Hallmark Abstract Wonders!

You Have Rights Most New York Property Buyers Don’t Know About!

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:27:27 GMT

You Have Rights, Make Sure You Exercise Them!

But unfortunately, the majority of New York property buyers don’t know that they possess the right to choose one of the most important components of their purchase transaction!

Think about it…Whether you’re selecting a doctor, buying a car, or making some other important financial decision, you will typically do your research, because the choice you make actually matters.

If you’re spending $500,000 or $10,000,000, shouldn’t the same care be taken when buying property in New York?

Whether you’re buying a home or a commercial property, it’s you, the buyer, and not your lender, not your attorney, and not “simply the company they usually use” who has the right to choose the title insurance provider being used.

Yet most buyers have no idea the choice of title insurance company can make a significant difference, so they use whatever company is chosen for them.

The first time they will know who the title insurance company is may be at the closing table when they are asked to write the premium check.

In a society where we research the differences between products, much less important, the company protecting what may be the largest financial commitment of a buyer’s life should be vetted, and then vetted again!

Here’s why making the choice matters: title insurance companies are not a commodity, and they are not interchangeable.

Title insurance is one of the most overlooked pieces of due diligence in a real estate transaction, and given the summary of its importance provided above, it deserves the five-minute read below.

The Right Nobody Tells You About

Real estate transactions move fast. Between mortgage paperwork, inspection reports, attorney reviews, dozens of signatures, and even more decisions that have to be made along the way, it’s easy for buyers to simply go along with whatever title insurance provider is being used.

But New York law is clear: the buyer has the right to select their own title insurance company. This isn’t a loophole or an insider tip but a consumer protection that exists precisely because title insurance is too important to leave as an afterthought.

The problem is that this right is rarely volunteered. Lenders, attorneys, and real estate agents often have their own preferred providers, and it’s ‘easier’ for everyone but the buyer to default to “whoever they usually use.”

Most buyers never know there was a choice to make in the first place.

Why the Choice Actually Matters

It’s tempting to assume that title insurance is just title insurance. That it’s just a box to check, a fee to pay, a formality on the way to closing. It isn’t.

Title companies can differ significantly in many important ways.

Here are just a few that we feel differentiate Hallmark Abstract Service from much of the competition. The entire list can be read by clicking the article link below:

Lower Ancillary & Non-Premium Charges - Hallmark Abstract Service title bills often reflect $500–$1,500 of savings in the ancillary and ‘junk’ fees compared with many competitors.
Claims History Reflects Underwriting Discipline — Since opening our doors in 2008, Hallmark Abstract Service has zero valid title claims! Why?
Encouraging Second Opinions — We routinely recommend obtaining a title bill from another company because transparency builds trust. And any significant fee discrepancies should always be examined.
Local expertise — familiarity with New York-specific title issues, county recording practices, and municipal requirements that vary block by block

None of this shows up on a fee sheet. It shows up later if, or when, there’s a problem, and the buyer finds out just how much the choice of provider mattered.

Protecting the Biggest Financial Commitment of Your Life

For most people, buying property, whether residential or commercial, represents what may be the single largest financial commitment they’ll ever make.

Title insurance exists to protect exactly that: your ownership rights.

Given the stakes, treating the choice of title provider as an afterthought doesn’t match the size of what’s actually being protected. This is a decision that deserves the same diligence buyers apply to choosing a lender or an attorney, and not one that should be made by default.

Do Your Due Diligence

The bottom line: know your rights before you’re sitting at the closing table. Ask who’s handling your title insurance, understand that you have the right to choose, and take the time to evaluate your options the same way you would any other major decision in the transaction.

It’s a five-minute conversation that can save buyers from a much longer, costlier one down the road.

Read the article: In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance

You can reach Hallmark Abstract Service CEO Mike Haltman here…

(516) 741-4723 (Long Island), NYC (646) 741-6101, mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

______________________________________________________________

Thank you for reading The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack.

We welcome your thoughts, questions, and topic ideas on real estate, mortgages, title insurance, or broader market trends.

If you are buying real estate in New York, understanding the differences between title insurance providers is essential.

Read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance”

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate… We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(516) 741-4723

About the Author

Michael Haltman is CEO of Hallmark Abstract Service, a New York-based title insurance firm specializing in residential and commercial transactions. With a background spanning Wall Street, fixed income markets, and real estate finance, he provides practical insight into housing trends, interest rates, credit markets, and economic forces shaping real estate.

Michael is also host of the Do You Ever Wonder podcast and serves as Board Chair of the Heroes To Heroes Foundation, supporting combat veterans transitioning to civilian life.

Antisemitism in NYC Schools Starts In Kindergarten

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:51:49 GMT

The Do You Ever Wonder podcast was created for the purpose of bringing subjects and people’s stories to the forefront, providing a platform to expand their footprints and reach.
Of course, we cover real estate-related subjects like our episode with Bob Knakal, but we also wonder about many other things as well.
The rise in overt antisemitism is certainly one of them!
Antisemitism is a subject that many people, Jews among them, seem to shy away from discussing, although they may acknowledge that the problem exists.
Often, it is looked at as someone else's issue, not as something happening in our own backyards.
But the quote often attributed to Albert Einstein seems to fit well here, ‘If I were to remain silent, I’d be guilty of complicity!”
In creating the Do You Ever Wonder podcast, these types of uncomfortable, and yet critically important, topics and subjects are the exact reason we do what we do.

For a long time, antisemitism in America felt like a problem someone else was dealing with, whether on a college campus, in an article’s comment section, or maybe in another country.

It didn’t feel like a kindergarten classroom.

It didn’t feel like a middle school hallway.

It didn’t feel like your kid’s school.

The plausible deniability is now gone!

Antisemitism is a clear and present danger!

Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, antisemitic incidents haven’t just risen on college campuses, but they’ve climbed inside America’s youngest classrooms.

New York City, home to the largest Jewish population outside of Israel, is ground zero.

Watch ‘Antisemitism in NYC Schools Is Worse Than You Think’ with our guest Moshe Spern on YouTube here: Antisemitism in NYC Schools Is Worse Than You Think... The Proof

By The Numbers

A new report from United Jewish Teachers (UJT), a New York advocacy group led by President Moshe Spern. puts hard data behind what many Jewish families and teachers have been feeling for years: things are bad, and they’re not getting better.

The report documents 250 antisemitic and anti-Israel incidents in New York City public schools between October 7, 2023, and July 2026. It was sent directly to Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels:

64.8% of incidents were direct acts — verbal harassment, physical threats, assaults, and hate symbols like swastikas
23.2% involved biased curriculum and classroom instruction about Israel and the Middle East
9.6% were disruptive events like walkouts and protests
2.4% fell into other categories, including incidents tied to teachers’ unions

Break it down by borough, and Brooklyn leads with 91 incidents, followed by Queens (68), Manhattan (62), the Bronx (22), and Staten Island (7). It’s not one neighborhood or one type of school, but is citywide.

What Our Kids Are Learning

Nearly a quarter of all incidents involved bias being learned directly from what’s being taught.

The lesson plan: Holocaust references and antisemitic tropes showed up repeatedly in the verbal harassment cases. Vandalism cases weren’t limited to graffiti, but included swastikas drawn inside schools.

These incidents “have created hostile learning and working environments across the system.”

Watch ‘Antisemitism in NYC Schools Is Worse Than You Think’ with our guest Moshe Spern on YouTube here: Antisemitism in NYC Schools Is Worse Than You Think... The Proof

NYC Removed Guardrails

Right after taking office, Zohran Mamdani rescinded a prior executive order that had formally adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism, which is the standard giving schools a consistent way to recognize antisemitism when they see it.

Schools then have to interpret hate speech and hostile behavior case by case, incident by incident, which is exactly how patterns of harassment get minimized, mislabeled, or simply ignored.

United Jewish Teachers is now pushing for the city to reverse course before the new school year, with five specific recommendations:

Re-adopt the IHRA definition of antisemitism across all DOE policy and training
Mandatory NYPD investigation and evidence preservation whenever hate graffiti appears in a school, instead of simply painting over it
A public, transparent database tracking antisemitic incidents system-wide
Mandatory antisemitism training for school staff
A full curriculum review to eliminate biased or demonizing narratives about Israel and Jewish people

As Spern has said: “The data make clear that current policies have failed.”

Is This Just A NYC Story?

It’s tempting to read this as a local New York story. It isn’t. NYC schools are where the data is most visible, thanks to organizations like UJT willing to do the counting. Similar patterns, like swastikas found in Long Island schools during Holocaust lessons, Nazi salutes directed at Jewish students, explosive materials discovered in a Syosset student’s home after antisemitic vandalism at school, suggest this isn’t isolated to five boroughs. It’s a snapshot of something bigger happening across American K-12 education.

So if this is happening in one of the most Jewish cities on Earth, with a strong civil rights infrastructure, what does that say about schools with far less scrutiny and far fewer advocates watching?

We Sat Down With Moshe Spern

To understand what’s happening inside these schools and what it will take to reverse the trend, Do You Ever Wonder wanted to hear directly from someone living this fight every day.

That’s why we sat down with Moshe Spern, President of United Jewish Teachers, for a candid conversation about what he’s seeing in classrooms across New York City, why he believes current policies have failed Jewish students and teachers, and what accountability actually looks like from here.

Watch ‘Antisemitism in NYC Schools Is Worse Than You Think’ with our guest Moshe Spern on YouTube here: Antisemitism in NYC Schools Is Worse Than You Think... The Proof

______________________________________________________________

Thank you for reading The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack.

We welcome your thoughts, questions, and topic ideas on real estate, mortgages, title insurance, or broader market trends.

If you are buying real estate in New York, understanding the differences between title insurance providers is essential.

Read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance”

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate… We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(516) 741-4723

About the Author

Michael is also the host of the Do You Ever Wonder podcast and has served in the past as Board Chair of the Heroes To Heroes Foundation, supporting combat veterans transitioning to civilian life.

The Hallmark Abstract Service Newsletter, August 21, 2026

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:58:30 GMT

In this issue, we're tackling the unsung heroes of real estate closings, the ripple effects of Japan's climbing bond yields on U.S. mortgage rates, and whether the country's mounting debt and deficits are pushing interest rates toward a breaking point.

The Hallmark Abstract Service Newsletter!

If you have any questions about real estate, mortgages, title insurance, or broader market trends, let us know using the contact information above.

🔴 Nobody Buys Their Jersey...But Quarterbacks Know They Can’t Win Without Them

In football, some players get all of the press, attention, and accolades, but the real work takes place in the trenches! It’s the same with real estate, and the trenches are where we live.

Heading into the Fall, what’s better than a good analogy that ties the start of the college and NFL seasons to real estate transactions and title insurance? It’s really such a smooth transition!

Read about how the non-glamour positions make a huge contribution toward making things work, both in football and real estate, in our article on Substack here.

🔴 Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield Above 2% WAS A Big Deal! Now, We’re Approaching 3%!

Japan’s rising bond yields may be one of the least discussed reasons U.S. mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. This article looks at how events in Tokyo could affect American homebuyers and real estate investors.

This article explores how events in Japan could affect American homebuyers and real estate investors.

Read more in our Substack article here.

🔴 The Point Of No Return For Lower Interest Rates? What It Means For Property Buyers

U.S. debt is currently at $39.9 trillion (now $40 trillion), the federal budget deficit will likely be over $2 trillion, inflation remains stubbornly high, and the economy is floundering.

So, are we at an interest rate tipping point?

In this Substack article, we look at the problems that exist and that have to be addressed in order to avoid a crisis. Read about it here.

Hallmark Abstract Service...You Buy Real Estate, We Protect It!

But, How?

Are You Buying Commercial or Residential Property in New York?

When you’re signing the contract, here’s something most buyers don’t realize...

You, not the seller, not the lender, and not your attorney, have the right to choose your title insurance provider.

And the title insurance firm you choose can make all the difference in how well your investment is protected.

At Hallmark Abstract Service, we don’t just issue a policy.

With a laser-focus, we uncover risks others may miss, work to protect what may be the largest financial commitment of your life, and stand by you long after closing.

If you want to understand what truly separates one title provider from another, take a moment to read our guide:

“Due Diligence Deep Dive: How to Choose a New York Title Insurance Provider,” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate. We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

Hallmark Abstract Service

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

New York City: (646) 741-6101

Long Island: (516) 741-4723

Subscribe To The Hallmark Abstract Service Channels Below...

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Subscribe to our Substack articles here.

Questions or Comments?

Please contact us at info@hallmarkabstractllc.com or (516) 741-4723

Reciprocal Tariffs...U.S.-Canada, And The Cost Of A Quid Pro Quo!

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 13:02:54 GMT

The U.S. Imposes Tariffs Against Canada, And Canada Immediately Imposes Tariffs Of Its Own!

While tariffs with a political purpose can come and go quickly, they definitely have an impact when they exist and even when they are merely threatened.

Inflation, interest rates, mortgage rates, construction costs, and more can all be affected.

The U.S. Move

On Saturday, the U.S. officially implemented a 50% tariff on about $25 billion of Canadian imports.
The Products: The 50% tax includes dairy, alcohol, steel, aluminum, timber, auto parts, agricultural goods, and manufactured items.
The Breakdown: Negotiators had been working toward a compromise to lower tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos. It sounded like an agreement had been reached, but at the deadline, negotiations collapsed.

The Canadian Counter-Move

Matching Tariffs: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada is suspending trade talks and will match the U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar.
When Do They Go Into Effect: Canada’s tariffs are scheduled to take effect on September 8, 2026.
US Sectors They Hit: Canada will target American steel, dairy, appliances, electronics, pulp/paper, and agricultural equipment.

What Are The Potential Consequences Of Canadian Tariffs?

Economy

Higher input costs for U.S. manufacturers reliant on Canadian steel, aluminum, energy, and auto parts.
Canada will likely have an impact on the bottom line of U.S. exporters
The potential for lower growth in sectors like autos, agriculture, and construction materials as costs rise.
Uncertainty! A word that makes planning extremely difficult for corporate leaders.

Inflation

Upward pressure on prices for goods with Canadian components like lumber, energy, potash, aluminum, autos, dairy, impacting both producer and consumer price indexes,
Builders and manufacturers may likely have to pass costs through to consumers, which will keep inflation “stickier”,
It will complicate the Fed’s rate decision-making.

Consumer Confidence

Price uncertainty on everyday goods can only compromise confidence as budgets become more difficult to make,
Households may pull back on big-ticket purchases when future costs feel unpredictable,
Mixed signals when tariffs are threatened, then paused, can create a “wait and see” mentality that itself slows spending. No one likes uncertainty!

Real Estate

Lumber and building materials tariffs directly raise new-construction costs, worsening housing affordability and supply shortages,
Higher costs for cement, electronics, and other Canadian building components add to renovation and development budgets,
Builders may slow new projects if margins get squeezed, further constraining housing inventory.

Mortgage Rates

Tariffs, in addition to all of the other factors impacting interest rates, in our opinion will keep the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates elevated (The Point Of No Return For Lower Interest Rates? What It Means For Property Buyers),
Increased economic uncertainty can also widen the spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates, as lenders price in more risk (The Mortgage Spread: What It Is, Why It Exists, And Why It Narrows and Widens).

______________________________________________________________

Thank you for reading The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack.

We welcome your thoughts, questions, and topic ideas on real estate, mortgages, title insurance, or broader market trends.

If you are buying real estate in New York, understanding the differences between title insurance providers is essential.

Read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance”

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate… We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(516) 741-4723

About the Author

Michael is also host of the Do You Ever Wonder podcast and serves as Board Chair of the Heroes To Heroes Foundation, supporting combat veterans transitioning to civilian life.

The Point Of No Return For Lower Interest Rates? What It Means For Property Buyers

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 11:11:02 GMT

(Note: After this article was published, the Fed, in a move designed to bring long-maturity Treasury yields down, announced that it would increase the size of its government debt repurchases by “at least double”. Currently, the 30-year Treasury is down 9 basis points to 5.195%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is down 5.3 basis points to 4.653%. Will this drop in yields last? We’re not sure, but the issues discussed below have not gone away!)

Also, after this article was published, the national debt surpassed $40 trillion.

Are We Approaching A Tipping Point: When Will the Fed Lose Control of Interest Rates?

Back in January 2026, we offered the following opinion concerning interest rates and mortgage rates…

With a national debt of $38.7 trillion, a budget deficit as wide as the eye can see, and dysfunction in Washington that continues unfettered, if you were an investor in U.S. Treasury bonds, would you increase the risk premium demanded before you invest?

Now that we’re approaching September 2026, is everything the same, has it gotten better, or has it gotten worse?

National Debt…$38.7 trillion then, $39.9 trillion now, and it will be much higher by the time this article is published, growing at a rate of $7.91 billion each day.

Federal Budget Deficit…Back in January the federal budget deficit was as far as the eye can see. Today, the naked eye can no longer see it, as it is currently $1.8 trillion 10 months into the fiscal year, and in an economy that is supposedly growing!

Political Dysfunction in Washington…Bad back then, and now, watching the desire for vastly expanded government spending out of some of the candidates running for office, much worse now.

What Could Push The U.S. Over The Fiscal Tipping Point?

Some Of The Conditions, Triggers, and How Close We Already Are

🔴 First, What Does ‘The Tipping Point’ Actually Mean?

The Federal Reserve controls the federal funds rate but does NOT directly control the long end of the yield curve, like the 10-year and 30-year yields that determine mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, consumer credit costs, and the price of virtually every long-term asset in the economy
The long end of the yield curve is controlled by the ‘smart money’ in the bond market, comprised of millions of investors worldwide making independent decisions about what yield they require to lend the U.S. government money for 10 or 30 years
The tipping point occurs when, in the judgement of the ‘smart money’ concerning risk, inflation, and fiscal sustainability, yields move up to levels that the Fed cannot control.
A panic among the rank and file American and investors from around the world could hit the value of assets and threaten an interest-debt spiral and financial crisis. The higher and faster growing the U.S. debt burden, the more likely and more consequential such a crisis would be!
Despite the warning signs, U.S. debt likely hasn’t yet reached a tipping point. Factors to key on for this include the reserve currency status of the US dollar, the depth and size of the Treasury market, and investor trust that the US debt they buy is money good! But, given the loss of our AAA rating, among other factors such as the ones mentioned above, the trust may be eroding just a bit.

🔴 Point #1 — The Debt Spiral: When Interest Costs Exceed Economic Growth

A more troubling tipping point could arrive when the blended interest rate on government borrowing exceeds economic growth.
If this happens, the debt-to-GDP ratio rises automatically (currently over 124%), even without any new spending, which we know that there is. The government must borrow more simply to pay the interest on what it already owes, that becomes a self-reinforcing spiral with no natural stopping point
The CBO’s forecast shows the economy will expand slower than its prior view, with nominal GDP growth cooling from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.9% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, while the average interest rate the Treasury pays is projected to rise from 3.316% today to 3.9% by 2036
The gap between borrowing cost and growth rate is closing. When it inverts, the spiral, and the trouble, begin.
If the 10-year yield rose and stayed above 6%, it would likely push annual interest costs above $1.5 trillion by 2028!
Historically, when interest costs breached 3% of GDP, investors demand a higher risk premium. The sad fact is that the US is currently at 3.3%! As a reminder of what can happen, remember the PIIGS - ‘Hopefully, The U.S. Isn’t Turning Into One Of The PIIGS’.

🔴 Point 2 — When Creditors Lose Confidence

For decades, the United States Treasury market was the gold standard of the global financial system. U.S. government bonds were considered to be money good, and the short end of the curve was considered to be the risk-free rate. But this position is not guaranteed. Currently, we are more likely to be considered the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet.
Consumer prices moving higher, and the inflation that goes along with it, erodes the purchasing power of fixed interest payments.
If bond investors decide that the real return on U.S. Treasuries is insufficient, they will demand higher yields to continue buying.
Our outstanding debt continues to increase, and proposals by some candidates for Congress would send it soaring if implemented. We won’t know the tolerance of investors to buy with incessant new bond issuance the norm until it’s too late.

🔴 Point 3 — What Happens When The World Stops Buying?

Foreign buyers of our debt have been looking elsewhere…Foreign investors currently hold $7.8 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, down from a peak of $8.4 trillion in 2022. The foreign share of U.S. Treasury debt stands at 21.5%, which is a decline from 29% in 2015
Japan holds approximately $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, moving lower as interest rates at home approach 3% (currently 2.955%) (Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield Over 2% WAS A Big Deal! Now, We’re Approaching 3%!).
China has reduced its holdings by $310 billion since 2019, reflecting diversification, geopolitical tensions, and a desire to insulate from U.S. sanctions risk
When foreign buyers stop buying, the U.S. needs to attract domestic buyers at higher yields.

🔴 Point 4 — With Inflation The Fed Can’t Cut Without Making Things Worse

The following article from April this year basically tells this story…’Financial Showdown...When The Fed Cuts Rates And The 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises’.

🔴 Point 5 — There’s An Insatiable Appetite To Borrow, With Declining Demand

The U.S. government is issuing new bonds at a pace of approximately $158 billion per month.
The One Big Beautiful Bill’s $5.2 trillion in projected revenue reductions and the Pentagon’s $1.5 trillion 2027 budget request will add trillions more in future bond issuance.
Every dollar of supply will require a buyer willing to accept the current yield. If not, the yield needs to rise until a buyer is found.

🔴 Point 6 — Geopolitics…When S..T Beyond Your Control Happens

The Iran war, spiking oil prices (inflationary), supply chains affected by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz (inflationary), and slower economic growth (stagflationary) happening all at the same time.
Should the Fed raise rates to fight inflation, or lower rates to spur economic growth? Not an enviable position!
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1983 (America’s Oil Reserve Is at a 40-Year Low. Here’s What Happens Next...). This tool for controlling oil prices is pretty much out of the toolbox!

🔴 Point 7 — Could The Dollar Lose Reserve Currency Status?

One of the most important factors holding off a tipping point from being reached is our reserve currency status. We noted the risk back in January of this year, in the article ‘U.S. Reserve Currency Status...Is It At Any Risk’.
Reserve currency status is not permanent or guaranteed. In fact, the dollar’s share of global central bank reserves has declined from 73% in 2001 to about 58% today, representing serious erosion!
What would be next? If the dollar loses its reserve currency status, demand for U.S. Treasuries would drop, and yields would have to rise to attract buyers.

🔴 What Would The Tipping Point Look Like If We Got There?

Yields on long-term Treasuries would begin to rise faster than a Fed meeting rate decision can explain. The rise would be driven by the ‘smart money’ rather than monetary policy.
Treasury auctions begin showing consistently weak demand.
The yield curve steepens dramatically, because the Fed has some control over the short end of the curve, but not long bonds.
The Fed would have two bad choices: It could resume quantitative easing and risk hyperinflation, or it could allow yields to spike and risk a financial crisis and recession.
Either bad choice would result in bad outcomes, which is why it’s called a ‘tipping point‘!

🔴 So How Close Are We To This Tipping Point?

We are not at the tipping point today. The dollar’s reserve currency status, the depth of the Treasury market, and the Fed’s remaining credibility are buffers. But several of the conditions are in place simultaneously in a way that has no modern precedent:

$39.5 trillion in national debt growing at $158 billion per month
Debt-to-GDP at 124% — projected to hit 136% by 2036
Interest costs are 3.3% of GDP. 3% is the historical threshold where creditor confidence erodes
Foreign buying of US debt is declining…Japan, China, and others are reducing Treasury exposure
Record new supply is going to compete with declining demand
Above-target inflation limits the Fed’s ability to cut rates or go back to quantitative easing
Geopolitical disruption of oil prices, inflationary for sure. that releases from the SPR can no longer fully offset
Japans 10-year bond is approaching 3%… this is the clearest signal that the carry trade is ending

While reaching the tipping point is not inevitable, the potential is very real!

The bottom line is whether Washington will ever have the political will to address the significant fiscal issues before the bond market does it for them.

Using history as a guide, Washington will kick the can down the road until the road runs out and we, the people, are left holding the bag!

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

If you have any thoughts or opinions about this article, ideas for what we should write about in the future, or any questions concerning the real estate market, whether commercial or residential, mortgages, title insurance, or anything else, please let us know using the contact information below.

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

Michael Haltman is the CEO of Hallmark Abstract Service, a New York–based title insurance firm specializing in both residential and commercial real estate transactions. With decades of experience spanning Wall Street, fixed income markets, and real estate finance, Michael brings a practical, real-world perspective to today’s economic and housing market discussions.

Before founding Hallmark Abstract Service in 2008, Michael’s career included roles as the principal of a commercial real estate mortgage lending company, a municipal bond trader and analyst, a fixed-income strategist, and a proprietary equity trader. This background provides a unique lens through which he analyzes interest rates, credit markets, housing trends, and the broader forces shaping real estate activity in New York and nationwide.

Michael is also the host of the Do You Ever Wonder Podcast, where he interviews professionals across real estate, finance, law, business, and more to explore the ideas and trends influencing markets, decision-making, and all aspects of life.

In addition to his business work, Michael serves as Board Chair of the Heroes To Heroes Foundation, a nationally recognized nonprofit dedicated to helping combat veterans suffering from moral injury reintegrate into civilian life.

Through his writing, Michael aims to make complex financial, economic, and real estate topics understandable, practical, and relevant to investors, homeowners, attorneys, and business professionals alike.

Nobody Buys Their Jersey...But Quarterbacks Know They Can't Win Without Them

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:17:10 GMT

Football And Real Estate…Fall Must Be On The Way!

What’s better than a good analogy that ties the start of the college and NFL seasons to real estate transactions and title insurance? Such a smooth transition!

So let’s do it. In football, particularly on offense, you have what are known as the ‘skill’ positions. These are quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers, although truth be told, every other position requires a great deal of skill as well.

In a real estate transaction, the ‘skill’ position would likely be considered the attorney on either side of the deal.

For the skill players on the football field to succeed, the less glamorous and often anonymous work is being done in the trenches by the lineman, where the blocking and tackling take place.

In a real estate transaction, the title insurance company executes the critical functions necessary to get a deal to the closing table, while focusing on protecting the buyer to the utmost degree. Often, buyers are unaware of the work being done by the title insurance company behind the scenes, but it is critical nonetheless.

In New York, it’s common practice for the buyer’s attorney to choose the title insurance company used, but what many property buyers don’t realize is that they have the right to choose their title company. Read ‘In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!’

Digging A Little Deeper

Every September, fans across the country buy jerseys, argue over the draft and the trades made by their favorite team. They will make predictions about which teams will make the playoffs and then get to the Super Bowl. Of course, they also talk about the skill players and the head coach, particularly if it's his first year.

But, typically, nobody talks about the offensive line beyond saying they hope it’s better than last year (I’m a suffering New York Jets fan).

The O-line players’ jerseys are generally not best sellers, and typically few of their posters hang on fans’ walls.

And yet, ask any quarterback in the NFL, college, or pee wee, and they will tell you that the offensive line is the most important group of players on the field.

Without them, nothing else works. The most talented quarterback in the league becomes a liability behind a bad offensive line. The most sophisticated passing scheme in football collapses when the pocket collapses. The playbook doesn’t matter if the quarterback is on the ground.

The bottom line is that the offensive line doesn’t typically make a specific play that wins games, but they make the plays that make winning the game possible.

Your Real Estate Transaction Has an Offensive Line

In a New York real estate transaction, the roles are easy to assign.

The quarterback is your attorney who is calling the plays, managing the transaction, and making the decisions that determine whether the deal gets done and gets done right. In New York, an attorney state where both buyer and seller retain independent legal counsel, the attorney is at the center of everything.

The wide receiver is your real estate agent. They are the one who found the property, negotiated the deal, and made the catch that got you to the closing table in the first place. They get the credit and a big check at the closing. They earned it.

The head coach is your lender calling the plays from the sideline, setting the parameters within which everyone else operates, and ultimately deciding whether the drive succeeds with a loan approval.

The offensive line? The critical piece of any real estate transaction that few notice, that nobody celebrates, that does its job invisibly and completely on every single play so that everyone else can do theirs?

That is your title company.

So, ‘How Does A New York Title Insurance Provider EARN Inclusion On An Attorney’s A-Team?’

Read the article above to find out!

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

NYC Air Rights: The Down Low on What's Above Your Building

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 14:34:01 GMT

The Opportunities In Real Estate Can Be Endless! How About Air Rights?

Have you ever looked at the New York City skyline and wondered if the air above those buildings could be worth millions of dollars?

In NYC real estate, the answer can actually be yes, if an owner knows how to navigate the complex world of zoning, mergers, and transfer paths.

Last year we wrote the article ‘Air Rights: The Potential Untapped Gold Mine for New York City Co-op and Condo Boards!’, but the information in the article below, which was written by Ed Winslow, goes to a depth that anyone interested in the subject of air rights needs to read!

My friend Ed Winslow is a seasoned commercial real estate broker, author, platform builder, and co-founder of BrokerOpinionOfValue.com. He has put together a comprehensive guide on air rights, providing a complete, soup-to-nuts tutorial on everything you need to know about how unused development rights are valued and how they actually get sold!

Ed is also the creator of the marketing and business-development platform Proof Stacking™, which he turned into a book with the foreword written by Bob Knakal.

NYC Air Rights Valuation: What Unused Development Rights Are Worth and How They Are Sold

By Ed Winslow, Co-Founder, BrokerOpinionOfValue.com (ejw@creteventures.com, 203-912-7244)

Air rights are the unused, zoning-permitted development capacity of a property — the difference between the maximum floor area a zoning lot is allowed and the floor area actually built. In New York City, that unused capacity can sometimes be sold or transferred to a nearby site, which makes it a real and separately valuable component of a commercial property’s worth.
The word “sometimes” carries most of the weight in that sentence. A property can hold 60,000 square feet of unused floor area on paper and have no buyer, no legal transfer path, and no value. Another property can hold 20,000 square feet and sell every foot of it. The difference is not the size of the inventory. It is whether a specific nearby project can legally receive the rights and profitably build with them.
This guide explains how unused development rights are calculated, how they are transferred in New York City, what changed under City of Yes for Housing Opportunity, and how a broker opinion of value should treat air rights in a sale, estate, tax, or litigation context.

What are air rights in commercial real estate?

Air rights are the real-property rights to use, control, or develop the space above a parcel of land. In commercial real estate practice, the term almost always refers to a site’s unused zoning floor area — not to unlimited ownership of the sky above the roof.
Zoning controls the size, height, and bulk of what can be built on a lot. When an existing building is smaller than what zoning permits, the gap is commonly called unused development rights, excess FAR, or air rights. Subject to local rules, an owner with that gap can generally do one of three things:

Build an addition or a replacement project that uses the capacity on site.
Sell or transfer the capacity to an eligible nearby lot.
Preserve it — often through a recorded restriction — to protect light, views, or future redevelopment value.

Air rights vs. unused development rights vs. TDRs

These terms are used loosely in the market and precisely in the Zoning Resolution. The distinction matters in a valuation.

Unused development rights is an inventory measurement. It is arithmetic: permitted floor area minus built floor area minus prior transfers.
Transferable development rights (TDRs) are a subset of that inventory — the portion a specific zoning mechanism actually allows to move to another lot.
Air rights is the market shorthand that covers both, plus a range of easements and volumetric interests that have nothing to do with FAR.

A property’s unused development rights and its transferable development rights are rarely the same number. Treating them as identical is the most common error in owner-side air rights expectations.

What air rights do not include

Owning unused development rights does not confer:

A right to build to any height. FAR, height limits, setbacks, bulk controls, environmental review, and the building code all still apply.
A right to overhang or obstruct a neighboring parcel without a valid easement or agreement.
Any control over navigable airspace, which is federally regulated.
An automatic right to transfer. Transfer authority is highly local and transaction-specific.

How do you calculate unused development rights?

The NYC Department of Buildings defines unused development rights as the difference between the maximum floor area permitted on a zoning lot and the floor area that has actually been built. Read about how to calculate unused development rights.

Unused development rights = maximum permitted zoning floor area − existing zoning floor area − previously transferred floor area

Worked example

Assume a 10,000-square-foot zoning lot in a district permitting 6.0 FAR:

Why zoning floor area is not assessor square footage

Zoning floor area is a defined measurement under the Zoning Resolution. It is not the gross building area on a tax record, not the rentable area in a lease abstract, and not the number on a listing. Cellar space, mechanical space, and certain other areas may be excluded; other areas may be included that an owner would not intuitively count.
Any credible air rights analysis begins with a zoning floor area calculation by an architect or zoning consultant, plus a title and zoning-lot history review. Screening from public data is appropriate for prospecting. It is not appropriate for pricing.

How much are air rights worth in NYC?

There is no citywide price for air rights. Value is set almost entirely by what a specific receiving site can do with the incremental floor area.
The buyer of development rights is not acquiring a view or a volume of sky. The buyer is acquiring the legal ability to build additional square footage on a project it already controls. What it will pay is a function of the residual value of that additional square footage:

Value of the rights ≈ (revenue from the incremental floor area) − (hard costs + soft costs + financing + carrying costs + profit requirement) on that same increment

This is why air rights are quoted in dollars per buildable square foot rather than as a lump sum, and why the same 40,000 square feet can be worth a great deal on one block and nothing on the next.

What drives price per buildable square foot

Receiving-site product economics. Projected sellout or stabilized NOI from the added floor area in that submarket.
Physical deployability. Whether the added FAR can actually be built after height and setback rules, tower coverage, lot coverage, light and air, dwelling unit factor, loading, and parking requirements. Floor area that cannot be efficiently configured is worth less than floor area that can.
Competition among sources. Whether the receiving developer has one candidate grantor or four.
Timing and process risk. A certification is faster and more predictable than a special permit. Process risk is priced.
Regulatory obligations attached to the increment, including inclusionary housing requirements where applicable.

Development rights commonly trade at a discount to fee-simple land in the same submarket on a per-buildable-square-foot basis, because the buyer receives density without receiving a site, and because the transfer carries process and documentation risk. The size of that discount is a market question that has to be answered with current comparable transfers — not with a rule of thumb.

The cap that surprises owners

Consider the 40,000-square-foot inventory above, held by an individual landmark. Assume the most logical receiving lot has a maximum permitted floor area of 100,000 zoning square feet.
Under the landmark transfer certification, that receiving lot can generally accept an increase of 20 percent — 20,000 square feet. The owner’s 40,000-square-foot inventory does not have one buyer. It has, at best, two, and the second one may not exist.

A valuation that multiplies 40,000 square feet by a market rate per buildable square foot will overstate the asset, sometimes by half.

How can air rights be transferred in New York City?

There are four principal pathways. Identifying the correct one is the first substantive step in any air rights assignment, because each carries different geography, approval process, caps, and cost.

Zoning lot merger

What is a zoning lot merger? The most common route for ordinary, non-landmarked property.
Two or more adjoining tax lots are treated as a single zoning lot for zoning purposes. The combined lot’s permitted floor area can then be allocated across it, allowing the developer to place more of that floor area on its parcel. Ownership stays separate; recorded zoning-lot documents govern the allocation, and the source parcel permanently gives up the floor area allocated elsewhere.
A zoning lot is not the same as a tax lot. A zoning lot may comprise multiple tax lots under separate ownership. That distinction is what makes the merger an as-of-right density tool rather than a sale of land.

Landmark TDR under ZR 75-42

Landmark TDR under ZR 75-42 is available where the granting lot contains a designated New York City landmark building or structure. Cemeteries, statues, monuments, and bridges are excluded from the program.
The transfer moves a defined amount of unused floor area from the landmark granting lot to a qualifying receiving lot within a defined surrounding area. The granting and receiving owners apply jointly to the Chair of the City Planning Commission. The application includes zoning calculations and site plans for both sites, a continuing maintenance program for the landmark, and a report from the Landmarks Preservation Commission concerning that program.

Key limits

The transferable base equals district-permitted floor area less existing floor area and prior transfers. Certain zoning bonuses are excluded from the transferable inventory.
The certification route generally caps the receiving lot’s increase at 20 percent above its maximum permitted floor area. In commercial or manufacturing districts where the maximum non-residential FAR is 15.0 or greater, the cap is 30 percent.
The transfer instrument and notices of restriction must be executed and recorded with the City Register before the Chair certifies compliance to the Department of Buildings.
A separate certification filing is required for each independent receiving lot.
The transfer is irrevocable. Once completed, the granting lot’s future development capacity is permanently reduced — even if the landmark designation is later removed, the structure is destroyed, or the site is redeveloped.

ZR 74-79 special permit

ZR 74-79 special permit is required for landmark transfers that exceed the 30 percent increment in qualifying high-density commercial or manufacturing districts, and for transfers requiring bulk relief beyond what the certification route accommodates. This is a discretionary City Planning Commission action rather than a ministerial one, with corresponding time, cost, and outcome risk.
Related: ZR 75-24 permits the Commission to authorize certain bulk modifications other than FAR in conjunction with a 75-42 transfer, with height modifications limited to a 25 percent increase over the applicable maximum.

Special district transfer programs

Certain special purpose districts establish their own transfer geography and procedures — including areas of Midtown and the Theater Subdistrict, East Midtown, Lower Manhattan, and Hudson Yards. Where a special district program applies, the Zoning Resolution text defines exactly which granting and receiving sites qualify. These mechanisms can move rights farther than a conventional merger, but only within the mapped district or designated subarea.

What did City of Yes change about landmark air rights?

City of Yes for Housing Opportunity, adopted December 5, 2024, materially changed the landmark development rights transfer program. It did not create a citywide air rights market.

What changed

Expanded receiving geography. Transfers from an individual landmark may now reach any lot on the landmark’s tax block, lots across the street from that block, and lots at the next intersection — rather than being confined to immediately adjoining lots.
Certification instead of ULURP. Many transfers that previously required a discretionary special permit subject to full public review can now proceed by City Planning Commission Chair certification, which is faster and more predictable.
Broader eligibility. Individual landmarks located within historic districts became eligible to transfer development rights.

What did not change

Why this matters commercially

The reform meaningfully widened the buyer pool for individually landmarked, underbuilt properties. Before, the practical buyer universe was often a single adjacent owner, which is not a market — it is a negotiation with one counterparty and no leverage. A block-wide and across-the-street receiving area can turn that into a competitive process, which is where price improvement comes from.
For non-landmarked property, the effect is indirect but real. City of Yes amended the citywide Zoning Resolution in ways that can change a source site’s permitted density, improve a receiving site’s ability to physically deploy added floor area, and alter the marginal value a developer assigns to purchased capacity. Any air rights study prepared on pre-December 2024 assumptions should be re-run.

Zoning lot merger vs. landmark TDR: which one applies?

The practical rule: the label “air rights deal” is not enough to underwrite. Confirm whether the transaction is a zoning lot merger, a ZR 75-42 certification, a ZR 74-79 special permit, or a special district program, because the permitted geography, approval process, timing, and usable value differ substantially.

Which NYC properties have the most valuable unused air rights?

Any property can hold unused air rights if its existing zoning floor area is below the maximum permitted on its zoning lot. In practice, the strongest candidates are underbuilt properties in high-density districts.

Common candidate property types

One- to four-story commercial buildings on avenues and major retail corridors where zoning supports substantially larger buildings.
Older walk-up multifamily buildings in neighborhoods that were later upzoned.
Single-story retail and bank buildings, including former pharmacies, fast-food sites, showrooms, and supermarkets.
Parking garages and surface parking lots, which may carry little or no existing zoning floor area against a large permitted FAR.
Warehouses, industrial buildings, and low-scale flex properties in rezoned or transitioning areas such as parts of Long Island City, Downtown Brooklyn, Gowanus, Williamsburg, and the Far West Side.
Houses of worship — churches, synagogues, and religious schools — often low-density uses on comparatively large lots in strong development markets.
Schools, community facilities, hospitals, and nonprofit-owned buildings that predate the current zoning envelope.
Theaters, cultural institutions, and historic structures where preserving the existing building makes full on-site redevelopment impractical.
Individually landmarked buildings with unused floor area and a qualifying receiving site.
Large sites with multiple tax lots, where an underbuilt parcel can contribute capacity to a denser adjoining parcel.

The four factors that separate a candidate from a transaction

Low existing FAR relative to the lot’s permitted maximum.
A development location with residual value — a submarket where added residential, office, hotel, or mixed-use floor area is worth building.
A legal transfer pathway — an adjoining buyer for a merger, or eligibility for a landmark or special district mechanism.
A buildable receiving envelope — a developer that can physically use the added FAR after all bulk constraints.

A two-story building in a 10-FAR district is a far stronger candidate than a twelve-story building on a comparable lot. But the first three factors can all be present and the deal can still fail on the fourth.

Why unused FAR does not always sell

Owners are frequently told a number and hear it as a price. These are the recurring reasons unused rights command nothing:

No adjoining or otherwise eligible receiving site. The inventory exists; the geography does not.
The neighbor already built. A nearby development has consumed its available FAR and has no use for more.
The receiver cannot fit the density. Height, setback, lot coverage, and light-and-air constraints prevent the added floor area from becoming marketable product.
Prior encumbrances. Zoning-lot declarations, earlier air rights sales, easements, or condominium documents have already restricted the property.
The increment is too small. Legal, survey, zoning, and transaction costs consume the proceeds.
The submarket does not support incremental development. Land and sellout economics do not clear.

An owner is better served by a clear negative early than by a marketing process built on an inventory number.

How do houses of worship sell air rights?

Religious institutions sell unused zoning floor area the same way other owners do. The institution is not selling airspace; it is monetizing the gap between its building’s existing zoning floor area and the maximum permitted on its zoning lot.

Two considerations specific to institutional sellers

Governance. Religious corporations and nonprofits frequently require board, trustee, congregational, denominational, lender, or court-related approvals before a sale can close. This should be mapped at the outset, not discovered at contract.
Use of proceeds. Proceeds are commonly applied to capital repairs, restoration, endowment, debt reduction, or mission purposes, subject to governing documents and applicable nonprofit law. In landmark transfers, proceeds are often placed in an endowment whose income funds the required continuing maintenance.

Can air rights be sold anywhere in NYC?

No. This is the single most persistent misconception in the market.

A low-rise retail building in Chelsea cannot sell its unused FAR to a tower site in Long Island City. Identify the legal transfer path first, then search only within its permitted geography. A prospect list built citywide will overstate what is marketable.

What does an air rights transaction look like start to finish?

Zoning due diligence. Confirm current zoning, permitted FAR, existing zoning floor area, zoning-lot history, special district overlays, landmark status, prior transfers, and recorded restrictive declarations.
Establish eligibility. Identify the exact transfer authority and confirm that both parties satisfy the location, use, contiguity, and cap requirements.
Underwrite receiving-site utility. Determine how much of the incremental FAR the buyer can actually build after height and setback, tower coverage, dwelling unit factor, loading, parking, affordability, and code constraints. Nominal square footage and usable square footage are different assets.
Price the rights. Negotiate per transferred or usable zoning square foot, against the receiving project’s residual — not against the grantor’s nominal inventory.
Contract and document. Purchase and sale agreement, transfer instrument, zoning-lot declaration or notices of restriction, title work, survey, and any easements or access agreements.
Approvals and recording. Certification, special permit, or as-of-right documentation as applicable; record the instruments; proceed to DOB filings and permits.

How air rights affect a broker opinion of value

For an underbuilt property in a high-density district, air rights are not a footnote. They can be the majority of the asset’s value, and they are the component most often stated wrong.
A broker opinion of value that addresses air rights should:

Separate the three questions. Available zoning floor area, legally transferable floor area, and market value to a specific receiving site are three different findings. Reporting them as one number is where valuations go wrong.
State air rights value as contingent until zoning counsel, a land use consultant, an architect, and a survey review confirm both the granting-site inventory and the receiving-site capacity. NYC zoning can permit an FAR transfer while bulk controls prevent the receiver from realizing it.
Identify the transfer mechanism by name, and price only within its permitted geography.
Apply the applicable increment cap per receiving lot, and note whether the full inventory requires more than one buyer.
Support pricing with comparable development rights transfers, not with land comparables used uncritically as a proxy.

This matters most in the contexts where the number gets tested by someone else: estate and gift tax reporting, partnership buyouts, matrimonial and other litigation, tax certiorari, eminent domain, and pre-sale positioning. A well-documented, appropriately qualified opinion survives scrutiny. An inventory number multiplied by a market rate does not.

Frequently asked questions about NYC air rights

Can I sell my building’s air rights?

Possibly. It depends on whether your property has unused zoning floor area, whether a legal mechanism authorizes transferring it, and whether an eligible nearby site can use it. All three must be true.

How much are my air rights worth?

There is no citywide rate. Value derives from what a specific receiving developer can profitably build with the added floor area, expressed as a price per buildable square foot. Two properties with identical unused FAR on different blocks can be worth very different amounts, and one of them can be worth nothing.

How do I find out how much unused FAR my property has?

Start with lot area, current zoning, and permitted FAR to estimate maximum floor area, then subtract existing zoning floor area and any prior transfers. Confirm the result with an architect or zoning consultant using zoning floor area — not tax record square footage — together with a title and zoning-lot history review.

Can I sell development rights to my neighbor?

That is the most common structure. Where the parcels adjoin and can be treated as one zoning lot, a zoning lot merger allows the neighbor’s project to use floor area attributable to your parcel, with recorded documents permanently restricting your future use of it.

Is an air rights appraisal the same as a broker opinion of value?

No. An appraisal is a certified valuation prepared by a licensed appraiser under USPAP. A broker opinion of value is a written estimate of market value prepared by a licensed commercial broker, based on comparable transactions and current market conditions. A BOV is typically faster and less costly, and is used where a formal appraisal is not required. Some purposes — certain lending, litigation, and tax matters — require an appraisal.

Do air rights expire?

The unused capacity does not expire on a clock, but it is not permanent either. Rezoning can increase or reduce permitted floor area. Building on your own site consumes it. And once transferred, it is gone irrevocably — the granting lot’s future development capacity is reduced by that amount even if circumstances later change.

If I sell my air rights, can I still redevelop later?

Only up to the reduced capacity. The recorded restriction limits what can later be built on the granting lot. This is why a sale should be evaluated against the property’s own long-term redevelopment plan, not just against the check.

What is price per buildable square foot?

The unit convention for pricing development rights: total consideration divided by the number of transferable zoning square feet. It allows comparison against land sales and other transfers in the same submarket — provided the comparison accounts for whether the floor area can actually be built.

Get a broker opinion of value for a property with unused development rights

BrokerOpinionOfValue.com

America's Oil Reserve Is at a 40-Year Low. Here's What Happens Next...

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:21:02 GMT

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, is at Multi-Decade Lows: Its Original Purpose and Potential Depletion Ramifications!

You will often hear the acronym SPR, or the full term Strategic Petroleum Reserve, mentioned in the news or in a speech by a President facing high gas prices, used as a tool to reduce the pain at the pump by releasing oil into the marketplace.

This lower price achieved from any release is typically a temporary band-aid that some might cynically consider to have been made with politics in mind, and not why the SPR was created in the first place.

Of course, the release is understandable from a PR perspective, as voters dislike the impact that filling their cars and trucks at high prices has on their budgets.

Whatever the reason a release is done or not done, the SPR is big, with an authorized capacity of 714 million barrels, currently sitting at 305 million barrels. The average number of barrels in the SPR over 30 years is 625 million.

So what exactly is the SPR and why was it created?

The Original Purpose of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

Genesis and Legislative Mandate: Established by President Gerald Ford through the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) of 1975, the SPR was created in direct response to the 1973–1974 Arab oil embargo, which caused severe fuel shortages and economic disruption across the United States. I remember driving by gas stations on the high school bus, where lines would often be around the block, with people only being able to get gas on odd or even days.
National Security and Supply Protection: The core objective was to establish an underground stockpile of up to 1 billion barrels of crude oil to protect the U.S. economy, defense readiness, and foreign policy independence against international supply interruptions.
Treaty Obligations: The SPR fulfills U.S. commitments as a founding member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which requires member nations to maintain emergency oil stocks equal to at least 90 days of net imports.
Emergency Stabilization Tool: The reserve was designed to serve strictly as a shock absorber during major crises such as foreign wars, severe natural disasters (e.g., Hurricane Katrina), or physical import blockades, and not as a tool for trying to push prices lower.

Now That The SPR Is At Four-Decade-Low Levels, How could It Impact Our Economy?

Loss of Shock Absorption Capacity: With reserves sitting near 40-year lows, the U.S. government loses its primary mechanism to offset sudden global supply shocks, leaving domestic energy markets directly exposed to geopolitical escalations and production cuts.
Inflation Risk: Energy serves as an input cost across almost all sectors. Oil price spikes rapidly pass through to gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, petrochemicals, freight, and consumer products, driving up the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI).
Higher-for-Longer Interest Rates: Energy-driven inflation shocks complicate central bank policy. Persistent inflation pressures compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher benchmark interest rates for longer, elevating yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries.
Suppressing Economic Growth: High fuel costs act as a tax on both businesses and households. Increased corporate operating costs combined with reduced discretionary consumer spending slow economic growth.
Erosion of Consumer Confidence: Retail fuel prices are one of the most visible daily economic indicators for consumers. We drive by gas stations and see it every day. Higher-for-longer gas prices negatively impact consumer sentiment and curtail spending across retail, entertainment, and travel.
Residential Real Estate Stagnation: An extended high-interest-rate environment keeps mortgage rates elevated, maintaining the “lock-in effect” for existing homeowners, keeps housing turnover low, and already hurting homebuyer affordability will worsen.
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Underwriting Pressure:
- Operating Expenses: Higher energy costs directly inflate utility bills for commercial properties, compressing Net Operating Income (NOI). This has been increasingly obvious in New York City rent-stabilized apartment buildings, where small allowable rent increases, and now 0% rent increases, are bumping up against a spike in utility costs along with an increase in other expenses like insurance and taxes.
- Cap Rates & Valuations: Sustained mortgage costs keep capitalization rates high, resulting in lower property valuations and slowing transaction activity across office, retail, and industrial sectors.
- Construction & Renovation: Petroleum-based materials (asphalt, insulation, roofing, PVC) and transportation fees increase, squeezing margins on ground-up developments and property renovations.

Fiscal Burden of Rebuilding the SPR: Bringing the SPR to its average fill rate would require a significant federal capital outlay if done at today’s prices. So what would it cost?

Target Fill Level - Current Fill Level = Barrels Needed

625,000,000 barrels} - 298,700,000 barrels} = 326,300,000

Total Refill Cost

326,300,000 barrels X $83.50\barrel = $27,246,050,000

So What Does A Depleted SPR Mean?

The drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to multi-decade lows creates a significant amount of vulnerability. Originally built as a shield against global supply shocks has instead been drawn down to manage domestic cost pressures. This alters the risk profile for investors, consumers, and real estate professionals alike.

A Structural Shift in Macro Risk: With the national cushion depleted, any future geopolitical shock, Middle East supply disruption, or major Gulf Coast hurricane will transmit directly into domestic pump prices without a government buffer to absorb the initial blow. Of course, we are now producing much of our own oil, but oil is a global commodity with a price that’s global as well.
Sustained Headwinds for Interest Rates: As long as energy markets remain exposed to sudden price shocks, the Federal Reserve will face persistent inflationary pressure. This “higher-for-longer” monetary reality keeps long-term borrowing costs elevated across the board.
Real Estate Market Implications: High interest rates will continue to freeze residential inventory through the lock-in effect, while commercial real estate valuations, particularly across capital-sensitive assets, will remain under pressure from elevated cap rates and higher property operating expenses.
The Long-Term Capital Drag: Refilling the SPR will not be quick or cheap. The eventual fiscal capital needed to repurchase millions of barrels will create an ongoing structural demand floor under oil prices, ensuring energy policy remains a central focal point for economic growth through the late 2020s.

Ultimately, navigating an era of depleted energy reserves requires active risk management. Investors, developers, and business owners can no longer assume cheap energy or rapid central bank rate cuts, making balance sheet conservatism and operational efficiency the primary defenses against future macroeconomic volatility.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

Did The Weak Jobs Report For July Change Everything, Anything, Or Nothing?

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:21:50 GMT

Summary

The July 2026 U.S. jobs report was disappointing to say the least, with a downside surprise loss of 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs and a 103,000 downward revision for May and June.
The weak labor data pushed Treasury yields lower and dropped the odds of a September Fed rate hike to 44%.
With sticky inflation and an economy that’s apparently not running on all cylinders, the report also highlights growing concerns over stagflation, an economic dirty word!
The scenario of stagflation would be one where the Fed would most definitely earn its money, as it presents significant challenges.
CPI on Wednesday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday will provide more pieces to the economic/inflation puzzle.

The July Jobs Report Was Definitely Weak, But Will It Change Anything?

August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the jobs report for July.

The report was much anticipated by many, including the financial markets, the real estate market, and everyday people like myself who have some concerns, due to inflation remaining sticky, the outcome of the war in Iran being uncertain, the economy meandering, and the great unknown being the direction the Federal Reserve will take at its next meeting.

Next up, CPI on Wednesday, August 12th

This article will look at the less-than-stellar report, and then examine other areas of the economy that may be impacted.

🔴 The Jobs Number(s) For July Missed The Mark

The U.S. economy lost 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, reversing the revised 20,000 gain in June, and came in well under the increase of 85,000 jobs that was expected.
The actual number represents a 108,000 miss to the downside that is one of the largest misses of 2026
Markets always watch for any revisions of prior months, and the BLS revised down May and June by a combined 103,000 — May was cut by 66,000 to 129,000, and June by 37,000 to 57,000
The unemployment rate moved down to 4.1% in July from 4.2%
The labor force participation rate dropped to a more-than-five-year low. This means people are dropping out of the workforce or not finding jobs, which mechanically reduces the unemployment rate
Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year-over-year, a disturbing statistic for inflationary pressure, and stayed above the Fed’s comfort level

🔴 Interest Rates, Particularly On The Short End, Dropped Significantly

Treasury yields fell sharply after the report, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury dropping 6 basis points to 4.621%, but by the end of the day it was 4.65%. The 2-year Treasury, more closely aligned with Fed rate expectations, dropped 8 basis points to 4.176%, ending the day at 4.20%. The 30-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points to 5.189%, before ending the day at 5.20%
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.65%, from 4.70% on Tuesday, is somewhat of a help for the mortgage market, but certainly not a significant move
In our Substack, we always refer to the bond market as the ‘smart money’ of the financial markets. And after the jobs report, the bond market’s verdict was the move down in yields, as a weak labor market reduces the case for further rate hikes.
Note: The bond market is called the “smart money” because large institutional investors are highly focused on interest rates, inflation, economic growth, credit risk, and government policy. Their trading provides an early signal about where they believe the economy and interest rates are headed.

🔴 Mortgage Rates…What Impact Will A Weak Job Market Have?

With the 10-year Treasury dropping toward 4.65%, the mortgage rate environment should improve modestly. The key, of course, is the mortgage spread that lenders add to that yield, which reflects many of the risks they perceive are present in the market (The Mortgage Spread, And Why 30-Year Mortgage Rates Could Be 7.50%!)
The 10-year Treasury is the driver of rates for a variety of consumer loans beyond mortgages, like credit cards and personal loans
Dollars and Cents…Each 10 basis point drop in the 10-year saves borrowers about $65 to $70 per month on a $1 million mortgage

🔴 What Impact Will This Report Have On The Fed’s Decision-Making Process?

Before the jobs report, financial markets anticipated a September interest rate hike from the Fed. After Friday’s jobs numbers, those odds fell significantly. The odds can be seen at CME FedWatch
The odds that the Fed will raise rates next month fell to 44%, while the probability of a hike by October stood at 58.3%, according to CME FedWatch.
“This morning’s report is a game changer in the sense that all of the recent focus has been on inflation and this report highlights the risks that are embedded in the labor market as well,” said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management. “Before today, many were expecting that the Fed had no choice but to raise rates to fight stubbornly high inflation, because the job market was so strong — but this report shows that isn’t the case”
Nuveen Chief Investment Officer Saira Malik said: “For the job market this is a number that’s not booming and may actually be breaking, but for the markets the two biggest areas of concern were yields and inflation. This lower number helps not reinforce the Fed’s narrative that they need to raise interest rates”
The three FOMC dissents at July’s meeting, Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, who voted for immediate hikes, become harder to justify with job losses of 23,000 and 103,000 in downward revisions
Citi has a well-out-of-consensus call for three rate cuts between now and January 2027. “While labor market data may still be described as ‘stable’ for now, we expect this to change in just a few months with the unemployment rate rising above 4.5%,” Citi economists said
A key inflation report: CPI for July is coming on August 12, and if inflation also shows signs of moderating, the case for a September hike collapses entirely. If CPI comes in hot, the Fed will face the worst of all possible scenarios…a weakening labor market AND persistent inflation, which is the textbook definition of stagflation

🔴 What’s The Impact That These Numbers Indicate For The US Economy?

A job loss of 23,000 on top of 103,000 in downward revisions means the U.S. economy has added net zero jobs in the May-July period
The employment level in 2026 has actually fallen by 833,000 year-to-date, and the unemployment rate has remained low in large part because of the decline in labor force participation, and not due to genuine job creation
The labor force participation rate is at a five-year low. This indicates that more people have stopped looking for jobs entirely, not a good sign
Are we facing the above-mentioned stagflation? The combination of job losses, persistent inflation above 4%, a 30-year Treasury at 5.21%, and oil prices still elevated due to the Iran war places the U.S. economy in stagflation territory that presents big challenges for the Fed
The hiring data comes against a complicated economic backdrop — the U.S. war with Iran continues without any agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully, and energy prices remain elevated even if off their highest levels

🔴 Consumer Confidence…A Key For Any Economy!

A negative jobs print of this magnitude can directly damage consumer confidence in the weeks ahead. And if the consumer is not confident, they do not spend on discretionary items
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey that will be released August 14, with CPI on the 12th, will provide critical information about just how excited to purchase the US consumer actually is

🔴 How Is All Of This Going To Impact Real Estate Markets?

Potential for mortgage rates to remain stable is a net positive! If the inflation number is under control, or maybe even less than expected, rates should remain stable and potentially even drop.
Jobs angst is not good: A potential buyer who just read that the economy shed 23,000 jobs in July with a 103,000 in downward revisions, whose own industry may be softening, may be less confident about committing to a $850,000 30-year mortgage regardless of what rate they can get
Possible stagflation could be the biggest problem of all! If today’s job loss data confirms a weakening labor market while inflation remains above 4%, the Fed faces an impossible choice. Hiking rates into a job-loss environment risks triggering a recession, while holding rates steady or cutting would risk inflation becoming entrenched. Either hurts real estate: a recession through falling home prices and employment losses, and inflation through permanently elevated rates
One additional risk of stagflation is the loss of any urgency to pull the trigger on a purchase, because the expectation becomes one of prices falling further in the future
The lock-in effect persists: So far, the reluctant sellers who hold 3% mortgage rates are keeping inventory low and prices high
The Nassau/Suffolk market: Prices remain extremely high, and affordability issues also remains high
The builder confidence implication: NAHB at 35 is low, and builders are typically always confident. Anecdotally, in my neighborhood new construction projects appear to be on hold

So What Does It All Mean?

Friday’s July jobs report was one data point that reduces the potential for the Fed to hike rates. The operative phrase is ‘one data point’!

While the odds of a September rate hike dropped to 44% in a matter of minutes, markets will, of course, be watching this week’s CPI release, along with a close watch on crude oil prices.

Bottom line is that the Fed is in a tough spot, with an economy that could be softening (good for lower rates), along with inflation remaining very sticky (bad for rates).

In other words, stagflation could become a major issue, an environment where the Fed hopefully knows what it’s doing!

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

The Hallmark Abstract Service Newsletter, August 7, 2026

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 14:35:23 GMT

This edition of the Hallmark Abstract Service newsletter covers three topics that New York City residents who own ‘luxury’ residential property, who fill up a car with gas or go to the supermarket, or who are looking to buy property and finance it with a mortgage, should be thinking about.

Enjoy this issue, and if you have any questions or suggestions for future topics, please let Hallmark Abstract Service CEO Mike Haltman know at mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com.

The Hallmark Abstract Service Newsletter!

If you have any questions about real estate, mortgages, title insurance, or broader market trends, let us know using the contact information above.

🔴 Another Ceasefire With Iran, And Another Whipsaw In Crude Prices And Treasury Yields

If there were any questions about the veracity of this article’s title that includes the word ‘whipsaw’, at about 7:50 AM on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, ‘there may be a deal today or Wednesday to open the Strait of Hormuz with ‘freedom of movement’.

Crude oil swiftly dropped from about $82/barrel to about $77/barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.70% to 4.66%.

Read how all of this uncertainty can impact the real estate and mortgage markets in our article on Substack here.

🔴 The Ins-And-Outs Of The NYC Pied-a-Terre Tax

The New York City law firm Coopersmith & Coopersmith has provided a comprehensive rundown of what the NYC Pied-a-Terre Tax is, who it affects, what it costs, and how a homeowner can contest it.

Now that the tax is in effect, it’s important for homeowners subject to the tax and those erroneously targeted as being subject to the tax, to learn more about their rights.

Read about the details, and get the links to the appropriate resources, in our Substack article here.

🔴 The Federal Reserve Speaks and The Markets Listen...In Spades! What Does It All Mean For You?

Last Wednesday, June 29th, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision had 9 Governors who voted to hold rates steady while 3 voted for a rate hike. The market reaction was swift and harsh, as the 30-year Treasury bond yield soared to 19-year highs and the Dow was down over 1,000 points.

It was obviously a significant event, and this article examines various sectors of the economy and how they may be impacted by the macroeconomic environment, or how certain indicators will actually impact that environment in the case of crude oil and inflation.

Read all about it in our Substack article here.

Hallmark Abstract Service...You Buy Real Estate, We Protect It!

But, How?

Are You Buying Commercial or Residential Property in New York?

When you’re signing the contract, here’s something most buyers don’t realize...

You, not the seller, not the lender, and not your attorney, have the right to choose your title insurance provider.

And the title insurance firm you choose can make all the difference in how well your investment is protected.

At Hallmark Abstract Service, we don’t just issue a policy.

With a laser-focus, we uncover risks others may miss, work to protect what may be the largest financial commitment of your life, and stand by you long after closing.

If you want to understand what truly separates one title provider from another, take a moment to read our guide:

“Due Diligence Deep Dive: How to Choose a New York Title Insurance Provider,” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate. We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

Hallmark Abstract Service

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

New York City: (646) 741-6101

Long Island: (516) 741-4723

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Japan's 10-Year Bond Yield Over 2% WAS A Big Deal! Now, We're Approaching 3%!

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Thu, 06 Aug 2026 16:43:10 GMT

As we’ve opined many times in the past, when it comes to interest rates, and by extension mortgage rates, the United States is facing some serious issues.

These include stubborn inflation, massive deficits, government debt quickly approaching $40 trillion, and severe political dysfunction in Washington (Billions and Trillions Have Lost All Meaning to Congress...And It Will Come At a Big Price!).

That Said, Does Japan’s Bond Market Actually Matter For U.S. Homebuyers?

It most definitely could, particularly as its yields continue to rise.

In December 2025 and again in January 2026, Hallmark Abstract Wonders wrote the following two articles…

Japan’s 10-Year Bond Hits 2%: Why U.S. Real Estate Investors Should Take Notice! (Poll)

Japan’s 10-Year Yield Is 2.27%...Is That A Significant Threat to U.S. Mortgage Rates?

3%

Japan's 10-year government bond is on the verge of crossing the 3%-yield threshold for the first time since 1997, marking the end of an era defined by decades of ultra-low interest rates and cheap global capital.

At the same time, the yen has been weak versus the U.S. dollar for quite some time. In 2026, the average USD/JPY exchange rate was 158.78 yen per dollar, and in late July, USD/JPY reached 163.87, meaning one U.S. dollar bought nearly 164 Japanese yen.

Last week, the U.S. and Japan had a joint, coordinated intervention effort, with Tokyo spending around ¥5.33 trillion, after reportedly carrying out a record single-day intervention worth ¥8.45 trillion a day earlier.

Why exactly is Japan struggling?

An aging population…Fewer workers, more government-paid pensions, and lower tax revenues. In addition, Japan has a birthrate problem, with a fertility rate of 1.14, when the replacement rate is 2.1 (The Birthrate Bomb: What Happens When Humanity Stops Replacing Itself?)
A huge government debt load (sound familiar?), a problem now that the interest it needs to pay is moving higher
Inflation putting upward pressure on rates
The weak yen making imports more expensive (see inflation above)
Like the Fed in America, the Bank of Japan has important decisions to make

Why Japan’s Bond Market Could Keep U.S. Mortgage Rates High

Most Americans don’t watch Japan’s 10-year government bond. But what’s happening there could have a direct impact on mortgage rates, home prices, and even the stock market here in the United States.

What’s Changing In Japan?

For many years, Japan kept interest rates very low, meaning that investors could borrow money in Japan at almost no cost and invest it in higher-paying assets like U.S. Treasury bonds, stocks, and real estate. This became known as the yen carry trade.

Now that’s changing.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield is approaching 3%, its highest level since 1997, while at the same time, Japan and the United States have been working to strengthen the Japanese yen.

These two developments are encouraging investors to bring money back to Japan instead of investing overseas.

Why Does That Matter?

Japan is one of the largest foreign owners of U.S. Treasury bonds, holding roughly $1.2 trillion.

If Japanese investors decide to buy more Japanese bonds and fewer U.S. Treasuries, demand for Treasuries falls. Unless replacement buyers can be found, Treasury yields will need to rise to attract those buyers.

Because mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, higher Treasury yields typically mean higher mortgage rates (depending on the mortgage spread of course).

The U.S. Chain Reaction?

What if…

Japan offers better returns at home.
Japanese investors keep more money in Japan.
They buy fewer U.S. Treasury bonds.
Treasury yields rise.
Mortgage rates remain higher for Americans.

That means homebuyers would pay more each month, businesses would face higher borrowing costs, the federal government’s debt refinancing costs would rise, and real estate investors could see financing become more expensive.

Watch the 2-minute video, ‘Japan Ends Its “Free Lunch”! Will U.S. Interest Rates, Mortgages, and Real Estate Feel The Impact?’, at YouTube here.

So What Does It All Mean?

What happens in Tokyo doesn't stay in Tokyo.

Japan's transition away from decades of near-zero interest rates could reshape global capital flows, reduce demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, and keep borrowing costs higher than many Americans expect.

While the Federal Reserve, inflation, and the U.S. economy will continue to drive mortgage rates, Japan's bond market has become an increasingly important piece of the puzzle. For homebuyers, homeowners, real estate investors, and anyone watching interest rates, it's another reminder that today's mortgage market is influenced not only by Washington, but by financial developments occurring around the world.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

Another Ceasefire With Iran, And Another Whipsaw In Crude Prices And Treasury Yields

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Tue, 04 Aug 2026 11:08:23 GMT

Breaking News…If there were any questions about the veracity of this article’s title that includes the word ‘whipsaw’, at about 7:50 AM, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, ‘there may be a deal Tuesday or Wednesday to open the Strait of Hormuz with ‘freedom of movement’. Crude oil dropped from about $82/barrel to about $77/barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.70% to 4.66%.

In Real Estate, Confidence Is King!

Ask any builder their view of the real estate investment landscape, and they will typically say it’s a great time to invest and build. That’s because the vast majority of real estate investors are a pretty optimistic bunch. They have to be, in order to be willing to commit both time and money to begin a project.

Over time, that optimism has paid off, with a few memorable exceptions, including 1987, 1994, and of course, the Great Financial Crisis that began around 2007.

Unfortunately, I was caught in two of those, building houses on Long Island in 1987, and as the owner of a commercial mortgage company in 2008. As the saying goes, ‘timing is everything!’

On a positive note, however, I bought my house in 1994, a very favorable market for buyers. But how about now?

Uncertainty And Making Major Financial Decisions…Or, There’s No Such Thing As a Sure Thing!

The war with Iran has been a source of economic uncertainty as oil prices have been extremely volatile, while interest rates and mortgage rates have generally moved higher.

This isn’t our first rodeo with Iran, as that country has played a significant historical role in the U.S., with an example being the 1979 revolution there that triggered an energy crisis and caused crude prices to surge.

At the time, inflation soared to 14.5%, and the Fed Chair at the time, Paul Volcker, pushed interest rates to over 20% in order to fight back, triggering a recession at the same time.

As a newly minted college graduate with a degree in economics looking to start my career, I can attest to the fact of a very weak economy!

As a general rule, inflation plus recession is the definition of stagflation, the worst possible state of the economy, devastating for consumer confidence.

Using real estate as an example of the impact stagflation can have, because at the time home prices were falling, there was no urgency for buyers to jump in.

Stagflation is the worst of all economic scenarios because it takes away that urgency to make expenditures, under the assumption that prices will come down, or at the very least not rise.

In normal economic environments not ensconced in stagflation, uncertainty will come from typical business cycles, employment trends, and/or Federal Reserve policy.

Those forces tend to move slowly and somewhat predictably. What we are dealing with today is much different. The U.S.-Iran war has introduced a new and uniquely destabilizing form of uncertainty, one that arrives at unpredictable intervals, in the form of a presidential announcement on Truth Social, and reverses everything the market thought it knew about inflation, oil prices, interest rates, and mortgage costs, within minutes or hours.

We have had five or so ceasefires announced. We have had five or so reversals. Each ceasefire has produced market repricing and each reversal has unwound it. The cumulative effect on consumer and business psychology is severe.

What Whipsaw Uncertainty Does to Consumer Psychology

Whipsaw typically serves to create decision paralysis (somewhat similar to paralysis by analysis). I saw that happen many times a day as an equity trader, where being whipsawed on one trade can create an opportunity, but often traders would become indecisive and miss the chance to reverse.

Every major consumer purchase, whether a home, a commercial building, a long-term lease, or business expenditure, requires a stable set of assumptions about the future cost of money.

A buyer evaluating a $900,000 Nassau County home needs to know, with reasonable confidence, what their monthly payment will be. When geopolitics move the 10-year Treasury yield from sub-4.0% on February 27 to 4.75% by late July, a spread that adds nearly $490 per month to a $1 million mortgage, no rational buyer can plan. So they don’t.

Each time a ceasefire is announced, and yields dip along with crude oil prices, buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines begin to move. They call their agent. They get pre-approved. They make offers. And then the ceasefire collapses, yields and crude oil spike, their pre-approval no longer covers the payment, and they are forced to withdraw.

Consumer confidence is a measure of how people feel about their future economic circumstances. When conditions swing violently based on factors entirely outside someone’s control, like a Trump tweet about a ceasefire, an Iranian missile strike, a news alert about renewed talks, the psychological feedback is that the future is not navigable. Every category of discretionary spending that depends on a stable view of the future softens when that future becomes unreadable.

The Impact on Residential Real Estate:

1. The Mortgage Rate Whipsaw Kills Affordability Planning

2. The Lock-In Effect Has Intensified

3. Builder Confidence Is at Cycle Lows And Is Not Yet Recovering

4. The Appraisal Problem

Volatile rate environments create appraisal complications that most buyers and sellers never anticipate. Comparable sales used to appraise a property were completed in a different rate environment than the one the current transaction is being financed in.

5. The Psychology of Home Prices

Sellers who watched rates briefly dip to the low 6% range in June have set their price expectations accordingly. Buyers who are now facing rates back near 6.80% are unable to meet those expectations.

The Impact on Commercial Real Estate: Three Structural Challenges

1. The Cap Rate / Treasury Yield Squeeze

2. The Lease Decision Paralysis

Businesses signing commercial leases are making 5, 7, and 10-year commitments. Those commitments require a view not just on current business conditions but on the trajectory of the economy.

3. The Refinancing Wall Meets Maximum Uncertainty

Billions in commercial mortgages originated at 3% to 4% during 2019-2022 are maturing right now. In a stable rate environment, owners of those properties would negotiate refinancing terms, adjust their business plans, and move forward. In a whipsawing rate environment, the decision is much more difficult. Do you lock in a 7% rate today and accept the pain or wait for a ceasefire that might bring rates down, knowing that the ceasefire might collapse and push rates even higher?

What About Us?

There is a second-order effect of this whipsaw environment that is seldom discussed in financial media, but that is deeply relevant to real estate specifically.

Uncertainty affects not just buyers and sellers but also the entire real estate ecosystem that supports real estate transactions, including agents, attorneys, title companies, mortgage brokers, appraisers, inspectors, contractors, and the local businesses that serve newly moved-in families.

When transaction volume falls due to decision paralysis, every participant in that ecosystem sees their income decline. Reduced income reduces their own consumer spending. Reduced consumer spending weakens the local economy. A weaker local economy makes the employment outlook less certain. It all feeds back into reduced consumer confidence.

How Do The Markets Move Forward

Simply, the buyers, sellers, tenants, and investors who make up the real estate market need confidence and clarity, that the market is heading in one direction or the other.

Looking at the roller coaster ride of interest rates and crude oil prices makes the current problem fairly clear.

Markets can handle bad news and high rates. But what markets have trouble handling, most recently delivered through the conflict with Iran, is uncertainty without end.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

The Ins-And-Outs Of The NYC Pied-a-Terre Tax...Coopersmith & Coopersmith

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 19:04:17 GMT

Back in early May, when the Pied-A-Terre tax was announced by NYS Governor Kathy Hochul and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, we published the article ‘The NYC Pied-a-Terre Tax: A $500 Million Solution, or a Billion-Dollar Mistake?’.

At the time we opined…

What Level Of Taxation, Is Too Much Taxation?
We’ve all heard the famous Margaret Thatcher quote, “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money“.
Well, it seems that the powers that be in NYC and up in Albany are pushing the taxation envelope, trying to determine at what point the wealthy (who pay the majority of taxes as it is) will have had enough and head out of town to greener and lower-tax destinations.

Now that it’s been put into effect, how does it all break down? Get all of the details below…

Coopersmith & Coopersmith

The Nitty Gritty From Coopersmith & Coopersmith

On Saturday August 1, the deadline to respond to surcharge notices was extended to September 18, 2026. The announcement is available HERE.

On May 28, 2026, New York State passed a tax on high-value residential properties in New York City that do not serve as a primary residence, colloquially known as the “pied-à-terre tax”. The intent of the law is to tax non-primary residences with a value in excess of $5M. Our original client alert about the law can be found HERE.

Taxation under this law became effective as of July 1, 2026 and will be implemented in two (2) phases. Phase 1: July 1, 2026 to June 30, 2028 and Phase 2 beginning July 1, 2028. The first phase is based upon the determination by the New York City Department of Finance (DOF) of the “market value” of any property that may be subject to the tax. As we noted in our first client alert, the DOF market value does not necessarily correlate to the free market value. A summary of the tax rate for properties subject to Phase 1 of the pied-à-terre tax can be found below:

New York City Department of Finance promulgated final regulations implementing the law on July 14, 2026. The regulations can be found HERE. On July 24, 2026, the New York City Department of Finance released a list of potential subject properties. The list of the subject properties can be found HERE.

Recently, the New York City Department of Finance began mailing letters that provide a notice of a potential non-primary residence surcharge.

Not every property owner on the list issued by the DOF is subject to the tax. Only property owners to whom DOF sent a notification by mail are required to take further action.

If you have received a letter you must respond before September 18, 2026. This deadline was extended by an announcement by Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani and Department of Finance Commissioner Richard Lee on August 1, 2026. The announcement can be found HERE.

There are two ways to contest a letter. The first is to challenge the determination as to primary residency, and the second is to challenge the market value of a property.

Contesting Primary Residency

In order to rebut a letter based on primary residency, the unit must be the primary residency of:

The owner of the unit
A tenant or subtenant
One or more individuals who collectively hold a majority interest in the limited liability company, corporation, or partnership that owns the unit
An immediate family member of the owner or majority interest holder
The sole beneficiary of a trust

In order to demonstrate that an individual is a primary resident of a property they must submit

Most recently filed federal or state tax return;

OR two (2) of the following:

Driver’s license or other DMV-issued identification;
Voter identification card;
Other proof showing that the property is a primary residence

In order to demonstrate that a tenant or subtenant is a primary resident of a property the owner must submit the following forms of evidence:

A copy of the current lease and one (1) additional rental document, such as a utility bill, proof of rent payment, or renter’s insurance policy
If there is no current lease then the owner may submit a Tenant or Subtenant Affidavit available HERE together with two (2) additional rental documents such as a utility bill, proof of rent payment, or renter’s insurance policy

In order to demonstrate that an immediate family member is the primary resident of a property the owner must submit:

Most recently filed federal or state tax return;

OR two (2) of the following:

Driver’s license or other DMV-issued identification;
Voter identification card;
Other proof showing that the property is a primary residence

AND

One (1) of the following forms of documentation of the immediate family member

Birth certificate
Marriage certificate
Immediate Family Member Affidavit Form available HERE

If a property is owned by a trust or a business entity (such as an LLC, corporation, or partnership) and is used as a primary residence by a trust beneficiary, majority member, shareholder, or partner the owner must submit:

Trust Agreement, Partnership agreement, LLC operating agreement, or articles of incorporation; and
Trustee Affidavit available HERE (if owned by a trust) or Majority Interest Affidavit available HERE (if owned by a business entity)

Contesting the Market Value

If the unit is not a primary residence, a second method to challenge the tax is by virtue of contesting the DOF’s market value of a property by virtue of an appeal to the Tax Commission. Appeals to the Tax Commission must be made on a completed TC 107 Form available HERE. TC 107 Instructions are available HERE. The deadline to file with the Tax Commission is March 1, 2027 for Co-Op and Condo units and March 15, 2027 for 1-3 family dwellings.

If you would like to discuss your specific circumstances or would like more information, feel free to contact Coopersmith & Coopersmith at (212) 625-8505.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

The Conflict With Iran Remains Hot! Why Are Crude Oil Prices Subdued?

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:48:17 GMT

Why Ask Why?

As a bond and equity trader in a prior life, one thing you learn is that when a situation seems to be trending in the opposite way you believe it should, don’t fight the tape!

A perfect example is a stock that reported bad news and, after opening lower, begins to meander towards unchanged. Understanding that we are not smarter than the market, that can be the perfect opportunity to go long the stock.

In any event, with tensions in the Middle East not abating and in some ways actually escalating, my curiosity centered this morning on why crude oil prices are remaining somewhat subdued in the face of continued Iranian drone and ballistic missile launches.

You might be wondering why I would care about crude oil prices, and the answer is that beyond my national security interests, there is also a focus on interest rates, mortgage rates, inflation, the real estate market, and the economy. Energy costs and inflation are, of course, central to all of these things.

So, doing some digging through Claude, I discovered some of the reasons why we are where we are. I asked Claude the following question:

The conflict in the Middle East seems to have the potential for expanding and bringing in other countries like Saudi Arabia into the fighting. And yet, crude oil prices have leveled off in the high $70 to low $80/barrel range. Doing a deep dive around the internet, is there a reason why crude is not reacting with a move higher, or is it that traders believe the issue will be resolved?

A Common Phrase Describing Crude Oil…Demand Destruction!

Reasons why, for the time being, crude prices are somewhat stable well below the initial panic highs…

🔴 REASON 1 — The Demand Collapse Is Staggering and Largely Unreported

Since the conflict began in late February, the world has lost roughly 11.1 million barrels per day of oil supply, or roughly 10% of global demand. That loss has drawn down global inventories to record lows, according to a team of JPMorgan strategists led by Natasha Kaneva. Yet, even as the Houthis have begun targeting vessels in the Red Sea, futures have remained far below their wartime peaks.
The reason: demand has collapsed almost as dramatically as supply. The biggest surprise was China, the world’s largest oil importer, which had slashed crude imports to the lowest in nearly a decade by June. China’s economy is slowing, its manufacturing sector is contracting, and its domestic fuel exports were curbed — dramatically reducing the world’s single largest source of marginal demand at the exact moment supply was disrupted
A recovery in world oil demand is underway, with consumption set to rise from its May nadir on seasonal trends. Annual contractions ease from 4.8 mb/d in Q2 2026 to 1.7 mb/d in Q3 2026. The demand contraction is enormous — 4.8 million barrels per day in Q2 — effectively offsetting much of the supply disruption

🔴 REASON 2 — Saudi Arabia Found an Alternative Route and Flooded the Market

This is perhaps the single most important factor. Saudi Arabia, the biggest Gulf oil exporter, sharply increased shipments from its Red Sea Yanbu port, helping to offset the loss of barrels via the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than being paralyzed by Hormuz closure, the Saudis pivoted to their Red Sea port infrastructure with remarkable speed
Saudi Arabia is simultaneously engaging in what traders are calling a potential price war — slashing its official selling prices to Asian customers and racing to maintain market share even at lower prices
OPEC+ approved another production target increase starting in August. “It is increasingly looking like the Gulf producers are gearing up for a price war,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. “They are selling into a falling market, offering little hope of an imminent price recovery.”
The brutal irony: Saudi Arabia is simultaneously being threatened by Houthi maritime embargoes tied to Iran — and yet is pumping more oil to defend market share against Iran and keep prices from spiking in ways that would damage its long-term customers

🔴 REASON 3 — Strategic Petroleum Reserves Were Released

The G7 countries, led by the United States, moved quickly to release strategic petroleum reserves when prices spiked above $100 — providing a meaningful supply cushion that capped the price rally at levels well below what analysts initially feared
Prices retreated from intraday highs following news the U.S. and other G7 countries were considering tapping strategic petroleum reserves. The mere signal of SPR releases was enough to suppress the ceiling on oil prices
The U.S. Navy escort program for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s insurance program to support shipping through the waterway, reduced the practical impact of Hormuz disruption below what raw shipping statistics suggested

🔴 REASON 4 — Hormuz Traffic Has Partially Resumed and Markets Are Pricing That Reality

Hormuz shipments briefly restarted in June, easing concerns about crude availability, but dropped again in July as the fighting resumed. The on-again, off-again nature of Hormuz traffic has created a market that prices probabilities rather than worst-case scenarios
Global oil supply rebounded by a sharp 4.1 mb/d to 98.8 mb/d in June, as a resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz underpinned a partial recovery in Gulf production.
Iran set to boost sales after a temporary reprieve from US sanctions drove down prices of physical crude oil cargoes around the world. Markets are pricing in the possibility of Iranian supply returning, not just the current disruption

🔴 REASON 5 — Traders Are Pricing Peace Probability, Not War Certainty

A pause in fighting between the United States and Iran has given oil traders hope that a diplomatic resolution could restart the flow of oil traffic out of the Middle East. Oil prices tumbled 8% Monday, on pace for crude’s biggest single-day decline since May 25. The “news” that oil markets are trading on is thin at best: The Trump administration paused plans to escalate the war. And a lack of fighting this weekend suggested that maybe the two countries could return to the negotiating table.
The oil market has repeatedly demonstrated that it will sell first and ask questions later whenever any diplomatic signal emerges — regardless of how thin or unverified that signal is
This behavior reflects the fundamental structure of oil trading: the downside from an unexpected peace deal is far larger than the upside from an unexpected escalation, so traders structurally lean toward positioning for de-escalation

🔴 REASON 6 — Non-OPEC Supply Has Surged to Fill the Gap

U.S. shale production has remained at near-record levels, with American producers capitalizing on elevated prices to drill aggressively — partially offsetting Middle East supply losses with Western Hemisphere production that has no Hormuz exposure
The IEA July 2026 Oil Market Report confirms: If transit volumes improve, oil supply will expand by 7.5 mb/d next year — the market is already pricing in a supply recovery scenario that reduces the urgency of current price spikes
Russia’s production, while sanctioned, has continued flowing through alternative channels to willing buyers — adding additional supply that the official figures understate

🔴 REASON 7 — The Recession Risk Premium Is Suppressing Demand Expectations

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia said that recent decline in oil prices reflects easing concerns over an immediate escalation between the U.S. and Iran, but cautioned that risks to global energy supplies remain elevated.
Elevated oil prices themselves destroy demand — by raising costs for consumers and businesses, they slow economic growth and reduce the very demand that supports prices. This self-correcting mechanism has been visible throughout 2026: every spike toward $110-$120 triggered demand destruction that pulled prices back
Global manufacturing PMIs have been contracting across Europe, China, and parts of the U.S. — signaling slower industrial activity and lower fuel consumption even before any additional supply disruption

🔴 REASON 8 — Saudi Arabia’s Naval Coalition Proposal Calmed Markets

Most recently — just yesterday: Oil prices fell Thursday after Saudi Arabia proposed a naval coalition to protect key trade routes as ships come under attack from Iran and its allies in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi Defense Ministry said more than 40 countries attended a meeting to discuss “strengthening maritime defense cooperation and unifying efforts to protect the security of maritime passages.”
The signal that 40+ countries are willing to defend maritime routes — rather than allow Iran and the Houthis to control them — is profoundly bearish for oil prices, as it reduces the perceived probability of a sustained Hormuz closure

Where We Go From Here

Paying close attention to daily events and how they are impacting macroeconomic conditions, or have the potential to impact those conditions, all of the reasons above as to why crude prices are remaining at current prices are valid.

However, the situation in the Middle East is incredibly dynamic, basically one action away from erupting further. Giving peace a chance is, of course, the preferable alternative, but if one thing remains crystal clear, it’s that you need two willing and somewhat trustworthy partners at the negotiating table.

Obviously, in dealing with Iran, we may not have that type of partner at the table.

So, bottom line, it appears to these eyes that extraordinary pressure seems to be building in the Middle East, and any new and significant escalation could spike oil back past $100/barrel.

But because surprises can happen, perhaps peace will break out, sending crude back to pre-conflict levels.

We will just have to wait and see.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

The Federal Reserve Speaks and The Markets Listen...In Spades! What Does It All Mean For You?

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Thu, 30 Jul 2026 15:59:36 GMT

Summary

It’s 2 PM on Fed meeting release day…At that time, I put CNBC on my office TV to find out what top-line interest rate decision the Fed has made. Yesterday, however, I was on a train coming back to Long Island from NYC and missed it.

There’s a reason why I would be intensely interested, as a rate hike, drop, or maintaining the status quo can have a direct impact on my real estate market-related business.

But often more importantly than the decision itself is the press conference given by the Fed Chair at 2:30, where they read a statement and then take questions. That is very often where the real news is made.

In any event, when I got back to my office, the DJIA was down close to 1,000 points along with similar percentage drops in the other stock market indices, and the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond yields were spiking (post-PCE release this morning, stock markets are bouncing). The 10-year yield reached a level not seen for well over a year, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a level not seen for 19-years!

So it was a significant decision, and the following article examines various sectors of the economy and how they may be impacted by the macroeconomic environment (that is extremely dynamic), or how certain indicators will actually impact that environment in the case of crude oil and inflation.

The Fed Decision, Interest Rates, Inflation, Crude Oil, Real Estate and the Economy

🔴 The Fed Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, which is the fifth consecutive meeting with no change
The three dissenting regional presidents — Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas, voted to raise rates, indicating that there is significant disagreement within the FOMC about it’s mandate of controlling inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.70% following Warsh’s press conference. The ‘smart money’ in the bond market issued its verdict on the Fed both immediately and negatively!
At the end of the day the Dow was down over 1,100 points, the S&P 500 was down 112 points, and the NASDAQ was down 430 points.
The statement also dropped forward guidance entirely leaving markets guessing about September
Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole, August 27-29, which is an event where Fed chairs have been known to signal major policy pivots

🔴 Inflation Is Still Running Hot

Headline PCE inflation has risen from 2.8% in January to 4.1% in May 2026, which was a three-year high, although this morning’s June PCE release showed a YOY PCE inflation rate of 3.7%, better than the 3.8% estimate.
The Iran conflict heated up once again, and WTI crude is back above $80/barrel.
An interesting statistic shows that a 10% increase in oil prices will raise headline PCE inflation by 0.2pp and core inflation by 0.04pp.
If the Strait of Hormuz were ever to close for an extended period of time and crude prices elevated even higher, PCE could move above 5%
For those of us involved in real estate, residential construction input prices are running 6.2% higher than a year ago. In a world that desperately needs housing, these higher costs are moving us in the wrong direction!

🔴 Crude Oil Prices Are The Great Unknown

At the beginning of the Iran war, WTI crude peaked with a high of $119.47/barrel, pushing the price of gas at the pump well over $4. That price pulled back as WTI crude fell back into the $70+ range, but last weekend in New York I paid over $4 again.
Pressure is building once again as Iran resumed sending missiles and drones at targets all over the Middle East, hitting Egypt for the first time.
It appears that the price of crude oil will be one of the most important factors affecting inflation for the foreseeable future, and that will impact the Fed, midterm elections, consumer spending and confidence, mortgage rates, Treasury yields, and the real estate market.

🔴 How Does It All Impact Mortgage Rates And Interest Rates

The 10-year Treasury yield is now at 4.67%, the highest level in more than a year. At the same time, short-term yields fell, which may indicate that there are fears about a slowing economy, or it’s simply a flight to quality.
30-year fixed mortgage rates are now running in the 6.75% range, far away from the 2023 peak over 8%, but still a significant problem for affordability.
As we have discussed in many prior articles, the 30-year Treasury above 5.2% signals that investors lending for three decades want higher compensation due to concern over long-term inflation, the level of US government debt, consistent and growing budget deficits, and dysfunction in Washington.

🔴 What’s The Impact On The Residential Real Estate Market?

Mortgage rates approaching 7% present a significant affordability issue, particularly for first-time homebuyers.
2026 appears to be the second consecutive year of declines for single-family home building. As we see in New York City, where many thousands of apartments are being held off the market, lack of inventory and high demand lead to higher and higher prices.
The lock-in effect, as mortgage rates move higher, will get even worse until some holding these low rates simply throw in the towel and move. Otherwise, homeowners sitting on 3% and 4% mortgages really have no rational incentive to sell into a high 6% mortgage rate environment, a situation that also impacts supply.
Imagine this…Nassau County’s median home price of $852,000 financed with a 7% mortgage will cost approximately $5,675 a month assuming a 20% down payment. Borrowers would need a gross household income of roughly $230,000 just to qualify.
Buyers who can buy will buy, but everyone who can wait is waiting. I face the exact issue of holding my house, or making a lateral price move somewhere else.
Builder import costs rising over 6% are yet one more factor huring confidence and limiting supply.
With the NAHB Housing Market Index at 35 (50 = neutral) builders are not particularly confident, a surprise, as having known builders for quite some time, they are typically always optimistic. Anecdotally, walking the dog around the neighborhood, I see many houses that have been bought as knockdowns months ago, just sitting behind a chain link fence.

🔴 IMPACT ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

The 10-year at 4.657% means cap rates are being compressed as the spread between CRE yields and the risk-free Treasury rate narrows. For those unfamiliar, ‘Treasury debt represents the risk-free rate for borrowers around the world, inserted into formulas like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) learned in business school’.
The refinancing Wall — Billions in commercial mortgages originated at 3-4% during 2019-2022 now need to be refinanced with much higher mortgage rates. For many borrowers, the math behind underwriting a CRE loan at these mortgage rate levels simply won’t work.
The refinancing wall is accelerating — every month of elevated rates adds more properties to the distress pipeline, particularly in office and downtown retail markets already weakened by remote work and crime
Rising construction costs, of course, impact CRE too, with development challenged at current interest rate and materials cost levels.
Do you have the proverbial ‘dry powder’? For long-term investors with money to invest, the current environment in many CRE sectors is creating genuine acquisition opportunities.

🔴 Impact On The Economy

The FOMC’s own statement acknowledged: “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce”. What does that mean exactly? Is there trouble ahead for the economy?
At the start of 2026, the consensus from economic experts was that there would be rate cuts this year. Not that economists and forecasters are typically wrong, but they certainly were this time.
Over the years, seeing dissenting votes on a Fed rate decision was more the exception than the rule. Expect that situation to remain, unless one rate direction or the other somehow becomes crystal clear.
Consumer confidence is not particularly strong given higher gas prices, higher grocery prices, higher mortgage rates, and stock market volatility. Confident people transact (i.e., buy or sell a house), while less than confident people will sit back with a wait-and-see attitude.
Got stagflation? Growth holding steady or dropping, while inflation is high. Stagflation is the hardest economic environment for the Fed to deal with!

🔴 So Where Do We Stand, And Where Do We Go From Here?

A divided Fed holding rates while inflation rises, 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5%, oil price volatility driven by geopolitical events entirely outside the Fed’s control, and a real estate market that was already strained seems to have produced the most challenging macroeconomic environment for real estate since 2008.

Unlike 2008, however, the economy is not collapsing. Earnings are mostly strong, unemployment is low, and productivity through AI is strong. we are most certainly not currently experiencing a financial crisis. Instead, we face elevated costs, limited supply of real estate, and lower levels of transactions.

What will turn this situation around? Very hard to say!

Here’s an interesting interpretation from a market analyst about yesterday’s Fed decision…Amidst all the ambiguity, one thing is clear: the trajectory of prices, not the labor market, will determine which policy scenario prevails in the short run. For now, the labor market is playing second fiddle, while inflation has first chair.”

In a confusing economic time, that statement may describe the future as well as any.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

In 2025, Wire Fraud Stole $20.8 Billion From Real Estate Transactions Like Yours!

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 10:46:37 GMT

Here’s a picture that is no longer hypothetical for homebuyers, sellers, and real estate professionals across New York.

A homebuyer on Long Island signs a contract to purchase a residential property. The closing date is approaching, and the buyer needs to wire the final cash-to-close funds, roughly $180,000, to the settlement agent’s escrow account.

Behind the scenes, a cybercriminal has gained unauthorized access to the email account of one of the real estate professionals tied to the transaction (or created an identical “spoofed” email domain, e.g., using 1 instead of l in the firm’s email address).

Forty-eight hours before closing, the buyer receives an urgent email that appears to come directly from their attorney.

The Reason Given: The email states, “Our primary escrow account is currently undergoing a routine audit / end-of-month reconciliation. Please use the updated wiring instructions below for your final funds to ensure no delay in your closing.”
The Attachment: A PDF on official-looking letterhead containing routing and account numbers for a fraudulent account managed by the scammer.

Trusting the email and anxious to avoid delaying the closing, the buyer initiates the $180,000 wire transfer at their bank.

The funds land in an account opened by a “money mule” at a domestic bank. Within minutes of arrival, the funds are moved through a series of automated international transfers and converted into cryptocurrency, making them virtually impossible to freeze or trace.

Much like the Southpark episode below…It’s gone!

Verify every detail about the wire that’s provided to you through the instructions received, but NOT by using the contact information in those instructions!

This is not a rare horror story anymore. According to the newly released CertifID 2026 State of Wire Fraud Report which analyzed data from over 1,400 real estate professionals and 1.46 million verified wire transactions, nearly 1 in 4 homebuyers received fraudulent or suspicious communications during their closing process last year. Twenty-two percent of people in the middle of one of the most significant financial transactions of their lives were actively targeted.

Total U.S. cybercrime losses reached $20.8 billion last year that was up 33% from the prior year. Real estate wire fraud is one of the fastest-growing and most financially devastating categories within that total. And the situation is getting worse, not better, for one reason above all others: artificial intelligence.

How a New York Real Estate Transaction Actually Works And Where Fraud Enters

Understanding the wire fraud threat in New York requires understanding how a New York real estate closing actually works because it is different from many other states, and those differences create specific risks.

New York is an attorney state. Unlike many states where title companies or escrow agents run the closing, in New York both the buyer and seller are represented by their own attorneys, and those attorneys along with a bank attorney (if a mortgage is obtained by the buyer) handle every financial and legal element of the transaction.

Here is how money moves through a typical New York residential purchase with a mortgage, and the steps in the chain where a cybercriminal can intervene:

Step 1 — Contract Signing and Deposit: Once the offer is accepted and attorneys negotiate and execute the contract of sale, the buyer wires the contract deposit, typically 10% of the purchase price, directly into the seller’s attorney’s IOLA (Interest on Lawyer Account) trust account. This is the first wire transfer in any New York transaction, and it is the first opportunity for fraud. A criminal who has compromised either attorney’s email can intercept communications at this stage and substitute fraudulent wire instructions before the buyer ever sends a dollar.

Step 2 — The Due Diligence and Pre-Closing Period: While the buyer secures mortgage approval and the lender orders an appraisal, both attorneys work to clear title, address any violations or liens, calculate closing adjustments for property taxes and common charges, and coordinate the closing date. This extended period of constant email communication between attorneys, agents, lenders, and buyers is a prime surveillance window for thieves where they monitor email threads to understand the transaction timeline and identify the optimal moment to strike.

Step 3 — Pre-Closing Wire of Cash to Close: In the days before closing, the buyer’s attorney advises the buyer of the exact cash-to-close amount, or the remaining balance after the contract deposit, minus the mortgage proceeds. The buyer typically wires this amount into the seller’s attorney’s IOLA account or brings certified bank checks to the closing table. This is statistically the highest-risk moment in the entire transaction. A cyber thief who has been monitoring email communications intercepts the wire instructions from the attorney and substitutes their own account details often hours or days before closing when the buyer is focused on logistics and emotionally committed to the deal.

Step 4 — The Bank Attorney and Mortgage Funding: The lender’s bank attorney arrives at the closing with the loan package. The lender has typically pre-wired the mortgage proceeds into the bank attorney’s escrow account prior to closing, pending authorization to release once all closing documents are signed and reviewed. This creates a second major wire transfer vulnerability, fraudulent payoff letters targeting the lender’s disbursement of funds.

Step 5 — Disbursement of Proceeds: Once all documents are executed, the seller’s attorney disburses funds from their trust account paying off the seller’s existing mortgage, satisfying any outstanding liens identified by the title search, paying the real estate agent commissions, title charges, recording fees, and finally wiring the seller’s net proceeds. Any of these disbursements being sent by wire is a potential target.

This is the New York closing ecosystem which includes multiple attorneys, a bank attorney, a title company, a lender, and a buyer and seller, all exchanging wire instructions across multiple email chains over a period of weeks. It is, by design, a complex, high-dollar, multi-party financial process. Which makes it an exceptionally attractive target for sophisticated cybercriminals equipped with AI tools.

AI Has Changed Everything And Most Buyers Don’t Know It Yet

There was a time when wire fraud attempts were relatively easy to spot. Typo-ridden emails. Slightly off domain names. Instructions that felt slightly wrong. Those days are over.

Since generative AI tools became widely available, business email compromise attacks have increased by 1,760%. Criminals are no longer sending sloppy impersonations. They are using AI to:

Mimic the exact communication style of your specific closing attorney, paralegal, or real estate agent down to their phrasing, sign-off, and email signature formatting, in essence making fraudulent wire instructions indistinguishable from legitimate law firm correspondence
Spoof the phone number of your attorney’s office so that when a buyer calls to confirm wire instructions, they are speaking directly to the fraudster
Clone voices convincingly enough that a phone call confirmation that has always been considered the gold standard of fraud prevention in New York transactions is no longer rtruly safe

The CertifID report found that 82% of consumers are already aware that criminals use AI to impersonate real estate professionals. What most don’t appreciate is just how sophisticated that impersonation has become. The combination of email thread hijacking, spoofed phone numbers, and AI-cloned voices has rendered traditional manual verification dangerously inadequate.

The Three Fraud Scenarios Targeting New York Transactions

The CertifID data identifies three primary fraud categories, each of which corresponds directly to specific moments in the New York closing process described above:

🔴 Buyer Cash-to-Close Fraud…30% of cases…Median Loss: $239,850
The most common scenario. Criminals compromise attorney email threads and substitute fraudulent IOLA wire instructions for the buyer’s pre-closing cash-to-close wire. First-time buyers in competitive New York markets are especially vulnerable when pressured to wire funds quickly to secure a closing date. The median loss of $239,850 represents, for most buyers, years of accumulated savings, that is gone in a single transaction.

🔴 Mortgage Payoff Fraud…20% of cases…Median Loss: $389,125
Forged payoff statements redirect the existing mortgage payoff wire sent at closing by the seller’s attorney to the seller’s lender, before anyone catches the discrepancy. In New York, existing mortgages must be fully satisfied at or prior to closing, and the title company verifies the payoff through the title search process. Fraudulent payoff letters create massive exposure for the seller’s attorney, the bank attorney, the lender, and the title search team simultaneously. This category carries the highest median loss of any fraud type.

🔴 Seller Net Proceeds Fraud…12% of cases…Median Loss: $343,497
Criminals intercept communications between the seller and their attorney during the disbursement phase of closing, substituting the seller’s legitimate bank account details with a fraudulent account for the final wire of sale proceeds. Sellers often first discover the fraud when they check their account the following business day, at which point recovery becomes a race against time.

Reputational Damage That Is Difficult To Repair

Here is the finding from this report that every attorney, agent, lender, and title professional in New York needs to read carefully.

56% of consumers said they would not work with a real estate firm or closing professional again after a wire fraud incident even if every single dollar of their funds was fully recovered.

Even when the money comes back, more than half of affected consumers will not return. In a New York market built entirely on professional relationships, attorney referrals, and client trust, where a single satisfied client can generate repeat and referral business, a fraud event does not just cost you a transaction. It costs you a client, their sphere of influence, and every referral that would have followed.

The reputational damage outlasts the immediate financial loss by years. Lost clients. Damaged referral pipelines. Online reviews. Word-of-mouth. The liability does not end when the funds are restored.

Security Has Become a Selection Criterion

The report makes something very clear that the New York real estate industry is only beginning to fully absorb: consumers are now evaluating their entire professional team through the lens of fraud protection before they sign a contract and before they wire a dollar.

68% of consumers say that guaranteed protection from wire fraud strongly influences which real estate professionals and closing partners they choose to work with.

85% of consumers said they would pay extra for verified wire fraud protection. Of those, 71% said they’d pay $51 or more.

This is a clear signal from the market that security has real monetary value to buyers and sellers, and they expect their professional team to safeguard their transaction.

Buyer and Seller Beware!

Wire fraud is not a distant risk that happens to buyers in other markets. It is happening across New York City, Long Island, and Westchester to buyers, sellers, attorneys, and lenders who did everything right, except for trusting the wrong wire instructions at the wrong moment.

The New York closing process, with its multiple of potential wire transfer touch points including contract deposit, cash-to-close, mortgage proceeds, mortgage payoff, seller net proceeds, creates more fraud exposure per transaction than most states. Every handoff is an opportunity for a sophisticated criminal to insert fraudulent instructions into a chain of communication that the buyer, seller, or attorney trusts completely.

While title companies in New York do not hold escrow or process wire transfers directly, Hallmark Abstract Service serves as a critical layer of defense in your transaction. From rigorous title search due diligence and payoff verification to proactively educating the attorneys, agents, and buyers we work with on wire fraud safety protocols, we help ensure that every element of your deal structure is as airtight as possible from the moment your file opens to the moment your deed is recorded.

Because in New York real estate, the stakes are too high and the threats are too sophisticated to leave your closing unprotected.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

Billions and Trillions Have Lost All Meaning to Congress...And It Will Come At a Big Price!

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Sat, 25 Jul 2026 11:19:01 GMT

Summary

It’s All Fun and Games Until No One Will Lend the U.S. Money Without Much Higher Interest Rates

As the old saying goes, there’s no free lunch.

There has also been an old saying that U.S. Treasury debt represents the risk-free rate for borrowers around the world, inserted into formulas like the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) learned in business school.

Of course, by definition, a risk-free product needs to provide 100% certainty that the issuing party is 100% guaranteed to provide a return of the capital invested.

However, given the credit rating downgrades that have hit U.S. government debt, the sheer size and scope of that debt load rivaling the European PIIGS, our persistent budget deficits, and dysfunction in Washington that defies belief, that risk-free moniker may be in some doubt.

In other words, has the U.S. become the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet?

THE US FISCAL SITUATION, TREASURY YIELDS, MORTGAGE RATES & REAL ESTATE

As of July 24, 2026, the 10-Year Treasury Rate is 4.69%

🔴 THE US FISCAL SITUATION…Clean-Up On Aisle 5

Gross federal debt currently stands at $39.5 trillion and is projected to reach $63.7 trillion — 136% of GDP — by 2036
The FY2026 federal deficit is projected at $1.9 trillion during what is supposed to be an economic expansion, the third highest in American history, equal to 5.8% of GDP against a 50-year average of 3.8%
The US is adding approximately $158 billion in new debt every single month, and that pace is accelerating, not slowing
Deficits are projected to eclipse $2 trillion by FY2028 and reach $3.1 trillion by FY2036, with debt surpassing its WWII-era record high of 106% of GDP by 2030
Net interest on the national debt is now the fastest-growing component of federal spending, projected to total an astounding $16 trillion over the next decade, or roughly $47,182 per American
CBO Director Phillip Swagel stated plainly: “The fiscal trajectory is not sustainable”
The Pentagon’s FY2027 budget request of $1.5 trillion would be the largest military budget in US history, and it represents a roughly 40% increase over current funding levels and arrives on top of a $200 billion supplemental request to fund ongoing military operations against Iran
At 4.6% of GDP, this defense request is nearly double the US defense budget of 2022 and more than the next 18 nations combined
The $1.5 trillion request includes $1.1 trillion in base discretionary spending and $350 billion passed through budget reconciliation requiring only GOP support
To partially offset the military increase, the White House proposed $73 billion in domestic spending cuts that target programs across climate, housing, and education
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), already signed into law, is projected to reduce federal tax revenue by $5.2 trillion over ten years, dangerous, as it compounds an already unsustainable fiscal trajectory
The bond market is not waiting for Washington to acknowledge this problem, as the ‘smart money’ is already pricing it in with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69%

🔴 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TREASURY YIELDS

The 10-year Treasury closed today at 4.69%, near its year-to-date high, and the fiscal picture above explains precisely why
Every dollar of deficit spending must be financed by issuing new Treasury bonds, and more supply with finite demand means higher yields to attract buyers
The $1.5 trillion defense budget, layered on top of the OBBBA’s $5.2 trillion in projected tax revenue reductions, means the bond market must absorb an enormous and growing volume of new issuance for years to come
Higher yields create a compounding fiscal effect…more debt requires more interest payments, which widens the deficit further, requiring even more issuance, pushing yields higher still. This is a self-reinforcing cycle with no easy exit
The Iran war and its $200 billion supplemental defense request add inflationary pressure through oil prices and supply-chain disruption, embedding an increased risk premium into long-term yields
With the FOMC meeting July 28-29 and 53% of futures markets now pricing in a September rate hike, the Fed is not signaling any near-term relief
The 30-year Treasury at approximately 5.16% is sending a clear signal that investors want yields commensurate with the risk of lending money to the US government for three decades

🔴 IMPACT ON MORTGAGE RATES

With the 10-year at 4.69%, conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rates are running in the 6.80% to 6.90% range, which are cycle highs
Every 10 basis points the 10-year moves higher adds approximately $65 to $70 per month on a $1 million mortgage or roughly $45,000 over the life of a 30-year loan
For mortgage rates to move lower will require one of three things: a decisive Fed pivot to cutting, a significant improvement in the fiscal trajectory, or a recession
Refinancing activity is essentially frozen, with millions of homeowners sitting on 3% and 4% mortgages from 2020-2021. There is of course, no incentive to refinance at 6.85%
First-time buyers face the most punishing affordability environment in decades with high prices, high rates, and limited inventory colliding simultaneously
The proposed $73 billion in domestic spending cuts target housing programs among others, and it could reduce the supply of federally subsidized affordable housing at exactly the moment when affordability is most strained

🔴 IMPACT ON THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

The lock-in effect intensifies as mortgage rates push toward 7%, and the disincentive for existing homeowners to sell grows stronger. Home inventory remains historically constrained, and prices are staying elevated despite deteriorating affordability
Transaction volume is suppressed with fewer moves, fewer listings, fewer closings. The people who need to transact are transacting; everyone who can wait is waiting
New construction is not filling the gap. The NAHB Housing Market Index remains deeply pessimistic at 35 (50 = neutral), and the 485-x program continues to suppress multifamily construction in the New York metro specifically
Commercial real estate faces a refinancing wall with billions in loans originated at 3-4% during 2019-2022 maturing into a 6.85% environment. The math frequently doesn’t work, particularly in office and retail, and distress is accumulating
Cap rates are selectively compressing against rising costs of capital
Long Island and NYC affordability, with Nassau County’s median home price of $852,000 and Suffolk’s $718,500, financed at 6.85%, is a major problem, particularly for first-time homebuyers (Are You A First-Time Homebuyer in NYC Or Long Island? How Does $1MM+ Sound?). These prices at current mortgage rates produce monthly payments that have priced a meaningful share of potential buyers completely out of the market
A bit of good news? For buyers who can qualify and are willing to act, reduced competition and potentially negotiable prices in certain segments create genuine opportunity, particularly for cash buyers or those with substantial down payments who are less exposed to the rate environment

🔴 Putting It All Together

The US fiscal situation is real, and not simply an abstract idea. It directly contributes to the price of money, and as a result, the price of every mortgage, every commercial loan, and every real estate transaction in the country.

A $39.5 trillion national debt growing at $158 billion per month, a $1.9 trillion annual deficit, a $1.5 trillion defense budget request, and a CBO warning that the fiscal trajectory “is not sustainable” all combine to guarantee that the bond market will continue demanding elevated yields as compensation for the risk of lending to a government spending far beyond its means.

Until the fiscal picture changes, and given the dysfunction and rabidly partisan politics in Washington, there is no near-term plan for that to happen.

Therefore, for the real estate and mortgage markets, 30-year mortgage rates near 6% to 7% are not an anomaly, that are very likely going to be the new normal!.

____________________________

Thank You For Visiting The Hallmark Abstract Service Substack!

And finally, if you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read our guide:

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

About the Author

NYC Landlords File Suit Against The RGB Imposed 0% Rent Increase, Calling It A Sham Process

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:00:03 GMT

Summary

A coalition of NYC property owners has filed suit against the Rent Guidelines Board’s (RGB) 0% rent freeze, calling the decision a "sham process" with a predetermined political outcome. The lawsuit highlights a stark contradiction between the board's own data which showed a 5.3% spike in operating costs, and the final vote, backed by the sudden resignation of board member Christina Smyth. While property owners argue the board illegally ignored statutory economic factors, the city maintains the RGB acted independently, setting up a major legal battle before the freeze takes effect on October 1, 2026.

Synopsis of the Path to the Lawsuit

NYC owners of rent-stabilized apartments have filed suit, claiming that ‘the New York City Rent Guidelines Board (RGB) conducted a “sham process” with a predetermined outcome to deliver on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s campaign pledge for a rent freeze.’

To find anecdotal evidence of the failures in the process of arriving at the 0% rent increase number, one need look no further than the resignation of the one independent NYC Council member, Christina Smyth, just before the vote was to take place.

Smyth was the one City Council member who Mayor Mamdani did not appoint.

In the article, NYC’s Rent Freeze Sounds Great, Until The Reality of Building Dilapidation Hits Home!’, we examined the vote, and then the data that contradicts that vote, along with all of the other policy-induced headwinds being felt by owners.

The Meat and Potatoes of the Landlord Lawsuit

From various sources, we have gleaned the basic premise of the reasons why the landlords feel the decision by the RGB and City Council was wrong, and why they plan to fight it out in court…

The core arguments are:

“Predetermined outcome” / sham process: The suits argue the board’s consideration of a freeze was a “sham” process with a predetermined result, and that the board failed to properly weigh economic conditions facing the real estate industry. This is bolstered by the fact that Mamdani appointed six of the board’s nine members earlier in the year, and one member resigned the morning of the final vote, calling the outcome predetermined. The Real Deal Altman & An LLP
Ignoring the board’s own data: The lawsuit attacks the board’s handling of its financial data — its Price Index of Operating Costs found building expenses rose 5.3%, including 11% for fuel and 10.5% for insurance, with another 4.1% increase projected. The landlords cite a calculation implying increases of 3.4% for one-year leases and 4.8% for two-year leases would have been justified, though the RGB maintains its formulas are illustrations, not binding recommendations. amNewYork
Dueling income data: Freeze supporters point to the board’s finding that net operating income rose 6.2% among buildings with at least one stabilized apartment; landlords counter that figure is skewed by buildings with market-rate units and other income, noting the same study found net operating income rose only 2.4% in fully stabilized buildings. amNewYork

Where it stands: A judge has ordered the city to present its defense in September. A spokesperson for Mamdani said the city is prepared to defend the board’s decisions, noting the RGB is an independent body. One attorney for the property owners called the freeze itself, and the process behind it, illegal and “stacked against small owners.” The freeze is still set to take effect October 1, 2026, unless a court intervenes before then. The Real Deal

Reasons the Outcome Could Go Either Way

Again, from various sources…

Reasons it could go the landlords’ way:

One attorney who reviewed the case, quoted in Commercial Observer, called it a “pretty compelling case,” pointing to what she sees as clear data showing costs outstripping income and numerous legal flaws in how the board reached its decision. Commercial Observer
Landlords’ attorney Randy Mastro argues this case differs meaningfully from the failed 2016 lawsuit: that earlier suit turned on whether the board could consider tenant affordability at all, whereas this one argues the board considered affordability in an arbitrary way that excluded other required factors. The Real Deal
The specific evidence around the board member’s resignation letter and alleged political packing of the board is a more concrete “process” argument than past challenges had.

Reasons it could fail, following precedent:

A previous landlord challenge against the 2016 de Blasio-era rent freeze failed in court, with judges ruling that officials could consider tenant affordability as long as the process remained rational and balanced. CRE Daily
In that 2016 case, a Manhattan judge dismissed the landlords’ lawsuit about a year after it was filed. Courts have historically been deferential to the RGB as an “independent body,” and City Hall is leaning on that same framing now. Reason Magazine
The city’s plan is to defend the board’s independence directly, per a mayoral spokesperson. The Real Deal

____________________________

If you’re buying real estate in New York...

…You need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another. Take a moment to read the Hallmark Abstract Service guide...

Read “In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here https://open.substack.com/pub/hallmarkabsservice/p/in-new-york-do-your-due-diligence?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101

The Hallmark Abstract Service Newsletter, July 22, 2026

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:10:58 GMT

Construction Workers, Homeless Encampments, and Another Dagger In The Heart Of NYC Landlords

This edition of the Hallmark Abstract Service newsletter covers three topics that every New York City real estate professional, and resident or visitor, should be thinking about.

First, we examine the pros and cons of hiring union and non-union labor for NYC construction jobs in light of the collapse at the Pfizer Building on 42nd Street.

Then, we take a look at the new record highs in NYC apartment rental prices, coupled with a decline in quality of life as evidenced by the 12-block homeless encampment that sprang up near the Intrepid Museum..

And finally, the Mamdani administration has issued a ‘Rental Ripoff Report’ that features 23 proposals that have the stated purpose of ‘correcting a deep economic imbalance where New Yorkers are “paying too much in rent and getting too little in return”.

Read more, including links to the stories, in our newsletter below…

The Hallmark Abstract Service Newsletter!

If you have any questions about real estate, mortgages, title insurance, or broader market trends, let us know using the contact information below.

🔴 Scabby the Rat, The Pfizer Building, And The Pros And Cons of Union And Non-Union Labor

Anyone in NYC walking past a major construction project using non-union labor has likely seen ‘Scabby the Rat’ hanging around outside.

The recent collapse at the Pfizer Building office-to-residential conversion has ignited the union/non-union labor debate.

Read about the pros and cons of each at Substack here.

🔴 NYC Living...Rents Continue To Rise While Affordability Declines, And Quality Of Life Slips

Manhattan median rent just hit an all-time high of $5,295 a month.

At the same time, a twelve-block homeless encampment has risen and taken over the sidewalks of Hell’s Kitchen right by the Intrepid Museum, a popular tourist attraction.

It’s a tale of one city, with two very distinct realities.

So, with both affordability and quality of life getting worse at the same time, does something have to give?

Read more in our Substack article here.

🔴 The Mamdani ‘Rental Ripoff Report’...Another Dagger In The Heart Of NYC Landlords?

Released on July 16th, the stated purpose of the Rental Ripoff Report is ‘to correct a deep economic imbalance where New Yorkers are “paying too much in rent and getting too little in return”.

The proposals in the report caused us to ask a question we have asked before... Does the Mamdani administration have a long-term strategy to push distressed private buildings into city ownership?

Read about the 23 proposed changes in our Substack article here.

__________________________________________________________

Hallmark Abstract Service...You Buy Real Estate, We Protect It!

But, How?

Are You Buying Commercial or Residential Property in New York?

When you’re signing the contract, here’s something most buyers don’t realize or even think about...

You, not the seller, not the lender, and not your attorney, have the right to choose your title insurance provider.

And the title insurance firm you choose can make all the difference in how well your investment is protected.

At Hallmark Abstract Service, we don’t just issue a policy.

With a laser focus, we uncover risks others may miss, work to protect what may be the largest financial commitment of your life, and stand by you long after closing.

If you want to understand what truly separates one title provider from another, take a moment to read our guide:

“Due Diligence Deep Dive: How to Choose a New York Title Insurance Provider,” here.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate. We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

Hallmark Abstract Service

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

New York City: (646) 741-6101

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Scabby The Rat, The Pfizer Building, And The Pros and Cons of Union And Non-Union Labor

Hallmark Abstract Wonders! — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 13:49:40 GMT

Scabby The Rat…A fixture around non-unionized NYC construction projects

Summary

Anyone walking past a New York City construction site using non-union labor has likely spotted "Scabby the Rat”. After the recent structural incident at the Pfizer Building office-to-residential conversion project, the debate around union versus non-union labor has resurfaced. Is union labor inherently safer and higher quality, or does non-union labor offer necessary cost efficiency and flexibility? This article provides a breakdown of the pros and cons of each type of worker.

Who Is Scabby the Rat?

You could say that Scabby sits directly in the middle of the debate between a developer or contractor choosing to use non-union workers on a NYC construction site vs. the decision to use union workers.

The purpose of the 20’ tall rodent pictured here is to shame the contractors using non-union workers, make the general public more aware of the issue, and to highlight the union’s fight for better pay and safer conditions for all construction workers.

The Pfizer Building Construction And Non-Union Labor…

First, just what went wrong? Well, I suppose it depends who you ask!

The incident was caused by a ‘failure to install crucial steel reinforcing plates on support columns on the 21st and 22nd floors. This omission caused the unreinforced columns to buckle under the weight of the building’s upper floors.’

According to reports, the office-to-residential construction site at the Pfizer Building in Manhattan was an ‘open-shop ’ that was apparently using a majority of non-union workers. An exception to that was specialty trades such as steamfitters.

Ultimately, whoever or whatever was at fault, the Pfizer Building accident resulted in the emergency evacuation of at least nine neighboring buildings and forced multiple streets to be closed, including East 43rd Street between Second and Third Avenues.

Because I certainly do not have the knowledge, expertise, or access to determine whether this ‘accident’ was caused by having non-union labor on the job, instead I wanted to look at the general pros and cons of having both union and non-union workers on a job site…

Union Or Non-Union Construction Workers…The Pros And Cons Of Each

Once again, because I don’t have the expertise to know specifically whether one type of workforce is better than another, I asked Google AI to do a deep dive into the subject and develop a bullet-point list of pros and cons for each. Here it is…

What are the pros and cons of union workers, and what are the pros and cons of non-union workers?

Union Labor

Pros:

Higher Skill Levels: Workers complete rigorous, multi-year apprenticeship programs.
Better Safety Records: Specialized training leads to fewer on-site accidents.
Predictable Staffing: Unions quickly supply large numbers of qualified workers.
Stronger Labor Peace: Collective bargaining agreements prevent sudden strikes.
Enhanced Reputation: Projects often face less political and community resistance. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Cons:

Higher Labor Costs: Wages and benefit packages are significantly more expensive.
Rigid Work Rules: Strict jurisdictional boundaries prevent workers from doing multiple tasks.
Less Scheduling Flexibility: Overtime, shifts, and holiday schedules have costly restrictions.
Complex Administrative Burden: Developers must navigate intricate collective bargaining contracts. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Non-Union Labor

Pros:

Lower Direct Costs: Base wages and benefits are generally lower.
Cross-Utilization of Workers: Employees can easily perform multiple different tasks.
Flexible Scheduling: Scheduling shifts and overtime hours is much simpler.
Direct Management Control: Developers negotiate directly with individuals or contractors. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Cons:

Variable Skill Levels: Worker training and experience vary widely.
Higher Safety Risks: Industry data shows higher rates of safety violations.
Labor Shortage Exposure: Finding specialized talent during construction booms is difficult.
Potential Public Backlash: Projects may face protests, boycotts, or political scrutiny. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

The Follow-Up Question: Which Is ‘Better’?

Analyzing the list of the two types of construction workers and construction jobs, and your pros and cons of each, does any answer concerning which one is better suited for a construction site in terms of safety and quality of output stand out?

Here is the answer, courtesy of Google AI:

Yes, when prioritizing safety and quality of output, union labor stands out as the stronger option based on industry data.

Why Union Labor Stands Out

Rigorous Training Infrastructure: Unions run standardized, multi-year apprenticeship programs combining thousands of hours of classroom and on-the-job training. Non-union training is often less structured and varies by contractor. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Lower Injury Rates: Studies consistently show union sites have fewer safety violations and lower injury rates due to mandatory, specialized safety certifications (like OSHA-30) and dedicated safety stewards. [1, 2, 3]
Specialized Craftsmanship: The depth of union training generally translates to a higher, more consistent standard of work, which reduces costly defects and structural re-work.

While the answer appears to be quite clear, rest assured that Scabby the Rat will continue showing up at construction sites around New York City and elsewhere.

____________________________

You are buying property in New York...Congratulations!

Rest assured that the ‘quality of output’ question posed above does not apply to Hallmark Abstract Service!

But now that you’re buying, you need to understand what separates one New York title insurance provider from another.

It’s your right to choose your title insurance provider, and title insurance protects what could be the largest financial commitment of your life!

Take a moment to read the Hallmark Abstract Service guide...

“In New York, Do Your Due Diligence When It Comes to Title Insurance!” here https://open.substack.com/pub/hallmarkabsservice/p/in-new-york-do-your-due-diligence?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web.

When you’re ready, we’re here to help.

Hallmark Abstract Service

You Buy Real Estate….We Protect It.

Michael Haltman, CEO

mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com

(646) 741-6101