Patterns Work!

Gold / Silver : Trend UP, Reversed?

How to Get in on “Dramatically” trending markets.

Also RBOB Gas, Palladium, Cocoa, Cotton and Natural Gas.

And Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Bitcoin,

Swing Trading, Day Trading, Price Action, Market Outlook and more.

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Intro

The Market Is Sending Mixed Signals — But the Patterns Are Getting Loud

Markets rarely move in straight lines—and they certainly don’t move according to our expectations.

This week was a good reminder.

The major equity indexes remain structurally bullish over the long term, yet the intermediate and short-term trends have turned decisively lower. ES is working through what could become a larger A-B-C correction, with 7,600–7,650 emerging as an important potential support zone. Crude Oil is sitting inside a tightening structure after a sharp Range Expansion decline. Gold delivered the pullback I anticipated after becoming stretched, while Silver reversed sharply after a powerful breakout.

But beneath the surface, something more interesting is developing.

Copper remains near record territory. Soybeans are breaking higher. Cotton is at a multi-year high. RBOB Gasoline has more than doubled this year. Palladium is surging. Natural Gas is beginning to show a potentially important reversal pattern.

Individually, these markets are telling different stories.

Collectively, they may be telling us something about inflation, commodities—and where capital could flow next.

That is where pattern recognition becomes valuable.

I’m not trying to predict every market. I’m looking for the moments when trend, structure, price action and repeatable patterns align.

And right now, several markets are getting very interesting.

If you want to see the specific levels, patterns and game plans I’m using for next week, this is the update you’ll want to read.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Silver : Up 18.2 %

Bitcoin : UP 16 %

Gold : UP 15 %

Friday, August 21, 2026

ES Futures (8/21/26) — The Melt-Up Is Being Tested

Current Regimes

Zone: Buy Zone
Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Short Term: Bearish
Day Trade: Bearish

ES (8/28/26): The Bull Market Is Still Intact — But Something Has Changed

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bearish

Short Term: Bearish

Recap -

For weeks, I’ve been warning that the short-term picture in ES was beginning to deteriorate. That call continues to play out.

The interesting part is that the long-term trend remains firmly bullish. This is not a call that the bull market is over. It is a recognition that markets can remain bullish on the big picture while undergoing a meaningful correction underneath the surface.

And that is exactly what I believe we are seeing now.

Last week, I highlighted the August 20 “Master” bar and its importance to the market’s next move. This week, ES gave us a fascinating sequence of price action.

Monday broke below the Master bar’s low—but sellers couldn’t follow through.

Instead, the market Cleared-Out that low and reversed higher, eventually rallying all the way back toward the Master bar’s high by Thursday.

Then Friday happened.

ES exploded above the August 20 high, only to reverse sharply lower.

That failed breakout is important because it occurred almost exactly where the intermediate-term trend comes into play—around 7,740.

Current Setup -

Now the short-term and intermediate-term structures are both pointing lower.

So what comes next?

Chart - “a-b-c” reaction down with 75 - 100% target zone.

Game Plan -

I’m watching for a potentially larger A-B-C reaction, with the final “C” wave possibly carrying ES toward the 7,600–7,650 area. My 75–100% wave projection points directly into that zone, while my previous analysis identified 7,632 as an important downside target.

But here’s where it gets interesting: I don’t necessarily want to chase the decline. I’m waiting for the market to come to me.

A decisive Clear-Out of a prior daily low could create the kind of high-probability countertrend opportunity I look for—what I call a “nibble” long.

My rule is precise: an ideal Clear-Out should penetrate approximately 20% of the 10-day ATR below the prior day’s low, then reclaim that low.

That’s the difference between simply watching the market fall and knowing what to look for when it does.

The long-term bull market may still have plenty of life left.

But before the next major advance, ES may have some unfinished business below.

That is the setup I’ll be watching next week.

Crude Oil (8/28/26) - The Market Is Coiling for a Big Move

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bearish

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap -

Crude Oil is giving us a fascinating setup right now.

The long-term trend remains bearish.

But that is only part of the story.

The intermediate- and short-term trends have turned bullish, creating a tug-of-war between the larger bearish structure and the shorter-term recovery. And this week, that battle became much more interesting.

Last week, I warned that the larger bearish trend was still in play.

On Tuesday, the market reminded us why.

Crude experienced a powerful Range Expansion sell-off, closing below the neckline of the developing Head-and-Shoulders pattern. That was an important technical development—and it raises a critical question:

Current Setup -

Has the Head-and-Shoulders pattern been negated, or is this simply part of a larger move still unfolding?

I’m not ready to declare it dead.

Because while the daily trend has weakened, the shorter-term structure is still fighting back.

Wednesday and Thursday produced a 2-Bar Mean Reversion Rally. Then Friday delivered something even more interesting: An Inside Day.

In fact, it was the third consecutive Inside Day.

When volatility contracts like this inside a larger weekly structure, I start paying very close attention. Markets can remain quiet for only so long before that compression resolves.

And I believe Crude is getting close.

Chart - Larger Weekly triangle.

Game Plan -

My game plan is straightforward: let the market tell us which way it wants to break.

I’ll be watching ORB and VRBO breakouts, particularly around Friday’s Inside Day, while also looking for Clear-Outs around Friday’s low.

The setup is tightening. The patterns are beginning to align.

And my reading of the larger chart suggests that when Crude finally breaks, the next major move is more likely to be down.

The question isn’t whether a big move is coming.

It’s whether you’re prepared to recognize it when it starts.

Read more

Markets rarely move in a straight line—and this week is a good reminder that when the market pauses, the underlying structure becomes even more important.

My weekend analysis identified a potential “Roadblock” to the Melt-Up thesis in ES. That roadblock has materialized. The S&P futures have not broken materially lower, but neither have they been able to resume the advance. For now, the market appears to be consolidating while investors await Friday’s message from Jackson Hole.

That makes this a particularly interesting point in the market cycle.

Across the major markets, we are seeing a familiar tension between trend, momentum and price structure. ES is testing an important Fibonacci and prior-high support level. Crude Oil has provided an almost textbook lesson in the interaction between trend, gaps and Opening Range Breakouts. Gold is working off an extended advance. Silver is digesting a powerful breakout. Copper has reached major resistance and is now testing support. Bitcoin continues to consolidate near elevated levels rather than experience the profit-taking one might normally expect.

The important point is that these markets are not all telling the same story—and they don’t have to.

This is where a rules-based approach becomes valuable.

Rather than trying to predict what Jackson Hole will produce, I’m watching how price responds to the levels, patterns and market structures already in place. Support either holds or it doesn’t. Breakouts either follow through or fail. Clear-Outs, ORBs, Master Bars, Narrow-Range days and other recurring patterns give us a framework for measuring those changes in probability.

And that is ultimately what I am looking for:

Not predictions. Not opinions. Probability shifts.

This week’s market action has already produced several excellent examples of that principle. Crude Oil, in particular, delivered a remarkable sequence of gap behavior and ORB setups that demonstrates why understanding how price moves can be every bit as important as knowing where it is moving.

Below is my mid-week read across the major markets—and, more importantly, the specific levels and setups I will be watching next.

After more than 35 years of watching these markets, I’ve learned that the biggest opportunities often appear when the pattern, trend, and price action suddenly align.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 12.3 %

Gold : Up 6.3 %

Silver : Down 3.1 %

Bitcoin : Down -11 %

ES Futures (8/26/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

My weekend update called a “Roadblock” to my melt up thesis. This turned out to be correct. While the market has not dropped any farther, it hasn’t rallied. The market is waiting for Friday’s commentary from Jackson Hole.

ES is holding just above it’s Fib-38% reaction level of its recent up move. This is also the level of the previous major high at 7,632.

Current Setup :

I continue to pay attention to that 7,632 support zone. The daily chart formed a “shallow” Pattern #5 - the 4 Close Reversal to the upside. Also, price may be bouncing off the bottom of a “c” bottom of an a-b-c reaction off of the highs 2 Fridays ago.

ES has a new “Master” bar; the 8/20, WR daily bar.

Game Plan :

Buy breakouts via ORB and above the high of the 8/20 daily “Master” bar.

Crude Oil (8/26/26) -

Recap :

My weekend update on Crude Oil had a bullish tone. I did note the the longer term trend, the daily trend, was down. This week demonstrates the importance of following the trend.

I also noted the Inside Day on Friday. I was expecting an up move based on the recent Head-and-Shoulders breakout up.

Monday show a downside break of Friday’s Inside Day; and a 3 Bar Equilibrium down. Monday also had a failed upside ORB. Although, the ORB only triggered on 1 of the 4 possible ORB entry methods. This was followed immediately by the downside ORB which triggered all 4 ORB entries around 85.30. Nice! A counter ORB triggered a the next day around 82.64 - 82.81.

Wednesday had another nice ORB. This time up off of the exhaustion gap down around 81.00. Price rallied above 83 before retracing.

A word on gaps. This down move showed a lesson in Gap trading. Monday was the “Breakaway” gap down - below the prior day’s low to demonstrate “extra” weakness. Tuesday was a “Mid” gap. This show little follow thru down. And Wednesday was the “Exhaustion” gap down followed by immediate price strength. Beautiful!

Current Setup :

Crude Oil has pulled right back to the Head-and-Shoulder’s “neckline” and stalled. Will it hold?

Game Plan :

Tuesday’s Wide-Range sell-off gives me pause to go long. But, I will take nibble’s long and short on ORBs and Clear-Outs of Wednesday’s NR (Narrow Range) day.

Read more

Gold : Trend UP!

Crude Oil : 3 Patterns Tell Us Probabilities

And Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Bitcoin, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Price Action, Market Outlook and more.

Become a paying subscriber now and get my 9 Patterns that Signal a Trend Change eGuide FREE. If you already are, email me for your copy.

Intro

The Melt-Up Just Hit a Roadblock?

The markets delivered a fascinating mix this week—and beneath the headlines, the charts are telling a story that I think swing traders should be paying very close attention to.

The S&P 500 finally showed some vulnerability. My longer-term “Melt-Up” thesis remains intact, but the short- and intermediate-term picture has turned bearish after ES broke down from its failed “Trend-Up, Trend-Up Confirmed” setup. The resulting 3 Bar Equilibrium reached its downside objective—and the question now is whether that was simply a correction…or the beginning of something larger.

At the same time, commodities are giving us a very different picture.

Crude Oil exploded higher, gaining roughly 5% this week as geopolitical tensions and supply concerns pushed prices higher. The technical picture was even more compelling: an Inside Day, a Dynamite Triangle and a developing Head-and-Shoulders bottom are now aligning.

Gold broke decisively higher, reaching a two-month high and posting its third consecutive weekly gain. Silver is also strong, although its narrowing ranges and long upper tails are warning that traders should be careful about chasing the move.

And then there is Bitcoin—after I had been standing aside, several of my patterns suddenly aligned and the market came alive.

That is exactly what I look for.

Not predictions. Not opinions. Patterns.

This week’s report walks through where the best setups are developing in ES, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Soybeans and Bitcoin—and, just as importantly, where I’m waiting rather than chasing.

If you want to see the specific levels, patterns and game plans I’m using for next week, this is the update you’ll want to read.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Silver : Up 11 %

Gold : UP 9 %

Cotton: UP 6 %

Friday, August 21, 2026

ES Futures (8/21/26) — The Melt-Up Is Being Tested

Current Regimes

Zone: Buy Zone
Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Short Term: Bearish
Day Trade: Bearish

Recap — The First Crack in the Melt-Up

My Melt-Up thesis for stocks remains intact—but the market has finally delivered the warning I’ve been waiting for.

Two weeks ago, ES generated a “Trend-Up, Trend-Up Confirmed” signal. That bullish setup subsequently failed when prices broke below the low of the breakout bar from Thursday, 8/13.

But the failure didn’t stop there. Thursday, Friday and the following Monday combined to create a 3 Bar Equilibrium Down pattern, giving us a clearly defined downside objective of 7,692.

That target has now been reached—and penetrated. That is important.

When a market reaches and then pushes through a pattern’s projected objective, I don’t simply assume the move is finished. Instead, I start asking a more important question:

Is the market preparing for another leg lower?

Right now, the charts suggest that possibility deserves respect.

Current Setup — Momentum Has Shifted

Short-term market structure remains decidedly bearish.

The prior high at 7,632 is now a critical level to watch. If buyers can defend that area, we could see the beginning of a tradable reaction higher. If it fails decisively, the door opens for additional downside.

The 4-hour chart is also making new swing lows, with MACD confirming the deterioration in momentum.

The message is becoming difficult to ignore:

The longer-term bull market is still alive—but the short-term tape has turned against it.

Game Plan — Don’t Chase the Breakdown

I’m not interested in selling weakness here. Instead, I’m watching for Clear-Outs of prior-day lows.

That’s where the opportunity may appear. If ES pushes below a prior low, flushes weak longs from the market, and then quickly recaptures the level, we have the kind of price action I want to see for a long trade.

The key is patience.

The Melt-Up thesis hasn’t been invalidated. But right now, ES is asking the bulls to prove it.

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Crude Oil (8/21/26) — Three Patterns. One Message.

Current Regimes

Long Term: Bearish
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Short Term: Bullish

Recap — The Patterns Were There

I’ve been bullish Crude Oil for several weeks—even while the long-term trend remains bearish.

Why? Because the shorter-term chart was beginning to tell a different story.

Last weekend, I highlighted two bullish patterns that had the potential to shift the probabilities:

1. 2 Bar Mean Reversion

2. Friday’s Inside Day

Then the chart gave us something even more interesting:

A Dynamite Triangle on the daily bars.

Three separate pieces of technical evidence were beginning to point in the same direction. That matters.

Rule : Buy breakout of an Inside Bar when other bullish patterns are confirming.

That is exactly what happened. Crude exploded higher this week, gaining more than $4—or nearly 5%. The important lesson isn’t simply that Crude rallied.

It’s why the rally was identifiable before it happened.

Current Setup — The Trend Hasn’t Caught Up Yet

Here’s where things get particularly interesting.

The long-term trend is still down, but both the intermediate- and short-term trends are now bullish.

Friday produced another Inside Day Up.

Tuesday and Wednesday created a Dynamite Triangle Up.

And perhaps most importantly, the daily chart is now developing a Head-and-Shoulders Bottom.

If that pattern completes, its projected objective points toward approximately $94.00.

The bigger trend may still be bearish—but the market is building a case for a much larger countertrend move.

Game Plan — Follow the Confirmation

I’m looking for breakouts through ORBs and VRBOs to participate on the upside.

I’ll also be watching closely for Clear-Outs around Friday’s low.

This is exactly the kind of setup I want to see:

Multiple patterns pointing in the same direction before committing capital.

One pattern can fail.

Two patterns can fail.

But when three independent patterns begin telling the same story, the probabilities change.

And that is what I trade.

Not predictions. Probabilities.

Chart: Daily chart showing Head-and-Shoulders bottom.

Read more

Major Rally in ES and stocks called and still in play.

Soybean Rally Called.

The Next Move May Be Setting Up Now

Something important may be developing across the markets—and the next few sessions could tell us whether this is simply another short-term reaction or the beginning of the next major leg higher.

Last weekend, I wrote that the Trend-Up / Trend-Up Confirmed condition had been triggered in ES and reiterated my Melt-Up thesis: a potentially dramatic summer and early-fall rally toward 8,550. But markets rarely move in a straight line.

ES subsequently dropped more than 100 points, providing exactly the kind of reaction I was concerned about after such an extended advance. Now the question becomes much more interesting:

Was that decline the warning—or the opportunity?

Several markets are now sitting at critical technical junctures. ES is working a 4-hour mean-reversion setup. Crude has followed an Inside Day with a nearly $3 rally and is compressing into another potentially explosive pattern. Gold has produced another remarkable reversal, while Silver has decisively broken from a multi-day Master Bar.

And beneath the surface, the message from the charts is remarkably consistent:

Momentum is still present—but many markets are becoming stretched.

That creates both opportunity and danger.

In this mid-week update, I’ll walk through the setups I’m watching most closely, where I’m willing to buy, where I’m standing aside, and—most importantly—what would have to happen next to confirm the bigger moves I’m anticipating.

After more than 35 years of watching these markets, I’ve learned that the biggest opportunities often appear when the pattern, trend, and price action suddenly align.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 13 %

Gold : Up 4 %

Silver : Down 6.3 %

Bitcoin : Down -22 %

ES Futures (8/19/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

My weekend update called a “Trend-Up / Trend-Up Confirmed.” I reiterated my “Melt-Up” theme for ES (stocks) to make a dramatic rally this summer and early fall. My call was a rally in ES to 8,550 over the next 10 weeks.

I stated trepidation at taking long positions at such elevated levels; even though ES was near its short term trend. ES went below its short term trend and fell over 100 points. This also pulled the intermediate term price closer to its trend.

Current Setup :

I stated to buy break-outs. ES had none until Wednesday. I am currently long the Russell via an ORB. The Russell is a smaller; and IMO a less risky volatile market than ES. The short term trend is sloping down but turning up.

The 4 Hour chart is working a 2 bar mean reversion. That dictates a long position with stop under 7,720. Could maybe put stop below 7,710. This is half a range below the 1pm bar.

Game Plan :

The 4 Hour chart is working a 2 bar mean reversion. That dictates a long position with stop under 7,720. Could maybe put stop below 7,710. This is half a range below the 1pm bar.

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Crude Oil (8/19/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

I noted Friday’s Crude Oil had an Inside Day as a key chart pattern. Inside Days can provide useful triggers for the market’s next move. Here, Crude had rallied into Friday. So, I expected a rally out of the Inside Day. That is exactly what we got. The rally sent prices almost $3 higher. Win!

Current Setup :

The Crude Oil long-term trend is still down. With the short-term prices playing right around trend. These are great places to trade.

The daily bars are setting a “Dynamite Triangle.” Yes, again. This is a quick move up / down, followed by massive range compression.

Game Plan :

Buy Breakouts and Short-term Trend reversal from down to up.

Read more

Covered this issue :

S&P500 : ES to 8,550 in 10 weeks

Gold : My “Toppy” Call was Spot On!

Crude Oil : Friday is an Action Bar.

And Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Bitcoin, Swing Trading, Day Trading, Price Action, Market Outlook and more.

Become a paying subscriber now and get my 9 Patterns that Signal a Trend Change eGuide FREE. If you already are, email me for your copy.

The Charts Are Talking. Are You Listening?

The markets are moving—and if you know what to look for, the clues are already there.

This week delivered another powerful example of why I believe trading is about recognizing patterns and probabilities—not predicting the future.

ES has now confirmed the next leg of the rally, with the weekly chart posting its highest close ever. My “Melt-Up” thesis continues to unfold, and I’m now watching whether the S&P futures can reach 8,550 over the next 10 weeks. But the bigger question isn’t simply where ES is going. It’s where the next high-probability entry will appear.

And ES isn’t the only market setting up.

Silver, Gold, and Copper are among the strongest momentum commodities of the past month. Silver is up 12%, Gold 9%, and Copper 6%. Yet strength alone isn’t enough for me to chase a market. The real opportunity comes when momentum, trend, patterns, and entry zones begin to align.

That’s exactly what I’m looking for this weekend.

Crude Oil has produced a nice rally, but a potential trend change now gives us an important decision point. Gold delivered a textbook example of what happens when a market becomes stretched—and my call for a reaction came remarkably close to the actual low. Silver may now be approaching another opportunity, with a major breakout level just ahead.

Meanwhile, Copper is back in a buy zone, Soybeans may have completed a reaction, and T-Bonds remain one of the most interesting—and potentially important—markets on my radar.

After more than three decades of watching these markets, I’ve learned that the best trades rarely announce themselves. They reveal themselves through repeatable patterns.

This weekend’s report walks through those patterns, the key levels I’m watching, and—most importantly—my game plan for where I believe the next opportunities may develop.

If you want to trade what the charts are actually telling us rather than what we hope the markets will do, this is a report you’ll want to read.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

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Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Silver : Up 11 %

Gold : UP 9 %

Cotton: UP 6 %

ES Futures (8/14/26) — Is 8,550 the Next Major Target?

Current Regimes

Zone: Buy Zone below 7,794
Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Short Term: Bullish
Day Trade: Bearish

Recap

The ES trend structure continues to strengthen.

Two weeks ago, the market generated what I identified as a “Trend Up” signal. This week, that signal moved into the more important “Trend Up Confirmed” phase. In the context of my broader Melt-Up thesis, this represents the next—and potentially final—leg of the current advance.

The weekly chart reinforced that view by registering its highest close on record, confirming that the primary trend remains firmly constructive.

There was, however, an important short-term test during the week. Wednesday’s session closed below the short-term trend, creating the potential for a deeper reaction. In my mid-week update, I outlined a tactical buy opportunity on a recovery back above short-term trend, then located near 7,775 and declining.

That setup triggered Wednesday night. ES posted two consecutive closes back above trend and generated a buy signal around 7,771.

The response was decisive.

Over the following 12 hours, ES advanced nearly 70 points, providing another example of why I place greater emphasis on price structure and repeatable setups than on attempting to predict every market fluctuation.

Current Setup

With the intermediate- and short-term trends now aligned to the upside, the focus shifts from direction to destination—and, more importantly, entry.

The Fibonacci extensions identified last week remain active:

• 1.38 extension: 8,012

• 1.62 extension: 8,131

• Full-wave projection: 8,550

The 8,550 objective is derived from a full-wave extension of the advance from the August 6 reaction low. Reaching that level would represent a substantial continuation of the current Melt-Up structure and places the market approximately 10 weeks out from the potential target.

But having an upside target is only half the equation.

The critical question now is whether ES can continue higher without becoming excessively extended, or whether the market provides another controlled pullback that offers a more attractive risk/reward entry.

At present, the short-term structure remains constructive. The 30-minute trend is approximately 7,801, placing current price action close to trend rather than materially extended from it.

That is an important distinction.

When a market is extended, I prefer patience. When price is trading near a rising trend with momentum and multiple time frames aligned, the probability profile changes.

Game Plan

Buy breakouts.

I remain focused on upside continuation while the bullish trend structure remains intact. The first objectives are 8,012 and 8,131, with 8,550 representing the larger Melt-Up projection.

The key is not chasing the market.

Let the chart provide the entry, define the risk, and then let the trend do the work.

Chart: Daily ES showing the 138%, 162%, and 100% wave-projection targets.

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Crude Oil Futures (8/14/26) — Friday’s Action Bar

Current Regimes

Zone: Buy Zone
Long Term: Bearish
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Short Term: Bullish

Recap

Crude Oil continues to present an interesting divergence between the longer-term trend and the emerging intermediate-term structure.

Last week, I identified a potential long setup but remained cautious because the long-term trend was still bearish. That caution was warranted from a risk-management perspective, but the trade ultimately performed well.

My mid-week analysis then highlighted the possibility of an imminent reversal in the intermediate-term trend from bullish to bearish. That signal materialized Thursday as Crude experienced a sharp one-day sell-off.

Importantly, I do not view that decline as a fundamental change in the larger structure.

I remain constructive on Crude Oil over the longer term, primarily because the early-August advance exceeded the magnitude of the late-July rally. From a price-structure perspective, that is significant: the market is demonstrating an increasing ability to attract buyers at higher levels.

In other words, demand appears to be strengthening.

Friday provided another important piece of evidence.

The 9:30 bar sold off directly into the established buy area created by the prior two High-of-Low Bars. Price found support in that area and subsequently recovered, creating a potentially actionable setup.

Current Setup

The time-frame structure remains mixed—but increasingly constructive.

The daily trend remains bearish, while both the intermediate- and short-term trends are bullish. This creates an important transition zone in which the next directional break could provide valuable information about the market’s larger trend.

Friday’s price action adds another layer to the setup.

The session formed an Inside Day Up, effectively compressing the market after the recent volatility. Inside Days can provide useful directional triggers when they occur within an established trend or at a meaningful support/resistance area.

That is precisely what makes Friday’s bar interesting.

The key levels I am watching are the buy area established by the prior High-of-Low Bars and R1 near 83.00.

A sustained move through resistance would strengthen the bullish case; a downside break of the Inside Day would provide an important warning that the recent recovery is losing momentum.

Game Plan

Buy upside breakouts using ORBs and VRBOs.

I will also be watching for a decisive breakout above or below Friday’s Inside Day range.

The objective is not to predict which direction Crude will take. The objective is to let price reveal the direction and then participate when the probability shifts in our favor.

For now, the evidence remains constructive.

The long-term trend has work to do—but the buyers are beginning to make their presence felt.

Chart: 30-minute Crude Oil chart showing the 9:30 bar testing the buy area of the prior two High-of-Low Bars, the Buy Zone in the upper half of the low bar, and R1 at 83.00.

Read more

Recent Market Calls :

Major Rally in ES and stocks called and still in play.

Crude Oil rally called but walked back.

Introduction

The Melt-Up Continues—but the Charts Are Starting to Talk

The markets continue to do something I’ve been talking about for weeks: they are climbing the Wall of Worry.

Two weeks ago, the technical picture in ES was lining up beautifully. My Pattern #5 — the 4 Close Reversal Up — appeared. Pattern #4 — the 3 High Reversal Up — followed. My Rate-of-Change indicator surged to monthly highs, and the upside “Air” finally broke after several attempts.

The message from the charts was clear: the odds favored a major move higher.

We got it.

ES rallied approximately 4% to last week’s high, while the Nasdaq and Russell also continued to participate. My larger “Melt-Up” thesis remains intact, with 8,000–8,131 now my immediate ES target.

But after a move like that, the question changes.

It’s no longer “Can the market rally?” It’s “Where is the lower-risk entry?”

That distinction matters.

This week, I’ve been much more interested in buying pullbacks and watching how price behaves around trend rather than chasing extended breakouts. ES has held remarkably well near its highs, while the Russell—which had been lagging—is finally showing the strength I wanted to see.

Meanwhile, the commodity markets are telling several different stories.

Crude has exploded nearly 8% from last Friday’s low, while Gold and Silver continue higher but are beginning to show potential topping patterns. Copper remains in a powerful long-term uptrend, Soybeans are reacting to this week’s USDA supply/demand data, and Bonds continue to flash a warning.

And that last market may be the most important one of all.

The Bond market remains my linchpin.

The charts are bullish—but they are not giving us permission to become complacent.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 13 %

Gold : Down 1.9 %

Silver : Down 6.5 %

Bitcoin : Down -28 %

ES Futures (8/12/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

Two weeks ago I highlighted the following patterns in ES as reasons to be (very) bullish last week. Those reasons were :

1. My Pattern #5 - 4 Close Reversal Up

2. My Pattern # 4 - 3 High Reversal Up

3. My Rate-of-Change indicator surged to monthly highs

4. Upside Air was broken after multiple attempts.

Patterns #4 and #5 are part of my “9 Patterns Which Signal a Trend Change” guide. This is free to paid subscribers.

Last week ES got the breakout and rally I expected. ES was up an amazing 4% to its high last week. I’ve been calling for a “Melt-Up” in stock prices; especially ES and Nasdaq.

My immediate ES target is 8,000 - 8,131 based on Fibonacci extensions of prior moves. Monday had a failed breakout on Tuesday (day session). The night session breakout up did work out nicely. I played the Russell. I believe it to be lower risk than ES.

After such a move as 4% up in one week. A better strategy would have been to buy PULLBACKS instead of BREAKOUTS. The 30 minute chart had 2 successful bounces of trend so far this week; before Tuesday finally broke through to the downside.

Current Setup :

ES price is still congesting and holding the highs attained last week. Zooming in, ES has a tight a-b-c reaction down.

I noted last week that the Russell was lagging ES and needed to prove itself. It has with the Russell making new new move highs this week.

Game Plan :

I will be a buyer of breakouts and a move back above Trend on the 30 minute chart currently at 7,775.

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Crude Oil (8/12/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

Aggressive traders could have bought breakouts in Crude Oil this week as I said in prior update. I walked that back as both the Long and Intermediate term trends were down. That turned out to be the right call.

Rule : Know when to go against the trend - RARE.

I noted the bounce off of the High of the Low Bar on Friday around 76.70. Crude Oil is up almost $6 from there; that’s almost 8%.

Current Setup :

The Crude Oil long-term and short-term trends are both down. With the short-term just dropping negative. The intermediate term trend is threatening a break from positive to negative.

The daily bars are setting a “Dynamite Triangle.” This is a quick move up / down, followed by massive range compression.

Rate-of-Change is showing a positive divergence; higher R-O-C than prices. This suggest higher Crude Oil prices.

Game Plan :

Buy Breakouts and Short-term Trend reversal from down to up.

Read more

S&P500 : Rally Called - Market Delivered.

Gold : The Breakout We’ve All Been Waiting For?

Crude Oil : Nailed it, Again.

And Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Bitcoin,

Swing Trading, Day Trading, Price Action, Market Outlook and more.

Become a paying subscriber now and get my 9 Patterns that Signal a Trend Change eGuide FREE. If you already are, email me for your copy.

Intro

The Melt-Up Is Here. Now Comes the Hard Part: Knowing Where to Buy.

The market finally delivered.

For weeks, I’ve been talking about the possibility of a powerful “Melt-Up.” Last week, the setup was becoming increasingly compelling. This week, the S&P 500 exploded higher, gaining more than 3% and pushing to new all-time highs. The Dow joined the party, while the Nasdaq and Russell surged but still have something to prove.

And this wasn’t simply a case of getting lucky on direction.

The patterns were there.

My 4 Close Reversal, 3 High Reversal, surging Rate-of-Change momentum, and repeated attempts to break the upside “Air” were all telling the same story. On Monday, my longer-term Rubicon system triggered a buy. Then, when ES pulled back toward the short-term trend, the area I highlighted as a potential buying opportunity was tested within just a handful of points.

That is what I’m looking for in this newsletter: not predictions, but patterns, areas and probabilities.

Now the question gets more interesting.

What happens after a 250-point rally?

ES is already setting up multiple continuation patterns, including a Dynamite Triangle, Reverse L-Formation and 2 Bar Mean Reversion. My Fibonacci projections point toward 8,000–8,131—with the larger Melt-Up scenario potentially reaching the 9,000 area.

But equities aren’t the only market making noise.

Gold exploded higher after finally breaking out of a multi-week congestion zone. Silver is threatening to resolve its own massive range. Copper remains near record highs. Crude has collapsed from its recent highs. Soybeans are sitting at a critical trend intersection. And T-Bonds remain firmly bearish.

Meanwhile, the latest U.S. employment report showed an unexpected decline of 23,000 jobs in July, helping push Treasury yields lower and giving stocks another catalyst for the rally. The S&P 500 closed Friday at another record high.

The big question isn’t whether markets are moving.

They are.

The question is:

Which moves are worth chasing—and which ones should be bought only after the inevitable pullback?

That is where the charts become especially interesting this week.

Inside this week’s report, I lay out the trends, patterns, breakout levels, pullback areas, momentum signals and mechanical systems I’m watching across ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, T-Bonds and Bitcoin—including the levels where I believe the risk/reward becomes attractive.

The rally may have arrived.

Now it’s time to figure out how to trade it.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Crude Oil : Up 11 %

Cotton : UP 9 %

Copper : UP 7 %

Friday, August 7, 2026

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ES (8/7/26) - Rally Called - Market Delivered!

Current Regimes -

Zone : Buy zone below 7752.

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Short Term: Bullish

Day Trade: Bullish.

Recap -

Two weeks ago I called the down move (to within 23 points of the low). Then last week, I got excited for the continuation of the “Melt-Up” I’ve been expecting for weeks and maybe even months.

That got delivered upon this week. Stocks made dramatic moves higher. S&P’s and the Dow hit new all time highs. The Nasdaq and Russell did not follow suit. I believe they will.

A few patterns I alerted you to were :

1. My Pattern #5 - 4 Close Reversal Up

2. My Pattern # 4 - 3 High Reversal Up

3. My Rate-of-Change indicator surged to monthly highs

4. Upside Air was broken after multiple attempts.

These are the patterns I’ve been using for over 35 years.

For the week, ES is up over 3%; or, over 250 points.

ES triggered a “Rubicon” buy signal on Monday. “Rubicon” is my long-term / trend-following mechanical system.

My Mid-Week update highlighted buy potential around the short term trend; then at 7,718. Thursday, price reached a low of 7,724. Again, trading is about “areas.” It is not about specific points. This call was spot on.

Current Setup -

ES is setting up a great continuation (up) pattern. Or, should I say patterns. First, is the Dynamite Triangle. This is a tightening of the ranges after a move. We have that.

Second, is the Reverse L-Formation. An “L-formation” is a dramatic move down with the next few bars holding tightly around the move’s low. A “Reverse L-formation” is the Bullish opposite case.

Third, is the 2 Bar Mean Reversion. Tuesday was a Wide-Range up bar. Wednesday and Thursday showed a narrowing of the ranges and successive lower closes. Friday was the buy, breakout day.

I expect prices to get a Fib 1.62 - 2.00 extension here. This puts prices up to 8,000 - 8,131.

The longer term “Melt-Up” scenario which could play out over the next few weeks to months has price going to 9,000 range. Then … ?

Chart - Daily bar with L-formation, Dynamite Triangle and Fib 162% projection.

Game Plan -

Buying breakouts.

Crude Oil (8/7/26) - Nailed It, AGAIN!

Current Regimes -

Zone: Sell Zone

Long Term: Bearish

Intermediate Term: Bearish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap -

Last week I was Bearish in spite of the Bullish Engulfing Bar on Friday.

Why? The speed and depth of the reaction from the 7/23 highs and clear-out of the daily trend told me so.

What I got wrong was the depth of this reaction. I expected a move down to $80. Tuesday blew through the prior pivot low with prices reaching a $74 handle.

Current Setup -

While the Daily and Intermediate terms are trend down, the short term is trend up and has bounced solidly off of that trend once already.

Chart - 30 minute bar with Buy Zone - top half of low bar.

Game Plan -

I was going to write “take Nibbles long in top half of Wednesday’s “Low Bar” range; 75.50 to 76.70.” However, with both the Long and Intermediate term trends being down, “stand aside” is the safe strategy. Aggressive traders might consider the Nibbles Long.

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Written at close of market Wednesday @ 4:00 pm, EST.

Recent Market Calls :

Major Rally in ES and stocks CORRECTLY CALLED.

Buy Copper CORRECTLY CALLED.

In Gold, I said to buy bounces off of the intermediate term trend at $4,071. Monday, prices reached a low of $4,074 and bounced. Close enough!

Introduction

The Biggest Moves Rarely Feel Obvious at the Beginning

The biggest profits in trading rarely come from reacting to headlines. They come from recognizing subtle shifts in market behavior before everyone else sees them.

That’s exactly what happened this week.

Last weekend, I argued that the correction was ending and that the next leg of the Melt-Up had likely begun. The evidence wasn’t based on opinions or economic forecasts. It came from a rare alignment of proprietary chart patterns that I’ve developed and refined over more than 35 years of studying price action.

This week, those patterns delivered exactly what they were forecasting.

The S&P 500 pushed to fresh all-time highs. Gold exploded higher after triggering multiple buy signals. Copper continued its powerful breakout, while several other markets reached critical decision points that could define the next major move.

But markets don’t stay stretched forever.

Several of my momentum indicators are now approaching levels where discipline becomes just as important as conviction. Some markets are setting up for continuation. Others are approaching profit-taking zones. A few may be preparing for meaningful reversals.

In this mid-week update, I’ll show you exactly what I’m seeing across the ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, and Bitcoin—including where I believe the highest-probability opportunities are developing next.

If you’ve ever wondered how professional traders anticipate major moves before they become obvious, this report will give you a front-row seat to the process.

Because the best trades aren’t found by predicting the future.

They are found by recognizing when probability quietly shifts in your favor.

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Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 13 %

Gold : Down 1.8 %

Silver : Down 11.5 %

Bitcoin : Down -26 %

ES Futures (8/5/26) -

Recap :

Last week the Patterns Aligned for a big rally. We got it this week. New All-Time-Highs.

Some of the my reasons my previous update was extremely bullish are …

1. My Pattern #5 - 4 Close Reversal Up

2. My Pattern # 4 - 3 High Reversal Up

3. My Rate-of-Change indicator surged to monthly highs

4. Upside Air was broken after multiple attempts.

All these are patterns which are unique to me and my style of chart reading. This is why you are here; over 35 years of chart reading experience. Patterns #4 and #5 are part of my “9 Patterns Which Signal a Trend Change” guide. This is free to paid subscribers.

Last update, I called for an end of the correction; and a resumption of my “Melt-Up” theme. I firmly believe ES can go much higher; maybe 1000+ points higher. And, in short order.

Current Setup :

It is still early in the week to talk the current weekly bar, but here goes. The weekly bar is forming a possible “Yum-Yum” break into ATH’s. A “Yum-Yum” is a Wide Range bar with low open (in the bullish case) and high close. For this to be valid, I need this week to close within 15% of its high.

Today, Wednesday was a Clear-Out of Tuesday’s massive rally bar’s high.

Rule : Sell above the Wide Range bar’s high. Meaning take profits. I did.

My “2 Bar Mean Reversion” pattern calls for Thursday to be a (relatively) Narrow Range bar; closing below it’s open and Wednesday’s close. It should also hold above Tuesday’s midpoint of 7,721.

Game Plan :

I will be a buyer on the short term chart around the trend; currently at 7,718.

I will also take “Nibbles” long on breakouts.

Gold (8/5/26) -

Recap :

I was still bullish last update. Although, cautious.

I said to buy bounces off of the intermediate term trend at $4,071. Monday, prices reached a low of $4,074 and bounced. This IS CLOSE ENOUGH. Trading is an ART and a science. This was also a Clear-Out of Friday’s low - which is a SOS - Sign of Strength.

I recommended getting long ORBs. Tuesday morning had a great one around 9:15 am at $4,143.

Gold is over $160 higher from that level.

My Head-and-Shoulders target of $4,232 was reached and exceeded. Classic patterns work.

Current Setup :

Wednesday Gold action formed a Yum-Yum breakout to month-and-a-half highs.

My Rate-of-Change momentum indicator is at levels not crossed since April, 2026. Gold was $4,800. Does this mean Gold goes to $4,800. I think so. First it has to break trend on the daily (long term) bars.

The Intermediate and Short term time frames are stretched well above trend. As I said previously don’t let your investment ship get “far from shore.” Meaning try to take positions around the trend.

That said, the daily trend is still down with that trend at 4,437; less than $130 higher. Will prices carry through to that level and maybe bounce.

Game Plan :

Wait for pullbacks to trend on short and intermediate terms - watch my notes for my updates on these.

Read more

S&P500 / Stock market melt up starting now,

Bonds to drop 44% ?

Bitcoin to $23,434?

And Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Bitcoin,

Swing Trading, Day Trading, Price Action, Market Outlook and more.

Become a paying subscriber now and get my 9 Patterns that Signal a Trend Change eGuide FREE. If you already are, email me for your copy.

Intro

Fed Shock, Bond Warning, and the Return of Momentum: The Setups That Could Define August

This week reminded traders why markets reward preparation—not prediction.

The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting initially rattled investors, sending stocks sharply lower before buyers stepped in with conviction. At the same time, crude oil completed one of the strongest reversals of the summer, gold continued to wrestle with a failed breakout, Treasury bonds pushed toward critical long-term support, and Bitcoin remained trapped in what appears to be the early stages of a much larger decline.

Behind all the headline noise, however, something more important happened.

The market began revealing where institutional money is flowing.

Last weekend, I warned subscribers that the S&P futures were likely headed for 7,300–7,325 following a Triangle breakdown. This week, the market bottomed at 7,323 before launching a powerful reversal. My mid-week update also identified Tuesday’s low in crude oil as a buying opportunity, and once again, price responded almost exactly as anticipated.

Those aren’t lucky guesses.

They’re the result of following repeatable market behavior—recognizing patterns, understanding momentum, and waiting patiently for high-probability trade locations instead of reacting emotionally to headlines.

This week’s report highlights several markets that may be approaching major inflection points. Has the correction in equities already run its course? Is the long-awaited Melt-Up back on? Has Gold’s Head-and-Shoulders breakout officially failed, or is another opportunity developing? Why do Treasury Bonds concern me more than any other market right now? And which commodities continue to offer the strongest momentum heading into August?

Inside, I break down each market using the same rules-based methodology I’ve refined over more than three decades as a professional commodity trader and former futures broker. You’ll find the exact chart patterns, trend levels, momentum signals, and trade locations I’m watching—not opinions, not predictions, but a disciplined framework for navigating whatever the market delivers next.

If you’re serious about improving your trading, remember this:

The biggest opportunities don’t come from knowing the news. They come from recognizing the patterns before everyone else does.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

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Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Crude Oil : Up 20 %

Cotton : UP 12 %

Copper : UP 9 %

Friday, July 31, 2026

ES (7/31/26) – The Shakeout Is Complete. My Downside Target Was SPOT ON.

Current Regimes

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bullish - Just turned up.

Short Term: Bullish

Day Trade: Bullish.

Recap

One week ago, I warned that the market wasn’t ready for another leg higher.

While the headlines remained optimistic, the charts were telling a different story. The combination of a 3-Bar Equilibrium Down pattern and the longer-term Triangle Breakout pointed to one conclusion: expect a shakeout before the next advance.

That triangle projected a downside target between 7,300 and 7,325.

This week, the S&P futures fell to 7,323—almost perfectly tagging the objective before buyers stepped back in aggressively.

That’s the value of objective technical analysis. Rather than reacting to news, we allow the market’s structure to tell us where probabilities shift.

Following Wednesday’s Fed-induced selloff, I expected several days of sideways congestion. Instead, the market gave us something even more constructive—a classic 2-Bar Flip-Flop reversal right around the June 26 pivot low, signaling that sellers had likely exhausted themselves.

Current Setup

The character of the market changed quickly after the shakeout.

Thursday—the session immediately following the Fed announcement—produced a Pattern 5-4 Close Reversal, a strong indication that institutional buyers were stepping back into the market.

Friday added further confirmation with a Pattern 4-3 High Reversal while also breaking the three-week downtrend line. Although Friday’s range was narrower than Thursday’s, the important message was that buyers maintained control after the initial reversal.

Momentum is confirming the price action.

My Rate-of-Change indicator has surged to its strongest reading in more than a month—even stronger than early July when ES was trading roughly 100 points higher. When momentum strengthens while prices remain below previous highs, it often signals that buying pressure is building beneath the surface.

The Nasdaq is telling a similar story.

Last week, it decisively broke below its Daily Trend just under 28,000, triggering widespread concern. But Thursday’s rally produced what I call a Clear-Out—a brief move below support that quickly reversed back above the trend level. The Nasdaq has now closed above that level for two consecutive sessions.

That’s a classic buy signal.

These “Clear-Outs” are designed to force weak hands out of positions before the larger trend resumes. They often become some of the lowest-risk opportunities available.

Trading Philosophy

One of my favorite sayings is:

“Don’t let your investment ship drift too far from shore.”

In practical terms, it means initiate positions as close as possible to major trend changes instead of chasing extended moves.

That philosophy forms the foundation of my 9 Patterns That Signal a Trend Change eGuide, available free to all paid subscribers. If you’re a paid subscriber and haven’t received your copy yet, simply send me an email.

It’s also the core of my Tri-Phase Trading Approach.

Rather than guessing direction, I identify the Long-Term, Intermediate-Term, and Short-Term trends, then look to initiate trades near the corresponding trend level. Trading with the trend while entering near support dramatically improves both risk management and reward potential.

Chart Focus

5–15 Minute Weekly Chart

Pay close attention to the grey box on the chart.

This represents the final area of “Air” surrounding the July 23 daily bar. Notice how that zone acted as resistance multiple times before finally breaking. Markets have an excellent memory, and these former areas of imbalance frequently become important decision points during future rallies and pullbacks.

Game Plan

I believe the Melt-Up is ready to resume next week.

The correction I anticipated has largely run its course, momentum has turned higher, multiple reversal patterns have appeared, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reclaimed critical technical levels.

The primary risk remains the bond market. If Treasury yields remain orderly, I expect equities to continue working higher.

My strategy remains unchanged.

I’ll be looking to buy breakouts, buy momentum, and buy shallow pullbacks—reactions that retrace less than 50% of the prior advance.

The best trends often begin immediately after they’ve convinced the majority that they’re over.

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Written at close of market Wednesday @ 4:00 pm, EST.

Recent Market Calls :

My call for further ES (Stock Market) weakness is coming to pass.

Major pattern failure in Crude Oil.

“11 O’Clock” rule success in Copper

Remember, Rate-of-Change signals only good for 1 - 5 days.

Introduction

As we head into the final two trading sessions of July, the commodity markets are doing exactly what disciplined traders should expect after extended directional moves—they’re forcing participants to separate conviction from emotion. Volatility has increased, headlines surrounding today’s FOMC announcement have dominated financial media, and many traders are once again reacting to every news headline instead of following what price is actually saying.

Fortunately, our recent market road map continues to unfold remarkably well. Last weekend I wrote that the S&P 500 was vulnerable to a “shakeout below 7,400.” That decline is now underway, with ES futures reaching within a few points of my projected downside objective. Gold also behaved almost exactly as anticipated, pulling back into the buy zone I identified before finding support after the FOMC decision. Meanwhile, Copper continues to reward traders willing to buy momentum, while Soybeans and Bitcoin have validated the importance of waiting for high-probability setups rather than chasing price.

One of the biggest lessons I learned during more than three decades as a professional commodity trader is that successful trading is rarely about predicting every market move. Instead, it’s about recognizing when the probabilities shift in your favor and having the discipline to act only when those opportunities appear. That’s why I continue to focus on repeatable market behaviors such as Triangle breakouts, Opening Range Breakouts (ORBs), Air Zones, Clear-Outs, Master Bars, and momentum shifts instead of opinions or economic forecasts.

In today’s mid-week update, I’ll show you where those probabilities are changing across the S&P 500, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, and Bitcoin—and, more importantly, where I believe the highest-probability trading opportunities may develop as we close out the week.

As always, our objective isn’t to predict every tick—it’s to identify the highest-probability setups, manage risk, and let the market do the heavy lifting. The second half of this week should provide several outstanding opportunities if these developing trends continue to unfold.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 7.0 %

Gold : Down 6.7 %

Silver : Down 17.5 %

Bitcoin : Down -27.7 %

ES Futures (7/30/26) -

Recap :

The headline of my ES commentary in my last weekend update called for a “shakeout below 7,400.” This is exactly what we are getting right now. I based this on the 3 Day Equilibrium down on the daily bars.

Two weeks ago I highlighted the Triangle breakout down. I had a downside target of 7,300 on that breakout. Price reached a low of 7,327 today. I would say that is 75% target ACHIEVED. Although, price can still fall more; maybe to my full downside target of 7,300.

Note that today’s overnight action carried prices right up the previous downside “air” at 7,500. This was around the 7/23 bar. When I say “around” I mean the bars encompassing the bar itself and the bars before and after. “Air” is a 3 bar pattern.

Current Setup :

Daily trend is at 7,229. Will prices reach down that far? Maybe.

Price is currently right in the middle of the low bar of the Previous Pivot Low. That bar’s low is 7,232. A break of that low and prices could drop dramatically. I don’t think that will happen.

HOWEVER, Nasdaq has decisively broken below its daily trend. This is the tech / AI bubble bursting.

Will this drag down the entire market?

Game Plan :

Mostly stand aside. Expect Narrow Range days to close out the week.

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Gold (7/30/26) -

Zone :

Recap :

I’ve been bullish Gold since the Head-and-Shoulders breakout. I was concerned last week over the pullback in price. I called it a retest of the “Neckline.” It turned out to be an a-b-c reaction to the breakout. With the FOMC as the catalyst to bounce prices up.

I called for the buy zone in the bottom quarter of the weekly “Master” bar. That zone was $3,975 to $4,041. Thursday had prices drop to $4,011 - squarely in the middle of my buy zone.

Current Setup :

Wednesday had a Pattern 5 - “4 Close Reversal” up. Although the close was weak. I’m still expecting prices to rally from here.

I still have a Head-and-Shoulders target of $4,232.

Game Plan :

Buying momo.

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Rate-of-Change (ROC) is a momentum indicator which measures price movement over a specific time. I’m using ROC with a mean reversion and trend filter overlay. Meaning, I’m keying on markets mean-reverting to their overall trend.

“Buy” and “Sell” signals are given where generated. Entries…

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My answer may surprise you.

While most commentators are becoming increasingly nervous about weakening momentum, stretched valuations, rising geopolitical tensions, and persistent uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, my long-term outlook remains unchanged. I still believe the path of least resistance for stocks is ultimately higher. In fact, I continue to see the potential for a final “Melt-Up” phase that could carry the S&P futures toward the 8,500 area. But before that happens, the market may need to finish the correction that is currently underway.

This week’s report dives deeply into the technical evidence behind that forecast.

Gold delivered another textbook example of why traders must separate emotion from price action. After breaking out of a major Head-and-Shoulders bottom, the market immediately punished late buyers with a sharp retracement. Is the breakout dead? Or is this simply a retest before a run toward new highs?

Silver continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, crude oil is displaying one of the strongest momentum profiles I’ve seen in months, copper is behaving almost exactly as anticipated, soybeans have triggered a major bullish pattern with substantial upside potential, and Bitcoin is showing warning signs that many crypto traders are ignoring.

Inside this week’s premium report, I break down every market using the same rules-based methodology I’ve relied on throughout my career as a professional commodity trader and former futures broker. No opinions. No predictions based on headlines. Just price action, trend structure, probability, and risk management.

If you’re looking for television-style market commentary, this isn’t it.

If you’re looking for actionable trade locations, key support and resistance levels, ORB opportunities, Clear-Out setups, momentum triggers, and the specific price levels I’m watching for next week’s trades, you’re in the right place.

Let’s get to work.

Become a paid subscriber today and receive the complete weekly report, including annotated charts, exact price levels, and the same swing-trading framework I use every week to navigate the futures markets.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Crude Oil : Up 27% - Called bottom here to paid subscribers

Soybeans : Up 13% - Called breakout here to paid subscribers

Cotton : UP 11%

Friday, July 17, 2026

ES (7/24/26) – One More Shakeout Below 7,400… Then the Melt-Up Begins?

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bullish

• Intermediate Term: Bearish

• Short Term: Bearish

• Day Trade: Bearish
  

ES Recap – Last Week’s Bearish Call Continues to Play Out

Last weekend, I turned short-term bearish after the market completed a large Triangle breakdown—a pattern I’ve been highlighting for weeks. That bearish outlook proved timely as the S&P futures posted their second consecutive weekly decline, keeping the correction firmly intact.

The measured move from that Triangle continues to project downside toward the 7,300–7,325 area. A more conservative target lies between 7,350 and 7,375, which I still believe represents the highest-probability stopping zone for this correction.

Don’t mistake my short-term caution for a change in the bigger picture.

My long-term “Melt-Up” thesis remains fully intact. In fact, I believe this correction may be setting the stage for the next major advance—one that could eventually carry the S&P futures toward 8,500.

Earlier this week, the market briefly hinted at stabilization with a 3-Day Equilibrium Up pattern from Friday through Tuesday. That was enough to make me cautiously optimistic for a couple of sessions. However, buyers failed to follow through, and the market quickly transitioned into a weaker 3-Day Equilibrium Down, handing control back to the bears.

Current Setup – The Final Leg Lower?

The ES active 3-Day Equilibrium Down pattern reinforces my near-term bearish outlook and keeps the downside target below 7,375 firmly in play.

Thursday’s Range Expansion Down was an important technical event. It confirmed increasing selling pressure while creating fresh downside momentum.

The first meaningful resistance now sits at 7,496, just above Friday’s high. That level also marks the upper boundary of the newly created Air Zone from the past three trading sessions. Until buyers can reclaim that area, rallies should be viewed with caution.

Chart Focus

The ES daily chart continues to tell the story.

The large Triangle pattern that developed throughout June has now officially broken to the downside. Using the measured-move projection, the pattern targets approximately 7,300, represented by the red dashed line on the chart.

Also note the gray “Air” zone. This area served as support on three separate occasions before finally giving way. Once support failed, the character of the market changed.

Now a new pocket of Air has formed between Wednesday’s low and Friday’s high. Markets often move quickly through these one-sided trading zones, making them critical areas to monitor for both resistance and momentum.

ES Game Plan

I’m not interested in guessing bottoms.

Instead, I’ll continue trading what the market is giving us.

For next week, I’ll be watching closely for Clear-Outs below Thursday’s tail low while favoring Opening Range Breakdowns (ORBs) and Momentum (Momo) sells. If price reaches my downside target zone and begins producing the reversal patterns we’ve discussed over the past several weeks, I’ll be ready to shift gears.

Until then, the correction remains in control.

The bears may still have one more punch left—but I believe the next great buying opportunity of 2026 is getting closer.

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Gold (7/24/26) – The Breakout Isn’t Dead… It May Be Setting the Trap for the Next Rally

Current Regimes

• Zone: Buy Zone

• Long Term: Bearish

• Intermediate Term: Bearish

• Short Term: Bearish

• Day Trade: Bearish
  

Recap – A Violent Pullback... Exactly What Strong Bottoms Often Produce

Gold reminded traders this week that major bottoms are rarely clean or comfortable.

After staging an impressive $150 rally, both the Intermediate- and Short-Term trends briefly turned bullish, suggesting buyers were beginning to regain control. But just as optimism started to build, the market reversed sharply, surrendering most of those gains and turning both trends back down.

To many traders, that’s a failed breakout.

To me, that’s often exactly how important bottoms are built.

Markets rarely reverse in a straight line. Instead, they create uncertainty through false starts, violent pullbacks, and repeated tests that shake out weak hands before the real advance begins.

That bigger picture remains unchanged.

The Daily chart is still officially Trend Down, with the Long-Term Trend sitting more than $450 above current prices. Yet despite this larger bearish structure, one of the most important technical developments remains intact.

The Head-and-Shoulders Bottom I’ve been highlighting finally triggered this week. That pattern still projects an upside objective near $4,300.

In my Mid-Week Update, I cautioned subscribers not to chase the breakout. Instead, I expected a retracement toward $4,090 before buyers returned.

Gold certainly delivered the pullback—then exceeded expectations, reaching approximately $4,024 before stabilizing.

Current Setup – Healthy Retest... or Failed Breakout?

Gold - The question everyone is asking now is simple:

Has the breakout failed?

My answer is no.

Thursday and Friday may simply represent a classic 2-Bar Mean Reversion against the prior four strong up days—a normal pause after an explosive breakout.

More importantly, price continues to hold within the range of the Weekly Master Bar formed during the week of June 22.

That remains the chart I’m watching most closely.

A decisive breakout above the Master Bar high at $4,238 would add significant confidence that the larger bullish pattern is beginning to take control.

Until then, patience remains the highest-probability strategy.

Gold Chart Focus

This week’s chart highlights two critical technical features:

• The Weekly Master Bar, which continues to define Gold’s larger trading range.

• The Daily Head-and-Shoulders Bottom and what appears to be a textbook retest of the breakout point.

Retests often determine whether a breakout has staying power. If buyers successfully defend this area, the next leg higher could begin quickly.

Gold Game Plan

The bottom quarter of the Weekly Master Bar continues to represent my preferred accumulation zone.

That currently spans approximately $3,975 to $4,041.

Within that area, I’ll be looking for my highest-probability entry patterns—Opening Range Breakouts (ORBs) and Clear-Out reversals—rather than trying to anticipate the exact low.

Sometimes the best trades begin when confidence is at its lowest.

Gold may have one more test ahead—but if this Head-and-Shoulders breakout holds, the next meaningful move could surprise traders who gave up too early.

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Copper is up almost 5% from my weekend “buy breakouts” recommendation. With Monday and Tuesday both showing strong ORBs.

Crude Oil rallied about $9 from the mid-week recommendation of price being at an “action zone.”

Soybeans are up over 30 cents from the open of the week after my Rate-of-Change BUY recommendation.

Soybeans also broke out of my 2nd, larger Cup-and-Handle pattern highlighted in my weekend update.

Remember, Rate-of-Change signals only good for 1 - 5 days.

Introduction

The market continues to reward disciplined traders who follow price instead of opinions.

Over the past several weeks, we’ve consistently emphasized a simple message: identify the prevailing trend, wait for high-probability technical patterns, and execute when momentum confirms the setup. This week has been another strong example of why that approach works.

Copper has rallied nearly 5% since my weekend recommendation to buy breakouts after the textbook Two-Bar Mean Reversion setup. Crude Oil has advanced roughly $7 from my Rate-of-Change buy signal issued over the weekend, while Soybeans are up more than 30 cents after triggering both a Rate-of-Change BUY and breaking out of the larger Cup-and-Handle pattern highlighted in Sunday’s report. These are exactly the kinds of short-term opportunities Rate-of-Change signals are designed to capture—typically one to five trading days.

The broader investment landscape is becoming increasingly interesting as well. Through Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 has gained 10.7% year-to-date while traditional “safe havens” continue to disappoint. Gold remains down 6.5%, Silver has fallen 18.6%, and Bitcoin is still lower by almost 26% on the year. Capital continues to rotate aggressively toward risk assets, but that leadership may be beginning to broaden as Gold’s intermediate-term trend finally shows signs of turning higher.

Markets are also digesting a heavy stream of macroeconomic developments. Investors remain focused on expectations for Federal Reserve policy later this year, ongoing trade negotiations, a strong corporate earnings season, and persistent geopolitical tensions that continue to influence energy and industrial metals. Those crosscurrents are producing higher volatility across many commodity markets, creating exactly the environment where disciplined technical traders can find exceptional opportunities.

Looking ahead, my outlook remains constructive. The S&P 500 appears to be completing another important technical transition that favors higher prices. Gold has confirmed the Head-and-Shoulders breakout I’ve been discussing for weeks, Silver has finally regained its intermediate-term trend, Soybeans continue to validate their major breakout, and Copper remains one of the strongest momentum markets on my board.

As always, our objective isn’t to predict every tick—it’s to identify the highest-probability setups, manage risk, and let the market do the heavy lifting. The second half of this week should provide several outstanding opportunities if these developing trends continue to unfold.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 9.6 %

Gold : Down 4.1 %

Silver : Down 14.4 %

Bitcoin : Down -25.0 %

ES Futures (7/22/26) -

Zone :

Recap :

Over the weekend I said be alert for “exhaustion” rallies into 7,566. That was a bit high. Monday had an exhaustion rally up to 7,550. Which coincided with the then-current trend on the short term time frame as trend was dropping steeply.

Regardless, I recommended buying momentum to start this week. Monday was a scratch thanks to a second half sell off. Tuesday’s breakout (evening session) worked marvelously.

Current Setup :

The intermediate term trend has testing its trend from below three times this week. A fourth test should be the breakthrough to “trend up.”

The short term trend has turned up. Again, 3 test from below of the trend, before finally turning up on 4th test.

The daily bars completed a “3 Bar Equilibrium” on Tuesday. Tuesday’s close was above the mid point of Friday’s large down day.

Game Plan :

Buy momentum and breakouts. Also buy a new daily high above 7,650.

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Gold (7/22/26) -

Zone :

Recap :

Tuesday of this week finally had the breakout of the Head-and-Shoulders pattern on the daily chart. I highlighted this 2 updates ago. Wednesday showed nice follow thru up.

This pattern could carry prices $200 higher from the $4,032 breakout.

Tuesday and Wednesday showed nice ORB profits. Monday’s ORB was a scratch.

Current Setup :

The intermediate term chart has had its deepest upside penetration of trend in over 2 months. That’s significant.

The buy zone is the intersection of the last two Range Expansion up bars. This is between the high of Tuesday at $4,092.5 and the low of Wednesday at $4,081.

The two day range of 6/23 and 6/24 has contained almost all of the action since then. A break above / below that range will be significant.

Game Plan :

Buying momo for move to Head-and-Shoulders target of $4,232. Expecting a pull back first to at least $4,090 area.

Read more

Every week, thousands of traders make the same mistake.

They let the news tell them what the market is doing instead of letting price tell them what the market is about to do.

That’s why most traders spend their weekends reading headlines, listening to YouTube personalities predicting the next crash or the next moonshot, and then wondering why they’re always one step behind the market.

Professional traders work differently.

After nearly four decades on the trading floor and in the futures markets, I’ve learned that markets leave footprints long before the financial media notices them. Those footprints appear as recurring price patterns, trend shifts, support and resistance tests, momentum changes, and subtle changes in market structure. That’s where I focus my attention.

This week’s markets are a perfect example.

I’m still looking for the S&P 500 to eventually work its way toward my longer-term 8,500 objective. But that doesn’t mean the path will be straight. In fact, several short-term warning signs suggest traders should be prepared for increased volatility before the next major advance begins. Knowing the difference between a healthy pullback and the start of something much larger can mean the difference between buying opportunity and expensive mistake.

Gold continues to frustrate both bulls and bears. While many traders are trying to predict the next major move, I’m waiting for the market to confirm it. This week produced several high-probability swing setups, including one of my favorite 4-Hour Mean Reversion patterns. I’ll explain why I’m still patiently waiting for the bigger opportunity rather than chasing every rally.

Silver continues to prove why trend matters more than opinions. Social media is filled with confident predictions that silver “has to rally.” Price continues to tell a different story. My 3-Phase Trend Model has kept me on the right side of this decline for months while many traders have repeatedly bought into false breakouts. I’ll show subscribers exactly what has to change before silver becomes a high-conviction buy again.

Crude Oil has quietly become one of the strongest technical markets I’m tracking. Several powerful institutional accumulation signals have appeared over the past two weeks, including breakout patterns and momentum characteristics that often precede much larger advances. Is this just another bounce—or the beginning of a much bigger move?

I also cover developing opportunities in Copper, Soybeans, and Bitcoin, where several classic chart formations are approaching decision points that could produce attractive swing-trading opportunities over the coming days.

My goal isn’t to predict every market move.

My goal is to identify the highest-probability trades, define the risk before entering, and let probabilities—not emotions—drive every decision.

Inside this week’s premium report, subscribers receive my complete chart analysis, market regimes, proprietary trading rules, annotated charts, and the specific price levels I’m watching for entries, exits, and trend changes across every market I follow.

If you’re tired of chasing opinions and want to learn how an old floor trader reads markets using objective price action, this week’s report is one you won’t want to miss.

Become a paid subscriber today and receive the complete weekly report, including annotated charts, exact price levels, and the same swing-trading framework I use every week to navigate the futures markets.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Silver : DOWN 20%

Gold : DOWN 8.6%

Crude Oil : UP 6.5%

Friday, July 17, 2026

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ES (7/17/26) – The Melt-Up Is Alive... But First Comes the Shakeout

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bullish

• Intermediate Term: Bearish

• Short Term: Bearish

• Day Trade: Bearish

Recap

For the past several weeks, I’ve been pounding the table that the stock market’s path of least resistance remains higher. My longer-term target for the E-mini S&P is still 8,500, based on a 100% measured move of the powerful March-to-May advance.

But bull markets don’t travel in straight lines.

In fact, the strongest bull markets often produce the sharpest pullbacks. Those pullbacks are healthy. They shake out weak hands, scare late buyers, and create opportunities for traders who understand the difference between volatility and trend.

The financial media loves to label every sell-off as “volatility.” I call it something else.

Opportunity.

Friday looked ugly if you only watched the headlines. But the real damage occurred overnight. During the regular trading session, buyers quietly stepped back in, and ES actually finished above its opening price. That’s a subtle sign of underlying demand that many traders will overlook.

Even more important, price found support near the 50-day Moving Average, along with several technical support levels that have been on my radar for weeks.

The long-term bull story hasn’t changed.

The short-term landscape has.

Current Setup

Friday produced a Range Expansion Down Day, confirming a break below the large triangle pattern I highlighted last week. That breakdown projects an initial downside objective near 7,291.

At the same time, ES is sitting on top of one of my favorite concepts—what I call “Air.” Specifically, price is testing the upper boundary of the Air zone created on June 29.

This area has now acted as support three separate times.

One of my favorite trading rules is simple:

Support and resistance can usually survive three tests. Rarely a fourth.

That makes next week’s price action especially important. Buyers have defended this area repeatedly. Can they do it again, or is this support finally running out of fuel?

The answer will likely determine whether this is merely a healthy correction inside a larger bull market—or the beginning of a deeper retracement.

Chart

Daily chart showing the triangle breakdown, measured-move projection, and the June 29 “Air” support zone.

Game Plan

I’m looking to buy momentum if buyers regain control early next week and confirm the bounce from support.

At the same time, I’ll remain tactical. Should ES rally into the declining short-term trend—currently near 7,566—I’ll be watching closely for exhaustion and potential short-selling opportunities.

The longer-term destination may still be 8,500.

The question is whether the market needs one more shakeout before beginning the next leg higher.

Gold (7/17/26) – Patience Is the Trade

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bearish

• Intermediate Term: Bearish

• Short Term: Bullish

• Day Trade: Bullish

Recap

One of the hardest lessons in trading is learning that a rally is not the same thing as a new bull market.

That’s exactly where Gold sits today.

While the shorter-term charts have begun to improve, my long-term trend remains firmly bearish. In fact, Gold is still more than $500 away from generating a long-term buy signal. Until that changes, I have no interest in falling in love with every bounce.

Earlier this week, I was watching for a potential 4-Close Reversal above $4,228. The market never came close.

Instead, Monday’s sharp decline established the tone for the entire week.

Tuesday and Wednesday produced something much more interesting—a classic 2-Bar Mean Reversion that rallied back into the upper half of Monday’s range. At the same time, price pulled directly into the declining trend on the 4-hour chart.

For traders familiar with my work, this was textbook.

It was the exact type of 4-Hour Mean-Reversion Swing setup I discussed in last week’s Bitcoin analysis. The market rallied into resistance...and sellers immediately took control again.

Sometimes the best trades aren’t the obvious ones.

They’re the ones that patiently wait for the market to come to you.

Current Setup

Friday may have given us the first clue that buyers are beginning to fight back.

During the morning session, Gold formed what Wyckoff traders would recognize as a Spring, briefly pushing below the overnight lows near $3,975 before reversing sharply higher. False breakouts like these often mark the point where weak hands finally surrender to stronger buyers.

Zooming out to the weekly chart adds another layer to the story.

The current correction has now retraced only slightly beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the powerful rally that began from the 2022 lows. That’s hardly catastrophic. In fact, it’s well within the range of a normal correction inside a larger advance.

Meanwhile, the 30-minute chart is beginning to build what could become an L-Formation, suggesting buyers are quietly attempting to establish a short-term base.

Whether that base develops into something much larger remains to be seen.

Chart

30-minute chart highlighting Friday’s Spring and the developing L-Formation from the overnight lows.

Game Plan

I’m resisting the temptation to chase this bounce.

Instead, I’m waiting for what could become a much higher-probability opportunity—a confirmed Head-and-Shoulders bottom on the daily chart.

If that pattern completes, it could signal the beginning of a meaningful swing trade.

Until then, patience remains my greatest edge.

Sometimes the best trade isn’t the one you take.

It’s the one you’re disciplined enough to wait for.

Read more

Written at close of market Wednesday @ 4:00 pm, EST.

Recent Market Calls :

Cocoa went up over 25% from my Rate-of-Change “Buy” call for Monday, 7/6/26 to the peak 4 days later. Remember, Rate-of-Change signals only good for 1 - 5 days.

Link :

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 10.7 %

Gold : Down 6.5 %

Silver : Down 18.6 %

Bitcoin : Down -25.9 %

ES Futures (7/15/26) -

Zone : Buy Zone

Recap :

Last week I called for ES to melt-up to 8,500 in the next few months. I based this on recent, March to May rally distance.

I did expect an immediate breakout this week. Instead, Monday reacted back.

Current Setup :

Tuesday and Wednesday reversed Monday’s drop. Price has yet to break the triangle high around 7,6502.

The weekly Dynamite triangle is still in play.

Game Plan :

Buy Momentum and Breakouts. Also buy a new daily high above 7,650.

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Gold (7/15/26) -

Zone :

Recap :

We’ve been waiting for a breakout of the Head-and-Shoulders pattern on the daily chart. We are still waiting.

Monday was a Range Expansion sell-off.

Current Setup :

The long-term trend is still down. It turns up with a move above $4,600.

The weekly chart could form a 4 Close Reversal above $4,228 on this week’s close.

Game Plan :

Wait for the daily Head-and-Shoulder to trigger - if it does. Also, nibbles long could be taken on the 4 Close Reversal mentioned above on the weekly chart.

A move above Monday’s high of $4,112 would also be short-term bullish.

Read more

Wall Street continues to climb a wall of worry.

Rising inflation. Higher bond yields. Middle East uncertainty. Persistent tariff concerns. Yet despite every headline that should have knocked stocks lower, the market refuses to break. Instead, the Dow and Russell have already pushed to fresh all-time highs, while the S&P 500 is quietly building what may become the launchpad for an explosive move.

Two weeks ago I turned bullish and called for new highs after the successful test of the 50-day moving average. That call has held. Now, after another week of studying the charts, I believe the evidence has become even more compelling.

In this week’s report, I explain why I believe the S&P 500 could be entering the “melt-up” phase of this bull market—with a technical target approaching 8,500 by September. I’ll show you the chart pattern supporting that projection, the specific setups I’m buying next week, and the risk levels that would tell me I’m wrong.

But that’s only part of the story.

Gold and silver both flashed bullish breakouts... and both failed. Is this simply another shakeout before a major bottom, or the beginning of a larger decline? I identify the exact prices that must be reclaimed before I’m willing to get aggressively long again.

Crude Oil’s short-term top unfolded almost exactly as anticipated after last week’s temporary low call. Copper is testing a critical breakout level that could fuel another powerful advance. Soybeans are quietly building one of my favorite continuation patterns, while Treasury Bonds appear to be offering traders the opportunity to “ring the bell” twice with the same bearish setup.

As always, this isn’t a collection of opinions or economic forecasts. It’s a chart-by-chart trading plan built around repeatable patterns, objective trend analysis, and the same methodology I’ve refined over decades on and off the trading floor.

If you’re serious about staying one step ahead of the market instead of reacting to it, this week’s issue may be one of the most important reads of the summer.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Crude Oil : DOWN 26%

Silver : DOWN 22%

Bitcoin : DOWN 21%

ES (7/10/26) – Is the Melt-Up to 8,500 Beginning?

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bullish

• Intermediate Term: Bullish

• Short Term: Bullish

• Day Trade: Bullish

Recap

Two weeks ago I turned bullish on stocks after the ES successfully tested its 50-day moving average. My expectation was for the S&P 500 to challenge new all-time highs. While ES hasn’t quite gotten there yet, the market has continued to validate the bullish thesis. Both the Dow and the Russell 2000 have already broken out to fresh all-time highs, reinforcing my view that the S&P’s turn is likely next.

Here’s why I remain firmly in the bullish camp.

On the weekly chart, ES just posted its highest weekly close in history. Even more important, the past two months have formed what I call a Dynamite Triangle—a tight consolidation hugging the highs with very little selling pressure. Historically, this is one of the strongest continuation patterns I track.

The daily chart tells the same story. Tuesday and Wednesday produced an excellent 2-Bar Mean Reversion setup that led directly to Thursday’s advance. Thursday and Friday then confirmed the move with successful Opening Range Breakouts (ORBs)—a pattern my father pioneered decades ago and one I discuss in detail in The Ultimate Trading Guide (Wiley).

Current Setup

Friday finished with the second-highest close ever for the S&P 500. To me, that’s another sign the next leg higher may already be underway.

Projecting the March-to-May advance from the May correction low produces an upside objective near 8,500, making that my working target for September unless price action proves otherwise.

Chart

Daily chart showing the Dynamite Triangle. Also note the successful tests of the downside “Air” on June 29 (highlighted in the gray box), where buyers stepped in exactly where they needed to.

Game Plan

I’m looking to stay with the trend.

My primary focus next week will be Momentum (Momo) Buy setups. I’ll also be looking to nibble on Clear-Outs and 4-Close Reversals on the 30-minute chart whenever they align with the prevailing bullish trend.

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Gold (7/10/26) – Still Waiting for the Bottom

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bearish

• Intermediate Term: Bearish

• Short Term: Bearish

• Day Trade: Bullish

Recap

Last week I became encouraged when Gold broke above the June 24 Master Bar high at $4,132. However, I also stressed caution because the daily trend remained firmly bearish. That caution proved to be the right call.

The breakout quickly failed, trapping late buyers and confirming that sellers still control the larger trend.

Monday added another warning sign. The session closed weak with a pronounced upper tail, signaling that rallies continue to attract aggressive selling pressure.

Current Setup

Despite the bearish trend, I’m beginning to see the early ingredients for a possible counter-trend rally.

Tuesday and Wednesday produced a relatively sharp decline that lacked the orderly characteristics of a strong trend move. That opens the door for a potential 2-Bar Mean Reversion buy setup. The only hesitation is that Tuesday qualified as a slight Range Expansion day, making the signal somewhat less convincing.

For now, the evidence suggests patience rather than anticipation.

Chart

Daily chart showing the developing Head-and-Shoulders Bottom. The pattern remains incomplete, but if confirmed, it could mark an important low after several weeks of persistent selling pressure.

Game Plan

I’m still waiting for the market to prove itself.

Rather than trying to pick a bottom, I’ll wait for confirmation that the Head-and-Shoulders Bottom is completing before committing capital. If that pattern triggers, Gold could offer an excellent low-risk buying opportunity. Until then, patience remains the highest-probability trade.

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Written at close of market Wednesday @ 4:00 pm, EST.

Recent Market Calls :

Cocoa is up over 17% since my Rate-of-Change “Buy” call for Monday, 7/6/26.

Sugar is up .27 since my Rubicon recommendation for Monday, 7/6/26.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 9.6 %

Gold : Down 4.2 %

Silver : Down 13.1 %

Bitcoin : Down -27.2 %

ES Futures (7/8/26) -

Zone : Buy Zone

Recap :

Previously, I highlighted the “2 Bar Mean-Reversion” of Wednesday and Thursday last week. That worked for a nice rally on Monday only. Price reversed Tuesday.

ORBs worked Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday for 1 - 2 R profits each day.

Current Setup :

Wednesday (today) gapped down with follow through down. Only to bounce right back up to new intraday highs; and close above the open - SOS (Sign of Strength).

Buying 3 Day Lows in an Uptrend worked nicely here. The lowest low of the last 3 days was on Thursday at 7,479.75 (MES). Today’s low was 7,469.25. Just 10.50 points lower.

On the 24 hour chart, price formed a double bottom. Wednesday was a breakout of that on the upside; and a dynamite triangle up on the 30 minute chart. This suggest a 50+ point rally from here.

Game Plan :

Buy Momentum and Breakouts. Also buy a new daily high above Wednesday high of 7,563.

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Gold (7/8/26) -

Zone :

Recap :

The 4 Hour, intermediate term chart was unable to hold a “trend up” position from last week.

I suggested buying a controlled pullback to $4,132. Tuesday, early morning hit a low of $4,128 and rallied over $50. I thought that might be “it” for the bottom. It was not.

The MACD did make new highs above the previous pivot price highs. This suggest that further upside is in the works.

The 30 minute chart had a beautiful MACD divergent double bottom ending in a 3 Bar Equilibrium with the 12 noon (EST) bar.

Current Setup :

Tuesday and Wednesday formed a possible 2 Bar Mean-Reversion to the recent $260 price rally.

The daily chart MAY be finishing a “Head-and-Shoulder” bottom pattern. The projected neckline for Thursday is $4,192.

Game Plan :

Wait for the daily Head-and-Shoulder to trigger - if it does.

Read more

Market Recap

Last weekend I outlined a bullish game plan for the S&P 500, highlighting the 50-day moving average as a critical support level and recommending momentum buys on Opening Range Breakouts and Clear-Outs. The market responded almost exactly as anticipated, with ES rallying more than 2%, our defined risk moving 1R in our favor, and protective stops now advancing to breakeven.

But the bigger story may be what lies ahead.

For the first time in weeks, multiple markets are beginning to align. The S&P 500 sits within striking distance of fresh all-time highs. Gold has reclaimed its intermediate-term trend. Silver is emerging from a significant reversal pattern. Soybeans are threatening a Cup-and-Handle breakout, while Bitcoin may have completed a classic “Spring” reversal after trapping late sellers. At the same time, Crude Oil and Bonds remain technically weak, creating opportunities on both sides of the market.

In this week’s report, I break down the highest-probability setups I’m watching, the exact price levels that matter most, and the patterns that will determine whether this summer becomes the next leg of the bull market—or the beginning of a more meaningful rotation. As always, the focus isn’t on predicting the future. It’s on preparing for it with a disciplined, repeatable trading plan.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

ES (7/3/26) – Bulls Still Have the Edge

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bullish

• Intermediate Term: Bullish

• Short Term: Bullish

• Day Trade: Bullish

Recap for ES futures

Last week I entered with a bullish bias. The market rewarded that outlook.

ES gained more than 2%, validating the importance of the 50-day moving average that I highlighted as a key support level. That same moving average launched a rally of more than 5% in mid-June, and this week’s price action suggests buyers are once again defending that level with conviction.

I also pointed out the asymmetric opportunity developing around Friday’s (6/26) low. The trade risked roughly 120 points in pursuit of a move back to all-time highs—a favorable reward relative to the risk. With ES now advancing approximately 1R in our favor, risk management becomes simple: stops should now be moved to break-even, allowing the market to do the heavy lifting.

My preferred entries were Opening Range Breakouts (ORB) and Clear-Outs. While the ORBs produced respectable results, the Clear-Out setups proved to be the standout performers, offering multiple high-quality entries before finally failing late Thursday afternoon. As of Friday’s close, that strategy remains positioned on the long side.

Current ES Setup

The market spent the first half of the week doing exactly what strong markets should do—expanding higher with momentum. Monday and Tuesday produced a powerful advance, while Tuesday’s narrowing range hinted that buyers were becoming more selective rather than exhausted.

Wednesday and Thursday then completed what appears to be a textbook 2-Bar Mean Reversion, creating another opportunity for buyers ahead of the abbreviated Friday session. Assuming that pattern remains intact, the focus now shifts to Sunday night’s open.

The bigger picture remains difficult to ignore.

The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 both recorded fresh all-time highs this week. ES now sits less than 100 points away from doing the same. Until price proves otherwise, I continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher.

ES Chart

30-minute ES chart highlighting recent Clear-Out entries and the trend structure supporting the current bullish bias.

ES Game Plan

My strategy remains unchanged.

I’ll continue looking to buy momentum, particularly on a move above Friday’s high. I’ll also be watching closely for Clear-Outs and 4 Close Reversals on the 30-minute chart. These continue to provide some of the highest-probability, lowest-risk entries available in the current market environment.

When the longer-term trend is aligned, my job isn’t to predict tops—it’s to stay with the trend until the market gives me a compelling reason to do otherwise.

Gold – Buyers Finally Regain Control

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bearish

• Intermediate Term: Bullish

• Short Term: Bullish

• Day Trade: Bullish

Recap for Gold

Patience paid off this week.

Last weekend I made it clear that I wasn’t interested in buying Gold until the intermediate-term trend turned positive. That confirmation finally arrived as the 4-hour chart broke above its 100-bar moving average—and, just as importantly, held above it.

That may sound like a subtle distinction, but it’s an important one. Markets frequently poke above moving averages only to fail a bar or two later. This time was different. Buyers maintained control, producing the first consecutive closes above the 4-hour trend since the failed rally on May 11. That’s a meaningful change in character and the first evidence that momentum may be shifting back in favor of the bulls.

Current Setup for Gold

Thursday produced another significant technical development by breaking above the June 24 “Master Bar.”

That bar represented the climactic selling pressure that marked the recent decline. Since then, Gold had been trapped inside the high and low of that Master Bar, with every rally and decline contained within its range. Thursday finally broke that ceiling, and Friday confirmed the breakout by posting another higher high.

Breakouts often retest the level they have just conquered before continuing higher. In this case, the top of the Master Bar near $4,132 becomes the first area I’ll be watching for buyers to step back in.

One additional feature I’m monitoring is the “Air” left on the 30-minute chart. Markets have a tendency to revisit these zones before deciding on their next sustained move, making them valuable areas to watch for low-risk entries.

Chart

30-minute Gold chart highlighting the Air zone from the daily chart.

Game Plan for Gold Futures

For the first time in several weeks, my bias has shifted to the long side.

I’ll look to buy either a continuation breakout or a controlled pullback into the $4,132 area, provided buyers continue defending that level. Because the daily trend remains bearish, I’ll continue using tighter risk parameters and allow the market to prove that this reversal has staying power before becoming more aggressive.

The trend is improving—but as always, confirmation comes before conviction.

Read more

Written at close of market Wednesday @ 4:00 pm, EST.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 9.4%

Gold : Down 6.0%

Silver : Down 14.0%

Bitcoin : Down -32.0%

ES Futures (7/1/26) - The Move Up has Started

Zone : -

Recap :

My Weekend update suggested to buy last week’s dip. I highlighted the repeated “tail lows” and the bounce off of the 50 day moving average. I noted the prior bounce off of the 50 day MVA produced a 5% rally in mid June.

The intermediate trend turned positive Monday morning. That was an early indication to buy. Further, Monday penetrated the high of Friday for a second trend up confirmation.

I noted a great asymmetric opportunity around Friday’s range. If you took that, it is time to move stop to breakeven around that day’s high. Price has reached 1 range (Friday’s range) above Friday’s high.

Current Setup :

The Dow and Russell both reached new ATH’s this week. I expect S&Ps and Nasdaq to follow suit soon.

Wednesday’s action suggest a sell off may bring prices down. Wednesday made new move highs above Tuesday’s high; only to reverse and close below the open and the prior day’s low.

Price has pulled back to short term trend at 7525.

Game Plan :

Look for Clear-Outs of Wednesday’s low for buy opportunities.

Gold (7/1/26) - Gold is Coiled for a Breakout.

Zone : Sell Zone

Recap :

Previously, I highlighted that Thursday and Friday may be a “2 Bar Mean Reversion” up in a down trend. This was based on those day’s failure to penetrate the high of the last down, Range-Expansion bar on Wednesday.

Price dropped to new move lows on Tuesday; only to rally back up above $4,000.

Current Setup :

Wednesday tried to rally but sold off all afternoon.

Price has formed a triangle pattern on the daily chart.

The short term trend has turned up. Yet, the long and intermediate terms are still down.

Game Plan :

The 4 Hour chart needs a close above $4,172 for an intermediate term up trend.

I will take breakouts up this week for potential upside triangle breakout.

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Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Crude Oil : DOWN 26%

Silver : DOWN 22%

Bitcoin : DOWN 21%

Friday, June 26, 2026

Intro

The stock market continues to grind near all-time highs—but beneath the surface, the story is becoming much more interesting.

While the Dow and Russell are breaking records, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are showing signs of fatigue as money rotates away from high-flying technology stocks. Is this simply another buy-the-dip opportunity... or the first warning shot before a larger correction?

This week I break down the exact price-action patterns I’m watching across the markets, including:

• Why Friday’s selloff may be creating the next high-probability long setup in the S&P 500.

• The crude oil pattern that played out almost exactly as anticipated—and where the next short may develop.

• Why Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin remain on my watch list but not yet in my buy list.

• The key support, resistance, and trend levels I’ll be trading next week.

I don’t make predictions—I follow repeatable patterns that have guided my trading for decades. Every weekend I identify the highest-probability opportunities before the market opens, complete with charts, game plans, and precise price levels.

If you’re serious about trading futures with discipline instead of emotion, you’ll find ideas here that can immediately improve your preparation for the week ahead.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

ES (6/26/26) -

Current Regimes

• Long Term: Bullish

• Intermediate Term: Bearish

• Short Term: Bearish

• Day Trade: Bullish

Recap

I began the week looking to buy momentum. Fortunately, discipline kept me out of trouble. With the intermediate-term trend still pointing lower, none of my Opening Range Breakouts (ORB) or VRBO setups met the criteria for a trade. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t take.

In hindsight, this was a classic Buy The Dip (BTD) market. Buyers repeatedly stepped in on weakness, producing pronounced tail lows on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday—each exceeding 30% of the day’s range. Those long lower tails tell an important story: every meaningful selloff attracted aggressive buying.

The broader market continues to display impressive underlying strength. Both the Dow and Russell 2000 pushed to new all-time highs, confirming that institutional money is still flowing into equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have lagged somewhat, weighed down by continued weakness in several large-cap technology names. I believe much of that pressure stems from investors reassessing lofty AI-related valuations, a headwind that should eventually fade.

Friday’s late-session selloff deserves respect, however. The weakness was concentrated in technology and produced the ugliest close of the week. While it doesn’t change my longer-term outlook, it reminds us that this remains a market where risk management is every bit as important as finding the right entry.

Current Setup

The daily chart may have found support at the 50-day moving average—the same level that launched a rally of more than 5% following the June 11 test. If that support holds again, the reward continues to outweigh the risk.

The asymmetric opportunity remains on the long side. A logical protective stop sits beneath Friday’s significant tail low, while a move back to new all-time highs offers approximately a 1:1.8 risk-to-reward opportunity. As always, once the trade reaches +1R, I’ll move the stop to break-even and let the market decide the rest.

Chart

Daily chart highlighting the 50-day moving average support, the defined risk level beneath Friday’s tail low, and the projected move back toward all-time highs.

Game Plan

Next week I’ll continue looking to buy momentum, particularly on a move above Friday’s high. I’ll also be watching closely for Clear-Outs and 4 Close Reversals on the 30-minute chart, which have consistently produced some of the week’s best low-risk entries. Recent examples occurred Sunday evening (8:00 PM), Tuesday night (7:30 PM), and Friday morning (9:30 AM).

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Gold (6/26/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bearish

Intermediate Term: Bearish

Short Term: Bullish

Day Trade: Bearish.

Recap - Gold made new move lows this week. Wednesday finished a “Pattern 9” sell. I covered more of my Gold and Silver Miners this week.

Current Setup - Wednesday was a Range-Expansion down bar. Thursday and Friday showed weak rallies unable to break above Wednesday’s high. Wednesday - Friday might be construed as a combination “3 Bar Equilibrium” / “Spring” up as Friday closed above the midpoint of Wednesday.

Or, is this just a “2 Bar Mean Reversion” up into the Sell Zone to be sold short?

MACD on the 4 hour as turned up for the first time in over 2 weeks.

Game Plan - Stand aside until at least the 4 hour turns positive - above $4,230.

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