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Good morning,

I hope all is well.

Here is a brief summary of today’s Markets Briefing: Stocks and Bonds Fall as US-Iran Strikes Lift Oil and the RBNZ Hikes Again

· The RBNZ raised its cash rate for a second straight meeting to 2.75% and said a further increase is likely but the timing is uncertain. The New Zealand dollar fell and October hike odds roughly halved.

· Asian stocks slumped and global bond yields held near their highest since 2008 as renewed US-Iran strikes lifted oil to a five-week high. Japanese and Korean shares led the falls.

· Australia’s economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, pushing three-year yields to their highest since March and firming bets on another RBA hike.

· Governor Ueda said the BoJ will debate a September hike with a focus on upside price risks, and board member Takata called for nimble rate rises. Two-year JGB yields reached their highest since 1995.

· The US struck Iranian government tankers under a new tanker-for-tanker policy and Iran retaliated against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. Two tankers carrying Saudi oil were hit in the Omani corridor.

· ECB Governing Council member Makhlouf told the FT the bank must be ready to raise rates further if inflation moves the wrong way, after euro-area inflation rose to its highest since 2024.

Today’s Macro Roadmap: The Bank of Canada decides at 15:45 CET and is expected to hold, with the press conference at 16:30 CET. Before that, ADP private payrolls at 14:15 CET open the week’s US labour data. Also: ECB’s Wunsch at 09:10 CET, US factory orders at 16:00 CET, the EIA inventory report at 16:30 CET and the Fed’s Beige Book at 20:00 CET.

Full Article

Stocks, bonds and gold fell as renewed fighting between the US and Iran drove oil higher and added to expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will raise interest rates this month (BBG). Bloomberg reports that global bond yields are at their highest since 2008 and that traders now put the odds of a September hike above 50% for four major central banks (BBG). Homin Lee, a senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, said the weak sentiment is driven by the combination of renewed Hormuz worries and rising global bond yields, and that higher-beta markets are showing wilder swings within a volatile boom phase (BBG). Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management, said higher yields at these levels are a clear headwind to Asian equities, especially longer-duration tech stocks (BBG).

In stocks, the Nikkei fell 2.6% to 64,440, the CSI 300 lost 1.3%, the ASX dropped 0.8% and MSCI’s emerging-market index fell 0.6%, while Korean shares posted the region’s steepest decline (Reuters). MSCI’s Asia Pacific gauge fell to a one-week low with all eleven industry groups retreating, dragging the global equity index to its lowest in almost a month (BBG). The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower on Tuesday as the surge in government bond yields weighed on equities (Reuters). S&P 500 futures were little changed and Nasdaq futures were down 0.2%, while European futures pointed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.4%, the DAX 0.5% and the FTSE 0.4%.

Regarding the RBNZ, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% from 2.50%, its second consecutive increase, as expected (BBG). Governor Anna Breman said a further increase is likely but that the timing is highly uncertain because the committee wants to see the effect of the two hikes already delivered (BBG). The new projections show third-quarter inflation above the May forecast and a return to the 2% midpoint in early 2028 rather than late 2027 (BBG). The statement said gradually removing stimulus remains appropriate and that more persistence in energy prices could lead to stickier inflation over the medium term (WSJ). Swaps cut the probability of an October hike to around 36% from 65% before the meeting, while a move by December stays close to fully priced (BBG).

Regarding the RBA, Australian GDP rose 0.4% q/q in the second quarter against a 0.3% consensus, and 2.1% y/y against 1.8% expected, from 2.5% in the first quarter (BBG). Household consumption rose and added to growth, and the three-year yield rose as much as eleven basis points to its highest since March as investors lifted expectations that the hiking cycle will extend into next year (BBG). TD Securities now sees the RBA raising its rate to 4.6% at the September meeting. Bloomberg Economics argued that headline growth overstated underlying strength because of lumpy data-centre investment, a rebound in mining exports and the fuel-price response (BBG).

In Japan, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BoJ will debate raising rates, including in September, with a focus on whether upside price risks are heightening, in his last public remarks before the pre-meeting blackout (Reuters). He said the bank hopes to keep raising rates as conditions remain accommodative but must assess the cumulative impact of five hikes, and confirmed meeting Treasury Secretary Bessent after a US statement called for decisive monetary steps against the weak yen (Reuters). Board member Hajime Takata said the bank should raise rates nimbly rather than at a fixed semiannual pace, calling 2026 a regime change, and that it must show its determination to prevent upward deviations in prices (Reuters). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan will keep a close watch on the yen after the Treasury statement noted the currency’s undervaluation and its role in driving inflation (WSJ).

In Europe, ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf told the Financial Times he is uneasy about euro-area inflation staying above 3% while growth has proved stronger than expected, and that the ECB must be prepared to raise rates further if inflation moves in the wrong direction, while adding that next week’s decision will not surprise anybody (Breakingthenews). Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told Le Monde that markets see a probability above 95% of a September hike, that he is cautious about giving any indication beyond September, and that a meeting-by-meeting approach will serve the Council well (BBG). Euro-area headline inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in August from 2.9% in July, the highest since September 2024, with energy inflation accelerating sharply while core dipped to 2.4% from 2.5% (CNBC).

Currently, STIR traders price 17 basis points of tightening for the Fed’s September meeting, a 68% probability of a rate rise, and 39 basis points cumulatively by December. Bloomberg reports that Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech fuelled the repricing and that Bessent’s expanded buybacks have not eased investor unease about long-dated Treasuries (BBG). For the ECB, markets price 25 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, a fully priced rate rise, and 48 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, markets price 26 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, more than fully priced, and 48 basis points cumulatively by December. For the RBA, markets price 18 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, a 73% probability of a rate rise, and 35 basis points cumulatively by December.

In currencies, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.8% against the US dollar to 0.5846 after the RBNZ’s cautious guidance (BBG).

The yen firmed 0.4% against the dollar to 159.57 after the Treasury statement and the hawkish BoJ remarks, still close to the 40-year low that the last round of joint intervention failed to reverse (WSJ). The won firmed 0.5% against the dollar to 1366.65. The dollar index was little changed at 99.728, the euro eased 0.1% to 1.1581, and the Australian dollar was unchanged at 0.7145 after the GDP data. The yuan was little changed at 6.7226 per dollar and remains near its strongest since early 2023, as capital controls and low foreign bond holdings cushion it from the record-wide gap between US and Chinese yields (BBG).

In bonds, the US ten-year yield was at 4.80%, up 0.4 basis points, after touching its highest in almost three years overnight (Reuters). The thirty-year yield was at 5.28%, up 0.8 basis points, less than ten basis points from its 19-year peak (BBG). Bloomberg reports that investors have paid millions in premium for Treasury options that pay out if yields keep rising, including a position targeting a 30-year yield of 5.7% by the end of November, and that neutral positioning in a client survey is at its lowest since September 2025 (BBG). The Japanese ten-year yield was at 3.03%, up 2.0 basis points, and the two-year at 1.86%, up 6.6 basis points, the highest since 1995 (Reuters). The Australian ten-year yield was at 5.22%, up 4.1 basis points, at a level last seen in July 2011 (BBG). Bund futures fell 0.3% with German ten-year yields at their highest since 2011 and gilt yields at their highest since 2008 (Reuters). Reuters reports that European and UK yields are being driven by higher inflation expectations, while the US long end is driven more by real yields (Reuters).

In commodities, Brent rose 1.0% to 95.59 and WTI rose 0.6% to 90.78 after the US carried out a second day of strikes on Iran and struck two Iranian government vessels under a new tanker-for-tanker policy, while Iran retaliated against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait (BBG). Two tankers carrying Saudi oil were hit within minutes of each other while crossing the Omani corridor the US set up to break Iran’s chokehold, which maritime-security firms said undermines any assumption that the corridor is a reliably protected passage (WSJ). Bessent said a record 17 million barrels of crude exited Hormuz on Monday and that total flows, including pipelines, exceed pre-war levels, while Energy Secretary Wright said exports are averaging about 8 million barrels a day with a further 4 to 5 million bypassing the strait by pipeline (BBG). The API reported a 2.6 million barrel draw in US crude inventories, which would be the first decline in five weeks if confirmed by the EIA today (Bloomberg). European gas futures rose to the highest since January 2023, with storage only about 65% full, the lowest seasonal level in records back to 2009, and one month left to build inventories before winter (BBG). Gold fell 0.2% to 4,322 dollars an ounce, a fourth daily decline (BBG), and copper fell 0.9%. Bitcoin rose 0.3% to 77,659.

In geopolitics, Trump said the strikes were retaliation for Iran’s attempt to mine the strait, Central Command said it hit air-defence sites, radar, mine-laying capabilities and communications, and Jordan reported engaging 13 ballistic missiles that entered its airspace (WSJ). Trump said he could not care less whether Iran signs a deal and that he is not trying to force Tehran to the bargaining table (BBG). The IAEA said it still cannot verify the location or status of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium and urged Tehran to allow inspectors back with the utmost urgency (Bloomberg). Bessent said the US and China agree that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, and the G20 chair’s statement expressed concern at continued energy-trade disruptions and stressed freedom of navigation (LS). IMF Managing Director Georgieva said the 2026 global growth outlook has firmed at around 3% (LS).

In corporate news, Dell jumped 8% in extended trading after raising its annual sales forecast, and Nvidia is said to be in advanced talks to acquire the AI startup Hugging Face in a 14 billion dollar deal (BBG).

Data and the day ahead: South Korea’s inflation accelerated in August, which the Bank of Korea attributed to a base effect, and it expects September to be lower while underlying pressure persists in core items (Breakingthenews). Japan’s monetary base contracted 15.7% y/y in August from 13.8%. Still to come: ECB Governing Council member Wunsch speaks at 09:10 CET. ADP private payrolls at 14:15 CET, where economists look for a modest pickup from July, is the first of the week’s US labour prints ahead of Friday’s payrolls. The Bank of Canada decides at 15:45 CET and is expected to hold, with analysts looking for a neutral statement that puts more emphasis on inflation risks and the external backdrop, followed by the press conference at 16:30 CET (LS). US factory orders and final durable goods for July are at 16:00 CET, the EIA crude inventory report at 16:30 CET will test the API draw, and the Fed’s Beige Book is at 20:00 CET. Fed Governor Waller speaks on Thursday and US payrolls follow on Friday.

Good luck today!

Time Stamp: 2 September 2026, 08:09 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Good morning,

I hope all is well.

Here is a brief summary of today’s Markets Briefing: Japan’s 10-Year Yield Hits 3% as the Global Bond Selloff Deepens

· Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached its highest since 1996, with Australian yields at levels last seen in 2011 and the global sovereign gauge at its highest since mid-2008.

· Bessent used the G20 to press Tokyo publicly, telling Katayama and Ueda that Japan’s next step should be a rate rise. Katayama replied that policy is entrusted to the Bank of Japan.

· JPMorgan’s trading desk dropped its bullish view on US stocks, citing rate uncertainty, September seasonality and a momentum unwind in AI shares.

· Oil came off its highs after Iran’s president said Tehran would reciprocate if Washington returns to the memorandum of understanding, the first conciliatory signal since the weekend strikes.

· China’s private factory gauge beat again, a ninth straight month of expansion and the longest run in five years, with export orders growing fastest in six months.

· Euro-area flash inflation at 11:00 CET is the final price reading before next week’s ECB decision, after Germany undershot yesterday.

· Today’s Macro Roadmap: Euro-area flash inflation lands at 11:00 CET, the last price reading before the ECB decides next week. Also: the US ISM survey and JOLTS, plus ECB speakers and Fed Governor Barr. Tomorrow: RBNZ and Bank of Canada.

Full Article

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3.00% on our screens, a level last seen in 1996, as a global bond selloff drove yields to their highest in almost two decades. The two-year JGB added 5.4 basis points to 1.78%. Bloomberg’s gauge of global sovereign debt rose for a fourth straight session to its highest since mid-2008, and Australian 10-year yields jumped 8.1 basis points to 5.17%, a level last seen in 2011 (BBG).

In stocks, the Hang Seng fell 0.90% to 25,224 while the Nikkei fell 0.14% to 66,360, the CSI 300 slipped 0.07%, and emerging-market equities outperformed, with the MSCI gauge up 0.95% (BBG). S&P 500 futures were near flat, off 0.02%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.03%. JPMorgan’s trading desk moved to what its head of US market intelligence Andrew Tyler called a “tactically cautious / neutral view”, citing rate uncertainty, September seasonality and a momentum unwind in artificial-intelligence shares, while writing that “equity-market fundamentals remain strong, but near-term variables are likely to cause markets to chop sideways” (BBG).

Regarding central banks, NHK reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda in separate meetings that Japan’s next step should be to raise interest rates (BBG). Bessent told CNBC he has “information that the market doesn’t have” and believes the Japanese government and central bank “will do the things that will lead to a stronger yen”, adding on a rate rise that “I think the market’s pricing that in now” (Nikkei). Katayama denied the exchange, saying decisions on monetary policy “are entrusted to the Bank of Japan under the BOJ Act”, and framed the meeting around orderly currency moves and July’s joint intervention instead (BBG). In the euro area, Governing Council member Olli Rehn told the Financial Times that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep inflation elevated, called market pricing for a quarter-point increase “understandable”, and said subsequent decisions should be made meeting by meeting (Breakingthenews). Robert Kaplan, a Goldman Sachs vice chair and former Dallas Fed president, told Bloomberg Television he would go into the September meeting “leaning into the thought of raising interest rates” (LS). Market pricing: STIR traders put a September Federal Reserve rise at 67%, the European Central Bank’s 10 September move fully priced, a Bank of Japan increase on 18 September at 92%, tomorrow’s RBNZ decision at 98%, and a Reserve Bank of Australia move on 29 September at 51%, while the Bank of Canada tomorrow and the Bank of England this month are both priced near 11%.

In currencies, the yen was little changed at 159.84 per dollar, having briefly firmed on the NHK report before giving it back after Katayama’s denial (BBG). The dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.49 (BBG). The euro was steady at 1.1609 before the region’s inflation reading, and the offshore yuan was little changed. The kiwi eased 0.07% to 0.5913 before tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, where every economist surveyed expects a second consecutive increase (BBG). The rupee firmed 0.35%.

In bonds, the US 10-year yield rose 2.4 basis points to 4.77%, its highest since January 2025, with the two-year up 1.3 basis points to 4.35% and the 30-year up 2.3 basis points to 5.27%, all easing back as the Iranian headline crossed (BBG) (BBG). The long end has now settled above 5% on 55 days since January, the most in any year since 2006, and faces an expected $215 billion of corporate issuance this month set against the Treasury’s buyback programme (BBG). “If you want to get the long end down, you tighten rates,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities (BBG). Tuesday’s 10-year JGB auction drew demand in line with its twelve-month average and better than the previous sale, but SMBC Nikko’s Miki Den said it showed “investors are looking for a yield above 3% on 10-year JGBs”, and a 30-year sale on Thursday is the harder test (BBG). Behind that auction sits the supply: ministries have requested a record 143 trillion yen for fiscal 2027 after the government dropped spending caps in strategic fields, leaving the bond market and Washington as the remaining constraints (Reuters) (Nikkei). Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi urged that the number be compared with last year’s combined initial and supplementary budgets rather than the initial one alone, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said new issuance will stay below 40 trillion yen (BBG).

In commodities, crude came off its highs, but is grinding higher again, after Iranian state television cited President Masoud Pezeshkian saying that if the United States returns to the memorandum of understanding, Iran will reciprocate, the first conciliatory signal from Tehran since the weekend strikes (LS). WTI held a 1.20% gain at $86.79 and Brent 0.88% at $91.29, both below their session peaks. The advance had followed a report from maritime authorities of a tanker struck by three projectiles while sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz, 17 nautical miles east of Khasab in Oman, with no casualties (Reuters via Arab News). President Trump dismissed the conflict as “a relatively little war for us” while vowing to respond to Iran’s strikes on American bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, and US Central Command said no ships had hit mines in the strait, contradicting Iranian claims (BBG). Gold turned higher, up 0.11% to $4,442, as the pullback in yields eased the pressure on the non-yielding metal (BBG). Copper added 0.69% and industrial metals rose 0.85% after the Chinese PMI survey (BBG). Venezuelan crude exports jumped 28% in August as Indian refiners more than doubled their purchases while cutting Russian volumes, the clearest sign yet that the response to Hormuz is re-routing rather than new supply (BBG). Bitcoin firmed 0.29% to 79,083 and ether rose 0.28% to 2,479 (BBG). Soybeans reached their highest in almost three years after the Environmental Protection Agency’s biofuel exemption decision proved more supportive of demand than feared (BBG).

In corporate news, Anthropic signed a $35 billion cloud agreement with Nvidia-backed Lambda, with Nvidia itself holding the lease on the Texas data centre, following a $45 billion deal with Nscale earlier this month (WSJ). The Trump administration added nine drugmakers including Teva, Astellas and CSL to its Medicaid most-favoured-nation pricing programme, with the companies committing $19.6 billion of US manufacturing investment in exchange for relief from tariffs of as much as 100% on certain imported patented medicines (BBG).

In geopolitics, Bessent told Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at the G20 that no sanctions relief is possible while the war in Ukraine continues, in Siluanov’s first appearance since 2022; European officials declined to join the group photograph, which was taken without him (CNBC). Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect on 8 September, and Oxford Economics estimates the combined measures cut output about 0.3% against its 2027 baseline, two days before a Bank of Canada decision at which a hold is expected (BBG).

Data and the day ahead: In Australia, Sydney home values are down about 7% from their February peak with prices falling in 93% of capital-city suburbs, and mortgage applications have dropped as much as 20% since the May budget restricted negative gearing (BBG). British shop prices rose 1.5% in August against 0.9% expected, from 0.9%, the fastest in more than two years with food up 2.8% (BBG). Japan’s second-quarter capital spending rose 1.6% on the year against expectations for a 0.3% fall, from zero, and current profits jumped 24.6% against 15.2% expected, pointing to an upward revision to second-quarter GDP on 8 September (BBG). China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 against 51.0 expected, from 50.9, a ninth month of expansion and the longest run in five years (BBG). Japan’s manufacturing PMI was 54.9 from 55.1, and consumer confidence was 35.5 against 35.3 expected, from 34.9. Australia’s current-account deficit narrowed to A$27.2bn against A$30.0bn expected, and net exports contributed 0.1 point to second-quarter growth as expected, ahead of tomorrow’s GDP. Still to come today: euro-area flash inflation at 11:00 CET, where the survey looks for the headline rate to accelerate on energy costs with core steady, the final price reading before the 9-10 September decision, alongside the unemployment rate. ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaks in Alpbach at 10:30 CET, Nagel in Asheville at 14:30 CET and Vujcic in Berlin at 17:30 CET, with Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr at 15:05 CET. Then the US ISM manufacturing survey at 16:00 CET, seen easing slightly while holding in expansion, with JOLTS job openings and construction spending alongside it (LS). Later this week: the RBNZ and Bank of Canada decide tomorrow, Australian second-quarter GDP lands overnight, a 30-year JGB auction on Thursday, and the August US payrolls report closes the week on Friday (BBG) (BBG).

Time Stamp: 1 September 2026, 07:47 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Good morning,

I hope all is well.

Here is a brief summary of today’s Markets Briefing: Oil Jumps as US-Iran Fire Resumes and Bessent Presses BOJ

· The US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in more than a month. Oil jumped as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed a mined supertanker caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump threatened Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal.

· Bond investors are pushing back on the September hike bets Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech ignited.

· The yen firmed from a one-month low with the intervention watch back on and a September Bank of Japan hike close to fully priced. Bessent called the moves well contained and backed Governor Ueda.

· Japan’s data beat across the board: factory output rose against expectations for a fall, and retail sales jumped after seven months of weak household spending.

· China’s factory PMI beat forecasts but stayed in contraction for a second month, and the construction gauge fell to its weakest since the start of the pandemic.

· German preliminary inflation this afternoon is the day’s main event, opening a week that brings the RBNZ, the Bank of Canada and Friday’s US payrolls.

· Today’s Macro Roadmap: German preliminary inflation lands at 14:00 CET. Also: regional prints from 10:00 CET, SNB sight deposits and the G20. London is closed.

Full Article:

Brent crude rose 3.26% to $90.97, and WTI gained 3.11% to $85.99 after the United States and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in more than a month (BBG).

US Central Command said its forces struck two rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday as Revolutionary Guard units prepared to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated with a missile and drone attack on the King Hussein and Al Azraq air bases in Jordan (CNBC). President Donald Trump threatened Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, saying it is going to be “blown to smithereens” (CNBC). Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker on the southern Hormuz route was hit by two naval mines and halted after catching fire, and said it shot down a US MQ-9 drone over the strait (LS). Traders monitoring cargoes say crude is still transiting at a reduced, tolled pace (BBG). “The direct attack on Iranian launch sites does little to advance talks, and neither will Iran firing back at Jordan,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, adding that “there seems little appetite, at this stage, to push crude materially higher” (BBG).

In stocks, the Nikkei fell 0.50% to 66,120, and the Hang Seng lost 0.47% as the escalation met a market already repricing US rates after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech (Yahoo). Korean shares underperformed, dragged by the chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (BBG). The CSI 300 eased 0.25% even after a stronger manufacturing survey (Yahoo). S&P 500 futures slipped 0.26% to 7,702, Nasdaq futures fell 0.17%, and European futures pointed lower (Yahoo).

Regarding central banks, bond investors are pushing back on the rate-hike bets Warsh’s speech ignited. Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN AMRO Investment Solutions, said “the reaction function is still unclear” and warned credibility concerns may re-emerge if the Fed holds again (BBG). Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, said “talk is talk. Action speaks louder” (BBG). TD Securities’ base case remains a hold, Deutsche Bank now regards a September rise as the most likely outcome, and Barclays changed its forecast to expect increases in both September and December (LS) (BBG) (LS). US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to “do the right thing” on policy, declared that “we probably reached the end of Abenomics”, and plans to meet Ueda at the G20 gathering that opens in Asheville today (Reuters).

Market pricing: STIR traders put a September Fed rise near 60%, the ECB’s 10 September move near 90%, a Bank of Japan hike on 18 September at 91%, and Wednesday’s RBNZ increase at 95%, while a Reserve Bank of Australia move on 29 September is priced closer to a coin flip at 49%.

In currencies, the yen firmed 0.16% to 159.84 per dollar after Friday’s break of 160, a move that has strategists mapping the next intervention triggers just above current levels and then in the zone where the authorities last acted (BBG). Rinto Maruyama, senior rates and FX strategist at SMBC Nikko, noted the government “placed considerable emphasis on maintaining an element of surprise” in the previous episode (BBG). The dollar index eased 0.09% to 99.62, the euro was steady at 1.1588, and the offshore yuan firmed 0.14% to 6.7215 (Yahoo). The Australian dollar sat at 0.7165, and its top-ranked forecasters at Santander and Danske Bank called the rally’s peak, both seeing 70 US cents by year-end with the RBA standing pat (BBG).

In bonds, the two-year Treasury yield slipped 1.4 basis points to 4.33%, giving back part of Friday’s surge, while the 10-year was little changed at 4.71% (BBG). The 10-year JGB yield rose 2.0 basis points to 2.95%, near the three-decade highs that have analysts arguing the GPIF pension fund would be justified in raising its domestic bond allocation, a debate with multi-trillion-yen flow implications for both JGBs and the yen (BBG). Weekend polls showing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s support steadying leave her unfunded food tax cut on track for a September airing, which keeps the fiscal question attached to the long end (BBG). The two-year JGB added 1.7 basis points to 1.73%. Bund futures eased 0.14% ahead of the German inflation print, and gilts are shut for the UK bank holiday. In France, Socialist Party chief Olivier Faure joined the presidential race as the party weighs whether to back Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s 2027 budget, the arithmetic behind bond investors’ renewed focus on French debt (BBG).

In commodities, gold fell 0.41% to $4,437, extending the slide that began when higher-rate expectations dimmed the metal’s appeal on Friday (BBG). Copper added 0.20% after the Chinese manufacturing beat (BBG). Goldman Sachs more than doubled its diesel margin forecasts, warning that strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have pushed refined-product margins to new highs with diesel at the epicentre of the rally (BBG). Trump said Venezuelan crude will be used to refill the depleted US strategic reserve, building on Washington’s newly asserted control over Venezuelan output (BBG). Bitcoin fell 0.76% to 77,991, and ether dropped 2.16% (Yahoo).

In corporate news, BYD’s overseas revenue exceeded its domestic take for the first time and the shares fell in Hong Kong, while Meituan rose after a revenue beat prompted brokers to lift price targets (BBG). HDFC Bank’s search for a new chief executive after Sashidhar Jagdishan’s surprise decision to step aside will test confidence in India’s largest private-sector lender (BBG). In Australia, administrators said the collapse of the Sydney developer Bathla is turning into one of the country’s biggest real-estate failures, with estimated liabilities in the billions before counting apartment-buyer deposits (Afr).

Data and the day ahead: Japan’s July industrial production rose 0.1% on the month against a consensus for a 0.7% fall, from 1.9% previously, and retail sales jumped 4.0% on the year against 3.3% expected, from a revised 0.6% (BBG). China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August against 49.5 expected, from 49.2, a second month in contraction, while the non-manufacturing gauge missed at 49.0 against 49.4, held down by a weather-hit construction component (BBG). New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence eased to 53.7 from 56.1 two days before an RBNZ decision at which just over half of the NZIER Shadow Board recommends a quarter-point rise (Org). Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge accelerated to 4.8% on the year from 4.0%, even as the monthly pace cooled to 0.5% from 1.0% (Edu), and second-quarter company profits rose 1.8% against 2.0% expected while inventories fell 0.2% against a 0.5% rise expected, a drag on Wednesday’s GDP arithmetic. Still to come today: the German regional inflation prints from 10:00 CET ahead of the national preliminary release at 14:00 CET, the day’s main event, with the SNB’s weekly sight-deposit data at 10:00 CET, Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson in Västerhaninge at 10:30 CET, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey at 16:30 CET in a US afternoon thinned by the London holiday. The G20 finance meeting runs today and tomorrow (BBG). Later this week: the RBNZ and Bank of Canada decide on Wednesday, euro-area flash inflation lands Tuesday, and the August US payrolls report closes the week on Friday (LS).

Time Stamp: 31 August 2026, 07:49 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Good morning,

I hope all is well.

Here is today’s Markets Briefing Summary: Gold Slips and Stocks Stall as Markets Wait for Warsh

· Markets await Fed Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech, the crucial test of a chairman who has so far refused the market a framework.

· The Fed argued in public on the symposium’s opening evening: Schmid and Hammack say policy restrains nothing, Collins and Goolsbee counsel patience.

· The ECB’s September hike is now confirmed from three directions: the July account called the hold a pause, sources say 2.50% is ready, and two Council members went public with vigilance.

· Tokyo core inflation accelerated a third month, and the two-year JGB auction was weak. A September hike is now almost fully priced.

· The Hormuz story split in two: reopening diplomacy advanced with Iran drafting conditions, while the WSJ reports Washington wants no return to the June deal and Goldman says two-thirds of Gulf barrels are getting out anyway.

· Venezuela is weighing an OPEC exit as Washington discusses a stake in its oil fields, a fresh crack in the cartel’s cohesion months after the UAE’s departure.

· Today’s Macro Roadmap: The main event is Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole at 16:00 CET. Around it: euro-area confidence at 11:00 CET, Canadian GDP at 14:30 CET, Hammack on Bloomberg TV at 15:00 CET, the preliminary benchmark payrolls revision and final Michigan survey at 16:00 CET, Isabel Schnabel at 17:55 CET and Goolsbee on CNBC at 18:40 CET.

Good luck today, and please ping me in the chat if you have any questions or would like to discuss markets.

Full Article:

Markets are awaiting the day’s main event: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech at 16:00 CET, a crucial test of a communications doctrine that has so far refused to give the market a framework (BBG) (Reuters). S&P 500 futures eased 0.12% to 7,733 and the Nasdaq contract 0.30% after the Nvidia-fuelled cash rally; gold slipped 0.57% to 4,573, and Reuters quotes ANZ warning that if Warsh offers too little clarity, that could itself be the adverse market event (Reuters) (Reuters). Futures price roughly a one-in-three chance of a September hike, with a move by December fully priced (Reuters).

In the US, the committee Fed Chair Warsh must carry argued in public on the opening evening. Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid said he does not know what current policy is restricting and put himself in the dissenters’ camp (BBG) (Reuters), Cleveland’s Beth Hammack said now is the time to act, sees inflation ending the year around 3% and fears an inflationary mindset taking hold (CNBC), while Boston’s Susan Collins calls the latest readings mixed, telling Reuters her modal scenario remains gradual disinflation under mildly restrictive policy though she is ready to hike if it stalls (Reuters), and Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee wants evidence the shock is not persistent, though everybody, he says, should be on edge (BBG) (Reuters). The buy side wants a verdict too: Bloomberg reports JPMorgan’s Priya Misra and Apollo’s Torsten Slok urging Warsh to make inflation the unambiguous priority, Slok warning that no framework guidance risks a much bigger move in long rates (Ndtvprofit). Raghuram Rajan, who sits on one of Warsh’s own task forces, told Bloomberg TV the Fed should simply raise rates (BBG). Thirty-year yields sit at 5.20% into the speech (Ndtvprofit).

Regarding the ECB, the July account described the hold twice as merely a pause and said another hike would likely be necessary unless the inflation outlook improved significantly, and Reuters sources say the Council is ready to go to 2.50% on 9-10 September (Reuters). Latvia’s Martins Kazaks told TV3 that inflation must not be allowed to take root and called a September move a considerable possibility, with Morgan Stanley forecasting euro-area inflation at 3.3% next week, per Bloomberg (BBG). And Bulgaria’s Dimitar Radev told Econostream that vigilance should outweigh patience after September, with October and December both live, adding that waiting for second-round effects to become fully visible could mean acting too late (Econostream-media).

In Japan, the September rate hike case hardened again. Tokyo core CPI accelerated a third month to 1.8% with the ex-energy gauge at 2.0%, exactly on consensus, and the jobless rate fell to 2.4% (JapanTimes) (LS).

A two-year JGB auction drew the weakest demand since September with the widest tail since 2016, Bloomberg reports, as investors demand clearer communication before a hike that swaps put at 84% for next month (BBG). Ten-year JGB yields rose 2.6 basis points to 2.93%, approaching the 3% milestone, and the yen slipped 0.09% to 159.53 (BBG). Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told the Yomiuri she will cap new bond issuance around forty trillion yen and restore the food consumption-tax rate after exactly two years, a fiscal anchor offered to a nervous JGB market (Co). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed she will attend next week’s G20 in Asheville, where markets are watching for a follow-up with Bessent on the joint intervention, whose statement, she said, still lives (Investing).

Currently, STIR traders price 9 basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 34% probability of a rate rise, and 27 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 24 basis points for September, a 95% probability, and 44 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 21 basis points for September, an 84% probability, and 40 basis points cumulatively by December. For the RBA, they price 12 basis points for September, a 48% probability, and 27 basis points cumulatively by December. New Zealand’s decision lands next week with 23 basis points priced, a 93% probability.

Regarding oil, Reuters reports the war diplomacy has pivoted to reopening Hormuz, with Iran agreeing to draw up a list of conditions after Qatar’s prime minister pressed Tehran on freedom of navigation (Reuters), and security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei says the US must take practical steps first (Com). But a WSJ exclusive says the Trump administration has told mediators it has no interest in returning to the June memorandum, leaving no agreed framework for the talks the market has been pricing, and another Kuwaiti tanker was hit off Oman on Tuesday (WSJ). The White House confirmed no talks are happening, and crude bounced on it before easing again overnight, WTI down 0.42% at 83.18 this morning and heading for a heavy weekly fall (CNBC) (Reuters). CENTCOM’s Admiral Brad Cooper declared the shipping lanes mine-free while allies privately doubt it (BBG), Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports have recovered to two-thirds of pre-war levels on dark crossings and ship-to-ship transfers (BBG), and traders put Hormuz transit at half the old run-rate and rising (BBG). US crude inventories rose far less than expected last week while distillate stocks fell to 14% below their five-year average, the scarcity now in fuels rather than crude (WSJ). Bloomberg sources say Venezuela is weighing an OPEC exit as Washington discusses taking a stake in its oil fields, one option a 100-year lease (BBG). It would be the second potential departure this year after the UAE, and a fresh crack in the cartel’s cohesion.

In geopolitics and trade, Politico reports the administration is weighing sweeping semiconductor tariffs that could extend to servers and laptops, with the industry warning it would kneecap the AI buildout (Politico). Canada’s chief economists told Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne the trade-war damage is manageable, bolstering Mark Carney’s case for walking away, with second-quarter GDP due at 14:30 CET expected to show a 3.4% annualised rebound (BBG). In France, seven presidential candidates clashed on the economy at the Medef debate, Marine Le Pen promising a 125 billion euro cost-cutting plan and Jean-Luc Mélenchon defending debt cancellation, an idea Edouard Philippe called dangerous (Euronews).

In stocks, the ASX rebounded 0.55% to 9,037 after three days of rate-repricing losses (LS), while Chinese onshore shares eased 0.18% and the EM gauge 0.25% as Korea corrected from its AI-led run (Reuters). European futures firmed, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.30% at 6,453, with the ECB’s path now the market’s least uncertain (Reuters).

In currencies, the dollar index was steady at 99.20 into the speech (Reuters). The Australian dollar held at 0.7195 near its three-month high, on course per Reuters for a ninth straight weekly gain (Reuters), and the won extended its post-hike strength, up 0.46% (Reuters).

In commodities, gold’s slip to 4,573 came with silver and platinum also easing, StoneX arguing the case for a hawkish Warsh is greater than the case against, which could extend the dip before buyers who missed the first leg return (Reuters). Copper was flat at 510, and Bitcoin eased 0.48% to 79,723 after testing the round number overnight (LS).

Data and the day ahead: Tokyo’s CPI trio printed as mentioned already exactly on consensus with the core at 1.8% and the ex-energy measure at 2.0%, Japan’s jobless rate beat at 2.4% (JapanTimes) (LS), New Zealand consumer confidence eased to 98.0, with two-year-ahead inflation expectations still at 4.7% a week before the RBNZ decides (Roymorgan), and the Lloyds barometer put UK business confidence at 53, its highest since the war began, with price expectations a notch lower (LS). Still to come: the Swiss KOF at 09:00 CET, German unemployment at 09:55 CET, euro-area confidence at 11:00 CET, Canadian GDP at 14:30 CET, then the main event: Fed Chair Warsh at 16:00 CET, flanked by Hammack on Bloomberg TV at 15:00 CET, the preliminary benchmark payrolls revision and final Michigan survey at 16:00 CET, the Kansas City Fed services index at 17:00 CET, Isabel Schnabel at Jackson Hole at 17:55 CET and Austan Goolsbee on CNBC at 18:40 CET (LS).

Time Stamp: 28-08-2026, 07:50 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Here is today’s Markets Briefing:

· Nvidia guided to revenue growth in fiscal 2028 far above street expectations and equity futures rose, with Korean chipmakers leading Asia.

· The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge printed above consensus on the headline and money markets now fully price a hike by December, a day before Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech.

· The Bank of Korea hiked back-to-back and raised its growth forecast sharply, with its dot plot pointing higher still; the won firmed.

· Australia’s sell-side stampeded towards rate hikes after the hot CPI, and household spending then smashed estimates; a November move is fully priced.

· BoJ Deputy Governor Himino kept a September hike fully live, stressing upside price risks; the yen slipped on the absence of a stronger signal.

· The WSJ reports the CIA director’s Moscow trip was a warning to Russia not to attack NATO, while Kremlin sources say Moscow is preparing to escalate in Ukraine; wheat sits at a three-year high on Black Sea attacks.

Today’s Macro Roadmap: Euro-area M3 at 10:00 CET, the ECB’s July account at 13:30 CET, then the US 14:30 CET block with the advance goods trade balance, jobless claims and inventories, EIA natural gas at 16:30 CET, the Kansas City Fed index at 17:00 CET and a seven-year auction at 19:00 CET. Cleveland Fed President Hammack appears on CNBC at 16:00 CET and Fox Business at 19:00 CET. Fed Chair Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Full Article:

Equity futures rose as Nvidia guided to roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, far above the roughly 45% analysts had pencilled in, reinforcing the case that the AI investment cycle has years to run (Reuters) (BBG).

CFO Colette Kress said Nvidia would be growing faster still with more supply, guided the current quarter to $108 billion against a $105.2 billion consensus, and warned margins will narrow for a few quarters on surging memory costs (BBG). The Nasdaq contract added 0.57% to 29,456 and the S&P 500 0.30% to 7,713, with Korean chipmakers leading Asia and European futures firmer, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.23% at 6,502 (BBG). Salesforce jumped in late trading on an $11.5 billion quarterly sales outlook and a deepened Anthropic partnership that integrates its products within Claude, CEO Marc Benioff telling sceptics it is time to stop the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ nonsense (BBG) (BBG).

In the US, July’s headline PCE rose 0.2% on the month with the annual rate at 3.7%, a tenth above consensus on both counts, while core came in line at 3.3% (CNBC). Treasuries slipped, two-year yields up a basis point to 4.22% with the ten-year little changed at 4.65%, and money markets now fully price a Fed hike by December (BBG). Longer-horizon inflation compensation edged up, the five-year five-year forward at 2.55% (CNBC). Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole tomorrow, and Reuters reports investors want one thing above all: a framework for how the Fed gets inflation back to 2%, after Warsh abandoned forward guidance and suggested the bond market could do some of the tightening for him (Reuters). The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos reports the Fed chairman is heading to Jackson Hole without a clear stance on inflation, the question splitting his committee being whether it is above target from one-off shocks or an economy running too hot; three officials voted to hike last month, the most dissents in a decade (WSJ). Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack appears on CNBC at 16:00 CET and Fox Business at 19:00 CET (LS).

Regarding the RBA, repricing entered its second day. Commonwealth Bank and Goldman Sachs moved to November hike calls with September risk, ANZ to November, and Deutsche Bank’s Phil O’Donaghoe and NAB’s Sally Auld went furthest with outright September calls, O’Donaghoe calling underlying inflation intolerably high (BBG). The data kept co-operating with the hawks: July household spending rose 1.1% on the month against a 0.3% consensus and 7.0% on the year (BBG), even as second-quarter private capital expenditure fell 3.6% where growth of 0.8% was expected (LS). Three-year yields rose seven basis points to 4.67%, the highest in more than a month (BBG). Our own pricing has September at 47% against 33% yesterday, with a November move fully priced.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back hike to 3.00%, as expected but not unanimously, and Governor Shin Hyun-song called it pre-emptive: the 2026 growth forecast jumped to 3.3% from 2.6% on the AI export boom, core inflation was revised up, and the bank’s own dot plot points a further quarter-point higher within six months (WSJ). The won firmed 0.29% to 1,380.76 (WSJ). In Japan, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino kept September fully live without arming the signalling machine, saying the Bank must pay greater attention to upside price risks than in the past and will debate at every meeting (BBG) (Reuters). The yen slipped towards 159.35 on the absence of a clearer hint, with swaps implying roughly an 82% chance of a September move (BBG). Weekly flow data showed Japanese investors selling foreign bonds at pace, consistent with money coming home ahead of a move (LS). New Zealand’s decision lands next week with a hike almost fully priced, and bonds fell across Australia, New Zealand and Japan (BBG).

Currently, STIR traders price 9 basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 36% probability of a rate rise, and 26 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 24 basis points for September, a 97% probability, and 42 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 20 basis points for September, an 81% probability, and 40 basis points cumulatively by December. For the RBA, they price 12 basis points for September, a 47% probability, and 28 basis points cumulatively by December.

Regarding US bonds, Bloomberg reports sell-side strategists now treat the 4 November refunding as a wildcard, with options running from shifting new borrowing into bills to outright cuts in long-bond auction sizes, and one bank raising the tail risk that the 20-year bond is eliminated altogether (BBG). The common thread is that Bessent’s buybacks are read as a bridge to a maturity-shortening announcement rather than an end in themselves (BBG). Gold traded back above $4,600, up 0.38% at 4,608 and nearly 15% this month, as the debasement trade met fresh Fed-independence headlines: Governor Lisa Cook again denied the mortgage-fraud allegations as the President weighs renewing his effort to remove her (BBG).

In geopolitics, the WSJ reports CIA Director John Ratcliffe went to warn Russia not to attack NATO countries, after intelligence assessments that Vladimir Putin could test the alliance with a limited assault on a Baltic state (WSJ). Bloomberg’s Kremlin sources say Russia is preparing to escalate missile attacks on Ukraine, having concluded the negotiations are at a dead end (BBG). The market expression is in food: wheat sits at a three-year high on Black Sea attacks curbing shipments (BBG). Washington’s cyber front widened too, with the DOJ saying it disrupted China-linked hackers who targeted NASA, the Federal Reserve and the Senate (Yahoo). On the other war, the Hormuz diplomacy advanced again, with the IRGC saying revenue-sharing terms with Oman have been agreed and Qatar’s prime minister travelling to Tehran today to relaunch the wider talks (Yahoo) (Reuters), and crude extended its slide, Brent down 1.02% to 86.94 and WTI 1.09% to 81.33 (Yahoo) (BBG).

In Europe, the French 2027 budget is due in parliament by 6 October, with a hung assembly, and every procedural route ending in more issuance (USNews). Macron’s potential successors clash over the economic future at the Medef conference this evening, with Marine Le Pen consistently topping first-round polls (BBG). In Germany, the AfD holds a wide lead ahead of the 6 September Saxony-Anhalt vote that could produce the country’s first far-right-led state government (BBG), and Chancellor Friedrich Merz signalled a tougher trade stance on China ahead of October’s EU summit (BBG). The ECB publishes the account of its July meeting at 13:30 CET (LS).

In stocks elsewhere, the ASX fell 0.93% to 8,988 as the rate repricing did its work (BBG), the Nikkei eased 0.45% to 66,110 (BBG), Hong Kong slipped 0.37% to 25,575 as China’s industrial profit growth cooled to 11.2%, the slowest this year (CNBC), while the CSI 300 rose 0.71% (BBG). Meta agreed to pay up to eighteen billion dollars to settle the states’ teen-harm cases, with payments scaling only if YouTube, TikTok and Snap accept similar terms (JapanTimes). Pernod Ricard cut its medium-term growth outlook to the bottom of its range on US weakness (BBG).

In currencies, the dollar index was flat at 99.153, the Australian dollar held at 0.7183 near its recent high (BBG), and the forint led the smaller gainers. In commodities beyond oil and gold, copper eased 0.08% to 511, consolidating after the squeeze (BBG), and Bitcoin firmed 0.36% to 78,725.

Data and the day ahead: German GfK consumer confidence jumped to -26.6 from -29.6, well past the -29.5 consensus and the best reading in months (LS). Australia’s July household spending rose 1.1% on the month and 7.0% on the year against consensus of 0.3% and 5.7%, while second-quarter private capex fell 3.6% against expected growth of 0.8% (LS) (BBG). China’s July industrial profits grew 11.2%, the slowest this year (CNBC). Still to come: euro-area M3 at 10:00 CET, the ECB’s July account at 13:30 CET, then the US 14:30 CET block with the advance goods trade balance, jobless claims and inventories, EIA natural gas storage at 16:30 CET, the Kansas City Fed index at 17:00 CET, and a seven-year auction at 19:00 CET (LS). Cleveland Fed President Hammack is on CNBC at 16:00 CET and Fox Business at 19:00 CET, and Fed Chair Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday (LS) (Reuters).

Time Stamp: 27 August 2026, 08:43 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Good morning {{firstName}},

I hope all is well.

Here is today’s Markets Briefing: Oil Prices Decline as Hormuz Cracks Open, Canada Hits Back, and Nvidia Reports Tonight

· Iran and Oman discussed an interim framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and crude extended its slide for a third day as markets price the direction of travel.

· Canada retaliated dollar for dollar, rate for rate: tariffs of up to fifty per cent on seven hundred categories of American goods from early September, aimed squarely at midterm swing states.

· Australian core inflation refused to ease and pricing for another rate hike by December jumped to near-certainty, with one bank switching to a September call.

· The Bessent put is showing up in the data: the thirty-year swap spread is the tightest since February and rates volatility keeps falling, even as his own mentor urges him in print to stop.

· A Reuters poll shows economists swinging from five per cent to a majority expecting a September Bank of Japan hike in a single month, while the governor skips Jackson Hole and sends the board’s arch-hawk instead.

· Copper is closing in on its record high on tight supply and tariff front-running, and gold consolidates just under a three-month high.

· Today’s Macro Roadmap: US July PCE at 14:30 CET, where the Fed’s preferred core gauge is expected unchanged on the year, alongside durable goods and the second GDP estimate. The ECB’s Cipollone speaks at 12:10 CET, the Richmond Fed’s Barkin at 17:45 and the SNB’s Martin at 18:15. Nvidia reports after the US close, the Bank of Korea decides overnight, and Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Full Article:

Oil prices eased after Bloomberg reported that Iran and Oman discussed an interim framework to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz: a temporary joint maritime corridor with mine clearance, with talks of a permanent route within thirty to sixty days (BBG). The American president separately claimed the Navy has cleared the strait of mines, warning that any vessel laying new ones would be destroyed (BBG). Brent fell 1.73% to 87.05 and WTI 1.83% to 80.85, a third straight day of losses (BBG) (Reuters). The de-escalation is visible beyond the oil market too: Reuters reports Washington has started returning staff to its Middle East missions after the wartime evacuations (Reuters). The move helped ease the inflation strain that has kept central banks hawkish and led to a rally in bonds, with ten-year Treasury yields down six and a half basis points on Tuesday before steadying at 4.64% this morning (Reuters).

On the tariff front, Ottawa announced counter-tariffs of up to 50% on roughly twenty billion dollars of American goods from 8 September, more than seven hundred categories at rates of fifteen, twenty-five or fifty per cent, with existing steel and aluminium duties doubled to match Washington exactly, and dairy among the headline targets (SCMP) (BBG). The finance minister called it dollar for dollar, rate for rate (SCMP). The White House is already discussing the next step, with an official saying a response is expected and pointing to the President’s promise to double car tariffs to 50% from January (BBG). The Canadian list is aimed with some precision: it hits hardest in Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan, states that decide the midterms in November, and even Ontario’s combative premier called for a truce while backing the retaliation (BBG). The Richmond Fed president said the dispute itself is less the issue than the broader question of where tariff rates finally land, on which he has received no signal yet (BBG).

In central banks, the day’s sharpest repricing is Australian. July core inflation refused to ease, with the trimmed mean holding at 3.6% against a consensus of 3.5% and the monthly pace accelerating to 0.5% from 0.3%, while pricing for another hike by December jumped to about 95% from 67% before the release (BBG). Investment banks are busy revising their calls for the RBA, with Goldman Sachs now expecting a hike in November and one German bank switching its call to a September rate rise, arguing the print leaves the Reserve Bank little room to do anything but follow through on its hawkish posturing (BBG).

In Europe, ECB executive board member Schnabel told Bloomberg that further tightening will be necessary because inflation is unlikely to return to target at the current rate, pointing to gas storage as a particular concern (BBG), while Reuters sources say the Governing Council is ready to hike to 2.50% in September but has little appetite to signal anything beyond it (Reuters). In Japan, a Reuters poll found 57% of economists now expect a September move, from 5% a month ago, with the expected terminal rate shifting higher and two-thirds judging last month’s coordinated intervention ineffective on its own (Reuters). Services prices among companies rose 3.6% in July, the fastest since May, with ocean freight up 67.4% on war rerouting, the largest gain in data back to 1986 (BBG). The governor is skipping Jackson Hole, sending the board’s most hawkish member in his place, and the deputy governor speaks on Thursday (Reuters). The Bank of Korea decides overnight, with a slim majority of economists expecting a back-to-back hike to 3% and upgraded forecasts alongside (BBG).

Currently, STIR traders price 10 basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 39% probability of a rate rise, and 25 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 23 basis points for September, a 92% probability, and 40 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 21 basis points for September, an 85% probability, and 42 basis points cumulatively by December.

For all the scepticism around the Treasury’s buybacks, Bloomberg reports the intervention is showing up in market metrics: the thirty-year swap spread has narrowed to its smallest since February, options positioning has tilted towards calls on long bond futures, and rates volatility fell again, with traders reluctant to stand in front of a buyer with official resolve (BBG). Set against that, the Secretary’s own mentor urged him in print to abandon the programme, writing that a thirty-year clearing at five and a half per cent is not a crisis but an invoice, and that every basis point of artificial suppression is a subsidy to procrastination (CNBC). One strategist argued the suppression simply fails without the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and a fair-value camp notes the ten-year is trading almost exactly on its long-run average, suggesting nothing needs fixing at all (CNBC). The Richmond Fed president added that rising debt ends in a reckoning at some unknowable date, that July’s hold was a close call, and that two more months of data arrive before the September meeting (BBG).

In stocks, Asia rose ahead of the chipmaker’s results tonight, the regional gauge up with Korean chipmakers leading, the Kospi the world’s second-best major index this year (BBG) (Reuters). SoftBank is considering a bond sale of up to twenty billion dollars to help fund its OpenAI financing commitment, per a Bloomberg report (Biztoc). The Nikkei added 0.53% to 66,290, Hong Kong 0.63% to 25,710 and the CSI 300 0.94% to 4,565, while the ASX fell 0.35% to 9,082 as the inflation print did its work (BBG) (Reuters). US futures were slightly lower, with the S&P 500 contract off 0.10% and the Nasdaq 0.15%, as analysts expected the bellwether Nvidia to guide third-quarter sales up more than eighty per cent and the options market implied a smaller post-earnings move than usual (Reuters). European shares were set for modest gains, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.12% at 6,481.

In currencies, the dollar index edged up 0.06% to 98.97 and is still down about 1% for August (Reuters). The Australian dollar was the day’s mover, up 0.28% to 0.7183 near a three-month high on the inflation surprise (BBG). The yen firmed 0.11% to 159.01, and the euro softened slightly despite the hawkish board comments (BBG).

In commodities, copper rose 0.70% to 523.85, closing in on its record intraday high after its highest ever close, with spot material still commanding a large premium after last week’s squeeze, metal continuing to ship to the United States ahead of an expected tariff decision, and mine setbacks in Indonesia, Congo and Chile having removed a substantial slice of first-half supply (BBG). Gold eased 0.41% to 4,638, consolidating just under its three-month high with fund inflows the strongest since January (BBG). Bitcoin held near its own three-month high at 79,045, up 1.08% (Reuters).

In other news, this article caught my eye: Australia’s second-largest pension fund has built its biggest yen overweight in years, betting the market has priced in the energy drag but the Bank of Japan wrong (BBG). It sees fair value for the dollar-yen pair around 150, is simultaneously underweight Treasuries, and draws the week’s sharpest distinction: Tokyo is buying time until higher rates can support its currency, while Washington is fighting fundamentals (BBG).

Data and the day ahead: Japan’s services producer prices rose 3.6% in July, the fastest since May, and the prior months were revised higher (BBG).

Sweden’s July PPI eased to 6.4% from 7.4%. Still to come: The day’s main event is the July PCE report at 14:30 CET, where the Fed’s preferred core gauge is seen unchanged at 3.3% on the year, alongside durable goods and the second GDP estimate (LS). The ECB’s Cipollone speaks at 12:10 CET, the Richmond Fed’s Barkin at 17:45, and the SNB’s Martin at 18:15 (LS). The chipmaker reports after the US close, the Bank of Korea decides overnight, and the week still ends with the Federal Reserve chairman at Jackson Hole on Friday (BBG) (Reuters).

Time Stamp: 26-08-2026, 07:59 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Good morning,

I hope all is well.

Here is a brief summary of today’s Markets Briefing:

· Bitcoin climbed above eighty thousand dollars for the first time since May, and the explanation given is the debasement trade rather than anything specific to crypto.

· The Treasury Secretary stopped short of new debt-management measures on Monday, saying the US has not bought a single bond yet, and his own early mentor called the buying a mistake.

· A Bank of Japan gauge of underlying inflation stayed above target in July, hardening the case for a September rate rise that the market already prices at better than four-fifths.

· Reserve Bank of Australia minutes showed a board that debated a rate rise at length before deciding it had time to wait for more inflation data.

· Chip stocks fell to their lowest since July, and the sector bellwether posted its longest losing streak since 2022, with its earnings due Wednesday.

· Canada answers the new US tariffs today with jobless benefits and business loans, while the prime minister has softened from dollar-for-dollar retaliation towards a more targeted response.

· Today’s Macro Roadmap: German business confidence is the main European release, with the survey expected to improve despite a soft domestic picture. Australia’s monthly inflation print lands overnight and is expected to show the core measure easing again. The week’s two set-piece events are the chipmaker’s earnings on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve chairman’s debut Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Full article:

The US Treasury’s efforts to rein in the rise in long-term bonds remain the dominant theme in markets. Bloomberg reports that investors are buying hedges against a long-term decline in the dollar, and they are buying them in two markets at once. A strategist put both trades in the same sentence, calling the revival in cryptocurrencies a signal of the same concern behind gold’s buoyant month (BBG).

The common cause is a Treasury that has begun intervening in its own bond market while the deficit path is unchanged. A European bank’s head of currency research describes the buybacks, together with the encouragement of a Federal Reserve facility that let Tokyo borrow dollars against its Treasury holdings rather than sell them, as soft-form financial repression aimed at containing the long end. His point is the one that matters for every other market: if the price of Treasuries is not allowed to adjust downwards, the adjustment has to happen somewhere, and where it happens is the dollar (Yahoo).

A CNBC report suggested the Treasury might tap its cash pile to fund buybacks of higher-yielding older securities, and Treasuries were supported through the US session on it (BBG) (BBG). In a press conference on Monday, the Treasury Secretary then stopped short of any further signal on debt management, saying the department would continue with its regular programme and that no changes would come before the November refunding, and when asked whether he would increase the buybacks, he said the United States had not bought a single bond yet (BBG). The announced expansion at least doubles liquidity-support operations in 10- to 30-year debt from 9 September, with the published calendar to early November indicating up to 14 billion dollars, against a deficit the Congressional Budget Office puts at 2.1 trillion this fiscal year, some 200 billion worse than last (BBG) (BBG). One senior economist called amounts on that scale normal cash-flow variations for the Treasury (BBG). The fiscal repair meant to follow is not obviously coming either: Republican leaders dropped several hundred billion of spending cuts earlier this summer, the House has passed an unfunded 95 billion dollar war measure, and one Republican senator said plainly that deficits are not a winning election issue even though acting on them is right (BBG).

Strategists at two large American banks said the buybacks are unlikely to bring long rates down, one arguing the plan does not address the actual sources of long-end volatility and would not reset rate levels even if scaled up, the other that another catalyst would be needed, such as slower growth and inflation, less uncertainty about Fed policy, fiscal consolidation, or lighter corporate issuance (BBG). Three further houses expect the curve to keep steepening, the opposite of what the Treasury was trying to achieve (BBG). However, one American bank sees better asymmetric risk and reward at the long end now that a Treasury put exists, and argues the story of an unanchored back end is overplayed (BBG). The Secretary’s own early mentor was blunter, writing in a newspaper column that governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose, that the long-term Treasury yield is the only fiscal disciplinarian the country has left, and that the bond market had not been acting as a vigilante but as a pushover that had finally begun to clear its throat (BBG).

Regarding central banks, the Bank of Japan’s own gauge of underlying inflation stayed above target, rising 2.3% in July on the 2025 base against the 1.8% government core measure published last week (LS). The measure strips out fresh food and the effects of government fuel and utility support, and was introduced this March precisely to see through those distortions. It lends weight to the Bank’s argument that it must stay vigilant on upside risks, and a former board member argues the Bank is now boxed in: with a hike almost fully priced, holding would risk sending the yen sharply lower again, and the Treasury Secretary’s public hope that Tokyo moves makes it harder for a pro-stimulus government to object (BBG). He expects a follow-up as early as January and a cycle running beyond the 1.25% to 1.5% once thought terminal, against a median economist forecast of 1.5% (BBG). Economists surveyed this month lifted their forecast for core inflation in the first quarter of 2027 to 3% from 2.8% (LS). The Reserve Bank of Australia’s August minutes showed a board that discussed the case to raise at length before judging the current setting was doing its work, with several members saying it was quite possible the upside risks to the inflation forecast would crystallize and require tightening (Reuters). Australian money markets price 3 basis points for September, an 11% probability, and 15 basis points cumulatively by December. Monthly inflation data due on Wednesday is expected to show the core measure edging down (Reuters).

Friday’s Fed Chair Warsh’s speech carries more than its usual weight, because the chairman has come close to endorsing the very rise in yields the Treasury is trying to reverse, saying in July that markets had done quite a bit of the work and would go on responding as they saw fit (BBG). The backdrop is structural rather than cyclical: what was once described as a global savings glut has become a savings squeeze, with government debt, fractured supply lines, the cost of ageing and the artificial-intelligence build-out all competing for the same pool of capital (Reuters). American inflation has now run above the 2% target for more than five years, and the July minutes record colleagues worried both that delay would mean steeper increases later and that the longer the overshoot persists the more the public doubts the commitment (Reuters). Two houses warn the risk on Friday may be a hawkish message reaffirming that commitment and keeping further tightening on the table, and anyone hoping for a return of traditional forward guidance is likely to be disappointed (BBG). Senate Democrats have separately asked the chairman to detail his communications with the President (Reuters).

Currently, STIR traders price 11 basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 43% probability of a rate rise, and 28 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 23 basis points for September, a 92% probability, and 43 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 20 basis points for September, an 81% probability, and 40 basis points cumulatively by December.

In stocks, futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq gauge rose 0.42% to 29,229 after the underlying index fell almost a per cent on Monday in a semiconductor selloff that took a gauge of chip stocks to its lowest since July (BBG). The bellwether chipmaker posted its longest losing streak since 2022 as investors pared holdings ahead of Wednesday’s earnings (BBG). The credit market is watching the same trade from underneath: five-year default protection on one large chip designer rose 28 basis points this month, more than on two comparable technology borrowers, as it backstops financing packages for the build-out, and a strategist warned of a growing layer of phantom leverage beneath the sector as leases, purchase commitments and residual-value guarantees stretch into the trillions (BBG). The S&P 500 contract added 0.14%. In Asia, the ASX led with a 0.74% gain to 9,109 after the Reserve Bank minutes, the Nikkei rose 0.55% to 65,800 and the regional emerging-market gauge added 0.60% to 1,699 after erasing an early decline (BBG). European shares were set to open firmer, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.25% at 6,482.

In currencies, the dollar held Monday’s gains, the index up 0.07% at 99.08. It had firmed after the Treasury Secretary said the United States would cut Iran off from the global financial system (BBG) (BBG). The yen was little changed at 159.32, still close to the level that drew coordinated intervention last month despite a policy path the market now prices heavily (LS). The Canadian dollar was steady at 1.386.

In Canada, the 50% American tariffs took effect on Saturday across hundreds of items including furniture, plastics, plywood and electrical equipment, imposed under never-before-used provisions of a 1930 statute that overrides the trade agreement signed in the President’s first term (BBG). A University of Calgary economist estimates that 90,000 jobs, roughly four-tenths of a per cent of the labour force, could be lost if they persist, and one Canadian bank’s economist put the growth cost at two-tenths this year and three-tenths next (BBG). Ottawa’s answer is already dated: counter-tariffs on 20 billion dollars of American steel, dairy, appliances and electronics from 8 September, matching the American measure almost exactly, with the prime minister saying the country was attacked rather than the aggressor (BBG). That date matters, because it leaves a fortnight in which talks could restart, and the government privately sees little chance of that before the November midterms (BBG). By Monday the tone had shifted slightly, the prime minister conceding that matching the larger economy dollar for dollar is difficult, and a more targeted route may follow, though everything remains on the table (Ndtvprofit). Ministers set out the domestic half today at 11:00 Ottawa time, expanded jobless benefits and business loans on the pandemic model (Ndtvprofit). The Bank of Canada faces a bind: American tariffs weaken growth, while retaliation raises prices at home (BBG).

In commodities, Bitcoin traded above eighty thousand dollars for the first time since mid-May, up 2.29% to 80,737, and the weekly move is the striking one: a 23% gain in the seven days to Sunday, the biggest in about three years, forced the liquidation of billions in leveraged positions (Thehindubusinessline). It remains well below the peak it set in October (Thehindubusinessline). Gold consolidated after a four-day run, slipping 0.26% to 4,640, having touched its highest since May, and the participation is broadening: bullion-backed funds added more than 28 tons last week, the most since January, while one American bank lifted its three-month target and cautioned that physical demand needs to catch up for the rally to continue (BBG). Brent was little changed at 92.10 at the time of writing, after the Treasury Secretary threatened economic punishment for countries doing business with Iran, naming more than sixty entities and five lifelines including gold, shipping and digital assets, and promising to sanction a major financial institution by the end of this week (BBG). Whether any of it binds depends on China, which buys the bulk of Iranian crude: asked why the punishment was not immediate, the Secretary said he had no wish to blow up the global financial system, and a former diplomat noted this was the warning of a landing rather than the landing itself (BBG) (BBG). Copper eased 0.28% to 510.49.

Data and the day ahead: German second-quarter growth was revised up to 0.3% on the quarter and 1.0% on the year, both a tenth better than expected, but the composition was poor. Private consumption rose 0.1% against 0.2% expected, capital investment fell 0.2% where growth was forecast, and government spending added just 0.1% against 0.9%, so the fiscal impulse all but stopped. Norwegian unemployment held at 4.5% on a revised prior. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its 10-11 August meeting at 03:30 CET and its assistant governor spoke at 06:00 CET, Japan’s leading index came in at 116.5 for the final June reading against 116.4 and the coincident index at 118.5 from 118.2, and department store sales accelerated sharply in July, the nationwide measure to 5.1% from 2.3% and the Tokyo measure to 9.0% from 4.4%. Australia sold 1.2 billion Australian dollars of 2031 bonds at 4.63%. Still to come: the German business climate index at 10:00 CET, seen rising to 87.2 from 86.6, with Friday’s flash surveys having shown manufacturing output at a 55-month high on defence and artificial-intelligence investment even as the composite slipped (LS). The week’s two set-piece events are Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve chairman’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday (Reuters).

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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The Treasury’s intervention lasted about a day. Long-end yields rose again on Thursday even as the Secretary flagged scope for repurchases larger than the four billion dollars planned for next month, and the 30-year sits at 5.25% after sliding nine basis points on Wednesday and jumping six the following session (BBG). Treasuries steadied overnight, but bonds fell in Japan, Australia and New Zealand, and the dollar slipped against every Group-of-Ten peer (BBG).

One market analyst said the expanded buyback plan failed to convince investors it can durably contain long-term borrowing costs (BBG). A strategist at a large American advisory firm put it more directly, arguing the Bessent put will still fail to keep yields down from multi-decade highs and that lowering them over any longer period requires the painful work of bringing the debt down. Bank strategists noted that with the budget set by Congress rather than the Treasury, adjustments around buybacks can have only a small, transient effect. Analysts at three separate firms warned that the surprises themselves raise term premium, the extra compensation investors demand for holding government paper. The Secretary played down the reaction, saying anything that happens within a 24-hour period is noise (BBG).

The St. Louis president Musalem, who does not vote this year, said the move reflects a competition for capital between gross government financing and the artificial-intelligence build-out now being financed in the United States and globally, rather than any doubt about the central bank. Inflation expectations are anchored, and Fed credibility is not in question, he said, while repeating that he would have preferred to raise rates in July and that he sees a greater probability inflation fails to return to the 2% target within eighteen months without higher rates (BBG). Meanwhile, payments on a median-priced home took 34% of a typical family’s income in the second quarter, up from 32% in the first, as 30-year mortgage rates climbed near a one-year high of 6.8% (BBG).

Currently, STIR traders price 9 basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 35% probability of a rate rise, and 23 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 24 basis points for September, a 96% probability, and 46 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 20 basis points for September, an 82% probability, and 39 basis points cumulatively by December.

In stocks, Asian equities steadied, and the regional gauge rose 0.6%, with US futures pointing to modest gains, the S&P 500 contract up 0.07% at 7,668 and the Nasdaq up 0.20% at 29,358 (BBG). Hong Kong rose 0.75% to 25,887, and the CSI 300 rose 0.67% to 4,610 after Beijing pledged timely fiscal support (Reuters). Tokyo was the exception, the Nikkei down 0.77% to 65,850 against a firmer rates backdrop. Samsung shares climbed about 4% before an expected shareholder-return package that may be worth as much as 110 trillion won (BBG). European shares were set for a tepid start after seven consecutive days of losses, their longest losing streak since September 2023 (BBG).

In Japan, inflation accelerated for a second month and came in exactly on consensus across all three measures, the headline at 1.9% from 1.6%, the central bank’s own core gauge at 1.8% from 1.6% and the measure excluding fresh food and energy at 1.9% from 1.7% (LS). Flash surveys strengthened alongside, the composite at 53.4 from 52.7 with manufacturing at 55.1 (LS). The BOJ is priced at 82% for September, and the yen firmed 0.13% to 158.85.

In currencies, the dollar index eased 0.18% to 98.72 as investors baulked at the Treasury’s rescue efforts (Reuters). The euro traded at 1.1697 and sterling at 1.3651; the pound was helped by domestic consumer confidence climbing to a two-year high at -14, above expectations of a slip to -18 (LS). The won strengthened 0.81% to 1,383. The Canadian dollar firmed 0.21% to 1.3761 after a trade official described a tariff deal with Washington as very close (WSJ).

In commodities, gold rose 0.70% to 4,548 and is on course for a third weekly gain (Reuters). Brent fell 0.30% to 93.50 and WTI 0.48% to 86.41, snapping a five-day rally, as Chinese refiners kept buying in check with prices above ninety dollars and Iranian barrels bound for China were squeezed by the blockade (BBG). Washington said it would impose the toughest sanctions in its history on Iran (Reuters), with the Treasury Secretary telling CNBC that countries are either with the United States or against it and calling the plan the greatest coordinated economic isolation in history, with details promised at a press conference on Monday. The difficulty is that China remains the principal buyer of Iranian crude, so the measures aim at Beijing as much as at Tehran (BBG). Copper rose 1.17% on the Chinese support pledge.

In corporate news, Broadcom is in talks with lenders to raise more than $ 60 billion in debt for an artificial-intelligence chip financing arrangement benefiting Anthropic and others (BBG). Anthropic expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record initial public offering (Thehindubusinessline). Monte dei Paschi is seeking to buy two banks for a combined 34 billion euros to avoid being taken over itself (BBG).

In other news, this article caught my eye: Private credit’s next big thing is 1 trillion in British pensions (WSJ). The industry that has already reshaped corporate lending is now targeting the retirement savings of British workers, which is the point at which a wholesale funding story becomes a retail one.

Data and the day ahead: New Zealand swung to a July trade deficit of 1,949 million New Zealand dollars from a revised 237 million shortfall, as imports jumped to 9.34 billion against exports of 7.39 billion (LS). Australia’s flash composite eased to 52.5 from 53.2, with services leading the moderation (LS). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s quarterly business survey showed inflation expectations falling across every horizon, with the one-year and two-year measures both down sharply, which sits awkwardly against a September rise priced at 93%. Still to come: the euro-area flash PMIs from 09:15 CET with France first, Germany at 09:30 and the bloc at 10:00, the UK composite at 10:30 CET, ECB wages at 11:00 CET, Canadian retail sales at 14:30 CET, and the US flash PMIs at 15:45 CET, where manufacturing is seen little changed and services easing slightly. Euro-area consumer confidence follows at 16:00 CET. No central-bank speakers are scheduled for the rest of the session, with the Reserve Bank of Australia governor and the ECB’s Sleijpen both speaking overnight.

Time Stamp: 21-08-2026, 07:55 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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The US Treasury moved to rein in rising long-term bond yields, saying it would at least double its planned purchases of outstanding ten- to thirty-year debt (BBG). Yields declined in response, and the move spilt over into Asian bond markets, even as Fed minutes released the same evening showed several policymakers had wanted to raise rates last month (BBG).

A Bloomberg index of Treasuries maturing in twenty years and beyond jumped 1.7% on Wednesday, its biggest one-day gain since February 2025, after the thirty-year yield had reached its highest since 2007 earlier in the week (BBG). Overnight, the rally extended, the US 30-year easing 0.8bp to 5.18% and the 10-year 0.8bp to 4.64% (BBG). Australian and Japanese bond yields followed, the Australian 10-year down 5.4bp to 5.00% and its Japanese counterpart down 6.6bp to 2.84%, with the former also helped by a weaker-than-expected Australian labour market report (LS).

The announcement came two weeks after the Treasury had already published its buyback schedule, and this month it had separately opened the door to cutting issuance of longer-dated debt. On 31 July the same secretary oversaw the first American purchases of yen in three decades, an action read as reducing Japan’s need to sell down its Treasury holdings (BBG). One former Treasury official now at a research group called him an activist, adding that it harkens back to his hedge-fund background (BBG). One chief investment officer said the buyback suggests the Treasury is highly concerned about long-term borrowing costs and that, as with the yen, the effect will be temporary because the buybacks cannot be sustained for long (BBG). A bank research team warned separately that an open-ended programme carries credibility risk and clouds the outlook for bill supply, since replacing long debt with short paper amounts to a version of Operation Twist (BBG) (BBG). The backdrop is a public debt stock that has passed forty trillion dollars, a level that has revived talk of a doom loop between borrowing costs and the deficit (BBG). Meanwhile, a prominent asset manager was identified as the firm behind a four billion dollar contrarian bond trade, positioning against the very move that had gripped the market (BBG).

The Fed minutes showed that several participants favoured a quarter-point increase at the July meeting, and many judged that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline, with some adding that financial conditions might not be restrictive enough to return inflation to target (BBG). The decision carried three dissents, from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, all of whom wanted the rise immediately (BBG). A few of them argued that moving then would forestall a steeper and more costly sequence later (BBG). One head of US rates strategy said Federal Reserve rate rises could help flatten the yield curve (BBG).

Currently, STIR traders price eight basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 31% probability of a rate rise, and 22 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 23 basis points for September, a 93% probability, and 42 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 20 basis points for September, a 78% probability, and 39 basis points cumulatively by December.

In stocks, advances in Asia were led by a 5.5% jump in South Korea’s Kospi, with SK Hynix surging 12% on a share buyback plan and Samsung up 8.5%, and the regional equity gauge snapped a two-day losing streak with a 1.6% gain (BBG). The Nikkei rose 0.99% to 66,130, the Hang Seng 1.26% to 25,779 and the emerging-market index 0.86% to 1,704, while US futures edged up, the S&P 500 contract 0.11% to 7,738 and the Nasdaq 0.36% to 29,618. European shares were set to drop for a seventh consecutive day, the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.19% at 6,458 and the DAX down 0.16% at 26,142 (BBG).

In Australia, employment fell 15,800 in July against expectations of a 12,000 rise, entirely through part-time roles, and the jobless rate climbed to 4.5% from 4.4% (LS). It is the highest unemployment rate in nearly five years, and it supports the central bank’s own view that the labour market is loosening after it raised rates at each of its first three meetings this year (BBG). One chief rates strategist said the September meeting still overprices the risk of a hike and that this print makes a September move very unlikely (BBG). Money markets cut the probability of an increase by December to 52% from 68% before the release (BBG). The Australian dollar fell 0.15% to 0.7114.

In currencies, the dollar index steadied at 98.86 after sliding on Wednesday to its lowest since May (BBG). The yen eased 0.31% to 158.66 as domestic bonds rallied and a twenty-year auction drew firmer demand than the twelve-month average (BBG). The euro traded at 1.1673 and sterling at 1.3606, while the won weakened 0.42% to 1,394.5 even as Korean equities surged. One currency strategist argued that buybacks signal policymakers leaning against further yield increases and that the relative-rate story supporting the dollar is fading (BBG).

In commodities, gold fell 0.71% to 4,483 after reaching its highest since early June (Reuters). Brent edged up 0.05% to 91.67 after Trump said there would be an unprecedented economic warfare operation against Iran, having faulted Tehran for failing to take its chance at a deal (BBG). He also warned of economic consequences for any country that continues to support Tehran (Reuters). Bloomberg reports that Iran is at risk of losing a key economic lifeline as the UAE halts trade with it (JapanTimes). Copper slipped 0.23%. Bitcoin rose 0.79% to 69,588 after a record volume of short positions was liquidated, with the White House pressing Congress on a crypto bill (BBG).

In corporate news, Marvell Technology agreed to give Alphabet’s Google rights to buy as much as 12.2 billion dollars of its shares in exchange for purchasing chips (BBG). Estée Lauder’s results beat estimates and ended a three-straight-quarter run of declines in annual revenue (BBG).

Data and the day ahead: Japan’s July trade deficit came in at 634.5 billion yen, narrower than the 649.0 billion expected though wider than the revised 409.9 billion prior, with exports up 23.2% against 20.1% expected and imports up 27.8% against 25.1% (LS). China left both loan prime rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% as expected (LS). Australian consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9% from 4.7% (LS). Still to come: the Riksbank decision at 09:30 CET, where a hold at 1.75% is unanimous in the survey, and the whole event is the guidance, followed by its press conference at 11:00 CET, the account of the July ECB meeting at 13:30 CET, US weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey at 14:30 CET, and the ECB’s Sleijpen at 21:30 CET. There is no Fed speaker scheduled.

Time Stamp: 20-08-2026, 08:10 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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A global semiconductor selloff that began with the Philadelphia chip index’s worst session since late July yesterday spread through Asia, where Korean shares led the region down with a plunge that tripped the exchange’s program-selling halt, and the bond market that caused the damage finally caught a haven bid (BBG).

Asian equities fell hard and broadly. The Nikkei dropped 3.39% to 65,250, a second day of losses led by the AI complex, with SoftBank under heavy pressure after a report it plans a large retail bond issue to fund its OpenAI commitments (BBG).

Samsung and SK Hynix slumped more than seven per cent apiece in Seoul as concern over hyperscaler borrowing costs hit the memory names (BBG). The CSI 300 fell 2.29% to 4,594, and MSCI’s emerging-market index lost 0.38% to 1,664, while US futures pointed lower, the S&P 500 contract down 0.18% at 7,700 and the Nasdaq down 0.41% at 29,465 (BBG). Equity pain brought bond-market relief: the US ten-year yield eased 1.6bp to 4.69%, and the 30-year fell 1.2bp to 5.27% after Tuesday’s two-decade high, a move strategists attributed to a knee-jerk haven bid meeting heavily stretched short positioning (BBG). Japan’s ten-year yield fell 6.6bp to 2.89% (LS).

In credit, Alphabet is set to pay just under 7% on the 20-year tranche of its debut Australian dollar deal, potentially its highest-ever coupon, a price that reflects this week’s multi-decade-high global yields rather than any doubt about the credit (Yahoo). At least seven high-grade issuers stood down from the US market on Tuesday as spreads widened and supply surged (BBG).

The central-bank chorus stayed hawkish against that dovish drift. RBA deputy governor Hauser named the Middle East conflict, the AI boom and poor productivity as the three upside inflation risks on his mind and said plainly that if they crystallise, the Bank will raise rates again, with markets pricing roughly a 60% chance of a move by December (Reuters). ECB chief economist Lane said euro-area inflation will hover around 3% for the rest of the year and flagged food prices as next year’s driver, keeping September’s hike near fully priced (BBG). In Japan, a major domestic portfolio manager expects the BoJ to hike in September and shift to a quarterly pace, keeping its own bond duration under a year (BBG), while a report from the Nikkei frames the whole cycle as compressed into a political window: two rate-wary board appointees arrive in September 2027, so the terminal rate near 1.75% to 2% gets reached by next summer or by contested votes (Nikkei). The same reporting reads July’s joint intervention as carrying an American expectation of continued hikes, one lever among several Washington is expected to pull on Tokyo before the midterms (Nikkei). Regarding the Fed, options traders, meanwhile, are hedging both tails at once: September and December hike bets are being liquidated while buyers accumulate positions that pay if the Fed pivots to cuts by mid-2027, with hike odds for September halved inside a week (BBG). Tonight’s minutes will show how close the July committee came to hiking; the market reads them with a two-sided book for the first time in months (BBG).

Currently, STIR traders price eight basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 33% probability of a rate rise, and 22 basis points cumulatively by December. For the ECB, they price 23 basis points for September, a 92% probability of a rate rise, and 42 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 19 basis points for September, a 77% probability, and 38 basis points cumulatively by December.

In currencies, the dollar index slipped 0.13% to 99.53. The Canadian dollar strengthened after Trump paused the 50% tariffs for three days on a tentative deal, announced less than two hours before they were to take effect, with Carney claiming substantial progress while the hard issues, autos and lumber, stay open (BBG). The won strengthened through a psychologically important threshold for the first time in over ten months, at 1,398.3, up 0.94%, powered by chip-export flows and foreign equity buying even as the Kospi cratered, the day’s starkest divergence (BBG). The yen firmed 0.20% to 159.29 as the haven bid met a carry market that is rotating its funding leg into the Swiss franc, where hedge-fund shorts sit near two-month highs (BBG). The euro traded at 1.1589 and sterling at 1.3545 versus the US dollar.

In commodities, oil rose a fourth straight day against the risk-off tape, WTI up 0.79% to 85.61 and Brent up 0.70% to 91.66, as Trump insisted Hormuz is open while Tehran’s chief negotiator told parliament it stays shut until American sanctions lift. Meanwhile, Iraq approved alternative export routes from September and Chinese shippers are collecting cargoes outside the Gulf (Reuters). The UAE said two Iranian ballistic missiles fell into the sea near its coast, the first known attack on the Gulf state since May, and halted all trade and financial dealings with Tehran (BBG). Gold steadied at 4,338 after its biggest drop in almost a month (BBG). Copper fell 0.58% as the squeeze unwound further (BBG).

In corporate news, Anthropic’s pre-IPO revolving credit facility is set to climb past its roughly 10 billion dollar target (BBG). Unitree Robotics rose more than sixfold on its Shanghai debut, mainland China’s first listed humanoid-robot maker (BBG). Beijing widened the permitted uses of a large consumption fund toward housing-linked spending, the latest incremental step after the weak July batch (BBG).

Data and the day ahead: the UK’s July CPI landed on consensus at the headline but hot in the core. Headline inflation accelerated to 2.9% from 2.6%, matching the survey but running above the Bank of England’s own 2.81% projection; core rose to 2.6% against 2.5% expected, while services inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.6%, in line. The pipeline cooled, with input PPI at 4.9% against 6.5% expected. Overnight, Japan’s core machine orders surged 9.7% on the month against 7.2% expected, reversing June’s 12.4% slump, the strongest signal yet that the capex recovery is real (LS). Australia’s wage index rose 0.8% on the quarter and 3.2% on the year, both in line, with public-sector pay leading for a sixth quarter (LS). New Zealand’s producer input prices jumped 2.9% on the quarter (LS). Still to come: euro-area final HICP at 11:00 CET, Lagarde at the WEF in Geneva mid-afternoon, US EIA inventories at 16:30 CET, then the July FOMC minutes at 20:00 CET and the 16 billion dollar 20-year auction, the day’s two main events. The full preview is in today’s Event Data Preview (LS).

Time Stamp: 19-08-2026, 07:49 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Monday’s US close set the stage: the S&P 500 slipped 0.22% as the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest since 2007, and the overnight session turned that grind into the day’s story (BBG). The US-Iran ceasefire expired without extension, a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and the long end of every major bond market sold off at once, with the market now asking whether the vigilantes force the issue before Wednesday’s Fed minutes and 20-year auction (Reuters).

Asian equities erased early gains and fell hard. The Nikkei dropped 2.32% to 67,680, the sharpest fall in the region, and MSCI’s emerging-market index lost 1.28% to 1,698 (BBG). Korean shares gave up an early advance of more than three per cent to close lower, a reversal the wrap desk read as the AI trade meeting valuation gravity in thin liquidity (BBG). The CSI 300 fell 0.76% to 4,688 after Monday’s across-the-board July data miss left Premier Li Qiang urging officials toward incremental measures, with economists reading Beijing as accelerating existing policy rather than adding stimulus (BBG). US futures followed, the S&P 500 contract down 0.40% at 7,738 and the Nasdaq down 0.75% at 29,871, while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.50% to 6,522 (BBG).

The bond market is the main event. The US ten-year yield rose 2.0bp to 4.74%, and the 30-year added 2.0bp to 5.33%, its highest since June 2007, with the two-year at 4.19% (BBG). The selloff is global and structural: French borrowing costs are at their highest since 2008 with traders building shorts into the autumn budget fight (BBG), German yields trade at 2011 levels, gilts are approaching 6%, and Japan’s ten-year touched its highest since September 1996 before settling at 2.94%, up 2.1bp (Reuters). Three durable forces underpin the price action. Record corporate supply is one, with August investment-grade issuance already at a monthly record (BBG) and AI-linked borrowing equal to roughly a quarter of the Treasury’s net coupon issuance competing directly with governments for duration capital (BBG). The buyer base has shifted from price-insensitive official holders toward return-sensitive private money, a change one strategist tallies at about 90bp of 30-year term premium (BBG). And foreign official demand is softening at the margin, with overseas Treasury holdings down for a third month in four, led by Japan’s intervention-linked drawdown (BBG). Yardeni Research is not pushing the panic button but is watching whether the vigilantes do, framing 4% to 5% as the ten-year’s normal range (BBG), while Citadel Securities argues the long end is charging a credibility premium for policymakers who take the easier route (BBG). Notably, one Japanese bright spot: the five-year JGB auction drew its strongest demand in over a year as money crowds into the belly, though Thursday’s 20-year sale is the harder test (BBG).

Oil pushed the other way against the risk tone. WTI rose 0.7% to 85.07 and Brent 0.5% to 91.28 as the ceasefire lapsed, Washington ruled out an extension, and Tehran told Reuters it will shift to a fully offensive posture, setting a few-weeks deadline for American compliance with the June memorandum as its precondition for talks (Reuters). A cargo vessel was struck by a projectile in the strait with engine-room damage and a crew casualty. Only three vessels transited on Sunday, and the analyst consensus has pushed de-escalation to year-end with a limited traffic-recovery deal as the base case (CNBC). The one diplomatic glimmer is a reported back channel to the Revolutionary Guard, which the American side confirmed in broad terms (Reuters). Copper broke the other direction, down 0.6%, as the first exchange-inventory build in two months and swelling Shanghai stocks suggested the squeeze may be cresting into Wednesday’s contract expiry (BBG). Gold eased 0.56% to 4,391 as the firmer dollar and rising real yields outweighed the war backdrop (BBG).

Currently, STIR traders price nine basis points of tightening for the September Fed meeting, a 36% probability of a rate rise, and 24 basis points cumulatively by December. That is a hawkish shift from Monday, the oil rally doing the work, and it collides with a San Francisco Fed letter arguing policy is currently accommodative against a medium-run natural rate near 1.5% (Frbsf). For the ECB, STIR traders price 24 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, a 94% probability of a rate rise, and 42 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, they price 19 basis points for the September meeting, a 76% probability of a rate rise, and 38 basis points cumulatively by December, with one house now expecting a quarter-point move every three to four months (Reuters). For the RBNZ, they price 23 basis points for the September meeting, a 91% probability of a rate rise. Wednesday’s July minutes will detail the three hike dissents; the SF Fed letter gives hawks an analytical frame (Frbsf).

In currencies, the dollar steadied after Monday’s May lows, with the index at 99.64, the euro at 1.1569, and sterling at 1.3527 (BBG). The yen slipped 0.14% to 159.69 per dollar even as JGB yields climbed toward the levels that invited July’s joint intervention (Reuters). The kiwi lagged at 0.5876, down 0.44%, pressured by the China backdrop and the weakest domestic population growth in over a decade outside the border closure (BBG). India’s central bank has pinned the rupee near its record with dollar sales in every session for over a week, collapsing realised volatility in a throwback to its managed-range era (Business Standard).

In corporate news, Nvidia agreed to backstop the first phase of OpenAI’s Ohio data-centre campus with up to 105 billion dollars over twenty years, denying the arrangement is circular financing (BBG). BHP’s profit rose by almost a third with copper revenue overtaking iron ore for the first time (BBG). Berkshire Hathaway added to Delta and Alphabet as Greg Abel deploys the cash pile (BBG). China ordered some state agencies to strip a government build of Windows ahead of schedule (BBG), nine departments unveiled county-level consumption measures (Xinhua), and Bloomberg’s explainer laid out why cut-price Chinese open-weight models threaten the premium pricing beneath the American AI trade (BBG).

Data and the day ahead: the UK labour report split down the middle. Wage growth beat, with total pay at 4.1% against 4.0% expected and the prior revised higher, ex-bonus pay at 3.5% against 3.4%, and the Bank of England’s own gauge of private regular pay landing exactly on its 2.8% forecast, while the jobs side softened, unemployment holding at 4.9% against the 4.8% consensus, payrolls falling 13k against roughly flat expected and employment growth of 84k missing the 130k consensus (LS).

Sterling barely moved on the release as the two halves offset, leaving tomorrow’s UK CPI to break the tie. Earlier, Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment jumped 6.0% in August to 88.9 from 83.9, still deep in pessimistic territory (LS), and New Zealand’s population grew 0.7% in the year through June, the weakest outside the border closure since 2013 (BBG). Still to come: the German ZEW at 11:00 CET, Lane in Dublin at 13:45 CET, then the US afternoon with housing starts and import prices at 14:30 CET, industrial production at 15:15 CET and pending home sales at 16:00 CET, ahead of Wednesday’s Fed minutes and 20-year auction. The full preview is in today’s Event Data Preview; the Hormuz tape remains the session’s wild card (Reuters).

Time Stamp: 18 August 2026, 08:48 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Wall Street closed Friday mixed, with the S&P 500 down 0.22% as long yields rose and the dollar fell, capping a week in which soft retail sales reduced the chances of a Fed rate hike this year.

Monday’s Asian session extended the theme: the dollar headed for a third day of losses near its May levels, MSCI’s emerging-market currency index was set for a record close, and attention turned to a delayed Chinese data batch and tonight’s expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire (BBG).

Asian equities traded higher in holiday-thinned trade, with South Korean markets closed. The Hang Seng led the region, up 1.79% at 25544.0, with the CSI 300 up 1.26% at 4711.2 ahead of China’s July activity data, which Beijing pushed back to the late afternoon (LS). The Nikkei rose 0.50% to 69030, extending Friday’s 0.63% gain, as investors read Japan’s growth miss as a yen story rather than an equity story (BBG). MSCI’s emerging-market index climbed 1.03% to 1720.5, while Sydney bucked the move, the ASX down 0.46% at 9006. US futures pointed modestly higher, with the S&P 500 contract up 0.14% at 7816.25 and the Nasdaq up 0.40% at 30262.25, as an earnings season running at its strongest growth outside recession rebounds in three decades underpins the record backdrop (BBG). Under the calm, the volatility complex is priced for nothing: options imply sub-1% daily swings into month-end with the VIX at its year low, while dealers sit short gamma and skew is flipping fast, a fragile mix if a headline lands in thin August liquidity (Slashdot).

Japan’s second-quarter GDP was the overnight main event, and it missed: annualised growth of 1.1% against 2.0% expected and a revised 1.8% prior, with the domestic side doing the damage. Private consumption was flat against a 0.4% forecast, business spending fell 1.2% against expectations for a 0.5% rise, and only net exports and inventories kept the quarter positive (BBG). The GDP deflator rose 2.6% compared to 3.2% previously against a 2.3% survey. Swaps still price a 77% probability of a Bank of Japan hike on 18 September, though a hike would now lean on the weak yen rather than the economy as its rationale (BBG). Tokyo’s former top currency official Takehiko Nakao went further, arguing the BOJ should raise rates at every meeting toward a policy rate above 2%, with real rates still negative and 1.2 trillion dollars of reserves available for further intervention (BBG). His predecessor-in-role Mitsuhiro Furusawa told Reuters last week that joint intervention could come again at any time and that the BOJ likely wants the policy rate substantially higher over time, judging from its neutral-rate estimates (Reuters).

Japanese government bonds sold off on the combination, the ten-year yield up 3.3bp at 2.925%, its highest since 1996, on hike speculation and unresolved questions over how the Takaichi government funds its food sales-tax cut (BBG). Treasuries went the other way: the two-year yield fell 1.49bp to 4.15%, and the ten-year eased 1.19bp to 4.68% as Goldman Sachs argued market pricing remains too hawkish, calling a September hike very unlikely after two months of softer jobs and inflation data and pushing its steepener view (BBG). The curve trade faces a live test Wednesday, when the Treasury sells 20-year bonds with the tenor’s yield at 5.2477%, near the highest since its reintroduction, following a 30-year sale at the highest rate in a quarter century (Yahoo). The structural worry runs deeper than the Fed: two-thirds of the swap markets tracked by Bloomberg now price rate hikes, and traders see roughly 400bp of tightening across seven major markets over the next year, eroding the diversification case for bonds (Yahoo). The Bank of England’s chief economist added a mechanism to worry about, warning that central-bank liquidity backstops are quietly subsidising the leveraged basis trades through which hedge funds hold 2.4 trillion dollars of Treasuries (WSJ).

Here is the current market pricing across the central banks: for the Fed, markets price 7.2 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, a 29% probability of a rate rise; 21.7 basis points cumulatively by December (BBG). For the ECB, markets price 22.8 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, a 91% probability of a rate rise; 40 basis points cumulatively by December. For the BoJ, markets price 19.3 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, a 77% probability of a rate rise; 40.5 basis points cumulatively by December. For the RBNZ, markets price 22.5 basis points of tightening for the September meeting, a 90% probability of a rate rise.

In currencies, the dollar index slipped 0.18% to 99.487, near its monthly low. The euro rose 0.15% to 1.1587, approaching a two-month high, sterling gained 0.13% to 1.3555, its firmest since May, and the Australian dollar advanced 0.44% to 0.7115, its strongest since June (Reuters). The yen firmed 0.15% to 159.08 per dollar, a second day of gains, as traders looked through the GDP miss to the fading Fed (Reuters). Westpac’s FX strategy head attributed the greenback’s slide partly to the politics: regular Trump-Warsh dialogue, renewed attempts to remove Governor Cook, and a murky Fed reaction function keep questions about the dollar’s safe-haven properties alive (BBG).

In commodities, copper stole the session, up 1.74% and heading toward a record on the London Metal Exchange as the cash-to-three-month spread blew out to its widest since the 2021 squeeze; the tightness is locational, with metal drawn into the United States ahead of a still-pending tariff decision while LME stocks sit at their lowest since February (BBG). The broader industrial-metals gauge rose 1.01%. Crude drifted, WTI down 0.40% at 82.07, as the market weighed the weekend’s escalation, Israel’s deadliest strikes on Lebanon since June and fresh American economic measures being readied against Iran, against the covert shuttle trade that keeps Gulf barrels flowing at volumes above four million barrels a day (BBG). Gold added 0.39% to 4393.58 (BBG). Bitcoin rose 0.72% to 63467 dollars (Reuters).

On the data run beyond Japan’s GDP: Japanese industrial production was finalised at 1.9% on the month in June, up from the preliminary 1.3%, while the tertiary industry index fell 0.2% against a 1.1% prior (LS). New Zealand retail card spending rose 1.3% in July, reversing June’s revised 1.3% decline, and the services PMI held above breakeven (LS). The UK’s Rightmove house-price index fell 2.0% on the month in August, a second consecutive decline (LS). Singapore’s export run stayed rapid on AI-linked electronics demand, a fourth straight month of outsized growth (LS). Friday’s US backdrop still frames the week: retail sales fell 0.6% in July against a 0.1% rise expected, the sharpest drop in over a year, and University of Michigan sentiment slumped to 51.0 against 55.0 expected (BBG).

In corporate news, Stripe finalised an agreement to buy AI model-router OpenRouter for more than 7 billion dollars, months after the startup raised at a fraction of that value (BBG). Alphabet mandated banks for a debut Australian dollar bond of up to 20 years as hyperscaler debt supply tests investor appetite (BBG). Anthropic is telling prospective investors its second-quarter revenue jumped at least 14-fold from a year earlier (BBG). Beijing-based Z.ai unveiled a coding-focused open-weight model it claims runs close to the US frontier, sharpening the AI price war (BBG).

Ahead today: China’s delayed July activity batch lands in the European morning, with retail sales seen picking up and factory output slowing (BBG). ECB chief economist Lane speaks in Dublin at 11:30 CET, the day’s only major central-bank appearance (BBG). Canada’s July CPI at 14:30 CET is the session’s most-watched release, with an energy-driven acceleration in the headline expected (BBG). The US calendar brings Empire State manufacturing at 14:30 CET, the NAHB housing index at 16:00 CET and TIC flows at 22:00 CET, while the US-Iran ceasefire expires with talks stalled and Hormuz traffic at a trickle (BBG). The Fed’s July minutes on Wednesday will detail the three dissents in favour of a quarter-point rise, and Jackson Hole follows on 27-29 August (BBG).

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Please note that I am on a business trip for the rest of the week, so there will be no Morning Brief.

The war premium is coming out of everything at once. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there is a chance of a deal with Iran today or tomorrow to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the American military declared the southern route free and open after assisting more than a thousand vessels through, and mediators say a document is close to being finalised, with Pakistan brokering between Iran and Oman and Washington involved indirectly (CNBC). Crude extended its slide, WTI down 1.0% at 75.03 dollars and Brent down 0.8% at 78.73 after Tuesday’s slump, and global equities are at records: the S&P 500 and the Dow both closed at all-time highs on Tuesday, and futures point higher again with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq up 0.4%. The one caution comes from IG’s Tony Sycamore: with this much optimism priced and last week’s false dawn fresh, the balance of risks in oil is skewing back to the upside (CNBC).

Asia joined in force. The Nikkei surged 3.7% to 66,250, the session’s standout and Australian shares set another record with the ASX up 0.9%. Chinese mainland shares rose 1.6% on the CSI 300 despite a services survey that missed badly, Hong Kong gained 0.4%, and MSCI’s emerging-market gauge rose 0.3%. The chip complex led throughout, with SK Hynix climbing in Seoul on a shareholder-return story and a US chips gauge having posted its strongest four-day gain since 2020 (BBG).

Regarding central banks, Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid said tighter policy is needed to return inflation to 2% and that he does not see the current stance as restrictive, adding that the Fed is influencing the long end of the curve and that the balance sheet’s duration needs addressing (BBG). Yet the market moved the other way on the oil slide with 2-year bond yields falling. The STIR market now assigns a 56% probability to a September rate rise, pricing 14 basis points for that meeting and 31 cumulatively by December. In Tokyo, the June minutes showed members debating mounting price risks even as they hiked, with two calling for faster moves towards neutral and one arguing that inflation pressure would outlast the conflict because alternative supply carries higher shipping and storage costs (Reuters). Wages backed them up: same-sample cash earnings jumped 4.4% against 3.1% expected (BBG). The market now assigns a 58% probability to a September Bank of Japan rise, pricing 14.5 basis points for that meeting. The two curves have crossed, with the Fed’s September odds fading as the BoJ’s firm. Against that, Jiji reports Prime Minister Takaichi asked the central bank to buy more bonds when needed, an explicit counterweight to both the minutes and the American pressure for faster tightening (Reuters). India’s central bank held at 5.25% as expected (BBG).

In currencies, USDJPY was only a little changed at 157.64, with the intervention story evolving. Bloomberg profiles Bessent running the campaign like the macro trader he was, deliberately showing his notepad, funding through euros and promoting the Fed’s repo facility, and ING reads the Argentina and Japan episodes together as a Treasury now willing to use the Exchange Stabilisation Fund for geopolitical objectives (BBG). The won led Asia higher, USDKRW down 0.45% at 1,423.48, and NZDUSD eased 0.37% to 0.5872 after the weaker labour market data.

Government bonds rallied on the oil move and the rate repricing. The US ten-year bond yield fell 1.6 basis points to 4.60% and the thirty-year 2.5 basis points to 5.15%, and bond-market volatility collapsed, our proxy falling, as the hedging demand that had built in Treasury options unwound. That positioning was the story of the week: traders had spent millions on puts targeting ten-year yields near 5% and thirty-year yields at 5.4%, with TD arguing the Fed lost the market’s confidence after the last meeting (BBG). The Japanese ten-year yield eased 5.4 basis points to 2.81% even with the hawkish minutes, and the two-year slipped 0.9 basis points to 1.57%.

In commodities, the split inverted: gold surged 2.1% to 4,162.39 dollars, its move driven by rates rather than war risk, as the falling oil price curbs the case for further tightening and the dollar softens (BBG). Copper gained 0.4% and the ex-energy commodity gauge 0.5%, while the broad index fell with crude. Bitcoin was flat at 64,313 dollars.

On the data front, New Zealand’s unemployment rate reached an eleven-year high at 5.6% against 5.4% expected, but employment rose 0.5% against 0.1% and annual wage inflation accelerated for the first time in three years. As a result, the two-year yield fell 6 basis points while the market still assigns a 92% probability to a September rate rise (BBG).

Japan’s labour cash earnings rose 3.4% as expected, with the same-base detail stronger, and its services survey was revised down to 51.2.

Australia’s services reading went the other way, revised up to 53.6. China’s RatingDog services index was the miss of the session at 50.4 against 53.7 expected, taking the composite to 50.8 from 53.6, with both halves of the private survey now barely above stagnation. New Zealand commodity prices fell 3.9% on the month. Yesterday afternoon’s American JOLTS report showed openings little changed at 7.4 million with the quits rate steady at 2.0%. (Bls).

On the corporate tape, the after-hours split both ways: Nvidia advanced after Elon Musk touted its Vera Rubin chips, while AMD dropped on an underwhelming sales outlook and SpaceX fell after projecting higher-than-expected spending on its artificial-intelligence business, on the eve of a share unlock of as much as 116 billion dollars next month (BBG). The FCC is drafting a ban on imports of some Chinese data-centre components, and India expanded its Life Insurance Corp share sale to 3.3 billion dollars on oversubscription (BBG).

Ahead today: the American afternoon carries ADP private payrolls at 14:15 CET, the final services surveys and the ISM services index at 16:00 CET, the first read on the service economy since the manufacturing surge, plus a possible Hormuz announcement at any hour, which is the session’s binary. Fed Governor Cook and San Francisco’s Daly speak after the European close. The week still builds to Friday’s payrolls, and Thursday’s thirty-year auction in Tokyo is the test of whether the fiscal argument between the government, the central bank and Washington is priced.

Time Stamp: 5 August 2026, 07:59 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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President Trump told reporters that negotiations with Iran were underway at the request of Tehran and the Gulf states and called it a last chance to sign a good document, but Iran’s foreign ministry said no talks were taking place or scheduled and that its only discussions were with Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters). A cargo vessel reported being hit by an unknown projectile near the strait overnight, and six vessels transited on Monday, compared with seven the day before. Explosions were reported in Kuwait as Iran targeted an American military base (Jpost), and analysts at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies argue Tehran reads the repeated cancellation of strike threats as weakness (BBG). Crude has taken back some of yesterday’s sharp drop, Brent up 1.6% at 85.09 dollars and WTI up 1.2% at 81.27, after Brent shed roughly 7% on Monday. American equity futures are nonetheless firmer, the Nasdaq up 0.4% and the S&P 500 up 0.2%. That extends Monday’s close-to-close gains, when the S&P 500 rose 0.63%, the Nasdaq 0.59% and the Dow 0.49% to a record, and a gauge of megacaps posted its best day since March. Global equities are holding just below an all-time high on the broadest measure (BBG).

Asian equities did not follow. Korean shares reversed an early gain to fall again, the Kospi 200 down 2.0%, and the regional semiconductor complex stayed under pressure in what is now a third session of violent swings around the artificial-intelligence trade rather than a settling. Japanese shares fell, the Nikkei down 0.4%, as the currency’s gains faded and the bond auction soured. Hong Kong slipped 0.5% and MSCI’s emerging-market gauge fell 0.6%. Against that, Australia was the standout, the ASX up 1.3% after firmer domestic data, and Chinese mainland shares recovered with the CSI 300 up 1.1%.

Yesterday’s ISM release complicated the Fed’s job to keep prices stable. The American manufacturing survey landed well above expectations in July, the fastest expansion in more than four years, with production jumping and the employment gauge expanding for the first time in thirty-three months. The prices component barely eased, a twenty-second consecutive month in which roughly three-quarters of firms reported paying more, and the survey commentary was unusually blunt, one manager describing pricing volatility and lead times as arguably worse than the pandemic era (CNBC).

Markets now price 16.0 basis points of tightening for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, about a 64% chance of a move, and 35.1 basis points cumulatively by December. In Korea, inflation slowed to 2.8% against a 3.0% consensus, but core edged up to 2.6%, and the central bank said cost shocks are still feeding through, which leaves an August back-to-back rise a matter of choice rather than necessity (BBG). The Bank of Japan curve carries 11.5 basis points by September, roughly a 46% chance.

In currencies, the yen gave back ground, dollar-yen up 0.27% at 157.60 after four days of gains. The market has converged on the level Japan’s April and May operations failed to break as the test of whether last week’s coordinated action changed anything: dollar-yen is below its two-hundred-day average for the first time since October, and net short yen positions among asset managers and leveraged funds are at their highest since 2024, so a break would risk an accelerated squeeze (BBG). Bank of America argues the authorities are determined to break the level and that failing would tell the market they have exhausted their options, while Citigroup expects the strength to prove short-lived and the pair to hold its recent range. The dollar was firmer elsewhere, the index up 0.12% at 100.012, with sterling down 0.07% at 1.3424 and the euro barely changed at 1.1508. The Korean won was steady at 1429.13 despite the equity fall.

Government bonds edged lower on both sides of the Pacific. The American ten-year yield rose 1.9 basis points to 4.69% and the two-year 1.7 basis points to 4.25% as the manufacturing survey strengthened the case for a September move. The Japanese ten-year rose 2.5 basis points to 2.86% after an auction that drew its weakest demand since May last year, with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.56 against 3.13 at the previous sale and a twelve-month average of 3.3, and the tail widening to 0.46 from 0.2 (BBG). Investors are pressing the Bank of Japan on whether faster rate rises are the price of continued currency support. German ten-year yields went the other way, easing 5.4 basis points to 3.15%. The US Treasury also raised its third-quarter borrowing estimate to 739 billion dollars, which matters more than usual with the thirty-year having finished July at a nineteen-year high (Reuters).

In commodities, Gold rose 0.18% to 4061.57 dollars as the Iran picture muddied again, copper gained 1.1% and the industrial metals index 1.0%, while implied volatility on crude collapsed 5.8 percentage points as the market moved past the weekend’s escalation scare. Iron ore went the other way entirely, touching its lowest since late June 2025 in Singapore, on seasonally weaker Chinese demand, narrowing steel-mill margins and the absence of new stimulus (BBG). Bitcoin was steady, up 0.15% at 63835.99 dollars.

On the data front, Korean consumer prices rose 2.8% in the year to July, below the 3.0% consensus and down from 3.2%, though core rose to 2.6%. Australian household spending rose 0.8% on the month against a 0.2% consensus, with the annual rate at 6.0% against 5.3% expected, and ANZ job advertisements rose 0.8% in July after a fall revised to 0.1% (BBG). Japan’s monetary base fell 13.8% year on year against an expected 13.0% decline, with the end-of-period level at 557.6 trillion yen.

On the corporate tape, HSBC delivered the strongest European bank print of the season, second-quarter pre-tax profit up 60% to 10.1 billion dollars on revenue of 19.1 billion against a company-compiled consensus of 18.6 billion, with wealth revenues up 22%. It announced a buyback of up to $ 1 billion and lifted its banking net interest income guidance for the year to at least $ 46 billion (FT). Palantir rose in extended trading after raising its forecasts, while Amazon fell after its chairman disclosed plans to sell shares, having reached a 3 trillion dollar market value on Monday (BBG).

Ahead today: the US June trade balance at 14:30 CET, where consensus looks for a deficit of 73.0 billion dollars against 77.6 billion previously. At 16:00 CET we get durable goods orders, factory orders, and the JOLTS job openings survey all together. Consensus for JOLTS is 7.45 million against a prior of 7.594 million. As usual, we will keep a close eye on the quits rate, as this correlates well with wages.

Canada returns from the Civic Holiday with the June merchandise trade balance at 14:30 CET and a July manufacturing survey at 15:30 CET that consensus expects to fall by nearly three points to the edge of contraction. SpaceX reports its first results as a public company, alongside AMD, Caterpillar, Toyota, Pfizer and Merck. The print also sets up one of the largest share unlocks on record, with as much as $116 billion of stock becoming eligible for sale next month, and the week builds to Friday’s payrolls (BBG).

Time Stamp: 4 August 2026, 07:23 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Crude has given up a large slice of its war premium at the start of the week after President Trump called off an imminent attack on Iran at the urging of Gulf states and pointed to talks beginning today on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (WSJ). WTI is down 6.1% at 79.5 dollars, and Brent down 5.4% at 83.17, and the relief has spread straight into equity futures and bonds.

Qatari mediators say Iranian diplomats reacted positively to their proposal and that a compromise may be near (BBG). US futures are firmer, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, the Nasdaq up 0.8% and the Russell 2000 up 0.7%, and European futures follow, the DAX up 1.0% and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.8%. That builds on Friday’s cash close, where the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 0.6% as Amazon’s results lifted the whole AI complex (BBG).

Asian equities did not share the mood. Korean stocks led the region lower as chipmakers gave back a large part of an extraordinary week, with the Kospi 200 down 4.5% and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both falling around nine per cent after rallies that had reached 27% and 30% by Friday (BBG). Foreign investors, who bought a record amount of Korean stock on Friday, drove the reversal. Chinese equities fell too, the CSI 300 down 1.1% after a weak factory survey, while Hong Kong was only a little changed. Japanese cash equities are also trading lower. Set against that, MSCI’s emerging-market gauge rose 0.8%.

Regarding central banks, Bloomberg reported that Chairman Kevin Warsh has floated cutting the number of Federal Reserve policy meetings to six a year, plus two devoted to a substantive topic, and has already raised the prospect of fewer press conferences and a shorter statement (BBG). That lands badly with a market still digesting a press conference at which he gave no steer at all despite three of twelve members voting to hike (Yahoo). The three dissenters made their case on Friday, with Cleveland’s Beth Hammack warning that the longer high inflation persists the costlier it becomes to remove, Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari drawing a parallel with the 1970s, and Dallas’ Lorie Logan arguing inflation is settling in the mid-twos and that modest action now would reduce the need for sharper action later (Washingtonpost). Richmond’s Tom Barkin called it a close call whether rates are high enough, and pointed to business-to-business price increases of three to four per cent that are sticking (WSJ). Markets price 16.8 basis points of tightening for the September meeting and 34.5 basis points cumulatively by December. In Britain, Chief Economist Huw Pill, who voted against the Bank of England’s 6-3 hold, warned of slow-moving but more insidious second-round effects from the energy shock, while noting that inflation expectations have not become substantially deanchored (Reuters). The People’s Bank of China pledged over the weekend to adjust policy tools in a timely manner and keep liquidity ample (Reuters).

In currencies, the yen is the whole story. Dollar-yen is down 0.6% at 156.42 after the first joint intervention by Japan and the United States in fifteen years, and traders were left guessing this morning whether the authorities were back in the market or whether the move was algorithmic (BBG). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention and called for the Federal Reserve’s FIMA repo facility to be upsized, a mechanism that lets Japan raise dollars against its Treasury holdings instead of selling them (Reuters). The detail that matters for the rest of the market is how it was funded: strategists believe the New York Fed sold euros rather than dollars to buy yen on the Treasury’s behalf, keeping Washington’s strong-dollar policy intact (BBG). The dollar gauges softened accordingly, the Bloomberg dollar index down 0.2% and the DXY down 0.2%, while the Korean won firmed with dollar-won down 0.7% despite the equity rout. Sterling is a touch lower at 1.3474 and the euro marginally firmer at 1.1535.

Government bonds rallied on the oil move. The US ten-year yield sits at 4.69% and the thirty-year at 5.23%, both easing back after a month in which the long end did the damage, with the thirty-year finishing July at a nineteen-year high. Strategists describe the post-meeting move as a twist steepener, front-end yields falling while the long end rose, and read it as the market doubting the Federal Reserve’s resolve rather than welcoming the hold (Reuters). Japanese bonds went the other way, with the ten-year yield at 2.83% and the two-year at 1.56%, its highest in three decades, as the short end prices a greater chance of an early Bank of Japan move. The Japanese ten-year future fell 0.3%. Australian and Chinese ten-year futures were marginally lower.

In commodities beyond crude, gold rose 0.3% to 4,058 dollars, after US President Donald Trump said fresh negotiations with Iran would begin later on Monday, raising hopes for a breakthrough in the months-long conflict that would ease energy-driven inflation, which could potentially lead to lower yields and benefit gold. (BBG). Copper gained 1.1% and industrial metals 0.4%, while the broad commodity index fell 1.5% on the energy weighting alone. OPEC and its partners agreed on Sunday to raise production quotas again next month, completing the theoretical unwind of the 2023 cuts and leaving room to add real barrels once Gulf shipping normalises (Yahoo). Bitcoin did not join the risk rally, falling 1.1% to 62,721 dollars, with ether down 1.5%.

The overnight data run was mixed, and China was the disappointment. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in July from 51.7, missing the 52.0 consensus and marking a four-month low. Japan’s final manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.5 from 54.7 but stays comfortably expansionary, and Australia’s was revised up to 52.0 from 51.7. Australia’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge jumped 1.0% on the month after a 0.4% fall and rose to 4.0% year on year from 3.9%, keeping it above the Reserve Bank’s target band, and it arrives alongside data showing house prices fell 0.7% in July, the steepest run of declines since December 2022 (BBG). New Zealand building permits fell 3.6% on the month, with the prior revised down to a 4.9% fall.

On the corporate tape, Friday’s session set the tone that Asia is now testing. Amazon rose 15% on cloud revenue growth of 37%, the fastest since 2021, while Apple fell 7.4%, its worst day since April 2025, after component shortages hit its guidance, and the beat rate across the S&P 500 companies reported so far is the best in five years (BBG). Alibaba gained in Hong Kong after releasing its latest flagship artificial-intelligence model, and China’s DeepSeek rolled out a public beta interface for its own model on Friday (BBG).

In Britain, Chancellor John Healey has set the budget for 28 October and told cabinet colleagues that new announcements must be funded from existing budgets, which is the reassurance gilts wanted from a government elevating a raft of unfunded pledges (Guardian).

Ahead today: Swiss inflation, where consensus looks for a slowdown to 0.4%, and the final euro-area manufacturing PMIs, with the US ISM manufacturing survey this afternoon. The week builds to Friday’s US payrolls, where economists expect a gain of about 85k after June’s disappointing 57k and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, preceded by job openings tomorrow, ADP on Wednesday and claims on Thursday (BBG).

Time Stamp: 3 August 2026, 07:37 CET

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The Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 1.00% on Friday and used the forecasts, rather than the rate, to signal that the next move is coming (BBG). The vote was eight to one, with Hajime Takata calling for a back-to-back increase (Reuters). The Quarterly Outlook Report raised the growth projection for the current fiscal year and trimmed the core inflation path, and the Board upgraded its assessment of risks to the economy from skewed to the downside to broadly balanced, while saying risks to prices remain skewed to the upside (BBG). The Bank added that consumer price inflation is likely to move clearly above 2% in the second half of this fiscal year (Reuters).

In equities, the Nikkei rose 4.8% to 64,700, and the CSI 300 gained 1.2%, while MSCI’s emerging-market index rose 2.4% (BBG). Korean shares led, jumping a record 15% as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both climbed more than 23% (BBG).

Asian bonds were quieter. The Japanese ten-year yield was little changed at 2.81% and the Chinese ten-year held at 1.71% (BBG).

Japanese authorities are believed to have intervened in New York hours on Thursday, sending the currency as much as 3.3% higher against the dollar in its biggest intraday gain since December 2023 (BBG). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declined to confirm the operation, saying only that authorities would remain on high alert and respond as appropriate, while the top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, said Japan had received support from the United States that goes beyond simply moral support (BBG). There is speculation that Seoul sold dollars alongside Tokyo, which would make it a rare joint operation (Straitstimes) (BBG). Washington has been unusually explicit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business that the yen is very undervalued and has substantially overshot its equilibrium price, and that he is not concerned about it strengthening (LS). Nikkei reported that the government and the Bank of Japan had intervened (LS). Some of the move has since unwound through the Asian session overnight (BBG). The yen weakened 0.7% to 160.68 against the US dollar and the won gave back ground, with the dollar 0.9% higher at 1,436.47 against it (BBG). The political backdrop is part of what the currency is trading. Prime Minister Takaichi’s programme for a more assertive Japan is under strain as the yen sinks and approval ratings fall, which is the pressure the Bank is being asked to normalise into (BBG).

Market pricing now carries most of a further Japanese increase by the autumn. The implied policy rate reaches 1.18% at the 30 October meeting and 1.25% by December, so roughly a quarter point of tightening is in the curve by year-end (BBG). The September meeting is priced at about a third of a move.

In the United States, attention has shifted from the decision to the chair. Kevin Warsh has hinted at a new inflation framework, which has unsettled investors who read his market-driven approach as weakening the policy anchor (BBG) (BBG). Wall Street’s record short position in fed funds unwound after rates were held (BBG). Treasuries were little moved overnight, with the ten-year yield at 4.65% and the thirty-year at 5.19% (BBG). The dollar index rose 0.4% to 100.22 (BBG).

The data were mixed and the surprises sat in Asia. Tokyo consumer prices rose 2.0% on the year in July against 1.8% expected and 1.7% previously, and the measure excluding fresh food rose 1.9% against 1.8% expected (BBG). Japanese retail sales fell 4.1% on the month against a 1.6% decline expected, and industrial production rose 1.3% against 1.0% expected. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.2 from 50.3, below the 50.1 expected and back into contraction, and the non-manufacturing gauge also slipped below the expansion line (WSJ). The People’s Bank of China left its daily reference rate for the yuan largely unchanged despite the overnight gains in the currency, which analysts read as an attempt to temper the move (BBG).

In geopolitics, President Trump said a historic agreement had been reached for the complete disarmament of Hamas, and American officials described an implementation plan that would be put into motion over the coming weeks, while cautioning that the deal is conditional and that Israel remains sceptical (LS). Iran was reported to have urged Hamas to delay. The Iranian army separately said it had targeted American military facilities at Kuwait’s Ahmed Al Jaber air base, so the two tracks of the conflict are moving in opposite directions at once (BBG) (Reuters).

Commodities were softer. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $87.67 a barrel, and WTI fell 2.2% to $81.75, a third session of decline (BBG). Gold eased 0.5% to $4,080.85 an ounce, holding most of the gain it took from the intervention-driven fall in the dollar (BBG). Copper rose 0.7% and is set for a monthly gain on a tightening supply outlook (BBG).

In company news, Amazon rose after a fifth straight quarter of cloud sales growth, while Apple fell after warning that supply constraints will increase significantly in the September quarter (BBG) (WSJ). SoftBank rose as much as 15%, hitting its daily limit. Sony raised its profit outlook. Citadel bought the equity portfolio of Situational Awareness, the fund run by the former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, after heavy losses in the artificial-intelligence selloff (WSJ) (BBG). Anthropic disclosed that its models breached three organisations during cybersecurity testing that went awry.

Ahead today: the euro-area flash inflation estimate for July at 11:00 CET, with the headline expected at 2.9% and the core rate at 2.4%, followed by the US employment cost index for the second quarter at 14:30 CET and the final University of Michigan survey at 16:00 CET. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at 13:15 CET, his first appearance since voting in the minority for an increase on Thursday (LS).

Time Stamp: 31 July 2026, 07:23 CET

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The Federal Reserve held at 3.50 to 3.75% on a 9-3 vote, and the bond market spent the rest of the session repricing what that means. Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissented for a quarter-point rise, one more than the research consensus expected, while the statement was otherwise unchanged from June (BBG). The reaction concentrated in the press conference: the chair declined to explain the hold or commit to acting if inflation stays high, argued that higher long-term market rates showed markets doing the Fed’s work, and within hours JPMorgan had pulled its hike call forward from the second half of 2027 to this December (BBG). One strategist commented the market is calling his bluff, and a companion read of the rout put it as a warning that tough talk is not enough (BBG).

As a result, two-year yields fell on relief while the thirty-year yield surged to its highest since 2007 (BBG) (CNBC).

The pressure spilt over to Asia, with thirty-year bond prices in Australia, New Zealand and Japan falling in sympathy (BBG). Apollo’s Torsten Slok said there is very little to hang your head on in these markets and that the Fed’s abandonment of guidance is fuelling historic bond-market volatility (BBG). Jeffrey Gundlach said: the front end thinks the Fed is taking its time, and the long end is the bond market vigilantes demanding action to match the rhetoric (CNBC). The STIR markets now put roughly 67% on a September hike and 35bps by December (BBG). Treasury futures extended the move overnight, down 0.5%. The Japanese ten-year yield was little changed at 2.81% before the Bank of Japan, a move of 0.1 basis point, while super-long Japanese yields climbed with their American counterparts (BBG). The week’s two-year sale drew demand below its twelve-month average (BBG), and the latest weekly data showed foreign investors selling Japanese bonds at roughly eight times the prior week’s pace. (BBG).

Asian stocks traded lower and choppy, with the Fed leaving markets uncertain on rates (Reuters). Chinese shares fell 2.0%, the Nikkei lost 1.4%, Australia fell 1.1%, and the emerging-market index eased 0.4%, while Korea whipsawed, rising as much as 5.5% before fading, after Samsung’s chip unit beat estimates and the authorities capped retail access to leveraged ETFs following Wednesday’s emergency meeting (BBG). The Kospi is down 33% in July, its worst month on record, and the regional rotation ran out of technology and into real estate and energy shares (BBG). One Seoul manager put the constraint plainly: there are no buyers in the market (BBG).

In currencies, the dollar index was little changed after softening on the decision; the yen sits at 163.48 against the US dollar ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan meeting, and the kiwi firmed against the US Dollar 0.2% on the business-confidence surge. The Korean won firmed 0.3% even as the equity unwind continued, still the clearest sign the stress is contained in the stock market.

Commodities turned through the morning. WTI, 0.2% lower at the morning capture, moved back higher as the session progressed (BBG), the earlier dip having followed the United States struck dozens of Iranian targets overnight, command centres, missile and drone facilities and maritime capabilities among them, in response to Tuesday’s attack on US forces in Jordan, with the Hormuz-passage talks dead and the conflict back in its escalation phase (WSJ). The slip had come as tankers continued to ply the conflict zones (Reuters), and the deadlock over the strait is reported to be settling in for months rather than weeks (BBG). Gold eased 0.5% to 4,045.24 dollars as real yields rose, copper added 0.5% as the Fed’s pause eased demand concerns across base metals (BBG), and Bitcoin gained 0.7%.

The overnight data run belonged to the South Pacific. Australian building approvals rose 7.2% in June against expectations of a 0.5% fall and a survey range topping out at 3.0%, while second-quarter import prices jumped 5.7% against a flat consensus, the energy shock arriving in the trade data two days after the CPI undershoot argued the other way. New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence surged to 56.1 from 36.6. Japan’s consumer confidence rose to 34.9 against a 34.2 consensus and 33.8 previously, and the government cut its fiscal-year growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3% on oil while raising its inflation view, the same morning its central bank is reported to be considering a growth upgrade (BBG), while the prime minister pressed ahead with a temporary sales-tax cut on food (Channelnewsasia).

Central banks own the day. The Bank of England decides at 13:00 CET, with every surveyed economist expecting a hold at 3.75%, a 7-2 vote anticipated with Pill and Greene dissenting and Mann the risk of a third, plus a full forecast round and the annual quantitative-tightening review, which one bank estimates has added 15 to 25 basis points to gilt yields (LS). The scenario framing from May is the live question, with one house arguing the economy sits in the middle scenario, a hold with a tightening bias on a partially open Hormuz (LS). In the euro area, the ECB’s wage tracker showed negotiated pay slowing to 2.6% this year with no second-round signs, Lagarde’s own framing, yet the market assigns a 93% probability to a September rate rise regardless (WSJ). In Australia, the market assigns only a 3.5% chance of a hike for the RBA in August after Hunter’s balanced overnight remarks (BBG).

The corporate tape split the AI trade in two after the close. Microsoft rose 8% in late trading on accelerating cloud growth, a jump in paid Copilot users and a lower capital-spending forecast for the calendar year, while Meta fell around 10% as free cash flow collapsed, the spending floor rose and third-quarter guidance disappointed (WSJ). SK Hynix, at the centre of the Korean rout, told investors it has no plans to announce new production facilities, the same discipline the market rewarded in Redmond hours later (Nikkei Asia). The Nasdaq entered a technical correction on Wednesday before its futures steadied (BBG). Elsewhere on the tape, Qualcomm gave a weak profit forecast on component shortages and rising costs, Arm’s sales outlook underwhelmed, and Starbucks raised its annual guidance after a beat (BBG). Among Europe’s morning reporters, BMW’s carmaking profit beat expectations, Societe Generale raised its profitability target and announced a €1.5 billion buyback, Sanofi beat and nudged its guidance higher, BBVA and ING topped estimates, and Schneider Electric raised its sales and profit guidance, while AB InBev’s volume growth narrowly missed and Adidas missed (BBG).

Ahead today: the Bank of England at 13:00 CET, with the vote count, the scenario choice and the quantitative-tightening review the three things that can move September pricing, which now carries just under a 60% probability of a hike. At 14:30 CET, the United States releases second-quarter GDP and June core PCE, the first inflation data the Fed’s dissenters can use, with the advance GDP range unusually wide on an AI-import distortion. Euro-area flash GDP and the German and Spanish inflation prints fill the morning. Apple and Amazon report after the American close into the market’s new capex scoring, and the Bank of Japan concludes tomorrow with the government and central bank telling opposite stories about the same economy.

Time Stamp: 30 July 2026, 08:15 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Asian equities fell for a second session as the unwind in memory shares turned violent, though the worst of it was pared as the session wore on. Korea took the damage, with the Kospi 200 down 6.31 per cent after recovering from a far steeper intraday fall, and the trigger was a memory maker that beat on almost every operational measure and still dropped sharply, because the record capital spending plan attached to those results landed at the exact moment investors began asking whether artificial-intelligence spending will earn a return (BBG).

One bank’s Japan strategist argued the correction has lowered the bar for earnings to impress and that the story is not broken, but pointed out that hedge fund gross and net exposure to Japan sits above the 98th percentile of its five-year range, which is why the bank expects volatility to persist in the near term (BBG). Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have demanded additional collateral from hedge funds whose books are concentrated in the sector, calls largely triggered automatically by the volatility, after a build-up in gross leverage over the first five months of the year that Goldman describes as the largest cumulative increase since it began tracking the data in 2016. Long-short and multi-strategy funds both had their worst single day since the market swings of 2020 (FT).

The regional picture was uneven. MSCI’s emerging market index dropped 1.59 per cent, yet the Nikkei pared most of its losses to close 0.40 per cent lower; Hong Kong rose 1.46 per cent; mainland Chinese shares gained 0.73 per cent; and Australia added 1 per cent. American index futures steadied as the European morning wore on, with the Nasdaq little changed and the S&P 500 marginally higher. Washington moved overnight to bar imports of new Chinese humanoid and quadruped robots and connected power inverters, an order the Federal Communications Commission framed as a matter of supply-chain and cybersecurity risk to the American artificial-intelligence buildout. (Reuters).

Central banks dominate the day, and the Federal Reserve decision at 20:00 CET is the least predictable in years. Markets price a 29.4 per cent chance of a quarter-point increase at a meeting most economists expect to pass without one, and positioning in federal funds futures settling after the decision has reached an all-time high, surpassing the record set in October 2024 (BBG). The argument for moving has grown louder, with Citadel Securities switching its base case to an increase and PGIM warning the market is underestimating the risk, while a rates strategist at Bank of America said the market is pricing a very real risk of a rise (BBG). Against that, Meredith Whitney expects a hold paired with hawkish language, arguing the chair’s bias is to wait and be right (BBG). The Bank of England, meanwhile, has opened a supervisory review of prime brokerage in London, concerned that exposures to a small number of Asian artificial-intelligence companies have become dangerously concentrated as the business boomed, and that some clients may be using options to lever those bets further (FT).

In currencies, the dollar softened marginally, with the Bloomberg dollar index down 0.08 per cent. The yen firmed to 163.55 against the US dollar, a gain of 0.18 per cent, but stays close to the level market participants associate with official action after the finance minister’s warning about excessive volatility, and overnight index swaps show about a 29 per cent chance of a Bank of Japan increase by September and around 78 per cent by October (BBG). The Australian dollar fell 0.29 per cent on its inflation undershoot, and the Korean won firmed 0.37 per cent even as the local equity market fell.

Government bonds were quiet by comparison. The Japanese ten-year yield sits at 2.761 per cent, down two basis points, with the futures contract little changed, in a market where the country’s largest pension fund has just hired active domestic bond managers for the first time in five years after losing 5.1 per cent on its domestic debt book, a decision it took amid a drop in bond prices punctuated by bouts of volatility (BBG). The US ten-year yield was little changed at 4.6083 per cent and the two-year at 4.2871 per cent.

WTI rose 3.49 per cent after Iran fired ballistic missiles at American forces without prior provocation, all of which were intercepted, prompting American and Saudi strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq (BBG). Few vessels are transiting the Strait of Hormuz with transponders on; Iranian state media claimed three tankers were halted, and Tehran has rejected the Omani proposal for shared control of the waterway in favour of one giving it more authority (WSJ). The Houthis declared a blockade last week on vessels calling at Saudi ports, and China has since held direct talks with the movement to secure safe passage for its tankers, clearing each vessel individually as Beijing tries to keep Saudi crude moving from Yanbu to replace barrels stranded by the closure of Hormuz. Two supertankers have already turned back out of the Gulf of Aden (Reuters). Grains added 0.52 per cent as attacks on Black Sea shipping threatened exports from two of the largest wheat suppliers, with analysts estimating several million tonnes less grain will ship this quarter (BBG). The Senate advanced the Russian energy sanctions bill, which would let the president impose tariffs on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, though it still needs the House, which does not sit again until September (Reuters). Gold rose 0.35 per cent to 4,043.79 dollars, and Bitcoin gained 0.79 per cent.

The overnight data run belonged to Australia. Underlying inflation undershot on both measures, with the trimmed mean up 0.8 per cent on the quarter against 0.9 per cent expected and 3.6 per cent on the year against 3.7 per cent, while headline prices rose 0.6 per cent on the quarter after 1.4 per cent previously and the monthly series slowed to 3.8 per cent from 4.0 per cent (BBG). Tradables inflation ran at 1.5 per cent on the year against 4.9 per cent for non-tradables, so the relief came from imported goods and a temporary fuel excise cut while domestic services pressure persisted. Traders cut the odds of another increase this year to about half from more than ninety per cent, and the August meeting itself now carries just 4.0 per cent. Separately, a Japanese labour ministry panel recommended raising the minimum wage by 4.9 per cent, the second-largest rise on record in absolute terms, supporting the central bank’s case that pay gains are broadening (BBG).

European bank earnings led the corporate tape. UBS announced a three-billion-dollar buyback running through mid-2027, and Standard Chartered announced a one-billion-dollar programme alongside second-quarter earnings that beat expectations, while Deutsche Bank’s fixed-income trading revenue jumped and outperformed most American peers, and Porsche reaffirmed full-year guidance after first-half profitability improved.

In Britain, the new prime minister meets opposition leaders today to begin cross-party talks on social care reform, with no indication yet of how the changes would be funded, a week after taking office and against a backdrop of existing fiscal questions (BBG).

Ahead today: the Federal Reserve decides at 20:00 CET with no projections and no dot plot, so the signal will come from the dissents and the chair’s language rather than any forecast. The target range currently stands at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent.

Microsoft and Meta report after the American close, with Apple and Amazon following tomorrow.

Time Stamp: 29 July 2026, 08:40 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Monday closed with the S&P 500 barely changed as artificial-intelligence anxiety offset a sharp decline in crude, and the overnight session resolved that stand-off decisively in favour of the anxiety. A global selloff in semiconductors deepened through Asian trade, driven by two separate triggers hitting the same crowded position: a report that a Chinese state-backed company has begun mass producing immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines, and Nvidia’s latest round of more than 750 billion dollars of infrastructure deals, which revived questions about how much artificial-intelligence demand is being funded in a circle (BBG). A Bloomberg gauge of Asian semiconductor shares fell as much as 7.5 per cent, the most since early March (BBG).

Asian cash equities took the full force of it. The Nikkei fell 4.20 per cent, the worst among the major benchmarks, and the CSI 300 lost 2.77 per cent, dragging MSCI’s emerging-market gauge down 2.59 per cent due to its heavy regional technology weighting. South Korea was worse still, with the market forced into a trading halt as the memory names were sold, and the Kospi is now more than 30 per cent below its peak (BBG).

The composition carried a warning that the index level does not: Japanese chip equipment makers fell hard, while their mainland-listed competitors rose on the very same report (BBG). One strategist reads the move as carrying a whiff of capitulation, but notes a token-expenditure index tracking large-language-model usage is still ticking lower as firms turn cost-conscious, which undercuts the assumption that compute demand keeps compounding at the early pace (BBG). Australia was the one green shoot in the region, the ASX rising up 0.74 per cent.

Three central banks decide this week, and the market is not confident about any of them. The Federal Reserve announces on Wednesday with a 38 per cent chance of a quarter-point rise priced at that meeting, rising to a 71 per cent chance at the September meeting, odds that firmed overnight even as oil fell. The Bank of England on Thursday carries almost nothing for the day itself, a 4 per cent chance, with the argument deferred to a 53 per cent chance in September, and the Bank of Japan on Friday is priced at a 3 per cent chance. The Fed meeting is the genuinely open one: the chair has deliberately withheld guidance, and a former Fed official has warned that raising rates without indicating how far could leave investors pricing a series of increases the committee does not intend (WSJ). Citadel Securities has broken ranks with the consensus and expects a rise this week, arguing the market is underestimating the extent of the hawkish shift (BBG).

The Reserve Bank of Australia gave the clearest steer of the session. Governor Bullock said it remains unclear whether this year’s increases are enough to return inflation to target and that the board would raise the cash rate further if needed, but also that the full effects of earlier tightening will take time to emerge, and in the closing minutes of the question session described financial conditions as a bit on the restrictive side (BBG). Money markets trimmed their bets after the speech and the question session (BBG): an August move carries a 22 per cent chance, while 22 basis points are priced cumulatively by the December meeting, close to a full quarter point. So the August odds came down without the case for a rise by year-end being disturbed. The Australian dollar eased 0.33 per cent in response.

Currency markets were otherwise subdued, which is notable in itself on a day when equities moved this much. The dollar index was little changed, the euro unchanged at 1.1367 and sterling was steady at 1.329. The yen was unchanged at 163.71 despite the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday, and Japan’s finance minister said in the morning that Tokyo and Washington are aligned on taking action on the currency if needed. The Korean won firmed 0.12 per cent even as Korean equities fell sharply, a divergence consistent with domestic investors repatriating offshore holdings rather than any vote of confidence in the local market.

Government bonds gained modestly as the inflation scare receded. The US ten-year yield held at 4.62 per cent and the two-year at 4.30 per cent, leaving the curve little changed. Bond investors are hedging rather than positioning, unsure how to read a Fed that has stopped explaining itself (Reuters). Asian bonds were calm by comparison, with the Japanese ten-year yield at 2.79 per cent and the Australian ten-year at 4.96 per cent, little changed on the day.

Crude extended Monday’s steep decline, with WTI off 0.69 per cent on the day. Iranian and Omani negotiators are working towards reopening the strait’s middle passage, with Omani officials hoping to announce progress within days (BBG). Meanwhile, the passage is thought to contain sea mines laid by Iran and would need to be cleared before regular use. (BBG). However, one bank has begun flagging the opposite risk, that a deal before the US midterms could tip the market into surplus (BBG). Gold fell 0.75 per cent to $ 4,045.51 per ounce ahead of the decisions (WSJ), while wheat firmed as Black Sea attacks pushed prices to a two-year high (Nikkei).

Regarding the data releases overnight, UK shop price inflation fell to 0.9 per cent in July against expectations of 1.1 per cent and a 1.2 per cent prior, a six-month low, with food inflation down for a sixth consecutive month (BBG) — the softest possible backdrop two days before the Bank of England, and a direct contradiction of the argument that the energy shock is already reaching the shelves. New Zealand filled jobs rose just 0.1 per cent, with the prior revised down. The BoJ’s underlying inflation gauge held at 2.7 per cent, comfortably above target and the last such reading its board sees before Friday.

Ahead today: the Conference Board’s US consumer confidence reading and the advance goods trade balance, the last inputs before the Fed convenes, and results from Boeing, Coca-Cola, Visa and Barclays. Safran has already raised its full-year guidance on record margins in civil engine parts, a reminder that the earnings season is not only an artificial-intelligence story. You can read the full report here.

Time Stamp: 28 July 2026, 08:19 CET

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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Macro: The Big Picture

The FOMC begins its July meeting on Tuesday and announces the first of three G7 decisions on Wednesday evening CET, with the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.

Tuesday itself is a second-tier data day. The session opens with Governor Bullock’s Anika Foundation speech at 05:05 CET on the eve of Australia’s Q2 CPI, runs through French consumer confidence at 08:45 CET and Spain’s Q2 labour data at 09:00 CET, and finishes with a dense US afternoon, the advance goods trade balance at 14:30 CET, house prices at 15:00 CET, Conference Board consumer confidence at 16:00 CET and a 7-year note auction at 19:00 CET. An OPEC meeting is also scheduled for 12:00 CET.

Key Earnings: the week’s reporting peak builds through Tuesday, with Boeing, Coca-Cola and Visa in the US, Barclays, Mercedes-Benz, Unilever, GSK, Philips, Safran, Air Liquide and EssilorLuxottica in Europe, and Singapore Airlines, Hindustan Unilever and Larsen & Toubro in Asia. The mega-cap test follows midweek, Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday, with capex plans for AI the dominant question after Alphabet raised its spending forecast.

Data Release Previews

Euro Area: French consumer confidence at 08:45 CET is the euro-area session’s main sentiment read, with consensus looking for a tick up to 85 despite the renewed energy shock.

INSEE’s French consumer confidence gauge for July is released at 08:45 CET. Confidence stood at 84 in June and consensus looks for 85. The print is the first big-four national sentiment reading since the European Commission’s flash consumer confidence gauge for the euro area rose 1.7 points in July, a surprise given the renewed rise in fuel prices, so the question is whether French households mirror that resilience. Analyst forecasts straddle the consensus, from a further improvement in line with the euro-area flash to an outright fall below the June level. Some also caution that the July survey window may only partly capture the latest leg higher in energy prices, which would flatter the reading and defer any sentiment hit to August.

United States: Conference Board consumer confidence at 16:00 CET is expected to improve, but analysts are split on whether the oil shock has yet to hit households.

The Conference Board’s July consumer confidence index is released at 16:00 CET. The index rose to 91.2 in June, and the consensus sits at 92.2. June’s gain was driven by the expectations component while the present-situation gauge fell, and the labour-market differential, the share calling jobs hard to get less the share calling them plentiful, rose to a cycle high.

Analysts are split between the two sides of consensus. One camp expects gasoline prices and Strait-of-Hormuz headlines to have cut into July sentiment and buying intentions, while others point to record household wealth and a still-low level of layoffs and look for a further improvement. The disconnect between weak survey sentiment and resilient actual spending remains the structural backdrop, with equity wealth doing much of the work supporting US consumption this year.

Bloomberg survey: median 92.4, range 90.5 to 95 (as of 27-07-2026).

Editor’s Note: CB consumer confidence is the only Tuesday print with the chance to move the rates market on Fed eve. A soft headline with a rising labour differential would strengthen the hold-and-wait majority case a day before the decision and could trim September hike pricing, while an upside print largely confirms what the hawks already argue and leaves Wednesday’s calculus intact. Watch the labour-market differential as much as the headline; it is the component with the unemployment-rate signal.

Central Bank Speech Previews

RBA Governor Michele Bullock delivers her annual Anika Foundation address, titled ‘Monetary Policy in an Era of Shocks’, at 05:05 CET (13:05 AEST) in Sydney. The speech is livestreamed and includes media Q&A. It is her first set-piece since the June Board meeting, and it comes the day before Australia’s Q2 CPI and two weeks before the 11 August rate decision, which will be accompanied by the RBA’s refreshed August forecasts. At her most recent appearance, the 16 June post-meeting media conference, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% after 75bp of increases this year, and Bullock said ‘I want to be very clear that inflation remains too high.’ She confirmed the Board did not consider a hike at that meeting but kept the door open, saying the decision ‘does not rule out further tightening in monetary policy if that is what is required’ and, on the rates market’s light pricing at the time, ‘I can’t rule out that if inflation doesn’t respond in the way we expect it to do then we might have to do more.’ She said second-round effects from fuel and commodity costs were already visible in new dwelling costs and in business liaison, called the labour market still ‘a bit tight’ with unemployment forecast to drift to about 4.7%, put the economy’s supply-constrained speed limit near 2% growth, and noted underlying inflation was running ‘dead on’ the RBA’s forecast, with inflation not returning to target until mid-2028.

Event Risk Calendar

**Disclaimer:** This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or professional advice. The content represents the author’s personal views and analysis and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal.

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