Possibility means something can happen (whether it is likely or not), whereas probability is a mathematical measure of how likely it is to actually occur. That also means that while every possible event may be probable, many possible events are highly improbable.

One key distinction is that preparedness is not just about probability; it is about the intersection of probability, impact, and personal vulnerability. Tsunamis are possible and deadly, but if you live in the foothills of Alberta, there is absolutely no risk of experiencing one. Just saying.

A winter storm that knocks out power for three days may be a relatively common event. A global thermonuclear war is extraordinarily rare. Yet both share one characteristic: if they happen, being prepared beforehand matters far more than reacting afterward.

While catastrophic existential risks threaten humanity’s future, the calculated odds of these events occurring in any given year are generally less than 1 in 10,000. To illustrate the odds, consider that the lifetime risk of being struck by lightning is roughly 1 in 15,000 to 1 in 20,000 and the risk to anyone in any given year drops to about 1 in 1.2 million.

So, what are preppers worried about?

Here are the most widely cited existential threats and their estimated annual probabilities, as calculated in quantitative analyses by organizations such as Oxford University’s Global Priorities Project and the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.

Nuclear War: The risk of a global thermonuclear conflict between major nuclear powers has an annual probability of ~1 in 10,000 to 1 in 15,000 (0.01% – 0.006%)

Engineered Pandemic: The release or accidental escape of a highly lethal, transmissible synthetic pathogen has an annual probability of ~1 in 30,000 (0.003%)

Extreme Climate Change: Uncontrollable feedback loops resulting in runaway global warming, making large parts of the earth uninhabitable, have an Annual Probability of ~1 in 1,000 (0.1%)

Advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI): Loss of control over superintelligent systems, leading to human extinction or the displacement of humanity, has an annual probability of ~1 in 20,000 to 1 in 100,000 (0.005% – 0.001%)

Cosmic Impact: Collisions with massive asteroids or comets (similar to the extinction event that wiped out the dinosaurs) have an annual probability of ~1 in 1,000,000 (0.0001%)

Obviously, these numbers are only considered estimates with significant uncertainty attached to them, but on the other hand, they aren’t just numbers pulled out of the air by your cousin’s best friend Raphie or by Chadwick “The Truther” 547 on Instagram.

Are there risks and threats to our survival? Absolutely. But the proverbial alien invasion (with or without the body-snatching pod people) or the risk of extinct Velociraptors being bred in some subterranean bioengineering lab are pretty low. A worldwide economic meltdown? More than likely due to the billionaires manipulating the crypto markets, but that doesn’t explain the dreaded EMP scenario that will kill off the power grid. Ebola? You’re better off worrying about catching the common flu this winter. Hell, health organizations, such as the World Health Organization, estimate that seasonal influenza kills approximately 290,000 to 650,000 people worldwide every year.

But most people who keep extra food, own a generator, store water, or maintain emergency savings are responding to risks that occur with regularity. In fact, if you examine actual emergencies experienced by ordinary Canadians, the list is remarkably mundane:

• Extended power outages

• Severe winter storms

• Forest fire evacuations

• Flooding

• Supply-chain disruptions

• Job loss

• Inflation spikes

• Transportation interruptions

• Telecommunications outages

• Water contamination advisories

I think for most of us, the odds are highest that we will have to survive some natural disaster, such as a forest fire evacuation, maybe flooding along the Assiniboine River, or having hydro go off for an extended period due to downed hydro lines from a windstorm.

All of the provincial and federal emergency management organizations essentially advocate a form of “mainstream prepping.” Agencies encourage households to keep emergency kits, backup supplies, medications, flashlights, batteries, and evacuation plans. The difference is largely one of branding. When governments recommend 72-hour emergency kits, it is called emergency preparedness. When individuals store six months of food, it is called prepping.

Ultimately, the strongest argument for preparedness is not that a catastrophe is around the corner. It is that self-reliance provides benefits even when a catastrophe never arrives. A pantry reduces the need for grocery trips during storms. A generator keeps food from spoiling during outages. Emergency savings cushion job loss. First-aid skills help during everyday accidents. Extra water helps during boil-water advisories. In that sense, preparedness is less about surviving the apocalypse and more about increasing resilience against life’s inevitable disruptions.

I think that some of the newbies to the world of prepping are also here, trying to become more prepared, as a direct result of the threats being voiced by an ever-increasing imperialist foreign policy from the USA. Canadians are feeling more fearful for their security and sovereignty, given the economic strife with the USA and talk of annexation voiced by President Trump and his administration. The fear and worry about what could happen is more threatening and more real than any fear of aliens invading. Yes, I know it’s low probability, but then again, you can’t put anything past the Orange Cheeto anymore, and so, it goes into the possibility column. Just saying.

When a crisis occurs, and individuals must evacuate, outfitted in appropriate outdoor clothing with a bug-out bag (BOB), the importance of selecting suitable gear becomes evident as soon as their journey begins. This hypothetical scenario follows a five-mile trek into the wilderness near Paugh Lake, north of Barry’s Bay in the Madawaska Valley.

Personal preferences often influence gear selection; for example, at 69 years old, my inclination toward robust, durable equipment has recently been tempered by the practical realities of carrying additional weight over challenging terrain. Transporting loads exceeding thirty pounds can cause fatigue and increase the risk of injury, prompting consideration of lighter alternatives.

Regardless of age or physical condition, it is prudent to evaluate both the benefits and drawbacks of heavy versus ultralight gear. Durable items such as cast-iron frying pans offer longevity but are significantly heavier than modern titanium options—a Lodge 10” fry pan weighs approximately 2–2.5 kg (4.5–5.5 lbs), while a comparable titanium model is about 1,000g (2.2 lbs). This weight difference has substantial implications for efficiency and safety during portaging or rucking.

A comprehensive comparison of ten standard items—including sleeping bag, tarp, pot, pan, cup, water bottle, knife, axe, rope, and boots—reveals notable disparities between ultralight and traditional equipment. Ultralight gear prioritizes reduced weight through advanced materials, albeit at a higher cost, while heavy-duty gear emphasizes durability and affordability. Transitioning from canvas sleeping bags and conventional tarps to ultralight equivalents yields considerable weight savings, eliminating nearly 16 pounds from the “Big Three” items alone.

Although heavy-duty gear is renowned for its resilience, ultralight products like Dyneema tarps require careful handling due to their delicate construction. The significant reduction in weight can enhance mobility and safety, though the financial investment—the so-called “ultralight tax”—is considerable. Ultralight kits typically cost 3–5 times as much as their heavy-duty counterparts, reflecting the expense of specialized materials such as 950-fill down, Dyneema, and pure titanium. For example, a Dyneema tarp is 15 times lighter than canvas but six times more expensive.

In summary, ultralight gear averages approximately 5.5 lbs, compared to 39 lbs for heavy-duty gear. Cost-wise, ultralight sets range from $2,130, whereas heavy-duty options range from $450–$900.

For those who want to learn more about the Ultra-light world, here is a great starting point. Life of the Wanderlust

Ultimately, selecting appropriate gear involves balancing physical capability, budget, and situational needs. Alternatives such as utility poly tarps or midrange sleeping bags can offer practical compromises in both price and performance. Thoughtful decision-making is essential for optimizing outdoor preparedness. Happy humping.

The phrase “a prepper mindset and a survivalist skill set” captures an important distinction. A prepper mindset is about how you think. A survivalist skill set is about what you can do. The two complement one another. It is not an either-or proposition; it is the combination of both approaches that creates real resilience.

A prepper mindset begins with recognizing that unexpected events can occur and taking reasonable steps to reduce risk before they happen. It means thinking ahead rather than reacting after the fact. What risks are you most likely to face? What vulnerabilities exist in your life? What contingency plans can you develop to improve your odds of overcoming those challenges?

A prepper constantly asks questions such as: What if this fails? What are my alternatives? What resources will I need or have? And what is my backup plan?

For example, an experienced prepper does not simply buy a generator. They think through the entire problem before spending the time and money. How long will the fuel last? How much fuel should be stored? What happens when the fuel runs out? What are the critical power needs? What is the backup plan if the generator fails?

The survivalist skill set focuses on developing practical capabilities that allow a person to function when normal systems break down. It is not just about knowledge; it is about experience. Skills require practice until they become second nature. It starts with doing, not just thinking.

Walk your neighbourhood and identify potential water sources. What ponds, swimming pools, bird baths, or fire hydrants are available? Where could you find containers to transport water if necessary?

Open a package of water purification tablets or measure out the proper amount of bleach and purify a gallon of water yourself.

Plant a few vegetables in your backyard. Learn firsthand how much effort is required to produce food. Preserve some of that harvest and enjoy it later in the year.

Go fishing. Learn how to clean and cook the most common fish in your area. Build a fire and prepare a meal over it.

Find a spot in the woods and construct a simple emergency shelter. Practice CPR. Navigate without GPS using only a map and compass. Try it first in an urban setting and then in the bush.

These experiences teach lessons that no book or video can fully provide. The hands-on experience builds confidence and helps you identify your strengths and weaknesses.

Too many beginners focus on equipment. They become obsessed with buying the latest and greatest axe, sleeping bag, tarp, or survival gadget. If a $100 knife is good, they think the $500 Viking Tactical ZRT 4.3 with a Spartan Cut drop blade will be better.

A prepper-survivalist thinks differently. They ask, “If I lose this piece of equipment, what is my backup plan?” They understand that gear can be lost, broken, stolen, or exhausted. Knowledge and skills are far more difficult to take away.

A person with $10,000 worth of high-tech equipment and no practical experience may be less capable than someone carrying a cast-iron frying pan and a homemade fishing rod who knows how to gather food and solve problems. Knowledge weighs nothing, and skills require no batteries.

Preppers and survivalists also recognize that survival is conditional. No one can prepare for every possible scenario. The goal is not to be prepared for everything; it is to understand the fundamentals well enough to adapt when circumstances change.

If you can meet today’s needs, you gain the time and energy to think about tomorrow’s challenges.

Preparedness can be thought of as a triangle with three sides:

1. Mindset – The ability to recognize problems and adapt.

2. Skills – The ability to solve problems.

3. Resources – The tools and supplies that make solutions easier.

A prepper mindset teaches you to anticipate challenges. A survivalist skill set enables you to overcome them. Resources support both.

Together they create resilience—the ability to absorb disruption, adapt to changing circumstances, and continue functioning when others are struggling. If and when SHTF, you will need resilience, courage and conviction to survive and to ultimately thrive.

While having some dirt and sweat may be unavoidable, you need to take care of yourself. Wash your hands and brush your teeth. Careful handwashing is vital to prevent fecal matter from getting on food or in your mouth and spreading illness. Wash your armpits, in between your toes, and your genitals to prevent fungal infections and the spread of bacteria.

Like food, water, and shelter, hygiene concerns are an essential element of your preparation. Bacterial and fungal infections are difficult to treat in the wilderness, but with proper hygiene, they’re easy to prevent. As you pack your BOB bag, don’t forget to put a bar of floatable Ivory Soap.


You can read more here. https://www.offgridweb.com/preparation/survival-hygiene-wilderness-wash-up/

This special week is a national effort led by Public Safety Canada, provincial and territorial emergency management organizations, Indigenous organizations, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector.

I encourage you to learn about our role, as private citizens, in emergency response. By taking a few simple steps, you can become better prepared to face a range of emergencies – anytime, anywhere.

Know the risks – Although the consequences of disasters can be similar, knowing the risks specific to our community and our region can help you better prepare

Make a plan – It will help you and your family know what to do

Get or assemble an emergency kit – During an emergency, we will all need basic supplies. We may need to get by without power or tap water. Be prepared to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours in an emergency.

Every Grumpy Canuck Brigade member should have this one down pat. Enjoy the week and don’t forget to talk it up with your friends, family and neighbours.

Canada is Prepared!

Think of that when you unpack your BOB bag and can't find the lucky rabbit foot that your favourite Uncle Buck gave you for your 10th birthday. LOL.

Any invading force needs to establish bases for administration, laundry, food, and maintenance services, as well as for fueling vehicles and powering up communication and logistics sites. All these sites run on power, and they need lots of it. While generators can and will provide power in some circumstances, the bulk of power will come from the existing power grid.

Power systems are complex, require continual upkeep, and are notorious for breakdowns at the wrong time and for the wrong reasons.

Quote - For example, during last month’s freak snowstorm, a local paper mill got a message that their local energy supplier was throttling back their natural gas supply to a trickle. Why? Because the power grid, already stretched thin, doesn’t have the capacity to handle large surges in demand when the shit hits the fan.

As the plant manager explained to me, “Any time we lose power in freezing temperatures, it’s a minimum of $1 million in repairs and $5 million in lost production.” In an industry with paper-thin margins, a few $6 million hiccups can be all it takes to transform a local factory from an economic backbone to a mothballed relic.

When a factory shuts down, a community craters. If a local restaurant or barber shop closes, another will usually open to take its place. But when a factory disappears, there’s no one left to support local retailers or fund the local tax base. It’s a vicious spiral that reminds us that a few frozen pipes at the local paper mill threaten us all.

This clearly demonstrates that the military’s reliance on clean, cheap electrical power is an Achilles heel. Burn down a hydro pole and cut the power. Shoot out a transformer, cut the power. Cut the supply of gasoline, and you cut their ability to transport material and troops. Cut the power off, and their field hospital must switch to diesel generators. If you have already cut off fuel supplies, those generators will not be able to run forever. The need for fuel will require them to arrange bulk fuel deliveries, creating an opportunity for sabotage targeting fuel tankers. A viscous circle.

Will there be La Resistance 2.0? Will there be a True North, Strong and Free movement? Will people join up and fight in the Grumpy Canuck Brigade?

The plain and simple answer is a resounding yes. I firmly believe that we will. Hell, I see the roots of the resistance movement every day. On Substack, on TikTok, on FB, there is an outpouring of Canadian pride, sovereignty, and determination not to be the 51^st state. I’m part of that movement, and I suspect that if you are reading this, you are too. I firmly believe that when we get tested, we will find the warrior that is within us.

If your only idea of occupied France in World War II comes from the movies, you could be forgiven for believing that practically every French person at the time was walking around with a pistol in their lunchbox, a coded message sewn into the sleeve of their coat and a devil-may-care attitude about the dangers of being caught by the dreaded SS.

When SHTF, I am confident that we will remember that our French ancestors are famous for their resistance against the Nazi in WW2. Think of them. Just ordinary citizens who did what they could. Masha Bruskina, a 17-year-old, served in the Minsk resistance. Johan van Hulst was a Dutch educator who saved hundreds of Jewish children. Freddie and Truus Oversteegen, teenage girls who seduced, ambushed, and assassinated Nazi officers. Josephine Baker, the famous entertainer, used her status to courier intelligence.

The Dutch teenage sisters who seduced and killed the Nazis - Freddie & Truus Oversteegen

I think that many of our second-generation Canadians will recall that their families fought against tyrants in their homelands before coming to Canada. I believe most Canadians will join, either participating in small, quiet ways or through more direct action.

Many resistance movements begin with passive actions, such as social media pushback, street protests and quiet acts of sabotage. As we can see in Minnesota, the more the authorities crack down and brutalize the civilians, the larger and more direct the action of the resistance movements becomes. Violence begets violence.

Can a civilian resistance win the war? Well, obviously, we can’t foretell the future, but history shows us that a determined population can evolve into a militia that can, at times, win the war. To be honest, it’s not an easy task. It’s not a matter of blowing up a few trucks and boom, the war is over. It may take years and thousands killed and injured, but it can be done. Afghanistan was invaded twice in a row, first by the Russians from 1979 to February 1989, and then by the Americans from 2001 to 2021, and they won both times, though hard, long years.

It just takes heart, skill, determination, and a willingness to stick to the course. It takes grit, an Elbows Up attitude, and a love for your country. Never 51^st. Never American.

But when you look deeper, you might even see that they are human under all of that macho SWAT gear. The chances are that any military units arriving in Canada will face a moral dilemma. On the one hand, they will see themselves as elite soldiers in the world’s most powerful army; on the other hand, they will probably question the why behind their deployment.

The US military forces have and continue to use various methods to denigrate, demoralize, and dehumanize the enemy to gain psychological advantages, boost troop morale, and justify conflict. Nips and Kraut for Japanese and Germans, Dinks, chinks and slant eyes in Vietnam. Haji or Ragheads for Arabs and Muslims, and the list goes on. Here in Canada, I can only imagine that they would try to use the phrase Canuck or Hoser, or perhaps even Canuckistan or Canuckerfucker.

But the one thing we have going for us, if you can say that, is that to everyone in the world, we look American. Our ancestral roots are very similar, and thus, if we don’t try to speak in some weird downhome slang, we can get away with it. Most Americans will struggle to distinguish a typical Canadian accent from a US Midwestern or Western accent because they are so similar.

Canadians born in Quebec and New Brunswick may be easier to spot due to the “French” linguistic influence. When questioned, tell them you’re from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan or Ohio. Tell them you have family roots in Canada or had a Canuck roomie at the University of Michigan or at the University of Minnesota. If we don’t start talking about plastic bags of milk or using Loonies for a Timmies, we can often fool anyone who is not a linguist.

That will give us home advantage when we decide to invade the states and take the battle to their homeland.We can walk the streets of New York, Washington, D.C., and Texas without raising white flags. Armed with counterfeit documents (courtesy of Staples and my home printer), we will be able to blend in and start a campaign of domestic terrorism that they will be hard-pressed to identify.“Car 54, look out for a 45-year-old white male wearing blue jeans and a gray hoodie.”

We may look like them, speak like them, and dress like them, but our Canadian values, expressed in phrases such as True North, Strong and Free, and Elbows Up, will be our greatest difference and our greatest strength.

If you find yourself in that position, it might mean you need to apply the Don Turnblade test to your pack. According to Don, the best way to definitively determine which gear to take and which to toss is to conduct the yellow dot test. After you start the test and determine that your kit isn’t even good enough for 3 days, it will be obvious that it needs major improvement to be sufficient for 30 days.

Put a yellow dot sticker on each item in your BOB bag. Check into a state park or national forest campsite for 3 days. Bring only this kit. Nothing else.

When you use any item, remove the yellow dot sticker. Make a note of any items you forgot at home. Make a list of items that you didn’t bring but have now determined you absolutely need. Make a list of every item you had to run to the store for.

Travel trails while carrying all this kit. After the trip, look over your notes. Consider being rid of or minimizing any item that still has a yellow dot. Consider adding items you need. Update and retest.

Some items, like a rifle or a med kit, may not be used but still have a value. If you don’t get injured during the test, you might not be able to determine what items you are missing in your kit. It may take some time to work it out. Keep the yellow dots and notes for missing items until you need the med kit.

The same might occur with a bathroom kit, as the campground may have a bathroom, or with hunting tools, since one may not be allowed to kill and cook inside the campground.

Keep up the process until you have whittled down the luxury items to the everyday-use items. Carry those. And then pack your favourite chocolate bar, a package of Instant Coffee/Tea, after all, after a hard day rucking in the bush, you will need a little me time!

A common approach in places like Gaza and Ukraine, where power comes and goes depending on the bombing, a common trick is to fill up the bathtub and leave it filled up. You can drain it as needed for personal hygiene if you have running water, but always refill it directly afterwards, since you never know when you’ll lose the water supply. The standard bathtub will hold roughly 80 gallons (302 litres) of water. Much smaller bathtubs can only hold around 40 gallons (150 litres) of water,

The most common hot water tank sizes are 40 and 50 gallons (150-190 litres). To access water from a hot water tank, shut off the power (breaker/gas) and the cold-water supply valve. Connect a garden hose to the bottom drain valve, place the other end in a drain or bucket, and open a hot water tap in the house to break the vacuum. Open the drain valve slowly to release water.

Another source of water could be the toilet’s water tank, which also holds water. Technically, the water should be safe since it comes from the house supply; however, it is not recommended due to the risk of bacterial growth, rust, and contamination from stagnation or chemical exposure. I think it would automatically fall into the “boil and then be used to wash clothes” category, myself. Modern low-flow toilets typically hold 1.28 to 1.6 gallons (4.8–6 litres) of water per flush, while older toilets (pre-1994) can hold significantly more, often ranging from 3.5 to 7 gallons per flush.

Everybody should have a water supply closet in your home. You don’t need to purchase special water bottles/jugs; you can simply clean and refill any soda or water bottle with tap water and a drop of bleach. Once a week, you use some and refill the empties.

Water is not just used for drinking; it’s also used to flush toilets and wash clothing and dishes, so you need an ample supply. Buying rain barrels or even just leaving open containers outside to catch rain, etc., are all ways to increase water supply. Purified water should be clearly marked so you don’t accidentally dump untreated roof water into your coffee cup; it could taste like pigeon poop. Just saying.

Sustaining a deployed military force anywhere to execute combat operations is difficult. Canada’s vast geographical size further compounds this challenge. Add the fact that it will be an asymmetric (irregular guerrilla) war, and it goes from bad to worst-case scenario for the military planners. And then, to make it worse, in the event of a military invasion to support the annexation of Canada, it will be against a peer adversary with global allies and, more importantly, the overwhelming support of the people.

The Americans understand that success in Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) and protracted conflict depends on robust logistics support. Forward posturing requires amassing large quantities of war materiel and ensuring the continued flow of logistics to sustain combat. Conversely, inadequate sustainment hampers operations and restricts commanders’ warfighting flexibility. It restricts their ability to launch offensive operations and may limit them to defensive operations. And that’s where the Grumpy Canuck Brigade comes in.

It goes without saying that, given the importance of logistics to the war effort, those supply chains and maintenance support functions must be protected and maintained uninterrupted, as they will be high-value targets for our adversaries.

At the height of the conflict in late 2022, Russia was expending 20,000 artillery rounds a day. As Russian logistics nodes and main supply routes were actively sought out and targeted by Ukrainian fires, the daily rate of fire dropped precipitously to 5,000 rounds a day.

The interdiction of supply routes (including Ground and Sea Lines of Communication [GLOCs/SLOCs]), and the targeted destruction of logistics nodes (including Sea and Airports of Debarkation [SPODs/APODs], staging areas, Ammunition Supply Points [ASPs], and fuel depots) will challenge U.S. force sustainment.

Logistics infrastructure will remain high-value targets, including arms depots, fuel supplies, power grids, and transportation networks. We can do our part to disrupt major supply routes at key chokepoints — bridges, tunnels, and railway junctions. Creating obstacles will be vital to slowing down their sustaining operations. A burning school bus on the road will slow down the re-supply convoy, just saying.

Whether it’s old-fashioned eyeball observations or drone surveillance, information on supply vehicles and convoys will need to be acquired, identified, and tracked to resupply points for targeting and subsequent destruction by Direct Action groups, thereby degrading both logistics and the associated means of transportation and distribution.

Trucks without fuel, soldiers without food, doctors without band-aids. That is the goal. Yes, they can shift from transport to helicopter resupply, but each extra guard that is posted, every time they need to do things the hard way, the better off we are. Elbows Up.

Now, imagine the choices that Trump faces when he wakes up. Do I put boots on the ground and attack Kharg Island? Should I bomb Iran back to the Stone Age? Do I continue the oil embargo against Cuba and try to overthrow their government? Should I annex Canada first or Greenland?

Some decisions are simple, while others are extremely difficult. Thought experiments like the Trolley Problem or Lifeboat scenario, often used during hiring, reveal our morality, ethics, and decision-making styles—whether we trust intuition, use logic, or leave it to chance. There is no such thing as the right way to make a decision. Choosing the colour of the shirt you wear today doesn’t require the same decision-making process that you use to choose which university to attend.

Let’s conduct a small thought experiment here and now. Considering the options shown below, what is your perspective on choosing Category A or B? Truthfully, participants often wish to swap or take all items, but real life rarely offers such choices—decisions can be sudden and one-sided.

While a crossbow enables hunting more types of game, a trap operates around the clock and requires no effort, unlike bow hunting. Water tablets purify water without fire but are limited to 40 uses, while a pot allows unlimited boiling. A spear is helpful for hunting and cutting, though a knife is easier to handle and can be thrown for hunting. The paracord-and-tarp combo makes building shelter simple, whereas using an axe requires more physical effort but will allow for the construction of a stronger, more permanent shelter in the long run. As you sit and ponder, you can see the pros and cons of each item, but sometimes, the time for thinking is nonexistent, and those choices must be made now, immediately.

The choice often depends on practical skills and experience, but it also mirrors our thoughts and personality. Am I a pessimist or an optimist? Am I going to be stuck here for the long term, or am I confident I will be rescued before I need to build a permanent log cabin? Do I need to start a fire now because of the freezing temperatures, or is it mild enough that I don’t need one? Do I even know how to locate a game trail and safely skin an animal?

So, in these turbulent times, facing uncertainty from Trump, from the impacts of AI on the labour market, on the long-term stability of the world order, what decisions are you making and why? Are you being pragmatic in deciding to create a survival pantry of emergency food, or are you simply falling for the fearmongering that social media is amplifying? Do you swim upstream or downstream? Go with the flow or not? Are you preparing for the worst, or will you face the future confident that you can cope regardless of whether you’re prepared?

Are you the proverbial ant or the grasshopper? Being a pessimist can be exhausting, but being an optimist can sometimes blind you to the realities of the world. IMHO, being prepared is being prudent, pragmatic, and common-sense, but it’s important not to fall into the tin-foil-hat world of conspiracy and doomsayers. Life isn’t only about practicalities; it also requires emotional connections. My advice is to take a First Aid course and enjoy Friday night pizza with friends and family. Buy two cans of stew for your pantry and rotate one can from your pantry to the local food bank. Grow some carrots in your backyard and flowers in your front yard. Elbows Up.

And in the USA/Israel war, a US defence official stated that US forces struck the newly constructed B1 bridge in Karaj, Iran, to disrupt a planned supply route for
Iran’s ballistic missile and attack drone units.

From a military standpoint, such operations serve not only tactical objectives but also integrate psychological, political, and humanitarian considerations. These actions can affect civilian behaviour, weaken opposing logistical capabilities, and diminish popular support for resistance by imposing practical burdens on the population.

From the civilian perspective, the loss of a bridge can result in geographic isolation. Essential supplies, including food, may be delayed or become more expensive due to longer alternate routes, and evacuation options are limited, forcing individuals to
undertake hazardous journeys to alternative crossings. Such circumstances
highlight the profound impact of military decisions on civilian life.

As an interesting note, in the event of a military invasion, there are some 51,717 bridges in Canada that could be targeted in a resistance campaign.

It’s a crying shame that bridges, the very image of connection of people and places, are now the very things that we destroy to protect ourselves or hurt others.

Some pundits argue that without the United States, NATO would be weakened; however, IMHO, the alliance could become even stronger in the absence of American leadership. This scenario is comparable to maturing and no longer depending on one’s parents for protection—NATO could flourish on its own. The foundation of NATO’s strength lies in the collective commitment of its members, their integrated capabilities, and the unwavering trust in Article 5, which guarantees collective defence regardless of day-to-day political disagreements. While the departure of the USA would be felt, both the European Union and NATO are unlikely to collapse as a result.

No one denies that the United States has historically supplied the largest portion of conventional arms to NATO and has maintained a robust nuclear umbrella that was instrumental in deterring Soviet aggression following World War II. However, NATO’s strength is not solely dependent on the United States; other member states have consistently contributed both weapons and personnel to bolster the alliance’s collective defence capabilities.

While the United States possesses the largest military force within NATO and indeed, in the world, that is not to say that NATO is defenceless without the USA. The European countries have, on their own, significant combined strength across Europe, with approximately 2 million active-duty military personnel ready to respond to threats. This collective force underscores NATO’s ability to act as a unified entity in the face of security challenges, with or without the USA as a part of NATO.

The United States has also traditionally provided much of NATO’s nuclear deterrent. Nevertheless, both France and the United Kingdom maintain independent nuclear arsenals and delivery systems, contributing to the alliance’s overall defensive posture. With the United States included, NATO possesses a combined nuclear umbrella of roughly 4,215 nuclear warheads. Should the United States withdraw, NATO would still retain an umbrella of approximately 510 nuclear weapons. More than enough for a safe and secure NATO and Europe.

France maintains a stockpile of about 290 warheads, which can be delivered by ballistic missile submarines and Rafale aircraft operating from land bases or aircraft carriers. The United Kingdom is estimated to possess 225 nuclear weapons, primarily deployed on its Trident nuclear submarines. These capabilities ensure that, even without American involvement, NATO retains a credible nuclear deterrent.

Nuclear Notebook - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Despite Trump’s emphasis on military strength, 85-90% of U.S. active-duty personnel are stationed in the United States or its territories, with only about 160,000 overseas as of 2026. Most are in ten countries, like Japan, Germany, South Korea, Italy, and the UK. Given the National Defence Strategy’s focus on homeland defence, U.S. troops are primarily positioned domestically, so European forces would initially respond to any Russian blitzkrieg. It takes time to mobilize troops for an attack, which gives the defenders time to get their shit together, too. For instance, on Jan 23, 2026, Trump announced that a US “armada” was heading to the Middle East, and the military began deploying assets to the region in preparation for military action, which did not begin until February 28, 2026.

I think that, even without U.S. involvement, NATO and EU member states remain protected by their nuclear umbrella.

Simply possessing nuclear weapons acts as a powerful deterrent—far more so than tanks or aircraft. For instance, despite the US describing North Korea as a brutal dictatorship and its leader as unstable, it has not taken direct military action against them. The United States’ nuclear arsenal is estimated to be 74 times greater than North Korea’s, yet this hasn’t led to intervention. This demonstrates that owning just 50 nuclear weapons can deter potential aggressors. The presence of these weapons prevents direct US action against North Korea, which contrasts with other interventions against other counties including Iran.

Research indicates that detonating only 100 bombs the size of those dropped on Hiroshima could trigger severe global cooling, damage crop yields, and potentially cause starvation for up to two billion people. These enormous risks make nuclear conflict undesirable, and all nuclear powers understand this reality.

Is NATO a paper tiger? Given how foolish Trump is on everything else in his MAGA world, I think this is merely something else that he’s wrong about.

Liquor, tobacco, recreational drugs, gas/fuel, batteries (all sizes), soap, shampoo, toilet paper, deodorant, personal hygiene (tampons), toothpaste & brushes, razor blades, canned or jar food, medicines, prescription medicines, antibiotics, painkillers, vitamins, medical equipment, salt, chocolate, coffee, seasonings/spices, candy, teabags, sugar, water purification tablets. Extra shoes, socks and jackets are also lifesavers as many people will show up with only the clothes on their backs.

Today, a variety of cables and chargers for phones, laptops, and iPads are among the most sought-after items in evacuation centers. You don’t need to carry a 7-11 store around with you; many of these items are extremely lightweight. Being able to make instant coffee with hot tap water can make a world of difference for someone, and a zip-lock bag of freeze-dried coffee granules weighs almost nothing. So, what do you have to trade? I’ll lend you my charger for the day for a bottle of water?

More than 13 million Syrians have been displaced by the nearly 14-year conflict, representing over half the country’s pre-war population. This includes over 6 million refugees hosted primarily in neighbouring countries and roughly 7.4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Syria.

It’s hard to predict what impact a USA military invasion would have on Canada. Most scenarios envision surgical strikes on military and political centers to take control. After all, the objective is to take control of the country and annex it, rather than a full-scale invasion. But if a resistance is formed and open/guerrilla warfare erupts, there might be scenarios when large-scale military activities could occur, and whenever you have tank or artillery fire or bombs, missiles falling, there will be displaced people who need to flee.

Canada’s largest displaced-person events have typically been caused by forest fires that threaten communities. Think of Fort Mac, when more than 80,000 residents were forced to flee during the May 2016 wildfire. And don’t forget that forest fires forced the evacuation of almost the entire city of Yellowknife (approx. 20,000 residents) and many surrounding Indigenous communities in the Northwest Territories in Aug 2023.

When the time for evacuation comes, it can be hard. Yes, it sounds silly to say that the decision to flee an active war zone or a forest fire is difficult, but in truth, it can be. People fret over the pros and cons of sheltering in place or trying to flee.

Evacuation can be expensive, requiring upfront costs for transport, food, and shelter that low-income individuals may not have. This often leads to severe financial hardship, further complicated by insurance disputes, lost income, and the cost of rebuilding. Displacement breaks social support networks, separating families and community members. Do you stay to take care of the family home or business when your other family members decide to flee? And where do you flee to? Do you have a full tank of gas, or is the fuel needle near the empty mark?

9 extreme challenges you face when forced to flee conflict - Trócaire

Being prepared by equipping and having a BOB (Bug Out Bag) is vital. It ensures you have the tools, equipment, and information to help you survive if you can’t get home. While the extra sweater and socks are handy, don’t forget the USB stick that holds scanned copies of your insurance documents and bank information. And don’t forget a USB charging adapter to power up your phone.

Get prepared - Canada.ca

When most people think of cannibalism in America, they probably think of the Donner Party — the famous travelers who resorted to the practice when they were stuck in the snowy Sierra Nevada mountains while travelling west in 1846. A more recent story centers on the 1972 Andes flight disaster and the resulting cannibalism for survival, as depicted in the movies Alive (1993) and Society of the Snow (2023). Both films detail the harrowing, true story of the Uruguayan rugby team, with Society of the Snow offering a more recent, critically acclaimed, and visceral Spanish-language perspective. Highly recommended to watch!

Society of the Snow | Official Trailer | Netflix

While I don’t think that a military annexation of Canada would force the country into an apocalypse of zombie cannibals, there can be no doubt that war often results in starvation and hunger as an indirect consequence. Whether it's from power outages, bombings that have destroyed food supply factories or the importation of food being impacted by economic blockade, food security is put at risk every day in a war environment.

War and invasion act as major drivers of global food insecurity by directly destroying agricultural infrastructure, blocking supply chains, and displacing populations. Conflicts cause immediate localized hunger while triggering international spikes in food, fuel, and fertilizer prices. The war between Ukraine and Russia clearly showed how blockades of ports and destruction of transport infrastructure created food scarcity problems.

You can read more here. Conflict and hunger | World Food Programme

So, how prepared are you for an upcoming food emergency? It doesn’t have to be war; natural disasters can create circumstances in which you lose access to your home, money, and support systems. Can you handle being without food, medicine, or electricity for a day, 4 days, a month, or more?

The global world has a global supply chain, and when one link breaks, the chain breaks. The 6-day-old Iran-USA war and the resulting Iranian blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz are already hitting the global fertilizer supply chain, which could face significant disruption if the closure persists, prompting concerns from analysts about crop production and food security.

Have you made a list of local food producers who can supply you with local products if Walmart stops importing food? Do you know a local farmer who would be willing to trade potatoes for help fixing his farm equipment?

Have you created a home pantry and stocked it with long-term foods, as practiced by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints? The LDS practices food security through a comprehensive, two-pronged approach focusing on both individual self-reliance and organized welfare assistance. The core philosophy is "provident living," which emphasizes preparedness, financial responsibility, and the storage of resources to handle emergencies such as job loss, illness, or natural disasters. Any forceful annexation of Canada will result in economic problems that will create and exacerbate food security issues. Be Prepared, the scouting motto, is applicable in our everyday lives and even more so in times of conflict.

When ILaughAtStupid10 made his remark of “If you ever have to eat a human being, you aren’t prepared”, he was partially right but also 100% wrong. If you only assume that SHTF only when you are at home in your fully stocked and supplied Fortress of Solitude, then you may never have to resort to cannibalism. But Karma doesn’t always happen when you are prepared and ready; it often happens at the worst of times, especially when you are not prepared at all.

Not many Canadians have experience living in a war zone. Not many Canadians have ever experienced a real, true state of hunger, which means you will eat anything that walks or crawls. Did you know that in the 872-day Siege of Leningrad during WW2, residents ate their family pets and all the animals at the Leningrad Zoo? They ate pigeons, crows, insects and rats. They boiled leather, scraped off the potato-starch glue from wallpaper, and ate dandelions and tree bark. Oh, and police records reported over 2000 arrests for cannibalism, many of which involved the murder of the person first.

Are you prepared?