FH Volume Trader

Weekly ES Market Plan Aug/Sep 31/04 - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning & New Swing Desk Analysis

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 10:01:30 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

Even profitable traders experience challenging periods.. sometimes days, weeks, or even months, where they struggle to align with the market. This is completely normal. The key difference between long-term successful traders and unprofitable ones is composure and the ability to readjust to changing market conditions.

If you’re looking strictly for trade signals, this is not the right place for you. My focus is on education, guidance, and helping you build the mindset and skills to become self-sufficient in the markets.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

^{Market Profile Traders Dream Place}^{The auction desk is now live..}

^{WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS}

Last week closed red, or black on my chart theme… The question this week for bulls was whether they could regain control above the weekly level, a balance low in the multi-day balance at 7724, after breaking out of the multi-month balance whose high sits at 7648, the old all-time high….

Monday set the tone early with a failed breakdown of the previous week’s low, which we got long on, taking profit at 7730. It’s worth noting that when a failed breakdown occurs on a weekly low or multi-day balance low, and price manages a daily close back above the level that broke down, the odds of a backtest toward the half-back of that range are overwhelming…. These setups don’t come around often, but when they do, size up and make sure the risk management is right… it’s worth it.

After the failed breakdown, a range formed, trapping short sellers at the lows and buyers at the top end. Post-NVIDIA earnings, we gapped up…. Now Placing a composite profile over the range, price gapped up and tested the VAH of that range composite profile.. confirming the auction was imbalanced and likely headed to its next liquidity pool, the monthly POC around 7770. Buyers breached that level and tapped into the daily excess gap made on August 17th….

^{Imbalance Break of Multi Day Range Example}

Our in-house proprietary sell zone hit perfectly, also a call wall, with a large lot seller filled there and dealers hedging… That sent price crashing all the way down to session lows, back into the weekly level at 7724. They put in a look-below-and-fail there and closed the day slightly above it, a positive development after the prior week’s bearish price action. Short-term price action can look one way, but ES is and always has been a bullish ticker, in a constant uptrend since inception. I recently did some quant work while managing this week’s trade and I won’t share the findings, but I’ll say this.. don’t short this market, it’s pointless, it will skew your win rate, guaranteed.. I promise you..

^{In House Extension Zones Example}

The question heading into next week is whether bulls can establish strength above 7724, the first time i have had the weekly level 2 weeks running… Support was lost, the backtest is now complete, and bulls managed a daily close above it, if only just, which underlines how much this level matters.

^{TPO Chart W/ Weekly Level}

Acceptance above targets 7765, 7795, 7850. Acceptance below targets 7695, 7665, 7640.

_{Tool I am using is by far the easiest and most convenient way to analyse GEX/DEX with price action on ES Futures for me personally. Get 10% off with Code}_FLUFFYHEAD_{- With that being said, try the 7 day free trial and see if you like it or not..}

^{ES Monthly OPEX Profile}

^{NQ Monthly OPEX Profile}

_{Monthly EXP Gamma Structure}

Heading into next week the gamma picture lines up almost perfectly with the price structure…. Both ES expiries, Monday’s 2DTE and the September 18th read, have cTrans sitting basically right on top of current price at 7720, dealers are pinned exactly at the money on both the near and medium dated books at the same time.. HVL is stacked identically underneath both expiries too, 7700 on the 0DTE and 7700 on the 20DTE, which puts the whole dealer floor directly beneath our 7724 weekly level… That’s good confluence for the 7724 Level…

Both ES reads are Positive Gamma, above HVL and beyond cTrans, net gamma +23.25M on the 0DTE and +126.01M on the 20DTE, which fits the backtest complete thesis, dealers buying dips and selling rips reinforces exactly the kind of orderly, mean reverting tape you’d want to see after a level like 7724 gets reclaimed…. C1 sits at 7760 on the 0DTE and 7810 on the 20DTE, so there’s room above before we’re fighting real call resistance, and pTrans and P1 merged down at 7660 on the near dated book gives a defined support if this pulls back further before it goes, this is also the VAL for this week so double confluence with this particular level…

NQ isn’t telling the same story though, and this is the piece worth sitting with over the weekend. Both NQ expiries are only Positive Transition, above HVL but not yet through cTrans, they haven’t done what ES has done. More importantly the September 18th NQ read actually flipped to outright negative gamma into Friday’s close, -19.36M, down over 330M on the day. That’s the medium dated book going the wrong way while ES’s medium dated book is comfortably positive. C1 and cTrans on NQ’s 0DTE are merged onto the same strike at 29640, HVL and pTrans merged at 29435, so the near dated structure is at least tight and defined, but the fact the longer dated read dipped negative is a divergence from what ES is showing right now…

The way I’ll use this next week, ES’s own structure supports the idea that the backtest of 7724 is done and dealers are set up to reinforce a hold above it, that lines up with everything we already worked through on price action. But I’m not treating that as confirmed market wide until NQ’s medium dated gamma gets back on the right side of zero. If NQ follows ES back into positive territory early next week that’s the confirmation this move actually has legs. If it stays negative while ES holds up, that’s a divergence worth respecting rather than ignoring, and it would be the first real crack in an otherwise clean picture…

_{COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | August 25th, 2026}

_{For those unfamiliar with the Commitments of Traders report, it is a weekly snapshot published by the CFTC showing us exactly how the three main groups of market participants are positioned in the futures market. Think of it as a window into what the big money is actually doing, not what they are saying on Twitter lol. The three groups are Non-Commercials, who are your large speculators and hedge funds, Commercials, who are the institutional hedgers, and Non-Reportable positions, which are the smaller retail traders.}

_{Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.}

_{Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..}

Non-Commercials (Large Specs)

Long: 256,586 (8.6% of OI), down 27,182 on the week
Short: 319,998 (10.7% of OI), up 35,823 on the week
Spreading: 639,621 (21.3% of OI), down 66,552 on the week

What this tells us: Large specs flipped hard net short this week. Net position moved from -407 (essentially flat) on August 18 to -63,412 now, a swing of roughly 63,000 contracts. They cut longs and added shorts simultaneously, a clean directional shift rather than just position trimming.

Commercials

Long: 1,786,060 (59.6% of OI), down 14,469 on the week
Short: 1,851,826 (61.8% of OI), down 67,056 on the week

What this tells us: Commercials moved the other way, covering shorts far faster than they cut longs. Net position improved from -118,353 to -65,766, a reduction of about 52,587 contracts of net short exposure, their least net-short reading in several weeks.

Total Reportable Positions

Long: 2,682,268 (89.5% of OI), down 108,203 on the week
Short: 2,811,445 (93.8% of OI), down 97,785 on the week

Non-Reportables (Retail)

Long: 315,328 (10.5% of OI), up 1,759 on the week
Short: 186,151 (6.2% of OI), down 8,659 on the week

What this tells us: Retail net-long grew again, from 118,759 to 129,177, up roughly 10,418 contracts. This is a fresh high for the net-long extreme this cycle, retail keeps adding longs even as large specs turn short.

Total open interest fell 106,444 on the week to 2,997,596, an even sharper decline than the prior week’s 50,343 drop. Two consecutive weeks of large open interest contraction now, positions are unwinding rather than rolling.

This in short.. is positioning divergence… Large specs went net short in size, commercials covered shorts aggressively, and retail pushed its net-long position to a fresh extreme, all in the same week that open interest contracted sharply for a second straight week. Large specs and retail are now leaning opposite directions, with commercials easing off their short hedge. That combination, sharp OI contraction plus specs turning short while retail keeps adding long, is usually a sign of a shakeout rather than settled positioning, worth watching whether next week’s report shows continuation or a reversion back toward the flatter reading from August 18….

_{The Auction Desk — Swing Desk & Macro Read}

^{The swing bias score works from a base of 50, which represents a fully neutral, two-way market, and then adds or subtracts points from four separate inputs…. The macro backdrop contributes 30% of its own distance from neutral, so if the macro read is leaning bearish, only part of that lean carries through to the swing score, keeping macro as context rather than the main driver... The heaviest single input is last week's completed profile, worth up to plus or minus 20 points, built from the week type, whether the close finished above or below the prior week's value, and whether excess was left at either end of the range. The month and monthly VWAP location contributes up to plus or minus 23 points, based on where price sits within the month's range and how many standard deviations it's trading from the volume weighted average price... There's also a COT positioning read worth up to plus or minus 12 points, built from how stretched large speculators are in ES, VIX, bonds, and the Dollar Index relative to their three year history, and this one only kicks in at genuine extremes, sitting at zero everywhere in the middle. All four contributions get added to the neutral 50 to produce the final score, so the number is never just a feeling, it's a direct sum of exactly what's shown underneath it…}

^{Macro Score Above}

^{Macro & Profile Score Above}

_{Swing Bias — 59/100, Mild Long}

Tilted higher but not one-way. The framework wants you buying into prior-day support references and last week’s value low, not chasing breakouts..

What’s driving the composite:

Last week’s profile: +9.0 — trend-up week, one-timeframe buyers, value migrating higher. Closed inside prior week’s value though, so no control was established either way on that test. Excess on both ends, a completed, well-defined range to trade against...
Macro: +1.3 — barely a lift. Macro composite reads 54/100..
Month/VWAP: -1.5 — price is on the soft side of monthly value, between VWAP and -1σ, and below the month POC (7775). That’s the main thing capping the bias from running higher than 59…

Price at 7722.50 is sitting almost exactly on monthly VWAP (7732), which the model flags as “the least edge” point on the board, it hasn’t picked a direction relative to fair value yet even though the weekly trend is constructive…

Invalidation, in order: 7732 (monthly VWAP) → 7661 (last week’s value low) → 7543 (month low). Losing all three is what kills the long bias… 7661 is the weekly VAL, so this week’s key level sits right on top of that whole invalidation..

_{Putting it against the week’s price structure}

The swing model’s own invalidation floor (7732 → 7661 → 7543) overlaps directly with the 7724 weekly level…. The model is long-leaning for the same reason the tape is, trend-up week, but it’s withholding conviction until price shows which side of monthly VWAP it wants to live on. Combined with ES gamma sitting positive on both expiries while NQ’s medium-dated read dipped negative, the picture across all three frameworks, price structure, options positioning, and this swing model, is the same… constructively long, but not yet confirmed, with the confirmation levels converging in the same 7724-7732 zone rather than scattered across different references…

Educational Content

FH Volume Trader Youtube Channel

Weekly ES Market Plan 24/28 August - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning & New Swing Desk Analysis

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:06:05 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

^{Market Profile Traders Dream Place}^{The auction desk is now live..}

^{WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS}

_{MONDAY, AUGUST 18}

Mondays overnight inventory was net long going into Monday’s open, so a counter auction was expected.. Bulls didn’t manage to tap the overnight high, which was the first sign of weakness, before tapping the overnight low and flushing to the downside. It’s important to recognise that only 25% of the time over historical backtests across 5 years does the overnight high and low tap in the same session, so this gave the bearish lean. Bulls tapped the previous week’s VAH and previous day’s AVWAP around 7810ish and flushed straight into the daily excess gap at 7794 to 7796ish..

We consolidated here for a long period, forming a b shaped profile in the process showing weak longs got flushed. It’s important to pay attention to how the rest of the day plays out in this scenario, as it’s very easy to get caught shorting the low when on the surface it looks bearish, but under the surface there are specific market mechanics happening. A long liquidation is not new money selling, it’s just the market got too long and a liquidation can occur on these instances. Bears managed to absorb a lot of buyers at the daily reference and price flushed to the downside, finding support around the previous week’s vPOC at 7770ish. On this flush, single prints formed, and when merging the 6 day balance into one big balance on the TPO, 7786 sits as the VAH of that balance, with the excess low from H period’s excess at 7780…

_{TUESDAY, AUGUST 19}

With Mondays weak auction, the market came down to test the other side of balance after Monday’s failure to build value above 7805. The overnight session flushed to the downside, finding support at the balance low of the multi-day balance at 7724. At the open, the volume and tape looked promising but quickly died out... Which as been the current theme this week..

With the VIX below 16, price was reflecting this.. There was simply no volatility in the markets.. 7724 did not hold as support in Tuesdays session which now became resistance….

_{WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20}

Today’s overnight session left a poor low on a failed breakdown of the previous day’s low, which was the beginning of my trade idea shared in the discord… I mentioned this low is worth noting going forward.. ES rallied pre-market all the way from 7700 to the 7760s, where the market found resistance at the weekly and monthly VWAP references... RTH opened up and counter auctioned the overnight net long inventory.. However, the counter auction was short lived as Price tapped into the previous day’s AVWAP and a short covering rally was underway…

RTH took out the overnight high but they put in a 4 hour closure below the weekly and monthly VWAPs, where sellers began to press… FOMC had a flush to the downside. This week has seen choppy price action all around, but it’s worth noting the tape was starting to look more active than it had done in the past 7 to 10 days, where volume was really dry…

_{THURSDAY, AUGUST 21}

ES continued to show weakness as the session sold off in the afternoon again, after bulls failed to reclaim the weekly VAL and monthly VAL at 7713/7714. On the sell-off, bears left single prints made in H period, which also coincided with the RTH VWAP closing price at 7690…

This confirms the theme running through the week, a market unable to build sustained value above its key references, with each rally attempt getting absorbed and faded rather than accepted. The recurring failure to hold above the weekly and monthly VAL levels across multiple sessions has been the clearest signal that sellers retain control of the broader structure, even as the tape itself has started showing more genuine participation than the dry conditions seen earlier in the week…

_{FRIDAY, AUGUST 22}

Marking AVWAP onto the ‘‘Leopold Low’’ from the prior FOMC, on the daily chart we can see we found support at this reference on Thursday and Fridays overnight opened and consolidated here for a while before buyers stepped in and moved the market to the upside… RTH opened with a counter auction to overnights net long inventory during A period.. finding support at Thursdays single prints made in J period before a rally commenced in C period.. this rally was short lived as buyers got exhausted and absorbed during E period failing to take out Thursdays high.. closing the day as an ‘Inside’’ day…

This is a weekly profile with 4 hour periods to give me a higher timeframe view of the market and the longer term timeframes distribution.. Analysing this profile we have a 4 hour rally high at 7765 which is good location for a look above and fail, given the monthly POC sits just above at 7775.. Analysing the single prints on this leg down, we can see the biggest sell delta sits here at 7782.. this level will be worth noting going forward..

This is a merged profile from the multi month balance including this breakout with daily bars to see how well buyers are doing at building value above the multi month balance… As long as the YTD VAH holds at 7648 then the market remains imbalanced on the higher timeframe, with the view off 7724 getting reclaimed this should put bulls in a good spot to make new all time highs to target the Monthly OPEX exp call wall at 7920… However, if bulls fail to hold the YTD VAH as support or failing to reclaim it quickly if lost.. Bears have the upper hands a possible traverse of the entire multi month range is possible on the conditions that they lose 7600…

This is a daily, typical TPO chart with 30 minute periods.. one thing to pay attention to intraday is the poor low made in Fridays session.. and the excess bears made in the rally rejection.. A constructive development for bulls would be to hold the current monthly VAL as support.. bears must break this level and imbalance lower to have any real motion..

I myself have a neutral to bearish lean going into next week with an open minded view of the markets as I always do.. Bulls have got to convince me above the Previous weeks AVWAP around 7724 for me to consider long set ups and bears have got to convince me here also.. this will be my weekly level going into next week.. 7724 the Balance low of the multi day breakout balance..

Acceptance above targets 7765, 7782 & 7820

Acceptance below targets 7687, 7648, 7600

_{Monthly EXP Gamma Structure}

Net gamma on this September 18 expiry is -239.20M, down a further 32.38M on the day, and net delta is +312.38B, down a heavy 207.94B. The regime is Negative Transition, below HVL, above pTrans, consistent with the intraday read from earlier in the week…

C1, 7920, Major Call Wall, a full 2.99% above current price, the furthest overhead reference seen in these reads. This is a long way up and reflects how far out this expiry sits…

cTrans, 7765, Call Transition, +0.97% above price..

HVL, 7735, the gamma flip, +0.58% above price. Price sitting below HVL confirms the negative transition read directly…

pTrans, 7580, Put Transition, -1.43% below price. This lines up closely with the pT level marked on the chart itself…

P1, 7515, the major put wall, -2.28% below price, the furthest downside magnet in this set of reads…

The strike ladder shows a dense cluster of red (negative/put-heavy) bars stacking from roughly 7615 down through 7565, with P2, Ab3, and nPV all converging around 7615, and P5 and P6 marking additional put concentration at 7590 and 7645. That’s a meaningful wall of put positioning below current price, more layered than the cleaner single-level walls seen in the shorter-dated reads…

Chain activity shows puts fading again, OI at 0.63 against volume at 0.72, both leaning toward more call activity than the open interest base would suggest. C/P sits at -53%…..

This fits the theme running through the whole week. ES has repeatedly failed to reclaim the weekly and monthly VAL levels, and on this longer-dated profile, HVL at 7735 sits noticeably above current price at 7690, a wider gap than in the shorter-dated reads from earlier in the week…. That means the path back to positive gamma on this expiry requires a larger move than the nearer-dated ones did, consistent with a market that’s been unable to build sustained value higher….

The 27-day view also shows why the put side has been so heavy in the shorter reads, this longer-dated positioning at 7515 to 7615 is the underlying structural support for those repeated pTrans and P1 clusters showing up in the daily reads all week. If ES does eventually roll through the 7658/7645, this deeper profile suggests the next real structural floor sits meaningfully lower, around the 7580 to 7515 area, rather than anything immediately below….

_{COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | August 11th, 2026}

For those unfamiliar with the Commitments of Traders report, it is a weekly snapshot published by the CFTC showing us exactly how the three main groups of market participants are positioned in the futures market. Think of it as a window into what the big money is actually doing, not what they are saying on Twitter lol. The three groups are Non-Commercials, who are your large speculators and hedge funds, Commercials, who are the institutional hedgers, and Non-Reportable positions, which are the smaller retail traders.

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 283,769 contracts, 9.1% of open interest
Short, 284,176 contracts, 9.2% of open interest
Spreading, 706,173 contracts, 22.8% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 407 contracts, essentially flat, down sharply from net long 25,427 last week. They cut 20,537 longs while only trimming 1,935 shorts, a swing of roughly 18,600 contracts back to the short side. That outright net long from last week, the first of the entire run, lasted exactly one week. The large speculators gave it straight back.

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,800,529 contracts, 58.0% of open interest
Short, 1,918,882 contracts, 61.8% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 118,353 contracts, down slightly from 149,504 last week, a trim of around 31,150 contracts. They cut 21,345 longs and 52,496 shorts, covering shorts more aggressively than they sold longs. After making their sharpest move to net short in the entire run last week, they eased back off it this week, though they remain deeply net short overall.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 313,570 contracts, 10.1% of open interest
Short, 194,810 contracts, 6.3% of open interest

What this tells us. Net long by approximately 118,760 contracts, down slightly from 124,077 last week. Retail cut 6,526 longs and 1,209 shorts, a small net trim of around 5,300 contracts. Barely moved, still sitting at its most net long levels of the entire stretch.

Total open interest fell by 50,343 contracts to 3,104,040, the largest weekly decline since the quarterly expiry unwind. Participation contracted meaningfully this week.

The key takeaway is that last week’s unusually clean alignment has already partially unwound. The large speculators’ first ever outright net long reading didn’t hold, they flipped back to flat within a week, which tells you that positioning was tactical rather than a conviction shift. The commercials, meanwhile, eased their net short after making their most aggressive move of the run, which is the more interesting development…. Two straight weeks of them pressing hard, then a pullback, often marks a pause rather than a reversal, worth watching whether they resume pressing or continue to ease….

Retail remains the one constant through all of this, barely moving and staying heavily net long throughout. With open interest contracting by over 50,000 contracts, this reads as a week of de-risking across the board rather than fresh conviction in either direction, which fits the choppy, low-volume price action described through the week, a market where nobody was in a hurry to commit before some clarity showed up. The concentration numbers eased slightly too, top four net short 19.2% versus 6.5% long, top eight net short 28.5% versus 11.0%, still tilted short but marginally less extreme than the prior week’s widest print….

_{The Auction Desk — Swing Desk & Macro Read}

The swing bias score works from a base of 50, which represents a fully neutral, two-way market, and then adds or subtracts points from four separate inputs…. The macro backdrop contributes 30% of its own distance from neutral, so if the macro read is leaning bearish, only part of that lean carries through to the swing score, keeping macro as context rather than the main driver... The heaviest single input is last week's completed profile, worth up to plus or minus 20 points, built from the week type, whether the close finished above or below the prior week's value, and whether excess was left at either end of the range. The month and monthly VWAP location contributes up to plus or minus 23 points, based on where price sits within the month's range and how many standard deviations it's trading from the volume weighted average price... There's also a COT positioning read worth up to plus or minus 12 points, built from how stretched large speculators are in ES, VIX, bonds, and the Dollar Index relative to their three year history, and this one only kicks in at genuine extremes, sitting at zero everywhere in the middle. All four contributions get added to the neutral 50 to produce the final score, so the number is never just a feeling, it's a direct sum of exactly what's shown underneath it…

^{Macro Score Above}

^{Macro & Profile Score Above}

Two separate reads here, one structural (the swing desk), one macro (the sentiment composite), and they line up in the same direction…

Swing Bias: 27/100, Short Bias — Sell Strength

The swing desk score sits at 27 out of 100, firmly in short territory. The breakdown across three inputs:

Macro contributes -2.1 points off a 43/100 reading (more on that below). Last week’s profile is the heaviest weight by far, contributing -16.0 points. And month versus monthly VWAP contributes -5.0, with price trading at -0.47 standard deviations below the month’s VWAP…

Last week’s profile itself was a trend down week, closing below prior week value, with excess made at both ends. Week VAH sits at 7740, week POC at 7695, week VAL at 7682. That’s a week that resolved lower and left the market’s own auction pointing down…

On the monthly picture, month high is 7840, month low 7543, last price 7687. Monthly VWAP is 7739, with a 110 point one-sigma band. The read notes price is roughly in the middle of the month’s range at 48% up from the low, but trading below monthly VWAP between VWAP and -1 sigma. So even though price isn’t at an extreme within the month’s range, it’s on the wrong side of the volume weighted average for the month, and that skews the swing bias short…

The actionable instruction is explicit… lean short, sell into prior-day resistance references and last week’s value high, rather than chasing breaks lower. That’s a fade-strength playbook, not a momentum-short playbook…

What Invalidates the Short Bias

This is the important part… Acceptance above monthly VWAP at 7739, then last week’s value high at 7740, then the month high at 7840, is what kills the short thesis. Above that sequence, the instruction is to stand down.. Those three levels stacked within 100 points of each other, 7739 to 7840, form a clear ceiling that needs to be cleared and accepted above before the bearish lean should be abandoned…

Macro Composite: 43/100, Cautious, Leaning Bearish

The seven-factor macro board also leans negative, net -7.0 points off a neutral 50, landing at 43. Earnings is the standout positive factor at 80/100, contributing +4.5, described as the lone strong bull pillar, with roughly 25% growth even stripping out mega-cap distortions on a record beat rate…

Everything else drags. Fed policy scores 35/100 and is the single heaviest negative weight at -3.8. Geopolitics scores 25/100 at -2.5, liquidity 35/100 at -2.3, inflation 35/100 at -2.3, and growth and labor 45/100 at -0.8. Position and sentiment sits neutral at 50/0.0…

The qualitative notes explain the mechanism, long-end yields near 5.3% are doing more damage to multiples day to day than the policy rate itself, and the Hormuz blockade plus fresh tariffs are keeping an inflation premium embedded, which is exactly what pins the Fed hawkish and caps any rally attempt….

This aligns closely with everything observed through the week. ES has repeatedly failed to reclaim its weekly and monthly VAL levels, and both the swing desk and macro composite explain why the structural odds favoured that failure, a trend-down prior week, price below monthly VWAP, and a macro backdrop where only earnings is pulling in the bull direction against four separate drags…

The invalidation levels given here, 7740, and 7840, are also worth cross-referencing against the gamma structure from the September 18 profile, where HVL sat at 7735, just below the auction desk’s 7739 monthly VWAP figure. Two independent frameworks converging on the same 7735 to 7740 zone as the line that needs to be reclaimed for the bearish case to lose its footing is a meaningful confluence….

Educational Content

FH Volume Trader Youtube Channel

Weekly ES Market Plan 17/21 August - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning

Sat, 15 Aug 2026 14:58:47 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

^{Market Profile Traders Dream Place}^{The auction desk is now live..}

^{WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS}

As expected, some rotational activity on ES this week.. This current balance is being dominated by day timeframe traders, and being nimble in this sort of environment is the best edge when volatility is low...

ES did however, break the poor high this week at the all time high in the 7820s. Price opened on a true gap higher and immediately rallied all the way into the high 7830s, where ES found some responsive selling..

If I am being totally honest I cannot write the best weekly observations when the entire week has been such a low volume week, I can’t lie guys I am mentally drained this week and cannot talk about such a bad week in terms of volume, as after all its in my name.. Volume trader, I can’t speak about it because it was non existent this week.. Hopefully we get better price action and volume this week, with that being said I will get straight into my weekly plan, COT Report and Dealer Report…

_{NQ, MONTHLY EXP GAMMA PROFILE DAILY BARS W/ YTD VWAP W/ BANDS}

_{FRIDAY PROFILE W/ WEEKLY PROFILE}

Friday produced a long liquidation b shaped profile, and closed the week right at the weekly VAH..

_{Multi Month Balance Merged TPO’s W/ Breakout - YTD Volume Profile}

_{ES MONTHLY EXP PROFILE W/ DAILY BARS W/ YTD VWAP W/ BANDS}

I will be closely monitoring the weekly VWAP closing price 7789..

Upside Targets: 7820, 7855 & 7870

Downside Targets: 7761, 7725 & 7000

Tool I am using is by far the easiest and most convenient way to analyse GEX/DEX with price action on ES Futures for me personally. Get 10% off with Code FLUFFYHEAD - With that being said, try the 7 day free trial and see if you like it or not..

_{Monthly EXP Gamma Structure}

C1, 7820, Major Call Wall, just 0.19% above current price. This is the nearest overhead reference and lines up with the ATH poor high that finally broke on Thursday. With price sitting this close, tomorrow’s action around 7820 will say a lot about whether that breakout holds.

cTrans, 7770, Call Transition, 0.45% below price. This is the floor for the favourable regime, the level that needs to hold for gamma to keep working in the bulls favour…

HVL, 7740, the gamma flip, 0.83% below price. Lose this and the whole structure flips to negative gamma, back to the amplified, two-sided sessions we were dealing with through most of July.

pTrans, 7715, Put Transition, 1.15% below price. This lines up closely with the balance low in this overall new balance area at 7725 reference.

P1, 7705, the major put wall, 1.28% below price, the key downside magnet if this rolls over.

On the strike ladder, C2 at 7870 and C6 with nCOI up at 7920 mark the next references well above current price, while C4 at 7845 sits closer overhead. Below, C3 with Ab3 cluster at 7795, right under the current print, and C5 with Ab2 sit at 7770 directly on cTrans, reinforcing that level as more than just the options transition point…

The Adaptive Expected Move over 6 days gives a Smart Range of 7713 to 7891, roughly minus 1.18% to plus 1.11% from here. IVR sits at 25 with IVx 12.6 and falling, volatility staying compressed. The call/put skew is at -42%, the widest we’ve seen in these reads, with OI at 0.86 against volume at 0.93.

This lines up closely with the COT report from the same week. Positive gamma is intact with cTrans at 7770 as the near floor and HVL at 7740 as the level that would actually change the picture, and both sit right where the profile’s pullback references have been forming. The market is coiled between the 7820 call wall above, which is also the pATH poor high, and the 7770 to 7740 zone below, which is where the last two genuine pullbacks found support.

Given the COT divergence, large specs and retail both freshly net long while commercials pressed their widest net short of the run, this gamma structure is the mechanism that would decide who’s right. If price holds above cTrans and pushes through 7820, the specs and retail read plays out and the hedgers get forced to cover into strength. If 7740 gives way, the REGIME CHANGES and the setup shifts toward validating the commercials’ defensive positioning. Worth watching closely into next week…

_{COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | August 11th, 2026}

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 304,306 contracts, 9.6% of open interest
Short, 278,879 contracts, 8.8% of open interest
Spreading, 708,108 contracts, 22.4% of open interest

What this tells us.. Net long by approximately 25,427 contracts, a genuine flip from net short 6,948 last week. They added 14,687 longs and covered 17,688 shorts, a swing of over 32,000 contracts to the long side. This is the first time in this entire stretch they have gone outright net long, after three weeks of sitting essentially flat. The large speculators have finally committed, and they committed bullish.

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,821,874 contracts, 57.8% of open interest
Short, 1,971,378 contracts, 62.5% of open interest

What this tells us.. Net short by approximately 149,504 contracts, up sharply from 96,904 last week, a swing of around 52,600 contracts further to the short side. This breaks a two-week trend of the hedgers easing off, and it is the widest net short reading in this entire run. They cut 16,340 longs while adding 35,254 shorts, a clear and decisive move into more defensive positioning.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 320,095 contracts, 10.1% of open interest
Short, 196,018 contracts, 6.2% of open interest

What this tells us… Net long by approximately 124,077 contracts, up from 103,852 last week. Retail added 2,999 longs and covered 17,225 shorts, a swing of over 20,000 contracts further to the long side. Retail is chasing this breakout hard, now at its most net long of the entire stretch.

Total open interest fell by 15,999 contracts to 3,154,383, a modest pullback after the prior week’s huge expansion. Nothing dramatic, participation cooled slightly rather than reversing…

The key takeaway is that this is the most divergent report yet, and it is a genuinely two-sided one. The large speculators finally flipped outright net long for the first time in the entire run, and retail piled in even harder to reach its most net long reading of the stretch. Both of those groups are now leaning bullish together. Sat against that, the commercials made their sharpest move to net short in this entire dataset, reversing two straight weeks of easing off and landing at the widest net short print we have seen.

That is worth sitting with. Every previous week this year the pattern was commercials and the largest traders positioned one way while retail sat on the other side, and price generally respected what the informed money was doing. This week, retail and the large speculators are aligned bullish together, while the hedgers are seeing this different. The concentration numbers back this up, top four net short 18.2% against 6.4% long, top eight net short 27.6% against 11.2%, both little changed and still firmly tilted short even as everyone else piled into longs…

This sets up an unusually clean test. If the breakout is genuine and the long term buyers really have arrived, as the profile reads have been suggesting since early August, the large specs and retail are on the right side and the commercials will eventually be forced to cover into further strength. If the rally is getting overextended and due a real pullback rather than another shallow rebalance like the 7798 pullback low made in Thursdays session, the commercials pressing net short this hard right as retail reaches peak enthusiasm is exactly the setup that has preceded reversals before. Either way, this is the report to watch unwind over the next few weeks, because one side of this divergence is about to be wrong in a big way…

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO BE TRADING ABOVE VAH & BELOW THE VAL? LET ME EXPLAIN BELOW IN A QUICK PARAGRAPH THEIR ARE MANY ELEMENTS TO THIS BUT THIS IS JUST A BASIC BREIF PARAGRAPH SO YOU UNDERSTAND A LITTLE BIT MORE MY THESIS…

Knowing whether we are trading above or below the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) is crucial because it tells you how the market is behaving in relation to where the bulk of trading activity and perceived “fair value” occurred previously. When price moves above the VAH, it indicates that buyers are testing higher prices to see if the market will accept value there. If price holds above that area, it suggests buyers are in control and new value may be developing higher. If it fails to hold and falls back inside the value area, it shows rejection of higher prices and often signals a rotation back toward the Point of Control (POC). The same logic applies on the downside…. trading below VAL shows sellers pushing for lower value, and whether the market accepts or rejects that move tells you if it’s a continuation of weakness or just a temporary probe. In short, VAH and VAL serve as critical reference points for identifying acceptance or rejection, gauging who’s in control of the auction, and anticipating whether price will trend or revert back to balance.

So this can give us our bias, Under VAL we want to look for selling activity or a mean reversion back into balance… If we trade above the VAH we want to look for buying activity or a mean reversion back within balance.. This is why knowing the weekly and daily BH’s & BL’s is mandatory to my analysis..

These 2 Patterns are going to be your best friend for profitability, however to be able to determine whats happening in the live markets takes years of screen time. Study these patterns as the market only does 3 things, Sideways.. we stay away from this YOU WILL GET CHOPPED OUT YOUR POSITION. Failure/Trap at Balance Extremes.. This is our A+ Set up. Continuation/Price Discovery.. This happens around 23/35% of the time, this would be deemed out B+ set up.

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Weekly ES Market Plan 10/14 August - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning

Sun, 09 Aug 2026 12:20:25 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

^{Market Profile Traders Dream Place}^{The auction desk is now live..}

The Prior Week Analysis

Since May, the S&P 500 has traded within a multi-month balance, with sellers active in the 600s and buyers stepping in around the 300s… a substantial 300 pt range. Approximately 2 to 3 weeks ago, I stated I was a buyer at 7325. Why?

The level carried multiple confluences. Since March of this year, ES has been on a parabolic run, and by anchoring a VWAP to that low on the daily chart, I can identify the average “true fair value” from that point... These swing high and swing low anchored VWAPs represent institutional locations where strong reactions can be expected… In addition, the monthly put wall sat at this level.. another strong confluence, as dealers/ market makers must hedge there to balance their books, given that a market maker’s role is to remain delta neutral while providing liquidity.

^{YTD LOW AVWAP [PINK]}

We then had the unfortunate event of a young hedge fund manager being targeted. I refer to this as the “Leopold liquidation” The low of this will remain a key reference going forward…. Without going into excessive detail, he was in a vulnerable position and was forced to liquidate his entire portfolio… triggering a significant sell off on FOMC day…

I will be anchoring a VWAP from this event and using it for future trade ideas…

ES has finally broken out of its multi-month balance range, with the balance high sitting at 7649. Price is now trading in the 7700/7800s, a remarkable rally on the back of the Leopold liquidation. Marking the low at 7325, ES has rallied hard on strong demand, which tells us this is genuine buying rather than a short squeeze…

From analysing Monday and Tuesday’s profiles, it is fair to conclude that longer-term timeframes have entered the market, and 8000 no longer seems far-fetched. We are balls deep in positive gamma, so the optimal environment here is to buy dips as they arise, I would like to share a playbook for these environments below… Buying shallow pullbacks is exactly what I did this week. That said, my trading activity was limited given how swiftly the market moved before balancing out within a three-day range…

Wednesday’s overnight session opened and rallied, printing new all-time highs in the 7800s, with the RTH session opening up and taking out that overnight high. Price based in the 7800s for roughly an hour before a counter auction got underway, leaving a weak high at 7820…. a reference I will be using going forward, a weak all-time high with no excess…

On Thursday, ES began to slowly drift lower on light volume towards its next liquidity zone at the previous day’s AVWAP, around 7760. Price consolidated for the entire session between 7755 and 7775, and given the volume transacted in this area over the prior two days, it became a significant zone of interest. Value has been built here, making it the reference the market will keep returning to, with any moves away likely to revert back if done on weakness…

ES is now pulling back following the substantial breakout, though notably on low volume. The question is whether buyers can push back towards all-time highs… and the lack of conviction behind this pullback suggests sellers are not the ones driving it…

ES is beginning to base, which is precisely what is expected after a large upside move, and the two-way auction is now underway… This is normal and shows acceptance at these higher prices.. Rather than rejecting the breakout, the market is doing the healthy thing… building value at these levels, which is necessary for any continuation…

8025 - This will be a strong level, stacked with multiple confluences from an options sentiment perspective. Weirdly, this level is the highest put wall on the monthly (unusual for it to be higher than spot in positive gamma), the highest combined net GEX level (which I term “Absolute GEX”), the highest negative delta, and monthly max pain. A strong level that may serve as a reactionary zone. I have 8075 marked all year as a location where I would look to initiate a short position for a swing trade… Discord members will know I have been discussing this level since January.

7825 - Confluences here just above the all-time high, the highest call wall on the monthly, “Absolute GEX 2,” and net call volume. This zone may act as a reactionary area going into next week. Should price clear and hold above it, the most likely destination becomes 8025…

_{Fridays Profile Analysis}

Fridays profile reflects a balance day with a D shape profile with a thin tail below.. the best way to navigate these kind of profiles is to wait for the extremes to get tested.. failed moves above and below offer a great trade opportunity.. the high being 7787 and the low being 7743/4..

A subtle nuance in this profile structure is sellers left a poor high, whilst buyers left a buying tail.. meaning that the buyside may not be done just yet..

_{Multi Month Profile w/ 1D Periods Analysis}

On the initial rally that occurred on Monday and Tuesday, there is no structure below apart from single prints to work with.. which leaves me to believe if we gain acceptance below 7725 early in the week we could test the old ATH at 7649.. on the weekly we have build a distribution in the range off 7784 and 7725.. these 2 levels are going to be of interest going into the new week..

I will be closely monitoring the weekly VWAP closing price and the lower end of this week’s distribution at 7725, where we also have an options confluence “Absolute GEX 3.”

- Upside targets: 7761, 7787, 7825

- Downside targets: 7700, 7650, 7631

_{Monthly EXP Gamma Structure}

P1, 8025, sitting 3.18% above current price. Worth noting this is above the market rather than below, which is unusual and reflects how far price has extended on this breakout.

C1, 7825, Major Call Wall, just 0.61% above price. This is the nearest overhead reference…. On the strike ladder the Ab2 and nCV levels also cluster right here at 7825, giving this a stack of confluence…

cTrans, 7735, Call Transition, 0.55% below price. This is the level that keeps us in the favourable regime…

HVL and pTrans, 7575, sitting 2.60% below. This is the gamma flip and the line in the sand for the whole structure…

On the strike ladder there are a few other clusters worth marking. C5 sits up at 7875 as the next overhead reference beyond the call wall. C3 at 7800 and C2 with CV at 7775 are both right on top of current price, which explains the consolidation we have seen around here. Below, C6, Ab3 and PV all cluster around 7720, then nPV down at 7675…

Net gamma is +456.86M, though it dropped 53.73M on the day, and net delta is +219.54B, down 207.31B. Those single day declines are worth watching. Positive gamma is intact but it is thinning rather than building…

The Adaptive Expected Move over 12 days gives a Smart Range of roughly 7610 to 7936, so minus 2.14% and plus 2.05% from here. That frames the realistic boundaries for this expiry cycle. IVR is at 27 with IVx 12.9 and falling, so volatility remains compressed, which is consistent with the positive gamma read. The call/put skew at -38% and OI at 0.81 against volume at 0.77 shows puts stable on the chain, no defensive rush…

What I will say is, The structure is constructive... We are comfortably in positive gamma with cTrans at 7735 as the near-term floor for the regime and HVL at 7575 as the level that would change how price moves.. The immediate resistance is the 7825 call wall, which given the cluster of references sitting there is likely to cap the first attempt higher.. Between 7735 and 7825 is where this is likely to spend its time, with the 7775 to 7800 area already showing as the heaviest concentration and matching where value has been building..

Essentially, this remains a buy-the-dip environment while cTrans holds, with the caveat that net gamma and delta both declined on the day. If that continues and price starts pressing 7735, the strength thins out quickly. Above 7825 there is room toward 7875 and then the expected move ceiling near 7936…

_{COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | August 4th, 2026}

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 289,619 contracts, 9.1% of open interest
Short, 296,567 contracts, 9.4% of open interest
Spreading, 724,448 contracts, 22.9% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 6,948 contracts, up slightly from 1,974 last week. They added 23,117 longs and 28,093 shorts, so they built on both sides rather than picking a direction. The headline number here is spreading, which exploded by 123,713 contracts to 724,448, by far the largest single move in this category. That is options-related positioning being layered on in size. The directional book barely moved, they are still sitting essentially flat for a third straight week.

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,839,220 contracts, 58.0% of open interest
Short, 1,936,124 contracts, 61.1% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 96,904 contracts, up slightly from 103,190 last week, meaning they trimmed their net short by around 6,300 contracts. They added 153,960 longs against 147,674 shorts, buying marginally more than they sold for a second consecutive week. Those are enormous gross numbers, but the net effect is small. The important point is direction: after two weeks of pressing the short side hard back in mid-July, they have now spent two weeks easing off it.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 317,096 contracts, 10.0% of open interest
Short, 213,244 contracts, 6.7% of open interest

What this tells us. Net long by approximately 103,852 contracts, down slightly from 105,164 last week. Retail added 14,915 longs and 16,226 shorts, building on both sides but staying essentially flat on net. They remain firmly net long and have held that posture through the entire move.

Total open interest exploded higher by 315,705 contracts to 3,170,383, an increase of roughly 11%. This is a massive expansion in participation and the standout number in the whole report. Money did not just rotate, new money came into this market in size. That is exactly what you want to see behind a breakout, it confirms the move is being supported by fresh participation rather than existing positions simply being shuffled.

The key takeaway is that this report validates the breakout. Open interest expanding by over 315,000 contracts alongside price breaking out of a multi-month balance is the textbook combination for a genuine move rather than a squeeze. It matches what the profiles were showing, strong demand at higher prices and long term buyers entering the market. When new money arrives at new highs rather than fading them, that is acceptance.

Just as important is what the commercials stopped doing. The setup that preceded the late-July sell-off was two consecutive weeks of hedgers pressing net short with retail long against them. That has now fully unwound, with two straight weeks of them easing back. They are still net short, as they structurally always are, but they are no longer leaning into it, and that removes the overhead pressure that capped the previous range.

The large speculators remain the frustrating piece. Three weeks now of sitting essentially flat, refusing to commit in either direction while the market broke out beneath them. The enormous spreading increase suggests they are expressing views through options structures rather than outright directional futures, which fits the positive gamma environment. What it means practically is that there is still a large pool of capital that has not yet chased this move, and that is potential fuel if they are forced to come in.

The concentration data eased slightly, top four net short 17.4% against net long 6.7%, and top eight net short 27.0% against 11.8%. Still tilted short, but the least extreme reading in several weeks. Combined with everything else, this reads as a market where the bearish positioning pressure has genuinely lifted, participation is expanding, and the breakout has the backing it needs. The one thing that would concern me is how crowded retail remains on the long side, but with new money flowing in and the hedgers standing aside, that is a problem for later rather than now.

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

Educational Content

FH Volume Trader Youtube Channel

Weekly ES Market Plan 03/07 August - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning

Sat, 01 Aug 2026 07:37:47 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Before we kick things of talking about my absolute most favourite thing to talk about.. Financial Markets.. I want to announce that Market Profile Traders Dream Place The auction desk is now live..

The Auction Desk is a Market Profile trading journal built around one disciplined system… identify the prior day’s reference, read which side price opens, wait for the look-and-fail, and enter on weakness… with a minimum 2R target on every single trade. Unlike generic spreadsheets that only record what you did, this journal understands how you trade and tells you why it’s working or why it isn’t. It won’t even let you log a trade below 2R, because the maths is the whole point… at a 2R reward your breakeven win rate is just 33.3%, meaning you can be wrong more than six times out of ten and still finish ahead, but only if you actually hold to target. So the app tracks that relentlessly, with a live 2R Edge Meter showing exactly where your win rate sits against the breakeven line, a Discipline Score that measures how often you followed the setup and held the trade, and automated coaching that reads your own notes to surface the patterns quietly costing you money…. chasing, FOMO entries, moved stops, and early exits..

Whether you’re new to Market Profile or a seasoned auction trader, the platform meets you where you are. Newer traders get the full system built in… a searchable Playbook covering profile shapes, reference families, the mandatory entry sequence, and spike rules…. so you’re learning correct structure while you journal, not guessing. More experienced traders get a serious analytics engine…. profit factor, expectancy, a performance calendar that heat-maps your net R month by month, and a Daily Audit that takes your read of the close and ranks tomorrow’s strongest setups for you, scored and explained. Every trade can carry a chart screenshot for real review, your whole journal imports and exports by CSV, and your data stays private on your own device. It’s the accountability partner that turns a pile of trades into a genuine edge…. for the cost of a couple of coffees a month, it keeps you honest, sharpens your discipline, and helps you compound the behaviour that actually makes money.

Lets talk markets…

MONDAY

After a strong open on Sunday, the overnight session also put in a micro rally. Overnight inventory was net long, so a counter auction was highly likely going into RTH, and that is exactly what we saw. Bears sliced through every major support, flushing a massive 100 points to the downside, with all VWAP anchors and references cut through in the process… this was a pretty aggressive sell..

That left us sitting at a critical inflection point at the YTD VWAP upper standard deviation band +1. Bulls only managed a partial close above, closing fairly weak.. This set a cautious tone for the rest of the week…

TUESDAY

ES put in a failed breakdown off its multi-day VAL at around 7425 and rallied all the way into the previous week’s AVWAP, where sellers were yet again accumulating positions all through the rally… it’s important to note, when I’m looking at the DOM I’m not specifically looking for big orders, I am looking for the MBO to repeat the same orders continuously higher and higher… for example 37 lots reloaded 100s of times across different price levels… When you have extensive DOM experience you will be able to feel buyers getting exhausted… and that’s what happened buyers got exhausted and price began to fade. It appears the session was more short covering /mechanical than new money buying, as new money buying would have put a daily closure above the previous week’s AVWAP…

An important development came from NQ, something I have been keeping my eye on like a hawk these past couple of weeks due to NQ being the weaker index and is mostly to blame for ES’s weakness… It had put multiple daily closures below its YTD VWAP upper standard deviation, and also a daily closure below its YTD low AVWAP. That was a really bearish sentiment heading into FOMC, particularly with ES yet to put a daily closure below its own YTD upper standard deviation. With NQ leading and looking that much weaker, the risk was always that NQ drags ES down with it….

Counter Auction Flush Brief

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WEDNESDAY

A chaotic Asian session took out the previous day’s high and flushed to the downside. RTH then opened and flushed almost the entire session, slicing through supports until the selling finally dried up in the 7370s. From there a monster rally developed after reclaiming the IBL, with price running up into FOMC.

FOMC produced a strong reaction, pushing into the previous week’s VWAP anchor where price found resistance, leaving a poor high in the process at 7483. Price then flushed again all the way down to 7320s, with the session closing below its YTD upper standard deviation band. A strong bearish close below, and exactly the development NQ had been signalling the day before… it’s these sort of nuances that separates an average thinking trader into a poker thinking chess player.. always think one step ahead..

Nq Drag Fomc Brief

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THURSDAY

After Wednesday’s bearish flush, which was quite aggressive, the sell under the hood seemed to come from a weak place given that the session left a poor high which was questionable, and we reference these kinds of things every single day for exactly this reason. Overnight then opened up and instantly rallied, closing literally at its high.

RTH opened up and rallied, flushed the IBL leaving a poor low in the process, however they rallied all the way back into the 7490s and closed out near there. From Wednesday’s low in the 7320s to Thursday’s high in the 7490s, that is a substantial two-day swing. We remained in negative gamma going into Friday, which is why we are experiencing these strong trend moves intraday, dealers buying rallies and selling flushes which increases overall flow, so once price starts going it keeps going.

Fomc Avwap Brief

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FRIDAY

Fridays session opened up on a true gap up, with the overnight continuing the strength. An important reference I have been identifying as great trade locations is the FOMC AVWAP… RTH opened and immediately had a counter auction… where too? The FOMC AVWAP, this marked the low of the session and price never looked back.. we continued to squeeze sellers (apart from me who got a really good scalp to retest the weekly VAH) shown in image below… With ES closing the week out back at its Monday highs…

Negative Gamma Brief

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Leaving this week looking like an enormous shake out which was likely needed for the next leg higher… how can you not be a bull long term when this market continues to just constantly screw bears?

Typical TPO Chart w/ Weekly & Monthly Volume Profile

Multi Month Balance Merge TPO Daily Bars w/ YTD Volume Profile

One bullish development that happened this week was the YTD POC migrated higher, showing that price is trading efficiently at these higher prices following the start of March’s low….

In terms of weekly levels going into next week, I am going to be monitoring the Weekly VWAP Closing Price at 7448. Acceptance above 7448, would seek targets off 7493, 7535 & 7580..

Acceptance below 7448 would seek targets off Thursdays poor low at 7399, 7363 & 7325.

Monthly Gamma Exposure Profile W/ Daily Bars & YTD VWAP/BANDS

As we mentioned in the previous newsletter in regards to the 7325 level and the YTD LOW AVWAP. This played out perfectly this week. As we can see post FOMC they was seeking liquidity, the biggest liquidity pools in this market is the YTD Low AVWAP, this marks the true fair value from the start of this historical uptrend.

7325 still remains the “Put Major” on the monthly…

7510 HVL, a push and daily closure above this puts us in positive gamma, a change of regime to the one we had this week. So that’s one to watch out for..

7580 the biggest “Call Wall” on the profile here this is immediate overhead resistance and it’s somewhere where price could potentially stall..

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | July 28, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 266,501 contracts, 9.3% of open interest
Short, 268,475 contracts, 9.4% of open interest
Spreading, 600,735 contracts, 21.0% of open interest

What this tells us…. Net short by approximately 1,974 contracts, essentially unchanged from 2,633 last week. They added 2,912 longs and 2,253 shorts, which is as close to doing nothing as this group gets. Last week they made their big move, covering nearly 20,000 shorts to lift themselves from a clear net short all the way to flat. This week they simply held that flat position through the sell-off rather than reversing it…. They are sitting neutral and waiting..

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,685,260 contracts, 59.0% of open interest
Short, 1,788,450 contracts, 62.6% of open interest

What this tells us…. Net short by approximately 103,190 contracts, down from 113,863 last week, a swing of around 10,600 contracts back toward the long side. After two consecutive weeks of getting more defensive, the hedgers eased off. They added 54,152 longs against 43,479 shorts, buying more than they sold for the first time in three weeks. They remain heavily net short as they always are, but the direction of travel has changed, and after a week where price actually sold off, seeing them buy into it is worth noting….

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 302,182 contracts, 10.6% of open interest
Short, 197,018 contracts, 6.9% of open interest

What this tells us…. Net long by approximately 105,164 contracts, down from 116,495 last week, a trim of around 11,300 contracts. Retail cut 3,149 longs and added 8,183 shorts, easing off the long side for a second straight week. They got some of the sell-off, which explains the reduction, but they remain firmly net long overall and have not capitulated….

Total open interest rose 69,170 contracts to 2,854,678, recovering most of last week’s unwind. Fresh participation came into the market during the sell-off rather than positions simply being closed out, which is a healthier picture than a straight liquidation…

The key takeaway is that the picture softened rather than escalated. The setup that preceded the sell-off, commercials pressing net short for two straight weeks with retail heavily long on the other side, has started to unwind. The hedgers eased their net short by 10,600 contracts and were net buyers of over 54,000 longs, retail trimmed some length, and open interest expanded rather than contracted. That combination usually points to the down move being a range extension rather than the start of something bigger…

The large speculators sitting still is the piece I would watch most closely. They walked into the sell-off with fresh length and no short protection, which likely accelerated the move, and the natural expectation was that they would either get flushed out or flip back short. They did neither. Holding a flat book through a down week suggests they are not convinced the downside has further to run, but they are not stepping up to buy it either.

The concentration numbers still lean short, top four net short 18.6% against net long 6.6%, and top eight net short 29.7% against 11.6%. That tilt has barely moved and remains the one genuinely cautious signal in the report. The biggest players have not shifted their posture even as the commercials eased off, so while the immediate pressure looks lighter, the concentrated money is not positioned for a strong move higher from here either….

Putting it together, this reads as a market that let some air out and is now waiting for a reason to pick a direction. That fits nicely with what price has been doing, aggressive two-sided sessions inside negative gamma with neither side able to hold an edge. The commercials easing off removes some downside pressure, but with the largest traders still tilted short and the large specs refusing to commit, there is nothing in this data that argues for a decisive resolution just yet…

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

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Auction Desk Launch! - Weekly ES Market Plan 27/31 July - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning

Sat, 25 Jul 2026 08:54:37 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Before we kick things of talking about my absolute most favourite thing to talk about.. Financial Markets.. I want to announce that Market Profile Traders Dream Place The auction desk is now live..

My Trading Results Since Mid June…

Lets talk markets…

The ES closed the week down roughly 0.6% at 7444, a second straight red week… Iran is still the dominant macro input, with Brent pushing to $102 on Thursday before falling back toward $95 on reports of possible US and Iran peace talks, and every dollar Brent adds takes Fed relief further off the table. But the bigger equity driver was AI spending. NQ lost more than 2% Thursday, GOOG fell 7.1%, Tesla sank 15%, and Intel dropped nearly 8% despite beating expectations….

In My Opinion, Underneath it is a rotation rather than broad risk off, with the Dow closing Friday near record territory while the Nasdaq fell. Next week is going to be an interesting week, with the Fed Wednesday, GDP and PCE the day after, and Microsoft, Meta and Apple all reporting inside the same week... I am watching whether oil holds under $100 and whether the tech selling stays contained to the AI spenders.…

So get into how the week went shall we..

Monday’s Session

Overnight inventory was net long heading into the session, and whenever inventory is skewed heavily one way it usually gets corrected. That put the odds of a counter auction inside the first 60 minutes high probability. The real question was what kind of selling was behind it. New money coming in short?, or existing longs being liquidated?. There is no way to answer that at the open, because early in a move both look identical.

Price traded down into Friday’s VAL and found responsive buyers there. They were weak, but they were present, and that presence was the first real clue. New money selling does not get absorbed at a prior value area low, it slices straight through without hesitation. The fact that price got any kind of response at that level told us this was more likely a liquidation break than a fresh directional push from sellers, though it was still too early to bet on it.

As the session developed, the shape resolved into a clean b formation. A long tail down from the open, value building at the lows, and every upside rotation getting sold into rather than extending. This is the footprint of long liquidation, positions being worked out of methodically rather than aggressive new sellers stepping in and driving price with conviction. The profile was telling the story that the tape alone could not confirm at the open. This sort of setup comes a few hours after the open.

The level that mattered was a piece of confluence sitting just 2.5 handles wide. The B period high came in at 7527.50, the structural reference, marked and then left alone until price came back to it. Directly above at 7530 sat the 0DTE session HVL, making it a high quality area to fade strength.

The execution was simple but disciplined. Mark the B period high and do nothing until price comes to it. Then wait for the sweep. On the 5 minute chart there were multiple closes above the level, pushing up into 7530. The entry only came once buyers were trapped above the reference, with the stop sitting above the absorbed high and the target set at the session low.

A fair question is why not simply buy alongside the responsive buyers back at Friday’s VAL? The answer is the same problem we had at the open, there was still no way to know whether this was liquidation or genuine new money selling. The open had been aggressive, and aggression cuts both ways. Buying a weak response into an auction that has not resolved is exactly how you end up long inside a liquidation break. A weak response is a clue worth noting. It is not a signal worth trading.

Once the b shape was fully in place, K period brought the new money selling. M period then sold again and flushed price clean past the low of the b, extending the move lower, the day no longer had the b shape profile after this…

Example of Mondays Trade Idea.

Tuesday’s Session

Tuesday saw an imbalance and price discovery trend day. Price found support at Monday’s K period excess gap high and the weekly VWAP, before closing above the upper standard deviation bands, confirming bulls had control and won the auction.

Example of Tuesdays Rally using PD/W Vwap as Support..

Wednesday’s Session

Wednesday had a similar tone, with bulls taking out Tuesday’s high in B period. However, market participants caught themselves leaning too long on a low volume push that was not sustainable above the previous week’s AVWAP. That marked the high for the week.

Example of Previous Weeks AVWAP trapping buyers causing a gap down the following day..

Thursday’s Session

Thursday opened on a true gap down, with the market reacting poorly to the Google earnings. This caused a significant long liquidation overnight. A counter auction was underway at the open, price rallied strongly but bulls were caught offside at the previous month’s VWAP closing price at 7479. They looked above and failed, trapping late buyers in the process. This led to a b shaped profile on the day and another round of long liquidation. The key reference heading into Friday was the rally high at 7458 made during Thursday’s session.

Friday’s Session

Friday’s session opened and found resistance immediately at that reference. Bears, however, got themselves leaning too short and were trapped. A mechanical rally was underway… but again, bulls were caught offside at the weekly VWAP. On the MBO, shorts were accumulating inventory and averaging in. Eventually buyers ran out of steam and a large flush to the downside followed. I was able to capture this move.

Example of Thursdays Rally High & How Friday reacted w/ Weekly VWAP Resistance & Trade Idea & Execution

Monthly Profile… Daily Periods

Example of Daily Bars Over Multi Month Balance From May Composite.

We have been trading in a multi month balance area with sellers active at the 600s and buyers active in the 300s. We are currently at a significant inflection point.

For the first time in a while, price is now close to the YTD VAH, with value migrating higher as the value areas shift over time. The YTD POC still sits at 6880, reflecting just how dry volume has been these past couple of weeks.

If we merge the monthly profiles from May, the start of this multi month balance, we are close to both the multi month balance VAL and the YTD VAH. Two key confluences, and great locations for a swing trade.

Acceptance below this area puts the market at risk of reverting toward 7100 on weakness. When we look at the profile, volume at the lows is thin, meaning there was not much interest facilitating trade at lower prices. If volume starts to increase down here and we see acceptance below said references, that will not be good for bulls.

However, if bulls are able to step up here, the short inventory built over the past couple of weeks gives the market enough fuel to rally hard and potentially make new all time highs. It all depends on how price reacts at these references…

Weekly Profile… 4HR Periods

Example of Weekly Profile w/ 4 hour bars.

On the weekly profile, value was left higher and bulls never managed to revert back to it. It will be interesting heading into next week to see what bulls can make of it. The question is how much they have left in the tank, and whether there are willing participants to step up.

Monthly Dealer Profile SPX (ES Price Levels)

Example of Daily Bars w/ Monthly Gamma Profile & YTD VWAP W/ STD BANDS, ATH VWAP W/ STD BANDS & YTD LOW AVWAP.

7510 is where we have the Put transition level.. the put transition is just basically where we come OUT off negative gamma into a thin zone of gamma exposure, Call transition ABOVE is where the regime changes to positive gamma… anything in between the Call & Put Walls is referred to as a “Transition zone” - Back to the price.. 7510, 7510 is a strong level when we look at price action on the profile.. 7511 is Tuesdays buy tail base which started an impulse move up to the upside.. this is now currently resistance but would be nice to see how the market reactions here..

Above this we have the 7545 HVL level.. this level is in the middle of the “Transition Zone”.. it marks as a high volatility level “HVL”… Additional confluences with this level is the weekly upper standard deviation bands on the VWAP closed at the 7533s. So this zone, or a potential fake out of the 533s if of interest so long as 7565 doesn’t get traded into…

For downside level we have the best off all in my opinion.. I have been waiting months and months for this VWAP to get tested. It’s the yearly low AVWAP resting around 7320.. we have the monthly put wall off 7335 there also which makes this level one that has strong confluences, this marks the average price of everyone in the market from the low and start of a historical rally that we have just had.. probably won’t see one like it again, or at least for a good few years.

This is where I’d like to try a long for a swing trade to target the top end of the multi balance month range around the 600s..

In terms of weekly Levels.. The level I am watching this week is going to be 7410.. the YTD VAH, Acceptance above can keep this bullish trend going with targets of 7458, 7493 & 7510….

Acceptance below is not good for bulls, this reverts us back into the YTD Balance and continued weakness and can possibly see us revert back to fair value at 6880.. Targets would be, 7385, 7350 & 7320….

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | July 21, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 263,589 contracts, 9.5% of open interest
Short, 266,222 contracts, 9.6% of open interest
Spreading, 585,481 contracts, 21.0% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 2,633 contracts, down from 31,753 last week. This is the standout move in the report. They added 9,619 longs while covering 19,502 shorts, a swing of just over 29,000 contracts to the long side, taking this group from a clear net short lean all the way to essentially flat. After weeks of sitting still and waiting, the large speculators finally made a move, and it was to lift shorts...

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,631,108 contracts, 58.6% of open interest
Short, 1,744,971 contracts, 62.6% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 113,863 contracts, up from 92,734 last week, a swing of around 21,000 contracts further to the short side. The hedgers extended their defensive posture for a second week running, trimming 7,845 longs and adding 13,284 shorts. Last week they dumped longs aggressively, this week they leaned on the short side instead, but the direction is the same. Their net short is the largest it has been in this stretch.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 305,330 contracts, 10.8% of open interest
Short, 188,835 contracts, 6.8% of open interest

What this tells us. Net long by approximately 116,495 contracts, down slightly from 124,487 last week. Retail barely moved, cutting 377 longs and adding 7,614 shorts. After piling in aggressively last week they eased off very slightly, but remain heavily net long overall. No real change in conviction from the smaller trader.

Total open interest fell by 34,376 contracts to 2,785,508. After two flat weeks this is a modest unwind, nothing on the scale of the quarterly expiry, but participation came out of the market rather than building.

The commercials were the tell. Two consecutive weeks of getting more defensive, first dumping over 40,000 longs, then adding 13,284 shorts on top, taking their net short to the widest reading of this entire stretch. This is the group that hedges real exposure, and when they lean that hard across back to back weeks, it is rarely noise. Alongside them the largest traders held their tilt, net short 17.8% against net long 6.9% in the top 4, and net short 29.4% against 12.1% in the top eight.

On the other side of that trade sat retail, net long by roughly 116,000 contracts and barely trimming. That is the classic structure, the biggest and most informed participants leaning short while the smallest participants provide the length they are leaning against. It does not time anything, but it tells you which way the risk is skewed when a range finally resolves.

The one part that did not fit was the large speculators covering 19,502 shorts and adding 9,619 longs, lifting themselves from a clear net short all the way to flat. On the surface that looks like fuel coming out of the downside. In practice it meant they walked into the sell-off with fresh longs and no short protection, which likely accelerated the move once price started going. Covering shorts into a market the hedgers are selling is how you end up on the wrong side of a break.

This is also why the range broke lower rather than higher. All week we had been noting that buyers were not strong enough to break out and sellers were not strong enough to break down, and the positioning explained the stalemate. There was no fuel behind the bid, the short covering that powered the earlier recovery was long spent, and the only category adding meaningfully to the long side was the one usually caught at the extremes. Once the commercials pressed the short side for a second week, the balance tipped.

The thing to watch now is next week’s report. Specifically, whether the large specs got flushed out of that new inventory and flipped back short into the move, or whether they held it. If they held and the commercials ease off, the sell-off is likely a range extension rather than a regime change. If they flipped short while the hedgers stayed defensive, that is a very different picture heading into the following week.

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

Educational Content

FH Volume Trader Youtube Channel

How & When To Short ES/SPX W/ PlayBook.. Weekly ES Market Plan 20/24 July - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning

Sat, 18 Jul 2026 12:16:54 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Before we get started on this newsletter, I just want to say I design these newsletters to be objective, to plan to all scenarios, use all the data available to me to talk about the financial markets, this is all opinion. My opinion..

Before diving into the newsletter, let’s discuss some market profile logic – arguably my most powerful tool. I pair these patterns with options.. preferably 7/14DTE.. However, timing is crucial because profile patterns on futures can significantly impact your play and timing these on futures can be very difficult..

Having traded the ES for countless years and amassed tens of thousands of hours of screen time observing its movements, I’m confident I can offer aspiring profile traders some valuable insights..

The ES/SPX is fundamentally a long-biased instrument. It naturally trends upwards over time, supported by decades of consistent upward price action. This bias is a common pitfall for rookie traders, who often quietly deplete their accounts by fighting it.

Example Of ES/SPX Nature Since 1998.. Uptrending Asset..

Shorting ES is essentially swimming against the tide, so it’s not something to be done casually or frequently. You only short it when the market presents a specific, high-conviction signal that the buying beneath a rally isn’t genuine. This signal is the P-shaped profile that fails to maintain its value area at the low end.

A P-shaped profile is characterised by a thick top and a thin bottom, with a long tail extending upwards into a bulge of value near the top. It’s the footprint of a short-covering rally. Traders who were short-positioned are squeezed and forced to buy back their positions to minimise losses. This forced buying drives prices up rapidly and builds the value at the top.

On the surface, it appears to be a sign of strength, but it’s actually an old tactic. Short-covering involves buying to remove potential future buyers from the market. Every short that is covered becomes flat. The trader or hedge fund involved essentially loses any incentive to buy again and may even consider re-shorting at higher prices. The rally is essentially burning through a limited supply of fuel. In contrast, genuine new longs add to open interest and demonstrate real conviction that the price will continue to rise.

A P-shape forming on short covering is essentially burning its own fuel supply. This makes it appear as buy fatigue rather than strength. Furthermore, a rally occurring with thin volume amplifies the signal. Even the covering itself lacks conviction, suggesting the move is nearing completion.

Here’s where it becomes tradeable. After the P-shape forms, the value area low of that profile becomes a crucial reference point. When the price pulls back and tests this value area (VAL), one of two outcomes occurs.

If buyers step in and defend the VAL, the price holds, the lower distribution is bought, and this demonstrates fresh money willing to pay up. The short-covering fuel is replaced by genuine demand, making continuation viable and indicating this isn’t your short.

Conversely, if the VAL gives way, the price accepts below it and slices into the thin tail. There was never any new buying underneath; it was simply shorts who finished covering and had nothing left to support the market. With no responsive buyers and a thin single-print structure below, the price has nothing to rely on. Consequently, the range retraces back to the downside, making this your short.

Most ES shorts assume a bullish asset is about to stop being bullish. This one is different. You’re not predicting a top…. you’re analysing a specific structure indicating weak/fake buying, then waiting for the market to confirm this by failing the VAL. This provides a clean trading line, a clear invalidation where the VAL holds and you exit, and a logical target in the range below.

This combination of weak buying, a defined trigger, tight invalidation, and a real target makes it the one short worth taking on an instrument that otherwise wants to rise.

A real example: June 2nd.

We were trading at all-time highs and entered a P-shaped profile. This profile directly led to the long liquidation at the start of June. The tell was evident in the structure before the move. The rally to the highs was short-covering, the VAL failed to hold and the market rolled over into short-term weakness precisely as the playbook predicts. However, this doesn’t mean short every single P profile. As we saw this week, we had multiple P-shaped profiles. The more P’s, the better your short setup will be. This is why I prefer trading these profile shapes with options. You’re jumping into a high-quality setup with defined risk and no risk-off being wiped out of a position.

Now, let’s consider the mirror image: the b-shape VAH failure.

The same logic applies in reverse when the market is in a downtrend and it’s worth knowing to avoid shorting the wrong spot.

A b-shaped profile represents long liquidation, the sellers’ version of the P-shape. When a downtrend is in progress and a b-shape forms, the key to watch is the VAH. If sellers can’t hold the VAH of that b-shaped profile, it’s like the selling was old business, just as buying was in a P-shape. This failure usually leads to strong uptrends.

The clearest example was the June 11th b-shaped profile. It formed at the bottom of a strong downtrend from all-time highs, at the point of panic and calls for a bear market. Sellers couldn’t hold the VAH, liquidation was exhausted and we went on to make new all-time highs from there.

Last Week In Review

MONDAY

ES opened Sunday ETH on a gap lower, with negative headlines regarding the Iran conflict making a gap lower the expectation. ES dipped overnight and overnight inventory was net short. I stated in the Discord that if there was no counter auction within the first 60 minutes, I would deem this sell pressure as sell strength, and that is exactly what we got. ES failed to tap the overnight high, finding resistance at Friday’s 4-hour excess gap, and started to sell off on a low volume grind towards the previous week’s AVWAP.

A relief bounce was short lived, with price breaking the low that bounced and dipping into the monthly VWAP, where M period put in a small bounce at the close. Today formed a double distribution day, closing at the lower end of the two distributions.

TUESDAY

Tuesday’s overnight had a big sell-off into the 7530s, a strong support area that needed to be held, with the monthly HVL at 7540… Price found support after reclaiming 7540 and rallied, taking out yesterday’s high after the CPI print, showing that buyers were still willing to step in on the dip and defend that key monthly reference.

RTH price action was quite stale and not much to comment on, other than the fact they used the daily level at 7578 as support for the majority of the session, a level given Monday for Tuesdays Plan.

WEDNESDAY

ES opened on a true gap up, with price looking ready for a genuine breakout. However, NQ had other plans with a huge flush to the downside, which is what held ES back from rallying. Rather than pushing higher, ES flushed into yesterday’s VAL around 7572 before finding its floor and rallying into the afternoon.

Wednesday’s session left a poor high made in A and B period, which will remain a reference going forward.

THURSDAY

It’s hard to commentate on this kind of week. Same as last week, we’ve been stuck in a super tight range, with buyers not strong enough to break out and sellers not strong enough to break down. The market continues to rotate without either side managing to establish a real edge.

Buyers got trapped at the weekly VAH at 7610 and a low volume flush followed, taking out both yesterday’s and the day before’s lows, before M period spiked to the upside and reclaimed the IBL. It was a classic range rotation, one side probed, got rejected, and price snapped back inside..

FRIDAY

Example of Wednesdays P shaped profile and Thursday failing to close the session within its upper distribution confirming that the buying was weak in Wednesdays session..

Weakness followed into the overnight session with a liquidation to the downside on the back of failure to hold Wednesdays P shaped VAL in Thursdays Session .. ES flushed from the 600s into the 400’s. With overnight inventory net short, a counter auction was very probable.. I mentioned.. “ I am expecting a failed breakdown of the overnight low and a big counter auction “ .. That’s exactly what we got, but as the day progressed the rally looked more like short covering rather than new money buying. Price ultimately closed near the weekly low and ES looks mega weak going into the new week next week.

With Julys OPEX out the way the main focus for me in terms of options dealer positioning is to monitor August’s profile and positioning.. The regime we are currently in is negative gamma.. quite deep actually into negative gamma so I expect violent moves..

We have Call Major at 7640, HVL 7555 and Put Major at 7340, may I also add that the yearly low AVWAP is just below the Put Major level giving extra confluence to this level if it’s tested in the next few weeks.. If this level holds that’s somewhere I’d like to get long for a swing trade.

In terms of weekly levels.. 7585 is going to be the weekly level for next week.. the confluences for this level on the monthly dealer profile this is where the call transition level is resting.. the weekly VWAP closing price is just below being at 7570.

Acceptance below 7585 = short term weak and would have targets off 7532, 7470 & 7444

Acceptance above 7585 would signal strength and would have targets off 7610, 7645 & 7700

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | July 14, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 253,970 contracts, 9.0% of open interest
Short, 285,723 contracts, 10.1% of open interest
Spreading, 621,254 contracts, 22.0% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 31,753 contracts. Last week they were net short by 37,136 contracts, so they have trimmed roughly 5,383 contracts off that short lean, adding 5,651 longs while leaving shorts virtually untouched at plus 269. This puts them right back to where they sat two weeks ago at 31,807 net short. Another quiet week from the large speculators, no conviction in either direction, still sitting close to neutral and waiting. Spreading grew again by 23,775 contracts and remains the dominant category for this group, largely options related.

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,638,953 contracts, 58.1% of open interest
Short, 1,731,687 contracts, 61.4% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 92,734 contracts, up from 65,802 last week, a swing of nearly 27,000 contracts further to the short side. This is the standout number in the report. Last week they leaned gently long, adding 13,773 longs and cutting 9,128 shorts. This week they did the opposite and did it hard, dumping 40,638 longs while only trimming 13,707 shorts. That is not gentle repositioning, that is the hedgers getting defensive in size, and it is the most aggressive move by any category this week.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 305,707 contracts, 10.8% of open interest
Short, 181,220 contracts, 6.4% of open interest

What this tells us. Retail added 10,716 longs and covered 10,833 shorts, a swing of roughly 21,549 contracts to the long side. This is a complete reversal of last week, where they cut 8,984 longs and built 9,033 shorts. Their net long has jumped from 102,938 to 124,487 contracts. So retail spent last week getting cautious and then piled straight back in this week, and they are now more net long than they have been in this run.

Total open interest was flat again at 2,819,884 contracts, down just 496. Two weeks in a row of essentially no change in participation…

The key takeaway is the divergence, and it widened sharply this week. Commercials are dumping longs and extending net short, the largest traders on the board remain concentrated on the short side, and retail is buying into it aggressively. Large speculators are sat in the middle doing very little. When the hedgers get defensive in size while the smallest participants add over 21,000 contracts of net length in a single week, that is note worthy…

This also fits what price has been telling us.. We have been stuck in a tight range with buyers unable to break out and sellers unable to break down (until Friday), and the positioning explains why. There is no fuel behind the bid. The short covering that powered the earlier recovery is long spent, the large specs are not stepping in with fresh money, and the only category adding meaningfully to the long side is the one that is usually wrong at the extremes (retail). Until either commercials ease off the selling or the large speculators commit, the risk skews toward the downside resolving first….

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

Educational Content

FH Volume Trader Youtube Channel

Weekly ES Market Plan 13/17 July - Auction Analysis, COT Report & Options Positioning

Sat, 11 Jul 2026 14:35:17 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Monday’s session opened above the previous week’s 1st upper standard deviation, signalling that price may want to move into price discovery mode, and that is exactly what happened.. Price tapped the prior week’s POC and left an excess low, with the buy tail base being 7559, signalling the auction may be done at those prices for the time being. It was a bullish way to start the week, with buyers stepping in early and refusing to let price probe any lower.

From there the 7600 level came into focus, holding the highest open interest across all expiries. With the regime in positive gamma, a slow grind towards this area was the expectation, and that is precisely what played out. Price tapped 7600, halted, and closed near it. A poor low was made during D and I period, along with I period’s pullback low at 7575, a level that aligns with the previous week’s VAH at 7578 and the sessions VWAP close, giving it strong confluence and making it the key reference going into the next session...

Tuesdays profile structure represented a b shaped profile, often associated with long liquidation. Price failed to hold the 7575 level and flushed to the downside, all the way into the previous week’s AVWAP at around 7535, a level given in the weekly analysis over the weekend. We had good confluence here, as the previous week’s VWAP sat alongside the monthly HVL level, and the tape died off in this region with volume tapering off.

With the auction done at these prices on the day, a relief rally followed. Price tagged the 7570s before flushing again into the end of day, where it once more found support at the 7540s. The way sellers were unable to press below the 7535 confluence, and buyers kept defending into the close, leaves that lower region as the area to watch going Wednesdays session.

After bad headlines regarding the Iran conflict, Wednesdays overnight sold off 90 to 100 points to the downside. Overnight inventory was net short going into the RTH open, however no counter auction occurred and bulls got trapped above June’s high AVWAP, causing a flush that almost took out the overnight low by a few points. Price did take out Thursday’s poor low at 7480, leaving a poor low of its own at 7470, an indication that the auction may not be finished at those prices just yet.

From there price began to rally all the way into the previous day’s AVWAP in the 7530s, closing below it while also leaving a poor high at 7537. With poor extremes left at both ends..

After an overnight rally, ES Thursday session opened on a gap and go, using the previous day’s high as support, and price rallied all the way into the monthly call wall at 7595, where it found resistance at the end of day. Buyers stayed in control for most of the session, leaning on that prior high and pushing price up towards the biggest overhead reference on the board.

Thursdays session left a poor low yet again at 7530, which will remain a reference going forward. With price stalling right at the call wall and an unfinished business at the low sitting beneath, the market has clear references at both ends to work from, the 7595 resistance above and that poor 7530 low below.

Friday’s session opened up bullish, putting a closure above the 7595 reference during A period, with B period looking to set up for a legitimate breakout. However, more negative headlines regarding the Iran conflict hit the tape, with Trump stating a ceasefire is now off the cards, and price flushed all the way into the previous week’s POC and weekly VWAP at around 7556.

From there price rallied, trapping late sellers in the process, and bulls gained enough fuel to break out, putting a daily closure in the 7620s that sets the tone for next week. The key going forward is bulls holding above the breakout level at 7595, with that reclaim keeping the momentum intact heading into the new week. The 7649 ATH remains a target for bulls so long as 7595 holds cleanly,

Let’s take a look at our 4 Hour TPO Chart which will soon be available on an exclusive platform for paid members “The Auction Desk”

As we broke out of the 7595 level on the 4 hour we left excess, which is going to be crucial to hold when retested, a failure to hold this can lead to a traverse of last weeks whole balance range with unfinished business below they would be ideal targets with 7558 being the first target and last weeks poor low at the 7470 level..

It’s important to note that if a previous weeks high or low gets taken out during the week, for example the high gets taken out.. it’s rare that the prior weeks low will get taken out in that current week, and the same goes for the low.. if the low gets taken it’s rare that the high also gets taken too… This infact set the tone for the week in terms of “staying with the trend”… Something worth noting for future reference.. Last weeks high got taken out and they bought right below the prior weeks poor low which is also a Balance low.. However another poor low was made in the process leaving no excess, which, according to auction market theory means.. there is unfinished business at those poor lows..

On the daily timeframe we see nice excess left at the breakout day.. breakout day being Friday.. strong institutional buying on the back off negative headlines.. the market just doesn’t give a fuck it seems..

How I’m seeing this market is 7595 has to be held as immediate support for a rally into the ATH at 7649.. if 7649 is cleared with high volume I am expected a surge into 7700.. with 7695 being the most actively traded call strike on the monthly profile… In terms of options structure the no.1 OI strike on the board is 7645.. with us being in positive gamma in a bullish uptrend, I don’t why we can’t test this during the week, with a break above and hold 7700 isn’t out the question either… HVL still rests at 7540, however this may change come Monday open…

If I am being totally honest, I myself am not a breakout trader, I trade exhausted moves that run out gas and take the other end. It’s served me well & this sort of trade at 7595 is not something I’d like to long into.. however what I will say is, as a bull I’d like to see a range be put in, a new balance for say… anywhere in the range off 7595 and 7675, possibly trading a false breakdown off the 7595 after a range has been put in.. this to me is more natural and is my bread and butter… that’s not to say it doesn’t work, that’s just my preference.

As it stands I’m actively looking at a false breakout

Or a range being put in to potentially put a failed breakdown in..

Next weeks Level 7595…

UPSIDE TARGETS 7650, 7700 & 7725

DOWNSIDE TARGETS 7555, 7530 & 7500

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | July 07, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 248,319 contracts, 8.8% of open interest
Short, 285,455 contracts, 10.1% of open interest
Spreading, 597,478 contracts, 21.2% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 37,136 contracts. Two weeks ago they were net short by 31,807 contracts. After the enormous short covering we saw during the quarterly expiry, the smart money has essentially stabilised here, adding a modest 3,676 shorts while trimming 1,209 longs. This is a quiet week of positioning, no aggressive moves in either direction. The large speculators are sitting close to neutral and waiting.

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,679,592 contracts, 59.6% of open interest
Short, 1,745,394 contracts, 61.9% of open interest

What this tells us. Commercials added 13,773 longs while cutting 9,128 shorts, a modest lean toward the long side this week. They remain net short overall as they typically are, but the small addition of longs and reduction of shorts is worth a passing note. Nothing dramatic, just gentle repositioning.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 294,991 contracts, 10.5% of open interest
Short, 192,053 contracts, 6.8% of open interest

What this tells us. Retail cut 8,984 longs and added 9,033 shorts this week. This is a notable shift for the smaller trader, reducing longs and building shorts, meaning retail got somewhat less bullish this week. They remain net long overall at roughly 102,938 contracts, but the direction of the change is worth watching.

Total open interest was essentially flat this week, up just 3,659 contracts. After the massive 744,675 contract unwind during the quarterly expiry two weeks ago, participation has settled and the market is now in a quieter positioning phase. This is a consolidation week in the data, no major shifts across any category.

The key takeaway is what is not happening in the positioning. After weeks of the large speculators aggressively building shorts and then violently covering them during expiry, this week shows them sitting still at roughly neutral. The short covering fuel that powered the recovery rally is spent and there is no fresh aggressive positioning to replace it. The smart money is in wait and see mode.

This is the same pattern we have seen play out repeatedly. A catalyst hits, shorts get trapped at a key level, and the resulting covering fuels the move. The important thing to watch now is whether genuine new demand steps in to hold these higher prices, or whether the move fades once the trapped shorts have finished covering, as we have seen happen before on low follow through.

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

Educational Content

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How To Trade TPO W/ AVWAP - Weekly ES Market Plan 06/10 July - Auction Analysis & Options Positioning

Sun, 05 Jul 2026 09:58:05 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

LAST FRIDAY

Another huge sell-off during ETH dragged ES all the way down into the monthly put wall 7365, the biggest and most stable pocket of downside dealer inventory. It was crucial the market got a reaction there, otherwise a deeper long liquidation was on the cards, but that did not happen… Price tapped the put wall at the RTH open and a short covering rally commenced (counter auction to overnight inventory), running all the way up into the sticky zone I’d been calling all week last week.. That zone is the put transition on the monthly 7450, and acceptance above it would have pulled us out of negative gamma, however it got rejected and we traded it back lower.

THE OBJECTIVE COMING INTO THIS WEEK

The most important task for bulls was to reclaim and hold above the 7465.. The whole week was framed around one question, could bulls reclaim the flip and change the regime, or would price stay pinned in this multi day balance we had formed..

Starting the shortened week, Mondays session saw a quick upthrust (failed breakout) above the overnight high, which looked like bears were strong right out the gate as they flushed violently to the downside in B period.. A quite unusual sell off, However bulls caught a bid at the previous week’s VAL and Friday’s halfback, leaving a questionable low (day timeframe trading buying at exact references.. being that a bid was caught at the prior Fridays halfback.. usually weaker hands buy at exact references)… Given the excess made at this low, This was enough breaking out of this multi-day balance area…

After breaking out of last week’s balance, it was key for bulls to continue momentum, and they opened strong out the gate on what was an end-of-month session. The biggest open interest on the options chain across all expiries was the 7560 level. Price grinded towards it, bleeding customer theta in the process. Once price tapped 7560 it sold off, and continued to do so during ETH. The session left a clear buying tail at 7515..

Wednesdays session kicked off with a parabolic leg up, continuing its breakout. Price tapped into the 7515 buy tail from Tuesdays session.. This level was given pre market, putting in a false breakdown of the overnight low. They trapped sellers, and price ran all the way up into the 7578s where it stalled, making a poor high in the process.

Thursdays session very similar to last Fridays, bulls start strong and get trapped above the overnight high.. price had a violent flush to the downside.. However catching a bid at the previous months and previous weeks AVWAPs alongside it being the weekly lower standard deviation and a 0dte put wall 7480 price rallied into the close right where they broke down from 7520s.. Leaving a poor high and a poor low in the process.

The way I am seeing this market, bulls need to hold the monthly HVL currently sitting at 7535. This is a big support level and an area where bulls broke down and failed to support in Thursday’s session, with price backtesting it in the same session. However Friday’s shortened session closed above it, which puts us in a good place for a continued move higher.

In terms of profile structure, after breaking out of the previous four day balance from last week, this week we have formed a three day balance in the range of 7485 to 7580. On the weekly we have left a nice excess buy tail with the base at 7445, along with a poor high at 7594, meaning the auction may not quite be finished at higher prices, a suspended auction. A bullish reference worth noting going into next week.

On the monthly gamma profile we have Call Major at 7605 and a Call Minor at 7655, with the Call Minor holding Absolute GEX 2, meaning it is the second highest GEX level on both the put and call side. 7555 is number one. On the downside we have the 7450 put wall, which gives the 7445 weekly buying tail some additional confluence, with Put Minor sitting at 7400.

Levels Heading Into Next Week

The level I am watching for the week is 7535, which also aligns with Thursday’s M period spike high.

Holding above 7535 I would be looking for targets at 7605, 7655 and 7700. Holding below 7535 I would be looking for targets at 7480 (Thursday’s poor low), 7450 and 7400.

A really cool way to use TPO Trading w/ AVWAP..

First things first, for anyone who isn’t familiar with VWAP let me explain…

VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. Thee average price everyone has paid over a given period, but weighted by how much volume traded at each price.

That weighting is the important part. A normal average treats every price equally. VWAP doesn’t. If a huge amount of contracts trade at 7500 and only a handful trade at 7520, VWAP leans toward 7500, because that’s where the real business got done. So it’s not just “the middle of the range,” it’s the price the most money actually agreed on.

That’s why we call it fair value. It’s the market’s own consensus of what this thing is worth right now, backed by real volume.

The bands measure how far price is straying from that fair value.

Standard deviation is just a measure of spread, how far, on average, price has wandered away from the VWAP.

One standard deviation captures the bulk of that normal wandering. Roughly speaking, price spends most of its time inside the 1 standard deviation bands, and pokes outside them less often.

So think of it like this….. the VWAP is fair value, and the bands are the edges of “normal.”

Weekly ES Market Plan 29/03 June/July - Auction Analysis, Options Positioning & COT Report Analysis

Fri, 26 Jun 2026 22:12:52 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Mondays open on ES opened right next to the overnight high, taking it out in what looked like a bullish open, with A period closing above the 7581 reference level from the weekly newsletter. However B period saw longs liquidated and a flush to the downside, with price finding support at the put major level at 7540. From there ES put in a range, forming a b-shaped profile across the 7560 and 7530 area, with the rally high made in E period at 7560

Tuesday produced A huge sell-off triggered in ETH, with price dropping over 100 points to the downside. The pre-market read had flagged a counter auction off the back of net short overnight inventory, a rally to flush out weak shorts was the higher-probability outcome, and that is exactly what unfolded as bulls reclaimed 7465 and drove price higher. It looked briefly as though bulls had reclaimed the previous week’s low, but they became exhausted at that point. The intraday commentary had noted a willingness from passive sellers to soak up the buy-side, and they did precisely that, absorbing until buyers were exhausted, at which point a flush to the downside became likely. With the poor low left in D and E period, that level was likely to be revisited… it was taken out by the close. Bulls left a buy tail at the open.

Wednesdays price action… After an initial short squeeze broke the 7465 supply flagged in the intraday commentary, bulls looked set for a push toward higher prices, only to be halted at the previous week’s buy tail, which was now acting as resistance. The commentary had identified that getting above 7497 would be the signal of genuine strength, but bulls failed to achieve it. A deeper flush followed, reversing all the way into the previous day’s low and then some. MU earnings after hours recovered almost the entire move.

Thursdays Overnight inventory was net long heading into the session, and the key principle here is that what doesn’t happen is just as informative as what does. Around 65% of the time a counter auction develops, a pullback when inventory is net long, a rally when it’s net short. But an absence of that counter auction within the first hour signals a strong market. Today delivered a huge 100-point counter auction that took out both the overnight low and the prior day low, putting in a failed breakdown around the 7390s. From there a strong push back developed toward the daily level at 7473… price tapped it and immediately flushed to the downside, fast enough that anyone not paying close attention would have been left wondering what just happened. Two downside targets were met on the leg down into the failed breakdown. A strong level overall.

Yet again, the common theme this week and it was no change on Friday with another huge sell-off during ETH caused ES to flush all the way into an important dealer level at 7365, the monthly put wall. Monthly gamma levels are a lot more stable and carry far more inventory than your typical 0DTE, so it was crucial that the market got a reaction here, otherwise a potential long liquidation was on the cards. That did not happen. Price tapped the 7365 reference in ETH at the RTH open and a short covering rally commenced, running all the way into the 7450s, an area I’ve been calling the sticky zone all week. This 7450 level is the put transition level for the monthly, meaning acceptance above it would have taken us out of negative gamma from a monthly perspective. However it got rejected… The level got rejected in E period, leaving its POC untested until H period came back and tested it, at which point a flush to the downside happened..

As shown above ES is putting in a huge multi day balance range.. with value mainly migrating lower. The key for next week is for bulls to breakout of this range which I have down as the breakout level being 7497. Last FOMC’s buy tail low, which was resistance for most of this week… the 7440’s and 7480s is what I refer to as the “sticky” zone, price action is moving very sloppy around this area, not the best area for trade location.

In today’s session we saw a bounce straight of the upper standard deviation bands on the yearly VWAP. in all fairness regardless of downside pressure these past couple of weeks, a bounce from the upper standard deviation keeps the bullish narrative intact.. With that being said, The level I would like to monitor going into next week is going to be today's buying tail base at 7370, we have confluence with the monthly put wall also at 7365, not no manic 0dte malarky, these monthly levels are super solid stacked to death with inventory..

Acceptance above targets 7404, 7444, 7497

Acceptance below targets 7350, 7333, 7301

Monthly Gamma Profile with most relevant price levels.

C1, 7565, Major Call Wall.

cT, 7555, Call Transition.

HVL, 7510, Gamma Flip.

pT, 7450, Put Transition.

P1, 7365, Major Put Wall.

The Absolute GEX levels are where calls and puts stack largest together, making them the strongest confluence strikes….

Ab3, 7515, sitting right at the gamma flip, reinforcing 7510 to 7515 as a critical decision zone.

Ab2, 7465

P2, 7355

Price is in negative gamma below the 7510 gamma flip, meaning amplified moves remain the theme. 7510 to 7515 is the level that decides everything, reinforced by both the gamma flip and the Ab3 absolute level stacked together. Reclaim and hold above there and the market stabilises, with 7555 and 7565 coming into play. Stay below and dealers keep accelerating the downside toward the 7450 put transition, then the heavily defended 7355 to 7365 put wall zone……

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | June 23, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

Long, 244,536 contracts, 8.5% of open interest
Short, 276,343 contracts, 9.6% of open interest
Spreading, 634,439 contracts, 22.0% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 31,807 contracts. Last week they were net short by 171,790 contracts. This is a massive shift. Large speculators dumped 153,599 shorts in a single week while also cutting 16,122 longs. That is the most aggressive short covering we have seen in this entire run. The smart money has dramatically unwound its bearish positioning, taking their net short from heavily bearish to nearly neutral in one week.

Commercials, The Hedgers

Long, 1,697,078 contracts, 58.9% of open interest
Short, 1,780,612 contracts, 61.8% of open interest

What this tells us. Commercials slashed both sides aggressively, cutting 541,892 longs and 417,954 shorts. This is an enormous reduction in positioning across the board. Worth noting they remain net short overall, but the sheer scale of the unwind on both sides points to major repositioning rather than a directional statement.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

Long, 305,739 contracts, 10.6% of open interest
Short, 190,398 contracts, 6.6% of open interest

What this tells us. Retail cut 37,066 longs and 23,527 shorts. Retail reduced exposure significantly on both sides but remains broadly net long, sitting on roughly 115,341 net long contracts.

The main thing that stands out to me this week is the enormous drop in total open interest!! wtf!, down an insane 744,675 contracts. This is a gigantic reduction in overall market participation, almost certainly driven by quarterly futures expiry and the associated roll and unwind. A lot of positioning was closed out across every category this week.

But the most important development for our ongoing story is the large speculators covering shorts. For weeks we tracked them building a relentless short position, peaking at nearly 200,000 net short contracts in early June. They have now covered the vast majority of that, sitting at just 31,807 net short.

The bearish inventory that acted as a tailwind for any bounce has now largely been used up. The smart money is close to neutral, no longer aggressively positioned for downside but not yet leaning long either. The market now needs genuine new demand to push higher rather than relying on trapped shorts being forced to cover. A meaningful shift in the underlying dynamics heading into next week…

NAAIM Report, What Active Fund Managers Are Doing Week Ending June 24, 2026

This Week’s Reading, 98.59

Last week managers were at 92.83. This week they have pushed even higher to 98.59, with the 4 week moving average at 89.38. Managers are now essentially fully invested again, back at the same elevated levels we saw at the late May peak before the early June sell off. The recovery rally has drawn professional money all the way back in.

Looking at the recent path:

06/03/2026, 86.82
06/10/2026, 79.27
06/17/2026, 92.83
06/24/2026, 98.59

At 98.59 managers are about as invested as they get…. There is very little left in the tank from this group to push the market meaningfully higher.

Now layer this on top of everything else we are seeing. The COT report shows large speculators have covered nearly all of their shorts, taking their net position from heavily bearish to almost neutral. At the same time managers are fully invested at 98.59 and price is sitting in negative gamma below the 7510 gamma flip.

Put simply, the two biggest sources of buying fuel that drove this rally, short covering from the smart money and managers redeploying capital, are both now close to exhausted. For the market to continue higher from here it needs genuine fresh demand, not trapped shorts and not managers playing catch up. Combined with a negative gamma backdrop that amplifies downside moves and a hawkish unpredictable Fed, this is a market priced for perfection up here. When everyone is already in the pool, you have to ask who is left to buy. The risk reward for chasing longs at these levels is poor, and caution is more than warranted heading into next week.

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

Educational Content

FH Volume Trader Youtube Channel

Weekly ES Market Plan 22/26 June - Auction Analysis, Options Positioning & No Updated COT Report Analysis

Sun, 21 Jun 2026 08:28:50 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Monday kicked off with a 137 point gap higher, mostly off the back of the positive news regarding the Iran war. The auction opened with a 50 point rally before stalling at the 100% IB upside extension, which marked the high of the week. Tuesday’s auction was unable to trade above Monday’s VWAP closing price at 7627. A period opened above but closed below, and B period made an attempt to jump back above but failed, leading to a minor sell off through Tuesday’s session.

Wednesday, as is usual on FOMC and VIX expiry days, was choppy right up until the market sold off on Warsh’s first FOMC.

Just a brief on what is going on. I do not like to get too caught up in the news as I much prefer to speculate on auction mechanics rather than headlines. But for some of the traders confused as to what is happening in this current market other than price action this is for you..

Trump put Warsh in charge of the Fed because he wanted lower rates, that was the whole point of picking him.. But the war with Iran sent energy prices very very high, pushing inflation up to around 4+% over the past year, the highest in over three years. That puts him in a difficult spot, because you fight inflation by raising rates, not cutting them. So instead of the cuts everyone expected, he held flat this week and is now hinting the next move might actually be a hike.. Which tells you cuts are off the table until prices cool..

Another thing I paid attention to was Warsh saying he is done giving the market a heads up about what he is planning. The old approach warned everyone in advance and kept things predictable, and that is now over, or so it seems.. So, we can expect bigger swings every time an inflation or jobs report drops… So basically, a hawkish surprise in the short term and a less predictable Fed going forward = Volatility…

The market did not react well to this and post FOMC it sold and sold and sold. Thursday’s ETH session then rallied hard, recovering a good portion of the previous day’s sell off. The dip got bought, as it always does in this current market regime. Thursday’s session produced an inside day, meaning we opened within Thursday’s range, failed to break the high or low and closed within. Another very choppy day.

There are a few levels going into next week that are important, backed by dealer positioning as well as strong market profile references, giving these particular levels strong confluence.

7622, Tuesday’s rally high made in F period. This is also the 3rd Highest Call Wall for 0DTE (Mondays session), This would be an upside target if 7580 gets reclaimed or we open above and hold any dips into it. I would monitor this level closely as it was a strong level last week.

Some of my subscribers may not be too clued up on the patterns market profiles make or the meaning behind them, and there is a lot more to market profiles than just profile shapes. If you are a Discord member you will already know these patterns as I speak about them every single day. A rally high occurs in a downtrend when price rallies, which is highly likely an inventory adjustment before price continues with the trend. This makes it a good reference and a good trade location, as well as a good place to think about taking profits.

This is an example of a downtrend day, with a slight surge in price, then a continued move to the downside. The following day we mark this level as importance, opening below the level confirms that sellers gained acceptance of this move which increases the odds of a continuation move the following day.. However, if price opens above this level this would now be monitored to see if buyers can use this as support. This would deemed as a “Change in behaviour”..

7581, Thursday’s spike made in M period, with the weekly HVL (high volatility level) sitting at 7580. This makes it the most important level for next week. On top of that it is also the Monday to Thursday RTH VWAP closing price for the week, as we had a short week. That is three confluences stacked together. Acceptance above targets 7620 and 7670. Acceptance below opens the door to 7535 and 7497.

Weekly Gamma Profile, June 26, 2026

The gamma profile heading into next week is firmly in negative gamma territory.. In negative gamma dealers amplify moves rather than suppress them..

Weekly Gamma Profile with most relevant price levels.

Call Wall Major, 7670. This is where positive gamma begins to take over and dealer behaviour flips back to suppressing moves. This is what we would associate with choppy Price action..

callTrans, Transition Level 7595.

HVL and putTrans, 7580. The high volatility level… Which ties directly into our 7580 market profile confluence. Reclaiming this flips the regime back toward stability.

Put Wall Major, 7415. If selling accelerates in negative gamma, this is the level dealers’ hedging activity points toward.

0DTE (Mondays Price levels)

The adaptive expected move for the week, puts the range between 7406.12 to the downside and 7672.26 to the upside, roughly 135 points lower and 130 points higher. That gives you a realistic range to work with for the week ahead. This is a 68% probability based on the options data.. this can change during the week as price action evolves..

On net exposure, net gamma is sitting at -88.58M and net delta at -12.47B, both confirming negative gamma. Price is also at 91% of its 52 week range, so we are still trading near the highs despite the recent choppiness and the post FOMC sell off.

All in all.. Price is in negative gamma below the 7580 HVL, which means amplified moves and bigger swings, exactly what you would expect from a hawkish Fed that has stopped telegraphing its intentions. 7580 is the level that matters most. Above it the market stabilises and 7620 to 7670 comes into play. Below it dealers accelerate the downside toward 7535, 7497 and potentially the 7415 gamma reference. The market profile and the dealer positioning are in complete agreement heading into next week.

WE DO NOT HAVE AN UPDATED COT REPORT THIS WEEK…

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | June 09, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

These are people betting with their own money trying to profit. They do NOT use futures to hedge a real business.

• Long, 277,794 contracts, 8.5% of open interest

• Short, 449,584 contracts, 13.7% of open interest

• Spreading, 772,184 contracts, 23.6% of open interest

What this tells us. Net short by approximately 171,790 contracts. Last week they were net short by 195,363 contracts. For the first time in weeks large speculators actually covered shorts, reducing their short positions by 9,474 contracts while adding 14,099 new longs. This is worth paying close attention to. The smart money began covering into the sell off and buying, suggesting they may be starting to take profits on their bearish positions.

Commercials, The Hedgers

These are the biggest players in the market. Banks, institutions, asset managers and corporations that use futures to protect their portfolios, not to speculate.

• Long, 1,901,620 contracts, 58.0% of open interest

• Short, 1,839,108 contracts, 56.1% of open interest

What this tells us. Commercials added aggressively to both sides, bringing in 52,647 new longs and 82,223 new shorts. Their short additions outpaced longs significantly this week, meaning the hedging community leaned more bearish in their positioning. An interesting shift given the market bounce this week.

Non-Reportables, Retail Traders

Positions too small to meet the reporting threshold, essentially everyday retail traders like most people reading this.

• Long, 326,189 contracts, 10.0% of open interest

• Short, 216,910 contracts, 6.6% of open interest

What this tells us. Retail cut 4,591 longs and covered 10,594 shorts this week. Retail is reducing exposure on both sides, suggesting some uncertainty crept into the smaller trader community following last week’s sell off.

Total open interest grew by 98,758 contracts, the largest single week increase we have seen in this entire analysis. New money is flooding into the market.

The most significant development this week is the large speculators finally covering shorts. Three consecutive weeks of aggressive short building followed by a week of short covering is a meaningful shift. However with 171,790 net short contracts still outstanding there is still a significant amount of inventory to be unwound. The question is whether this was profit taking after a successful trade or the beginning of a genuine sentiment shift.

Commercials adding heavily to shorts while large speculators cover is an interesting dynamic to monitor. If large speculators continue covering next week while price holds above 7,398, the short covering fuel we have been discussing for weeks could begin to ignite. If they resume adding shorts it tells you the bearish conviction remains intact and the bounce this week was simply an opportunity to reload.

NAAIM Report, What Active Fund Managers Are Doing Week Ending June 17, 2026

This Week’s Reading, 92.83

Last week managers were at 79.27. This week they have jumped back up to 92.83, a meaningful increase. After three consecutive weeks of reducing exposure following the early June sell off, managers have stepped back in and rebuilt their positions aggressively. The recent recovery in price clearly drew them back into the market.

Looking at the recent progression…

05/27/2026, 98.39, near full investment at the highs
06/03/2026, 86.82, trimming after the sell off
06/10/2026, 79.27, continued de-risking
06/17/2026, 92.83, piling back in as price recovered

Managers chasing price right back up to 92.83 tells you confidence returned quickly once the market stabilised and bounced. This is normal behaviour, reduce into weakness then chase into strength. The deviation this week is 49.11, relatively moderate, meaning managers are reasonably aligned in their bullish positioning. The most bearish manager sits at -25 while the bulk of managers are between 87.50 and 100, so the majority are heavily invested once again..

At 92.83 managers are once again approaching the upper end of their exposure, which means a lot of the dry powder that built up during the early June de-risking has now been redeployed. Combined with the negative gamma backdrop below the 7580 HVL and a less predictable hawkish Fed, the market is heavily invested heading into a higher volatility environment. If sentiment shifts on the next inflation or jobs print, there are once again a lot of fully invested managers who could be forced to reduce quickly..

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Weekly ES Market Plan 15/19 June - Auction Analysis, Options Positioning & COT Report Analysis

Sun, 14 Jun 2026 10:40:23 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

I will be rolling over to the ESU6 contract if you are confused to the levels provided in this newsletter..

Plans given this week, please find files attached to review weekly performance..

Monday Brief

40.2KB ∙ PDF file

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Trading Plan V3

14.4KB ∙ PDF file

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Tuesday Flush Brief

39.9KB ∙ PDF file

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Trading Plan V4

12.5KB ∙ PDF file

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After last Friday’s emotional sell off, this week was always going to be all eyes on bulls and whether buyers were genuinely drying up after weeks of one time framing higher on the daily, weekly and monthly, a structure that was broken in Friday’s sell off.

Monday’s session opened within Friday’s single prints from J period. Bulls looked to be gaining some pace with C period probing above the initial balance high, however that was quickly sold as buyers chasing the breakout got trapped. D period closed back within balance and price sold off for the rest of the day.

Tuesday’s session opened on a gap up with buyers getting aggressive at the open, probing Monday’s high. Yet again buyers got trapped, triggering another huge and emotional sell off.

Wednesday had clear structure to work with after Tuesday’s session produced a rally high. Wednesday opened and tagged 7399, Tuesday’s rally high, and you can probably guess what happened. The theme of the week was firmly established by this point, trap buyers within the first hour and liquidate, and that is exactly what followed with another emotional sell off.

Thursday had a similar tone at the open, however Thursday’s high was a poor one, signalling the auction was not quite done at those prices, unfinished business as they say. Trump then announced that a deal with Iran was imminent and the market reacted very well, rallying strongly in the process.

Friday it was crucial for buyers to maintain and push value higher following Thursday’s rally, and even more importantly to respond to last Friday’s devastating sell off. They did exactly that, with price accepting value above the spike base made during Thursday’s rally.

Levels Heading Into Next Week

It will be crucial for buyers to defend the pullback low made in Friday’s session at 7461 (ESU6). With that being said we can talk about some options analysis because there are some good confluences to this level..

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | June 00, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

These are people betting with their own money trying to profit. They do NOT use futures to hedge a real business.

• Long, 277,794 contracts, 8.5% of open interest

• Short, 449,584 contracts, 13.7% of open interest

• Spreading, 772,184 contracts, 23.6% of open interest

Commercials, The Hedgers

These are the biggest players in the market. Banks, institutions, asset managers and corporations that use futures to protect their portfolios, not to speculate.

• Long, 1,901,620 contracts, 58.0% of open interest

• Short, 1,839,108 contracts, 56.1% of open interest

Non-Reportables, Retail Traders

Positions too small to meet the reporting threshold, essentially everyday retail traders like most people reading this.

• Long, 326,189 contracts, 10.0% of open interest

• Short, 216,910 contracts, 6.6% of open interest

Total open interest grew by 98,758 contracts, the largest single week increase we have seen in this entire analysis. New money is flooding into the market.

ES/SPX is sitting in positive gamma territory but barely. In this environment dealers are suppressing volatility, buying dips and selling rallies.. as many of you know who read my newsletter, not to sound repetitive but I must write this to inform new subscribers who may not be so in touch with the options side of the market..

Next weeks Put & Call Wall the 7,465.14 to 7,460.56 becomes the key reference as, this will be my weekly level with Fridays price action leaving an inventory adjustment pullback referred to by many TPO traders as the “Pullback Low”. Three major references stack up right there, the weekly put wall, the total open interest call wall and the total OI gamma flip all sitting within 5 points of each other. So this level is going to be difficult to break on a first attempt but if it goes, it will likely flush aggressively..

To the upside 7515 is the weekly call wall and the immediate overhead resistance.. Any early week rally that reaches this level will face aggressive dealer selling... But what I also recommend you guys to think like, think like this.. what doesn’t happen is almost as important at what does happen.. for example, if on Monday we open up and burst through this key level.. what didn’t happen was a defence of the price level, what did happen was BUYERS.. key word here BUYERS, got aggressive and took control.. think in these terms and your going to have an easier time to view the markets in a clear headed way..

When analysing this weeks options chain, What I find odd is the disconnect between where price is and what the options market is actually saying. Put call ratios are sitting at 1.17 on volume and 1.39 on open interest, both firmly bearish. Participants are buying downside protection aggressively even as price grinds higher. The market is hedging hard and that tells you confidence in this rally is not as strong as the price action suggests..

The June 18 expiry expected move puts the range between 7,382.98 to the downside and 7,601.48 to the upside. Max pain all the way down at 7,065.14 is the tail risk level worth keeping on the chart.

The Levels

Weekly Call Wall, 7,515.14

Weekly Gamma Flip, 7,460

Put Wall and Call Wall, 7,465.14 to 7,460.56

Expected Move Low, 7,382.98

Max Pain, 7,065.14

NAAIM Report, What Active Fund Managers Are Doing Week Ending June 10, 2026

This Week’s Reading, 79.27

Two weeks ago managers were at 98.39, almost fully invested. Last week they pulled back to 86.82 following Friday’s sell off. This week they have trimmed further to 79.27, with the 4 week moving average sitting at 86.62. Three consecutive weeks of reduction from the peak tells you managers are gradually de-risking, not panicking, but quietly stepping back from elevated exposure.

79.27 is still a relatively elevated reading historically, managers are not shying away from the markets. But the direction matters as much as the number. Peak exposure at 98.39, then 86.82, now 79.27. Each week following the sell off managers are reducing and not accumulating….

If this number continues lower next week it confirms managers are genuinely de-risking and that long inventory is still being unwound, which adds to the selling pressure already identified in the COT report.. If it bounces back toward 90 it would suggest managers used the dip as a buying opportunity and confidence is returning. Combined with the COT data showing large speculators beginning to cover shorts, next week’s NAAIM reading will be a very important data point in understanding whether this market is genuinely recovering or simply bouncing before the next leg lower…

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Weekly ES Market Plan 08/12 June - Auction Analysis, Options Positioning & COT Report Analysis

Sat, 06 Jun 2026 15:16:34 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Monday’s RTH open kicked off by taking out Friday’s RTH low, forming a weak low by only probing a few ticks below before price began to rally to a fresh all time high. This low was worth noting as there was a high chance of it being revisited during the week or possibly the week after.

During Tuesday’s ETH session active sellers were present trying to force price lower. Tuesday’s RTH opened and rallied on one of the weakest volume sessions we have had in a while, forming a P shaped profile in the process, which is associated with short covering. A short covering rally weakens an uptrend because the buyers are not genuine bulls, they are simply closing losing short positions. Once they are done covering, the buying stops entirely. Low volume on top of this makes it concerning for bulls, showing there is no real demand behind the move, and when the covering is finished there is nothing left to support price at higher levels.

After Tuesday’s session I mentioned… “I am expecting a long liquidation, Tuesday’s rally was done on weak volume and short covering.”

Short Covering, Followed By Long Liquidation References Above.

That is exactly what we got on Wednesday, weak longs flushed. With this in mind I got into some SPY puts late into Tuesday when context was clear, which profited nicely on Wednesday’s flush lower.

Thursday’s session rallied and almost took out Wednesday’s entire range, however bulls failed leaving a poor high in the process. Combined with Tuesday’s weak high, both levels remain references going forward as they suggest unfinished business at the new ATH. I reloaded on more puts at the ATH AVWAP at a decent fill on Thursday with NFP in mind for Friday.

Friday’s session brought one of the most aggressive downtrend days I have seen since the October 2025 sell off. The NFP report came in positive, yet the market sold off aggressively, which left even Trump publicly confused as to why stocks were dropping on good news. I can’t lie his confusion made me laugh… In my opinion the price action was a combination of long liquidation and new money sellers, and this is something I have been pointing to for a while now. The smart money was slowly building bearish inventory, something we have been tracking in the COT reports each week. This week’s biggest clue was the P shaped profile on very low volume. When I see that combination my caution around long trades increases significantly and my focus shifts toward shorts.

To put everything into context, the main goal this week was for bulls to hold and build value above the prior week’s profile, which they managed to do. However Friday’s sell off was aggressive and emotional, taking out the prior week’s low in the process. This is the first time in weeks that bears have managed to take out a prior week’s low, a significant development. Friday’s profile has left a lot of references to work from going forward, including numerous single prints that will act as key levels in the sessions ahead.

On the weekly profile we have left a P shaped profile with a bearish close, meaning inventory was collected at the highs, bearish positions were accumulating and the aggressive flush followed, leaving a huge tail on low volume.

Friday’s sell off has pushed price down to 7368, closing the week below both the 5MA at 7548 and the 20MA at 7493. This is the first significant close below both moving averages in weeks and is worth paying attention to.

Price is now sitting just above the YTD VWAP at 7015, with the YTD low VWAP curling up at 7182. These are the big picture levels that matter if selling continues. The YTD POC at 6880 is the major support below that, representing where the most volume has been traded all year.

The rally from the April lows has been clean and consistent, but Friday’s candle is the most aggressive bearish weekly close we have seen since that low was put in. Bulls need to reclaim the 20MA at 7493 early next week to avoid further deterioration. Failing that, the YTD VWAP becomes the next logical destination.

This week’s key level is Friday’s M period high at 7423. Holding above targets 7478, 7505 and 7523 as price backtests the poor structure left from Friday’s session. Failure to hold opens the door to 7385, 7350 and 7322.

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | June 02, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

These are people betting with their own money trying to profit. They do NOT use futures to hedge a real business.

Long, 263,695 contracts, 8.3% of open interest
Short, 459,058 contracts, 14.4% of open interest
Spreading, 735,580 contracts, 23.1% of open interest

What this tells us. These guys are NET SHORT by about 195,363 contracts. Last week they were net short by 151,416 contracts. They added 11,001 new longs but also added a massive 54,947 new shorts in a single week. The smart money did not flinch during the rally to all time highs, they used it as an opportunity to aggressively build their short inventory. This is now three consecutive weeks of large speculators adding to their short positions.

Commercials, The Hedgers

These are the biggest players in the market. Banks, institutions, asset managers and corporations that use futures to protect their portfolios, not to speculate.

Long, 1,848,973 contracts, 58.2% of open interest
Short, 1,756,885 contracts, 55.3% of open interest

What this tells us. Commercials added 38,238 new longs while cutting 8,394 shorts, making them meaningfully more net long this week. This is the hedging community leaning into the long side, suggesting they are protecting against further upside or positioning for a bounce. Worth monitoring if this continues next week.

Non-Reportables, Retail Traders

Positions too small to meet the reporting threshold, essentially everyday retail traders like most people reading this.

Long, 330,779 contracts, 10.4% of open interest
Short, 227,504 contracts, 7.2% of open interest

What this tells us. Retail added 10,194 new longs and 12,880 new shorts this week, growing both sides. Their net long position remains intact but the addition of shorts suggests some retail traders are finally starting to feel the uncertainty. Still broadly net long overall.

All in All

Total open interest grew again by 89,229 contracts, meaning new money continued to enter the market this week. Participation is increasing.

The large speculators have now added aggressively to their short positions for three consecutive weeks. Three weeks ago they were net short by 119,691 contracts. Two weeks ago 151,416. This week 195,363. That is a relentless and deliberate buildup of bearish inventory at all time highs, exactly what we have been highlighting in this report every single week.

Friday’s sell off finally gave those positions their reward. But here is the important part going forward. Nearly 200,000 net short contracts still need to be covered at some point. That is an enormous amount of future buying demand still sitting in the market. If price stabilises above 7423 next week and bulls begin to reclaim structure, those shorts will start feeling pressure and the covering rally that follows could be sharp and aggressive. On the other hand if bears continue to press and 7423 fails, those short positions remain comfortable and the path to 7385, 7350 and 7322 opens up cleanly….

Major Positive, 7611.08 (cyan)
Zero Gamma, 7511.08 and 7508.58 (white)
Major Negative, 7411.08 (pink)
Major Negative, 7386.08 (pink)

NAAIM Report, What Active Fund Managers Are Doing Week Ending June 03, 2026

Last week managers were at 98.39, almost fully invested. This week they have pulled back to 86.82, with the 4 week moving average sitting at 86.14. The pullback from near full investment makes sense given Friday’s sell off, managers trimmed exposure as the market rolled over.

At 86.82 managers are still heavily invested. This is not a reading that suggests panic or aggressive de-risking, it is a modest trim from an extremely elevated position. The concerning part is that even after Friday’s aggressive sell off, managers have barely reduced their exposure. If the market continues lower next week there is still a significant amount of long inventory that needs to be unwound, and that unwinding becomes selling pressure. With the COT report showing smart money sitting on nearly 200,000 net short contracts and managers still 86% invested, the risk of further long liquidation remains very much alive heading into next week.

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Weekly ES Market Plan 01/05 June - Auction Analysis, Options Positioning & COT Report Analysis

Sun, 31 May 2026 12:53:57 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Sunday’s ETH session opened with a gap higher, rallying to fresh all time highs on low volume off the back of a bank holiday Monday, setting the high at 7569.75. Heading into Tuesday, ETH had already begun to sell off with price opening below the prior all time high at 7540. This was the key reference for the session, bulls needed to establish acceptance above it to start the week with momentum, and they did exactly that within the initial balance. Price closed B period above 7540 and buyers appeared to be in control.

However, C period told a different story. Price made a look above the initial balance high and failed, with volume tapering off and buyers getting trapped. D period then flushed the 7540 reference level on the back of negative Iran news that I flagged pre market.

Before the open I shared the following with members…

“Hi guys, today I am going to be anchoring the VWAP from last Friday’s M period considering we gapped up pretty high yesterday. This VWAP will be the most important reference for today, they are defending it in the overnight, however any period closures below and I will be looking to mean revert back to Friday’s balance. If we can hold it I will be looking to target yesterday’s ATH.”

“This mean reversion setup would require a period closure below 7522, with acceptance. A tap off the VWAP would be the ideal entry. If we cannot get this setup then I would like 7532 to hold with trapped sellers.”

“Recommendations to navigate today’s session, anchor M period and anchor Friday’s high. This will give us a good idea of where the market is looking to go today.”

“Weak low just been made. Weak buyers bought the low, so if any reversal is to happen this can unfold. Not necessarily today, but it is worth noting that this low is weak going forward.” Mentioned in intraday commentary Discord..

We got the test of the VWAP during A and B period and it worked well. Had there been a bigger excess in A period rather than the mechanical tap of the overnight low and go, I would have been a buyer. However the way it unfolded gave me a real edge and completely changed my bias, now I was looking for a short.

In the overnight session an excess gap was made, C period rejected them, D period tested and price flushed. But there was one other key clue that helped frame this trade. Notice how when NQ begins trading below its zero gamma / HVN level, price unfolds and flushes to the downside. This is a great reference and quite possibly the biggest edge in this kind of setup. It works especially well when NQ is taking the lead and is the stronger of the 2.. allowing us to spot reversals before they fully develop by watching how gamma is positioned across instruments.

“ After the flush, price traded for most of the day within May 14th’s M period range. Which was not necessarily bearish, but heading into Wednesday it is important for bulls to hold 7523, the low of this range. “

The 7534 level proved to be a pivot throughout the entire Wednesdays session, with price drawn back to it repeatedly. Once again gamma provided a strong edge, with ES finding resistance at the 7545 call resistance level, which aligned almost perfectly with Tuesday’s value area high at 7542.

Bears attempted a breakdown below 7517, looking to push price back into Friday’s balance, but the move was immediately rejected and price propelled right back into the upper part of the two day balance that has formed across Tuesday and Wednesday’s sessions.

“ ES looks poised for a breakout in the next two days. One level to pay particularly close attention to is J period’s base and I period’s high, which marked the impulse move to the upside, sitting once again at 7534. “ mentioned pre market Thursday..

Thursday’s session opened with bears making another attempt to break outside of balance, but once again they failed. Bears got trapped at the two day value area low at 7527 and reclaimed the 7534 reference… News broke that the US and Iran had agreed a deal, with the market now waiting on Trump to give the green light. The market reacted emotionally and aggressively to the upside, with Thursday’s profile forming a P shape into the close, associated with a short covering rally..

Fridays session continued its uptrend reaching a new ATH at 7611.50 leaving a weak high in the process which is worth noting as weak excess at highs and lows often get tested in the future.. which brings me to this weeks level..

7571 This weeks Upper Distribution Low.. acceptance above I would look to target 7611/7660/7708

Acceptance below would see me go for targets 7555/7534/7515

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | May 26, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

These are people betting with their own money trying to profit. They do NOT use futures to hedge a real business.

• Long, 252,695 contracts, 8.2% of open interest

• Short, 404,111 contracts, 13.1% of open interest

• Spreading, 705,785 contracts, 22.8% of open interest

What this tells us. These guys are NET SHORT by about 151,416 contracts. Last week they were net short by 119,691 contracts. That means in one week the large speculators added aggressively to their short positions, dumping 21,684 longs while adding 10,041 new shorts. The smart money is becoming more bearish even as the market rallied this week. That is a significant development worth paying close attention to.

Commercials, The Hedgers

These are the biggest players in the market. Banks, institutions, asset managers and corporations that use futures to protect their portfolios, not to speculate.

• Long, 1,810,734 contracts, 58.6% of open interest

• Short, 1,765,279 contracts, 57.1% of open interest

What this tells us. Commercials added heavily to both sides this week, bringing in 56,401 new longs and 39,943 new shorts. Their net position remains relatively balanced as always, but the fact that they added significantly more longs than shorts this week is worth noting. Commercials adding longs into a rally is not necessarily bullish on its own, but it does suggest they are hedging against further upside, meaning they are not ruling it out.

Non-Reportables, Small Retail Traders

These are the small guys. Positions too small to meet the reporting threshold, essentially everyday retail traders like most people reading this.

• Long, 320,585 contracts, 10.4% of open interest

• Short, 214,624 contracts, 6.9% of open interest

What this tells us. Retail added 7,467 new longs while cutting 7,801 shorts this week. In plain english, retail got more bullish. They added to their long positions and covered their shorts as the market rallied. Retail is now even more net long than last week, sitting on roughly 105,961 net long contracts.

All In All

Total open interest grew by 73,123 contracts this week, meaning new money entered the market. This is the opposite of last week where money was leaving. Participation picked up significantly.

The market rallied hard this week on the Iran news, yet the large speculators did not cover their shorts, they added to them. They shed 21,684 longs and added 10,041 new shorts into the rally.

Volume GEX

Zero Gamma, 7579.78 (white)
Major Positive, 7604.27 (cyan)
Major Negative, 7564.27 (pink)

Open Interest GEX

Major Positive, 7614.27 (cyan)
Major Negative, 7489.27 (pink)

Key Zones

Resistance, 7604 to 7614, major positive open interest and major positive GEX stacked, heavily defended ceiling
Current Spot, 7594.01, sitting above zero gamma at 7579, which is actually bullish, dealers are in a supportive role right now
Support, 7564.27, first major negative GEX level below current price, losing this flips dealer hedging against bulls
Major Downside Target, 7489.27, negative open interest level, flagged consistently across technicals, COT and GEX

With spot at 7594 sitting above zero gamma at 7579, dealers are currently dampening volatility and supporting price. Bulls need to push through the 7604 to 7614 resistance stack to open up clean price discovery above. Losing 7579 flips the script and dealers begin amplifying moves to the downside toward 7564 and eventually 7489.

NAAIM Report, What Active Fund Managers Are Doing Week Ending May 27, 2026

This Week’s Reading, 98.39

This is a significant jump. Last week managers were at 82.02, already bullish. This week they have sprinted to 98.39, meaning the average active fund manager is now almost fully invested in the stock market. To put that in context, 100 is fully invested and 200 is leveraged long. These managers are essentially all in.

Looking at the progression over recent weeks tells the full story:

03/25/2026, 68.52, cautious, barely invested
04/08/2026, 69.38, still hesitant
04/22/2026, 94.15, chasing the rally aggressively
05/06/2026, 96.67, nearly fully invested
05/13/2026, 77.34, pulled back as the market wobbled
05/20/2026, 82.02, rebuilding exposure
05/27/2026, 98.39, almost fully invested again, highest reading in months

What The Deviation Tells Us

The deviation this week is 47.62, the lowest reading we have seen in this entire dataset. This is very important. A low deviation means managers are all thinking the same thing right now. There is very little disagreement. The most bearish manager this week is at zero, meaning simply not invested but not short either. The most bullish is at 200, fully leveraged. The middle 50% of managers sit between 87.50 and 100, meaning the bulk of professional active managers are between nearly fully invested and fully invested.

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

Educational Content

FH Volume Trader Youtube Channel

Weekly ES Market Plan 25/29 May - Auction Analysis, Options Positioning & COT Report Analysis

Fri, 22 May 2026 22:57:00 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

In the newsletter I posted on Saturday, one key level I mentioned going into the new week was 7447, the previous week’s VWAP closing price, alongside auction market theory utilising the market profile. My main component is the VWAP, specifically where it closed. I use the market profile to eye up my competition and who I am competing against, I use volume profile to see where big money was transacted and I execute off VWAP. VWAP is the true supply and demand of the market, it represents the true average price of where participants are positioned. I mainly anchor VWAPs to swing highs and swing lows, the previous week and so on and so forth. When I use the market profile I am looking for institutional activity, where value is building and how the profile structure unfolds.

In Mondays session, 7447 the previous weeks VWAP closing price and 7441 Fridays M period spike base were of real interest to me. Pre market I mentioned these levels to the discord, I said…

“Good morning everyone, today I am going to be paying close attention to the swing high AVWAP and Fridays M period spike base 7441. Acceptance below 7441 can target 7427, below 7427 we can look at the overnight low where they found support at the monthly VWAP 380ish. Above 7450 we can look to target 7463, above 7463 we can look at 7478.”

We got exactly this. Price rejected at the 7447 reference mentioned in the newsletter, once bulls lost 7427 during D period price did not manage to reclaim. Sellers made a huge effort to push price lower and for now they got their reward, which is rare. As I say many times to other traders I talk markets with, bears never ever get anything easy in this market, so when they do the moves get super violent. As a market profile trader I can prepare myself for these sorts of scenarios.

Once taught to me… a short covering rally actually weakens an uptrend and a long liquidation weakens a downtrend. When a market is rising, short sellers who are offside start buying back their positions to cut their losses. That buying pushes price higher and it looks like strength, but there is a problem with this. That buying has nothing to do with conviction. It is not bulls opening new positions because they believe in the move, it is bears panicking and closing trades they got wrong. The moment those shorts are covered that demand starts to dry up, unless a new influx of fresh buyers come into the market, which can obviously happen, but the odds are not in favour of this. The rally was essentially borrowing from future demand that no longer exists, so what looked like a strong uptrend was actually being propped up by involuntary buyers who have zero interest in holding. Now that does not mean price cannot go higher after a short covering rally, but it is certainly alarm bells and something to watch closely in the coming sessions.

Long liquidation works exactly the same way in reverse. When a market is selling off, long holders start dumping their positions to stop the bleeding. Price flushes and it looks like a strong downtrend, but again there is no real conviction behind it. Bears are not aggressively pressing new shorts, bulls are just running for the exit, they are offside. Once the weak longs are flushed out that selling pressure dries up, the move tends to stall, we balance, and the profile begins to take the shape of a lowercase b.

A healthy trend needs the right side of the trade opening, not just the wrong side closing. A real uptrend is sustained by fresh longs coming in, a real downtrend is sustained by fresh shorts being added. When a move is being driven by covering or liquidation you are watching an exhaustion move, not a trend with legs. This is logical, and one of the best things we can do as traders is remain objective. If price moves higher I want to know if it is healthy, and the same applies when price is moving down.

This is exactly why market profile is such a valuable tool for understanding this. Price alone will not tell you who is doing the buying or selling, but market profile shows you where the market is accepting or rejecting value and whether the activity behind a move reflects genuine participation or just trapped traders getting out. That context changes everything about how you read a trend.

Two Fridays ago, last Monday and the Thursday just gone all produced P shaped profiles, with last Fridays profile forming a D shape showing acceptance below Thursdays distribution. This is where I smell weakness. The moment price imbalances to the downside I have my thesis, I have my trade, I have my bias, I have my levels, I simply execute when I am required to…

Moving back to Mondays session, during M period price rallied from 7393 back to 7428 very quickly, causing a spike. 7428 being the rally high, this level is something we can reference going into tomorrows session. With the spike occurring so late in the trading day we simply did not have enough time to find out whether the participants who caused this spike got accepted higher. The rule of thumb here is, if we open below the spike I would be looking at this as a resistance level, if we open above it we can be logical and say price got accepted, and we can look to frame longs, whether that is a retest that holds or a level above if we do not get the retest.

Tuesday opened below Monday’s M period spike, with a gap down, and price began to sell off after A period rejected the full session VWAP. After B period’s selloff, price began to consolidate below Monday’s low. A mechanical rally towards the previous day’s VWAP closing price at 7412 was not enough to sustain the auction at higher prices, with price flushing all the way into the close. Heading into Wednesday, it will was crucial for bulls to gain acceptance above Tuesday’s half back and VWAP closing price at 7385. This would keep the bull train alive. And bulls did exactly that. A period attempted to push lower, but sellers stalled below and got trapped in the process. B period swept A period’s low, releasing shorts from their positions and forcing them to cover, forming a P shaped profile into the close. Price found resistance at the weekly level of 7447.

Heading into Thursday I mentioned..

“ Going into Thursday’s session, it will be crucial for bulls to defend the pullback low of this move higher at 7424. This level also marks the balance low of this distribution, as well as Wednesday’s initial balance high. Holding this level would put 7450 and 7475 in play, while losing it opens the door back down to 7400 and 7385. “

Thursday mornings price action was choppy and non-directional, with shorts getting too aggressive at Wednesday’s single prints around 7412, which is exactly where price found support. Shorts got trapped again. Price reclaimed 7424 and rallied to the upside, hitting all targets in the process. Before this occurred though there was a tight consolidation between the weekly settlement and weekly close 7432/7418, before price dipped into the 7412 single prints and rallied..

Personally, I used 7424 as a target and held a runner to around 7415 after spotting bears getting absorbed at the initial balance low, a massive bear trap that triggered a short squeeze into the afternoon. RTH managed to close above the weekly level at 7447, leaving bulls with the task of defending it.

Friday’s session was relatively uneventful, which was to be expected heading into a holiday weekend with volume running notably thin. Price opened above Thursday’s high, carried by a strong overnight session. Early on, price tapped into Thursday’s selling tail base at 7479 and pushed up to the all time high balance low at 7509, however the market failed to attract buyers at those levels and reversed into the close, settling back within Friday’s balance. With light participation, there was little conviction on either side and the session was largely one to observe rather than trade.

Overall, a fairly bullish week despite a bearish start. The weekly level at 7447 proved to be the pivotal line for the entire auction, with bears in control below it early in the week before bulls took over and defended it convincingly...

Looking at this week’s profile as a whole, the auction has produced a b shaped distribution. Now this is worth paying close attention to, because context matters enormously when reading a b shaped profile. In a bearish week, a b shape typically signals long liquidation, with trapped longs being forced out of their positions as price flushes lower. However, in a bullish week like this one, the same profile tells a very different story. The bottom heavy volume is more consistent with absorption of selling pressure, meaning buyers were quietly stepping in and soaking up sellside throughout the week… Bears made their attempt to push the market lower and failed..

With that in mind, the balance high of this week’s distribution at 7449 becomes the key inflection point heading into next week. Fresh buyers must continue to enter the market to sustain any move higher. I will also be keeping a close eye on the 4 hour pullback low at 7410, a level that has acted as both support and resistance multiple times over the past couple of weeks and remains highly relevant..

Holding above 7449 puts 7509, 7531 and 7550 in play. Losing 7448 opens the door back down to 7410, 7385 and 7346.

This is a composite 2 week Profile, Balance High at 7459.. Big level to monitor if price taps our weekly level 7449 and can’t get back above 7459 then we would obviously look to take the other direction.. as a mean reversion back towards the HVN 7425..

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | May 19, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

Non-Commercials, Hedge Funds and Large Speculators

These are people betting with their own money trying to profit. They do NOT use futures to hedge a real business.

Long, 274,379 contracts, 9.1% of open interest
Short, 394,070 contracts, 13.1% of open interest
Spreading, 674,846 contracts, 22.4% of open interest

What this tells us. These guys are NET SHORT by about 119,691 contracts. The smart money speculators are leaning bearish on the S&P 500. From last week they added 11,671 longs and 9,891 shorts, so both sides grew slightly but the bearish bias did not change. Spreading means they are simultaneously long AND short in different contract months, essentially hedging themselves while keeping their directional bet intact.

Commercials, The Hedgers

These are the biggest players in the market. Banks, institutions, asset managers and corporations that use futures to protect their business exposure, not to speculate.

Long, 1,754,334 contracts, 58.2% of open interest
Short, 1,725,336 contracts, 57.2% of open interest

What this tells us. Commercials are essentially balanced, which is normal for this group. However from last week they reduced longs by 27,239 and shorts by 24,332, meaning they pulled back from both sides fairly equally. They are not making a strong directional statement, they are simply managing risk as they always do. When this group starts leaning heavily one way it is worth paying attention, but right now they are neutral.

Non-Reportables, Retail Traders

Positions too small to meet the reporting threshold, essentially everyday retail traders like most people reading this.

Long, 313,118 contracts, 10.4% of open interest
Short, 222,425 contracts, 7.4% of open interest

What this tells us. Retail is NET LONG by about 90,693 contracts. From last week retail reduced longs by 4,098 and shorts by 5,224, so both sides trimmed slightly. Retail leaning long while the smart money speculators lean short is a classic setup. This does not mean retail is wrong, but historically when these two groups are on opposite sides of the trade, it is a good reference..

Total open interest sits at 3,016,677 contracts and dropped by 83,286 from last week. Money is leaving the market across the board, with a holiday Monday coming up it is likely participants are simply not willing to carry heavy risk into a long weekend, which is completely normal behaviour. The large speculators are net short, retail is net long, and overall participation is declining.

Net GEX is sitting at 10.32 billion, which is positive overall. This tells us the options market is currently in a regime that favours stability and range bound behaviour rather than explosive directional moves. Heading into a holiday Monday with positive net GEX, the market has a natural gravitational pull keeping it contained.

The most important takeaway is this. Price is currently sandwiched between 7517 above and 7475 below. A clean hold and push above 7517 opens up significantly less dealer resistance all the way toward 7550 and beyond. A breakdown below 7475 flips us into negative gamma and suddenly the dealers become your enemy on the way down, accelerating any selling pressure toward 7417 and 7392. These levels align almost perfectly with our technical and COT analysis, which gives them even more weight heading into next week.

NAAIM Report, What Active Fund Managers Are Doing Week Ending May 20, 2026

First, what is NAAIM. The National Association of Active Investment Managers surveys its members every week and asks them one simple question, how exposed are you to the stock market right now. The answer is a number. Zero means completely out of the market, 100 means fully invested long, 200 means leveraged long, and negative numbers mean they are actually short. This gives us a real window into how professional active managers are positioning..

A reading of 82.02 means the average active fund manager is roughly 82% long the market right now. That is good bullish positioning. To put it in context, look at where this number was just two months ago.

03/18/2026, 60.24, managers were cautious, only 60% exposed
04/01/2026, 68.36, slowly rebuilding confidence
04/08/2026, 69.38, still hesitant
04/22/2026, 94.15, nearly fully invested as the market rallied
05/06/2026, 96.67, peak bullishness, almost everyone fully long
05/13/2026, 77.34, pulled back sharply as the market wobbled
05/20/2026, 82.02, recovering, managers buying back in

The deviation number measures how spread out the opinions are among managers. A high deviation means managers are all over the place, some very bullish, some very bearish, big disagreement. A low deviation means most managers are thinking alike.

This week the deviation is 55.01, which is relatively moderate. It has come down from 68.17 last week, meaning managers are starting to align more in their thinking. The most bearish manager this week is at -100, meaning fully short, while the most bullish is at 200, fully leveraged long. The middle 50% of managers sit between 69 and 100, which tells us the majority are bullish..

What this chart tells us beautifully is the story of 2026 so far. Managers got very cautious early in the year, exposure dropped sharply, the market sold off hard. Then as price recovered, managers chased it all the way back up to nearly fully invested by early May. When the market wobbled in mid May they pulled back again, and now they are rebuilding exposure as the market stabilises…

The key thing to understand here is that at 82.02, there is still room for managers to add. They are not maxed out. If the market clears 7517 and holds, expect this number to push back toward 90 and above as managers chase performance into the summer. That incremental buying from professional money adding exposure is another tailwind for bulls heading into next week..

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Weekly ES Market Plan 18/22 May - Auction Analysis & COT Report Analysis

Sat, 16 May 2026 13:12:45 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Heading into the new week, Friday’s balance area served as the primary reference point, with its P-shaped profile suggesting short covering activity, raising the question of how much buying energy remained. Sunday’s ETH session opened with a gap that was immediately bought, pulling price straight back into Friday’s balance area at 7411/7423. This set the stage for Monday’s RTH open.

For bulls to maintain momentum, reclaiming the 7424 level, highlighted in last week’s newsletter was essential. They got the job done. Monday’s RTH open was strong, with bulls reclaiming Friday’s BH at 7423/24 with conviction. C period offered the first test… a pullback to the 7424 level gave traders a long entry opportunity, this gave some kick for the bulls and was enough to push through the IBH at 7442 by the end of the period.

F & G periods made poor highs, I period followed through, taking out those poor highs and printing a new ATH at 7454.75. L period then pulled back precisely to Friday’s high (7427.75), with L’s low printing at 7427.50 forming a poor low. M period’s low held 1 tick above it.

With sellers appearing around the 7450s near ES’s All time highs, the bias heading into Tuesday was tilted to the downside. Monday’s pullback low was marked as the key level to monitor for the session. That level didn’t hold. During the overnight session, price broke below and retested it before dipping further, confirming the bearish near-term tone.

The primary target was a 2 day CVA from Wednesday and Thursday of the prior week an untested structure that had been on the radar. Within that zone, I liked the look off 7364.. the 2D POC, which aligned precisely with the 100% initial balance downside extension, a clean double confluence.

Adding further conviction, statistical context supported the level… roughly price trades below it only 1 out of 10 times, making it a high-probability reaction zone. Not only that, but we also had a swing low AVWAP reference to go from.. Price tapped 7364, leaving a poor low in the process… From there, bulls stepped in decisively, erasing the session’s entire selloff and reclaiming all of the ground sellers had gained throughout the day.

Following Tuesday’s bear trap at the swing low AVWAP reference, price found its footing and launched a sustained rally into Wednesday’s session. The move was strong, with minimal pullbacks along the way, a sign of genuine buying conviction rather than a short squeeze.. That momentum carried forward into Thursday’s session, where bulls pressed price to a fresh all time high, printing 7540 and marking a significant milestone in relative to where we was in March..

Mentioned on Thursday…

“Heading into Friday.. On the bull side, the key reference to watch was the H period pullback low at 7507. As long as buyers can defend that level on any dip, the path of least resistance remains higher and the trend stays firmly in their favour. A hold above 7507 would signal that dip buyers remain active and that the broader upside structure is intact.

The bears, however, have their own case to make. A sustained push below 7480, which represents both Thursday’s low and Wednesday’s high, would shift the narrative considerably. A break below it would open the door to a more meaningful corrective move, potentially inviting fresh selling pressure and squeezing out any late longs caught chasing the highs.”

And that’s exactly what happened.

Friday’s overnight session immediately sold off with a break and retest below Thursday’s halfback and H period’s pullback low. This invited sellers to press, breaking Thursday’s low at 7480. Once that low was broken, sellers got aggressive, pushing price to the downside and repairing Wednesday’s poor structure in the process. Wednesday’s F period excess high at 7459 acted as strong resistance for a large portion of Friday’s session. Buyers, however, made a case for higher prices with a break above, but the swing high AVWAP trapped bulls. This was enough to strip away the gains bulls had made early in the session, with A period breaking the overnight low and trapping late sellers at the start of that session. That low was broken and the session closed at the lows.

The question is, do bulls have much more left in them? Over the past few weeks we have been one time framing up, a historical rally that we likely won’t see again for a long time. The real question is whether this is a pullback, or whether we have seen a top. Today’s session would have been alarm bells for bulls, but if I’m being honest, bears still have a lot of work to do. If bears can break below 7185 at any point, you could argue a case for them, but currently bulls remain firmly in control.

One thing that stands out to me is that the may 4th swing low AVWAP is resting right at the weekly BL around 7400, which is going to be a strong level heading into next week.. I believe bulls will need to defend this level or risk being caught offside, I am expecting a test off 7300s if that level gets broken going into next week, however a strong hold off 7400 going into next week would signal strong buyers still willing to continue in this historical rally..

When analysing the Daily Bar chart, Fridays session closed below the 5 day moving average with the next structural support being the monthly VWAP, if buyers cannot hold the VWAP reference going into next week, we could see a test of 7300.. As we can see, ES looks like a meme coin rally.. one of the most one sided auctions I have ever seen..

Next weeks levels is going to be the Weekly VWAP closing price 7447, when we look at market structure, this was once resistance then turned support, now resistance once more.. with the 5 day moving average also around this area, bulls will want to establish acceptance above this early in the week, or the short term trend could be to the downside. If price manages to gain acceptance above we could be looking at another trending week, acceptance below I am looking at 7375 as targets. Above I am looking to target 7500/7550.

My honest lean for next week.. mildly bearish to neutral.

The move up was too fast, too vertical, and now both the big money futures traders and the NAAIM managers are starting to show cracks in conviction, keep reading and you will see the COT Analysis.. and at the exact same time the chart is stalling under the 5MA. That is 3 different data sets all telling the same story...

However brothers, I would not be aggressively short, because the trend off the lows is powerful and fighting it is dangerous, in fact its stupid.. Just because reports show a bearish tone, doesn’t mean our bias is bearish, we let the auction tell us its bullish or bearish, This is why I love the Market profile, its telling us a story and its our job to interpret this correctly and use it to become profitable traders..

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | May 12, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us this week..

The Three Groups of Players

Non-Commercials, (Hedge Funds, Large Traders)

These are people betting with their own money trying to profit. They do NOT use futures to hedge a real business.

Long, 262,708 contracts, 8.5% of open interest
Short, 384,179 contracts, 12.4% of open interest
Spreading, 738,466 contracts, 23.8% of open interest

What this tells us.. These guys are NET SHORT by about 121,471 contracts. That means the smart money speculators are leaning bearish on the S&P 500. Spreading means they are simultaneously long AND short in different contract months, essentially hedging themselves.

Commercials, (Banks, Asset Managers, Institutions)

These are the big big players.. Pension funds, banks, asset managers who own actual stocks and use futures to protect their portfolios.

Long, 1,781,573 contracts, 57.5% of open interest
Short, 1,749,667 contracts, 56.4% of open interest

What this tells us.. They are nearly balanced but slightly NET LONG by about 31,906 contracts. This is the biggest group by far, controlling over half the entire market on both sides. They are mostly hedging existing stock portfolios, not making outright bets.

Non-Reportables, (Small Retail Traders)

Anyone too small to hit the reporting threshold. Regular people, small funds, retail traders.

Long, 317,216 contracts, 10.2% of open interest
Short, 227,650 contracts, 7.3% of open interest

What this tells us.. Small traders are NET LONG by about 89,566 contracts. Retail is bullish. Historically, when retail is heavily long, contrarians take note because small traders are often on the wrong side.

What Changed Week Over Week, from May 5 to May 12?

Total open interest grew by 170,014 contracts, meaning new money flooded in.

Non-Commercials added 8,554 longs and 40,736 shorts.. they got MORE bearish

Commercials added 72,858 longs and 48,868 shorts.. they added more protection both ways

Small traders added 15,905 longs and 7,712 shorts.. retail got more bullish

The “Concentration” Section, Bottom of the Report

This shows how much power the biggest traders hold.

The 4 largest traders control 15.1% of longs and 19.4% of shorts by gross position
The 8 largest traders control 21.7% of longs and 32.6% of shorts

What this tells us.. The short side is more concentrated than the long side. A small number of very large players are holding a significant chunk of the bearish bets.

So what does this mean in simple terms?

Big speculators are bearish and getting more bearish. Retail is bullish. The institutional hedgers are neutral and just protecting portfolios. New money is pouring into the market overall.

One week ago, professional money managers were essentially in unanimous agreement.. get long, stay long. The NAAIM number sat at 96.67 with some of the lowest disagreement we have seen all year. Everyone was on the same side of the boat.

Then SPX pulled back, and that consensus took a hit?.

This week the average dropped nearly 20 points to 77.34, and the deviation, which measures how much managers disagree with each other, exploded to 68.17.. the highest reading in this entire dataset. That combination, a sharp drop in the average AND a spike in disagreement at the same time, is the market equivalent of alarms going off in a crowded room. Some people are walking calmly to the exit. Others are running. And a few are still sitting in their seats insisting everything is fine… Who’s going to be right? Remember this is subjective and short sellers do often get squeezed, please use this data and newsletter with your objective view.

However.. what makes this more than just noise in my opinion is what is happening beneath the surface in the COT Report at the same time. The COT report shows that large speculators, the hedge funds and professional traders who bet with their own capital, added over 40,000 new short positions in a single week. They were already net short, and they just leaned harder into that bet..

So you have two completely separate groups of professionals, NAAIM active managers on one side and futures speculators on the other, both independently signalling the same thing in the same week.. growing doubt about this rally, risk off? pullback?

Remember, Markets rarely top with everyone bearish. They top when the last buyer has already bought. Last week at 96.67, we may have just seen a glimpse of exactly that..

VOLUME PROFILE THEORY

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Weekly ES Market Plan 11/15 May - Auction Analysis, COT Report Analysis & Options Dealer Positioning Analysis

Sat, 09 May 2026 16:59:09 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Last week in Review

Overnight session formed acceptance below Friday’s RTH.. pre-market I marked out Friday’s IBL at 7259 as the key level for the session. A and B period opened bullish, slow grind up toward the overnight tPOC and Friday’s balance low, ATH AVWAP resting just above.. IBH formed at 7267. C period price tapped the ATH AVWAP and left an excess high, buyers got trapped.. that was the context. Short at the 263’s targeting the 243’s, pretty much the session IBL, we hit targets. D period sharp flush into a put wall, E period continued pressing lower.. D periods flush left a low volume node for the session, single prints unmitigated.

Mondays TPO Profile

Monday’s open rejected Friday’s auction balance low and spent the day seeking new value lower. One thing to take away from this session was the 5 day composite profiles POC migrated higher after Mondays session.. Following Monday’s session, which closed below Friday’s value area, the bears needed to defend the single prints from that session to maintain momentum, a level that conveniently aligned with the IBL at 7242. However, the bulls got aggressive in the overnight session... Overnight, price reclaimed that key zone, triggering an upside squeeze and signaling that a reversal was underway. By the time RTH opened, price was already trading above Monday’s balance area… a notably bullish development.

Tuesdays TPO Profile

From there, price tapped the overnight high, broke and retested Monday’s high, and continued pushing higher.. Although it was done on low volume and grinder, this is expected during these historically low volume months May/June..

Wednesday opened on a true gap up, immediately signalling bullish intent from the overnight session. As the day’s profile developed it became clear this was a trend continuation day.. Buyers were consistently stepping in on any minor dip, preventing any meaningful pullback to Tuesday’s or Monday’s value areas. With no return to prior value, there was no trade setup on the cards, which was the correct read.. no edge, no trade.

The key structural note to carry into Thursday is the poor high at 7395. A poor high forms when price fails to create a clean, rounded top, instead leaving a jagged or abrupt ceiling, signalling that the auction was interrupted rather than complete. This is the market leaving unfinished business overhead.

Wednesdays TPO Profile

Thursday’s overnight session printed a new all-time high at 7410, setting the tone with bulls firmly in control heading into RTH. The open saw price attempt to break the overnight all-time high, but the move failed to sustain. The session left a poor high and a poor low in Thursday’s session and a failed auction above both the initial balance high and the overnight high.. The two significant structural failures stacking on top of each other.

That weakness was enough to trigger a liquidation of longs. Price flushed lower aggressively, leaving the overnight all-time high at 7410 as unfinished business overhead.. Price did find some support at Wednesdays Balance Low at 7354, as shown in example below..

Fridays overnight session took out the poor low from Thursdays session and rallied all the way to Thursdays BH at 7389. With Thursdays session printing a b’ish shaped profile, I say ish because the profile is shaped b, but not a lot of time spent at the lower end of the distribution.. The main objective for bears was to defend the BH & gain acceptance below 7354 which was Wednesdays BL that was supported in Thursdays session. Bears failed to do so in Fridays session with ETH reclaiming 7389.. and RTH opening up a gap up and went onto print another new ATH at 7425ish.. Forming a P shaped profile in the process. Price mainly traded within the upper end of distribution between 7410 and 7423.

Fridays Overnight Session Split TPO & Fridays RTH

The Weekly Context.

Bulls continue to surprise.. and they are not stopping, the dips are getting more shallow each time. The question is where are the best trade locations going into next week? This would be 2 set ups I would like to concentrate most of my week around,

With price continuing in a straight line an open inside the range holds no interest. Two specific scenarios are worth watching next week everything else is noise.

Set up 1 — Short below Friday’s balance low (A+)

The only set up I would like to explore from Friday’s balance area requires a break below Friday’s BL at 7411. This would signal short-term weakness, with the first target at the 2D CVA at 7387. From there I will monitor the situation when that level is tested to determine whether I would like to add into the position, targeting the lower end of the 2-day balance built across Wednesday and Thursday’s session, which stands at 7346.

Set up 2 — Long above Friday’s balance high (B+)

If price breaks above Friday’s BH at 7423, which aligns with the SPX 7000 Call Wall… and we form acceptance above that level with sellers struggling to break back below, this would be my other set up to watch. I would deem this a B+ set up, making it secondary in conviction to Set up 1.

No trade of interest on an open inside Friday’s balance. Both set ups require their trigger to be met before any engagement.

COT Report Breakdown | E-Mini S&P 500 | April 28, 2026

Each group behaves differently and tells a different story.

Here is what this week’s report is telling us.

Non-Commercials (Hedge Funds / Speculators)

These are the most watched group. They trade purely for profit with no underlying exposure to hedge.

They are sitting at 254,154 longs vs 343,443 shorts, making them net short by roughly 89,000 contracts. That is a significant bearish bet. However this week they added 12,105 longs and only 5,179 shorts, meaning they are slowly trimming that bearish position. They are not flipping bullish yet, but the direction of change is worth noting. They represent 8.7% of open interest on the long side and 11.7% on the short side.

Commercials (Banks / Institutions / Hedgers)

These are the people who actually own the underlying stocks and use futures to protect themselves. Because of this, they are almost always on the opposite side to speculators, and that is exactly what we see here.

They hold a massive 1,708,715 longs vs 1,700,799 shorts, making them essentially flat, with a very slight net long of about 7,900 contracts. They added 3,081 longs and 5,726 shorts this week, nudging them slightly more short. They dominate the market, representing 58.3% of open interest on the long side and 58% on the short side. Because their positioning is driven by hedging rather than speculation, it tells us less about direction, but their sheer size means they are the anchor of this market.

Non-Reportable (Small Retail Traders)

These are positions too small to meet the reporting threshold… essentially retail traders and small funds.

They hold 301,311 longs vs 219,937 shorts.. making them net long by about 81,000 contracts. Retail is bullish. They added just 7 longs and 4,288 shorts this week, which is interesting.. a small but notable addition to shorts suggesting some retail traders are starting to get nervous or hedge.

They represent 10.3% of open interest long and 7.5% short.

Largest Traders Concentration (bottom section)

This tells you how much of the market the very biggest players control.

The top 4 traders on the short side control 19.9% of all open interest by gross position, and the top 8 control 32.4%. On the long side the top 4 control just 14.4% and top 8 control 21.1%. This tells you short side concentration is meaningfully higher than the long side.. a small number of very large players are responsible for a disproportionate amount of the bearish positioning.

Putting it all together… smart money speculators are net short and still carry a large bearish position despite trimming slightly this week. Retail is net long... The largest traders are more concentrated on the short side than the long. The overall weight of evidence from this report leans bearish… but again, that doesn’t mean that price action will be bearish, it just means that the big dogs are adding into shorts, that could be due to hedging.. let price tell the story..

OPTIONS DEALER POSITIONING

Biggest Call Wall — 7424.05 ($5.27B)

This is the single most important level on the board right now. A Call Wall means there is an enormous amount of call options sitting at this level. Dealers who sold those calls are short gamma here, which means as price approaches 7424 they are forced to sell futures to hedge, this actively resists price moving higher. This is essentially a ceiling. Notice this almost perfectly aligns with the Friday BH trigger at 7423… A break and acceptance above it would be significant because it means dealers have to flip and start buying, which accelerates the move. Until that happens, it acts as a cap..

Biggest Put Wall — 7024.05 (-$1.48B)

A massive concentration of put options sits at 7024. Dealers are long gamma here, meaning as price falls toward this level they buy futures to hedge, This can act as temporary support if price approaches. It is a long way from current price so it is not immediately relevant for next week, but it tells you where the real structural support lives if things change..

Max Pain — 7399.05

Max Pain is the price level where the most options contracts expire worthless, meaning it is the level where option buyers lose the most money and option sellers (dealers) make the most. Markets have a known tendency to gravitate toward max pain as expiration approaches. At 7399, this sits just below current price and just below your Friday balance. This supports the idea that the path of least resistance into expiry is slightly lower…

Gamma Flip — 6614.76

This is the level where dealer hedging behaviour completely flips. Above 6614 dealers are net long gamma… meaning they buy dips and sell rips, which keeps the market calm and range-bound. Below 6614 they go net short gamma.. meaning they sell into drops and buy into rips, which amplifies moves and causes volatility to spike. You are well above this level right now so the market is in a stable, dampened regime. This is why you are seeing the relatively controlled price action.

Delta Flip — 6956.45

This is where the overall dealer delta exposure changes from net long to net short. Above 6956 dealers are net long delta, meaning they have a natural bullish hedge. This acts as a broader support zone. Again well below current price, confirming dealers are structurally supportive of prices at these levels from a delta perspective..

Expected Move High — 7501.79

This is the options market’s implied upper boundary for the current expiry cycle. It is essentially the market saying there is roughly a 68% chance price stays below this level. It gives you the upper range of what is considered a normal move. Its a potential upside target if the 7423 Call Wall breaks..

Expected Move Low — 7344.17

This is the implied lower boundary, the market pricing in a 68% chance price stays above this level. Critically, this almost perfectly aligns with the Target 2 at 7346 from the trade plan stated in this newsletter... That is a really good confluence. The options market and our price structure analysis are pointing at the exact same level as the downside boundary…

Everything in this data supports our trade plan with remarkable precision. The Call Wall at 7424 is the long trigger. Max Pain at 7399 gravitates price slightly lower… The Expected Move Low at 7344 confirms 7346 target as a structural support in regards to options positioning.. The market is in a pretty stable gamma regime above 6614… which means if the short triggers, expect a controlled grind toward 7387 and then 7346, not a crash.. nothing suggests the market is about to crash.. unless we have a catalyst..

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Weekly ES Market Plan 04/08 May - Volume Profile & Options Dealer Positioning

Sun, 03 May 2026 11:55:21 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

FH VWAP METHOD

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

Weekly TPO Profile Review

Bias remains bullish.. There are multiple single prints below current price, each presenting high-quality trading opportunities heading into the week. Whether we open above or below these prints, they are significant levels to watch historically acting as reliable support or resistance and offering clean, defined setups..

Profile Shape — b - Shaped: Price closed near the highs of the weekly range, which is a good sign as we know, a bullish weekly candle with a b shaped profile often signals sellers were repeatedly absorbed on downside attempts, leaving a concentration of inventory resting at the lower end of the weekly profile. This is a constructive development..

As a rule, bullish b-shaped profiles should hold as support on any retest. A failure to do so would represent a meaningful shift in behaviour and a potential warning sign for the broader uptrend, valuable information the market is giving us, and something well worth monitoring closely..

Weekly Market Profile | Volume Profile | Delta profile

Last Week in Review

Last week, ES futures entered a period of consolidation — and that was entirely expected. Following the explosive bullish move we witnessed two weeks prior, the market needed time to breathe. What we saw was a two-way auction, a process where buyers and sellers come together to agree on fair value at a given price level. Neither side was in full control although bulls clearly had the upper hand after the prior weeks move.. , and that balance is exactly what consolidation looks like. The critical question heading into last week was simple, could price hold within this consolidation range? Price then broke out in Thursdays session, pushing up to test the 7,300 level during Fridays session. To put that into perspective, ES futures were trading as low as 6,350ish during the March lows.

That is a 1,000ish point rally in a remarkably short period of time..

As price probed the 7,300 region, sellers began to show their hand, we can see this on the Market profile with B periods selling tail, E period attempted another push up but failed… leaving an excess tail at the highs, which signals responsive sellers at those prices.. This too is completely normal. After a rally of this magnitude, it would be unusual not to see some responsive selling at elevated levels. The key now is what happens next..

Daily Market Profiles | Volume Profiles | Delta Profiles

ES rallied just shy off 1,000 points from the March lows (6,350ish) to test 7,300 — one of the most significant short-term moves in recent memory.

Understanding Consolidation

For those newer to reading market structure, consolidation can feel frustrating, like the market is doing nothing. But in reality, consolidation is one of the most important phases a market goes through, and understanding it can give you a significant edge. When a large move occurs whether bullish or bearish, the market rarely continues in a straight line. Instead, it pauses. During this pause, buyers and sellers are actively transacting at similar price levels, building what we call an area of acceptance. This is accumulation. Both sides are positioning themselves for the next move, and the market is essentially gathering energy. Here is what typically happens during a consolidation phase, and what you should be watching for..

1. False Breakdown - Price dips below the consolidation range, triggering stop losses and shaking out weak hands. It then snaps back inside. This is a trap for sellers.

2. False Breakout - Price pushes above the consolidation range, triggering breakout buyers. It then reverses back inside. This is a trap for buyers.

3. More Consolidation - The market continues to build acceptance, often frustrating traders on both sides who are waiting for a decisive move.

4. The Real Move - Once the market has done its work, it breaks out or breaks down with conviction. This is the move that traders who understood the consolidation were positioned for. The trap most traders fall into is reacting to the false moves. They sell the breakdown, get stopped out on the recovery, then buy the breakout, only to get stopped out on the reversal. By the time the real move happens, they are either out of the market or trading in the wrong direction. Patience and structure are everything.

The Week Ahead — What to Watch

Heading into this coming week, the most important thing to monitor is whether ES futures can hold the single prints left behind on the rally up to 7,300. Single prints represent areas where the market moved quickly and efficiently.. where very little business was done. These levels act as magnets.

Price will often return to test them, and how it responds at those levels will tell us a great deal aboutthe strength of this move. If price holds above these single prints and buyers defend them, it is a strong signal that the market wants to continue higher. If price breaks back through them without holding, we may be entering a deeper retracement before any further upside continuation.

Weekly ES Market Plan 27/01 April/May - Volume Profile & Options Dealer Positioning

Sat, 25 Apr 2026 23:06:38 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

FH VWAP METHOD

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

MARKET RECAP & CONTEXT

After last week’s one-sided auction, it was always expected that price would need some time to digest such an unusual move. And if I’m being honest here, last week’s rally was one of the most impressive we are likely to see for a very long time. In all my trading years this has to rank as one of the most one-sided auctions I have witnessed, so coming into this week it was always going to be about how the market chose to digest that move.

The concern for bulls was straightforward.. weakness would have seen us trade below last week’s LVN around 7080/7,100’ish. But every attempt by the bears to push below that level was met with immediate buying. This week saw two-sided trade for the most part, with Monday through Thursday largely contained within the 7,100 to 7,185 range, before Friday changed the tone entirely. Buyers broke out of the multi-day balance area and price tagged 7,200 on the breakout, settling at 7,194 into the close… which is a solid finish to the week.

The main objective for bulls going forward is to avoid trading back under the 7,150s, a level that saw price constantly flip-flopping between support and resistance throughout the week. This is an important area to keep a close eye on heading into next week, and it carries additional weight given that 7,147 is also where the weekly VWAP closed… a confluence that makes it a meaningful line in the sand.

When we look at how this week’s profile developed, Monday through Thursday produced a D-shaped profile, reflecting two-sided trade where buyers and sellers were content to do business in that range. Healthy, balanced auction that told you the market was genuinely digesting last week’s move…

Daily Bars | Weekly Profiles | YTD Profile

Sellers made an attempt to push below the overnight balance low in Fridays session.. but quickly ran out of steam, and buyers took control with a rally into the end of the week. That move left a small distribution area at the top of the profile with noticeably thin volume below.. the result of Friday’s E-period excess single prints in the 7,177 to 7,182.75 range. This area of inefficiency is the first thing to watch when price comes back to test it.

The geopolitical backdrop also helped. Trump’s extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire earlier in the week had already improved sentiment, and by Friday the market was running on a combination of positive earnings momentum and easing tensions.

With tensions in the Middle East still ongoing and many larger investors remaining underinvested, the question that matters most going into the coming weeks is a simple one… if and when we get meaningful positive news on the conflict, how far can this rally extend before a correction comes?

GDP growth is slowing, Q4 came in at just 1%, and inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target , so the macro backdrop is not without its complications. But the earnings picture is holding up better than many expected, and with big money still sitting on the sidelines, any sustained improvement in sentiment has the potential to push prices considerably further before we see a meaningful pullback..

Weekly ES Market Plan 20/24 April - Volume Profile & Options Dealer Positioning

Sun, 19 Apr 2026 16:44:00 GMT

Important Note to Potential Future Paid Subscribers.

My service is not a signal service. Simply copying my trades will not help you grow as a trader. Trading is about personal development, discipline, and learning to adapt.

FH VWAP METHOD

MARKET PROFILE REFERENCES

TPO Letters

A - 09:30 – 10:00, B - 10:00 – 10:30, C - 10:30 – 11:00, D - 11:00 – 11:30, E - 11:30 – 12:00, F - 12:00 – 12:30, G - 12:30 – 13:00, H - 13:00 – 13:30, I - 13:30 – 14:00, J - 14:00 – 14:30, K - 14:30 – 15:00, L - 15:00 – 15:30, M - 15:30 – 16:00

Volume Profile - Monthly & Weekly Auction Analysis

ES futures broke to new all-time highs this week, printing an ATH of 7185.75 and closing the week at 7164.25… near the top of the weekly range. The catalyst was a combination of positive developments around the Iran situation and a powerful short squeeze.. Monday’s gap down was bought immediately in the overnight session, trapping short sellers from Friday and igniting a relentless short-covering rally that set the tone for the entire week.

The dominant pattern throughout was consistent.. strong bullish bursts followed by brief pauses, then another leg higher. Pullbacks were shallow and got bought almost immediately, most notably at the session VWAP.. The weekly profile reflects this, closing with thin volume and little time spent at any single level. We’re in uncharted territory now, with no established value above the YTD VAH around 7020’ish.