></li><li><p>27 end zone targets in 29 career games (~40% of team end zone targets over two years).</p></li><li><p>WR11 in PPG across Weeks 1-8 last season with a 25% target share prior to injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Quentin Johnston:</strong> Draft Johnston above consensus ADP as a high-touchdown boundary receiver tied to Justin Herbert.</p></li><li><p>Berry ranking: 1 round ahead of market consensus.</p></li><li><p>One of five WRs with 8+ receiving TDs in each of the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>Year-over-year increases in yards per target.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Isaiah Likely:</strong> Target Likely in the TE8-TE14 range as a priority late TE candidate who could operate as the secondary target in the Giants passing game.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>Matthew Berry's 2026 Draft Day Manifesto: The 7 Habits Of Highly Effective Drafters</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft success relies on preparing for room inefficiencies, understanding positional opportunity cost rather than rigid rankings, and constructing rosters built for weekly upside and adaptable in-season flexibility.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>QB Draft Strategy:</strong> Josh Allen sits alone as the top QB tier, but drafting him in early rounds carries excessive opportunity cost over Tier 2 options (Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts in Rounds 5-6) or the deep QB7-QB15 tier (Caleb Williams to Bo Nix).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>RB Strategy &amp; Anchor RB:</strong> Target anchor/hero RBs from the top 12-14 rankings in the first three rounds for stability, then prioritize high-value touches (receptions and goal-line attempts) over between-the-20s carries in later rounds.</p></li><li><p>Recommend grabbing two top RBs within the first three picks.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> DeVonta Smith is Matthew Berry's designated 2026 fantasy 'Ride or Die' target, representing high value in Round 3 before anticipated ADP inflation.</p></li><li><p>Projected late-second-round ADP rise.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Strategy:</strong> Rather than spending late Round 2 capital on Brock Bowers or Trey McBride, draft Colston Loveland in Round 4 or Tyler Warren in Rounds 4-5, or target Tucker Kraft as the TE7-TE8 off the board.</p></li><li><p>6 of top 7 TEs are age 25 or younger.</p></li><li><p>Kraft targeted as TE7 or TE8.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Bench Roster Construction:</strong> Bench spots should be reserved for high-ceiling spike-week options and elite contingent insurance backs rather than low-ceiling, high-floor producers whose points can be replaced off waivers.</p></li><li><p>Avoid low-ceiling floor plays like historical James White profiles on benches.</p></li><li><p>Prioritize insurance backups (Brian Robinson, Blake Corum, Isiah Pacheco, Ray Davis, Tank Bigsby).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Platform ADP Inefficiencies:</strong> Exploit massive ADP gaps between host sites (such as ESPN vs Yahoo) to capture market discounts on players like Justin Herbert, Chase Brown, Tucker Kraft, and Dalton Kincaid.</p></li><li><p>Michael Pittman: ESPN 87 vs Yahoo 121 (~40-pick gap).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>FFT Express - Jamey Eisenberg&#8217;s 2026 All-Breakout Team! 7 Fantasy Football Players Ready to Explode! (FFT Express)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Targeting players entering favorable scheme changes, vacated target situations, or returning from discounted injury situations offers top-tier ceiling across early and middle draft rounds.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> Draft Lawrence as a potential top-five fantasy QB breakout in Liam Coen's system with improved pass-catching weapons and realistic rushing upside of 400 yards and 4-5 rushing TDs.</p></li><li><p>Averaged over 30 fantasy points per game in his final seven games last season (including playoffs).</p></li><li><p>Ranked ahead of Caleb Williams and Jaxson Dart by Jamie Eisenberg.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kenneth Walker III:</strong> Target Walker in the early part of Round 2 as an explosive lead back in the Chiefs offense with projected reception volume around 50 catches.</p></li><li><p>Averaged more PPR points per game in the NFL playoffs than Christian McCaffrey did for the regular season.</p></li><li><p>Was on pace for 71 receptions in 2024 across 11 games; projected around 50 receptions.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Draft Hampton in the early part of Round 2 due to offensive tackle health (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater) and Mike McDaniel's history of generating top-five RB fantasy production.</p></li><li><p>Offense averaged a TD better per game when Joe Alt played (6 games).</p></li><li><p>Early Round 2 target with top-5 RB upside.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> Expect Smith to push for top-10 fantasy WR production as Jalen Hurts' clear top target with A.J. Brown gone in Sean Mannion's offense.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 16 PPR points per game and over 9 targets per game in the three games A.J. Brown missed over the last two years.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Capitalize on Burden's Round 4 draft discount caused by a groin injury, as he steps into vacated targets in a high-scoring Ben Johnson offense.</p></li><li><p>85 vacated targets available without DJ Moore on the field.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Isaiah Likely:</strong> Target Likely late in drafts as a high-upside TE who should operate as the No. 2 target in the Giants offense for Jaxson Dart.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 12 PPR points per game in nine career games with at least six targets, scoring 12+ PPR points in eight of those games.</p></li><li><p>Theo Johnson averaged ~10 PPR points per game in 12 starts with Jaxson Dart.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Draft Egbuka at his depressed Round 4 cost as a high-upside flex breakout who projects as the Buccaneers' most productive receiver when healthy.</p></li><li><p>Fell from Round 3 to Round 4 ADP due to a toe injury.</p></li><li><p>Averaged over 20 PPR points per game in the first five games of his rookie season.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Players We Keep Drafting! Pickens, Herbert, Waddle, Likely &amp; More! (08/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-volume passing offenses like Dallas and Chicago for elite receiver and TE combinations, while capitalizing on ADP discounts created by training camp injury news across RBs and receivers.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Sam LaPorta:</strong> LaPorta has fallen to an attractive ADP value (TE6 to TE8, around pick 99 on high-stakes drafts), making him a strong target around Round 7 despite preseason hip concerns and target competition with Jameson Williams.</p></li><li><p>TE1 overall finish as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 5.4 targets per game over a 9-game stretch last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>CeeDee Lamb:</strong> Lamb is a prime late-Round 1 target (picks 8-12) in full PPR formats, with high target volume and positive TD regression expected after scoring only 3 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 16.4 PPR PPG, 10.9 non-PPR PPG, and 9.2 targets per game in Weeks 11-15 and 17.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>George Pickens:</strong> Pickens is worth a Round 2 draft pick because Dallas' pass-heavy offense under Brian Schottenheimer has enough play volume (1,100+ plays and 618 pass attempts per year) to support two top-12 fantasy WRs.</p></li><li><p>Projected for up to 300 combined targets with CeeDee Lamb.</p></li><li><p>Target per route run rate was 22.6% overall and ~24% after Week 2.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Swift is a strong value in Rounds 4-5 as an RB2 with top-10 upside while Kyle Monangai deals with an injury.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 13.9 PPR PPG over the final 11 games last year (RB18 pace).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Loveland is a top TE target at the late Round 3 turn, offering a safe floor of ~7 targets per game and ceiling games of 10+ targets as a primary matchup weapon in Chicago's passing game.</p></li><li><p>Averaged ~12 PPR PPG, 7+ non-PPR PPG, and 7.3 targets per game in Weeks 10-13 and playoffs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brock Purdy:</strong> Purdy is undervalued at QB12 ADP and should be targeted around QB8 due to elite per-game efficiency and sneaky rushing production.</p></li><li><p>QB1 per game through Week 17 last season.</p></li><li><p>QB4 per game over the last three seasons.</p></li><li><p>17-game rushing pace of ~360 yards and 5.5 rushing TDs over the last two seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Walker is a top-15 overall draft pick as the Chiefs' clear lead back with high TD equity in an Andy Reid offense.</p></li><li><p>Outscored Christian McCaffrey in points per game during a 4-game playoff stretch as the featured back.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Achane represents elite floor and ceiling value at the late Round 1/early Round 2 turn because of heavy pass-catching involvement in joint practices and games.</p></li><li><p>Worst season finish over past two years was 17.6 full PPR PPG.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> Washington is dominating Jacksonville's first-team red zone and intermediate routes in camp, making him a priority target in Round 6 of full PPR drafts over Christian Watson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Brian Thomas Jr.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 6.3 targets per game overall last year.</p></li><li><p>Projected for locked-in ~7 targets per game role.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Waddle is significantly underpriced at his Round 5 ADP and should be drafted in Rounds 3-4 as Sean Payton's focal field-stretching receiver in Denver.</p></li><li><p>Played at least 14 games every year of career.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Godwin:</strong> Godwin represents a reliable Round 6 target who gains substantial fantasy floor and ceiling by returning to his primary slot role in Tampa Bay.</p></li><li><p>Top-17 WR per game in five career seasons.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Weekly</h2><p><em>Love Thy Nabers</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Navigating late-summer injury uncertainty requires balancing draft cost against immediate early-season availability, favoring healthy WR and RB alternatives in early rounds while exploiting extreme ADP dips on high-ceiling options and backup contingencies in later rounds.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> Nacua is dealing with a psoas core muscle issue and off-field noise at WR2 / ADP 5. Laghezza remains willing to draft him around pick 4 due to the Rams' tendency to rest players and his massive ceiling, whereas Trowbridge prefers Amon-Ra St. Brown over Nacua to avoid early and mid-season injury risk.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty is dropping down to ADP 19 due to a low ankle sprain with ambiguous coaching updates. Trowbridge is aggressively pivoting away from Jeanty to healthy alternatives like Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, while Mike Washington becomes an appealing late-round target around round 16.</p></li><li><p>RB12.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malik Nabers:</strong> Nabers' ADP has risen into round 2. Laghezza is willing to draft him in the second round immediately after Nico Collins, while Trowbridge fades Nabers at his Round 2 cost due to team environment and injury risk, favoring Drake London, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, and Tee Higgins over him.</p></li><li><p>Round 3 to Round 5 prior cost.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jeremiyah Love &amp; Tyler Allgeier:</strong> Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain putting Week 1 in doubt, making his pick 33 ADP too expensive to stomach. Tyler Allgeier is highlighted as a high-value, late-round smash pick who offers strong standalone early-season workload and goal-line utility.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Egbuka is slipping to ADP 41 (WR19) with a turf toe injury. Laghezza is pivoting to alternatives like Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey, and Garrett Wilson. Trowbridge prefers Jaylen Waddle and Tetairoa McMillan over Egbuka, though he still ranks Egbuka ahead of Davante Adams and Luther Burden.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> With Luke Musgrave on PUP, Kraft's ADP has surged into the early 60s (TE5). Laghezza fades Kraft at this elevated price to draft WRs, whereas Trowbridge remains high on Kraft's explosive profile, recommending pairing him with a late-round backup TE like Greg Dulcich.</p></li><li><p>Pick ~65 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Previously pick 80+.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Activated from the PUP list, Kittle carries a consensus ADP around 88 (TE9). San Francisco will signal his Week 1 availability by whether he travels for the international game; Trowbridge views him as a discounted elite ceiling option who should be paired with a late-round TE.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Alec Pierce:</strong> Despite concerning ankle practice tape, Pierce's ADP has cratered from pick 104 down to pick 135. With Indianapolis pass-catchers facing attrition, both hosts endorse taking a flyer on Pierce once he falls past pick 125.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Patrick Mahomes:</strong> Mahomes sits at QB15 (ADP ~115). Laghezza fades him entirely due to supporting cast concerns and a potentially run-heavy game plan. Trowbridge considers Mahomes an elite value rebound candidate under returning offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, advising drafters to secure a cheap late-round backup like Sam Darnold for early insurance.</p></li><li><p>Over 20 FPPG last season.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Stack Attack! + High Risk Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/25</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Late-round draft strategy should prioritize high-upside rookies and potential league-winners in ambiguous backfields/receiving rooms rather than low-ceiling veteran compilers, while high-upside QB/WR stacks provide significant draft value.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Expect Allen to function as Indianapolis's primary target early in the season with top-24 PPR WR upside over the first month, though his volume may dip once Alec Pierce returns.</p></li><li><p>ADP in round 14 range.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> Downs's fantasy value takes a severe hit with Keenan Allen signing, as Downs is unlikely to see significant work in two-wide receiver sets.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ja'Kobi Lane:</strong> With Rashod Bateman facing a possible six-game suspension following NFL review and strong training camp buzz, Lane presents significant late-round upside in Baltimore's offense.</p></li><li><p>ADP climbed 1-2 rounds.</p></li><li><p>3rd-round draft pick.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mike Washington Jr.:</strong> Washington is an ideal late-round target for Zero-RB builds to capitalize on Ashton Jeanty's ankle injury and potential early-season committee share.</p></li><li><p>Ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at 6'1", 220 lbs.</p></li><li><p>Projected for 35-40% rushing share if Jeanty is limited.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Romeo Doubs:</strong> Doubs is undervalued as the potential WR2/big-slot receiver in New England after finishing second among pass-catchers in camp receptions from Drake Maye.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo:</strong> Choose Skattebo in the 9th round over Quinshon Judkins in the 16th round due to Skattebo's pass-catching floor and weak backfield competition.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Trading Quinshon Judkins for Stevenson is defensible based on New England's offensive upside and Stevenson's historical efficiency.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson averaged 11.6 PPG vs Judkins's 11.2 PPG last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Pairing Josh Allen with Dalton Kincaid in the middle rounds is preferred over forcing a DJ Moore stack in the late 5th/early 6th round.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Dart and Malik Nabers represent a high-upside draft stack that can significantly outperform ADP if Nabers returns to pre-injury form and Dart operates as a fantasy starter.</p></li><li><p>Nabers at round 2/3 turn, Dart around round 9-10.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Nix stacked with Jaylen Waddle offers great late-round upside given Nix's near-free draft cost.</p></li><li><p>Nix available in late 10th round or later.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Justin Jefferson:</strong> If drafting Jefferson in the first round, take a flyer on Kyler Murray with your final pick to secure a high-ceiling QB/WR stack at virtually no extra cost.</p></li><li><p>Murray is nearly free/undrafted in 1QB leagues.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>The 2026 &#8220;My Guys&#8221; Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/26</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-upside players with elite underlying metrics, expanded roles, or coaching upgrades who are currently underpriced in drafts&#8212;including Colston Loveland, Garrett Wilson, De'Zhaun Stribling, Kenneth Walker, Carnell Tate, Caleb Williams, Christian Watson, Omarion Hampton, and Ladd McConkey.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Loveland is poised for a massive year-two breakout in Ben Johnson's offense with legitimate TE1 overall upside; draft him as an elite positional advantage in the 4th round.</p></li><li><p>49 targets over final 4 games of rookie year.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on 35% of routes over final 4 games.</p></li><li><p>7 red zone targets over that stretch.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Wilson is being drafted at his absolute floor around WR20-22 despite posting elite target shares every season; Geno Smith's arrival provides a significant QB upgrade.</p></li><li><p>4th to 5th round ADP (WR20-22).</p></li><li><p>28% career target share through four seasons.</p></li><li><p>30% target share in 7 games last season.</p></li><li><p>WR5 before injury last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling has locked down an extensive early role in Kyle Shanahan's offense amidst injuries to other 49ers pass catchers, offering immense rookie upside at a double-digit round price.</p></li><li><p>10th to 11th round ADP.</p></li><li><p>33rd overall NFL draft pick.</p></li><li><p>4.36 combine 40-yard dash.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Walker brings overall RB2 upside in a high-powered Chiefs offense where he dominates high-value explosive touches and forced missed tackles.</p></li><li><p>3-year, $45M contract with 5th-highest full guarantee among RBs.</p></li><li><p>No. 1 among RBs in forced missed tackle rate.</p></li><li><p>15% explosive rush rate (3rd best among RBs).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 23.4 fantasy PPG across 3 playoff games (25 touches/game).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Drafted 4th overall and paired with play-caller Brian Daboll, Tate offers top-15 rookie WR upside at a modest 7th-round cost.</p></li><li><p>7th round ADP (WR29-30).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> With improved offensive line protection, Ben Johnson's scheme, 15 pounds shed, and rushing equity, Williams represents a smash QB1 pick in round 7/8.</p></li><li><p>Bears offense jumped from 28th to 9th in PPG in year one under Ben Johnson.</p></li><li><p>4th-most end zone pass attempts last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> Target consolidation in Green Bay and an expanded Z-receiver route tree give Watson massive WR1/WR2 upside at a late 6th-round draft price.</p></li><li><p>Late 6th round ADP (9th round on ESPN).</p></li><li><p>WR11 from Week 11 on last season.</p></li><li><p>Out-route rate jumped from 7.7% to 35%.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton enters year two with heavy goal-line volume, strong pass-catching usage, and an upgraded offensive line under Mike McDaniel's outside-zone rushing scheme.</p></li><li><p>80% goal line carry share as a rookie (4th in NFL).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 19 routes and 3.6 receptions per game as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>Led all RBs in avoided tackles per carry over first 5 weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> With Keenan Allen gone and Mike McDaniel taking over the offense, McConkey is positioned to be the primary engine of the Chargers passing attack at a discounted draft price.</p></li><li><p>4th in yards per route run on go routes last season.</p></li><li><p>1 of 7 WRs in the last decade with 200+ targets, 1,900+ receiving yards, and 13+ TDs through two seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs / MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Because the Packers are actively preparing for a potential Josh Jacobs suspension, drafting Jacobs in the early rounds requires drafting MarShawn Lloyd in the final rounds as an insurance handcuff.</p></li><li><p>Jacobs going in top 3 rounds.</p></li><li><p>Lloyd drafted in the final rounds.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Audible</h2><p><em>Fantasy Football's Quietest Values: Buy Before Everyone Notices | On The Hotseat</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalize on market overreactions by drafting undervalued veterans and role-secure players who lack hype (like Derrick Henry, Jordan Mason, and DJ Moore) while practicing caution on injured or overvalued rookies like Jeremiyah Love and Ashton Jeanty.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Henry represents a strong value at RB12 (around Pick 21 / late second round) fitting Declan Doyle's new Baltimore scheme and incorporating more outside zone work.</p></li><li><p>Finished RB4 and RB7 previous two seasons in Baltimore.</p></li><li><p>Over 300 touches in each of the last two years.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jordan Mason:</strong> Mason is a prime target at RB39 in round 10 to serve as the early-down and short-yardage back in Frank Smith's wide-zone scheme, with a realistic ceiling of 850-1,000 rushing yards and ~6 TDs.</p></li><li><p>2-year $10.5M contract.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Courtland Sutton vs. Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Davis Webb's up-tempo Denver offense and lower A-DOT routes benefit Waddell's YAC ability, creating concern that Sutton may be slightly phased out despite leading targets previously.</p></li><li><p>Sutton is WR36.</p></li><li><p>52 first downs for Sutton last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Despite reports that Golden could lead Green Bay in catches, Jordan Love's run-first scheme and heavy financial commitments to Jaden Reed and Christian Watson limit Golden's breakout ceiling.</p></li><li><p>WR52 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Reed received ~$50M+ contract.</p></li><li><p>Watson received $100M+ contract.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty's ankle injury is reported as a low sprain; draft managers should treat him as a back-of-the-first or front-of-the-second round target rather than reaching in the top four.</p></li><li><p>Early second round / late first round target tier.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Love is overvalued at RB13 with a high ankle sprain, a crowded backfield with Tyler Allgeier and James Conner, and potential negative game scripts limiting rushing volume.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Ignore Mike McDaniel's multi-back rotation rhetoric; Hampton remains a strong buy at RB10 with elite breakout potential behind a solid tackle duo.</p></li><li><p>Averaged ~15 fantasy points per game as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> Tyson's hamstring injury could sideline him up to two months, making him a fade in shallow redraft leagues without IR spots.</p></li><li><p>Up to 2-month injury timeline.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> Moore is an exceptional value at WR25, reuniting with OC Joe Brady and pairing with Josh Allen as Buffalo's clear alpha target.</p></li><li><p>Previous 93-catch season under Joe Brady in Carolina.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> Downs' fantasy outlook dims following the signing of Keenan Allen, who is expected to command significant slot snaps in three-receiver sets.</p></li><li><p>WR42 ADP in Round 9.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Flowers is Bender's top must-draft target due to his projected high-volume slot/flanker role in Declan Doyle's Shanahan/McVay/Ben Johnson-inspired offensive scheme.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Do We Have It All Wrong?</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target late-round players with contingent roles and clear paths to volume rather than paying for temporary injury-driven ADP spikes.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Allen offers solid floor value around Round 13-14 as a target earner on Indianapolis, despite losing a step athletically.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Washington's ADP spiked during injury ambiguity, but his collegiate advanced metrics (12th percentile avoided tackles, 22nd percentile explosive run rate, 16th percentile yards after contact) and lack of refined pass-catching suggest he is unlikely to command a bellcow role even if Ashton Jeanty were sidelined.</p></li><li><p>ADP recently rose toward 187 before spiking into single-digit rounds during injury scare.</p></li><li><p>62nd percentile reception share.</p></li><li><p>65th percentile adjusted yards per team play.</p></li><li><p>57th percentile adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kevin Concepcion:</strong> Concepcion projects well ahead of teammate Denzel Boston in volume and touch manufacturing, fitting an underneath role that suits Deshaun Watson's limited downfield passing ability.</p></li><li><p>Draftable around Round 11.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling's ADP has risen two rounds into Round 9; while his physical profile, run blocking, and YAC ability fit Kyle Shanahan's offense, his ceiling remains capped when aging primary targets (Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle) are healthy.</p></li><li><p>ADP risen from Round 18-20 range up to Round 9.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Najee Harris:</strong> Harris provides viable RB2 contingent touch upside in the 19th-20th round for the Giants, having historical buy-in from coaching connections despite lacking explosive burst.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rachaad White:</strong> White remains an attractive value in double-digit rounds due to his secured passing-down route share in an ambiguous backfield alongside Jaylen Wright / Bill.</p></li><li><p>Top-20 in RB route share last season despite part-time role.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Michael Mayer:</strong> Mayer represents the highest-upside Round 20 TE selection given Las Vegas's heavy 12-personnel under Clint Kubiak and thin receiver depth chart.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</h2><p><em>The 2026 Do Not Draft List</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Avoid players being drafted at their absolute theoretical ceilings or carrying unpriced injury volatility, particularly in struggling or low-volume offenses.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Drake London:</strong> London's draft value is tied directly to starting QB Michael Penix; if Penix starts, London is viable at the late-second/early-third round turn, but if Tua Tagovailoa plays, London drops to round 4 or out of the top 50.</p></li><li><p>Late 2nd / early 3rd round valuation with Penix.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty is suffering from an ankle sprain that could sideline him for Week 1; hosts recommend dropping him below the top 11 RBs into the Josh Jacobs/Kyren Williams tier rather than drafting him at the round 1-2 turn.</p></li><li><p>Late 2nd or 3rd round target.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> Despite finishing as WR9 in points per game last year, Olave carries significant risk due to his history of concussions and a blood clot issue; his contract reportedly excludes injury guarantees for these conditions.</p></li><li><p>WR9 in PPG last season.</p></li><li><p>Over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>Going in 3rd round range.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Pittsburgh Offense:</strong> Fade the entire Steelers offense (DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth) due to a projected low depth of target, heavy personnel rotations, and low scoring ceilings under Aaron Rodgers.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Loveland's ADP (TE3, ~42nd overall) is priced at his absolute ceiling based on a small late-season sample against heavily injured linebacker units while Rome Odunze was sidelined; target competition from Odunze and Luther Burden creates risk.</p></li><li><p>3 straight games with 90+ yards.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Avoid drafting rookie WR Carnell Tate as a WR3 given Titans QB Cam Ward's low passing output (186 yards/game last year, 32nd in NFL) and target competition from Wan'Dale Robinson.</p></li><li><p>4th overall NFL draft pick.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brian Thomas Jr.:</strong> Thomas is overly volatile for redraft rosters due to relying on vertical routes, alongside target competition from Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and rotational snaps with Travis Hunter.</p></li><li><p>1,400 receiving yards mentioned.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Avoid Montgomery at his round 5/6 ADP (around pick 50-60) after moving to Houston; the Texans ranked 29th in yards per carry and 31st in rushing TDs last season, plus Woody Marks will split touches.</p></li><li><p>Texans ranked 27th in RB receiving yards.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Do not draft Love at his top-30 ADP; he is nursing a preseason high-ankle sprain on a rebuilding Cardinals team that also rosters Tyler Allgeier.</p></li><li><p>Would only target at pick 60 or later.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Xavier Worthy:</strong> Avoid drafting Worthy due to his gadget-heavy usage, slight frame, and recurring durability/shoulder concerns.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Tuten is being drafted around RB25 (picks 48-58) despite minimal rookie production (300 yards) and day-3 draft capital; this price is inflated compared to historical second-year breakout profiles.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cleveland Offense:</strong> Fade the Browns offense (Harold Fannin, Denzel Boston, Deshaun Watson) due to QB volatility and an outdoor-only schedule from Week 9 through the fantasy playoffs subject to severe weather.</p></li><li><p>Schedule is 100% outdoors from Week 9 through end of season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malik Nabers:</strong> Nabors represents significant second-round risk due to range-of-motion complications and a May meniscus cleanup following an ACL tear, along with historical soft-tissue/concussion concerns.</p></li><li><p>May meniscus cleanup 7 months after ACL surgery.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in round 2 range.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</h2><p><em>The 10 Players We Disagree on Most This Fantasy Season</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Key fantasy draft divergences center on role fragility versus offense upside, specifically whether backfield committees (Rams, Saints, Steelers) and injury-risk veterans/TEs (Mike Evans, George Kittle, Tyler Warren, Isaiah Likely) justify their current ADPs.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyren Williams:</strong> Hayden ranks Kyren Williams at 34th overall due to Blake Corum's late-season surge (50% snap share in the playoff loss) and potential offensive regression, while Josh ranks him 26th overall noting Williams played 75% of snaps when tied or trailing and remains the primary red zone weapon on an elite offense.</p></li><li><p>Played 50% to 63% of snaps in final 4 games last year.</p></li><li><p>Finished as RB11 in points per game.</p></li><li><p>Tied 3rd in red zone rush TDs on 5th most carries inside the 10-yard line.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Etienne:</strong> Hayden ranks Etienne at 35th overall, projecting high volume in Kellen Moore's fast-paced offense behind an improved Saints offensive line with Alvin Kamara compromised. Josh ranks him 43rd, preferring WRs (Flowers, Waddle) due to Etienne's poor post-bye efficiency metrics and heavy reliance on short fields.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL with 82.2 fantasy points on drives starting in opponent territory.</p></li><li><p>3.6 YPC (24th of 32) and 32% success rate (30th) post-bye.</p></li><li><p>No gain on league-high 26% of attempts post-bye.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Josh ranks Tyler Warren at 48th overall (TE4) expecting top target volume and TD progression from Shane Steichen's offense. Hayden fades him to 67th citing groin injury concerns, Keenan Allen taking short-area targets, and an offense with lower scoring floor.</p></li><li><p>10.7 PPG (TE6) in Weeks 1-13 with healthy Daniel Jones.</p></li><li><p>112 targets as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>19 red zone targets (11th in NFL among WR/TE).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Alec Pierce:</strong> Josh has Pierce at 84th overall willing to bet on proven upside, while Hayden ranks him 113th due to a visible lingering limp in training camp coming off major injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Warren:</strong> Hayden ranks Warren 55th overall projecting featured usage, solid offensive line play, and heavy reception volume with Aaron Rodgers. Josh drops him to 81st citing career inefficiency near the goal line (20% conversion) and potential goal-line vulturing from Rico Dowdle.</p></li><li><p>Converted 6 of 30 goal-to-go carries for TDs (20% career rate).</p></li><li><p>Yahoo ADP: 73rd overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Both hosts express extreme caution on Mike Evans due to soft tissue injuries (groin, quad, hamstring history) at age 33. Josh ranks him 67th overall and views him as nearly on the do-not-draft list, preferring younger options like Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, and Rome Odunze.</p></li><li><p>Hayden rank: 60th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>George Kittle &amp; Brock Purdy:</strong> Josh is high on Brock Purdy (77th) and George Kittle due to 49ers passing game efficiency and high-value target share. Hayden is lower on Purdy (103rd, preferring Dak Prescott) and fades Kittle citing recovery from Achilles surgery at age 33, preferring younger TEs like Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Kyle Pitts.</p></li><li><p>Kittle: 33% team end zone target share, 2.18 yards per route run (3rd among TEs).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Isaiah Likely:</strong> Hayden ranks Likely 108th overall (TE12) expecting him to operate as the de facto slot receiver / No. 2 target in passing situations. Josh ranks him 137th, concerned that the Giants' heavy run-first philosophy and a rotational TE snap share will cap his fantasy ceiling.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Xavier Worthy:</strong> Hayden (113th) bets on Worthy's speed in an under-center play-action heavy KC offense with Rashee Rice recovering from injury. Josh fades Worthy (139th), highlighting poor downfield receiving efficiency (4 of 16 on 20+ yard targets last year) and struggles against physical press coverage.</p></li><li><p>3 career games of 80+ receiving yards in 34 games.</p></li><li><p>Averages 2.7 catches per game when Rashee Rice plays.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Hunter:</strong> Hayden ranks Hunter 163rd as a high-upside contingent WR stash with the final draft pick. Josh fades him past top 200, pointing out Jaguars practice data showing Hunter almost exclusively working at cornerback and backing up Brian Thomas Jr. at X receiver (2 offensive snaps vs 28 defensive snaps in joint practice).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rashid Shaheed:</strong> Josh ranks Shaheed at 126th overall targeting a post-trade breakout in Seattle to overtake Cooper Kupp as Tory Horton deals with injury, while Hayden has him at 145th overall.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>12 fantasy breakout candidates for 2026</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafting upside in the middle and late rounds&#8212;especially through athletic second-year skill players and dual-threat QBs stepping into expanded roles&#8212;provides elite structural value across redraft formats.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton offers top-five RB upside in Mike McDaniel's outside zone scheme and heavy 21-personnel sets, backed by high efficiency (15.1 PPR PPG in nine games last year, 91.4% catch rate, 3.4 yards after contact per attempt), justifying his Round 2 ADP (19th overall).</p></li><li><p>733 scrimmage yards, 5 TDs on 156 touches in 9 games last season.</p></li><li><p>91.4% catch rate (32 catches on 35 targets).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Tuten fits the Jaguars' outside zone run scheme well and brings explosive playmaking upside; though Chris Rodriguez Jr. could command early-down work, Tuten offers high-ceiling value in the middle rounds (63rd overall ADP).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tetairoa McMillan:</strong> An increased slot role (up from 15.2% as a rookie toward 25-40%) will unlock elite ceiling outcomes for McMillan after he produced 0.41 fantasy points per route from the slot in 2025.</p></li><li><p>43rd overall ADP on Yahoo.</p></li><li><p>0.41 fantasy points per route from slot as rookie (13th in NFL).</p></li><li><p>15.2% slot snap rate in 2025 (102nd among 118 qualifying WRs).</p></li><li><p>22.3% target per route run rate (30th).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Brooks represents high-ceiling RB value in the 80s ADP range due to his pass-catching profile and explosive athletic traits, particularly if Chuba Hubbard misses time or is limited.</p></li><li><p>82nd-85th overall ADP on Yahoo.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Malik Willis:</strong> Willis is an elite late-round QB target at QB23 (127th overall ADP) because designed rushing volume under Bobby Slowik provides a safe fantasy floor and high ceiling regardless of modest passing numbers.</p></li><li><p>40 rushing yards equals 100 passing yards in standard scoring.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Ferguson is positioned to serve as the Los Angeles Rams' functional third pass-catching option given his alignment versatility across F, Z, Y, and X receiver positions in 13 personnel packages.</p></li><li><p>127th-131st overall ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Flowers possesses top-five WR upside under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle due to a high target share (29% in 2025, 5th in NFL), vacated targets from departed pass-catchers, and improved success against press coverage (75%).</p></li><li><p>34th overall ADP.</p></li><li><p>126 projected targets, 84 receptions, ~1,200 yards, 7 TDs (Ray Garvin projections).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Shough:</strong> Shough is an undervalued late-round QB option (132nd overall ADP) who posted QB9 fantasy scoring from Week 10 onward in 2025 and displayed legitimate rushing utility (98 scramble yards post-Week 13).</p></li><li><p>98 scramble yards from Week 13 onward (11th among QBs).</p></li><li><p>Chris Olave averaged 86 receiving YPG with Shough from Week 10 onward.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Warren is projected to lead the Colts in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs given his hybrid alignment usage (only 51.8% traditional inline snaps, 384 receiver snaps, 64 backfield snaps in 2025).</p></li><li><p>47th overall ADP (TE3).</p></li><li><p>76 receptions, 817 yards in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> Downs remains a breakout candidate at pick 100 overall because the signing of Keenan Allen primarily affects short 11-personnel looks, leaving Downs in the primary downfield separation role behind an elite offensive line.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>RJ Harvey:</strong> Harvey offers standalone PPR value in Sean Payton's offense as a designer receiving back after recording 1.42 yards per route run (8th among RBs) and a 90th percentile target share as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>47 receptions, 356 receiving yards, 12 total TDs on under 195 touches in 2025.</p></li><li><p>14th/15th in air yards per target among RBs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Rome Odunze:</strong> Odunze is poised to outscore Luther Burden III after proving high-volume dominance before his Week 9 foot fracture in 2025 (WR11 in PPG through Week 8, 85th percentile vs man, 93rd vs press).</p></li><li><p>65th overall ADP on Yahoo.</p></li><li><p>19th in yards per route run, 15th in yards per game through Week 8.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.25.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[13 episodes, 12 hours + 0 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82526</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82526</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 01:00:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 13 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82526-full-notes">LINK</a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Today's Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#128260; <strong>Texans trade for Boutte</strong>: Houston acquired WR Kayshon Boutte from New England after Jayden Higgins suffered a season-ending injury (<em>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#128678; <strong>Browns to start Watson</strong>: Cleveland named Deshaun Watson its Week 1 starting QB, though analysts expect a short leash (<em>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#127973; <strong>Jeanty avoids severe injury</strong>: Ashton Jeanty suffered a low ankle sprain, keeping him in the Round 2 to 3 draft turn (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#127944; Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Jeanty remains an attractive pick at the Round 2/3 turn after avoiding major ankle damage.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Initial reports indicate a low ankle sprain rather than a high ankle sprain, keeping his rank around 18th overall (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p>A slow recovery could sideline him for Week 1 and elevate backup Mike Washington (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128296; David Montgomery (RB, HOU)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Montgomery projects as Houston's primary goal-line hammer with double-digit TD upside.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Houston's gap-scheme offensive line makeover and run-heavy identity support a heavy early-down workload (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li><li><p>Local beat reports suggest rookie Woody Marks could carve out up to a 40% touch share (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; Rome Odunze (WR, CHI)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Odunze offers a high-ceiling Year 3 breakout profile in Ben Johnson's revamped passing attack.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He paced for 1,150 yards and 12 TDs through his first seven games last season before a Week 9 foot injury (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>).</p></li><li><p>Target competition is fierce following the arrivals of rookie playmaker Luther Burden and TE Colston Loveland (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Life Show</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128737;&#65039; Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Stevenson provides stable RB2 volume as New England's clear early-down starter.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He led all qualifying RBs in rushing yards over expected per attempt and dominated trailing-game snaps (<em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>).</p></li><li><p>Rookie TreVeyon Henderson retains superior late-season explosive upside once fully healthy (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128200; Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)</h3><p><strong>TLDR: Kincaid delivers unmatched per-route efficiency with low-end TE1 volume security.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He posted a position-leading 2.73 yards per route run and drew targets on 24% of his routes (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li><li><p>Buffalo capped his snap share under 55% each week and gave him only one target inside the 5-yard line (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#9889; The De'Von Achane Target Squeeze</h3><p><strong>The Divide: Analysts disagree on whether Achane's elite efficiency can survive Miami's backup QB situation.</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Achane ranks top-five in fantasy points per touch every career season and commands locked-in goal-line touches (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Malik Willis targeted RBs on only 10% of pass attempts over the past two years, capping Achane's receiving ceiling (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; The Josh Downs Target Share</h3><p><strong>The Divide: Experts clash over whether Downs can emerge as Indianapolis's top pass catcher amid new veteran competition.</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Downs has the elite separator skill set to lead the Colts in receptions from the slot (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> The addition of Keenan Allen, the return of Tyler Warren, and Downs's 171-pound frame cap his weekly route participation (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>).</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.25.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[13 episodes, 12 hours + 0 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82526-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82526-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:52:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>13 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>12 hours</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</strong>: <em>News and Rankings Changes: Ashton Jeanty Injured, Giants Sign Najee Harris, and Silva's Top-150 Changes (Episode 1013 with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan)</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>2026 AFC Season Win Total Bets</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Paul Dehner Jr.: Is it now or never for the Cincinnati?</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>Sigmund Bloom's 2026 Fantasy Football Values and Fades (Ultimate Vibe Check)</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>The 8 Hardest Players to Rank with Andy Behrens</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Ashton Jeanty Injury Update + Biggest Risers &amp; Fallers! (08/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>FFT Express - Jamey Eisenberg&#8217;s 2026 All-Sleeper Team! 7 Fantasy Football Players You NEED to Know! (08/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Players We&#8217;re Embarrassed to Love + Jeanty Madness! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/24</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Life Show</strong>: <em>Injury Panic Meter: Rating Every Major Injury on a Scale of 1-10 for Fantasy Football</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Five Safe Players For 2026</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>1118: Risers and Fallers</em> (August 25)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</strong>: <em>Post-Hype Sleepers, Ashton Jeanty&#8217;s Injury, and Deshaun Watson Named the Starter</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>12 ADPs we're adjusting after preseason week 2</em> (August 25)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</h2><p><em>News and Rankings Changes: Ashton Jeanty Injured, Giants Sign Najee Harris, and Silva's Top-150 Changes (Episode 1013 with Evan Silva and Adam Levitan)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalize on market overreactions to preseason injuries and depth chart noise by securing high-upside backup RBs and targeting underpriced volume receivers in ambiguous pass offenses.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty's ankle injury was characterized as more of a low than high ankle sprain, avoiding worst-case outcomes; ETR and Silva moved him down slightly to 18th overall (Tier 4 for Silva), making him an attractive pick at the Round 2/3 turn.</p></li><li><p>Silva rank moved from 14 to 18 overall.</p></li><li><p>Target range: 18-24 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Washington has flashed elite athleticism in preseason and is a priority bench stash and top-three handcuff who could be flex-viable if Jeanty misses Week 1.</p></li><li><p>15 carries for 119 yards, 2 catches for 18 yards on 45 preseason snaps.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 164 on ETR, 143 overall by Silva.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> Silva remains high on Downs to lead the Colts in receiving, whereas Levitan is dropping Downs due to Keenan Allen's signing, Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce returning, and Downs' 171-pound frame limiting run-blocking utility.</p></li><li><p>ETR rank moved down to 97 overall.</p></li><li><p>Home league ADP around 106.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malik Nabers:</strong> Nabers has shed his non-contact jersey and looks set for Week 1, but despite rapid recovery, Levitan keeps him at 26 overall due to ACL/meniscus history and Matt Nagy's offense, while Silva places him at 32 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malachi Fields:</strong> Fields is reportedly competing ahead of Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney as the X receiver; he represents an intriguing late flyer tied to Jackson Dart's downfield aggressiveness.</p></li><li><p>ETR rank range: 190-200 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo:</strong> Najee Harris's signing creates substantial role overlap with Skattebo, threatening his early-season workload and pushing his ranking down behind ADP.</p></li><li><p>Silva rank down to 64 overall.</p></li><li><p>ETR rank: 49 overall.</p></li><li><p>Redraft ADP: 38 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> Facing an estimated two-month hamstring timeline with a Week 8 bye, Jordyn Tyson is only worth drafting in deeper leagues with ample bench or IR spots; his absence boosts early-season target projections for Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson.</p></li><li><p>Expected out ~2 months from Aug 13.</p></li><li><p>Silva ranks Juwan Johnson as TE11 (77 catches, 889 yards in previous season).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Etienne:</strong> Alvin Kamara's MCL sprain sidelines him at least a month, removing early backfield competition and solidifying Etienne as an undervalued draft target.</p></li><li><p>Silva rank: 33 overall.</p></li><li><p>Redraft ADP: ~41 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Kittle was activated from PUP and offers asymmetric spike-week upside at TE, though Levitan and Silva caution against overpaying into the 80s/90s ADP range given age and injury profile.</p></li><li><p>ETR rank: 108 overall.</p></li><li><p>Redraft ADP: ~92 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling is dominating preseason efficiency and could emerge as San Francisco's big slot receiver, though his ceiling remains contingent on injuries to aging starters.</p></li><li><p>11 receptions for 109 yards on 22 preseason routes.</p></li><li><p>Silva rank: 87 overall.</p></li><li><p>ETR rank: 114 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Sam LaPorta:</strong> LaPorta's minor hip aggravation alongside his 2025 herniated disc history creates risk, but his dip in ADP offers a buying opportunity in a high-powered Lions offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Concepcion has moved up to WR41 for Silva and serves as the primary Browns receiver to target due to expected high-percentage, quarterback-proof slot usage under Todd Monken.</p></li><li><p>Silva moved Concepcion from WR47 to WR41 (up 6 spots).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Nico Collins:</strong> The trade of Kayshon Boutte to Houston solidifies Nico Collins as the Texans' dominant target earner with elite air yard share upside, cementing him as an early third-round target.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Reports of a 50-50 split with Woody Marks should be faded; Montgomery is expected to remain Houston's primary workhorse back while Marks operates as a handcuff.</p></li><li><p>ETR rank: 52 overall on Montgomery.</p></li><li><p>Marks averaged 3.6 YPC in previous season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Javonte Williams:</strong> Jaydon Blue losing momentum to Malik Davis in the Cowboys' RB2 battle cements Javonte Williams for a massive, consolidated backfield touch share.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jayden Reed:</strong> With Luke Musgrave trending toward PUP and limited TE depth forcing heavy 11 personnel (3-WR sets), Reed has his cleanest path to consolidated snaps and target volume.</p></li><li><p>ETR rank: 78 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Davante Adams:</strong> Levitan targets Adams at WR44 given Rams target concentration, while Silva fades him as an aging, touchdown-dependent receiver who lacks explosive upside.</p></li><li><p>Home league ADP: ~56 overall.</p></li><li><p>Under 1,063 yards every year since 2023.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tetairoa McMillan:</strong> McMillan's preseason slot rate spiked to 41% (up from 15% in 2025), providing him high-percentage targets in the middle of the field to overcome Carolina's offensive line deficiencies.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tre Tucker:</strong> Tucker has won the Raiders' starting WR job and entered Silva's Top 150 as a viable end-of-bench roster piece in all leagues.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Silva dropped Carnell Tate heavily from WR36 to WR46 due to Tennessee's league-worst offensive line projection and Cam Ward's preseason struggles.</p></li><li><p>ADP: ~74 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Stevenson is expected to open the season with the primary early-down role over TreVeyon Henderson, though Henderson maintains higher late-season upside.</p></li><li><p>Henderson and Stevenson both in Silva's Tier 6.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>2026 AFC Season Win Total Bets</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> No broadly actionable seasonal-redraft analysis remained after format-specific guidance was omitted. &#128465;&#65039;</p><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Paul Dehner Jr.: Is it now or never for the Cincinnati?</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> The Bengals have shifted to an aggressive 'win-now' approach to capitalize on Joe Burrow's window, while recent trades (Kayshon Boutte to the Texans, Zamir White to the 49ers) and key injuries alter depth charts across the league.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Deshaun Watson:</strong> The Cleveland named Deshaun Watson their starting QB for the season despite recent friction with fans, though there is talk of a short leash (around two games).</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Kayshon Boutte:</strong> The Houston traded safety Jaylen Reed and a 2028 seventh-round pick to the New England for WR Kayshon Boutte to address WR depth following Jayden Higgins' injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Zamir White:</strong> The San Francisco acquired RB Zamir White from the New Orleans in exchange for linebacker Deion Jones.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty suffered an ankle sprain, with team injury reports drawing skepticism from medical analysts.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Bud Clark:</strong> Seahawks rookie second-round pick Bud Clark is expected to be sidelined for an extended period after suffering a fractured ankle.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dohnte Meyers:</strong> Former CFL Grey Cup breakout Dohnte Meyers is making a strong push for a Bengals 53-man roster slot as an undersized slot receiver after catching 4 passes on an opening preseason drive.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Orlando Brown:</strong> Bengals offensive tackle depth and 30-year-old Orlando Brown's pass protection struggles against speed rushers in camp represent a major concern for Cincinnati's offensive line.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>Sigmund Bloom's 2026 Fantasy Football Values and Fades (Ultimate Vibe Check)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Current ADP is overly rigid and slow to adjust to offensive environment shifts; drafters should target heavily upgraded roles (David Montgomery, Devaughn Vele, Jonah Coleman) while fading highly drafted players facing scheme misalignment or lingering camp injuries (Omarion Hampton, Jalen Hurts, Emeka Egbuka).</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Draft David Montgomery aggressively in Round 4; Bloom ranks him ahead of Saquon Barkley due to Houston's gap-heavy offensive line makeover, defensive identity, and expected heavy 12/13 personnel run volume following Jayden Higgins' injury.</p></li><li><p>Projected 450-500 team RB rush attempts.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Early-Round Draft Strategy:</strong> Bloom targets James Cook late in Round 1, Brock Bowers in Round 2, Javonte Williams or Chris Olave in Round 3, David Montgomery in Round 4, and DJ Moore in Round 5, frequently taking elite TEs (Kincaid, LaPorta, Kittle, Kraft) to flex over WRs in PPR formats.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Fade Omarion Hampton at his Round 2 ADP ceiling; as a purely downhill, gap-scheme battering ram, he lacks outside zone agility and will be heavily rotated in Mike McDaniel's hot-hand backfield alongside Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal.</p></li><li><p>Projected games with as few as 10 carries depending on weekly matchups.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Target rookie Jonah Coleman as an ascending bell-cow back in Sean Payton's offense given his elite collegiate tackle-breaking metrics and the team's dissatisfaction with RJ Harvey's vision and J.K. Dobbins' injury history.</p></li><li><p>Top-3 collegiate seasons in missed tackles forced per touch, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per route run.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>New Orleans Pass Catchers:</strong> With Jordyn Tyson injured, Devaughn Vele (rounds 13-14) and Juwan Johnson offer massive ADP value with Tyler Shough, while Chris Olave possesses WR1 ceiling despite role and concussion questions.</p></li><li><p>Juwan Johnson ranked top-20 among all NFL players in receiving yards from Week 7 on last season with only 2 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tampa Bay WRs:</strong> Take late-round shots on Jalen McMillan (Rounds 11-12) and Ted Hurst (Rounds 14-15) and monitor Tez Johnson on waivers, as Emeka Egbuka deals with a lingering toe issue and the passing attack is projected to rebound with a healthy Baker Mayfield.</p></li><li><p>Baker Mayfield listed on practice injury report 11 times in 2024.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jalen Hurts &amp; Philadelphia:</strong> Exercise caution with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense due to the loss of A.J. Brown, offensive line health risks, and a scheme shift under Sean Mannion emphasizing 12 personnel and throws over the middle of the field.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Kenneth Walker is set up for high-volume bell-cow usage in Kansas City under Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid, though his injury history makes him a risky Round 2 selection.</p></li><li><p>Projected up to 350 touches and 25 carries per game when healthy.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Preseason Injury Recovery Evaluation:</strong> Heavily discount players who miss significant training camp time with injuries and are rushed back just in time for Week 1, as historical data shows they rarely achieve career seasons and are prone to underachieving.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>The 8 Hardest Players to Rank with Andy Behrens</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Navigating market uncertainty around high-profile players with role, coaching, or injury changes (such as De'Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, DJ Moore, and Marvin Harrison Jr.) creates significant draft-day arbitrage opportunities.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kayshon Boutte:</strong> Acquired by the Texans to provide a vertical deep threat after Jayden Higgins' injury, Boutte has upside to carve out the WR2 role in Houston and frees up Nico Collins underneath, though his volatility makes him best suited as a late-round upside shot.</p></li><li><p>Passer rating when targeted of 153.3 on deep balls with Drake Maye last season.</p></li><li><p>Ranked in the WR60s range by Behrens.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Patrick Mahomes:</strong> Mahomes sits on the borderline of QB1 territory due to concerns about his rushing output following his ACL injury, though his league-leading passing volume provides a reliable baseline.</p></li><li><p>25% of fantasy points in 2024 came from rushing.</p></li><li><p>Ranked top 3 in pass attempts per game for six consecutive seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Achane offers elite per-touch upside and goal-line involvement, but backup QB Malik Willis creates significant risk for RB target volume in Miami.</p></li><li><p>Top 5 in fantasy points per touch among RBs every season of his career.</p></li><li><p>Malik Willis saw 20% of team rush attempts and 42% of red zone attempts in 3 Green Bay starts.</p></li><li><p>Willis has targeted RBs on only 9 of 89 pass attempts over the last two years (~10%).</p></li><li><p>Ranked RB11 / 17 overall by Berry (ADP RB7 / 14 overall).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs boasts massive TD and red-zone volume in Green Bay's offense, but looming suspension uncertainty and potential workload management with MarShawn Lloyd suppress his ranking.</p></li><li><p>Leads all NFL RBs in goal-to-go rushing attempts since joining Green Bay.</p></li><li><p>Averages 18 touches per game over career and career-low 56% team rush share last season.</p></li><li><p>Ranked RB18 / 42 overall by Berry (ADP RB17 / 36 overall).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Wilson maintains a massive target share floor in New York and should produce dependable WR2 numbers despite QB and team offensive efficiency limitations under Geno Smith.</p></li><li><p>34% target share and 48% air yards share in healthy games last season.</p></li><li><p>Vegas receiving yards line at 999.5 yards.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR20 by Behrens.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR19 / 40 overall by Berry (ADP WR19 / 42 overall).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> Joining Buffalo gives Moore an elite QB pairing with Josh Allen, but Allen's tendency to spread targets and the Bills' run-heavy approach could lead to inconsistent weekly target volume.</p></li><li><p>Khalil Shakir was the only Bills WR with 60+ targets last season.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR22 by Behrens.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR29 / 63 overall by Berry (ADP 55 overall).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brian Thomas Jr.:</strong> Thomas projects as a volatile, perimeter deep threat behind Parker Washington in Jacksonville's pecking order, making his current discounted ADP around pick 80 an acceptable risk.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR37 by Behrens (behind Parker Washington at WR30).</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR32 / 67 overall by Berry (ADP 79 overall).</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> Harrison faces steep competition for targets in Arizona behind Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, and Jeremiyah Love, leaving him touchdown-dependent and carrying significant downside risk at cost.</p></li><li><p>Single-digit fantasy points in 52% of career games.</p></li><li><p>Averages 11.0 fantasy points per game (WR37 in PPG).</p></li><li><p>Under 65 receiving yards in 72% of career games.</p></li><li><p>31 end-zone targets across 29 career games.</p></li><li><p>Behrens projects ~65 receptions and 800-850 yards (ranked WR39).</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR36 / 76 overall by Berry (ADP WR32).</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> While highly efficient when running routes, Kincaid's capped snap share and lack of goal-line usage make him a low-end TE1 option rather than an elite weekly contributor.</p></li><li><p>Did not exceed 55% snap share in any game last season.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on &gt;24% of routes last season (3rd highest among TEs).</p></li><li><p>Ranked TE11 by Berry (ADP TE12 / 112 overall).</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Ashton Jeanty Injury Update + Biggest Risers &amp; Fallers! (08/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Preseason injuries and role ambiguities are creating sharp ADP adjustments: capitalize on discounts for high-upside players whose injury concerns are overblown while avoiding escalating costs on ambiguous backfields and training camp hype.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Following an ankle sprain in practice, Jeanty should be moved down from early/mid round two to the 2-3 turn, behind safer early-round RBs like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs.</p></li><li><p>Previously going in round two.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Washington's standalone value and handcuff appeal rise significantly with Jeanty banged up, making him a viable target around the 9-10 turn; if Jeanty were out long-term, Washington would climb to around RB26-27.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey returned to practice and confirmed his training camp absence was planned maintenance, cementing his status as an elite top-tier first-round selection.</p></li><li><p>Moved to overall top 10/RB6 range for Jamie.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> Williams rises into round five contention ahead of Rome Odunze and Christian Watson as an upside beneficiary if Sam LaPorta's hip injury lingers, having seen significantly higher target volume in games without LaPorta last season.</p></li><li><p>Draft range late round 5.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Achane is solidifying as a round three selection (RB12-14 range) due to skepticism that Alvin Kamara will maintain a significant offensive role.</p></li><li><p>Targeted in Round 3.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Dalton Schultz:</strong> Schultz is an ideal floor TE target around round 10 to pair with an injured or uncertain early TE, benefiting from concentrated targets with Jayden Higgins and Tank Dell sidelined.</p></li><li><p>Had 107 targets last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tyrone Tracy:</strong> Tracy is tumbling down draft boards after recent preseason miscues and the signing of Najee Harris, making him no longer worth drafting before round 14.</p></li><li><p>Drop past round 10 down to round 14+.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Price is rising to the 5-6 turn (around pick 59-65), but managers should be wary of his second-half workload once Zach Charbonnet returns from his ACL tear.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Brooks has surged nine spots on CBS to 88th overall and up to 68th on NFFC, but taking him in the 60s represents too much baked-in risk for a rookie in a lagging Panthers offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Despite reports of a potential 50-50 committee with Woody Marks, Montgomery remains the favorite for goal-line work and double-digit TDs, though his rising ADP (51st overall) caps his value upside.</p></li><li><p>Projected double-digit TDs.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>FFT Express - Jamey Eisenberg&#8217;s 2026 All-Sleeper Team! 7 Fantasy Football Players You NEED to Know! (08/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Prioritize high-upside offensive environments and elite contingent-value RBs in the double-digit rounds over low-ceiling WR5/WR6 depth.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyler Murray:</strong> Draft as a high-upside QB2 or target if waiting on QB; possesses top-12 upside with Kevin O'Connell and an elite pass-catching corps while averaging 36 career rushing yards per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Target past pick 100 as a bench stash in Denver with potential goal-line and passing-down involvement alongside RJ Harvey given J.K. Dobbins' injury track record.</p></li><li><p>Dobbins missed at least 4 games in each of the last 4 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Marshawn Lloyd:</strong> Stash as a high-value lottery ticket behind Josh Jacobs in Green Bay, despite Chris Brooks working in on third downs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Bench Construction Strategy:</strong> Fill late-round bench spots with high-upside backup RBs (such as Ray Davis, Tank Bigsby, Samaje Perine, Malik Davis, and Jaylen Wright) rather than WR5/WR6 depth or backup TEs/QBs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Draft as a late-round WR3 sleeper and prime keeper target who is manufactured touches in the slot in Cleveland.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jalen Coker:</strong> Target in the late rounds of 3-wide receiver leagues after demonstrating WR3/Flex production over his final five games.</p></li><li><p>Averaged over 14 PPR points per game in final 5 games.</p></li><li><p>Matched Tetairoa McMillan in targets over that span.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Target as a sleeper TE in deep or TE-premium formats with path to third pass-catcher volume in Sean McVay's Rams offense.</p></li><li><p>High-end TE2 projection in deep formats.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Reed:</strong> Target as a top Flex sleeper in Green Bay's offense over Matthew Golden, possessing high per-target efficiency and manufactured rush attempts.</p></li><li><p>Scored 13+ PPR points in 15 of 23 career games with 5+ targets.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Amon-Ra St. Brown:</strong> Draft at 1.08 in PPR leagues ahead of Christian McCaffrey to lock in a safe elite receiver floor before targeting falling Round 2 RBs.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Players We&#8217;re Embarrassed to Love + Jeanty Madness! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/24</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Key training camp news&#8212;including minor injury scares for Ashton Jeanty and TreVeyon Henderson alongside shifting backfield committees in Carolina, Chicago, and Houston&#8212;creates clear value targets in mid-to-late rounds, highlighted by underpriced players like Kyle Pitts, Rome Odunze, and D'Andre Swift.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Initial panic about a severe injury was tempered by reports from Schefter and Rapoport indicating an ankle sprain that is not considered long-term, though managers drafting immediately must weigh high-ankle vs. low-ankle risk before official team diagnoses.</p></li><li><p>4 to 6 week estimated recovery if high ankle sprain.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Stevenson is trending as the clear RB1 in New England per local beat reporters, and his appeal rises further with TreVeyon Henderson suffering an ankle/foot issue in practice; he represents strong value in rounds 6-7.</p></li><li><p>Drafted roughly 2 rounds behind TreVeyon Henderson.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyle Pitts:</strong> Pitts offers significant PPR upside in the 6th to 7th round due to heavy short-yardage targets from a risk-averse QB and head coach Kevin Stefanski's historically high TE target share.</p></li><li><p>Signed 3-year, $36M guaranteed extension.</p></li><li><p>63% of QB attempts under 10 yards.</p></li><li><p>Stefanski offense featured 32% TE target share in 2025 and 20-26%+ over the past six seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rome Odunze:</strong> Despite rookie competition from Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, Odunze's proven high first-read target share and end zone volume make him an attractive round-6 target with Year 3 breakout potential.</p></li><li><p>WR 3 in fantasy over the first month of Year 2 before week 9 foot injury.</p></li><li><p>7-game pace: 136 targets, 75 receptions, 1,150 yards, 12 TDs.</p></li><li><p>27 end-zone targets in first two seasons (7th most among NFL WRs).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Swift represents premier value as RB24 in the 5th round, serving as the lead back behind an improved Bears offensive line in Ben Johnson's scheme while rookie Kyle Monangai deals with a multi-week knee injury.</p></li><li><p>Bears rush success rate improved from 21st to 3rd under Ben Johnson.</p></li><li><p>Yards before contact improved from 26th to 6th; PFF run block rank from 14th to 3rd.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Lloyd is a priority late-round target and hedge for managers fading Josh Jacobs, especially given Green Bay's increased usage of wide-zone running schemes that fit Lloyd's skillset.</p></li><li><p>Virtually free in drafts.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Finally entering the season healthy, Kincaid offers elite per-route efficiency and presents massive upside if his offensive snap share expands beyond the 30% mark.</p></li><li><p>2.73 yards per route run (highest among all NFL TEs).</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Panthers Backfield:</strong> Dave Canales announced a Week 1 committee approach if Chuba Hubbard plays, making Hubbard an unstartable week 1 option and elevating Jonathon Brooks' long-term outlook.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery &amp; Woody Marks:</strong> Reports from the Houston Chronicle indicate Woody Marks could push David Montgomery into a near 50-50 or 60-40 touch split, creating potential risk for Montgomery's draft cost.</p></li><li><p>Projected touch split potentially between 30% and 40-45% for Marks.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Life Show</h2><p><em>Injury Panic Meter: Rating Every Major Injury on a Scale of 1-10 for Fantasy Football</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> While several high-profile players (George Kittle, Malik Nabers, Patrick Mahomes) are tracking positively and represent solid draft values, severe or ambiguous injury timelines on players like Ashton Jeanty, Jordyn Tyson, and Alec Pierce require significant ADP discounts or pivoting to secondary options.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty is dealing with a sprained ankle and is estimated to miss 5 to 7 weeks. Fantasy managers should avoid drafting him in rounds 1 or 2, but he offers league-winning late-season upside in the 3rd or 4th round turn.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Washington solidifies his role as the clear backup and contingent RB beneficiary with Jeanty sidelined. He is a priority target around pick 140 (or up to round 9/pick 108-115 if extended absence is confirmed).</p></li><li><p>RB5 in rookie supermodel.</p></li><li><p>Draft target: pick 125-145 (Round 11) up to pick 108 (Round 9).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling is earning unprecedented targets per route run through preseason action and warrants high-upside swings in redraft leagues around the 6th round.</p></li><li><p>Upside to return 3rd-4th round value.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> Kraft's ACL recovery is on track despite early-season snap management. He led NFL TEs over the past two seasons with 9.8 YAC/reception and a 5.1 aDOT, offering strong value at his ESPN ADP of 90.</p></li><li><p>9.8 YAC per reception (Rank #1 last 2 seasons).</p></li><li><p>ADP: ESPN 90, Sleeper 63, Yahoo 60, Underdog 77.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> With a two-month recovery timeline and college injury history, Jordyn Tyson should not be drafted in rounds 7-8; target him only as a late bench stash around pick 110-120 (rounds 11-12) if league lineup requirements are shallow.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Dealing with an uncertain toe injury, Egbuka is overpriced in the 3rd round but represents strong upside in rounds 4 to 5 (ADP 47-50).</p></li><li><p>20.1 PPR PPG across first 5 rookie games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Alec Pierce &amp; Keenan Allen:</strong> Pierce's indefinite ankle timeline and Indianapolis's acquisition of Keenan Allen make Pierce a full fade. Keenan Allen offers a limited-ceiling floor, while Josh Downs (consensus WR33) remains the preferred managed league target.</p></li><li><p>Pierce 18.7 aDOT (1st among WRs with 500+ routes).</p></li><li><p>Downs ADP: ESPN 132, Yahoo 109, Sleeper 107, Underdog 82 (WR33 consensus).</p></li><li><p>Keenan Allen WR64 consensus.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Luther Burden &amp; Bears Offense:</strong> Burden's preseason groin injury is not expected to sideline him for Week 1. In Ben Johnson's offense, Burden and TE Colston Loveland (draftable in round 4) project as the primary target funnels ahead of Rome Odunze.</p></li><li><p>Burden ADP: Underdog 45, Sleeper 52.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Kayshon Boutte:</strong> Following his trade from the Patriots to the Texans, Boutte enters the perimeter rotation with Jayden Higgins out for the year and Tank Dell unlikely for Week 1. Boutte is a late-round dart throw.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 8.9 PPR PPG on 3 targets per game in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Activated off the PUP list and expected to play Week 1 or 2, Kittle represents major value outside the top 90-100 picks. Fantasy managers should draft him and pair him with late-round options like Juwan Johnson.</p></li><li><p>14.9 PPG, 60 YPG, 23% target share last season.</p></li><li><p>ADP: ESPN 96, Sleeper 91, Underdog 112.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> Recent practice absences due to muscle tightness and declining rushing efficiency increase his risk profile; drafting Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jonathan Taylor over CMC in the first round is recommended.</p></li><li><p>Panic meter: 6/10.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Patrick Mahomes:</strong> Mahomes is fully confident for Week 1 following his late-season ACL/LCL tear. He can be targeted as a mid-tier QB1 or platooned cheaply with QBs like Bo Nix, Jared Goff, or Matthew Stafford.</p></li><li><p>Recent PPG averages: 17.5, 17.6, 20.3.</p></li><li><p>256-261 passing YPG.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Malik Nabers:</strong> Shedding his non-contact jersey and avoiding the PUP list makes Nabers an aggressive draft target at the late 2nd / early 3rd round turn despite questions about QB Jaxson Dart and coordinator Matt Nagy.</p></li><li><p>Jaxson Dart rookie baseline: 184 passing YPG.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Five Safe Players For 2026</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafting safely involves anchoring rosters with high-floor, predictable-volume players across the first five to six rounds rather than overloading on volatile, high-risk profiles.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Downgraded to 20th overall in standard and 21st in PPR (mid-to-late second round) due to significant injury risk following a severe ankle sprain suffered on Sunday.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kayshon Boutte:</strong> Traded to the Texans following Jayden Higgins's torn ACL, but is unlikely to be fantasy-relevant; Jaylin Noel remains the preferred late-round Houston WR target.</p></li><li><p>33 catches last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Arizona Backfield:</strong> With Trey Benson cut, Jeremiyah Love dealing with a high ankle sprain, and James Conner limited in 11-on-11 practice reps, Tyler Allgeier is in line for early-season opportunity.</p></li><li><p>29 carries for Trey Benson last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Viewed as a safe early second-to-third-round pick due to guaranteed volume and goal-line usage in Baltimore's backfield, despite entering his age-32/33 season.</p></li><li><p>Second-round to third-round ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Saquon Barkley:</strong> Offers an exceptionally safe floor at the pick 7 to 9 range in Round 1 compared to riskier options with injury flags like Ashton Jeanty or De'Von Achane.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> High-floor WR2 candidate whose target consistency outweighs limited red-zone TD opportunities in Philadelphia's run-heavy goal-line offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>A.J. Brown:</strong> Comfortable second-round target around pick 20 overall whose training camp performance has quieted off-season efficiency concerns.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Offers a steady RB2 floor around the late fifth to early sixth round, with additional touch security created by Kyle Monangai's early-season injury.</p></li><li><p>Late 5th / early 6th round ADP.</p></li><li><p>Targeting ~1,000 rushing yards.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Etienne Jr.:</strong> Provides high floor security at the late third to early fourth round turn with clear runway in the Saints backfield while Alvin Kamara is sidelined.</p></li><li><p>Late 3rd to early 4th round ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Harold Fannin Jr.:</strong> A reliable mid-tier TE draft value who demonstrated quarterback-proof production and red-zone usage, drafted near TE10 but projected as TE6.</p></li><li><p>Projected value around TE6.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> A reliable fourth-round target (around pick 45 overall) possessing a high weekly target floor as the primary pass catcher in the Chargers offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dak Prescott:</strong> Serves as the quintessential safe late-round QB target (around QB9) with a dependable baseline of roughly 4,000 passing yards and 30 passing TDs.</p></li><li><p>QB9 ranking.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Warren:</strong> An optimal, safe flex selection in rounds 5&#8211;6 (live ADP 64 overall) despite sharing work with Rico Dowdle.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>1118: Risers and Fallers</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Fantasy managers must be willing to adjust rankings when new context emerges, emphasizing ceiling and outlier profiles in late rounds over perceived floor.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Target De'Zhaun Stribling in rounds 8-9 of redraft drafts as a top-50 WR upside play, capitalizing on camp and preseason success and high YAC ability despite a poor college production profile (31st percentile breakout score).</p></li><li><p>20th percentile college yards per route run rate.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ja'Kobi Lane, Caleb Douglas, Cyrus Allen:</strong> Prioritize ceiling over floor in late-round rookie WR targets. Lane offers red zone ability with high first downs per route run; Douglas serves as a deep threat with an 81st percentile deep ball rate; Allen has versatile alignment potential for the Chiefs with an 88th percentile deep ball rate.</p></li><li><p>Lane: 44th percentile breakout score.</p></li><li><p>Douglas: 25th percentile breakout score, 28th percentile career YPRR, 81st percentile deep ball rate.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Alec Pierce:</strong> Downgrade Alec Pierce due to an ongoing ankle injury and the arrival of Keenan Allen, noting Pierce has never exceeded an 18% target share in the NFL or 22% in college.</p></li><li><p>Keenan Allen 26% targets per route run with Chargers, 25% with Bears.</p></li><li><p>Pierce highest college target share: 22% (29th percentile).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Malik Nabers:</strong> Move Nabors up redraft rankings as his health trends positively, though the host still prefers drafting the round 2 tier of RBs over him.</p></li><li><p>Rookie season ranked 1st in targets per route run rate among WRs with 300+ routes since 2016.</p></li><li><p>10th in yards per route run rate.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Oronde Gadsden II &amp; Eli Stowers:</strong> Fade late-round TEs Oronde Gadsden II and Eli Stowers in season-long drafts; Gadsden is behind David Njoku and Charlie Kolar while developing as a blocker, and Stowers is stuck behind Dallas Goedert.</p></li><li><p>Stowers: 90th percentile breakout score, 94th percentile career YPRR.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Target Jonathon Brooks as an RB3/RB4 with major upside following Chuba Hubbard's injury, supported by strong prospect metrics including a 94th percentile avoided tackles per attempt rate.</p></li><li><p>Zapp model score of 70.5.</p></li><li><p>83rd percentile adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt.</p></li><li><p>89th percentile adjusted total yards per team play.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson vs. TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Prioritize Rhamondre Stevenson over TreVeyon Henderson, as Stevenson led all qualified backs in rushing yards over expected per rush, dominated playoff snaps, and is trusted in pass protection in trailing game scripts.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson ranked 1st in rushing yards over expected per rush.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson played over 2x snaps compared to Henderson when both healthy while trailing.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> Draft Parker Washington as an undervalued upside WR who showed dominant efficiency down the stretch last season and projects for consistent playing time in Liam Cohen's offense.</p></li><li><p>Over 2.5 yards per route run post-bye.</p></li><li><p>24% targets per route run rate.</p></li><li><p>0.53 PPR points per route run.</p></li><li><p>3.17 yards per route run outside the slot on 115 routes.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Rachaad White &amp; Jacory Croskey-Merritt:</strong> Target the ambiguous Commanders backfield; while Rachaad White remains the proven pass receiver, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has camp momentum and led the league in yards after contact per attempt on under-center runs last season.</p></li><li><p>White top 20 route share among RBs last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Stefon Diggs:</strong> Target Stefon Diggs as one of the most undervalued WRs in fantasy football; his per-route efficiency remains elite and he fits well alongside Terry McLaurin in Washington.</p></li><li><p>12.3 PPR points per game last year.</p></li><li><p>Top 10 in yards per route run (100+ routes).</p></li><li><p>90th percentile targets per route run mark.</p></li><li><p>71% route share last year.</p></li><li><p>9th in targets per route run and 8th in yards per route run outside the slot.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</h2><p><em>Post-Hype Sleepers, Ashton Jeanty&#8217;s Injury, and Deshaun Watson Named the Starter</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalize on market overreactions to rookie-year disappointments and preseason news by targeting post-hype sophomores and underpriced ambiguous-backfield runners while avoiding toxic offensive environments like Cleveland.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> If Jeanty's injury is confirmed as a low ankle sprain, drop him to mid/late second round (around RB18-20 overall, trailing the elite tier). If diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, drop him to the 4th-5th round (fringe top-50) due to projected loss of explosiveness.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mike Washington Jr.:</strong> Draft Mike Washington as an immediate high-upside handcuff around the 10th round (pick ~120) with Ashton Jeanty injured, though Dylan Laube is expected to handle third-down work.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> Marvin Harrison Jr. represents a strong post-hype bounce-back target in the 8th round. The departure of Kyler Murray, pairing with Jacoby Brissett, and Mike LaFleur's scheme creating in-breaking routes raise his target ceiling.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>RJ Harvey:</strong> Harvey is severely undervalued at his 9th-round (RB32) ADP. Despite backfield competition, Harvey handled 57% of Denver's inside-the-5 carries, scored 12 total TDs, caught 47 passes as a rookie, and operates in high-value roles in Sean Payton's offense.</p></li><li><p>12 rookie TDs, 47 receptions, 900 total yards, 57% inside-the-5 rush share, 9th round / RB32 ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rome Odunze:</strong> Odunze is a prime 6th/7th round buy-low target. He was the overall WR3 in fantasy through the first 4 weeks last year prior to injury, and now enters year three with DJ Moore gone.</p></li><li><p>6th to 7th round draft cost; WR3 overall across weeks 1-4 last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Juwan Johnson:</strong> Johnson is an elite late-round/last-pick TE target (TE17, ~158 ADP). He quietly ranked 3rd among all NFL TEs in receiving yards last season with 102 targets and 77 catches, and now benefits from Taysom Hill's departure and Jordyn Tyson's hamstring injury.</p></li><li><p>TE17 ADP (pick 158), 102 targets, 77 receptions, 889 receiving yards, 3 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Target Golden as an 11th-round sleeper as he steps into Romeo Doubs' starting X-receiver role in Matt LaFleur's offense with high snap volume (Doubs played 78% of snaps last season).</p></li><li><p>11th round ADP; projected jump from 50% rookie snap rate to 80-85%.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jalen McMillan:</strong> Stash McMillan as a free final-round flyer (ADP 185). With Mike Evans gone and Chris Godwin aging/injured, McMillan could emerge as Tampa Bay's WR2 or WR1 after scoring 7 TDs over his final 5 games as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Cleveland:</strong> Avoid drafting Cleveland offensive skill players (Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin, Dylan Sampson, receivers) due to severe dysfunction and poor QB play under Deshaun Watson.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>12 ADPs we're adjusting after preseason week 2</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalizing on market inefficiencies on Yahoo&#8212;such as underpriced volume RBs, late-round high-upside QBs, and misvalued WRs stepping into expanded target shares&#8212;provides a massive competitive edge in 2026 fantasy drafts.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Walker is mispriced in the second round and should be drafted as a late first-round pick at the turn due to his bellcow projection in the Chiefs offense.</p></li><li><p>Current Yahoo ADP: 14th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jordan Mason:</strong> Mason is a major draft steal at RB38 in the 10th round, fitting Kevin O'Connell's new vertical wide-zone scheme and expected to start over an aging Aaron Jones.</p></li><li><p>10.5+ half-PPR PPG in games without McCarthy.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Swift represents an undervalued RB2 target operating behind an upgraded Bears offensive line and Ben Johnson's run-friendly offensive architecture.</p></li><li><p>Current Yahoo ADP: RB20.</p></li><li><p>Matt Harmon rank: RB17.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> Williams possesses elite ceiling as the WR2 in Detroit's high-powered offense and should be targeted heavily outside the top 24 WRs.</p></li><li><p>Current Yahoo ADP: 67th overall / Outside top-24 WRs.</p></li><li><p>Finished as WR9 in half-PPR last year.</p></li><li><p>WR5 from Week 10 onward.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Nix is significantly underdrafted as QB14 in the 9th round despite high pass volume, rushing upside, and the addition of Jaylen Waddle.</p></li><li><p>Finished QB7 as a rookie and QB6 last season.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL in pass attempts last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Stevenson offers strong RB2 value at an RB31 price tag as the proven preferred early-down and goal-line option over TreVeyon Henderson.</p></li><li><p>Current Yahoo ADP: RB31 / 78th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Flowers brings top-12 WR upside outside the top-12 ADP price tag due to ascending target share and positive TD regression.</p></li><li><p>29% target share last season (up from 24% and 25%).</p></li><li><p>1,200 yards on 86 receptions.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> Hurts is a prime league-winning QB candidate due to the easiest QB fantasy schedule, an upgraded Sean Mannion offense, and locked-in goal-line rushing volume.</p></li><li><p>421 rushing yards and 8 TDs in down year.</p></li><li><p>Four prior seasons over 600 rushing yards and 10+ TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathan Taylor:</strong> Taylor profiles as an elite mid-first round target whose receiving upside and top-10 offensive line support give him overall RB1 potential.</p></li><li><p>23.0 fantasy PPG over first 13 weeks with Daniel Jones.</p></li><li><p>46 receptions last season.</p></li><li><p>7th easiest RB schedule.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Waddle is primed for a WR breakout in Sean Payton's Broncos offense and should be drafted aggressively in the 3rd to early 4th round.</p></li><li><p>Top-12 in TPRR and YPRR among qualified WRs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> Washington is an ascending WR3 target with WR2 upside in Liam Coen's Jaguars offense, clear of Travis Hunter's defensive role.</p></li><li><p>Current Yahoo ADP: 75th overall.</p></li><li><p>Targeted in the 6th/7th round.</p></li><li><p>14th in receiving yards from Week 7 onward last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Warren is a top late-round/streaming TE with elite yards-after-catch ability and proven TE1 production when Daniel Jones is healthy.</p></li><li><p>TE6 in PPG through Week 10 last year.</p></li><li><p>Led 75+ target TEs with 6.5 YAC per catch.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.24.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[16 episodes, 15 hours + 26 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82426</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82426</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 01:00:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 16 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82426-full-notes">LINK</a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Today's Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#128680; <strong>Jeanty injury shakes drafts</strong>: Ashton Jeanty suffered an ankle sprain that could sideline him for several games, creating an opportunity for rookie Mike Washington Jr. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#127942; <strong>Gibbs solidifies top billing</strong>: Analysts increasingly prefer Jahmyr Gibbs over Bijan Robinson at 1.01 overall due to superior rushing and receiving volume in Detroit's high-scoring offense (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Life Show</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mid-round receivers gain appeal</strong>: Experts like securing RBs early and attacking undervalued WR depth across Rounds 3 through 8 (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#9889; Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Mike Washington Jr. is a priority late-round target with immediate starting volume in Las Vegas.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Washington played 22 of 26 snaps with the starters in Preseason Week 2 and boasts 4.30 speed (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li><li><p>He carries ball-security concerns after coughing up 10 fumbles over his final three college seasons (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#129657; Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Ashton Jeanty remains a high-upside draft target despite an early-season injury discount.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Jeanty is worth targeting at the Round 2/3 turn as an elite talent who could become a league-winner once fully healthy (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</em>).</p></li><li><p>A practice ankle sprain carries high reinjury risk and may cost him 1 to 4 regular-season games (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128640; Jameson Williams (WR, DET)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Jameson Williams is an ascending draft value poised for expanded early-season targets.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Williams is valued nearly 20 spots ahead of ADP following positive training camp reports and strong chemistry with Jared Goff (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li><li><p>Detroit's target tree remains competitive alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs once Sam LaPorta returns from a hip issue (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128200; De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, SF)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling offers late-round WR upside in San Francisco's efficient offense.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Stribling earned targets on six of eight pass plays in Preseason Week 2 while rotating across X, Z, and slot receiver alignments (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</em>).</p></li><li><p>His regular-season target volume could stay limited when veteran starters Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey command full workloads (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128737;&#65039; Bucky Irving (RB, TB)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Bucky Irving offers standalone early-down value behind an improved Tampa Bay offensive line.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Irving secured primary early-down duties in the preseason and ranked top-10 among RBs in yards per route run (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li><li><p>Kenneth Gainwell is projected to handle passing downs and two-minute drills, capping Irving's receiving ceiling in trailing game scripts (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#9203; The Round 2 TE Investment</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Analysts disagree on whether to spend early second-round draft capital on Brock Bowers or wait for TE value.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Drafting Brock Bowers around pick 21 secures a massive positional projection edge and an estimated 15 fantasy points per game (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Life Show</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Passing on Bowers allows drafters to secure an elite RB1 or draft Colston Loveland two rounds later at a superior cost (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; Early QB vs. Late-Round Streaming</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Drafters face a clear split between securing early elite QBs and waiting for double-digit round values.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Elite dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen provide an irreplaceable weekly ceiling that wins shallow leagues (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Early-round QBs carry heavy opportunity cost when rushing options like Jayden Daniels or late streamers provide similar per-game efficiency (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Life Show</em>).</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.24.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[16 episodes, 15 hours + 26 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82426-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82426-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:29:19 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>16 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>15 hours and 26 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</strong>: <em>Draft Strategy: How To Attack Your League This Season (Episode 1012 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Jack Miller)</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>2026 College Football Week 0 Bets!</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Brett Kollmann on the NFL's latest trends &amp; the Eagles' new offense</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>Expert 12-team PPR Breakdown you NEED to Watch Before Drafting | Fantasy Focus</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>Players You NEED to Draft this Season | Fantasy Focus</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>Don't Draft Yet! 10 Must-Know Preseason Fantasy Football Takeaways (Week 2 Recap)</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>The 10 Biggest Fantasy Takeaways from Preseason Week 2 with Dwain McFarland</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>2026 Fantasy Football Mailbag Q&amp;A | Your Draft &amp; Training Camp Questions Answered! (08/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 22)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>2026 PPR Superflex Fantasy Football LIVE Mock Draft! (08/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Don't FORGET About These 11 Players! Dak, Bucky, Higgins, &amp; More! (08/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Mock Draft MAYHEM! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/21</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Life Show</strong>: <em>The Worst (&amp; Best) Way You Can Start Your Fantasy Football Drafts in 2026</em> (August 22)</p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Five Busts For 2026 &amp; Jeanty Injury</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</strong>: <em>Feel It or F&#8211;It 8.17.26 with Lex Luthor and Matt Waldman</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</strong>: <em>15 Huge Rankings Updates To Make Before Your Rivals Do</em> (August 24)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>Preseason week 2 recap: Fantasy winners, losers and risers</em> (August 24)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</h2><p><em>Draft Strategy: How To Attack Your League This Season (Episode 1012 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Jack Miller)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Optimizing redraft strategy in 2026 requires adapting to running back-heavy market trends: secure elite RBs early (or target Round 4 RB values like Etienne and Swift), load up on undervalued mid-round WRs (Rounds 3&#8211;8), grab elite TEs or pivot to late upside stabs, bypass early QBs unless dual-threats slide to Round 6, and churn the waiver wire aggressively.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Bijan Robinson:</strong> Jahmyr Gibbs is strongly preferred as the clear 1.01 overall pick over Bijan Robinson due to superior rushing/receiving volume in a significantly better offense.</p></li><li><p>Gibbs and Robinson separated in their own top tier.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>First-Round Draft Slot Strategy:</strong> Picks 1-2 provide access to the top tier of RBs (Gibbs and Robinson), while picks 9-12 are ideal for locking in strong RB-RB starts (such as James Cook, Kenneth Walker, Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Jeanty, Derrick Henry, or Saquon Barkley), freeing up Rounds 3-8 to attack WR value.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>RB Barbell Strategy:</strong> The RB barbell strategy can be extended into Round 4 this year, allowing drafters to start WR-heavy if players like Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, or D'Andre Swift fall to Round 4/5.</p></li><li><p>D'Andre Swift home league ADP around low 50s.</p></li><li><p>Breece Hall ADP ~32.</p></li><li><p>David Montgomery ADP ~49.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>QB Draft Approach:</strong> Avoid drafting early-round QBs like Josh Allen in 1QB redraft formats; instead, target dual-threat rushers (Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye) if they fall to Round 6, or wait until double-digit rounds to draft high-upside late QBs or stream a two-QB platoon (Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Jaxson Dart).</p></li><li><p>Projection difference between QB7/8 and QB17/18 is minimal.</p></li><li><p>Brock Purdy averaged over 4.0 fantasy points per game rushing over past 2 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Strategy:</strong> Prioritize securing an elite TE in the top tier (Brock Bowers in early/mid Round 2 or Colston Loveland in Round 4). If missing the top tier, avoid paying up for overinflated mid-tier TEs (TE5&#8211;TE8) and instead wait for late-round upside stabs like Juwan Johnson or Terrance Ferguson.</p></li><li><p>Brock Bowers home league ADP ~21.3.</p></li><li><p>Trey McBride home league ADP ~22.3.</p></li><li><p>Isaiah Likely ADP ~105.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brandon Aubrey &amp; Kicker Drafting:</strong> Brandon Aubrey represents a unique tier-gap advantage at kicker in half-PPR/standard short-bench leagues and is defensible around Round 9&#8211;11; otherwise, wait until the final round for a kicker or stream off waivers.</p></li><li><p>Aubrey averaged 11.1 PPG (matched WR16 in half-PPR; WR38 in full PPR).</p></li><li><p>No other kicker over past 5 years averaged more than 9.6 PPG.</p></li><li><p>Aubrey redraft aggregate ADP ~120th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Defensive Streaming Targets:</strong> Draft defenses strictly in the final round and target early favorable matchups: Chargers (vs. Cardinals, vs. Raiders in Weeks 1-2), Jaguars (vs. Browns Week 1), and Steelers (vs. Falcons Week 1).</p></li><li><p>Targeting defenses going outside the top 7-8 (DEF 8-12 range).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Managed-League Roster Management:</strong> Cut low-ceiling floor veterans (e.g., Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy) in favor of high-variance upside swings and players with early-week role clarity (e.g., Terrance Ferguson, Jaylin Noel, Cyrus Allen, AD Mitchell) to maximize waiver churn.</p></li><li><p>Jayden Higgins (torn ACL) out for season; Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) out 2 months.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Handcuff RBs:</strong> Only invest in direct handcuffs if they are on elite offenses, come at virtually free late-round draft costs, and have a clear path to monopolizing work if the starter gets hurt (e.g., Tank Bigsby behind Saquon Barkley, Ray Davis behind James Cook, Tyler Allgeier behind Bijan Robinson).</p></li><li><p>Blake Corum ADP in the 90s is too expensive for a pure handcuff.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Brett Kollmann on the NFL's latest trends &amp; the Eagles' new offense</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> NFL offensive schemes are evolving back toward under-center alignments, wide zone concepts, and heavier blocking TEs to maximize play-action efficiency and disguise run-pass intentions.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Indianapolis:</strong> Shane Steichen flipped traditional offensive tendencies by ranking 31st in first-down run rate during peak efficiency, using first down for high-percentage passing chunks (crossers and backside digs) and reserving Jonathan Taylor for second-down runs to create manageable third-down situations.</p></li><li><p>Approximately 35% of first downs resulted directly in a new first down.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Philadelphia:</strong> Fantasy managers should anticipate early-season growing pains in September as Jalen Hurts and the offense transition from a shotgun inside-zone scheme to an under-center wide-zone offense with heavy play-action.</p></li><li><p>Under-center play-action generates roughly three times the average EPA per dropback compared to standard dropback passes.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>NFL TEs:</strong> Teams are pivoting back to heavier blocking TEs because the average weight among top 30 snap-earning TEs fell, compromising rushing attacks and forcing offensive line adjustments.</p></li><li><p>Average starting TE weight dropped from 255 pounds in 2016 to 245 pounds.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Houston:</strong> The Texans adjusted their WR depth by signing veterans Sterling Shepard and Zay Jones following roster attrition.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Nick Chubb:</strong> RB Nick Chubb is retiring from the NFL at age 30.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Baltimore:</strong> Center Danny Pinter suffered a season-ending torn patella tendon, while WR Rashod Bateman faces legal issues following an arrest on family violence charges.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Seattle:</strong> WR Jake Bobo suffered a serious injury, impacting Seattle's perimeter depth.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Cleveland:</strong> The Browns placed Alex Wright on injured reserve, signed edge rusher Derek Barnett, and released TE Dae'Quan Wright.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>Expert 12-team PPR Breakdown you NEED to Watch Before Drafting | Fantasy Focus</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Early-round injury news (such as ankle sprains for Ashton Jeanty and Jeremiyah Love) creates significant draft-day value pockets, and managers should not hesitate to reach past ADP lines for high-upside targets in the middle-to-late rounds.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty suffered an ankle sprain in practice, and with 20 days until the Raiders opener, a realistic timeline is missing 1 to 3 games (historical RB high ankle sprain average is 4.09 weeks). He remains a reasonable pick at the bottom of the RB6-RB15 tier in Round 3.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Washington Jr.:</strong> Washington rises as an insurance handcuff who could be ranked around RB22-RB24 for Week 1 if Jeanty sits, though long-term value is limited if the Raiders add veteran depth. Washington possesses 4.30 speed (90th percentile) but had 10 fumbles over his last three college seasons.</p></li><li><p>4.30 40-yard dash speed.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey returned to practice after managing calf/body tightness, which the team views as a planned veteran rest measure rather than a major 2024 injury concern.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> Nacua fell to pick 1.08 amid lingering questions over a potential early-season suspension, which could be resolved by NFL cut-down weekend ahead of the Rams' Australia opener.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs offers back-end RB1 upside despite risk of early-season suspension, backed by a touchdown-per-game pace since joining Green Bay.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Travis Etienne Jr.:</strong> Etienne's early-season runway and role could expand if Alvin Kamara's injury lingers, especially with depth backs like Zamir White and Devin White shuffled on the roster fringe.</p></li><li><p>Selected in Round 4.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> Harrison delivered WR2 fantasy production in all 4 games paired with Jacoby Brissett and TE Trey McBride last season, outscoring Michael Wilson in each contest.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in Round 6 (pick 3 in round) as WR4/Flex.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Drafting Kittle late in Round 7 (outside the top 80) offers strong value even if his international Week 1 snap count is limited, with high-end TE3 potential over the remainder of the season.</p></li><li><p>Drafted pick 11 of Round 7 (outside top 80).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling is projected ahead of Deebo Samuel in 49ers target share and represents a potential late-round breakout in an efficient Kyle Shanahan offense.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in Round 9/10 turn.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rashid Shaheed:</strong> Shaheed offers expanded target and rushing upside following Seattle's 3-year, $50M+ contract investment, especially with Jake Bobo and Tory Horton sidelined.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in Round 11.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jalen Coker:</strong> Coker posted four top-25 fantasy WR weekly finishes over his final seven games last season, making him an upside late-round bench target in Carolina's ascending offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tony Pollard:</strong> Pollard is an undervalued flex target who has surpassed 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of his last four NFL seasons.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>Players You NEED to Draft this Season | Fantasy Focus</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalize on RB scarcity by drafting two top-20 rushers in the first three rounds, then leverage deep middle-to-late round values at WR and QB.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Field Yates is drafting Henry well above ADP (ranked 11th overall vs. ESPN ADP of 17), highlighting his high floor and elite ceiling with the third-most 20+ fantasy point games over the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>Finished 2nd in NFL rushing yards for 4 consecutive seasons.</p></li><li><p>3rd-most 20+ fantasy point games among RBs over past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Mike Clay views Love as a league-winning RB target in Round 3 despite an early injury concern, noting that all nine RBs drafted in the top 12 of the NFL draft over recent years finished as top-12 fantasy RBs as rookies.</p></li><li><p>Last 9 RBs drafted top-12 in NFL draft finished top-12 in rookie fantasy points.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Liz Loza recommends drafting Loveland as the top receiving weapon in Chicago, pointing to his strong late-season production (TE2 from Weeks 9-18) and 150 vacated targets in the offense.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 12 targets, 7 receptions, and 94.5 receiving yards over last 4 games including playoffs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Michael Pittman Jr.:</strong> Daniel Dobish targets Pittman in middle rounds due to an advantageous role running short-to-intermediate routes attached to Aaron Rodgers.</p></li><li><p>111 vacated targets from Michael Pittman Jr. leaving his previous role.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Mike Clay projects a strong bounce back for Wilson entering his fourth round ADP, supported by an upgrade at QB in Geno Smith.</p></li><li><p>4th round ADP.</p></li><li><p>Averaged over 14 fantasy points per game prior to injury.</p></li><li><p>Top-7 in targets his first three NFL seasons with zero games missed.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jayden Daniels:</strong> Liz Loza ranks Daniels as her QB2 overall for 2026, anticipating a major bounce back with a healthier supporting cast and offensive coordinator David Blough.</p></li><li><p>Finished as QB5 in fantasy as a rookie in 2024.</p></li><li><p>Limited to 4 fully healthy games in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Davante Adams:</strong> Liz Loza warns of severe TD regression for Adams, preferring Ladd McConkey at similar 5th-round draft cost due to Adams' age and unsustainable red zone dependency.</p></li><li><p>110 of 223 fantasy points scored via end zone looks (more than double any flex player in 2025).</p></li><li><p>Turning 34 years old on Christmas Eve.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo:</strong> Mike Clay continues targeting Skattebo in the 4th/5th round despite veteran additions, noting his high fantasy ceiling when commanding lead-back volume.</p></li><li><p>Averaged over 19 fantasy points per game and scored 6 TDs across 6 games with bulk snaps.</p></li><li><p>Would have ranked RB6 over a full season at that pace.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy: RB Priority vs. Late QB:</strong> The panel broadly agrees on waiting on QB until Round 10+ while securing two RBs within the top three rounds due to a steep drop-off outside the top 20 RBs.</p></li><li><p>Targeting 2 RBs in first 3 rounds.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Mike Clay highlights Ferguson as a priority late-round TE flier in the high-powered Rams offense, who could emerge as the No. 3 passing option with TE1 upside.</p></li><li><p>Second-round draft pick TE.</p></li><li><p>Essentially free/undrafted in standard leagues.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>Don't Draft Yet! 10 Must-Know Preseason Fantasy Football Takeaways (Week 2 Recap)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Preseason usage shifts&#8212;such as rookie receivers handling diverse route trees, young backs securing pass-down work, and shifting slot rates&#8212;offer major early-season draft value and high contingent upside before regular-season roles solidify.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Mike Washington Jr.:</strong> If Ashton Jeanty misses significant time or the season due to a practice injury, Mike Washington Jr. becomes an automatic top-20 fantasy RB due to his size-speed profile, college efficiency (33rd in yards after contact per attempt, 17th in breakaway rate), and 3-down receiving ability.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 7.07 yards after contact per attempt on 15 preseason carries.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Shedeur Sanders:</strong> Shedeur Sanders is expected to be named the Browns starting QB over Deshaun Watson following a superior Week 2 preseason performance operating Monken's offense with timing and clean-pocket execution.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> De'Zhaun Stribling is handling an every-alignment workload (X, Z, F) and heavy initial volume (targeted on 4 of the first 5 pass plays and 6 of the first 8 in Week 2), making him an elite high-upside draft target at WR 4 cost.</p></li><li><p>Draftable at WR4 ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tetairoa McMillan:</strong> Tetairoa McMillan has seen his slot alignment jump to 40-45% in preseason (up from roughly 12% in college/prior years), unlocking easier manufactured targets similar to Drake London's usage.</p></li><li><p>40% to 45% preseason slot rate on ~23 routes.</p></li><li><p>Previous out-wide rate was ~88%.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Jonathon Brooks is 21 months removed from ACL surgery and operated as the primary back with Bryce Young in Week 2, making him a strong draft target ahead of ADP consensus (Derek Brown ranks him at RB26-RB27 vs. RB29 consensus).</p></li><li><p>Played 12 to 13 snaps with Bryce Young in Week 2.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> MarShawn Lloyd played 9 of 14 snaps with Jordan Love in Week 2 and possesses a standalone 7-9 touch receiving/change-of-pace role with league-winning upside if Josh Jacobs misses time.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Malachi Fields:</strong> Malachi Fields received rest protection with the starters in Week 2 while Darius Slayton played the entire game, indicating Fields has established himself in 2-WR sets on the outside opposite Malik Nabers.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Antonio Williams:</strong> Antonio Williams logged 58.3% of his preseason snaps out wide with 4 of 6 targets coming from the slot, making him a candidate to earn Washington's primary slot receiver role.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyle Williams:</strong> Kyle Williams posted a 20.4 average depth of target and dominant man-coverage wins across both preseason games, potentially prompting the Patriots to explore trading Kayshon Boutte.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kevin Coleman Jr.:</strong> Kevin Coleman Jr. offers significant slot separation and run-after-catch ability, projecting to earn a starting slot receiver role for Miami before the end of his rookie season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Ted Hurst:</strong> Ted Hurst played all 8 snaps with Baker Mayfield in Week 2 and displayed a complete intermediate route tree at the X position, positioning him to compete with Jalen McMillan for starting snaps.</p></li><li><p>Earned 6 targets on 15 routes in Week 1.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Terrance Ferguson is cross-training across X, Z, F, and Y receiver roles in the Rams offense, carrying extreme athletic upside that makes him an intriguing sleeper (ranked TE15 by Scott Barrett).</p></li><li><p>Rams led the NFL in 13 personnel usage last season.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>The 10 Biggest Fantasy Takeaways from Preseason Week 2 with Dwain McFarland</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalize on backfield role clarity and late-round ADP discrepancies identified through preseason utilization&#8212;prioritizing standalone handcuffs like Jonah Coleman and MarShawn Lloyd, while targeting high-efficiency receiving assets like Colston Loveland, DeVonta Smith, and Matthew Golden.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Suffered an ankle sprain that is not considered long-term, but should be dropped from late round 1 down to the middle or end of round 2 (around overall 17 to 19, RB10 to RB12) due to injury risk and possible early-season limitations.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry ranking: 19th overall, RB12 (dropped from 6th overall).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Washington Jr.:</strong> Locked in as the clear-cut RB2 for the Raiders in a Klint Kubiak offense; viable late-round target / handcuff knocking on the top 150 overall.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry ranking: 148th overall, RB49.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Deshaun Watson:</strong> Named Cleveland's starting QB but holds minimal standalone fantasy value (ranked QB31/QB32), with projected volatility and potential benching for Shedeur Sanders during the season.</p></li><li><p>13 fantasy points per game in 19 starts with Browns.</p></li><li><p>48th in yards per attempt and 36th in TD rate among 50 QBs with 500+ attempts since 2022.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> High-priority target in the Browns passing game expected to play a versatile 'Zay Flowers' role with manufactured touches on sweeps and play-action.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry ranking: 81st overall.</p></li><li><p>Dwain McFarland ranking: 90th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Target in rounds 8&#8211;9 (especially on ESPN where he is discounted); ranked ahead of Sam LaPorta at TE8 due to high TD upside and target share with Brock Purdy.</p></li><li><p>TE8 for both hosts (Berry 85th overall, McFarland 88th overall).</p></li><li><p>23% target share in 10 completed games last season.</p></li><li><p>25 TDs in 41 career games with Brock Purdy.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Projected as Green Bay's starting X WR with a consolidated target tree; target in round 10 on Yahoo/Sleeper for WR2/WR3 upside.</p></li><li><p>86% route participation with Jordan Love in preseason game.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Top priority standalone handcuff in managed/redraft leagues due to standalone contingent upside if Josh Jacobs misses time or faces league discipline.</p></li><li><p>Targeted in 120s&#8211;130s range overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Direct early-down and goal-line backup to J.K. Dobbins in Denver; preferred over R.J. Harvey (restricted to passing-down work) at current ADP.</p></li><li><p>Berry ranking: 152nd overall (targeted in rounds 10-11).</p></li><li><p>Yahoo ADP: pick 130.</p></li><li><p>Sleeper ADP: pick 160.</p></li><li><p>Harvey had 33% of fantasy points from TDs and averaged 5.6 FPPG in non-TD games last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Viable in rounds 5&#8211;6 as the primary early-down back (55&#8211;60% rush share), but Kenneth Gainwell will command passing downs and two-minute drill work, capping Irving's PPR ceiling in trailing scripts.</p></li><li><p>Irving: 60% snaps on drive 1, 0 routes on passing downs.</p></li><li><p>Averages 11.8 FPPG in career games with single-digit target share.</p></li><li><p>Berry ranks Irving RB23, Gainwell RB34.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Late-round TE stash in high-powered Rams offense with potential to quickly rise into top 5&#8211;6 TE territory if route participation tops 80% in Week 1.</p></li><li><p>DNP with starters in preseason Week 2 (rested like a starter).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Emmett Johnson:</strong> Next man up for early-down rushing work behind Kenneth Walker in Kansas City, with Amari Demercado and Brashard Smith competing for passing downs.</p></li><li><p>Entered preseason game second behind Walker on the 4th drive.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Elite breakout TE candidate in Ben Johnson's condensed offense; possesses downfield receiving profile and TD upside matching past elite producers.</p></li><li><p>McFarland and Berry co-finalist for Ride or Die.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>2026 Fantasy Football Mailbag Q&amp;A | Your Draft &amp; Training Camp Questions Answered! (08/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> In 3-WR leagues and modern drafts, managers should leverage value on elite early RBs and flood the middle rounds with high-upside WRs, while refusing to overreact to team defensive improvements when projecting high-volume passing offenses.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Nico Collins:</strong> Dan has ranked Collins as his WR7 overall, citing elite per-route metrics as an isolated X-receiver and projecting a strong passing connection with C.J. Stroud.</p></li><li><p>WR7 ranking in Dan's personal ranks.</p></li><li><p>Paced for 104 catches, 1,513 yards, 9 TDs on 156 targets in games with &gt;18% snap share in 2024.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Stefon Diggs:</strong> Diggs is positioned to absorb high target volume from Jayden Daniels as an underneath slot receiver due to Washington's offensive line and tackle vulnerabilities.</p></li><li><p>52% slot rate currently compared to 25% in his prime.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dak Prescott &amp; Dallas Offense:</strong> A potential defensive turnaround in Dallas will not diminish passing volume for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, or George Pickens due to high rates of pre-snap motion and play-action in Brian Schottenheimer's scheme.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy (3-WR Leagues):</strong> Avoid reaching for WRs in early rounds simply due to lineup requirements. Secure top-12 value RBs in the first two rounds, bypass early QB/TE, and aggressively draft the mid-round WR tier.</p></li><li><p>11-12 elite RBs in the opening two rounds.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Top Draft Selection (#3 Overall in Half-PPR):</strong> Ja'Marr Chase should remain the pick at #3 overall even in RB-heavy draft environments, locking in elite receiver upside rather than forcing a RB like James Cook.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Auction Strategy (Stars and Scrubs):</strong> Allocating up to 70% of total auction budget to secure both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs is viable in standard shallow formats (start 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex), provided the manager actively works the waiver wire for depth.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Premium Leagues (1.5 PPR for TE):</strong> Elevate reception-heavy TEs over pure touchdown-dependent options, prioritizing targets like Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, and Isaiah Likely.</p></li><li><p>1.5 points per reception for TEs vs 1.0 PPR for other positions.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>2026 PPR Superflex Fantasy Football LIVE Mock Draft! (08/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Superflex draft value is heavily determined by managing the drop-off at QB without blindly reaching; waiting on QB allows drafting elite skill-position talent, but teams must carefully map out viable fallback starters.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Superflex Draft Strategy:</strong> QB runs in 12-team Superflex formats frequently ignite right after the top 12 RBs are off the board (typically at the rounds 2-3 turn). Waiting past round 4 can leave a team scrambling for volatile bridge options, but passing on QB in early rounds unlocks elite skill-position builds.</p></li><li><p>5 QBs drafted within 6 picks.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> Nacua should be the consensus WR2 drafted behind Ja'Marr Chase if healthy and facing no or minimal league discipline.</p></li><li><p>Drafted pick 6 overall.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as WR2.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton took every first-team snap in the preseason opener and possesses immense system fit upside under the coaching staff; he is ranked ahead of Derrick Henry and De'Von Achane.</p></li><li><p>Drafted pick 2.11.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> Olave is positioned for an efficiency and TD leap with Tyler Shough attacking downfield concepts in Kellen Moore's scheme, overcoming previous disconnect issues seen with Derek Carr.</p></li><li><p>Drafted round 4.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TE Valuation:</strong> Given widespread injuries across the TE4 to TE10 tier, elite TEs like Brock Bowers and Trey McBride maintain immense positional advantage even in multi-flex Superflex formats.</p></li><li><p>Brock Bowers drafted 30th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Sam LaPorta:</strong> LaPorta is dealing with a hip injury making him questionable for Week 1; fantasy managers should treat the potential ADP slide as a buying opportunity in Drew Petzing's offense.</p></li><li><p>Drafted 86th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Burden carries top-20 WR upside in Ben Johnson's offense due to heavy target volume projections and exceptional run-after-catch ability.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR19/WR20.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> With Chuba Hubbard battling lingering soft-tissue hamstring issues, Brooks is an attractive mid-to-late round high-ceiling RB2 target if he secures lead duties upon full health.</p></li><li><p>Drafted round 8.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tre Tucker &amp; Jalen Nailor:</strong> Preseason usage indicates Tre Tucker is functioning as the Raiders' WR1 (rested with starters), whereas Jalen Nailor played extensively with second-string reserves.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling has displayed high-level route separation and big-play ability in preseason, offering WR3 upside drafted at WR4/WR5 cost, though his target volume may be capped when 49ers veterans are fully active.</p></li><li><p>4 catches for 46 yards on 5 targets in preseason.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Don't FORGET About These 11 Players! Dak, Bucky, Higgins, &amp; More! (08/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Preseason injuries and suspension concerns are creating significant draft discounts on proven producers like Josh Jacobs, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, and David Montgomery, while late-round QBs like Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones offer high-upside arbitrage.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> Due to potential suspension concerns alongside early draft capital costs, Nacua should be moved behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba to roughly 5th overall and WR3.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey remains worth drafting at 5th or 6th overall despite an undisclosed tightness issue, given league-winning upside in PPR formats.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Dealing with a toe injury but expected ready for Week 1, Egbuka is viable at the Round 3/4 turn or around pick 32 overall, ahead of Garrett Wilson and Tetairoa McMillan.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Jacobs &amp; MarShawn Lloyd:</strong> Jacobs is worth drafting in the middle of Round 3 despite groin and suspension concerns, and fantasy managers drafting Jacobs should pay up to secure MarShawn Lloyd as a direct handcuff after Lloyd took every preseason snap with starters.</p></li><li><p>Top 12-13 RB projection over 15-17 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Breece Hall:</strong> Hall has fallen into Round 4 consideration due to offensive context and injury concerns, making him an avoid in Round 3 but a target in Round 4.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Love's high ankle sprain creates draft value; managers should target him in the middle to late Round 3 expecting strong pass-catching and touch volume.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Strategy (George Kittle, Tyler Warren, Sam LaPorta):</strong> Rather than spending early capital on top TEs, managers should target Tyler Warren in Round 5, George Kittle in Round 8, or pivot to late-round TE builds.</p></li><li><p>LaPorta in Round 7.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo &amp; Tyrone Tracy Jr.:</strong> Tyrone Tracy Jr. is no longer an appealing standalone draft pick or standalone handcuff due to backfield competition, while Skattebo projects for 40-45 receptions as a late Round 4 or Round 5 selection.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dak Prescott:</strong> Prescott possesses top-3 QB upside in a pass-heavy Cowboys offense, having paced for over 4,800 passing yards between Weeks 7 and 17 last season.</p></li><li><p>5% TD rate in previous season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Baker Mayfield:</strong> Mayfield is a premier late-round QB target with an improved offensive line and new coordinator Zach Robinson, after averaging 24.7 fantasy PPG over a 28-game stretch from 2023 to 2025 in 6-point passing TD formats.</p></li><li><p>24.9 fantasy PPG in first 6 games of 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Daniel Jones:</strong> Jones is an undervalued late-round flyer coming off injury after finishing as QB14 per game last year without heavy reliance on rushing production.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Montgomery is strong Round 5 value in Houston with double-digit TD upside (33 TDs across the last three seasons) and goal-line exclusivity.</p></li><li><p>86% catch rate last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Irving is a Round 5 target with strong receiving upside (top-10 in yards per route run among RBs over back-to-back seasons), projecting for 55+ receptions behind an improved Tampa Bay line.</p></li><li><p>Paced for 81 catches through 4 games last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tee Higgins:</strong> Higgins is a priority Round 3 target who has scored 21 TDs in his last 27 games and produced as WR4 over his last 16 games alongside Joe Burrow.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Godwin:</strong> Godwin is returning to the slot and represents outstanding value at Round 7 or later (Round 6 in 3-WR formats) with positive camp health reports.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> Due to a three-way receiver rotation with Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden in a run-heavy Packers scheme, Watson is better targeted in Round 6 rather than Round 5.</p></li><li><p>Requires 100-105 targets for top-24 WR finish.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rookie/Early RB Ranking: Jeanty vs. Walker vs. Hampton:</strong> Adam ranks Omarion Hampton &gt; Kenneth Walker III &gt; Ashton Jeanty; Dan ranks Walker &gt; Hampton &gt; Jeanty; Jamie ranks Jeanty &gt; Walker &gt; Hampton for Round 2 picks.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Mock Draft MAYHEM! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/21</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target rising values like Jameson Williams in light of Sam LaPorta's injury uncertainty, be wary of backup TEs like Oronde Gadsden slipping down depth charts, and adapt draft strategies when unexpected picks disrupt early rounds.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Sam LaPorta:</strong> Dan Campbell declined to commit to Sam LaPorta playing Week 1 due to a hip injury that may be related to last season's surgery; drafters should drop him roughly a round or draft a late-round backup TE to cover Week 1.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> With Sam LaPorta banged up, Jameson Williams represents a screaming ADP value who should see increased early-season target volume.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Rookie 49ers WR De'Zhaun Stribling has seen extremely high target volume with the first-team offense through two preseason games, confirming training camp buzz, though his ADP is rising rapidly.</p></li><li><p>Highest rookie target share through two preseason games.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Oronde Gadsden II:</strong> Playing deep into preseason games indicates he is buried on the depth chart; fantasy managers should remove him from draft boards.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery &amp; Woody Marks:</strong> Woody Marks' strong preseason performance could signal a split backfield role, slightly dinging Montgomery's upside, though Montgomery sitting out indicates he remains the clear starter.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Blake Corum:</strong> Blake Corum offers standalone 'flex with benefits' value and holds league-winning upside if Kyren Williams misses time.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Bo Nix is undervalued and nearly undrafted in 1-QB leagues despite finishing as QB6 last year, QB7 his rookie year, and having upgraded weapons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kenneth Walker III:</strong> Walker is a priority target at the Round 1/2 turn over options like Saquon Barkley, Ashton Jeanty, De'Von Achane, and Omarion Hampton due to workload certainty on an efficient offense.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Life Show</h2><p><em>The Worst (&amp; Best) Way You Can Start Your Fantasy Football Drafts in 2026</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalizing on ADP inefficiencies&#8212;such as selecting elite RBs (Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry) and exploiting injury discounts on top-tier WRs (Malik Nabers)&#8212;gives drafters an edge over reaching on early QBs, injured backs, or backfield committees.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs:</strong> Drafters at the 1.01 should lock in Jahmyr Gibbs due to his elite athletic ceiling and the Lions being projected to score 24+ points every week without David Montgomery.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Avoid drafting Jeremiyah Love at the Round 2/3 turn due to ankle injury uncertainty and Atlanta's reliance on Tyler Allgeier, which reduces urgency to rush him back.</p></li><li><p>potential 4 to 5 week absence.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Malik Nabers:</strong> Target Malik Nabers at the 2.12/3.01 turn; he offers high-end WR1 ceiling and projectable volume despite returning from an ACL injury, posting 17.7 PPG, 83.7 YPG, and a 29% target share across four healthy games last season.</p></li><li><p>15+ PPG projection.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Fade Josh Jacobs in the second round (ADP 27-28 on Sleeper/ESPN) due to off-field disciplinary uncertainty, nagging injuries, and potential split workload with MarShawn Lloyd.</p></li><li><p>round 4 high-stakes ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Nico Collins:</strong> Nico Collins gains projected receiving and TD share following Jayden Higgins' injury, making him a priority target in the late second round.</p></li><li><p>10+ projected targets per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaxon Smith-Njigba:</strong> Do not select JSN over Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua at 1.03; despite posting a 36% target share last season, Seattle's lower pass volume and new coordinator present volatility.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyren Williams:</strong> Avoid Kyren Williams at the 2.09 turn as Blake Corum began siphoning 40% of goal-line touches and eating into the overall workload.</p></li><li><p>4.8 YPC.</p></li><li><p>9.4% explosive rush rate (ranked 28th).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> In half and full-PPR formats, draft Brock Bowers at the 2.09 turn to secure a 15 PPG positional advantage at TE.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> Passing on Round 2 skill players for Josh Allen at 2.07 carries severe opportunity cost; drafters should wait on QBs like Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, or Justin Herbert.</p></li><li><p>2.07 redraft ADP vs. early 4th round in high-stakes.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Target Derrick Henry in the second round for unmatched TD security, having appeared on 63% and 48% of ESPN fantasy playoff rosters over his two seasons in Baltimore.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kenneth Walker III:</strong> Kenneth Walker III is primed for an RB1 breakout in Kansas City with Zach Charbonnet gone and vacated backfield touches alongside Patrick Mahomes.</p></li><li><p>20+ projected touches per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Chase Brown is an elite early second-round target operating as an uncontested bell cow in a high-powered Bengals offense facing the NFL's 3rd-easiest schedule.</p></li><li><p>22.3 PPG finish last season.</p></li><li><p>target share rose from 10% to 15%.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Omarion Hampton is overpriced in Round 2 due to Mike McDaniel's hot-hand committee approach alongside Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell.</p></li><li><p>projected 70-20-10 or hot-hand backfield split.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Five Busts For 2026 &amp; Jeanty Injury</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafting players at high ADPs despite unresolved injuries (Jeremiyah Love, Malik Nabers) or flawed physical profiles and competition (Omarion Hampton, Bhayshul Tuten, Javonte Williams) introduces extreme downside risk into fantasy drafts.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Avoid drafting Jeanty near the 1st/2nd round turn until clearer information emerges on his practice ankle sprain; his range of outcomes now includes reduced early-season workloads and re-injury risk.</p></li><li><p>End of first round / beginning of second round draft range.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Fourth-round rookie back is the primary candidate for an expanded role if Jeanty misses time, possessing elite size (6'2, 228 lbs) and speed (4.33 40-yard dash) but questionable upright running style and fumble concerns.</p></li><li><p>1,300-yard season at Arkansas.</p></li><li><p>4 fumbles in 2025, 7 fumbles in 2024.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Nick Chubb:</strong> Announced his retirement over the weekend at age 30 following lingering effects from his previous catastrophic knee injury.</p></li><li><p>Productive peak span 2018&#8211;2023.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Overdrafted in fantasy drafts around rounds 6-7 despite being the 4th overall pick; face target competition from Wan'Dale Robinson and erratic QB play from Cam Ward with low training camp buzz.</p></li><li><p>Projected outside top-36 fantasy WRs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> At TE11 ADP (top-100 overall), Kincaid represents poor opportunity cost, remaining a role player who caught fewer than 40 passes in his third NFL season.</p></li><li><p>Under 40 receptions in 2025.</p></li><li><p>Turning 27 years old in fall 2026.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Javonte Williams:</strong> Avoid at current high-end RB2 draft capital; highly inefficient as a receiver (under 4 yards per reception in 2025) and risks losing third-down duties to Jaydon Blue.</p></li><li><p>1,200 rushing yards in 2025 considered an outlier.</p></li><li><p>RB16&#8211;RB17 range.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Downs:</strong> Limited ceiling around pick 88 ADP due to being locked into slot work, target competition from Keenan Allen, and elevated injury fragility from his small frame.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Drafting Hampton between pick 13 and 18 overall is pure wish-casting after inefficient, injury-marred rookie tape, compounded by scheme fit concerns and offensive line issues.</p></li><li><p>Ranked RB17 by Harris.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malik Nabers:</strong> A second-round ADP carries excessive risk while still practicing in a non-contact jersey late in August following ACL surgery, alongside instability at QB.</p></li><li><p>2nd round ADP.</p></li><li><p>Torn ACL suffered in Week 4 of prior season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Overvalued in the 5th&#8211;6th round range; lacked vision and explosive efficiency as a rookie while facing a backfield committee with Travis Etienne and goal-line threat Chris Rodriguez.</p></li><li><p>Chris Rodriguez carries over $6M guaranteed.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> A high-risk bust candidate due to a punishing play style that invites injuries, existing preseason health questions, and target competition with Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze.</p></li><li><p>Drafted near the round 3/4 turn alongside Davante Adams.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> The #1 bust candidate at his early 3rd-round ADP (RB13-RB14) because a confirmed high-ankle sprain is being downplayed by fantasy drafters, likely costing him multiple games and hindering efficiency.</p></li><li><p>Expected recovery window up to 6 weeks.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</h2><p><em>Feel It or F&#8211;It 8.17.26 with Lex Luthor and Matt Waldman</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Reacting aggressively to preseason injury news creates overpay traps&#8212;swerve murky backfield situations like the Raiders rather than over-drafting backups, and capitalize on discounted talent profiles with defined late-season upside.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty &amp; Mike Washington:</strong> Jeanty's ankle sprain (projected 4&#8211;7 weeks) dropped his ADP to rounds 7&#8211;8, while Washington rose to round 4 in high-stakes leagues. Waldman cautions against overpaying for Washington, suggesting drafters avoid the murky Raiders backfield before round 10 or take Jeanty at round 7&#8211;8 as a potential second-half league winner.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Fernando Mendoza &amp; Kirk Cousins:</strong> Waldman projects Mendoza has a strong chance to start more than 12 games if the Raiders struggle early heading into their Week 13 bye, noting Cousins' declining pocket mobility after his Achilles injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Deshaun Watson &amp; Shedeur Sanders:</strong> Watson is expected to be given a 6-to-8 game window to prove himself in Cleveland before the team considers turning to Sanders.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Biadasz &amp; Chargers Offense:</strong> Biadasz's knee injury harms interior run blocking efficiency (affecting Omarion Hampton's gap/duo runs) and may slightly reduce Justin Herbert's deep-ball opportunities, though quick passing remains largely unaffected.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bucky Irving &amp; Kenneth Gainwell:</strong> Irving seeing preseason action while Gainwell is held out indicates Gainwell is currently viewed and protected as the 1A RB.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jacory Croskey-Merritt &amp; Rachaad White:</strong> Croskey-Merritt (ADP RB38) and White (ADP RB40) have converged in market value due to reports of Croskey-Merritt's improving receiving role, though Waldman still slightly favors White.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Nix is an underrated target in redraft formats due to Denver's passing scheme and surrounding weapons including Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, and Evan Engram.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Despite climbing to round 5 ADP and coming off dual ACL injuries, Brooks offers high upside behind an improving Panthers line due to elite field vision comparable to Curtis Martin or Terrell Davis.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>CeeDee Lamb vs. George Pickens:</strong> Lamb remains the primary receiver to target early in Dallas over Pickens due to superior boundary ball-winning, route versatility from the slot, and yards-after-the-catch ability.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Travis Hunter:</strong> Hunter should be avoided in redraft leagues, as his Year 1 workload is expected to lean heavily toward defense rather than a full receiver role.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Football with Josh &amp; Hayden</h2><p><em>15 Huge Rankings Updates To Make Before Your Rivals Do</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Preseason Week 2 and practice reports provided major fantasy signals: Ashton Jeanty's severe ankle sprain opens immediate standalone value for Mike Washington Jr., David Montgomery faces an imminent touch split with Woody Marks, and multiple young receivers like Matthew Golden, De'Zhaun Stribling, and Kayshon Boutte are gaining substantial traction.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Following a practice ankle injury where players formed a prayer circle and Jeanty couldn't put weight on his leg, draft him no earlier than the late 3rd or 3/4 turn (around Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, and Travis Etienne), assuming 3-4 missed games.</p></li><li><p>Expert consensus rank around 25th overall (3.01).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Mike Washington Jr.:</strong> Washington is the primary beneficiary of Jeanty's ankle sprain and is expected to handle lead duties in Weeks 1 and 2 against Miami and the Chargers; draft him around overall pick 115-120 (RB39 range near Rachaad White and Jordan Mason).</p></li><li><p>RB20-25 weekly projection for early games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Nico Collins &amp; Kayshon Boutte:</strong> With Jayden Higgins tearing his ACL, Houston acquired Kayshon Boutte to serve as a vertical deep threat in 2WR sets, which consolidates underneath, intermediate, and red zone targets directly to Nico Collins.</p></li><li><p>Target Boutte around WR56 / 3rd round for Collins.</p></li><li><p>Collins had 16 end zone targets and only 4 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>David Montgomery &amp; Woody Marks:</strong> Beat reports and preseason usage indicate Montgomery and Marks will split carries near evenly, with Marks playing 100% of CJ Stroud's snaps and shining in pass protection; Montgomery represents a fragile dead-zone RB in round 5.</p></li><li><p>Marks ranked RB43-44.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> Swift has standalone tier status as Chicago's primary back with Kyle Monangai facing an estimated 6-week recovery from an MCL injury; target him at the round 3-4 turn.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Warren:</strong> Despite beat reports favoring Rico Dowdle, Warren started Week 2, showed superior burst and pass protection, and fits the Aaron Rodgers/Mike McCarthy high-target RB archetype.</p></li><li><p>7th round ADP on Yahoo.</p></li><li><p>Steelers RBs projected for around 70-85 targets.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Seattle shut Price down for the remainder of the preseason because the team deems him too valuable to risk while Zach Charbonnet is recovering; target him as an RB2/flex around RB22.</p></li><li><p>Josh ranks at RB22 vs consensus RB25.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling is operating as San Francisco's top rotational receiver and pushing for 2WR sets; draft him ahead of his consensus WR55 ranking (Josh ranks him WR35, Hayden WR39).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Golden is showing superior separation and top-end speed over Christian Watson in camp reps and represents one of the most mispriced rookie WRs in fantasy, currently available in the 100s on Yahoo.</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR44 (Josh) vs WR50 consensus / 100+ ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Stefon Diggs &amp; Chigoziem Okonkwo:</strong> In Washington's 1st-team offense, Diggs only played in the slot in 11 personnel (2 of 3 snaps) while Terry McLaurin and Treylon Burks stayed on the field for 12 personnel; Okonkwo secured near-everydown TE work.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Ferguson slimmed down to play multiple alignments (F, Z, Y, X) and is expanding into quick-hitting underneath mismatch routes in the Rams' offense; take him as a final-round upside TE flier.</p></li><li><p>6'5, 252 lbs frame.</p></li><li><p>50% of 2023 targets were 20+ yards downfield.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>Preseason week 2 recap: Fantasy winners, losers and risers</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Preseason Week 2 provided vital role clarity and injury updates, underscoring the fantasy urgency to draft ascending contingency backs like Mike Washington Jr. and Kaelon Black, while capitalizing on mispriced passing offenses like Green Bay and Denver.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mike Washington Jr. / Ashton Jeanty:</strong> With Ashton Jeanty suffering a left leg injury in practice and Mike Washington Jr. dominating first-team preseason snaps (22 of 26 snaps with starters), Washington is an essential high-priority late-round RB target.</p></li><li><p>Jeanty ADP hovered between 12th and 15th overall on Yahoo.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling has impressed in an inside/outside Z and big-slot role in 11 personnel and should be drafted as a priority bench receiver around WR 40-50 (top-100 overall pick).</p></li><li><p>Ranked WR 40-50 / 97th overall by Matt Harmon.</p></li><li><p>33rd overall NFL draft pick.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kaelon Black:</strong> Black has solidified the 49ers' RB2 role over Jordan James behind Christian McCaffrey with strong pass protection and ground work, making him an elite high-priority handcuff.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jordan Love:</strong> Love is being drafted behind his RB, TE, and top three WRs around ADP 123 on Yahoo, presenting massive standalone QB value in an offense expected to increase tempo and 11 personnel usage.</p></li><li><p>Previous QB5 fantasy finish on resume.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton is becoming a fade/yellow-light pick relative to ADP due to center Tyler Biadasz's season-ending injury, pass-protection competition from Kimani Vidal, and Keaton Mitchell's role in the backfield.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Oronde Gadsden II / Charlie Kolar:</strong> Gadsden is largely undraftable in standard redraft formats as Charlie Kolar played as the solo TE in 11 personnel sets, making Kolar the more intriguing late-round option while Gadsden loses offensive snaps.</p></li><li><p>Gadsden previously drafted in TE 12-22 range.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>AD Mitchell / Garrett Wilson:</strong> Mitchell is locked in as the Jets' X receiver and Wilson as the Z receiver, making Mitchell an appealing high-upside late-round dart throw while rookie Omar Cooper Jr. is limited to slot snaps.</p></li><li><p>Mitchell 6th percentile vs zone, 82nd percentile vs press in Reception Perception charting.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tetairoa McMillan / Jalen Coker:</strong> McMillan and Coker split snaps with identical 60% outside / 40% inside slot alignments with Bryce Young over 20 snaps, creating an expanded slot role for McMillan; Coker represents late-round value.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Ja'Kobi Lane:</strong> Lane is locked in as the Ravens' WR3 at worst and should be drafted in standard redraft leagues as a late-round WR in the top 60-70 range.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Irving has become a draft value at current falling ADP, locking down early-down work behind a top-tier Buccaneers offensive line while Kenneth Gainwell handles obvious passing downs.</p></li><li><p>Started game, rushed on first 3 plays for 14 yards before resting.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tyrone Tracy Jr. / Devin Singletary / Cam Skattebo:</strong> Tracy struggled with a missed blitz assignment in practice and a lost fumble in preseason action, while Singletary started; Skattebo going in the 40s overall is a fade, while Tracy is currently not draftable in standard leagues.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> Williams is a strong target valued ~20 spots ahead of ADP due to Sam LaPorta's injury, Isaac TeSlaa's inability to earn first-team work, and glowing leadership reviews from QB Jared Goff.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.21.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[8 episodes, 9 hours + 6 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82126</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82126</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 22 Aug 2026 01:00:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 8 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82126-full-notes">LINK</a></p><div><hr></div><ul><li><p>&#127939; <strong>Early RB priority</strong>: Secure two RBs within the first three rounds to beat steep baseline drop-offs and declining league-wide passing rates (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#128201; <strong>TE volume regression</strong>: Only 11 of 25 historical TEs with 140-plus targets repeated a top-2 fantasy finish the following season (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Middle-round receiver flat tier</strong>: WR production flattens considerably between WR12 and WR50, making late-round athletic rookie targets more cost-effective than mid-round veterans (<em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; Brock Purdy (QB, SF)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Purdy offers top-5 fantasy QB scoring upside at a discounted QB12 to QB14 draft cost.</p><ul><li><p>Purdy is the only passer over the past two seasons to rank top-5 in passing yards per game and top-12 in rushing yards per game (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li><li><p>Purdy's career 5.8% TD rate sits third-highest among active passers, yet market draft cost continues to suppress his ranking behind less efficient options (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#9889; Chase Brown (RB, CIN)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Brown is positioned for an uncontested, high-volume role in a premier scoring offense.</p><ul><li><p>Brown finished as the overall RB2 over his final eight games with Joe Burrow last season and caught 69 passes (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>).</p></li><li><p>Brown requires an early second-round draft pick around pick 12 to 22 overall, leaving managers little cushion if Cincinnati limits his touch ceiling (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#129522; Davante Adams (WR, LAR)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Adams maintains elite route separation metrics but faces steep team TD regression.</p><ul><li><p>Adams led all 84 qualifying WRs in separation score and commanded the most red-zone targets in football despite missing three games (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p>Matthew Stafford's career-high 7.7% TD rate is due for severe regression, which could drag Adams outside top-30 WR production at age 34 (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128737;&#65039; TreVeyon Henderson (RB, NE)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Henderson holds massive contingent upside but remains stuck in a pass-protection committee.</p><ul><li><p>Henderson demonstrated league-winning standalone talent by compiling over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs as a rookie (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>).</p></li><li><p>Rhamondre Stevenson out-snapped Henderson 70% to 31% in playoff action and played double the trailing snaps due to Henderson's pass-protection struggles (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127794; Jadarian Price (RB, SEA)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Price enters the season with an early-down starting runway in Seattle's run-heavy attack.</p><ul><li><p>Seattle logged 17 rushing TDs and the third-most carries in the league last year, giving Price immediate RB2 volume (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li><li><p>Price posted poor pass-catching metrics in college, and Zach Charbonnet will push for touches once recovered from his knee injury (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128081; The Christian McCaffrey Workload Cliff</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Managers are split on whether McCaffrey's unrivaled red-zone role outweighs his heavy career touch count at age 30.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> McCaffrey finished as a top-two RB in points per game across his last three healthy seasons and led the league with 91 red-zone touches (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Only 16.5% of RBs improve per-game scoring after a 370-touch season, making his 450 touches last year an extreme injury risk (<em>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#9878;&#65039; The Bucky Irving Touch Floor</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Analysts disagree on whether Irving's elusiveness justifies an early fifth-round price tag despite clear goal-line limitations.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Irving averaged over 20 touches per game when active and tied for third in total RB touches through the first month of last season (<em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Irving weighs under 195 pounds, logged zero touches inside the 5-yard line last season, and faces backfield competition from Sean Tucker and Kenneth Gainwell (<em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.21.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[8 episodes, 9 hours + 6 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82126-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82126-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 22 Aug 2026 00:38:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>8 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>9 hours and 6 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>NFC West Preview | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-21-26</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</strong>: <em>Which RBs To Target and Which RBs To Fade This Season (Episode 1011 with Evan Silva, Adam Levitan, John Daigle)</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>10 Ways To DOMINATE Your League - The #1 Draft Strategy in 2026 Fantasy Football</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>8 Fantasy Hot Takes with Daniel Dopp</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>More Flag Players &amp; Cousin Josh's Frag Players</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Late-Round Perspectives: Chris Harris Returns</em> (August 21)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</strong>: <em>Our Sleepers and Top Targets for 2026</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>Rookie heat check: Are we buying or selling preseason hype?</em> (August 21)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>NFC West Preview | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-21-26</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-efficiency assets in proven systems like Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and Rashid Shaheed while exercising caution on heavy volume regression candidates like Trey McBride, Matthew Stafford, and Jadarian Price.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Michael Wilson:</strong> Wilson presents upside in the WR24-WR25 range from a mid-WR4 ADP due to camp reports suggesting he will play a versatile Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp style role and move around the formation.</p></li><li><p>WR37 ADP in consensus PPR.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Trey McBride:</strong> Fade McBride at early Round 2-3 ADP because Arizona's historic 2025 passing volume (649 pass attempts) is due for severe regression, and TEs hitting 140+ targets rarely repeat top-2 finishes the next season.</p></li><li><p>Consensus PPR ADP: 21st overall (TE2).</p></li><li><p>Led NFL TEs with 169 targets and led league in pass routes last year.</p></li><li><p>Historical trend: Only 11 of 25 TEs with 140+ targets finished top-2 the following year.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Puka Nacua:</strong> Nacua is the top overall player in full PPR and second in half PPR despite minor off-field/suspension uncertainty, providing league-winning per-game scoring ceiling.</p></li><li><p>23.6 PPR points per game last year (2.3 PPG ahead of next WR).</p></li><li><p>Outscored Bijan Robinson by 1.6 PPG and Jahmyr Gibbs by 1.9 PPG.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Davante Adams:</strong> Adams is undervalued at WR23 ADP given his elite separation metrics, low catchable target rate positive regression, and heavy concentration of red zone and end zone targets.</p></li><li><p>65% catchable target rate ranked 59th among 76 qualifiers.</p></li><li><p>Led all 84 qualifying WRs in Fantasy Points separation score and win rate.</p></li><li><p>17th in yards per route run; led NFL in red zone and end zone targets despite missing 3 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Matthew Stafford:</strong> Avoid Stafford at QB12 consensus ADP due to extreme TD rate regression following a career-high 7.7% TD rate that is unsustainable.</p></li><li><p>7.7% passing TD rate was 6th-highest by any QB in last 10 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyren Williams:</strong> Kyren Williams has capped upside around RB14 ADP given Blake Corum's expanding backfield share and Williams' low receiving efficiency.</p></li><li><p>RB14 consensus ADP; Draft Sharks rank RB17/RB18.</p></li><li><p>Expected PPR PPG fell from RB13 over the season to RB15 in second half.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Target Ferguson as a late-round TE stash due to his elite athletic profile and hybrid slot/downfield usage.</p></li><li><p>93rd percentile athlete drafted 46th overall.</p></li><li><p>18.3-yard aDOT, 21.0 yards per catch.</p></li><li><p>46% slot route rate and 24% wide alignment as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Brock Purdy:</strong> Purdy is one of the premier QB values at QB14 ADP, offering an elite TD rate in Kyle Shanahan's offense and sneakily productive rushing stats.</p></li><li><p>5.8% career TD rate (3rd-highest among active QBs).</p></li><li><p>17th among QBs in rushing yards per game over past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Draft Evans outside WR2 territory for high TD upside paired with Brock Purdy in San Francisco's efficient offense.</p></li><li><p>12.5% career receiving TD rate (2nd-most receiving TDs among active WRs).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey should not fall past pick 5-7 in any redraft format; if healthy, he maintains overall RB1 upside by multiple points per game.</p></li><li><p>Top-2 RB in PPR PPG in 2022, 2023, and 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Target Kittle at Round 9 ADP for elite upside compared to surrounding replacement-level picks, pairing him with a high-floor late-round TE like Brenton Strange, Juwan Johnson, or T.J. Hockenson while he recovers from his January Achilles tear.</p></li><li><p>TE3 in PPR PPG across 10 full games last season; led TE position in PFF receiving grade.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Exercise caution on Price at RB31 ADP due to shaky pass-game efficiency metrics in college, committee tendencies under the Seahawks staff, and Zach Charbonnet's projected mid-season return.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Rashid Shaheed:</strong> Draft Shaheed as a WR5 sleeper with top-36 WR upside following a $17M/year contract, a full offseason with Sam Darnold, and an expected shift toward higher pass volume in Seattle.</p></li><li><p>WR26 in PPR scoring through Week 9 last year before trade.</p></li><li><p>WR34 in PPR PPG in 2024 with Saints.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Establish The Run Fantasy Football</h2><p><em>Which RBs To Target and Which RBs To Fade This Season (Episode 1011 with Evan Silva, Adam Levitan, John Daigle)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> RBs remain the most critical edge in redraft fantasy football due to shifting NFL run rates and high baseline hit rates in early rounds, making aggressive early investment and high-upside backup stashing the optimal draft approach.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs / Bijan Robinson:</strong> Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are locked in as the consensus 1.01 and 1.02 overall picks in standard half-PPR redraft leagues.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey carries severe workload red flags after reaching the 10th-most touches of the 21st century and experiencing three straight years of declining efficiency, but his receiving floor keeps him viable in the top 5 to 6 picks.</p></li><li><p>30 years old.</p></li><li><p>16.5% historical rate of RBs improving PPG following 370+ touch seasons since 2014 (4 of 24 instances).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonathan Taylor:</strong> Taylor offers elite ceiling upside in the top 8 overall due to a dominant offensive line and expanded pass-game work (46 catches last year), though he is sensitive to negative game scripts.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Chase Brown is a priority target at the Round 1/2 turn (ranked 12th overall by Silva vs. 22 ADP) as Cincinnati's de facto third receiver in an offense with Joe Burrow returning.</p></li><li><p>69 receptions last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Walker is a priority target at the Round 1/2 turn due to a top-10 offensive line and explosive running ability against light boxes in Kansas City, projecting for 300+ touches and roughly 50 receptions.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP 21st overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Achane carries major receiving regression risk with Malik Willis at QB and a coaching staff emphasizing heavy rush volume, making him a risky selection at his early Round 2 ADP (13 overall).</p></li><li><p>10th overall ESPN ADP.</p></li><li><p>188 lbs playing weight.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Saquon Barkley:</strong> Barkley is a strong rebound candidate at the Round 1/2 turn as Philadelphia transitions under Klint Kubiak to more 12 personnel under center, despite aging offensive line concerns.</p></li><li><p>4.1 yards per carry last season.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL in yards before contact per carry in 2024 before Eagles dropped to 23rd.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 15th overall by Silva.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Breece Hall / Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Both backs have explosive top-5 upside but enter drafts with preseason injuries (Hall groin 1.5-2 weeks; Love high ankle sprain and lost starting RG Chase Bisontis), making them riskier early Round 3 clicks.</p></li><li><p>Hall ranked 24 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyren Williams / Javonte Williams:</strong> Daigle recommends fading both Kyren Williams (McVay's low backfield target share, touch share falling from 74% to 60% post-bye due to Blake Corum) and Javonte Williams (57th in YPRR among 59 qualifying RBs). Silva disagrees on Javonte due to Dallas's TD environment.</p></li><li><p>Javonte Williams: 57th of 59 RBs in YPRR (100+ routes), 35 catches last year.</p></li><li><p>Silva rank 23 overall on Javonte.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Quinshon Judkins / Cam Skattebo:</strong> Avoid or dock mid-round dead zone RBs coming off severe leg fractures and committee headwinds (Judkins in Cleveland's low-scoring offense; Skattebo losing work to Najee Harris and Tyrone Tracy).</p></li><li><p>Judkins ADP 45 (ETR rank 56).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Tuten is overvalued in the 40s/50s ADP range given recent coach commentary hinting at a step needed, competition from Chris Rodriguez for early downs/goal line, and a likely three-way Jacksonville committee.</p></li><li><p>Sub-400 scrimmage yards and under 100 touches as rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Etienne / D'Andre Swift:</strong> Target Etienne (Round 4) and Swift over Tuten in the mid rounds; Etienne benefits from Alvin Kamara's knee injury, an elite indoor schedule, and an improved offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Saints projected with 2nd-easiest schedule in NFL.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Henderson provides immense league-winning contingent upside around pick 52 overall if Rhamondre Stevenson misses time, having posted 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>Silva rank 52 overall, ETR rank 59.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jacory Croskey-Merritt:</strong> Croskey-Merritt is an undervalued sleeper target (ADP ~105, ETR rank 87) who flashed top-tier explosive run rates next to Jayden Daniels in Washington.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Coleman is a primary late-round target in Denver's ambiguous backfield who demonstrated strong receiving efficiency (1.73 YPRR, 2nd behind Jeremiyah Love in the class).</p></li><li><p>80 catches on 90 targets over past 3 years.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Handcuffing Strategy:</strong> In 12-team redraft leagues, drafting direct handcuffs to your elite starters (e.g., Tank Bigsby with Saquon Barkley) raises roster floor, while stashing high-upside standalone backup profiles across benches maximizes league-winning contingent value.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Late-Round Sleepers &amp; Handcuffs:</strong> Key late-round priority stashes include Chris Rodriguez (goal-line role), Keaton Mitchell (explosive flex), Dylan Sampson (Munkin receiving role), Mike Washington (freak athlete behind Jeanty), MarShawn Lloyd (upside behind Jacobs), Tyler Allgeier, and Emmett Johnson (KC direct backup).</p></li><li><p>Sampson: 2.0+ YPRR in college (one of only 3 backs).</p></li><li><p>Keaton Mitchell: 8-10 projected touches per game.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>10 Ways To DOMINATE Your League - The #1 Draft Strategy in 2026 Fantasy Football</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft two RBs within the first three rounds to exploit extreme positional scarcity, then leverage late-round mispricings at QB, TE, and WR to maximize roster value.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Slot Preference &amp; Round 1 Strategy:</strong> The top draft slots in order of preference are 1.01, 1.02, 1.05, 1.04, 1.03, and 1.06, driven by elite RB upside (Gibbs, Bijan, McCaffrey) over early WRs.</p></li><li><p>Jahmyr Gibbs averages 28 fantasy points per game in his career without David Montgomery.</p></li><li><p>Christian McCaffrey finishes 1st or 2nd at RB in fantasy points per game in healthy seasons (approx. 60% health rate; 67% championship appearance rate two seasons prior).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Early-Round Draft Approach:</strong> Target two RBs by the end of Round 3 (via RB-RB, WR-RB-RB, or RB-WR-RB) because middle-to-late round RB value is thin while mid-to-late round WR value is abundant.</p></li><li><p>Mandatory 24 starting RBs in standard 12-team formats across 32 NFL teams.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>1QB League QB Strategy:</strong> Wait to be the last manager in standard 12-team leagues to draft a QB, targeting low-cost rushing QBs in 4-point passing TD formats or Dak Prescott in 6-point passing TD formats.</p></li><li><p>In 6-point per passing TD formats, Dak Prescott is targeted 3 to 4 rounds cheaper than Joe Burrow.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Pairing Strategy:</strong> Wait on TE in 12-team leagues by drafting value picks Tucker Kraft or George Kittle and pairing them with early-season bridge options like Dallas Goedert or Isaiah Likely.</p></li><li><p>Dallas Goedert has the easiest early-season strength of schedule at TE.</p></li><li><p>Tucker Kraft projected for 70% route share rising to 80% in second half.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Parker Washington:</strong> Identify Parker Washington as a primary 'Exodia' target who is mispriced by approximately five rounds and has WR1 ceiling operating out of the slot role.</p></li><li><p>Drafted roughly 5 rounds below perceived true value.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>TreVeyon Henderson vs. Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Fade TreVeyon Henderson at his elevated ADP and prioritize Rhamondre Stevenson, who commanded the primary backfield workload and efficiency down the stretch.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson had a 70% snap share in playoff games compared to Henderson's 31%.</p></li><li><p>Henderson averaged 4 fantasy points per game in the playoffs.</p></li><li><p>Patriots EPA per play on/off split was +0.25 with Stevenson vs. -0.30 with Henderson.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late-Round Sleepers &amp; Dart Throws:</strong> Target Tank Dell and Malik Washington with final-round picks for high ceiling outcomes in deeper or competitive drafts.</p></li><li><p>Malik Washington viewed as potential 100+ target upside player with last pick.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>8 Fantasy Hot Takes with Daniel Dopp</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Evaluating volume, role clarity, and injury regression provides immense draft leverage across early, middle, and late rounds.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tank Dell &amp; Jaylin Noel:</strong> Following Jayden Higgins' season-ending ACL tear, Tank Dell offers the highest ceiling in Houston's offense despite injury recovery and slight frame (165 lbs), while Jaylin Noel serves as an athletic late-round or waiver target for short-area volume.</p></li><li><p>Tank Dell averaged over 12 fantasy PPG in first two NFL seasons.</p></li><li><p>Jaylin Noel recorded a 4.30s 40-yard dash and 41.5-inch vertical.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dalton Schultz:</strong> Higgins' injury reopens target opportunity for Schultz as a streaming TE2 or late-round target in deeper formats.</p></li><li><p>Dalton Schultz ESPN ADP is 167 (undrafted in standard 16-round ESPN drafts).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Stribling is generating significant preseason target volume in the 49ers' offense and represents a high-upside late-round WR4 target.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on 56% of preseason routes (11 catches for 109 yards).</p></li><li><p>Logged 3 receptions for 25 yards on a 50% target share during the opening drive with Brock Purdy.</p></li><li><p>Current ADP is WR64; Berry ranks him WR50 with plans to move him into the high 40s.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Positive medical reports suggest Kittle could return earlier than previously anticipated (potentially Weeks 1-3), making him a draft value with top-5 TE upside once active.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> Dopp predicts McCaffrey will finish outside the top 10 fantasy RBs due to massive cumulative workload and age cliff, while Berry views him as a top-3 overall back due to unrivaled red-zone and receiving volume.</p></li><li><p>450 total touches across regular season and playoffs last year at age 30.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL with 91 red zone touches (15 more than second place).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Brock Purdy:</strong> Purdy is projected to finish as a top-5 fantasy QB, backed by consistent elite per-game efficiency and under-the-radar rushing production.</p></li><li><p>Only QB over the past two seasons to rank top 5 in passing YPG and top 12 in rushing YPG.</p></li><li><p>Leads NFL QBs in yards per pass attempt and ranks 2nd in fantasy points per pass attempt since Week 14, 2022.</p></li><li><p>Ranks QB6 in points per game since first career start.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Michael Pittman Jr.:</strong> Dopp projects Pittman to beat ADP as Aaron Rodgers' primary short-to-intermediate target, whereas Berry fades him due to low yardage per catch, low TD upside, and half-PPR inefficiency.</p></li><li><p>111+ targets in each of the last five seasons.</p></li><li><p>Aaron Rodgers averaged 5.8 air yards per throw last season (QB33 / lowest in NFL).</p></li><li><p>Pittman averaged under 50 receiving YPG and under 9 PPG in half-PPR over the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>Dopp ranks Pittman WR25; Berry ranks Pittman WR46 (ADP WR40).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>A.J. Brown:</strong> Brown is projected to deliver a career-best fantasy season paired with Drake Maye in New England due to unmatched deep-target efficiency and massive team target share.</p></li><li><p>A.J. Brown leads the NFL in TDs on throws of 15+ air yards over the past 4 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Price represents an elite target as an RB2 drafted in the 9th round of ESPN leagues, stepping into Seattle's run-heavy scheme while Zach Charbonnet works back from injury.</p></li><li><p>Seattle had 17 rushing TDs and the 3rd most carries in the NFL last season.</p></li><li><p>Dopp ranks Price RB19 (predicts top-15 finish); Berry ranks Price RB25; ESPN ADP is RB26 (9th round).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Concepcion is a bold sleeper candidate to lead all rookie WRs in fantasy PPG due to manufactured gadget touches and open target competition in Todd Monken's Browns offense.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on 27% of routes in preseason debut with a 14-yard rushing TD.</p></li><li><p>Current ADP is WR52; Berry ranks him WR48.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> Berry targets Watson at his Round 7 ADP for high-end TD and yardage efficiency with vacated targets in Green Bay, while Dopp refuses to draft him due to persistent soft-tissue injuries and a career sub-20% target share.</p></li><li><p>Watson played 14, 9, 15, and 10 games across his first four seasons; peak target share of 19%.</p></li><li><p>Finished as WR15 over the final 7 games of last season (Weeks 11-18).</p></li><li><p>Earned 42% of Green Bay's end zone targets last season (7th highest in NFL).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Davante Adams:</strong> Berry forecasts Adams to finish outside the top 30 fantasy WRs due to severe TD regression for Matthew Stafford, age 34 decline, and low yardage efficiency.</p></li><li><p>Adams ranked 29th among WRs with under 60 receiving YPG last season.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL with a 54% end zone target share last season.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Stafford threw 4,700 yards and 40+ TDs as QB2 last year (previous finishes: QB27, QB16, QB31).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton is Dopp's primary 'Ride or Die' player for 2026, possessing top-5 RB upside as the lead goal-line and receiving back in Mike McDaniel's Chargers offense.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>More Flag Players &amp; Cousin Josh's Frag Players</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Zay Flowers stands out as Chris Harris's top Flag Player due to high route quality and impending TD regression, while Cousin Josh's Frag list features a massive philosophical disagreement over Bucky Irving's redraft draft cost and durability.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Harris's #1 Flag Player for 2026; drafted in Round 3, finished as WR8 last year, ranked 2nd in NFL play-action receiving yards, and possesses massive TD positive-regression potential beyond his 6-touchdown career ceiling with Lamar Jackson's deep-ball aggression.</p></li><li><p>WR8 finish last season.</p></li><li><p>Targeted in Round 3 (Picks 24-30).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bucky Irving:</strong> Major debate: Harris flags Irving at #2 as an elite Round 4/5 value with top-10 touch upside (averaged 20+ touches when active despite playing hurt), whereas Josh frags him at #2, arguing his 195-pound frame, 0 touches inside the 5-yard line, post-injury inefficiency, and backfield competition make him an overpriced RB24-25 who belongs in Round 6.</p></li><li><p>Tied for 3rd in RB touches through first 4 weeks last year.</p></li><li><p>Drafted end of Round 4/early Round 5 vs Pick 13 ADP in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> Target in Rounds 5-6 as Flag Player #3; finished as standard WR4/PPR WR5 from Week 10 onward once Detroit expanded his route tree with shallow crosses, curls vs two-deep shells, and quick screens.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> Target in early Round 3 (ranked WR10 by Harris vs WR14 ADP); recent hamstring injury absence in joint practices is considered precautionary, and he has WR1 alpha target share upside in the offense.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chris Rodriguez:</strong> Late-round RB stash (Round 11-12 or waiver target); established connection with offensive coordinator Liam Coen and profiles as the goal-line power complement to Bhayshul Tuten.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rashee Rice:</strong> Frag Player #1: Complete fade at current ADP (Pick 30 / WR12). Josh ranks him WR26 due to legal/off-field issues, knee rehabilitation, low average depth of target (ADOT ~3.2), and low-volume slant-heavy dependency.</p></li><li><p>571 receiving yards last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Harold Fannin:</strong> Frag Player #3: Fade at early Round 7 ADP (Pick 74). Josh argues high draft capital rookie WRs (Concepcion, Boston) and poor QB play cap his volume, preferring to wait multiple rounds for TEs like Dallas Goedert (40 picks later) or Juwan Johnson (70 picks later).</p></li><li><p>731 yards and 72 catches as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Frag Player #4: Fade at QB9 ceiling price tag (Pick ~80s / late Round 7). Josh and Chris both rank him QB16, highlighting inconsistent passing (only 6 games over 200 pass yards), injury risk (medical tent visits in ~40% of starts), and better late-round QB values like Goff, Stafford, Purdy, or Bo Nix.</p></li><li><p>487 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs over 14 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Frag Player #5: Fade at Round 3 turn (ADP 28 / RB14). Josh ranks him RB24 (Harris RB22) citing a high ankle sprain, a brutal 11-game opening schedule, poor projected Arizona offense, and Tyler Allgeier stealing early-down touches.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Lowered slightly in redraft rankings to 13th overall standard / 16th PPR after consecutive joint practices revealed severe offensive line and blitz pickup deficiencies with Malik Willis at QB.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Late-Round Perspectives: Chris Harris Returns</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft players over rigid positional dogma: capitalize on elite RB scarcity early, exploit WR flatness in the middle rounds, and avoid overvaluing combine speed or situational hype over proven on-field talent.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>RB Draft Strategy:</strong> Securing an elite RB provides the highest positional value over replacement in fantasy football, making anchor/early RB builds potent despite prevailing zero-RB trends.</p></li><li><p>Lowest league-wide pass rate since at least 2011 observed last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>WR Tier Flatness:</strong> Beyond the top handful of elite wideouts, WR production is extremely flat from WR12 to WR50 (often separated by only ~2 fantasy points per game), making mid-round WRs high-percentage dart throws.</p></li><li><p>Separation between WR8 and WR18 can be as little as 50 yards and 2 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>WR 40-Yard Dash Times:</strong> There is an inverse correlation between fast 40-yard dash times and fantasy hit rates relative to draft capital for Day 1 and Day 2 WRs, as the NFL often over-boosts raw speed over college production.</p></li><li><p>Day 1/2 top 100 WR speed correlation.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rome Odunze vs. Luther Burden:</strong> Harris favors Odunze over Burden due to Burden's lingering groin injury risk and Odunze's separation/suddenness for his size, while Zachariason prefers Burden for his yards-after-catch fit in Ben Johnson's offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson vs. TreVeyon Henderson:</strong> Stevenson is the preferred Patriots back over Henderson (who is overvalued in round 4), as Henderson continues to struggle in pass protection and New England is projected for more negative game scripts.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson played more than double the snaps of Henderson in trailing situations last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Parker Washington vs. Brian Thomas Jr.:</strong> Washington is preferred over Thomas due to his reliable intermediate/slot role in Liam Coen's scheme; Thomas is primarily a volatile spike-week option.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Warren vs. Rico Dowdle:</strong> Warren is strongly favored over Dowdle in the Steelers backfield due to superior talent, reliable pass protection, and elite efficiency as a receiver and rusher.</p></li><li><p>Warren is 4th in yards per route run among RBs since entering the league.</p></li><li><p>Warren is top 10 in yards per carry among RBs with 400+ career rush attempts.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Matthew Stafford:</strong> Stafford represents a bold hot-take candidate to finish as a top-5 fantasy QB this season.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</h2><p><em>Our Sleepers and Top Targets for 2026</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft strategy favors a barbell approach at RB (securing two high-volume backs in early rounds and drafting cheap late flyers), loading up heavily on WRs across the middle rounds (rounds 3-7), and targeting high-upside QBs (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts) and elite TEs (Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren) around ADP value pockets.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Target Chase Brown as a top mid-to-late second-round RB pick due to an uncontested backfield role in a high-scoring Bengals offense.</p></li><li><p>Finished 2025 as the RB2 over the final 8 games with Joe Burrow.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Walker III:</strong> Target Kenneth Walker early in drafts; his move to Kansas City places him in an Andy Reid offense that sees high rates of light defensive boxes and creates open space.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 17.5 fantasy PPG when playing over 60% of snaps (26 career games).</p></li><li><p>Logged 417 yards and 4 TDs across 3 playoff games last year.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Draft Derrick Henry in the second round despite age concerns; positive game scripts on a winning Ravens team guarantee heavy carry volume and goal-line work.</p></li><li><p>Posted approximately 1,600-1,700 total scrimmage yards and 16 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Stash Jonah Coleman with a final-round bench pick as a high-upside backup who could take over early-down and goal-line work if J.K. Dobbins misses time.</p></li><li><p>Draftable in the final rounds (outside top 200 / pre-kicker range).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chris Rodriguez Jr.:</strong> Target Chris Rodriguez in the double-digit rounds (round 12+) as an undervalued early-down grinder in Liam Coen's Jaguars offense over higher-drafted backfield competition.</p></li><li><p>ADP sits outside pick 120-140 while Bhayshul Tuten goes around pick 60.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Target Emeka Egbuka in the middle rounds (round 6) assuming pre-Week 1 toe clarity, as he steps into a high-volume Cooper Kupp-style role in Liam Coen/Zach Robinson's Buccaneers offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Draft Mike Evans in the 6th round as San Francisco's premier end-zone and jump-ball target tied to Brock Purdy.</p></li><li><p>4th in end-zone targets across the NFL over the past 3 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Luther Burden III:</strong> Select rookie receiver Luther Burden in the 4th/5th round as an explosive focal point of Ben Johnson's Bears passing attack.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Quentin Johnston:</strong> Target Quentin Johnston beyond pick 100 as an ascending red-zone weapon in Mike McDaniel's Chargers offense.</p></li><li><p>Finished as WR19 in games healthy and ranked 11th in red-zone targets in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> Target Trevor Lawrence around QB9 ADP, betting on Year 2 continuity with Liam Coen, an improved receiving corps, and substantial designed rushing volume.</p></li><li><p>QB2 in fantasy scoring from Week 10 onward in 2025 following the Jakobi Meyers acquisition.</p></li><li><p>Rushed for 9 TDs and was 4th among QBs in designed rush attempts.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> Capitalize on Jalen Hurts sliding to around QB6 in drafts (round 7 ADP pocket) for unmatched rushing TD equity and weekly floor.</p></li><li><p>Finished as QB7 in a down year; going in the round 7-8 range near pick 80.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Draft Brock Bowers aggressively in the late 2nd or early 3rd round as an elite positional advantage TE capable of wide receiver-level output.</p></li><li><p>Ranked 16th-17th overall on host draft boards.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>Rookie heat check: Are we buying or selling preseason hype?</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> While the 2026 rookie class has structural red flags and tough landing spots, Jeremiyah Love presents an elite high-upside draft target falling too far, and undervalued receivers like KC Concepcion and De'Zhaun Stribling offer substantial profit potential over current market ADP.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Draft Jeremiyah Love aggressively if he falls to round 3 or 4; consensus ranking around 40th overall overreacts to preseason injury risk when he showed elite ability and commanded an estimated 75-80% snap share over Tyler Allgeier.</p></li><li><p>26th overall ranking (Hayden).</p></li><li><p>27th ADP / 30s range (Matt).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jadarian Price:</strong> Jadarian Price is properly valued at his RB26 ADP; reports of Zach Charbonnet returning early from a February 20th ACL tear are historically unlikely, leaving Price in line for primary volume.</p></li><li><p>68th-70th overall ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Treat Jonah Coleman as an 11th-round late dart throw or waiver watch rather than an upside league-winner, as he remains capped by an explosive RJ Harvey in a Sean Payton committee even if J.K. Dobbins misses time.</p></li><li><p>Projected peak outcome: RB27 flex.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mike Washington Jr.:</strong> Draft Mike Washington Jr. with late-round dart throws as an elite-athlete handcuff who is projected for ~75-84 touches and would be a priority top-budget waiver claim if Ashton Jeanty missed time.</p></li><li><p>RB11 ranking overall for Jeanty (Hayden).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> Fade Jordyn Tyson at his 92nd overall ADP due to recurring hamstring and soft-tissue issues; team schedule and bye week suggest a realistic return around Week 9.</p></li><li><p>128th overall ranking (Hayden).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>KC Concepcion:</strong> Target KC Concepcion aggressively around Round 9 (ranked ~92nd overall), ignoring low Yahoo ADP due to elite separation, broken tackle ability, and manufactured touches in Todd Monken's offense.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Draft De'Zhaun Stribling in the 90s/Round 9 (ahead of his 125-127 Yahoo ADP); his versatility across outside and slot alignments makes him a prime candidate to emerge as the 49ers WR2.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Carnell Tate:</strong> Downgrade Carnell Tate in redraft tiers toward WR35+ due to concerns about the Titans' offensive line, Cam Ward's chaotic pocket play, and Wan'Dale Robinson dominating quick underneath targets.</p></li><li><p>Rounds 6-7 fade against top QBs (Hayden).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Rookie TEs:</strong> Do not draft rookie TEs like Kenyon Sadiq (ADP 131 / TE27) in standard 1-TE redraft formats; Eli Raridon and Matthew Hibner are better late-season waiver watchlist names.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.20.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[12 episodes, 10 hours + 41 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82026</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82026</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2026 01:01:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the full notes on all 12 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82026-full-notes">LINK</a></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Today's Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#128657; <strong>Houston target vacuum</strong>: Jayden Higgins suffered a season-ending torn ACL, opening up targets for Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and Jaylin Noel (<em>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#127973; <strong>Saints offense depleted</strong>: Alvin Kamara will miss roughly one month with a sprained MCL while rookie Jordyn Tyson is sidelined for two months with a hamstring strain (<em>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Weekly</em>, <em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#128200; <strong>Early RB surge</strong>: Managers are drafting 13 RBs in the top two rounds compared to eight in 2023, reflecting a sharp league-wide priority on positional scarcity (<em>Fantasy Life Show</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#129413; DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>DeVonta Smith offers elite WR1 production at a discounted WR14 draft cost.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Matthew Berry ranks Smith 24th overall, citing his 29% target share and 17.3 points per game without A.J. Brown on the field (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li><li><p>Berry notes his draft price currently sits around 35th overall, leaving a wide profit margin before drafts conclude (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#129312; Nico Collins (WR, HOU)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Nico Collins enters the season with a clear path to high-end target dominance.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Collins could command up to 160 targets as Houston leans into heavy personnel packages following Jayden Higgins' injury (<em>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</em>, <em>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</em>).</p></li><li><p>Brandon Angelo cautions that reaching that ceiling requires Collins to stay healthy for at least 15 games (<em>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127993; Rashee Rice (WR, KC)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Rashee Rice delivers top-tier weekly scoring at a suppressed late-second-round ADP.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Rice averaged over 18.0 PPR points per game across his last 17 healthy contests while commanding a 28% target share (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li><li><p>Potential league discipline concerns continue to keep his draft price depressed at pick 27 overall on NFFC (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127988;&#8205;&#9760;&#65039; Chris Godwin (WR, TB)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Chris Godwin provides proven weekly stability at a deep late-round discount.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Godwin has delivered multiple career seasons above 17 fantasy points per game and projects for heavy slot volume (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Life Show</em>).</p></li><li><p>Andy Holloway notes drafters can still acquire him in Round 13 on ESPN while rookie Emeka Egbuka manages turf toe (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Life Show</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#9992;&#65039; Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Breece Hall's training camp groin injury opens a temporary buying window.</strong></p><ul><li><p>John Laghezza confirms Hall's recovery timeline spans weeks rather than months, justifying late third-round draft interest (<em>Fantasy Football Weekly</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li><li><p>Christopher Harris downgraded Hall to RB16 because soft-tissue injuries carry elevated reinjury risk heading into Week 1 (<em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#9878;&#65039; The Christian McCaffrey Age-30 Valuation</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Analysts disagree on whether elite passing involvement offsets age-30 touch fatigue and rushing inefficiency.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> McCaffrey remains a top-four overall pick because Kyle Shanahan's offense guarantees elite receiving volume and red-zone opportunities (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Entering his age-30 season after 400 touches and a drop to 3.8 yards per carry, McCaffrey belongs in the RB6 to RB10 range (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#9889; Jaxson Dart's Rushing Ceiling vs. Durability</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Experts split on whether Dart's Konami-code rushing profile compensates for substantial injury and scheme risk.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Jason Moore ranks Dart at QB5 due to his 700-yard rushing pace, matching the ceiling of elite dual-threat QBs (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Andy Holloway warns Dart is a bust candidate after visiting the medical tent in five of 10 games inside Matt Nagy's low-motion offense (<em>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.20.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[12 episodes, 10 hours + 41 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82026-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-82026-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:36:24 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>12 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>10 hours and 41 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Greg Cosell: Talking NFL trends &amp; rookie injuries</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>Field&#8217;s Top 25 players in Fantasy Football | Fantasy Focus &#127944;</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>Should We AVOID DRAFTING This First Round RB in 2026 Fantasy Football?</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>Matthew Berry's 2026 Ride or Die Reveal</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>FFT Express - Best Handcuffs &amp; Late-Round Stashes! Your FINAL 2 Picks Should Be These Players! (08/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>How to Draft From Picks 10 to 12 + Training Camp Buzz! (08/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Weekly</strong>: <em>Keeping His Throne</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Bust &amp; Value Picks for 2026! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Life Show</strong>: <em>Zero RB vs. Hero RB vs. Robust RB Mock Draft: Which Strategy is Best in 2026?</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Flag Players &amp; Offenses We Might Be Wrong About</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</strong>: <em>2026 NFL Preseason and Fantasy Review: Going Deep with Brandon Angelo and Matt Waldman</em> (August 20)</p></li><li><p><strong>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</strong>: <em>Bust alert! 6 offenses with major red flags that could ruin your fantasy season</em> (August 20)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Greg Cosell: Talking NFL trends &amp; rookie injuries</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Defenses' widespread adoption of two-high shells to stop explosive passing plays has revitalized the run game against light boxes, prompting offenses to deploy heavier packages like 12 and 13 personnel while defenses prioritize gap-eating defensive tackles and big nickel alignments.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Alvin Kamara:</strong> Kamara is expected to miss about a month with a sprained MCL, making him doubtful to play in the Saints' regular season opener.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> Tyson will miss roughly two months due to a hamstring injury, sidelining the top-10 rookie who was slated to start alongside Chris Olave.</p></li><li><p>Expected to miss 2 months.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jayden Higgins:</strong> Texans WR Jayden Higgins is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain, leaving his availability for Week 1 in question.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Tyler Biadasz:</strong> Chargers center Tyler Biadasz is sidelined indefinitely after sustaining a knee injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Allen signed with the Indianapolis and will serve as a veteran chain-mover on third downs and zone-beating weapon despite declining top-end athletic juice.</p></li><li><p>Projected ~9 yards per catch on ~50 receptions.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Makai Lemon:</strong> First-round WR Makai Lemon has missed substantial practice time dating back to the spring, raising concerns about lost development time as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Offensive Scheme Trends:</strong> Teams are expanding 13 personnel usage to present 9 run gaps and force defenses out of nickel into base defenses, enabling explosive passing plays from non-condensed formations.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>Field&#8217;s Top 25 players in Fantasy Football | Fantasy Focus &#127944;</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> With Jayden Higgins suffering a season-ending injury, Tank Dell and Jaylin Noel are late-round dart throws in redraft, while Dalton Schultz's target floor is reinforced. Bijan Robinson is the consensus top overall RB due to consistent high-floor volume and durability, though Jahmyr Gibbs has.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Houston WRs:</strong> With Jayden Higgins suffering a season-ending injury, Tank Dell and Jaylin Noel are late-round dart throws in redraft, while Dalton Schultz's target floor is reinforced.</p></li><li><p>Jayden Higgins placed on season-ending IR for 2026.</p></li><li><p>Jaylin Noel ran a 4.34 40-yard dash with a 41.5-inch vertical.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bijan Robinson vs. Jahmyr Gibbs:</strong> Bijan Robinson is the consensus top overall RB due to consistent high-floor volume and durability, though Jahmyr Gibbs has an expanding role that makes him an equivalent 1.01 contender.</p></li><li><p>Bijan Robinson has 5 more games with 20+ points and 2 fewer games with &lt;=10 points than Gibbs over the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>Gibbs has outscored the RB3 over the past three seasons by 109.3 fantasy points.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> McCaffrey remains an elite top-3 option based on passing volume upside in Shanahan's offense despite concerns regarding his age (30) and 2025 rushing efficiency drop (3.8 YPC).</p></li><li><p>43% of fantasy points came from rushing last season.</p></li><li><p>400+ touches last season entering age-30 season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ja'Marr Chase vs. Puka Nacua:</strong> Ja'Marr Chase holds WR1 overall status above Puka Nacua due to consistent target volume and the risk of a potential suspension hovering over Nacua.</p></li><li><p>Chase finished 1st in WR routes and targets in back-to-back seasons with 125+ receptions.</p></li><li><p>Chase has 11 games with 25+ points over the last two seasons.</p></li><li><p>Nacua has 15 games with 115+ receiving yards in his first three seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jaxon Smith-Njigba:</strong> JSN offers one of the highest weekly floors in fantasy after commanding a 36% target share and posting at least 13 fantasy points in 16 of 17 games last season.</p></li><li><p>Led NFL in receiving yards, 4th in receptions, 5th in targets.</p></li><li><p>76% of receiving yards came from perimeter alignment.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Trey McBride &amp; Brock Bowers:</strong> Drafting elite TEs McBride or Bowers in the middle-to-late second round is necessary to secure a massive positional advantage over the rest of the TE tier.</p></li><li><p>McBride recorded 61 more receptions than any other TE over past two seasons and 102 more than the TE5 (George Kittle).</p></li><li><p>Over 100-point fantasy gap between McBride and lower TE tiers last season.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>Should We AVOID DRAFTING This First Round RB in 2026 Fantasy Football?</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Ashton Jeanty's underwhelming rookie efficiency relative to his heavy volume raises red flags about drafting him in the first round, while Brock Bowers displays elite Hall of Fame-caliber traits and Denver rookie Jonah Coleman emerges as a high-upside sleeper.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Fantasy managers should exercise caution drafting Jeanty in the mid-to-late first round after an inefficient rookie season where he averaged just 14.4 fantasy points per game despite 266 carries and 55 receptions.</p></li><li><p>14.4 fantasy points per game in 2025 (only sub-15 PPG season among 79 historical seasons with that volume).</p></li><li><p>2,601 rushing yards in 2024 at college level.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Brock Bowers stood out dramatically in Raiders practices as a potentially generational, first-ballot Hall of Fame-level TE talent.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Jonah Coleman has worked with the first-team offense for Denver in preseason and was pulled early after an impressive run, cementing his status as an ascending sleeper.</p></li><li><p>Pulled after the first quarter in Preseason Week 1.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Offensive Line vs. RB Valuation:</strong> Offensive line quality and scheme have far greater predictive impact on rushing success than individual RB draft capital, making RBs behind weak lines risky early-round investments.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>Matthew Berry's 2026 Ride or Die Reveal</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> DeVonta Smith represents massive fantasy draft value at his mid-to-late third/fourth-round ADP (WR14) given his elite historical target share (29%) and efficiency (17.3 PPG) without A.J. Brown on the field.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DeVonta Smith:</strong> Berry named DeVonta Smith his 2026 Ride or Die, ranking him 24th overall (WR10) well ahead of his WR14 ADP (35th overall). With A.J. Brown gone, Smith is projected for elite WR1 volume in an offense coordinated by Sean Mannion.</p></li><li><p>Targeted on 29% of routes without A.J. Brown on field since 2023.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 17.3 fantasy PPG in games with 25%+ target share without Brown (WR5 PPG equivalent).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 1,000+ receiving yards in 4 consecutive seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Berry's runner-up Ride or Die and TE3 overall. Loveland is heavily targeted in Ben Johnson's Bears offense, benefiting from DJ Moore's vacated 85 targets.</p></li><li><p>Ranked TE3 by Berry.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 99 receiving yards per game in games with 7+ targets last season.</p></li><li><p>Scored 20+ fantasy points in 4 of 5 games with 20%+ target share.</p></li><li><p>11.5 targets/game, 33.3% TPRR, 2.68 YPRR, 78% WOPR in late-season sample.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ken Walker III:</strong> Berry ranks Walker as RB7 (vs RB11 ADP) with overall RB1 upside due to Andy Reid expanding his passing-down role and high red-zone TD equity.</p></li><li><p>Averages 18+ fantasy PPG and 110 yards from scrimmage in 25 career games with 18+ touches.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Brown represents strong draft value around RB13 on ESPN, having established himself as an elite high-volume workhorse with minimal touch competition.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 19.4 fantasy PPG in 8 Joe Burrow starts last year.</p></li><li><p>RB6 in fantasy PPG (95 YFS/game) over 25-game sample since Week 9 of 2024.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> McConkey is positioned for a major volume spike under play-caller Mike McDaniel with Keenan Allen vacating 122 targets (22% target share).</p></li><li><p>Top 10 in yards per route run over last two seasons among WRs with 200+ targets.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyler Murray:</strong> Murray is ranked QB14 by Berry (ahead of QB17 consensus), but Berry cautions against drafting him as a high-upside league winner due to deep QB depth and missed games.</p></li><li><p>Missed at least 6 games in 3 of the past 4 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Despite elite talent and the Clint Kubiak scheme, Jeanty is already priced near his ceiling at RB6 (late 1st/early 2nd round), leaving limited draft profit margin.</p></li><li><p>Ranked RB6 by Berry.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Berry ranks Egbuka at WR21, expressing hesitation over a lingering turf toe issue and target competition despite 120 projected targets.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 20.1 fantasy PPG and 23% target share through first 5 weeks last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Berry views Wilson as a WR2 with upside (ranked WR20) rather than a league-winner, citing team offense and historical career ceiling.</p></li><li><p>Berry rank WR20 vs round 3-4 ADP.</p></li><li><p>Never finished higher than WR19 on a PPG basis in career.</p></li><li><p>WR6 in half-PPR through Week 5 last year prior to injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Berry ranks Nix at QB15 (vs QB14 ADP), questioning weekly consistency and rushing ceiling under new play-caller Davis Webb.</p></li><li><p>Finished as a top-10 QB in only 4 of 17 weeks last season despite finishing QB7 overall.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>FFT Express - Best Handcuffs &amp; Late-Round Stashes! Your FINAL 2 Picks Should Be These Players! (08/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Target high-upside backup RBs with clear paths to volume like Mike Washington and Zach Charbonnet, while stashing high-potential rookie WRs with aging or injury-prone starters ahead of them.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Washington:</strong> Washington is viewed as the top pure backup RB stash who requires an injury to gain fantasy value, boosted by his combine athleticism and lack of depth chart competition.</p></li><li><p>Ran a 4.3 40-yard dash at around 220 pounds.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Zach Charbonnet:</strong> Charbonnet represents the premier injured RB stash because managers only have to wait for him to come off PUP rather than waiting for a starter ahead of him to suffer an injury.</p></li><li><p>Expected to start the year on PUP, though there was talk of Week 1 readiness.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Dylan Sampson:</strong> Sampson popped in the preseason and could be the primary backup behind Quinshon Judkins, but concerns exist about his size and whether the Browns trust him with a heavy workload.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonah Coleman:</strong> Coleman sits in a lower stash tier because even if J.K. Dobbins gets hurt, RJ Harvey is projected to retain and possibly expand his existing role rather than Coleman becoming a workhorse.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ray Davis:</strong> Davis would inherit standard-down work if James Cook misses time, but Ty Johnson's established passing-down role limits Davis's standalone ceiling and potential workhorse upside.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chris Bell:</strong> Bell is an intriguing late/undrafted WR stash with a path to becoming Miami's WR1 later in the season after avoiding PUP and being activated from the NFI list.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Antonio Williams:</strong> Williams serves as a rare handcuff WR candidate sitting behind multiple 30-plus-year-old starters.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Terrance Ferguson:</strong> Ferguson could serve as a unique TE handcuff to WRs due to Puka Nacua's suspension/injury concerns and Davante Adams's age and health history.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Christian McCaffrey Backup:</strong> Drafting a direct McCaffrey handcuff is currently not recommended due to backfield volatility and injuries, though Kaelon Black appears to be the tentative leading candidate.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>How to Draft From Picks 10 to 12 + Training Camp Buzz! (08/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Drafting at the 10-12 turn offers great structural flexibility, allowing managers to secure elite WR talent (Lamb, Jefferson) or anchor with top RBs before targeting high-upside value in rounds 3-5.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rashee Rice:</strong> Rice represents strong ADP value at the back of Round 2 or early Round 3; he has consistently commanded a 28%+ target share when healthy and earned significant high-value red zone looks.</p></li><li><p>27th overall ADP (WR13) on NFFC.</p></li><li><p>Over 18.0 PPR PPG in his last 17 healthy games (WR5 production).</p></li><li><p>18 red zone, 14 green zone, and 5 end zone targets in 8 games in 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Javonte Williams:</strong> Williams presents clear value at the Round 3/4 turn as an uncontested lead back in Dallas's offense with heavy goal-line utilization, despite poor receiving efficiency late last season.</p></li><li><p>Drafted as RB15 on NFFC, RB18 on CBS, RB16 on FantasyPros.</p></li><li><p>Finished as RB12 in PPR last season.</p></li><li><p>10 of 11 rushing TDs in 2025 came from inside the 5-yard line.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Davante Adams:</strong> Concerns over Adams's age are overblown; despite poor efficiency metrics with Stafford last season, his projected volume and heavy target share offer a strong floor in Round 5.</p></li><li><p>Drafted as WR23 after finishing as WR9 per game last season.</p></li><li><p>On pace for 138 targets last year.</p></li><li><p>81.2% catchable target rate ranked 70th of 78 qualifying WRs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dalton Schultz:</strong> Following Jayden Higgins's season-ending ACL tear, Schultz moves up into the TE15 range and becomes an appealing late-round TE target with 100+ target upside.</p></li><li><p>Moved up from TE18/19 to TE15 in rankings.</p></li><li><p>Had 106 targets and 3 TDs last season.</p></li><li><p>Averaged ~85 targets per season over previous Houston campaigns.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Warren is expected to miss one week with a minor groin injury; combined with Keenan Allen's signing, his ranking drops from Round 4 into Round 5 territory.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy (Picks 10-12):</strong> Picking at the turn allows drafters to start WR-WR (Lamb/Jefferson) or RB-RB, with high-end RB depth (Williams, Love, Jacobs, Achane) readily available at the 3/4 turn.</p></li><li><p>Targeting elite QB tier (Burrow, Daniels, Maye) around Round 5/6 turn if Montgomery/Irving are gone.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Wan'Dale Robinson:</strong> Robinson offers a high-floor PPR WR3/flex option due to projected double-digit target volume from the slot, despite historically low yards per target.</p></li><li><p>Had 140 targets in each of the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>699 yards on 140 targets two years ago (WR47 in PPR PPG).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Matthew Golden:</strong> Golden represents a high-upside late-round target as Green Bay's potential starting perimeter receiver alongside Christian Watson and Jayden Reed.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Weekly</h2><p><em>Keeping His Throne</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Recent injury news and depth-chart adjustments present key value windows across drafts, making ADP discipline and contingency planning essential when targeting uncertain backfields and ambiguous receiving corps.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Breece Hall:</strong> Hall's groin injury timeline is confirmed as weeks rather than months, justifying a draft target slide toward the late third or early fourth round while elevating Braelon Allen as a premier handcuff.</p></li><li><p>Recommended ADP fall: end of 3rd to early 4th round.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Derrick Henry vs. Breece Hall:</strong> Henry moves ahead of Hall in the late third round due to Hall's soft-tissue injury risk and Henry's consolidated red-zone TD equity in Baltimore.</p></li><li><p>Late 3rd round ADP target range.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> Tyson is facing at least a two-month absence due to a hamstring injury; he is best viewed as an IR-stash in redraft leagues with an eye on a post-Week 8 bye return, while Chris Olave's target ceiling solidifies.</p></li><li><p>Expected absence: at least 2 months.</p></li><li><p>WR38 ADP (overall 25 in some formats).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Makai Lemon:</strong> Lemon returned to full-pads practice, making his WR45 ADP (111 overall) a strong buying opportunity before his price normalizes into the late 80s or 90s.</p></li><li><p>Draft capital: 20th overall pick.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>D'Andre Swift:</strong> With Kyle Monangai's draft position slipping, Swift offers consolidated lead-back touch volume in Chicago and should be prioritized over David Montgomery.</p></li><li><p>Swift prior stats: 14 carries per game, 1,000+ rushing yards, 4.9 YPC.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tank Dell:</strong> Dell faces significant health concerns and potential IR placement according to team beat reports, making him a risky target despite Jayden Higgins's injury.</p></li><li><p>Has not practiced and beat reporter projects possible IR.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Josh Downs vs. Keenan Allen:</strong> Keenan Allen operated out of three-wide-receiver sets on 98% of snaps last season and is unlikely to cannibalize two-wide sets, creating a buying dip on Josh Downs while Allen remains a low-ceiling redraft pick.</p></li><li><p>Allen on field for 597 plays; 584 (98%) were 3-WR sets.</p></li><li><p>Allen needs ~50 receptions to reach #3 all-time in NFL history.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylen Waddle vs. Courtland Sutton:</strong> Waddle's price tag (WR19, 43rd overall) carries risk relative to Sutton (WR38, 99th overall), but Denver's heavy draft investment and Waddle's underlying efficiency support mid-fourth round equity.</p></li><li><p>Broncos gave up picks 30, 94, and 130.</p></li><li><p>Waddle stats: 0.5 FP/route, 25% TPRR, 2.25 YPRR, &lt;9 routes/1st down, 22% explosive play rate (20+ yds), 18% downfield target rate.</p></li><li><p>Denver ranked top 5 in plays run and 6th in dropbacks per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rachaad White vs. Jordan Mason:</strong> As Jacory Croskey-Merritt improves in pass protection, White risks being relegated to a third-down specialist; drafters should pivot to Jordan Mason at a similar ADP.</p></li><li><p>Target range: 10th to 11th round.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> Moore's freestyle receiving profile creates ceiling synergy with Josh Allen's off-script playmaking, but Joe Brady's run-heavy offensive scheme and Moore's WR25 ADP warrant caution against comparable wideouts.</p></li><li><p>Drafted as WR25 (round 5-6 range).</p></li><li><p>Buffalo ranked 7th lowest in pass play percentage over the past 3 years under Joe Brady.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Despite age and lack of pass-catching involvement, Henry remains an elite rusher with monster TD equity who is an automatic selection if available near the end of the third round.</p></li><li><p>3.6 yards after contact per attempt.</p></li><li><p>5.2 yards per carry.</p></li><li><p>10% explosive rush rate.</p></li><li><p>52% eight-man box rate.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Bust &amp; Value Picks for 2026! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Late-round ambiguity creates massive upside in the Dolphins' undrafted receiving corps, while extreme ADP discounts on proven high-volume producers like Chris Godwin, Bo Nix, and Zay Flowers present prime value targets relative to high-risk bust candidates.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Caleb Douglas:</strong> Douglas is Jason's top target in the Dolphins' WR room due to strong athletic testing (6'4", 206 lbs, 4.39 40-time, 91st percentile speed score) and projected 100% snap share from Week 1 alongside Malik Willis.</p></li><li><p>Draft capital: Round 3, Pick 75.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malik Washington:</strong> Mike prefers Washington among Dolphins receivers due to third-year progression and consistent positive camp reports, noting his production was previously suppressed behind superstars.</p></li><li><p>220 receiving yards as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>317 receiving yards in year two.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Andy warns that Dart is a major bust risk due to high injury exposure (visited medical tent in 5 of 10 games last season), Matt Nagy's low-motion offensive scheme, and a brutal second-half schedule where New York is favored in only 2 of 11 games.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 1.4 designed runs and 16.6 fantasy PPG post-concussion.</p></li><li><p>Matt Nagy scheme: 2nd lowest motion rate, 3rd lowest play-action rate since 2021.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Jason defends Dart at his 9th-round ADP, arguing his 700-yard rushing pace places him in rare company with only Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels for elite rushing ceiling.</p></li><li><p>17-game pace of ~700 rushing yards as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>Measurables: 6'2", 223 lbs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Etienne Jr.:</strong> Jason labels Etienne a major bust candidate due to horrific red zone rushing conversion in 2023, reliance on unsustainable receiving TDs, an offensive line downgrade in New Orleans, and Kellen Moore's historically low RB target share offenses.</p></li><li><p>26 carries inside the 10-yard line resulted in only 4 TDs (15% rate).</p></li><li><p>6 receiving TDs on just 36 receptions (43% of fantasy points from TDs).</p></li><li><p>Kellen Moore RB target share ranks last 4 years: 26th, 26th, 20th, 27th.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chuba Hubbard:</strong> Mike designates Hubbard as a complete fade in Round 7 (RB28) at the tail of the dead zone due to abysmal efficiency, zero missed tackles forced in weeks 1-4, and Carolina facing the 3rd hardest schedule as early underdogs.</p></li><li><p>29% work rate in weeks 1-4 with 0 missed tackles forced.</p></li><li><p>0 runs of 15+ yards.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Godwin:</strong> Godwin represents an elite late-round value and reliable WR2 stabilizer in Round 13 on ESPN with Mike Evans gone and Emeka Egbuka battling a toe injury.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP: 13.04 (Round 13).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bo Nix:</strong> Nix is drastically mispriced at QB15 despite finishing QB7 and QB6 in his first two seasons, scoring the 4th most fantasy points by a QB through two years, and adding Jaylen Waddle to the offense.</p></li><li><p>Finished as QB7 (Year 1) and QB6 (Year 2).</p></li><li><p>Led NFL in passing attempts last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Flowers is a premier draft value with positive TD regression expected after securing a 28% target share in Baltimore and being one of only two WRs with 27%+ target share drafted outside the top 12.</p></li><li><p>$104M guaranteed contract.</p></li><li><p>Target shares: 24%, 25%, 28%.</p></li><li><p>Historical baseline: 1 TD every 18.3 targets for 1st round WRs with 300+ targets in first 3 years (Flowers expected at 19 TDs vs 14 actual).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jameson Williams:</strong> If Sam LaPorta misses time with his hip injury, Williams becomes a high-upside target in a potent Lions offense after finishing last season as a top-10 fantasy WR down the stretch.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Life Show</h2><p><em>Zero RB vs. Hero RB vs. Robust RB Mock Draft: Which Strategy is Best in 2026?</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft strategy should be dictated by draft slot and room dynamics rather than forced early; late-round RB selections in redraft should prioritize clear contingent upside and role clarity over ambiguous floor plays.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>RB Draft Landscape:</strong> 13 RBs are being drafted in the top two rounds compared to just 8 in 2023, reflecting a sharp market shift toward early RB scarcity and lower league-wide passing volume.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>James Cook:</strong> James Cook represents a safe late-round 1 floor with massive upside if offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael expands his route participation to around 60% in the passing game.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Zero RB Roster Construction:</strong> When executing Zero RB, secure an elite TE early (such as Brock Bowers) for positional leverage, draft early-season volume starters in rounds 5-6 (D'Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson), and chase high-ceiling contingent upside late.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Malik Nabers &amp; Luther Burden:</strong> Preseason injuries offer value discounts on elite target earners in consolidated passing offenses where their full-season talent ceiling is priced well below ADP.</p></li><li><p>Malik Nabers projected as mid-round 1 talent drafted in round 3.</p></li><li><p>Luther Burden drafted in round 5 vs. late round 3/early round 4 valuation.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Chris Godwin:</strong> Godwin represents superior proven ceiling value over peers like DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin, having delivered multiple 17+ FPPG seasons in his career while Emeka Egbuka deals with turf toe.</p></li><li><p>DJ Moore career peak around 16 FPPG.</p></li><li><p>Terry McLaurin under 16 FPPG even with 13 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Jonathon Brooks is a critical target in rounds 6 to 8 for Zero RB builds looking for second-half bellcow upside, especially with Rico Dowdle nursing a hamstring injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jordan Mason:</strong> Mason projects to capture high-value goal-line carries in a Kevin O'Connell Vikings offense that is expected to generate far more red zone TDs with Kyler Murray and a healthy offensive line than the sub-10 inside-the-five attempts logged last season.</p></li><li><p>&lt;10 goal-line attempts inside the 5-yard line for Vikings in prior season.</p></li><li><p>16 inside-the-5 attempts for Javonte Williams individually.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>MarShawn Lloyd &amp; Tank Bigsby:</strong> In redraft/managed formats, prioritize pure contingent handcuff bets (Lloyd behind Josh Jacobs, Bigsby behind Saquon Barkley) over standalone low-upside pass-catchers like Tyjae Spears.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emmett Johnson &amp; Ray Davis:</strong> Emmett Johnson and Ray Davis are premier late-round contingent rookie RB targets who could yield league-winning value if starting backs ahead of them miss time.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Flag Players &amp; Offenses We Might Be Wrong About</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Capitalize on market mispricings across all draft phases by drafting undervalued veterans and high-efficiency pieces (like Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, and Stefon Diggs) while exercising caution on injury-hit rookies and crowded offenses.</p><ul><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Jayden Higgins:</strong> Suffered a season-ending torn ACL during joint practice and must be removed from draft boards.</p></li><li><p>Out for season (ACL tear).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaylin Noel:</strong> Worth drafting as a late-round dart throw in double-digit rounds following the season-ending injury to Jayden Higgins due to his open-field speed from the slot.</p></li><li><p>Target in double-digit rounds.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Alvin Kamara:</strong> Sprained his MCL in joint practice, will miss at least a month, and is ruled out for Week 1.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Breece Hall:</strong> Downgraded from RB13 (late 2nd round) to RB16 (mid-to-late 3rd round) due to a lingering groin injury that carries heightened reinjury risk.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Avoid drafting at current early 3rd-round ADP (~25-26 overall) after sustaining a mid-August high ankle sprain; Harris ranks him 52nd standard and 54th PPR.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Matthew Stafford:</strong> Targets Stafford in the 9th round or later as a high-floor value anchor; ranks him at QB5 despite an ADP of QB15.</p></li><li><p>Harris rank: QB5.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Keaton Mitchell:</strong> Target in double-digit rounds (rounds 12-13) as an explosive complementary back with standalone big-play utility.</p></li><li><p>ADP: Yahoo 193, CBS 165, Footballguys ~120s.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brenton Strange:</strong> Target as a late double-digit round or undrafted TE flyer due to athletic ball skills and leaping ability reminiscent of Trey McBride.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kyren Williams:</strong> Strong value target in the 3rd round (ADP 27-31 overall); concerns about Blake Corum forcing an equal timeshare are overblown.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Stefon Diggs:</strong> Stash candidate in the 10th round who retains strong route running and hands for WR3/flex utility in Washington.</p></li><li><p>Finished WR24 last season (1,000 yards, 4 TDs).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> Remains heavily undervalued at his 16th overall ADP even if Miami's offense struggles, after averaging 18.1 half-PPR PPG last season.</p></li><li><p>18.1 half-PPR points per game in 2024 (RB5 overall).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Drake London:</strong> Drafting London in the top-20 / round 2 carries serious risk given Atlanta's uncertain QB play and offensive scheme transition.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Justin Jefferson:</strong> Fade Jefferson out of the top-12 overall into the mid-second round due to lingering QB play and offense volatility.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Aggressive fantasy projections on Chicago's pass-catchers require Williams to significantly clean up his mechanics and down-to-down consistency.</p></li><li><p>Luther Burden ADP: 58th overall.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Matt Waldman's RSP Cast</h2><p><em>2026 NFL Preseason and Fantasy Review: Going Deep with Brandon Angelo and Matt Waldman</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Matt Waldman and Brandon Angelo evaluate preseason standouts and injury concerns, highlighting rookie risers De'Zhaun Stribling and Cyrus Allen, cautioning on Jordyn Tyson's severe soft-tissue injury risk, projecting massive target and touch volumes for Nico Collins and David Montgomery, and expressing heavy skepticism regarding Drake London and Omarion Hampton in their current offensive environments.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Target Stribling in redraft rounds 9-10. With injuries to 49ers veterans, his run-blocking prowess in 12 personnel and rapid acclimation to Brock Purdy's timing position him for immediate playing time and potential downfield target share.</p></li><li><p>Targeted outside rounds 13-14 previously.</p></li><li><p>49ers had no WR over 650 yards besides Christian McCaffrey.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Cyrus Allen:</strong> Allen has shown rapid separation and route improvement under WR coach Chad O'Shea. He presents quick-win upside for Patrick Mahomes early as WR3/4 with potential to evolve into the WR2 target with Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice managing health/off-field issues.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Caleb Douglas:</strong> Listed as WR1 on Miami's depth chart, Douglas has path to volume on outside routes in play-action schemes. However, Malik Washington and Greg Dulcich are expected to dominate underneath targets, making Douglas a speculative top 60-80 redraft pick or third/fourth-round rookie draft pick, as well as an early-season sell-high candidate.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> Due to recurring multi-ligament knee reconstruction history, biomechanical asymmetry, and ongoing hamstring strains, Tyson carries an extreme re-injury risk. He should ideally be redshirted or held out, making him someone to completely avoid in redraft.</p></li><li><p>6 to 8 week standard recovery if grade 2 hamstring strain, but re-injury risk remains in the red.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Juwan Johnson:</strong> Move Johnson up draft boards as an underrated TE who is positioned to serve as the number two passing option behind Tyler Shough in the Saints offense with Jordyn Tyson sidelined.</p></li><li><p>Projected #2 passing target.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jaylin Noel:</strong> Following Jayden Higgins' season-ending ACL injury and Tank Dell's uncertain recovery, Noel has clear upside for 100-110 targets from CJ Stroud operating as a flanker/slot weapon in an improved Texans offense.</p></li><li><p>Projected 800 receiving yards.</p></li><li><p>Projected 5 to 7 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Nico Collins:</strong> Collins is positioned to be a massive target earner in Houston's offense, with potential to reach up to 160 targets if healthy.</p></li><li><p>Requires 15+ games played.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>David Montgomery:</strong> Montgomery is set for an immense workhorse role as Houston adopts a risk-averse, ball-control game script, projecting for up to 1,350 rushing yards.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Drake London:</strong> Downgrade London to high-end WR3 status in seasonal drafts due to an Atlanta offensive environment featuring Kevin Stefanski's 12 personnel tendencies, multiple slot receivers, and QB limitations under Tua Tagovailoa.</p></li><li><p>Downgraded to high-end WR3.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Place Hampton on 'do not draft' lists at current ADP. Mike McDaniel is committed to a multi-back committee incorporating Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal in an outside/wide zone running scheme that does not fit Hampton's gap-downhill running profile.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as a top 15 RB by consensus, but belongs in the 20-30 range or on DND lists.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Keaton Mitchell:</strong> Target Mitchell as a late-round sleeper who offers league-leading per-touch efficiency in Mike McDaniel's committee run scheme.</p></li><li><p>Top-tier league per-touch efficiency.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Yahoo Fantasy Forecast with Matt Harmon</h2><p><em>Bust alert! 6 offenses with major red flags that could ruin your fantasy season</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Discrepancies between team offensive efficiency projections and high player ADPs highlight severe risk profiles in Atlanta and Indianapolis, while Las Vegas, Arizona, and New Orleans offer concentrated volume that makes their top assets more resilient than baseline team projections suggest.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Houston WRs:</strong> With Jayden Higgins suffering a season-ending torn ACL, Nico Collins is positioned for target dominance in 12 and 13 personnel packages, while Xavier Hutchinson will see heavy blocking/insert snaps and Jaylin Noel serves as a high-upside late-round dart throw.</p></li><li><p>Nico Collins 23rd overall Yahoo ADP (ranked 17th by Harmon).</p></li><li><p>Texans ranked 31st in rushing success rate since drafting C.J. Stroud.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Arizona Pass Catchers &amp; Backfield:</strong> Despite being projected as the 26th-ranked offense across consensus models, the Cardinals' offensive line cohesion and Michael LaFleur's scheme warrant drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson ahead of ADP, while Tyler Allgeier remains an elite handcuff.</p></li><li><p>Cardinals projected 26th offense (DVOA 20th, Vegas 32nd).</p></li><li><p>Trey McBride ADP 27th overall.</p></li><li><p>Marvin Harrison Jr. ADP 78th/79th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Atlanta Skill Players:</strong> Drafting Bijan Robinson (2nd overall), Drake London (20th overall), and Kyle Pitts (72nd overall) carries significant bust risk due to QB volatility, offensive line regression, and an inability for the offense to support three high-volume pass catchers.</p></li><li><p>Falcons projected 23rd overall offense (18-spot gap vs ADP).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Las Vegas Skill Players:</strong> Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers should be drafted confidently at ADP despite the team's 30th-ranked aggregate offensive projection, because Clint Kubiak's run scheme and Bowers' 130-target funnel role will hyper-concentrate offensive production.</p></li><li><p>Ashton Jeanty ADP 15th overall.</p></li><li><p>Mike Washington Jr. ADP 127th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonathan Taylor:</strong> Daniel Jones's lingering Achilles recovery threatens to limit under-center snaps, which severely reduces Taylor's rushing efficiency and upside as a top-7 overall pick.</p></li><li><p>Taylor is 5th in rushing success rate under center since 2020.</p></li><li><p>Taylor drops to 20th out of 38 RBs in rushing success rate from shotgun.</p></li><li><p>Indianapolis projected 19th offense vs 9th in ADP value.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Tyler Warren is the safest asset in the Colts' passing offense and a secure target in the 40s due to versatile schematic usage that remains insulated from QB changes and WR injuries.</p></li><li><p>Tyler Warren ADP 46th overall.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> With rookie Jordyn Tyson sidelined with a hamstring injury, Chris Olave is insulated as an alpha target earner in Kellen Moore's offense and should be valued alongside Drake London in the top-20 to 22 range.</p></li><li><p>Chris Olave ADP 35th overall (Harmon ranked 22nd).</p></li><li><p>Saints projected 27th offense vs 18th in ADP value.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Garrett Wilson &amp; Jets Pass Catchers:</strong> Garrett Wilson is poised for a 27%+ target share as the primary RPO first-read receiver in Frank Reich's 11-personnel scheme, while Mason Taylor is an underpriced late tight-end flier over the injured Kenyon Sadiq.</p></li><li><p>Garrett Wilson ADP 51st overall.</p></li><li><p>Wilson posted a 34% target share over the first 6 weeks of last season.</p></li><li><p>Breece Hall ADP 32nd overall.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Buffalo Pass Catchers:</strong> Buffalo possesses the largest positive efficiency-to-ADP gap (+14 spots), making DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid prime value targets who will absorb concentrated targets in Joe Brady's 11 personnel sets.</p></li><li><p>Buffalo projected consensus top 3 offense.</p></li><li><p>James Cook ADP 10th overall.</p></li><li><p>DJ Moore ADP 62nd overall.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.19.26]]></title><description><![CDATA[11 episodes, 8 hours + 57 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-81926</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-81926</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:02:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We back!</p><p>The newsletter will go out every weekday this season.</p><p>It&#8217;s completely automated and free.</p><p>-Ethan</p><div><hr></div><p>For the full notes on all 11 episodes summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-81926-full-notes">LINK</a></p><h3><strong>Today's Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p>&#128680; <strong>Alvin Kamara sidelined</strong>: Alvin Kamara will miss at least one month with an MCL sprain, opening immediate lead-back workloads for Travis Etienne and De'Von Achane (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Early draft slots dominate</strong>: Simulation data shows Picks 1 through 4 offer the strongest structural advantage across all scoring formats in 12-team leagues (<em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li><li><p>&#128201; <strong>Giants backfield gets crowded</strong>: The Giants signed veteran RB Najee Harris, reducing projected draft value for rookies Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (<em>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h3>&#9889; Chase Brown (RB, CIN)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Brown offers top-10 RB upside as Cincinnati's clear lead back with minimal backfield competition.</p><ul><li><p>Brown averaged 21.0 PPR points per game with Joe Burrow and ranked top-five in backfield usage late last season (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li><li><p>His ADP has climbed into the late second round, forcing drafters to pay full price near the Round 1-2 turn (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128200; Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, NO)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Kamara's knee injury unlocks a massive early-season workload and elevates Etienne into top-16 territory.</p><ul><li><p>Kamara will miss at least one month with an MCL sprain, opening up three-down work and goal-line touches for Etienne (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers</em>).</p></li><li><p>Drafters have reacted quickly, pushing his ADP up multiple rounds across major draft platforms (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>, <em>Fantasy Footballers</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127919; Kenneth Gainwell (RB, TB)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Gainwell provides starting-caliber upside at a massive discount compared to teammate Bucky Irving.</p><ul><li><p>Gainwell is available in Rounds 9 to 13 despite projecting for high volume behind Tampa Bay's offensive line (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>The Audible</em>).</p></li><li><p>Irving remains in line for significant weekly touches when healthy, creating a shared committee backfield (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>The Audible</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128640; A.J. Brown (WR, NE)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Brown is locked in as New England's clear WR1 and poised for a career year with Drake Maye.</p><ul><li><p>Brown is building strong chemistry with Maye on deep throws and red-zone drills during camp (<em>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Today</em>).</p></li><li><p>Maye is still adjusting to pre-snap processing demands in Josh McDaniels' new offensive scheme (<em>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#128142; Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)</h3><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Kraft is a top-six fantasy TE target available at an injury discount outside the top 75.</p><ul><li><p>Kraft has averaged 2.3 fantasy points per target since 2023 in Green Bay's open passing tree (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</em>).</p></li><li><p>An offseason injury could lead to early-season snap limitations or missed time in Week 1 (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>, <em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>).</p></li></ul><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h3>&#9878;&#65039; Early TEs vs. Waiting on Value</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Fantasy managers must decide whether to spend early-round draft capital on elite TEs or hunt late-round value.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Drafting Brock Bowers or Trey McBride at the Round 2-3 turn secures dominant positional volume and week-winning scoring (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> The early opportunity cost is too steep when proven producers like George Kittle and Dallas Goedert are available in Rounds 6 to 9 (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>, <em>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</em>).</p></li></ul><h3>&#127939; Jeremiyah Love's Draft Price</h3><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Analysts are split on whether Jeremiyah Love's preseason role outweighs his high ankle sprain risk.</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> Love rose to RB11 after averaging 4.8 yards per carry in preseason action within Mike LaFleur's offense (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>).</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> Love is overpriced at RB13 while nursing an ankle injury, leaving Tyler Allgeier as the smarter late-round investment (<em>The Audible</em>, <em>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</em>).</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 8.19.26 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[11 episodes, 8 hours + 57 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-81926-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-81926-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:54:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>11 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>8 hours and 57 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Best Draft Position | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-19-26</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Mike Reiss: Previewing the New England Patriots' 2026 Season</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>The MOST Complicated Backfields to Assess for Your Draft! | Fantasy Focus</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>Win Your League with Scott Barrett's TE Rankings and Tiers (2026 Fantasy Football Sleepers)</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</strong>: <em>Exploiting ESPN ADP with Alex Cupps</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>2026 PPR Mock Draft Strategy &#8211; Picks 1 to 9: Dominate the Front Half of Your Draft! (08/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>FFT Express - Adam Aizer's All-In List! 5 Players to Target for 2026! Jared Goff, Chase Brown, Ladd McConkey &amp; More! (08/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>10 Tips &amp; Tricks to Win Your League + MEGALABOWL! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/19</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Audible</strong>: <em>Are You Drafting the Player&#8212;or the Price? On the Hotseat</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Leaning Into Injury Risk?</em> (August 19)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</strong>: <em>7 New Playcallers That Could Make or Break Your Fantasy Draft with Nate Tice</em> (August 19)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Draft Sharks - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Best Draft Position | Fantasy Football Podcast 8-19-26</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Securing a top-4 draft pick provides an elite Tier 1 asset in Round 1 and high 3D value in early Round 3, making early draft positions superior across all scoring formats in 2026 redraft leagues.</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>12-Team PPR Draft Strategy:</strong> Picks 1 through 4 strongly separate from the rest of the draft board in 12-team PPR formats, with Pick 1 and Pick 2 tied as optimal spots under Draft Sharks rankings. An optimal build leans into early WRs (e.g., Puka Nacua, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Tee Higgins), capitalizing on a flat Round 2 and sharp value cliff after early Round 3.</p></li><li><p>Tier 1 players (Puka Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase) rate between 96 and 100 in 3D value points vs. 70&#8211;76 for late Round 1 players (Justin Jefferson, James Cook).</p></li><li><p>Round 2 has only a ~5 3D value point gap from front to back, while early Round 3 WRs (57&#8211;63 points) outpace late Round 3 WRs (46&#8211;47 points) by 10&#8211;15 points.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>12-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy:</strong> Pick 2 is the best draft slot in half-PPR formats by both ADP and Draft Sharks rankings, anchored by Jahmyr Gibbs as the #1 overall half-PPR player. Elite QBs like Josh Allen gain value in early Round 3 because QB scoring remains unchanged while flex skill positions lose half a point per reception.</p></li><li><p>Optimal start from 1.02: Jahmyr Gibbs, Nico Collins, George Pickens, Davante Adams, Christian Watson.</p></li><li><p>Josh Allen and George Pickens offer a 10&#8211;15 3D value point edge in early Round 3 over late Round 3 options.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>12-Team Non-PPR Draft Strategy:</strong> Pick 1 is the best slot in standard non-PPR leagues, led by Jahmyr Gibbs. While RBs gain baseline value in non-PPR, public ADP overcorrects for TDs, creating massive draft discounts on elite WRs.</p></li><li><p>Jahmyr Gibbs sits 4 3D value points ahead of Bijan Robinson and 10 points ahead of Puka Nacua.</p></li><li><p>Optimal 1.01 draft build: Jahmyr Gibbs, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Christian Watson, Davante Adams, Tucker Kraft.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late-Round RB Targets:</strong> Drafting WR-heavy early allows fantasy managers to absorb the uncertainty of committee backfields starting in Round 6 and later, filling RB depth with projected touch leaders and ambiguous backfields.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Mike Reiss: Previewing the New England Patriots' 2026 Season</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> The Patriots are overhauling their offense around Drake Maye, integrating A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs alongside a deep WR room while challenging Maye to handle advanced pre-snap responsibilities in Josh McDaniels' system.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>A.J. Brown:</strong> Brown's chemistry with QB Drake Maye had a slow start in camp while matched against Christian Gonzalez, but it has begun clicking more, especially in tight-space red zone drills and on deep sideline shots.</p></li><li><p>Connected on a 65- to 70-yard deep ball in Monday's practice.</p></li><li><p>Traded to New England on June 1.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>New England WRs:</strong> The Patriots' receiver hierarchy is headed by A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, and DeMario Douglas as the top three, with Mack Hollins as the fourth receiver. Kayshon Boutte is working with the second unit and could be a trade candidate given the team's seven-man receiver depth.</p></li><li><p>Boutte recorded 33 catches last season.</p></li><li><p>Patriots currently rostering 7 viable WRs (Brown, Doubs, Douglas, Hollins, Boutte, Kyle Williams, Efton Chism III).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Drake Maye:</strong> The Patriots are increasing Maye's workload in Josh McDaniels' offense by introducing more tempo and requiring him to manage intensive pre-snap protection and front identifications.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Allen agreed to a one-year contract with the Colts worth up to $8.32 million, reuniting with head coach Shane Steichen to provide reliable third-down receiving value.</p></li><li><p>1-year deal worth up to $8.32 million.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Najee Harris:</strong> The Giants signed Harris following preseason blitz-pickup concerns while simultaneously releasing WR JuJu Smith-Schuster.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Christian Gonzalez:</strong> Gonzalez suffered an apparent ankle injury on August 10 while defending Romeo Doubs in the end zone and has missed practice since, though ongoing contract talks may also be accelerated following recent cornerback market deals.</p></li><li><p>Participated fully in the first 13 to 14 training camp practices before the August 10 injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Will Campbell:</strong> Campbell is locked in as the Patriots' starting left tackle after fully recovering his strength following a late-November MCL sprain suffered last season.</p></li><li><p>Started at top left tackle across 18 training camp practices.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>The MOST Complicated Backfields to Assess for Your Draft! | Fantasy Focus</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Navigating ambiguous backfields requires separating ADP cost from individual talent: heavily discounted complementary backs (like Kenneth Gainwell and Rico Dowdle) often provide superior draft value over costly committee starters.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> With Alvin Kamara expected to miss at least a month due to an MCL sprain, Achane sits at RB17 in rankings but becomes a viable pick over Breece Hall and Josh Jacobs due to injury and suspension risks.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo:</strong> The Giants' signing of Najee Harris ($3M guaranteed, up to $5.5M) introduces a modest downgrade and potential touch reduction for Skattebo, though any ADP slide from Round 4 into Round 5 or 6 represents buying value.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Stevenson holds greater draft appeal two rounds cheaper (Round 7) than TreVeyon Henderson (Round 5), as both cap each other's weekly upside in a shared Patriots backfield.</p></li><li><p>Stevenson had 70 touches to Henderson's 35 in last season's playoffs.</p></li><li><p>Henderson averaged 9.5 fantasy PPG when Stevenson played.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> Tuten is the highest-upside back in Jacksonville's committee, but his 5th-round ADP makes him a risky selection if relied upon as an RB2 given Chris Rodriguez's likely early-down/goal-line presence.</p></li><li><p>Rodriguez guaranteed over $6 million with only 7 career targets.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kenneth Gainwell:</strong> Gainwell is a primary late-round target who offers immense value at his 9th-to-13th round ADP compared to Bucky Irving in Round 5 or 6, especially with Irving getting zero carries inside the 5-yard line last season.</p></li><li><p>Sean Tucker had 9 inside-the-5 carries and 8 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Rico Dowdle:</strong> Dowdle is preferred over Jaylen Warren at cost in Pittsburgh, though Mike McCarthy's offenses historically rank near the bottom of the league in RB fantasy points and target shares.</p></li><li><p>McCarthy RB rooms finished 28th, 13th, 17th, 32nd, 32nd, 31st, 16th, and 29th in fantasy points over last 8 seasons.</p></li><li><p>McCarthy RB target share ranked 30th or worse in 6 of 8 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Brooks carries tournament-winning upside in Rounds 7&#8211;8 compared to Chuba Hubbard, who is dealing with a hamstring injury and averaged bottom-tier elusive ratings last season.</p></li><li><p>Brooks ranked RB32 vs. Hubbard RB33.</p></li><li><p>Hubbard 64th of 65 qualified backs in missed tackle rate and elusive rating.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Jacobs has fallen down rankings to RB15 due to groin injury management, heavy career workload at age 28, and looming league discipline/suspension risk.</p></li><li><p>Round 3-4 ADP.</p></li><li><p>30 TDs in 32 games with Green Bay.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Love moves up from RB14 to RB11 after demonstrating strong preseason efficiency (12 carries, 58 yards) within Mike LaFleur's creative offense.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Kittle is a major draft target in Round 9 given optimism that he will return by Week 1 or Week 2, offering top-5 weekly positional upside upon full integration.</p></li><li><p>Finished 6th or better in fantasy PPG among TEs for 8 consecutive seasons.</p></li><li><p>Ranked TE9 by Clay.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Blake Corum:</strong> Corum rises to RB30 as an elite contingency back who could see expanded second-half work after scoring all 6 of his rookie TDs between Weeks 9 and 18.</p></li><li><p>Kyren Williams had only 2 games with &gt;15 touches in that span.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>Win Your League with Scott Barrett's TE Rankings and Tiers (2026 Fantasy Football Sleepers)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Due to high opportunity cost and late-round value, early-round elite TEs like Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are rated lower relative to cost (B tier), while mid-to-late round targets like Tucker Kraft, George Kittle, and Dallas Goedert offer elite league-winning ceiling at major discounts (S tier).</p><ul><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> In standard 12-team PPR leagues, Bowers should be tiered as a B due to early-round opportunity cost, but represents an S-tier pick in 8-team formats and A-tier in TE-premium.</p></li><li><p>16.4 FPPG without knee brace (WR10 equivalent).</p></li><li><p>Raiders were 32nd in YPG, PPG, and EPA/play.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Trey McBride:</strong> Regressed offensive volume, potential QB change to Carson Beck, and normalized target rates make McBride a B-tier pick at ADP cost rather than a round-1 necessity.</p></li><li><p>667 routes run (156 more than next closest TE).</p></li><li><p>105 fantasy point gap to TE2.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Colston Loveland:</strong> Overpriced at ADP (C/D tier); Cole Kmet's presence and historical reliance on extreme negative game scripts create major ceiling downside at cost.</p></li><li><p>29% target share in final 4 games.</p></li><li><p>19.9 FPPG late season.</p></li><li><p>60% route share in only 4 of 15 games with healthy Kmet.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tyler Warren:</strong> Despite elite rookie and college production, Warren rates as a C-tier selection at current ADP due to opportunity cost at the position.</p></li><li><p>2.13 YPRR through first 10 weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Sam LaPorta:</strong> Target in round 6/7 as an A-tier draft value; Drew Petzing's offensive scheme heavily concentrates high route shares on starting TEs.</p></li><li><p>15.9 FPPG when route share is 75%+.</p></li><li><p>TE6 by ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Harold Fannin Jr.:</strong> Elite late-round target providing comparable production to Colston Loveland at a four-round ADP discount.</p></li><li><p>11.7 FPPG as a rookie.</p></li><li><p>TE7 ADP on Sleeper/Yahoo/ESPN.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> Draft Kraft in the S tier at an injury discount; pair him with a cheap early-season TE to capture his second-half and fantasy playoff ceiling.</p></li><li><p>TE6 ADP on Sleeper.</p></li><li><p>TE8 ADP on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>Ranked #1 or #2 TE in YPG/FPPG pre-injury.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> S-tier target at TE9 ADP who produces WR1-level fantasy points per game when Brock Purdy plays.</p></li><li><p>15.3 FPPG over last two years (equal to Justin Jefferson).</p></li><li><p>Goes 7 rounds later than Jefferson.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kyle Pitts:</strong> Avoid completely (F tier); vertical receiver skillset clashes with Kevin Stefanski's scheme prioritizing low aDOT and run-after-catch TEs.</p></li><li><p>1 100-yard game since 2022.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Dallas Goedert:</strong> Prioritize as an S-tier target at TE15 ADP; historically acts as the de facto #1 target when A.J. Brown is off the field.</p></li><li><p>TE6 by FPPG last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Isaiah Likely:</strong> Expected to operate as a high-volume receiving option, though rotation and route share caps present risk.</p></li><li><p>16.2 FPPG in 9 full games without Mark Andrews.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Per-route efficiency is top tier (over 3.0 YPRR), but route participation under 70% and potential run-game tells limit top-3 overall TE upside.</p></li><li><p>44% route share on dropbacks.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mark Andrews:</strong> Solid B-tier target with reduced target competition following departures of Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely.</p></li><li><p>1.33 YPRR last season.</p></li><li><p>TE15 in average separation score last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Travis Kelce:</strong> Avoid at cost (F tier); lacks week-winning ceiling and experiences sharp efficiency drop-offs when Rashee Rice is on the field.</p></li><li><p>18.6 FPPG historically vs 12.7 FPPG recently.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry</h2><p><em>Exploiting ESPN ADP with Alex Cupps</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> ESPN's default 10-team, 1-QB standard draft format creates significant ADP lag and mispricing on high-upside players, allowing fantasy drafters to capture immense draft value by targeting undervalued upside profiles ahead of ESPN's consensus.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Target Caleb Williams ahead of his ESPN ADP (QB11, 93rd overall). In Ben Johnson's offense with reduced sack rates and strong rushing floor, he projects as an elite upside QB1.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry rank: QB7, 73rd overall.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: QB7, 65th overall.</p></li><li><p>Year 2 stats: Sack rate dropped from 10.8% to 4.1%; TD rate rose from 3.6% to 4.9%; YPA rose from 6.3 to 6.9.</p></li><li><p>3,500+ passing yards and 350+ rushing yards in each of the past two seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Draft Chase Brown in the late second round to exploit his depressed 3rd-round ESPN ADP. With Zack Moss gone, he commands a workhorse role in a high-powered Bengals offense.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP: RB13, 26th overall.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry rank: RB9, 15th overall.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: RB8, 16th overall.</p></li><li><p>RB6 in fantasy PPG since Week 9 of 2024; top-5 usage last season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Chris Godwin:</strong> Godwin represents massive late-round flex value at pick 148 on ESPN, stepping into primary slot duties in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans departed and Emeka Egbuka banged up.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP: WR53, 148th overall.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry rank: WR33, 69th overall.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: WR35, 76th overall.</p></li><li><p>25% target rate on routes run over the last three years with Mike Evans off the field.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Burden is an elite upside draft target in round 7/8 on ESPN, possessing world-class efficiency and yards after catch metrics despite a lower baseline rookie PPG.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP: 77th overall.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry rank: WR22, 43rd overall.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: WR21, 41st overall.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Blake Corum:</strong> Draft Corum as a standalone bye-week plug-in and top-tier contingency league-winner who is currently being drafted five rounds too late on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP: RB39, 140th overall.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry rank: RB34, 93rd overall.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: RB32, 86th overall.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 55 rushing yards per game from Week 9 onward; logged 10+ carries in 7 of the final 11 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Tucker Kraft:</strong> Target Tucker Kraft as a top-6 TE value outside the top 100 on ESPN. His high efficiency and open target tree in Green Bay give him an elite floor-ceiling combo.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry rank: TE5, 74th overall.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: TE6, 79th overall.</p></li><li><p>Averaging 2.3 fantasy points per target since 2023 (second only to George Kittle).</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Travis Etienne:</strong> Elevate Travis Etienne into mid-RB2/RB1 territory due to Alvin Kamara's MCL sprain, opening up three-down work and high-value receiving opportunities.</p></li><li><p>Both hosts moved Etienne up to RB16 (Berry at 39 overall).</p></li><li><p>Etienne has over 1,300 yards from scrimmage in each of past 4 seasons.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Flowers offers high target-share safety and positive TD regression candidate going a round and a half after his true value on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP: WR17, 42nd overall.</p></li><li><p>Matthew Berry rank: WR15, 32nd overall.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: WR14, 28th overall.</p></li><li><p>29% target share in 2025; 6th most receiving yards in NFL.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>De'Zhaun Stribling:</strong> Target 49ers rookie WR De'Zhaun Stribling late in drafts (ADP WR68, pick 169) before his price adjusts, given his 33rd overall draft capital and severe injury attrition in SF's pass-catching corps.</p></li><li><p>Alex Cupps rank: WR47, 112th overall.</p></li><li><p>Played in the slot on 60% of preseason snaps.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Bhayshul Tuten:</strong> While Tuten represents an overall value at pick 80 on ESPN, acknowledge a wide range of outcomes due to limited rookie receiving production and potential goal-line vulturing.</p></li><li><p>ESPN ADP: RB25, 80th overall.</p></li><li><p>Both hosts rank him at RB23 (Berry 55 overall, Cupps 59 overall).</p></li><li><p>Averaged 0.7 receptions per game in rookie season.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>2026 PPR Mock Draft Strategy &#8211; Picks 1 to 9: Dominate the Front Half of Your Draft! (08/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft strategy should adapt to positional tier drop-offs: early drafters (picks 1-6) benefit from capitalizing on elite WRs and TEs early before targeting RB depth in rounds 4-6, whereas draft slots 7-9 open strong viability for RB-heavy starts.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>De'Von Achane:</strong> With Alvin Kamara sidelined approximately a month due to a knee injury, De'Von Achane's fantasy stock rises into a top-15 RB valuation, making him viable in rounds 3 to 4.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Cam Skattebo &amp; Tyrone Tracy:</strong> The Giants signing Najee Harris casts doubt on the backfield distribution and slightly dings Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy's draft equity.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Evans is dealing with tightness after already missing two weeks due to a quad injury, making him a risky selection in round 5.</p></li><li><p>Missed 2 weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy: Picks 1-3:</strong> At the 2-3 turn, WR talent is significantly stronger than RB talent. If starting with an elite RB (Gibbs/Bijan), drafting WR/WR or WR/TE at the turn is the optimal structural build.</p></li><li><p>Picks 1-3.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy: Picks 4-6:</strong> Starting WR-WR-WR or WR-WR-TE is preferred from slots 4-6 unless an elite top-12 RB falls unexpectedly, as valuable starting RBs remain available in rounds 4 and 5.</p></li><li><p>Rounds 1-3 WR target.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Draft Strategy: Picks 7-9:</strong> Slots 7-9 offer the best leverage to start RB-RB (e.g., Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry), pausing on RBs until rounds 7-8 to stack WRs through the middle rounds.</p></li><li><p>No RBs rounds 4-6 after RB-RB start.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>TE Strategy:</strong> Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are prime targets at the round 2-3 turn, while Colston Loveland represents an ideal target in late round 3 or round 4.</p></li><li><p>Pick 20+ for Bowers.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>FFT Express - Adam Aizer's All-In List! 5 Players to Target for 2026! Jared Goff, Chase Brown, Ladd McConkey &amp; More! (08/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Targeting high-efficiency offenses and elite role shifts&#8212;such as Chase Brown's locked-in lead backfield workload, A.J. Brown with Drake Maye in New England, Ladd McConkey in Los Angeles, and Mike Evans in San Francisco&#8212;provides significant draft value at current ADPs.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jared Goff:</strong> Jared Goff represents an elite late-round QB target after pick 100 thanks to finishing as a top-12 QB per-game over two consecutive seasons and benefiting from an indoor-heavy schedule with 11 dome games.</p></li><li><p>Plays 11 games indoors; does not play an outdoor game in the second half of the season until Week 17.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Chase Brown is worth drafting near the round 1/2 turn (pick 10-11 for Azer, RB4 overall for Eisenberg) due to an elite ceiling in Joe Burrow's offense and minimal backfield competition.</p></li><li><p>Current ADP: 13th overall on CBS, 15th on FantasyPros.</p></li><li><p>Ranked as RB4 by Jamie Eisenberg.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 21.0 PPR PPG with Joe Burrow last season.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 20.6 PPR PPG over the final 8 games of the season two years prior.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>A.J. Brown:</strong> Draft A.J. Brown in the middle of Round 2 as New England's clear WR1; he is positioned for a career-high fantasy scoring season catching passes from Drake Maye.</p></li><li><p>Current ADP: 2-3 turn on CBS, 21st on FantasyPros.</p></li><li><p>Averaged 18.6 PPG over his last 7 regular season games.</p></li><li><p>Projected by Adam Azer to exceed 18.0 PPG for the first time in his career.</p></li><li><p>Patriots offense threw 31 TD passes last year compared to the Eagles never topping 26 with Brown.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Ladd McConkey:</strong> Ladd McConkey is an easy Round 4 target as the Chargers' primary target earner and YAC receiver following Keenan Allen's departure.</p></li><li><p>Current ADP: 45th overall on CBS, 46th on FantasyPros.</p></li><li><p>Projected floor around 15 PPR PPG with upside to 17-18 PPG according to Jamie Eisenberg.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Mike Evans:</strong> Mike Evans is a high-upside steal in Round 5 or Round 6 as the potential top target and primary red-zone receiver in San Francisco's offense following Ricky Pearsall's season-ending injury.</p></li><li><p>Current ADP: 66th overall on CBS, 64th on FantasyPros.</p></li><li><p>San Francisco projectable for at least 30 passing TDs.</p></li><li><p>Has 6 career seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards and 10+ TDs.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>10 Tips &amp; Tricks to Win Your League + MEGALABOWL! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/19</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Draft strategy in 2026 should exploit structural market shifts: take advantage of discounted elite/mid-round QBs, avoid overdrafted RBs in the resurrected dead zone (rounds 4&#8211;8), stash backup RBs with predictable injury upside while churning early waiver wire WRs, and avoid bias from previous years' injuries.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Alvin Kamara &amp; Travis Etienne Jr.:</strong> Kamara will miss at least one month due to a sprained MCL, giving a substantial immediate workload bump and early-season value to Travis Etienne Jr.</p></li><li><p>1 month minimum absence for Kamara.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jayden Higgins, Tank Dell &amp; Dalton Schultz:</strong> Texans WR Jayden Higgins suffered a torn ACL, clearing target volume for Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, and TE Dalton Schultz, who becomes a major target especially in TE premium formats.</p></li><li><p>80+ projected catch upside for Dalton Schultz in TE premium.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Roster Construction &amp; Depth Strategy:</strong> RB injuries transfer value predictably to clear handcuffs/committee backups (e.g., Blake Corum, Tank Bigsby, Kenneth Gainwell), whereas WR injuries scatter targets across offenses. Allocate late-round draft capital to backup RBs and address WR depth via early-season waiver wire churn.</p></li><li><p>27% chance of a RB playing a full season.</p></li><li><p>7 out of 10 RBs miss games.</p></li><li><p>Only 6 of top 24 and 2 of top 12 drafted WRs played a full season last year.</p></li><li><p>Only 36% of RB1s beat draft slot since 2010.</p></li><li><p>Roughly 50% of first 9 picks underperform ADP or get injured.</p></li><li><p>12 to 15 starts lost per team to injuries.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Mock Drafting &amp; Platform ADP Disparities:</strong> Conduct mock drafts using the specific ADP of the hosting platform (ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper) to map branching early-round draft plans ('if this, then that') based on major pricing discrepancies.</p></li><li><p>Tee Higgins: Round 3 on Yahoo vs Round 5 on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>David Montgomery: Round 5 vs Round 7 on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>Travis Etienne: Round 4 on Sleeper vs Round 7 on ESPN.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Late-Draft Target Marking:</strong> Pre-mark and highlight late-round targets and falling veterans on cheat sheets before the draft to avoid missing them when scrolling quickly during late rounds.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Streaming &amp; Late-Round TE Thresholds:</strong> If missing out on elite early TEs, target late-round or waiver options that meet statistical baseline thresholds: 17&#8211;20%+ target share, 45+ receiving yards per game (54+ for top-6 upside), high route percentage, and 15%+ air yard share.</p></li><li><p>17% to 20% target share threshold.</p></li><li><p>Kyle Pitts: 21% target share, 86% route %, 21% air yard share.</p></li><li><p>Sam LaPorta: 18% target share.</p></li><li><p>Hunter Henry: 17% target share, 72% route %, 15% air yard share.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Roster Churn for Late-Round Picks:</strong> Move on quickly after Week 1 or Week 2 from unproductive late-round skill players (rounds 11&#8211;15) to grab early-season waiver breakouts, holding only elite backup insurance RBs.</p></li><li><p>Only 4 of 60 players drafted in rounds 11&#8211;15 made an impact in month 1 last year (2 were QBs).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>QB Market Shift &amp; Mid-Round Values:</strong> Elite QB ADP has dropped from the 2nd/3rd round into the 4th through 6th rounds, making mid-round elite signal-callers strong value investments without prohibitive opportunity costs.</p></li><li><p>Lamar Jackson (QB2): Early 4th round ADP (1.5 rounds later than 2025 QB2).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Aging Player Decline &amp; WR Age Cliff:</strong> Drafting the 10 oldest drafted players inside the top 9 rounds yields poor historical returns, with older WRs having the highest bust and injury risk (21% hit rate). Unless an older player demonstrates an established 'encore effect', exercise caution.</p></li><li><p>10-year historical sample of 10 oldest drafted players: 30 wins (30%), 50 losses (50%), 20 pushes.</p></li><li><p>Key 2026 aging targets in top 12 rounds: Matthew Stafford (38), Travis Kelce (37), Davante Adams, Mike Evans, George Kittle, Stefon Diggs, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>RB Dead Zone Return:</strong> The RB dead zone has re-emerged in rounds 4&#8211;8 because early-round RB scarcity is artificially pushing mediocre starters significantly higher than their baseline projection value.</p></li><li><p>RB24 ADP: Mid-5th round (compared to 7th round in 2024).</p></li><li><p>RB36 ADP: 8th round (compared to 10th round in 2024).</p></li><li><p>David Montgomery: Drafted ~15 spots ahead of projected ADP.</p></li><li><p>Tony Pollard: Drafted ~11 spots ahead of projected ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Early Season Vegas Underdog Correlation:</strong> Teams projected as betting underdogs in 3 or more of their first 4 games struggle offensively and severely limit RB production; use this metric as an early-season tiebreaker.</p></li><li><p>In 2025, 7 of 8 teams favored in &lt;=1 of first 4 games won &lt;=1 game.</p></li><li><p>6 of 8 finished bottom 10 in scoring and &lt;1 rushing TD per game.</p></li><li><p>2026 teams underdogs in 3+ of first 4: Arizona, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Miami, NY Jets, Denver.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Psychological Bias &amp; Slate Cleaning:</strong> Avoid anchoring or emotional bias against elite players who burned fantasy rosters due to injuries or fluky bad beats in previous seasons.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Audible</h2><p><em>Are You Drafting the Player&#8212;or the Price? On the Hotseat</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Revisiting draft convictions when roles, schemes, or health situations shift is crucial to exploiting market mispricings, particularly with undervalued veteran depth and miscast secondary receivers.</p><ul><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Saquon Barkley:</strong> Barkley remains a safe pick at the Round 1/Round 2 turn despite transitioning to Philadelphia's outside-zone rushing scheme, projecting for solid volume behind an athletic offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Projected ~1,200 rushing yards.</p></li><li><p>Projected ~300 receiving yards.</p></li><li><p>Projected 10+ total TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jeremiyah Love &amp; Tyler Allgeier:</strong> Love is overvalued at his RB13 draft price due to an ankle sprain and projected committee split, making Allgeier a significant late-round value in Arizona's run-heavy offense.</p></li><li><p>Allgeier drafted at RB47 in Round 12.</p></li><li><p>Projected team totals: 330&#8211;340 rush attempts.</p></li><li><p>Love projected for 180&#8211;185 carries, 70&#8211;75 targets.</p></li><li><p>Allgeier projected for 125&#8211;140 carries (potential up to 180 carries), 40&#8211;45 targets split across backfield.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Quinshon Judkins:</strong> Judkins is a high-floor, safe RB2 target at his RB21 price point due to heavy three-down projected volume in Cleveland.</p></li><li><p>Projected ~280 rush attempts.</p></li><li><p>Projected 40&#8211;50 targets.</p></li><li><p>Projected 1,300&#8211;1,400 scrimmage yards and 10&#8211;12 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Kenneth Gainwell vs. Bucky Irving:</strong> Gainwell should be drafted ahead of Irving due to Irving's shoulder injury concerns and Gainwell's reliability and high projected workload behind Tampa Bay's offensive line.</p></li><li><p>Bucky Irving drafted as RB23.</p></li><li><p>Kenneth Gainwell drafted as RB35/RB40 (three rounds later).</p></li><li><p>Gainwell projected: ~885 rushing yards, 310 receiving yards, 11 total TDs.</p></li><li><p>Irving projected: ~120 carries, 460 rushing yards, 4 TDs (600&#8211;700 total yards).</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Flowers is a safe bargain at WR15 given Baltimore's offensive scheme shift and a healthy Lamar Jackson.</p></li><li><p>Finished as WR7 last year.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Michael Wilson vs. Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> Wilson is positioned to dramatically outperform Harrison due to his role in the slot/zero alignment and superior contested-catch and route-running abilities.</p></li><li><p>Marvin Harrison Jr. drafted as WR32.</p></li><li><p>Michael Wilson drafted as WR38 (round 6 to 8).</p></li><li><p>Wilson projected: 140+ targets, ~100 receptions, 1,250&#8211;1,300 receiving yards, 8&#8211;10 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tee Higgins:</strong> Higgins is overvalued relative to true primary options drafted after him (e.g., Tetairoa McMillan, Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden) because his skillset is that of a boundary complementary piece rather than an all-around number one receiver.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Dart carries severe bust risk at QB11 due to poor deep accuracy beyond 25 yards, pocket navigation issues, and reckless rushing tendencies.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Travis Kelce:</strong> Kelce is a solid low-end TE1 value around TE10 because his route nuance and off-script connection with Patrick Mahomes compensate for declining athleticism.</p></li><li><p>Drafted as TE10 (age 37).</p></li><li><p>Projected: 110 targets, ~855 receiving yards, 6 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Dalton Kincaid:</strong> Kincaid's ceiling is capped as a low-end TE1 in Buffalo's spread-out passing attack where he operates behind DJ Moore and Khalil Shakir in target priority.</p></li><li><p>Projected: ~740 receiving yards, 6 TDs.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Leaning Into Injury Risk?</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> While training camp injuries and rising late-round ADPs compress mid-draft value, fantasy drafters should lean into structural advantages, embrace late-round discounts on talented injured players, and target high-upside mobility at QB.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jordyn Tyson:</strong> Remains draftable in the 140s range despite lingering hamstring issues, as early-season absences carry low opportunity cost when roster depth is healthy, but drafters should discount him behind players like KC Concepcion.</p></li><li><p>Could return around Weeks 4 to 6.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Keenan Allen:</strong> Represents solid late-round value in Round 19 following his signing with the Indianapolis, where target competition is relatively soft behind Josh Downs and Tyler Warren.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jonathon Brooks:</strong> Jonathon Brooks has risen roughly 40 picks into the late sixth round, creating a value gap that makes Chuba Hubbard or pivot options like Rhamondre Stevenson and Jaylen Warren more palatable at ADP.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> Falling to the late seventh round makes Hurts an exceptional value with high designed-run upside in bounce-back schemes.</p></li><li><p>Drafted in late Round 7.</p></li><li><p>Had 40 fewer designed runs the previous season.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Malik Willis:</strong> Malik Willis holds top-6 QB upside if granted rushing volume of 10 to 12 attempts per game with deep-ball passing potential in trailing game scripts.</p></li><li><p>Potential for 1,000 rushing yards.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Ringer Fantasy Football Show</h2><p><em>7 New Playcallers That Could Make or Break Your Fantasy Draft with Nate Tice</em></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Coaching scheme changes significantly alter volume and upside for fantasy assets, creating prime buy opportunities for players in Shanahan/Kubiak-style run-and-explosive offenses like the Chargers, Raiders, and Lions, while raising red flags for stagnant or misaligned systems like the Titans under Brian Daboll.</p><ul><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> Hampton is poised for an explosive fantasy season in Mike McDaniel's Chargers offense, which excels at blocking angle variation and unlocking RB efficiency; Nate Tice is comfortable drafting him as early as picks 9&#8211;10 overall.</p></li><li><p>Ringer rank: 15 overall.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Keaton Mitchell:</strong> Target Keaton Mitchell as an upside late-round handcuff/change-of-pace back who could see a high-value 30% touch share, particularly on perimeter runs and red zone designs inside the 15-yard line.</p></li><li><p>70-30 projected backfield split.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> Do not project designated QB rushing volume for Herbert under McDaniel; his rushing will primarily come via scrambles rather than designed runs, settling around a 5% to 6% scramble rate.</p></li><li><p>Led all QBs in rushing with 34 rushing YPG through first 9 weeks of prior season.</p></li><li><p>Scramble rate: 8% last year, 5.5% two years prior, projected 5-6%.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Lamar Jackson:</strong> Expect Ravens OC Declan Doyle to run a chunk-heavy, vertical passing attack that maximizes Jackson's pocket passing and explosive plays, offsetting a steady decline in Jackson's designed rushing volume.</p></li><li><p>Rushing YPG dropped from 80 in 2019 to 26 last year.</p></li><li><p>Designed runs dropped from 7.5 per game to ~2.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Flowers remains an efficient between-the-20s receiver who faces capped fantasy TD upside due to size limitations and low target priority in the red zone.</p></li><li><p>Average finish WR29 over last two seasons.</p></li><li><p>5th in target rate, 7th in YPRR between the 20s.</p></li><li><p>Tied for 50th in red zone targets over last two years.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Jeanty is a strong target around his 10th overall ADP in Clint Kubiak's zone run scheme, with an 80th-percentile projection of approximately 1,800 total yards and 15&#8211;16 total TDs (mirroring De'Von Achane's role).</p></li><li><p>Achane baseline: 1,350 rush yards, 8 rush TDs, 67 catches, 488 rec yards, 4 rec TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Bowers is projected to be the focal point of the Raiders' passing attack in Kubiak's tight-end-friendly offense (reminiscent of Jordan Reed in 2015), making him worthy of early-round consideration over WR1s like A.J. Brown or Drake London.</p></li><li><p>Jordan Reed comp: 950 yards, 11 TDs in 14 games (2015).</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Michael Wilson:</strong> Draft Michael Wilson as a value pick in drafts; his blocking ability and versatile alignment make him an ideal fit for Mike LaFleur's offensive system.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> Treat Harrison Jr. as a buy-low if he slides in drafts; expect him to function in a Brandin Cooks-style finesse route-running role on in-breaking dig routes rather than an overpowering contested-catch alpha.</p></li><li><p>Projected career baseline: ~1,200 yards, 7-8 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Jeremiyah Love:</strong> Exercise caution drafting Love early in seasonal redraft leagues due to his high ankle sprain timeline (4&#8211;6 weeks) and Tyler Allgeier's established 30% to 35% snap share in pass protection and early-season work.</p></li><li><p>Expected backfield snap split: 65-35 or 70-30.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Tennessee Offense:</strong> Fade Titans skill players at cost (including Cam Ward, Tony Pollard, Wandale Robinson, and Carnell Tate) due to concerning preseason execution, poor screen-game timing, and Brian Daboll's scheme limitations.</p></li><li><p>&#128302; <strong>Sam LaPorta:</strong> Expect LaPorta to be the primary passing beneficiary under new Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who heavily incorporates multi-tight end sets and empty formations with Jared Goff throwing intermediate dig routes.</p></li><li><p>&#128161; <strong>Emeka Egbuka:</strong> Target Egbuka well above his consensus WR18&#8211;19 ranking; in Zach Robinson's two-receiver sets with Mike Evans gone and Chris Godwin in an auxiliary role, Egbuka has top-10 WR ceiling potential.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 12.26.25]]></title><description><![CDATA[7 episodes, 5 hours + 20 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-122625</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-122625</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 26 Dec 2025 21:00:45 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey - Ethan here. This is the final edition of FF Hound for the 2025 fantasy season. </p><p>Thank you for following along with this weird experiment.</p><p>Go get some hardware this weekend &#127942;</p><div><hr></div><p><strong>For the full notes on all 7 podcasts summarized &#8594; <a href="/__u/ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-122625-full-notes">LINK</a></strong></p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Today&#8217;s Big Picture</strong></h3><ul><li><p><strong>&#129301; Week 17 injuries:</strong> Lamar Jackson (back) is doubtful, revise expectations for Baltimore&#8217;s offense. George Kittle (ankle) and Davante Adams (hamstring) are also major concerns.</p></li><li><p><strong>&#127919; Smash the matchup:</strong> Exploit weak matchups. Ashton Jeanty faces a Giants defense allowing the 3rd-most points to RBs, while Chris Olave gets a porous Titans secondary.</p></li><li><p><strong>&#128201; QB pressure cooker:</strong> Justin Herbert faces a Texans defense with the NFL&#8217;s 2nd-highest pressure rate (45%), making him a consensus fade.</p></li><li><p><strong>&#128200; Kyle Pitts SZN:</strong> Keep an eye on surging usage. TE Kyle Pitts has seen more red zone targets in his last 2 games (5) than in his first 13 combined.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Player Briefings</strong></h3><h4>&#127919; Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV)</h4><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>The rookie&#8217;s a consensus smash play against a soft NYG run defense.</strong></p><ul><li><p>A top-5 play vs. the Giants, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs and 6 yards per carry over the last 5 weeks. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football, Fantasy Football Daily</em>)</p></li><li><p>He averages over 20 PPG in games where he receives 18+ touches. (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour</em>)</p></li></ul><h4>&#128201; Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)</h4><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>A risky flex play with backup QB Tyler Huntley under center.</strong></p><ul><li><p>With Huntley starting, Flowers falls to the WR21/22 range, as the QB has topped 200 passing yards just four times in 15 career starts. (<em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast, Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li><li><p>The Ravens&#8217; team scoring plummets from 27.7 PPG with Lamar Jackson to just 16.2 PPG without him. (<em>The Audible</em>)</p></li></ul><h4>&#128293; Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)</h4><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>His elite, late-season red zone usage makes him a high-upside TE1.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He&#8217;s seen more red zone targets in his last two games (5) than in his first 13 games combined. (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li><li><p>Analysts note he&#8217;s playing much better in a contract year and becoming a primary target for the Falcons. (<em>Fantasy Feast</em>)</p></li></ul><h4>&#128556; Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)</h4><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>Fade Herbert due to a brutal matchup Week 17 against an elite Houston pass rush.</strong></p><ul><li><p>Herbert&#8217;s offensive line allows pressure at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL. (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour</em>)</p></li><li><p>He faces a Texans defense that ranks 2nd in pressure rate (45%) <em>without</em> blitzing, projecting him as a low-end QB2 this week. (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>)</p></li></ul><h4>&#127919; Chris Olave (WR, NO)</h4><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> <strong>A top-5 WR this week against a vulnerable secondary.</strong></p><ul><li><p>He commands a massive 28% target share from QB Tyler Shough and is set to face a porous Titans secondary. (<em>Fantasy Football Happy Hour</em>)</p></li><li><p>This incredible volume (25%+ target share in 5 of his last 6 games) gives him a low-end WR1 floor. (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Top Strategic Debates</strong></h3><h4>&#129300; Michael Wilson Worries</h4><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Is Wilson a risky play with MHJ back?</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> He&#8217;s the preferred Cardinals WR and a solid start, having hit at least 13 fantasy points in five of his last six games. (<em>Fantasy Focus Football</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> He&#8217;s a trap. With Harrison Jr. active, Wilson&#8217;s slot rate jumped to 58.3%, and he has never produced a good fantasy game when playing alongside him. (<em>Fantasy Football Today</em>)</p></li></ul><h4>&#127183; The Taysom Hill Gamble</h4><p><strong>The Divide:</strong> Is his unique, multi-positional role a championship-winning cheat code or a high-risk trap?</p><ul><li><p><strong>The Bulls say...</strong> He offers massive upside as a cheap TE after seeing 12 carries and 4 catches on a 43% snap share last week. (<em>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast, Fantasy Football Daily</em>)</p></li><li><p><strong>The Bears say...</strong> The floor is near zero. While the usage was great, his snap share remains under 50%, making him a TD-or-bust streamer who could get you nothing. (<em>Fantasy Football Daily</em>)</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><p>-Ethan</p><p>PS - I&#8217;ve canceled all paid subscriptions. Thank you for the support!</p><p>PPS - Kyle Pitts 2026 &#128127;</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[🏈🐶 FF Hound | 12.26.25 (full notes)]]></title><description><![CDATA[7 episodes, 5 hours + 20 minutes]]></description><link>https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-122625-full-notes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://ffhound.substack.com/p/ff-hound-122625-full-notes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[FF Hound]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 26 Dec 2025 20:46:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JyNg!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7772f6fd-966b-4b75-8d26-401c5952454a_1024x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This report summarizes <strong>7 episodes</strong> totaling <strong>5 hours and 20 minutes</strong> of audio content.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Episodes Processed:</h2><ul><li><p><strong>Fantasy Feast</strong>: <em>Greg Cosell: 2025 NFL Week 17 Preview Part Two + Christmas Games Reaction</em></p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Focus Football</strong>: <em>&#128680;&#127944; SECURING Your Fantasy Football Championship! | Fantasy Focus</em></p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Daily</strong>: <em>Week 17 Start/Sit Decisions | Championship Week Lineup Locks &amp; Risky Fades</em></p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Happy Hour</strong>: <em>Week 17 Love/Hate: Ashton Jeanty, Chris Olave, Brock Purdy + Christmas Day standouts</em></p></li><li><p><strong>Fantasy Football Today</strong>: <em>Start or Sit (NFC): Michael Wilson, Bears RBs and WRs, Josh Jacobs and More Tough Calls (12/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p></li><li><p><strong>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</strong>: <em>Undervalued Players For 2026 &amp; Championship Injury Decisions</em></p></li><li><p><strong>The Audible</strong>: <em>Week 17 Starts with a Thud; Lamar Doubtful, Packers QBs, &amp; More [Footballguys Daily Update 12/26]</em></p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Feast</h2><p><em>Greg Cosell: 2025 NFL Week 17 Preview Part Two + Christmas Games Reaction</em></p><p><a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F0vzShvQJ4YFDFF2ElSxv5t%3Fsi%3Df53645a0e66e4e2a">Spotify</a> // <a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcasts.apple.com%2Fus%2Fpodcast%2Ffantasy-feast-nfl-fantasy-football-podcast%2Fid898834773">Apple Podcasts</a></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley are seeing elite volume and production, leading the NFL in rushing yards and 10+ yard runs, respectively, over the last past weeks. Bijan Robinson&#8217;s fantasy ceiling is boosted by his unique usage, lining up as a receiver on over 20% of his snaps.</p><ul><li><p>&#128200; <strong>Cam Ward:</strong> Has thrown 8 touchdowns with only 1 interception over his last seven games against a slate of tough defenses including the Chargers, Texans, Seahawks, Jaguars, Browns, 49ers, and Chiefs.</p></li><li><p>&#128014; <strong>Tony Pollard:</strong> Leads the entire NFL in rushing yards over the last three games.</p></li><li><p>&#129413; <strong>Saquon Barkley:</strong> Over the last three games, he has the most carries and the most 10+ yard runs in the NFL.</p></li><li><p>&#129504; <strong>49ers Offensive Strategy:</strong> Utilizes 21 personnel (2 RBs, 1 TE) on close to 50% of their offensive plays, eschewing the modern trend of 11 personnel.</p></li><li><p>&#128015; <strong>Rams Offensive Strategy:</strong> Heavily favors base personnel, playing 54 snaps with three tight ends (13 personnel) in their last game.</p></li><li><p>&#9992;&#65039; <strong>Bijan Robinson:</strong> Highlights his unique receiving upside by lining up detached from the formation as a split receiver on over 20% of his offensive snaps.</p></li><li><p>&#129301; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Has been placed on Injured Reserve, a significant blow for the Raiders&#8217; offense.</p></li><li><p>&#128006; <strong>Jaguars Defense:</strong> Suffered a key loss with starting nickelback Jordan Lewis being placed on Injured Reserve, potentially creating favorable matchups for opposing slot receivers.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Focus Football</h2><p><em>&#128680;&#127944; SECURING Your Fantasy Football Championship! | Fantasy Focus</em></p><p><a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F55toF30GeLKhJYGr3JPQpG%3Fsi%3Da03bdf9f700c421e">Spotify</a> // <a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcasts.apple.com%2Fus%2Fpodcast%2Ffantasy-focus-football%2Fid260537420">Apple Podcasts</a></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Trevor Lawrence is a must-start QB, ranking in the top 7 four of the last five weeks with 17 total TDs in that span. Downgrade Zay Flowers to a flex option with Tyler Huntley at QB, who has rarely topped 200 passing yards in his career.</p><ul><li><p>&#128201; <strong>George Pickens:</strong> Disappointed in championships, with under 10 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128553; <strong>Justin Jefferson:</strong> A tough season finale, with 5 of his last 6 games resulting in under 8.8 fantasy points.</p></li><li><p>&#127906; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs:</strong> A roller-coaster finish to the season, scoring 11.6 or fewer fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games and totaling just 43 yards on 24 carries in his last two.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kenny Gainwell:</strong> A PPR machine who is a clear start, posting exactly 7 targets and at least 5 catches in each of his last 3 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128170; <strong>Derrick Henry:</strong> Still a startable RB15 this week; in his one full game with QB Tyler Huntley, he had 21 carries for 71 yards and 2 TDs.</p></li><li><p>&#128071; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Downgraded to a flex option with QB Tyler Huntley, who has topped 200 passing yards in only 4 of his 15 career starts.</p></li><li><p>&#128293; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> A must-start QB who has been a top-7 fantasy QB in 4 of the last 5 weeks, scoring 17 total touchdowns in that span.</p></li><li><p>&#129301; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> A risky flex play due to a persistent heel injury; he played only 51% of snaps last week.</p></li><li><p>&#9989; <strong>Michael Wilson:</strong> A much safer Cardinals WR play, ranked as a top-15 option having scored at least 13 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games.</p></li><li><p>&#9888;&#65039; <strong>Buccaneers WRs:</strong> A committee approach limits upside; 5 different WRs played between 25-66% of snaps last week, with <strong>Mike Evans</strong> (66%) being the only confident start.</p></li><li><p>&#127939;&#8205;&#9794;&#65039; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> A low-end RB2 and must-start, but his receiving work has plummeted with just 1 catch in each of his last two games since returning from injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128200; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> A potential championship-winner if TreVeyon Henderson (concussion) is out; the Jets rank 28th against fantasy RBs.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Wan&#8217;Dale Robinson:</strong> Volume makes him a high-end flex play, ranking 9th in the NFL in targets overall and 7th since Malik Nabers&#8217; injury.</p></li><li><p>&#128165; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Set up for a big week against the Giants, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.</p></li><li><p>&#128683; <strong>Bills Pass-Catchers:</strong> Avoid this group in your championship; every WR and TE is considered a &#8220;dice roll&#8221; outside of lineup locks Josh Allen and James Cook.</p></li><li><p>&#128640; <strong>Brock Purdy:</strong> Locked-in starter who has scored 28 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks heading into a great matchup.</p></li><li><p>&#128657; <strong>Brock Bowers:</strong> Officially on IR and unavailable for fantasy championships; managers need to find a replacement.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Daily</h2><p><em>Week 17 Start/Sit Decisions | Championship Week Lineup Locks &amp; Risky Fades</em></p><p><a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F34IjKYxaO3VKG8e6RyMFiG%3Fsi%3D999113b8361c4788">Spotify</a> // <a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcasts.apple.com%2Fus%2Fpodcast%2Ffantasy-football-daily%2Fid1667951858">Apple Podcasts</a></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Fade Justin Herbert (projected QB18/19) against the Texans&#8217; elite pass rush (45% pressure rate). In a thin TE week, the top streamers are Hunter Henry, Taysom Hill, and Mike Gesicki, in that order.</p><ul><li><p>&#128081; <strong>Jacoby Brissett:</strong> A borderline must-start, having finished as a top-12 QB in 9 of his last 10 games and now facing a Bengals defense allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to QBs.</p></li><li><p>&#128640; <strong>Tyler Shough:</strong> The best streaming QB option this week, ranked as QB11/12. The Saints had a +17% pass rate over expectation last week, a trend likely to continue against the stout Titans run defense.</p></li><li><p>&#128165; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> Has a huge ceiling in a potential shootout against the 49ers (52.5 over/under). The 49ers have generated a league-low 27% pressure rate over the last 8 weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#128201; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> A risky start, projecting as QB18/19 against a Texans defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate (45%).</p></li><li><p>&#9995; <strong>Jaxson Dart:</strong> Volume is a major concern; the Giants have a league-low -11% pass rate under expectation over their last 3 games, and Dart has just 15 carries in that span.</p></li><li><p>&#128142; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Considered a top play (ranked RB6) against the Giants, who have been the league&#8217;s worst run defense and have allowed 6.0 yards per carry over the last five weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#128168; <strong>De&#8217;Von Achane:</strong> Remains a must-start in a great matchup vs. the Buccaneers, who have given up the 5th-most yards per carry over the last 8 weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#128170; <strong>Kenny Gainwell:</strong> Called &#8220;probably the best RB2 on this slate,&#8221; having seen 6+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128200; <strong>Michael Carter:</strong> A strong play based on role, handling 67% of snaps and 64% of carries in the last two weeks, now facing a Bengals defense allowing 5.1 YPC over the last eight weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#10024; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> Volume has been amazing, with a 26%+ target share in 5 of his last 6 games. Quinn Ewers&#8217; 79% catchable throw rate is actually higher than Tua&#8217;s (76%).</p></li><li><p>&#128052; <strong>Colts WRs:</strong> <strong>Michael Pittman Jr.</strong> and <strong>Alec Pierce</strong> are strong low-end WR2s against the Jaguars, who allow the 3rd-most yards per game to outside receivers.</p></li><li><p>&#128274; <strong>TE Must-Starts:</strong> With Brock Bowers out for the season, only <strong>Trey McBride</strong> and <strong>Harold Fannin Jr.</strong> are considered must-start tight ends.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Dalton Schultz:</strong> A top TE play (ranked TE6/TE7), he averages 2.0 yards per route run vs. zone coverage and faces a Chargers defense that rarely plays man.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Hunter Henry:</strong> The #1 TE streamer for Week 17. He has 6+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games and faces a Jets defense allowing the 6th-most yards per game to TEs over the last five weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#127922; <strong>Taysom Hill:</strong> A high-risk, high-reward streamer after seeing a team-high 12 carries on 43% of snaps last week. The floor is low, but the touchdown upside is significant.</p></li><li><p>&#128716; <strong>Mike Gesicki:</strong> A viable streamer in a great matchup. The Cardinals have allowed the 6th-most yards per game to TEs, and Gesicki&#8217;s route participation has hit season highs (75% and 67%) in the last two weeks.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Happy Hour</h2><p><em>Week 17 Love/Hate: Ashton Jeanty, Chris Olave, Brock Purdy + Christmas Day standouts</em></p><p><a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F2IbxKLRyvAuJ9qgF9nM1QT%3Fsi%3D094dc00b56444532">Spotify</a> // <a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcasts.apple.com%2Fus%2Fpodcast%2Ffantasy-football-happy-hour-with-matthew-berry%2Fid1640280106">Apple Podcasts</a></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Ashton Jeanty and Chase Brown are elite, top-5 RB plays for Week 17. Jeanty faces a Giants defense allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs, while Brown gets a Cardinals defense giving up 186 scrimmage yards/game to RBs.</p><ul><li><p>&#127939; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> Ranked as a top-5 RB play for the week against the Giants, who have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points and 5.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs.</p></li><li><p>&#128200; <strong>Ashton Jeanty:</strong> When he sees at least 18 touches in a game this season, he averages over 20 fantasy points per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128293; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> He has been a top-5 fantasy RB since Joe Burrow&#8217;s return, averaging over 21 points per game.</p></li><li><p>&#9876;&#65039; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> Faces a Cardinals defense that has surrendered 186 scrimmage yards per game to RBs over their last six games.</p></li><li><p>&#127947;&#65039; <strong>Chase Brown:</strong> He is averaging 18 touches per game since Joe Burrow returned from injury.</p></li><li><p>&#9992;&#65039; <strong>Rhamondre Stevenson:</strong> Running backs who have seen at least 15 touches against the Jets are averaging over 20 fantasy points per game.</p></li><li><p>&#129413; <strong>Kenneth Gainwell:</strong> He is the RB8 in fantasy since Week 11 and has finished as a top-12 RB in 5 of his last 6 games.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Kenneth Gainwell:</strong> Has earned a 21% target share over the last six weeks.</p></li><li><p>&#129312; <strong>Tony Pollard:</strong> He is averaging 20 touches per game over the last three weeks and faces a Saints defense that has allowed 120+ rushing yards in four of their past five games.</p></li><li><p>&#128078; <strong>Rico Dowdle:</strong> Over the last five weeks, he is the RB29 in fantasy points per game and ranks 41st in fantasy points per touch among RBs.</p></li><li><p>&#9884;&#65039; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> In Tyler Shough&#8217;s seven starts, Olave has a 28% target share and averages over 17 fantasy points per game.</p></li><li><p>&#127386; <strong>Chris Olave:</strong> Gets a great matchup against the Titans, who allow the highest catch rate and have given up 15+ fantasy points to a WR in seven straight games.</p></li><li><p>&#127753; <strong>Jauan Jennings:</strong> Has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games and is averaging 15 fantasy points per game since Brock Purdy&#8217;s return.</p></li><li><p>&#128059; <strong>Jauan Jennings:</strong> The Bears have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers since Week 9.</p></li><li><p>&#128170; <strong>Harold Fannin Jr.:</strong> Since Shedeur Sanders took over at QB, Fannin leads all tight ends with a 31% target share.</p></li><li><p>&#128296; <strong>Hunter Henry:</strong> Has performed as the 6th-best tight end in fantasy football since Week 12.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> In games where he sees at least six targets, he averages over 18 fantasy points per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128039; <strong>Jaylen Waddle:</strong> In Quinn Ewers&#8217; first start, Waddle commanded a 31% target share.</p></li><li><p>&#127796; <strong>Jakobi Meyers:</strong> Has a 25% target share over the last five games and faces a Colts defense that has given up the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs since Week 11.</p></li><li><p>&#128201; <strong>Lad McConkey:</strong> He has been held under 45 receiving yards in five consecutive games.</p></li><li><p>&#128005; <strong>Joe Burrow:</strong> Since returning in Week 13, he is averaging 38 pass attempts per game.</p></li><li><p>&#128640; <strong>Brock Purdy:</strong> Ranks as the #1 QB in the NFL on a per-play basis in terms of EPA per play.</p></li><li><p>&#128047; <strong>Trevor Lawrence:</strong> Since Week 5, he has been the second-best quarterback in fantasy on a points-per-game basis.</p></li><li><p>&#128679; <strong>Justin Herbert:</strong> Faces a tough matchup against the Texans, who are a top-5 team in QB pressures, while the Chargers allow pressure at the 3rd-highest rate.</p></li><li><p>&#128165; <strong>Jacory Croskey-Merritt:</strong> A boom-or-bust player who has two games with 22+ fantasy points but has been held under 9 fantasy points in 11 of his other 14 games.</p></li><li><p>&#129409; <strong>Jahmyr Gibbs:</strong> His production has cratered recently, with single-digit fantasy points in two of the past three games and an average of just 2.2 yards per carry since Week 15.</p></li><li><p>&#128017; <strong>CeeDee Lamb:</strong> Has posted back-to-back games with under 12 fantasy points during the fantasy playoffs.</p></li><li><p>&#127939;&#8205;&#9794;&#65039; <strong>Jalen Hurts:</strong> The Bills give up the 3rd-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, setting up a potential ceiling game on the ground for Hurts.</p></li><li><p>&#128680; <strong>Tyrone Tracy:</strong> Has received 18 or more touches in each of his past four healthy games and faces a Raiders defense that is a bottom-three unit against the run over the last month.</p></li><li><p>&#128176; <strong>Prop Bet:</strong> The podcast analysts like <strong>Jaylen Waddle</strong> over 56.5 receiving yards against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Fantasy Football Today</h2><p><em>Start or Sit (NFC): Michael Wilson, Bears RBs and WRs, Josh Jacobs and More Tough Calls (12/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)</em></p><p><a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F2fEvGGxwXqSM8xuSNgxjFR%3Fsi%3Da5c2b946b62740bd">Spotify</a> // <a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcasts.apple.com%2Fin%2Fpodcast%2Ffantasy-football-today%2Fid261735167">Apple Podcasts</a></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Michael Wilson is a major boom/bust play. He has 4 TDs in his last 3 games but has never had a good fantasy game when Marvin Harrison Jr. is active. Michael Carter has a prime bounce-back spot against a Bengals defense allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards to RBs.</p><ul><li><p>&#128201; <strong>Jared Goff:</strong> Scored just 4.1 fantasy points last week, his worst game since Week 7 of 2022.</p></li><li><p>&#128565; <strong>Vikings Offense:</strong> Won their last game despite accumulating only 3 net passing yards (51 passing yards minus 48 sack yards).</p></li><li><p>&#127939; <strong>Ravens Run Defense:</strong> A running back has scored 15 or more PPR fantasy points in 9 of the last 10 games against Baltimore.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>DJ Moore:</strong> Expected to see a 5-7 target range even if Luther Burden plays. If Burden is active, both he and Moore are ranked in the WR 20-30 range.</p></li><li><p>&#9992;&#65039; <strong>Wan&#8217;Dale Robinson:</strong> Averages an impressive 15.8 PPR points per game on the road this season.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Kenneth Walker:</strong> Ranked as the RB24 for the week by the analysts.</p></li><li><p>&#129300; <strong>Michael Wilson:</strong> A key point of conflict&#8212;he has not had a single good fantasy game this season in games where Marvin Harrison Jr. has played.</p></li><li><p>&#127937; <strong>Michael Wilson:</strong> Currently at 818 receiving yards, he is within striking distance of a 1,000-yard season milestone, which could influence his usage.</p></li><li><p>&#128274; <strong>Bengals Pass Defense:</strong> Cincinnati allows the 4th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.</p></li><li><p>&#128260; <strong>Michael Wilson:</strong> His slot rate with Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field is 58.3%, a significant jump from his usual role and where he is less productive.</p></li><li><p>&#127944; <strong>Cardinals Offense:</strong> Over the last 3 games, they have used 3-tight end sets at the highest rate in the NFL, reducing Michael Wilson&#8217;s route participation from 90%+ to around 80%.</p></li><li><p>&#128293; <strong>Michael Wilson:</strong> Despite usage concerns, he has been a touchdown machine recently, scoring 4 TDs in his last 3 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128078; <strong>Tyler Huntley:</strong> In games started by Huntley, a Ravens receiver has managed to score 15+ fantasy points only two times.</p></li><li><p>&#128144; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Boasts a 33.3% target share in games with Tyler Huntley. In their one full game together, Flowers had 7 catches for 63 yards on 9 targets.</p></li><li><p>&#128200; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> Has posted a strong target-per-route-run rate of 26.3% or higher in 4 of his last 5 games.</p></li><li><p>&#11014;&#65039; <strong>Christian Watson:</strong> Ranked as a WR29/30 if Malik Willis starts, but he would jump 5-6 spots in the rankings if Jordan Love plays.</p></li><li><p>&#128287; <strong>Caleb Williams:</strong> The consensus QB10 among the FFT analysts this week.</p></li><li><p>&#9889; <strong>Luther Burden:</strong> Before his injury, he flashed huge upside, scoring 14+ PPR points on just 39% of the offensive snaps.</p></li><li><p>&#128170; <strong>Jauan Jennings:</strong> Has been on an incredible touchdown streak, scoring in 6 of his last 7 games.</p></li><li><p>&#128679; <strong>Raiders Run Defense:</strong> Have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.</p></li><li><p>&#128168; <strong>Tre Tucker:</strong> During a three-game stretch without Brock Bowers, Tucker led the Raiders in receiving every week.</p></li><li><p>&#128176; <strong>Rico Dowdle:</strong> Is just 70 total yards away from earning a $1 million contract incentive.</p></li><li><p>&#127944; <strong>Blake Corum:</strong> Has scored 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games and seen 11+ carries in three straight contests.</p></li><li><p>&#128680; <strong>Rams RBs (Goal Line):</strong> Since Week 9, Blake Corum is tied for 2nd in the NFL with 8 carries from the 3-yard line or closer; Kyron Williams has 6.</p></li><li><p>&#129521; <strong>Falcons TE Defense:</strong> Have been a shutdown unit against tight ends, allowing only 2 touchdowns to the position all season.</p></li><li><p>&#10024; <strong>Kyle Pitts:</strong> Usage has skyrocketed near the end zone, with more red zone and end zone targets in his last 2 games than he had in the first 13 games combined.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>Harris Fantasy Football Podcast</h2><p><em>Undervalued Players For 2026 &amp; Championship Injury Decisions</em></p><p><a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F1qjopEHzfMRdvb2gg23bRM%3Fsi%3Dded04715186d4bdc">Spotify</a> // <a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcasts.apple.com%2Fus%2Fpodcast%2Fharris-fantasy-football-podcast%2Fid1023234452">Apple Podcasts</a></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> With Tyler Huntley starting, Zay Flowers drops to the WR21/22 range for championship week. For 2026 drafts, target RBs like Tony Pollard and Travis Etienne, who could provide RB2 value from the 4th-6th rounds due to recency bias from their teams&#8217; poor 2025 seasons.</p><ul><li><p>&#128201; <strong>Zay Flowers:</strong> Drops to WR21/22 in the ranks with Tyler Huntley starting for the Ravens. He is now out of the WR1 conversation for championship week.</p></li><li><p>&#129301; <strong>Lamar Jackson:</strong> Listed as doubtful for Saturday&#8217;s game.</p></li><li><p>&#127944; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> Has been removed from the Packers&#8217; injury report and is expected to play, though he is ceding some work to Emmanuel Wilson.</p></li><li><p>&#10067; <strong>Davante Adams:</strong> Has not practiced and is considered unlikely for Monday night, with some reports suggesting he might be &#8220;shadow shut down&#8221; until the playoffs.</p></li><li><p>&#128657; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> Has not practiced after suffering a hip-drop tackle injury and his status for Sunday night is uncertain.</p></li><li><p>&#128202; <strong>Thursday Night Stats:</strong> Notable poor performances included Jared Goff (5 turnovers), Jahmyr Gibbs (54 scoreless yards), and Justin Jefferson (4 catches, 30 yards).</p></li><li><p>&#129297; <strong>Kenneth Gainwell:</strong> A potential chalky DFS play at $5,600 on DraftKings.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>&#128142; <strong>Trey McBride:</strong> Mentioned as a potentially very chalky DFS TE pick at $7,500 against the Bengals, a defense that funnels targets to tight ends.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>&#128184; <strong>DFS Value Play:</strong> Taysom Hill is a high-upside, low-cost TE option at just $2,700.</p></li><li><p>&#127919; <strong>Garrett Wilson:</strong> Projected as an undervalued player for 2026, potentially available in the mid-4th round (WR20 range) as managers may have fatigue from the Jets&#8217; poor offense.</p></li><li><p>&#9881;&#65039; <strong>Tony Pollard:</strong> A 2026 value target who could be drafted as an RB2 in the 6th round after a down year with the Titans.</p></li><li><p>&#127939; <strong>Travis Etienne:</strong> Considered a top value for 2026, projected to be available in the 4th or 5th round despite playing like a top-15 RB in the second half of 2025.</p></li><li><p>&#128015; <strong>Blake Corum:</strong> The top &#8220;handcuff plus&#8221; for 2026, he could provide standalone value as the Rams&#8217; 1B but will likely be available in Round 8 or later.</p></li><li><p>&#9992;&#65039; <strong>Ricky Pearsall:</strong> A 2026 bounce-back candidate who could provide great value. He&#8217;s projected to be drafted in the WR29-33 range due to his 2025 injuries.</p></li><li><p>&#128200; <strong>Alec Pierce:</strong> Believed to be the true #1 WR for the Colts over Michael Pittman Jr. and could be a value in the 7th or 8th round of 2026 drafts.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h2>The Audible</h2><p><em>Week 17 Starts with a Thud; Lamar Doubtful, Packers QBs, &amp; More [Footballguys Daily Update 12/26]</em></p><p><a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fshow%2F0wf5ZBFRJnMSwIEgzhO2MQ%3Fsi%3D4ffee555cb9f418a">Spotify</a> // <a href="/__u/www.google.com/url?sa=E&amp;q=https%3A%2F%2Fpodcasts.apple.com%2Fus%2Fpodcast%2Fthe-audible%2Fid178083008">Apple Podcasts</a></p><p><strong>TLDR:</strong> Lamar Jackson is doubtful for Week 17 and Baltimore&#8217;s offense averages just 16.2 PPG without him (compared to 27.7 PPG with him). Monitor inactives and have backup plans ready for championship weekend.</p><ul><li><p>&#129301; <strong>Lamar Jackson:</strong> The Ravens QB is listed as doubtful for Week 17 after not practicing all week with a back contusion.</p></li><li><p>&#128201; <strong>Baltimore Ravens:</strong> The offense&#8217;s scoring average drops from 27.7 points per game with Jackson to 16.2 points per game without him.</p></li><li><p>&#129300; <strong>Green Bay Packers QBs:</strong> Both Jordan Love (concussion) and Malik Willis (shoulder) are listed as questionable, leaving the starting QB role uncertain.</p></li><li><p>&#128077; <strong>Josh Jacobs:</strong> The Raiders RB is not on the final injury report for Week 17 and can be considered an RB2 with upside.</p></li><li><p>&#9889; <strong>Omarion Hampton:</strong> The rookie RB could see heavier usage and is in the RB2 range if teammate Kimani Vidal (questionable, neck) is out.</p></li><li><p>&#128099; <strong>Josh Allen:</strong> The Bills QB is dealing with a foot injury and has been limited in practice estimations, though he is expected to play.</p></li><li><p>&#129463; <strong>A.J. Brown:</strong> The Eagles WR expects to play despite having his wisdom teeth removed earlier in the week.</p></li><li><p>&#129461; <strong>George Kittle:</strong> The 49ers TE has yet to practice this week due to a low to mid-ankle sprain, putting his Week 17 status in jeopardy.</p></li><li><p>&#128059; <strong>Bears WRs:</strong> Rome Odunze (foot fracture) is unlikely to play, while Luther Burden III (ankle) is expected to return.</p></li><li><p>&#128165; <strong>Patriots RBs:</strong> If rookie TreVeyon Henderson clears concussion protocol, both he and Rhamondre Stevenson are considered playable assets against the Jets&#8217; league-worst run defense.</p></li><li><p>&#129462; <strong>Marvin Harrison Jr.:</strong> The Cardinals WR continues to be limited by a heel injury, and it&#8217;s uncertain if the team will push him to play in a meaningless game.</p></li><li><p>&#129335; <strong>Drake London:</strong> After catching just 3 of 8 targets for 27 yards in his Week 16 return, the Falcons WR is viewed as a low-end WR1 for this week&#8217;s matchup.</p></li><li><p>&#128015; <strong>Rams Starters:</strong> Despite the potential to be locked out of the NFC West title race on Sunday, key starters like Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua are still expected to play for MVP/OPOY awards and playoff seeding.</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>