With so much political attention and media coverage focused on next Spring’s municipal elections, one organization, the Coalition of African-American Leaders, is working to ensure Chicagoans are well informed about the other elections-the one for the first-ever fully elected school board and its president.

One of COAL’s committees developed an exhaustive survey that touches on everything from the candidates’ political persuasion to campaign financial contributors to interacting with the state legislature.

The organization’s spokesperson didn’t say when or how the questinnaire would be distributed or results tallied. It was mentioned though the final product would be available to the public.

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The survery’s greatsst value may be it allows responents to voice opinions on several key issues, and not just give yes or no answers. Although surveys generally don’t have a large response rates, expect the COAL survey to counter that traditionm primarily because the election represents the first time since the 1980-s that there will be a fully elected school board, rather than one appointed by whoever is mayor. While the 21 people on the ballot will be vying for seats in their respective districts, the five people running for board president will be competing citywide.

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At first blush, the breadth of the questionnaire should provide Chicagoans a thorough look at the candidates; convedfsely the sheer volume of the number of questions means there is a real risk of “survey fatigue” where respondents simply get tired of wriring their answers and simply quit providing feedback. In those instances the surveys don’t get retrned and COAL iss unable to deliver the hoped for results.

Regrdless of the response rate COAL is to be commended for advancing the approach that is needed and overdue in our community. That approach is educating the electorate rather than trying to persuade voters who often don’t have a full grasp of the issue(s) before them.

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To date ,that lesson has escaped Mayor Brandon Johnson. Thanks to YouTube part of Johnson’s avoid-the-tough-question legacy can be viewed ad infinitum Mr Mayor why are you running away, NBC's MaryAnn Ahern asked when Johnson left out of a church through the back and refused to speak with reporter.

That move was worse than no comment, which is a public relations no-no. Last week the mayor attended a community meeting in South Shore where residents were complaining about a proposed $1 billion quantum computing park at the former US Steel site on the lakefront.

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Boos reigned from the audience as Johnson began to speak. His address was less than three minutes. Instead of staying and talking to the residents in small groups or individually Johnson left through a side door-visibly upset. Johnson booed out of community meeting.

Is the mayor conerned he might change his mind if he listens to the ideas, thoughts, and opinions of those who don’t think like he does? Minimally, he owes it to his constituents to hear them out, even if some of their utterances are redundant. From the poitical perspective, it’s very likely by walking out of that community meeting; Johnson lost votes, while he simultaneously and inadvertently sent some to other candidates. It is not a smart strategy for someone up for re-election.

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Prediction: Johnson won’t seek re-election

In a little more than six months Chicagoans will head to the polls to vote for alders, a couple of CTU referenda; and for mayor. No one should be surprised if among the long list of those seeking mayor’s job, the incubent’s name is not among them.

Though asked repeatedly, Johnson has yet to indicate wheter he will seek to return to the fifth floor of City Hall; although he did grant permission for an unnamed group of supporters to circulate nominating petitions to get him on the Feb.23,2007 ballot. Giving that permission is as close as a clear sign as possible he will forego another run.

In Chicago, petition-gathering can be the reason a candidate, or incumbent doesn’t appear on a ballot. That is because there are pethora of moves the public can make to try to demonstrate a mayoral candidate doesn’t have the required 12,500 legitimate signatures.

Signatures can be invalidated because:

• it doesn’t match the signature on the voter registation card

• the signer is not a Chicago resident

• of a discreperancy between the date a pettiton was signed and the date it was circulated

• the person circulating the petition didn’t sign it

• here was a typo in the candidate’s name

Because there is a fee connected to challenges after a certain number; better financed candidates can afford an near unlimited amount of challenges. At this point, Johnson’s $600,000 war chest; and the idea of spending money on challenges is out his campaign’s reach, unless it sacrfices some media buys. Yet, the better financed candidates can challenge the majority of signatures Johnson’s volunteer group presents.

Another sign Johnson is likely not to be a candidate next year is he currently doing no visible major fundraisers-the kinds that bring in six figures in one night. There was no mayoral track record for opponents to critique when Johnson ran in 2023. Should he run next year, the fact that he incured a 50-0 vote against a property tax will haunt him.

Fewer than 14 percent of persons polled by the University of Chicago last month responded that Johnson should run for re-election; with 52 percent said no, and 29 percent were recorded as no opinion. His approval rating has been stuck around 22-23 percent for the past year.

Will Johnson listen to his inner circle, or to the people is the key question?

It can’t be described as a groundswell, but the number of people who are voicing outrage over the fact that Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulis is running for re-election in November, and three months later will be in the race for mayor of Chicago.

Social media sites are littered with comments that he should be forced to choose one or the other. Giannoulis counters that when a person is looking for a new job, he or she doesn’t quit the one they are currently holding.

Apparently, Chicago voters have short memories as this is practically the identiccal situation when former President Barack Obama - then U.S. Sen. Obama retained that seat while he pursued the Democratic Party’s nomination for POTUS. He campaigned while in the Senate, but didn’t resign until he wass elected President.. There was no hue and cry for him to leave the Senate then. What the detractors are missing is that state law allows for this type of campaigning.

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Another, maybe even bigger matter, that continus to draw the ire of Chicagoans is Giannoulis is sitting on a $22 million war chest. That compares to the paltry $600,000 in the Johnson campaign coffers. Johnson also has had to return more $50,000 in campaign contributions to comply iwth the City’s ethics code.

The business community and unions have been steady contributors to the secretary since he first ran for the U.S. Senate in 2010. Because his camaign commitee is not established for a prticular race, he can drag contributions to whatever capaign he is involved in at the time. So, any prior donations received now could be used in his mayoral race.

With that size financial tool Giannoulis can, and likely will dominate everything from neighborhood newsletters to the advertising on top local teevision network affiiates and radio stations. In other words, everything selling time or space is likely to see Giannoulis buys.

Also look for him to have a steady presence in the city’s Black-owned media ecsystem. That undoutedy is a strategy that allows him to maintain a presence among the mayors base.

His campaign will grab the best time slots and page positions.Opponents, including Johnson, if he decides to run will be left what essentially will be table scraps.

Additionally, Giannoulis can open and fully staff campaign satellite offices in every quadrant of the city-faciitating the ability to attract hyperlocal volunteers. These are the type of vounteers who can influence their neighbors.

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Let’s look at Brandon’s plight

Traditonally, incumbency carriess some inherent advantages-among them are: name recognition, an ample war chest, and a plethora of support and endorsements. Unfortunately, for Mayor Brandon Johnson, about half of the announced and perceived opponents also have high name recognition. That is because they are current or former city, county, or state officehders.

However, heading into the February 2027 primary election, Mayor Brandon Johnson’s only asset is his incumbency; but even that is bogged down with negatives including:

• an approval rating that never reached 30 percent

• poll results that indicated only 14 percent of respondnts think he should seek re-election

• a failed referdum to raise $800,000 in new revenue

• an inability to keep top administrators from the CPD superintendent to the health commissioner to the chief of staff

• being perceived as doing the Chicago Teachers Union’s bidding

The mayor counters those negatives by citing achievements over the last three years that range from Mayor Brandon Johnson’s administration and campaign list key accomplishments across public safety, economic development, housing, labor, and public health:

Public Safety & Criminal Justice

• Crime & Gun Violence Reduction: Oversaw reductions in homicides, shootings, and violent crime from pandemic-era peaks, reaching the lowest homicide levels in decades.ce & Violence Intervention: Increased the detective force to raise homicide clearance rates (reaching77 per cent) and invested over $100MM in Community Violence Intervention (CVI) programs.

• Legal Action on Firearms: Led successful legal actions pressuring gun manufacturer Glock to halt sales of handguns easily modified with convertor switches.

Housing & Neighborhood Development

• Housing Investment: Enacted the Housing and Economic Development Bond to fund affordable housing, neighborhood revitalization, and green social housing initiatives.

• Zoning & Permitting Reforms: Streamlined valuation, entry, and zoning review timelines for city-owned land and commercial conversions from months down to weeks.

• Homelessness Initiatives: Established Chicago’s first Chief Homelessness Officer, released a 5-year blueprint to end homelessness, and expanded non-congregate shelter capacity.

Labor & Economic Policy

• Worker Protections: Passed a citywide ordinance eliminating the subminimum wage for tipped workers and established one of the nation’s most expansive paid leave policies.

• Youth Employment: Expanded citywide summer youth employment and job placement programs.

Public Health & Social Services

• Non-Police Crisis Response: Expanded the Crisis Assistance Response and Engagement (CARE) program to dispatch behavioral health clinicians and paramedics to mental health emergencies.

• Mental Health Support: Reopened city-operated mental health clinics and expanded localized public health access.

Johnson's incumbency, like no mayor before him, brings a tremendous irony. During the last three years, there have been several instances, without any prompting, and frankly out of context; Johnson has proclaimed he would be Chicago’s longest serving mayor-yet today is shying away from announcing plans for a second term.

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News outlets aren’t giving the rest of the field much more than a mention, even though there are prominent well-known politicos in that group including:

Next year’s race will mark Wilson’s fourth run at the mayoral seat. He has never finished higher than third place. Wilson is likely to pull votes away frm Johnson.

Political rumors had Quigly seeking the mayor’s office in 2019 and 2023-they proved to be nothing more than rumors as he didn’t run. Mendoza’s lone bid for mayor came in 2019, she claimed the fifth spot in a contest that inclued Wilson. She garnred slightly more than 50,000 votes which was 9 percent of the turnout.

On August 8, businesman Liam Stanton announced he was no longer a candidate for mayor. He said “it is time to come together’ and noted he is endorsing Giannoulis.

He might think that level of engagement is coy or cute, but at its roots it reveals a political naivety that hasn’t improved in the three years he’s been on the fifth floor.

Word salad or gobbledygook is the most accurate descriptions of Johnson’s responses about re-election. The first-term mayor doesn’t seem to understand that not disclosing his re-election plans cause his appointees to be conceerned if they will have City jobs in a year. Most of his top appointees didn’t come from the ranks of a union job within the City, so they won’t be able to fall back into their old role, like Johnson can do with the Chicago Teachers Union.

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Some long-term employees have likely put retirement plans in abeyance based on the prospect of Johnson coming back for a second term. That possibility could mean a shuffling of ranks in their respective departments. If they could move up because of the changes they can receive a more lucrative pension package upon retirement. He also can lessen the impact of the lifestyle change his family will experience if he doesn’t seek re-election. His children likely have experinced some conveniences and perks their classmates haven’t been exposed to. Now, is the time to explain many of those niceities will vanish.

Johnsofn squeaked by Paul Vallas in the 2023 mayoral eection because Johnson was an unkknown quanity, having never served on the municipal level; secondly because Vallas had a poor image and track record among Black voters. Johnson emerged a winner.

Aside from the human aspect of delaying any announcement, the mayor is conceding a considerasble amoint of cash that contributors will direct to some of his many opponents. Leaving money like that on the table raises suspicions the mayor will not seek reelection.

In 2027, Johnson willl have to defend a record replete with defeats from the city council and citizenry. His promise and follow through not to raise property certainly swayed some voters his way. In the upcoming election it is a committmet he can’t realistically offer as Chicago’s budget is more than $1. 2 billion short; and the moves Team Johnson used to wipe out the current fiscal year’s budget deficit can’t be put in play again.

When asked to rank Johnson and/or his performance, poll respondents answered underwhellming for the mayor. One of the earliest polls, taken about a year after he was in office, put his approval rating at 6.6 percent-the lowest of any modern mayor. Even though it has since rebonded to high 20 percentile, a different and more recent poll found fewer than 14 percent want Johnson to run for a second term. The mayor is dismissive of such polls, but never shows anything to counter their veracity.

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Even prediction markets, such as Kalshi, and Poymarket, which allow betting on the outcome of nearly anything, has Johnson at the midde of the pack regarding who will be Chicago’s next mayor.

Campaign war chests-something far more tangible than polls- show Johnson is traiing announced and rumored candidates. At best he is the midde of a pack of 10 when it comes to campaign funds. Johnson’s last reported numbers from the Illionis Board of Elecions revealed a paltry $600,000 while other candidates showed more than $1 million in their coffers.

Even with such high name recognition, the mayor will still need money to pay campaign staff, research, conduct voter engagement and outreach, signage and advertising.

A lack of funding for advertising caused Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle to alter her challenge against Lori Lightfoot for mayor.

Through the poor poll numbers, anemic fundraising, city council defeats; Johnson has maintained a game face, and comes across as someone who will be sitting comforttably in the mayor’s seat after the 2027 election.

While it rarely spilled over to the public, at times the friction between him and the mayor was almost palable.. One not so private instance was when Johnson decided not to renew the contract for the gunshot technology apparatus called ShotSpotter. The move came even though Snelling explained repeatedly to Johnson, and the public, it was a valuable crime fighting tool. Johnson, with no law enforcement background, repeatedly demened the technogy as “walkie-talkies on a stick.” Some city hall insiders noted that Snelling felt alienated at times from the decision-making process on public safety, another contributing factor to his resignation.

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Former CPD Superintendent Fred Waller, who served as intrerim superintendent before Snelling was hired will return to interim status. Waller was most recently depurty director in the superintendent’s office. He was paid $182,000 in that role, and another $152,000 in pension payments per year. Sneling was earning $268,000 per year

.Johnson has seven months left in this his first term. Given that it takes several months to vet, interview and get city council approval for a superintendent; Waller is likely to finish what would have ben Snelling’s term. Non CPD candidates for the job are likely to take pause to a mayor up for re-election with an approval rating substantially south of 50 percent.

This space was used recently to suggest Johnson tell Chicagoans whether he will seek re-election. The sentiment here was he should step up and say whether or not he will seek a second term.

The mayor’s anemic campaign war chest of only about $1 milion, a $10-million organized campaign to unseat the mayor and several council members, as well as a grassroots anti-incumbent organization, Flip Chicago Red, are the barriers to a second term for Johnson.

Should Johnson decide to run again, another challenge will be explaining the disproportinately high turnover rate among his appointees. Every administration has the usual two, or three-person churn of people who voluntarily leave about the halfway point of the term.

In this mayor’s term, the departures started as early as three months in, and there has been a steady stream leading up to Snelling resigning. The administration is operating with a host of interim appointments, or the agency/departments has no leader. Those areas include:

Commissioner- Department of Public Health

Interim Commissioner-Department of Public Affairs and Special Events

Commissioner- Department Transportation ( waiting city council approval)

No leader- Civilian Office of Police Accountability

President -no leader since 2025 -Chicagohicago Transit Authority

CEO-Chicago Housing Authority

The call for such action was obviously a knee jerk response to the two dozen shootings, with eight fatalities, over the Father’s Day weekend; although some maintain this is an appeal that has been made to the City for at least five years. They are suggesting the department be given a budget of $100 million.

Johnson and the supporters at the news conference seem to thiink this is a splendid idea to stanch the daily shootings throughout the city. The matter no one seems to be looking into is how will Chicago pay for such a new department, even if it replaces the current Office of Community Safety. The stark reality is with a $1.15 Billion deficit next fiscal year, Chicago will have a serious challenge sustaining current department levels, let alone adding a new one

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That element, along with a couple of others makes the idea seriously flawed. The preachers said they plan to present a more robust proposal to the Chicago City Council later this year. The pressing question is why present the idea now if it hasn’t been fully thought out and researched? Johnson undoubtedly is on board with it as he will be seeking the endorsements from these same if he decides to seek re-election. The announcement seeems to be aimed at garnering attention more than presenting a solution.

If the group, or a faction of it, does actually present a plan later hopefully it will include:

• ascertaining how much of the budget is dedicated to the program and how much will be directed to salaries and other personne costs

• a commitment from the city’s approximate 4,000 churches to each raise $25,000 for the cause

• getting CPS to look into its inventory of still vacant schools and contributing one at a nominal cost

• striking an agreement with a community bank e.g. Wintrust to serve as a repository for the funds

• meeting with prospective employers seeking commitments to provide jobs and/or paid training with a target of 1,000 jobs

If the prosposed department is established, it will not be under the sole purview of whomever the mayor is. And whoever is selected to lead the Department should come from the rank of one of the legacy organizations-CeaseFire, Acclivus, Target Area Development Corp, or the University of Chicago Crime Lab- that have been addressing the issue of gun violence for decades. If the appointment is a political one, the idea has failed before it started.

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This faith community has an opportunity to demonstrate how to develop an ideal public-private arrngement that can yield impactful results; while demonstrating how a germ of an idea can become life-changing if peoperly thought out, as long its well-researched, involve people who aren’t just looking for photo-ops; as well as doing some of the heavy lifting themselves.

Historically and traditionally, an incumbent would hold a comfortable lead in the fundraising race; and only would be looking for contributions from those who had been overlooked, or from backers who usually made multiple contributions. At this juncture, Johnson is doing neither. His campaign war chest fror the last couple of months has hovered between $800,000 and $900,000. To be competitive in a Chicago mayoral race the winner needs to be in the $10 million ballpark. His non-disclosure is giving potential and expressed opponents the opportunity to raise money from would-be Johnson backers.

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Even though he was able to haul in slightly more than $12 million for his 2023 run, with that $6.3 million coming from the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and its affiliates; and another $5.7 million from the Chicago Teachers Union- Johnson won’t see anything near those totals this time. The chief reason is the two labor behemoths are feuding who rightfully can represent a section of CPS wokers.

Add to that that some CTU members sued the union’s leadership for makng the contribjtions to Johnson without a vote by the rank-and-file. Johnson’s total puts in the middle of the pack of expected opponents.

Sizeable conributions from another source-the local business community-are in questionl as Johnson stubbornly attempted to implement a $21 per person head tax on the city’s largest corporations. If the mayor has a strong working relationship with the business community it’s not evident. No one from that cohort has stepped up and offered an early endorsement for Johnson’s re-election. Incumbents typically get businesses’ enordorsements because business owners, at every level, value predictability and stability-the staples that incumbency offer.

In the last several months, he has confused the role of ambasador with that of mayor. Johnson has averaged at least one groundbreaking or ribboncutting once a week. The mayor chooses his seemingly insatible appetite for photo-ops rather than a ramped up schedule with his financial teams to addres the guarateed $1 billion-plus budget deficit for the next fiscal year. Groundbreakings and ribbboncutting can seamlessly proceed without him. His presence, however, is very much needed on all fiscal matters so his staff will know how to proceed. Failing to address this looming crisis adds validity to speculation Johnson will not seek a second term

If the Chicago Bears follow through on their threats to leave Soldier Field and relocate to Arlington Heights or Hammond, IN, the brunt of the blame surely is to fall on Johnson and tarnish his image. That is despite the fact that every party involved with the relocation discussions share equally in the blame.

There is the possibility that the mayor sees no other viable Black candidate entering the race, and subsequently believes he has the Black vote locked. If that is the case Johnson is making a huge mistake. There are still plenty of raw feelings in the Black community oveer the perception he favored migrants shipped in from Texas over Black residents. That is a bloc that will not suport him.

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Additionally, a Black-led grassroots organization, Flip Chicago Red, has targeted Johnson, and have a candidate, Danielle Carter-Walters, who will try to get on the Feb. 23 ballot to oppose the mayor. Whatever votes this fledging organization gets likely won’t get its candidate in the runoff; but are likely to siphon votes away from Johnson

Another Johnson protagonist is billionaire, financier Michael Sacks, Last year he launched an opposition campaign to Johnson’s ill-fated corporate head tax on the city’s largest corporations. Sacks is also the father of a $10 million campaign aimed at unseating not only the incumbent mayor, but also many seated city council membersav

With less than $1 million in his war chest, it’s inconceivable Johnson can stave off the Sacks assault, Flip Chicago Red, and his better-financed opponents.

Stepping aside and choosng not to seek re-election certainly would bruise his outszed ego; but not be nearly as damaging as someone interrupting his self-proclaimed plans to be Chicago’s longest-serving mayor.

The start of the school district’s fiscal year is just two months away, and it is staring at a $732 million budget deficit. Johnson is opposed to the district’s plan to chop some teaching positions to tackle the deficit. The mayor’s opposition to that idea defies logic, fiscal sense, and any other type of sense, sort of.

By agreeing with the Chicago Board of Education’s recommendation of trimming teachers’ ranks, Johnson is suggesting, but not proving, that he is not a minion of the Chicago Teachers Union. This is the entity largely responsible for his making it to City Hall’s fifth floor by pouring millions of dollars and countless volunteer hours into his 2023 campaign.

He has generously returned the favor by signing the union’s new, upgraded four-year contract, as well as unilaterally providing extended paternity leave for teachers, while denying the police officers’ union request for the same benefit.

Whether he will have CTU’s backing if he decides to seek re-election is questionable. The union has gotten everything it asked for, so in theory, Johnson has served his purpose for them. What’s also questionable is whether he will seek a second term.

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Conversely, if the mayor decides to side with the board, he risks losing the financial and grassroots, door-knocking support of the teachers’ union. But he would be fulfilling the fiduciary duties to Chicago residents that come with being the mayor. That decision could easily cause many detractors to overlook some previous perceived shortcomings and cast their ballot for him in the February primary, if he runs.

While the majority of current board members want to see fewer teachers on the payroll, that might not be the case when the first-ever elected school board is seated in January 2027; through some parliamentary maneuvers, the new board could reverse the decision on teachers.

The district has few options other than cuts. Its general obligations bonds have a junk status rating. That translates into a tough time finding an investor for them, and once the deal is struck to purchase the bonds, the district would be saddled with an astronomical amount of interest to pay.

When the budget shortfall was predicted last year, Johnson attempted to force then-CPS Superintendent Pedro Martinez to secure a short-term loan, even though the interest would have been more than the amount borrowed. Johnson’s sole focus was on wiping out the deficit, even if it meant new debt.

The mantra of Johnson and a small cadre of board members is that Springfield needs to provide more state funding for CPS. The mayor has not been successful in corralling support from the state legislators on other requests.

In opposing the board’s recent suggestion for teacher cuts, Johnson countered that the City and the school district need “more progressive taxation.” Several tax rates were increased last year to plug the City’s budget hole. That means they are not available for the upcoming fiscal year.

Almost since their first day in office, the Johnson Administration’s mantra has been the buzzword “inherited.” In the case of CPS, the word is extremely apropos. District officials went on a hiring spree from 2019-24, the year after Johnson took office, when it added more than 2,600 individuals to the teaching ranks, and another 4,100 paraprofessionals (classroom assistants). That brought the totals up to 24,198 and 18,834, respectively.

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The personnel were added despite the reality that student enrollment fell by more than 65,000 from 2016 to 2026. If the totals for enrollment were reversed, it would make sense for Johnson to advocate for keeping the teaching ranks intact.

Even if Johnson and the board come to an agreement on cutting teachers, the district is still faced with the prospect of spending hundreds of thousands of dollars annually for the maintenance and upkeep of two dozen vacant school buildings.

After former Mayor Rahm Emanuel closed 49 elementary schools and one high school in 2013, the district insisted those schools would be repurposed and sold. Even though 12 buildings are empty, exterior and interior maintenance is still required. Neither district officials nor the mayor has mentioned any strategy to unload the still-vacant buildings,

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In addition to the CPS debacle, the City of Chicago has yet to identify how it will handle its looming $1 billion-plus deficit.

If the February 2027 municipal primary elections were a movie we could expect a cameo appearance from a hero who would swoop in, share an unorthodox campaign strategy, bring $11 million; and get the embattled incumbent mayor reelected.

With those elections a little less than 300 days away, it appears Brandon Johnson will need a Hollywood script to best the bevy of challengers looking to unseat him. Rather than implementing and proposing policies to shore up his bid for re-election; Johnson is spending his days attending ground breakings and ribbon cuttings. It’s odd behavior for a candidate whose war chest is a paltry $800,000 compared to opponents who are disclosing they have seven-figure pots of cash to bring to the race. He also is shifting away from issues under his control with a near daily barrage of swipes aimed at President Donald Trump. He castigates the President, but Trump continues to exercise his disdain for Chicago.

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The first -term mayor parachuted into City Hall with a passel of unproven revenue ideas. He surrounded himself with cabinet members and advisors who had no more experience in municipal government than he had; and the result was the overwhelming majority of his ideas died public and tragic deaths. There was a near consensus though that Johnson earned an A for trying.

Those ideas, many pushed by the National Democratic Party to mayors across the country might have had a better chance if they followed the advice of Comedian/Game Show Host Steve Harvey which is “that sometimes you first do what you have to do to get to do what you want to do.” By not adhering to traditional policies and standards, Johnson reversed that adage and wasn’t able to get what he wanted. One such reversl as he failed to forge a strong alliance with a cohort of city council members, or with the Legislative Black Caucus in Springfield. And with everyone of those shortcomings, the mayor found some one or something else to blame.

Even if Johnson could miraculously match the $10 million he needed to stave off opponents in the 2027 race, he will face antagonists who have cobbled together millions of dollars-at least 10-to oust the mayor and progressive allies.

Team Johnson would need to raise $33,000 every day until Election Day to match the $10 million he spent last time to win.

Adding to the plot is the resear.ch revealing Johnson only racks up 42 percent approval; while 46 percent of the 500 Chicagoans surveyed said they didn’t approve of Johnson’s work

Under normal circumstances an incumbent could turn to his largest campaign supporters for a large and quick infusion of cash. In this instance that avenue isn’t available because Johnson’s largest benefactor was the Chicago Teachers Union. CTU is under federal investigation after some members sued the organization maintaining that because there was no vote by the membership to dole out more than $1 million to Johnson in 2023. That triggered a federal audit.

Another traditional campaign contribution source for incumbents is usually the business community. Johnson has had a tenuous relationship, at best, with the city’s business sector. Those with City contracts roundly rejected a Johnson appeal last year to reduce their billings by 3 percent. The money was needed, the mayor explained, to help reduce the budget deficit. The mayor took a business-related hit when he proffered the notion of a $21 per employee “head tax” on Chicago’s largest employers,

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Johnson may have recently alienated a substantial bloc of voters when he acknowledged that his administration gives priority to Black males in the hiring process. He was able to narrowly defeat Paul Vallas in 2023 with the help of the white and Latino voters. Saying they have to take a backseat as potential top tier administrators may backfire when the election comes around. Additionally, the administration is under Department of Justice investigation for that very practice. He justified his position by noting that during the tenure of former Mayor Rahm Emanuel 70 percent of top administrators were white males.

Even though it’s been three years since the first contingent of Central and South American migrants were sent here from Texas; many in the Chicago’s Black community blast Johnson, claiming he prioritized the migrants’ needs over longtime Black Chicago residents’.

The mayor usually counters criticism of his initiatives by citing the trickle of success he and his backers tout. Those achievements are generally overshadowed by his protracted feud with the former CPS superintendent. Pedro Martinez refused to resign, even though Johnson was pushing in that direction. The school district has been in flux and just recently announced it will end the school year with a $45 million deficit. That comes on top of the City’s projected $1.2 billion deficit for the coming fiscal year.

His administration has yet to explain why he has not appointed directors to lead two essential agencies-the Chicago Transit Authority and the Chicago Housing Authority. Neither has had a permanent leader in more than a year.

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Johnson has proven repeatedly once he takes a position he is steadfast in it. So, in the movie version of the upcoming election, Johnson is more likely to ride off into the sunset rather than concede any points to his detractors; as well as abandon his assertion he will be Chicago’s longest serving mayor.

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Too often in the past voters made choices based on a candidate’s looks, race or name recognition. In the 2027 election those considerations will have to give way to who is the best problem-solver. At least that is the case if the city is to move forward and shed some of its myriad problems.

Many times candidates, and even incumbents will base their campaigns on slogans that either sound good or are much more difficult to implement than the speaker is making it sound.

After every election here, residents anxiously wait to benefit from promises made during the campaign. Track records show that the result of much of that anticipation is frustration because so many of the campaign pledges turn into vapors or are never mentioned again.

A great deal of that rests with the electorate. Many candidates make untenable promises knowing that most voters aren’t well versed enough in government to ask them exactly how that pledge will work. If voters don’t know how to drill down on those pledges, candidates don’t offer the particulars. The candidate isn’t trying to dupe voters; sadly and often is the case, he or she doesn’t know the answers themselves. It is critical voters are hyper-vigilant when listening to campaign promises. Two or more candidates may offer the same promise but only one knows how to convert it to a reality; or maybe neither does. They are just parroting what sounds good. It is always good to ask how a new program will be paid for, especially when the City has a seemingly unsurmountable $1 billion-plus budget deficit staring it in the face.

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Budgets

Just about every campaign promise or idea has a financial component. Some candidates will toss out a plan for a new program or shift in policy with no real understanding of its impact on the budget. Laws and ordinances governing budgets are strict. Because a person is newly elected to office doesn’t give him or her carte blanche with the existing budget.

In municipal government, the executive branch can redirect dollars from one line item to another, but only with city council approval.

With 35 departments and offices under the mayor’s control tracking budgets can be difficult, but not impossible. Each department has its own budget. Residents would serve themselves well to periodically, maybe quarterly, review Chicago's City budget; such a review can help determine what financial impact a candidate’s proposal(s) will have.

The current budget is an anomaly as it is a rejection of the mayor’s proposed budget. In its place is one adapted by the city council. Additionally, the council created an oversight committee to make sure the mayor follows the budget as the council wishes.

Here are some basic and universal budget terms

Allocation

An allocation is the planned distribution of available funds to departments or programs in the proposed budget.

Appropriation

An appropriation is the legal authorization—approved by the city council

Municipal Bond

A municipal bond is a loan the city takes from investors to finance public projects, repaid over time with interest.

Bond Rating

A bond rating is an independent grade of the city’s creditworthiness that signals how risky—or safe—it is for investors to lend the city money.

Enterprise Fund

An enterprise fund is a self‑supporting fund for services that charge users directly—such as water, sewer, or airports—operated like a public business—that allows a department to actually spend those funds.

General Fund

The general fund is the city’s main operating fund, used for core services like police, fire, streets, and administration.

Line Item

A line item is a specific, individually listed expense or revenue entry in the budget.

Line-Item Veto

A line-item veto allows an executive—like a mayor or governor—to reject specific spending items without vetoing the entire budget.

Property tax

A local tax on the value of land and buildings that funds public services like schools, police, fire protection, and infrastructure.

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The other caveat is endorsements. They are a staple in nearly every campaign; however, their impact is questionable.

Candidates often garner a slew of endorsements from elected officials, clergy, or well-known community members; however, if you don’t know those people or only recognize their names does it mean they know the candidate any better than you.

It takes some digging, but it is not impossible to find out if particular people are being paid for their endorsement; of whether they have been promised something in exchange for it-such as a job for themselves or a relative, or a seat on a commission or governing authority, or even with cash. Endorsements aren’t always altruistic. An endorsement should be the reason a voter considers a candidate, but not the only factor in deciding to vote for that person.

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Whoever is sitting in the mayor’s chair after the 2027 election needs to be made to answer some tough questions from the citizenry. Among the first should be ‘what is the plan to eliminate the budget deficit?’ Voters should also ask about trimming the outstanding pension obligations. Currently, the City’s pension system is $53 billion in debt which is greater than 44 state governments.

The answers to both questions are critical as they will influence how big the increase in property tax will be; how many City workers will need to be let go; and what the City’s bond rating will be.

Because so many one-time measures were used to balance the current budget they will not be available for the next fiscal go around-just about ensuring property tax will be increased and the employee rolls trimmed, as well as some services scaled back.

Don’t forget the Aldermanic races

While most of the attention for the Feb. 23, 2027 election will focus on the mayor’s race all 50 aldermanic seats will be on the ballot as well. The past election saw a record number of new alderman seated as some incumbents lost their election outright, with an almost equal number choosing to retire from the council. To date, no member said he or she is stepping down. However, 34th Ward Bill Conway has announced he will run for mayor meaning he will have to vacate his alderman’s seat.

While some lauded it as the largest City-focused event to date, others expressed strong skepticism about how effective advice from 13-24-year-olds could be. They have trouble managing an allowance so how can they have any meaningful input on something as complicated as a municipal government budget,. Johnson promised attendees that their voices would help shape future city policy.

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The roundtable young people were unable to predict or advise the administration of what would prove to be a troubling trend-teen takeovers of downtown. Early on, CPD preferred to call the rampaging “public safety challenges,”

When the public began referring to the acts as mob violence, Johnson pushed back and criticized the news media and the public for demonizing young people

Apparently, in hopes of minimizing the perception of the latest takeover; Johnson insisted the term “large gathering” be used instead, as though the takeover was similar to tailgating at a Chicago Bears game.

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The mayor has yet to assemble takeover participants and query them to try to learn if there is anything the City can put in place to avoid these situations, which have moved from downtown to the Hyde Park and Chatham neighborhoods.

Nor has the Mayor’s Youth Commission devised a strategy to mitigate the takeovers, even though one of the commission’s charges is to develop new ideas on public safety. Commission members range in age from 14-19.

A prevailing sentiment, particularly on social media sites, is that parents should be held responsible” for their children’s participation in these takeovers. That notion fails to take into account that a parent working two or three part-time jobs barely has enough time to sleep in between shifts, much less track a teen. It is also likely that youth tell parents they are going one place but wind up somewhere else after a few hours.

Some have offered the idea of fining parents when their child(ren) are caught in these scenes, which once were called wilding. That is almost laughable in light of recent stories of how City employees with better-than-average wages are ignoring fines levied against them.

Dr. Obari Cartman, a local mental health advocate focusing on the Black community, offered a novel approach.

He maintains rather than take punitive steps adults should join the takeovers as chaperones. He suggested getting involved in three or four takeovers and get to know the young people. Ultimately, the teens will realize when they call for a takeover, they are also sending an invitation to adults to join them-taking some of the fun out of the disturbances.

Why isn’t Johnson meeting with these troublemakers?

Given that the Chicago Police Department uses a platform called geofeedia it is a mystery that the takeovers even occur or escalate as quickly as they do. According to industry reports “Geofeedia is a social media intelligence platform that associates social media posts with geographic locations. It has offices in Chicago, Illinois; Naples, Florida; and Indianapolis, Indiana.”

Johnson is clearly an ally of the youth, including those who run rampant; so it’s a mystery why he hasn’t visited some of these sites when the actions occur, in hopes of tamping down or quelling the activity completely.

Nor has Johnson invited 300 youth or a representative sample of youth to any venue to discuss the takeovers. One inducement could be their participation in such a meeting could get their arrest charges dropped. Attention from the top elected official in the city spending a few hours with them, especially in a candid, no-holds-barred conversation could have an impact, as well as turn those young people into evangelists for peaceful demonstrations.

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The mayor essentially removed speculation about his future political plans when he recently unveiled his latest initiative -Repair Chicago. Anyone thinking it’s about potholes, blight, or other physical problems is wrong. Repair Chicago is about reparations for the city’s Black residents. In short, it is a multi-level listening tour to give Black Chicagoans an opportunity to detail how they have been impacted by the vestiges of slavery. It is phase two of a reparations task force Johnson established in 2024.

The overall purpose is to gather enough information for the task force to make informed recommendations. That’s expected to happen sometimes next year.

On its face the initiative might sound laudable; but digging deeper and it’s obvious Johnson is pushing this now to gain favor with Black voters. To date, there has been no budget or funding mechanism identified. We only know the project is being directed by the Office of Equity and Racial Justice (OERJ), which is part of the mayor’s office.

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It’s imperative Johnson improve his approval rating among Black voters to even have a remote chance of being reelected. A University of Chicago Mansueto Institute/NORC poll shows the majority of Black voters either disapproved of the mayor’s performance, were unsure or had no opinion. Only 38 percent of Black voters polled approved of his performance.

The mayor’s message on reparations must be much clearer in order that it doesn’t get misconstrued that reparations are actually on the horizon. The information could follow the pattern of the frequent example of putting people in a circle and telling the first one a supposed secret and asking that person to pass it on. By the time the “secret” gets to the last person the information has been significantly altered.

The mayor undoubtedly recognizes he is taking a calculated risk in proffering the reparations idea. While it will resonate with Black voters, simultaneously it is likely to alienate less liberal white voters, as well as some of the Spanish-speaking community. That uptick in interest among Black Chicagoans won’t necessarily translate into a larger number of Black voters in the February primary.

However, it is a risk that Johnson almost has to take as it may assuage some of the harsh feelings he generated with the migrant issue-one in which a large cohort of Black Chicagoans said they were being overlooked while the migrants got preferential treatment.

Migrant issues aside, the mayor is likely to find himself swimming in murky water as previous discussions about reparations never yielded a clear preference. While the OERI is charged with the fact-finding aspect the potential reparation recipients will look for the mayor to say what they will be. Past discussions have identified cash, education or housing assistance, to land giveaways. Regardless of what is chosen there will be some who are disappointed.

Even with a Black-friendly initiative such as reparations, Johnson still faces a rocky re-election road. Black voter turnout in the last four primaries have gone from a high in 2018 at 32 percent to this year’s 22 percent.

Additionally, some of the mayor’s announced or suspected rivals have larger war chests than Johnson. How much heavy lifting reparations can do, along with any other incentives is the most pressing question at this point.

Brandon’s “flex” fizzled

With approximately 300 days until they will run in a city-wide election the astute politician would be trying to expand his or her base, convert if not neutralize opponents’ supporters, and avoid making unnecessary enemies. That’s what you do unless you’re Mayor Brandon Johnson. As throughout this, his first term, Johnson’s political naivete was on full display recently when he clashed with the chairperson of the Chicago Housing Authority.

Johnson indicated he was replacing Matt Brewer as CHA chairperson. However, Brewer pushed back and informed the mayor he was not leaving the chairmanship or relinquishing his seat on the housing commission.

At the root of the disagreement is Johnson’s preference for CHA executive director, former Alderman Walter Burnett was passed over for the job. Even the Feds weighed in and determined Burnett’s lack of managerial experience should preclude him from being named to the post.

Ironically, the point of contention that Johnson, a former social studies teacher pins his position on is a legal one. Brewer, an attorney, is considered one of the leading practitioners in the city. Johnson maintains the Brewer unilaterally named a new CHA director unilaterally, although there is a record of the board voting 7-2 to appoint the new director.

Removing, or attempting to remove Brewer, certainly will prove to be a distraction as Johnson heads deeper into election season.

His campaign war chest is an anemic $2 million, compared to Secretary of State’s Alexi Giannoulias’ $6 million. Giannoulias is widely rumored to enter the race for mayor but has yet to declare. Some other potential candidates also have a larger bankroll than Johnson. Even though the adage is more than 70 years old, it still holds true that “money is the mother’s milk of politics.”

And instead of relating a string of his administration’s successes Johnson has been almost singularly focused the last several months on real and perceived attacks on Chicago by President Donald Trump.

Some might offer that the mayor does not have a string of successes to present.

The mayor continues to fire verbal salvos at Trump who has few fans here. Instead of addressing City problems, Johnson repeatedly asserts there is something his office can do about Trump policies that impact Chicago. Grandstanding about the Feds deploying Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to O’Hare International Airport is the latest. The only thing City Hall can do is complain, as the airport and ICE fall under federal jurisdiction.

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Whatever Trump is saying pales to the plethora of issues Johnson has but seemingly refuses to face at City Hall. The Johnson Administration’s self-proclaimed hallmark of success is a reduction in homicides and other violent crimes. Mysteriously, Johnson allowed his chief of staff, Cristina Pacione-Zayas and Jason Lee, Johnson’s senior advisor, to fire Gerion Gatewood, who is widely recognized as the pilot who drove the plans and policies resulting in reduced homicides and violent crimes. There’s been no information why the mayor wasn’t in the meeting.

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Johnson’s personnel problems quickly compounded when Nancy Andrade, human rights commissioner, tendered her immediate resignation after the Gatewood firing. Although unrelated, it came on the heels of the Gatewood debacle. Andrade, according to written accounts, was irate over the mayor’s attempt to have a contractor alter a City-commissioned report on antisemitism.

The mayor also has allowed key leadership positions at the Chicago Housing Authority, the Chicago Transit Authority, and the Chicago Public Schools to remain vacant for more than a year. Critics maintain that the prolonged vacancies eliminate the possibilities of long-term planning.

Johnson will have to tread murky waters on the CPS matter. The board had winnowed its choices to three candidates for the superintendent’s opening; however, one of the three withdrew from consideration. Of the two choices left one is the current Interim Superintendent, Macquline King, whom the mayor has clashed with over his desire to seek a short-term loan. Since Johnson initially proposed what some have deemed a pay day loan” borrowing, Chicago’s bond rating has been downgraded and that translates into higher interest rates on any money borrowed.

The other possible superintendent comes from Baton Rouge and has no experience in a big city district. Sito Narcisse was recently cited in a Chicago Sun-Times article as having a controversial tenure while working in several other districts.

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Some business leaders are pointing the finger at Johnson, stating his foot-dragging on appointing a chairperson of the City’s zoning committee has meant the loss or stalling of at least 40 new developments here.

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Money is the other problem

In approximately one year, Chicagoans will be going to the polls to decide if they want to give Johnson another shot at running Chicago. That is if the mayor decides to seek re-election.

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If he decides to run again, he will face the daunting challenges of a looming $1 billion budget deficit: a $10 million war chest funded by one of his staunchest adversaries, along with an approval rating south of 20 percent.

Johnson’s announced opponents are lined up like a horse race. In addition to them, perennial candidate Willie Wilson is said to be eyeing the field. A Wilson campaign would deeply cut into Johnson’s base

Pour on top of that that Johnson’s biggest benefactor in the 2024 race, the Chicago Teachers Union, is under fire by the Feds for financial audit irregularities; and Johnson’s woes are compounded. The union’s membership also is splintered over the fact there was no vote by members to contribute $3 million to the Johnson campaign in 2023/24.

No one should be surprised to see Johnson’s name on the ballot for the 7th Congressional District in 2029. Whoever is the incumbent at that time will only have been there for one term making him or her vulnerable to a strong challenger.

Working as a state legislator would allow him to keep his pre-mayoral job with the Chicago Teachers Union as an organizer.

In typical Johnson fashion, his spokesperson cited problems with the selection process and not the authority flexing its independence. From a governing standpoint, the mayor appears to be in a free fall.

That free fall is rapid as Johnson is taking on some of the responsibilities of the press secretary. In two years, the mayor is working with his third press secretary-a highly unusual move as that is often the most trusted and loyal positions in an administration. In February his press secretary left to work with the newly elected mayor of New York City. A third-tier deputy was elevated to that post. Johnson’s news conferences reflect the inexperience of dealing with the news media-a vitally important element in explaining policy and mayoral priorities.

While it appears the CHA leadership issue has been resolved; Johnson has allowed two other key agencies - the Chicago Transit Authority and Chicago Public Schools to operate without permanent leaders for more than a year.

The school district this week announced it has selected three finalists as possible superintendents. One of them is the interim superintendent who has already opposed the mayor’s suggestion that the district enter into a short-term loan agreement to grab $300 million to cover pay increases and pensions next year. The prevailing sentiment from financial and education leaders is that the borrowing will drive the district deeper into debt. This administration has been fraught with financial missteps.

Earlier this week the New York City candidate withdrew her name from consideration. Johnson now is opted for a candidate who already opposes the payday loan approach, but the board has successfully worked with; or the candidate with no big city, particularly Chicago experience.

After a protracted months-long battle with the Chicago City Council, Johnson had to accede to a budget that the council wanted over Johnson’s proposed fiscal plan. Even after it was locked in place; a contingent of the council formed an oversight arm to monitor the mayor’s spending.

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That was quickly followed by Ninth Ward Alderman Anthony Beale taking the horns on the contested video gaming issue by sending an official letter to the State of Illinois Gaming Board stating Chicago was ready to implement video gaming. Beale, as part of a cohort of 20 alderpersons signed the letter that went to Springfield stating Johnson had shirked his duty by not notifying state officials to accept applications from bars and restaurants for the gaming terminals It is estimated video gambling will generate more than $6 million in revenue for Chicago.

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During budget negotiations, Johnson’s plan to implement a $21 per employee head tax on the city’s largest corporations not only was rejected by council; business leaders decried it as a jobs killer, and it died a not-so-quiet death. That tax was the linchpin for the mayor to plug a $1.6 billion hole in his proposed budget.

While the most recent budget was balanced with stopgap and one-time measures; Johnson has failed to address next year’s budget deficit that promises to be as gargantuan in the size of the deficit as this one was. His days are replete with groundbreaking or ribbon-cutting photo ops.

The mayor’s failed financial efforts date back to early in his tenure when a ballot measure labeled “Bring Home Chicago” was roundly defeated on March 19,2024. The intent of the measure was to move Chicago from a flat rate to a progressive tax on properties valued at $1.5 million. Approximately 53 percent of voters rejected it.

There are signs the Johnson Administration is in serious need of financial advice/help-the most obvious is the City’s bond rating was recently reduced by two agencies. That translates into higher borrowing costs if the city has to go to the bond market for cash.

At the beginning of the budget process, the mayor hand-picked a group of business and civic leaders to identify efficiencies and cost-saving measures the City could implement. Despite the leaders of that group applauding city hall for the transparency and full access to financial and operational information; nothing came of its recommendations. A $3.4 million consulting contract with the international EY firm showed the same results. A third group, also charged with finding financial fixes disbanded itself after less than three months and no recommendations came from it.

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Even with the next mayoral election more mayoral election about a year away, Johnson is going to have to quickly accelerate into campaign mode if he plans to stand for re-election. Besides a coalition that has already raised $10 million to defeat him; several opponents ranging from state and county officials to business owners have already declared they will run to unseat Johnson.

If successful, it would be historic as the committee in modern times hasn’t put successive conventions in the same city. The party’s first six conventions in the 1800s all were in Baltimore Md.

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It’s completely understandable why the governor would want to bring the party back home. He has yet to disabuse anyone that he won’t seek the Democratic nomination for President. A convention in his hometown could sway the vote in his favor.

Another Chicago convention gives Pritzker a national spotlight, as well as control over the story Illinois tells. Donors, activists and much of the national news media allow Pritzker to demonstrate leadership, competence and stability. However, none of that moves the City’s budget closer to being in the black.

The last convention here attracted 50, 000 folks including delegates, party officials, media, volunteers, and supporters. That is people who were in and outside of the United Center.

Johnson on the other hand has nothing to gain, except maybe some national television exposure. Actually, if the Dems do bring the convention, the mayor might not be around as the City’s CEO. With the next mayoral primary in 2027 being in February and the runoff slated for April 6,2027, it is possible Johnson could be voted out. The convention is slated for mid-August.

Possibly that’s why after the announcement Johnson expressed some doubts about the feasibility of Chicago being home to another DNC convention. More specifically, he cited the animosity the Federal government, particularly President Trump has leveled against Chicago. Even though it’s up to Congress to allocate funds for the convention; the majority in Congress this time is controlled by Trump. For the 2024 convention, Democrats held a two-seat majority, along with two independent members.

What may be another deterrent facing Chicago’s bid is Johnson himself. In his failed quest to craft and deliver a City budget for 2027, Johnson pushed for a corporate head tax to be paid by the Chicago’s largest corporations.

Throughout his push for the $21 per employee new tax, he repeatedly criticized the heads of those corporations for not being willing to “pay their fair share.” In those politically charged moments he leveled charges of being greedy, among other pejoratives. And it’s far too late to walk back those comments, especially with hat-in-hand.

Unfortunately for Johnson, those are the same people who anted up millions to help the 2024 convention come here. Besides the $5.6 million contribution by Pritzker and his wife MK; high wealth donors, the ones Johnson berates, tossed in approximately $20 million. The mayor’s tirades against them may cause them to ignore any requests this time around.

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As part of convention security, the Feds gave Chicago a Bell 407GXi class helicopter, , along with the personnel to train CPD. On the surface it sounded like a good deal; however, the gift didn’t include future fuel or maintenance costs which total approximately $1.4 million per year. That money had to come out of a city budget that was already deeply in the red. Operating a helicopter means there is at least one cop not on the streets.

Despite the windfall from the Feds, CPD managed to go over the designated convention budget by $10 million.

The people who study budgets and finance are predicting that in the next fiscal year Chicago will face another $1billion-plus deficit. The focus should be on trimming or eliminating that instead of what amounts to a four-day party

Voting absentee? Then vote even earlier

The United States Postal Service will not guarantee your Vote by Mail return ballot envelopes will be postmarked the same day that you mailed it. Any ballot postmarked after Election Day on March 17 cannot be accepted. USPS recommends voters take additional precautions and mail their completed Vote by Mail Ballot at least one week (March 10) before Election Day.

Returning your ballot close to Election Day (March 17)? You have options!

• Drop your ballot off into any of 52+ Secure Drop Boxes located at all Early Voting sites in Chicago – even on Election Day!

• Go to the post office counter and request a manual postmark

• Deliver your ballot directly to 69 W. Washington St. – either at the First-Floor lobby drop box or in the 6th Floor office

All qualified ballots properly postmarked by Election Day (March 17) and received up to 14 days after (March 31) will be processed and counted for the 2026 Primary Election.

The Chicago Board of Elections will send you an email when it receives your ballot return envelope, and again when your ballot has been processed and counted.

Please Note: Precinct polling places on Election Day do not have drop boxes. Precinct election judges cannot accept Vote by Mail ballots, and VBM ballots returned at precinct polling places will not be processed. Voters instead can use any of 51 Vote Centers open on Election Day to return their Vote By Mail ballot, including the new downtown voting Supersite at 137 S. State St.

A cohort of U.S. state, county and city officials are the likely challengers for the next Chicago mayoral race. Incumbent Brandon Johnson has not announced whether he will seek re-election. (top Left U.S Rep Mike Quigley, top right Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulis bottom left Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza and bottom right Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas)

U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley announced he definitely is in the 2027 race for mayor. He has changed his mind two times in previous elections after saying he was a mayoral candidate. In his recent announcement, he focused on bringing efficiencies to local government-including reducing the size of the City workforce, repurposing underutilized school buildings, fully addressing the pension crisis; and other cost-saving measures he says Mayor Brandon Johnson has been avoiding. He added he would no longer sidestep the political third rail as previous mayors have done, and that is seek union concessions.

Quigley is taking a calculated risk releasing even this skeleton of a campaign platform. His opponents will have ample time to dissect and counter his ideas, while at the same time when he talks about streamlining the workforce he hits a sour note with many in the African-American community as government employment is what helped tens of thousands attain a middle-class lifestyle.

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Although the Congressman has held various elected offices since 1998; he has never had to run citywide. That translates to low or no name recognition in the city’s Black community. The district he currently represents is on the far North Side, namely all or parts of Lakeview, Lincoln Park, North Center, Uptown and Edgewater and is sparsely populated by African Americans. Johnson’s stronghold in his only mayoral run proved to be the west and south sides of the city where Chicago’s Black population is most congregated.

However, Quigley is likely to easily find Black surrogates to put on his campaign payroll and carry his water in wards 24, 21, 29, and 16. Johnson performed well in the Lakeview, Uptown and Edgewater wards, specifically 44,46, and 48 respectively. Each of those enclaves netted Johnson at least 10,000 votes. Now that he is no longer an unknown, if those numbers hold up it will be a tell-tale sign of his re-electability. He did well in those areas given their liberal bent and Johnson’s promised but now failed progressive agenda.

Fund-raising will be another challenge for the Congressman. Undoubtedly, he will be seeking campaign dollars from some of the same contributors his would-be competitors are asking for money. It might be impossible for him to catch Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulis whose swollen campaign coffers already hold more than $6 million. Those funds can easily be transferred to a mayoral campaign if he decides to run. That significantly outpaces the $935,000 shown in Johnson’s most recent finance filings. People who track this sort of thing agree $10 million is the sweet spot for a campaign treasury.

Quigley can hold out hope that those on the opposite side of Johnson’s progressive agenda will ride to the rescue with a substantial donation. One name that comes to mind is 34th Ward Alderman Bill Conway. Conway, a billionaire, was rumored to be a mayoral candidate, and then Giannoulis’ name surfaced, and Conway’s faded from talk about his potential candidacy.

With his name on more than 8 million driver licenses in Illinois and his picture in more than 100 Secretary of State offices, Giannoulis is ubiquitous. His name pops up in countless conversations about who will be the candidates in the 2027 mayor’s race; even though he has committed to running for re-election as the secretary.

The former state treasurer hasn’t said no to a mayoral run, while at the same time he hasn’t dissuaded political and news people from discussing the possibility.

Like Giannoulis, Mendoza hasn’t announced she will be a contender for the mayor’s job. However, the fact that she declared she will not run for re-election as the state comptroller fueled speculation, she does have her eye on the mayor’s seat.

Should she opt to run Johnson could find his campaign in a precarious position in the primary. Mendoza is immensely popular in the Hispanic community, in part because she is the first Hispanic elected to a statewide office in Illinois. She also enjoys the backing of Hispanic political organizations and non-profits. Even as an undeclared candidate, Mendoza has approximately $500,000 more in her campaign coffers than Johnson currently has. She also brings a relentless campaign style.

Two maybes and one for sure

From his steady social media presence denouncing many things the Johnson Administration (and previous ones) failed to do; it is obvious Ja Mal Green will make his third run for mayor. In the 2019 primary he was only able to muster 6 votes for his write-in candidacy. In the 2023 primary, his vote total jumped to more than 12,000. That put him at the bottom half of a crowded field. His target audience is likely the youngest voting cohort. That group’s voting record is anemic.

Paul Vallas’ campaign is the antitheses of the adage that voters have short memories. When he ran in the 2023 races voters cited his tenure as city budget director and school superintendent in Connecticut and Pennsylvania as reasons not to vote for him. His unsuccessful bids for governor and lieutenant governor, although more than a decade ago, were also brought up during the last mayoral race.

The fact that Joe Hoberg has never run for public office is the chief plank in his platform. His Wikipedia bio describes him as an American author, visionary entrepreneur, educator, and public speaker who is widely credited with professionalizing the field of financial wellness in the United States.

There are just over 100 days before the Chicago primary election.

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The United States Postal Service introduced a policy change last month that means voters will need to use a bit more thought if they are going to use an absentee ballot-especially for those voting in elections outside of Chicago

Traditionally and historically, when a voter completed an absentee ballot and mailed it by Election Day it was considered valid. With the postal service change, a ballot won’t be postmarked until it reaches a processing center. In many cases that could mean the ballot will have a postmark after Election Day and could be rendered invalid.

In Chicago that won’t pose a problem as the board of elections has a two-week grace period for mailed in ballots. Max Bever, the communications director for the board noted that will continue to be the policy unless the state legislature makes a change.

Drop off sites are becoming a popular alternative to in-person and mail-in voting. There is one in every ward at the early voting poll, as well as one downtown which is open 24 hours a day at 69 W. Washington. There is also a drop off box at the early voting Super Site at 137 S. State St.

In the March 24 election, 48,144 voters used the drop off option. That represented 28 percent of the vote-by-mail total of the approximately 176,00 ballots. Overall turnout was an abysmal 23 percent with 343,600 ballots cast. In the general election in November, the percentage for the drop off jumped to 68 percent with 106,429 vote-by-mail ballots.

Voters in other cities should contact their county’s election board to learn if there will be a change in determining the process for counting.

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In an act of perceived defiance, Johnson refused to sign the budget. That was more performative than functional, as his signature was not required for the budget to be enacted. The mayor amplified his displeasure by announcing the head tax issue will be on his future budgets. It was a peculiar statement for a mayor whose term will only have one more budget before he stands for election. All indications are as he heads into the last year of this term Chicago’s budget will again be in or close to the$1 billion-plus deficit experienced this fiscal year.

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One would think that Johnson, who more than once proclaimed he would be Chicago’s longest serving mayor, would maintain focus on his March 2027 re-election bid as opposed to non-starters that have been shunned twice. The mayor’s approval rating has climbed up to 31 percent-an enormous leap from where he was about 18 months ago.

With slightly more than $1.16 million in his war chest for 2027, Johnson is facing a gargantuan task to raise money. A cohort of monied local business leaders have already chipped in $10 million to advocate not only against some of his proposals, but also his re-election.

Former Mayor Lori Lightfoot also had approximately $1.16 million at this point in her term.

It was also the second time in a year Johnson has refused to accept no one is buying what he’s selling. When the Bring Chicago Home property tax proposal died an overwhelming ugly death at the hands of Chicago voters, Johnson swore it would be placed before voters again. His supporters are still waiting for the measure to resurface.

Apparently, it’s his standard knee-jerk reaction when the mayor’s ideas get knocked down. His response to his flagship fiscal idea has had him making promises that weren’t necessary and had little to no chance of reversing opponents’ minds.

Johnson by no small measure was elected in 2023 because of a vigorous campaign that promised innovative revenue options, reversal of many of his predecessor’s policies-particularly on the mental health front, education reforms among other matters.

Given that the majority of the planks in his platform, Team Johnson is likely to struggle mightily with new campaign pledges that the voting public will see as not only plausible but attainable.

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While the immediate action was disappointment, sprinkled with a dose of anger; many opined the announcement was truly a ploy to leverage the State of Illinois to reverse course on funding infrastructure for a proposed Arlington Heights stadium for the team. If the team decides on relocating to NW Indiana, where should it be?