The Giants entered the 2026 draft with the fourth and 29th overall picks and a $17.3 million bonus pool, the fourth-largest in baseball. Because they cannot pick higher than 10th in 2027, this may have been their best opportunity for some time to add premium talent near the top of the draft. The organization had not faced a draft decision of comparable magnitude since 2018, when the Bobby Evans regime selected Joey Bart second overall. Like Bart, the players chosen this year will likely outlast many of the people involved with the selection and help shape the organization through the early 2030s. At No. 4, the goal should be an All-Star-caliber player worth building around.

2026 San Francisco Giants Draft Review

The draft review was built primarily through archived game footage, using samples from throughout the season whenever video was available. Some players had much less footage than others, so those evaluations are more vulnerable to small sample effects. I also reviewed pitch and batted ball metrics when I could find them, though my access to that information has become more limited since leaving Twitter. The deadline review followed a similar process, relying heavily on MiLB.TV games and available public data.

1st round - No. 4 overall —— RHP Jackson Flora
21.2Y | 6'5", 205 | UC Santa Barbara | $8M bonus

Flora grew on me during the review process. His strikeout rate was good rather than overwhelming against modest Big West competition, which initially made me a bit skeptical of him as a top-five pick. The video reveals more ceiling than the strikeout rate alone suggests. He is a long, athletic right-hander with a quick, clean arm and unusual feel for manipulating the baseball. A former shortstop, he moves well enough to project average command, though the lean frame creates some uncertainty about how his stuff will hold over a major-league workload.

The fastball sits around 96 and has reached 100+. Its appeal is the combination of velocity, carry and a relatively low release for a pitcher his height, allowing it to approach the top of the zone on a flatter plane. It should miss bats when elevated properly, but the pitch is not so dominant that he can spray anywhere in the zone. Flora leaves too many heaters in hittable areas, and the shape became less lively late in the season as his workload climbed. If he eventually holds 96–97 deep into starts and consistently gets above barrels, it can be a good pitch. If the velocity or command backs up, it looks much more ordinary.

His breaking-ball feel is the separator. Flora throws a broad low-80s sweeper with legitimate lateral bite and can tighten it into a firmer slider/slutter in the upper 80s. The ability to create several shapes from a similar arm slot speaks to his feel, but the arsenal occasionally becomes muddled. The Giants need to help him settle on one dependable power breaker to pair with the sweeper. He already has the raw ingredients; the task is turning manipulation into repeatable, clearly separated weapons.

The kick change may be the best pitch in the arsenal. It comes out hard, carries very little spin and, at its best, fades and falls beneath the barrel. That gives Flora a legitimate answer for left-handed hitters and prevents him from becoming overly dependent on glove-side breaking balls. Its college results were excellent, though changeups often overmatch hitters at that level. The shape also varies more than the results suggest. Some are premium; others stay firm and hittable. Making the best version routine would raise his ceiling considerably.

Effective modern starters tend to have a fastball that works in a defined location, a bat-missing weapon against same-handed hitters and an offspeed pitch that keeps the opposite side honest. Flora already checks those boxes conceptually. The risk is familiar among highly drafted college arms: the fastball may prove less forgiving against major-league hitters, the command may stop short of allowing the full arsenal to play, and several interesting secondaries may not become several distinct major-league pitches. His athleticism gives him a better chance than most to make the necessary adjustments, but UCSB is also an accomplished pitching-development program, so it is fair to question how much easy improvement remains.

Flora projects as a mid-rotation starter if the fastball command improves and the kick change becomes more consistent. There is more ceiling if he adds strength and maintains his best velocity over a full season, but also meaningful relief risk if the fastball settles closer to average or his body cannot adapt to a 150-inning workload. He is not a finished front-line starter. The Giants are betting that his athleticism, arm strength and uncommon feel for shape give the development group enough clay to mold one.

Competitive Balance Round A - No. 29 overall —— LHP Carson Bolemon
19.3Y | 6’4”, 215 | Southside Christian HS (SC) | $3.38M bonus

Bolemon is considered one of the more polished prep arms in the class. He combines an 89–94 mph fastball with four-quadrant command, multiple distinct secondary shapes and an unusually advanced feel for changing speeds. He is well built, which supports a projection of 150-plus innings, but he also appears further along physically than the typical 19-year-old. I would not expect significant growth merely from filling out. The delivery is athletic and fairly compact, with a loose, quick arm and good balance through release. His arm path gets a little deep, and he rotates hard across his body, giving the delivery some violence, but the arm is in position by foot strike and the sequence does not look disconnected. The larger question is whether the delivery and command will hold under a professional workload, because maintaining it requires considerable athleticism.

The fastball has good raw carry and enough velocity to work above the barrel. It is not a pure power pitch, but his command and deception allow it to play better than the radar-gun reading. After touching 96 and sitting in the mid-90s in 2025, Bolemon sat closer to 89–92 in 2026, and the fastball looked considerably more ordinary. A return to the mid-90s would give him more margin. The risk is that advanced hitters stop chasing the breaking balls, force him into the zone and expose the heater.

His secondaries separate him from most high-school pitchers. The curveball has real depth and two-plane action, while the slightly harder sweeper stays flatter and moves sharply to the glove side. They are genuinely different shapes rather than interchangeable breaking balls. The kick change gives him a third angle, coming out firm before dropping and running away from right-handed hitters. That pitch could become especially important because it prevents the arsenal from leaning entirely on glove-side movement. He already has a plausible weapon for both handedness matchups and enough command to use them beyond chase counts.

There is still typical prep-pitcher risk: amateur hitters may chase shapes that professionals recognize early, and Bolemon has rarely been forced to survive without his best command. But the foundation is unusually complete: a starter’s delivery, advanced strike-throwing, four distinct pitches and strong makeup reports. He projects as a mid-rotation starter, with a chance for more if the fastball returns to its 2025 form. Bolemon had a partial elbow tear in eighth grade that was repaired with an internal brace; I found no publicly reported recurrence.

2nd round - No. 55 overall —— RHP Kaden Waechter
19.0Y | 6’3”, 190 | Jesuit HS (FL) | $3.25M bonus

Waechter is a good athlete with broad shoulders, a loose arm and some physical projection. The delivery is smooth and controlled, with a low three-quarters release and good momentum down the mound. He lands slightly closed and rotates through the front side, but the arm stays connected and he repeats well. The shortstop background shows in his body control.

The fastball generally sits in the low-to-mid 90s and touches 96–97. Waechter generates premium spin, though the four-seam’s shape is more ordinary. His sinker has decent arm-side run, giving him two distinct fastball looks. Though ordinary on their own, their value may come from commanding each in the right lane: four-seamers above barrels and sinkers down or running into right-handed hitters. Added strength and another tick of velocity would give both pitches more margin.

The upper-80s slider is the carrying secondary. It is a firm, short breaker with late depth and a bullet look, and he can tighten it into a cutter near 90. Waechter appears to manipulate the pitch deliberately, using the harder version in the zone and the deeper slider for chase. He already shows enough feel to locate it to both sides and back-foot it against lefties. It has a chance to become plus and could eventually drive his strikeout rate.

The changeup is less finished. It is hard and has good arm-side movement, but it often resembles a slower sinker and does not create enough separation beneath the fastball. It may need more drop, a larger velocity gap or both to become a dependable major-league weapon.

Waechter throws strikes, commands two fastball shapes and owns a potentially plus power slider. The risk is that the fastballs trend down in a pro workload and the changeup never becomes distinct enough, leaving him dependent on command and one breaker. Shepherding two fastball shapes, if that is the plan, is hard enough for a veteran, let alone a teenager. The Giants are betting on his athleticism, pitchability and starter delivery to make refinements. To me, he projects as a fastball-slider reliever, with high-leverage upside.

3rd round - No. 90 overall —— CF/RHH Peyton Bonds
21.0Y | 6’5”, 230 | Rutgers | $885K bonus

Bonds has an interesting profile: enormous raw power and exit velocities paired with excellent in-zone contact and few strikeouts, but relatively little game power. The swing is not conventionally long because he consistently gets the barrel to the ball. It is more flat, strength-driven and somewhat handsy, with the barrel entering its power zone late and exiting quickly. On video, it can look like he is swatting the ball rather than carrying the barrel through it. That works for hard line drives and grounders, but too many of his best swings produce low-angle contact. The concern is less whether he can hit and more whether his swing gives him enough margin to lift velocity and upper-level breaking stuff.

This is a realistic development target, but not an easy or automatic one. Bonds already owns the traits teams usually hope to preserve during a swing change: bat speed, impact and bat-to-ball skill. The Giants should seek a modest adjustment, an earlier barrel turn, better connection to the rear hip and a slightly more upward path through contact. A full power breakout does not require a complete transformation. Turning a small share of his hardest grounders into line drives, and some of those line drives into pulled air contact, would materially change the offensive profile. If he remains capable in center field, that version has everyday upside. He is an appealing bet, but perhaps too many things still need to align at the plate. He is Barry Bonds’ nephew.

4th round - No. 118 overall —— RHP Carlos Martinez
21.10Y | 6’2”, 210 | Hofstra | $600K bonus

Martinez is an interesting senior pick with a legitimate bat-missing breaker. He missed 2025 after Tommy John surgery, then returned with 96 strikeouts and 27 walks over 76⅓ innings. The delivery is simple and repeatable, though inconsistent arm timing leaves some durability and command risk. The fastball sits 92–95 and reaches 97, playing up somewhat through extension but grading more as a support pitch than a carrying one. His best offering is a firm slider around 88–90 that generated heavy whiff rates, with a slower breaking ball and changeup rounding out the mix. There is a back-end starter outcome if the fastball adds velocity and the changeup develops. The more likely fallback is a middle reliever who leans heavily on the slider.

5th round - No. 150 overall —— 2B/LHH Luke Nixon
21.10Y | 5’10”, 165 | NC State | $480K bonus

Nixon is a compact left-handed hitter whose junior-year breakout pushed him beyond being a pure organizational depth pick. He hit .367/.452/.595 with nine homers, nearly as many walks as strikeouts and 11 steals against ACC competition. The swing is short and functional rather than especially pretty. His front side can open early and the barrel works quickly across the zone rather than through, giving it a somewhat abrupt, rotational look, but his hands stay inside the ball and he consistently finds the barrel. There is enough bat speed and strength to punish mistakes, though the offensive foundation remains contact, swing decisions, and line drives rather than projectable power.

He has enough range, body control and reliability to remain at second base, but probably not enough arm or defensive impact to make the glove an outstanding tool. That places pressure on the bat, especially with little physical projection remaining. The optimistic outcome is a contact-oriented regular who reaches base, produces gap power, and contributes on the bases; the more likely role is a useful left-handed utility infielder. The main question is whether the increased power survives professional pitching and wood bats (slugged .268 in the Cape Cod League in 2025). If it does not, he has an upper-minors ceiling. He is Trot Nixon’s son.

6th round - No. 179 overall —— RHP Eric Nachtsheim
22.4Y | 6’4”, 235 | McNeese State | $280K bonus

Nachtsheim is a fastball for breakfast, lunch and dinner arm. It sits 92–95, reaches 97 and plays well above the velocity because of exceptional carry, extension and a flat angle. He threw it a ton of the time and still missed bats at a high rate.

The secondaries will determine the role. His low-80s slider lacks power and consistent bite, and the cutter is mostly a get-it-in pitch. The changeup is interesting and shows some fade, but he has not used it much. Nachtsheim has enough size, strike-throwing and workload history to begin as a starter, though he is unlikely to remain there for long. A fastball/changeup middle-relief outcome is plausible.

7th round - No. 208 overall —— LHP Beau Bryans
22.10Y | 6’0”, 200 | Jacksonville State | $220K bonus

Bryans is a physical former two-way player with a power relief look. He works from a low slot with pronounced crossfire, creating tough angle and heavy arm-side action on a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and touches 98. The delivery has deception and athleticism, but he throws across his body and can lose the release badly; walks and hit batters combined for roughly one free pass every five plate appearances.

The slider is the best secondary, a hard upper-80s breaker that tunnels well off the sinker and gives left-handed hitters an uncomfortable look. His changeup flashes enough fade to keep righties from sitting on the fastball, though his feel for it is limited. The Giants can let him start initially, but he looks likely to move to the bullpen quickly. There is late-inning upside if the strike-throwing reaches even fringe-average. I’m a sucker for a low release, so I like this pick.

8th round - No. 238 overall —— RHP Cody Brasch
22.7Y | 6’3”, 205 | University of Louisiana at Lafayette | $235K bonus

Brasch is a late-blooming power arm who opened 2026 in relief, collected six saves and then moved into Louisiana’s Friday rotation spot. He finished with a 2.77 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 74⅔ innings after missing 2024 with an injury and making only seven starts at junior college in 2025. That leaves him relatively inexperienced for a 22-year-old, but also gives the Giants more plausible developmental runway than with a typical eighth-round college pitcher.

The fastball sits 96–97, has reached triple digits and is built around carry. He throws from a high slot with efficient spin and enough extension for the pitch to play above the barrel. The delivery is athletic but not effortless: a tall leg lift, full arm circle and aggressive trunk finish create velocity and angle, while also introducing some timing dependence. The arm appears to reach position by foot strike, so I would not call it late, but he can pull hard toward the glove side after release. His present strike-throwing suggests he controls the delivery’s multiple moving parts, and maintaining that timing over a starter’s workload is a question.

The firm mid-80s bullet slider is the best secondary and fits naturally beneath the fastball, while a slower curve gives hitters another vertical look. Neither breaker is finished, but there is genuine breaking-ball feel here. The Giants can continue starting him because the fastball quality and control warrant it, but the likely outcome is relief: simplify the arsenal to the elevated four-seamer and one tightened power breaker, allowing the velocity to play in short bursts. I really like this pick, even if he ends up in the bullpen.

9th round - No. 268 overall —— 2B/LHH Mike Mancini
22.11Y | 5’11”, 180 | Vanderbilt | $25K bonus

Mancini has a compact left-handed swing, above-average speed and enough defensive versatility to move around the diamond. He rebounded from a hamate-affected junior year to hit .305/.433/.595 with 15 homers and 20 steals, earning All-SEC and All-Defensive honors at second base. The swing is simple and direct, with little wasted hand movement, but the barrel works through a fairly narrow window and can cut across the ball. His raw power was a bit above average in college; we will have to see how much translates into game power against professional pitching. There is also a bit too much swing-and-miss in the profile. His baserunning instincts and defensive versatility should earn him playing time while the bat develops, but he enters pro ball as organizational depth.

10th round - No. 298 overall —— RHP Ian Korn
23.2Y | 6’0”, 205 | West Virginia | $50K bonus

Korn is a thickly built, strike-throwing swingman who handled a jump from Division II to the Big 12, posting a 3.39 ERA with 70 strikeouts and only 13 walks over 79⅔ innings, mostly in a bulk-relief role. The delivery is direct and repeatable, with a high-three-quarters release and moderate effort. He gets over a firm front side but finishes across his body, giving him a clear reliever look.

The fastball sits 91–93 and touches 95, but the shape looks below average. His mid-80s slider will miss bats when sharp, though the shape and execution are inconsistent. Korn’s control gives him a chance to cover innings, but there is little projection in the profile. He looks like an innings filler in the lower minors.

11th round - No. 328 overall —— OF/RHH Charlie Bussey III
22.8Y | 6’2”, 205 | Francis Marion - DII | $150K bonus

Bussey hit .489/.604/.866 with 21 homers, 40 steals, 57 walks and only 25 strikeouts, leading Division II in average, OBP, hits, and runs. His contact was consistently loud, with elite exit velocities alongside strong in-zone contact. The swing is compact and strength-driven, with a quiet lower half and a fairly direct barrel path. He can become rotational and pull-conscious, but there is no glaring length or bat-to-ball problem. His overall movements look somewhat stiff, and the bat can appear slow when his physical strength is not driving the swing. The obvious question is the competition level. Division II pitching gave him little incentive to expand the zone, and his low swing rate may become less feasible once professional pitchers challenge him with better strikes. Bussey has enough speed and athleticism to be more than a stationary first baseman, but average defense in an outfield corner is probably the ceiling. There are real power indicators here, but I’m not sold on the athleticism or plate approach.

12th round - No. 358 overall —— OF/RHH Josiah Kemp
18.10Y | 6’1”, 185 | Choctaw HS (OK) | $400K bonus

Kemp has an interesting mix of tools. He has run a 6.54-second 60-yard dash and produced exit velocities around 109–110 mph, an appealing combination of speed and impact for a 12th-round pick. The swing is compact and fairly simple: a controlled move forward, limited hand travel and a direct path into the zone. He stays behind the ball, braces the front side and has enough hand strength to drive pitches to the opposite gap rather than selling out for pull power. That is when the swing looks best. Too often, however, he rotates his upper body early and the barrel leaves the zone quickly, creating a narrower contact window than the “contact-oriented” label suggests. His athleticism lets him adjust late against high-school pitching; better velocity and spin will test whether he can keep his hands back without losing impact. Still, when he is on time and the kinetic chain works fluidly, the swing looks good. He will begin his professional career in center field, and remaining there would materially improve the profile. This is a good signing late in the draft. He is Matt Kemp’s nephew.

13th round - No. 388 overall —— LHP Colin Fisher
21.11Y | 6’3”, 225 | Arkansas | $300K bonus

Fisher works from a compact, lower three-quarters slot with some angle across his body. The delivery is fairly simple, and he generally fills the zone, but he does not have much margin for error. He struck out 58 against 17 walks in 56⅓ innings. Fisher began 2026 in Arkansas’ weekend rotation but lost that fixed role during a rough SEC stretch, then worked in relief while making occasional spot starts before moving to the bullpen for good after his final start in late April. He missed most of his freshman year after he underwent elbow surgery, and returned during the 2025 season.

The low-90s sinker is his primary fastball and has heavy arm-side run, but it is more of a contact-management pitch than a bat-misser. His straighter four-seamer was especially hittable. The attraction is a pair of high-spin breakers: a big curveball with real depth and a sweeper with similar glove-side movement on a flatter plane. Both missed plenty of bats, but the shapes overlap and were hit hard when left in the zone. He shows little feel for the changeup.

The Giants should probably narrow the mix around the sinker and whichever big breaker he commands best, then determine what he can use against right-handed hitters. Without a viable third pitch, this looks like a low-leverage relief ceiling. There is a lot of work to do here.

14th round - No. 418 overall —— RHP Alex Solis
21.9Y | 6’1”, 190 | Houston | $150K bonus

Solis will need to take a physical step forward to become more than an organizational player, though his frame suggests that is possible. He sits around 96 mph with both a four-seamer and sinker, but neither fastball missed many bats or limited hard contact. The four-seamer has decent carry, though his high release, ordinary extension and fairly steep angle make it play down. The sinker has decent run but was even more hittable. His strike-throwing improved as a junior, when he recorded 37 strikeouts against 11 walks in 37⅔ innings.

His most interesting pitch is the offspeed offering, which arrives in the mid-80s with arm-side fade and has the look of a whiff generator. His short slider can also miss bats, but it is not much more than a chase pitch. Solis throws from a high slot, lands slightly closed and finishes with forceful rotation. The arm is up on time, but the delivery has effort and limited extension, so the velocity does not play up through his release traits. The development path is straightforward: add strength and coax more velocity from the sinker and slider. The offspeed pitch gives him a chance to handle both sides of the plate, but he will need another credible offering to move to the upper minors.

15th round - No. 448 overall —— 3B/RHH Drew Smith
23.2Y | 6’2”, 201 | Oregon | $25K bonus

Smith had a senior-year power breakout that matched his longstanding ability to hit the ball hard. He batted .338/.421/.618 with 16 homers, more than his first three seasons combined, but also struck out 69 times against 30 walks. The swing has some length and effort: he loads the barrel deep, turns hard around a firm front side and finishes with lift. That produces real pull-side damage, but the barrel can enter and leave the hitting zone quickly, leaving him vulnerable when his timing is disrupted. The power improvement appears legitimate; we will have to see whether it survives professional pitching. Smith played primarily third base as a senior and made the Big Ten All-Defensive Team, with prior experience at second base, center field and right field. He is more versatile than a typical senior corner bat and is a useful player for filling out a lower-level lineup.

16th round - No. 478 overall —— 3B/SHH Dalton Wentz
21.0Y | 6’2”, 215 | Wake Forest | $585K bonus

Wentz is a bat-first switch hitter with strength, bat speed and legitimate pull power. He hit .306/.414/.629 with 18 homers and 42 walks as a sophomore, regularly producing hard contact from both sides. The swing is leveraged and forceful rather than especially fluid. A deep hand load, firm front side and aggressive rotation create impact, but the barrel can take a steep route into the zone and produce considerable swing-and-miss when his timing is off. That creates concerns about how he will handle professional velocity and spin, though his swing decisions are generally sound. Wentz has enough arm for third base, but his reactions and lateral range need work; a move to first base or an outfield corner would place even more pressure on the bat. He looks like a power-over-hit corner player whose limited defensive value leaves little margin for the bat to fall short.

17th round - No. 508 overall —— OF/RHH Tanner Mally
21.11Y | 6’0”, 185 | Western Michigan | $150K bonus

Mally won the D-I batting title at .446/.554/.528, striking out only 13 times in 243 plate appearances while stealing 19 bases. The OBP was inflated by 23 hit-by-pitches, but the contact skill is real. He also hit .338/.457/.427 with only 16 strikeouts in 293 wood-bat plate appearances across two summer leagues, adding 25 steals. The swing is short, balanced and built to put the barrel on the ball. He uses a modest forward move, keeps his hands compact and lets pitches travel, allowing him to cover the outer half without much swing length. It is also a low-impact stroke: the barrel works fairly level, there is limited lift through contact, and he does not create much force with the lower half. Mally never homered in nearly 500 college plate appearances, and even his strong wood-bat résumé produced only two. Mally has twice made the All-MAC Defensive Team in center and runs well enough to remain there, giving the contact profile a chance to play. The ceiling is limited without more impact, but a right-handed center fielder who rarely strikes out, reaches base and adds value on the bases provides a fifth-outfielder ceiling. The challenge will be keeping professional pitchers from overwhelming him in the zone with velocity once they realize he poses little damage risk.

18th round - No. 538 overall —— LHP Ryder Brooks
22.5Y | 6’3”, 200 | UC Irvine | $120K bonus

Brooks moved to the bullpen after making 12 starts in 2025, striking out 41 in 33⅓ innings. He works in the low 90s with a running fastball that produces ground balls and a low-80s sweeper capable of missing bats. The sweeper is the carrying pitch; the fastball lacks enough velocity or distinctive shape. The delivery adds deception. Brooks lands somewhat closed and throws across his body from a lower three-quarters slot, helping the fastball run and the sweeper move away from lefties. His arm is in position on time, but the front side stays soft and he falls off toward the glove side, which can scatter the release. The hope is for a left-on-left or middle-relief role built around the sweeper and ground-ball fastball. Starting experience could let him cover multiple innings, but he would need either a velocity jump or a credible third pitch to turn over upper-minors lineups.

Final thoughts on the 2026 Draft

This draft was a bet on athletic starters with feel for breaking balls, supported by later-round players with one carrying tool. Flora, Bolemon, and Waechter absorbed roughly 85% of the bonus pool. All three move well, have enough athleticism to project strikes and can manipulate multiple breaking-ball shapes. None currently owns a dominant fastball. The Giants appear to believe athleticism, command foundations and feel for spin are better, and perhaps more durable traits to build upon than pure present-day power pitching.

I’m fine with Flora at No. 4. Bolemon is an interesting pick, though much depends on why his velocity backed up this spring and what that means for his long-term outlook. Those are questions outsiders cannot properly answer, but the risk is real. Waechter looks like a miss to me right now. There is considerable work required to build a starter’s arsenal, and the Giants gave him a significant bonus. I’d put Wentz and Fisher in the same miss category, though the consequences are much smaller; both received notable bonuses despite limited ceilings in my view.

I like Brasch, especially if the Giants give him a legitimate rotation opportunity. Bryans should bring interesting stuff and angle to the lower minors and could post big strikeout numbers if he throws enough strikes. I’m generally drawn to power-speed combinations, so Kemp appeals to me; there are ingredients worth developing there. Bonds, Nachtsheim, Martinez, Mally and Nixon each have interesting traits, but I do not currently see anyone in that group developing into a 40 FV prospect within the next year.

Overall grade: C+. That could rise into the B- to B range if Bolemon’s health and diminished 2026 velocity prove less concerning than they appear from the outside.

Quick notes on the three players selected ahead of Flora

I would have preferred Lackey, but I had Flora ahead of both Cholowsky and Emerson, and not because I love Flora.

SS Roch Cholowsky: I don’t get it. There is real plus power, athleticism and ease to his defensive actions. My concern is the swing. His hands are late, the front foot gets down early, and he is forced into a longer, tighter path to the ball. Good hand-eye coordination allows him to punish average college stuff, but I’m skeptical that it plays against premium pitching. His first step also makes me think he ends up at third base. I would not have taken him in the top five. 45+ FV ceiling for me.

SS Grady Emerson: He looks somewhat physically maxed out and like an average athlete. The swing is functional, but his barrel accuracy appears inconsistent, so I’m not sure I buy the lofty hit-tool grades. I do like the pull-side power potential; perhaps there is a 20-homer second baseman here. Still, I think the combination of advanced polish, limited physical projection and ordinary athleticism creates more utility-player risk than the public models suggest. 45 FV.

C Vahn Lackey: There is a lot to like. He has developed rapidly over the past two years despite having fewer high-level reps than most players considered this early. He moves well and shows enough fluidity to project as at least an average athlete, though the frame may not support true 60-grade power. The raw bat speed is present, and the swing path is workable. He is very handsy right now, does not consistently use his lower half and can look disconnected from swing to swing. Still, the timing appears sound, and reports suggest he recognizes spin reasonably well, though that is difficult to judge without extensive looks. Behind the plate, the arm is good, but I cannot confidently evaluate much beyond that. I generally assume amateur catchers will be below-average defenders until they prove otherwise in the upper minors. Even with that uncertainty, I preferred Lackey to Emerson and Cholowsky because of the athleticism, positional value and how advanced he looks relative to his experience. 55 FV.

Look back on how the 2025 class is doing

The Giants had an $8.4M bonus pool for the 2025 draft and spent approximately $8.8M after using nearly all of the allowable 5% overage. The three largest bonuses, Gavin Kilen, Trevor Cohen and Reid Worley, accounted for just under 78% of that spending. Adding Lorenzo Meola brings the group to approximately $7.5M, or 85%.

Gavin Kilen:

Pick/bonus: No. 13, $5.25 million
Age/level: 22, AA
2026 performance: 114 wRC+ in High-A and 124 through his first 60 AA plate appearances, with a combined strikeout rate around 13%.
Grades (trend): FanGraphs 45 FV → 45 FV; Baseball America 50/High → 50/Average, No. 9; MLB Pipeline 55 → 50, No. 4.
Stock: Flat

This is a good first full professional season. The contact has translated, the promotion pace is encouraging, and Kilen remains on track to become a useful major leaguer, but evaluators have not raised his projected ceiling. Kilen is holding serve, but not yet outperforming the expected value.

Trevor Cohen

Pick/bonus: No. 85, $847,500
Age/level: 22, AA
2026 performance: 119 wRC+ in High-A and 127 after reaching AA
Grades: FanGraphs 35 FV → 40 FV; Baseball America unranked → No. 10, 50/Average; MLB Pipeline 40 → 45, No. 9.
Stock: Up

Cohen has made the clearest genuine stock gain in the class. Both FanGraphs and Pipeline raised his grade rather than merely moving him up an organizational ranking, and the probability that he becomes a useful major-league complementary outfielder has increased substantially. I personally have him higher, but this review is limited to public industry opinion.

Reid Worley

Pick/bonus: No. 266, $747,500
Age/level: 20, injured list
2026 performance: No meaningful professional performance after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Grades: Baseball America 50/Extreme → 45/High, No. 28; no active FanGraphs FV; unranked by MLB Pipeline.
Stock: Flat/Down

Worley was the class’s largest overslot investment beyond Kilen, receiving more than half a million dollars above the pick slot. It is too early to make any determinations about Worley’s future, but the pick’s present value is materially below that of a healthy version of the same prospect.

Lorenzo Meola

Pick/bonus: No. 116, $652,200
Age/level: 22, Low-A
2026 performance: 93 wRC+ with a strikeout rate around 25% against Low-A pitching.
Grades: FanGraphs ungraded → honorable mention; Baseball America 45/High → 45/Average, No. 21; MLB Pipeline 40 → 40, No. 17.
Stock: Flat formally, down statistically

Meola’s shortstop defense preserves a plausible utility-infielder outcome, but this is poor offensive performance for a 22-year-old fourth-round college player in Low-A. None of the major outlets has reduced his grade ceiling, but there is also no evidence that the bat has progressed beyond its draft-day questions.

The rest of the class

Isaiah Barkett has produced the strongest statistical season, and Cody Delvecchio showed the most encouraging pitching performance before ending up on the 60-day IL. Barkett has not yet appeared on a major public prospect list. Jordan Gottesman has missed bats without dominating. Cam Maldonado and Ben Bybee have underperformed relative to their age and bonus, while Rod Barajas Jr. remains a defense-first catching-depth piece. Damian Bravo and the older Garrett Langrell have posted respectable numbers without escaping organizational player status. Luke Mensik’s poor rookie-ball debut is not encouraging, though it remains too early for a firm determination. Broedy Poppell, Trey Seeley, and Cooper McGrath have performed like organizational depth. Braydon Risley was having a good debut before being unexpectedly released; he has since joined Pittsburgh.

How the class stacks up

Teams with comparable 2025 bonus pools appear to have created more prospect value one year later, based on the most recent FanGraphs Board grades:

Atlanta — $9,081,100: Tate Southisene, the first-round pick who signed for $2.62 million, is now a 50 FV prospect and ranks No. 75 overall. Fourth-rounder Briggs McKenzie, who received the class’s largest bonus at $3 million, is a 45+ FV.

Los Angeles — $9,031,300: Zachary Root, a first-rounder signed for $2.2 million, is a 50 FV prospect and ranks No. 52 overall. Fellow first-rounder Charles Davalan is a 45+ FV, while second-rounder Cam Leiter is a 40+ FV.

San Francisco — $8,403,300: First-rounder Gavin Kilen, who signed for $5.25 million, is a 45 FV prospect; third-rounder Trevor Cohen, who signed for $847,500, is a 40 FV.

Philadelphia — $7,849,400: First-rounder Gage Wood, signed for $3 million, has risen to 55 FV and ranks No. 21 overall.

Atlanta and Los Angeles have each produced a 50 FV prospect alongside at least one additional meaningful prospect, while Philadelphia has developed Wood into one of baseball’s better pitching prospects. The Giants have mostly preserved the value of their first pick and found one useful later riser rather than producing either a major breakout or several meaningful secondary gains. One year in, the class trails peers with similar bonus pools. Kilen still projects as a useful major leaguer, and Cohen may be somewhat underrated, but the class has lagged behind by current public evaluations, at least at FanGraphs.

2026 San Francisco Giants Trade Deadline Review

Giants traded RHP Tyler Mahle to Atlanta for RHP Anthony Molina

Anthony Molina — RHP | 24.6Y | 6’1”, 170 | Venezuela
Signed by Tampa Bay as an international free agent on July 2, 2018. He was later selected by Colorado in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft and has appeared in the majors in each of the past three seasons.

2026 AAA: 54.1 IP, 47 H, 20 BB, 56 K, 3.64 ERA, 12.4% SwStr, 43.4% GB.

MLB career (2024–26): 99.1 IP, 130 H, 29 BB, 67 K, 6.89 ERA, 7.3% SwStr, 42.2% GB.

On paper, Molina has enough of a mix to profile as a fringe major-league starter, but that outcome looks unlikely in practice. His four-seamer has above average velocity, yet it plays down because of a generic shape and inconsistent command. He can get outs with a slider against right-handed hitters and a changeup against lefties. Both could become average offerings, though he does not always have both working at the same time. Molina looks more like a candidate to compete with Bivens, Beck and others for the Brubaker mop-up role that should open in 2027.

Atlanta claimed Molina off waivers from Colorado on December 5, 2025, then outrighted him after he cleared waivers later that month. The Giants, like every other club, passed on adding him to the 40-man roster during that second waiver process. That provides some indication of the industry’s opinion of him less than a year ago, although he has since added approximately 1.5 mph to his fastball.

Outlook: It is slightly disappointing that the Giants could not do better or take a chance on someone with more upside from the lower minors.

Giants traded 2B Luis Arraez and RHP Caleb Kilian to Philadelphia for RHP Ramon Marquez and RHP Marty Gair

Ramon Marquez

Ramon Marquez — RHP | 20.9Y | 6’2”, 182 | Phoenix-born; signed out of Mexico
Signed by Philadelphia for $10,000 in January 2025 after developing in Mexico.

2026 Low-A/High-A: 59.0 IP, 29 H, 19 BB, 93 K, 1.68 ERA, 50.7% GB.

Marquez now sits 94–97 mph, roughly two ticks higher than last year. His low-slot running fastball can arrive flatter than a typical sinker and climb over barrels when elevated, giving it the behavior of a riding two-seamer. His 81–84 mph changeup mirrors that arm-side path before arriving nearly 13 mph slower and substantially lower. He also mixes in a short gyro slider.

The changeup can be a primary weapon against lefties, fading away from them. Against righties, the same movement runs toward the bat path, but the extreme speed separation and steeper arrival still allow it to miss below swings. That gives him a credible way to handle both sides of a lineup.

The gyro breaker still needs to become a dependable glove-side strike and chase pitch, while his violent delivery and modest workload history leave significant reliever risk. Development should focus on commanding the breaker in two locations: inside the zone early and below or beyond the glove-side edge when ahead. If the added velocity and strike-throwing survive a full upper-minors season, one average breaker could make him a legitimate mid-rotation starter. As it stands, he looks like a strong high-leverage relief candidate. 45 FV.

Marty Gair

Marty Gair — RHP | 23.0Y | 6’6”, 230 | Florida SouthWestern State JC
Selected by Philadelphia in the 13th round, 403rd overall, in the 2023 draft.

2026 Low-A: 33.0 IP, 18 H, 21 BB, 58 K, 4.91 ERA, 19.0% SwStr, 38.9% GB.

Gair’s four-seamer has some unique traits, averaging 97.9 mph and reaching 102 with nearly seven feet of extension, top-of-the-scale carry and almost no horizontal movement. Its actual approach angle is only around major-league average, however, because his high release and low-middle locations work against the shape. The Giants should emphasize getting it consistently to the top of the zone, where the carry can matter, while developing a harder slider or another secondary that creates a clear downward lane. His current mid-80s slider has not produced enough strikes or whiffs. The necessary leap is improved fastball location plus one credible finishing pitch, because advanced hitters will eventually sit on an arsenal that consists of more than 80% fastballs. He has an up-and-down middle-relief profile right now. 35+ FV.

Outlook: Kilian has five years of control remaining after this season and an 88 FIP- in a mix of medium and high leverage work. That is more value than immediately meets the eye. He has an injury history and is already 29, so I would not pencil him in for five years of average relief production. Before the deadline, I suggested that landing a fringe top 100 prospect for Arraez would represent good business. The Giants appear to have acquired someone a bit better than that, with Kilian helping bridge the gap. Solid trade.

Giants traded LHP Robbie Ray and cash considerations to San Diego for RHP Miguel Mendez and SS Joniel Hernandez

Miguel Mendez

Miguel Mendez — RHP | 24.1Y | 6’2”, 165 | Dominican Republic
Signed by San Diego as an international free agent on February 5, 2021. He was added to the Padres’ 40-man roster following the 2025 season.

2026 AA: 34.2 IP, 33 H, 17 BB, 38 K, 4.93 ERA, SwStr unavailable, 45.7% GB.

Mendez sits 97–98 mph and reaches triple digits, but his high release gives the four-seamer below-average major-league shape. His best bat-misser is a high-spin, mid-80s “slutter” that has produced huge whiff rates despite fluctuating among gyro, cutter and more horizontal shapes. The hard changeup has fade but limited vertical separation.

The Giants can get more from the mix by keeping the four-seamer at the top of the zone, introducing a sinker down and arm-side, and separating the breaker into a repeatable strike shape and a distinct chase version. His velocity has covered for some of these deficiencies, but cracks are beginning to show: his AA walk rate has climbed back near 16%, the changeup loses depth when thrown in the low 90s, and neither secondary is executed consistently enough to turn over a lineup.

Projecting him as a starter requires a genuine command leap and a more repeatable breaking ball; a usable sinker or improved changeup would also provide a third movement profile. The likelier bet is that shorter outings allow the fastball to remain near triple digits and turn the slutter into a dominant finishing pitch. He could become a very good power reliever, with starting upside remaining a low probability outcome. 40+ FV.

Joniel Hernandez

Joniel Hernandez — SS | 17.4Y | 6’1”, 180 | Cuba
Signed by San Diego as an international free agent on January 15, 2026.

2026 DSL: 192 PA, .303/.424/.503, 16.1% K, 16.7% BB, 120 wRC+.

Hernandez has a solid DSL stat line, with an ISO above .200 and a strikeout rate below 20%. I generally expect Cuban players to be somewhat more advanced than their DSL counterparts, so I would discount the performance slightly in that context. He clocked in a 6.33-second 60-yard dash, but has only four stolen bases this season, perhaps because the organization has not encouraged him to run. He is a shortstop for now, with the athleticism to move to center field long term. At the plate, he has a simple setup and decent fluidity, but an effort-heavy, flat bat path that generates surprising thump and may leave him exposed against quality breaking balls. There is also some projection for further power growth. He is a long way from the major leagues, but there are tools to develop. 40 FV.

Outlook: I noted about a month ago that the Giants would need to include roughly $5 million to receive anything better than a 40 FV prospect for Ray. They appear to have included about $4.5 million, which helped produce this return. This is about as good as they could have expected for Ray.

Giants traded OF Heliot Ramos to the Yankees for LHP Henry Lalane and INF Kaeden Kent

Henry Lalane

Henry Lalane — LHP | 22.2Y | 6’7”, 211 | Born in the Bronx; signed out of the Dominican Republic
Signed by the Yankees as an international free agent on May 4, 2021, for $350,000.

2026 Low-A/High-A: 78.0 IP, 52 H, 26 BB, 98 K, 2.77 ERA, 16.0% tracked SwStr, 48.8% GB.

Lalane has missed bats, limited hits and kept the ball on the ground while advancing to High-A, with fastball velocity sitting 95–97 mph from a low, roughly 36-degree slot with 6.7 feet of extension. His fading changeup plays well off the fastball against righties, with about 11 mph of separation, while the slow sweeping slider gives lefties the opposite movement path and has generated strong chase and whiff rates. The limitation is that the fastball lacks ideal carry for its release traits and can be squared up above the zone, while inconsistent slider command leaves him without a dependable third weapon against advanced right-handed hitters. To project as an average starter, the added velocity must hold and the Giants must either improve the fastball’s shape or develop a firmer cutter/slider that works against both sides; his injury history (shoulder surgery in 2024) and Rule 5 eligibility add risk and urgency to that development. The bet is a starter candidate whose size, handedness and two bat-missing secondaries provide a back-end rotation path, with the changeup still offering a useful relief fallback if the fastball and third pitch do not progress. I strongly lean toward the reliever outcome, as there are too many hurdles to reaching 130–150 innings of average major league pitching as a starter.

Kaeden Kent

Kaeden Kent — INF | 22.9Y | 6’2”, 200 | Texas A&M
Selected by the Yankees in the third round, 103rd overall, in the 2025 draft.

2026 High-A: 354 PA, .302/.359/.433, 16.1% K, 8.2% BB, 107 wRC+.

Kent has a mature, contact-oriented approach, with good swing decisions, strong two-strike coverage and a line-drive swing that gets the ball in the air without producing many empty swings. His low walk rate appears more tied to an aggressive two-strike and three-ball approach than poor pitch recognition, though limited bat speed and modest exit velocity cap the offensive ceiling. He has enough strength to project for occasional 15-homer power, but reaching that level will require the Giants to help him create more force and fluidity through his lower half. There is some stiffness and a lack of hip engagement at the plate. Kent’s speed, instincts and ability to handle second and third base, with some shortstop utility, give him a plausible path to a bench role. He profiles as a contact-first utility infielder and useful upper-minors depth, with a chance to become more if the quality of contact improves. 35+ FV.

Outlook: I need to see more of Lalane, but don’t like this trade right now. Left field was an area the Giants needed to upgrade because Ramos has trended toward a league average bat with below average, though improved, defense. That still adds up to a fringe average regular. He is also cost-controlled, and he continues to show flashes that a 115–120 wRC+ season could be possible again. Lalane has a long injury history, has never shouldered anything remotely close to a starter’s workload, and needs to refine command and a third pitch. To like the deal, you need to believe he can contribute in the rotation at some point. I don’t believe he can.

Heliot Ramos will be remembered fondly in my house. He was in the organization for nearly a decade, had ups and downs, reinvented himself a couple times, always put the effort in, and seemingly had a joyous personality. Good Giant.

Giants traded LHP Erik Miller and OF Carlos Gutierrez to Boston for INF Marcelo Mayer

Marcelo Mayer — INF | 23.6Y | 6’3”, 188 | Eastlake HS, California
Selected by Boston with the fourth overall pick in the first round of the 2021 draft and signed for $6.7M.

2026 MLB: 228 PA, .220/.282/.312, 19.3% K, 7.0% BB, 63 wRC+.

Marcelo Mayer has had a significant injury interruption every year since 2022: right wrist/TFCC issues in 2022 and 2025, a left shoulder injury in 2023, a lumbar strain in 2024, and a left forearm stress reaction in 2026. His 2023–25 seasons all ended early, with the recurring wrist injury requiring surgery in 2025. Mayer entered pro ball as MLB Pipeline’s top-rated 2021 draft prospect and went fourth overall. He remained an elite prospect despite repeated injuries, ranking No. 15 entering 2024 and No. 8 when he debuted in 2025.

Mayer has substantially reduced his strikeout rate from his 2025 debut, but the improved contact has not translated into damage. There are nevertheless encouraging signs and reasons to believe the injuries have not caused major tool decline. On video, he does not look physically diminished in raw bat speed or power. He looks more like a hitter whose timing and barrel feel have deteriorated.

A possible intervention would be to move his contact point slightly deeper, reduce the increasingly pull path, and perhaps shorten the swing marginally so he can square fastballs more consistently. The immediate goal should be to let the bat speed play and get him back to driving the ball into the gaps. He can return to selling out for pull-side power once the swing is functioning properly. He has graded well in limited major league time at second and third, while evaluators have increasingly projected him away from shortstop. Perhaps working with a new group of coaches can help him become playable there, which would meaningfully improve his profile.

Outlook: My initial reaction was that the Giants gave up too much for a player who has done little in the majors. After watching Mayer more closely, however, I am more optimistic that there is still worthwhile upside to chase. Miller is more effective than his volatile outings sometimes suggest and will be a meaningful loss for the bullpen in 2026 and 2027. Still, his trouble staying healthy and periodic bouts of backed-up stuff make me somewhat less concerned about losing him. Gutierrez is a fun player who has made strides this year in translating more of his strength into game power. I viewed him as an end-of-bench type entering the season, and that remains my assessment.

The front office handled the trade deadline fairly well, though several red flags keep the work from grading as a clear success.

• Mahle for Molina: A slight disappointment; Molina looks more like optionable 2027 depth than a meaningful return, despite his recent velocity gain.

• Arraez and Kilian for Marquez and Gair: A solid trade that converts Arraez plus a useful but older reliever into a legitimate 45 FV arm in Marquez and an interesting power-relief lottery ticket.

• Ray and cash for Mendez and Hernandez: Good business given Ray’s contract, with the cash helping to secure a near-ready power arm and a toolsy young shortstop.

• Ramos for Lalane and Kent: The weakest deal, as the Giants surrendered a controllable, near-average regular for a highly volatile return with upside.

• Miller and Gutierrez for Mayer: A defensible upside bet that looks better after examining Mayer’s physical tools, although losing a valuable controllable reliever makes it far from a clear win.

Overall grade: B-. The Giants added two genuine upside targets in Marquez and Mayer, and acquiring Mendez for Ray was good business.

They handled the deadline the way a struggling team seeking to retool rather than rebuild should. They moved the rentals, traded two valuable controllable relievers, opened an outfield spot by dealing a roughly 1.5–2 WAR regular and took a significant swing on a former top prospect whose stock had fallen. The returns added depth to the farm, particularly on the pitching side, with Marquez, Mendez and Lalane bringing much needed upside and potential high leverage arm talent. The cost is that building even an average bullpen for 2027 now looks more difficult, while a corner outfield spot will need to be filled by unproven options. Retooling teams are effectively betting that they are temporarily embarrassed and that they can engineer a quick turnaround. That requires taking risks and trusting the organization’s ability to identify and develop talent. I appear to value each return about half to a full letter grade below the organization, and many outside evaluators, which explains my lower overall grade. We will see how it plays out.

That wraps things up. My overall takeaway is that the Giants avoided any major mistakes in the draft or at the deadline and handled the biggest decisions reasonably well. A recurring theme across both the draft and deadline was the acquisition of pitchers whose fastballs need optimization. The Giants added considerable arm talent, but much of its eventual value depends on helping ordinary or location-dependent heaters play above their present quality. Beneath those headline moves, they continued to favor certain player types and development bets that I do not agree with. Still, it was a productive few weeks, highlighted by a meaningful infusion of pitching talent into the system. The next step, and the part that ultimately matters, is developing that talent and converting it into useful major-league players.

My next writeup should come shortly after the season ends, with a full review of the Giants’ 2026 season. I suspect there will be plenty to discuss. After that, I may put together an offseason plan; otherwise, I’ll move on to updating the Top 80 ahead of the 2027 season.

I continue to be active on Bluesky. You can also reach me at giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com.

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I didn’t see much point in herding. What’s the fun in that? It’s also why I haven’t done one of these since 2021. If you read everyone, look at everything, and watch everything, it’s easy to end up at conclusions that are already out there. That also takes a lot of time and effort. I don’t really have that, so I decided to just watch players and see if they “move” in a way that I believe will lead to success. What I mean by move, I hope, comes through in my reviews of certain players.

When I make declarative statements about players, those are just my opinions. It’s tiresome to write, and read, “in my opinion” or some variation of it every time, so I’ve omitted that throughout. A couple more caveats: I’m not a scout in any sense, just a guy who has watched a lot of baseball. If an obvious player isn’t on this list, it may mean I didn’t have enough video to review, or any at all. Or it may just be an oversight because I’m bad at this.

Lastly, rankings don’t really mean anything beyond a snapshot of opinion. The Giants believe every player in the system is a potential major leaguer. In the end, the player, their talent, and their work ethic determine how far they go.

Note: If you’re reading this in your inbox, the post may be truncated. Please click “View entire message.”

Top 80

Players are ranked by tiers. In my mind there is some role projection difference between the tiers. The players within each tier have comparable outcome ranges, but are ranked by how I’d bet on them getting there. For a primer on FV, start here.

Tier 60 FV (All-Star)

1. 1B Bryce Eldridge (21.5Y): Watching Eldridge’s PAs, the player that comes to mind is Rafael Devers. Not in terms of raw ability, but in how they succeed. They don’t miss bad pitches. They keep the bat path in line to do damage rather than prioritizing contact, which can lead to whiffs and poor zone contact, but also cuts down on weak contact on balls in play. Devers has shown he can hold up against good secondaries, whereas Eldridge has struggled with that in AAA. That should improve with time. Eldridge has some clear edges in raw ability, like bat speed and size. But Devers is a smart hitter, and smaller levers come with their own advantages. Eldridge should be an All-Star, and I buy him becoming a top-30 bat by 2027 or 2028.

Tier 55 FV (Above average starter, 2.5-3.5 WAR)

2. SS Josuar Gonzalez (18.5Y): Gonzalez has incredible quick-burst athleticism. It shows up at short, where his range is as good as anyone in pro ball, and his arm is solid too. He should run a well above-average BABIP because he beats out 70%–80% out-probability grounders at an elite rate. When he gets his pitch, he can drive the ball to the gaps and has enough juice to knock a few out.

   There are two main concerns, and they’re why I don’t have him up in the 60 FV tier. First is contact quality on pitches on the outer half, especially down. The swing path breaks down there and balls get driven into the ground, though I’m not sure if the data would say otherwise. On anything that isn’t middle-in, the swing doesn’t look quite as good. I also didn’t get a good enough look at him from the right side.

   The second concern is physicality. I want to see him get through a full minor league season and see how he holds up. If he gets stronger and/or bigger, what does that mean for his speed? If he can ease those concerns, I can see a Masyn Winn type of outcome, maybe a 3 to 3.5 win player. That said, a Joey Ortiz or Otto Lopez type also wouldn’t surprise me, so I ended up hedging a bit lower.

Tier 50 FV (Average everyday starter, 1.8-2.4 WAR)

3. 2B Luis Hernández (17.4Y): I wrote extensively about Hernández here. Putting him in this tier is a projection of his major league production, not a reflection of where he’ll land on major publications’ lists a year from now. I expect he’ll get plenty of top-50 prospect consideration this winter. He should dominate in the ACL and Cal League in 2026. My review explains why I don’t think that should materially affect his projection.

4. 2B/3B Jhonny Level (19.0Y): Level is interesting because he doesn’t really align with either Gonzalez’s or Hernández’s profile. He’s only seven months older than Gonzalez, physically mature like Hernández, a switch-hitter like Gonzalez, a better athlete than Hernández, and has more feel for contact quality than Gonzalez.

   I don’t think Level stays at shortstop at the highest level, though I can squint and see it with Hernández despite the athleticism gap. Level also doesn’t have as good a bat path as Hernández. What you have, then, is a third baseman or second baseman with a strong arm, mixed feel for fielding at short, real thump in the bat from both sides, but a swing that is not yet geared to fully take advantage of it, and enough athleticism to think he can figure it out.

5. COF Trevor Cohen (22.5Y): Cohen is one of my bigger deviations from the consensus. On paper, he’s not usually the type of player I like. He hit four total home runs in college. Against end-of-season A-ball arms, he had five extra-base hits in 28 games, with a 60% ground-ball rate and a 15% fly-ball rate. There is nothing especially solid about the profile if he ends up as just a defensively average center fielder.

   Despite all that, he just looks really good at the plate. From the trigger, to the quick hands through the zone, to the compact bat, good bat speed, and feel for the barrel, it all stands out. The ball carries a little more than you expect off his bat, so maybe there is some backspin ability in there too. The hip extension and weight transfer look fluid. It looks like the swing of an above-average major league bat. That comes with good strikeout and walk rates, plus a good first step that should help his BABIP.

   I’d have him higher if you told me he’ll play above-average defense in center field. Otherwise, he’ll need to start catching the ball farther out front to get more lift and generate more power. I think he can do that. The bat path is there, and that’s what gives me a path to believing he can be an average major league corner outfielder.

Tier 45 FV (Higher end role players, 1.2-1.7 WAR)

Guys who on a rate basis are average and maybe even better, but benefit from selective usage, which decreases total WAR production

6. SP/LHP Luis De La Torre (22.6Y): I see De La Torre and Trevor McDonald as the only two pitchers in the organization right now who project to provide real major league starting value. I was honestly shocked that both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline ranked him 17th on their top-30 lists.

   A low release height and good extension are strong ingredients for creating a tough fastball angle, and the pitch sits consistently in the mid-90s. He has a two-plane breaking slider that works to both sides, plus the arm speed to think a changeup will come. There is also enough feel for the slider to believe other hard breaking-ball shapes could be developed. The arm path is easy enough, and the mechanics are fluid enough, that I think above-average command is a realistic outcome. That is a pretty good mix of ability.

   I don’t have him in the tier above this one because I want to see how his body and arm hold up over a full season at an affiliate. He’s on Eugene’s roster now. He doesn’t have a lot of mileage on the arm, which is a good thing, but he has made major stuff gains over the past few years, and in a smaller frame that could be putting a lot of strain on him.

   He is Rule 5 eligible this offseason. If healthy, I think he’ll look good enough to be added to the 40-man roster. As it stands, I see someone who can give you average to slightly above-average results in a workload of under 140 innings per season.

7. CF Dakota Jordan (22.10Y): In terms of quick-burst athleticism, Jordan is not far behind Josuar Gonzalez, which is pretty hard to process given the size gap between them. That alone raises the floor. At the plate, he brings power with every swing, but right now it does not really play to the pitches he’s swinging at, especially in the upper half of the zone, where it leads to a lot of negative launch angle. Still, he has already shown an ability to make positive adjustments, so there may be more in there. He’ll keep getting chances. It would be good to see him log 500 plate appearances and show steady growth. The weight-to-speed ratio is a real indicator of breakout talent.

8. SP/RHP Trevor McDonald (25.1Y): When I was putting together the top 10 in my head, McDonald was someone I already knew well because I’ve believed in him for a long time and because of how useful he looked in his brief major league stint. I thought he was a lock for the top five and a 50 FV grade.

   I’ve always believed there was more to the fastball than he has shown. It got hit in AAA, and the stuff metrics don’t love it, but I thought it played more deceptively than it looked because of McDonald’s unusual release. The reason he ended up down here, though, is that when I saw him in the spring a few weeks ago at the end of camp, with a good live look, the fastball didn’t look good at all. Those are the sample sizes I’m working with on these reviews, by the way. I may have been fooling myself a bit there. The Giants’ hesitancy to use him makes more sense to me now.

   He does have the ability to create some interesting and effective breaking-ball shapes, and maybe they can find something with the fastball that works better with his arm angle, the way Roupp did. I think he’ll throw enough strikes and get enough strikeouts to stick around in the majors as someone who gives you 15 to 20 starts per year for a few seasons.

Tier 40+ FV (Platoon/Utility, fringe MLB SP, High leverage RP)

9. C/UTIL Jesus Rodriguez (23.11Y): A lot is made of his swing, and yes, the setup is a bit unusual, but when it comes down to it, he is on time, with fluid weight transfer and enough loft to drive the ball. He makes good enough swing decisions, though he could benefit from cutting down the chase. He is still in position to make some adjustments, catch a few more balls out front, and tap into his average raw power. He looks like a good athlete and moves well. I haven’t really gotten a feel for the defensive ability, so while I think the bat is fun and interesting, I’ve hedged by putting him down here, but still above a few others who are more highly rated. If he can play average defense at catcher and second while giving you a 100–110 wRC+ bat and average running, that’s a 50 FV player. The defense is the key for me. An average bat that ends up below average at multiple positions is not an everyday player on a good team. We need to bring back these type of players.

10. 2B Gavin Kilen (22.0Y): Kilen is another victim of my live-look reversals. Just a few weeks ago I wrote the below:

There isn’t a ton of upside here, but an everyday regular is possible, provided there is enough power to keep the slugging over .400 and enough athleticism to keep the non-bat skills at an above-average level.

So why is he down here? Seeing him in person, he just doesn’t look like he has major league physicality right now. That stands out more given that he has already spent three years in well-run college programs, including a year at Vitello’s Tennessee, which has a great reputation for getting results in the weight room. I also don’t think he gets his weight all the way through the lead leg. It just doesn’t look fully in sync. He does have good, strong hands and squares up fastballs. There is enough athleticism for him to be fine at second, but I don’t think he’ll hit enough for a regular role.

Note: I wrote the above before Kilen’s season debut. He has had a great few games since then, so this placement and writeup already look terrible. I’m preparing for yet another entry in my personal “you don’t know ball” folder.

11. COF Bo Davidson (23.8Y): He’s a great story and a real testament to the work he has put in over the past few years. He’s on a trajectory to be notably better than the role I see for him here relative to where the major publications have him, so keep that in mind. I’m a bit lower because if he ends up as a corner outfielder, and below average in center, the bat looks like a stretch to me for an everyday role.

    The swing has a somewhat loopy path into the launch position, and I think he’ll struggle against above-average major league stuff because of it. But he can hit enough bombs against other pitching to be a low-end platoon bat who gives you solid defense in the corners.

12. RP/LHP Jacob Bresnahan (20.9Y): I really do like Bresnahan despite having him down in the teens. I have a high-leverage projection on him, and the combination of proximity and closer-to-average athleticism ultimately makes him more volatile, with a lower ceiling. The relief future comes from the lack of feel for a breaking ball, a changeup that looks better as a chase pitch, and below-average control. I don’t see the control getting to average. What he does have is an amazing fastball that might not even be fully optimized yet. From a lefty and a supinator, I can see a good two-pitch mix here and a path to a key bullpen role.

    If he takes physical steps to become a bit more dynamic and finds a good breaking-ball shape, that would push him to a 50 FV for me.

13. RP/RHP Keyner Martinez (21.7Y): Similar to Bresnahan, but as a righty, and with the breaking ball and fastball flipped. Despite the good velocity, the fastball doesn’t really stand out to me. I’m sure it plays well enough against complex league bats, but visually it looks pretty pedestrian. The feel for the breaking ball is interesting, though, and gives him some runway to find a few different looks and carve out a late-inning role. The changeup looks a bit firm and unnatural, even if it did get whiffs in the handful of looks I got. He also looks a bit maxed out and a bit stiff, and he doesn’t move fluidly enough for me to think starter, even with a better fastball.

14. RP/LHP Carson Whisenhunt (25.5Y): Put him in the bullpen, where he can hold his fastball velocity and have it play just enough for the changeup to do the real damage. If I believed he could throw more strikes and be more consistent outing to outing, I’d have him above Bresnahan. His best changeups are in the conversation for the best pitch in the organization, and I respect that. I don’t think there’s much chance of a starter here. He could be a mirror-image version of Keaton Winn.

15. COF/3B Parks Harber (24.6Y): Interesting athlete. Big guy who can run a bit, with a thick lower half. He hits the ball hard, but often lets it travel deep, which leads to a lot of opposite-field contact. The flat bat path helps him create hard contact, but it also kills loft. I’m not sure about the swing decisions. For someone with his experience, and against the type of pitching you see in A-ball, he still seems to guess a fair amount. He moves well enough that I can see average defense in a corner outfield spot, and maybe not terrible defense at third base. If he hits lefties enough with that profile, there’s a decent career in there.

Tier 40 FV (End of bench, middle relief)

16. RP/RHP Argenis Cayama (19.6Y): I’m lower than others on him mainly because of the lack of physical projection and my lack of belief in the breaking-ball feel. My looks came during his time in San Jose, after nearly 50 innings in the ACL, so he was probably not at his best. But I don’t think I saw a single good breaking ball in roughly two dozen looks, whether in feel or shape. The changeup looks better.

    The sinker is interesting, and the delivery is fluid and repeatable. He looks like a good athlete, so above-average control is possible. It’s a bit of an odd profile for me: a guy who throws strikes, but whose overall mix is not all that interesting right now, while also being very young and athletic.

17. COF Carlos Gutierrez (21.7Y): I liked having these two back to back because they both show some precocious, advanced ability, in this case feel for contact, but neither looks physically robust enough right now to project for a bigger role. I also don’t think Gutierrez is going to be an above-average center fielder. So you’re looking at someone who lacks physicality, has struggled to stay on the field, and has a poor batted-ball profile. The bat path is fine, but it’s very handsy and doesn’t really look geared to drive the ball. He can hit, though, so we’ll see how he develops physically.

18. RP/RHP Blade Tidwell (24.9Y): Really good one-pitch arm, though I’m not sure the command is there for a high-leverage role. The fastball, in both versions, has below-average shape and just looks too generic. I don’t think there’s any chance of him starting. His misses also seem to get elevated, and in the majors those will go out. The sweeper is good enough to make him a major leaguer.

19. MIF Jean Carlos Sio (22.0Y): I can’t say I ever thought much of Sio. He mostly just seemed like a scrawny guy who played hard. So I was surprised by how dynamic he looks now. He has a strong lower half, but still moves well, with some wiry strength that he really maximizes at contact. He sprays line drives, doesn’t strike out much, and has more raw power than you would expect. I don’t really have a good feel for the defensive potential, but he moves well enough that I can see some utility value at second base and in center field. There are some good elements here.

20. CF Scott Bandura (24.8Y): If I had done this list two months ago, Bandura would have been in the latter half. Video from last month showed a more physically mature player, and that bumped his offensive tools for me from upper-minors quality to fringe major leaguer. Pair that with good defensive value and you can see a pretty straightforward path to a bench outfield role. I still don’t see the fluidity or bat path to think he’ll hold up regularly against quality major league stuff.

21. RP/RHP Reid Worley (19.9Y): There isn’t a whole lot of video on Worley. I really liked what I did see, though. Good athleticism, stable on the mound, easy arm action, and some feel for spin. I do have concerns about the projection. Even at 6’2”, I’m not convinced he’ll hold up as a starter. I also just don’t have enough information on how the fastball plays to project a higher-value relief role yet. I see Worley and De La Rosa as the next group of young arms who look interesting now, and we just have to wait and see how it comes together.

22. RP/LHP Carlos De La Rosa (18.4Y): De La Rosa’s build stands out. He has a strong lower half and enough fluidity to think he’ll stay in the rotation for a while. He has shown some good carry on the fastball, and while the breaking-ball shape is still rudimentary, the feel for it is encouraging. A well-built lefty with athleticism and two pitches that give him a real path to a role.

23. RP/RHP Josh Bostick (24.5Y): There is a quality fastball here, one I can see him getting decent results from while using it fairly often. I’m just not sure there is much else. The slider flashes an interesting shape at times, but he throws too many uncompetitive ones. The changeup doesn’t look natural, and hitters seem to pick it up. He’s not a particularly strong build despite being 6’4”, so I’d have some physicality concerns, though he did throw more than 100 innings in each of the last two years. He’s out for 2026 with an Achilles injury. Maybe he can use the rehab time to add mass and clean up the breaking ball.

24. RP/LHP Juan Sanchez (24.4Y): I do like Sanchez’s two-pitch mix. I think both pitches can play at the major league level, with the changeup standing out more than the fastball. It’s an interesting angle. He’s not higher because of the inconsistency in both the control and the quality of the stuff. There are just too many bad misses for me to trust him in a regular major league role right now. He’s also coming back from Tommy John surgery, so we’ll see how he looks in a couple of months.

    Tier 35+ FV (Fringe big leaguer)

    This tier is made up of guys I like, but have to hedge against based on what they are right now. If there is one tier where the players could truly be in any order and I’d be fine with it, it’s this one. All pitchers from here on are projected as relievers.

25. SS Maui Ahuna (24.0Y): Ahuna is a bit younger than I thought, given that he was drafted in 2023. He has struggled to stay on the field, logging just 63 games in 2025 and 34 in 2024. He looks stronger now, though, and more able to tap into some of the things he already did well. He has good balance through the swing from the left side, which helps him find the barrel at a good rate. I think having better plans at the plate would help the strikeout rate. In the field, he can play shortstop in the majors, just get the arm right. So if he hits a bit and plays decent defense, there is something here if he can get a ton of reps this year.

26. CIF Charlie Szykowny (25.9Y): Same draft as Ahuna. I saw him live in 2024 when he was with San Jose. He stands out physically and moves pretty well for his size. There is some stiffness in the field, so it is probably a first base profile, but he can hit a bit and gets a good angle on quality pitches, so maybe he can start knocking some out. Just a power, better prep = better decisions kind of bet for me.

27. RHP Braxton Roxby (27.0Y): This is the year for Roxby to break through. If he can find just enough control, his decent two-pitch mix can play in a middle-relief role. He creates a tough angle on the fastball with average velocity and some run. It plays up in the zone. The hard cutter looked ok in the spring, and I like the big breaking ball at 82-83 mph. He is the type of arm I would want a couple of in a cheap bullpen if the control were two ticks better. He has logged 60 innings in each of the last two seasons, so there is some durability.

28. RHP Yunior Marte (22.7Y): Big guy, 93-95 fastball with more in the tank, a vertical slider he can manipulate, and a splitter that is rough but gets ugly swings when he lands it. He had not pitched much before making 19 starts in A-ball in 2025. The fastball is iffy, though it does look like he gets down the mound pretty well. The slider has some interesting potential, and his feel for it stands out. There is also something about the delivery that seems to help the splitter. Physically, there is still some work to do to stay athletic. I see him as a below-average athlete, so not in the tier above, but he can rip off some breakers, and maybe there is some chance he finds an offspeed pitch as well and can log more than middle-relief innings.

29. RHP Liam Simon (25.5Y): He has not pitched much since being drafted in 2022. When he has, control has been a big issue. But he throws 100 routinely and has feel for a nasty breaking ball. This would be a real player development win if they can get everything lined up.

30. RHP Alberto Laroche (20.4Y): He can do a lot with his pitch mix, but nothing really stood out to me from his DSL stint. The sinker gets some run, he has average velocity already, and there is probably more to come. I am not sure how much projection is there. Some advanced ability, arm strength, arm speed, and an interesting angle. I will be looking for him when I check in on the ACL.

31. SS Lorenzo Meola (22.3Y): He should probably be higher, maybe as high as 18, and I would not quibble too much. There are things to like about the swing. He gets forward fast and generates more pop than you would think. I am not sure the approach is there, and the quality of contact points is not great. It sounds like he has a future at short, which is why I should probably have him higher. I just think he will not make enough contact.

32. LHP Joe Whitman (24.6Y): Lefty with a great slider. The fastball seems pretty hittable. Command is inconsistent from outing to outing. The athleticism is probably below average. I think it is time for the bullpen.

33. 1B Victor Bericoto (24.4Y): Bericoto continues to surprise me by getting a bit better every year. I do not think there is enough athleticism for much more, though I have thought that pretty much every year since he signed seven years ago. He can hit average and below-average stuff a long way, so I can see a career for him in Asia. He will make some money, but a right-handed hitter who is best at first base or DH and can get overmatched by good stuff has a very narrow path to a role.

34. RHP Gerelmi Maldonado (22.3Y): His stuff grades out well, but I think I am a full grade below that on both the fastball and slider. He has not really thrown strikes, and I would not bet on that changing enough. Maybe he can just throw sliders all day with elite velocity in the bullpen.

35. RHP Marques Johnson (25.9Y): Johnson was not a name I had really noticed before catching him in the spring. I think he needs a bit more velocity and more strikes, but the mix is fine enough. The sinker, sweeper, and cutter all look distinct from one another and sequence well.

36. DH Nate Furman (24.8Y): Interesting mix of skills at the plate. He swings only at his pitches, and it is a let-me-get-my-money’s-worth type of approach. I am not sure he has the raw juice to consistently drive balls into the gaps. There does not appear to be any defensive value either. Maybe an old-school pinch-hitter type, which the Giants could use right now, by the way.

37. RHP Will Bednar (25.9Y): The guy with possibly the best fastball in the org should probably be higher than this. But the slider, which looked good during a rough year in San Jose, seems to have been lost. He also has trouble corralling the fastball. I just do not know if he can take any more steps forward here.

38. C Adrián Sugastey (23.5Y): Sugastey, in 2026, is now in his third stint in Double-A, which is never a good sign for a major league career. He has shown some improvement with the bat, but nowhere near enough. He has made strides defensively, and his strong arm, which has been his best tool since signing, really showed off in 2025. He is athletic enough that the receiving should also improve enough to get to average. I have him this high because I think the swing is there. It just needs to get shorter again, and he needs to mature physically enough to start driving the ball more. A better plan at the plate and swinging at better pitches would help too.

39. LHP Jordan Gottesman (23.7Y): At the time this list was finalized, I just did not have much video on Gottesman to get a good read. I liked the little bit I saw, so I put him up here. He gets down the mound, seems pretty fluid in the delivery, threw strikes in college, and he is a lefty. I see he has already appeared for San Jose in 2026, but I have not had time to watch that yet.

40. RHP Logan Martin (24.8Y): A guy I had no idea was in the Giants org until two weeks ago. That is the level of work you are getting here. Anyway, there is some good carry on the fastball at 93-94. I am not sure there is much of a breaking ball yet, but there is some feel for a changeup that gets good fade. He moves well enough. There is something here if he can find a little gloveside wiggle.

    Tier 35 FV (Maybe get a cup of coffee)

41. RHP Manuel Mercedes (23.6Y): It feels borderline irrational to have him at the top of this group. He has been in the org since 2021 and has never really thrown strikes consistently or generated strikeouts. Does he get a ton of groundballs, then? He used to, but now it is more just above average. He has generally just been hit around the past couple of years. I still think that with his arm-angle experimentation, he will find the one that allows the full potential of the arsenal to come through. A high-velo fastball with a lot of run from a tough angle, plus a breaking ball that complements it. He has the pieces to be a lot better than he has been. Hope this is the year it comes together.

42. RHP Alexander Fuentes (21.2Y): Big guy who seems to be figuring things out. Fastball with velocity and some feel for spin. I do not think he is much of an athlete, so let’s see if the control comes.

43. RHP Luke Mensik (18.8Y): On paper, Mensik should be pretty close to Worley, who is at 21. He is a year younger, had a similar bonus, similar listed physical attributes, and some feel for a breaking ball. I think the gap is in athleticism and just the level of outlier traits on the breaking ball. Worley looks a bit smoother in the delivery and I think projects for better control. Mensik, I think, has a bit better chance of being a starter, but I am not sure he moves all that well overall.

44. C Santiago Camacho (19.2Y): I have liked his swing since before he signed. This is just a bet on that. He gets good loft and transfers weight well. He did not have a great overall season in the ACL, but he did manage the strikeouts and hit for some pull-side pop.

45. 3B Walker Martin (22.1Y): Drafted in 2023 as an older high school player. He had major strikeout issues in 2024 in San Jose and the ACL. He returned to San Jose and did ok. He cut the strikeouts down, walked a good bit, and hit for some power. He has the components to take a leap. He has the raw bat speed, shows athleticism at the plate, the bat path is not bad, and he knows the zone. I would like to see him get a bit more aggressive early in counts and tap into the raw power. He has the arm for third base and moves ok for second.

46. RP/LHP Reggie Crawford (25.4Y): This is the lowest I will have him as long as he is in the org, because he is only a few months of good health away from adding value to the major league club. He can do what Erik Miller currently does, and that is more than a lot of the guys above him on this list can or will provide. But with two shoulder surgeries, we may never see him on the mound again, so he is down here.

47. C Jancel Villarroel (21.2Y): I really wanted to put him in the tier above this one, but I just do not have a feel for his ability to stay at catcher. He shares some of the things I like about Jesús Rodríguez. He gets his hands into a good position at contact, there is a desire to lift, and he swings with thunder, so I believe he will hit for some power.

48. CF Jose Ortiz (21.1Y): He could easily be two tiers higher just with his glove and arm in center field if he had shown better health since being drafted in 2023. He is not half bad at the plate, though I do not think he hits for any power and will be BABIP dependent.

49. 3B Sabin Ceballos (23.7Y): A great glove at third is a solid foundation. He should be better at the plate than he has been. The swing is a bit long, and tightening that up could perhaps help him against a wider variety of pitch mixes. I am not sure the raw bat speed is there for him to have much upside.

50. COF Cam Maldonado (22.4Y): There are some tools here for the development team to work with. He just looks too much like a mess at the plate for me to believe he can get to them. Not really fluid, not a compact swing, just limited in where he can attack.

51. C Drew Cavanaugh (24.2Y): My rough initial list had him much higher based just on what he has done so far. But after watching him, I am not sure that swing really plays against even Triple-A stuff, and I do not think he has much bat speed either. Good arm, not sure whether he is a good receiver or not, so maybe there is a really low-end backup path here if he can continue to run into a few.

52. RHP Niko Mazza (24.1Y): There is something here, just need to see if it comes together. He creates a tough angle on the fastball and can really spin a slider. I am not sure he is enough of an athlete to hope for better command.

53. LHP Leandro Rodriguez (20.4Y): Strong lower half and stable through the delivery. A lefty with good velocity is not a bad starting point. The breaking ball still looks rudimentary.

54. RHP Tyler Vogel (25.4Y): A guy who would have made some money 15 years ago. Now he just looks like a generic profile that every Triple-A team has three or four of in relief. The release height is interesting if he can get a couple more ticks on the fastball. There is some feel for breaking balls, but nothing really stood out from what he was throwing in 2025. I did catch a glimpse of an appearance he made in 2026, and the changeup looked interesting.

55. COF Lisbel Diaz (20.8Y): You always need to have a decent grip on young players with a raw power-speed combination, so he is on here despite me not really liking much of what he does at the plate. Flat bat path, does not really get anything from the lower half, just a handsy swing without the innate barrel ability to make that work. He does make contact and does a few other things well.

56. C Junior Barajas (21.8Y): Barajas was one of the players I struggled with most. I have had him all over this list at different points. I kept coming back to him and never felt fully content with my impression. There is physical projection here, bloodlines, and enough raw bat speed to think he should be in the 40 FV tier. But the swing has a lot of components I do not like. The bat path is going to generate a lot of ground balls, and I think he will have trouble driving the ball against quality stuff. The weight transfer is late, almost like Nate Furman, and that will not leave much room to adjust against high-quality breaking balls. I expect he will do quite well in San Jose. I just want to see how it holds up beyond that.

57. RHP Chen-Hsun Lee (24.2Y): Probably should be lower considering the age and the limited time on the field so far. But he does have some fastball velocity and good carry, plus some feel for spin. He is a below-average athlete, so time is ticking on whether he will be able to figure things out before he starts to stiffen up more.

58. SS Anthony Marquez (19.6Y): If there were one player in the system I could magically add 20 pounds of good weight to, it would be Marquez. Good instincts in the field, athletic, and a fine enough arm for shortstop. At the plate, he hits the ball harder than you would expect for the build. I like the bat path, though it could use some work shortening up. As I write this, I am having second thoughts about not moving him up a tier.

59. CF Jonah Cox (24.8Y): I do not really like much about how he looks at the plate, but he looks like a good athlete. He clearly runs well, with nearly 60 steals in each of the last two years. I am assuming that with that speed he can stick in center field as well. He is listed over 200 pounds, and I have a personal rule that guys over that weight with 70 speed need to be on a prospect list no matter what else is in the profile.

60. 2B Yulian Barreto (18.6Y): He can hit a bit and has a decent approach at the plate. I see him as a 30 athlete, though, and I am not sure the bat path is going to generate much power. He needs a lot of work on the body, so there is some potential from that angle. Probably first base/DH if he continues on the current path.

61. RHP R.J. Dabovich (27.2Y): He has been beset by injuries over the past few years. I was a believer that he would stick in the majors before all of that. The fastball still looks like it has carry, and not many guys, even now, throw true curveballs above 85 mph. It is a hard pitch to do much with when he lands it. Have to see where the command and velocity are. The fastball shape, at its best, is effective, but he used to lose it pretty often.

62. RHP Cole Hillier (25.3Y): He checks off a few boxes for me even though it looks like the team has handled him as more of an org guy. Outlier release height, some decent run on the fastball, and the changeup is not half bad even if it is not used much. He needs to take a step forward with the stuff. More velocity and run on the sinker is a major need.

63. LHP Jack Choate (24.11Y): Similar to Hillier. Low-ish release height, big extension, funky delivery. But 88 on the fastball is not enough, and I do not see any secondary that gets him over the top. Still, adding velocity in the mid-20s is not unheard of.

64. RHP Drake George (24.6Y): Had TJ in 2025 and should see him at some point in 2026. Good fastball/curveball combo, with the latter being too much for lower-level hitters. He is a below-average athlete and the delivery is not especially fluid, so there is some risk he never gets to the upper minors.

65. LHP John Michael Bertrand (28.1Y): He will not embarrass himself if given the opportunity in the majors, which is why he is on here. Nothing about the stuff really stands out, but he generally keeps the ball on the ground and has just enough secondaries to keep hitters from sitting on a pedestrian fastball.

66. LHP Greg Farone (23.11Y): Feels like I will regret not having him about 20 spots higher. Fastball into the mid-90s with some movement and feel for location. I just do not think there is much else here right now.

67. RHP Nien-Hsi Yang (19.7Y): Decent velocity for his age and gets good carry. Some feel for spin. I am not sure he is much of an athlete, but there is lots of projection and time for him to get more dynamic.

68. SS Aeverson Arteaga (23.0Y): I think he is an underrated player development failure over the past few years. He really should be hitting better than he has in his career. There is some raw power here, the swing path is fine, and nothing looks horrific other than the slash line. The defense seems to have slipped a bit over the years, but he would not be overmatched at shortstop in the majors. Just disappointing to see how his career has stalled out. Still, he is only 23, a full year younger than teammate Maui Ahuna, and getting a second crack at Double-A. I hope he had a productive winter.

69. LHP Nick Zwack (27.8Y): Effective slider that will play in the majors. The fastball has a pretty generic shape, and it does not help that he has a higher release point on it than on his other pitches. Maybe if he can tighten that up, the shape will play better.

70. RHP Sam Bower (24.11Y): Bower made his pro debut this year after being drafted in 2022. I really liked him out of the draft, so this is partly a pick based on that. He showed a three-pitch mix at the time, with a nice fluid delivery that projected for command. He is probably a reliever now. Hope he gets through the year.

71. RHP Hunter Dryden (23.9Y): Just based on the height, 5’9”, and the velocity, I would have had him higher. But after looking at video, he negates the height advantage with a higher-than-expected release point, which makes the fastball shape more generic. I did not get a clear read on the future of the breaking ball. Looking forward to filling in the picture on him this season.

72. RHP Fernando Vasquez (24.4Y): Vasquez has missed a lot of time over the past few years, returning in 2025. Like Dryden, he brings good velocity from a shorter frame, 5’10”, but unlike Dryden he does have a lower release height, which gives him one of the tougher fastball angles in the system. He also shows some ability to spin a slider. I am not sure there is any chance of even average control here, so unless he shows it for an extended stretch, he is more of a guy to keep an eye on.

73. 2B Diego Velasquez (22.6Y): Probably too low on him considering the age and the solid overall performance in Double-A over the past two years. This is just a bet that a bad athlete with a bad body is not really going anywhere. The swing also is not something I think can handle major league stuff. I just do not buy the profile unless he really gets it together physically.

74. COF Rayner Arias (19.11Y): I just did not have the heart to leave him off the list completely considering how good he looked a couple of years ago. Injuries have taken a toll. His time in San Jose in 2025 was pretty ugly, and I have not seen many players look that overmatched at that level. Maybe with a healthy year and a full offseason without rehab, he can show flashes of his younger self.

75. RHP Cody Delvecchio (22.2Y): Liked him out of the draft. The fastball is an interesting look. I just have not really seen much beyond that to project.

76. CF Andy Polanco (20.11Y): Great athlete with a projectable build. The bat path is pretty rough, long and loopy, but he can put a charge into a ball when he catches it. I am not sure the plate discipline is there either. Just a guy to keep an eye on because of the physical tools.

77. RHP Mitch White (26.4Y): Not the Mitch White you are thinking of. This one was a minor league free agent signing this offseason and has zero affiliate experience. Assigned to Double-A, so the Giants are showing some confidence. The stuff definitely pops, mid-to-upper 90s and some feel for a changeup.

78. RHP Austin Strickland (23.10Y): Acquired for Joey Bart a few years ago. Gets three fine pitches into the zone. I am not sure any of them are major league quality, but the sinker is interesting.

79. COF Djean Macares (17.11Y): Macares received a $1 million bonus, second most behind Josuar Gonzalez in that class. He has always been more of an on-field ability bet than a raw tools one. That was not on display in the DSL in 2025, which is why he is heading back there. He really needs a lot of physical work to get stronger and more dynamic as an athlete. That said, the swing components are there and he appears to have decent enough bat speed. It would help him a lot if he could play center field, but despite the instincts, he is probably a corner outfielder at higher levels.

80. LHP Braydon Risley (21.0Y): I usually save the last spot on the list for guys with very little information available, but something about them catches my eye. Reyes Moronta, RIP, was 80 on my first-ever list. Juan Sanchez was another one. Risley was a JUCO pick late in the 2025 draft and signed for $100K. Athletic, good build, fastball in the low 90s, some feel for a 12-6 curveball, and good extension. There are some interesting elements here, so he is my pick to click!

Final Notes

• Despite going 80 deep, there were still a few players I wanted to find a spot for and couldn’t. Some of those names are Esmerlin Vinicio, Tyler Switalski, Robert Hipwell, Dario Reynoso, Alix Hernandez, and Kendry Castro.

• I wrote about the industry’s evaluation of the Giants’ pitching development apparatus in my last article. If you didn’t read it, the basic takeaway is that no one is especially impressed. That shows up in my list too. I just didn’t see many arms I strongly believe can start. It’s mostly relievers up and down the system, and there aren’t many truly impressive breaking balls either. So this is a group with a lot to prove. On the hitting side, there are a number of interesting profiles, with some of it in the upper minors. Beyond Eldridge, I expect Rodriguez and Davidson to play useful roles at some point this year. I don’t have a strong enough read on farm systems across baseball to say exactly where this one ranks. But given the talent at the top, and the likelihood that a good portion of that group has strong 2026 seasons, it’s reasonable to see the system in the 8–13 range. The fourth pick in the draft could push it closer to the 5–8 range.

• Thank you all for reading. This was a lot of fun to put together. I had hoped to get it out last week, but life gets busy. If I had more time, I would watch a lot more of each player and probably do a better job. I just tried to find a middle ground between getting it done and feeling okay about the effort.

• I wanted to appreciate Roger Munter’s Youtube channel, which has a big collection of videos, especially from the past month, and gave me refreshed looks at a lot of the players on this list.

• This is probably the last post from me for a while, unless I can find the energy to put together the endless thoughts I have about the major league club. If not, I’m planning to write a few posts leading up to the draft, focused mainly on the first-round pick, and maybe a couple of later rounds as well, along with some draft boards.

Go Giants!

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This is a look back at the Giants’ 2025 season and the broader direction of the organization as Buster Posey’s first year in charge comes into focus. Some of what happened was encouraging: the Giants made major talent additions, showed a willingness to absorb long-term payroll, and created a few plausible paths toward a stronger roster. But most of this piece is about the things that felt more revealing beneath the surface, draft philosophy, roster construction, player development, organizational process, ownership priorities, and the uneasy sense that the Giants are choosing a riskier organizational path, and that puts a lot on them to prove it works. This is not meant as a condemnation. It is more an attempt to sort through where the Giants may have conviction, where they may have blind spots, and what will actually define this era over the next 18 months.

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MLB Draft

In the 2025 MLB Draft, these are the top five bonuses the Giants handed out to their class:

1R - Gavin Kilen - $5.25M
3R - Trevor Cohen - $850K
9R - Reid Worley - $750K
4R - Lorenzo Meola - $655K
17R - Luke Mensik - $485K

Gavin Kilen: I liked a couple of others who were available at the Kilen pick, with RHP Kyson Witherspoon (went 15th for $5M) and SS Kayson Cunningham (18th, $4.6M) being the notable ones. Kilen’s metrics are well rounded for the most part, but nothing stands out. He made a lot of contact, both in the zone and out of the zone, revealing a bit of a lack of selectivity in his approach. He improved from seven walks in 234 PA in his sophomore season with Louisville (3 BB%) to 12% as a junior at Tennessee. It’s a swing designed to hit fastballs hard for extra bases and survive against secondaries. There is pressure on his ability to consistently hit line drives to the gaps, because I don’t see much opportunity for pull-side power here, nor enough raw power to drive balls out to deep LCF to RCF. He had just two extra-base hits in 43 PA in San Jose in his pro debut (health status during that period is not clear). I believe he’s largely seen as a second baseman at the highest level. There isn’t a ton of upside here, but an everyday regular is possible, provided there is enough power to keep the slugging over .400 and enough athleticism to keep the non-bat skills at an above-average level.

Trevor Cohen: Brian Recca on him: “Over the past three years with Rutgers, Cohen has been one of the highest contact hitters in NCAA with a contact rate hovering in the 88-90% range each year.” Interesting player, but a tough profile (AVG-dependent COF/CF). The Giants have to believe there is some projection for power here to give him $850K.

Reid Worley: Really like what I see. Good athleticism, stable on the mound, easy arm action. Feel for spin. I do have concerns about his projection, though. He is 6’2, and I’m not sure he’ll hold up as a SP. I have him mentally in the 18-20 range on the prospect list. Commitment to Kennesaw State.

Luke Mensik: I like him too. Better projection. But I haven’t been able to see a lot of video of him.

Side note on this draft: I saw a lot of “increased CH usage, decreased FB, hitters struggled against CH” in the college SP draft reports. I’m skeptical of improved performance through this adjustment. Amateurs and lower-level pros seem to struggle relatively more against a decent CH than against other decent pitches. Less gap in the majors.

Stuff I was wrong about

I panned the Justin Verlander signing more than halfway through the year, pointing out that there were quite a few pitchers who had better outcomes and came at a cheaper price. But Verlander turned that around with a strong final stretch.

Dominic Smith was a lot more productive than I expected. I did not see why the Giants gave him an opportunity. He had below-average pop in AAA and poor swing decisions. Despite his relatively productive year, he only managed to land a minor league deal this winter.

Player similarity

I’ve been building out a player similarity finder based on swing path, contact quality, and approach. Jung Hoo Lee has two fascinating comps: Geraldo Perdomo and Luis Arraez. Based on video, to align closer with Perdomo, Lee needs to be a bit flatter through the zone while catching balls out front more. That should hopefully lead to more line drives and fewer ground balls. Lee adding some strength to go along with that will help him rack up the doubles and perhaps get to 15 HR. When I was initially building it out, Lee’s closest comp was 2024-25 Arraez, which isn’t great, but Perdomo is an interesting path as well and makes me less concerned about holding onto him and his profile as a corner outfielder.

Drew Gilbert, on the other hand... no one matches up to him well, which is a bit concerning. Tyler Heineman is the closest match. Gilbert has a challenging thing to work on: delay rotation enough so that when the barrel gets to the ball, it’s still on its upward arc. Barrel through the ball instead of across it. I just don’t see an average major league bat here, but with his good defense he can carve out an up-and-down type of profile. I don’t know if McCray will have much of a career, but I think he’s a better bet than Gilbert.

Buster Posey

• When I think about Posey’s first year running baseball operations, I land closer to disheartened than encouraged, though not fully at the deep end of the pool. He made two big moves happen with Adames and Devers, and I give him real credit for that. What bothered me was most of the rest. Contrary to the high-profile nature of those moves, they were “easy” in the sense that it was all about absorbing payroll. Once they were comfortable adding that liability, the actual acquisition of the talent wasn’t hard. It showed fortitude to lock in that much payroll for that extended of a period. I respect that a lot. What I didn’t like was most of the rest. The front office struggled to maximize the margins and let multiple obvious gaps fester, and ultimately that was the difference between the playoffs and where they ended up. This offseason is a better picture of what we can expect from this front office going forward in terms of grand offseason plan design. They will patch holes while trying to play a high-variance game with them. They will prioritize moving from a D to a C grade for an everyday player far more than moving from an F to a C for the bullpen. They are willing to part with prospects, but just weren’t in a position to maximize what they had this offseason. That is where the focus will be for the next 18 months: what can they strip from the farm to support the major league team? This is one of the key areas where front office tenures are defined.

• The most concerning aspect of Posey’s tenure has been the philosophical design of the organization. From the bits and pieces we see from the outside, there appears to be some shift away from relying on the analytical staff to design the team’s approach to player acquisition and development. The league certainly thinks so in terms of the pitching side of things. Their draft approach with Kilen and Cohen puts them out on a limb. Do they see an edge that others are missing? Or are others not swimming in the same philosophy as the Giants because they know the pitfalls? This will ultimately be the defining thing of this era. Can the Giants build this organization in a manner that is different from the other top organizations and succeed? I hope we get to see where and how they differ, and whether that is paying off. More on this below.

• When the Giants got off to a scalding start in 2025, players and staff were eager to credit Posey’s presence for the team’s success. This is an interesting article in retrospect (4/29). Early-season success was attributed to Posey’s “belief,”, “presence,” “patience,” and “transparency,” with players. Easy narrative when winning, but as the season showed, roster talent wins games, not vibes. As an aside, during the struggle period, Mike Krukow said that the team had lost all confidence, they were tight, and were afraid to make mistakes. Amazingly, those terms were used to describe the 2024 team and it was attributed to how the prior FO operated (see above article).

• Posey diagnosed the slump after the hot start as being due to a pullback from playing an “aggressive style of baseball,” and he doesn’t think the hot start was a fluke. I think there were more impactful reasons (struggles vs. LHP, 2B, SP depth). I would have liked to see him acknowledge some of those practical realities.

• In his first media scrum after taking the reins, Posey made a point to note that the team analysts would be moved away from Mike Murphy’s office, a place of prominence next to Bob Melvin’s office. That seemed like an early signal that, while their voice would still matter, they would not be embedded in the same way they were under the prior front office.

  By the end of the year, multiple players said they were lacking in analytics support (NBCS-BA, 9/29). When asked tangentially about that, Posey said: “It’s very dependent on coaching staff. It depends on their willingness to receive the information and how much they want to use it.” I took that as an indication that Melvin’s staff was not delivering what some players wanted. If that was the case, then making analysts less accessible seems like an odd way to structure things. When a team with the Giants’ resources has players saying they are not getting what they need, that should be a story.

  The same basic philosophy shows up on the minor league side too. The Giants removed data analysts from being on-site with affiliates and instead centralized them at the Arizona complex, something they have in common with Mike Rizzo’s Nationals. Maybe the org believes that clearer communication channels and a more controlled flow of information outweigh the downside of distance. That is at least a defensible theory. But there is also an obvious cost to taking analysts out of the room. On the major league side, the relocation did not seem to lead to a good outcome. On the minor league side, maybe the staff is better at using analysts remotely, but it is still not the same as having them there in person.

  I’m not ready to call this bad, immaterial, or good. I just want to know what the process was. Was this done because the org had a clear philosophy about communication and accountability? Or was it a reaction against the previous regime? Or worse, was it partly aesthetic, a desire to create distance from analysts because of what they symbolize? My concern is that performative philosophy may have started to take precedence over what actually helps players win and develop.

• It would not shock me if Posey decides to take a step back from running the day-to-day in the next 18-24 months. I think a change like this would not be dependent on how the team is doing, though poor performance might accelerate it. He has been non-committal about discussing his future beyond the initial term he signed on for. Though he does pretty upbeat in this article.

• Interesting nugget on Minasian hire from John Shea. Posey wasn’t really considering him at first, but he was always around, so got embedded that way. Posey values familiarity (Winn, Evans, Berry, Minasian, López, Casali) over perhaps other things.

• Posey suggested in reference to Eldridge that they want players “to beat the door down” to get called up to the majors. Why did they not apply that thinking to Whisenhunt? In the seven starts leading up to his debut, his ERA in AAA was 6.00, with not-great peripherals. They burned an option year and probably hurt his trade value, but with what goal? Trevor McDonald was available, and so was Kai-Wei Teng. (I was banging on the table for McDonald all of 2025, by the way. You watch him and can see his path to being useful pretty quickly.)

Organizational Process

Thought this was interesting from Andrew Baggarly. Bold emphasis in response is by me.

With Bob Melvin’s dismissal, it feels like Buster Posey’s influence on the organization is finally front and center. Given that Melvin managed through a roster teardown at the deadline, I’m curious what the internal indictment really was. Was this about results, or about alignment with Posey’s vision for the next phase of the franchise? And what might this decision signal about the kind of offseason strategy Posey plans to pursue? — Jack H.

I’ll start with this. I don’t believe that Melvin was scapegoated the way managers often are when they get fired at the end of a disappointing season. The Giants didn’t finish with an 81-81 record because of Melvin or in spite of him. And yes, there’s an element of unfairness here because the Giants sold at the deadline (although “roster teardown” isn’t the characterization I’d use). But on balance, especially after the Devers trade, it’s fair to say that the Giants should have won more games than they did. When that happens, the manager is usually held accountable.

But I think there’s more to it than that. When the Giants hired Melvin, he was what ownership felt the franchise needed after so many fans were turned off by the lack of roster and lineup continuity under Gabe Kapler: a traditional manager with name recognition and a steady hand at the wheel. Obviously, Posey wants something different now. I think that’s as much a reflection on changes in the game and industry as it is a reflection on what Posey values.

My read of Baggarly’s framing is that ownership pushed the prior front office toward Bob Melvin. If that is true, it says a lot about how the Giants have been operating. It suggests that, rather than one coherent baseball operations process, there have been multiple power centers shaping major decisions. That is usually not how stable organizations work.

The timeline is what makes it stand out. First, ownership appears to step into baseball ops by steering the organization toward Melvin, a move that also represented a philosophical shift away from how Zaidi operated. The staff hires that followed also did not feel especially Zaidi-coded; it is hard to imagine him landing on Price, Christenson, or Williams. Posey’s exact role in that phase is unclear.

Then ownership is reported to have intervened again on Chapman’s contract structure. To be fair, that part is not abnormal in isolation. Ownership often gets involved in big-money commitments. But then an ownership figure literally becomes POBO. After that, Posey extends Melvin in what looked, from the outside, like an attempt to jolt the club (throw shit against the wall). Then he fires him in order to hire “his” guy, except Melvin may also have partly been “his” guy, or at least the ownership group’s compromise choice. That is a lot of organizational flailing in a short window.

What makes this troubling is not any one move by itself. It is the cumulative picture. Ownership appears to backseat-drive major baseball decisions, the organization lurches from one philosophy to another, and when it does not work, it all gets flattened into normal baseball churn. Maybe the long-term impact is limited. But if that is roughly how it played out, it is bad process. And bad process is exactly the kind of thing that gets covered up when an ownership group can always point to the next front office, the next manager, or the next offseason as the fresh start.

Tony Vitello

There is no doubt that Vitello is an unexpected and bold choice for manager. I won’t rehash the million angles people have already taken with him. I think we will just have to wait and see how it goes. I’m probably on the side that is a bit more wary than immediately convinced. The roles are just so different between college and MLB that I wonder if he has the soft skills for it. Saying a lot of words to mean nothing is not a soft skill to me. I will comment on one specific thing, from a Baggarly article:

In September, it was notable that Posey made an unscheduled trip to join the Giants for a series at Coors Field while Vitello happened to be there visiting four of his former players. Vitello, speaking on a podcast with Youth.inc released on Tuesday, confirmed that he spoke with “a GM” during that visit and that, within their conversation, they lamented the current state of the game.

“I think everyone is suffering the consequences all the way up to the big leagues where guys are super skilled, but there’s less development, less coaching, less accountability and therefore less understanding of how to actually play the game to win,” Vitello told Youth.inc. “And it starts all the way, trickle-down effect.”

Posey has made many similar remarks since taking over as the Giants’ top baseball official 12 months ago, extolling the value of players who develop the ability to compete along with physical skills like bat speed and spin rate.

I’d be interested to see if there’s empirical backing for the claim that current players are less developed, less accountable, or less attuned to the nuances of the game. If the argument is that current pros are less detail-oriented or make more mental mistakes than players of the past, I’m not convinced. This is a possible failing in resisting the human urge to fall into easy narratives. Just because players are reaching the majors faster and are more skilled doesn’t mean something crucial was sacrificed in the process. If a TOOTBLAN was observed, that doesn’t mean the entire generation is flawed, etc. This is about what Posey believes is important for player development and what should be prioritized within it. If he believes players need to focus on different priorities than where the rest of the top teams are, that will have ramifications, especially if the basis is confirmation bias.

Ownership Group

Sportico pegs the Giants being worth $4.4B. The Giants sold 10% to SSP for roughly $400M? And they sold another 1%-2% to Richard Chaifetz. How much went into the ballpark vs non-Giants ventures? Baggarly reporting:

But private equity tends to take a different view, and the Giants sold 10 percent of the team to Sixth Street Partners in March. While announcing the transaction, the Giants said the organization would use the cash to fund stadium upgrades and other facilities, including the Mission Rock development in which the Giants are partners in restaurants and other ventures. Private equity investors are walled off from making cash-flow decisions, according to comments that Chicago Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts made to The Athletic in January. But the Giants might be concerned that taking substantial operational losses on paper would fail to demonstrate responsible corporate governance so soon after entering their partnership with Sixth Street. And that’s a particular concern when the revenue-generating picture is far from clear.

The ownership group unlocked nearly half a billion dollars in cash flow for ballpark and real estate ventures by selling shares of the Giants asset. Then, in the name of presenting “good governance” to the new ownership partners, they appear to have imposed financial limits on spending for the very asset that generated that cash for the legacy owners in the first place. That is a form of harvesting the baseball operation to support other wealth-generating ventures.

The money raised from selling part of the team could have been used to reinforce payroll for the rest of the decade. That would have meant putting the value extracted from the franchise back into the franchise and back into the fanbase. Instead, ownership has spent its time leaking complaints through every publication about the $17M check they had to cut for Blake Snell in 2026. Maybe next they can grumble about the larger bonus pool that comes with picking fourth in this year’s draft.

There are a lot of wealthy people in this ownership group. My plea to them is simple: do everything possible to be better than the Dodgers. Spend your wealth. You cannot take it with you.

2025 trade deadline

Rogers trade return was worse than Doval’s: The Rogers trade, at a high level, was two 40 FV guys and a low-leverage RP. About okay in quality for two months of a reliever. The Mets cleared out their 40-man roster of fringe big leaguers. Just Carlos De La Rosa alone was better than anyone in this package.

Camilo Doval return thoughts: Rodriguez is a slap hitter with below-average pop and interesting versatility. Harber has top-notch power that hasn’t fully shown up in games, was an NDFA in ’24, can stick at 3B, likely COF in the Giants system. Vrieling has a 93-94 FB, decent slider, okay control. De La Rosa is an interesting DSL arm: 91-94 FB, sweeping high-spin CB. One industry source texted me when the trade happened that their team had De La Rosa as the best arm in the DSL this year. That might be where the real value is in this trade. FB has hit 97, still figuring out breaking ball shapes, but the raw spin is there. Long road, but the ability to start is there. He has an interesting old-school 11-5 CB that will get whiffs at the lower levels. I preferred what COL got for Jake Bird, but that might not have been on the table for Doval.

Yunior Marte will be an interesting development project. Big guy, 93-95 FB with a vertical slider that he manipulates, splitter that is rough but when he lands it gets ugly swings. RP risk. Hadn’t pitched much before his 19 starts this year in A-ball.

Rule 5

Spencer Miles being taken was not surprising, though Minasian said it was “a little bit,” given his lack of innings. Guys who get in the zone with three quality pitches are going to be valued, no matter the injury history or experience. Let’s see if he sticks here in the final week of spring training. I won’t read too much into it, but it should not have been surprising at all.

Giants see Daniel Susac as a plus defender behind the plate. A big claim. BA had a different take on him entering 2025. He’s having a solid camp, so he likely will win the backup job. Philosophically, I would rather have a decent-framing vet as the backup, or someone with a great deal of versatility like Jesus Rodriguez. Susac, I guess, offers a bit of power from the right side. I thought Miguel Caraballo was interesting, so nice get by Minnesota.

Offseason moves

My main issue with the offseason is that the Giants addressed needs without really solving them. A lot of these moves are defensible in isolation, but taken together they feel like a roster built on too many medium-confidence bets. But that was largely borne out of the organization’s financial limitations and the big swings already taken by the front office.

I think this is shaping up to be an 84-85 win team, will that be enough? A playoff spot will come down to the starting pitch depth and who “arrives” on the reliever side. I think the FO is understimating the complete lack of depth behind the five starters (plus McDonald). I don’t have belief in anyone among the depth group to pitch in 40-50 decent innings. I wish they had put a few more resources into landing RP candidates on NRI deals. But it feels like every team has some level of the same strategy as the Giants, so there is a lot of competition for the interesting arms.

• Jason Foley: Foley had a 104 DRA- in 2024, didn’t make the Opening Day roster in 2025, then had shoulder surgery. Power sinker/slider combo. Good in 2022-23. Not sure about giving him a major league deal, but whatever I guess.

• Adrian Houser: Houser is another sinker/slider guy, with a change too. Guess the Giants want to utilize their strong-ish infield defense (we’ll see how Arraez at 2B plays out). I don’t mind the Houser signing. He’s fine. Didn’t think he would get 2/22, but he’s acceptable as the second SP need for this offseason.

• Gregory Santos: Old friend! Another power sinker/slider guy. Liked this pickup on a minor league deal.

• Tyler Mahle: Mahle had a 109 DRA- season in 2025 and has struggled to stay healthy the last two years, both ending with shoulder injuries (rotator cuff strain in 2025). Houser’s 125 IP in 2025 were his highest of the last four seasons. They did not exactly build a quality 25+ start rotation this offseason. The Giants currently do not have a young possible SP (Birdsong-injured, Seymour, McDonald, Whisenhunt, Tidwell, Winn) who projects to be average or better in 2026 by ZiPS. At the moment, that’s the group the Giants are counting on to support the Roupp/Houser/Mahle group. The Giants will have their own projections for this pitching staff that guide some of their belief in the depth, plus the new coaching ecosystem at the higher levels. But the public-side baseline expectation should be that this is a bottom-5-to-10 group. That leaves a lot for this org to prove.

• Harrison Bader: Bader is fine. But paying for a 90 wRC+ bat with good CF defense is not great for a contending org. Good teams look to upgrade that; the Giants are shelling out in FA for it. Indictment of where the org is. The bottom could fall out on the bat, and then you have an expensive defensive replacement. Bader (career) vs. RHP: 92 wRC+. 2024-25 vs. LHP: 82 wRC+. An unfair way to slice it (better vs. RHP the last two years, better vs. LHP over career), but this guy, with slightly declining defense (above average rather than good/elite), is not a starter or a guy you want in a significant role. So a lot comes down to how real the offensive production from 2025 is, because if it’s not real, is he actually that much more valuable than Gilbert?

• Luis Arraez: This was the second most interesting move in terms of variance after the Tony Vitello hire. I don’t get it for a few reasons, but if it plays out their way, there is a realistic path to this looking fine. The BABIP gods could shine on him this year, and maybe he can be 20% better than the disastrous defense folks are expecting out of him at 2B. I think fans could get tired of him really quickly if that doesn’t happen. His ABs are hard to watch when he takes good pitches in the zone and swings at chase pitches out of the zone. Sure, he won’t strike out a whole lot, but I’m not enamored by lazy line drives.

• CJ Abrams rumored trade: I peg the rumored package of Gonzalez+Davidson+Level+Bresnahan+Whisenhunt at ~15 WAR in value. Abrams has three years of control left. Might get 9-10 WAR out of him, 12 at the high end. So, accounting for $20M/3y, 7-10 surplus WAR. Suggested trade is a major overpay on paper, in my opinion. The exact trade wasn’t spelled out, just that the above might not have been enough. I find that hard to believe. Even discounting each prospect by half a grade and assuming Abrams is a 4-win guy makes the trade about even. I don’t get it. Abrams isn’t worth giving up that much. His SS defense is bad enough that he is probably average at 2B. The bat projects only slightly above average, good runner. Lots of smoke around makeup. Nats (Gore/Abrams/Young) fit SF needs and can accept a high-risk mix as return, so talks make sense, but not this report. I think either Gonzalez for Abrams or Davidson+Level+Whisenhunt is a “fair” trade. I wouldn’t do the former and probably not the latter, but that’s just how I believe prospects are valued. I wouldn’t do the above trade even if Jacob Young were included.

• My thought for the offseason was that the Giants needed one above-average SP, and I narrowed it down to 10. Thought the sweet spot was in the Ryan-Lodolo area of this group: Skubal, Luzardo, Ryan, Soriano, Rasmussen, Cabrera, Lodolo, deGrom, Baz, Gore. Lodolo would’ve been a good fit in terms of potential cost, upside, salary, and two years of control at around 10-12M total, projected ~5 WAR. My guess at the cost was Level+Matos, or Ramos+. Ryan is a tier above Lodolo. Probably can get 7 WAR out of him, but the price would have been steep. Level+Kilen+Bresnahan at the minimum, I think. deGrom works, but wouldn’t leave much payroll space for any other major moves in FA (unless Texas eats, also NTC). Baz was a fine get by Baltimore, but for the Giants he is more of a year-two-of-a-pitching-group acquisition rather than year one. Not into Gore or Cabrera, so I wasn’t too bothered by the Giants not being in on either.

• I have liked a Luis Matos for Bryce Elder swap. The Giants have an opportunity to get more out of Elder. He wasn’t in Atlanta’s rotation plans until a spate of injuries, and he’s out of options. Maybe they are tired of him, and Matos might be better than Eli White? I don’t know. Getting Elder mechanically consistent would go a long way in making him useful. That start he had against the Giants in 2025 was impressive. He looks like a contributor when he is in a flow. Good project for the new pitching brain trust.

• If Casey Schmitt is moved, I would try to add to the AAA SP depth. Pittsburgh could use an upgrade at 3B. Triolo hasn’t done a whole lot with the bat, though defense is quite good. Schmitt is a fit for them. They have some SP depth, but not sure who would be a fair target. Maybe Thomas Harrington? Throws strikes with a mediocre mix.

• I like OF/2B Angel Martínez from Cleveland. Nearly 500 PA last year, struggled quite a bit with the bat, and wasn’t good in CF, okay at 2B. So what’s to like about him? Just 24, hit LHP very well, positional versatility, one option. Better approach is an opportunity.

• A couple of guys who have fallen off that I liked as targets this offseason: Jordan Walker and Kumar Rocker. I can’t imagine the price tag would be too hefty on either.

• A utility player target I like is Maximo Acosta (Miami). Interesting offensive profile. Great swing decisions, just enough thump and contact, could be more aggressive, okay at SS. FG had him at 40 FV in July, so maybe attainable. My past obsessions: 2023: Gabriel Arias. 2024: Edmundo Sosa and Romy Gonzalez.

Quick Hits

Adames’ OAA improvement over the course of 2025 was pretty impressive. Not sure what was going on with him early in the year, but the turnaround was very important. Him trending toward poor at SS in year one of a long-term deal would have been quite concerning for the Giants.

PECOTA and ZiPS projected the Giants to be a 78-82 win team in 2025. Maybe add 1-2 with Devers. That’s about where they ended up last year. Not a narratively smooth path to get there, but nothing really about the season’s result was unexpected.

I went through my own process of who the manager/coaches combinations should/could be, just dumping that here:

Manager candidate ranking based mostly on puff pieces:

1. Scott Servais - 2016-24 SEA

2. Skip Schumaker - 2023 NL MOTY. Unlikely

3. Rodney Linares - TB bench coach

4. Craig Albernaz - CLE bench coach, withdrew from MIA/CHW consideration in ’24

5. Ryan Flaherty

6. Don Kelly

7. Daniel Descalso

Pitching coach shortlist (head, asst, BP) before the Giants made their hires: Max Weiner - Texas PC, Matt Hobbs - Arkansas PC, Matt Pierpont - STL Dir. of Pitching, Connor McGuiness - LAD Asst. PC, Justin Lehr - TOR MiLB Pitching Director, Jarred Hughes - LAA Coord. of Pitching Analysis, Spenser Davis - SVU PC, Luis Pino - SF ACL PC, Joe Torres - CLE Asst. PC. Some of these guys make > avg MLB pitching coach. Hobbs has a long-time relationship with Vitello. Trent Blank (SEA) is a great candidate, but I doubt he leaves the role he is in.

Hitting coach list: I had Hunter Mense (TOR) on my shortlist, so nice pickup there. The rest of the list: Brenton Del Chiaro (MIL Asst. Dir. of PD), Jason Ochart (BOS Dir. of Hitting Dev), Dillon Lawson (BOS Asst. HC), Aaron Bates (LAD Co-HC), Matt Hague (PIT HC), Michael Brdar (DET Co-HC).

Dugout calling games

In pursuit of gaining every edge possible, I wonder if the Giants will try to call games from the dugout this season. There has been a bit of reporting on this during the spring. The Giants sounded like they were considering it early on, but seem to have backed off the idea as we head into the year. It should have a benefit to some extent. Possibly controversial, unfounded opinion based on my watching games, not data: I don’t think Patrick Bailey is a very good game caller. Hard to know exactly who’s calling pitches, but I imagine Bailey handles a lot of it. My read is based on high-leverage situations: he gets too clever, and guys end up getting beat with their non-best pitch. Execution isn’t on him, but you don’t want to lose a matchup with your C pitch.

Tom Murphy doesn’t have good things to say about how the Giants handled his injury. Not sure why a front office wouldn’t want to maintain lines of communication with a player.

Remember some guys

Tyler Rogers and Mike Yastrzemski were good Giants, and I will remember them fondly when I think of this era. Rogers should’ve made more money than he will. The Giants didn’t give Rogers an opportunity despite nearly 150 innings in AAA with an ERA around 2 in 2017-18. He didn’t get a shot at the majors until a new regime took over. In a similar vein, Baltimore sat on Yaz for around 1,200 PA in AAA over three seasons before the Giants acquired him and gave him a crack at the majors. 12.5 fWAR for the Giants.

Jairo Pomares was released by the Giants in July 2025 and didn’t catch on anywhere in affiliated ball. His 2021 50-game stint with SJ was one of the most dominant performances I’ve seen out of a Giants minor leaguer. What is the lesson here? Injuries, proximity, age vs. level, athleticism — hard to parse out as an outsider.

Bat speed

I think the Savant bat-speed metric is useful in establishing archetypes for players or as a signal of something after an injury, but as presented it’s too limited to take too seriously. There is some conversation around Bryce Eldridge’s bat speed and it being a bit below average in his limited stint in the majors. I don’t think it really matters much because we don’t know the weight of the bat, and this metric does not adjust for the type of pitches and locations at which a batter swings.

Rafael Devers had a notable dip in bat speed in July/August 2024 and hasn’t bounced back. He was dealing with shoulder issues on both sides in 2024, including an injury to his right shoulder in late July. August 2024 - 2025: 122 wRC+, that’s a decent bit lower than 2023 through July 2024 at 141 wRC+.

• P.S. I am trying to put together a top 80 Giants prospects list before minor league season kicks off soon. We’ll see if that happens.

• My family and I will be at Giants spring training on Friday (Section 130) and Saturday (Section 305). Come by and say hello!

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Any individual age 15 who turns 16 during the ISP is eligible to sign beginning on the date he turns 16 up through August 31st or by the last day of the regular season of the minor league club to which he is first assigned.

How Much Can the Giants Spend

The Giants have a bonus pool of $5,440,000 for this period, tied for the lowest due to the penalty for signing of Willy Adames (last year they traded for $500K more). Any signing bonus of $10,000 or less does not count toward a team’s bonus pool limit. The structure of the signing period often results in players, working through parents, advisors, or trainers, making informal commitments to clubs several years before they are officially eligible to sign.

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2026 Giants International Signing Class

1. SS/RHH Luis Hernández (12/13/2008, 5’9” 175, Valle de la Pascua, Guarico, Venezuela). Bonus is $5,000,000 (Largest in class). Ranked at 1 on MLB Pipeline’s top 50 prospects of 2026 class. Ranked at 2 on FanGraphs (with a group of 4 others) in the 45 FV tier. Signed by scouts Ciro Villalobos Sr. and Edgar Fernandez.

MLB Pipeline Grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 65

Background: Hernández has been around the pro game since he was young; his father is a coach. He trains at Academia Carlos Alfonzo Guillén (ACAG). He debuted in the Liga Mayor de Béisbol Profesional (LMBP, Venezuelan Major League) in 2024 with Samanes de Aragua. He went 9-for-53 with 2 HR. Returning in 2025, Hernández had a great season culminating in a title and the Young Player of the Year award. Season (Reg+Post): 137 AB, 48 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 20 SO, 9 BB, 4 SB, 37 games started at SS. He finished strong, going 5-for-14 (2B and HR) in the finals against former Giant Gorkys Hernández. This league is made up of players who have various levels of affiliate experience from the DSL all the way to MLB. The higher the level the player reached, the longer it has probably been since they played at that level. To illustrate the player quality, Hernández’s first HR of the 2025 season came off Christian Mejias, who made 24 starts in AA in 2023. The median player from this league wouldn’t look out of place in A or High-A ball but would likely struggle at higher levels. In Liga Venezolana de Béisbol Profesional (LVBP, Venezuelan Winter League), he is with Leones del Caracas, though has yet to make his debut.

What I’ve Heard:

Physicality: Hernández has more physical maturity and strength than the typical J15 top signing. He has added significant strength over the past 6–12 months, as is common for someone his age. Unless he experiences a late growth spurt, he is unlikely to get much larger as a teenager, though he can continue to add strength into his early 20s. He does not stand out as a high-end athlete on the field, but rather as someone who maximizes his existing tools. He has been in a pro training program for years at ACAG, so he is not a player from whom one would expect major on‑field gains simply from entering a professional strength and conditioning environment. With that in mind, he aligns more with a four‑year, SEC‑type draft profile than that of a high school junior in terms of how his physical development should be viewed in pro ball.

Offense: Hernández has a picture‑perfect modern right‑handed swing, with fluid hands through the zone and an upper‑cut path that produces natural loft. He is in control from pre‑swing through contact, not selling out to generate bat speed or power, as is common for J15 signees who grow up around the showcase circuit. Since the first time I saw him at 12–13, he has maintained the same swing path and contact points, generally producing fly balls to CF/RCF in batting practice. He maintains pull‑side power against softer pitches inside. One of his first challenges in pro ball will be demonstrating the ability to catch up to and turn on high‑velocity fastballs. I expect he will be tested on the inner half of the plate. He shows a good balance of selectivity and aggressiveness, rarely chasing pitches well outside the zone, recognizing spin, and laying off offerings at the top and bottom of the zone. He can improve his swing decisions by avoiding pitches that allow only weak contact, potentially trading a few strikeouts for opportunities to attack pitches he can drive.

Defense: Hernández lacks the projection in his tools to profile as a shortstop in his 20s. He is an average runner, and his arm grades closer to 50 FV than 60 FV. That said, I’ve heard positive reports on his hands, first step, fluidity, throwing accuracy, and overall reliability and confidence. What he lacks in range and top‑end arm strength, he compensates for by making the plays he reaches. Brandon Crawford was a limited runner, but his other physical traits and internal clock allowed him to be a high‑end shortstop; Hernández fits a similar mold at the moment. Depending on how he matures, he likely ends up at second base at the highest levels, where he should be better than average.

Baserunning: As noted above, he is already trending toward being an average runner, and this is before he matures further physically and naturally begins to lose some athleticism in his early 20s. Being a threat on the bases will not be a significant part of his game, but he will make more of his tools than one might expect. I see him as a 10–15 SB player who is effective going from first to third, rather than someone with 20–30 SB upside.

Overall: Hernández is not the typical J15 top signing. He is advanced both physically and mentally for his age group and will likely show that quickly as he makes his pro debut in 2026. He has the offensive tools, mentality, work ethic, and general “it” factor to rise rapidly through the system and contribute to the major league club before the end of the decade. Once he reaches the higher levels, a clearer picture will emerge of what type of player he will become, whether a perennial All‑Star, an average starter, a utility player, or a AAAA player. His eventual outcome will be shaped by the balance between his closer‑to‑average athleticism and the abilities described above. In essence, the question is how much improvement he can make from his current baseline.

He may be the best 17‑year‑old baseball player in the world, but a 17‑year‑old who does not continue to mature physically, athletically, or in terms of tools is unlikely to be a meaningful major leaguer at 22. That is the risk with him, and it is the concern raised by several of my sources over the past year. One source specifically noted the limited success of players coming out of ACAG. The academy has produced many seven‑figure signees over the past 7–8 years without much to show for it. The Giants have also been burned by ACAG signees, Yosneiker Rivas (2023, $1M), Juan Perez (2022, $1.2M), Samuel Rodriguez (2021, $450K), and Brian Guzman (2021), a group that has not produced significant results. According to my source, ACAG players tend to be physically advanced due to a cutting‑edge training program, which helps them stand out among their peers but can mask certain talent deficiencies.

In summary, the Giants have signed an exciting player who should gain significant prospect momentum over the next 18 months and be firmly among the best prospects in the game by early 2028. At that point, the true test will begin.

Video: There is a ton of video of Hernández out there publicly, so I didn’t want to spend the time editing all the clips that I have already posted on Twitter/Bluesky. Here is an extended video of Hernandez working out. Gives you an idea of how he moves, works, and how he’s built.

2. RHP Alexis Gallego Gonzalez (09/23/2008, 6’1” 183, Tuxpan, Nayarit, Mexico). Bonus is $375,000. Signed by scout Emmanuel Valdez.

Background: Gallego trains at La Academia del Pacífico, and is with Leones de Yucatán in Liga Mexicana de Béisbol (LMB, Mexican League). He made his debut for Leones on 07-11-2025 in his only appearance of the season (video below).

What I’ve Heard: Athletic right-hander, who has a starter build, and intriguing traits to project. His fastball is 89-91, t93, with feel for a slider, and a precocious changeup. Heard good things about his competitiveness and work ethic.

Video:

3. OF/LHH Angelo Ugueto (10/28/2008, 5’11” 174, Barquismeto, Lara, Venezuela). Bonus is <$100,000. Signed by scout Oscar Montero.

Background: Ugueto is another player that has grown up around the game. His father, Luis Ugueto, appeared in 74 games for the Mariners in 2002-03. Ugueto trains at ACAG and Alex Salazar Academy.

What I’ve Heard: Bat first profile, with a smooth lefty swing that projects to generate power. Athletically limited, thick lower half, will be immediately limited to the corner outfield. He is a bet on physical maturation making up for a limited tool set.

Video:

A Look Ahead

I have heard the Giants linked to another three players in the $100K-$200K range from this class. Since the Giants are up against the pool limit, they will need to trade for additional pool increments as they did in 2025 (Blake Sabol and William Kempner were traded for $250K increments each).

2027

In 2027, the Giants are connected with SS Bony Guzman, who is currently their top target. Guzman has a fluid, power‑producing swing and advanced bat‑to‑ball skills. He trains at Dream De Los Santos Academy.

Other names of note include:

• SS Jesús De Los Santos, who trains at Nuñez Baseball Academy.

• OF Dylan Garcia, who trains at La Academia Javilla.

• OF Angel Betancourt, a speedy center‑field type who trains at Yanez Roldan Academy.

• RHP Engher Cabreja, who features a lively fastball and a hard slider, trains at Ozuna Baseball Factory.

2028

In 2028, the Giants are linked to OF Wilkely Tineus, who trains at Serra’s Cubbies Academy. Tineus is a left‑handed hitter with power potential and is expected to be one of the top players in the class, likely commanding a bonus in the $3.5M–$4M range.

2029

In 2029, the Giants are connected with SS Jeremy Mendoza, who trains at Eagles Professionals Academy. Mendoza is a left‑handed‑hitting shortstop with feel for the barrel and smooth defensive actions.

Final Note

I keep thinking each year will be the last time I’m able to put together anything meaningful about the international signings, yet somehow my long‑time sources, all of whom have long since moved on from the industry, still come through. I’m genuinely grateful for them.

As you’ve probably noticed, my already limited Substack output has basically disappeared over the past year. With two kids now in the 6‑month to 2‑year range, life is…full. Rewarding, chaotic, and full. That doesn’t leave much uninterrupted time to sit down and pontificate in newsletter form. I do hope to put together a top‑80 prospects piece before the minor league season starts. I’ve begun that project more times than I’d like to admit but haven’t yet managed to push it across the finish line. I’d rather post nothing than publish something I’m not proud of, and the standard I’m aiming for takes a lot of work. So, you may or may not see that in a couple of months.

As some of you know, I’m no longer post on Twitter. I am, however, active on Bluesky. If you’d like to follow, here’s the link. The sports conversation over there is good and getting better. If you’re on the fence, jump in and join the discussion, and say hello.

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Who’s Eligible

Any individual who is age 16 or older, has not previously signed an MLB or minor league contract, resides outside the USA, Canada, and Puerto Rico, and has not been enrolled in a high school or college in the aforementioned areas within the previous year, can be signed during the ISP.

Any individual age 15 who turns 16 during the ISP is eligible to sign beginning on the date he turns 16 up through August 31st or by the last day of the regular season of the minor league club to which he is first assigned.

How Much Can the Giants Spend

The Giants have a bonus pool of $5,146,200 for this period, tied for the lowest due to the signings of Matt Chapman and Blake Snell (they traded for $500K more, see note at bottom). Any signing bonus of $10,000 or less does not count toward a team's bonus pool limit. With the way this period works, players (through their parents, advisors, trainers) typically commit to sign with teams years in advance of their official signing date. So, the Giants probably have had the vast majority of their pool committed to players for at least a couple of years now.

The Rōki Sasaki Factor

Sasaki will not be signing with the Giants.

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2025 Giants International Signing Class

A couple of notes:

• You’ll notice that scouting notes are brief, if any, beyond the top two. If you know these players and would like to send me a sentence or two about them, I would appreciate it. The international signing period doesn’t get a lot of focus beyond the top players, so I try to do my bit to help fill the void. Kind sources help!

• Listed ages are on signing day. After the first three, the list is in no particular order. The What I’ve Heard section is a mixture of opinions from folks who are in the game or are on the periphery in one way or another.

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1. SS/SHH Josuar De Jesús González (17.2Y, 5’9” 175, San Cristóbal, Dominican Republic). Bonus is $3,000,000 (6th highest in class once Sasaki signs). Ranked at 2 on MLB Pipeline’s top 50 prospects of 2025 class. Signed by scout Jonathan Bautista.

   MLB Pipeline Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

   Background: De Jesús trains at Jaime Ramos Academy (same academy as Giants prospect OF Rayner Arias, and last year’s top amateur international player SS Leodalis De Vries). He has been a fixture in the national teams for the Dominican Republic, having represented the country in the U-15 World Cup Qualifiers in 2022 and the U-18 World Cup Qualifiers in 2024. In the latter tourney, he started 7 games, going 8-22 with two doubles, two triples, and five steals.

   What I’ve Heard: On the field, González is a dynamic shortstop with exceptional agility, quick feet, and a strong arm. Offensively, González displays impressive bat speed from both sides of the plate, generating power despite his lean frame. His speed also makes him a significant threat on the basepaths, with the potential to develop into a high-volume base stealer. The couple of people I communicated with, who have seen him for a few years, believe González has the potential to be a top-of-the-lineup hitter, providing a combination of speed, contact, and power. His ability to recognize and attack quality spin will be the first challenge as a pro, especially down and away, where he has a tendency to lose his lower half. I expect he will skip the DSL and begin the year in the ACL. The Padres were aggressive with De Vries and started him in A ball last season, but I don’t think González has the same level of physicality at the moment.

   Video:

   Additional video from Baseball America:

2. OF/LHH Djean Macares (16.8Y, 5’8” 174, Hooiberg, Aruba). Bonus is $1,100,000 (36th highest in class). Ranked at 25 on MLB Pipeline’s top 50 prospects of 2025 class. Signed by scouts Abner Abreu and Rogelio Castillo. I believe he didn’t officially sign today, but will do so soon.

   MLB Pipeline Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

   Background: Macares trains at Fortuna Training Facility with Giants prospect and fellow Aruban, Yoxander Benitez (2024 class). Macares represented Netherlands (bronze medal) in the U-18 European Baseball Championship, going 13-22 with six doubles, a triple, and three steals.

   What I’ve Heard: Macares is a contact-oriented left-handed hitter with an easy swing and the ability to consistently make hard contact. While his power potential may be limited due to his frame, he demonstrates a good feel for the barrel and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He is a fundamentally sound player with advanced plate discipline and pitch recognition for his age. In the outfield, he has good instincts, but while his speed might limit him to corner outfield spots long-term, he will start out in center field.

   Video:

   Short feature on Macares from Whistle Sports (September 2022):

3. SS/RHH Yulian Barreto (17.5Y, 5’10” 185, Puerto Cabello, Venezuela). Bonus is $900,000 (41st highest in class). Not ranked by MLB Pipeline. Signed by scout Ciro Villalobos Jr.

   Background: Barreto is signed with Navegantes del Magallanes in Liga Venezolana de Béisbol Profesional.

   What I’ve Heard: Barreto has the tools to stick at short for the medium-term, and has a good feel for the game. He has more pop than his frame would indicate and makes good swing decisions. Developing more strength, pull-side pop, spraying line-drives will be early goals as he kicks off his professional career.

   Video:

4. SS/RHH Alexander Camacaro (17.3Y, 5’8” 151, Barquisimeto, Venezuela). Bonus is $225,000. Signed by scout Oscar Montero.

   Background: He trains at Future Stars Baseball Academy. He is the younger brother of Giants prospect Keiberg Camacaro.

   What I’ve Heard: Good bat to ball ability, doesn’t really impact the ball right now. Likely second base long-term due to arm.

   Video:

5. C/SHH Miguel Caraballo (6’0” 190, Valencia, Venezuela). Bonus is $150,000. Signed by scout Carlos Leon.

   Background: Caraballo trains at OL Academy.

   What I’ve Heard: Good frame, athletic behind the plate. Smooth lefty swing, has some pop from both sides.

   Video:

6. C/RHH Diego Alambarrio (16.10Y, 5’6” 171, Valencia, Venezuela). Signed by scout scout Carlos Leon.

   Background: He trains at LLantex Baseball Academy with last year’s top bonus signee Yohendry Sánchez.

   Video:

7. LF/RHH Rainer Espinoza (6’0” 201, Araure, Venezuela). Signed by scout Oscar Montero.

   Background: He trains at 3M Delux Baseball Academy.

   What I’ve Heard: Moves well for a corner outfielder and showed some burgeoning power last spring before coming to an agreement with the Giants.

   Video:

8. C/SHH Carlos Martínez (5’9” 167, San Sebastian, Venezuela). Bonus is $50,000. Signed by scout Jonathan Arraiz

   Background: He trains at Yanez Roldán Baseball Academy

   What I’ve Heard: He has shown above average pop times behind the plate and a good approach at the plate

9. RHP Ebduar Loina (18.3Y, 6’0” 172, Libano, Panama). Signed by scout Rogelio Castillo.

   Background: He trains at CR Boys Baseball Academy. He plays for Panama Oeste in FEDEBEIS.

   Video:

10. SS/RHH Yeison Oviedo (5’10, 162, Maracay, Venezuela). Signed by scout Edgar Fernandez.

11. RHP Yesid Mendoza (5’11” 156, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia). Bonus is $15,000. Signed by scout Daniel Mavarez.

12. RHP Jose González (6’2” 180, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia). Signed by scout Daniel Mavarez.

13. RHP Jeremiah Jones (6’1” 175, Philipsburg, Saint Martin). Signed by scout Lester Victoria. This is the first player the Giants have ever signed out of Sint Maarten. Franklin Van Gurp was born there, but he was drafted out of FIU.

14. LHP Winkel Del Rosario (6’3” 180, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic). Signed by scout Carlos Reyes.

15. RHP Abraham Utrera (6’0” 180, Ortiz, Venezuela). Signed by scout Carlos Leon.

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    Final Thoughts and A Look Ahead

    On paper the Giants have brought in a strong class. Handcuffed with a decreased pool, the international scouting group nevertheless landed the top amateur player (González) and another player whose stock has risen over the past year (Macares). The Giants traded for an additional $500,000 in international bonus pool dollars due to needing to up González’s bonus.

    Next year, the Giants are once again expected to sign one of the top prospects of the class. This time they’ll be landing a top Venezuelan shortstop named Luis Hernández. He trains at Carlos Guillén Academy and has already featured for a summer pro league in Venezuela playing alongside recent major leaguers. He is an advanced player that is strong, capable at short, and has all the tools at the plate. A good read on him here. In 2027, the Giants are connected with SS Jesús De Los Santos, who trains at Nuñez Baseball Academy and OF Dylan Garcia. In 2028, the Giants are linked to OF Wilkely Tineus, who trains at Serra’s Cubbies Academy. Tineus is a left handed bat with power potential, and is expected to be one of the top players of the class.

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This article will take you through my thinking behind the approach for this offseason plan, write ups on each of the suggested moves, what the roster looks like with these moves, two alternate plans, and a few final notes. I’m interested in hearing your feedback on this article’s proposed ideas, especially so if you feel the trade cost or contract cost is too low. Please respond here, on Twitter @giantsprospects, or email giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com.

Introduction

After the Giants spent significant financial and organizational capital in the last offseason, the regular season did not deliver the results that were expected. This led to the end of the Farhan Zaidi’s time as the leader of the Giants and an era with a winning percentage of .520. A lot has been said about this period, so I won’t be re-hashing anything here. We are on to the next chapter with Buster Posey, but I’ll be taking the same approach as I did last season, maximize available resources to make the playoffs, with a couple of wrinkles. I avoided players with qualifying offers and for the main plan, steered away from long-term commitments. It will likely take 86-88 wins to get a playoff spot and my goal here was to build a roster that projects on Opening Day to hit that mark, without relying on the young players making a significant leap.

The priorities in developing the plan:

1. Budget: The Athletic reported that the Giants will have “$30-40 million, beyond their eight players under contract plus the forecasted salaries of four arbitration-eligible players plus pre-arbitration player salaries” to spend this offseason. This is about $20M-$25M short of their theoretical max spend while staying below the competitive balance threshold (which comes with a few penalties especially as a repeater, the Giants were over in 2024).

2. Needs: I see the needs as primarily two-fold, a starting shortstop and a top of the rotation starting pitcher.

   1. Shortstop: Tyler Fitzgerald had a standout rookie campaign, delivering 3 fWAR at SS. There is still a need here because Fitzgerald struggled defensively at the position (-4 OAA), while being above average at 2B/CF/LF (in limited samples). Moving him to second base allows him to accrue positive value defensively to make up for a likely regression offensively (.295 xwOBA vs. .357 wOBA in 2024). Ideally, a starting second baseman is acquired too, pushing Fitzgerald to a utility role, but with the reduced budget, this was a challenging needle to thread.

   2. Starting Pitcher: Beyond Logan Webb, there is a lot of uncertainty with the rotation options:

      1. Injury risk (Ray, Hicks)

      2. Mediocrity in recent past performance (Harrison, Winn, Hicks, even Ray)

      3. Low innings ceilings (Hicks, Birdsong, Roupp, McDonald)

      4. Complete unknowns (Whisenhunt, Seymour, Ragsdale, etc).

      Giants have a good amount of depth made up of interesting and talented young arms, so they’ll be able to mix and match like they did in 2024 and get a decent outcome. But that task would be a whole lot easier doing it for three spots in the rotation rather than four.

   3. Corner Outfield (RF): Jung Hoo Lee will be about eight months from shoulder surgery and should be ready for the early part of spring training, locking up the starting CF spot. Heliot Ramos had an All-Star season and is in line for a starting corner outfield spot, ideally LF. That leaves RF. I expect Mike Yastrzemski to be tendered a contract and in a platoon he is not the worst guy to put out there, but someone a contender would be looking to upgrade

   4. First Base: LaMonte Wade Jr. turned in another solid year and at a low cost. Wilmer Flores had an injury plagued season, but hopefully bounces back to be a worthwhile option. This position like RF above isn’t in terrible shape, but again a situation that a contender would like to get a higher quality player at.

3. High Leverage Reliever: The Giants bullpen threw the second most innings in baseball last season, there will be some repercussions from that this year. So even though they were relatively strong in high leverage situations (even with Doval’s struggles), another reliable veteran reliever here would help support a young staff.

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   The Plan

   1. Giants trade OF Mike Yastrzemski, 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., LHP Carson Whisenhunt, SS Aeverson Arteaga to the Astros for LHP Framber Valdez and RHP Ryan Pressly

   2. Giants trade RHP Landen Roupp to the Guardians for 1B Josh Naylor

   3. Giants trade RHP Camilo Doval to the Rangers for OF Adolis García and LHP Mitch Bratt

   4. Giants trade LHP Reggie Crawford (or LHP Joe Whitman, or INF Walker Martin) to the Twins for INF/OF Willi Castro

The net cost of all these moves to the major league payroll is about $41M, so right at the budget speculated by The Athletic.

1. Giants trade OF Mike Yastrzemski, 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., LHP Carson Whisenhunt, SS Aeverson Arteaga to the Astros for LHP Framber Valdez and RHP Ryan Pressly

   Takeaway: Giants get a top of the rotation starter and a high leverage reliever. Astros shed nearly $18M in payroll to assist with re-signing Alex Bregman, fill holes in the COF, 1B, pick up a 50 FV starting pitching prospect, and a young shortstop.

   Contract Details: Giants add a net $17.6M in CBT payroll with this move.

   

   Giants Outlook: Valdez is entering his age 31 season and the final year of arbitration reaching free agency after the 2025 season. He has been durable and productive, averaging just over 190 innings and 4 fWAR per season over the last three years. He’s primarily a three-pitch guy, relying on a good 93-95 mph sinker that he throws about half the time, an excellent curveball that he throws 30% of the time, and an average change up 17% of the time. Valdez induces more groundballs than nearly every starter in baseball and does a good job staying off the barrel of hitters. He has average control. He slots in behind Webb and can take advantage of what should be a solidly above average infield defense behind him. After the season, he can given a qualifying offer, re-couping some of the trade cost should he sign elsewhere. Pressly has a no-trade clause, which complicates this move, but the news that the Astros are shopping him makes me think he might be open to waiving it. Pressly lost his closer spot to Josh Hader and will likely be behind Bryan Abreu as well in the leverage pecking order, which is another reason he might consider waiving his clause. Pressly wouldn’t get 14M on the open market now, though he is still an above average reliever, so I see the Astros being under water on this deal by about $8M. Pressly slots in as the second high leverage arm for the Giants and can step into the closer role if Ryan Walker has any hiccups.

   Astros Outlook: The Athletic notes that the Astros have around $37M to spend if they want to stay below the first CBT threshold for 2025. Bregman is expected to receive a deal in the neighborhood of $28M-$30M AAV, so if they’re serious about re-signing him, a Bregman deal would eat up nealy all available resources this offseason. The Astros have a desperate need for a first baseman (Jon Singleton is their projected starter) and a left-handed hitting corner outfielder, who they can pair with Chas McCormick. Wade Jr. and Yastrzemski fit those needs well. Both players, but especially Yastrzemski should see notable power increases playing in Houston vs. San Francisco (Savant projected that Yastrzemski in 2024 would have had 26 homers in Minute Maid vs. 15 in Oracle). Astros can absorb the loss of Valdez with the depth that they have, and I’ll quote The Athletic on that:

   Dangling workhorse starter Framber Valdez and his projected $17.8 million arbitration salary would seem logical if there is a directive to trim payroll. Giving away nearly 200 innings of a sub-3 ERA is dangerous, but the emergence of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco, along with the expected return of Luis Garcia, would soften the blow somewhat. Dana Brown could backfill the rotation with cheaper alternatives that the Astros’ pitching department could tweak or tap into some pitching depth at their upper minor leagues, be it with Ryan Gusto, Miguel Ullola or A.J. Blubaugh.

   Dumping Pressly and his $14M salary is also a benefit. Along with filling two of their bigger needs at the major league level, this move also adds a 50 FV prospect in LHP Carson Whisenhunt and a 40 FV shortstop in Aeverson Arteaga (FanGraphs grades, ymmv). Whisenhunt reached AAA in just his second full-season and possesses one of the best pitches in professional baseball with his changeup. He has above average FB velo for a LHP, and a developing breaking ball. There is some reliever risk here, but a close to the majors lefty arm that has been in Top 100 lists is good value. Arteaga, missed a lot of the 2024 season with thoracic outlet syndrome, but returned late in the year. He has all the tools to stick at shortstop long-term and has some pop. A decent lottery ticket. The totality of this move would allow the Astros to sign Bregman for $30M AAV and still have another $20M-$25M more to add a mid-rotation starter, extend Kyle Tucker, or cut back on overall payroll.

   Why This Trade Is Fair: We have a very good like for like comparison to Valdez with Corbin Burnes from last offseason. The Brewers received INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall, and pick #34 from the Orioles for Corbin Burnes, who was projected to be just as good as Valdez is for 2025, at a year younger. I attempt to “value” the return below with some assumptions and personal rules of thumb.

   

   Joey Ortiz was a 50 FV player at the time of the trade, which as a position player, I value at $30M, DL Hall was a former Top 100 prospect, but at the time of the trade was a middle reliever with some injury risk, so have him pegged for the value of a 40 FV pitcher. Pick #34 had a bonus pool of $2,700,000 and I consider draft pools to have 5x value to an organization, so $13.5M in value here. That got me to a total of just under $50M as the return for Burnes. The proposed trade matches up closely to this total value. Yastrzemski is projected for 1.2 fWAR, which at $9M/WAR and net his $9.5M projected salary, means a surplus value of $1.3M. Same calculation with Wade Jr. (1.6 WAR, $4.7M salary) shows a surplus of $9.9M. Whisenhunt as a 50 FV pitcher, gets a discounted value of $22M compared to Ortiz’s $30M as a position player. Arteaga as a 40 FV position player, but with some volatility baked in lands him at the same value as Hall. I value Pressly as being underwater by $8M on his $14M contract. Finally, Valdez is projected to receive $2M more in arbritration than Burnes did in 2024, which slightly lowers his value. Lots of assumptions, but I tried to take an art and science approach to it. One could argue that Ortiz’s value was higher at the time of trade than what I have here and Whisenhunt’s lower, I wouldn’t fight too hard against it. If there is someone other than Bryce Eldrige that the Astros prefer over Whisenhunt, I would be open to considering it.

2. Giants trade RHP Landen Roupp to the Guardians for 1B Josh Naylor

   Takeaway: Giants get a pending free agent, who is a slightly above average starting first baseman. Guardians get an arm with one of the best curveballs in the game, can immediately be a part of the major league staff.

   Contract Details: Giants add a net $12M in CBT payroll with this move.

   Giants Outlook: Giants acquire a first baseman who has averaged 2.3 fWAR over the last three seasons. 2024 was the first season that Naylor played exclusively at first base and his career defensive metrics there are good. He hits RHP quite well (120 wRC+ in career) and was average against LHP in 2024. He has a good profile at the plate with above average raw power and excellent swing decisions. He does well against fastballs, decent against offspeed, and has had some struggles against breaking balls. He missed about a month in 2023 with an oblique strain, and has some back spams in 2022 as well as ankle issues. He is not known to be in the best shape that he could be and has had some off the field issues in the past. As a pending free agent, he could be sufficiently motivated to enter the year in the best shape possible and finally break into the 3 WAR tier of first basemen. If he does do something like that, some of the trade cost could be re-couped with a qualifying offer.

   Guardians Outlook: There are cost-controlled internal replacement options for Cleveland with Kyle Manzardo and David Fry. Manzardo likely doesn’t have the power to match Naylor’s production, but could get within distance of it and at a very low cost. Fry having elbow surgery means he will be limited 1B/DH for a good portion of the 2025 season. Guardians have a need for pitching this offseason with Triston McKenzie and Gavin Williams having down 2024 seasons. Dumping the $12M Naylor is projected to receive will create some payroll flexibility, while adding to the pitching depth. Roupp had a solid 50 inning major league debut and Cleveland has the player development group to maximize his stuff. Roupp has long been a favorite of mine, and it hurts to include him in a trade because I think there is a decent chance that it could blow up in the Giants face, but it takes value to get value. I think Naylor’s surplus for 2025 pegs him at around a 45/45+ FV prospect, which is where I have Roupp.

3. Giants trade RHP Camilo Doval to the Rangers for OF Adolis García and LHP Mitch Bratt

   Takeaway: Giants bet on a bounce back season for a recent postseason hero. Rangers beef up their bullpen, while shedding some salary.

   Contract Details: Giants add a net $4.7M in CBT payroll with this move.

   Giants Outlook: Giants take a bet that García bounces back to 2022-23 levels where he was a near 4 WAR player, at an affordable price, providing much needed power in the middle of the lineup. García had declines across the board with performance slipping against all types of pitches, decline in speed, and major issues in right field. In a game in the middle of May, García collided with Marcus Semien, and missed a few games with forearm soreness. The splits before (117 wRC+) and after that injury (82 wRC+) are stark. But it’s hard to assign all the blame to that incident. Chris Young seems to believe García was in good health during the year until the he had a knee issue at the end. If he has the same season he did in 2024, he is at best limited to being a DH, or more likely not playable in any manner. Steamer thinks there will be some bounce back and I think so too. Bratt is a 21 year old starter, who reached AA in 2024. Doesn’t have eye-popping stuff, but has good control and an above average slider. If Rangers balk at Bratt, someone lower down the pipeline who I like is RHP Caden Scarborough.

   Rangers Outlook: Rangers too get a bounce back candidate albeit at a smaller salary ($5M is savings) with the upside of two additional years of team control. Rangers bullpen is projected to be the third worst in baseball in 2025 by Steamer, so Doval will certainly be filling a major need. Rangers have a hitter friendly ballpark, the fifth friendliest for home runs, so Doval generating a high amount of groundballs makes him a good fit.

4. Giants trade LHP Reggie Crawford to the Twins for INF/OF Willi Castro.

   Takeaway: Giants get a versatile defender, who has had good metrics at SS and an above average bat over the last two seasons. Twins fill a need for a lefty reliever, while dropping some salary.

   Contract Details: Giants add a net $6.2M in CBT payroll with this move.

   Giants Outlook: This is somewhat of a gamble that Castro, who has only appeared in 156 games in his career at SS, could take that responsibility on as the everyday guy there. 2024 was easily his most time there, appearing in 56 games, starting 51. The results in that somewhat small sample were good, +3 OAA. He has displayed the needed arm strength to play there and has the raw foot speed as well. Playing there everyday is taxing on the arm and could lead to worsened performance over a long period of time. With the bat, Castro has been a slightly above average hitter over the last two seasons. He had a big first half in 2024 and a slow second half, the reverse in 2023. He has average raw power, showed some good improvement in swing decisions in 2024. He is good against fastballs, decent against breaking balls, has struggled against offspeed. As a switch hitter, he’s notably better from the left side, and his weakness against LHP could be controlled by sliding Fitzgerald to short and playing Flores or Schmitt at 2B.

   Twins Outlook: Castro is a pending free agent, without a clear starting role other than maybe at DH. He does hold value for them though, as demonstrated in 2024. Twins are having some payroll constraints this offseason, so $6M for a utility player (albeit 2024 team MVP) might be a luxury. Crawford has some high octane stuff, but has struggled to stay on the field. Despite that, he’s on track to make a major league debut next year and should immediately step into a high leverage role. Edit: It completely slipped my mind that Crawford will miss 2025 after having shoulder surgery. Obviously, a shoulder injury is concerning for a pitcher, so Crawford’s value is lower than what I initially pegged him at. I would be ok with substituting LHP Joe Whitman or INF Walker Martin as a replacement. Though the Twins have a quality bullpen, a lefty is still a need there. If Crawford can show some health and ability to log innings, a future conversion to starter isn’t out of the question. I see Castro having just a bit less surplus value than Naylor and I see Crawford in that 45 FV range, so see it as a fair trade for both sides.

   ---

   Projected 26-man Roster

   C: Bailey

   1B: Naylor

   2B: Fitzgerald

   SS: Castro

   3B: Chapman

   LF: Ramos

   CF: Lee

   RF: García

   DH: Flores

   C: Murphy

   INF: Wisely

   INF: Schmitt

   OF: Matos

   SP1: Webb

   SP2: Valdez

   SP3: Ray

   SP4: Hicks

   SP5: Harrison

   RP1: Walker

   RP2: Pressly

   RP3: Rogers

   RP4: Rogers

   RP5: Miller

   RP6: Winn

   RP7: Rodriguez

   RP8: Beck

   ---

   Upsides and Downsides

   Upsides:

   1. Not a single dollar in guaranteed commitments is added to the 2026 payroll, which means the Giants would only have $110M on the books heading into next offseason, leaving perhaps $65M-$75M in room at currently spending levels. Current expected free agents for next offseason include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez among others. Giants would be in position to retain Valdez (30M) and still add a couple of notable names.

   2. Giants would be aligning their top starters’ profiles as groundballers with a good infield defense. I think all the infielders can be considered at least above average at their position in this plan.

   3. All needs heading into the offseason are addressed with average to above average players, while remaining within budget, and not taking any qualifying offer penalties.

   4. Though a number of prospects are being moved, Giants are trading from a position of strength (young pitching). I have my doubts about Whisenhunt (if you can’t spin it, can you ever spin it?) and Crawford, so see this as selling when they still have value. With Roupp, it is expending organizational capital to help the team now.

   Downsides:

   1. If Pressly has issues with waiving his no-trade clause, the biggest of these moves is in danger as I’m relying on taking on his underwater contract to make the values work. I hesitate to include even more prospect capital cost to make up for it if Pressly can’t be included

   2. Giants would be giving up two internal top 10 prospects (maybe top 5), another in the teens, a potential back end major league starter (Roupp), and won’t have anything to show for it after the 2025 season other than a pick in the 70-80 range as compensation for Valdez (and maybe Naylor as well). If they are out of the running at midseason, they can recoup some of this value then.

   3. There is a healthy amount of risk being taken on. Valdez has been reliably good, so not as concerned about him. Naylor too has been consistently average over the past few years. García might just be done even at just age 32. Castro has had limited time at short, so can he really play there everyday is an open question. If he can’t, then the Giants don’t really have a good option other than moving Fitzgerald back there and taking the lumps on defense.

   ---

   Alternatives

   There are two alternative offseason plans that I worked through. I will be brief with the writeups. I would be satisfied with either of them, some of you might even prefer one of these. I think they have lower risk, but also lower upside for the 2025 season.

Alternate Plan #1

1. Giants sign LHP Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $57M contract. Kikuchi is projected at 3/60M by MLB Trade Rumors, 3/51M by FanGraphs. I like Kikuchi the most of the ~20M AAV, no qualifying offer starters (Flaherty, Eovaldi).

2. Giants sign OF Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $45M contract. I really like Profar as a target for the Giants. If the budget was higher, I would prefer Profar to Adolis García in the main plan. The Giants might be able to still fit in him under that plan by shedding a bit of salary. Profar slots in as the everyday RF.

3. Giants trade OF Mike Yastrzemski and LHP Joe Whitman to the Twins for INF/OF Willi Castro and RHP Chris Paddack. The Twins have a need for an outfielder and get to dump Paddack’s near $8M salary, and pick up a prospect who has had a good year and will be in the Giants top 10. Giants add a starting SS and some starter depth with Paddack.

   Upside: Commitments made to lock up SP2 and starting RF for the next few years, with players projected to be above average. Find a starting shortstop and backend starter depth. Only one top 10 prospect given up.

   Downside: Multiple three-year commitments to players in their early 30s. Profar a year ago was struggling to get a major league deal. Kikuchi is worse than Valdez, Naylor is better than Wade Jr., Profar is better than García, so see overall team being worse than the main plan.

   The net cost of all these moves to the major league payroll is about $38M.

Alternate Plan #2

1. Giants sign SS Ha-Seong Kim to a two-year, $38M contract with an additional team option for $25M. Kim had surgery for a small labrum tear in his right shoulder in September. I haven’t been able to confirm it, but it sounds like it was a SLAP tear, which has a return time in the 6-9 month range for position players. That timeline puts Kim’s return sometime around the late June, early July mark. On the public side we have no information about whether it is indeed a SLAP tear, the extent of it, nor the prognosis. The literature on return to play post a SLAP tear surgery is limited, but not extremely positive.

   RTP (return to play) rates were 59% for pitchers and 76% for nonpitchers (P = .060). Subjectively, the percentage of patients who felt the same or better at follow-up compared to preinjury was significantly higher among nonpitchers (66%) than pitchers (43%).

   So depending on the severity, this surgery could be carrying some notable amount of risk. I think this is why there is a wide range of salary predictions for Kim. MLB Trade Rumors has it at 1/$12M, FanGraphs 5/$100M, The Athletic 4/$72M. Depending on what you know about the injury or how you account for it, gets you that spread. I’m leaning a bit more to the cautious side with the proposed deal. It gives Kim some security and the team some upside if he plays well. I didn’t go with Kim as part of the main plan because I’m seeing more risk here than the average observer. Apart from the surgery, I see Kim as a three-win player, which is not enough to pencil in no value for half the year, and pay close to 20M AAV. If the surgery risk is less than what my guess suggests, then he is a better fit.

2. Giants sign LHP Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $57M contract. See note under Alternate Plan #1

3. Giants trade OF Mike Yastrzemski and RHP Camilo Doval to the Phillies for INF Edmundo Sosa. Sosa has been an above average defender at short, second, and third for a few years now. Though he had an above average season with the bat in 2024, he projects to be a below average one going forward. Still, he serves as a good bridge to Kim and then a reliable glove off the bench, who can give you something with the bat. Sosa is under team control through the 2026 season. Phillies are projected to start Nick Castellanos in RF, and he had a rough 2024 and is projected to have another poor season in 2025. In LF, they are also needing a better option. Yastrzemski can fill either spot as an upgrade. With Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez hitting free agency, Doval fits as a high leverage reliever replacement.

4. Giants trade LHP Carson Whisenhunt and 2B Walker Martin to the Marlins for OF Jesús Sánchez. Sánchez is a player that I kept coming back to during this planning exercise. I kept trying to find ways to make him fit because I really like the power and think there is more to get out of him. Though the Marlins looking mainly for prospects rather than major league pieces made it a tough fit. I worked him in with this plan using Whisenhunt and Martin. Sánchez has three years of team control including 2025, for what should cost around $15-$18M in arbitration and has trended as a ~1.5 WAR type of player. He hits RHP well (112 wRC+ career), but has major struggles against LHP and is unplayable against them. He has the raw power that will play better at Oracle than a lot of left-handed bats. He is decent in RF with a strong arm. Platooning him with move #5, gets you to at average production, with some upside. Marlins flip a platoon player for a fringe top 100 prospect and another prospect who recently received a seven-figure bonus. I think it’s possible that I’m valuing Sánchez a bit too much with this return, but it feels appropriate to me.

5. Giants signed OF Harrison Bader to a one-year, $8M contract. Bader hits lefties ok (though not in 2024) and is excellent in CF. He would be a good fit with Sánchez in the expansive Oracle Park RF (or Jung Hoo Lee moves over for him) and offers some depth behind Lee in CF. Giants don’t have a reliable CF defender on the 40-man apart from Lee and Fitzgerald. McCray has a good reputation, but poor numbers in a small sample, Matos and Ramos have struggled there, and Meckler is an unknown.

   The net cost of all these moves to the major league payroll is about $37M.

   ---

Final Notes

1. A few other free agents I like, but don’t see a great fit with the Giants: 2B Gleyber Torres (undervalued), LHP Matthew Boyd, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Michael Conforto (yep), RHP Shane Bieber, OF Max Kepler, RHP Spencer Turnbull, and David Robertson.

2. A few other trade targets I like, but don’t see a great fit with the Giants: 1B Nathaniel Lowe, SS Bo Bichette, SS Trey Sweeney, OF Tyrone Taylor, LHP Adrian Morejon (conversion to SP).

3. Four trades and no free agent signings in the main plan feels aesthetically off, I mean what team just makes only trades for their major moves in the offseason? I think what might be a bit unique about this offseason are the number of teams looking to shed payroll. I didn’t go through every team, but feels I keep reading about it over and over. That belt tightening lends itself to mid-market teams looking to move off of late arb, average starters.

4. My plan last year was a mixed bag. Yelich had a great year before missing the last ten weeks of the season with a back issue, which due to its chronic nature I suggested would be a good reason for why Milwaukee should move him. Chapman was clearly a hit and giving him the long-term deal that I proposed would have made it work out even better. Gray had a great year, but had forearm tendinitis to end the year. The alternatives to Gray (Lugo and Imanaga) turned out great as well. Kepler’s season ended early with an injury but was having a down year. The trade cost being Slater and Flores worked out, because they struggled as well. Soler didn’t work out, but they were able to move on from him without any further obligations. Carlson didn’t have a great year, but the Rays saw something in him, so counting that as win. Andrus didn’t appear in the majors, so a major league contract for him was a big whiff.

5. There is a lot of guess work, assumptions, and personal intuition that may not be tied to reality in this article. I make sense of things in my head, but that isn’t always going to lead to the best frameworks. My goal was to design a paper playoff team without gutting the system, while building off ramps to pivot to other approaches if this doesn’t work. Up to you all to decide if I achieved that or not.

   ---

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I posted this bit of news a few weeks ago, adding a bit more detail here. Giants are expected to sign the top amateur prospect of the 2025 international class, SS Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez. I’ve been told a few different variations of his first name such as Josguar and Joshwar, I’m going with the name listed on WBSC. Gonzalez is a switch hitter from the Dominican Republic and has been a known name in baseball circles there for a few years. He represented the Dominican Republic in the U-15 World Cup Qualifiers in 2022. He went 7-18, 2K/1BB, 4 SB, with three extra base hits. He even made a quick appearance on the mound.

The quick scouting report on him, athletic, expected to stick at shortstop, natural fluid actions, good arm. With the bat, plus bat speed, showing good raw power for his age from both sides, with some questions about his hit tool and overall contact ability. This isn’t considered a very strong class and Gonzalez isn’t by any means considered the no-doubt #1 prospect, only so among the couple of people I’ve discussed him with. I expect him to be at least in the top five when MLBdotcom’s and Baseball America’s lists come out. This far out things can of course change as these are only verbal agreements, but exciting news nonetheless.

A couple of other names I’ve heard are:

i) SS Yulian Barreto (Venezuela), who recently signed with Navegantes del Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League.

ii) OF Djean Macares (Aruba) trains at the same facility as 2024 signee Yoxander Benitez. A video report featuring Macares and his background here.

Continuing with the 2025 international signing period, I’ve heard that the Dodgers are not linked to any of the roughly 10-15 top prospects and it might even be top 30, but not sure about that. Why might that be? RHP Rōki Sasaki, widely considered to be the best pitcher not in MLB, has made waves over the past few months about his desire to be posted in the winter of 2024. The Dodgers have long been rumored to be linked to him when he does come over. Under current rules, a player like Sasaki, who is under 25 and has not reached six years of service in NPB, is subject to MLB’s international amateur signing bonus pools, which set a hard cap and limit him initially to a minor league contract.

With the Dodgers not being in on any top amateur players for 2025, I’m thinking whether they could be saving their pool for him. There is still lack of clarity on whether Sasaki will posted in the 2024 winter or not. If he is, we could be in for another unsettling offseason with the Dodgers landing the big prize at relatively little cost.

The Giants didn’t use up all of their international bonus pool for 2024 yet. Joe Salermo alluded to this on Roger Munter’s podcast with him. The Giants have around 1.25-1.5M left in this year’s pool. They can spend that on any players that pop up during the rest of the year (the signing period runs through middle of December), or they could trade it. The Giants have traded bonus pool dollars before, in the Matt Moore trade to Texas and the Andrew McCutchen trade from Pittsburgh.

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Giants hitters by SEAGER

SEAGER is a new metric, created by Robert Orr at Baseball Prospectus, and it reflects how well a player balances attacking hittable pitches with laying off ones that don’t lead to good results. Giants leaders in 2023 (min. 25 PA, 13.6 was average in 2023):

1. Marco Luciano: 28.2

2. Wade Meckler: 23.9

3. Luis Matos: 19.3

4. Joc Pederson: 18.4

5. J.D. Davis: 18.1

6. Brandon Crawford: 15.1

7. LaMonte Wade Jr.: 14.9

8. Wilmer Flores: 14.7

9. Austin Slater: 14.5

10. Heliot Ramos: 14.1

Patrick Bailey, Blake Sabol, and Thairo Estrada are among the bottom five. The sample sizes for Luciano, Meckler, Matos are quite small, but encouraging to see those three at the top. Luciano has the power to really take advantage of this level of good decision making, it’s just a matter of him finding his timing and rhythm. Meckler and Matos currently lack that power (Matos has shown some growth this spring), but have a good foundation to build upon. In slightly larger AAA samples, Matos and Meckler hold up relatively well, but Luciano did much poorer.

Bailey is being hurt by a really poor hittable pitches taken percentage. This was something I noticed quite often during his time in Eugene, letting fastballs go that are right down the middle. I don’t know if there is a mental switch that can be flipped to make him more aggressive, less dependent on guessing, but that is the big step he needs to take to get his bat closer to average (for a catcher).

Trade destinations for J.D. Davis

With the addition of Matt Chapman, J.D. Davis’ position on the roster is tenous. Giants should be able to get decent value back for him because of the strides he made defensively last season and his projection of being an average everyday starter. It’s a rental (Davis is a free agency after the 2024 season), so expectations need to be muted. A few destinations and returns I like below, mainly focused on netting a starting pitching option in return. I’m bad at valuing other team’s players, so forgive me for anything that appears unreasonable.

1. Detriot Tigers: The Tigers currently have Gio Urshela slated to be their starting third baseman with Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling, and Andy Ibáñez as other options. None are really stand out. Jace Jung is in line to be their third baseman of the future so a one-year bridge with Davis makes sense.

   Trade: J.D. Davis and OF Grant McCray for RHP Matt Manning. Manning has four years of team control, has a decent three pitch mix, but performance has outpaced peripherals. Detriot has Casey Mize to step into the fifth spot in the rotation, so a bit of trading from depth for both teams, but Detriot may not want to count on Mize, especially to open the season. Detriot gets a starter upgrade for one year and also a talented outfielder, who’ll be in AA this year.

2. Chicago Cubs: Cubs have a few okay options at third with Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, and Christopher Morel, but no everyday option.

   Trade: J.D. Davis and Randy Rodriguez for RHP Javier Assad. Assad had a decent year pitching out of the pen and making 10 starts for Chicago in 2023. His sinker doesn’t wow, but has gotten good results. Has a decent cutter and slider has some potential. Drew Smyly might be another option if they pay down a big chunk of the deal.

3. Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto currently has Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, and Santiago Espinal as options at third base. IKF has struggled with the bat, Turner hasn’t played a ton of third base since 2021, and Espinal isn’t great with the bat. This group is why Toronto was in the mix to bring back Matt Chapman. They are dealing with rotation injury woes of their own with Gausman and Manoah out this spring, but they have some decent depth options that I like.

   Trade: J.D. Davis for RHP Bowden Francis and LHP Adam Macko. I’ve liked Francis for awhile, good FB/CB combo. Made 20 appearances out of the pen for Toronto in 2023 and had good results. Has been a starter throughout his minor league career and is being considered as an option to fill in for Gausman or Manoah. Macko is a small lefty starter, who’ll open the minor league season in AA. Has racked up good strikeout rates, but has some command issues.

Washington, Oakland could also use a third baseman, but don’t think they’'ll be interested in a one-year option. Milwaukee could use him if they move Willy Adames and slide Joey Ortiz from third to short. New York Mets have Brett Baty slated to be thier starter, but he’s coming off of a rough 2023 season with the bat, though projected to be much better in 2024.

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An important part of this Giants offseason has been the change in the coaching staff at the major league level, where I believe there have been one-to-one replacements. When you look at the staff that are rarely in the public eye though, there appears to be a notable amount of reduction in staff in both the player development side as well as scouting, this offseason and last. Hard to say what is driving it from my vantage point. Did the Giants, under Zaidi, get too big in PD and scouting and the bodies weren’t actually helpful for the future of the org? Or did the ownership group step in and decide they had too much payroll invested in these roles and push to contract the group? The former would be palatable if it was process driven, but unlikely. The latter would be bleak and disappointing, adding fuel to the idea that the ownership group is not prioritizing investing in what it takes to be among the best franchises in today’s game.

You can compare the Giants group with the Dodgers one here. It’s pretty clear that the Dodgers have more staff at all senior baseball operations levels than the Giants (Dodgers don’t list their scouts to examine differences there).

Below gets into the detail of these losses.

Coaching Staff Replacements/Losses

1. Brian Bannister: Bannister, Director of Pitching, was hired from Boston in December 2019. He left the Giants to join the White Sox. Giants have not hired a replacement. Along with Andrew Bailey and J.P. Martinez, Bannister helped turn the Giants into a destination for pitchers who were looking to rebound, with Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon and Alex Cobb among the success stories. A couple of quotes about Bannister and his impact:

   “He’s the think tank behind it all,” Cobb said. “I think a lot of the success that you guys have seen, all the reclamation projects that have happened, myself included -- he’s seen diamonds in the rough and understood how to incorporate what he saw in the dude. … It’s a huge loss.”

   “It’s a tough one,” added left-hander Kyle Harrison. “He’s a smart dude. He knows his stuff. He’s going to help them out in Chicago. Definitely a tough guy to lose. He definitely helped me out in my Minor League career.”

   I’ve heard Bannister wasn’t the easiest person to work with, but his positive impact on the Giants was undeniable. On a side note: his working remotely in 2022 due to refusal to get vaccinated for COVID does make me wonder what other scientific methodological blindspots he has and operates under.

2. Dustin Lind: Lind, Director of Hitting and Assistant Hitting Coach, was hired from Seattle in December 2019. He is now the Assistant Hitting Coach for Philadelphia. Giants have not replaced the Director of Hitting role. Lind was part of the hitting coach group that helped fuel the unexpected offensive performances in 2021 as this article covers.

Why are the Director of Hitting and Pitching roles important in today’s game? They serve as leaders who set the player development direction for the organization. They act as the bridge between R&D and coaching staff to take insights generated by analysts and convert them to actionable plans for the coaches. The director roles provide clarity and guidance from one voice on which way the franchise is going to move and what the framework for that direction looks like. Who’s setting this for the Giants now? Does it fall to Kyle Haines and Pete Putila?

3. Craig Albernaz: Albernaz, bullpen and catching coach, was hired from Tampa Bay in December 2019. He left the Giants to join Cleveland as their bench coach. The Giants hired Garvin Alston to replace him as the bullpen coach. They also elevated Alex Burg from bullpen catcher to catching coach. Burg was drafted by the Giants in 2009 and was in the org through 2012.

Player Development Losses

1. Matt Daniels: Daniels, Pitching Sciences Coordinator, left the org in the 2022 offseason for Minnesota. Giants have not replaced this role. Daniels was among the first hires made by Zaidi when he joined the organization from Driveline Baseball in January 2019. Since then, he was an integral part of building the Giants’ new pitching development foundation, using biomechanical and data analytics to develop pitchers throughout the system. He, along with Bannister and Bailey, were the driving forces in keeping the Giants up with the best of baseball and developing edges to create competitive advantages.

2. Pat Burrell: Burrell, Roving Hitting Coach, was elevated to the major league staff as a hitting coach. Giants have not replaced this role yet. This role travels to each of the minor league affiliates multiple times a year to work with each team’s coaching staff and their players. The idea being that the more people you have that can see the players the better. These coordinators are that glue between the front office and the coaching staff.

3. Tim Leiper: Leiper, Outfield and Baserunning Coordinator, was hired by San Diego as their third base coach. Giants have not replaced this role.

4. Kellen Lee: Lee, Mental Skills Coach, was hired by Seattle in the same role in the 2022 offseason. Giants went from two Mental Skills Coaches to one with Lee’s departure.

Scouting Group Losses

1. Brian Bridges: Bridges, National Cross Checker, left the org to become the Scouting Director for Kansas City. Giants have not replaced his role leaving them with one National Cross Checker (John Castleberry). Bridges is still listed on the team directory, but has definitely left the organization. Bridges spent four seasons with the Giants after joining the organization in early 2019. Prior to joining the Giants, Bridges worked with the Atlanta Braves from 2007-2018 where he had a great deal of success.

2. Steve Decker: Decker, Pro Scout, is no longer listed on the team directory. Giants don’t appear to have replaced him.

3. Steve Riha: Riha, Pro Scout, is no longer listed on the team directory. Giants don’t appear to have replaced him.

Front Office Losses

1. J.P. Ricciardi: Ricciardi, Senior Advisor, was one of Zaidi’s first hires after being named President of Baseball Operations. That leaves John Barr as the sole remaining Senior Advisor as of now. Per Baggarly, Ricciardi left when his contract expired and presumably the Giants didn’t have interest in renewing. As Roger Munter notes here, a diversity of thoughts is sorely needed in the front office and Ricciardi’s departure doesn’t help with that.

2. Felipe Alou: Alou, Special Assistant, was in this role for 16 years. Dusty Baker was brought in as a Special Assistant.

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This section isn’t connected with the above (at least from what I can tell), but I did the work, so thought I would dump it here.

Changes in the Ownership Group from 2019

1. Arctos Sports Partners: Added in 2023 (Private Equity)

   1. This podcast episode was an interesting listen from a Arctos Sports Partner, Ian Charles, especially around them getting involved in team and business ops with their Insights platform.

   2. A single private equity fund can own up to 15% of an MLB team, which can only sell 30% of its shares to institutional investors. MLB has not placed a limit on the number of stakes in teams that can be owned by a single fund, Arctos owns stakes in at least six teams (Dodgers, Padres among them).

   3. How are there no conflicts of interest with an entity owning stakes in multiple teams? A PE entity, like Arctos, will typically invest equity in return for a stake in a holding company or joint venture vehicle of the team, which will go on to manage the commercial side of the business. These organizations will then utilize this injected capital to explore opportunities such as acquiring players or building new infrastructure. The separation of the commercial side of the business allows teams and their front offices to retain a level of control. Does this mean there is no spillover? Probably not. The influence of firms like this is only going to grow and they’ll have their own ideas about the future of organizations.

2. Arthur H. Kern: Passed away in 2022

3. Allan G. Byer: Passed away in 2019. His son, Alex, is still listed as part of the ownership group.

4. Aneel Bhusri: Added in 2023 (CEO of Workday)

5. Buster Posey: Added in 2023

6. Jerry Yang: Added in 2022 (Yahoo! co-founder)

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Who’s Eligible

Any individual who is age 16 or older, has not previously signed an MLB or minor league contract, resides outside the USA, Canada, and Puerto Rico, and has not been enrolled in a high school or college in the aforementioned areas within the previous year, can be signed during the ISP.

Any individual age 15 who turns 16 during the ISP is eligible to sign beginning on the date he turns 16 up through August 31st or by the last day of the regular season of the minor league club to which he is first assigned.

How Much Can the Giants Spend

The Giants have a bonus pool of $5,925,000 for this period. Any signing bonus of $10,000 or less does not count toward a team's bonus pool limit. With the way this period works, players (through their parents, advisors, trainers) typically commit to sign with teams years in advance of their official signing date. So, the Giants probably have had the vast majority of their pool committed to players for a couple of years now.

2024 Giants International Class

A few notes:

• These are players that I have heard over the past couple of years, and due to the nature of these verbal agreements, things change. I did my best to circle back on all of these names, but usually get a couple wrong. One or two of these names might be signed in next year’s class of players. I have already heard a couple of names that are definitely in that class. The nomenclature inconsistency in the industry (due to the COVID signing class), makes the year a player is eligible hard to pin down, especially while having conversations in a language that I’m mediocre in at best.

  • SS Ángel Guzmán is a name I heard connected to the Giants for awhile, but it appears that he is signing with Toronto. Landing him would have made this an interesting top group, but alas.

• As you’ll notice, scouting notes are brief, if any, beyond the top two (even that only thanks to Jesse Sánchez). If you know these players and would like to send me a sentence or two about them, I would appreciate it. When the signings become official, I would like to have a note on Twitter for every player signed. The international signing period doesn’t get a lot of focus beyond the top players, so I try to do my bit to help fill the void. Kind sources help!

• Listed ages are on signing day. After the first two, the list is in no particular order. The What I’ve Heard section is a mixture of opinions from folks who are in the game or are on the periphery in one way or another.

• This post was written before Baseball America’s top 50 board came out, so haven’t incorporated anything from that article. One thing to keep in mind, BA ranks players by expected bonus received, MLB Pipeline relies on a survey of international directors I believe. BA lists Sánchez at 24 and Level at 38.

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1. C/RHH Yohendry Sánchez - (17.2Y, 6’1” 190, Valencia, Venezuela). Ranked at 36 on MLB Pipeline’s top 50 prospects of 2024 class.

   MLB Pipeline Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

   Background: He trains at LLantex Baseball Academy. He’s signed with Águilas del Zulia in the Venezuelan Winter League. Represented Venezuela in U-18 Men’s Baseball World Cup Qualifier in 2022. He went 1-13 with six walks and three strikeouts. On that team was Giants second baseman Dennys Riera (class of 2022), who was 18 months older than Sánchez. Note: MLB Pipeline has his first name as Yoendry, but both his LVBP team and WC qualifier team have it as Yohendry.

   Scouting Note:

   Sánchez shows lots of raw power and arm strength. The young catcher moves well for his size and has made significant strides in his overall game on defense.

   His power is ahead of his other tools at the moment, and he has flashed the potential to leave the yard in all directions.

   What I’ve heard: It’s going to take work from him to stay at catcher, mobility will be an issue as he matures. Much stronger than peers at the moment, so deficiencies with strike zone discipline aren’t as stark. Quick hands and natural power, arm behind the plate will be carrying abilities.

2. SS/SHH Jhonny Level - (16.9Y, 5’10” 160, Cumana, Venezuela). Ranked at 44 on MLB Pipeline’s top 50 prospects of 2024 class.

   MLB Pipeline Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

   Background: He trains at Dennis Suarez Academia. He’s signed with Tigres de Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League.

   Scouting Note:

Level is an athletic, switch-hitting infield prospect with fluid swinging mechanics and a natural feel for hitting. He has the potential to hit for both power and contact -- from both sides of the plate. Scouts have been impressed with his elite bat speed. A twitchy athlete with good reaction times…his arm strength has been his most notable tool on defense.

What I’ve heard: I’ve heard mixed things about his ability to stay at shortstop long-term. With his strong arm, he is a natural fit at third base if shortstop doesn’t work. Has shown ability to hit for contact and power from both sides. Has physically matured in the last year and is much stronger than he was projected to be at this point. Looks better in games than workouts, fits in the Luis Matos, Riera phylum of players, who show game feel at a young age but might not stand out in a workout environment. He is liked by many in the industry, but nothing about him jumps off the page, is the impression I heard.

3. Evan Estévez - (Dominican Republic)

   What I’ve heard: Good arm, plenty of physical projection, power hasn’t shown up in games just yet.

4. SS/RHH Yoxander Benitez - (17.2Y, 6’0” 170, Aruba).

   Background: He trains at Fortuna Training Facility. Benitez will sign at some point in the first couple of weeks of the cycle, so likely won’t show up on the official list on J15.

   What I’ve heard: Good hands at shortstop, above average speed. Has some projection. He needs to get stronger for the bat to play at the pro level.

5. C/SHH Santiago Camacho - (16.11Y, 5’10” 170, Venezuela)

   Background: He trains at Rodriguez Baseball Program. He’s signed with Leones del Caracas in the Venezuelan Winter League.

   What I’ve heard: Switch-hitting catcher, who is a good framer and has a good arm. Left-handed swing is ahead with a contact-oriented approach.

6. OF/RHH Oliver Tejada - (Dominican Republic)

   Background: He trains at ANIB Baseball Academy and MVP Baseball Academy.

   What I’ve heard: CF now, likely corners as he matures. Line-drive approach, but has developed some power over the last year.

7. C/RHH Fernando Peña - (Venezuela)

   Background: He trains at Guaicaipuro Prospect Academy. He’s signed with Navegantes del Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League.

   What I’ve heard: Strong frame, moves well behind plate with a good arm. Good approach at the plate, above average raw power for his age.

8. SS/RHH Juan Colorado - (Venezuela)

   Background: He trains at Caribes Baseball Academy.

   What I’ve heard: Steady hands at short, decent arm.

9. SS/LHH Boris Sarduy - (Cuba)

   Background: Sarduy’s father played professional baseball in Cuba for Villa Clara. Sarduy played for Cuba’s bronze medal winning U-12 WC team in 2019. He was a two-way player for that team. He left Cuba soon after that.

   What I’ve heard: Good arm at shortstop, might be a better fit in the outfield corners. Advanced bat, but raw tools are average at best.

10. CF/LHH Ricardo Crespo - (5’10” 160, Venezuela)

    Background: He trains at Big Player Baseball Academy in Barquisimeto.

    What I’ve heard: Plus speed in center field, decent bat path.

11. RHP Kendry Castro - (Dominican Republic)

    What I’ve heard: -

12. RHP Argenis Cayama - (17.4Y, 5’11” 165, Valencia, Venezuela)

    Background: He trains at 5J Baseball Academy. He’s signed with Navegantes del Magallanes in the Venezuelan Winter League.

    What I’ve heard: -

Other names:

13. Elkyns Villareal - (Dominican Republic)

14. Albert Jiménez - (Dominican Republic)

15. Yulian Barreto - (Venezuela)

Excuse any errors, they are out of ignorance and not malice. We will find out the official list of signees on January 15th, but more will trickle in during that week and rest of the year. Giants are expected to go back to one Dominican Summer League team, so the large signing classes of the past couple of years will likely not happen this year.

I’ve another article in mind about various odds and end regarding the Giants and baseball overall, look out for that post sometime in the next couple of weeks. Have a great 2024 everyone!

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Before getting to the list of players I find interesting, lets quickly note the Giants’ minor league free agents. Farhan Zaidi has already indicated that the Giants are interested in bringing back Japanese 1B Yoshi Tsutsugo, who joined the org in late August. Among the rest, I would like to see INF/OF Shane Matheny return. Matheny has had a couple of good years in Richmond, but hasn’t been able to make the leap to AAA. His defensive versatility, being competent on the infield and being able to play CF, with a good approach, some sneaky power, have made me a fan of him.

The list I’m using for the pool of minor league free agents was compiled by Baseball America here.

Now to the minor league free agents from around MLB. I’ve divided these targets into two groups. First group has notable amount of major league experience (> 100 games/50 innings), the other group has yet to make debuts or has had only a brief time in MLB. Expect both groups to head into Spring Training on minor league contracts.

Players with notable MLB experience

1. LHP Eric Lauer: 28.5Y, 6’3” 228. Long time starter in the majors, has started 112 games since 2018. Had two above average seasons in 2021-22. Struggled in 2023, giving up 16 HR in 46.2 IP. Had a near three tick decline in fastball velocity in 2023. Why?: Bet that his fastball velo can bounceback, could be an average starter.

2. OF Trayce Thompson: RHH, 32.2Y, 6’3” 225. Klay’s brother has kicked around the majors since 2015. In 2023, he was with LAD and CHW. Had reverse platoon splits in his career, being slightly above average against RHP. Good baserunner, average defender in the OF, probably below in CF. Good history of barrelling balls, doesn’t chase, but piles up strikeouts. Why?: Ok CF, who can hit RHP.

3. 3B Jean Segura: RHH, 33.7Y, 5’10” 220. Segura is a long time major leaguer, accruing just under 6K PA over his career. Had a rough 2023 with the bat, 52 wRC+ in 85 games with Miami. Has been above average at 2B in the past, but was below average at 3B this year. Aggressive hitter, who doesn’t strikeout a ton. Why?: A bet on a bounce-back year for a bat who has been league average for awhile, and decent at 2B.

4. SS/2B Kevin Newman: RHH, 30.3Y, 6’0” 195. After a solid 2022 season with PIT, Newman was traded to CIN, where he struggled with the bat. Appeared in 74 games with a 78 wRC+, which is around his career average. Below average at SS defensively, but not awful. He has a good approach at the plate, well below average power, good speed. Why?: Competent SS, who gives you a good AB.

5. 2B/LF Tony Kemp: LHH, 32Y, 5’6” 160. Kemp had a big 2021 season, accumulating 3.1 fWAR that year for Oakland. Has steadily declined with the bat since, with a 77 wRC+ in 124 games in 2023. Average at both LF and 2B. Gives you a good AB, doesn’t chase, but has well below average power. Speed is average to below average. Why?: Average fielder, who gives you a good AB, some upside with bat.

6. RHP Erasmo Ramírez: 33.6Y, 6’0” 217. Ramírez has been in the majors since 2012, first as a SP, now as a RP. Struggled in 2023 after a good 2022, K/BB the same. Why?: Ditch the sinker, and go with cutter/breaking balls only.

7. RHP Daulton Jeffries: 28.3Y, 6’0” 182. Jeffries had TJ in September 2022, so missed all of 2023. Has a history of being able to throw strikes with an average three pitch mix, hasn’t missed bats though. Sweeper looked interesting in my looks, tweaking it might give him the whiff generator he needs. Why?: Throws strikes, and has an worthwhile out pitch.

8. RHP James Kaprielian: 29.8Y, 6’3” 225. Has made 58 starts in the majors for Oakland. Had a good 2021 season, but his K/BB have gone in the wrong direction since. The raw stuff that he had in 2021, still seems there to me, especially with the SL/CB. Maybe he can up their usage and reduce the fastball. Why?: Two interesting breaking balls.

9. RHP Wilmer Font: 33.5Y, 6’4” 250. Pitched in KBO in 2021-22 and was likely the best pitcher there during that time. Returned stateside signing with SD for the 2023 season, but missed all of it, couldn’t find the injury reason. If healthy, his FB/SL combo could play in the pen. Why? Good results in a AA-AAA level league with a good two-pitch combo.

10. RHP Cole Sulser: 33.8Y, 6’1” 190. Has just over 130 innings in the majors with a good 2021 season with Baltimore under his belt. Had some shoulder issues which limited his availability and stuff in 2023. Why?: Changeup is a good pitch for him and has an ok FB/SL, a bet that he bounces back in 2024.

11. RHP Joe Barlow: 28.1Y, 6’2” 210. 73.2 IP in the majors, all with Texas from 2021-23. Two pitch guy, who relies heavily on a good SL. 93-94 FB. Scattered FB control has limited his time in the majors. Why?: Quality SL, play the RP roulette.

12. C Chad Wallach: RHH, 32Y, 6’2” 247. Wallach has been getting cups of coffee in the majors since 2017, with 2023 being year with the most playing time. Hasn’t really hit in the majors, with a 60 wRC+ over his career. Average framer with a below average arm. Can hit a fastball and I like his swing more than his numbers indicate. Why?: Ok defender, who can run into a fastball.

13. 1B Keston Hiura: RHH, 27.3Y, 6’0” 202. After a decent year with the bat in 2022, Hiura spent the full 2023 season in the minors. Trending towards pure DH. Why?: Bat that can barrel balls up with good power.

14. RHP Austin Voth: 31.4Y, 6’2” 215. Had a good 2019 season, but has been below average since. Had some elbow issues in 2023. Why?: FB plays and has shown a decent sweeper in the past.

15. SS Yu Chang: RHH, 28.2Y, 6’1” 182. 235 games in the majors. Good defender at SS (+5 OAA career). Why?: Never a bad idea to have a quality SS defender.

16. 1B/RF Jared Walsh: LHH, 30.3Y, 6’0” 210. Walsh had about a 200 game stint in 2020-21 where he was a well above average bat, but has struggled since then. Mostly a 1B now. Why?: I believe players who have shown a good ability to barrel balls over a decent sample, can find their way back.

Little to no MLB Experience

1. 1B Andrés Chaparro: RHH, 24.6Y, 6’0” 200. Had a monster 2022 season in AA and actually made my list of interesting low-cost targets that offseason. Power wasn’t at that level in 2023 in AAA, but metrics show he still has well above average power with a decent approach. Pure 1B and likely better off at DH.

2. OF Yonathan Perlaza: SHH, 25Y, 5’9” 170. Kicked around CHC’s system as a pro, but started to climb in 2021 and had a strong 2023 season in AAA. COF profile, so he’ll have to hit and there are reasons to think he can. Showed good power in AAA while limiting chases and bad AB. Should be a top target around the league as a minor league free agent.

3. 1B/3B Jake Scheiner: RHH, 28.3Y, 6’1” 200. Has steadily moved up Seattle’s system, putting together decent years. 2023 was his first taste of AAA, and he had a slightly above league average season, hitting 30 HR, with a 15 BB%, in one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the PCL. Mostly played 3B this year, but has played quite a bit of 1B in the past, and even a bit of COF. Good combination of power without huge swing and miss. UPDATE: Signed with Hiroshima in NPB.

4. 1B Josh Lester*: LHH, 29.3Y, 6’3” 180. LHH version of Chaparro, with a grade less power and worse approach, and slightly better at 1B.

5. OF Travis Swaggerty: LHH, 26.2Y, 5’10” 200. Former first round pick, who can go get it in CF, with some raw power. He dealt with some migraine issues in 2023 and didn’t play a ton.

6. RHP Alan Rangel: 26.2Y, 6’2” 170. Has spent most of the past couple of years starting in the upper minors for Atlanta, including some time on the their 40-man roster. Three pitch mix that is around average, with a FB that is 91-93 with good carry.

7. LHP Noel Vela: 24.10Y, 6’1” 185. Interesting three pitch mix, with a FB that has been up to 97 in the past and an above average CB. Missed 2023 with an unknown injury and stuff apparently was down. Has had control issues too. Lefties with quality stuff are always worth a look.

8. RHP Efrain Contreras: 23.10, 5’10” 225. Stuff caught eyes in 2020, but TJ surgery caused him to miss all of the 2021 season. Spent some time on SD’s 40-man roster, returned, stuff wasn’t quite at 2020’s level. Shows some starting potential with a good CB. Young arm that has flashed in the past, could benefit from getting in shape.

9. RHP Mark Washington: 27.7Y, 6’7” 205. Spent the last couple of seasons pitching out LA’s AAA bullpen with okay results. 94-95 FB that generates GB, a good changeup, and a mid-80s tight slider.

10. RHP Juan Then: 23.9Y, 6’1” 155. Three pitch mix with a hard sinker and decent SL. Spent a bit of time in the majors with Seattle, but struggled with control in AAA. Roll the dice that someone his age can find a grade or two improvement in control.

11. C Brian O'Keefe: RHH, 30.4Y, 6’1” 210. Has had a couple of cups of coffee in the majors with Seattle the last two seasons. Gives you AAA depth as an average defender with some power. Have seen him a good amount of times while watching Sacramento, like his combination of power and limiting swing and miss.

12. RHP Max Lazar: 24.5Y, 6’1” 200. Funky delivery with elite extension that helps a sub-90mph FB play up. Pairs that with a good changeup, and has good control. Had a decent year out of the pen in AA, after spending most of his career in A-ball.

13. RHP Joe Record: 28.10Y, 6’3” 232. Spent the last two seasons’ pitching out of Houston’s AAA bullpen. Decent amount of strikeouts, but a bit too many walks. 92-94 FB from an interesting angle, slider looks interesting.

14. 2B/SS Rafael Lantigua: 25.6Y, 5’7” 153. Good AAA season in second go-around, hitting for a decent amount of power while striking out and walking at about the same rate. Stole 28 bases, while playing all over the field. The raw power metrics are well below average, so not expecting much out of him, but a decent org guy.

15. RHP Tahnaj Thomas: 24.5Y, 6’4” 217. Converted infielder who has shown a plus major league quality slider at times in AA. Repeated AA in 2023 and had a down year. FB has velocity, but has played below it. Some interesting clay here to work with.

16. SS Luis Aviles Jr.: RHH, 6’2” 210. He didn’t catch any of my data filters, but I recognized his name from having seen him play Giants affiliates. I remember him putting together good AB, more power than you would think, and playing a quality middle infield. Likely just middle infield depth.

17. C Garrett Wolforth: RHH, 6’2” 220. Another guy who didn’t catch my data filters, but someone I recognized as a good framer. Decent minor league catching depth that’ll help your pitching staff.

    ---

There are a lot of warts on the players above and that is why they are available. If one or two of these players, especially someone from the second group, adds value to a major league team, I would consider my analysis a success. I had a couple more names on my list, but while I was working on writing them up, they signed deals. Those names are RHP Ricky Vanasco (LAD) and RHP Michel Otanez (AZ).

Thank you for reading. As always, you can reach me on Twitter (@giantsprospects) or by email (giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com). I might find some time to look at Rule 5 targets, was pretty happy that I managed to identify RHP Trevor McDonald as someone who should be added to the Giants 40-man roster. He’s a good one. If you missed my first post, here are 5,000 words on my offseason plan for the Giants. If you care to, please share that and this article to communities that might be interested.

—Avi

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If you’re reading this post, you likely follow me on Twitter and saw the tweet summarizing the meat of this post. This article will take you through my thinking behind the approach for this offseason plan, write ups on each of the suggested moves and possible alternatives, what the payroll and roster looks like with these transactions, and finally some concluding thoughts. I have another post in mind in the next couple of days where I will look at NRI, minor league free agents, and players I did deep-dives on and considered for this plan, but didn’t end up incorporating. I’m interested in hearing your feedback on this article’s proposed ideas, especially so if you feel the trade cost or contract cost is too low. Please respond here, on Twitter @giantsprospects, or email giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com.

Introduction

It’s no secret that offensive production was the chief issue the Giants had in 2023. They finished 21st in MLB by wRC+ as a group. Their two most productive position players, by fWAR (Estrada and Bailey), accumulated their value on the defensive side of the ball. That isn’t ideal. The roster just didn’t have enough durable, everyday position players that could be projected to accumulate 550 PA+ and produce at an above average level. I have long believed that the true quality of a team should be primarily judged by their ability to win their division. That is a tough task in the NL West with the Dodgers remaining quite a bit ahead of the Giants in overall talent. The next best thing is to be a top five team in the NL and get one of the three wild cards. It will likely take 84-88 wins to get one of those spots and my goal here was to build a roster that projects on Opening Day to hit that mark, without relying on the young players making a significant leap.

The priorities in developing the plan:

1. The outfield was the main source of struggles, finishing 24th as a group by wRC+, with the third worst fWAR at 1.8. Outfield defense remained an issue. The group was dead last in 2022 by Statcast’s Outs Above Average (OAA) at -26, and though improved in 2023, was still one of the worst teams in baseball at -13 OAA. So, my first priority was improving the outfield bat quality as well as defense.

2. The offense also just needed better bats. J.D. Davis had a solid year overall, making remarkable improvements to his defense, but was only slightly above average with the bat. Joc Pederson couldn’t replicate his strong 2022 season, and struggled mightily against LHP. Giants ended up with decent production at the DH spot thanks to Wilmer Flores’ strong year, but can’t expect him to replicate that next season. Addressing these two positions was my next priority.

3. Giants need for a front-line starter grew with the news that Alex Cobb would have hip surgery and be out for at least six months. That likely leads him to be out for the first couple of months of the regular season, and how he looks upon return at age 36 is also a concern. The good news here is that there are a number of free agent options that fill the bill. I’m wary of the downside risk with pitchers, so finding an option that can be relied upon while also not requiring at 150M+ commitment was my focus here.

4. The Giants plan at shortstop for 2024 appears to be turning over the position to top prospect Marco Luciano. That is acceptable to me. The fortunes of this franchise in the next few years rest partially on his broad shoulders and now is the time to see what he can do. It’s prudent to find an alternative option though. That is the final thing I tackled.

5. If Shohei Ohtani is a serious possibility for the Giants, throw this plan in the bin and go sign him.

   ---

The Plan

Move #1. Giants trade 3B J.D. Davis, OF Michael Conforto, and RHP Anthony DeSclafani to Brewers for OF Christian Yelich

Takeaway: Giants get an everyday LF who projects to be above average for the next couple of seasons, while getting off of 2023 "bad salary." Milwaukee reduces long-term payroll risk, while filling immediate needs without being saddled with commitments into 2025.

Contract Details, attributes (age on opening day), and statistics: For 2023, Giants cut $7.3M in CBT payroll with this move. Removing DeSclafani and the cash, make this a net neutral trade.

• Yelich - LHH, 32.3Y, 6'3" 195

• 2023: 632PA .278/.370/.447, 22K%, 12BB%, 122wRC+, 19HR, 28SB, +4OAA

Giants outlook: Christian Yelich will be entering his age 32 season and will be ages 32-36 through the course of this contract. He had his best recent season by far, after making some mechanical tweaks, getting healthier. Video review and a few under the hood metrics indicate to me that he can sustain this level of production for at least another couple of seasons, and due to his approach and swing profile he will not completely crater in the latter part of the deal. 11 out of his 19 HR this season went to LF/LCF, so park effects should be more muted for him than a typical LHH at AT&T. Defense bounced back, with a +4 OAA in LF, though he has a poor arm. He continues to show good speed with well above average sprint speed, and also had 28 SB in 2023. Struggled against LHP with a 73 wRC+, so would need to be protected at times. He has been durable, averaging about 650 PA the past couple of seasons, but has had persistent lower back issues for awhile now, could get worse in his mid-30s. His contract includes a full no-trade clause, so would need to approve this trade.

Giants get off of 30M for next season with Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani going the other way. The notable cost is J.D. Davis who projects to be an average starter (becomes a FA after 2024). The cash of 5M is to reduce how much salary Milwaukee would need to take on for 2024. Stripling could be offered as an alternative to DeSclafani, he makes about the same. Alternatively, could pull DeSclafani and cash components out of the deal if necessary. I think a 45 FV prospect from Milwaukee would make this deal a bit more even, but I'm not too stuck on it. I project Yelich to be worth 9-11 WAR over the course of the five years. He has a 6.5M buyout in 2029 that I'm including in the 126M calculation.

Brewers outlook: Yelich makes up the vast majority of the money they have on the books from next season. After a strong bounce back year, they would be moving on at the best time and remove the risk from their future. They currently don't have a good option at 3B, and J.D Davis fills that with a cost just under 6M. Conforto didn't live up to expectations in 2022, but still had an okay season as a league average bat, and average in LF with a decent arm. AT&T is hard for left handed hitters that don't have upper quartile power, so Conforto's will play better in Milwaukee. I can see him bouncing back close to 2 WAR. If healthy, Steamer projects DeSclafani to be a bit better than two of the current projected starters for Milwaukee (Houser, top prospect Gasser), so at the very least serves as a depth option on an expiring deal. All three could be trade deadline candidates if they get off to a hot start and the Brewers are out of the playoff race.

Alternatives: I don't see a good alternative to Yelich with this 2023 salary dump approach, but the Giants might see more with these following players than what I do:

• CF/DH Byron Buxton: 5/75M left on his deal, coming off of yet another injury plagued season ending in arthroscopic knee surgery. When on the field, he's productive, handles CF. Twins might want off this ride, while the Giants play the odds. This would be palatable based on the Giants review of his medical records.

• LF/DH Giancarlo Stanton: 4/100M left on his deal, coming off of a below average offensive season, trending towards pure DH, still hits ball hard. I’m not a fan of this.

• 3B Ryan McMahon: 4/48M left on his deal, coming off of a below average season. Could pair this with not signing Matt Chapman and going after someone like Cody Bellinger (not a good idea!)

Move #2. Giants sign 3B Matt Chapman to a five-year, $120M contract

Takeaway: Giants get an everyday 3B that has a decently high floor due to upper tier defense.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics:

• Chapman - RHH, 30.11Y, 6'0" 215

• 581PA .240/.330/.424, 28K%, 11BB%, 110wRC+, 17HR, 4SB, +4OAA

Giants outlook: Matt Chapman will be ages 31-35 through this deal. He's an everyday third baseman that can help cover some of the range limitations the Giants will have with Luciano at SS. Chapman was an elite defender a couple of years ago, but has declined, though it’s still a strength for him. Had somewhat of a down offensive season in 2023, but after video review, I feel confident that he has more in the tank. Underlying power metrics are also still strong and his approach by limiting chases will keep him afloat as he declines physically. Sprint speed in 2023 remained well above average. I think he ages better than the average 31 year old on a five-year deal. The Athletic projected him at 5/95M, MLB Trade Rumors at 6/150. I went with MLBTR's AAV and The Athletic's years to get to 5/120. I would be comfortable going up to 5/130M. I project him to be to be at 12-13 WAR over the 5-year deal. Zaidi was an Assistant General Manager for the A's when Chapman was drafted in the first round out of Cal State-Fullerton in 2014. Bob Melvin was the manager throughout Chapman's time in Oakland (2017-21). Chapman has a qualifying offer attached to him, the penalty is discussed in the next section.

Alternative: If this isn't possible, I would look to spend the money elsewhere, like taking on Patrick Corbin's salary if he comes with someone like RF Lane Thomas. Then at third, I would go into the season with J.D. Davis, and hope Casey Schmitt's bat develops.

Move #3. Giants sign RHP Sonny Gray to a three-year, $72M contract, with a player option after Year 1

Takeaway: Giants add a top of the rotation starter without having to spend over 100M.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics: Including a player option after year 1.

• 34.4Y, 5'10" 195

• 184IP 156H 55BB 183K 2.79 ERA, 66 ERA-, 67 FIP-

Giants outlook: Farhan Zaidi noted in his end of the year press conference that the Giants would only be interested in adding a front-line starter, Sonny Gray certainly fit the bill in 2023, finishing as a Cy Young finalist in the AL. Gray will be aged 34-36 through this three year deal and at his smaller build (5'10" 195) brings to question his long-term durability. His track record provides some comfort here, he has made at least 23 starts in the four full regular seasons since 2019, making at least 31 starts twice in that span. In 2023, he tweaked his sweeper to throw it harder, while upping the usage, turning its effectiveness into one of the best pitches in baseball. He was comfortable throwing it to both RHH and LHH. He throws his 4-seam FB, sinker, and sweeper about 60% of the time, with the rest coming from an above average CB, above average cutter. His FB velocity has held steady in the 92-93 range the past few seasons. He had a few minor injuries in the 2022 season after not being ready to open the season. He revamped his offseason training and showed up for the 2023 season in excellent shape, getting stronger in the lower half. He noted at the end of this season that money is important, but not the only factor in free agency, with being close to his family in Nashville also being considered. SF to Nashville is a tough trip, so that might make this a hard signing. 3/72M is the The Athletic projection, I would be comfortable going up to 4/90M as per MLB Trade Rumors. The option after the first year is to buy down the deal a little bit and help with giving SF more of a consideration. I project him to at 8-9 WAR over the course of the three seasons. Zaidi was a Director of Baseball Operations for the A's when they drafted Gray, in the first round out of Vanderbilt, in 2011. Bob Melvin was the manager throughout his time in Oakland (2013-17). Gray has a qualifying offer attached to him, the penalty is discussed in the next section.

Alternatives: I would look at LHP Shōta Imanaga at 4/48M or RHP Seth Lugo at 2/30M. Imanaga has one of the best fastballs in professional baseball, which is a good foundation to have. I like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but have some concerns about how he will hold up physically and at the price it's going to take, it really hurts to not get production from a player like him. I think he is a big move that you make when the team can withstand a payroll load without production, like the Dodgers would be able to. I don’t think the Giants are in a position to be able to do that right now.

Move #4. Giants trade 1B Wilmer Flores and OF Austin Slater to Twins for OF Max Kepler and INF Michael Helman

Takeaway: Giants get an everyday RF who hits for power, good fit defensively for AT&T Park. Minnesota gets one of the best CF playing LHP mashers in baseball, and a cheap 1B/DH who had a strong year.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics: Wilmer Flores has a mutual option in 2025, a player option for 3.5M, and if declined, a team option for 8.5M.

• Kepler - LHH, 31.1Y, 6'4" 225

  • 491PA .260/.332/.484, 22K%, 9BB%, 124 wRC+, 24HR, 1SB, +4OAA

• Helman (A/AA/AAA) - 27.4Y, RHH, 5'11" 195

  • 166PA .302/.368/.544, 14K%, 7BB%, 7HR, 8SB

Giants outlook: Max Kepler will be entering his age 31 season, free agent after 2024. Kepler had a strong 2023 season offensively, his best since 2019. Set career bests in barrel rate, hard hit rate, and average exit velocity. He was above average vs. both RHP and LHP, so can be plugged in everyday. He is an average runner, and has maintained his sprint speed from the past few years. Solidly above average in RF over his career with an above average arm that'll play well at AT&T. Played some CF earlier in his career, but those days are likely behind him. Even with his strong 2023 season, I see more upside with him next season after video review. He started getting more aggressive with the first pitch a few months into the season and that elevated his offensive production. He improved his ability to manage fastballs up in the zone. These changes along with a long history of having a good approach, limiting chase rate, will enhance his ability to find success on pitches he should do damage on. Kepler's power will likely be affected by playing in AT&T, Twins home park is roughly middle of the pack in HR park factor for LHH, whereas AT&T is one the toughest. The two seasons prior to 2023, he had some warning track power issues, which could return playing in a tougher environment. There is a backdoor play here of being able to QO Kepler at the end of the season if he has a good year, and recoup some compensation. I project him to be a 3 WAR player this season. Michael Helman is an org guy in the Twins system, with defensive versatility, some power, and a good approach. He's not necessary if the Twins balk at including him. Wilmer Flores had a strong 2023, but I think he regresses in 2024, and his positional limitations make a tough fit on the roster, so I look at him as being able to sell high. Austin Slater has value, but will be a free agent at the end of the season, and I would like to see more upside from his roster spot. I would be willing to add a 40+ FV prospect from the Giants side to make it more attractive to Minnesota, might even go up to a 45 FV prospect depending on who it is.

Twins outlook: Minnesota is reportedly looking to not add payroll and likely would try to decrease payroll. Kepler is a pending free agent and unlikely to be re-signed, and outfield is an area of depth for Minnesota with Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner. Larnach, Castro, Kirilloff, and Wallner all struggled against LHP in 2023. Minnesota's outfielders finished 19th in wRC+ vs. LHP, so Slater is a strong platoon fit. Slater can also provide defensive versatility being average in CF, and above average in the corners.

Byron Buxton had knee surgery this offseason, but hopes to return to playing CF next season. That could open up a DH spot that the Twins fill with Edouard Julien and play Kirilloff at 1B, so not a direct path to playing time for Flores, who had a strong offensive season and can wear a few hats at a low cost. He can also be brought back in 2025 with a team option that is reasonable. He provides coverage for Polanco at 2B, Kirilloff/Julien at 1B, Lewis at 3B, and of course at DH as well. Adding these two players allows Minnesota to break up their lefty heavy outfield options with a quality platoon bat, and fill a power hitting utility role on the cheap.

Alternative: The alternative here is to not do this trade nor sign Jorge Soler and instead sign OF Jung-hoo Lee (4/60M), plan to play him in CF, and move Mike Yastrzemski to RF. Lee shows some intriguing ability and will be relatively young for a free agent signing. But I've heard concerns from a source about his ability to play an average CF, especially coming off of ankle surgery, and I have questions about whether he will hit for enough power to play in the corners. Might be a tweener that you're constantly looking to upgrade.

Move #5. Giants sign DH Jorge Soler to a three-year, $45M contract

Takeaway: One of the best power hitters available in free agency, fits in as the DH who can knock it out of any ballpark.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics:

• RHH, 32.2Y, 6'4" 235

• 580PA .250/.341/.512, 24K%, 11BB%, 126wRC+, 36HR, 1SB, -5OAA

Giants outlook: Jorge Soler will be ages 32-24 through this deal. He has an elite ability to barrel balls up with high exit velocity, and has a good amount of selectiveness at the plate as well. 2023 was his second best offensive season of his career and I saw reasons on video review to believe that can continue for another couple of years. His time in the outfield needs to be limited, so that puts a ton of pressure on his bat. Soler had a serious back issue that affected him during the 2022 season, and has also had some oblique injuries in the past few years. I believe he'll hold up offensively to be worth paying a good amount for a DH, if he can stay on the field. I project him to be 4-5 WAR player over the course of his three seasons.

Alternative: I strongly considered Mitch Garver here. I was beating the drum for him as a starting catching option in 2023 when the plan was to go with Joey Bart. Now, it's as a DH, with a rare start at catcher. His bat plays at DH, hitting for well above average against both RHP and LHP. His struggles with being able to stay healthy is ultimately what led me to go with Soler, though giving Soler a three year deal does give me discomfort. Rhys Hoskins is another name I considered, but I don't think there is enough high end power for it to play at AT&T and as a DH. If the Giants went with Garver instead, I would not complain, especially if it’s on a two-year deal for slightly lesser AAV

Move #6. Giants trade RHP Tristan Beck and RHP Kai-Wei Teng to the Cardinals for OF Dylan Carlson

Takeaway: Giants trade from pitching depth to add a young platoon option in CF with some upside. Cardinals shore up pitching depth.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics: Carlson is under team control through the 2026 season.

• SHH, 25.5Y, 6'2" 205

• 255PA .219/.318/.333, 19K%, 10BB%, 84wRC+, 5HR, 3SB, +3OAA (CF)

Giants Outlook: Dylan Carlson was St. Louis' top prospect a few years ago, had good years in 2021 and 2022 albeit with declining offensive performance. 2023 went poorly for him, ending in August with an oblique and ankle injury, the ankle required surgery later. Even in a relatively poor year, he did hit LHP well, and has done so throughout his career. He also does a good job limiting chases out of the zone. He has been notably above average in CF the past couple seasons, though he was projected to be a corner type as a prospect. Has a strong arm. After watching video of him, I think there is potential to adjust his LHH swing to generate more power and be more competitive vs. RHP. That is the upside I see with this move, and a fallback as a younger imitation Austin Slater. I see Tristan Beck as the 7th SP on the depth chart right now and Kai Wei Teng at 8th or 9th, with Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black coming up quickly behind them.

Cardinals Outlook: Carlson is behind Lars Nootbar in CF, Jordan Walker in RF, and Tyler O'Neill in LF, while also competing with Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and Richie Palacios for playing time. Cardinals are in sore need of starting pitching depth and they get two cracks at finding a piece with Tristan Beck and Kai-Wei Teng. Beck had a solid debut throwing 85 innings at 93 ERA- this season. He has flashed the pitch mix needed to turn the lineup over a few times. Teng has racked up strikeout totals his entire time in the Giants org. He has great feel for a good slider that can get outs at the major league level. Needs a step up in control to be competitive as a starter, but can see him getting 6-9 outs per appearance. Teng is Rule 5 eligible, so some risk for St. Louis that he is lost if this trade occurs before the draft. He can be substituted with a similar level player.

Alternative: The Giants can just go with an internal option and allow someone from the Luis Matos, Wade Meckler, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos group to grab the role. Matos' struggles defensively is what made me consider looking outside the org to fill this role. If Matos can shore up that part of his game, he is the superior option here. Harrison Bader is on the free agency market and fits this role well. Depending on how the other moves in this plan play out, he is a worthwhile option to consider on a 1/10M deal. If DeSclfani and cash is pulled out of the Yelich deal, I would look to see if the Cardinals are interested in taking him on for Carlson. He would be an option with more of a track record.

Move #7. Giants sign SS Elvis Andrus to a one-year, $5M contract

Takeaway: Giants shore up the shortstop position with a respected veteran, who can still handle the position.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics:

• RHH, 35.6Y, 6'0" 210

• 406PA .251/.304/.358, 18K%, 6BB%, 81wRC+, 6HR, 12SB, +4OAA

Giants outlook: Elvis Andrus has been a mainstay in the big leagues since 2009, collecting over 2,000 hits while his defensive value carried his production. At age 35, he still shows an ability to be an above average defensive shortstop in the big leagues. OAA had him at +4 this season and +6 last season at the position. Andrus had a fine offensive season in 2022 and rode it to his most productive year since 2017. Reverted to career averages in 2023, and projects to be there again in 2024. I see Andrus as an inexpensive backup option to Luciano at SS. If he’s needed in a starting capacity for an extended period, he's not going to add much with the bat, but he'll be quality defensively. In a bench role, he'll be a good defensive substitute late in the game, and a respected voice in the clubhouse. I'm assuming he's sign-able at this price because he's not on MLBTR's top 50 free agents, nor their honorable mentions (22 listed). #50 on their list is at 1/12M, so discounting down from there.

Alternative: I really wanted to figure out a way to extract Gabriel Arias from Cleveland, but just couldn't get a handle on their plans at SS and what it would take to get him. Is he the guy for Cleveland, or just the guy filling out the role right now? I think he can be a lot better offensively than he has been so far (402 PA, 77 wRC+), while being able to stick at SS for awhile. Jorge Mateo is another option to consider on the trade market. He can't really hit, but is effective defensively at SS, can play the OF, and is an elite runner. From the NRI potential pool, I think Kevin Newman is an okay option.

That covers all seven major moves that I have mapped out. Next, how the payroll, roster, and lineups project to look after these changes.

Payroll

The simple table summarizes how the team’s CBT calculated payroll looks after these moves:

• The CBT payroll figures are from Cot’s Baseball Contracts (hosted on BP). FanGraphs’ Roster Resource calculates current projected payroll at $2M higher.

• After these moves, I project the Giants to have a $231M payroll, leaving them about $6M under the CBT tax line’s first threshold. $231M would have put the Giants at the 6th highest payroll in 2023. They were in the 3-7 range from 2012-18, so not completely out of line to expect they can get back to that level relative to the league.

• By signing Matt Chapman, the Giants would lose their second-highest selection in the 2024 MLB Draft, as well as $500K from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. By signing Sonny Gray as well, they will also forfeit their third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500K.

• If the Yelich trade is modified to exclude DeSclafani and the cash, I project the Giants to be ~1.5M into the tax, which means they would need to pay a 20% penalty, which shakes out to be about $300K.

26-Man Roster

Lineups

Mitch Haniger has hit LHP well over his career, so that is the role I see for him on the roster. Spelling Yelich, Kepler, and if he can pick up 1B, Wade Jr. as well.

Concluding Thoughts

1. All of this seems doable, and instances where it seems like the Giants are getting the better end of the deal, I can see adding more to make it realistic and still valuing it as worth doing.

2. These moves add real power threats to the lineup, while having seven out of the nine project to be average or better offensively overall next season

3. Maintains org philosophy of avoiding long-term pitcher deals, but adds a reliable front-line starter

4. No major prospect is traded in these proposed moves, and if anybody is needed to be added to make the deals work, they are likely coming outside of the top 5. Losing two high draft picks and $1M in international bonus pool does hurt though.

5. Team gets better defensively at 3B, LF, RF, gets worse at SS. Not being able to find a better option than Yastrzemski in CF was a failure on my part, but it's not easy to acquire players who can hit RHP like he can and play an average CF. Those options need to be developed internally. Improving defense in LF and RF with Yelich and Kepler, takes some of the harsh spotlight off of Yastrzemski in CF.

6. In my review of all the top free agents, there was one name that jumped out as someone to avoid, Cody Bellinger. There are a number of warning signs here for me and if he ends up going for more than $200M, it could get bad quickly.

7. There is a good deal of financial risk involved with these transactions with a lot of money going to early to mid 30-year olds. But I believe the bigger risk is to make half-measure moves, hope for accelerated development and production from the young crop of players to build a competitive team for the next few years. The next window should be led by homegrown players, but I believe in pushing financially to make the intervening teams as strong as possible. The contracts being added with these moves shouldn’t affect the team’s ability retain their homegrown stars, or affect being able to supplement them in 2027 and beyond. Giants have often talked about keeping financial flexibility open to add to a homegrown core, I think the time to use that is now. Ultimately, these moves should bring excitement back to the team, put butts in the seats, and give the franchise a decent chance at another championship.

If I get any feedback that I consider to be significant and important, I will make v2.0 plan post, otherwise this is it. I have a couple more article ideas for the next week, but after that I’ll be returning to work and my time for baseball will grow short again, so posts here will likely be limited, but we’ll see what inspiration strikes me.

Thank you for reading and excuse any typos or poor leaps in logic, I preemptively blame it on baby brain.

—Avi

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