I’m incredibly proud of myself for the investment thesis that I put together late last year in December 2025 and the conviction that I have especially shown in SNDK— SanDisk Corporation since I invested back in January when the stock was in the $200s.

It seems as though hedge funds are finally catching up to what I realized back in March and are making SanDisk their largest stock positions. This validates my investment thesis and confirms everything that my research has suggested and had been steering me toward in terms of my investments.

For example, two of the most well-known hedge funds, Situational Awareness LP and Jane Street Group, each have SNDK as their largest individual stock holding as of their latest 13-F filings dated June 30, 2026.

Situational Awareness LP has 27.99% of its entire portfolio in SNDK and another 27.49% in MU— Micron Technology Inc, for a total of 55.48% in the Memory and Data Storage space.

Meanwhile, Jane Street Group is more conservative, but SNDK is still its largest individual stock position at 5.79%, behind SPY—the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF at 21.04%—and another 0.91% in STX— STX Technology Holdings Plc, for a total of 6.7% of its portfolio in Memory and Data Storage.

I am much more aggressive in my belief in both SNDK and the Memory and Data Storage space, with 64.83% in SNDK and 82.18% in Memory and Data Storage, respectively. I have a firm belief that the Memory and Data Storage space will continue to be the best sector of the entire stock market, like it has been over the past two years in 2025 and 2026.

With the Memory and Data Storage names fully recovered from the great July Chip Wreck Selloff and with the stocks back in the green prior to the selloff, I am extremely confident that this strong momentum uptrend will continue for some time to come.

It has been stated time and time again on many different companies’ Earnings Calls this past Earnings Season that the demand for Memory and Data Storage is so great that companies are having to increase their own pricing so as not to affect their own company’s margins. The Memory and Data Storage suppliers themselves have also stated that they simply cannot make enough supply to meet the ever-increasing demand and, as a result, will have to start rationing clients in the near future.

My investment thesis has been on point since I started to pivot from the more Speculative Risk-On names that were mostly pre-revenue last Summer and Fall to investing in the companies that were experiencing the first capture of all the massive AI Capex Spending from the Major Hyperscalers, which had stellar Earnings Growth and real Revenues, back in December 2025.

I am more Bullish than ever in my investment thesis after SNDK’s Q4 2026 Earnings Call and their 2026 Investor Day last week because AI’s transition from Training to Inferencing in 2027 is going to be monumental, not just for Memory and Data Storage as a whole, but for SNDK specifically because it is the best pure-play NAND exposure stock.

NAND flash is absolutely mission critical to Inferencing, and when Inferencing usage explodes in 2027 and beyond, SNDK will likely be one of its biggest beneficiaries.

I am extremely proud of myself for trusting my own research and due diligence and having the foresight to take a leap of faith on March 30th and full-port my entire Roth IRA into SNDK because of the company’s growth and all of the great products that it had in its pipeline that hadn’t even been released yet. As a result, I now have a $443.17 cost basis on SNDK in my Roth IRA, while the stock is currently trading at $1,641.11 as of the 8/14/2026 market close. That represents a 270.31% YTD return in my Roth IRA as of the 8/14/2026 market close.

The best part of all is that SanDisk’s game-changing new product, High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF), in which SK Hynix, Google, META, and Tensorrent are all part of its consortium, hasn’t even been modeled into their financial outlook and models yet, and the stock still has an outlook of up to 25% CAGR through 2030 without it factored in.

That is explosive growth.

Bottom line

SNDK is absolutely still the best stock in the entire stock market in my opinion, and the stock is finally being viewed for what I have been saying since the beginning of the year: this company is no longer just a traditional Boom-Bust Commodity Memory name and should instead be viewed as a “Best of Breed” Core AI Infrastructure stock that has up to four years of visibility for exponential growth potential.

With no sign of AI Capex Spending slowing down by the Major Hyperscalers and with them planning to greatly increase their AI Capex Spending to between $1 trillion and $1.2 trillion in 2027 and $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion in 2028, SNDK and the other Memory and Data Storage names will print many multimillionaires in the coming years.

Will you be one of them?

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in securities mentioned, including the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), SK Hynix Inc (SKHY), and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK), as of August 16, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

The recent price action and huge selloff in the Memory and AI Infrastructure names over the past three weeks doesn’t tell the real story of the Memory and AI Infrastructure trade.

These areas of the market suffered a steep correction, with some names declining as much as 30%-50% as a result of quarterly rebalancing, profit-taking, hedge funds and institutions locking in gains, the end of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, higher oil prices, inflation concerns, rising U.S. 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury yields, concerns over Hyperscaler AI Capex spending, increased leveraged and margin trading by Korean investors, and Chinese AI and Memory competition.

The Reality Of The AI Trade, Not The FUD

Based on my analysis, memory makers can currently fulfill only about 70% of demand, while demand continues to grow and supply remains constrained. As a result, memory makers continue raising prices as underlying DRAM and NAND prices continue to rise.

This bottleneck is how cash explosions in revenue and earnings are created, and it’s why I’ve designed my entire investment portfolio and investment thesis around these companies and the businesses that benefit most from them.

These Memory and Data Storage providers have unrivaled pricing power right now that I believe will last for at least the next 2-3 years and could potentially extend through the first half of 2030.

Projected NAND gross margins over the next several quarters and into 2027 could reach as high as 85%.

The Memory Tax

At the start of 2026, according to Morgan Stanley Research, approximately 26% of total AI Capex spending was expected to go toward Memory and Data Storage.

However, because of the severe memory supply crunch, memory manufacturers now have the pricing power to charge significantly higher prices for memory and storage products. I call this the Memory Tax.

Because of the Memory Tax, I believe these Memory and Data Storage providers could ultimately receive 35%-40% of total AI Capex spending in 2026. With total AI Capex projected to reach $800-$850 billion, that would represent approximately $280-$340 billion flowing to the major players in the space, such as SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate.

With AI Capex spending projected to rise to $1.0-$1.2 trillion in 2027 and potentially $1.4-$1.5 trillion thereafter in 2028, coupled with SK Group’s Chairman stating that 2027 could see an even worse memory supply crunch, I believe the Memory Tax could increase further, potentially reaching 50%-60% of total AI Capex spending.

The Importance Of Alphabet’s Q2 2026 Earnings Report

This is why $GOOGL earnings tomorrow, July 22, are so critical—not just for the entire AI trade, but for my entire investment thesis.

If GOOGL’s earnings report confirms increased AI Capex spending, I believe the Memory and AI Infrastructure names could surge.

If GOOGL’s earnings report shows AI Capex spending decreasing or even remaining flat, these names will likely come under renewed pressure.

GOOGL’s earnings set the tone for the four major Hyperscalers: GOOGL, META, AMZN, and AAPL. All four companies report over the next week and a half, and it’s critical for the AI trade that they not only beat earnings expectations but also raise guidance and signal increased AI Capex spending.

If GOOGL increases Capex, I believe it’s highly likely the other Hyperscalers will do the same.

Conversely, if GOOGL’s AI Capex spending remains flat or declines, there’s a good chance the others will follow.

My Prediction

I believe GOOGL’s earnings report will show a significant increase in AI Capex spending, reaffirming that the AI Infrastructure Boom is far from over and that we’re still in the early innings of what could become the largest infrastructure buildout in human history.

As a result, I expect the Memory and AI Infrastructure names to continue their rebound, with many moving another 10%-25% higher.

I also believe this will be reinforced next week when META, AMZN, and AAPL report earnings on July 29 and 30, providing another catalyst for Memory and Data Storage stocks as well as the AI Infrastructure names.

Then Seagate reports on July 28, followed by SanDisk and Western Digital on August 5. Strong earnings from those companies could send many of these stocks to new all-time highs, especially after analysts update their price targets based on the latest results.

The final catalyst—and the cherry on top of this delicious sundae—is SanDisk’s Investor Day on August 13, which I believe could bring even more institutional and retail investor attention to the stock.

Closing Remarks

I simply connect the dots and follow the money after spending countless hours researching and analyzing the entire AI Supply Chain ecosystem.

For all of these reasons, I remain incredibly bullish on the Memory and Data Storage companies and selected AI Infrastructure names despite the immense selling pressure they’ve experienced over the past three weeks since the start of Q3.

Remember, over the past 20 years, July has historically been one of the stock market’s strongest-performing months. I believe we’ll continue to see that seasonal strength as the Semiconductor sector returns to form following today’s strong move higher on July 21.

Noteworthy Investments To Watch

Below are the companies and ETFs that I believe are best positioned to benefit if this thesis plays out. These are the names I’ll be watching most closely throughout earnings season.

All currently trading prices are as of the July 21, 2026, market close.

• SNDK — SanDisk Corporation: $1,589.40

• DRAM — Roundhill Memory ETF: $58.85

• SKHY — SK Hynix Inc.: $171.94

• NBIS — Nebius Group N.V.: $216.92

• KEEL — Keel Infrastructure Corporation: $4.65

• IQEPF — IQE PLC: $0.618

• SIVEF — Sivers Semiconductors AB: $4.29

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in securities mentioned, including the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), SanDisk Corporation (SNDK), SK Hynix Inc (SKHY), Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), Keel Infrastructure Corporation (KEEL), IQE PLC (IQEPF), and Sivers Semiconductor AB (SIVEF), as of July 21, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

There are several factors at play that are driving the market right now.

Coming into Friday, June 5th, the S&P 500 was pacing for its 10th straight positive week and the NASDAQ Composite was pacing for its 9th week of gains in the last 10 weeks. Then Friday happened, ending the weekly winning streak. It was the worst trading session of 2026 and the worst trading session in 164 trading days, going back to April 2025.

Last Friday’s market decline stemmed from the market shifting from expecting rate cuts to now expecting potential rate hikes as early as July, according to Ed Yardeni.

This week was always going to be a week of heavy volatility and intense selling pressure, caused in part by many investors selling their AI-related winners to raise cash ahead of Friday’s SpaceX IPO.

In addition to that, we have the CPI Report coming out this week, which gauges the rate of inflation consumers are currently experiencing. Consumer sentiment has been extremely low lately because of higher oil prices caused by the Iran War, which is contributing to inflation both in the United States and across the globe.

Because the U.S. only imports about 7% of its oil from the Persian Gulf and is largely energy independent, inflation has not been as severe in the U.S. as it has been in other predominantly energy-importing regions such as Asia and Europe.

Because we recently passed the three-month anniversary of what was supposed to be a two-week war with Iran, the market is expecting the CPI Report to come in hot. This is causing stocks to trade lower in anticipation of potentially disappointing inflation data.

What Determines the Price of a Stock?

It’s important to understand what determines the price of a stock.

In my view, roughly 50% of a stock’s price movement is driven by the overall macro environment. The macro environment includes factors that affect the broader market rather than a specific sector or individual company. This can include expectations for rate cuts or rate hikes, CPI data, jobs reports, and other economic indicators.

The macro environment has been controlling the narrative since last Friday’s better-than-expected Jobs Report. Ironically, that was bad for the stock market because a stronger labor market reduces the likelihood that the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will cut interest rates. The stock market generally prefers lower rates because borrowing money becomes cheaper.

Next, roughly 25% of a stock’s price movement is determined by the outlook for its sector or industry. Currently, sectors like Energy and the Memory names have performed exceptionally well because their sector outlook remains very strong. The same cannot be said for Consumer Discretionary stocks or much of the Financial sector.

Lastly, the final 25% is determined by the outlook for the individual company itself and whether it is experiencing company-specific headwinds or tailwinds.

This final piece can compound significantly over time if a company has a long runway for growth and is benefiting from company-specific, sector-specific, and macroeconomic tailwinds simultaneously. That’s one reason many AI infrastructure stocks have been cruising higher over the last 10 weeks since the March 30th low.

Now here’s a real-world example.

Let’s use SNDK and the other Memory names.

SNDK Outlook

• SanDisk Corporation

• Current Price= $1,646.54 as of 6/9/2026 market close

This information also applies well to names such as DRAM, MU, STX, and WDC.

Macro Environment

• Inflation fears

• Higher oil prices

• Higher treasury yields

• Better-than-expected Jobs Report

• Potential rate hikes

• Stock market up 9 of the last 10 weeks

• Strong returns for AI infrastructure and Energy stocks

• Consumer sentiment remains low

• Investors continue buying dips

• Major hyperscalers are projected to spend over $800 billion on AI CapEx in 2026

• Selling pressure surrounding the SpaceX IPO

Sector Outlook

• Memory supply crunch remains the primary driver behind the sector’s explosive growth in 2025-2026 and is likely to continue for another 2-3 years

• Numerous analysts, as well as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, believe the memory shortage will persist for several years, while the chairman of the SK Group, the parent company of SK Hynix, believes the memory supply crunch will potentially last until 2030

• Bernstein projects HBM prices to triple in 2027

• No meaningful new capacity is expected online before late 2027 or the first half of 2028

• Pricing continues to increase significantly in DRAM and NAND

• The rise of AI inference is increasing demand for both memory and data storage

• Global DRAM shortages are expected to continue for years, with manufacturers projected to meet only around 60% of demand by 2027

• Memory is shifting from a traditional cyclical boom-and-bust business to being re-rated as core AI infrastructure

• Memory companies are expected to receive roughly 25%-30% of the projected $800 billion in AI CapEx spending in 2026

Company-Specific Factors

• Explosive EPS growth

• No debt, meaning interest rates do not have an immediate impact on the business

• Clients are signing New Business Model (NBM) agreements that are multi-year in duration, with some contracts extending up to five years and including full prepayment

• The company is the only pure-play NAND supplier

• NAND prices are expected to rise significantly in 2026 by 234%, while DRAM pricing is also projected to remain strong with an increase of 125% this year

• Provides enterprise SSDs for data centers

• High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) and Stargate products are expected to begin shipping in Q4 2026 for AI data centers

• This is a major catalyst that I do not believe has been fully priced into the stock yet

• Price targets continue moving higher, ranging from $1,800-$3,250, while the stock currently trades around $1,650 per share as of the June 9, 2026 market close

Why I’m Remaining Calm While Others Panic

It’s important to note that the major hyperscalers are not pulling back on AI CapEx spending in 2026.

In fact, Alphabet recently raised an additional $80 billion to support its AI investments, bringing projected AI CapEx spending from the four major hyperscalers to more than $800 billion in 2026. META has also indicated that it wants to follow a similar path.

The two biggest drivers of the stock market in 2026 are AI and earnings growth.

Both remain firmly intact.

For that reason, I see no evidence of an AI bubble at this time.

Because of that, I believe the volatility we’re experiencing will be short-lived and that conditions should improve once we get through this temporary storm.

How to Use Market Volatility to Your Advantage and Smartly Buy the Dip

Use this volatility to your advantage by spreading your purchases over several days.

For example, let’s say you have $1,000 to invest this week. Instead of investing the entire $1,000 tomorrow, you could split it into four separate $250 purchases on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and the following Monday.

This is exactly what I am doing to take advantage of the potential volatility over the next week or so.

Closing Remarks

I expect continued selling pressure and additional red days until we work through these macro headwinds, particularly the CPI Report and the SpaceX IPO.

If that happens, I believe the market could potentially get back on track around Tuesday, June 16th or shortly thereafter.

I’d recommend spreading out your purchases in case the market declines further in the short term. Overall, however, I think buying this week is a solid idea. Just consider making multiple purchases rather than a single large buy to potentially improve your average entry price.

Enjoy the rollercoaster, and try not to puke!

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in securities mentioned, including the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), SanDisk Corporation (SNDK), and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX), as of June 9, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

Friday’s selloff normally would have me buying aggressively without thinking twice about it.

This time is different.

The reason is simple: the SpaceX IPO is scheduled for next Friday, June 12th, and I believe it could create additional volatility throughout the week as investors rotate capital into what many will view as the market’s next big opportunity.

Because of that, I’m being a little more strategic with my buying.

Instead of deploying all of my cash immediately, I think there’s a reasonable chance that Wednesday and Thursday could see additional weakness as investors sell existing positions to raise cash ahead of the IPO. If that happens, I want to have dry powder available.

Why I’m Not Buying SpaceX

I will not be participating in the SpaceX IPO.

My concern is valuation.

At a proposed valuation approaching $1.8 trillion, I believe the market is already pricing in an enormous amount of future success. Several independent analysts have also expressed caution regarding the company’s valuation relative to its growth expectations and recent operating losses tied to AI infrastructure investments.

What also gives me pause is how difficult it has become to derive a clean valuation as more businesses and assets become interconnected under Elon Musk’s broader ecosystem.

Could SpaceX become a phenomenal company over the next decade? Absolutely.

Do I think it’s attractive at nearly $1.8 trillion? Not for me.

I’d rather deploy capital into opportunities where I see a better risk-to-reward profile.

Buy #1: Rocket Lab (RKLB)

I remain long Rocket Lab and continue to view it as one of the highest-quality companies in the Space Economy.

What I like about Rocket Lab is that it has evolved beyond being a speculative launch company. It has become a diversified space infrastructure business with growing revenues, expanding capabilities, and a clear role in the long-term development of the space economy.

While RKLB remains one of my core holdings, I intentionally keep it as a medium-sized position because I still view the broader Space Economy as a speculative sector. The long-term opportunity is massive, but widespread profitability across the industry is still years away.

That said, if I had to choose one space stock to own for the next decade, Rocket Lab would be near the top of my list.

Buy #2: Planet Labs (PL)

Planet Labs is another company that continues to impress me.

After listening to the company’s recent earnings call, I came away encouraged by the number of new contracts being signed across government, defense, intelligence, commercial, and civilian markets.

The stock’s sharp post-earnings correction nearly convinced me to re-enter the position immediately.

The only reason I didn’t buy was because I’m currently focused on keeping my portfolio concentrated in my highest-conviction ideas.

What excites me most about Planet is that the company is gradually expanding beyond its traditional defense and intelligence customer base into commercial applications. If management executes successfully, those commercial opportunities could eventually become a major growth driver.

For investors seeking Space Economy exposure, I believe Planet Labs and Rocket Lab remain two of the strongest companies in the sector.

Buy #3: Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Marvell remains one of my highest-conviction AI Infrastructure positions.

My original thesis was that Marvell sits at the center of several critical AI infrastructure bottlenecks, including networking, optical interconnects, silicon photonics, co-packaged optics, and advanced packaging.

As AI infrastructure continues evolving, these technologies become increasingly important.

What I find particularly compelling is that Marvell isn’t dependent on a single AI trend. Instead, the company has exposure to multiple areas that are becoming essential as AI systems scale.

Last week, the company received another major catalyst when it was officially announced that Marvell will join the S&P 500 prior to the June 22nd market open.

That inclusion means index funds and benchmarked portfolios will need exposure to the stock.

Historically, S&P 500 additions often generate increased institutional demand leading up to inclusion dates, which is one reason I remain bullish.

Following Friday’s decline, I continue to view MRVL as attractive.

Buy #4: Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM)

My final buy of the week is the Roundhill Memory ETF.

The memory investment theme remains one of my favorite long-term opportunities in AI infrastructure.

My thesis has not changed: demand for memory and data storage continues to accelerate while supply constraints may persist for years.

Rather than trying to pick a single winner, DRAM provides diversified exposure to many of the leading companies benefiting from that trend.

The ETF has attracted enormous investor interest since launch, and despite its strong performance, I still believe the broader memory cycle has room to run.

Recent reports out of South Korea suggest Nvidia and SK Group may be announcing a new partnership or agreement. While I don’t know the exact details yet, developments like these reinforce the importance of memory infrastructure throughout the AI ecosystem.

For investors without existing memory exposure, I believe DRAM remains one of the best ways to participate in the trend.

How I’m Buying The Dip

If you’re considering adding exposure after Friday’s selloff, here’s the approach I would personally take.

Instead of investing everything at once, I’d spread purchases across multiple days:

• Invest 40% on Monday, June 8th

• Invest another 40% on any weakness that develops Wednesday or Thursday

• Invest the final 20% between June 15th and June 17th after the IPO-related volatility settles

No one knows exactly how the market will react to the SpaceX IPO, but I believe maintaining flexibility this week is important.

Volatility creates opportunity.

The key is making sure you still have capital available if better prices arrive later in the week.

As always, these are my personal opinions, not financial advice. Do your own research and invest according to your own risk tolerance.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in securities mentioned, including the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL), and Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB) as of June 7, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

I am bullish on IQE Plc ($IQEPF) at $0.526 per share as of the May 18, 2026 market close.

I initiated my position around $0.24 on March 10 following an ~11% opening decline.

My thesis is straightforward: as AI infrastructure scales, demand for optical networking and photonics components could grow significantly faster than the market currently expects. IQE sits upstream in that supply chain as a supplier of advanced compound semiconductor wafers used in photonics, wireless, and high-performance connectivity applications.

The Setup

Last month, the stock experienced a sharp selloff (~28% on April 28th), which I believe was largely a sympathy reaction tied to broader weakness across the photonics and optical networking space following developments involving Marvell Technology ($MRVL) and Poet Technologies ($POET).

In my opinion, that reaction had little direct impact on IQEPF’s underlying fundamentals, yet the stock was caught in what I’ve been calling the recent “Optical Bloodbath.”

The broader AI and data center ecosystem was also under pressure during this period following reports that OpenAI missed internal expectations, contributing to weakness across related names.

While sentiment deteriorated across the sector, I believe the reaction in IQEPF was disproportionate relative to its long-term opportunity.

Despite the volatility, IQEPF rallied from its April lows all the way to $0.766 on May 11th before pulling back again over the past week. As of market close on May 18, 2026, shares closed at $0.526.

I believe the recent weakness has been driven more by macro conditions than company-specific deterioration. Rising inflation expectations, higher treasury yields, elevated oil prices tied to the prolonged Iran conflict, and broader market volatility following last week’s CPI print have weighed heavily on speculative growth and AI-related names.

However, I continue to believe the long-term investment thesis remains intact.

Why I Think The Market May Be Undervaluing IQEPF

Capital continues flowing into photonics and optical infrastructure because these technologies are becoming increasingly critical to the AI supply chain.

Only a limited number of companies possess the expertise and manufacturing scale required to operate in this segment, and IQEPF appears well-positioned within that ecosystem.

After correcting roughly -26% over the past week, I believe the stock may present an attractive risk/reward setup near a major psychological support area around $0.50.

Since I entered the stock in March, buyers have consistently stepped in near prior consolidation zones and key support levels.

Nearly a month ago, IQEPF reached a 52-week high of $0.9526 on April 22nd. I believe the stock has the potential to revisit those levels over time as investors continue learning how important photonics and optical interconnect technologies are becoming to the future of AI infrastructure.

One of the biggest themes I believe the market may still be underestimating is the growing bottleneck developing inside the photonics supply chain.

IQEPF operates in a part of the market that could become increasingly valuable as demand for high-speed optical networking continues accelerating.

For comparison, AXT Inc ($AXTI), another supplier tied to the photonics and optics ecosystem through its Indium Phosphide exposure, has surged dramatically over the past year as investors began recognizing the importance of these enabling technologies.

AXTI’s market cap is currently around $6.93B, which is roughly 13.5x larger than IQEPF’s current ~$515M valuation.

IQEPF itself has also experienced a significant re-rating, reflecting growing investor interest in this space.

What IQEPF Actually Does

IQEPF operates deeper within the photonics supply chain.

The company manufactures epitaxial wafers used in optical and photonic devices, which are foundational components that help enable the lasers responsible for high-speed data transmission.

In simple terms:

No wafers → No lasers
No lasers → No optical transceivers

This positions IQEPF more as a “picks and shovels” supplier within the broader AI and photonics ecosystem.

Why Photonics Matters

As AI workloads continue expanding, optical interconnects are increasingly replacing traditional copper-based systems, particularly at higher speeds such as 800G and eventually 1.6T networking.

That trend could drive sustained demand for photonic components and the materials required to manufacture them.

Because IQEPF sits upstream in the value chain, the company may benefit from broader industry growth without being tied to the success of any single downstream product company.

IQEPF also supplies companies operating throughout the optical networking ecosystem, including players such as Lumentum Holdings ($LITE), which rely on high-quality epitaxial wafers for their components.

Competitive Positioning

While IQEPF is not alone in this space, relatively few companies specialize in advanced epitaxial wafer manufacturing at scale.

That may create a favorable competitive position over time, although competition from players like Coherent ($COHR) and others remains an important factor to monitor.

Risks To Consider

This is still a highly speculative small-cap stock and there are meaningful risks involved.

Some of the biggest risks include:

• A slowdown in AI or data center capital expenditure
• Slower-than-expected adoption of photonics technologies
• Advances in competing technologies such as silicon photonics
• Lower margins relative to downstream manufacturers
• Execution risk
• Potential future dilution
• High volatility
• Profitability concerns

Potential Tailwinds

Several developments could potentially benefit IQEPF over the coming years:

• Increased AI and hyperscaler capex
• Faster adoption of photonics technologies
• Tightening supply of epitaxial wafers
• Margin expansion
• Increased demand from Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
• Strategic value from MACOM Technology Solutions’ 11.5% stake in the company
• Potential future NASDAQ uplisting
• Possible monetization of the Taiwan facility
• Potential acquisition interest from larger optical or semiconductor players seeking supply chain control

Technical Setup

Technically, moving averages remain broadly bullish at the time of writing.

Key support levels traders appear to be watching include:

• $0.64–0.65 — Near-term support with heavy recent trading activity
• $0.61–0.63 — Fibonacci and short-term chart support zone
• $0.57–0.58 — Stronger structural support from recent pullback lows
• $0.50 — Major psychological support and prior consolidation zone

Key resistance levels include:

• ~$0.67–0.70 near-term resistance
• ~$0.77–0.81 stronger breakout resistance

Fundamental Outlook

I view IQEPF as a high-risk/high-reward turnaround opportunity with multi-bagger potential if:

• AI photonics adoption accelerates
• Margins improve
• Industry demand continues scaling
• Strategic value becomes more widely recognized by the market

Final Thoughts

Over the past several weeks, major hyperscalers revised projected AI capital expenditure estimates higher for 2026, potentially reaching as much as $725 billion industry-wide.

If those investments continue accelerating, I believe a portion of that spending will likely flow into photonics and optical infrastructure including the suppliers helping enable the lasers and optical interconnects that move data throughout modern AI data centers.

The long-term trend toward higher-speed optical networking appears intact, and IQEPF seems positioned to participate in that transition.

That said, this remains a highly volatile small-cap stock and may not be suitable for all investors.

For anyone considering a position, I personally think scaling in slowly and dollar-cost averaging makes more sense than chasing volatility.

Also note that because IQEPF trades OTC as a foreign stock, availability may vary depending on your brokerage platform.

I remain very bullish on IQEPF.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in securities mentioned, including IQE Plc (IQEPF), AXT Inc (AXTI), and Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE), as of May 19, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

While the financial talking heads have been focused on oil prices, the Iran conflict, and the newest “it trades” like Intel, AMD, and Micron, Nvidia has quietly been putting together one of the strongest moves in the entire market.

And most people still haven’t fully noticed it.

NVDA is currently on a seven-day win streak dating back to May 6th, gaining more than 19% during that stretch. On May 14, 2026, Nvidia hit a new all-time high of $236.54 before closing at $235.74.

What’s interesting is that this move didn’t come out of nowhere.

Back on April 15th, I posted a Substack Note saying Nvidia had finally broken out of its long trading range around $181–$183 and looked ready to move toward $200 and beyond.

Here’s what I wrote that day after market close:

“Everyone’s been staring at Nvidia for a year…waiting for it to do something and somehow missed this.

After ~6–7 months stuck around $180–$183, Nvidia just broke out and is now pushing toward the $200 psychological level.

That kind of long sideways base → breakout usually isn’t random. It’s a stock digesting prior gains and coiling for its next move.

The March 30 lows look like the reset it needed before the next leg higher.

I added shares today for the first time in a while. This move still doesn’t feel fully priced in.”

At the time, NVDA had spent nearly six months trading sideways. But once it finally broke through resistance, the stock started behaving exactly like a coiled spring finally being released.

Since that post, Nvidia has surged from under $200 per share to over $235 as of today’s close.

Why Nvidia Has Been Rallying

Part of this move is broader sector strength.

The semiconductor industry has been on an absolute tear since the March 30th lows, fueled by strong earnings growth and rising AI infrastructure spending from the major hyperscalers.

Projected AI capex from companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta has reportedly increased from roughly $670 billion to an estimated $725 billion for 2026.

That’s an enormous tailwind for Nvidia, which still sits at the center of the AI infrastructure boom.

The China Catalyst

But there are also company-specific reasons why NVDA has accelerated higher recently.

One major development was the last-minute addition of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to President Trump’s trip to China to meet with President Xi.

Markets immediately reacted to the possibility that Nvidia’s H200 chips could once again be sold to approved Chinese firms.

And it now appears those expectations may have been correct.

Reports indicate the U.S. is clearing a path for limited AI chip sales to China, with Nvidia reportedly reaching agreements involving major Chinese companies including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance.

That matters enormously.

For a company that had effectively been locked out of a massive market, this potentially reopens an entirely new revenue channel that investors had largely written off.

The stock even continued climbing in after-hours trading following the news, helping Nvidia officially cross the $6 trillion market cap milestone, the first company in history to do so.

A New Challenger Appears

Interestingly, all of this comes as a new AI chip competitor entered the public markets today: Cerebras Systems (CBRS).

Cerebras, whose customers reportedly include OpenAI and Amazon Web Services, had one of the most explosive IPO debuts we’ve seen in a long time.

The stock was priced at $185, opened dramatically higher, and finished its first session up more than 68%.

That IPO performance tells you something important:

Investor appetite for AI infrastructure plays is still incredibly strong.

And right now, Nvidia remains the company setting the standard.

Final Thoughts

I think the China developments are extremely bullish for Nvidia over the long term.

Even limited access to Chinese enterprise demand could create a meaningful new revenue stream for the company, especially if additional firms eventually receive approval to purchase Nvidia chips.

More importantly, the broader AI spending cycle still appears to be accelerating not slowing down.

For months, Nvidia traded sideways while the rest of the market chased newer stories. But now the stock has finally broken out technically, fundamentals remain strong, and major macro tailwinds are lining up behind it.

To me, this looks less like the end of the move and more like the beginning of the next major leg higher.

I remain very bullish on NVDA.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in securities mentioned, including the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), and Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), as of May 14, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

Tomorrow morning, Monday, May 11th, 2026, I plan on allocating additional capital into two of my highest-conviction AI Infrastructure positions: DRAM, the Roundhill Memory ETF, and LITE, Lumentum Holdings Inc.

In my opinion, the Memory/Data Storage space and the Photonics/Optics space have emerged as two of the strongest and most important areas within the broader AI trade as hyperscalers continue aggressively building next-generation AI infrastructure.

DRAM provides exposure to the global Memory and Data Storage ecosystem including companies such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate, which I believe are positioned to benefit from accelerating AI-driven demand, tightening supply conditions, and rising DRAM/NAND pricing power.

Meanwhile, LITE is positioned at the center of the growing transition from traditional copper networking toward photonics and optical infrastructure within AI data centers. As AI systems continue scaling from 800G toward 1.6T architectures, I believe companies specializing in lasers, optical interconnects, and Co-Packaged Optics could see significant long-term demand growth.

This article outlines why I am increasing exposure to both DRAM and LITE this week, along with the major catalysts, industry tailwinds, institutional flows, and AI infrastructure trends that I believe could potentially send both of these investments much higher.

1. DRAM = Roundhill Memory ETF

Current Price: $52.80 as of 5/8/2026 market close

I remain extremely bullish on the Memory and Data Storage space.

I’ve already seen 2x-5x returns in my SNDK, WDC, and STX positions since initiating them back in September 2025, but last Monday on May 4th, 2026, I also started building a position in DRAM because I wanted direct exposure to the South Korean memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix.

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) is essentially an AI “Picks And Shovels” play focused on the global Memory and Data Storage ecosystem. Holdings include Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate, and other major players benefiting from exploding AI infrastructure demand.

Tim Seymour recently stated that Samsung may be the most undervalued mega cap in the world, trading at roughly 8x earnings.

DRAM has quickly become one of the hottest ETFs on Wall Street.

The ETF reached $1 Billion in AUM in only 10 trading days, making it one of the fastest ETFs ever to hit that milestone. Since launching on April 2nd, 2026 at $27.00, DRAM has already nearly doubled and closed Friday with approximately $5 Billion in AUM.

A major reason for DRAM’s popularity is its heavy exposure to South Korean semiconductor leaders Samsung and SK Hynix, which are difficult for many U.S. traders to access directly, especially in the options market.

That has created an absolute feeding frenzy in DRAM options activity.

DRAM Options Activity Is Exploding

• 215,000 total contracts traded Friday

• ~14x average daily options volume

• Nearly $100 Million in options premium traded in a single session

• Heavy bullish call bias

Notable Bullish Trade

• Trader bought 3,000 June 18th 56/65 call spreads

• Paid roughly $2.40 per spread

• ~$750K bullish bet that DRAM could rally another 25%+ within weeks

Upcoming Catalysts For DRAM

Samsung Worker Strike

Samsung workers are expected to begin striking on May 18th, 2026 over compensation disputes tied to SK Hynix wage structures. If the strike extends for multiple weeks, it could further tighten an already constrained memory market.

AI Inference Demand Is Accelerating

Over the past two years, AI demand was primarily driven by Large Language Model training.

Now the industry is entering the Inference AI phase.

That shift is massively increasing compute workloads and creating an entirely new demand wave for memory and data storage products that are already effectively sold out through 2026 and 2027 according to major industry players.

DRAM And NAND Pricing Power

Gartner projects DRAM pricing could rise 125% in 2026 while NAND Flash pricing could increase 234%.

Supply Crunch Continues

Industry experts expect no meaningful additional capacity until late 2027 at the earliest. Personally, I believe the supply-demand imbalance may persist well into H1 2028.

Massive Capital Inflows

It took only 10 trading days for DRAM to surpass $1B AUM and just 26 trading days to hit $5B AUM.

Momentum like this tends to attract additional institutional and retail flows once broader Wall Street attention kicks in.

Options Activity Fueling Momentum

Modern momentum trades are increasingly driven by options flows, and DRAM is quickly becoming one of the hottest options trades in the market.

2. LITE = Lumentum Holdings Inc

Current Price: $903.80 as of 5/8/2026 market close

Outside of Memory, I believe Photonics and Optics has been one of the strongest performing areas in the market throughout 2026, and in my view, LITE is one of the premier names in the entire space.

Lumentum specializes in transceivers, lasers, pump lasers, Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Optical Circuit Switching (OCS).

These technologies are becoming increasingly critical as AI data centers transition away from traditional copper wiring toward photonics and optical infrastructure that transmits data using light.

As hyperscalers upgrade from 800G to 1.6T architectures, copper wiring is becoming a major bottleneck because it physically cannot handle the required data throughput efficiently at scale.

Lumentum is directly positioned to benefit from that transition.

On March 2nd, 2026, Nvidia invested $2 Billion into LITE to support its Silicon Photonics initiatives.

Since that announcement:

• LITE is up 61.84%

• Up 139.41% YTD

• Up 1,369.83% over the past 12 months

The company has become one of the clearest beneficiaries of the AI Infrastructure buildout.

Jensen Huang has repeatedly stated that AI represents the largest infrastructure buildout in history and believes the initial buildout phase could last 6-8 years.

Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, we’re only about 3.5 years into that cycle.

In my opinion, this trade still has substantial runway.

Upcoming Catalysts For LITE

Nasdaq-100 Inclusion

On May 9th, 2026, Nasdaq announced that Lumentum Holdings (LITE) will join the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on May 18th, replacing CoStar Group (CSGP).

This matters because index inclusion often creates forced institutional buying from funds benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100.

We already saw a similar effect after LITE joined the S&P 500 on March 23, 2026.

Increased Hyperscaler AI Spending

Over the past several weeks, major hyperscalers increased projected 2026 AI Capex from roughly $670B to now more than $700B.

That additional spending directly benefits critical AI infrastructure suppliers like Lumentum.

Growing Backlog

Current backlog sits around $400 Million and continues building.

EPS Expansion

Street estimates currently project Calendar Year 2027 EPS around $10 per share.

Personally, I believe those estimates may still prove conservative if AI infrastructure demand remains this strong.

CPO Deliveries Beginning Next Year

Initial CPO deliveries are expected to begin in late 2027, helping replace longer copper interconnects with optical solutions.

That transition could become one of the next major legs of AI infrastructure spending.

Closing Remarks

I plan on increasing my positions in both DRAM and LITE on Monday morning shortly after market open and may continue adding throughout the week on any meaningful dips.

Over the past several years, buying weakness in high-conviction secular growth themes has been one of the most effective strategies for my portfolio personally.

Following the March 30th lows, I consolidated my portfolio further into my highest-conviction names, and both DRAM and LITE remain among my strongest long-term convictions in the AI infrastructure trade.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in securities mentioned, including the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), and Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE), as of May 10, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

Semiconductor stocks set a record 18th straight day of gains on Friday, April 24, 2026. This was the longest winning streak in the 32-year history of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), surpassing the previous record of 15 days set back in 2014, as well as the popular semiconductor ETFs that track the index, like the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

On a forward earnings basis, the index is now trading at approximately ~25-26x forward earnings, compared to a 10-year average forward P/E of about ~19x. That puts the sector at roughly a 30–35% premium to its historical norm. The expansion is largely being driven by AI-related earnings expectations and momentum, not just current earnings. This implies expected earnings growth of approximately ~30-40% to justify current multiples.

ETFs SOXX and SMH have attracted a combined $5.5 billion in April inflows alone, making this month already the highest single-month total on record. SMH leads with $3.4 billion in fresh capital, while SOXX has pulled in $2.1 billion, signaling broad-based institutional conviction. This represents approximately ~14% of total assets under management for these funds. That’s a huge monthly inflow relative to their size. A double-digit % of AUM in a single month is strong evidence of aggressive positioning, not just passive drift.

The rally is so sustained that Wall Street is struggling to find the right historical analogy. The closest comparison dates to the late-cycle dynamics observed during the 1999–2000 dot-com period.

This article examines whether the rally is supported by fundamentals or driven by positioning, and what that means for investors.

What sparked Friday’s move higher?

Friday’s move was powered higher largely by a blowout Q1 2026 beat and raise by Intel. Intel’s phenomenal quarter lifted the entire semiconductor sector, which included new record highs in Advanced Micro Devices, Arm Holdings, Teradyne, Applied Materials, Micron Technology, and more.

Because of Intel’s terrific quarter, in Friday’s session alone, Intel soared by 23.6% marking its largest single-day gain since October 1987 (Black Monday period volatility), after the American chipmaker posted first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations and shared an upbeat forecast for its current quarter.

Intel set June-quarter revenue guidance at between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion, coming in above the $13 billion that analysts tracked by FactSet were looking for. This implies sequential growth of approximately ~12-13% and year-over-year growth of ~11-12%.

Intel has a stronger balance sheet, a new leadership team, as well as a renewed focus on engineering execution, according to INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and is ready to capture opportunities in the near term while focusing on innovation for long-term growth.

A day earlier, in Thursday’s after-hours trading session, Intel rose past its previous record high of $75.81 per share that was set during the dot-com era in August 2000.

As of Friday, April 24’s market close, INTC is trading at $82.54 per share. Not only is the stock trading at new 52-week highs, but Intel Corporation is also trading at all-time highs dating back to its IPO in October 1971.

Will INTC’s ascent continue?

In the near term, upward pressure on the stock may persist in the coming days and weeks.

I feel this way because prior to last week’s earnings, 33 of 47 analysts rated Intel’s stock “hold,” nine rated the stock “buy,” and five rated it “sell.” This skew suggests positioning was neutral-to-underweight prior to earnings because most analysts on Wall Street had rated INTC as either a “hold” or a “sell,” the stock has experienced a sizable re-rating due to it now being viewed positively as a core data center infrastructure holding.

With last Thursday’s monumental earnings report and raised guidance, many of these analysts were caught off guard and will now be forced to raise their price targets over the coming days and weeks. Historically, post-earnings estimate revisions tend to occur over a 1–3 week window, which will likely push the stock higher in the near term as each new target hike is released.

HSBC upgraded INTC to “buy” on Tuesday, April 21, from “hold,” with a price target of $95, up from $50. “While foundry deals have driven a 60% rally in the shares, Intel’s ‘significant’ server processor momentum is not priced into the stock,” HSBC wrote in a research note.

BNP Paribas also upgraded Intel to “neutral” from “underperform,” with a $60 price target.

Don’t expect smooth sailing for INTC. There will be some volatility in the name.

However, there may be some volatility along the way as the stock enters price discovery at all-time highs. Investors are bound to want to take profits and understandably so. INTC is up 129.21% year to date as of the April 24, 2026 market close and up 302.69% since the U.S. government took a 10% stake in the company on August 22, 2025.

According to VandaTrack, retail investors have already started to take some profits after Friday’s move following a strong earnings report. However, retail flows remain a secondary driver relative to institutional positioning.

The firm found that small investors have net bought $2.6 billion worth of the chipmaker’s shares since September 1, 2025. The average retail investor’s stake has jumped around 90% since then, Vanda found.

“Retail investors have been among the smarter money in Intel of late,” the firm wrote in a Friday note. “They started piling in from the beginning of [September] last year… and haven’t looked back.”

These same traders have sold more than $18 million worth of Intel stock amid Friday’s rally, Vanda said. Intel climbed to an intraday high after reporting better-than-expected earnings for its sixth consecutive quarter.

“Hard to begrudge them,” Vanda said. “Most

have made a pretty tidy return.”

What sparked Intel’s recovery?

Intel Corporation was largely left for dead after falling into a slump following its failure to capitalize on the shift to the mobile computing era unleashed by the debut of the iPhone in 2007.

It wasn’t until about eight months ago that the only true American semiconductor fabrication foundry got a new lease on life, when Donald Trump threw the company a much-needed lifeline. To protect the only U.S.-based leading-edge logic manufacturer at scale, the U.S. government took a 10% stake in INTC at $20.47 per share. The long-term implications of government ownership include potential constraints on capital allocation and strategic flexibility.

Federal officials said they invested in Intel to bolster U.S. technology and domestic manufacturing.

As of Friday’s market close, INTC is at $82.54. That is a sizable return in a short amount of time, and the country’s stake in Intel appears to be a success so far.

The U.S. government hasn’t been the only one to benefit from Intel’s resurgence

Another big winner has been Nvidia, which made a $5 billion investment in Intel and is collaborating on custom data centers that form the backbone of artificial intelligence infrastructure, as well as personal computer products, according to a September 18, 2025 press release.

On the day of the announcement, Nvidia said it would spend $5 billion to buy Intel common stock at $23.28 per share. The investment, which was subject to regulatory approvals, came a month after the U.S. government took a 10% stake in Intel.

The deal was “bullish for U.S. tech,” Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said in a client note.

“This is a game-changer deal for Intel as it now brings them front and center into the AI game,” Ives said. “Along with the recent U.S. government investment for 10% (equity stake in Intel), this has been a golden few weeks for Intel after years of pain and frustration for investors.”

The economic impact of this partnership depends on execution and margin structure, which remain uncertain.

Semiconductor super-cycle is accelerating

The SOX, the benchmark by which the global chip industry measures itself, has gained over 39% over the course of this streak. That figure alone would be remarkable in a quarter. Delivered in little over three weeks, it is unusually rapid for that time frame. If the month ends at current levels, April 2026 will stand as the index’s strongest monthly performance since February 2000.

The primary driver of this semiconductor surge over the last month has been the rise in AI infrastructure spending by major hyperscalers,

Which is projected to reach $700 billion cumulatively by the end of 2026. This is a primary driver of the economy in 2026.

This has created a global economic crossroads in which tech giants are pouring hundreds of billions into AI while geopolitical tensions drive oil prices and consumer anxiety.

Several bullish events have led to the melt-up in semiconductors. First, TSMC reported a 40.6% revenue jump. Additionally, retail favorites Intel and Nvidia reached new all-time highs on AI chip demand, particularly for CPUs rather than GPUs.

By reaching a new all-time high, Nvidia has surpassed a $5 trillion market cap. Its new Vera Rubin chip architecture, built for agentic AI, is rewriting the rulebook.

Some market participants have outlined bull-case scenarios where Nvidia could approach significantly higher valuations over time to reach a potential market cap of $20 trillion by 2030. Such outcomes would require sustained hypergrowth, margin expansion, and continued dominance. These tend to be conditions that are uncertain.

The reason this is even conceivable is that AI inference has a real shot at becoming the most valuable commodity in the economy potentially positioning Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang as one of the most influential figures in global markets.

A new all-time high for the SOX relative to the S&P 500

The SOX rose to an all-time high of 1.39 relative to the S&P 500.

This means semiconductors are now outperforming the average S&P 500 stock by the largest margin ever recorded, nearly three times the long-term average ratio of 0.460. Historically, extreme deviations in this ratio have preceded periods of relative underperformance, which could ultimately lead to mean-reversion.

The current ratio stands 38% above the dot-com bubble peak, which was never exceeded over the 20 years that followed.

This comes as the SOX closed higher on Friday for a record 18 consecutive trading sessions—the longest winning streak in its history—and is now trading 40% above its 200-day moving average.

Semiconductor stocks set a new record market cap weighting

Semiconductor stocks now represent a record 14% of total U.S. stock market capitalization. This concentration increases systemic risk if sector expectations are not met.

This share has more than tripled over the last three years and is now double the level seen at the 2000 dot-com bubble peak of 7%.

Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector has rallied for 18 straight sessions since the March 30 lows, marking its longest streak on record. It is also the most overbought in history.

Hedge funds have been aggressively buying tech stocks, especially since the March 30, 2026 lows

According to Goldman Sachs, hedge funds currently have nearly 35% net market value global exposure, up about 5% since the March 30 lows. This reflects a significant increase in technology stock ownership by institutional investors and highlights where capital is flowing.

Momentum-driven positioning has historically performed well in liquidity-rich environments but can reverse quickly.

Market highs versus record low sentiment

On Friday, April 24, the S&P 500 posted its highest close on record at 7,165.08. The index is now up $7.6 trillion since the March 30 bottom.

At the same time, sentiment is at record lows, with U.S. consumer confidence plunging to a 73-year low due to the oil shock and rising gas prices.

Divergences between sentiment and price can persist but are often resolved through volatility rather than trend continuation.

The semiconductor value chain

The hardware map tells the real story. AI has evolved well beyond a “GPU-only” narrative where investors simply own Nvidia Corporation (NVDA).

Now the landscape includes CPUs from Intel Corporation (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Arm Holdings Plc (ARM), and Nvidia Corporation (NVDA); High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), DRAM, and NAND from Micron Technology Inc (MU) and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK); hard drives from Western Digital Corporation (WDC) and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX); semiconductor equipment from ASML Holding NV (ASML), Applied Materials Inc (AMAT), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) and KLA Corporation (KLAC), as well as Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) and Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors (MLCCs).

Each segment carries different margin profiles and cyclicality as we go deeper in the stack.

The next big angle?

Agentic AI is set to push bottlenecks across the AI supply chain into CPUs and memory. Morgan Stanley estimates an additional $32 billion to $60 billion in the data center CPU market by 2030.

CPUs are being re-rated and are turning heads

Most attention has been on GPUs, but inference workloads are driving renewed demand for CPUs. That’s why companies like Intel and Arm are back in focus.

Intel is regaining momentum. Strong earnings and improving sentiment have pushed the stock higher, prompting investors to reconsider its role in AI infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Arm has become one of the hottest trades in the market, reflecting how central its architecture is to next-generation AI compute, especially as power efficiency becomes critical at scale.

Nvidia may be the most interesting angle. While best known for GPUs, it is expanding across the full stack. Its growing involvement in CPUs, particularly through its relationship with Arm, opens a new high-margin revenue stream that may still be underappreciated.

Even Jensen Huang has acknowledged that this segment could become significantly larger than expected.

If GPUs were the first wave of AI infrastructure, CPUs may represent the next bottleneck and are quickly becoming an emerging area of investor focus with projected growth of $32 billion to $60 billion by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley.

SK Hynix just made the AI memory story bigger

SK Hynix reported strong earnings on April 23, 2026. It wasn’t just another high-bandwidth memory (HBM) report. DRAM, NAND, and eSSD all contributed meaningfully, and management indicated pricing remains favorable. This is bullish for the other Memory players from the United States who report their earnings this week.

Among U.S. memory providers, Micron operates across HBM, DRAM, NAND, and SSDs, while SNDK represents a more pure-play NAND and enterprise SSD exposure. These are distinct investment angles, but the AI storage tailwind is clear.

According to Gartner, DRAM and NAND flash prices in 2026 are expected to rise by 125% and 234%, respectively, with meaningful supply relief not expected until late 2027.

However, given long equipment lead times, meaningful new capacity may not come online until at least the first half of 2028. Memory markets are historically cyclical, and pricing strength can reverse sharply.

Global semiconductor revenue is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion in 2026, representing the strongest growth in two decades, according to Gartner. This helps explain the sector’s sharp gains since the March 30 lows.

The DRAM ETF offers a new access point for investors

The new DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF gives U.S. investors rare access to leading South Korean memory makers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. It also includes major U.S. memory players like Micron, SNDK, WDC, and STX.

The ETF is already up 37.78% in less than a month as of the April 24, 2026 close. However, ETF performance is still highly correlated to underlying commodity cycles.

It may appeal to investors who missed the sharp run-ups in SanDisk and Micron, whose shares are now considered expensive by many retail investors at $989.90 and $496.72, respectively.

At around $37.20 per share, the ETF offers diversified exposure to global memory leaders at a lower entry point. It may also provide a more balanced risk profile compared to owning individual names that have already seen substantial gains.

Key Risks to the Thesis

Major potential risks include:

* AI capex slowdown

* Overcapacity (memory + foundry)

* Policy/geopolitical risk

* Valuation compression

Bull / Base / Bear Case

Potential outcomes:

* Bull case (25%)

* AI capex exceeds expectations

* Multiples stay elevated

→ SOX +20–30%

* Base case (50%)

* Earnings catch up partially

→ sideways / modest gains

* Bear case (25%)

* Capex slows + multiple compression

→ -20% drawdown

Closing remarks

Across the semiconductor sector, valuations are undergoing a re-rating driven largely by AI. The durability of this re-rating will ultimately depend on whether earnings growth can keep pace with multiple expansion.

Analysts have begun drawing parallels to the late-1990s tech supercycle, as AI, defense spending, and supply chain reshoring converge as structural tailwinds. Today’s catalysts, however, appear broader: surging demand for compute, geopolitical forces reshaping supply chains, and rising defense-related electronics spending across NATO countries.

At current levels, risk/reward appears increasingly skewed following strong momentum-driven gains over the past year. Despite this, I continue to favor selective exposure to higher-quality names particularly memory-focused companies such as SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology ahead of upcoming earnings this week.

My constructive view is driven by tightening conditions in certain memory segments, where supply has struggled to keep pace with AI-related demand over the past several quarters. Industry commentary from companies such as Micron Technology and Western Digital suggests that forward supply in some categories is already largely committed, pointing to the potential for continued pricing strength if demand persists.

These types of bottlenecks tend to emerge most clearly in AI-linked memory segments, where supply additions lag demand due to long lead times and capital intensity.

When these imbalances occur, companies with available capacity and pricing leverage can see meaningful expansion in margins and free cash flow. This is the dynamic I actively look for—what I refer to as “bottleneck beneficiaries”—and where I concentrate capital when my conviction is high.

That said, this thesis depends on supply constraints persisting through the next wave of capacity additions. Historically, this is a fragile assumption in memory markets. A key question is whether AI-driven demand proves durable enough to moderate the industry’s traditional boom-bust cycle. If demand becomes more sustained and less elastic, memory producers could see a structurally improved earnings profile over time.

While some investors, including Michael Burry, have expressed caution, I remain constructive on the semiconductor sector. Upcoming earnings reports, particularly from large technology companies, will be critical in either validating or challenging current expectations.

This is not investment advice. The author may hold positions in semiconductor-related securities.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds positions in securities mentioned, including Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), SanDisk Corporation (SNDK), Western Digital Corporation (WDC), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), as of April 28, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

Part 1: Interconnect Bottlenecks

Most investors remain heavily concentrated in broad indices like the S&P 500, leaving them underexposed to emerging segments of the AI supply chain where much of the current growth is occurring.

Market Context

The S&P 500 index has finished the week negative six of the last seven weeks and the last four straight weeks have been negative.

While most normal investors are seeing a sea of red and are feeling the pain, my portfolio has diverged from this trend.

My portfolio has outperformed major indices over this period, largely due to concentrated exposure to AI infrastructure bottlenecks.

Why Is That?

This is driven by a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio focused on AI bottlenecks.

Major indexes like the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 have a high number of losing stocks.

2025 Major Index Statistics

• S&P 500 (Large Cap)

  • Annual Return: The index gained approximately 17.9% for the full year.

  • Negative Performers: While a specific final percentage of stocks finishing negative for the full year is not explicitly cited, roughly 20% to 30% of the index trailed significantly or finished in the red.

    • Market concentration remained high; only about 27.7% of stocks outperformed the index itself.

    • Approximately 20 S&P 500 companies lost more than a third of their value during the year.

• Russell 2000 (Small Cap)

  • Annual Return: The index finished the year up approximately 12.8%.

  • Negative Performers: A substantial portion of the index struggled with profitability and performance throughout 2025.

    • Roughly 40% to 42% of companies in the Russell 2000 reported negative earnings(unprofitability) during the year.

    • Despite the positive index-level return, small caps faced a “dismal” first quarter, falling 9.5% before recovering in the second half of the year.

GremlinsAtPlay Index In Comparison

This is simply not the case in my GremlinsAtPlay index. Of my few holdings that currently are in the red, they make up a very insignificant portion of my portfolio.

The portfolio is intentionally concentrated in a small number of high-conviction positions, resulting in asymmetric exposure to key bottlenecks.

Where Do I See Exponential Growth Opportunity?

I have been sharing the virtues of the Photonics and Optics sector for the last 6 months.

It has become the best performing sector of the market over the last 3-4 months especially along with the Memory Names in my opinion.

Why Photonics and Optics?

AI needs faster interconnects. Photonics delivers that at the speed of light.

It doesn’t require copper and it doesn’t overheat.

Core Investment Thesis

Own the bottlenecks in the AI supply chain.

AI Supply Chain Stack

1. Chips (GPUs)

2. Memory

3. Interconnects (Photonics) ← bottleneck

4. Infrastructure

My Major Investment Themes

I have a framework for identifying where value accrues in AI.

I am heavily invested in both spaces, Memory and Photonics and Optics because currently, they are the biggest bottlenecks in the entire AI Supply Chain Ecosystem.

Essentially, I have created my own “Major Bottlenecks ETF.”

Early positioning has resulted in strong performance, reinforcing conviction in the thesis.

Why Invest in the Major Bottlenecks?

Each of these Major Bottlenecks are causing a choke point for clients but for the businesses that make and sell these products, it is a meaningful opportunity for serious revenue growth due to the rise of AI. When this happens, pricing power improves materially and demand becomes relatively price inelastic in the near term.

Identifying and investing in these bottlenecks can create asymmetric return opportunities.

When Did I First Learn About Photonics?

About six months ago, I first discovered the Photonics and Optics sector by chance after throughly researching every single step in the entire AI Supply Chain Ecosystem.

This has become one of the best investment related decisions that I have ever made and we are still so early on this trade.

Finding Initial Investment Success in Photonics

Key positions initiated between December 2025 and March 2026 have appreciated significantly (ranging from ~25% to 185%+), driven by multiple expansion and accelerating AI-related demand expectations reinforcing conviction in the thesis. These key positions include Lumentum Holdings Inc, AXT Inc, and Ciena Corporation.

On December 1, 2025, I pulled the trigger on the leader in the Photonics and Optics sector, Lumentum Holdings Inc ($LITE).

• Since 12/1/2025, I am Up +157.53% on my $LITE holdings as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

• Bought $LITE at $311.42

• Currently Trading at $801.99 as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

• Second Largest Holding In My Entire Portfolio

• $LITE just was included in the S&P 500 on Monday, March 23, 2026 pre-market.

On January 7, 2026, I added AXT Inc ($AXTI) to my Portfolio.

• Since 1/7/2025, I am Up +185.05% on my $AXTI holdings as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

• Bought $AXTI at $24.01

• Currently Trading at $68.44 as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

On January 20, 2026, I added Ciena Corporation ($CIEN) to my Portfolio.

• Since 1/7/2025, I am Up +78.53% on my $CIEN holdings as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

• Bought $CIEN at $240.51

• Currently Trading at $429.38 as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

On March 3, 2026, I added Applied Optoelectronics Inc ($AAOI) to my Portfolio.

• Since 3/3/2025, I am Up +26.00% on my $AAOI holdings as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

• Bought $AAOI at $85.44

• Currently Trading at $113.90 as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

On March 10, 2026, I added IQE PLC ($IQEPF) to my Portfolio.

• Since 3/10/2025, I am Up +44.75% on my $IQEPF holdings as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

• Bought $IQEPF at $0.24

• Currently Trading at $0.3474 as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

GremlinsAtPlay’s Original Photonics Supply Chain Ecosystem Investment Basket

• $LITE- Optical Transceivers & Engines

• $AXTI- InP & InGaAs Substrates; Wafer Foundation; Epitaxial Wafers; Only 2-3 Companies ($AXTI and Sumitomo) control 75% of the market, and new factories take 18-24 months to bring online.

• $CIEN- Optical Transceivers & Engines; Network Switching & Routing

• $AAOI- Optical Transceivers & Engines; Optical Transceivers Manufacturing

• $IQEPF- Epitaxial & Crystal Growth

On March 24, 2026, I added the Missing Piece, Tower Semiconductor Ltd ($TSEM).

• Since 3/24/2025, I am Up +0.24% on my $TSEM holdings as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

• Bought $TSEM at $180.38

• Currently Trading at $180.82 as of 3/24/2026 Market Close

New Addition to GremlinsAtPlay’s Photonics Supply Chain Ecosystem Investment Basket

• $TSEM- Foundry; New Fabs take 2-3 Years, Equipment lead times are 18+ Months.

Why $TSEM?

Because they are the Foundry that makes the entire Photonics space operate.

New Fabs take 2-3 Years, Equipment lead times are 18+ Months.

Where Are The Biggest Opportunities Still In Photonics and Optics?

Here’s how the market is mispricing the future.

The market is still in the early stages of recognizing interconnect and bandwidth—not compute—as the primary constraint in AI scaling.

Despite recent appreciation, I believe the market is still underpricing the Photonics and Optics companies that are doing the following things mentioned below.

Not Priced In Yet

1. The Upstream Supply Chain Companies that:

• Make the Raw Materials. For example, consulting firm and industry report estimates suggest that there is a 70% supply gap in the critical raw material InP.

• Grow the Wafers

• Build the Equipment

• Test the Chips

• These are extremely undervalued.

• Why? Because these companies remain underfollowed by the broader market.

2. The Companies that Control the Main Chokepoints in the Photonics Supply Chain:

• Make the Crystals

• Grow the Wafers

• Build the Machines

• Test the Chips

• These companies will benefit disproportionately.

• Why? Because these are small companies (most of them are under $2 Billion in market cap) in an industry where the end customers $NVDA and $GOOGL are worth Trillions. The strategy requires long-term conviction and tolerance for volatility.

3. The Companies that are involved in:

• The Transition to CPO

• Large-Scale CPO Deployment in 2028-2030

• Why? Because this means that the Photonics trade is in its infancy in 2026 and will run for years; not months until 2030.

4. The Companies that are involved in:

• Silicon-Based Photonics Solutions

• Why? Because these companies may replace InP lasers in the future. This is a 3-5 year possibility, not immediate.

Already To Somewhat Priced In

5. The Downstream Companies:

• Transceiver Makers

• Why? Because these are the most visible companies in the space. However, based on recent forecasts, industry reports indicate the global optical transceiver market size in 2026 is projected to be approximately $14.85 billion to $17.15 billion. The global optical transceiver market size in 2032 is projected to be approximately $25.67 billion to $34.1 billion.

Why These Companies Are Being Mispriced By The Market Currently

There are several reasons for this including:

• Analyst coverage is limited

• Market caps too small for institutions

• Capex timelines misunderstood

• AI demand forecasts still conservative

Investment Horizon

• Near-term (0–12 months): transceivers, demand spikes

• Mid-term (1–3 years): wafer + material constraints

• Long-term (3–5 years): CPO, silicon photonics

Potential Risks

Key risks to this thesis include:

1. Reduction in AI Spending

2. Silicon Photonics Disruption- This is the potential that InP lasers may be replaced by Silicon Based Photonics. This is 3-5 years away though. Not short term risk.

3. Access to InP- InP is susceptible to possible disruption because access is heavily dependent on Chinese exports of key raw materials.

4. Concentration Risks from Major Investors like $NVDA

What Could Prove Me Wrong Sooner Than Expected

A faster-than-expected transition to silicon photonics or a slowdown in hyperscaler capex would challenge this thesis.

Closing Remarks

Despite these potential risks, the Photonics and Optics space has a a multi-year runway for growth that should last until H1 2030 if current market conditions hold.

If AI scaling continues to be constrained by interconnect and memory bandwidth, capital will continue to flow toward these bottlenecks. The opportunity is not just in identifying the trend—but in owning the constraints that define it.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds positions in securities mentioned, including Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE), AXT Inc (AXTI), Ciena Corporation (CIEN), Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI), IQE PLC (IQEPF), and Tower Semiconductor Ltd (TSEM), as of March 25, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

The S&P 500 index is trading at 6,506.48, which is -496.10 points off its all-time high of 7,002.58 that it reached on January 28, 2026. As a result, the S&P 500 index is -7.08% off its record high and is approaching the 10% threshold typically defined as a market correction.

The S&P 500 is currently trading significantly below its record high, but performance indicates a decline year-to-date (YTD), a drop of approximately -5.13%. The index is trading down -351.99 points from its 2026 starting price of 6,858.47 on January 2, 2026, which was the first trading day of the year.

The S&P 500 index has been trending downward for the better part of the last two months.

What Is the Reason for This?

Drivers include the Iranian conflict, rising geopolitical tensions, oil prices, inflation fears, market volatility, and high Fed interest rates.

Oil is the dominant catalyst.

The Current Market Reality

As of March 22, 2026, the S&P 500 has finished negative in six of the last seven weeks and only one week managed to post a positive return.

The index dropped from a high of 6,976.44 seven weeks ago to its most recent close of 6,506.48, for a percentage decline of -6.74%.

The S&P 500 index has closed its fourth consecutive losing week. The index dropped -1.5% in the past week alone due to the market facing persistent downward pressure, primarily driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices and inflation.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index

The CNN Fear & Greed Index is currently at 15, which signals “extreme fear.” Just a week ago, the Fear & Greed Index was at 22, which is still in the “extreme fear” zone but better than its current reading of 15. One month ago, the Fear & Greed Index was 44, which signals “fear”; however, it was extremely close to the “neutral” zone.

Dipping Below the 200-Day Moving Average

Additionally, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average (DMA) on Thursday, March 19, 2026, at 6,606.49.

This breach marked the first time the index finished below this key technical level in 214 trading sessions. This ended a streak above the long-term trendline that had been in place since May 2025, which was the start of the 214-session streak that just ended.

Furthermore, on March 19, 2026, the S&P 500 dipped below its 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year. The last time was in March 2025. This has increased investor caution because a breach of the 200-DMA often signals a significant shift in technical momentum.

Often, a slip below the 200-day moving average is a classic inflection point. It can either reverse into a fresh rally or precede a deeper correction. With volatility and geopolitical risks rising, the next few sessions will determine whether this is a shakeout or something more serious.

What Is the Significance of the 200-Day Moving Average?

The 200-day moving average (DMA) is an extremely important technical indicator to pay attention to. It represents the average price investors have paid over the past 200 sessions, and its direction is seen as a key bellwether of the broader equity market.

Bullish Case

When the index is trading above it, sentiment tends to be bullish, and dips are often bought.

Bearish Case

However, when it falls below, that dynamic shifts quickly, with risk appetite disappearing and the bulls retreating from positions.

This is why breaks of the 200-day moving average can sometimes lead to accelerated moves, particularly if they are confirmed by follow-through selling, because large institutional investors often use this level as a trigger for adjusting exposure. However, not every break leads to a sustained downturn, and recent history shows that outcomes can be mixed.

Recent Historical Context of the S&P 500 Falling Below the 200-DMA

Prior to the current March 2026 breakdown, the S&P 500 had several notable interactions with its 200-day DMA.

By looking at recent examples, history tells us that two clear patterns emerge: either the S&P 500 index quickly recovered, began to trade above the 200-DMA, and continued to rally to new all-time highs, or it sank into a drawdown or correction period that lasted multiple months.

For example, in early 2023, there were two separate, short-lived “failed breakdowns” that quickly reversed into rallies after the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 200-DMA. In both cases, the index reclaimed the level within a matter of days and went on to rally strongly in the weeks that followed.

A similar thing happened in October 2023, where the index stayed below the 200-day moving average level for a brief one-week dip before recovering and pushing higher.

In these instances, they were examples of failed breakdowns. The signal of dipping below the 200-day moving average initially looked bearish, but because there was not significant follow-through selling by investors, the momentary bearishness was muted and fueled an even stronger rebound.

On the other hand, there have also been cases where the S&P 500 fell below the 200-day moving average and experienced more sustained breaks.

Most recently, in March 2025, for example, the S&P 500 broke below its 200-DMA and suffered a sustained correction, where the index fell roughly 15% after dipping below the average before stabilizing.

Another recent example occurred in April 2022, which led to a correction of 20% and established a new bear market period. The market’s rollercoaster ride dropped lower in April 2022 as the S&P 500 declined by -8.7%, the worst monthly performance since March 2020. After reaching a year-to-date low on the last trading day of the month, the S&P 500 was then down by -12.9% for the year. The S&P 500 index remained stuck under the 200-day moving average for another six months until October 2022.

In these instances, they were examples of confirmed breakdowns, where the inability to reclaim the 200-day moving average quickly led to a clear shift in trend and a more prolonged period of weakness.

Key Takeaway

The break isn’t the signal—the reaction is

Seasonal Depression: March Is Historically Bad

According to the Carson Group, over the last 20 years, the S&P 500, on average, has bottomed for the year on March 12.

Now, it’s not always March 12, but on average, around March 12 is when the market seems to bottom out for the year. March 12 was less than two weeks ago, so according to the history of the past 20 years, the market should start to make its ascent higher over the last nine months of the year. The average annual return of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years (2006–2025) was 10.4% by year-end.

March frequently sees high volatility. The reason for this is due to sector rotations and earnings. It is a time when traders rebalance portfolios after the initial months of the year, potentially leading to sell-offs in high-performing stocks.

Over the last five years, markets have seen March slip to the third-worst month, contradicting its longer-term, stronger history. March sometimes faces high-profile, sharp declines (like in 1938 and 1939), which strengthens the narrative that it is a dangerous month, even when other months, such as September or October, are statistically worse on average.

How Are Other Assets Doing?

Most other assets have seen declines since the United States air strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, due to rising geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty, increased volatility, and rising oil prices.

Since the start of the war with Iran, global bonds have sold off too amid renewed inflation concerns.

As a result of higher inflation, central banks are becoming decidedly more hawkish, which means the “wait and see” Fed will likely hold for several months. Central banks around the world have also kept rates unchanged because they have upgraded their inflation outlook and downgraded growth forecasts, warning of increasing risks tied to the Middle East conflict.

Treasury yields around the world are at elevated levels due to the war. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at its highest level since July 2025. It broke back above 4.4% just this morning on Monday, March 23, 2026. It is currently trading at 4.433%.

The UK 10-year gilt yield is trading above 5.0%, which is the highest level since 2008. The German 10-year bund yield is trading above 3%. It has retreated a bit from an earlier peak of 3.08%, its highest since June 2011.

In every prior conflict-driven oil shock since 1973, gold and oil moved in the same direction. They are not doing that right now.

Gold, the most traditional of all the safe-haven assets, has just given up all its gains for the year after gold trimmed early losses Monday, March 23, 2026, trading 3% lower at $4,350 per ounce after President Trump postponed strikes on Iran for five days, claiming “productive conversations” with Tehran.

Despite the temporary reprieve, gold extended its decline for a ninth straight session, hitting its lowest level since early January as the Middle East conflict fueled inflation fears.

Last week, gold plunged over 10% amid soaring oil prices and central bank hawkishness, with markets now pricing in a Fed rate hike by year-end. Compounding the pressure, major economies may sell gold reserves to mitigate the war’s economic impact.

Gold experienced its biggest weekly drop in over 14 years last week when it fell over 10% in a single week. The drop is driven by a hawkish turn from major central banks concerned about inflation, which has caused gold to lose its appeal as a safe haven despite, or because of, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the conflict in Iran.

As of March 23, 2026, gold has experienced significant volatility and has not been acting like an inflation hedge, recently dropping to a fresh year-to-date (YTD) low near $4,350 per ounce, marking a sharp reversal after earlier record highs, with some spot market reports indicating a roughly -2.3% YTD decline while others reflected mixed performance due to intense, quick-moving market pressures.

Despite, this recent correction in March 2026, Gold has been on a monster run over the past three years, and I believe that momentum rally will continue once this conflict in the Middle East ends. In my opinion, Gold will reach $6,000 and even $7,000 per ounce in the coming years if central bank buying remains constant and the value of the U.S. Dollar continues to decline. Gold investors have benefited not just from Gold as a store of value but also the strong growth it has experienced over the last 3-4 years in particular.

Despite most other assets selling off, there have been some assets that have shown real strength during these past three weeks.

One asset class that has pleasantly surprised investors is Bitcoin, which has shown real strength during the Iranian conflict. The world’s top cryptocurrency is up 9.39% in the last month and has jumped more than 11% since the February 28 start of the war in Iran as of March 23, 2026.

Not surprisingly, the United States Oil Fund is up 78.46% YTD as of March 23, 2026, which is outpacing the increases in WTI crude and Brent crude themselves.

Energy is the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 so far in 2026 and is up 30% YTD as of March 23, 2026. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary and financials are both down over 10% YTD as of March 23, 2026.

The Near-Term Future Market Outlook

As of Sunday, March 22, 2026, the supposed two-week Iranian conflict is now in its twenty-third day. This longer-than-anticipated geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices soaring and, as a result, has caused inflation fears back home. This dynamic creates a difficult environment for equities, as it increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer, which is the exact opposite of what both the market and President Trump want.

U.S. citizens are already feeling the pinch at home from rising oil prices. Due to this Iranian conflict, the average U.S. gas price is now already $1.00 per gallon more expensive than it was just one month ago as of March 22, 2026, according to AAA. A month ago, the average U.S. gas price was $2.934 per gallon. As of March 22, 2026, the average U.S. gas price is now nearing $4.00 per gallon at $3.942.

Uptick in Volatility

We have also seen an uptick in volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” has been trending higher since December and is now up roughly 80% over that period, indicating that investor anxiety has been consistently building beneath the surface.

In December 2025, the VIX was significantly lower, ending the year at 14.95. During the month of December, the VIX reached a 52-week low of 13.38 on December 24, 2025.

Currently, as of March 22, 2026, the VIX is much higher, with its most recent market close at 26.78 (from March 20), which is 79.13% higher than the 2025 year-end VIX number. In the last trading session on Friday, March 20, 2026, the VIX increased 11.31% in a single trading session.

The current VIX levels reflect a sharp increase in market fear compared to the relatively stable “risk-on” environment seen at the end of 2025.

What to Watch For

Oil is the dominant near-term driver and thus, all eyes are on the price of oil. Oil prices have skyrocketed since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28, 2026, with Brent crude and WTI crude surging by over 36% and 39%, respectively. Brent crude settled at $112.19 on March 20, while WTI crude closed at $98.32.

Markets need oil prices lower. When oil prices are near $100 per barrel, often times that’s a signal that the stock market will trade lower until prices begin to come down.

Typically, steep increases in oil prices have paved the way for tighter financial conditions, clipping consumer purchasing power due to higher inflation.

When oil breaks above $100, it often triggers significant inflation, leading to central bank tightening and a correction in the broader market, even as energy stocks surge. In March 2026, energy stocks (such as in the XLE ETF) have outperformed the broader S&P 500, which has faced pressure.

If oil breaks $200 per barrel, this would likely cause a 15%–30% drop in global stock markets and a high risk of a global recession.

This is not that far-fetched because United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby announced in March 2026 that the carrier is planning for oil to potentially rise to $175 per barrel and remain high through 2027 due to the ongoing Iranian conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the last three weeks since the war with Iran has begun, we have seen that any time the price of oil has begun to decrease, stocks have instantly rallied.

The ideal oil price for a broad stock market rally is generally considered to be moderate—typically in the $60–$80 per barrel range—as it balances energy sector profitability with manageable inflationary pressures on consumers and companies. While energy stocks benefit from high prices, excessive spikes (where prices exceed $100 per barrel) increase stagflation risks (where growth stalls but prices rise), threatening a wider market crash.

Key Support Levels

The S&P 500 is testing critical technical support levels following a significant breakdown below its long-term trendline earlier this week.

• 6,490–6,512 (pivotal zone): This is the current “line in the sand” where the sell-off has recently halted.

  • It aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 advance and previous lows from October and November 2025.

• 6,473 (March low): This represents the most recent intraday low and is viewed as the next immediate floor if the 6,500 level fails.

If the current pivot zone is decisively broken, analysts are watching several deeper levels:

• 6,147–6,212: This is considered a “major support” area, aligning with the August 2025 swing low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

• 5,918: Represents the 50% retracement of the 52-week high/low range, often seen as a deep value zone during corrections.

Market Drivers

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices past $100 per barrel, creating significant downward pressure on most S&P 500 sectors, except for energy.

Mega-cap stocks—such as the stocks of the ten biggest companies, which account for nearly 39% of the index’s market value and nearly 31% of earnings, according to Goldman Sachs as of March 22, 2026—have underperformed. The “Magnificent 7” tech stocks have led the YTD decline, while high-dividend and low-volatility factors have shown more resilience.

Future Outlook

Analysts remain mixed but generally optimistic for the long term.

Though banks still see a path higher for stocks to close out the year, the near-term picture looks uncertain.

Wall Street 2026 Year-End Price Targets for the S&P 500

• Bank of America: 7,100

• Barclays: 7,400

• JPMorgan: 7,200 base case; 6,000 volatility case

• Wells Fargo Investment Institute: 7,500

• Goldman Sachs: 7,600 base case; 6,300 milder case; 5,400 severe oil-shock case

• Citigroup: 7,700

• Morgan Stanley: 7,800

• Deutsche Bank: 8,000

Source: Reuters

GremlinsAtPlay’s 2026 Year-End Price Targets for the S&P 500

• GremlinsAtPlay: 7,800 base case; 8,150 bull case

Source: GremlinsAtPlay

In January 2026, I released my 2026 market forecast and included the above year-end price targets in the article.

My price targets imply S&P 500 returns of 14% for my base case and 19% for my bull case by year-end 2026.

Here is what I wrote:

“My Overall Outlook for 2026

Despite these headwinds, I believe the bull market will extend into its fourth year. Over the last 50 years, only five bull markets have made it this far. Every one of them reached at least a fifth year. Historically, bull markets that make it to year four tend to persist for an average of eight years. Taking into account historical precedent, election dynamics, and liquidity trends, my base case projects a roughly 14% return for the S&P 500 in 2026, ending the year near 7,800. Under a more bullish scenario, I see upside closer to 19%, implying a year-end level around 8,150.”

Click here to read my full 2026 market forecast:

Closing Remarks

Oil is driving markets.

Key Takeaways

An end to the conflict would likely ease oil prices and support equities

A prolonged conflict keeps upward pressure on oil and downside risk for stocks.

Bull Case

If the S&P 500 quickly reclaims its 200-day moving average by the end of March, history suggests this could be another false breakdown and a precursor to a fresh rally.

Bear Case

However, if the index fails to get back above the average, the risk of a more sustained correction increases significantly.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds positions in securities mentioned in this article, including Goldman Sachs Group, Inc (GS) as of March 23, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

T-minus three months, give or take a week or two, until the highly anticipated potential SpaceX IPO in mid to late June. SpaceX’s IPO could likely end up being the largest IPO in history, with reports indicating a projected valuation between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion. Some speculative reports have suggested extremely high long-term valuations, though current private market estimates are significantly lower.

There have been market rumors suggesting potential engagement by SpaceX with major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and JPMorgan, for the IPO, but no final decisions have been made and no official IPO date has been set at this time.

What to Expect From SpaceX’s Potential IPO in June

Starlink offers the best solution for satellite-hosted home internet today, with almost 10,000 satellites launched into space courtesy of SpaceX. Elon Musk is laser-focused on Starlink and SpaceX being valued at $1.5 trillion, which is nearly 40 times the valuation currently assigned to AST SpaceMobile Inc by public markets.

SpaceX’s rumored upcoming IPO will likely cause two things for the market.

The first is SpaceX’s public debut could draw incremental capital and speculative flows, potentially pulling incremental capital from other market darlings (Magnificent 7 and other high-beta stocks) and then rotating that capital into the company of SpaceX itself. The IPO aims to raise significant capital (up to $50 billion) to support the “insane flight rate” of Starship and develop AI data centers in space.

Secondly, this increase is not only capital-focused but also attention-focused. More attention will be directed toward the space sector as a whole, which will likely cause other major players in space like $RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, and $LUNR to ride the wake from SpaceX’s momentum higher.

High-Profile IPOs Often Raise the Whole Sector

We have seen this phenomenon before with the IPOs of CoreWeave ($CRWV), Circle Internet Group ($CRCL), and, this month, Swarmer ($SWMR). All of their IPOs led to their corresponding sectors—AI infrastructure, crypto/fintech, and drone defense AI, respectively—each catching a leg higher after a high-profile IPO in their sector.

Some refer to this phenomenon as “a rising tide lifts all boats.”

As of now, I am personally not going to partake in investing in the SpaceX IPO because IPOs are extremely volatile. However, I will be allocating more capital into the space sector over the next three months in preparation for SpaceX’s official liftoff as a public company.

Where I Will Personally Be Allocating Capital

The SpaceX event is not the trade—the space infrastructure buildout is.

I will be increasing my holdings of $RKLB, $ASTS, and $PL in anticipation of this potential great space race melt-up that I believe will occur around the summer solstice and midsummer.

Why $RKLB, $ASTS, and $PL?

• $RKLB (launch + defense)

• $ASTS (connectivity)

• $PL (data layer)

$PL

Space SZN, as I am calling it, officially kicked off on Wednesday, March 19, 2026, with the record earnings beat from Planet Labs PBC, whose stock popped 22.0% to 26.1% in after-hours trading after it reported stellar earnings. This came after the stock had already gained 8.7% during regular trading on March 19.

The surge was driven by a strong Q4 revenue report of $86.8 million (41% year-over-year growth) and optimistic fiscal 2027 revenue guidance ($415 million–$440 million), which significantly exceeded analyst expectations. Not to mention, it has been a direct beneficiary of current geopolitical uncertainty and tensions. Planet Labs satellite imagery is now being used constantly in news reports and is quietly becoming a household name.

$PL is not the only company in the space sector to announce major contracts recently.

$RKLB

Rocket Lab USA Inc ($RKLB) has secured a record $190 million contract for 20 hypersonic test flights using its HASTE vehicle for the U.S. Department of Defense’s MACH-TB 2.0 program. This four-year deal, managed by Kratos Defense & Security Solutions ($KTOS), significantly boosts $RKLB’s backlog, though its announcement was paired with a $1 billion stock offering. This was the largest contract in Rocket Lab’s history, pushing its total contracted backlog beyond $2 billion.

$ASTS

Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile Inc ($ASTS) has recently secured significant deals and partnerships in early 2026, reinforcing its role as a direct-to-device satellite operator. Key developments include a $30 million U.S. Space Development Agency contract, a new partnership with Telus, and continued deployment of its BlueBird satellite constellation. The company also won a prime contract position on the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program.

$ASTS reported its first year of revenue driven by multiple U.S. government contracts, with a total contracted backlog of approximately $1.2 billion.

AST SpaceMobile has already secured major partnerships and commercial agreements with several leading global telecommunications providers, most notably AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone. These contracts focus on providing space-based direct-to-cellular broadband service to standard, unmodified smartphones, aiming to eliminate connectivity gaps by utilizing ASTS’s BlueBird satellite constellation to deliver 5G-quality voice, data, and video.

$ASTS stock has been heavily supported by institutional investors, including Alphabet Inc, which is also a prominent investor in $PL. Alphabet holds about a 10% stake in $PL as of Q1 2026.

Why? Because space is the last great frontier that humans have yet to conquer.

Alphabet’s Secret Portfolio

As of early 2026, Alphabet Inc. ($GOOGL), via GV/CapitalG, maintains significant stakes in AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) and Planet Labs ($PL), holding approximately 8.94 million shares ($903 million) and 31.94 million shares ($1.08 billion), respectively, representing two of its top public stock positions. These investments focus on satellite connectivity for Android and AI-powered geospatial data for Earth mapping.

• Why AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS)? Alphabet’s investment facilitates the development of a space-based cellular broadband network aiming to provide direct-to-smartphone connectivity, with plans for widespread service in the U.S. and other regions. The investment is seen as a strategic push to enhance global direct-to-satellite cellular coverage.

• Why Planet Labs ($PL)? Alphabet uses Planet’s fleet of over 200 satellites to support Google Earth and improve its AI models for environmental monitoring, agriculture, and defense.

These holdings are often referred to as “Alphabet’s Secret Portfolio,” “Hidden Portfolio,” or “Strategic Investment Holding.” They are commonly reported through 13F filings by Alphabet Inc. or Google LLC.

This photo showcases what’s inside “Alphabet’s Secret Portfolio” of publicly traded companies as of Q4 2025.

However, I know of a few companies offhand not on this list, including Cipher Mining Inc ($CIFR) and TeraWulf Inc ($WULF), which are publicly traded, as well as Anthropic and SpaceX itself among private companies.

Alphabet Inc.’s Additional Investments in Publicly Traded Companies

Google secured a 5.4% equity stake in Cipher Mining through warrants as part of a 10-year, $3 billion AI hosting agreement announced in September 2025.

Additionally, Google increased its stake in TeraWulf to approximately 14% (through warrants for approximately 73.5 million shares) by August 2025.

These investments are part of a broader strategy in which tech companies are utilizing Bitcoin miners’ existing energy infrastructure to support intensive AI data center demands.

Alphabet Inc.’s Investments in Private Companies

In terms of private companies, Alphabet Inc. holds significant stakes in both Anthropic and SpaceX, acting as a major investor in the fields of artificial intelligence and space infrastructure. As of early 2026, these stakes are valued at tens of billions of dollars, with the SpaceX holding, in particular, representing a potentially massive gain.

Google holds approximately 14% of the AI startup Anthropic, according to court documents and reports from 2025. The company has committed around $3 billion in cash to Anthropic.

Furthermore, Alphabet Inc. is extremely bullish on the space infrastructure sector. The company’s two largest investments in publicly traded companies are AST SpaceMobile Inc. and Planet Labs PBC. In addition to these investments, Google holds roughly 7% to 7.5% of SpaceX. This stake stems from a 2015 investment of approximately $900 million. Due to SpaceX’s exponential growth, Starlink’s expansion, and a reported merger with xAI, this stake is estimated to be worth over $100 billion as of early 2026, making it one of Google’s most successful investments.

Disclaimer: As both are private companies, precise, real-time equity percentages are not public, and valuations are based on recent funding rounds and analyst estimates.

$LUNR

Lastly, Intuitive Machines Inc ($LUNR) has recently secured several major contracts and acquisitions, primarily driven by its expanding role in NASA’s lunar infrastructure, defense-related space operations, and commercial satellite services.

These developments have shifted $LUNR from a primary focus on lunar landers into a broader space infrastructure provider, with an emphasis on supporting the Artemis campaign.

Potential Risks

Investing in space stocks like Rocket Lab ($RKLB), AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS), Planet Labs ($PL), and Intuitive Machines ($LUNR) involves significant risks due to the capital-intensive nature of the industry, high technical failure rates (execution risk), and long paths to profitability. As of early 2026, while the sector shows promise, analysts highlight high volatility, regulatory hurdles, and intense competition, particularly from SpaceX, as primary risks.

Furthermore, there are additional general industry risks.

The first is regulatory and environmental risk. Regulatory approvals for launches and frequencies are complex and can delay projects. These delays can affect stock prices.

The second is macroeconomic pressure. Rising interest rates and high inflation increase the cost of capital, disproportionately impacting unprofitable, growth-oriented space companies.

Disclaimer: Space stocks are speculative. The market is early-stage, and many companies may fail to become self-sustaining. It is imperative to take a long-term horizon on these stocks if you choose to invest in them. Only risk-tolerant investors should consider these stocks.

My Core Investment Thesis

Even without a confirmed IPO date for SpaceX, capital is rotating into space infrastructure, and increasing visibility, contract flow, and institutional backing could drive a speculative run across high-beta space equities. A potential future liquidity event for SpaceX could act as an accelerant—but the trade is already in motion.

Takeaway

2026 will be a crucial year for companies in the space sector, which used 2025 to deliver out-of-this-world returns for investors—pun intended. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, and Planet Labs stand out as three space companies that are well positioned to benefit from the industry pivot from government agencies toward publicly traded companies.

I am giving my Strong Buy rating on both Rocket Lab ($RKLB) and Planet Labs ($PL), my Buy rating on AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS), and my Hold rating on Intuitive Machines ($LUNR).

Closing Remarks

In closing, a small anecdotal signal of rising mainstream awareness happened just this morning when I saw my first Starlink commercial on television that featured the great bop by LCD Soundsystem, “Oh Baby.”

Prepare yourselves for blastoff. Your trip is short!

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds positions in securities mentioned, including Goldman Sachs Group, Inc (GS), Planet Labs PBC (PL), Rocket Lab USA Inc (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS), Intuitive Machines Inc (LUNR), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL), Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR) and TeraWulf Inc (WULF), as of March 22, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

Some interesting things are happening with Gold currently that you really should pay attention to.

As of March 19, 2026, Gold has experienced a significant decline, with a one-week return of approximately -12.03%. In my opinion, this is a classic example of a dip before the next rip higher. I would buy this dip in Gold.

Gold Sinks Below its 50-day Simple Moving Average for the First Time in Seven Months

Yesterday, on March 18, 2026, Gold dipped below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since August 2025. Its 50-day SMA was previously around $4,960–$4,976. Because market data fluctuates constantly during trading hours, the exact value of the moving average changes daily based on the closing prices of the preceding 50 trading days.

This break confirms a medium-term bearish shift after previously holding as support for months and is a technical shift that signals weakening short-term momentum, which is not good if you own Gold.

Today, on March 19, 2026, the spot Gold price is down even further. Currently, it is trading in the range of $4,600–$4,700 per ounce, following the break of the $4,900–$5,000 support levels.

The potential risk here is that if Gold fails to reclaim the $4,900–$5,000 level quickly, that previous “support” will turn into “resistance,” which could trap the price in the mid-$4,000s in the near term.

This recent decline in spot Gold prices is attributed to a less dovish Federal Reserve and rising U.S. Treasury yields.

Gold is Oversold

Don’t panic yet, Gold Bugs! Have no fear, because Gold just hit Oversold status yesterday as well for the third time since November 2025.

Over the past year, Gold has entered Oversold territory seven times based on the Williams %R technical indicator, with each instance followed by a rebound within roughly two weeks. While past performance does not guarantee future results, this pattern suggests a tendency for mean reversion at these levels.

The longest that Gold has stayed in Oversold territory over the last year before climbing higher again was about two weeks. If Gold historically bounces within two weeks of hitting these levels, the current dip into the $4,600 range might indeed be a “buy the blood” opportunity rather than a total collapse.

Gold has been on a Parabolic Run the Last Few Years

Over the last three years, Gold has experienced massive gains, with a 140% momentum rally, with prices moving from lows near $1,818.00 to a new all-time high of $5,589.38 per ounce on January 28, 2026. During this same timespan, Gold has significantly Outperformed the S&P 500 from 2024–2026, with one report suggesting it Outperformed the index by over 100% on a cumulative basis, says Wealth Management. This justifies why a correction (like the one we’re seeing now) is not only healthy but expected after a 140% vertical move.

This recent precious metals bull run was largely fueled by significant central bank purchases, high inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and economic volatility.

In recent years, Gold has proven to be a strong performer in the investment world, offering stability, diversification, and protection against economic uncertainty. Additionally, it is a great hedge to shield yourself and your portfolio from market volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, rising inflation, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar.

Outlook for Gold in 2026

While the overall trend has been upward over the last couple of years, early 2026 saw extreme volatility, including sharp corrections from record highs above $5,500.

Additionally, it’s important to note that medium-term fundamentals have changed a bit, with the U.S. dollar showing strength and expectations of future Fed rate cuts coming, hopefully sooner rather than later, with a new Fed chair coming in June, so this time could be different. We shall see.

Markets hate uncertainty. With the implementation of a new Fed chair in June 2026, a transition such as this usually brings volatility as investors try to guess if the new chair will be a “hawk” (bad for Gold) or a “dove” (good for Gold).

How does the Conflict with Iran Affect the Price of Gold?

Higher oil prices are generally supportive of Gold because they fuel inflation and increase geopolitical uncertainty—two key drivers of Gold demand. However, if rising oil leads to higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, it can cap Gold’s upside.

Closing Remarks

Despite the weekly slump, Gold remains a strong long-term performer, up nearly 50% to 53% over the past year. The current drop in Gold has just been a correction in a secular bull market, not a change in the long-term story of the precious metal.

This proves that the long-term fundamentals haven’t changed, and my original investment thesis on Gold remains intact. That’s why I remain Long Gold and why I firmly believe it will reach the key psychological levels of $6,000 and then $7,000 at some point within the next 12–24 months.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds positions in securities mentioned, including Gold Mining Companies Newmont Corporation (NEM) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (AU), as of March 19, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

The biggest oil spike in history just happened. Did you catch it, or were you asleep at the wheel?

It’s true. Yesterday, March 9, 2026, was a day for the record books… literally. Crude oil futures recorded the largest single-day increase in their history.

In early trading on Monday, March 9, 2026, during Asian trading hours, which was around 3 a.m. EST, oil futures soared by as much as 30%, with WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude nearly hitting $120 a barrel at $119.48. This spike brought prices to their highest level since June 2022.

What Caused This Massive Surge in Oil Prices?

The massive surge in oil prices was driven by an escalating conflict between the united front of the U.S. and Israel versus Iran, which has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This is significant because each day anywhere between 20% to as much as 40% of the world’s global oil supply travels through this narrow waterway, threatening a significant portion of global oil supplies. This caused extreme market panic on Monday, with the VIX briefly crossing above 35, which was its highest level since April 2025.

This market pressure over the last week and a half due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East was exacerbated by options positioning when traders began rushing to hedge risk. The surge was characterized as a “short squeeze” or “gamma squeeze” as dealers were forced to hedge against rapid price increases in call options, compounding the rally. It is important to note that this showcases that price moves are not always purely fundamental.

Events That Led to the Cooling of This Historic Oil Rally

After the initial panic, prices started to fade earlier in the day yesterday when the energy ministers from the Group of Seven nations announced that they will hold a virtual meeting Tuesday morning on March 10, 2026, to discuss a potential release of oil reserves, according to CNBC. The U.S. believes a joint release of 300 million to 400 million barrels would be appropriate, the sources said.

This follows growing shut-ins in the Gulf region, with Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) all curbing oil output and ceasing oil production until tensions cool off a bit.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unique because they each have special access to pipelines that allow oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Loadings at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates are at a record high pace, but this does not cover all the output. Meaning if the Strait of Hormuz remains impassable, we are going to see more shut-ins, according to Pippa Stevens, reporter for CNBC Business News.

Alternative Oil Routes Besides the Strait of Hormuz

There are two main alternative oil routes besides the Strait of Hormuz. These two main alternative oil routes include the Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline), capable of moving up to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) to the Red Sea, and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), which can transport 1.5–2 million bpd to the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman.

• Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline): Extends from Abqaiq near the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu across north-central Saudi Arabia from east to west. It allows crude to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint, serving as a critical, albeit partial, alternative for global oil shipments.

• Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP): A 406 km pipeline connecting Habshan in Abu Dhabi to the Fujairah oil export terminal. It stretches west to east in the northwestern part of the United Arab Emirates. This route bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, providing direct access to the Gulf of Oman.

However, these two pipelines cannot fully replace the ~20 million barrels per day that flow through the Strait of Hormuz every day. These nearly 20 million barrels per day collectively make up about 20% of the world’s global oil supply on a daily basis.

A ninth-inning comeback for the ages

Stocks staged a stunning reversal and finished in the green after paring major early losses on Monday as oil prices underwent a massive reversal in the last hour of the trading day as President Trump told CBS News that the war could be over soon. He went on to say that he’s also thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz. This news caused oil prices to fall swiftly back below $87 per barrel and lose all of their gains after nearly hitting $120 per barrel, as this news spurred headlines suggesting potential diplomatic de-escalation.

President Trump told CBS News that the Iran war was “complete, pretty much.” We’ll just have to wait and see if all of that does actually come to fruition in the coming days and weeks ahead.

Temporary Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged by roughly 90% as of early March 2026, following the heightened U.S./Israel–Iran conflict, according to data from Kpler. The vital, 21-mile-wide energy chokepoint is experiencing a de facto closure without a formal blockade. Major insurers are withdrawing coverage, despite some vessels still attempting to pass, often with trackers turned off.

While President Trump says that the Iran war could be over very soon, there will likely still be ripple effects in the energy market for several weeks to come. Kpler stated that even with oil flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, it will likely take another week or two to reposition tankers and load crude from storage. Meaning we could see a premium for WTI crude, which we did see trade above Brent crude at one point during overnight trading on Monday. WTI rarely trades above Brent except during periods of high U.S. supply, low international demand, or specific logistical constraints that reduce export efficiency.

Historical Significance

All of these events led to the largest weekly gain in oil futures since records began in 1983. WTI crude was up over 40% in the last week alone. For those of us stateside, that meant gas at the pump surged more than $0.50 per gallon in just the past week, which could ignite inflation concerns as oil tops $100 a barrel.

Trump says this is a “small price to pay” for defeating Iran. Meanwhile, the U.S. has spent the last four years above the Federal Reserve’s own 3% inflation target, Fed funds rates remain high, credit card debt in the country has reached all-time highs, we currently have a K-shaped economy, the U.S. labor market has stalled with many companies laying off thousands of employees nearly every day for the past several months, and perhaps the worst of all, there are legit fears that artificial intelligence could potentially disrupt every single job within the next 5–10 years, perhaps even the next 3–5 years… or less. Or less!

How Higher Oil Prices Effect the U.S. Economy

Oil prices are soaring. But what does that really mean for the U.S. economy?

A recent Goldman Sachs report shows that the impact hinges on Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

If markets believe the spike is temporary, history suggests the shock won’t last long.

But a $10 increase per barrel could trim U.S. growth by roughly 0.1 percentage points this year, just enough to matter.

Higher oil costs hit household budgets, squeezing spending and slowing the economy.

Stay alert, geopolitics and supply disruptions could have bigger ripple effects than you think.

How to Make Money in This Kind of Turbulent Market Environment?

This is why investing is so extremely important right now. For those of us with the foresight, market knowledge, and temperament to know that this too shall pass, it was a golden opportunity to buy shares of stock in high-quality companies with strong, profitable, and consistent businesses that have been beaten down since the air strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026.

Those investors who capitalized on this temporary sell-off and bought the dip have already benefited from that smart decision to buy into the market volatility as opposed to running away from it. It just adds further proof that really any sell-off, drawdown, or correction in this market is a buying signal in my personal opinion and will most likely reward you handsomely if an investor buys and holds the stock with a long-term time horizon. It can lead to some great entry points on initial equity positions as well as provide stellar opportunities to lower your cost basis on positions you already own and would like to increase your weight in. Two birds, one stone.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that short-term volatility can persist. However, when an investor transitions from a tourist trader into a real long term investor, you not only minimize the short-term volatility while also simultaneously increasing your chances of achieving compounded annual returns by buying and holding an asset to really maximize your earnings potential on the asset.

My Core Investment Thesis

Geopolitical shocks create temporary volatility that long-term investors can exploit and use to their advantage.

This is historically supported by several events.

Examples include:

• Gulf War

• 9/11

• Iraq War

• Crimea invasion

• COVID crash

• Ukraine war

These are appropriate examples of panic-driven volatility followed by recovery.

Markets usually recover faster than headlines suggest.

Closing Remarks

So, please remember this the next time that sentiment weakens and volatility increases. Tune out the temporary noise and chatter when the talking heads are saying that the sky is falling.

While I admit that it does not feel good when you look at your portfolio during these times and see a sea of red, remember that they are just numbers on a screen at the end of the day. Take some deep breaths, go for a walk around the neighborhood, spend quality time with your family and friends or heck, go touch grass. Whatever helps to clear your mind and manages your stress levels.

As long as your core investment thesis for why you bought the stock in the first place hasn’t changed, then just simply remain calm and try not to get thrown off the ride on the great market volatility roller coaster. While novice investors and fickle day traders panic sell and the market shakes some apples off the tree, swim against the tide and reprogram your brain to buy the red days or even the red hours, honestly. The absolute worst thing that you can do is panic sell because that finalizes the loss and makes it permanent. If you do not panic sell and remain calm, that loss is just a paper loss and can be made back.

Investors typically lose when they incorporate these three things into their investment strategy:

• Fear

• Volatility

• Panic selling

These are core pitfalls that poison Investor Psychology.

Investors typically win when they incorporate these three things into their investment strategy:

• Emotional discipline

• Long-term thinking

• Avoiding panic selling

These are core principles of successful investing.

As we have seen time and time again over the past 3–4 years especially, there is a high probability that you will be extremely happy that you took advantage of these dip opportunities and bought shares of stock in the great “best of breed” companies that temporarily traded at healthy discounts for a brief moment in time and pat yourself on the back for actually following through on your investment plan at a time when there’s literally blood in the streets. As always, do your own research.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds long positions in several securities as of March 10, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

Yesterday, on Saturday, February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, in which the two allies carried out coordinated military strikes throughout Iran, hitting the country’s capital city of Tehran, as well as 500 military targets and other nuclear sites throughout Iran, especially many of them located in central and western Iran. This joint attack is being dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.”

What Is “Operation Epic Fury”?

“Operation Epic Fury” was announced as a joint U.S.-Israeli operation targeting Iran, specifically aiming to weaken its security and strategic targets. The situation is described as causing short-term volatility in the markets.

As of the time of writing this article, “Operation Epic Fury” is well underway and is expected to last the next two to three weeks. The United States government has vehemently expressed that the sole purpose of this mission is of short-term focus to force swift and strategic regime change and is not a longer-term mission to support a nation-building effort. President Trump has directed a message to the Iranian people to remain indoors until the strikes end and then, after the strikes have ceased, to go out quickly and claim their country because it may be their only opportunity to do so for several generations to come. It is of utmost importance, according to the administration, that they band together to take back their country from supposed “evil forces.”

The attacks on Iran occurred on Saturday, February 28, 2026, around 12 p.m. local time in Tehran, Iran, during Ramadan, a holy period in the Muslim world. It was a rare daylight attack, hoping to “decapitate the Iranian leadership,” which was meeting in three different locations at the time of the initial attack.

It is also interesting to note that last night was a full moon and, coincidentally, “Operation Midnight Hammer” also occurred during a full moon back in June 2025, when the U.S. fired missiles at strategic underground Iranian nuclear facilities, supposedly carrying out catastrophic losses to their nuclear ambitions.

President Trump’s Ultimatum to Iran

On February 20, 2026, President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum that the two countries would either come to a deal centering on Iran ceasing and suspending its nuclear program indefinitely, or else “bad things” were going to happen to Iran if no deal was made. President Trump gave Iran a deadline of 10 to 15 days to make a deal with the United States or suffer the consequences of its indecision.

Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said that they were close to reaching a deal with the United States. U.S. officials, on the other hand, did not see it that way. The last round of talks between the two countries occurred on Thursday, February 26, 2026, in Geneva, Switzerland, but those negotiations were unsuccessful and a deal was not reached.

Yesterday’s attack on Iran occurred on the ninth day of President Trump’s 10-day deadline period. The United States government has claimed that Iran was one day away from developing a nuclear weapon capable of potentially hitting long-range targets in Israel and possibly even the United States. This, however, seems contradictory to the president’s claim back in June 2025 during “Operation Midnight Hammer,” when, in his words, the U.S. military “obliterated” several key Iranian nuclear sites. If these Iranian nuclear sites were truly “obliterated” back in June 2025, it is difficult to reconcile how only eight months later Iran would be one day away from having the nuclear capabilities to launch long-range missiles at Israel and possibly even the United States.

In reality, Iran lost a significant portion of its nuclear weapons supply last summer in “Operation Midnight Hammer.” However, despite this fact, Iran still had an additional stockpile of 2,000 short-range missiles and 2,000 long-range missiles, according to reports. If Iran had been given another year, it would have added an additional 1,000 missiles on top of its current reserves of around 4,000 missiles of all ranges. This is why the United States and Israel had to act fast and act accordingly.

U.S. & Iran Escalation Since “Operation Midnight Hammer”

June 2025

• “Operation Midnight Hammer” strikes several key Iranian nuclear sites.

July 2025

• Iran suspends cooperation with the United Nations (UN) nuclear watchdog organization.

September 2025

• The UN reimposes snapback sanctions against Iran.

December 2025

• Total economic collapse occurs in Iran, which sparks nationwide protests throughout the country. The Iranian rial, the country’s national currency, collapses to near zero. The value of Bitcoin inside Iran surges.

• Iranians own a significant amount of Bitcoin. It is reported that Iran makes up as much as 5% of Bitcoin’s total global hash rate. It is also being reported that, in a country with rampant rolling electricity blackouts but significant access to almost endless amounts of cheap energy sources, a new Bitcoin can be produced for just under $1,300. In comparison, the cost to produce a new Bitcoin elsewhere in the world is around $60,000.

January 8–9, 2026

• A deadly protest crackdown is reported inside Iran. According to reports, sources inside Iran claim that thousands were killed and that there were even public hangings in the streets of Tehran.

• The Iranian government shut down the internet inside Iran to try to squash and mute the protests. However, Elon Musk was reportedly able to provide internet access inside the country by covertly importing Starlink terminals into Iran over several weeks. The purpose of this was twofold: not only so that (1) Iranian protesters could communicate and organize protests accordingly, but also so that (2) U.S. government officials could coordinate with them and observe outcomes in real time from the ground that U.S. intelligence needed to see to facilitate successful regime change.

• These protests were a continuation of nationwide unrest stemming from the total economic collapse that occurred in December 2025, when the value of the Iranian rial became essentially worthless and hyperinflation began to run rampant inside the country.

• President Trump threatens the Iranian leadership, stating that if the public hangings do not stop, he would have no choice but to intervene and would be forced to attack Iran.

Late January 2026

• Major U.S. naval buildup in the region. The United States military begins to strategically deploy and position key military infrastructure and personnel throughout the region in preparation for a potential attack on Iran.

February 2026

• Direct clashes at sea in the Strait of Hormuz between the United States and Iran. Nuclear talks resume during this period between the two countries.

Yesterday, February 28, 2026

• The U.S. announces major military operations in Iran dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.”

• The Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and 39 other top Iranian officials were reportedly killed in strikes by Israel, according to a senior U.S. official. This has been confirmed by a senior Israeli security official.

• Iran responds by attacking U.S. and Israeli interests in the region, including in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and other Gulf nations.

No Formal Declaration of War Against Iran Yet

As of February 28, 2026, the United States has not formally declared war on Iran through Congress. However, reports indicate that President Trump launched major military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, without congressional authorization, prompting immediate and intense debate over the legality of this action.

While Article I of the Constitution grants Congress the power to declare war, the president initiated these strikes without such approval. Only Congress has the power to declare war, yet these actions were taken unilaterally by the president.

Some congressional lawmakers have criticized the action as “illegal” and a “flagrant abuse of power” because it lacks formal authorization by Congress, according to reports from The Guardian and Northeastern Global News. Lawmakers are demanding swift votes on war powers resolutions to block further unauthorized or “illegal” actions by the administration.

Death of the Iranian Supreme Leader and 39 Other Top Iranian Officials

During the initial strikes on February 28, 2026, the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and 39 other top Iranian officials were reportedly killed in strikes by Israel, according to a senior U.S. official. This has been confirmed by a senior Israeli security official.

Fox News learned from a senior Israeli security official: “Israel assesses that more than 40 senior security and regime figures were killed during the opening operation that Israel launched this morning with the United States against the Iranian regime. This is one of the largest regime decapitation operations conducted in modern warfare history, and Israeli intelligence managed to infiltrate the Iranian security echelon, making the strikes possible.”

According to Brent Sadler, retired U.S. Navy captain and senior research fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology at the Heritage Foundation, here is what is important now that the supreme leader has been killed. He states: “Yeah. Forty-seven years later with this Islamic radical regime, by the 47th president putting the nail in the coffin. We’ll see in the coming days how effective that strike was and how deeply effective the decapitation was. One of the things to watch right now is how chaotic the missile launches are. Is there effective command and control? Little indications like this that you can see. And the other thing, of course, is watching the streets to see if the Iranian people start pouring out and start challenging directly the authority of this regime as it accelerates toward its own demise.”

Yesterday, despite numerous reports and confirmations outside Iran stating that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had died, there was no formal announcement or confirmation of his death by Iranian officials. This may have been, in part, because the top 40 Iranian officials, including the supreme leader, had all been killed in the strikes, which essentially represented the top two tiers of Iranian leadership.

Iranian state media has since confirmed the death of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Retaliation by Iran

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has vowed that the U.S. will “pay” for its attacks on Iran and has called on his counterparts in the region, referring to them as the “Muslim nations of the world,” to support Iran in attacking the United States and Israel.

According to various reports, Iran has responded by attacking U.S. and Israeli interests in the region, including Saudi Arabian oil fields; Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates; the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain; Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar; Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait; Iraq; and other Gulf nations. These developments follow a rise in tensions, including the U.S. withdrawal from previous nuclear agreements.

However, despite the Iranian foreign minister’s plea to the “Muslim nations of the world,” Saudi Arabia has voiced support for the United States regarding its strikes on Iran. According to a statement from the Saudi Arabia Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 28, 2026: “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia condemns and denounces in the strongest terms the brutal Iranian aggression and blatant violation of the sovereignty of the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the State of Qatar, the State of Kuwait, and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, in addition to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

European nations are also commenting by showing support for the United States and Israel. The prime minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, stated: “The United Kingdom played no role in these strikes, but we have long been clear: the regime in Iran is utterly abhorrent. They have murdered thousands of their own people, brutally crushed dissent, and sought to destabilize the region.”

According to a Reuters exclusive report, prior to the Iran attacks, in the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli strikes, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the operation, he could be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to two sources briefed on the intelligence.

Following the death of Iran’s top 40 officials, as well as the top commander of the IRGC, no one is exactly sure who will take official control of the top leadership position in the country. It will be interesting to see over the next few days and weeks who ultimately seizes power.

What to Expect in the Markets in the Short Term

During times of war and heightened geopolitical tensions, there tends to be a sharp increase in market volatility. The reason is that markets price uncertainty, not headlines. However, it is important to note that while these geopolitical conflicts create initial volatility, history shows that financial markets typically recover faster than many expect. Overall, financial markets are resilient.

According to Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG: “The key lies in understanding that markets fear uncertainty more than conflict itself.

Once the direction of a war becomes clearer, capital flows return to normal patterns. Smart traders recognize this dynamic and position themselves accordingly.

“During the 2003 Iraq invasion, markets initially fell but then rallied over 30% within twelve months. Similarly, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, initial panic selling gave way to strategic repositioning as traders identified which sectors would benefit.

“This pattern repeats because markets operate on probabilities and profit margins, not moral judgments. Understanding this fundamental principle helps traders navigate volatile periods more effectively.”

The Three Areas of the Market That Should Benefit From This Geopolitical Conflict With Iran

There are three areas of the market that should benefit greatly from this attack on Iran: defense, energy, and precious metals, particularly gold.

Defense Stocks

During times of great political conflict and war, governments around the world tend to prioritize increased spending. This increased spending flows directly to defense contractors, weapons manufacturers, and military technology companies.

“Historical evidence shows that wars often accelerate technological development. From radar during World War II to modern cybersecurity and drone technology, conflicts drive innovation that later benefits civilian markets,” says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.

Two defense stocks that I like here are not your father’s defense stocks. These two companies are at the forefront of modern warfare and are more defense-tech leaning. These two defense stocks are Ondas Inc. (ONDS) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR).

As of Sunday, March 1, 2026, ONDS is currently trading at $9.97, while PLTR is currently trading at $136.90.

Energy Stocks

Geopolitical conflicts also disrupt the energy markets because supply chains face pressure, nations prioritize energy security, and strategic reserves become crucial. Oil, gas, and renewable energy companies often experience increased demand and wider profit margins.

What could this conflict in Iran mean for gas prices in the United States? Analysts say that oil prices are likely to rise when markets reopen on Monday, and depending on how this conflict escalates, crude could jump as much as $15 to $20 per barrel from its current price of $70.42 per barrel as of March 1, 2026. For every $1 move in oil per barrel, that translates to about $0.02 to $0.03 per gallon. That translates to an increase of approximately $0.30 to $0.60 per gallon.

Iran accounts for about 3% to 4% of global oil production, but the real risk is broader regional disruption, especially if there are issues around the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes every day.

Precious Metals

Commodities trading becomes particularly active during wartime as countries stockpile strategic materials. Precious metals see price volatility that creates trading opportunities.

Gold often rallies during periods of uncertainty and military conflict. Additionally, gold can provide stability to a portfolio during times of political unrest and war because while other sectors and industries may decline, gold often shows relative strength and can help minimize losses in other areas. For these reasons, I have always been a strong advocate for gold ownership in investors’ portfolios.

Currently, gold stocks make up 14% of my total portfolio value. The two gold miners that I favor most are Newmont Corporation (NEM) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU).

As of Sunday, March 1, 2026, NEM is currently trading at $130.19, while AU is currently trading at $127.99.

Closing Remarks

Yesterday, February 28, 2026, was a day that will be remembered for two world powers coming together to topple an “evil tyrant” and end a “47-year reign of terror.” In the coming weeks, months, and years, we will see whether all of this was truly worth it in a geopolitical sense, but at least you now understand how one might attempt to capitalize on the market dynamics resulting from this conflict.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds positions in securities mentioned, including Ondas Inc (ONDS), Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR), Newmont Corporation (NEM) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (AU), as of March 1, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

The History of SanDisk

SanDisk has had an interesting history. When the company was originally founded on June 1, 1988, it was named SunDisk. However, on November 8, 1995, SunDisk changed its name to SanDisk to avoid confusion with Sun Microsystems and went public under the new name via an initial public offering, marking the company’s first tenure on the NASDAQ under the stock ticker SNDK. On its first day of trading as a publicly traded company, 16 million SNDK shares were sold at a price of $10.00 per share.

Western Digital announced its intent to acquire SanDisk on October 21, 2015. The deal was valued at approximately $19 billion ($86.50 per share) at the time of the announcement. It was intended to expand Western Digital’s presence in the flash memory market, complementing its existing hard disk drive business. The acquisition was completed on May 12, 2016. However, the valuation was lowered to $16 billion after Chinese company Unisplendour pulled out of an agreement to acquire a 15% stake in Western Digital.

In October 2023, Western Digital announced its intent to spin off its flash storage businesses as a new public company under the SanDisk name, leaving Western Digital focused solely on hard drives. In addition to SanDisk-branded products, the spin-off would also include all flash storage products that were marketed under the WD branding. The company began preparations for the split in October 2024, when all product listings and information for WD-branded flash storage products were moved under the SanDisk website.

Then, in December 2024, SanDisk unveiled a new pixel-inspired logo, which replaced a design that had been used since 1995, changing its stylization to “Sandisk.”

SNDK stock began trading independently on February 13, 2025, but the actual formal separation of the two companies had not yet been completed at that time.

On February 24, 2025, Western Digital spun off its flash memory business as Sandisk Corporation, leaving Western Digital solely focused on hard disk drives. Sandisk began selling flash storage product lines that were previously sold under the WD brand for the first time after the separation of the two companies.

On this date, Sandisk Corporation was relisted on the NASDAQ for the first time since its 2016 acquisition by Western Digital and began trading again as a publicly traded company. Some things are just meant to be, and SanDisk, or Sandisk—whichever way you prefer to spell it—was able to restore the same ticker symbol, SNDK, that the company had from its 1995 IPO until its 2016 acquisition by Western Digital. Personally, I still prefer to spell the company as SanDisk. Maybe it’s because I appreciate tradition and am somewhat resistant to name changes by brands, but I just think the original spelling looks cleaner and more correct.

Following the company’s separation from Western Digital in February 2025, David Goeckeler transitioned from his role as CEO of Western Digital to lead Sandisk as an independent, publicly traded company. Under his leadership, Sandisk has focused on leveraging AI-driven demand for flash memory and NAND technology.

Western Digital announced in early February 2026 that it planned to sell off its remaining 7.5 million shares of SNDK prior to the upcoming one-year anniversary of the SanDisk spin-off on February 24, 2026. The company announced a $4 billion stock buyback on February 3, 2026.

The sale was announced on February 17–18, 2026, as a secondary public offering and was priced at $545.00 per share, valuing the transaction at approximately $3.17 billion. The $545.00 offer price represented a discount of approximately 7.7% to 9.4% compared to the stock’s previous closing price of $590.59.

On February 19, 2026, former parent company Western Digital completed a secondary offering to sell 5,821,135 shares of SanDisk (SNDK) common stock as part of its ongoing divestiture at a share price of $545.00, which was an 8% discount to the market price at the time. As of February 23, 2026, Western Digital still owns around 1.7 million shares, valued at approximately a $1 billion equity stake in Sandisk, and plans to sell all of its remaining shares in the near future. The move was part of Western Digital’s strategy to deleverage its balance sheet and transition into a “pure-play” hard disk drive (HDD) company after its initial spin-off of SanDisk in February 2025.

The Spinoff Slingshot

Since its separation from Western Digital exactly one year ago today on February 24, 2025, SNDK stock has risen 1,340.19%. On February 24, 2025, SNDK was trading at $48.60, and as of February 23, 2026, it is trading at $674.01.

Over the last 52 weeks, the range for SNDK shares is $27.89–$725.00, which is simply remarkable. The growth surge is primarily attributed to unprecedented demand for NAND flash storage used in AI data center infrastructure. Currently, the company has a market cap of approximately $98.37 billion.

Following its relisting on the NASDAQ as SNDK on February 24, 2025, Sandisk has performed strongly, driven by high demand for AI data center storage. Despite SNDK’s monumental rally in 2025, during which the stock was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 with an annual return of about 559%, and its continued strength into early 2026, with SNDK already up 172.76% year to date, I remain extremely bullish on SanDisk’s future. I anticipate that the memory name will continue to be a primary beneficiary of the ongoing memory shortage, which is currently the biggest bottleneck in the AI supply chain. This memory shortage may last through at least 2027 and potentially into the first half of 2028, when additional capacity is expected to come online.

The short-term marginal selling pressure the stock faced during the first three weeks of February 2026, due to its former parent company Western Digital unloading over 5.8 million shares onto the market, has finally subsided. I think SNDK handled that volatility extremely well. Even with this immense selling pressure, SNDK shares over the past month have risen 32.39% as of February 24, 2026.

The upward momentum trend is firmly bullish, with SNDK currently trading at $674.01, which is 62.59% above its 50-day moving average of $414.54. Trading 62.59% above its 50-day moving average signals extreme bullish momentum but also suggests the stock is technically overextended and at risk of a short-term pullback.

Additionally, SNDK is trading 383.40% above its 200-day moving average of $175.80. A share price more than 383.40% above its 200-day moving average is considered statistically rare, described in recent analytics as an “8-sigma” event. While usually bullish, this distance suggests the stock is significantly extended and at risk of a severe pullback or reversal, even though such moves can last longer than expected in AI-driven markets. Such a divergence typically indicates strong fundamental catalysts—specifically, in this scenario, high demand for AI and data center storage, leading to a 1,500% surge at its peak in the stock price over the past year.

I’m not the only one who is bullish on the stock. Analysts are largely bullish, with many having price targets of $850–$1,000, which is about 26%–48% higher than its current price of $674.01 as of February 24, 2026.

So, happy birthday, SanDisk! Stolat!

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The views expressed in this publication are solely the author’s opinions and are provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with a qualified financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. No fiduciary relationship is created by this publication.

The author holds positions in securities mentioned, including SanDisk (SNDK), which is the largest equity holding in the author’s portfolio as of February 24, 2026. The author may buy, sell, or adjust positions at any time without notice. The author is not receiving compensation from any company mentioned in this article.

Bitcoin is a screaming buy right now, in my opinion. $60,000 is the new $20,000 for those who missed the recent meteoric melt-up in Bitcoin over the last few years, which started on December 31, 2022, when Bitcoin was trading at a cycle low of $16,529.20 and reached its current all-time high of $126,210.50 on October 6, 2025. Bitcoin is extremely oversold by several technical indicators at its current level of $64,721.00 as of February 22, 2026, at the time of this writing.

I believe Bitcoin has bottomed around $60,000, when it reached its recent low of $60,008.52 on February 6, 2026. The $60,000–$61,000 zone aligns with the February 6 intraday low and the 200-week moving average.

Why Do I Think Bitcoin Has Bottomed Near $60K?

The reason I feel Bitcoin has bottomed around this level is because the cash production cost for a new Bitcoin is right around $60,000. When the price of Bitcoin falls below that cash production cost for a new Bitcoin, smaller and weaker Bitcoin miners go out of business, which temporarily increases marginal selling pressure on the asset.

This has caused the deeper decline of the past few weeks, as these smaller, weaker miners were forced to sell their Bitcoin holdings to pay their bills and close their operations. This increase in temporary marginal selling pressure has now subsided, and a new bottom is forming near $60,000.

According to Bill Miller IV, CIO & Chairman of Miller Value Partners:

“The second reason is Bitcoin trades on global liquidity. If you look at when it peaked in the fall, it just so happened to be the exact same time that the Fed noticed huge stresses in short-term funding markets that effectively created an entire 180 on monetary policy.

If you look at what the Fed was doing in the fall, they were allowing $50 billion a month to go off their balance sheet — just drain away. Now, what happened in December? They did a complete 180 on that. What they’re doing is buying $40 billion net a month.

So, you’ve seen the net swing in liquidity from the world’s largest liquidity provider to the tune of $90 billion a month. So, you have this huge floor of liquidity that just came in. You’ve got the cash production cost there, and there’s another technical element here. If you look at historical bottoms in Bitcoin, they’ve often happened when the percent of the supply in loss exceeds the percent of the supply in profit, and $60,000 is right around where that happens. So, you have a whole bunch of factors converging at around $60.”

What Is a Potential Catalyst to Watch for That May Signal a Return to Bullish Momentum?

Historically, when the MACD crosses over on the weekly chart, this signals a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. When this occurs, Bitcoin will begin its run higher again to new all-time highs exceeding its current all-time high of $126,210.50. This time around, it will likely pass the key psychological levels of $150K and even $200K, in my opinion.

While the MACD histogram has begun narrowing recently as of February 22, 2026 — suggesting that bearish momentum may be losing its peak intensity — it remains negative for now. For a bullish crossover to occur, Bitcoin would need to see a significant and sustained increase in buying volume to push the histogram above the zero line. Bitcoin bulls see key resistance in the $70,000–$73,000 range, and breaking through that range could spark a further bullish momentum rally.

What Are Some Examples That Support This Reasoning From the Past?

In 2022, the Bitcoin weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) saw a significant bullish crossover during the week of August 8, 2022, when it was trading between $24,000–$25,000. This was the first bullish weekly MACD cross after months of bearish momentum following the market peak in late 2021. Momentum began building throughout August as the distance between the 12-period and 26-period moving averages widened.

This catalyst caused Bitcoin to run from $24,000–$25,000 on August 8, 2022, all the way up to $126,210.50 on October 6, 2025.

Less than a week later, the massive liquidation events that occurred between October 10–12, 2025, wiped approximately $200 billion to $380 billion from Bitcoin’s market capitalization as its price plummeted from roughly $122,000 to a low near $101,000–$105,000. Across the broader cryptocurrency market, the total value erased was estimated between $350 billion and $660 billion, as the global crypto market capitalization fell from approximately $4.3 trillion to between $3.74 and $3.87 trillion during the peak of the crash.

This massive forced liquidation event, often referred to as the “10/10 Crash” or the “October Reckoning,” was triggered by a geopolitical “black swan” — an announcement by former President Trump regarding 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. This sparked a violent deleveraging cycle, with 85% of liquidations coming from long positions by Bitcoin speculators trading on extreme leverage and margin. Over $19.3 billion to $19.5 billion in leveraged positions were forcibly closed within a 24-hour window, marking the largest liquidation event in crypto history. Approximately 1.6 million to 1.7 million trading accounts were liquidated during the cascade.

During the historic bull run where Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to approximately $16,000 in 2017, the primary bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart occurred during the week of April 24, 2017. Bitcoin was trading at approximately $1,200–$1,300 when the weekly MACD flipped bullish. Following this crossover, Bitcoin entered a parabolic phase, breaching $5,000 in early September and eventually surging past $16,000 in early December 2017 before peaking near $20,000. This 2017 crossover is frequently compared to the May 2025 weekly crossover, as both preceded massive parabolic expansions toward new all-time highs. A similar bullish cross occurred in early 2016, which many analysts cite as the original “ignition point” for the multi-year cycle that led into the 2017 frenzy.

Is Bitcoin Really “Dead” and “Going to Zero”?

In my opinion, no. If you’ve been in the Bitcoin space prior to the last two halving events like I have, this is nothing new for you. We’ve seen this market landscape and heard this stale contrarian take before.

Whenever you begin to hear phrases like “Bitcoin is dead” and “Bitcoin is going to zero,” it’s probably in your best interest to go in the opposite direction of the crowd and actually buy Bitcoin instead because, by this point, Bitcoin has most likely bottomed when these phrases are being tossed around.

As Warren Buffett famously said:

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Warren Buffett first shared this famous maxim in his 1986 Chairman’s Letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. It serves as a cornerstone of contrarian investing, suggesting that the best buying opportunities arise when market sentiment is at its lowest — much like the high-fear environment currently seen in the February 2026 crypto markets.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recently plunged to its lowest levels in years, mirroring Bitcoin’s descent from its October 2025 highs. On February 6, 2026, the index hit an all-time low of 5 as Bitcoin dropped to its recent bottom near $60,000. This represented a significant shift from “Greed” levels of 76 seen in mid-2025. As of February 22, 2026, the index is in a state of extreme fear, currently reading 5, just as Bitcoin consolidates near $64,000–$67,500.

Volatility is a feature, not a bug, of Bitcoin, in my opinion, and can provide golden buying opportunities for those who do even some basic research and educate themselves on the historic four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin. Any asset that experiences strong rallies needs time to digest its gains, which temporarily causes that asset to sell off before it can begin to make its next move higher.

Bitcoin has had eight drawdowns of at least 50% over the last 12 years but has climbed back stronger in all eight of those prior drawdowns. Now, I know that past history does not mean things will go like that in the future, but history is on our side to recover from this current drawdown of at least 50%. Last time I checked, a 100% success rate was pretty darn impressive and hard to beat. Don’t miss this golden buying opportunity in the $64,000–$65,000 range.

We are currently in the accumulation phase, so plan accordingly and don’t miss your chance to buy at these levels. According to the new 2023 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, we are currently in the “BUY!” band and dangerously close to the lowest tiered band on the updated chart, which is the “Basically a Fire Sale” band, as of February 22, 2026.

The “BUY!” band signals a strong buy, which historically represents levels where downside risk is diminished and long-term accumulation is favored. In late January 2026, Bitcoin briefly dropped into the “Basically a Fire Sale” zone (the lowest purple/dark blue band) when it plunged toward $60,000. It has since recovered slightly into the “BUY!” range.

Dumb Money Sells While Smart Money Buys

While weak-handed retail investors are panic selling and heading for the exits, institutional investors are accumulating hand over fist, and some are even entering the space for the very first time. Smart money is acting like retail investors have over the past few years and is adopting one of their core investment strategies: “Buy the Dip.”

It’s truly baffling that more retail investors aren’t as bullish as I am about Bitcoin’s future and scooping up this deeply discounted Bitcoin. Investing is the only space where people get nervous and/or scared to buy an asset that has experienced a significant recent drawdown. When a person’s favorite clothing store offers a 50% discount on its merchandise, people flock to the store and buy. The same thing happens when your favorite grocery store offers similar discounts on the items you enjoy. Why should your thinking on discounted investments like Bitcoin be any different?

What Is My Proof of Institutional Buying?

I’m confident in Bitcoin’s recovery because institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin. As of early 2026, 86% of institutional investors either currently have some Bitcoin exposure or plan to have Bitcoin exposure by the end of 2026, and about 50% of global hedge funds own some Bitcoin exposure.

In addition, notable banks and institutions have completely changed their stance on Bitcoin over the past few years, including brokerage firms like BlackRock and Fidelity Investments and, more recently, Bank of America, Cambridge Associates, and even the notorious contrarian and detractor of Bitcoin, Vanguard.

BlackRock recommends investors allocate 1%–2% of their total portfolio value to Bitcoin. Some analysts at BlackRock are even more bullish on Bitcoin and suggest higher allocations depending on your risk tolerance profile.

Fidelity Investments recommends allocating 1%–3% of total portfolio value to Bitcoin.

Recent believers in Bitcoin and those accumulating in this deeply discounted range include major players in finance such as Bank of America, Cambridge Associates, and Vanguard.

According to Barbara Goodstein, Managing Partner of R360:

“In fact, institutional adoption is increasing. While individuals are selling Bitcoin and cashing in right now, institutions have flipped. Bank of America and Merrill Lynch previously restricted client access to Bitcoin, and now they’re recommending a 1%–4% allocation. That’s a major reversal. Cambridge Associates advises endowments and foundations representing trillions in capital. They previously were not interested in Bitcoin, and now they’re recommending a 1%–2% allocation. So, that’s a 10x–20x increase in guidance. Universities and foundations are typically waiting for institutional cover before allocating. They will now jump in. We are very bullish on this space. We think that this is a temporary blip, just like they’ve had temporary blips in the past. We think that the institutional adoption that we’re seeing is going to drive increased strength in Bitcoin.”

Even the notoriously contrarian and famous detractor of Bitcoin, Vanguard, has completely done a 180 on its stance. On December 2, 2025, Vanguard began allowing its clients to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs for the first time at its investment firm.

This just goes to show how far Bitcoin has truly come over the last few years and how it is becoming an increasingly mainstream asset class owned by investors of all ages. Believe it or not, we are still so early in Bitcoin’s potential that it’s crazy to me that some people still think they “missed the boat on Bitcoin” and that “it’s too expensive.”

As of early 2026, only 6%–8% of all investors globally have at least some Bitcoin exposure, whether through owning the cryptocurrency directly or through spot Bitcoin ETF exposure. This equates to approximately 480–500 million people who currently own Bitcoin worldwide.

So what happens when that number increases over time to 15%, 25%, or even 40% Bitcoin adoption by investors globally? The price of Bitcoin will rise sharply.

At the same time, what happens when these major institutions and financial juggernauts begin recommending that investors increase their Bitcoin portfolio exposure from current levels of 1%–4% to new standards of 10%, 15%, or even as high as 40% Bitcoin exposure, as Ric Edelman suggests over the next decade or two? Again, this would lead to a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has noted that broader institutional adoption of just 2%–5% could theoretically drive Bitcoin’s price to $700,000. He has clarified that he is not directly promoting those specific higher percentages for individual investors at this time, but over time this may likely change as Bitcoin continues to mature as an asset class.

Some investors have recommended markedly larger allocations to Bitcoin. Ric Edelman, founder of DACFP and a well-known financial advisor, is firmly in that camp. In June 2025, Edelman significantly raised his guidance, arguing that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is obsolete due to increased human longevity and the “exponential” nature of blockchain technology. His current tiered recommendations are:

• Conservative investors: 10%

• Moderate investors: 25%

• Aggressive investors: 40%

Another prominent investor who promotes large Bitcoin exposure in an investor’s portfolio is Cathie Wood, founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Investment Management LLC. Through her firm’s research, Wood has argued that an “optimal” risk-adjusted portfolio could contain as much as 19.4% Bitcoin, depending on the market cycle.

So, for those who think they “missed the boat on Bitcoin,” respectfully, I think you should reconsider your shortsighted thinking on this new and emerging asset class that I feel is simply in a league of its own.

Why I Invest in Bitcoin

There will only ever be a total of 21 million Bitcoin created in history. Approximately 95.21% of the total Bitcoin supply has been mined as of February 23, 2026. This represents roughly 19,993,337 BTC currently in circulation out of the hard-coded limit of 21 million BTC. While over 95% has already been mined, the remaining 4.79% will take over a century to extract due to periodic halving events, with the final Bitcoin expected to be mined around the year 2140.

It is important to note that while nearly 20 million BTC have been mined, the “effective” circulating supply is significantly lower. As of early 2026, blockchain analysts and forensic firms estimate that between 2.3 million and 4 million Bitcoin have been permanently lost due to forgotten keys or death, leaving only about 15.5 to 17.6 million BTC actually accessible for trade. This “lost Bitcoin” represents approximately 11% to 19% of the total fixed supply of 21 million coins. Because these coins cannot be “reprinted” or recovered through a password reset, they effectively reduce the circulating supply while simultaneously making Bitcoin an even more scarce asset.

As of early 2026, approximately 29% to 30% of the current U.S. M2 money supply was created in the last five years. While viral social media claims often suggest that 80% of all U.S. dollars were printed since 2020, financial analysts and historical data from the Federal Reserve indicate these higher figures are largely based on a statistical misunderstanding of how the money supply is calculated. Regardless of whether the 80% figure is accurate, the 29%–30% figure is still significant.

While the money supply grew by roughly 30%, the actual Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the official measure of inflation — shows that the cost of living increased by approximately 21%–23% over that same five-year period, depending on the exact start date in 2020 or 2021. This means $1.00 in early 2021 has the same buying power as approximately $1.21–$1.23 in early 2026, demonstrating significant purchasing power loss.

In addition to this excessive money printing by the Federal Reserve, the value of the U.S. dollar declined 9.4% in the year 2025 alone. Since the United States effectively left the gold standard in August 1971, the U.S. dollar has lost approximately 87.5% of its domestic purchasing power as of February 2026.

This erosion in value means that $1 in 1971 has the same buying power as approximately $8.00 in 2026. On average, the dollar has experienced an official inflation rate of 3.85% per year over the last 55 years, leading to a cumulative price increase of 700.3%.

The things you need are not necessarily getting more expensive. The vehicle you choose to use to store your wealth — the U.S. dollar for many of us — is declining at such a rate that you are losing purchasing power little by little each year due to strategically planned inflation by the Federal Reserve, with a recent target of 3% inflation per year.

So instead of holding sizable portions of your net worth in U.S. dollars, which have continually lost value year after year, why not position yourself in an asset that has increased 174.49% over the last three years, 19.80% over the last five years, and 15,877.61% over the last 10 years as of February 20, 2026?

Even more impressive is the life-to-date return of Bitcoin. From its first recorded price of $0.00099 in October 2009 until February 20, 2026, Bitcoin has grown by more than 6,869,234,243%. Over this period, Bitcoin has maintained a compound annual return of approximately 130.65% over its trading history.

Once you educate yourself and understand how money truly works, you can break yourself and your loved ones free from this currency debasement and de-dollarization shift that has been occurring for quite some time. However, due to recently escalating geopolitical tensions across the globe, the rate at which these things are occurring has significantly increased. In addition, the strategic weakening of the U.S. dollar, as laid out in the Mar-a-Lago Accord by President Trump’s Chief Economic Adviser Stephen Miran, has gained significant traction since President Trump’s second term began on January 20, 2025.

Bitcoin Is the Digital Money of Choice for This New Digital Age

The modern world is becoming increasingly digital. Bitcoin is the digital money of choice for this new digital age. You can carry it with you wherever you go. You don’t have to worry about governments or leaders taking it away from you. Your purchasing power cannot be reduced by inflation because Bitcoin becomes scarcer over time, unlike fiat currencies, where supply increases as governments continually print more paper money.

You don’t have to worry about authenticity or “fake Bitcoin” because the Bitcoin network validates and updates the blockchain approximately every ten minutes. You don’t have to worry about a black swan event shutting down the Bitcoin network because it is the strongest computer network in the world, the most secure network in existence, and has never been hacked.

The Sheer Power and Scale of the Bitcoin Network

As the Bitcoin network hits the zettahash level, it acts as the ultimate “anti-printer.” To explain what that means: if you combined all the computing power of Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta, you would still not have anywhere close to the power of the Bitcoin network. Even if these five tech giants diverted every single GPU and CPU they owned toward a “51% attack” on Bitcoin, they would be attempting to fight a specialized ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) army that is orders of magnitude more efficient at SHA-256 hashing.

Unlike the centralized servers of Amazon (AWS) or Google Cloud, which have physical “kill switches” or geographic chokepoints, the zettahash era is supported by nodes and miners in every corner of the globe — from flared gas sites in Texas to hydro-powered stations in Ethiopia. There is immense power in its vast reach and scale by having nodes and miners distributed globally and, as a result, it offers true decentralized resilience.

This gives the Bitcoin network an energy moat. A zettahash-scale network requires such a massive amount of power that it effectively creates a physical wall around the data. Rewriting the history of the ledger at this level of difficulty would require more electricity than most medium-sized nations produce.

A zettahash is so vast that if every person on Earth performed one hash per second by hand, it would take the entire human race roughly 4,000 years to do what the Bitcoin network currently does in one second.

Why I Also Invest in Gold

While I am also extremely bullish on gold, I hold these two alternative assets for different reasons. Currently, gold makes up 14% of my total portfolio value. It did not start at this allocation, but over the last nearly three years since I first purchased the sound money asset in March 2023, it has experienced a strong momentum rally and, as a result, now represents a significantly larger portion of my total portfolio value.

I invest in gold not only because it is a true store of value that has proven itself for thousands of years, but also because it helps provide stability to my portfolio by balancing out my more speculative investments in equities in emerging sectors and industries such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, battery storage, and quantum computing. These more speculative investments tend to be pre-revenue or have little to no revenue, and because some of these technologies are still years away from commercialization, they tend to be highly volatile and trade mostly on headlines due to their lack of earnings growth at the moment.

Over the past three years, I have additionally benefited from gold acting more like a growth stock with strong momentum — or even a meme stock — rather than a traditional, slow-moving store of value. Since I first started investing in gold at $1,878 an ounce on March 11, 2023, gold has been a strong investment for me. It has increased 174.02% since my initial purchase. For comparison, the S&P 500 has increased 77.96% during that span, and even with Bitcoin’s lackluster performance in 2025, Bitcoin still remains the ROI king for me. It has delivered a total return of 228.32% since March 11, 2023, when it was trading at $20,632.

However, despite the many benefits of gold, it does have some major flaws. For instance, you cannot buy a cup of coffee with gold. You cannot go into a coffee shop and shave off bits of gold to pay for your daily coffee or exchange shares of gold miners such as Newmont Corporation (NEM) or AngloGold Ashanti (AU) for it, both of which I believe in and have owned for quite some time.

Another major flaw in gold is storage. You need proper security to store gold safely and securely. Third, you cannot easily carry gold with you wherever you go. If you think you can, try bringing several gold bars onto an airplane and see what happens. However, I do not recommend this because if you do not have proper documentation to show proof of ownership, there is a risk it could be confiscated.

Closing Remarks

In closing, the fundamentals of Bitcoin and my initial investment thesis for buying Bitcoin remain unchanged. Governments around the world continue to print money on their “magic money printers” without an end in sight, with a targeted inflation rate here in the United States of 3% annually. Unlike the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve, no one — not even a president or a tech giant — can print more Bitcoin. The issuance is governed by code, not policy.

It is a fascinating irony: the more the “magic printer” is used to manage the U.S. economy, the more attractive the “zeta-level” security of the Bitcoin network becomes to global investors looking for a lifeboat.

Therefore, my strategy remains the same. I am accumulating as much as I can at these levels and will continue to allocate capital toward this asset class in the foreseeable future.

Don’t be one of those people who will say in the near future, “Man, I wish I bought Bitcoin at $64K!” Now is your chance to change the trajectory of your family’s wealth — possibly for generations to come — if you act accordingly and start dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin, especially while it has declined 48.72% to its current value of $64,721.00 since reaching its all-time high of $126,210.50 on October 6, 2025.

You know the game plan now. Go out and make it happen.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The statements made in this publication are opinions only and are provided for educational and entertainment purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

The author holds positions in many of the securities mentioned and may initiate or exit positions at any time.

What Is SanDisk?

SanDisk Corporation engages in the development, manufacture, and provision of storage devices and solutions based on NAND flash technology. Its products include solid-state drives (SSD), memory cards, and USB flash drives. The company was founded on February 5, 2024, but spun off from Western Digital Corporation on February 24, 2025. SanDisk Corporation is headquartered in Milpitas, CA. As of February 11, 2026, it has a market cap of $98.17 billion.

Why Have SanDisk Shares Soared 1,445% in the Past Year?

The primary driver for this extraordinary performance is the company’s position as a critical, high-performance storage supplier in the generative AI boom. There are several key drivers for this growth.

The first key driver for this growth is the surging AI data center demand. The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure has created an “insatiable” demand for high-performance storage, specifically NAND flash memory, which is SanDisk’s specialty.

The second key driver for this growth is the severe memory shortage and pricing power. A tight supply of NAND flash has caused memory prices to soar. SanDisk has been able to significantly raise prices for its solid-state drives (SSDs).

The third key driver for this growth is blowout earnings and revenue. On January 29, 2026, SanDisk reported a 61% year-over-year revenue increase to $3 billion and a 505% jump in operating profits to $1.1 billion for the quarter. SanDisk also reported a 672% increase in net income, reaching $803 million.

The fourth key driver for this growth is strategic position. As a newly independent company focused specifically on flash, it is seen as a “pure-play” beneficiary of the AI data infrastructure buildout. Stock spinoffs historically outperform the broader market, with studies showing average gains of roughly 10% to over 20% in the first 12–22 months. Investors often see the best results by focusing on smaller, less-followed, or “spun-off” companies rather than the parent, notes Value Bob on Medium. To put it frankly, what SanDisk has done since its spin-off is what investors dream of. SanDisk shares have experienced a massive surge, gaining over 1,500% since their debut in early 2025 following their spin-off from Western Digital.

The fifth key driver for this growth is analyst upgrades. Following strong earnings, analysts have significantly raised price targets, reflecting confidence that this surge in demand will continue, with some forecasting high-capacity 3D NAND prices to rise further. The stock has continued to gain momentum in 2026, with some analysts considering it one of the most significant, albeit delayed, beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure race.

What Has Caused the 22% Sell-Off in SanDisk Over the Past Week?

There are several key reasons why the stock has pulled back 21.96% over the past week. I believe all of these reasons, however, are only temporary.

The first reason for the recent pullback in SanDisk is profit-taking and momentum exhaustion. After a massive run tied to AI memory demand, many memory stocks soared into early 2026, including SanDisk. That sharp advance created short-term overbought conditions, leading traders to take profits and rotate into cheaper or next-in-line tech stocks. This kind of pullback after a momentum surge is very typical and is very healthy in order for a stock to digest some of its gains before its next leg higher.

The second reason for the recent pullback in SanDisk is broader market and macro headwinds. Tech stocks in general have faced pressure due to rising bond yields, market volatility, and risk-off sentiment, which tends to hit high-beta names like memory more than broader indices.

The third reason for the recent pullback in SanDisk is reignited AI bubble fears. Last week, all the major hyperscalers reported their earnings and guides for 2026. They left analysts baffled with their eye-popping AI capex spend projections. The projected combined total AI capex spend between the four major hyperscalers is a staggering $625 billion in 2026, with Amazon projecting to spend $200 billion, Alphabet $185 billion, Meta $135 billion, and Microsoft with a Wall Street consensus of $105 billion. Now, let’s compare this with the top Chinese AI companies, which are projected to spend $74 billion in 2026. The market here is asking a very simple question: “What if we don’t need to spend that much?”

The fourth reason for the recent pullback in SanDisk is total liquidation by Western Digital. Since the beginning of February, Western Digital has begun selling the remaining 7.5 million shares of SNDK stock that it still owns. These shares represent the final portion of the roughly 20% stake the company retained following the tax-free spin-off of its flash business on February 24, 2025. Western Digital management has stated its intention to monetize these remaining shares before the one-year anniversary of the separation. The target completion is by February 24, 2026. With the one-year anniversary coming up on the best-performing stock spin-off of all time on February 24, now is a great time to sell for Western Digital because, on February 3, 2026, the company announced a new $4 billion share buyback program, reflecting increased liquidity and confidence in its standalone hard disk drive (HDD) business.

Why I’m Still Bullish on SanDisk?

I believe this short-term selling pressure on the SanDisk stock is only temporary and should conclude by February 24, 2026. During this next two-week period, I expect a lot of volatility, with the possibility of the stock retreating down to its average annual price of 2026 of $471.33.

Additionally, I am still uber bullish from SanDisk’s recent Q2 earnings on January 29, 2026, in which the company posted a drastic beat of $6.20 adjusted when the Street was anticipating $3.62. But what really impressed me was their Q3 guide, in which SanDisk posted a Q3 EPS of $12–$14. The Street was only anticipating $5.11. For the Q3 revenue guide, SanDisk posted $4.4–$4.8 billion. Again, this was much higher than the Street anticipated at roughly $3.0 billion. Lastly, for Q3 gross margins, they are anticipating anywhere between 65–67%, which is markedly higher than a lot of the other AI infrastructure names in this space.

During the January 29, 2026 earnings call, SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler described the company’s position at the start of an AI-driven memory supercycle by stating they were “just warming up.” Goeckeler emphasized that recent record-breaking results were not a peak but the beginning of a structural shift in the industry, driven by artificial intelligence creating a “step change in demand” fundamentally different from past commodity cycles.

From where I sit, SanDisk is still a “Strong Buy” despite its recent pullback over the past week. I would take advantage of this current dip in share price by nibbling on some shares, but keep dry powder handy because the stock price may dip lower into the high $400s over this next two-week period of selling pressure from Western Digital selling its remaining 7.5 million shares of SanDisk stock.

After February 24, 2026, I believe the stock will continue its strong momentum uptrend and reach $800. A main driver of this is that, as of February 11, 2026, SanDisk’s 50-day moving average price is approximately $358.19. This technical indicator reflects a significant upward trend compared to its 200-day moving average of $155.36, highlighting the stock’s rapid growth since its separation from Western Digital in early 2025. The current stock price of $593.25 is trading well above its 50-day average, signaling strong medium-term bullish momentum. “The trend is your friend,” and SanDisk’s trend is onward and upward.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The statements made in this publication are opinions only and are provided for educational and entertainment purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

The author holds positions in many of the securities mentioned and may initiate or exit positions at any time.

To put this in terms of precious metals spot prices, gold dropped $600 in value while silver lost over $30 an ounce. The precious metals market saw a $3–$5 trillion (with a “T”) drop in gold’s market cap and a $1–$2 trillion loss in silver’s market cap. Combined, the two metals lost between $7 and $10 trillion in market cap when accounting for secondary effects, which is a significant portion of U.S. GDP. It was the largest single-day drop in modern precious metals history.

In this article, I will explain: first, what led to the parabolic rally in precious metals over the last few years; second, how gold and silver gained even more momentum—spurring a further melt-up that became even more aggressive over the last three months in particular; and lastly, what caused this historic market flush for the ages in these thousand-year-old commodities.

Why Have Precious Metals Been Soaring Over the Last Few Years, and When Did It Start?

If you have been reading or watching the news at all over the last few years, I am sure that you have heard or noticed that the price of precious metals has been steadily rising for quite some time. Over the last few years, this rapid price appreciation has caught the attention of everyday investors, institutional investors, central banks, and the mainstream media alike.

A new major bull run in gold began in December 2015, which continues to see strong performance today and caught its second wind starting in 2018. Since that time, several key events have led to its consistently strong performance and accelerated its growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation fears, and central bank buying. Additionally, gold has seen further strength more recently and has been on a meteoric rise because of a significant cyclical bull move that began in early October 2023.

Since early October 2023, gold has seen exceptionally strong gains that have recently gone parabolic. There are several factors that led to this most recent run-up in gold.

The first reason is that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. stock market was down significantly and inflation was very high. Increased money supply and supply chain disruptions led to high inflation, with the CPI peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. In October 2022, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took a major step by beginning to buy gold for its central bank reserves, lessening its holdings of U.S. dollars—the world’s largest reserve asset at the time—and reducing its exposure to U.S. Treasuries.

The PBOC’s strategy focuses on long-term buying, and the central bank went on a significant 18-month gold-buying streak that began in October 2022 and ended in May 2024, followed by a pause period and then a subsequent resumption of gold buying again in November 2024. As of January 2026, the PBOC has sustained a 14-month buying streak, accumulating 1.35 million ounces since November 2024.

The goal of these moves by the PBOC is part of a long-term strategy to diversify foreign reserves away from the U.S. dollar and hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. The bank’s purchases have positioned it as one of the largest official-sector buyers of gold in the world, often triggering price rallies when they resume buying after a pause—which over the last five years has been few and far between.

This central bank gold buying initiated by the Chinese government has led to the creation and proliferation of both the De-Dollarization Trade and the Debasement Trade by central banks across the globe. These occur when global capital begins to shift away from the dollar. There are subtle differences between the two trades, but both are bullish for precious metals.

The Debasement Trade is: “I want to own something other than fiat currency.” This has been driven by a weakening U.S. dollar over the last few years, increased rates, geopolitics, growing anti-American sentiment, and/or as part of a central bank’s diversification strategy.

The De-Dollarization Trade is: “I don’t want to own dollars and subject myself to U.S. sanctions.” An example of this is Russia and China attempting to move away from the seizure of central bank assets.

There are two dynamics at play here, and both have been very bullish for gold. Gold is essentially being squeezed by emerging-market central banks trying to put both of these positions on at the same time. In the case of the typical investor in developed markets, however, they want to own gold, silver, and the precious metals space primarily for the debasement reason due to the weakening dollar.

Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, Samantha Dart, explained the current gold bull run by saying:

“One of the main structural drivers of this rally—actually since ’22—has been incremental central bank buying, especially emerging-market central bank buying since the freezing of the Russian assets. Think of it more as a diversification of reserves into gold: If it happened to Russia, maybe it can happen to me.

That has driven a lot of buying, and this is a market where supply is unable to respond quickly. So the more buyers you have competing for a limited amount of physical gold, the more prices are supported significantly. That has been the primary driver.

What’s changed this year, though, is that with Fed cuts, ETF positioning is also longer and longer—and that’s physically backed. So you have more people competing for that same limited amount of bullion.”

Usually, after gold has run for a bit during a precious metals bull run, silver starts to catch a bid as investors rotate some of their gold gains into slightly riskier assets like silver. The most recent severe parabolic surge in silver started in early 2025, breaking through historical resistance levels and exceeding $70 an ounce by year-end 2025.

Silver began 2025 at $28.92 and finished the year over $72 an ounce, representing a 147% surge, with prices briefly exceeding $100 an ounce in January 2026. The surge was powered by strong retail investor buying and a tight physical market, causing increased volatility and forcing margin-requirement hikes.

In addition to these reasons, the current parabolic trend differs from previous spikes such as early 2011—when silver reached $50 an ounce for the first time in 31 years—and the 1979–1980 Hunt Brothers spike, when the Hunt Brothers attempted to corner the silver market. The Hunt Brothers were successful briefly before losing everything and declaring bankruptcy when the parabolic move in silver reversed just as quickly as it rose.

The current parabolic trend has also been driven by increased industrial demand and inflationary hedging, as gold prices of $5,000–$5,600 an ounce became unmanageable for most individuals as a store of wealth. As a result, silver became the next-best alternative for investors across the globe.

What Has Been the Catalyst for the Further Melt-Up in Precious Metals Over the Last Three Months?

The recent “melt-up” in gold and silver—which saw gold peak near $5,600 and silver rise dramatically before a sharp late-January 2026 reversal—was driven by a combination of intense geopolitical, fiscal, and monetary factors rather than just supply and demand.

The first reason was the strategic weakening of the U.S. dollar by President Trump and his key economic advisor, Stephen Miran. This plan to weaken the dollar for trade purposes was laid out in the Mar-a-Lago Accord. The plan succeeded in 2025, as the U.S. dollar lost 9% of its value in a single year. As a result, holders of U.S. dollars around the world exchanged them for the safe-haven alternative of precious metals, partially driving the sharp momentum rally over the last few months.

The second reason was growing concern over increasing inflation in the United States and expectations that markets were pricing in a new Fed Chair who would be more dovish—thus increasing liquidity by printing more U.S. dollars, which would lead to higher inflation. When inflation fears rise, investors seek shelter in gold and silver. This was another catalyst for the melt-up, particularly since November 2025.

The third reason was a significant increase in geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty. Everywhere you looked, tensions were boiling over—China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Taiwan, Venezuela, and Greenland. When the world is on edge, investors and citizens alike seek safety in gold and silver.

The fourth reason was fear over a lack of future Fed independence, as President Trump publicly lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell and threatened to fire him several times over the past few months. This uncertainty pushed investors toward the safety and security of precious metals.

The fifth reason was continued central bank diversification away from U.S. dollars into precious metals, particularly gold—which has now eclipsed the U.S. dollar as the world’s largest reserve asset. In 2025, the National Bank of Poland bought the most gold on record. Retail investors also piled in, purchasing gold and silver ETFs, which saw record inflows in late 2025.

The sixth and final reason was silver’s unique industrial squeeze. Silver’s rise was particularly intense due to its dual role as both a safe-haven asset and a critical industrial metal. A fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficits, combined with surging demand from AI data centers, solar energy, and electric vehicles, created a physical squeeze that outperformed gold.

What Caused Last Friday’s Historic Crash in Precious Metals?

Last Friday, January 30, 2026, gold and silver suffered historic, rapid losses, with gold plunging 11% and silver crashing over 31% in a single trading day. The sell-off began in the overnight session and was driven by several factors, including a surging U.S. dollar, fears of a hawkish new Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, profit-taking after parabolic moves, and forced liquidations caused by margin calls.

As prices began the day slightly lower, leveraged traders were forced to exit positions, triggering a chain reaction that sent gold and silver sharply lower throughout the day and wreaked havoc on precious metals market caps.

The primary driver was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, signaling a more hawkish, anti-inflationary stance. This triggered a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar, making dollar-denominated metals less attractive. I find it surprising that President Trump selected a more hawkish Fed Chair after repeatedly threatening to fire Jerome Powell for not cutting rates fast enough.

Additionally, President Trump and Stephen Miran successfully weakened the U.S. dollar through the Mar-a-Lago Accord in 2025. Warsh’s anti-inflation stance implies a stronger dollar—the opposite of what Trump’s administration had achieved. A stronger U.S. dollar is bearish for precious metals, as investors worry less about inflation eroding purchasing power.

For these reasons, the Warsh nomination leaves me scratching my head. The logic between what President Trump has said he wants and what he has actually accomplished simply does not align with his Fed Chair nominee.

The move was exacerbated by heavy profit-taking and forced liquidation of leveraged positions—gasoline on the fire. Parabolic moves tend to:

1. End nastily

2. End suddenly without warning

3. Occur around turning points as volatility spikes

The Warsh nomination caused markets to reprice rate-cut expectations, putting further downward pressure on precious metals. All of this culminated on Friday, January 30, 2026.

Was This Correction the Precious Metals Bubble Popping?

My stance is split. Regarding gold, I remain very bullish and believe it will continue its momentum toward $6,000, and eventually $7,000 an ounce. JPMorgan recently raised its 2026 year-end gold target to $6,300 on February 2, 2026.

I use gold stocks in my portfolio as a hedge against more speculative holdings and as a store of value. Gold has also behaved like a growth—and at times almost meme-like—asset over the last 2–3 years. Owning gold is like a Swiss Army knife for your portfolio.

Keith Lerner, Chief Investment Officer of Truist Wealth, shares a similar view:

“Our view is that it’s still warranted to have at least a modest position in portfolios. When we look at days where stocks and bonds are down, gold has been up more than 50% of the time over the last year.

When we compare prior gold cycles to the current one, it suggests this one has further to go. Given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, we still think gold has a place in portfolios.”

Regarding silver, I am less bullish in the short term. Silver plunged over 31%, its second-worst day on record. Spot silver fell to around $83 an ounce, with futures near $78. This was a forced unwind driven by volatility and margin calls.

After parabolic rallies, momentum often snaps back sharply in the opposite direction—exactly what we’ve seen.

While gold’s momentum was driven by central bank buying, silver’s surge was fueled largely by retail FOMO. Many late-stage buyers panic-sold during last Friday’s correction.

Since peaking at $121.62 on January 29, 2026, silver has fallen roughly 40%. The current 50-day moving average sits near $75, and silver is trading below it—typically a bearish signal and a threat to its uptrend.

For these reasons, I believe gold and silver are on opposite short-term paths. FOMO buying could return if silver regains its 50-day moving average. Time will tell.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The statements made in this publication are opinions only and are provided for educational and entertainment purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

The author holds positions in many of the securities mentioned and may initiate or exit positions at any time.

The CNBC Fast Money Trader Acronym Challenge is an annual competition where the show’s traders create investing acronyms made up of the stock tickers they believe will outperform during the upcoming year.

Fast Money Trader Acronym Rules According To CNBC’s Fast Money Show

1. Acronym is a real word or name.

2. Acronym letter must match the first letter of each ticker.

3. One acronym letter per company/sector.

For Reference, Here Were The Top 3 Fast Money Trader Acronym Winners

2025 Performance

• TUBE= Up 35.6% by Guy Adami

• GENAI= Up 34.4% by Dan Nathan

• CARBED= Up 33.8% by Karen Finerman

GremlinsAtPlay’s 2026 CNBC Fast Money Acronym Challenge Acronym= LOCATIONS

GremlinsAtPlay’s LOCATIONS= This year’s central theme is the various LOCATIONS in the market where I see the upmost opportunities for exponential growth based on current Mega Trends, industry tailwinds, geopolitical factors, the debasement trade and overall market conditions. These are the areas presenting the most significant opportunities for exponential growth and include key sectors driven by technological innovation and global transitions.

GremlinsAtPlay’s 2026 Acronym Trading Performance will begin to be tracked starting at market open on Wednesday, January 14, 2026 and will close at market close on Thursday, December 31, 2026.

LOCATIONS #1- My Real Official Selection

L= LITE- Lumentum Holdings Inc

O= OKLO- OKLO Inc

C= CRML- Critical Metals Corporation

A= ASTS- AST SpaceMobile Inc

T= TEM- Tempus AI Inc

I= IBIT- iShares Bitcoin ETF

O= ONDS- Ondas Holdings

N= NEM- Newmont Corporation

S= SNDK- SanDisk Corporation

LOCATIONS #2- An Alternate Version Just For Fun

L= LRCX- Lam Research Corporation

O= OKLO- OKLO Inc

C= CLS- Celestica Inc

A= ALB- Albemarle Corporation

T= TE- T1 Energy Inc

I= IREN- IREN Ltd

O= ONDS- Ondas Holdings

N= NBIS- Nebius Group N.V.

S= STX- Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The statements made in this publication are opinions only and are provided for educational and entertainment purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

The author holds positions in many of the securities mentioned and may initiate or exit positions at any time.

This article was written by Jake Felag.

Now, I am releasing GremlinsAtPlay’s Sweet 16, which is a more condensed version of the Felag 51. These 16 stocks are the Top 16 Stock Picks That I Have The Upmost Conviction In For 2026. In other words, I am bullish on all the stocks that make up the Felag 51. However, I am extremely bullish on all the stocks that make up GremlinsAtPlay’s Sweet 16 Stock Picks For 2026. This is a more concentrated portfolio of all the names that I think are set to see exponential growth in 2026, and therefore, I am allocating more capital toward these names because of the upside I foresee for them based on company-specific and sector- or industry-specific tailwinds, market narratives, the geographical landscape and the macro environment of this year.

Risk Management Strategies
Several of these stocks may exhibit higher volatility, as some represent early-stage companies that are pre-revenue or currently generate limited earnings. To manage this risk, I maintain a long-term investment perspective, as I believe these companies have substantial growth runways over the next three to five years, assuming favorable market conditions and no material changes to their underlying fundamentals. As long as the original investment thesis remains intact, I intend to maintain long positions in these holdings.

To further mitigate risk, no single position exceeds 7% of my total portfolio value. Additionally, initial allocations to new investments are limited to no more than 1% of the total portfolio. Together, these risk management practices are designed to help reduce exposure to volatility and provide a degree of protection against factors outside of my direct control.

GremlinsAtPlay’s Sweet 16: 2026 Edition

Fateful Eight

1. GOOGL- Alphabet Inc

Neoclouds

2. NBIS- Nebius Group N.V

Semiconductors, Semiconductor Equipment & Semiconductor Equipment Providers

3. WDC- Western Digital Corporation

4. SNDK- SanDisk Corporation

5. LITE- Lumentum Holdings Inc

Power, Nuclear Energy & Renewable Energy

6. OKLO- OKLO Inc

Precious Metals

7. NEM- Newmont Corporation

Rare Earths & Critical Minerals

8. UAMY- United States Antimony Corporation

Construction, Contractors, Building Equipment & Building Materials

9. QXO- QXO Inc

Drones, Robotics, Defense & Defense Tech

10. ONDS- Ondas Holdings

11. KRKNF- Kraken Robotics Inc

Space

12. RKLB- Rocket Labs USA Corporation

13. ASTS- AST SpaceMobile Inc

Financials

14. HOOD- Robinhood Markets Inc

15. GS- Goldman Sachs Group Inc

Healthcare & Biotech

16. SLS- Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc

Disclaimer & Disclosure

The statements made in this publication are opinions only and are provided for educational and entertainment purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Readers are responsible for conducting their own due diligence and consulting with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions. This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

The author holds positions in many of the securities mentioned and may initiate or exit positions at any time.