Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight is powered by our newly launched Predictions Markets Intelligence (PMI) Databook platform. To explore our full suite of institutional research reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. Chart of the Week: Kalshi Is King Of Combos But Underdog Is Ramping Fast

• The chart above, taken from our newly launched PMI Databook platform, shows operator combo share as a percentage of overall contract volume (CV).

• Kalshi holds a massive 94% of the total combo market and continues to grow rapidly, with combos up to 57% of CV in August, up from 15% in February.

• Underdog exchange is another standout, ramping quickly from a standing start in July to second-best combo percentage in the market at 48.7%.

  • That surge reflects lower contract breadth (Underdog offers contracts on 13 leagues vs. Kalshi’s 110, per our PMI Databook platform), but also a customer base used to building parlays in the core Underdog pick’em product.

• DraftKings DKeX only launched combos in the last week of August, affecting its monthly stats, but traded 11mm in four days, which represented ~36% of its total CV during that time.

• Market-wide, combo is 50% of tracked U.S. sports CV, up from 14% in Feb.

Stop guessing and start analyzing. EKG monitors every major U.S. exchange with granular, daily-updated, and fully exportable data. Request a demo of our institutional grade PMI Databook platform by contacting Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

2. News You May Have Missed: Fanatics’ Super App

• Fanatics has become the latest operator to add predictions to its core app to create a “super app.”

• Fanatics joins the likes of DraftKings and Betr with multiple verticals in one app, presented by what is available in a given state.

• FanDuel is expected to follow this football season with its One App.

• Fanatics currently routes trades via Nadex (crypto.com) meaning its current trading volume is difficult to untangle.

• However, last month the operator acquired a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing ​organization from BGC Group to launch its own prediction market exchange.

3. Quote of the Week: BetMGM Borrows Sportsbook Product Ideas From PM

• BetMGM has rolled out a suite of product upgrades ahead of the NFL season, including cash-out value charts and percentage odds—inspired by prediction markets.

• BetMGM Product Management Leader Brittany Dunbar told InGame that the feature came out of conversations with BetMGM users who had also used prediction markets.

• DraftKings has also introduced price charts inside its PM and OSB product suggesting and increasing crossover between the two verticals.

• FanDuel MD Karol Corcoran told us the biggest learning from prediction markets was around the value of live product—things like live visualizations, price charts, and near-100% uptime for cash-out.

• Corcoran said customer expectations in those areas were changing and sportsbooks had to adapt.

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Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. Chart of the Week: Novig Climbs Past Rothera, Underdog Exchanges

• The chart above, taken from our latest Prediction Markets Monitor, shows daily average contract volume for challenger PM exchanges for the seven days ended Aug. 17, 2026.

• Novig’s exchange launched on August 4 and is off to a strong start, with daily average contract volume of 21mm.

• That’s ahead of Robinhood’s Rothera exchange and the Underdog exchange, and slightly behind the Nadex exchange to which DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and others route.

• Novig comes from a running start after switching over its sweeps exchange to real money.

• However, the challenger exchanges are still tiny compared to Kalshi which is doing around $1.2bn in CV a day in August. Polymarket U.S. is around $110m.

• Novig CEOJacob Fortinsky pledged to ramp up spending in the months ahead, telling 4th Quarter: “Our growth will continue to be product-led, but we’re going to become much more aggressive on user acquisition and brand awareness.

• “I’d be surprised if, in the next two months, any sports fan didn’t know who Novig was,” Fortinsky added.

2. News You May Have Missed: Kalshi’s New Maker Fees

• Kalshi introduced maker fees on combos last week in a bid to monetize its 95% share of the U.S. combo market.

• The maker fees will be roughly double normal maker fees, though there is an exemption for uncorrelated NFL parlays.

• The early indication is that makers are simply passing the fees onto takers via wider spreads and worse price quotes.

• Polymarket U.S. also fully launched combos this week, meaning Kalshi’s share of combos should drop in the second half of the year.

3. Quote of the Week: CME Takes Aim At Kalshi

• CME Group CEO Terry Duffy said the above to Kalshi co-founder and COO Luana Lopes Lara during the inaugural meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee.

• Duffy argued that PMs are self-certifying and listing too many markets that are open to manipulation.

• “There are definitely people that are manipulating these contracts,” Duffy said. “That is not good for our industry. That is horrible for our industry.”

• He added: “Listing markets susceptible to manipulation is really doing the opposite of what we’re trying to effectuate. We’re not a bunch of carnival barkers at a circus. We are running the most enviable markets in the world in the United States of America.”

• Duffy has been a vocal opponent to non-financial prediction markets, leading PM partner FanDuel to move sports volume to crypto.com.

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Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. Chart of the Week: Kalshi Dominates Combos

• Kalshi accounts for 97% share of the PM sports combo market, per the latest EKG tracking.

• The exchange saw combos reach ~44% of contract volume in July, roughly double the levels seen in March.

• Beneath Kalshi, combo performance is nascent and evolving. Underdog just launched combos on its own exchange, and Nadex‘s combo share growth corresponds with ramp-ups at key partners including DraftKings Inc., Fanatics and FanDuel.

• At FanDuel JV partner CME Group, combo contract volume has not been reported since 2Q26 earnings, on which management expressed reservations about parlay-style sports contracts. Combo contract volume at ProphetX, meanwhile, is rising off a modest base.

• In Illinois OSB, parlays account for 58% of wagers and roughly 60-70% of GGR at FanDuel and DraftKings.

• The readthrough: combo is not a niche feature but a central product layer—and potentially the defining one—in determining who captures mainstream sports PM demand.
  
  The data above comes from from EKG’s forthcoming PM intelligence platform.

2. News You May Have Missed: The End Of In-House Market-Makers?

• The CFTC has proposed a new set of rules addressing in-house market-makers.

• The proposed rules say exchanges can own affiliated market-makers but they must act as “bona fide” liquidity providers rather than proprietary traders.

• That means continuous two-sided quotes, no directional trading, no preferential treatment, and operationally separate from the exchange. They also must get filled after non-affiliated traders if the same price.

• Public comments on the rules are open for 60 days.

• If enforced tightly the regs would fundamentally change the current market dynamics.

• For one, the rule against taking directional risk could potentially prohibit laying combos via RFQs. The rule on getting filled after other participants could also hurt profitability.

• These rules are still under discussion, but will have a potentially massive impact on the future of the industry and whether firms offer a true open market or can try and farm order flow through their own in-house MMs.

3. Quote of the Week: Can Kalshi Raise More Tax Than Sportsbooks?

• Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the above on CNBC this week, following news of a lawsuit against the company by the state of New York.

• Mansour said Kalshi offered to pay tax to New York that would double what sportsbooks pay, but said “we just didn’t hear a response”.

• The WSJ reported the Kalshi offer was worth $10bn in tax over five years, though industry observers are skeptical.

• New York taxes sportsbooks at 51% of GGR and collects the most taxes of any state in the US. Cumulatively it has collected $4.5bn in sports betting tax, nearly 4x any other state.

• NY Gov. Kathy Hochul said Kalshi could offer to pay 100% of its revenue but it couldn’t buy an exemption from the law.

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Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. WHERE DO MARKET-MAKERS WANT TO TRADE?

• For our latest Prediction Market Monitor, we surveyed a handful of market-makers to get an early indication of their favored places to trade.

• The short answer is: “where the recs are.”

• At present that’s overwhelmingly Kalshi, which, as shown above, holds 79% share of U.S. sports Contract Volume, and is broadly welcoming of market makers.

• Polymarket U.S. has the best rebates for MMs and liquidity incentives on certain markets, but the platform is not as easy to interact with, per one market-making source.

• As for the newer exchanges, DKeX has a “very impressive team” per checks and is very open to onboarding new MMs. But that’s not the case everywhere.

• Some exchanges are turning down new MM partners, saying they have sufficient liquidity. Other exchanges, meanwhile, have reportedly set MM fees to uneconomic levels.

• Are these methods designed to keep external MMs out and capture order flow for internal teams? Multiple operators told us they believe that would be breaking CFTC regulations—but will it be enforced?

• It’s a hugely important question. How much competition there is in market-making will have massive impact on the economics of PMs going forward.

2. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: POLYMARKET EYEING USER-GENERATED MARKETS?

• Polymarket U.S. has filed a U.S. trademark application for “CREATE YOUR OWN MARKET,” potentially signaling plans to let users create their own prediction markets and questions.

• The filing is still pending and awaiting examination by the USPTO, meaning it provides an early indication of product direction rather than any forthcoming launch.

• Polymarket U.S. users can currently suggest markets for creation via Discord but not create their own.

• Over on Polymarket’s international exchange, user-generated sports combos—which launched at the end of May—generated <1% of total sports Contract Volume in June, per our tracking.

3. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: DRAFTKINGS SURPRISED BY LEVEL OF MARKET-MAKER INTEREST

• DraftKings Predictions GM Jeanine Hightower Sellitto said the above on EKG’s Zero Latency podcast last week.

• She added that capital constraints meant market-makers had to choose a select number of exchanges to deploy their capital and DraftKings was a clear front-runner thanks to its high number of customers and potential recreational flow.

• In turn, more MMs and better pricing/liquidity should create a virtuous circle of liquidity that will attract more customers.

• As noted in Section 1, DraftKings has earned plaudits from MMs for its willingness to onboard new partners, though some early users criticized the platform for looking too much like a sportsbook.

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Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: PM PARLAYS ARE EXPLODING

• The chart above, taken from our latest Prediction Markets Monitor, shows Execution Volume (EV) for sports combos across all PM operators.

• Combos have exploded in recent months, particularly with the advent of the World Cup.

• Combo execution volume on Kalshi in June is 12.4% of sports EV, roughly double that in March.

• EV is a better reflection of OSB-style handle as it reflects the value transacted at the time of trade and is measured on a one-sided basis.

• The evidence increasingly suggests that maximizing the sports PM opportunity will depend less on adding new sports and more on continuing to evolve combo products toward greater depth, flexibility, and engagement.

• Toward that end, Polymarket International introduced user-generated combo products in Jun-26 (only modest daily average EV thus far, per our tracking)—and we expect Polymarket U.S. to follow suit imminently.

2. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: META EYING PM APP?

• Meta is working on a predictions market app, per a new report from The New York Times.

• The app would be initially be play money, though the company has not ruled out a real-money version, the NYT said.

• The app is provisionally called Arena and would be a standalone product.

3. PODAST: THE TAX MAN IS COMING FOR PREDICTION MARKETS

Host Brad Allen is joined by EKG policy director Becca Giden to discuss:

• Why states could have success in taxing prediction markets

• The new CFTC rules on prediction markets

• Whether sportsbooks will continue to avoid tax increases

Listen here.

4. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: FANDUEL SEEING MINIMAL PM IMPACT ON OSB

• FanDuel is not seeing any real impact on its sportsbook activity from prediction markets, exec Jon Sadow told EKG’s Zero Latency podcast last week.

• The comments are somewhat at odds with DraftKings’ CEOJason Robins, who has previously said sharp bettors are shifting to DK Predicts, meaning lower handle but higher hold on the sportsbook.

• Our own research continues to suggest a small impact on OSB activity, with PM activity focused in populous, non-OSB states like TX and CA.

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Welcome to Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: BTC MARKETS ARE DRIVING PM GROWTH

• The chart above, taken from our latest Prediction Market Monitor, shows Kalshi volume mix by category. A clear pattern is emerging: sports and short-resolution crypto markets are driving the vast majority of volume.

• It’s well known that sports has been the core driver of Kalshi’s meteoric rise. In 3Q-4Q25, sports accounted for roughly 90% of Execution Volume.

• Since the turn of the year, however, Kalshi’s mix has evolved into a sports-plus-crypto story, with short-resolution Bitcoin markets emerging as a primary growth driver. Kalshi’s integration with Coinbase in January appears to have been a catalyst on the crypto front.

• We’ve seen similar trends at Polymarket International, where 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly Bitcoin markets, per our tracking, are approaching half of all crypto Execution Volume.

• Newer PM entrants have taken notice, with DraftKings Predictions announcing in late May that it would operate 5-minute Bitcoin markets as part of its Quick Crypto offering (not live at the time of publication).

• Short-resolution Bitcoin markets are an early example of how prediction market infrastructure can support increasingly game-like user experiences, potentially broadening participation beyond traditional trading-oriented audiences.

• And while still in the early innings, the emergence of short-resolution crypto markets suggests that the next major PM growth chapter may come not just from sports, but from the broader gamification of financial speculation and event trading.

2. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: NO PM MICRO-MARKETS?

• Among the prediction market rules proposed by the CFTC last week was an apparent limitation on micro-markets.

• The Commission said bets like “the outcome of a specific pitch thrown by a specific pitcher,” among others, provided “no meaningful information and raised manipulation risk.”

• The clarification is a minor blow for DraftKings, which previously talked up its ability to leverage these markets in the PM space.

3. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: ARE PMS MORE PROFITABLE THAN SPORTS BETTING?

• DraftKings CFO Alan Ellingson said the above at the Gabelli sports and media symposium last week.

• The math can be finagled based on state tax rate, hold rates, trading fees, marketing spend and much, much more, but our own preliminary analysis published in this week’s Prediction Market Monitor found OSB and PMs are roughly equally profitable at around a 31% OSB tax rate.

• With New York’s 51% tax rate, PMs are roughly twice as profitable (assuming no changes to marketing spend).

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Welcome to the fourth edition of Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: DRAFTKINGS REFUSES TO RULE OUT STOCK TRADING

• Appearing on the After Earnings show this week, DraftKings CFO Alan Ellingson was asked this week whether the company would ever expand to stock trading.

• His answer, above, suggested it was being considered.

• Ellingson hinted stocks would fit neatly into DraftKings’s existing relationship with its customers.

• He said: “We do view ourselves as a for-money entertainment company, whether thats $2 on a lottery ticket, or P2P fantasy, there’s something thematic about how we engage with our customers. Right now we’ll stick with our wheelhouse and see how it evolves.”

2. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED:

• Illinois has moved to classify prediction markets as sports wagering and tax them appropriately, under its new budget filed this week.

• The state will tax 1.75% of each exchange wager up to 5mm wagers during a fiscal year; and 3.5% of each exchange wager thereafter.

• Kentucky was the first state to try and directly tax PM revenues.

3. CHART OF THE WEEK: CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES OVERINDEX IN EARLY WORLD CUP TRADING ON KALSHI

• The chart above shows the most popular teams by contract volume (CV) on Kalshi in individual game-markets (rather than outrights), per our tracking.

• The early numbers seem to point to a Central American bias, with Mexico more popular than the U.S., and with two Caribbean nations (Curacao and Haiti) also in the top five most traded teams.

• That bias may reflect the demographic makeup of key PM states like Texas and California.

• With one week until kickoff, the match markets are still a fraction of the size of the outright market. The most popular game is the opener, Mexico vs. South Africa, which has done around $160k in CV while the tournament winner markets have done around $65mm in contract volume.

• Contract volume is pumped up by the generally long odds for outright winner bets, with execution volume (EV) at $4.6mm, a closer reflection of OSB-style handle.

• EV reflects the value transacted at the time of trade and is measured on a one-sided (i.e., yes-taker) basis.

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Welcome to the third edition of Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: ROBINHOOD IS LOSING GROUND

• The chart above shows Robinhood’s prediction market Contract Volume (CV) over the last nine months.

• After peaking in January this year, at 3.4bn, Robinhood CV has plateaued, touching 3.2bn in April, while rivals have kicked on.

• As a percentage of Kalshi volume, Robinhood has fallen from more than 50% in 3Q25 to 22% in April 2026 reflecting both the plateauing at Robinhood and growth at Kalshi.

• Also in April, the blue bar on the chart (Polymarket U.S.) ramps to 40% of Robinhood volume.

• That’s before Poly opened to all U.S. customers, suggesting it could catch and pass Robinhood in the months ahead.

• Of course, the plateau may be by design. Robinhood currently routes trades through external exchange partners Kalshi and ForecastEx but looks set to launch its own exchange Rothera before the soccer World Cup.

• Once Robinhood owns the full economics of a PM customer, it may ramp up its PM efforts.

• As one example, Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma said this week the broker would do away with its current $0.02 per-contract fee and offer “the best pricing in the market” once shifted to Rothera.

2. NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED: DRAFTKINGS EYES PM MICRO-MARKETS

• DraftKings filed plans for its first proprietary exchange products with the CFTC this week, including blueprints for the industry’s first micromarkets.

• The GAMEDAY PROPERTY market includes things like “team to score a touchdown on their next drive.”

• This type of market doesn’t yet exist on prediction markets platforms, but DraftKings is well-suited to offer them thanks to its ownership of SimpleBet, which specializes in these markets and the collection of the data needed to fuel them.

• DraftKings hinted at those micro-market plans earlier this month at an industry conference.

3. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: ROBINHOOD ATTRACTING INSTITUTIONAL PARTNERS?

• Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma said the above to the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference this week.

• Verma said those conversations with other introducing brokers would drive prediction markets from a retail product at present to an institutional one.

• He added that Robinhood saw major upside beyond sports predictions, especially in financial questions.

• “As an example, you go to the stock page for Apple, you can trade Apple the equity. You could put an event contract on the KPIs, on the number of iPhones sold. You could do an event contract on their actual earnings, the revenue and EPS. Today, some of our competitors have that. We will list that as soon as we can.”

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Welcome to the second edition of Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: POLYMARKET U.S. RAMPS UP

• The chart above shows Polymarket U.S.’s daily sports Execution Volume (EV) since launch.

• Sports EV, around 99% of Polymarket U.S. EV in the status quo, has spiked in the last week as the operator removed its waiting list and rolled out the exchange for all U.S. users.

• In the six days since, daily average sports EV is up around 28% versus the prior six day period to $22.4mm, with the company posting record sports EV on May 16—the first Saturday on which the app was open to all U.S. users.

• For comparison, Kalshi daily average sports EV during the same six-day period was $134.3mm—roughly 6x higher than Polymarket U.S.—suggesting there is still a long way for Polymarket to go.

• In April, Kalshi accounted for around 85% share of U.S. sports EV. That was down from 88% in March and looks set to tick down further in May, with current trends (through May 17) pointing toward an 83% finish.
  

• Kalshi EV share is declining as operators like Polymarket U.S. and Crypto.com grow faster from smaller bases. Kalshi’s fast-increasing reliance on lower-priced combos is also acting as a mathematical drag on its sports EV share—especially relative to competitors like Polymarket U.S. who do not yet offer combos.
  

• Our Execution Volume metric represents contracts * execution price. It reflects the value transacted at the time of trade and is measured on a one-sided (i.e., yes-taker) basis.
  

2. NUMBER TO KNOW: MASSIVE UPSIDE FOR PM COMBOS

• Kalshi’s combo revenue run rate is $300mm according to DraftKings CFO Alan Ellingson, who was speaking at a MoffettNathanson conference last week.

• Ellingson compared that $300mm number to the $10bn that the OSB sector expects to make from parlays this year, hinting there was plenty of upside to come for combos.

• DraftKings launched combos on its PM platform last week and is uniquely positioned to benefit thanks to its pricing/trading expertise, Ellingson said.

• “Theres a long way for predictions to go,” Ellingson said “I’m optimistic. We think its going to be a fantastic growth story.”

3. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: DRAFTKINGS CO-FOUNDER TAKES AIM AT KALSHI

• DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish took to Twitter over the weekend to suggest prediction markets are still 2-3 years away from being “remotely close” to the same product quality as online sports betting.

• In a lengthy thread, Kalish named Kalshi specifically and said 99% of rec players would be confused by the product and get “decimated” by market makers.

• Kalish is no longer in an executive role at DraftKings, after stepping down as president in November, but is still on the board. He is currently CEO at creator media platform HardScope.

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Welcome to the first edition of Front Running, the prediction markets newsletter from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. You are receiving this newsletter because you subscribed to the EKG Line.

The following data and insight comes from our new Predictions Markets Intelligence vertical. For subscription options and sample reports, contact Simon Krejcik at skrejcik@ekgamingllc.com.

1. CHART OF THE WEEK: COLLEGE BASKETBALL PUNCHES ABOVE ITS WEIGHT ON PMS

• The chart above shows combined execution volume on U.S. prediction markets in 1Q26 across Kalshi, Nadex (Crypto.com), and Polymarket U.S, per our preliminary mapping.

• College basketball dominated. NCAA men’s basketball led all leagues with 31.1% of tracked U.S. sports PM EV.

• DraftKings said last week that college basketball punches above its weight on PMs thanks to its focus on single-game outcomes. That’s compared to a pro league like the NBA which is more focused on stars and therefore more player prop and SGP-driven.

• In a similar vein, tennis performed well on PMs, combining for nearly 12% of execution volume across ATP (men’s) and WTA (women’s).

• Our Execution Volume metric represents contracts * execution price. It reflects the value transacted at the time of trade and is measured on a one-sided (i.e., yes-taker) basis.

• The NFL and NCAA football combined for $1.2bn in 1Q26 EV, representing just 9.8% of tracked sports PM EV.

• We note there were just 13 NFL games in 1Q, with relatively fewer marquee teams progressing deep into the playoffs. However, we would still expect football to under-index on PMs versus OSB over the full year given the sport is highly driven by player props and SGP.

• Combo products—not a league, but included for context—represented 16.6% of tracked Contract Volume but only 4.8% of Execution Volume, reflecting combos’ longer implied odds / lower execution prices.

• Combo formats are the closest PM analog to OSB parlays, which generate roughly 33% of OSB handle and 55% of OSB GGR. Combos have grown rapidly but still lag behind OSB, suggesting good headroom for growth if the product continues to improve.

2. NUMBER TO KNOW: COINBASE RAMPING FAST

• Coinbase’s prediction markets business run-rated $100mm in annualized revenue in March, the company said last week.

• That milestone came just two months after launch, the company said, hinting at the power of an installed, trading-minded user base.

• Coinbase currently acts as a broker, routing orders to Kalshi, but has its own DCM to which it may eventually transition.

• Robinhood, arguably the best comp for Coinbase, reported $147mm in 1Q26 PM revenue.

3. QUOTE OF THE WEEK: DRAFTKINGS TO PEDAL DOWN FOR WORLD CUP

• DraftKings is planning a marketing blitz around the soccer World Cup, at least in part because of the opportunity for prediction markets in states like California and Texas.

• CEO Jason Robins told analysts at 1Q26 earnings the company would spend $200-$300mm on predictions this year, ramping up marketing over summer and the back half the year.

• He said: “You know, about half the U.S., including large states like California, Texas, and Florida… have never had a World Cup like this [with access to regulated sports markets]. We’re gonna really go for it. Obviously, if the numbers are not supporting that, we will back off. But I have a feeling it will be very strong.”

• FanDuel has also pledged to spend up to $300mm on its PM product this year, potentially leading to an increase in the cost of marketing assets and CPAs across the sector.

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