The market is now at crossroads, and we have to position accordingly. Let’s start with the macro.

Macro

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I’ve now identified another company that I think is at its cycle lows inshaAllah. With semis already gotten their run up last quarter and software in the middle of one, there don’t seem to be many asymmetrical opportunities in the market. Except this.

Here’s what I’ll cover in this post:

1. Overview of the company

2. How it’s a standout in its sector

3. Recent government policy benefitting its business

4. High backlog, catering to AI data centers

5. Technical Analysis

6. Price Targets

Let’s get right into it.

Company Overview

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Although I’m bullish in the immediate short term, there is a line in the sand that I need to discuss. So let’s get right into it.

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We’re now approaching a 2 week stretch when a LOT of money can be made inshaAllah. So it’s important to be in the right stocks to make the most of this run. So I’ll limit my focus to only the top 4 plays.

Let’s get right into it.

Macro

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We have been careful keeping a lot of risk on the books for the past 4 weeks. We instead used the volatility for large 1-2 day swings, and that has paid off immensely. Alhmadulillah. But the tide is finally changing, and I’m seeing a supportive environment for longer duration swings. I’ll discuss such top 9 swings in this post with entry and SL levels, and we’ll execute them in Discord this week inshaAllah.

But first, let’s discuss macro.

Macro

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Here are the receipts -

Called the SPY drop to 730, and we saw SPY touch the exact level, to the dollar.

Monday morning in pre-market, when MU was in 940s, I told the group to sell it and that it would likely go to low 800s. That’s exactly what happened -

Then we caught the bottom on Wednesday -

We rode it up to the 900s, and sold the top on Friday.

We positioned for Monday on Friday already. Alhamdulillah!

For this week's plan, I’ll begin with the macro as usual. We’ll then look at the sectors that show strength, and talk about our swings for this week inshaAllah.

Let’s get right into it.

Macro

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Let’s get right into it.

Historic Memory Correlation

Whenever I analyze a stock or index, I like to see how it correlates with related assets. If two correlated assets suddenly split ways, one of them is lying, and I have to figure out which. This is the case with memory right now.

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Now let’s dive into this week. We’ll start with the macro, and then head into individual setups inshaAllah.

Macro

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We also perfectly called the MU price action. Many in the group made bank on Friday day-trading its 12% swing, MashaAllah.

Now We Flip The Script

Next week is a little different, and I suspect many folks will be caught on the wrong side of the trade. Until now we focused on sectors with relative strength, but that’s not where you’ll find Alpha anymore. Let’s dive into the details -

There is one big macro uncertainty at the moment - inflation. Especially after the last PPI report and the current escalation in Iran, interest rates are likely to move up in anticipation of a Fed hike. Although I don’t expect a rate hike this year, market is driven by sentiments and we need to position accordingly.

Whenever there are inflation fears, the following sectors take a hit:

1. Growth

2. Asset light (software)

3. Companies with low or negative cash flows

4. Pre-revenue (ShitCos)

This includes most of IGV and Russell 2000 small caps. Hyperscalers will take a hit as well because they’re expected to raise capital through debt.

You’re already seeing it in the market. IGV has been stuck in a range since the past two weeks. And the strongest sector within it - cybersecurity - is flashing weakness. Notice the bearish divergence on CIBR, the cybersecurity ETF.

Once CIBR rolls over, IGV will be considerably weaker.

This weakness will translate over to SPY and QQQ as well. So, I don’t expect them to perform well over the next weeks.

The SPY chart had a classic failed breakout, and it will either bounce on the 50 EMA or will test the lower trend line.

Similarly, QQQ had a breakdown off the wedge and the next supports are at the 682 and 675 gap fills.

Until we see a confirmed reversal, expect SPY and QQQ to be weak.

Even IWM, the small caps Index, has a bearish divergence.

Confirming this hypothesis is that Crude Oil futures are gapping up tonight. There’s a strong bullish divergence here - notice the momentum and RSI charts have already broken out, with price yet to break out.

So, what’s the plan?

Here’s the Alpha Now

Good news is that the sectors that are the most immune to inflation are at the bottom of a correction -

1. Commodities

2. Precious metals

3. Heavy industries like Oil and Gas

Precious metals and Oil and Gas are very manipulated sectors and react to Trump tweets and other macro news in an instant. But amongst these, there’s one industry that is experiencing structural growth and that growth isn’t priced in yet.

All Roads Lead To Memory

Memory is still being treated as a commodity and has shown consistent strength during inflation fears over the past year. But subscribers are well aware that memory is no longer a commodity. Instead, it is the fastest growing sector with the widest MOAT within AI. And you’re currently getting it for 5 PE.

As we head into this week and next, I’m expecting MU and SKHY to bottom here inshaAllah.

You can see MU price is supported currently by the volume shelf at 810. There’s a gap at 780, and it’s possible that it fills it but it’s unlikely that it closes below 800 due to the volume shelf support.

Expect the price action to remain choppy

Although I believe memory is the place to be, a weak macro will affect its price action and make it choppy. For this reason, either you hold it for long duration, or you day-trade it, but isn’t suitable for swings.

Additional Swing Idea

Oil and gas is one of the few sectors displaying strength and is just coming out of a consolidation. I like it here, but need to be careful because it reacts violently to Trump’s tweets.

XOM (ExxonMobil)

Just like Crude Oil futures, ExxonMobil has a bullish divergence and has already broken out on the momentum and RSI charts, with price to follow inshaAllah.

This should be a breakout play. The ideal entry would be at the cross of 150, with a tight stop at 149.5.

Conclusion

I expect inflation fears to pressure growth, software, and pre-revenue names, and SPY, QQQ, and IWM all show the technical cracks to confirm it. I’m now just focusing on memory for sustained Alpha inshaAllah.

That’s it for now, see you in Discord!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only. You are responsible for verifying the details and assessing whether the trades are right for you. Do not consider this as financial advice.

Let’s start with the macro -

Macro

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It’s a must-have for all paid subscribers. Please join using the link below.

To all free subscribers, monthly subscription prices will double starting Monday (tomorrow). You can lock in half price by upgrading today.

Discord Link -

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Here’s the timeline of how we pulled it off:

Part 1 - Positioning for the week ahead

We position ourselves on Friday for the week ahead. This is because most traders identify setups over the weekend and enter them on Monday or overnight. If we’re already in those setups, we can sell the pops. That’s exactly what we did.

On Friday July 2, we distinctly marked the demand and supply zones for MU. We spotted that MU closed above the demand volume shelf and was due for a bounce. So we positioned ourselves in MU.

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Part 2 - Planning the week ahead

In last week’s plan, I told the group that we’ll be staying clear of Semi stocks for a few days and that I expect them to chop a bit.

Instead, we focused on Healthcare for the start of the week.

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Part 3 - Sunday overnight trading - pop in MU

In Sunday overnight trading, MU popped like we expected.

We sold the pop overnight. That was an easy 5% gain.

Part 4 - Monday: the selloff in Semis begins, and we buy GOOGL and healthcare.

On Monday, we got the chop in SMH that I expected. While the market was chopping, we were buying GOOGL, LLY and ISRG.

The screenshots tell you a better story than I can put in words.

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Part 5 - Getting breakouts in GOOGL, LLY and ISRG. Small wins before big ones

Next day (Tuesday), we saw GOOGL, LLY and ISRG breakout.

As per our rules, we trimmed GOOGL into resistance, and let the rest ride with stop above breakeven.

Also sold LLY and IRGC at breakout into strength.

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Part 6 - The double dip: two big wins in DELL

Same day (Tuesday), we identified our setup for the next day - DELL; and entered it.

I made a case for it to the group, as I always do, for high conviction trades.

Dell broke out the next day.

Sold DELL in strength in round 1

Reloaded DELL when it came back down to 418 at the 8 EMA.

Sold it again in strength. That was a 7% swing in DELL for both rounds.

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Part 8 - Episodic Pivot in PENG and Reloading MU for round 2

We reloaded MU at the bottom of the supply zone around 910.

Next day, my scans identified PENG as an Episodic Pivot - a high conviction setup. I made a case to the group -

Bought PENG at 78.

Took profits on PENG and MU in strength. That was a 12% swing on MU and 8% on PENG. Alhamdulillah

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Part 9 - META as the next big play

On Thursday, we identified META as an incredible setup. And I made the case to the group -

Bought META after hours are the lowest point at 627 with a 0.5% risk. Small risk means a very heavy position.

META broke out big time on Friday and sold most of it into strength at 772. That’s a 6% gain.

Reloaded MU at the same time for next week. The group knows the plan.

Conclusion

Here are the numbers:

MU round 1: 5%

GOOGL, LLY, ISRG: 2.7%

DELL rounds 1&2: 8%

MU round 2: 12%

PENG: 8%

META: 6%

Subscription Price Doubling on Monday

This is how we conduct the group. There’s so much value here, so I’ll be doubling the monthly subscription price starting Monday. Existing subscribers won’t be affected, so you’re welcome to join today at half the price.

Thanks for reading, have a great day!

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only. You are responsible for verifying the details and assessing whether the trades are right for you. Do not consider this as financial advice.

Positioning made Friday less painful, and we also exited our new swings early in the day before a large drawdown, Alhamdulillah.

Overall, a very positive week. Now let’s talk about next week.

I took much longer than usual to prepare for the week ahead because semis are in the middle of chop and IGV is at resistance. But we have some AMAZING setups this week, and they’re all non-tech. Here’s what I’ll discuss in this post:

1. When we can expect SMH to stop chopping

2. Does it make sense to swing software stocks

3. Rotation into non-tech sectors making new highs

4. Next week’s swing setups.

Let’s get right into it.

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Here’s the link:

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Entered MU at the lows as exited at the highs in 1220s - 18% move.

Entered BLZE, which is a current position with a 28% move.

Our LT account was slightly positive while the rest of the market was bloody red. Thanks to the quality of our positions and a new LT that we traded with a 13% profit.

As you know, I’m not here to write long articles - I’m here to make money. Before we get into this week’s 8 setups, let’s talk about the macro and what I expect in the markets to do next week inshaAllah.

Macro And The Week Ahead

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For our swing trades, we called the bottom and top for AXTI with a 23% move, along with other swings like BE (32%) and TSEM (26%) Alhamdulillah. Our strategy of sticking with high conviction LTs through volatility, and focusing on momentum leaders for swing trades with tight stops has been working well.

As we look forward to next week - while most stocks look extended, there’s one sector that has just bottomed and primed for a turnaround. As you see in the sector index chart below, there’s a clear bullish divergence in momentum right at support.

In the individual stock charts (covered later in the post), you’ll see huge volume coming in at support. These are indicators of a reversal. We’re talking about 40-90%+ expected moves inshaAllah. Let’s get right into it.

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Now, let’s focus on new swings on stocks that haven’t made their move yet. Here’s a list of 9 stocks with setups indicating they’re about to make larger moves inshaAllah.

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After any correction, you have a set of stocks that pose dramatic reversals. In this post, I list 10 top stocks that are AI leaders in their own segments that have bottomed and are primed for a rally back to the all time highs inshaAllah. I expect some of them to print 40%+ reversals. I will list the risk/reward ratios for each, so you can enter them according to your risk appetite.

Let’s get into it.

1. VICR

Vicor is one of my favorite stocks. It respects trend lines very well and, as you can see in the chart (second image), it just made a higher low and consolidated at the support before making an 8% move today. I know some of you are already in this stock as I posted this chart in Discord on June 8 when it was right at the trend line support.

I still like an entry here because you can keep the 8 EMA as your soft stop which is just 5 points away.

Previous close: 298

Stop: Close below the 8 EMA at 293.

Risk: 5 points

Reward: 63 points

R/R: 1/12

The next stock on our list showed us its relative strength in photonics today - undeniably the strongest in that sector right now and a better swing than AAOI, LITE or COHR.

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Let’s understand Marvell’s product lineup.

Overview of MRVL’s Products

If you listened to its recent earnings call, you know Marvell is experiencing an aggressive growth cycle driven by AI infrastructure demands.

• Interconnect (Scale-Out & DCI): This segment is seeing massive acceleration, with FY27 revenue growth expectations increased to over 70% year-over-year. Products include the 800G and 1.6T PAM4 DSPs, coherent light products for 2km to 20km reaches, and secure 1.6T ZR and ZR+ Data Center Interconnect (DCI) modules. Marvell projects its DCI business to reach a $1 billion annualized run rate in FY28.

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